Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a one-sided game between these two teams to open this series last night, with just seven total runs scored - all coming from the Padres. While I look for San Diego to turn in another fine showing at the plate, I think Colorado can help us along in terms of getting 'over' the low total on Tuesday as well. These same two pitchers, Austin Gomber and Blake Snell, matched up last week in Colorado with the Rockies prevailing by a 3-2 score but I expect a different story to unfold here. Gomber has already logged a lot of innings in his first year with the Rockies and we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy play out. In four road outings, Gomber has posted an ugly 7.56 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, averaging just five innings per start. That opens the door for the Rockies dreadful bullpen to potentially be forced into extended duty on Tuesday, noting that unit entered last night's action sporting a collective 9.39 ERA over their last seven games. Gomber continues to struggle with his command having posted a walk rate north of 12% while also giving up a ton of fly balls, to the tune of a 30.9% fly ball rate - more than 7% higher than the MLB average. Blake Snell has had his own issues with command, also recording an inflated walk rate - a staggering 15.2%! Snell has been terrific here at home, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but averaging less than five innings per start. It's certainly worth noting that the Rockies have gone 6-4 against left-handed starting pitching (compared to 9-23 against righties). Colorado is hitting .282 against southpaw starters this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. There are a number of factors that lead me to believe we're in for a high-scoring affair in Anaheim on Monday night. The Indians will certainly be eager to bring an end to their three-game skid and get back on track at the plate. This looks like an ideal spot to do just that against a poor Angels pitching staff. Patrick Sandoval will get the start for Los Angeles on Monday - his first of the season after being used as a long reliever. Sandoval has yet to figure it out at the big league level, posting a career 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. In 7 1/3 innings of relief duty this season he has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably north of the MLB average. He's struggled to keep the ball in the park throughout his career, posting an ugly 5.3% home run rate, which is 1.8% higher than the MLB average. Rookie Sam Hentges will counter for Cleveland. He was never able to perform particularly well at the minor league level and now his struggles have carried over to the big leagues as well. Opponents are hitting .316 off of Hentges in 13 2/3 innings this season and he's posted a 32.6% fly ball rate and 6.4% home run rate. He was bailed out time and time again by the Cubs in his last start but I don't think he'll be so fortunate here. Both teams possess struggling bullpens. The Indians got off to a great start in that department this season but have taken a negative turn lately. Meanwhile, the Angels 'pen has been awful from the drop here in 2021. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. | |||||||
05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Orioles bats finally woke up and disposed of the A's 8-4 in yesterday's contest, their second straight victory to open the series. I expect to see plenty of offense on Sunday as well as the A's look to punch back against Bruce Zimmermann. We're starting to get a better picture of what to expect from Zimmermann at the big league level after he pitched just seven innings in 2020. Here in 2021 he has worked 25 1/3 innings with opposing hitters batting a collective .320 against him. He has recorded a 44.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB averages. Zimmermann isn't missing many bats with a 16.2% strikeout percentage not to mention a 30.6% line drive percentage. While the A's have been slumping offensively I do think they can break out against the O's left-hander today. Sean Manaea will get the nod for Oakland. He got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over his last couple of starts. While he has recorded a stellar 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season, he has feasted on slumping lineups including Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay in his last three starts. The O's certainly showed signs of busting out with an eight-run performance yesterday (every player in their lineup recorded a hit). Noting that Manaea owns a career hard-hit ball percentage nearly 5% higher than the MLB average, including a 45.2% mark last season, I believe some regression is in order in coming starts. The 'under' is 3-2 in this matchup so far this season but the 'over' has still cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in the series. The 'over' is also 9-7 in all A's home games this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Indians and White Sox square off in the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians. While he has held opposing hitters to a collective .220 batting average in 16 2/3 innings of work this season, he hasn't pitched well by any stretch. Note that he has recorded a 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 94.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. McKenzie has posted a ridiculously low 10.8% ground ball percentage and 40.5% line drive percentage so it should only be a matter of time before that opponents' batting average starts creeping up. The White Sox will welcome the opportunity to face someone other than Tribe ace Shane Bieber here, noting that they've scored at least eight runs in four of their last eight games overall. Lance Lynn will get the start for Chicago. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I am high on Lynn. With that being said, there is some reason for concern here. Note that Lynn has recorded a 41.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average - while also posting a 29.2% fly ball percentage - nearly six percent higher than the MLB average. Lynn's strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down but we're talking about a very small sample size through just three starts (I realize that goes for all stats mentioned here). We have seen the Indians offense come to life a little bit lately, scoring five runs or more in four of their last five games overall. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series save for last night's 'over' result, and I'm anticipating another well-pitched game in Sunday's series finale. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Padres. He of course grabbed headlines a couple of weeks ago by throwing the first no-hitter of the season. While he suffered a bit of a letdown in his next start against his former team, the Pirates, he has bounced right back since and checks in sporting some terrific numbers through four starts this season. Musgrove has done a terrific job of keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing ground balls, recording a 51.9% ground ball percentage and 17.3% fly ball percentage this season. While we're bound to see some regression to the mean at some point as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .124 batting average, I will point out that Musgrove does own better than MLB average career numbers in terms of home run, strikeout and walk percentage. Here, he faces a Dodgers club that has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games, topping out at five over that stretch (in last night's game). Dustin May will counter for Los Angeles. Remember, he finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but for now is overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the Dodgers stacked rotation. May is off to a fine start here in 2021. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opponents to a collective .217 batting average. While he has posted a worse-than-average hard-hit-ball percentage of 42.1%, I'm not overly concerned as he's inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 50.8% ground ball percentage and 15.8% fly ball percentage. The Padres scratched together six runs in Friday's victory but have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MLB National League Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Reds yesterday and I'm confident we'll see them do plenty of damage at the plate again on Friday night in Atlanta. The question is whether they'll be able to keep pace with the Braves, who are in good position for a bounce-back performance offensively against Luke Weaver of the D'Backs. Weaver had an awful spring and he's struggled in the early going in the regular season as well. In 16 2/3 innings of work, Weaver has recorded a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 93.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher and that has held true so far this season as he's posted a 30.0% ground ball percentage (compared to the 43.5% MLB average). While Weaver's walks are down, his home runs allowed are up significantly as he's been tagged for an average of around one every four innings so far this season. The Braves got off to a slow start at the plate this season and were held down in a well-pitched series against the Yankees in New York earlier this week, but do check in having scored at least five runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Like Weaver, he had an awful spring and has been hit hard in the early stages of the regular season as well. Ynoa has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. While his strikeouts are up considerably and his walks are way down compared to last year, we're dealing with such a small sample size that some regression to the mean is almost certainly in order. While not much was expected from the D'Backs this season, they've been on quite a tear offensively, scoring five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 in the Braves last 13 games as a home favorite priced -150 or higher with those games averaging 12.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-20-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Tuesday as the Brewers send the second of their two-headed top of the rotation monster to the hill in Corbin Burnes against Chris Paddack of the Padres. Burnes finished sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and after a lights out spring, he's been even better through his first three regular season starts, posting a miniscule 0.49 ERA and 0.22 WHIP. The advanced stats are arguably even better for Burnes as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .067 batting average to go along with a 48.4% strikeout percentage and 1.6% home run percentage. He has yet to issue a walk in 18 1/3 innings of work. Needless to say, Burnes has kept opposing hitters off balance, recording a 26.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 56.7% ground ball percentage. It's hard to say how much run support Burnes will receive here, however, as the Brewers are still without two of their best hitters in Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. They'll be facing Padres starter Chris Paddack who had a miserable spring but has seemingly turned it around quickly here in the regular season. While Paddack's strikeouts are down and his walks are up, he's yet to allow a home run and has recorded a 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.5% ground ball percentage and an 18.6% fly ball percentage. As I mentioned, the Brewers are undermanned offensively right now so Paddack won't have to be perfect on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The opener of this series between the Blue Jays and Red Sox features two underrated starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Hyun-Jin Ryu will take the ball for Toronto. He's a bonafide ace but I'm not sure he gets the respect he deserves as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The Blue Jays are paying him $20M per season for a reason and he's off to another fine start here in 2021. Remember, Ryu finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 19th in N.L. MVP voting two years ago and then finished third in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 13th in A.L. MVP voting last season. While we're talking about a very small sample size, Ryu is trending toward a career-best in terms of exit velocity off opposing bats, line drive percentage and ground ball percentage. For his career, Ryu is better than the MLB averages in virtually all of the key advanced stats we like to look at it, considerably so when it comes to many. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Just two years ago, he finished sixth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Rodriguez is off to a fine start here in 2021, recording a 30.0% strikeout percentage and 2.5% walk percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. He has also posted a terrific 29.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.5 mpg exit velocity off opposing bats. The Red Sox exploded for 11 runs in yesterday's win over the White Sox but prior to that had been held to four runs or less in five of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have scored five runs or less in five straight games and a grand total of two runs in their last two contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. When we last saw the Angels they were busting out of a two-game slide, scoring 10 runs in a rout of the Twins on Friday night. Covid protocols derailed the rest of that series, however, but they return to the field to host the division-rival Rangers on Monday night. Texas has seen the 'under' cash in its last two games and will send Kohei Arihara to the mound on Monday. He had a fine spring and has held up well through three regular season starts as well, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Arihara isn't going to miss many bats, with a 12.3% strikeout percentage so far but he also won't hand out a lot of free passes, recording a miniscule 1.8% walk percentage in his first 14 2/3 big league innings. Opponents have hit .255 against Arihara but he's allowed just a single home run to date. We're higher on Angels starter Dylan Bundy than most. He quietly got his career back on track with a solid 2020 campaign, his first with the Angels, that saw him finish ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He's picked up right where he left off here in 2021, limiting opposing hitters to a .211 batting average while posting above-average numbers in both strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Bundy has also been better than the MLB average in both hard-hit ball percentage (32.0%), exit velocity off opposing bats (87.0 mph) and line drive percentage (18.0%). Now he faces a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .212 against right-handed starters this season. Note that the 'under' has gone 49-26 with an average total of just 8.2 runs when Texas plays with the total set at 9.0 or 9.5 over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. I can't help but think White Sox starter Lucas Giolito is thinking Cy Young or bust this season after finishing top-seven in award voting in each of the last two seasons. He's off to a tremendous start through three outings this season with his strikeout percentage up and his walk percentage and home run percentage down compared to a still-stellar 2020 campaign. Opponents hit just .184 against him last season and they're batting a paltry .143 against him this season. We've also seen Giolito record a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage, well south of the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 in Giolito's last 20 starts with the moneyline price set between +125 and -125 as is likely to be the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 6.7 runs. Nathan Eovaldi will counter for Boston. He's an underrated big league starter in my opinion and is certainly off to a solid start this season. Eovaldi has recorded a very impressive 31.9% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 63.8% ground ball percentage ranks near the top of the majors. While his walks are up through three starts, that doesn't mean a whole lot when you consider he posted a stellar 3.5% walk percentage in 2020. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-18-21 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The A's have had their way with the Tigers in this series and while that should continue on Sunday afternoon, I believe there's value backing the 'under' as Detroit starter Matt Boyd is deserving of respect in the midst of a strong start to the season. Boyd's offseason work was well-publicized entering the 2021 campaign and so far all of that work has paid dividends as he's been terrific through three starts, posting solid numbers across the board in the majority of the key advanced stat categories we look at. Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Boyd's walks are down while he's recorded a stellar 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph opponents exit velocity, not to mention a 19.0% fly ball percentage. If you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I've been higher than most on A's starter Chris Bassitt, who is admittedly off to a slow start to the season after finishing top-10 in A.L. Cy Young Award voting a year ago. We did see signs of Bassitt turning things around as we cashed with him against the D'Backs in his last start. His walks and home runs allowed are up while his strikeouts are down but he has held opponents to a .246 batting average and has posted respectable numbers in terms of hard-hit ball, ground ball and fly ball percentages. Against a light-hitting Tigers club that is without veteran Miguel Cabrera, look for further progression from Bassitt today. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of their series last night in Seattle. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Zack Greinke squares off against Chris Flexen. Greinke has done an excellent job keeping opposing hitters off balance so far this season, recording a 32.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mpg exit velocity. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks and home runs allowed are up but I certainly expect improvement from the veteran right-hander in those departments moving forward. It's not as if the Mariners have been tearing the cover off the baseball this season, hitting a collective .222 at Safeco Field this season. Chris Flexen has been good but certainly not great through two starts with the Mariners but it is encouraging that he has issued 'only' four walks in 10 innings of work as command, or lack thereof, was a big reason why the Mets were willing to cut him loose. He did a better job of avoiding walks during the spring and that seems to have carried over into the regular season. Of course, Flexen catches a break here with the Astros missing Bregman, Altuve and Alvarez due to Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Reds v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw the Giants long eight-game 'under' streak come to an end in last night's 7-6 victory over the Reds. Now I look for them to post a second straight 'over' result as they wrap up their series with the Reds on Wednesday afternoon. Tyler Mahle will take the ball for Cincinnati. He got in very limited work during Cincinnati's exhibition schedule in March and didn't fare well. He's held his own through two regular season starts but there is still some reason for concern entering Wednesday's outing. Note that we're dealing with small sample sizes when talking about Mahle's opponents' batting average going back to the start of last season. In 2020, opponents hit just .198 off Mahle while they've hit a poor .129 against him through two starts here in 2021. However, he allowed three home runs in 5 2/3 innings of work during Spring Training and has already posted a 5.4% home run percentage this season. Note that he's been worse than the MLB average in that department over the course of his career (4.0%). Mahle has also posted an ugly 16.2% walk percentage this season - again, a category where he's worse than the MLB average over the course of his 4+ year MLB career. With the Giants showing signs of life at the dish last night I think we'll see some carry-over effect against Mahle today. Veteran Johnny Cueto will counter for San Francisco. He's generally been on the decline since a stellar 2016 campaign that saw him make the All-Star Game and finish sixth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 26th in N.L. MVP voting. While Cueto's ERA and WHIP are stellar through two starts, he has actually recorded a poor 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 33.3% line drive percentage, which in my opinion means he's been a bit lucky to this point. Note that Cueto has yet to give up a home run through two starts after having posted home run percentages of 3.3% or higher in each of the last four seasons (the MLB average is 2.8%). I certainly wouldn't expect his 25.9% strikeout percentage to continue having recorded a high of 20.2% over his last three seasons. Note that we've now seen seven of the last nine meetings in this series go 'over' the total following last night's 13-run outburst. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins rallied for a 5-3 extra innings victory to open this series in Atlanta last night, compounding the Braves sluggish start to the season. While we saw signs of life over the weekend, the Braves still aren't hitting with much consistency and I believe that helps set us up well with the 'under' on Tuesday night. Pablo Lopez will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been quietly consistent over the course of his 3+ year big league career, getting marginally better with each passing season. Lopez improved in both strikeouts per nine innings and home runs allowed per nine innings last season, recording a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Through two starts this season, covering a span of 11 2/3 innings, he's been better than the MLB average in most key advanced stat categories. Opposing hitters are batting just .132 against him. Of course, we can anticipate some regression moving forward but we don't need him to be perfect to help keep this one 'under' the total on Tuesday. That's largely due to the fact that I'm anticipating a strong performance from Braves starter Max Fried. Like the rest of his team, Fried is off to a tough start this season, recording a 9.00 ERA and 2.43 WHIP through two starts, spanning just seven innings of work. Keep in mind, Fried finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and 18th in N.L. MVP voting last season and had a terrific spring, posting a 1.38 ERA 0.77 WHIP in 13 innings pitched. We can certainly anticipate him turning things around sooner rather than later. Note that the Marlins have scored three runs or less in eight of nine games this season (excluding extra innings). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Angels are still licking their wounds following Saturday's 15-1 beatdown at the hands of the Blue Jays (we lost with the 'under' in that game). I expect a much lower-scoring affair on Monday as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Dylan Bundy will take the ball for the Angels. He was in desperate need of a change of scenery after a tough stretch with the Orioles from 2018-2019 in which he went 15-30 with an ERA hovering around five. He bounced back with the Angels in 2020, finishing ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting while posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Bundy will already be making his third start here in 2021 and he's held his own so far, limiting opposing hitters to a .217 batting average while recording impressive 13.3% line drive and 46.7% ground ball percentages. Here, Bundy will face a Royals club that is coming off an extra innings victory over the White Sox yesterday but has been held to four runs or less in five straight games since exploding out of the gates against a bad Rangers pitching staff to open the season. Brady Singer will counter for Kansas City. He finished eighth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 season. He was roughed up in his 2021 debut against the Rangers but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Note that Singer posted excellent numbers across the board during his rookie campaign. While he was chased early from his first start this season he still managed to record impressive 10% line drive and fly ball percentages, not to mention a 70% ground ball percentage after excelling in those three categories last year as well. While the Angels do possess a potent lineup, I do feel they're in for some regression at the dish and we saw signs of that as they struggled to get to Blue Jays starter Steven Matz on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Monday. The Nationals have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games overall which is perhaps not all that surprising considering they're coming off a series against the pitching-strong Dodgers over the weekend. There is reason for optimism that we'll see the Nats' lineup break out sooner rather than later though. Victor Robles enters this series riding a three-game hitting streak. Trea Turner was 4-for-8 at the dish over the last two games. Juan Soto is Juan Soto and was 4-for-8 including two home runs in the first two games against the Dodgers prior to yesterday's 0-for-4 day. Ryan Zimmerman was also 4-for-8 in the first two against L.A. before running into Clayton Kershaw yesterday. You get the picture. There is concern for the Nats' here though as starter Erick Fedde has yet to really figure things out at the big league level. Since breaking into the majors back in 2017, opposing hitters have batted a collective .283 against him. That's not to mention his career 43.6% hard-hit ball percentage - well north of the MLB average. In his 2021 debut last week opposing hitters posted a 91.9 mph exit velocity, certainly a concern as he prepares to face a dangerous Cardinals lineup that will be in a foul mood off consecutive losses against the Brewers over the weekend. John Gant will counter for St. Louis. He has got in limited work over the last couple of seasons. He was good but not great in his season debut against a light-hitting Marlins club. Note that Gant has posted worse than MLB average hard-hit ball and line drive percentages over the course of his career. He's always had issues with his command, with a career 11.6% walk percentage and while the Nats' have been struggling at bit at the plate, they're more than capable of punishing Gant for his mistakes tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Indians bats woke up and delivered an 11-run performance in last night's blowout win. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance on Sunday, however. Keep in mind, prior to last night's game, the Indians had scored just eight runs combined over their last three games. Tigers starter Jose Urena didn't fare well in his season debut last week as he got lit up by the Twins at Comerica Park. There's a reason the Marlins stuck it out for six seasons with Urena and why the Tigers are paying him north of $3 million dollars here in 2021. This is a matchup he can handle against a very average Indians lineup. Logan Allen was effective over five innings in his first outing of the season for the Indians. He'll be facing a Tigers club that boasts one of the weakest offenses in baseball, having topped out at six runs this season, scoring four runs or less in six of eight contests to date. Both bullpens should have virtually all hands on deck after last night's lopsided game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 1-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a bit of an overreaction in the betting marketplace to the Blue Jays playing their home games in hitter-friendly Dunedin this season with the totals being set at 10 or higher in all three games in this series so far. The Blue Jays still aren't hitting so if they're going to snap their four-game skid on Saturday night, they're likely going to need to get some solid pitching from their staff, led by newly-acquired Steven Matz. Matz pitched well in his season debut, picking up where he left off after a solid spring. Note that the 'under' has gone 36-17 when Matz takes the ball off a team loss over the course of his career with those games producing an average total of 7.7 runs. I would expect some regression from the Angels offense here after it scored 14 runs in the first two games of this series. Veteran starter Jose Quintana takes the ball for Los Angeles, noting that the 'under' has gone 75-44 when he starts following a team win over the course of his career with those contests totaling an average of just 8.1 runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. This is a rematch of a Phillies 4-0 victory last weekend and I'm anticipating another low-scoring contest on Friday night in Atlanta. Zack Wheeler will once again take the ball for the Phillies. He finished 12th in N.L. Cy Young award voting last season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2021. Wheeler allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings against the Braves last week, striking out 10 along the way. He is above average in nearly all of the key advanced pitching stat categories, most notably allowing a 2.2% home run percentage and a 34% hard-hit ball percentage over the course of his career, both considerably better than the MLB averages. The same goes for Braves starter Charlie Morton. That's even more impressive when you consider how poorly he performed early in his career. Morton owns a career 35.5% hard-hit ball percentage, a 52.7% ground ball percentage and a staggering 18.9% fly ball percentage. He has recorded a strikeout percentage of at least 24.7% in each of the last five seasons, much higher than the MLB average of 20.2%. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-4 the last 20 times the Phillies come off three or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 7.5 runs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. Both of today's starters are coming off uncharacteristically poor season debuts last week but I'm confident we'll see both get on track here today at Wrigley Field. Brandon Woodruff lasted only four innings in his first start against the Twins, struggling with his command throughout. Keep in mind, he's gotten better with each passing season and last year posted a 3.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Through his four-year big league career he's been above average in virtually all of the key advanced stat categories and I'm confident he'll bounce back against a Cubs lineup that has yet to really get going this season. Kyle Hendricks finished ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Even though he lasted only three innings in his 2021 debut, it's not as if he was hit hard. In that outing he posted a 22.2% hard-hit ball percentage, an 11.1% line drive percentage and an impressive 77.8% ground ball percentage. Like the Cubs, the Brewers are still struggling to score runs with consistency this season. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 in Woodruff's last seven starts against opponents that own winning record, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 runs. The 'under' is also 16-5 in the Brewers last 21 road games against right-handed starters, with those contests totaling just 6.9 runs on average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the opener of this short two-game set in Oakland last night as the Dodgers offense jumped ahead early and tacked on more offense late to push the game 'over' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Tuesday, however, as the A's look to earn some quick 'revenge' while Dodgers former ace (and now number-two guy behind Walker Buehler) Clayton Kershaw tries to bounce-back from a brutal Opening Day start in Colorado. Kershaw certainly wasn't at his best against the Rockies last time out, missing very few bats over the course of 5 2/3 laborous innings. Kershaw has been here before, though, with doubters coming out of the woodwork in droves. I'm confident we'll see him respond with a strong performance tonight - it helps that he's facing an A's club that hasn't hit well at all during an 0-5 slide to open the season. Chris Bassitt will counter for Oakland. He quietly finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting during a Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. Bassitt has seen his walks per nine innings decrease in each of the last three seasons, not to mention the fact he's given up less than 1.0 home run per nine innings in two of those three campaigns. He worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 of 11 regular season starts last season and while he wasn't at his best in his first start this season, he still managed to give the A's 5 1/3 innings, allowing just three earned runs against a red hot Astros offense. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a miserable start this season after getting swept in a four-game series against the division-rival Astros. While I'm not ready to take a flyer on them just yet, I do expect them to do a better job of keeping the Dodgers offense at bay than they did against Houston and will back the 'under' in the opener of this mini two-game set on Monday night. Dustin May will take the ball for the Dodgers. He finished fifth in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting last season and appeared to be rounding into form as the Dodgers exhibition schedule drew to a close, allowing just five earned runs in 19 innings of work while striking out 17 over his final three Spring Training outings, covering a span of 14 innings. Frankie Montas took a step back for the A's in 2020 after consistently pitching well in 2018 and 2019. On a positive note, he did see his strikeouts per nine innings rare increase for the second straight season to a career-high 10.2. He quite simply gave up too many hits, home runs and walks but I'm willing to chalk it up as an anomaly during what was certainly a strange Covid-shortened 2020 campaign. The A's just aren't hitting right now and while the Dodgers have scored plenty, they're coming off a four-game series at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Expect a different story to unfold in Oakland. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-04-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have somewhat surprisingly dropped the first two games of this series, only generating two runs on an improbable Pablo Sandoval pinch-hit home run on Thursday. While Atlanta is loaded with talent up and down its order, I'm not sure it can just flip a switch and start hitting. Zach Eflin will aim to shut down the Braves again on Sunday and he's certainly capable of doing it having given up just four hits and four earned runs against them in 12 1/3 innings of work last season. I do have confidence in Braves sophomore starter Ian Anderson on Sunday afternoon. Lost in the fact that the Braves bats have been silent is that the Phillies haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball either. Anderson gained plenty of big game experience in last year's postseason and should treat this as an equally important game with Atlanta off to an 0-2 start. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with the same total we saw in Game 5 despite what I would consider to be a considerably weaker pitching matchup on Tuesday night. Blake Snell is a former Cy Young award winner and certainly a capable starter but the fact is, save for a dominant effort against the Blue Jays way back in the Wild Card play-in series, he has struggled. Snell has given up 12 walks and five home runs in four starts going back to the ALDS, covering a span of just 18 2/3 innings. Tony Gonsolin will counter for Los Angeles and manager Dave Roberts has indicated he'll be stretched out a little bit in this one. Like Snell, he has struggled here in the postseason, allowing seven walks and three home runs in 7 2/3 innings. Both bullpens have given up their share of big hits in this series and throughout the playoffs. I'm confident playing the 'over' in this potential World Series clincher. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-21-20 | Rays v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
World Series Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 8:08 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair to open this series last night with the Dodgers offense staying hot in an 8-3 rout. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring contest in Game 2 in what should set up as a 'bullpen game' for both clubs. The Rays are hoping that lefty Blake Snell can keep the Dodgers bats at bay but the fact is he's struggled for much of the postseason and isn't likely to work deep into this ball game (Rays manager Kevin Cash elected to leave Tyler Glasnow in the game for 112 pitches last night to conserve his bullpen for this one). While the Rays 'pen has been terrific overall this season, it struggled in Games 4 through 7 of the ALCS. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, but he's only likely to work a few innings. Even if the Rays can't get to him, I do believe they'll be able to do some damage against a Dodgers 'pen that has struggled apart from Julio Urias. After getting through a shaky first inning, Clayton Kershaw was able to keep the Rays bats off balance over the next five frames last night. I look for a different story to unfold tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ALCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Houston at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. This has been a low-scoring series to this point but I expect some offense on Wednesday night as the Rays send Tyler Glasnow to the hill against Zack Greinke. Glasnow has enjoyed a terrific 2020 season but lately we've seen him labor a bit, working at least six innings in just three of his last seven starts. The Astros will obviously be in desperation mode down 3-0 in the series and while that by no means guarantees success at the plate, I do expect them to put up a fight here. Speaking of laboring, Astros veteran starter Zack Greinke has struggled through two postseason starts against the Twins and A's and now faces an even better offense in the Rays. You would have to go back to September 8th to find the last time he worked six innings in a game. With the 'under' having cashed in three straight games to open this series I believe we're getting some value going the other way with the 'over' on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NLCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 6:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen scoring diminish since the start of the LCS with all three games in the American and National League staying 'under' the total. I expect more of the same on Tuesday afternoon as the Braves and Dodgers play Game 2. Ian Anderson has been outstanding for the Braves. In two postseason starts he has allowed just five hits and no earned runs while striking out 17 and walking only three in 11 2/3 innings of work. I certainly expect Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to rise the occasion against the young Anderson here. Kershaw has allowed three earned runs on nine hits while posting a 19:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two postseason starts this year. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a lot of talk of 'juiced balls' thanks to a high-scoring start to the MLB Division Series'. I'm not buying it and expect a return to 'normal' as the Yankees and Rays play their third game in as many days on Wednesday. This series has obviously featured a ton of runs on the strength of plenty of long balls. I look for things to settle down in this one as two veteran starters take the hill in Masahiro Tanaka and Charlie Morton. Morton didn't get a start in the brief Wild Card round so he'll be eager to take the ball here. Keep in mind, this will be his ninth career playoff start having posted a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Tanaka will be making his tenth career playoff start having recorded an even better 2.70 ERA and 0.88 WHIP (despite an ugly start against Cleveland last week). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-02-20 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wild Card Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and San Diego at 7:08 pm et on Friday. We've seen two wild, high-scoring games to open this series with a grand total of 31 runs scored and the amazing thing is, were it not for some absent clutch hitting from the Padres in Game 1, that total could be much higher. Here, I expect more of the same as we should see the two overworked bullpens log plenty of innings in this third and deciding game. The Padres seem to still be uncertain of who will start this game but Mike Clevinger's name has been tossed around as he looks to return from an elbow injury. Jack Flaherty will start for the Cardinals. He simply hasn't lived up to expectations following a stellar 2019 campaign. While Petco Park has always been known as a pitcher's park, the Padres have certainly turned that idea on its head here in 2020. Look for the scoring barrage to continue on Friday evening. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-30-20 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:08 pm et on Wednesday. The opener of this series totaled 15 runs last night with the Yankees bats ambushing one of the best starters in baseball in Shane Bieber. Here, I look for a much lower-scoring affair as two veteran starters take the mound in a critical Game 2. Masahiro Tanaka was an All-Star for the first time since his rookie season in 2014 last year and actually improved on his numbers here in 2020. Tanaka posted more strikeouts per nine innings, fewer walks and fewer hits (all stats per nine innings). I look for him to keep an average Indians offense at bay on Wednesday night. Cookie Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He recorded his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career during the regular season while also cutting his home runs allowed (per nine innings) virtually in half compared to last year. That's not to mention the fact he allowed his fewest hits per nine innings since the 2014 season. The Indians bullpen was solid down the stretch, recording a 3.59 ERA over the final two weeks of the regular season and while the Yankees 'pen wasn't nearly as good, I'm confident it can hold up against the Cleveland bats. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-14-20 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' in the Windy City on Monday night. Jose Berrios will take the ball for Minnesota. He was extremely consistent over the last three seasons but has struggled a bit here in 2020. Berrios' strikeouts per nine innings are up but so are his walks. He's handing out 4.2 free passes per nine innings compared to just 2.3 last season. Here, he'll face a White Sox lineup that's poised to take advantage of any and all mistakes as they rank 4th in the majors in runs per game and second in team batting average. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He has dropped both his ERA and WHIP compared to his rookie season a year ago but that's not saying much as he struggled mightily in 14 outings in 2019. His strikeouts per nine innings are way down while his walks are still up around four per nine innings and he's still getting tagged for just shy of two home runs per nine frames. The Twins rank T17th in runs per game but sit in the top half of baseball in team batting average, on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-02-20 | Tigers v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting another high-scoring affair between these two clubs on Wednesday night. The Tigers are hot right now. They rank ninth in the majors in runs per game and 11th in team batting average. The Brewers find themselves at the back-end of most offensive rankings but I do think they can have some success at the dish here tonight. Spencer Turnbull has posted a solid ERA this season for the Tigers but a deeper look indicates he could be in for some rough waters moving forward. Turnbull is striking out fewer batters per nine innings than a year ago while issuing north of five walks - way up from his walk rate a year ago. Brewers starter Adrian Houser is nothing special having recorded a 4.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. The Tigers can get to him, and the Brewers bullpen here tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Dodgers entered last night's action tied for first in the majors in runs per game but rather than back them at a steep price on Tuesday night, we'll instead play the 'over' as I'm confident the D'Backs will be able to pitch in with some offense as well. Alex Young will take the ball for the D'Backs. We've actually been fairly high on Young this season but he's shown signs of regression in recent starts. He has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing four home runs in just 13 1/3 innings over that stretch. His strikeouts per nine innings are up compared to last season but so are his hits allowed and his walks have started to creep up as well. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. His strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks, hits and home runs allowed are all up compared to last year. He has worked beyond the fourth inning just once in his last four starts. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair on Wednesday night as the A's and Rangers continue their series in Texas. Mike Fiers will take the ball for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was a 15-game winner a year ago. With that being said, W-L records rarely tell the whole story when it comes to MLB starting pitchers. There's a reason he wasn't in the running for the A.L. Cy Young. So far this season his strikeouts per nine innings are down to a career-low 4.1. His walks are on par with a year ago (2.6 per nine innings - not a favorable number). He's also giving up more hits and home runs per nine innings compared to a year ago. The Rangers may soon have to face the fact that Kolby Allard isn't cut out to be a big league starter. He owns a career 6.41 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up so far this season, so are his walks, home runs and hits allowed. The A's are capable of teeing off on Allard on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-21-20 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night as we have an underrated pitching matchup between Jake Odorizzi and Danny Duffy. It may come as a surprise that Odorizzi was a 15-game winner a year ago, earning a spot in the A.L. All-Star team. He's had a bit of tough luck so far this season, giving up far more home runs than usual but his strikeouts per nine innings are up and his walks are down compared to his career year in 2019. He handled the Royals in a seven-inning double-header game last week and should find some success again here. Duffy has been a middle of the road pitcher over the course of his career but has shown signs of breaking out so far this season. His strikeouts have climbed to a career-high 10.4 per nine innings while his walks are a respectable 2.6 per nine innings. He has also given up a career-best 5.9 hits per nine innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-20-20 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' on Thursday as the Reds and Cardinals match up in what has the potential to be a pitcher's duel. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's arguably been the best pitcher in baseball this season, building off what was a terrific 2019 campaign. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star and finished seventh in N.L. Cy Young voting last season. So far this year, Gray's strikeouts per nine innings are up significantly while his walks are down. He's also allowing a career-low hits per nine innings. While we're certainly dealing with a small sample size, Cards veteran starter Adam Wainwright is off to a solid start as well. His strikeouts are down to 6.5 per nine innings but he's done an excellent job of limiting good contact, having yet to give up a home run and a career-low 4.1 hits per nine innings. Note that the Reds entered last night's action sitting tied for 19th in runs per game and 25th in team batting average. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-17-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair between the Giants and Angels on Monday night in Anaheim. Tyler Anderson will take the ball for San Francisco. He has yet to make it more than five innings in any of his three starts this season. Note that Anderson's strikeouts per nine innings are way down from his previous work with the Rockies while his walks per nine innings are up significantly to nearly six. He'll have his hands full with the Angels lineup on Monday. Griffin Canning counters for Los Angeles. He didn't have a banner rookie campaign a year ago and has struggled again in early season action here in 2020. Like Anderson, Canning's strikeouts per nine innings are down while his walks are up. He's also allowing two home runs per nine innings. Off a tough weekend series against the red hot A's, look for the Giants to do some damage at the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-20 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Expect plenty of runners on base and ultimately runs on the board as the Braves and Marlins open their series in Miami on Friday night. Kyle Wright will take the ball for the Braves. He previously had a cup of coffee at the big league level over the last two seasons, making 11 combined appearances in 2018 and 2019. He struggled in those outings and has picked up right where he left off this year, recording a 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP through 12 innings of work. After issuing a whopping 5.9 walks per nine innings in seven appearances last year he's inexplicably been even worse in limited work so far this season, handing out 7.5 walks per nine innings. Pablo Lopez will counter for Miami. His numbers this season are just fine, but he's worked just 10 innings and has a poor track record at the big league level. He posted an ERA north of five in 21 starts last season. While his strikeouts per nine innings are up through two appearances this year, so are his walks. In this matchup of two teams than rank top-10 in baseball in runs per game, I'll back the 'over' on Friday night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While both of these offenses are off to terrific starts this season, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' with the oddsmakers hanging out a generous total in Thursday's series finale. Chris Paddack will take the ball for the Padres. Few starters have been more consistent than Paddack in the early going this season as he has already worked 22 2/3 innings, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are down slightly compared to his rookie campaign last year, but so are his walks. In fact, he's handed out only three free passes so far this season. Julio Urias will counter for Los Angeles. He has seen the 'over' cash in two of his first three starts but keep in mind, he's been opposed by the likes of Drew Smyly, Luke Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Here, he's in line for a pitcher's duel with Paddack. Urias had his start pushed back a night as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts tries to manage workload during a 17-game in 17-night stretch. After posting a stellar 2.49 ERA in 37 appearances, mostly as a reliever, last year he's off to another fine start here in 2020, having recorded a 2.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-10-20 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The A's are off to a terrific start this season, currently running away with the A.L. West division lead. They've been doing it with solid pitching, sitting in a tie for third in baseball in runs allowed per game. They rank just 23rd in the majors in both batting average and slugging percentage and I'm not convinced they'll rack up a ton of runs in the opener of this series in Anaheim. Julio Teheran will take the ball for the Angels. He struggled in his debut with his new club but is certainly capable of bouncing back here, noting that he has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the last two seasons as a member of the Braves. Like Teheran, A's starter Sean Manaea is also off to a tough start this season, albeit with a larger sample size. It is worth noting, however, that his strikeouts per nine innings are up while his walks are down. Keep in mind, he posted an incredible 1.21 ERA in just five starts last season. Two years ago he made 27 starts for the A's and recorded a solid 3.59 ERA. The Angels check in 24th in baseball in batting average and 17th in slugging percentage. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the 'under' in this matchup on Tuesday night, after we saw a whopping 19 runs cross home plate in last night's series opener. Kyle Wright has struggled in 11 career big league appearances for the Braves over the last two seasons but I expect to see him settle down after locking down the fifth spot in the Atlanta rotation with Cole Hamels still on the shelf. Wright rounded into form during Summer Camp and draws a reasonable matchup here catching the Rays off a big performance last night. Yonny Chirinos will counter for the Rays. He was late joining the Rays after testing positive for Covid-19 but by all accounts he's back to full health now. Chirinos is starting his third big league season after pitching well in both 2018 and 2019. Last season he allowed just 112 hits and posted a 114:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 133 1/3 innings of work. The Braves have been quite inconsistent at the plate in the early going this season with young slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. in particular struggling out of the gate. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-24-20 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night at Progressive Field. While I'm not particularly high on Royals starter Danny Duffy, there's no question he's a 'serviceable' left-handed big league starter, and capable of keeping the Indians bats at bay here in the 2020 opener. The Indians really didn't do a lot to improve their order during the offseason and as will likely be a theme here early on, I expect the pitchers to be slightly ahead of the hitters in this odd July start to the campaign. Note that Duffy lasted at least six innings in both starts against Cleveland last season. Shane Bieber is the Indians undisputed ace, and would be an ace on most big league staffs to be honest. While he's still relatively early in his career, Bieber remains one of the more underrated starters in the bigs as far as I'm concerned. Bieber incredibly enters this campaign having worked at least into the sixth inning in 20 consecutive starts - a streak I look for him to continue here against the Royals. Kansas City does have some upside at the dish but once again, I'll take the pitchers over the hitters here in late July. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-03-19 | Mariners v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. With ideal hitting conditions weather-wise and a matchup of two veteran starters winding down their careers and not pitching particularly well, I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair at Wrigley Field. Felix Hernandez will take the ball for Seattle. He has made two starts since returning from injury, giving up eight hits and five earned runs, including three home runs, in only 10 2/3 innings of work. He sports an ERA north of six and a 1.42 WHIP in limited action this season. Jon Lester counters for Chicago. He owns a 4.36 ERA and 1.44 WHIP and comes into this one in wildly inconsistent form having allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last six starts. Mixed in that stretch was a home start against Oakland in which he gave up 10 hits and 11 runs, nine of them earned, over just four innings right here at home. Count on plenty of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night in the Windy City. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-27-19 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This series produced a 1-1-1 o/u mark just last week in Minnesota but we did cash the lone 'over' result - a game that produced a whopping 18 runs. Michael Pineda was on the hill for the Twins in that game and he'll take the ball for them again tonight. Note that his 11 road starts have averaged just shy of 11 total runs per game this season. The White Sox will be getting their fourth look at Pineda this season and had their best game against him last week, plating four earned runs in seven innings in that aforementioned 14-4 loss. Lucas Giolito tossed a rare complete game shutout against the Twins last week. There's really not a lot negative I can write about the White Sox ace. I will point out, however, that the Twins will be seeing him for the fourth time since June 30th and have had some previous success against him. The last time they faced him here in Chicago they racked up seven earned runs in five innings in a 10-3 victory. Minnesota also scored seven earned runs off of Giolito in his final start against them last season. Note that the Twins average well north of six runs per game on the road this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-20-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night as the Cardinals won by a 3-0 score. I'm anticipating more in the way of offensive fireworks on Tuesday, however. Gio Gonzalez will take the ball for the Brewers. He's obviously on the down side of his career and his numbers reflect that this season. Gonzalez has failed to work beyond the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs in 13 innings over that stretch. He's been tagged for four home runs while issuing seven walks over his last two trips to the hill. Michael Wacha will counter for St. Louis. He has recorded an inflated 5.44 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season and hasn't worked beyond the fifth inning since way back on June 28th. In Wacha's last two outings he has given up eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-14-19 | A's v. Giants OVER 9 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 103 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Homer Bailey will take the ball for Oakland. He got roughed up last time out, allowing seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. While Bailey does own a winning record this season, he hasn't pitched well, posting a 5.54 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Likewise, Giants starter Tyler Beede has also struggled, recording a 5.61 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He has given up at least four earned runs in four straight starts, allowing 32 hits in just 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and New York at 1:05 pm et on Monday. I'll keep my analysis brief in the interest of time as this total was just released this morning. The O's are riding high following a wild, come-from-behind 8-7 win over the Astros yesterday and I look for them to have continued success offensively against James Paxton and the Yankees on a hot and humid afternoon in the Bronx. Meanwhile, the Yankees bats were relatively silent against the Jays over the weekend but should have little trouble bouncing back against Gabriel Ynoa and his 5.57 ERA here. Note that the Yanks just faced Ynoa back on August 5th and he didn't make it through the fifth inning. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Oakland and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the over in this matchup last night but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the under on Tuesday night. Two veteran starters will take the ball. Brett Anderson goes for the A’s. He had worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts, allowing three earned runs or less in five of those outings as well. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs. He has gone at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight trips to the hill. With the wind expected to be blowing in, I’ll back the under. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-06-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I’m expecting plenty of offense as the Mets look to build on last night‘s victory which pushed them over the .500 mark for the first time since May. Note the pitching change for the Marlins with Noesi starting in place of Yamomoto. I’ll still play the over following the change as the Mets are playing with plenty of confidence at the dish and should have little trouble getting to the journeyman Hector Noesi, who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since he was a member of the White Sox back in 2015. Zack Wheeler tossed seven shutout innings for the Mets in his last start but prior to that had been tagged for nine earned runs over two starts, spanning 10 1/3 innings. The Marlins are reeling right now but have still managed to score at least four runs in four of their last six contests and we don’t need a slugfest to cash this ticket given the relatively low total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
08-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Both the Brewers and Pirates enter this series struggling which would lead many to believe we‘re In for a relatively low-scoring affair on Monday night. I expect a different story to unfold, however. Jordan Lyles will face his former club in the series opener. Lyles hasn’t pitched particularly well here at PNC Park this season, allowing 23 earned runs in his last 23 innings pitched here. Dario Agrazal will counter for the Buccos. His last start totaled just five runs against the Reds but don’t be fooled by that result as Agrazal didn’t get out of the fourth inning in that game. After steady performance in his first handful of big league starts, Agrazal has now given up eight earned runs in just nine frames over his last two outings. Take the over. | |||||||
07-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 1 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 7:10 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
07-25-19 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 12:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday afternoon as the Cards and Pirates close out their four-game series. While St. Louis did bust out offensively last night, it's worth noting that they had scored a grand total of 15 runs over their previous four contests. The Pirates remain in an offensive lull. Entering last night's game they hadn't plated more than five runs in a game since July 7th. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He owns miserable numbers on the road this season, with an ERA north of seven. However, he has actually pitched well in two of his last three outings away from home and has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings of work against the Pirates this season. Mikolas has given up two earned runs or less in six of eight career starts against the Buccos. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has posted a solid 1.08 WHIP over his last three outings and a 1.13 WHIP at home this season. He tossed six innings of two-hit shutout ball against the hot-hitting Phillies last time out. Musgrove hasn't fared well against the Cardinals over the course of his career but in his lone home start against them he tossed seven shutout innings. Conditions should favor the pitchers on Thursday with relatively low humidity in the ballpark. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-17-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Fresh off a couple of high-scoring affairs to open this series I look for the scoring to settle down considerably on Wednesday night. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the Dodgers. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. The only start in which he didn't make it that far came at Coors Field. The 'under' is 5-1-1 in Maeda's last seven trips to the hill. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadephia. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. Last time out he lasted only five frames but gave up just three earned runs and that game totaled just four runs. He has allowed only four earned runs in 17 career innings against the Dodgers. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-26-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday afternoon. Jakob Junis will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least six innings in five of his last seven starts and has given up just six earned runs over his last three outings, spanning 16 2/3 innings. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in all six career starts against the Indians. Trevor Bauer will counter for Cleveland. He's coming off a miserable outing against the Tigers but I like the bounce-back spot here, noting he had worked at least six innings in six consecutive starts prior to that, including allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings. The last time he faced the Royals he gave up just one earned run over 7 2/3 innings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-18-19 | Dodgers v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers rolled behind a strong performance from Rich Hill last night. I'm not sure that we'll see Walker Buehler give them the same type of performance on Saturday, however. Buehler's four road starts this season have averaged north of 13 total runs. In 20 innings of work away from home he's been tagged for 12 earned runs. While Buehler has pitched well in two career starts against the Reds, he has never pitched at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, where the Reds average just short of five runs per game this season. Tyler Mahle will counter for Cincinnati. After a tremendous first start against the Dodgers last season, he struggled when facing them earlier this year, giving up 11 hits and four earned runs over six innings. Los Angeles has been extremely consistent at the plate, scoring at least five runs in nine of its last 12 games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-01-19 | Cubs v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cubs offense certainly has the ability to bust out at the dish on any given night but consistency hasn't been their strong suit so far this season. On Wednesday, Chicago will hand the ball to Jon Lester. He has been terrific through four starts, giving up just five earned runs in 19 innings of work. He lasted only five innings in his most recent start, but needed only 79 pitches and gave up just one earned run. Lester hasn't allowed a single earned run in his last two starts against the Mariners but hasn't faced them since 2016. Marco Gonzalez is as underrated as they come for the Mariners. He comes in having worked at least into the sixth inning in all seven starts this season. Over his last two outings he has gone 14 innings and allowed just three earned runs. Gonzalez has been tagged for just one home run over his last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Seattle at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Seattle on Saturday night. Mike Minor will take the ball for the Rangers. He did allow four earned runs in his last start in Oakland, but for the most part, has been steady this season. Minor has worked at least six innings in four straight starts, allowing only six earned runs in 29 innings over that stretch. The 'under' has cashed in three of his last four outings as well. Mike Leake will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in four of five starts this season. Leake hasn't thrown more than 87 pitches in any of his last three outings. Also note that he has allowed two earned runs or less in five of six career starts against the Rangers. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-19-19 | Nationals v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Marlins Park on Friday night. Veteran Anibal Sanchez will take the ball for the Nationals. His overall numbers haven't been great this season, but I like the fact that he's worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts, allowing five earned runs over 12 2/3 frames. He'll face a Marlins club that hasn't scored in their last two games and have played a grand total of three runs during their four-game skid. Caleb Smith will counter for Miami. Like Sanchez, he has also been working deep into ball games, lasting six innings in each of his last two outings, allowing only three earned runs on five hits. The Nats' have scored four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-12-19 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I think we're dealing with an inflated total here, largely due to the terrific starts these two A.L. West clubs have gotten off to this season. Veteran Wade Miley will take the ball for Houston. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts this season, needing only 87 and 95 pitches to get through those outings. Miley has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park since the start of last season, allowing just four home runs in 92 1/3 innings of work. Wade LeBlanc will counter for the Mariners. Like Miley, he has also worked at least into the sixth inning in back-to-back starts to open the season. LeBlanc faced the Astros four times last season, pitching poorly in his first two outings against them before settling in over his last two, giving up just three earned runs on six hits over 10 1/3 innings in those last two starts. We know both teams can put up runs in bunches, but I look for a more tightly-contested affair to open this series. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-19 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Great American Ballpark on Wednesday night. Trevor Richards will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been sharp through his first two starts this season, working six innings in each outing, needing only 81 and 97 pitches to get through. In those 12 innings of work he has allowed only nine hits and four earned runs. Oddly enough, the 'over' has gone 1-0-1 in his two starts. The last time Richards faced the Reds he tossed seven shutout innings last September. Tyler Mahle will counter for the Reds. He was brilliant in his first start this season, tossing six shutout innings, allowing five hits and no walks, on the road against the Pirates. The last time he faced the Marlins he tossed six solid innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits and no walks. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-17-18 | Royals v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Monday night. Brad Keller will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least seven innings in three straight starts, giving up just four earned runs in 22 innings pitched over that stretch. The 'under' is 4-1-2 in his last seven starts overall. Joe Musgrove will counter for Pittsburgh. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. Musgrove hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since way back on July 15th. The 'under' is 5-3 in his last eight starts overall. Musgrove's 10 home starts have averaged just 7.4 total runs this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Seattle at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Wednesday night. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Padres. He has quietly pitched well on the road this season, recording a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 42 1/3 innings of work. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last six starts overall. Last time out, Lucchesi lasted only five innings but needed only 75 pitches and gave up just two earned runs on three hits on the road against the D'Backs. He allowed just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings against the Mariners back in late August. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, giving up just one earned run on 13 hits over 19 innings pitched during that stretch. LeBlanc has been solid here at home this season, posting a 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The 'under' has gone 15-7-1 in his 23 starts this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-10-18 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Target Field on Monday night. J.A. Happ will take the ball for the Yankees. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run on two hits over six innings against the A's, on the road no less. He has posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road this season. Kyle Gibson will counter for the Twins. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Last time out in a tough matchup on the road against the Astros, Gibson allowed only two earned runs on four hits over seven innings. The 'under' has gone 9-6-1 in his 16 home starts this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
09-04-18 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Tuesday night. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold here. Derek Rodriguez will take the ball for the Giants. He has made two starts since returning from injury and has pitched relatively well, allowing five earned runs on eight hits over 11 innings. Note that the 'under' is now 4-1 over his last five trips to the hill. German Marquez will counter for Colorado. He has pitched at least seven innings in six of his last seven starts. Marquez has given up two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in his last seven starts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-28-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Tuesday night. Ivan Nova will take the ball for the Pirates. He continues to pitch well, having worked at least six innings in three straight starts, giving up only five earned runs in 18 2/3 innings pitched over that stretch. The 'over' has gone an incredible 10-2 in Nova's 12 road starts this season but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. Note that his two career starts in St. Louis have totaled just three and seven runs. Jack Flaherty will counter for the Cardinals. He was magnificent in his last start, giving up only one earned run on one hit over six innings of work. Flaherty has worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts, giving up just seven earned runs in 30 1/3 innings pitched over that stretch. He owns a 3.10 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-22-18 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Guaranteed Rate Field on Wednesday afternoon. Kyle Gibson will take the ball for the Twins. As I've said a number of times over the course of the season, he has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this year. Gibson has posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 road starts this season. He enters this start having worked seven innings in each of his last two starts, allowing just four earned runs. The 'under' is 6-1 in Gibson's last seven starts against the White Sox. Carlos Rodon will counter for Chicago. In five home starts he has recorded a 1.50 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. He has worked exactly eight innings in his last two outings, allowing just three earned runs on nine hits. Rodon has worked at least six innings in seven straight starts, allowing two earned runs or less in six of those outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-21-18 | Cubs v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Comerica Park on Tuesday night. Kyle Hendricks will take the ball for the Cubs. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Last time out he lasted six innings against a tough Brewers lineup, needing only 93 pitches to get through those six frames. Note that the 'under' has gone 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. Jordan Zimmermann will counter for Detroit. He has had a fairly typical season by his own standards but has been fairly effective lately, working into the seventh inning in two of his last three starts. Note that he has worked at least six innings in five of eight outings since the start of July. He did give up six earned runs in only five innings against the White Sox last time out but has not issued a walk in his last two starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings pitched. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-16-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Louis on Thursday night as the Nats' and Cards wrap up their series. Tanner Roark will take the ball for Washington. He's in fine form right now, having worked at least seven innings in four straight starts, allowing just four earned runs over that stretch, spanning 29 2/3 innings of work. It's also worth mentioning that he has posted a 27:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those four outings. Luke Weaver will counter for the Cardinals after having his start moved up by a day. His overall numbers aren't great this season but he has held his own lately, working at least six innings in four of his last six trips to the hill. He gave up just two earned runs over six innings in his last start in Miami. The Nats' aren't scoring with any consistency right now so he may be catching them at the right time. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-14-18 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 105 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Daytime Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Wrigley Field on Tuesday afternoon. Jhoulys Chacin will take the ball for the Brewers. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven trips to the hill. Save for a rocky outing against the Dodgers in Los Angeles two starts back, he has been sharp, giving up two earned runs or less in three of his last five starts. The last time he faced the Cubs back on June 13th he tossed six shutout innings (we won with the 'under' on that day). Jose Quintana will counter for the Cubs. He has worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts. Over his last three home outings he has given up just five earned runs in 19 innings of work. Note that the Brewers have scored four runs or less in three of their last four contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-11-18 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between St. Louis and Kansas City at 7:15 pm et in Saturday. Only the Cardinals managed to get on the scoreboard in the opener of this series last night. I’m anticipating another relatively low scoring affair on Saturday. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cards. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in his last two starts and didn’t give up a single earned run in six innings last time out. He checks in with a 3.27 ERA on the season. Danny Duffy will counter for Kansas City. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in 11 consecutive outings. Duffy has allowed one earned run or less in six of his last nine starts. Note that one team has been held to one run or less in each of the Royals last four contests. The Cards have seen eight runs or less scored in five straight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-08-18 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Nationals Park on Wednesday night. Mike Foltynewicz will take the ball for the Braves. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Last time out he gave up just two earned runs over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Mets. Note that the 'under' has cashed in his last two outings. Foltynewicz has posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 61 1/3 innings of work on the road this season. Veteran Tommy Milone will counter for Washington. We won with the 'under' in his last start and won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Milone has pitched well since joining the Nats', allowing just four earned runs in 12 innings of work. In his two starts he has struck out 15 without walking a single batter. He needed only 84 and 97 pitches to get through those two outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
08-01-18 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
MLB National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Last night's game between these two division rivals crept 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Cole Hamels will make his first start for the Cubs since coming over from the Rangers in a pre-deadline deal. Hamels had been laboring a bit lately but was obviously affected by the rumors swirling around him. I look for this move over to the National League, where he spent plenty of years with the Phillies, will serve him well. Nick Kingham will take the ball for the Pirates. He was roughed up by the Mets in his last start but had been pitching well previously, working at least six innings in four of his last five starts, giving up three earned runs or less in four of those trips to the hill. This is a big start with a lot on the line between these two N.L. Central clubs and I look for another tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-26-18 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' at PNC Park on Thursday evening. Steven Matz will take the ball for the Mets. He stumbled last time out against the Yankees, allowing nine hits and five earned runs in five innings. However, prior to that he had worked at least into the sixth inning in eight consecutive starts, giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those outings. Matz' road starts are averaging just a shade over eight total runs. Nick Kingham will counter for Pittsburgh. He's 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five home starts this season. He has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts and has given up just six earned runs in his last 18 2/3 innings of work. The 'under' is 4-2 in his last six outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-25-18 | Pirates v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Wednesday afternoon. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the Pirates. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts, allowing just five earned runs in 18 innings of work. Three starts ago he turned in one of his most impressive outings of the season as he worked 6 2/3 innings and needed only 77 pitches to do so. Note that he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since way back on May 22nd. Trevor Bauer will counter for the Indians. He struggled last time out, giving up four earned runs in just four innings of work. Prior to that, Bauer had worked at least into the seventh inning in eight consecutive starts. Over that stretch, he gave up more than two earned runs only once. Bauer has posted a 2.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-13-18 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Friday night. Felix Pena will take the ball for the Angels. He seems to be getting better with each passing start and has now worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 10 2/3 innings, needing only 76 pitches to get through each of those outings. Walker Buehler will make his return to the Dodgers rotation after a rocky relief appearance. Before he got injured, he had worked seven innings in two of his last three starts. Buehler has posted a 2.87 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at home this season. His arm should be fresh as he has rarely had to be stretched out this season, topping out at 97 pitches. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-12-18 | Rays v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs yesterday afternoon at Target Field but I expect to see a different story unfold on Thursday night. Blake Snell has been considered one of the biggest All-Star snubs this season and I certainly anticipate him pitching with plenty of fire in this one. Snell has been nothing short of brilliant this season, posting a 2.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In 28 2/3 innings of work over his last four starts he has allowed just two earned runs on 14 hits. Kyle Gibson has enjoyed a solid campaign by his own standards for the Twins. Gibson checks in with a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and enters this start having worked at least six innings in five of his last six trips to the hill. Last time out he gave up just three earned runs over seven innings against the Orioles. We're not being given a lofty total to work with by any means, but I still see considerable value in the 'under' at the current number. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Tuesday night. The D'Backs will send Patrick Corbin to the mound. He checks in having been in fine form over his last three starts, posting a 0.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over that stretch. In seven road starts he has recorded a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with those games averaging just north of seven total runs. Note that Corbin has worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 consecutive outings. Likewise, Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has been working deep into ball games, going at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two outings, giving up only six hits in 16 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-09-18 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Monday night. Anthony DeScaflani will take the ball for the Reds. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. While he did allow nine earned runs over his last two outings, he needed only 88 and 82 pitches to get through those starts. In his lone road start this season he gave up just two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in Pittsburgh. Mike Clevinger will make his first start since July 1st for the Indians. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. I like the fact that he has thrown more than 100 pitches just twice in his last four outings and has had the extended layoff since his last start. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
07-04-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Corey Oswalt will take the ball for the Mets, making his second big league start. He struggled in his first, but I do look for him to settle down against an inconsistent Blue Jays offense on Wednesday. Note that Oswalt did hold the Cardinals to just two earned runs on two hits over 4 2/3 innings in a relief appearance earlier this season, so he's capable of stepping up. Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has rounded back into form since returning from injury, allowing only one earned run over 12 frames in his last two starts. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in both of those games. I like the fact that he hasn't been overworked, needing only 81 and 90 pitches to get through those two outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 36 runs in three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night, however, as two young starting pitchers go head-to-head. Erick Fedde will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six trips to the hill. I like the fact that Fedde has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his first seven big league starts. His ground ball to fly ball ratio has been outstanding over his last few outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of Fedde's last four starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't been working deep into ball games lately but should take some positives from his most recent start against the same Nats' he'll face on Friday night. In that outing he gave up just two earned runs in five innings and needed only 87 pitches to get through that start. Pivetta has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His home starts are totaling just shy of 7.5 runs per contest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-26-18 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres aren't scoring with any consistency right now and while the Rangers have been on a bit of a tear at the dish, I believe they'll be held in check by San Diego starter Tyson Ross. Ross has been effective on the road this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings of work. He enters this outing having worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Ross is coming off one of his best starts of the season, having allowed just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants, albeit in a losing effort. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has made three starts this season, working into the seventh inning in two of those. He needed only 81 pitches to go 6 2/3 innings against the Royals last time out. I look for him to build off of that performance against a slumping Padres lineup here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-22-18 | Orioles v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night as two teams that have been struggling to score with consistency lately go head-to-head in an interleague matchup. Baltimore will hand the ball to Alex Cobb. He missed all of spring training so the first part of the regular season was essentially his time to work out the kinks. He certainly struggled as a result. However, he has rebounded lately, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Note that he has also thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in Cobb's last four starts. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Last time out, Newcomb threw six innings of two-hit shutout ball. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine outings. Newcomb has been sharp here at home, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees were one of the best 'over' bets in baseball for the first two months of the season but that has certainly turned around lately as they've reeled off nine straight 'under' results. I look for that trend to continue on Friday night in the Bronx. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi. He tossed six innings of no-hit ball in his return from Tommy John surgery and since then has worked five innings in back-to-back outings against the Nationals and Mariners. While we're dealing with a small sample size it is worth noting that his strikeout numbers are up while his walk totals are down. After giving up three home runs in his last two starts he will definitely need to do a better job of commanding the strike zone in order to keep the Yankees All-Star lineup in the ballpark on Friday. Jonathan Loaisiga will make his first big league start for the Yankees. The 23-year old hasn't even started a game at the Triple-A level so it's difficult to say how he'll adapt to facing big league hitters. The good news is he faces a lower-tier opponent in the Rays. It's also worth noting that Loiaisiga has posted an impressive 58:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' this season and I don't see anything changing as they meet in Wednesday's series finale at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery is off to a terrific start for the Cubs this season, having worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first three starts, allowing a grand total of two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work. He has needed just 76, 76 and 95 pitches to get through those three outings so he has been relatively efficient as well. The Brewers haven't been scoring with much consistency over the last couple of weeks so Montgomery may be catching them at the right time here. Jhoulys Chacin wil counter for Milwaukee. He's been sharp here at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings of work. His five home starts have averaged a total of just 7.6 runs scored. Chacin brings solid form to the table having worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since April 20th so his arm should be in fine shape for this one. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were the best 'over' bet in baseball for the better part of the first two months of the season but now they check into this series riding a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday as the Nationals send Tanner Roark to the hill against CC Sabathia. Roark has been extremely consistent this season, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those starts. Last time out he allowed only two earned runs over six innings against the Rays. The Nats' gave Roark 11 runs in that game but generally haven't provided him a great deal of run support, putting up four runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts overall. Sabathia bounced back from a rough stretch, allowing only two earned runs on three hits over seven innings against the Blue Jays last time out. He has been fairly consistent at home this season, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings here at Yankee Stadium. His starts have generally been high-scoring but but here we're dealing with a fairly high posted total as well. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Cleveland exploded for nine runs in yesterday's victory in Detroit, matching its highest offensive output since putting up nine runs in a game on May 31st. Note that the Indians had scored just 20 runs in total over their previous six contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox posted an impressive series win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park but scored only eight runs in the process. They've plated a grand total of 29 runs over their last nine games overall. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back nicely following back-to-back shaky outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings last time out against Milwaukee. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. His road starts are averaging just seven total runs this season. The 'under' has cashed in each of Carrasco's last four starts against the White Sox and he's given up only four earned runs in 29 1/3 innings of work. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He was rocked for seven earned runs and lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Orioles back on May 24th. However, since then he has worked six innings in back-to-back outings - last time out allowing just two earned runs in Minnesota. The 'under' has gone 3-1-1 in Giolito's last five starts overall. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' in the series finale between the Braves and Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Sean Newcomb will take the ball for Atlanta. He is off to an incredible start this season, having gone 7-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Newcomb has worked at least six innings in eight of his last nine starts and has given up two earned runs or less in six of his last seven outings. He's been getting a ton of run support on the road, well north of six runs per start, but I'm not expecting the Braves bats to do much damage on Sunday afternoon. That's because the Dodgers will turn to Ross Stripling, who has been pitching exceptionally well. Stripling has posted a 4-1 record to go along with a 1.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start as he pitched five shutout innings, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out seven against the Pirates. The 'under' is 5-1 in Stripling's last six trips to the hill. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-06-18 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair in the series opener between these A.L. West rivals last night. That game got off to a slow start before the Rangers offense took over. Look for a different story to unfold tonight. Daniel Mengden will take the ball for the A's. He has quietly been one of the best starters in the American League so far this season, going 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Mengden has worked at least seven innings in each of his last three starts and has gone at least six innings in five consecutive outings. Over that stretch his highest pitch count was just 102. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of four career starts against the Rangers and tossed seven innings of four-hit shutout ball here in Arlington last year. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He's been alternating good and bad starts lately and is certainly coming off a disappointing outing against the Angels in which he lasted just three innings. I do look for him to bounce back here, noting that Colon has given up just four earned runs and worked at least six innings in both starts against the A's since the start of last season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-21-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
N.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in the opener of this series on Monday night in New York. The Marlins were involved in a high-scoring affair in yesterday's series finale against the Braves but I look for a different story to unfold in this one. Rookie Elieser Hernandez will take the ball for the Mets on Monday. After making two relief appearances he made his first career start last week against the Dodgers, and pitched well, allowing just one earned run on three hits over five innings of work. He needed only 75 pitches to get through those five innings. Jason Vargas will counter for New York. He has gotten off to a disastrous start this season, allowing 19 earned runs on 26 hits in 12 1/3 innings, spanning three starts. Keep in mind, Vargas was an 18-game winner with a 4.16 ERA as a member of the Royals last year. I see this as a solid bounce-back spot for the veteran left-hander. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-18-18 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Friday. Perhaps these two clubs' reputations precede them as we're dealing with a lofty total in the opener of this series on Friday night in Kansas City. CC Sabathia will take the ball for the Yankees. He struggled last time out, allowing four earned run on nine hits in just four innings of work. Keep in mind, that start came against the Boston Red Sox. He'll be taking a step down in class against the Royals here. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Sabathia allowed only three earned runs over 12 2/3 innings. The 'under' has cashed in five of his last six trips to the hill against the Royals. Jakob Junis will counter for Kansas City. He has been quietly effective this season, despite pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. With that being said, Junis is fresh off a rocky outing, giving up four earned runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings. That start came on the road against the Indians, a tough challenge to be sure. He'll face another tough challenge against the Yankees here but I'm confident he'll hang in there. Note that Junis has at least worked into the sixth inning in five straight and seven of eight starts overall this season. The Royals are giving up just 3.25 runs per contest in his four starts at Kaufman Stadium. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-05-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Tampa Bay at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in St. Petersburg on Saturday evening. Aaron Sanchez will take the ball for the Jays. He has worked at least six innings in each of his last five starts, and has worked into the sixth inning in all six of his starts this season. He wasn't at his best on the road against the Twins last time out but the Jays still managed to win that game so it shouldn't knock his confidence heading into this outing. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 in his five career starts against the Rays. Jake Faria will counter for Tampa Bay. He has settled in nicely to the Rays rotation, most recently tossing eight shutout innings against the Tigers. He has given up one earned run or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. Note that the 'under' has gone 3-1 over those four outings. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 107 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' in the Bronx on Thursday evening. The Blue Jays are coming off an offensively explosion against the Royals yesterday, scoring 15 runs in their fourth consecutive victory. Here, they face a tougher challenge, however, as they go up against CC Sabathia. The big left-hander will be making just his third start of the season and he hasn't exactly been dominant. But I do expect him to perform well on Thursday night, noting that he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work against the Jays earlier this season. Aaron Sanchez will counter for Toronto. Like Sabathia, he's capable of pitching better than he has so far this season, but I look for a solid outing in a big spot here. Note that Sanchez is coming off his best start of the campaign, allowing just three hits and one earned run over eight innings against the Orioles. Take the under (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |