Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-21-22 | St. Peter's v. Niagara OVER 123.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* OVER (MAAC TOY) The 6-6 Saint Peters' Peacocks enter on top form, having won 3 straight. Most recently it was a 65-57 win over Canisius. Isiah Dasher led the Peacocks with 17 points and 2 rebounds. The Niagara Purple Eagles are 8-8, but they've been playing well as well, with 5 straight wins. Most recently it was a 72-63 win over Manhattan. Noah Thomasson led the way with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Both teams have been playing to lots of low-scoring games, but I expect this competitive contest to be a shootout. Each team has been great of late, so expect that to translate into offensive production today; the play is the over! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-20-22 | Texas State v. Arkansas-Little Rock UNDER 138 | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SUNBELT TOY) I think this one sets up really nicely from a situational standpoint. Most of my Over/Under releases I base upon strong "situations," and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Arkansas Little Rock struggles to score at the best of times, but after nearly a two-week COVID hiatus, I firmly believe the Trojans will have a very slow start to this game offensively. Instead, I expect the home side to double down on the defensive end here against the Texas State Bobcats. To say this is a revenge game for the Bobcats would be an understatement, as ALRU has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, including all 4 games last year. Texas State rallied to beat UL Lafayette 72-68 last time out, but it's seen the total go under the number in 7 of its last 11 after an ATS home loss to a conference opponent. For all the reasons listed here, my official call on the total is definitely on the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-19-22 | Colgate v. Bucknell +10.5 | Top | 75-56 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* BUCKNELL (MAULING) Bucknell is eager to stop an extended losing streak, and Colgate stands in its way. Colgate is the defending Patriot League champion, but it's had plenty of issues this season as well. The Bison have indeed dropped seven straight after a 63-55 setback at American most recently. On November 20th Colgate would post an amazing 100-85 win over Syracuse, but it would then go on to lose eight of its next nine games. It's since bounced back with wins over Army and Navy. Bucknell though has won its last 5 home games against Colgate, including a 71-70 nail-biter in the last matchup at Sojka Pavilion in 2020. Bucknell is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the +9.5 to +11.5 points range as well. No outright here, but MUCH closer than expected; grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-18-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
10* NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN GOM). After 6 straight wins, I say that Wisconsin takes a step back here mentally finally against this hungry and tough Northwestern home side. The Badgers enter off a 78-68 win over Ohio State, while Northwestern is off a 64-62 win over Michigan State as 9.5-point underdogs. Wisconsin is led by Brad Davison. It averages 72. points per game, while allowing 65.1. The Wildcats will be hungry here though, as they lost 4 in a row previous to their most recent win. Northwestern averages 76.8 PPG, while allowing 68.3. The Badgers aren't a high-scoring team. I say the "wheels on the bus" finally fall off here. Look for NORTHWESTERN to build off its latest performance and to find a way to deliver here at home as well! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-17-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska UNDER 146.5 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF MONTH Under Indiana/Nebraska The Hoosiers will be eager to return to their winning ways today after an 83-74 loss to Iowa last time out. Indiana has just one win on the road though. If Indiana is going to win this game, it won't be because of its offense. The Hoosiers average only 74.9 points per game, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 62.2. That defense catches a break here today as well, as Nebraska is only averaging 73.4 PPG, while allowing 79.2. Off a loss and on the road, we can expect Indiana to double down on its efforts on the defensive end; a great situational play on the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-15-22 | Florida International +7.5 v. Middle Tennessee | Top | 39-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* FIU (BLOWOUT) Both teams are 10-6 SU. FIU is just 5-8-1 ATS, while MTSU is 10-2-2 ATS. I think these lop-sided trends start correcting themselves here though. FIU is off eight straight ATS losses, which is definitely significant to note as the Golden Panthers are still 14-7 ATS in their last 21 after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. Most recently it was an 84-56 setback to Auburn. That's also noteworthy, as FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a SU/ATS loss of 25 or more points. FIU plays with revenge here as well after a 67-56 loss to the Blue Raiders as 4-point favorites last year. MTSU has broken a two-game slide with B2B SU/ATS wins/covers, but note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven off a SU/ATS victory in which it held its opponent to 59 or fewer points in. Probably no outright, but definitely right down to the wire; so grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-14-22 | Michigan +10 v. Illinois | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN (BLOWOUT) The Wolverines will be highly motivated here after their 75-67 loss to Rutgers. Overall they average 72.8 PPG, while allowing 66.8. The Illini average 80.8 PPG, while allowing 65.0. Hunter Dickinson averages 16.1 points per game for the Wolverines. Kofi Cockburn averages 22.0 for the Illini. With 13-2 Purdue coming to town on Monday, I expect Illinois to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Listen, I'm not calling for an outright win or anything like that at all, but expect Michigan to bounce back, fight hard and to keep this one close; grab all those points! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-13-22 | Northern Kentucky +3.5 v. Youngstown State | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* NKU (MAULING) I look for the hungry 5-8 NKU Norse to give the 9-7 Youngstown Penguins a run for their money today! Both teams have been terrible of late, losing four of their last five. Each plays at a similar pace and their offensive and defensive numbers are also very comparable. However one thing to take note of here, is that NKU is actually 15th in the country in offensive rebounding, while the Penguins are 84th. These second-chance opportunities are going to be the difference-maker in this one. If history is any precedence, then NKU has to LOVING its chances here, as note that it has in fact won 8 of the last 10 matchups in this series. Outright victory?! With a spread like this, clearly that's a possibility. But all that said, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State UNDER 146.5 | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SEC TOY) I'm expecting a defensive affair in this one. Mississippi State is 10-4, while Georgia is 5-10. The Bulldogs though are looking to rebound here after an 82-72 loss at rival Mississippi this past weekend. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Georgia has lost five of it slast six and it's coming off a 15-point loss at Kentucky. Georgia plays at a slow pace, ranked 121st in the nation by KenPom. Mississippi State though plays to an even slower pace, ranked 316th. Mississippi State's strength is on the offensive side, but it's not going to have to keep the foot on the gas against this offensively challenged Georgia team. The last thing Georgia can do is turn this into a "track-meet," so I'm expecting a slower-pace overall. This number is a tad high, the play is the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-11-22 | DePaul v. Marquette UNDER 150.5 | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNDER (BE TOM) DePaul is off a 79-64 home loss to Villanova and I think it'll have difficulty on the offensive end again today. Marquette comes in off a 92-64 victory over Georgetown. DePaul has now dropped eight straight ranked games. Marquette is now 2-3 in league action after its latest victory. Note that the 28-point victory that the Golden Eagles had over the Hoyas was their largest-ever winning margin on the road in BIG EAST regular season play. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of regression here. The under has gone 7-1 in the Blue Demons last eight games following a double-digit loss as well. Expect a slower-pace, and ultimately a lower-scoring contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-10-22 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro +3 | Top | 54-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (GAME OF WEEK) This is a makeup game for one that was postponed on January 1st. This is UNCG's third game in five days and I believe the schedule actually benefits the home side. UNCG is off a 72-56 road win at VMI on Saturday, led by 18 points and 6 boards from Kobe Langley. Wofford is off a 68-57 road win at ETSU, led by 22 points from BJ Mack. UNCG is 5-1 at home this year though and it's held its last three opponents to under 60 points. This is an evenly matched contest, and in scenario's like that, I LOVE grabbing as many points as I can. And that's the play here, grab the points on UNCG! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-09-22 | Northeastern +7.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
10* CAA GOY on Northeastern Northeastern is the hungrier "dog" in this fight. It comes in off 3 straight losses. Towson has had two cancelations of late, as well as conference loss to Drexel on Monday. Northeastern comes in rested after a week off. Most recently the Huskies fell 71-70 to William and Mary on New Year's Eve. Five players average double digits in scoring for Northeastern. Towson fell 65-61 in Drexel in its most recent outing, but it's still 9-5 overall. Towson has four double-digit scorers. Both teams are dealing with serious COVID issues, but Northeastern will be the healthier of the two now. Look for the much more determined visiting side to fight tooth and nail until the end. Grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-08-22 | The Citadel +14.5 v. Chattanooga | Top | 67-85 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
THE CITADEL (10* SOUTHERN GAME OF YEAR). These teams split their season series last year, with each side winning on its home floor. Chattanooga will continue that trend today, as I am NOT calling for an outright upset here. That said, this is WAY too many points to be giving up in my opinion. Chattanooga is 12-3, most recently holding on for a 75-67 win over Wofford on Wednesday. Malachi Smith leads three players in double figures at 20.4 points per game. The Citadel average 82.6 points per game though, while the Mocs average 77.9. The difference is on the defensive end, but I expect the Bulldogs' up-tempo play to keep them in this one late. As I stated off the top, no outright victory for the visiting side here, but we can absolutely expect it to make it interesting! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-07-22 | Columbia +17.5 v. Princeton | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
10* COLUMBIA (IVY LEAGUE GAME OF YEAR). Columbia will be motivated to get into the winners circle today. It's just 3-9 following its 79-69 loss to Sacred Heart ont he 13th of Decemer. It's following two games were postponed, and in my opinion, "rest" is NOT going to lead to "rust" today. In fact, I beleieve the extra time off will benefit the Lions here in the second half of the season. Liam Murphy had 20 points in the loss to Sacred Heart. Columbia averages 67.8 PPG, while Princeton averages 82.1. The Tigers are coming off a 100-59 rout of Kean to move to 10-3. This is the opener of Princeton's Ivy League schedule though and I think it'll have a much tighter fight than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Tigers win this game, but Columbia gets the comfortable cover! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-06-22 | Sam Houston State +3.5 v. Tarleton St | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Sam Houston State (WESTERN ATHLETIC GAME OF YEAR). The Sam Houston State Bearkats are 7-8, while the Tarleton State Texans are 6-9. While both teams started out slowly, each has looked better of late. The Bearkats have won three in a row, while the Texans have won five of their last seven. Sam Houston State averages 73.5 PPG, while allowing 67.1. Tarleton State averages only 63.2 PPG, while allowing 63.4. The Bearkats on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, while the Texans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -5.5-points range. Sam Houston State is heating up and in a contest that I see being decided in the waning moments, I'll gladly grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-04-22 | Providence v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Marquette (BIG EAST GAME OF YEAR) Providence is 13-1 overall. Its only loss was against Virginia at a neutral site. Marquette is 8-6 and it comes in starving for a win today after four straight losses. Five of the Golden Eagles' last six games though have come against Top 50 teams. The Friars have so far exceeded expectations and now they hit the most difficult part of their schedule. Overall the Friars average 69.8 points per game while allowing 61.1. The Golden Eagles are ranked 67th in defensive efficiency rating and they are ranked 39th overall as far as pace is concerned. I say regression is imminent for Providence. Marquette comes in focused here and as the hungrier team. Finally, note that the Golden Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a divisional home dog in the +1.5 to +3.5-points range. The outright is possible, but grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-02-22 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +10 | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. The Buckeyes are 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS. Ohio State comes to Nebraska off a 73-55 win over Wisconsin as a 5-point favorite. The issue here for Ohio State is that its last three games have been canceled due to COVID-related issues. I say that "rest" leads to "rust." Nebraska on the other hand is 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS. Nebraska can't afford to look past anyone. It broke a five-game slide last time out in a relatively simple 88-74 victory over Kennesaw State. Ohio State is 48th in offensive efficiency and it allows just 67.3 PPG. Nebraska on the other hand is ranked 267th offensively and 267th defensively. On paper, the Huskers are overmatched, but this is a great "situational" play here. And it's strong from a trend standpoint as well, as Ohio State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing with two or more weeks of rest between contests. No outright, but VERY tight in the end! AAA Sports | |||||||
01-01-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Oral Roberts UNDER 151 | Top | 62-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* SUMMIT TOTAL OF YEAR on the under Nebraska Omaha/Oral Roberts. The 2-11 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are on the road to take on the 8-6 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and in my opinion, we're going to witness a much more defensive affair than what this line is suggesting. The Mavericks snapped their 11-game slide with an 84-78 win over the Western Illinois Leathernecks last time out. Omaha averages just 64.9 PPG this year, while allowing 80.3. Oral Roberts is averaging 80.9 PPG, while conceding just 68.1. The Eagles are off an 83-66 win over Denver in their last game. I think the Mavericks though will have a predictable letdown here after their win in their last game. Oral Roberts doesn't need to run up the score here to win this game, just control it. When the smoke clears, expect this total to say under the number. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-30-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. UCF | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN With four losses on the season, Michigan has tumbled out of the rankings. But we don’t think it’ll be long until the Wolverines find themselves back in the Top 25. The last time they played, it was a 37-point win over Southern Utah. Not every game is going to be that easy, but tonight’s contest at UCF should be another comfortable victory where Michigan covers the spread. Juwan Howard’s team destroyed UCF last year in Ann Arbor, winning 80-58 as 13-point favorites. They don’t even need to win by half that margin tonight. UCF seems to be getting a bit too much credit for a four-game win streak that hasn’t included any tough matchups. A game at Temple two weeks ago was the only real challenge of sorts. The Golden Knights were blown out by their toughest opponent so far, Auburn, who beat them 85-68 back on Dec 1. Michigan is the toughest team UCF will have faced (besides Auburn) thus far. This is the smallest spread for any Michigan game in 2021. They’ve been favored in every game. It’s been an underachieving start to the season for the Wolverines, but tonight they assert themselves in a major way. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as road favorites while UCF has failed to cover the last four times it has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better. Play on MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
12-29-21 | Tennessee v. Alabama -2.5 | Top | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win over Arizona last week, so they’ve got to be feeling pretty good about themselves heading into the SEC opener at Alabama. But the Crimson Tide are ranked in the Top 20 as well. It’s been a bit of a shaky December in Tuscaloosa with the Tide losing two of its last three games, including one-point setback to Davidson in their last game. But this is an Alabama team that has beaten both Gonzaga and Houston this year. You probably aren’t going to find a team that has a better two wins on its resume. The Crimson Tide’s recent issues on the defensive end - they’ve given up 79 or more points in four of the last five games - should only serve as motivation for tonight’s game. Teams are still only shooting 43.1% against the Tide for the year and 39.3% here in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have been great at defending the three-point line as well. At home, they allow just 26.3% of attempts to be made from behind the arc. Tennessee has played just one true road game so far and that was at Colorado. The Volunteers have not shot the ball well outside of Knoxville as they were held to 53 and 52 points in neutral court losses to Villanova and Texas Tech. This is a good spot to jump on Bama. Play on ALABAMA AAA | |||||||
12-28-21 | Yale +13 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on YALE It’s been two weeks since Yale took the court. The favorites to win the Ivy League this year have suffered through a disappointing start to 2021-22, going just 6-7 in their first 13 games. They lost at home to Monmouth two weeks ago and you can bet the Bulldogs have been seething ever since. Tonight, they find themselves on the opposite side of the country, playing St. Mary’s, who is 11-3 SU and gearing up for conference play. The Gaels will host 12-1 San Francisco on New Year’s Day and there’s a good chance that the players & coaches might be more focused on that game than they are this one. So laying double digits in this spot seems like a dicey proposition. We know that St. Mary’s is 8-0 at home and only gives up 55.9 points/game. But this is too many points vs. a good Yale team that will be motivated, trying to avoid a third straight loss. Play on YALE AAA | |||||||
12-27-21 | Brown v. Syracuse -9.5 | Top | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Syracuse will be looking to end a two-game losing streak when it welcomes Brown to the Carrier Dome on Monday. Those two losses for the Orange both came to old Big East rivals. First, it was Villanova and then it was Georgetown. It’s also been 16 days since Jim Boeheim’s team took the court. It’s been a 17-day layoff for Brown, who is coming off a five-point loss to Vermont. Before that, the Bears had won and covered four in a row, though none of the teams they beat were as good as Syracuse. The key here is who will get off to a better start? Rust could certainly be a factor for both teams. We believe the home side is better equipped to handle the situation. Something we should mention from the loss to Georgetown is that the Orange led by 10 at halftime. Boeheim has five players on the roster, one of which is his son, averaging at least 12 points/game. Brown has only one player that averages that many. The Orange have been scoring a lot at home thus far and are just too potent offensively for their Ivy League opposition. Play on SYRACUSE AAA | |||||||
12-22-21 | Illinois -13.5 v. Missouri | Top | 88-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 10* on ILLINOIS This game takes place in St. Louis and is known as the “Braggin Rights Game.” Last year, in the midst of the pandemic, a decision was made to “flip a coin” for home court advantage. Missouri won the coin toss and then the game, 81-78 as a 3.5 point underdog. You can bet Illinois remembers that and will be out for revenge Wednesday night. This Fighting Illini team isn’t as strong as the one that earned a #1 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But they are a lot better than Missouri, who comes in at 6-5 with losses to the likes of Kansas City and Liberty. The Tigers also got blown out by 37 against Kansas earlier in the month. Illinois’ only loss this month came against an Arizona team that is among the very best in America. We’re a bit perplexed that the Illini aren’t in the Top 25. The revenge angle definitely matters here and we look for the Illini to make a big statement. It promises to be a dark day for Missouri athletics as we’re also fading the football team in the Armed Forces Bowl. Play on ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
12-21-21 | Xavier v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on 'NOVA Xavier takes an 11-1 record into Philly tonight. The Musketeers have won seven straight games and already pulled three upsets this year. They did not cover the spread in their last game, however. As 11-point favorites, Xavier could only beat Marquette 80-71. It’s much tougher opposition on Tuesday. We say that knowing full well that Villanova has lost two straight games, one to #1 Baylor and the other to Creighton. Both those losses were on the road though. Poor shooting was the culprit in each loss. Nova made only 22.2% of its field goal attempts when they faced Baylor. They were “up” to 33.3% vs. Creighton. From three-point range, they went a combined 10 of 50 in the two games. At home, that’s not going to happen. The Wildcats have averaged 90.7 points in their three previous home games. Xavier has lost seven in a row here and failed to cover the spread in all seven losses. With four losses already on this season’s resume, Nova can’t afford another. Look for a strong effort at both ends tonight. Lay it! Play on VILLANOVA AAA | |||||||
12-20-21 | Western Carolina v. Georgia -10 | Top | 79-85 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UGA Georgia has had their problems recently, but should roll tonight, at home vs. Western Carolina. The Bulldogs are looking to put an 80-67 loss to George Mason behind them. The loss, which took place Saturday, was here in Athens and the ‘Dawgs were 2.5 point favorites. Falling into a 14-0 hole to start the game was the “death knell” as UGA was playing for the first time in 11 days and first time since losing a second starter to a season-ending injury. We understand the current “state of the program” may not sound great in Athens, but this Western Carolina team that’s paying a visit on Monday is pretty bad. The Catamounts have not played in over a week. Their last game was a one-point loss to UNC-Asheville. Georgia still did a good job on the offensive glass vs. George Mason, but somehow came away with only seven second chance points. Their size advantage in this matchup should result in a lot more inside scoring, whether it’s on first or second chance opportunities. Western Carolina relies heavily on the three, but Georgia’s size will make them struggle in that area tonight. The Bulldogs beat Memphis here earlier this month. There’s no reason to think they can’t blow out this Western Carolina team. Play on GEORGIA AAA | |||||||
12-17-21 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia Tech OVER 129.5 | Top | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER St. Bonaventure and Virginia Tech take the floor Friday for an afternoon tipoff in the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. The Bonnies are 8-2 while Va Tech is 7-4. But despite the superior won-loss record, St. Bonaventure is the underdog in this game. They are just 3-6 ATS, including 0-5 L5 games. While perhaps not all that trustworthy plus the points, the Bonnies have been doing plenty of scoring of late. They’ve averaged 77.8 points in those last five contests, even after being held to just 64 in a loss to UConn last Saturday. That loss to UConn saw them shoot a season-low 38.7% from the field. That was after shooting a season-high 60% in a win over Loyola MD in the previous game. Kyle Lofton, the Bonnies’ leading scorer and part of an all-senior starting lineup, has missed the last three games. But he returned to practice on Monday. Va Tech, like St. Bonaventure, rates in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency. The Hokies have also had their struggles recently, dropping four of their last six games. They too shot it poorly last time out. We’re quite confident that St. Bonaventure, who is 9-2-1 Over off their previous 12 losses, will score a solid number of points today. The total is low and Va Tech is 7-3-1 Over L11 neutral site games. We see this going Over. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake -15 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DRAKE Drake looks to cover the spread for the first time since 11/14! The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, although they’ve won four of them straight up. The level of competition has been stronger than what they’ll face here, a Jackson State team that’s 2-8 and has been to less than 40 points in two different games. The schedule has been murderous so far for Jackson State as they have played nothing but true road games. This is the 11th in a row to start the year as well as the third in the last five days. The Tigers have to be running out gas at this point. They’ve done a decent job of covering the spread (7-3 ATS), but at some point a team has nothing left to give. That’s what we expect the case will be tonight for the road team. Jackson State only averages 56.3 points/game. Drake is averaging 81.3 points/game at home and at some point the Bulldogs HAVE to cover the spread. Why not tonight? Play on DRAKE AAA | |||||||
12-15-21 | Morehead State v. Xavier OVER 135.5 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Xavier comes into tonight ranked #25 in the country and has a 9-1 SU record. Their only loss was to an Iowa State team that’s still undefeated. Since that loss, the Musketeers have not just won - but also covered - five straight games. The most impressive win took place on Saturday when they smoked rival Cincinnati 83-63. We had the Over in that game and will play this game the same way. This time the Musketeers are hosting Morehead State. The Eagles are 6-4 on the year after losing 82-75 at East Tenn State on Saturday. While they may rank first among Ohio Valley Conference teams in scoring defense, slowing down Xavier should be a tougher challenge. The Musketeers have averaged 83.5 points their last four games. Assuming Xavier, at the very least, hits its season average of 75.8 points per game, then all we would need from Morehead State is 62 points, which is below their season average. Asking two teams to hit their season average in points per game doesn’t seem like asking for “too much.” If it happens, then we’ve easily got our Over, a bet which has hit 11 of the previous 16 games where Xavier has been off an ATS win. AAA | |||||||
12-14-21 | Northwestern State v. LSU -34.5 | Top | 49-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still undefeated and should win in a romp tonight. Now you probably already knew that by looking at this pointspread. It is quite high. But Northwestern State truly has zero shot at being competitive in Baton Rouge. The Demons are 2-8, both wins coming in non-lined games. They beat Dallas Christian Saturday. But not all the news was good. A flu bug has made its way through the Northwestern State locker room, affecting both players and coaches. Even at full strength, Northwestern State could not compete here. With players out, tonight’s game should get ugly in a hurry. There have been three games this season that the Demons have lost by 30 or more points. One was to Houston, the only top 15 team they’ve faced. LSU isn’t in the top 15, but probably should be as they’re off to their best start in over 20 years at 9-0. The Tigers’ six home wins have been by more than 30 points/game and they’ve covered the spread every time. They should mirror Houston’s 41 point win over Northwestern State and continue their climb up the rankings. Play on LSU AAA | |||||||
12-13-21 | Cal Poly v. Portland -4.5 | Top | 77-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Portland is looking to bounce back from an upset loss at the hands of VMI ten days ago. The Pilots were five point favorites but lost to the Keydets 90-82. Before that, they had won seven of eight with the only loss coming by three to Montana State. They’d also covered five straight going into the VMI matchup. We like the home team here because they are well rested while visiting Cal Poly is playing a second road game in three days. Cal Poly was able to shoot 54.5% from three in its 61-58 upset over Portland State on Sunday. The Mustangs went into that game as 3.5 point underdogs. It was their second close game in a row after losing by one at San Diego on December 5th. This will be CP’s fourth consecutive road game to start the month. The win at Portland State on Saturday was the first win on the trip. Don’t see them winning two in a row as the three-point shooting from the last game can’t be matched (CP shooting only 30% from three for the year) and Portland’s offense (85.2 points/game) is just too much. CP has scored more than 61 only twice against Division I opponents this season. Play on PORTLAND AAA | |||||||
12-12-21 | Villanova v. Baylor OVER 138.5 | Top | 36-57 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We’ve got what looks to be a heck of a showdown in College Basketball on Sunday as #2 Baylor takes on #6 Villanova in the headliner of the Big 12-Big East Battle. Baylor, last year’s National Champs, is still undefeated at 9-0. They average 84 points/game. The schedule hasn’t all been all that challenging up to this point, but the Bears have scored at least 75 in every game except the one vs. Virginia Commonwealth. They put up a season-high 99 last time out. Villanova happens to be off its season-low point total as they could only manage 67 in a win over Syracuse earlier in the week. But the Wildcats, who are 7-2 on the season, are averaging 78.2 per game. Look for these two national powers to play a high-scoring game on Sunday, much higher scoring than their meeting in the Sweet 16 last March when they combined to go 6 of 36 from three-point range. The Over is 14-4 in Baylor’s last 18 games in Waco. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
12-11-21 | Cincinnati v. Xavier OVER 132 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER City rivals Cincinnati and Xavier renew acquaintances on Saturday evening. Cincinnati is 7-2 with their losses coming to Arkansas and Monmouth. There’s no reason for the Bearcats to hang their heads over losing to Arkansas, the #12 ranked team in the country, on a neutral court. The loss to Monmouth was a little more embarrassing, though it came by only two points and Monmouth has the best ATS record in the country right now. But what matters most to fans of Cincy basketball is their recent futility against Xavier. They’ve lost seven of the last ten matchups and are 0-5 ATS here at Xavier. The Musketeers bring an 8-1 SU record into Saturday. Their only loss was to undefeated Iowa State. Expect bad blood and lots of scoring Saturday night. Xavier just went for 96 points in its last game, a total beatdown of Ball State. The Over is 4-0 the previous four times the Musketeers have been off a win that was by more than 20 points. This total seems low for two teams that average more than 70 points/game. Part of that is the last six Cincinnati games have all stayed Under. But the last five all had totals higher than this one. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
12-11-21 | Penn State v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Fresh off handing Minnesota its first loss, Michigan State returns to East Lansing to play host Penn State on Saturday. The Spartans come in at 8-2. They were seven-point favorites on Wednesday, despite the fact their opponents were undefeated. Consider this a “lesson learned” as we made the mistake of fading Sparty at Minnesota. Tom Izzo's team came out red hot and took a 37-24 lead into halftime. Penn State is not nearly as strong as the Golden Gophers, so with this game being a home game, expect MSU to roll. Penn State’s only other true road game this year resulted in a 25-point loss at UMass. Since then, they are just 4-3. The Nittany Lions lost the Big 10 opener 76-64 to Ohio State before bouncing back with an easy win over Wagner earlier this week. This is a rivalry that Michigan State has dominated with wins in 39 of the 48 all-time meetings. The Spartans already have four wins over Top 40 teams and are 4th in the country in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
12-10-21 | DePaul v. Louisville -7.5 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on L'ville DePaul is off to a pretty impressive 7-1 start. The Blue Demons’ one loss came against Loyola Chicago and that was by only four points. Following that first loss, they rebounded with an impressive 20-point win over Duquesne earlier this week. The Blue Demons’ ATS record matches their SU record as the one time they failed to cover was in an 84-80 win over Western Illinois where they were 9.5 point favorites. Tonight they are underdogs for just the third time this season. While it may seem tempting to take DePaul plus the points in this situation, they are outclassed playing at Louisville. The Cardinals have dominated the head to head series with the Blue Demons, winning 21 of the last 23 meetings. They’re 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against them as the home team. L’ville has two losses but has also played a much more challenging schedule than DePaul has. In their last game, the Cardinals went to NC State and won the ACC opener. They also hold wins over Mississippi State and Maryland in tournament play. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA | |||||||
12-09-21 | Iowa -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA We’ve got an unranked team laying points on the road to a Top 25 opponent that’s also undefeated. That’s quite the statement by the linesmakers. And we agree that Iowa is the better side in this Thursday night matchup. Give Iowa State credit for being 8-0, especially since they’ve been underdogs in three of the previous four games. They pulled upsets over Xavier, Memphis and Creighton. But none of those teams are as strong as the Hawkeyes, who are seeking to end a two-game losing streak tonight. Iowa was 7-0 before facing Purdue, who is now the top ranked team in the country. That was a two-point game in the final three minutes. Then it was a four-point loss to Illinois on Monday. Both those Big 10 opponents are much stronger than Iowa State. Not to be disrespectful to the Cyclones, but the only reason they are ranked is because they are undefeated. They’ve yet to face a team as good as Iowa. This is going to be their first loss of the season and we will lay the points. Play on IOWA AAA | |||||||
12-09-21 | Purdue -12 v. Rutgers | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE For the first time in program history, Purdue will take the court as the #1 ranked team in the country. That obviously puts the proverbial “bulls-eye” on the Boilermakers’ back, but expect THEM to be the more motivated group on Thursday night as they travel to Piscataway to face Rutgers. Not only does Purdue want to prove that it deserves it’s #1 ranking, but they’ve surprisingly lost the last three times they’ve taken on the Scarlet Knights. Coach Matt Painter has made sure to remind his team of the three-game losing streak. Rutgers is just simply no match for a motivated Purdue team that is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging 90.5 points/game. The Scarlet Knights just lost to Illinois by 35, a game where they were dominated on the boards. Being only 4-4 has to be a major disappointment to coach Steve Pikiell as Rutgers was the favorite in every game but the one at Illinois. Star guard Baker is still dealing with a hamstring injury and a flu bug has hit the team as well. Purdue should roll here. Play on PURDUE AAA | |||||||
12-08-21 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINN There are still 12 undefeated teams left in College Basketball. That number is likely to decrease very soon. Five of those 12 unbeatens are in action tonight, two (Arizona & Wyoming) against one another. San Francisco (9-0) is favored, but you’ve also got Weber State (8-0) and Minnesota (7-0) taking the court as underdogs. While this game vs. Michigan State may seem like a logical end point for Minnesota’s unbeaten start, what we are seeing here is a great opportunity to grab the points. At home, the Golden Gophers shouldn’t be getting this many points from a Michigan State team that has two losses. Now those losses were to Kansas and Baylor, so you can’t really fault Sparty for not being unbeaten like Minnesota still is. But the Gophers did just win two tough road games against Pitt and Mississippi State. They were 11.5 point dogs at Miss State and led by as much as 14 points. Being back home - where they are giving up just 49.7 points/game - is huge for this team. Michigan State lost by 25 points here last season. Take the points with Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-52 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE It’s the Big 12 vs. the SEC on Tuesday as #13 Tennessee takes Texas Tech as part of the “Jimmy V Classic” in New York City. We’re surprised that this line is so low, considering that the Vols are ranked. Also, Texas Tech is coming off its first loss of the season, 72-68 at Providence, in what was the Red Raiders first true road game. That was six days ago. Tennessee played over the weekend as they went to Colorado and won 69-54 as six-point favorites. The Vols only loss so far was to #6 Villanova. All six of their wins have been by double digits. We figure this one will be as well. Tennessee is third in the country in defensive efficiency right now and just held Colorado to 34.5% shooting on Saturday. Texas Tech does force a lot of turnovers, but also turns it over a lot themselves. Whereas the Vols have two quality wins already (North Carolina, Colorado), the Red Raiders have nothing of the sort. Play on TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 151.5 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is the second tough game in a row for Iowa as they begin the Big 10 portion of the schedule. They lost to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now, 77-70 on Friday. But the Hawkeyes managed to keep it close despite not having leading scorer Keegan Murray (24.6 points/game), who sat because of a bad ankle. Murray, the nation’s second leading scorer, is expected to be back in the lineup tonight as the Hawkeyes host Illinois. Having Murray back and getting this game in Iowa City should result in Iowa scoring at a rate similar to what we saw from them in their first six games of the season. Even after facing Virginia and Purdue on the road, the Hawkeyes are still averaging 91.0 points/game. That’s third most in the country. At home, they average 97.2 points/game! We can’t say they’ll score that many tonight, but they will score enough to get this one Over the total. Defensively, the Hawkeyes aren’t great, which is a problem facing Illinois when Kofi Cockburn is in the lineup. Cockburn is right behind Murray, averaging 24.0 point/game. He’s missed some games, but the Fighting Illini still are averaging 76.7 points/game and have topped that number in each of their last three games, scoring 94, 82 and 86. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
12-05-21 | Arizona -11 v. Oregon State | Top | 90-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona is a strong team and should easily be able to defeat Pac 12 rival Oregon State by double digits. At 6-0, the Wildcats are one of 12 unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. They are one of the highest ranked as well with #4 Baylor and #10 Arkansas the only undefeated teams above them in the top 25. The Wildcats haven’t just been winning either. They’ve been blowing out every opponent. Their six wins have been by an average of 33.8 points/game. There was one close game, a four-win over Wichita State, but all others have been by at least 18 points. The last time ‘Zona was on the court, they blew out Sacramento State 105-59 as a 29-point favorite. In addition to being the conference opener, this will be the Wildcats' first true road game. They could not have asked for a better opponent as Oregon State has dropped seven in a row since opening the season with a 73-64 victory over Portland State. The Beavers have certainly had their share of close defeats - three by three points or less - but they also just lost by 12 at Cal on Thursday. Arizona has been off for a full week and played just one game in the last two weeks. They are rested and simply better. Last year’s trip here to Corvallis resulted in a 34-point win. The home team has no chance here. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 160.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s a battle of 7-0 teams in the Big 10 Friday. Iowa and Purdue both handled their business in the Big 10/ACC Championship Game earlier this week. Iowa beat Virginia 75-74 while Purdue crushed Florida State 93-65. What may make this a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes is they are just 98th in defensive efficiency. Purdue, who is the home team here, ranks 1st in the country in offensive efficiency. But not far behind them is tonight’s visitor, who is 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency (a measure of how many points a team scores per possession). So expect this to be a high-scoring affair Friday night in West Lafayette. The 75 points that Iowa scored in the last game was a season-low, if you can believe it. With the team they beat (Virginia) playing at the slowest tempo in the country, it makes sense that the Hawkeyes scored a season-low. But they average 94.0 points/game and Purdue plays at a much more reasonable tempo. The Boilermakers also average 92.4 points/game. The oddsmakers can’t make this total high enough, in our eyes. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
12-01-21 | Michigan v. North Carolina +2 | Top | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N CAROLINA At one time, Michigan was ranked as high as #4 in the country. But Juwan Howard’s team has already lost twice (to Seton Hall and Arizona) and hardly looked impressive as 21-point favorites last week in a 64-54 win over Tarleton State. Tonight finds the Wolverines playing their first “true” road game of the year and it’s in Chapel Hill, part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. So far the Big 10 has largely dominated this event, taking six of the eight head to head matchups, including Ohio State beating #1 Duke last night. North Carolina is 0-6 ATS coming into this game, tying them with William & Mary for the most ATS losses without a win this season. But getting this game at home is pretty huge for the Tar Heels. Michigan is down to #24 in the rankings and turns the ball over too much, even when facing bad teams. They turned it over 20 times vs. Prairie View A&M and 21 times vs. Tarleton State. If UNC, who comes in averaging 83.2 points/game, can be disruptive enough at the defensive end, then they will pull the “upset.” The Tar Heels are off their best defensive effort of the season as they held UNC Asheville to 53 points on 26.5% shooting a week ago. Take the points. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
11-30-21 | Florida State v. Purdue UNDER 143.5 | Top | 65-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Big Ten drew first blood last night against the ACC, taking both games in this annual “Challenge.” The event really kicks into “high gear” on Tuesday with six games, including one featuring the Big Ten’s “best,” that being #2 ranked Purdue. The Boilermakers are 6-0 and host a Florida State team that is 5-1 with a couple of close wins. One of those close wins took place last Wednesday when the Seminoles needed overtime to scrape by Boston U 81-80 as 17.5 point favorites. Purdue has covered the number four straight times, including neutral court wins over North Carolina and Villanova. So this looks to be a challenge for FSU. We don’t like the idea of laying points though. What we do like is the Under. Florida State is going to be without three players, two of them starters - PG Evans and C Ngom. The Boilermakers are holding opponents to 56.5 points on 34.3% shooting here in West Lafayette. But the Seminoles also are holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 63 points/game. That last score (the one vs. Boston U) is misleading because the game went into OT. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
11-29-21 | Tarleton St v. Gonzaga -30.5 | Top | 55-64 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GONZAGA Gonzaga just suffered what was only their second loss since the start of LAST season. Duke beat them 84-81 in Las Vegas Friday night. Of course, the only other Gonzaga loss in the last two years came in April’s National Championship Game against Baylor. They obviously did not get a chance to immediately bounce back from that one. But they can bounce back here. Considering who the opponent is, this could get ugly in a hurry. Tarleton State isn’t any good to begin with and they are in the wrong place at the wrong time as far as we’re concerned. The last four times Gonzaga has been off a loss, they have covered the spread in the next game. Tarleton State has yet to even beat a Division I opponent this season (0-5). The Texans will have no answers here for a team that beat UCLA by 20 last week. Gonzaga already has three wins by 34 or more points this year. Play on GONZAGA AAA | |||||||
11-26-21 | Baylor -5.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BAYLOR This is the Final in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament with #6 Baylor taking on Michigan State. Baylor was able to overcome a bit of a sloppy first half (13 turnovers) yesterday and beat VCU 69-61, just barely covering the 5.5 point spread. The Bears are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss came as 33 point favorites in the opening game. The opponent here is Michigan State, who upset UConn 64-60 (as 2.5 point dogs) on Thursday, thanks to scoring the game’s final nine points. The Spartans are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. The only team they lost to was Kansas (first game) and they also failed to cover Wednesday vs. Loyola Chicago. This is the third game in three days for both Baylor and Michigan State. Sparty’s two games have been decided by a total of six points. After two close calls like that, we’re just not sure they’ll have enough left in the tank to survive a vastly superior opponent. Baylor has won 31 straight non-conference games. Yesterday was probably the Bears’ weakest performance to date and they still won fairly comfortably. MSU is still only 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 neutral site games. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
11-24-21 | California Baptist v. Texas -22 | Top | 44-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Texas is 3-1 and ranked #8 in the country. That one loss came to Gonzaga, so no one is going to fault them for that. Tonight the Longhorns host an undefeated Cal Baptist team that is playing on the road for the first time in 2021. The Lancers’ previous five games - against San Francisco St, Miss Valley, Jackson St, San Jose St and Northern Colorado have simply not adequately prepared them for what’s in store here. Texas is giving up just 47.3 points/game when not facing Gonzaga this year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but have an efficient offense that is 16th in points per possession. On Saturday against San Jose State, the ‘Horns led by 18 just nine minutes into the game and by 30 at halftime. They ended up winning by 34 and held SJSU to 31.9 percent shooting from the floor. Even more impressive is that Texas forced 27 turnovers and had a season-high 16 steals. At the same time, they connected at just over 51% at the offensive end and had 36 points in the paint. The home team is simply going to overwhelm the opposition in this one. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
11-24-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is today’s first tip in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, which takes place down in the Bahamas. We’ve got two programs accustomed to success. After going 26-5 last season and making it to the Sweet 16, Loyola Chicago is off to a 4-0 start. The Ramblers have won all four of those games by double digits, but it’s a step up in competition today as they face Michigan State, who has posted three straight double digit wins for Tom Izzo (following a season opening loss to Kansas). While former coach Porter Moser is now in Oklahoma, Loyola has most of its key players back from last year’s run to the Sweet 16 - save for Cameron Krutwig - and remains an elite defensive team. What we are expecting here though is for the Ramblers to cool off from three-point range. So far, they have shot 45.2% from behind the arc. That’s simply not going to continue. Michigan State is a top three defensive team in the country right now, allowing just 35.2% shooting overall. The Spartans' size is likely to cause problems for the Loyola shooters. After four straight Overs to start the year, the Ramblers are going to stay Under in this one in what should be a tight, defensive-minded affair. The Under is 5-1 in MSU’s last six games as a dog. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
11-23-21 | Gonzaga v. UCLA OVER 154.5 | Top | 83-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Taking the Over the last time UCLA faced Gonzaga worked out pretty well. Now we obviously remember that game went to overtime. But the Over was already “in the bag” by the end of regulation with the game tied 81-81. Despite losing three starters from a team that went 31-1 (only loss in the National Championship Game), Gonzaga is averaging 93.2 points/game so far this year and just hit triple digits (107) last night against Central Michigan. The fewest points scored by the Bulldogs in any game this season is 84. UCLA is averaging 90.8 points through its first five games. Last night against Bellarmine they scored a season-low 75 as they were 8 of 27 on three-pointers and made just one free throw the entire game. Not only are these the two top teams in the country, both rank in the top ten in scoring nationally (Gonzaga #2, UCLA #8). It should be another high scoring game from these two as the Over is 23-8 when Gonzaga is off a straight up win by more than 20 points (they won by 53 on Monday). Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
11-22-21 | Butler v. Houston -9 | Top | 52-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This is a first round matchup in the Maui Invitational (which is being played in Las Vegas). We’ve got Butler facing Houston, two programs that have been to Final Fours. Of course, it’s been a decade since Butler advanced that far. Houston was in the Final Four last year and bowed out to eventual National Champion Baylor in the Semifinal. The Cougars are ranked #15 in the poll right now and is 3-0. They just wasted Virginia 67-47 in their last game, which was six days ago. Butler lost the following day (Wednesday), 73-52 to Michigan State, and is now 3-1 on the year. Our view is that Butler just isn’t in Houston’s class. Houston leads all AAC teams with 10.3 three pointers made per game. Defensively, the Cougars are just as impressive. They held Virginia to 34.9% shooting and forced 17 turnovers. The game was never close as UH jumped out to an early 14-2 lead and was up 13 at halftime. They led by double digits the entire second half. As for Butler, the loss to Michigan State was their largest margin of defeat at home in 29 years. They shot 28.6% and had only eight assists. The size of the Spartans was clearly an issue and it should be the same thing here with Houston. This is a bad matchup at a bad time for Butler. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
11-18-21 | Ohio State -2 v. Xavier | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO ST In-state rivals play Wednesday in Cincinnati as Xavier hosts #17 Ohio State. As short home underdogs, the Musketeers are probably thinking upset here, but we like the Buckeyes to handle their business in their first “real” test of the 2021-22 season. So far OSU has gone through Akron, Niagara and Bowling Green. Their margins of victory have continued to grow, culminating in a 31-point triumph over BG on Monday. Ten players scored for the Buckeyes in that win, five finishing in double digits. The bench scored 39 points and the team shot over 50%. It was their best game to date. Xavier is 2-0 with wins over Niagara and Kent State. The Musketeers could only beat Niagara by three while OSU beat them by 10. While that’s just one common opponent, you’ve also got the fact that OSU is 9-1 ATS in its previous 10 road games. Xavier hasn’t shot the ball well so far and figures to get outworked on the glass. Play on OHIO STATE AAA | |||||||
11-17-21 | Boston College v. Rhode Island -5 | Top | 49-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This a 10* on RHODE ISLAND Rhode Island has been an 8.5-point favorite for both of their games thus far. They covered the spread each time, beating Boston U 71-62 and then Bryant 83-64. While that first game ended up being relatively close, at least as far as the pointspread was concerned, the Rams led the whole way and were never really threatened. It was a more complete performance in the second game with them blowing out Bryant in the second half. Over the last 15 minutes of the game, URI went on a 37-18 run. Boston College comes in at 3-0 and also covered the number in its first two games. But then they failed as 10-point favorites against Fairfield, winning only 72-64. This is the Eagles first time playing on the road. They are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two years. Rhode Island has won 20 of its previous 26 home games. Somebody is going to lose for the first time and we believe it will be BC as Rhode Island’s defense is #1 in the nation right now, holding teams to 30.6% shooting! Play on RHODE ISLAND AAA | |||||||
11-16-21 | Creighton +3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CREIGHTON In-state rivals get set for their annual meeting as Creighton makes the drive from Omaha to Lincoln to take on Nebraska. Obviously, we know which school has more of a “national presence.” But when it comes to basketball, Creighton has taken over the Cornhusker State. While they trailed at halftime in both games, the Bluejays do enter this game at 2-0 on the young season. Nebraska is 1-1 and lucky not to be 0-2. After losing at home to Western Illinois last week, the ‘Huskers were down 10 early to Sam Houston State on Friday. That was also a home game. Creighton and Nebraska are a combined 0-4 ATS so far but the Bluejays have not been underdogs previous to this. The defense effort in their last game (just 44 points allowed) was the best by any Creighton team in eight seasons, at least against a D-I opponent. These teams played in Omaha last year and Creighton won by 24. Not enough has changed in a year to justify Nebraska being favored here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA | |||||||
11-15-21 | Robert Morris v. Ohio OVER 143.5 | Top | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Robert Morris is still looking for its first win of the season. The Colonials are 0-2 with the losses coming to UCF and Kentucky. It’s definitely not a surprise that they are winless. RMU was getting 16 against UCF (covered) and then 23 against Kentucky. They’ve only scored 59.5 points/game, but did just give up 100 to UK on Thursday. Ohio is 2-0 with wins over Belmont and Cleveland State. The Bobcats put up 92 in the opener before turning in a solid effort at the defensive end vs. CSU, holding the Vikings to 56 points on 38% shooting. Opening the season with three straight road games where you’re a double digit underdog is tough. That’s the situation RMU faces here. We are unsure if they can get the cash like they did vs. UCF, but do expect this to be the Colonials' highest scoring game of the season so far. They’ve shot poorly in each of the first two games, particularly from three-point range where they are at just 24.4 percent. You’ve got to think that number will improve. Ohio shouldn’t have any issues scoring in this game either as they face a team that just gave up 100 points. The Over is 20-8 in RMU’s last 28 games and 10-3 in Ohio’s last 13 home games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
11-13-21 | Dartmouth v. Georgetown -16 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on G'town This is Georgetown’s first game. In case you’d forgotten, the Hoyas made an incredible run to the NCAA Tournament last March by winning the Big East Tournament as an 8-seed. They won four games in four days. However, it ended up being a short stay in the Big Dance as G’town was bounced in the opening round by Colorado, 96-73. A lot of the top talent from that team is now gone, but we still expect the Hoyas to handle their business here against Dartmouth. The Big Green have already played a game this season and it was a 72-57 loss to Boston College. They were never really in it as the halftime score was 42-19. Dartmouth shot just 37.5% overall from the field and 20.7% from behind the arc. As was the case with Iowa yesterday, we don’t think the dropoff with Georgetown will be quite as severe as the oddsmakers seem to. This should be a very easy opening game for the more talented side. Dartmouth hasn’t finished with a winning record in over 20 years. Georgetown is 7-0 ATS L7 home games against teams with a losing road record. Play on GEORGETOWN AAA | |||||||
11-12-21 | UMKC v. Iowa -20 | Top | 57-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA UMKC (Kansas City) will really be up against it on Friday as they travel to Iowa City to face the heavily favored Hawkeyes. This is already the second game against a Big 10 team for UMKC. They lost to Minnesota by a score of 71-56 on Tuesday. In that game, the Roos did not cover the spread as they were only 6.5 point underdogs. Oddsmakers like their chances here even less and so do we. Iowa is not the same team they were last year (no Luke Garza) but should certainly “handle its business” in this game. The Hawkeyes scored 106 points in the season opener vs. Longwood, so there’s not going to be that big of a dropoff at the offensive end. Iowa did cover the number vs. Longwood, so they are now 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games. This should be another big win for them as they look to start the season strong. Play on IOWA AAA | |||||||
11-12-21 | Northeastern v. Georgia State UNDER 143 | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Georgia State opened its season with a very easy 97-37 victory over a non-DI school (Brewton Parker). Northeastern wasn’t as fortunate on Tuesday as they lost 65-58 to Colgate. The Huskies also just missed out on covering the spread as they were 6.5-point underdogs. It was not a solid night at the offensive end as they made only 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 14 from three. Northeastern did earn a share of the CAA regular season title last season. But they lost their top player to the transfer portal. The good news is that on the defensive end, the Huskies held Colgate to 39.3% shooting. It was a game they could have won as they were up by two at half. Georgia State is not going to score 97 again on Friday as they are facing a “real” opponent for the first time. The Panthers will also give up more than the 37 they allowed in the first game. But don’t expect this game to go Over the total. The Under is 11-4 the last 15 times N’eastern has been a road underdog. In the second game of the year, both teams will struggle to make shots. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
11-11-21 | Air Force v. South Dakota UNDER 135.5 | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER There’s nothing quite like opening the College Basketball season at 12:30 local time on a Thursday. But that’s the case here in Vermillion as South Dakota hosts Air Force. Expect a low scoring affair in this afternoon's tilt. Air Force was bottom five in the country last year in scoring as they averaged only 58.7 points/game. The fact that the service academy has a height restriction makes sense for flying planes but not for playing basketball. There was a really “learning curve” for the Falcons last season as new coach Joe Scott brough the “Princeton offense” to Colorado Springs. The team really didn’t have the personnel to run the offense effectively. Don’t expect a ton of improvement this year. South Dakota lost its two top players from last season’s squad, so they’ll be scrambling at the offensive end as well. Key to the Coyotes’ success last year was shooting 38.9% from three-point range. They aren’t likely to be that prolific again in 2021-22, at least in the early portion of the campaign. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
11-10-21 | Robert Morris v. UCF -18 | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF This is the first ever meeting between Robert Morris and UCF. The home team is a big favorite and justifiably so. RMU had a tough maiden year in the Horizon League last season. They won only four games total and finished with their worst overall record in 11 years. Improving this season will be tough, at least early on, as the team’s best player from last year (AJ Bramah) transferred to Nevada. Bramah averaged 21 points and 10 rebounds for the Colonials. There are four new starters overall as the second leading scorer from last year is also gone. RMU ranked 324th in points allowed in 2020-21 so it’s not just the offensive end where they will struggle in this game. Central Florida returns most of its roster and should be healthier than they were a year ago when injuries were a problem. RMU has covered only one of the last six times it’s been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24 points. Lay it! Play on UCF AAA | |||||||
11-09-21 | Siena v. St Bonaventure -19.5 | Top | 47-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE St. Bonaventure opens its season at home against Sienna. The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 last season with an 11-4 record in conference play and were 16-5 overall. They won the Conference Tournament to earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. There they would lose in the first round to LSU 76-61. This team has all the ingredients not just to get back to the NCAA Tournament, but to be even better in 2022. The Bonnies have five seniors on the roster including two All-Conference selections in Lofton and Osunniyi. They are 22-7-2 against the spread in their previous 31 home games. While it's a somewhat sizable number tonight, we think they cover. Siena did share the regular season MAAC championship last year, but doesn’t look as strong coming into the new season. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE AAA | |||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR We’ve ridden Baylor each of the last three rounds. They were our top Sweet 16 side (beat Villanova 62-51 as 7.5-point favorites), our top Elite 8 side (beat Arkansas 81-72 as 7.5-point favorites), then were our *10* NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR when they walloped Houston 78-59 (as 5-point favorites) in Saturday’s Final Four. Now the Bears are underdogs for the first time all season as they play undefeated Gonzaga for the National Championship. We saw Saturday that the Zags are not infallible. While UCLA may not have been your “normal 11-seed,” Gonzaga needed OT and an all-time buzzer beater to get by. This despite shooting 58.7% for the game. Baylor has basically led start to finish in four of their five tournament games (‘Nova was the exception to that). They’ve lost only two games this season and both came shortly after a three-week pause due to COVID-19. They are over that now. The five tournament wins have been by an average of 15.2 points/game. While the Bears haven’t been underdogs in any game in 2020-21, they are 16-6 ATS L22 times in that role. Can they win this game? Absolutely. So we’ll take the points as Baylor is #1 in the country in three-point shooting and should also have their way inside the paint. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Gonzaga looks unstoppable as they go for the 1st National Championship in program history. They are massive favorites against UCLA Saturday as you just don’t see a double digit spread in the Final Four very often. But it’s the total that has our attention in this National Semifinal. While both teams are 3-1 Under their last four games, this has the potential to be a pretty high-scoring affair. We need not remind you that Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 91.6 points/game. They have scored at least 83 in all four Tournament games. This number will likely end up closing as the third lowest total for any Gonzaga game this season. UCLA being off such a low-scoring game (they beat Michigan 51-49 in the Elite Eight) is a big reason for that. But the Bruins scored plenty in the first four Tourney games (remember they were in the First Four). Yes, two of those games went to OT. But they still hit 65 in regulation in all of them and twice hit 73. Those kinds of numbers are reasonable for tonight and should they get there, this game will easily go Over. Gonzaga likes to play fast and UCLA is 5-1 Over this season when the total is 140 to 149.5. Gonzaga is shooting almost 55% from the field and only one of their last 11 games saw a fewer number of total points than this total. Their games average 160.1 total points. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Houston did not defeat a single team seeded higher than 10th in its region. They faced 15-seed Cleveland State first, whom they destroyed, but have had close calls with Rutgers and Oregon State, who were seeded 10th and 12th respectively. In between they did easily beat 11-seed Syracuse. Still, that’s an amazingly easy run of opponents. Now they face Baylor, who has been considered the second best team in America most of this College Basketball season. Baylor has won all four NCAA Tournament games by at least nine points. They had a big lead on Arkansas in the Elite Eight. Really, the only close call was vs. Villanova. The Bears are a far more dynamic offensive team than anybody Houston has previously faced, not just in the Tournament but the whole season. The Cougars have faced just one top 30 team all year (Texas Tech) and that was back in November. The fact Baylor leads the country in three-point shooting percentage is key. With Houston, it’s a concern that they have not shot better than 39% in any of the last three games. Unlike when they faced those past opponents, it will take a good number of points for Houston to cover here. We don’t think they’re up to it. It seems destined that we’re headed for a Gonzaga vs. Baylor final and we will lay the points here with a team that has lost only two games all season, despite facing significantly better competition than Houston. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga OVER 153 | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Much has been made of USC’s defense in this Tournament. The Trojans have allowed 58.3 points per game and none of the three teams they’ve faced have been able to shoot better than 37.7 percent. But none of those teams were Gonzaga. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring at 91.8 points per game and have scored 98, 87 and 83 in their three Tournament games. They shot almost 60 percent from the field against Creighton in the Sweet 16 win. The only concern here for Gonzaga is that they better shoot well again because USC has also been scoring at a high rate. The last two games have seen the Trojans make 57% of their shots and that includes 21 of 35 on three-pointers! So this should be quite the high scoring game in the Elite 8 as both teams should score at least 80. The Over is 39-17 in Gonzaga’s last 56 games and they are an astronomical 55% overall this year! USC is 6-3 Over after a game where they scored 80 or more points. Gonzaga likes to play fast and as a result, this one goes Over. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Two of the teams Arkansas has beaten to get here were seeded 14 or lower. That’s quite atypical for a team in the Elite 8. In fact, it’s happened only one other time in the Tournament’s history (Florida in 2013). Furthermore, the Razorbacks have won by the narrowest of margins the last two games, beating Texas Tech 68-66 and Oral Roberts 72-70. They trailed almost the whole way against Oral Roberts (a 15-seed) before Davonte Davis made the game-winner in the final three seconds. We anticipate the Hogs having lots of trouble here against a Baylor team that leads the country in three-point shooting. Arkansas was lucky that Oral Roberts uncharacteristically struggled from deep. Baylor has had the harder path to get here, yet has looked more impressive in wins over Wisconsin and Villanova. We used them as our top Sweet 16 selection and they rewarded us there. The Bears are the top three-point shooting team in the country, but were just 3 for 19 from behind the arc against ‘Nova. They should improve here as Arkansas is only 138th in 3-point defense. The last two teams Baylor faced liked to play at very slow tempos, very different from Arkansas, but the Bears still are averaging 72.3 points per game in the Tournament. Baylor is the better team here and should send Arkansas packing quite easily. The Razorbacks won’t have the rebounding edge they enjoyed vs. Oral Roberts. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 78 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oregon has gone Over in eight straight games. We like them to make it 10 against USC in the Sweet 16. Now the last time a Ducks’ game stayed Under, it was against USC. That regular season matchup saw them lose 72-58 in LA. Though they made 7 of 17 three-point attempts, the Ducks were an unsightly 16 of 40 on two-point attempts. That percentage will certainly improve in Sunday’s rematch, even though USC has done an excellent job on defense so far in the Tournament and really all season. With the teams combining for 130 in the first meeting, we only a handful more to send this one Over. Considering they combined to go just 13 of 22 from the charity stripe last month, we should get some more points there in this one. You also can’t forget that Oregon just dropped 95 points on Iowa in their last game. USC has scored 72 and 85 in their two games and shot 57.1% against Kansas. Oregon shot 55% vs. Iowa. Both USC opponents have shot worse than 30%. That can’t continue. The Over is 6-1-1 for USC following a SU win. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama OVER 145.5 | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 75 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER UCLA had to win three times last weekend. This first one wasn’t easy as they needed overtime to get by Michigan State in the “First Four.” But the Bruins then looked dominant against 6-seed BYU and 14-seed Abilene Christian. Defense was the key against Abilene Christian as only 44 points were allowed. But that was a 14-seed. Now UCLA faces Alabama, who just hung 96 points on Maryland in its Round of 32 game. The Crimson Tide are going for just the second Elite Eight appearance in program history. Nate Oats won’t ever be confused for Nick Saban but the Tide’s second year coach has done a great job at Tuscaloosa. Bama basically averages 80 points per game, a number they have matched or exceeded in four of their last six games. They like to play fast. UCLA does not, but it remains to be seen if they can control the tempo. UCLA does shoot the three well (37%) and Bama allowed Maryland to shoot 53% overall (37% from three). The Terps got to 77 points even though they attempted only seven free throws and made just three. The Over is 8-1 for Alabama following a game where they scored 90 or more points. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU Nine Big Ten teams made the NCAA Tournament. Eight bowed out in the first two rounds. The only one to make the Sweet 16 is top seed Michigan, who will play 4-seed Florida State. The Seminoles have looked pretty good so far in their two games, shooting 52% overall while holding the opposition right around 33%.. They never trailed against UNC Greensboro and were only briefly behind Colorado (early in the first half). All season long, the ‘Noles have defended well, allowing a 39.3 overall FG% which includes 32.3% from three. Michigan is a top 20 offense in FG% and top 10 in efficiency, but they’ll be missing second leading scorer Isaiah Livers and that is a significant loss. It’s not as if FSU isn’t impressive at the offensive end in its own right. They score 78 points per game, which is more than the Wolverines average for the year. Michigan trailed much of the way against LSU, a team with size and length similar to Florida State. FSU is better than LSU. Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers and that’s how you beat the Seminoles. The loss of Livers will loom large. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE The last six games have seen Syracuse go 5-1 and the only loss was by three. They are 6-0 ATS in those six games. Now they have a Sweet 16 appointment with Houston, a team on a nine-game win streak. But the Cougars almost didn’t get here as they barely got by Rutgers in the second round. Syracuse also won its Round of 32 game by only three points, but they were in better control throughout. Led by Buddy Boeheim (Jim’s son) averaging 28 points his last four games, the Orange offense has been lights out. Boeheim is shooting 60% those last four games and 55% from three-point range. In the NCAA Tournament, Syracuse has shot 55.3% and 51.9%. But their zone defense has been just as important to the success as unfamiliar opponents aren’t used to facing it. Expect Houston to struggle to make shots against the zone. They shot 37% against Rutgers and that’s why they were down nine with five minutes to go. In their last four wins, Syracuse has allowed the following field goal percentages: 33.9, 36.2, 35.8, 37.1. Tough to lose when your opponents aren’t shooting well. Syracuse at least covers and we give them a shot at winning as well. Play on SYRACUSE AAA | |||||||
03-27-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor seems to be over his hangover from a 3-week (COVID-19) layoff, no? The Bears have beaten Hartford and Wisconsin pretty handily to get here and that win over Wisconsin was especially impressive. They basically led the whole way and were up by 18 at one point. They’ve shot the three well in both games, turned it over just four times vs. the Badgers and have played great defense throughout (59 points/game allowed). Villanova has only had to beat a 12 and a 13-seed to get here. They’ve been much better than people thought they’d be, but don’t forget Colin Gillespie is out. Our guess is this is where they miss their star point guard. The fact that the Wildcats play a similar style on offense compared to Wisconsin means Baylor won’t have to change the gameplan much. It’s all about forcing the opponent into taking jump shots and turning the ball over. Given ‘Nova doesn’t have Gillespie, turnovers are likely to be an issue in this one. By the way, Baylor is the best three-point shooting team in the country. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | USC v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 85-51 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas is the higher seed, but an underdog to USC. We like the Jayhawks to cover (and thus almost certainly win) this second round battle. They scored 93 points against Eastern Washington, so it’s going to be much different here for USC than it was playing Drake, who shot only 19 percent in the second half Saturday. Going back to the beginning of February, Kansas has really been one of the best teams in the whole country. They’re 9-1 in the L10 games with the one loss coming by three points at Texas. We are really a bit shocked that they are the underdogs here. USC was lucky in the first round as they were playing a team coming off an exhausting win in the “First Four” just 48 hours earlier. Prior to defeating Drake, USC had just two wins over NCAA Tournament teams in its last 11 games and one of those was a giant comeback (vs UCLA) that they won by a single point. Kansas had four wins over NCAA Tournament teams during that same stretch, one of which was against top seeded Baylor. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State -120 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FSU (money line) Florida State was able to win its first round game by 10 points despite not making a single three-point shot. Colorado won its first round game by 23, but made 16 three-pointers and was better than 60% overall from the field. The Buffaloes go from facing a .500 Georgetown team to arguably the best team in the ACC. FSU did have a double digit advantage over UNC Greensboro for much of the first round game and never trailed. Like Colorado, the Seminoles got off to a hot start (led 23-7), but the difference was they led the underdog back into the game. We think that’s created some value and we’ll take the Noles to win the game outright here as there just is no way that Colorado is going to play as well as they did against the Hoyas. CU has been an underdog four times this season and only won once. Play FLORIDA STATE (MONEY LINE) AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Creighton was not particularly impressive in a 63-62 win over Cal Santa Barbara on Saturday. We faded them and got the cash as the Gauchos were 7.5 point underdogs. Really, the Bluejays never really threatened to cover the spread and we thought UCSB kind of threw the game away late. Now it’s a chance to take the points against Creighton again, this time with Ohio, an upset winner in the first round over defending National Champion Virginia. The Bobcats were able to win that game despite shooting only 7 of 23 from behind the arc. Save for an ugly home loss to Buffalo on Feb 27, Ohio has been excellent the last two months. They are 10-1 the last 11 games, both straight up and against the spread. They’ve got two quality players in Ben Vander Plas and Jason Preston. The Bobcats’ ATS record in neutral site games is 5-0 in 2021 and considering that Creighton’s last three games have produced two wins by a total of three points and a loss by 25, taking the points here is a no brainer. We give Ohio an excellent shot at winning this game straight up. Play on OHIO AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Oral Roberts +8.5 v. Florida | Top | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORAL ROBERTS Florida grinded out an OT victory against Virginia Tech in the first round. We had them on the money line, so that was a positive result for us. Oral Roberts still being alive is something very few could have predicted as they stunned 2-seed Ohio State, also in overtime. While the Eagles improbable run very well could come to an end on Sunday, we like them plus the points. Florida has major injury issues. Tyree Appleby left the Va Tech game with a facial laceration. Omar Payne got himself suspended (by the team) for dishing out a flagrant elbow in the SEC Tournament. Both are questionable for this game. Note this is all in addition to the team already playing without Keyontae Johnson, who collapsed on the court early in the season. Oral Roberts has the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas, who averages 24.2 points/game. He went for 29 against Ohio State. Florida isn’t as strong as Ohio State, even when at their healthiest, which they’re not right now. Oral Roberts has covered five straight games and this is too many points. Play on ORAL ROBERTS AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Texas Tech -125 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS TECH (ML) Texas Tech meets Arkansas in second round action and it’s a situation where the #6 seed is favored over the #3. Arkansas was a trendy pick to get upset in their first round matchup with Colgate. We even took the Patriots and for a while there it was looking rather good as they held an early 14-point lead. But it would not last. The Razorbacks fought back to take the lead at halftime and ended up winning by 17, easily covering the 9.5-point number. Things will not be that easy today vs. Texas Tech, who looked great against Utah State in the first round. We were on the Red Raiders as they held the Aggies to just 53 points and, like Arkansas, really dominated the second half. It’s a short spread, but we feel the ML is the better bet in this one. Arkansas has lost four of the five games it has been an underdog in this season. Texas Tech has now won six of its last seven NCAA Tournament games, the only loss coming in the 2019 Title Game to Virginia, which went to overtime. In 2018, they made a run to the Elite Eight, so it’s actually a 9-2 NCAA Tourney run. Look for the Red Raiders to frustrate the Hogs by slowing the pace of the game down. Play on TEXAS TECH (MONEY LINE) AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois OVER 133 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
THis is an 8* on OVER Emotions should be high for this in-state battle of Top 25 teams. Loyola Chicago probably should have been seeded higher, though they did have trouble ousting undermanned Georgia Tech in the first round. The Ramblers won that game 71-60 (they pulled away late) despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to shoot 57.4%. Now they face top seeded Illinois, who shot 57.1% in its 78-49 dismantling of Drexel on Friday. We know Loyola usually plays great defense, but there’s a big difference between the Missouri Valley and one of the best teams in College Basketball. The Fighting Illini average 81.3 points/game and while this is a high O/U for a Loyola game, it’s relatively low for what they’re used to seeing in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini have had only two games this season close with totals in the 130’s. Both were vs. Wisconsin and both went Over. The Over is 6-0 for Loyola this season following a non-conference game and the only previou two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21, the game also went Over. Both teams shoot better than 50% overall from the field. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We don’t see Texas, a 3-seed, having any difficulty getting by Abilene Christian in the first round of the NCAA Tourney and are quite shocked that this is a single digit spread. The Longhorns are 5-0 the last five games - both straight up and against the spread. They won the Big 12 Tournament, getting by the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, both of whom were winners yesterday. Abilene Christian hasn’t beaten anyone, well outside of the Southland Conference. They did play both Texas Tech and Arkansas relatively tough back in December, but the spotlight shines brighter this time of year. Every game during Texas’ current win streak was either on the road or at a neutral site. That’s impressive. Yes, we’re well aware of the fact the Longhorns have gone 0-9 ATS their previous nine Tournament appearances, seven of those coming as a favorite. But knowledge of that streak should have the players plenty motivated heading into the nightcap on Saturday. Look for the ‘Horns to win by double digits. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Missouri v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 118 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma has not been good at the pay window for a while now. Boomer Sooner hasn’t covered a game since a 91-90 upset win in Morgantown (West Virginia) all the way back on February 13th. The ATS losing streak is now at seven, but we think the Sooners got a good first round draw here with Missouri, who also sputtered down the stretch. Mizzou went from being ranked to somewhat of an also-ran in the SEC by losing six of its last nine games straight up. Two of the three wins were by two and three points, so their record could be even worse. It is crazy to think that both of these teams were ranked in the top 10 at the same time a little over a month ago. OU is going to be without its second leading scorer Saturday. But we can’t discount a team that beat four Top 10 opponents this year, three of them consecutively, despite being short-handed at times. One of those Top 10 teams that they defeated was SEC Champion Alabama. Four of the Sooners’ last five losses came by five points or less, so if they had some better luck there they would have ended up with a much higher seed. We just don’t like Missouri (nothing personal!) and want to fade them. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS their L5 Tournament games. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Creighton | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 114 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UCSB It’s been a bad month for Creighton. Their head coach had to take a leave for making an insensitive remark to his players and when he came back to coach, the Bluejays promptly got run out of the gym by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament Final. That 25-point loss very well could have a carryover effect here as Creighton faces Cal Santa Barbara, a dangerous 12-seed that has won 18 out of its last 19 games. In the month of March, the Gauchos won four of their five games by 14 or more points. It’s going to be very tough for Creighton to gain any real separation in this matchup as they aren’t very good defensively. The Bluejays’ NCAA Tournament history is not good. They are 4-12 ATS in all Tourney games and lost their last three straight up. UCSB has won 20 or more games the last four seasons. So they are used to winning. We already saw one 12-seed win in this year’s Tournament. Grab the points in this one. Play on CAL SANTA BARBARA AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure v. LSU OVER 144 | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -111 | 112 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER LSU came up one point short in the SEC Tournament Championship, but if there’s one thing we can count on from the Tigers, it’s that they’ll score in bunches. They average 82.1 points/game, the eighth most in all of College Basketball. In their last 10 games, the Tigers have scored a minimum of 75 points. That’s the good news. The bad news is they gave up more than 70 in all but two of those 10 games. So expect St. Bonaventure, champions of the Atlantic 10 Conference, to score plenty on Saturday afternoon as well. The Bonnies scored 75, 71 and 74 in their three-game A-10 Tourney run. We find it very likely that both teams will score at least 70 points in this one. The Over is 6-1 in St. Bonaventure’s last seven neutral site games. The Over is 7-1 the last eight games where LSU was the favorite. Between these teams, there are nine double digit scorers. This is a really low total for an LSU game. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +11 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 111 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EWU There is no denying the fact Kansas closed the season strong. The Jayhawks will arrive at the NCAA Tournament having won eight of their last nine games. The one loss was by three at Texas. But they were forced to withdraw from the Big 12 Tournament because of a positive COVID-19 test and that kind of disruption can certainly have an adverse effect on the team here. Eastern Washington is the first round opponent and this isn’t your typical 14-seed. The Eagles have lost just once since mid-January, a span of 14 games. That one loss was by only five points. During this 13-1 stretch, they have averaged over 80 points/game. Leading scorer Tanner Groves shoots the ball very well. Kansas was only 7-7 away from Allen Fieldhouse this year and it’s no guarantee they win this game, let alone by any kind of serious margin. Three of their last four wins were by single digit margins. In its last five games, Eastern Washington gave up an average of 59 points on 38.5% shooting. They’ll keep it close. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 88 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS TECH Texas Tech doesn’t have a very good ATS record, but they’ve suffered many tight losses to Big 12 teams. This is a short number against a team from the Mountain West, a conference that typically does not do well in the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders last two Tournament appearances have yielded runs to the Elite Eight and National Championship Game. The big problem for Utah State in this game is going to be turnovers. In three of their five losses, the Aggies turned it over an average of 17 times per game. Texas Tech is great at forcing TO’s, forcing the 29th most per game in the country at the eighth highest rate. Utah State topped 62 points once in its last four games. That’s not going to be enough to cover the spread Friday. The Aggies are just 1-5 ATS their last six NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Colgate +9 v. Arkansas | Top | 68-85 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLGATE Colgate has played just 15 games this season, but the champions of the Patriot League have quickly become one of the “trendy underdogs” to pull an outright upset in the opening round. We concur with the public viewpoint. While the Raiders did not play a single non-conference game in the regular season, they are on a 13-game win streak since suffering their only loss, which was by two points against Army. They are second in the entire country, averaging 86.3 points/game, which trails only Gonzaga. Every one of their wins has been by at least eight points. Arkansas just had a 12-game conference win streak snapped in the SEC Tournament. While the Razorbacks had a great year and are getting a lot of fanfare themselves, this is a team that hasn’t played a NCAA Tournament game since 2018. It’s going to take a lot of points to cover the spread in this one and we don’t see the Hogs doing it. Colgate shoots the three very well (40%) and that should keep them in the game. Coming off their first loss in over a month, we expect the favorite to struggle in this matchup. Play on COLGATE AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Virginia Tech v. Florida | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FLORIDA (MONEY LINE) Look for Florida to advance out of this 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Gators are making their fourth Tournament appearance under coach Mike White and they are one of only 18 teams in the country to rank top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tre Mann, who averaged 23 points over the team’s last four games, is the go-to scorer. Considering Florida lost three of those four games, Mann needs help. Look for him to get it from big man Colin Castleton. Virginia Tech, in addition to not having much Tournament experience, hasn’t been on the court much over the last month. COVID affected them about as much as any team in the Big Dance as the Hokies have played just three games since Feb 6th. Two of them were losses. They’ve lost three of their last five overall. The advanced metrics have simply not liked this team all year, despite some impressive non-conference wins. They are 1-4 ATS their last five games vs. teams with winning records and 6-13 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Play on FLORIDA | |||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State -1 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WICHITA STATE When Wichita State left the Missouri Valley to join the American Conference in 2017, Drake was probably like “good riddance.” After all, the Bulldogs had lost 11 straight times to the Shockers. Little did they know - four years later - they’d be running into their old MVC rivals in the “First Four” of the NCAA Tournament. Though these were two of the last teams to make it into the field, both had solid arguments for inclusion. Drake started 18-0 and at the time was the only remaining unbeaten besides Gonzaga and Baylor. Wichita State was regular season champ of the conference that included Houston. But we clearly side with the Shockers on Thursday. Drake has been without two of its top three scorers the last month. We know Roman Penn won’t play and leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill may not either. Even if Hemphill does play, it will have been over a month since he last saw the court after suffering a broken foot. The Bulldogs have been an ATS machine this year, but it ends Thursday. The Shockers are 15-3 their last 18 games with one of the losses coming by one point. With the line jumping the fence, that’s even more value. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-14-21 | LSU v. Alabama UNDER 158 | Top | 79-80 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Alabama rallied from 15 down to defeat Tennessee in the semifinals. That was a much more difficult endeavor than the quarterfinals when the Crimson Tide blew past Mississippi State 85-48. Today, it’s a bit of a surprise that they face LSU in the SEC Tournament Final. The Tigers have won a couple close games in this tourney, 76-73 over Ole Miss and 78-71 over Arkansas. In yesterday’s upset, they held the second-seeded Razorbacks to 11 points below their season average and to just 6 of 26 from three-point range. Averaging more than 80 points/game, LSU is one of the top offensive teams in the country, but here they run into a team that happens to be #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Bama really “gave it” to LSU in both regular season games, winning by 30 and 18. In the 30-point rout, they scored 105 points. That won’t happen today. The Under is 5-1 in the Tide’s past six games. The second time these teams played this year, the final score ended up being 78-60 and while it may not wind up as lopsided this time, that’s the number of total points we’re looking for here. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-13-21 | Oklahoma State +2 v. Texas | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma State is just about as anybody in College Basketball right now. The 12th ranked Cowboys come into the Big 12 Championship Game having won eight of their last nine games. They just avenged the one loss by beating top seed Baylor 83-74 Friday. That was their eighth consecutive cover as well. Texas’ path to the Tournament Final has been much easier. The Longhorns didn’t even have to play yesterday as Kansas was knocked out by a positive COVID-19 test. That was after escaping with a one-point win against Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. OSU covered both times they played Texas in the regular season. They lost by three in Austin (but were +7.5 in that game) and then won 75-67 in Stillwater, a game that went to two overtimes. Right now, you’ve got to ride these Cowboys as they seemingly are doing everything right. Not sure how the unexpected bye will affect Texas. They were down by 10 in both halves vs. Texas Tech. OSU has never been in that kind of danger in the tournament. The Longhorns are 3-9-1 ATS L13 as a favorite. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 144.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Over worked quite well for us in Michigan’s win yesterday over Maryland as the Wolverines shot 51.7 percent, including 10 of 22 on three-pointers. They put up 79 points, their most in a game since a February 25th win over Iowa. So we’re going back to Over today as the Wolverines face rival Ohio State in the first Big Ten semifinal. The Buckeyes had to go to OT to get by Purdue yesterday as it was the second day in a row they blew a double digit lead in the second half. They wound up with 87 points, their most in a game since a loss to Michigan last month. That game soared past the number as it was a 92-87 final. We don’t see nearly 40 fewer points being scored this time, especially since the Buckeyes really struggle at the defensive end of the floor. They are 76th in the country in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among top 10 teams. That’s why they struggle to protect leads. Earlier, we brought up the 79 (points) Michigan scored on Iowa last month as the Hawkeyes are another team that struggles defensively. Look for a lot of points Saturday. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Ohio State has been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 132.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So Maryland and Michigan have each gone Under in their last five games. Maryland won Thursday as they erased an early deficit against Michigan State. The score ended up being 68-57, a comfortable win.They are allowing fewer than a 60-point average the past five games. But that streak will obviously be tested here by top seed Michigan. The Wolverines are an elite team at both ends of the floor. Offensively, production did dip the last three games. But you shouldn’t worry about it. These teams played twice in the regular season. Michigan won both. They scored 84 and 87 points. Both games went Over. What’s interesting here is the total is way lower than it was for either regular season matchup. Value? We think so. The Over is 4-0 for both squads their last four games versus teams that have winning records. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times they have played. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-11-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15 | Top | 51-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UC IRVINE UC Irvine is a big favorite to move on to the Big West semis as it caught a lucky break and will face last place Cal Poly today. Cal Poly was an upset winner on Tuesday, 87-82 against CS Fullerton. It was their first win of any kind since January 29th. There were nine straight losses in between. Then you’ve got the fact that the two times the Mustangs faced UC Irvine, they lost by 23 and 19 points. They are 0-6 vs. UC Irvine the last three seasons. UC Irvine has won four straight and six of its last seven coming into the tournament. While Cal Poly got one day off between tournament games, UC Irvine has been off since Saturday. This figures to be quite the lopsided affair. Cal Poly had not won a single game away from home all year before Tuesday and they average just 58.6 points/game on their travels. Look for the favorite to win very big in this one. Play on UC IRVINE AAA | |||||||
03-11-21 | Northern Colorado v. Southern Utah -7 | Top | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Southern Utah comes into the Big Sky Tournament as the top seed, having gone 12-2 SU in the regular season. The Thunderbirds were a little lucky in that they played one fewer game than both Eastern Washington and Weber State, who were each 12-3. But that’s something to possibly “worry about” later as today’s game vs. 8-seed Northern Colorado should be a “breeze.” Northern Colorado had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Sacramento State 90-83 thanks to a career-high 30 points from Bodie Hume, who was 7 of 10 on three-point attempts. The 90 points were also a season-high for the Bears. Southern Utah has not lost a game since January 21st. They have won nine straight games, seven of them by 10 or more points. They only lost three times all season and one of them was the season opener. The other two were on the road to the Big Sky’s other top two teams. This would be a mismatch even without SUU having the bye. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | California v. Stanford -6 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STANFORD California is quite bad. Save for a shocking upset over Colorado on February 13th, they have not won since January 16th. They finished last in the conference after dropping their final four regular season games. In three of those four losses, they were held to 57 points or fewer. Stanford is the Bears’ first round opposition and it’s likely to be a short run in the Pac 12 Tournament (for Cal). The Cardinal won both regular season matchups, 70-55 at home and 76-70 on the road. Those games took place at the start of February. Cal has not played in nearly two weeks. It’s really difficult to see them “showing up” in Vegas with any incentive as they went 3-18 SU in league play. Outside of the four games where they were a home favorite (went 4-0), the Bears were 4-19 SU this season. Stanford is also on a four-game losing streak, but had a better year than Cal and should have a longer run in Vegas this week. Maybe they don’t make it far, but the Cardinal should easily make it to tomorrow with a win and cover here. Play on STANFORD AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | Marquette v. Georgetown +3 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGETOWN The Big East Tournament gets underway Wednesday and here we have the 9-seed Marquette taking on the 8-seed Georgetown in the very first matchup. The lower seed is actually favored, which is not all that strange (it is an 8-9 matchup), but we disagree with it. Marquette has won four of its last five, but so had G’town before losing at UConn Saturday. That blowout loss seems to have had a direct influence on this line. Now Marquette was a 4.5 point favorite when these teams played (at Georgetown) in the lone regular season battle. But those who watched that game will recall that the Hoyas led by 16 at half. They came back to win by four, but G’town remembers and is out for revenge. The Golden Eagles failed to cover 14 of their first 20 games this season, before a relatively strong finish. They are 3-8 ATS off a straight up win. Georgetown is 4-0 ATS off its last four ATS defeats. Play on GEORGETOWN AAA | |||||||
03-09-21 | Long Beach State +2 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 85-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU The Big West Tournament gets going today and while neither Long Beach State nor Cal State Northridge is expected to do much this week, we see a nice edge with the underdog in this Opening Round matchup. While it’s true that LBSU’s regular season ended with a four-game losing skid, three of those defeats were by two or three points. Had any of those games gone the other way, the Beach would be a higher seed. Now you can say the same for CS Northridge, who lost two close ones to UC Riverside last weekend. But what’s unusual here is CS Northridge is the favorite, something that has happened only two times this year. The line is clearly very small, but this isn’t a team I’d want to bet on to actually win a game. Long Beach State has an incredible six losses by three points or less on its resume, so they are probably better than their record. Neither of these teams is very good defensively, but LBSU has held its opponents to a much lower field goal percentage. They are 7-2 ATS off an ATS loss as well. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA | |||||||
03-09-21 | Pepperdine v. BYU -8.5 | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BYU Back on January 27th, BYU lost to Pepperdine. We don’t see them losing this time though. It should be more along the lines of their first meeting, which was four days before the second. BYU won that game by 11. The stakes are now higher as this is the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. A win here should solidify the Cougars as a NCAA Tournament team. They got the triple bye into the semis by virtue of fishing second and only behind Gonzaga in the regular season standings. Pepperdine finished third and so they had to beat Santa Clara on Saturday. That was a 78-70 win for the Waves as four-point favorites. They do a great job at defending the three-point line, but Pepperdine is pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. BYU has won four in a row by holding its opponents to a 39.2 FG%. Something to make note of is that Santa Clara was playing its third game in as many days when Pepperdine beat them. BYU is well rested coming into tonight and remembers the loss from two months ago. Their only other WCC losses (besides the one to Pepperdine) both were against Gonzaga. The majority of the wins came by double digits. Play on BYU AAA | |||||||
03-07-21 | Oregon -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON There is no doubt that Oregon State has been a proverbial “thorn in the side” to the rest of the Pac 12. The Beavers are 13-1-1 ATS their last 15 games and 7-0 ATS the last 7. (They are 9-6 SU and 3-0 L3 during the same run). This run includes an upset of Oregon, in Eugene, back on January 23rd. But that 75-64 win as nine-point underdogs comes with an asterisk as the Ducks were not even close to full strength. They were down four starters because of COVID-19 and it was actually the only game they got in during all of January. Since getting back to full strength, Oregon has gotten on a roll. They’ve won 9 of 10, the only loss coming at USC. Wednesday’s 82-74 win over UCLA saw them shoot over 60% from the field and move into first place in the Pac 12. They can now clinch the 1-seed for the Pac 12 Tournament if they win tonight. Given the stakes and the revenge angle, the Ducks are a big play for us here. They are 10-1 ATS their L11 Sunday games. Play on OREGON AAA | |||||||
03-07-21 | North Alabama v. Liberty -13.5 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY This is the Tournament Final in the Atlantic Sun. Liberty has clearly been the best team in the conference all season. This entire tourney has taken place in Jacksonville. Liberty won its first two games by 10 (against Kennesaw State) and 13 (against Stetson). Those were the two lowest seeds in the tournament. North Alabama, the 5 seed, has pulled two upsets to get here, beating North Florida 68-68 (were +3) and Fla Gulf Coast 96-81 (were +2.5). The teams had Saturday off. There was a point late in the season that North Alabama had dropped seven in a row. Then they won the regular season finale against Lipscomb. Three straight upsets and playing with “house money” make them an interesting dog here, but the reality is they’ve got no shot Sunday. Liberty crushed them twice in the regular season, winning by identical 74-54 scores each time. The Flames have not lost since January 15th. I’m aware that Liberty has already punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament as North Alabama is ineligible (transitioning to D-II). But they will want to head into the Big Dance off a convincing victory. Play on LIBERTY AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Virginia -2 v. Louisville | Top | 68-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VIRGINIA Virginia got a win earlier this week, thus snapping a rare three-game losing streak. But that win Monday wasn't enough to satisfy the oddsmakers. The Cavaliers.only won by 11 at Miami and they were 15.5-point favorites. So that makes it four straight games where they have not covered. It’s always tough going to Louisville, but we feel the Cavaliers are definitely the better team here and will gladly lay a short number with them. Louisville has not played since last Saturday when it upset Duke. Even with that win, the Cardinals are just 4-4 their last eight games. They played only four games in February and Wednesday’s game vs. Va Tech was called off due to COVID. Virginia has had the Cardinals number, winning 11 of 13 against them under Tony Bennett. Louisville has a double bye (in the ACC Tournament) at stake here, which is why the line is so short. They are being overvalued due to circumstance as we don’t think Virginia takes it easy on them Saturday. Louisville is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They are also 1-8-1 ATS L10 following an ATS win. Play on VIRGINIA AAAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 122.5 | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is now down to its semifinals and this event was not without headlines as yesterday Drake got to advance without even playing (its quarter final opponent N Iowa had a positive COVID test). In today’s first semi, top seeded Loyola (ranked #20) will face Indiana State. The Ramblers had no problems in yesterday’s 73-49 beatdown over Southern Illinois. That made it 16 straight games where Loyola has held its opposition below 60 points. The last time they failed to do so was all the way back on January 10th and ironically that was against the team they’ll face here in the semis, Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 76-71, the first of two times the teams played. (Loyola did win the second 58-48.) The Ramblers average more than 70 points/game, so they can take care of the majority of the scoring today. We do see Indiana State getting to 60, which is probably the key here to the game going Over. This total is REALLY low as ISU’s game vs. Evansville featured fewer than 100 total points. But it’s a new day and the Sycamores are 10-4 Over following a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 points. Loyola has gone Over in five straight neutral site games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Florida State -7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Florida State appears to be the class of the ACC this season and can wrap up its second consecutive regular season crown with a win over Notre Dame on Saturday. This should prove not that difficult as the Fighting Irish have lost four games in a row. While three of those were on the road, the last one occurred right here in South Bend and it was by double digits to North Carolina State. Also concerning is that it was the fourth time in the last six games where the Irish gave up at least 80 points. FSU is one of the best offensive teams in the country, not just the best in the ACC. The Seminoles are averaging basically 80 points/game and they just hung 93 on Boston College in a blowout win Wednesday. That’s the same BC team that put up 94 on ND in a recent upset win. While three of the ‘Noles four losses have come on the road, those were all to GOOD teams. Even with senior M.J. Walker listed as questionable, they should be fine considering eight other players are averaging at least 14 minutes per game for one of the deepest teams in all of College Basketball. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-05-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock +2 v. Appalachian State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LITTLE ROCK Despite struggling mightily down the stretch, we think Little Rock is the better team here in this first round Sun Belt Tournament matchup. It’s not as if Appalachian State is playing any better. While Little Rock may be just 1-7 SU its last eight games, App State is 1-6 SU in their last seven. The difference is Little Rock is coming off a win, 69-59 against Louisiana, last Saturday. It was not a good year at the betting window for the Trojans (6-16 ATS), a clear sign of underachieving. Turning the basketball over too much has been a problem. But the team’s defensive numbers have steadily improved throughout conference play and they’ve got a big advantage in that regard in this particular matchup. Appalachian State allows its opponents an effective FG% of 52.3 and to shoot 52.6% on two-point attempts. Both are the highest marks in the Sun Belt. We find it very interesting that the Mountaineers have been bet to favoritism tonight as they’ve lost the game outright the last four times they’ve been chalk. There were no regular season meetings this year, but Little Rock did sweep a season ago. Play on LITTLE ROCK AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |