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ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Even if Donovan Mitchell can’t go Monday we still like the Cavs minus the points. The Spurs are coming off a big road upset win in Miami and now return home where they haven’t had much success this season. San Antonio is 4-10 SU at home with the worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -9.6PPG. Prior to a recent home win over the Rockets, the Spurs had lost five straight at home, all by 5 or more points. The Cavs haven’t been great on the road this season but they are stepping way down in class against the Spurs here. Cleveland is 12th in offensive efficiency this season, the Spurs rank 29th. Defensively things get much worse for San Antonio as the Cavs hold the #1 rating in defensive efficiency while the Spurs are last. There is enough of a supporting cast in Cleveland with Allen, Mobley, LeVert and Garland to make up for the loss of Mitchell here. The Cavs 4-0 ATS streak in San Antonio continues tonight.

ASA play on 8* Portland Trailblazers -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Blazers and fade the Wolves. Minnesota is coming off a big game in Utah last night (the return of Rudy Gobert) and will have a tough time getting back up for this game. Portland is off a tough 1-point loss to the Nuggets on Dec 8th. The Blazers got Damian Lillard back in that game and he promptly went off for 40-points. He’s in line for another big game here against a Wolves team that doesn’t defend guards well. The Wolves have a tighter rotation now that Karl Anthony Towns is out which makes this scheduling situation that much tougher. Going back to the start of last season, the T-Wolves are 6-9-1 ATS with a negative differential of -2.9PPG when playing without rest. The big advantage the Blazers have here is 3-point shooting. Portland has the 3rd best 3PT% in the NBA and the Wolves are the 29th worst 3PT% defense. Portland has dominated this series as the home team with a 22-7-2 ATS record the last 31 times the Wolves have come to town.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -8 over Eastern Washington, Saturday at 5 PM ET - SDSU steps into this one with a 3-7 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country to date. Their strength of schedule ranks in the top 20 nationally and of their 10 games thus far, 9 have been on the road or neutral sites. They are coming off 4 straight losses, all away from home vs top notch competition (James Madison, Kent, Arkansas, and Montana). This now becomes a huge game for them and their opponent, Eastern Washington (ranked 231st), will be the 2nd lowest rated opponent SDSU has faced this season. This game is at home for the Jackrabbits and a big step down in competition after already facing 5 top 100 opponents. SDSU is much better than their record as they return 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that finished with a 30-5 record and made it to the NCAA tourney. EWU also has a losing record at 4-5, yet they’ve played a much easier schedule (220th ranked SOS) and their 4 wins have come against teams ranked 362nd, 339th, 259th, and 241st. Three of those wins were by 8 points or less despite the easy competition. All 5 of their losses have come by double digits and only one of those came vs a team in the top 85. The Eagles are 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Cal by 2 points on Wednesday of this week. Their other road games were losses by 11, 12, and 20 points. That win a few days ago vs Cal may seem like a big one but the Bears are now 0-10 this year with 3 of those losses coming vs teams ranked outside the top 200. After that road win in California, they are now in South Dakota just a few days later which is not an ideal situation. The Eagles are not great on either end of the court ranking outside the top 200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are stepping into a hornet’s nest here with a very solid team in must win mode at home where they’ve won 45 of their last 47 games. We’ll lay the points.

ASA play on 8* Cleveland Cavaliers -4 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We like this young Kings team and don’t feel their 13-9 start is a fluke, but we have to bet against them here. The Kings average 119.3PPG compared to the Cavs 111.5PPG but their offensive efficiency rating is very close at 1.165PPP for the Kings and 1.141PPP for Cleveland. Defensively there is no comparison as the Cavaliers have the #1 rated defensive efficiency numbers in the league allowing just 1.079PPP versus the Kings who rank 21st giving up 1.132PPP. Cleveland has also been near unbeatable at home this season with a 11-1 SU record and the best average point differential of +12.4PPG. The Kings are a respectable 5-6 SU away from home but recently versus teams of the Cavs caliber (Bucks, Celtics even Hawks) they have lost by 9+ points in each of those road games. Cleveland has the 4th best field goal percentage in the NBA and the Kings rank 26th defensively in that department. Sacramento is also 27th in defending the 3-point line and the Cavs shoot 34.5% which ranks 10th.

#306686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UMass -2 over UMass Lowell, Thursday at 7 PM ET - UMass Lowell has an impressive 9-1 record but they’ve played nobody. Actually we take the back, the one good team they’ve played this season, Rutgers, beat them by 8 points. Their strength of schedule ranks 356th nationally (out of 363) and 8 of their 10 games this season have come vs teams ranked outside the top 300 or non Division 1 opponents. UMass Lowell’s best win on the season came in a 73-62 win over Brown, the 233rd ranked team in the country. The River Hawks overall offensive numbers are solid but let’s take into account they’ve faced 10 teams this year and 7 of those teams are ranked outside the top 300 in adjusted defensive efficiency or they are non division 1 opponents. The best defense they faced this season, Rutgers, held them to 18 points below their season scoring average and allowed them to make only 42% of their shots and 22% of their 3-pointers. UMass has the 2nd best defense this team will face this season behind Rutgers. The Minutemen have faced the much more difficult schedule and have a similar record at 7-1. Because of UMass Lowell’s hot start, vs poor competition, we’re getting some value here with UMass. The Minutemen faced UMass Lowell last year here and were favored by -9.5 and won by 11. Now we’re getting them at -2 at home vs a program they’ve never lost to. UMass is 5-0 vs UMass Lowell winning by an average of 10 PPG. We’ll take the Minutemen at home on Thursday night.

#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4 over Vanderbilt, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some really solid value here with a Pitt team that is better than most think. They have just won back to back road games vs teams that are both better than this Vandy squad. Since losing 3 in a row back in mid November vs 3 very good opponents (WVU, Michigan, and VCU), the Panthers have won 5 straight including wins @ Northwestern (by 29 points) and @ NC State (by 8 points). They’ve covered their last 4 games by a combined 65 points or an average of 16.2 points per game. Vandy has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and of their 4 wins on the season, 3 came by 8 points or less with 2 coming by 3 points. The Commodores are just 2-2 at home this year including a 12 point loss to Southern Miss who ranks 180th currently. Not a huge home court advantage for Vandy as their record at Memorial Coliseum since the start of the 2020 season is just 17-17. Vandy’s PPG differential on the season is +1 PPG and they’ve faced 4 top 100 teams this year with a record of 1-3 in those games. Their only top 100 win was by 2 points in OT vs Temple. In what we expect to be a tight game, the FT line will be key. Vanderbilt rarely gets to the line and when they do they only make 61% of their FT’s (332nd). Pitt scores nearly 20% of their points from the FT line (115th nationally) and they make 74% as a team. We have this number set at Vandy -1 per our power ratings so we’ll take Pitt +4 here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers are exhausted at this point of the season as they are playing their 7th straight road game and are off a satisfying win over the World Champs Warriors. Minnesota is off a different result as they lost at home to the Thunder on Dec 3rd. They were off a huge game against the Grizzlies who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Now with 3 days rest and off that loss they’ll rebound with a big effort here. Indiana has a negative differential on the road of minus -4.7PPG and are 2-4 SU on this current trip. Minnesota has a losing home record this season which is a big reason why this line is as low as it is. The Wolves do have a winning record since the start of last season when coming off a loss. They also have a 19-19-2 ATS record at home as a favorite but their average Margin of Victory is +6.9PPG which gets us a cover here.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Mavericks here as they are coming off a huge game on Monday night at home against the Suns. Denver meanwhile was off yesterday and is coming off a back-to-back losses on the road in New Orleans and Atlanta. These two teams met in late November in Dallas and split with each team winning a game. The Nuggets played without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic or 50.1-points per game, 13.8 rebounds per game and 13.8- assists per game and still split with the Mavs. Dallas is just 2-8 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG. Denver is 6-2 SU at home with the 5th best average Margin of Victory of +11PPG. Dallas is 6-9-1 ATS their last sixteen games when playing without rest and the home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points with Denver here.

#607 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois +4.5 over Texas, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This one is being played on a neutral court – MSG in New York City. It’s the first time the Longhorns have left the state of Texas this season. They’ve played all home games + 1 sort of neutral site game in Edinburgh, TX vs a bad Northern Arizona team. Speaking of bad, the Texas strength of schedule is just that ranking outside the top 300. The only 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced are Gonzaga and Creighton, both in their home arena. We were on the Blue Jays +6.5 in that game and they hung tough getting us a cover losing by 5 despite making just 4 of their 27 three point attempts (15%). We really like this Illinois team and feel they will contend for a Big 10 title. They’ve played the much tougher schedule thus far including 1 true road game vs Maryland and a few neutral site games in Las Vegas vs Virginia & UCLA. The Illini have already faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 per our power ratings. They’ve beaten a very good UCLA team on the road and crushed Syracuse at home. Their 2 losses came at the hands of Virginia and @ Maryland 71-66 on Friday night. Those 2 teams are a combined 15-0 so far on the season. They match up well with Texas here who can’t shoot outside the arc (314th in 3 point percentage) and likes to score inside. Illinois has allowed opponents to shoot only 41% from inside the arc which is 11th best in the country. The Illini are the much bigger team as well and should control the boards vs a Texas team that has already been outrebounded in half of their games this season despite their weak schedule. Two very good defensive teams going head to head in MSG and we’re taking the points with Illinois in a game we expect to go to the wire.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +4.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Blazers in this matchup as the Jazz are coming off a game last night, plus playing their 6th game in a nine day span. The Jazz are coming off a 20-point win over the Pacers last night but are just 3-3 SU their last six at home. The Blazers last played on Nov 30th, a loss to the Lakers who are clearly playing much better right now. Portland is 7-6 SU on the road this season with a +/- of minus -3.6PPG. Utah is 8-3 SU at home this season, but again they are in a very tough scheduling situation here. Dating back to the start of last season, the Jazz are just 9-9-1 ATS when playing without rest with a +/- of +2.9PPG. Utah is not a trustworthy favorite with a 35-50-2 ATS record since the start of the 2021 season, 3-6 ATS this season with a +/- of +2.8PPG. Portland as a dog is 11-5 ATS with a +/- of -3.4PPG. Grab whatever points are available and don’t be shocked if the Blazers win outright.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Bulls just played at Phoenix and were plus +5.5-points. Earlier in the same road trip they were plus +7.5-points at Milwaukee. Those two teams are in the top 3 or four teams in the NBA along with Boston. Tonight, Chicago is catching 7-points at the 11-11 Warriors. Granted, the Warriors have been very good at home this season with a 9-1 record and a +11PPG differential, but those numbers are padded with big wins over bad teams. Chicago has the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season with a +/- of -2.9PPG. Overall, the Bulls have the 12th best defensive efficiency rating in the league while the Warriors rank 21st and give up 1.137PPP. Off a humiliating loss in Phoenix we like the Bulls to rebound here and keep this game within the spread.

#751 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton +7 over Texas, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Texas is 5-0 SU this season but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 180 and 3 of their 5 wins have come vs teams ranked 260th or lower. Their strength of schedule is currently 342nd after 5 games. Their lone top 100 win was here vs Gonzaga in the grand opening of their new arena and they were favored by 2 in that game. Now they are laying 4.5 to 5 points more vs a Creighton team that is every bit as good as Gonzaga this season. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in the season and they’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 3 straight top 30 opponents beating Texas Tech & Arkansas and losing by 2 points to Arizona. They return most of their key players from team that was 23-12 last year and nearly upended eventual National Champion Kansas in the 2nd round of the NCAA despite missing 2 starters (Nembhard and Kalkenbrenner who are both back). They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging at least 12 PPG and they rank in the top 12 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 2 point FG%. The Jays are very good in the backcourt which is key here as Texas thrives on creating turnovers (4th nationally) to help create offense yet Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over very much (17th nationally). Creighton should be able to keep Texas off the offensive boards (9th nationally in defensive rebounding) and off the FT line where their opponents have scored just 8% of their total points. This is absolutely a game the Jays can win and we’re getting significant points. They are very well coached and have had a full week off since losing by a bucket to an undefeated Arizona team. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4.5 vs. Indiana Pacers, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings opened the season 0-4 with three of those L’s coming at home and it looked like we were going to see another year of the same ole Kings. They’ve rebounded nicely from that slow start to win 10 of their last fifteen games. Included in that streak is a 7-1 SU home record with some impressive wins over the Heat, Cavs, Warriors and Nets. The lone loss in that stretch was at home last time out against the Suns 117-122. Sacramento has the 11th best average point differential at home this season of +4.9PPG. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency at home behind the Celtics. Indiana is off a big road win over the Lakers and will likely let down here. The Pacers have a negative differential on the road of minus -1.1PPG which is 20th in the NBA. They have a 5-4 SU road record but only one of those victories came against a team with a current winning record and that is the 11-10 Wizards. I’m buying the Kings here and will lay the points.

ASA play on 8* NY Knicks +6 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This line is inflated as the Knicks are coming off a game last night while the Bucks are rested. But the Knicks won big last night in Detroit and were able to spread their minutes throughout the bench. The value in this number is obvious as the Bucks were favored by -6-points at home earlier this season, which means this should be a small dog or even a pick’em. New York was just a +2-point home dog to Memphis the other night. The Bucks have been dominating at home with a 11-2 SU record but on the road they sport a 3-3 record. They are just 1-3 SU their last four away from home which includes a loss to the lowly Spurs. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS when playing without rest since the start of last season and they’ve won those games by an average of +2.8PPG and covered the number by +5.7PPG. Grab the value with New York tonight.

#668 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Bonaventure -2.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for MTSU. They have been in Montreal Canada since last Thursday. They played games in Montreal on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now just 72 hours after finishing their last game in Canada, they have to play St Bonnies in Western NY. MTSU won all 3 games in Canada so we’re getting some value here with the number because of that. They beat Hofstra, Stephen F Austin, and Montana State with the last game going to the wire winning 72-71 vs a Bobcat team that now has a 3-5 record. The Blue Raiders have played 2 true road games this year losing both by 8 @ Winthrop and by 24 @ Missouri State, both rated lower than this St Bonaventure team. The Bonnies have some great momentum coming into this game after beating Notre Dame on a neutral court last Friday 63-51. So they’ve had 5 full days to get ready for this one which is a much better situation when compared to Middle Tennessee State. STB have a great home court advantage with a 3-0 record this season and 16-2 since the beginning of last season. Their 2 losses this season both came on the road by 4 in OT and by 4 in regulation. This team has surprised early and they are very close to being undefeated. Mark Schmidt is a terrific head coach who has been at St Bonnies since 2008 and has had winning seasons in 12 of the last 13 years. He’ll have his team well prepared and playing great defense as they rank 50th in eFG% defense and 26th in 3 point FG% defense. We expect a tired MTSU team that is simply ready to get home (they stayed in Montreal after their game on Sunday) and the STB defense will wear them down. Lay the small number.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 vs. LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Blazers have a better “depleted” lineup than the Clipper injury riddled lineup. Portland it without Damian Lillard but the Clippers don’t have Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. Also, out for the Clippers is Luke Kennard and John Wall. Portland is off a tough 4-game road trip which ended with a very poor showing against the Nets. The Clippers are off a win over the Pacers, but it took a monster effort from their Center Zubac who scored 31-points and grabbed 29-rebounds. That was understandable considering the Pacers are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to points allowed to Centers. L.A. has just 1 win on the road versus a team with a winning record and that was the 2nd game of the season against the Kings. Portland is 4-4 SU at home this season, but all 4 losses have come against teams that made the Playoffs a year ago. Portland off a double-digit loss is on a 4-0 ATS streak and we are betting they get a big win tonight.

#632 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -15.5 over Georgia Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot at home for Iowa after coming off a loss as a 6.5 point favorite vs TCU on Saturday. That game was on a neutral site in Florida. The Hawkeyes shot poorly vs a very good defensive team (TCU) hitting just 43% overall and 18% from beyond the arc, both well below their season averages. We expect those numbers to skyrocket at home tonight where they always shoot well. This season they are 3-0 at home, averaging 100 PPG and hitting 53% of their FG’s. We don’t expect triple digits here but the Hawks have been tough to beat at home winning 22 of their last 25 games and they’ve averaged 89 PPG in those 22 home wins. We just don’t think Georgia Tech can keep up here. They are not a good shooting team ranking 322nd in eFG% and they sit outside the top 285 in both 3 point and 2 point FG%. The Jackets are coming off a win vs a terrible North Alabama team (ranked 328th) that plays zero defense. Tech scored 80 in that game, however prior to that they had averaged just 62 PPG their previous 4 contests. They’ve played one top 60 team this year (Marquette rated 59th) and lost by 24 points on a neutral site. We have Iowa power rated in the top 25 so this will be the best team GT has played this season. The Hawks were just favored by 6.5 and 9 vs TCU & Clemson on a neutral site – both top 65 teams. That means at home they would’ve been favored by 10ish and 13ish vs 2 teams that are much better than Georgia Tech who most are projecting to finish last in the ACC. Despite laying 14, the value is on the home team here. Iowa should be able to put up big points at home as they usually do and unless the Yellow Jackets perform well above expectations, they just won’t score enough to cover this one.

#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +5.5 over Washington, Monday at 10 PM ET - Huge game for a really solid Seattle team here getting to play their in-state big brother. These 2 met last season and Washington won by just 8 despite attempting 22 FT’s to Seattle’s 5. Despite that loss, the Redhawks went on to win the WAC title last season and finish with a 23-9 overall record. They return 7 of their top 9 players this season and they’ve started with 5 straight wins. That includes a 12 point win over a very good Portland team who took Michigan State and North Carolina to the wire (lost by 1 & 8) and beat Villanova. They catch the Huskies in a rough spot. Washington just upset St Mary’s in OT in their most recent game but were a bit fortunate as they trailed by 5 with just over 1 minute remaining. The Huskies also start Pac 12 play on Thursday of this week so they very well might be a bit flat here. If they are, they won’t win this game much less cover the 5 points. While Seattle brings back nearly everyone from last year’s team, Washington returns only 1 player that started in last year’s game vs Seattle and only 2 players that played 10 minutes or more. UW already has a 9 point home loss at the hands of Cal Baptist and Seattle will be the 2nd highest rated team they’ve faced this season behind St Mary’s. The Huskies last 4 wins have come by 8, 9, 5, and 4 points and 2 of those teams are currently ranked outside the top 200. Seattle is a very dangerous dog here as they are a very good shooting team (15th nationally in eFG%) and they can score from deep hitting almost 42% of their 3’s on the year (11th nationally). We look for this to be close throughout and we’ll grab the points with Seattle.

#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* West Virginia +1.5 over Florida, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET - The better team is getting points on a neutral site here. We have WVU rated as 2 points better than Florida right now on a neutral court so we’ll take the value with the Mountaineers. Florida is still working on a new system on both sides of the ball with head coach Golden who came over from San Francisco in the off-season. The Gators are also working in 4 key transfers currently in their top 6 in the rotation. They’ve played 2 top 100 teams this season and lost to both, Xavier and Florida Atlantic. The Gators best win this season is vs a depleted Florida State team that currently has a record of 1-6. WVU is 5-1 on the year with 5 double digit wins and their only loss coming vs Purdue who is playing as well as any team in the country right now (just beat Gonzaga by 18). Head coach Bob Huggins has a deep team this season and he has consistently played 9 or 10 guys which will come in handy playing their 3rd game in 4 days (Florida has also played 3 games in 4 days). They have shot the ball very well this season (25th nationally in eFG%) and their defensive pressure has been tough for teams to handle with WVU ranking 9th nationally in creating turnovers. Florida has decent numbers offensively in regards to turnovers, however they haven’t faced a team ranked in the top 160 in defensive turnover rate. Both these teams played on Friday and we feel the coaching advantage in this situation is with Bob Huggins with short prep time over Golden who is only in his 4th season as a college head coach. Our metrics have WVU better offensively and defensively and they should get some extra possessions due to their defensive pressure. Take the points with West Virginia

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - We are not as high on the Mavericks and most prognosticators and like this spot to fade them. Dallas is off a game last night in Toronto, a 5-point loss as a -2.5 point favorite. The game before that they lost at Boston +5.5 points. In the game against the Celtics the Mavs trailed big for most of the game before making it respectable late. Last night Luka Doncic played 42 minutes so don’t be surprised if they manage his workload here. Dallas is 1-6 SU away from home with a negative differential of -4.7PPG. Milwaukee is 10-2 SU at home with a +/- of +9PPG. The Mavs 26th ranked scoring offense at 108.7PPG will have a tough time putting up points against a Bucks team that allows the 4th fewest points per game at 107.2PPG.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Rockets +2 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - Scheduling is the main factor for this wager as the Thunder are in a tough spot here. OKC is playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and two straight overtime games. This is also their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. Meanwhile Houston is also off a game last night but had 4 days off prior to last night. The Rockets beat Atlanta yesterday and have been competitive in recent games against Golden State, Indianapolis and have a win over Dallas. Houston has a huge edge on the glass as the 9th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA and 3rd best offensive rebounding. In comparison the Thunder rank 11th in O-rebounding but 30th in defensive rebounding. Houston won 3 of four meetings last year and will continue that trend tonight.

ASA NBA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - Dating back to the start of last season these are two of the three best teams in the NBA when coming off a loss with Dallas going 31-13 SU, Boston 29-14 SU. Boston though is 15-6 ATS their last 21 when coming off a loss and considering how poorly they played against the Bulls last time out they should be highly focused here. The Celtics are coming off Monday's 121-107 loss to the Chicago Bulls which snapped a nine-game winning streak. In those 9 wins the Celtics average Margin of Victory was +11.4PPG. The Bulls loss was frustrating considering the Celtics committed 15 turnovers and shot just 43.7% as a team. Dallas is coming off a loss to Denver and a 5-game home stretch which saw them go 2-3 SU. The Mavericks are just 1-4 SU away from home and have played a soft schedule to date. When the Mavs have faced an above .500 team they are just 2-7 ATS. Dallas has some misleading defensive numbers as they allow just 105.3PPG on the season (1st) but teams shoot 47.1% from the field versus them, 35.8% from deep (15th). The biggest reason the Mavs don’t allow a ton of points is the slow pace they play at (slowest in the NBA). Boston is the 2nd most efficient offense in the league at 1.190-points per possession and the 5th best overall shooting percentage (48.4%) and 3rd best 3PT%. Boston also owns a +/- at home of +8.7PPG.

#667 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Liberty +4.5 over Northwestern, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - The Flames are coming off an upset loss at home vs Southern Miss on Friday and we like them to bounce back in this neutral site game (Rivera Maya, Mexico) vs Northwestern. It was a game where Liberty came out flat and got way behind before coming back and having a chance late but losing by 4. It was a disappointing performance for a veteran team that may have been peeking ahead to their trip to Mexico. Liberty returns 7 of their top 8 players from last year’s team that won the Atlantic Sun and finished with a record of 22-11. That includes 2-time conference player of the year guard Darrius McGhee (25 PPG) who spurned Power 5 transfer offers to finish out his career with Liberty. Head coach Ritchie McCay has built a very good program @ Liberty after coming over from New Mexico back in 2008. He has led the Flames to 6 consecutive 20 win seasons. In their Hawaii tourney last year, Liberty with basically this same team, beat a very good Northern Iowa team who won the Missouri Valley, lost by 3 vs Stanford (blew a 13 point lead), and lost by 5 vs BYU who finished with a 24-11 record. This team is experience and battle tested. Northwestern steps into this game with a 4-0 record but we think they are overvalued at this point. We have them tabbed for 12th in the Big 10 this year after finishing 7-13 in league play last year. In their most recent game they held off IPFW at home winning by 8 after leading by just 1 points with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Liberty is a solid shooting team that finished in the top 35 nationally from both inside and outside the arc last year while also making 77% of their FT’s. They’ve gotten off to a little slower start this year but still shooting well ranking 80th in eFG%. We think they’ll give NW big problems in this game and we actually have this game rated dead even. Value on Liberty Tuesday evening.

#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 6 PM ET - The Utes are coming off a home loss in a game they were favored so we look for a strong bounce back effort here in Fort Myers. That loss vs Sam Houston State isn’t looking as bad as many may think as SHSU is not a perfect 4-0 on the season and they also have a win @ Oklahoma. Utah returns all 5 starters from last season and they added a few transfers including F Ben Carlson from Wisconsin who will help up front. Georgia Tech is coming off a 12-20 season and while they are 3-0 this year, they haven’t played a team ranked higher than 224th. In that game vs 224th ranked Georgia State, who lost all 5 starters and is projected near the bottom of the Sun Belt, the Yellow Jackets squeaked out a 2 point win. Tech loses their top 2 players from last season, DeVoe and Usher who combined to average over 33 PPG, and they are left with very little experience. In their 3 games thus far the Jackets have shot the ball poorly with an eFG% 42.7% (324th nationally) and those numbers come vs lower level competition. Now they face a Utah defense, that has plenty of size inside and had held their opponents this season to an eFG% of 38.2% which is good for 8th best in the country. The Utes also have a nice size advantage and should control the glass vs a Tech team that has allowed their first 3 opponents to gather nearly 36% of their offensive boards which ranks the Jackets 314th in defensive rebounding. And those numbers came vs teams that are nowhere near the size of Utah. Most projections have Georgia Tech finishing dead last in the ACC after finishing 2nd to last a year ago. We like Utah here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 vs Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - This is a great situation to fade the Jazz and support the Blazers. Utah is off a hard fought 134-133 win over the Western Conference favorites the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz got a huge game from their Center Markkanen who scored 38 points. I doubt he can duplicate those numbers tonight considering the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league against Centers. Utah is just 7-9-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. Portland had last night off but lost Thursday night at home to the Nets 107-109. A poor shooting night of 39% was the main reason for their loss to the Nets but we expect them to revert back to their season average of 46.6% here, especially against a Jazz defense that allows 47.3%. The surprise Blazers have gotten off to a 10-5 start and a big reason why has been their defense which is 6th best in the NBA in efficiency ratings. Portland is 5-0 SU off a loss this season, 4-1 ATS.

#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -2 over Providence, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Miami returns 5 of their top 8 players from a team that made it to the Elite 8 last season. On the other side, Providence must replace all 5 starters from last season and the Friars have played 2 teams ranked outside the top 250 and the one team they played ranked inside the top 200 (Rider at 194th) they struggled with winning by 1 point at home. Miami has also played a weak schedule but they’ve won all of their games by double digits. Despite their weak schedule, the Friars have allowed their opponents to shoot over 47% from 3 point land which will be an issue facing a Miami team that scored over 38% of their points from deep (56th nationally) and the Canes shoot it well from beyond the arc (36%). Providence is 3-0 because they’ve shot a whopping 53 more free throws than their first 3 opponents, however, Miami has been very good at not sending teams to the FT line (69th nationally) so we don’t expect a big advantage at the stripe for the Friars which they are used to. Miami is the better team here and laying under 3 on a neutral gives us value with the Canes. Lay the small number.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Pelicans +3 vs. Boston Celtics, Friday at 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics may be short-handed tonight with Brogdon and Smart both sidelined, but even if they do play, we like the Pelicans at home. Boston is coming off a big win in Atlanta and now stands 6-2 SU away. The Celtics show 55% from the field and 46% from deep. Boston has at +/- of +5.7PPG on the road but their resume isn’t as impressive as you might think. Three of the Celtics road wins are over Detroit, New York and Orlando. New Orleans has an average Margin of Victory at home of +5.2PPG with impressive recent wins over the Bulls by 14 and Memphis by 11. Boston relies heavily on their 3-points shooting but they don’t have that advantage in this game as the Pelicans rank 5th in 3PT%, a few spots behind Boston. An equalizer here is the Pelicans 3-point defense which is 2nd in the NBA, holding opponents to 32.5%. New Orleans should get plenty of second chance opportunities in this game with the 7th best offensive & defensive rebounding team in the NBA going up against the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive rebounding and 21st in O-boards. There is a chance Zion Williamson is back in the lineup for this game, but even if he isn’t we like the home team Pelicans.

ASA top play on 10* SAN ANTONIO SPURS +7.5 at Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - This is more of a play against the Kings than necessarily a play on the Spurs. Sacramento has covered four straight games and is coming off a 153 outburst against the Nets. Those recent results have forced the oddsmakers hand which has this line inflated with the value on the Spurs. The Kings have not been a favorite of this size all season long with their largest spread as a chalk being -4.5. The Spurs were just +8.5-points at Portland who is 10-4 on the season and leading the Western Conference. San Antonio has some quality games against some of the elite teams in the NBA with a 7-point loss at Portland, a win at Milwaukee, a 2-point OT loss versus Memphis and a 6-point loss vs. Denver. The Spurs have covered 19 of their last 26 games overall and are on a 4-0 ATS run when coming off a loss. Sacramento is 14-14-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of the 2021 season with a +/- of +2.2PPG. The Spurs defense is bad this season but the Kings aren’t much better. We like the points here with San Antonio.

#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2 over Davidson, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - This game is part of the Charleston Classic Tournament which is being played on C of C’s home court so this is a home game for them. We were on the Cougars a few nights ago laying 2.5 points at home vs Richmond but lost by a half point when they won by 2 in OT. Now we’re laying less here (currently -1) vs a Davidson team we have power rated lower than Richmond. Ken Pom agrees with us as he has Davidson rated nearly 30 spots lower than Richmond. We like the value on this still underrated Charleston team. In their win vs Richmond earlier this week, the Cougars actually led by double digits for much of the way including a 21 point lead with 14 minutes remaining in the game. It was a game they should have won easily and they’ll learn from blowing that lead and keep their foot on the gas here. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). That will be an issue for depth shy teams and Davidson is one of those as they basically have a 7 man rotation. Another glaring weakness for Davidson is rebounding as they’ve been out boarded in all 3 of their games this season vs VMI, Wright State, AND tiny Guilford College. C of C is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation ranking 58th this season in offensive boards after ranking 10th last year in that category. That should lead to a number of extra opportunities for the Cougars. Their lone loss this season was at #1 North Carolina in a game Charleston led midway through the 2nd half and outrebounded UNC. In Davidson’s lone road game this year, they were down 21 points vs Wright State and had to battle back and picked up a fortunate win in OT. They followed that up with a 4 point win over VMI at home, a team picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. They could easily have 2 losses in their first 3 games under new head coach Matt McKillop who took over for his father after Bob McKillop retired at the end of last season. Tough match up for Davidson here and we’ll take College of Charleston to win at home.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets +9.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET - After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis -2.5 over Memphis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Billikens have been waiting for this one. Last year they finished with a 23-12 record and one of their worst losses of the season was @ Memphis 90-74. SLU actually attempted 22 more shots in that game but couldn’t hit the broadside making just 31% (Memphis hit 54%) and from beyond the arc only 23% (Memphis made 47%). While St Louis returns 5 players that started at least 16 games last year + they get Perkins back from injury (17 PPG in 2020/21 season), Memphis only has 3 players returning out of the 10 that played double digit minutes in last year’s game vs the Billikens. The Tigers have a number of transfers they are trying to incorporate which will take some time and they’ve only played 1 game so far this season. That was a 9-point win @ Vandy which doesn’t look all that impressive after the Commodores followed that loss up with another home 12-point setback vs Southern Miss who is projected by most to finish at the bottom of the Sun Belt this season. St Louis also added a veteran transfer from Missouri, Pickett, who averaged 11 PPG in the SEC last season and has scored 24 in his 2 games for SLU this year. They also have one of the more unheralded point guards in the nation in Yuri Collins who is drawing the attention of NBA scouts. St Louis was banged up last year with their top scorer Perkins on the shelf and a few other key players in and out of the line up and they still finished with a very good record. 8 of their 12 losses last year were by 7 points or less and now they are full strength and an undervalued team early in the season. With the short spread they may need to salt this one away at the FT line late and they can do just that hitting 80% from the stripe as a team this season after 77% a year ago. Huge home game for SLU and we’ll lay it.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford +5.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We think this Stanford team is undervalued to start the season. They are 1-1 with a win over Pacific and a loss vs a Wisconsin team that is much better than many think. In their game vs Wisconsin, which was in Milwaukee, the Cardinal were 4 point dogs and now they are getting 5 or 5.5 at home vs San Diego State in this game. We have this one powered to SDSU as a 2 point favored so the value is on Stanford. In their 60-50 loss vs the Badgers, the shooting lines at AmFam Field in Milwaukee (home of the Brewers) were horrible and it showed in the shooting percentages. Stanford shot just 36% and they were 1 of 16 from beyond the arc for 6%! We expect them to shoot much better at home where they hit 60% of their shots in the opener vs Pacific. Stanford returns 7 of their top 9 scorers from last year and add one of the top 3 point shooters in the country, Michael Jones, who averaged 12 PPG for Davidson last year. SDSU is very solid and one of the favorites in the MWC but a bit overvalued in our opinion. They just faced BYU, who we have power rated almost the same as Stanford, at home and while the Aztecs won by 8, they trailed for most of the game taking their first lead in the 2nd half with just over 4:00 remaining. The Aztecs had a huge edge at the FT line making 26 freebies to just 10 for BYU. That was a big revenge game for San Diego State after losing to BYU 66-60 last season. Now SDSU makes their first road trip of the season and they might be looking ahead to their trip to Hawaii for the Maui Classic up next. Not a great spot vs a solid team off a loss. Take the points with Stanford at home tonight.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS +7.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We don’t have a problem backing the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back for several reasons. Going back to the start of last season the Clippers are 8-9 SU when playing without rest with a +/- of -1.1PPG. In their win last night, they spread their minutes out with no starter playing more than 30 minutes. In fact, 10 players played 18+ minutes. LA has been better on the road than at home this season with a 5-2 SU record and an average differential of +2.5PPG which is 5th best in the NBA. The key for the Clippers has been their defense on the road as they allow just 1.068-points per possession which is 2nd best in the league. Dallas is off to a 7-5 SU start to the season with a 6-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.8PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.3PPG. In their last four home games they have won by a combined 11-points. Too many points, grab the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - This offers a perfect opportunity to back an elite NBA team off a loss as the Suns just suffered a road defeat in Orlando. The Suns are 4-0 SU off a loss this season and an impressive 39-15 SU dating back to the start of the 2020 season in this situation. The record back to 2020 is the best in the NBA and they’ve won those games by an average of +7.3PPG. Not only that, the Suns have the best straight up road record since 2020 at 66-33 SU with a +/- of +3.1PPG. Typically, when you talk about the Miami Heat the first thing that comes to mind is defense, but that hasn’t been a strong point this season. In fact, Phoenix I 1st in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency. The Heat are 11th in PPG given up per game, 24th in FG% defense and 24th in defending the 3-point line. The Suns also hold a big advantage offensively with the 4th best efficiency rating in the league compared to the Heat’s 17th ranking. Both teams have key injuries with the Suns potentially without Chris Paul the Heat may miss Tyler Herro for this contest. Miami is 0-6 ATS off a win, Phoenix is 8-3 ATS their last eleven off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +1.5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - Statistical support is somewhat difficult for this analysis as the Hornets numbers are misleading based on the injured players to date. Charlotte has been without starting PG Ball who came back in their most recent game and logged 28-minutes with 15-points and 6 assists. He paid immediate dividends on the offensive end of the floor as the Hornets shot 51% for the game which was well above their season average of 44.6% which is 26th in the league. Orlando is in an unfamiliar role here as a favorite which has happened just one other time this season, a game in which they lost by 7 to the Rockets. The Hornets are playing with same season revenge here as they lost on this court a few weeks back by 20-points. Charlotte was without two starters in Rozier and Ball, while the Magic had rookie sensation Banchero in the lineup. Banchero is questionable tonight and not 100% even if he does play. Orlando has played the weaker schedule and is also off a big upset win over the Suns. Charlotte gets a much-needed road win here.

#862 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* College of Charleston -2.5 over Richmond, Monday at 7 PM ET - Richmond is a bit overvalued in our opinion due to their late season spurt last year. They finished the regular season 6th in the A10 but made a run in the conference tourney, won it, and went to the Big Dance where they beat Iowa in the first round. Problem is, they lose most of their key players from that team including 4 of their top 5 scorers. Thus far the Spiders have played 2 home games beating VMI, who is picked to finish last in the Southern Conference, and Northern Iowa who won the MVC last year but lost 4 of their top 5 players including conference player of the year AJ Green. Now they go on the road for the first time vs an undervalued C of C team. The Cougars are a deep team that goes 10 deep and plays at a hectic pace (2nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season). They return a number of key players from last year’s 17-15 team and are picked by many, including us, as one of the top teams in the Colonial this season. They just played #1 ranked North Carolina on the road on Friday giving the Heels all they could handle. C of C led by 7 at halftime and actually outrebounded UNC including an impressive 15 offensive boards. The Cougars ranked 10th nationally in offensive rebounding last season and should dominate the glass tonight. In their 16 point loss vs UNC, the Heels shot lights out at 60% and attempted 38 FT’s to just 9 for Charleston yet the Cougs were still leading midway through the 2nd half on the road. In their other game this season, Charleston beat Chattanooga by at, a team who won the SOCON last season (lost to Illinois by 1 point in the NCAA tourney) and is expected to finish near the top again this year. We’ll lay the small number with College of Charleston at home tonight.

#306630 ASA PLAY ON 8* South Dakota -5.5 over Lipscomb, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota took a loss on Tuesday at Wisconsin 85-59. We think that blowout setback is giving us some value here as our ratings have the Coyotes favored by 7 in this game. SD returns the top backcourt in the Summit League with Perrott-Hunt (15 PPG) and Archambault (14.5 PPG) from a team that went 19-12 last year. They also bring back guard Plitzuweit who sat out last season due to an injury after averaging 19 PPG as a freshman in 2020 and North Dakota transfer Bruns who put up 15 PPG last year and was the Summit’s freshman of the year. This backcourt is loaded. Because of their strong guard play, the Coyotes ranked 22nd nationally last year hitting over 37% of their triples. On Tuesday vs Wisconsin, they were just 2 of 15 from deep for just 13% vs the defensively stout Badgers. They hung fairly well on the boards despite being outsized (-5 rebounds) and only turned the ball over 10 times which is a testament to their solid guard play. Now back at home, South Dakota takes a big step down from a team that won the Big 10 last year (Wisconsin) to Lipscomb who finished 6-10 last season in the Atlantic Sun Conference. The Bisons had some key injury problems last season and will be improved but we feel this is a tough spot for their first game of the season. While SD will own a solid edge in the backcourt, Lipscomb will have an advantage inside with Asadullah patrolling the middle. However, Wisconsin also had a big edge inside and South Dakota did a very solid job of limiting their inside scoring by double teaming the post. The problem was, when they did that, the Badgers hit lights out from beyond the arc making 12 of 26 (46%). We don’t anticipate Lipscomb being that successful shooting from deep on the road in their first game of the season. Lay the rather small number with South Dakota at home.

ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks.

#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole.

#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4.

ASA play on 8* Memphis Grizzlies +2 over Golden State Warriors, 9:30 PM ET - This is a make-or-break game for the young Grizzlies, and we think they’ll respond with a home win over the Warriors. In fact, if they don’t win this game the series is over. Memphis showed great resilience in the opening round when they lost at home to Minnesota in the opener then bounced back with a 28-point win in Game 2 of that series. While Golden State hit several of their season averages and played as they were expected to, the Grizzlies did not, yet still kept the opener close. Memphis shot just 42% overall which was below their season average of 46.1%. Golden State did a great job on the boards in the opener but expect a swing in favor of Memphis in this category as they were the #1 offensive rebounding team in the NBA, Golden State was 10th. Defensively these two teams were essentially dead even in the regular season ranking 10th and 11th. Memphis was very good off a loss this season with a 20-9 SU overall record, 12-4 SU at home off a loss. The Grizzlies are also 8-3 ATS as a home dog this season with a +/- of +1.5PPG. It’s going to be another close game, but we like the home team to break through with a “W”.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here.

ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat –6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET Tuesday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat's defense has been even better in this series by holding the Hawks to 1.030PPP which is the second-best number in the postseason behind the Bucks. Miami has held Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young to a pair of his worst offensive showings all season long. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG during the regular season and have won both home games versus the Hawks by double-digits in this series. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG during the reg ssn. Miami has covered 7 of the last eight on this court against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Much has been made of Kevin Durant and his struggles in this series, but that is about to change here. Statistically, we are betting things return to normal for KD back in the friendly confines of Brooklyn. Durant shot just 9 of 24, 1 of 5 from 3 in Game 1. He then struggled in Game 2 by going 4 of 17 from the field and 1 of 2 from Deep. On the season he’s a 51.8% shooter from the filed and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Let’s also consider the Nets have average 1.160-points per possession in the two games even with his shooting woes. Boston has played extremely well in the first two games but now go on the road and face a veteran team in a must win situation. Don’t be misled by the Nets home numbers this season as Kyrie missed most of the home games due to Covid mandates. Brooklyn did go 7-2 SU their last nine home games and every one of those wins came by 5 or more points. We are banking Kyrie and KD will make a series of this yet and it has to start here. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Bucks look like the Playoff Bucks from a year ago where teams have made adjustments to stop their offensive flow, but coach Bud doesn’t make any counter moves. Now the Bucks need to find a way to win without their second-best scorer Khris Middleton who is out with a knee injury. The Bulls struggled in the opener managing just 86-points in Game 1 on 32.3% shooting. In Game 2 the Bulls found a rhythm on offense adn shot 49.4% from the field. After struggling in Game 1, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in Game 2 by hitting 16 of 31 (51.6%) and scored a career playoff-high 41 points. In Game 1, the Bulls' “Big 3” of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine went 21 of 71 (29.6%) from the field. In Game 2 those three players were 33 of 62 (53.2%). Milwaukee is going to miss Middleton’s scoring and we don’t see anyone stepping up to fill the void. In Game 1 it wasn’t a case of the Bucks playing great, as we touched on, the Bulls couldn’t buy a basket. Milwaukee won a close game with Middleton going 5 of 20 from the field for 11-points. Chicago shot 48.5% at home this season and the atmosphere/energy will be high tonight in Game 3. The Bulls were 27-14 SU at home in the regular season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. Grab the points with the home dog.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +10 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - We are betting Game 2 is going to be a dog fight and we like the double-digits with the Bulls. Game 1 of this series was ugly to say the least. The Bucks averaged .93-points per possession in the opener, the Bulls .85PPP. Those numbers were well below both teams' season averages of 1.14PPP (Bucks) and 1.12PPP (Bulls). The Bulls had an especially bad shooting night at 32% which is WELL below their season average of 48% which was the 3rd best shooting percentage in the NBA this season. Chicago also hit 36.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season but hit just 7 of 37 from deep or 19%. The Bucks didn’t shoot overly well either but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bucks were one of the worst home favorites in the NBA this season and their +/- at home wasn’t great at +4.2PPG which is down from +8.9PPG a year ago. Milwaukee was 14-24 ATS at home laying points this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +4.9PPG. Consider this, the Bulls have been double-digit dogs just two times this season and they are 2-0 ATS. Chicago has covered 8 of the last eleven here and will keep this game close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - It’s do-or-die here for the Grizzlies after the opening series loss at home in Game 1. The Grizzlies didn’t look interested from the opening tip and thought they were going to cruise to a victory. The Wolves started hot, gained confidence, and played well throughout. We don’t see Minnesota shooting 50% in Game 2 or outrebounding the Grizzlies by a +11 margin. Minny shot well above their season average from beyond the arc, Memphis shot well below. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-11 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-12 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. The Wolves were 21-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-4 SU at home off a loss this season.

ASA play on 8* Miami Heat -7 vs Atlanta Hawks, Tuesday 7:30 PM ET - Game 1 was a Heat blowout from start to finish. Miami held Trae Young to 1 of 12 field goals for the night, while Duncan Robinson made 8 of his 9 3-point attempts. We don’t see a lot changing in Game 2 as the Heat have multiple weapons on offense while the Hawks are limited beyond Young. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. Miami was 30-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 6 of the last seven here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -5 @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - I am going contrarian here as the numbers tell us its not time to use the Zig-Zag theory in this series. The Jazz got off to a slow start in Game 1 with an offensive efficiency rating or .91 in the 1st quarter which is well below their season average of 1.160PPP. For the game the Jazz shot 43% as a team overall and 32% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 47.1% and 36% which both rank in the top 11 of the NBA. Utah has had some issues with closing out games recently but the confidence gained in the opener should carry over here. Dallas averaged 1.010PPP in Game 1 which is lower than their season statistics but it’s still higher than anticipated with the absence of Luka Doncic. The Mavs will struggle to score again in this contest as Brunson and Dinwiddie can’t carry a team like Luka does. As we mentioned previously, the Jazz are one of five teams with offensive and defensive efficiency numbers good enough to win it all this year. Back them here as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 1 PM ET Sunday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat put up those impressive statistics with a roster that was hit harder than most with Covid issues. The Hawks have won two emotional games in the play-in contest and will have a hard time getting up for a third big game in a row. Not to mention they lost their starting center Capela versus the Cavs. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. These two teams met on April 8th in a meaningless game for the Heat (had sown up the #1 seed) and a purposeful game for Atlanta, yet the Heat won by 4-points. This time around it’s going to be much worse, and we call for a BLOWOUT! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 5 of the last six here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Sat 3:30 PM ET - We’re not sure everyone fully realizes just how good this Grizzlies team is and we feel they could make a serious run in the West. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-10 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-11 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. Minnesota is coming off a big home win over the Clippers and celebrated like they won the NBA Finals and we expect a letdown here. The Wolves were 20-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and the home team has won all four meetings between these two teams this season by an average of 16PPG.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We like this situation for several reasons. First the win/loss results of each teams play-in games with the Clippers home off a loss and the Pelicans on the road off a win. Despite not having their two best players for portions of the season (Leonard has been out all year) the Clippers own a 25-16 SU record at home this season with a +/- of +2.5PPG. Again, despite injuries the Clippers are a respectable 22-19 SU off a loss this season, 11-8 SU at home in that situation. L.A. has played well in Paul George’s return going 7-2 SU their last nine games allowing 109 or less points defensively in 5 straight games. The Clippers hold a decisive advantage over the Pelicans defensively with a unit that ranks 11th in PPG allowed, 6th in FG% defense and 7th in 3-point percentage. Comparatively, the Pelicans rank 13th in points allowed, 24th in opponents FG% and 26th defending the 3-point line. Offensively these two teams are similar and we would even lean towards the Clippers on that end of the floor with the return of George and Powell. Both teams rank in the low 20’s in scoring and overall FG% but the Clippers are by far the better 3-point shooting team at 37.4% compared to the Pels 33.2%. We like the Clippers who have covered 5 of their last six as a Chalk, against a Pelicans teams that is 1-5 ATS their last six against a team with an above .500 record.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have played really well since they traded for CJ McCollum shortly before the All-Star break. Since the break the Pelicans are just 13-10 SU but they have the 6th best average point differential in the league at +4.7PPG. In that same time frame, they own the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings (1.181PPP) and defensive efficiency rating (1.133PPP) and they did that with Brandon Ingram missing several games. The young Spurs have played well also but they are hovering around league average in both OEFF and DEFF for the season. For the year the Spurs are 18-23 SU on the road but do own a +/- of +0.4PPG. This game comes down to the veteran leadership of McCollum, Ingram and Valanciunas who are better than the top 3 for the Spurs. New Orleans by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 vs LA Clippers, Tuesday 9:30 PM ET - Granted the Clippers recently got Paul George back and Norman Powell but the Timberwolves have been the better team all season long. Remember we predicted the Wolves would go over their win total this season and we will continue to back them here. Karl Anthony Towns has been outstanding this season averaging 24.6PPG and 9.8 rebounds per game along with 1.1 blocks and 3.6 assists per game. The Clippers have won 5 straight games but those wins need to be taken with a grain of salt. They beat two horrible teams in the Thunder and Kings that were tanking. Phoenix was off a big win the night before against the Lakers and were locked into the #1 seed. The game before they beat the #9 seed Pelicans and prior to that they beat a Bucks team that sat their starters. So don’t be fooled by that current streak. Minnesota was pretty much settled into their playoff position and were focused on staying healthy and fresh for the postseason. The Wolves are far superior offensively ranking 8th in offensive efficiency compared to the Clippers who rank 24th. Defensively the Clippers hold an advantage ranking 8th in DEFF but the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think with the Wolves 14th. Minnesota is much better at home defensively allowing 1.074-points per possession compared to their season PPP allowed of 1.118PPP. Minny is 26-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5PPG. The Clippers are 17-24 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is 19th in the NBA. Throw out history here and simply bet the team that is currently better. Bet Minnesota!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Warriors still have some incentive to win here as they lock up the #3 seed in the West with a win. The Pelicans are locked into the 9 seed and will host San Antonio in a play-in game. Both teams played last night but the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in four days and are in their 6th game in a 10-day span and rest right now is more important than anything. New Orleans will give their bench players (which isn’t good to begin with, 8th worst in bench scoring) extended playing time here. The Warriors will play starters less in this game, but they have a bench that has produced the 11th most points per game in the NBA. In general, when playing unrested the Pels are 3-11 SU with an average +/- of -6.4PPG while the Warriors are 9-5 SU +4.5PPG. New Orleans ranks in the 20’s in most key defensive categories, the Warriors rank top 5. Offensively it isn’t close either as the Pels are 21st in scoring, 21st in 3PT% and 27th in 3PT%. Golden State is 15th in scoring, 12th in FG% and 9th in 3PT%. This is a short number and we’ll lay it with the road team!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well here so we know what kind of effort to expect from both teams. Scheduling clearly favors the Bulls here who are rested but off three straight losses and looking to rebound off a blowout loss to the Celtics. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four days. The Hornets beat the Magic last night but had suffered a pair of crushing losses to the Heat and 76ers where they gave up 144-points in each. The Bulls three recent losses came against the Celtics, Bucks and Heat who are the three best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls have been solid at home all season long with a 27-13 SU record and a +/- of +2.8PPG. The Hornets are a respectable 20-20 SU away with a +/- of -1PPG. Charlotte is 1-13 SU on the season when playing without rest, 3-11 ATS minus nearly -6PPG. The Bulls have struggled covering numbers of late but this line is so low we’re basically just asking them to win. Easy call on the Bulls!

ASA top play on 9* LA Clippers +1.5 vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Here’s the deal. The Suns are locked into the #1 seed in the Western Conference and overall. They had lost two straight prior to facing the Lakers on Tuesday night. They started and played regulars against the Lakers as it gave them a chance to help eliminate L.A. so they don’t face them in the playoffs. But expect a night off for the regulars against the Clippers on Wednesday. The Clippers have been without Paul George for a large portion of the season but he’s back now and they are trying to build continuity before the start of the playoffs. These two teams are very similar defensively and rate two of the better defenses in the NBA. The Suns have much better offensive numbers, but the Clippers have missed Kawhi Leonard for the entire season and George for most of it. The Clippers have been home underdogs just 8 times since the start of the 2020 season and they’ve covered six of those games. This is a tough game to find statistical support for the Clippers ,but the situation couldn’t be better for the home team here. Grab the points!

#722 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4 over North Carolina, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We’ve been on Carolina each of the past 2 games and cashed but feel this is where their run ends. First off the situation for the Tar Heels is really tough. It’s almost as if they just played their National Championship game 48 hours ago beating Duke in the biggest game ever in that storied rivalry. There was such hype and pressure on the players and coaches entering that game and then on top of that an intense back and forth game where no team led by more than 7 points. UNC has played with nearly zero bench and all 5 starters in that game topped 33 minutes. One of their top players Armando Bacot (22 rebounds) injured his ankle in the 2nd half, came back but was still noticeably limping which could be an issue tonight. He will play but the Heels may have to dig deeper in their bench at times tonight to get him a break. Especially since we expect an extremely fast paced game with both teams loving to play up tempo. KU rolled over Villanova 81-65 and were able to spread their minutes out a bit more with 7 guys playing double digit minutes. Kansas has played the tougher schedule (3rd highest SOS nationally) and they have the better offense (6th adjusted efficiency) and defense (17th adjusted efficiency). Their defense has been playing at the top of their game down the stretch holding 4 of their 5 opponents in the NCAA to 65 points or less and 8 of their last 9 to that same number or less. Even though we were on UNC on Saturday Duke (felt +4 was definitely too high) they were a bit lucky to win that game outright. Duke took 8 more shots but made just 22% of their 3’s (averaged 37%) and only 60% of their FT’s (averaged 74%). We felt the Devils shooting overall would regress in that game but didn’t expect 5 of 22 from deep. The Jayhawks were more than comfortable playing in this huge venue on Saturday making 54% of their shots and 77% of their FT’s vs a very good Nova defense. They most likely won’t shoot those percentages tonight but if they do it will be a runaway. Even if they regress more toward their averages in this one, they still win and cover this game in our opinion. The last 15 years the winner of the National Championship game has had a margin of at least +6 points 12 times. We like Kansas to get that win tonight.

#703 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +4.5 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - The way these 2 teams are playing at the moment we have them rated almost dead even. This number says that Duke is 4 points better on a neutral court which we disagree with. It could be argued that UNC is actually playing better right now. In the NCAA they beat Marquette by 30+ points, beat #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game UNC led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7, and then crushed a red hot St Peter’s team that had beaten Kentucky, Murray State, and Purdue leading up to that game. Duke struggled with Michigan State (7th rated team in the Big 10) trailing late and were down much of the game vs Texas Tech and won a tight one. The Heels have had more clean wins so to speak in this tourney vs teams that have an average rank of 42 in Ken Pom ratings compared to Duke’s opponents who have an average rank of 56. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance covering by an average of 15 PPG while Duke is 3-1 ATS covering by an average of 2.5 PPG. The Devils have been shooting absolute lights out and we just don’t see that continuing here in New Orleans Superdome, a huge venue. They have taken 36 fewer shots than their opponents in the NCAA tourney but they’ve topped 50% from the field in every game and hit a ridiculous 54% for the entire tourney. Duke is a very good shooting team (48%) but if they don’t shoot lights out in every game so far they most likely aren’t here right now. The Heels have shot 10% points lower in the tourney (44%) and they’ve pretty much dominated every team they’ve played despite that. These two rivals split their 2 meetings this year with each winning on the other’s home court. The most recent was the regular season finale at Duke where the Devils had all the reason in the world to win that game sending Coach K out with a win in his final home game. UNC dominated and won by 13 in arguably the toughest atmosphere of the season in college hoops. Speaking of currently being undervalued, the Tar Heels have won 4 in a row outright as a dog winning @ VaTech, @ Duke, and beating Baylor and UCLA in the Dance. Lastly, much more pressure on Duke here to win this thing for Coach K and UNC is sort of playing with house money making it to the Final 4 as an 8 seed. We’ll take the points in a game we feel is dead even.

#893 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2.5 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This line opened with FSU as a 5 point chalk which is exactly where we had the game power rated. It has since dropped so we’ll take the value with the road team. Fresno got to this Championship game by rolling over a solid Southern Utah team on Monday by 19 points and holding them to just 48 points. CC won @ South Alabama by 1 point in OT but is wasn’t a full strength opponent. South Alabama played that game without their 2 leading scorers, Manning and Chandler, who combine to average 31 PPG, 7 RPG, and 6 APG. Even with that the Chanticleers needed a 3 pointer with only a few seconds remaining to send the game to OT where the won. If USA was at full strength, we’re pretty confident in saying CC wouldn’t even be here. They are playing this game at home, however they lost 6 games at home this season including 5 conference games (Sun Belt) so it’s not a huge advantage. If we use the Ken Pom ratings here, Fresno will be the highest rated team Coastal has played all season. Not one Sun Belt team ranked inside the top 130 and Fresno is currently ranked 78th. FSU has the much better overall numbers with a points per possession differential of +10.7 per 100 possessions compared to Coastal which is +1.0 in the same category. Consider that and the fact that Fresno played the MUCH tougher schedule (ranked 100 spots higher in SOS). The Bulldogs rank 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 3rd nationally in PPG allowed at 58. Coastal Carolina has faced ONE top 100 defense all season (adjusted efficiency) so this will be a huge step up in what they are used to seeing. CC is also loose with the ball (307th in TO %) which will be an issue vs the best defense they’ve faced this season. Lastly, on top of all that, Fresno will have the best player on the floor in 7-foot Orlando Robinson (19 PPG, 8 RPG) who Ken Pom has rated as the 7th best player in the country. We don’t have to worry about motivation here. This is the Basketball Classic Championship game so we expect both teams to bring their A game. Fresno’s best is better than Coastal’s best so we’ll lay the small number.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a very big game for both teams as they jockey for better playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs currently hold the 7th spot in the East, the Hawks are 10th but only 3 games separate the two teams. The Cavs are struggling right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games and injuries have a lot to do with it. Cleveland has been without All-Star Jarrett Allen and now are playing without Evan Mobley. Those two are the Cavs best two frontline players and its showed in recent games as they’ve been outscored by 68-points in the paint the past three games. Atlanta has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five and are making a strong late season push. The Hawks have won 8 of their last nine home games and one of those wins came against this same Cavs team 124-116. The Cavs had Mobley for that game and he grabbed 10 rebounds and scored 22-points. The Hawks have a +5.8PPG average MOV at home this season, while the Cavs have a negative differential in their last five games of -6PPG. The healthy Hawks get a big home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +3 at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are coming off opposite results with the Raptors coming off a big OT win over the Celtics, while the Timberwolves are off a bad loss in Boston. The Wolves have lost 3 of their last four games but those beats came against the Celtics, Mavericks and Suns. Minnesota is 19-8 SU their last 27 games and a team nobody wants to face in the Western Conference playoffs. Toronto is 9-2 SU their last eleven games which has me wondering why they are such a low home favorite here. The Wolves have the 10th best road margin of victory in the NBA at +.5PPG and they’ve covered 5 of their last six away from home. Minnesota is 16-17 SU off a loss but have covered 8 of their last nine in that situation. Toronto is just 2-6 ATS their last eight as a home favorite and really struggled beating a Celtics team the other night that was without Tatum, Brown, Williams and Horford. Grab the points with Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -6.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Obviously, the Spurs have everything to play for right now as they still have a shot at getting into the post season. With just 20 wins the Rockets season is essentially done. The line on this game opened -5.5 points and was immediately bet up by the Sharps. There is still value and we’ll take the road favorite. The Spurs are significantly better offensively than the Rockets who rank 19th in scoring, 22nd in FG%, 21st in 3-point% and 30th in rebounding. The Spurs rank 8th in scoring, 12th in shooting and 17th in 3-point% with the 9th best offensive rebounding average in the league. Defensively the Spurs aren’t great ranking mid-20’s in most key defensive categories but the Rockets are far worse ranking 30th in points allowed and opponents FG%. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 4 of five. Houston has won 2 in a row but both were against Portland. The Rockets are just 1-4 SU their last five home games and they have the 3rd worst +/- at home in the NBA at minus -6.8PPG. The Spurs have drubbed this Rockets team in the two most recent meetings by 30 and 25-points respectively. Lay the points!

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -8 over St Peters, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We took Purdue over St Peters on Friday night and lost but the value here on UNC is simply too good to pass up. Purdue was just favored by 13 points over the Peacocks on Friday and now UNC is laying only in the -8 or -8.5 range? We have North Carolina and Purdue power rated almost dead even but the line is 5 points lower than just 2 days ago? St Peter’s was also an 18 point dog vs Kentucky just last week! We realize they are playing well and quite frankly WAY above their heads when compared to their season numbers but this adjustment is too much. We realize STP is playing well but what about the Heels? They’ve won 9 of their last 10 and many convincingly. They won by double digits @ Duke to close out the regular season and beat UVA by 20 in the ACC tourney. Once UNC hit the Dance they’ve beaten Marquette by 32, #1 seed Baylor by 7 in a game they led by 25 points midway through the 2nd half, and then just beat a very good UCLA team that was in the Final 4 last year by 7. UNC will cream St Peter’s on the boards just as Purdue did (+16 rebound margin). The Boilers problem on Friday were turnovers (23% TO rate) and poor 3 point shooting (23%). We expect UNC to handle the pressure much better than Purdue and they’ve been hot from 3 hitting just over 37% in the tourney. The Peacocks still remain by far the worst offensive team left in the tourney. They rank 216th in adjusted efficiency (next worst team in Elite eight ranks 53rd) and they rank 253rd in eFG%. They will struggle to score vs UNC’s length inside so they’ll need to be red hot from deep to stay in this game. We love the STP story and they are playing very well but this is a tough match up vs a highly talented team playing at their peak level right now. That along with the value in the number here have us on North Carolina.

#641 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +4 over Duke, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET - Duke was a bit fortunate with their win over Texas Tech on Thursday. They won 78-73 which was their largest lead of the entire game. The Blue Devils shot 52% from the field and made 10 more FT’s and still only led for 7 minutes from the 7:00 minute mark of the first half through the end of the game (final 27 minutes of game time). In their previous game Duke shot 57% vs Michigan State and made 5 more FT’s yet trailed late before pulling out a win. So they shot lights out both games yet trailed both with under 3:00 minutes remaining. The Arkansas defense has been great in this tourney including holding the #1 offense in America (Gonzaga) to just 68 points on 38% shooting on Thursday. Nothing new for the Razors as they rank 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. We have to expect with Duke playing another top notch defense their offensive shooting percentage stays below 50% here which should make this game tight. It could be argued that since mid January, the Razorbacks have played as well as anyone in the country. They have won 18 of their last 21 games and 2 of those losses have come by 4 points or less. 10 of those 18 wins came vs NCAA tourney teams. Duke was struggling entering this tourney losing their home finale vs UNC and then losing in the ACC tourney vs Va Tech and as we said they were close to losing each of their last 2 games. Arkansas just beat who most consider the best team in the country despite not playing great offensively. They made just 40% of the shots, 28% of their 3’s and made 6 fewer FT’s than the Zags. That’s how well their defense has been playing. They have been an underdog 5 times this season and covered all 5 by an average of almost 9 PPG. We expect this to be close throughout and we have to take the points in this one.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 5 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround revenge game for the Spurs who were blown out by the Pelicans on March 18th, 91-124. Coach Popp was ejected in the second quarter after the Spurs scored just 10-points in the 1st. This game has huge playoff implications as both are fighting to stay in the top 10 in the West. After the loss to the Pels the Spurs bounced back with a win over the Warriors then blew out the Blazers. The Pelicans are off a big home win over the Bulls but are 1-3 SU their last four at home. New Orleans is 17-20 SU at home and below average in +/- of +1.1PPG. San Antonio is 15-21 SU on the road but they are 15th in the league in average MOV at +0.2PPG. The Spurs have covered 6 straight in New Orleans and are 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings overall. Grab the points.

#635 ASA PLAY ON 8* Providence +7.5 over Kansas, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We think Kansas is a flawed #1 seed. They are very good offensively but on defense they are just OK for a team looking to win a National Title. They rank outside the top 25 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. That being said, we loved their situation last week facing a Creighton team that was without 2 of their top 3 players including 7 foot center Kalkbrenner who was injured in the Jays opening round NCAA game. That left a huge hole in the middle both offensively and defensively for Creighton and forced an already ultra thin team to start a player who usually plays limited minutes (Feazell) for the first time this season. Even with all of those advantages the Jayhawks struggled to get the win never leading by double digits. Providence is a tough, veteran group (5 senior starters) that can absolutely give Kansas a run here. The analytics guys have been pounding on Providence all year as being lucky and winning too many close games. Much of that is true, however the fact is they know how to win the close games and they’ve done it on a regular basis. They won the Big East regular season and have only 5 losses all season, 2 of which were down to the wire games vs a #2 seed Villanova. The Friar defense has played fantastic in the Dance completely shutting down a South Dakota State offense that was the #1 three point shooting team in the nation. The Jackrabbits scored just 57 points in that game, their lowest total of the season. Following that win they faced a red hot Richmond team who had won 5 straight taking out Dayton, Davidson in the A10 tourney and Iowa in the NCAA. Providence crushed the Spiders by 28 holding them to 51 points. They are a slow paced team (283rd in adjusted tempo) that will make this a half court game. KU likes to speed the game up but will have a problem here doing that unless they get out to a huge lead which we do not expect. When facing the slower paced teams in the Big 12, Kansas had some trouble. The 4 slowest paced teams in the Big 12 were Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa State. The Jayhawks were 7-2 SU vs those teams, however all but one of those wins were decided by single digits. We expect a tight game in this one and we’ll take the generous points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -3.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - We love to back elite NBA teams when they are off embarrassing losses which is the case here for Utah. The Jazz are coming off a humbling 97-125 loss against the Celtics on Wednesday night and should rebound here with a big effort. After facing the #1 ranked defense in the NBA the Jazz step down here to face a Charlotte team that is 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.135-points per possession. Utah is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and they couldn’t buy a basket from deep against the Celtics but should have success here versus a Hornets D that allows 35.9% which is 21st in the league. Utah ranks top 7 in the NBA in points scored, FG% offense, 3-PT% and rebounding. They are also top 11 defensively in those same categories. While the Hornets are top 13 in most key offensive categories, they rank 28th in points allowed 19th in FG% D, 21st in 3-PT% and 29th in defensive rebounding. Charlotte has won 5 of their last six games but are coming off a loss to the Knicks. Charlotte doesn’t possess a great home court advantage which is why they are 19-18 SU at home with a below average +/- of +0.4PPG. We like the bounce back factor with the Jazz in this one.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -12.5 over St Peters, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - Here is the end of the line for the Peacocks. The line may seem a bit high at 12.5 but we’re actually getting some value on Purdue based on St Peters Cinderella run. The Peacocks faced Kentucky to open the NCAA tournament and they were 18 point underdogs in that game. Our power ratings would have UK favored by just 2 over Purdue on a neutral court so that tells us if this game was played last week we were probably going to see the Boilers as a 15 or 16 point favorite. STP’s offense has been below average all season long and played well above their expectations in the first 2 games of the NCAA. They averaged 1.13 and 1.09 PPP in those two wins over Kentucky and Murray State but their season average vs subpar competition for the most part was just 1.00 PPP. Purdue will be the best offense the Peacocks have faced this season. The Boilers rank 2nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, 3rd in 2 point FG%, 3rd in 3 point FG%, and 7th in scoring at 80 PPG. To put that in perspective, the MAAC, St Peter’s conference, has a grand total of ONE team ranked inside the top 170 in offensive efficiency. That was Iona who beat the Peacocks both times they met this season. STP doesn’t have the size to hang in this game. Purdue is huge. They have 2 very good inside threats in 7 foot 4 Ivey and 6 foot 10 Williams. STP’s biggest player in the regular rotation is 6 foot 8 he is a freshman. Purdue should dominate the interior which will open up their 3 point shooters which are deadly (39% as a team). They should also completely control the boards on both ends limiting St Peter’s to one shot on the vast majority of possessions while gathering offensive boards to give themselves extra possessions as well. On top of that, St Peter’s fouls A LOT so Purdue should live at the FT line where they hit 71%. The Peacocks had their nice opening weekend but it ends here and Purdue runs away with this one.

#629 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -1 over Duke, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - We knew Tech would come out as a favorite in this game and we knew the masses would flock to Duke as a dog. There is a reason Texas Tech is favored. They are the better team and a bad match up for this young Blue Devil team. The Raiders are a veteran team that plays very physical which is a rough brand of basketball that Duke isn’t used to. TT ranks #1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, they create TO’s on almost 24% of possessions, and they are a very good rebounding team. They have big advantages in all of those categories in this game. Duke’s offense thrives in transition but Tech will make this a half court game. Even if the Devils are able to get some up tempo at times, the Raiders are great at transition defense allowing the lowest eFG% in the country in transition (43%). TT is also fantastic defensively inside the arc allowing the 3rd lowest % of points from 2-point land. If Duke wins this game, it will be because they get red hot from outside the 3 point line. We’ll take our chances there as Tech is also very solid at defending the 3 allowing 31%. The Red Raider defense gets the accolades but their offense is solid and underrated. They rank 46th nationally in adjusted efficiency and they are fantastic as scoring inside the arc hitting 55% of their shots (22nd nationally) and scoring over 55% of their points from 2-point range (76th nationally). Duke’s defense has been shaky to say the least allowing 75 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. They’ve allowed at least 1.10 PPP in 6 of their last 8 games. To put that in perspective, Texas Tech allows 0.84 PPP adjusted efficiency on the season! The Devils haven’t faced a defense anywhere near this good since November (Gonzaga & Kentucky). There is not a single ACC defense ranked inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency. Lots of pressure on this young team to get it done in Coach K’s final run. They couldn’t do it in their home finale getting rolled by UNC. They couldn’t do it in the ACC tourney getting smoked by Va Tech in the final. We don’t think they’re tough enough to get it done here and we’ll call for Texas Tech to move onto the Elite 8.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -13 over Youngstown State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - YSU has played the 2nd easiest schedule in the entire country this season. Fresno State will be just the 3rd top 100 team (per Ken Pom) that Youngstown has faced the entire season. The first 2 were vs West Virginia (30 point loss) and Penn State (16 point loss). We think the Penguins will have huge problems offensively in this game. Their overall offensive stats aren’t terrible as they rank 189th in efficiency. The problem with that is, they’ve faced a terrible set of defenses this year. YSU resides in the Horizon League which has ZERO top 100 defenses (efficiency wise) and ONE defense ranked inside the top 200. That means in their 22 conference games, 20 were vs defenses ranked lower than 200 in adjusted efficiency. Looking at the season as a whole, the Penguins faced 2 defenses this year (in 33 games) that were ranked inside the top 100. They scored 52 and 59 points in those games. Fresno State’s defense is very good ranking 3rd nationally allowing just 58 PPG and 33rd nationally in efficiency. On the other end of the court, FSU should have a field day vs YSU’s defense which ranks 311th in efficiency. To put that in perspective not ONE team in the Mountain West Conference has a defense that ranks 300 or lower. The only one that is close in San Jose State and Fresno won all 3 meetings with the Spartans have an average of 17.3 PPG scoring an average of 74 PPG in those games. That may not seem like a huge number but when your defense allows teams to score in the 50’s, getting to 70+ points gets Fresno in the “easy win” column. Fresno beat Eastern Washington in game 1 of this tourney by 9 points but they led by 18 with just 2 minutes remaining. YSU struggled with a bad Morgan State team (won by 5) that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers in that game. Long travel for a Youngstown team that will be overmatched here.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is clearly higher than it should be because of the Celtics current hot streak. That makes it a great opportunity to sell high and buy low with Utah. We must acknowledge Boston’s 20-3 SU run and won’t pretend that it doesn’t exist, but this is a solid spot to fade them. Utah doesn’t have a great overall road record at 19-16 SU but they do own the 5th best average margin of victory at +3.3PPG. Boston has a 24-12 SU home record with a differential of +5.5PPG. These two teams own two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Jazz top 10 in points allowed FG% D and 3-point % D and rank #1 in rebounding. The Celtics are 1st in points allowed 1st in FG% D and 2nd in 3-point% but 14th in rebounding. Utah holds a huge advantage offensively with a unit that ranks top 6 in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. In comparison the Celtics rank 16th or worse in the three main offensive categories and 5th in offensive rebounding. Utah is a solid 15-11 SU when coming off a loss, while the C’s are 8-14-1 ATS when off a win. In a few of their recent road games the Jazz have been favored over the Nets, Knicks and Mavericks and now they are getting an inflated number here. Will you be surprised in the Jazz win this outright? I won’t!

#611 ASA PLAY ON 8* Vanderbilt +4 over Xavier, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We have this game handicapped at dead even so we like the value with Vandy getting more than a full possession here. Xavier will most likely be without one of their top players Paul Scruggs who averages 12 PPG, 4 RPG, and 4 APG. He was injured in Sunday’s win over Florida and was in crutches following the game so the chance of him playing 48 hours later is slim to none. The Musketeers struggled in their NIT opener squeaking by Cleveland State despite the Vikings making just 1 three pointer in 12 attempts. After that win they faced a Florida team over the weekend that is in a bit of disarray with their coach leaving for Georgia just prior to the NIT tipping off. Vandy took care of a solid Belmont team and they topped Dayton, the 2nd best team in the A10 behind Davidson. The Commodores will have the best player on the floor in this game with Scotty Pippen Jr. He is coming off a 32 point performance vs a Dayton defense that was ranked 2nd in the A10 in efficiency. Vandy has been undervalued all season long as they continue to put up winning spread numbers. They have covered 8 straight as an underdog and their spread record on the season is a money making 22-13. Xavier is the opposite. After a very solid start they were terrible down the stretch losing 8 of their last 10 games before entering the NIT. They have 5 home losses on the season and they’ve covered just 4 of their last 15 as a favorite. Vanderbilt is better defensively, they create more turnovers, and they are the better 3 point shooting team. This one has the makings of an upset and we’ll grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 versus Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the scenario here with the Bulls coming off a game last night and the Bucks coming off a horrible loss a few nights ago in Minnesota. There is value in this number. Earlier this month these two teams squared off in Chicago and the oddsmaker set a spread of Bucks -5.5-points. Now the Bucks are laying 6-points at home! Chicago has not faired well against the leagues elite teams and are currently 0-5 ATS their last five versus teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. On the season the Bulls are 4-18 SU against the top 10 teams in the league. The Bucks have been terrible as a home favorite this season, but they have covered 5 of their last six as a chalk. The Bucks have a +/- of 4.6PPG, the Bulls have a negative road differential of -2.9PPG. Given the circumstances and the fact the Bucks just laid a similar number in Chicago (and won by 6-points) we like them here by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hornets have been a “hot or cold” team all season long and right now they are currently “hot” with 4 straight wins and covers. Included in this four game stretch is a 142-120 win over the Pelicans as a -3.5-point favorite in New Orleans. The Pels did play without McCollum and Ingram in that game and will again be without Ingram their leading scorer here. New Orleans is coming off a road win yesterday in Atlanta and also playing their 3rd game in a four-day span. Last night saw their starters all get extended minutes and the bench is short the way it is. When playing without rest this season the Pels are 2-10 SU with an average loss margin of -8PPG. The Pelicans aren’t great off a win either with a 6-11 SU road record in that situation. The Hornets last four wins have all come by double digits and they own the 5th best average point differential in the NBA over the last five games. Charlotte has covered 6 straight as a favorite and they get a big 10+ point win in this one.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas Tech -7.5 over Notre Dame, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We lost going against ND on Friday vs a Bama team that looked lethargic and played a terrible game. On top of that, the Tide lost arguably their best player (Quinerly) just 3 minutes into the game. The Irish were able to outlast Alabama by shooting 54% for the game and 60% from 3 point land. They won’t get anywhere near those numbers in this game vs Texas Tech who has the #1 defensive team in the nation (adjusted efficiency). The Raiders are rested after destroying Montana State in round 1 and they are a very poor match up for the Irish. Tech is a dominant rebounding team that is very physical. That’s a problem for Notre Dame who is not a physical team, nor a good rebounding team, AND they are playing their 3rd game in 5 days including long travel (2,200 miles) after their first 4 in double OT win on Wednesday. We expect ND to have tired legs in this one which is one thing you absolutely don’t want when playing Texas Tech who will be up in the Irish shorts defensively the entire game. In their win over the Tide, Bama actually controlled the offensive boards and pushed Notre Dame into a 25% TO rate. Those 2 things led to 10 more shot attempts for the Crimson Tide but a poor shooting night after losing Quinerly was their downfall. If ND turned it over 25% of the time vs Bama (204th nationally in defensive TO %) they are in huge trouble here vs the Red Raiders who turn teams over 24% of the time (10th nationally). Between that and the big rebounding edge we expect here, Tech should create a lot of extra possessions. If ND doesn’t shoot lights out again, they are in trouble in this game. With tired legs and facing a great defense, we anticipate they won’t. It’s the end of the road for the Irish and we look for Tech to win this by double digits.

#797 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s +2.5 over UCLA, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - UCLA steps into this game after a physical, down to the wire defensive battle with Akron. The Bruins escaped with a 57-53 win in that game. The Bruins trailed for all but 3 minutes in the 2nd half of that game despite making 4 more three point shots and 4 more FT’s. St Mary’s should come in rested after their whitewashing of the Indiana Hoosiers (our Top Game on Thursday). The Gaels won by 29 points and they were able to spread out their minutes with 12 different players seeing court time. Thursday was St Mary’s first game since March 8th and they are facing a UCLA team playing their 5th game in 10 days. As we wrote on Thursday vs Indiana, the Gaels have size and defend the interior very well which is where UCLA likes to operate. They also won’t be dominated on the boards as St Mary’s ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive rebounding so very few extra possession off the boards for the Bruins. Both defenses are outstanding with STM ranking 9th nationally in efficiency and UCLA 14th. On offense both teams hit their 3 point attempts at 35% but the Gaels are better inside the arc and at the FT line where they make 76% as a team. We have these teams rated basically dead even. The strength of schedules were very close with UCLA a slight edge. Each team went 1-2 vs the #1 seed which resided in their respective conferences (Gonzaga & Arizona). STM was 7-4 SU vs tourney teams and UCLA was 6-4. Our power ratings have UCLA as a 1 point favorite so we’ll take the value on St Mary’s here.

#788 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET - Michigan came from 15 down vs Colorado State on Thursday to pick up a first round win. They did so without starting PG Jones (11 PPG, 5 RPG, 5 APG) who is out with a concussion but it will be tough to compete in this one without him. He did not make the trip to Indy and they’re hoping he can play next week if Michigan makes it that far which we project they will not. The Wolverines shot over 50% vs CSU and the Rams made just 35% of their shots vs a Wolverine defense that hasn’t been great this year (11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency). Michigan also made 14 more FT’s in the game and those 2 things tell us this game should have been a blowout and it wasn’t. Now the Wolverines face a lock down UT defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. It’s a Vols team that is playing as well as anyone in the nation right now winning 13 of their last 14 with their only loss coming @ Arkansas by 6. In the SEC tourney Tennessee topped a top notch Kentucky team by 7 (led by 14 in the 2nd half) and then rolled a red hot A&M team by 15 in the final. While Michigan had a fairly tough opening round game vs CSU, they trailed at half and really only played 6 guys decent minutes, UT is rested after rolling Longwood by 30+ and played 8 guys double digit minutes. These 2 both played top 10 schedules this year but UT is +26 points per 100 possessions vs their opponents while Michigan is +16 pints per 100 possessions. Tennessee might just be the best team in the country right now. The much better D playing a less than 100% Michigan team is a take for us.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:10 PM ET - Yes, we know just how hot the Mavericks have been, but we like the situation to fade them here. Dallas is coming off a huge last second win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night and we expect a letdown here. Philly is coming off a win in Cleveland, but they didn’t play well so expect a rebound here back at home. The Mavs were recently a +6.5-point underdog at Boston which means this line is off by a few points. Philadelphia was a home favorite of -3.5-points two games ago at home against Denver who rates higher than the Mavs in our power index. The Mavs don’t have anyone that can match up with Joel Embiid who is scoring nearly 30PPG with 11.4 rebounds per game this season. This is a great opportunity to back a low home favorite that is underpriced given the circumstances.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -3.5 over Notre Dame, Friday at 4:15 PM ET - Talk about a rough spot for ND. Not only did they play a double OT game on Wednesday that didn’t end until after midnight ET, they had to travel 2,200 miles to San Diego to play less than 40 hours later. The Irish basically played only 6 players with all 6 topping 33 minutes played and 3 players topping 40 minutes. Bama is ultra talented. They don’t always “show up” so to speak but they have potential future NBA players in Davison, Ellis, and Quinerly. When they are on, they are very good having beaten the likes of Gonzaga & Baylor (#1 seeds) along with Tennessee, Houston, Arkansas, LSU, and Miami FL, all NCAA tourney teams. We expect them to bring their “A” game now in the Big Dance. The Tide played the toughest schedule in the country per Ken Pom (ND 67th in schedule strength) and their PPP differential is better than the Irish despite that that (+18 points per 100 possessions to +14 for ND). Bama does struggle at times with TO’s but that shouldn’t hurt them here as the Irish are one of the worst in the nation (334th) at creating takeaways. Notre Dame is a solid shooting team but should have tired legs here vs an athletic defense that gives up just 0.98 PPP. The Irish beat just ONE team this season ranked inside the Ken Pom top 30 while Bama has 6 wins over teams in the top 20 per Ken Pom including 4 wins vs the top 10. Alabama, currently 25th, takes down the Irish on Friday.

#766 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue -16 over Yale, Friday at 2 PM ET - We feel this is one of the games in the first round that has absolute blowout potential. Yale wasn’t even the best team in the Ivy League this year but upset Princeton in the conference tourney to get here. The Bulldogs are ranked right around 150th by most power rating which would make them the worst team in the Big 10 by 10 to 15 spots behind Nebraska. Purdue faced the Huskers once this year and won 92-65. Yale hasn’t faced a top 100 team since mid December and they faced just 5 teams ranked inside the top 100 this season. The Bulldogs are 0-5 SU in those games losing by margins of 36, 22, 17, 14, and 8 points. Purdue will be the top team they’ve faced this year with the possible exception of Auburn who beat Yale by 22 points but led by 34 midway through the 2nd half. Yale is a smaller team that struggles on the boards and doesn’t defend inside very well ranking outside the top 150 in both mid range and near proximity defense. That’s a huge problem vs this Purdue offense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency, 4th in eFG%, 4th in 3 point FG%, and 11th in 2 point FG%. The Boilers should have a field day on offense and on the boards. Purdue’s achilles heel this year was their defense which ranked 99th nationally in efficiency. As “poor” as that might seem by Big 10 standards, that would rank as the #1 defense in the Ivy League! Yale ranks below 200th in both offensive efficiency and 3 point FG% so we don’t think they’ll do much offensive here. Purdue rolls up a big win here.

#748 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Mary’s -2.5 over Indiana, Thursday at 7:20 PM ET - Horrible spot here for IU. They played a physical grinder on Tuesday night vs Wyoming and a game that didn’t end until almost midnight ET. The Hoosiers pulled off the win to move on and then had to travel 2,300 miles to Portland and face a tough defensive St Mary’s team in a game that tips just 43 hours after IU beat Wyoming. On top of that, they were supposed to fly out to Portland at 1 AM and weren’t able to take off from Dayton until after 4 AM. They didn’t land in Portland until late morning on Wednesday and have to play in 36 hours. Indiana had some built in advantages on Tuesday include a huge home court advantage as the Dayton Arena (150 miles from Bloomington) that was filled with Hoosier fans. The Cowboys also turned the ball over almost 30% of the time leading to 16 more shot attempts for Indiana and they game still was undecided late. We were on IU in that game but this one is a whole different animal. St Mary’s is rested (off since March 8) and they play fantastic, physical defense. They rank 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they have size and defend the interior very well which is where IU needs to be able to score. The Hoosiers don’t have great shooting guards and they score only 25% of their points from the arc (318th nationally). Not only are the Gaels a top notch defensive team, they are the better shooting team as well. They also make almost 76% of the FT’s and rarely turn the ball over. St Mary’s is 1 of 3 teams this season to beat Gonzaga along with Bama & Duke. The Gaels also finished 3-2 vs WCC NCAA teams sweeping San Francisco and losing twice to the Zags. Really good situation for St Mary’s and we’ll lay the small price.

#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Providence -2 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - SDSU has become a way too popular underdog in this game. We basically need the Friars to just win the game with the current number. Many have brought up the Friars “luck” on the season as they’ve won a number of close games. However, the fact is, they know how to win those games and they won the Big East regular season title with a 14-3 conference record. Their only regular season conference losses were @ Marquette and 2 losses to Villanova, a 2-seed in the Dance, by 2 & 5 points. South Dakota State won the Summit League title but that is a league without a single team, besides SDSU, ranked in the top 100. The Jackrabbits played only 4 top 100 teams all season long going 2-2 in those games beating Washington State & Bradley while losing to Bama & Missouri State. The last top 100 team SDSU faced was back on December 15th. Providence played 17 games vs top 100 teams with a record of 12-5 SU. SDSU’s offensive numbers are very good but let’s take into account they did not face a top 130 defense in conference play. The Summit League is known for poor defenses with 4 of their 10 teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and 8 of the 10 outside the top 200. Providence will be the best defense they’ve faced since early December. The Friars played 9 games this season without either Reeves or Bynum, two of their best players, but are 100% healthy entering the tourney. They have a big size advantage inside and should control the glass in this game. The Friars can shoot it a little as well as they were the best 3-point shooting team in Big East play and they have one of the better big men in this tourney, Nate Watson (14 PPG, 6 RPG). With this line sitting not far from pick-em we’ll fade possibly the most popular dog in round one and side with Providence.