Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-08-19 | Bengals +10 v. Browns | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Bengals. The Bengals would love nothing more than to play spoiler on the Browns here, as another loss will essentially be the nail in the coffin as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. Cleveland is 5-7 and Cincinnati is 1-11. The Bengals destroyed the Jets 22-6 last week for their first win of the year and after that impressive performance on both sides of the ball, I look for them to carry that momentum over here. Last week the Browns lost 20-13 to the Steelers and I think they struggle once again with consistency on both sides of the ball. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 as a road dog (including 4-1 ATS this season.) - The Browns are only 9-11 ATS in their last 20 at home (including only 2-3 ATS this year.) The verdict: I like Bengals' veteran QB Andy Dalton to severely outplay Browns' QB Baker Mayfield and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to the wire; grab the points! | |||||||
12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Ravens/Bills under. The Ravens have won eight in a row behind the great play of QB Lamar Jackson and a steadily improving defense. The Bills are also putting together an exceptional season, behind a stellar defense and an improving offense. There are many story lines to this contest, but I think that in the end, this one will fall below the posted number. Key Trends: - The Ravens rank fifth in the league in points allowed with just 18.2. - Buffalo has given up just 38 points over its last three games. The verdict: Both teams depend on the run to score, with Baltimore ranked No. 1 and Buffalo ranked No. 5. Five of these team's last seven in the series have fallen under the number and everything points to another low-scoring battle on Sunday; play the under! | |||||||
12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 48-46 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the New Orleans Saints. The 49ers are now 10-2 after falling 20-17 to Baltimore last week. San Francisco faces a 10-2 Saints team which enters off a big 26-18 victory over Atlanta. In the early going all the talk has been about the 49ers' defensive play, which has been pretty good for the most part this season. But note that the Saints are actually fourth in the league in sacks with 40 so far this year. New Orleans has also scored at least 26 points in ts last three games, with QB Drew Brees throwing for 726 yards and seven TD's in that span. Key Trends: - The 49ers are only 1-4 ATS in their last five off a road cover where it lost SU as an underdog. - The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a road victory (including 3-1 ATS this year.) The verdict: I think San Francisco stumbles in this difficult road venue; lay the short points! | |||||||
12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 60 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Bears. This line has fluctuated from 2.5 to 3 throughout the week. I have 2.5. I think the Bears will win this one outright, but I'm going to grab the points in what should be a competitive battle until the end. Dallas got throughouly beatdown by the Bills at home on Thanksgiving. The offense wasn't horrible, as Prescott had 355 passing yars, but I believe the pivot takes a step back on the short week and at chilly Soldier Field. Chicago on the other hand won 24-20 over Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, coming from behind to win. QB Mitchell Trubisky finally showed some signs of life and I don't think there's any reason he won't carry that momentum over here. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. the NFC North. - Dallas is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven after a loss by ten points or more. - Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home underdog. The verdict: The Bears HAVE to win this one to keep pace in their division, while Dallas enters with a one game lead in the NFC East. I like Trubisky to outplay Prescott, but that said, let's grab the points! | |||||||
12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* BLOOD-BATH is on the Vikings. I think "revenge" works as an angle here as Minnesota has lost five straight in this series. The Vikes have had a week off to prepare for this one though. With the Lions, Chargers, Packers and Bears stil to go, this is clearly a game that the Vikes can't let slip away. Seattle allows 282 passing yards per game and Vikes' QB Kirk Cousins has been "lights out" this year, with 21 TD's and three INT's to go along with 2,756 passing yards. The Vikes allow 268 passing yards and only 94.2 rushing. I think Wilson is going to have a difficult time moving the ball effeciently today vs. this top ranked defensive unit. Key Trends: - The Vikes are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after losing a contest ATS (including 3-1 ATS this year.) - The Hawks are only 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite (including just 1-4 ATS this season.) The verdict: In a contest which I see coming "down to the wire," let's grab the points! | |||||||
12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans +3.5 | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 32 h 11 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Houston Texans. The Patriots are 10-1, but they've faced some pathetic competition this year. Pats' QB Tom Brady is only averaging 5.6 YPA over his last four games. Houston comes in off a win over the Colts and is in dire need of another victory here to keep pace for the Wild Card. Also note that it's been reported that several NE defensive players have the flu this week. Key Trends: - Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four off a no ATS cover where it happen to also win SU as the favorite. - NE is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home no cover where it won SU as the favorite. The verdict: I think Brady finally gets exposed here and while I wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm grabbing the points. | |||||||
12-01-19 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 47 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OVER Rams/Cardinals. The Rams are coming off a terrible blowout loss at home to the Ravens. Baltimore has been playing incredibly tough defense of late though and I think that Jared Goff and company can rebound here vs. the porous Cardinals' defense. Arizona has lost four straight, but it comes out of its bye week and with nothing to lose (except another game), I look for Kyler Murray and company open up the playbook as they look to deal their divisional opponent another blow. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout" in my opinion. Key Trends: - The Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five following a home loss. - The Cards have seen the total go over the number in four of five at home already. The verdict: A repeat performance to the Super Bowl is now out of the question for St. Louis, but Goff is playing for his career and pride for the rest of the season. The Cards are rested and focussed and in my opinion when taking into account all of the above information, everything does indeed point to the "over" as the correct call in this one! | |||||||
12-01-19 | 49ers v. Ravens -5.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Baltimore Ravens. The 49ers have struggled this year vs. mobile QB's, including in the slim win over the Cardinals earlier in the year. The 49ers defense has been great, but note that San Fran has actually conceded at least 25 points in three of its past four games. Jimmy Garropolo has looked brilliant at times this year, but also very pedestrian in others. The Ravens' defense looked shaky to begin the season, but the unit has quietly been dominating over the last month, making DeShaun Watson, Tom Brady and Jared Goff all look very ordinary. And what more can be said about Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson which hasn't already been said by a million talking heads out there? Jackson continues to put up huge numbers and I think he'll continue that torrid pace in this important home game. Key Trends: - Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a SU win. - 49ers are interestingly just 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The verdict: I think this West Coast team stumbles in this difficult East coast venue; lay the points! | |||||||
12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts | 31-17 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans destroyed the hapless Jaguars 42-20 last week, but I think they'll take a step back here in this difficult road venue vs. a Colts team on the rebound after a 20-17 setback to the Texans last Thursday. With extra time off to prepare, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor today. Indianpolis won 19-17 in Tennessee earlier in the year and note that the Titans are just 1-10 in their last 11 in this building overall. Key Trends: - Tennessee is just 9-13 ATS In its last 22 on the road (including only 2-3 ATS this year.) - The Titans are a poor 3-5 ATS in their last eight after a victory by 14 points or more (including 0-2 ATS this season.) - Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less (including 3-0 ATS this year.) The verdict: Look for the Colts' defense to step up here and take Titans' backup QB Ryan Tannehill down a notch after last week's big performance; lay the short points! | |||||||
12-01-19 | Eagles v. Dolphins +11 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. The Eagles are on the ropes after their 19-7 loss to the Seahawks last weekend. With a chance to finish off their opponents playoff chances, I think the Dolphins use that as motivation today to keep this contest closer than what this spread would suggest. Eagles' QB Carson Wentz doesn't have a lot to work with this season, so his team's offense issues aren't entirely his fault. Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has 1,901 passing yards with ten TD's and ten INT's and I think he'll be able to match Wentz's performance today no problem. If not surpass it. Key Trends: - The Eagles are a terrible 7-11 ATS in their last 18 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including just 1-2 ATS this season.) - The Dolphins are a perfect 2-0 ATS in their last two as a home dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: The Eagles have admittedly gotten more out of this line-up in the last two year's than I could have expected, but I think it finally completely unravels this weekend in Mimai (that said, grab the points!) | |||||||
12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3.5 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think that the Bengals are going to go winless this year. 0-11 Cincinnati has a great opportunity to finally get off the schneid at home though vs. the inconsistent 4-7 Jets. New York comes in off a satisfying 34-3 win over the Raiders. The Bengals lost 16-10 to the Steelers last time out. Andy Dalton finally returns under center for the Bengals and I think he'll be the difference maker here. Key Trends: - The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this year.) - New York is only 7-13 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 2-3 ATS this season.) - The Bengals are still 17-10 ATS in their last 27 as an underdog. The verdict: All good things must come to an end. And in this case, I believe the Bengals' horrible losing streak does in fact end today. That said though, let's grab the points! | |||||||
12-01-19 | Browns -1 v. Steelers | 13-20 | Loss | -119 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Cleveland Browns. It's a big game for these two division rivals, as the winner will continue its quest for a playoff wild card, while the other's season will essentially come to an end (barring a run of a lifetime, combined with many other external factors working in its favor). The Browns beat the Steelers at home two weeks ago and they won last week as well. With a victory today the Browns will have an identical record with Pittsburgh. The Browns' defensive play of late is the difference maker for me, as over the last three games they've allowed 15.7 PPG. And that's bad news for Steelers' rookie QB Devlin Hodges, who I think is being thrown to the wolves in this fierce rivarly. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is interestingly just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 after playing a game on the road (including just 1-2 ATS this year.) - The Browns are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 vs. divisional opponents, including 2-0 ATS this season. The verdict: Cleveland is finally starting to play up to its potential and I look for it to hammer the Steelers here on their home turf; lay the short points! | |||||||
11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys OVER 45 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Bills/Cowboys. This is a big game for both teams. Buffalo has been riding its red hot defensive play all year, as the Bills concede just 288.6 YPG, behind only the 49ers and Patriots. But of late it's been the more confident play of QB Josh Allen which has stuck out to me; Allen now has 2,360 yards passing with 15 TD's and eight INT's. Dallas is coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Patriots and at 6-5, this has essentially become a must win game. The Cowboys clearly can't sit back and hope that Buffalo makes the first mistake. I absolutely think this one sets up as a high-scoring game, rather than a defensive war. Key Trends: - Dallas has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 as a favorite. - The Cowboys have seen the total soar over in interestingly six of their last seven after a loss by six points or less. The verdict: I think Rosen can match pace with Dak Prescott and the home side this afternoon. In what I expect to be a faster-paced game, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! | |||||||
11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* START-UP is on the Lions. Whether it's Jeff Driskel or David Blough under center for Detroit today, I think the home side takes the inconsistent Bears down to the wire (at the very least.) Does Mitchell Trubisky have the advantage at the QB position today over his counterparts? While Chicago did beat Detroit earlier in the year, it's gone 2-5 since, due in large part to an offense which averages just 17.1 PPG. Statistically these defenses are similar in many categories as well. Key Trends: - Chicago is just 1-3 ATS on the road this year. - The Bears are only 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite of seven points or less. - Detroit is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after a loss by six points or less. The verdict: I think home field does matter in this one; grab the points! | |||||||
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams UNDER 47 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the UNDER Ravens/Rams. The Ravens are in the midst of a five-game win streak and they come to the West Coast with an 8-2 record. A prime-time game on the West Coast after such an extended run of stellar play could be viewed by some as a classic "trap" game. The Rams have won three of their last five, most recently holding on for a 17-7 win over the Bears. Clearly the last thing these Rams can do is get into a "shootout" with Lamar Jackson and company. With the home side trying to limit mistakes and control the ball on offense, all signs point to a lower-scoring under in my opinion. Key Trends: - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in interestingly ten of its last 14 after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest. - LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of four at home already this season. The verdict: I expect a hard-fought, lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done! | |||||||
11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* ROUT is on the 49ers. San Fran is 9-1 and Green Bay is 8-2. Green Bay beat the Panthers two weeks ago, but I think it'll struggle here after its bye week. San Francisco's road ahead becomes very difficult, making this a very important home game. Key Trends: - The Packers are a poor 6-13 ATS in their last 19 after a SU win. - The 49ers are 3-0 ATS this year in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3. The verdict: As stated above, I think the time off will in fact hurt the Pack here, while I expect the home side to return to form; lay the points! | |||||||
11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Titans. The Jags come in off a loss to Indianapolis, while the Titans come in off their bye week. Jacksonville welcomed back QB Nick Foles last week, but the offense only put up 13 points. Tennessee on the other hand scored a huge win over the Chiefs before its bye week and it's still now very much back in the playoff hunt with QB Ryan Tannehill under center. Key Trends: - Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS in its last three off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. - Tennessee is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a win by three points or less. The verdict: The Jags are in trouble as they continue to make changes at QB. Tennessee has had a week off to game plan and I expect it to execute; lay the points! | |||||||
11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Bills. I like the Bills to lay the hammer down here. New England has a tough game at home vs. the Cowboys and if it does happen to falter, then Buffalo has a golden opportunity this weekend to make up some ground. Buffalo's schedule ahead is a difficult one as well, so this is a contest in which it simply can't "look ahead" in. Buffalo posted 424 yards of offense vs. the Dolphins last weekend. Denver came close to defeating the Vikings last weekend, but an epic second half collapse has the team still reeling from it on Sunday in my opinion. Rookie Brandon Allen will get the call under center for the Broncos and while he looked decent last week vs. the Vikes, I think he'll struggle in this difficult road venue and vs. this tough Buffalo defense. Key Trends: - The Broncos are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a non-conference game (including 0-2 ATS this season.) - The Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite. The verdict: Buffalo's defense is ranked third in the league and I expect it to play a pivotal role in a lop-sided home destruction; lay the points! | |||||||
11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 37.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Steelers/Bengals OVER. Pittsburgh won five in a row before falling apart in Cleveland last weekend. JuJu Schuster Smith is questionable for this start, but I think Mason Rudolph, who had four INT's vs. the Browns last week, will push the pace and try to put the ugly fight with Myles Garrett behind him. The Steelers are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Bengals are clearly planning for next year and for the draft. That said, the organization doesn't want to go winless either. If ever this team was going to post a victory, I believe it's today. The Bengals have nothing to lose but another game. Last week they fought hard on the road vs. a tough Oakland team and came up short, but I think today's contest sets up as more of a shootout. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after a loss by ten or more points in its previous outing. - Cincinnati has seen the total eclipse the posted number in all three home games this year. - The Bengals have seen the total go over the number in five of their last six as a home dog. The verdict: I look for these teams to comfortably go over this extremely low total; play the over! | |||||||
11-24-19 | Giants v. Bears -6 | 14-19 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Chicago Bears. The Giants are coming out of their bye week and I think they'll struggle to get much production here vs. this hungry home side. Chicago comes in off a loss on the road to the Rams and essentially needs to win this game or its playoff hopes are done. New York QB Daniel Jones has shown some flashes of brilliance, but he's been poor for the most part, posting eight INT's and fumbling it 13 times already. Jones is getting little help in the run game either, as Saquon Barkley has only 402 rushing yards and two TD's in seven games. Yes Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky has taken a step back this year, but he has a big opportunity this weekend to turn things around. While the offense has been more "miss" than "hit" this year, the defense remains a strong point, conceding only 17.4 PPG. Key Trends: - Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record. - The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. - New York is a pathetic 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 30 or more points in its previous outing. The verdict: The turnover prone Jones is in for another rude awakening at chilly Soldier Field this afternoon; lay the points! | |||||||
11-24-19 | Panthers +11 v. Saints | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Carolina Panthers. This is essentially a do or die game for the Panthers as they try to keep pace with the 8-2 Saints. New Orleans comes in off a 34-17 victory over the Bucs. Carolina' QB Kyle Allen had four INT's in a loss to the Falcons last weekend. Allen though will be given the green light here vs. a banged up Saints' secondary which is conceding 250 yards per game through the air. The Saints have a great pass rush and the Panthers have been susceptible in allowing sacks, but Carolina can keep opponents honest with RB Christian McCaffrey. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 2-0 ATS in their last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. - Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog. - New Orleans is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I'm banking on a competitive war until the final moments; grab the points! | |||||||
11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans OVER 44.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -117 | 37 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Colts/Texans. I expect a shootout. The Colts are coming off a convincing win at home over the Jaguars and they have Jacoby Brissett back under center. True RB Marlon Mack is out, but fortunately the Colts still have capable RB's in Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and Jonathan Williams. Indianapolis' defense has been stout of late, but I think the unit will definitely get tested here on the short week and vs. a Texans team which was embarrassed 41-7 last week by Baltimore. Yes Houston hasn't looked the same since losing JJ Watt to injury, but this has essentially become a "must win" for DeShaun Watson and company. The Texans also play with "in season revenge" after falling by 7 in Indy earlier in the campaign. Key Trends: - The Colts have seen the total go over in three of their last four after a home win by ten or more points. - The Texans have seen the total soar over in eight of their last ten vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: Both teams are 6-4. To say this is a crucial matchup would be an understatement. I think the offenses "steal the show" on Thursday night; play the over! | |||||||
11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Chiefs/Chargers. Clearly with Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers under center for these teams, points shouldn't be too hard to come by. But I think the overall situation lends itself to more of a lower-scoring battle on Monday night. First off, this game is being played in Mexico City, which is difficult for players. Neither team's defense has been great, but there are significant O/U trends that support our theory as well. Key Trends: - As note that KC has seen the total dip under the number in three of its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its last game. - LA has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after an extremely close road loss by three points or less. The verdict: Both teams come in off high-scoring losses and each is hungry for a victory here. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "shootout." Play the under! | |||||||
11-17-19 | Bears +6.5 v. Rams | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Bills/Dolphins. Miami has won two in a row and it'll now look to build and to try and give the Bills a second straight loss in a row. For Buffalo, it's blazing start to the season is going to be in the rear view mirror if it can't start putting some production on the board. When these teams met earlier in the year though, it was Buffalo that laid the hammer down in the 31-21 victory and I believe a similar final combined score is on deck here as well. Key Trends: - The Bills have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight after a loss by six points or less. - The Fish have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 12 as a home dog. The verdict: Buffalo's pissed about its last second loss in Cleveland last weekend and knows it has to get out and push the pace here. The Dolphins are riding high after a two-game win streak and Ryan Fitzpatrick and company won't be backing down either. This one could go OVER by half time! Chicago Bears +6 1/2 @ LA Rams 8:20 EST RICKY'S 10* SUNDAY NIGHT ATS 'BLOOD-BATH!' | |||||||
11-17-19 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 40.5 | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Bills/Dolphins. Miami has won two in a row and it'll now look to build and to try and give the Bills a second straight loss in a row. For Buffalo, it's blazing start to the season is going to be in the rear view mirror if it can't start putting some production on the board. When these teams met earlier in the year though, it was Buffalo that laid the hammer down in the 31-21 victory and I believe a similar final combined score is on deck here as well. Key Trends: - The Bills have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight after a loss by six points or less. - The Fish have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 12 as a home dog. The verdict: Buffalo's pissed about its last second loss in Cleveland last weekend and knows it has to get out and push the pace here. The Dolphins are riding high after a two-game win streak and Ryan Fitzpatrick and company won't be backing down either. This one could go OVER by half time! | |||||||
11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes the Browns REALLY need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt. But guess what? The Steelers REALLY need this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt as well. Both "Faker" Mayfield of the Browns and Mason Rudolph of the Steelers have been pretty bad this year, so I'm classifying these pivots as a "wash" today. But Pittsburgh's defense has been tremendous during its four game win streak and I believe it'll be the difference maker tonight as well. Ever since the Steelers acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, the defense has been "lights out" and I expect that trend to continue here. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, including 3-1 ATS this year. - Cleveland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite including only 1-3 ATS this season. The verdict: As stated throughout my analysis, I believe Pittsburgh's defense will step up and win the game here; grab the points! | |||||||
11-11-19 | Seahawks +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Seattle Seahawks. So far everything has gone perfectly for the 49ers, in that almost every bounce and every close call has gone their way during their perfect 8-0 start. But they certainly didn't look like "World beaters" in their 28-25 win over Arizona last weekend. Seattle hasn't been perfect, but it's been damn close this year. And to me, it only appears as if Russell Wilson and company are only getting better. On both sides of the ball. San Francisco is starting to show signs of fatigue and teams appear to be "figuring them out." And now they face Wilson, who has 22 TD's and only one INT. Key Trends: - Seattle is 4-0 ATS in its last four road game vs. teams with winning SU home records. - San Francisco is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including a money-burning 3-3 ATS this season. The verdict: I think the Hawks' veteran experience in this contest could in fact help in posting an outright upset. That said, let's grab the points in what appears to be a very highly competitive matchup! | |||||||
11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Vikes/Boys. I think this is a great "situational spot bet" on the total. These two teams absolutely dominate in stopping the run, so as such I'm fully expecting this to be a "shootout" at the OK Corral on Sunday night! The Vikes enter off a 26-23 loss to Kansas City and they can't afford to take the foot off the gas obviously. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was a bright spot in defeat, going for three TD's and 222 passing yards. The Cowboys are rolling right now though and there's no reason not to think that they can't keep the momentum trending in that direction. In last week's 37-18 win over the Giants, Dallas' QB Dak Prescott had three TD's. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in its last two after two or more straight losses vs. the spread. - Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 12 home games as the favorite. The verdict: With each offense focussed on airing it out, I do indeed expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later! | |||||||
11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* U OF THE U is on the Tennessee Titans. It's do or die essentially for the Titans this week as they look to move back to .500. Titans' backup QB Ryan Tannehill is 2-1 in his three starts with a 99.7 passer rating. Patrick Mahomes could get the start for the Chiefs here. Then again, maybe he won't and backup Matt Moore will get the nod. Moore is 1-1 with a 100.9 passer rating so far in filling in for the injured Mahomes. The uncertainty surrounding the pivot position, whether Mahomes does in fact get the call here, isn't doing the visiting side any favors in my opinion. KC is dealing with significant injuries to its defense as well, with CB Kendall Fuller and DE's Frank Clark and Alex Okafor all listed as questionable. Key Trends: - The Titans are 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. - KC is a poor 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU victory. The verdict: I like Ryan Tannehill at home to give the Chiefs everything they can handle. The public and the books are sleeping on Tannehill and how good he's playing right now; grab the points! | |||||||
11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Oakland Raiders. The Chargers and Raiders are both desperately in need of a victory here. LA has won back-to-back games over the Bears and Packers, while Oakland is coming off a pivotal win over the Lions, keeping them in second place in the division. Oakland's defense and especially its secondary has been suspect this year, but Derek Carr and the offense has been much better than expected. TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs have both been great and I think LA's defense is going to struggle here to contain them. Green Bay's offense looked horrible last week, but it did in Week 1 as well vs. the impotent Bears. I'm not convinced that LA's defensive numbers over the last two games are completely indicative of how the unit will perform moving forward. And on the short week, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side. Key Trends: - LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. - Oakland is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three a home dog of three points or less. The verdict: I think the Raiders' defense does just enough and I look for Carr to continue to progress with the dynamic young pieces around him; play on Oakland! | |||||||
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 48 | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Cowboys/Giants. The Giants are 2-6, but Daniel Jones and the home side won't be rolling over this weekend after falling 31-26 to the Lions in their last game. Dallas destroyed the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7 and they've had their bye week off to prepare for this matchup. Key Trends: - The Giants have allowed 121 points so far this year. - Dallas has seen the total go over in its last two following its bye week. The verdict: In Week 1 the Cowboys crushed New York 35-17. Look for the home side to play with pride and to make Dallas work for this "W." When you take into account all of the above factors, I'm playing the over! | |||||||
11-03-19 | Patriots -3 v. Ravens | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 49 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on the New England Patriots. If Tom Brady can put together a perfect season and then win the Super Bowl, do you think he'd retire? It would be the perfect ending to a legendary career. New England is well on its way to doing that this season and backed by the league's No. 1 defense, which is putting up historic numbers, I think the Patriots come in and take care of business on the national stage. Brady has a solid offensive unit around, but his O-line has been exceptional. The Ravens enter hungry for a victory, but they're off their bye-week, so I expect the home side to be a bit "flat" to open this one. Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson has already struggled vs. some of the elite defenses he's seen and I expect that trend to continue here. Key Trends: - New England is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 after allowing 14 points or less in its last outing. - Baltimore is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten after a win by ten or more points. The verdict: I don't even expect this one to be close at all, as I think Jackson and company stumble against the No. 1 defense in the league; lay the short points! | |||||||
11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Lions/Raiders. Oakland is 3-4 and it's lost two straight. Oakland catches a break here though this weekend facing this "on again, off again" Lions offense. Detroit broke a three-game slide with a 31-26 win over the Giants. The Lions defense has been shaky the last few weeks as well, but the unit also catches a break facing this Raiders' offense which averages just 21 PPG (the Lions average 25.7). Key Trends: - Detroit has seen the total go under in its last two after playing a two-game home stand. - Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 11 when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. The verdict: The conditions, the situation and the trends/numbers are all point to the "under" as the correct call here in my opinion! | |||||||
11-03-19 | Jets -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOILET BOWL is on the New York Jets. Miami only averages 11 PPG, while New York averages 11.1. The Dolphins though have the worst defense in the league, allowing an average of 34 PPG. Miami got out to a decent start vs. the Steelers last weekend, but then it got blown out in the end. Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick committed four fumbles last weekend. Key Trends: - New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games. - Miami is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 after a loss by ten points or more. The verdict: Jets' QB Sam Darnold won AFC player of the week in New York's only victory this year and now facing the leagues worst defensive unit, I believe he'll be the difference maker in the end; lay the short points! | |||||||
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under 49ers/Cards. Arizona enters off a tough loss against the Saints and it's now 3-4. San Francisco is 7-0 and it'll be trying to not get caught looking past the Cards to its big matchup vs. the Seahawks next weekend. Arizona had won three straight until last week's setback. Cards' rookie Kyler Murray though is going to now face the NFC's top defensive unit on a short week and I believe he'll struggle. The 49ers have been blowing teams out this year, but I also think that the short amount of time to prepare will be detrimental to the visitors offense as well. Key Trends: - San Fran has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 after playing a game at home (including in both such instances this year.) - Arizona has seen the total dip under in 19 of its last 30 vs. the conference. The verdict: Look for this divisional battle to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done! | |||||||
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Dolphins are 0-6 and they have nothing to play for. They almost won last week vs. the Bills, but after that setback and once again making a switch at QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick again, I simply can't see the visiting side putting up any sort of fight whatsoever this evening. The Steelers are coming off their bye-week, which couldn't have come at a more opportune time for QB Mason Rudolph, who was dealing with concussion like symptoms. Look for the home side to lean heavily on dynamic RB James Conner again as the offense looks to limit mistakes and control the game. Key Trends: - Miami is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 as a road dog. - Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four MNF games. The verdict: I look for the above scenario to play out this evening; lay the points! | |||||||
10-27-19 | Browns v. Patriots OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Browns/Pats. This is a big game for the Browns. Not so much for the undefeated defending champs. The Patriots love beating up on the Browns whenever they can, but Cleveland is in dire need of a victory and it enters off its bye week. I simply can't see the Browns sitting back and looking for the Pats to make the first mistake. Cleveland has to be aggressive from start to finish in this one if it has any hopes of pulling of an upset. Both teams sport awesome defenses, but the overall situation in my opinion points more to a "shootout," than a "chess match." Key Trends: - The Browns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three after having lost three of their last four games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: Taking into account the situational and trend based factors above, I'm definitely on the over in this one! | |||||||
10-27-19 | Panthers +6 v. 49ers | Top | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is 4-2 and it's coming out of its bye week hungry for a victory and to give the 6-0 49ers their first loss of the season. Carolina has won four straight with rookie pivot Kyle Allen under center. San Francisco has averaged 172 yards per game in the early going and its defense has been tremendous. Carolina averages 27 PPG and it concedes 22. San Fran averages 26 PPG and it allows only ten. Key Trends: - Carolina is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog (including 2-0 ATS this season.) - San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, including a money-burning 2-2 ATS this year. The verdict: Yes the 49ers sport better seasonal averages, but Carolina's early numbers are skewed with Newton having played the first two games. Carolina comes in rested and red hot and while I wouldn't be surprised by an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can! | |||||||
10-27-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG TIGER is on the New York Giants. The Lions "hot start" is firmly in the rear view mirror. At 2-5, the Giants are also looking at another miserable season, but that doesn't mean that they won't be fighting tooth and nail here. New York QB Daniel Jones has something to prove this week. Last weekend Giants' RB Saquon Barkley had 72 yards and a TD. The Lions' though looked terrible in their 42-30 loss to the Vikes this past Sunday. Matt Stafford has been decent for Detroit, but he's not going to have top RB Kerryon Johnson to help him. Key Trends: - New York is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog of 7 points or less. - The Giants are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three off an upset loss as a favorite. - Detroit is a terrible 4-7 ATS in their last 11 off a division game. The verdict: In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab up the points! | |||||||
10-27-19 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bears | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* TOP DOG is on the LA Chargers. The Chargers had three chances to punch it in from the 1 yard line last week to win vs. the Titans, but Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers were unable to get the job done. The Chargers' season literally hangs in the balance in this one after starting 2-5. The Bears have been all over the map from week to week with their consistency, and they enter this one at 3-3. For the most part I'm basing this selection on the starting QB's. Mitchell Trubisky has taken a major step back this year. That's due to a number of different reasons, but regardless I absolutely like Rivers to come in focussed and to deliver the goods. Key Trends: - Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 on the road. - Bears are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following a SU home loss. The verdict: This is a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last; grab the points! | |||||||
10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -125 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
My 8* SMASH-JOB is on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense has been "good enough" this year, but their defense has been exceptional. Overall Buffalo averages only 20.2 PPG, but it concedes just 15.2. Buffalo' QB Josh Allen had two TD's vs. the Dolphins last weekend. The Eagles are down and out in my opinion after their 37-10 loss to the Cowboys. They aren't coming to a friendly place to face a team that's going to "look past" them either. After years of missing the playoffs, the Bills are on a mission this season. Besides, Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has looked horrible this year and he continues to suffer from a poor running game and weak offensive line. Key Trends: - Buffalo has scored 121 points so far this year and it's allowed an AFC low 91 against. - The Eagles are a poor 1-4 ATS this year following an ATS loss. The verdict: I think the home side can smell the blood in the water and I look for it to deliver the knock out blow to Philadelphia's season this weekend; lay the short points! | |||||||
10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Skins/Vikings. Washington isn't going to be playing in the postseason after its terrible start. It's looked better since firing Jay Gruden though, earning a win over the hapless Dolphins, before then going down to the wire in an extremely defensive affair, but eventual loss to the 49ers last weekend. On the short week, I think it'll be the Redskins' defensive unit which is once again the main story line for Washington this week (note that the Skins will be extra motivated defensively as well here facing ex teammate Kirk Cousins.) The Vikes are surging and should have no problem controlling this contest in all facets. And with upcoming tough road games in at KC and Dallas, there's no reason to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish either. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 following a loss. - Minnesota has seen the total dip under in three of its last four after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the under! | |||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the New England Patriots. I don't think the Patriots "look past" the Jets on Monday Night Football. In fact, I think Tom Brady and company are planning something big this evening. As good as Brady is though right now, note that it's been his defense which has gotten the job done this season, allowing only 234.7 YPG total. Key Trends: - The Jets offensive line has conceded 25 sacks so far this year. - The Patriots are avearging four sacks per game. The verdict: New York is a better football team with Sam Darnold under center as evidenced by last week's upset win over the inconsistent Cowboys. However, Darnold faces what is shaping up to be one of the best defenses in the history of the NFL; expect a lop-sided destruction and lay the points with confidence! | |||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is the under Eagles/Cowboys. They say defense wins championships. These teams are both filled with plenty of offensive talent, but it's going to be the one which gets the job done defensively today that wins this one in my opinion. It could not get any bigger for these 3-3 divisional foes. Neither will want to make a mistake here and I expect each to "control" the ball while on offense. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in its last three road games when the total is greater than or equal to 49. - Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in six of its last eight off a non-conference contest. The verdict: This one has defensive, low-scoring battle written all over it; play the under! | |||||||
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3.5 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Chicago Bears. All good things have to come to an end eventually. The Saints are 5-1, but I think they're going to take a step back here in this tough venue. It's difficult to win and cover on the road in the NFL and after last week's 13-6 victory at Jacksonville, I believe the Saints will in fact finally have their letdown here. Chicago had won three straight before a 24-21 loss to the Raiders in London two weeks ago. But with a week off to prepare and focus, I look for the home side to take advantage. Key Trends: - Chicago has one of the best defenses in the league, allowing 83 rushing yards and 229.2 passing yards with 17 sacks and four INT's this year. The verdict: Teddy Bridgewater has filled in admirably for Drew Brees to this point, but after he falters this weekend, look for New Orleans to use the setback as the stage to re-introduce their super start veteran pivot; this one has ATS blowout written all over it! | |||||||
10-20-19 | Texans +1 v. Colts | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Texans. Houston comes in on top form, off back to back big wins and I look for it to steam roll the Colts here, who enter off their bye-week. Houston smoked the Falcons in Week 5 by posting 53 points and then it beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Colts beat the Chiefs as well, but then they went into their bye week. I think that rest is going to least to rust for the 3-2 Colts. Key Trends: - The Texans are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog. - The Colts are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in three out of their last four. The verdict: I like DeShaun Watson to continue his incredible play and for Houston to take advantage of this "flat" Colts side; grab the short points! | |||||||
10-20-19 | Dolphins v. Bills -16.5 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. I think the 4-1 Bills lay the hammer down from start to finish on the 0-5 Dolphins. The Fish have been blown out big time in four of their five games and in my opinion, everything points to another blowout here as well. The Bills are coming out of their bye week and they are expecting RB Devin Singletary to return to the line-up. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 15 points or less in its previous game. - The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four following their bye-week. - The Dolphins are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 on the road. The verdict: Miami is looking to tank every game at this point as it tries to earn the top draft picks; this one has ATS blowout written all over it! | |||||||
10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 44 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Vikes/Lions. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and this is a very important game. In my opinion, this number is much too high. The Vikes average 25 PPG and they concede 15 (ranked sixth.) Detroit averages 24 PPG and it allows 23. Key Trends: - Vikes have seen the total go under the number in all three road games so far this season. - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as an underdog. The verdict: Neither teams wants to make a mistake here. This one has the feeling of a "chess match," rather than a high-scoring shootout; play the under! | |||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is on the under Chiefs/Broncos. Kansas City has dropped back to back home games, suddenly looking poor on both sides of the ball. The defense has been especially atrocious, but the unit catches a break here facing Joe Flacco and the Broncos' run first offense. Flacco has been better of Denver's last two games (both Broncos wins after starting the year 0-3), but it's been the Denver defense which has been the reason for the big turnaround. Mahomes is dealing with an injured ankle right now and he's getting little support from his run game, which is averaging only 87 YPG. KC has to establish the run in the thin air of Denver tonight to alleviate the pressure of Mahomes as well. This one has lower-scoring "under" written all over it in my opinion. Key Trends: - The Chiefs have seen the total dip under the number in six of their last seven after having lost two of their last three games. - The Broncos have seen the total dip under in three of their last four home games as an underdog of three points or less. The verdict: On the short week, I believe the defenses become the main story line in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! | |||||||
10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL MASSACRE is on the under Lions/Packers. Detroit is 2-1-1 and it's been its lights out defensive play which has been the difference for it so far this year. Lions' QB Matt Stafford and the offense has been acceptable, but clearly it's been Detroit's defense which has been the difference maker for the team in the early going. The Lions have already faced some eltie QB's this year, including Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes and they've for the most part shut down all three (including holding Mahomes to no TD's.) Green Bay's offense has been decent as well, but it's been the Packers' defense which has "stolen the show" as well this season. Key Trends: - WR Davantae Adams is out for the Packers. - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: I look for these top rated defenses to take over this one; this number is high, play the under! | |||||||
10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3.5 | 20-7 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* DELIGHT is on the LA Rams. I have been surprised by the 49ers, but I'm still not convinced by Jimmy Garopolo and company. Yes the Rams have suffered a Super Bowl letdown this year and yes they'll be without RB Todd Gurley, but LA's offense still ranks in the top 10 right now. With Jared Goff leading the show at home, I believe a beatdown is in the cards here. San Francisco comes in complacent and flat in my opinion after its great start and on the short week after the MNF victory over the Browns. Key Trends: - San Francisco is still only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. the division. - LA is 3-1 ATS vs. the conference this year. - The Rams are 3-1 ATS as a favorite this season. The verdict: Look for San Fran to finally have a letdown here; lay the short points! | |||||||
10-13-19 | Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* CROWD PLEASER is on the Bengals. The Bengals are 0-5 and their season is over. But the team will still try to win games and build momentum as it looks to re-build and look-ahead to next year. They'll want to play spoiler here for a Ravens team which is 3-2, but which has also shown great inconsistency from week to week so far this year as well. Key Trends: - Cincinnati is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range (including 1-0 ATS this season.) - The Bengals are still 8-5 ATS in their last 13 vs. the division. - The Ravens are a poor 6-10 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game on the road. The verdict: I like this under the radar underdog to push its host to the limit; grab the points! | |||||||
10-13-19 | Texans +5 v. Chiefs | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the Houston Texans. Houston is 3-2 and KC is 4-1. The Chiefs are a "Joe Public" team with Patrick Mahomes under center, but I think that Houston and DeShaun Watson can keep pace down the stretch. The outright isn't out of the question, but this is a contest which I envision being decided late. Don't think Houston can keep pace with the Chiefs high-flying offense? Better think again after the Texans posted the resounding 53-32 win over the Falcons last weekend. The Chiefs on the other hand come in off their first loss of the season, inexplicably falling to the Colts at home. Key Trends: - Houston is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog (including 2-0 this year.) - Kansas City is a terrible 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: I think the stage is set for another outright upset. That said, let's grab up all these points! | |||||||
10-13-19 | Seahawks v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 32-28 | Loss | -101 | 119 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns. For this pick I'm looking at it from an overall situational stand point and in my opinion, this one simply means "more" to the home side. The Browns are off a terrible showing on Monday Night Football vs. the 49ers and they'll be looking to move back to .500 with a small upset at home here. The Hawks on the other hand have to travel across country for an early afternoon non-conference contest, after their thrilling win at home over division rival LA. I'm not convinced that Seattle really does have the "better" team on paper. The Browns issues mostly revolve around themselves shooting themselves in the foot. I expect a much better effort at home from Cleveland and I do indeed feel this also sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Key Trends: - Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two more consecutive victories. - Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after scoring 14 points or less in its previous game. The verdict: I expect Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb to deliver the goods on their home field; grab the point/s! | |||||||
10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars UNDER 44.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Saints/Jags. This is a big contest and I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Teddy Bridgewater has done a great job filling in for Drew Brees, winning three straight, but I think he'll have his hands full here in this difficult road venue. Garnder Minshew has also filled in admirably in a backups role for the Jags, winning two of his first four starts. Key Trends: - The Saints average and concede 23 PPG. - The Jags average 22 points and they allow 23. The verdict: I can't see the home side wanting to turn this one into a "shootout" with the high-flying Saints. Instead, I look for the home side to try and control this one and limit mistakes while on offense. This one has low-scoring "under" written all over it! | |||||||
10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 42.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Giant's Patriots. The Patriots' defense leads the league in almost every statistical category, but New England has yet to face a top tier offensive unit yet. And once again, it won't have to on Thursday night either, as New York comes to town off a listless 28-10 home loss to Minnesota. New York QB Daniel Jones has 760 yards passing with four TD's and three INT's. Jones and company had won two straight previous to that and clearly the rookie will be given the "green light" to try and pull off the upset today. The Giants defense has been decent to this point, but clearly this is a difficult task matching up against Tom Brady in peak form and on his own field. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after scroing 14 points or less in its previous game. - New England has seen the total soar over in interestingly three of its last four off a road blowout win by 21 points or more. The verdict: So far the Pats have seen the O/U go 1-4 this year. The Giants have seen the O/U go 2-3, but with both "overs" occurring on the road. With nothing to lose, I believe the visitors push the pace from start to finish; play the over! | |||||||
10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Browns/49ers Cleveland started off the year with a blowout loss at home to the Titans. The Browns offense was out of sync and it had to play from behind the whole game. They also committed well over 100 yards in penalties. Last week Baker Mayfield and company destroyed the Ravens 40-25 though and now the Browns' offense is starting to fire on all cylinders. RB Nick Chubb had three rushing TD's and Mayfield had over 350 yards passing. The 49ers enter at 3-0 after having last week off. Previous to that they destroyed the Steelers at home. Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Fran offense is also firing on all cylinders. From a situational stand point, I do absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring "shootout." Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog. - San Francisco has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. The verdict: I do expect these two young QB's to push the pace from start to finish. This is a big game for both teams and I'm expecting a classic "shootout" on PRIME TIME! | |||||||
10-06-19 | Colts +12 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a letdown last week, falling at home to the lowly Raiders. Indianapolis and Jacoby Brissett though have been solid and competitive this season, after not many gave them hope after starting QB Andrew Luck retired at the start of the campaign. Clearly Indianapolis got caught “looking ahead” to this difficult matchup. Kansas City is 4-0, but it had to come from behind on the road to beat the Lions 34-30 last weekend. Patrick Mahomes is willing his team to victory, but the Chiefs’ defense has been terrible overall. I think Brissett and the Colts can keep this one competitive down the stretch. Key Trends: - The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. - The Chiefs are interestingly only 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home vs. Indianapolis. The verdict: The Colts upset the Titans 19-17 in Nashville in Week 2, so the team knows how to compete on the road. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! | |||||||
10-06-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-34 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both divisional foes enter at 2-2. The Panthers got an effective outing out of backup QB Kyle Allen in their upset win over the Texans, while Gardner Minshew has led his team to back-to-back victories for the Jags. Minshew though has been impressive and I think he has a significant advantage of his counterpart today. Note that Minshew has seven TD’s and just one INT. The Jags also got a huge game from RB Leonard Fournette, who had 225 yards. Key Trends: - The Jags only allow 99.5 YPG rushing, which doesn’t bode well for Panthers’ RB Christian McCaffery (and in turn, will make this Panthers offense extremely one-dimensional for its rookie QB.) - Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog. The verdict: While the outright win is obviously possible, let’s grab the points! | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Tampa Bay Bucs. This is a big game. For the Bucs more than the Saints in my opinion. Tampa is now 2-2 after it demolished the Rams 55-40 last weekend. Tampa got four turnovers, including three INT’s and it only allowed 28 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Saints team which is down to is second string QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is a game manager, but he lacks the talent of Drew Brees obviously. The Saints only average 102 YPG on the ground, which is ranked 19th. I think the Bucs are going to make New Orleans’ normally versatile offense, very one-dimensional this afternoon. Key Trends: - The Saints are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home home. - The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Jameis Winston and company beat the Saints on the road last year and while I do feel they have a legitimate shot at repeating that feat this weekend as well, I will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can; play on the Bucs! | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans OVER 38.5 | 14-7 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Bills/Titans over. The Bills are 3-1 and the Titans are 2-2. The Bills have been tremendous defensively so far to open the season, but after last week’s tight 16-10 loss at home to the Patriots, I think the visitors finally start to try and open things up on the offensive side of the ball. The Titans come in with plenty of momentum here as they now look to build off their impressive 24-10 road win over the Falcons. The Bills lost QB Josh Allen last week to a concussion, so Matt Barkley will be out their slinging the ball for the visitors today. RB Frank Gore was a bright spot for the Bills last week with 109 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota had 227 yards passing and three TD’s last week and RB Derrick Henry had 100 rushing yards. I believe Tennessee will definitely build off its last impressive offensive performance. Key Trends: - Buffalo has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after a loss by six points or less. - Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after a two game road trip. The verdict: Barkley and the Bills need to make something happen and the Titans are now firing on all cylinders. When you add up all the above information, everything points to the over as the savvy call in my opinion; play the over! | |||||||
10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -107 | 118 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Pats/Skins. Yes New England has the best defense in the league. Statistically speaking anyways. The Patriots haven’t been truly tested by a great offense yet this year though and once again they won’t be this weekend either. That said, the 0-4 Redskins have nothing to lose here and will be given the green light to open up the offense from start to finish. This will of course give ample opportunity for this talented and opportunistic Pats’ defense to score as well. Washington has been poor on both sides of the ball this year, but especially defensively. Note that the Redskins’ defense ranks last in the NFL in third-down conversion prevention. Also note that Washington’s best player Josh Norman is questionable for this one. Key Trends: - NE has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after failing to cover the spread in three out of its last four games. The verdict: Colt McCoy broke his leg on the first play of the National Championship game while he was in College. The Texas alum will be looking to break a leg here as well as he tries to pull of the monumental upset. Tom Brady continues to shine for the Patriots and I expect the veteran to take full advantage of this suspect Skins’ secondary. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it; play the over! | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos UNDER 39 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Jags/Broncos. Both teams have struggled with adversity early, both on and off the field. Denver’s vaunted defense has been terrible so far this season under the defensive minded head coach Vic Fangio, as it’s produced zero sacks and zero forced fumbles over the first three weeks. Clearly this lop-sided trend isn’t going to last forever and I think a big defensive performance is definitely in the cards now vs. the offensively challenged Jaguars. Gardner Minshew picked up a victory for Jacksonville vs. the sputtering Titans last week, but I think the rookie will have his hands full tonight in this difficult road venue. The Broncos offense has been just as bad, which doesn’t bode well facing this stacked Jaguars defense. Key Trends: The Jags have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 on the road. - The Broncos have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 18 as a favorite. The verdict: Expect a tough battle until the end and for this total to stay well below the posted number! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 38 | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the over Vikes/Bears. Two hungry division rivals collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that points are going to be plentiful. Chicago is 2-1 and the Vikes are 1-2. Both division rivals are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and I think it’s that sense of enormous focus and competition which will ultimately help in pushing this total above this very low number. Key Trends: - Minnesota is averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league. - Chicago’s offense finally got untracked last week in the 31-15 road victory in the nation’s capital. The verdict: I think the Bears’ offense continues to progress and I believe the Vikes are going to be forced to match the pace of the home side tonight. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5 | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. This is “situational” play for me. Seattle is the “better” team on paper, but divisional contests are always the most difficult (especially on the road.) The Hawks also have a short week with a Thursday night game vs. the division leading Rams coming up. Seattle also comes in off its first loss of the year, getting hammered at home by a Drew Brees-less Saints team (note that the Hawks two other victories have come against current 0-3 teams.) The Cards are 0-2-1, but their season lies in the balance here. A victory today gets them right back into the mix. Key Trends: - Cards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 after posting less than 250 total yards in their last game. - The Seahawks are interestingly just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven after posting more than 250 passing yards in their previous games. The verdict: I think the home side has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright; that said, let’s grab the points! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 40-25 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Browns/Ravens. Cleveland’s offense has been out of sync all season. Baker Mayfield and company have struggled for the most part this season. That’s not about to get any easier vs. this tough division rival (they split two games last year.) Baltimore is allowing only 20 PPG. The Browns’ though have been getting solid production on the defensive side of the field as well, conceding just 22 PPG. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog. - Baltimore has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 as a favorite. The verdict: The last thing the Browns can do is try to turn this into a “shootout” and expect to hang with the high-flying Ravens. Baltimore faces a stiff defensive task here today though and when you add it all up, I think this one does indeed have “defensive battle” written all over it; play the under! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New York Giants. The Redskins are terrible. That’s mainly due to some key injuries, but I think they’ve already thrown in the towel after starting 0-3. The Giants though are 1-2 after they made a switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones last week vs. the Bucs. Jones looked great by going 23 of 36 for 336 yards and two TD’s, along with four rushes for 28 yards and another pair of TD’s. The Redskins were just manhandled on both sides of the ball by the Bears and I think they’re in for another long afternoon vs. this tough road division rival/venue. Key Trends: - Washington is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five games on field turf. - New York is a solid 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. a club with a losing record. The verdict: I think Jones is a difference maker and I believe the rookie makes the most of this golden opportunity; lay the short points! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Patriots -7 v. Bills | 16-10 | Loss | -100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New England Patriots. The Bills are 3-0. The Patriots are 3-0. I think that’s where the similarities end between the two teams. The Pats rolled to a 30-14 home win over the Jets last time out, while the Bills had to come from behind to knock off the Bengals 21-17. Both teams have been “lights out” defensively early, but New England leads the league by conceding just 199 yards per game. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. - The Bills are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. clubs with winning SU road records. - New England is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Buffalo’s offense is still a work in progress, which doesn’t bode well facing this unbelievable New England defense. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points with confidence! | |||||||
09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Eagles/Packers. So far every Thursday night NFL game has fallen well below the posted number. That includes on Opening Night as well when the Packers played. But I believe that trend finally changes this week, as I believe the desperate 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles will be out to push the pace from start to finish. Yes Green Bay’s defense has been fantastic to this point (allowing just 11.7 PPG thus far) and yes the Eagles have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but I still don’t think that’s going to matter. Philadelphia’s season is on the line tonight and I expect Carson Wentz to open things up early and often. Of course, Green Bay has also looked fantastic on the offensive side of the ball this year and I think it’s balanced attack is going to run roughshod over this suspect Eagles’ defense. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six road game when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. - Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a home victory by ten points or more. The verdict: Green Bay is desperate to move to 4-0 and the Eagles are desperate to avoid a 1-3 hole. This one has “shootout” written all over it! | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens. I think Baltimore is the better all around team. KC has an amazing offense and it has the advantage of playing at home, but I’m unconvinced of the Chiefs’ defense still. Both teams have played sub-par competition so far to get to 2-0, but the Ravens clearly have the offensive fire-power to “hang” with any team in the league. Combined with what I believe to be a superior defensive unit and special teams, I do indeed think we’re getting a gift with the ample points here. Key Trends: - Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. - KC is interestingly just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The verdict: Of course I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can; play on the Ravens! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Falcons/Colts. It’s a big game for both teams, who enter at 1-1. The Colts have looked decent with Jacoby Brissett under center and he’s been leaning heavily on RB Marlon Mack, who already has 225 rushing yards. The Falcons bounced back last week with an impressive 24-20 defensive victory over the Eagles. So far the Falcons ground game has stalled, so we can expect the visitors to be trying to establish that early and often in this one. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting from both of these non-conference sides today as each looks to control the tempo and limit mistakes. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road. - The Falcons have the total dip under the number in 11 of their last 17 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. - Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 16 at home. - The Colts have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 12 following a divisional contest. The verdict: This one has the feel of a “chess match.” Play the under! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders got smoked by the Chiefs at home last week. Oakland hits the road for the first time this year. I think the Raiders get caught looking ahead to the next daunting few weeks, which sees them play only one home game in that span, and that’s when they’re in London, England. Oakland suffered a big blow to its secondary when Johnathan Abram went out in Week 1 vs. Denver. Last week the Raiders’ secondary looked weak against Patrick Mahomes and I think it’ll struggle here too in this difficult road venue. Minnesota looked great in Week 1, but poor in Week 2 at Lambeau. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins and company though in my opinion. Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota’s offense dangerous, as he already has 265 total rushing yards. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. - Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road. The verdict: The Vikes are holding opponents to 7-23 on third downs so far and they’re allowing 108.5 rushing YPG. Minnesota also has six sacks for 50 yards. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders slowing down, or scoring against the Vikings today; lay the points! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the over Jets/Patriots. It’s do or die for the Jets, as an 0-3 start would be the end of their Super Bowl hopes, and likely a shot at the playoffs as well. New England would love nothing more than to put the final nail in the coffin with a big beatdown victory as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, I think this number is much too low. New York will throw caution to the wind obviously as it’s down to its third string QB, so expect Luke Falk to be given the green light to air this one out early and often. This works both ways of course, as the Pats’ defense is extremely adept at putting points on the board as well. Look for Tom Brady and company to put on a clinic as well in front of the home town crowd. Key Trends: - The Jets have seen the total soar over in five of their last six after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in four of their last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. The verdict: I truly feel this one has a legitimate shot at going over the number by half time; play the over! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Miami Dolphins Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. Key Trends: - Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game. - GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over! | |||||||
09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! | |||||||
09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Jets. Cleveland played terribly in Week 1. It’s first drive of the game looked brilliant, but then a penalty cost it a TD and the Browns settled for the FG to open things up. And after that it was all downhill, as several penalties resulted in 187 yards lost. At that point, Baker Mayfield and company were forced to play from behind and the dynamic back threw three picks. I don’t think that the Titans offense is as good as it looked in Week 1 and I don’t think that the Browns defense is as bad as it looked either. What we do know is that the Jets blew a 16 point lead late to the Bills and lost in Week 1. They also lost starting QB Sam Darnold to mono. These are two teams looking to limit mistakes and control the tempo. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing. - New York has seen the total go under in its last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number; play the under! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Titans. The Titans dismantled the Browns in Week 1 and I think they’re going to control this game vs. their division rival at home as well in Week 2. Indianapolis plays its second straight game away from home after losing a heart breaker to the Chargers in OT in LA in Week 1. The Colts put everything they had on the line in that one to try and pull off the upset, but it still wasn’t enough. With that heartbreaker still on the front of their minds, I think the visitors get steamrolled today by this confident Titans side. Key Trends: Yes the Colts offensive line was impressive in Week 1, but Tennessee’s offensive line was also dominant last week. In every single category I’m giving Tennessee the advantage today, especially with Marcus Mariota under center. Finally note that the Titans defeated the Colts twice in 2018 when Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and note that they’ve won 16 of their last 20 games in Nashville overall; lay the points! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Chargers -3 v. Lions | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. LA definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here after nearly losing to the Colts in Week 1, managing the 30-24 OT victory after getting outscored 18-7 in the second half. The Lions though looked even worse by blowing an 18-point lead to the Cardinals and then leaving Arizona with a tie after neither side could score in OT. Key Trends: - LA is 6-1 SU in its last seven vs. the NFC (also 5-2 ATS in those games.) - The Chargers were 7-1 SU on the road last year. - The Lions are only 6-11 in their last 17 as a home underdog. The verdict: Philip Rivers had 333 yards and three TD’s for the Chargers last week and after the way that rookie QB Kyler Murray dismantled the Lions’ defense last week, I think the veteran “has himself a day” here as well; lay the short points! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Giants. Buffalo came from behind to beat the Jets 17-16 on the road last weekend. The Bills final stats looked sharp, but for much of that game Buffalo struggled. New York started decently in Dallas last weekend, but then it also fell apart down the stretch, falling 35-17 once it was all said and done. Buffalo’s defense stepped up big against the Jets, but I have a hard time seeing lightning striking twice for the offensively challenged Bills. Eli Manning and the Giants are essentially in a “must win” scenario early, as second straight loss to open the year will undoubtedly have all of his naysayers calling for his termination immediately. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: The Giants looked poor against the pass with Dak Prescott, but the young secondary catches a break this week facing Josh Allen and the offensively challenged Bills; grab the points! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Cards/Ravens under. After both teams played to high-scoring affairs in Week 1, I’m expecting much more of a defensive battle here. The Cards came from behind to tie the Detroit Lions at home, as neither side was able to score in the OT frame. The Ravens annihilated the Dolphins 59-10. Kyler Murray look poised in last week’s tie for the Cards, finishing with 308 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Clearly Arizona will be out to protect their young QB today after the Ravens hammered the Dolphins last week by posting three sacks (note that Murray was sacked five times by the Lions.) Arizona was just 1-4 in the red zone though and it committed on turnover vs. the Lions. So are the Ravens really that good, or are the Dolphins really that bad? I’m not reading too much into that Week 1 result from either the Fish or Ravens. After Arizona allowed 116 rushing yards to Detroit last week, look for the home side to lean heavily on RB Mark Ingram on Sunday. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last eight after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in its last three home games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The verdict: I expect a much more conservative game plan in Week 2 from each of these non-conference foes, which I believe will help in ultimately sending this one under the number once it’s all said and done! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +17 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. New England roared out to an easy victory over Pittsburgh in its opener and now its set to welcome dynamic receiver Antonio Brown into the mix. The Dolphins were steamrolled 52-10 by the Ravens in their opener and afterwards several players requested trades. Clearly on paper this is a major mismatch, but I expect this in fact to work in our favor here. The Patriots will rest starting players after they have a comfortable lead and the home side WILL NOT be lacking for motivation after getting crushed in Week 1. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side (ATS clearly!) Key Trends: - The Pats are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven played in Miami. - The home side is 14-3 ATS the last 17 in this series. The verdict: I think the Pats take the foot off the gas in the second half and the hungry Fish sneak in comfortably through the back door down the stretch; grab the points! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Dallas managed a 35-17 win in its opener vs. the Giants, while the Redskins are looking to bounce back after they fell 32-27 at Philadelphia. Washington had a 20-7 lead at one point in that one, before then falling apart. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the home side, as an 0-2 hole to start the year, combined with a second straight loss to a divisional foe will clearly be too much for the Skins to overcome. Dallas gave up 151 rushing hards to Saquon Barkley last week, so Washington RB Adrian Peterson will be seeing plenty of action. Key Trends: - Dallas is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a division game. - Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. The verdict: With the season on the line, look for the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire! | |||||||
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -100 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks are 1-0. The Steelers are 0-1. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Steelers, especially after losing to the Patriots in Week 1 and the way in which the Ravens crushed the Fish last weekend. The pressure is on Pittsburgh to step up and deliver in this favorable home situation. The Hawks may have won last week, but it was far from convincing by outlasting Cincinnati 21-20. Key Trends: - Andy Dalton had 415 yards passing and two TD’s for the Bengals vs. the Hawks last weekend. Clearly Big Ben is licking his chops to get a shot at this suspect secondary. The verdict: I think that the Steelers lay it all on the line this weekend and I expect the Hawks to throw in the white flag early; lay the points! | |||||||
09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -104 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Carolina Panthers. Bruce Arians is a good NFL head coach, but the Bucs are a bad team. TB QB Jameis Winston had 194 passing yards last week in his team’s 31-17 home loss to San Francisco, but he also had three INT’s, two of which were returned for a TD. The Bucs looked “OK” defensively, but it’s hard to truly judge facing San Francisco. The Panthers lost 30-27 to the Rams on Sunday, starting slowly and never able to recover. RB Christian McCaffrey had himself a day though, finishing with 128 rushing yards and two TD’s (also led the team with ten receptions.) Key Trends: - Tamp Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing at least 30 points in its previous game. The verdict: The short week always favors the home side and I definitely expect that to be the case on Thursday night. I don’t think Tampa’s offensive issues are going to suddenly fix themselves in such a short time and I do believe that the Panthers will play much better defensively this week. Lay the points with confidence! | |||||||
09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 245 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Every team in the National Football League has “big” expectations heading into a new campaign, and these two clubs are no different. Houston finished with an 11-5 record a year ago, while the Saints lost a heart-breaker to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game under a controversial call. Note though that last year Mark Ingram had the second most rushing yards in the league for the Saints and he’s now gone to Baltimore. I think this effects the offense for the home side early this year. Key Trends: - New Orleans has dropped every season opener since 2014. - The Saints have lost their first home game in each of their last four seasons. The verdict: Both teams have new faces on both sides of the ball, but the situation and numbers point to a competitive battle in my opinion; grab the points! | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers +7 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -137 | 222 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Year after year these two teams are always in the playoffs and making a serious run at the championship. New England more so than Pittsburgh of late. New England made a big acquisition in Antonio Brown on Saturday, but I think that’s going to be more of a distraction. The Super Bowl Champ has done well ATS in its first game back the following year, but I believe that trend finally comes to an end vs. this hungry visiting side. Pittsburgh hates AB and it hates New England. I think the “hungrier, hate filled” side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (and 5-0 ATS its last five as a road dog). - New England is only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab as many points as you can! | |||||||
09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers -6.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -109 | 218 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Chargers. If Andrew Luck was playing in this game, I’d still recommend a play on the Chargers. Granted, Jacoby Brissett is a worthy backup, but he’s being thrust into the spot-light here in short order and I believe he’s going to predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue. LA is without RB Melvin Gordon, but Philip Rivers returns, along with a strong stable of receivers and an improved defense. I think this is going to be a slaughter from start to finish. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is only 10-13 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. - LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: No Luck = no luck. Lay the points, expect more than a River, this one has complete WASHOUT written all over it! | |||||||
09-08-19 | Redskins +10 v. Eagles | 27-32 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Washington Redskins. It’s an important divisional matchup on Sunday. Last year Washington was 5-2 after the first seven games, but then it would finish 7-9. Philadelphia beat Chicago in the Wild Card Round last season, before then falling 20-14 to the Saints int he Divisional Round. Philadelphia is going to be leaning heavily on Carson Wentz to open the year, as it completely overdid its RB roster, bringing in Jordan Howard, before then also grabbing Miles Sanders. The strength of Philadelphia early I think will be its defense. Washington has plenty of question marks, but it has the talent to keep up to the one dimensional home side in my opinion. Key Trends: - Washington is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. - Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I think Washington pulls out every play in the playbook to try and pull of the upset in Week 1. That said, grab the points! | |||||||
09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo benefits from early regional contests, with back-to-back contests vs. state rivals Jets and then the Giants. The Bills have plenty of weapons on the offensive end, including Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. QB Josh Allen looked comfortable in camp and he has two deadly weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley. Le’Veon Bell was New York’s big offseason signing, but the offense is still very one-dimensional in my opinion. Sam Darnold looked great at times last year and pretty pedestrian in others. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-2 SU in its last five games played in New York. - Note that head-to-head the underdog is 7-1 ATS the last eight in this series as well. The verdict: The QB’s are a “wash” in my opinion; grab the points! | |||||||
09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 215 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Falcons/Vikings. It’s a big game for both teams right out of the gate. Minnesota has a 19-11 all time lead in this series, which includes back-to-back victories, including 14-9 win in 2017. Both teams took big steps backwards last year, but each has big expectations heading into this season. While the offense stalled for Minnesota last year, the Vikings return ten starters on the defensive side of the ball to a unit which is once again expected to be one of the bed tin the league. Atlanta was plagued by injury last year. The Falcons’ offense isn’t in question ever with Matt Ryan running the show, but Atlanta’s success in 2019/20 will once again be decided on what its defense is capable of doing. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 on the road. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite. The verdict: I can’t see the Vikes turning this into a “shootout” with Ryan and company, so I believe we’ll see a much more methodical pace from the home side. When you add up all of the above factors I believe that the under is definitely the correct call! | |||||||
09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Green Bay clearly has the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that far behind. Rodgers has a new coach in Matt LaFleur and many new faces on the offensive side of the ball as well. The Packers can’t possibly be any worse on the defensive side of the ball after conceding 28 PPG last year, but the unit will have some chemistry issues as well in my opinion to open things up. And that leaves the door open for Chicago on Opening night. The Bears’ defense was tops in the NFL last year, allowing only 17.7 PPG and the entire unit is back and ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. The verdict: I love Rodgers and I think he’s going to put up big numbers this year. But Also think that Matt Nagy and the Bears have this game circled on their calendar since the end of last season; lay the points! | |||||||
02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 58 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 324 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the “under” in the Super Bowl. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Underrated defensive units. With so much offensive fire-power, it’s easy to forget how well each team played defensively down the stretch in the playoffs. The Pats enter off a 37-31 win over KC, holding Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes to just 16 of 31 and sacking him four times. The Rams were forced by the Saints for 45 points in the first meeting between the clubs, but last week LA looked great defensively in its eventual 26-23 OT victory. Key Trends: - New England has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 17 as a favorite this year. - LA has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four off an upset win as a road dog. The verdict: Look for the two week lay off to benefit the defensive units and play the under in the Super Bowl! | |||||||
01-20-19 | Patriots +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 50 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New England Patriots. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Experience and recent history. So far he Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been “phased” by anything this year. The young gunslinger fired 50 TD strikes this season. The Pats’ beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home and I think an upset is in the makings here as well. The experience that New England brings to the table in this situation, combined with the fact they’ve already proven it can beat the Chiefs are my “key angles” to this contest. Key Trends: - The Patriots are still 16-8 ATS their last 24 on the road. - New England is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. - The Chiefs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a very close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less. The verdict: I’m banking on Tom Brady advancing to another Super Bowl! | |||||||
01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 57.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under Rams/Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Improved defensive play from each team. The Rams beat a dangerous Cowboys team 30-22 last week. I’d argue that the LA defense “stole the show” in that one though. The Saints overcame a 14 point hole in the first quarter to edge past the Eagles last weekend. Drew Brees had 301 yards and two TD’s, but after the slow start, it was the Saints’ defense which “brought that one home” for the home side. The Rams will be committed to the run offensively after posting 273 rushing yards in last week’s win. Known for the high-flying offensive play in the regular season, this one has Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in six of eight on the road already this year. - The Rams have seen the total dip under the number in four of their last five in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 28 or more points (lost in Week 9 to the Saints.) - New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as the favorite this year. - The Saints have seen the total go under in four of five already this year after allowing 14 points or less last game. The verdict: While the first matchup between these clubs flew over, this one has all the makings of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around. Play the under! | |||||||
01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints -7.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Recent history and scheduling. The Saints demolished the Eagles 48-7 in Week 11. The Eagles have been “on fire” since then, but I think they finally run out of gas here, only advancing to the divisional round because of a missed FG. Key Trends: - The Eagles are just 6-7 ATS in their last 12 as a road dog. - Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in its last three “dome” games. - The Saints are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three following their “bye.” The verdict: Expect New Orleans to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points! |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |