Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-20-18 | Jets +3 v. Browns | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the New York Jets: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Browns are 0-19 straight up in their last 19 overall. - The Browns are 1-37 straight up in their last 38 overall. - The Jets are 5-0 in their last five meetings. Verdict: Take NYJ | |||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears OVER 42 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Over: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the mismatch at quarterback is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games in Week 2. - The Over is 13-6 in Bears last 19 games in September. - The Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. Verdict: Take Over | |||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | 17-24 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Seahawks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the mismatch at quarterback is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. - The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in September. - The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Verdict: Take Seattle | |||||||
09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys -145 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cowboys: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2. - The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the NFC East. - The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 2. Verdict: Take Dallas | |||||||
09-16-18 | Patriots -113 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -113 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Patriots: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Jags offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Patriots are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games versus teams with a winning home record. - The Jaguars are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 2. - The Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games. Verdict: Take New England | |||||||
09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins OVER 47.5 | 21-9 | Loss | -116 | 49 h 8 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Over: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Colts offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Over is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games in September. - The Over is 5-1 in Redskins last 6 games in Week 2. - The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Verdict: Take Over | |||||||
09-16-18 | Browns +10 v. Saints | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Browns: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the status of Mark Ingram is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Browns are 2-10 ATS versus teams with a losing record. - The Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. - The Saints are 9-4 ATS versus teams with a losing record. Verdict: Take Cleveland | |||||||
09-16-18 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45 | 29-29 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Under: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the status of Aaron Rodgers is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Under is 10-4 in the Vikings last 14 games in September. - The Under is 18-4 in Vikings last 22 games in Week 2. - The Under is 5-2 in the Packers last 7 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Verdict: Take Under | |||||||
09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Over 43.5: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Bengals offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Over is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 road games versus teams with a winning home record. - The Over is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 versus the AFC North. - The Over is 9-4 in Ravens last 13 games overall. Verdict: Take Over | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Green Bay is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. - The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1. - The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Green Bay. Verdict: Take Green Bay | |||||||
09-09-18 | Cowboys v. Panthers -140 | 8-16 | Win | 100 | 102 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Panthers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Carolina is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Panthers won the last meeting by a score of 33-14. - The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. - The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Verdict: Take Carolina | |||||||
09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals | 24-6 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cardinals: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. - The Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. - The Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The verdict: Take Arizona | |||||||
09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -130 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 2455 h 1 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Broncos: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Denver is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September. - The Broncos are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. - The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. Verdict: Take Denver | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Ravens | 3-47 | Loss | -130 | 98 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bills: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The last four head to head meetings were all decided by less than seven points. - The Bills are 3-1 ATS in their last four versus Baltimore. - The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in September. Verdict: Take Buffalo | |||||||
09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 98 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Giants: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in New York is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. - The Under is 9-3 in Giants last 12 home games. - The Jaguars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games in September. Verdict: Take NYG | |||||||
09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles -117 | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 34 h 36 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Eagles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the line movement for this game is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. - The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. - The Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Verdict: Take Philly | |||||||
02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 266 h 38 m | Show |
Super Bowl experience goes a long way and one could easily say the Patriots may win this game solely on that aspect, but at the same time the inexperience factor may actually help the Eagles to not overthink and to stick with what got them here in the first place. Nick Foles is competent enough at the QB position to not lose this game for the Eagles and therefore I see this playing out as a competitive game across offense, defense and special teams. I don't foresee either team running away with it because the Eagles have a very stout D which should keep them in the game regardless if the offense struggles, meanwhile the Patriots offense has the ability to keep them in the game if their defense struggles. Despite the obvious experience at the head coaching position with Bill Belichick, Eagles HC Doug Pederson is a real up and comer and very sharp in his own right. I expect both coaches to devise excellent game plans and adjust as necessary after half time. The Eagles will likely double Gronk and play man-to-man at every other position. I don't think they will blitz all that much, because D Lineman Cox is essentially a double man rush by himself and as long as the press man-to-man coverage + double team on Gronk it would only leave an open receiver somewhere. The Patriots coaching staff is smart enough to know this Eagles game plan may present itself and therefore I would expect them to practice and game plan against this themselves. Overall, I see this be a very competitive game and likely a field goal win on either side. Philadelphia Eagles +5 | |||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | 7-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Under 39 | |||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch. The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks. The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful. On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them. The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score. Minnesota Vikings -3 | |||||||
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
Between their games vs Bills and Steelers, no one believed in the Jaguars. They were a better team than the Steelers in terms of efficiency and showed up big time at Pittsburgh. Now everyone believes in them again and Jalen Ramsey is already talking about the Super Bowl. It’s fascinating how the perception changes and the Jaguars are a prime example because their variance over the season has been extremely high. We saw a total of 97 points last Sunday but I am expecting a completely different game this time at Foxboro. A low scoring game. The Patriots defense got shredded the first six games, allowing 400+ yards in each of those. Since week 7, they allowed 400+ yards just once, at Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia did a great job adjusting their defense towards playing highly efficient. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in yards per point – they find ways to not lot opponents score. Since the game against the Panthers, they have given up 20+ points just twice in 13 games. Belichick knows how to attack opposing weaknesses and rob strengths. He will stack the box, play a lot of QB contain and will likely show a lot of cover 1 looks with man coverage. He will force Bortles to straight up beat them with his accuracy and I highly doubt that Bortles will be able to do that. He is at his best when playing off play-action behind an efficient run game and the Pats will try their best to shut down the run game. They held Derrick Henry to 2.3 yards per carry last week which made Mariota force a lot of throws. I don’t see the Jaguars offense scoring 20+ in this one, I see more field goals than touchdowns. The most interesting part is the flip side – Pats offense vs Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are at their best when they are lined up vs 3+ WR's. Teams like the Niners or Titans played a lot of 12 / 21 / 22 personnel against the Jaguars and were highly successful. The Patriots will know that. They won’t attack Bouye and Ramsey on the outside. They also don’t have WR's like Martavis Bryant or Antonio Brown who make great adjustments towards the catch point. I expect the Pats to look to run it up the gut and come out in a lot of 12 or 21 personnel with 2 WR's lining up outside and tie up Ramsey and Bouye. Then they are going to use a lot of pre-snap motions to identify coverages and find their matchups in the short passing game via Gronk, Burkhead, Lewis and White. Stretch the field, send Gronk down the seam and pick your matchups. With runs and short passes, the Pats are likely to control / eat the clock which is a huge bonus for a low scoring game. At the end it’s still the Jaguars defense with tremendous front-four pressure against an average offensive line so it’s not that I expect the Pats to score every drive. The Jaguars will make stops. But I also don’t see them going high-pace on offense. I really expect a low scoring affair with the Pats coaching staff dominating the matchup and Blake Bortles. It’s not that I do not see any chance of an upset, because the Jags have been a highly efficient team over the course of the season (equally efficient to the Pats). I think Pats at home should get it done in a low scoring affair. Under 46.5 *Update* Brady's injured finger boasts well for this pick. | |||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings UNDER 47 | 24-29 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Under 47 | |||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I think Vikes are the slightly better overall team with a brutal defense and a good offensive system. Saints D has obviously been regressing quite a bit with those injuries and depth. Bucs and Panthers moved the ball pretty well on them through the air, but the Vikings have a better offense than both of them currently. Vikes got decent OL play, an average rushing attack (has regressed without Cook), but a very efficient passing attack. The X-factor obviously is Case Keenum, but Pat Shumur had two weeks to prepare his team with concepts to attack the Saints. Keenum is always good for an interception and that risk is higher than for Brees, but this offense is so well-designed and Diggs / Thielen are phenomenal pass-catchers who make adjustments to the ball, that Keenums mistakes are rarely punished. The Saints could and likely will sell out way more against the run to make Keenum beat them. Panthers were able to stop the run vs Saints and NO had their worst rushing output this year, but Panthers didn’t have the secondary to compete with the Saints. Vikings can stop the run and have the secondary. They have enough speed on their front seven to contain Kamara in space and their 3rd down / red zone defense is elite. I trust Mike Zimmer that he put together a lot of disguised coverages to rob the Saints of certain strengths on certain plays to make Brees uncomfortable. Vikes have not allowed more than 19 points all season long and that 19 was against the Saints. They won’t be able to shut down that offense, but I think the ceiling for the Saints is around 20 points in this one. Mike Zimmer with the Vikes is 30-4 SU and 31-2-1 ATS when his team scores 21+ points. Minny have one of the greatest home fields in the league, it’s gonna be very loud which might cause some flags. The Vikes have the defense to slow down a good offense and they have the offense to put up points. I lean the home side here at something like a 24-20 / 27-21 or even 28-17 game. Minnesota Vikings -4 | |||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
What’s going on with the Jaguars offense? Not that they ever were a unit to be afraid of with Blake Bottles at QB, but they had a very decent stretch where his weaknesses have been masked. During the last couple games, they showed complete regression, even worse than everything I could have expected. This is a top-5 offense vs the No. 1 defense so this matchup should be exciting. The Steelers will show the same gameplan on defense than the Bills: completely sell out vs the run and make Bortles beat them. From weeks 1-12, PIT D ranked 4th in yards per drive. Without Ryan Shazier who left early game 13, the Steelers rank just 29th and played offenses like BAL, CLE, HOU, (NE), CIN. That’s a huge loss and should actually do the Jags a favor. The Steelers had big issues in the first Jaguars game with poor play-calling. Overall, Haley looked lost a lot of times during the year that made the Steelers offense inefficient. The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so the battle in the trenches is gonna be highly interesting. The Jaguars should still find ways to force a lot of three and outs, because their personnel allows them to attack opponents in various ways. This game is going to be cold (°17 F) and likely ugly because both offenses want to avoid the opposing passing defense. If the Jaguars plays on an average level, I really like the touchdown + hook spread. Hackett might try a few long bombs (also off PA) at the very beginning to test the Steelers defense and keep them honest. Jaguars might be able to keep it close with their defense and they could have a decent shot if they can exploit the Shazier-less defense. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | |||||||
01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
Pats at home in the divisional round is usually a no-brainer: since their last loss vs the Jets in 2011, they went 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in that round. But this game is interesting because we don’t know which offense is gonna show up from Tennessee, Mularkey's or Mariota's. There were rumours that Mariota started calling the plays by his own since the 2nd quarter at Kansas City. The No-huddle up-tempo offense from shotgun is perfectly suited for Mariota, but Mularkey desperately wants to rely on his ground-and-pound approach. He wants to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down with DeMarco Murray and let Mariota make a precise pass on 3rd down from a tight formation. It’s not a surprise that Mariota has four game-winning drives this season because on game-winning drives he is put into an up-tempo offense from shotgun and can dictate the offense by himself. He is a very good pocket passer and showed that at Kansas City in “his” offense. I also believe that Derrick Henry is a better and more efficient runner than DeMarco Murray. The Mariota-offense is definitely capable of putting up points at New England, the Mularkey offense will be out coached from start to finish. New England has a highly efficient defense by yards per point – they somehow avoid being scored on. The Patriots’ front seven isn’t great and they are lacking speed. I think the Titans’ offensive line has a very solid matchup and a few Mariota runs could absolutely take care for some damage and first downs.The Chiefs offense showed a great gameplan in the first half against the Titans as they tried to avoid that good run defense (4th in YPC, 7th in DVOA) and moved the ball through the air. KC receivers had a few costly drops, otherwise they would have scored a TD more. The Patriots are going to do the same: pass the ball, avoid the opponent’s strength. They will pick their matchups and the zone blitz scheme by Dick LeBeau is generally something Tom Brady highly prefers to play against. I don’t think the Pats will have any troubles moving the ball through the air because there isn’t anything the Titans can throw at Brady IMO. If the Titans play Mariota-ball, they can be competitive in that game, but if they wake up too late, it could be over too soon. Patriots also don’t want to be the Chiefs all over again and they know that it’s hard to run the clock down vs the Titans so I expect them to look to score early and often. I think this game could end up in the 50's, because the Pats are capable to score 30+ and the Titans have a solid matchup as soon as they play Mariota ball and they should get garbage time opportunities in no-huddle mode if they lose in the fourth quarter. Over 47 | |||||||
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
The Falcons defense has been the key as they played the run pretty aggressively and played tight against those Rams WR's. A couple of special teams turnovers helped for field position. I am expecting a close game at Philly in the divisional round. The Eagles obviously aren’t the same without Carson Wentz. Wentz is able to avoid 2-3 sacks/throwaways per game because of his crazy ability of scrambling away from pressure. I don’t think that offense is lost, but Foles is a downgrade from Wentz. With the way the Falcons are playing on defense right now, it’s tough for me to see the Eagles moving the ball efficiently. They must try to take pressure off Foles. They have to try to not win the game with him, but the rest has to work to let Foles deal with the last 20%. I trust Doug Pederson to put together a competitive offensive gameplan, but with Nick Foles, he will be somehow limited. On offense, Atlanta will have a big advantage against the Eagles secondary because their cornerbacks are the weak spot and Julio Jones should feast on them. Eagles have a stout defense with a great defensive line and they rank 7th in pass DVOA / 3rd in run DVOA, so we shouldn’t expect the Falcons to move the ball easily on the ground to grind it out like at Los Angeles. All season, the Falcons had their issues in key situations like red zone, as they only convert 50% of their trips into touchdowns for rank 23rd. I think both teams will struggle to score many points. If the Eagles play tough on defense, get the home crowd going and take pressure off of Foles by getting their running game going, they will be in a very good position to succeed, however the value lies on the total. Under 41.5 | |||||||
01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
Some people say it’s tough to beat a team three times a year. That situation occurred six times and the teams who won both previous matchups went 4-2. The Saints have dominated the Panthers twice this year for obvious reasons: they are much better in the single most important category: passing efficiency. Saints are 2nd in QBPR diff, Panthers are a horrendous 24th. The Panthers are an 8.5ish win team by Pythagorean. During their last six games they went 4-2, but in 3 of those 4 losses they were out gained in passing efficiency. They caught the Vikes in their 3rd straight road game and should have lost vs NYJ & TB. This matchup has the biggest discrepancy on my board. The Panthers will most likely get RG Trai Turner back which is huge for the offense, but they don’t have a decent passing attack. Over the second half of the season they have been leaning on the run game (Newton leads his team in rushing yards) and Christian McCaffrey in the short passing game. I don’t see how they stay within 7 in this matchup. Devin Funchess has emerged as their best WR, but he will be locked down by Marshon Lattimore. With Byrd going to IR, Newton doesn’t have options to throw to. The Saints can focus on Newton & Christian McCaffrey to force throws to Olsen or any WR. While the Panthers defense is decent, they seem not to figure out a plan to stop this Saints offense. To be competitive in this game they have to stop the Saints, but it’s a lot to ask for because that offense is so diverse: dominant run game, one of the most explosive RB in the passing game, Tedd Ginn to stretch the field and Michael Thomas who catches everything. It’s really tough to contain that offense who have scored 19+ every time this year. The Panthers need to create key turnovers and key stops to stay in this game, but I highly doubt it. Sean Payton will have his offense ready in the dome. As soon as the Panthers are behind they get forced to throw more often and that’s where Cam Newton will be limited with that kind of supporting cast he has. An efficient run game isn’t enough in the playoff. Saints should control the passing game on both sides of the ball and come up with a win of more than a touchdown here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | |||||||
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 5 m | Show |
The Jaguars were as a surprising team as the Rams. The defense has been playing historically well, especially their pass defense. Their run defense started as the worst early in the season, but got a significant boost when they traded for Marcell Dareus. Their pass defense is amazing – brutal front-four pressure combined with good coverage on the back end by Ramsey & Bouye and a linebacking corp that can cover a lot of ground. This is a textbook pass defense. Their offense is build to pound Fournette with a solid offensive line that had some injury issues during the season but is back healthy now. The pass offense has shown some flashes here and there with great route combinations, Allen Hurns and those speedy undrafted WR's. The Jaguars had some heavy regression the last two weeks (on the road though!) on either side of the ball, getting shredded by Jimmy and Shanahan and throwing lots of picks because they were forced the throw. The Jags want to play with a lead to make the life for Bortles as easy as possible. Fortunately, they can make his life very easy this week because they play against the Bills. The Bills don’t belong into the playoffs, period. They are a truly a 6-10 team. They have the highest difference in the league between pythagorean wins and actual wins. Obviously the one Peterman half was awful, but their D got shredded that game and Taylor took care of not losing so high. During the first half of the season they created a lot of key turnovers which led to wins over bad teams (Raiders, Bucs, Broncos) and they have that one underrated QB who consistently makes the best out of that bad offense. For raw stats guys: Taylor has 14 TD & 4 INT on the year. Sean McDermott lets his defense play very reactive with a zone-heavy scheme. That works well against not-so-good offenses, but they got killed by NO, LAC, NE (2x). Also the Bucs and Jets (2nd game) had a good one against that defense. Even though they are solid against the pass, they cannot defend the run to save their lives. This is a terrible matchup for them against a Jaguars offense that has a run-first approach, has a healthy offensive line and has Fournette back after sitting out a few games. Here is the game script: The Bills defense will struggle against the Jags’ run offense and as the game goes on, they will have to stack the box to not let the Jags run away with the lead and the clock. The Jaguars will jump a lead via defense, field position and their run game. As underrated as Taylor is, he cannot carry that offense against good defenses, because he doesn’t have any decent WR's (Kelvin Benjamin isn’t one), has a bad pass protection and the run game is bad because McCoy gets older, the offensive line is decimated and they don’t have an efficient Mike Gillislee in the rotation. The Jaguars can play the box with a high emphasis, because the Bills’ passing game will be non-efficient. It’s a complete mismatch for them. WR's and TE's will be locked down, McCoy is banged up and the Jaguars can even put a spy on Taylor because they don’t have to shade coverage to known QB-WR connections. I expect the Jaguars to completely shut down the Bills on offense and use short fields and Fournette to score a couple times in the first half and make Bortles comfortable and put him into some read-option and play action kind of plays that could lead to big gains. Jaguars are a top-5 playoff team by efficiency metrics and even Bortles cannot punish them this time. They are at home, first playoff game in years and they have the superior matchup against a team that should rather be 6-10 than 9-7. JAX have dominated bad teams this season and I expect them to do the same against the Bills. Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to a shutout. Jacksonville Jaguars -8 | |||||||
01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -6 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
The turnaround of the Los Angeles Rams has been fascinating. The offensive line is not elite, but they are good enough to execute Sean McVay's offense. McVay has made Todd Gurley the focus point of his offense (2100 scrimmage yards, 4.7 YPC, 60+ rec, 12.3 YPR, 19 total TD's) and has installed a scheme in which WR1 Sammy Watkins takes away the opponent’s best CB with coverage shades and allows guys like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley to thrive by attacking certain coverage schemes with route combinations that are also relatively easy to read for Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t turned into an elite QB, but much more towards an average QB who executes a great scheme with great personnel (see Case Keenum in Minnesota). The most underrated aspect of McVay's work is that he understood that Tavon Austin is a bad WR with bad hands. Austin went from 107 targets & 44 punt returns in 2016 to 10 and 17 in 2017. McVay uses Pharoh Cooper as a punt returner and Austin as a runner (55 carries / 4.5 YPC) and more importantly as a threat to the run on end arounds. As soon as Austin fakes an end around, the opposing defense has to account for it, which opens up a little bit more space for runs and play-fakes. He took away every responsibility of Austin to catch passes. This offense is tough to defend for any defense. As a defense you need to provide Jared Goff with brutal front-four pressure and your front seven needs to be good against the run and quick in space. The Seahawks in week 5, the Redskins (highest pressure rate in the league; were healthy in week 2), the Vikings and the Jaguars were able to play like that and they had quite that success, turning into four losses for the Rams. The defense started very slow this year, adjusting to DC Wade Philips’ 3-4 formation and with Aaron Donald not practicing with the team until week 2, but they have been improving throughout the year I don’t think the Falcons are a true playoff team. They have a lot of close wins, could have / should have lost vs Bears, Hawks, Saints first game, Lions. They are the only team in the NFL this year that got a win when throwing 3 picks, and even better, they won two of them. Matt Ryan is having a crazy regression year, the offensive line isn’t as good as last year, other WR's other than Julio are regressing because they aren’t schemed open as they were under Shanny. The defense plays highly conservatively, trying to keep the offense in front of them. Each unit has some quality pieces, but as a whole they don’t really play highly efficient. Their defense has a bad matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Rams offensive line is going to win in the trenches and dictate the matchup for the better part of the game, which is very important for Jared Goff. McVay can make Gurley his focus point to get the defense account for him. This will open up the whole playbook and I expect the Rams to show us their arsenal. If the Falcons need to play Gurley, it will open up space and matchups for the TE's and WR's if Sammy Watkins draws coverage from Desmond Trufant. I expect the Rams to attack that defense on all levels of the field and move the ball downfield. If they don’t screw up red zone opportunities, it should be an easy day for the offense. The Falcons should make their priority attacking the ground game, but that can only work in a low scoring affair in which Atlanta controls the clock. Because I expect the Rams to score a lot, the Falcons might be forced to throw the ball too early. However, I expect Wade Philips and a well-rested top-5 Rams defense to come up with a good game plan to contain a Falcons offense that has been struggling in key situations throughout the season. Aaron Donald is going to line up against the Falcons guards who are absolutely the weak spots on that offensive line and he is going to wreck havoc. Rams have a superior offensive matchup and should have enough defensive quality and brain to match up well here. Rams roll, expecting something like a 34-21 kind of game. Los Angeles Rams -6 | |||||||
12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show | |
The Falcons got short in the first matchup. They outgained the Panthers in significant key metrics, but just came up short. They were up 10-0, but guided the Panthers the way with costly turnovers that led to short fields. The Panthers were outplayed in the passing game by the Jets, Vikings, Saints and Bucs but got punished only once. I usually like to bet teams in rematches who should have won the first time because it tells you they have a decent matchup and correct some of their mistakes in the rematch. Another point is that the Panthers can still play for the 2nd seed, but the Vikings play in the early slate. So if the Vikings win, the Panthers would need Saints or Rams to lose to jump a seed. I don’t know if they are going to bring all the intensity and don’t pull out starters late if they know they cannot get a bye. With a huge lack at WR now, the Falcons have a solid matchup with their corners, and should be able to focus on Newton & CMC runs. Falcons at home should win by a TD. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 | |||||||
12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
Seahawks found life last week and I don’t see them dropping this one. They are the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs right now. Seattle has had major injuries mid-way through the season and struggled mightily because of it, but similar to the Patriots early in the season, very good coaching is able to find ways to mask those injuries after a couple of games - as long as they have a well implemented system in place. The Seahawks still have the 2nd best defense heading into the NFC postseason in my opinion. No reason to wait for the possibility of them getting in to make some money off them, as they should be able to slaughter Arizona here. The Cardinals will have a very hard time scoring in this matchup. Seattle rolls. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | |||||||
12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins are a completely different animal at home where they are 4-2 SU (without London) and 5-1 ATS, beating opponents by 5 PPG. At home, they rank top-15 or even better in yards per pass diff and QBPR diff, just for instance. Adam Gase publicly called out his players, saying they are playing for their jobs the last two weeks. He also publicly said that he let owner Stephen Ross down. The reason is that they signed retired Jay Cutler to play QB, but that’s a different story. The Fins have a shot to play for their jobs and bring Stephen Ross a little smile by spoiling the Bills’ playoff hopes. Buffalo is also a different animal on the road where they are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, losing by a whopping 8.9 PPG. I think the Dolphins will get it done, but I'll take the field goal insurance. Miami Dolphins +3 | |||||||
12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
Saints are the toughest matchup the Bucs have faced in weeks and the Saints are playing for home field advantage in the wild card round. Bucs are without OJ Howard, refuse to involve Cameron Brate somehow and are likely without Desean Jackson again. That leaves Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore and the latter dominated that matchup in the first game so much so that Evans got ejected for throwing a punch. Saints should roll here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | |||||||
12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 60 m | Show |
Cousins is playing for a new contract and Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note after all the injuries. Giants went from a true playoff contender to a 2-13 team. However, the Giants come off a shutout loss on the road to play their last home game in front of their home fans. Will they show up? What happens to Eli Manning? Is it his last game and the team gets motivated to play for him? The Redskins defense is day and night in home/road. They give up the fewest yards per pass at home but the 3rd highest yards per pass on the road. Allowing the 2nd lowest QBPR at home, the 9th-highest on the road. I think there is a chance the Giants win straight up, but with more than a field goal insurance this is the safer play. New York Giants +3.5 | |||||||
12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +10 | 34-6 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Houston Texans +10 | |||||||
12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 54 m | Show |
Zeke is back. The Cowboys offense will be back. The Seahawks defense won’t be back. Not only is the Hawks defense playing like a bottom-10 unit right now with all the injuries, they also seem to have some locker room issues and some clueless coaches. Earl Thomas publicly called out Bobby Wagner for playing limited through injury and Wagner responded harsh on Twitter. Pete Carroll didn’t have an excuse or explanation for not pulling Wilson out of the game. He looked clueless. It looks like he doesn’t have the fire right now and is a little bit disengaged. Now they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team that just got its sh*t together with Sean Lee back and is licking its chops with Zeke coming back. Zeke completely alters the offense and I think the Cowboys have a superior matchup for the Seahawks this week. Wagner needed to leave the game last week after not being able to run sideline to sideline so I can’t expect him to be ready to go this week. Bobby Wagner injured or not playing is a terrible loss, especially against a diverse offense as the Cowboys will be with Zeke back. The Hawks defense won’t be able to close out the space and they don’t have the corners to cover Dez Bryant in the red zone. The Boys will play away from Earl Thomas and try to exploit all the matchups in the short passing game and Dez in isolation. Seahawks won’t have any answers for that offense and I doubt they can play catch-up with that offensive line (DAL defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate) and without a running game. Wilson had one magic game and that’s about it. The Boys offense can impose its will and kill the clock in the second half to avoid any kind of Wilson magic. Seeing some kind of Boys win in the range of 31-17. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 | |||||||
12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Jimmy Garoppolo this, Jimmy Garoppolo that. All I am hearing about the Niners is how Jimmy G is the savior of the Niners. Let’s sum up the last three weeks: Niners played the Bears, Texans and Titans. The best defense of the bunch is Chicago and that isn't saying much. The Niners barely won and scored five field goals for 15 points. The other two games were against the 18th and 22nd ranked defenses. Neither of these defenses were able to exploit the Niners’ weaknesses – their OL and WRs. Also neither of these offenses was able to score enough. Thanks Tennessee HC Mike Mularkey, the Niners had a chance to beat the Titans on Sunday. Kudos to Jimmy & Kyle Shanahan – they did a great job winning all three games and making the Niners offense look alive again. What you don’t see in the stats is Garoppolos passion for throwing passes straight to defenders. There were like 8 passes that could have been intercepted over the last two weeks but defenders just didn’t make a play – regression incoming. This week there is a completely different animal coming to town. The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking like the most complete AFC team right now. The defense has been playing in its own league and is putting up better passing efficiency than the 2013 Seahawks. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Niners have +1.0 net yards per play which ranks 6th. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Jaguars have +1.7 net yards per play which ranks 2nd. It took me a few weeks to get away from the “As long as Blake Bortles is the QB, that team is going nowhere” thinking. That offense looks as solid as it gets and they are very well coached. Last Sunday they were without their three best WR's and best RB and they steamrolled the Texans. OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing an awesome job, making Blake Bortles look comfortable. Over the course of the season, this offense ranks exactly average. Since week 7, Bortles has 12 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's and 3 INT's. The most surprising aspect is how the offensive line has been performing. They rank 5th in adjusted sack rate, Bortles has a of time in the pocket. You already saw that in week 1 against a healthy Texans defense, Bortles was able to drink a beer in the pocket. During the season, Brandon Linder, Jeremy Parnell and Patrick Omameh all got injured and were missing time at some point. Now they are back in full strength and provide Bortles with a lot of clean pockets throwing to speedy WR's like Westbrook, Cole and Mickens running crossing patterns on great route combinations across the field. On these patterns, Bortles rarely has to throw with anticipation, he just needs his WR's to clear zones or run a yard away from their defenders to hit them in stride. He also has been throwing a few dots over the last few games. With the offense moving towards an average unit and Bortles looking good in a great system, this team is getting very scary, because they will get Fournette and Allen Robinson back at some point. The 49ers are no matchup for the Jaguars. We can argue the cross-country trip, but the Jaguars were resting starters in the fourth quarter last week and still play for a first round bye since the Steelers lost Antonio Brown and Ben is a bit limping. Jags hold the tiebreaker over PIT. As much as Shanahan will try to scheme guys open and put Garoppolo into a lot of quick release passes, it won’t be enough to move the ball on an historically great defense. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive and the Jaguars don’t need to respect the run or the pass either way. Sacksonville will be ready to roll throughout that game. On offense, the Jaguars will do enough again against the No. 29 ranked defense in weighed DVOA. This is men vs boys, Jaguars take this one home by 10+. | |||||||
12-24-17 | Lions -5 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -104 | 111 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Detroit Lions -5 | |||||||
12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots -11.5 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 111 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -11.5 | |||||||
12-24-17 | Browns +6.5 v. Bears | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Cleveland Browns +6.5 | |||||||
12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||
12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 112 h 31 m | Show |
I am regretting taking the Falcons on MNF. I really thought they are good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that is without several defensive key players comfortably, but they once again showed that they don’t have it this year. They were even out gained on a per-play base, by the Bucs! The Saints committed an unusual 3 turnovers against the Jets last Sunday (two in the red zone) and got a touchdown called back, but they out gained them pretty comfortably. Two weeks ago we took the Saints at Atlanta and we got victimized by a variance game. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara early on which completely altered their game and the Falcons survived with the help of the refs after throwing 3 INT's. The Saints out gained them by 0.6 yards per play. I have no doubt that they would have won the game without the injuries. They wanted to win the game at the end and threw a game-deciding pick instead of going to overtime. This time the Saints will nearly be in full strength, with a full week to prepare, in their personal early Super Bowl. There is such a big discrepancy in efficiency for the Falcons, I don’t see how they overcome that another time to keep this one close. They aren’t a playoff team in terms of efficiency. Atlanta is still bad against passes to RB and that’s where the Saints are going to hammer them all game long as they were supposed to do two weeks ago. On the very first drive, Kamara caught two passes for 29 yards before getting shredded to a concussion. Expect the full Kamara dose this week in a game that shouldn’t bounce the Falcons’ way as it did two weeks ago. New Orleans Saints -5.5 | |||||||
12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 29 m | Show |
This one looks like a no-brainer, but I believe it is just one. There are light years between these two teams: offense, defense, special teams, coaching. Sean McVay is an awesome coach and already miles ahead of Mike Mularkey. The Rams already played two early east coast games this year and came out as winners. McVay will have his team ready to compete, so I am not expecting a letdown spot by any means. The only key for the Titans is playing Mularkey ball with Derrick Henry vs a questionable run D, but just as long as the Rams don’t pull away on the scoreboard. Mularkey still loves using Murray as his primary back even though Henry runs much more efficient. Against a bad Titans pass defense, I truly expect the Rams to pull away on the scoreboard via the pass and avoid a lot of runs against a good run D (McVay is smart) and then it doesn’t help the Titans to face a top-5 pass D with Wade Philips coaching vs. Mike Mularkey & Torry Robiskie. It also doesn’t help that Mariota is seriously injured and is considering ankle surgery in the off-season. The Titans have played a bottom-3 schedule on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency and they played the easiest W/L-schedule. They have been trending downwards since week 3 and are only still in the playoffs because they barely beat teams like Browns, Colts and Texans without Watson. They played against two top-10 offenses, Steelers and Texans with Watson, and they conceded 40 and 50 defensive points. I expect Mularkey to lose the coaching battle easily and the Rams to put up 30+ points here to make another statement into the direction of the 3rd seed. Los Angeles Rams -6.5 | |||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 49 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 49 | |||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
A lot of injuries on the Atlanta defensive side (Gerald McCoy, Lavante David, +many others), combined with a true must win for Atlanta considering they have two tough games remaining (NO and CAR) and need to win two of the remaining three to make the playoffs. Despite the Falcons not looking like a Super Bowl contender this season, they are coming off 10 days rest I expect them to come out firing tonight. People are jumping on the touchdown dogs at home, but the real value 'aka the Sharp Side' lies in the visiting team. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 | |||||||
12-17-17 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -2.5 | |||||||
12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* Russell Wilson’s performance against the Eagles was a fluke. His mechanics are still bad, maybe he is secretly injured. He needs a whole lot of strength to loft balls deep instead of flipping it as he did his entire career. Turns out into bad accuracy with high variation. This time is the Rams’ best chance to beat the Seahawks as their defense is falling apart. No Chancellor, Sherman, Avril and now they lost Wagner and Wright last Sunday. Wagner was already banged up and this week he is going to be a game time decision but I highly doubt he is going to play. Wagner is the play-caller and probably the best LB in the league this year. Anticipation against run & play-action and zone discipline take a huge hit without him and that’s really bad against the Rams as Sean McVays offense is based on heavy play fakes to open up receivers in space and attack soft spots in certain zone concepts. With a thin defensive line, it’s gonna be real tough to generate consistent stops against the Rams that way. You can expect the Seahawks defense to offer certain space to Gurley & TEs underneath and without Sherman they don’t have the corners to match up with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods who is likely returning this week. I expect the Rams to be able to score in the 20's this week and be very well prepared in a revenge game. The first time these two met in week 5, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 375 – 241 total yards and by an astonishing 1.6 yards per play. The key difference was that the Seahawks defense was healthy that time and held the Rams to 0/4 in the red zone. One red zone attempt was completely fluky because Gurley scored a touchdown and dropped the ball away for a touchdown. They also had a missed FG. So a score of 17-16 Rams would have mirrored the 60 minutes much better than 10-16. The Rams defense with getting Trumaine Johnson back should have enough power to overwhelm the Seahawks and they always had their number during the last couple seasons. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (play down to -2.5 if necessary) | |||||||
12-17-17 | Ravens -7 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
*Fave of the Week* The Cleveland Browns spend the practice weeks inventing new ways to blow covers. They had their personal Super Bowl last week, their best chance to win a game. They were up 21-7 and managed to lose 21-27 despite outgaining the Packers by 1.5 yards per play. Now they get to play a Ravens team desperate for a win off a close prime time loss vs their rivals. Big Ben & Antonio Brown had a good matchup against Baltimore last week in their first game without Jimmy Smith. And it looks like they went off on the Ravens D, but the score looks much worse than it actually was. They had so many yards and points because they ran 85 plays with 66 passes. These high-paced games are rare and occur a handful of times per season. Defenses get worn out in the fourth quarter – same here as the Ravens gave up 19 points then. The Steelers did nothing really special from an efficiency standpoint, they just chased the game in a successful way through the best WR in the league. That’s an achievement without a doubt, but it shouldn’t let the Ravens defense look awful. The Browns don’t have a Ben-Brown matchup to exploit the Ravens’ secondary, even though Josh Gordon is a great addition to that offense. I am expecting the same kind of game we saw in the first matchup with the Ravens defense shutting down the Browns and the offense doing just enough to make the effort of the defense and special teams count. Ravens by 10+. Baltimore Ravens -7 | |||||||
12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -11.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Minnesota Vikings -11.5 | |||||||
12-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Green Bay Packers +3 | |||||||
12-17-17 | Jets v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
*Top Total of the Week* The Jets are probably the worst road team in 2017. They are 1-5 SU away from home, getting outscored 14.5 – 24.8. Their lone win was at Cleveland in a game the Browns out gained them by around 200 yards and committed three turnovers inside the 5. Last week at Denver they were shut 0-23. And now with Josh McCown landing on the IR, the Jets will start Bryce Petty at QB this week – let me tell you this as a Jets fan: he is awful. Small sample size, but over 142 career passes he has a completion percentage of 54%, 3 TD, 7 INT and 5.8 YPA. The Jets aren’t going to move the ball at New Orleans, because the Saints won’t respect the pass and can stack the box heavily with Lattimore locking down Anderson or Kearse. The Saints’ offensive philosophy is to get a lead and sit on it by running down the clock and rest the arm of Drew Brees. As they are already preparing for the Falcons game next week which seems to be their personal Super Bowl, they won’t be interested in running up the score against the Jets. They will jump a lead and hand it off to Kamara/Ingram in the second half. Sustain drives as much as possible, keep a slow pace to keep offense and defense as fresh as possible. If you ask Sean Payton, he would sign a 10-7 win without injuries right now. I am seeing this game being played out similar to the Bucs/Saints game when the Bucs weren’t able to score and the Saints just took shots when given opportunities. Under 47 | |||||||
12-16-17 | Chargers -1 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
If you had asked me before the season who is the better team in this one, I would have said Chargers. Ask me now and I scream Chargers! LAC is playing lights out right now, on offense and on defense. Their only weakness is red zone efficiency as they converted only 4 red zone trips out of 15 into touchdowns during the last three games. 26.6% would rank dead-last in the league over the course of a season. However, this number should regress to the mean (league average is 54%) sooner than later, for instance against the Chiefs’ 20th ranked red zone defense (56%). That’s the scary part – the Chargers were highly underachieving in that area of the field. But the interesting part is that they consistently put themselves into a position to score even a FG while their defense shuts opponents down. Since the Eagles game they have allowed an average of 13.9 defensive PPG. Despite all the early season struggles, their offense is really flying under the radar. Anthony Lynn has established a great scheme that creates open routes, quick options for Rivers and a lot of big play opportunities. In the first game between these two, the Chargers lost 10-24 in embarrassing fashion. They were 0-3 in turnovers and the Chiefs scored 17 points off three interceptions. It was a stretch when the Chiefs were red-hot and the Chargers were ice-cold. It was also the time when they haven’t figured out their offense yet, Keenan Allen was still rusty and Hunter Henry wasn’t involved in the offense. Now the situation is reversed – the Chargers are red-hot and playing like a true Super Bowl contender whereas the Chiefs lost 6 of their last 8 with two wins against the Broncos and the fraud team from Oakland. The Chargers are light years ahead of those two. Los Angeles is going to Arrowhead and should dominate this Chiefs squad from start to finish. Chiefs are sure to have some success via Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but I expect their WRs to be non-existent and the Chargers defend passes to RBs very well. Chiefs will struggle in the most important area – passing offense. Even if the Chiefs make it into the red zone, they have been struggling mightily in that area of the field and the Chargers defense ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency (38%) right after the Jaguars. The Chargers offense should move the ball pretty efficiently here as the Chiefs have a bad defense with a bad pass rush and a horrible track record vs WR1's. Keenan Allen is red-hot and should kill that secondary even with Marcus Peters back. Chargers win this one and put themselves into the AFC West lead. Los Angeles Chargers -1 | |||||||
12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
At the beginning of the year the Super Bowl contending New England Patriots were said to be in big trouble due to their horrible defense, ranking near last in every category. As usual, Bill Belichick and company figured it out and have held opponents to 17 or less points in their last 8 games, winning all 8. On Monday night they visit the Miami Dolphins who rank near last in every offensive output category. They are 29th in Total Yards per game, 29th in Rushing Yards, and 27th in Points Scored. However on Defense they can hold their own, 16th in Total Yards allowed including 14th in Passing Yards allowed. With Gronk being out for the Patriots, I expect the Dolphins to be able to key in on other important matchups such as WR Hogan & Cooks and their trio of running backs. Being a road division game, I don't expect the Patriots to take a ton of chances, rather I see them keying on ball control and the clock management to grind out a win - largely with a rushing attack. Where as with the Dolphins, I expect to play a motivated game on Defense (especially with Gronk out) and Cutler to struggle in the air as usual. Under 48 | |||||||
12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The Patriots will be hard pressed to find enough motivation to cover the spread on Monday night. With a league leading and potential 1st round bye matchup looming against the Steleers next week, Gronk sidelined with a suspension and a heavy travel schedule as of late, the Patriots ability to win by nearly two touchdowns on the road in a primetime game would be very surprising. The Dolphins are certainly not a great team by any means, however bad/average teams perform much better in their own stadium and they are seeking that quality win in 2017 - something which they've yet to achieve. They lost in London to NO 20-0, they lost on primetime to BAL 40-0, they lost on primetime to CAR 45-21 and they lost earlier this year to the Pats 35-17. We all know how good the Patriots can be, however with the loss of Gronkowski, the offense won't come so easily especially in the red zone. The last time Gronk missed a game, the Pats scored 19 points on the road including 1 touchdown and 4 field goals to the Bucs. When the Pats beat Miami two weeks ago, he went off for 82 yards and 2 TD's. Additionally, the Pats travel schedule has taken them from Boston to Denver, then to Mexico, back to Boston, then to Buffalo, now to Miami. The Dolphins have been home for 3 of the last 4 weeks and will definitely be the more rested and healthier team. The Pats will have difficulty keeping the peddle down for an entire 60 minutes of football in this one. They always beat Miami and just beat them by 18 two weeks ago, they aren't healthy, they've had a ton of travel, and they're playing for home field advantage in the playoffs in 7 days from now. For the Dolphins this is a huge motivation game being a division rival, a primetime game and being at home. Miami Dolphins +12 | |||||||
12-10-17 | Eagles +115 v. Rams | Top | 43-35 | Win | 115 | 118 h 29 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* This situation is equal to Saints/Rams in week 12. The Eagles (who are staying on the west coast) come off a loss in a horrible spot in which they were supposed to lose. The interesting part about SNF was that the Eagles didn’t play bad – in fact, I still believe they are a better team than Seattle. Philly outgained them by an astonishing 115 total yards, 0.4 yards per play, 5 first downs. They just got victimized by MVP caliber Russell Wilson and some bad luck (turnover at the goal line, crucial penalties). The Rams come off a game against a bad Cardinals team against which they were supposed to win. They won by 16 but the game was actually pretty even. The Rams got 7 points off an interception return TD and started on the ARI 23 for another touchdown. Their performance against the Cardinals wasn’t as good as the final score indicates. This week they get to face an Eagles team that will bring everything possible to the table after they lost at the right time. The Eagles also have a dream matchup for Goff and his offense. The Seahawks showed us how to beat the Eagles: get a little creative on first down, spread it out with quick passes along with some empty formations. Russell Wilson’s performance was so great because he was highly accurate and fit the ball quickly into tight windows and extended plays almost no one else is able to. Jared Goff cannot do that. The Rams offense relies on fooling opposing defenses with misdirection, play fakes and to get guys open behind a good pass protection where Goff’s rather slow process in the pocket doesn’t hurt. Goff needs wide open receivers or time by completely trusting his OL to hold up. The three nightmare matchups this year were against the Hawks, Jaguars and Vikings – three top-10 defenses that are able to generate crazy pressure by just sending their front four. The Rams scored 10, 16 and 7 points. In all three games they were pretty much shut down after their scripted opening drive. I truly expect the Eagles to do what those other defenses did – win the battle in the trenches, stop the run and force Goff to make tougher and quicker reads from condensed pockets. Eagles defense will show up big time in a great matchup. On the other side, the Philly offense is good enough to score on every defense. Like I said, on a different day they score 20+ on the Hawks. Their dominant offensive line and creative play-calling always dictates what the defense needs to do. Expecting a bounce back game with better luck than on SNF. Eagles win this one straight up. Philadelphia Eagles M/L (If you can find a +3 @ -115 or less take the field goal insurance, but otherwise play on the m/l). | |||||||
12-10-17 | Seahawks +125 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
*Oddsmaker Error* The Jacksonville Jaguars are -2.5 to -3 favourites against the 'December' Seahawks, including 'December' Wilson. I think this is a clear oddsmakers error. Last Sunday the Seahawks offense finally played as I expected them to play before the season. If that performance wasn’t a fluke and Wilson is really back to his former self, the Hawks are going to make the NFC playoffs even more exciting. With the Seahawks there is something magical about that time of the year. Since 2012, the season Russell Wilson became the Seahawks QB, this team is 21-5 SU & 20-6 ATS between weeks 13 and 17 in the regular season, outscoring opponents 28-12.2. 3 ATS losses occured last season when they were playing without Earl Thomas who is hands down the most valuable defensive player in the league. They conceded 23, 34 and 38 points in those three games. Their 'December' record on the road is 9-2 ATS with both losses coming last year without Earl Thomas, they went 9-0 ATS from 2012-2015. I don’t know what drugs they take, but they kill teams late in the season. Defense took a few hits, but that’s still a good defense with a good starting front four, a great LB corps and Earl Thomas. The CBs are exploitable by good passing attacks (and that will most likely be their achilles in the playoffs), but that defense is still pretty good and well coached. The Jaguars aren’t going to move the ball efficiently on the Hawks and they don’t have the efficient passing attack to exploit that weakness. Seattle is going to bait Blake Bortles into mistakes. The Jaguars offense looked good against the #30 ranked pass defense by DVOA missing their best CB last Sunday but two weeks ago they just looked awful against a good Arizona defense. That ARI game should be the reference when analyzing this matchup. The Jaguars offensive line is completely banged up and will lose the trenches battle against Richardson, Bennett, Clark, Reed and Jones. Bortles is good for 1-2 picks and the running game is good for 4-5 TFL. If we see 'December' Wilson, it will be enough to benefit from the defensive effort and the Seahawks go 9-4. Wilson and the offense showed us the blueprint of how to beat a strong pass rush last SNF. Spread it out and hit precise passes quickly. The Hawks should do just that against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are laying 3 to the Seahawks. It’s the Jaguars against the Seahawks. Blake Bortles against Russell Mr. December Wilson. Let’s not overthink this. Seattle Seahawks moneyline (If you can find a +3 @ -115 or less take the field goal insurance, but otherwise play on the m/l) | |||||||
12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | 15-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Pick Only* Over 48.5 | |||||||
12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +6 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 17 m | Show |
*Syndicate Steam* Finally the Giants got rid of HC Ben McAdoo. He did a great job from 2014-2015 as the OC, but since he has been the HC the offense has arguably been bottom three material. This season he lost everyone on the roster. The “team plays hard after the HC got fired” angle is one of my favourite. I truly expect the Giants to come out firing on both sides to destroy all playoffs hopes the Cowboys still have. I like Steve Spagnuolo as a DC and I believe he hasn’t had any discrepancies with the team – he will get them ready to roll. OC Mike Sullivan will try to get creative – it may not be enough to light up a bad Cowboys defense with Sean Lee back, but it should be enough to cover this game. The Cowboys destroyed the Redskins in prime time – atleast that’s what the final result says. But the truth is, the Redskins actually outgained them while losing by 24. More total yards, more yards per play, held Dak to 11/22 for 96 net yards passing, but they had 4 turnovers and the Cowboys had zero. Even the 4.3 YPC by the Cowboys weren’t anything special, but the Redskins weren’t able to generate key stops on the short fields they provided. We should have the same opinion on the Cowboys offense we had pre TNF – they aren’t good at all. The Giants’ defensive line around JPP, Vernon and Snacks is still able to win in the trenches and Spagnuolo always seems to be in Dak’s mind. In their three games with Dak against this Giants defense with Spag as the DC, the Cowboys haven’t topped 20 points. They scored 20, 10 and 19. If the Giants don’t lose the turnover battle by -4 as the Skins did I don’t see how the Cowboys get into the 20's here. If they don’t get into the 20's, the spread of +3.5 to +6 should be money. New York Giants +6 (this line is sure to move, play down to +3.5 if necessary) | |||||||
12-07-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The key to this game is a 21-year old CB who plays for the New Orleans Saints – Marshon Lattimore. If Lattimore plays this week (currently Questionable), he will shadow Julio which makes the job of Matt Ryan almost as uncomfortable as it was against the Vikes. The Saints defense in general isn’t as stout as the Vikings and the Falcons will be efficient on the ground, but taking away Julio allows the Saints defense to shift their attention to the other guys and to stack the box even more. Last Sunday, the Falcons were held to 9 points and 1/10 on third down. For the first seven weeks, the Falcons offense wasn’t efficient by any means. Steve Sarkisian basically didn’t know how to get that offense going. He didn’t involve Julio Jones enough. From week 8 to 12, this offense played differently. Sarkisian involved Julio a lot more on first down and deep passes which completely altered the offense. Per Warren Sharp, Julio was targeted 44% on first down and 66% deep (from 30%) between week 8 and 12. The offense was moving the ball much more efficiently and had a much easier job on third down when they got to it. All other WRs benefited from that. During that span, they faced NYJ, CAR, DAL, SEA & TB. NONE of these teams had a quality CB1 that was able to match up with Julio. Last Sunday, “Rhodes closed” was shadowing him and his stat line was 2-24-0 on 6 targets. This led to a worse first down efficiency than usual and the Falcons’ average distance to go on third down was 8.4 yards. It’s tough to move the sticks that way. Falcons should be able to put up points, but the Saints defense will generate some key stops. That brings us to the Falcons defense that looked to have a good day against the Vikings offense. Atlanta has a bottom-3 run defense but somehow managed to hold the Vikes to 3.4 yards per carry. However, the Saints and their two-headed monster Kamara/Ingram (fingers crossed Ingram can play as he is still Questionable) are still a different category and should move the ball all day on the Falcons front seven and their secondary doesn’t have enough firepower to consistently match up with all the Saints WRs without much help from the front four against a good NO pass protection. It should be noted that LG Andrus Peat is out for the Saints, however this was expected and backup Senio Kelemete will fill in. Kelemete is a 27 year old vet at 6'3" 300lbs, so I don't expect a huge drop in performance at LG. Also, LT Terron Armstead should be back. I love the Saints here with Lattimore playing and the Saints should get more key stops on defense which could lead to a 27-21 kind of win, but taking any kind of points here is a bonus. New Orleans Saints +2.5 (buy up to +3 if -115 or less) | |||||||
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This game presents itself as a great revenge opportunity for the Bengals and I expect them to take full advantage. Cincinnati looks to salvage their season (5W-6L; currently 3rd in AFCN) after winning two straight games and getting a dvision home primetime game against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have won 5 straight games over the Bengals and have won all games in Cincy dating back to 2013. The Steelers, winners of 6 straight games coming into tonight's matchup, come in to this game a little banged up with Antonio Brown being a game time decision. If he can't go that would be huge for the Bengals, however they'll still need to keep their eye on Martavis Bryant and the rest of the WR's who would fill in for AB. I expect a motivated performance on defense this evening by the Bengals after losing 29-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Look for Atkins to provide a lot of pressure on an aging Roethisberger who doesn't seem to avoid back field tackles like he once did. Coming off a +100 yard performance on the ground, look for Joe Mixon to establish the run in order to set up a Dalton/Green combination down field. The Bengals may eventually shoot themselves in the foot like they've done a lot this year already, however we are getting substantial points at home for an important division game under the national spotlight and the line value is simply too much. They may lose in the end, but I expect them to compete and make it a close game. Cincinnati Bengals +6 (play down to +4.5) | |||||||
12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Seattle Seahawks +6 | |||||||
12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New Orleans Saints -5 | |||||||
12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 45 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 45 | |||||||
12-03-17 | Vikings +3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 101 h 33 m | Show |
'Top Underdog of Week 13' The Minnesota Vikings are still not getting enough credit in my opinion. +3 at Atlanta means they would be even on a neutral field – disagree! The Vikings are the better team, playing better Football on both sides of the ball and all that against a stronger schedule. Purple Pain ranks 1st in my efficiency ranking and played the 4th-toughest efficiency schedule. I am missing quality wins from the Falcons this season. They had a quality win against the Packers who lost both their starting tackles in that game when I remember right. They lost vs the Bills, Dolphins and got killed by the Pats. They won a stinker against the Jets, so they aren’t far away from going 0-4 against the AFC East. They were dominant against the Cowboys without Zeke, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee. They won at Seattle by gaining less than 200 pass yards and less than 100 rush yards. Less than 5% of the teams since 1989 scored 30+ points in that scenario – the Falcons are one of them. They played a Bucs team that lost 3 offensive linemen along with their two best (Dotson & Marpet) and SS TJ Ward during the game, that was without their best cornerback (Hargreaves) and their best defensive end (Ayers). You cannot decide who you play, but you can decide how you play them and I am really missing quality wins from the Falcons. Games in which they really dominated a good opponent from start to finish. So now they are -3 favs against the Vikings? I expected that line to be around pk. The Falcons have a bad matchup against the top-teams in the NFC simply because of their defense. For the past two weeks I have been wondering they the good per-play efficiency of the Falcons doesn’t pass the eye test. They play a very conservative defense without a lot of blitzes. They want to limit big plays and keep the game in front of them. They limit big plays but they don’t efficiently shutting down opposing offenses. Last week the Bucs offense lost three starting linemen and still moved the ball on them. They turned the ball over in the Falcons red zone on 4th & 1 by throwing deep so they had a shot at scoring more than 20. That Vikings offensive line is gonna impose its will on them all game long. They are going to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant is in the concussion protocol and didn’t practice on Wednesday. If he is absent, Brian Poole and Robert Alford will play outside against arguably the best WR tandem in the NFL – Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. When Thielen plays in the slot, it’s Brian Poole or rookie safety Demontae Kazee on him – disaster. The Vikings should have no trouble posting 30+ points against the Falcons and make a huge statement. The Falcons offense is a bit overrated in my opinion and they are going to have problems moving the ball on one of the best defenses. With Matt Ryans interception-regression year I wouldn’t be surprised by 2 interceptions even though Case Keenum is also always good for one. Vikings should get a road win at Atlanta against a team that is overrated IMO and isn’t expected to compete with the NFC juggernauts. Vikings +3 | |||||||
12-03-17 | Lions v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 20-44 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
'Top Fave of Week 13' I keep saying this: the Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. The loss to the Vikes should have been a blowout, but they were gifted the TD drive right before halftime and got another TD when Stafford threw it up into double coverage. Vikes missed four points by kicking. A score of 34-17ish would have been closer to reality. Now they travel to Baltimore to play the No.1 ranked defense on the road in an open stadium. The Ravens defense also ranks 4th in scoring and 3rd in yards per play. This is going to be one heck of an away game for the Lions. It also doesn’t help that Stafford has a bad ankle when playing against that Ravens front seven. He said he should be good to go, but his ankle got rolled just 10 days ago and he desperately needs fluidity in his legs because he isn’t a really good pocket passer and needs his legs to create big plays out of structure. The Lions can’t run the ball (bottom-3 run offense), but play against a top-10 run defense. The Ravens will absolutely shut down the run game and find strategies to make Stafford uncomfortable and create short fields for the Ravens run game and their offensive MVP Justin Tucker. Another game with a +1 or higher turnover advantage for the Ravens wouldn’t surprise me at all. Seeing a 23-16 kind of game in favour of Baltimore. Ravens -2.5 (-3 fine too) | |||||||
12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
The Jets moved the ball pretty well against a top-10 defense last week (Panthers) and had some bad luck. Austin Seferian-Jenkins dropped the easiest TD he will catch in his entire career and another great TD grab was ruled incomplete which was weird. Both touchdown opportunities resulted in field goals. The Panthers had a fumble return touchdown and a special teams touchdown. The Jets actually outgained them by almost 100 total yards and 1.3 yards per play. Usually I think twice about taking a team late in the season that doesn’t play for the playoffs but this Jets team is a little bit different. Atleast that is what I read between the lines when listening to interviews. They are very young across the team and they are highly motivated. Todd Bowles gets them to play with passion. Before the season started, everyone (including myself) said they would be playing for the 1st overall pick and when you see them play, especially the defense, it seems they play with a chip on their shoulder. It isn’t enough to beat the better and way more experienced teams but they can play a lot of games close which they absolutely did. I don’t consider the Chiefs a good team right now and they come into this game in a downward spiral. I wasn’t high on them going into the season but they proved me wrong. Over the last few weeks they have finally been playing to how I expected them to play: bad defense, weak WR corps and a QB who produces great conservative stats but can’t rip coverages apart and prefers the screen pass everytime. The Chiefs surprised opposing defenses with their creative concepts early in the season. Defenses caught up and copied the Steelers gameplan – play zone, limit YAC and let Smith make reads from the pocket. Since the Raiders game on TNF, the Chiefs have scored an average of 14.5 offensive PPG in regulation and that includes the weird touchdown at the end of the first half at Dallas. Their defense didn’t look bad the last couple games because they played DEN, NYG and BUF. The current Jets offense is better than those three. Never expected I would say this but the Jets offense has a good matchup this week. The Jets will go run-first against the worst run defense in the league. I expect Forte and Powell to go off here because the Jets are one of the few teams that possess a reliable and respected deep threat – Robby Anderson is having a Pro Bowl season. He has a TD in each of the last five games. He is a great vertical receiver that can make adjustments at the catch point to catch tight window or off-target throws. The Chiefs have to account for that all the time on shot plays while also needing to send extra help into the box to boost a bad run defense. This is a simple numbers game and the Jets offense has a big advantage. The Chiefs have to rely on McCown mistakes here otherwise they are going to struggle to stop the Jets throughout major parts of the game. The Chiefs on offense don’t seem to do anything against a hard playing defense with two top-5 DROY candidates at FS and SS who are going to limit the Chiefs’ run and screen game. Jets should win this game and I will gladly take a +3. New York Jets +3.5 (+3 is fine) | |||||||
11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens -7.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The Ravens host the Texans on Monday Night Football and I expect a complete performance by the home team. The Ravens have a very clean bill of health coming into MNF Week 12, with likely only one starting scratch (Guard Eluemunor). All the other starters including Mosley, Suggs, Jimmy Smith and both starting Tackles look ready to go. With their starting unit in tack, this should lead to excellent execution on both sides of the ball. Already a very low penalized team in the NFL (6th least in 2017), look for the Ravens to be the ones applying all the pressure in what is sure to be a hostile environment. Knowing the Texans have really only Hopkins and Miller as offensive threats, the game plan will be to double Hopkins with Smith and Carr or Humphrey; and the run defense will then allow to get pressure in the backfield. They already rank 2nd in pass defense with 185.2 yards allowed per game and they have a league leading 16 interceptions. On offense don't sleep on Woodhead/Collins or Maclin/Wallace. Harbaugh will find a way to use his weapons against a very banged up Texans D. The Texans are up their with some of the most penalized teams (23rd of 32 teams, 32nd being the worst). What hurts them even more is the amount of injuries they have on both sides of the ball, which should lead to even more penalties. Will Fuller out leaves them without a true deep threat and as mentioned earlier, Hopkins is going to have a very difficult night with the double team. Savage finally picked up a win last week, but playing in Baltimore on MNF is a completely different beast. No Watt, no Mercilius, no Cushing, no Foreman, and even Clowney is coming in with a nagging ankle injury. Note: The Ravens haven't hosted a MNF game since 2012, so you know the crowd and players will be amped up. Also this is an official blackout game, not media, but team colours and fans - another huge motivation factor. I don't like the Texans (Savage) chances coming back from any kind of deficit. Once the Ravens get out to a lead I expect the Texans to have to abandon their game strategy and be forced to air it out against essentially the best pass D in the league. The Ravens should handle the Texans by at least 10. Ravens -7.5 | |||||||
11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show |
The Rams are in a crazy bounce back spot – they come off one of the toughest games possible, a road game at Minnesota. They were supposed to lose. The perception of them shouldn’t change off that 7-24 loss – they were simply outplayed in terms of matchups. They were able to hang tough until the 2nd half, had a fumble at the goal line and at the end their defense just got worn out, because the Vikes ran 73 offensive plays which is way above average. The Rams played three times against top-10 defenses (JAX, SEA, MIN) and scored 16, 10 & 7 offensive points. All three of those teams were able to create a disrupting pass rush to make Jared Goff feel uncomfortable in the pocket. The Vikings also completely shut down the run game after the first Rams drive, which put Goff into a lot of long passing situations. Everson Griffen didn’t register a sack against Andrew Whitworth, but he was able to push the pocket very often, which also led to a sack by Danielle Hunter. Goff still isn’t the greatest passer – he needs confidence in his pocket and open receivers. When a defense is able to condense the pocket and close a lot of space (as Vikes did with their athletic LBs), he is forced to fit balls into tight windows and that’s something he struggles with. The Saints come off a crazy comeback-win on overtime and the media is praising them just as they already won the Super Bowl. After Jay Gruden gave the ball back with some terrible decisions, Drew Brees threw a pick on the final drive but it came back because of a flag – the Saints shouldn’t have won that game. New Orleans are on a 8-0 win streak, but their schedule during that stretch becomes more and more weaker. Their defense looked awesome, but they faced a lot of the weaker offenses in the league. Now dealing with injuries, this is the perfect letdown spot for them. Over their last 5 games, they had games vs the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Bills and Redskins. 3 of their last 4 were at home. The Redskins were the best offense they faced since week 2 and Washington moved the ball at will on them, especially after Marshon Lattimore went down. It’s not sure whether Lattimore will play this week. Not being able to play a snap with that bad ankle sounds pessimistic. Lattimore really has been the key to that defense, because he can shut down the outside WR and the defense can shade their remaining coverage over to the middle which closes more space for other receivers. But even with Lattimore, the Saints don’t have a good matchup against the Rams – if Watskins is covered, the Rams have enough playmakers to create matchup problems for the rest of the Saints defense. Another big advantage for the Rams will be the ability to run efficiently on the Saints run defense that ranks bottom-5. The Saints lost DE Alex Okafor which can be described as a big loss. He has been a force against the run, producing 10 TFL and the third-highest run stop percentage in the NFL. He also added 4.5 sacks. His backup – rookie Trey Hendrickson – has seen the field mostly as a pass rusher and needs to refine his game. He will be a major downgrade from Okafor and won’t be a threat to Andrew Whitworth. Taking away a good run defender from a bad run D isn’t a good idea. So Goff can simply ignore the left side of the pass rush and focus on hitting receivers in space on shorter downs than last week, because the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground. I am expecting a big game by the offense and a good-enough game from the defense to seal a home win in a very good spot. Rams -2.5 | |||||||
11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 65 h 12 m | Show | |
*Subscriber only pick* The fact that this division is so close now tells me the Panthers are not going to lay an egg here. They simply have to win this game and if they do, it shouldn’t be close. That being said, this play is more a fade of the Jets than a play on Carolina. The Jets offense is just bad despite playing the 32nd-ranked schedule. They beat the Jags with two big runs when their run defense was the worst in the league in the pre-Dareus era. They beat the Browns in maybe the flukiest win of the season. They didn’t cross 20 points in regulation in either game. It would surprise me if the Jets offense is going to do anything in this game. I think a turnover-fest is much more likely than them scoring close to 20 points. The Panthers just have to take care of business. They haven’t been a good offense year to date, but I am expecting them to find their groove coming out of a bye and Funchess has proven that he's capable of filling the Kelvin Benjamin void and should be able to continue that here on Sunday. I think they have enough potential to score in the 20s this week and might even cross 30 if the Jets produce some costly turnovers. I am seeing a 31-14 kind of game in favour of Carolina. Carolina Panthers -5 | |||||||
11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show |
While the Chargers come off a 50-pt outing and the Cowboys got blown out by their divisional rival, the perception favours the Chargers and I agree with it. Zeke and Tyron Smith are the two most important offensive players along with Dak Prescott. Sean Lee is the most important defensive player. Missing those three would probably kill most teams in the league outside of Boston. I think Prescott still played as good as he possibly could, but the offense was simply over-matched by a good Eagles defense. We have two interesting coaching angles going for this game. Jason Garrett is the worst short-rest coach in the league at 2-14 ATS, while Anthony Lynn is a rookie head coach on a short week who comes off a big emotional win against his former team who didn’t want to have him as their head coach. While I cannot make many cases for the Cowboys as a side, I am making one for the total. The latter is simply too high. I expected it to be in the 44-45 range. I am struggling to see any of these teams scoring significantly north of 20. I expect the Chargers to come out a little bit flat after that huge win and Lynn not being capable of putting together a good offensive gameplan on a short week. Before playing against one of the current-worst defenses with a lot of short fields, they averaged 17.9 offensive PPG. DeMarcus Lawrence will be all over anyone who lines up at RT this week, forcing some throw aways by Rivers. I also believe that both teams are trying to attack the opposing defense on the ground which is gonna eat the clock. I think the Chargers’ ceiling in this game is in the low 20s. On the flip side, this Los Angeles defense is really good. Denzel Perryman being back helps that defense, but they are still vulnerable on the ground and that’s how the Cowboys are going to attack them, because their passing attack will be lost against this defense. In Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the Chargers are in “charge” of the Los Angeles “Nippers” which will be all over La’el Collins and Byron Bell in pass protection. The pass offense won’t work and I think their ceiling is in the high 10s, around 17 to 20. 23-17, 20-16 likely scores. I am seeing a low scoring affair and that’s why I'm playing on the Under. | |||||||
11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions are the luckiest team in the NFL. They won another game in which they were outgained in total yards and yards per play, but they got a defensive touchdown off a fumbled snap. They now lead the league with five defensive touchdowns. On their game-winning drive against the Bears, Matt Stafford threw a pick that was dropped and later Matt Prater hit a 52yd field goal. Then Mitch Trubisky converted a long 4th down with his legs before Connor Barth missed the game-tying field goal. The way this Lions team keeps winning games isn’t sustainable. In the first game against the Vikes, they benefited from 3 fumbles and the Dalvin Cook injury. They won the last three games against the Vikings in fluky fashion and I believe they cannot do it a fourth time. The Vikings are so much better than the Lions. They had to switch QBs, play with a backup QB, lost their RB threat (still the most rush yards on the team) and still went 8-2 on a solid schedule. Without Bradford getting injured, they might be 9-1 or even 10-0 to this point. They don’t get outgained by worse competition, they just easily beat them. IMO, the Vikes are one of the best overall teams in the NFL at this point. Before the season started, Matt Stafford was 5-46 SU against teams who finished the season with a winning record. If you think the Panthers, Vikes, Saints and Steelers finish with a winning record, he is now 6-49 SU and 6-50 considering the Falcons a winning team. I disagreed with the line opening at pickem and immediately took the Vikes. The line got bet up very quickly and is now much closer to where it should be. It wouldn’t surprise me if this line reached -3 come Thursday before we will see some buyback on the Lions. I think the Vikings will put a beating on the Lions this time and make a strong case for one of the two top-seeds in the NFC. Minnesota Vikings PK'em | |||||||
11-19-17 | Eagles -4 v. Cowboys | Top | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
Last year the Eagles got slowed down by the bye week, but the Cowboys are in trouble and everyone should focus on their injury report. Without Sean Lee, this defense gets shredded and gives up more than 5 YPC. Without Tyron Smith, Prescott faces pressure all game long. Without Zeke, the offense misses an important element. If the Eagles play up to their strengths, they should roll the Cowboys. Eagles -4 | |||||||
11-19-17 | Bengals +2.5 v. Broncos | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Bengals +2.5 | |||||||
11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Not only do I believe that the Pats are 6.5 points better than the Raiders, I also believe they show them what a real playoff team is. The Raiders come off their bye, but they stay at Oakland all week to prepare for the game. The Pats played in Denver in high elevation and they stay the week in Colorado Springs (6,000 ft) in the Air Force facility to prepare for the game in Mexico (7,200 ft). That’s very smart by Bill Belichick and a major advantage for New England. The Raiders prepare for the game at 43 ft elevation. The slow Pats defense held 6 of 9 teams to 20 points or less and the other three teams (KC, HOU, CAR) have QBs who can create plays with their legs and play in offenses that can create in space. The Raiders are a more static offense with a QB who doesn’t want to hold the ball. Belichick will have his defense ready – we might see a lot of three-men rushes. Raiders defense is no matchup for the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked offense. Pats should roll a minor opponent on a neutral field with good preparation. Pats -6.5 it is. Patriots -6.5 | |||||||
11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants UNDER 46.5 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Under 46.5 | |||||||
11-19-17 | Rams v. Vikings -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
Despite the Rams 7-2 record, I am skeptical regarding the rest of the season. The Rams played a soft schedule thus far. Here are their wins: blowout vs Colts with Scott Tolzien, close shootout win vs Niners, close shootout win vs Cowboys, “quality win” vs Jaguars with two special teams scores, blowout vs Cards, blowout vs the Giants who quit, blowout vs a decimated Texans team with Tom Savage. Their two losses are against a healthy Redskins team and the Hawks. If we consider the Texans a bottom-10 team without Watson, the Rams have 5 wins vs bottom-10 teams and 2 wins vs Dallas and Jaguars (14 points by special teams). They were actually outgained by total yards and yards per play in both games. That isn’t too impressive, is it? Now they go to the Bank, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL right now. The Vikings defense is impressive and is something the Rams haven’t faced this year besides Seattle and Jacksonville. In those games, the Rams scored 10 and 13 offensive points. If you count the fumble touchback by Gurley, they scored 17 and 13 vs two top-10 defenses. Purple Pain has held every team at 19 points or below at home this year and they would be unbeaten if they didn’t fumble the ball away 3 times vs Detroit in the game Dalvin Cook got hurt. This is a complete challenge for the Rams and I expect them to struggle the same way they struggled against the Hawks and Jaguars. If you watch the Rams offense, one thing gets obvious: Jared Goff almost never needs to throw into tight windows/coverage as his receivers are just schemed wide-open and he has a lot of time in the pocket. Whitworth is going to play against the candidate for DPOY, Everson Griffen. Griffen won’t win a lot of matchups, but he will send more pressure from Goffs blind side than the QB is used to get in other games. On the other side, Danielle Hunter has an intriguing matchup against Rob Havenstein who still struggles a bit in pass protection. The run defense of Minnesota is really good as well as their red zone defense. Jared Goff will be forced to make much more difficult throws than usual. A great matchup for the Rams is Robert Woods vs Trae Waynes, but Goff still needs to throw with anticipation under pressure to exploit that certain matchup consistently and I don’t think he is able to do that. I am seeing an equal offensive output as they had vs Seattle and Jacksonville. Vikings should just score enough on offense to win that game on the back of their defense. Vikings -2 | |||||||
11-19-17 | Ravens -2 v. Packers | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a must-win game for the Ravens. They are 4-5 and one win away from the AFC wild card (Bills). Steelers, Patriots and Chiefs are too far away, Jaguars and Titans hold the tiebreaker against the Ravens. If they want to play in January, they gotta focus on the last wild card. They know that the Bills have a ceiling of 8-8/9-7 with games vs LAC, IND & MIA (2x) left. They simply have to win this game to put themselves into a good position for the wild card race. The Packers come off a surprising divisional win, whereas the Ravens are off their bye and have one day extra rest before the next game at Houston on Monday. John Harbaugh is one of the better post-bye coaches in the league, going 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS and winning by 8.9 PPG off a bye since being the HC in Baltimore. The final score in the Packers/Bears game last Sunday is a little bit misleading. The Bears missed Danny Trevathan badly against the run, they had bad tackling and produced stupid flags in the secondary which guided some big plays for GB and on top of that, they had a sure touchdown that Benny Cunningham fumbled into the end zone for a touchback. John Fox challenged the play and the touchback was the result. Without a challenge, they would have had the ball at the goal line. The Ravens live and die with their defense, but that should be enough to win here. The Ravens defense is stout on a very easy schedule. They have the ability to make below average offenses look bad. Their revamped secondary with Tony Jefferson, a healthy Jimmy Smith, rookie Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been playing very well. And Jimmy Smith just got much healthier during the bye, he missed lots of snaps over the last few games. NT Brandon Williams is arguably their most important player, but he was injured from weeks 3-6. This is a horrible matchup for a Packers offense that is bottom-10 material with Brett Hundley and just lost their leading RB Aaron Jones for 3-6 weeks and Ty Montgomery is banged up with a ribs injury. Even Hundley has a bad harmstring. Green Bay will struggle to run efficiently which sets up difficult passing situations for Hundley all game long. The Ravens secondary can just sit back and win their matchups against an average receiving corps. Mike McCarthy has shown us in 3 games that he can’t work out a game plan that maximizes the potential of his offense and surprises opposing defenses. He is completely dependent on Aaron Rodgers. I am seeing bad production and 2-3 turnovers by the Pack offense. This is a dream matchup for Baltimore. Yes the Ravens offense has struggled, however they are getting healthier and don’t face a good defense at Lambeau. Danny Woodhead comes back who is a nice addition in the short passing game, just for instance. Ravens have a lot of passes for negative yardage where Woodhead will help. Another key is that there are around 20 miles of winds expected on Sunday, so the game is going to be run-heavy and that’s where you love having the Ravens defense on your ticket. If their defense plays like they are supposed to do, the offense is going to have an easy job. The Ravens cannot afford to lose this game and I don’t believe they will. Ravens -2 | |||||||
11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 37.5 | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
From a numbers standpoint, Browns were the right side last week, but they beat themselves again. 6 red zone trips and they managed to lose by 14 – wow. That coaching staff seems to be inept, that’s why I stop playing them even though I lean them again this week. 7.5 points are too many in a good matchup. I played the Under, as I believe it’s a much better option this week. First of all, the weather forecast says it’s gonna be around 21 mph winds with as high as 25 mph. Games with 20+ mph of winds result in an average scoring total of 35. The weather condition that affects totals the most is wind, not rain or snow. In snow or rain, offenses aren’t forced to change their gameplan, because we pitches favor the offenses. It’s easier to change directions forwards than backwards or sidewards. Without wind, passes have the same velocity and trajectory in wet conditions as in dry conditions. Some coaches just think they need to run more in wet conditions. With wind it gets tricky and the magic number is 20mph. When you throw the ball in heavy winds, you cannot be as accurate as normal, because the force of the wind has such a high impact on the trajectory of the pass. A few inaccurate throws because of wind can kill drives. The first windy game of the year, CAR@TB, ended 17-3 and both QBs combined for 39/70 (55.7%) for 348 yds for 4.9 YPA when their season average is 61% and 62% completions and 6+ YPA. Last year’s game PIT@CLE was a wind game and ended 24-9. QBs combined for 44/77 343 yards, 4.5 YPA. With the Jaguars and Browns, we get a matchup that has a high probability of ending below 37.5 even without wind. The Jaguars have a phenomenal defense and improved against the run with the addition off Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars have a run-first offense with a bad matchup against the best run defense in the league. Take away the run and the Jaguars offense will be completely limited this Sunday. But so will be the Browns defense also, because they won’t move the ball on the Jaguars, no way. It wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see an offensive touchdown this week and the game ends somewhere around 17-12 with a defensive score. Loving the Under here. Under 37.5 | |||||||
11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is a matchup of two high-potential offenses with questionable defenses in a game with standard weather conditions. The Titans offense scores 24.9 PPG with Marcus Mariota as the starter which would rank 7th in the league (Matt Cassel started vs MIA). The Steelers defense ranks high by metrics and gives up only 15.2 PPG which ranks 2nd in the league. They seem to be much improved from last season, but they played an easy schedule and keep showing some big mistakes just like last week when corners blew their assignments in cover 2 and cover 3 on the long Colts touchdowns. Here are the offenses they have faced with their respective ranks in offensive scoring: Browns (29th), Vikings (6th) in their first game with Case Keenum, Bears (32nd), Ravens (27th), Jaguars (14th), Chiefs (5th), Bengals (30th), Lions (10th), Colts (24th). That’s not a tough schedule at all. Their defensive schedule ranks near last in the league in terms of strength. We can say they haven’t been tested a lot. This Titans offense is a tough challenge for this defense, especially since they give up 4.6 YPC (26th) on the 10th-toughest schedule. On an average schedule, the Steelers defense would probably give up around 17-20 PPG. The realistic ceiling for this Titans offense is 20-24 points at Pittsburgh. The production of the Steelers offense has been underwhelming, their 19.9 offensive PPG are far below expectations. With the personnel, they should be a 27ish PPG offense. But there is the same schedule-issue for the offense : they played a really tough schedule. Fortunately, they get to play one of the worse defenses in the league. The Titans recently played the Browns in a game in which they changed the QBs twice, the Ravens and Bengals, all three are bottom-five offenses in 2017. That’s why the perception is a little bit too high on them I guess. The Titans defense played an easy schedule and they rank 20th in scoring defense, giving up 22 defensive PPG. They aren’t good in stopping the run and their secondary is the weakest part. Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims can’t really match up with the Steelers – Pittsburgh should move the ball on the Titans. The ceiling for the Steelers is 24+ points in my opinion. I think if both teams run a lot without breakout runs and show red zone struggles, the score could stay below 44, but that scenario isn’t likely to me. I think the score should end atleast around 24-20 with potential for 35-24. This game should fly into the 50s. Over! Over 44 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
The Falcons are due. The only thing that’s holding them back is regression from last season as they are just unlucky (the Julio TD drop last week?). They are putting up top-6 metrics on offense and are due for a big win. They come off a divisional loss in their third straight road game at Carolina to play a Cowboys team that has the Eagles on deck and is without Ezekiel Elliott. I reduce 2 points for the Cowboys without Elliott and it could be even more because he is so valuable in my opinion. The Cowboys defense looked great vs the Chiefs, but the Chiefs played fluky on offense, Alex Smith is reverting to the conservative guy who doesn’t climb the pocket. Falcons should move the ball at will here, especially on the ground and I don’t think the Boys have enough firepower without Zeke to match that. Atlanta Falcons -3 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
There's not a lot to dive into with this matchup, for me this one is a no-brainer. This is a men vs boys kind of game and I expect the Steelers to trash the Colts. Indy is like Arizona, they won close vs bad teams and got blown out by the better teams. Without Hooker and Davis, this secondary will get torched and they also can’t stop the run or challenge that OL in the trenches. It also doesn’t help them that the Steelers play very good on D and also are bringing back Martavis Bryant. This is blowout city to me, 38-13 kind of game. Pittsburgh Steelers -10 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
Great situational spot for the home team. Bills got embarrassed by the Jets on prime time and the Saints just beat the Bucs straight up. So it’s a natural reaction that the Saints open as -2 favs at Buffalo and the line absolutely makes sense. However, I think this is a great spot to take the Bills in a decent matchup off extra rest vs a dome team in low temps around 30. Sell high spot for the Saints off games vs Hundley, Trubisky and Winston/Fitzpatrick. Tidbit: Drew Brees is 0-6-1 ATS in games with temps lower than 40 degrees. The Saints have the best matchup against teams that struggle to run the ball. They wanna jump out to a lead, milk the clock and give their good pass defense opportunities to make plays. First of all, it’s not easy to take a lead at Buffalo and secondly, the Bills are a run-first team that is able to stun the Saints and their only weakness on the ground. I am expecting a huge game by LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor on the ground. The Bills get two important players back, CB EJ Gaines and TE Charles Clay. Gaines helps tremendously because he is a very underrated corner. Clay helps a lot as a receiving threat underneath because the Bills obviously aren’t stacked at WR, but will see Kelvin Benjamin make his debut. It’s save to assume that the Bills aren’t going to shut the Saints offense down, but I dont expect the Saints to move the ball easily at Buffalo. Sean McDermott spent years in the NFC South and he knows these offenses in and out. They already beat the Bucs and Falcons and were an end zone drop away from beating the Panthers at Carolina. Buffalo Bills +3 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Chargers +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
The Chargers come off their bye week playing against a hot Jaguars team that has been able to mask their weaknesses. LAC were unlucky at New England – they had two touchdowns come back because of stupid penalties. Those drives returned in zero points. I think this is a talented team that still has some wild card hopes. They get Denzel Perryman back from IR, their starting Mike which is an upgrade. I expect the Chargers to use their bye week to focus on their run defense because that’s pretty much the only weakness that can be fixed quite a bit on the Chargers team. The Jaguars want to pound the ball and mix in some PA, jump a lead and let their defense win the rest of the game. As soon as a team jumps a lead on them, the Jags are in jeopardy because their offense has to function out of structure. They aren’t build to beat teams through the air when the opponent knows what’s coming. Bortles looks solid this season when he doesn’t have pressure. On most of his successful passes he doesn’t need to throw into tight windows or throw someone open. He basically hits open receivers off of play action a lot. Versus the Bengals he wasn’t good but the Jags were successful on early downs so that he didn’t need to force anything. He still had some terrible throws and dropped picks. The Jags are 5-0 when they had a close score long enough or jumped a lead. In their 3 losses, defenses didn’t let them pull away. I think the Chargers defense has enough potential to keep this one close early on, even though we are expecting the Jaguars to be quite successful on the ground and a big advantage is that ex- Jags HC Gus Bradley is their DC. He will put in the extra hours to make his defense shine. LAC has a talented corner group with Hayward and Williams ranking and they are very good against TE's which will contain the Jags secret weapon Mercedes Lewis. On offense the Chargers have a QB who is good for 3 picks twice a season but also one of the best when throwing from condensed pockets and you need that unique attribute when playing vs this Jaguars DL. Gordon could see a couple breakout runs against one of the worst defenses in the league. I believe that the Chargers have the potential and the situation to keep this game close against a team that needs a certain game script to be successful. If the Chargers score the first touchdown, the +4 has a great shot of hitting. San Diego Chargers +4 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
This is probably the best situational spot on the board. The Lions come off a big win at Lambeau and have two divisional games vs the Bears and Vikings on deck. In between they play vs the lowly Browns. Cleveland come off their bye week and get a great price here at +11.5. Winless teams in week 6 or later are 26-8 ATS off their bye week. Teams with 0 or 1 wins are 80-50 ATS. The Vikings game at London was interesting to watch because Hue finally put Kizer in a position to succeed. He responded with some great plays under pressure against a great defense. Hue Jackson constantly asked Kizer to throw aggressively downfield to WR's like Kenny Britt and Ricardo Louis. Getting Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman back could completely alter this offense. The Browns have a good run game and two versatile RB's who weren’t used properly overall until the Vikes game. This week they get Garrett, Peppers and McCourty back. McCourty and Garrett are great additions to this pass defense especially this week. The Lions rank 32nd in rush offense, rushing for just 3.2 yards per carry. They won’t be able to run on the Browns so they gotta need to get their offense going simply via the pass so they will be highly predictable on offense. Their pass offense has been on fire the past three weeks, but given the spot and long third downs, they could be forced into some mistakes which should help the Browns keeping this game close. A good way to attack the Browns is via the TE position as they are maybe the worst at defending TE's, but the Lions don’t have a quality TE. The Lions simply need to rely on the pass and if the Browns can limit their turnovers, they have a good shot at covering double digits here. Update: Lions are likely without their best OL, T.J. Lang who was put into the concussion protocol. Cleveland Browns +11 | |||||||
11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
Put everything you had in mind regarding these two teams aside for a moment. What in the world justifies to make the Jets -2.5/-3 favs on the road? This is public perception vs reality at its finest. The Jets beat the Bills in a great spot at home last week and the media has been all over it. Todd Bowles is getting Coach of the Year praises, OC Morton is talked as a sleeper head coach. This team has exceeded all expectations already, also mine. But it doesn’t justify to make them FG favs on the road. Jets have one single quality win all season, that was last week in a great spot vs a rookie HC on a short week at home. Their four road games? Lost by 9 at BUF, outgained by 194 yards. Lost by 25 at OAK, outgained by 139 yards. Lost by 3 at MIA, outgained by 85 yards. Won by 3 at CLE. The Browns game was an historical win. They got outgained by 205 yards and the Browns turned the ball over 3 times inside the Jets 5 yard line. Jets should have lost by 10+ there. Overall, they are 1-3 on the road but should be 0-4. They got outgained by a total of 623 yards in four road games. They are a bad road team. Now lets talk about the Bucs. Tampa Bay is having a season to forget. Doug Martin was suspended for the first three games, Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David missed a combined 8 games, TJ Ward has been battling injuries, Vernon Hargreaves has regressed, Jameis Winston has a shoulder injury. The thing about Winston has always been the following: He has a great arm and can make outstanding throws, but it’s rare. His accuracy is terrible, especially on deep balls in the Bucs’ vertical passing game. He consistently has mental mistakes, throwing the ball straight into triple coverage. Combined with his injury, his play has been atrocious lately. Did you hear his team speech last week? It was a clowns show. Here comes the (Fitz-)magic: Ryan Fitzpatrick is NOT a downgrade from Winston at this point. He is rather an upgrade because Koetter has to alter the Bucs offensive style as Fitz cannot throw deep. Fitzpatrick throwing to TEs and RBs underneath with DeSean drawing deep coverage is a better idea than a banged up Winston throwing deep. They are missing Mike Evans but I don’t really care. They don’t need him to win this game. Bucs will bring everything on Sunday to support Fitzpatrick vs his former team. | |||||||
11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys OVER 52.5 | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Zeke is back in and the Cowboys get a national spotlight game at Jerry World. I see some explosive offense happening on both sides of the ball here today. Two great QB's, two great RB's, two great WR's, two great TE's. However there are still question marks on both D's. This one has shootout written all over it. Over 52.5 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 11 m | Show |
I get the feeling that the Redskins are having one of the most brutal stretches right now. They are decimated with injuries and get to face the Hawks, Vikes off bye and the Saints. Every good passing defense is a tough matchup for the Skins and right now they play with a banged up offensive line and travel across the country to play at Seattle. The Redskins don’t have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, they don’t have a bye to prepare and they don’t have a magic dual threat QB. They got a mediocre Kirk Cousins behind a banged up offensive line. Trent Williams will be out, Spencer Long and Brandon Scherff didn’t practice. Swing tackle Ty Nsekhe didn’t practice. Jordan Reed is 99% out. Jamison Crowder didn’t practice. Zach Brown didn’t practice. The injury report looks even more concerning than last week for the Skins. We can’t talk about metrics here because of how banged up they are. Redskins offense cannot move the ball at Seattle. It would be completely surprising to me if they scored more than 14-17 offensive points. Seattle is going to win in the trenches easily. Cousins could be picked twice and sacked five times. The Hawks offense is weird. Their play calling is reactive to the opponent and score. If the score is tight and it’s early in the quarter, they are very predictable, trying to run with a non-existing run game. Chasing a score or before half time they go crazy with play action and vertical routes. Getting Duane Brown doesn’t fix their OL or running game but it helps Wilson processing in the pocket because he doesn’t have to account for both tackles getting beaten at the snap. The passing game should improve. The Skins defense isn’t great and they also have some injuries to deal with. The Hawks shouldn’t be forced to chase a score here. They will try to get their run game going or surprise us and put the game on ice as early as possible with a TNF game on deck. I expect them to use Jimmy Graham early and often as the Skins can’t defend TE's at all. All in all they should have enough on offense and defense to beat a mediocre and banged up Skins team by more than a TD at home. Play is on the Hawks. Seeing a 27-14 kind of game. Seattle Seahawks -7 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
I have the home side favoured by my count, yet we are getting a full field goal of dog points. I cannot expect the Cardinals to score many points with Drew Stanton. Stanton has a TD pass in only 5 of 9 career starts and Arians always tried to limit his impact. With a good running game that approach would be clever, but the Cards struggle there too. Peterson had one good game and hasn't shown he can carry the load otherwise. There is no threat going from this offense. The Niners who will be very motivated after their recent trade for a franchise QB (not playing), will have their best chance to win a game this year, however I'll play it safe with the field goal points. 49ers +3 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 57 m | Show |
I view the Saints as -8 favorites here and thanks to some huge sharp action, this line has come down to -6.5 over Thursday. I disagree with that line and don’t see legitimate reasons for such a huge exposure on the Bucs. The Saints have a strong and dominant offense, good pass defense. These are key factors to win a lot of games and to win a lot of games by more than one possession. The Saints offense vs the Bucs defense might be the best matchup on the board this week, equal to Houston vs Indy. By metrics, the pass-heavy Bucs still have one of the better passing offenses in the NFL, but Jameis Winston is not right and they face a really good passing defense. This game is about game script. The Bucs could be successful if they go run-heavy with Doug Martin and the Saints don’t get ahead. But I see this game being played out as the Saints scoring early and then go into their lovely run-mode in the second half to see what Jameis does with a banged up shoulder against their pass defense. If the Saints score early and often against a terrible defense, they cover -6.5 here and that’s what I lean. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | |||||||
11-05-17 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 45 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
Houston we have a problem. The unfortunate mid-week news about Deshaun Watson tearing his ACL has Houston scrambling. They'll turn the reigns over to Tom Savage who was absolutely brutal in his Week 1 start. Change is never good at the QB position when we are talking about scoring points. It always takes time to acclimate and you'll see that today. On the other side of the ball, the Colts are still without Andrew Luck and nothing is coming easy for them offensively. I see an ugly game on both sides. Under 45 | |||||||
10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I suspect most people's first instinct would be lean on the Over in tonight's Monday night matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. The Chiefs are certainly capable of scoring a lot of points (#2 in Y/GM gained) and at the same time their defense has given up an average of 23 points a game this season (30th Y/GM given up). However a deeper dive is needed to know what's really going on. Their first two games were against the Patriots and the Eagles, largely considered the two best offenses in the league right now, giving up 27 and 20 respectively. They then played a very mediocre offensive team in the L.A. Chargers and held them to 10 points while scoring over 24 themselves. Their next two games were played against two more high powered offenses in the Redskins and Texans allowing 20 and 34 respectively. They then played the a motivated Steelers team holding them to 19 and then last week against the Raiders they allowed 31. So what are the scoring/defensive patterns this all amounts to? In my opinion they are clearly able to score on bad defenses and engage in shootouts if needed. But against any good to quality defenses the games turn into ball control and clock management. The Broncos come into this game with the #1 overall defense in the NFL (258.5 yards per game) and rank in the top 10 in both run and pass defense. Better yet they've lost two straight games and have allowed over 220 yards total on the ground in those matchups which means they'll be super pumped up to bring their A game tonight on National TV. They also get Shane Ray back which is a huge boost to their D. Looking at their offense, we all know ever since Peyton Manning retired this isn't the same explosive offense we are used to (32 total points scored in last 4 games), despite the same offensive weapons. Speaking to that, wideout Emmanuel Sanders is questionable which would leave Marcus Peters to shadow Demaryius Thomas the whole night. I see this game being very low scoring. I foresee the Chiefs sitting on an early lead and burning the clock with Kareem Hunt, and the Broncos D playing well enough to force some punts. Why risk interceptions in the air against a dangerous pass defense if you know the other team can't score? The Broncos are not capable of getting in a shootout with anybody so they'll focus on the run, turn overs, and special teams. Under 42.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 75 h 38 m | Show |
I know Steelers -2.5 looks super square here, but the line is more than fair. When seeing a square road fav line I always ask if I would take the team at that price at home, switching points for Home for Away. Steelers would be -8.5/-9 at home and that’s still a reasonable line. Big Ben seems to be back. He threw some nice passes into tight windows against Cincy and didn’t hesitate at any throw. His deep pass is still an issue but with Bell being back to his form that’s not a big deal. The Steelers are at the top of my Power Rating, offense is loaded and defense is playing really good. Steelers top all the efficiency metrics. This is a boys vs men kind of game to me. After media doubted the Steelers, this is another huge statement game for them saying “We are here” on prime time. From a matchup standpoint, I don't see how the Lions prevail here other than by turnovers or weird flags. The Lions offense is non-existent. They rank 30th in yards per play at 4.6. The only offenses worse are Miami and Baltimore. Lions can’t run the ball and can’t consistently move the ball from the pocket. Stafford is at his best when the play breaks down, but that’s not sustainable. This isn’t enough to beat the Steelers. The Lions need to rely on the pass (probably without Golden Tate) against a good passing defense with a strong pass rush that ranks 3rd in adjusted sack rate. Against other top-10 defenses in sack rate, Minnesota and Carolina, the Lions struggled to move the ball through the air. LT Greg Robinson is bad but he might not play so expect his replacement to be even worse against young freak TJ Watt. Don't be fooled by the Lions coming off a bye, they are the clear worse team in this matchup. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Chargers +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 67 h 0 m | Show |
The Chargers overcame early season struggles and are finally playing up to their potential. Lynn finally involves Henry at 80%+ snaps and the offense got more effective. Hightower being out is a huge blow for an already bad Pats defense. They can’t cover TE's and that’s where Henry is the key for the Chargers this week as they should be successful through the air and put up points. Chargers D is playing conservative and disciplined, playing a lot of zone behind a strong pass rush by their D-line and they defend TE's very well. I expect the Pats to go run heavy here because they like to attack weaknesses and they want to keep their D sidelined. However, I think the Chargers are able to pull the upset in this one as the Pats have too many issues on their D and the Chargers D has been capable of keeping games close. The highest scoring amount they gave up was 26 to Philly. Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Falcons -4.5 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 67 h 57 m | Show |
As bad as the Falcons offense looked the last two weeks, it’s hard to believe they put up another shit show this week. Sarkisian got officially counted on, he has to change something, otherwise he will be sacked next Monday. Atlanta comes off an embarrassing prime time loss in a game everyone expected them to play like real men to get Super Bowl revenge. They failed. This is a perfect spot to put all their frustrations on the lowly Jets who have been overperforming when it comes to their record. The Jets have played an easy schedule in terms of efficiency metrics and teams being in bad spots: survived the 0-7 Browns in a magic game, blew a lead to the Jags off London to barely win in OT, blew a 14pt lead to NE (would have been a quality win though) and blew a 14pt lead to the Fins. This team has benefited from an easy schedule and I expect them to regress in terms of scores. They have a shot at losing all their remaining games from now on. In terms of metrics they rank bottom-10 across the board despite their schedule. Their defense isn't much better, all above middle of the pack averages. This is a team waiting to get beaten by the better teams in the league. Remember what a solid Raiders offense did to them. If the Falcons jump a lead which has much better chances than Jets jumping a lead, the running game gets negated to some margin in the second half which leads to McCown spreading the ball and that smells some turnovers. If Sarkisian gets his head straight, Falcons should win a 31-17 kind of game at New York. Atlanta Falcons -4.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Bears +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
I know that it looks intriguing to go with the hot Saints in their Superdome against a team that won by defensive scores recently. However, this isn’t a good matchup for the Saints. Whereas their pass defense has been playing on an extremely high level since week 2, their big and probably only weakness is defending the run and the pass to RBs. And that’s where the Bears present the perfect matchup. Chicago wants to run the ball (2nd-highest percentage in the league) with slow pace, no matter if they are playing with a lead or trailing. The Saints run D ranks 30th in yards per carry. The Saints also have allowed the 5th-most receptions to RB's. This is a great matchup for the Bears who are going to attack the ground and the short field with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen all game long. They are going to slow the game down and keep themselves in winnable situations all the way. They don’t play to get blown out. On defense, they rarely get beaten by big plays. They play the pass very well and force the opponent to beat them on the ground or by short passes. This all sums up to a low scoring game which plays to the Bears strengths on running the football. Chicago Bears +9.5 | |||||||
10-29-17 | Vikings -9.5 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
The Vikings look to win their fourth straight game and put a strangle hold on the NFC North when they face the winless Browns on Sunday at London’s Twickenham Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings have found a way to win despite who plays QB, meanwhile the Cleveland Browns continue to flip flop at the helm and can't find any consistency behind center. The Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards to rank fourth in the league in total defense. Minnesota gave up a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Now they get a shot at rookie Deshone Kizer who gets another starting chance after getting pulled and then finding himself in hot water over the late night video which surfaced last week. The Vikings also get WR Diggs back this week which should actually help their run game, forcing the Browns secondary to play soft coverage. To make matters worse for the Browns, they lose both Myles Garrett to concussion protocol and All-Pro OL Joe Thomas who's been a rock for them for years now. Browns are 7-25-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall and Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on field turf. Note not win/loss, against the spread. Hard to imagine, but true. Minnesota Vikings -9.5 | |||||||
10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
This is a phenomenal buy low spot to take the Ravens. Baltimore is the home side with a strong defense on a short week against a team that is getting overpriced. The Fins have more wins than I thought they would have, but each one occured by one possession. They are a bottom three team on average by all significant metrics. They are a 2-4 team by metrics but they somehow sneaked to 4-2. Now they travel to Baltimore on a short week with a QB change. I am low on Matt Moore and there is a reason Adam Gase went with Cutler out of retirement instead of Moore. Moore consistently tries to throw games away. Last season he got away with fluky wins before exploding vs Steelers in the playoffs. The Ravens defense is really good. Their pass defense ranks 5th in DVOA and their run defense is expected to improve because their best run defender Brandon Williams was out for 4 games. At their home turf, they are going to make the job of Matt Moore and a harmless Dolphins offense who got some injuries very hard and should create turnovers. The Dolphins run offense is averaging 3.3 YPC, good for 30th in the league and 0.8 YPC below average. I don’t see how they do anything tonight. On the flip side, the Ravens offense has knowingly struggele. However, the Ravens have a better offensive matchup than the Dolphins vice versa. The Ravens offense also faced one of the toughest schedules this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Ravens scoring in the 24-27 range along with a defensive score. That should be enough to cover because the defense will take care of the rest. I like the Ravens to cover -3 here vs the Dolphins. Baltimore Ravens -3 | |||||||
10-23-17 | Redskins +199 v. Eagles | 24-34 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
At nearly +200, there is certainly value here to side with the visiting Redskins to score the upset on Monday Night Football. Fairly evenly matched teams, I really feel anything could happen in this tilt. Unfortunately Josh Norman is out for Skins which severely hurts their secondary, but the majority of their team is intact otherwise. If the Skins can neutralize the Wentz/Ertz combo and force them to run or attempt some risky passes, the Skins will have opportunities. Don't forget Washington has their own set of TE weapons and it's also only a matter of time before Crowder and Pryor Sr. really have a break out game. The NFL is anything but predictable. Washington moneyline | |||||||
10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 57 m | Show |
Super Bowl revenge! This isn’t the same Pats team most are used to seeing, especially on defense. The regression is obvious for the Falcons offense (int's & tipped int's) this year but they are still very efficient. They ran very well vs the Pats in the SB and this time they get an even worse Pats defense. Falcons should run all day and the Pats don’t have the CB's to match up well with Julio, Sanu and Gabriel. They are also giving up the 2nd most receptions and most yards to RB's, which is certainly a bad matchup vs Atlanta due to their two header monster backfield in Freeman and Coleman. The Falcons can use their full arsenal of weapons and should move the ball all day long. If they get a key stop more on offense, this 3.5 line should hit. Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Cowboys v. 49ers +6 | Top | 40-10 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
I think this line is too high for the Cowboys even though I think they will look better during the next few weeks. CJ Beathard definitely looks quite a bit better than Brian Hoyer. His peak plays were good last week. Cowboys defense gives up tons of points, that’s why their overall scoring differential is just +1 on the season so far. Niners finally return home after a tough road stretch and even though Dallas comes off their bye, I don’t see this line to be justified. Niners didn’t get blown out since Week 1 and always hung tough. Kyle Shanahan keeps pressing the gas pedal until the last minute and even though they don’t have a competitive roster yet, they always provide you with backdoor chances. Home game, nothing to lose, new QB, one of the better run defenses who get Foster back – I really like the six points here. San Francisco 49ers +6 | |||||||
10-22-17 | Bucs v. Bills -150 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
I love the Bills here against either Ryan Fintzpatrick or a banged up Jameis Winston. Bills are playing decent defense, especially at home where they tend to be even better. Defensive line is gonna have a good matchup vs the Bucs offense and the Bills offense should run all over them. Bills tried a new outside zone style with their new OC but it didn’t work out. Over the last few games they already reverted back to inside zone and power running and over the bye week they should have figured it out. LeSean McCoy will have a big game and the Bills defense should take care for the rest. The Bills offense ranks terribly, but they started the season with the wrong run scheme and played the No. 1 schedule both in YPP and NYPPA. Their defense ranks high but they also played a top-10 schedule in YPP and NYPPA. Their YPP & NYPPA differentials schedules rank No. 1 in the league. With CAR, DEN, ATL & CIN they arguably played the toughest schedule since week 2 and now get a Bucs team on their 2nd straight road game with a look-ahead to Carolina and with a QB who got a banged up throwing shoulder. I'll take the Buffalo Bills on the short moneyline here on Sunday. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |