Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-28-19 | Indians +112 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Astros won 4-3 yesterday, but I like the Tribe to respond in the finale of this three game set. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 1-2 with a 3.58 ERA. Miley most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Twins. A date vs. the Indians is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Carlos Carrasco, who is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA thus far. Carrasco left his last start after four scoreless innings vs. the Fish because of a knee issue, but he’s been given the green light to go here today. Note that Carrasco has now not given up a run in his last 11 innings of work. Also note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA with nine walks and 55 K’s in seven starts vs. Houston. Look for Carrasco to continue his dominance in this series. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Cleveland. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL TRADE MARK) Golden State struggled with offensive consistency vs. the Clippers at times in the first round, but I think it’ll have the foot on the gas in Game 1 vs. the Rockets. And for Houston it’s an opportunity to finish some unfinished business. The Rockets had a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Warriors last year, but an injury to guard Chris Paul in Game 5 saw the Rockets then go on to lose three straight. The Rockets scored only 89 points per game over those last two games, so clearly they’ll be out to send a message as well. The stage is now set for an epic battle and I expect that to translate into a high-scoring blowout. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 127-120 Warriors. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hurricanes/Islanders over (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) Carolina managed a 1-0 win in double OT in Game 1. I was shocked by the energy levels of Carolina after its gruelling seven game series victory over the Capitals. I was also surprised by the lack of energy from the Isles after they steamrolled the Penguins in their first round series. New York was better at home than on the road, so a return to the norm is in order in my opinion. You can’t have a lower-scoring game than what we saw in Game 1, but I expect Game 2 to be a much more wide open offensive affair. And the numbers support our theory, as note that Carolina has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine after a three-game unbeaten streak, while New York has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six after scoring one goal or less in a home loss in its previous game. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Isles. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 121 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Bucks. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets under (10* BLACK-LABEL) I had a play on the “over” in Game 6, but I believe that Game 7 sets up as a defensive affair. These are in fact two of the better defensive clubs in the Western Conference and with so much on the line, I’m expecting each to double down on that end of the court. This has been a back and forth series, with each side looking great at times and very poor in others. The numbers/trends however support our theory though, as note that SA has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 this year after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Denver has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 this season in trying got revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 100-95 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Blue Jackets +125 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 125 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Columbus Blue Jackets (10* TRADE-MARK) I had a play on Columbus in Game 1. Boston jumped out to an early lead, but Columbus scored two goals late and looked as if it would pull off the upset, but the Bruins managed a late goal in regulation and then they’d go on to win in extra time. After going needing seven games to take care of the Leafs, Boston’s energy was frankly shocking to me. I thought Columbus would benefit greatly from a few extra days off, but it in fact had the opposite effect, leading to rust it would take the Blue Jackets until the third period to really “wake up.” Boston though looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion. Columbus though has shaken off the rust and offers great value in the underdog role. I’m banking on the “fresher” team securing the split. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Blue Jackets. | |||||||
04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (8* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams did well in the first round. Each lost their respective first games, but then recover to sweep the next four. The 76ers averaged 122.4 points and allowed 111.4 vs. the Nets and they are led by Joel Embiid with 24.8 points and 13.5 boards per game. Embiid is going to have his hands full with veteran Raptors big men Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Toronto has to be feeling confident here as well as it took three of four in the regular season series. Toronto averaged 106.4 PPG in the win over the Nets, while allowing only 92. Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 19-24 ATS on the road this year and only 8-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more, while Toronto is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after a covers as a double digit favorite. This is a bad matchup for Embiid and company. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-107 Raptors. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Rockies +112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 112 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockies (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Braves’ Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a career campaign, but this will be his first start of the season after starting on the IL. He faces a difficult opponent and counterpart as well in Jon Gray. Note that in eight career stars vs. the Rockies Foltynewicz is 0-4 with a 4.100 ERA, giving up 20 runs off 34 hits over 35 frames opposed. And that’s bad news overall for a Braves team which has lost three of its last four. Gray is 2-1 this year, given yup only two runs over 19 2/3’s innings of work. Note that in five career outings vs. the Braves Gray is 3-0 with a tiny 1.64 ERA with 38 K’s over 33 innings of work. Great value on the visitors here. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rockies. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Cards over (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Reds steamrolled the Cardinals 12-1 in yesterday’s series opener and while I’m expecting a more competitive affair this time around, I do think that the final combined score will be similar. The Cards hand the ball to Dakota Hudson, who is 1-1 with a 5.89 ERA and who gave up three runs off five hits with two walks. All three runs given up were solo home runs, so Hudson was clearly “lucky” to earn the victory in that one. The rookie right-hander has now allowed eight home runs over 18.1 innings. The visitors counter with Tyler Mahle (0-2, 3.52) who gave up four runs off seven hits with no walks while striking out nine over six innings in a loss to the Padres on Sunday. Mahle for the most part has been solid, but note that he was just 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road last year. I think these starters get chased early. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Cards. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Yankees v. Giants +104 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Francisco Giants (10* TOP SIDE) This is a good pitching matchup, but I think the home side will find a way to deliver the goods vs. the still banged up Yankees. For arguments sakes, lets call the pitchers a “wash.” John Paxton is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA for the Yanks, while Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA for San Francisco. The late night West coast game favors the Giants at home anyways, but the National League format won’t be doing Paxton any favors tonight either. New York is just 36-46 (-11.2 units) on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while the Giants are 4-1 in their last five after two or more straight victories. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Giants. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 103 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Dodgers over (9* TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been scuffling behind struggling offenses. I think that changes tonight. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs over 5 2/3’s innings while throwing a season-high 92 pitches vs. the Brewers on Saturday. The two runs he allowed were both solo home runs, so Ryu was likely a bit “lucky” in that one. I think the veterans early numbers are unsustainable and a correction is about to happen here. The visitors counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA and he returns from a five game suspension after throwing behind a batter. Despite their recent drop off at the plate, the Dodgers still lead the NL in runs scored with 146. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Dodgers. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Avalanche +125 v. Sharks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 38 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Avalanche (10* MONEY-MAKER). With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched. If this year’s playoffs (both the NHL and in the NBA) have shown us, parity is pretty rampant at the moment. The Avs looked great in extinguishing the Flames in five games and they come in rested and focused on the task at hand. They also play with triple revenge after losing all three regular season games vs. the Sharks. San Jose is likely the “better” team, but it’s “dog tired” after its epic come from behind series win over Las Vegas. This one has “upset” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Avs. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Clippers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I was expecting a more competitive, lower-scoring battle in Game 5. That didn’t hold true though, as LA jumped out to an early big lead and then didn’t let up, keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Clippers needed a similar effort in their upset win in Game 2 as well. Game 3 at home saw them come out an “lay an egg” though. Offensive consistency from game-to-game has plagued the Clippers at times in this series. I think the Warriors double down defensively here as they look to end it tonight. Note that Golden State has seen the total go under in 15 of 22 this year after allowing 120 points or more, while LA has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten off an upset win as a road dog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 119-110 Warriors. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 33 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Canes/Isles under (10* SUPER TOTAL) Isles’ goaltender Robin Lehner comes in with the best save percentage after the first round. The Islanders steam rolled the Penguins and I think they’ll control the tempo in Game 1 as well vs. a Hurricanes team which comes in off an impressive seven game series win over the defending champs. Carolina managed a win in Game 7, but it lost the other three in the nation’s capital and offensive consistency was a big reason why. A fatigued and satisfied Carolina side will double down defensively in Game 1 in my estimation. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Note though that Carolina has in fact seen the total go under in six of its last eight after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while New York has seen the total go under in 11 of 14 this season after a three-game unbeaten streak. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Isles. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Stars v. Blues UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Stars/Blues under (10* TOTAL TRADE-MARK) A red hot veteran goaltender in Dallas goes head to head with a red hot rookie net minder in St. Louis in Round 2 of the Stanley Cup playoffs. These are two of the most defensive-minded clubs in the league, backed by two of the best goaltenders. Jordan Binnington of St. Louis finished with a 2.63 GAA and a .908 save percentage in Round 1. Overall during the regular season he posted a league league 1.89 GAA. The Blues Ben Bishop owns a .945 save percentage and a 1.89 GAA after the first round of the playoffs. During the regular season he posted a .934 save percentage and a 1.98 GAA and seven shutouts. This one has “goaltenders battle” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Blues. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Spurs over (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) It’s a BIG game between the Nuggets and the Spurs in Game 6 in San Antonio. Both teams have looked great in this series and each has looked poor as well. With their backs against the wall though, I think the Spurs offer great value to extend this series to a decisive Game 7. The Spurs have been better at home all year than on the road and that matters here. So does the veteran leadership that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich brings to the table. Denver has exceeded expectations this season, but it definitely struggled with consistency down the stretch. If you’ve seen my “Free Play” on this game, then you know I like the Spurs. San Antonio can’t let Denver dictate the pace of this one obviously and expect to win. With the home side pushing the pace from start to finish, I believe this total will indeed fly over sooner, rather than later. Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of seven this year after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 13 this year after a road loss by ten or more points. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-114 Spurs. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Tigers +176 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the Tigers offer great value to bounce back after yesterday’s 11-4 loss vs. what I feel to be the over-priced Red Sox. Detroit took both games in a double-header the day prior. The home side hands the ball to the volatile Rick Porcello, who is 0-3 with an 8.47 ERA. He’ll square off against Jordan Zimmermann, who is 0-3 with a 4.94 ERA. I’m not reading too much into Boston’s offensive explosion yesterday, as this is a team which has struggled mightily with consistency at the plate all season. Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is on a ten-game hitting streak. Boston is over priced, considering the form of Porcello right now. Play on the Tigers. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Tigers. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Blue Jackets +137 v. Bruins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blue Jackets (10* MA$$ACRE) For very obvious reasons, I like Columbus to “steal” Game 1. The Blue Jackets steam rolled the Tampa Bay Lightning in four games and have been resting and preparing for this series. The Bruins were pushed to the brink and needed a Game 7 to take care of Toronto. Boston is tired and banged up, while Columbus is full of energy and healthy. Both teams feature great goaltending, plenty of scoring depth and experience. The difference for me is the extra time for Columbus. The series sweep over TB can’t be taken lightly either. “Momentum” is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports and especially in the playoffs. But the fact of the matter is, Columbus has been playing fantastic hockey for well over a month now. Expect the visitors to make the most of this one. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Jackets. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) After slow starts, both Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke and the Pirates’ Jameson Taillon have looked a lot better over their last few starts, but I think they’re going to get the hook early here. The Diamondbacks are looking for a sweep of the Pirates and come in off an impressive 11-4 offensive victory last night. The Pirates though enter desperate after four straight losses. The numbers support our theory as well, as note that Arizona has seen the total eclipse the number in eight of 12 already this year vs. teams with winning records, while Pittsburgh has still seen the total soar over in five of its last six as a home favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -107 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors under (10* TRADE-MARK) LA came from behind to knock off the Warriors in Game 2, but other than that it’s been all Golden State in this series. The Clippers can obviously ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the sharp-shooting Warriors, instead the visitors are going to have to try and muscle their way to another victory here. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring “shootout.” A great situational play, but also note that the Clippers have seen the total go under in 19 of 30 as a road underdog tho shear, while GS has seen the total go under in eight of its last 11 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 213 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Jazz/Rockets over (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Utah looked down and out, but it somehow managed to post a convincing win at home in Game 4 to prolong this series one more game. The Jazz have a sliver of hope now, but they’ll have to keep the foot on the gas, as the last thing the Rockets can do is let another one slip away and then head back to Utah for a dangerous Game 6. Houston will need to push the pace from the outset and with the visiting needing to match pace, I expect Game 5 to finally be a wide open shootout. And the trends support that hypothesis, as note that the Jazz have seen the total go over the number in three of its last four when facing elimination in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total sail over in seven of its last eight in revering a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 118-110 Rockets. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Hurricanes +127 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 127 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hurricanes (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Capitals run ends here. Trends were made to be broken and I look for the Hurricanes to indeed by the first team to break through and win on the road in this series. Carolina averages 2.8 GPG and it allows 2.8 as well. The Capitals have averaged 2.8 GPG in the playoffs as well, as well as allowing 2.8. These teams are evenly matched. The Hurricanes have the Capitals on the ropes, pushing them to the brink and I like the underdog to come through here. Note as well that Carolina is 21-11 (+6.2 units) this year after a win by two goals or more, while Washington is just 2-5 in its last seven home games following a road loss of three goals or more. I’m calling for the upset! T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Hurricanes. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pirates have lost three straight for the first time this year. Arizona won Game 1 by a score of 12-4, before then taking Tuesday’s contest 2-1. I think we’ll see a much higher-scoring contest in the finale though. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly (1-2, 4.37 ERA) who is making his fifth major league start. He’ll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA. Kelly most recently had 109 pitches over just three innings of work vs. the Cubs last Friday, giving up three runs off six hits while walking seven. Lyles has only allowed one earned run over 17 innings of work, but I think his early unreal numbers are unsustainable. In 19 career games vs. the Diamondbacks, including nine starts, note that Lyles is a poor 2-6 with a 7.23 ERA. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Pirates. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Brewers +102 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Brewers (9* BLACK-LABEL) Enough is enough here. The Brewers have lost the first two games of this series, but i think the visitors will find a way to bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, who is 2-2 with a 5.92 ERA. Chacin won his first two starts of the year, including the season opener vs. St. Louis, giving up three runs with seven K’s over six innings in the 5-4 win. Chacin most recently comes in off a no-decision to the Dodgers on Friday, allowing two runs over five innings. The home side counters with Adam Wainwright, who is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and who has had plenty of success throughout his career against Milwaukee, but who I believe will come up short this afternoon. Wainwright looked very unspectacular in his latest outing against the Mets on Friday, allowing four runs off eight hits with three walks over three innings in the loss. I think the “hungrier” team gets the job done this afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Brewers. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 212 | Top | 90-108 | Loss | -103 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) So far this has been a very evenly matched series as we come into Game 5 all tied at 2-2. The Spurs have averaged 106.8 points and they’ve allowed 108.8 overall this year, while Denver is averaging 108.8 PPG, while allowing 106.8. These are two tough defensive-minded clubs, but I think Game 5 will break the mould and we’ll see a higher-scoring shootout. The Spurs will be out to push the pace after allowing a double-digit lead go to waste last time out. A pivotal/crucial game obviously and one which I expect to be dominated by each team’s underachieving offenses. A great situational play on the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-112 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Nets +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Nets in Game 4 and I lost that play, the only NBA play of the four that I released on the weekend that lost. After winning Game 1 the Nets have faltered as the 76ers have taken three straight. However, with its back against the wall, I like Brooklyn to step up here and get the job done. I also don’t think that the outright win is out of the question. Consistency from game to game has plagued the 76ers all year and while they’ve seemingly gotten it together over the last week, I’m not fully convinced quite yet until I do indeed see them finish the deal. The Nets have admittedly disappointed over the last couple of games, but we don’t have to question their drive in this one. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to deliver the goods. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-115 Nets. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 0-9 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Mets under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Mets took Game 1 by a score of 5-1 on Monday and I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Zack Wheeler is only 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA for the Mets so far this year, but after starting slowly he’s looked much better of late, most recently giving up three runs over seven frames in a 3-2 loss to these very Phillies last Wednesday. Wheeler has to be feeling confident here as he’s 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 11 starts vs. Philadelphia. The visitors go with Zach Eflin, who is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and who most recently gave up three runs over six innings vs. the Rockies on Thursday. Note though that Eflin is just 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets. Note that the Phillies are just 7 of 39 with runners in scoring position over the last five games, which doesn’t bode well facing the ever improving Wheeler. This one has “duel” written all over it. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mets. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Leafs/Bruins under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) I had a play on the “over” in Game 6 (check out that full analysis right here: I’m expecting a wide open offensive affair here. Boston was favored to win this series, but the Leafs have caught fire and they have an opportunity to pull off the big upset right here and now. Boston clearly won’t be going down without a fight though and it’ll be forced to push the pace from the outset. In my opinion, this is going to be a completely wide-open and faster paced battle. So with that in mind and coupled with the fact that Boston has already seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 28 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, with Toronto having also seen the total soar over in five of its last seven home games after holding its previous opponent to two goals or less, the “over” is definitely the correct move in my professional opinion. Game 7 though sets up as more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Both Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask and Toronto net minder Frederik Anderson have plenty of success vs. their respective opponent throughout their careers and with each side not wanting to make a mistake first, I believe the overall situation also lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Bruins. | |||||||
04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Houston has a 3-0 lead. Utah’s playoff run is likely over, as 3-0 hole is going to be just too big to overcoming. The Rockets won Game 1 by a score of 122-90, Game 2 by a score of 118-98 and Game 3 by a score of 104-101. The Rockets have been exceptional defensively so far, meaning that the Jazz’s only chance in this one is to try and break the mould and push the pace. Utah has so far been shutdown offensively, but the numbers support us today in that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in eight of ten this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. I’m finally expecting a competitive, higher-scoring contest in Game 4. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Houston. | |||||||
04-22-19 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Angels under (8* BANKROLL BUILDER). Two starters which have seen better days collide in the opener of this one and while each has struggled mightily to start the season, I think the worm starts to turn today. jA Happ is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA for the Yanks. Happ comes in off his best effort of the year though, allowing three runs while striking out four over seven innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Despite his poor ERA and WHIP, note that Happ still owns a respectable 17:6 K:BB over 18.2 innings of work. His counterpart Matt Harvey is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA. Harvey most recently allowed four runs while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. Harvey was decent for the Reds last year and the veteran will benefit from facing an injured Yanks team, which also just had to put slugger Aaron Judge on the 10 day DL to add to their list of “walking wounded.” Note that New York has seen the total go under in seven of nine vs. teams with losing records, while LA has seen the total go under in six of seven vs. southpaws. I expect these hungry starters to battle deep. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 A’s. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Braves +110 v. Indians | Top | 11-5 | Win | 110 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Indians won Game 1 of yesterday’s double header 8-4 and the Braves then rallied for an 8-7 win in the second. Both of these starters have been great so far and it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either Max Fried (2-0, 0.92 ERA) or Shane Bieber (2-0, 1.71) to come out on top tonight. I think the difference are in the numbers today though, as note that ATL is a perfect 4-0 (+4.4 units) already this year after scoring eight or more runs, while Cleveland is still only 19-23 (-19.5 units) the last two season in inter-league contests. Good value on the Braves and Fried here. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Clippers keep this crucial Game 4 competitive. The outright win isn’t out of the question, but I’ll recommend grabbing the points. After rolling to a 132-105 win in Game 3, I think the Warriors come out flat here. The Clippers know they can’t go back to Golden State down 3-1 and expect to win this series, so with the home side laying everything on the line, I do indeed expect a “nail biter” until the end. The Clippers have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Golden State and they won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. Additionally note that Golden State is still a horrible 16-20 ATS as a road favorite this season, while LA is a solid 16-8 ATS in its last 24 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-117 Warriors. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins/Leafs over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I’m expecting a wide open offensive affair here. Boston was favored to win this series, but the Leafs have caught fire and they have an opportunity to pull off the big upset right here and now. Boston clearly won’t be going down without a fight though and it’ll be forced to push the pace from the outset. In my opinion, this is going to be a completely wide-open and faster paced battle. So with that in mind and coupled with the fact that Boston has already seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 28 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, with Toronto having also seen the total soar over in five of its last seven home games after holding its previous opponent to two goals or less, the “over” is definitely the correct move in my professional opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Leafs. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Pacers over (10* TRADE-MARK) Not surprisingly, this has been a low-scoring defensive series. I think the narrative changes here though as I look for the home side to push the pace here from the outset as it looks to stave off elimination. The Celtics have a 3-0 lead after their 104-96 Game 3 win, but clearly they’ll have their hands full here vs. this desperate home side. Note that Boston has had to rally in the second half in all three games to earn the victory. I think Indiana once again pushes the pace, but this time for a full four quarters. A faster paced game will lead to more shots and more shots will lead to more points. Additionally note that Boston has seen the total go over in 11 of 15 this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Indiana has seen the total soar over in four of its last six as a home underdog. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Boston. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 59 h 5 m | Show |
.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Jazz have their backs against the wall. The Rockets have a 2-0 lead and if Utah has any hopes whatsoever of getting back into this series, it’s going to have to lean on its strengths. What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Jazz? For me its hard nosed defense. Clearly the Jazz can’t turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with James Harden and company. Instead Utah is going to be playing a half to full court defense from start to finish. It’ll also be out to control the tempo while on offense. Additionally note that Houston’s already seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as a road underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip under in nine of its last 14 after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The situation and numbers both point to the under as the correct call. T.M. Prediction: 107-103 Jazz. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Red Sox +136 v. Rays | Top | 6-5 | Win | 136 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* BLACK-LABEL) Boston took the opener of this three game set last night and I think the hungry visiting side offers great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (0-3, 11.12 ERA) who fortunately can only go one way his performance. Boston has yet to even win a series this year though, so with a victory tonight it’ll accomplish that feat finally. Porcello has struggled, but the veteran is still 14-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 28 starts vs. the Rays. Charlie Morton (2-0, 2.18) has been exception so far for the Rays and it’s difficult to point out to many negative things about the veteran, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Note as well that Boston is 34-29 (+16.3 units) in its last 63 as a road underdog, while TB is just 34-35 (-10.3 units) in its last 69 as a home favorite in the -105 to -150 range. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Stars v. Predators OVER 5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Over Stars/Predators (10* O/U TRADE-MARK). It’s a big game. Neither team has been able to assert itself as we head into Game 5 tied at 2-2. So far this series has been dominated by strong defensive play and exceptional goaltending. However each team also plenty of offensive talent (note that Stars Alexander Radulov has 20 shots on goals, while John Klingberg has five assists. PK Subban has 14 shots on goal for the Predators. I think the narrative gets turned in this series in Game 5; play the over. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Predators. | |||||||
04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +3 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Nets came out and took Game 1 quite easily, but since then it’s been all Philadelphia, coming off back-to-back blowout victories, including Game 3 in Brooklyn. It’s now time for the Nets to respond in this crucial situation, as 3-1 hole heading back to Philadelphia is clearly not ideal. Brooklyn does have the depth to hang with the 76ers, but the Nets have struggled with consistency at times over the last two games. But I think that changes in Game 4, and the numbers support that, as note that Philadelphia is just 4-10 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less this year and only 1-6 ATS off a road win by ten points or more, while Brooklyn is 15-7 ATS this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Nets. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Reds +142 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 142 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the Reds in their upset win over the Padres last night and I think they offer great value to do it again here. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA so far. DeSclafani most recently gave up four runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Cards. Last year he had a respectable 4.18 ERA on the road. Fortunately for DeSclafani, he won’t have to pitch very well to produce his best effort of the season. He also benefits facing the Friars’ Matt Strahm (0-2, 4.26) who comes in off a decent effort vs. the D-Backs, allowing no runs over five innings of work. Strahm lost his first two starts and the book is still out at this point as far as I’m concerned. I give the small nod to DeSclafani here and I like the Reds to build off their win from last night. Overall great value vs. a Padres team which has likely been performing over its head to open the season. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Avalanche +155 v. Flames | Top | 5-1 | Win | 155 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Avalanche (10* TRADE-MARK) The Flames are completely getting avalanched by the Avalanche in this series and with a chance to end it here and now, I think the surging visiting offers great value in the upset role. Colorado has 173 shots on net in this series so far, including 108 in its two wins at home. The Avs have also given up just five goals over 12-plus periods of action. The Flames have been getting spectacular goaltending from Mike Smith, but one has to wonder how much gas the veteran has left in the tank after getting so many shots directed on him at this point? This one has upset written all over it. The Flames have lost 11 of their last 13 playoff games overall and they’ve never overcome a 3-1 series deficit in franchise history. I think that the writing is on the wall. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Avs. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +4.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR) Orlando dominated the second half of the regular season and it came out and accomplished exactly what it wanted to in Toronto to open this series, earning a “split” by handily taking Game 1. The Raptors bounced back in Game 2, but I smell another slight upset in Game 3 as I look for the home side to ride the wave of emotion. Of course the Magic would have loved to have taken both games from the Raptors, but that’s not realistic. A split was the goal and with that goal having already been accomplished after the first game, the Magic took the foot off the gas in Game 2. It’ll be full speed ahead though in Game 3. These teams are evenly matched, but I think the home floor advantage is significant here. Note as well that Toronto is a terrible 11-14 ATS this season as a road favorite, while Orlando is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Magic. | |||||||
04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | 132-105 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (9* BANKROLL BUILDER). With DeMarcus Cousins sidelined with injury for the rest of the year and coming off one of the biggest upset losses in NBA playoff history, I think the Warriors are more susceptible than ever right now. Clearly the Clippers have the firepower and heart to hand with Golden State, so the big question is, will LA have a predictable letdown here after that epic win? In my opinion, the answer is no. It was a big victory, but in the end the series is only tied 1-1. Now the Clippers can smell the blood in the water with the injury to Cousins. Outright win? Possible. But in a contest which i see coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-114 Warriors. | |||||||
04-18-19 | Reds +127 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 127 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Reds (10* TRADE-MARK) Reds’ veteran and new-comer Tanner Roark (0-0, 4.30 ERA) comes in off his best outing so far for the Reds, holding the Cards to one run off six hits with a walk and five K’s over 5 1/3’s innings of work. The home side counters with rookie Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.29) who so far has looked exemplary, but whose sample size is clearly too small to make any definite conclusions. I will point out though that Roark has a long history of success vs. the Friars, going 3-1 with a very respectable 2.90 ERA and 0.742 WHIP and .162 opponents’ batting average. Cincinnati has lost five straight, but I think it punches one into the win column here in this favorable matchup. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Reds. | |||||||
04-18-19 | Golden Knights +108 v. Sharks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden Knights (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the Sharks are done. San Jose backed its way into the playoffs, but it took Game 1 by a score of 4-0. Since then though the Knights have outscored the Sharks 16-6. Las Vegas veteran Marc Andre Fleury is now 3-1-0 and he comes in with a ton of confidence after posting the shutout. San Jose had been sliding for many weeks previous to this, while Las Vegas had been surging to end the regular season. These trends have clearly carried over into the playoffs. Look for the visitors lay it all on the line as they close out the Sharks in the playoffs for a second straight year. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Knights. | |||||||
04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Nets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) Game 1 went under. Game 2 went way over in the 76ers blowout victory. In Game 3 I’m anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle. Brooklyn will have to get back to basics here if it has any shot at pulling off another upset. The Nets looked stout in their 103-92 Game 1 victory, but they fell apart in the second half of Game 2, ultimately falling 145-123. I think both teams come in “gassed” here. Note as well that Philly has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when playing with two days rest and in 14 of 22 this season after a victory by ten points or more, while Brooklyn has seen the total dip under in ten of 16 this year when playing with two days rest. All signs point to a more methodical pace. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-107 76ers. | |||||||
04-18-19 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Tigers over (8* TOTAL SLUG-FEST) The White Sox come to town off a 4-3, ten-inning loss to KC last night, one which featured a benches-clearing brawl. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Chicago. Keep your eyes on White Sox short-stop Tim Anderson, who has a .424 average with four home runs and 12 RBIs. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, who is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Nova has struggled against the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 5.36 ERA in eight career match ups. The Tigers enter desperate to break a five-game losing streak, losing to Pittsburgh in extra innings for a second consecutive night. The home side counters with Tyson Ross (1-2, 3.50) who gave up four runs off five hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday (was the second time in three starts that Ross has walked at least four batters.) This one screams “slugfest” in my opinion as I expect each of these “on again, off again” starters to get chased early by these two hungry clubs. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Tigers. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 211 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pistons/Bucks over (9* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pistons got blown out by 35 points in Game 1 and they’ll be without star player Blake Griffin for the rest of the playoffs. The future doesn’t look bright over the short-term if you’re a Detroit fan obviously, but if the visitors have any shot whatsoever at avoiding an 0-2 hole, they’re going to have to get out and match pace with the home side, which can clearly smell the blood in the water. What better way to completely demoralize a team before it heads back home for its portion of a playoff series? Completely destroy it. I expect no mercy from the home side here as it keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. This one has “shootout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 130-115 Bucks. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Bruins +109 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 6-4 | Win | 109 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Bruins (10* MONEY MAKER) The playoffs are all about making adjustments. Same thing for handicapping a series. Whatever preconceived notion you may have had going in, if it doesn’t happen to pan out the way you originally thought, making adjustments and attacking the following games accordingly is what it’s all about. I thought Boston would steam roll the Leafs, but Toronto has definitely surprised me to this point. However, I think that Boston will calmly turn the page after the Game 3 loss and get back on track with a victory here. Note that the Bruins are still 5-2 in their last seven on the road, while the Leafs are only 2-5 in their last seven at home. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Bruins. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two defensive minded clubs collide on Wednesday night. Boston took Game 1 by a score of 84-74, but I’m anticipating a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Indiana can’t rely on its strength and sit back and hope to grind this series out. The Celtics are equally as capable at playing that style of game, yet they’re better on the offensive end. If Indiana has any shot at taking this series, it’s going to have to find a way to score. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on that end of the floor tonight, I’m expecting a much faster paced game in Game 2. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 110-106 Boston. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Red Sox +106 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Red Sox (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks scored the 8-0 win in the first game of this mini two-game series between these AL East foes, but I think the scuffling Red Sox will bounce back here and find a way to deliver the goods tonight. Boston’s 6-12 start is its worst since 1996. But I think this is a great spot to bounce back in. The Yankees are still majority banged up and I think that’s a factor here. The home side goes with JA Happ, who is 0-2 with an 8.76 ERA, most recently allowing six runs off nine hits over four innings to the light-hitting White Sox on Friday. Boston turns to Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 8.40), who also comes in struggling, most recently giving up five runs to the Jays on Thursday. Both pitchers have had success vs. their respective opponent today, so that area is a “wash.” Note though that Boston is 34-28 (+17.3 units) the last two seasons as a road dog of +100 or higher. Additionally note that New York is a poor 1-3 (-5.7 units) already this year after a win by four runs of more. I’m banking on Boston bouncing back. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Red Sox. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Indians -101 v. Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Indians (10* BLACK-LABEL) The Tribe welcomed back Jason Kipnis and he made a big impact in last night’s 6-4 win. Cleveland won’t be lacking for motivation here after its poor start. The Mariners though look poised to go on a run of mediocrity after their hot start. The home side goes with Shane Bieber, who is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. Bieber is now 8-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his entire career on the road after a 4-0 win over the Tigers on Thursday. The home side goes with Mike Leake, who is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Leake gave up three home runs in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Thursday. I like the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done here. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Tribe. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 57 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* GAME OF WEEK) After three straight wins, I think the Spurs have a letdown here. San Antonio scored the major upset in Game 1 and with the “split” accomplished, I think that the Spurs predictably come up short here (just like the Nets did last night in their blowout loss to the 76ers!) It’s an identical situation. The 76ers had a great overall year, yet it would have basically all gone to waste if it didn’t buckle down and take care of business in Game 2. And now that’s exactly the same situation that the Nuggets find themselves in. San Antonio is still just 11-12 ATS as a road dog this year, while Denver is still 23-16 ATS as a home favorite (also 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two days rest.) Lay the points, expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 112-98 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 82-111 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 22 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (8* BLOWOUT) I had a play on Orlando in its Game 1 upset and while I didn’t call for the outright straight win in Game 1, I’m also not calling for an outright win here either. Rather, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time tonight, I’m going to grab the ample points as I once again expect another tight battle until the end. Note that Orlando won Game 1 despite star big man Nikola Vucevic going only 3 of 11 from the floor. Note that Toronto is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win. Is there any better scenario for Kawhi Leonard to leave in if the Raptors go out in the first round? Leonard had a great regular season and he won’t have any attachment to this team if a first round exit occurs. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Islanders +150 v. Penguins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 150 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Islanders (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) With a chance to end this series here and now, I look for the Islanders to come out and give their best effort of the series. The Penguins are on the ropes and I think they’ll throw in the white flags early if punched in the mouth. “It’s been the storyline for the last couple of games: they score and we come back,” Isles’ offensive star Jordan Eberle noted. “Playoffs are all about momentum. When you can take some teams [momentum] away and continue to build yours, it’s key.” Momentum can in fact be a very real, almost “tangible” factor in sports and especially in the playoffs. Look for New York to put the final nail in the coffin tonight. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Islanders. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers +14 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Clippers (8*) The Warriors pretty much had their way with the Clippers in Game 1. But the playoffs are all about adjustments from game to game and I think the talented Clippers can keep Game 2 much closer than what this spread would suggest. They gave up 121 points in Game 1, but during the regular season they averaged 115.1 PPG themselves. LA has the firepower to match pace today and while the Warriors clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas either, everything points to a competitive battle in my opinion. LA is 3-1 ATS this season revenging four or more loss vs. an opponent in the last two years. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 120-115 Warriors | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors over (10*) The Warriors pretty much had their way with the Clippers in Game 1. But the playoffs are all about adjustments from game to game and I think the talented Clippers can keep Game 2 much closer than what this spread would suggest. They gave up 121 points in Game 1, but during the regular season they averaged 115.1 PPG themselves. LA has the firepower to match pace today and while the Warriors clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas either, everything points to a competitive battle in my opinion. Note that LA has seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 21 revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 18 after a cover as a double digit favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-115 Warriors. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Flames v. Avalanche +111 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 111 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Avalanche (10* GAME OF WEEK) This series is all knotted up at one game apiece. The Flames and Avalanche are very evenly matched. Clearly with a line like this, the oddsmakers agree. Therefore, it wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to come out on top tonight. For me the difference lies in the numbers, as note that Calgary is just 13-15 (-4.5 units) in its last 28 after playing three straight at home, while Colorado is 4-2 in its last six after playing three straight on the road. Home ice is the difference in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Avs. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Nets +7.5 v. 76ers | 123-145 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers (8*) I had a play on the “under” in the Nets’ 103-92 Game 1 victory. In Game 2 I like the home side to bounce back with a resounding victory. The main goal of any visiting team in the first round of the playoffs is to simply earn a “split,” so as to gain control of the “home court advantage” moving forward. With that task accomplished, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here from Brooklyn. The Nets are a deep team, but their inconsistency on the road (just 7-8 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range) will be their downfall tonight in my opinion. Philly on the other hand is still 12-7 ATS this year as a home favorite in the same points range. I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 118-107 76ers. WRONG TEAM CHOSEN: This is a play on the 76ers..not the Nets. Sorry for the confusion...play entering mistake! | |||||||
04-15-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets/Phillies over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) Two of the best in the league go head-to-head on the hill tonight, but I still think this total will sneak over this tiny number. The Phillies Aaron Nola is 1-0 with a 6.46 ERA, while the Mets’ Noah Syndergaar is 1-1 with a 4.74 ERA. The Phillies come in off a 3-1 win in Miami, but they’ll be eager to get their bats going after a lacklustre showing in their last series: "I think hitting is one of those things that can be a little bit hit and miss," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler told reporters in Miami. "Sometimes, you have to give credit to the opposition for pitching well. I think that we have the ability to score lots of runs in consecutive games. And I think that's going to happen for us." The Mets come in off consecutive losses in Atlanta and they’ll also be out to get back into the winners circle. With both of these studs not at their “elite best” to open the season, everything points to this total soaring over the number sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Phillies. | |||||||
04-14-19 | Jets +145 v. Blues | Top | 6-3 | Win | 145 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Winnipeg Jets (10* TRADE-MARK) Unlike the other two games attached in this three game report, I think the 0-2 team is going to bounce back and respond in this spot. The Jets are 7-3 in their last ten played on one days rest, while the Blue are only 2-7 in their last nine as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Jets. | |||||||
04-14-19 | Mets v. Braves +140 | 3-7 | Win | 140 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves (8* MONEY-MAKER) The Braves won 11-7 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. The Mets go with ace Jacob DeGrom, who enters off a terrible outing vs. the Twins at home, allowing six runs over four innings in a 14-8 loss. Julio Teheran is just 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA, but he enters off a hard-fought victory over Colorado. DeGrom is 6-5 with a 1.70 ERA in 17 starts vs. the Braves, while Teheran is 9-7 with a 2.39 ERA in 25 games vs. the Mets. This is great value on the hot hitting home side. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. | |||||||
04-14-19 | Lightning v. Blue Jackets +121 | 1-3 | Win | 121 | 32 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Columbus Blue Jackets (8*) I think the Lightning’s confidence has been completely taken away here. The demoralized Bolts come to Columbus down 0-2 and I think the Blue Jackets can smell the blood in the water. The Blue Jackets have now won nine of their last ten, outscoring their opposition 43-18 over that stretch. Columbus is playing at an elite level right now and I think the Lightning get caught up in the buzzsaw! Great value on the hungry home side here. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Jackets. | |||||||
04-14-19 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 86-121 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Bucks (10* BEST OF BEST) I’m expecting a decisive blowout here. Detroit won its final two regular season games to qualify for the eight spot. The Pistons reward? A date vs. Milwaukee, a team it went 0-4 against in the regular season. The Pistons average 107 PPG and they allow 107.3. The Bucks average 118.1 PPG and they allow 109.3. Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS vs. the division this year, while Detroit is just 6-9 ATS in the same position. Like the Warriors did last night, look for the No. 1 seed in the East to deliver a message here as well. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Bucks. | |||||||
04-14-19 | Islanders +172 v. Penguins | 4-1 | Win | 172 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Islanders (8*) The Penguins were favored to win this series despite starting on the road. They come back home down 0-2 and they’re once again favored. True Pittsburgh’s back is against the wall, but the Islander can now smell the blood in the water. I say the momentum is clearly on New York’s side and I have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh recovering from this one, despite playing at home. The Islanders were road warriors and they’re getting the better goaltending at the moment. I look for New York to put the second to last nail in the coffin with a big effort here. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Islanders. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |