Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Padres over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Theses teams have split the first two games of this series. The lowly visiting side goes with Trevor Richards, who is 2-5 with a 3.82 ERA, while the home side goes with Matt Strahm, who is 2-4 with a 3.21 ERA. Miami won’t be rolling over here as it has in fact been playing a lot better of late, winning four of its last six and going 10-5 since mid May. Richards and Strahm have been above average, this season, but note that Miami has seen the total go over in four of its last six as a road dog of +175 or higher, while SD has seen the total sail over in ten of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Padres. | |||||||
06-01-19 | Bruins v. Blues UNDER 5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins/Blues under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Game 1 went over, Game 2 went under. In Game 2 the score was tied 2-2 after the first period, so the fact that it stayed “under” despite the early huge offensive outburst speaks volumes to the adjustments each team made. And I think that gets carried over here. The primary reason these two teams are where they are right now is because of their goaltenders. I think that Tuukka Rask and Jordan Binnington are lined up to “steal the show” in Game 3 with the shift in venue. The Blues are one of the stingiest teams in the league, and even more so at home. Boston is 6-2 in its last eight on the road and in my opinion, everything once again points to a tight, lower-scoring “under” in Game 3. T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Blues. | |||||||
06-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (8* BANKROLL BUILDER). This is a big game for both division foes. It’s the first game of the new month and each will be eager to kick it off with a victory. St. Louis sits 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead after a terrible May. The Cards posted a 2-1 win in ten innings last night, but I expect a much more offensive affair on Saturday night. Cards’ starter Jake Flaherty is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in four five appearances vs. the Cubs. Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana has done well vs. the Cards over his career, but he comes in off a terrible start vs. the Reds on Sunday, allowing six runs and a career-high 12 hits over five innings in a loss. Note that Chicago has seen the total go over in nine of 12 as a road dog already this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in ten of its last 14 when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards. | |||||||
05-31-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Rangers under (10*) A couple of respectable pitchers collide in this one on Friday night and I think they’ll battle each other deep into the latter frames. KC came out on top in yesterday’s 4-2 win and I believe we’ll see a similar lower-scoring “duel” here as well. Texas turns to Ariel Jurado, who is 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, giving up two runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Angels in his last start. The visitors hand the ball to the resurgent Danny Duffy, who is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA. Duffy’s three-start win streak came to an end in his last trip to the hill, as he’d give up four runs (only one earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Yanks on Sunday (Duffy is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Rangers as well.) I expect these “studs” to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. | |||||||
05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 85 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Raptors over (10*) I played primarily on the Raptors in the ECF, but in Game 1 of the Finals, I’m going with the defending champs. With so much time off between series, I believe each team comes out refreshed and pushes the pace from start to finish. The Warriors will be out to set the tempo and I expect the champs to be relentless in trying to do that. This one has the feel of a “shootout” rather than a defensive “chess match.” Note as well that Golden State has seen the total go over in ten of 15 already this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Toronto has seen the total sail over the number in three of four already this season when playing with three or more days rest. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
05-30-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Phillies under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series. Yesterday Philadelphia homered four times in its 11-4 win. I think the finale of this three-game set though sets up as a much more of a “duel.” The home side goes with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA, but who comes in focused after three straight ugly starts. Note though that Eickhoff has made two career appearances vs. the Cards and has gone 1-1, which includes a 5-0 win on May 8th when he gave up just three hits over eight shutout frames. The Cards are now 7-18 in the month of May. The visitors counter with Dakota Hudson to stop the bleeding, he’s so far 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA. He got crushed by the Phillies on May 7th, but in his last start he went a career-high 6 1/3’s innings in a 6-3 victory over the Braves, giving up five hits and two runs. Note that Hudson comes in on top form, having posted four straight quality starts with a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. These are two hungry starters and I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
05-29-19 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The Astros won their second straight in this series in yesterday’s 9-6 interleague victory. One day earlier Houston had to hold on for the 6-5 win. While the first two games of this series have flown well above the posted number, I think the conditions are now right for more of a “duel” in the finale. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA and who looked sharp in his last outing, allowing one run while posting eight K’s in a win over the Red Sox. Also note that Miley has in fact won four straight and he’s unbeaten at home this year. He’s also 6-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs, which includes going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 2018 while he was with the Brewers. The visitors try to salvage the finale by turning to Kyle Hendricks, who is 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over six innings with nine K’s in a no-decision to the Reds. While only 3-8 in 18 careers starts vs. the American League in his career, Hendricks does own a respectable 3.41 ERA over that span. I look for these surging veteran starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. | |||||||
05-28-19 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Rays over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Rays won yesterday’s three-game series opener 8-3 and I expect a similar final combined score here as well once it’s all said and done. Tampa Bay slugger Austin Meadows had three RBI’s and a home run yesterday. Toronto won’t be rolling over though here after it lost two of three at home to the Rays in April. In fact the Rays are 16-7 vs. the Jays the last two years, including 8-2 at home over that span. Toronto goes with Clayton Richard, who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA so far, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA. The book is still out on each of these starters though with such a small sample size so far. I think the stage is set for another high-scoring affair as I expect each of these starters to get the hook early. Note that Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine after a loss by five runs or more as well. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rays. | |||||||
05-27-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Nationals under (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Max Scherzer got destroyed by the Marlins last week, but overall he’s 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA vs. the Fish. Jose Urena has done extremely well vs. the Nationals throughout his career as well, going 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a complete game thrown in there over 12 career appearances. Note that Miami has seen the total dip under in 13 of 14 “day” games already this year, while Washington has seen the total go under in five of its last six as a home favorite of -200 or higher. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Nationals. | |||||||
05-26-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers/Pirates under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Dodgers have won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 17-4. LA is so far 5-2 on its eight-game road trip. This sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. Pittsburgh won’t be taking anything for granted after losing four of its last five. The Pirates already have 21 players on the IL and yesterday catcher Francisco Cervelli was injured as well by a broken bat. Kenta Maeda is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA for the Dodgers and the Pirates counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season after allowing three runs or less in two straight games, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 12 after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games. I think the conditions and numbers point to a lower-scoring affair. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Dodgers. | |||||||
05-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks/Giants over (8* BLACK-LABEL) I think runs are going to be plentiful here. Arizona broke out of its slump with a resounding 18-2 win in last night’s series opener and I believe it’s going to carry that momentum over here. The home side sends Andrew Suarez to the hill and he’s so far 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Most recently Suarez allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. He’s also only 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in three career starts vs. the D-Backs. The visitors counter with rookie Taylor Clarke, who is 0-1 with a 2.00 ERA and who will make his second career start here. In his first start he gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Rays. San Francisco won’t be lacking for motivation after yesterday’s humiliating defeat. I think these starters get chased early. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. | |||||||
05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Cardinals under (10* SUPER TOTAL) These two starting pitchers dominated last year, but each has so far struggled in 2019. They won’t be lacking for motivation here and I believe this determination from each will help in pushing this total under the number once its all said and done. Braves’ starter Mike Foltynewicz is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA, while Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas is 4-4 with a 4.88 ERA. The Braves come in tired as well after last night’s 5-4, 13 inning victory at San Francisco. Foltynewicz won’t be lacking for focus here though after the Cards crushed him for eight runs over 4 2/3’s innings just last week. In his last start he gave up two runs over six innings vs. the Brewers. Mikolas can empathize, as he gave up seven runs over 1 1/3’s innings to Texas in his last start. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year after two or more consecutive victories, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in four of five already this season after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. | |||||||
05-24-19 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-11 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Twins under (8* MONEY-MAKER) After going 6-1 on a West Coast road trip which saw them hit 22 home runs and outscore its opposition 67-29, I believe Minnesota has a predictable “letdown” here in the opener of this three-game home series vs. the White Sox. The home side hands the ball to Jose Berrios, who is 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA and who is 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA and .183 opponents batting average in nine career starts vs. the White Sox. I think the Twins offense “stalls” after the big road trip, but I expect Berrios to continue his red hot start and his career domination of Chicago. The visitors counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA. Note though that Lopez is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins and 0-1 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts at Target Field. Chicago has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Minnesota has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 as a favorite of -110 or higher. I expect these starters to throw deep. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Twins. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10*) Kawhi Leonard is a new face to the Raptors, but he comes in with a ton of experience in the playoffs. Overall the Raptors have the advantage in the “experience” department. After getting “shell shocked” over the first two games of this series, Toronto returned to form on its own floor in Game’s 3 and 4 and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Leonard has been an absolute beast on both ends of the floor, but especially defensively vs. Bucks’ star Giannis. Toronto’s role players are back playing with a ton of confidence, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee has been tough defensively as well in this series. This one has the feel of an all out war, where every possession is contested. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Mets under (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A couple of competent hurlers square off in this afternoon National League contest and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Mets have won the first three games of this series, including last night’s 6-1 victory (all six runs engineered in the eighth inning.) While both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, this pick is based primarily on the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and who so far has been best in all “day” games this year, going 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA. His counterpart Steven Matz, who is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA, returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to Miami last weekend (he owns a 3.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Nats.) The stage is set for a “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Nationals. | |||||||
05-22-19 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Giants over (10* TOTAL U of U) Max Fried is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA for the Braves and Jeff Samardzija is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA for the Giants. These starters have each gotten out to a decent start to the 2019 campaign, but I think each takes a step back here and gets the hook early. San Francisco completed a dramatic bottom of the night come from behind win last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Note that Fried’s career ERA vs. the Giants is 4.50 with no decisions. Samardzija is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA vs. the Braves lifetime. Note though that ATL has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this year after having lost two of its last three games, while San Francisco has seen the total fly over in five of its last six after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. | |||||||
05-22-19 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Indians (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two hungry starters go head to head in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. The A’s posted a 5-3 win yesterday and I think a similar final combined score will be in order here as well. The home side hands the ball to Jefry Rodriguez, who is 1-3 with a 3.45 ERA and who comes in off his first truly crummy start of the year vs. the Orioles, giving up four runs over seven innings. The A’s god with Frankie Montas, who is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. Montas enters off a gem vs. the Tigers on Friday, striking out a career-high ten and coming within an out of his first career complete effort. Note that Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 already this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Cleveland has seen the total go under in eight of 12 in the same position. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Indians. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 216 | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Raptors under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Game 2 of course would have gone well under the number if not for the Raptors double OT victory. Toronto looked a lot better defensively, especially Kawhi Leonard in slowing down Bucks’ super star Giannis Antetokounmpo (12 points on 5 of 16 shooting, committing eight turnovers.) Toronto is going to employ an identical defensive game plan here as well obviously, except this time each side comes in extra tired after the marathon game last time out. It sets up perfectly as more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Both teams have excelled defensively so far in the playoffs and I believe that will again be the case here. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-105 Milwaukee. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -119 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sharks/Blues under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) When it comes to money line sports, 99.9 percent of the time I either play underdogs or totals. The rare occasion though I’ll lay chalk. And after taking the Blues as an underdog in Game 5 on the road in San Jose, I believe they’re going to carry over their recent momentum and end this series here and now. St. Louis was dominant on both ends of the ice in the 5-0 Game 5 victory. The Sharks appear to be on fumes, mustering a single goal over the last two games. San Jose is MUCH better at home as well, coming into this one at 24-24 on the road, averaging 3.29 goals and conceding 3.46. St. Louis is 27-22 at home, averaging 3.10 goals and allowing 2.98. Blues’ goaltender Jordan Binnington went 14-2 with a 2.02 GAA at home in the regular season. Take it for what you will as well, but SJ has seen the total go under the number in five of its last eight when trailing in a playoff series, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in seven of nine this year after shutting out its opponent in its previous game. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Blues. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nationals/Mets over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) It’s the Nationals’ Erick Fedde (0-0, 3.38 ERA) vs. the Mets Zack Wheeler (3-3, 4.85). New York ended a miserable five-game losing streak with a 5-3 win in last night’s four-game series opener and clearly it’ll be looking to keep the foot on the gas here as well. The Nationals can empathize though as they continue to struggle with game to game consistency as well. It’s interesting to note that the Nats have lost 13 games by two runs or fewer and two more in extra innings. These are two clubs with big expectations but which are both scuffling at the plate. I think that ends tonight. Last Thursday these exact starters faced each other and Wheeler gave up six runs over six innings in Washington’s eventual 7-6 win. All signs point to a similar final combine score in my opinion this time around as well. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Mets. | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Blazers under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Game 2 went “over” in the Warriors 114-111 victory. Portland controlled the game over the first half, but Golden State’s prowess from behind the arc once again proved to be too much for Portland to handle down the stretch. Remember, they’re doing all of this without Kevin Durant, possibly the best player on the planet. The Warriors were wildly inconsistent over the second half of the regular season this year (for their lofty standards anyways) and they looked very susceptible vs. the Clippers in their six game opening round series victory. Golden State’s achilles heel has been its play on the road though and clearly the Blazers will be doubling down on the defensive end as they try desperate to back into this series. The shift in venue points to more of a defensive affair finally in my opinion, as I expect the home side to press from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Blazers. | |||||||
05-18-19 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rockies/Phillies under (8*) Two “studs” going head to head here. I’m expecting each to work into the latter frames, which I believe will ultimately help in pushing this total under the number once it’s all said and done. The home side hands the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 3-0 with a 4.86 ERA. Over his last 21 1/3’s innings of work Nola has given up just six runs. Also note that in three career starts vs. the Rockies he’s 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. The visitors counter with Antonio Senzatela, who is 3-2 with a 5.35 ERA. Coors Field is difficult on all starting pitchers, but note that Senzatela is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA on the road this season. Note that Colorado has seen the total go under in 31 of 50 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in nine of 13 home games already this year. This number is a tad high in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 62 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Toronto lost three of four to Milwaukee in the regular season, but I think Kawhi Leonard and company will at the very least take Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals right down to the wire. These teams are similar in many respects, in that they have a clear top tier dominant player (Leonard for the Raptors and Giaanis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks), as well as a strong cast of starting role players, combined with a deep and talented bench. Toronto’s late acquisition of big man Marc Gasol could swing this series in favor of Toronto though as he and Serge Ibaka proved to be too much for 76ers’ big man Joel Embiid to handle. And I think the combination of the two will prove difficult for Milwaukee as well. The Bucks have yet to be tested in any real way so far in the Playoffs, but I believe that changes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This one just screams “defensive battle” in my opinion. Note as well though that Toronto has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 when playing with two days rest, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in all five games that it’s played in tho shear with three or more days of rest. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Bucks. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Sharks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sharks/Blues under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER). This series is all knotted up at one game apiece. The sharks won 6-3 in Game 1 and the Blues won 4-2 in Game 2. So far each contest has gone “over” the number, but I believe with the shift in venue and with each side not wanting to make the first mistake at this point in this crucial contest, that we’re finally going to see a lower-scoring under. San Jose has the better overall offense between these tams, while St. Louis has the better defense. And probably goaltending in rookie Jordan Binnington, who for the most part has carried his team to this point. The Sharks though will definitely be leaning on net minder Martin Jones, who has also been spectacular overall. I think the netminders will be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries, but note as well that San Jose has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 31 after playing three straight home games, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in three of four so far in the playoffs when tied in a series. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Blues. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Braves under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Two competent starting pitchers collide in the second game of this three game National League series and in my opinion, everything points to classic “duel” after St. Louis’ 14-3 win in yesterday’s opener. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha (3-0, 5.35 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Pirates. The home side counters with Mike Soroka (3-1, 1.21) is the first others since 1913 to allow one run or fewer as a starter in eight of his first ten career games. Note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under in 18 of its last 28 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Atlanta has seen the total go under in 47 of its last 77 at home when the total is either 9 or 9.5. Expect these “studs” to battle into the latter frames and look for this one to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 1-11 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Diamondbacks under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Chris Archer is only 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and he hasn’t pitched since mid April because of injury, but he returns from the DL pumped up here to face the Diamondbacks. These teams have split the first two games of this series. Note that Archer is 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 2/3’s innings of work vs. Arizona. The D-Backs Zack Greinke enters on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his past eight starts. Note that Greinke is 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Additionally note that the Pirates have seen the total go under in 55 of its last 95 as a road dog between +125 to +175, while the D-backs have seen the total go under in ten of 16 “day” games already. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 D-Backs. | |||||||
05-14-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 38 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins/Hurricanes under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Boston has blown out Carolina over the first two games of this series, but I think Game 3 sets up as much more of a defensive affair. The playoffs is all about making adjustments from game to game and if Carolina can’t figure out how to slow down the B’s, then this series is all but over obviously. After going down 6-0 in Game 2, I expect a much more concerted effort at home from Carolina. Note that the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 in this series. Boston only allowed the Canes 23 shots in Game 2 and Carolina has in fact been held to just 29 shots over its last four periods of play. Additionally note that Boston has already seen the total go under in 14 of 22 road games this year when the total in the contest is set at 5.5, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Canes. | |||||||
05-14-19 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 9-0 | Push | 0 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indians/White Sox under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Both of these starters have struggled at times this year, but each has also looked very good in others. Each is coming off a crummy outing (Carrasco is 3-3 with a 4.91 ERA, most recently giving up four runs over eight innings in a no-decision vs. the Mariners, while Banuelos. who is 2-2 with a 6.67 ERA gave up nine runs off ten hits over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. Amazingly, all of the damage came in a single frame. Clearly it was a disaster of epic proportions, but note that despite that “brain fart,” Banuelos is 2-1 with a 5.96 ERA and 22 K’s over 22.2 innings of work. Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 21 on the road already, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in four of its last five home games then the total is set at 8.5 or higher. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Indians. | |||||||
05-13-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -116 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blues/Sharks under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) I think St. Louis has a very real shot at earning an upset here in Game 2. It was an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance from the Blues in their 6-3 Game 1 loss, but I don’t think we should over-react to one poor effort. Blues’ net minder Jordan Binnington is still 8-6 with a 2.57 GAA in the playoffs (note he was 10-4 with a 1.72 GAA on the road in the regular season.) Martin Jones looked good for the Sharks in the Game 1 victory and he’s now 9-5 with a 2.74 GAA in the playoffs. Note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 21 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. All signs point to Game 2 being a very defensive affair. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Blues. | |||||||
05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 55 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Raptors under (8* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) This has been another wild and unpredictable series. When these teams play at their best defensively, they have usually come out on top so far in the playoffs though and with so much on the line, I think that Game 7 sets up beautifully as a tightly contested, lower-scoring defensive battle. These have been two of the best defensive clubs during the postseason and I believe they continue that trend here. And the numbers/trends do indeed support that theory, as note that Philly has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 when playing with two days rest, while Toronto has seen the total dip below in ten of its last 15 in the same position. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 106-100 Toronto. | |||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* SUPER TOTAL) This has been a back and forth series and in Game 7 I believe that we’ll witness a very defensive affair. Fatigue comes into play here in Game 7 of this second round contest. Also note that the thin air of Denver can’t help these “gassed” players either. Denver has been at its best at home, but I’m expecting a battle until the final horn. In my opinion, this one sets up as a very tight, closely guarded defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring run and gun “shootout.” And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 22 following a home win vs. a division rival, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year when playing with two days rest. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Nuggets. | |||||||
05-10-19 | Phillies v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Royals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) I think this one has “duel” written all over it. The Phillies took the final two games of their series vs. the Cards, outscoring them 16-1 in the process. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Jake Arrieta, who is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The veteran has gone at least six innings in seven of hits last eight starts. KC is only 13-25 overall so far, including just 8-11 at home. KC is struggling at the plate, as in Wednesday’s 9-0 loss at Houston it would strike out 17 times. The home side counters with Homer Bailey, who is 3-3 with a 5.25 ERA. Bailey most recently gave up two runs over six innings in a 15-3 win over the Tigers on Saturday. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL EXPRESS) Coaching in the Playoffs, especially in the second round and beyond is all about “making adjustments.” Denver’s been great in that so far after taking out the Spurs in seven games and now seemingly getting a “firm read” on the Blazers and managing to slow down their star Damian Lillard. Clearly it’s up to the Blazers to respond, but these have historically been spots in which Lillard has faded in, not being able to step up and carry the load. And who else on Portland will step up to carry the load if Lillard can’t? I think this one sets up as a defensive affair, with Denver doing everything it can to control the tempo from the outset. Additionally note that the Nuggets have seen the total go under in three of four already this year off a win by ten points or more over a division rival, while Portland has seen the total dip under in three of four this year in trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs. an opponent. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-102 Blazers. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers under (9* TOTAL EXPRESS) Philadelphia is playing for its life here. After taking Game 1, Philadelphia has struggled with consistency and it now finds itself in a 3-2 hole. Toronto would clearly love nothing more than to end it here and now after taking Game 5 125-89. Where is Philadelphia’s scoring going to suddenly come from? Big man Joel Embiid is struggling with injury and sickness and for the most part Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons have been completely ineffective. The last thing Toronto wants to do is to turn this into a track meet, instead I predict the visitors to come out and to blanket the 76ers once again from start to finish. Over the last ten years Toronto has had difficulty closing out series like this, but with Kawhi Leonard, perhaps that’s going to change this season. Regardless, from a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a defensive affair, but also note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of ten so far in the playoffs anyways. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Raptors. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Avs/Sharks over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) While last night’s Game 7 was a lower-scoring “under,” I think this one will be a much more offensive affair. Both clubs have great goaltending, but this series has been defined more by the offensive stars and I believe that trend carries over here in this pivotal affair. San Jose has made it into the playoffs in 19 of the last 21 years, but it’s still to win a cup. The Sharks won’t be taking anything for granted here and I’m expecting a frenzied back-and-forth pace. The numbers/trends support that hypothesis as well, as note that Colorado has seen the total go over in five of its last seven road games after an OT win in which it scored four or more goals in, while San Jose has seen the total go over in 20 of its last 32 after allowing four or more goals. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Sharks. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 218 | 91-116 | Win | 102 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Bucks under (8*) I had a play on the Bucks and the under in Game 4, and while I’m going against Milwaukee in this one, I do believe we’re going to see another tight, lower-scoring defensive battle in Game 5. This is a trap game for the Bucks after two straight wins on the road and with a 3-1 series lead. It remains to be seen if this team is going to be able to close out in this situation and I certainly don’t expect the Celtics to go down without a fight. This one has “war” written all over it as I expect everything to be contended, from the opening tip until the final horn. The numbers support our theory as well, as note that Boston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 after playing two straight at home, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 22 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. This number is high in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Bucks. | |||||||
05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) This has been a back and forth series. The Nuggets lost in quadruple OT in Game 3, only to then bounce back and steal another high-scoring affair in Game 4 to even the series. After back-to-back “marathons,” I believe a much more defensive affair in Game 5. Especially with the shift in venue to the thin Denver air. This one sets up beautifully as a lower-scoring under from a situational angle, but also note that Portland has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Denver. | |||||||
05-07-19 | Stars v. Blues OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Stars/Blues over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) This has been a great back and forth series. I’ve cashed out playing both the over and the under in this one. For Game 7 though I’m expecting a wide open affair. Dallas has traded good games with bad of late, and I do expect that trend to continue here. St. Louis broke out of its offensive slump in Game 6 and there’s no reason not to think that it won’t try to duplicate the identical game plan here. A great situational play on the over. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Blues. | |||||||
05-07-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Jays under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Twins’ Jose Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while the Jays Aaron Sanchez has also gotten out to a great start by going 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. Minnesota won 8-0 in the series opener last night and overall Minnesota has won eight of its last 11. Toronto continues to struggle with consistency at the plate and I think it’ll have a difficult time here facing Berrios as well. Toronto’s lone bright spot on the mound this year continues to be Sanchez and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continues his progress as well. This one has “duel” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10*) Houston is back in this series after its OT win in Game 3. Clearly the last thing Houston can do is take the foot off the gas in Game 3. I’m expecting a very similar style of contest in Game 4 (note I had the over in Game 3). With the home side pushing the pace from the opening tip until the final horn, the Warriors will be forced to match pace with that style of game play. It sets up great as a high-scoring shootout from a situational stand point. Look for these two offensive clubs to play to another “barn burner” in Game 4 and play the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-115 Rockets. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins/Blue Jackets under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) I think Columbus “gets back to basics” in Game 6. It had better, or this series is over. Boston is up 3-2 and it’ll also be looking to continue its stellar play, especially on the defensive end of the ice. Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is 7-5 with a 2.19 GAA in the playoffs, while Columbus net minder Sergei Bobrovsky is 6-3 with a 2.33 GAA in the postseason. Note as well that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 13 of 21 road games this year when the total is set at 5.5, while CBJ has seen the total dip under in 25 of 38 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 2-1 CBJ. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 221 | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics under (8*) After dropping Game 1, it’s been all Milwaukee in this series, but with their backs against the wall, I believe we can expect the home side to double down on the defensive side tonight. This one has more the feel of a slower paced “chess match” than a run-and-gun “shootout.” Boston has also seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Bucks. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Leicester v. Manchester City UNDER 3.75 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: City/Man-City under (10* EPL TOTAL OF MONTH) Leicester will be out to play spoiler here, but Man City won’t be taking anything for granted as it tries to secure its Premier League crown. Note though that Manchester City will once again be without offensive star Kevin De Bruyne, who has missed the last two games with a hamstring issue. Leicester managed the win in the reverse fixture in December, so look for the home side to return the favor here. This one has “chess match” written all over it. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 1-0 Man City. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (10*) This doesn’t have to be an extremely high-scoring game (like Portland’s four OT Game 3 victory), to go “over” this very low number. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting. While most likely are thinking that these two teams will come in “gassed” after the Game 3 “marathon,” I believe these offenses are finally just “warming up!” Both teams are in unchartered territory and with the Warriors looking more susceptible right now than at any other time over the last five years, the Western Conference is up for grabs at this point. These are two young/hungry teams and I think fatigue is an over-rated factor here. And the numbers support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten already this season off a no-cover where it still won SU as the favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Blazers. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers OVER 214.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers over (8*) Toronto is suddenly on the ropes. I have a play on the 76ers as well in this three-game report, but clearly the Raptors are going to have to push the pace here as they try to snap out of their offensive doldrums. The 76ers would love nothing more than to push the pace though and with the home side indeed looking to deliver the second to last nail in the coffin, I definitely think that Game 4 sets up great as a high-scoring “shootout.” Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-113 Philadelphia. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Blues v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blues/Stars over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) These two teams sport two of the best goaltenders in the league. Rookie net minder Jordan Binnington of the Blues and veteran goaltender Ben Bishop of the Stars are largely responsible for their respective teams being where they are at the moment. St. Louis took the first game, but since then it’s been all Dallas. The Blues are going to be forced to open up the playbook and indeed push the pace of this one from the outset. Dallas will also be out to end it here and now as it looks to avoid Game 7. This one sets up great as a higher-scoring game in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Stars. | |||||||
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Even the most casual NBA fan knows the story lines and the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, so breaking down individual player match ups is pretty much pointless in my opinion. Golden State dominated the first two games of this series at home, but with the shift to Houston, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair here. Clearly the Rockets are going to be looking to push the pace from start to finish as they try to turn the momentum around in this series. Golden State was surprisingly good defensively vs. Houston at home, but I believe it’ll struggle to duplicate that effort on the road. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in 20 of 31 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total go over in six of eight when playing with double revenge this year. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Warriors. | |||||||
05-04-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 112 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: CBJ/BOS over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) This has been a competitive series and I don’t think anything is going to change here either. So far it’s also been a very defensive series, which doesn’t come as a big surprise considering the level of talent in net for each team. The Jackets are 13-2 in their last 15 games, allowing just 2.00 GPG over that time. But if CBJ doesn’t start scoring (having just eight total goals in this series thus far), then clearly it’s going to struggle moving forward. The Bruins have only allowed 2.10 goals over their last ten games, but with the shift back to Boston, I’m finally expecting a more wide open affair in this important Game 5. Note as well that Columbus has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 21 after a loss by two goals or more, while Boston has seen the total go over in four of its last six after a win by two goals or more. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Bruins. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The series shifts to Portland after each team split out in Denver. The Nuggets looked great in Game 1 and poor in Game 2. The Blazers looked poor in Game 1 and great in Game 2. The playoffs is all about making adjustments. That’s the same when it comes to wagering on the playoffs as well. While each team has looked inconsistent at times already in this series, I’m expecting a much more efficient and faster paced Game 3. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, while Portland has seen the total go over in 22 of 38 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Nuggets. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Rockies under (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Totals are always high at Coors Field, but this one is is out of whack. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray who is 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA thus far, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 0-2 with an 11.34 ERA. Arizona comes in having won seven of its last ten. Colorado opened the season 3-12, but it returns home off a 4-3 road trip. Anderson looks to return to form for the home side and he’s had decent success vs. the D-backs, going 2-0 with a 5.77 ERA. Ray’s had success in Denver as well, going 1-1 with a respectable 4.15 ERA in five career starts at Coors. Note that Arizona has seen the total go under in seven of nine already this year following two straight victories, while Colorado has seen the total dip under in eight of 13 as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Celtics blew out the Bucks behind a great defensive performance in Game 1, before Milwaukee returned the favor in Game 2. While the Game 2 total did sneak over the number, This series so far hasn’t seen any big time offensive fireworks, but I believe that’s about to change here. Milwaukee will obviously be looking to push the pace again here after its 123-102 Game 2 victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 29 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Milwaukee had 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and I’m expecting a duplicate game-plan in Game 3 from the visiting side. Kyrie Irving looked great in Game 1 for Boston and poor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, we can expect the C’s best player to return to form here as well. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-118 Milwaukee. | |||||||
05-02-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bruins/Blue Jackets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The first three games of this series have fallen under the number, but I think that Game 4 finally sets up as a high-scoring shootout. Despite the setback in Game 3, note that the Bruins have seen the total go over in seven of its last ten on the road. In fact note that despite these teams have played to three straight “unders” in this series, they’ve still seen the total go over in nine of their last 13 in the series. I think the visitors push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Columbus. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $599 |
Matt Fargo | $421 |
Ray Monohan | $400 |
Rocky Atkinson | $333 |
Jim Feist | $292 |
Kyle Hunter | $280 |
Ross Benjamin | $265 |
Marc Lawrence | $253 |
ProSportsPicks | $211 |
AAA Sports | $78 |