Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 85 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Raptors over (10*) I played primarily on the Raptors in the ECF, but in Game 1 of the Finals, I’m going with the defending champs. With so much time off between series, I believe each team comes out refreshed and pushes the pace from start to finish. The Warriors will be out to set the tempo and I expect the champs to be relentless in trying to do that. This one has the feel of a “shootout” rather than a defensive “chess match.” Note as well that Golden State has seen the total go over in ten of 15 already this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Toronto has seen the total sail over the number in three of four already this season when playing with three or more days rest. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -133 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 37 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-LINE MONEY-MAKER) Momentum is a very real, almost “tangible” factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. After looking like a deer caught in the headlights in Games 1 and 2, it’s been all Toronto ever since. The defensive adjustments that the Raptors made have paid huge dividends and with a chance to end this series here and now, I think Kawhi Leonard is going to once again play the role of Super Man here and dominate from start to finish. The Raptors have a distinct home court advantage and I look for them to utilize that here. The Bucks are in unchartered territory and I believe their lack of experience will ultimately be their undoing in this series. I like the home side to find a way to punch its ticket to the NBA Final. T.M. Prediction: 113-100 Toronto. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10*) Kawhi Leonard is a new face to the Raptors, but he comes in with a ton of experience in the playoffs. Overall the Raptors have the advantage in the “experience” department. After getting “shell shocked” over the first two games of this series, Toronto returned to form on its own floor in Game’s 3 and 4 and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Leonard has been an absolute beast on both ends of the floor, but especially defensively vs. Bucks’ star Giannis. Toronto’s role players are back playing with a ton of confidence, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee has been tough defensively as well in this series. This one has the feel of an all out war, where every possession is contested. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 216 | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Raptors under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Game 2 of course would have gone well under the number if not for the Raptors double OT victory. Toronto looked a lot better defensively, especially Kawhi Leonard in slowing down Bucks’ super star Giannis Antetokounmpo (12 points on 5 of 16 shooting, committing eight turnovers.) Toronto is going to employ an identical defensive game plan here as well obviously, except this time each side comes in extra tired after the marathon game last time out. It sets up perfectly as more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Both teams have excelled defensively so far in the playoffs and I believe that will again be the case here. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-105 Milwaukee. | |||||||
05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +155 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Trail Blazers MONEY LINE (10* GAME OF WEEK) I thought Golden State was going to win this series, but I didn’t foresee a “sweep.” Especially with KD sidelined with injury. I believe Portland offers great value here though to salvage a little respect and to earn a Game 3 victory outright. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the Warriors, clearly they’ve “found their groove” riding the red hot shooting of Klay Thompson and captain Stephen Curry. I simply feel that Golden State has a letdown here with the knowledge that KD can now return and that they also have a Game 5 to wrap up this series in front of the home town crowd. I don’t think Damian Lillard and proud home side go down without a fight tonight. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that GS is just 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less this season, while Portland is still 5-1 ATS this season as a home underdog. Play on Portland money line. T.M. Prediction: 115-105 Blazers. | |||||||
05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER). Toronto has looked decent in the first half of both games so far in the ECF’s, but the second half it’s been non-existent. The Raptors are better at home than on the road though, as they enjoy one of the league’s “best” home court advantages. It’s difficult to play North of the border and I believe the surging Bucks finally have a letdown here. Milwaukee has been playing at an extremely high level with only one loss so far in the playoffs, but it’s about to have its hands full in this difficult venue in my opinion. The Raptors are fantastic defensively on their own floor and I believe that trend carries over here. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that the Bucks are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Toronto is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Raptors. | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Blazers under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Game 2 went “over” in the Warriors 114-111 victory. Portland controlled the game over the first half, but Golden State’s prowess from behind the arc once again proved to be too much for Portland to handle down the stretch. Remember, they’re doing all of this without Kevin Durant, possibly the best player on the planet. The Warriors were wildly inconsistent over the second half of the regular season this year (for their lofty standards anyways) and they looked very susceptible vs. the Clippers in their six game opening round series victory. Golden State’s achilles heel has been its play on the road though and clearly the Blazers will be doubling down on the defensive end as they try desperate to back into this series. The shift in venue points to more of a defensive affair finally in my opinion, as I expect the home side to press from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Blazers. | |||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors +7 v. Bucks | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER) Toronto controlled Game 1 up until about mid-way through the fourth quarter. That’s when the Bucks were finally able to get over the hump, pulling away for a very tight cover in the closing moments. But I’m expecting the Raptors to come back even harder here. There’s no reason at all not to expect another battle here, as these two evenly matched sides aren’t going to give an inch. Note that Toronto is already 2-0 ATS this year when trailing in a playoff series and 20-12 ATS in its last 22 after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS, while Milwaukee is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after five or more consecutive victories. While I do believe the outright is a possibility, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Toronto. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Raptors. | |||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Portland (10* MONEY-MAKER) Analysis posted at least 8 hours before game time. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Golden State. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 62 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Toronto lost three of four to Milwaukee in the regular season, but I think Kawhi Leonard and company will at the very least take Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals right down to the wire. These teams are similar in many respects, in that they have a clear top tier dominant player (Leonard for the Raptors and Giaanis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks), as well as a strong cast of starting role players, combined with a deep and talented bench. Toronto’s late acquisition of big man Marc Gasol could swing this series in favor of Toronto though as he and Serge Ibaka proved to be too much for 76ers’ big man Joel Embiid to handle. And I think the combination of the two will prove difficult for Milwaukee as well. The Bucks have yet to be tested in any real way so far in the Playoffs, but I believe that changes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This one just screams “defensive battle” in my opinion. Note as well though that Toronto has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 when playing with two days rest, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in all five games that it’s played in tho shear with three or more days of rest. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Bucks. | |||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Portland Trail Blazers (10* GAME OF WEEK) Golden State got by the Rockets in Game 6 without the services of All Star Kevin Durant, but I think the defending champs will struggle in Game 1 of the WCF. These teams split four regular season meetings and in my opinion, everything points to another competitive affair here. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are going to be a matchup issue for the undermanned Warriors, and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think the conditions are definitely right for a war until the end. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland is 50-32 ATS in its last 82 vs. teams which allow 106 plus points or more, while Golden State is just 18-27 ATS as a home favorite this year. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. | |||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* SUPER TOTAL) This has been a back and forth series and in Game 7 I believe that we’ll witness a very defensive affair. Fatigue comes into play here in Game 7 of this second round contest. Also note that the thin air of Denver can’t help these “gassed” players either. Denver has been at its best at home, but I’m expecting a battle until the final horn. In my opinion, this one sets up as a very tight, closely guarded defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring run and gun “shootout.” And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 22 following a home win vs. a division rival, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year when playing with two days rest. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Nuggets. | |||||||
05-10-19 | Warriors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Rockets in their tight Game 5 loss, but for Game 6 I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs, despite playing without the services of Kevin Durant, to battle tight and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. If ever there was a time for Klay Thompson to step up and show the basketball World that he’s worth a max contract, now is the time. With Durant available for the next round, the Warriors don’t need to panic at this point. If Golden State gets a decent game out of Curry and a good one from Thompson, they have a legitimate shot at taking this game outright. So far home court advantage has meant everything in this series, but the veteran leadership which the Warriors bring to the table in this instance is the difference maker in my opinion. Note as well that Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 when trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is 0-2 ATS in its last two when facing elimination in a playoff series. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Rockets. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL EXPRESS) Coaching in the Playoffs, especially in the second round and beyond is all about “making adjustments.” Denver’s been great in that so far after taking out the Spurs in seven games and now seemingly getting a “firm read” on the Blazers and managing to slow down their star Damian Lillard. Clearly it’s up to the Blazers to respond, but these have historically been spots in which Lillard has faded in, not being able to step up and carry the load. And who else on Portland will step up to carry the load if Lillard can’t? I think this one sets up as a defensive affair, with Denver doing everything it can to control the tempo from the outset. Additionally note that the Nuggets have seen the total go under in three of four already this year off a win by ten points or more over a division rival, while Portland has seen the total dip under in three of four this year in trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs. an opponent. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-102 Blazers. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers under (9* TOTAL EXPRESS) Philadelphia is playing for its life here. After taking Game 1, Philadelphia has struggled with consistency and it now finds itself in a 3-2 hole. Toronto would clearly love nothing more than to end it here and now after taking Game 5 125-89. Where is Philadelphia’s scoring going to suddenly come from? Big man Joel Embiid is struggling with injury and sickness and for the most part Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons have been completely ineffective. The last thing Toronto wants to do is to turn this into a track meet, instead I predict the visitors to come out and to blanket the 76ers once again from start to finish. Over the last ten years Toronto has had difficulty closing out series like this, but with Kawhi Leonard, perhaps that’s going to change this season. Regardless, from a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a defensive affair, but also note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of ten so far in the playoffs anyways. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Raptors. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets (10*) So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series. But other than Kevin Durant, the Warriors have looked very “off” over the last two games and I think that Houston has a legitimate shot at stealing Game 5 outright. The Clippers won two games at Oracle Arena remember in the opening series. The Rockets made the necessary defensive adjustments and both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are struggling with consistency right now. James Harden and company though have definitely improved dramatically on both ends of the court and I see no reason that that momentum won’t be carried over here. Consider as well that Houston is 4-0 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Golden State is only 9-18 ATS this year as a home favorite in the same points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. | |||||||
05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) This has been a back and forth series. The Nuggets lost in quadruple OT in Game 3, only to then bounce back and steal another high-scoring affair in Game 4 to even the series. After back-to-back “marathons,” I believe a much more defensive affair in Game 5. Especially with the shift in venue to the thin Denver air. This one sets up beautifully as a lower-scoring under from a situational angle, but also note that Portland has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Denver. | |||||||
05-07-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This has been a very competitive series and I expect nothing different in Game 5. Toronto earned the 101-96 win last time out behind 39 points from Kawhi Leonard. In Game 3 Philadelphia star Joel Embiid had 30 points, ten boards and five blocks in the 76ers 116-95 victory. Leonard has been incredible so far, but one has to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank? The rest of the Raptors have been poor and it’s the opening that Philadelphia needs to once again take control of this series. Philadelphia’s role players have also struggled at times, but I still think that Philadelphia features the deeper and more skilled scoring talent. Additionally note that Philadelphia already 4-1 ATS this year off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Toronto is only 20-22 ATS this season after a game where it covered the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10*) Houston is back in this series after its OT win in Game 3. Clearly the last thing Houston can do is take the foot off the gas in Game 3. I’m expecting a very similar style of contest in Game 4 (note I had the over in Game 3). With the home side pushing the pace from the opening tip until the final horn, the Warriors will be forced to match pace with that style of game play. It sets up great as a high-scoring shootout from a situational stand point. Look for these two offensive clubs to play to another “barn burner” in Game 4 and play the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-115 Rockets. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (10*) This doesn’t have to be an extremely high-scoring game (like Portland’s four OT Game 3 victory), to go “over” this very low number. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting. While most likely are thinking that these two teams will come in “gassed” after the Game 3 “marathon,” I believe these offenses are finally just “warming up!” Both teams are in unchartered territory and with the Warriors looking more susceptible right now than at any other time over the last five years, the Western Conference is up for grabs at this point. These are two young/hungry teams and I think fatigue is an over-rated factor here. And the numbers support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten already this season off a no-cover where it still won SU as the favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Blazers. | |||||||
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Even the most casual NBA fan knows the story lines and the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, so breaking down individual player match ups is pretty much pointless in my opinion. Golden State dominated the first two games of this series at home, but with the shift to Houston, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair here. Clearly the Rockets are going to be looking to push the pace from start to finish as they try to turn the momentum around in this series. Golden State was surprisingly good defensively vs. Houston at home, but I believe it’ll struggle to duplicate that effort on the road. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in 20 of 31 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total go over in six of eight when playing with double revenge this year. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Warriors. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Celtics blew out the Bucks behind a great defensive performance in Game 1, before Milwaukee returned the favor in Game 2. While the Game 2 total did sneak over the number, This series so far hasn’t seen any big time offensive fireworks, but I believe that’s about to change here. Milwaukee will obviously be looking to push the pace again here after its 123-102 Game 2 victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 29 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Milwaukee had 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and I’m expecting a duplicate game-plan in Game 3 from the visiting side. Kyrie Irving looked great in Game 1 for Boston and poor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, we can expect the C’s best player to return to form here as well. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-118 Milwaukee. | |||||||
05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (10* GAME OF MONTH) After getting blown out in Game 1 the under 76ers earned the split with a dominant performance in Game 2 and I believe they’ll carry that confidence and momentum over into another small upset in Game 3 in friendly confines. Toronto shot only 36.3 percent from the floor and 27 percent from range in Monday’s loss. Philadelphia is deep and it earned the Game 2 win despite big man Joel Embiid pretty much being ineffective. With the shift in venue, I think Embiid has his biggest performance yet. Note that Toronto is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less and just 7-8 ATS when playing with two days rest, while Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 76ers. | |||||||
05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Denver won 121-113. I’m expecting another higher-scoring affair in Game 2 as well as the Blazers will look to get out and push the pace from start to finish. Denver looked great though after its seven games opening round victory over the Spurs in Game 1 and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that it won’t carry that momentum over here. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver in Game 1 with 37 points. Portland got 34 points from Damian Lillard and it’ll need a similar effort here if it hopes to earn a coveted split. Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten off a loss vs. a division rival this year, while Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight home games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 120-117 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-30-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 218 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the over in Game 1 and while that contest failed to eclipse the posted number, I think that the situation and the trends definitely now point to a higher-scoring shootout in Game 2. Houston was playing from behind all night in Game 1 and if it doesn’t want to return home in an 0-2 hole, clearly it’s going to have to make some major adjustments. Golden State surprised me defensively, but I think the Warriors will have their hands full this time with a Rockets team which I definitely expect to push the pace from start to finish. And the numbers/trends support our theory, as note that Houston has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go over in 19 of its last 29 when leading in a playoff series. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Warriors. | |||||||
04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and I think it has a legitimate shot at pulling off the outright upset in Game 2 as well. If you didn’t get a chance to read my Game 1 analysis, do so now as the logic behind that play for the most part also directly applies to this one: I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-113 Boston. | |||||||
04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10*) This is an interesting series, as two teams which are accustomed to either missing the playoffs entirely, or which inevitably go out early in the second round, now go head-to-head in Mile High in the second round. The Blazers haven’t played since Tuesday though and I think that rest is going to lead to rust after their five-game series win over the Thunder. Both teams have been exceptional defensively to this point and I expect those trends to carry over here. Portland comes in averaging 111 PPG and allowing 105.2 in the playoffs, while Denver is averaging 105.1 points and allowing 103.1. The under is 7-3-1 in the Blazers last ten road games and all signs point to that being added to right here. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-103 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL TRADE MARK) Golden State struggled with offensive consistency vs. the Clippers at times in the first round, but I think it’ll have the foot on the gas in Game 1 vs. the Rockets. And for Houston it’s an opportunity to finish some unfinished business. The Rockets had a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Warriors last year, but an injury to guard Chris Paul in Game 5 saw the Rockets then go on to lose three straight. The Rockets scored only 89 points per game over those last two games, so clearly they’ll be out to send a message as well. The stage is now set for an epic battle and I expect that to translate into a high-scoring blowout. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 127-120 Warriors. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 121 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Bucks. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets under (10* BLACK-LABEL) I had a play on the “over” in Game 6, but I believe that Game 7 sets up as a defensive affair. These are in fact two of the better defensive clubs in the Western Conference and with so much on the line, I’m expecting each to double down on that end of the court. This has been a back and forth series, with each side looking great at times and very poor in others. The numbers/trends however support our theory though, as note that SA has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 this year after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Denver has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 this season in trying got revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 100-95 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Clippers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I was expecting a more competitive, lower-scoring battle in Game 5. That didn’t hold true though, as LA jumped out to an early big lead and then didn’t let up, keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Clippers needed a similar effort in their upset win in Game 2 as well. Game 3 at home saw them come out an “lay an egg” though. Offensive consistency from game-to-game has plagued the Clippers at times in this series. I think the Warriors double down defensively here as they look to end it tonight. Note that Golden State has seen the total go under in 15 of 22 this year after allowing 120 points or more, while LA has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten off an upset win as a road dog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 119-110 Warriors. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Spurs over (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) It’s a BIG game between the Nuggets and the Spurs in Game 6 in San Antonio. Both teams have looked great in this series and each has looked poor as well. With their backs against the wall though, I think the Spurs offer great value to extend this series to a decisive Game 7. The Spurs have been better at home all year than on the road and that matters here. So does the veteran leadership that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich brings to the table. Denver has exceeded expectations this season, but it definitely struggled with consistency down the stretch. If you’ve seen my “Free Play” on this game, then you know I like the Spurs. San Antonio can’t let Denver dictate the pace of this one obviously and expect to win. With the home side pushing the pace from start to finish, I believe this total will indeed fly over sooner, rather than later. Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of seven this year after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 13 this year after a road loss by ten or more points. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-114 Spurs. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -107 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors under (10* TRADE-MARK) LA came from behind to knock off the Warriors in Game 2, but other than that it’s been all Golden State in this series. The Clippers can obviously ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the sharp-shooting Warriors, instead the visitors are going to have to try and muscle their way to another victory here. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring “shootout.” A great situational play, but also note that the Clippers have seen the total go under in 19 of 30 as a road underdog tho shear, while GS has seen the total go under in eight of its last 11 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 212 | Top | 90-108 | Loss | -103 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) So far this has been a very evenly matched series as we come into Game 5 all tied at 2-2. The Spurs have averaged 106.8 points and they’ve allowed 108.8 overall this year, while Denver is averaging 108.8 PPG, while allowing 106.8. These are two tough defensive-minded clubs, but I think Game 5 will break the mould and we’ll see a higher-scoring shootout. The Spurs will be out to push the pace after allowing a double-digit lead go to waste last time out. A pivotal/crucial game obviously and one which I expect to be dominated by each team’s underachieving offenses. A great situational play on the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-112 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Nets +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Nets in Game 4 and I lost that play, the only NBA play of the four that I released on the weekend that lost. After winning Game 1 the Nets have faltered as the 76ers have taken three straight. However, with its back against the wall, I like Brooklyn to step up here and get the job done. I also don’t think that the outright win is out of the question. Consistency from game to game has plagued the 76ers all year and while they’ve seemingly gotten it together over the last week, I’m not fully convinced quite yet until I do indeed see them finish the deal. The Nets have admittedly disappointed over the last couple of games, but we don’t have to question their drive in this one. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to deliver the goods. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-115 Nets. | |||||||
04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Houston has a 3-0 lead. Utah’s playoff run is likely over, as 3-0 hole is going to be just too big to overcoming. The Rockets won Game 1 by a score of 122-90, Game 2 by a score of 118-98 and Game 3 by a score of 104-101. The Rockets have been exceptional defensively so far, meaning that the Jazz’s only chance in this one is to try and break the mould and push the pace. Utah has so far been shutdown offensively, but the numbers support us today in that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in eight of ten this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. I’m finally expecting a competitive, higher-scoring contest in Game 4. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Houston. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Clippers keep this crucial Game 4 competitive. The outright win isn’t out of the question, but I’ll recommend grabbing the points. After rolling to a 132-105 win in Game 3, I think the Warriors come out flat here. The Clippers know they can’t go back to Golden State down 3-1 and expect to win this series, so with the home side laying everything on the line, I do indeed expect a “nail biter” until the end. The Clippers have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Golden State and they won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. Additionally note that Golden State is still a horrible 16-20 ATS as a road favorite this season, while LA is a solid 16-8 ATS in its last 24 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-117 Warriors. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Pacers over (10* TRADE-MARK) Not surprisingly, this has been a low-scoring defensive series. I think the narrative changes here though as I look for the home side to push the pace here from the outset as it looks to stave off elimination. The Celtics have a 3-0 lead after their 104-96 Game 3 win, but clearly they’ll have their hands full here vs. this desperate home side. Note that Boston has had to rally in the second half in all three games to earn the victory. I think Indiana once again pushes the pace, but this time for a full four quarters. A faster paced game will lead to more shots and more shots will lead to more points. Additionally note that Boston has seen the total go over in 11 of 15 this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Indiana has seen the total soar over in four of its last six as a home underdog. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Boston. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 59 h 5 m | Show |
.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Jazz have their backs against the wall. The Rockets have a 2-0 lead and if Utah has any hopes whatsoever of getting back into this series, it’s going to have to lean on its strengths. What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Jazz? For me its hard nosed defense. Clearly the Jazz can’t turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with James Harden and company. Instead Utah is going to be playing a half to full court defense from start to finish. It’ll also be out to control the tempo while on offense. Additionally note that Houston’s already seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as a road underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip under in nine of its last 14 after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The situation and numbers both point to the under as the correct call. T.M. Prediction: 107-103 Jazz. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +4.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR) Orlando dominated the second half of the regular season and it came out and accomplished exactly what it wanted to in Toronto to open this series, earning a “split” by handily taking Game 1. The Raptors bounced back in Game 2, but I smell another slight upset in Game 3 as I look for the home side to ride the wave of emotion. Of course the Magic would have loved to have taken both games from the Raptors, but that’s not realistic. A split was the goal and with that goal having already been accomplished after the first game, the Magic took the foot off the gas in Game 2. It’ll be full speed ahead though in Game 3. These teams are evenly matched, but I think the home floor advantage is significant here. Note as well that Toronto is a terrible 11-14 ATS this season as a road favorite, while Orlando is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Magic. | |||||||
04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Nets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) Game 1 went under. Game 2 went way over in the 76ers blowout victory. In Game 3 I’m anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle. Brooklyn will have to get back to basics here if it has any shot at pulling off another upset. The Nets looked stout in their 103-92 Game 1 victory, but they fell apart in the second half of Game 2, ultimately falling 145-123. I think both teams come in “gassed” here. Note as well that Philly has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when playing with two days rest and in 14 of 22 this season after a victory by ten points or more, while Brooklyn has seen the total dip under in ten of 16 this year when playing with two days rest. All signs point to a more methodical pace. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-107 76ers. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two defensive minded clubs collide on Wednesday night. Boston took Game 1 by a score of 84-74, but I’m anticipating a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Indiana can’t rely on its strength and sit back and hope to grind this series out. The Celtics are equally as capable at playing that style of game, yet they’re better on the offensive end. If Indiana has any shot at taking this series, it’s going to have to find a way to score. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on that end of the floor tonight, I’m expecting a much faster paced game in Game 2. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 110-106 Boston. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 57 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* GAME OF WEEK) After three straight wins, I think the Spurs have a letdown here. San Antonio scored the major upset in Game 1 and with the “split” accomplished, I think that the Spurs predictably come up short here (just like the Nets did last night in their blowout loss to the 76ers!) It’s an identical situation. The 76ers had a great overall year, yet it would have basically all gone to waste if it didn’t buckle down and take care of business in Game 2. And now that’s exactly the same situation that the Nuggets find themselves in. San Antonio is still just 11-12 ATS as a road dog this year, while Denver is still 23-16 ATS as a home favorite (also 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two days rest.) Lay the points, expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 112-98 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors over (10*) The Warriors pretty much had their way with the Clippers in Game 1. But the playoffs are all about adjustments from game to game and I think the talented Clippers can keep Game 2 much closer than what this spread would suggest. They gave up 121 points in Game 1, but during the regular season they averaged 115.1 PPG themselves. LA has the firepower to match pace today and while the Warriors clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas either, everything points to a competitive battle in my opinion. Note that LA has seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 21 revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 18 after a cover as a double digit favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-115 Warriors. | |||||||
04-14-19 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 86-121 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Bucks (10* BEST OF BEST) I’m expecting a decisive blowout here. Detroit won its final two regular season games to qualify for the eight spot. The Pistons reward? A date vs. Milwaukee, a team it went 0-4 against in the regular season. The Pistons average 107 PPG and they allow 107.3. The Bucks average 118.1 PPG and they allow 109.3. Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS vs. the division this year, while Detroit is just 6-9 ATS in the same position. Like the Warriors did last night, look for the No. 1 seed in the East to deliver a message here as well. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Bucks. | |||||||
04-13-19 | Spurs +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Antonio Spurs (10* TRADE-MARK) These are two hard-nosed defensive minded clubs, but I believe they’ll engage in an up-tempo “shootout” to open this series. I think these teams are evenly matched. The Spurs averaged 111.7 PPG and they allowed 110, while Denver averaged 110.7 PPG, while allowing 106.7. Note though that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 ATS this year trying to revenge a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Denver is interestingly only 33-34 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Denver. | |||||||
04-10-19 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Hawks under (10* O/U MONEY-MAKER) Meaningless game. The Pacers are locked into the fifth spot in the East and a win or a loss today will do nothing to change that. Indiana will be resting most of its starters and the Hawks don’t even have the added motivation of playing “spoiler” here. Indiana has taken all three earlier meetings and while it may fall short here because of the circumstances, in my opinion this one absolutely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. Additionally note that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 29 of 37 as a favorite this season, while ATL has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 12 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Indiana. | |||||||
04-09-19 | Hornets v. Cavs +7 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Cavaliers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Cavaliers are looking to snap a nine-game slide, while also looking to play spoiler here to the Hornets, who are in a dog fight until the end for one of the final spots in the East. Overall the Hornets average 110.5 PPG, while allowing 111.9. The Cavs average 104.6 PPG, while conceding 114. I’ll point out though that the Hornets are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. Expect the home side to push this one to the brink. T.M. Prediction: 111-110 Hornets. | |||||||
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 117 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 35 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Texas Tech/Virginia over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) If you’re wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the story lines for both teams, how they got here, their strengths and weaknesses, their coaches and their star players. Texas Tech finished with the No. 3 defense, while Virginia owns the No. 1. Writing a play on the “under” wouldn’t be too difficult obviously, but for the National Championship Game, I think these teams push the pace offensively from start to finish. Each can play defense, but it’s going to be the team which can execute on the offensive side of the ball that wins the title. With each side putting an added emphasis on that side of the ball in this one, I look for this total to fly over as it comes down the stretch. T.M. Prediction: 65-60 Cavaliers. | |||||||
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -117 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Virginia (10* GAME OF MONTH) If you’re wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the story lines for both teams, how they got here, their strengths and weaknesses, their coaches and their star players. Texas Tech finished with the No. 3 defense, while Virginia owns the No. 1. Writing a play on the “under” wouldn’t be too difficult obviously, but for the National Championship Game, I think these teams push the pace offensively from start to finish. Each can play defense, but it’s going to be the team which can execute on the offensive side of the ball that wins the title. Virginia’s offensive numbers are slimly better than the Red Raiders. So are its defensive numbers. The Cavaliers also have the experience advantage. While Virginia has yet to put forth a solid cover in this tournament to date, I expect it to finally do so here. These teams are mirror images of each other, but the Cavs’ experience and superior offensive numbers are the difference. T.M. Prediction: 65-60 Cavaliers. | |||||||
04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) This is a big game for both teams. The Nuggets just clinched their division with a 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, but they still have a shot at taking the entire Western Conference. The Blazers have been almost unbeatable at home, but key injuries to center Jusuf Nurkic and to CJ McCollum could be catching up to Portland. The Nuggets aren’t a high-scoring team anyways, instead relying on a top notch defense and efficient offensive attack that runs through big man Nikola Jokic. Portland is running out of gas in my opinion as well. This one has the feel of more of a “chess match” than a “track meet.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY | |||||||
04-07-19 | Clippers +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-131 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Clippers are in a dog fight for one of the final spot in the West. They’ll be eager to get back on track here and to try and score the upset win after a 135-103 home loss to Houston and a 122-117 setback to the Lakers. “(If) we lose a couple more, we’ll be in the eight seed,” head coach Doc Rivers admitted, preceding that comment with some sarcasm. “That would be really smart on our part. (The seeding) matters. It absolutely matters. I don’t think anybody wants to go play Golden State. If we have to, we’ll be ready. But my guess is the other seven teams aren’t volunteering. That’s all I’m going to say.” Golden State is on the verge of clinching the Western Conference, but after four straight wins, I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here. Outright upset? Nah! But grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY | |||||||
04-06-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan State -2.5 | Top | 61-51 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Michigan State (10* BLOWOUT BEST OF BEST) With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And they are. Both have used smothering defensive play to reach this point, but MSU’s offense is better and in this situation, I think that’ll be enough to put the Spartans over the top. Tom Izzo has an advantage over his counterpart Chris Beard as well. Michigan State’s experience and superior offensive numbers make it the correct call in my opinion. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 73-60 MSU. | |||||||
04-05-19 | South Florida +2.5 v. DePaul | Top | 77-65 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: South Florida (10* WINNER). I had the Bulls in Game 1, the Blue Demons in Game 2 and for Game 3 I’m coming back with USF (each game has been razor sharp, some may have won, pushed or lost depending on when you got down. I was admittedly fortunate both times so far). Game 2 was a 100-96 OT DePaul win, but I think the Game 3 pace, which I predict will be “slow” due to the high-scoring extra-frame shootout on Wednesday, absolutely favors the defensive minded Bulls here. DePaul has not looked like the better team and home court was not really an advantage at all in Game 2. Note that DePaul is still just 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while USF is still 12-3 ATS in its last 15 on the road. Grab the points, but don’t be shocked by an outright upset. T.M. Prediction: 75-70 Bulls. | |||||||
04-04-19 | Lipscomb +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Lipscomb (10*) I had Lipscomb in their victory over Wichita State last time out and I think they’re not getting nearly enough respect here as well. The Longhorns looked impressive in their 58-44 win over TCU, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this deep and experienced “Cinderella” side. The Bison average 83.6 PPG and they allow 69.9. Texas averages only 70.8 PPG, while allowing 66.4. The numbers don’t add up to me here. I think the Bison get out to an early lead and I don’t think the offensively challenged Longhorns are going to be able to keep up. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 75-70 Bison. | |||||||
04-03-19 | Spurs +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 85-113 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Spurs are trying desperately to avoid eighth spot in the West, which would almost assuredly mean a matchup with the Warriors. San Antonio handled the Hawks 117-111 at home last night and I think they carry that momentum over into the first game of their final road trip of the year. Denver on the other hand was busy losing 116-102 to the Warriors last night and I think it comes in still collectively caught up on that setback. Note that the Spurs are 32-22 ATS this year vs. teams which average over 106 plus points per contest, while Denver is just 6-9 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Spurs. | |||||||
04-03-19 | South Florida v. DePaul -4 | Top | 96-100 | Push | 0 | 33 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: DePaul (10* BLOWOUT) I had a play on USF and it would hold on for the 63-61 home victory in Game 1 of the CBI Tournament Championship on Monday. With a chance to take the title here, the defensive minded Bulls are going to be out to duplicate their performance, holding the Blue Demons to just 38.5 percent from the floor in the victory. In Game 2 though I’m expecting the high-flying Blue Demons to push the pace from start to finish and to ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd to solid SU/ATS victory here. USF is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but at nearly 79 PPG average offensively for the Blue Demons, I think the Bulls’ unit gets pushed to the brink in Game 2. From a situational stand point I think this one sets up great for DePaul to bounce back in. USF is also just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, while DePaul is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a road loss. T.M. Prediction: 85-67 Blue Demons. | |||||||
04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Warriors under (10* O/U BLACK-LABEL) What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offense. However, I believe we’ll see a much more defensive affair this time around as the visitors try to control the tempo/pace from the outset. Denver only averages 110.9 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 106.7. Golden State is out for its fourth win in five games and it holds a 1.5 games lead in the West over Denver now. Clearly this is going to be a “battle,” and in my opinion it’ll be a low-scoring defensive one. The Warriors average 117.7 PPG and concede 111.5, but note that GS has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 20 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. T.M. Prediction: 117-109 Warriors. | |||||||
04-02-19 | Hampton +5.5 v. Marshall | Top | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hampton (10* BLACK-LABEL) This is one of the semi-finals of the CIT. The Hampton Pirates have won eight of their last nine games. Overall the Pirates average 81.4 PPG, while allowing 76.1. The Thundering Herd have won eight of nine as well. Overall Marshall averages 80.2 PPG, while allowing 80.9. These number don’t matchup. Hampton has experience as well. Additionally note that the Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road, while the Herd are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. I think the outright upset is very possible obviously, but in the end I’ll grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 88-86 Hampton. | |||||||
04-01-19 | Hornets v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Utah Jazz (10* MONEY-MAKER) Utah has won four straight over some pretty mediocre competition, but it finds itself in another favorable situation here, facing a Hornets team that comes in off a blowout loss in Golden State just last night. The Hornets would need to sweep the board and get outside help to make the playoffs at this point, while Utah is looking to gain ground. From a situational stand point, this one sets up fantastically for the home side. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Jazz. | |||||||
04-01-19 | DePaul v. South Florida -1 | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USF (10* CBB GAME OF WEEK) This is Game 1 of the best of three for the CBI title. DePaul enters off win over CMU, Longwood, Coastal Carolina, while USF beat Stony Brook, Utah Valley and Loyola Marymount. DePaul has looked good so far in this tournament having scored at least 90 points in all three victories, but note that it’s still just 3-8 on the road this year. Overall the Blue Demons average 78.6 PPG, while allowing 76.2. USF has gotten this far because of its unreal defense and I believe it’ll be the difference maker in Game 1 as well (most recently beating Loyola Marymount 56-47 at home.) USF is 17-5 on its home floor and it averages 71.9 PPG, while allowing 66.5. I’m banking on home floor mattering here. T.M. Prediction: 80-71 Bulls. | |||||||
03-31-19 | Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 90-137 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hornets/Warriors under (10* O/U BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams have ben playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late as each pushes for towards the playoffs. The Hornets predictably play with revenge here. Charlotte is in tenth in the East, but only two games behind Miami for the eighth spot. The Hornets have won four of their last five. Overall the Hornets average only 110.9 PPG, while allowing 111.9. The Warriors come in off an exhausting OT loss in Minnesota, and I think they’ll be “gassed” here. I expect the home side to try and control and dictate the tempo of this one, rather than trying to push the pace and shoot the lights out. It’s a great situational play in my opinion as all signs point to a defensive affair. T.M. Prediction: 112-100 Warriors | |||||||
03-31-19 | Michigan State v. Duke -1.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Duke (10* TRADE-MARK) After back-to-back near upsets, I look for the Blue Devils to come out and play their finest game to this point of the Tournament. These are two of the most storied College Basketball schools in history, so a re-cap of their Hall of Fame coaches or the programs themselves is unnecessary obviously. What doesn’t break you, makes you stronger. The Blue Devils have survived and I believe they’ll come in confident here vs. a Spartans team which has rolled through its competition to this point. But now MSU is in for a fight and I think it’s one that it’s not matched up well for. I like the big stars (Barrett, Williamson) of Duke to be the difference once again. Lay it. T.M. Prediction: 80-68 Blue Devils. | |||||||
03-30-19 | Purdue +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Purdue (10*) Virginia has an unrelenting defense. The Cavs are the No. 1 defense in the country, but Purdue comes in on top form and I believe the Boilermakers will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Purdue had a 14 point lead over the Vols in the Sweet 16, but eventually the Boilermakers pulled away for the 99-94 OT victory. Virginia got the better of Oregon 53-49. As stated off the top, clearly the Cavs are a power-house on the defense side. However, clearly their lack of offensive consistency has been their weak point as well and it’s one which I think the Boilermakers can exploit today as they look to pull off another SU upset. I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 68-67 Purdue. | |||||||
03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -3 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Blazers come in off a big win on the road over Atlanta just last night. Detroit plays with the immediate revenge factor here after falling 117-112 in Portland just last week. The Pistons are in sixth spot in the East, but only 1.5 games ahead of ninth place Orlando, who they picked up a win over in their last outing. Note that Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing the second game of a back-to-back, while Detroit is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Detroit is in a dog fight as it looks to maintain positioning and I expect it to make the most of this situation. T.M. Prediction: 114-103 Detroit. | |||||||
03-29-19 | Wizards +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 124-128 | Win | 100 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Wizards (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Wizards have essentially been eliminated from the playoffs, s they’d need to sweep their remaining six games, while also getting a lot of outside help. The odds are against Washington tremendously, but after breaking a five-game slide with a win over Phoenix last time out, clearly it hasn’t quite thrown in the towel yet. The Jazz come in on the other end of the spectrum having won four straight. Will they “get caught looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight? I think the answer to that is: “very possibly!” Note that Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Utah is just 10-16 ATS this season after having won three of its last four games. I’m grabbing all these points. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Utah. | |||||||
03-29-19 | Auburn v. North Carolina UNDER 165.5 | Top | 97-80 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Auburn/UNC (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL) I’m expecting an all out war between these two evenly matched teams. Both teams easily beat their first two opponents to get to this point, but clearly the competition for each goes up considerably here. Auburn continues to get disrespected here though after winning the SEC. Auburn averages 79.8 PPG and it allows 68.5. The Tar Heels average 86 PPG and they allow 72.5. Note though that the Tigers have seen the total go under the number in nine of their last 12 after scoring 75 points or more over two straight games, while UNC has seen the total go under in its last seven neutral court games in which the total in the contest is set between 160 to 169.5. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 80-75 Tar Heels. | |||||||
03-29-19 | LSU +6 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -109 | 128 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LSU (10* MONEY-MAKER) LSU has had its difficulties over the last month and a half. The Tigers faded down the stretch of the regular season and then faltered in the SEC Tournament. LSU has gotten past Yale and Maryland though and I think it won’t go down without a fight here either vs. Michigan State, which has beaten Bradley and Minnesota. LSU averages 80.9 PPG and it allows 72.9. MSU averages 78.5 PPG and it ranks third in the country in field goal percentage defense. These numbers are comparable. I look for this one to come right down to the wire. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 75-74 MSU. | |||||||
03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 104 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Gonzaga (10* SWEET 16 BEST OF THE BEST) It’s a big time revenge game for the Bulldogs as Florida State laid a 75-60 beatdown on them in the Sweet 16 last year. Both teams have advanced relatively easily to this point. The Noles average only 44.4 percent form the floor, including 33.7 percent from range, making up for it on the other end by conceding only 67 PPG. Gonzaga comes in on top form as well though, most recently destroying Baylor 83-71 on Saturday. “They’re a really good team,” Gonzaga forward Corey Kispert said of the ‘Noles. “They’re going to demand our best. But it’s exactly what we wanted. We wouldn’t want it any other way.” Note that the Bulldogs have been even better on the defensive side this year, allowing just 64.8 PPG. I think the revenge angle works and is the difference. Lay it. T.M. Prediction: 80-68 Zags. | |||||||
03-27-19 | Wizards v. Suns UNDER 231 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wizards/Suns under (10* TOTAL BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST) I base my picks on many different things. This one is based mainly on the overall situation and some strong/relevant O/U ATS stats. As note that Washington comes in “dog tired” after its game at the Lakers on Tuesday night. The Suns are coming off a 125-92 loss to the Jazz, their fourth straight setback. Phoenix is going through the motions as it plays out the tail end of another disastrous campaign. Washington beat Phoenix 149-146 in triple OT at home earlier in the year, but the overall situation points to much more of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around (it’s interesting to note that the Suns have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last ten in trying to revenge an in-season loss vs. a non-conference opponent in which it allowed 140 or more points in.) This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: (FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY) | |||||||
03-26-19 | Magic v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Heat (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Magic torched the 76ers at home just last night, but I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back to back vs. a Heat team fighting for one of the final playoff spots in the East. Also note that Miami plays with “revenge” here after losing two of three in the season series. Note that the Magic are just 5-8 in the second game of back-to-backs this year, averaging 110.8 PPG and allowing 112.2 in those situations. The Heat return home rested after demolishing the Wizards on the road Saturday. Now tied with Orlando for the final spot, clearly the home side will be looking to push the pace from start to finish. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. vs. a team with a losing road record, while Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. T.M. Prediction: 110-95 Heat. | |||||||
03-25-19 | Nets +6 v. Blazers | Top | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Nets come in with some momentum here after back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Kings. Portland comes in having won three straight vs. Detroit, Dallas and Indiana. Two teams hungry for more wins to bolster their playoff positioning from difference conferences collide and I’m expecting a battle until the end. The Nets just held the Lakers offense to 38.5 percent shooting. The Nets are 61-44 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog (including a money-making 17-14 this season), while Portland is just 12-21 ATS in its last 33 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including only 4-6 this year.) Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Nets. | |||||||
03-25-19 | Brown v. Loyola Marymount -4 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Loyola Marymount (10* BLACK-LABEL) This is the quarterfinals of the CBI Tournament. Brown posted an 83-78 win over UAB to advance to face the Lions. Overall the Bears averaged 73.9 PPG, while allowing 68.5. Loyola Marymount lost to Pepperdine in the WCC Tournament, but it bounced back with a victory over California Baptist to reach this point. The Lions averaged only 67.2 PPG, but they made up for it on the end of the court by allowing only 62.7. Note that Brown is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a road underdog of 3.5 to six points, while Loyola Marymount is 9-4 ATS this season after failing to cover in two of its last three vs. the spread. I think the Lions aggressive defensive play proves to be too much for the Bears tonight. T.M. Prediction: 74-63 Loyola Marymount. | |||||||
03-24-19 | Ohio State +6 v. Houston | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ohio State (10* TRADE-MARK) Ohio State enters off a 62-59 win over Iowa State, while Houston rolled to an 84-55 win over Georgia State to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes had a poor shooting game last time out, but their tough defensive play was the difference. Ohio State also collected 38 boards, compared to just 31 for Iowa State. Houston rolled to victory in Round 1, but I think the Cougars, who only average 75.6 PPG, will have a much more difficult time today vs. the buzz saw of an Ohio State defense right now. Additionally note that Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 67-65 Houston. | |||||||
03-24-19 | Nuggets v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 88-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers (10* BLACK-LABEL) Denver smashed the Knicks 111-93 on the road on Friday, while the Pacers return home to friendly confines off a humbling 0-4 Western Conference road trip, including a 112-89 setback to Golden State on Thursday. Part of their losing road trip included a 102-100 loss in Denver on March 16th. With a chance to avenge that loss and to break the four-game slide, I look for the home side to risk life and limb here as it tries to get back into the playoff hunt. Denver comes in complacent at the end of its trip and note that it’s just 1-3 ATS in its last four after six or more SU wins. Additionally note that the Pacers are already 4-1 ATS this year as a home dog of six points or less. T.M. Prediction: 108-103 Pacers. | |||||||
03-23-19 | Suns +10 v. Kings | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Kings are desperately trying to post some wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Suns won’t be in the playoffs, but they’ll be trying to play spoiler here. The Kings come in off a win over the Mavericks, but after three straight losses, including a blowout setback at home to the Pistons, I think the Suns will give Sacramento everything it can handle tonight. Note that Phoenix is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 after two straight blowout losses of 15 points or more, while Sacramento is still only 6-8 ATS vs. the division. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Kings. | |||||||
03-23-19 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -9.5 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Michigan State (10*) These teams are familiar with each other, both hailing from the Big Ten. This is a matchup which does not bode well for the Gophers. These teams played once this season and the Spartans administered a severe 79-5 beatdown on February 9th. Richard Pitino got some sort of mild revenge for his father in yesterday’s upset win over Louisville, but MSU is an entirely different animal. Minnesota is just 1-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Michigan State is 3-0 ATS in the same position. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 80-62 MSU. | |||||||
03-22-19 | UCF v. VCU -1 | Top | 73-58 | Loss | -105 | 109 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: VCU (10* GAME OF WEEK) UCF is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005. The Knights lost their final two games of the year. UCF averages only 72.1 PPG, but makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 64.3. VCU returns after a one-year absence. The Rams had a 12 game win streak snapped by Rhode Island in the A-10 Tournament. The Rams average only 71.4 PPG, but like their counterparts today, they make up for it on the other end by conceding only 61.6 PPG. Note as well that VCU is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 tournament games and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while UCF is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. T.M. Prediction: 67-60 Rams. | |||||||
03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF YEAR) I’m expecting a wide-open “shootout” between these heated Western Conference rivals. The Spurs are looking to get back on track after their nine-game win streak was snapped in a lacklustre effort at home to the Heat. The Rockets are also looking to atone for a poor setback on the road to Memphis. After extended streaks, each of these top Western Conference foes had a letdown last time out, setting up what I believe the perfect spot to pull the trigger on the “over” here. Note as well that the Spurs have seen the total go over the number in five of their last six when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while Houston has seen the total fly over in 21 of its last 31 at home. This number is a little low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-116 Houston. | |||||||
03-21-19 | Pistons -6.5 v. Suns | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Detroit’s been playing a lot better since the All Star break. After back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Raptors, the Pistons will be out to atone for a lacklustre effort vs. the Cavs in their last game. After a three week surge about a month ago, the Suns have predictably come back down to Earth and they enter off a deflating loss at home to the lowly Bulls. Phoenix has struggled in this spot for bettors for quite some time, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. I’m laying the points and expecting the Pistons to get back on track in this favorable spot. T.M. Prediction: 120-108 Pistons. | |||||||
03-21-19 | Montana +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 55-74 | Loss | -106 | 85 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Montana (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I’ll stop short in calling for the outright victory, but with nothing to lose, I think that the hungry Montana Grizzlies can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think that Michigan is still “shell shocked” after losing to rival MSU in the Big Ten Championship Game. Montana won’t be going down without a fight. It’s filled with experienced players as it just captured its second straight Big Sky tournament title. This is a revenge game of sorts as well after Montana fell to Michigan in a 3 vs. 14 matchup last year, 61-47 in Wichita. No outright, but the table is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. T.M. Prediction: 69-62 Michigan. | |||||||
03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +1.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -115 | 61 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: St. John’s (10* TRADE-MARK) These teams are evenly matched. Both teams looked great at times this year and each struggled down the stretch of the season. Hence the reason they find themselves in The First Four. St. John’s plays with “revenge” here though after falling to the Sun Devils 82-70 in Los Angeles last year. Chris Mullin entered his fourth year as head coach of St. John’s this season and for the first time since taking over, he’d finish with a winning regular season record. Winning has come slower than expected for Mullin, but at the end of the day, he has gotten his team to this point: “The fact of the matter is it does not matter,” Mullin said about the fact the selection committee confirmed the Red Storm was the last at-large team in the field. “So it’s kind of quite factual. And so it’s a true new beginning. No. 1, No. 16, 12, there’s no advantage. You gotta go out and play good basketball. You play good basketball, you move on; if you don’t, your season’s over. “I was part of the team that was the last team in the NBA playoffs on the last day of the season. And we upset the No. 1 team with the most wins in the NBA. So it truly does not matter. You don’t have to make that up. That’s not something you have to tell stories about; that’s the fact.” Ultimately I think that ASU’s issues down the stretch can’t be ignored. Look for St. John’s to finally live up to expectations. At least for one night. T.M. Prediction: 77-75 Red Storm. | |||||||
03-20-19 | Jazz v. Knicks +12 | Top | 137-116 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Knicks (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Outright upset? Probably not. But I think the visitors come in complacent and get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Jazz come in off a 116-95 road win over Washington on Monday, while the Knicks were killed 128-92 on the road in Toronto on Monday. Not surprisingly the home side plays with revenge here after falling 129-97 in the first matchup of the season in Utah back on December 29th. Utah’s won four straight, but with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, it’s not to difficult to see the visitors also getting caught “looking past” their opponent as well. Additionally note that Utah is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while New York is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a home dog in the same points range. Yes the Knicks are just counting down the minutes to the off-season, but this one sets up great from a situational stand point. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-105 Utah. | |||||||
03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Nets have lost three straight on their current road trip and I think they’ll stumble again here in this difficult road venue. Sacramento’s playoff hopes are fading, but it comes in with momentum after breaking a three-game slide by knocking off the Bulls on Sunday. I think the Nets are still mentally caught up on their last loss, giving up a ten point lead in the final minute and losing on a last second three-pointer by one point. The Kings clearly haven’t thrown in the towel yet and I think they keep the momentum rolling tonight. Not as well that Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a losing SU record, while the Kings are 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 121-110 Kings. | |||||||
03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple UNDER 155.5 | Top | 81-70 | Win | 100 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Belmont/Temple under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The victor moves on to face Maryland in the first round. Belmont is a very high-scoring team (averages 87.4 PPG), but it’s defense is underrated, allowing 73.9. The Bruins are going to have their hands full with this seasoned AAC defense though. The Owls average just 74.8 PPG, but they allow only 71.2. Belmont lost in the title game of the OVC, while Temple fell in the quarterfinals of the AAC. I’m expecting full court pressure from start to finish and for this one to fall under once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 73-70 Belmont. | |||||||
03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards +4 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Wizards (10* MONEY-MAKER) Utah comes in off a satisfying 114-98 home win over the Nets on Saturday, while the Wizards got back on track in the Nation’s capital with a come from behind 135-128 home win over the Grizzlies. The Jazz got things turned around during a four-game home stand, going 3-1, including posting three straight victories. Utah averages 110.1 PPG and it allows 106.4. The Wizards average 114.6 PPG and they allow 116.9. But the Jazz find themselves in a classic “trap” game here. Winning at home is one thing, but Utah’s achilles heel has been its play on the road. The Wizards aren’t going down without a fight in the weak Eastern Conference and I believe they’ll take their complacent opponent down to the wire. Note as well that Utah is just 11-12 ATS this year off a home victory, while Washington is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog. I smell an upset. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Wizards. | |||||||
03-17-19 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hawks/Magic under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I base my picks on many different things. I think Atlanta comes in dog tired here after its 129-100 loss in Boston last night. The Hawks turned the ball over 17 times and I have a hard time seeing the team “getting up” for the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Orlando got back on track with a win over the Cavs in its latest outing. Orlando’s defense was impressive, holding the Cavs to just 40 percent shooting, including only 7 of 31 from 3-point land. Note that Orlando has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 31 vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400, while ATL has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 13 in the second game of a back to back. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-103 Magic | |||||||
03-17-19 | Michigan v. Michigan State +1 | Top | 60-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Michigan State (10* MONEY MAKER) Michigan finished 15-5 in Big Ten lay, while MSU was 16-4. This is simply a bad matchup for Michigan though. These teams met twice in the regular season, and the Spartans won each time (by 12 at home on March 9th and by 7 on the road on February 24th.) It’s difficult to beat any team three times in one season. But MSU is a pretty good team. And sometimes certain “match ups” give teams issues. I had a play on Old Dominion last night and it had beaten WKU twice in the regular season (by a combined seven points.) I stated in that write-up the exact same thing, that certain “match ups” are just difficult for some teams, and that’s definitely the case here in my opinion as well. I think the Spartans’ depth on both ends of the court once again proves to be too much for the Wolverines to overcome. T.M. Prediction: 70-60 MSU. | |||||||
03-16-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers (10*) The Pacers have won back-to-back games. So have the Nuggets. Both teams will be in the postseason and I don’t expect either to go down without a fight tonight. Indiana comes in off a big come from behind win over OKC at home and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Indiana is 12-7 ATS this year after playing two straight home games, while Denver is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Pacers. | |||||||
03-16-19 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -1 | Top | 56-62 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Old Dominion (NCAA TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR) Clearly these teams are very evenly matched as evidenced by this spread. These teams have played twice this year and ODU came out on top both times. The games were decided by a total of seven points. Both teams come in on top form, but this is a matchup which has confounded WKU this season. I think that’ll again be the case here. ODU is the top seed in the tournament for a reason. Also note that WKU is 0-4 ATS in its last four off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog, while ODU is 3-0 ATS in its last three after two straight close wins by three points or less. T.M. Prediction: 70-53 ODU. | |||||||
03-15-19 | Florida v. LSU -1.5 | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LSU (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think LSU lays the hammer down here. Florida played well in its 66-50 win over Arkansas on Thursday, but I believe the Gators come in tired here. Florida went just 1-8 vs. AP Top 25 teams, the lone victory coming against LSU. Now the rested Tigers, who won five straight to end the regular season, come in rested and ready to avenge that setback. LSU is 3-1 ATS in neutral court games this year and 7-3 ATS in its last ten when playing with five or six days rest. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 77-60 LSU. | |||||||
03-14-19 | Lakers v. Raptors OVER 231 | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Lakers/Raptors over (10*) LA still has an extreme outside shot at making the playoffs. It won’t be going down without a fight here. After losing two of three, Toronto also won’t be taking anything for granted here. I expect a faster paced, wide open affair. A faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more points. Note as well that LA has seen the total go over the number in four of five in trying to revenge a home loss of ten points or more to an opponent, while Toronto has seen the total go over in five of its last six overall this month. T.M. Prediction: 130-115 Raptors. | |||||||
03-14-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota OVER 135.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Penn State/Minnesota OVER (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). I’m expecting a wide open affair in this one. The Nittany Lions finished 7-13 in Big Ten play so they’ll need to win the title for a chance at The Big Dance. Minnesota finished 9-11 in conference play and it’ll have to make the finals for its opportunity to go dancing. These teams fought to a 65-64 contest at Minnesota, a low-scoring game that the Gophers came out on top of. This time around I’m expecting a much more wide-open affair. And the numbers support that, as note that Penn State has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine trying to revenge a close road loss vs. a conference opponent of three points or less, while Minnesota has seen the total fly over in eight of its last 11 conference tournament agates as an underdog in the +2.5 to +3.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 75-73 Minnesota. | |||||||
03-14-19 | Indiana v. Ohio State +1.5 | Top | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ohio State (10* TRADE-MARK) The Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers 55-52 on February 10th and I expect a similar hard-fought, but final score here as well. Ohio State lost four of five down the stretch, including a 73-67 OT loss to Wisconsin at home in its finale. Ohio State is out to play spoiler here, as a loss and Indiana is clearly out of contention for The Big Dance. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 68-60 Ohio State. | |||||||
03-13-19 | Jazz v. Suns +7 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10:05 EST). The Jazz have been playing terribly of late and the Suns have been playing great. I think those trends continue here. Utah enters off consecutive losses to the Thunder and Grizzlies, while the Suns come in off an epic road win at Golden State. Devin Booker had 37 points, eight boards, 11 assists and two steals in the win over the Warriors. The Suns are healthy and confident. The Jazz are in complete disarray and note that they’re a terrible 5-8 ATS in their last 13 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Utah. | |||||||
03-12-19 | Bucks v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 130-113 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Pelicans under (10* O/U BLOWOUT) Milwaukee comes to town focused here after its 121-114 road loss to San Antonio on Sunday. New Orleans is also hoping for a bounce back here after falling 128-116 on the road in Atlanta on Sunday. The Bucks won this matchup at home 123-115 back on December 19th, but I’m expecting a much more defensive battle this time around. Milwaukee averages 117.4 PPG and it allows 108.4. The Pelicans have dropped three straight. They average 115.6 points and they allow 115.4. The Pelicans won’t be playing in the postseason and the whole Anthony Davis fiasco, along with further injuries to other key players, has sent NO’s in to a tail spin. The Bucks will look to take advantage, but there’s no need to get into a “shootout” here. Note that Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number in 18 of its last 28 after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games also. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 117-110 Milwaukee. | |||||||
03-12-19 | Notre Dame -2.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Notre Dame (10* TRADE-MARK) The Irish have lost seven straight and GT may have won three of its final five, but I think the Irish have more than enough talent to get past the first round this year. ND finished 13-18 and GT ended up 14-17. These teams split a pair of games this season. The Irish put up a good fight vs. Pittsburgh last time out, eventually succumbing 56-53. The Yellow Jackets upset NC State 63-61 on the road on Wednesday, but I think an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent here. I’ll point out as well that GT is just 1-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while ND is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 after allowing 60 points or less. Despite the losing streak and the current form of each, I think ND matches up well here. Lay the short points. T.M. Prediction: 67-60 Irish. | |||||||
03-11-19 | Hornets +9 v. Rockets | Top | 106-118 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Charlotte Hornets (10* TRADE-MARK) Clearly the Rockets are the better team, but I think the home side will lets its guard down enough to allow the hungry Hornets to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Charlotte has no more room for error at this point after losing three of its last four. While the outright upset is likely out of the question, we don’t have to question the visitors resolve and focus this evening. But after winning eight straight, including a tiger than expected win over the Mavericks on Sunday, I think the Rockets do come out flat here vs. their lowly non-conference opponent. Note as well that Charlotte is 6-3 ATS already this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while the Rockets are just 11-14 ATS in non-conference contests. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Rockets. | |||||||
03-10-19 | Suns +17 v. Warriors | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Suns had won four of five before a 127-117 setback in Portland last night. Phoenix won’t be resting anyone tonight though, but Golden State most likely will. After losing badly to Boston, the Warriors bounced back with a big win over the Nuggets in their last outing. The one thing that Golden State though has shown this season (especially in the second half) is inconsistency from game to game and it’s also often played down to the level of its competition. I think the Suns got caught looking ahead to this more high profile contest last night. Outright win? Nope. But closer than expected. Note that Phoenix is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Golden State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after leading its previous game by 15 or points at the half. T.M. Prediction: 120-114 Warriors. | |||||||
03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati -1.5 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati (10* BLACK-LABEL) Houston comes in off a 90-79 win over SMU on Thursday, while Cincinnati enters off a 58-55 road loss to UCF. The Bearcats need to win this game though to earn a tie with the Cougars for first place in the AAC. Cincinnati will be the hungrier team here though after its latest loss, but also because it’s out to avenge a 65-58 setback to the Cougars on their home floor in the first meeting this season. Houston is just 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or more. Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. T.M. Prediction: 68-60 Bearcats. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |