Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-18-20 | Indians v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tribe/Pirates UNDER (10* PITCHERS DUEL OF DOOM). I believe this one is going to sneak below the number. The Indians come off an 8-5 win Sunday at Detroit in which they blasted out five home runs. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of a letdown here in this interleague park and facing the lowly Pirates. Pittsburgh has only played twice in the last eight days, so its bullpen is very healthy at the moment. Carlos Carrasco is 2-2 with a 3.22 ERA for the Indians, while JT Brubaker is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA for the Pirates. Look for these two stud pitchers to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall under once it's all said and done! T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Indians. | |||||||
08-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: OVER Mets/Phils (10*). Aaron Nola has been spectacular for the Phillies in the early going. The Phillies held on for a 6-5 win yesterday and I expect a similar final combined score here as well though, as note that this pick is primarily based upon the shoddy play of Mets' starter Steven Matz, who is 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA. Most recently he allowed three home runs and eight runs overall in a 16-4 loss to the Nationals on Monday. Look for these two talented offenses to push this total over as the game comes down the stretch! T.M. Prediction: 8-5 Phililes. | |||||||
08-11-20 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Indians OVER (10* TOTAL U OF THE U). Jon Lester has been brilliant so far for Chicago, going 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA thus far. Everything has gone right so far for the veteran, but I think that he'll have a "hiccup" here sooner than later (also note, Lester was a far from spectacular 5-6 with a 4.90 ERA on the road, while also posting a 5.99 ERA after the All Star Break.) Mike Clevinger has been sidelined with covid protocol here, so Adam Plutko gets the nod and he's 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA, most recently allowing two runs over six innings in a victory over the White Sox. Plutko though is being forced into this spot, so he could be seeing only limited time on the hill this evening. I think these two talented offensive clubs eclipse this total in the early innings; play the over! T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Indians. | |||||||
07-29-20 | Rays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rays/Braves UNDER (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). At the best of times these two teams have issues plating runs, but with these two very competent starting hurlers squaring off to open, I do indeed expect this strong trend of offensive futility to continue. The Rays go with Charlie Morton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits over four innings in a horrible start to the year vs. the Blue Jays on Friday. Morton had a mediocre camp, but after getting that first awkward game out of the way, I believe the veteran will settle down nicely here (owned a 3.11 ERA on the road last year.) Mike Soroka (0-0, 0.00) was brilliant in his first start though for the Braves, going head to head with Jacob deGrom, allowing no runs off four hits while striking out three over six innings. As stated off the top, these starters look poised for a classic battle here and I believe that will help in driving this total well under the posted number! T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Rays. | |||||||
07-28-20 | Braves v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Rays OVER (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER). These teams combined for 19 runs yesterday and I expect a similar final combined slug-fest as well here. Kyle Wright (0-3, 8.69 ERA last year) who has shown promise, but who unfortunately arrived to camp late because of travel issues caused by the pandemic. Wright was terrible in the second half last year as well, going 0-1 with a 13.85 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Rays' Yonny Chirinos (9-5, 3.85 ERA last year), who didn't report to camp until last Sunday due to a positive coronavirus test. Chirinos has been cleared to play and while he's also looked decent in his practice sessions, the book is still clearly out on his form/health. Look for both Wright and Chirinos to only survive a few innings, before making way for the bullpens and expect this total to fly OVER the number! T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Rays. | |||||||
10-04-19 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: NY Yankees/Minnesota Twins OVER (1st 5 Innings) Analysis to come. 10* play T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yankees (1st 5 Innings) | |||||||
10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Braves/STL Cards OVER T.M. Analysis: Unders prevailed in the Wildcard games. But ... This is a hitters park with a pair of lineups that can hit the ball. Mikolas is terrible on the road and Keuchel got destroyed both career starts against Cardinals. The scores of those games were 5-8 and 5-13. Go Over. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Braves | |||||||
10-02-19 | Rays v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tampa Bay/Oakland UNDER One game to decide who's going to play the Houston Astros in the ALDS. I got the UNDER. Charlie Morton will take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight as he looks to shock the fans at the Coliseum in Oakland. Morton has been an absolute beast on the mound YTD as he pitched 16-6 with a 3.05 ERA and 240 punch outs. He allowed only one run over 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA) vs. the A's in two starts this year and he has a dominant 2.97 ERA vs. Oakland in his career. The guy who will be taking the mound for the Athletics is Sean Manaea. Since returning from the IL on September 1st, the southpaw is 4-0 with a mind-blowing 1.21 ERA. He has also been stellar vs. the Rays as he's got only a 2.70 ERA in his 3 career starts against them. Expect both of these pitchers to shine again as they both fight to stay alive. Play the UNDER. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Oakland | |||||||
09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado Rockies/San Fran Giants OVER T.M Analysis: Yesterday was a 2-1 final. Today, we will see 4 or 5 times that many runs. Maybe more. Recently back from injury, Freeland (6.84 ERA) is on a pitch count. Won't be around long. Bullpen shaky. Beede don't like pitching in the afternoon. Seven daytime appearances have resulted in a 1-5 record with a 6.19 ERA. He was pounded in those games, to a clip of a .333 opponent batting average. Number is low. You'll see. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Giants | |||||||
09-19-19 | Tigers v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians OVER Yesterday was a 2-1 game. Today, you will see the bats wake up. Norris (3-12, 4.62 ERA) won't be around long. He's gone 3 innings in 6 straight starts. The Tiger pen has an ERA of roughly 5, a WHIP of roughly 1.5, and it converts barely more than half its save chances. Clevinger's last 2 home starts against Detroit have had finals of 7-2 and 15-0. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Indians | |||||||
09-12-19 | Yankees v. Tigers UNDER 10 | 10-4 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: NY Yankees/Detroit Tigers UNDER (10* TOTAL TORTURER) We've got a very high O|U line to work with in the opener of today's double-header. J.A. Happ (12-8) has been great recently. Entering this matchup vs. the Tigers, Happ has thrown 12 straight scoreless innings of baseball. That makes him 4-1 his L5 starts (including 2 straight road wins.) Boyd is off 2 straight wins and he held the Yankees to 1 run through 6.3 innings back in April. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yankees. | |||||||
09-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Mets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Last night’s game went “under” the number, but I think that runs will be plentiful here. Robbie Ray is 12-7 with a 4.03 ERA for the D-Backs, while Steven Matz is 9-8 with a 4.00 ERA for the Mets. New York gained ground in the Wild Card race with last night’s 3-2 victory, but I definitely expect a higher-scoring slug-fest in tho sone. Arizona is desperate for victories now as well after losing three straight (they won’t be lacking for motivation either after having scored just six runs in the past three games.) From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring affair. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 D-Backs. | |||||||
09-10-19 | Rays v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rays/Rangers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) For this selection I’m putting my full focus onto the starting pitchers. Ryan Yarbough is 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA this year for the Rays, while Lance Lynn has evolved into the Rangers’ ace this year by going 14-10 with a 3.81 ERA. Additionally note that TB has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 27 after a win by four or more runs, while Texas has seen the total dip under in nine of 13 already this season at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Rangers. | |||||||
09-09-19 | A's v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-15 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) These two teams are known for their offensive prowess, but I believe it’ll be the men on the mound who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Mike Fiers is 14-3 with a 3.51 ERA for Oakland, while Zack Greinke is 14-5 with a 3.09 ERA for the Astros. Houston exploded for a 21-1 win over the Mariners yesterday, but I’m expecting a classic “duel” here between these two “studs.” Note that Oakland has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 this year already as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Houston has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 14 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Astros. | |||||||
09-05-19 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Braves under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Clearly these are two of the best offensive clubs, not only in the Senior Circuit, but in the entire league. That said, these are two very capable starting hurlers and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Stephen Strasburg is 16-5 with a 3.47 ERA, while Atlanta’s Max Fried is 15-4 with a 4.05 ERA. Strasburg enters on top form, off one of his best outings of all time, striking out 14 and allowing two hits and zero walks over eight scoreless frames vs. the Marlins. Fried allowed four runs over seven innings in a win over the White Sox on Friday, posting a career high 11 in the process. Look for these two red hot starters to battle deep and play the under with confidence. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 ATL. | |||||||
09-04-19 | Twins v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL CASH MACHINE). Obviously these two line-ups feature plenty of offensive talent, but I think it’ll be the starting pitchers who become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Jose Berrios is 11-7 with a 3.57 ERA for the Twins, while Eduardo Rodriguez is 16-5 with a 3.97 ERA for the Red Sox. Rodriguez has been Boston’s best pitcher of late, going 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA over six August starts. Berrios struggled badly in August, but despite being 0-3 to the Sox lifetime, he still sports a sharp 3.20 ERA in those contests. I think Berrios bounces back and I expect Rodriguez to carry over his recent momentum as well. This one has “duel” written all over it, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Red Sox. | |||||||
09-03-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Indians over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) Cleveland is desperate for victories after a recent scuffling stretch and I expect it to make the most of this opportunity. The Tribe made the most of yesterday’s 11-3 series opening win and I expect a similar final combined score here. Mike Clevinger has been awesome for Cleveland, but this pick is based primarily on the ineptitude of White Sox’ starter Dylan Cease (3-7, 6.92), who went just two innings in his last start vs. the Twins, getting shelled for eight runs off ten hits. Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 14 in revenging a loss where an opponent score ten or more runs, while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in both games that it’s played in this season as a home fav in the -250 to -330 range. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Indians. | |||||||
08-30-19 | White Sox v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Braves under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Braves are in the drivers seat right now after winning nine of their last 11. Chicago’s Ivan Nova is 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA and he’ll be trying his best to slow down surging Atlanta. He’ll have a difficult time throwing opposite Max Fried, who is 14-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Note though that Nova is on fire, literally the best pitcher in all of MLB right now, going 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA since July 22nd. Also note that over four career starts vs. the Braves he’s 3-1 with a 1.98 ERA. Look for these two starters to throw into the latter innings and for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Braves. | |||||||
08-28-19 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Mets under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER). Two desperate teams square off on Wednesday night and each will trot out a competent starting pitcher. Suffice it to say, I believe that runs will be at a premium tonight. The Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks, who is 9-9 with a 3.20 ERA, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard, who is 9-6 with a 3.71 ERA. Chicago earned a crucial 5-2 win in yesterday’s series opener, snapping a three-game losing streak. I believe that today’s contest sets up as even more of a “duel.” Both Syndergaard and Hendricks come in on top form, having earned victories with scoreless outing in their most recent starts on Thursday. When you add it all up, this one has “under” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 New York. | |||||||
08-27-19 | A's v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Royals over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Oakland is surging towards the post-season with a 75-55 record. The A’s turn to Mike Fiers in this one and he’s so far 12-3 with a 3.46 ERA and a big reason why Oakland is where it is right now. The home side counters with Mike Montgomery, who is just 3-6 with a poor 5.01 ERA. Oakland won the opener of this series 19-4 last night and I believe a similar final combined score is in the cards on Tuesday as well. Fiers has been downright filthy over the last two months (1-0, 2.44 ERA over his past 19 trips to the hill), however it’s very interesting to note that he’s a poor 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Royals. Note that Oakland has seen the total go over the number in 21 of 33 this years a -150 favorite or higher already, while KC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of four already this year in revenging a home blowout loss of eight or more runs. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 9-5 A’s. | |||||||
08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Phillies under (10* SUPER TOTAL) The Phillies’ just lost two of three in Miami and they’ll be desperate to get things turned around here. Jason Vargas is 6-6 with a 3.99 ERA and while he’s 0-1 over four starts for Philadelphia, he’s still posted a sharp 3.61 ERA. Pittsburgh is only 8-30 since the All Star break, thanks in part to poor starting pitching and an anemic hitting lineup. And after sweeping three straight over the Reds, an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion. Musgrove won’t go down without a fight though, as he faced the Phillies on July 20th, giving up no earned runs and striking out eight over six frames of work. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the a lower-scoring “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
08-25-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Clayton Kershaw is 13-2 with a 2.71 ERA and he’s been the model of consistency for the Dodgers this season. Domingo German is 16-3 with a 5.14 ERA for the Yanks and he enters off an uncharacteristically poor outing in which he allowed six runs over six innings. These are two great pitchers, but there’s no question that each faces a challenging line-up. Game 1 went well over the number in New York’s win, but Game 2 was a rule in last night’s 2-1 victory for the Dodgers. Note though that New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine interleague road games after being held to one run or less in its previous game. The writing is on the wall and a slug-fest is in the cards. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Dodgers. | |||||||
08-23-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 105 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Hyun-Jin Ryu is 12-3 with a 1.64 ERA this season for the Dodgers, while James Paxton is 9-6 with a 4.53 ERA for the Yankees. Ryu though enters off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs over five innings in a loss to the Braves. The Yanks’ bats have quieted down some of late, but clearly they’re going to be focused on this particular opponent this weekend. Paxton most recently allowed five runs over six innings in a no-decision at Dodger Stadium back in 2015. I think the stage is set for some offensive fireworks between MLB’s best teams in what is very likely going to be a World Series preview. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Dodgers. | |||||||
08-20-19 | Royals v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Orioles under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK). Two pitchers who would like a “mulligan” on their respective seasons collide in this American League matchup of cellar dwellers. But both Brad Keller and Dylan Bundy greatly benefit in facing their respective soft-hitting opponents this evening and when the smoke does finally clear, I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Last night the Royals managed a 5-4 win, but I think we’ll see much more of a “duel” here. Keller has lost four in a row, but note that the anemic Royals have scored only five runs in those contests. Additionally note that Keller is a spectacular 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in one career starts vs. the O’s. Bundy’s had a terrible overall season, but he’s been better of late and he has a big opportunity today facing the lowly Royals. Look for this one to sneak under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Orioles. | |||||||
08-19-19 | Padres v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Reds over (10* TOTAL TRADE-MARK) The recent form of each starting pitcher is the deciding reason why I like the “over” in this one. The Padres’ Eric Lauer is 6-8 with a 4.55 ERA and he’s been particularly ineffective on the road by going just 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Trevor Bauer is 10-9 with a 4.12 ERA for the Reds and while he had a strong start for his new team, he comes in off one of his worst outings of his career, getting shelled for nine runs off eight hits with two walks over 4.1 innings. I believe each starter gets the hook early and as a result, I’m playing the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Reds. | |||||||
08-16-19 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 12 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Red Sox under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I’m expecting this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done. The Orioles hand the ball to Aaron Brooks, who is 2-6 with a 6.35 ERA. Brooks comes in off back-to-back poor outings and now owns a 59:21 K:BB over 71.2 innings. Brooks will be opposed by Rick Porcello, who is 10-9 with a 5.67 ERA. Porcello is sticking in the starting rotation out of necessity, but the veteran clearly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around before the end of the season. So while both pitchers haven’t been great to this point, I will point out that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 road games as an American League underdog in the +150 to +200 range. I think Porcello comes in focused and takes advantage of this favorable matchup. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Red Sox. | |||||||
08-14-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 11 | Top | 5-6 | Push | 0 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yankees under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) So far every game in this series has flown over the number, with the Yanks continuing their domination of the Orioles, but I believe that the finale finally sets up as more of a “duel.” Dylan Bundy is just 5-12 with a 5.04 ERA for Baltimore this year, but he enters off a decent outing vs. Houston Friday, allowing two runs over six innings, making it the third time in four trips to the hill that he’s allowed two runs or fewer. JA Happ gets the nod for the home side and he’s 9-7 with a 5.48 ERA this season. Happ for the most part has been a major disappointment for New York this year after coming over from the Blue Jays, but the veteran has the experience and tools in place to finish up strong before the playoffs (note as well that Happ is a solid 8-7 with a 3.60 ERA in 24 career appearances vs. the Orioles.) When you add it all up, I think this one sneaks below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Yanks. | |||||||
08-13-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yankees under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 of yesterday’s double-header between these teams and unfortunately, that was a loser. Both games blasted past the posted number, with the Yanks resuming their dominance of the lowly Orioles with a couple of blowout victories. I believe today’s contest sets up as more of a “duel” finally. John Means is 8-7 with a 3.36 ERA for the Orioles this year and while he enters off an outing to forget, note that he’s a sharp 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA in all “night” contests this season. The Yanks’ Domingo German is 15-2 with a 4.05 ERA this season and has a sharp 1.12 WHIP and a whopping 117/25 K/W as well. I expect the starters to go deep and for this one to stay well under once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. | |||||||
08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/Yanks under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) New York leads the season series 13-2. The Yanks enter on a 12-game win streak vs. the Orioles. But after hitting 16 homers in Baltimore last week, I think the opener of this double-header sets up as more of a “duel.” James Paxton comes in on top form for New York, going 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA over his last two starts (note that Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six career outings vs. Baltimore.) Gabriel Ynoa is just 1-6 with a 5.57 ERA for Baltimore this season, including 0-1 with a 3.99 ERA in two career starts vs. New York. Note though that the Orioles have seen the total go under the number in 15 of their last 20 American League day road game as an underdog in the +175 to +275 range. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yanks. | |||||||
08-11-19 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Reds under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) I think that Jon Lester and Luis Castillo are primed for a classic “duel” on Sunday afternoon. Cincinnati won 10-1 on Saturday behind three home runs from 25 year old Aristides Aquino. Lester is 9-8 with a 4.39 ERA and he enters off his worst start of his career, allowing 11 runs off ten hits over four innings in an 11-4 loss to the A’s. The 35-year old has to be feeling good about a bounce back here though as he’s 7-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Reds. Castillo is 11-4 with a 2.63 ERA and he’s 2-1 vs. the Cubs this year and 4-2 with a 3.29 ERA in nine career starts against them. I think the finale of this series sets up as a “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Reds. | |||||||
08-09-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Dodgers under (10* TOTAL OF YEAR) These are two really good pitchers going up against two really good hitting line-ups. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of night though, I do indeed believe it’ll be the starting hurlers who are the “main story-lines” in tomorrow’s summaries. Arizona ace Robbie Ray is 10-7 with a 4.03 ERA this year and so far he owns a sharp 178:58 K:BB over 134 innings of work. Walker Buehler gets the nod for the home side and he’s 10-2 with a tiny 3.22 ERA. Buehler comes in off a strong outing vs. the Padres on Saturday, allowing one run while striking out 15 over a complete nine innings. So far over 131.1 innings the 25-year old had 152 strikeouts. Look for these two horses to battle deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number. T.M. Prediction: D-Backs/Dodgers. | |||||||
08-07-19 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 14-2 | Loss | -112 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/O’s under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) While yesterday’s Yankees’ victory resulted in an “over,” I believe tonight’s contest sets up as more of a “duel.” John Means is 8-6 with a 3.12 ERA for Baltimore this year and he has to be feeling confident, as he’s 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three relief appearances vs. the Yanks. New York’s James Paxton is only 6-6 with a 4.61 ERA this season, but he’s 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA lifetime vs. Baltimore. Note as well that the Yanks have seen the total go under in five of their last seven AL road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Yanks. | |||||||
08-04-19 | Tigers v. Rangers UNDER 11.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tigers/Rangers under (10*) Jordan Zimmermann won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. The veteran was 7-8 with a 4.52 ERA last year, but he took a major step back this season by going just 1-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Zimmermann though enters off his best start of the year (easily), allowing two runs off four hits over six inning with two strikeouts and on walk in a 7-2 win over the Angels on Monday. He’ll be opposed by Pedrao Payano, who is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. Payano most recently gave up three run over six innings in a no-decision vs. the dangerous A’s on Sunday. I expect these two hungry starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is just a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Rangers. | |||||||
08-03-19 | White Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Phillis over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) I think the stage is set for a “slug-fest” in this one. Last night these teams played to a 4-3, 15 inning contest in which the White Sox came out on top of. Chicago might not feel as confident with Ross Detwiler on the mound as he’s so far 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA, and he’s a brutal 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in 6 2/3’s career innings vs. Philadelphia. Aaron Nola continues to be a bright spot, but note that the Phillies have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 interleague home games after scoring three runs or less in a loss that occurred in extra frames. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Phillies. | |||||||
08-02-19 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Dodgers over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) I just don’t trust either of these starting pitchers. The Padres Eric Lauer is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA and he most recently was shelled for four runs off six hits with three walks and a K over 2.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on Thursday. The Dodgers hand the ball to Dustin May (0-0, 0.00) who makes his major league debut tonight. Over five starts in Triple A he posted a 2.30 ERA, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at the major league level. In a contest in which I expect each starter to “get the hook” early, I’m expecting this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Dodgers. | |||||||
08-01-19 | Twins v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Marlins under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). Jordan Yamamoto is 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA and while he’s struggled over his last three starts, I believe he’ll settle down here vs. Michael Pineda and the Twins. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series and I’m expecting a bit of a “duel” in the finale. Pineda comes in on top form having gone 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts (Pineda is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in one start vs. Miami.) As mentioned above, Yamamoto has struggled over the last month, but note that he’s been at his best in all “night” games this year by going 3-1 with a tiny 2.48 ERA. I think this one sneaks under once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Twins. | |||||||
07-31-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards under (10*) For a number of different reasons I think this one sets up as duel between the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks, who is 7-8 with a 3.26 ERA and the Cards’ Miles Mikolas, who is 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA. St. Louis took the series opener 2-1 last night and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Mikolas comes in off a strong start vs. Pittsburgh, allowing three runs over six innings (Mikolas is also 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA in eight career games vs. Chicago.) Hendricks is 7-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 16 career starts vs. St. Louis. This one sets up as a “duel.” T.M. Prediction: 2-1 Cardinals. | |||||||
07-30-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) These clubs are both pushing for a playoff spot. Neither starter has been great this year either, as Yu Darvish is just 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA for Chicago, while Adam Wainwright is only 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up great as a higher-scoring slug-fest, but the numbers/trends also point that direction as well, as note that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 20 as a road dog this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in five of its last six after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards. | |||||||
07-29-19 | Braves v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Nationals under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two teams known for their offensive prowess go head to head in this series. Two pitchers who come in red hot also collide though and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Braves’ Dallas Keuchel has had issues with the Nationals in the past, but in his last start he gave up two runs over six innings to go along with 12 strikeouts in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Royals. The Braves lost two key sluggers as well recent in Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson. Nationals’ starter Patrick Corbin is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA overall, but he’s 5-1 with a 1.85 ERA in ten games vs. Atlanta lifetime (Corbin also enters off a strong performance, going six scoreless vs. Colorado in front of the home town crowd.) I look for these starter to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Nationals. | |||||||
07-26-19 | Pirates v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Mets over (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL). Neither of these starters instills much confidence. Zach Wheeler is 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA for the Mets, while rookie Dario Agrazal is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Pirates. Wheeler last pitched on July 7th, allowing six runs over five innings in an 8-3 loss to the Phillies. Pittsburgh will be desperate to break a six-game slide, but Agrazal is likely to have his hands full here, as note that the Pirates have seen the total fly over the number in 25 of 38 this year when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5. Additionally note that the Mets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of 17 this season in the same position. This number is a tad low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Mets. | |||||||
07-25-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yankees/Red Sox under (10*) Masahiro Tanaka is 7-5 with a 4.00 ERA for the Yankees, while Rick Porcello is 8-7 with a 5.61 ERA for the Red Sox. This is the first time the teams have met in Boston this season. These two pitchers met in London in a two-game series and neither made it out of the first inning. Porcello gave up six runs, while Tanaka was also rocked for six as well. Clearly something about the atmosphere/surroundings played a part in each of these normally steady hurlers performance that day. Both sides feature plenty of home run power, but I think the overall situation points to a lower-scoring “duel,” as I look for these hungry hurlers to battle deep into the latter frames as they set out to atone for their earlier disappointing performances. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Yanks. | |||||||
07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Braves under (10* TRADE-MARK) Two red hot hurlers collide in this interleague contest and I believe that runs will be at a premium. The Royals’ Brad Keller is 6-9 with a 4.18 ERA, while the Braves’ Julio Teheran is 5-6 with a 3.61 ERA overall this year. Keller though is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA with 16 K’s over 20 innings of work this month, while Teheran has posted a tiny 1.53 ERA in June spanning 17 2/3’s innings of work. I think the writing is on the wall and a classic “duel” is in the cards. Considering the recent form of these starters, I think this number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Braves. | |||||||
07-23-19 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Mets under (10*) I’m making a play both on the “under” and on the home side in this game. I simply feel that the veteran Jason Vargas is going to match Padres rookie Chris Paddack inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I definitely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Paddack blanked the Mets over eight innings on May 6th. Vargas comes in off a win over the Twins, allowing three runs over six innings. Note though that San Diego has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 vs. left-handed starters, while New York has seen the total dip under in seven of 11 as a home underdog. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Mets. | |||||||
07-22-19 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orioles/D-Backs under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Aaron Brooks is just 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA and while he’s been “hit or miss” in a starters role for the lowly Orioles, this play is almost entirely based upon Arizona starter Robbie Ray, who is 8-6 with a 3.92 ERA this year and who is rumored to be on the trading block. Ray will want to be at his best for any possible suitors, which includes the Yankees. Ray comes in on top form, having won three straight trips to the hill, allowing a combined six runs over 19 innings with eight walks and 23 K’s in that span. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 14 this year after allowing one run or less, while Arizona has seen the total go under in ten of its last 14 at home when the total is set between 9 and 9.5. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 D-Backs. | |||||||
07-05-19 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Brewers/Pirates under (8*) The Brewers come in struggling at the plate, having been shutout in back-to-back games. That’s unfortunate news for Milwaukee, as it has to face red hot Pirates’ starter Steven Brault, who is 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA overall, but who is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA since joining the rotation in May. Brault faced Milwaukee last weekend and he gave up one run over five innings. The struggling visiting side counters with Zach Davies, who is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA overall and who is already 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA in three match-ups vs. Pittsburgh this season. Considering the Brewers form as the first half closes and how well these pitchers have faired of late, I do indeed feel this total is much too high. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Brewers. | |||||||
07-04-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 10 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Nationals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). I think this number is a little high. The home side hands the ball to veteran Anibal Sanchez, who is 4-6 with a 3.82 ERA overall, but who enters on top of his game right now with four straight victories (note that in six games vs. the Fish lifetime he owns a 3.33 ERA.) Most recently Sanchez allowed one run over six innings in a win over the Tigers. The Marlins counter with Elieser Hernandez, who is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA, but who also comes into this contest off a strong performance, giving up two runs off seven K’s with two walks over 5 2/3’s innings in a win over the Phillies on Friday. Note as well that Miami’s seen the total go under in 20 of 28 this year as a road dog of +150 or more, while Washington has seen the total dip under in 17 of its last 27 as a -150 favorite or higher. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Nationals. | |||||||
07-03-19 | Cardinals v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/M’s under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Adam Wainwright is 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA this year for the Cards, while Mike Leake is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA vs. the Mariners. Seattle came from behind to win 5-4 last night, but I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The loss dropped the Cards to 41-42 on the season, while the victory snapped a four-game slide for the M’s. Wainwright is 0-2 over his last three trips to the mound, despite not giving up more than three runs in any outing (note that Wainwright is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. Seattle.) Leake’s four-game win streak was snapped last time out vs. Milwaukee, allowing four runs over six innings. I’ll point out thought that the last placed Mariners have seen the total go under the number in ten of their last 13 home games after scoring five or more runs in a victory in their previous contest. I definitely feel that tonight’s contest sets up as a “duel,” rather than a high-scoring “slug-fest.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. | |||||||
07-02-19 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Pirates under (8* MONEY-MAKER) A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. Pittsburgh pounded out 23 hits in Monday’s 18-5 win, dropping Chicago to 16-24 on the road, including only 4-13 in its last 17 away from friendly confines. The Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks to stop the bleeding. Hendricks, who is 7-5 with a 3.36 ERA, will be opposed by Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove, who is 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA. Hendricks returns from a shot stint on the DL; note that he’s 6-1 with a 2.52 ERA over his last nine appearances. Musgrove has won his last two starts, giving up only a single run over 13 innings with 13 strikeouts and zero walks. I’m expecting these two red hot starters to battle deep and for this total to stay well below the posted number. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cubs. | |||||||
07-01-19 | Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Jays UNDER (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Glen Sparkman is 2-3 with a 4.07 ERA this season for the Royals, while Clayton Richard is 0-4 with a 6.89 ERA for Toronto. The Royals exploded for a 7-6 victory last night, but I think it’ll be a much lower-scoring affair in the finale on Canada Day this afternoon. Sparkman has faced the Jays once and he’d give up two runs over four innings and his team won 6-2 last season. Richard has struggled somewhat of late, but note that he owns a 3.91 ERA in eight career games vs. KC. Note that KC has already seen the total go under the number in all four games it’s played in this year following a one run victory, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in 11 of 15 as a home favorite in the -110 to -150 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Jays. | |||||||
06-29-19 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rangers/Rays over (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Brendan McKay makes his MLB debut tonight for the Rays. McKay was called up after the Rays 5-2, 18-inning win over the Twins on Thursday out of necessity. Tampa will be eager to return to form here after getting shutout 5-0 last night. The Rays have now lost 12 of their last 17. Texas looks to keep the good times rolling as it comes in having won six straight. Adrian Sampson is 6-4 with a 4.14 ERA for the visitors and he’s been hit or miss this year. Note that Texas has seen the total go over in 17 of 28 this season vs. teams with winning records, while Tampa has seen the total soar over in 13 of 20 this year at home when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Rangers. | |||||||
06-27-19 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 10.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Mariners/Brewers under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Seattle’s won six of its last seven. The M’s have averaged 7.4 runs over that stretch, but I expect more of a pitchers duel between these interleague foes on Thursday afternoon. Seattle’s turned things around of late by going 6-1 in its last seven, thanks to some big production at the plate, but I think it’ll have its hands full Chase Anderson, who is 3-2 with a 4.70 ERA thus far. Anderson comes in highly focused here after going 0-2 over his last four starts. Mike Leake of the Mariners is 7-6 with a 4.54 ERA and he enters on top form, having gone 4-0 over his past five starts. I think the situation points to a lower-scoring under on Thursday afternoon. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mariners. | |||||||
06-25-19 | Pirates v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Astros under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) The Astros finally broke their seven game slide with a win in New York on Sunday. The home side looks to carry that momentum over in the opener of this interleague series by handing the ball to Gerrit Cole, who is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA so far this season. Cole is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA over his past four starts and he clearly won’t be lacking for motivation facing his former team for the first time. The visitors go with Trevor Williams, who is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA. Williams struggled in his first start back from injury vs. the Tigers, but he’ll come in confident knowing that he’s a sharp 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA in 11 interleague starts. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after allowing ten runs or more in its previous contest, while Houston has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. | |||||||
06-25-19 | Royals v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 8-6 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Indians under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Two hungry and competent starters collide in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. The royals go with Glenn Sparkman, who is 2-3, 3.62 ERA, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber, who is 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Bieber comes in off a loss despite allowing only two runs with eight strikeouts over six innings vs. the Rangers on Thursday, while Sparkman comes in off a gem as well, conceding one run over seven innings vs. the hard-hitting Twins on Thursday. Note that the Royals have seen the total go under in four of their last five after allowing three runs or less in two straight games, while Cleveland has seen the total dip under in 22 of its last 37 at home. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Indians. | |||||||
06-24-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees UNDER 10.5 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Yanks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Yanks eight-game win streak came to an abrupt halt vs. the Astros yesterday and I think the offense falters here as well in the opener of this three-game series vs. the Jays. Toronto is already looking ahead to next season, but it comes in off back-to-back wins in Boston. The Yankees go with CC Sabathia, who earned his 250th career win last time out, giving up one run over six innings vs. the Rays on Wednesday. Overall Sabathia is 18-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 35 career starts vs. the Jays. Aaron Sanchez has struggled for the Jays this year, but note that he’s 2-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 15 appearances vs. New York. Toronto’s seen the total go under in seven of its last nine after back-to-back road victories, while NY has seen the total dip under in 14 of 23 already this season as a home fav of -150 or higher. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Yanks. | |||||||
06-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Brewers under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Milwaukee rallied from a three-run first-inning deficit on Saturday to beat Cincinnati 6-5, breaking its five-game losing slide in the process. That loss snapped the Reds season-best six-game win skein. After yesterday’s slug-fest, I expect more of a “duel” in Sunday’s rubber match. The home side turns to Brandon Woodruff, who has had issues with the Reds in the past, but who is 8-2 with a 4.02 ERA this season. The visitors turn to Anthony DeSclafani, who is 4-3 with a 4.22 ERA this year. Note though that the Reds have seen the total go under the number in 14 of 20 already this season when playing as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Brewers have seen the total dip under the number in nine of their last 12 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Brewers. | |||||||
06-22-19 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Astros/Yankees under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Yankees have won seven straight, while Houston has dropped six in a row. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but for this particular selection I’m focusing entirely on the starting pitchers. The home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka, who is 5-5 with a 3.23 ERA and who comes in off a commanding performance vs. the Rays on Monday, going the distance and allowing just two hits. Tanaka comes in on top form off back-to-back victories. The Astros are only hitting .189 collectively during their slide and they counter with Wade Miley, who is 6-4 with a 3.52 ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings in a loss to the Reds. Note that Houston has seen the total go under in 14 of 19 vs. AL East opponents this season, while NY has seen the total dip below the number in eight of 12 this season as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. | |||||||
06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 107 | 27 h 11 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Padres/Pirates under (8* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL). The Padres look poised for a letdown here after sweeping the Brewers and facing the lowly Pirates. Two pitchers who have struggled for the most part this year, but who won’t be lacking for motivation tonight collide and I believe it all adds up to a lower-scoring “under” in the opener of this three-game series. The visitors go with Eric Lauer, who is 5-6 with a 4.60 ERA, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove, who is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA. The Pirates have gone 3-2 in their last five games. Both teams had yesterday off after posting identical 8-7 victories on Wednesday, but all the numbers/trends point to a “duel,” as note that SD has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last seven when trying to revenge a same season three game sweep at home vs. an opponent, while Pittsburgh’s seen the total dip under in four of its last five at home when the money line is set between -125 and +125. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Pirates. | |||||||
06-20-19 | Indians v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indians/Rangers under (8* BLACK-LABEL). A couple of competent hurlers collide in this one on Thursday afternoon and I believe runs are going to be at a premium. After losing the opener of this four-game series, the Indians have scored ten runs in each of their past two victories. But while the Indians have plated at least eight runs in six of their past 13, I think they’ll have their hands full with veteran Mike Minor, who is 6-4 with a 2.63 ERA and who has struck out 99 over 95 2/3’s frames of work this year (note that over six relief appearances vs. the Tribe he’s struck out 14 and conceded four hits over 8 1/3’s scoreless innings.) The visitors go with Shane Bieber, who is 6-2 with a 3.92 ERA and who is looking to win a fifth straight decision (most recently struck out 12 over eight innings and agave up two runs and one walk in a victory over the Tigers.) Note that Cleveland has seen the total dip under in 11 of 17 on the road already this year as a favorite in the -100 to -150 range, while Texas has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Tribe. | |||||||
06-18-19 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Mets/Braves under (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Braves have been putting runs on the board at a prodigious rate of late, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom, who has been sharp himself and who has dominated this matchup throughout his career. Braves’ starter Julio Teheran is also in fine form right now and he’s also had success vs. the Mets in the past. I think these two veterans will fight deep into the latter frames. deGrom, who is 3-6 with a 3.38 ERA, has a 2.29 ERA in three appearances in June. He also has a 1.86 ERA in 116 frames vs. the Braves. Teheran is 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA overall this season and he’s 10-7 with a tiny 2.35 ERA in 26 career appearances vs. the Mets. All signs point to a low-scoring pitchers duel. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Mets. | |||||||
06-15-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Nationals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The visitors hand the ball to Taylor Clarke, who is 1-2 with a 5.26 ERA. The home side counters with Stephen Strasburg, who is 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA. Strasburg has always fared well vs. the D-Backs, going 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA in 11 career match ups. Arizona looks to get back on track after last night’s 7-3 loss, with Nats’ co-ace Max Scherzer striking out ten. Note that Arizona has seen the total dip under the number in 16 of its last 24 “day” games, while Washington has seen the total go under in for of its last five following a victory. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Nationals. | |||||||
06-12-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rangers/Red Sox under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER). Texas has pulled off back-to-back upsets to open this series. I had the Rangers as a +200 dog in the first game. The visitors go with Lance Lynn, who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the A’s last time out. Lynn comes in on top form, having posted six straight quality starts. The home side goes with Rick Porcello, who gave up four runs off eight hits over six innings vs. the Rays in his last starts. Boston will clearly be leaning heavily on the veteran today to break the two-game slide and help improve upon its sub-par 15-16 record at home. Note that Texas has still seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 33 following a win and in 16 of 20 this year following two or more consecutive wins. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Red Sox. | |||||||
06-11-19 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Under Mariners/Twins (9* BLACK-LABEL) I think this number is a little high despite these being the top two teams as far as “home runs” are concerned. The home side hands the ball to Martin Perez, who is 7-2 with a 3.72 ERA and who is a sharp 8-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 22 career appearances and 20 starts vs. the Mariners. The visitors counter with Mike Leake, who is 5-6 with a 4.30 ERA. Leake enters off one of the best starts of his career, off a complete-game 14-1 win over the Astros, allowing six hits and two walks while striking out five. Note that Leake is 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 off a win of six runs or more over a division rival, while Minnesota has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 at home so far this season. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. | |||||||
06-11-19 | Nationals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 101 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Sox over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Nationals won 12-1 in the series opener last night and while I’m not expecting such a lop-sided margin of victory here, I do think that these teams will combine to put the same or even more runs on the board. Patrick Corbin gets the call for the Nats and he’s 5-4 with a 3.59 ERA. But Corbin has been terrible of late, giving up eight runs over two innings to the Reds, before then allowing five runs over five innings to the Padres on Thursday. The White Sox will be eager to get some production tonight after yesterday’s humbling defeat. Chicago goes with the erratic Manny Banuelos (3-4, 7.36 ERA) who actually earned a victory in his last start, giving up three runs over five innings vs. the Indians. Despite that though I’ll point out that the White Sox have seen the total go over the number in all three games so far this year in which they’re a +175 or higher underdog. Also note that Washington has seen the total go over in all three games so far this year after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Nationals. | |||||||
06-08-19 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Indians under (10* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL) CC Sabathia gets the nod for the Yanks and he’s so far 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA. Sabathia is expected to retire at the end of the season, but he’s after his 250th victory tonight. Sabathia is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Indians. Sabathia will look to help his team bounce back from yesterday’s 5-2 setback. The home side goes with Adam Plutko, who is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA and who has been called up from Triple-A Columbus to make this start. Note though that New York has seen the total dip under in three of four already this year after having lost four of its last five games while the Indians have seen the total go under in four of five this season as a home dog. New York’s blistering start to the year despite a rash of injuries appears to now definitely be heading in the opposite direction. Until those big bats do finally return, I expect that trend to continue at the plate for the Yanks. This total is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 Yanks. | |||||||
06-07-19 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Royals under (8*) Both of these teams enter at under .500 after the first two months of the season. Note though that only the Tigers have fewer that KC’s 65 home runs among teams with more than its 543 K’s (8.75 per contest.) Note that the Royals have now struck out 129 times over their past 13 games. Ivan Nova is 3-5 with a 6.24 ERA for Chicago this year, while Home Bailey is 4-6 with a 6.05 ERA for the Royals. Look closer though and we see that Nova has a sharp 3.32 ERA over his past three trips to the hill. Bailey has been “hit or miss” the last few seasons, but note that KC has seen the total dip under the number in 13 of its last 18 vs. clubs with losing records. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Royals. | |||||||
06-06-19 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Cards under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Last night’s game was postponed and the two starters which were supposed to go in that one, will now get the call here. I’m basing this pick primarily on the form of Cardinals’ starter Dakota Hudson, who comes in on the top of his game. Hudson is 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA overall and he went 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts in may. The Reds won Tuesday’s series opener 4-1 and they’ll go with Anthony DeSclafani, who is just 2-3 with a 4.97 ERA this year, but who is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA litetime vs. St. Louis. Cincinnati has seen the total go under in 13 of 22 this year as a road dog, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in nine of 15 vs. clubs with losing records this season. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. | |||||||
06-05-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers/Diamondbacks over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) LA has taken the first two games of this series. The Diamondbacks have been stifled early by LA’s dominant pitching and it won’t get too much easier facing Kenta Maeda, who is 7-2 with a 3.61 ERA. He’s won four straight starts, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here facing this desperate Arizona team. Note as well that Maeda is just 5-5 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 appearances vs. Arizona lifetime, which includes an atrocious 7.31 ERA over 28 1/3’s innings at Chase Field. The D-Backs trot out rookie right-hander Jon Duplantier, who is 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. He made his debut on Friday and gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Friday. Clearly the book is still out on Duplantier at this point and shutting down anemic New York is one thing, but slowing down this offensive juggernaut in LA is definitely another. LA has seen the total go over in 11 of 17 already this year as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 27 vs. the division this season. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Dodgers. | |||||||
06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Padres over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Theses teams have split the first two games of this series. The lowly visiting side goes with Trevor Richards, who is 2-5 with a 3.82 ERA, while the home side goes with Matt Strahm, who is 2-4 with a 3.21 ERA. Miami won’t be rolling over here as it has in fact been playing a lot better of late, winning four of its last six and going 10-5 since mid May. Richards and Strahm have been above average, this season, but note that Miami has seen the total go over in four of its last six as a road dog of +175 or higher, while SD has seen the total sail over in ten of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Padres. | |||||||
06-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Cards over (8* BANKROLL BUILDER). This is a big game for both division foes. It’s the first game of the new month and each will be eager to kick it off with a victory. St. Louis sits 3.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead after a terrible May. The Cards posted a 2-1 win in ten innings last night, but I expect a much more offensive affair on Saturday night. Cards’ starter Jake Flaherty is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in four five appearances vs. the Cubs. Cubs’ starter Jose Quintana has done well vs. the Cards over his career, but he comes in off a terrible start vs. the Reds on Sunday, allowing six runs and a career-high 12 hits over five innings in a loss. Note that Chicago has seen the total go over in nine of 12 as a road dog already this season, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in ten of its last 14 when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. This number is a tad low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Cards. | |||||||
05-31-19 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Royals/Rangers under (10*) A couple of respectable pitchers collide in this one on Friday night and I think they’ll battle each other deep into the latter frames. KC came out on top in yesterday’s 4-2 win and I believe we’ll see a similar lower-scoring “duel” here as well. Texas turns to Ariel Jurado, who is 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, giving up two runs over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Angels in his last start. The visitors hand the ball to the resurgent Danny Duffy, who is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA. Duffy’s three-start win streak came to an end in his last trip to the hill, as he’d give up four runs (only one earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Yanks on Sunday (Duffy is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Rangers as well.) I expect these “studs” to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Rangers. | |||||||
05-30-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 10 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Phillies under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series. Yesterday Philadelphia homered four times in its 11-4 win. I think the finale of this three-game set though sets up as a much more of a “duel.” The home side goes with Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA, but who comes in focused after three straight ugly starts. Note though that Eickhoff has made two career appearances vs. the Cards and has gone 1-1, which includes a 5-0 win on May 8th when he gave up just three hits over eight shutout frames. The Cards are now 7-18 in the month of May. The visitors counter with Dakota Hudson to stop the bleeding, he’s so far 3-3 with a 4.22 ERA. He got crushed by the Phillies on May 7th, but in his last start he went a career-high 6 1/3’s innings in a 6-3 victory over the Braves, giving up five hits and two runs. Note that Hudson comes in on top form, having posted four straight quality starts with a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. These are two hungry starters and I believe they’ll be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
05-29-19 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cubs/Astros under (10* TOTAL OF YEAR). The Astros won their second straight in this series in yesterday’s 9-6 interleague victory. One day earlier Houston had to hold on for the 6-5 win. While the first two games of this series have flown well above the posted number, I think the conditions are now right for more of a “duel” in the finale. The home side hands the ball to Wade Miley, who is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA and who looked sharp in his last outing, allowing one run while posting eight K’s in a win over the Red Sox. Also note that Miley has in fact won four straight and he’s unbeaten at home this year. He’s also 6-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs, which includes going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in 2018 while he was with the Brewers. The visitors try to salvage the finale by turning to Kyle Hendricks, who is 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over six innings with nine K’s in a no-decision to the Reds. While only 3-8 in 18 careers starts vs. the American League in his career, Hendricks does own a respectable 3.41 ERA over that span. I look for these surging veteran starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Astros. | |||||||
05-28-19 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Jays/Rays over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) The Rays won yesterday’s three-game series opener 8-3 and I expect a similar final combined score here as well once it’s all said and done. Tampa Bay slugger Austin Meadows had three RBI’s and a home run yesterday. Toronto won’t be rolling over though here after it lost two of three at home to the Rays in April. In fact the Rays are 16-7 vs. the Jays the last two years, including 8-2 at home over that span. Toronto goes with Clayton Richard, who is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA so far, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek, who is 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA. The book is still out on each of these starters though with such a small sample size so far. I think the stage is set for another high-scoring affair as I expect each of these starters to get the hook early. Note that Toronto has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine after a loss by five runs or more as well. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Rays. | |||||||
05-27-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Marlins/Nationals under (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Max Scherzer got destroyed by the Marlins last week, but overall he’s 12-4 with a 3.28 ERA vs. the Fish. Jose Urena has done extremely well vs. the Nationals throughout his career as well, going 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a complete game thrown in there over 12 career appearances. Note that Miami has seen the total dip under in 13 of 14 “day” games already this year, while Washington has seen the total go under in five of its last six as a home favorite of -200 or higher. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Nationals. | |||||||
05-26-19 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Dodgers/Pirates under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Dodgers have won the first two games of this series by a combined score of 17-4. LA is so far 5-2 on its eight-game road trip. This sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. Pittsburgh won’t be taking anything for granted after losing four of its last five. The Pirates already have 21 players on the IL and yesterday catcher Francisco Cervelli was injured as well by a broken bat. Kenta Maeda is 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA for the Dodgers and the Pirates counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season after allowing three runs or less in two straight games, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 12 after allowing seven or more runs in two straight games. I think the conditions and numbers point to a lower-scoring affair. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Dodgers. | |||||||
05-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Diamondbacks/Giants over (8* BLACK-LABEL) I think runs are going to be plentiful here. Arizona broke out of its slump with a resounding 18-2 win in last night’s series opener and I believe it’s going to carry that momentum over here. The home side sends Andrew Suarez to the hill and he’s so far 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Most recently Suarez allowed three runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. He’s also only 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in three career starts vs. the D-Backs. The visitors counter with rookie Taylor Clarke, who is 0-1 with a 2.00 ERA and who will make his second career start here. In his first start he gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Rays. San Francisco won’t be lacking for motivation after yesterday’s humiliating defeat. I think these starters get chased early. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. | |||||||
05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Cardinals under (10* SUPER TOTAL) These two starting pitchers dominated last year, but each has so far struggled in 2019. They won’t be lacking for motivation here and I believe this determination from each will help in pushing this total under the number once its all said and done. Braves’ starter Mike Foltynewicz is 0-3 with a 6.91 ERA, while Cards’ starter Miles Mikolas is 4-4 with a 4.88 ERA. The Braves come in tired as well after last night’s 5-4, 13 inning victory at San Francisco. Foltynewicz won’t be lacking for focus here though after the Cards crushed him for eight runs over 4 2/3’s innings just last week. In his last start he gave up two runs over six innings vs. the Brewers. Mikolas can empathize, as he gave up seven runs over 1 1/3’s innings to Texas in his last start. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in eight of 12 already this year after two or more consecutive victories, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in four of five already this season after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Cards. | |||||||
05-24-19 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | 4-11 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Twins under (8* MONEY-MAKER) After going 6-1 on a West Coast road trip which saw them hit 22 home runs and outscore its opposition 67-29, I believe Minnesota has a predictable “letdown” here in the opener of this three-game home series vs. the White Sox. The home side hands the ball to Jose Berrios, who is 6-2 with a 3.39 ERA and who is 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA and .183 opponents batting average in nine career starts vs. the White Sox. I think the Twins offense “stalls” after the big road trip, but I expect Berrios to continue his red hot start and his career domination of Chicago. The visitors counter with Reynaldo Lopez, who is 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA. Note though that Lopez is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins and 0-1 with a 1.38 ERA in two starts at Target Field. Chicago has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten as a road dog of +150 or higher, while Minnesota has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 15 as a favorite of -110 or higher. I expect these starters to throw deep. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 3-2 Twins. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nats/Mets under (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A couple of competent hurlers square off in this afternoon National League contest and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium. The Mets have won the first three games of this series, including last night’s 6-1 victory (all six runs engineered in the eighth inning.) While both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, this pick is based primarily on the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, who is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and who so far has been best in all “day” games this year, going 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA. His counterpart Steven Matz, who is 3-3 with a 3.96 ERA, returned from the DL to give up two runs over four innings in a 2-0 loss to Miami last weekend (he owns a 3.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. the Nats.) The stage is set for a “duel.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 3-1 Nationals. | |||||||
05-22-19 | Braves v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Braves/Giants over (10* TOTAL U of U) Max Fried is 6-2 with a 2.86 ERA for the Braves and Jeff Samardzija is 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA for the Giants. These starters have each gotten out to a decent start to the 2019 campaign, but I think each takes a step back here and gets the hook early. San Francisco completed a dramatic bottom of the night come from behind win last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Note that Fried’s career ERA vs. the Giants is 4.50 with no decisions. Samardzija is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA vs. the Braves lifetime. Note though that ATL has seen the total go over in nine of 12 already this year after having lost two of its last three games, while San Francisco has seen the total fly over in five of its last six after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 7-4 Giants. | |||||||
05-22-19 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9 | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: A’s/Indians (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two hungry starters go head to head in this one and I think that runs will be at a premium. The A’s posted a 5-3 win yesterday and I think a similar final combined score will be in order here as well. The home side hands the ball to Jefry Rodriguez, who is 1-3 with a 3.45 ERA and who comes in off his first truly crummy start of the year vs. the Orioles, giving up four runs over seven innings. The A’s god with Frankie Montas, who is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. Montas enters off a gem vs. the Tigers on Friday, striking out a career-high ten and coming within an out of his first career complete effort. Note that Oakland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 already this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Cleveland has seen the total go under in eight of 12 in the same position. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Indians. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nationals/Mets over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) It’s the Nationals’ Erick Fedde (0-0, 3.38 ERA) vs. the Mets Zack Wheeler (3-3, 4.85). New York ended a miserable five-game losing streak with a 5-3 win in last night’s four-game series opener and clearly it’ll be looking to keep the foot on the gas here as well. The Nationals can empathize though as they continue to struggle with game to game consistency as well. It’s interesting to note that the Nats have lost 13 games by two runs or fewer and two more in extra innings. These are two clubs with big expectations but which are both scuffling at the plate. I think that ends tonight. Last Thursday these exact starters faced each other and Wheeler gave up six runs over six innings in Washington’s eventual 7-6 win. All signs point to a similar final combine score in my opinion this time around as well. T.M. Prediction: 7-5 Mets. | |||||||
05-18-19 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rockies/Phillies under (8*) Two “studs” going head to head here. I’m expecting each to work into the latter frames, which I believe will ultimately help in pushing this total under the number once it’s all said and done. The home side hands the ball to Aaron Nola, who is 3-0 with a 4.86 ERA. Over his last 21 1/3’s innings of work Nola has given up just six runs. Also note that in three career starts vs. the Rockies he’s 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. The visitors counter with Antonio Senzatela, who is 3-2 with a 5.35 ERA. Coors Field is difficult on all starting pitchers, but note that Senzatela is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA on the road this season. Note that Colorado has seen the total go under in 31 of 50 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in nine of 13 home games already this year. This number is a tad high in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cards/Braves under (10* TOTAL OF MONTH). Two competent starting pitchers collide in the second game of this three game National League series and in my opinion, everything points to classic “duel” after St. Louis’ 14-3 win in yesterday’s opener. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha (3-0, 5.35 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs over six innings in a win over the Pirates. The home side counters with Mike Soroka (3-1, 1.21) is the first others since 1913 to allow one run or fewer as a starter in eight of his first ten career games. Note as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under in 18 of its last 28 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games, while Atlanta has seen the total go under in 47 of its last 77 at home when the total is either 9 or 9.5. Expect these “studs” to battle into the latter frames and look for this one to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Braves. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 1-11 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Diamondbacks under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Chris Archer is only 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA and he hasn’t pitched since mid April because of injury, but he returns from the DL pumped up here to face the Diamondbacks. These teams have split the first two games of this series. Note that Archer is 1-0 with a 4.70 ERA in 7 2/3’s innings of work vs. Arizona. The D-Backs Zack Greinke enters on top form, having gone 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his past eight starts. Note that Greinke is 9-4 with a 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Pittsburgh. Additionally note that the Pirates have seen the total go under in 55 of its last 95 as a road dog between +125 to +175, while the D-backs have seen the total go under in ten of 16 “day” games already. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 D-Backs. | |||||||
05-14-19 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 9-0 | Push | 0 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indians/White Sox under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Both of these starters have struggled at times this year, but each has also looked very good in others. Each is coming off a crummy outing (Carrasco is 3-3 with a 4.91 ERA, most recently giving up four runs over eight innings in a no-decision vs. the Mariners, while Banuelos. who is 2-2 with a 6.67 ERA gave up nine runs off ten hits over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. Amazingly, all of the damage came in a single frame. Clearly it was a disaster of epic proportions, but note that despite that “brain fart,” Banuelos is 2-1 with a 5.96 ERA and 22 K’s over 22.2 innings of work. Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 21 on the road already, while Chicago has seen the total dip under in four of its last five home games then the total is set at 8.5 or higher. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Indians. | |||||||
05-10-19 | Phillies v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Royals under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) I think this one has “duel” written all over it. The Phillies took the final two games of their series vs. the Cards, outscoring them 16-1 in the process. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Jake Arrieta, who is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The veteran has gone at least six innings in seven of hits last eight starts. KC is only 13-25 overall so far, including just 8-11 at home. KC is struggling at the plate, as in Wednesday’s 9-0 loss at Houston it would strike out 17 times. The home side counters with Homer Bailey, who is 3-3 with a 5.25 ERA. Bailey most recently gave up two runs over six innings in a 15-3 win over the Tigers on Saturday. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Phillies. | |||||||
05-07-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Twins/Jays under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Twins’ Jose Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while the Jays Aaron Sanchez has also gotten out to a great start by going 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. Minnesota won 8-0 in the series opener last night and overall Minnesota has won eight of its last 11. Toronto continues to struggle with consistency at the plate and I think it’ll have a difficult time here facing Berrios as well. Toronto’s lone bright spot on the mound this year continues to be Sanchez and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continues his progress as well. This one has “duel” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 Twins. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Rockies under (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Totals are always high at Coors Field, but this one is is out of whack. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray who is 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA thus far, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 0-2 with an 11.34 ERA. Arizona comes in having won seven of its last ten. Colorado opened the season 3-12, but it returns home off a 4-3 road trip. Anderson looks to return to form for the home side and he’s had decent success vs. the D-backs, going 2-0 with a 5.77 ERA. Ray’s had success in Denver as well, going 1-1 with a respectable 4.15 ERA in five career starts at Coors. Note that Arizona has seen the total go under in seven of nine already this year following two straight victories, while Colorado has seen the total dip under in eight of 13 as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 5-3 D-Backs. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Reds/Cards over (8* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Reds steamrolled the Cardinals 12-1 in yesterday’s series opener and while I’m expecting a more competitive affair this time around, I do think that the final combined score will be similar. The Cards hand the ball to Dakota Hudson, who is 1-1 with a 5.89 ERA and who gave up three runs off five hits with two walks. All three runs given up were solo home runs, so Hudson was clearly “lucky” to earn the victory in that one. The rookie right-hander has now allowed eight home runs over 18.1 innings. The visitors counter with Tyler Mahle (0-2, 3.52) who gave up four runs off seven hits with no walks while striking out nine over six innings in a loss to the Padres on Sunday. Mahle for the most part has been solid, but note that he was just 5-5 with a 5.01 ERA on the road last year. I think these starters get chased early. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 7-6 Cards. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 103 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pirates/Dodgers over (9* TOP TOTAL) Both teams have been scuffling behind struggling offenses. I think that changes tonight. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs over 5 2/3’s innings while throwing a season-high 92 pitches vs. the Brewers on Saturday. The two runs he allowed were both solo home runs, so Ryu was likely a bit “lucky” in that one. I think the veterans early numbers are unsustainable and a correction is about to happen here. The visitors counter with Chris Archer, who is 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA and he returns from a five game suspension after throwing behind a batter. Despite their recent drop off at the plate, the Dodgers still lead the NL in runs scored with 146. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Dodgers. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 7 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) After slow starts, both Diamondbacks’ Zack Greinke and the Pirates’ Jameson Taillon have looked a lot better over their last few starts, but I think they’re going to get the hook early here. The Diamondbacks are looking for a sweep of the Pirates and come in off an impressive 11-4 offensive victory last night. The Pirates though enter desperate after four straight losses. The numbers support our theory as well, as note that Arizona has seen the total eclipse the number in eight of 12 already this year vs. teams with winning records, while Pittsburgh has still seen the total soar over in five of its last six as a home favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Pirates. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: D-Backs/Pirates over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pirates have lost three straight for the first time this year. Arizona won Game 1 by a score of 12-4, before then taking Tuesday’s contest 2-1. I think we’ll see a much higher-scoring contest in the finale though. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly (1-2, 4.37 ERA) who is making his fifth major league start. He’ll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA. Kelly most recently had 109 pitches over just three innings of work vs. the Cubs last Friday, giving up three runs off six hits while walking seven. Lyles has only allowed one earned run over 17 innings of work, but I think his early unreal numbers are unsustainable. In 19 career games vs. the Diamondbacks, including nine starts, note that Lyles is a poor 2-6 with a 7.23 ERA. This one has “slugfest” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 6-4 Pirates. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 0-9 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Phillies/Mets under (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Mets took Game 1 by a score of 5-1 on Monday and I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Zack Wheeler is only 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA for the Mets so far this year, but after starting slowly he’s looked much better of late, most recently giving up three runs over seven frames in a 3-2 loss to these very Phillies last Wednesday. Wheeler has to be feeling confident here as he’s 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 11 starts vs. Philadelphia. The visitors go with Zach Eflin, who is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and who most recently gave up three runs over six innings vs. the Rockies on Thursday. Note though that Eflin is just 2-3 with a 5.25 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mets. Note that the Phillies are just 7 of 39 with runners in scoring position over the last five games, which doesn’t bode well facing the ever improving Wheeler. This one has “duel” written all over it. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 4-3 Mets. | |||||||
04-22-19 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Yanks/Angels under (8* BANKROLL BUILDER). Two starters which have seen better days collide in the opener of this one and while each has struggled mightily to start the season, I think the worm starts to turn today. jA Happ is 0-2 with a 7.23 ERA for the Yanks. Happ comes in off his best effort of the year though, allowing three runs while striking out four over seven innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Despite his poor ERA and WHIP, note that Happ still owns a respectable 17:6 K:BB over 18.2 innings of work. His counterpart Matt Harvey is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA. Harvey most recently allowed four runs while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. Harvey was decent for the Reds last year and the veteran will benefit from facing an injured Yanks team, which also just had to put slugger Aaron Judge on the 10 day DL to add to their list of “walking wounded.” Note that New York has seen the total go under in seven of nine vs. teams with losing records, while LA has seen the total go under in six of seven vs. southpaws. I expect these hungry starters to battle deep. T.M. Prediction: 4-2 A’s. | |||||||
04-18-19 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: White Sox/Tigers over (8* TOTAL SLUG-FEST) The White Sox come to town off a 4-3, ten-inning loss to KC last night, one which featured a benches-clearing brawl. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Chicago. Keep your eyes on White Sox short-stop Tim Anderson, who has a .424 average with four home runs and 12 RBIs. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, who is 0-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Nova has struggled against the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 5.36 ERA in eight career match ups. The Tigers enter desperate to break a five-game losing streak, losing to Pittsburgh in extra innings for a second consecutive night. The home side counters with Tyson Ross (1-2, 3.50) who gave up four runs off five hits with four walks over six innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday (was the second time in three starts that Ross has walked at least four batters.) This one screams “slugfest” in my opinion as I expect each of these “on again, off again” starters to get chased early by these two hungry clubs. T.M. Prediction: 6-5 Tigers. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mets/Phillies over (10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK) Two of the best in the league go head-to-head on the hill tonight, but I still think this total will sneak over this tiny number. The Phillies Aaron Nola is 1-0 with a 6.46 ERA, while the Mets’ Noah Syndergaar is 1-1 with a 4.74 ERA. The Phillies come in off a 3-1 win in Miami, but they’ll be eager to get their bats going after a lacklustre showing in their last series: "I think hitting is one of those things that can be a little bit hit and miss," Phillies manager Gabe Kapler told reporters in Miami. "Sometimes, you have to give credit to the opposition for pitching well. I think that we have the ability to score lots of runs in consecutive games. And I think that's going to happen for us." The Mets come in off consecutive losses in Atlanta and they’ll also be out to get back into the winners circle. With both of these studs not at their “elite best” to open the season, everything points to this total soaring over the number sooner, rather than later. T.M. Prediction: 6-3 Phillies. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |