Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors/NO Pelicans UNDER On Opening Night, the defending champs will welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to the six. Toronto, who are without Kawhi, will now be led by Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam, who just signed a 4-year max contract extension. The away team will have to play this one without their up-incoming star in Zion Williamson who'll be out with a leg injury. I expect Toronto and New Orleans to be more focused on defense as they both look to start the season off in a good way. Look for teams to struggle to get going early in this one as well as it's their first game of the new season. Take the UNDER with ease. T.M. Prediction: 107-99 Raptors | |||||||
06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* MONEY-MAKER). Toronto had its chance to put this series away and after taking the first two games of this series in Golden State, I think there’s zero chance that Kawhi Leonard and company can take all three there. Kevin Durant went down with injury and is out for the rest of the series, but Golden State is still loaded with talent and experience and I believe it’s these two things which will “win the day” in Game 6. Leonard is likely going to win MVP if the Raptors win, but Stephen Curry now has the same opportunity if he can pull off the impossible as well. And while sweeping two games in a row is a tall task, I absolutely expect Curry and company to defend home floor at all costs in Game 6. With the comforting knowledge that they can return to the friendly confines of Jurassic Park, I look for the Raptors to have a letdown here. T.M. Prediction: 109-102 Warriors. | |||||||
06-10-19 | Warriors +4 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 62 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* BLOOD-BATH). I had a play on the “under” in Game 4, but for Game 5 I’m going to concentrate on the side. Possibly again without their best player in Kevin Durant on the floor, I believe the Warriors are still going to find a way to get the job done here and send this one back to Oakland. Serge Ibaka had a big game for the Raptors in Game 4, but it’s hard to imagine the big man duplicating that performance in back-to-back contests. I think this one has outright “upset” written all over it (that said though, grab the points!) T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Warriors. | |||||||
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 216 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Warriors under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Golden State is still without Kevin Durant, but it is set to welcome back shooter Klay Thompson, who sat out Game 3 with injury. Toronto got out to a blistering start in Game 3 and Golden State was never able to catch up or hold it back. The Warriors took control of Game 2 in the second half of that contest behind a spectacular defensive performance and in my opinion, Golden State is going to be out to duplicate the performance here as it looks to avoid dropping into a 1-3 hole. Toronto looked great on both ends of the court in Game 3 and while it was unable to slow down Stephen Curry, the Raptors would do more than enough to slow down the rest of the role players. I think the Warriors body up from start to finish and I expect the visitors to follow suit. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 107-102 Golden State. | |||||||
06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -106 | 62 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State (10* GAME OF WEEK) Golden State looked dominant in the second half of Game 2, especially on the defensive end and with this series now shifting to the West Coast, I’m expecting the veteran laden defending champions to keep the foot on the gas in front of the home town crowd. The biggest difference though between Game’s 1 and 2? Golden State’s role players stepped up big in Game 2 and outplayed their counterparts. It’s not going to get any easier for Toronto’s bench either in this hostile environment. The pressure is now definitely on the Raptors, who I believe are now in over their heads an in unchartered territory. Additionally note that Toronto is only 3-11 ATS in its last 14 at Golden State, while the Warriors are a sharp 7-2 ATS in their last nine when playing on two or more days rest. T.M. Prediction: 108-99 Warriors. | |||||||
06-02-19 | Warriors +2 v. Raptors | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 59 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* GAME OF MONTH) If you’re watching this game, then the story lines are well known for each team. The Warriors are trying to three-peat and they’re playing without Kevin Durant. The Raptors have been on a role all season long and have been riding the fantastic play of Kawhi Leonard. With or without Durant though, I think the Warriors are going to find a way to win Game 2 outright. The playoffs, much like handicapping, is all about making adjustments and the Warriors are filled with so much talent and experience, that I look for them to do just that. I expect Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry to once again have big games, but I also expect the Warriors bench and role players to finally “show up.” Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Golden State. | |||||||
05-30-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Raptors | 109-118 | Loss | -113 | 85 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Warriors (8*) For all the same reasons that I like the Warriors in the FIRST HALF, I also like them for the entire game. Clearly the outright win isn’t out of the question, but I’ll grab the points. Note as well that Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road dog and 7-3 ATS in its last then when playing with three or more days rest, while the Raptors are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine in the same position. Also note that the favorite is 0-4 ATS the last four in this series. Toronto may have taken both regular season meetings, but now that “the real thing,” is here, expect the champs to deliver. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 85 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Raptors over (10*) I played primarily on the Raptors in the ECF, but in Game 1 of the Finals, I’m going with the defending champs. With so much time off between series, I believe each team comes out refreshed and pushes the pace from start to finish. The Warriors will be out to set the tempo and I expect the champs to be relentless in trying to do that. This one has the feel of a “shootout” rather than a defensive “chess match.” Note as well that Golden State has seen the total go over in ten of 15 already this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Toronto has seen the total sail over the number in three of four already this season when playing with three or more days rest. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -133 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 37 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-LINE MONEY-MAKER) Momentum is a very real, almost “tangible” factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. After looking like a deer caught in the headlights in Games 1 and 2, it’s been all Toronto ever since. The defensive adjustments that the Raptors made have paid huge dividends and with a chance to end this series here and now, I think Kawhi Leonard is going to once again play the role of Super Man here and dominate from start to finish. The Raptors have a distinct home court advantage and I look for them to utilize that here. The Bucks are in unchartered territory and I believe their lack of experience will ultimately be their undoing in this series. I like the home side to find a way to punch its ticket to the NBA Final. T.M. Prediction: 113-100 Toronto. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors +7 v. Bucks | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (8*) Kawhi Leonard got the Raptors to the ECF’s for the first time in franchise history and if he’s going to take them to the Finals, he’s going to have to figure out a way to win on the road in Milwaukee. So far “home floor” has meant everything in this series, but I think that trend is about to end tonight. The difference between Game’s 1 and 2 and Game 5? The Raptors’ bench. Toronto’s bench players were a “no show” in Milwaukee in the first two games, but the entire unit came back to life in Toronto and I think they’re going to now carry that momentum/confidence over here. Toronto big man Marc Gasol has also looked a lot better and that’s opened things up for Leonard to operate offensively, as well as dominate Bucks’ star Giannis defensively. I’m not buying into the “home floor” advantage this time around. Look for Leonard to continue to redefine Raptors basketball with a signature road victory. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10*) Kawhi Leonard is a new face to the Raptors, but he comes in with a ton of experience in the playoffs. Overall the Raptors have the advantage in the “experience” department. After getting “shell shocked” over the first two games of this series, Toronto returned to form on its own floor in Game’s 3 and 4 and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Leonard has been an absolute beast on both ends of the floor, but especially defensively vs. Bucks’ star Giannis. Toronto’s role players are back playing with a ton of confidence, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Milwaukee has been tough defensively as well in this series. This one has the feel of an all out war, where every possession is contested. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 216 | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Raptors under (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Game 2 of course would have gone well under the number if not for the Raptors double OT victory. Toronto looked a lot better defensively, especially Kawhi Leonard in slowing down Bucks’ super star Giannis Antetokounmpo (12 points on 5 of 16 shooting, committing eight turnovers.) Toronto is going to employ an identical defensive game plan here as well obviously, except this time each side comes in extra tired after the marathon game last time out. It sets up perfectly as more of a defensive affair in my opinion. Both teams have excelled defensively so far in the playoffs and I believe that will again be the case here. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-105 Milwaukee. | |||||||
05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +155 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Trail Blazers MONEY LINE (10* GAME OF WEEK) I thought Golden State was going to win this series, but I didn’t foresee a “sweep.” Especially with KD sidelined with injury. I believe Portland offers great value here though to salvage a little respect and to earn a Game 3 victory outright. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the Warriors, clearly they’ve “found their groove” riding the red hot shooting of Klay Thompson and captain Stephen Curry. I simply feel that Golden State has a letdown here with the knowledge that KD can now return and that they also have a Game 5 to wrap up this series in front of the home town crowd. I don’t think Damian Lillard and proud home side go down without a fight tonight. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that GS is just 4-12 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less this season, while Portland is still 5-1 ATS this season as a home underdog. Play on Portland money line. T.M. Prediction: 115-105 Blazers. | |||||||
05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER). Toronto has looked decent in the first half of both games so far in the ECF’s, but the second half it’s been non-existent. The Raptors are better at home than on the road though, as they enjoy one of the league’s “best” home court advantages. It’s difficult to play North of the border and I believe the surging Bucks finally have a letdown here. Milwaukee has been playing at an extremely high level with only one loss so far in the playoffs, but it’s about to have its hands full in this difficult venue in my opinion. The Raptors are fantastic defensively on their own floor and I believe that trend carries over here. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that the Bucks are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Toronto is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Raptors. | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 221.5 | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Blazers under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Game 2 went “over” in the Warriors 114-111 victory. Portland controlled the game over the first half, but Golden State’s prowess from behind the arc once again proved to be too much for Portland to handle down the stretch. Remember, they’re doing all of this without Kevin Durant, possibly the best player on the planet. The Warriors were wildly inconsistent over the second half of the regular season this year (for their lofty standards anyways) and they looked very susceptible vs. the Clippers in their six game opening round series victory. Golden State’s achilles heel has been its play on the road though and clearly the Blazers will be doubling down on the defensive end as they try desperate to back into this series. The shift in venue points to more of a defensive affair finally in my opinion, as I expect the home side to press from the opening tip, until the final horn. This number is a tad high. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Blazers. | |||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors +7 v. Bucks | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (10* MONEY-MAKER) Toronto controlled Game 1 up until about mid-way through the fourth quarter. That’s when the Bucks were finally able to get over the hump, pulling away for a very tight cover in the closing moments. But I’m expecting the Raptors to come back even harder here. There’s no reason at all not to expect another battle here, as these two evenly matched sides aren’t going to give an inch. Note that Toronto is already 2-0 ATS this year when trailing in a playoff series and 20-12 ATS in its last 22 after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS, while Milwaukee is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after five or more consecutive victories. While I do believe the outright is a possibility, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Toronto. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Raptors. | |||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Portland (10* MONEY-MAKER) Analysis posted at least 8 hours before game time. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Golden State. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 218 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 62 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/Bucks under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Toronto lost three of four to Milwaukee in the regular season, but I think Kawhi Leonard and company will at the very least take Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals right down to the wire. These teams are similar in many respects, in that they have a clear top tier dominant player (Leonard for the Raptors and Giaanis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks), as well as a strong cast of starting role players, combined with a deep and talented bench. Toronto’s late acquisition of big man Marc Gasol could swing this series in favor of Toronto though as he and Serge Ibaka proved to be too much for 76ers’ big man Joel Embiid to handle. And I think the combination of the two will prove difficult for Milwaukee as well. The Bucks have yet to be tested in any real way so far in the Playoffs, but I believe that changes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This one just screams “defensive battle” in my opinion. Note as well though that Toronto has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 when playing with two days rest, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in all five games that it’s played in tho shear with three or more days of rest. This number is a tad high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 Bucks. | |||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Portland Trail Blazers (10* GAME OF WEEK) Golden State got by the Rockets in Game 6 without the services of All Star Kevin Durant, but I think the defending champs will struggle in Game 1 of the WCF. These teams split four regular season meetings and in my opinion, everything points to another competitive affair here. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are going to be a matchup issue for the undermanned Warriors, and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think the conditions are definitely right for a war until the end. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland is 50-32 ATS in its last 82 vs. teams which allow 106 plus points or more, while Golden State is just 18-27 ATS as a home favorite this year. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. | |||||||
05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 55 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Raptors under (8* TOTAL BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) This has been another wild and unpredictable series. When these teams play at their best defensively, they have usually come out on top so far in the playoffs though and with so much on the line, I think that Game 7 sets up beautifully as a tightly contested, lower-scoring defensive battle. These have been two of the best defensive clubs during the postseason and I believe they continue that trend here. And the numbers/trends do indeed support that theory, as note that Philly has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 when playing with two days rest, while Toronto has seen the total dip below in ten of its last 15 in the same position. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 106-100 Toronto. | |||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* SUPER TOTAL) This has been a back and forth series and in Game 7 I believe that we’ll witness a very defensive affair. Fatigue comes into play here in Game 7 of this second round contest. Also note that the thin air of Denver can’t help these “gassed” players either. Denver has been at its best at home, but I’m expecting a battle until the final horn. In my opinion, this one sets up as a very tight, closely guarded defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring run and gun “shootout.” And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Portland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 22 following a home win vs. a division rival, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten this year when playing with two days rest. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Nuggets. | |||||||
05-10-19 | Warriors +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Golden State Warriors (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Rockets in their tight Game 5 loss, but for Game 6 I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs, despite playing without the services of Kevin Durant, to battle tight and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. If ever there was a time for Klay Thompson to step up and show the basketball World that he’s worth a max contract, now is the time. With Durant available for the next round, the Warriors don’t need to panic at this point. If Golden State gets a decent game out of Curry and a good one from Thompson, they have a legitimate shot at taking this game outright. So far home court advantage has meant everything in this series, but the veteran leadership which the Warriors bring to the table in this instance is the difference maker in my opinion. Note as well that Golden State is 17-11 ATS in its last 28 when trying to close out a playoff series, while Houston is 0-2 ATS in its last two when facing elimination in a playoff series. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-106 Rockets. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL EXPRESS) Coaching in the Playoffs, especially in the second round and beyond is all about “making adjustments.” Denver’s been great in that so far after taking out the Spurs in seven games and now seemingly getting a “firm read” on the Blazers and managing to slow down their star Damian Lillard. Clearly it’s up to the Blazers to respond, but these have historically been spots in which Lillard has faded in, not being able to step up and carry the load. And who else on Portland will step up to carry the load if Lillard can’t? I think this one sets up as a defensive affair, with Denver doing everything it can to control the tempo from the outset. Additionally note that the Nuggets have seen the total go under in three of four already this year off a win by ten points or more over a division rival, while Portland has seen the total dip under in three of four this year in trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more vs. an opponent. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-102 Blazers. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers under (9* TOTAL EXPRESS) Philadelphia is playing for its life here. After taking Game 1, Philadelphia has struggled with consistency and it now finds itself in a 3-2 hole. Toronto would clearly love nothing more than to end it here and now after taking Game 5 125-89. Where is Philadelphia’s scoring going to suddenly come from? Big man Joel Embiid is struggling with injury and sickness and for the most part Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons have been completely ineffective. The last thing Toronto wants to do is to turn this into a track meet, instead I predict the visitors to come out and to blanket the 76ers once again from start to finish. Over the last ten years Toronto has had difficulty closing out series like this, but with Kawhi Leonard, perhaps that’s going to change this season. Regardless, from a situational stand point I think this one definitely sets up as a defensive affair, but also note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of ten so far in the playoffs anyways. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Raptors. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets +6 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Houston Rockets (10*) So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series. But other than Kevin Durant, the Warriors have looked very “off” over the last two games and I think that Houston has a legitimate shot at stealing Game 5 outright. The Clippers won two games at Oracle Arena remember in the opening series. The Rockets made the necessary defensive adjustments and both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are struggling with consistency right now. James Harden and company though have definitely improved dramatically on both ends of the court and I see no reason that that momentum won’t be carried over here. Consider as well that Houston is 4-0 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Golden State is only 9-18 ATS this year as a home favorite in the same points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-109 Warriors. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Celtics +9.5 v. Bucks | 91-116 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (8*) I played on the Bucks and the under in Game 4, but in Game 5 I’m back on the hungry underdog Celtics. Milwaukee has played with better chemistry all season and it’s bench has severely outplayed Boston’s so far. The Celtics have gotten an atrocious shooting performance from guard Kyrie Irving over the last three games, but I have a very hard time seeing the All Star being held down for a fourth straight contest. The Celtics are loaded with talent and experience and I simply can’t see them going down without a fight here. The Bucks are in unchartered territory and it’s yet to be seen if they can step up in a situation like this and deliver a decisive knock out blow. I think the stage is now set for a very competitive battle. Note as well that Boston is 4-1 ATS this year still as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while the Bucks are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 after two or more straight road victories. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Bucks. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 218 | 91-116 | Win | 102 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Bucks under (8*) I had a play on the Bucks and the under in Game 4, and while I’m going against Milwaukee in this one, I do believe we’re going to see another tight, lower-scoring defensive battle in Game 5. This is a trap game for the Bucks after two straight wins on the road and with a 3-1 series lead. It remains to be seen if this team is going to be able to close out in this situation and I certainly don’t expect the Celtics to go down without a fight. This one has “war” written all over it as I expect everything to be contended, from the opening tip until the final horn. The numbers support our theory as well, as note that Boston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 18 after playing two straight at home, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 22 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. This number is high in my opinion. T.M. Prediction: 105-103 Bucks. | |||||||
05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 98-124 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) This has been a back and forth series. The Nuggets lost in quadruple OT in Game 3, only to then bounce back and steal another high-scoring affair in Game 4 to even the series. After back-to-back “marathons,” I believe a much more defensive affair in Game 5. Especially with the shift in venue to the thin Denver air. This one sets up beautifully as a lower-scoring under from a situational angle, but also note that Portland has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 as a road underdog of six points or less, while Denver has seen the total go under in four of five this year off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 105-100 Denver. | |||||||
05-07-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This has been a very competitive series and I expect nothing different in Game 5. Toronto earned the 101-96 win last time out behind 39 points from Kawhi Leonard. In Game 3 Philadelphia star Joel Embiid had 30 points, ten boards and five blocks in the 76ers 116-95 victory. Leonard has been incredible so far, but one has to wonder how much gas he has left in the tank? The rest of the Raptors have been poor and it’s the opening that Philadelphia needs to once again take control of this series. Philadelphia’s role players have also struggled at times, but I still think that Philadelphia features the deeper and more skilled scoring talent. Additionally note that Philadelphia already 4-1 ATS this year off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Toronto is only 20-22 ATS this season after a game where it covered the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10*) Houston is back in this series after its OT win in Game 3. Clearly the last thing Houston can do is take the foot off the gas in Game 3. I’m expecting a very similar style of contest in Game 4 (note I had the over in Game 3). With the home side pushing the pace from the opening tip until the final horn, the Warriors will be forced to match pace with that style of game play. It sets up great as a high-scoring shootout from a situational stand point. Look for these two offensive clubs to play to another “barn burner” in Game 4 and play the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-115 Rockets. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 221 | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics under (8*) After dropping Game 1, it’s been all Milwaukee in this series, but with their backs against the wall, I believe we can expect the home side to double down on the defensive side tonight. This one has more the feel of a slower paced “chess match” than a run-and-gun “shootout.” Boston has also seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Bucks. | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks +1.5 v. Celtics | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Bucks (8*) Milwaukee came out flat in Game 1, but since then it’s made the necessary adjustments and now it’s the Celtics who are on the ropes. Boston is having difficulty with offensive consistency and think the Bucks can smell the blood in the water. With a chance to take a strangle hold on this series before heading back home for Game 5, I think the visitors lay everything on the line here. Note as we’ll that Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS this year as a road underdog of six points or less, while Boston is 8-11 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 Bucks. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 210 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (10*) This doesn’t have to be an extremely high-scoring game (like Portland’s four OT Game 3 victory), to go “over” this very low number. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting. While most likely are thinking that these two teams will come in “gassed” after the Game 3 “marathon,” I believe these offenses are finally just “warming up!” Both teams are in unchartered territory and with the Warriors looking more susceptible right now than at any other time over the last five years, the Western Conference is up for grabs at this point. These are two young/hungry teams and I think fatigue is an over-rated factor here. And the numbers support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss vs. an opponent of three points or less, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten already this season off a no-cover where it still won SU as the favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Blazers. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8*) I got down early on this one, before the Raptors got the news about the Pascal Sikiam injury, but regardless, I think Philadelphia will look to deliver the (near) knock out blow here. Despite losing Game 1, the 76ers have been dominant defensively in this series, holding the Raptors to just 98 PPG. Toronto was the sixth highest scoring team in the league in the regular season, but it’s had difficulties with consistency on the offensive end of the floor since the playoffs started. Philadelphia is healthy, its firing on all cylinders on both ends and it has the home floor advantage. Perhaps Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the floor, but Toronto’s lack of talent is clear in this series. I’m banking on a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 119-113 Philadelphia | |||||||
05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers OVER 214.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Raptors/76ers over (8*) Toronto is suddenly on the ropes. I have a play on the 76ers as well in this three-game report, but clearly the Raptors are going to have to push the pace here as they try to snap out of their offensive doldrums. The 76ers would love nothing more than to push the pace though and with the home side indeed looking to deliver the second to last nail in the coffin, I definitely think that Game 4 sets up great as a high-scoring “shootout.” Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-113 Philadelphia. | |||||||
05-04-19 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 83 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF MONTH) Even the most casual NBA fan knows the story lines and the strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, so breaking down individual player match ups is pretty much pointless in my opinion. Golden State dominated the first two games of this series at home, but with the shift to Houston, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair here. Clearly the Rockets are going to be looking to push the pace from start to finish as they try to turn the momentum around in this series. Golden State was surprisingly good defensively vs. Houston at home, but I believe it’ll struggle to duplicate that effort on the road. The numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in 20 of 31 when leading in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total go over in six of eight when playing with double revenge this year. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Warriors. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | 137-140 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers over (8* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The series shifts to Portland after each team split out in Denver. The Nuggets looked great in Game 1 and poor in Game 2. The Blazers looked poor in Game 1 and great in Game 2. The playoffs is all about making adjustments. That’s the same when it comes to wagering on the playoffs as well. While each team has looked inconsistent at times already in this series, I’m expecting a much more efficient and faster paced Game 3. And the numbers/trends support that theory, as note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of its last seven revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, while Portland has seen the total go over in 22 of 38 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Nuggets. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Bucks/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) The Celtics blew out the Bucks behind a great defensive performance in Game 1, before Milwaukee returned the favor in Game 2. While the Game 2 total did sneak over the number, This series so far hasn’t seen any big time offensive fireworks, but I believe that’s about to change here. Milwaukee will obviously be looking to push the pace again here after its 123-102 Game 2 victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 29 points, 10 rebounds and four assists. Milwaukee had 20 3-pointers in Game 2 and I’m expecting a duplicate game-plan in Game 3 from the visiting side. Kyrie Irving looked great in Game 1 for Boston and poor in Game 2. With the shift in venue, we can expect the C’s best player to return to form here as well. This one has “shootout” written all over it, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 119-118 Milwaukee. | |||||||
05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (10* GAME OF MONTH) After getting blown out in Game 1 the under 76ers earned the split with a dominant performance in Game 2 and I believe they’ll carry that confidence and momentum over into another small upset in Game 3 in friendly confines. Toronto shot only 36.3 percent from the floor and 27 percent from range in Monday’s loss. Philadelphia is deep and it earned the Game 2 win despite big man Joel Embiid pretty much being ineffective. With the shift in venue, I think Embiid has his biggest performance yet. Note that Toronto is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite of six points or less and just 7-8 ATS when playing with two days rest, while Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS this year off a road win vs. a division rival. T.M. Prediction: 108-106 76ers. | |||||||
05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) Denver won 121-113. I’m expecting another higher-scoring affair in Game 2 as well as the Blazers will look to get out and push the pace from start to finish. Denver looked great though after its seven games opening round victory over the Spurs in Game 1 and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that it won’t carry that momentum over here. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver in Game 1 with 37 points. Portland got 34 points from Damian Lillard and it’ll need a similar effort here if it hopes to earn a coveted split. Portland has seen the total go over in seven of ten off a loss vs. a division rival this year, while Denver has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight home games. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 120-117 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-30-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 218 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 37 h 0 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I had a play on the over in Game 1 and while that contest failed to eclipse the posted number, I think that the situation and the trends definitely now point to a higher-scoring shootout in Game 2. Houston was playing from behind all night in Game 1 and if it doesn’t want to return home in an 0-2 hole, clearly it’s going to have to make some major adjustments. Golden State surprised me defensively, but I think the Warriors will have their hands full this time with a Rockets team which I definitely expect to push the pace from start to finish. And the numbers/trends support our theory, as note that Houston has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go over in 19 of its last 29 when leading in a playoff series. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 118-112 Warriors. | |||||||
04-30-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and I think it has a legitimate shot at pulling off the outright upset in Game 2 as well. If you didn’t get a chance to read my Game 1 analysis, do so now as the logic behind that play for the most part also directly applies to this one: I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-113 Boston. | |||||||
04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Blazers/Nuggets under (10*) This is an interesting series, as two teams which are accustomed to either missing the playoffs entirely, or which inevitably go out early in the second round, now go head-to-head in Mile High in the second round. The Blazers haven’t played since Tuesday though and I think that rest is going to lead to rust after their five-game series win over the Thunder. Both teams have been exceptional defensively to this point and I expect those trends to carry over here. Portland comes in averaging 111 PPG and allowing 105.2 in the playoffs, while Denver is averaging 105.1 points and allowing 103.1. The under is 7-3-1 in the Blazers last ten road games and all signs point to that being added to right here. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 106-103 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-29-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia 76ers (8* 76ers) The 76ers got in an early hole in Game 1 and were never able to recover, but I think the visitors will at the very least take this one right down to the wire. The 76ers averaged 122 points in their series win over the Nets, while allowing 110.8. Toronto has been getting the job done defensively so far in the playoffs, allowing only 92.5 PPG. Overall though the Raptors are averaging just 106.7 PPG. The playoffs are all about making adjustments. This has been a matchup problem for Philadelphia, but I think the 76ers’ depth keeps this one competitive late. Note as well that Philly is 8-1 ATS this year off a loss vs. a division rival, while the Raptors are only 21-23 as a home favorite this season. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. | |||||||
04-29-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Raptors under (8*) The Raptors took Game 1, but I think they’ll have a much more difficult time in Game 2. Philadelphia will obviously be risking life and limb as it tries to earn the coveted split. So far Philadelphia is averaging 117.2 PPG, while allowing 110.8. Toronto is averaging only 106.7 PPG, while conceding just 92.5. The 76ers managed only 95 points in Game 1. Note as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 27 this year off a loss vs. a division rival. Toronto has seen the total go under in four of five after three straight wins by ten points or more. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 106-105 Raptors. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Warriors over (10* TOTAL TRADE MARK) Golden State struggled with offensive consistency vs. the Clippers at times in the first round, but I think it’ll have the foot on the gas in Game 1 vs. the Rockets. And for Houston it’s an opportunity to finish some unfinished business. The Rockets had a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Warriors last year, but an injury to guard Chris Paul in Game 5 saw the Rockets then go on to lose three straight. The Rockets scored only 89 points per game over those last two games, so clearly they’ll be out to send a message as well. The stage is now set for an epic battle and I expect that to translate into a high-scoring blowout. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 127-120 Warriors. | |||||||
04-28-19 | Celtics +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 121 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* TRADE-MARK) I think Game 1 is going to be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. The Celtics averaged 99.3 PPG in their series win over the Pacers, while allowing only 91.8. Kyrie Irving led the Celtics with 22.5 points, 4.5 boards and 7.8 assists per game. Milwaukee averaged 121.8 PPG in its series win over the Pistons, while allowing 98. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for the Bucks with 26.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Note though that Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road, while Milwaukee is a poor 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 when playing on three or more days of rest. I think the Celtics’ depth and experience will keep this series and especially Game 1 competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Bucks. | |||||||
04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 209.5 | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets under (10* BLACK-LABEL) I had a play on the “over” in Game 6, but I believe that Game 7 sets up as a defensive affair. These are in fact two of the better defensive clubs in the Western Conference and with so much on the line, I’m expecting each to double down on that end of the court. This has been a back and forth series, with each side looking great at times and very poor in others. The numbers/trends however support our theory though, as note that SA has seen the total dip under in eight of 12 this year after a blowout win by 15 points or more, while Denver has seen the total go under in 12 of 20 this season in trying got revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 100-95 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toronto Raptors (8* MONEY-MAKER) Both teams did well in the first round. Each lost their respective first games, but then recover to sweep the next four. The 76ers averaged 122.4 points and allowed 111.4 vs. the Nets and they are led by Joel Embiid with 24.8 points and 13.5 boards per game. Embiid is going to have his hands full with veteran Raptors big men Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Toronto has to be feeling confident here as well as it took three of four in the regular season series. Toronto averaged 106.4 PPG in the win over the Nets, while allowing only 92. Additionally note that Philadelphia is just 19-24 ATS on the road this year and only 8-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more, while Toronto is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after a covers as a double digit favorite. This is a bad matchup for Embiid and company. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 117-107 Raptors. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 234.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Warriors/Clippers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I was expecting a more competitive, lower-scoring battle in Game 5. That didn’t hold true though, as LA jumped out to an early big lead and then didn’t let up, keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Clippers needed a similar effort in their upset win in Game 2 as well. Game 3 at home saw them come out an “lay an egg” though. Offensive consistency from game-to-game has plagued the Clippers at times in this series. I think the Warriors double down defensively here as they look to end it tonight. Note that Golden State has seen the total go under in 15 of 22 this year after allowing 120 points or more, while LA has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten off an upset win as a road dog. This number is high. T.M. Prediction: 119-110 Warriors. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Spurs over (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) It’s a BIG game between the Nuggets and the Spurs in Game 6 in San Antonio. Both teams have looked great in this series and each has looked poor as well. With their backs against the wall though, I think the Spurs offer great value to extend this series to a decisive Game 7. The Spurs have been better at home all year than on the road and that matters here. So does the veteran leadership that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich brings to the table. Denver has exceeded expectations this season, but it definitely struggled with consistency down the stretch. If you’ve seen my “Free Play” on this game, then you know I like the Spurs. San Antonio can’t let Denver dictate the pace of this one obviously and expect to win. With the home side pushing the pace from start to finish, I believe this total will indeed fly over sooner, rather than later. Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over the number in six of seven this year after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 13 this year after a road loss by ten or more points. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-114 Spurs. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -107 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors under (10* TRADE-MARK) LA came from behind to knock off the Warriors in Game 2, but other than that it’s been all Golden State in this series. The Clippers can obviously ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the sharp-shooting Warriors, instead the visitors are going to have to try and muscle their way to another victory here. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring “shootout.” A great situational play, but also note that the Clippers have seen the total go under in 19 of 30 as a road underdog tho shear, while GS has seen the total go under in eight of its last 11 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Warriors. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 213 | 93-100 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 4 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Jazz/Rockets over (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Utah looked down and out, but it somehow managed to post a convincing win at home in Game 4 to prolong this series one more game. The Jazz have a sliver of hope now, but they’ll have to keep the foot on the gas, as the last thing the Rockets can do is let another one slip away and then head back to Utah for a dangerous Game 6. Houston will need to push the pace from the outset and with the visiting needing to match pace, I expect Game 5 to finally be a wide open shootout. And the trends support that hypothesis, as note that the Jazz have seen the total go over the number in three of its last four when facing elimination in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total sail over in seven of its last eight in revering a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 118-110 Rockets. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 212 | Top | 90-108 | Loss | -103 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) So far this has been a very evenly matched series as we come into Game 5 all tied at 2-2. The Spurs have averaged 106.8 points and they’ve allowed 108.8 overall this year, while Denver is averaging 108.8 PPG, while allowing 106.8. These are two tough defensive-minded clubs, but I think Game 5 will break the mould and we’ll see a higher-scoring shootout. The Spurs will be out to push the pace after allowing a double-digit lead go to waste last time out. A pivotal/crucial game obviously and one which I expect to be dominated by each team’s underachieving offenses. A great situational play on the over. T.M. Prediction: 117-112 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Nets +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 100-122 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* GAME OF WEEK) I had a play on the Nets in Game 4 and I lost that play, the only NBA play of the four that I released on the weekend that lost. After winning Game 1 the Nets have faltered as the 76ers have taken three straight. However, with its back against the wall, I like Brooklyn to step up here and get the job done. I also don’t think that the outright win is out of the question. Consistency from game to game has plagued the 76ers all year and while they’ve seemingly gotten it together over the last week, I’m not fully convinced quite yet until I do indeed see them finish the deal. The Nets have admittedly disappointed over the last couple of games, but we don’t have to question their drive in this one. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to deliver the goods. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-115 Nets. | |||||||
04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz over (10* TOTAL OF WEEK) Houston has a 3-0 lead. Utah’s playoff run is likely over, as 3-0 hole is going to be just too big to overcoming. The Rockets won Game 1 by a score of 122-90, Game 2 by a score of 118-98 and Game 3 by a score of 104-101. The Rockets have been exceptional defensively so far, meaning that the Jazz’s only chance in this one is to try and break the mould and push the pace. Utah has so far been shutdown offensively, but the numbers support us today in that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in eight of ten this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. I’m finally expecting a competitive, higher-scoring contest in Game 4. Play the over. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Houston. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* MONEY-MAKER) I think the Clippers keep this crucial Game 4 competitive. The outright win isn’t out of the question, but I’ll recommend grabbing the points. After rolling to a 132-105 win in Game 3, I think the Warriors come out flat here. The Clippers know they can’t go back to Golden State down 3-1 and expect to win this series, so with the home side laying everything on the line, I do indeed expect a “nail biter” until the end. The Clippers have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Golden State and they won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. Additionally note that Golden State is still a horrible 16-20 ATS as a road favorite this season, while LA is a solid 16-8 ATS in its last 24 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-117 Warriors. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Celtics v. Pacers OVER 203.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Celtics/Pacers over (10* TRADE-MARK) Not surprisingly, this has been a low-scoring defensive series. I think the narrative changes here though as I look for the home side to push the pace here from the outset as it looks to stave off elimination. The Celtics have a 3-0 lead after their 104-96 Game 3 win, but clearly they’ll have their hands full here vs. this desperate home side. Note that Boston has had to rally in the second half in all three games to earn the victory. I think Indiana once again pushes the pace, but this time for a full four quarters. A faster paced game will lead to more shots and more shots will lead to more points. Additionally note that Boston has seen the total go over in 11 of 15 this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while Indiana has seen the total soar over in four of its last six as a home underdog. This number is low. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Boston. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 59 h 5 m | Show |
.M. Selection: Rockets/Jazz under (10* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Jazz have their backs against the wall. The Rockets have a 2-0 lead and if Utah has any hopes whatsoever of getting back into this series, it’s going to have to lean on its strengths. What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of the Jazz? For me its hard nosed defense. Clearly the Jazz can’t turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hang with James Harden and company. Instead Utah is going to be playing a half to full court defense from start to finish. It’ll also be out to control the tempo while on offense. Additionally note that Houston’s already seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as a road underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip under in nine of its last 14 after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. The situation and numbers both point to the under as the correct call. T.M. Prediction: 107-103 Jazz. | |||||||
04-20-19 | 76ers v. Nets +3 | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 14 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Nets came out and took Game 1 quite easily, but since then it’s been all Philadelphia, coming off back-to-back blowout victories, including Game 3 in Brooklyn. It’s now time for the Nets to respond in this crucial situation, as 3-1 hole heading back to Philadelphia is clearly not ideal. Brooklyn does have the depth to hang with the 76ers, but the Nets have struggled with consistency at times over the last two games. But I think that changes in Game 4, and the numbers support that, as note that Philadelphia is just 4-10 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less this year and only 1-6 ATS off a road win by ten points or more, while Brooklyn is 15-7 ATS this season revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-115 Nets. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic +4.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (10* SHOCKER OF THE YEAR) Orlando dominated the second half of the regular season and it came out and accomplished exactly what it wanted to in Toronto to open this series, earning a “split” by handily taking Game 1. The Raptors bounced back in Game 2, but I smell another slight upset in Game 3 as I look for the home side to ride the wave of emotion. Of course the Magic would have loved to have taken both games from the Raptors, but that’s not realistic. A split was the goal and with that goal having already been accomplished after the first game, the Magic took the foot off the gas in Game 2. It’ll be full speed ahead though in Game 3. These teams are evenly matched, but I think the home floor advantage is significant here. Note as well that Toronto is a terrible 11-14 ATS this season as a road favorite, while Orlando is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Magic. | |||||||
04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +9 | 132-105 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (9* BANKROLL BUILDER). With DeMarcus Cousins sidelined with injury for the rest of the year and coming off one of the biggest upset losses in NBA playoff history, I think the Warriors are more susceptible than ever right now. Clearly the Clippers have the firepower and heart to hand with Golden State, so the big question is, will LA have a predictable letdown here after that epic win? In my opinion, the answer is no. It was a big victory, but in the end the series is only tied 1-1. Now the Clippers can smell the blood in the water with the injury to Cousins. Outright win? Possible. But in a contest which i see coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-114 Warriors. | |||||||
04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: 76ers/Nets under (10* TOTAL BEST OF BEST) Game 1 went under. Game 2 went way over in the 76ers blowout victory. In Game 3 I’m anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring battle. Brooklyn will have to get back to basics here if it has any shot at pulling off another upset. The Nets looked stout in their 103-92 Game 1 victory, but they fell apart in the second half of Game 2, ultimately falling 145-123. I think both teams come in “gassed” here. Note as well that Philly has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 when playing with two days rest and in 14 of 22 this season after a victory by ten points or more, while Brooklyn has seen the total dip under in ten of 16 this year when playing with two days rest. All signs point to a more methodical pace. Play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-107 76ers. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 211 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Pistons/Bucks over (9* TOTAL BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pistons got blown out by 35 points in Game 1 and they’ll be without star player Blake Griffin for the rest of the playoffs. The future doesn’t look bright over the short-term if you’re a Detroit fan obviously, but if the visitors have any shot whatsoever at avoiding an 0-2 hole, they’re going to have to get out and match pace with the home side, which can clearly smell the blood in the water. What better way to completely demoralize a team before it heads back home for its portion of a playoff series? Completely destroy it. I expect no mercy from the home side here as it keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. This one has “shootout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 130-115 Bucks. | |||||||
04-17-19 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Celtics over (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) Two defensive minded clubs collide on Wednesday night. Boston took Game 1 by a score of 84-74, but I’m anticipating a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Indiana can’t rely on its strength and sit back and hope to grind this series out. The Celtics are equally as capable at playing that style of game, yet they’re better on the offensive end. If Indiana has any shot at taking this series, it’s going to have to find a way to score. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on that end of the floor tonight, I’m expecting a much faster paced game in Game 2. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 110-106 Boston. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 57 h 16 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* GAME OF WEEK) After three straight wins, I think the Spurs have a letdown here. San Antonio scored the major upset in Game 1 and with the “split” accomplished, I think that the Spurs predictably come up short here (just like the Nets did last night in their blowout loss to the 76ers!) It’s an identical situation. The 76ers had a great overall year, yet it would have basically all gone to waste if it didn’t buckle down and take care of business in Game 2. And now that’s exactly the same situation that the Nuggets find themselves in. San Antonio is still just 11-12 ATS as a road dog this year, while Denver is still 23-16 ATS as a home favorite (also 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing with two days rest.) Lay the points, expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 112-98 Nuggets. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 82-111 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 22 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (8* BLOWOUT) I had a play on Orlando in its Game 1 upset and while I didn’t call for the outright straight win in Game 1, I’m also not calling for an outright win here either. Rather, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time tonight, I’m going to grab the ample points as I once again expect another tight battle until the end. Note that Orlando won Game 1 despite star big man Nikola Vucevic going only 3 of 11 from the floor. Note that Toronto is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning SU records, while Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU win. Is there any better scenario for Kawhi Leonard to leave in if the Raptors go out in the first round? Leonard had a great regular season and he won’t have any attachment to this team if a first round exit occurs. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 106-104 Raptors. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers +14 v. Warriors | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Clippers (8*) The Warriors pretty much had their way with the Clippers in Game 1. But the playoffs are all about adjustments from game to game and I think the talented Clippers can keep Game 2 much closer than what this spread would suggest. They gave up 121 points in Game 1, but during the regular season they averaged 115.1 PPG themselves. LA has the firepower to match pace today and while the Warriors clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas either, everything points to a competitive battle in my opinion. LA is 3-1 ATS this season revenging four or more loss vs. an opponent in the last two years. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 120-115 Warriors | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors over (10*) The Warriors pretty much had their way with the Clippers in Game 1. But the playoffs are all about adjustments from game to game and I think the talented Clippers can keep Game 2 much closer than what this spread would suggest. They gave up 121 points in Game 1, but during the regular season they averaged 115.1 PPG themselves. LA has the firepower to match pace today and while the Warriors clearly won’t be taking the foot off the gas either, everything points to a competitive battle in my opinion. Note that LA has seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 21 revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total soar over in 11 of its last 18 after a cover as a double digit favorite. This number is low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-115 Warriors. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Nets +7.5 v. 76ers | 123-145 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 25 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: 76ers (8*) I had a play on the “under” in the Nets’ 103-92 Game 1 victory. In Game 2 I like the home side to bounce back with a resounding victory. The main goal of any visiting team in the first round of the playoffs is to simply earn a “split,” so as to gain control of the “home court advantage” moving forward. With that task accomplished, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here from Brooklyn. The Nets are a deep team, but their inconsistency on the road (just 7-8 ATS this year as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range) will be their downfall tonight in my opinion. Philly on the other hand is still 12-7 ATS this year as a home favorite in the same points range. I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 118-107 76ers. WRONG TEAM CHOSEN: This is a play on the 76ers..not the Nets. Sorry for the confusion...play entering mistake! | |||||||
04-14-19 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 86-121 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Milwaukee Bucks (10* BEST OF BEST) I’m expecting a decisive blowout here. Detroit won its final two regular season games to qualify for the eight spot. The Pistons reward? A date vs. Milwaukee, a team it went 0-4 against in the regular season. The Pistons average 107 PPG and they allow 107.3. The Bucks average 118.1 PPG and they allow 109.3. Milwaukee is 12-3 ATS vs. the division this year, while Detroit is just 6-9 ATS in the same position. Like the Warriors did last night, look for the No. 1 seed in the East to deliver a message here as well. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Bucks. | |||||||
04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 211 | 101-96 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 16 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Nuggets over (8*) These are two hard-nosed defensive minded clubs, but I believe they’ll engage in an up-tempo “shootout” to open this series. I think these teams are evenly matched. The Spurs averaged 111.7 PPG and they allowed 110, while Denver averaged 110.7 PPG, while allowing 106.7. Note that SA has seen the total go over the number in 17 of 24 this year as a road underdog, while Denver has seen the total soar over in seven of its last ten after failing to cover the spread in two straight games. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Denver. | |||||||
04-13-19 | Spurs +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Antonio Spurs (10* TRADE-MARK) These are two hard-nosed defensive minded clubs, but I believe they’ll engage in an up-tempo “shootout” to open this series. I think these teams are evenly matched. The Spurs averaged 111.7 PPG and they allowed 110, while Denver averaged 110.7 PPG, while allowing 106.7. Note though that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 ATS this year trying to revenge a road blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more, while Denver is interestingly only 33-34 ATS this season vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. T.M. Prediction: 112-110 Denver. | |||||||
04-13-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 231.5 | 104-121 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Clippers/Warriors over (8*) What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about the Clippers and Warriors? For me it’s high-scoring offense. Golden State went 3-1 in this season series and it’ll be out to send an early message to the rest of the league in this one in my estimation. The Clippers will need to match pace or risk getting blown out. I expect a very fast paced affair from the opening tip, until the final horn. Note that LA has seen the total go over in its last three as a road dog in the 12.5 to 18 points range, while Golden State has seen the total go over the number in 13 of its last 17 as the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. This number is a little low. T.M. Prediction: 133-120 Warriors. | |||||||
04-13-19 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 216 | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Magic/Raptors under (8*) Orlando averages 107.3 PPG and it allowed just 106.3. Toronto averaged 114.4 PPG and it allowed just 108.4. These two defensive minded clubs will each be looking to set the tone early. With each side trying to “play to its strength,” this one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. Note as well that Orlando has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 when playing on two days rest, while Toronto has seen the total dip under in five of its last seven at home. T.M. Prediction: 108-100 Raptors. | |||||||
04-13-19 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 216 | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Nets/76ers under (8*) I’m expecting a slower paced “war” between these divisional foes. These teams split their season series, with each winning at home and on the road. Note though that the Nets have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 16 after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of its last 18 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high. T.M. Prediction: 110-105 76ers. | |||||||
04-10-19 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 225.5 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Pacers/Hawks under (10* O/U MONEY-MAKER) Meaningless game. The Pacers are locked into the fifth spot in the East and a win or a loss today will do nothing to change that. Indiana will be resting most of its starters and the Hawks don’t even have the added motivation of playing “spoiler” here. Indiana has taken all three earlier meetings and while it may fall short here because of the circumstances, in my opinion this one absolutely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. Additionally note that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 29 of 37 as a favorite this season, while ATL has seen the total dip under in eight of its last 12 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-108 Indiana. | |||||||
04-09-19 | Knicks v. Bulls OVER 216.5 | 96-86 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Knicks/Bulls over (8* MONEY-MAKER) Two teams with nothing to play for collide on Tuesday night. Both teams will feature plenty of young talent and players looking to pick up contracts for next season. In an environment like this, I’m expecting an extremely fast paced affair. With every player looking to stuff the stat sheet and with defense becoming a very secondary concern, I expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later. I’ll point out as well though that New York has seen the total go over in four of its last five as a road dog of six points or less, while Chicago has seen the total soar over in 20 of its last 32 trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Bulls. | |||||||
04-09-19 | Hornets v. Cavs +7 | Top | 124-97 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Cavaliers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Cavaliers are looking to snap a nine-game slide, while also looking to play spoiler here to the Hornets, who are in a dog fight until the end for one of the final spots in the East. Overall the Hornets average 110.5 PPG, while allowing 111.9. The Cavs average 104.6 PPG, while conceding 114. I’ll point out though that the Hornets are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Cleveland is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. Expect the home side to push this one to the brink. T.M. Prediction: 111-110 Hornets. | |||||||
04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Blazers under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) This is a big game for both teams. The Nuggets just clinched their division with a 119-110 win over Portland on Friday, but they still have a shot at taking the entire Western Conference. The Blazers have been almost unbeatable at home, but key injuries to center Jusuf Nurkic and to CJ McCollum could be catching up to Portland. The Nuggets aren’t a high-scoring team anyways, instead relying on a top notch defense and efficient offensive attack that runs through big man Nikola Jokic. Portland is running out of gas in my opinion as well. This one has the feel of more of a “chess match” than a “track meet.” Play the under. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY | |||||||
04-07-19 | Clippers +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-131 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Clippers (10* GAME OF THE MONTH) The Clippers are in a dog fight for one of the final spot in the West. They’ll be eager to get back on track here and to try and score the upset win after a 135-103 home loss to Houston and a 122-117 setback to the Lakers. “(If) we lose a couple more, we’ll be in the eight seed,” head coach Doc Rivers admitted, preceding that comment with some sarcasm. “That would be really smart on our part. (The seeding) matters. It absolutely matters. I don’t think anybody wants to go play Golden State. If we have to, we’ll be ready. But my guess is the other seven teams aren’t volunteering. That’s all I’m going to say.” Golden State is on the verge of clinching the Western Conference, but after four straight wins, I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here. Outright upset? Nah! But grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments. T.M. Prediction: FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY | |||||||
04-03-19 | Spurs +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 85-113 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Spurs are trying desperately to avoid eighth spot in the West, which would almost assuredly mean a matchup with the Warriors. San Antonio handled the Hawks 117-111 at home last night and I think they carry that momentum over into the first game of their final road trip of the year. Denver on the other hand was busy losing 116-102 to the Warriors last night and I think it comes in still collectively caught up on that setback. Note that the Spurs are 32-22 ATS this year vs. teams which average over 106 plus points per contest, while Denver is just 6-9 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This one comes down to the wire, so grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Spurs. | |||||||
04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Nuggets/Warriors under (10* O/U BLACK-LABEL) What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offense. However, I believe we’ll see a much more defensive affair this time around as the visitors try to control the tempo/pace from the outset. Denver only averages 110.9 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 106.7. Golden State is out for its fourth win in five games and it holds a 1.5 games lead in the West over Denver now. Clearly this is going to be a “battle,” and in my opinion it’ll be a low-scoring defensive one. The Warriors average 117.7 PPG and concede 111.5, but note that GS has seen the total go under in 15 of its last 20 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. T.M. Prediction: 117-109 Warriors. | |||||||
04-01-19 | Hornets v. Jazz -11.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Utah Jazz (10* MONEY-MAKER) Utah has won four straight over some pretty mediocre competition, but it finds itself in another favorable situation here, facing a Hornets team that comes in off a blowout loss in Golden State just last night. The Hornets would need to sweep the board and get outside help to make the playoffs at this point, while Utah is looking to gain ground. From a situational stand point, this one sets up fantastically for the home side. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 118-100 Jazz. | |||||||
03-31-19 | Hornets v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 90-137 | Win | 100 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hornets/Warriors under (10* O/U BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams have ben playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late as each pushes for towards the playoffs. The Hornets predictably play with revenge here. Charlotte is in tenth in the East, but only two games behind Miami for the eighth spot. The Hornets have won four of their last five. Overall the Hornets average only 110.9 PPG, while allowing 111.9. The Warriors come in off an exhausting OT loss in Minnesota, and I think they’ll be “gassed” here. I expect the home side to try and control and dictate the tempo of this one, rather than trying to push the pace and shoot the lights out. It’s a great situational play in my opinion as all signs point to a defensive affair. T.M. Prediction: 112-100 Warriors | |||||||
03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons -3 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Blazers come in off a big win on the road over Atlanta just last night. Detroit plays with the immediate revenge factor here after falling 117-112 in Portland just last week. The Pistons are in sixth spot in the East, but only 1.5 games ahead of ninth place Orlando, who they picked up a win over in their last outing. Note that Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing the second game of a back-to-back, while Detroit is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600. Detroit is in a dog fight as it looks to maintain positioning and I expect it to make the most of this situation. T.M. Prediction: 114-103 Detroit. | |||||||
03-29-19 | Wizards +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 124-128 | Win | 100 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Wizards (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Wizards have essentially been eliminated from the playoffs, s they’d need to sweep their remaining six games, while also getting a lot of outside help. The odds are against Washington tremendously, but after breaking a five-game slide with a win over Phoenix last time out, clearly it hasn’t quite thrown in the towel yet. The Jazz come in on the other end of the spectrum having won four straight. Will they “get caught looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight? I think the answer to that is: “very possibly!” Note that Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Utah is just 10-16 ATS this season after having won three of its last four games. I’m grabbing all these points. T.M. Prediction: 114-110 Utah. | |||||||
03-27-19 | Wizards v. Suns UNDER 231 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wizards/Suns under (10* TOTAL BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST) I base my picks on many different things. This one is based mainly on the overall situation and some strong/relevant O/U ATS stats. As note that Washington comes in “dog tired” after its game at the Lakers on Tuesday night. The Suns are coming off a 125-92 loss to the Jazz, their fourth straight setback. Phoenix is going through the motions as it plays out the tail end of another disastrous campaign. Washington beat Phoenix 149-146 in triple OT at home earlier in the year, but the overall situation points to much more of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around (it’s interesting to note that the Suns have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last ten in trying to revenge an in-season loss vs. a non-conference opponent in which it allowed 140 or more points in.) This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: (FINAL PREDICTED SCORE COMING SHORTLY) | |||||||
03-26-19 | Magic v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 104-99 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Heat (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Magic torched the 76ers at home just last night, but I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back to back vs. a Heat team fighting for one of the final playoff spots in the East. Also note that Miami plays with “revenge” here after losing two of three in the season series. Note that the Magic are just 5-8 in the second game of back-to-backs this year, averaging 110.8 PPG and allowing 112.2 in those situations. The Heat return home rested after demolishing the Wizards on the road Saturday. Now tied with Orlando for the final spot, clearly the home side will be looking to push the pace from start to finish. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games. vs. a team with a losing road record, while Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. T.M. Prediction: 110-95 Heat. | |||||||
03-25-19 | Nets +6 v. Blazers | Top | 144-148 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Brooklyn Nets (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Nets come in with some momentum here after back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Kings. Portland comes in having won three straight vs. Detroit, Dallas and Indiana. Two teams hungry for more wins to bolster their playoff positioning from difference conferences collide and I’m expecting a battle until the end. The Nets just held the Lakers offense to 38.5 percent shooting. The Nets are 61-44 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog (including a money-making 17-14 this season), while Portland is just 12-21 ATS in its last 33 as a home favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range (including only 4-6 this year.) Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 113-112 Nets. | |||||||
03-24-19 | Nuggets v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 88-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers (10* BLACK-LABEL) Denver smashed the Knicks 111-93 on the road on Friday, while the Pacers return home to friendly confines off a humbling 0-4 Western Conference road trip, including a 112-89 setback to Golden State on Thursday. Part of their losing road trip included a 102-100 loss in Denver on March 16th. With a chance to avenge that loss and to break the four-game slide, I look for the home side to risk life and limb here as it tries to get back into the playoff hunt. Denver comes in complacent at the end of its trip and note that it’s just 1-3 ATS in its last four after six or more SU wins. Additionally note that the Pacers are already 4-1 ATS this year as a home dog of six points or less. T.M. Prediction: 108-103 Pacers. | |||||||
03-23-19 | Suns +10 v. Kings | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Phoenix Suns (10* MONEY-MAKER) The Kings are desperately trying to post some wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Suns won’t be in the playoffs, but they’ll be trying to play spoiler here. The Kings come in off a win over the Mavericks, but after three straight losses, including a blowout setback at home to the Pistons, I think the Suns will give Sacramento everything it can handle tonight. Note that Phoenix is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 after two straight blowout losses of 15 points or more, while Sacramento is still only 6-8 ATS vs. the division. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 116-114 Kings. | |||||||
03-22-19 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 221 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Spurs/Rockets over (10* TOTAL OF YEAR) I’m expecting a wide-open “shootout” between these heated Western Conference rivals. The Spurs are looking to get back on track after their nine-game win streak was snapped in a lacklustre effort at home to the Heat. The Rockets are also looking to atone for a poor setback on the road to Memphis. After extended streaks, each of these top Western Conference foes had a letdown last time out, setting up what I believe the perfect spot to pull the trigger on the “over” here. Note as well that the Spurs have seen the total go over the number in five of their last six when playing with double revenge vs. an opponent, while Houston has seen the total fly over in 21 of its last 31 at home. This number is a little low, play the over. T.M. Prediction: 120-116 Houston. | |||||||
03-21-19 | Pistons -6.5 v. Suns | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Pistons (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Detroit’s been playing a lot better since the All Star break. After back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Raptors, the Pistons will be out to atone for a lacklustre effort vs. the Cavs in their last game. After a three week surge about a month ago, the Suns have predictably come back down to Earth and they enter off a deflating loss at home to the lowly Bulls. Phoenix has struggled in this spot for bettors for quite some time, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. I’m laying the points and expecting the Pistons to get back on track in this favorable spot. T.M. Prediction: 120-108 Pistons. | |||||||
03-20-19 | Jazz v. Knicks +12 | Top | 137-116 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Knicks (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Outright upset? Probably not. But I think the visitors come in complacent and get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Jazz come in off a 116-95 road win over Washington on Monday, while the Knicks were killed 128-92 on the road in Toronto on Monday. Not surprisingly the home side plays with revenge here after falling 129-97 in the first matchup of the season in Utah back on December 29th. Utah’s won four straight, but with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, it’s not to difficult to see the visitors also getting caught “looking past” their opponent as well. Additionally note that Utah is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while New York is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a home dog in the same points range. Yes the Knicks are just counting down the minutes to the off-season, but this one sets up great from a situational stand point. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 107-105 Utah. | |||||||
03-19-19 | Nets v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 123-121 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Sacramento Kings (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Nets have lost three straight on their current road trip and I think they’ll stumble again here in this difficult road venue. Sacramento’s playoff hopes are fading, but it comes in with momentum after breaking a three-game slide by knocking off the Bulls on Sunday. I think the Nets are still mentally caught up on their last loss, giving up a ten point lead in the final minute and losing on a last second three-pointer by one point. The Kings clearly haven’t thrown in the towel yet and I think they keep the momentum rolling tonight. Not as well that Brooklyn is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a losing SU record, while the Kings are 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 121-110 Kings. | |||||||
03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards +4 | Top | 116-95 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Washington Wizards (10* MONEY-MAKER) Utah comes in off a satisfying 114-98 home win over the Nets on Saturday, while the Wizards got back on track in the Nation’s capital with a come from behind 135-128 home win over the Grizzlies. The Jazz got things turned around during a four-game home stand, going 3-1, including posting three straight victories. Utah averages 110.1 PPG and it allows 106.4. The Wizards average 114.6 PPG and they allow 116.9. But the Jazz find themselves in a classic “trap” game here. Winning at home is one thing, but Utah’s achilles heel has been its play on the road. The Wizards aren’t going down without a fight in the weak Eastern Conference and I believe they’ll take their complacent opponent down to the wire. Note as well that Utah is just 11-12 ATS this year off a home victory, while Washington is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog. I smell an upset. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Wizards. | |||||||
03-17-19 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Hawks/Magic under (10* TOTAL MONEY-MAKER) I base my picks on many different things. I think Atlanta comes in dog tired here after its 129-100 loss in Boston last night. The Hawks turned the ball over 17 times and I have a hard time seeing the team “getting up” for the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Orlando got back on track with a win over the Cavs in its latest outing. Orlando’s defense was impressive, holding the Cavs to just 40 percent shooting, including only 7 of 31 from 3-point land. Note that Orlando has seen the total go under in 21 of its last 31 vs. teams with a winning percentage below .400, while ATL has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 13 in the second game of a back to back. This number is a little high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 110-103 Magic | |||||||
03-16-19 | Pacers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana Pacers (10*) The Pacers have won back-to-back games. So have the Nuggets. Both teams will be in the postseason and I don’t expect either to go down without a fight tonight. Indiana comes in off a big come from behind win over OKC at home and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Indiana is 12-7 ATS this year after playing two straight home games, while Denver is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 108-107 Pacers. | |||||||
03-16-19 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 232.5 | 138-136 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Suns/Pelicans under (8*) Phoenix comes in off a 108-102 loss in Houston just last night and I think it’ll have a difficult time here mustering up much of an offensive attack here either. New Orleans also played just last night, falling 122-110 at home to Portland. Neither team has anything to play for here and losses would in fact help out their upcoming lottery chances. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair. Note as well that Phoenix has seen the total go under in nine of 13 this year already when the total in the contest is set at 230 or higher, while New Orleans has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 as a home favorite of six points or less. This number is high, play the under. T.M. Prediction: 111-110 Pelicans. |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |