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My selection is on BYU minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Utah State might not be the worst defensive team in the country but it's in the conversation. Looking back, all of the signs were there in the Aggies 31-20 Week 0 victory over Connecticut. The Huskies have one of the most punchless offenses in the nation yet they managed to score 20 points, including two first quarter touchdowns in Utah State's season and home-opener. From there we saw an expected rout at the hands of Alabama before the Aggies returned home for what should have been a big bounce-back performance against FCS squad Weber State. Instead, Utah State lost 35-7. Last Saturday, the Aggies gave up three touchdowns in the game's first 19 minutes on their way to a 34-24 defeat. You get the picture. BYU figures to take advantage. The Cougars weren't their sharpest offensively but still scored four touchdowns in the first three quarters on their way to a 38-24 win over a 'tough out' in the Wyoming Cowboys last Saturday (we won with Wyoming in its outright upset of Air Force a week earlier). BYU allowed a touchdown just under two minutes into the second quarter in that contest but then held the Cowboys out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Note that earlier this season we saw the Cougars hold a potent Baylor offense out of the end zone until less than two minutes remaining in the first half, eventually winning that game by a 26-20 score in double-overtime. There was also a Week 1 performance where BYU didn't give up any points until South Florida found the end zone with seconds remaining in the first half - after it had fallen behind 38-0. Yes, there was a blowout loss at Oregon but that was a tough spot for BYU after starting 2-0 and coming off that big win over Baylor (note that the Ducks have scored 155 points over their last three games). BYU went on the road and won 34-20 against a much stronger Utah State squad last year - an Aggies team that essentially caught lightning in a bottle. With QB Logan Bonner mired in an awful stretch it stands to reason that Utah State could make a change at quarterback here. I'm just not convinced anyone is going to turn things around on the road on a short week against a quality opponent like BYU. Take BYU (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and N.C. State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Connecticut's 59-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big House last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Huskies travel to Raleigh to face N.C. State. UConn's only hope of staying even remotely competitive in this game is by running the football with the backfield tandem of Victor Rosa and Nathan Carter in an effort to effectively shorten the game. It couldn't gain any sort of traction in that department against Michigan - in fact, QB Zion Turner was the team's leading rusher in that contest with just 42 yards. Still, the game reached 'only' 49 points as the Huskies were shut out. N.C. State exploded offensively against an overmatched FCS opponent in Charleston Southern two weeks ago but aside from that, hasn't been nearly as explosive as Michigan, for example. Last week against Texas Tech, N.C. State didn't reach the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and from there scored just one more offensive touchdown. On the flip side, the Wolfpack held a powerful Texas Tech offense out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half. This is a 'win and move on' type of spot for N.C. State as it opens its ACC schedule with a tough road date against Clemson next Saturday. While Michigan was able to topple the total all on its own last Saturday, I don't expect the Wolfpack to do the same here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on South Carolina minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a brutal spot for Charlotte off a draining 42-41 win over Georgia State (a Georgia State squad that looked absolutely terrible in a similar spot, albeit on a shorter week, against Coastal Carolina on Thursday) last Saturday. The 49ers don't play a lick of defense, having been lit up for 41+ points in all four games to date this season and now make the trip to face a South Carolina squad that will be looking to dummy someone after dropping consecutive blowout decisions against powerful Arkansas and Georgia squads. Keep in mind, these two teams have a common opponent this season as the Gamecocks boat-raced Georgia State by a 35-14 score back in Week 1 while the 49ers needed everything they had in the tank to prevail by a single point last week. South Carolina has had a major problem stopping the run this season but Charlotte wouldn't seem to pose a serious threat in that regard. The 49ers did run for 130+ yards back in Week 1 against FCS squad William & Mary but they needed 37 attempts to get there. This one gets away from the visiting Niners. Take South Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Miami at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think this is a sneaky-tough spot for Miami as it returns home licking its wounds following a 17-9 loss against Texas A&M to host Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders season got start on the wrong foot as they were routed 44-7 on the road against first-year FBS upstart James Madison. MTSU's offense couldn't stay on the field, going three-and-out on its first five drives and its young defense quickly wore down as a result, with the floodgates opening early. We've seen both units settle down over the last two games as the Blue Raiders delivered consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado State and FCS squad Tennessee State. I like some of the pieces MTSU has in place offensively with QB Chase Cunningham back healthy, not to mention a solid wide receiving corps and what appears to be a capable running back in Frank Peasant. Defensively, there are holes to fill but the Blue Raiders can ratchet up the pressure up front and I'm not convinced that Miami can take advantage of its weaknesses in the secondary. MTSU had a miserable time containing James Madison dual-threat QB Todd Centeio but it will deal with a true pocket-passer in Tyler Van Dyke this week. Albeit in a tough matchup against an angry Texas A&M defense, Van Dyke didn't look the same without his early season go-to guy WR Xavier Restrepo last week. Restrepo is sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury. Off the emotional primetime loss to A&M and with ACC play getting rolling with a date against currently undefeated North Carolina next week, I see this as a 'win and move on' type of spot for the Hurricanes as they look to effectively shorten the game and avoid any more key injuries. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*).

My selection is on Temple minus the points over UMass at 2 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in Temple's ugly 16-14 home loss against Rutgers last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Owls as they stay home for a winnable matchup against UMass. Temple is 1-2 to start the season but can take some positives away from its last two games, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Over their last five quarters of football, the Owls have yielded just one offensive touchdown, that coming early in last week's game against Rutgers. Meanwhile, we've at least seen the Owls show some signs of consistency on offense with QB E.J. Warner taking over. He's completed 33-of-50 passes for 388 yards, three touchdowns and just one interception since relieving an injured (and ineffective) D'Wan Mathis. Believe it or not, this is a smash spot for the Temple offense against a UMass squad that has given up points at will against anyone with a pulse this season. Back in Week 1, the Minutemen allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 25 minutes against a mediocre Tulane offense. They were even worse in their next game, yielding six touchdowns in the first 35 minutes against Toledo. They earned a reprieve against FCS squad Stony Brook last week and performed admirably but I expect them to come back to Earth again here, even against a struggling Temple offense. This is obviously a key spot for Temple as it will play its next two games on the road against Memphis and UCF before returning home for no gimme against Tulsa. While a Bowl appearance probably isn't in the cards this year, the Owls can at least keep hope alive with a victory this week. Given the state of the UMass offense - note that last week the Minutemen scored a touchdown in the game's first five minutes against Stony Brook but their offense never reached the end zone again the rest of the way. Prior to that they managed only two offensive touchdowns in their first two games - I'm confident Temple can score enough offensively and let its defense take care of the rest in what should be a lopsided, albeit likely low-scoring result. Take Temple (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in Central Michigan's wild season-opening 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State but I did figure at that time that we would go back to the well with another 'under' play involving the Chippewas at some point. This looks like the right spot as the Chips head back on the road to face an undefeated Penn State squad that is coming off a key blowout win at Auburn last week. It generally takes two teams to topple a total in this range and I'm not convinced the Chips will do their part in this spot. Central Michigan did roll to a 41-0 win over FCS squad Bucknell last week but it's worth noting that it didn't reach the end zone until there were less than five minutes remaining in the first half in that game. They 'only' led 20-0 through three quarters before Bucknell eventually wore down defensively. I certainly don't expect CMU to wear down an elite Penn State defense here. Note that two games back, CMU took 10 minutes to score a touchdown against South Alabama and then didn't reach the end zone again until more than six minutes into the third quarter. The Chips will simply be looking to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game to give themselves any sort of chance after that ugly loss against a similarly tough opponent, Oklahoma State, earlier this month. Penn State has been better than advertised offensively through three games although I do think last week's 41-12 result was a little deceiving (we missed with the 'under' in that game). The Nittany Lions scored just two first half touchdowns in that game, including one less than two minutes before halftime. It was only in the second half where Auburn had a number of defensive miscues and lacked concentration and execution in yielding 27 Nittany Lions points. Here, I expect to see Penn State 'manage' this game (note that in a previous game against another MAC opponent, Ohio, the Nittany Lions ceased scoring from a minute or so into the fourth quarter on in a 46-10 victory). Penn State's Big Ten schedule picks back up again next week and I'm sure it would like to make this tune-up contest as uneventful as possible. Take the under (8*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with Buffalo plus the points in its tough road loss against Coastal Carolina last Saturday as it fell to 0-3 on the season. The Bulls have certainly faced a tough early schedule with games against Maryland and aforementioned CCU on the road and Holy Cross, a top FCS squad, at home. Here, I look for the Bulls to give Eastern Michigan all it can handle, noting that the Eagles are coming off their biggest victory in years, 30-21 on the road against Arizona State last Saturday (we cashed our free play on the 'under' in that game). EMU pulled off that stunning upset victory thanks to 259 rushing yards from RB Samson Evans. I'm chalking that up as an outlier performance as Evans had been held to just 108 yards on 25 carries in the first two games this season. The strength of the Bulls defense is at the linebacker position and I'm confident they can keep Evans under wraps on Saturday. Note that EMU lost QB Taylor Powell to a shoulder injury in last Saturday's win. He's questionable to play this week. If he can't go, it will be Austin Smith under center. He's more of a dual-threat than Powell but I believe Buffalo matches up better against that type of quarterback with their athleticism on defense. Bulls QB Cole Snyder has been under duress for much of the season so far but has held up relatively well. Note that EMU hasn't shown any semblance of a pass rush with just one sack through three games. In a game that I feel will be played closer to the vest than expected (I feel the posted total has been set too high as well), I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Take Buffalo (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Maryland and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Michigan's 59-0 rout of an overmatched Connecticut squad last Saturday. Of course, we needed all 59 points from the Wolverines to get there. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as Michigan gets its first true test of the season against Maryland on Saturday at the Big House. Maryland is off to a 3-0 start following last week's fourth quarter rally against a quality SMU squad. The Terps offense has been humming along, scoring 31, 56 and 34 points through its first three games. We saw a similar story unfold last year with Maryland running up the score against the opponents it should but struggling when the competition stiffened up. Michigan may not have the flashy defense of 2021 with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo having moved on to the NFL, but there's a chance this Wolverines 'D' could be even better. While they've yet to face a true test, I've come away impressed by the way they've completely stifled their first three opponents. In fact they've yet to allow a single first half point with the only two opponents that managed to score on them doing so long after the outcome was already decided. Offensively, the Wolverines, like the Terps, have benefited from facing three relatively weak defensive opponents. I can't help but feel that this Michigan offense, under the guidance of first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, is built to methodically drive down the field and wear down opposing defenses with a steady mix of run and pass rather than come up with a ton of splash plays. Note that the Terps didn't allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter against a terrific SMU offense last week. After giving up a touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, putting it behind 27-20, Maryland posted a shutout the rest of the way, scoring a pair of touchdowns of its own to secure the 34-27 victory over the Mustangs. Prior to that, the Terps had allowed four touchdowns through their first two games although you can take three of those with a grain of salt as they came in a 'defense-optional' rout of Charlotte, which plays as loose as any team in FBS. Michigan crushed Maryland by a 59-18 score in last year's matchup (note that game saw a closing total of 58 so we're dealing with a considerable adjustment here) so you can be sure the Terps gameplan here will involve possessing the football for extended stretches in an effort to effectively shorten the game and limit Michigan's opportunities on offense. On the flip side, I think we'll see Maryland play it fairly safe defensively, allowing Michigan to churn out long scoring drives that ultimately eat the clock and help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Nevada at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won fading Air Force last Friday night as the Falcons lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a tough setting in Laramie, Wyoming. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Air Force (we won with the Falcons just two games back against Colorado) as it returns to Colorado Springs to host a disjointed Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are an even 2-2 to start the season but their outlook is by no means promising. We won with the 'under' in their season-opening 23-12 win on the road against a bad New Mexico State squad in Week 0 but even in that victory there was reason for concern. Nevada didn't score until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and after reaching the end zone with less than a minute remaining in the first half, it failed to record another touchdown in the game's final 30 minutes. After routing a weak Texas State squad the next week, the Wolf Pack got absolutely throttled by FCS squad Incarnate Word 55-41. That final score was actually flattering for the Wolf Pack as Incarnate Word led 55-27 before allowing a couple of late scores. Shane Illingworth took over at quarterback against Iowa last Saturday and proceeded to complete just 14-of-28 passes for 82 yards. Without a dominant offensive line or ground attack, there's just little for this Wolf Pack offense to hang its hat on nearly a month into the season. Defensively, Nevada allowed a punchless Iowa attack to score a pair of first quarter touchdowns last week and again, we learned a lot about this unit in that game against Incarnate Word (the Cardinals scored four offensive touchdowns in the game's first 36 minutes). Air Force will obviously be in a foul mood off last week's defeat and the Falcons are well-positioned to bounce back here at home where they're 2-0 on the campaign, registering 48-17 and 41-10 victories. The last time we saw them here they held Colorado off the scoreboard until just over four minutes into the second quarter and then didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way. Credit Wyoming's defense for bottling up the Falcons option-based offense last week but I don't expect Nevada to do the same, noting that AFA scored 41 points in a wild victory over the Wolf Pack last November. Take Air Force (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off wild games last Saturday with Coastal Carolina recording a 38-26 victory over Buffalo (we won with Buffalo plus the points) and Georgia State falling by a 42-41 score against Charlotte. Last year we saw a closing total of 53 points for this same matchup but the game ended up reaching a whopping 82 points in a Georgia State upset victory. So here we're dealing with a considerably higher total - I believe it will prove to be too high. I can't imagine either team is all that interested in getting involved in another track meet here, playing on a short week off such draining contests just five days previous. Note that while Coastal Carolina did allow 26 points against Buffalo, it actually held the Bulls out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half and didn't give up another touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The final score in that contest was ultimately inflated by a Buffalo defensive breakdown with just over three minutes remaining as Coastal Carolina was just trying to get a couple of first downs and burn out the clock (the Chanticleers scored a 59-yard touchdown). Prior to that contest, Coastal Carolina held FCS squad Gardner-Webb out of the end zone for the first 27 minutes and in its season-opener limited a tough Army offense to 28 points in a game where a few defensive breakdowns (to be expected facing Army's triple-option in Week 1) led to three long touchdowns. The Chanticleers enter this game on a short week with a trio of running backs banged-up. To effectively shorten this game would certainly work in their favor knowing just how explosive the Georgia State offense can be. The Panthers are still winless through three games but they've been competitive in their last two contests against North Carolina and Charlotte. After jumping ahead early in last week's game against Charlotte, the Panthers had a fumble returned for a touchdown which really turned the tide in the game, which ultimately turned into a shootout (to be expected against the 49ers' explosive offense and sieve-like defense). Two games back, the Georgia State offense couldn't stay on the field in the first half, leaving the defense gassed against a high-octane North Carolina offense. The Panthers did go a 23-minute stretch without allowing a touchdown in that contest. In their season-opener, they limited South Carolina to only two offensive touchdowns in a game that was scoreless until the second minute of the second quarter. My point being, the Panthers defense is better than it has showed on the scoreboard through three games and will certainly be amped up to face former teammate, WR Sam Pinckney who transferred to Coastal Carolina after last season. Keep in mind, this is an experienced Panthers defense (with seven returning starters) that held six of eight Sun Belt Conference opponents to 21 points or less last season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Diego State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

After dropping a tough 29-26 decision against Florida at The Swamp back in Week 1, Utah needed a big victory to feel good about itself again last Saturday and it delivered just that to the tune of a 73-7 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Now comes a tougher matchup against San Diego State but I’m confident the Utes will be up to the challenge. Utah left no doubt in last week’s contest, scoring five offensive touchdowns (and adding a field goal) in a 14-minute span in the second quarter. I liked the way the Utes continued to pour it on late in that game, adding three more touchdowns in the final 23 minutes, even with the outcome having long been decided. There were certainly some signs of rust offensively, particularly early on against Florida but that has clearly been taken care of. San Diego State opened with a 38-20 drubbing at the hands of Arizona before rebounding with a 38-7 win over Idaho State last week. Note that it took the Aztecs nearly 10 minutes before they scored their first offensive touchdown in that win over Idaho State and that came on the sort of defensive breakdown you just won’t see from Utah. There was also a stretch where the Aztecs were held out of the end zone for 35 minutes in that contest - not encouraging considering that was against the likes of FCS squad Idaho State. The jury is still out as to whether former Virginia Tech standout QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. San Diego State always brings a solid defense to the table but here it will be dealing with its toughest offensive opponent to date, and we’ll note that it yielded an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in its season-opener against Arizona prior to last week’s victory. Take Utah (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Texas A&M at 9 pm et on Saturday.

NOTE: Late in the week the Aggie announced that Max Johnson would get the start at quarterback in place of Haynes King. More of a pocket-passer capable of elevating his receivers, I don't mind the move and will stick with the play on the 'over'.

This total has taken a nosedive since opening, rightfully so in the eyes of most after Texas A&M was held to just 14 points in an upset loss against Appalachian State last Saturday. I'm confident we'll see the Aggies offense bounce back in a high-profile matchup with 2-0 Miami this week. We won with the 'under' in the Hurricanes 30-7 rout of Southern Miss in searing southern Florida heat last Saturday. Miami feasted on a one-dimensional Golden Eagles offense on that day. While the Canes did lose standout WR Xavier Restrepo in that victory, I'm confident others can step up in his absence on Saturday. I think it's important not to write off teams after one bad performance and that's the case with A&M here, particularly on offense. QB Haynes King was awful last week but keep in mind he's just one game removed from passing for 364 yards and three touchdowns in his season debut. Highly-touted RB Devon Achane was held in check by Appalachian State last week as well. Again, here I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from the electric RB who did return a kick for a touchdown in last week's defeat. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and LSU at 6 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in Mississippi State's rout of Arizona last Saturday. We probably deserved a better fate but the scoring fizzled after a 22-point first quarter and the game ultimately finished just a shade 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Bulldogs are off to a roaring start offensively and that's to be expected as they have all of the pieces in place and a head coach that knows how to get the most out of those pieces in Mike Leach. I like the way Mississippi State has continued to pour it on late in its first two games, even with the outcome already all but decided. The Bulldogs have scored four fourth quarter touchdowns. All most can think about when it comes to LSU is that disappointing season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State. Few were paying atttention but the Tigers absolutely exploded offensively last week against FCS squad Southern, putting up 37 points before the game was even a quarter old. Incredibly, LSU has now scored a whopping 11 offensive touchdowns over essentially the last five quarters of football (the Tigers scored with eight seconds remaining in the third quarter of their season-opener against Florida State). Last week's matchup between these two teams totalled 53 points and that's where this total sits at the time of writing. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Kansas rolls into this showdown with Houston sporting a perfect 2-0 record off last week's stunning overtime win on the road against West Virginia. I expect the Jayhawks to have their hands full against the 1-1 Houston Cougars on Saturday though. Kansas actually fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter against West Virginia last week and I think the Mountaineers believed it was going to be a cakewalk at that point. The Jayhawks would go on to yield another touchdown early in the second quarter - they allowed three touchdowns before the game was even 17 minutes old. From there, Kansas' offense picked up the pace and was a thorn in the Mountaineers side all game long. Of course West Virginia's defense might just be awful given the way it has performed so far this season. It's a different story with Houston. The Cougars are battle-tested after defeating an excellent UTSA squad on the road in overtime in Week 1 and then dropping a tough overtime decision on the road against Texas Tech last week. There were positives to take away from both games. Of course the offense will be fine. The defense, however, despite allowing 68 points, has fared well. The Cougars didn't allow an explosive UTSA offense to score until just shy of two minutes into the second quarter in Week 1. After allowing a Roadrunners touchdown with around four minutes left in the third quarter, Houston held them out of the end zone for the rest of regulation time (and the first overtime). Last week, the Cougars held the Red Raiders out of the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter. Texas Tech had a late touchdown in the final minute of the first half but from there didn't reach the end zone again until the first overtime. You get the picture. I expect Kansas to be taken out of its element in this one. Houston is familiar with facing dual-threat quarterbacks already this season and I don't expect it to be blindsided by Kansas QB Jalon Daniels. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Wisconsin minus the points over New Mexico State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We successfully faded Wisconsin in its outright loss to Washington State last Saturday. That result didn’t actually come as nearly as big of a surprise to us as it did to most. Here, the Badgers have an ideal ‘get right’ matchup against lowly New Mexico State and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and lay the points. New Mexico State is 0-3 to start the season, scoring just 25 points in those three contests. QB Diego Pavia has been the Aggies leading rusher in all three games which is concerning when you consider he’s topped out at 69 rushing yards - that coming in last week’s loss to UTEP. I question whether the Aggies can do enough offensively to stay on the field and give their defense a break against Wisconsin, which should absolutely own the battle in the trenches. In a similar matchup at Minnesota two games back, New Mexico State allowed 485 total yards including just shy of 300 on the ground in a 38-0 loss. Look for the Badgers backfield tandem of Allen and Mellusi to absolutely go off and pace the lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Wisconsin (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Auburn at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'll keep my analysis short with this being a late addition to Saturday's card. Last year's meeting between these two teams totalled exactly 48 points, which just happens to be the total being offered at most books this time around. Penn State 'only' scored 28 points in that game despite completing 29-of-33 passes for over 300 yards. Auburn 'only' scored 20 points despite rushing for just shy of 200 yards. Here, I look for the defenses to step up. Penn State has shredded through a pair of subpar defensive opponents in Purdue and Ohio to open the season, uncharacteristically lighting up the scoreboard for 81 points through two games. Auburn opened the season with a 42-point outburst against FCS opponent Mercer but then only managed 24 points in a sleepy win over San Jose State last week. While I do think we see both offenses move the chains consistently - I think ending drives with touchdowns could prove difficult here. Penn State's secondary bottles up the Auburn pass-catchers and the Tigers get to Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford early and often. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Last year, we hit one of our biggest plays of the season on Rutgers minus the points against Temple in an eventual 61-14 rout. I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this year’s rematch at Lincoln Financial Field. Rutgers blew the doors off FCS squad Wagner last week, scoring 66 points in a 59-point victory. Let’s not get too carried away by that result, however. The Scarlet Knights are just one game removed from scoring just 22 points in a narrow win over Boston College in their season-opener. There are still question marks on the offensive line and at quarterback, where Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt have split time under center (I’m rarely a fan of the time share at quarterbackat this level). Temple dropped its opener by a 30-0 score at Duke but rebounded for a 30-14 win over FCS squad Lafayette last Saturday. Note that after scoring a touchdown in the game’s first five minutes against Lafayette, the Owls didn’t reach the end zone again until the final three minutes of the first half. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in the third quarter when the result of the game was still hanging in the balance, up by a 21-14 score. I won’t knock the Temple defense too much for that ugly loss at Duke in Week 1. To its credit it did hold the Blue Devils out of the end zone over the game’s final 37 minutes and got very little help from its offense in that one. Here, I’m confident the Owls offense can move the football just enough to keep their defense fresh and ultimately limit the scoring in this contest. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Ohio at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Iowa State may not have looked overly impressive in an ugly 10-7 victory over rival Iowa last Saturday but that’s just how that series goes. Keep in mind, the Cyclones scored three offensive touchdowns before their season-opener against FCS squad Southeast Missouri State was a quarter-and-a-half old and they’ll be up against a similarly-porous defense here. Ohio got its season started with an impressive 41-38 win over Florida Atlantic as QB Kurtis Rourke had the game of his life, completing 27-of-34 passes for 345 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing score. The Bobcats were quickly brought back to Earth in a 46-10 rout at the hands of Penn State last Saturday. Even after the Nittany Lions brought in the backups up big in the third quarter, they still managed to tack on three more touchdowns. Expect the Bobcats defense to once again have its hands full here. While Breece Hall is no longer storming out of the backfield for Iowa State, Jirehl Brock has impressed, running for 204 yards and a score on 43 carries. WR Xavier Hutchinson is already in midseason form, hauling in 19 catches of 226 yards and four touchdowns and should obliterate an overmatched Ohio secondary here. The Cyclones defense takes care of the rest. Take Iowa State (9*).

My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo is coming off a 37-31 home loss against Holy Cross last Saturday but let’s not get too down on the Bulls for that upset loss. Note that Holy Cross is one of the better FCS teams in the country and Buffalo was actually favored by less than a touchdown in that game. So now Buffalo goes on the road with an 0-2 record (it lost its opener by a 31-10 score at Maryland) to face undefeated Coastal Carolina. I expect the Bulls to give the Chanticleers all they can handle, just as they did in last year’s matchup between these two teams - a 28-25 Coastal Carolina victory in Buffalo. Note that while the Bulls ended up giving up 37 points in last week’s loss, they actually held Holy Cross off the scoreboard entirely for the game’s first 25 minutes. After jumping ahead 21-7 late in the second quarter it almost seemed like the Bulls felt they could shift into cruise control and be gifted a victory. It’s not as if Buffalo had its doors blown off in a tough road game at Maryland in Week 1. It gave up a couple of early touchdowns in that contest but held the Terrapins to just two more touchdowns over the game’s final 47 minutes. Coastal Carolina is off to a perfect 2-0 start after pulling out a win over FCS squad Gardner-Webb thanks to a late touchdown last Saturday. The Chanticleers actually didn’t score an offensive touchdown until past the midway mark of the second quarter in that game and that only came thanks to being gifted excellent field position on a muffed kickoff. While a 38-28 win over Army in the season-opener looks impressive at first glance, it’s important to keep in mind that the Black Knights have been a sieve defensively so far this season. As is the case with a lot of upstart schools that find some success, Coastal Carolina had to deal with plenty of key departures in the offseason and while this is still a very talented football team, I’m not convinced it will prove to be the same juggernaut we’ve seen over the last two seasons. Take Buffalo (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Wolverines have passed every test through their first two games, hanging 51 points on Colorado State and 56 points on Hawaii. Now they get another cupcake matchup against Connecticut and I look for them to do more than enough offensively to help this one ‘over’ the total. Last Saturday we saw Michigan score six offensive touchdowns in the first half alone. I liked the way it closed that game, tacking on two more touchdowns even though the game had long been decided. It was a similar story in Week 1 against Colorado State as the Wolverines sputtered a little bit early, settling for three first half field goals (to go along with two touchdowns) but ended up tacking on three touchdowns in the game’s final 21 minutes. Connecticut has actually shown some signs of life offensively this season, scoring 20, 28 and 14 points through three games. While that may not seem like much, when you consider how punchless the Huskies have been in recent years, it’s a step in the right direction. Defensively, however, UConn remains a mess. Last week, it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the game’s first 43 minutes against Syracuse. The Huskies also got torched for three offensive touchdowns in an 11-minute stretch in the second quarter in their opener against Utah State. Take the over (8*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Air Force at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Air Force in its rout of Colorado last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Falcons as they head to Laramie to take on Wyoming on Friday. This projects are a relatively low-scoring game with a total in the mid-to-high 40's, which obviously favors the Cowboys catching north of two touchdowns. Air Force has averaged 27.8 points the last 67 times it has played with the total set between 42.5 and 49 points. Note that these teams match up every year in the Mountain West Conference. Air Force has scored more than 28 points just once in the last 14 meetings. The only time it did so it still scored 'only' 31 points. That might not be enough to cover the number here. Wyoming already has three games under its belt and seems to have found its identity, pounding the football with a terrific ground game led by RB Titus Swen. You can run on this Air Force defense noting that it has allowed FCS squad Northern Iowa and Colorado to each gain exactly 119 rushing yards, despite negative game script for both of those teams in lopsided contests in favor of the Falcons. Run the football, move the chains and effectively shorten the game. That has to be the gameplan for the Cowboys here and I believe it's one they can execute. When playing on the road off an ATS win, Air Force has outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.2 points (67-game sample size). Take Wyoming (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Mississippi State in its rout of Memphis last Saturday but I'll shift gears this week and back the 'over' as the Bulldogs take their show on the road to face upstart Arizona in Tucson. There was a lot to like about the Bulldogs offense last week as it scored four touchdowns in the game's first 28 minutes before adding three more in the second half. I liked the way they kept their foot on the gas for four quarters (what else would you expect from a Mike Leach offense?), tacking on a touchdown in the game's closing minutes after Memphis had narrowed the gap to 42-23 less than a minute earlier. The Mississippi State defense was able to pin its ears back and attack the Memphis offense after jumping ahead earlier. I expect a different game script to unfold this time around, however. That's because Arizona actually has a legitimate football team this year, as evidenced by last week's stunning 38-20 rout of San Diego State (the Aztecs were opening their brand new home stadium making the victory that much more impressive). The Wildcats offense looked much different with QB Jayden De Laura under center and UTEP transfer WR Jacob Cowing blowing the top off the Aztecs defense. De Laura threw for just shy of 300 yards and four touchdowns in the victory. San Diego State wasn't able to mount any sort of offensive attack but I think that had more to do with transfer QB Braxton Burmeister looking lost in his first game running a new offense (trailing by two touchdowns early in the second quarter didn't help the Aztecs as they're generally a front-running team that likes to pound the football and control the clock). Different story here as this matchup has true shootout potential. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Oklahoma State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed (badly) with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's season-opener against Central Michigan last week as the Cowboys got off to a red hot start and rolled to a 58-44 victory. I can't help but feel Oklahoma State was somewhat embarrassed by its defensive effort in that game though and look for a much cleaner performance against Arizona State this week. Note that Central Michigan threw the football 49 times in that contest. The Cowboys are likely to see nothing of that sort this week as Arizona State QB Emory Jones is as much a threat on the ground as through the air, the polar opposite of what they saw against Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson last week. I'm confident we'll see Oklahoma State's athletic defense contain Jones for the most part on Saturday. Arizona State cruised to a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona in its opener last week. We're talking about a Sun Devils offense going through an overhaul this season and while hanging 40 points on the board was no small feat, even against an FCS opponent, there was some cause for concern. Note that ASU didn't reach the end zone until nearly midway the second quarter in that game and proceeded to stall out and settle for field goals on three drives in NAU territory in the second half. ASU didn't reach the end zone again after scoring a touchdown less than three minutes into the second half. Again, it faces a much tougher challenge this week. Defensively, credit the Sun Devils for not giving an inch against the Lumberjacks - they easily could have gotten complacent after building an insurmountable lead. They yielded just 119 total yards and only six first downs in that contest. Their mettle will undoubtedly be tested this week but this is a talented unit that I believe can hang with the Cowboys offense. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times Oklahoma State has come off an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Tulsa at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Northern Illinois proved to be the very definition of a 'tough out' last season, culminating with a lopsided victory in the MAC Championship Game followed by a gutsy 47-41 loss against a tremendous Coastal Carolina team during Bowl season. The Huskies didn't look all that impressive in a 34-27 season-opening victory against FCS squad Eastern Illinois last week but there were some positives to take away. Northern Illinois' offensive line figures to be a strength with plenty of experience returning and that held true in Week 1 as QB Rocky Lombardi was only sacked once and unlike last year, wasn't forced to run all that much (he had just one rush attempt in the game). There are questions around who will replace RB Jay Ducker but Harrison Waylee looked like a fine candidate last week, gaining 83 yards and adding a touchdown on 14 carries. The Huskies didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the third quarter against EIU last week. The fact that they gave up a pair of fourth quarters touchdowns won't sit well, however, and I expect a little more of a 'killer instinct' from the NIU defense here. Tulsa suffered a tough 40-37 double-overtime loss at Wyoming last week. Unlike NIU, Tulsa needs to rework its entire offensive line and that appeared to be a major problem last Saturday as it gave up four sacks in the loss. While the Tulsa defense actually held up better than it showed on paper (Wyoming scored only two offensive touchdowns in regulation time), it was also up against a Cowboys offense that looked putrid the week previous against Illinois. The Golden Hurricane defense will be taking a step up in class here. While Tulsa desperately needs a win here in its home opener, I simply feel that it is being asked to lay too many points. Take Northern Illinois (8*).

SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and Florida at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter Saturday's showdown in the Swamp off to 1-0 records. This rivalry has produced plenty of relatively low-scoring contests over the years. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time the two teams totalled more than 50 points. While Florida certainly impressed offensively behind a tremendous performance from QB Anthony Richardson in last week's upset win over Utah, it won't benefit from the same element of surprise against the Wildcats. It's not as if Florida tore through the Utes defense last Saturday. In fact, it only managed to score 14 points through the game's first three quarters. I came away impressed by the Gators defense as they allowed an early touchdown in the first four minutes but then held the Utes out of the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter. They also came up with a game-clinching interception in the end zone as the clock ticked down in the fourth quarter. Here, the Gators will benefit from facing a Kentucky offense that is reworking its offensive line after a host of departures (it yielded four sacks to QB Will Levis in the opener) and also dealing with the absence of standout RB Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky did score 37 points in last week's victory but that came against a middling MAC squad in Miami-Ohio. The Wildcats scored a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone on offense again until being gifted terrific field position thanks to a Redhawks turnover early in the third quarter (they did return the second half kickoff for a touchdown as well). On the flip side, Kentucky gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of that game but then held Miami-Ohio out of the end zone for the game's final 54 minutes. I can't help but feel the Wildcats defense is well ahead of the offense at this early stage of the season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Houston at 4 pm et on Saturday.

While Houston enters this game nationally-ranked I believe Texas Tech being installed as the favorite is warranted. The Cougars barely pulled out a 37-35 win over Texas-San Antonio last Saturday. While the Roadrunners were going to be a formidable opponent regardless, there was reason for concern around Houston coming out of that contest. The Cougars didn't reach the end zone until the second quarter and then proceeded to allow three consecutive UTSA touchdowns to fall behind 21-7 entering the fourth quarter. While they did ultimately wake up and rally, they also allowed UTSA to march down the field in just 20 seconds and kick a game-tying field goal in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter. It was a shaky performance all around from Houston. Texas Tech on the other hand looked like a well-oiled machine in a 63-10 rout of FCS squad Murray State. The Red Raiders did lose QB Tyler Shough to a shoulder injury in the victory but backup Donovan Smith stepped in and completed 14-of-17 passes for 221 yards and four touchdowns in relief. He saw plenty of playing time during his freshman season last year and I'm confident the offense will keep rolling along with Shough sidelined. Even with third-string QB Behren Morton in the game in the fourth quarter last Saturday, the Red Raiders were still able to tack on another touchdown. Texas Tech defeated Houston 38-21 in last year's meeting at AT&T Stadium. As much as Houston would like to exact its revenge here, I believe it will be hard-pressed to do so. Take Texas Tech (10*).

My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force as it looks to improve to 2-0 on the season after last week's 48-17 rout of FCS squad Northern Iowa. The Falcons offense appeared to be in midseason form in that contest, scoring six touchdowns and racking up just shy of 700 yards of total offense. Colorado's defense actually held up as well as could have been expected, at least through the first three quarters, but still lost by a 38-13 score against TCU last Saturday, at home no less. Concerning was the fact that the Buffaloes had no response to TCU's halftime adjustments on offense, allowing four second half touchdowns, including three in an eight-minute span when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter. Offensively, Colorado didn't come up with a touchdown until the game was completely out of hand (the Horned Frogs led 38-6 at the time) in the game's final two minutes. Air Force's Week 1 victory could have been even more lopsided were it not for it allowing two late scores in the fourth quarter. I think that lack of focus on the defensive side of the football late actually helps our cause here and the Falcons know they'll have to display more of a killer instinct against a tougher opponent than they faced last week. These two teams last met in 2019 with Air Force prevailing by a 30-23 score. The talent gap has widened since in my opinion. While the Falcons do lose plenty of key pieces from last year's team, particularly on defense, I'm not convinced Colorado has the offense, which still lacks a true leader at quarterback, to take advantage. Take Air Force (9*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's time to start giving Wazzou the respect it deserves. The Cougars have gone Bowling in six of the last seven seasons. They're a profitable 33-22 ATS the last 55 times they've checked in as an underdog priced between +10.5 and +21, as is the case here. While last week's narrow 24-17 victory over Idaho was unimpressive, I'm willing to give the Cougars a mulligan as they're working in a new offense with a number of new pieces. There were positives to take away. The ground game got rolling with former Wisconsin RB Nakia Watson gaining 117 yards on just 18 carries while also hauling in a couple of catches for 17 yards. Once QB Cam Ward settled in, he threw for three touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. There was a stretch where Washington State scored on three consecutive drives. Three lost fumbles contributed to the low-scoring result but that can be cleaned up. It's the Cougars defense that has the potential to be special this year in my opinion. While it came against lowly Idaho, Washington State did rack up seven sacks to go along with a pair of interceptions in last week's victory. The secondary might be the weak spot early on but does Wisconsin have the type of offense to take advantage? The Badgers rolled to a 38-0 rout of FCS squad Illinois State in their season-opener. Note that the offense didn't reach the end zone until early in the second quarter in that contest (Wisconsin did score on a pick-six late in the first quarter). As usual, QB Graham Mertz was little more than a game manager with RB Braelon Allen doing much of the heavy lifting, running for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries (96 of those yards came on one touchdown run). While I'm not about to call for an outright upset, I do think the Cougars will be a 'tough out' on Saturday afternoon in Madison. Take Washington State (8*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Navy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This total has dropped since opening, an overreaction to Navy's ugly 14-7 loss to FCS squad Delaware in its season-opener last week. Here, I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair as the Midshipmen look to avenge last year's 35-17 rout at the hands of Memphis. The Tigers dropped a 49-23 decision at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). Their defense, which struggled last year, has lost a number of key parts and it certainly showed against Mississippi State as they gave up five touchdowns in the first 35 minutes. Even when the game had long been decided, the Bulldogs were able to tack on two touchdowns in the final six minutes of the fourth quarter. The good news is, Memphis did manage to score 20+ points despite going entirely one-dimensional early on. RB Jeyvon Ducker - a transfer from Northern Illinois - was a bright spot, running for 63 yards and a score on just five carries. I do think the potential is there for the Tigers offense to go off against an average Navy defense that certainly doesn't get better by losing a talent like Diego Fagot to the NFL. Fagot isn't the only departure from a Navy defense that wasn't all that great to begin with last year (as I mentioned earlier, the Midshipmen gave up 35 points in last year's matchup against Memphis). Navy's offense was putrid against Delaware last week. There's no reason to expect the Midshipmen to be that bad offensively here in 2022. They did gain 319 total yards in that setback and had 17 first downs compared to Delaware's 13. Three failed fourth down conversions contributed to Navy's downfall in that contest. I believe the potential is there for this one to go back-and-forth all afternoon long and we're being offered a favorable total to work with when you consider last year's meeting saw a closing number of 56. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Southern Miss and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Miami scored a whopping 70 points in its season-opening win over FCS squad Bethune-Cookman - a statement performance for a team that enters the 2022 campaign with sky-high expectations. While the Hurricanes should stay undefeated here, I don't expect them to find the going nearly as easy offensively. Bethune-Cookman quite simply couldn't keep its offense on the field early in last week's game, allowing 42 points in the first half alone. I do think Southern Miss can do a better job of that with an effective ground attack led by Frank Gore Jr., who ran for 178 yards on 32 carries in last week's triple-overtime loss to Liberty. The Golden Eagles beefed up their offensive line through the transfer portal during the offseason and it appeared to pay immediate dividends as they gave up just one sack and ran for 252 yards as a team in the season-opener. While they were able to move the football, the question remains whether the Golden Eagles offense can score with any sort of consistency. They didn't find the end zone until nearly five minutes into the third quarter against Liberty. That was one of just two offensive touchdowns in the entire game, which included three overtime periods. Now they face a Miami squad that gave up just one touchdown last week and that came after the game was already well in hand midway through the second quarter (28-3 was the score at that time). Defensively, I'll give Southern Miss some credit. It didn't yield a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half against Liberty last week. While Miami poses a much more difficult challenge, I'm confident USM can at the very least keep the final score respectable, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Take the under (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and New Mexico at 9 pm et on Friday.

This total has already dropped from the opener and I believe the move is warranted. Boise State was stunned 34-17 on the road against Oregon State in its season-opener last Saturday. While most are expecting the Broncos to take out their frustrations on a hapless New Mexico squad on Friday (and that very well could happen), I'm not anticipating a shootout. The Broncos actually benched QB Hank Bachmeier after a shaky start against the Beavers last week. While this might look like an ideal bounce-back spot at first glance, Boise State can ill afford to overlook the Lobos, who are coming off a 41-0 rout of FCS squad Maine last week. While it's highly unlikely we see New Mexico hang another crooked number on the scoreboard, I'm confident its defense can hang. This is an experienced and talented group that got off to about as good of a start as you could hope for, holding Maine to just 118 total yards in the shutout victory. Boise State didn't even manage to score a point until a field goal nearly three minutes into the third quarter against Oregon State. It didn't find the end zone until the final three minutes of that third quarter, when the game was already all but out of reach. This isn't the same Boise State offensive juggernaut that we've seen in years' past. While their offense remains a question mark, I certainly expect a better performance from the Broncos defense this week. New Mexico did put up 41 points in its season-opening win but it was actually held scoreless through the first quarter and there weren't a whole lot of explosive plays. Kansas transfer QB Miles Kendrick threw for only 170 yards, the Lobos leading rusher tallied just 58 yards and their top receiver racked up only 54 yards. Maine simply couldn't get off the field defensively but we can anticipate a much different story playing out here, noting that Boise State shut out New Mexico in last year's meeting. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Louisville at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While it garnered little attention leading up to last week's season-opener, UCF looks like the real deal here in 2022. The Knights kicked off their campaign with a resounding 56-10 win over FCS squad South Carolina State. While the opposition in that game left a lot to be desired there was still a lot to like about the Knights performance. It took them less than a quarter to jump ahead by three touchdowns and while the offense was humming, I was equally impressed by the defense. UCF held South Carolina State out of the end zone until nearly midway through the third quarter and didn't yield another score after that. Now comes an admittedly tougher matchup against Louisville on Friday night at the Bounce House. The Cardinals are coming off a demoralizing season-opening loss at Syracuse and while it's extremely early you can't help but feel head coach Scott Satterfield's days as sideline chief could be numbered. Louisville couldn't muster any sort of offensive attack in that loss, scoring a touchdown with just over a minute remaining in the first quarter but then not coming up with a single score the rest of the way. I also didn't like the way the defense folded in the fourth quarter, allowing a pair of touchdowns when the game was still in reach. Noting that Louisville took last year's meeting between these two teams in Kentucky, I look for the revenge-minded Knights to get some payback here. Take Central Florida (10*).

My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I see Mississippi State as a program on the way up in the SEC, but one that isn't being talked about nearly enough. This is a very manageable opening week matchup against a Memphis squad that needs to replace too many key parts on both sides of the football.

Yes, Memphis will have Seth Henigan back at QB but you don't get better replacing the likes of WR Calvin Austin and TE Sean Dykes. The Tigers offense will likely be fine but it's going to take some time to ramp up and this is a nightmarish Week 1 road tilt.

Mississippi State returns the bulk of the talent that led to a promising season on defense a year ago. The potential is there for this group to be even better in 2022.

Of course, the Bulldogs offense is the real star of the show with Mike Leach getting this unit up to speed under the guidance of QB Will Rogers - who I consider to be one of the more underrated passers in the nation. The ground game may not be all that explosive but the potential is there to be better working behind an offensive line that returns the interior. I expect that o-line to bully a relatively green defensive front. Take Mississippi State (8*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Army plus the points over Coastal Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday.

It was a tremendous run for Coastal Carolina, going an incredible 14-2 over the last two seasons. Prior to that we saw three consecutive 2-6 campaigns from the Chanticleers as they made the adjustment to life in FBS. While they're unlikely to return to those depths again, there's simply too much turnover to instill much confidence entering the 2022 campaign. I see this as a tough opening week matchup against an experienced Army squad that will continue its ascension this year.

The Black Knights are no doubt still stinging from last December's loss to Navy but they responded with a huge Bowl victory over Missouri and now draw an opponent that will certainly have their full attention to start this season.

Army returns the majority of the offense that rolled through the opposition last year but I believe the defense could be the key. The Black Knights got torched through the air in 2021 but now the seondary returns a ton of experience and the performance of that unit could be the difference-maker between a good and a great 2022 season. The good news here is that Coastal Carolina is working in some new pieces at wide receiver after losing a ton of talent from last year's offense. While the experience at quarterback helps the Chanticleers cause with Grayson McCall back in the fold, his supporting cast might take some time to come around.

Coastal Carolina is forced to make wholesales changes to its linebacking corps this season and that hurts in a matchup like this. Look for Army's triple-option to get rolling and ultimately help the Black Knights pull away for a key road victory to open the season. Take Army (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and East Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday.

While this one is being priced as a potential shootout, I think we could be in for something closer resembling a slugfest.

N.C. State has high hopes entering the 2022 campaign and if you’ve followed this program over the years, you know that high expectations aren’t always a good thing in Raleigh.

While the offense does get standout QB Devin Leary back, his supporting cast needs some work. You don’t get better by losing an offensive line anchor like Ikem Ekwonu, who has moved on to greener pastures with the Carolina Panthers. This is also an offense that needs to have the ground game going to truly take off and the Wolfpack lose their top two running backs from a year ago.

Unlike the offense, the defense should be ready to rock right out of the gates. Only 13 teams in the entire country finished ahead of N.C. State in terms of points per game allowed last season. The potential is there to be even better this year with a ton of returning talent and experience across the board.

East Carolina carries a reputation of being an explosive offensive team that doesn’t play a lick of defense. That may have been true a number of years ago but isn’t necessarily the case anymore. Sure, the Pirates can score, but like N.C. State they’ll be working in plenty of new parts outside of QB Holton Ahlers. One thing is for sure, the Pirates want to run the football and will undoubtedly be looking to control the time of possession and effectively shorten this game to give themselves the best chance of staging an upset as a sizeable underdog against a nationally-ranked opponent on Saturday.

ECU hasn’t been able to hang its hat on its defense for years. That could change in 2022 though. Even without any semblance of a pass rush, the Pirates were able to hang around the middle of the pack in the AAC from a defensive standpoint last year. Now the experience and talent is there to take a big step forward. As I mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack aren’t exactly working with a full cupboard in terms of offensive talent, at least not at this early stage of the season, and I see this as a matchup the Pirates defense can handle in Week 1. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Friday.

It's not going to be easy for Virginia Tech to replace do-it-all QB Braxton Burmeister this season (he transferred to San Diego State). Not only that but the Hokies have a new offensive coordinator in Tyler Bowen who will look to jumpstart an offense that sputtered at the best of times last year.

Not only is Burmeister gone but so are the Hokies top two wide receivers from a year ago. While I do like former Temple standout Jadan Blue, he like new QB Grant Wells, will take some time to get acclimated with the new offense. To put it simply, there are just too many new parts to expect this offense to rock right out of the gates in 2022.

The good news is, the Hokies defense has a lot more returning faces to a group that was solid a year ago and has the potential to be special here in 2022. The secondary could be an early weakness but I'm not convinced Old Dominion will be able to take full advantage.

The Monarchs do have plenty of returnees on offense but this is still an ACC vs. Sun Belt matchup so don't count on an offensive explosion here in Week 1. ODU knows the path to an upset win here is controlling the tempo and controlling the clock and I think it can do that to some extent thanks in large part to four of five returning starters on the offensive line and a terrific backfield tandem in Blake Watson and Elijah Davis.

ODU's defense struggled against the pass a year ago, but again, I'm not sure the Hokies have the pieces in place to take advantage here in Week 1. This is without question an average Monarchs defense but it will benefit from matching up against a very average Hokies offense here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

It may surprise you to find out that Central Michigan finished 24th in the entire country in total offense last season. So perhaps it's understandable that we're dealing with a total just shy of 60 in this season-opener against Oklahoma State.

The issue for the Chips this year, as if often the case with these smaller schools, is roster turnover. Last year's standout WR Kalil Pimpleton is trying out for the Detroit Lions. The offensive line lost a pair of tackles to the NFL. There are going to be some growing pains early on but I do think the Chips can at the very least move the football consistently enough to keep the offense on the field for extended stretches, even in the face of a fierce defensive opponent in Oklahoma State. One thing is for sure, Central Michigan will have little interest in getting involved in a high-scoring shootout here in Week 1. The uglier the game, the better the chances of the Chips staging a massive upset.

Not unlike the offense, the CMU defense will be missing a number of key pieces from last year's group. It's not a surprising that a number of the Chips top defenders from a year ago were hot commodities in the transfer portal (and the NFL Draft) as this is a unit that ranked tops in the entire country in tackles for loss. Interestingly, the secondary was the weakness last year but could turn out to be a strength here in 2022. I don't anticipate the Chips defense trying to be too cute in this difficult matchup, instead look for a gameplan that will involve keeping everything in front of them in an effort to keep the Cowboys explosive offense in check.

Oklahoma State has had a tendency to get off to slow starts offensively in recent years, putting up 16 points in a win over Tulsa two years ago and 23 points in a victory over FCS squad Missouri State in last season's opener.

The return of QB Spencer Sanders will have most expecting the Cowboys offense to come storming out of the gate. I do think there were enough offseason losses to warrant some pause as far as expectations go, at least in Week 1. The Cowboys lose two starters on the offensive line including current Philadelphia Eagle Josh Sills. Top wide receiver Tay Martin is off to the NFL as well. That's not to mention the absence of standout RB duo Jaylen Warren and Dezmon Jackson.

No team registered more sacks last season than Oklahoma State and while there are a number of notable departures on defense, those returning and those shuffling in are exceptional. The return of Trace Ford from injury only adds to an already dominant pass rush. Let's keep it brief by saying there are just enough key pieces moving on to allow the Chips to at least have a hope of moving the chains and ultimately keeping the Oklahoma State offense off the field long enough to help keep this one 'under' the generous total, but don't expect any miracles from the CMU offense. Take the under (10*).

CFB Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and New Mexico State at 2 pm et on Saturday August 27th.

This total has been dropping since opening in the mid-to-high 50's but I believe we still have plenty of wiggle room at the current number. We actually cashed with the 'under' in New Mexico's season-opener last year and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here.

Nevada isn't the same team that lit it up under the leadership of dynamic duo QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs in recent years. Both have moved on with Doubs currently turning heads at Green Bay Packers training camp. Projected starting QB this year, Nate Cox was charged with a DUI earlier this summer, leaving his availability in question leading up to the season-opener. It's no sure thing that he'll even lock up the starting QB job, regardless of his legal trouble, even after he received some playing time during the regular season and started the Wolf Pack's Bowl game last year.

I would anticipate the Wolf Pack leaning heavily on their experienced 1-2 punch at running back, at least early in the campaign. Their defense should also be ahead of the offense in the early stages of the campaign, even though that unit loses plenty of talent from last year's team. It was a deep defense a year ago with plenty of experienced players ready to step in and take on bigger roles this year. DT Dom Peterson is an anchor up front while Michigan transfer at CB, Darion Warren-Green should lead the back-end.

New Mexico State is coming off another lost season in 2021 and the potential is there for this to be a down year as well, before the Aggies finally find a home in Conference-USA next season.

New Mexico State has another QB battle brewing in August but that's not necessarily a good thing as that only means that no one seems capable or ready to step up and take the reins. Expect NMSU to once again rely on pounding the football behind an offensive line that returns three starters from a year ago. New head coach Jerry Kill has a run-first mentality and with a questionable-at-best aerial attack, there's even more reason to keep the ball on the ground early this season.

The Aggies return eight starters from last year's defense. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for debate considering just how bad that unit was in 2021. I'm willing to be a little more optimistic than most as I like the pieces the Aggies have in place on the line and in the linebacking corps. The question is whether the secondary can hold up, but this is a favorable matchup against a rebuilding Nevada passing game that still isn't set on a starting QB, and whose best talent might be Arizona transfer WR B.J. Casteel who is learning a new offense and will have had precious few reps with whoever ends up the starter at QB. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday August 27th.

This has the potential to be one of the few shootouts on the board in Week 0 action.

Charlotte returns most of the key parts from last year's offense which showed flashes of brilliance over the course of the season. Of course, playing in C-USA where defense is optional, it helps to have some explosiveness on offense and the 49ers have just that with dual-threat returning QB Chris Reynolds and all three of his top receivers from last season in Victor Tucker, Grant DuBose and Elijah Spencer. The duo of Tucker and DuBose has the potential to be one of the best WR tandems in the conference.

The 49ers also boast two excellent running backs with Calvin Camp and Shadrick Byrd. The potential is there for more big gains out of the backfield running behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters from a year ago.

Defense was a problem for Charlotte last year and likely will be again in 2022. The 49ers get just one of their top four tacklers back from a year ago. This is a group that doesn't look all that bad on paper but there are no true standouts that can really knock the likes of a Florida Atlantic offense off course.

The Owls still have a bitter taste in their mouths after falling apart late last season, losing their final four games to miss out on Bowl eligibility. There's plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2022, however, as QB N'Kosi Perry comes back for a sixth season to lead an offense that's brimming with talent.

While Perry can sling it and has plenty of returnees to work with at the wide receiver position, I believe the Owls ground attack could be its strength early on. Watch out for RB Johnny Ford who broke off better than 6.0 yards per rush last year and will run behind an offensive line that figures to be much-improved with four returning starters.

I believe the FAU secondary could be an issue in the early going with standout CB Zyon Gilbert having moved on to the NFL. There will be plenty of green defensive backs left on an island for the Owls in this one and that doesn't bode well against the 49ers loaded WR corps that can blow the top off even the best of secondaries. Take the over (9*).

My selection is on the first half 'under' between Georgia and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring first half between these two teams in the SEC Championship Game, fueled by a mistake-laden, back-and-forth second quarter. It's worth noting that the first quarter in that game actually saw just three points scored. Both teams threw the football 40+ times in that contest, which eventually went Alabama's way by a 41-24 score. Chalk that up as an anomaly as I don't think either team wants to be up in the 40's in terms of pass attempts again here, noting that it hadn't happened in any of the previous 11 meetings in this series going all the way back to 1994. I certainly expect a cleaner performance from Georgia here, noting that prior to that SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs had given up a grand total of 29 points in the first half in their first 12 games this season (they allowed 24 points in the first half against Alabama). They would go on to give up only three first half points against Michigan in the Orange Bowl CFP semi-final. Of course, there's little reason to expect Alabama to get lit up defensively early in this game. There were certainly lessons to be learned from watching the Bulldogs race out to a 27-3 halftime lead against Michigan. This is the first time we've seen these two SEC combatants meet for a second time in the same season and I believe that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the first half under (10*).

CFB Bowl First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Ole Miss 'first half' minus the points over Baylor at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Baylor did what many didn't believe it could, upsetting Oklahoma State in a revenge game to capture the Big 12 Championship in early December. Here, I believe the Bears face a much different challenge but rather than lay the points with Ole Miss in the full game, we'll focus on the first half only. The Rebels should offer something of a 'shock to the system' for the Bears defense, which hasn't faced an offense like the one Ole Miss possesses in the Big 12. There were times when the Rebels offense didn't look quite as explosive or potent as most expected but a lot of that had to do with a number of key contributors being banged-up or sidelined entirely. With a full month off between games (the Rebels haven't played since Thanksgiving Night) Ole Miss should be 'all systems go' for this one with do-it-all QB Matt Corral somewhat surprisingly playing in this game instead of opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. I give Baylor all the credit in the world for winning the Big 12 title. We cashed a few tickets with the Bears over the course of the season and they could very well win this game as well as the Rebels do have the type of defense that will let opponents back in games. However, in the first half, I believe it will be Ole Miss that goes on the offensive (no pun intended) and gets plenty of licks in against a Bears defense you can throw on (we've seen a number of Baylor's opponents this season find success through the air). While Baylor has proven stout against the run, the Rebels offer a ground attack that can really disguise its looks and brings a different approach compared to what the Bears have seen, led by the dual-threat Corral. Also consider that if there's any team more built to play on the 'fast track' at the Superdome, it's the Rebels. Take Ole Miss first half (10*).

My selection is on Wake Forest 'first half' minus the points over Rutgers at 11 am et on Friday.

I'll lay the points in the first half only with the Demon Deacons on Friday as I believe they can provide a 'shock to the system' of sorts early on against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers didn't face many 'pass-first' teams over the course of the season. Wake Forest is likely to throw all over it on Friday, however. The Demon Deacons play fast and like to air it out, completing 20+ passes in each of their final seven games down the stretch. The issue with Wake Forest, however, is its defense and its tendency to let teams hang around and in many cases get back in the game after falling behind big. I can certainly see that situation unfolding again here, even with the limited nature of Rutgers' offense (the total sitting in the 60's is telling in my opinion). So instead we'll call for the Deacs' to jump ahead by double-digits early on and hold that lead through the first 30 minutes and not worry about what happens in the second half. Take Wake Forest 'first half' (8*).

This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday.

This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*).

CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Louisville at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen plenty of support for Louisville leading up to this game, flipping the line from the opener that saw Air Force as a short favorite. I don't agree with the move. The Falcons have done nothing but win under head coach Troy Calhoun - particularly since a disastrous 2-10 2013 season. This year, we saw Air Force navigate a tough Mountain West Conference schedule to go 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. I guess you could say Louisville's most impressive win came at home against Central Florida early in the season. There were also ugly lopsided losses against the likes of Ole Miss, N.C. State and Kentucky in the Cardinals regular season finale. Air Force closed out the regular season on a roll, winning three straight games and scoring 124 points in the process. I expect the Falcons to offer a real shock to the system to the Louisville defense here - a defense that struggled to stop the run at the best of times this season. The Cardinals can run as well, and will need to with a couple of key contributors at the wide receiver position transferring out of the program, but Air Force was stout against the run all season, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush against opponents that average 3.8 ypr. While few expect the Falcons to take to the air often in this game, I do think there will be opportunities for them to do so, noting that they did average 9.6 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season while Louisville was only average against the pass, giving up 7.0 yppa. Take Air Force (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Nevada at 11 am et on Monday.

The 'over' has been the best bet during Bowl season so far but I believe we'll see a different story unfold in Monday's Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Nevada will be missing the core of its team for this one with QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs among those sitting the game out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, not to mention half the coaching staff moving on with head coach Jay Norvell. While the Wolf Pack boasted a high-octane offense throughout the regular season, I wouldn't count on seeing that here. Western Michigan had a few standout performances over the course of the season but for the most part, its offense disappointed. Here, the Broncos will need to be cautious as they've had a tendency to turn the football over and Nevada has had a knack for forcing the same with 12 over its final five regular season games. Western Michigan has generally been a run-first team, topping out at 22 or less pass completions in all but one of its games this season (that coming in a stunning 44-41 upset win at Pitt back in September). I think we'll see both teams come out and look to control the time of possession in this one, ultimately working into our favor with a play on the 'under'. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Florida and Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday.

It seems that all anyone can remember when it comes to Florida - apart from its horrible play under then-head coach Dan Mullen - was the fact that it gave up 52 points against Samford back in November. Since then, the Gators have tightened things up, allowing 24 points against Missouri and 21 against Florida State. Here, they'll face a Central Florida squad that really only busted out offensively against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Temple and UConn - three of the worst defensive teams around. On a positive note, the Knights did hold five of their final six opponents to 17 points or less and I do think they can manage this matchup as well, noting that outside of that 70-point outburst against Samford, Florida was held to 24 points or less in four of its final five games. We're talking about two defenses that held opponents to 59.4% passing (Central Florida) and 57% passing (Florida) this season. Given the fact that both teams have been somewhat vulnerable against the run this season, I expect both offenses to focus on keeping it on the ground for stretches in this one and with a total in the mid-to-high 50's that has me firmly on the 'under'. Take the under (8*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday.

I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Wyoming at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes go from being favored by 3.5 points in the MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois to catching the same number of points against a Wyoming squad that has lost six of its last eight games. The common line of thinking here is that the Cowboys have the superior defense and will therefore be able to control proceedings in this contest. I'm not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, the best two offenses Wyoming faced this season were arguably Fresno State and Boise State and they lost those two games by a combined 40-13 score. Note that the Cowboys want to run the football on offense. In fact, they didn't complete more than 18 passes on a single occasion this season. The problem is the Golden Flashes are more than used to facing similar offenses. Five opponents ran the football 40+ times against them over the course of the season. They've allowed 4.7 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.4 ypr. The Flashes have faced an average of 41 rush attempts per game and Wyoming runs the football an average of, you guessed it, 41 times per game. Interestingly, Wyoming's run defense hasn't been a whole lot better, allowing 4.4 ypr against opponents that average 4.1 ypr. It's the Cowboys pass defense that has been a difference-maker, but here I'm willing to bet on the talent of the Golden Flashes aerial attack led by QB Dustin Crum. Kent State head coach Sean Lewis has come on and turned the program around. The Flashes went 2-10 in his first season in 2018 but have posted three consecutive winning seasons since, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (the program's first ever Bowl victory). Take Kent State (8*).

My selection is on Tulsa minus the points over Old Dominion at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

I believe there's a talent gap that isn't being properly reflected in this line. Tulsa had high hopes this season but a very difficult schedule ended up contributing to a 6-6 campaign. After a bitter two-point defeat in last year's Armed Forces Bowl you can be sure the Golden Hurricane's wealth of returning talent will be up for this game - even if it is 'only' the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Old Dominion reached this game thanks to reeling off five straight wins to close out the regular season. Of course, those wins came against a weak slate of opponents - the toughest being Middle Tennessee State, which the Monarchs upset as a three-point underdog. While Tulsa QB Davis Brin struggled for the most part this season, I'm not sure this is his game to win. Instead I look for the Golden Hurricane to lean heavily on their excellent ground attack led by RB Sharmari Brooks, along with their experienced defense which will be looking to make a statement after not quite living up to expectations over the course of the season. Underdogs have ruled Bowl season so far, but I look for Tulsa to reverse that trend on Monday. Take Tulsa (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette at 9:15 pm et on Saturday.

There always seems to be a tendency for bettors to look to play the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl with the game being played on the 'fast track' at the Superdome annually. It's worth noting, however, that five of the last New Orleans Bowls have totaled 48 points or less. Here, I'm anticipating another 'under' result. Marshall actually posted two of its three lowest scoring totals of the season in two of its last three games. The Thundering Herd have more of a 'pass-first' offense but could run into trouble here given Louisiana-Lafayette has allowed just two opponents to complete 20+ passes this season and in those two teams they still gave up only 24 and 21 points. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a 'run-first' mentality and enter this game with a number of key cogs on offense banged up or sidelined altogether due to injury. You would have to go back to October 30th to find the last time they completed more than 19 passes. They did so only three times all season and two of those performances came in the first three weeks of the season. Marshall is by no means a defensive juggernaut but did hold opponents to 54% pass completions and just 6.2 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Upset wins over USC, Utah and Arizona State have had plenty of bettors high on the Oregon State Beavers this season. What I see, however, is a team that had a rather uneven season and lopsided victories were few and far between over the last two months of the campaign. The Beavers did beat Stanford by 21 and aforementioned Arizona State by 14 in November but they did so by holding those two teams to 14 and 10 points, respectively and both wins came at home. I would certainly expect Utah State to score far more than that here, and I'm confident the upstart Aggies can stay inside what I consider to be an inflated pointspread. Utah State has gone a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, capping it off with a Mountain West Conference championship in a decisive win over San Diego State. I absolutely love the Aggies senior class and fully expect them to go out on a high note here. First-year head coach Blake Anderson was involved in a swirl of controversy this week when a recording of his comments regarding sexual assault victims (from an address to his team at Fall camp) came out earlier this week. If anything I would expect that controversy to perhaps galvanize this team even more heading into Saturday's game. Take Utah State (9*).

Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois at 6 pm et on Friday.

I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks between these two teams on Friday. Northern Illinois could be in for a shock to the system here as few opponents have elected to attack them through the air with any consistency this season but Coastal Carolina will with standout QB Grayson McCall looking to show off his talents in front of both NFL scouts and perhaps other schools as well as it sounds like he may be back for a final year of college but is likely to transfer from CCU. When the Huskies did face pass-first offenses this season they gave up 20 points against Eastern Michigan, 26 points against Bowling Green and 38 points against Central Michigan - all three boasting far weaker aerial attacks than the one they'll face on Friday. On the flip side, the Chanticleers are going to face a much different challenge than they're used to here as well, noting that Northern Illinois will pound the football on the ground and has had a ton of success doing so. Coastal Carolina gave up 25 points against Buffalo, 30 points against Appalachian State and 42 points against Georgia State in three previous games where the opposition ran the football 40+ times this season - as NIU is likely to do on Friday. Note that the Huskies enter this game having scored 34, 39, 47, 30, 33, 21 and 41 points in their last seven games. The 21-point performance came in a game against Western Michigan where they played their backups with a spot in the MAC Championship Game already clinched. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Much has been made of the long 'under' streak in this series, which quite literally goes back nearly two decades. The oddsmakers have obviously made their adjustments, shifting the total all the way down to the mid-30's for this year's matchup. I'm still not sure it's enough. Note that the last two times we've seen totals posted in the 30's in this rivalry, the final score has reached just 27 (2018) and 15 points (2020). Navy checks in having averaged a woeful 4.3 points in its last six non-conference games. Army, meanwhile, has averaged just 17 points the last 60 times it has come off a bye week, as is the case here. We're certainly not going to see much passing in this contest. Both teams know their strength lies in pounding away with their triple-option based offenses. Note that Navy completed just 25-of-55 (45%) of its passes in games where it attempted more than eight passes this season. In games where Army attempted more than six passes it completed only 25-of-53 (47%) of its passes. While both defenses were exposed by the better passing offenses they faced over the course of the regular season, they both excelled against the run with Navy limiting opponents that average 4.6 yards per rush to just 4.1 ypr and Army holding opponents that average 4.3 ypr to only 3.7 ypr. No reason to re-invent the wheel here. While this total may appear very low, I believe it might actually look pretty steep by the time halftime rolls around on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Montana plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Friday.

I'll take a shot with the underdog Grizzlies on Friday night as they travel to Virginia to challenge James Madison. Montana sports the number-five rank in FCS while James Madison is number-two. Montana hasn't lost a game since October 16th at the hands of Sacramento State. Its only other defeat this season came against Eastern Washington back on October 2nd - a loss it avenged in the playoffs last week as it prevailed 57-41 in the rematch. While the Grizzlies offense has been lighting it up, I believe its defense can hang in this one as well. It will certainly be challenged against a Dukes squad that has put up 50+ points in three of its last four games. While JMU does sport the higher overall ranking, it has only faced three top-25 ranked FCS squads during its current seven-game winning streak and none of those opponents were ranked higher than 18th. The Dukes did defeat Weber State, which was at the time ranked number-nine, back in mid-September but the Wildcats didn't turn out to be nearly as good as most expected, losing five games and failing to reach the playoffs. The Dukes are certainly tough at home but not unbeatable as they fell against Villanova on this field back in October. I simply feel this battle-tested Montana squad (last two opponents have been number-three and number-four ranked teams in FCS) can give JMU a difficult test on Friday night and we're being given more than a touchdown to work with (at the time of writing). Take Montana (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*).

My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I'm a believer in this Houston team and think it can finally give Cincinnati a run after dropping the last two matchups in this series in blowout fashion. The Bearcats are the hunted at this point as they try to hold on to their undefeated record and potentially earn a coveted CFP spot. The blowout win over SMU two weeks ago was impressive to say the least, but we know that the Bearcats aren't invincible. We saw it in a narrow win over Tulsa. We saw it in an eventual lopsided result at Tulane. Even last week, the Bearcats didn't look overly impressive in disposing of East Carolina by a 35-13 score as they turned the ball over three times, ran for less than four yards per rush and completed only 17 passes. Houston, meanwhile, has gone undefeated since opening the season with a tough loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have demolished the majority of their opponents and it hasn't seemed to matter where they play, they've brought their 'A' game. I'm not sure that the Cincinnati defense has been quite as good as advertised with all of its talent and experience this season and I think Houston can find some success offensively in this one. The Bearcats likely once again get into the 30's, just as they have in the last two matchups between these teams, but this time the Cougars keep pace. Take Houston (7*).

My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Alabama at 4 pm et on Saturday.

There's a lot of talk about whether Alabama will get into the CFP by taking Georgia down to the wire, or perhaps even to overtime in Saturday's SEC Championship Game. I don't think we'll have to worry about that conversation as I expect the Bulldogs to win this one going away. It's not often we see Georgia favored in this series. In fact this is the first time it has been since back in 2015 when it was a -1.5-point favorite and lost by four touchdowns. I expect this game to play our much differently, however. The fact that Alabama needed overtime to get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl last Saturday was no fluke. The Crimson Tide just aren't the same juggernaut this season that we've been accustomed to seeing over the years. It happens. Not often, but it happens. Meanwhile, Georgia hasn't received nearly as much press as 'Bama (in my opinion anyway) but it continues to churn along, fresh off a 45-0 no-sweat rout of in-state rival Georgia Tech last Saturday. In fact, the Bulldogs really haven't had to break a sweat since pulling out a 10-3 win over Clemson way back in Week 1. Some would say that Alabama is more battle-tested. When it comes to college football though, I'll take the fresher team when the talent is virtually equal. Take Georgia (9*).

CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Utah State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Utah State in last week's rout of New Mexico State while also cashing the 'under' in San Diego State's victory over Boise State. Here, I won't hesitate to lay the points with the Aztecs as I believe they match up well against Utah State's high-powered offensive attack. Yes, the Aggies can score. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Carson Strong. I think they're going to be overmatched against an elite San Diego State defense here. After falling behind early we saw the Aztecs defense absolutely manhandle a good Boise State offense last Friday. Only Nevada has managed to throw on San Diego State this season and in that game the Wolfpack completely abandoned their ground game, running the ball only 15 times for a grand total of eight positive yards. The Aggies will look to run it a little bit but will likely run into a brick wall given the Aztecs have allowed just 2.6 yards per rush this season. Keep in mind, Utah State was held to only 17 points in a blowout loss against a quality Wyoming defense just two games back. Utah State hasn't fared well as an underdog in this series. In fact, the last three times it has been in that position it has lost by 31 (2020), 27 (2016) and 34 (2010) points. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We lost with Baylor in the first matchup between these two teams this season in a game that the Bears really had no business even sniffing out a cover in. The reality was, the Bears came within one stop (or one more first down by the Cowboys) of covering the pointspread in an eventual 10-point loss in Stillwater. Here, I don't expect things to be even that close. The Baylor defense was better positioned to go toe-to-toe in a slugfest with the Cowboys on that night. Now we find the Bears coming off a number of tight, hard-fought affairs and I can't help but think we might see them finally give in should they fall behind on Saturday. Oklahoma State has ravaged the majority of its recent opponents, up until Bedlam against rival Oklahoma last Saturday anyway. The Cowboys still ultimately prevailed in that rivalry showdown and I look for them to build off that performance and take another big step toward legitimate respectability on Saturday. Yes, they've earned plenty of respect this season, but not at the same level as some of the other power programs, despite their impressive play. Note that while the last matchup in this series was relatively close, the one before that went the Cowboys way by 39 points last December. Take Oklahoma State (9*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won with Utah in the first matchup between these two teams two weeks ago but in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game I'll go the other way and back the Ducks after we cashed with them in last week's win over rival Oregon State. Everything went wrong for Oregon in that aforementioned first meeting. The Ducks simply couldn't get anything going on offense and once they fell behind by a considerable margin they were forced to abandon their gameplan entirely. It's not as if the Utah offense accomplished much in that game though. The Utes ran for right around 4.0 yards per rush and completed only 10 passes. Here, we'll note that all three of Utah's losses this season came away from home. I don't think this is a team necessarily built for the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Yes, Oregon also suffered both of its losses on the road this season. However, it also notched a win over National Championship contender Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. We haven't seen either team take consecutive wins in this series since the Ducks won in 2016 and 2017. Back-to-back wins for the Utes haven't come since they strung together consecutive victories over the Ducks between 1991 and 1994. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday.

Western Kentucky might be the best team no one is paying attention to as we head into Conference Championship weekend. The Hilltoppers haven't lost since dropping a 52-46 decision against the same UTSA squad they'll face in Friday's C-USA Championship Game - reeling off seven straight wins while going 6-1 ATS in the process. That earlier showdown with the Roadrunners came at a tough time for the Hilltoppers as they were beaten down following three consecutive games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State. Needless to say, the Hilltoppers will be looking for an ounce of revenge in this one. The Roadrunners have received far more press this season thanks to their flawless 11-0 record before falling by 22 points on the road against North Texas last week. You could argue that was a 'meaningless' game so it was no surprise UTSA lost. However, if it was meaningless, why were QB Frank Harris and RB Sincere McCormick on the field? The Roadrunners enter this contest having dropped the cash in three straight games. While their passing game was efficient early in the season, that hasn't been the case down the stretch as they've completed just 102-of-171 (59.6%) of their passes over the last six games. With a total sitting in the low-70's this game obviously has high shootout potential and in that situation, I favor the Hilltoppers and their electric offense that has moved the ball at will through the air all season long. Interestingly, the Roadrunners haven't really faced any offenses of the sort since running into the Hilltoppers earlier this season (note that WKU racked up over 500 passing yards in that wild 52-46 loss). The Hilltoppers were favored by 3.5 points in the first matchup this season. I actually think they're in an even better spot here as the perfect conditions inside the Alamodome favor their explosive offense. Take Western Kentucky (9*).

FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday.

This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and LSU at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not expecting much of the way of offensive fireworks in this SEC showdown on Saturday night. Texas A&M will be looking for a soft landing as it wraps up the regular season with this winnable road game against LSU. I'm not convinced we're going to see the Aggies take a ton of chances on offense in this one, knowing that they likely won't need to score much to prevail. Keep in mind, LSU ended a string of three straight games scoring 17 or less points by putting up just 27 against lowly Louisiana-Monroe last week. If the Tigers are going to stay competitive in this game they're going to have to play tough defense and we know they're capable of that. LSU held mighty Alabama to only 20 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. We've certainly seen the Tigers play their best defensive football down the stretch, giving up just 50 points combined over their last three games. The 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series with the two teams taking turns scoring just seven points in road losses. Take the under (7*).

CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won by fading Oregon in its blowout loss on the road against Utah last week. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Ducks as they host the 'Civil War' against rival Oregon State on Saturday. The Ducks have been dealt blow after blow in terms of injuries this season but they've persevered and check into this regular season finale sporting a 9-2 record. While most are down on the Ducks after last week's ugly performance, we're being afforded a short pointspread in my opinion. Oregon State is 'fat and happy' off consecutive home wins to become Bowl eligible. The Beavers certainly want to run the football but here they're facing an Oregon squad that allows just 3.5 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush. Oregon State has only posted more than 19 pass completions once in its last nine games and that came against lowly Colorado. Note that Oregon has held its last three opponents to just 45-of-81 (56%) passing for 569 yards. Take Oregon (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Wyoming at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last week. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in Laramie, however. Keep in mind, this has been a low-scoring matchup in recent years with the last two meetings producing just 30 and 38 points. While Hawaii did hang 50 points on Colorado State last week, consistency simply hasn't been there for the Rainbow Warriors offense this season. Case in point, two weeks ago they were held to just 13 points in a two-touchdown loss at UNLV. Here, the Warriors will be up against a tough Wyoming defense that has allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.1 yppa. The Cowboys haven't been quite as tough against the run but the Warriors simply don't have the horses to expose that weakness. Wyoming delivered a 44-17 win over Utah State last week - a somewhat stunning result as it was a 5.5-point underdog heading in. Performances like that have been few and far between for a team that likes to run the football and let its defense take care of the rest. Note that the Cowboys have attempted just 49 passes combined in their last three games. The 'under' checks in 18-4 the last 22 times Wyoming has come off a game that totaled 60+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-7 in Hawaii's last 26 games following a conference win by seven points or less. Take the under (8*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

Duke's season mercifully comes to an end on Saturday as it hosts Miami in yet another unfavorable spot. The Blue Devils season has been circling the drain for weeks - months really. They enter this contest having dropped the cash in five straight games and have been absolutely throttled by opposing offenses, allowing 45 points or more in all five of those ATS losses. While they have managed to score 29, 17 and 22 points over their last three games, there's little reason for optimism here. Note that in last week's 62-22 rout at the hands of Louisville they attempted a whopping 50 passes but gained only 275 yards through the air. Duke's ground attack has churned out plenty of yardage but it's been volume-based. Miami's defensive weakness this season has been against the pass but much of the damage was done in just two games - against Alabama and Pittsburgh. I don't need to tell you that Duke isn't Alabama or Pitt. When these two teams met last season Miami rolled to a 48-0 victory. We're dealing with a higher pointspread this time around but I believe the move is warranted. The Hurricanes have caught a spark down the stretch and can improve their Bowl standing with a victory here. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over North Carolina State at 7 pm et on Friday.

You can be sure the Tar Heels would like nothing more than to spoil the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game with a victory here on Friday night. It's been a largely disappointing season for North Carolina but all is certainly not lost. The Tar Heels will still be going Bowling and can perhaps improve their standing in that regard with a win over in-state rival N.C. State here. This matchup has actually been no contest in the last two meetings with North Carolina rolling to a 41-10 road win two years ago before delivering a 48-21 victory in Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels were double-digit favorites in both of those games and have to feel at least a little bit disrespected as nearly touchdown underdogs in this one. Yes, QB Sam Howell is banged-up with an apparent injury to his non-throwing shoulder but he was held out of last week's game as a precaution and is expected to play on Friday night. The real star of the Tar Heels show has become their ground game anyway. They're churning out 212 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season. Of course their aerial attack remains a real factor, averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game on 8.9 yards per pass attempt. While N.C. State enters this game 'fat and happy' off a 41-17 drubbing of Syracuse and sporting a perfect 6-0 home record this season, North Carolina has yet to taste victory away from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels couldn't have gotten off to much worse of a start on the road against Pittsburgh two games back but in spite of that still managed to force overtime in an eventual 30-23 loss. They also gave an outstanding Notre Dame squad a run in a 44-34 loss in South Bend back on October 30th. My point is, as bad as things have gone for UNC at times this season, there have been some positives and I don't expect them to go away quietly on Friday night. Take North Carolina (8*).

C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 1 pm et on Friday.

I think we would be dealing with a considerably higher pointspread here were it not for the egg laid by Utah State in last week's game in Wyoming. The Aggies actually still have a slim chance at winning their division and earning a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but only if they win here on Friday. The timing of this game is key. For the Aggies to steal a division title they'll need both Boise State and Air Force to lose. Boise's game starts just an hour earlier and it's a tough one against San Diego State. Air Force doesn't kick off until later in the afternoon. Expect the Aggies to show up for this one and that might be all they have to do against a New Mexico squad whose season has been circling the drain for months really. The Lobos offense is as lifeless as it gets. They've scored a grand total of 24 points over their last three games and were shut out by Boise State last week. You would assume their defense would show up here in the season finale but this is certainly a tough matchup against an explosive Utah State offense that will be determined to erase the memory of last week's debacle against Wyoming. Take Utah State (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and San Diego State at 12 noon et on Friday.

This may appear to be a low total at first glance but numbers like this have been commonplace in games involving San Diego State this season. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the Aztecs last seven games overall. As for Boise State, each of its last six contests have stayed 'under' the total. Both teams like to run the football. Both teams are capable of playing exceptional defense. The Broncos and Aztecs haven't met since 2018 but the last time they did they combined to score just 32 points. Look for more of the same in this very early start at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California on Friday morning. Take the under (10*).

SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*).

Take Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I believe the Broncos are favored for a reason in this one, despite the fact that they've dropped the cash in four straight games and face a Northern Illinois squad that is headed to the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester is doing the right thing, pointing to the fact that the Broncos haven't won a game here in Dekalb since way back in 2007. Despite the fact that Northern Illinois owns the better overall record and as I mentioned is bound for the conference title game in Detroit next week, I believe Western Michigan may actually be the better team. Keep in mind, the Broncos have a road win over Pitt to their credit this season. I think they may have been caught looking ahead to this matchup when they coughed up a 14-0 lead on the road against Eastern Michigan last week. Here, we'll note that the Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games following three consecutive ATS losses. Take Western Michigan (6*).

CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*).

My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon has CFP aspirations thanks to a 9-1 record and a marquee road win over Ohio State but I expect its playoff hopes to be dashed against the Utes on Saturday night. Utah has gone undefeated at home this season and I'm confident that flawless home record will remain unblemished when it's all said and done on Saturday. The Ducks caught lightning in a bottle in that early season win over the Buckeyes. Line those two teams up again now and I'm confident we would see Ohio State prevail in convincing fashion. Utah has faced a tougher Pac-12 slate in my opinion with its lone conference loss coming on the road against Oregon State. Since that defeat it has gone a perfect 3-0, scoring a whopping 134 points in the process. The Utes aren't likely to get bullied at the line of scrimmage the way Oregon's recent opponent have. Keep in mind, the Ducks are taking a step up in class after facing Colorado, Washington and Washington State over their last three games. I think we'll see the Utes force the Ducks to throw the football more than they would like in this contest, noting that Oregon has completed 17 or fewer passes in six of its 10 games this season while Utah has limited opponents that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt to just 6.4 yppa this season. Take Utah (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana-Lafayette and Liberty at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I believe this game could turn out to be one of the most entertaining on Saturday's entire college football board as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to face the Liberty Flames. Louisiana-Lafayette has actually been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season but as a result, we've seen the books over-adjust and now we're starting to see value shifting the other way, noting that last week's game sailed 'over' the total by eight points. While the Ragin' Cajuns do like to run the football, I see this as a smash spot for them through the air as Liberty simply hasn't faced many strong passing attacks this season. In the Flames most recent game they couldn't do anything to stop Ole Miss through the air as the Rebels completed 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards in an ultra-efficient, yet not overly high-scoring 27-14 victory. Of course, if the Ragin' Cajuns choose to pound away on the ground they should have success as well, noting that Liberty has been torched (no pun intended) for nearly 800 rushing yards over its last four games alone. On the flip side, the Flames are certainly a better offensive team than they showed against Ole Miss two weeks ago. This is a team that put up a whopping 202 points over its previous five contests before the loss to the Rebels. While Louisiana-Lafayette's defense looks good statistically, it has also faced a littany of weak offensive squads in recent weeks. When these two teams last met two years ago it was no contest as Louisana-Lafayette rolled to a 35-14 win. The Ragin' Cajuns were two-touchdown favorites in that game. The talent gap has certainly narrowed since then, and I fully expect to see Liberty get in on the act here as well. Take the over (9*).

My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

No one is expecting Georgia Tech to put up much of a fight in this game as it checks in off four consecutive losses - its Bowl hopes dashed following last week's home defeat at the hands of Boston College. With a likely beating at the hands of in-state rival Georgia on deck next week, this essentially becomes the Yellow Jackets Bowl game, in front of a national audience in South Bend as they look to play spoiler against an Irish squad that has CFP aspirations. While the season hasn't exactly gone as the Yellow Jackets would have hoped, save for a blowout loss against Pitt in early October they've been in virtually every game. The Pitt loss marks their only defeat by more than 11 points this season. Notre Dame has rolled past its last two opponents but easy wins have been few and far between in South Bend this season. The Irish defeated Toledo by three, Purdue by 14, lost to Cincinnati, USC by 15 and North Carolina by 10. You get the picture. I simply feel the Irish are being asked to lay too many points in this matchup against a Georgia Tech squad that is capable of putting up plenty of points on offense and isn't as bad as it looked last week on defense. Here, we'll note that the Irish are a woeful 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, outscoring opponents by just 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Georgia Tech (9*).

CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday.

San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*).

MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*).

CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

With both of these teams performing horribly on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, this play really comes down to which team I think can bounce back in that regard on Tuesday night. As far as I'm concerned, it's Western Michigan that boasts the far more talented defense, while also possessing an offense that is better than it showed (which is saying something) in last week's closer-than-expected 45-40 over lowly Akron. Note that Western Michigan had absolutely dominated this series prior to the last two years in which Eastern Michigan staged upset wins as nine and 13.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, the Broncos will be out for revenge here, while also trying to keep their faint hopes of a MAC West title alive. They're currently sitting in a tie for last place but only two games back of division-leading Northern Illinois, which they will face in next week's regular season finale. Its chances are slim to be sure, but expect the Broncos to put forth a strong effort regardless. Keep in mind, while EMU was beating up on the likes of UMass and Texas State (among others) during its non-conference slate, WMU went toe-to-toe with Michigan, Pittsburgh and San Jose State, even staging an outright upset of Pitt, on the road no less. In other words, these two teams may have identical overall records, but I certainly consider the Broncos to be the superior team, initially a consensus pick to finish second in the MAC West. Likely headed to a Bowl game and with the aforementioned faint hope of reaching the MAC title game, everything is technically still in front of WMU. EMU still has plenty to play for but doesn't really control its own destiny with its regular season finale coming against Central Michigan next week. Take Western Michigan (8*).

My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We went against Southern Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided North Texas victory as the Mean Green Eagles easily covered the short pointspread. Here, we're dealing with a much larger spread, but also a much bigger mismatch. Southern Miss' season is circling the drain and has been for the last two months. The Golden Eagles have lost seven straight games both SU and ATS. Their lone victory this season came against FCS opponent Grambling in a game they were favored by more than three touchdowns. UTSA is enjoying a dream season, reeling off nine straight victories while going 8-1 ATS along the way. The Roadrunners have been explosive on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass attempt while also dominating the conference defensively, giving up just 2.7 yards per rush. They have been somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt but Southern Miss is unlikely to take advantage, noting that the Eagles have 41-of-82 (50%) of their passes for only 332 yards over their last three games and that stretch included a pair of weak defensive teams in Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. I see this as an ideal spot to fade Southern Miss once again as it comes off a rare game where it didn't turn the football over. On the flip side, UTSA didn't force a single turnover in last week's rout of UTEP after forcing at least two in each of its previous six contests. Take UTSA (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between East Carolina and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The 'under' has cashed in each of East Carolina's last four games and each of Memphis' last three contests entering Saturday's matchup between these two AAC squads. I expect a different story to unfold here as this contest has serious shootout potential. East Carolina has benefited from playing from ahead in the last couple of weeks, rolling to lopsided wins over South Florida and Temple. I'm not sure the Pirates will be so fortunate here and fully expect them to be bombing away for much of the afternoon. Game script has allowed the Memphis defense to hold up just fine in recent weeks but I still consider that unit to be among the weakest in the conference, perhaps even the country. Keep in mind, this is the same Tigers squad that gave up 50 points against Arkansas State and 34 points against Temple earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis offense has been held down by Central Florida and SMU over the last two contests but should bust loose here, noting that East Carolina has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass play on the road this season. Take the over (10*).

CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday.

Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*).

CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*).

My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

We haven't been involved with a side in any Kent State game since back in late September when we faded the Golden Flashes in a road game against Maryland. The Terps rolled to a three-touchdown win on that day. That wrapped up a tough two-game trip that saw the Flashes face Iowa as well. Since taking their lumps in those two blowout losses, we've seen the Flashes take off, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in MAC play. I look for them to improve on those records here. Central Michigan is in an ideal fade spot coming off a big upset win on the road against Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas were buoyed by a pair of punt return touchdowns from do-it-all WR Khalil Pimpleton after falling behind by two touchdowns early on. I'm more confident in Kent State's ability to keep its foot on the gas should it build a lead in this one. It's hard not to like what head coach Sean Lewis has done with the Flashes since taking over three years ago. Since going 2-10 in his first season, Kent State has now gone 15-11 SU over its last 26 games, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (no Bowl eligibility last year as Kent State played only four games due to Covid). With a win here the Flashes can become Bowl eligible once again. Note that Kent State is as healthy as any team in the country right now and I'm confident we'll see it step up in this big conference road tilt on Wednesday, noting that home field advantage has meant little in this series going way back over the years with the road team winning five of the last seven meetings. Take Kent State (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I love the way this one sets up for a disappointing Western Michigan squad as it looks to bounce back from a tough home loss against Central Michigan and earn Bowl eligibility in the process. While the season hasn't gone quite as planned for the Broncos, there's no reason to hang their heads here. They quite simply ran into arguably the MAC's best player in Khalil Pimpleton last week as he went off and single-handedly took over the game, scoring three touchdowns including two on punt returns after the Broncos had built an early 14-0 lead. Here, Western Michigan is in a perfect bounce-back spot against a hapless Akron squad that it handled by a 58-13 score, on the road no less, last season. The Zips are coming off a hard-fought six point home loss against Ball State last week. They turned in a near-perfect offensive performance, by their standards anyway, but still couldn't get it done. Keep in mind, they entered the fourth quarter down by 18 points in that contest and it certainly seemed like Ball State got complacent. I don't expect the Broncos to fall into the same trap here as they'll be looking to take out their frustrations on both side of the football and should have little difficulty doing just that. This is a Western Michigan team that is only a couple of games removed from a 64-31 rout of Kent State. It also went on the road and won at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Akron, meanwhile, has a lopsided 21-point loss to an awful Temple team on its resume this season and has given up a whopping 110 points in its last three games despite facing limited offenses in Miami-Ohio, Buffalo and Ball State. Take Western Michigan (10*).

CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulane at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Tulane got up for last Saturday's nationally-televised home game against then second-ranked Cincinnati, giving the Bearcats all they could handle in an eventual 31-12 loss. Now things get tougher as the reeling Green Wave, having not won a game since Week 2 against FCS squad Morgan State, hit the road to face a surging Central Florida team. The Golden Knights had their doors blown off by aforementioned Cincinnati on the road back on October 16th. Since then, they've bounced back with blowout wins of their own over Memphis and Temple, outscoring those two opponents by a combined 73-14 margin. I like them to keep rolling here as they look to assure themselves of Bowl eligibility with a win. Lost in the relatively competitive nature of last week's setback against Cincinnati was the fact that Tulane completed only nine passes. The Green Wave have now completed a grand total of 20 passes over their last two games. That's just not going to cut it against a Golden Knights squad that is brimming with confidence right now. Take Central Florida (8*).

C-USA Game of the Month. My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Southern Miss at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Southern Miss has scored fewer than 20 points in all seven games against FBS opposition this season (it defeated Grambling 37-0 in its other game). Needless to say the Golden Eagles are simply playing out the string at this point. Meanwhile, North Texas kept its slim hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive with an 'upset' road win over Rice last week. Now it has an excellent opportunity to build some positive momentum, and earn an ounce of revenge after dropping its last two meetings with Southern Miss. The Mean Green Eagles have faced a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a cupcake matchup against FCS squad Northwestern State they went on to play SMU, UAB, Louisiana Tech, Missouri, Marshall, Liberty and Rice. Yes, there were a couple of soft opponents in that bunch but the majority were tough. Credit UNT for going 5-3 ATS through its first eight games, including a 4-1 ATS mark over its last four contests. I mentioned just how punchless Southern Miss has been offensively this season. North Texas is a different story as it has scored at least 21 points in each of its last four games. The Golden Eagles haven't come particularly close to even sniffing out an ATS cover since losing by 12 points (in a game they scored only nine points) as an 11-point underdog against Troy back on September 18th. Take North Texas (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas State minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Texas State found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time last week as it was blown out 45-0 on the road against Louisiana-Lafayette. Here, the Bobcats have a prime opportunity to 'get right' at home against a Louisiana-Monroe squad that is 'punching above its weight class' at 4-4 on the season. The Warhawks have stunningly won a pair of games outright as 20+ point underdogs this season. I think the bloom is off the rose now, however, following last week's 31-point drubbing at the hands of Appalachian State. Now they have to stay on the road for a second straight week to face a Texas State squad that believe it or not still has an outside shot at reaching Bowl eligibility (if it wins out). Of course, winning out is highly-unlikely with a date at Coastal Carolina still on the schedule. That's in a couple of weeks though. Here, I look for the Bobcats to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks after stepping up in class and dropping back-to-back double-digit losses against Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Keep in mind, Texas State has taken Baylor down to the wire while also defeating South Alabama here at home this season. Prior to their last two games, the Bobcats had scored 20+ points in each of their last six games. They've at least played with a little more consistency than Louisiana-Monroe, which has been on a wild, roller-coaster ride all season. Note that Texas State took last year's meeting between these two teams by 21 points, on the road no less. They say revenge is a dish best served at home. I don't see the Warhawks getting that revenge in hostile territory on Saturday. Take Texas State (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This line has moved considerably over the course of the week, leaving Ole Miss in playable range as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Give Liberty credit. It has played the schedule in front of it and has done it well, winning seven of nine games to date. But let's also keep things in perspective. The Flames seven wins this season include victories against FCS squad Campbell and three of the weakest teams in FBS in Old Dominion, Louisiana-Monroe and UMass, with two of those contests coming at home. Ole Miss, meanwhile, opened the season with a tough non-conference matchup against Louisville (it won 43-24) and after a couple of non-conference cupcakes, the Rebels have faced a brutal SEC schedule that included games against Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn. It enters this game off a tough but not unexpected 31-20 road loss against Auburn last week. To me, this looks like an ideal 'get right' spot for Ole Miss before it gets back to the SEC gauntlet with a home date with Texas A&M next week. The fact that the Flames are a seven-win team and scored a whopping 62 points in last week's victory should help keep the Rebels focus where it needs to be this week and I expect them to win this one going away. Take Ole Miss (9*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last season as Western Michigan prevailed by a 52-44 score. Keep in mind, prior to that you would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time the two teams combined to put up more than 63 points. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this time around as both teams enter this pivotal MAC showdown sporting identical 2-2 conference records. Western Michigan is known for its offense and while it is capable of putting up points in bunches, it has also been prone to scoring lapses this season, as noted by the fact that it has been held to 24 points or less in four of its last five games. The lone explosion over that stretch came in a 64-31 rout of a Kent State squad that doesn't play a lick of defense and operates at a break-neck pace on offense. I'm higher on the Western Michigan defense than some. This is a talented and experienced group that went into the Big House in Ann Arbor and didn't allow a touchdown against Michigan until nearly six minutes into the second quarter way back in Week 1. The Wolverines ultimately did get rolling in that game but it was evident that the Broncos weren't going to be pushovers defensively. Led by DL Ali Fayad, the Broncos defense should be able to pose plenty of problems for a less-than-stellar Central Michigan offensive line in this one. The Chippewas are coming off a 39-38 loss to Northern Illinois last time out. Combine that with their high-scoring loss to the Broncos in last year's meeting and you can understand why they wouldn't necessarily want to get involved in another shootout here. The Chippewas started the season with Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon at quarterback but he's since been replaced by Daniel Richardson. Richardson, while experienced running the offense, hasn't been all that dynamic, completing just over 58% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He has posted an impressive 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio but again, I expect him to be under duress for much of tonight's game. Look for the Chips' to make a concerted effort to churn out long drives in this one and effectively shorten the game. Note that their two previous MAC road games have totaled just 45 and 57 points. Take the under (9*).

MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Ball State and Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

This is a big game for Ball State as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Miami-Ohio and pick up a much-needed fourth victory of the season to keep its hopes of reaching a possible Bowl game alive. While it looks like a layup on paper, I don't expect Akron to simply roll over. The Zips are coming off a 45-10 beatdown at the hands of Buffalo, at home no less, after they had managed to split a two-game road trip, going a perfect 2-0 ATS along the way. While Akron is by no means a defensive stalwart, it's not as if teams have been bombing away against it. The Zips have allowed over 20 pass completions only twice this season. Yes, opponents have generally elected to run the ball down their throats but Ball State isn't an elite rushing team, averaging only 116 rush yards per game on 3.5 yards per rush this season with that number dropping to 3.3 ypr on the road. Of course, the Zips offense has been rather punchless as usual and this doesn't look like an ideal breakout spot against a Ball State squad that has allowed 22, 20, 31 and 24 points against much tougher opposition in conference play. Take the under (9*).

My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas Tech at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Texas Tech has faced a fairly easy schedule in recent weeks, but still only managed to go 2-2 SU since suffering a 70-35 rout at the hands of Texas in the final week of September. Now I believe the Red Raiders are ripe for another blowout loss as they catch Oklahoma in the wrong place the wrong time. The Sooners did win last week, but it wasn't pretty. They only managed to get past Kansas on a late surge, ultimately prevailing by a 35-23 score. Keep in mind, the last time we saw the Sooners play at home they rolled up over 500 yards of total offense in a 21-point rout of TCU. I believe they're well-positioned to post another rout here, noting they've put up a whopping 117 points in their last two meetings with Texas Tech. Here, we'll back the Sooners noting that they've gone 29-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over a conference opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 22.4 points. Take Oklahoma (8*).