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ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday.

You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse than Tulane right now. The wheels have completely come off since the Green Wave opened the season with such promise after taking Oklahoma down to the wire in Norman before dismantling FCS squad Morgan State 69-20. Since then, Tulane has gone 0-5 SU and ATS. We successfully faded the Green Wave last week as they fell by 29 points against SMU. Now they face an even tougher challenge as they host second-ranked Cincinnati on Saturday, and likely do so without starting QB Michael Pratt. Pratt has been one of the only good things Tulane has had going for it as he has at least given the offense a pulse with his dual-threat ability. The Bearcats enter this game off a subpar performance against Navy last week. Of course, facing the Midshipmen is always a unique experience with their triple-option attack. Cincinnati actually did a good job of limiting the Navy offense in that game but got bogged down offensively itself. Here, I expect to see QB Desmond Ridder and his incredible supporting cast go off against a hapless Tulane defense that has been lit up for 4.6 yards per rush and 8.6 yard per pass attempt this season. The fact that Tulane has given up 40 and 55 points over its last two games is telling when you consider the offense turned the football over only twice. It's not as if the Green Wave have been handing the opposition a bunch of extra possessions. Look for the Bearcats to make the most of what they're given on Saturday as they bounce back from just their second ATS loss of the season (the first came as 36.5-point favorites against FCS squad Murray State back in Week 2). Take Cincinnati (9*).

AAC First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on East Carolina first half minus the points over South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I like the fact that we're only being asked to lay single-digits with the Pirates in the first half in this key late October home game. East Carolina is coming off a hard-fought overtime loss at Houston last week - its second straight heart-breaking loss after falling by a 20-16 score at UCF in its previous game. Everything is still in front of the Pirates, however, as they certainly have a path to six wins and a potential Bowl game but there's no denying they need the win on Thursday against South Florida to make that happen. We actually won with the Bulls in last Saturday's rout of Temple. It wasn't a clean performance by any means, but USF was the lesser of two evils and managed to walk away with its second victory of the season. Unlike ECU, USF doesn't have much of a shot at going Bowling this season with a difficult schedule still ahead and no margin for error. The problem here is, the Bulls are dealing with a number of injuries and playing on a short week, on the road no less, doesn't help matters. With a defense that has been absolutely gashed both against the run and the pass, I have a hard time envisioning the Bulls offense, which could be led by multi-program disappointment Cade Fortin, struggling to get off on the right foot in this one. Note that the Bulls are a miserable 4-16 ATS as first half underdogs over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.5 points. Worse still, they're 0-6 ATS in the first half when coming off a win over the same stretch, averaging a paltry 2.7 points while being outscored by an average margin of 20.8 points. On the flip side, ECU has outscored the opposition by 13.7 points on average in the first half at home this season. Take ECU first half (10*).

My selection is on South Florida minus the points over Temple at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We won with an easy fade of Temple last week in Cincinnati and I won't hesitate to go back to the well at a much more reasonable price as the Owls stay on the road to face South Florida on Saturday. This one has pretty much fallen into our laps with the Bulls falling to under a field goal favorite. There's really nothing curious about the line. Temple is a respectable 3-3 on the season while USF checks in a miserable 1-5. But let's keep things in perspective here. The Owls wins have come against Akron, FCS squad Wagner and Memphis. Yes, the win over Memphis could be considered somewhat impressive but that had everything to do with the Tigers jumping out to a big lead early and thinking they had the win in the bag, without a legitimate defense to back it up. South Florida has faced a brutal schedule, going up against N.C. State, BYU and SMU on the road and Florida, Florida A&M (its lone win) and Tulsa here at home. Credit the Bulls for coming out of their bye week and giving a quality Tulsa squad all it could handle in a one-point loss last week. This is essentially a 'must-win' game for Temple if it wants to keep its Bowl hopes alive and I like that as it's certainly being factored into the line in our favor with the Bulls. South Florida doesn't have the benefit of carrying the same (false) hope but should get up for this winnable game before the schedule gets tougher again down the stretch. Take South Florida (9*).

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Texas-San Antonio has earned a national top-25 ranking for the first time in program history but I expect its stay to be short-lived. Wins are never easy to come by for teams that travel to Ruston to face the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech, regardless the state of the program. Here, I question who the Roadrunners have really beat this year? The wins have come against Illinois, Lamar, Middle Tennessee, Memphis, UNLV, Western Kentucky and Rice. Even the 'name' programs in that bunch are mired in down years. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech checks in 2-4 on the season but as I mentioned, it has been competitive once again here in Ruston, going 2-1 with its lone loss coming by two points on a touchdown with six seconds left in the fourth quarter against still-undefeated and nationally-ranked SMU back on September 18th. The Bulldogs laid an egg on the road against UTEP last week and that's a big reason why we're dealing with such a generous helping of points here. Keep in mind, just two games back, Louisiana Tech went on the road and gave N.C. State all it could handle in a seven-point loss. There's still a clear path for Louisiana Tech to reach a Bowl game this year as I count five winnable games left on its schedule - including this one. Remember, this same matchup produced a narrow 27-26 result in favor of UTSA last year. Expect another tightly-contested affair here. Take Louisiana Tech (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The bye week came at the right time for Wake Forest as it was very fortunate to remain undefeated in spite of awful defensive performances against Louisville and Syracuse in consecutive weeks heading in. This is a far stronger defense that it has shown as far as I'm concerned and now it gets a tough, albeit different test against Army's triple-option offense on Saturday. I expect the Demon Deacons defense to rise to the occasion. On the flip side, Army knows it needs to tighten things up after suffering consecutive losses - its first two defeats of the season - against Ball State and Wisconsin. The Black Knights defense certainly wasn't bad in either game - in fact, this is a unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, but it knows it will need to be better against a dynamic Wake Forest offense on Saturday. Having scored 35+ points in each of its first six games this season, Wake Forest is certainly in line for some regression offensively and this would appear to be an ideal spot for that as this has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (9*).

My selection is on Washington minus the points over Arizona at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Arizona has quietly been one of the worst teams in the country this season and I don't envision a sudden turnaround against Washington on Friday night. The Wildcats didn't score a single point in last week's 34-0 drubbing at the hands of a fairly weak Colorado squad. Arizona has yet to win a game this season - in fact, it has yet to break 20 points in a game. QBs Gunner Cruz and Jordan McCloud are sidelined for the remainder of the season leaving the starting job to an ineffective Will Plummer. The only reason the Wildcats defense hasn't posted truly embarrassing numbers is because they haven't faced many explosive offensive opponents. Still, it's notable that they allowed 271 rush yards against San Diego State and a whopping 329 yards on the ground against UCLA. The Washington ground game has been held down for the most part but that should change here. Remember, the Huskies did run for 200 yards against Arkansas State and 176 yards against Oregon State earlier this season so they're certainly capable of salting this game away should they build a considerable lead. We can expect the Huskies to be afforded some extra offensive possessions in this contest, noting that Arizona simply hasn't taken care of the football, turning it over a whopping 12 times over its last four games. Washington got a big boost on the defensive side of the football with extraordinary pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui getting on the field for 10 plays against UCLA in his long-awaited return from a torn achilles. He's expected to see more action this week and should wreak havoc against a very beatable Arizona offensive front. The Huskies defense is loaded with talent and experience but hasn't necessarily lived up to expectations this season. With that being said, teams that don't boast much of a ground game don't have much luck against Washington, as the Huskies have held opposing passing games to just 5.4 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.2 yppa. While they have given up a less than impressive 4.7 yards per rush, that's against opponents that average 4.8 ypr. Despite a rough 2-4 start to the season, there's still a path for the Huskies to reach a Bowl game with four games left on their schedule. It goes without saying they need the win here, however. I'm confident they'll get it, in convincing fashion. Take Washington (10*).

CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Jose State at 11 pm et on Thursday.

We won with San Jose State as it gave San Diego State everything it could handle in a double-overtime loss last week. In fact, I've been fairly high on the Spartans for much of the season. With that being said, I'm going to go the other way and fade SJSU as it hits the road to face winless UNLV at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Thursday night. There's no denying the fact that the season has been somewhat of a disaster for San Jose State. The Spartans have quite simply been unable to recapture the magic that led them to a Mountain West Conference championship last season. Last week's loss was a back-breaker both physically and emotionally. While there's no question the Spartans absolutely need to get a win over the Rebels here, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. The schedule won't get any easier from here and at this point, San Jose State might be hard-pressed to simply reach a Bowl game. UNLV checks in 0-6 on the season but it continues to play hard, with its last three and four of six losses this season coming by eight points or less. The Rebels schedule has been tough to be sure, you could argue this is only their second winnable game of the campaign (they lost their season-opener 35-33 as a 1.5-point favorite against FCS squad Eastern Washington). There was certainly no shame in taking better-than-expected Fresno State and Texas-San Antonio teams down to the wire (on the road no less) before dropping a narrow 28-24 decision against Utah State last week. We've seen flashes of brilliance from the Rebels on both sides of the football throughout the campaign but consistency, or a lack thereof, has been an issue. Here, they should benefit from facing a Spartans squad that has dealt with similar problems, but has been just plain bad for the most part on offense, whether due to injuries or otherwise. They could get QB Nick Starkel back from injury this week but even when he was healthy early in the season, their offense still sputtered. The fact that SJSU only managed to pull out four and six-point victories against Hawaii and New Mexico State respectively is telling. While the Rebels look like they're having a whole lot of fun (take note of the slot machine they have on their sideline for home games at Allegiant Stadium) and making progress, the opposite can be said of the Spartans. Here, I'll note that the Spartans average just 24.5 points and outscore the opposition by a minuscule 0.3 points on average when playing on the road off an ATS win over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That includes an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season as they fell by a 30-7 score at USC back in the first week of September. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Utah over Arizona State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

We won with Arizona State in its 18-point victory over Stanford last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Sun Devils here as they head on the road for only the second time this season to face Utah on Saturday night. Keep in mind, Arizona State's lone loss this season came away from home as it fell 27-17 against BYU. The Sun Devils didn't come out of last week's win unscathed as they're dealing with a cluster of injuries on the defensive side of the football. Key DT Jermayne Lole is gone for the season while safety Evan Fields is questionable to play against the Utes on Saturday. Those are only a couple of the walking wounded. Utah continues to make up for lost time after starting the season with two losses in its first three games (the Utes lost those games outright as favorites on the road against BYU and San Diego State). After posting consecutive wins over Washington State and USC and with six very winnable games coming up after this one in Pac-12 play, everything is still in front of the Utes despite their poor start. Note that Utah checks in 12-3 ATS from October on over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.5 points along the way. On the flip side, the Sun Devils are a miserable 24-42 ATS the last 66 times they've come off victories in four or five of their last six games, as is the case here (5-1 on the season). Take Utah (9*).

My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Saturday.

It seems that everyone was down on Colorado State at the start of the season and perhaps for good reason as they opened with a 42-23 loss to FCS squad South Dakota State and followed that up with a defeat at the hands of lowly Vanderbilt. But then a funny thing happened, the Rams upset Toledo 22-6 at the Glass Bowl and proceeded to give top-five ranked Iowa a serious run in an eventual 10-point loss (on the road) before crushing San Jose State 32-14 last Saturday. The Rams have a lot going for them now and while it won't be easy, there is a path for them to potentially reach a Bowl game, but they need to keep it rolling in this very winnable game against New Mexico and I'm confident they will. Colorado State QB Todd Centeio is coming off arguably his best performance of the season as he completed 19-of-23 passes for 232 yards and a touchdown in last week's rout of San Jose State. Most importantly, he's taking good care of the football, having not thrown a single interception over the last three games, despite facing a pretty tough slate of defensive opponents over that stretch. Centeio isn't just a passer either, he can make plays with his legs, having run for at least 37 yards in three of the last four games. There's reason to believe Centeio will have some help in this one as the Rams backfield is coming off their best performance of the season. Saturday's opponent, New Mexico, got off to a 2-0 start this season but that was thanks to facing the likes of FCS squad Houston Baptist and New Mexico State. Since then, the Aggies have gone 0-4, outscored by a wide 123-30 margin. The injuries are starting to pile up, with Kentucky transfer QB Terry Wilson the latest to go down. He's questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he can go, I'm not convinced the offense can do much, noting that the only seven points the Aggies scored last week against San Diego State came by way of a fumble return for a touchdown. You would have to go back five-and-a-half quarters to find the last time New Mexico State scored an offensive touchdown. That's the Aggies only offensive TD over their last 11 quarters of football. Take Colorado State (10*).

CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*).

MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

The fact that the 'under' has cashed in Duke's last two games and each of Virginia's last three contests is the only thing keeping this number even reasonably in check on Saturday. I realize we're working with a lofty total still, but I do think it could be even higher. Duke's defense lacks the talent and experience to slow anyone down. Sure, the Blue Devils held FCS squad North Carolina A&T and a punchless Northwestern offense down earlier in the season but since then they've been flamed for 33, 38 and 31 points in games against Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Things certainly don't get any easier against a Virginia offense that likes to bomb away, having attempted 40+ passes in five straight games and 57 or more in three of its last four contests. Back to Duke, its offense looks poised for a breakout here with QB Gunnar Holmberg settling in and throwing for touchdown passes in four straight games, topping the 290-yard mark three times over that stretch. He remains a threat to run as well, noting that he scored four rushing touchdowns in a game against Kansas back in late September. We've also seen RB Mataeo Durant emerge as a home run threat out of the backfield, running for over 100 yards in five of six games and north of 150 yards on two occasions this season. Virginia can't help but get involved in shootouts on a weekly basis as it allows 5.2 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Were it not for nine turnovers in its last five games, Virginia's offense would have posted monster numbers this season. As it is, the Cavaliers are still stuffing the boxscore, racking up over 400 passing yards in four of their last five games. Note that the Blue Devils haven't had a lick of success against the pass this season, allowing 431 pass yards per game on a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Take the over (9*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

While San Jose State hasn't gotten off to the start it hoped for this season, due in part to losing QB Nick Starkel to injury, everything is still in front of the Spartans. I still see a path to seven victories and a Bowl game but the turnaround has to start here against San Diego State on Friday night. Keep in mind, the Spartans upset the Aztecs as a double-digit road underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. While San Jose State hasn't played as well as it did during that magical 2020 campaign, I still believe it can hang with an Aztecs squad that also isn't without its flaws. San Diego State rolled to a 31-7 victory over New Mexico last Saturday, improving to a perfect 5-0 on the season. The Spartans certainly know what to expect when it comes to the Aztecs offense. San Diego State will lean heavily on its two-headed monster in the backfield, Greg and Chance Bell. If there's one area where the Spartans defense has been stout, it's against the run as they've limited opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season. With a still unproven QB in Jordon Brookshire, who has been banged-up for most of the season, the Aztecs aerial attack isn't all that imposing. It remains to be seen whether San Jose State QB Starkel can return for this game. Even if he can't, I do expect Nick Nash to perform better than he did in last week's road game against Colorado State. Nash has had enough playing time going back to last season to settle into the offense a little bit and is more of a dual threat than Starkel. Consider San Diego State's defense has feasted on the likes of New Mexico State, Arizona, Towson and New Mexico this season. In its only real test it allowed 31 points in a narrow two-point win over Utah. San Jose State, meanwhile, has only had two home games, scoring a whopping 82 points in those two contests, albeit against weaker opposition. Take San Jose State (10*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*).

Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*).

CFB Independents Game of the Year. My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Connecticut at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm actually surprised we've seen this line flip since opening with Connecticut now favored in advance of Saturday's 'toilet bowl' matchup between two of the country's worst FBS teams. I won't spend much time waxing on about how impressive UMass is. That's simply not the case. However, I do feel that the Minutemen are further along in their progression back to respectability than UConn, which was of course forced to cancel its entire 2020 season. With this being a rivalry game, you can be sure the UMass players that were on board for 2019's beatdown at the hands of the Huskies haven't forgotten about it. This is the perfect opportunity to gain an ounce of revenge given the state of UConn. We actually won with the Huskies in last week's narrow loss against lowly Vanderbilt. They were catching far too many points in that one - I wasn't one bit surprised that they were competitive, riding high off a near-miss against Wyoming the week previous. Here, however, I expect to see somewhat of a letdown. UMass has faced a brutal early season schedule, going up against Pitt and Coastal Carolina on the road and Boston College, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home. Let's face it, none of those games were winnable. I will give credit to the Minutemen for showing signs of life offensively, putting up 28 points in consecutive weeks against BC and EMU earlier in the season. After getting shut down by CCU and Toledo over the last two weeks, I'm confident they can get back on track offensively against a toothless UConn defense. Note that the Huskies are down to their third-string quarterback in Steven Krajewski. He caught Vandy a little flat-footed in last week's game but won't be so fortunate here as the Minutemen have some game film to break down. Not only are they deep into the QB depth chart but the Huskies are also dealing with somewhat of a Covid-19 breakout on the offensive line. It remains to be seen who will be good to go for Saturday's contest. Take Massachusetts (10*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We faded the Cardinals last week and missed the mark as they gave Wake Forest everything it could handle, away from home no less, ultimately losing on a last-second field goal. Here, the Cardinals draw a more favorable matchup back at home as they look to bounce back against an up-and-down Virginia team that is coming off a two-point win in Miami last week. The Cavaliers just as easily could have lost that game but the Canes missed a last-second field goal that would have secured the win. Don't be fooled by that narrow win, Virginia isn't playing particularly well right now, with just one victory in its last three games, allowing a whopping 124 points over that stretch. Now the Cavaliers have to face a Louisville offense that has really gotten rolling after a slow start to the season. Cards QB Malik Cunningham entered the season with high expectations and lately he's been delivering, both with his arm and his legs. While I still have questions about the Cardinals defense, I believe this is a matchup they can handle, especially after limiting Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman to just 23-of-40 passing in last Saturday's game. These two teams have met in each of the last two seasons with the home side winning on both occasions. Louisville's ground attack was dominant in those two games, racking up 544 rushing yards. Allowing five yards per rush this season, the Cavs don't appear well-positioned to slow the Cardinals here. Take Louisville (9*).

My selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I love the way this one sets up as a bounce-back spot for Ole Miss as it returns home licking its wounds off a blowout loss at Alabama while Arkansas stays on the road after getting crushed at Georgia. I don't think there's any question, there was a bit of 'smoke and mirrors' involved in Arkansas' perfect 4-0 start to the season. We certainly saw the Hogs weren't ready for primetime in last week's rout at the hands of the Bulldogs. While there was no real shame in losing to a team as good as Georgia, it was the way Arkansas got dominated that was concerning. Yes, Ole Miss got blown out as well but at least it was able to show some push-back, scoring 21 points in a three-touchdown loss. The Rebels should be able to get right back on track here as they play extremely fast and have the potential to overwhelm a Razorbacks offense that simply isn't built to play from behind. Note that Arkansas has yet to complete more than 14 passes in a game this season. The Hogs rely heavily on their ground attack but the Rebels have proven to be fairly stout against the run. Even in last week's game against mighty Alabama, with game script favoring the Crimson Tide running wild over the course of the afternoon, Ole Miss still allowed just a shade north of four yards per rush. Here, we'll back the Rebels noting that they've gone 25-10 ATS the last 35 times they've come off consecutive games in which they forced less than two turnovers, as is the case here, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 7.4 points. Also note that Arkansas has averaged just 17.2 points per game, outscored by 8.5 points on average, the last 15 times it has come off a road loss by 28 points or more. Take Ole Miss (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

I believe this game has blowout potential as Arizona State is rolling again off consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado and UCLA. Stanford is fresh off an emotional, come-from-behind overtime win over Oregon. Dealing with a number of key injuries and playing on the road on a short week, I don't see this as a favorable spot for the Cardinal. It's likely we'll see Stanford play from behind for much of the night and while they did manage to come back against Oregon last week, they would be playing with fire attempting to do so again here. That's because the Cardinal passing attack isn't built to bomb away. Stanford has completed 20 passes or fewer in each of its last four games since opening the season with 23 pass completions in a blowout loss against Kansas State (the Cardinal threw for just 194 yards in that game). Note that Stanford is losing the time of possession battle by an average of well north of three minutes, while averaging just 4.2 yards per rush this season. By contrast, the Sun Devils absolutely have the ability to salt this game away with a ground attack that averages 5.5 yards per rush this season. While the Sun Devils offense gets a lot of the attention, their experienced, talented defense has played exceptionally well, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while not allowing a single opponent to throw for more than 235 yards. Note that Stanford is allowing 39.3 points per game when playing as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take Arizona State (10*).

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

These teams are certainly heading in opposite directions with Houston sitting at 4-1 and Tulane stuck at 1-4. All is not lost for the Green Wave, however. There are still seven games remaining on the schedule with the toughest matchup (against Cincinnati) coming at home. This is the same Tulane squad that opened the season with a narrow five-point loss on the road against Oklahoma. Turnovers have been a major problem as the Green Wave have coughed up the football eight times over their last two games. I do think that's something they can clean up here, however, and believe we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that the Green Wave are a perfect 7-0 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points on average in that spot. Under head coach Willie Fritz, Tulane has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.8 points after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Houston is just 2-9 ATS under head coach Dana Holgorsen when coming off an ATS victory, outscored by 3.6 points on average in that situation. I'll also note that the Green Wave have posted an impressive 6-0 ATS mark, outscoring opponents by 4.6 point son average, under Fritz when facing opponents that average 34 or more points per game, as is the case with Houston here. Take Tulane (9*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Coastal Carolina is a bonafide juggernaut and I look for it to keep rolling against Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves have fallen on hard times, losing 11 of 15 games since the start of last season. Keep in mind, this is a program that lost no more than five games in eight of nine seasons between 2011 and 2019. The offense remains explosive at times, however I don't like the dual quarterback situation between James Blackman and Layne Hatcher. Both are solid in their own right but sharing time just doesn't seem like the answer, even if head coach Butch Jones seems bent on it continuing. Defensively, Arkansas State has been a mess, struggling to improve after a disastrous 2020 season. The Red Wolves simply don't have the personnel in place to stop the likes of the Chanticleers. Coastal Carolina has done a tremendous job of mixing up tempo on offense, essentially toying with the majority of the defenses it has faced this season. QB Grayson McCall turned his ankle in last week's win over Louisiana-Monroe but all indications are that he'll be good to go for this one and was lifted from last Saturday's game as a precaution only. With an offense that can score at will and an underrated defense that isn't simply along for the ride, I'm confident the Chanticleers can keep the back door firmly closed in this one. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).

CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is absolutely a 'plug your nose and bet it' type of a play on Saturday night. I'm as surprised as you that I'm actually getting behind UConn after we successfully faded it in two out of three tries (the lone loss was a free play on the Huskies when they back-doored Army two weeks ago) already this season. I do like the progression I've seen from the Huskies, however, and certainly believe they can hang with another down-trodden program in Vanderbilt. As I mentioned, two weeks ago we saw UConn fall behind 42-0 before halftime at Army before outscoring the Black Knights 21-10 in the second half in an eventual back-door cover. The fact that the Huskies didn't quite in that game meant something and we saw some carry-over in last week's home game against a tough Wyoming squad as UConn jumped out to a 13-0 lead and ultimately hung tough for four quarters in a 24-22 loss. That was certainly an impressive performance on both sides of the football against a Cowboys squad that is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Now the Huskies get a stretch where they can potentially build some confidence, facing Vandy, UMass and Yale in consecutive weeks. Vandy does have a win to its credit this season but that came by just three points against an awful Colorado State squad. Since then, the Commodores have had their doors blown off in two games against Stanford and Georgia, outscored by a combined 103-23 margin. Note that they've scored just one touchdown in their last nine quarters of action, that coming in the final seconds of a game that was long decided against Stanford. The fact that Vandy somehow managed to give up 35 points in less than a quarter of action last week, even against a power program like Georgia, was telling. There are few redeeming qualities when it comes to either of these teams but I think we're seeing Vandy laying north of a touchdown simply due to the SEC vs. Independent angle. There's a chance that UConn can prove to be a 'tough out' over the remainder of the season and I'm willing to bet on that on Saturday. Take Connecticut (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Baylor plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I'm starting to believe in Baylor. Two weeks ago we cashed with the Bears in their rout of lowly Kansas. While that was a game they were certainly expected to win, I liked the way they absolutely poured it on in the second half, scoring 31 unanswered points in a 45-7 rout. Last week, the Bears were involved in a game they weren't necessarily expected to win but gutted out a hard-fought 31-29 victory over then-14th ranked Iowa State. Now comes a very difficult test in Stillwater, noting that Oklahoma State rolled to a 42-3 victory when these two teams met last December. I think the Bears will be up for the challenge. While Oklahoma State deals with a number of key injuries on both sides of the football (defensive stars Tre Sterling and Trace Ford the most notable), Baylor enters this showdown relatively healthy. We've seen a number of players step up and take on big roles for the Bears this season. It starts with QB Gerry Bohanon, who was given the opportunity to start at the beginning of the season and has certainly made the most of it, seemingly getting better with each passing week. Bohanon has thrown for seven touchdowns while running for another four. He's yet to throw an interception but did fumble twice in last week's victory. Of course it helps to have a tremendous supporting cast. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton make up one of the top wide receiver tandems in the nations - an unappreciated tandem at that. Trestan Ebner was thought to be the 1-A back but he's actually taken a backseat to Abram Smith at times, who has three 118+ yard rushing performances with five touchdowns to his credit already this season. While the Bears are known for their explosive offense, it's their defense that impressed me most this season. This is a loaded unit that was expected to take a big step forward this season and it has. This is a manageable matchup given Oklahoma State has been held to 31 points or less in all four games this season and as I mentioned is missing a few key cogs due to injury on offense. We saw the Cowboys score three offensive touchdowns in the game's first 20 minutes last week against Kansas State but they were held to a single field goal the rest of the way. In fact, Oklahoma State hasn't scored a single second half point in its last two games. RB Jaylen Warren has been outstanding the last couple of weeks in particular but he's not better than Breece Hall, who the Bears dealt with against Iowa State last Saturday. Simply put, Baylor has the talent and depth up front and at the back-end to make life miserable for Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders on Saturday night. Provided the Bears don't get swallowed up by the sheer size and importance of this matchup, I believe they can hang for 60 minutes. Take Baylor (10*).

My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's not easy to get behind the Seminoles these days as they enter Saturday's matchup with Syracuse sporting a winless 0-4 record. But how many games could we have expected them to win at this point? Three of their four losses have come against Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville - three teams that have combined to post an 11-1 overall record this season. The other loss was a stunner for sure against FCS squad Jacksonville State. The 'Noles clearly got caught letting their guard down in that one, playing on a short week off an overtime loss against Notre Dame and leading by 10 points late in the fourth quarter before the Gamecocks came up with a pair of touchdowns. Nevertheless, the 'Noles continue on and with a tough date at North Carolina looming next week, a win is critical here against Syracuse. The Orange are off to a solid 3-1 start but I'm not all that high on them at this point. The schedule has had everything to do with Syracuse's strong start, noting that its three wins have come against an Ohio squad that is much worse than expected, FCS team Albany and Liberty. The loss came by double-digits at home against Rutgers. The Orange surprisingly went with Garrett Shrader at quarterback in last week's game against Liberty. Shrader is arguably a better runner than passer and is expected to get the start again here. Keep in mind, Florida State just faced one of the best running quarterbacks in the nation in Malik Cunningham of Louisville last week so the 'Noles will certainly be ready for Shrader. RB Sean Tucker has been the big difference-maker for the Orange so far this season - he's coming off a 169-yard rushing effort in last week's win over Liberty. He's risen to the occasion against the weaker squads on Syracuse's schedule but was bottled up for just 54 yards on 13 carries against Rutgers. Despite playing with negative game-script during its 0-4 start, Florida State has actually allowed just 132.3 rush yards per game this season. It's the pass that has hurt the 'Noles most but I'm not convinced that either Shrader or former starter Tommy DeVito are capable of taking advantage for the Orange. On the flip side, note that when teams have chosen to throw on the Orange they've found success to the tune of a 73.5% completion percentage. This sets up as a potential breakout game for Florida State QB McKenzie Milton. I also question whether the Syracuse defense will be able to contain underrated 'Noles RB Jashaun Corbin who has ran for 439 yards and three scores - good for a whopping 9.2 yards per rush through four games this season. The 'Noles are looking to take their frustrations out on someone and I believe the Orange fit the bill. Take Florida State (9*).

My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Louisville at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Demon Deacons are off to a perfect 4-0 start but will face a tough test in the form of Louisville - a team that has had their number over the last couple of seasons - on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem. I expect Wake Forest to rise the occasion, however. This is a different Demon Deacons squad than we've seen in recent years, boasting a ton of talent and experience on both sides of the football. Wake has shown the ability to jump ahead and salt away games from there, which is precisely what we saw last week as it didn't allow another score after Virginia cut its lead to 27-17 with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. I believe the Deacs' can follow a similar script here, especially with Louisville losing the heart-and-soul of its defense, Monty Montgomery, to a season-ending knee injury. In last week's game in particular, Louisville's opponent Florida State didn't persist with its ground attack nearly enough in the early going, ultimately playing from behind the entire game. When it did decide to test the Cardinals front it found success, including a 75-yard touchdown run in the third quarter. As impressive as the Louisville offense has looked at times, it has also gone stagnant for periods. Last week it scored 31 first half points but then didn't score again in what turned out to be an eight-point win over aforementioned Florida State. There was a game against FCS squad Eastern Kentucky earlier this season where the Cardinals scored an offensive touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter and then didn't find the end zone on offense again until there were just over five minutes left in the third quarter. I expect the Deacs' defensive athleticism to be a difference-maker in this one as they have the personnel to contain Cards dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham. I also won't discount the fact that Wake Forest has had an extra day of preparation having played last Friday night; it does matter as we flip the calendar over to October. Take Wake Forest (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Wake Forest at 12:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams over the last two seasons with Louisville prevailing in both. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. It's worth noting that Wake Forest has put up 35 points or more in four straight games to open the season. I went back over the last decade and didn't find a single other occurrence where the Demon Deacons accomplished that feat at any time during a season. They came close last year, scoring 35+ points in three straight games. In their next contest they won a low-scoring battle against Virginia Tech by a 23-16 score. I really like the way Wake has been able to salt away victories in the fourth quarter this season. That comes with an effective offensive line and potent rushing attack. Last week against Virginia, Wake didn't allow a single score from five minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Two weeks ago, the Deacs' held the Seminoles off the scoreboard for the entire second half. Louisville isn't running the same 'boom or bust' offense we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Cards are content to move up and down the field in small chunks with lots of slants and out-reads, with a healthy dose of their ground attack led by dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham mixed in. I suspect the Deacs' will be content to keep everything in front of them in this one - I really like their speed and athleticism on defense, particularly at the linebacker position and with that in mind, I'm confident they can contain Cunningham for much of the afternoon on Saturday. The Cards would be wise to employ a similar gameplan to what we saw back in Week 1 against high-powered Ole Miss. That means playing 'keep away' while also limiting the type of plays that could allow the turnover-happy Wake defense to feast. The lofty total makes sense given how high-scoring the last two matchups between these two teams have been (I take last year's Louisville blowout win with a grain of salt as it came in the final week of the season after Wake Forest dealt with four cancellations due to Covid protocols), I simply feel it will prove too high in an ACC showdown with a lot at stake. Take the under (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday.

The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'under' in Virginia's blowout loss to Wake Forest last Friday night but were admittedly fortunate to do so as the Cavaliers offered very little defensive resistance in a 37-17 loss. After getting dummied by the North Carolina and Wake Forest offenses over the last two weeks, I do look for a response from the Cavaliers here. As I've noted before this season, Virginia does boast plenty of talent and experience on the defensive side of the football, particularly at the back-end. It was the Cavaliers run defense that got gashed last Friday and I believe that had something to do with the Demon Deacons catching them off guard with a more run-heavy approach. Here, Virginia will catch a Miami team that is coming off a 69-point explosion but that came against FCS squad Central Connecticut State. The Hurricanes are in a bit of a state of flux right now with questions around whether QB D'Eriq King may have lost his starting job. King has been a general disappointment since joining the Canes last season and with freshman Tyler Van Dyke coming in and throwing for 270 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last Saturday, there's a good chance we'll see Van Dyke again here. Regardless who takes the majority of the snaps, I like the 'under'. Keep in mind, Van Dyke is still learning the offense and now will have to prepare on a short week. Virginia opened the season scoring 43, 42 and 39 points in its first three games. That had more to do with the level of opposition they faced (and game script in a wild, high-scoring affair against North Carolina) than anything else. This will be the Cavaliers toughest defensive test to date as they head on the road to take on a Canes defense that is better than it showed in early season losses to Alabama and Michigan State. While they did allow 38 points against Michigan State in their last relevant game, the Canes actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half in that one. It wasn't until late in the fourth quarter that things really unraveled as Spartans standout RB Kenneth Walker wore them down with over 170 yards on the ground. The Cavaliers aren't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Note that last week against a beatable Wake Forest defense, Virginia didn't find the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter. It wasn't able to lean much on its ground attack after falling behind early. I certainly don't think the Cavaliers want QB Brennan Armstrong throwing the football 59 times again in this one. The hope is that they'll have RB Wayne Taulapapa back from a concussion for this game, which would help them grind out longer, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep their overworked defense off the field and effectively shorten this game. Note that the 'under' is 36-16 with Miami having lost three of its last four games ATS, with those contests totaling an average of just 46.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-13 with Virginia coming off consecutive games where it lost the turnover battle, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 46.1 points. There's reason to believe a more conservative gameplan could serve the Cavaliers well as they try to win for the first time in three weeks. Take the under (10*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Buffalo got off to a roaring start this season, blasting FCS squad Wagner 69-7 in its opener. Since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games, albeit as considerable underdogs on the road against Nebraska and at home against Coastal Carolina. There's no reason to be down on the Bulls right now and I fully expect to see them take their frustrations out on Old Dominion this week. The Monarchs are off to an identical 1-2 start although their long-term prospects this season aren't nearly as favorable as Buffalo's. Keep in mind, ODU was forced to cancel its entire 2020 season due to Covid concerns and as a result had a number of players transfer out of the program entirely. That leaves the cupboard somewhat bare this season as the Monarchs look to build the program back up. Note that their lone victory so far came against an FCS team, Hampton. In its other two contests, ODU was outscored by an 87-27 margin against Wake Forest and Liberty. The Monarchs are particularly thin on the defensive side of the football and that was more than evident last Saturday as they were torched for four first half touchdowns against Liberty. Buffalo is precisely the type of team they probably don't want to see this week as the Bulls can beat you in a variety of different ways. It's worth noting that in both of the Monarchs previous losses their opponent has taken their foot off the gas in the second half, something I don't anticipate seeing out of Buffalo given it needs to turn in a complete 60-minute effort after suffering consecutive losses. Remember, back in Week 1 against Wagner, the Bulls jumped ahead 38-0 before halftime but still proceeded to add 31 more points in the game's final 30 minutes. Once Buffalo is able to build a lead in this one we can count on its ground game to salt the game away with a trio of running backs capable of going off. In fact, through three games, the Bulls have had three different players lead the team in rushing. QB Kyle Vantrease is more of a game manager than anything else but has shown the ability to go off through the air in the past and this is certainly a matchup where he can take advantage of an ODU secondary that was forced to make wholesale changes after canceling the 2020 season. Take Buffalo (10*).

My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Kent State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with Maryland last week as the Terps won but failed to cover in a low-scoring Friday night game in Illinois. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Terps as they're well-positioned to win by margin against Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense. That high-octane offense has been great in MAC play in recent years, and certainly against FCS opponents. However, pit the Golden Flashes against teams from the Power Five conferences and they don't fare so well. Back in 2019 we saw Kent State score a combined 23 points in three road games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Of course, 2020 was a unique season that only featured MAC games for the Golden Flashes. So far this season we've seen Kent State put up 10 points at Texas A&M and seven points at Iowa - sandwiched around a 60-10 rout of FCS squad VMI. Maryland has the size, talent and experience on the defensive side of the football to effectively swallow up the Golden Flashes offense, which as I mentioned is predicated on playing fast and coming up with big plays from its shifty running backs and speedy wide receivers. Kent State's offensive line, while experienced, hasn't held up well at all through three games this season, allowing QB Dustin Crum to be sacked a whopping 10 times through three games. With Crum taking a beating, the Golden Flashes would probably be well-suited to 'punt' this one before opening their MAC schedule with a home game against Bowling Green next Saturday. Unlike the Terps, Kent State lacks the size up front on defense to keep opposing offenses at bay. Maryland's offense was held down against Illinois last week but it was more due to a lack of execution at key points of the game than anything else as the Terps converted just two-of-10 third down opportunities. QB Taulia Tagovailoa actually completed 32-of-43 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown in the three-point win. Unfortunately, the Terps coughed up a pair of fumbles which ultimately ended up being the different between a win and a win and ATS cover. Look for the Terps to bully the Kent State defensive line and open things up for their underrated ground attack in this one. Tagovailoa will have his moments as Maryland boasts a deep group of talented wide receivers, but I suspect Tayon Fleet-Davis may actually be the star of this game. If you're concerned about the back door being left open in this one, keep in mind Maryland led Howard (admittedly an FCS squad) 38-0 at halftime two weeks ago but continued to pour it on in the second half, scoring another 24 unanswered points. Backup QB Reece Udinski is capable, having gone 5-for-5 passing for 73 yards and a score in that rout. Take Maryland (9*).

CFB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Northwestern at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We successfully faded the Ohio Bobcats in their rout at the hands of Louisiana-Lafayette last Thursday night. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bobcats as they stay on the road to face Northwestern on Saturday. Consider Ohio's loss last week 'rock-bottom'. While it's been an awful 0-3 start to the season and the post-Frank Solich era, all is not lost. Everything is actually still in front of the Bobcats with a full MAC schedule set to begin next week. While the Week 2 loss to FCS squad Duquesne was ugly, the fact is Ohio wasn't really expected to win either of its other two games. With a strong performance on Saturday, the Bobcats can at the very least feel good about themselves entering the onset of conference play. Perhaps the best news for Ohio is that standout WR Isiah Cox is expected to make his season debut after missing the first three games due to disciplinary issues. I don't believe his absence sat well with the rest of the team, the offense in particular as they struggled to move the football through the first three weeks of the season. Cox immediately makes the offense more explosive, keeping in mind, the Bobcats already boast a tremendous 1-2 punch at the running back position in De'mondre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison. Defensively, the Bobcats are better than they've shown and here should benefit from having an couple of extra days of practice following last week's dubbing at the hands of a terrific Ragin' Cajuns offense. While they're stepping up in class on paper against a Big Ten opponent here, Northwestern certainly has its issues, on both sides of the football. The Wildcats head into this game sporting a 1-2 record with its lone victory coming against FCS squad Indiana State. In losses to Michigan State and Duke, the Wildcats were marched up and down the field on at will. On offense, the Wildcats have been going with a three-man rotation at quarterback, which only indicates one thing, they're not all that confident in any of the three. The reality is, the Wildcats season began circling the drain before it even got started when RB Cam Porter went down to a season-ending injury in August. Without a dominant ground attack, the Wildcats lack the ability to effectively shorten games, something Ohio will be looking to do here on Saturday. While most teams boast a ton of returning talent following a strange 2020 Covid-tinged season, Northwestern is one of the least experienced teams in the country. This one has the potential to be much closer than most are expecting. Take Ohio (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday.

We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*).

CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Kansas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

One of our biggest plays last week was a fade of Kansas and it worked out perfectly as the Jayhawks were routed in a Friday night road game against Coastal Carolina. Things won't get any easier for Kansas here as it returns home to the site of an inexplicable field-storming from the fans following an ugly 17-14 win over FCS squad South Dakota two weeks ago, hosting the Baylor Bears on Saturday afternoon. Baylor has yet to earn much national attention but with another strong performance here, and perhaps next week at home against Iowa State, it will. The Bears are loaded on both sides of the football. Quarterback was a question mark heading into the season but I like what I've seen from Gerry Bohanon. He hasn't been asked to do too much but has settled in nicely as a game manager, completing 32-of-47 passes for just shy of 400 yards, three touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. The Bears offense is all about the ground game and the do of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner has been electric with both rushing for 100+ yards in each of their first two games this season. Kansas lacks the bulk or talent up front to slow Baylor's dominant rushing attack. On the flip side, the Jayhawks offense has not surprisingly struggled. Dual-threat QB Jake Bean had a couple of nice plays against Coastal Carolina last week but both were with his legs. He's not much of a threat passing the ball and behind a leaky offensive line, he's been running for his life for much of the first two games - sacked six times already. The Bears defense has the experience and talent - strong from the secondary in - to make life miserable on Bean and his rag-tag supporting cast. With a ball-hawking secondary, I don't expect Baylor to leave the back door open in this one. Take Baylor (10*).

My selection is on West Virginia minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

It's been a dream start for Virginia Tech as it opened with a stunning upset win over North Carolina and followed that up with an expected victory over Middle Tennessee State last week. I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Hokies to be that good this season - in fact, I still don't. I look for them to be handed their first loss of the season in Morgantown on Saturday. Last week's game against Middle Tennessee State was actually close at halftime with the Hokies leading 14-7. That narrow lead was only thanks to some inept play-calling from the Blue Raiders, not to mention some key penalties. I don't expect the Mountaineers to suffer from either of those things on Saturday. West Virginia got dropped from most bettors' radars after falling by a 30-24 score as a road favorite against Maryland. I'm higher on the Terps than most so I don't believe that narrow loss was all that devastating. The Mountaineers actually led that game heading into the fourth quarter, only a defensive breakdown on a long fourth quarter touchdown proved to be their downfall. In the perfect tune-up for this contest, West Virginia rolled to a 66-0 rout of LIU-Brooklyn last week. I liked the way the Mountaineers never took their foot off the gas in that victory, even pouring it on with four second half touchdowns after heading into halftime with a seemingly insurmountable 38-0 lead. With a tough road game against Oklahoma looming next week, West Virginia needs to put its best foot forward here and keep its season on track with a win. Meanwhile, even with a loss, everything the Hokies want to accomplish this season would still be ahead of them with each of their next four games coming in Blacksburg. Take West Virginia (9*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina is off to a roaring start to the season, having scored a whopping 101 points through two games - both victories. We won with the Chanticleers in last week's 49-22 rout of Kansas. I don't think they're going to put up 40+ points every week, however, and expect Buffalo to offer some resistance here. The Bulls are coming off a 28-3 drubbing on the road against Nebraska last week. They suffered three inexplicable defensive breakdowns, allowing a trio of long Huskers touchdowns in that contest while Nebraska's other TD came thanks to an interception that set it up at the Buffalo one-yard line. With all of that in mind, I expect a fairly conservative offensive gameplan from the Bulls here as they look to effectively shorten the game by leaning on standout RB Kevin Marks to help orchestrate long, clock-churning drives on offense. As for Coastal Carolina, it got caught being a little too aggressive on defense and allowed a pair of long touchdown runs to Kansas QB Jake Bean last week. It won't have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Buffalo's Kyle VanTrease this week. He has run the ball just twice through two games. VanTrease is more of a game manager than anything else - the Bulls certainly don't want him attempting 50 passes again like he did last week (that had to do with the fact that the Bulls were down big in the second half). Note that one of Buffalo's top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, has been ruled out for this game. He had caught seven passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown this season before leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Cincinnati moneyline over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The importance of this game for both teams can't be understated. Cincinnati came into the season with CFP aspirations and everything is certainly still in front of it after back-to-back blowout wins to open the campaign. This game opens a very difficult two-game stretch that could certainly make or break the Bearcats this season as they'll head to South Bend to face Notre Dame next. The stage certainly isn't too big for Cincinnati. Remember, the Bearcats faced Georgia in what was essentially a road game (albeit in front of just 15,000 fans due to Covid protocols) in the Peach Bowl last season and had control of that contest until the Bulldogs rallied to steal the victory late. Cincinnati is absolutely loaded on both sides of the football. To that point, so is Indiana. The Hoosiers opened the season with a blowout loss on the road against Iowa. That makes getting a win here paramount as it can ill afford to drop another spotlight non-conference game. Indiana caught lightning in a bottle last season, winning six of eight regular season games before falling to Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The Hoosiers lost QB Michael Penix Jr. to a devastating season-ending injury last year. He's back this season but there are still questions whether he's all the way back. Now he faces a fierce Bearcats defense that really has no true weakness. I expect the Hoosiers to be playing from behind at some point in this game, which will force them to open things up and take some shots downfield. That's where I look for the Bearcats secondary to turn the lights out. Cincinnati is going to relish the opportunity to silence a packed house at Memorial Stadium. Keep in mind, the Bearcats are an incredible 33-6 since the start of the 2018 season. This is arguably Luke Fickell's best team since he took over the program and I don't expect to see their CFP dreams get dashed in Bloomington on Saturday. Take Cincinnati moneyline (7*).

CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*).

CFB Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Illinois at 9 pm et on Friday.

We successfully faded Illinois last week in its lopsided loss on the road against Virginia. While it has the benefit of returning home for a primetime game this week, and the opportunity to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play, I look for it to fall short once again. For Maryland, this will be its first conference game of the season after opening with wins over West Virginia and FCS squad Howard. The Terps couldn't have looked much more impressive in those two victories and I really liked what I saw from them in what was admittedly a layup against Howard last week. The Terps poured it on from the opening kick in that one, cruising to a 62-0 rout - a perfect tune-up before playing on a short week here in Champaign. As I noted in last week's analysis of my play against Illinois, it's going to take some time for new head coach Bret Bielema to turn around the program. Most of the key pieces are holdovers from a truly awful Lovie Smith era of Illini football. While Illinois is expected to get QB Brandon Peters back on the field this week, it will still be without RB Mike Epstein. This is a tough matchup against a Terps defense that is loaded in the secondary after going with a bit of a youth movement a year ago. Maryland recorded just two interceptions in five games last season but has already picked off three passes in just two games this year. Offensively, the Terps are rolling and figure to shred a weak Illini defense that just couldn't come up with any key stops against an average Virginia offense last Saturday. Illinois allowed Virginia to score touchdowns on each of its first two drives and the Cavs would have made it three straight scoring drives to open the game were it not for a missed field goal. After scoring a touchdown to close the gap on their first drive of the second half, the Illini defense gave it right back up, and then some, allowing Virginia to march down the field on two consecutive touchdown drives to put the game out of reach. The strength of the Illinois defense is up front but that doesn't bode all that well against a rejuvenated Terps offense that has shown the ability to blow the top off of opposing secondaries, with QB Taulia Tagovailoa throwing for well over 600 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Take Maryland (10*).

My selection is on UL-Lafayette minus the points over Ohio at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are off to somewhat disappointing starts this season but there's a difference. While Ohio is winless at 0-2 - dropping two straight winnable matchups - Louisiana-Lafayette did manage to reach the win column last week, albeit in a closer than expected affair against FCS squad Nicholls State. For the Ragin' Cajuns, everything is still in front of them. Keep in mind, they opened the season ranked in the top-25 before dropping a lopsided decision on the road against Texas. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort, but I think we will see it on Thursday night in this nationally-televised affair against Ohio. The Ragin' Cajuns return plenty of talent from last year's team - on both sides of the football. We've yet to see their ground game really get rolling but they are expected to have offensive lineman Carlos Rubio back from injury on Friday and I do think it's only a matter of time before they start finding some rushing success. The passing game is fine with fifth-year QB Levi Lewis at the helm and a wealth of talent at the wide receiver position. Even without top-two WR Jalen Williams making a single catch, Lewis still threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week's 27-24 win. The defense is hoping to have standout LB Ferrod Gardner back on the field after he missed last week's game due to an ankle injury but even if he can't go there's plenty of depth at the position. I'm making this play assuming he won't be able to play but if he can we'll consider it a bonus. Ohio desperately needed a win over FCS squad Duquesne last week but fell short. It's been a miserable start to the post-Frank Solich era and I don't see the Bobcats turning it around here. The fact that one of their biggest gamebreakers on offense, WR Isiah Cox, remains suspended for disciplinary reasons can't sit well with a team that appears in desperate need of a spark. The Bobcats have a tremendous 1-2 punch in the backfield with RBs De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison but their effectiveness is limited when they can't find a way to build a lead. They scored a kick return touchdown to open last week's game against Duquesne and then added another TD on their next drive. From there, they didn't find the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The stagnant nature of the Ohio offense was really nothing new as it didn't find the end zone even once in a season-opening 29-9 loss to Syracuse. That's the same Orange squad that just lost 17-7 against Rutgers in its home-opener last week. While the line may appear fairly steep in this game, I simply feel that Louisiana-Lafayette is considerably better than it has shown through two games and will take full advantage of this spotlight matchup against a reeling Ohio squad on Thursday night. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday.

This has generally been a low-scoring series with six of the last nine meetings between these two in-state rivals totaling 45 points or less. While I'm not expecting a true defensive slugfest on Saturday night in Provo, I do think this one will stay 'under' the total. Utah put up 40 points in last week's win over FCS squad Weber State. Once the Utes offense got rolling, the Wildcats simply had no answers in that contest. While BYU is expected to take a step back defensively after a tremendous 2020 campaign, it certainly held up ok in its season-opener last week, not allowing Arizona to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. The Cougars secondary is thought to be a weakness but I believe that can be negated by an improved pass rush, which recorded four sacks in last week's victory. Also note that the return of strong safety Chaz Ah-You is key after he missed last season. He was extremely active in last week's contest, seemingly playing all over the field and helping to slow the Arizona offense. I'm not sure how much success the Cougars offense can have against a Utes defense that is loaded from the secondary in. Note that BYU QB Jaren Hall threw for just 198 yards in last week's victory with 67 of those yards coming in a single play. Hall has some mobility and ran for 36 yards in the opener. Keep in mind, he racked up 39 yards on a single run. The Utes are terrific at the linebacker position and should be able to keep Hall from breaking off too many big runs. I do think BYU's offense can go on some long, clock-churning drives in this one, which certainly helps our cause. I simply question how many of those drives will end with 7's on the board. Note that standout BYU WR Gunner Romney is currently listed as doubtful for this game after suffering an injury last week. His ability to stretch the field would certainly be missed if he can't go, although I'm actually making this play under the assumption that he does play as there have been whispers of that throughout the week. Take the under (9*).

CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Connecticut at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We cashed a ticket fading the Connecticut Huskies in their season-opener against Fresno State and probably should have gone back to the well again last week as they fell in their home-opener against FCS squad Holy Cross. As I noted at the start of the season, UConn was ravaged by transfers out of the program when it was announced it would sit out the entire 2020 campaign - and it's not as if the talent was there to begin with following a dismal 2019 season. Here, I expect the Huskies to get rolled by a good Purdue Boilermakers squad that is flying under the radar a little bit at this early stage of the season. Purdue shook off some early rust on offense to get past Oregon State by a 30-21 score last week. In that game, Purdue scored a first quarter touchdown before being held to three field goals in the second and third quarters. The good news is, the Boilers offense got on track in the fourth quarter, putting together two touchdown drives. Purdue's pass-catchers looked outstanding as that game progressed with David Bell and Payne Durham combining to catch 15 passes for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both coming from super tight end Durham. RB Zander Horvath was as advertised despite only getting 21 carries as he gained 81 yards on the ground and found the end zone once. QB Jack Plummer took care of the football and threw for over 300 yards, essentially all that was asked from him in that contest. We saw Connecticut somewhat surprisingly put together three first half touchdown drives last week. The Huskies added a third quarter touchdown score but from there, couldn't do anything positive in the game's final 18 minutes, held off the scoreboard entirely in an eventual 10-point loss. Despite putting up 28 points, QB Jack Zergiotis completed just 17-of-41 passes with just one completion going for more than 15 yards. Now the Huskies will need to contend with a much tougher opponent, noting that the Boilers held Oregon State out of the end zone for a 41-minute stretch in last week's victory and should feast in Storrs on Saturday afternoon. Purdue gave up its share of big plays through the air against the Beavers last week but UConn isn't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This matchup produced a very low-scoring result last year with Oklahoma State prevailing by a 16-7 score. That was a surprising outcome. A relatively low-scoring contest here shouldn't be. Tulsa dropped a 19-17 decision against Cal-Davis in its season-opener last week. In that game, the Golden Hurricane didn't manage to find the end zone until the final five minutes of the first half and that was a clock-churning 12-play drive that included a successful fourth down conversion. From there, Tulsa didn't score another touchdown until the latter half of the third quarter. On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane allowed an early touchdown inside the game's first four minutes but then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. That's not surprising as the Tulsa defense was outstanding last season and gets nine starters back from that unit. This will obviously be a tougher test against Oklahoma State but certainly not an insurmountable one. The Cowboys weren't great on offense in 2020 and have to replace a number of key contributors. Oklahoma State was involved in a low-scoring win against an FCS opponent in Missouri State last week. The Cowboys actually scored three early touchdowns in that contest - all coming inside the first five minutes of the second quarter. From there, they managed just a single field goal, indicating the potentially inconsistent nature of this offense. The defense was tremendous, however, not allowing a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter, when they held a comfortable 23-9 lead. Oklahoma State is strong from the secondary in on the defensive side of the football. Seven starters return to the unit from a group that finished tops in the entire nation in third down stops a year ago. They'll give up enough yardage for Tulsa to orchestrate some clock-eating drives, but I don't expect a ton of big plays from the Golden Hurricane in this one. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Illinois at 11 am et on Saturday.

Whatever positive momentum that Illinois had built in its season-opening upset win over Nebraska is gone after last week's 37-30 loss to UTSA - the Roadrunners first ever victory over a Big Ten program. The Illini are going to get better under head coach Bret Bielema but it's not going to happen overnight. The defense still has the fingerprints of Lovie Smith all over it and that was evident in last Saturday's loss to UTSA. In that game, Illinois allowed two touchdowns before the second quarter was even four minutes old. From there, the Roadrunners would put together five more scoring drives, including a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns when the Illini defense had a chance to rise up and take over the game. Offensively, the Illini weren't able to find the end zone until nearly six minutes into the second quarter. QB Artur Sitkowski bombed away for 42 pass attempts, competing only 22 of those for just 266 yards. For Bielema's offense to work the way it should he needs stability at the running back position. RB Mike Epstein looked like he could be that guy but after leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury he's now expected to miss this Saturday's game as well. Virginia got the perfect tune-up for this one, rolling to a 43-0 victory over FCS squad William & Mary last week. The offense sputtered a bit in the early going but once it found it's rhythm it proved difficult to stop, scoring five touchdowns over the game's final three quarters. QB Brennan Armstrong was effective, throwing for 339 yards on 21 completions and did a nice job of taking care of the football, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions. The emergence of former Mississippi State QB and now used predominantly at wide receiver and out of the backfield, Keytaon Thompson was a factor, running the ball four times for 43 yards while also catching five passes for 66 yards. This is a Cavaliers offense that has the potential to be dynamic, particularly against weaker defensive opponents such as the Illini. While Illinois does boast a solid pass rush, Cavs QB Armstrong has some mobility and I expect him to be able to stretch out some plays and ultimately take advantage of a weak Illini secondary. Defensively, the jury is still out as to how much better Virginia will be after a tough 2020 campaign. There's certainly nowhere to go but up and it was a positive sign that the longest play they gave up last week went for just 20 yards, despite the fact that William & Mary figured to be taking some chances down big. The Cavs didn't force a single fumble or interception in the game but I do expect turnovers to play a role in the outcome on Saturday against Illinois, presumably in Virginia's favor. Take Virginia (9*).

My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Boise State at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

I'm higher on UTEP than most but this is admittedly a tough matchup as the Miners head to Boise to take on a Broncos squad that will be in a foul mood after a blown opportunity in their opener at UCF. While the Miners have already lost RB Deion Hankins to injury, they may have found a star in the making in Ronald Awatt. Since taking over the starting role from Hankins he has ripped off 200 yards and two touchdowns on just 30 carries. With the fantastic WR tandem of Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, the Miners also have the potential to blow the top off Boise's secondary, which lost its two starting cornerbacks from last season. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Boise secondary that came up with only three interceptions all of last year. The problem for UTEP here will be trying to slow down an explosive Boise State offense that just hung 31 points on UCF. Like Boise, UTEP's defensive weakness is in the secondary where it doesn't boast much depth and managed to come up with only two picks all of last year. Both of those came from Duron Lowe, who is no longer with the team. This should be a 'name your score' type of affair for the Broncos and I look for them to go up-tempo in an effort to negate UTEP's solid pass rush. Take the over (10*).

CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Coastal Carolina minus the points over Kansas at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I absolutely love the way this one sets up for Coastal Carolina as despite its Top 25 ranking (which is well-deserved by the way) will get a rare opportunity to perform in front of a national audience, against a Power Five conference opponent, no less. I expect the Chanticleers to take full advantage. Kansas football has been a disaster for years now. To understand the state of the program, look no further than last week's game against FCS squad South Dakota. The Jayhawks won that game by a 17-14 score. At the end of the game the fans stormed the field. Yikes. Note that Kansas didn't manage to even score in that game until the final 30 seconds of the first half. That was only thanks to South Dakota handing it excellent field position due to a poor punt late in the first half. From there, the Jayhawks reach the end zone again until the final 1:10 of the fourth quarter. Now Kansas heads on the road to face a Coastal Carolina squad that laid waste to FCS foe Citadel in their season-opener last week. A stark contrast to Kansas, the Chanticleers went full throttle offensively from start to finish in that game. They were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter and entered halftime with a 31-0 cushion. They didn't allow a single score until the game was already well in hand, up 38-0 with just over six minutes remaining in the third quarter. I liked the way Coastal Carolina continued to pour it on, even scoring a touchdown in the game's final three minutes. This is a Chanticleers squad that is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football and eager to prove that last season was no fluke, not Covid-assisted. Expect a rout on Friday night. Take Coastal Carolina (10*).

CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday.

I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this contest on Sunday. Tennessee State is beginning a new era with a completely new coaching staff led by Tennessee Titans legend Eddie George and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. There are plenty of kinks to be worked out in what is expected to be a run-heavy offensive attack, however. In seven Spring games, the Tigers topped out at 26 points, scoring 20 points or less in five of those seven contests. Now they face a Grambling defense that was terrific in 2019 but failed to deliver in the Spring, allowing 30+ points in three of four games. Expect a better defensive performance from Grambling now that it has had a full Fall camp under its belt. Similar to Tennessee State, the Grambling offense couldn't get much going in the Spring, scoring a grand total of 66 points in four games. Also like TSU, Grambling will look to control the clock and generally look to run the ball first on offense. There's just not a ton of explosiveness in the Tigers passing game. This contest will certainly have more eyes on it than usual for an early season FCS clash as it's nationally-televised on NFL Network. Don't count on a whole lot of scoring. Take the under (8*).

CFB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over New Mexico State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

We successfully faded New Mexico State in its first real game action since the 2019 season last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as it takes another step up in class in its first road test of the season against San Diego State.

The Aggies did little right in last week's 30-3 drubbing at the hands of UTEP. There's little reason to expect another week of practice will change anything. The questions start at quarterback where neither Jonah Johnson or Weston Eget appear to be the answer under center. The duo combined to complete a woeful 9-of-33 passes for 89 yards in last week's lopsided loss.

The ground game didn't work either as no NMSU back ran for more than 4.1 yards per carry. Backup QB Weston Eget had the team's longest rush of the game and that went for just 19 yards in garbage time.

The final score actually could have been much uglier were it not for UTEP committing a whopping 12 penalties for 140 yards. Penalties were really the only way that NMSU was able to move the football down the field. The Aggies did manage two interceptions as well but that's not something we can bank on again this week as they face an Aztecs squad that is likely to pound away with its elite ground attack for much of the night.

The Aztecs missed playing in a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last season with an injury to RB Greg Bell essentially derailing their campaign. Bell is back this year, along with five other players that have found their way onto the Reese's Senior Bowl Watch List.

While San Diego State isn't exactly set at quarterback with Jordon Brookshire - last year's fourth-stringer at the position - winning the job. All indications are that Brookshire won the job convincingly and the Senior QB will be afforded a favorable matchup to open the season here, noting that the Aggies didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to UTEP. Brookshire has plenty of talent around him with an elite backfield not to mention all seven leading wide receivers from a year ago back in the mix and TE Daniel Bellinger, who could very well have an NFL career ahead of him.

This is obviously a steep number but I'm not sure the oddsmakers or the betting majority realize just how bad this Aggies squad is - not yet, at least. Last week's opponent, UTEP, entered the season hoping that it could sneak into a Bowl game and a win over NMSU was imperative. San Diego State on the other hand, has loftier goals, believing it can contend for a Mountain West Conference title after last year's disappointment. Look for the Aztecs to win in convincing fashion in Week 1. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Syracuse at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Most are calling this a 'must-win' game for Dino Babers and the Syracuse Orange. But as we all know, motivation is rarely enough. I simply feel this is a favorable matchup for an Ohio squad that only got to play three games last season. The Bobcats return plenty of talent on both sides of the football. I really like the way they're set up at the skill positions on offense. Kurtis Rourke is expected to start at quarterback but former UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will play a role as well. Keep in mind, Rogers was able to learn the Bobcats offense last year, getting into their three games and enjoying some success both on the ground and through the air. The running back situation is even better with De'Montre Tuggle and O'Shaan Allison poised to take another step forward. Tim Albin is the new head coach but he's by no means new to the program as he served as the offensive coordinator. He won't change much from what legendary now-retired head coach Frank Solich was doing and that's a positive thing. Syracuse has two capable quarterbacks but Tommy DeVito has yet to show the consistency needed to succeed at this level (offensive line issues have certainly played a role) and Garrett Shrader transfers in from Mississippi State and is still learning the offense. The Orange defense was awful a year ago. Plenty of key pieces are back but the secondary still looks like it could be a weak spot and Ohio has the receivers to take advantage. Syracuse obviously won't go away quietly in this game but I believe the betting marketplace in general is sleeping on this Ohio squad, which has a lot of winnable games on its 2021 schedule. This happens to be one of them. Take Ohio (9*).

My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over USC at 5 pm et on Saturday.

We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Spartans Week 0 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back San Jose State as it hits the road for the first time this season, making the trip to Los Angeles to face the mighty USC Trojans.

This Spartans team is the real deal. They pulled off a stunner in the Mountain West Conference Championship last year, defeating Boise State with relative ease. They have unfinished business to take care off this season, however, as they couldn't quite wrap up a perfect season, falling to Ball State in the Arizona Bowl.

San Jose State is loaded with returning talent on both sides of the football QB Nick Starkel is back to lead the offense with speedy RB Tyler Nevens in the backfield. Both went off in last week's rout, with Starkel throwing for just shy of 400 yards and four touchdowns (to go along with one interception) without barely breaking a sweat and Nevens gaining 91 yards and a score on the ground on just 12 carries. The wide receiving corps had some question marks heading into last week's opener, more specifically who would step up and pick up the slack with two of last year's top targets gone. All that group did against Southern Utah was explode with four different receivers picking up individual game-long catches of 40+ yards.

Needless to say, the Spartans will be facing a much tougher challenge this week as they face power program USC. It is worth noting, however, that the Trojans are coming off a bad year (by their standards) defensively and have to replace a number of key parts. I'm just not convinced we're going to see USC suddenly flip the switch and become a dominant defense again here in Week 1 of the 2021 season.

San Jose State's defense was incredible a year ago and gets 10 starters back from that team. We saw flashes of brilliance again in Week 0 as the Spartans 'D' manhandled an overmatched Jaguars offense. Again, this is a completely different situation heading out on the road to face an explosive Trojans offense. With that being said, I believe San Jose State has it all on the defensive side of the football and can at the very least minimize the effectiveness of this loaded Trojans offense, that like the defense, does have some needs entering the new season.

To me, the Spartans have the look of a team that's poised for big things this year but it can't go out and get drilled by USC if it wants to reach its loftiest goals. You could see in the second half of last week's contest that San Jose State had already moved on to this game mentally and I believe that drubbing of Southern Utah serves as the perfect tune-up heading into this showdown. While an outright upset certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the Spartans and expect a competitive affair throughout. Take San Jose State (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected.

Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here.

Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one.

Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back.

Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest.

Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*).

CFB on BTN Game of the Year. My selection is on Rutgers minus the points over Temple at 3 pm et on Saturday.

NOTE: This game was moved from Thursday to Saturday. We'll stick with our original play on Rutgers.

Bettors are generally 'Rutgers-averse' as in they're not all that interested in backing the Scarlet Knights thanks to years of futility in Piscataway. Last season, the Knights actually made some headway despite a 3-6 overall record as they were highly-competitive and could have just as easily won six or seven games. Now, with their sights set on a possible Bowl game, I look for the Knights to get off to a strong start in their home opener against Temple.

The Owls were one of the weakest teams in the nation in a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season. They finished 10th in the AAC, averaging just 20 points per game. The hope is that Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis can be the answer at quarterback. He was the opening day starter for the mighty Bulldogs last year but struggled against Arkansas and only appeared in two more games before deciding to transfer. Mathis got that season-opening start due to necessity only as the Bulldogs were dealing with injuries at the position. Now he needs to learn a new offense and doesn't exactly have a cupboard full of weapons to work with.

Re-al Mitchell could eat into some of Mathis' snaps. Keep in mind, Mitchell couldn't win the starting job last year, even after Anthony Russo went down to injury. Standout RB Re'Man Davis is gone. The owls coaching staff is saying all the right things when it comes to the Owls backfield options but they're also talking about a running back by committee approach. That tells me there's no true standout in the backfield entering the season.

Defensively, the Owls got torched throughout the 2020 season. Now they lose their sack leader from a year ago, along with three defensive tackles. Two corners are gone as well, from a group that couldn't come up with any big plays with just three interceptions all season.

Rutgers on the other hand is loaded with returning talent on the offensive side of the football. I like the stability and continuity of this group which will be led by QB Noah Vedral. He was asked to do a little too much last year and ultimately threw just nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. I expect a different story to unfold this year as he can let the likes of RB Isaih Pacheco and the outstanding WR duo of Bo Melton and Aron Cruickshank go to work. The o-line was an issue a year ago but gets all five starters back and there's really nowhere to go but up. This is a favorable matchup for that unit to ease its way into the new season as the Owls aren't likely to have a dominant pass rush.

There are a couple of key losses for the Scarlet Knights to deal with on defense but they return the bulk of the unit that did enough last season to provide some optimism entering 2021. The Knights actually scooped one of Temple's best defenders from a year ago in the transfer portal in Ifeanyi Maijeh. He might not even earn a starting job which tells you that the Knights boast plenty of talent on the defensive line. They're loaded at linebacker and have something to build on in the secondary with a pair of corners that earned honorable mentions on the All-Big Ten list last season. I expect this defense to make progress this season, and like the o-line, it gets a favorable opening week matchup against a Temple offense that isn't likely to come out firing on all cylinders.

If Rutgers is going to make a run at a Bowl game, this is a game it needs to win. With Syracuse and Delaware on deck there's a real chance for the Scarlet Knights to get off to a strong start before the schedule really toughens up in late September. I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being represented with this line sitting under two touchdowns (at the time of writing). Take Rutgers (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday.

I believe the North Carolina defense has the chance to be good this season, really good. The headline-grabber is the loss of outstanding LB Chazz Surratt. However, virtually the entire starting defense outside of Surratt returns and I like the way the Tar Heels are built from the back in, with an outstanding secondary, a loaded linebacking corps and a solid defensive line that might give up some yards on the ground, but will put enough pressure on Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister to make him uncomfortable for much of the night on Friday.

The Hokies offense went as far as RB Khalil Herbert took them last year, as he ran for just under 1,200 yards - good for more than eight yards per rush. He's gone and now someone has to pick up the slack. Virginia Tech has a couple of excellent wide receivers in Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner but will Burmeister have enough time in the pocket to find them downfield? That's a big question as the Hokies lost two of their best offensive linemen to transfers, not to mention Christian Darrisaw to the NFL. Expect to see Virginia Tech use its short to intermediate passing game to try to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this one in hopes of essentially shortening the game and keeping the ball out of the hands of the explosive North Carolina offense.

The Tar Heels hung 56 points on the Hokies in last year's meeting. Needless to say, they'll have Virginia Tech's attention here in Week 1. The Hokies added Jordan Williams from Clemson and should at the very least be better defensively than they were at the tail-end of last season when they quite simply came unglued. They'll likely only be able to keep the Tar Heels offense at bay for so long, but that should be enough as we're dealing with a lofty total in the mid-60's at the time of writing.

North Carolina's offense should be every bit as explosive as it was a year ago, even after losing a host of key performers to the NFL. It might just take a bit of time. Again, this total assumes the Tar Heels are going to come out in midseason form. Even if that is the case, it generally takes two to topple a total this high this early in the season. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday.

A trip to Blacksburg isn't nearly as daunting as it once was. I love the way this one sets up for the Tar Heels who have their sights set on some lofty goals once again this season.

North Carolina loses plenty of talent to the NFL - that's simply the sign of a great college team. The best programs don't need to rebuild, they simply reload, and I think that's the case with Mack Brown's Tar Heels.

QB Sam Howell is back to run the offense and despite losing a host of talent at the running back and wide receiver positions, I expect this high-octane attack to keep humming along. This is obviously a big season for Howell as he's likely to be a highly-touted NFL draft pick next spring. First things first, he looks to guide this Tar Heels squad to another stellar campaign. While plenty of names have moved on, the cupboard is by no means bare. RB Ty Chandler transfers in from Tennessee and should run wild behind an offensive line that was terrific at opening up holes for the ground game last season and returns all five starters this year. There are questions at the wide receiver position but this is very much a 'plug-and-play' type offense and there's a host of talented receivers that have simply been waiting for their opportunity to step out of the shadows and into the spotlight. It shouldn't take long for this offense to start piling up points.

The Tar Heels defense loses standout LB Chazz Surratt but that's about it. There's talent and experience all over the field. While the North Carolina offense gets all the press, the defense can play as well and I expect it to come out and make a statement against an overmatched Hokies offense here.

Virginia Tech has managed to go just 19-18 SU over the last three seasons under head coach Justin Fuente. Keep in mind, the Hokies went 19-8 in Fuente's first two seasons as he reaped the benefits of Frank Beamer recruits.

If it weren't for standout RB Khalil Herbert, the Hokies probably wouldn't have won five games last year. He's gone so now someone else will need to step up. Unfortunately, the Hokies don't have the benefit of a transfer like Chandler for the Tar Heels. The biggest issue might be on the offensive line where Virginia Tech lost two of its best starters to the transfer portal. It's going to take some time for the new look o-line to come together - the problem is the Hokies won't have the benefit of time here in Week 1 as the Tar Heels are capable of scoring in bunches.

Virginia Tech's defense returns just six starters from a year ago. This simply isn't the same feared Hokies defense from the Frank Beamer era. Last season, Virginia Tech gave up just shy of 450 total yards per game and 32 points per contest. I'll admit, it's likely we'll see an improved defense here in 2021. Jordan Williams transfers in from Clemson to anchor the defensive line but there are still holes that I believe the Tar Heels will be able to expose over the course of four quarters on Friday.

All of North Carolina's road games this season are winnable, with the toughest test coming at Notre Dame on the final Saturday in October. If the Tar Heels are going to reach their goals, they need to get off to a fast start and I'm certain the Hokies will have their full attention this week. Take North Carolina (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th.

I'm not anticipating a shootout as UTEP and New Mexico State look to start their 2021 campaigns on a positive note on opening night.

The Miners offense struggled for the most part last season. It does bring plenty of continuity to the table here with virtually all of the same faces returning but an offensive explosion in the season-opener might be a little too much to ask. I do think we'll see UTEP find plenty of success putting together long, clock-churning drives as it matches up well against the New Mexico State defense. With that being said, priority one will be taking care of the football after finishing in the bottom-13 of the nation with over two turnovers per game last season.

On the flip side, the Miners defensive front should be able to camp out in the Aggies backfield in this one. The strength of UTEP's defense certainly lies in its pass rush and while New Mexico State has brought in some help on the offensive line, it's going to take time to come together as a unit. Here, with two unproven (and turnover-prone in the case of junior Jonah Johnson) quarterbacks, I expect to see a relatively safe gameplan from the New Mexico State offense with perhaps a heavy dose of its 1-2 backfield tandem of Alex Escobar and O'Maury Samuels.

As is often the case, we're dealing with a high early season total based largely on the potential of both offenses rather than what we're actually going to see on the field. This is actually a critical Week 1 affair for both teams as they hope to avoid setting a negative tone with a tough schedule ahead. Take the under (8*).

College Football Game of the Month. My selection is on UTEP minus the points over New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th.

C-USA media members have the UTEP Miners slated to finish in last place in the West Division this season. I believe that the potential is there for a much better campaign, however.

The Miners haven't had much recent success to boast about. They've gone a miserable 5-27 going back to the 2018 season but three of those victories came in eight games last season. Here, they have an excellent opportunity to get off to a fast start with this road tilt against New Mexico State followed by their home opener against FCS squad Bethune-Cookman. This is a team that has lofty goals this season, believing it can exceed expectations and reach a Bowl game.

Note that UTEP was favored in only three games all of last season and won all three by an average margin of 14 points.

UTEP returns the bulk of the squad that won those three games last season. On offense, there's finally some continuity with QB Gavin Hardison back under center. In the backfield, the potential is there for a breakout campaign from RB Deion Hankins who returns after rushing for nearly 600 yards and nine scores as a redshirt freshman last season. The Miners also have an excellent 1-2 punch at wide receiver with Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett. There are questions on the offensive line after a shaky 2020 campaign, but with plenty of experience returning there's reason for optimism.

Defensively, the Miners draw a favorable matchup against an Aggies offense that has been punchless over the last couple of seasons (keep in mind New Mexico State didn't play a single game in 2020 due to Covid). UTEP has a true star on the outside in DE Praise Amaewhule, who finds himself on the Bednarik Award Watch List for the nation's best defensive player. He could quickly climb up the NFL Draft board should he repeat or improve on his incredible 2020 performance. UTEP's secondary could be leaky early on, but this is a matchup where I expect its pass rush to give the Aggies little time to get the football down the field for big plays. The Miners are set on the defensive line and should devour a New Mexico State offensive line that lacks continuity and will need time to come together as a unit.

There's a QB competition ongoing for New Mexico State with junior Jonah Johnson trying to hold off Weston Eget. Eget was more effective in the team's first of two Spring games against non-FBS opponents but injured his ankle early on and missed crucial practice time as a result. Johnson struggled against the likes of Dixie State and Tarleton State and I question how he will perform should he get the nod against the Miners vaunted pass rush here. While the Aggies should have a solid backfield, again this is a tough opening matchup against a good defensive line.

Defensively, the Aggies allowed their two FCS opponents in the Spring to rush for over five yards per carry. Meanwhile, they failed to come up with a single interception. While I realize they've had plenty of practice time since then and those two results don't tell the entire story, this is a defensive unit that is unrecognizable compared to the 2019 edition and I simply feel it's going to take time to round into form. Take UTEP (10*).

CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th.

This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively.

Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss.

Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs.

The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here.

Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio State and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday.

I'll keep it simple with this play. Alabama finished number one in the nation in points per play this season and it wasn't all that close. The Crimson Tide should score at will in this game - even against an elite Ohio State defense. The Tide simply have too much NFL level talent on offense to be slowed in this game. However, we're talking about a matchup with a single-digit pointspread, and I do believe Justin Fields and the Buckeyes offense can keep pace for much of this game. Ohio State checks in ninth in the country in points per play and should be able to make some headway against an Alabama defense that is always exceptional but certainly not invincible. We're dealing with a high total in this one but it's in the 70's for a reason. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and N.C. State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kentucky scored 41 points in its most recent game - a 23-point rout of South Carolina. The Wildcats scored 30+ points on three different occasions but all three of those games came against non-Bowl teams. Here, the Wildcats will be in tough against an N.C. State defense that ranks 51st in the nation in points allowed per play and 42nd in sack percentage. Of course, Kentucky's calling card is its defense - that's been the case for a number of years. This is a manageable matchup for the Wildcats defense, noting that they rank 49th in the nation in points allowed per play. Both teams will give up their share of rush yardage but that should only end itself to long, clock-churning drives on Saturday afternoon. Note that Kentucky QB Terry Wilson threw more than a single touchdown in a game just once this season. N.C. State QB Bailey Hockman threw more than two touchdowns on two occasions but those performances came against two weak defenses in Florida State and Syracuse. Take the under (10*).

CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Cincinnati has gone undefeated this season and we've been along for the ride in a few of those victories but here I believe the Bearcats are going to be in tough trying to keep this game close against Georgia. If you're not going to come up with big, explosive plays on offense, you're not likely going to hang around against the Bulldogs. Georgia's defense is just too good to string together long, methodical touchdown drives against but unfortunately that's been the Bearcats M.O. this season. In their only two losses against Florida and Alabama, Georgia gave up a number of long touchdown runs and passes - Cincinnati just isn't likely to display that same sort of quick score ability. Meanwhile, we saw Georgia's offense really round into form down the stretch. While it will face a tough challenge here, it's not anything it hasn't faced in the SEC this season. The Bearcats are a talented team across the board, but boasts few players that have NFL potential. Georgia, on the other hand, is loaded with NFL-level talent and poised to end its 2020 campaign on a high note on New Year's Day in its own backyard (this game will be played in Atlanta). Take Georgia (10*).

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Ball State at 2 pm et on Thursday.

San Jose State has proven to be an underrated team all season long and there's little reason to expect it to finally get tripped up on Thursday against MAC opponent Ball State. The Spartans exceeded expectations at every turn this season, culminating with a first ever MWC championship over perennial winner Boise State. I really liked the way QB Nick Starkel stepped up in that contest, proving he is more than just a game manager by throwing for 453 yards and three touchdowns. Keep in mind, earlier in the season he also threw for 467 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico. I absolutely love the versatility of this Spartans squad as they're able to win a slugfest or a shootout. Ball State blindsided conference front-runner Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, although that victory had a lot to do with the Bulls losing do-it-all RB Jaret Patterson to injury in that contest. Outside of Buffalo, I didn't find the MAC overly impressive this season. Ball State does a lot of things ok but is by no means an elite offensive or defensive squad. Look for Cardinals QB Drew Plitt to be under duress all afternoon long and for the Spartans to force a key turnover or two that ultimately puts this game away. Take San Jose State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Wednesday.

I'm not sure how excited either of these teams are about playing in the Mayo Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. With that being said, I'm expecting a battle in the trenches of sorts as the Badgers line up against the Demon Deacons. Wisconsin of course owns one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 12th in points per play allowed. The Badgers check in 16th in yards per rush allowed and 12th in yards per pass attempt given up. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman suffered some regression this season, throwing more than two touchdown passes in a game just once - that performance coming in a wild 59-53 loss to North Carolina. He does do a nice job of taking care of the football, having thrown just one interception this season. I see this game playing out with the Demon Deacons finding some success moving the football against a tough Badgers defense but not finishing many drives with 7's on the board. Likewise, the Badgers should be able to find some running room against a weak Demon Deacons run defense but they certainly didn't show the ability during the regular season to score with any consistency and are particularly limited in their passing offense with QB Graham Mertz asked to be little more than a game manager, having completed more than 20 passes in a game only once. Take the under (10*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Miami at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday.

This game is being pegged as a potential offensive shootout. I'm not so sure that's how it will play out on the field, however. Oklahoma State was supposed to contend for a Big 12 Championship this season but a nagging ankle injury to RB Chuba Hubbard helped derail its hopes, and now Hubbard has opted-out of the Cheez-It Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the Cowboys offensive cupboard is by no means bare without Hubbard, I expect them to have their work cut out for them here. That's mainly because QB Spencer Sanders has failed to impress in his sophomore campaign. He threw more than a single touchdown pass just twice in eight games during the regular season and threw at least one interception in six of those contests. He's likely to be under duress for much of this game with Miami ranking a respectable 39th in the nation in sack percentage with that ranking rising to ninth over its last three games. Yes, the Canes have struggled against the run, which is the Cowboys strength, but here I'm not sure they'll respect Sanders enough to stray from stacking the box and forcing him to beat them through the air. On the flip side, the Miami offense showed flashes of brilliance with transfer QB D'Eriq King this season, but now face an underrated Oklahoma State defense that ranks ninth in the country in sack percentage and 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Note that Miami RB Cam'Ron Harris ran for exactly 134 yards in each of his first two games this season but never reached those heights again, topping out at 96 rush yards over his last eight contests while being held to 63 rush yards or less in seven of those. It doesn't take many stalled drives to stay 'under' a lofty total such as this one. Both offenses are capable of moving the football but long, clock-churning drives can work in our favor in this case. Take the under (10*).

CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Houston at 3:30 pm et on Thursday.

This one is being pegged as a potential shootout between the Rainbow Warriors and Cougars - after all, both programs are known for their high-octane offenses and what else would we want to see on Christmas Eve other than a wild, high-scoring affair? With that being said, I believe this lofty total will prove too high. Hawaii checks in ranked 88th in the nation in points per play, struggling against any defense with a pulse this season. While Houston could be undermanned due to ineligibility and opt-outs, it still possesses a defense that ranks an impressive eighth in the country in sack percentage. Meanwhile, the Warriors offense ranked a miserable 92nd in the nation in QB sacked percentage this season. It's certainly worth noting that the Cougars are expected to miss arguably their best offensive player in WR Marquez Stevenson, who has apparently elected to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the cupboard is by no means bare for the Cougars on offense, QB Clayton Tune can't be asked to do it all. Hawaii actually finished the season ranked a respectable 39th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. I suspect we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game, ultimately keeping it 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Florida Atlantic plus the points over Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Many will make the case that Florida Atlantic doesn't belong in a Bowl game at all after an embarrassing 45-31 loss to Southern Miss in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Owls were essentially playing for nothing in that game with only a (very) outside chance at reaching the C-USA Championship Game. FAU had started the season 5-1 before dropping its final two contests. Still, the Owls check in ranked an impressive 7th in the nation in points allowed per play and I believe they can do enough offensively to shorten this game and let their defense take care of the rest. Memphis didn't have a banner year by its own program's standards, losing three games to finish 3rd in the AAC. QB Brady White topped out at two touchdown passes in his last four games and took a ton of sacks and threw a bunch of interceptions over the course of the season. Meanwhile, the Tigers ground attack wasn't all that dynamic at all, ranking 97th in the country in yards per rush. Look for the Owls to do what they can to muck this one up and ultimately stay inside the number. Take Florida Atlantic (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Memphis hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing here in 2020, ranking 59th in the country in offensive touchdowns per game and 72nd in yards per play. Here, the Tigers will face a Florida Atlantic squad that checks in an impressive seventh in the nation in points per play allowed. There's little reason to expect a real offensive breakthrough from the Owls offense in this one. Their calling card has been controlling the football (and the clock) and leaving it up to their defense to take care of the rest. The Owls check in 109th and 110th respectively in points allowed per play and offensive touchdowns per game. On the flip side, only two teams have allowed fewer offensive touchdowns per game this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech at 3 pm et on Wednesday.

Bettors are generally quick to play the 'over' in most Bowl games and the New Orleans Bowl on the fast track at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome has been no exception over the years. With that being said, this has obviously been a unique season and here we have two teams that labored offensively through much of the campaign and are dealing with question marks all over the field. One thing we do know is that Georgia Southern will focus on running the football and eating clock - likely with its third-string quarterback. I'm not convinced many of the Eagles offensive drives will turn into 7's on the board, however, and Louisiana Tech's offense simply doesn't match up well with a Georgia Southern defense that ranks 33rd in the country in points allowed per play. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Tulane at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Nevada was red hot prior to its stunning loss at Hawaii on November 29th. The Wolf Pack had won five straight games to open the season including a huge victory over San Diego State in a nationally-televised game a week earlier. From there, Nevada stumbled, dropping two of its final three games overall, clearing its bandwagon in the process. So perhaps it's not all that surprising that the Wolf Pack have been installed as short underdogs in this Bowl matchup with Tulane. I still feel Nevada has plenty of upside and will be up for this game on the familiar blue turf in Boise. Tulane had an up and down season, ultimately going 6-5 overall. The Green Wave didn't do anything particularly well, although they did rank a respectable 38th in the nation in points allowed per play. The problem is, Nevada finished 10 spots ahead of them in that category. While the Green Wave did put up better offensive numbers, they also faced a schedule littered with sieve-like defenses in the AAC. Look for Nevada to finish its 2020 campaign strong. Take Nevada (10*).

My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Appalachian State at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

Appalachian State had high hopes entering this season but I don't think playing in the Myrtle Beach Bowl was near the top of its priority list. Meanwhile, North Texas is playing with 'house money' reaching a Bowl game despite a 4-5 overall record. I look for the Mean Green Eagles to put up a fight on Monday afternoon. I do think North Texas has a path to victory in this game with a potent offense and a defense that gets after opposing quarterbacks, ranking 23rd in the nation in sack percentage this season. By contrast, Appalachian State's vaunted defense ranked just 70th in that category. Offensively, UNT is explosive, ranking 28th in the country in yards per pass attempt and 21st in yards per rush. I will admit that the Eagles faced a weaker schedule than Appalachian State but I don't believe there's a great intimidation factor at play here. In a game where both teams have reason to simply go through the motions rather than treat this as a true Bowl experience, I'll grab the generous helping of points. Take North Texas (10*).

CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose State plus the points over Boise State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

In what has been a truly unique 2020 college football season one thing has remained the same and that's Boise State contending for a Mountain West Conference Championship. With that being said, I don't consider the Broncos to be the same juggernaut they've been in years' past. I'm not sure we can consider any of their victories this season truly impressive as they faced a rather weak conference schedule. In their lone 'step up' game they got blown out 51-17 at the hands of BYU. Meanwhile, San Jose State did nothing but impress. The Spartans exceeded most expectations by going a perfect 6-0, including impressive wins over San Diego State and Nevada. I certainly expect the Spartans to be a 'tough out' in this contest on Saturday. Only eight teams in the country have allowed fewer points per play than the Spartans this season. Boise State checks in 43rd in that category. There's no question the Broncos do have the more explosive offense but what else is new. I will point out that QB Hank Bachmeier hasn't been the same 'field general' we've become accustomed to seeing running the Broncos offense. He threw exactly one touchdown in three of his four games this season while throwing a pair of interceptions in his last two contests and was sacked eight times overall. The Spartans have the type of defense that can minimize the effectiveness of this Boise State offense, noting they rank 20th in the country in yards per rush allowed and 20th in sack percentage. Take San Jose State (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Washington State at 1:30 pm et on Saturday.

A potential Bowl spot is on the line in this game between Washington State and Utah on Saturday afternoon. That is if either team is even interested in a Bowl game. Nevertheless, I look for the Utes to continue their upward trend with another strong performance in their home finale in this unique 2020 season. There's no question the Utes have been getting stronger with each passing game. In their lone previous home tilt they fell in blowout fashion against USC but that was after months of cancellations and no previous game action. We saw Utah put it all together in a 38-21 road win over a good Colorado squad last week and I look for it to build off that performance here. We were actually on Washington State last week before its game against Cal got canceled due to Covid issues. That leaves the Cougars in a tough spot here trying to once again get amped up for a game that really doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things (again, Bowl eligibility doesn't mean quite as much this season with many teams opting out). Cougars QB Jayden De Laura has shown some flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked five times and tossed three interceptions in three games. RB Max Borghi might see game action for the first time this season after a banner 2019 campaign but it remains to be seen how effective he can be against a very stout Utes run defense. Note that Utah checks into this game ranked 55th in the nation in points allowed per play. Take Utah (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Iowa State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This isn't the first time we've played the 'under' in the Big 12 Championship Game. It seems that on an annual basis most bettors are comfortable backing the 'over' in this contest played on the fast track at AT&T Stadium. Note that only one of the last five Big 12 title games have totaled more than 58 points. Of course, Oklahoma is a perennial Big 12 title contender having appeared in this game in seven of the last eight years. I consider this year's Sooners squad to be a little different. I certainly don't put QB Spencer Rattler in the same category as the previous three players to QB the Sooners in this game, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Note that Rattler has thrown for more than two touchdowns just once in his last five games. He topped out at 332 passing yards in those games, topping 300 yards only twice. Also note that he's been sacked seven times in the last two contests. Obviously the Sooners still boast a potent offense but they're running into a tough opponent in Iowa State here. The Cyclones have been a largely underrated commodity for much of this season and check in having allowed just 26 points over their last three games combined. Iowa State checks in 29th in the nation in points allowed per play. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has also been stout defensively, ranking 37th in the country in points allowed per play. While the Cyclones have had some breakout performances offensively, they're not what I would consider a juggernaut in that regard. QB Brock Purdy hasn't attempted more than 36 passes in a game since back on October 10th against Texas Tech. When these two teams met back on October 24th we saw a wild 37-30 game won by Iowa State. That game was actually fairly defensive until a late fourth quarter scoring flurry that saw three touchdowns in the game's final eight minutes. Take the under (10*).

CFB Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday.

This is certainly a low total by today's college football standards but much like our play on the 'under' in last Saturday's Wisconsin-Iowa matchup, I believe it is warranted. UAB shook off the rust after not playing for over a month due to Covid protocols, holding on for a 21-16 win but non-cover against Rice last week. The Blazers are expected to get some reinforcements on both sides of the ball this week with their entire team testing negative for Covid earlier this week. That means they'll have their tremendous stable of running backs back on the field. While that may help them extend their offensive drives in this game, it's certainly worth noting that Marshall has been extremely stingy against opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Thundering Herd rank tied for top spot in the nation in rush yards allowed per attempt (along with Georgia) at a measly 2.3. Only Cincinnati has allowed fewer points per play than Marshall this season. Of course, UAB can hold its own in that department as well with a loaded, experienced defense that ranks 21st in the nation in points per play allowed. The Blazers check in an impressive 16th in the country in yards allowed per game. I don't have a great deal of confidence in either starting quarterback in this matchup to be honest. I really think that both teams will enter this game with a focus on running the football, controlling the clock and letting their defenses take care of the rest. Expect Tyler Johnston and Grant Wells to assume dreaded 'game manager' roles with a Conference Championship on the line. There will be a few big plays, but I'm confident the game ultimately slides 'under' the total. Take the under (10*).

CFB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Saturday afternoon. This game pits a matchup of two of the nation's best defensive teams while at the same time two teams that boast inconsistent, ball control, clock-churning offensive attacks. Last year we saw 46 total points in this same matchup but that game also featured a 250+ yard rushing performance from current Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. Were it not for his success that game easily could have been far lower-scoring. Note that the Badgers and Hawkeyes have stayed true to character here in 2020, combining fierce defense with conservative offense and the formula has worked with varied success. The Badgers and Hawkeyes check in fourth and fifth respectively in terms of points allowed per play. No team allows fewer offensive touchdowns per game than Wisconsin and while Iowa checks in a less impressive 23rd in the nation in that category, we're talking about 127 qualifying teams. The Badgers ran up the score in their first two games against Illinois and Michigan this season but that had more to do with their opponent's defensive ineptitude than anything else. Note that they've yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season while QB Graham Mertz has thrown for just 559 yards and three touchdowns over his last three games. Ball security needs to be a focal point this week as he has tossed four picks in the last two games. With that in mind, look for Mertz to be relegated to a true game manager role here. Iowa's offense has been a little more consistent but will face a tough challenge against the Badgers defense this week. We've seen the Hawkeyes feast on some weak Big Ten defenses this season but also struggle against the likes of Purdue, Northwestern and Nebraska - only one of which I would consider a truly elite defensive squad (Northwestern). QB Spencer Petras has thrown more than a single touchdown just once in seven games - that coming against a hapless Illinois defense last week. I suspect both teams will be content with turning this one into a slugfest. While we're dealing with a low posted total, it could be even lower in my opinion. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Colorado at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We've cashed a couple of 'under' tickets with Utah already this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Colorado has gotten off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season on the strength of a tremendous ground game. Last week RB Jarek Broussard ran for an incredible 301 yards on 25 carries. That was against Arizona, however. He'll face a much tougher challenge against a Utah defense that has been stout against the run, allowing just north of 104 rush yards per game. On the flip side, the Utes offense has looked disjointed through three games. Perhaps that was to be expected given all the practice time they missed due to Covid protocols, which prevented them from starting the season even close to on time. Utah did score 30 points in last week's victory over Oregon State but didn't actually find the end zone in that game until just over three minutes remained in the first half. That was against a below average Oregon State defense. The Utes will face a tougher defensive opponent here as Colorado has allowed just 23 points over its last two games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday.

This is obviously a big game with a spot in the Mountain West Championship on the line as Nevada makes the short trip to Las Vegas to face San Jose State, with the Spartans having been displaced from their home to play this game at Sam Boyd Stadium. The betting marketplace has yielded a high posted total for this one - clearly expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. I'm just not convinced that will be the case. Nevada is coming off a 37-26 win over Fresno State - the third time it has scored exactly 37 points in a game this season, matching its season-high. QB Carson Strong went off in that contest, throwing five touchdowns. Keep in mind he had topped out at three passing scores in his last five games. This is a good offensive team but perhaps a little one-dimensional. The Spartans don't boast an elite secondary but I do expect that unit to hold its own against a somewhat predictable Wolf Pack offense. San Jose State put up 35 points in last week's victory, but that came against Hawaii, noting that the Warriors were in a clear letdown spot off an upset win over Nevada. The Spartans ground attack ran wild in that contest with RB Tyler Nevens gaining 152 yards and scoring a trio of touchdowns. Note that Nevens had topped out at 45 rushing yards in a game previously this season. Likewise, Kairee Robinson ran for 111 yards after previously reaching a season-high of 40 rushing yards in a game. If you check out my free play on this game you'll see that I'm supporting Nevada, but I'm also calling for a lower-scoring affair than most expect. Take the under (10*).

C-USA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss at 6:30 pm et on Thursday.

I'll back the 'under' as FAU and Southern Miss close out their respective regular seasons on Thursday night. This is a major flat spot for the Owls as they suffered a deflating 20-3 loss to Georgia Southern - snapping their four-game winning streak - last time out. With Marshall's game getting canceled this week, the Owls now have virtually no shot at earning a spot in the C-USA Championship Game. For Southern Miss, this game brings a merciful end to what has been a highly disappointing 2020 campaign. It all started with a 32-21 loss to South Alabama and never really turned around from there. While there were some positive signs from the Eagles offense earlier in the season, those disappeared down the stretch with USM scoring just 33 points in its last three games against FBS opposition. Against a strong FAU defense, with nothing but pride to play for on Thursday night, I'm not expecting a sudden turnaround from the Eagles offense. Take the under (10*).

CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon State is undoubtedly in for a letdown this week as it travels to Utah to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated 0-2 Utes squad. Of course, the Beavers staged a huge upset win over in-state rival Oregon last Friday night, rallying to win by a 41-38 score in one of the wildest games of the season. Standout RB Jermar Jefferson went off in that game, rushing for 226 yards and two touchdowns including an 82-yard TD run. If there's one thing the Utes have done well through two games, it's limit their opponents ability to consistently run the football. They've allowed just 181 rushing yards against USC and Washington. While they're not going to eliminate Jefferson entirely, I do believe they can do a much better job than Oregon did of keeping his big play ability in check. Offensively, the Utes have obviously faced a tough situation, with the start of their season delayed due to Covid protocols and their practice time limited. We did see them do some good things in the first half against Washington last week - jumping ahead by a 21-0 score. I'm sure the Utes offense and defense both took the second half collapse against the Huskies personally and we'll see a much sharper effort from start to finish this Saturday night. This is a well-coached Utah squad that should be able to put the disappointment of the 0-2 start behind it and deliver a convincing win over a very beatable Beavers team on Saturday night. Take Utah (10*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida minus the points over Tennessee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'm still not sure the Gators are getting the respect they deserve as all they've done since dropping a 41-38 decision at Texas A&M back on October 10th is reel off five straight wins by 24, 16, 28, 21 and 24-point margins. Now they head to Rocky Top to take on a Tennessee squad that started strong but is now mired in another lost season. I expect Florida to win in a rout. Tennessee has actually played just once since the second week of November, that being a 30-17 loss to Auburn. With QB Jarrett Guarantano struggling as badly as any quarterback in the SEC right now (47-for-76 passing for 448 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions last four games) the Vols will be hard-pressed to find much success in the likely event that they fall behind in this game. Yes, the Vols ground game has been effective but that's only because opposing defenses have employed a run-funnel strategy against them. Florida failed to cover the spread by the narrowest of margins against Kentucky last week as it essentially moved on to this week's game in the fourth quarter of that contest. Here, I anticipate the Gators keeping their foot on the gas for four quarters. Take Florida (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Huskers and Boilermakers do battle in early action on Saturday. We actually missed the mark with a big play on the 'over' in Nebraska's last game - a 26-20 loss to Iowa that certainly appeared to be headed way over the number before the scoring fizzled in the fourth quarter. This is obviously a different matchup for the Huskers as they face a bad Boilers defense that doesn't get after the quarterback. Expect the Huskers QB duo of Martinez and McCaffrey to have a field day hooking up with WR Wan'Dale Robinson. On the flip side, the Boilers should enjoy plenty of offensive success as well. All WR Rondale Moore has done since returning to the field two games ago is haul in 22 catches for nearly 200 yards while also adding 25 yards and a score on the ground. QB Jack Plummer has done a nice job since taking over for an injured Aidan O'Connell. The Huskers held up reasonably well against an average Iowa offense last Friday but I look for them to struggle to keep Purdue out of the end zone on Saturday. Take the over (10*).

Mountain West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Air Force and Utah State at 9:30 pm et on Thursday.

We won with Utah State in its 'upset' win over New Mexico last week but I'm going to switch gears and back the 'over' as the Aggies host 2-2 Air Force on Thursday night. I was high on Utah State's defense only due to the matchup last Thursday as New Mexico's offense had been as punchless as they come. While the Aggies certainly did enough defensively to win that game, we did see some serious cracks, especially after they were able to build a big third quarter lead. When they had a chance to really put the game to bed, they couldn't get their defense off the field as the Lobos went on a pair of touchdown drives that got them back into the game. Utah State hasn't done a good job defending the run this season and now faces Air Force's dominant option-based ground attack. I don't see the Aggies faring particularly well. Meanwhile, the Air Force defense has taken a step back after ranking near the top of the Mountain West Conference in most categories a year ago. That's not a surprise given all the turnover to their roster on that side of the football. While the Falcons are coming off a shutout victory, that came at the expense of aforementioned New Mexico. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Utah State offense here after QB Andrew Peasley stepped in and showed he could be a dual threat in last week's victory. While some regression should be in order, he'll by no means be facing an elite defense. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We cashed a free play on the 'under' in Utah's season-opening loss to USC last Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Utes head to Washington to face the Huskies. All things considered, Utah held up well defensively against the Trojans last week, allowing just 357 total yards while recording three sacks and forcing a pair of turnovers, including one they returned for a touchdown. Offensively, the Utes will need some time to mesh with a lot of new pieces in place this year. This is a tough second matchup against a good Huskies defense that comes in off a bye week due to a Covid-related cancellation last Saturday. Washington has allowed just 48 points through two games this season but that includes a punt return touchdown against Oregon State. Note that in the Huskies most recent game they actually pitched a shutout until the fourth quarter against Arizona. Offensively, Washington isn't all that threatening. It took advantage of a bad Wildcats defense last time out but will obviously be facing a difficult matchup against a perennially-tough Utes defense on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I'll back the 'under' at the Big House on Saturday afternoon as two disappointing Big Ten East squads do battle. Penn State has yet to post a victory this season but should come in with some confidence in this one. Note that last week the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter against Iowa but then didn't find the end zone again until well over midway through the third quarter. Meanwhile, Michigan didn't manage to score a touchdown until the final four minutes of the first half against lowly Rutgers last week. That contest ultimately turned on a Michigan kick return touchdown to open the second half, ultimately turning into a shootout that took three overtimes to decide. I expect these two teams to revert to past form and step up defensively on Saturday afternoon. Both offenses have had a tough time putting it all together and I expect more of the same here. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I'll lay the points with Oregon in the game formerly known as the 'Civil War' on Friday night in Corvallis. The Ducks are off to a perfect 3-0 start to the season and believe they can work themselves into the College Football Playoff conversation. I'm not sure we've seen their best football just yet, however. Last week they narrowly avoided a disaster in a 38-35 win over UCLA, not even sniffing a cover as a 17.5-point favorite. Here, we're dealing with a more manageable pointspread, and I'm anticipating a much sharper performance from an Oregon squad that even with its flaws has put up a whopping 116 points through three games. The offense should hum against a Beavers defense that hasn't generated much of a pass rush, recording just three sacks through three games. Oregon State boasts a tremendous ground attack led by RB Jermar Jefferson. He has yet to be slowed this season, rushing for at least 120 yards and a touchdown or more in all three games. I think the Ducks can come up with a few big plays against Beavers QB Tristan Gebbia, however. Gebbia has thrown just two touchdowns compared to three interceptions this season and hasn't proven to be any sort of threat with his legs. As good as Jefferson is, the Beavers aren't really built to play from behind and I expect Gebbia's inexperience to show in this matchup. Rallying to beat Cal last week is one thing, but doing so against a powerhouse like Oregon is another matter entirely. Take Oregon (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and California at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

I'll back the 'under' as the Cardinal and Golden Bears renew their rivalry at California Memorial Stadium on Friday afternoon. Stanford had its game against Washington State due to Covid protocols last week but when we last saw the Cardinal on the field they were involved in a wild 35-32 loss to Colorado. Keep in mind, Stanford didn't score a touchdown until over 10 minutes into the third quarter in that game. In its first game of the season against Oregon, Stanford found the end zone once in the first quarter but then not again until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth quarter. While the Cardinal defense has struggled, this is a favorable matchup against a Cal offense that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Bears managed to put together four scoring drives in the first half against Oregon State last week but were then held off the scoreboard for the entire second half. It was the same story in their first game of the season at UCLA as they put up 10 points in the first half and zero in the second. This matchup only managed to get into the 40's last season and I look for more of the same here. Take the under (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Iowa at 1 pm et on Friday.

We cashed our Big Ten Total of the Month in October with the 'under' in Iowa's 21-20 loss to Northwestern. Since then, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, scoring 49, 35 and 41 points in the process. Iowa's offense draws another favorable matchup on Friday as Nebraska comes in off a disappointing 41-23 home loss to Illinois. The Huskers defense isn't stopping anyone right now and will certainly have their hands full once again on Friday afternoon. I do expect Nebraska to show up, however, on the strength of an offense that is better than it has showed (at least in my opinion). The Huskers took three sacks and turned the football over a whopping five times last week against Illinois, but still managed to score 23 points. Meanwhile, Iowa recorded five sacks and forced five turnovers but still gave up 21 points on the road against Penn State last Saturday. I'm not going to overthink the situation here as I expect a physical Iowa offense to make life miserable for the Huskers defense while Nebraska should stay competitive in what amounts to the biggest game left on its 2020 calendar. I do think the Huskers worst offensive performances are behind them as their schedule was front-loaded with a tough season-opening three-game slate at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin (that game was canceled) and at Northwestern. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Utah State plus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Thursday.

This is by no means a marquee matchup on Thanksgiving Night as two winless Mountain West squads go head-to-head in Utah. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Aggies as this is certainly their best chance at winning a game this season as they face a Lobos team that has been living out of a suitcase all season due to Covid protocols in their home state. While Utah State had its most recent game against Wyoming canceled due to Covid-related personnel issues, we did see it show some signs of life in its prior contest, ultimately falling by a 35-16 score against Fresno State in a game that was still within reach until the fourth quarter. The Aggies obviously have major issues under center with starting QB Jason Shelley being dismissed from the program but if their offense is going to do anything on Thursday night, it's going to be on the strength of their effective ground attack. It's not as if Shelley was playing well - he was sacked six times in his most recent game and had barely managed to complete 50% of his passes while throwing only two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. RB Jaylen Warren ran for 136 yards on just nine rush attempts in his last game and has three rushing touchdowns in three games this season. The Aggies also boast one of the best kick returners in Mountain West history as WR Savon Scarver will be looking for a record-setting sixth return touchdown on Thursday night. The Lobos were a complete no-show on the road against Air Force last week (we won with Air Force in that game) and while they would certainly love to pick themselves up off the mat here, I'm not convinced they can win outright let alone cover the lofty pointspread. Again, I want to emphasize the fact that New Mexico hasn't played a true home game all season (it's lone "home" game was played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas against Nevada back on November 14th). I simply feel that at this stage of the season, this is a weary bunch that will be hard-pressed to put its best foot forward, even with the favorable matchup. Take Utah State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This game features a matchup of two of the nation's best defenses and two offenses in line for some regression on Saturday afternoon. The Badgers have scored over 40 points in both games this season, but those came against two reeling squads in Illinois and Michigan. Here, Wisconsin will face its toughest test of the season to date against an experienced Wildcats defense that has held all four opponents to 20 points or less. Northwestern scored 30 points in the first half of its season-opener against Maryland but has put up a grand total of just 82 points in three-and-a-half games since. QB Peyton Ramsey attempted 36 passes last week at Purdue. The last time he threw at least 30 passes in a game he followed it up with an 11-for-18 passing week the next game. I'm confident we'll see both teams treat their quarterbacks as game managers and rely on their ground attacks to move the football (and control the clock) in this crucial Big Ten showdown. While we're dealing with a low total by today's college football standards, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*).

CFB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over San Diego State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed the mark with Nevada in last week's win but non-cover on the road against New Mexico but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wolf Pack in a much different scenario this week, playing as a short home underdog against San Diego State. This is obviously a huge game in the Mountain West Conference, earning rare national TV billing on CBS. We've been high on Nevada all season and see this as a big-time spot for the Wolf Pack to make a statement. San Diego State successfully bounced back from its surprising home loss against San Jose State the week previous, scoring a 34-10 rout of Hawaii last Saturday. Keep in mind, the Aztecs recorded a whopping seven sacks and forced three turnovers in that game - you would almost think the eventual winning margin would have been much larger based on that. We saw some complete defensive breakdowns from Hawaii in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdown runs of 51 and 62 runs. It's unlikely we'll see those type of breakdowns from a Nevada squad whose longest touchdown allowed this season was just 22 yards back in its season-opener against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack essentially sleepwalked through their victory over New Mexico last week. At times we have seen Nevada suffer brief lapses of concentration this season but I'm confident it will be up for, and hyper-focused on the task at hand against a perennial MWC contender San Diego State this week. Note that Nevada took this matchup by a 17-13 score last year. In what should be a higher-scoring affair this time around, I like the Wolf Pack to repeat that effort. Take Nevada (10*).

My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Few bettors will have much interest in backing either of these one-win squads on Saturday but I like East Carolina's chances of delivering a lopsided victory at Lincoln Financial Field. The Pirates have had some bad breaks on their way to a 1-6 start to the season. After starting 1-1 they suffered controversial losses in back-to-back games against Navy and Tulsa (for reasons I won't get into here). Since then, they've come up empty in three more games although not much more could have been expected against the likes of Tulsa, Tulane and Cincinnati. Here, I look for ECU to take its frustrations out on a hapless Temple squad that is a shell of its former self. The Owls lone victory this season came back on October 17th against South Florida and that feels like it happened ages ago given their current state. Temple is likely down to its fourth-string quarterback this week, and also lost arguably its best offensive player in RB Re'Mahn Davis to the transfer portal earlier this season. As expected, the Owls defense has struggled throughout the season, unable to overcome the key personnel losses from last year's team. They'll be in tough trying to contain a Pirates offense that can score in bunches and features an emerging ground game that managed 206 yards in a blowout loss at Cincinnati last week. Note that Temple ranks 96th in the nation in run defense, allowing 199 rush yards per game on north of 4.5 yards per rush. Once the Pirates are able to build a lead, I'm confident they can ultimately put the game away. Take East Carolina (10*).

CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We missed the mark with the Golden Gophers one week ago tonight as they got blown out by Iowa in a true no-show. Here, we have to anticipate a much better showing from Minnesota as it faces a true must-win game if it wants to take any positives away from this unique 2020 Big Ten season. I don't feel that Purdue is an imposing road favorite. The Boilermakers are off to a 2-1 start this season but fell by a 27-20 score against undefeated Northwestern last week. QB Aidan O'Connell has absorbed nine sacks already this season and is now nursing an undisclosed injury and questionable to play on Friday. Meanwhile, the Boilers defense hasn't made a ton of splash plays, recording a grand total of three interceptions and three sacks through three games. I'm not ready to write off the Gophers just yet. QB Tanner Morgan was uncharacteristically awful in last week's 35-7 loss to Iowa. Here, I look for him to do a much better job of moving the sticks with more time to operate in the pocket. From there, RB Mo Ibrahim is certainly capable of putting the game away, having already ran for over 700 yards and 10 touchdowns through four games. The last time we saw Purdue play on the road it allowed 177 rushing yards against Illinois in a win but non-cover on October 31st. The Gophers put up 38 points in a win over Purdue last season. I simply feel that the wrong team is favored in this situation. Take Minnesota (10*).

MAC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Western Michigan is coming off what some will call a miracle come-from-behind win over Toledo last week so it would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown here on Wednesday night. I don't see that happening, however, as this is a rivalry game with Central Michigan and in this unique Covid-shortened 2020 campaign, the Broncos might need to run the table to reach the MAC Championship Game. While Central Michigan does check in 2-0 on the season, I haven't been overly impressed by either of its wins. In the Chips' first victory they recorded five sacks, forced a pair of turnovers and dominated the time of possession battle, but still won by just three points over Ohio, at home no less. Last week they rolled to a 40-10 victory over an inexperienced Northern Illinois squad that is essentially playing for next year. CMU will definitely be stepping up in class in this one, having dropped its last two meetings with WMU. The two teams are actually quite similar in a lot of ways, but I like the Broncos offense a little more at this stage of the season and believe their defense can rise to the occasion following a tough game against a good Toledo offense last week. Note that the Broncos will likely be without one of their best defenders in Ali Fayad after he suffered an ankle injury last week. I still like the Broncos here and will consider it a big bonus if he does play. Take Western Michigan (10*).

MAC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Buffalo is the cream of the crop when it comes to the MAC and is already off to a perfect 2-0 start on the heels of back-to-back blowout wins, scoring 40+ points in both contests. With that being said, it's difficult to envision the Bulls truly getting up for this Tuesday night trip to Bowling Green. Note that Buffalo will enjoy a few extra days off after this one, not playing again until next Saturday. It's also worth noting that it's next two games are much bigger ones, particularly it's next one against undefeated Kent State. Bowling Green has been blown out in each of its first two games, although both contests came against upper-echelon MAC squads in Toledo and Kent State. I'm always one to look for the positives, however, and I will point out that the Falcons have allowed just two sacks through two games and have also found some success running the football. I do think that Bowling Green can move the football consistently enough to eat some clock in this game and ultimately shorten proceedings and keep things respectable against a Bulls squad that is simply looking to win and move on. We've seen virtually nothing from the Falcons passing game so far this season even though they have a Boston College transfer at quarterback in Matt McDonald - and he comes in with some knowledge of head coach Scot Loeffler's system with Loeffler having been the offensive coordinator at BC. Again looking at the positives, McDonald threw two interceptions in his Falcons debut two weeks ago but didn't toss a single pick in last week's blowout loss. Take Bowling Green (10*).