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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans -10

The Houston Texans went from the best 0-4 team in NFL history to the best 1-4 team in NFL history. And then they upgraded to the best 2-4 team in NFL history in my opinion and saved their season with a 34-31 win over the Jaguars in London.

They did the same thing last year coming back from a dreadful start to the season, and they are well on their way to doing it again. They are a legit Super Bowl contender, and as long as they stay reasonably healthy that will prove to be the case as the season goes on.

The Texans are three defensive stops away from being 5-1 this season. They blew leads in the final seconds to the Bills, Colts and Cowboys. But head coach Ryans has since taken over play-calling duties, and they have gotten healthier getting back both stud LB's in Al-Shaair and To'oTo'o from injury. The only key player they are missing on D now is Jalen Pitre. This is one of the best defenses in the NFL in their current state.

But what has gotten overlooked is just how good CJ Stroud has played during this 2-4 start. He is completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,714 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season. It has been night and day how good this offense has been when WR Nico Collins is in the lineup. And now more reinforcements are on the way with Tank Dell likely to return this week. The Texans have one of the deepest WR corps in the NFL, plus a great TE in Schultz, and I actually think the offense has been better with Marks as the lead back.

The Giants are overrated and it's a miracle that they are leading the NFC East right now. It's been more bad from Dallas, Philly and Washington than good from the Giants that they find themselves in this position. But they got exposed by the Saints last week, and now it's going to be even uglier against the Texans this week.

The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are allowed 24 points to the Cardinals, 27 to the Commanders and 34 to the Saints in their last three games coming in. The defense has gotten much worse since the injury to their best pass rusher in LB Brian Burns. They are also without DE Golstson, LB Edmunds, CB Newsome II and FS Holland. They have cluster injuries in the secondary with Adebo and Nubin both questionable. It's just a mess.

I think JJ McCarthy is getting too much hype for what he did in garbage time against a very bad New Orleans defense last week in nearly leading the Giants back from a 34-10 deficit. He had one good game for the Vikings last year too that got him more starts. And it was a disaster after that. I think McCarthy will prove to be a disaster in New York, too. Especially this week when he faces a legit Houston defense. Bet the Texans Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Texans OVER 42.5

What has gotten overlooked is just how good CJ Stroud has played during this 2-4 start by the Houston Texans. He is completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,714 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio this season. It has been night and day how good this offense has been when WR Nico Collins is in the lineup. And now more reinforcements are on the way with Tank Dell likely to return this week. The Texans have one of the deepest WR corps in the NFL, plus a great TE in Schultz, and I actually think the offense has been better with Marks as the lead back.

The offense has held up its end of the bargain averaging 23.8 points per game this season. They put up 31 points and 409 yards on the Bills with Collins. They have since put up 30 points on the Cowboys, 26 on the Titans and 34 points on the Jaguars in the other three games Collins has played. So they have scored at least 26 points in every game he has played, and they will hang a big number on the Giants to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 42.5 ticket.

The Giants are overrated and it's a miracle that they are leading the NFC East right now. It's been more bad from Dallas, Philly and Washington than good from the Giants that they find themselves in this position. But they got exposed by the Saints last week, and now it's going to be even uglier against the Texans this week.

The Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They have allowed 24 points to the Cardinals, 27 to the Commanders and 34 to the Saints in their last three games coming in. The defense has gotten much worse since the injury to their best pass rusher in LB Brian Burns. They are also without DE Golstson, LB Edmunds, CB Newsome II and FS Holland. They have cluster injuries in the secondary with Adebo and Nubin both questionable. It's just a mess.

JJ McCarthy led the comeback from 34-10 down to only lose 34-27 to the Saints last week and 61 combined points. The Giants have now gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 60 points with the Cardinals, 54 with the Commanders and 61 with the Saints. This total of 42.5 is very short for a game involving the Giants right now.

Houston is going to get into the 30's in this game and the Giants are going to be forced to try and play hurry up in the 2H to come back again. That will lead to more points both ways with likely mistakes by McCarthy, but enough plays made for the Giants to get their points too. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Vikings -6.5

Everyone keeps trying to catch the falling knife with the Minnesota Vikings. They have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but also one of the best defenses, and that defense has carried them to a 5-0 start to the season.

But I can make the argument that the Vikings have been held back offensively by Carson Wentz. Kyler Murray got hurt early in the opener against the Packers and Carson Wentz was not good in his place. Murray hasn't been great either, but he's learning a new system, and he hasn't had his full compliment of weapons yet either.

Well, coming out of their bye week, the Vikings are as healthy as they have been all season and primed for a big effort at home Sunday. I expect the defense, which allows just 12.8 points per game, 259.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, to continue to ball out.

But I'm most excited about seeing the improvements on offense that will come with Murray getting two more weeks to get the system, and for him to have his full compliment of weapons in Jefferson, Addison, Jennings, Hockenson, Jones Jr. and Mason. On paper, this is one of the best groups of skill positions in the NFL. They are fully healthy on the offensive line, too.

The Colts are a bad, bad football team. They average just 4.9 yards per play on offense and allow 6.1 yards per play on defense, getting outgained by 1.2 yards per play. And things have gone from bad to worse with all their injuries and the firing of their general manager. In fact, there are a ton of rumors in the media that all of their best players are available, signifying they are close to quitting on the season already.

I mean, a 26-20 home loss to the Tennessee Titans will do that. They handed the Titans their first win of the season. And now they are supposed to go on the road and bet competitive against the Vikings? I'm not buying it.

Daniel Jones is scared to run, and his legs are his best weapon. He's just not a good pocket passer. And it doesn't help that he is short on weapons with TE Warren, WR Pierce and WR Gould all out. His favorite target is the washed up Keenan Allen.

The Colts have been poor defensively even though they have been pretty healthy most of the season. They are allowing 27.3 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. They will be without their best CB in Sauce Gardner this week. They were already without DE Arden Key and DE Michael Clemson, plus LB CJ Allen. And both LB Boettcher and CB Walley are questionable. Buckner and Stewart have been mentioned heavily in trade talks. They are just a mess right now, and I fully expect them to get blown out this week. Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -2.5

The Carolina Panthers are legitimately one of the best teams in the NFC that everyone is failing to realize. They are strong on both sides of the football, and they have played this well despite working through some injuries.

The Panthers are 3-2 this season and their 32-26 home win over the Detroit Lions proved they were for real. They came back from their bye week and handled their business last week, beating the Eagles 25-14 on the road in a game that was probably an even bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Panthers outgained the Eagles 399 to 222 for the game, or by 177 total yards.

The bye week allowed them to get back several starters from injury, and now they are as healthy as they have been all season going into this game with the Tampa Bay Bucs. They are fully healthy on offense, and the only key players they are missing on defense are LB Jaelen Phillips and CB Jaycee Horn.

Bryce Young is balling out this season and has been even better when both McMillan and Coker are on the field at the same time. He has thrown for 1,549 yards with an 11-to-2 TD/INT ratio. Young leads a Carolina offense that is one of the best in the NFL, averaging 29.2 points per game, 404.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. The new up-tempo scheme has really paid dividends.

The Bucs are 1-5 this season. And while I know they aren't as bad as their record as they have had some tough luck in close games, I don't think they are as good as the Panthers in their current state. So getting to lay -2.5 with Carolina at home is a nice value.

Tampa Bay is a banged up, tired team coming off a OT loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Even when Baker Mayfield was healthy their offense was broken. They are averaging just 19.8 points per game, 292.7 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play. Their best offensive performance of the season actually came with Jalon Daniels as their QB against the Cowboys.

Mayfield is returning from his dislocated thumb and I think he is returning too early. He has to wear a glove to be able to grip the football, which is never good. And we've seen Mayfield struggle mightily in the past while playing injured. He will be without his best WR Emeka Egbuka, and fellow starting WR Jalen McMillan remains out as well. These are some bad weapons he is going to be throwing the ball to without these two. RT Luke Goedeke is out as well. The defense is missing FS Antoine Winfield, who is one of their best players. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* Packers/Lions NFC North ANNIHILATOR on OVER 52.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 5-0 OVER in all games this season going for 61 combined points with the Saints, 72 with the Bills, 55 with the Jets, 58 with the Panthers and 66 with the Cardinals, topping this 52.5-point total every week.

The Lions are fully health on offense and thriving.  They are 2nd in scoring offense at 32.8 points per game, 4th in total offense at 393.8 yards per game and 6th at 6.1 yards per play.  And we are getting Jared Goff indoors here which is where he really shines.

But the Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL again this season.  They rank 30th in scoring defense at 29.6 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 404.4 yards per game and 25th at 6.0 yards per play.  They are without several key players in the secondary, and teams have been able to pass all over them. That makes this a terrible matchup for them against Green Bay.

The Packers have a solid passing offense as Jordan Love is the only QB in the NFL to throw at least 2 TD passes in every game this season.  They just lit up the Bears for 428 yards including 358 passing two weeks ago and followed it up with 261 passing yards against the Cowboys despite three dropped TD passes.  They also had 311 passing yards against the Falcons and 353 against the Vikings.  Love has been very good, and he's going to torch this poor, banged up Detroit secondary.

One hidden factor here is the Packers are nowhere near as good defensively as the numbers show.  They have simply benefited from playing the easiest schedule of opposing QB's in the NFL.  In their six games, they have faced four backup QB's and Geno Smith.  They faced Wentz, Smith, Penix, Daniels and Bagent/Keenum. They also benefited from playing on a slick field last week against the Cowboys, who didn't have the right cleats on and couldn't handle it. This Detroit offense will eat them alive.  The only close comp was the Falcons, who torched them for 35 points and 498 total yards.

Green Bay's defense enters Week 7 in worse shape than it has been all season in the injury department.  Not only do they remain without their best player in LB Micah Parsons, they just lost their other best pass rusher in LB Edgerrin Cooper and their best interior defender in NT Javon Hargrave.  Making those injuries worth is that they have no depth due to other injuries to NT Jordon Riley, NT Jonathan Ford, DE Warren Bronson and LB Collin Oliver.  They just have no depth up front now. And they lost LB Zaire Franklin to an injury last week against the Cowboys that will keep him out this week.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in Detroit finishing with 55, 65 and 51 combined points, respectively. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rams/Raiders OVER 46.5

Klink Kubiak was in charge of the Super Bowl-winning Seattle offense last year and the improvement of Sam Darnold.  The Seahawks have no running game this season, and Darnold has looked awful.  A large part of that is losing Kubiak.  He is turning Kirk Cousins and this Las Vegas offense into one of the better units in the league, which is no small feat.  The Raiders are averaging 27.0 points per game this season.

But this is a bad, bad Las Vegas defense.  They are allowing 27.0 points per game, 372.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  And that's against a relatively easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They have played the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, Patriots and Bills.

The last four games were very concerning as they allowed 27 points and 381 yards to the Saints, 30 points and 399 yards to the Chiefs, 45 points and 539 yards to the Patriots who were down three of their top four receivers, and 33 points to the Bills.

The Raiders have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games with 62 combined points with the Saints, 57 with the Chiefs, 62 with the Patriots and 63 with the Bills.  This total of 46.5 is very short for a game involving the Raiders right now, especially when you consider they rank 8th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.9 seconds.

The Rams have actually played even quicker this season, ranking 6th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.6 seconds. Their 2-4 record has hid what has actually been a pretty productive offense in terms of moving the football. The Rams actually rank 3rd in total offense at 401.3 yards per game and 8th at 6.0 yards per play. They will hang a big number on the Raiders even without Davante Adams, and the possibility that Nacua could miss with a calf injury.

The Rams are in a world of hurt defensively right now. They are without four starters in DE Turner, NT Ford, LB Landman and LB Garrett. They could be without their best player in the secondary in CB McDuffie, who is questionable. The Raiders will hang a big number on this banged up Rams D, too. This has the making of a shootout, and this total of 46.5 was way too low when I grabbed it early in the week. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Ravens OVER 50

Note: I locked in this OVER 50 early in the week with the anticipation Lamar Jackson would be returning for the Ravens. I'm usually ahead of injury info and as a result get the best # possible for probably 90% of the time. I botched this one. Jackson has since been ruled out, and this total has cratered to 46 in most places. If you already bet it at a higher number, I apologize. But if you're buying late in the week and get this total under the key number of 47, I would still recommend it as a 20* play.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout in Baltimore this weekend. Temps will be in the 60's with no wind and no rain. I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to come out of their bye week hitting on all cylinders offensively.

The bye week came at a perfect time as both star WR's Chase and Higgins were banged up going into the bye, but played through injuries in their 31-24 shootout win in Miami that saw 55 combined points. Both should come out of the bye healthier and ready to go, and Chase in particular owns the Ravens if you look at his career numbers against them.

The Bengals are 3-2 OVER in all games this season going for those 55 combined points with Miami, 57 with Pittsburgh and 60 with Tampa Bay. One of their unders came against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Texans, and the other was an aberration against the Jaguars where the teams combined for 760 yards but left a lot of points on the board, especially the Bengals who had 17 points on 437 yards.

The Bengals are going to score, and Tyler Huntley is going to be asked to make plays. He has proven he is capable against a similarly weak Atlanta defense. He led the Ravens to a 30-23 win in Atlanta and two late TD drives when he had to have them. He struggled in the weather in Cleveland last week, but every offense seems to struggle in Cleveland.

I expect a bounce back from this Baltimore offense even with Huntley at QB. He has one of the best WR's in Zay Flowers, plus star rookie WR Lane is back and healthy. Fellow WR Bateman is healthy and will go. C Cam Jurgens will make his debut, and they are fully healthy everywhere outside of Jackson on offense.

The Ravens have benefited from a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses including the Titans and Browns. But their defense was exposed when stepping up in class, namely allowing 31 points and 415 yards to the Cowboys and 23 points and 367 yards to the Falcons. I think this Cincinnati offense is the best they will have seen yet.

The OVER is 4-2 in the last six meetings finishing with 46 or more combined points in five of those six. That includes 51 or more combined points in four of them. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 49ers/Falcons OVER 49.5

The Atlanta Falcons have turned into a dead nuts OVER team with Michael Penix Jr. at QB. They had the worst offense in the NFL with Cooper Rush. They have taken off since Penix Jr. took over.

Indeed, the Falcons are 4-0 OVER in their last four games since Penix Jr. returned. They went for 49 combined points with the Packers, 69 with the Saints, 53 with the Ravens and 54 with the Bears. Their offense has been electric, averaging 31.5 points per game in his four starts.

That Atlanta defense has regressed in a big way largely due to all the injuries that they simply haven't been able to overcome. They have allowed 30 points in consecutive weeks, and now they must try and contain one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL in the 49ers.

They'll have to try and slow down San Francisco while missing five key players in LB Deablo, NT Thompson, DE Hand, LB Abdullay, LB Pearce and CB Bowman. Another handful of key players are questionable in NT Dexter Sr, LB Daniels, LB Ebukam, CB Henderson, CB Terrell and LB Smith. What a mess this defense is right now.

The 49ers have been elite offensively despite all their injuries. They are scoring 29.5 points per game, averaging 366.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. Mike Evans is out this week, but Christian Kirk is expected to make his season debut. The 49ers are going to be able to move the football and score points no matter who is in there as they've shown all season.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for this San Francisco defense, and this Atlanta offense will have its way on the fast turf at home. The 49ers are without DE Bosa, SS Sigle, DT Collins, DT West and DE Okuayinonu among others. CB Stout is questionable after suffering an injury on Monday Night Football. And this is a tired defense on a short week after being on the field basically the entire 2H against the Commanders to preserve the win. Both offenses will have their way in this one, and this total should be in the 50's not the 40's as a result. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.