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15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on A's/Mariners OVER 7.5

Seattle's bats have finally come to life.  The Mariners have gone 13-4 OVER in their last 17 games overall with 7 or more combined runs in 15 of those 17 games.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the Mariners right now.

The same can be said for the A's, who have gone 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 9 or more combined runs in all six.  In fact, the A's and their opponents have combined for at least 7 runs in 31 of their last 34 games overall.  This total of 7.5 is too short for a game involving the A's as well.

Jeffrey Springs is an absolute gas can going 3-13 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 25 starts this season while allowing 87 earned runs and 33 homers in 123 innings with just 98 K's.  Springs allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 8-5 loss to the Orioles in his last start.  He allowed 5 runs in 5 innings of a 9-1 loss to the Mariners in his lone start against them this season.

George Kirby has been one of the more overrated starters in baseball this season.  He is 9-10 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 26 starts with just 128 K's in 152 2/3 innings.  Kirby has really struggled of late, allowing 16 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.97 ERA during this stretch.

The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the A's and Mariners with 7 or more combined runs in eight of those nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Marlins OVER 8

The Cubs are red hot at the plate scoring 64 runs in their last eight games for an average of 8.0 runs per game.  The Cubs have gone 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 14 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Cubs right now.

The Miami Marlins are also heating up at the plate scoring 3 runs or more in six of their last seven games.  They have gone 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Marlins right now as well.

Both teams will go with relievers turned starters and neither will go deep into this game.  Javier Assad is 4-1 with a 4.66 ERA on the road this season allowing 24 earned runs and 9 homers in 46 1/3 innings.  Ryan Gusto is 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts and five relief appearances for the Marlins this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Tulsa +13.5

There has been a ton of hype on Oklahoma State all offseason.  Former North Texas head coach Eric Morris brought a ton of transfers with him to Stillwater.  But this is still a big rebuilding job off a 1-11 season, and this is a big step up in class for these players going from the AAC to the Big 12.

No question there's a lot to like about this North Texas offense with QB Mestemaker, RB Hawkins and WR Young following Morris from North Texas.  And while I think the offense will be fine, there's a lot of questions surrounding the defense.  The Cowboys don't return a single starter on either side of the ball.

The defense in particular is concerning with Morris banking on basically all transfers.  And most of the transfers are from smaller conferences, including several from what was a pretty poor North Texas defense.  The Cowboys are going to struggle to get margin all season with this defense, including in Week 1 against Tulsa.

Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 19-12 last season in Stillwater.  But the Golden Hurricane clearly are not satisfied with just beating them once.  "We want to beat these guys. We don't just want to keep it close," head coach Tre Lamb said. "Our goal is to win the football game, and that's gonna be our goal every week.  But particularly this one.  It means a lot to our fanbase and I understand that."

Lamb is one of the better up-and-coming head coaches in the country at just 35 years old.  He didn't have much to work with last season, and the Golden Hurricane went 4-8 despite actually outgaining their opponents on the season.  They were better than their record would indicate.  And now Lamb has a lot more veterans in Year 2.

Sophomore QB Baylor Hayes returns to lead the offense after throwing for 2,158 yards and 12 TD last season, while also rushing for three scores.  The Golden Hurricane are loaded at RB, and the offensive line has five players back who started last season, so the continuity will be good.

The defense returns six of their top nine tacklers, which is rare for a Group of 6 program.  I actually think Tulsa has the better defense in this matchup.  I'll gladly back the better defense at home catching nearly two touchdowns.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

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15* UNLV/Hawaii CW Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 55.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 55.5 ticket between UNLV and Hawaii tonight.  There will be 20-25 MPH sustained winds and a chance of rain in Hawaii. That's going to make it very difficult to pass the football, and it will really handcuff both offenses, especially the Rainbow Warriors.

Hawaii went 9-4 last season and were led by a defense that only allowed 24.1 points per game.  While the offense had some nice pieces at QB and WR, the Rainbow Warriors scored just 29.0 points per game last season.  They have QB Micah Alejado back for his sophomore season, but he won't have nearly as much talent around him as he did last season.

Alejado won't have his top four receivers from last year, his leading rusher, and three starting offensive lineman.  The loss of WR Jackson Harris (963 yards, 12 TD) wouldn't have been as big if Pofele Ashlock (827 yards, 8 TD) was healthy to start the season.  But he's not and he sat out Week 0 and will likely sit out again this week.  I expect their offense to take a bigger step back this season than their defense will.

Hawaii is coming off a misleading 37-27 road loss at Stanford in Week 0.  That was a dead nuts under game for 3 quarters before the offenses exploded in the 4th for 36 points.  There were only 30 points scored through 3 quarters.  Hawaii scored 3 TD in the 4th quarter alone, and Stanford scored 2 TD in the final two minutes including a fumble-6 TD.  Hawaii managed just 46 rushing yards on 22 carries for 2.1 per carry in the loss.  They had 322 total yards and 4.4 per play on offense against what is a bad Stanford defense.

UNLV lost 27-21 at home to Memphis in Week 0 for just 48 combined points.  The offense looked good for nearly 3 quarters before losing two starting offensive linemen to injury, including their center.  They could not do anything on offense after losing their center, and they will have the same troubles in Week 1 without two starting offensive linemen due to injury.  They are going to want to get star RB Jai'den Thomas going after he had just 44 yards on 12 carries against Memphis.  QB Jackson Arnold will also use his legs in this one more than his arm.

UNLV beat Hawaii 38-10 last season at home for just 48 combined points in perfect conditions in the dome.  UNLV held Hawaii to just 253 total yards in the win.  I think they will shut down Hawaii again, and the weather will really aid us in cashing this UNDER 55.5 ticket tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Central Michigan/New Mexico UNDER 47.5

Central Michigan ranked 134th out of 136 teams in tempo last season snapping the ball every 30.8 seconds.  New Mexico ranked 94th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.5 seconds.  Both teams will play slow again, and both teams will rely on defense and slowing down the pace to try and win games in 2026.

New Mexico went 6-1 UNDER in its final seven games last season finishing with 47 or fewer combined points in six of those seven games.  That even included a pair of OT games against Minnesota and SDSU.  Their defense was legit last season allowing just 22.3 points per game.  With six starters and five of their top seven tacklers back, the Lobos will be even stronger defensively this season.

The problem for the Lobos is losing starting QB Jack Layne to a season-ending elbow injury in camp.  Layne was awesome last season, completing 65.1% of his passes for 2,486 yards and 13 TD< while also rushing for 152 yards and four scores.  But Layne isn't the only loss.  The Lobos lose their top three receivers and top three RB's from last season.  They are going to struggle to score with a backup QB who doesn't have any proven playmakers.

Central Michigan enters Year 2 under Matt Drinkall who guided Army to the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best offensive line as the O-Line coach there.  He believes in running the football with a Power Spread offense that takes advantage of a QB's running ability.  The Chippewas are the rare team that still uses a fullback, which alone screams dead nuts UNDER team.

The Chippewas were indeed an UNDER team last season scoring just 22.5 points per game on offense and allowing just 23.5 points per game on defense.  They did a great job of shortening games to stay competitive and were rewarded with a trip to a bowl game in Drinkall's first season.  It's not a fun brand to play, but it is a way to be competitive.

The offense will struggle again this season with the losses of their top three receivers and their top two RB's.  The defense should be solid again with several quality transfers brought in by Drinkall and he will have his players in place now.  I think both defenses will be ahead of the offenses in Week 1.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Arkansas State +11.5

This is a terrible spot for the Memphis Tigers.  They are coming off a 27-21 road win at UNLV in Week 0 where they celebrated like they won the National Championship.  They stayed in Las Vegas, and now they must travel clear back east to host Arkansas State in Week 1.  That win sparked college football playoff talk for Memphis, and now they are a 'fat and happy' team returning home.  They have an even bigger road game on deck at Boise State next week that could determine their playoff fate, making this the ultimate sandwich spot.

Memphis only returned one starter from last year's team for first-year head coach Charlie Huff.  He brought a lot of players from Southern Miss with him to fill out the roster.  Memphis was very fortunate to beat UNLV and benefited from two key offensive line injuries for UNLV during the game where they had no success after losing their starting C in particular.

Up to that point, UNLV was doing whatever it wanted to offensively on this suspect Memphis defense.  UNLV still racked up 460 total yards and 7.7 yards per play despite doing almost nothing offensively in the 4th quarter.  QB Jackson Arnold looked like the 5-star recruit he was coming out of HS, throwing for 291 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 54 yards and a score against this Memphis D.

Arkansas State has been a steady program under Butch Jones, who has led the Red Wolves to bowl games in each of his last three seasons.  Jones has 10 returning starters this season which is a lot for a Group of 6 team.  And while they lose QB Jaylen Raynor, I think he was one of the more overrated QB's in the country.  It's very possible that Texas transfer Trey Owens will be an upgrade.

The pieces are in place for Owens and company to have success with seven starters back on offense.  Two 500-yard rushers are back at RB, two of the top three receivers are back in Cobb (797 yards) and Summers (505 yards), and four starters are back along the offensive line.  Jones is a great offensive mind, and the Red Wolves will keep coming for four quarters offensively.

No question the Arkansas State defense has always been a concern and will be again this season.  But four of the top eight tacklers return in SS McGhee (83 tackles), FS Barnes (68 tackles), LB Nelson (54 tackles) and LB Greil (54 tackles).  The latter two may even lose their jobs to Kennesaw State transfer Five Hamilton and Lafayette transfer Tre Stevens.  The back 7 in particular looks very strong defensively.  Bet Arkansas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas State +29.5

Texas State is one of the better Group of 6 programs in the country.  GJ Kinne enters his 4th season in San Marcos and is one of the better young head coaches in the country.  He has led the Bobcats to bowl games in each of his first three seasons, and honestly it could have been a lot better as they have had some very poor luck in close games the last two seasons in particular.

There was a stretch last season where the Bobcats lost three straight heartbreaks by 1 to Arkansas State, and in OT to both Troy and Marshall.  But they finished strong blowing out their final four opponents by 31, 27, 23 and 17 points.  And they carry that momentum with them into 2026 with 11 returning starters, which is a big number for a Group of 6 program in today's college football.

The offense in particular will be one of the best in the country after averaging 36.5 points per game and 473 yards per game last season.  Seven starters are back on offense including QB Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with a 21-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 744 yards and a whopping 17 TD as a freshman last season.  Joining him will be a pair of 1,000-yard receivers from last season in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TD) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TD).  The O-Line is anchored by returning starters in LT Sully Burns and C Justin DeLeon.

Texas State returns three of hits top five tacklers on defense in FS Nolan, LB Jones and LB Cooks.  The Bobcats add in a ton of quality transfers on D and should have one of the best defenses of the Kinne era.  But Texas State is going to keep coming on offense for four quarters in this game, and getting +29.5 with this offense is too much.

No question Texas has the talent again to be a national title contender.  The Longhorns have 11 starters back and add in some nice transfers.  But I think Arch Manning hasn't lived up to the hype and he may never live up to it.  Texas only averaged 30.5 points and 388 yards per game last season offensively.  That includes 138 rushing yards per game despite having a dual-threat QB.  The Longhorns leave a lot to be desired on offense, which makes it tough for them to get margin.

We saw that last season when the Longhorns failed to cover as 37-point favorites against San Jose State at home and as 40-point favorites against UTEP at home.  Texas State is night and day better than both of those programs.  Another key factor here is Texas has a huge game with Ohio State on deck and may call off the dogs in the 2H if necessary.  But I think they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for in Week 1.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SEMO/Iowa State UNDER 53.5

The Iowa State Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  This total of 53.5 is too high today.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside B Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season, including against FCS opponent SE Missouri State in Week 1.

SEMO is coming off a 23-21 upset win at Indiana State in Week 0 for just 44 combined points.  They managed just 327 total yards in the wind including 53 rushing on 30 carries.  They held the Sycamores to 346 yards as well.  I see Iowa State coming close to shutting out SEMO, which will pave the way to us easily cashing this UNDER 53.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Marshall +24.5

Marshall will be one of the better Group of 6 teams in the country this season.  Tony Gibson enters his 2nd year at Marshall and did a good job of getting the Thundering Herd on the verge of a bowl game in his first season after Charlie Huff left for Southern Miss and took all his players with him.

Marshall went 5-7 last season with four losses by 4 points or less, so they were really close to being a 9-3 team.  They have nine starters back from that team which is actually quite a few for a Group of 6 team in today's college football.

The offense in particular is in good hands with the emergence of QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson last season.  He completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,043 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also rushed for 661 yards and 6 TD as one of the better dual-threats in the country.  He has three of his top four receivers back.  Del Rio-Wilson was a 3rd-stringer coming into the season last year and now he is their senior leader and a voice everyone can get behind.

The defense will be improved despite just three of the top 10 tacklers returning.  They have their sack leader in DE Braydin Ward back, and three other starters return in LB Gilmore, NB Pierre-Louis and SS Smith.  With those four back leading the way, this will be an improved defense to go with their already explosive offense that averaged 30.8 points per game last season.

Penn State has high expectations to live up to with Matt Campbell replacing James Franklin.  I always felt Campbell was better building smaller programs than he is going to be with all the headlines that come with coaching a program of Penn State's caliber.  He is good at getting the most our of lesser talent.  But time will tell how he does when he has more talent at his disposal.

In the intermediate, Campbell is relying on a lot of former Iowa State players to be great at Penn State.  And that's just not the type of talent Penn State is used to, so I think there will be some growing pains until he does actually get more talent to compete in the Big Ten.  The Nittany Lions only have five starters back from last year's team.  He signed 39 transfers with most from Iowa State.

QB Rocco Becht is coming off shoulder surgery.  RB Carson Hansen is not a big-time RB by any means but will be their starter.  It's basically an offense with Becht that only averaged 27.4 points per game last season.  The defense will likely take a step back too with Campbell relying on so many transfers.  They may be fine long-term, but in Week 1 they should not be laying 24.5 points to Marshall with all their question marks.  Bet Marshall Saturday.

20* UCLA/Cal ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML -122

UCLA had one of the best hires of the offseason when they nabbed Bob Chesney of James Madison.  Chesney led the Dukes to the college football playoff in his 2nd season last year.  He took Holy Cross to the playoffs in four of his previous five seasons at Holy Cross.  Chesney is one of the best young coaches in the country.

Chesney was able to get seven starters to stick around, including QB Nico Iamaleava and three of the top six tacklers on defense.  He added 11 transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Bruins basically 18 returning starters.  A lot of the transfer come with Chesney from JMU.  That includes RB Wayne Knight who rushed for 1,373 yards and averaged 6.6 per carry last season.  He absolutely crushed in the transfer portal, and I expect the Bruins to hit the ground running this season.

California finally moved on from Justin Wilcox and the cupboard is pretty bare for new head coach Tosh Lupoi, who was Oregon's defensive coordinator.  While the Golden Bears look very good at QB with JSP and at WR, the rest of the roster is a mess.  They have four new starters on the offensive line.  But the defense is the biggest concern with just three returning starters, and the Golden Bears lose each of their top five tacklers from last year.  Lupoi will be going with mostly transfers who were backups at other programs.  This will likely be one of the worst defenses in the ACC this season.  Bet UCLA on the Money Line.