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Jack's Free Pick Monday: Padres/Cubs OVER 11

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11 ticket between the Padres and Cubs in Game 1 of this series tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.

Griffin Canning is 1-5 with a 7.38 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in eight starts and two relief appearances for the Padres this season.  He has allowed 35 earned runs, 8 homers and 71 base runners in 42 2/3 innings.  Canning allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone career start at Chicago.

Shota Imanaga is 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 16 starts this season while allowing a whopping 20 homers.  Imanaga has really been battered of late allowing 31 earned runs and 15 homers in 37 2/3 innings in his last seven starts for a 7.41 ERA.

The Cubs are red hot at the plate right now scoring 7.7 runs per game in their last 10 games.  The Padres have been much better offensively away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park.  The OVER is 3-0 in three meetings between the Padres and Cubs this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Nationals/Red Sox OVER 8.5

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 49-33-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.  This total of 8.5 is too short for a game involving the Nationals.

The Boston Red Sox are heating up at the plate scoring 4 runs or more in six consecutive games, including 5 runs or more in five of them.  No question they stay hot against one of the worst starters in baseball tonight.

Miles Mikolas is 2-6 with a 5.00 ERA allowing 43 earned runs and 16 homers in 77 1/3 innings.  Mikolas allowed 8 earned runs and 11 hits in 2 2/3 innings of a 18-7 loss to the Red Sox in his last start against them last season.  He is backed by a bad Washington bullpen with a 5.00 ERA this season.

Ranger Suarez is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA in seven starts at Fenway Park this season.  Suarez has allowed 6 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against Washington.  The OVER is 5-1 in Suarez's last six starts overall.  The Red Sox have a depleted bullpen right now after going extra innings with the Yankees last night and sweeping them in four games with high leverage situations in all four for their bullpen.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Astros OVER 9

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 53-31-1 OVER in all games this season.  That includes 21-9-1 OVER in their last 30 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 20 of their last 28 games, and 10 or more in 19 of those.  They Twins are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

The Astros have a potent offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  They have gone 44-39-3 OVER in all games this season.

Zebby Matthews is 9-15 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 33 career starts.  He is 3-5 with a 4.56 ERA in eight starts this season, including 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA in four road starts.  He has allowed 19 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings on the highway this season.

Peter Lambert is 6-4 with a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 3.40 ERA in seven home starts.  Both teams have poor bullpens with Minnesota a 5.45 ERA on the season and Houston a 4.44 ERA on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Diamondbacks -128

The Arizona Diamondbacks return home highly motivated for a victory after getting swept by the Rays in Tampa Bay over the weekend.  I like their chances of getting back on track thanks to their big advantage on the mound.

Eduardo Rodriquez is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 16 starts for the Diamondbacks this season, including 4-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight home starts.  Rodriquez allowed 2 earned runs in 6 innings with 6 K's in a 7-5 win over the Giants on May 26th in his lone start against them this season.

Tyler Mahle has been an absolute gas can this season.  He is 1-7 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-4 with a 8.88 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in five road starts while allowing 24 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.  Mahle has a 8.10 ERA in two starts against the Diamondbacks in 2026 alone allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 innings.

The Diamondbacks have owned the Giants going 9-1 in the last 10 meetings and 6-0 in the last six meetings.  Bet the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pirates/Phillies OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Pirates and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to left.  The Pirates have a potent offense scoring 5.1 runs per game this season.

The Phillies are hot right now scoring 4 runs or more in 10 of their last 13 games overall, including 10 runs or more three times.  They are averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 13 games.  With both offenses thriving right now, this should be a slug fest.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  Nola is 3-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 16 starts this season allowing 50 earned runs and 17 homers in 80 2/3 innings.  He is 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in seven home starts.  Nola has allowed 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Pittsburgh.

No question Braxton Ashcraft is having a great season for the Pirates are 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 16 starts.  However, one of his worst starts of the season came against the Phillies on May 15th when he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 11-9 loss that saw 20 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.