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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Panthers/Eagles OVER 39

This total has been bet down too much with the news that Jalen Hurts is out for the Eagles.  It has been bet down from an opener of 43 below the keys of 41 and 40.  I think there's value here to go contrarian and back the OVER.

The Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season averaging 30.3 points per game, 405.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They are also playing at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NFL snapping the ball every 26.6 seconds.  Their uptick in tempo has been a big reason Bryce Young is thriving so much in Year 4.

But the Panthers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL as well.  They allow 27.3 points per game, 387.3 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season.  They rank 26th, 30th and 26th respectively in those three categories, which is very poor considering that includes their 34-3 win over Cooper Rush and the Falcons and their 21-18 loss to the Browns, two of the worst offenses in the league when they played them.

Even the Eagles can move the ball and get some points against this Carolina defense with Tanner McKee at QB.  Everyone loved him when he lit it up last year in the preseason, and he has shown he is capable.  I don't think it's that big of a downgrade from Hurts, especially in the passing game.  The Eagles have had one of the worst offenses in the NFL with Hurts at QB the last two seasons.

While Hurts is out, there is help on the way offensively for the Eagles in the form of WR DeVonta Smith, who missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  McKee will have his full compliment of weapons at WR, and I wouldn't be surprised to see rookie Makai Lemon have the best game of his young career as McKee is great in the short-to-intermediate passing game.

This Philadelphia defense has been just as disappointing as its offense.  The Eagles allow 22.4 points per game, 356.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play this season.  They allowed 22 points to the Commanders and a season-high 20 to the Titans the first two weeks.  The last three weeks were even more concerning as they gave up 27 points and 375 yards to the Bears, 415 yards to the Rams and 408 yards to the Jaguars.

There are reinforcements on the way for the Panthers offensively, too.  WR Jalen Coker (18 receptions, 222 yards, 2 TD) was knocked out of the Cleveland game in Week 3 early and missed the next game against the Lions.  He is back this week, and there's a chance they get back two starters on the offensive line in LG Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  Backup RB Trevor Etienne was activated from IR alongside Moton and is upgraded to questionable.

The forecast looks perfect for a higher-scoring game in Philadelphia than the books anticipate.  Temps will be in the 50's with single-digit winds and no precipitation.  I expect the Panthers to easily get into the mid-to-upper 20's, and for McKee to provide a spark to this Eagles offense as they get into the 20's as well.  This total of 39 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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15* Cowboys/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 53

The Dallas Cowboys remain a dead nuts OVER team this season with a great offense and a terrible defense.  They are putting up 27.6 points per game this season and brought back their entire offense from last season that was elite.  They are fully healthy on offense right now.  They scored 34 points on the Ravens and 34 on the Texans, two of the best defenses in the league.

This Dallas defense is by far the worst unit on the field.  The Cowboys are allowing 27.2 points per game, 395.4.5 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season despite facing four poor offenses in the Giants, Commanders, Texans and Bucs.  They just allowed 419 yards to the Bucs and rookie QB Daniels last week.  The Cowboys are down four key players in the secondary in CB Durant, S Locke, CB Moore and S Thompson.  They are also down LB Overshown, their green dot and one of their most important defenders.  That's why they made the desperate trade for CB Joey Porter Jr., but now Porter Jr. is questionable to play this week, too.

The Cowboys are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall dating back to last season, and 17-5 OVER since the start of last season.  They went for 48 combined points with the Giants, 57 with Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, 65 with the Ravens and 64 with the Texans in their first four games this season.  After a rare under against the Bucs last week where both teams left points on the board, this total is lower than it should be.  The Cowboys haven't gone under the total in consecutive games in the season since Weeks 9 and 10 of the 2024 season.

The Packers have a solid passing offense as Jordan Love is the only QB in the NFL to throw at least 2 TD passes in every game this season.  They just lit up the Bears for 428 yards including 358 passing last week.  They also had 311 passing yards against the Falcons and 353 against the Vikings.  Love has been very good, and he's going to torch this poor, banged up Dallas secondary.

One hidden factor here is the Packers are nowhere near as good defensively as the numbers show.  They have simply benefited from playing the easiest schedule of opposing QB's in the NFL.  In their five games, they have faced four backup QB's and Geno Smith.  They faced Wentz, Smith, Penix, Daniels and Bagent/Keenum. This Dallas offense is far and away the best offense the Packers will have faced this season.  The only close comp was the Falcons, who torched them for 35 points and 498 total yards.

Green Bay's defense enters Week 6 in worse shape than it has been all season in the injury department.  Not only do they remain without their best player in LB Micah Parsons, they just lost their other best pass rusher in LB Edgerrin Cooper and their best interior defender in NT Javon Hargrave.  Making those injuries worth is that they have no depth due to other injuries to NT Jordon Riley, NT Jonathan Ford, DE Warren Bronson and LB Collin Oliver.  They just have no depth up front now, and the Cowboys play at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NFL and will push the pace to test that depth.  CB Cisse is questionable while backup CB St. Juste is out, plus DE Campbell is questionable.  It's a mess for them defensively in the injury department.

This has been a dead nuts OVER series when the Cowboys and Packers get together.  Indeed, the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings finishing with 58 or more combined points in all six meetings, and 80 points in each of the last two.  They have averaged a whopping 68 combined points in their last six meetings, so this total of 53 isn't even that big all things considered.  The OVER is 19-6 in the last 25 meetings dating back to 1990 as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Bills/Raiders AFC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 53.5

Both the Bills and Raiders are dead nuts OVER teams with solid offenses and poor defenses.  Also what makes them OVER teams is the fact that they hired two offensive coordinators in the offseason.  I love backing OVERS in NFL games featuring two offensive guys who were former coordinators in this league.  They just tend to be more higher-scoring because they are more worried about offense than defense.

That has been the case for Joe Brady and the Bills as the switch has been big from the defensive-minded, conservative Sean McDermott.  Josh Allen is having a MVP-caliber season, leading the Bills to 32.8 points per game, 396.2 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season.  The Bills are 4-1 OVER in all games this season with 55 or more combined points in four of their five games, so this total of 53.5 isn't all that big for a game involving Buffalo.

The drop off defensively has been noticeable without McDermott, plus the fact that this is one of the least-talented defenses in the NFL.  The Bills are allowing 28.2 points per game, 388.6 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play.  Injuries are a problem too with DE TJ Sanders, DE Ed Oliver and CB Dee Alford all questionable heading into this one.  And it's a tired Buffalo defense that just play a OT game against the Rams on Monday Night Football.

Klink Kubiak was in charge of the Super Bowl-winning Seattle offense last year and the improvement of Sam Darnold.  The Seahawks have no running game this season, and Darnold has looked awful.  A large part of that is losing Kubiak.  He is turning Kirk Cousins and this Las Vegas offense into one of the better units in the league, which is no small feat.  The Raiders are averaging 26.4 points per game this season.

But this is a bad, bad Las Vegas defense.  They are allowing 25.8 points per game, 377.6 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season.  And that's against one of the easiest schedules of opposing offenses.  They have played the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs and Patriots.

The last three games were very concerning as they allowed 27 points and 381 yards to the Saints, 30 points and 399 yards to the Chiefs and 45 points and 539 yards to the Patriots who were down three of their top four receivers.  They have gone 3-0 OVER in their last three games with 62 combined points with the Saints, 57 with the Chiefs and 62 with the Patriots.  This total of 53.5 isn't that short for a game involving the Raiders, either.  The Raiders rank 7th in tempo while the Bills rank 16th, so there should be a ton of possessions in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Cardinals/Rams OVER 51

The Rams are going to hang a big number on the Cardinals this week to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 51 ticket.  They are averaging 424.4 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play on offense this season.  They are fully healthy on offense outside LT Alaric Jackson, who has been suspended for this game, but they have plenty of depth on the O-Line to make up for it with David Quessenberry taking his place.  The Rams have put up at least 24 points and 415 yards in four consecutive games, and two of those were played without Puka Nacua.

This Arizona defense is trash again this season.  The Cardinals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 32.4 points per game, 26th at 363.4 yards per game and 29th at 6.4 yards per play.  They have some key injuries in the secondary without CB Will Johnson and S Andrew Wingard, and Wingard's two backups are also out.  SS Budda Baker and LB Zaven Collins are both questionable.

The Cardinals have allowed 31-plus points in four consecutive weeks with two of those coming against backup QB's in Drew Lock of the Seahawks and Jameis Winson of the Giants.  They also allowed 36 points to the 49ers and 45 points to the Lions, two offenses that are comps to the Rams.

Arizona is going to be forced to play with tempo to try and keep up in a shootout because the Rams are going to score.  Jacoby Brissett has proven he is capable, and the Cardinals have scored at least 21 points in four of their five games this season.  I expect them to get to at least 21 in this one, and the Rams to get at least 31 so betting the OVER at the key number of 51 is a nice value.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Rams and Cardinals with 51 or more combined points in four of those five meetings.  That includes 62 and 57 combined points in their two meetings last season.  It should be more of the same in their first meeting of 2026 this week.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs +2.5

My one regret this week in the NFL was not locking in the Bucs +3 early in the week for clients.  I personally have them bet at +3 (-120) and was waiting for a +3 to come back on the site but it never did.  I think that's telling, and the Bucs are the right side in this game.  Wrong team favored here.

Baker Mayfield has been a liability for the Bucs this season with 5 turnovers in his three starts.  I don't think the downgrade to Jalon Daniels is as much as the books are pricing in.  After getting his feet wet in a 17-14 home loss to the Packers in his first start, Daniels showed out last week in a 24-16 upset win at Dallas as 8.5-point dogs.  The Bucs racked up 419 yards and 6.5 yards per play on offense.  Daniels is completing 69.1% of his passes and has rushed for 87 yards in two games.  He gives them a dual-threat ability they didn't have as much with Mayfield.

Bucky Irving has rushed for 406 yards and 5.3 per carry this season.  The threat of Daniels running has opened things up for Irving.  He rushed for 165 yards and a TD against the Cowboys.  Running the football will be important in this game because there are expected to be 20 MPH winds in Tampa Bay this afternoon.

Aaron Rodgers has notoriously struggled throughout his career in Tampa Bay, and he will struggle in these windy conditions.  That's especially the case with him now being without three of his top four receivers in Pittman Jr., Wilson and Skoronek.  Even his favorite TE in Pat Freiermuth popped up on the injury report Saturday and will be playing through a calf injury if he does go.  The Steelers have some of the worst weapons in the NFL in their current state.  DK Metcalf was on the injury report earlier this week, too, and he's really their only proven target now.

The Bucs are nearly fully healthy on offense outside of Mayfield.  They have all of their top receivers available outside McMillan, and their offensive line is intact.  I think Tampa Bay actually has the better offense in their current state over the Steelers, and if not it's much closer than the books are factoring in.

But what really stands out is just how much the Steelers have dropped off defensively this season, while the Bucs have one of the best defenses in the NFL but their 1-4 record has masked it.  The Bucs are allowing just 299.4 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.  Compare that to the Steelers, who are allowing 324.2 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  And factor in the easy schedule of opposing offenses the Steelers have faced, while the Bucs have played the Bengals, Cowboys and Packers.

Pittsburgh got to face Cooper Rush and the Falcons and nearly lost at home.  They got to face a banged up New England offense back when Drake Maye was struggling and lost 20-3.  They allowed 27 points to the Bengals and 27 points to the lowly Browns.  And last week they allowed 22 points to the Colts at home.  And what really stands out are the big home/road splits for the Steelers.  They are 3-0 at home but 0-2 on the road, getting outscored 47-27 by the Patriots and Browns.

The Bucs holding the Cowboys to just 16 points on the road last week is no small feat.  They went more man coverage without S Antoine WInfield, and Rodgers struggles against man.  They will go as man-heavy as possible this week knowing the Steelers don't have the weapons to beat them.  The Steelers have some very concerning injuries defensively with DE Derrick Harmon out, SS DeShon Elliott out, and NT Keeanu Benton, CB Jamel Dean and CB Jalen Ramsey all questionable.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Saints/Giants OVER 46

The Saints are a dead nuts OVER team with a solid offense and a terrible defense.  They are 3-2 OVER in all game this season with the only two unders coming against the elite defenses of the Vikings and Ravens.  Their other three games were all shootouts losing 31-30 to the Lions for 61 combined points, losing 35-27 to the Raiders for 62 combined points and losing 45-24 to the Falcons for 69 combined points.

Tyler Shough has played well at QB for the Saints and has some underrated weapons in Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson.  The Saints also run offense at the fastest tempo in the NFL snapping the ball every 26.3 seconds, something offensive-minded head coach Kellen Moore really believes in.

But it has been a detriment to this tired, banged up New Orleans defense.  The Saints allow 30.2 points per game, 361 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Even Minnesota's previously dead offense put up 364 yards and 23 points on them last week.  Injuries are a big problem as they are without two starting LB's in Ellis and Jennings.  And there just isn't that much talent on this side of the ball as a whole.

The Jameis Winston Experience is living up to the hype the last two weeks.  They flew over the total with the Cardinals in a 36-24 win at home for 60 combined points two weeks ago.  And last week Winston brought them back from 14 points down to finish in a 27-27 tie with the Commanders and 54 combined points.  It's worth noting both of those games were played in poor weather, too.

But the forecast in New York looks perfect for a shootout this Sunday.  Temps will be in the 50's with no wind and no rain.  The Giants are definitely more pass-happy with Winston which is good for OVERS.  They threw the ball 54 times last week.  They are going to live and die with him throwing it all over the yard, and he should have plenty of success against this putrid New Orleans defense.

This is a bad Giants defense without their best pass rusher in Brian Burns, who is on IR.  It's a big reason they have played in two shootouts the last two weeks and made Arizona and Washington both look good offensively.  They will make the Saints look good, too.  Injuries are really piling up as they have eight defenders on IR, plus SS Tyler Nubin and CB Colton Hood are out.  LB Abdul Carter is questionable and will be playing through injury if he does.  Their defense has benefited from weather being a factor in four of their five games too.  The one game it wasn't a factor was when they allowed 481 yards and 8.2 per play to the Rams.  This total should be a couple ticks higher than it is.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -105

This is one of the best spots of the season in the NFL.  The Panthers are off a bye while the Eagles are traveling back from London from a painful last-second loss to the Jaguars at the buzzer.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and now the Eagles are in jeopardy of having their season spiral out of control.

I locked in the Panthers early in the week and would have loved this play whether or not Jalen Hurts played.  It's just an added bonus he isn't now, and the Panthers have moved to -3.5 point favorites since the news.  It's just another reason a long-term package is the best route as you will get the same lines I get and beat the market the majority of the time.

It's not just the Hurts injury, either.  RT Lane Johnson retired midseason, and LG Landon Dickerson is trying to come back from IR.  They traded away C Jurgens, and backup C Kendall is beat up and questionable.  This offensive line is in shambles, which will make it very difficult for backup QB Tanner McKee to play up to his potential.  Not to mention, their are decimated at RB with Barkley, Bigsby and Shipley all out with injuries.

This Philadelphia defense has been just as disappointing as its offense.  The Eagles allow 22.4 points per game, 356.8 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play this season.  They allowed 22 points to the Commanders and a season-high 20 to the Titans the first two weeks.  The last three weeks were even more concerning as they gave up 27 points and 375 yards to the Bears, 415 yards to the Rams and 408 yards to the Jaguars.

The Panthers have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season averaging 30.3 points per game, 405.8 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They are also playing at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NFL snapping the ball every 26.6 seconds.  Their uptick in tempo has been a big reason Bryce Young is thriving so much in Year 4.

There are reinforcements on the way for the Panthers offensively, too.  WR Jalen Coker (18 receptions, 222 yards, 2 TD) was knocked out of the Cleveland game in Week 3 early and missed the next game against the Lions.  He is back this week, and there's a chance they get back two starters on the offensive line in LG Damien Lewis and RT Taylor Moton.  Backup RB Trevor Etienne was activated from IR alongside Moton and is upgraded to questionable.

The Panthers have a massive rest advantage and a massive advantage on offense.  I don't think the Eagles are that much better than Carolina defensively, either.  I could also see this being a home-field disadvantage for the Eagles as fans are not happy with this team right now, especially head coach Nick Sirianni.  The boo birds will be plentiful as the Panthers roll the Eagles today.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +3

Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush is not being factored into these lines enough.  Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,476 yards with a 15-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers three weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijan Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints two weeks ago.  And last week they lost 30-23 to the Ravens in OT but had 367 yards and 6.0 per play.  Penix was knocked out of the game late and didn't play the OT, too.

This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have averaged 34.3 points per game and 428.3 yards per game in their three games with Penix at QB.  The rib injury Penix suffered in the Baltimore game was not serious, and he is back this week and a full go.

This Chicago defense has benefited from playing Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith.  They were exposed by the Panthers in Week 1 allowing 37 points and 478 yards.  And they were exposed by Jordan Love and the Packers last week allowing 31 points, 428 yards and 7.5 yards per play.  I think this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with now.

The Bears will be without LB TJ Edwards (injury) and DE Montez Sweat (suspension) after having both available up to this point.  They are also missing DE Dayo Odeyingbo.  They are extremely soft along the Front 7 now and the Falcons will take advantage as Bijan Robinson is in line for a massive game.  The Bears really struggle against outside zone runs without Sweat on the field, and that's all the Falcons run.  Both CB Tyrique Stevenson Sr. and CB Kyle Gordon are questionable in the secondary, too.  The Falcons will stay hot offensively.

No question the Falcons have an average defense in their current state, but it's still better than what Chicago is putting on the field.  Atlanta has respectable defensive numbers allowing 24.4 points per game, 328.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, holding opponents to 27 yards per game and 0.7 yards per play below their season averages.  To compare, the Bears allow 6.5 yards per play this season, which is 1.2 yards per play worse than the Falcons.  And the Bears have faced an easier schedule of opposing QB's and offenses.

I locked this line in at +3 early in the week with the anticipation that Penix would return once coaches said they were optimistic he would.  It has dropped down to basically PK since.  And I fully expect the Falcons to win this game outright.  But it's just another reason having a long-term package is critical to get the best line possible, because I'm going to beat the market the majority of the time.  The Falcons should not be home dogs in this game.  Wrong team favored.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

25* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bears/Falcons OVER 48.5

Note: I locked in this total early in the week with the anticipation that Caleb Williams would be returning for the Bears, and with a good chance that Michael Penix would play as coaches were optimistic he would and his rib injury wasn't serious.  Both have returned to practice on Wednesday. This total is only going to continue to go up, so if you didn't get the good early number just make sure you lock it in before it gets to the key number of 51.

Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most underrated QB's in the league, and his upgrade over Cooper Rush is not being factored into these lines enough.  Penix Jr. is completing 61% of his passes for 3,476 yards with a 15-to-7 TD/INT ratio in his career for the Falcons.  It's no surprise to see this offense go off for 498 total yards in a 35-14 win over the Packers three weeks ago.  Penix Jr. has tremendous chemistry with Drake London, one of the best receivers in the NFL.  London had 9 receptions for 194 yards against the Packers.

And the threat of a downfield passing attack with Penix opens things up for the best running back in the league in Bijan Robinson.  He had 194 rushing yards and 2 TD against the Packers.  He and backup Brian Robinson combined for over 200 rushing yards and 5 TD in their 45-24 win over the Saints two weeks ago.  And last week they lost 30-23 to the Ravens in OT but had 367 yards and 6.0 per play.  Penix was knocked out of the game late and didn't play the OT, too.

This is one of the best offenses in the league in their current state.  And season-long stats for the Falcons are what has them undervalued because they had incompetent Cooper Rush as their QB the first two games.  They have averaged 34.3 points per game and 428.3 yards per game in their three games with Penix at QB.  The OVER is 3-0 in those three games as well.  The rib injury Penix suffered in the Baltimore game was not serious, and he is back this week and a full go.

The Bears also get Caleb Williams back at QB.  Their offense was not good without him, and the fact that the Bears have played four straight unders coming into this game has this total lower than it should be.  This game should play out much closer to Week 1 when the Bears won 59-37 at Carolina.  The Bears have played five straight outdoor games to open the season, and now they get to play in a dome for the first time.  That will automatically increase scoring for them.

This Chicago defense has benefited from playing Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts and Geno Smith.  They were exposed by the Panthers in Week 1 allowing 37 points and 478 yards.  And they were exposed by Jordan Love and the Packers last week allowing 31 points, 428 yards and 7.5 yards per play.  I think this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with now.

The Bears will be without LB TJ Edwards (injury) and DE Montez Sweat (suspension) after having both available up to this point.  They are also missing DE Dayo Odeyingbo.  They are extremely soft along the Front 7 now and the Falcons will take advantage as Bijan Robinson is in line for a massive game.  The Bears really struggle against outside zone runs without Sweat on the field, and that's all the Falcons run.  Both CB Tyrique Stevenson Sr. and CB Kyle Gordon are questionable in the secondary, too.  The Falcons will stay hot offensively.

The Falcons have done a decent job piecing together a defense amidst a ton of injuries.  But they still give up 24.4 points per game this season.  Giving up 30 to the Ravens and a backup QB last week was a bad look.  They were already without their best pass rusher in James Pearce and their best CB in AJ Terrell.  Now they lost CB CJ Henderson, so they will be extremely thin in the secondary.  And their second-best pass rusher in LB Za'Darius Smith is questionable to play as well.  Caleb Williams stretches the field for the Bears downfield much more than backups Keenum and Bagent, and that threat will be back this week and test this Atlanta defense in a big way.  Both offenses should feast.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Texans/Jaguars NFL London No-Brainer on Houston +3

I love the spot for the Houston Texans this week.  There were the best 0-4 team in NFL history going into last week, and now they're the best 1-4 team in NFL history going into this week.  And that poor recover is why we are catching a full 3 points with the Texans on a neutral against the Jaguars this week when I believe they should be favored in this game.

Injuries and poor luck in close games is why they are 1-4.  They had a lead with their defense on the field in the final seconds in three of their losses.  That's why head coach Demeco Ryans took over play-calling duties on defense last week, and his defense nearly delivered a shutout in a 26-3 road win over the Titans.  They held the Titans to 187 total yards and 3.5 per carry.

I like the fact that the Texans had a stress-free game last week so they should still be pretty fresh for this game with the Jaguars even though they have to travel to London.  This is a business trip for them, trailing the Jaguars by 3 games in the division already making this a must-win game if they want any chance to win this division.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been celebrating in London all week from their 19-17 win on a last-second FG at the buzzer over the short-handed Philadelphia Eagles last week. They are 'fat and happy' and won't be playing with a sense of urgency now.  It's embarrassing it came down to that for the Jaguars considering how short-handed the Eagles were without several starters on the offensive line, plus WR Smith and RB Barkley.  They also got away with a narrow win at Cincinnati the week prior despite getting outgained by 114 yards by the Bengals.  They won't get away with it this week.

The Texans are much healthier now than they were during their 0-4 start.  Their offense goes as Nico Collins goes, and they have been great offensively in every game he has played scoring 31 points on the Bills, 30 on the Cowboys and 26 on the Titans in his three starts.  They just traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., who played with CJ Stroud at Ohio State and has that chemistry with him.  The offensive line is fully healthy, and the only key player they are missing is RB David Montgomery, but backup Woody Marks was big for them last season and may actually be the better back.

The Texans have been playing without some key starters at linebacker for the majority of the season in MLB Al-Shaair and WLB To'oTo'o.  If you ask everyone in the locker room who their most important defender is, they would say Al-Shaair.  He is back now, and To'oTo'o is off injured reserve and back to practice and upgraded to questionable.  They still have the best pass rush in the league, and their secondary is fully healthy outside Pitre.

The Houston pass rush is going to give the Jaguars problems with all their injuries on the offensive line.  They are without LT Anton Harrison who was just placed on IR after suffering a injury last week.  They are also without RG Mekari.  Houston notoriously plays close to the line of scrimmage against Trevor Lawrence, and their tight man to man coverage has given him a lot of problems over the years.

Indeed, the Texans are 3-1 SU in their last four meetings with the Jaguars.  They held them to 20 points or fewer in three of those four games, and a total of 213 yards in a fluky 36-29 shootout win where the Jaguars were gifted a ton of points.  This Jacksonville secondary is a weakness, allowing 266.2 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt this season.  CJ Stroud has been awesome this season even with the injuries, and he's not the reason they are 1-4.  Stroud has thrown for 1,402 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.  He will light up this Jacksonville secondary with a healthy Collins and newcomer Harrison Jr. in tow.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Texans Sunday.