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Jack's Free Pick Friday: Boston Red Sox +103

Injuries are catching up to the Yankees finally.  They have gone 3-5 in their last eight games overall while scoring just 2.9 runs per game in those eight contests.  They are also a tired team playing for an 11th consecutive day today.

I've been impressed with Payton Tolle this season.  He has posted a 3.36 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 11 starts with just 6 homers allowed and 62 K's in 64 1/3 innings.  One of his best starts of the season came against the Yankees on April 23rd when he allowed one earned run in 6 innings with 11 K's.  And that was back when they had Judge, Stanton and Grisham in the lineup.  All three are out now.

I'll gladly fade Will Warren, who just can't seem to figure out the Red Sox.  Warren is 1-2 with a 9.42 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three career starts against Boston, allowing 15 earned runs and 28 base runners in 14 1/3 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Red Sox Friday.

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15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Braves/Giants OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Braves and Giants tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center in San Francisco.  The Braves have one of the best offenses in baseball scoring 4.9 runs per game.  The Giants are at 4.1 runs per game this season.

Reynaldo Lopez is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts and 13 relief appearances this season for the Braves.  He has been at his worst on the road with a 3.57 ERA and 1.64 WHIP while allowing 7 earned runs, 4 homers and 29 base runners in 17 2/3 innings away from home.  Lopez has a 5.40 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in two career starts against San Francisco, allowing 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 17 base runners in 8 1/3 innings.

Trevor McDonald is 2-5 with a 4.93 ERA in nine starts this season, including 1-3 with a 6.10 ERA in four home starts while allowing 14 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

The Braves and Giants have combined for 9 or more runs in each of their last five meetings in this head-to-head series.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NL West ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the most potent offenses in baseball scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.  The San Diego Padres have been swinging the bats as well as they have all season here of late scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games.  This total of 7.5 is too short for these two offenses up against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Roki Sasaki is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts this season.  He is 2-2 with a 6.19 ERA in six road starts, allowing 22 earned runs in 32 innings away from home.  Sasaki has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Walker Buehler hasn't been the same since leaving the Dodgers.  He is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 15 starts this season.  His stuff has really fallen off due to several injuries, and the Dodgers will know what to expect from him having been his former teammate.  Buehler allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his only previous action against Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Diamondbacks/Rays OVER 8.5

Zac Gallen has been a dumpster fire this season going 3-6 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with a 7.68 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in eight starts away from home.  Gallen has allowed 33 earned runs and 9 homers in 38 2/3 innings on the road. He is 1-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay while allowing 8 earned runs and 14 hits in 11 innings with just 7 K's.

The Rays are capable of covering this total on their own against Gallen and this Arizona bullpen.  They just scored 13 runs on the Royals yesterday and should come in with a ton of confidence at the plate.  Arizona has scored 8 runs or more in four of its last seven games overall so should contribute to this total as well.

While I like Martinez over Gallen today, there's no question Martinez is due some regression this season with his lack of strikeout ability.  His 2.73 ERA is unsustainable with just 55 K's in 89 innings thus far, so Arizona will do enough to contribute to this total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Rays -135

The Tampa Bay Rays have a massive advantage on the mound tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks and they should be bigger favorites as a result.

Nick Martinez is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts fort he Rays this season while allowing just 8 homers and 17 walks in 89 innings.  He is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against Arizona, allowing just 2 earned runs in 12 innings.

Zac Gallen has been a dumpster fire this season going 3-6 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 0-3 with a 7.68 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in eight starts away from home.  Gallen has allowed 33 earned runs and 9 homers in 38 2/3 innings on the road. He is 1-1 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay while allowing 8 earned runs and 14 hits in 11 innings with just 7 K's.  Bet the Rays Friday.

20* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Orioles OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 48-31-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.3 runs per game.  The Baltimore Orioles are 47-32-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.

Trevor Rogers has been an absolute gas can for the Orioles this season.  He is 4-7 with a 5.30 ERA in 14 starts, including 2-5 with a 5.52 ERA in nine home starts.  He allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 9-3 loss to the Nationals in his last start against them.  Rogers is backed by a poor Baltimore bullpen with a 4.51 ERA this season.

Andrew Alvarez will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Nationals.  He hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in any of his four starts thus far, which puts a ton of pressure on a terrible, tired Washington bullpen.  The Nationals have a 5.02 ERA as a bullpen this season.

The OVER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between the Nationals and Orioles with 10 or more combined runs in four of those five meetings.  This total of 9 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.