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Jack's Free Pick Monday: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Houston Astros that should have them winning this game by multiple runs.  The Dodgers also have the rest advantage playing just their 4th game in 5 days, while the Astros will be playing their 6th game in 5 days and returning home from a 6-game road trip.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has allowed just 12 earned runs and 38 base runners in 37 2/3 innings.  He is backed by a solid Los Angeles bullpen that has posted a 3.83 ERA this season.

The tired Astros will go with opener Steven Okert before giving the bulk of the innings to rookie Ryan Weiss.  Okerk has posted a 4.20 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 15 innings this season.  Weiss is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.99 WHIP this season, allowing 16 earned runs, 6 homers and 43 base runners in 21 2/3 innings.

Houston also has the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.20 ERA this season.  And they likely won't have the services of their best reliever in Bryan Abreu after he pitched two innings yesterday.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

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20* Timberwolves/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on Minnesota +12.5

The spreads for the three regular season meetings between the Timberwolves and Spurs were all -5 or less.  This spread for Game 1 has been inflated with the Spurs -12.5 at the time I locked this play in.  I locked it in as soon as Anthony Edwards looked good in shootaround with a decent chance to play tonight.  But I like the Timberwolves either way.

The Timberwolves went 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their three regular season meetings with the Spurs with their lone loss coming by just 3 points on the road.  They actually won two games against the Nuggets without both Edwards and DiVincenzo for at least half of Game 4 and for the full game in Game 6. The Timberwolves even won Game 6 without Ayo Dosunmu, the breakout player of that series.

Now both Edwards and Dosunmu are questionable for Game 1.  It would be a huge bonus to have one or both of them available, and with four days off since that Denver series, there's a good chance both will feel good enough to go tonight.  If not, the Timberwolves have proven their depth and can still hang without them for Game 1.

I think rust might be a factor for the Spurs after making easy work of the Blazers in five games in their last series.  They have been off since April 28th.  This is still a young team without any playoff experience, so the road is only going to get harder for them going forward.  They should not be favored by 12.5 against Minnesota in Game 1.  Bet the Timberwolves Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Yankees OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Orioles and Yankees tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left field at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.  It has been a similar forecast in the first three games of this series as these teams have combined for 9, 13 and 14 runs.

The Yankees have scored 7, 9 and 11 runs in the first three games of this series and are capable of covering this total on their own again.  Shane Baz is 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in six starts this season.  Baz allowed 11 earned runs and 6 homers in 6 1/3 innings in two starts against the Yankees last season.

This Baltimore bullpen has been awful as well with a 4.65 ERA this season.  The Yankees have a 4.31 ERA at home as a bullpen this season.  No question Cam Schlittler has been impressive this season, but he can't keep up these numbers and is due some regression.

The Orioles are 11-1-1 OVER in their last 13 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 11 of those 13 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Brewers and Cardinals tonight.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center and temps in the 70's in St. Louis.

The Cardinals are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 4.9 runs per game this season.  The Brewers are scoring 5.2 runs per game and have an underrated lineup despite some injuries.

The Brewers should hang a big number on Kyle Leahy and this awful St. Louis bullpen.  Leahy is 3-3 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing 18 earned runs, 6 homers and 49 base runners in 29 1/3 innings with 22 K's.  St. Louis has a 4.92 ERA as a bullpen as well.

Chad Patrick is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball with how much he pitches to contact.  He has just 16 K's in 28 innings and a 2.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  Patrick is 0-1 with a 4.16 ERA in two career starts against the Cardinals, allowing 4 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Cubs OVER 11.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11.5 ticket between the Reds and Cubs tonight.  There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 8-4 for 12 combined runs.

The Cubs are 18-6-2 OVER in their last 26 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring 7 runs or more in 11 of their last 20 games overall and scoring 5.4 runs per game on the season.  The Reds are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall.

The Cubs will hang a big number on rookie Chase Petty, who went 0-3 with a 19.50 ERA in limited action last season.  He allowed 13 earned runs, 3 homers and 22 base runners in 6 innings.  Petty has gone 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts at Triple-A Louisville this season.

Edward Cabrera is due some major regression as his advanced numbers look much worse than his actual numbers of 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts this season.  Cabrera is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in two career starts against Cincinnati, allowing 10 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Dodgers/Astros OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros are a dead nuts OVER team going 23-11-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 5.7 runs per game.  They have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 6.20 ERA, and their best reliever in Bryan Abreu likely won't be available tonight after pitching two innings yesterday.

The tired Astros will go with opener Steven Okert before giving the bulk of the innings to rookie Ryan Weiss.  Okerk has posted a 4.20 ERA while allowing 7 earned runs in 15 innings this season.  Weiss is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.99 WHIP this season, allowing 16 earned runs, 6 homers and 43 base runners in 21 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own.  They are scoring 5.1 runs per game and should hang a big number on the Astros to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.

But I think Houston can do enough damage off Yoshinobu Yamamoto to contribute to this total.  He hasn't been very sharp in his last two starts against two poor lineups in the Giants and Marlins.  he has allowed 7 runs, 6 earned, and 17 base runners in 12 innings in those two starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.