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Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+125)

The Seattle Mariners will be highly motivated for a win Sunday to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series at home to the Toronto Blue Jays.  I expect them to win by multiple runs today due to their big advantage on the mound.

Bryce Miller is 22-18 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 63 career starts in the big leagues.  Miller has big home/road splits and has been a much better pitcher at home.  He has gone 12-7 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 33 career home starts.

Jose Urena is 44-77 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his career in the big leagues with just 640 K's in 955 2/3 innings.  Urena has posted a 8.59 ERA and 1.77 WHIP thus far this season while allowing 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Look for the Mariners to get their bats going today against Urena and for MIller to shut down the Blue Jays.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Sunday.

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15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Angels OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Orioles and Angels today.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles.  Tyler Anderson is due some regression for the Angels, so expect the Orioles to do the heavy lifting for us today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 8

The Seattle Mariners are quietly a dead nuts OVER team this season with an improved offense and a worse pitching staff.  They rank 6th in baseball scoring 5.0 runs per game and are 23-13-2 OVER in all games this season.

The Blue Jays are heating up at the plate scoring 6 runs or more in three consecutive games and 4 runs or more in eight of their last 10 games with a low of 3 runs during this stretch.  The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own.

Jose Urena is 44-77 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his career in the big leagues with just 640 K's in 955 2/3 innings.  Urena has posted a 8.59 ERA and 1.77 WHIP thus far this season while allowing 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 13 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 9 or more combined runs in six of those seven meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/A's OVER 9.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER ticket between the Yankees and A's today.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center with temps in the 70's at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento today.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the A's and Yankees.  They combined for 12 runs in Game 1 and 18 runs in Game 2 of this series.  The Yankees will likely make this a bullpen game, while the A's will go with Luis Severino.  It should be another high-scoring game today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Dodgers are 10-4 in their last 14 games while scoring a total of 104 runs in those 14 games for an average of 7.4 runs per game.  They are showing once again they have one of the best offenses in baseball this season.  The Dodgers are capable of covering this total on their own. While the Dodgers rank 3rd in baseball scoring 5.5 runs per game, the Diamondbacks are not far behind ranking 5th in baseball scoring 5.1 runs per game.

Tony Gonsolin hasn't pitched since 2023 and has made just two starts for the Dodgers this season and has been shaky in both despite getting to face the lowly Marlins.  Zac Gallen consistenly gets too much respect for the Diamondbacks.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts against the Dodgers that both went OVER the total with 19 and 12 combined runs.

This has been an OVER series.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with 10 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 meetings.  The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have combined for at least 11 runs in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-192)

The San Diego Padres had Thursday off while the Colorado Rockies were playing a double-header with the Detroit Tigers.  That rest advantage is a big reason I was on the Padres in a 13-9 victory in Game 1, and it's a big reason I was on them again in their 21-0 victory in Game 2.  I'll hop on them again for Game 3 for many of the same reasons today.

The Tigers mopped the floor with the Rockies last series.  They won 10-2 in Game 1 and 11-1 in Game 2 of the double-header Thursday to outscore the Rockies 21-3 and absolutely tax their bullpen in the process.  Add to that their 8-6 loss in extra innings on Wednesday, plus the 13-9 loss in Game 1 and the 21-0 loss in Game 2 to the Padres, and this Colorado bullpen is extremely taxed.

The Rockies are 6-33 this season scoring just 3.2 runs per game and allowing 6.6 runs per game.  Their -134 run differential is far and away the worst mark in baseball.  The Padres are 25-13 this season scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 3.2 runs per game.  They have a +54 run differential on the season.

The Padres will crush German Marquez, who is 0-6 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 33 earned runs in 30 innings.  Marquez allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Padres this season on April 11th.

The Padres have a big advantage on the mound behind Nick Pivetta, who is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Pivetta pitched 7 shutout innings with 10 K's opposite Marquez in a 8-0 victory over the Rockies at home on April 11th earlier this season.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Padres/Rockies OVER 11.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 11.5 ticket between the Padres and Rockies today.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center inside the most hitter-friendly park in baseball at Coors Field in Denver.

The weather has been great in Colorado this week which is a big reason they are 5-0 OVER in their last five home games combining for 14, 12 and 12 runs with the Tigers, and 22 runs with the Padres in Game 1 and 21 runs in Game 2 of this series thus far.  Their bullpen is extremely taxed after having to play a double-header on Thursday against the Tigers.

The Padres will do the heavy lifting again in us cashing this OVER ticket.  They will crush German Marquez, who is 0-6 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in seven starts this season, allowing 33 earned runs in 30 innings.  Marquez allowed 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Padres this season on April 11th.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the better team in this series despite being down 2-1.  They easily could have won both games they lost, blowing a double-digit late in Game 1 and losing in OT in Game 3.  In between was a 149-106 blowout in Game 2 that flashed their potential.  So they have actually outscored the Nuggets by 41 points at the end of regulation in this series despite being down 2-1.

This is where I think the lack of bench hurts the Nuggets.  They had to play 7 games last series, and they haven't had more than one day off in between games since that Game 7.  This will now be an early 3:30 EST afternoon start after finishing the late game in OT on Friday night.  All five starters played at least 43 minutes for the Nuggets in Game 3.

The Thunder shot 40-of-104 (38%) from the field and 9-of-35 (26%) from 3-point range in Game 3 and still went to OT with the Nuggets.  They are clearly due some positive shooting regression, and I expect them to make the proper adjustments to come away with a win and cover in Game 4 today to even this series.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.