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15* White Sox/Guardians ALDS ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +124

The road team is 6-0 in all Chicago postseason games this season.  The White Sox are 4-0 on the road and 0-2 at home.  They won't be intimidated having to go on the road and win a Game 5, and I like how this game sets up for them from a pitching perspective.

Gavin Williams pitched in Game 4 for the Guardians and closed out the 9th inning.  This will be the 3rd time the White Sox have seen Williams this series, and he cannot be expected to go deep into this game now.  And the Guardians also burnt up all their best relievers in Game 4, so though they will be available, they won't be as effective.  Closer Cade Smith was used in the last two games and received treatment at the park Friday and may not be available.

Williams is 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in eight career starts against the White Sox.  He is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five career home starts against them, allowing 13 earned runs and 35 base runners in 23 2/3 innings.

The White Sox get to go with their best starting in Sean Burke and he is rested.  Burke has been brilliant against the Guardians this season, going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 22 2/3 innings.  He has won both of his starts in Cleveland this season while allowing just one earned run in 10 1/3 innings.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on White Sox/Guardians OVER 7

The Chicago White Sox are a perfect 22-0 OVER in all games this season when entering on exactly one day of rest.  They are an elite offensive team scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.

The Cleveland Guardians have gotten their bats going the last two games.  They scored 9 runs in Game 3 and 9 runs again in Game 4.  They are swing with confidence, and both offenses should have their way again tonight.

I like the fact that Gavin Williams pitched in Game 4 for the Guardians and closed out the 9th inning.  This will be the 3rd time the White Sox have seen Williams this series, and he cannot be expected to go deep into this game now.  And the Guardians also burnt up all their best relievers in Game 4, so though they will be available, they won't be as effective.

The White Sox will go with Sean Burke before turning it over to a taxed bullpen that has been ineffective the last two games.  The Guardians will get their runs as well off Burke and this Chicago bullpen.

Finally, the forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7 ticket.  There will be 12-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Cleveland tonight.  This total just can't be this low with these two offenses up against these two taxed staffs with the wind blowing out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Oregon State -15

Oregon State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  The Beavers are 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with their two losses coming at Houston by 13 as 21-point dogs and Texas Tech by 11 as 25.5-point dogs.  They actually outgained Texas Tech by 120 yards in that loss, too.

The Beavers have since put together three straight blowout wins over Montana by 35 as 17.5-point favorites, UTEP by 26 as 11.5-point favorites and Colorado State by 30 as 7-point favorites, with the latter two both coming on the road.

This Oregon State offense is one of the best in the country.  The Beavers are scoring 37.0 points per game, averaging 497 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play.  Braden Atkinson is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.  He is completing 69.5% of his passes for 1,850 yards with a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a pair of scores.  WR Jesse Legree is electric, catching 28 balls for 741 yards and 9 TD.

San Diego State has been a dumpster fire this season.  The Aztecs are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS this season.  They beat FCS Portland State in their opener before three straight blowout losses to UCLA by 28, James Madison by 13 and Toledo by 25.

The market came in heavily against the Aztecs last week as they were battling a mumps outbreak.  It resulted in one of the most misleading finals of the entire college football season.  They upset Texas State 31-29 as 9.5-point home dogs.  They did so despite allowing 565 yards to the Bobcats while managing just 239 yards themselves, winning that game while getting outgained by a whopping 326 yards.  They benefited from a 96-yard kickoff return TD and a 32-yard INT return TD.

Oregon State will not let San Diego State off the hook this week.  The Beavers are going to be able to name their number against a poor SDSU defense that has allowed more than 1,000 yards the last two weeks to Toledo and Texas State.  This SDSU offense is also poor averaging just 303.8 yards per game and 4.8 per play this season.  They won't be able to match the Beavers score for score.  They are also still dealing with the lingering effects of the mumps.  Bet Oregon State Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Texas A&M/Missouri OVER 48

Both Texas A&M and Missouri have been in a lot of blowouts this season that have suppressed scoring late in games.  I think this total is too low as a result, and this will be a competitive game with both offenses needing to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters.  Missouri is a 3.5-point favorite over Texas A&M this week.

Missouri has a great offense scoring 37.6 points per game.  That great offense was aided by the addition of Ole Miss transfer, Austin Simmons.  He actually beat out Trinidad Chambliss for the starting job at Ole Miss last year and only lost it due to injury.  Missouri took advantage and nabbed him in the transfer portal.  Simmons has delivered, completing 67.6% of his passes for 1,270 yards with a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio while averaging 9.3 per attempt.  The Tigers just hung 45 points and 560 total yards on Florida last week.

No question Texas A&M isn't an elite offensive team which is why this total is as low as it is.  But the Aggies put up 50 points on Missouri State, 48 on Arizona State and 34 on Arkansas.  They were held in check in a 31-21 loss to Kentucky, but that game still saw 52 combined points.  And they were getting blown out 35-6 by LSU entering the 4th quarter and both teams pulled starters in a scoreless 4th.

This is one of the worst Missouri defenses of the Eli Drinkwitz era.  The Tigers lost a ton of talent on defense to the NFL, and they are dealing with a lot of injuries right now to boot.  They allowed 31 points and 499 total yards to Mississippi State two weeks ago.  Florida's offense was asleep at the wheel last week after beating Ole Miss the weak prior, and Missouri took advantage.  Texas A&M will be able to run the ball on them and that will open things up for Marcel Reed in the play-action passing game.

While there will be weather across the country this week, it won't impact this game at all.  Temps will be in the 80's with no wind and no rain, perfect for a shootout.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between Missouri and Texas A&M with 49 or more combined points in all seven meetings.  This total of 48 is too short.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on LSU -7.5

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

But the best unit on the field may just bet this LSU defense, which allows 15.2 points per game, 220.8 yards per game and 3.9 yards per play.  I think the fact that LSU lost at Ole Miss has them undervalued.  That was the National Championship Game for Ole Miss as they wanted revenge.  How LSU has responded since has been very telling.

LSU went on to beat Texas A&M 35-6 at home the next week handing the Aggies their worst loss of the season.  And last week they crushed McNeese State 63-14.  That game allowed their starters to rest in the 2H and stay fresh for this game against Kentucky this week.  Also, LSU needs style points to try and make the 12-team playoff from here on out, which works in our favor here.

Kentucky is an extremely tired team that won't have much left in the tank for LSU.  After a 45-17 home loss to Alabama, the Wildcats went on the road and upset Texas A&M 31-21 to give them a common opponent.  LSU outgained Texas A&M by 309 yards while Kentucky was actually outgained by Texas A&M by 15 yards.

Two weeks ago Kentucky came out flat and only led South Alabama 24-21 at halftime.  They outscored them 21-0 in the 2H in a misleading 24-point win.  South Alabama was also playing with a backup QB that game.  And last week, Kentucky escaped with a 35-34 (OT) win at South Carolina despite getting outgained by 64 yards.  That effort will have taken a lot out of them, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank for LSU this week.

Alabama crushed Kentucky 45-17 in Lexington.  Alabama is easily a Top 5 team in the country, and I really think LSU isn't far behind, and as the season plays out they could overtake Alabama.  I think we see a similar beat down here with LSU winning by double-digits at minimum.

There will be some weather in this game so the team that runs the football better will have the most success.  That will clearly be LSU.  Dual-threat QB Sam Leavitt has rushed for 220 yards and 6 TD this season.  He helps lead a LSU rushing attack that averages 237.8 rushing yards per game this season.  LSU's defense is elite against the run, allowing just 58.6 rushing yards per game and 2.0 per carry.  Kentucky allowed 232 rushing yards to South Carolina, 187 to Texas A&M and 155 to Alabama.  Bet LSU Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 52

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team with a thriving offense.  In their last three games they put up 39 points and 554 yards on Oregon, 59 points and 662 yards on Murray State and 41 points and 609 yards on West Virginia.  They are in a groove, and now will be even sharper offensively coming out of their bye week.  Eric Morris brought his up-tempo offense from North Texas with him and the Cowboys rank 23rd in tempo this season, snapping the ball every 24.3 seconds.

UCF is coming off two straight unders against two under teams in TCU and Houston who run pro-style, slow offenses.  That has depressed this total enough to provide value with the OVER.  The last time they played an offensive-minded team was Georgia State, when they won 44-30 for 74 combined points.  They allowed 485 yards to Georgia State, and now this is a big step up in class against Oklahoma State's offense.

The Knights aren't going to get away with playing slow in this game because Oklahoma State is going to score, and UCF is going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout.  I also think too much is being made of the injury to UCF QB Alonza Barnett.  He wasn't that good when he was healthy, and FIU transfer Keyone Jenkins is better than he gets credit for.  Jenkins is completing 69.7% of his passes in a couple starts thus far.

UCF also had to play three quality defenses in Pitt, TCU and Houston.  Oklahoma State does not have a quality defense.  The Cowboys allowed 31 points to Oregon despite knowing their plays.  They allowed 467 yards to West Virginia, including 335 on the ground.

While there is weather across the country, there won't be in Stillwater Saturday.  Temps will be in the 80's with no precipitation and only light winds for this game.  Both passing offenses will thrive, and this total of 52 is simply too short for a game involving the Cowboys' high-octane offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Appalachian State -9.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers look like one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have opened 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at NC State by 10 as 12.5-point dogs.  Their lone non-cover came in a 26-21 win over Charlotte as 16.5-point favorites, which was one of the most misleading finals of the season.  They outgained Charlotte by 188 yards in that game and the 49ers had a couple late scores to get in the back door.

Old Dominion is clearly much worse off without QB Colton Joseph, who transferred to Wisconsin and has revived the Badgers this season.  The Monarchs are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS this season with their lone win coming against FCS Norfolk State.  They lost by 23 at Virginia Tech and were upset at home by East Carolina.

But it's the last two games that are the most concerning for ODU.  They lost by 26 at home to James Madison while being held to just 247 total yards.  Their 42-10 loss at Georgia State as only 2.5-point dogs last week was even more concerning.  They were held to 146 total yards by a bad Georgia State defense and they allowed 470 total yards, getting outgained by a whopping 324 total yards.

It's a ODU defense that is wearing down by being on the field so much.  And now the Monarchs will be playing for a 6th consecutive week to start the season and they are out of gas.  Meanwhile, App State is coming off a bye week and will be the much fresher team.  I love the spot for the Mountaineers, who should have no problem winning this game by double-digits.  Bet Appalachian State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +14

Kent State has played well outside of blowout losses to South Carolina and Ohio State, their two non-covers this season.  They beat Wofford 36-15 as 10.5-point favorites, beat Ball State 26-13 as 3-point favorites and lost to Ohio 13-10 as 3.5-point dogs.  They outgained Wofford by 275 yards, outgained Ball State by 144 yards and outgained Ohio by 13 yards despite the loss.

Now they face another MAC team they can be competitive with in Western Michigan, and they shouldn't be catching 14 points here.  The Broncos have been grossly overvalued since nearly upsetting Michigan in Week 1.  They only beat Rice by 7 as 8.5-point road favorites, lost by 25 to Boise State as only 7.5-point dogs and only beat Buffalo by 3 as 13.5-point favorites.  That's a bad, bad Buffalo team that nearly lost outright to Robert Morris as 27.5-point favorites in a 3-point win the previous week.  Buffalo also nearly lost to Albany in a 4-point win as 18.5-point favorites.

Kent State has one of the best QB's in the MAC in Dru DeShields.  He has thrown for 752 yards while also rushing for 183 yards and 3 TD despite the tough schedule.  He will keep the Golden Flashes in this game for four quarters.  WMU doesn't have a good enough offense to be laying this many points.  The Broncos are averaging just 23.2 points per game, 303.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.

What will help keep Kent State competitive is the fact that both of these teams play at a snail's pace too, so there will be very few possessions in this game and fewer opportunities for the Broncos to pull away. Western Michigan ranks 131st out of 138 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.9 seconds.  Kent State ranks 117th snapping it every 29.3 seconds.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Carolina/Florida UNDER 62

This total has been inflated due to both teams being dead nuts OVER teams up to this point.  The Gamecocks have gone 4-1 OVER while the Gators have gone 4-1 OVER as well.  But this is now the highest total for any South Carolina game this season, and the 2nd-highest total for any Florida game.

But a big reason I'm on this UNDER is the weather, which will aid us in cashing.  There's a heavy chance of rain and there will certainly be wind in this game due to the hurricane.  That will make it difficult for both offenses to throw the ball and will hamper the kicking game.

These are two run-heavy offenses as it is which will keep the clock moving.  Florida averages 40 rush attempts compared to 28 pass attempts per game.  South Carolina averages 39 rush attempts compared to 34 pass attempts.  And both defenses have been solid against the run.

South Carolina allows just 100.4 rushing yards per game and 3.2 per carry this season.  The Gamecocks are expected to get back their best their best defensive player in DE Dylan Stewart from suspension for this game as well to make them even more formidable.  Florida is holding its opponents to 126.4 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry this season.

These are two teams coming off bad losses with South Carolina getting upset by Kentucky at home, and Florida getting blown out by Missouri on the road.  I think the intensity from both teams will come from the defenses after underwhelming performances.  And I think both defenses are a lot better than they showed last week, and that will play out this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* LSU/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 52

Lane Kiffin has this LSU offense thriving this season.  The Tigers rank 25th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.5 seconds.  They go even faster in competitive games like this one is expected to be with a single-digit spread.  The Tigers are averaging 43.6 points per game, 547.8 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play this season.

Kentucky has an offensive-minded head coach this season in former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein.  Stein has the Wildcats averaging 34.6 points per game, 416.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play despite a pretty tough schedule to this point.  The OVER is 4-1 in Kentucky's five games this season with 52 or more combined points in all five games.  This total of 52 is pretty short for a game involving Kentucky.

It's also short for a game involving LSU, which is 3-2 OVER in all games this season with 58 or more combined points in four of those five games.  The lone exception was a 35-6 home win over Texas A&M in which they took their foot off the gas late in a scoreless 4th quarter.  Both offenses will keep coming for four quarters in this one and it should easily top this 52-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +3.5

I love the spot for West Virginia Saturday.  The Mountaineers are coming off consecutive Big 12 losses to open the season to Oklahoma State at home and Iowa State on the road.  They actually led Oklahoma State by 3 before giving up the final 20 points in that game in the final 18 minutes.  They lost a back and forth shootout by 3 on the road to the underrated Cyclones.

But this is more of a play against Arizona as anything.  The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS this season and I just think they are being overrated after a 34-7 home win over Cincinnati, taking advantage of the first true road game for the Bearcats last week.  They barely beat Washington State by 10, failed to cover against Northern Illinois and Northern Arizona at home, and lost against by far the best team they've faced this season in BYU by 11.

Now Arizona will be traveling out East for the first time this season for a 12:00 EST start time in Morgantown, which will be a 10:00 AM body clock game for them.  They aren't used to playing this early, and after a late-night game last Saturday against Cincinnati at home last week they have even less time to recover.

And they need to recover given all the injuries they have already suffered on offense.  They are going to be without their three best WR's, their top TD, and two starters along the offensive line this week.  They are without WR's Spivey (22 receptions, 314 yards), Richardson (15, 170) and Hunter (13, 155).  Their defense has been solid, but keep in mind they lost five NFL draft picks in the back seven this offseason and I just don't think they have faced many good offenses that can take advantage.

West Virginia is an elite offensive team that will take advantage.  The Mountaineers are averaging 37.4 points per game, 472 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.  They also rank 5th in the country in tempo, snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds.  That up-tempo offense will test the tired legs of Arizona, and I expect the Mountaineers to take control in the 2H.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Duke/Georgia Tech UNDER 48.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 48.5 ticket between Duke and Georgia Tech.  There is an 80% chance of rain throughout and 15-20 MPH sustained winds.  That's going to make it very difficult to pass the ball and for both kicking games.  This will be a low-scoring, defensive battle as a result.

Both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, too.  Manny Diaz has been winning at Duke with defense.  And this Duke defense has been dynamite this season, allowing just 11.0 points per game, 261.8 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech wants to run the ball, and Duke won't allow it giving up just 63.8 rushing yards per game and 2.3 per carry this season.

The loss of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida has been felt, as has the loss of QB Haynes King.  The Yellow Jackets are only scoring 27.0 points per game, averaging 370 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  They are only rushing for 126.3 yards per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  Nothing will come easy for them against Duke.

The Yellow Jackets have a respectable defense allowing 26.0 points per game and 5.5 per play.  They allow 4.3 yards per carry on the ground.  Duke averages 42 rush attempts per game compared by 27 pass attempts.  The Blue Devils want to run the ball too, so the clock will be constantly moving, especially given the weather conditions.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between Duke and Georgia Tech.  We've seen 45 or fewer combined points in each of the last three meetings, and that's even with one OT game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.