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Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Tampa Bay Rays -115

The Tampa Bay Rays have big advantages on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Kansas City Royals and should be bigger favorites as a result.  The Rays are scoring 4.5 runs per game compared to 4.2 runs per game for the Royals, who play in a much more pitcher-friendly park.  The Royals also have a ton of injuries offensively right now.

Griffin Jax has posted a 3.17 ERA while allowing 19 earned runs in 54 innings this season.  Jax has a 2.63 ERA on the road.  He has pitched 10 innings without allowing a single earned run in his last two starts against the Royals.

Noah Cameron is 4-5 with a 4.50 ERA in 15 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 4.61 ERA in eight home starts.  Cameron allowed 5 earned runs and 10 base runners in 5 innings of a 5-3 loss to the Rays in his last start on June 24th opposite Jax.

The Rays were -155 favorites in that game at home, and now they are only -115 road favorites in the rematch less than a week later.  There's clearly value on Tampa Bay in Game 1 of this series tonight.  Bet the Rays Tuesday.

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15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pirates/Phillies OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Pirates and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.  The Pirates have a potent offense scoring 5.2 runs per game this season.

The Phillies are hot right now scoring 4 runs or more in 11 of their last 14 games overall, including 10 runs or more three times.  They are averaging 6.4 runs per game in their last 14 games.  With both offenses thriving right now, this should be a slug fest.

The Phillies should crush Bubba Chandler, who is 3-7 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Chandler allowed 5 runs, 4 earned, in 3 innings on May 16th earlier this season in his lone career start against Philadelphia.

No question Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  But he has regressed of late allowing 5 earned runs in 5 innings to the Nationals in his last start on June 25th, and 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Brewers on June 14th.  He has allowed at least one homer in four consecutive starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Red Sox OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Nationals and Red Sox tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 15 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.

The Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 50-33-3 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.  The Red Sox are heating up at the plate scoring 4 runs or more in seven consecutive games, including 5 runs or more in six of them.

Cade Cavalli is 4-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in eight road starts..  He is backed by a bad Washington bullpen with a 4.99 ERA this season.

Connelly Early is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in eight home starts this season while allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 43 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a tired Boston bullpen that has closed out a ton of close games recently and will be playing for a 15th consecutive day.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Astros OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 54-31-1 OVER in all games this season.  That includes 22-9-1 OVER in their last 32 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 21 of their last 29 games, and 10 or more in 19 of those.  They Twins are scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game this season.

The Astros have a potent offense when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are scoring 4.5 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  They have gone 45-39-3 OVER in all games this season.

Joe Ryan is 5-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.03 WHIP In 17 starts for the Twins this season.  Ryan is 3-4 with a 5.84 ERA in nine career starts against Houston, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three career road starts against the Astros.  He is backed by a terrible Minnesota bullpen with a

Michael Burrows is 3-8 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 7.05 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in eight home starts.  He is 0-2 with a 12.28 ERA in two career starts against the Twins, allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 7 1/3 innings.  He is backed by a mediocre Houston bullpen with a 4.43 ERA this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.