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Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Boston Red Sox -117

I like the spot for the Boston Red Sox tonight.  After going 32-5 over their previous 37 games, the Red Sox have now lost four straight.  They will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays after dropping the first two games of this series.

Ranger Suarez is 4-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 20 starts for the Red Sox this season, including 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Suarez has owned the Blue Jays, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in three career starts against them while firing 19 shutout innings with 22 K's.

Jose Soriano is 9-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.26 WHIP In 23 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 10 home starts.  Soriano was rocked for 7 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of an 11-9 loss to the Red Sox in his lone career start against them last season.  Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.

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20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/White Sox OVER 8.5

The Reds and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  They have scored at least 5 runs in five of their last 10 games.  The White Sox are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those eight games, and 9 or more six times.  This total of 8.5 is too short tonight given the poor quality of both starting pitchers.

Rhett Lowder is 4-7 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 17 starts and three relief appearances for the Reds this season.  He has been atrocious on the road, going 2-6 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 10 road starts while allowing 36 earned runs and 77 base runners in 42 innings.

It's hard to believe the White Sox thought Luis Castillo would be an upgrade when they traded for him.  Castillo is washed, going 3-9 with a 5.30 ERA and 4.0 WHIP in 18 starts and three relief appearances this season, allowing 61 earned runs and 17 homers in 103 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts.  Castillo has allowed 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Reds as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Royals/Dodgers OVER 9

Both the Royals and Dodgers have ran through their bullpens in high-leverage situations in the first two games of this series.  The Dodgers won 6-5 in Game 1 in walk off fashion, and 5-4 in Game 2 in walk off fashion in extra.  A lot of the top bullpen arms on both teams won't be available tonight in Game 3 as a result.

That's bad news for both teams who are throwing starters who won't go deep in this game.  Daniel Lynch will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Royals.  He allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, in 1 2/3 innings of a 6-4 loss to the Cubs in his first start this season on August 7th just five days ago.  He is backed by an awful Kansas City bullpen with a 5.34 ERA this season and a 6.02 ERA on the road.

Eric Lauer is 6-6 with a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts and three relief appearances for the Dodgers this season.  He has allowed 50 earned runs and a whopping 22 homers in 92 innings.  Lauer hasn't pitched more than 6 innings in any start this season, and he has been pulled before completing the 6th inning in 11 of his 15 starts.

The Royals are 4-0-1 OVER in their last five games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in all five games.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.0 runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-130)

The Tampa Bay Rays are 8-0 in their last eight games overall to improve to 73-46 on the season with the best record in the American League.  They have six wins by multiple runs during this 8-game winning streak, including a 10-6 win over the A's in Game 1 and a 12-4 win over the A's in Game 2 of this series.  It should be another blowout victory in their favor tonight.

The A's are extremely banged up offensively and have the worst staff in baseball.  The A's are 7-31 in their last 38 games overall with 23 losses by multiple runs during this stretch.  They are allowing 5.8 runs per game this season.

The Rays have a big advantage on the mound today with ace Drew Rasmussen, who is 11-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 11 road starts.  Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four career starts against the A's, allowing just 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 21 innings.

Jack Perkins has been a dumpster fire for the A's this season.  He is 2-8 with a 7.04 ERA in 10 starts and 18 relief appearances, allowing 60 earned runs and 15 homers in 76 2/3 innings.  Perkins is 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA at home this season, allowing 36 earned runs and 10 homers in 45 innings.  The A's have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.85 ERA on the season and a 7.40 ERA at home.  Bet the Rays on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +152

The Chicago Cubs have no business being this big of a road favorite over the Washington Nationals with David Peterson on the mound.  I actually give the pitching advantage to the Nationals despite rookie Jackson Kent making his MLB debut tonight.

Peterson is the weakest link in this Chicago rotation.  He is 6-7 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 15 starts and eight relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 63 earned runs and 159 base runners in 106 innings.  Peterson has allowed 8 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in two starts against the Nationals in 2026 alone.

Kent has gone 9-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 20 starts in the minors this season with 105 K's in 94 1/3 innings.  He is one of Washington's top prospects, and he will have the element of surprise with the Cubs not knowing what to expect tonight.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

20* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cubs/Nationals OVER 9.5

The Nationals are 64-52-5 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  The Cubs are scoring 5.2 runs per game and have been red hot at the plate of late.  They have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games overall.

The Cubs will stay hot at the plate against rookie Zak Kent, who will be making his MLB debut for the Nationals.  Kent is backed by a poor Washington bullpen with a 4.82 ERA this season and a 5.32 ERA at home.

But the Nationals should hang a big number on the Cubs, too.  David Peterson is the weakest link in this Chicago rotation.  He is 6-7 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 15 starts and eight relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 63 earned runs and 159 base runners in 106 innings.  Peterson has allowed 8 earned runs and 15 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in two starts against the Nationals in 2026 alone.

The Cubs and Nationals have combined for at least 9 runs in each of their last five meetings.  They combined for 14 runs in Game 1 Tuesday, and it should be more of the same in Game 2 today.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.