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Jack's Free Pick Monday: Orlando Magic +2.5

The Detroit Pistons have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East.  They have nothing to play for over these final four games.  They are tipping their hand that they don't care about these games already by ruling out Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson tonight, with Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart already out.  Caris LeVert has been downgraded to questionable as well.

The Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back which is why the Pistons came out favored.  But this line should flip to Orlando favored by game time.  The Magic will be without Franz Wagner for this one, but they have been without him for most of the season.

Orlando sits in 9th place in the East with just two games separating the 6th through the 10th seeds.  All five teams fighting for these spots should be max motivated the rest of the way, including the Magic, who are playing some of their best basketball of the season when they have needed it most.

The Magic are 3-1 SU in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back against the hottest team in the East in the Hawks.  They beat the Suns at home, while also handling both Dallas and New Orleans on the road.  They should be able to handle the short-handed Pistons, who will be without four of their top five scorers tonight.  Bet the Magic Monday.

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20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks ML -115

The Atlanta Hawks have a lot to play for sitting in 5th place in the East.  They are desperate to avoid the play-in and to win the Southeast Division.  They are only 2 games ahead of both the Raptors and 76ers for 5th place.  They can grab a stranglehold on the division title with a win tonight.  Atlanta is sitting 2.5 games ahead of the Hornets within the division.

The Hawks are playing their best basketball of the season to put themselves in this position.  They have gone 18-2 SU & 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  A whopping 16 of those 18 wins have come by double-digits.  Atlanta is fully healthy and showing what it is capable of when that's the case.

The New York Knicks don't have nearly as much to play for.  They are locked in to either the 3rd or 4th seed in the East.  The Cavaliers are showing their hand that they are ok with being the 4th seed to try and avoid the Celtics in the 2nd round.  The Knicks are thinking the same way that they would be fine with being the 4th seed.  Their main focus is getting healthy going into the playoffs.

The Knicks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and pretty much just going throught he motions.  They have lost their last three games against playoff contenders all by double-digits on the road in the Hornets by 11, the Thunder by 11 and the Rockets by 17.  New York is 21-19 SU & 14-26 ATS on the road this season.  Atlanta is 13-0 SU in its last 13 home games and will make it 14 in a row tonight.  Bet the Hawks on the Money Line Monday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/White Sox OVER 8.5

There will be 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to center in Chicago tonight that will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Orioles and White Sox.  Both lineups are loaded with HR hitters that will take advantage.

Both the Orioles and White Sox have atrocious staffs and bullpens.  The White Sox have a 6.31 ERA and 1.66 WHIP while allowing 32 earned runs in 45 2/3 innings as a bullpen.  The Orioles 'pen has a 4.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP while allowing 18 earned runs in 35 2/3 innings.

Brandon Young went 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 12 starts as a rookie for the Orioles last season.  Grant Taylor is no more than an opener for the White Sox today.  He has posted a 4.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Cardinals/Nationals OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team going 7-1-1 OVER in all games this season with 9 or more combined runs in eight of their nine games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Nationals right now.

The Nationals have a solid lineup that is scoring 6.1 runs per game this season.  But they have the worst staff in baseball allowing 6.6 runs per game.  They just went for 19, 15 and 14 combined runs in three games with the Dodgers over the weekend.

Zack Littell was rocked for 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his lone action this season.  Littell has allowed 8 runs and 2 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts against St. Louis.  Andre Pallante is 25-29 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with just 324 K's in 465 innings in his big league career for the Cardinals.  Pallante allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 6 innings in his last start against the Nationals.

Both teams have atrocious bullpens with the Nationals sporting a 5.85 ERA and 1.63 WHIP allowing 26 earned runs and 10 homers in 40 innings, while the Cardinals have a 4.97 ERA and 1.63 WHIP allowing 21 earned runs in 38 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Marlins OVER 8

One of the best-kept secrets in baseball is that the Miami Marlins are 96-65 OVER in all home games since 2024.  The Marlins remain an OVER team this season going 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all six games.

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the more underrated lineups in baseball.  They should hang a big number on Janson Junk and the Marlins.  He is 7-7 with a 4.84 ERA with just 116 K's in 154 1/3 innings in his career in the big leagues.

The Marlins should also get their bats going against Brandon Williamson, who is 5-6 with a 4.63 ERA in 27 career starts in the big leagues.  Williamson allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings to the Pirates in his first start this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Hawks OVER 226.5

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight as the New York Knicks visit the Atlanta Hawks.  The Knicks rank 4th in offensive rating this season while the Hawks rank 8th, but they have been even better than that during their 18-2 run over their last 20 games.  This total of 226.5 has been set too short tonight.

The Hawks have scored at least 122 points in 14 of their last 18 games overall.  The Knicks have exploded for 136 and 130 points in their last two games coming in.  The Knicks and Hawks have combined for at least 226 points in four of their last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on 76ers/Spurs OVER 236.5

The San Antonio Spurs are thriving offensively.  They have scored at least 123 points in seven of their last eight games overall and will hang a big number on the 76ers tonight to lead the way to us cashing this OVER 236.5 ticket.

The 76ers have been thriving offensively since getting Embiid, Maxey, George and Oubre back healthy.  They have scored at least 115 points in six of their last nine games overall including over 150 points twice.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the 76ers and Spurs with 248 or more combined points four times.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* UConn/Michigan NCAA Championship No-Brainer on UConn +7

Dan Hurley is 21-4 ATS as a head coach in the NCAA Tournament.  That includes a perfect 15-0 ATS in the Round of 32 or later.  The Huskies are 15-1 SU in non-conference games this season with their only loss coming to Arizona by 4.  They are 11-0 SU in neutral site games this season.

Since the 2023 NCAA Tournament, UConn has gone 18-1 ATS with its only non-cover coming against Furman in the first round this year.  Since 2009, the Huskies are 34-7 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games.  This is a winning program, and at some point you have to give Dan Hurley his respect.  I think the Huskies come out and earn it again tonight playing with a big chip on their shoulder that they are once again underdogs.

Michigan has been very 3-point reliant this tournament.  The Wolverines have managed to shoot 44.4% or better from 3 in four of their five NCAA Tournament games and are shooting 45% for the entire tournament thus far.  I have to think they are due some negative shooting regression in this one.

The Wolverines suffered a big blow when their best player in Yaxel Leneborg (15.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG) suffered a leg injury against Arizona and only played 15 minutes.  He won't be anywhere near 100% for this game just two days later.  That injury really gives UConn a great shot of pulling off the upset tonight.  Bet UConn Monday.