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15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Penn/St. Joe's OVER 152

Penn is a dead nuts OVER team under Fran McCaffrey who was the same kind of head coach at Iowa.  Fast tempo, elite offense and terrible defense.  Penn ranks 17th in adjusted tempo this season through three games.

They lost 112-70 at Illinois for 182 combined points.  The Quakers also lost 81-76 at Navy for 157 combined points.  I like this Penn offensive attack with 4 returning starters and great chemistry for McCaffrey.  But the defense is atrocious.

St. Joe's also looks to be playing faster this season ranking 63rd in adjusted tempo.  The Hawks are 2-1 OVER going for 155 combined points with Longwood and 163 with USF.  They are led by a 3-guard attack of Myers (18.7 PPG), Ranson (17.0 PPG) and Glover-Toscano (15.0 PPG).

The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between Penn and St. Joe's.  They combined for 157 points last season and 155 points in 2024.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets -12

I love the spot for the Denver Nuggets tonight.  They are fully healthy and rested after having the last two days off.  Their opponent in the New Orleans Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 142-111 loss to Memphis in the NBA Cup last night.

These blowout losses have become a staple for the Pelicans, who are dealing with a lot of inner turmoil right now from the fallout of the Dejounte Murray trade request.  They are also banged up playing without Murray, Murphy III and McGowens among others.

The Pelicans are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and have shown a lot of quit.  Their last four losses in particular were alarming.  They lost by 16 to the Clippers, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA.  They came back the next night and lost by 51 to the Warriors.  They lost by 34 to the Nets, also one of the worst teams in the NBA.  And last night in the NBA Cup they showed zero fight in their 31-point home loss to the Grizzlies.  It's a bad situation that isn't going to get any better tonight.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks -2

I love the spot for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They will be motivated to bounce back from their worst loss of the season to the Timberwolves on Thursday.  They had gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games with one of those losses coming by a single point to the Spurs.

This is an equally terrible spot for the Cavaliers as it is a good spot for the Mavs, creating the perfect storm.  Cleveland will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a 133-121 loss to the Miami Heat in the NBA Cup last night.  They have nothing left in the tank and it has shown in going 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

That's why a plethora of Cleveland players are on the injury report today due to injury management, and I wouldn't be surprised if all of them sit.  Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson have all been downgraded to questionable.  Both Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill have been ruled out.  I would still like the Mavs at -2 even if all four of those players listed questionable end up playing.  This is a free bingo square tonight and we'll take advantage.  Bet the Mavericks Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Pelicans OVER 235

The Pelicans have just quit playing defense amidst their inner turmoil from the fallout of the Dejounte Murray trade request.  In their last four games they allowed 142 points to the Grizzlies, 145 to the Nets, 138 to the Warriors and 139 to the Clippers.

Now they take on one of the best offensive teams in the NBA in the Nuggets, who will hang a similar number on them tonight to pave the way to us cashing this OVER 235 ticket.  If the Nuggets get at least 135 like I think they will, I think we can count on the Pelicans to get 100-plus.

The Nuggets and Pelicans have combined for at least 238 points in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Tennessee/Texas A&M UNDER 44.5

There will be 15 MPH winds in College Station on Saturday that will aid us in cashing this UNDER 44.5 ticket between Tennessee and Texas A&M.  But there's a lot more reasons to back the UNDER, especially above the key number of 44.

Texas A&M has really been an UNDER team in conference play.  The Aggies have gone 5-1 UNDER in their last six games overall finishing with 41 or fewer combined points in five of those six games.  You could argue the Aggies have the worst offense in the SEC this season as QB Marcel Reed has taken a big step back.  He is averaging just 6.2 yards per pass attempt with a 8-to-8 TD/INT ratio and only 206 rushing yards on 2.6 per carry this season.

The Aggies have been held to just 16.0 points per game in SEC play this season.  But their defense has kept them in games, allowing just 18.7 points per game on the season.  They rank 22nd in scoring defense and 28th in total defense this season.

Tennessee has gone 7-2 UNDER this season as Josh Heupel has really leaned into relying on his defense to win games instead of the high-octane offenses he has been known for in the past.  The Vols rank 10th in scoring defense this season allowing just 15.1 points per game.  They are also 17th in total defense at 296.4 yards per game.  The Vols are only allowing 15.7 points per game in conference play.

This Tennessee offense has been disappointing all season scoring just 24.8 points per game in SEC play.  QB MacIntyre has a 2-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season and offers nothing in the way of a dual-threat with 15 carries for zero yards.  They are a run-first offense, but they are without 2nd-leading rusher Duane Morris (434 yards, 6.6/carry, 3 TD).

Tennessee has been an up-tempo offense under Heupel up until this season as the Vols rank just 63rd in tempo snapping the ball every 26.2 seconds.  Texas A&M ranks 93rd in tempo snapping the ball every 27.5 seconds.  I expect both defenses to have their way with these two offenses today in another SEC grinder between two teams who are used to playing in defensive battles.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State/Washington State OVER 66.5

The books simply cannot set this Colorado State totals high enough.  The Rams are 8-1 OVER in all games this season going over the total by an average of 21 points per game.  They have a very good offense scoring 35.8 points per game and averaging 6.7 yards per play.  They also play fast ranking 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.2 seconds.

But what makes Colorado State such an OVER team is they have one of the worst defenses in college football history.  A change in coordinators hasn't even mattered. The Rams allow 44.8 points per game, 542.2 yards per game and 8.3 yards per play.  Seven of their last eight games have seen 64 or more combined points, and six of them have seen 82 or more combined points, so this total of 66.5 is short for a game involving Colorado State.

Washington State is coming off its bye week and looking forward to hanging a big number on Colorado State.  The Cougars played Oregon State a few weeks ago, a team that profiles similarly to Colorado State with a great offense and a terrible defense.  Oregon State won 48-30 for 78 combined points.  The Cougars had 459 yards against Oregon State. I think they get 500 plus today to keep up with the Rams in a shootout.

This is a poor short-handed Washington State defense as well after losing all 11 starters in the offseason.  They allow 27.4 points per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Their lack of depth is a problem.  The Cougars are also playing a lot faster this season ranking 41st in tempo snapping the ball every 25.4 seconds.  And their offense has been much better since switching to dual-threat QB Owen Eshelman, who has thrown for 779 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 203 yards and 3 TD in the last three games.

The forecast looks fine for a shootout with temps in the 40's and 10 MPH winds with no precipitation.  These are two teams with little to play for so it should be a carefree game with no defense and all offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Jacksonville State/Western Kentucky OVER 54

Western Kentucky is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Hilltoppers rank 14th in tempo this season snapping the ball every 23.9 seconds.  Their offense has taken off since switching to dual-threat Brock Glenn at QB.  They had 34 points and 464 yards on Missouri State, 477 yards on Delaware and 42 points and 497 yards on Middle Tennessee in three of their last four games.

But this WKU defense is one of the worst in the country.  The Hilltoppers rank 125th in scoring defense allowing 33.3 points per game and 122nd allowing 6.3 yards per play.  In their last two games they allowed 35 points and 495 yards to Delaware and 51 points and 513 yards to Middle Tennessee.

Jacksonville State is an elite offensive team with one of the best QB's in C-USA in Caden Creel.  He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,992 yards and 15 TD, while also rushing for 798 yards and 6 scores.  He will have one of his biggest games of the season against this soft WKU defense.  Creel leads a Jacksonville State offense averaging 29.1 points per game while ranking 21st in the country at 6.6 yards per play.

The Gamecocks have solid defensive numbers this season, but they have also benefited from an extremely soft schedule of opposing offenses.  They did allow 27 points to Georgia Southern, 33 to NDSU and 26 to Kennesaw State against the three best offenses they have faced.  I would argue WKU is the best offense they have faced all season, and they will give up some points today.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps around 50, no wind and no rain.  The OVER is 2-0 in the last two meetings over the last two seasons with 71 combined points in 2025 and 64 combined points in 2024.  This total of 54 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3

This is Oklahoma State's chance to make a statement and throw their hat in the ring for the 12-team playoff and potentially a Big 12 title.  I fully expect them to take advantage and to put forth one of their best efforts of the season.  It will be good enough to win and cover against an overrated Texas Tech team that is living on borrowed time this season.

Texas Tech will be playing for a 5th consecutive week.  After losing 37-24 at Cincinnati three weeks ago, the Red Raiders came back with a very important 34-26 home win over Arizona last week that kept their Big 12 title hopes alive.  They were life and dead with West Virginia last week in a wild 53-48 victory.  I certainly question how much the Red Raiders have left in the tank this week.

Texas Tech has been overvalued for much of the season with some very fortunate covers along the way against Sam Houston State and Colorado.  They needed two defensive touchdowns to cover by a 0.5 point against Sam Houston, and they were actually outgained by 60 yards by Colorado.  They were outgained by 27 yards by Cincinnati, and they only outgained Arizona by 43 yards.  They outgained WVU by 56 yards but allowed 582 total yards and 7.8 per play to the Mountaineers.

Texas Tech isn't nearly as dominant as it was last season but it continues to be priced like the team it was a year ago.  The Red Raiders have seen a big drop off defensively, and their QB play has been poor all season which is why they have switched to Thomas Castellanos.  While Castellanos is a good runner, he's a much worse passer than Will Hammond.  Castellanos has only completed 57.1% of his passes this season.

Texas Tech is dealing with a bunch of injuries especially at WR and RB on offense.  They will be without 2nd-leading receiver Coy Eakin, and two of their top three RB's are banged up.  One is out and one is likely to play.  This is also a tired, banged up Texas Tech defense that has allowed 415 or more yards in four consecutive games and an average of 34 points per game in those four games coming into this one.

All three of Oklahoma State's losses this season came on the road.  You can throw out the Tulsa loss.  They only lost by 3 at Houston and by 2 at Iowa State, so they are very close to being unbeaten.  The Cowboys blasted K-State 66-28 on the road last week and should still be pretty fresh coming into this one after getting to pull their starters late.

It's going to be a raucous atmosphere for a 9:30 PM EST kick in Stillwater Saturday night.  Oklahoma State has been dominant at home this season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by 28.5 points per game.  That includes their 39-31 win over Oregon back when the Ducks were healthy in a misleading final as the Cowboys outgained the Ducks by 273 yards.  They also beat UCF by 14 and Colorado by 33 in Big 12 play.

This Oklahoma State offense is unstoppable.  The Cowboys have put up at least 499 total yards and at least 39 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They rank 1st in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game, 1st in total offense at 533.6 yards per game and 1st in passing offense at 339.1 yards per game.  Drew Mestemaker is a Heisman Trophy candidate, completing 66.7% of his passes for 2,962 yards with a 29-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 3 scores on the ground.

That makes this a terrible matchup for this Texas Tech defense, which ranks 133rd in the country allowing 287 passing yards per game.  And they haven't seen a pass offense nearly as potent as this one.  Texas Tech allowed 297 passing yards to Colorado, 380 to Arizona, 417 to Arizona and 303 to West Virginia.  That's a Mountaineers offense not known for passing, and they had 303 yards on only 16 attempts for 18.9 yards per attempt.

Texas Tech is 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on the road this season.  Their lone loss came 37-24 at Cincinnati.  They beat Colorado 29-7, but that was one of the most misleading finals of the season as they only managed 315 yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Buffaloes.  And they needed a late comeback to beat Oregon State 35-24 as 25.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 120 yards by Oregon State in another misleading final.  This will be far and away the toughest game for the Red Raiders this season, and I fully expect them to melt.  I expect the Cowboys to rise to the occasion in this must-win spot for them.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +30

This is a play against Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish are coming off the win they had to have last week holding on to beat Miami 31-24 at home.  They can now afford to lose another game and they'd still make the college football playoff.  They got their sweet revenge, and now I expect the Fighting Irish to be flat as a pancake this week.

This is also a sandwich spot with another big game against SMU on deck next week.  The Fighting Irish just want to get in and get out with no more injuries.  They were missing as many as 6 starters on defense at times against Miami and the Hurricanes nearly came back and won despite being without their best weapon on offense in Malachi Toney.  I expect the Irish to be cautious with these injured defenders and to sit several of them this week with the hope that they can get healthy in time for SMU next week.

Boston College will treat this like its National Championship Game.  The Eagles have put on some performances over the last couple months that make me believe they can hang around in this game.  They only lost by 7 to VA Tech as 14.5-point dogs.  They only lost by 9 at SMU as 21.5-point dogs and actually outgained the Mustangs by 104 yards.  They upset Pitt at home and Georgia Tech by 22 on the road.  They did get blown out by Duke, but came back with a game effort in a 7-point loss to Florida State last week.

This Boston College defense is much better than it gets credit for.  The Eagles allow just 343.9 yards epr game and 5.2 yards per play this season, holding opponents to 61 yards and 0.8 yards per play below their season averages.  And there's a lot to like about BC QB Mason McKenzie.  He has thrown for 1,616 yards and 10 TD while also rushing for 676 yards and 5 TD, and his dual-threat ability will be big in extending drives.

Notre Dame has no incentive to get margin anymore.  Win out and they will be in the 12-team playoff, which was their goal all along after missing out by one spot last year.  I think we get a flat effort from the Fighting Irish today which will allow the Eagles to stay within this inflated number.

Bill O'Brien is 8-0 ATS at Boston College as an underdog of +14.5 or more and covering the spread by an average of 15 points per game. He relishes this spot and gets his players to respond.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Penn State -9.5

Minnesota just went through a gauntlet of facing three straight Top 15 teams over the last three weeks.  The Gophers beat Iowa 13-10 at home despite getting outgained by 79 yards and benefited from 4 Iowa turnovers.  They came back with a 23-16 (OT) loss at Indiana.  Somehow that game went to OT despite Minnesota getting outgained by 204 yards.  And last week they lost 34-20 at home to UCLA while getting outgained by 170 yards.

It's easy to see that Minnesota should have lost all three games and probably all three in blowouts.  But they managed to keep them close with good special teams.  It looked like they were out of gas last week especially defensively allowing 34 points, 466 yards and 8.5 yards per play to a UCLA offense that isn't very good.  And that will carry over into this week.

We saw a similar situation play out earlier this season when Minnesota was coming off a 20-14 upset home win over Michigan, which looked like a great win at the time.  The Gophers fell flat on their faces the next week, losing 41-13 on the road at Purdue.  That blowout loss to the Boilermakers looks real bad now when you see what Purdue has done since that loss, getting blown out and beat by everyone.

Minnesota just doesn't have a good offense, period.  The Gophers rank 129th in the country in total offense at 307.6 yards per game and 129th at 4.9 yards per play.  In Big Ten play alone, the Gophers have been held to 18.2 points per game, 264.3 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They just don't have the firepower to keep up with Penn State today, nor do they have the gas left in the tank it's going to take.

Penn State has rebounded nicely from a 4-game skid.  The Nittany Lions beat Purdue 31-17 at home as 10-point favorites.  That was actually a misleading final as the Nittany Lions outgained the Boilermakers 457 to 175, or by 282 total yards.  They came back and upset Washington 28-25 on the road last week.  That was also a misleading final as they outgained the Huskies 414 to 306, or by 108 yards.  They led 28-6 at halftime before calling off the dogs.  They won't make that same mistake this week.

This will be a night game at Penn State which is one of the toughest places to play in the country for a home game at night.  I expect them to shut down this Minnesota offense with a defense that allows just 19.3 points per game, 297.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  I would be surprised if Minnesota scores more than 14 in this game, and I fully expect Penn State to get to 24 or more to win this game by double-digits.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Baylor +7.5

Baylor interim head coach Joe Klanderman has his players playing freely.  The Bears have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in his two games.  They followed up their dominant 41-9 road win at UCF with a 42-31 home win over Iowa State.  And now the Bears will relish this opportunity to try and knock off BYU on the road.

This is a terrible spot for BYU.  They are coming off the 28-20 Holy War loss to rival Utah last week where Bachmeir threw 4 INT to give the game away.  They will have a hard time getting back up off the mat after that loss.  What makes it more difficult is that fact that BYU has to be one of the most tired teams in the country.

Indeed, BYU will be playing for a 8th consecutive week.  Prior to the Holy War loss to Utah, they only beat Arizona State by 7 at home, lost in OT to UCF on the road, and upset Notre Dame by 4 at home.  So they have played four straight games decided by one score which takes more out of you.  I fully expect this game to be decided by a single score, too.

Baylor will be one of the best defenses BYU has faced this season.  The Bears only allow 17.0 points per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  It has been one of the biggest surprised in the Big 12, and their defense has actually been better than BYU this season.

Offensively, this is also a close game.  BYU averages 31.0 points per game while Baylor averages 31.9 points per game.  And one factor here that I think will work in Baylor's advantage is they play at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  That up-tempo style will test the tired legs of BYU's defense even more in this one.

Klanderman has really allowed QB DJ Lagway to play freely and it has paid dividends.  He has thrown for 558 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio the last two weeks since he took over.  He rushed for 119 yards and a score on Iowa State last week as well.  He is one of the most talented QB's in the Big 12 and won't be phased by the road atmosphere at BYU after playing at Florida.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on FAU/Tulsa OVER 74.5

The books just can't set these Florida Atlantic totals high enough.  The Owls rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.3 seconds.  They play faster than anyone else with an all gas no breaks philosophy.  The result has been one of the best offenses in the country, but also one of the worst defenses.

The Owls have gone 8-1 OVER in all games this season finishing with 76 or more combined points in five consecutive games coming in, so this total of 74.5 isn't that high for a game involving FAU.  They went for 80 combined points with Navy, 100 with Rice, 89 with North Texas and 89 with UTSA in their last four games coming in.

FAU averages 40.2 points per game on offense and allows 35.0 points per game on defense.  The Owls have a pass-happy offense averaging 318 passing yards per game which means more clock stoppages too.  This is a tired FAU defense that allows 6.9 yards per play this season.  They will be playing for a 5th consecutive week.  They just allowed 56 points and 479 rushing yards to Army, 49 points and 608 yards to Rice and 48 points and 644 yards to North Texas.

Tulsa is a great OVER partner because they also play fast.  The Golden Hurricane rank 28th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  So there will be a ton of possessions in this game.  The forecast looks great for a shootout too with temps around 50, less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.

This is a much more talented Tulsa offense than most know about.  The Golden Hurricane have gone 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 89 points with North Texas, 73 with Army and 70 with Tulane.  The Golden Hurricane have done the heavy lifting scoring an average of 40.6 points per game in their last five games.  That includes the 60 points they just put up on Tulane coming out of their bye week.  And now this FAU defense will be the worst stop unit they have seen all season.  This has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* C-USA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FIU/Delaware OVER 53.5

Delaware is a dead nuts OVER team when QB Nick Minicucci is healthy and playing.  Minicucci is completing 65.2% of his passes for 1,885 yards with a 16-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season.  He returned three games ago and the Blue Hens beat Missouri State 61-38 for 99 combined points, beat WKU 35-21 for 56 combined points and lost to Kennesaw State 42-40 for 82 combined points.  He has a 11-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those three games.

Delaware likes to play fast ranking 39th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.3 seconds.  They don't play a lick of defense allowing 29.1 points per game, 412.6 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season.  They rank 102nd in scoring defense, 115th in total defense and 105th in yards per play allowed.  This total of 53.5 is very short for a game involving Delaware.

FIU has profiled much more like an OVER team in recent weeks after a long run of unders to start the season.  The Golden Panthers are 3-1 OVER in their last four games finishing with 49 or more combined points in three of those four games.  Their defense has really hit a low point.  They allowed 27 points and 7.2 yards per play to Jacksonville State, 26 points and 6.8 per play to Middle Tennessee and 49 points and 6.7 per play to Liberty.

This FIU offense put up 404 yards on Jacksonville State and then a season high 494 yards and 7.0 per play against Missouri State last time out.  They will have similar production against this Delaware defense, which is one of the worst stop units they have faced all season.  They are going to be forced to try and keep up in a shootout today and play much faster.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Rice -2

Tulane has a lot of turmoil around its program right now.  Things boiled over in the media this week after a 60-10 loss to Tulsa last week where it looked like they quit.  It was the 3rd straight concerning effort for them after losing 42-19 at home to UTSA, and needing OT to beat one of the worst teams in the country in Charlotte.

Tulane is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS this season and fortunate to have that record.  Their four wins show that.  They beat South Alabama by 4 despite giving up 478 yards and getting outgained by 54 yards.  They beat Southern Miss by 3, and Southern Miss is one of the worst teams in the country.  Their win over Memphis was a complete fluke as they were outgained by 163 yards but forced 6 turnovers.  And they needed OT to beat Charlotte and only outgained them by 12 yards.  They could easily be 0-9.

Rice is 1-8 this season and much better than its record would indicate.  They lost by 7 to Western Michigan, by 2 to UTSA and by 2 to FAU.  They had 608 yards on FAU and outgained them by 139 yards.  They were only outgained by 62 yards by North Texas last week, and North Texas and UTSA are the top two teams in their conference.

The matchup favors the Owls.  They average 271 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry.  Tulane allows 215.3 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  The Owls should get whatever they want on the ground in this one.

The Owls finally take a big step down in class here and it's safe to say they are highly motivated for a win after eight consecutive defeats.  This is their chance to let their hair down and get that elusive win against a Tulane team that is on quit watch.  Tulane is a tired team playing for a 6th consecutive week.  Rice just had a bye two weeks ago and is the fresher team.  Bet Rice Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas State/Coastal Carolina OVER 51.5

These are two of the worst defensive teams in the Sun Belt who have been solid offensively.  This total of 51.5 is too short today.  That's especially the case with a forecast favorable for a shootout with temps in the 50's, 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.

Arkansas State averages 27.4 points per game and 6.1 yards per play on offense.  The Red Wolves allow 26.3 points per game and 6.2 yards per play on defense.  The rank 41st in yards per play offense and 119th in yards per play defense.

Coastal Carolina averages 24.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 24.7 points per game and 5.9 yards per play on defense.  They rank 103rd in total defense and 102nd in yards per play allowed.  These are two bad, bad defenses that both offenses should have plenty of success against.

I really like both QB's in this game.  Arkansas State's Trey Owens is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,133 yards with a 12-to-8 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 277 yards and 4 scores.  Coastal's Deuce Bailer has thrown for 2,168 yards with a 19-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 217 yards.  Both QB's will welcome this opportunity to face two of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Wake Forest +1.5

Wake Forest continues to get no respect as an underdog to SMU today when they are clearly the better team and will prove it on the field Saturday as they keep their ACC title and 12-team playoff hopes alive.  Jake Dickert is legitimately one of the best coaches in the country that nobody knows about.

Wake Forest has gone 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall covering the spread by an average of 23.9 points per game.  That's how underrated this Demon Deacons team has been.  They upset Louisville on the road to start this streak, the same Louisville team that SMU lost to.  The last 6 results have been absurd beating Stanford 57-3, NC State 38-14, Cal 41-7, Virginia 51-7 and Merrimack 77-0 with a backup QB.

Wake averages 43.3 points per game, 487.7 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense.  The Demon Deacons give up 15.9 points per game, 310 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 27.4 points per game and outgaining them by 3.0 yards per play.  They rank 1st in the country in scoring margin and 2nd in the country behind Georgia in yards per play margin.  Elite.

SMU's two losses came to Syracuse and Louisville.  The Mustangs were fortunate in home wins over Boston College by 9 and Virginia by 10, and they only beat FSU by 3.  They were outgained by 104 yards at home by Boston College.  While they only beat Virginia by 10, Wake beat Virginia by 44.  While they lost to Louisville by 10, Wake beat Louisville by 3.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Duke +13.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for Miami.  The Hurricanes just played their biggest game of the season last week and lost 31-24 at Notre Dame.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat in time to face a Duke team that some in playing their best football of the season and max motivated to pull off the upset to get back in the ACC title race.

Motivation is also high for the Blue Devils who won the ACC Championship last season with Mensah at QB.  He bolted for Miami, and the Blue Devils want to prove it wasn't all him.  They have backed it up this season by going 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have elite numbers averaging 33.0 points per game, 425.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play on offense.  They allow 13.0 points per game, 282.1 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play on defense.  They are outscoring opponents by 20 points pre game and outgaining them by 143 yards per game and 1.6 per play.

Duke should still be very fresh following consecutive blowout wins over Boston College 47-2 and NC State 41-3 the last two weeks.  The same cannot be said for Miami, which will be playing for a 5th consecutive week with 3 wars in between.  They needed OT to beat FSU 43-35 as 19.5-point home favorites.  They only won 38-35 at UNC as 13.5-point favorites.  And they lost outright to Notre Dame 31-24 last week.

The key here is that Miami is extremely banged up.  They just lost their best weapon in Malachi Toney for the rest of the regular season at least.  He has 73 receptions for 1,027 yards and 13 TD and is irreplaceable for them.  They are also down two of their best CB's in Antoine and Frederique Jr. with Poyser questionable as well.  Teams have been able to pass on their leaky secondary.

This Miami defense has been very poor allowing 403 or more yards in four consecutive games, and 295 or more passing yards in five straight.  Teams have been able to throw all over them.  Duke QB Walker Eget is in line for a huge game in this one.  And RB Nate Sheppard has been awesome with 1,189 rushing yards and 17 TD.  The Blue Devils have the firepower to keep up, and they clearly have the better defense in this matchup.  Asking Miami to win this game by two TD's to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Kansas/WVU OVER 67.5

West Virginia is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Mountaineers play at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 21.9 seconds.  They are an elite offensive team that plays zero defense.  The result has been an 8-1 OVER record this season.

These WVU totals have been flying over the number in Big 12 play.  They have gone for 65 or more combined points in five of their six Big 12 games with the lone exception being TCU, an under team that plays slow, plays elite defense and has a terrible offense.  WVU went for 101 combined points with Texas Tech last time out after 87 combined points with Cincinnati, 83 with Arizona and 87 with Iowa State.  This total of 67.5 is too short for a game involving the Mountaineers.

WVU ranks 17th in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, 11th in total offense at 480.8 yards per game and 28th at 6.4 yards per play.  They rank 7th in rushing at 263.6 yards per game.  But this is a bad, bad WVU defense that ranks 131st in scoring at 34.6 points per game, 137th in total defense at 501 yards per game and 137th at 7.1 yards per play allowed.

Kansas has played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in Big 12 play in ASU, Utah, K-State, Baylor, TCU and UCF.  They also played Missouri in non-conference.  This is a chance for the Jayhawks to let their hair down and let it rip against one of thew worst defenses they will have played this season.  The Jayhawks have still managed to go 6-3 OVER in all games this season.

Kansas brought back one of the best offensive coordinators in program history in Andy Kotelniki in the offseason.  They are back to being dynamic on offense, and they are also playing up-tempo ranking 35th in tempo snapping the ball every 25.2 seconds. They just got in a 33-32 shootout with UCF last week, and I look for them to put up their biggest point total of the season since the 55 against MTSU and the 51 on Long Island.

This Kansas defense leaves a lot to be desired and isn't very good at stopping the run.  They allowed 287 rushing yards to Utah and 359 to Kansas State.  They allowed 545 total yards to the Utes and 568 to K-State.  This WVU offense is the best they will have seen since allowing those 41 points to Utah.  Kansas wants to run averaging 201 rushing yards per game and WVU cannot stop the run either allowing 178 rushing yards per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on James Madison -4

James Madison is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS this season and one of the best Group of 6 teams in the country.  The Dukes still believe they are a live for the 12-team playoff even if outsiders say no, and that's all that matters.  They have been running up scores on teams all season, including last week when they crushed Southern Miss 54-23.

The Dukes really should be 10-0.  Both losses came in OT to App State by 3 and Troy by 3.  They outgained App State by 57 yards and 0.7 yards per play and they outgained Troy by 59 yards and 0.7 per play.  They have elite numbers this season.  They rank 8th in scoring offense at 40.2 points per game and 20th at 6.5 yards per play.  They rank 27th in scoring defense at 19.3 points per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.

UConn is also solid on offense scoring 32.9 points per game.  But the Huskies have a leaky defense allowing 26.7 points per game.  They are 4-5 this season with their four wins coming against FCS Lafayette, Southern Miss, Temple and UMass.  They lost by 24 to Maryland, by 3 to Miami Ohio, gave up 42 points to Syracuse, gave up 35 points to Air Force and gave up 38 points to UNC.  Their defense is by far the worst unit on the field and that will be the difference in this game.  They won't get stops against this elite JMU offense.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

20* CFB Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on JMU/UConn OVER 57

James Madison profiles as a dead nuts OVER team.  The Dukes rank 22nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds.  They have one of the best offenses in the country scoring 40.6 points per game which ranks 8th in the nation.

The Dukes are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall.  They have gone for 62 or more combined points in six of those nine games.  This total of 57 is pretty short for a game involving the Dukes, who still believe they are alive for the college football playoff and will keep scoring late if they get the chance like they have all season.  That includes last week when they beat Southern Miss 54-23.

UConn ranks 21st in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  So this game is going to see a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points with two teams that rank in the Top 22 in tempo.  The Huskies are also solid on offense and suspect on defense.

They average 32.9 points per game and 6.7 yards per play on offense while allowing 26.7 points per game and 393 yards per game on defense.  Their last two games were very concerning defensively allowing 35 points to Air Force and 38 to UNC in games that saw 61 and 59 combined points, respectively.  They also recently got in a 42-41 shootout with Syracuse.

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 40's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.