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Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Ohio/Western Michigan UNDER 47.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 47.5 ticket between Ohio and Western Michigan tonight.  Temps will be in the 30's in Kalamazoo with double-digit sustained winds and gusts of around 25 MPH.  This game will be played mostly on the ground, which will keep the clock moving.

Neither team is in a hurry offensively, either.  Ohio ranks 100th in tempo snapping it every 27.6 seconds while Western Michigan ranks 93rd at 27.3 seconds in between snaps.  There's a lot on the line in this game with the winner moving into 1st place in the MAC alone, while the loser will have an uphill climb.  Defensive intensity will be high.

Western Michigan is a dead nuts UNDER team as it is.  The Broncos and their opponents have combined for 45 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  This total of 47.5 is very high for a Broncos team with one of the worst offenses in the country, but one of the best defenses in the MAC.

The Broncos rank 19th in rushing percentage running the ball on 58.21% of plays on 42 attempts per game.  They rank 122nd in passing yards per game at 161.1.  They are 127th at 4.7 yards per play on offense.  Western Michigan ranks 12th in total defense at 291.9 yards per game and 23rd at 4.9 yards per play.  They are elite against the run, ranking 22nd at 3.3 yards per carry allowed.

Ohio ranks 32nd in rushing percentage running the ball on 56.8% of plays.  The Bobcats average 41 rushing attempts per game.  They won't have much success on the ground against this WMU defense.  Their defense has been very good in conference play, allowing 334.8 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  They will be able to stack the box to stop the run against WMU tonight.

Ohio and its opponents have combined for 49 points or fewer in five of its last eight games, including 46 or fewer in four of those.  Given the forecast, what's at stake, how slow these teams play, and the matchup, this total of 47.5 is too high tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

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15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -10

SMU is one of the most talented teams in the ACC.  It's Year 2 under Andy Enfield after he went 24-11 in his first season with the Mustangs.  Three starters are back in Boopie Miller (13.2 PPG, 5.5 APG), Samet Yigitoglu (10.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and BJ Edwards (9.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG).

Miller (17.0 PPG), Edwards (13.0 PPG) and Yigitoglu (12.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) are off to solid starts through two games this season.  Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. (16.5 PPG) and Wichita State transfer Corey Washington (14.5 PPG) are showing they can contribute right away as this is one of the better starting 5's in the country.

Murray State is in a rebuilding year off a 16-17 campaign last season that led to the firing of Steve Prohm.  The Racers have a first-year head coach in Ryan Miller, a Creighton assistant.  They will be breaking in an entirely new roster with three Creighton transfers.

I think we are getting SMU cheap tonight because they have opened 0-2 ATS, while Murray State has opened 2-0 ATS against Omaha and Mississippi Valley State.  This is a big step up in class for the Racers and their first true road game.  I don't expect it to go well for them.  Bet SMU Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on UTRGV +18

UTRGV is catching too many points tonight against Boise State.  The Vaqueros went 16-15 in Kahil Fennell's first season last year and look like one of the more improved teams in the country this season.

UTRGV opened with a 96-81 loss at Baylor as 24.5-point dogs.  That's a Baylor team that went on to cover in a 78-69 win as 6-point favorites over a solid Washington team.  The Vaqueros went on to rout Southern Utah 95-72 as 1.5-point road favorites last time out, covering the spread by 21.5 points.  That's a Southern Utah team that only lost by 17 at Arizona State in their opener.

Boise State tipped its hand with just how much a rebuilding year this is going to be with a shocking 79-78 loss to Hawaii Pacific in the opener.  A 101-77 win over Utah Valley as 11.5-point favorites last time out doesn't ease that fact.  Utah Valley is a rebuilding team of its own that lost four starters including all of its double-digit scorers from last season.

Boise State loses three starters including its two best players in Tyson Degenhard (18.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Alvaro Cardenas (11.5 PPG, 6.9 APG) from last season.  It's going to continue being a rocky ride for the Broncos tonight to open non-conference play.  Bet UTRGV Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -9.5

The New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites, the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites and the Nets by 36 as 15.5-point favorites.

The Knicks will continue their string of double-digit blowout victories against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is one of the most overrated in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  JA Morant acts like he doesn't even want to be in Memphis anymore, and he just doesn't have much help outside of Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Grizzlies have rarely even been competitive this season as five of their seven losses have come by 13 points or more.  That includes road losses to the Warriors by 16 and the Raptors by 13, as well as home losses to the Thunder by 14, the Rockets by 15 and the Heat by 32.

The rest situation favors the Knicks, too.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 11th game in 19 days and have not had two days off in between games all season.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Celtics/76ers NBC No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -115

Tough break with Joel Embiid getting ruled out out of nowhere since I released this play.  But I still think the 76ers have the goods to get the job done as they have gotten used to playing without Embiid for the last two seasons.  If anything I'd just downgrade this to a 15* instead of a 20*.

The 76ers want revenge from a 109-108 home loss to the Celtics in the NBA Cup on October 31st.  They will want this game more, and I could see the Celtics having a letdown here after already beating the 76ers.  I also just don't think this Celtics team is that good with who they are putting on the court this season with the losses of Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford.

The 76ers are 3-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points, so they are very close to being 5-0 at home.  The Celtics are 3-3 SU on the road with two of their wins coming by a combined 5 points and the other coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans.  They lost by 13 to the Magic and by 10 to the Knicks.

The Celtics will be playing their 10th game in 17 days as they haven't had two days off in a row once this season.  The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -10

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have six losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 10-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with how well the Toronto Raptors are playing right now.  The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Philadelphia after beating the Hawks by 12 on the road in the NBA Cup the night prior.  It was a clear letdown spot.

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off.  Their last four wins have all come by 11 points or more, so laying 10 here is not a big stretch.  Those four wins came against the Hawks, Bucks, Grizzlies and Cavs all by double-digits, so it was a tough schedule as well.  The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of backup F Agbaji.

The Nets will be without second-leading scorer Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and key role player Day'Ron Sharpe (6.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG).  The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating allowing 126.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Nets winning by 11, 30 and 17 points.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.