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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Denver Nuggets -2.5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing in the altitude for a 2nd consecutive night when they travel from Utah to Denver to take on the Nuggets.  They made easy work of the short-handed Jazz last night to lessen the blow, but it's still a bad spot for the Bucks.

The Nuggets have a big rest advantage coming in on two days' rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  Denver has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA at 30-6 SU & 23-13 ATS at home this season.

The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Denver is 14-4 ATS in home games after winning three of its last four games this season.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday.

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15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East and within 3 games of the Hawks, Raptors and Bulls for the final three spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers just got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury last night and are still 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They did get blown out by 25 points, so that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter to remain somewhat fresh for the Hawks tonight, a team they will be extra motivated to beat since it's one of the teams they are trailing.

Asking the Hawks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall with a 9-point home loss to Boston, a 21-point home loss to Minnesota, an 8-point road loss at San Antonio as a double-digit favorite and a 1-point loss at Minnesota.  Top three scorers Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable to play for the Hawks tonight.

Indiana is 10-2 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Pelicans/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225

The Los Angeles Clippers are now an UNDER team without second-leading scorer Paul George (23.8 PPG).  They are having to slow it down and run their offense through Kawhi Leonard.  Five of their last seven games have seen 221 or fewer combined points with the UNDER going 5-2 during this stretch.

The New Orleans Pelicans have been even more of an UNDER team without Zion Williamson.  They are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games overall with 226 or fewer combined points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

Both teams are fighting to make the playoffs here as the season comes to an end, so the defensive intensity will be there.  And this has been an UNDER series of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 203, 206, 219 and 202 combined points.  The UNDER is also 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in the six unders, and only 227 in the lone over.

The UNDER is 30-11 in Clippers last 41 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five road games.  The Clippers are 7-0 UNDER in home games when playing against a team that wins 40-49% of their games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn ML -130

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.1 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.5 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 3rd-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston and Alabama ahead of them.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted defense.

The Huskies have been the most impressive team in the tournament to this point.  They beat Iona by 24, St. Mary's by 15 and Arkansas by 23. That means they will still be very fresh for this game against Gonzaga because they didn't have to work too hard in the 2nd half against Arkansas Thursday night.  

Gonzaga just survived against both TCU and UCLA to get here.  They beat TCU by 3 and UCLA by 3.  They also played the late game Thursday night, so they have even less rest than UConn heading into this one.  I like backing the team that played the early game because they get the chance to watch their opponent after winning and get a head start on the scouting.

Gonzaga also benefited from TCU being without its best big man, and UCLA being without two starters in G Clark and F Bona.  Drew Timme had huge games against both of those teams to lead the way, but things aren't going to come so easy against UConn.  The Huskies rank 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, 14th in 2-point percentage and 25th in block percentage.  They have three stud big men who can contain Timme.

UConn also ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound percentage, getting 38.9% of their own misses.  Gonzaga is an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  The Bulldogs are 73rd in adjusted defense and 235th in effective field goal percentage allowed.  The Huskies are going to own them on the boards and limit Timme, which is going to be key to them getting this win.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team in this matchup.

UConn is 13-1 ATS in none-conference games this season.  Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season.  UConn is 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 12 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  The Huskies continue rolling right into the Final 4 with a win here.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.