Kyle Hunter Premium Picks

*3 Star Play Under* Old Dominion and East Carolina both lost their star quarterbacks from a year ago, and these teams look a whole lot different on offense now.

Old Dominion has slowed down to playing a slower than average pace after playing very fast the last few seasons. The Monarchs have a veteran defense that should be elite in the front seven against other Group of 6 teams. They just don't have the offense to win shootouts on a regular basis anymore.

East Carolina could only muster 24 points against a below average App State defense last week. The Pirates are still better than average on defense, but their high flying passing attack has been significantly weakened without Houser.

I had this game circled in the preseason to bet toward the under. I haven't seen anything in the first couple games from these two that makes me want to change my mind.

A hard fought defensive battle is what I expect.

Take the under.

*I would bet this as low as 47.5. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The latest forecasts here make this game looked interesting for Saturday. There is rain in the forecast for Ann Arbor on Saturday, and the latest forecasts are upping the rainfall amounts. It looks like heavier rain is possible during this game. Importantly, the wind forecasts keep moving up as well. The expectations now are for sustained winds of 12 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. This kind of rain and wind can really change the game.

UTEP was unable to score a point against Oklahoma in game one. The Miners have slowed their tempo down to where they are bottom 50 in the nation in tempo.

Michigan is bottom 25 in the nation in tempo so far this year. The Wolverines should be run heavy here and keep things vanilla before they play a really good defense (Iowa) next week.

My number was already below the posted total and with the added factor of rain and wind I am firing here.

Take the under.

*I would play this as low as 47*

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are averaging 46 points per game so far this year. That is 6th best in FCS. South Dakota has a really good ground game and a quarterback who does have the potential to air it out when needed.

Boise State just played a 38-20 game against Memphis. The Broncos won that game, but their defense was absolutely gashed in that game. Memphis averaged a whopping 10.0 yards per play. The lack of late down success and a key turnover really held Memphis back from scoring. That game should have been much higher than 38-20.

Boise State's offense should be too much for South Dakota to handle. Boise State put up 578 yards of total offense on Memphis last week. Their offensive line has been great thus far.

South Dakota has allowed at least 20 points in all three of their FCS games thus far. They allowed 55 points in their loss to Iowa State last year. I think their defense will be pushed around here.

Take the over.

*Note I would take this as high as 59. Thanks and good luck.

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a game I would have expected to play under the total in the preseason, but here we are. North Texas is 125th out of 138 teams in the country in tempo. The Mean Green are playing very slowly, and they want to run the football a lot.

Texas State is 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats certainly prefer to play quickly. Beau Sparks is the star wide receiver for Texas State. He missed last game and is a game time decision for this one. Sample is another key wide receiver and he is questionable as well.

Texas State's passing attack wasn't as good as normal against a poor pass defense in UTSA last week. Texas State threw the ball 30 times for just 192 yards. That game was 31-26 and it was a game of two strong offenses who like to play quickly. Here, we have a total set higher than that and one of the teams is looking to stall and control the football.

This is a really high total in today's college football, and I'm going to go under this high total.

Take the under.

*I would play this one as low as 61. Thanks and good luck*

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have completely changed the way they play this year. They talked in the preseason about slowing the pace down and controlling the clock. So far this year, they are the 5th slowest paced team in the country (138 teams). They were 13th quickest in the nation last year.

TCU is also changing their style of play. The Horned Frogs have a new OC and they want to run the football more and slow things down a bit. They are now slightly slower than the national average in tempo after consistently being a fast paced team under Sonny Dykes in the past.

TCU's defensive front is their strength. I don't think Arkansas State can have much success running the football here.

TCU rolled up a big number on Grambling last week, but this offense still has plenty to prove.

With the new slower tempo from them both, I think this number is set too high.

Take the under.

*I would play this as low as 55. Thank you and good luck*

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights talked a lot about playing at a faster pace once again this year. UCF is coming off an ugly 12-7 loss to Pitt last Saturday. The weather was terrible in that game and it definitely changed the way that game went. Pitt is a solid front seven on defense too, and they got into the backfield a lot.

In this game, UCF is playing against an inferior opponent that has a very big specific weakness on the defensive front seven. UCF's Alonza Barnett should have far more time to throw in this game. The ground game for UCF will have more success here as well.

Georgia State's Cameran Brown is a good quarterback, and McCreary has come on at running back. The Panthers still have their clear problems on defense, but this Georgia State offense is above average. I think they can do some damage against a UCF defense that isn't dominant.

Scott Frost's teams have been good at running up the score against weaker opponents leading to overs. Frost's teams have been favored by 17 or more at home on 10 occasions, 7 of those 10 have gone over the total and the average margin for the whole 10 game sample size is +9.25 points over the posted total.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* I've actually been pretty impressed with the San Jose State defense so far this year. They didn't give up too many explosives to an excellent USC offense. They gave up only 4.13 yards per play against Eastern Michigan on the road as well.

Fresno State is an excellent defense. The Bulldogs have one of the best G6 secondaries in the country. San Jose State wants to throw the ball around with Weaver. I think Fresno State is more built to slow that down than the normal team.

Fresno State will want to run the ball early and often here. The Bulldogs also want to control the tempo and keep this one lower scoring.

The game last year between these two was only higher scoring (55 points total) because there were loads of turnovers that led to short fields.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals want to play slowly and keep games lower scoring. They don't have the offensive firepower to get into shootouts.

Liberty's offense was broken last year. It has been awful again so far this year. Chadwell seems to not be able to find a quarterback to run his unique system. Liberty struggled and only scored 24 points on FCS Gardner Webb yesterday. Liberty could only muster 13 points against JMU in the season opener.

Tempo wise both teams are crawling. This should be a game that doesn't have many possessions.

Liberty's defense is strong enough in the trenches to hold down the Ball State running attack. A lot of rushing attempts in this game.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on UCLA* The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a emotionally draining loss in overtime at home to Wake Forest. Wake Forest isn't a very good team, but they put up 6.0 yards per play against this Purdue defense.

UCLA's offense struggled for much of the game against San Diego State before having a big 4th quarter. Bob Chesney was disappointed with his team's effort on Saturday. I think they will be sharper in this one. Even with their C effort on offense, UCLA won 28-10 with their defense holding San Diego State to just 3.4 yards per play.

Purdue is poor against the run, and I think Knight and Woods will do major damage on the ground in this one. Nico is a good dual threat QB who should have a good game here too.

Purdue offensively is unlikely to be able to consistently have success against this much improved UCLA defensive front.

I'm a big fan of Chesney and I think UCLA is still undervalued.

Take UCLA.