Kyle Hunter Premium Picks

*3 Star Play Under* Niko Medved has really had his Minnesota Golden Gophers slowing the pace of the game down. Minnesota is bottom 15 in the country in tempo. The Golden Gophers aren't likely to want to run here either.

San Francisco is an underrated defensive team. The Dons usually don't take on strong defenses, and while Minnesota is only ok on defense for a major school, I think they will be good enough to bother San Francisco quite a bit here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* Maryland-Eastern Shore is dreadful on offense. They use up nearly the entire shot clock and then put up a lot of bad contested midrange jumpers. Eastern Shore is actually very solid on defense though. They should be able to hold down a Binghamton team that hasn't been able to score on non Division I opponents either.

Binghamton prefers a slow pace and they should look good defensively against Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys do play very fast, but the Cowboys are better on defense than offense. Oklahoma State is an aggressive defense that contests shots very well.

Nicholls State has been very solid on defense this year. They held Kentucky to only 77 points in the first game of the season. They had just one poor defensive showing against a really good Murray State offense on the road.

Nicholls is a very poor shooting team. They are likely going to struggle to get open looks against OK State. Nicholls will try to slow the pace here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners are a completely different team at home. UTSA's offense is on a whole different level at home on their fast track in the dome. UTSA is averaging 48.3 points per game at home. They are also allowing 27.3 points per game at home. UTSA is accustomed to track meets on their home turf. Owen McCown has been poor on the road, but at home he has a 74.4% completion percentage and a 13/0 touchdown to interception ratio.

East Carolina wants to play as fast as possible. They are top three in the nation in all pace metrics. The Pirates want to throw the ball a ton too, and that is a good fit for this one since UTSA is terrible against the pass. UTSA is 114th nationally in yards per pass attempt allowed. UTSA is also 124th in passing explosiveness allowed. Katin Houser's numbers are better on the road than home, and he should play very well here. UTSA's red zone defense has been a big weakness all season long.

Both teams will be airing it out and East Carolina will push the tempo in a big way. This game should go down to the wire. I expect both offenses to put up a lot of points here.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals defense is very good. Louisville is 12th in success rate allowed this season. The Cardinals are 9th in PPA/pass allowed. They are 6th best in passing down success rate allowed. SMU is a pass heavy team. The Mustangs have the 20th highest percentage of plays being a pass of anyone in the country. Louisville is 33rd best in the country in explosiveness allowed.

The SMU defense has been excellent all season. SMU is 3rd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. The Mustangs should shut down the run game here. SMU can be thrown on at times, but they are still 35th in PPA/pass. The important factor for me here is Louisville's offensive line is very weak. They are 87th in havoc allowed. SMU is 6th nationally in havoc created. They should be in the backfield here.

Louisville has a quarterback problem with Miller Moss playing poorly and questions about who will play QB this game.

I see both defenses with an advantage.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* Air Force was an absolute over team earlier this year. The defense is still bad, but they have gotten a bit better. They were allowing more than 8 yards per play in the first half of the season, and they are at 6.4 YPP allowed in their last three games. They actually played pretty well against a good UConn offense last week.

Air Force star quarterback Liam Szarka was injured last week (fracture in hand/arm of throwing arm). Air Force coach said Szarka likely out for the season. The Falcons offense had been struggling a little more of late, and without Szarka this simply isn't the same offense. New Mexico has been excellent at stopping the run. The Lobos are 20th in Defensive Line yards. They are 24th in YPC allowed and 20th in rushing explosiveness allowed. New Mexico's weakness has been against the pass, but with Szarka out Air Force is severely limited through the air.

New Mexico is playing at a very slow pace, and the Lobos offense is just 105th in rushing explosiveness.

Both of these teams will run the football a bunch here, and this total hasn't been adjusted enough for Szarka's injury.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have a real opportunity to make the College Football Playoff. It is their defense that has been extremely dominant. James Madison is first in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 5th in explosiveness allowed. They are also 8th in havoc created.

Washington State has been a great under team of late thanks to a couple key things. First, they are playing at an extremely slow pace. Washington State is bottom five in the country in tempo in the last month. They also are only 122nd in yards per play on offense. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Second, Washington State has really improved on defense of late. They have allowed just 3.6 yards per play in their last three games (3rd nationally). Washington State is allowing only 11.5 points per game in their last six games and two of those games were against Ole Miss and Virginia.

Both teams are run heavy, and I expect the clock to be moving quickly here.

Take the under.