Nick Parsons Premium Picks

This is an 8* TOTAL PUNI$HER on the OVER LBSU/CSU Fullerton.

Really love the way this one sets up to be more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. 

That said, this game can easily go well OVER this really low total, and still be somewhat of a defensive affair, and that's exactly what I'm expecting.

As I said, just overall a great "situational" play.

LBSU is just 1-8 SU. It's desperate to break its slide. It's off the 82-66 loss to SJSU and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. 

Cal State Fullerton is just 2-6 after a 64-55 loss at Pacific last time out. The Titans have faced a stiffer schedule, but after seeing the total go UNDER in seven straight, the general betting public is a little too quick to back another low-scoring battle in this one.

When these teams played in February, CSU Fullerton managed the 76-71 road win and I'm expecting another wide-open "shootout" on Thursday as well.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BIG TEN GOM on Penn State.

Purdue is 7-1 and it's won three straight, but I think it'll have its hands full on the road here. I also think it'll get caught looking ahead to its home game vs. Maryland after this.

Penn State is 7-1 as well after an 87-64 win here over Buffalo. The Nittany Lions only loss came against Clemson, but Penn matches up really well vs. the Boilermakers.

I think home court advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched.

I'm bypassing the spread option though and instead playing PENN STATE on the very reasonable moneyline option.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE GOM on the Hurricanes.

Just a really great opportunity and play here on Carolina. The Canes are super desperate here after three straight losses.

Note that looking back though Carolina has responded well in this spot for bettors by going 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row.

Carolina does indeed play with revenge as well after a 6-4 loss at Colorado in early November, and note that the Canes are also 4-1 in their last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Colorado broke a two-game slide with a tough 5-4 win at Buffalo on Tuesday, but with tough upcoming games at Detroit, New Jersey and Pittsburgh, I say the visitors not only have a letdown, but also get caught looking ahead.

I think this line is going to go up significantly before game time, so run, don't walk to get to the window to place this wager.

The play is CAROLINA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF GOM on the Nuggets.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

Denver has been trading wins/losses over its last eight games. Off a 119-115 win over Golden State, it'll be looking to reverse that trend here.

After losing two straight, the Cavs have bounced back with two straight wins over Boston and Washington. 

But with a two-game Eastern swing vs. Charlotte and Miami, I think the home side will get caught looking ahead.

I think Jokic will give the Cavs major matchup issues and while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOM on the OVER Packers/Lions.

A big NFC North matchup between two gunslinging QB's and two of the league's highest-scoring teams, and in my opinion everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Green Bay is 9-3 after three straight victories. The Packers fell 24-14 to Detroit at home back in early November, but note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

Detroit though is 11-1 after its most recent 23-20 win here over Chicago. It's been getting the job done with defense over the last three games, but it also has faced three straight offensively challenged opponents (Jags, Colts and Bears.)

The Lions will have to be careful not to get caught looking ahead, as they do in fact have a difficult final schedule, with upcoming games here vs. Buffalo, a Chicago, at San Francisco, and here at home to Minnesota to close.

Either way, the short week is going to have more of an adverse effect on these defenses in my estimation and because of that, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP