Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-02-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks -140 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Diamondbacks -140 The Key: The D-backs have the edge on the mound with southpaw Pat Corbin. The Rockies are 10-0 in his starts this season, during which he's posted an ERA of 1.71. He should have plenty of success against a Chicago lineup that has a terrible .264 on-base percentage against lefty starters. Chicago's Edwin Jackson has struggled, especially at home. The Cubs are 0-5 in his home starts this season, during which he's posted an ERA of 7.81. Take Arizona. | |||||||
06-01-13 | Miami Heat -2.5 v. Indiana Pacers | 77-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Heat -2.5 The Key: Indiana is a terrific basketball team, but it's missing one thing - LeBron James. James was the difference in Game 5, and he'll be the difference tonight. The Heat are 2-0 in closeout games in these playoffs and 5-0 in closeout games dating back to last year's playoffs. They won Game 6 at Indiana to win the series in last year's postseason, and I expect history to repeat itself. The Heat are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 18-8 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 25-40 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points. | |||||||
06-01-13 | Detroit Tigers -134 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -134 The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Verlander, who has dominated Baltimore throughout his career. He's 7-0 (10-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.85 in 11 career starts versus the Orioles. The Tigers are 6-0 all-time in his road starts versus Baltimore, winning these by an average of 3.5 runs. The Orioles have done well with Hammel on the hill, but his 6.37 home ERA throws up a big red flag. Take the Tigers. | |||||||
06-01-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins -123 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Annihilator on Twins -123 The Key: The Twins have the edge on the mound with Correia. They are 4-1 in his 5 home starts, during which he's posted a 2.50 ERA. Seattle's Harang has struggled on the road where he's 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA in 3 starts. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 games in the underdog role, and they're also 0-4 in their last 4 Game 2s of a series. Take the Twins early. | |||||||
05-31-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies -125 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Phillies -125 The Key: It's been a rough start to the season for Hamels, but he's been better than his record indicates. I expect a gem out of him tonight against the struggling Brewers. The Brewers are 5-22 in their last 27 overall, including 0-6 in their last 6 games. Milwaukee has really struggled against southpaw starters this year. It is just 4-18 against them on the season, including 0-7 in its last 7 on the road against lefty starters. Hamels is 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Brewers. Gallardo is typically never as good on the road, and the Brewers are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. The Brewers are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings and 11-30 in the last 41 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. | |||||||
05-30-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat UNDER 185.5 | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Heat Under 185.5 The Key: We saw 191 total points scored in Game 4, and these teams have combined for at least 190 points in each of the last 6 meetings. And yet oddsmakers have come up with a number of 185.5? The books are begging for the money to come in on the over, but we won't oblige them. The defensive intensity of this series will be at an all-time high tonight, and this one should find its way under the number as a result. Both teams have played to the over in their last 5 games. However, plays "under" on any team after 5 or more consecutive overs, provided it is a good team that outscores opponents by 3.0 points per game or more, are 156-96 since 1996. This system, which applies to both teams, is 10-5 this season. Also, plays "under" on all teams when total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied are 104-64 since 1996. We've seen an average posted total of 184.5 in these games but have seen just 181.3 total points scored on average. Take the Under. | |||||||
05-30-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants +101 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +101 The Key: The Athletics have taken the first 3 games of this home-and-home four-game series, but that won't keep me off the defending World Series champs here. After all, the Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 3 games of a series. Former Oakland ace Barry Zito has a 1.38 ERA at home this season, and the Giants are 13-0 in his last 13 home starts dating back to last season. The Giants are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. Zito is also 2-0 in his last 2 home starts versus the A's. Oakland's A.J. Griffin has an ERA of 4.31 on the road this season, and the Athletics are 2-11 in the last 13 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-29-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants -123 | 9-6 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
6* MLB Battle on the Bay Bailout on Giants -123 The Key: The reigning World Series champs lost both in Oakland, but I expect them to regroup at home where they have won 35 of their last 52. Also, keep in mind that they are 11-1 in their last 12 home games against the A's. I trust Lincecum more at home, where he's 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA, than I trust Milone on the road, where he's 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA. Plus, Lincecum has a good track record against the A's. The Giants are 6-2 in his last 8 starts against them, and he has limited them to 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of these starts. Also, the former two-time NL Cy Young winner is 5-0 on the money line in his last 5 starts when getting the ball on regular rest. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-29-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -133 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -133 The Key: The Indians lost both games in Cincinnati, but I expect them to bounce back strong at home where they have won 13 of their last 17 overall. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus the Reds. Justin Masterson is having a sensational season, and he's been lights out at home lately. The Indians are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, and he's given up no runs in his last 2 home starts spanning 16 innings. Masterson is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Reds, holding them to 1 earned run in 17 innings during this stretch. Cincy's Bronson Arroyo hasn't been as sharp on the road where he's 1-3. He's also had his share of struggles against the Tribe, going 0-3 with a 11.20 ERA in his last three 3 starts against them. Take the Indians on the money line. | |||||||
05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185.5 | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
7* Conference Finals Total of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER 185.5 The Key: Indiana knows it must play better defensively if it's going to win this series. After allowing the Heat to shoot 54.5% from the field in Game 3, expect the best defensive team in the NBA to tighten the screws tonight. The Pacers have allowed just 90.1 ppg at home on 41.4% shooting on the season. The Heat are on a 73-43 Unders run in road games versus teams that allow 91 points or less per game. It is also worth noting that Indiana is on a 56-24 Unders run when out for revenge for a home loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. Miami is on a 59-33 Unders run in games following a blowout win of 15 points or more. Bet the Under. | |||||||
05-28-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3 | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NBA Playoffs Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Pacers +3 The Key: I'll gladly take the Pacers catching points at home in this bounce back spot. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Despite the Game 3 defeat, the Pacers have still won 2 of 3 at home against the Heat this season with 2 of those wins coming by double digits. They may be down 1-2 in this series, but one of those defeats came by a single point in OT. Take the points. | |||||||
05-28-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +116 v. Boston Red Sox | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MLB Top Dog on Phillies +116 The Key: The Phillies are showing value at this price considering the edge they have on the mound with Cliff Lee. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, during which he has allowed a total of 4 runs in 31 innings. The Phillies are 5-0 in Lee's last 5 starts as an underdog. Boston's Ryan Dempster, on the other hand, has been struggling. He's given up 19 runs in his last 4 starts spanning 19 2-3 innings. The Red Sox are 0-3 in his last 3 home starts. Take the Phillies. | |||||||
05-28-13 | Miami Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Rays -1.5 -106 The Key: The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games and have lost these by an average of 2.5 runs. They are also 0-6 in their last 6 road games, losing these by an average of 2.7 runs. Miami is 0-3 in Kevin Slowey's last 3 starts. These losses came by an average of 5.3 runs, which isn't hard to believe considering Slowey posted an 8.52 ERA during this stretch. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled but enters with confidence following his best start of the season. Besides, the Rays have won 5 of his last 6 home starts dating back to last season. The Marlins are 9-24 in the last 33 meetings and 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line. | |||||||
05-27-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies -2.5 The Key: The Grizzlies are down 0-3, but this series has been much closer than that as they lost the last two games in OT. They aren't about to roll over here. That's not the personality of this team. Memphis is the first team in NBA history to fall behind 0-2 and win four straight by double digits. It pulled off that feat in the first round against the Clippers. Also, it hasn't been swept in the postseason since 2006. The Spurs caught a break with there being 3 days in between Game 2 and 3. They aren't as fortunate here with only 1 day in between games, and I expect them to feel the effects of the Game 3 overtime contest more than Memphis, which is younger and will be able to feed off the energy of the crowd. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. They are also 7-0 ATS this season when they check in with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. They have won by an average score of 92.0 to 82.6 in this situation. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-27-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox -116 | 7-0 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on White Sox -116 The Key: The Cubs pulled out a win yesterday to end a 6-game skid but are 10-26 in their last 36 games following a win. They are 11-25 in their last 36 interleague road games and 3-8 in their last 11 meetings with the White Sox. Samardzija has pitched well but has suffered from a lack of run support. Plus, he's been hit hard in 3 of his last 5 road starts, and the Cubs are 0-5 in those starts. The White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games. They are in good hands with Quintana on the mound considering the Cubs just 4-10 against southpaw starters this season. Quintana is working off a game, and the White Sox are 12-1 in his last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take the South Siders. | |||||||
05-26-13 | Miami Heat -115 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat pk The Key: Miami hasn't lost consecutive games since early January. It is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games following a defeat, and I expect this trend to continue. It is also worth noting that the Heat are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games, and that Indiana is 3-11 ATS this season following a win by 6 points or less. The Pacers have actually lost by an average of 2.3 points in this situation. In addition, road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 25-6 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting this situation are winning by 6.6 points on average. LeBron James failed down the stretch in Game 2, but I don't see it happening again. Plus, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh won't shoot a combined 42.8% from the field again. Both players shot over 50% during the regular season. I also expect the Heat to pick up the defensive intensity after allowing Indiana to shoot 50.0% in Game 2. Take Miami. | |||||||
05-26-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -121 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -121 The Key: The Brewers are showing value at home at this price given the dominance Gallardo has displayed against the Pirates. The right-hander is 10-2 (14-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.31 in 16 career starts versus Pittsburgh. Also, the Brewers are 9-0 all-time in Gallardo's home starts versus the Pirates. Wandy Rodriguez is 1-3 on the money line in his last 4 starts versus the Brewers. He's also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 and 2-10 on the money line in his last 12 starts at Milwaukee. The Pirates are 8-45 in the last 53 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Brew Crew. | |||||||
05-25-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 54 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Grizzlies -5.5 The Key: This is basically a must-win game for Memphis given the history of teams facing 0-3 deficits, and I expect it to rise to the occasion. The Grizzlies erased a 13-point 4th-quarter deficit in Game 2 and nearly pulled it out in overtime despite shooting only 34.0% from the field. The comeback speaks volumes about what this team is capable of doing defensively, and I believe it will tighten the screws even more in Game 3. Down 0-2 to the Clippers in the first round, Memphis responded with a 94-82 home win in Game 3 and never lost again in the series. After losing Game 1 to the Thunder, it bounced back to win four straight. You can be rest assured that Memphis still believes it can win this series. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, the home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings with a 9.4-point average winning margin. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-25-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -123 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -123 The Key: I'm backing Barry Zito at home where he has been lights out. The Giants are 5-0 in Zito's home starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 0.55. Dating back to last season, the Giants are 12-0 in his last 12 home starts. Zito was rocked in Colorado in his most recent start, but he normally gets the best of the Rockies. The Giants are 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus Rockies. They are also 7-1 in his last 8 home starts versus the Rockies, including a perfect 3-0 in his last 3. The Rockies are only 6-20 in the last 26 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-24-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7 | 97-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -7 The Key: Indiana did everything it wanted to do in Game 1, and it still wasn't enough. Not winning that game will come back to haunt the Pacers as I believe the Heat will take things up a notch tonight. Miami is going to shoot 27.8% from 3-point range again tonight. This is a team that averages 39.8% from long range at home on the season. The Heat aren't going to shoot 64.0% from the foul line either. They average 77.0% from the charity stripe at home. I also don't see Miami committing 20 turnovers again considering they average just 13.0 a game. The Heat are 42-5 at home on the season and have won these games by an average score of 105.7 to 94.9. The home team is 4-0 in the last meetings between these teams with these wins coming by an average of 9.5 points. Also, Miami is 7-1 in its last 8 home games versus the Pacers with the wins coming by an average of 14.0 points. Miami is 32-18 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, and Indiana is 8-17 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-24-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -104 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Brewers -104 The Key: The Brewers are 44-7 in their last 51 at home versus the Pirates, and I expect them to continue their home dominance against their NL Central rivals tonight. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada has owned Pittsburgh, as evidenced by the fact he has a 2.47 ERA in 7 starts against the Bucs. The Brewers are 4-0 in Estrada's last 4 starts versus Pirates, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog, 6-0 in his last 6 series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days' rest. A.J. Burnett hasn't had much luck against the Brew Crew, as evidenced by his 4.87 ERA in 10 starts against them. The Pirates are 0-4 in Burnett's last 4 starts versus the Brewers and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Beermakers. | |||||||
05-23-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -130 The Key: I'm fading Joe Blanton here. The right-hander has a 6.62 ERA on the season and an 8.04 ERA over his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 this season in his road starts, 0-7 in his night starts and 0-4 in his series-opening starts. He is also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus Kansas City. He was tagged for 7 earned runs in 4 2-3 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Royals May 13. Former Angel Ervin Santana has an ERA of 2.77, and that number is down to 1.84 at home. His knowledge of the L.A. hitters should play to his benefit. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
05-22-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | 102-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -7.5 The Key: Miami came out flat in Game 1 of its last series and lost that game to Chicago. It also found itself in a 2-1 hole in last year's playoff series with Indiana. Both of these things assure us the Heat will be very focused heading into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The home team went 3-0 during the regular season with each of these wins coming by at least 10 points. Miami won its lone regular season home game against the Pacers by 14 points. It is 6-1 in its last 7 home games against the Pacers with the 6 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points. Indiana has struggled on the road all season. It is just 2-6 in its last 8 road games with all of the losses coming by double digits. The Pacers are 7-17 ATS this season in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. They are 8-19 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons while Miami is 32-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Heat are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-22-13 | Boston Red Sox -126 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -126 The Key: The Red Sox have the edge on the mound with Buchholz, who is 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA in 9 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 road starts. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 26-5 in Buchholz's last 31 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a losing record. It is also significant that Buchholz has a WHIP of just 1.035 given the White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The White Sox are 0-3 in Santiago's last 3 starts. Bet Bean Town. | |||||||
05-22-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -128 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
6* MLB Afternoon Annihilator on Rockies -128 The Key: The Rockies are in great hands with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. They are an awesome 27-4 in his last 31 home starts. It is also worth noting that they have never lost to the Diamondbacks at Coors Field with De La Rosa on the bump. They are 8-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Diamondbacks. De La Rosa has a 2.41 ERA in 14 career starts versus Arizona while Cahill has a 4.87 ERA in 7 starts versus the Rockies. Cahill has lost his last 2 starts in Colorado and 3 of his last 4 overall against the Rockies. | |||||||
05-21-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -140 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -140 The Key: The Cards have the edge on the mound with Wainwright, who's 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA. Compare that to San Diego's Volquez, who's 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA. Wainwright has also been lights out against the Padres, going 3-2 with a 0.97 ERA in 5 career starts. Volquez is 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA in 9 starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. The Padres are 3-7 in Volquez's last 10 starts, and he's 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 versus the Cards. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
05-21-13 | Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Grizzlies +5.5 The Key: Memphis is incredibly resilient. It has lost consecutive games just once in these playoffs, and it lost by only 2 points in that second loss. Those 2 defeats came in its first two playoff games. The Grizzlies are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS since. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. 3 of 4 regular-season meetings between these teams were decided by 4 points or fewer, and I expect another close game here as the Grizzlies, who are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, tighten the screws defensively. The Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They are also 17-5 ATS under coach Hollins when out for revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent. Take the points. | |||||||
05-20-13 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants -135 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -135 The Key: The Giants are happy to be home after losing the last three of a four-game series in Colorado. They are 20-7 in their last 27 home games and 12-3 in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning record. Ryan Vogelsong has struggled, but I expect his best outing of the season tonight. The Nationals are hitting just .224 on the road, and he knows he needs a quality start if he wants to remain in the rotation. The Giants are 14-5 in Vogelsong's last 19 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a winning record. Washington's Zach Duke hasn't started since July 10, 2011 and he's been hit hard in two appearances this season. He gave up three runs in three innings of an 8-1 loss to Atlanta on April 30 and allowed four runs in two-thirds of inning as Washington fell 8-2 to the Chicago Cubs on May 11. Duke's clubs are 9-32 all-time in his starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-19-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -4.5 | 83-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -4.5 The Key: The Grizzlies are 0-2 in Game 1s in these playoffs, losing them by an average of 11.5 points, while the Spurs are 2-0 in Game 1s, winning them by an average of 7.0 points. The biggest reason why the Spurs have jumped out to 1-0 series leads is because they've played their Game 1s at home where they are 39-7 on the season. The Grizzlies have played both of theirs on the road. Home court has certainly mattered when these two do battle as the home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with an average winning margin of 8.0 points. The Spurs are 6-0 in their last 6 home games versus the Grizzlies and have won these by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-19-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles +101 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Annihilator on Orioles +101 The Key: The Orioles have lost the first two games of this series and will be extremely hungry and focused as a result. They are 5-0 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Baltimore is in good hands with Chris Tillman, who has a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Orioles are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts versus a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that they are 6-1 in Tillman's last 7 starts as an underdog. Moore is off to a strong start for Tampa Bay and has a win in Baltimore this season. However, he had lost his previous two starts in Baltimore, and the Rays are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite. Take the Orioles. | |||||||
05-18-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers OVER 178.5 | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers Over 178.5 The Key: Plays on the over on all teams that check in off a road loss of 10 points or more and are playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 82-38 since 1996 when the total 179.5 points or less. This system is a perfect 5-0 the last 3 seasons. The over is also 11-2 in the Pacers' last 13 games following a loss and 6-2 in their last 8 home games. We saw 160 total points in Game 5, but Indiana was 19 of 33 from the free throw line and made just 6 3-point shots. It has made at least 8 3's in each of the first 4 games of the series. While I expect Indiana to shoot better at home, I also expect the Knicks to continue the offensive improvement they showed in Game 5. They know they need to push the ball to be successful. The pace should be faster tonight than it was in the previous two games in Indiana. Take the Over. | |||||||
05-18-13 | Seattle: J Saunders v. Cleveland: Mcallister -155 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Blowout on Indians -155 The Key: The Indians have won 15 of their last 19 and find themselves in good hands with Zach McAllister stepping to the mound. The Tribe is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, and he's posted a 1.74 ERA during this span. The Mariners have struggled against righty starters this season and are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against them. The Indians, on the other hand, are 5-1 in their last 6 games versus a left-handed starter and should be able to get to Joe Saunders. The southpaw is 0-4 with an ERA of 12.53 on the road this season. These 4 losses came by an average of 6.5 runs. Saunders is also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus Cleveland. Take the Tribe. | |||||||
05-17-13 | Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Pirates -1.5 +100 The Key: The Pirates have owned the Astros. They've won 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and 16 of the last 21 at home. Plus, they've never lost to Houston when facing Jordan Lyles. They are 5-0 against the 'stros when Lyles gets the start. Lyles has a 7.77 ERA in these 5 starts. It's also worth noting that the Astros are 0-9 in Lyles' last 9 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-7 in his last 7 interleague starts. Take Pittsburgh on the run line. | |||||||
05-17-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -115 | 12-10 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Money Line Massacre on Orioles -115 The Key: The Orioles are a good buy here as they are 10-4 in their last 14 games against the Rays. They are also 6-1 in their last 7 home games versus Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson has been hit hard over his last 4 starts. Plus, the Rays are 0-8 in Hellickson's last 8 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 6-0 in Jason Hammel's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take Baltimore. | |||||||
05-16-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks -5 | Top | 75-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Knicks -5 The Key: Back home and needing a win to stay alive, I fully expect the Knicks to rise to the occasion. Indiana won Games 3 and 4 at home by double digits, but the Knicks are on a 22-8 ATS run when checking in off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. Plus, the home team is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings. These 8 wins have come by an average of 14.6 points with all of them coming by at least 5. It is also worth noting that the Knicks are 29-15 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-16-13 | Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Yankees -163 The Key: The Yankees have an advantage on the mound that's worth paying the juice for. New York's Andy Pettitte is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA while Seattle's Aaron Harang is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA. It is also worth noting that Pettitte has given up 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts against Seattle. The Yankees are 70-25 in Pettitte's last 95 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 45-10 in his last 55 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Mariners are 33-92 in their last 125 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Take the Yanks. | |||||||
05-15-13 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | Top | 88-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder -4 The Key: The defending Western Conference champs aren't going to go down without a fight. They are down 1-3 in the series but could easily be up 3-1 had Kevin Durant been able to close out games. Durant can't be at all happy with how he's performed late in games, and I expect him to respond tonight as he feeds off the energy of the home crowd. The Thunder are an impressive 16-6 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games when out for revenge for a same-season loss. They have won by an average score of 106.4 to 94.0 in this situation. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -118 | 9-2 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
6* Wednesday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Rays -118 The Key: The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against the Red Sox, who are 0-4 in their last 4 road games and 4-22 in their last 26 road games versus clubs that have a winning record. Boston is hitting just .249 and scoring only 3.9 runs per game off left-handed starters this season and is 0-5 in its last 5 games versus a left-handed starter as a result. It will have its work cut out for itself against David Price, who is 8-4 lifetime with a 2.99 ERA versus the Red Sox. The Rays are 3-0 in his last 3 home starts versus Boston. While Boston has struggled against southpaw starters, Tampa Bay has flourished. It's hitting them at a .273 clip and averaging 5.3 runs per game against them. The Rays have had their share of success against Jon Lester lately. He's 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 starts against them. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
05-15-13 | Chicago Bulls +14.5 v. Miami Heat | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Bulls +14.5 The Key: The Bulls aren't winning this series, but this game is about pride. They were brutally embarrassed last time out as Miami held them to 25.7% shooting and 65 points. Chicago will leave it all on the floor tonight to save face and to make Miami earn the "W". The Bulls are an awesome 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with triple revenge. The Heat are 0-7 ATS in home games this season following 2 or more consecutive road wins. They have won in this situation, but only by 2.0 points on average. Take the points. | |||||||
05-14-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 194.5 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Warriors/Spurs Over 194.5 The Key: These teams have finished under the total in 3 consecutive games as each has shot below 40% twice during this stretch. I don't see the cold shooting continuing. Offensively, Golden State has been just as good on the road this season. It averages 101.7 ppg on the road, which is what it averages on the season. However, it isn't nearly as good defensively on the road where it has allowed 103.5 ppg. The Spurs are much better offensively at home where they average 104.5 ppg on 49.1% shooting. 13 of the last 15 meetings between these teams in San Antonio have gone over the posted total for this game. Take the Over. | |||||||
05-14-13 | San Diego Padres v. Baltimore Orioles -132 | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Orioles -132 The Key: The Orioles have the edge on the mound with Chris Tillman. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he's posted a 2.03 ERA during this span. The Orioles are also 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts series-opening starts. San Diego's Andrew Cashner is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 2 road starts this season. Plus, the Padres have struggled on the road in general. They are 0-6 in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter. Bet Baltimore. | |||||||
05-14-13 | New York Knicks +5.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
7* Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Knicks +5.5 The Key: The Pacers held the Knicks to only 71 points in Game 3, but there is plenty of history supporting a bounce-back from New York tonight. Road teams that check in off a road loss where they were held to less than 80 points, provided they are playing 6 games or less in 14 days, are 27-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Knicks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game while the Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. New York is also a fantastic 33-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. Take the points. | |||||||
05-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 97-103 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +4.5 The Key: I expect the Thunder to even this series tonight, but I'll take the points for insurance. Oklahoma City has lost 3 consecutive games only once this season, and it lost the third game during that stretch by just 3 points on the road versus Houston. The Thunder have lost consecutive games 3 other times and responded with a win in each of these instances. OKC has been very resilient over the years, as evidenced by the fact its 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games following a loss. The Thunder have also been outstanding in revenge spots, going 106-66 ATS when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent under coach Brooks. They are 45-28 ATS under Brooks when playing with double revenge. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are on a 49-31 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. | |||||||
05-13-13 | New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 119 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -1.5 +119 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Lynn, who has a 2.72 ERA on the season and a 1.35 ERA at home. The Cards are 6-0 in his last 6 regular-season home starts and have won these by 4.33 runs on average. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. New York's Hefner has an ERA of 4.24 and that number balloons to 5.73 on the road. The Mets are 0-6 in his last 6 starts, losing these by 2.0 runs on average. The Mets are batting just .233 against righty starters this season and are 0-7 in their last 7 games versus a right-handed starter. The Cards are hitting .272 against righty starters and are 9-0 in their last 9 games versus them. The Mets are only 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards on the run line. | |||||||
05-13-13 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187 | 88-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Under 187 The Key: The Bulls hang their hat on defense so they are not at all happy with the fact they have allowed Miami to shoot 60% and 50% the last two games. Having had two days to rest and prepare, and knowing they need a win here to have a chance at winning the series, I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Bulls. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls' last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is also 9-1 under the last two seasons off a home loss by 10 points or more. It's also worth noting that the Bulls are on a 31-15 unders run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 100 points or more on them. The extra rest should help Miami's defense too. The under is 7-1 in the Heat's last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Plus, Miami won't be able to keep up its hot shooting. It's on a 34-16 unders run following 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. Take the Under. | |||||||
05-12-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Chicago White Sox -118 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on White Sox -118 The Key: The Angels have won the first two games of this series but are still just 6-13 in their last 19 road games and 4-9 in their last 13 in the third game of a series. The White Sox have won 4 of their last 5 Game 3's and find themselves in good hands with Chris Sale toeing the rubber. The White Sox are 13-3 in Sale's last 16 home starts, including a perfect 3-0 this season. He has an ERA of just 2.08 in those 3 wins. The Sox are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus teams with a losing record and 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus the American League West. C.J. Wilson has pitched well for the Angels but hasn't been as sharp as Sale. His road ERA (3.75) is nearly 2 runs higher than Sale's home ERA. The Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the South Siders. | |||||||
05-12-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Warriors +1.5 The Key: I expect the Warriors to bounce back here. They will be lacking no confidence because of how well they performed in the first two games of the series. Plus, I believe they'll be the fresher team. This will be the fourth game in six days for these teams, which favors the more youthful Warriors. Stephen Curry is listed as probable, but I believe Golden State has enough fire power to get the job done even if he's limited by his ankle. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. The Warriors are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 1 day of rest while the Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Golden State. | |||||||
05-12-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Nationals -1.5 +128 The Key: The Cubs won yesterday but had lost 5 straight to Washington by an average of 5.2 runs prior. Gio Gonzalez has been the NL Central's worst nightmare. The Nationals are 13-1 in his 14 starts against the NL Central and have won these by an average score of 6.6 to 3.2. They have won both of his starts against the Cubs by 3 and 8 runs. It's also noting that Washington is 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, winning these by an average of 4.75 runs. The Cubs are 8-23 in their last 31 games following a win, 14-42 in their last 56 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 3-9 in their last 12 games versus a left-handed starter. Take Washington on the run line. | |||||||
05-11-13 | New York Knicks v. Indiana Pacers -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -4 Bottom Line: The Pacers were crushed in Game 2 as they turned the ball over 21 times and gave up 10 3-point makes. Look for them to come storming back in Game 3 as they take better care of the rock and tighten the screws on their perimeter defense. Indiana only averages 14 turnovers at home on the season. Also, it ranked No. 1 in the NBA in 3-point field goal percentage defense during the regular season, limiting foes to 32.7% from beyond the arc. The Pacers have held the Knicks to 4 and 5 3-point makes, respectively, in their last 2 visits to Indiana. The Pacers are 14-5 ATS in home games this season versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts. They have defeated these foes by an average score of 101.4 to 89.3. This trend says a lot about how well they defend the 3-point shot. The Pacers are also 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings with all 6 wins coming by at least 5 points. Mike Woodson's teams are 4-15 ATS all-time in road playoff games. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-11-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 81-87 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Thunder +5 The Key: I'll gladly take the points with the Thunder as they are the more talented offensive team (even without Westbrook) and just as good, if not better, than Memphis defensively. The Thunder held opponents to 42.5 percent shooting during the regular season. That mark was good for No. 2 in the league. Memphis held foes to 43.5 percent. The Thunder won 2 of 3 in Houston without Westbrook in their first series, and I like their chances here even against a better defensive team. After all, Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS under coach Brooks in road games versus team that hold their opponents to 91.0 ppg or less. The Thunder have defeated these teams by an average score of 98.6 to 90.8. It's also worth noting that the Thunder are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record, and the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. | |||||||
05-11-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. New York Mets -111 | 11-2 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Mets -111 The Key: Today's the day to get behind Jon Niese as the Mets are 12-2 all-time in his Saturday starts. The Mets most definitely have the edge on the mound with Niese, who has an ERA of 2.08 in 4 home starts. The Mets are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 12-25 in their last 37 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog, and sending Francisco Liriano to the mound doesn't do anything to gain my confidence. The left-hander is carrying a 4.15 ERA over five minor league starts. The Mets have won 6 of their last 8 against the Pirates, and I like them here. Bet the Mets. | |||||||
05-10-13 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Spurs +2.5 The Key: The Spurs are fortunate to be level at 1-1 in the series as they are yet to play well. They've allowed Golden State to shoot 48.1 percent while they've shot just 41.6 percent. I expect that to change tonight. After suffering its first defeat of the playoffs, I expect this veteran San Antonio bunch to play with a heightened sense of urgency and purpose. The Spurs are a proud bunch, and they aren't about to roll over for the new kids on the block. I'm confident they will really pick things up on the defensive end. Plays on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 that check in off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing no more than their 3rd game in 10 days, are 24-6 ATS since 1996. The Spurs are 11-1 ATS the last 2 seasons following an upset loss at home and 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent. The Spurs have won 7 of their last 9 at Golden State. One of those losses came in OT. The other came in a game Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobli didn't play in. Take the points. | |||||||
05-10-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -141 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Reds -141 The Key: The Brewers are struggling. They lost 6 of 7 to conclude a lengthy home stand, and now they head to Cincinnati where they haven't made much luck. The Reds are 7-2 in their last 9 and 20-7 in their last 27 at home versus the Brewers. Gallardo is the more proven pitcher in this matchup, but I believe he is overmatched here considering his struggles on the road and poor track record against the Reds. The right-hander owns a 6.00 road ERA compared to a 3.90 home mark. He dropped both 2012 starts at Cincinnati with a 4.63 ERA. The Brewers are 3-8 in Gallardo's last 11 starts versus the Reds and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts versus them. They are also 7-20 in his last 27 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is just 4-7 against southpaw starters and will have its work cut out for itself against Cingrani. Cincy has won 3 of his 4 starts while he's posted a 2.62 ERA. Milwaukee's lack of familiarity with Cingrani will be to his benefit. Bet the Reds. | |||||||
05-10-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 4-10 | Win | 115 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Tigers -1.5 +115 The Key: The Indians have been rolling, but I expect them to cool off in Detroit where they are 8-28 since the start of 2009. The Tigers are 4-0 in Max Scherzer's last 4 starts, winning these by an average of 4.75 runs. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200, winning these by an average of 4.57 runs. The Tigers are 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 starts versus the Indians with each of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. The Indians are 4-10 in Corey Kluber's 14 starts. These losses have come by an average of 4.3 runs and include 0-4 loss in his most recent start against Detroit. Take the Tigers on the run line. | |||||||
05-09-13 | New York Yankees -119 v. Colorado Rockies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Yankees -119 The Key: The Yankees have the edge on the mound with CC Sabathia. He has been tough as nails in interleague action. The Yankees are 10-1 in his 11 interleague starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.40. He is also 4-0 on the money line in his last 4 starts versus Colorado. The Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies have struggled against the AL, even at home where they are 5-16 in their last 21 interleague games. Having Jeff Francis on the hill doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. He's carrying a 7.27 ERA on the season. The Rockies are 0-4 in Francis' last 4 starts as a home underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Yankees. | |||||||
05-08-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 204.5 | Top | 100-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
7* NBA Total of the Year on Warriors/Spurs Under 204.5 The Key: 212 total points were scored in regulation in Game 1, but I'm confident these teams won't come close to that tonight. The Spurs allowed Golden State to shoot 51% from the field, a figure that is completely unacceptable in their book. Prior to Game 1, these two hadn't exceeded 197 total points in their previous three meetings in San Antonio while the Spurs held the Warriors to 46.2% shooting or worse in each. It is also worth noting that these two combined for 24 3-point makes in Game 1. That's 8 more than they average combined. The Spurs are 7-2 Under in their last 9 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 12-2 Under this season in home games after scoring 105 points or more. Lastly, plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 that have gone over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 43-12 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total for these games has been 204.1, but the teams fitting into this situation have combined for only 197.5 points on average. This system is 8-1 this season. Take the Under. | |||||||
05-08-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 4-10 | Win | 119 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -1.5 +119 The Key: The Rays have lost the first two games of the series, but I expect them to bounce back strong tonight with Matt Moore on the mound. The southpaw is 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA on the season. He's 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA at home. Dating back to last season, the Rays are 8-0 in his last 8 starts and have won these by an average of 4.4 runs with all of them coming by at least 2 runs. The Rays are also 3-0 all-time in Moore's home starts against Toronto. These wins have come by an average of 5 runs with each coming by at least 3 runs. The Blue Jays are just 3-15 in Ricky Romero's last 18 starts and have lost his last 2 starts versus Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line. | |||||||
05-08-13 | Oakland: A Griffin +105 v. Cleveland: Masterson | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Top Dog* on A's +105 The Key: The A's represent the strongest underdog on the board today. They've lost the first two games of the series but are still 8-2 in their last 10 versus Cleveland. Justin Masterson has been hit hard in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 13 innings. Also, he hasn't had much luck against Oakland. He's 1-5 with an ERA of 10.36 in 6 starts versus the A's. He was 0-3 against them last season, giving up 19 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. The Athletics are 17-5 in Griffin's last 22 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 starts as an underdog. Take the A's. | |||||||
05-08-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Miami Heat -12 | 78-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Heat -12 The Key: Miami looked like a team that hadn't played a game in a week in Game 1. It shot 39.7% from the field and was outrebounded badly. I expect Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call for the defending champs. While this may seem like a lot of points to lay, consider that Chicago was blown out twice in Brooklyn in its opening series by 17 and 19 points. Also, consider that Miami has two wins of 12 points or more against Chicago this season. By coming back with a line this large, the books clearly want the money coming in on the Bulls. The Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-07-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -130 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -130 The Key: The Cardinals have never lost to the Cubs when Lance Lynn gets the start, going 4-0 with an average winning margin of 4.5 runs. Lynn has an ERA of 2.96 in these starts. Lynn is working off 3 consecutive gems, which bodes well for us since the Cards are 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The Cardinals are also 7-0 in his last 7 series-opening and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. It is also worth noting that the Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Chicago's Travis Wood has pitched well this season, but he doesn't have a good track record against the Cardinals. Fading the Cubs against the Cardinals with Wood on the mound has never lost as the Cubs are 0-3 in his starts against St. Louis. He's given up 18 runs in 16 innings in those starts. The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-8 in his last 8 starts as a home underdog. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
05-07-13 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks -6 | 79-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks -6 The Key: Look for the Knicks to bounce back strong tonight. They have already lost the home-court advantage and know they can't afford to be down 0-2 heading to Indiana so I expect a very inspired performance from them here. One loss doesn't buck a trend. The home team has still won 5 of the last 6 meetings with the wins coming by 13.8 points on average. The Knicks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. The New York defense wasn't up to snuff in Game 1, allowing the Pacers to score 102 points on 48.7 percent shooting. I expect that to change tonight. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 12-4 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that they allowed to score 100 points or more. The Knicks are 28-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less the last 3 seasons. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-06-13 | Golden State Warriors v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs -8.5 The Key: The Spurs have a huge advantage in terms of freshness and preparation as they haven't played since Apr. 28. The Spurs made easy work of the Lakers, which had no answer for their balanced offensive attack. I expect a Golden State team that allows 103.2 ppg on the road to struggle to stop the Spurs tonight. San Antonio, on the other hand, holds its foes to just 93.9 ppg at home. Much has been made of Stephen Curry and these Warriors, but San Antonio is very deep and very experienced. I don't expect Curry to be as effective in this series as Tony Parker is one of the quickest players in the NBA. Having to defend Parker will really wear out Curry, which will affect him at the offensive end. The Spurs are 29-0 in their last 29 home games versus Golden State, winning these by an average of 16.8 points. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-06-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -138 | 8-7 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -138 The Key: The Blue Jays ended a 4-game skid yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Jays are also 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa Bay won last year's series 14-4, and Toronto is just 12-39 in its last 51 at Tampa Bay. Veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle is struggling. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, during which he has an ERA of 5.68. The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 home games versus a left-handed starter, 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays are 4-0 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 4 starts at home where he has an ERA of 3.38 this year. He also has a 2.89 ERA against the Blue Jays while Buehrle has a 4.33 ERA against Tampa Bay. Take the Rays. | |||||||
05-06-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Red Sox -1.5 +102 The Key: The Red Sox will be hungry tonight after getting swept at Texas. They are in great hands with Clay Buchholz getting the ball. He's 6-0 with an ERA of 1.01 in 6 starts, and the Sox have won these by an average of 4.2 runs. Boston is an impressive 17-3 since the start of last season with Buchholz on the hill as a favorite of -110 or higher. It has won these contests by an average score of 6.2 to 3.5. The Red Sox are also 5-0 in their last 5 at home, winning these by 3.8 runs on average. Minnesota's Vance Worley is 0-4 (2-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.22 in 6 starts. Bet Bean Town on the run line. | |||||||
05-05-13 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Houston Astros | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Tigers -1.5 -161 The Key: Philip Humber is 0-6 with an ERA of 7.58 on the season. These 6 defeats have come by an average of 5.2 runs and all of them came by at least 3 runs. Humber is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in 2 starts versus Detroit. It is also worth noting that his teams are 0-10 with him on the mound when the total is 8 to 8.5 since the start of last season. They have lost by an average of 5.3 runs in these spots. Justin Verlander is coming off a gem and just enjoyed the best April of his career. He has a 1.83 ERA in all starts, and that number is down to 1.50 on the road. The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -201 or greater and 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -201 or greater. Take the Tigers on the run line. | |||||||
05-05-13 | INDIANA GM1 v. NEW YORK GM1 -5.5 | 102-95 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks -5.5 The Key: We saw Indiana's road struggles in the first round, losing two of three in Atlanta by double digits. In fact, the Pacers are just 6-15 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. New York, on the other hand, is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus winning teams, including 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Knicks are also 28-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, including 19-8 ATS during this span as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings with these wins coming by 13.8 points. It is significant that New York held the Pacers to 80 points in the most recent meeting because Indiana is 0-7 ATS this season when out for revenge for a loss where it was held to 85 points or less. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-05-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Toronto Blue Jays -155 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Blue Jays -155 The Key: The Mariners have won the first two games of this series but are still 3-7 in their last 10 road games, 2-7 in their last 9 road games versus a right-handed starter, 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 5-12 in their last 17 in the third game of a series. They will have a very tough time pulling off the sweep with Joe Saunders on the bump. He's 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA in 3 road starts. The Blue Jays are in better hands with Brandon Morrow. He has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 4 of his first 6 starts, and Toronto is 2-0 in his last 2 starts with wins over Baltimore and Boston. Morrow is also 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA versus Seattle while Saunders is 2-5 on the money line in his last 7 starts versus the Jays. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Morrow's last 5 starts versus a team with a losing record and 17-5 in his last 22 starts in the third game of a series. Bet the Blue Jays. | |||||||
05-04-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -125 v. Colorado Rockies | 3-9 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -125 The Key: The Rockies have struggled in interleague play, and they've struggled against southpaw starters. The Rockies are 6-20 in their last 26 interleague games and 3-14 in their last 17 interleague home games. They are even 0-12 since the start of interleague play last season versus AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse and have lost to these teams by an average score of 7.5 to 3.5. They are also 0-8 in their last 8 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 18-42 in their last 60 games versus a left-handed starter, 11-25 in their last 36 home games versus a lefty starter and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games versus a southpaw starter. I expect their struggles against lefties to continue with Tampa Bay ace David Price stepping to the mound. He's had a couple rough outings in his first 6 starts but appears to have found his groove with back-to-back solid performance against the Yankees and White Sox. The Rays are 37-17 in Price's last 54 road starts, 27-9 in his last 36 starts as a road favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The biggest reason Colorado has struggled so much in interleague play is its pitching, and I don't see Jon Garland outdueling Price. Garland has been hit hard in his last 2 starts, giving up 10 runs on 18 hits in 12 innings. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
05-04-13 | CHICAGO GM7 v. BROOKLYN GM7 UNDER 181.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
7* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Nets Under 181.5 The Key: Expect a defensive battle to come in under the number in this win-and-advance Game 7. Consider that plays "under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided it is a matchup of two teams with winning records, are 34-14 (70.8%) the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 54-31 "under" when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent under coach Thibodeau. While I expect Chicago to bring the "D", it will be challenged offensively. Leading scorer Luol Deng is expected to miss with an illness, and Kirk Hinrich, who leads the team with 5.2 assists per game, is listed as questionable with a calf injury. The Bulls know they don't stand a chance if the game turns into a track meet so I expect them to take the air out of the ball nearly every possession. That's how they won Game 2 in Brooklyn when just 172 total points were scored. Bet the Under. | |||||||
05-03-13 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM6 +1 v. HOUSTON GM6 | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1 The Key: Russell Westbrook's injury has made a lopsided series more interesting, but I believe Kevin Durant and company will get the job done tonight. Only three times in NBA history has a team rallied from an 0-3 deficit to even force a seventh game, and it hasn't happened since 2003. The Thunder won Game 3 in Houston without Westbrook so they won't be lacking confidence. Plus, it's about time that coach Kevin McHale's strategy to double Durant backfires. Durant's going to get his teammates open shots, and I expect them to do a better job of knocking them in tonight. I expect a much better game from Kevin Martin, who reached double figures in scoring in each of the first four games of the series before scoring only 3 points on 1 of 10 shooting in Game 5. He very well could be the difference-maker for Oklahoma City tonight. The Thunder are 41-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses under coach Brooks. They are also 42-23 ATS under Brooks when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. Lastly, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the Thunder. | |||||||
05-03-13 | LA CLIPPERS GM6 +6.5 v. MEMPHIS GM6 | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Clippers +6.5 The Key: The Clippers have lost three straight since winning the first two games of the series, but I expect them to take Memphis right down to the wire in this do-or-die Game 6. This is a lot of points for L.A. to be catching even if Blake Griffin isn't able to go. The Clippers are still the more talented team offensively, and they are capable of playing better defense. They ranked in the top 10 in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense during the regular season, and I expect a very strong effort defensively in this elimination game. The two days in between games should help as the Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games when playing on 2 days' rest. The Clipps are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. L.A. is 39-24 ATS the last two seasons when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, and this trend tightens up to 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge. They have won by an average score of 97.5 to 92.5 in these 25 instances. Take the points. | |||||||
05-03-13 | NEW YORK GM6 -124 v. BOSTON GM6 | 88-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Knicks pk The Key: Boston has saved face by winning the last two games, but only three times in NBA history has a team rallied from an 0-3 deficit to even force a seventh game, and it hasn't happened since 2003. The Boston defense hasn't been forcing turnovers. The Knicks have been dominating the turnover battle, which is a big reason why they took a 3-0 lead. It is a good sign that they had just 8 turnovers last game because Boston is 0-7 ATS this season following a game where it forced 8 turnovers or fewer. It has lost by an average score of 101.9 to 94.7 in these spots. Because New York is winning the turnover battle, it comes down to making shots. The Knicks have shot under 40% the last two games and still managed to play Boston close. New York is the more talented, more youthful, deeper team, and I'm willing to bet its shots fall tonight. Take New York. | |||||||
05-02-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Total of the Year on Nets/Bulls Under 184 The Key: The Bulls hang their hat on defense. This is a team that ranked 29th in scoring with 93.2 ppg during the regular season but third in scoring defense with 92.9 ppg allowed. After holding the Nets around 35% shooting in Games 2 and 3, the Bulls have allowed them to shoot around 50% in Games 4 and 5. They especially can't be happy with the Game 5 performance because they had an opportunity to close out the series. Rest assured, Chicago will tighten the screws with an opportunity to win the series in front of their home fans. Coach Tom Thibodeau is known as a defensive guru, and the Bulls are 17-4 Under when out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent under his watch. They are also 11-2 Under since coach Thibs took over after allowing 100 points or more in 2 straight games. Bet the Under. | |||||||
05-02-13 | Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Phillies -1.5 +115 The Key: Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is dealing. They have won each of his last 2 and 3 of his last 4 starts, during which he has given up only 4 runs in 28 innings. Miami has lost each of Alex Sanabia's last 2 starts and 3 of his last 4, during which he has allowed 16 runs in 23 2/3 innings. Kendrick has a strong track record against Miami. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Marlins with 3 of these wins coming by 2 runs. He's given up just 4 runs in 24 1/3 innings spanning these starts. The Phillies are also 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus Miami. All 5 of these wins have come by at least 2 runs. The Phillies also swept the Marlins in a 3-game series the last time they visited, winning all 3 by 2 runs. Take Philly on the run line. | |||||||
05-01-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7 | 83-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -7 The Key: Home court has been huge when these two Eastern Conference foes get together. The home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.6 points. The Pacers' 4 home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 12.3 points. Going back even further, we find that the home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and the favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Hawks are on a 10-26 ATS slide in road playoff games. Lay the points. | |||||||
05-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -113 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -113 The Key: The Reds have lost 9 of their last 11 on the road, and their road struggles should continue with Homer Bailey on the hill. He's 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in a pair of road starts this season. The Reds are also 0-6 all-time in his road starts versus the Cardinals and have lost them by an average of 3.5 runs. He has a 6.93 ERA in these starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Lance Lynn's last 4 starts, and 2-0 in his home starts on the season. He has a 1.38 ERA in the 2 home starts. The Cardinals are also 2-0 in his starts versus the Reds. The Cards have won 27 of Lynn's last 37 starts, including 17 of his last 18 against NL Central foes. Take the Cards. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -135 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Bailout Blowout* on Dodgers -135 The Key: Jorge De La Rose is not the same pitcher on the road where the Rockies are 2-7 in is last 9 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. He's 0-9 on the money line in 9 career starts versus the Dodgers with a 6.05 ERA. These losses have come by an average of 4.0 runs. The Rockies have lost 4 of their last 5 in L.A. and figure to have trouble with southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Rockies are 18-40 in their last 58 games versus a left-handed starter and 7-21 in their last 28 road games versus a left-handed starter. Take the Dodgers. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals -122 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Royals -122 The Key: The Rays have lost 7 of their last 10 on the road where they are hitting just .225. I don't see them making much solid contact tonight against James Shields, who has a 3.09 ERA. He has had plenty of time to study the Tampa Bay hitters while spending 7 seasons there. The Rays have a good scouting report on him as well, but the edge goes to the pitcher when facing a batter for the first time. Plus, Shields has had plenty of success against guys he has faced like Shelley Duncan, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson and Jose Molina. The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 1-5 in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Alex Cobb has been good for Tampa Bay but was hit hard while losing his lone road start this season. He was also tagged for 8 runs in an 8-0 loss in Kansas City last season. Take the Royals. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -7.5 The Key: The Nuggets have lost 3 in a row and are now on the brink of elimination, but I fully expect them to respond at home where they are 39-4 on the season with a 10.0-point average margin of victory. Denver is a perfect 9-0 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing with triple revenge and has won by an average of 10.9 points in these spots. Golden State, on the other hand, is 9-18 ATS this season after 2 or more consecutive wins and 2-12 ATS the last 2 seasons off 2 or more consecutive home wins. It is also 9-22 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. We saw the way Brooklyn and Houston responded on their home floors while facing elimination last night, and I believe Denver will rise to the occasion as well. Lay the points. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Houston Astros v. New York Yankees -1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Yankees -1.5 -129 The Key: The Astros are 0-5 in Philip Humber's first five starts and have lost these by an average of 5.6 runs. All 5 losses came by at least 3 runs. The Yankees are 4-0 in Hiroki Kuroda's last 4 starts. These wins came by an average of 3.0 runs with all 4 coming by at least 2.0 runs. Kuroda's teams are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus the Astros with these wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Take the Yankees on the run line. | |||||||
04-29-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets +2 | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
6* NBA Bailout on Rockets +2 The Key: The Rockets took the Thunder down to the wire in games 2 and 3, and I expect them to break through win a win tonight. Houston is showing terrific value as a home underdog considering it is 11-2 ATS all-time when catching points at home under coach Kevin McHale. This trend tightens up to a perfect 8-0 ATS if they're catching 3 points or fewer. They have won these 8 contests by an average score of 104.8 to 98.6. The Thunder jumped out to a 20-point lead in the first quarter of Game 3, but the Rockets actually won quarters 2-4. Houston continues its solid play tonight and earns the "W". | |||||||
04-29-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals -140 | 9-0 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Royals -140 The Key: The Indians find themselves at a disadvantage with Ubaldo Jimenez heading to the mound. He's carrying a 10.06 ERA in 4 starts this season, and this number is up to 14.73 over his last 3 starts. Jimenez has also had his troubles against the Royals. He has an ERA of 5.64 in 4 career starts against them, and is 0-2 in his last 2 starts against them. The Indians are 3-9 in Jimenez's last 12 starts, 2-10 in his last 12 road starts, 4-17 in his last 21 starts as a road underdog, 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 Monday starts. The Royals lost the second game of yesterday's double header but are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are in good hands with Wade Davis getting the pill. They've won 3 of his 4 starts while he's posted an ERA of 3.20. Davis loves pitching in front of the home fans. His teams are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts. He's also 2-0 with an ERA of 2.70 in a pair of starts versus Cleveland. The Indians are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings and 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Royals. | |||||||
04-29-13 | Indiana Pacers +2 v. Atlanta Hawks | 91-102 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers +2 The Key: Expect the Pacers to respond following the beat-down they received in Game 3. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, road teams like Indiana that are coming off a blowout loss of 15 points or more are 70-39 ATS the last 5 seasons as long as they outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game. The Hawks are 3-12 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games following a blowout win of 15 points or more and 1-12 ATS this season in home games following a home win. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take the points. | |||||||
04-29-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5 | Top | 91-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nets -5.5 The Key: I expect the Nets to take care of business at home in this do-or-die Game 5. Chicago won Game 4 in triple-OT but will pay for it here as it is the more banged-up team. Kirk Hinrich, who had 18 points and 14 assists in over 59 minutes in Game 4, is listing as questionable due to a left calf issue. He is so important to the Bulls. It will be a huge blow if he can't go, and it's still a big blow if he plays at less than 100 percent. Joakim Noah is probable, but is battling chronic pain in his right foot, pain that has to be increased after the stress he put on it in Game 4. The Bulls have been a poor investment all season following a cover. In fact, they are 13-24 ATS this season following an ATS victory. More recently, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win while the Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points. | |||||||
04-28-13 | Denver Nuggets -118 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -118 The Key: Following back-to-back defeats, I expect the Nuggets to want this one just a little bit more. They are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss. Plus, Golden State is only 11-23 ATS under coach Mark Jackson following 2 or more consecutive wins. It has lost by an average score of 102.8 to 99.1 in this situation. It is also worth noting the Denver is 37-21 ATS under coach George Karl when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. The Nuggets have won by an average score of 104.6 to 98.4 in this situation. The Warriors have shot out of their minds the past two games, and I don't think they can keep it up as Denver tightens the screws on the defensive end. I also like the fact Denver is turning over Golden State at a high rate and is scoring off those turnovers. Take the Nuggets. | |||||||
04-28-13 | San Francisco Giants -117 v. San Diego Padres | 4-6 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
6* MLB Super System Smoker on Giants -117 The Key: Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.68, and the Giants have hit just 15 home runs on the season, but that won't keep me off the defending champs here. Consider that NL teams with a money line of +100 to -150 that average 0.9 homers or less on the season with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 are 44-15 the last 5 seasons. Vogelsong has struggled early this season following a brilliant finish to last season, but I expect his struggles to come to an end here. He has won his last 2 starts versus San Diego while holding the Padres to 1 earned run. The Giants are 6-1 in Vogelsong's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres have lost both of Jason Marquis' starts at home where he has an elevated 8.38 ERA. He has also lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Giants. San Diego is a soft 3-13 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Giants are 26-11 in the last 37 meetings. Take SF. | |||||||
04-28-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -134 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Diamondbacks -134 The Key: The Rockies are 9-21 in their last 30 road games, 11-42 in their last 53 Sunday games and 7-17 in the last 24 meetings in Arizona. All of these negative streaks should be extended with southpaw Pat Corbin stepping to the hill for the D-backs. The Snakes are 5-0 in his last 5 starts, and he's posted an ERA of just 1.71 in 4 starts this season. Colorado has been at its worst against left-handed starters. In fact, it is 6-20 in its last 26 road games versus a left-handed starter. The D-backs are also 2-0 in Corbin's last 2 starts versus Colorado. The Rockies have won 3 of Jon Garland's 4 starts, but he has benefited from solid run support, something he doesn't figure to get today. He is carrying a 5.21 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take the Snakes. | |||||||
04-27-13 | INDIANA GM3 v. ATLANTA GM3 -137 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
7* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Hawks -137 The Key: I love Atlanta to win this game. Indiana has struggled on the road throughout the season. In fact, it's just 5-13 ATS this season in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. It has lost these contests by 6.3 points on average. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 1-8 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3 points or less and have lost these games by an average of 5.9 points. The Pacers are even on a 3-13 ATS slide in road games following 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. They have lost by an average of 5.5 points in this situation. The home team has dominated this matchup. The home side is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with these wins coming by 10.2 points on average. Going back further, the home team is 11-1 in the last 12. Lastly, and most importantly, the Hawks are 11-0 in their last 11 home games versus Indiana. These 11 victories have come by an average of 10.7 points. Take the Hawks. | |||||||
04-27-13 | INDIANA GM3 v. ATLANTA GM3 UNDER 190.5 | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks Under 190.5 The Key: The first two games of this series have gone way over. We saw 197 points in Game 1 and 211 in Game 2. In fact, we have seen at least 194 total points scored between these teams in five straight meetings. Judging by the number, the books clearly want the action on the over. I'm not going to oblige them. The matchups in Atlanta have been much lower scoring. These two have combined for 184 points or fewer in 4 of the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Indiana is 55-37 under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is on a 27-9 unders run in home playoff games and a 19-6 unders run in first round in home playoff games. The Hawks are also on a 22-8 unders run in home games following 2 consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. Additionally, playing the under on road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, provided they are playing 4 games or fewer in a 10-day span, carry a win percentage of 60-75% and are playing against a team that has a winning record, are 144-84 since 1996. This system is a perfect 6-0 this season. Bet the under. | |||||||
04-27-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -136 | 7-3 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -136 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the A's to come storming back in the third game of this 4-game set. A.J. Griffin has been lights out for the A's since getting the call up last season. They have won 15 of his last 18 starts overall and 10 of his last 11 at home. Even more importantly, they are 7-0 all-time in his home starts versus teams that have a winning record. It's also worth noting that the Athletics are 6-0 in Griffin's last 6 starts as a favorite. Take the A's. | |||||||
04-26-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers +5 | 120-89 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
6* NBA Bailout on Lakers +5 The Key: The Lakers will be without Steve Blake, and Steve Nash and Jodie Meeks are currently listed as doubtful. Still, L.A. is showing value catching this many points at home where it is 6-0 in its last 6 with a 6.8-point average winning margin. In addition, L.A. is 13-1 in its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming by only 3 points. Since that loss was within the number listed for this matchup, we have a perfect 14-0 trend on our hands here. It is worth noting that one of the Lakers' recent home wins came as a 3.5-point dog against the Spurs. The Lakers won that game without Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash and with poor games from Pau Gasol and Metta World Peace. While L.A. could be shorthanded in the backcourt, I'm a big believer in Darius Morris. He is a good passer and with enough talent and court-savvy to get Gasol and Dwight Howard the ball in good scoring positions. Chris Duhon is a terrific defender, and Andrew Goudelock, the D-League MVP, will be out to prove he's an NBA-caliber player when his number is called. Take the points. | |||||||
04-26-13 | New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics -2.5 | 90-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics -2.5 The Key: The Celtics have dropped the first two games of the series in New York, but they are a completely different team at home where they have won 14 of their last 18. They are 13-5 ATS in these games. Boston has also won 13 of its last 15 at home versus the Knicks. The Knicks have plenty of scoring power, but Boston is much better defensively at home where it is holding opponents to just 93.9 ppg on 42.8% shooting. The C's are also much better offensively at home where they are scoring 98.5 ppg on 47.7% shooting. This is a big reason why Boston is 9-1 ATS the last 2 seasons in home games played in the second half of the season versus good offensive teams that average 99.0 points or more per game. The Celtics have won these contests by an average score of 97.3 to 88.5. It is also worth noting that teams headed up by coach Mike Woodson are 2-14 ATS all-time in road playoff games and 1-5 ATS all-time in the third game of a series. Lay the points. | |||||||
04-26-13 | Atlanta Braves +122 v. Detroit Tigers | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Braves +122 The Key: The Braves have never lost under manager Fredi Gonzalez versus AL teams who send a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better to the mound. They are 7-0 versus these clubs. This trend says a lot about the kind of hitters Atlanta has. The Braves should have no trouble hitting Anibal Sanchez. His teams are 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus Atlanta, and he has been shelled in 3 of his last 4 starts versus the Braves. If Atlanta knocks out Sanchez early, then it can wreak havoc on a Detroit bullpen that carries a 4.86 ERA. The Braves are 7-0 this season versus teams with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 5.1 to 1.1. Atlanta's pen owns an MLB-best 1.60 ERA. Atlanta's starter, Paul Maholm, is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA, and should have plenty of success versus a Detroit club that is just 1-3 versus lefty starters this season while hitting only .248. Maholm has given up no more than 2 runs in 3 career starts versus Detroit. The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 series openers and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games. Bet the Braves. | |||||||
04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
6* Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Memphis -4.5 The Key: Down 0-2, it's do-or-die time for the Memphis given the history of teams facing a 0-3 deficit, and I expect it to play like its life depends on it in front of the home fans tonight. The Grizzlies faced a 1-3 deficit in last year's playoff series with the Clippers and clawed their way back to force a Game 7 so they believe they are still very much alive. The Grizzlies have won 14 of their last 15 at home with the 14 wins coming by an average of 8.9 points. They are 25-12 ATS the last 3 seasons after 2 or more consecutive losses, 31-16 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with double revenge, 8-0 ATS this season in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and 34-18 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Lay the points. | |||||||
04-25-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 180 | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 180 The Key: The first two games of the series have gone over the total as Memphis allowed the Clippers to shoot 55.4% and 47.4% from the field. The Grizzlies can't be happy with those defensive performances. We're talking about a team that finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in scoring defense (89.3 ppg allowed), No. 2 in 3-point field goal percentage defense (33.8%) and No. 3 in overall field goal percentage defense (43.5%). Rest assured, the Grizzlies will pick up the "D" at home and this one will find its way under as a result. The Memphis defense has been awesome at home where it had held opponents to an average of 87.0 points on 42.7% shooting. Losing has certainly perpetuated better defensive play for Memphis as it is 15-5 under the last 2 seasons after 2 or more consecutive losses. Revenge is another angle that has jump started the "D". Consider that Memphis is 11-2 under in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. Lastly, the Grizzlies have been at their best defensively when rested. They are 12-1 under this season when playing just 4 or less games in 10 days. They have held their opponents to just 82.6 points on average in this spot. The under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies' last 4 home games and 17-5 in their last 22 versus the Western Conference. Take the Under. | |||||||
04-25-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Washington Nationals -133 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -133 The Key: Washington has lost its last 4 overall and 6 straight at home so it will show up hungry and focused this evening. It will have an excellent opportunity to end these skids against a Cincinnati club that is 0-5 in its last 5 road games. Those five defeats came by an average of 4.0 runs as the bats and bullpen were bad. Gio Gonzalez has been roughed up in his last 2 starts after a couple gems to start the season, and he'll be very focused as a result. He's been awesome against Cincinnati, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 3 career starts. The Nats won both of his starts versus the Reds last season. The Nationals are 28-10 in Gonzalez's last 38 starts, 11-1 in his last 12 starts versus the NL Central and 4-0 in his last 4 series-opening starts. The Reds have lost 3 of Bronson Arroyo's last 4 starts versus the Nationals. They've also lost 3 of his last 4 starts at Washington. The Reds are 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds have also lost 4 of their last 4 in Washington. Take the Nationals. | |||||||
04-24-13 | Milwaukee: M Estrada -114 v. San Diego: E Volquez | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Brewers -114 The Key: The Brewers are on fire. They are 9-0 in their last 9 games. The Padres are ice cold. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall and 0-7 in their last 7 at home. Milwaukee is 6-0 in its last 6 games as a road favorite and 6-0 in its last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. San Diego's Edinson Volquez has a WHIP of 2.128 and an ERA of 8.84 on the season. The Padres are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. Volquez has also struggled against the Brewers. He has given up 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts against them, and he has allowed at least 4 earned in 7 of his last 9 starts against them. The Brewers are 3-0 in Marco Estrada's last 3 starts. They are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Milwaukee on the money line. | |||||||
04-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks +7 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 98-113 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawks +7 The Key: The Hawks lost Game 1 by 17 points but have to like their chances heading into Game 2 considering they shot 50% from the field against the NBA's top field goal percentage defense. The Pacers won the game on the free throw line and on the glass. They made 30 of 34 free throws, but I don't see that happening again. They only average 18 free throw makes per game on 24 attempts. Atlanta will make a concerted effort not to put Indiana on the line as much. Indiana held a sizable advantage on the glass, but Atlanta can narrow the gap by keeping the Pacers off the offensive boards. The Hawks were outrebounded 15-6 on the offensive glass. Just sending the Pacers to the line fewer times will go a long way toward Atlanta winning this game. The Hawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also 18-7 ATS under coach Drew in road games when out for revenge for a loss a loss of 10 points or more to an opponent. They have won by an average score of 94.2 to 92.7 in these spots. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take the points. | |||||||
04-24-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187 | 98-113 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Pacers Under 187 The Key: We've seen at least 194 total points scored in each of the past 4 meetings between these two and oddsmakers have come up with a total of 187. They clearly expect a defensive battle tonight, and I completely agree. We saw 197 total points scored in Game 1, but Game 1 had several aberrations. For starters, Atlanta shot 50% from the field against the NBA's top field goal percentage defense. The Pacers limited foes to 42% shooting during the regular season. I don't expect the Hawks to shoot that well again. I also don't expect the Pacers to go 30 of 34 from the free throw line. They average just 18 makes on 24 attempts from the charity stripe per game. If Indiana just makes it average in Game 1, we would have seen just 185 total points scored. Playing the under when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points on teams that are well rested (3 or less games in 10 days), provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning teams, are 34-13 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 186.0, but teams have combined to score just 183.6 points on average in this situation. Also, the under is 6-2 in the Hawks' last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-2 in the Pacers' last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under. | |||||||
04-23-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Denver Nuggets -8 | Top | 131-117 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets -8 The Key: The Nuggets were fortunate to come away with a win in Game 1, but that close call will serve as a wake-up call. They are now 39-3 this season at home where they carry an average winning margin of 10.6 points. They are 24-0 in their last 24 at home and have won these by 12.0 points on average. Denver threw a lot of different looks at Stephen Curry in Game 1, and it worked to disrupt his rhythm as he finished with just 19 points on 7 of 20 shooting. With David Lee being lost for the season with a hip injury, the Nuggets will be able to focus on Curry even more. Denver is also 4-0 in its last 4 home games versus Golden State and has won these by an average of 15.8 points. Lay the points. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |