Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-13 | Atlanta Braves -160 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -160 The Key: The Braves should end their 4-game slide tonight against a Miami club they have owned. They have won 39 of the last 54 meetings overall and 20 of the last 26 in Miami. The Braves have the edge on the mound with Medlen, who has a 2.58 ERA in 7 career starts against the Marlins. Atlanta is an unbeaten 7-0 in those starts. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 15-0 all-time in Medlen's starts in the second half of the season versus clubs that average 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. It has won these games by an average score of 6.4 to 2.5. The Marlins are 0-2 in Alvarez's last two starts versus the Braves. He's allowed 9 runs in 12 innings in these two starts. Take Atlanta. | |||||||
09-08-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -121 v. Cincinnati Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* (ESPN) on Dodgers -121 The Key: Motivated by defeats in the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind a gem from their ace. Kershaw has a 1.89 ERA on the season, and I expect him to be very focused here after getting hit hard at Colorado his last time out. The Dodgers still won that game and are 3-0 in his last 3 road starts. Bailey has pitched well of late for Cincinnati, but his 3.42 ERA pales in comparison with Kershaw's ERA. Plus, Bailey has a 4.23 ERA in 7 starts against the Dodgers and is 0-2 in his last 2. Kershaw, on the other hand, has a 2.81 ERA in 7 starts versus the Reds, and the Dodgers are 4-0 all-time in his road starts versus Cincinnati. The Dodgers are also 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 the last 4 times he's gotten the ball in the third game of a series. Take LA. | |||||||
09-07-13 | Detroit Tigers -125 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Tigers -125 The Key: The Tigers are worth every penny at this price with Verlander on the hill. The big right-hander is 15-4 with a 2.71 ERA in 27 starts versus Kansas City. He has yet to record a win against the Royals this season despite a 2.60 ERA. However, the odds are in our favor as he's notched at least one win over Kansas City each of the last seven years. He'll be very focused here, and I like his chances of getting some run support with the way the Tigers swung the sticks last night. Duffy has a 4.08 ERA in 5 starts against the Tigers and is 0-3 in 3 home starts against them. The Royals are 1-8 in Duffy's last 9 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 Saturday games while the Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. The Tigers are also 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Detroit. | |||||||
09-06-13 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins -133 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Marlins -133 The Key: The Marlins have the edge on the mound with Fernandez, who has a 1.29 ERA at home this season. Washington's Haren has a 4.29 ERA on the road. Haren's clubs are 0-6 since the beginning of last season in his starts against teams with a win percentage of 38% or lower. Washington is 0-9 in his starts this season against poor power teams that average 0.9 home runs or less per game. The Nationals are 0-7 in Haren's starts this season versus NL teams scoring 3.8 runs or less per game. They are also 0-7 in his road starts this season when the money line is +125 to -125. The Nationals are 0-6 in Haren's last 6 starts as an underdog. The Marlins are 9-0 in Fernandez's last 9 home starts, 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. Additionally, the Fish are 7-0 this season in his home starts after giving up 2 earned runs or fewer in his last 2 outings. Haren is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus the Marlins. He's also 0-4 on the money line in 4 career starts in Miami. Take the Marlins. | |||||||
09-05-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Baltimore Orioles -147 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -147 The Key: The White Sox are 0-6 in their last 6 games, and I expect their struggles to continue against a motivated Baltimore club that is fighting for the final wild card spot. One thing you don't want to do is go against the Orioles at home with Gonzalez on the hill. That's because they are 12-2 in his last 14 home starts. The White Sox are 2-8 in Quintana's last 10 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 12-41 in their last 53 road games versus winning teams. The Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Take Baltimore. | |||||||
09-04-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies -119 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
7* NL West Game of the Year on Rockies -119 The Key: With a big lead in the division, the Dodgers are expected to give some of their big guns a breather Wednesday. Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig are expected to sit this one out, and more could be added to the list. In addition, L.A. is giving Edinson Volquez the ball. That bodes extremely well for us as his clubs are 0-6 in his last 6 starts versus the Rockies, a stretch where he's posted a 12.46 ERA. The Dodgers would have a tough enough time winning against Jorge De La Rosa, let alone without some of their key bats. The Rockies are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts. They are 6-0 in his home starts this season when the money line is +125 to -125. They are 8-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season against winning clubs. They are 11-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season against division opponents. Colorado lost yesterday, but it is a perfect 12-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts following a team loss. Take Colorado. | |||||||
09-03-13 | Washington Nationals -154 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Nationals -154 The Key: The Nationals have the advantage on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals are 41-20 in his last 61 starts and 21-8 in his last 29 road starts. And, they have never lost with Gonzalez on the mound as a road favorite of -125 or more. They are a perfect 10-0 in this situation, winning by an average of 3.3 runs. He has been dominant against the Phillies. The Nats are 5-1 in his 6 starts against them while he has posted a 2.31 ERA. They are 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Phillies with all 3 coming in Philadelphia. Take Washington. | |||||||
09-02-13 | San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres -143 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Padres -143 The Key: Kennedy hasn't been as good as expected this season. However, he has quietly been plenty good lately, holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his last 8 starts. Now, is the time to back Kennedy. He's been at his best in September the past couple seasons. In fact, his clubs are 10-0 in his starts the last two Septembers. Zito has been a dead fade. The Giants are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 12.27 ERA. He's been awful on the road where he has a 9.65 ERA. The Giants are 0-10 this season in his starts as a road underdog of +100 or higher. The Giants are also 0-5 in his last 5 series-opening starts, 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus losing teams and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus division opponents. The Giants are 0-3 in Zito's last 3 starts versus the Padres. Take San Diego. | |||||||
09-01-13 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -104 The Key: Greinke's clubs are 12-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the beginning of last season, winning these starts by an average score of 6.6 to 3.3. His teams are also 13-0 in his home starts in the second half of the season versus losing teams since 2011, winning these by an average score of 4.9 to 2.6. His clubs are 15-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since the start of the 2011 season, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.5. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season in his starts versus poor power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game, winning these by an average score of 3.8 to 1.6. LA is also 8-0 in his starts in the second half of this season versus clubs that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by an average score of 4.3 to 2.0. Take the Dodgers on the run line. | |||||||
08-31-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Milwaukee Brewers -138 | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers -138 The Key: The Halos can't be trusted with Jerome Williams on the mound. They are 0-8 in his last 8 starts and have lost these by over 3 runs on average. The Angels are 0-4 in Williams' last 4 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 interleague starts. He has a 12.91 in a pair of interleague starts this season. We successfully played against the Brewers Friday, but they are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are 17-8 in Estrada's last 25 starts, 9-4 in his last 13 home starts and 6-1 in his last 7 home starts versus a team with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. | |||||||
08-30-13 | Los Angeles Angels -122 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -122 The Key: The Halos are 5-1 on their current road trip, and I expect them to keep rolling behind a gem from ace Jered Weaver. The Angels are 44-12 in his last 56 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in his last 8 interleague starts. The Brewers are just 1-5 in Peralta's last 6 starts. Milwaukee's right-hander has a 4.51 ERA on the season. That's over a run higher than the 3.46 ERA Weaver is carrying. Peralta's ERA is significant because the Halos are 9-1 all-time under Scioscia in road games versus an NL starter whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70. Take LA. | |||||||
08-29-13 | Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Brewers +1.5 -148 The Key: Gallardo is in terrific form. The Brewers are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 2.65 ERA. Pittsburgh's Cole hasn't been nearly as sharp of late, as evidenced by the 4.24 ERA he's posted over his last 3 starts. Gallardo has owned the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-3 all-time in his starts against Pittsburgh, and he has posted a 2.58 ERA in these games. One of those losses came by a single run so the Brewers have covered today's run line in 15 of Gallardo's 17 starts against the Bucs. Take Milwaukee on the run line. | |||||||
08-28-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -149 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -149 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Cardinals -149 The Key: With losses in the first two games of this series, the Reds are now 0-5 in their last 5 road games versus teams with a winning record. They are not in good position to end this skid with Bailey getting the ball. The Reds are 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. Plus, he's had no luck against the Cards. The Reds are 0-4 in Bailey's last 4 starts versus the Cardinals. They are also 0-7 all-time in his road starts versus St. Louis. The Cardinals, who are 5-0 in their last 5 game 3s of a series, are 3-0 in Wainwright's last 3 starts. He's been lights out in his last two, giving up just 2 runs in 16 innings while striking out 20 and walking 1. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
08-27-13 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 +120 The Key: Verlander isn't having the type of season we've come to expect from him, but I really like him in this spot against a club he's owned. He's 6-0 in his last six starts versus Oakland and has given up one earned run or none in each. These wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs with each coming by at least two runs. It is also worth noting that Detroit is a perfect 11-0 in Verlander's home starts in the second half of the season versus good teams with a winning percentage of 54-62% since 2011. The Tigers have won these games by 2.4 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line. | |||||||
08-26-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 -105 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back back defeats, I fully expect the Dodgers to take care of business at home against a Chicago club they have owned. Keep in mind the Dodgers haven't lost three consecutive games since June 8-10. LA is 7-0 in its last 7 versus the Cubs, winning these by 2.6 runs on average. LA is in fantastic hands with Greinke getting the ball. It is 5-0 in his last 5 starts, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. It is also 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus teams that draw 3 walks or less per game, winning these by 2.0 runs on average. In addition, Greinke's clubs are 11-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts versus teams that have a losing record, winning these by 3.2 runs on average. His clubs are 15-0 since the start of the 2011 season in his home starts as a favorite of -175 to -250, winning these by 3.4 runs on average. Lastly, Greinke is 3-0 all-time in 3 home starts versus the Cubs with his teams winning these by 3.7 runs on average. Take LA on the run line. | |||||||
08-25-13 | Los Angeles Angels -127 v. Seattle Mariners | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
6* Late Afternoon *MOUND MISMATCH* on Angels -127 The Key: The Angels are a good buy at this price considering the edge they have on the mound with Weaver, whose ERA is nearly two runs lower than Harang's. In addition, Weaver has a 3.32 career ERA against the Mariners while Harang has a 6.83 lifetime ERA against the Halos. The Angels are an impressive 43-12 in Weaver's last 55 starts as a favorite. Harang's clubs are 0-4 in his last 4 starts against the Angels. Seattle has lost all 3 of his starts against the Halos this season by a combined score of 29-6. Take the Angels. | |||||||
08-25-13 | Toronto Blue Jays -138 v. Houston Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Blue Jays -138 The Key: Houston hasn't won more than two consecutive games in over two months so the odds are definitely against it pulling off the sweep here. Houston is batting just .233 and scoring only 3.5 runs per game off of lefty starters this season while Toronto is batting .271 and scoring 5.0 runs per game off southpaw starters. With this in mind, the Jays appear to have a sizable advantage on the mound with Buehrle. They are 4-0 in his last four starts in the third game of a series, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus AL West clubs. Buehrle's clubs are 3-0 all-time in his starts against the Astros, and he's posted a 1.88 ERA in these starts. He threw a complete-game, 2-hit shutout versus the Astros last month. The Astros are 0-3 in Keuchel's last three home starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts coming on 7 or more days' rest. Take Toronto. | |||||||
08-24-13 | Washington Nationals -109 v. Kansas City Royals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -109 The Key: I'll gladly get behind Washington at this price given the advantage it has on the mound with Zimmermann. The Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 while Kansas City is 0-6 in its last 6, and they should get a strong performance from Zimm, who is 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA. The Nationals are 7-0 in his last 7 starts in the second game of a series and 5-0 in his last 5 starts versus the American League Central. The Royals, who are 0-6 in their last 6 home games, don't figure to get a gem from Davis, who's 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA. The Royals are 0-4 in Davis' last 4 starts as a home underdog. Take Washington. | |||||||
08-24-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 108 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +108 The Key: The Reds are showing value on the run line give the edges they hold on the mound and at the plate. The Reds lost yesterday, and that's in our best interest. Consider that they are 14-1 since the beginning of last season in home games following an upset loss at home to a division rival. They are also 14-1 since the start of last season in home games when out for revenge for an upset loss at home in a game where they were listed at -150 or higher. In addition, Cincy is 19-2 this season in home games following a defeat. It is also 9-1 this season when Arroyo gets the ball following a loss. The Reds have won each of Arroyo's last 3 starts by 2 runs or more while the Brewers have dropped Peralta's last 2 by 2 runs or more. The Reds have won both of Arroyo's starts against the Brewers this season while the Brewers have lost each of Peralta's 3 career starts in Cincinnati. Take Cincy on the run line. | |||||||
08-23-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Francisco Giants -143 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
7* National League Game of the Month on Giants -143 The Key: The Giants are this large of a favorite for a reason, and that reason is the significant advantage they have on the mound with Bumgarner. He has a 2.87 ERA on the season and a 2.40 ERA at home. Pittsburgh's Morton has a road ERA that's over a run higher than Bumgarner's home number. The Giants are 25-11 in Bumgarner's last 36 starts as a home favorite. The Pirates are 13-30 in Morton's last 43 road starts, 19-42 in his last 61 starts as an underdog, 5-15 in his last 20 road starts versus a team with a losing record and 1-5 in his last 6 starts versus the Giants. Bumgarner has a 0.69 ERA against the Bucs, and they haven't seen him since 2011. They'll be in for a rude awakening. San Francisco just saw Morton in June in a game it won 10-0. Take the Giants. | |||||||
08-22-13 | Atlanta Braves v. St. Louis Cardinals -132 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -132 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Kelly. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall, and he's allowed 1 earned run or fewer in 3 of these. The Cards are also 3-0 in his last 3 home starts. The Braves are 0-3 in Maholm's last 3 starts, a stretch where he's posted a 10.13 ERA. He has an ERA of 6.03 on the road this season. Maholm's clubs are 0-11 in his road starts since the beginning of last season when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. They have lost these starts by an average score of 5.5 to 2.5. In addition, Maholm's clubs have lost 4 of his last 5 starts against the Cardinals and are 0-2 in St. Louis during this stretch. He allowed 10 earned runs in 10 innings in the 2 losses in St. Louis. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
08-21-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -163 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -163 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -163 The Key: Look for the Royals to bounce back this evening against a Chicago club that is 11-30 in its last 41 road games, 13-39 in its last 52 road games versus a team with a winning record and 5-18 in its last 23 in the second game of a series. The Royals are 12-3 in their last 15 in the second game of a series, and they are in good hands with Guthrie. They Royals are 25-11 in his last 36 starts, 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and 10-2 in his last 12 starts in the second game of a series. The Royals are also 6-1 in Guthrie's last seven starts versus the White Sox. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
08-21-13 | Cleveland Indians -143 v. Los Angeles Angels | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Indians -143 The Key: It's been a terribly disappointing season for the Angels, who will have a tough time bouncing back from yesterday's 14-inning punch in the gut. LA's Williams is having a terrible campaign. The Angels are 0-7 in his last seven starts, and he's given up at least four runs in nine of his last 12 outings. The Angels are also 0-5 in his last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Angels are 0-5 in their last five home games versus a right-handed starter, 0-6 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last four in the third game of a series. Justin Masterson isn't the righty they want to see. The Indians are 3-0 in his last three starts against the Angels, and he has a 1.94 ERA in eight career starts against them. It is also worth noting that the Tribe is 4-0 in its last four road games versus a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland. | |||||||
08-20-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -144 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -144 The Key: The Dodgers will go after this game with all they've got because they have to win it to give themselves a chance at a sixth straight series win. They have at least split each of their last 17 series' so they must win at least two in Miami to keep their unbeaten series streak alive. You can bet they'll leave it all on the field to make sure the NL-worst Marlins don't rain on their parade. The Dodgers are 42-10 in their last 52 overall and 24-5 in their last 29 on the road. They are 6-0 in Capuano's last 6 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 1-5 in Turner's last 6 starts and 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus an opponent that allowed 5 runs or more in its previous game. Take the Dodgers. | |||||||
08-19-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels -126 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -126 The Key: Weaver was absolutely rocked at New York in his most recent start. That actually bodes well for us because he will be that much more focused and determined tonight. It hasn't been wise to go against the Angels' ace at home. In fact, LA is 20-4 in his home starts since the beginning of last season. In addition, LA is 39-14 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 or less. Weaver just pitched a gem in a 5-2 win at Cleveland Aug. 9, and he's 7-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Indians. The Angels have won 11 of these. Take Los Angeles. | |||||||
08-18-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
7* MLB Blowout Game of the Week on Rangers -1.5 -129 The Key: I expect Texas to win convincingly this afternoon as it faces Seattle scheduled starter Ramirez, who has a hefty 7.06 ERA. The Rangers are in much better hands with Yu Darvish, who has a 2.64 ERA. He leads the majors with 207 strikeouts and opponents are batting just .186 against him. Darvish is 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.64 ERA. He's also 3-0 all-time in three home starts versus the Mariners. The Rangers won these three by six, six and seven runs, respectively. Take Texas on the run line. | |||||||
08-17-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates -162 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -162 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -162 The Key: I'll fade Arizona as it sends Cahill to the hill for the first time in nearly seven weeks. He was awful on the road, where he carried a 5.44 ERA, before going on the DL. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Cahill's last 5 road starts. The Pirates, who are 6-0 in their last 6 at home, are in good hands with Locke set to get the ball. The southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.43 ERA on the season. The Pirates are 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts as a home favorite. The Pirates are 23-6 in their last 29 games as a home favorite, and they've won 8 of their last 11 home games versus Arizona. Take Pittsburgh. | |||||||
08-16-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Oakland A's -127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -127 The Key: The A's are showing value at home at this price with A.J. Griffin on the hill. They are 16-4 in his last 20 home starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a favorite. Griffin has a 3.63 ERA at home and a 1.131 WHIP. His WHIP is significant because the Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Indians are also 0-4 in their last 4 series openers and 0-4 in their last 4 versus teams with a winning record. Cleveland's Justin Masterson has been hit hard in his last two outings, and he has a 4.37 road ERA on the season. The Indians are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts versus teams with a winning record. He has a 9.08 ERA in 7 career starts versus the A's, and the Indians are 0-4 all-time in his road starts against them. The Indians are 0-4 in their last 4 meetings in Oakland. Take the A's. | |||||||
08-15-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers +1.5 -133 The Key: I'll gladly take the Brewers catching 1.5 runs at a pretty nice price with Lohse on the hill. The Brewers are 5-0 in his last five starts, and he's posted a 1.74 ERA during this stretch. They are also 7-0 in his last seven home starts, and he's recorded a 2.56 ERA during this span. Lohse has a 1.95 ERA over his last eight starts against the Reds, and his clubs are 4-0 in his last four home starts against them. It is also worth mentioning that the Brewers are 4-0 in Lohse's last four starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 5-0 in his last five series-opening starts. The Brewers check in off a loss but are 4-0 in their last four games following defeat. The Reds are just 1-5 in their last six meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Brew Crew on the run line. | |||||||
08-14-13 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -134 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -134 The Key: I love the Rockies at home at this price with De La Rosa getting the ball. They are 10-0 in his home starts against division opponents since the start of the 2011 season. They are also 7-0 this season when he gets the start in a day game. Colorado lost yesterday, but it is 9-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts following a loss in its previous game. This trend speaks to the type of competitor De La Rosa is and how confident the Rockies are with him on the mound. In addition, the Rocks are 10-0 in De La Rosa's last 10 starts against the Padres. Take Colorado. | |||||||
08-14-13 | Detroit Tigers -153 v. Chicago White Sox | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
6* AL *CA$H COW* on Tigers -153 The Key: The White Sox are 0-5 in Danks' last 5 starts. They are 0-5 this season in his starts versus division opponents. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus teams that have a winning record and 0-4 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. He's 0-2 in a pair of starts against the Tigers this season. Detroit doesn't run much. It has beat teams with timely hitting and power hitting. This is significant because the White Sox are 0-11 in Danks' starts since the beginning of the 2011 season versus teams that average 0.35 stolen bases per game. The Tigers are 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts as a favorite. They are also 3-0 in his starts against the White Sox this season. Take Detroit in this bounce back spot. | |||||||
08-13-13 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Dodgers -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -123 The Key: The Dodgers are 8-0 in the second half of the season versus NL clubs with a batting average of .245 or worse. They are 10-0 in the second half of the season versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .315 or worse. The Mets have won five of seven but are 0-14 this season when checking into a contest with five or six wins in their last seven games. New York's Harvey has had a spectacular season, but LA's Ryu has been every bit as good. The Dodgers are 8-0 in Ryu's last eight starts while the Mets have lost two of Harvey's last three and four of his last seven. The Dodgers are 8-0 this season in Ryu's starts versus teams that have a losing record. The Mets are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings with the Dodgers. Take LA. | |||||||
08-12-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees -155 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Baseball Game of the Year on Yankees -155 The Key: The Yankees enter this series with plenty of momentum after winning a series against the reigning AL champion Tigers. They should get a gem from Kuroda, who owns the best home ERA (1.74) in the AL. The Yankees are 7-0 in Kuroda's last 7 home starts versus teams with losing records. Kuroda has a 2.67 career ERA against the Angels with his clubs going 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them. LA's Richards was shelled in his only previous start against the Yankees, giving up 6 runs in 5 innings of a 9-3 loss. He's really struggled on the road where the Angels are 0-4 in his last 4 starts. He has a 6.11 road ERA this season. The Angels are 0-9 in their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take New York. | |||||||
08-11-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -139 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-3 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
6* NL *CA$H COW* on Pirates -139 The Key: Pittsburgh has the edge on the mound with Jeff Locke, who's 9-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 22 starts. He's been at his best on the road where he has a 1.83 ERA. The Rockies haven't been able to breakthrough against good NL starters as they are 6-19 this season versus NL starting pitchers that have an ERA of 3.00 or better. They have lost by an average score of 4.5 to 2.7 in these contests. It is also worth noting that the Rockies are 17-39 in their last 56 games versus a left-handed starter. Take Pittsburgh. | |||||||
08-11-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Cleveland Indians -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Week on Indians -1.5 +111 The Key: The Angels are at a disadvantage with Jerome Williams on the hill. They are 0-5 in his last 5 starts with an average losing margin of 3.4 runs. Williams has a 5.46 ERA on the season. Cleveland's Justin Masterson, meanwhile, has a 3.46 ERA. His home ERA is 2.82, and his day game ERA is 1.98. Williams has a 6.33 ERA in day starts. The Indians are 9-3 in Masterson's last 12 home starts. Masterson's clubs are 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus the Angels, and he has a 1.35 ERA in 7 career starts against LA. The Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200 while the Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take Cleveland on the run line. | |||||||
08-10-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Dodgers -146 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Month on Dodgers -146 The Key: Greinke has been an incredible investment at home where he has a 2.56 ERA this season. His clubs are 36-5 in his home starts dating back to the beginning of the 2011 season. The Dodgers are 8-1 in his home starts. Tampa Bay's Hernandez has struggled mightily on the road where he has a 5.71 ERA this season. The Rays are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog. The Rays are also 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games versus a winning club. Take the Dodgers. | |||||||
08-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies +1.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Rockies +1.5 The Key: The Rockies are showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at this price with De La Rosa on the hill. They are an incredible 40-15 in his last 55 home starts, including 14-2 in his last 16 home starts versus teams with a winning record. Colorado is happy to be back home following a tough 10-game road trip. It has lost its last five games, but it is 8-0 this season in De La Rosa's starts when it checks in off a loss. It has won by an average score of 5.9 to 3.8 in this spot. It is also worth noting that Colorado has won or lost by a single run in five of De La Rosa's last seven starts against the Pirates. The Pirates are just -5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Take Colorado. | |||||||
08-08-13 | Boston Red Sox -118 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -118 The Key: The Red Sox are showing value at this price with Jon Lester on the hill. The veteran southpaw has a strong track record against the Royals. He's 6-2 with an ERA of 1.64 in nine starts against them. Kansas City is batting only .233 and scoring just 3.3 runs per game off left-handed starters this season. Boston, meanwhile, is batting .261 and scoring 4.5 runs per game off lefty starters. It figures to have success at the plate against Bruce Chen, who is 3-5 with a 6.11 ERA in 11 starts against the Red Sox. His clubs are 1-6 in his last 7 starts versus Boston while the Red Sox are 5-2 in Lester's last 7 starts versus the Royals. Take Bean Town. | |||||||
08-07-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians +111 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
6* MLB Wednesday Night *CA$H COW* on Indians +111 The Key: Despite losing the first two games of this series, the Tribe is still 10-3 in its last 13 overall. It's 10-3 in its last 13 games after losing the first two games of a series and 4-0 in its last four games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. In addition, Cleveland is 10-0 since the beginning of last season when checking in off two straight home defeats to a division rival. It has won by an average score of 6.8 to 3.1 in this spot. Detroit's Fister hasn't been as strong on the road where he has a 4.08 ERA. The Tigers are 3-13 in his last 16 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 1-7 in his last eight starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 0-5 in his last five road starts versus a team with a winning record. Detroit is also 0-3 in his last three starts in Cleveland. Take the Tribe. | |||||||
08-07-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. San Diego Padres +111 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
7* MLB Day Game of the Month on Padres +111 The Key: The Padres lost the first game of this two-game set 4-1, but they are 7-0 in their last seven games following a loss and 8-0 in their last eight after being held to two runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Game 2s of a series and 0-4 in their last four games versus a left-handed starter. Their struggles against lefties should continue as the Padres are 8-1 in Stults' last nine starts at home where he has a 2.35 ERA on the season. His clubs are 9-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts versus teams that draw an average of three walks or less per game. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez has been lit up in his last two starts, and the Orioles are just 2-7 in his last nine road starts. Take San Diego. | |||||||
08-06-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. San Francisco Giants -165 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -165 The Key: The Giants have the edge on the mound with Matt Cain, who has looked more like himself lately. The veteran right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts. In addition, he's allowed three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. It bodes well for us that he enters off a gem because the Giants are 23-9 in his last 32 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta has had an up and down season, and it's been down lately. He's 0-2 in his last two starts while giving up 12 runs in just 8 2-3 innings. The Brewers are 3-8 in Peralta's last 11 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is just 3-19 since the beginning of last season as an underdog of +150 or higher. It is also 9-33 since the start of last season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Giants, on the other hand, are 56-23 in their last 79 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus the Brewers. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
08-05-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -166 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -166 The Key: The Royals are rolling. They've won 11 of 12 and should keep right on rolling against a Minnesota club they have dominated. Kansas City is 10-3 this season against the Twins, including 4-0 in the last four meetings. The Royals are in good hands with Jeremy Guthrie. He is 3-0 in his last three starts, which is even more significant when you consider that the Royals are 6-0 this season in his home starts when he checks in off a win. The Royals are 15-2 in Guthrie's last 17 home starts. The Twins aren't in the same hands with Kevin Correia on the rubber. They are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts on regular rest (4 days). His clubs are 0-4 all-time in his starts versus Kansas City, and he's posted a poor 5.02 ERA in these games. The Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 6-0 in their last 6 versus the American League Central and 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Twins are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 versus the American League Central. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
08-04-13 | Washington Nationals v. Milwaukee Brewers -119 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -119 The Key: The Brewers have the edge on the mound with Lohse. They are 3-0 in his last 3 starts while he's posted a 0.47 ERA. They are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a losing record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. Lohse's clubs are also 15-1 since the beginning of last season in his starts versus NL clubs with a batting average of .245 or worse. His clubs are 11-1 during the same time frame in his starts versus NL clubs that average 3.8 runs or fewer per game. Take Milwaukee. | |||||||
08-03-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Month on Tigers -1.5 -125 The Key: The Tigers are rolling. They are 7-0 in their last seven home games with a 5.6-run average winning margin. The White Sox, meanwhile, are ice cold. They are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with a 2.3-run average losing margin. Detroit has been lighting up left-handed pitching. It is batting .277 and scoring 5.4 runs per game off southpaw starters this season and is 8-0 in its last eight games versus a lefty starter. The Tigers won these eight by an average of 4.9 runs. Their success against lefties should continue as Chicago is 0-3 in Danks' starts versus AL Central foes this season. It's lost these starts by 3.0 runs on average while he's posted a 6.50 ERA. The White Sox are 0-4 in his last four starts in Detroit, losing these by 4.0 runs on average. Chicago is 0-4 in its last four road games versus right-handed starters and will have its work cut our for itself as it goes up against Scherzer. The Tigers are 8-0 in his starts versus AL Central opponents this season. They've won these by an average of 8.0 runs while he's posted a 3.20 ERA. The Tigers are 4-0 in his last four starts against the Sox, winning these by an average of 3.0 runs. Take Detroit on the run line. | |||||||
08-02-13 | New York Yankees -107 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -107 The Key: Sabathia has struggled of late but will be very focused here as a result. He's been outstanding in interleague action throughout his career, and nothing has changed this season as he's 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in a pair of starts versus the N.L. He's also never lost to San Diego, going 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.12 in four starts against the Padres. The Yankees are 36-19 in interleague road games under manager Girardi while the Padres are 20-33 in interleague home games under manager Black. Lastly, the Yanks are 5-0 in their last five games against San Diego. Take New York. | |||||||
08-02-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Red Sox -1.5 +115 The Key: Boston is showing value on the run line at home with Jon Lester on the mound. That's because it is 8-0 this season in his home starts, and he's posted a 2.95 ERA during this run. The Red Sox have won these eight starts by an average of 2.6 runs. Randall Delgado was torched in Boston last season, giving up 4 earned runs on six hits in just 1 1-3 innings. Lester, on the other hand, gave up only two earned on four hits in seven innings of a 6-2 win in his lone starts versus Arizona. Take Boston on the run line. | |||||||
08-01-13 | Kansas City Royals -145 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -145 The Key: Kansas City is rolling. The Royals are 8-0 in their last 8 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 road games, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Royals are also 4-0 in their last 4 games versus a left-handed starter, and they should have their way with Scott Diamond. Minnesota's southpaw has a 6.06 ERA at home on the season. Twins are 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog. The Royals are in better hands with James Shields getting the ball. The right-hander has a 2.50 ERA on the road, and the Royals are 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record. Shield's clubs are 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus the Twins while Diamond is 0-2 in his last 2 starts versus Kansas City. Take the Royals. | |||||||
07-31-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -115 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
7* Wednesday Night Baseball Game of the Year on Cardinals -115 The Key: The Cardinals are lacking no motivation after suffering their fifth and sixth consecutive defeats yesterday. I fully expect them to bounce back strong behind a gem from Wainwright, who's more proven than Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke. The Cards are 13-3 in Wainwright's last 16 road starts, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 8-2 in his last 10 starts versus NL Central foes. The Cards are 5-2 in his last 7 starts against the Pirates and 6-2 all-time in his starts in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals haven't been getting it done with the long ball. However, the Pirates are 0-6 in Locke's starts in the second half of the season the last two seasons versus teams that average 0.9 or fewer home runs per game. They have lost to these teams by an average of 4.0 runs. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
07-30-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Philadelphia Phillies -130 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Phillies -130 The Key: The Phillies have lost eight in a row, but all eight came on the road with the last six coming against first-place clubs St. Louis and Detroit. I like Philly's chances of ending its skid tonight in its return home as it is 40-14 in its last 54 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. It is also 6-1 in its last seven home games versus club with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Giants are 8-22 in their last 30 overall, including 0-4 in their last four. Zito has been awful on the road where he's 0-6 (1-8 on the money line) with a 9.39 ERA in nine starts. The Giants are 0-5 in his last five road starts versus a team with a losing record and 0-4 in his last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. San Francisco is also 0-3 in Zito's last three starts in Philadelphia. Lannan has a 2.73 ERA at home where the Phillies have won four of his five starts. He also has a 1.74 ERA in three starts versus the Giants, who are 1-7 in their last eight games versus a left-handed starter. Take Philly. | |||||||
07-29-13 | Cincinnati Reds -151 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -151 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -151 The Key: The Reds represent the strongest play on the board for Monday. We're talking about a club that has lunched on lesser opponents, going 41-18 in their last 59 versus losing clubs. The Reds are 3-0 in their last three overall versus the Padres and 3-0 in their last three in San Diego. The Padres are a soft 10-26 as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, and their struggles in this price range figure to continue with O'Sullivan getting the pill. The right-hander's clubs are 0-7 in his last seven starts. Cincinnati's Mike Leake has been at his best on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.13 ERA. The Reds are 3-0 in his last three starts overall and 6-0 in his last six road starts versus losing clubs. Take Cincinnati. | |||||||
07-29-13 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins -108 | 6-5 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
6* MLB Line Mistake on Marlins -108 The Key: The Marlins are 5-0 in their last five versus the Mets, and I expect them to extend this streak behind another gem from Jacob Turner. The righty has a 1.80 ERA at home this season, and the Marlins are 6-0 in his last six home starts. New York is 0-3 in Jeremy Hefner's last three starts, a stretch where he's posted a 10.13 ERA. It is 6-14 in Hefner's last 20 starts and 3-13 in his last 16 starts versus the division. The Mets are also a mind-boggling 1-10 in their last 11 games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. Take Miami. | |||||||
07-28-13 | Chicago Cubs v. San Francisco Giants -149 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -149 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -149 The Key: After back-to-back one-run defeats, I fully expect the defending champs to dig down deep to salvage a game in the series. Travis Wood is having a pretty good season for the Cubs. However, he was hit hard his last time out in a 4-10 loss at Arizona, and the Cubs aren't winning with him on the hill. They are just 10-26 in his last 36 starts, 5-22 in his last 27 starts as an underdog, 0-5 in his last 5 road starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog. In addition, Wood has never defeated the Giants. He's 0-2 (0-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.38 in 4 starts against them. Lincecum hasn't looked like a two-time Cy Young winner the last couple years, but he showed he's still capable of brilliance with a no-no a week-and-a-half ago. The Giants are 2-0 in his last 2 starts against the Cubs, and he has a 3.69 ERA in 11 career starts against them. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
07-27-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -146 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -146 The Key: Look for the Pirates to bounce back strong behind Charlie Morton, who's been dealing (3.34 ERA). The Pirates are 5-1 in Morton's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Miami's Koehler has struggled at home where he has an ERA of 6.35. The Marlins are 0-4 in Koehler's last 4 starts as a home underdog and 3-8 in his last 11 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Pirates are 24-11 in their last 35 games as a favorite while the Marlins are 19-43 in their last 62 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take Pittsburgh. | |||||||
07-26-13 | Chicago Cubs v. San Francisco Giants -156 | 3-2 | Loss | -156 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Giants -156 The Key: The defending champs have owned the Cubs. They've won 10 of the last 12 meetings overall and are 5-0 in their last five home matchups with the North Siders. Matt Cain hasn't been himself this season. However, he's coming off a strong outing and has had Chicago's number. He has a 2.46 ERA in 14 career starts against the Cubs, and the Giants are 5-0 in his last five home starts against them. The Cubs are a dismal 4-22 in NL West ballparks under manager Sveum, and they are 0-4 in Edwin Jackson's last four starts versus NL West foes. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
07-26-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* of the Week on Mariners -1.5 -102 The Key: The Mariners have won nine of 10. This stretch bodes well for us considering they are 11-0 in home games since the beginning of last when checking into a contest with six or seven wins in eight games. They have won by an average score of 5.0 to 2.2 in this situation. In addition, the Mariners are 6-0 in their last six home games versus the Twins, winning these by an average of 3.8 runs. Minnesota finds itself at a major disadvantage on the mound with Scott Diamond getting the ball. It is 0-5 in his last five starts, losing them by an average of 4.4 runs. It is also 0-7 in his last seven starts as an underdog, losing these by 4.7 runs on average. The M's, on the other hand, are 4-0 in Felix Hernandez's last four starts, winning them by 5.5 runs on average. Hernandez went 2-0 against Minnesota last season, allowing no runs in 17 innings. Take Seattle on the run line. | |||||||
07-26-13 | Texas: M Perez v. Cleveland: C Kluber -130 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
7* AL Game of the Month on Indians -130 The Key: The Rangers have dropped nine of 12, and I expect their struggles to continue in Cleveland where the Indians are 4-0 in their last four. Texas southpaw Martin Perez, who has a 5.50 ERA over his last three starts, has his work cut out for himself against a Cleveland lineup hitting .267 and scoring 5.1 runs per game off left-handed starters. The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven games versus a left-handed starter. The Tribe is in excellent hands on the mound with Corey Kluber, who has a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. It is 4-0 in Kluber's last four home starts. He gave up just one run in eight innings of work in a 5-2 win at Texas last month, and I expect him to deliver another gem here. Take Cleveland. | |||||||
07-25-13 | Cincinnati: M Latos v. Los Angeles: Z Greinke -114 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -114 The Key: Zack Greinke is dealing. The Dodgers are 6-0 in his last six starts, and he's posted a barely visible 0.41 ERA over his last three. The right-hander has been unstoppable at Dodger Stadium where he hasn't lost. He's 6-0 - 8-0 on the money line - with a 2.09 ERA in eight starts there. Cincy's Mat Latos, on the other hand, has never won at Dodger Stadium. He's 0-5 in five starts there with a 3.95 ERA. The Dodgers are 6-0 in their last six games, a welcome sign given that Greinke's teams are 12-0 in his home starts the last three seasons after two or more consecutive victories. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers are 7-0 in Greinke's starts versus clubs averaging 0.5 stolen bases or less per game. L.A. is 7-0 in its last seven games versus winning clubs and 8-0 in its last eight series openers. Take the Dodgers. | |||||||
07-24-13 | Miami Marlins v. Colorado Rockies -162 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
7* National League Game of the Month on Rockies -162 The Key: Off back-to-back losses to lowly Miami, I fully expect the Rockies to bounce back strong at home behind a gem from De La Rosa. The sensational southpaw has been incredibly clutch. The Rockies are a 100% perfect 7-0 this season in his starts after a team loss in their previous game. This tells me De La Rosa has been able to rise to the occasion when his team needs him the most. In addition, the Rockies are 24-4 all-time in his starts as a favorite of -150 or more. They are 14-1 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 to -175. The Marlins are 1-6 in Jacob Turner's last 7 road starts. Take Colorado. | |||||||
07-24-13 | San Diego Padres v. Milwaukee Brewers -148 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Brewers -148 The Key: The Brewers have the edge on the mound with Kyle Lohse, who has been lights out at home. The Brew Crew are 5-0 in his last five home starts, and he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of these starts. The Brewers are also 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite, and his teams are 3-0 in his last three home starts versus San Diego. Lohse shut the Padres down in a 7-1 road win earlier this season. Sean O'Sullivan's teams are 0-6 in his last six starts. He's given up at least six runs in five of these losses. The Padres won the first two games of this series, but they are 0-9 in their last 9 game 3s of a series. Take Milwaukee. | |||||||
07-24-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Los Angeles Angels -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Delight* on Angels -1.5 -107 The Key: The Angels are a sound investment with Jered Weaver on the hill at home where he has an ERA of 2.44 this season. Minnesota's Mike Pelfrey is carrying a 5.49 ERA on the road. Right away, I love the fact that LA is 30-7 in Weaver's home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season. They have won these by an average score of 4.8 to 2.4. It also bodes well for us that Weaver gave up no runs in 6 2-3 innings of a 4-1 win over Oakland his last time out. That's because the Halos are 15-1 in his home starts after a start where he gave up one earned run or less since the beginning of the 2011 season. They have won these by an average score of 5.8 to 2.1. The Angels have never lost to the Twins in LA with Weaver on the hill. They are 6-0 all-time in his home starts against them, winning these by an average of 5.7 runs. | |||||||
07-23-13 | Atlanta Braves -130 v. New York Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -130 The Key: The Mets have dropped 40 of their last 56 games when listed as a home underdog of +110 to +150, and I expect their struggles in this spot to continue with Medlen on the mound. The Braves are an impressive 23-4 in Medlen's last 27 starts versus losing clubs, 9-1 in his last 10 road starts versus losing clubs and 18-3 in his last 21 starts versus division opponents. In addition, the Braves have never lost to Mets with Medlen on the hill. They are 7-0 all-time in his starts against New York, and he's posted a sweet 2.36 ERA in these games. These seven wins have come by an average of 4.0 runs. The Braves have won 18 of the last 25 meetings overall and 6 of the last 7 in New York. Take Atlanta. | |||||||
07-22-13 | Detroit Tigers -120 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Detroit Tigers -120 The Key: Detroit's Max Scherzer has absolutely owned division opponents. The Tigers are 7-0 in his starts against the AL Central this season, and he's posted a 3.35 ERA in these starts. Chicago's Chris Sale hasn't been as effective against the division, going just 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts. Scherzer has had his way with Chicago. He has a 2.51 ERA in 13 starts against the White Sox, and the Tigers are 3-0 in his last three starts against them. Sale, on the other hand, is 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA in four starts versus Detroit. In addition, the Tigers are 4-0 in Scherzer's last four road starts. Take Detroit. | |||||||
07-21-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Giants -1.5 +140 The Key: The Giants have a huge advantage on the mound with Bumgarner. They are 3-0 in his last three and 6-1 in his last seven starts. All six of these wins have come by at least two runs. Delgado's teams, on the other hand, are 3-9 in his last 12 starts. Eight of these defeats came by two runs or more. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last five division games, losing these by 3.0 runs on average. They are also 0-4 in their last four road games versus left-handed starters, losing these by 2.5 runs on average. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four versus Arizona, winning these by 3.0 runs on average. Take San Francisco on the run line. | |||||||
07-21-13 | Oakland A's -118 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland A's -118 The Key: Oakland's bats have struggled in this series, but I expect the sticks to come alive against Jerome Williams, who has a 19.12 ERA over his last three starts. Oakland's Bartolo Colon is in top form with a 2.21 ERA over his last three starts. It bodes well for us that he's held his last two opponents to one and two earned runs, respectively, as the A's are 8-0 in his starts this season after he gives up two earned runs or fewer in his previous two outings. They have won by an average score of 5.6 to 2.6 in this situation. Colon has also been dominant on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last five starts. It is also worth noting that Colon posted a 1.66 ERA in three starts against the Angels last season. Take Oakland. | |||||||
07-20-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Toronto Blue Jays -107 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Blue Jays -107 The Key: Tampa Bay's Hellickson hasn't been the same pitcher on the road where he has a 5.25 ERA. The Rays are 3-9 in his last 12 road starts, and they're even 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a losing record. Toronto's Buehrle has been great at home where he has a 3.30 ERA. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in Buehrle's last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Rays are 0-2 in Hellickson's last two starts in Toronto. Take the Blue Jays. | |||||||
07-19-13 | Chicago (N): Samardzija v. Colorado: De La Rosa -147 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -147 The Key: The Cubs have dropped 18 of their last 24 in Colorado, and their struggles against the Rockies figure to continue with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. The sensational southpaw has been lights out at home where the Rockies have won 39 of his last 53 starts. The Rockies are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. They're also 9-0 the last 3 seasons in his home starts when the total is 8.5 to 10. In addition, Colorado hasn't lost to the Cubs with De La Rosa on the mound, going 4-0 all-time. Chicago's Jeff Samardzija has been rocked in his last 2 starts, and the Cubs are 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Colorado. | |||||||
07-19-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -130 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
6* AL *CA$H COW* on Rays -130 The Key: The Rays have the edge on the hill with David Price, who is rounding into form with a 1.08 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Rays are 6-0 in Price's last 6 road starts versus losing clubs, and I expect this trend to continue given the success he's had against the Blue Jays. Price is 12-2 (14-2 on the money line) with a 2.28 ERA in 16 starts against them, and the Rays are 7-0 all-time in his starts in Toronto. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
07-14-13 | San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres -147 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Padres -147 The Key: The Giants have won the first three games of this series, but they can't be trusted on the road with Barry Zito on the bump. San Francisco is 0-7 in his road starts this season, which comes as no surprise considering his road ERA is 9.37. San Diego's Eric Stults, on the other hand, has been fantastic at home with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts. The Padres are 7-0 in his last seven home starts. The Giants aren't very patient at the plate. They are averaging just 2.7 walks per game, and that doesn't bode well for them against Stults, who is terrific at making opponents hit "his" pitch. The Padres are 8-0 since the beginning of last season in Stults' home starts versus teams that draw 3.0 walks or less per game. Take San Diego. | |||||||
07-13-13 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
6* Divisional *CA$H COW* on Marlins -120 The Key: Dan Haren has been atrocious. The Nationals are 0-9 in his last 9 starts overall and 0-6 in his last 6 road starts. He has a 5.57 road ERA, a figure that pales in comparison with Jose Fernandez's 1.47 home ERA. The Marlins are 4-0 in Fernandez's last 4 home starts. It's also worth noting that he has a blistering 1.12 ERA in division games. The light-hitting Nats aren't familiar with Fernandez, and that spells trouble for them tonight. | |||||||
07-13-13 | Colorado Rockies v. LOS DODGERS -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -161 The Key: The Rockies got the job done yesterday but are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Scheduled starter Tyler Chatwood checks in off a strong outing in San Diego, but the Rockies are 0-4 in his last 4 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. If there's one thing you don't want to do, it's go against Zack Greinke at home. The Dodgers haven't lost at home with Greinke on the mound, going 6-0. In addition, Greinke's teams are 21-0 in his home starts since the beginning of the 2011 season versus losing clubs. They've won these games by an average score of 6.1 to 3.3. Take L.A. | |||||||
07-12-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout Blowout on Dodgers -1.5 -115 The Key: The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last five games with each of these wins coming by at least two runs. They are also 3-0 in Clayton Kershaw's last three starts with each of these victories coming by at least two runs. He has a 1.08 ERA during this stretch. In addition, L.A. is 3-0 in Kershaw's last three starts versus the Rockies with these wins coming by two runs or more. It is also 7-0 in his last seven home starts versus Colorado with these wins coming by 3.4 runs on average. The Rockies are 0-3 in Juan Nicasio's last three starts. They lost these by an average of 3.7 runs while he posted an ERA of 9.00. Take L.A. on the run line. | |||||||
07-12-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Atlanta Braves -136 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Braves -136 The Key: The Reds have been fade material on the road when Bronson Arroyo get the ball. He's 1-5 with an ERA of 5.70 in six road starts, and the Reds are 0-5 in his last five starts as a road underdog. The Reds are 0-6 in their last six games as a road underdog overall. Kris Medlen has been rock solid at home where he has a 2.83 ERA. The Braves are 16-1 all-time in his starts in the second half of the schedule versus NL clubs with an on-base percent of .325 or worse. The Braves have won these starts by an average score of 6.4 to 2.4. Take Atlanta. | |||||||
07-11-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -130 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -130 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound and at the plate in this one. Jake Westbrook has a 2.78 ERA while Edwin Jackson has a 5.50 ERA. Plus, Westbrook is 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 starts versus the Cubs. The Cards are 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Chicago. Jackson is 1-4 with an ERA of 5.12 in 8 starts versus St. Louis. His teams are 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus the Redbirds. The Cardinals are batting .275 and scoring 5.0 runs per game while the Cubs are hitting .242 and scoring 4.1 runs per game. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, and I expect them to keep right on rolling. | |||||||
07-10-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Cleveland Indians -150 | 5-4 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
6* *Mound Mismatch* on Indians -150 The Key: The Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last four in the second game of a series, 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last four versus winning clubs. I don't see them snapping these negative trends tonight as they go up against Cleveland's Masterson. The Indians have won 8 of his 10 home starts while he's posted a 2.93 ERA. The Tribe is 5-0 in his last five starts versus losing clubs and 4-0 in his last four home starts versus losing clubs. Masterson is 2-0 in his last two starts versus Toronto, holding it to 1 run in 13 innings during this stretch. Toronto's Esmil Rogers has been shaky recently, going 0-2 (1-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.82 over his last three starts. Take Cleveland. | |||||||
07-10-13 | Kansas City Royals v. New York Yankees -128 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
7* *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -128 The Key: The Yankees have dropped the first two games of the series but are 42-16 in their last 58 games after losing the first two games of a series. They have also won 72 of their last 102 against Kansas City, including 39 of the last 52 home meetings. In addition, the Royals are 11-30 all-time under Yost in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. The Yankees are 30-7 all-time under Girardi when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent as a home favorite. The Yankees also have the edge on the rubber with Nova, who has a respectable 3.57 ERA over his last three starts. The Yankees are 5-0 in Nova's last 5 home starts versus a team with a losing record. The Royals are 0-3 in Davis' last three starts, and he's posted a 6.60 ERA during this stretch. Davis is also 0-2 in his last two starts versus the Yankees. Take New York. | |||||||
07-10-13 | Cincinnati Reds -160 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
6* Afternoon Delight on Reds -160 The Key: The Reds have dropped the first two games of this series, but I like their chances this afternoon considering Milwaukee has lost 23 of its last 29 in the third game of a series. The Brewers are also a terrible 9-22 in day games this season. In addition, Cincy has the edge on the mound with Leake, who's 5-1 with a 2.20 ERA on the road. The Reds are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road favorite. The Brewers are 0-2 in Hellweg's first two starts, and he's been lit up in both, giving up 14 runs in just 5 1-3 innings. Take Cincinnati. | |||||||
07-09-13 | New York Mets v. San Francisco Giants -131 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -131 The Key: The Giants have the advantage on the mound with Barry Zito, who's 4-1 (8-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.98 at home. The Giants are 8-1 in his last 9 home starts versus a team with a losing record and 10-2 in his last 12 starts as a home favorite. New York's Dillon Gee is just 3-4 (4-5 on the money line) with a 6.02 ERA on the road. The Mets are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus National League West foes, 0-7 in his last 7 Tuesday starts and 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a road underdog. Tuesday has been the worst day of the week to back the Mets as they have dropped 20 of their last 26 Tuesday contests. Take the Giants. | |||||||
07-09-13 | Cincinnati Reds -135 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Never Lost *Mound Mismatch* on Reds -135 The Key: We cashed in with the Brewers +1.5 last night, but I'm jumping ship for the Reds today given Milwaukee's struggles against left-handed starters. The Brewers are just 8-22 against southpaw starters this season as they're managing only 3.5 runs per game off them. Nothing figures to come easy against Cincy's Tony Cingrani, who's 3-0 (6-2 on the money line) with a 3.15 ERA in eight starts. The Reds are 5-0 in Cingrani's last 5 starts as a favorite. Milwaukee's Wily Peralta is 3-6 (4-6 on the money line) with a 6.12 ERA in 10 home starts. The Brewers are 3-8 in his last 11 starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus National League Central opponents. The Reds have never lost to Peralta, going 3-0 against him. Take the Reds. | |||||||
07-08-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers +1.5 -133 The Key: The Brewers are showing tremendous value catching 1.5 runs at home at this price. Cincy's Homer Bailey tossed a no-no his last time out. However, the Reds were 0-3 in his previous 3 starts, a stretch where he posted a 5.68 ERA. Expect Bailey to come back down to earth against a club that has had his number. The right-hander is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 starts against the Brewers. He's 0-2 in his last 2 starts at Milwaukee, giving up 11 runs in just 9 2-3 innings. The Reds are 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse has found his groove, going 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA in last 6 starts. The Brewers are 3-0 in Lohse's last 3 home starts. The righty has enjoyed plenty of success against the Reds, going 2-1 with a 1.76 ERA in his last 7 starts against them. His teams are 3-0 in his last 3 home starts against Cincy. Take Milwaukee on the run line. | |||||||
07-08-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays -147 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Rays -147 The Key: Here we have two clubs heading in opposite directions, and I'll gladly invest in the one on the upswing. The Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 overall and 5-0 in their last 5 home games. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 meetings with Minnesota. The Twins have dropped 7 of 8, and scheduled starter Same Deduno has struggled on the road where he has a 4.84 ERA. The Twins are 0-5 in Deduno's last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay's Roberto Hernandez has had his struggles as well but is coming off back-to-back quality outings and has a 4.20 home ERA. Take the Rays. | |||||||
07-07-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -155 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Pirates -155 The Key: The Pirates have a significant advantage on the mound with A.J. Burnett, who has an excellent track record at Wrigley. The right-hander is 5-0 in his last five starts on the North Side, including 2-0 as a member of the Pirates. Chicago's Carlos Villanueva is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.00 in two career starts versus Pittsburgh. The Cubs are 0-4 in his last 4 starts overall. The Pirates fell yesterday, but they are 22-6 in their last 28 following defeat and 7-1 in their last eight on the road. The Cubs are 2-7 in their last nine games following a win. Take Pittsburgh. | |||||||
07-06-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants -153 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -153 The Key: The defending champs have been struggling, but not with Bumgarner on the bump. He's been especially effective at home where the Giants are 25-10 in his last 35 starts. They are also 15-3 in his last 18 home starts versus losing clubs and 14-2 in his last 16 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. In general, the Giants have been a solid wager in this price range, going 38-15 in their last 53 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 54-20 in their last 74 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Dodgers have had their share of problems with southpaw starters and are 0-7 in their last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter. The Giants are 5-2 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts versus the Dodgers, including a perfect 2-0 at home during this span. The Dodgers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants. | |||||||
07-06-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Blowout on Blue Jays -1.5 -108 The Key: We cashed in with the Blue Jays on the run line Friday, and I'll stick with them here. The Twins are now 0-6 in their last 6 games with an average losing margin of 3.3 runs. Dickey has been dealing of late with the Jays going 4-0 in his last 4 starts. They've won these by an average of 3.5 runs. Pelfrey's road ERA is 6.92, and the Twins are 0-3 in his last 3 road starts with a 3.3-run average losing margin. Dickey's knuckler has been tough to read during the day, and his teams are 19-6 in his day starts since the beginning of last season as a result. The Twins have lost 20 of their last 26 in Toronto where the Jays are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite. They've won these 7 by 4.0 runs on average. Take Toronto on the run line. | |||||||
07-05-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 119 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Blue Jays -1.5 +119 The Key: The Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games and have lost these by an average of 3.2 runs. I expect their struggles to continue give how poorly they've performed on Friday this season. The Twins are 0-11 on Friday and have lost these contests by an average of 4.0 runs. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite and have won these by an average of 4.0 runs. Toronto also has the advantage on the mound with Buehrle. The Jays are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, winning these by 2.75 runs on average. He's given up 2 earned runs or less in each of the 4. Correia has struggled immensely on the road where he has an ERA of 5.18. Take Toronto on the run line. | |||||||
07-05-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -127 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -127 The Key: Cleveland has the edge on the mound with Justin Masterson, who's been lights out at home. The right-hander is carrying a 2.29 ERA at home on the season, and the Indians are 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. Detroit's Rick Porcello is struggling. He has an ERA of 5.26 on the road this season and is 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Tigers are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-2 in his last 2 starts in Cleveland. Masterson's overall numbers versus Detroit aren't good, but he's 3-2 on the money line in his last 5 home starts against the Tigers, holding them to 2 earned runs or less in 4 of these starts. In addition, the Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a right-handed starter and 4-0 in their last 4 series openers. Take the Tribe. | |||||||
07-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -135 v. Los Angeles Angels | 5-6 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Cardinals -135 The Key: Wainwright is flat out dealing. He's been awesome on the road where he has a 2.50 ERA. The Cardinals are 9-0 in his last nine road starts and 6-0 in his last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Blanton is having a miserable season for the Angels. The veteran right-hander is 2-10 with an ERA of 5.07. The Halos are 0-3 in his last three home starts and 0-6 in starts against winning clubs this season. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
07-04-13 | Los Angeles: C Capuano v. Colorado: J Chacin -131 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -131 The Key: After losing the first two games of this three-game set, I expect the Rockies to bounce back strong tonight. They have the edge on the mound with Chacin, who is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.26 over his last four starts. The Rockies are 5-1 in Chacin's last six home starts and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Dodgers are 3-7 in Capuano's last 10 starts. The southpaw has an ERA of 5.00 in 9 starts this season. He also has a WHIP of 1.426, which is significant because the Rockies are 10-1 on the year versus NL starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.350 to 1.450. In addition, the Dodgers are just 5-17 as a road underdog of +100 of higher this season. Take Colorado. | |||||||
07-03-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals -106 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -106 The Key: The Royals are showing terrific value at this price with Guthrie on the hill. They are 12-2 in his last 14 home starts overall and 9-0 in his last 9 home starts versus a team with a winning record. The Royals defeated Cleveland 9-0 at home earlier this season in a game where Guthrie shut the Indians down. Cleveland's Kazmir has struggled on the road where he has a 5.30 ERA in 7 starts. The Indians are 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. Kazmir, who has a career 5.09 ERA against the Royals, has a loss in Kansas City earlier this season. The Royals dropped the first game of the series but are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
07-03-13 | New York Yankees -146 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Yankees -146 The Key: We missed with the Twins yesterday, but I don't regret the play considering how good Deduno has been at home and how bad Hughes had been lately. The Yankees are clearly the play tonight, however, as Sabathia looks to notch career victory No. 200. The Yankees are 41-13 in their last 54 meetings against the Twins, and Sabathia has had his way with them. The big southpaw is 10-1 on the money line in his last 11 starts versus the Twins, including 6-0 on the money line in Minnesota during this span. Sabathia has an ERA of 1.79 in his last nine matchups with Minnesota while having his way with Justin Morneau (6 for 43), Joe Mauer (6 for 35) and Ryan Doumit (3 for 17). Minnesota's P.J. Walters is 0-3 with an ERA of 16.00 in his last 3 starts. Take the Yankees. | |||||||
07-02-13 | New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins -110 | 7-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
6* MLB Money Line Massacre on Twins -110 The Key: The Yankees have lost 5 of 6 overall, 8 of 10 on the road and 7 of 8 with Phil Hughes on the mound. They are also 0-5 in Hughes' last 5 starts in the second game of a series. The Twins, meanwhile, are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite and have won 8 of Sam Deduno's 10 career home starts. They are 3-0 in his home starts this season, during which he has posted a 1.71 ERA. The Twins are the better hitting team statistically. Plus, Deduno's ERA is 1.5 runs lower than Hughes'. Take the Twins. | |||||||
07-02-13 | Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
7* MLB Run Line Game of the Year on Braves -1.5 -107 The Key: The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven games versus Miami and have won these games by an average of 3.1 runs. I expect their dominance of the Marlins to continue with Medlen on the mound. The right-hander has dominated soft-hitting clubs like Miami. In fact, the Braves are 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the second half of the season versus NL clubs with an on-base percentage .325 or worse. They have won these games by an average of 4.1 runs. The Braves are also 12-0 all-time in Medlen's starts in the second half of the season versus poor-power teams that average 0.9 or less home runs per game. They have won these by an average of 4.7 runs. Atlanta is 6-0 lifetime in Medlen's starts against the Marlins, winning these by 2.8 runs on average. He has a 2.29 ERA in these starts. Atlanta is even 5-0 in Medlen's last 5 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater, winning these by an average of 3.6 runs. Take the Braves on the run line. | |||||||
07-01-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds -159 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Baseball *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -159 The Key: We cashed a winning ticket with the Giants yesterday, but they had the advantage of the mound with Bumgarner. They have struggled on the road all season and definitely do not have the advantage on the mound today. San Francisco rookie Mike Kickham has been lit up in his first two starts and has an 0-2 record and 10.57 ERA to show for it. His struggles figure to continue against a Cincinnati club that is 4-0 in its last 4 home games versus a left-handed starter. Bronson Arroyo has been lethal at home where the Reds have won 8 of his 10 starts this season and he's posted a 2.50 ERA. The Reds are 8-0 in Arroyo's last 8 home starts versus a team with a losing record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. Arroyo has had plenty of success against the Giants, holding them to 3 earned runs or less in each of his last nine starts. The Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog and 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Take the Reds. | |||||||
06-30-13 | San Francisco Giants -112 v. Colorado Rockies | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
6* NL *CA$H COW* on Giants -112 The Key: The defending champs are due. They haven't lost eight consecutive road games since May 12-20, 2000, and they haven't suffered a three-game sweep at Coors Field since May 24-26, 2002. It's clear San Francisco has the edge on the mound with Bumgarner. The Giants are 7-1 in his last eight starts versus the Rockies, including 4-1 in his last five starts in Colorado. Pomeranz, who is slated to make his season debut, doesn't inspire the same level of confidence. He's just 4-10 with an ERA of 5.01 in 26 career starts for the Rockies. Also, the Rockies are 0-8 all-time in his starts when the money line is +125 to -125. They have lost these by an average of 3.1 runs. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
06-30-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox -133 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
7* AL *HEAVY HITTER* on White Sox -133 The Key: The White Sox have lost the first three games of the series, but that won't keep me off them here. They are 7-1 in their last 8 games after losing the first three games of a series and are in good hands with ace Chris Sale scheduled to get the ball. Sale has been dealing at home where he has an ERA of 2.35. The Sox are 14-3 in his last 17 home starts. Cleveland's Justin Masterson, on the other hand, has struggled on the road where he has an ERA of 5.54. The Indians are 0-5 in his last 5 road starts, losing these by 5.0 runs on average. In addition, the Sox are 2-0 in Sale's two career home starts versus the Indians. Take Chicago. | |||||||
06-29-13 | Detroit Tigers -143 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -143 The Key: The Tigers have the clear edge on the mound with Justin Verlander. I expect the big righty to be very focused here after subpar performances in his last two starts. The Tigers are 57-23 in Verlander's last 80 starts as a favorite, 39-19 in his last 58 starts versus a team with a winning record and 8-3 in his last 11 starts as a road favorite. In addition, the Tigers are 9-3 all-time in Verlander's starts against the Rays. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer will be making only his 10th career start - the Rays have lost 6 of his first 9 starts. The Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 and 14-4 in their last 18 against the Rays. The Tigers are also 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take Detroit. | |||||||
06-28-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Seattle Mariners -139 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Mariners -139 The Key: The Mariners have the edge on the mound with Iwakuma, who's been lights out at home where he's sporting a 1.46 ERA this season. The Mariners are 12-3 in Iwakuma's last 15 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Cubs are a miserable 41-87 in their last 128 road games. Wood has been solid, but his 3.48 road ERA pales in comparison to Iwakuma's home ERA. Plus, the Cubs are 0-4 in Wood's last 4 starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. I like the M's here. | |||||||
06-28-13 | Kansas City Royals -133 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -133 The Key: The Twins have been a dead fade on Friday. They are 0-10 in Friday games this season and have lost them by an average score of 6.6 to 2.8. Looking back, the Twins are just 19-44 in their last 63 Friday games. Their Friday struggles figure to continue as they go up against the red-hot James Shields. He's been at his best on the road where his ERA is 2.50, and the Royals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts. Minnesota's P.J. Walters doesn't inspire as much confidence with an ERA of 4.34 at home and a 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Twins are 0-4 in Walters' last 4 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in his last 5 starts in the 2nd game of a series. Walters is also 0-2 with an ERA of 5.40 in 2 starts versus Kansas City. Shields' teams have won 5 of his last 6 starts versus the Twins. Take KC. | |||||||
06-27-13 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 126 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -1.5 +126 The Key: The Dodgers are in the midst of their longest win streak of the season. They are 5-0 in their last five games, winning these by an average of 2.4 runs. They are in great position to extend this run with Greinke on the hill. The Dodgers are 5-0 in his home starts, during which he's posted an ERA of 2.12. These wins have come by an average of 2.6 runs. Greinke's teams are a perfect 20-0 in his home starts versus losing clubs since the start of the 2011 season and have won these starts by an average score of 6.2 to 3.3. His clubs are also 14-0 in his starts as a home favorite of -175 to -250 during this span, winning these by an average score of 5.9 to 2.4. Take the Dodgers on the run line. | |||||||
06-26-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers -130 | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
6* NL *CA$H COW* on Brewers -130 The Key: The Brewers are 9-0 in their last nine home games versus the Cubs, and Gallardo is dealing. The right-hander, who has an ERA of 0.00 over his last three starts, has dominated the Cubs. Gallardo has a 2.95 ERA in 14 starts against them. The Brewers are 8-2 in his last 10 starts versus the Cubs and 6-1 all-time in his home starts versus Chicago. Chicago's Feldman has really struggled against division opponents this season, going 0-4 with an ERA of 6.65. Take Milwaukee. | |||||||
06-26-13 | Atlanta Braves -128 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Year on Braves -128 The Key: Oddsmakers have made a mistake by giving us the Braves at such an affordable price with Minor on the mound against a club that can't hit lefties. The Braves are 8-1 in Minor's last nine starts, including 4-0 in his road starts during this span. The Braves are also 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 5 days' rest. The Royals are batting just .223 off southpaw starters and are 2-11 in their last 13 games versus a left-handed starter. The Royals are also 0-6 in their last 6 interleague home games and 0-5 in Mendoza's last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Atlanta. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Steve Janus | $751 |
Chip Chirimbes | $636 |
Rocky's Lock Club | $630 |
Pure Lock | $473 |
Marc Lawrence | $380 |
Mike Lundin | $340 |
Jack Jones | $305 |
Rocky Atkinson | $291 |
Dave Price | $274 |
R&R Totals | $265 |