Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-07-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers -109 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Dodgers -109 The Key: The Dodgers are showing signs of life after promoting Yasiel Puig to the bigs. They blanked the Braves 5-0 Thursday, and I expect them to come through again tonight. Atlanta's Paul Maholm has struggled on the road where he's carrying a 5.35 ERA. He's given up at least 5 runs in 3 of his last 4 road starts. He's also just 3-7 all-time on the money line in starts versus the Dodgers, including 0-2 in road starts against them. The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a left-handed starter. L.A. is in good hands with Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Dodgers are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a favorite. He has a 1.57 home ERA on the season. Take the Dodgers. | |||||||
06-07-13 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -155 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
7* National League Game of the Month on Rockies -155 The Key: The Rockies get the call with De La Rosa on the mound. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall and 10-0 in his last 10 home starts. They are also 13-0 all-time in his home starts as a favorite of -150 to -175 and have won these by an average score of 8.2 to 3.9. In addition, Colorado is 8-0 in De La Rosa's last 8 starts versus the Padres. San Diego's Volquez is 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Rockies. Take Colorado. | |||||||
06-06-13 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -133 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rockies -133 The Key: The Rockies have had San Diego's number. They are 6-0 against the Padres this season and 5-0 in their last 5 home games against San Diego dating back to last season. Colorado's Chacin has been dominant against the Padres. He's 3-0 in his last 3 starts against them, holding them to 2 earned runs or fewer in each. He's held them to 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Take Colorado. | |||||||
06-05-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -132 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Royals -132 The Key: Jeremy Guthrie rebounded from a poor 3-start stretch with a solid performance his last time out to help the Royals earn a 4-2 win over St. Louis. I expect him to turn in another strong outing tonight given how dominant he's been against the AL Central. Guthrie is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA versus division opponents this season. The Royals are 17-5 in his last 22 starts, 10-1 in his last 11 home starts and 8-0 in his last 8 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Guthrie is also 5-2 in his last 7 starts versus the Twins. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
06-05-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Los Angeles Angels -148 | 8-6 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Angels -148 The Key: The Halos have the edge on the hill with Jason Vargas. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. Vargas is also 2-0 all-time on the money line in 2 home starts versus the Cubs. The Cubs are 2-9 in Matt Garza's last 11 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a losing record. Garza is 0-4 lifetime on the money line versus the Angels with an ERA of 5.87 in these starts. Take Los Angeles. | |||||||
06-05-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. San Francisco Giants -117 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -117 The Key: The Giants have been unstoppable at home with Barry Zito on the bump. They are 14-0 in his last 14 home starts. Plus, Zito's teams are 6-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Blue Jays. R.A. Dickey has been rocked in each of his last two starts, and the Jays are 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
06-04-13 | San Diego: C Richard v. Los Angeles: T Lilly -131 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Dodgers -131 The Key: I'm fading San Diego's Clayton Richard here. The Padres are 0-5 in his last 5 starts, and he's given up at least 5 runs in each of his last 4. The Padres are also 0-4 in Richard's last 4 road starts, and he's been tagged for at least 5 runs in each of these. The Dodgers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a left-handed starter and 5-0 in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing record. Ted Lilly has a terrific track record against the Padres. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Lilly's last 4 home starts versus the Pads, and he has held them to 2 runs or fewer in each of his last 7 starts against them. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Lilly's last 7 home starts versus a team with a losing record. Take L.A. | |||||||
06-04-13 | Oakland A's v. Milwaukee Brewers +110 | 3-4 | Win | 110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
6* MLB *TOP DOG* on Brewers +110 The Key: I'll gladly get behind Kyle Lohse, who's more proven than A.J. Griffin. Plus, Lohse's home ERA is lower than Griffin's road ERA. Lohse's teams are 24-13 all-time as a home underdog of +125 or less. The Brewers are happy to invite all right-handers to Miller Park as they are 94-48 against righty starters at home since the start of the 2011 season. The Brew Crew is 7-3 in its last 10 interleague home games versus a right-handed starter and 5-2 in its last 7 interleague games as an underdog. Bet the Beermakers. | |||||||
06-03-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Atlanta Braves -128 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -128 The Key: Pittsburgh's A.J. Burnett hasn't been a good investment in the underdog role. In fact, the Pirates are 3-8 in Burnett's last 11 starts as an underdog, including 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. We also can't ignore how much Pittsburgh has struggled in series openers. The Pirates are 16-35 in their last 51 series openers and 2-8 in Burnett's last 10 starts in the first game of a series. The Braves, on the other hand, are 14-4 in their last 18 Game 1's and 9-0 in Kris Medlen's last 9 series-opening starts. The Braves are 15-4 in Medlen's last 19 home starts and 22-6 in his last 28 starts as a favorite. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is 4-0 in its last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Bet the Braves. | |||||||
06-02-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies -132 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
6* MLB Late Afternoon Annihilator on Rockies -132 The Key: De La Rosa doesn't have a good track record against the Dodgers, but I can't ignore how good he's been at home in recent years. He hasn't faced the Dodgers at Coors Field since 2009, and I expect L.A. to be in for a rude awakening. The Rockies are a ridiculous 28-4 in De La Rosa's last 32 home starts, including a perfect 9-0 in his last 9 dating back to the start of the 2011 season. The Rockies have won these 9 by an average score of 7.4 to 3.6. The Dodgers are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a road underdog, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a left-handed starter and 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Colorado. Take the Rockies. | |||||||
06-02-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks -140 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Diamondbacks -140 The Key: The D-backs have the edge on the mound with southpaw Pat Corbin. The Rockies are 10-0 in his starts this season, during which he's posted an ERA of 1.71. He should have plenty of success against a Chicago lineup that has a terrible .264 on-base percentage against lefty starters. Chicago's Edwin Jackson has struggled, especially at home. The Cubs are 0-5 in his home starts this season, during which he's posted an ERA of 7.81. Take Arizona. | |||||||
06-01-13 | Detroit Tigers -134 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -134 The Key: The Tigers have the edge on the mound with Verlander, who has dominated Baltimore throughout his career. He's 7-0 (10-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.85 in 11 career starts versus the Orioles. The Tigers are 6-0 all-time in his road starts versus Baltimore, winning these by an average of 3.5 runs. The Orioles have done well with Hammel on the hill, but his 6.37 home ERA throws up a big red flag. Take the Tigers. | |||||||
06-01-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Minnesota Twins -123 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Annihilator on Twins -123 The Key: The Twins have the edge on the mound with Correia. They are 4-1 in his 5 home starts, during which he's posted a 2.50 ERA. Seattle's Harang has struggled on the road where he's 0-3 with a 10.67 ERA in 3 starts. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 games in the underdog role, and they're also 0-4 in their last 4 Game 2s of a series. Take the Twins early. | |||||||
05-31-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Philadelphia Phillies -125 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* of the Week on Phillies -125 The Key: It's been a rough start to the season for Hamels, but he's been better than his record indicates. I expect a gem out of him tonight against the struggling Brewers. The Brewers are 5-22 in their last 27 overall, including 0-6 in their last 6 games. Milwaukee has really struggled against southpaw starters this year. It is just 4-18 against them on the season, including 0-7 in its last 7 on the road against lefty starters. Hamels is 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the Brewers. Gallardo is typically never as good on the road, and the Brewers are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. The Brewers are 3-9 in the last 12 meetings and 11-30 in the last 41 meetings in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. | |||||||
05-30-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants +101 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants +101 The Key: The Athletics have taken the first 3 games of this home-and-home four-game series, but that won't keep me off the defending World Series champs here. After all, the Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 3 games of a series. Former Oakland ace Barry Zito has a 1.38 ERA at home this season, and the Giants are 13-0 in his last 13 home starts dating back to last season. The Giants are 6-0 in his last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. Zito is also 2-0 in his last 2 home starts versus the A's. Oakland's A.J. Griffin has an ERA of 4.31 on the road this season, and the Athletics are 2-11 in the last 13 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-29-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants -123 | 9-6 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
6* MLB Battle on the Bay Bailout on Giants -123 The Key: The reigning World Series champs lost both in Oakland, but I expect them to regroup at home where they have won 35 of their last 52. Also, keep in mind that they are 11-1 in their last 12 home games against the A's. I trust Lincecum more at home, where he's 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA, than I trust Milone on the road, where he's 1-3 with a 5.28 ERA. Plus, Lincecum has a good track record against the A's. The Giants are 6-2 in his last 8 starts against them, and he has limited them to 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of these starts. Also, the former two-time NL Cy Young winner is 5-0 on the money line in his last 5 starts when getting the ball on regular rest. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-29-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -133 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Indians -133 The Key: The Indians lost both games in Cincinnati, but I expect them to bounce back strong at home where they have won 13 of their last 17 overall. They are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games and 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus the Reds. Justin Masterson is having a sensational season, and he's been lights out at home lately. The Indians are 4-0 in his last 4 home starts, and he's given up no runs in his last 2 home starts spanning 16 innings. Masterson is also 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Reds, holding them to 1 earned run in 17 innings during this stretch. Cincy's Bronson Arroyo hasn't been as sharp on the road where he's 1-3. He's also had his share of struggles against the Tribe, going 0-3 with a 11.20 ERA in his last three 3 starts against them. Take the Indians on the money line. | |||||||
05-28-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +116 v. Boston Red Sox | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MLB Top Dog on Phillies +116 The Key: The Phillies are showing value at this price considering the edge they have on the mound with Cliff Lee. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, during which he has allowed a total of 4 runs in 31 innings. The Phillies are 5-0 in Lee's last 5 starts as an underdog. Boston's Ryan Dempster, on the other hand, has been struggling. He's given up 19 runs in his last 4 starts spanning 19 2-3 innings. The Red Sox are 0-3 in his last 3 home starts. Take the Phillies. | |||||||
05-28-13 | Miami Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Rays -1.5 -106 The Key: The Marlins are 0-6 in their last 6 games and have lost these by an average of 2.5 runs. They are also 0-6 in their last 6 road games, losing these by an average of 2.7 runs. Miami is 0-3 in Kevin Slowey's last 3 starts. These losses came by an average of 5.3 runs, which isn't hard to believe considering Slowey posted an 8.52 ERA during this stretch. Jeremy Hellickson has struggled but enters with confidence following his best start of the season. Besides, the Rays have won 5 of his last 6 home starts dating back to last season. The Marlins are 9-24 in the last 33 meetings and 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line. | |||||||
05-27-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox -116 | 7-0 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on White Sox -116 The Key: The Cubs pulled out a win yesterday to end a 6-game skid but are 10-26 in their last 36 games following a win. They are 11-25 in their last 36 interleague road games and 3-8 in their last 11 meetings with the White Sox. Samardzija has pitched well but has suffered from a lack of run support. Plus, he's been hit hard in 3 of his last 5 road starts, and the Cubs are 0-5 in those starts. The White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 interleague home games. They are in good hands with Quintana on the mound considering the Cubs just 4-10 against southpaw starters this season. Quintana is working off a game, and the White Sox are 12-1 in his last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take the South Siders. | |||||||
05-26-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -121 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -121 The Key: The Brewers are showing value at home at this price given the dominance Gallardo has displayed against the Pirates. The right-hander is 10-2 (14-2 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.31 in 16 career starts versus Pittsburgh. Also, the Brewers are 9-0 all-time in Gallardo's home starts versus the Pirates. Wandy Rodriguez is 1-3 on the money line in his last 4 starts versus the Brewers. He's also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 and 2-10 on the money line in his last 12 starts at Milwaukee. The Pirates are 8-45 in the last 53 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Brew Crew. | |||||||
05-25-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -123 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -123 The Key: I'm backing Barry Zito at home where he has been lights out. The Giants are 5-0 in Zito's home starts this season, during which he has posted an ERA of 0.55. Dating back to last season, the Giants are 12-0 in his last 12 home starts. Zito was rocked in Colorado in his most recent start, but he normally gets the best of the Rockies. The Giants are 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus Rockies. They are also 7-1 in his last 8 home starts versus the Rockies, including a perfect 3-0 in his last 3. The Rockies are only 6-20 in the last 26 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-24-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -104 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
7* NL Central Game of the Month on Brewers -104 The Key: The Brewers are 44-7 in their last 51 at home versus the Pirates, and I expect them to continue their home dominance against their NL Central rivals tonight. Milwaukee's Marco Estrada has owned Pittsburgh, as evidenced by the fact he has a 2.47 ERA in 7 starts against the Bucs. The Brewers are 4-0 in Estrada's last 4 starts versus Pirates, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog, 6-0 in his last 6 series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 5 days' rest. A.J. Burnett hasn't had much luck against the Brew Crew, as evidenced by his 4.87 ERA in 10 starts against them. The Pirates are 0-4 in Burnett's last 4 starts versus the Brewers and 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Beermakers. | |||||||
05-23-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Royals -130 The Key: I'm fading Joe Blanton here. The right-hander has a 6.62 ERA on the season and an 8.04 ERA over his last three starts. The Angels are 0-4 this season in his road starts, 0-7 in his night starts and 0-4 in his series-opening starts. He is also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus Kansas City. He was tagged for 7 earned runs in 4 2-3 innings of an 11-4 loss to the Royals May 13. Former Angel Ervin Santana has an ERA of 2.77, and that number is down to 1.84 at home. His knowledge of the L.A. hitters should play to his benefit. The Angels are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
05-22-13 | Boston Red Sox -126 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -126 The Key: The Red Sox have the edge on the mound with Buchholz, who is 6-0 with a 1.78 ERA in 9 starts, including 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 3 road starts. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 26-5 in Buchholz's last 31 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus a team with a losing record. It is also significant that Buchholz has a WHIP of just 1.035 given the White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 games versus a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The White Sox are 0-3 in Santiago's last 3 starts. Bet Bean Town. | |||||||
05-22-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -128 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
6* MLB Afternoon Annihilator on Rockies -128 The Key: The Rockies are in great hands with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound. They are an awesome 27-4 in his last 31 home starts. It is also worth noting that they have never lost to the Diamondbacks at Coors Field with De La Rosa on the bump. They are 8-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Diamondbacks. De La Rosa has a 2.41 ERA in 14 career starts versus Arizona while Cahill has a 4.87 ERA in 7 starts versus the Rockies. Cahill has lost his last 2 starts in Colorado and 3 of his last 4 overall against the Rockies. | |||||||
05-21-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -140 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -140 The Key: The Cards have the edge on the mound with Wainwright, who's 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA. Compare that to San Diego's Volquez, who's 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA. Wainwright has also been lights out against the Padres, going 3-2 with a 0.97 ERA in 5 career starts. Volquez is 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA in 9 starts against St. Louis. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 road starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a road favorite. The Padres are 3-7 in Volquez's last 10 starts, and he's 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 versus the Cards. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
05-20-13 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants -135 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -135 The Key: The Giants are happy to be home after losing the last three of a four-game series in Colorado. They are 20-7 in their last 27 home games and 12-3 in their last 15 home games versus a team with a winning record. Ryan Vogelsong has struggled, but I expect his best outing of the season tonight. The Nationals are hitting just .224 on the road, and he knows he needs a quality start if he wants to remain in the rotation. The Giants are 14-5 in Vogelsong's last 19 home starts and 5-1 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a winning record. Washington's Zach Duke hasn't started since July 10, 2011 and he's been hit hard in two appearances this season. He gave up three runs in three innings of an 8-1 loss to Atlanta on April 30 and allowed four runs in two-thirds of inning as Washington fell 8-2 to the Chicago Cubs on May 11. Duke's clubs are 9-32 all-time in his starts as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Take the Giants. | |||||||
05-19-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles +101 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Annihilator on Orioles +101 The Key: The Orioles have lost the first two games of this series and will be extremely hungry and focused as a result. They are 5-0 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Baltimore is in good hands with Chris Tillman, who has a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Orioles are 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts versus a team with a winning record. It is also worth noting that they are 6-1 in Tillman's last 7 starts as an underdog. Moore is off to a strong start for Tampa Bay and has a win in Baltimore this season. However, he had lost his previous two starts in Baltimore, and the Rays are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite. Take the Orioles. | |||||||
05-18-13 | Seattle: J Saunders v. Cleveland: Mcallister -155 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
6* MLB Early Blowout on Indians -155 The Key: The Indians have won 15 of their last 19 and find themselves in good hands with Zach McAllister stepping to the mound. The Tribe is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, and he's posted a 1.74 ERA during this span. The Mariners have struggled against righty starters this season and are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against them. The Indians, on the other hand, are 5-1 in their last 6 games versus a left-handed starter and should be able to get to Joe Saunders. The southpaw is 0-4 with an ERA of 12.53 on the road this season. These 4 losses came by an average of 6.5 runs. Saunders is also 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 starts versus Cleveland. Take the Tribe. | |||||||
05-17-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles -115 | 12-10 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Money Line Massacre on Orioles -115 The Key: The Orioles are a good buy here as they are 10-4 in their last 14 games against the Rays. They are also 6-1 in their last 7 home games versus Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson has been hit hard over his last 4 starts. Plus, the Rays are 0-8 in Hellickson's last 8 road starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 6-0 in Jason Hammel's last 6 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take Baltimore. | |||||||
05-17-13 | Houston Astros v. Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Pirates -1.5 +100 The Key: The Pirates have owned the Astros. They've won 12 of the last 16 meetings overall and 16 of the last 21 at home. Plus, they've never lost to Houston when facing Jordan Lyles. They are 5-0 against the 'stros when Lyles gets the start. Lyles has a 7.77 ERA in these 5 starts. It's also worth noting that the Astros are 0-9 in Lyles' last 9 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 0-7 in his last 7 interleague starts. Take Pittsburgh on the run line. | |||||||
05-16-13 | Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Yankees -163 The Key: The Yankees have an advantage on the mound that's worth paying the juice for. New York's Andy Pettitte is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA while Seattle's Aaron Harang is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA. It is also worth noting that Pettitte has given up 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts against Seattle. The Yankees are 70-25 in Pettitte's last 95 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 45-10 in his last 55 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Mariners are 33-92 in their last 125 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. Take the Yanks. | |||||||
05-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -118 | 9-2 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
6* Wednesday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Rays -118 The Key: The Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 games, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against the Red Sox, who are 0-4 in their last 4 road games and 4-22 in their last 26 road games versus clubs that have a winning record. Boston is hitting just .249 and scoring only 3.9 runs per game off left-handed starters this season and is 0-5 in its last 5 games versus a left-handed starter as a result. It will have its work cut out for itself against David Price, who is 8-4 lifetime with a 2.99 ERA versus the Red Sox. The Rays are 3-0 in his last 3 home starts versus Boston. While Boston has struggled against southpaw starters, Tampa Bay has flourished. It's hitting them at a .273 clip and averaging 5.3 runs per game against them. The Rays have had their share of success against Jon Lester lately. He's 1-4 on the money line in his last 5 starts against them. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
05-14-13 | San Diego Padres v. Baltimore Orioles -132 | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Orioles -132 The Key: The Orioles have the edge on the mound with Chris Tillman. They are 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he's posted a 2.03 ERA during this span. The Orioles are also 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts series-opening starts. San Diego's Andrew Cashner is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 2 road starts this season. Plus, the Padres have struggled on the road in general. They are 0-6 in their last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 0-4 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter. Bet Baltimore. | |||||||
05-13-13 | New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 119 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -1.5 +119 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Lynn, who has a 2.72 ERA on the season and a 1.35 ERA at home. The Cards are 6-0 in his last 6 regular-season home starts and have won these by 4.33 runs on average. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. New York's Hefner has an ERA of 4.24 and that number balloons to 5.73 on the road. The Mets are 0-6 in his last 6 starts, losing these by 2.0 runs on average. The Mets are batting just .233 against righty starters this season and are 0-7 in their last 7 games versus a right-handed starter. The Cards are hitting .272 against righty starters and are 9-0 in their last 9 games versus them. The Mets are only 3-9 in the last 12 meetings in St. Louis. Take the Cards on the run line. | |||||||
05-12-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Chicago White Sox -118 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on White Sox -118 The Key: The Angels have won the first two games of this series but are still just 6-13 in their last 19 road games and 4-9 in their last 13 in the third game of a series. The White Sox have won 4 of their last 5 Game 3's and find themselves in good hands with Chris Sale toeing the rubber. The White Sox are 13-3 in Sale's last 16 home starts, including a perfect 3-0 this season. He has an ERA of just 2.08 in those 3 wins. The Sox are also 4-0 in his last 4 home starts versus teams with a losing record and 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus the American League West. C.J. Wilson has pitched well for the Angels but hasn't been as sharp as Sale. His road ERA (3.75) is nearly 2 runs higher than Sale's home ERA. The Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the South Siders. | |||||||
05-12-13 | Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Nationals -1.5 +128 The Key: The Cubs won yesterday but had lost 5 straight to Washington by an average of 5.2 runs prior. Gio Gonzalez has been the NL Central's worst nightmare. The Nationals are 13-1 in his 14 starts against the NL Central and have won these by an average score of 6.6 to 3.2. They have won both of his starts against the Cubs by 3 and 8 runs. It's also noting that Washington is 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200, winning these by an average of 4.75 runs. The Cubs are 8-23 in their last 31 games following a win, 14-42 in their last 56 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and 3-9 in their last 12 games versus a left-handed starter. Take Washington on the run line. | |||||||
05-11-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. New York Mets -111 | 11-2 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Mets -111 The Key: Today's the day to get behind Jon Niese as the Mets are 12-2 all-time in his Saturday starts. The Mets most definitely have the edge on the mound with Niese, who has an ERA of 2.08 in 4 home starts. The Mets are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 12-25 in their last 37 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog, and sending Francisco Liriano to the mound doesn't do anything to gain my confidence. The left-hander is carrying a 4.15 ERA over five minor league starts. The Mets have won 6 of their last 8 against the Pirates, and I like them here. Bet the Mets. | |||||||
05-10-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -141 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Reds -141 The Key: The Brewers are struggling. They lost 6 of 7 to conclude a lengthy home stand, and now they head to Cincinnati where they haven't made much luck. The Reds are 7-2 in their last 9 and 20-7 in their last 27 at home versus the Brewers. Gallardo is the more proven pitcher in this matchup, but I believe he is overmatched here considering his struggles on the road and poor track record against the Reds. The right-hander owns a 6.00 road ERA compared to a 3.90 home mark. He dropped both 2012 starts at Cincinnati with a 4.63 ERA. The Brewers are 3-8 in Gallardo's last 11 starts versus the Reds and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts versus them. They are also 7-20 in his last 27 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is just 4-7 against southpaw starters and will have its work cut out for itself against Cingrani. Cincy has won 3 of his 4 starts while he's posted a 2.62 ERA. Milwaukee's lack of familiarity with Cingrani will be to his benefit. Bet the Reds. | |||||||
05-10-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 4-10 | Win | 115 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Tigers -1.5 +115 The Key: The Indians have been rolling, but I expect them to cool off in Detroit where they are 8-28 since the start of 2009. The Tigers are 4-0 in Max Scherzer's last 4 starts, winning these by an average of 4.75 runs. They are also 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200, winning these by an average of 4.57 runs. The Tigers are 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 starts versus the Indians with each of the wins coming by at least 2 runs. The Indians are 4-10 in Corey Kluber's 14 starts. These losses have come by an average of 4.3 runs and include 0-4 loss in his most recent start against Detroit. Take the Tigers on the run line. | |||||||
05-09-13 | New York Yankees -119 v. Colorado Rockies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Yankees -119 The Key: The Yankees have the edge on the mound with CC Sabathia. He has been tough as nails in interleague action. The Yankees are 10-1 in his 11 interleague starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.40. He is also 4-0 on the money line in his last 4 starts versus Colorado. The Yankees are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Rockies have struggled against the AL, even at home where they are 5-16 in their last 21 interleague games. Having Jeff Francis on the hill doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. He's carrying a 7.27 ERA on the season. The Rockies are 0-4 in Francis' last 4 starts as a home underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Yankees. | |||||||
05-08-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | 4-10 | Win | 119 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -1.5 +119 The Key: The Rays have lost the first two games of the series, but I expect them to bounce back strong tonight with Matt Moore on the mound. The southpaw is 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA on the season. He's 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA at home. Dating back to last season, the Rays are 8-0 in his last 8 starts and have won these by an average of 4.4 runs with all of them coming by at least 2 runs. The Rays are also 3-0 all-time in Moore's home starts against Toronto. These wins have come by an average of 5 runs with each coming by at least 3 runs. The Blue Jays are just 3-15 in Ricky Romero's last 18 starts and have lost his last 2 starts versus Tampa Bay. Take the Rays on the run line. | |||||||
05-08-13 | Oakland: A Griffin +105 v. Cleveland: Masterson | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Top Dog* on A's +105 The Key: The A's represent the strongest underdog on the board today. They've lost the first two games of the series but are still 8-2 in their last 10 versus Cleveland. Justin Masterson has been hit hard in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 13 innings. Also, he hasn't had much luck against Oakland. He's 1-5 with an ERA of 10.36 in 6 starts versus the A's. He was 0-3 against them last season, giving up 19 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings. The Athletics are 17-5 in Griffin's last 22 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 starts as an underdog. Take the A's. | |||||||
05-07-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -130 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -130 The Key: The Cardinals have never lost to the Cubs when Lance Lynn gets the start, going 4-0 with an average winning margin of 4.5 runs. Lynn has an ERA of 2.96 in these starts. Lynn is working off 3 consecutive gems, which bodes well for us since the Cards are 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The Cardinals are also 7-0 in his last 7 series-opening and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. It is also worth noting that the Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Chicago's Travis Wood has pitched well this season, but he doesn't have a good track record against the Cardinals. Fading the Cubs against the Cardinals with Wood on the mound has never lost as the Cubs are 0-3 in his starts against St. Louis. He's given up 18 runs in 16 innings in those starts. The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 home starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-8 in his last 8 starts as a home underdog. Take St. Louis. | |||||||
05-06-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -138 | 8-7 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -138 The Key: The Blue Jays ended a 4-game skid yesterday but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. The Jays are also 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Tampa Bay won last year's series 14-4, and Toronto is just 12-39 in its last 51 at Tampa Bay. Veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle is struggling. The Blue Jays are 0-3 in his last 3 starts, during which he has an ERA of 5.68. The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 home games versus a left-handed starter, 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 5-0 in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Rays are 4-0 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 4 starts at home where he has an ERA of 3.38 this year. He also has a 2.89 ERA against the Blue Jays while Buehrle has a 4.33 ERA against Tampa Bay. Take the Rays. | |||||||
05-06-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Boston Red Sox -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Red Sox -1.5 +102 The Key: The Red Sox will be hungry tonight after getting swept at Texas. They are in great hands with Clay Buchholz getting the ball. He's 6-0 with an ERA of 1.01 in 6 starts, and the Sox have won these by an average of 4.2 runs. Boston is an impressive 17-3 since the start of last season with Buchholz on the hill as a favorite of -110 or higher. It has won these contests by an average score of 6.2 to 3.5. The Red Sox are also 5-0 in their last 5 at home, winning these by 3.8 runs on average. Minnesota's Vance Worley is 0-4 (2-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.22 in 6 starts. Bet Bean Town on the run line. | |||||||
05-05-13 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Houston Astros | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Tigers -1.5 -161 The Key: Philip Humber is 0-6 with an ERA of 7.58 on the season. These 6 defeats have come by an average of 5.2 runs and all of them came by at least 3 runs. Humber is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in 2 starts versus Detroit. It is also worth noting that his teams are 0-10 with him on the mound when the total is 8 to 8.5 since the start of last season. They have lost by an average of 5.3 runs in these spots. Justin Verlander is coming off a gem and just enjoyed the best April of his career. He has a 1.83 ERA in all starts, and that number is down to 1.50 on the road. The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -201 or greater and 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts as a road favorite of -201 or greater. Take the Tigers on the run line. | |||||||
05-05-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Toronto Blue Jays -155 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Week on Blue Jays -155 The Key: The Mariners have won the first two games of this series but are still 3-7 in their last 10 road games, 2-7 in their last 9 road games versus a right-handed starter, 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 5-12 in their last 17 in the third game of a series. They will have a very tough time pulling off the sweep with Joe Saunders on the bump. He's 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA in 3 road starts. The Blue Jays are in better hands with Brandon Morrow. He has given up 3 earned runs or fewer in 4 of his first 6 starts, and Toronto is 2-0 in his last 2 starts with wins over Baltimore and Boston. Morrow is also 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA versus Seattle while Saunders is 2-5 on the money line in his last 7 starts versus the Jays. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Morrow's last 5 starts versus a team with a losing record and 17-5 in his last 22 starts in the third game of a series. Bet the Blue Jays. | |||||||
05-04-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -125 v. Colorado Rockies | 3-9 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Rays -125 The Key: The Rockies have struggled in interleague play, and they've struggled against southpaw starters. The Rockies are 6-20 in their last 26 interleague games and 3-14 in their last 17 interleague home games. They are even 0-12 since the start of interleague play last season versus AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse and have lost to these teams by an average score of 7.5 to 3.5. They are also 0-8 in their last 8 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 18-42 in their last 60 games versus a left-handed starter, 11-25 in their last 36 home games versus a lefty starter and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games versus a southpaw starter. I expect their struggles against lefties to continue with Tampa Bay ace David Price stepping to the mound. He's had a couple rough outings in his first 6 starts but appears to have found his groove with back-to-back solid performance against the Yankees and White Sox. The Rays are 37-17 in Price's last 54 road starts, 27-9 in his last 36 starts as a road favorite and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The biggest reason Colorado has struggled so much in interleague play is its pitching, and I don't see Jon Garland outdueling Price. Garland has been hit hard in his last 2 starts, giving up 10 runs on 18 hits in 12 innings. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
05-02-13 | Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Phillies -1.5 +115 The Key: Philadelphia's Kyle Kendrick is dealing. They have won each of his last 2 and 3 of his last 4 starts, during which he has given up only 4 runs in 28 innings. Miami has lost each of Alex Sanabia's last 2 starts and 3 of his last 4, during which he has allowed 16 runs in 23 2/3 innings. Kendrick has a strong track record against Miami. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the Marlins with 3 of these wins coming by 2 runs. He's given up just 4 runs in 24 1/3 innings spanning these starts. The Phillies are also 5-0 in his last 5 home starts versus Miami. All 5 of these wins have come by at least 2 runs. The Phillies also swept the Marlins in a 3-game series the last time they visited, winning all 3 by 2 runs. Take Philly on the run line. | |||||||
05-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -113 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Cardinals -113 The Key: The Reds have lost 9 of their last 11 on the road, and their road struggles should continue with Homer Bailey on the hill. He's 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in a pair of road starts this season. The Reds are also 0-6 all-time in his road starts versus the Cardinals and have lost them by an average of 3.5 runs. He has a 6.93 ERA in these starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in Lance Lynn's last 4 starts, and 2-0 in his home starts on the season. He has a 1.38 ERA in the 2 home starts. The Cardinals are also 2-0 in his starts versus the Reds. The Cards have won 27 of Lynn's last 37 starts, including 17 of his last 18 against NL Central foes. Take the Cards. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -135 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Bailout Blowout* on Dodgers -135 The Key: Jorge De La Rose is not the same pitcher on the road where the Rockies are 2-7 in is last 9 starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. He's 0-9 on the money line in 9 career starts versus the Dodgers with a 6.05 ERA. These losses have come by an average of 4.0 runs. The Rockies have lost 4 of their last 5 in L.A. and figure to have trouble with southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Rockies are 18-40 in their last 58 games versus a left-handed starter and 7-21 in their last 28 road games versus a left-handed starter. Take the Dodgers. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Kansas City Royals -122 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Royals -122 The Key: The Rays have lost 7 of their last 10 on the road where they are hitting just .225. I don't see them making much solid contact tonight against James Shields, who has a 3.09 ERA. He has had plenty of time to study the Tampa Bay hitters while spending 7 seasons there. The Rays have a good scouting report on him as well, but the edge goes to the pitcher when facing a batter for the first time. Plus, Shields has had plenty of success against guys he has faced like Shelley Duncan, Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson and Jose Molina. The Rays are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 1-5 in their last 6 meetings in Kansas City. Alex Cobb has been good for Tampa Bay but was hit hard while losing his lone road start this season. He was also tagged for 8 runs in an 8-0 loss in Kansas City last season. Take the Royals. | |||||||
04-30-13 | Houston Astros v. New York Yankees -1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Yankees -1.5 -129 The Key: The Astros are 0-5 in Philip Humber's first five starts and have lost these by an average of 5.6 runs. All 5 losses came by at least 3 runs. The Yankees are 4-0 in Hiroki Kuroda's last 4 starts. These wins came by an average of 3.0 runs with all 4 coming by at least 2.0 runs. Kuroda's teams are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus the Astros with these wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Take the Yankees on the run line. | |||||||
04-29-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals -140 | 9-0 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Royals -140 The Key: The Indians find themselves at a disadvantage with Ubaldo Jimenez heading to the mound. He's carrying a 10.06 ERA in 4 starts this season, and this number is up to 14.73 over his last 3 starts. Jimenez has also had his troubles against the Royals. He has an ERA of 5.64 in 4 career starts against them, and is 0-2 in his last 2 starts against them. The Indians are 3-9 in Jimenez's last 12 starts, 2-10 in his last 12 road starts, 4-17 in his last 21 starts as a road underdog, 0-6 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record and 0-5 in his last 5 Monday starts. The Royals lost the second game of yesterday's double header but are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. They are in good hands with Wade Davis getting the pill. They've won 3 of his 4 starts while he's posted an ERA of 3.20. Davis loves pitching in front of the home fans. His teams are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts. He's also 2-0 with an ERA of 2.70 in a pair of starts versus Cleveland. The Indians are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings and 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Kansas City. Take the Royals. | |||||||
04-28-13 | San Francisco Giants -117 v. San Diego Padres | 4-6 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
6* MLB Super System Smoker on Giants -117 The Key: Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 5.68, and the Giants have hit just 15 home runs on the season, but that won't keep me off the defending champs here. Consider that NL teams with a money line of +100 to -150 that average 0.9 homers or less on the season with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 are 44-15 the last 5 seasons. Vogelsong has struggled early this season following a brilliant finish to last season, but I expect his struggles to come to an end here. He has won his last 2 starts versus San Diego while holding the Padres to 1 earned run. The Giants are 6-1 in Vogelsong's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Padres have lost both of Jason Marquis' starts at home where he has an elevated 8.38 ERA. He has also lost 2 of his last 3 starts versus the Giants. San Diego is a soft 3-13 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Giants are 26-11 in the last 37 meetings. Take SF. | |||||||
04-28-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -134 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Diamondbacks -134 The Key: The Rockies are 9-21 in their last 30 road games, 11-42 in their last 53 Sunday games and 7-17 in the last 24 meetings in Arizona. All of these negative streaks should be extended with southpaw Pat Corbin stepping to the hill for the D-backs. The Snakes are 5-0 in his last 5 starts, and he's posted an ERA of just 1.71 in 4 starts this season. Colorado has been at its worst against left-handed starters. In fact, it is 6-20 in its last 26 road games versus a left-handed starter. The D-backs are also 2-0 in Corbin's last 2 starts versus Colorado. The Rockies have won 3 of Jon Garland's 4 starts, but he has benefited from solid run support, something he doesn't figure to get today. He is carrying a 5.21 ERA over his last 3 starts. Take the Snakes. | |||||||
04-27-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -136 | 7-3 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -136 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, I expect the A's to come storming back in the third game of this 4-game set. A.J. Griffin has been lights out for the A's since getting the call up last season. They have won 15 of his last 18 starts overall and 10 of his last 11 at home. Even more importantly, they are 7-0 all-time in his home starts versus teams that have a winning record. It's also worth noting that the Athletics are 6-0 in Griffin's last 6 starts as a favorite. Take the A's. | |||||||
04-26-13 | Atlanta Braves +122 v. Detroit Tigers | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Interleague *CA$H COW* on Braves +122 The Key: The Braves have never lost under manager Fredi Gonzalez versus AL teams who send a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better to the mound. They are 7-0 versus these clubs. This trend says a lot about the kind of hitters Atlanta has. The Braves should have no trouble hitting Anibal Sanchez. His teams are 0-7 in his last 7 starts versus Atlanta, and he has been shelled in 3 of his last 4 starts versus the Braves. If Atlanta knocks out Sanchez early, then it can wreak havoc on a Detroit bullpen that carries a 4.86 ERA. The Braves are 7-0 this season versus teams with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 5.1 to 1.1. Atlanta's pen owns an MLB-best 1.60 ERA. Atlanta's starter, Paul Maholm, is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA, and should have plenty of success versus a Detroit club that is just 1-3 versus lefty starters this season while hitting only .248. Maholm has given up no more than 2 runs in 3 career starts versus Detroit. The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 series openers and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games. Bet the Braves. | |||||||
04-25-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Washington Nationals -133 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Nationals -133 The Key: Washington has lost its last 4 overall and 6 straight at home so it will show up hungry and focused this evening. It will have an excellent opportunity to end these skids against a Cincinnati club that is 0-5 in its last 5 road games. Those five defeats came by an average of 4.0 runs as the bats and bullpen were bad. Gio Gonzalez has been roughed up in his last 2 starts after a couple gems to start the season, and he'll be very focused as a result. He's been awesome against Cincinnati, going 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA in 3 career starts. The Nats won both of his starts versus the Reds last season. The Nationals are 28-10 in Gonzalez's last 38 starts, 11-1 in his last 12 starts versus the NL Central and 4-0 in his last 4 series-opening starts. The Reds have lost 3 of Bronson Arroyo's last 4 starts versus the Nationals. They've also lost 3 of his last 4 starts at Washington. The Reds are 1-6 in his last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Reds have also lost 4 of their last 4 in Washington. Take the Nationals. | |||||||
04-24-13 | Milwaukee: M Estrada -114 v. San Diego: E Volquez | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Brewers -114 The Key: The Brewers are on fire. They are 9-0 in their last 9 games. The Padres are ice cold. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games overall and 0-7 in their last 7 at home. Milwaukee is 6-0 in its last 6 games as a road favorite and 6-0 in its last 6 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. San Diego's Edinson Volquez has a WHIP of 2.128 and an ERA of 8.84 on the season. The Padres are 0-5 in his last 5 starts. Volquez has also struggled against the Brewers. He has given up 5 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts against them, and he has allowed at least 4 earned in 7 of his last 9 starts against them. The Brewers are 3-0 in Marco Estrada's last 3 starts. They are also 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take Milwaukee on the money line. | |||||||
04-23-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. New York Mets +1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
6* MLB Line Mistake on Mets +1.5 (-133) The Key: Oddsmakers have made a mistake giving us the Mets +1.5 at an affordable price. The Dodgers are struggling, having lost 6 of their last 7. They have won by more than 1 run just 5 times in 18 games this season. The Mets, meanwhile, have won or lost by a single run in 12 of 17 games. The Dodgers have lost or won by 1 run in 7 of 9 road games this season while the Mets have won or lost by a single run in 8 of 9 home games. Clayton Kershaw is a fantastic starter, but hasn't had ace stuff in his last 2 starts and the Dodgers lost both as a result. They won his start prior to those two but only by 1 run. The Mets are 6-1 in Jon Niese's last 7 starts. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 5-0 in his last 5 series-opening starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts on regular rest (4 days). The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a favorite and 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Kershaw has a good track record against the Dodgers, but he likely won't get much run support with as well as Niese has been dealing. LA is scoring just 2.5 runs per game off southpaw starters this season. Keep in mind the Mets are scoring 5.0 runs per game off lefty starters. Bet the Mets on the run line. | |||||||
04-23-13 | Toronto: R Dickey -108 v. Baltimore: M Gonzalez | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Blue Jays -108 The Key: The Blue Jays are showing value at this price with the reigning NL Cy Young winner on the hill. R.A. Dickey got off to a slow start but has since settled in winning his last 2 starts while giving up only 1 run in 12 1/3 innings. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez hasn't been nearly as sharp, giving up 8 runs in his last 2 starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. Dickey delivered a complete-game 1-hit shutout when he faced Baltimore last season. Dickey also shut down the O's when he saw them in 2010, giving up just 1 run in 7 innings. Gonzalez has an ERA of 4.73 in 2 career starts versus Toronto, giving up 7 runs in 13 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays went down yesterday but are 11-4 in their last 15 games following a loss. The Orioles are 5-11 in their last 16 games following a win. Take Toronto. | |||||||
04-22-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. San Diego Padres +111 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Padres +111 The Key: The Brewers have won 7 in a row, but don't expect their winning ways to continue out on the road where they are 2-3 and scoring only 2.8 runs per game. The Padres have struggled at home in the early going, but they are typically a solid home club (42-39 at home last season). Besides, the Brewers are 3-14 in their last 17 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400 and 6-14 in the last 20 meetings in San Diego. The Padres are 20-8 in their last 28 home games versus a team with a losing road record, 12-3 in their last 15 versus the National League Central and 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Padres at a nice price. | |||||||
04-21-13 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Major Mismatch* on Braves -1.5 -107 The Key: The Braves have the clear advantage with Medlen on the mound. They are 25-2 in his last 27 starts. He's carrying a 1.42 ERA through his first three starts while Pittsburgh's Sanchez has a 12.97 through his first two. The Braves are 12-0 in Medlen's last 12 road starts and have won these by an average of 3.33 runs. Sanchez's clubs, on the other hand, are 0-10 in his last 10 starts and have lost them by an average of 4.8 runs. It is also worth noting that the Braves are 12-0 in Medlen's last 12 starts versus NL teams with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse. They have defeated these teams by an average of 3.9 runs. Lastly, the Braves are 13-0 in Medlen's last 13 starts when the total is 7 to 8.5 and have won these by an average of 4.0 runs. Take Atlanta on the run line. | |||||||
04-21-13 | New York (A): I Nova v. Toronto: J Johnson -140 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Early Annihilator on Blue Jays -140 The Key: The Blue Jays dropped the first two games of this series but haven't lost more than two consecutive games this season. They are 3-0 this season following back-to-back defeats, and I expect them to bounce back strong once again. Plus, the Yankees haven't pulled off a 3-game series sweep this season and haven't earned a series sweep at Toronto of at least three games since Aug. 26-28, 2004. New York's Ivan Nova hasn't been the same pitcher on the road. He is 0-3 in his last 3 road starts and has given up at least 4 runs in each. The Yankees are also 0-4 in Nova's last 4 starts as an underdog. Josh Johnson is coming off a solid start and should benefit from the fact the Yankees aren't very familiar with his stuff. Bet the Blue Jays. | |||||||
04-20-13 | Arizona: T Cahill v. Colorado: De La Rosa -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Major Mismatch* on Rockies -120 The Key: The Rockies are rolling. They are 7-0 in their last 7 overall and 11-0 in their last 11 at home dating back to last season. They are also a perfect 9-0 this season as a favorite of -110 or higher. Colorado is in good hands with Jorge De La Rosa on the mound considering it is 24-4 in his last 28 home starts. It is also extremely important to note that it is 7-0 all-time in his home starts versus the Diamondbacks. Take the Rockies. | |||||||
04-20-13 | Atlanta Braves -134 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 1-3 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Braves -134 The Key: The Pirates are 0-4 against left-handed starters this season, hitting only .125 and scoring just 1.5 runs per game against them. They'll have a tough time getting much of anything against Atlanta's Paul Maholm, who is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA. The Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a right-handed starter and are batting .263 and scoring 4.9 runs per game against them on the season. They should be able to get to Pittsburgh's James McDonald, who is 0-2 at home with an ERA of 4.15. Bet the Braves. | |||||||
04-19-13 | San Diego: E Volquez v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -1.5 (-101) The Key: Dating back to last season, the Giants are 4-0 in Madison Bumgarner's last 4 starts. They have won these by an average of 2.0 runs. The Padres, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Edison Volquez's last 4 starts and have lost these by an average of 5.8 runs. The Giants are also 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 home starts versus the Padres with these wins coming by an average of 2.0 runs. Volquez's teams are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Giants, losing these by an average of 3.5 runs. Take San Francisco on the run line. | |||||||
04-18-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks +108 v. New York Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 108 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
7* Interleague *HEAVY HITTER* on Diamondbacks +108 The Key: The D-backs have lost the first two games of this series but squandered multi-run leads in each. I really think they are the better team at this stage of the season and will prove so here with the better starter on the hill. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 in the third game of a series and 5-2 in their last 7 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Yankees have struggled against southpaw starters this season, hitting just .209 against them, and these struggles should continue against Pat Corbin, who is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA. The D-backs are 3-0 in his last 3 starts and 5-1 in his last 6. Meanwhile, New York's Phil Hughes has struggled. He has a 10.29 ERA through 2 starts, and the Yankees are 0-4 in his last 4 starts dating to last season. Opponents are hitting .472 off him this season, and he has a 6.17 ERA in four interleague home starts. The D-backs should have little trouble getting to Hughes considering the way they are crushing right-handed starters. They are batting .289 against them on the season. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Snakes. | |||||||
04-17-13 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
7* Run Line Rout of the Week on Dodgers -1.5 -111 The Key: After losing the first two games of this series, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong behind ace Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 home starts and have won these by an average of 4.3 runs. They are also 6-1 in his last 7 starts versus San Diego with the 6 wins coming by an average of 2.5 runs. The Padres aren't in the same hands with Tyson Ross. His teams are 0-5 in his last 5 starts and have lost them by an average of 2.4 runs. They are also 0-5 in his last 5 road starts, losing those by 3.4 runs on average. Take LA on the run line. | |||||||
04-17-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +123 v. Cincinnati Reds | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
6* Wednesday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Phillies +123 The Key: The Phillies, who are 10-4 in their last 14 games as an underdog, are showing value at this price given the struggles of Mike Leake. The Reds are 0-4 in Leake's last 4 starts, and he has given up 14 runs in 14 1/3 innings over his last 3. The Reds are also 0-5 all-time in Leake's starts against the Phillies, and he is carrying a 9.34 ERA in these starts. John Lannan is off to a strong start for Philadephia. The Phillies are 2-0 in his first 2 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.77. His teams are also 3-0 in his last 3 road starts and 2-0 in his last 2 starts versus the Reds. Take the Phillies. | |||||||
04-17-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians -140 | 6-3 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Mound Mismatch* on Indians -140 The Key: The Indians have the overwhelming advantage on the mound with Justin Masterson. They are 5-0 in his last 5 starts, and he has given up only 1 run in 22 innings spanning 3 starts this season. The Indians are also 6-0 in Masterson's last 6 starts versus the American League East and 4-1 in his 5 starts versus the Red Sox. They are 2-0 all-time in his 2 home starts versus Boston. The Red Sox are 0-3 in Alfredo Aceves' last 3 starts, during which he has given up 14 runs in 15 innings. Take the Tribe. | |||||||
04-16-13 | LA Anaheim: J Vargas -125 v. Minnesota: M Pelfrey | 6-8 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
6* AL *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Angels -125 The Key: The Angels are showing good value at this price. They are off to a slow start but I believe we'll see just how big of a mismatch this matchup truly is by season's end. The Angels have won 5 of their last 7 versus Minnesota and should be able to bounce back from yesterday's loss behind Jason Vargas given Minnesota's struggles with southpaws. Minnesota went 22-29 against left-handers a season ago for the AL's second-worst mark and is 1-6 in its last 7 home games versus a southpaw starter. The Twins are 11-23 in their last 34 home games overall and 27-59 in their last 86 games as a home underdog. I don't have much faith in Mike Pelfrey, which means Minnesota's tired bullpen could get thrown to the wolves. The Twins are 7-25 in home games with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over the last 3 games since the start of the 2011 season. Take the Angels. | |||||||
04-16-13 | Texas Rangers -121 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
7* Interleague Game of the Month on Rangers -121 The Key: Texas is showing good value at this price for a number of reasons. First off, I expect the Cubs to struggle against southpaw Derek Holland. They are 0-5 in their last 5 games versus a left-handed starter and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague home games versus a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 8-2 in Holland's last 10 starts as a road favorite. They are 13-3 in their last 16 interleague games and 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. The Rangers figure to handle Chicago lefty Travis Wood better as they are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games versus a left-handed starter. The Cubs are 0-7 in Wood's last 7 starts as a home underdog and 0-6 in his last 6 home starts versus a team with a winning record. All together, we have a 26-0 angle in our favor along with a couple other convincing trends. Take Texas. | |||||||
04-15-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -118 v. Cincinnati Reds | 2-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Baseball *CA$H COW* on Phillies -118 The Key: The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games and have to be shaking their heads over blowing a 5-0 lead to Pittsburgh yesterday. I expect their struggles to continue with Cliff Lee stepping to the mound for Philly. He's 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA to start the season. The Phillies are 7-3 in his last 10 starts and 14-5 in his last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Lee has also pitched well against Cincinnati, going 3-0 (3-1 on the ML) with a 1.67 ERA over his last four starts. Arroyo has struggled out of the gate, as evidence by his 5.25 ERA, and he has long struggled against the Phillies. In fact, his teams are 1-7 in his last 8 starts against them, including 0-4 in the last 4 at home. The Phillies have won 6 of their last 7 in Cincinnati. With Cincy's current losing streak, Lee's hot start and Arroyo's winless streak at home in the series, we have an 11-0 angle in our favor along with several other trends. Take the Phillies. | |||||||
04-14-13 | Cincinnati Reds -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 7-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Reds -1.5 +115 The Key: The Reds have the advantage with Mat Latos on the hill. They are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, winning these by an average of 4.0 runs. His teams are also 11-0 in his last 11 starts as a favorite of -150 or higher, winning these by an average of 2.5 runs. Latos is also 4-0 (6-0 on the money line) lifetime against the Pirates with an ERA of 2.11. These 6 wins have come by an average of 3.5 runs. Take the Reds on the run line. | |||||||
04-14-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Nationals -1.5 +146 The Key: The Nats have the edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez. They are 8-0 all-time with him on the bump in games when they are listed as a favorite of -150 or higher. They have won these games by an average of 3.6 runs. It is also worth noting that the Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. They've won these by an average of 5.2 runs. The Braves send Paul Maholm to the hill, and he has a poor track record against Washington. He is just 1-6 (2-8 on the money line) lifetime against the Nationals with an ERA of 5.52. 4 of the 5 losses his teams have suffered against Washington have come by at least 2 runs. Take Washington on the run line. | |||||||
04-13-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals -130 | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
6* AL *CA$H COW* on Royals -130 The Key: The Blue Jays have dropped each of R.A. Dickey's first two starts as he's struggled his way to an 8.43 ERA. Plus, he's just 1-3 lifetime with an ERA of 6.14 in 4 starts versus the Royals. James Shields has a respectable 3.75 ERA through two starts, and he figures to improve on it here against a team he's owned. Shields is 11-5 (15-6 on the ML) lifetime versus Toronto with an ERA of 3.24. He's 7-0 on the ML in his last 7 starts against the Jays with these wins coming by an average of 4.4 runs. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
04-13-13 | Cincinnati: J Cueto -155 v. Pittsburgh: J Locke | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Reds -155 The Key: The Reds hold the advantage on the mound with Johnny Cueto, who has looked good early with a 2.77 ERA through two starts. It has made sense to ride the Reds with Cueto on the mound when he's going good. In fact, the Reds are 22-6 in his last 28 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Reds are also 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -151 to -200 and 13-3 in Cueto's last 16 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The Pirates have lost 9 of Jeff Locke's 11 career starts, and they are 0-5 in his last 5 starts versus division opponents. Cueto is 12-4 (13-6 on the ML) lifetime versus the Pirates with an ERA of 2.54. The Reds are 5-1 in his last 6 road starts versus Pittsburgh. Bet the Reds. | |||||||
04-13-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 128 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Cardinals -1.5 +128 The Key: Yovani Gallardo is struggling, as evidenced by his 5.73 ERA and 2.000 WHIP through two starts. Adam Wainwright has been much better with an ERA of 3.46 and a 1.385 WHIP. Gallardo has never fared well against St. Louis. He's 1-10 (3-12 on the money line) lifetime against the Cards with an ERA of 6.75. These 12 losses have come by an average of 4.7 runs. Wainwright is 8-6 (10-7 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.15 in 17 career starts against Milwaukee. He has limited the Brewers to 3 earned runs or fewer in 12 consecutive starts against them. Take St. Louis on the run line. | |||||||
04-12-13 | Detroit: M Scherzer -110 v. Oakland: B Colon | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Tigers -110 The Key: The Tigers get the call at a great price with Max Scherzer on the hill. Dating back to last season, they are 11-4 in his last 15 starts. They are also 10-3 in his last 13 starts as a favorite and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Scherzer was also terrific in 3 starts versus Oakland last season, giving up 2 earned or less in each with the Tigers winning 2 of them. Bartolo Colon was torched in his only 2012 start against the reigning AL champs and is 3-8 on the money line in his last 11 starts against them. Take the Tigers. | |||||||
04-12-13 | New York Mets -108 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -108 The Key: The Mets hold a sizable advantage on the mound with Jon Niese, who has brilliant in his first two starts of the season. The Mets are 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall and he hasn't given up more than 3 earned in any of those. The Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games versus teams that have a losing record. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite. It's also important to note that the Mets are 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts series-opening starts. The Twins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in their last 4 series openers. Vance Worley is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 home starts. Plus, he has struggled against the Mets throughout his career, as evidence by his 5.30 lifetime ERA against them. He is 0-3 on the money line in his last 3 versus the Mets and was touched for at least 4 earned in each. Bet the Mets. | |||||||
04-12-13 | Chicago (A): J Quintana v. Cleveland: Masterson -142 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
6* AL Central *CA$H COW* on Indians -142 The Key: The Indians hold the edge on the hill with Justin Masterson, who has already outdueled R.A. Dickey and David Price. Going back to last season, the Indians are 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Jose Quintana really struggled in his first start, giving up 5 earned in 4 innings of an 8-7 loss to Seattle. Dating back to last season, the Sox are 0-3 in his last 3 starts. Masterson is 2-0 in his last 2 versus Chicago and has limited the Sox to 3 earned runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts against them. Take the Tribe. | |||||||
04-11-13 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -130 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels -130 The Key: The A's have taken the first two games of this series but haven't pulled off a three-game sweep of the Angels since 2004. Also, Oakland has won its first 5 on the road but hasn't opened 6-0 on the highway since 1990. Jason Vargas was solid in his first start of the season and has a strong track record against the A's. He's given up 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against them. The Angels have been hitting the snot out of the ball, recording double-digit hits in each of their last 4 games. The problem has been driving in the base runners. History is on our side here though as the Halos are on a 41-23 run after 2 straight games of stranding 10 or more runners on base. The Angels are also on a 38-23 run after 2 straight losses of 4 runs or more, a 92-55 run in home games after allowing 8 runs or more last game and a 55-34 run when out for revenge for a home loss of 6 runs or more to an opponent. Take the Angels. | |||||||
04-10-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Diamondbacks -1.5 +115 The Key: The D-backs will be very hungry this afternoon after blowing a 4-1 lead yesterday and dropping a second straight game to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has really struggled against left-handed starters this season, scoring just 1.3 runs in 3 games against them while hitting only .114. Expect those struggles to continue against Miley, who has a 1.64 ERA against them in 2 starts. Jonathan Sanchez has been a dead fade as his teams are 0-9 in his last 9 starts, losing these by an average of 4.4 runs. Each of these 9 losses came by at least 2 runs. Take Arizona on the run line. | |||||||
04-10-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -132 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Annihilator* on Giants -132 The Key: The Giants are showing plenty of value at this price with Barry Zito on the bump. They are 15-0 in his last 15 starts, winning them by an average of 3.0 runs. They are also 3-0 in his last 3 starts versus Colorado, winning these by a minimum of 3 runs. The Rockies are 0-4 in Jeff Francis' last 4 starts versus San Francisco with these losses coming by a minimum of 3 runs. The Giants are 8-0 in their last 8 games versus the Rockies. They are also 8-0 in their last 8 home games in the series. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
04-09-13 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -142 | 9-5 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Angels -142 The Key: It's been a disappointing start for an Angels club with huge expectations, but keep in mind that it started the season on the road against a pair of 2012 playoff teams. At home for the first time this season, and having had a day to regroup, I expect the Halos to take care of business. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. They are also 13-3 in their last 16 games following an off day. Additionally, the Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Oakland started the season with Seattle and Houston so it's record isn't all that impressive considering the competition. The A's send Parker to the mound, but they lost 3 of his 4 starts against the Angels last season. C.J. Wilson's clubs have won 6 of his last 8 starts versus the A's. The Angels are 7-2 in Wilson's last 9 starts and 10-3 in his last 13 starts when getting the ball following a team loss. Wilson's teams are 34-11 all-time with him on the mound if they're valued as a favorite of -125 to -175. Lastly, the Athletics are just 4-9 in their last 13 games as a road underdog. Take the Halos. | |||||||
04-09-13 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
7* MLB *Run Line Rout* on Braves -1.5 +106 The Key: The 6-1 Braves are showing value on the run line against the 1-6 Marlins. 5 of Atlanta's wins have come by at least 2 runs while 5 of Miami's losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games versus Miami, winning these by an average of 2.6 runs. They are also in good hands with Medlen on the mound. Atlanta is 5-0 in his 5 career starts versus the Marlins, winning these by 3.2 runs on average. The Braves are also 11-0 in Medlen's last 11 road starts, winning these by 3.5 runs on average. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 0-5 in LeBlanc's last 5 starts as an underdog, losing these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line. | |||||||
04-08-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 136 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
6* MLB Bailout on Giants -1.5 +136 The Key: The Giants have the edge on the mound with Bumgarner. They are 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus the Rockies, winning these by an average of 4.0 runs. He has held the Rockies to 1 earned run or none 8 of the last 9 times he's faced them. It is also worth noting that the Giants are 12-1 in Bumgarner's last 13 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. De La Rosa had some success early in his career against San Francisco but has lost 3 of his last 4 starts against the Giants, including each of his last 2. He's given up 9 runs in 9 2/3 innings in those 2. The Rockies are 1-5 in De La Rosa's last 6 road starts and 9-25 in their last 34 meetings in San Francisco. Take the Giants on the run line. | |||||||
04-08-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -110 | 13-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
6* MLB *Afternoon Annihilator* on Cardinals -110 The Key: The Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Jaime Garcia. He's 8-2 lifetime against the Reds with an ERA of 3.06. Compare that to Mat Latos, who is 2-4 lifetime with a 9.00 ERA against St. Louis. Latos has really struggled at Busch, where he is 1-3 with a 13.50 ERA in four career starts. Garcia, on the other hand, is 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA in six career starts at home versus Cincinnati. These 6 wins have come by an average of 5.0 runs. Dating back to last season, the Cardinals are 5-0 in Garcia's last 5 starts overall and 4-0 in his last 4 home starts. Take the Cards. | |||||||
04-07-13 | Los Angeles Angels +127 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
7* Sunday Night Baseball *HEAVY HITTER* on Angels +127 The Key: It will be tough for Yu Darvish to bounce back mentally and physically following the best outing of his major league career. He threw 111 pitches in his near-perfect game but had thrown a high of only 78 pitches during spring training so I don't expect him to have his "A" stuff here. Jered Weaver is the far more proven starter. He's 4-0 in his last 4 starts against Texas. He's held the Rangers to 3 earned runs or fewer in each of these, and the Angels won these games by an average of 5.0 runs. The Angels are 10-2 in Weaver's last 12 road starts and 6-0 in his last 6 road starts versus a team with a winning record. I believe we're getting the better pitcher and the better team at a great price. Take the Halos. | |||||||
04-07-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers -105 | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB Afternoon Annihilator on Brewers -105 The Key: Even with some big bats out of the lineup, the Brewers are showing value at this price with ace Yovani Gallardo on the hill considering how dominant he's been against Arizona. He's 7-0 (9-0 on the money line) lifetime against the D-backs with an ERA of 1.09. These 9 victories have come by an average of 4.4 runs. The D-backs have lost 3 of Ian Kennedy's last 4 starts versus Milwaukee, and they are 0-3 lifetime when he is opposed by Gallardo. Bet the Brew Crew. | |||||||
04-06-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
6* MLB *RUN LINE ROUT* on Dodgers -1.5 +110 The Key: With Friday's 3-0 win, the Dodgers are now 7-0 in their last 7 home games versus the Pirates. They have won these by an average of 4.6 runs. Dating back to last season, the Pirates are only 1-9 in A.J. Burnett's last 10 starts. They are 0-3 in his last 3, losing those by an average of 2.3 runs. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Clayton Kershaw's last 4 starts, winning those by an average of 4.5 runs. In addition, Burnett's clubs are 0-11 all-time with him on the mound in road games when the total is 7.0 or less. They have lost these contests by an average score of 6.3 to 2.2. In other words, Burnett has lost pitching duels on the road time and time again. Take the Dodgers on the run line. | |||||||
04-05-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers -127 | 3-1 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Brewers -127 The Key: The Brewers hold a sizable advantage on the mound with Kyle Lohse, who went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 33 starts for St. Louis last season. He was sharp in his lone spring training outing, which tells me he was working hard despite dealing with contract negotiations that weren't resolved until last week. Lohse dominated the D-backs last season, going 1-0 with a 0.77 ERA in two starts. Wade Miley didn't have the same success against the Brew Crew. While he had a nice rookie campaign, the southpaw posted a 10.24 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee. He gave up a career-high eight runs in 3 2-3 innings of a 10-2 loss at Miller Park on June 30. He struggled in spring training, as evidenced by the 7.43 ERA he posted. The Diamondbacks are only 1-6 in the last 7 games in Milwaukee, which doesn't come as much of a surprise considering just about every team has had trouble winning there. The Brewers are 112-60 at home since the start of the 2011 season and are 97-44 as a home favorite of -110 or higher during this span. It's also worth noting that the Brewers are 11-3 in their last 14 games following a loss, 11-4 in their last 15 series openers and 13-6 in their last 19 home games versus a left-handed starter. Bet the Beermakers. | |||||||
04-04-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | 8-10 | Win | 126 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
6* MLB Run Line Rout on Blue Jays -1.5 +126 The Key: The Blue Jays enter the season with huge expectations but have disappointed in their first two games. I expect them to show up hungry and focused here as a result. They have a definite edge on the mound with Mark Buehrle, who was solid in spring training. Brett Myers, not so much. He posted a 9.00 ERA in the spring while Buehrle posted a 4.50 ERA. Buehrle's clubs are 73-33 all-time with him on the hill as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Also, the Tribe is a soft 4-10 in its last 14 games versus southpaw starters. The Indians are also 16-36 in their last 52 games as a road underdog, and the Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 in the third game of a series. Take Toronto showing good value on the run line. | |||||||
04-04-13 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Yankees -120 The Key: After losing the first two games of the series, I expect the Yankees to be very focused this evening. Keep in mind that they are 39-13 in their last 52 games after losing the first two games of a series. The Yankees have struggled at the plate in the first two games, but I like their chances against Ryan Dempster. Fading Dempster versus the Yankees has never lost as he's 0-4 (0-5 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 2.048 in 5 career starts against them. The Yankees are in better hands with Andy Pettitte, who has a proven track record against the Red Sox. The Yankees have won 24 of his last 36 starts against them, including 5 of his last 6. Plus, they Yankees are an impressive 97-43 in Pettitte's last 140 starts as a home favorite. New York is showing great value at this price. | |||||||
04-03-13 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
6* MLB *MAJOR MISMATCH* on Nationals -1.5 -110 The Key: The Nationals hold major mismatches all over the field, but especially on the mound. Gio Gonzalez was fantastic in the spring, and his teams are 46-18 all-time when listed as a favorite of -110 or higher with him on the mound. They have won these games by an average score of 5.1 to 3.0. The Marlins have struggled on the road against southpaws. In fact, they are 0-7 in their last 7 road games versus a left-handed starter and have lost these by 2.9 runs on average. Take Washington on the run line. | |||||||
04-02-13 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -139 | 7-1 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on A's -139 The Key: I went against the A's yesterday, but Felix Hernandez was on the hill for Seattle. Today, I'm backing Oakland as I believe it has the edge on the mound with Jarrod Parker, who went 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA a year ago. The Athletics are a terrific 20-6 in their last 26 in the 2nd game of a series. They are also an impressive 40-15 in their last 55 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The A's are 4-0 in Parker's last 4 starts as a favorite and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings with Seattle. In addition, you want to back teams with a money line of +100 to -150 in the first 12 games of the season if they had a winning record last season and closed out the season strong with 26 wins or more in their last 40 games. Doing so has produced a 37-11 mark the last 5 seasons. Take the A's. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |