Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-26-23 | A's +200 v. Angels | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Oakland has the worst record in baseball at 5-19 and after taking the series opener on Monday, it dropped Game Two last night 5-3 and it hopes to get the offense going tonight before facing Shohei Ohtani on Thursday. The young roster has struggled on both sides and hopes are the pitching gets a boost tonight with the Angels having nothing to work off of. Los Angeles opened the season 7-5 but have been the opposite since, going 5-7 over its last 12 games and has been no sure thing when laying numbers this big, going 2-3 when favored by -190 or more. Luis Medina will be making his Major League debut after getting recalled from AAA. He is the No. 18 prospect in the organization and can provide a spark to a struggling rotation. He has a huge arm as his fastball can hit 100 MPH and a nearly unhittable curveball with an above average changeup as he just has to limit some control issues. Patrick Sandoval was off to a great start with a 1.23 ERA through his first three starts but was hit hard against an injury plagued Yankees lineup last time out, allowing five runs over four innings and the Angels have lost his last three starts as the offense has not given him anything, scoring only nine runs in those three games. 10* (919) Oakland A's | |||||||
04-26-23 | Marlins +147 v. Braves | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Braves have won two straight games following a four-game losing streak and with an elite top half of the rotations, playing against them when we hit the bottom portion is where the value lies, especially with a Cy Young winner on our side. Miami had a nice run going as it had won eight of ten games before a series closing loss against Cleveland and then coming to Atlanta where it has been outscored 18-4 in the two games. The Marlins are still at .500 on the season and winning when pitching has been at its best. Sandy Alcantara has not gotten off to a good start as it was mainly one bad start at Philadelphia that has inflated his numbers but he does own a complete game shutout and he has the stuff to reproduce another gem. Bryce Elder has been surprisingly good as he has allowed no earned runs in three of his four outings but this is not sustainable despite what has been a solid carryover from last season where he posted a 3.17 ERA in nine starts. Here, we play on National League road underdogs averaging 3.8 or more rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 27-10 (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) Miami Marlins | |||||||
04-25-23 | Rangers v. Reds +141 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 141 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Cincinnati snapped a six-game losing streak with a 7-6 win in this series opener on Monday and those seven runs were one more than it scored during that losing streak combined. The Reds improved to 7-6 at home compared to being just 1-9 on the road. The Rangers were on a 6-1 run prior to the defeat on Monday and they remain 2.5 games in front of the Astros in the American League West at 14-8 overall. They also had a four-game road winning streak snapped and are again laying a big number after closing last night as a small favorite. Martin Perez has been solid but has yet to make it through six innings and he is coming off his worst start in four outings, allowing season highs in hits and runs allowed and this marks his fourth straight road start. Luke Weaver is making just his second start of the season and third in a year and a half. He allowed four runs in the first inning against the Pirates but settled down after that and should be fine. Here, we play against road teams batting .315 or better over their last five games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 30-13 (69.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
04-25-23 | Dodgers v. Pirates +112 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Pirates are off to a surprising 16-7 start following a seven-game winning streak prior to its day off on Monday. The pitching has led the way during this stretch as Pittsburgh has allowed three runs or less in those seven games and that will be on display again. Conversely, the Dodgers are off to an average start at 12-11 but they are coming off a 3-1 series win at Chicago and are obviously listed as the favorites here based on who they are and not what they have done early in the season. Johan Oviedo has gotten off to a solid start as after a poor opening outing, he has tossed three straight quality starts, posing a 0.92 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in those games. It is no fluke as he was great last season after coming over from St. Louis with a 3.23 ERA in seven starts. Noah Syndergaard is coming off a pair of quality outings but those were at home and he was shelled in Arizona in his lone road start of the season. He faced a weak Pirates team once last season and was hit hard, allowing five runs in 5.2 innings. Here, we play on home teams after a combined score of three runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 55-27 (67.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
04-24-23 | Astros +137 v. Rays | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Ultimate Underdog. Tampa Bay has gotten off to an incredible 19-3 start which includes a 13-0 record at home but it has faced a very favorable schedule as it has played only one team that is more than one game over .500 and that resulted in a series loss against Toronto. Overall, the Rays have played the easiest schedule in baseball. Houston is coming off a sweep at Atlanta and has won four straight games to improve to 12-20 on the season and it is now just two and a half games behind the Rangers in the American League West. Taj Bradley has gotten his Major League career off to a solid start as he has posted a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his first two starts. He is the No. 1 pitching prospect in the organization after posting a 1.83 ERA in 2021 in Single A and a 2.83 ERA in 2022 in Double A. He was average in his opener against the Red Sox and was fortunate to face the Reds in his second outing as Cincinnati has scored a total of six runs over its last six games. Jose Urquidy counters for the Astros and he was trending the right way before a shaky outing in his last start where he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings against Toronto. Here, we play against teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 44-29 (60.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (907) Houston Astros | |||||||
04-22-23 | Reds +140 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. The Pirates went into Colorado and swept the Rockies by a combined score of 33-9 and returned home to take the first two games of this series 4-3 and 4-2 as the pitching has allowed three runs or less in five straight games. They are now a surprising 14-7 overall to keep pace with the Brewers in the National League Central. Cincinnati has lost four straight games which included a pair of shutout losses to red hot Tampa Bay prior to the two losses to open this set as the offense has been nonexistent with those five total runs but they catch a good matchup here to get it going again. Rich Hill is coming off a pair of quality starts as the ageless lefty has rebounded from two poor outings to open the season. One thing that has not gotten better is giving up the long ball as he has allowed seven home runs in four starts. Luis Cessa got lambasted in his last start, allowing 11 runs on 14 hits in three innings against the Phillies so it is safe to assume he can only be better and has a good matchup here. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 hitting .250 or worse going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better, in April games. This situation is 31-16 (66 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (907) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
04-21-23 | White Sox +160 v. Rays | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WITE SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. It has been a rough start for the White Sox which are 7-12 to open the season and after opening with a series split against Houston, Chicago has lost its last five series, all two games to one, and it will be get easier here but it opens with the best pitching matchup for the weekend before facing ace Shane McClanahan tomorrow. Tampa Bay continues to dominate as it opened 13-0 but has leveled out by going 3-3 over its last six games despite coming off a pair of shutout wins at Cincinnati to close that series. This is a big price with a fill in starter for tonight, however. Calvin Faucher will be making his second start of the season as he went 2.2 innings against Toronto in his first outing as an opener and will be looking to get stretched out to four innings if the reliever can make it that long which will be a challenge. He has not been a starter since 2014 when he was a freshman in college. Michael Kopech had a horrible opening start against the Giants where he allowed five home runs but has settled down with a pair of good outing, posting a 3.27 ERA in those games. He is looking for a breakout season after having a 3.54 ERA in 25 starts in 2022. 10* (961) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
04-21-23 | Reds +130 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Pirates went into Colorado and swept the Rockies by a combined score of 33-9 and returned home to take the opening game of this series last night 4-3 as all four runs were scored in the first inning yet Pittsburgh had just four hits the entire game. They are now a surprising 13-7 overall to keep pace with the Brewers in the National League Central. Cincinnati has lost three straight games which included a pair of shutout losses to red hot Tampa Bay and the Reds get that game from last night back with a solid pitching matchup here. Graham Ashcraft is showing his potential as he has been strong thus far, posting a 1.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through his first three starts following an absolute gem in his final spring training game that solidified him in the top of the rotation. In 19 starts last season, he went 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA and that ERA went up late in the season when he allowed 16 earned runs in 12 innings in his last three starts. Mitch Keller has pitched well also as he has tossed three straight quality outings after getting hit hard in his opening start which happened to come against the Pirates, a team he has struggled against with a 6.88 career ERA. 10* (953) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
04-19-23 | Rangers v. Royals -108 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. The Rangers won their third straight game to maintain their two-game lead over the Angels in the American League West and look to complete the three-game sweep before heading home for a weekend series with Oakland. The Royals have dropped five straight games and look to get things right before embarking on a 10-game roadtrip which could already see them playing for last place in the American League Central. Kansas City has gone cold on offense with just 12 runs scored during this skid but we see a rebound here despite what the pitching numbers tell us. Brady Singer looked good in his opening start against Toronto but has been hit hard in his last two outings but he is a solid pitcher that closed last season allowing two runs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts. Martin Perez was the ace of the staff a season ago and he has started right where he left off with a 2.87 ERA through his first three starts but has been fortunate to limit the damage as he has a 1.60 WHIP with his strikeout numbers decreases over each outing. Here, we play on home teams batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, starting a pitcher who has allowed five or more runs in his last two outings. This situation is 56-30 (65.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
04-18-23 | Braves v. Padres +125 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. We lost with San Diego last night as it is off to a slow start as it has lost five of its last six games including getting shutout in its last two games to fall to 8-10 on the season. The offense continues to struggle and the Padres will be getting Fernando Tatis, Jr. back on Thursday but until then, and as mentioned yesterday which did not happen, the rest of this potent lineup has to step up. The Braves have won seven straight games following the 2-0 victory last night and four of the other six wins have come by just one run so they have been fortunate and clutch at the same time. Atlanta is now 12-4 and has a two-game lead over the Mets which have tried to keep pace with five straight wins and the Braves pitching has led the way. Spencer Strider will not be an easy task for the Padres as he has been solid but his last two starts have been average as he has allowed three runs over five innings in each of those and those two games have accounted for two of those one run victories. The Padres counter with Blake Snell and the former Cy Young winner has gotten off to a slow start with a 6.92 ERA and 2.15 WHIP through three starts and while his best one was his last one, it still was not great as he allowed three runs in five innings against the Mets in New York. He returns to Petco Park after two road starts where he has posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP since coming to the Padres. 10* (908) San Diego Padres | |||||||
04-18-23 | Cubs v. A's +161 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. After a 1-3 start, the Cubs have won seven of their last 10 games including a 10-1 victory last night in this series opener. This followed a 2-1 series win at the Dodgers as the pitching has dominated on this roadtrip thus far, allowing a total of seven runs and they come in as huge favorites tonight. Oakland has lost five straight games which is its second losing streak of the young season of at least five games to fall to 3-14 overall. The A's offense has been one of the worst in baseball but it has been streaky where it has shown positive results and prior to the recent stretch of scoring six runs in their last three games, they averaged 7.3 rpg in their previous four. Marcus Stroman is showing signs of some of his best years as he has started the season with three straight quality starts, including two games where he allowed no runs and overall he has posted a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP covering 18 innings but this is not sustainable. Ken Waldichuk got off to a horrendous start as he posted a 14.54 ERA over his first two starts but he rebounded last time out against a potent Orioles lineup, as he tossed a quality outing in Baltimore in an 8-4 win. He did not allow a home run after giving up seven in those first two starts and faces a below average power team here as Chicago has hit only 20 home runs on the season and is back in a non-power ball park. 10* (930) Oakland A's | |||||||
04-18-23 | Pirates v. Rockies +103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Colorado has lost six straight games including a 14-3 beatdown against the Pirates last night to open this series. The offense put up 10 runs in the final two games of its most recent homestand that started this skid but the bats have cooled off considerably as the Rockies have managed just eight runs over the last four games. Pittsburgh is off to a surprising 10-7 start and despite the outburst last night, the offense is sill not a good one as the Pirates scored four more runs Monday than they did in their previous four games combined. They were shoutout twice over that stretch and have scored two runs or fewer six times this season. Vince Velasquez opened the season with a pair of rough outings before his last start where he did not allow an earned run over six innings against St. Louis and we can chalk that up to an anomaly as he has been below average his entire career with a 4.94 ERA and since being traded from the Phillies in late 2021, he has made only 16 starts and we can see regression here with his 5.18 ERA in his career at Coors Field. It has been a rough start for Jose Urena who four runs in each of his first two outings while not getting out of the third inning in either of those but he bounced back with a better game last time out as he allowed three runs in five innings against a potent Cardinals offense. 10* (906) Colorado Rockies | |||||||
04-17-23 | Braves v. Padres +141 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Braves have opened the season red hot as they improved to 12-4 following their sixth consecutive win on Sunday that included series sweeps against the Reds and Royals and now they step back up in competition again. They hosted San Diego prior to this streak and lost the series 3-1 so there is revenge but that is not in play. San Diego meanwhile is off to a slow start as it has lost four of its last five games including getting shutout 1-0 on Sunday against the Brewers to fall to 8-9 on the season. The offense continues to struggle and the Padres will be getting Fernando Tatis, Jr. back on Thursday but until then, the rest of this potent lineup has to step up. Max Fried is back on the hill for Atlanta after one short outing as he went on the IL with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss over two weeks. We do not see him getting stretched too much here after tossing only 43 pitches in that first start and the bullpen, which is very solid, has been overused the last week. Ryan Weathers has been strong through two starts as he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and has gone five innings in each outing with his command in good form, not throwing more than 90 pitches in each. 10* (958) San Diego Padres | |||||||
04-17-23 | Brewers v. Mariners +133 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Both Milwaukee and Seattle are coming off 1-0 shutout wins on Sunday and Seattle remains home and now as an underdog due to the starting pitching matchup. The Mariners have had a streaky start to the season as they opened 1-4 and then went 3-1, 0-3 and have now won four straight games to get back to .500 for the first time since the first two games of the season. Milwaukee took three of four in San Diego as it got a gem from Wade Miley on Sunday and the Brewers are now 11-5 on the season as they continue this 10-game roadtrip. Milwaukee has gotten it done with outstanding pitching all around as its 2.94 ERA is good for No. 3 in baseball with the bullpen leading the way with a 2.26 ERA. Corbin Burnes is the ace of this staff and he shook off two bad outings to open the season as he tossed eight shutout innings at Arizona in his last start but faces a much better offense on Monday that has underachieved through 16 games. Chris Flexen opened the season with a pair of solid outings, although neither were quality, but he got roughed up by the Cubs on Tuesday as he could not hold onto a 7-0 lead as he gave up eight runs in the third inning while recording just one out. The last two seasons shows he can and will bounce back. 10* (976) Seattle Mariners | |||||||
04-16-23 | Brewers +153 v. Padres | Top | 1-0 | Win | 153 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Ultimate Underdog. Milwaukee won the first two games of this series before losing Game Three on Saturday and the Brewers will be out to win their fifth consecutive series to open the season. Milwaukee leads the National League Central by a game over the surprising Pirates and the offense has a shot to bounce back at a great price as the Brewers lead the Majors with a .284 average against right-handed pitching. San Diego snapped its three-game losing streak with the 10-3 victory and this was just the third time this season this expected potent offense has scored eight or more runs. The Padres have the seventh lowest batting average in baseball as they are hitting only .236 and have another tough series on deck against Atlanta. Wade Miley has been solid thus far as he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his first two starts and he looks to keep rolling after an injury plagued season with the Cubs last year. He has been very underrated when healthy as he has a 3.56 ERA in his last two full seasons and including the two games this season. Yu Darvish had a solid opening start against Arizona but struggled last time out against the Mets, allowing five runs in 6.1 innings in a 5-0 loss and does not catch a break facing another potent lineup. It could take him a while to find some rhythm as he did not pitch in the Cactus League because of his participation in the WBC. 10* (909) Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
04-15-23 | Mets v. A's +168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S for our MLB Ultimate Underdog. Following a 4-2 homestand, the Mets opened its 10-game roadtrip by pounding Oakland 17-6 on only 11 hits as they benefitted from getting walked 17 times so they cannot expect anything like that again. New York is now 8-6 on the season as the offense remains a concern despite last night as it No. 28 in baseball with a .224 average and that dips to .221 on the road. Oakland has lost two straight and eight of its last nine games even though the offense has shown signs of life after a brutal start. After scoring one runs over a three-game span against Tampa Bay and Baltimore, the A's have averaged 7.3 rpg over their last four games and can continue the success on Saturday. Both starters are coming in in awful form which makes this line too big for Carlos Carrasco. He has allowed five runs in each of his first two starts which have covered only 8.2 innings total. He closed last season strong but still cannot be trusted. Shintaro Fujinami has been equally bad and is now pitching to keep his spot in the rotation. He is on a unique schedule as he is slated to pitch every Saturday so he has been getting plenty of rest which is the one benefit coming into today. Here, we play against road favorites hitting .250 or worse and batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse. This situation is 23-9 (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Oakland A's | |||||||
04-14-23 | Angels v. Red Sox +108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 108 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Boston went into Tampa Bay and got swept in four games by the Rays who are on an historical run and now heads home at 5-8 and in last place in the American League East. Both offense and pitching were poor with the exception of one game each and now the Red Sox are catching a good number at home to get back on track. The Angeles were off on Thursday following a series win against Washington to improve to 7-5 which is good for a first place tie with Texas in the American League West. Pitching has been the strength for Los Angeles and that will be on display here with Patrick Sandoval on the hill. He has allowed one run in each of his first two starts but he has not been missing many bats as he has posted only two strikeouts in each of those first two games. Boston counters with Tanner Houck who is also off to a solid yet unspectacular start but has been responsible for two of its five wins. In 32 games last season, he posted a 3.15 ERA and should fit right into this rotation. Here, we play against teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season going up against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 41-27 (60.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Boston Red Sox | |||||||
04-13-23 | Red Sox +200 v. Rays | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. Tampa Bay is coming off another win to move to 12-0 on the season as it owns the third best start in Major League history and the best since 1987 and it has done it from both sides. The Rays are ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in runs, batting average, OPS and home runs for and against which is something unsustainable. Boston has lost three straight games following a three-game winning streak as it has managed only two runs in the first two losses but the bats came alive yesterday as expected. The Red Sox have scored two runs or less in four of their games but has tallied six runs or more in seven games including nine runs or more four times. One former Cy Young winner got hammered yesterday and Boston hopes to get a better performance from another one today with Corey Kluber who has also gotten off to a shaky start. However, his damage was in his first outing and he settled down last time out, allowing one run on three hits in five innings against the Pirates. This is a revenge outing after starting 31 games for the Rays last season. Jeffrey Springs is another starter that has gotten off to an incredible start as he has yet to allow a run in two starts over 13 innings but those games were against Oakland and Detroit. He is an ace on a lot of teams coming off a 2022 season where he had a 2.46 ERA over 25 starts and eight relief appearances, hence, the massive line being laid here. 10* (959) Boston Red Sox | |||||||
04-12-23 | Nationals +152 v. Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Interleague Game of the Month. Washington won the series opener against the Angels 6-4 on Monday but then ran into Shohei Ohtani last night as he dominated over seven innings, allowing only one hit and no runs. The Nationals are now 4-8 with three of those losses coming against undefeated Tampa Bay so it has not been all that bad. The Angels are off to a 6-5 start which is decent and the average start is not surprising for a team that has been average at best for a few years and has done basically nothing to improve behind Ohtani and Mike Trout. This is a team that should not be laying a number like this in a toss-up pitching matchup. Griffin Canning is making his first start of the season and his first start in 21 months for that matter as he has missed time with a lower back stress fracture. He missed the first part of the season with a groin injury and while healthy, it is unknown how far he can actually go and the bullpen has struggled. Mackenzie Gore will be making his third start and has been very impressive. He allowed just one run in 5.1 inning against Atlanta in his opener and two runs in six innings against Colorado on Friday and both resulted in victories. He brings in a 2.38 ERA and a ton of confidence into this one. 10* (929) Washington Nationals | |||||||
04-12-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies +155 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. Colorado won the series opener on Monday 7-4 but lost game two last night 9-6 as it blew a 6-2 lead by allowing four runs in the seventh and three in the ninth. The Rockies are now 5-7 including 3-3 at home and are getting a good number here based on the starting pitching numbers early on. St. Louis is now just 4-7 and the potential is there for a big run but something is just not right yet. The Cardinals broke out late last night but the offense is still bottom third in the league in scoring despite hitting the ball well as it has been unable to get good in the clutch. Jack Flaherty has been solid through two starts with a 1.80 ERA but his command has been awful as he has given up 13 walks but the damage has been limited to lack of hits from the opposition. Now he heads to the thin air of Colorado where things could get dicey and in 100 career starts, this is surprisingly his first one ever at Coors Field. It has been a rough start for Jose Urena who has allowed four runs in each of his first two outings while not getting out of the third inning in either of those. He is a veteran pitcher who has dealt with this before and looks to settle down today. 10* (904) Colorado Rockies | |||||||
04-11-23 | Red Sox +162 v. Rays | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Tampa Bay won a 1-0 game last night thanks to a solo home run in the eighth inning to remain undefeated on the season, becoming just the seventh team in MLB history to open a season 10-0. This was also the third straight shutout for the Rays after beating Oakland 11-0 in consecutive games. The Red Sox has a three-game winning streak snapped with the loss but are catching a favorable price with the markets needing to adjust. Garrett Whitlock is making his first start of the season after starting the season on the IL. He has made two rehab starts and all has been positive and in his last one, he allowed one run on one hit, one walk, and eight strikeouts in six innings with Double-A Portland. He was solid in nine starts last season before being dominant in the bullpen near the end of the season in August and September. Shane McClanahan has made two starts and both have been quality outings but those were against two of the worst offenses in baseball in Detroit and Washington and while Boston has not been crushing the ball, it has been above average. The Red Sox are top ten in runs scored and OPS while hitting lefties well and coming off the shutout outs them in a good spot. 10* (967) Boston Red Sox | |||||||
04-11-23 | A's +177 v. Orioles | Top | 8-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. It has been a tough stretch for Oakland as after a season opening win, it has lost eight of its last nine games including five straight following a 5-1 series opening loss last night. The A's have scored just one run over their last three games after coming off a stretch of four games averaging 6.0 rpg. Baltimore snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory and it has gotten off to an inconsistent start at 5-5. Last night was the first time being favored this season and the number has risen for the game tonight coming off that victory with the value being on the other side. Oakland sends Kyle Muller to the hill for his third start this season and the opening day starter has been solid through two starts, posting a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and was responsible for that first win of the season against the Angels. Baltimore counters with Grayson Rodriguez who was decent in his opening start, allowing two runs on four hits over five inning against Texas in a 5-2 loss. He was called up a little sooner than expected with an injury to Kyle Bradish as the No. 12 overall prospect in baseball really struggled in the spring trying to make the rotation with a 7.04 ERA over 15.1 innings and the pressure is on making his home debut. 10* (965) Oakland A's | |||||||
04-11-23 | Astros v. Pirates +166 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 166 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. After opening the season 1-2, Pittsburgh has won five of its last seven games despite an 8-2 loss last night to open this three-game series. The Pirates have been inconsistent on both sides but have shown flashes with both the offense and pitching and are catching a good price against a public favorite. It has been a rough start for the reigning World Series champions as Houston is off to a 5-6 start despite coming off a pair of wins and while this could provide some momentum, the Astros seem to be going through the typical championship hangover. Christian Javier has made two starts including a quality outing in his last one against the Tigers, tossing six innings while allowing one run on five hits. This is his first start on the road where he has not been as effective throughout his short career as he has a 2.57 ERA in 43 home games compared to a 3.66 ERA in 37 games on the road. Mitch Keller is in his third season as a full time starter with the Pirates and after struggling with a 6.17 ERA in 2021, he improved significantly last season with a 3.91 ERA over 29 starts. He was roughed up in his opener against Cincinnati but shut down the Red Sox in his second outing, allowing just one run on four hits in seven innings. 10* (976) Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
04-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies +131 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 131 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Underdog Dominator. St. Louis has gotten off to a slow start at 3-6 including a 2-1 series loss at Milwaukee over the weekend to open this six-game roadtrip. Steven Matz was hit hard in his first start as he allowed four runs on 10 hits in 5.1 inning against the Braves in a four-run loss. Now he heads to Colorado where a lot of pitchers struggle and Matz has had his issues here as he has a 9.20 ERA in three career starts. Colorado is also off to a poor start at 4-6 which included a series split against Washington after opening the season with six road games. German Marquez opened the season with a quality outing against the Padres and then had a poor start against the Dodgers but both were on the road against elite offenses. He makes his first home start where he has not been great over his career but he has the familiarity on his side and faces a team he has dominated with a 2.83 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in eight career starts. Here, we play against National League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher allowing 4.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent allowing 5.5 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 24-10 (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies | |||||||
04-07-23 | A's +220 v. Rays | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S for our MLB Underdog Dominator. We feel it is about time for this Tampa Bay run to come to an end as the Rays are the lone remaining undefeated team in baseball at 6-0. They have faced a very favorable schedule with this being their third straight series to open the season against a team not going to contend for a division title or the playoffs. While that means they should be winning these games, which they have, they are now being overpriced and in a massive way tonight. Zach Eflin made his Rays debut and was solid against the Tigers after spending his first seven seasons in Philadelphia but was nothing but average with a 4.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 127 games and does not warrant a price this big. Oakland is 2-4 and the offense has picked it up by averaging 6.3 rpg in its last three games after scoring only three runs in its first three games. Ken Waldichuk was lit up against the Angels in his season opener but he should settle down here. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 36-19 (65.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Oakland A's | |||||||
04-05-23 | Mets +121 v. Brewers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Underdog Dominator. The Mets opened the season 3-1 but have been shutout their last two games against the Brewers and have a tough spot here against the Milwaukee ace but he was vulnerable in his opener. New York send David Peterson to the hill and while he was responsible for that lone loss during the 3-1 start, he pitched well as he allowed just one run over five innings, a solo shot from Jorge Soler, and looks to build off that outing here. He was solid last season before being relegated to the bullpen in mid-September as he allowed three runs or less in 15 of 19 starts and looks to cool down a hot Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers have put up 28 runs over their last three games after scoring three runs in their first two games and have now won four straight games. Corbin Burnes won the 2021 Cy Young award and he tailed off somewhat last season although it was still a very solid year with a 2.94 ERA over 33 starts. In his season opener this year, he allowed four runs in five innings against the Cubs and now faces one of the most potent lineups in baseball despite coming off a pair of shutouts. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 allowing 4.5 or more rpg on the season, after getting shut out in two straight games. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (955) New York Mets | |||||||
04-04-23 | Rockies +230 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Dodgers are off to a 3-2 start following a 13-4 series opening win over the Rockies last night and they have averaged over 10 rpg in those three victories while scoring only one run in each of its two losses, both of which followed a victory. Julio Urias takes the hill for Los Angeles following a quality start in his season opener as he went six innings while allowing two runs in the 6-2 victory over Arizona. He is a sleep Cy Young candidate and while the price reflects that, it is too much of an adjustment. The Rockies are now 2-3 as they came away with a split against the Padres prior to the Monday loss and they have now dropped three straight games which puts them in a good bounce back spot here at a great price. German Marquez counters for Colorado and he is also coming off a quality outing as he went six innings against San Diego, allowing only two runs as he remains much more effective on the road. He has a 3.75 career ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the road as opposed to a 5.08 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at Coors Field. Last season was the epitome of this where he had a 6.70 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home compared to a 3.34 ERA and 11.14 WHIP on the road. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies | |||||||
04-04-23 | Rays v. Nationals +161 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay is off to a 4-0 start after a 6-2 series opening win yesterday against Washington and the Rays are just one of two remaining undefeated teams in baseball. The pitching has been outstanding as they have allowed only five runs in those four games and their 1.00 team ERA is the best in baseball. That could take a hit after tonight as No. 5 starter Josh Fleming takes the hill for his first start after coming off a rough season where he went 2-5 with a 6.43 ERA and spent time between Tampa Bay and AAA because of inconsistency and injuries. He did not have a great spring and kind of backed into this spot because of the injury to Tyler Glasnow who is out for well over another month. The Nationals are 1-3 to start the season as they have been inconsistent on both sides but have a good matchup here. While it is a small sample size still, Washington has struggled against righties with a .127 average while hitting .289 against left-handed pitching. Chad Kuhl gets the ball for the Nationals and before he was dinged up last season, he had a 4-2 record and 3.17 ERA through his first 10 starts and finished the spring strong to grab the final spot in the rotation. 10* (926) Washington Nationals | |||||||
04-03-23 | Orioles +122 v. Rangers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 122 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Underdog Dominator. Baltimore had a rough opening series against the Red Sox from a pitching standpoint as it allowed nine runs in each of the three games with the middle game being a devastating blow as a dropped fly ball that would have ended the game extended it and that resulted in a Boston win. The offense was fine and should continue its surge here. Overall, Kyle Bradish was average last season but he was not 100 percent and was shut down for about six weeks in June and July and that rest made a huge difference. Over his last 13 games, after returning from right shoulder inflammation, he went 3-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while allowing a batting average of .212 and .607 OPS. He missed a lot of bats this spring and while this is not an ideal matchup for his first outing, the line reflects that. Texas is coming off an opening series sweep over the Phillies as the bats that put up 27 runs in the first two games came back down Sunday but the pitching made the difference in the 2-1 win. Jon Gray is coming off a solid spring but faded down the stretch and will be facing a very potent lineup that lit him up in his lone start against Baltimore last season. 10* (963) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
04-02-23 | Phillies +116 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Star Attraction. We are only a couple games into the season but the Texas offense has been bashing as the Rangers have put up 27 runs through their first two games and they lead the league with a .375 average. This is obviously not sustainable despite Texas getting to the top two starters in the Phillies rotation as Philadelphia now turns to Bailey Falter who won a spot in the rotation after a solid spring, mixing his pitches to get easy outs and in his most recent start, he went five shutout innings against the Tigers. He was very strong at the end of last season as he allowed two runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and overall posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Texas counters with Martin Perez who is coming off a great season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 32 starts as he was the most consistent starter in the rotation. He has been limited this spring as it was not a typical camp as he pitched for Team Venezuela in the WBC so he was never on schedule and following a 70-pitch outing, his last appearance was out of the bullpen where he tossed 15 pitches and he is on track to go no more than 80 pitches should he make it that far. The Phillies offense has been overshadowed as they are No. 6 in OPS and No. 9 in average. 10* (929) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
04-01-23 | Tigers +165 v. Rays | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Offense was not on full display on Opening Day as six teams were held to either one run or shutout with Detroit being one of the latter as it lost the opener 4-0 despite both teams registering six hits. The Tigers scored the fewest runs in baseball last season and while not possessing an opposing lineup again, there are some great pieces at the top of the lineup and they face Zach Eflin who is making his Rays debut after spending his first seven seasons in Philadelphia and was nothing but average with a 4.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 127 games and does not warrant a price this big. Spencer Turnbull is the No. 2 guy in the rotation after missing all of last season and making just 20 starts the previous two seasons but there are solid expectations. He has always has electric stuff but injuries have derailed him so now starting out healthy is the time to jump on. His fastball velocity has been good in his spring outings, sitting around 94 mph, while his slider has come around more recently. When he throws strikes and mixes up his stuff effectively, he can be dominant and the Rays have very little to look at. 10* (967) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
04-01-23 | Twins v. Royals +147 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Royals were another team that were shutout on Thursday as they lost 2-0 while managing a mere two hits as newly acquired Pablo Lopez was solid over 5.1 innings. No. 2 starter Sonny Gray gets the ball on Saturday and he is coming off a solid season with a 3.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 24 starts. In those games, he averaged 4.9 innings, his lowest since 2018 when averaged 4.3 innings in 23 starts and seven bullpen appearances for the Reds and the short leash was on display Thursday with Lopez who was pulled after just over five innings. Minnesota was better on offense as it put together ten hits but could only turn that into two runs and is now an even bigger road favorite here than the first game. Zack Greinke was able to limit the damage and the Royals are looking for Jordan Lyles who is making his Kansas City debut. He was not great with the Orioles last season but did have his best season since he was with the Brewers in 2019 and a new start against a lineup he has had success against in the past is a good start to the season. 10* (970) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
04-01-23 | Orioles +144 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Boston lost a tough one on opening day against Baltimore as it fell behind 10-4 and while it scored five runs in the eighth and ninth innings, it was not enough. The Red Sox are looking to rebound but are laying a massive number and one that looks like it should be the from the Cy Young days of Chris Sale and not the 34-yar old Sale who has barely pitched in three seasons. He was the opening day starter in 2018 and 2019 but has been sidelined with Tommy John surgery and a rib fracture and made only 11 starts the last three years. In the spring, his velocity has varied, while results have been shaky at best. Baltimore surprised most last season with a playoff push as the Orioles finished 83-79 and its +2,717 in profits were by far the most in all of baseball and are getting disrespected early again. This lineup is potent as it mashed out 15 hits on Thursday and should do damage again behind Dean Kremer who is part of a non-noteworthy yet high ceiling rotation. He put together a great season last year with a 3.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 21 starts and has seen a velocity increase with all pitches and has switched up his pitch mix. 10* (971) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
03-31-23 | Guardians +152 v. Mariners | Top | 9-4 | Win | 152 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Underdog Enforcer. The Guardians were shut down by the Seattle pitching on opening day as Luis Castillo and three relievers held them to just four hits and no runs in a 3-0 loss. Cleveland looks to get that back tonight against another solid pitcher in Robbie Ray who won the American League Cy Young in 2021 pitching for Toronto but saw his velocity decrease last season and his ERA went up by nearly a run. All indications are that his velocity is back to where it was two years ago and he is laying a big number against a dangerous offense that looks to break out after the shutout. The Mariners managed only three runs on Thursday against the Guardians bullpen which came on one swing from Ty France who hit a three-run home run to break a scoreless tie in the bottom of the ninth inning. Starter Shane Bieber was solid and Cleveland hopes to get a replication of that from Hunter Gaddis who earned the No. 2 spot in the rotation because of injuries and he will be making just his third start for the Guardians. On Saturday, he tossed 70 pitches in a minor league start so he has been stretched out and can go a while here as long as he remains effective against an offense that did not show much yesterday either. 10* (909) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
03-30-23 | White Sox +147 v. Astros | Top | 3-2 | Win | 147 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Underdog Enforcer. Dylan Cease, the 2002 Cy Young runner-up, get the ball on opening day and is catching a number that he will not see very often this season. He is one of the favorites to win the award this season and he looked in midseason form for his final start of the spring as he shutout Oakland over six innings. He is the perfect example why overall spring training stats should be discounted as pitchers do not care, unless they are trying to make a roster, as Cease finished with a 7.31 ERA but he was making tweaks and working on mechanics and is a big dog because of who he is playing. The Astros are the reigning World Series Champions and are significant favorites on opening day because of that in addition to their own starter who is coming off a great season as well. Framber Valdez finished last season with a 2.82 ERA over a career-high 201.1 innings while posting 194 strikeouts. This number has come down from -170 at opening to around -155 and Houston will be a highly bet team when the game gets closer once the public starts wagering. 10* (979) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
03-30-23 | Tigers +210 v. Rays | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Underdog Dominator. Tampa Bay made it into the Wild Card last season but made a quick exit as it lost both games against Cleveland as the offense managed only one run and scoring should be an issue this season. The Rays come in as the third highest opening day favorite based on last season and who they are playing but we will see a regression. Staff ace Shane McClanahan gets the ball for the opener after a breakout season last year but started to fatigue down the stretch and he tossed only 9.2 innings this spring so he will not be pushed too hard early on. Detroit finished 66-96 last season and its season win total is not much higher for this season but this is a talented, albeit young roster that will show some promise. The Tigers have gotten close to 70 percent of the early money in this game yet the line has slightly increased in some places from its -220 opening. Eduardo Rodriguez will be making his second straight opening day start and after missing two months last season to deal with personal issues, he has a chip on his shoulder and he proved that in the spring, allowing three runs over 18.1 innings. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
03-30-23 | Giants +171 v. Yankees | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Afternoon Underdog. The Yankees are always a highly public bet team and that is not going to change this season. We are seeing it opening day as New York opened -170 and the line is upwards of -180 in some places and this will be commonplace. Last season, the Yankees went 99-63 yet were on the wrong end of the money and they were the only division winner that did not make a profit. Gerrit Cole is the favorite to win the Cy Young award along with Jason deGrom in the American League and he will be solid but he was far from dominant last season with a 3.50 ERA while allowing a career high 33 home runs. The Giants went a disappointing 81-81 last season and unfortunately are stuck in the N.L. West with the Dodgers and Padres which both spent exuberant amounts of money and while no games have been played, a wild Card looks like the option early on. This is a solid roster that will be ready for a quick start behind Logan Webb who has quietly turned into an ace as over the last two seasons, he has posted a 2.93 ERA over the last two seasons covering 340.2 innings. 10* (985) San Francisco Giants | |||||||
11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Game of the Month. Houston was able to regain home field advantage by taking the two final games in Philadelphia and while it has what seems to be a big edge needing to take just one of two games at home but the Astros know well that is not so easy after losing the final two games of the 2019 World Series at home against Washington. The Astros came into the World Series on a nine-game winning streak including six straight home wins but showed their vulnerability in Game One and have another challenge against the Phillies bats that are ready to wake up even though the pitching for Houston looks unbeatable in this matchup. Framber Valdez had a fantastic season and has been great in the postseason but he does possess opposite home/road splits and while not expecting a blowup, it only takes a few with Houston going up against the Phillies ace. While the Phillies had the momentum after their Game Three 7-0 win where they smacked five home runs, it showed momentum does not mean a whole lot in the fall classic as they succumbed to a Game Four no-hitter and a heart-breaking loss in Game Five. Philadelphia is 5-3 on the road in the postseason so there is no fear of playing on the road. Zack Wheeler looks to put forth a better effort in Game Six after he allowed five runs, four earned, on six hits in just five innings in Game Two. He blamed it on arm fatigue but says he is better and the better news is that he tossed only 69 pitches and in his last four starts since mid-September after coming off a game throwing than fewer 80 pitches, he posted a 0.37 ERA over 24.1 innings so that last start could actually be a blessing. Here, we play on underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 batting .200 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games. this situation is 61-49 (55.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
11-03-22 | Astros -150 v. Phillies | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Astros came through for us on Wednesday with a combined no-hitter and we are backing them again as they clearly have the momentum going into Game Five and they now know they are heading back home which can give then an extra jolt. We played against Justin Verlander in Game One as he started strong with three shutout innings but was lit up for five runs over the next two frames as his World Series woes continue but like we saw at one point with Clayton Kershaw and his postseason demons that were shook, we can see that here with Verlander who is just too good to put up another dud. With the series now tied, there is not nearly the same pressure if Houston was down 3-1 in the series. The numbers do not lie as in eight career World Series starts, Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA and the linesmakers are clearly on his side for a rebound but the number is still fine to play. The Phillies dropped their first postseason game at home in the 5-0 loss as the bats went from knocking out five home runs to not being able to register a hit. A bounce back will be expected but it is not that easy especially against the best pitcher in baseball to go along with the best bullpen in baseball. Those five home runs on Tuesday were all hit off Lance McCullers who was tipping his pitches from his leg angle so no advantage like that will do them in here. Noah Syndergaard was scratched from his start in Game Three after a rainout and he comes back in Game Five what will essentially become a bullpen game as he will not be stretched as he has gone only 5.1 innings in the postseason while tossing only 68 pitches. The Houston bats had only one scoring inning in Game Four but have a shot to get out early here following a solid 10-hit performance on Wednesday. 10* (965) Houston Astros | |||||||
11-02-22 | Astros -101 v. Phillies | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Phillies on Tuesday as they used to long ball to pull away with an easy winner, hitting five home runs enroute to the 7-0 victory. That home run production will not be duplicated here and as much as we hate going against Philadelphia at home, this is a good spot for Houston for the offense to get back up after the shutout and coming off 10 runs in the first two games. The bats are top heavy in their lineup but for the most part have not produced as taking away the Game One performance from Kyle Tucker, the top four have gone 7-42 with just one home run and like the Phillies on Tuesday, they are ready to bust out. This is where we see the depth of the Astros rotation as the rainout benefitted Philadelphia to give the starters an extra day of rest so they are going back to their Game One starter while Houston is keeping the top two guys fresh as the No 4 guy could be a no. 1 for a lot of teams. Christian Javier was solid in his last start as he went 5.1 innings and allowed no runs at New York so the experience of succeeding in a tough road environment is a big advantage. He is not the best in home run allowance but not the worst either as over the last three seasons, he is ranked No. 20 in home run percentage among 76 pitchers that have thrown at least 300 innings. Aaron Nola struggled in Game One, allowing five runs in 4.1 innings that included a pair of home runs and he has allowed 11 runs on 13 hits in two postseason starts that covered nine innings which includes four home runs. Houston is 30-10 in 40 games against the money line after having lost two of their last three games this season and the Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (959) Houston Astros | |||||||
11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +113 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 113 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Phillies got what they wanted in the first two games and that is a split as they were able to gain home field advantage for the next five games and puts the Astros in a tough spot. While the NLCS series clincher was as clutch as it can get, the Game One win solidified what this team has accomplished over the second half of the season and that is to not give in as they rallied from a 5-0 deficit and got to Justin Verlander for five runs in the 6-5 victory. Philadelphia heads back home where the crowds have been incredible and the offense that has averaged 5.5 rpg over its last five games is putting up 5.0 rpg at home while hitting .262. The Phillies bullpen will be integral here as they did not allow a run on Saturday and have a 1.53 ERA over their last seven games as this is likely going to be mostly a bullpen game again even with Ranger Suarez getting the start after Noah Syndergaard got pushed out after the rainout and he is not expected to go very deep but has some relief experience. Philadelphia is 44-24 after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season. The Astros had their seven-game postseason streak come to an end in Game One and were able to hold on to another 5-0 lead in Game Two, eventually winning 5-2. While they have been a great team on the road this season, this is not a spot to be favored in by this much. The offense is hitting just .237 away from home while averaging 4.5 rpg and that offense has struggled with a .225 average over the last seven days. Lance McCullers was solid in his opening playoff start against the Mariners but struggles in his second one as he allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits and one walk over five innings in Game Four of the ALCS against the Yankees. 10* (958) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
10-28-22 | Phillies +156 v. Astros | Top | 6-5 | Win | 156 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After a lengthy time off, baseball is back as the World Series opens on Friday with Houston hosting Philadelphia in Game One. The Astros have cruised in the postseason as they have not lost, going 7-0 so they are going to be ridden by many until they lose and we are banking on that in Game One. Six of those seven wins were by one or two runs so some of them could have gone either way but Houston has been clutch when needed but the same can be said for the other side. Justin Verlander gets the ball for the opener and he has had a season for the ages as Tommy John surgery did not deter him as he has posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 30 starts with Houston going 22-8 in those games and this will be just his fourth start this month so while he is rested, it might be a little too much. The one negative on his side is his World Series history as he is 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA in seven starts and while each situation is different, he is facing a red hot offense that has destroyed some elite pitching in the postseason. The Phillies are 7-2 in the playoffs and no win was more clutch than the NLCS clincher on a two-run home run from Bryce Harper to eliminate the Padres. Aaron Nola has also had an outstanding season but he was bit by some bad luck as despite a 3.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, he was hit with 14 losses but most of the damage was done early in the season when the Phillies were playing bad as the lost eight of his first nine starts. In three postseason starts, he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with an 18:3 K:BB ratio. Philadelphia is 31-13 against the money line after a win by two runs or less this season. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 59-36 (62.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
10-22-22 | Padres -102 v. Phillies | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Padres lost home field advantage with a split in the first two games at home and now have put themselves in a bigger hole as they now face a potential must win scenario to avoid a 3-1 series deficit. San Diego has to get off to a strong start here as they have fallen behind in all three games. The Padres are hoping they get the Mike Clevinger that pitched six innings and allowed just one run in his regular-season finale against the White Sox and not the prior one who struggled for a few starts prior to that or the one that allowed four runs in 2.2 innings against the Dodgers in the NLDS. He has not pitched great on the road this season but the Padres are 9-5 in his 14 road starts. Sean Manea is the likely guy behind him which could create some good matchups. The Padres are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. The Phillies are in excellent position but facing a team with its back against the wall will be a challenge in what could be a tough pitching matchup and will again come down to the bullpens. Philadelphia improved to 50-34 at home including a perfect 3-0 in the postseason which included a pair of blowout wins over the Braves to clinch the NLDS. Bailey Falter will make his postseason debut in what will essentially become a bullpen game for the Phillies. He struggled at home this season with a 5.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in seven starts and this is where the Padres have to strike first. The Phillies are 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (901) San Diego Padres | |||||||
10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +103 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 103 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Philadelphia was able to earn the split in San Diego and grab home field advantage and the Phillies looked to be on their way to a 2-0 series lead but blew a 4-0 lead in Game Two. The Padres have the momentum from that victory but Philadelphia is back home and it will be a crazy environment for its first NLCS home game since 2010. The Phillies are 49-34 at home and with the recent schedule, this is just their third home game since September 25, a span of 19 games and since a five-game losing streak, they are 10-4 over their last 14 games. this is an important small stretch as they enter the middle of the starting rotation after Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola went in the first two games in San Diego. Ranger Suarez will make his second start of the postseason after struggling with his command in Game One of the NLDS against the Braves, allowing a career-high five walks in just 3.1 innings but limited the damage to just one run. The Padres have been a solid road team this season with a 48-38 record including a 3-2 record in the playoffs. Following the news of the suspension of Fernando Tatis, Jr., San Diego could have folded but have definitely played some of their best baseball since late August. Joe Musgrove has been a horse all season and it has continued in the postseason as he has allowed two runs over 13 innings. He was outstanding against the Mets in the Wild Card round, and against the Dodgers in the NLDS, he allowed just two runs. He opened the season with 12 straight starts of going at least six innings and allowing two or fewer earned runs but then allowed six runs in six innings in start No. 13 which happened to come against the Phillies as he also gave up two home runs in that outing. 10* (972) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
10-20-22 | Yankees +146 v. Astros | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Game One might be considered a pitchers duel even though their were five home runs hit but all were solo shots which equated to nearly half of the total hits. That game stayed under by a run and the total is set for the same for Game Two and while we lost with the Yankees in the opener, these totals favor the dog, especially another sizeable one on the New York side. The Yankees have lost all four meetings in Houston this season but they have been by a combined six runs so any of those could have gone either way. Jameson Taillon did a decent job on Wednesday as he went 4.1 innings which was ok for the bullpen and the final three relievers threw a combined 30 pitches so all are back in play on Thursday. Luis Severino takes the hill for his fifth start after a long summer layoff and he is back to full form with his pitch counts increasing every start. He allowed three runs or less in all four starts and most important, he has not allowed a home run after allowing 14 home runs in his first 16 outings. His last three starts have been on the road so there is a comfort coming into this one. Houston has won six straight games and even though going up against a typically public backed New York team, which is the case here with early money around 70 percent on the Yankees, this line has seen a small jump the other way. The Astros bring in ace No. 2 in Framber Valdez and after an exceptional start to the season, he has not been at his best with a 3.56 ERA over his last seven starts. His best stuff has been on the road as he has a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 starts but he has a 3.54 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 14 home starts which is very respectable but not a good resume in this situation in the postseason against a team he has not pitched well against in two starts. 10* (961) New York Yankees | |||||||
10-19-22 | Yankees +171 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Yankees were bailed out by the rain on Monday as it gave them an extra day of rest to be able to put Nestor Cortes on the hill for Game Five and it paid off as New York won 5-1 as he put together five strong innings and turned it over to their strong bullpen. One big thing that many will shy away from New York is the travel aspect but that is not a concern even though how quick it is as these players have done this numerous times throughout the season so it is nothing different. New York is 43-40 on the road which certainly is not great and that does include three losses here back in July but they were by a combined four runs. Jameson Taillon gets the ball with an extra day of rest after being the original starter in Game Five and he was not good in relief in Game Two against the Indians. He allowed three hits and two runs without retiring a batter but it was his first ever relief appearance and his first ever postseason experience and that pressure is gone. Houston has had some added rest following a three-game sweep of the Mariners in the ALDS which could go either way but this late in the season, they will be ready. Still, the price is too high and even though the Houston ace is on the hill, a game of this magnitude at this stage with the two best teams in the league should be priced closer. Justin Verlander takes the hill for the Astros and he is a pitcher tough to go against but he could be in a vulnerable place right now. Since a brief stint on the injured list in late August/early September with a calf injury, he has struggled with his mechanics and that was no more apparent than in his last start as in the ALDS against the Mariners, he allowed six runs on 10 hits in just four innings in Game One that did result in a win but a fluky one. He is 0-3 with a 5.97 ERA in his last five postseason starts with his last playoff win coming in Game One of the 2019 ALDS. 10* (955) New York Yankees | |||||||
10-18-22 | Phillies +120 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our N.L. Game of the Week. This is not the matchup many were expecting in the NLCS as both Philadelphia and San Diego and coming off underdog series wins over the Braves and Dodgers respectively. The one thing that stands out is that not many people are going to see the end of this one which is unfortunate with the first pitch going at 8:00 ET. No one really should be surprised to see the Phillies here as they have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last few months after firing manager Joe Girardi as Philadelphia went on to post a .704 winning percentage in June and .600 or better in July and August. They are 43-42 on the road which is nothing special but have been much better over that second half and the bats dominated the series against the Braves as they scored 24 runs in four games and that was getting shutout in one of those. Zack Wheeler was responsible for that loss but not because he pitched bad as he allowed only four hits and three runs over six innings and he has now gone five straight starts of allowing three runs or less and has a 1.32 ERA in those games covering 27.1 innings. The Padres won a thrilling series against Los Angeles as they won the final three games after dropping the opener which includes a comeback in Game Four after trailing 3-0 going into the bottom of the seventh inning. They do have momentum and the advantage of not having to travel but both are insignificant as travel has been the norm all season for all teams. Yu Darvish has been very good as well as he has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts but has not been as dominant as he has given up three runs exact in half of those starts. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after allowing three runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring eight runs or more in two straight games. this situation is 31-14 (68.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies | |||||||
10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -103 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Seattle got back into the postseason for the first time in 21 years and after playing its first four games on the road, the Mariners are back home for their first postseason game here since October 18, 2001. Winning this series already down 2-0 will be a longshot but stealing one game at home is more than doable after a pair of agonizing losses to open the series in Houston so the Mariners will be playing for their postseason lives in the best-of-five series. They hand the ball to rookie George Kirby who had a great season with a 3.39 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 25 starts with Seattle going 16-9 in those games. His first postseason start comes a week after he made his postseason debut in the series-clinching victory at Toronto and picked up the save. His home numbers are nearly identical and he has been limited down the stretch with just 13.1 innings over the last three weeks so he will be fresh and the postseason experience, albeit limited, will take the pressure off here. Houston is Houston so we know what to expect and while the Astros were great on the road, this is certainly not an easy spot and they will definitely be hearing it from the sold out crowd and even more so in the playoffs. Lance McCullers will be making only his ninth start this season since getting back in the rotation in August and he has been really good but most of the success has been at home where he has a 1.50 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five starts. In three road starts however, he has a 3.57 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Here, we play against road teams with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five games, in October games. this situation is 34-10 (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Seattle Mariners | |||||||
10-14-22 | Guardians +140 v. Yankees | Top | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Divisional Series Game of the Year. Cleveland dropped the series opener 4-1 despite outhitting the Yankees 6-5 but if there is any good news, the bullpen went only three innings which is big after needing nine innings from the relivers on Saturday to take out Tampa Bay in 15 innings. Adding the day on Wednesday and the bullpen is rested and ready if needed but that should not be the case here with their ace back on the hill. The Guardians are 46-36 on the road which has equated to +16.4 units of profit and they have been great against left-handed starters by going 30-17 for +16.8 units of profit while hitting a solid .255. Shane Bieber tossed a gem against the Rays as he went 7.2 innings, allowing only one run on three hits while striking out eight and walking one. He has allowed two runs or less in 12 of his last 14 starts and he has slightly positive reverse road/home splits. The Yankees bats remain quiet as over the last 12 games, they have averaged just 3.5 rpg, scoring three runs or less seven times. They have been great at home with a 58-24 record but the units have not correlated with that based on the high moneylines and while this one is not that big, being favored over one of the best pitchers in the American League is a tough spot no matter where it is. Nestor Cortes was fantastic this season with a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 28 starts with New York going 19-9 and while the Yankees have won the last four, they were all against non-playoff teams. On the season, New York was only 7-6 against teams that made the postseason. Here, we play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .190 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. this situation is 147-85 (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (965) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -123 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Phillies have gotten off to a great start in their first playoff appearance in 11 years as after sweeping the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, they held off Atlanta with a 7-6 Game One victory. That was a big win on the road in the opener but we expect the Braves to tie the series up which is arguably a must win game. Philadelphia is now 43-41 on the road and this will be their 14th straight road game after going 7-6 in the first 13 games and the offense has been up and down as it has scored three runs or less in seven of those and has averaged only 3.7 rpg over that stretch. Zack Wheeler has been on a solid run with a 0.52 ERA over his last three starts which is keeping this line attainable. His ERA on the road is 3.54 which is decent but it is two runs more than his ERA at home. The Braves are 13-7 over their last 20 games after failing to make the comeback on Tuesday and even though it was a loss, being down 7-1 and nearly coming back has to give them some positive vibes. Top starter Max Fried was lit up pretty good but the bullpen closed with four straight shutout innings with only one of the four relievers going more than 1.1 innings so most everyone will be available. The Braves are 55-27 at home and have profited over 12 units with big series sweep against the Mets to take over the division and put them in this position. Kyle Wright gets the ball after a great regular season where he went 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 30 starts with Atlanta going 24-6 in those games. This includes nine straight wins for the Braves. 10* (932) Atlanta Braves | |||||||
10-07-22 | Padres v. Mets -130 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -130 | 37 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. For the Mets, the season came down to three games and the setup was near flawless as they had a one-game lead over the Braves in the National League East heading into their weekend series on Friday with their three aces on the hill with the lone disadvantage being all three games were on the road. The result was three losses. New York went from a first round bye and hosting the NLDS to having to win a Wild Card series and hitting the road in the NLDS should it survive the Padres. The good news is the Mets were able to waste the back end of the rotation against the Nationals and have the top three starters ready here with extended rest and it starts with Max Scherzer who ended up taking the loss against Atlanta in the second game of that series which halted a run of four straight starts of allowing one run or less as he allowed four runs on nine hits, tied for second most allowed this season, and allowed two home runs. His 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP would have been good enough for No. 3 and tied for No. 1 in the National League respectively among qualified starters and his 145.1 innings pitched fell just under 17 innings short. He has been great over his last two postseasons with a 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 10 games and eight starts covering 46.2 innings. San Diego closed the season on a nine-game homestand where it went 4-5 and while winning was the goal, losing more would not have been bad as going to St. Louis would have been a lot better than going to New York. Yu Darvish has been on a solid run as he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts and his recent stretch is giving some value to the Mets as he came here on July 22 to face the Mets and Scherzer and closed as a +175 underdog which shows the significant line difference. 10* (940) New York Mets | |||||||
10-05-22 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The final day of the regular season is usually filled with some sort of drama somewhere but that is not the case this season as with the Braves winning the National League East last night, all playoff spots and seeds have been determined and even the Aaron Judge home run chase has come to an end. Most teams are getting ready for the offseason including Chicago and Cincinnati and we are basing this one on a significant starting pitching matchup advantage for the Cubs that would like to end the season the way it came into this series. Chicago was on an 11-1 run coming into Monday but has lost the first two games of this series 3-1 and 3-2 but even with that , the pitching remains on a strong close as the Cubs have allowed three runs or less in nine straight games, allowing just 1.7 rpg over that stretch. Adrian Sampson can keep that streak going as he has allowed two runs or less in seven straight games, posting a 1.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over that stretch, covering 39.3 innings and the last five all being quality outings. He has a 2.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 road starts. Cincinnati came into the series on a 1-9 run but somehow was able to find ways to win the first two games as the offense remains in neutral by scoring three runs or less in 12 straight games, averaging 2.0 rpg over that stretch and now face the Cubs most consistent pitcher down the stretch. It has not been the same for Graham Ashcraft as it has been for Sampson as he has struggled down the stretch with a 12.15 ERA over his last two starts which came after taking a month off as he was on the injured list due to biceps soreness. His rehab did not go well as he allowed 10 runs on 15 hits and a walk while striking out 11 in 5.2 innings over two appearances so the final month has not gone as planned. 10* (957) Chicago Cubs | |||||||
10-04-22 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Brewers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Game of the Week. Despite a 6-5 series opening win in extra innings, Milwaukee was eliminated from playoff contention with the Phillies winning on Monday so a once promising season ended in disappointment with two games remaining. The Brewers were locked into first place in the National League Central for the early part of the season and got into a horrible stretch starting in early July and ending in late August and while the division was probably lost for a while, the Wild Card was right there so there is zero interest in the final two games. Eric Lauer has had a decent season with a 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 28 starts but his command has suffered down the stretch and he has not been going far in games. Milwaukee has lost five of his last eight starts. Arizona has lost two straight games and five of its last seven and while also just playing out the string, it has been for a while and the future looks bright here from a team that has played hard even after being well out of it. The Diamondbacks are now 33-46 on the road but are even in money as they got some big numbers along the way and while that is not the case tonight, it is for a reason. Zac Gallen has been outstanding as he is a Cy Young contender and while he will not win in, being in the conversation is exceptional when playing on a poor team. He has a 2.51 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through 30 starts and he has gone 16 straight starts without allowing more than three runs. He has been his best down the stretch with a 1.06 ERA and 0.65 WHIP over his last 10 starts and his home/road splits are nearly identical. Here, we play on National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 43-19 (69.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
10-03-22 | Blue Jays -130 v. Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our A.L. East Game of the Month. Toronto can lock up the No. 1 Wild Card seed in the American League as its magic number is three games so any combination of wins and Seattle losses gets it that slot but with the Mariners finishing with four games against Detroit, Toronto needs to worry about itself. The Blue Jays have won three straight games after sweeping Boston, a team record 16 wins against the Red Sox, to finish 47-34 at home which is eighth best in baseball but it is their road record that has gotten them back into the postseason. They are 43-35 on the road and are on the plus side in units and has a good matchup here with Jose Berrios on the hill as he has faced Baltimore three times and has thrown three quality outings while posting a 3.31 ERA in those games. Toronto is 26-8 against the money line in its last 34 games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. Baltimore was eliminated from the postseason last week but it was still an unreal season as it because the first team since 1900 to finish .500 or better a season after finishing the previous season with 110 or more losses. Pretty impressive stuff and the Orioles come in in a bit of a slump as they have lost six of their last nine games and this is now the 11th straight games they have been underdogs so they still are not getting a lot of respect but this number is fair and probably should be higher with the stakes at hand. Dean Kreamer has been very solid this season since hitting the rotation in June and will be a big commodity in this rotation for a while. He has eight straight starts of allowing three or fewer runs but he catches this offense at the wrong time that put up 25 runs against the Red Sox over the weekend. Here, we play against American League home underdogs with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. This situation is 54-18 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
10-01-22 | White Sox -105 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The White Sox are playing out the string after having been eliminated from playoff contention earlier this week and they have now won two straight games following an eight-game losing streak starting with a home sweep at the hands of the Guardians which essentially put the nail in the coffin. Chicago is 43-36 on the road which is 7.5 games better than its record at home. This will be the final start of the season for Dylan Cease as he makes one more push for the American League Cy Young but could be a little too far behind Justin Verlander. He has a 2.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts that includes a 1.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 road starts with the White Sox going 10-3 in those games. Over his last six outings, he has allowed three runs just once and has a 1.35 ERA in those six games. The Padres have lost three straight games and are still holding onto the second place spot in the National League Wild Card standings, a game and a half ahead of the Phillies and two games ahead of the Brewers which are in fourth place. San Diego is just 41-35 at home which is the worst home record of all teams in the league either already in the postseason or still fighting for a playoff spot. Mike Clevinger came onto the scene later than usual following a year and a half off because of an injury and started off great but he has faded and coming off an awful September. He posted a 7.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts last month and will not be asked to do much here. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .260 or less and starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing going up against a National League starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (981) Chicago White Sox | |||||||
09-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -130 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. San Francisco is not going away without a fight as it has now won four straight games following a sweep over Colorado and has taken nine of its last 10 games to get back to .500 on the season. The Giants playoff hopes were next to nothing two weeks ago and while they are still slim, the possibility remains as they trail the Phillies by 5.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the National League with six games left and they also have the Brewers to deal with who are just a half-game out but nonetheless, San Francisco remains in must win mode and have a good pitching matchup at a good price. Alex Cobb had a streak snapped of 10 straight starts of allowing three runs or less after allowing five runs five runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks so there is some revenge in play as well. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 15 home starts. Arizona is coming off an day off on Thursday following a 5-2 win at Houston and Justin Verlander which snapped a two-game losing streak. The Diamondbacks are 32-43 on the road as the offense has struggled away from home, hitting .226 which is the fifth lowest average in baseball while averaging just 4.3 rpg. The offense overall has not been able to bust out as Arizona has scored more than five runs only once over the last 17 games, averaging just 3.1 rpg over that stretch. Merrill Kelly has had a great season with a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 31 starts but he has started to fade down the stretch as he has posted a 4.15 ERA over his last six starts, allowing four runs or more in half of those. Here, we play on National League road teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. this situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants | |||||||
09-29-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -113 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Seattle picked up a big win and a lot of help last night as it defeated the Rangers 3-1 while all of the other three Wild Card contenders lost. The Mariners are two games behind Toronto for first place and a half-game behind Tampa Bay for second place while sitting 4.5 games ahead of Baltimore whose hopes are fading. Seattle is 40-33 at home and it has won 25 of its last 39 games at home after a slow 15-19 start. The Mariners continue to pound right-handed pitching and on the season they are 65-50 against righty starters compared to being a game under .500 against southpaws at 19-20. Marco Gonzales takes the hill for Seattle and he has been a consistent rotation presence throughout the season and he has been great at home with a 3.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts and is catching an excellent number. Texas is really struggling here at the end of the season as it has lost 21 of its last 29 games including losses in 10 of 14 road game. The latter comes after a good start where the Rangers pitching was carrying part of the load but they have allowed 4.6 rpg over that 14-game road stretch. Jon Gray is getting his fourth start since coming back into the rotation and he has been eased back as he has tossed only 13 innings and the Rangers are not going to stretch him this late in the season and that can be an issue with the Rangers bullpen that has a 4.55 ERA over the last seven days. He has a 6.35 ERA in two starts against Seattle this season. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. this situation is 70-48 (59.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Seattle Mariners | |||||||
09-28-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers -140 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Game of the Week. With the 6-2 win on Tuesday, St. Louis clinched the National League Central championship which gave the Cardinals the season series against the Brewers which clinched the tiebreaker for the division title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. With everything locked up, the Cardinals will be sitting starters after the celebrations from Tuesday night so this is a big one to get on early as this line will be going up considering the Brewers are still playing for something. It has been a great run since the start of August as the division flipped by 11.5 games but with everything in place, Jose Quintana is in a vulnerable spot. The has been the best starter in the rotation since late July as he has allowed two runs or less in 12 straight starts but this is the one to go against as he will be limited in most likelihood. Milwaukee was on a 4-1 run prior to Tuesday and with the remaining schedule all being at home, there was positive momentum but now with the division gone, the Brewers have a shot at the Wild Card still. They are a game and a half being the Phillies for the third spot and with every game after this against losing teams, this is a big game to get that momentum back. Brandon Woodruff has been on a roll of his own as he has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 13 outings including four straight. In his 11 home starts, he has a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with Milwaukee going 10-1 in those games. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 76-25 (75.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Kansas City and Detroit are fighting it out for the worst record in the American League Central with the Tigers two and a half games behind the Royals and both come into this series playing well of late. Kansas City has won five of its last six games and concluded its home schedule in epic style as it rallied from an 11-2 deficit in the sixth inning to pull out a 13-12 victory. The Royals are on the road for their final nine games on the road where they are 24-48 on the season and down over 12 units of profit. Zack Greinke has been one of the better pitchers at home with a 2.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 12 outings but on the road he has a 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 12 starts with the Royals going just 3-9 in those games. Detroit has also won five of its last six games following a road sweep against the White Sox over the weekend. The Tigers return home where they have been far from good 30-45 but even with the poor road situation for the Royals, this number is lower than it should be as the power ratings has this one priced out at -130. Joey Wentz gets the ball for the Tigers and he has been solid since coming back into the rotation as in three starts, he has posted a 1.10 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 16.1 innings. This includes 6.2 shutout innings against the Royals earlier this month. Detroit is 24-6 against the money line in its last 30 home games off two straight road wins against a division rival. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 3.9 or more rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. this situation is 39-17 (69.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
09-26-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. All eyes will be in Toronto starting tonight with the Aaron Judge home run record chase as he failed to get it done against the Red Sox at home. The Yankees have won seven straight games with the last six coming at home and they enter the week with a 38-36 record on the road while dropping 12.6 units in those games. New York can clinch the division but that is likely it as it is six games behind the Astros for the best record in the American League. Luis Severino has put together a solid season with a 3.36 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and those numbers regress slightly on the road but this will be just his second start since mid-July after re-entering the rotation. Toronto was riding a three-game losing streak but won two huge games in Tampa Bay on Saturday and Sunday to increase its lead in the Wild Card standings to two games over the Rays and that is a big spot that comes with home field advantage in the first round. The Blue Jays are 43-32 at home and while they are down over 15 units of profit, that is due to the overpricing of lines at home and that is not the case tonight. Kevin Gausman had a pair of poor starts against the Rangers and Rays but bounced back with a great game at the Phillies where he tossed six shutout innings while allowing only five hits and striking out eight. He has allowed only two runs in two starts against the Yankees this season covering 12.2 innings. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.9 or more rpg on the season, after three straight wins by two runs or less. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
09-23-22 | Tigers +164 v. White Sox | Top | 5-3 | Win | 164 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Chicago is coming off a big series with Cleveland but it came up small, getting swept in the three-game set at home and the White Sox are now seven games behind the Guardians in the American League Central. With their playoff hopes now dashed, they are 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, this has turned into a dead series for Chicago. The White Sox are 35-40 at home and down over 20 units in profit because of lines like these. Lucas Giolito is coming off a decent outing against Detroit last time out where he allowed only one run but was not able to make it out of the fifth inning. He has struggled here with a 6.61 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 home starts. Detroit won two of three games in Baltimore to start this roadtrip following a 1-6 run that including two of three losses against the White Sox last weekend. The Tigers bullpen remains one of the better ones in thee league as they possess a 3.53 ERA. Detroit is catching another great price and despite being 20 games under .500 on the road, they are just -4.5 units thanks to big underdog lines similar to this one. Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off a quality outing in his last start and with the exception of a couple poor starts against Seattle and Houston, he has been solid since coming back into the rotation. Overall, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 coming off three straight losses against division opponents. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Colorado is coming off a pair of losses to open this series as it dropped the Monday game in extra innings and lost last night despite outhitting the Giants. The Rockies are now 40-36 at home and are at +10.9 units of profit as they continue to be a solid team at home where the offense is light years ahead of the road production despite last night where they managed only three runs but still had 10 hits. German Marquez got thumped by Arizona two starts back but he has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 12 starts and while his home numbers are not great, the Rockies are 9-6 in his 15 home outings. The Giants snapped a three-game slide with the Monday victory and has now won two in a row to move to 71-77 on this disappointing season. On the road, San Francisco is 32-41 and down -13.4 units of profit where the pitching has struggled with a 4.36 ERA, tenth worst in baseball. The bats have picked it up in Colorado but this is not a feared lineup that the Rockies needs to be concerned with. Logan Webb has taken a slight step back of late as he had a 2.77 ERA through July 22 but has posted an ERA of 3.59 over his last 10 starts which is still good but not like he was. He allowed more than three runs only twice in his first 20 starts but has allowed more than three runs in three of these last 10 outings. Here, we play against National League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 45-26 (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Play (958) Colorado Rockies | |||||||
09-21-22 | Mariners v. A's +187 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 187 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The Mariners lost three of four in Los Angeles and lost the series opener last night to fall to 42-34 on the road and this is now the sixth game of a 10-game roadtrip and sixth game of their final 21 games all against teams with losing records as they by far have the easiest stretch of closing games of teams competing for a playoff spot. Obviously, winning those games is a different story and Seattle has not gotten off to a great start in trying to do so and it now sits two and a half games behind Toronto and a half game behind Tampa Bay in the American League Wild Card. Robbie Ray is not close to his Cy Young ability from last season as he has gone in spurts and is in the middle of a bad one and staying on the road is not ideal as he has a 5.08 ERA in 13 road outings. Oakland is now 4-4 over its last eight games with all four wins at +150 or higher and it can tack on another one here as it continues to play the role of spoiler. The offense has been hitting it well during this recent stretch as the Athletics are averaging 5.1 rpg over the eight games which is far ahead of what the offense has done the entire season so something is clicking. The overall numbers for James Kaprielian are not great but that is due to a rough start to the season and over his last 14 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of those, posting a 3.77 ERA over that stretch. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -175 or more batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. this situation is 34-25 (57.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
09-20-22 | Twins v. Royals +115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 115 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City is coming off a rough roadtrip where it went 1-5 but is now back home where it does show signs of life where it is 34-41 compared to a 28-48 record on the road. The offense is what has been the difference as the Royals are hitting .230 on the road, third lowest in the American League but are hitting .254 at home, tied for fourth in the league and they have scored 23 more runs at home than on the road in only three fewer games. Zack Greinke has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts and he has been masterful at home with a 1.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 11 starts with the Royals going 8-3 in those games. The Twins lost four out of five games in Cleveland culminated by an 11-4 thrashing on Monday and they are now out of time as that was the most important series of the season and they blew it. They trail the Guardians by seven games in the American League Central and they are too far back in the Wild Card race. The psyche of this team could be at a season low right now. Dylan Bundy has been inconsistent all season as he has a 4.68 ERA overall including a 5.93 ERA in 15 road starts with Minnesota going 5-10 in those games. He faced Kansas City in his last start and lasted only four innings where he allowed two runs on four hits. Here, we play on home underdogs after a game where they had at least 10 fewer hits than their opponent, after a game where the bullpen allowed five or more earned runs. This situation is 36-27 (57.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
09-20-22 | Tigers +178 v. Orioles | Top | 3-2 | Win | 178 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Detroit bats came out on Monday as the Tigers erupted for 14 hits in an 11-0 shutout that also included great pitching from starter Tyler Alexander. That snapped a 1-6 run from the Tigers that are battling it our with Kansas City and Oakland for not having the worst record in the American League. Detroit is catching another great price and despite being 20 games under .500 on the road, they are just -5.2 units thanks to numbers like these. Joey Wentz has made two starts since re-entering the rotation and he has been solid with a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over 10.2 innings while allowing no runs in his lone road outing. Baltimore is now 3-5 over its last eight games and 5-9 over its last 14 games so while after a great run to get into the playoff picture, it has fallen off at the wrong time. The Orioles are now five games behind Seattle for third place in the Wild Card standings with both teams having 16 games left and the Mariners holding the tiebreaker. They have been solid at home with a 41-31 record but the loss last night was a crusher. Austin Voth takes the hill for the Orioles has been an consistent as they come but he was limited to 7.1 innings over his last two starts and is now pitching 10 days between starts following a relief appearance so this signals a dead arm. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 58-34 (63 percent) since 1997. 10* (917) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
09-19-22 | Mariners v. Angels +120 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our A.L. West Game of the Month. The Mariners have dropped the first three games of this series to fall to 41-33 on the road and this is now the fourth game of a 10-game roadtrip and fourth game of their final 21 games all against teams with losing records as they by far have the easiest stretch of closing games of teams competing for a playoff spot. Obviously, winning those games is a different story and Seattle has not gotten off to a great start in trying to do so and it now sits two games behind Toronto and a game and a half behind Tampa Bay in the American League Wild Card. Logan Gilbert has been one of the aces of the staff this season as he has a 3.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 29 starts and over his last five starts, he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and going back further, the Mariners have won just four of his last 10 starts following a run where they went 9-1 over his previous 10 outings. The Angels have won three straight and 12 of their last 21 games as they have shown a big return with only one of those losses coming when they were favored and overall are +6.1 units in profit. Los Angeles has won five of its last six home games with the offense average a solid 5.7 rpg and the pitching giving up just 3.0 rpg. Jose Suarez has been pitching just as good as Gilbert as he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts going back to mid-July after getting roughed up by the Dodgers and he has posted a 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over those eight recent starts. This includes a 1.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in four home starts with the Angels going 3-1 in those games. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 3.9 or fewer rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. this situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
09-16-22 | Yankees v. Brewers +112 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 112 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have won four straight games and eight of their last 10 and they now have a 6.5-game lead over Toronto in the American League East with 19 games remaining. The offense has picked it up over this recent four-game streak as they have averaged 8.0 rpg but do have a difficult matchup here. They are 6.5 games behind Houston for the best record in the American League and New York is 37-34 on the road and down -11.2 units because of swing games like this. Frankie Montas struggled in his last start against Tampa Bay and he has been very inconsistent of late as over his last seven starts, he has a 5.95 ERA and 1.54 WHIP and has struggled on the road this season with a 5.20 ERA over 10 starts. Milwaukee once controlled the National League Central for a good majority of the season but the Brewers are now 7.5 games behind the Cardinals and the only hope now is catching a Wild Card spot which will be a challenge. They are 1.5 games behind San Diego for the final spot and four games behind Atlanta for the No. 2 spot and they come in with a 5-2 run including 4-1 at home while going 12-5 over their last 17 games at American Family Field. Adrian Houser got back into the rotation two starts back and has been good as he has a 1.63 ERA over 11 innings and he has been good at home with a 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in eight starts. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. this situation is 66-46 (58.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (930) Milwaukee Brewers | |||||||
09-14-22 | Rays v. Blue Jays -110 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our A.L. East Game of the Month. Toronto and Tampa Bay are coming off a split of their double-header on Tuesday and the Blue Jays have a 2-1 lead in this all-important five-game series and now must face the two aces in the final two games of the set. Tampa Bay broke a three-game losing streak with a win in the double-header opener but gave it back in the nightcap and this 1-4 run has followed a 20-5 which got the Rays to where they are. The schedule was in their favor as of those 25 games, 16 were at home where they went 14-2 and in the nine road games, four were against the slumping Yankees and the other five came against non-playoff teams Boston and Miami. Drew Rasmussen would be the ace on most other teams but he is second in line here and he has been great with a 1.62 ERA in his last nine start with Tampa Bay going 8-1 so this can be considered a contrarian play against him but his opponents has been nearly as good. Toronto has a half-game lead over Tampa Bay and Seattle for the top Wild Card in the American League and the top seed is a big one as that team will host all three games in the Wild Card round. The Blue Jays have made a run at the right time as they were on the outside looking in for a couple days but have gone 19-8 over their last 27 games to leapfrog all three teams. They are 40-30 at home compared to Tampa Bay being 32-38 on the road. Ross Stripling has quietly put together five straight quality starts and he has allowed three runs or less in 15 straight outings, posting a 2.55 ERA over that stretch with Toronto going 11-4 so the fact he is a slight favorite is no surprise based on the home/road records of the two teams. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 74-30 (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays | |||||||
09-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +148 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Yankees are back to their winning ways following a disaster few weeks as they have won six of their last eight games including a big series win over Tampa Bay this past weekend which kept the Rays at bay in the American League East. New York hits the road against its biggest rival and while this game is meaningless for playoff implications, anything can happen. New York is 35-34 on the road and down -13.2 units because of swing games like and while their ace is on the hill, nothing is certain. Gerit Cole has been very good but not great with a 3.20 ERA on the season including a 3.43 ERA in 13 road starts and Fenway has not been a great place as he has a 5.45 ERA in seven starts, his highest ERA in any park with more than four starts. Boston took two of three at Baltimore after getting swept in Tampa Bay and it heads back home with nothing to play for expect spoiler. The Red Sox have won six of their last seven home games to get over .500 on the season and get a great price here. Nick Pivetta has made some positive adjustments after an awful July where he had a 9.38 ERA but he has a 3.68 ERA over his last seven starts and he has allowed three runs or less in six of those seven starts. Here, we play on home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 after scoring two runs or less going up against an opponent after scoring nine runs or more. This situation is 44-29 (60.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Boston Red Sox | |||||||
09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +197 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. After a 7-0 series opening loss Monday, Detroit has lost nine of its last 13 games as its offense has not shown much of late either, getting shutout over its last two games which followed a four-game run where it put up an average of 6.7 rpg. The Tigers have not been good at home as they are 29-41 but have won their share of big underdog games as they are down -6.4 units despite the 12-game differential in the record. This is where the value is though and Drew Hutchison adds to that. He has pitched very solid of late as he has a 3.27 ERA over his last eight starts and has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 14 outings overall with Detroit winning his last three starts. The Astros have won two straight games and nine of their last 12 to increase their lead in the American League to six games over the Yankees for the best record and home field in the playoffs. Houston is 44-28 on the road but just +7.7 units in profit with some of those 28 losses being as big favorites and that is the case here despite a starting pitcher making just his second ever start. Hunter Brown is coming off a great Major League debut against Texas, allowing three hits while striking out five batters over six scoreless innings. He walked only one batter after posting a 10.6 percent walk rate in the minors as control could remain an issue. Here, we play on home teams after getting shut out in two straight games. This situation is 110-65 (62.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
09-12-22 | Pirates +135 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 135 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our N.L. Central Game of the Month. The Pirates lost on Sunday to conclude a bad homestand where they went 2-7 so a trip on the road can only do some good. They are 23-45 on the road but down only 6.5 units as Pittsburgh has been the underdog the vast majority of the time and it is again here in what looks to be a more even matchup than what the line is telling us here. This is a bad offense overall but have averaged close to four rpg over their last six games which included one run in a two-game stretch against the Mets. Bryse Wilson takes the ball and he has been limited over his last few games after throwing 43, 56 and 77 pitches but it has steadily increased and after facing the Phillies, Brewers and Mets in those games, he gets a break facing a poor offense. The Reds also lost on Sunday as they lost to the Brewers 7-6 to put an end to a decent 3-1 run and Cincinnati is 5-6 over its last 11 games. They are 29-39 at home so there is no real edge here as the pitching has been the downfall. Cincinnati has a 4.86 ERA at home which is the second worst in all of baseball and an MLB low eight saves no thanks to a bullpen that has posted a 4.82 ERA. Taking the hill is Mike Minor who has pitched well of late but his best have been on the road as he has a 6.11 ERA in nine home starts where the Reds are 0-9 and he has just one quality outing in those nine games. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or more over his last three starts. This situation is 56-37 (60.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
09-09-22 | Guardians v. Twins -105 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our A.L. Central Sweet Spot. Cleveland and Minnesota open a crucial series on Friday with the Guardians holding onto a 1.5-game lead over the Twins and White Sox in the American League Central. Cleveland is coming off a series win against Kansas City but lost the finale and going back, it is 4-9 over its last 13 games as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Guardians have averaged only 2.1 rpg over those 13 games, scoring no runs or one run seven times and will not have an easy task tonight. On the mound for Cleveland is Cal Quantril who has a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season but has gotten somewhat inconsistent as he has allowed four runs or more in three of his last eight starts. Minnesota is coming off a win at New York which momentarily quelled a rough stretch of going 1-6 over its previous seven games. The Twins held the division lead for most of the season but it has been one month since they have seen first place when thy were tied with Cleveland on August 9. Minnesota is back home where it is 40-29 and is catching a good price with Dylan Bundy on the hill. He was pretty average for most of the season but has been on a roll as he has posted a 2.03 ERA over his last six starts and he has been very consistent at home all season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts with the Twins going 6-3 in those games. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and with a WHIP of 1.00 over his last five starts. This situation is 44-16 (73.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (972) Minnesota Twins | |||||||
09-07-22 | Diamondbacks +184 v. Padres | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our N.L. West Game of the Month. One of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month comes from an unexpected name and that is the Diamondbacks. They lost a tough one last night on a two-run walk off single but are still on an 18-11 run over their last 29 games and sometimes with nothing to play for, teams tend to play looser. Over the last 12 games, they are 9-3 with all of those games against the White Sox, Phillies, Brewers and Padres so they have not been facing any cupcakes in the process. Despite being 28-36 on the road, Arizona is still on the plus size in units thanks to numbers like this. Tommy Henry did not have a great Major League debut but put together four great starts after that and now coming off a rough outing against the Phillies, expect a bounce back from the No. 13 ranked prospect in the organization. San Diego has been nothing but average after a hot run right after the trade deadline when its World Series odds started falling and it has now gone 14-16 over its last 30 games yet is still being priced as the same team that went 5-0 the first five games. The Padres win was a big one last night for momentum if nothing else as they are long done in the National League West and are tied with the Phillies for the third Wild Card spot in the National League. Yu Darvish has been good but not great of late as while he is coming off seven shutout innings against the Dodgers, he still has a 3.35 ERA over his last six starts. That is very good but not at a price like this especially when San Diego has gone 3-3 in those six games. Here, we play against National League teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 44-29 (60.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (963) Arizona Diamondbacks | |||||||
09-06-22 | Guardians v. Royals +177 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland took the opener of this series last night in extra innings to snap a five-game losing skid and coupled with the Twins loss against the Yankees, the Guardians are back into sole possession of first place in the American League Central. They are now just 36-34 on the road and are still up a ton, +7.8 units of profit but most of that success was early on when they were getting big underdog pricing still before their resurgence in June. Shane Bieber takes the hill and he is what is he is and that is consistent. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts but Cleveland has lost his last three and is just 6-7 in his last 13 games. Kansas City dropped the opener of this homestand but has still played pretty well at home recently as it is 19-12 over its last 31 at home which is significant as it is +10.95 in units over those 31 games. Overall, the offense has been hitting it well as the Royals are averaging 5.9 rpg over their last 10 games. They turn to Kris Bubic who was coming off a couple poor outings but bounced back last time out and he has now allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 12 outings. Kansas City is 11-4 against the money line in his last 15 home games against American League teams with a team batting average of .260 or worse. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 42-26 (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
09-06-22 | Reds +149 v. Cubs | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Cubs are coming off a tough 2-7 roadtrip including getting swept at St. Louis over the weekend and they are now 56-78 which is just two games better than the Reds but they are being priced like they are significantly better which is not the case. Chicago is 28-38 at home which is only three games different that the road record of Cincinnati so the venue is not the difference. Wade Miley seems to be that difference but he has not made a start in close to three months and he will be on a short leash after throwing just 55 pitches in his last rehab start. The Cubs are 12-31 against the money line in their last 43 home games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games. Cincinnati is a respectable 5-4 over its last nine games with pitching playing a big role, allowing three runs or less in six of those games and an average of 4.1 rpg in those nine games. The offense has not been as strong but they are hitting .250 against lefty pitching this season. The overall and road records are certainly not great but there is an insignificant difference and Cincinnati has the pitching edge here. Justin Dunn has pitched well following a poor start against the Cubs as he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his last three starts and he has a bullpen behind him that has been throwing very well. Cincinnati is 11-2 against the money line in his last 13 starts when playing against a team with a losing record. Here, we play against teams off three straight losses against division rivals, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts. This situation is 89-61 (59.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds | |||||||
09-05-22 | Tigers +167 v. Angels | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Los Angeles lost two of three against Houston over the weekend and has opened this homestand with a 3-3 record and overall, the home field has killed the Angels. They are 29-39 and down +20.5 units of profit at home and the offense has struggled of late as they are averaging just 2.7 rpg on this homestand and going back, they have scored three runs or less in 15 of their last 22 home games. Jose Suarez has been pitching well of late as he has allowed three runs or less in his last six starts but this one again comes down to value. Since being favored against Baltimore back in April, the Angels have been underdogs in 10 of his last 12 starts and while they won those two exceptions, they were favored by just -120 in each of those games and now all of a sudden, he is being treated like a top line starter which is certainly not the case. The Angels are 10-21 against the money line in their last 31 games against American League teams with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in this season. Detroit has lost five of its last six games as its offense has not shown much of late either, averaging just 2.5 rpg over this six-game stretch which followed a four-game run where it put up an average of 8.0 rpg. The Tigers have not been good on the road as they are 22-43 but have won their share of big underdog games as they are down -8.3 units despite the 19-game differential in the record. Tyler Alexander gets the ball for the Tigers and since coming back into the rotation in late July, he has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He has not fared well on the road but in five road outings, only two have been poor and those were against two of the better home hitting teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Rangers. The Angels are hitting just 2.35 at home, the fourth lowest average in the American League. Detroit is 46-47 in its last 93 games against the money line against left-handed starters. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
09-04-22 | Twins +125 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 125 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our A.L. Central Game of the Month. The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series and have won four straight games and have closed the gap in the American League Central from six games to two games over those last four games. Sitting six games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League likely means division or bust. Chicago is now still a game under .500 at home and are down 13.5 units and while the hitting has been good here, the pitching has not despite the recent four games. One of the issues is Lucas Giolito who has had a rough season with a 5.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 24 starts including a 6.86 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 11 home starts and he is responsible for over 40 percent of the lost home profits. Minnesota has been all over the place as it won four straight, lost six straight, won five straight and has currently dropped three straight games. The Twins are still just one game behind Cleveland in the American League Central and still own the best scoring differential in the division. Dylan Bundy got off to a rough start this season but has rebounded well as he posted a 2.63 ERA in five August starts. This is his fourth start against Chicago this season and he posted a 2.34 ERA in the first three starts with the Twins winning all three of those games. Here, we play on American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging between 4.4 to 4.9 rpg and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. this situation is 54-25 (68.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins | |||||||
09-02-22 | Mariners v. Guardians +130 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Seattle is coming off a three-game sweep at Detroit to make it four straight wins and the Mariners have now won six of their last seven games to move into a tie with Tampa Bay for the first Wild Card spot in the American League, two games clear of Toronto. They are 38-30 on the road and while they were laying some big numbers in Detroit for obvious reasons, they are laying another sizable one here against a division leader due to who they have on the hill. Luis Castillo has been solid since coming over from Cincinnati as he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five starts and he is coming off a quality outing against the Guardians but it resulted in a loss. Cleveland lost against to Baltimore as it was shut out for a second straight game and it remains one game ahead of Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians have now lost five of their last seven games but the line value here is too much to pass up. They were favored over Baltimore by at least -40 in all three games and now come in as the underdog against a team that is just three and a half games better than the Orioles. Zach Plesac has put together a solid season and is coming off a quality outing against the Mariners in that game against Castillo. He has a 3.81 ERA in 10 home starts and this is just the second time in his last seven that he has been the underdog, the first coming against Houston. Here, we play against road teams after allowing three runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after getting shut out two straight games. This situation is 64-33 (66 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Cleveland Guardians | |||||||
09-01-22 | Mariners v. Tigers +152 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. Detroit has won five of its last nine games but has dropped the first two games of this series in its return home and despite being nine games under .500 here, the Tigers are down only three units because of numbers like this where there is no pitching disadvantage that warrants a number this big. We saw it last night as the hits were even and it was the normally reliable bullpen that was the difference for Detroit and another loss. Eduardo Rodriguez is back on the hill for his third start after coming back into the rotation following being put on the restricted list due to personal issues and he was gone for 90 days. In the first two starts after the return, he posted a 0.82 ERA covering 11 innings. Prior to this two-game winning start on the roadtrip, Seattle won three of four against Cleveland at home and has maintained its second place spot in the American League Wild Card and it is now 37-30 on the road and while up 12 units, most of that was early on when getting underdog numbers, not laying prices like this. The offense has been slumping as they are hitting .191 while averaging 3.9 rpg over their last seven games. Logan Gilbert has had a good season with a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 26 starts and his numbers are steady on the road but he has struggled of late as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last five starts and his strikeout count is way down as he has a 15:9 K:BB ratio after coming in with a 118:32 ratio prior to that. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 199-192 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +92.9. 10* (958) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
08-31-22 | Orioles +156 v. Guardians | Top | 4-0 | Win | 156 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. We lost with Baltimore on Tuesday but will turn around and play the Orioles again Wednesday for a lot of the same reasons with a lot of that being value. Baltimore has won five of its last eight games which included a series win at Houston over the weekend and the pitching has been outstanding during this run. Despite allowing five runs Tuesday, the Orioles have allowed just 2.9 rpg over this eight-game stretch and they are staying in contention in the American League Wild Card race as they are three games out of third place. The road has been a good place despite a 30-37 record as lines like this have given them a profit of +9.2 units. Cleveland got back into the win column after dropping three of four in Seattle to hold onto it game and a half lead over Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are 32-25 at home with a profit of just +4 units and are laying another big number here based on the starters. Triston McKenzie has had a solid season and like Quantril last night, he has been favored by -160 or more only three times in 23 starts, twice against Detroit and once against Oakland. Jordan Lyles has been pitching well with a 3.55 ERA over his last seven starts with Baltimore winning six. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 198-190 (51 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +94.4. 10* (915) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
08-31-22 | Astros v. Rangers +130 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Houston won the series opener last night to make it two straight win to keep its four-game lead over the Yankees in the American League. The Astros have won six of their last eight games and improved to 40-27 on the road but have netted just 4.7 units of profit and the offense has been average as they are hitting .239 which is tied for sixth lowest in the American League Christian Xavier has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts but there has not been much winning to show for it as Houston lost six of those eight games. The long ball has been a real issue as he has allowed nine home runs over this stretch after giving up just six all season prior and his K:BB ratio has come down by nearly one strikeout per game. the Astros are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a losing record. Texas has lost three straight games following a 5-1 run with all three of those losses coming at home where the Rangers are now 28-37 on the season and that is playing into this number. They are looking to get the offense going against as prior to last night, they averaged 6.3 rpg over their previous 10 games and including last night, they have averaged 5.8 rpg in their last five home games. Martin Perez will be out for some payback as he allowed seven runs in Houston in his last outing against the Astros four starts back and he has posted a 1.50 ERA in three starts since then. Overall, he has a 2.69 ERA over 25 starts with the Rangers going 17-8 in those games and Texas is 10-3 in his 13 starts this season after he has allowed two earned runs or less in two straight starts. 10* (914) Texas Rangers | |||||||
08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers +160 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Detroit has won five of its last seven games including a series win at Texas and it is back home where it has won three of its last four and despite being seven games under .500 here, the Tigers are down only one unit because of numbers like this where there is no pitching disadvantage that warrants a number this big. And especially with one of the better bullpens in baseball as they have a 3.42 ERA including a 3.36 ERA at home. Matt Manning re-entered the rotation to start the month and he has been great with a 2.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in five outings with two of his best starts coming at home but Detroit gave him no runs each time. Seattle won three of four against Cleveland at home and has maintained its second place spot in the American League Wild Card and it hits the road where it is 35-30 and while up 10 units, most of that was early on when getting underdog numbers, not laying prices like this. The offense has been slumping as they are hitting .184 while averaging 3.0 rpg over their last seven games. George Kirby gets the ball for Seattle and he has been very consistent, allowing three runs or less in eight straight starts and while three of those have been on the road, they have not been as efficient as he has a 4.11 ERA in those games over 15.1 innings. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start, after a game where the bullpen allowed six or more earned runs. This situation is 61-32 (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
08-30-22 | Orioles +140 v. Guardians | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland lost three of four games against Seattle and its lead in the American League Central has shrunk to a game and a half over the Twins. The Guardians are 32-25 at home with a profit of just +4 units and are laying a big number here because of the starter. Cal Quantril has quietly put together a very solid season as he has a 3.59 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts and those numbers are better at home and the contrarian aspect is to go against him here as the Guardians are 9-0 over his last nine starts. He has been favored by -150 or more three times and those were against Detroit twice and Arizona. Baltimore has won five of its last seven games which included a series win at Houston over the weekend and the pitching has been outstanding during this run. The Orioles have allowed just 2.6 rpg over this seven-game stretch and they are staying in contention in the American League Wild Card race as they are two games out of third place. The road has been a good place despite a 30-36 record as lines like this have given them a profit of +10.2 units. Spenser Watkins has been great since coming back into the rotation in late June as he has a 2.47 ERA over his last nine starts. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 197-189 (51 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +93.4. 10* (963) Baltimore Orioles | |||||||
08-29-22 | Yankees v. Angels +164 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 164 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees will be a very public bet tonight after losing their last two games in Oakland which snapped a five-game winning streak, cooling off what looked like could have been a possible big rebound run after an awful stretch. New York is just 33-30 on the road while down 9.9 units and the offense continues to struggle as they have scored four runs or less in 16 of their last 18 games, averaging 2.9 rpg over this stretch and they are No. 17 in baseball with a .241 average. Frankie Montas has been up and down of late as he has a 7.32 ERA over his last four starts and on the season, he has a 5.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in eight road starts. The Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a loss. The Angels got off to a 1-6 start on their roadtrip before a shocking three-game sweep in Toronto, outscoring the Blue Jays 22-3. Los Angeles returns home where it is 26-36 and down a ton of units but most of that was early in the season when it was still considered a contender and the lines are now reflecting the opposite of that. Jose Suarez had a rough start against the Dodgers in mid-July but he has been solid since then with a 1.93 ERA over his last five outings. The Angels are 4-1 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 70-24 (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
08-26-22 | Padres v. Royals +173 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City is off to a 2-1 start on its current homestand and going back, has won three of four here and overall has played pretty well at home. The Royals are 31-35 at home which is nothing great but they have dogs for most of the games and the offense has performed well here as they are hitting .256 at home which is fourth best in the American League. Kris Bubic had a 7.45 ERA through June, covering 11 starts but he has been great over the last two months with a 3.81 ERA over his last 10 starts and while his last two have been average, those were on the road. Over his last four home starts, he has a 2.96 ERA with Kansas City winning three of those four games. San Diego is coming off a 2-4 homestand and going back, it is 3-6 over its last nine games. The Padres are still sitting in the third spot in the National League Wild Card as they trail the Phillies by 2.5 games and are only a game and a half up on the Brewers so this is a big roadtrip coming up but they have struggled away from home after a blistering start. Joe Musgrove was sensational to start the season as he posted a 1.59 ERA in his first 12 starts, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of those games. Since then, he has been up and down with a 4.57 ERA in his last nine outings which includes a 5.78 ERA in four road starts. Here, we play on home teams batting .190 or worse over their last five games going up against an opponent batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games. This situation is 60-29 (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
08-26-22 | Tigers +148 v. Rangers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Detroit is coming off a 3-2 homestand and going back, the Tigers have won five of their last eight games, all underdog winners, and they are catching another big number, this time against a below average team at home. Detroit has not played well on the road where the offense has struggled but head to an offensive park in a good spot. After a very strong performance after getting called up last fall, Tyler Alexander made the rotation and struggled with an 8.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in four starts and was sent down to the Minors. He was recalled in June and has been solid with a 2.81 ERA in 10 relief appearances to open the second stint and most recently, five starts. Texas has won four of its last five games and going back, eight of its last 12 and it continues to be priced high at home despite the poor play. The Rangers are 27-34 here, dropping nearly 10 units in those games and this is a team that should not be laying these big numbers with no advantages on the mound. Glenn Otto has looked good over his last four starts but overall, he has a 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 19 starts including a 5.98 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in nine home outings with the Rangers going 3-6 in those games. Here, we play against American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and after a combined score of 15 runs or more going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 35-18 (66 percent) since 1997. 10* (967) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
08-25-22 | Yankees v. A's +190 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The Yankees have quelled some of the slump chatter as they have won three straight games following a 6-14 run over their previous 20 games. After starting the season great on the road, they have struggled by going 4-14 over their last 18 games on the highway and are now just three games over .500. Jameson Taillon got off to a great start this season with a 2.70 ERA over his first 13 starts but has been inconsistent since then as he has posted a 5.64 ERA over his last 11 starts and New York has gone 4-5 in his last nine outings. Following a nine-game losing streak, Oakland has gone 5-4 over its last nine games with all five victories coming in at plus money and it is getting value again tonight against the highest publicly bet team in baseball. The Athletics have struggled at home this season but have leveled out by going 9-9 over their last 18 games here which has resulted in +4.2 units of profit. James Kaprielian has been very consistent over the last two months after a rough start to the season where he had a 6.31 ERA through his first nine starts but has a 2.88 ERA since then, covering 11 starts and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those outings. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -175 or more batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 31-22 (68.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Oakland Athletics | |||||||
08-25-22 | Twins +160 v. Astros | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The Twins have picked a bad time to fall into a slump as they have lost five straight games and are now four games behind the Guardians in the American League Central. They are also four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, tied with the White Sox and a game and a half behind the Orioles. Minnesota is five games under .500 on the road and are underpriced with this pitching matchup. Chris Archer has been very good this season as he has allowed more than three runs only three times in his 21 starts and after a pair of poor outings to end July, he has a 3.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his four August starts. Houston has won three games in a row and has won 13 of its last 20 games to maintain its 12.5-game lead over Seattle in the American League West. Coupled with the recent play of the Yankees, the Astros have a 3.5-game lead over New York for the best record in the American League and despite being 23 games over .500 at home, they are just up a little over seven units of profit. Luis Garcia got off to a fine start with a 3.07 ERA in his first 10 starts but has posted a 4.97 ERA in his last 12 starts and has been bailed out with strong run support from the offense. Here, we play on underdogs after four straight games where they had seven or fewer hits, starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing. This situation is 59-47 (55.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Minnesota Twins | |||||||
08-24-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals +112 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 112 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Arizona snapped a three-game losing streak with a 7-3 victory over Kansas City last night in this series opener to win five of its last eight road games. Overall, the Diamondbacks are 24-34 on the highway where they are hitting just .228 which is No. 24 in baseball. Zac Gallen has been lights out of late as the has not allowed a run over his last three starts with each of those covering at least seven innings which is the reason the Diamondbacks are the favorites here in a contrarian matchup. Kansas City is 3-9 over its last 12 games but that includes a 1-6 record over its most recent roadtrip and while going 20-40 on the road, it is 30-35 at home and down just a couple units. The makeshift offense has struggled of late but the Royals are hitting .256 at home which is tied for No. 7 in the league. Brady Singer has put up some solid numbers of late with a 1.40 ERA over his last three starts and going back, he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts with Kansas city going 7-2 in those games, the two losses coming against the White Sox and Yankees on the road. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games, in August games. This situation is 43-12 (78.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
08-24-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +190 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 190 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The Cardinals remain red hot as they have won nine of their last 10 games following a sweep at Arizona to open this roadtrip and going back, they have won 20 of their last 25 games. They have built a five and a half game lead over the Brewers in the National League Central and most of their damage has come at home where they are 40-21 and despite the sweep over the Diamondbacks, they are still right at .500 on the road. Miles Mikolas is coming off a gem at Arizona as he allowed just one run on two hits over eight innings but despite that, he still has a 4.23 ERA on the where in 13 starts where the Cardinals have gone 6-7. The Cubs have been playing their best baseball of the season as they had a five-game winning streak snapped with a 5-2 loss against Milwaukee on Sunday and going back, they have won 12 of their last 19 games including a 7-5 run at home that includes three series wins. Chicago is 10 games under .500 at home and down just over even money but most of the defeats were earlier in the season at a favorite price. Luke Farrell will get the ball for the Cubs in his first start of the season and while not expected to go long, he is backed by a solid bullpen. Here, we play against road teams off a win of eight runs or more over a division rival and starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 32-17 (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs | |||||||
08-22-22 | Braves v. Pirates +175 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. The Braves have been the hottest team in baseball over the last two and a half months as they are 52-21 since June 1 and after the Sunday loss, they have still won 11 of their last 13 games. Atlanta now trails the Mets by four games in the National League East and it hits the road where it is 33-24 but up only 3.4 units. Jake Odorizzi is having a decent season on the mound with a 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 15 starts with his home/road splits fairly identical. The has allowed five runs or more three times and while one of those was against the Mets, the other two came against Oakland and Kansas City, two of the six lowest OPS hitting teams in baseball so he has struggled against non-productive teams. The Pirates have not gotten off to a great start in this nine-game homestand as it lost its first two series against the Red Sox and Reds and while they are 26-33 at home, the Pirates are in the plus moneywise. The offense has been inconsistent but are not in an overly difficult pitching matchup here. Roansy Contreras is one of the top pitching prospects in the Pirates organization and he showed some flashes as he allowed three runs or less in seven of eight starts and in his first start since re-entering, he allowed four runs in six innings against the Red Sox as his command was off but a bounce back is expected. He faces a solid lineup but one that strikes out a lot and he had a solid performance in his first start against them. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 59-41 (59 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates | |||||||
08-22-22 | Angels +191 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. After winning the opener against Detroit, the Angels dropped the final two games as the offense struggled throughout with just four runs total in the three-game set. They have lost five of their last six games and sit seven games under .500 on the road but the bullpen remains a strength with a 3.51 ERA and should get a decent amount of use here. Tucker Davidson is in his second stint in the rotation and he has been up and down with a couple poor outings against the Phillies and Mariners but allowed just three runs total in his other three starts, covering 16 innings. This is not a bad matchup as Tampa Bay is hitting just .231 against lefty starters while averaging 3.7 rpg. Tampa Bay took care of Kansas City on Sunday to win the four-game series 3-1 and going back, it has won seven of its last nine games. The Rays are once against tied with Toronto and just percentage points against of Seattle in the American League Wild Card standings with all three teams 2.5 games clear of the Twins and Orioles. They have been solid at home with a 38-23 record and are again priced to show that here. Jeffrey Springs has gotten off to a great start this season with a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts and most of his recent action has been on the road. He has made only two home starts over his last nine outings and he has been average with a 4.91 ERA in those games against the Pirates and Guardians. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 41-23 (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
08-20-22 | Rangers +155 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 155 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. We lost a tough one run game with the Rangers last night as a pair of back-to-back solo home runs in the first inning did them in and we are going back to them tonight. Texas concluded a 4-3 homestand with a 10-3 win over Oakland on Thursday as the bats came to life following a three-game stretch of scoring just five runs total but managed just the one run Friday. The Rangers are 26-32 on the road which is nothing great but they are plus money because of the large underdog numbers and while this one is not a huge one, it is a value dog with another very good pitching matchup. Glenn Otto has pitched well this season as he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 18 starts and has a 2.65 ERA over his last three. Minnesota swept the Royals prior to this series and has won four straight games as it is keeping pace in the American League Central, sitting one game behind the Guardians after possessing first place for much of the season. The Twins are 35-25 at home but up in units by a very small amount and they are another public favorite tonight. Chris Archer has been good but not great as he has yet to make it past five innings in any of his 20 starts so despite a decent 4.15 ERA, the Twins are 7-13 in those games. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 183-180 (50.4 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +82.1. 10* (977) Texas Rangers | |||||||
08-20-22 | Royals +188 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay in ten innings on Friday. The Royals had won six of nine prior to that and will be out to start another streak facing the second part of the Rays ace duo after getting by Shane McClannahan last night. Kansas City won for just the 20th time on the road and it is getting another favorable number in what is not a horrible pitching matchup. Kris Bubic had a 7.45 ERA through June, covering 11 starts but he has been great over the last two months with a 3.40 ERA over his last nine starts. This includes a seven-inning, two-run gem against Tampa Bay a month ago. Tampa Bay came into Friday on a 5-1 run and had moved into the top Wild Card spot in the American League and now it is at No. 3, just a half game ahead of Minnesota. The Rays are 36-23 at home and up only 3.8 units of profit and this is a tough spot against a left-handed starter where they are hitting just .228 while averaging 3.6 rpg. Drew Rasmussen is coming off a perfect game bid as he did not allow a baserunner through eight innings against the Orioles before it was broken up in the ninth inning. He has been pitching very well of late and has solidified wis spot as the No. 2 arm in the rotation but Tampa Bay has gone just 6-5 in his last 11 starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. this situation is 40-22 (64.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals | |||||||
08-19-22 | Rangers +125 v. Twins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Texas concluded a 4-3 homestand with a 10-3 win over Oakland on Thursday as the bats came to life following a three-game stretch of scoring just five runs total. The Rangers are 26-31 on the road which is nothing great but they are plus money because of the large underdog numbers and while this one is not a huge one, it is a value dog with a very good pitching matchup that everyone is overlooking. Martin Perez was a big trade rumor around the deadline and rightfully so as he has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His .107 xISO is third best in the league while his barrel percentage is second best which is a big edge against one of the better power teams in baseball which he will limit here. Minnesota is coming off a home sweep of the Royals as it is keeping pace in the American League Central, sitting one game behind the Guardians after possessing first place for much of the season. The Twins are 34-25 at home but up in units by a very small amount and because of the small price here, the public is riding Minnesota hard with over a 70 percent backing. Dylan Bundy has been all over the map as in 20 starts, he has allowed two runs or less 11 times but has also allowed four runs or more seven times and will be facing a Rangers offense that is hitting .274 over their last seven games. Here, we play on American League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season and who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 34-14 (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (925) Texas Rangers | |||||||
08-19-22 | Angels v. Tigers +128 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. The Angels concluded a 2-4 homestand by getting swept by the Mariners in their three-game set and they hit the road where they are 25-31 and down 4.4 units on the season. The offense has been horrible away from home as Los Angeles is hitting .217 which is tied for second worst in baseball while averaging only 3.6 rpg. The Angels went 5-2 on their most recent roadtrip and it was the pitching that held up as they allowed only 2.4 rpg and we do not see that holding up here. Patrick Sandoval has a 3.47 ERA on the road but a WHIP of 1.52 comes along with that and after a hot start to the season, the Angels are 2-10 over his last 12 starts and comes in as a road favorite for just the third time this season. Detroit is coming off a 2-5 roadtrip to fall to 19-42 on the road which is the worst road record in baseball and it brings in the worst scoring differential in the American League but it has been much better at home despite riding a 1-6 record here heading into this homestand. The Tigers are in the plus against left-handed pitching and on the season, they are hitting .263 against lefties which is sixth best in baseball. Matt Manning will be making his sixth start since re-entering the rotation and he is coming off his worst outing last time out against the red hot White Sox. He has made two home starts against the Red Sox and Rays and has posted a 0.69 ERA and 0.61 WHIP, allowing just one run on five hits over 13 innings. Here, we play against teams batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, after two straight games where the bullpen allowed four or more earned runs. This situation is 69-31 (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers | |||||||
08-18-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -135 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our A.L. East Game of the Year. Both Toronto and New York have been playing some poor baseball recently. The Blue Jays had lost eight of 10 games prior to their win on Wednesday against Baltimore that got them back into the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card, tied with Tampa Bay and a game and a half behind Seattle. There has been a four-game flip over the past 10 games and now this makes this a huge series with the Yankees before starting another big one next week at Boston. They are in a tough spot with Jose Berrios on the hill as he currently is the worst pitcher in baseball among qualified starters as he has the worst wOBA, xWOBA and xISO and it is not really even close. His road numbers are even worse as just as a general guide, he has a 7.50 ERA in 11 road outings. New York had dropped 11 of its last 13 games prior to its extra-inning win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday and even with that, the Yankees have lost five straight series. Going back further, New York is 9-17 over its last 26 games and it has lost hold of the best record in the American League so while this is a big series for Toronto, the same goes for the Yankees. Frankie Montas is making his third start with the Yankees and after getting lit up by the Cardinals in his first one, allowing six runs over three innings, he settled down against Boston and gave up two runs over five innings and now he makes his Yankee Stadium debut as a member of the home team. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts. This situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (966) New York Yankees | |||||||
08-17-22 | Padres -140 v. Marlins | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our National League Game of the Month. San Diego has lost the first two games of this series and has dropped three of its last four and it now sits just one game ahead of the Brewers for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Padres are now 32-30 on the road and is down just over a unit of profit but the numbers remain good as they are hitting .248 while averaging 4.8 rpg, with the former being ranked No. 5 in the National League. Mike Clevinger has been really good since entering the rotation following his injury as he has a 3.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with San Diego going 9-4 in his 13 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of those, the three exceptions being against the Dodgers, the Rockies at Coors Field and the Mariners. San Diego is 44-23 against National League teams with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. Miami has won two games in a row following a four-game losing streak and a 2-8 run over its previous 10 games. The Marlins are 25-32 at home and have dropped 13 units so they have been a betting favorite here based on the lines and while an underdog again today, it is not a significant number. Pablo Lopez got off to a sensational start for the Marlins as he had a 1.83 ERA in his first 10 starts but has put up a 4.99 ERA over his last 13 outings. This includes an 8.77 ERA in his last three home starts and Miami has gone 3-6 in his last nine home starts. Miami is 4-17 as a home underdog this season. Here, we play against National League underdogs with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season, in August games. This situation is 177-65 (73.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) San Diego Padres | |||||||
08-16-22 | Mets +134 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. New York has won 10 of its last 13 games and while things tightened up for a little bit in the National League East, the Mets are 4.5 games up on the Braves with this being a critical part of the series with the bottom end of the rotation pitching the first two games before throwing out Scherzer and deGrom in the final two games. New York is 35-22 on the road and up close to 9 units with this being the start of a big 10-gme roadtrip. Taijuan Walker has been a solid addition to the Mets rotation as he has a 3.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 20 starts including a 3.37 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 11 road outings and he has some business to take care of as two starts back, he got lit up by his former team, allowing eight runs in just one inning, snapping a streak of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs. The Braves roll into Tuesday riding a seven-game winning streak which came after losing four of five to the Mets as they try to keep pace but the Mets are not giving in. Atlanta is firmly entrenched with the top Wild Card spot in the National League, sitting six and a half games ahead of the Padres. The Braves are 38-22 at home but up just 4.6 units which is an indication to the big favorite lines and that is the case here in what should be much closer to a pickem. Charlie Morton has been all over the place and has a 4.26 ERA on the season which is not horrible but he has allowed four runs or more in seven of his last 14 starts including three of his last five which equates to a 4.40 ERA in those five outings. While Walker has struggled against the Braves, Morton has allowed nine runs in 10.2 innings against the Mets in two starts this season. Here, we play against National League teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and with a WHIP of 1.10 or less over his last 10 games. This situation is 42-18 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) New York Mets | |||||||
08-16-22 | Red Sox v. Pirates +126 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Boston is coming off a series win over the Yankees and has won three of its last four games following a four-game losing streak. The Red Sox are two games under .500 and are sitting 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League which is not insurmountable but there are three teams in front of them that have been playing a lot better over the short-term. The road has been ok where they are a game under .500 but are dead even in units which is due to numbers like this. Nick Pivetta had a nice run in May and June but he has struggled of late with a 7.97 ERA over his last seven starts with Boston losing five of those including both on the road by a combined score of 21-4. We lost with Pittsburgh on Sunday as a +200 underdog as it carried a lead into the ninth inning but allowed a walk-off home run to get swept which included a 2-8 roadtrip but the Pirates return home where they are a respectable 24-29 and are up 3.9 units with the majority falling into underdog spots which is the case again here. This is a suspect line because it is the Red Sox and the pitching matchup is actually in the favor of Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has a 4.32 ERA on the season which is due to a poor start with an ERA of 6.28 in his first seven starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 13 outings and he has a 2.23 ERA over his last six starts. One big positive is that he has allowed just 10 home runs all season and Boston has been very average with the long ball. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season, after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 200-105 (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (980) Pittsburgh Pirates |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |