Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show | |
The Super Bowl LVIII is set to be a thrilling game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers on February 11, 2024. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back Lombardi trophies since the New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004. They finished the regular season 11-6, winning the AFC West title for the eighth consecutive season. Their journey to the Super Bowl included victories over the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens, making them currently 14-6 S/U and 12-7-1 ATS. On the other hand, the 49ers, led by Brock Purdy, are seeking to avenge their Super Bowl 54 defeat and capture the organization's first Super Bowl win since Super Bowl 29 nearly 30 years ago. They finished the regular season with a 12-5 record and defeated the Packers and Lions in the playoffs to advance to the Super Bowl with a 14-5 record and 9-9-1 ATS mark. You can make an argument for either side here on Sunday. 49ers had some practice issues as they had to practice outdoors in rainy conditions at the old UNLV turf which isn't very good. Meanwhile, the Chiefs got the state-of-the-art facility that the Raiders use for their practice facility. This one looks to come down to which team makes the better adjustments at halftime and with that I have to go with the Chiefs and Andy Reid. This game is expected to be a clash of the Chiefs' experience and the 49ers' resilience. It's going to be an exciting match to watch! But for me, I'm on the Chiefs both with the 2-points and straight-up. | |||||||
01-28-24 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 149 h 41 m | Show |
There must be some kind of curse on Buffalo Bills kickers in the postseason. Those misses back in the Super Bowl days on Sunday Buffalo's Tyler Bass missed the game tying 44-yard field goal with 1:47 left in the 4th quarter. Once again we get the Kansas City Chiefs surviving and heading the the AFC Championship. Patrick Mahomes was 17 of 23 for 215 yards and two TD's for the Chiefs connecting on both TD's to his favorite target, Kelce. Kelce had five receptions for 75 yards and those two TD's. Josh Allen was 26 of 39 for just 186 yards and one TD. He also led the team in rushing with 12 rushes for 76 yards and two TD's. The Ravens had little trouble with the Houston Texans on Saturday, winning 34-10. The game was tied at half, 10-10, but the Ravens pulled way in the second half for a 24-0 run. QB Larmar Jackson had two passing and two rushing TD's in the win. He also led the team in rushing with 100 yards. Now we get two see two of the most dynamic QB's in the game matchup here on Sunday. KC proved that they can win a playoff game on the road with Mahomes, their first on the road with him. Now he has to do it again for the Chiefs to return to the Super Bowl. For me, this one is a no-brainer, I'm taking these points with the Chiefs as my NFL Game of the Year and expect a straight-up win. | |||||||
01-21-24 | Bucs +6.5 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay pulled one of the big upsets last week by drubbing the Philadelphia Eagles in the Wildcard round, 32-9, as a 3-point dog. The Bucs have momentum, closing the regular season with five straight wins and then their playoff win last week. They had 426 yards vs the Eagles to just 276 yards. The Detroit Lions own their first playoff game in more than 30 years with their win over the Rams, 24-23. The Lions have the 2nd ranked passing offense in the league and 5th in rushing. One area they are lacking is scoring defense, where they rank 23rd with a 23.2 ppg allowance. These teams met back in October with Detroit taking that one in Tampa Bay, 20-6, as a 3-point favorite. The one issue when you lay this many points is when the team can't really stop anyone. And, teams have moved the ball against the Lions in the last eight or so games. The Lions have given up 300 or more yards passing in four straight games. I look for the Bucs to hang around in this one. Too many points to lay with a team that has the momentum that Tampa Bay has. Take the Bucs here on Sunday. | |||||||
01-15-24 | Steelers +10.5 v. Bills | 17-31 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
This game had to be moved from Sunday because of blizzard conditions in Buffalo with winds gusting to hurricane levels of 75 mph. The weather won't be great on Monday either. There will still be a chance of snow with temps in the teens. But the winds will be much calmer near 10 mpg. Buffalo had to beat Miami last week to get this home game and not go to frigid Kansas City as the Dolphins did. The Steelers finished the season with three straight wins and got in the playoffs by beating Baltimore to close out the regular season. They finished 10-7 overall and look for a road upset today. Buffalo had to win its final five regular season games to win the division and finished 11-6. The Bills offense struggled to finish drives vs Miami, but got enough done to get the win. The Bills are 8th in the league in passing and 7th in rushing. Buffalo has a number of players on the injury report including some key players on defense. Both teams come into this game with momentum. The weather conditions could play a part and this is a big line to fade for any NFL team, let alone a playoff game. I'm taking the points here today. Play Pittsburgh. | |||||||
01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
NFC Wild Card action continues here on Sunday evening in Primetime as the LA Rams take on the Detroit Lions. The Rams finished the regular season at 10-7 S/U and 10-6-1 ATS. The interesting thing is that QB's from both teams face their former team as Rams Matthew Stafford faces the Lions and Jared Goff of Detroit faces the Rams. The Rams had a successful season since they weren't expected to win more than 6 games or there about. The Rams are peaking now too, which is to their benefit as they bring lots of momentum into this playoff game. The Rams were 8th in the NFL in scoring with a 23.8 ppg average. The Lions were 12-5 S/U and ATS to finish the regular season. The last time the Lions won a division crowns was back in 1993 when the NFC North didn't even exist. Goff was 2nd in the NFL in total passing yards, 269.1 ypg and had 30 TD's with just 12 INT's. The Browns were 5th in scoring this year with a 27.1 ppg average. The Lions passing defense is their weak point as they ranked just 27th in the NFL compared to the Rams 10th ranked pass defense. The Rams also hold a coaching advantage with Sean McVay. Detroit HC Dan Campbell is a candidate for Coach of the Year, but McVay has been to the Super Bowl. The Rams momentum and experience could be the deciding factors in this game. I'll take the points with the Rams. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Miami had a chance to play at home in nice weather, but a loss to the Bills last week thrust them into this wild card slot and a trip to frigid Kansas City today. Preliminary weather has bitter cold at -10 degrees at kickoff and a potential wind chill around -30 degrees with winds 10-20 and gusting higher. Not a great door prize for Miami losing last week. That makes this game more about mental mindset then stats or physical. Chiefs HC Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are 4-2 vs the spread in playoff games since 2021. They also have the experience of two Super Bowls. Miami comes in with inexperience in postseason and a 1-3 ATS as road dogs this year. The weather will be the great neutralizer to the Dolphins speed and will keep the score from getting out of hand. With blustery snow, high winds and that freezing wind chill this all plays into the Kansas City Chiefs hands. I'll take the Chiefs today. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns -2 v. Texans | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
These teams met back on Christmas eve as the Browns defeated the Texans, 36-22 in Houston. WR Amari Cooper set a Browns record with 265 yards receiving. Cleveland comes in winners in four of the last five games. They lost in the last week of the regular season as they rested most of their starters. The Browns have QB Joe Flacco at QB who has Super Bowl experience with Baltimore. The Texans got to the playoffs behind exciting Rookie QB CJ Stroud. They had to beat the Colts in the final week of the season to get here and they did, 23-19. Though they had to hold the Colts on 4th down inside the redzone that could have been the difference in that game. Stroud plays in his first NFL playoff game. How will he do against veteran Flacco? He will face a very good Browns defense and will face a lot of pressure in this game. The Browns have done well as the favorite, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the season. I like the experience and defense of the Browns in this game. Play Cleveland. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Eagles v. Giants +5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
NFC East clash here on Sunday as the NY Giants welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to the Meadowlands. The Eagles have been terrible lately on the road and overall. They have lost two straight away from home and lost last week at home to the Cardinals, 31-35 as a 12.5-point favorite. The Giants gave the Rams all they could handle last week, but just came up short in a a 25-26 loss as a 6.5-point dog. The Eagles looked to have the NFC East won, but their poor play down the stretch has relegated them to a wild card now. Unless the improbable happens and the Cowboys lose at home to the Commander, which I don't see happening. The Giants have lost three straight and last week summed up their season, as they missed the winning field goal in the final seconds in that loss to the Rams. It looks like the Eagles will play Jalen Hurts here, I'm not sure why. If the Cowboys jump out to any big lead I'm sure we'll see the Eagles pulling starters left and right here. The Giants have played with some guts as they did vs the Rams last week. I'll take the points in this one as the Eagles lose interest in the 2nd half. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bucs -4 v. Panthers | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
The final week of the season sees the 8-8 Tampa Bay Bucs taking on the 2-14 Carolina Panthers in a NFC South clash. Tampa Bay is coming off a lackluster home loss to the Saints last week, 13-23. The Bucs had just 57 rushing yards though QB Baker Mayfield did get 309 yards passing and Two TD's. The fate is still in the Bucs hands though. A win here today and they claim the NFC South and that playoff spot. The Panthers have nothing but pride to play for here today. They have lost two straight since that win over the Falcons, 9-7. They were shut out last week by the Jaguars, 0-26. The Panthers had just 124 total yards in that loss. Rookie QB Bryce Young has been a major disappointment this year and last week was par for the course as he went 19-of-32 for 112 yards and an INT. This one is easy for me. The Bucs have it all to play for against a very bad Panthers team that has nothing to play for. The Bucs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. I look for an easy Tampa Bay win here on Sunday. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Jets v. Patriots -1.5 | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
The Ny Jets and the New England Patriots will finish their respective seasons here on Sunday. The Jets are 6-10 while the Pats are 4-12. The Jets lost last week to the Brownss while the Pats gave the Bills all they could handle. Seems like yesterday that QB Aaron Rodgers went down in the first 75 seconds of the season with that Achille's Heel injury. Since then the Jets have had all kinds of issues at QB and covered just one of their last five games. The Patriots look to finish this miserable season on a up note, winning their last game. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. Is this the end of an era in New England as Bill Belichick is done in Foxboro? If so, then the Patriots will want to send him out on a winning note. Take New England. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Browns v. Bengals -7 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
The final week of the regular season is here, boy how fast it goes. And today we have a battle of Ohio as the Browns take on the Bengals. Hard to believe these teams met way back in week one. Now Joe Flacco is the Browns QB, who would have thought that? Browning is the Bengals QB as Burrows was lost to a season ending injury. The Browns have clinched a playoff spot, so don't expect much from them here today. The Browns beat the Jets last week, 37-20 for their 11th win of the season and the Wild Card slot. The Bengals playoff hopes ended last week with their loss to the Chiefs, 17-25. Really it comes down to who wants to play today. I think the Bengals play for some Ohio pride today as the Browns just look to get out of this one healthy. Play Cincinnati. | |||||||
12-31-23 | Rams -6 v. Giants | 26-25 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
The LA Rams are 8-7 and tied for 2nd place in the NFC West. The Rams are the No6 Seed right now in the NFC. The Rams greatly improve their playoff chances with a win here today at the NY Giants. They have won five of their last six games to breath life back into their playoff hopes. The Rams average 23.8 ppg and allow 22.1 ppg. However, if you just look at their last five games, they have scored at least 28 points in every game. Their one loss that OT loss at Baltimore, 31-37. The Giants have nothing to play for as they sit 5-10 with the Rams today and the Eagles next week. The can play the role of spoiler though. They are coming off a loss at Philly last week, 25-33, covering the 14-point dog line. They have gone over inf three of their last five games. If the Rams continue their recent play then they should be able to score a lot of points here on Sunday. I'll take the OVER in this one. | |||||||
12-30-23 | Lions v. Cowboys -5 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions are 11-4 and have locked-up the NFC North, the first time this has happened in 30 years. The Lions visit Dallas in what might be a NFC Playoff matchup here in a few weeks. The Lions will get at least one home playoff game and maybe more depending on these last two weeks. They still can get the #1 seed. Detroit is fifth in the NFL in scoring offense and third in total offense. The defense isn't as good, ranked 24th in points allowed and 15th in total defense. The Cowboys road woes continued last week after losing two weeks at Buffalo, 10-31, they lost last week at Miami, 20-22. They return home today where they are 7-0 S/U and 6-1 ATS and outscoring their visitors by a staggering 24.4 point margin. The Cowboys have been dominating at home and I don't see any reason for that to change here today. They are one game back of the Eagles in the NFC East and have lowly Washington next week. Take Dallas here on Saturday. | |||||||
12-24-23 | Cowboys v. Dolphins -1.5 | 20-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys play Miami today in what becomes more serious times for the Cowboys. They are 10-4 and tied for first with the Eagles in the NFC East. However, they are coming off that big loss to the Bills last week, 10-31. Now they have to face another big offensive AFC team in Miami. The Cowboys average 30.8 ppg while allowing just 18.9 ppg. They also average 368.1 ypg while allowing 294.3 ypg. The Cowboys will play at home vs Detroit next week before finishing up at Washington. The Miami Dolphins are also 10-4 S/U and 9-5 ATS. They are in 1st place in the AFC East, 2-games ahead of the Bills. They don't have an easy road here at the end with Dallas today, at Baltimore next week and then home vs Buffalo in the final week. The Dolphins average 31.5 ppg and allowing 21 pg. They are coming off a shutout win last week over the Jets, 30-0, as a 7-point favorite. They held the Jets to just 23 yards rushing and 80 yards passing for 103 yards. Miami not in danger yet, but they don't have things wrapped-up either. I'll take Miami here at home on Sunday. | |||||||
12-24-23 | Jaguars v. Bucs +1.5 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
The Tampa Bay Bucs are close to securing a playoff spot, something unheard of just a few weeks ago. Tampa Bay is 7-7, but that is after winning three straight games from being 4-7. They are now in first in the NFC South, a half game ahead of the 7-8 New Orleans Saints and one full game ahead of the Falcons. That makes today's game huge for the Bucs. Tampa Bay averages 21.1 ppg while allowing 20.7 ppg. They also average 314.9 ypg while allowing 359.9 ypg. After today's contest is the big one next week vs the Saints and then they finish up at Carolina. The Jaguars are 8-6 both S/U and ATS. They are in a 3-way tie for the AFC South division lead with Houston and the Colts. The Jags average 22.8 ppg while allowing 22.4 ppg. After today they finish against Carolina and then at Tennessee. The Jags have lost three straight games including last week vs the Ravens, 7-23. Both teams really need this game, but with the Bucs on a winning streak and the Jags on a losing streak, I'll stick with the home team here today. Play Tampa Bay. | |||||||
12-24-23 | Lions v. Vikings +3 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 41 m | Show | |
A NFC North battle here on Sunday has the 10-4, first place, Detroit Lions taking on the 7-7, second place Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are coming off a big win over the Denver Broncos, 42-17. That rebounded from the loss the previous week at Chicago, 13-28. The Lions have alternated wins and losses the last four weeks, going 2-2, both S/U and ATS. The Lions have to face the Vikings twice in the last three weeks with Dallas sandwiched in between. The Vikings could tie the Lions if they win out and Detroit losses the last three games. Detroit averages 27.3 ppg while allowing 23.6 ppg. They also average 394.4 ypg and allow 320.9 ypg. The Vikings playoff chances to a hit last week when they lost in OT to the Bengals, 24-27. They led big in the 2nd half but the Bengals rallied to tie and force OT. The Vikings offense ranks 11th in the NFL while their defense ranks 13th. The Vikings have lost three of their last four games and are 2-1-2 vs the spread the last five. The Vikings need this game badly if they hope to have a chance at the postseason. Plus we get the Vikings at about a field goal home dog here. I'll take the Vikings plus the points. | |||||||
12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills -1.5 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
The weather might be in the Bills advantage here on Sunday as Rain is expected with winds at least 15mpg and gusting higher. That could hurt the Cowboys potent pass attack. Dallas is 10-3 S/U and 9-4 ATS on the season. They are tied with the Eagles in the NFC East for first place but have a tough schedule the rest of the way. After today's game at Buffalo they go to Miami and then return home to face the Lions before a final road trip to Washington. With three of their last four on the road it could be a tough route for the Cowboys to the division title. Dallas is 5-0 S/U and 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The offense has been great, scoring at least 33 points in each of those five wins. They are coming off a win over the Eagles, 33-13 as a 3.5-point favorite. The Bills are 7-6 S/U and 5-8 ATS and right now are on the bubble to make the playoffs. The Bills were one of the preseason favorites to make the Super Bowl. Now, they are fighting for a playoff spot. Five teams in the AFC were tied at 7-6 and the Bengals won on Saturday to go to 8-6 as did the Colts. They also trail 1st place Miami by two games in the AFC East. After today they face the Chargers and Patriots (both should be easy wins) and finish vs the Dolphins, which could be for the division with some luck. As for today, the Bills will hope for as bad as weather as they can get. I'll take the Bills here today who need a win badly. | |||||||
12-17-23 | Commanders v. Rams -6.5 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
The Washington Commander won't make the postseason this year as they sit at just 4-9 overall and 5-7-1 vs the spread. The Commanders average just 20.1 ppg while allowing 30.4 ppg. They also average 336.1 ypg and allow 379.8 ypg. The Commanders will finish their season with a game at the Jets next week then home vs the 49ers and finish the season home vs the Cowboys. They have lost four straight games and are 1-3 ATS in those games. They are coming off a loss at home to Miami, 15-45, as a 8.5-point dog. The defense has not been good, allowing 90 points the last two games and at least 29 points in each of their last four games. The Rams had their three game win streak snapped last week at Baltimore. They fought the Ravens into OT and lost on special teams as Baltimore ran back a kick for a TD. The Rams offense has really been in high gear of late, scoring 31, 36 and 37 the last three weeks. At 6-7, the Rams chances of making the playoffs are not great, but they are around 40% at this point. A loss today almost assures them of not making the playoffs. The Way the Rams offense is playing and how bad the Commanders defense has been, I'll take the Rams here today. Play LA. | |||||||
12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
The Chicago Bears won their second straight game last week with a big home win over the Detroit Lions, 28-13, as a 3-point dog. The Bears were my NFC North Game of the Year Winner. The Bears are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. The Bears average 20.8 ppg while allowing 23.8 ppg. They also average 324.2 ypg and allow 314.5 ypg. The Bears are 5-8 overall and in last in the NFC North. They will hit the road here today to face the Browns in Cleveland. Always have to look at the weather in Cleveland. It's going to be in the 40's with rain showers and winds from 15 Mph. The Cleveland Browns snapped their 2-game losing streak with a win over Jacksonville last week, 31-27, as a 2.5-point favorite. That improved them to 8-5 both S/U and ATS. The Browns have been very good at home, 6-1 S/U and ATS and out score their visitors by a 20.6 to 12.6 margin. The Browns have the best defense in the NFL, allowing 263 yards per game. That combined with the weather will be all the Browns need in this game. Play Cleveland. | |||||||
12-16-23 | Vikings v. Bengals -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Vikings improved to 7-6 after a snooze-fest win last week over the Raiders, 3-0. After today's game at Cincinnati, the Vikings will finish against the Lions and Packers at home before their season finale at Detroit. Their win last week snapped a 2-game losing streak vs Chicago, 10-12, and at Denver, 20-21. The Vikings can still make the playoffs, but those odds will drop with a loss today vs the Bengals. This game will also be a battle of backup QB's, a theme we are seeing way too often in the NFL this year. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is out for the rest of the year. Joshua Dobs has taken over and went 10 for 23 last week for just 63 yards. The Bengals are also 7-6 and on the playoff bubble wit Houston, Denver and Buffalo. A win today will help their chances. QB Jake Browning has stepped in for injured Joe Burrows. Browning went 18 for 24 last week for 275 yards and 2 TD's. After today, the Bengals will go to Pittsburgh, Kansas City and then finish up at home vs the Browns. I like the way Browning has been playing and I will take the Bengals here on Saturday. | |||||||
12-11-23 | Titans v. Dolphins -13.5 | Top | 28-27 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
It's been one of those years for the Tennessee Titans. They are in last place in the NFC South with a 4-8 record and won't be going to the postseason this year. They average just 17.7 ppg and allow 21.2 ppg. They also average just 292.1 ypg while giving up 337.0 ypg. They have lost three of their last four games both S/U and ATS. That includes last week at home to Indianapolis, 28-31, as a 1-point dog. That was a high in points, in fact the 28 points last week was a season high for the team. Miami is 9-3 on the season and 8-4 vs the spread. The Dolphins are in first place in the AFC East with the Bills on their heels. This team can score, with an average of 32 ppg on the season while they allow 22.2 ppg. They also average 428.4 ypg while allowing just 300.2 ypg. With the Jets next week the Dolphins have nothing to take their attention away from tonight's contest. I'm taking the Dolphins in a Monday night blowout. Play Miami. | |||||||
12-10-23 | Broncos +2.5 v. Chargers | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
Denver's four game win streak came to an end last week at Houston as a last second touchdown attempt came up short in their 17-22 loss as 3-point dogs. The Broncos had a good shot at the win but couldn't get the ball in the endzone as time ran out. The loss also hurts their playoff chances as they dropped to 6-6 overall and 4-7-1 ATS. They had big wins in recent weeks too with wins over the Browns, Bills and Chiefs. Denver average 21.9 ppg and allows 25.2 ppg, though they did allow 70 points in that one game at Miami to skew the average. The Broncos finish up with games at Detroit, home vs the Pats and the Chargers and then at Las Vegas. Denver could easily go 4-1 down the stretch. The Chargers are also 6-6 on the season and 4-7-1 ATS. They snapped a three-game losing streak last week with a win at the Patriots, 6-0. They had just 241 total yards and held the Pats to 257. The offense has been a bit anemic the last few weeks with just 16 total points. The offense is missing their best WR in Mike Williams who is out. Plus WR Joshua Palmer is questionable with a knee injury. The loser of this one could easily see their playoff chances go way down. I'm taking the points with the Broncos today. | |||||||
12-10-23 | Jaguars v. Browns -3 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
After leaving the last game, Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence, is questionable for today's game at Cleveland. Lawrence was limited in Friday's practice. The Jags ended up losing that game at home last week to the Bengals, 31-34, as a 10-point favorite. If Lawrence can't go then C.J. Beathard will have to start after going 9-of-10 last week for 63 yards. To make matters worse for Beathard could be the weather. It's supposed to be in the 30's in Cleveland Sunday with a chance of rain and winds that are at least 13 MPH. The Browns also have QB issues. Deshaun Watson is out for the rest of the year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed last week with a concussion. Thompson-Robinson could play today or it will then be veteran Joe Flacco. Either way the windy condition could make throwing a bit more difficult. I like the Browns quite a bit here at home with this excellent defense they have. Play Cleveland. | |||||||
12-10-23 | Lions v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
The Detroit Lions jumped out to a huge lead last week at New Orleans, but had to hold on late to get the win, 33-28 as a 4-point favorite. The Lions rushing game continues to shine with 142 last week and at least 140 in four of their last five games. The Lions have now won four of their last five games and eight of the last 10 for their 9-3 record to go along with their 8-4 ats mark. Unless the Lions completely collapse in their last five games, they should cruise to the NFC North crown. They lead 2nd place Green Bay and Minnesota by 3-games with five to play. They do face Minnesota twice yet along with Denver and Dallas. The Bears won't be going to the postseason with their 4-8 record. They are coming off a big win at Minnesota last week, 12-10 as a 3-point dog. It was just on Nov 19th that they faced the Lions in Detroit and gave them all they could handle in their loss, 26-31, covering the 8-point line. In that game they rushed for 183 yards on the Lions defense while holding the Lions to just 115 yards rushing. It will be cool in Chicago with the temps in the 30's and winds around 12 mph. That might not seem like a lot but it can hinder passing. This game looks to be controlled more on the ground and with that I'm going to take the Bears who had run all over the Lions just a few games ago. Take Chicago. | |||||||
12-03-23 | Chiefs v. Packers +6 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
Sunday Night football has the Kansas City Chiefs heading to Wisconsin to take on the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs spotted the LV Raiders to a 14-0 lead last week in Vegas before waking up and outscoring the Raiders 31-3 the rest of the way for the win and cover. They are just 2-2 their last four games both S/U and ATS with losses to Philadelphia, 17-21, and to Denver, 9-24. The 8-3 Chiefs are 3-2 on the road and 2-3 vs the spread. They also average just 21.4 ppg on the road while allowing 18 ppg. Compare that to their 25.6 ppg overall and 15.4 ppg allowed. The Packers are 5-6 S/U and 6-5 ATS on the season. They are in 3rd place in the NFC North, 3-games back of the Lions. They average 21 ppg overall and allow 20.4 ppg. The Packers have won two straight games with their last game coming on Thanksgiving day with a win at Detroit, 29-22. They had last week off to prepare for this game so they have had plenty of time to rest and prepare. They also beat the Chargers in the previous game, 23-20 as a 3-point dog. The Packers defense keeps the team in games, allowing 24 points or fewer in each of their last seven games. Looks to be a good game on Sunday night. I'll take the points though with the home team in this one. Play the Packers. | |||||||
12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams -4 | 19-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
The Cleveland Browns head West to take on the LA Rams from Sofi Stadium. The Browns had to go out and sign a one-time Super Bowl as they brought in Joe Flacco. Flacco has been named the starter for today's contest. QB Deshaun Watson remains out with a shoulder injury as does RB Nick Chubb, both of whom will miss the remainder of the season. How much Flacco has left in the tank will remain to be seen, especially since he hasn't played this year. The Browns had their 3-game win streak snapped last week at Denver, 12-29. The offense scored just 12 last week and 13 the previous week vs Pittsburgh. The Browns are still in the playoff race as they are tied for 2nd place in the AFC North with Pittsburgh at 7-4, both 2.5-games back of Baltimore. The Browns average just 21.7 ppg while allowing 19 ppg. They also average 320.6 ypg while allowing 247.9 ypg. The LA Rams can climb back to the .500 mark with a win here today. They are 5-6 and in 3rd place in the NFC West. They average 21.1 ppg while allowing 21.3 ppg. They also average 340.6 ypg while allowing 331.2 ypg. The Rams have won two straight games over Seattle and last week at Arizona, 37-14, as a 2.5-point favorite. The Rams had one of their best offensive games with 228 yards rushing and 229 yards passing. I am not sold on Flacco taking over at QB here for the Browns. With no game experience this year and not exactly much results when he did last play, I can't imagine the Browns giving him a lot of the playbook here today. I'll take the Rams at home today. | |||||||
12-03-23 | Broncos +3 v. Texans | 17-22 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
Who would have guessed the Denver Broncos are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Broncos are 6-5 S/U and 4-6 ATS and 2-games back of the Chiefs in the AFC West. After starting the season 0-3 and 1-5, they have won five straight games, including last game over Cleveland, 29-12, as a 1-point home favorite. QB Russell Wilson looks more like his old self from Seattle then the version the Broncos have had to this point. The defense has also been very good of late, allowing 22 points or fewer in each of their last five games. The Broncos had that one horrible game at Miami earlier in the season where they gave up 70 points and that has skewed their averages. But consider that they allowed more points in that one game at Miami then they have their last four games combined (63). The Houston Texans, like the Broncos, both have a shot at the postseason. They are also 6-5 S/U and 5-6 ATS. The Texans are tied for 2nd place in the AFC South with the Colts, 2-games back of the Jaguars. The Texans average 23.5 ppg while allowing 21.1 ppg. They also average 374.9 ypg and allow 347.6 ppg. Houston is coming off a loss last week to the Jags, 21-24, failing to cover the 1-point dog line. That makes them 1-4 ATS their last five games. I have to take the Broncos here today as they have been playing with lots of confidence both on offense and defense. Take Denver. | |||||||
11-30-23 | Seahawks +9.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 35-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
Week 13 of the NFL kicks off here on Thursday Night with a NFC battle between the Seattle Seahawks and the Dallas Cowboys. The Seahawks have lost two straight games after their loss last week at home to the 49ers, 13-31, as a 7-point dog. The Hawks had just 220 total yards in the game. Seattle is 2nd in the NFC West with a 6-5 record, though two-games back now of the 8-3 49ers. A few weeks ago Seattle look like they would make the playoffs, now they are a underdog to get there. And, the teams they are battling for a Wildcard have some of the easiest schedules remaining. Seattle still can make the playoffs but they have a tough game tonight at Dallas. The Cowboys are 8-3 S/U and ATS on the season. They are in second place in the NFC East, two games back of the 10-1 Eagles. Philly plays the 49ers this week and that is going to be a touch game for the Eagles. Dallas could close to one game back after week 13. Then, next week it's one of the biggest impact games with Dallas hosting the Eagles. It could be these teams will be tied after that game. This is the biggest reason I'm taking Seattle tonight. I expect Dallas to have their eyes looking ahead to next week's Eagles game. And with this big spread and the Hawks needing to win, we could see Seattle stay very close in this game or even have a shot to win. I'm taking the Seahawks here on Thursday. | |||||||
11-27-23 | Bears +3 v. Vikings | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bears are 3-8 S/U and 4-5-2 ATS on the season. They travel to play Minnesota tonight. The Vikings are 6-5 S/U and 7-3-1 ATS on the season. The Bears are in last place in the NFC North with a 3-8 record and -56 point differential. The good news is that they got back QB Justin Fields. The Bears average 20.9 ppg and allow 26.0 ppg. They also average 323.8 ypg and allow 325.5 ypg. The Bears are coming off a loss at Detroit, 26-31, but covered the eight point dog line. Minnesota has to play the rest of the season with QB Kirk Cousins, who went down with an injury. That gives QB Joshua Dobbs a chance to shine. The Vikings average 23.0 ppg while allowing 20.9 ppg. Minnesota coming off a loss last week at Denver, 20-21, covering the 2.5-point dog line. That loss snapped a five-game winning streak for the Vikings. The Vikings have been a good under team too, with six of their last eight games going under the total. I'll take a chance with the dog here on Monday Night. Play the Chicago Bears. | |||||||
11-26-23 | Ravens -2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Sunday Night action here has the Baltimore Ravens traveling to LA to play the Chargers. The Ravens will be without a key offensive player in TE Mark Andrews, who is out with a leg injury. The Ravens are in first place in the AFC North with a 8-3 record. They also have a great point differential of +127. The Ravens average 27.6 ppg while allowing 16.1 ppg. Baltimore bounced back from their loss to Cleveland two weeks ago with a win last week over Cincinnati, 34-20, as a 4-point favorite. The Chargers are 4-6 S/U and 3-6 ATS on the season. If they hope to grab a wild card the Chargers will have to almost win out. They are in last in the AFC West, three games back of the Chiefs. The Chargers average 25.9 ppg and allow 23.8 ppg. They also average 354.3 ypg and allow 393.6 ypg. Even without Andrews the Ravens have enough offense to go with their excellent defense to get the cover today. Play Baltimore. | |||||||
11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
The marquee matchup on the schedule here today has the Buffalo Bills going to the city of Brotherly love to play the Philadelphia Eagles. Though I doubt there will be much love for the visiting Bills in this one. The Bills are 6-5 and 2nd in the AFC East behind the 8-3 Miami Dolphins. The Bills need to win games and not fall out of the Wild Card race. Dropping to 6-6 today could hurt their chances. The Bills average 26.7 ppg while allowing 17.3 ppg. They also have a +104 point differential. The Bills snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a win over the Jets, 32-6, as a 8.5-point favorite. They held the Jets offense to just 155 total yards in that win. The Philadelphia Eagles are 9-1 and in 1st place in the NFC East ahead of the 8-3 Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles average 27.3 ppg while allowing 21.2 ppg. The Eagles have won four straight since their first and only loss of the season to the Jets on Oct 15, 14-20, as a 6.5-point favorite. Both teams have the offense and defense to win this game. I'll take the field goal here today with the underdog Bills. | |||||||
11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks +7.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
The late game on the Thursday NFL slate has the San Francisco 49ers traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. San Francisco has gotten back to winning after three straight losses. They have since bounced back with wins over Jacksonville, 34-3, and last week at home over Tampa Bay, 27-14, though they failed to cover the 14-point home line. After starting the season 4-0-1 vs the spread, the Niners are now 1-4 ATS their last five games. The 49ers average 27.9 ppg while allowing 15.7 ppg and have a very nice +122 point differential. It initially looked like Seattle QB Geno Smith might miss time with an elbow injury he sustained last week. However, he's not been upgraded to probable for tonight's contest. Seattle lost last week at the Rams, 16-17, but covered the 2.5-point dog line. That makes them 1-2 the last three weeks. They average 21.6 ppg while allowing 21.8 ppg and have a -2 point differential. Big game here as the Seahawks can tie the 49ers in the NFC West at 7-4 with a win. I'll take the points at home with the Seahawks. | |||||||
11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
One of the better Matchups of the NFL season here tonight as the KC Chiefs host the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are 8-1 S/U and 5-2-2 ATS on the season with five of nine going over. The Chiefs are 7-2 S/U, 6-3 ATS and 2-7 O/U on the season and coming off a win over Miami, 21-14 in Frankfurt. The Eagles coming off a win over the Cowboys, 28-23, despite being outgained by Dallas, 292-406. The Eagles average 28 ppg (3rd in the NFL) and 376.8 ypg (5th in the NFL). They allow 21.7 ppg and 323.3 ypg. The Chiefs defense has been excellent, which takes a lot of pressure off the offense. They only average 23.1 ppg (13th) and 368.7 yards (8th). But they allow just 15.9 ppg (2nd in the NFL) and 288.2 yards (4th). This is a rematch of last year's Super Bowl that the Chiefs won. Can they get the rematch here today? I look to their defense to keep Jalen Hurts under control and that's the key. They held the best scoring offense in the NFL (Miami) to just 14 points. They can do it again here tonight. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
11-19-23 | Steelers +1.5 v. Browns | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Bad news for the Cleveland Browns as QB Deshaun Watson is done for the year after needing shoulder surgery. The Browns were coming off a huge win over the Baltimore Ravens as they came from behind to get the AFC North victory, 33-31, as a 5.5-point dog. That win brought the Browns to 6-3, just one game back of the Ravens in the division. The Browns also had won two straight and four of their last five both S/U and ATS. Now the QB job goes back to P.J. Walker with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the backup. This could be the end of the season for the Browns as they likely will regret not getting a better backup QB. This could open the door even more for the Steelers who are tied with the Browns at 6-3. Pittsburgh coming off a win last week over Green Bay, 23-19, as a 3-point favorite. That makes four wins in their last five games both S/U and ATS for the Steelers. Even though Pittsburgh goes to Cleveland, I have to take the Steelers here today now that Watson is gone. Get this one early as the line will move quickly as the game time approaches. Play Pittsburgh. | |||||||
11-19-23 | Raiders v. Dolphins -13.5 | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
The LV Raiders look to go 3-0 under interim coach Antonio Pierce. Pierce was a Super Bowl Champion and Pro Bowler as a player and has been quite the showman taking over for the Raiders after they fired Josh McDaniels. Don't count too much into this though as their wins have come against both New York teams. They beat the Giants at home, 30-6 and then last week beat the Jets, 16-12, covering both games. They also removed Jimmy Garoppolo at QB and replaced him with Aidan O'Connell. But is the honeymoon period over? We'll see today as they have to face the high flying Miami Dolphins. The Raiders, 5-5, still have a shot at a Wildcard, but they need lots of wins down the stretch. They face the AFC East 1st place Miami Dolphins today. The Dolphins are 6-3 and one game ahead of the Bills. They average 31.7 ppg and 435.3 yards per game. Not the pathetic offenses they have faced the last two weeks. The Dolphins will look to rebound after losing at Kansas City last week, 14-21. For me, I believe the Dolphins offense will dominate this game and be way too much for the Raiders. The Raiders offense isn't built to come from behind and we'll see that here today. Play Miami. | |||||||
11-16-23 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
AFC North clash here tonight has the 5-4 and last place Cincinnati Bengals looking to make ground on first place 7-3 Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals lost last week at home to Houston, 27-30, as a 5-point favorite. That snapped a nice 4 game win streak both S/U and ATS. The Bengals have average 20.2 ppg and 301.7 ypg this season. They have allowed 21.3 ppg and 383.7 ypg. The Ravens have to be kicking themselves after leading big last week at home against Cleveland, only to lose to the Browns, 31-33, as a 5.5-point favorite. That snapped a four game win streak for the Ravens. Baltimore averages 27 ppg and 362.7 ypg on the season. They have allowed 15.7 ppg and 273.6 ypg. Both teams looking to rebound from tough losses last week. The Bengals need this one more as a win puts them right into the thick of the AFC North race. I'll take the points with the Bengals tonight. | |||||||
11-12-23 | Giants v. Cowboys -16.5 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East matchup here on Sunday has the last place 2-7 NY Giants traveling to Texas to take on the 2nd place 5-3 Dallas Cowboys. The Giants have lost two straight games after losing last week in Las Vegas, 6-30, as a 1.5-point dog. The Giants offense has been horrible, scoring 14 points or fewer in each of their last four games. They had just 277 total yards last week. The Giants average 11.2 ppg and 268.9 ypg on the season. They allow 24.1 ppg and 338.3 ypg. Now they face a Dallas team that has averaged 27.5 ppg on the season and 346.5 yards. They are coming off a loss at Philadelphia last week, 23-28, as a 3-point dog. They will return home where they are 3-0 both S/U and ATS this season and average 37 ppg while allowing just 11 ppg. Bad spot for the Giants today. Not only do they not score but they face a Dallas team that will be looking to rebound from that loss last week. I'll lay the big points here today with Dallas as I believe the line should be at least a touchdown more than it is now. Play Dallas. | |||||||
11-06-23 | Chargers v. Jets +3.5 | 27-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
The LA Chargers are trying to catch the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West but it's not going so well. The Chiefs won on Sunday in Frankfurt over Miami, improving to 7-2 on the season. Now the Chargers can just get back to the .500 mark at 4-4 with a win here on Monday Night in New York vs the Jets. The Chargers average 24.9 ppg while allowing 24.0 ppg. They also average 362.4 ypg while giving up 390.9 ypg. The Chargers snapped a two-game losing and spread streak last week with their win over the Bears, 30-13, as a 9.5-point favorite. The Jets are 4-3 S/U and 4-2-1 vs the spread this season. The Jets trail the Dolphins and Bills in the AFC East. However, both the Bills and Dolphins lost on Sunday, so this is a key spot for the Jets to improve to 5-3 and pick up a game on both the teams ahead of them. The Jets have a excellent defense, which allows 18.4 ppg and 329.3 ypg. The offense isn't so good, scoring just 18 ppg and 273.3 ypg on the season. The Jets have won three straight games though, going 2-0-1 ATS vs the spread. They are coming off a win over the Giants, 13-10. They also led the high flying Eagles offense to just 14 points in that win two weeks ago. Now the Jets find themselves a home dog to a team with a losing record. I'll take the points at home here on Monday. Play the NY Jets. | |||||||
11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals -1 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
The Buffalo Bills hit the road on Sunday for their game at Cincinnati. The Bills are 5-3 on the season and in 2nd place in the AFC East, one game back of Miami. They have a +86 point differential. The Bills also average 27.7 ppg while allowing 17 ppg. They average 376.9 ypg while allowing 326.1 ppg. The Bills are coming off a win over Tampa Bay last week, 24-18, but failed to cover the 10-points spread. In fact, they are 0-4 against the number the last four games. The Cincinnati Bengals are in 3rd place in the AFC North, behind 5-3 Pittsburgh and 6-2 Baltimore. They average 18.7 ppg while allowing 20.6 ppg on the season. The Bengals finally put together a complete game last week, beating San Francisco on the road, 31-17, as a 4.5-point dog. That makes three straight wins both S/U and ATS. They have also gone over in two of their last three games. The Bengals have also scored 31 points or more in two of the last three. I like the Bengals at home here on Sunday night. Play Cincinnati. | |||||||
11-05-23 | Colts v. Panthers +2.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
The AFC South is one of the worst divisions in football as three of the four teams have just three wins. That includes the Indianapolis Colts who are 3-5 and have a -24 point differential. The Colts are trailing 6-2 first place Jacksonville by three games. The Colts average 25.6 ppg while allowing 28.6 ppg. They average 362.4 ypg while allowing 371.3 ypg. QB Anthony Richardson is out for the rest of the season after sustaining a shoulder injury. That leaves Gardner Minshew as the starter. The Colts have lost three straight games, including last week at home to New Orleans, 27-38, as a 2-point dog. Now they hit the road to face the Panthers. Carolina won its first game of the season last week at home over Houston, 15-13, covering the 3.5-point dog line. The Panthers average just 18.1 ppg while allowing 28.4 ppg. They also average 284.6 ypg and allow 326 ypg. QB Bryce Young had one of his better starts, completing 22-of-31 passes for 235 yards, one TD and no INT's. With Richardson out, I like the Panthers to get win number two here on Sunday. Play Carolina. | |||||||
11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
The Tennessee Titans look to climb back to the .500 mark here on Thursday night as they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Titans have a -8 point differential this season. The Titans will also be without QB Ryan Tannehill who will miss this game with a ankle injury. In his place will be Will Levis. Levis will make his second NFL start here tonight. Levis made his debut last week at home vs the Atlanta Falcons and threw for FOUR touchdowns in the win, 28-23 as a 2.5-point dog. That win snapped a two-game losing streak for the Titans. It also eclipsed a 18.9 ppg average for this Titans team. Still, they are a good deal back of first place and 6-2 Jacksonville. The Steelers are tied with Cincinnati and Cleveland in the AFC North at 4-3. They all trail the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers also have a -34 point differential. They average just 16.1 ppg and allow 21.0 ppg. The Steelers offense manages just 271.7 ypg while allowing 382.6 ypg. The Steelers coming off a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 10-20 last week. They managed just 261 total yards in the loss. That loss snapped a two-game winning streak by Pittsburgh. I'm taking the Steelers at home. The Steelers and J.J Watt have a better defense then the Falcons so we likely won't see Levis throw for another four TD's here tonight. Play Pittsburgh. | |||||||
10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -7 | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
The LV Raiders couldn't have looked much worse then they did last week in their loss at Chicago, 12-30. They hade just 39 yards rushing and without their starting QB they had just 196 yards passing. They couldn't stop the Chicago rushing attack as the Bears piled-up 173 yards on the ground. Good news is that QB Jimmy Garoppolo (back) has been upgraded to probable after missing that game last week. How effective he will be will remain to be seen however. The 5-2 Detroit Lions having one of their best seasons in many years. They are in first place in the NFC North and can extend that tonight over the second place Vikings who just lost their QB Kirk Cousins for the season. The Packers and Bears look to be no show as both have just two wins. The Lions will look to rebound from their worst performance of the season last week at Baltimore, 6-38. It was their worst offensive output and they allowed over 500 yards to the Ravens. That loss snapped both a four game win streak S/U and against the number. I look for the Lions to rebound from that bad performance last week. The Raiders have no answer if they lose their QB again, which could happen with every play. I'll take Detroit. | |||||||
10-29-23 | Texans v. Panthers +3.5 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
The Houston Texans look to get above .500 with a win today at Carolina. The Texans are 3-3 and in 2nd place in the AFC South behind 5-2 Jacksonville. The Texans have a +22 point differential. Meanwhile, Carolina looking for its first win of the season at 0-6 and in last place in the NFC South. The Panthers have a -74 point differential this season. Houston is coming off a win at home over the Saints last week, 20-13 as a 2-point dog. They had just 297 yards compared to the Saints 430 yards. Carolina coming off a loss at Miami last week, 21-42, as a 14-point dog. The Panthers average 18.7 ppg while allowing 31 ppg. This will be a battle among the top two QB draft picks from last season with the Panthers Bryce Young against the Texans CJ Stroud. Everyone keeps waiting for Young to make an impact. Growing pains can be difficult for a rookie in the NFL. I'm going to take the home dog here with Carolina and see if Young can finally be a factor. Play Carolina. | |||||||
10-29-23 | Jaguars v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The Jacksonville Jaguars won their fourth straight game after last week's win at New Orleans, 31-24, as a 2.5-point dog. The Jags haven't been dominating, but good enough. They average 24.7 ppg while allowing 20.9 ppg. They also average 336.3 ypg while giving up 354.4 ppg. The rushing defense has been very good, allowing just 80.6 ypg on the season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 4-2 S/U and ATS despite averaging just 17.2 ppg while giving up 21.2 ppg. The Jags 5-2 record has them in first place in the AFC South, with Houston and Indy the next closest teams at 3-3 and 3-4. Pittsburgh is in a crowded AFC North where the Ravens lead with a 5-2 record. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are at 4-2 and Cincinnati at 3-3. The Steelers have a -24 point differential, but somehow keep winning. This is a strange one for me. Not sure why the Jags are favored. But, that's ok, I'll take it. Play Pittsburgh! | |||||||
10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -2.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Sunday night football has the AFC vs the NFC as the Dolphins take on the Eagles. The Miami Dolphins are in first place in the AFC East with a 5-1 record. They have a point differential of +67 and have won two straight after last week's win over Carolina, 42-21, as a 14-point favorite. Their lone loss coming in that AFC East showdown with the Bills a few weeks ago, 20-48. The Eagles are in first place in the NFC East with a 5-1 record. They lead the Dallas Cowboys by one game. They have a +31 run differential and are a perfect 2-0 at home. The Eagles lost their first game of the season last week at the NY Jets, 14-20, as a 6.5-point favorite. They held the Jets to just 89 yards rushing and 155 yards passing. Should be an excellent game here on Sunday night. I'll take the Eagles at home. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
AFC West clash here on Sunday has the first place Kansas City Chiefs looking to take a commanding lead in the division. The Raiders are 3-3 while the Chargers are 2-3. The Chargers, despite having a losing record, have a +3 point differential. They rallied late last week, but Herbert's INT on the final drive locked the win for the visiting Cowboys, 17-20, as a 1.5-point dog. The loss snapped a 2-game win streak for the Chargers. The Kansas City offense hasn't been as explosive this year as in recent seasons. However, the defending champions defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in any of their last five games. The Chiefs have a +59 point differential this season thanks in big part to the defense. Chargers already in a must win spot this early in the season. I'll take the points with LA here on Sunday. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Falcons +3 v. Bucs | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
NFC South meeting here between the top two teams in the division. The Bucs are 3-2 and in first place with a +2 point differential. The Falcons are 3-3 with a -21 point differential. The Falcons are just 1-5 vs the spread and average 331 yards per game while allowing 278.2 yards. They also average 16.5 ppg while giving up 20.0 ppg. The Falcons lost last week at home to Washington, 16-24, as a 1.5-point favorite. They held Washington to just 72 rushing yards and 121 passing yards despite losing. Tampa Bay also coming off a loss last week as the dropped their home game to the Detroit Lions, 6-20, as a 3-point dog. They had just 46 rushing yards and 205 passing yards. They average 18 ppg while allowing 17.6 ppg on the season. Weak division here so the winner could be .500 or even below. I'll take the Falcons plus the points in this one. | |||||||
10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints -2 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
Week 7 of the NFL begins tonight with the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The Saints are 3-3 S/U and 1-4-1 ATS on the season while the Jags are 4-2 S/U and ATS. The Jags are coming off a easy win over the Colts last week, 37-20. QB Trevor Lawrence was injured late in the game, but came back to finish up. There was some doubt on his status tonight, but he looks to play. The Jags defense has been very good vs the run (3rd in NFL) but bad vs the pass (31st). Meanwhile the Saints look to get some consistency after losing last week at Houston, 13-20. They were without star RB Alvin Kamara for the first suspended early on and then QB Derek Carr dealing with a shoulder injury. Despite just 13 points last week the team had 24 first downs and 430 total yards. How healthy will Lawrence be tonight could be the big question. The team has logged a bunch of miles traveling this year. With a poor rushing game a lot might be on a hobbling Lawrence. I'll take the Saints tonight in this one. | |||||||
10-16-23 | Cowboys v. Chargers +2 | 20-17 | Loss | -111 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys can cut the Philadelphia Eagles NFC East lead down to just one game with a win here on Monday night. The Eagles lost their first game of the season on Sunday opening the way for the Cowboys to close the gap. Dallas is 3-2 S/U and ATS after losing last week at the 49ers, 10-42. The Cowboys defense gave up more points to the 49ers then they did in the previous four games combined. They will face a Chargers team that started the season 0-2 but have since put together wins over the Vikings and then two weeks ago over the Raiders, 24-17. The Chargers had last week off to prepare for this game. The Chargers average 27.5 ppg while allowing 26 ppg. They have averaged 388.8 ypg while giving up 404 ypg. Dallas has lost its last two road games by a combined 26-70 score. Now they hit the road again. I'm taking the Chargers who had a week off to prepare for this game and are a small home dog. Play LA Chargers. | |||||||
10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Jacksonville back on US soil after two straight weeks playing in London. The Jags might want to go there for a new home as they won both games in London. The Jags beat the Bills there last week, 25-20, and the Falcons the previous week, 23-7. That improved the team to 3-2 S/U and ATS on the season. The Jags offense has averaged 21 ppg this season while allowing 20.4 ppg. They have also averaged 358.2 ypg and allowed 344 ypg. The Indianapolis Colts got good news last week with the return of Jonathon Taylor after missing the first four games with a contract dispute. The Colts went right out last week and beat the Titans, 23-16. That makes them 3-2 S/U and ATS on the season. They have scored 24 ppg while allowing 23 ppg. These teams are pretty evenly matched. However, have to think the Jags might be a bit Jet lagged from their trips to London. I'm going to take the points here with the Colts. | |||||||
10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The Philadelphia Eagles look to keep their perfect record in tact as they visit the LA Rams here on Sunday. The 4-0 Eagles just did get by the Washington Commanders last week in OT, 34-31, failing to cover the 9-point favorite line. The Eagles have a +28 point differential as they have scored 118 points and allowed 90. They will face a 2-2 Rams team that has a +13 point differential, scoring 98 points and allowing 85. Some good news for the Rams as they return their best WR in Cooper Kupp who has missed the season with a hamstring injury. Kupp was upgraded to probable for today's contest. The Eagles have averaged 392 yards this year while allowing 323 yards. They have relied more on their rushing game this year led by Kenneth Gainwell who has averaged more than 100 yards per game. The Rams are coming off a win at the Colts last week, 29-23 as they rsuhed for 164 yards and passed for another 303 yards. WR Puka Nacau has been a leader in the NFL this year with over 119 yards in three of his four starts. Now he gets Kupp back and that should only help both receivers. I'm taking the points here today at home with the Rams. | |||||||
10-08-23 | Jaguars +6 v. Bills | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Early game from London England here on Sunday. The Jags will be playing their second straight game from London. The Jags had little trouble in last week's game over the pond as they beat the Atlanta Falcons, 23-7. The defense held the Falcons to just 287 total yards. That improved the Jags to 2-2 and tied with the other three teams in the AFC South, all with 2-2 records. The Jags have a +2 point differential as they have scored 72 points and allowed 70. The Buffalo Bills have a +84 point differential, scoring 139 points and allowing only 55. They are coming off that showdown with the Miami Dolphins last week in which they dominated from start to finish in a win, 48-20. The Bills have dominated their last three opponents since that opening week shocking loss at the Jets, 16-22. One thing in this game is the possible letdown the Bills might have after that emotional win over the Dolphins last week. I'll take the points with the Jags who seem to play very well in London. Play Jacksonville. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Sunday Night football has this AFC battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and the NY Jets. The Chiefs were shocked at home in their opener by the Lions, but since that loss have rebounded with wins over Jacksonville, 17-9, and then last week over Chicago, 41-10. The offense finally clicked last week with 303 yards passing and 153 yards rushing. They held the Bears to just 203 total yards. QB Patrick Mahomes looked very sharp last week with 272 yards passing, three TD's and no INT's. Since his favorite targer Travis Kelce returned in game two, the offense has been much more sharp. The Jets had high hopes to start the season with QB Aaron Rodgers coming over from the Packers RB Dalvin Cook coming over from the Vikings. However, the Jets lost Rodgers 75 seconds into the season with a season ending injury and Cook has been less then effective in three starts with a high of 33 yards rushing in game one. Zach Wilson resumed at QB and has been poor at best with three INT's and Two TD's in his three games. Not sure how the Jets offense will keep up with Mahomes and company in this one. Might take a miracle. take Kansas City. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Cardinals +14.5 v. 49ers | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
NFC West matchup here on Sunday has the 1-2 Arizona Cardinals playing at the 3-0 San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals are forced to play with their QB in Kyler Murray who will miss this game. However, he could return for their next game. Surprisingly though, the Cardinals are 3-0 vs the spread. They covered the 7-points in their opener at Washington, then covered vs the Giants and then shocked everyone last week with an outright win at home over the Dallas Cowboys as a 11-point dog. RB James Conner has been great with 98 yards last week and 106 the week before. The 49ers look like one of the best teams in the NFL right now. They have scored 90 points while allowing just 42 for a +48 point differential. Only the Buffalo Bills have a better point differential (+56). Brock Purdy has been efficient at QB with FOUR TD's and no INT's. He had 310 yards last week vs the Giants. But it's RB Christian McCaffrey who leads the team with 117 rushing yards per game and three TD's. The Niners are 14 point favorite or there about. With Dallas up next for the 49ers I expect them to not really concentrate much on this big dog today. I'll take the Cardinals and see if they can remain perfect vs the number. Play Arizona. | |||||||
09-25-23 | Rams +3 v. Bengals | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
The Bengals a far cry from the team that went to the Super Bowl. They are 0-2 and have scored 27 points in two games. Now QB Joe Burrows has been hurt and while it looks like he will play tonight, he can't be close to 100%. The Rams are 1-1 after their two games. The Rams opened with that come from behind week 1 win at Seattle, 30-13. Then last week came up a big short at home against the 49ers, 23-30, pushing the spread. QB Matthew Stafford has looked good for the most part, though he did have two picks last week by the 49ers and just one TD on the season. The Bengals Joe Burrow only had 82 yards in their season opening loss at Cleveland, 3-24. Then last week in the loss to Baltimore, 24-27, he had 222 yards with two TD's and one INT. Coaching edge goes to the Rams. The Rams have looked better overall and I can't be sure that Burrow can give 100% here. Take the Rams. | |||||||
09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
Week three of the NFL concludes here tonight with the Buccaneers hosting the Eagles. With Dallas and Washington both losing on Sunday, a win by the Eagles will put them alone in first in the NFC East with a 3-0 record. Tampa Bay is also 2-0 and with Atlanta and New Orleans both losing Sunday the Bucs can be the only team in the NFC South with a 3-0 record. The Eagles have average 178 yards on the ground this year and 162.5 yards through the air. Their defense has allowed just 52 rushing and 326 passing. Tampa Bay's defense has also been very good, allowing 54 yards rushing and 248.5 yards passing. Philly QB Jalen Hurts has two TD's and one INT on the season. He passed for 170 yards in the opener at New England and 193 yards last week vs Minnesota. Baker Mayfield came over to the Bucs in the offseason. He has three TD's and no INT's. At Minnesota in week one he threw for two TD's and 173 yards. Last week vs the Bears he threw for 317 yards and one TD. Both teams have played well early in the season, but the difference for me here tonight is getting points at home with Tampa Bay. I'll take the points in this one. Play Tampa Bay. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Panthers v. Seahawks -4.5 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
The Seattle Seahawks host the Carolina Panthers here on Sunday. The Panthers making the long trip from the East coast to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle is 1-1, scored 50 total points and allowed 61 points for a -11 point differential. They return home after their upset win at Detroit last week as a 4.5-point dog, 37-31. This coming after blowing a first half lead in week 1 at home to the Rams and losing 13-30. QB Geno Smith has played well, with three TD's and no INT's. He threw for 328 yards on the road last week. Carolina is 0-2 S/U and 0-1-1 ATS after a pair of games. They opened with a loss at Atlanta, 10-24 and then lost last week to New Orleans, 17-20. They failed to cover week one and pushed week two. The Panthers offense has just 281 yards in game one and 239 last week at home. Don't see the Panthers offense being able to stay with this Seahawks team that has lots of weapons on offense. I'll lay the points with Seattle. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Titans +3.5 v. Browns | 3-27 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
Tennessee Titans are 1-1 to start the season as three teams are all tied for the AFC South with a 1-1 record. The Titans averaged just 21 ppg thus far while allowing 20 ppg. The Titans opened the season with a loss at New Orleans, 15-16 and then won last wee at home over the Chargers, 27-24. They covered both games. They have rushed for 245 total yards and passed for another 381 total yards. Ryan Tannehill tossed three INT's in the opener but rebounded with None in their win over the Chargers to go with one TD. Derrick Henry is one of the best backs in the league, but he's yet to hit 100 yards. He rushed for 63 in the opener and then 80 yards last week. The Cleveland Browns had high hopes this season with Watson finally getting a full season at QB and arguably the best running back in Nick Chubb. Well, Chubb went down last week and will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. That will lead Jerome Ford to pickup the slack. Ford did rush for 106 yards after Chubb went down last week. Still, huge loss for this team. What made the injury even worse was losing the game to the Steelers, 22-26, even though they held Pittsburgh to just 255 yards of offense. I'm going to take Tennessee this week and see if Ford can really pick up the huge hole left by Chuff. Play Tennessee. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | 6-20 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions pulled the big upset in week one when they went into Kansas City and got the win, 21-20, as a 4-point dog. They fell off last week, losing at home as a 4.5-point favorite to the Seattle Seahawks, 31-37. They have outgained their opponents on the ground, 110-86. They also have more passing yards per game at 283-268.5. QB Jared Goff has four TD's and just one INT. Atlanta off to a 2-0 S/U and 1-1 ATS start. The Falcons play their first road game here today after winning at home over Carolina, 24-10 and then at home over Green Bay, 25-24. The Falcons have been great on the ground, with 170.5 yard average. They haven't had to put much pressure on rookie QB Desmond Ridder who has been effective. Ridder has 2 TD's and just 1 INT this season. The Detroit defense has only allowed an average of 86 yards on the ground so this should be an interesting matchup. I'll take the points with Atlanta. -------------------------------------------------------- | |||||||
09-18-23 | Browns v. Steelers +2 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Cleveland opened last week with a big AFC win over in-state rivals Cincinnati, 24-3. The Browns covered the pick'em line and went under the 46.5 point total. Cleveland had 206 yards on the ground and 144 passing yards for 350 total yards. Best news was they held the Bengals to just 142 total yards. Deshaun Watson was 16-of29 for 154 yards with one TD and one INT. Nick Chubb rushed for 106 yards and a 5.9 rypa average. Pittsburgh was manhandled last week at home by San Francisco, 7-30. They failed to cover the 1-point dog line and went under the 41.5-point total. They had just 239 total yards with 41 rushing yards. They allowed 391 yards to the 49ers. Kenny Pickett was 31-of46 for 232 yards with one TD and NO INT's. Since the Steelers played from behind they didn't get to establish much on the ground with Najee Harris having just 31 yards. The Steelers defense looked horrible last week and they are much better then showed. The Browns will be a daunting task on the ground, but I look for the Steelers to rebound here and win this second straight home game. Play Steelers. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Seahawks +5 v. Lions | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Seattle comes into this road game after blowing a halftime lead last week at home against the Rams. Leading 13-7 at the break, the Seahawks were outscored 0-24 by the Rams in the second half to start their season with a loss. Seattle had just 180 yards in the game (85 rush/95 pass) while allowing the Rams 426 yards. The Detroit Lions pulled the big shocker in week 1 with a win on the road at defending champion Kansas City, 21-20. The Lions had 368 yards of offense and held the hi-flying Chiefs offense to just 316 yards. J. Goff led the passing with 22-of-35 for 253 yards and a TD while D.Swift led the rushing with 178 yards on the ground and a TD. The Lions return home this Sunday and while they are a decent favorite, which hasn't happened very often, I have to think they could be in for a letdown this week. I'm going to take the points with the visitors in this one. Play Seattle. | |||||||
09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
Minnesota hits the road here to start week 2 as the Vikings play at Philadelphia. The Vikings and Eagles both coming off excellent seasons last year with Minnesota at 13-4 and the Eagles 14.3. The Eagles just coming up short in the Super Bowl, losing to the Chiefs. Last year the Vikings played at Philly in week two again, losing this matchup last year, 7-24. The Vikings coming off that week one loss to the Bucs, 17-20 at home. The Vikings used the pass extensively last week, rushing for just 41 total yards. QB Kirk Cousins was 33-of-44 for 344 yards and two TD's. The Vikings defense allowed just 242 total yards to the Bucs and held them to nine total first downs. The Eagles opened with a tough game at New England and were able to escape with the win, 25-20. The Eagles jumped out to a 16-0 lead over the Pats, but had to hold on for the win. The Eagles had just 251 totals yards as Jalen Hurts went 22-of-33 for 170 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles have had to adjust to both new offensive and defensive coordinators this year. This was an Eagles team that ranked first in the NFL in total defense last year. If the Vikings can establish a rushing game here on Sunday they should be able to compete and keep Hurts and the Eagles offense off the field. I'm still looking for the Eagle to adjust to new coordinators and early in the season is the time to take advantage. Play Minnesota plus the points. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Cowboys v. Giants +3.5 | 40-0 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 33 m | Show | |
Already a key NFC East battle here on Sunday night has the NY Giants hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams were 1-2 in the preseason. The Giants scored 61 points and allowed 72 while the Cowboys scored 68 and allowed 66. The Cowboys turn the backfield over to Tony Pollard with the departure of Ezekiel Elliot to the Patriots. Dak Prescot is back and healthy. The Cowboys are one of the favorites to get to the Super Bowl, despite a disappointing end to last season. Their defense will be great again this year, led by LB Micah Parsons. The Giants surprised everyone by making the playoffs last year and winning their first playoff game since Super Bowl 46. QB Daniel Jones is much improved and RB Saquon Barkely is back after a contract dispute. I know it's early, but I like the Giants here to win this game. But I'll gladly take the points too. Play NY Giants. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 92 h 0 m | Show | |
The season starts with a big rivalry already as the Cleveland Browns host the Cincinnati Bengals in this Battle for Ohio. Bot teams didn't do much in preseason as Cleveland finished 1-2-1 and scored 86 points in their four games. The Bengals were 0-2-1 and scored 51 points while allowing 71 points. Cincinnati won in double digits for the second consecutive season last year. The offense will be very good once again with Burrows at QB, Mixon in the back field and a core of excellent receivers. Burrows suffered a calf injury in preseason but is probable for this contest. The Bengals defense lost some key players in the secondary with Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell both departing. The Browns look to get back to the postseason after missing the playoffs the last two years. DeShaun Watson will be the key cog for this team after starting just six games last year and looking very rusty. This offense has one of the best backs in the NFL in Nick Chubb so that should take some heat off Watson. With Burrow not playing in the preseason I'll look for him to take some time to get back on track. I like the home dog Browns in this opener. | |||||||
09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +2.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 60 m | Show | |
The Pittsburgh Steelers and 49ers open the season here in Pittsburgh. The Steelers were a perfect 3-0 in the preseason and outscored their opponents by a 78-32 margin. Meanwhile, the 49ers were 1-2 in the preseason and scored just 40 points while allowing 77. This will be the sophomore season for Steelers QB Kenny Pickett. You can expect the reigns to be pulled off him this year. Last year he was held back but not this year. A lot is expected out of the 2nd season QB and I do look for him to have a breakout year. He can do it throwing and with his legs. It looks like Brock Purdy will start for the 49ers after the bad injury in the playoffs vs the Eagles. Should be interesting against a Steelers teams that was very good at intercepting the ball last year. I like home dogs, especially ones coming off impressive preseasons with the better QB playing. I'll take the Steelers on Sunday. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Titans +3 v. Saints | 15-16 | Win | 105 | 88 h 11 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Saints came off their preseason with a 2-1 record and outscored opponents by a 61-58 mark. As for the Titans, they also were 2-1 and outscored opponents 64-46. The Titans hope to rebound from a 7-10 season that saw them drop their last seven games. Mike Vrabel will be in his sixth season and the team under his control haven't missed the playoffs in two straight seasons. They come back with QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. They added WR DeAndre Hopkins which should help the receiving corp. The New Orleans Saints have seen their win totals drop each of the last four seasons to just seven wins last year. In comes new QB Derek Carr. This might be the first time since Drew Brees that they will have a solid option at QB. Word is that WR Michael Thomas looks like his old self and could give a huge boost to both Carr and the receivers. Thomas has battled injuries over the last few seasons that has seen his playing time drop drastically. The Titans want to prove they aren't the team that finished last season. It will yet to be seen if Carr can keep the mistakes that plagued him in Vegas last year to a minimum. I have to take the points here with Henry carrying the load here on Sunday. Play Tennessee. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Cardinals v. Commanders -7 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 21 m | Show |
Arizona had a good preseason, going 2-1. However, they were outscored 46-72. Washington was a perfect 3-0 and scored 67 points while allowing 62. The Commanders came off a decent season last year. HC Ron Rivera had to shuffle some QB's, but the team performed well and finished 8-8-1, narrowly missing the playoffs. They start this season with a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy. The team was also sold as Daniel Snyder gave up ownership to Josh Harris. All these changes could be a new start for the Commanders. The defense has a lot of talent and stacked with draft picks. The D-Line is made up of all 1st round picks. The Defense finished 7th last year in scoring and should be even better this year. The Cardinals could and likely will be the worst team in the division this year. QB Kyler Murray will be out with an ACL tear and that leave David Blough and Jeff Driskell as the candidates. I see a huge difference in talent between these teams. I especially like the Commanders defense and they should shut down this anemic Cardinals attack. Take Washington here in week one. | |||||||
02-12-23 | Chiefs +2 v. Eagles | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show | |
You can make a case for either side, but a few things separate these teams for me. First is experience. That all falls to the Chiefs, from head coach Andy Reid all the way to QB Patrick Mahomes. They have been here and done it. Plus, you now give Reid two weeks to prepare for this game? You know he's going to come up with some crazy stuff to throw a the Eagles. Mahomes high ankle sprain should be good to go too. The Eagles really had an easy road to get here against the Giants and then playing a 49ers team that had to put Christian McCaffrey at QB at one point. They really have been challenged by a good offense of late and that will come on Sunday. The factor that swayed this game for me is the experience factor and all those check marks line up on the Chiefs. I'll be betting the Chiefs come Sunday. | |||||||
01-29-23 | Bengals +1.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -125 | 149 h 31 m | Show |
AT this point of the season you can pretty much make a case for either side in a matchup. The Bengals jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week at Buffalo and really shut down one of the best offenses in the NFL and QB's in Josh Allen. It was a complete game for the Bengals who controlled the game from the opening kickoff to the final whistle. If QB Jeff Burrow were to retire today, he would have the highest completion rate EVER in the NFL among QB's. Pretty impressive. The Chiefs hosted the Jaguars last week and while I had KC, the Jags got the back door cover on the last drive. Happens, they could allow a field goals so the Chiefs played a prevent defense and allowed the Jags to march down the field in last minute to get a field goal to cover the spread. But the biggest news was the high ankle sprain to QB Patrick Mahomes. He came out a a brief time, but came back in and finished with 195 yards and two passing td's. QB Chad Henne came into the game and led the Chiefs on a 98-yard touchdown drive while Mahomes was being tended to. Mahomes vows to play this week and I believe he will play. However, we will see a different Mahomes here in this game. One that can't scramble as well and definitely won't be doing a lot of running. He will be more of a drop back passer and will likely have more "dump off" options. This game comes down to QB's. I feel Burrows is arguably the best QB in the NFL and he proved it last week. Yes, Mahomes is great, but how limited will his game be with an injury that some players take weeks off to heal from? I'll take the Bengals and Burrow in this game. Play Cincinnati. | |||||||
01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 104 h 50 m | Show |
The Dallas Cowboys sent Tom Brady and the Bucs home with their dominating performance in the Wild Card game last week, 31-14. Dak Prescot was red-hot, throwing four TD's and running in another. Now the Cowboys will hit the road for this Divisional game at San Francisco. The 49ers are the hottest team with 11 straight wins and QB Brock Purdy, last man in the draft taken last year, now proving his worth. The 49ers are the best defense in the league and lead in point differential with a +10.6 mark. Don't put a lot of stock into that Cowboys win last week, the Bucs have looked bad all season as they limped into the playoff spot with a losing record. Dallas actually has the short week to prepare having played on Monday night. I expect the 49ers to be run heavy in this game with Chrisitan McCaffrey carrying the load. This team is filled with weapons on offense and the Cowboys won't have the cake walk they had last week. Also, the 49ers defense will give Dak plenty of problems here this week. I look for a higher scoring game here if the weather permits and the 49ers in a blowout win. My Playoff Game of the Year is on the San Francisco 49ers. | |||||||
01-21-23 | Giants +7.5 v. Eagles | 7-38 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 16 m | Show | |
The NFC East battle between the NY Giants and Philadelphia Eagles will once again take place here on Saturday. The Eagles had the NO 1 seed in the NFC with their win over the Giants in week 18. The Giants rested most of their starters in that game with nothing to play for. They hit the road last week and beat Minnesota, 31-24. QB David Jones shined as he threw for over 300 yards and a pair of TD's while also using his legs to get key yards totaling 7. That performance earned him the status of being the only player in NFL history to throw for 300 yards and 2 TD's while also rushing for more than 70 yards in a playoff games. The Eagles had last week off after beating the Giants in the final week of the regular season. QB Jalen Hurts returned after missing weeks 16 and 17. The Eagles defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL with a 389.1 average per game. However, the did fail to cover three of their last four games heading into this contest. The Giants have been a great playoff road team, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 tries. They are also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games on grass. I will take the points here with the Giants as Jones will be the deciding factor in this cover. Play NY Giants. | |||||||
01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs -8.5 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Another miraculous comeback in the NFL last week, something we've seem much of lately, as the Jacksonville Jaguars looked horrible in their first half vs the Chargers. But a different team came out of the locker in the 2nd half and rallied to beat the Chargers, 31-20 behind Trevor Lawrence's four touchdowns. Now the young Jags will have to face the very experienced Kansas City Chiefs on the road. That is a big edge for me in this game, the experience of the Chiefs over the Jags. The Chiefs also had last week off with the first round bye and will be well prepared and rested for this game. I have high hopes for this Jaguars team with all the young talent, but it's not their season yet. The Chiefs still remain a big favorite to make the Super Bowl and I will take them here today. Play Kansas City. | |||||||
01-16-23 | Cowboys v. Bucs +3 | 31-14 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
Monday Night Football has the Cowboys playing at the Tampa Bay Bucs. For the first time in his career Tom Brady had a losing season with a team. That and the fact that on paper the Cowboys are the better team is why the Bucs are a home dog of a Field goal here on Monday. Yes, you can make many arguments why to back the Cowboys here on Monday. How poorly this Bucs team played this year, how much trouble they had putting points on the board, their last place rushing offense.... and on and on. However, I'm backing the Bucs for one reason and only one reason here on Monday and that reason is TOM BRADY. It's playoff time and that's where Tom shines. Now he is a home dog.... I'll take that shot here tonight. Give me the points at home with Tom Brady in the playoffs anytime. Take Tampa Bay tonight. | |||||||
01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -8.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 19 m | Show | |
If you look strictly at the best covering teams in the NFL this year, then you need look no further than the Bengals. They were 11-4 on the season vs the spread and only the Giants had a better spread covering percentage. Can't say the same for the Ravens who where just 7-9 vs the number. The Ravens closed out their season with a loss to the Bengals on the road, 16-27, but covered the 12-point dog line. That makes six games in a row they have scored more than 17 points. Most of that is due to Lamar Jackson being out of the lineup. Right now it's a question if Jackson will be able to play this week. If he doesn't it could get ugly for the Ravens offense. Baltimore finished 16th in total offense while Cincinnati was 8th (4th in passing). The Bengals have been very good at home, going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. They are also 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games on field turf. I like the Bengals here on Sunday, especially if Jackson isn't in the lineup again. Play Cincinnati. | |||||||
01-15-23 | Giants +3 v. Vikings | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
The NY Giants covered their fourth straight game and six of their last seven after losing to Philadelphia in the regular season finale, 16-22, as a 16.5-point dog. The Giants offense was mediocre all season, finishing 19th overall though 5th in rushing. The Vikings were 7th ranked on offense, 28th rushing and 6th passing. The Giants defense ranks 25th while the Vikings are 31st. This will be the first time in six years that the Giants will have made the postseason. These teams met just three weeks in Minnesota with the Vikings winning a close game, 27-24. The Vikings closed out their regular season with a win over the Bears, 29-13, covering the 6.5-point line. That cover snapped a four game spread losing streak. The Giants have covered their last four road games and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff road games. The Vikings are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs the NFC. The road team has covered nine of the last 13 in this series and I'll be on the road team here today. Play the Giants. | |||||||
01-15-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -13.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
The Miami Dolphins make the trip North to take on the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins just did get into the postseason with their close win over the Jets in the final week. These teams split the two regular season games. The Dolphins beat the Bills back in Week 3 in Miami, 21-19. covering the four-point dog line. They lost on Dec 17 at Buffalo, 29-32, as a 7-point dog. There is a possibility that they could get Tua Tagovailoa back this week after he's missed time with a concussion. The Dolphins look for the huge upset against a Bills team that has won seven straight games. Buffalo has the 2nd ranked offense and the fourth ranked defense in the NFL. They also have the best point differential in the league at +10.6. Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense didn't do well down the stretch, allowing five of the final six opponents to score at least 23 points. Their defense has dropped to 18th in the NFL. The Dolphins are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games on turf and 0-4 ATS in their last four playoff games. Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS their last 11 at home vs the Dolphins and have won the last six straight up. The Dolphins have not found an answer for Bills QB Josh Allen who has torched them. In his 10 games vs the Dolphins he as 27 TD's and 5 INT's. At home, Allen has a +16.6 average margin of victory over the Dolphins. I'm taking the Bills here on Sunday as my Wild Card Game of the Year. | |||||||
01-14-23 | Chargers v. Jaguars +2.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show | |
This playoff game will feature two of the young, emerging QB's in the NFL with Justin Herbert for the Chargers taking on Trevor Lawrence of the Jags. The Jaguars had an incredible run this season just to make the playoffs. HC Doug Peterson has done a great job with this team after the debacle left by Urban Meyer. Jacksonville was 4-8 at one juncture of the season and was already looking toward the NFL draft. However, five straight wins later they took control of the AFC South. And, for the first time since 2018, they will host a playoff game. Also look for the Jags to take advantage of a poor Chargers rush defense that allows 145.8 ppg this year. Also, I'm not a fan of Chargers HC Staley. I feel he's made some bad coaching decisions and this is one intangible that goes to the Jags. I'm looking for Jacksonville to control the ball on the ground and keep Herbert and his receivers off the field. I'll take the Jags at home here in week one of the playoffs. | |||||||
01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers -9.5 | 23-41 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show | |
The Seattle Seahawks are all Lions fans today after they backed their way into the Playoffs when the Lions went into Lambeau field and beat the Green Bay Packers. If I had a vote, Dan Campbell of the lions would get NFL Coach of the Year. The 9-8 Seahawks don't have to travel far as they play the 13-4 49ers. The Seahawks (9-8) are the No 7 seed in the playoffs. These teams have met two times this year with the 49ers taking both games. The 49ers have been on a roll, winning 10 straight games. The Niners lost both their 1 and 2 QB's when Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo both when down with injuries. However, Rookie Brock Purdy has been excellent in the role of QB with 13 TD's and just three INT's. The 49ers backbone is their defense, with the top ranked defense. They also allow just 16.3 ppg (tops in the NFL) and have held the Seahawks to just 20 points total in both games this year. I don't see any problem here today for the 49ers. Take San Francisco. | |||||||
01-08-23 | Bucs v. Falcons -3.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
The Tampa Bay Bucs are 8-8 on the season and just 3-4 on the road as they head to Atlanta for this AFC South contest. The Bucs beat the Panthers last week, 30-24 while the Falcons beat the Cardinals, 20-19. The Bucs QB Tom Brady has never lost to the Falcons and who can forget that NFL Super Bowl combeack he led when with the Patriots. The Bucs are the 4th seed in the playoffs. HC Todd Bowles said he will play the starters here today. Though have to wonder how long Brady will be in the game. Should he come out Blaine Gabbert would take over. The Bucs average just 18.5 ppgs this season and are last in rushing. The Falcons have lost six of their last eight and play for pride here today. Desmond Ridder will make his fourth pro start today. The Bucs already have offensive line issues so with that I don't expect Brady to be in this game a long time. The Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. I have to believe this game means more to the Falcons then the Bucs. Play Atlanta. | |||||||
01-08-23 | Vikings v. Bears +7.5 | 29-13 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Final week of the season and the Bears only can look to break a nine game losing streak here today at Soldier Field. As for the Vikings they are still playing for position in the NFC playoff picture. The Bears got clobbered last week by the Lions, 10-41 for their ninth straight loss. The Vikings are also coming off a loss last week as the Packers pounded them, 17-41. The Bears will be without QB Justin Fields who will sit out with various injuries today. Nathan Peterman will get the start. A lot of Bears younger players will try to impress for better roles next season with this team or another team. The Vikings looked like one of the best after nine weeks, going 8-1. Then Dallas beat them badly, 3-40. Since then, they are just 4-3. The Vikings have the division won, but a win today could improve their playoff position. I believe the Vikings will do just enough to win here today, but not be able to cover this big line. Play Chicago. | |||||||
01-07-23 | Titans +7 v. Jaguars | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
The AFC South title is on the line as the final week of the regular season begins here on Saturday with a pair of games. The Titans can salvage a bad finish to the season with a win here and playoff berth, while the Jaguars are looking to win five straight. The Jaguars have a one-game lead over the Titans with their 8-8 mark and the Titans 7-9. A Tennessee win and they would take the division because of their better AFC South record. A Jags loss and they could still make the playoffs, but they need help with losses by the Pats, Dolphins and Steelers. With Ryan Tannehill out at QB for the Titans, Mike Vrabel will start Joshua Dobbs over his rookie backup. Dobbs will be making only his second start of his six season NFL career. But I like this move from Vrable as Dobbs is highly intelligent, though lacking starter experience. The only issue is that Dobbs has only been with the team a few weeks. What I also like about this spot is that Vrable has had two weeks to prepare for this game with the Titans off last week. The Pressure is on the Jags today as they are a pretty big favorite. The Jags have done well as a dog, but as much as the chalk. In all likelihood a Jax loss puts them out of the playoffs. Vrable also had done great with teams in the dog role, covering at a very high rate. Plus add the fact that RB Derrick Henry is healthy for this game and I believe the Titans have a great shot here today to win. But lets take the points anyways. Play Tennessee. | |||||||
01-07-23 | Chiefs v. Raiders +9.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -114 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
The Kansas City Chiefs will have all hands on deck here on Sunday as a win will give them the AFC best record and home field throughout the playoffs. The Raiders season is done, QB Derek Carr likely done with the Raiders as Jarrett Stidham makes his second straight start here today. Stidham did well vs the NFL's top defense last week with both his arm and legs, but the Raiders came up just short at home. Stidham passed for 365 yards in that loss. Another potential big loss is that of AFC leading rusher Josh Jacobs. While Jacobs has some nagging injuries, it's a personal issue that may keep him out today. These teams last met back in week 5 and the Raiders comeback fell just short in the loss at KC, 29-30. Jacobs rushed for 154 yards in that contest. KC qb Patrick Mahomes has dominated the Raiders, going 8-1 in career with 26 TD's and just three INT's. The Vegas defense is 29th in the league so look for Mahomes to torch them again here on Saturday. Chiefs should win here today, but can they cover the big spread? I look for the Raiders with Stidham to at least stay inside the number as the KC starters might be pulled if they get up by double digits in this game. No pressure on the Raiders also, and that also helps. I'll take Vegas here on Saturday. | |||||||
01-01-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
AFC North Clash here on Sunday has the Pittsburgh Steelers not officially elminated from the playoffs but in need in help and a win here on Sunday. The Steelers are 7-8 on the season and have won two straight games. They scored a late touchdown last week to beat the Raiders, 13-10, as a 2.5-point favorite. They held the Raiders to just 201 totals yards and 58 rushing yards. The Baltimore Ravens have secured a playoffs spot with their 10-5 record. The Ravens beat the Falcons last week 17-9, as a 6.5-point favorite. The Ravens will one again be without QB Lamar Jackson, who is out with a knee injury. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five, 16-7-3 ATS their last 26 games in January and 9-4-1 ATS their last 14 in Week 17. The Steelers are also 2-5 Ov/Un in their last seven vs the NFC North and 22-47-1 Ov/Un in their last 70 road games. The Ravens are 1-5-1 their last seven vs the AFC and AFC North. They are also 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games. The Ravens have gone under in their last four games, under in their last eight on field turf and under in six straight at home. The Dog is 20-6-3 ATS the last 29 meetings between these teams. These teams have also gone under in six of the last eight in Baltimore and under in four straight overall. I'm taking the Steelers and the UNDER here today in a must win spot against a Baltimore team that I don't expect to get many points. | |||||||
01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Just two weeks left in the regular season and the Minnesota Vikings have wrapped-up the NFC North Division with a 12-3 record. They are 5-games ahead of both Detroit and the Packers. Packers need a win here today to keep their postseason hopes alive. The Vikings beat the Giants last week, 27-24, as a 4.5-point favorite. The Packers went to Miami and beat the Dolphins, 26-20, as a 3.5- point favorite. The Packers were +3 in turnover ratio in that game. The Vikings are just 3-10 ATS their last 13 vs a team with a losing record. The Packers do well on the grass, going 17-7 ATS their last 24. The Vikings are 5-1 Ov/Un in their last six vs the NFC North and 8-1 Ov/Un in their last nine on hte road vs a team with a losing home record. They have also gone over in five straight games. The Packers are 11-5 Ov/Un in their last 16 vs the NFC North and 8-3 Ov/Un in their last 11 games in week 17 of the season. The Packers have covered nine of the last 13 vs the Vikings in Green Bay and the home team is 9-4 ATS the last 13. In addition, these games have gone over in four of their last five Meetings. Take the Packers today. | |||||||
01-01-23 | Jets v. Seahawks +2 | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Two teams in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hops alive meet today as the Seahawks host the Jets. Both teams are 7-8 and both have a narrow slot at make the Wild Card playoffs, but both must win here today. The Jets lost their last home game of the season last week to the Jaguars, 3-19. It was their fifth loss in the last six weeks. Seattle also lost last week to the Cheifs, 10-24. The Jets would be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and will also need the Pats to lose a game. The Seahawks are 8th in the West but will need to not only win, but will also need a Washington and Green Bay loss to get in. These two teams are very evenly matched and with Zach Wilson benched again that actually will help the Jets. But I think it's the Seattle defense that will step up today and do just enough to get the Seahawks the win in what will be a close finish. Take the point or so with Seattle here today. | |||||||
12-25-22 | Packers +3.5 v. Dolphins | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
The Miami Dolphins can take a step closer to a Wild Card slot in the AFC with a win today over the Green Bay Packers. The Dolphins are 8-6 in the AFC East, but with the Buffalo win on Saturday they Bills locked up the division. The Packers are 6-8 overall and while not mathematically eliminated, they have a tall task to get the playoffs and a must win here today. The Packers are coming off a win over the Rams last week, 24-12 as a 7.5-point home favorite. That made two wins in a row for thee Packers. Miami lost a close game to the Bills last week in Buffalo, 29-32, as a 7-point dog. That loss makes three losses in a row for the Dolphins. If the Packers can win here today on the road, they will finish the season at home on Lambeau Field for their final two games. Dolphins' center Mitch Morse did not return after being evaluated for a head injury in the second half of last week's game vs the Bills. He is listed as questionable today and he's the one that calls out the lanes and blocking assignments in audibles among snapping the ball. The Dolphins rank 27th in opponent third-down conversion percentage and they rank near the bottom of the league in passing defense (27th), scoring defense (26th), and red-zone defense (25th). The Pack has won four of the last five vs the Dolphins and today I'll take the points with the visitors. Play Green Bay. | |||||||
12-24-22 | Eagles +4.5 v. Cowboys | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
With the cyclone bomb hitting most of the country this weekend, we can fully expect the retractable roof here in Dallas to be closed for this game. Other than the weather, the big news here is that QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) will miss today's game at Dallas. Garner Minshew is expected to make the start in his place. Both these teams have clinched a playoff spot as the Eagles are 13-1 with the best record in the NFL and the Cowboys are 10-4. The Cowboys lost to the Eagles back in October when Cooper Rush was filling in for Dak Prescott. The Dallas defense, once one of the best in the league, has suffered injuries and it showed in their loss last week to the Jaguars. The Eagles clinch the NFC and Home field advantage and a first round bye with a win here today ad Dallas. The Cowboys would have to win out the rest of the way if they hope to get the East title. While Minshew won't bring the rushing dynamic to the Eagles, he is deadly accurate as a thrower and will change the game plan here today for the Eagles. Even without Minshew here today I like the Eagles who have the better defense and they want to lock up everything so they can rest a few weeks. Play Philly. | |||||||
12-19-22 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
The LA Rams might not be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but realistically their 4-9 record is not going to be good enough at this point. They did put some excitement into the game last week with the dramatic come-from-behind win over the Raiders with newly acquired QB Baker Mayfield. Mayfield led them to a pair of late fourth Quarter TD's, the last with just seconds to go to get the win. The Packers also having a bad season at just 5-8 overall. The Packers had last week off after beating the Bears the week before, 28-19, as a 3.5-point favorite. The Packers are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games and 1-4 ATS in their last five at home. It looks to be a cold and possibly snowy night in Green Bay around 20 degrees with some snow likely. Mayfield should be used to it from his days in Cleveland. Lets see if the magic is there again for Mayfield and the Rams. I'll play the Rams. | |||||||
12-18-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Bucs | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
The Cincinnati Bengals will have extra incentive here today after AFC North co-leader Baltimore lost on Saturday at Cleveland, 3-13. A win by the Bengals today and they take over sole place atop the division. Tampa Bay leads the worst division in football, the NFC South. The Bucs might not make the playoffs if they were in any other division, but here they lead the South by one game over both the Panthers and Falcons with their 6-7 record. The Bucs got beat bad last week at San Francisco, 7-35, as a 3.5-point dog. The running game continues to be bad, gaining just 69 total yards. Tampa Bay ranks 18th overall in offense, but last in rushing with just 73 yards per game average. If not for their 5th rank pass attack this unit would be even worse. Cincinnati has the 5th ranked offense, 4th in passing. The Bengals won last week at home over the Browns, 23-10, as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bengals are now 9-1 ATS their last 10 on grass, 13-3 ATS their last 16 on the road and 14-3 ATS their last 17 following a straight up win. Meanwhile, the Bucs are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight at home, 1-9-1 ATS their last 10 games overall. Cincinnati just a much better team than this Tampa Bay club is right now. I'll take the Bengals. | |||||||
12-18-22 | Patriots +1.5 v. Raiders | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
The New England Patriots look to continue their dominance vs the Raiders here on Sunday. The Pats have won six straight vs the Raiders and now it's mentor vs mentee as Josh McDaniels looks to beat his old coach in Bill Bellichick. Somehow the Raiders collapsed (again) last week and let Baker Mayfield lead the Rams on two late TD drives to pull out the win, 17-16. A unsportsmanlike penalty on Raiders' Perryman sure helped in the defeat as the play was a sack and ended up 15 yards and a first down all because he slapped the ball out of the players hand. It's bad enough when physical mistakes hurt you, but stupid mental ones really are hard to take. That loss ended any hope of a Raiders playoff as they dropped to 5-8. While not mathematically eliminated, they sure look to be done as a Thanksgiving Turkey. The Pats need a win here today to improve on their 7-6 record and keep their playoff hopes alive. The Pats are a good bounce back team, evidenced by their 23-5 spread mark the last 28 times they have got 250 yards or fewer the previous game. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and 7-3 ATS their last 10 overall. Not only has the road team covered four of the last five in this series, but the Pats are 5-1 ATS their last six meetings. I'm taking the Patriots as the Raiders just keep finding ways to lose games. | |||||||
12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys struggled all game with the lowly Houston Texans last week, but finally pulled out the win, 27-23, as a 17-point favorite. The Texans didn't roll over against their intrastate rivals from the North. The win improved the Cowboys to 10-3, though they still trail the 1st place Eagles by two games. As for Jacksonville, they pulled the upset win at Tennessee last week, 36-22, as a 3-point dog. The Jags are now 7-1 on the season when they score 24 or more points. They are 0-6 when scoring fewer then 24 points. The Jags are in 2nd place in the AFC South, two games back of first place Tennessee. The Jags offense is decent, ranked 11th overall while Dallas is one slot higher at 10th. The Jags are 27th on defense while Dallas is much better at 5th. Dallas has been a good covering team, but not so much on the grass where they are 3-7 ATS their last 10. In addition the dog has covered four of the last five in this series. Question is, which Jax team do we see today, the one that scores 24 points or more and wins or the one that scores fewer than 24 and loses. I think we see the former here as they get those 24 or more points and cover this dog line. Play Jacksonville. | |||||||
12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Buffalo one of those sites where you have to keep an eye on the weather as we approach game time. Lake effect snow moved Buffalo to Detroit the week before Thanksgiving. Now with Lake effect snow, maybe not as bad as before, they look to stay in Buffalo. Not only does there look to be snow, but those pesky winds. For me the winds are what really effect a total and today we see 8 to 16 MPH with gusts as high as 28 MHP. That wind is bad enough, but throw in the snow and conditions won't be very good here on Saturday. Miami is a warm weather team and definitely won't like the conditions here today. The Dolphins coming off a loss last week at the Chargers, 17-23 with just 219 total yards. They could manage just 92 yards rushing and 127 yards passing in the loss. Buffalo beat the Jets last week, 20-12, as a 10-point favorite. Buffalo allowed 309 yards and had just 232 totals. The Bills also had five fewer first downs and 18 fewer offensive plays then the Jets. This AFC East showdown is crucial to the Dolphins, as they trail the Bills by two games in the East and a loss today and they will have to fight for a wild card. The weather conditions play a big role for me here today and as such I have to go against the Dolphins who are used to that muggy Florida warm weather. Play Buffalo. | |||||||
12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | 21-13 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Every game important at this juncture of the season. Teams also have to deal with lots of injuries. That's the case in the NFC West clash between the 49ers and Seahawks on Thursday. The 49ers lead the NFC West with a 9-4 record, two games ahead of 2nd place Seattle (7-6). These teams met back in week 2 in San Francisco where the 49ers walked away with that game, 27-7, as a 8-point favorite. they held the Seahawks to 30 yards rushing and 216 total yards. Not surprising that all these weeks later the Niners would have the league's top ranked defense and top ranked rushing defense. The Niners will be without QB JImmy Garappolo whi is out with a foot injury. That means Brock Purdy will get the start, though he has been hurting with a oblique and is officially listed as questionable. RB Christian McCaffrey is probable with a knee injury. Seattle has its share of injuries, especially at RB where Rashaad Penni is out with a fibula injury, RB Kenneth Walker III is probably with an ankle injury and RB DeeJay Dallas is questionable with a ankle injury. The Niners haven't like these short weeks, going 3-9 ATS their last 12 times on Thursday. Meanwhile, Seattle doesn't seem to mind the short week as much with a 8-2-2 ATS mark their last 12 times on Thursday. The Mariners are 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 meetings vs the 49ers in Seattle. They are also 15-6-1 ATS the last 22 meetings overall. I'll take the points at home against a backup QB here tonight. | |||||||
12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -4 | 30-24 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
The Carolina Panthers are in third place in the NFC South with a 4-8 record. The Panthers have won two of the last three games including two weeks ago over Denver, 23-10, as a pick'em. The Panthers had last week off to prepare for today's contest. The offense is not very good, ranked 30th overall. The defense is better, ranked at 19th overall and 14th vs the pass. The Panthers are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 vs the NFC. They are also 2-7 ATS their last nine road games. The Seattle Seahawks making a push for a postseason spot as they are 7-5 overall and 2nd in the NFC West, one game back of the 49ers. Seattle is coming off a win last week over the Rams, 27-23, failing to cover the 6.5-point favorite line. The Seattle offense ranks 9th overall (7th passing) and the defense is 30th. The Hawks have covered four of the last five meetings with the Panthers in Seattle. This is a long trip to the Northwest for the Panthers and I look for a Seattle win as they push for a playoff spot. | |||||||
12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions -2 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
The NFC North is already fully handled by the Minnesota Vikings as they sit atop the division with a 10-2 record. The next closest team are these Detroit Lions with a 5-7 record. Realistically it looks like only the Vikings will make the playoffs from the North. The Vikings have won two games in a row including last week over the Jets 27-22, as a 2.5-point favorite. Their offense was held to just 287 yards by a very good Jets defense. The Vikes offense ranks 19th overall in the league and 31st on defense, last in pass defense. Not very good for a team that is 10-2 overall on the season. The Lions may only have five wins, but they have been very competitive and have lost five games by four points or fewer this year. They are coming off a win over Jacksonville, 40-14, as a 1.5-point favorite. They have also won four of their last five games and covered five in a row. Their defense is dead last in the NFL but their offense ranks 7th overall. They have a very balanced offense, 10th in rushing, 9th in passing. The Vikings are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team with a losing record and 1-5-1 ATS their last seven vs the NFC. Conversely, the Lions are 7-0 ATS their last seven vs the NFC and 9-2 ATS their last 11 at home. Detroit has covered the last four in this series and four of the last five in Detroit. I like the Lions here today. | |||||||
12-11-22 | Ravens v. Steelers -1 | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Baltimore Ravens found themselves in a defensive battle last week vs the Denver Broncos and came out on top in a 10-9 win, but didn't come close to covering the 8.5-point favorite line. The Ravens had just 285 total yards of offense, but held the Broncos to just 272 yards. The Ravens have now failed to cover the spread in their last three games. The Ravens will also be without QB Lamar Jackson, who injured his knee early in the Broncos contest. The Ravens will look to Tyler Huntley here on Sunday. Baltimore's defense is good but not great as they are ranked 13th overall. They are 2nd vs the rush but 25th vs the pass. The offense was already 14th, 3rd rushing, but without Jackson at QB those numbers won't be as good. The Pittsburgh Steelers have won two straight games including last week at Atlanta, 19-16, as a 1-point favorite. The defense ranks just 24th with the offense at 26th. The Ravens are just 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games and 3-9 ATS vs a team with a losing record. They have also gone 0-4 ATS their last four vs the AFC North. The Steelers are 5-2 ATS their last seven games overall. They have also covered five of the last seven vs the Ravens. With Jackson out I'll take the Steelers here today. | |||||||
12-05-22 | Saints +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
NFC South clash here can put the whole division into turmoil with a Saints win. Right now the Bucs lead the South with a 5-6 record, the Falcons lost on Sunday dropped them to 5-8 and the Panthers and Saints pull up the rear at 4-8. A Saints win and three teams would have five wins. However, a Bucs win and they can pull into solo position in the South lead. The way the NFC is panning out, all four teams in the East could make the playoffs, the Vikings in the North with the Lions and Packers still in it and the 49ers and Seahawks in the West. It's likely that only the winner of the South will make the playoffs. The Saints were shutout last week at San Francisco, 0-13. They had just 260 total yards. The Saints offense ranks 15th in the NFL, 11th in passing. Tampa Bay's offense is just 18th overall, 5th in passing and last in rushing. Tampa Bay lost at Cleveland last week, 17-23, as a 3-point favorite. Despite Tom Brady at QB, the Bucs offense has scored more than 22 points just one time all season. The Bucs defense has dropped to 9th while the Saints are 11th. Tampa Bay is just 1-7-1 ATS their last nine games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games at home. The Saints have covered the last four in this series at Tampa Bay and seven of the last nine overall. The dog is also 4-1 ATS the last five. I'll take the points here tonight with the Saints. | |||||||
12-04-22 | Chargers v. Raiders -2 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West clash here as the Raiders host the Chargers. The KC Chiefs look to be cruising in the West with a 9-2 record and 3-game lead over the Chargers. The Chargers looking at a Wild Card at this point at 6-5. Vegas has won two straight and has improved to 4-7 and still in the hunt for a Wild Card if they can run the table. The Chargers are coming off a late 2-point conversion to beat Arizona last week, 25-24. The Chargers have the league's 14th ranked offense while Vegas comes in 7th. The Chargers have been a good over team, going over in 12 of their last 17 games. The Raiders won at Seattle last week, 40-34, behind over 200 yards rushing from RB Jacobs. The Raiders ended up with 576 total yards in that win last week. That makes two wins in a row after beating Denver in OT the week before, 22-16. The Raiders have now covered five of their last six vs the AFC and 5 of the last six against a winning team. The are also 9-4 ov/un in their last 13 vs the AFC West. These teams met back in week 1 of the season at LA and the Chargers walked away with the win, 24-19, just covering the 3.5-point line. I like the Raiders here today as they have confidence and momentum. Play Las Vegas. | |||||||
12-04-22 | Jaguars v. Lions | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-7 on the season and three-games back of the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South. The Jags are coming off a win over the Ravens last week at home, 28-27, as a 3-point dog. The Jags had just 38 rushing yards last week but got 294 through the air. The Jags offense ranks 10th in the NFL and 9th rushing so it was a off week for the rushing attack last week. Detroit is also 4-7 on the season and well behind division leading Minnesota who is 9-2. Detroit has really been playing well and gave Buffalo all it could handle on Thanksgiving day as they lost on a last second field goal by the Bills, 25-28, as a 9.5-point dog. That makes four straight covers by the Lions. The Jags are 6-13 ATS their last 19 when they rushed for fewer than 90 yards the previous game. They are also 5-13-1 ATS their last 19 games overall. Meanwhile, Detroit has covered eight of their last 10 games and are 15-7 ATS their last 22 games on the field turf. Jacksonville has gone over in six of their last seven road games. Detroit has gone over in five of their last seven home games and nine of their last 13 overall. I like the way this Lions team has played, especially at home. Play Detroit and the OVER for your Side & Total Parlay | |||||||
12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens -9.5 | 9-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
The first place Baltimore Ravens are tied with the Bengals for the AFC North lead. Both teams are 7-4 and looking to get sole position this week. While the Bengals will face the Chiefs, the Ravens face the reeling Broncos. Denver sure didn't expect this kind of season when they signed Russell Wilson in the offseason. Yet here they are, last in the AFC West with a 3-8 record. The Broncos offense has been anemic, scoring 10, 16 and 10 the last three games - all losses. In fact, they have over 21 points just one time all season and that was 23 vs the Raiders in a nine-point loss. The only saving grace has been their 3rd ranked defense. The Broncos are now 4-14 ATS their last 18 vs the AFC and 2-7 ATS their last nine on the road. The Ravens are coming off that tough loss last week at Jacksonville, 27-28, as a 3-point favorite. That loss snapped a four game win streak. The offense ranks 11th overall and the defense is 15th. The Ravens are 7-3 ATS their last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Ravens are also 10-4 ATS their last 14 vs the Broncos and 6-1 ATS their last seven at home. I'll take the Ravens here today against a Broncos team that just can't score. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |