Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-20-18 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 60 | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
There are some talented skill position players involved in this matchup. But both defenses are decent and weather is going to factor heavily. The forecast in Bloomington this weekend is for winds in the 20-40 miles per hour range. Wind more than anything other weather element is the key for an Under. Penn State's offense went against Michigan State and Ohio State in its last two games and managed to average only 21.5 points against those quality opponents. Indiana's offense has cooled off since entering Big Ten play. The Hooisers have failed to score more than 26 points in any of their last four games. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Akron v. Kent State UNDER 52 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Two struggling offenses meet in this matchup. Both team's have better defenses than offenses. Akron quarterback Kato Nelson is having a difficult time. The Zips have scored just 36 points during their last three games. They rank 125th in total yards. Kent ranks 115th in scoring. The Golden Flashes have broken the 24-point barrier only twice in seven games. They are averaging 16.6 points in their last five games. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Banged-up physically and mentally, TCU isn't going to be able to stay within double digits of Oklahoma. The teams met twice last season and Oklahoma won by 18 points and 34 points, respectively. The Horned Frogs are worse this season. If it weren't for a close win against Iowa State, TCU would be 0-4 in its last four games. TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson has been plagued by turnovers. TCU has failed to break the 17-point barrier in each of its last three games. Oklahoma is primed for a strong defensive effort being idle last week after losing to Texas two weeks ago. Oklahoma has won 19 of its last 21 Big 12 road contests and is 6-0 ATS in this spot since Lincoln Riley took over. Kyler Murray can't be held in check by TCU. | |||||||
10-18-18 | Stanford -130 v. Arizona State | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
Stanford opened with four wins in a row. Then the Cardinal lost two in a row and everybody seems down on them. I'm not especially since they have Bryce Love back from his ankle injury. The Cardinal losses came on the road to Notre Dame and to Utah when Love didn't play. Notre Dame is ranked fourth in the country. Utah has the best defense in the Pac-12. When healthy, Love is the best running back in the country. He was a monster when Stanford beat Arizona State, 34-24, last season rushing for 301 yards and three touchdowns. Stanford has a strong offensive line that can open holes for Love against a Sun Devils defense giving up 227.3 rushing yards in their last four games. Stanford has a coaching edge with David Shaw against Herm Edwards. This advantage is magnified with both teams coming off a bye. The Cardinal have defeated the Sun Devils in five of the past six meetings. Stanford also has covered 14 of the last 18 times following a bye. | |||||||
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 0 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 148 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a monster revenge spot for the Patriots. They were stunned by the Chiefs at home opening week of last season. The Patriots won't be taken by surprise this time by the Chiefs. New England has a better defense than Kansas City. The Patriots' offense also has come around with Julian Edelman back from suspension and Josh Gordon starting to make an impact. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. New England has covered 71 percent of its last 51 home games. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 141 h 23 m | Show | |
At 1-4, the Falcons are playing for their season. They absolutely can not take a home loss here to the lowly Buccaneers, who when last spotted were losing 48-10 to the Bears on the road. Injuries have ruined the Falcons' defense. But they still have the offense to pile up big points, especially going against a terrible Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom-two in yards and points given up per game. Matt Ryan is playing at a high level despite the Falcons' disappointing record. He has thrown nine touchdown passes in the last three weeks with no interceptions. Devonta Freeman is back healthy and rookie Calvin Ridley has emerged to be another huge receiving threat to go with Julio Jones. Jameis Winston is back at quarterback for the Bucs. Winston doesn't have a ground attack, though, and has turned the ball over more than any other NFC quarterback during the last three years. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
There is a perception that the Steelers aren't very good on the road. That's not true. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 in its eight road matchups. The Steelers are starting to come on, too, especially their defense, which has underperformed. I'm usually attracted to the better team in an underdog role, which is the case here. Ben Roethlisberger is a far superior quarterback to Andy Dalton and he has the more potent weapons. The Bengals and Dalton have been playing above their heads. Dalton still turns the ball over. He has seven interceptions and will be without his top red zone target, tight end, Tyler Eifert, and reliable backup running back Giovanni Bernard. Emerging second-year wideout John Ross may still also be out. Pittsburgh has owned the Bengals recently winning the past six times and eight of the last nine meetings. This includes four consecutive victories at Paul Brown Stadium. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | 34-42 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts are getting back a number of their key injured players. The Jets are in a flat spot. Andrew Luck trumps Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. That in a nutshell is why I like the underdog Colts. Indy is in must-win mode being 1-4. The Colts have been in each game, though, and actually could be 3-2 with better circumstances. The teams last met two seasons ago and Luck lit the Jets up throwing four touchdown passes in a 41-10 victory. Luck is close to being 100 percent again throwing for 829 yards and seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. The Colts are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton still is likely out, but the Colts are expected to get back from injury star linebacker Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker Jr.,who is their second-best linebacker, top running back, Marlon Mack, and offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Luck could catch a big break as the Jets' secondary could be down star cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad injury) and cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion). The Jets are in letdown territory after their impressive 34-16 dismantling of the Broncos this past Sunday. The Jets' other victory came opening week versus the Lions. The Jets then went flat the following week losing to the Dolphins, 20-12, as three-point home favorites. Some of the Jets' attention could be focused on their defensive coordinator, Kacy Rodgers, who is fighting a serious illness and may miss a second consecutive game. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
Derek Carr isn't coming through for Jon Gruden and Gruden isn't coming through for the Raiders. If it wasn't for a bizarre replay reversal that took the game away from the road Browns two weeks ago, the Raiders would be winless. They have lost by eight, 16 and 20 points in three of their four defeats. Carr has the most interceptions in the NFL with eight. The Raiders have failed to break the 21-point barrier in all but one of their last 10 games. Their defense lacks speed and playmakers ranking 30th in total yards and defensive scoring while accumulating only six sacks in five games. The Seahawks, by contrast, are showing life. They nearly dealt the Rams their first loss, losing 33-31 last Sunday. The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and their ground attack has become revitalized averaging 180 yards rushing the past two games. Oakland has given up at least 140 yards rushing in three of its past five games. Russell Wilson gives Seattle a monster edge at quarterback. Wilson will be highly effective in play-action now that the Seahawks have their ground attack energized. Note this game is in London. That's a factor that favors the Seahawks. Seattle is 2-3 and still has playoff hopes. So this becomes a near must-win spot. The Seahawks are motivated. The Raiders aren't likely to travel well. They are demoralized and lack confidence knowing their talent is below average. This is turning into a lost season for the 1-4 Raiders. Gruden has lost much of his coaching mystique. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio. | |||||||
10-13-18 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -110 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
This line is off. New Mexico was plus nine at UNLV last week. Now the line is around pick with the Lobos at Colorado State. I don't see it. I understand Colorado State has underachieved so far this season. But the Rams still average nearly 300 passing yards a game and their ground game picked up last week. The Lobos give up more than 33 points a game and rank 107th in total defense. Colorado State also has defeated New Mexico eight consecutive times, including 27-24 on the road last season. The Lobos have failed to cover during each of their last five trips to Colorado State. Don't expect the Rams not to be focused, though. They can't afford a home loss here with a road trip against Boise State looming next week if they want to make a bowl game. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Baylor +14.5 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Baylor has the ability to control clock and is good enough to take advantage of this flat spot to hang in against Texas. The Longhorns have won five in a row and are coming off a dramatic upset of Oklahoma last week. That's a huge rivalry game so the Longhorns' intensity figures to be down this week. They could take Baylor lightly knowing the Bears were beaten by Oklahoma, 66-33. That's been a pattern of Texas this season playing to the level of its competition. The Longhorns failed to cover a 22-point spread against Tulsa winning by only seven points and they didn't cover against Kansas State the week before meeting Oklahoma, winning 19-14 as 8 1/2-point favorites. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Pittsburgh +22 v. Notre Dame | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has casued Notre Dame problems in the past and is in a position to do it again. The Panthers have their confidence up after ending a two-game losing streak by defeating Syracuse, 44-37, in overtime last week. The Orange nearly had beaten Clemson the week before. The Panthers have athletes. They shouldn't be outclassed especially considering the spot Notre Dame is in. The Irish are coming off emotional victories against ranked opponents Stanford and Virginia Tech. The Irish are idle next week and also facing mid-term exams. So their focus may not be all there. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been a disappointment for Pittsburgh. However, the Panthers have two solid runners, Quadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, to help maintain ball control. The two rushed for a combined 299 yards against Syracuse. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Southern Miss v. North Texas UNDER 55.5 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
Southern Mississippi is much improved defensively yielding fewer than 19 points per game and ranking eighth in total yards. North Texas has cooled off failing to break the 27-point barrier in its last two games, including scoring just 27 points against UTEP in its last game. The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country. But a big key to the Under here is weather. The forecast is 100 percent chance rain with winds in the 10 to 20 miles per hour range. Heavy rain and wind could force a lot more running plays. Neither team runs the ball well. The Golden Eagles rank 119th in the nation in rushing, while North Texas rates 87th. Southern Mississippi also might be without its second-best wide receiver as Jaylond Adams is questionable with a leg injury. | |||||||
10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona. | |||||||
10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 44 h 31 m | Show |
TCU is fortunate not to have a three-game losing streak having nipped Iowa State in its last game on a field goal with 37 seconds left. The problem for the Horned Frogs, who were ranked 14th three weeks ago, is not their defense. That's still first-rate. It's struggling quarterback Shawn Robinson and an offense that managed just 16 points against Texas and 17 versus Iowa State in TCU's past two games. Robinson has a 4-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has failed to pass for more than 200 yards in all but one of TCU's five games this season. Darius Anderson, TCU's top running back, isn't helping either averaging 2.3 yards per carry in his last two games on 24 carries. Texas Tech has a middle-of-the-road run defense. The Red Raiders can handle TCU's offense right now especially given Robinson's lackluster performances. I also see TCU keeping Texas Tech's powerful offense in check just like last season when the Horned Frogs beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock, 27-3. TCU has the second-best scoring defense in the Big 12 yielding 20.8 points per game. The Horned Frogs also rank 12th in the country in fewest yards allowed per game. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
I consider Bill O'Brien a bottom-five coach. Anytime you have a coach that bad, especially in a favorite's role, the underdog is live. One of O'Brien's many faults is the way his team plays not to lose rather than win. This is reflected in the Texans failing to cover in eight of their last nine games. Their lone cover during this span was last Sunday when the Colts handed them the game by going for a fourth-and-four in overtime and failing to covert. The Texans also are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times when laying points in the regular season. Part of what makes O'Brien such a coaching underachiever is Houston has good talent. However, the Texans also have numerous flaws. DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt have to play super games to cover up the Texans' porous offensive line, lack of a running game, poor tight end play and injury-ravaged secondary. I'm not expecting the Texans to have their No. 1 running back, Lamar Miller, either. The Cowboys aren't fancy. You know what they're going to do, which is feed Ezekiel Elliott, throw short, safe passes and rely on a well-coached defense to hang in. This is a proper game plan and should result in a close game if not an outright Dallas victory. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition. San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday. The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach. Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14. The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes. Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chargers don't get injured Joey Bosa back yet, but defensive lineman Corey Liuget returns from suspension. That's a big plus for the Chargers' defense. The Chargers' defense is better than it has shown having gone up against the Chiefs and Rams, the two best offenses in the NFL. Certainly the Chargers are going to put up big points on a very bad Raiders defense. Philip Rivers is having another big season with multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. LA is a top-10 scoring and yardage team. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing nearly 31 points a game. Oakland is last in sacks and quarterback hits. Rivers is going to have plenty of time in the pocket to pick and choose. Making it worse for the Raiders is a fatigue factor. They wore down in Miami's humidity two weeks ago and last Sunday had to go overtime to beat the Browns at home. Baker Mayfield, making his NFL starting debut, picked the Raiders apart throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns. That bodes well for Rivers. The Raiders were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home. They are a very bad team. Their defense has no playmakers with Khalil Mack gone. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-10, when they hosted them last season. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Take away a miracle comeback against the Bears and the Packers would only have a win against Buffalo. The Packers were soundly whipped by a mediocre Redskins team two weeks ago when they last went on the road. Truth be told, Green Bay just isn't that good. The Packers should be taking points here not laying them, but their reputation precedes them. The Lions can take advantage of a work-in-progress Packers secondary that is starting rookie cornerback Josh Jackson and 35-year-old Tramon Williams with their trio of excellent wideouts. Kerryon Johnson has given the Lions a spark in the run game averaging more than six yards per carry during his last two games. So the Packers will have to respect the run something opponents have not had to do versus the Lions in past seasons. It's a tremendous step up for the Packers secondary and their weak-in-coverage linebackers going from Josh Allen at home to Matthew Stafford on the road inside a dome. Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to keep up. Not only is Rodgers far less than 100 percent, but Green Bay has a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Davonte Adams, Geromino Allison and Randall Cobb are all banged-up. Those are the Packers' three top wideouts. They are backed up by rookies. Cobb definitely is out. The Lions are up-and-down, but they showed what they could do at home when they upset the Patriots in their last game at Ford Field. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 51 | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
On paper this should be a shootout with Aaron Rodgers going against Matthew Stafford inside Detroit's fast track dome. The reality is different. Rodgers isn't 100 percent. His mobility and leg drive on his passes aren't the same. Green Bay also has a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Slot man Randall Cobb is out. Davante Adams and Geromino Allison may not play either. Rodgers is going to have to rely on rookie wide receivers, which he hasn't had much success doing before. Detroit has a key injury on offense - and it's below-the-radar. Guard T.J. Lang suffered a head injury last week. He's the Lions' best offensive lineman. I doubt he plays because of concussion procedures. Kenny Wiggins replaced Lang and got swallowed up by the Cowboys. There is going to be more running than usual between these teams, which will keep the clock going. The Lions are more committed to running the ball this week. The Packers have to protect Rodgers and their inexperienced wide receivers by running a lot, too. The Lions rank last in run defense so the Packers have even more reason to stay on the ground. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | 14-30 | Loss | -117 | 49 h 4 m | Show | |
Many props to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on their 4-0 record. But is Kansas City going undefeated? Heck no. The Chiefs have major flaws on defense and now they are facing the best defense in the NFL after opening against three sub-par defenses in the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers. Oh, yeah, the Chiefs also are in a terrible situational spot having just won a huge Monday night national TV game against division rival Denver in which they needed a stirring comeback to pull it off coming from 10 points down in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars give up the fewest points per game, yards and passing yards. They have the offense to put up points themselves when Blake Bortles plays well. I envision Bortles playing well against a porous Chiefs defense that is especially vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks such as Bortles. The Chiefs are weak, too, on pass defense and in defending against pass-catching running backs. Leonard Fournette is out for Jacksonville. But T.J. Yeldon is a capable of replacement and a much better receiving threat than Fournette. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are one the most underrated receiving tandems in the NFL. The Chiefs have surrendered 20 completions of at least 20 yards, which is the worst in the NFL. This is the right spot to fade the Chiefs in a letdown spot against a foe they do not match up well against. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Wyoming v. Hawaii -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 86 h 8 m | Show | |
Hawaii is better than expected this season especially quarterback Cole McDonald, who has already thrown for more than 2,000 yards and has a mind-boggling 24-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wyoming is bad this season. The Cowboys aren't getting the takeways like they did last season when they led the nation with 38 and they really miss Josh Allen. The Cowboys have failed to break 20-points in their last four games. They have just six takeaways and six sacks in their five games. Hawaii has a big home field advantage. The Rainbow Warriors also have a much superior passing attack and far more team speed. Hawaii won't take Wyoming lightly either after nearly losing to 1-4 San Jose State last week. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Colorado State -130 v. San Jose State | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
This is far more of a fade on San Jose State than an endorsement of Colorado State although I believe the Rams are due to play better starting here. San Jose State is 1-15 dating back to the start of last season. The Spartans are 0-4 this season and coming off a draining five overtime loss to Hawaii. Their defense, which ranks among the bottom-13 in the nation in yards, points and passing yards, is going to wear down fast after being on the field for more than 100 plays last week. Colorado State is a cut above San Jose State even this season. The Rams have won seven or more games in each of the past five seasons. They defeated the Spartans, 42-14, last season outgaining them by nearly 300 yards. While the Spartans are off that five overtime loss, Colorado State was idle. The Rams are rested and ready to turn around their season. They are in a good starting position to do that with this patsy. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Indiana +27 v. Ohio State | 26-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Indiana is 4-1 and has the quarterback, running back and coaching to take advantage of a huge flat spot here for Ohio State. The Buckeyes pulled out a dramatic road victory against Penn State last week. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games , too, taking on Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska following this game. So a letdown definitely is in store for the Buckeyes as they return home having staved off a major challenge by the upstart Nittany Lions. Indiana has covered in six of its last seven meetings with Ohio State. Peyton Ramsey leads the Big Ten in completion percentage and Stevie Scott is the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten. Scott averages 6.8 yards per carry. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 52.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm surprised to see a total this high when Central Michigan is involved. The Chippewas rank last in the nation in total yards and second-to-last in scoring averaging 16 points a game. Buffalo has an above average defense ranking among the top 60 in fewest yards and points allowed. Central Michigan's puny attack should be easy for the Bulls to put down. The under has won in 10 of Buffalo's last 13 road games, too. Central Michigan has a far more respectable defense ranking sixth in pass defense and 26th in yards per play. Buffalo has a below average offensive line and running attack. So the Bulls will have to attack Central Michigan's strength. There's a chance of rain in this matchup also, which would be a plus for the under. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Cincinnati has designs on making the Top-25. The Bearcats are yielding the second-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 and their offense is coming on behind quarterback Desmond Rider and running back Michael Warren. I don't see visting Tulane slowing down the Bearcats. Tulane gives up nearly 30 points a game and ranks 108th in yards allowed. Cincinnati is averaging more than 600 yards of total offense during its past three games. The Green Wave have covered only of their last seven road games and are in a letdown spot after ending an 11-game losing streak to Memphis by upsetting the Tigers last week as 14 1/2-point home 'dogs. | |||||||
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 49 m | Show |
The Patriots have their swagger back after rolling past previously unbeaten Miami, 38-7, this past Sunday. It was an easy victory for New England. The Colts, though, are mentally and physically gassed after playing a full overtime and losing in heartbreak fashion to the Texans, 37-34, on Sunday. Indy's defense has played better than expected, but it is below average and wearing down. The Colts defense faced 77 plays against the Eagles two weeks ago and 84 plays on Thursday. Now the Colts have to travel on a short week to New England. It's a huge disadvantage. The Patriots may not have Rob Gronkowski , but they get back Julian Edelman from suspension. Josh Gordon should be at full speed, too. Tom Brady has the weapons to pile up points against the weary Colts even if Gronk doesn't play. The Colts need a full effort to be competitive because they lack the overall talent and experience being one of the youngest teams in the league. The Colts have a new coaching staff that still is trying to figure things out. An ill-advised fourth-and-four call from their own 44-yard line with 27 seconds left in overtime failed allowing the Texans to pull out the victory in what should have finished as a tie game. That could linger mentally with the Colts. Andrew Luck is working his way back from serious shoulder injury. Most of his passes are short. Luck has no ground attack, a porous offensive line that was without both starting tackles against the Texans and isn't expected to have his best wide receiver by far, T.Y. Hilton, nor his top tight end, Jack Doyle. The Patriots are 6-0 against the Colts since Peyton Manning left Indy. They are averaging 42.3 points against the Colts during this time span. Luck doesn't have the arm, weapons and protection time to keep pace with Brady. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -3 | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a tremendous rivalry with a history of close games. Only six times in the last 23 meetings has one team won by more than seven points. However, I'm not anticipating a close game here, clearly siding with Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won the past three get togethers with the Ravens with their average win margin being 7.3 points. Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five caliber quarterback when playing at home. He doesn't have Le'Veon Bell, but he does have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is becoming an elite receiver. The Ravens defense can't stay with these two wideouts minus still suspended Jimmy Smith. A.J. Green exploited smallish Ravens cornerback Tavon Young scoring two touchdowns off him in Week 2. Brown and Smith-Schuster can do the same. The Ravens have one of the least efficient run offenses. The Steelers entered this week tied with the Cowboys for the second-most sacks with 11. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco especially without a ground attack and being on hostile ground against a proficient pass rush unit. | |||||||
09-30-18 | 49ers v. Chargers OVER 47 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 144 h 40 m | Show |
Philip Rivers is having another strong season and has the weapons to dismantle a 49ers secondary that has a cluster injury problem with a number of players out, including Richard Sherman. The Chargers' defense isn't nearly as strong without pass rushing star Joey Bosa, who is not expected back for another few weeks. The 49ers will miss Jimmy Garappolo, but C.J. Beathard is a capable backup and will have an entire week to prepare. The 49ers have underrated skill position players, including running back Matt Breida. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a master offensive coach. The 49ers will contribute their fair of points here and Rivers will shred San Francisco's vulnerable and battered secondary. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 51 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are a surprising 3-0. The Patriots have lost two in a row both on the road against the Jaguars and Lions. When was the last time the Patriots lost three straight regular season games under Bill Belichick? Try like never. Actually it occurred - back in 2002! I want the Patriots and Tom Brady going for me after they laid an egg on national television against Detroit Sunday night in a miserable performance. So I'm locking in now believing the line will become higher toward kickoff. Miami certainly deserves credit for its fast start. Ryan Tannehill is a huge improvement on Jay Cutler. Tannehill, though, is not an elite quarterback and Miami's overall talent is well below average. The Dolphins have hosted the Titans, whose quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn't 100 percent during the game, beat the Jets on the road when New York was on a short week following a huge road upset win against the Lions on a Monday night and took care of business this past Sunday versus the winless Raiders. The Dolphins are a bogus 3-0 team in search of a loss. It will come here. The Patriots have yet to get their offense fully going. That should change against this opponent and with Josh Gordon having had two weeks with the team. Gordon will provide a much needed outside threat that will allow better spacing for Rob Gronkowski. New England should get several key injured players back on defense. The Patriots have owned Miami in Foxboro winning the past nine times there, while going 7-2 ATS. They have won and covered the past five times. The matchup, spot and history all clearly point New England. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 63 h 43 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his moments in the sun. This won't be one of them. Not only have the Bears become an upper echelon defense with the addition of Khalil Mack, but they use a 3-4 alignment. Tampa Bay had not faced that type of defense until this past Monday when they hosted the Steelers. Fitzpatrick was under pressure on nearly half of his pass attempts. His passer rating for that game was 81.3 compared to 156.3 and 144.4 in his previous two starts. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman who doesn't have a ground game to fall back on. The Buccaneers rank 30th in rushing. I don't see Tampa Bay's offense doing much against the Bears. The spot is very bad, too, for the Buccaneers traveling on a short week after an exhausting Monday night effort when they rallied from a 30-10 deficit to lose 30-27. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in-progress, but he has an outstanding runner, Jordan Howard, and several reliable receivers, including Allen Robinson and Trey Burton. Trubisky also is operating against one of the worst defenses in the NFL and one that has a cluster injury problem in the secondary. The Buccaneers rate last in pass defense, second-to-last in yards allowed and 29th in scoring defense yielding 30.3 points a game. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -130 | 63 h 42 m | Show | |
The Lions are coming off a highly impressive nationally televised home win against the Patriots. I don't trust them to follow through on the road with another good performance. Dallas has one of the league's top defenses. One reason for this is coaching. I like the Dallas coaching staff to outwit talented but sometimes mistake-prone Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys have the pass rushers to bother Stafford. Dallas gives up fewer than 18 points per game and ranks third in fewest yards given up. The Cowboys defense is especially tough in the red zone, which is where the Lions can struggle. The problem for Dallas is offense. However, Ezekiel Elliott should be able to run on Detroit, which in turn will set up Dak Prescott. The Lions' linebackers are weak in coverage so Prescott should have success with his short passing style. This is an important game for the 1-2 Cowboys as two of their next three games are on the road with the home matchup during this span coming against the Jaguars. The Lions have a far bigger game on deck hosting the Packers next week. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 63 h 41 m | Show | |
No, not two weeks in a row. Not even close. The Bills don't have nearly the talent, nor the quarterback, to pull off back-to-back monster upsets after stunning the Vikings, 27-6, last Sunday. Buffalo had a couple of things going its way when it ambushed the Vikings in the biggest upset in 23 years: a strong pass rush facing a subpar offensive line and the element of surprise. The Packers have one of the best offensive left tackles in football in David Bakhitari and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is expected to play after being bothered by a bad back. Bakhitari can handle Jerry Hughes, who was a big key for the Bills in beating the Vikings. And the Packers certainly won't be taking Buffalo lightly. Green Bay is coming off a road loss to the Redskins. The timing was bad for the Packers in that game coming off consecutive division games, the previous one being an epic overtime tie against the Vikings. The Packers are solid, have a better defense that they showed in the first half against the Redskins and Aaron Rodgers still is a top-five quarterback even at less than 100 pecent. Rodgers has healthy receivers and his best running back, Aaron Jones, is back from suspension. The Packers are in take-care-of-business mode after an embarrassing loss while the Bills and their rookie quarterback, Jared Allen, are still on Cloud 9. So the Packers aren't going to get caught sleeping like the Vikings did. If the Packers play their "A" or "B" game they will cover a double-digit spread especially if the Bills are less than sharp. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons UNDER 54 | 37-36 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
This total has been steamed up. I understand the move given how well the Falcons and Matt Ryan looked last week in beating the Saints, 43-37. I also understand the Falcons have key defensive injuries with both of their safeties and top linebacker out. I still see this total movement as an overreaction and enough to get involved in the Under. Ryan carved up a bad New Orleans defense that has major concerns and injuries in its secondary. Discount that performance, though, and Ryan has a 2-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Falcons realize the need to have a balanced offense. They will run the ball a lot against the Bengals even with lead back Devonta Freeman out again. That is going to keep the clock moving. The Bengals have a solid defense. Geno Atkins is one of the better all-around defensive linemen the Falcons will face all season. Cincinnati gave up a lot of rushing yards to the Panthers last week. That's because the Bengals had trouble containing the Panthers' run-option. That's not the offense the Falcons use. The Falcons' multiple injuries in their secondary are a concern. Andy Dalton has played well, but he's never to be trusted on the road. He does have five interceptions already. The Bengals are without their best runner, too, with Joe Mixon out. Atlanta's pass rush should be improved with the expected return of Takk McKinley. He had recorded a sack in each of the first two games before missing the Saints game with a groin injury. | |||||||
09-29-18 | UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 46.5 | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 2 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened this total low - but not low enough given how putrid these offenses are and the slow tempo they play at. Texas El Paso ranks last in the nation in scoring 13.5 points per game. Texas San Antonio isn't much better rating 123rd averaging 17.2 points. Both teams are among the bottom-eight in yards gained. The defenses on these teams are much better than their offenses. These are two of the worst teams in Conference USA so a conservative game plan should be in place with a chance for a rare win. The Roadrunners have gone Under in their last seven Conference USA games. The Under also has cashed in four of the last five meetings. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Nevada v. Air Force OVER 64 | 28-25 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a large total, but not large enough for the game to go Under. Air Force beat Nevada, 45-42, last season. I can see a combined 80 plus points again in this season's matchup. The Wolf Pack's passing attack can do damage against an Air Force secondary giving up more than 290 yards through the air. Sparked by quarterback Ty Gangi, the Wolf Pack are averaging 40.8 points per game. Air Force lacks the pass rushers to slow down Gangi. Air Force, though, is going to be able to run on Nevada. The Falcons rank sixth in the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack are used to going against throwing teams. The over has cashed in 25 of Air Force's last 37 games. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Old Dominion v. East Carolina -5 | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 51 m | Show | |
Kudos to Old Dominion. The Monarchs stunned Virgina Tech, 49-35, as a 27 1/2-point underdog. The Hokies entered that matchup ranked 13th in the country. It was the biggest football victory in Old Dominion school history. It also causes a monster letdown spot for the Monarchs especially going on the road. Before that stunning win, the Monarchs were 0-3 with losses by 42 points to Liberty, Florida International and Charlotte. The Monarchs failed to cover any of those games. Old Dominion allows the sixth-most rushing yards in the nation and 35.8 points per game. East Carolina has played a much more difficult schedule than Old Dominion. The Pirates pulled their own major upset during their last home games, beating North Carolina, 41-19, two weeks ago. The Pirates then hung tough as a 20-point 'dog last week in losing 20-13 to South Florida on the road. The Pirates defense is much improved, ranking 48th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points. East Carolina ranks 51st in rushing offense. | |||||||
09-29-18 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State OVER 56 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show | |
South Alabama has one of the worst defenses in the nation surrendering 42 points and 498 yards per game. The Jaguars offense, though, is coming on averaging 38 points in their last two games versus Texas State and Memphis. Appalachian State is sure to take advantage of South Alabama's shortcomings. The Mountaineers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the country at 51.7 points a game. Mountaineers quarterback Zac Thomas has a mind-boggling 195.2 quarterback rating. I would not be surprisedi in the least if Appalachian State went Over this total by itself. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective. | |||||||
09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado UNDER 59 | Top | 16-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
To say that UCLA's offense has been a massive disappointment is still making an understatement. The Bruins rank 121st in the country in scoring at 17.3 points a game. They are 119th in yards at 319.7. Sure it was going to take a while for Chip Kelly to install his offense and get it going. But this is borderline ridiculous. There is a quarterback controversy, but neither Wilton Speight nor freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson have been very good for UCLA. Turnovers, bad play-calling and horrible offensive line play have all factored, too. Things don't figure to pick up for the Bruins in this tough road setting in high altitude. Colorado leads the Pac-12 in sacks and tackles for loss per game. Buffaloes linebacker Nate Landman is averaging more than 11 tackles per game and has two interceptions in three games. The Buffaloes are 3-0, but have played weak competition. I do believe Colorado quarterback Steven Montez is underrated, but his offensive line isn't that good and UCLA's defense will get turned around quicker than its offense. The Bruins are young, too, on defense, but have tremendous athletes and high level recruits manning the linebacker and secondary positions. | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs UNDER 55 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't suddenly become Joe Montana at 35. The career journeyman has put together two monster games and suddenly he's the best quarterback in the NFC. I'm not buying it. Fitzpatrick reverts back to who he really is and that's a turnover-prone backup quarterback who has played for seven teams. The Steelers' secondary is stronger with the return of cornerback Joe Haden from a hamstring injury. The Buccaneers entered this week ranked last in yards per rushing attempt. Their offense can not continue to put up big numbers without any type of ground attack. Look for the Steelers to keep their safeties back daring the Buccaneers to run. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been nearly as good on the road as at home. Le'Veon Bell remains out. So the Steelers' offense isn't as strong as perceived for this matchup especially with the Buccaneers upgrading their pass rush and having a healthy Gerald McCoy, a stud defensive tackle. McCoy has the most sacks of any tackle in the NFL during the past six seasons. Tampa Bay has a bottom-five place-kicker in Chandler Catanzaro, but one of the better punters, Bryan Anger. | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Even on the road, I'll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been playing well above his head. The Steelers are by far more experienced in marquee national televised games. They also are 9-1-1 in their last 11 regular season road games. The Buccaneers are beat-up in the secondary, vulnerable to Antonio Browns and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another plus for the Steelers is the expected return of cornerback Joe Hadon, who should limit DeSean Jackson's home-run ability. Pittsburgh also has a far more dependable place-kicker. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 51.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -106 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
It's no secret this figures to be a high-scoring game with Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford squaring off. The linesmaker accepts that by making this high of a total. But there are some less obvious reasons that show the total still is short and that more points will be scored than expected. This is the Patriots' first game this season inside a dome. That's a huge plus for the Over. New England opened its season going against two tough defenses, Houston and Jacksonville. The Lions' defense is a huge drop. This drop will be even bigger if the Lions are forced to play without their best pass rusher, Ezekiel Ansah, and best pass defender, cornerback Darius Slay. Both are questionable with injuries. The Lions' secondary is much worse minus Slay. Detroit doesn't have good cover linebackers and are facing the No. 1 tight end in football, Rob Gronkowski, and a pair of running backs, James White and Rex Burkhead, who are excellent pass catchers out of the backfield. The Patriots became a lot more athletic and fast on the outside after trading for Josh Gordon. New England also has key defensive injuries. Trey Flowers, perhaps the Patriots' most effective pass rusher, suffered a concussion last Sunday as did safety Patrick Chung. They are both questionable. Kenny Golladay has emerged as the Lions' second-best wide receiver. Stafford has three strong wide receiving targets now with Golden Tate, Golladay and Marvin Jones. Matt Patricia is off to a rocky start as the Lions' new head coach. He is the former defensive coordinator for the Patriots, though, so he should know well where to attack New England's defense. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +6 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bears are a team on the rise. Right now, though, they are a work-in-progress with a below average quarterback and caught in a bad situational spot. It only is Week 3. But the 0-2 Cardinals are in desperate straits under rookie head coach Steve Wilks. They must win this home game, or already they can forget about any playoff possibility. Chicago is traveling a long distance on a short week after beating Seattle at home this past Monday night. Chicago is 3-8 ATS following a victory. The Bears' defense is promising, but it is not at their best yet. That won't happen until Khalil Mack and rookie Roquan Smith become 100 percent comfortable in the system. The Cardinals have their own star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. It was Jones, not Mack, who led the NFL in sacks last season with 17. No other player had even 15 sacks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson gives Arizona the best defensive back on the field, too. Wilks, the former defensive coordinator for Carolina, should be able to devise a sound plan going against second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. The game has yet to slow down for Trubisky. He isn't any better than Sam Bradford. More mobile yes, but he lacks Bradford's veteran savvy and accuracy. Bradford will play better once the Cardinals figure out they need to get superstar running back David Johnson in space more. Wilks has had two games now to figure that out. Johnson has been under utilized. I see Johnson being the focal point of Arizona's offense and more dangerous than in the previous two games because the Cardinals will do more to get him on the outside, including putting him in the slot, or even flanking him wide. The Bears are going to take the Cardinals' best punch. I don't see them ready to cover more than a field goal on the road in a huge flat spot. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Chargers +7.5 v. Rams | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons. Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests. It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating. The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen. Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury. The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -5.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 7 m | Show | |
Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it. DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him. The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate. Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay. Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. | |||||||
09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Arizona State +18.5 v. Washington | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
It's strange but true. Arizona State has won 11 of the past 12 games in this series, including winning last year. The Sun Devils have covered in their last eight visits to Washington. The Huskies have the strongest defense in the Pac-12. Arizona State, though, is used to strong defenses having gone against Michigan State and San Diego in its past two games. The Sun Devils have an explosive passing attack spearheaded by senior Manny Wilkins, who has thrown for back-to-back 300 yard games. He has dangerous receiving weapons, including N'Keal Harry, who I regard as the best wide receiver in the Pac-12. Washington hasn't seen receivers this good all season. Washington has been just average on offense. I do like Myles Gaskin. However, the Huskies' offensive line isn't an elite unit and quarterback Jake Browning is overrated. He has four touchdown passes and four interceptions. I think there is very good value in taking a number I consider inflated. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 53 | 22-40 | Win | 100 | 43 h 10 m | Show | |
The last eight games in this series have gone Over. Look for that trend to continue. There were 77 points scored last season in Southern Mississippi's 43-34 road win. Kwadra Griggs is back from a two-game suspension giving Southern Mississippi a pair of quarterbacks to torment a bad Rice defense as he joins Jack Abraham, who has moved the ball well but been hurt by turnovers. The Golden Eagles are averaging 37.5 points per game. They have experienced depth at wide receiver and facing a Rice defense that is among the bottom-20 in yards allowed and points surrendered at 38.7 per game. Rice has yielded an average of 50.6 points in its last three games against Southern Mississippi. Southern Mississippi has strong defensive numbers. But that's going against Jackson State and Louisiana Monroe. Rice has skill position talent, including quarterback Shawn Stankavage and running back Emmanuel Esukpa, who has topped 100 yards rushing twice in three games this season while averaging 5.4 yards a carry. | |||||||
09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
Under Tony Sanchez, UNLV has received better coaching and recruiting. The Rebels have now reached borderline bowl status. They were right with USC on the road in their opener until the final couple of minutes and are off two confidence-building blowout victories. The Rebels have the quarterback and ground game to hang with Arkansas State on the road. The Red Wolves have a strong tradition and also are historically well-coached. But their defensive front is nothing great and UNLV can attack it with dual-threat quarterback Armani Rogers and Lexington Thomas, one of the best running backs in the country. Only two teams average more than the Rebels' 346.7 yards on the ground. Arkansas State ranks 96th in stopping the run. The weather forecast is in UNLV's favor, too. There is a chance of rain with wind in the 10-15 mph range. The Rebels are a running team while Arkansas State is the superior passing team. The Rebels used to be patsies on the road. Not anymore under Sanchez covering eight of their last nine away contests. The Red Wolves have failed to cover in their last four home games. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Pittsburgh -3 v. North Carolina | 35-38 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
This is turning into a lost season for North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost to California in their opener, were buried in Week 2 by East Carolina, 41-19, as 16 1/2-point road favorites and then didn't play last week against Central Florida because of Hurricane Florence. The aftermath of this hurricane as made it very difficult for North Carolina to focus and prepare for this matchup. That won't be the case with Pittsburgh. The Panthers are in huge revenge mode. Their 34-31 loss to the Tar Heels cost them a bowl berth last year. The Panthers have their confidence up after an impressive 24-19 home win against Georgia Tech last Saturday. Pitt has a good runner in Quadree Ollison and its quarterback, Kenny Pickett, played much better than he did earlier in the season. The Panthers shouldn't encounter problems going against a defense that yielded 510 yards of total offense to East Carolina. | |||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here. | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -157 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
The Browns should have beat the Steelers at home. The Browns should have beat the Saints on the road. Now the Browns drop way down in class hosting the Jets. New York has a rookie quarterback and is playing for the third time in 11 days while traveling on a short week after having hosted the Dolphins this past Sunday. Even Hue Jackson can't screw this one up for the Browns. Forget - if you can - the Browns being 1-35-1 in their last 37 games. Focus on just this particular matchup. The Browns have tremendous motivation hosting a rare nationally televised game. The spot couldn't be better for them drawing an inexperienced quarterback on short preparation time. Sam Darnold is precocious, but he's facing a decent - if not above average defense - in just his second NFL road start and is pitted against an aggressive, veteran defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams. This will be the toughest defense Darnold has seen in the NFL having played the Lions and Dolphins. Darnold operates behind a sub-par offensive line that figures to lose the battle of the trenches and he lacks dangerous skill position weapons. Tyrod Taylor is a veteran quarterback who knows how to win. The Browns have the best wideout, too, in Jarvis Landry. The combination of Taylor, a superior defense and a big home field advantage - made larger because of the short week - is enough for the Browns to get the victory. | |||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago. But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team. Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive. Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight. Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3. Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers. The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good. Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show | |
It's too bad for Odell Beckham Jr. that he has to play outdoors and with such a weak-armed quarterback as Eli Manning. Beckham is a great wideout, but he's limited by his quarterback. Manning is well past his prime. He struggles to throw downfield. So does Dak Prescott. Both quarterbacks are challenged with their vertical throws. They are more game managers than dangerous passers. Both teams have an excellent running back. So this matchup has all the makings of a conservative, low-scoring affair especially considering both team's defensive improvement. The Giants held Jacksonville's offense to 13 points last week. The Cowboys, with a healthy Sean Lee, have a top-10 defense with the potential to become elite. The Cowboys have two things going for them, an underrated defense and Ezekiel Elliott. What they don't have are dangerous receivers and a proven kicker after they cut Dan Bailey. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 151 h 59 m | Show |
The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet. The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -4.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 48 m | Show | |
The Falcons are on extra rest while Carolina is banged-up and making its lone road appearance for the first five weeks of the season. The Falcons' defense has greatly improved holding seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Panthers are severely banged-up in the offensive with both of their tackles out. Cam Newton still is experiencing accuracy problems and likely won't have his star tight end, Greg Olsen. The Falcons have defeated the Panthers the past three times hosting them. Their winning margin has been by 11.3 points. After facing a weak Dallas passing attack in Week 1, the Panthers will be challenged far more by Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. The Falcons are helped much more than the Panthers by playing on a fast track and not a grass field. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins OVER 45.5 | 21-9 | Loss | -130 | 95 h 14 m | Show | |
Washington's defense is improved, but it is far from top level. Andrew Luck showed me enough this past Sunday that I feel confident believing he can put up the required number of points to help this total go Over. The Colts should prove to be a strong Over team all season if Luck stays healthy with a porous defense and a passing offense reliant on Luck. The Colts are going to be passing a lot with Luck. Many of his throws are going to be short designed to move the chains because lack of a ground attack and a vulnerable offensive line that rates well below average. T.Y. Hilton is back to being a dominant force with Luck behind center and Ryan Grant is an underrated possession receiver. He fits in well with Luck as does tight end Jack Doyle. The Redskins are a far better offensive team with a healthy Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. Washington actually ranked No. 3 offensively last year until Thompson was lost for the season in Week 11. They plummented to 30th once he went down. Thompson provides a big-play dimension for Alex Smith, who is coming off his finest season. That was with the Chiefs, but Smith looks like a good fit with Washington. He should have no problems moving the ball at home against what could be the least talented secondary in the NFL, an inexperienced linebacking group and no feared pass rushers. The weather forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range and the chance of a drizzle. That shouldn't bother either offense, though, as both are predicated on short passing. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -116 | 124 h 55 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick had the game of his life in leading the Buccaneers to a stunning road victory against the Saints this past Sunday. Now the Bucs get to host the defending world champions. The spread is short because the Bucs are on a high, at home and the Eagles aren't likely to have Carson Wentz again. The Eagles are worth laying a small road price even with Nick Foles not looking like he did in the Super Bowl. That was a fluke performance. Foles is good enough, however, to help deliver a victory against this porous defense. Fitzpatrick is a career journeyman for many reasons, including his lack of consistency, his propensity for turnovers and not being talented enough to beat a strong defense such as the Eagles. The Eagles are on extra rest and preparation having played last Thursday. They are far better coached and their defense is upper tier while Tampa Bay's defense is bottom tier. The defending Super Bowl champions have the experience and savvy not to lose to this lowly foe. The Buccaneers lack a ground game to fall back on if Fitzpatrick struggles, which I anticipate here. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State UNDER 49.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 38 h 37 m | Show | |
Arizona State is giving up 10 points per game and just held Michigan State to 13 points at home. The Sun Devils rank No. 1 in run defense and catch a break in that San Diego State will be without senior starting quarterback, Christian Chapman. He holds the most wins in Aztecs' history. Chapman suffered a knee injury last week and won't play. ASU's defensive coordinator, Danny Gonzales, held that position last season for San Diego State. So he'll hold a lot of inside information about the Aztecs. San Diego State is strong defensively, too. This is no surprise since the Aztecs are coached by Rocky Long. San Diego State ranked 21st in scoring defense last year. The Aztecs have held their past three home opponents to an average of 15.6 points a game. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Aztecs' last 29 home games. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show | |
Those who doubted Herm Edwards in his return to coaching - and college at that - are quiet these days after the Sun Devils reached the top-25 for the first time in four years with a tremendous 16-13 home upset of Michigan State this past Saturday. The Sun Devils played their guts out coming from 10 points behind in the fourth quarter and were rewarded by beating the Spartans at the gun on a field goal. Up next for Arizona State following this game is a huge Pac-12 matchup against Washington. So this is just a terrible spot for the Sun Devils especially going on the road. San Diego State has no such look-ahead. The Aztecs host Eastern Michigan in a non-conference game next Saturday. Early money has come on Arizona State despite its situation because San Diego State won't have senior starting quarterback Christian Chapman. He's more game manager, though, as the Aztecs rely on running back Juwan Washington. He's the third-leading rusher in the nation with 314 yards in two games. This is Edwards' first road game with the Sun Devils. ASU is 6-13 ATS in its past 19 away contests. | |||||||
09-15-18 | UMass v. Florida International OVER 62 | 24-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Flordia International rolled past UMass, 63-45, in the final regular season game last year. Now the teams are back at it and there will be plenty of scoring again. Perhaps not 108 points like last year, but enough to go above this total. UMass is bombs away. FIU can't stop the pass. So the Minutemen will pile up points. They play up-tempo, which is a huge plus for the Over. But the Golden Panthers also easily will score because they will control the line of scrimmage and have the skill position talent to light up a weak UMass defense. | |||||||
09-15-18 | UTSA v. Kansas State UNDER 47 | 17-41 | Loss | -113 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
Through two games, Texas San Antonio statistically ranks as one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Roadrunners played Baylor and Arizona State. They are averaging 13.5 points and rank among the bottom three in total yards and rushing yards. The Under has cashed in seven of the Roadrunners' last nine games. Kansas State is a running team that plays at a very slow pace. The Wildcats are dropping way down in class going from Mississippi State to this opponent. Kansas State has a much bigger opponent, West Virginia, on deck. So the Wildcats are not going to show anything fancy. This will be a grind out, type of win perfect for an Under play. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh OVER 52 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
Look for offenses to rule this game. Pittsburgh is not going to be able to stop Georgia Tech's running attack. The Yellow Jackets have rushed for more than 400 yards in each of their two games, including piling up 602 total yards last week against South Florida in a 49-38 road loss. Georgia Tech quarterback TaQuon Marshall should be fine after missing some time in that game with a toe injury. Pittsburgh surrendered 44 points in the last 31 minutes of its last game, a 51-6 loss to Penn State. The Panthers' passing attack and quarterback Kenny Pickett should be much sharper this week. Their ground attack did go for 245 yards versus the Nittany Lions. Georgia Tech allowed South Florida quarterback Blake Barnett to account for 293 yards and four touchdowns. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 93 h 38 m | Show |
In time, the Bears defense is going to be good. But right now the Bears have a ways to go as Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith aren't likely to see extended game time against the Packers. Mack just was traded to the Bears and hasn't played since last season. The Bears won't risk an injury by playing him the whole game. I project Mack will spot play. Smith, the eighth player chosen in the 2018 draft, got off to a late start and then suffered a hamstring pull. So he's not likely to draw big minutes either. This sets up well for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has a number of fresh receiving faces and a monster red zone target in Jimmy Graham. The Bears offense and Mitchell Trubisky should be much better thanks to huge improvement at the receiver spots - both wide and at tight end - and far more innovative coaching with Matt Nagy replacing caveman John Fox. The Packers' secondary is extremely young with the exception of Tramon Williams. Green Bay still lacks a pass rush and its linebackers are far below average in coverage. Tarik Cohen was held under wraps in preseason. He could be a big factor in this matchup with his receiving skills out of the backfield. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 1300 h 2 m | Show | |
One thing to consider in Week 1 is scoring usually is down. That was the case last year as 10 of the 12 Sunday games went Under opening week. This matchup has the makings of being lower-scoring than the oddsmaker perceives. Jay Gruden is beginning his fifth season as Washington's head coach. The Redskins have averaged 12.2 points in their previous four opening week games under Gruden. Former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will be making his head coaching debut for Arizona. Wilks has been preparing for the Redskins the entire off-season. He wants to set a strong defensive tone. The Redskins averaged 21.4 points last season. They have less of a downfield passing threat now with Alex Smith at quarterback replacing Kirk Cousins. Smith is learning a new system, too. Arizona gave up an average of 20 points at home last season. The Redskins have good linebackers and a shutdown cornerback in Josh Norman. Their major defensive weakness is stopping the run. The Cardinals are going to be far more conservative under Wilks than they were when Bruce Arians was coach. So it's easy to project David Johnson to get a lot of carries. The Redskins know this, too. So they'll be stacking the line. Arizona has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Sam Bradford is like Alex Smith in that he's more game manager than gunslinger. So the Cardinals' attack is going to consist of a lot of running and short passes, both of which keep the clock moving. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -155 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 17 m | Show | |
There's nothing wrong with a highly talented Broncos defense that a decent quarterback can't cure. A seismic climate change from a combination of Brock Osweiler/Trevor Siemian to Case Keenum should prove a winning elixir especially in this spot for Denver. Given weapons and a dominant defense, Keenum led Minnesota to 13 wins in its last 15 games before a loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game. Denver has the pass rushers with Bradley Chubb joining Von Miller to make things rough on Russell Wilson, who may be without his top receiving weapon if Doug Baldwin isn't able to play because of a knee injury that kept him out of preseason. Wilson is a one-man band. Seattle has huge weaknesses in the offensive line, tight end and wide receiving depth. The Seahawks no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom defense to fall back on either due to defections and the retirement of safety Kam Chancellor. The Broncos have opened at home each of the last six years. Their record in these games is 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. Opponents aren't conditioned yet to play 60 minutes because of spot playing their starters during preseason. This situation is made worse for Denver's foes because of playing in high mountain altitude that increases their fatigue factor. Even under normal conditions and when their defense was much better, the Seahawks still encountered road problems early in the season going 0-6 SU and ATS the past four years in away games played during the first three weeks. | |||||||
09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -4.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 40 m | Show | |
Jimmy Garappolo sparked the 49ers to five straight victories to finish last season. But let's be clear here, Garappolo is not some elite quarterback and the 49ers are not a good team. That late season surge has made San Francisco an overrated commodity. Minnesota could have the best roster in the NFC. Certainly the Vikings have the top defense having allowed the fewest points and yards per game last year. The Vikings went 13-3 in 2017. That was having Dalvin Cook for just four games. Cook is back and Minnesota is upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. The 49ers have some serious defensive flaws. Signing cornerback Richard Sherman doesn't cover up all of their defensive backfield issues. MInnesota won seven of its eight regular season home games by more than a touchdown last season. That's not a surprise since the Vikings have had the best ATS home mark in the NFL since Mike Zimmer became their head coach in 2014. During Zimmer's four years, the Vikings have covered a staggering 67 percent of their regular season games. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts UNDER 47 | 34-23 | Loss | -121 | 1297 h 39 m | Show | |
Here is a little know fact. The Colts went Under the total during their final eight games last season. Of course, that was with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Andrew Luck is back now. Luck last threw a regular season pass in 2016. He's returning to an offense that averaged 4.6 yards per play, tied for last in the NFL. Luck is going to be extremely rusty. The youthful Colts aren't likely to put Luck at risk especially behind a leaky offensive line facing excellent pass rushers Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. So Indy's game plan figures to be highly conservative. The Bengals' offensive line also was terrible last season. It was a primary reason Cincinnati finished last in yards in 2017. The Bengals only had three games last season in which there were more than 46 points scored. Cincinnati failed to score more than 20 points in five of its last six road games. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals +3.5 v. Colts | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 641 h 26 m | Show | |
The Bengals are better than the Colts yet taking more than a field goal. What gives here besides Indy's home field? It's the Andrew Luck factor of course. Sure Luck is a huge upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. But Luck is going to be rusty having not played a down last season. Luck makes the Colts better, but not good enough to seriously contend in what shapes up to be a very good AFC South Division. The Colts have lost and failed to cover in seven of their last eight season-openers. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Cincinnati is an average-type team. They are better defensively than the Colts and have a strong wide receiver matchup edge with A.J. Green. Joe Mixon also gives Cincinnati the best running back. I'm not a huge fan of Marvin Lewis, but I prefer his stablility against the youthful Colts, who are breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Colts could have as many as nine new defensive starters. They are making the switch to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 and the early returns are not encouraging. Their defense looks like a bottom-four type unit. I like Cincinnati's pass rushers much better than the Colts. I'm also a fan of the Bengals' new defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin. He did a good job with the Lions. Lewis and Austin are respected defensive minds. Much this game is focused on Luck. But the Colts are inferior to the Bengals in the pits. Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offensive line as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL last season. The Colts aren't going to drastically change that just because they drafted a guard in the first round. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 220 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants' offense should be better this season with a re-tooled offensive line, a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Saquan Barkley. But it's never going to be high-scoring due to the advance age and limitations of Eli Manning. The Giants face a top-two quality Jacksonville defense that returns nearly all of its defensive starters. The Jaguars don't figure to break the scoreboard either with erratic Blake Bortles. They are a run-oriented team that is going to pound the ball and limit their chances in a road game they stand a very good chance of winning if they don't commit turnovers. Bortles lost his projected top wide receiver, Marquise Lee, in preseason. The Giants' defense fell apart last season. But two years ago it was very good. I see New York's defense playing much like it did in 2016. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 46 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 92 h 2 m | Show | |
A combination of factors put me on the Under. The weather forecast is for bad weather with high winds. Ben Roethilisberger has a history of playing much worse on the road and the Steelers now appear unlikely to have Le'Veon Bell. The Browns are running a conservative offense with Tyrod Taylor behind center. This is a division rivalry where defense should rule. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 54 m | Show |
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years. | |||||||
09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 54 m | Show | |
Intensity should be up for this in-state rivalry matchup. The Under has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. There were just 38 points scored last season when Cincinnati won, 21-17. Defense should carry the day again this time around. Miami has an inexperienced offensive line and a predictable offense. Cincinnati limited UCLA to 306 total yards in upsetting the Bruins, 26-17, last week. Cortez Broughton had 3 1/2 sacks for Cincinnati in that game. He and fellow defensive tackle Marquise Copeland should allow the Bearcats to control the line of scrimmage. UCLA had a number of players suspended in that game and doesn't have a strong defense. Yet the Bruins held Cincinnati to 285 yards. The Bearcats may be without their leading rusher from last season, Gerrid Doaks, for another week. He's dealing with a groin injury. The Bearcats still have an usettled quarterback situation. Weather is another factor on liking the Under. The forecast is for winds around 15 mph and a strong possibility of rain. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Ball State +34.5 v. Notre Dame | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Notre Dame easily could overlook Ball State having just won a huge marquee game against Michigan last week. Ball State finished last season with nine straight losses. The Cardinals are underrated, though. Ball State set a school record in piling up 652 yards in a 42-6 victory against Central Connecticut State last Thursday. The Cardinals got huge games from quarterback Riley Neal and running back James Gilbert, both of whom missed the last nine games with injuries last year. They make Ball State a better-than-perceived team. The Cardinals should be more excited about this matchup than Notre Dame. This is the first meeting between the two Indiana-based schools. Ball State also has covered nine of its last 11 games in September. | |||||||
09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU OVER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
This total has come down enough where I'm going to get involved strongly believing that there are going to be a lot of points scored here. There is around a 40 percent chance of rain, but very slight wind. I'll take that in order to get a total this low on this matchup. There were 92 points scored in last year's matchup won by TCU, 56-36. The Horned Frogs could put up 60 by themselves. SMU gave up 36 points through three quarters to North Texas in its opener, losing 46-23. TCU shouldn't have any problems against this defense with a balanced attack and quarterback Shawn Robinson looking good last week in a 55-7 opening win versus Southern. Robinson threw for three scores completing 17 of 24 passes and also ran for two more. SMU surrendered 444 passing yards to North Texas State. That doesn't bode well for the Mustangs. I'm not a fan of SMU coach Sonny Dykes. He is offensive-minded, though, and the Mustangs will be throwing a lot as they aren't going to be able to run the ball against TCU. SMU quarterback Ben Hicks can put up points with his passing. Hicks has thrown the most touchdowns in SMU history. He threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last season. SMU constantly is going to be attacking through the air, something I want an underdog to be doing when I'm going Over a total. I also like that the game is being played on a fast track at Gerald Ford Stadium, which uses FieldTurf. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Old Dominion v. Liberty OVER 58 | 10-52 | Win | 100 | 42 h 28 m | Show | |
I see both these teams scoring a lot of points based on their offensive strengths, which fit the opponent's defensive weakness. Old Dominion should pile up the rushing yards with Jeremy Cox running behind an experienced and talented offensive line. Liberty has an outstanding passing game led by quarterback Stephen Calvert. The Flames have nearly all of their top receivers back, too. Old Dominion has a vulnerable defensive backfield. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Texas State v. Rutgers -16.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Rutgers is going to relish a chance to bury an opponent and built up its confidence. The Scarlet Knights have had the defense. Now they have the makings of a decent offense to accomplish this against an overmatched opponent. Boston College transfer Jon Hilliman leads a good crop of Rutgers running backs that includes talented Raheem Blackshear and Jerome Washington is one of the better tight ends in the country. Freshman quarterback Art Sitowski was an "A" level recruit. How bad is Texas State? The Bobcats have won three games the past two years. Texas State didn't intercept a pass last season and only once in two seasons did its offense produce at least 14 points in non-conference FBS play. | |||||||
08-31-18 | Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 52.5 | 3-34 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 47 m | Show | |
Wisconsin should come close to covering this total by itself. The Badgers have maybe the top runner in the country, Jonathan Taylor, a decent quarterback in Alex Hornibrook and all five returning starters on their offensive line. Western Kentucky surrendered 30 or more points during each of its last six regular season games last year. The Badgers should have no problem wearing this defense down. The Hilltopppers are going with a more up-tempo offense with head coach Mike Sanford calling the plays. Sanford's strength is running an offense. Western Kentucky's ground attack should be much improved, too, with a deep set of runners and athletic fifth-year senior Drew Eckels at quarterback. | |||||||
08-30-18 | New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 46.5 | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 36 m | Show | |
New Mexico State could manage only 135 yards - 93 of which came during a final touchdown drive in garbage time - and seven points in losing 29-7 at home to Wyoming this past Saturday. Now the Aggies go on the road to face Minnesota, a Big Ten team that ranked 36th in scoring defense last year giving up 22.8 points per game. I don't see the Aggies having nearly enough time to straighten out their offensive line woes especially while going against a better defense. Minnesota, though, doesn't figure to put up many points either. The Gophers are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Zack Annexstad. So don't expect the Gophers to come out throwing. They have a solid running back in senior Rodney Smith. He should get lots of carries, which will eat clock. New Mexico State's defense was much improved last season under second-year defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. The Aggies should be able to hold their own against Minnesota's bland offense. Weather could play a factor, too. The forecast is for wind in the 10 mph range with a chance of thunderstorms. | |||||||
08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 58 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
Opening college football games, especially in this Week 0 before the first full week kicks off next weekend, can be tricky. This matchup, though, projects to be lower-scoring that the oddsmaker anticipates. Hawaii averaged just 17.6 points in its last five road games. The Under has cashed in its last six Mountain West Conference games. The Rainbow Warriors are going with a run-and-shoot type of offense featuring lots of quick-hitting short passes. This isn't the best offense to play an Under on. However, Hawaii has a lot of inexperience. The Warriors are going to go through growing pains with this offense. They aren't to be in sync this early in the season. Hawaii is breaking in a new quarterback after Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State. The Warriors also lost Dylan Collie to BYU. Collie led Hawaii in receiving last year. The Rainbow Warriors' attack may not have its full concentration either because of the damage Hurricane Lane is causing in Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors also have to deal with a four-hour time difference and higher elevation. Note, too, the game is being played on a grass field, which is slower than a turf field. Colorado State has good linebackers and its secondary has some key returners. Where the Rams took a massive hit was in their offense. Gone are three of their best players in school history - quarterback Nick Stevens, receiver Michael Gallup and running back Dalyn Dawkins. Colorado State lost four of its top five wide receivers and is breaking in three new offensive line starters. So I envision both offenses being off-kilter. If Colorado State were to grab a big lead, I could see the Rams calling off the dogs and playing very conservatively knowing they meet in-state rival Colorado on the road next Friday. | |||||||
02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -175 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -175 | 122 h 56 m | Show |
Call it fate, destiny or whatever you like, but Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren't losing to Nick Foles. I want the Patriots going for me here and the best way to do that is via the money line. There's actually value backing the Super Bowl favorite on the money line. Sports books get overwhelmed with money line wagers on the underdog so they lower the money line on the favorite. The Eagles are Super Bowl novices having last been in one in 2005. The Patriots are going for their third Super Bowl win in four years. The Eagles lack the dynamic offense to keep up with Brady with Carson Wentz out. It's not just Wentz. The Eagles are minus their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Jason Peters, and also are without Darren Sproles. He was their most dangerous outside threat and top return man. Brady gets all the attention, but New England's defense yielded the fewest points in the NFL from Week 5. Philadelphia's defense is good, but its not dominant. Brady not only has excellent wide receiving targets, but he'll also have Rob Gronkowski back and the best set of pass-catching running backs he's ever had with Dion Lewis, James White and Rex Burkhead. Who's more likely to throw a TD pass, Brady or Foles? Who's more likely to throw an interception, Brady or Foles? We know the answer to those questions. The Patriots have won 91 percent of their last 174 games when having a positive turnover ratio. Super Bowl Props (courtesy of the Westgate) Will there be overtime? I'd play No at minus 800. There has been one overtime in the 51-year history of the Super Bowl - and it happened last year. It's a lot of money to lay out for a small profit, but the odds are overwhelming that it will be a long time before another overtime happens in the Super Bowl. Nick Foles Over/Under 33 1/2 pass attempts: Under. The Eagles' game plan is to run the ball and take the pressure off Foles. They don't want him to play gunslinger. There's always the possibility that Foles, who is not mobile, could get injured, too. Jay Ajayi Over/Under 14 1/2 rushing attempts: Over. Ajayi is the Eagles' best running back. He's going to get fed the ball here. The Eagles want to run and play keep away from Brady. That means a lot of carries for Ajayi. Will Ajayi Score a Touchdown in the First Half: Yes at plus $3.75. Philadelphia scored 62 percent of its points in the first half during its past two games thanks to excellent play-calling and preparation by Doug Pederson. Ajayi is a good choice to get a touchdown if the Eagles do score in the first half. Over/Under 4 1/2 total solo/assisted tackles by Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks: Over. The Eagles don't blitz their linebackers very often. Kendricks is an outstanding athlete who not only is good against the run, but also versus the pass. The Patriots throw a lot to their running backs, who will be covered by linebackers. Over/Under 2 on Patriots sacks: Over. Foles isn't mobile. He's also a veteran who isn't going to do something crazy when pressured. He'll take a sack if he has to. If the Eagles are playing from behind - which I anticipate - than the Patriots' sack chances increase even more. | |||||||
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -103 | 100 h 4 m | Show |
Three big reasons why I like the Patriots: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and New England's defense. The first two reasons are obvious. The combination of home-field and Brady versus Blake Bortles are worthy of the point spread right there. Jacksonville's defense was outstanding during much of the regular season. But Brady is at his finest against the type of zone cover style the Jaguars use. The Jaguars' defense also has been wearing down after carrying their offense for so many games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 32 points during its last four road games. It's the Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest points since Week 5. By far, the Patriots have the more playoff experience, big-game experience and discipline. All of that is going to matter here. The Patriots can win by talent, or by scheme and coaching. The Jaguars can't outscheme the Patriots. Brady has a balanced attack. He'll be able to slice up the Jaguars' defense with quick slants and utilizing versatile Dion Lewis. The Patriots also are expected to get back wide receiver Chris Hogan and running back James White, one of the best pass-catching runners out of the backfield in the NFL. Hogan is a big upgrade on Phillip Dorsett and gives Brady another strong receiving target to go with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola. The Jaguars' offense looked great against the Steelers last week. But Jacksonville has yet to achieve trusted consistency on offense relying heavily on rookie Leonard Fournette. Before putting up 45 points on the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had scored only 10 points during each of their last two games. The Patriots aren't going to let Fournette beat them. I don't see Bortles, one of the most inaccurate throwers in the league, and his inexperienced wide receiving corps keeping up with Brady. | |||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -3.5 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 155 h 49 m | Show |
The oddsmaker isn't giving the Vikings enough credit here. Minnesota's home field advantage is worth the spread alone - and the Vikings are much superior to the Saints. Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Vikings are 7-1 at home, including defeating the Saints, 29-19, opening week. New Orleans has lost and failed to cover in its past three road games. The Saints are 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 2-6 ATS during their past eight games. Drew Brees is the best quarterback on the field. But he doesn't have the receiving talent he's had in past years and is going against the best defense in football. The Vikings have no weaknesses especially on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up the fewest yards per game and fewest points per game at 15.8. Minnesota also ranked No. 2 in run defense and pass defense. Case Keenum is having a magical and career season. He's mobile and can rely on two solid running backs plus good receivers headed by Adam Thielen, who had the fifth most receiving yards in the league. Stefon Diggs is highly effective when healthy, which he is, and Kyle Rudolph is one of the best red zone tight ends. Both Diggs and Rudolph scored eight touchdowns this season. Another plus for Minnesota's offense is rookie center Pat Elfein is back practicing after being out and is likely to play. He's had an outstanding season. The Saints defense is improved, but is back to being shaky due to multiple injuries and fatigue. The Saints peaked during the middle part of the season in October and November. They've only played really well once in their last seven games. They lost to the Buccaneers in Week 17 surrendering 445 yards. The Saints defense has been on the field for 152 plays during the last two weeks, a massive amount, while the Vikings enjoyed a well-earned bye this past week. The combination of being down four defensive starters from the start of season and a heavy fatigue factor is going to leave the Saints defense highly vulnerable, while the Saints offense isn't going to be able to generate enough points to stay with Minnesota being on the road and operating against the premier defense in football. | |||||||
01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7.5 | 45-42 | Loss | -100 | 149 h 52 m | Show | |
I could write this analysis in two words: Blake Bortles. He's not beating the Steelers on the road. No matter how good Jacksonville's defense is, the Jaguars can't beat an elite foe on the road with Bortles behind center. He's too turnover-prone and inaccurate. The Steelers' run defense has taken a hit with Ryan Shazier out, but they will load the box just like the Bills did in holding the Jaguars to 10 points at home this past Sunday. Leonard Fournette isn't nearly as healthy and fresh as he was when the Jaguars stunned the Steelers at Heinz Field in Week 5. Bortles didn't play well in that game either. It was the Jaguars' defense that came up with five interceptions that set up that victory. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history at home and in cold weather. Jacksonville hasn't played a cold weather game all season. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20s with a chance of snow. Antonio Brown should return for the Steelers. Even if he doesn't, Roethlisberger has a balanced attack. The Jaguars defense has to play things straight knowing Le'Veon Bell can beat them on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield while Roethlisberger has downfield targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant. It's just an added plus if Brown is in the lineup, too. | |||||||
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show | |
The marketplace has been active early in driving this total down. I agree with the move. The linesmaker opened this game way too high. The Falcons are perceived as a big offensive team. That was true last season. Not this season. Atlanta's defense is improved, but its offense regressed considerably minus guru offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Atlanta scored 27 fewer touchdowns and gained 816 fewer yards than last season. It's why the Falcons have gone Under during their past six games. If you factor in games the Falcons played against playoff teams this season, you'll see an 8-0 mark to the Under with the highest scoring game being 40 points. The Falcons also haven't faced a defense this good since Week 13 when they were held to nine points at home by the Vikings. Philadelphia is home and its defense is rested following a bye. The Eagles ranked No. 1 in run defense and were in the top-five in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring defense and total yards. The last three road teams combined to average only 6.3 points against the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles will be conservative on offense not wanting to trust, or open things up, with erratic backup quarterback Nick Foles. That means a heavy dose of power inside running with Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement. The Eagles lost their main outside threat and top returner, Darren Sproles, earlier in the season. The temperature should be another plus for the under with the forecast calling for temperatures in the 30s with wind around 13 mph. | |||||||
01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show | |
Too much respect is being given to the Falcons here and not enough to the Eagles. The oddsmaker has overadjusted to Nick Foles being the Eagles quarterback. The Eagles are home, by far the more rested team, have the superior defense and an edge in special teams. The Eagles will win this game with defense and a strong ground game. The Falcons have the more name players on offense, but Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman all had down seasons especially compared to last season. Ryan has not thrown more than one touchdown pass during his last seven games. Jones scored just three touchdowns this season. Freeman rushed for 214 fewer yards than last season and accounted for eight touchdowns after scoring 13 touchdowns last season. Philadelphia was unbeaten at home this season until deciding to rest many of its starters in Week 17 during a loss to Dallas. The Eagles hold a strong homefield edge made moreso by cold weather, which the Falcons have yet to encounter this season. There's also a fatigue factor to consider. While many of the main Eagles have been off for nearly three weeks, the Falcons are playing in their third road game in four weeks. The Falcons have had to play either an above .500 team, or division rival, during each of the last 10 weeks. That's not only a physical drain, but a mental one, too. | |||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama -4 v. Georgia | 26-23 | Loss | -108 | 132 h 57 m | Show | |
I want Alabama going for me here. The Tide beat Clemson in impressive style while Georgia had to launch a monster comeback to defeat Oklahoma in double overtime. The Tide had the less taxing bowl playoff game and a shorter distance to travel back home from New Orleans. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, are coming off a very dificult game in which they came back from a 31-17 halftime deficit and had to return all the way back from the West Coast having defeated the Sooners in southern California. Alabama and Georgia shared common opponents Auburn, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Combining those games, the Tide came out with a plus 279 yardage mark against those four common foes to Georgia's plus 115. The Tide also recorded the better offensive and defensive yards per play statistics. Note, too, that Georgia coach Kirby Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator before becoming the Bulldogs' head coach last season. Former Saban assistant coaches have squared off against their mentor 11 times - and are 0-11. Each of Alabama's victories against these coaches was by 14 or more points. | |||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 45.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 56 m | Show | |
Alabama is the best defensive team in the country. The Crimson Tide went into their playoff bowl game against Clemson ranked No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense and run defense. They then proceeded to hold the Tigers to six points. Clemson entered that game averaging 33.3 points a game. Alabama has held nine of its 13 opponents to 10 or fewer points. Georgia finished the regular season ranked fifth in scoring defense and sixth in total yards. The Bulldogs gave up 14 points or fewer to 10 of their 13 regular season opponents. But a wild 54-48 double overtime game against Oklahoma last week may have influenced the oddsmaker to open this total too high. The Bulldogs are stepping way up in defensive class taking on Alabama instead of Oklahoma. Georgia coach Kirby Smart was Nick Saban's defensive coordinator before taking over as the Bulldogs coach. He knows the Tide and should have a solid defensive game plan in place. | |||||||
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars UNDER 40 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 126 h 28 m | Show | |
First off, I don't see the Bills scoring many points here - if any. The Bills rank 31st in passing. Their best skill position player is LeSean McCoy and he will be severly hampered by an ankle injury if he even plays. Tyrod Taylor can't attack downfield. He doesn't have the necessary talent to do that, nor does he have the wide receiving weapons. Buffalo has the worst wide receivers in the AFC. If McCoy is ruled out, Taylor's running backs will be overweight, over-the-hill third-stringer Mike Tolbert and practice squad player Marcus Murphy. Making this far worse for the Bills is they are on the road against maybe the premier defense in football. The Jaguars rank No. 2 in fewest yards per game and scoring defense giving up of 16.8 points per game. They led the NFL with 55 sacks and set a franchise-record with 21 interceptions in leading the NFL in pass defense. Defensive lineman Calais Campbell, linebacker Telvin Smith and cornerback Jalen Ramsey rank among the best at their respective positions. Buffalo's strength is a bend-but-don't-break defense. If you discount their games against the powerful Patriots, the Bills held their last four opponents to 12.2 points a game. The Jaguars aren't going to do anything that would jeopardize winning this game such as attacking downfield with erratic Blake Bortles. They are going to play a conservative, field-position game with lots of running plays. The Jaguars have three good running backs. Bortles can be turnover prone and he has inexperienced receivers. Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is not a moron. He won't take chances attacking downfield. The Jaguars' offensive line isn't outstanding at run blocking. The Jaguars averaged fewer than four yards a carry in five of their last seven games. But the Bills ranked 29th in run defense. So that's where the Jaguars will attack while not risking any Bortles' interceptions. Lots of running eats up lots of clock. | |||||||
01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -103 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
It's a nice story that the Bills finally made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But, truth be told, the Bills have no business in the postseason. Buffalo was minus 57 in point differential. The Chargers, by contrast, were plus 83 in scoring differential but failed to make the playoffs. If LeSean McCoy doesn't play, the Bills will have the worst set of skill position players I've ever seen for a playoff team. Even if McCoy plays, he will be extremely limited by an ankle injury. It's not a surprise Buffalo ranked 31st in passing. Tyrod Taylor is more runner than thrower. The Bills thought so little of Taylor they benched him for Nathan Peterman in Week 11. Taylor has no decent wide receiving options. If McCoy is a no-go, the Bills' running backs will be plodding third-stringer Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy, who was just called up from the practice squad when second-string running back Travaris Cadet was lost for the season with a broken ankle in Week 16. The Jaguars give up the second-fewest points and yards per game in the league. They rank No. 1 in pass defense. I can't see the Bills putting up many points - if any - against the home Jaguars. Blake Bortles had a strong December with the exception of his last game. If you discount that performance on the road against the Titans in Week 17, Bortles had thrown nine touchdowns in his past four games. He has 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to do the heavy lifting. There's also the Doug Marrone factor. He coached the Bills from 2013-14 and so is extra familiar with Buffalo. Marrone's stay in Buffalo didn't end well so he won't be reluctant to run up a score. | |||||||
01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 28 m | Show |
The Titans were good at two things this season - winning at home and beating foes from their weak AFC South Division. What the Titans aren't good at is winning on the road and defeating strong opponents. Tennessee has lost and failed to cover five of its last seven away matchups. The Titans' only victories during this span were against the winless Browns in overtime and beating the four-win Colts by four points. Except for the Jaguars, the Titans didn't beat a playoff team. The Titans have just two victories since Dec. 3. They lack playoff experience, too, having last made the postseason back in 2008. Kansas City is playoff-tested having made the postseason three of the past four seasons, including the last two. Andy Reid is a much better coach than Mike Mularkey and the Chiefs were able to rest a number of their key starters this past Sunday. The Chiefs play excellent defense at Arrowhead Stadium - holding foes to fewer than 17 points per game on the season - and their offense is back in gear. The Chiefs finished the regular season winning and covering their last four games while averaging 28 points. The Titans surrendered 27 touchdown passes. Their defense is far less effective on the road. Alex Smith had a career season leading the NFL in passer rating and shedding his image of being a mere game-manager. Smith's greatest strength is not turning the ball over. He has weapons with rookie Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill both establishing themselves as big-play threats. Hunt led the NFL in rushing. Travis Kelce is a top-three tight end. The Chiefs' braintrust of Reid and sharp offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is far superior to Mularkey, whose conservative strategies caused promising third-year quarterback Marcus Mariota to regress. Mariota was picked off a career-high 15 times. The Titans probably aren't going to have DeMarco Murray. So the Titans are left to counter the Chiefs' high-powered, balanced attack with Mariota, who has played much worse on the road, and Derrick Henry. The Chiefs are likely to load the box since the Titans have failed to establish a downfield passing game, another weakness of Mularkey. Tennessee averaged 15 points in losing its last two road games, falling to the Cardinals and 49ers. Neither of those teams made the playoffs. | |||||||
01-01-18 | LSU v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
I see these teams as near even with Notre Dame slightly better. So I'll gladly accept points here. I like Notre Dame's running back depth better and offensive line where they have two projected first-round draft picks. Guard Quenton Nelson is expected to be the first offensive linemen selected in the draft. I also prefer Brandon Wimbush to Danny Etling at quarterback. The statistics of these two teams are very close. Notre Dame, though, has a clear edge in averaging 6.4 yards per run while allowing 4.0 yards compared to LSU averaging 4.9 and 3.9 defensively. The key is who runs the ball better and that's another checkmark for Notre Dame, which rates seventh-best in the nation. Strength of schedule also favors the Irish. This was not a great year in the SEC. LSU had its worst losses against Mississippi State and Alabama. The Tigers also were shocked by Troy. The Irish are the healthier team, too, especially at linebacker. The line is shaded towards LSU because Notre Dame lost late games against Stanford and Miami both on the road. The Irish are refreshed and have regrouped now. They are the team worth backing. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
I don't see the Buccaneers being able to stop the Saints' balanced attack. The Bucs' defense is battered and worn down. The Saints have arguably the top running back tandem with Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. Drew Brees remains as sharp as ever on pace to set the NFL record for highest completion rate in a season at 71.9. Tampa Bay has lost five in a row. The Buccaneers have managed to hang in during this losing streak but they've been terrible through the years as a home 'dog and I just don't see a strong effort from them. Jameis Winston has had a poor year and is down several key receiver targets. Winston still isn't 100 percent due to a shoulder injury. I'm not impressed with any of Tampa Bay's running backs. The Saints' defense is much improved. New Orleans has covered 13 of its last 17 road contests. The spread is fair considering the Saints are not only the superior team, but the more motivated looking to win a division title. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chargers | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
The Raiders have a strong recent history of playing the Chargers tough. Oakland has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams. The Chargers' lone victory during this span came this season, 17-16, on Oct. 15. The line is inflated due to the Chargers needing to win to keep alive their playoff hopes. LA, though, really has no home field advantage. There could be as many Raiders fans in attendance. The Raiders aren't going to lie down here against this division foe. Jack Del Rio's coaching future could be on the line and the Raiders have several below-the-radar factors going their way here. One of these factors is an edge in special teams for Oakland. The Raiders have a dangerous returner in Cordarrelle Patterson and a good punter in Marquette King, who has the Raiders ranked third in net punting yards. The Chargers are below average on special teams with their inconsistent kicking game and they won't have perhaps their best special teams player in Adrian Phillips. He's out with an ankle injury. The Raiders' defense has improved since John Pagano replaced Ken North Jr. as the defensive coordinator. The Chargers have key skill position players banged-up. Tight end Hunter Henry is out with a kidney injury and Melvin Gordon may not play because of an ankle injury, which would leave third-stringer Braden Oliver as the main ball-carrier. Even if Gordon plays he'll be limited in his cutting. Gordon had 150 yards from scrimmage in the Chargers' one-point victory against the Raiders. The Chargers have a strong secondary and good pass rush. Their weakness is run defense, where they rank last in the NFL. Bilal Powell rushed for 145 yards on 19 carries against LA last Sunday and Kareem Hunt ran for 155 yards on 24 carries two weeks ago against the Chargers in helping Kansas City win, 30-13. The Raiders are going to pound away at the Chargers with Marshawn Lynch. This will make things easier for Derek Carr , who had just returned from a back injury when the team's met the first time. Mobile quarterbacks such as Carr have given the Chargers problems. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $759 |
Joey Tron | $580 |
William Burns | $483 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Tom Macrina | $468 |
Jesse Schule | $466 |
Matt Fargo | $398 |
Big Al McMordie | $324 |
Ricky Tran | $258 |
AAA Sports | $229 |