Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-20-11 | Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams -3 | 24-7 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
Seattle is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 road games. So we know the Seahawks are a very bad road team. They have lost eight of their past nine away contests. The spread is low enough where you basically just need the Rams to win. I see the Rams' offense picking up with Sam Bradford finally shaking a lingering ankle sprain. He's getting a tremendous season from Steven Jackson and finally has a top-notch wide receiver in Brandon Lloyd. The Seahawks are missing their two best cornerbacks. Seattle's defensive strength has been its run defense. But in the last two weeks, Baltimore and Dallas combined to average 5.8 yards per run on the Seahawks gaining 238 yards on 41 carries. Jackson returned to the lineup back on Oct. 16 after being out. Since then, he's the league's second-leading rusher with 583 yards in five games. He's put together three straight 100-yard rushing games. The Rams have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. But the Seahawks rank 29th in total offense. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is limited by a pectoral injury and just this past week Seattle lost its right side of its offensive line with John Moffitt and James Carpenter out for the year with knee injuries. They will be replaced by Paul McQuistan and Breno Giacomini, which is a severe downgrade. | |||||||
11-20-11 | Oakland Raiders v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 45.5 | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 46 h 40 m | Show | |
Minnesota's strength is running the ball with Adrian Peterson. Oakland can pass the ball against Minnesota's beat-up secondary. Put these two teams on a fast indoor track and it spells over the total. The Vikings have gone over nine of the past 13 times when playing on carpet. Peterson is averaging 5.2 yards per rush at home this season with seven touchdowns and a 134-yard average per game. The Raiders are once again weak on run defense yielding 5.1 yards per carry. Peterson should have plenty in the tank after carrying just 14 times this past Monday in a blowout loss to the Packers. Only four teams are giving up more points per game than the Raiders. Oakland has surrendered an average of 27.6 points in its last three games facing San Diego, Kansas City and Denver. The Vikings' offense is better than the Chiefs and Broncos. The Vikings, though, are extremely weak in the secondary with several key defensive backs out, including their best cornerback, Antoine Winfield. The Vikings rank 30th in pass defense. The Raiders have upgraded their quarterback position from Jason Campbell to Carson Palmer and can take advantage. Yes, Jared Allen has been a pass rushing terror with 13 1/2 sacks, but the Raiders are second in the league in fewest sacks allowing just 11. Allen will go against left tackle Jared Veldheer, who has improved tremendously from his rookie season giving up only two sacks this season. | |||||||
11-20-11 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
It doesn't appear as if A.J. Green is going to be able to play this week after suffering a knee injury in last week's Bengals' loss to the Steelers. That means the Bengals are going to be not only missing a key offensive player, but also a key defensive player with cornerback Leon Hall out for the year after tearing his left Achilles tendon versus Pittsburgh. These two injuries are huge for an overachieving Bengals team that doesn't have an overabundance of talent. Green is Andy Dalton's top receiver and first-look. Green has hauled in six of Dalton's 14 touchdown throws. Baltimore ranks in the top six in the key defensive statistical categories, including No. 3 in total defense and fewest points allowed at 16.9 per game. The Ravens have given up the fewest touchdowns through the air. It's going to be very difficult for the run-oriented, conservative Bengals to muster many big-plays against such a strong defense being on the road and likely without Green. The Ravens are in a foul mood after being upset at Seattle. The Ravens have played terrible on the road. Two of their road defeats occurred after beating the Steelers the previous week. They will be highly motivated for this matchup. The key is how many points the Ravens can muster against a good Bengals defense? Hall's injury really hurts the Bengals because now they don't have the cornerback depth to play nearly as much man-to-man coverage. Hall easily was Cincinnati's top cover corner. Joe Flacco has a history of playing much better at home. He's also better taking what defenses give him in zone coverage rather than attacking vertically. The Ravens also realize that Ray Rice has to be a bigger part of the offense again. Good things usually happen for the Ravens when they feature Rice, which will be the case here. Rice has averaged 4.5 yards per carry during his past four games against the Bengals and an average of 118 yards from scrimmage. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |