Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-22-24 | Hawks v. Kings -8 | 107-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS. | |||||||
01-22-24 | Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage. | |||||||
01-21-24 | Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | 110-134 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers. | |||||||
01-20-24 | Cavs -135 v. Hawks | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared. | |||||||
01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game. The Hawks have held their last two opponents, the Magic to 104 points, and Spurs to 99 points. Atlanta, though, is averaging only 105.5 points in its last four games. | |||||||
01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 223 | 124-109 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. | |||||||
01-17-24 | Heat v. Raptors +1.5 | 97-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors. | |||||||
01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 228.5 | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The focus will be on superstars Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. But I am thinking defense here in this high-profile matchup between the defending champion Nuggets and 76ers, who are anxious to make a statement with a win. | |||||||
01-15-24 | Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 248.5 | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
Indiana has gone Under the total in its last three games. The Pacers haven't had emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton during those three games. So it's not a coincidence those games have all gone Under. I find it directly related. Haliburton suffered a groin injury four games ago. Haliburton, who leads the NBA in assists and also is the Pacers' leading scorer, isn't expected back until later this month. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are fully healthy. The Mavericks are not. Luka Doncic is out with an ankle injury. Dante Exum, the Mavericks' fifth-leading scorer, is out, too. Rotation player Dereck Lively II is questionable. | |||||||
01-12-24 | Magic v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an in-state rivalry matchup between two top 10 defenses. Both teams have multiple injuries to key players, too. The Heat aren't likely to have Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin are questionable. Orlando will be minus Franz Wagner, its second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, and also could be without Wendell Carter Jr., Joe Ingles and Gary Harris. Miami is going to be stressing defense after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot 59.3 percent from the floor in a 128-120 loss to the Thunder two days ago. The Heat defeated the Magic, 115-106, at Orlando in their first meeting this season. The Heat were hot in that game shooting 48 percent from the floor and sinking 15 of 29 3-point shots for 52 percent. I highly doubt the Heat will be that hot again. | |||||||
01-11-24 | Blazers +13.5 v. Thunder | Top | 77-139 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on. | |||||||
01-11-24 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | 102-135 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Only once all season have the Celtics been an underdog. But there are good reasons why Boston is getting so many points in this matchup. | |||||||
01-09-24 | Raptors v. Lakers -5 | Top | 131-132 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
Next to winning the NBA in-season tournament, the Lakers won perhaps their most important game of the season this past Sunday edging the Clippers, 106-103. The Clippers had won five in a row entering that matchup while the Lakers had dropped four straight. The Lakers were 3-10 since capturing the in-season tournament before defeating the Clippers. There was growing friction inside the Lakers between some players and coach Darvin Ham. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis had huge performances and D'Angelo Russell returned after missing three games because of a bruised tailbone to lead the Lakers past the Clippers and take the focus off Ham. I don't see the Lakers just giving back that game by losing at home to the Raptors here. Toronto is a bit fat and happy following a 133-118 road win against the Warriors this past Sunday. That gave the Raptors a 2-1 record on their current six-game road trip. This marks the Raptors' fourth road game in seven days and seventh overall game in 12 days. The Raptors haven't been playing good defense, surrendering an average of 122.3 points a game during their past six games. | |||||||
01-06-24 | Knicks v. Wizards +9 | 121-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Knicks are 3-0 since acquiring three players from the Raptors, including OG Anunoby. They are off their most lopsided win of the season, a 128-92 rout of the 76ers last night. | |||||||
01-05-24 | Wolves -3.5 v. Rockets | Top | 122-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are off consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pelicans at home. They have not lost three in a row all season. | |||||||
01-04-24 | Bucks v. Spurs UNDER 250 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
The Bucks and Pacers just scored a combined 272 points in Indiana's, 142-130, Wednesday home victory. | |||||||
01-03-24 | Pistons +9 v. Jazz | Top | 148-154 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Utah is fat and happy after getting satisfying revenge on Dallas this past Monday. The Jazz whipped the Mavericks, 127-90, after having lost to the Mavericks by 50 points in their previous matchup on Dec. 6. The Pistons have their own short revenge here. The Jazz defeated the Pistons, 119-111, as 2 1/2-point road favorites on Dec. 21. Since then the Pistons halted an NBA record-tying 28-game losing streak by edging the Raptors. Following that victory, the Pistons had their own letdown losing to the Rockets, 136-113, on the road two days ago. The Pistons should be ready again now. Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks shouldn't lack motivation having formerly played for the Jazz. This is just the second time since Dec. 2 that Utah is favored. It's also the most points Utah is laying all season. | |||||||
01-02-24 | Hornets +16 v. Kings | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
This is the biggest margin the Kings have been favored all season. It's justified considering the opponent is Charlotte. But the spot isn't good for the Kings. So I'll accept this many points with the Hornets. | |||||||
01-01-24 | Cavs +2.5 v. Raptors | 121-124 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Wrong favorite here. The 18-14 Cavaliers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and in much better form than the 12-20 Raptors. | |||||||
12-30-23 | Knicks v. Pacers -3.5 | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
It's obvious the Knicks are missing underrated defensive center Mitchell Robinson. New York has surrendered an average of 124.5 points in its last four games. Now the Knicks have to face the Pacers on the road. Indiana leads the NBA in scoring at 126.1 points. | |||||||
12-29-23 | Raptors +8 v. Celtics | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Well the Celtics didn't lose to the Pistons last night. But they sure got a scare trailing by 21 points. Boston won, but the game went into overtime and the Celtics had to dig deep and exert tremendous effort. | |||||||
12-28-23 | Pistons +17 v. Celtics | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
I understand the Pistons are all-time bad with 27 straight losses. But they are in a great situational spot and the point spread is through the roof. The Celtics concluded a four-game West Coast trip that began nine days ago and finished on Christmas day with a highly-satisfying national TV win against the Lakers, Boston's third consecutive victory. The Celtics returned home two days ago to celebrate the holidays. They are fat and happy. Now they have to get reinvigorated to play the worst team in the league while also knowing they host the Raptors on Friday. That's a more challenging game. So I'm not expecting anywhere near an "A" game from the Celtics, who could be using their bench players more than usual in this matchup. The Pistons have been semi-competitive in their last four games playing the Nets twice, Jazz and Hawks. Their average margin of defeat in these games is 7.7 points. | |||||||
12-26-23 | Magic -7.5 v. Wizards | 127-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Orlando is much improved. Washington remains a bottom-feeder. The Magic are 2-0 vs Washington this season with an average victory margin of 12 points. Both games were in Orlando. But this isn't a good home spot for the Wizards. | |||||||
12-25-23 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 113-119 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
The big news here is Joel Embiid is out with a sprained ankle. Embiid is a strong rebounder and rim protector, but his absence is going to be felt more on Philadelphia's offense. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35 points a game. He also averages six assists. | |||||||
12-23-23 | Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 244.5 | 130-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
There are a number of odd circumstances that work against this total going Over. | |||||||
12-22-23 | Hawks v. Heat -118 | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
OK, no Jimmy Butler for the Heat. I'll accept that in order to get the Heat at a near pick price against the Hawks. | |||||||
12-20-23 | Lakers v. Bulls +4.5 | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Chicago is one of the hottest point spread teams covering eight of its last nine games. The Bulls have been achieving this going against strong competition, too. They've played the 76ers, Heat twice, Nuggets and Bucks during their last five games. | |||||||
12-20-23 | Hawks v. Rockets -3 | Top | 134-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
Look for the Rockets to take care of business at home against the Hawks. Houston is 2-10 on the road, but has won 11 in a row at home. | |||||||
12-18-23 | Nets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The Nets are a team I like to get behind. This is a spot to back them. Only the 76ers have a better point spread record than Brooklyn. The Nets are 17-7-1 (71 percent) ATS. | |||||||
12-17-23 | Rockets v. Bucks UNDER 230.5 | 119-128 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
The Bucks have scored 146 and 140 points, respectively, in their last two games. Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the league. | |||||||
12-15-23 | Pistons +16 v. 76ers | 92-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Can the Pistons avoid setting a team record for most consecutive losses in a season by upsetting the 76ers on the road tonight? Probably not. But Detroit can stay within this large point spread given the circumstances. | |||||||
12-14-23 | Wolves +2 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Mavericks for nipping the Lakers, 127-125, at home on Tuesday. That was Dallas' fourth consecutive victory. But before getting on the Mavericks' bandwagon take a look at who their other three victories came against during this win streak - Utah, Portland and Memphis. Those three teams are a combined 20-49. Minnesota is tied with Boston for the best record in the NBA at 17-5. The Timberwolves just had their six-game win streak snapped by the Pelicans, 121-107, at New Orleans three days ago. The Timberwolves are the better team and I want them off a loss with extra preparation time. It's a bonus if the Timberwolves get back Anthony Edwards, who is questionable with a hip pointer. Minnesota does have back Jaden McDaniels, an underrated rotation player. The Mavericks remain without Kyrie Irving. | |||||||
12-13-23 | Nets v. Suns -125 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
I hold tremendous respect for the Nets. They have the best point spread record in the NBA at 16-5-1. So I don't like to fade them. But it's not asking too much of the Suns to simply win this game even if Kevin Durant isn't ready to play after missing the last two games because of an ankle sprain. That's why I have them on the money line instead of laying a short number. | |||||||
12-13-23 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -5.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Since losing and failing to cover in their first three games, the Rockets have gone 14-2-1 (88 percent) ATS. Yet the marketplace still hasn't fully comprehended how improved the Rockets are defensively. | |||||||
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 258.5 | 126-140 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Behold this game has reached the highest total of the season. It's justified because these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA. | |||||||
12-12-23 | Cavs +11 v. Celtics | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Here is another example of Boston being overpriced. The Cavaliers are being disrespected because they lost to the Magic last night. No shame in that. Orlando is greatly improved. The Cavaliers happen to be 6-1 following a loss. | |||||||
12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 233 | 125-127 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
The Mavericks won't have Kyrie Irving and will want to slow pace having played last night. Dallas could be minus Tim Hardaway, too. He missed the Grizzlies' game due to back spasms. The Lakers are in a letdown spot after winning the NBA's in-season tournament. | |||||||
12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The Mavericks beat the Lakers, 104-101, in Los Angeles on Nov. 22. The circumstances are ripe for the Mavericks to do it again. This is the Lakers' first game since capturing the NBA's first in-season tournament. They accomplished that by defeating the Pacers this past Saturday night in Las Vegas. The Lakers haven't done nearly as well in non-tournament games and this is a letdown spot for them. LA is 5-7 in non-tournament games. Dallas won and covered its third straight game beating the Grizzlies, 120-113, on the road last night. The Mavericks were idle the previous two days, however. So there should not be a fatigue factor. | |||||||
12-11-23 | Pacers v. Pistons +7 | 131-123 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
Talk about your dead spots. This sure is one for the Pacers. | |||||||
12-11-23 | Heat -3.5 v. Hornets | 116-114 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
These two teams met in Charlotte on Nov. 14. The Heat were 6 1/2-point road favorites and won, 111-105. | |||||||
12-08-23 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 136-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Oklahoma City ranked among the top three point spread teams last season. The Thunder are in the top-three again this season covering 14 of their 20 games for 70 percent. This includes a 3-0 ATS record against Golden State this season. | |||||||
12-07-23 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 255 | Top | 128-119 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show |
This is the highest total of the NBA season. I'm not buying it. I get that the Pacers are the No. 1 scoring team in the league at 128.4 points and have gone above 120 points in each of their five tournament games. The Bucks are the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 122.3 points and have gone Over in their past four games. | |||||||
12-06-23 | Nets +4 v. Hawks | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The Hawks are an excellent fade when laying points. Atlanta is 2-9 ATS (18 percent) this season as chalk. | |||||||
12-05-23 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The records are almost identical. The Suns are 12-9. The Lakers are 12-8. | |||||||
12-04-23 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This game has more meaning than the usual early December regular-season matchup. It's a Western Conference quarterfinal game of the NBA in-season tournament with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the tournament Thursday in Las Vegas. | |||||||
12-01-23 | Wizards +11 v. Magic | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Sometimes to beat the NBA you have to go ugly. That's the case here in backing Washington. | |||||||
11-30-23 | Pistons +14 v. Knicks | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
I get that the Pistons are total dog crap, losers of an amazing 15 straight games. About the only good thing I can say about them is they have some promising young players and usually play with energy. | |||||||
11-29-23 | Suns -3 v. Raptors | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Even if Kevin Durant misses this game, and he's questionable with a foot injury, I still like Phoenix to cover this short number. | |||||||
11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -119 | Top | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The Kings are home, playing much better than the Warriors and have double revenge. So it's not too much to ask them to simply win this game. | |||||||
11-27-23 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 234.5 | 126-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
What do you do when idiots meet? Take the Over. That's what I'm doing in this matchup between the two worst teams in the NBA, Wizards and Pistons. | |||||||
11-25-23 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | 97-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
I like getting points with the better defensive team that has motivation and is in good current form. | |||||||
11-24-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Grizzlies | 110-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
I find this number short given that both teams were idle on Thanksgiving and the Suns shouldn't lack a killer instinct. | |||||||
11-21-23 | Jazz +7.5 v. Lakers | 99-131 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Too many points for the Lakers to lay. Only twice in 14 games have the Lakers beaten a team by more than six points. Those two teams were the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, who are a combined 6-20. | |||||||
11-21-23 | Blazers +13 v. Suns | Top | 107-120 | Push | 0 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Down all of their best backcourt scorers with Damian Lillard traded and Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson each hurt, the Trail Blazers are tough to get behind. Portland has lost seven in a row and is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. | |||||||
11-21-23 | Pacers +4 v. Hawks | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
This has the makings of a crazy, high-scoring game where the last team with the ball wins. That's one reason why I like the underdog Pacers. Another is Indiana is off an embarrassing 12-point home loss to Orlando this past Sunday in a game where the final doesn't fully reflect how bad the Magic stomped the Pacers. Rick Carlisle was far from pleased with the defensive effort of his Pacers. Indiana has won and covered the past three times following a defeat. | |||||||
11-20-23 | Heat -115 v. Bulls | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Miami had won seven straight games entering this past Saturday's road matchup against the Bulls. The Heat scored 22 of the first 23 points against Chicago leading them to overconfidence. | |||||||
11-17-23 | Pistons +9 v. Cavs | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The 5-6 Cavaliers aren't good enough to overlook any opponent, especially when they might be without their assist leader and third-leading scorer, Darius Garland. He's questionable with a neck injury that kept him out of Clevaland's last game. That was a 14-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Wednesday. | |||||||
11-15-23 | Mavs v. Wizards UNDER 245 | 130-117 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Taking the Under in a Washington Wizards game can cause anxiety not to mention a loss in the bankroll. But I find this total just too high considering the Mavericks' circumstances and the Wizards' current form. Dallas suffered its worst loss of the season last night to the Pelicans, 131-110. The Mavericks should be fired-up following that embarrassment. This is the second of back-to-back games for Dallas, though. So the pace could be toned down. There's also the chance that either Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving is rested. The Wizards are highly volatile. There have been just 196 and 218 combined points scored in Washington's last two games. | |||||||
11-14-23 | Blazers +6.5 v. Jazz | 99-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
When it's bad on bad like this, take the points especially when it goes past the key basketball number of six. | |||||||
11-13-23 | Cavs -140 v. Kings | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are healthy and dangerous. The Warriors found that out the hard way when they lost to Cleveland, 118-110, as 4 1/2-point home favorites two days ago. Now the Cavaliers take on a much worse Sacramento team that is unlikely to have its key player, DeAaron Fox. | |||||||
11-12-23 | Hornets v. Knicks UNDER 226.5 | 107-129 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
First off, this is a very early Sunday start time. That's often a plus for the Under as teams are used to playing at night. | |||||||
11-10-23 | Clippers +1.5 v. Mavs | 126-144 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
The Clippers are putting a lot of emphasis on winning this finale of their four-game road trip after losing the first three games. LA's 3-point shooting is due to improve. The Clippers are just 19-of-68 (28 percent) from 3-point range in their past two games, losses to the Knicks and Nets. | |||||||
11-09-23 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
Both teams played and won Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo received some unexpected extra rest. Antetokounmpo logged only 22 minutes because he was tossed midway through the third quarter against the Pistons after making a slam dunk basket. Apparently the referees thought people were paying to watch them instead of Antetokounmpo. | |||||||
11-08-23 | Blazers +8.5 v. Kings | 118-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
De'Aaron Fox is the most important player on Sacramento's roster. He's out with an ankle injury. Fox didn't play in the Kings' last three games. Sacramento went 0-3 in those games, including getting blown out twice by the lowly Rockets. | |||||||
11-06-23 | Wizards +11.5 v. 76ers | 128-146 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Wizards are a tough team to get behind with their lack of defense. But this is a good spot for them. | |||||||
11-03-23 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are really missing suspended Ja Morant. They are the NBA's lone winless team at 0-5. Memphis is averaging 106.6 points and ranks second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies have prided themselves on defense. They just gave up 133 points to the Jazz in an embarrassing 24-point loss two days ago. | |||||||
11-02-23 | Raptors v. 76ers -8 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
The 76ers are in action for the first time since trading James Harden. They also haven't played since Sunday. So the 76ers should have energy and motivation. The talent certainly is there. | |||||||
11-01-23 | Nets +5.5 v. Heat | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
The Heat are not built for the early part of the season. This is when they historically struggle and it's happening again this season. If it weren't for a one-point victory against the lowly Pistons, the Heat would be 0-4. | |||||||
10-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs +3.5 | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers have been pointing to this matchup ever since the Knicks eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Knicks took advantage of Cleveland's outside shooting deficiencies and rebounding. | |||||||
10-28-23 | Grizzlies v. Wizards | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
It's not asking too much for the Grizzlies to beat the Wizards. Memphis, after all, is the vastly superior team. The Grizzlies were 20 games above .500 last season. Washington finished eight games below .500. | |||||||
10-27-23 | Nets +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-125 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are superstars.Their presence, though, makes the Mavericks overrated. Doncic may be the best player to have in fantasy basketball, but Dallas isn't that good. The roster is very mediocre once you get past Doncic and Irving. | |||||||
10-25-23 | Blazers v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 111-123 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
The NBA season tipped off Tuesday with two games. Both went Under. I see this game going Under, too, as teams make the transition from preseason to regular-season intensity. | |||||||
10-25-23 | Rockets +4 v. Magic | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
The perception here is the Rockets are a bottom-feeder and the Magic are an up-and-coming team. | |||||||
10-25-23 | Celtics -3 v. Knicks | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
I find this line to be short. The Celtics are an elite team and they got better during the off-season acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. | |||||||
10-24-23 | Lakers +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-119 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
The Nuggets came together in impressive fashion last season winning 16 of 20 playoff games to capture the NBA championship. One of Denver's victims was the Lakers. | |||||||
06-12-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 89-94 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
It's no fluke the Nuggets are on the verge of clinching the NBA championship with a 3-1 series lead. But the Heat have earned the right to be backed taking this many points. Miami has pulled off three double-digit fourth-quarter comeback wins in the postseason. They won Game 2 in Denver down by seven points in the final period. They are a well-coached, tough team both physically and mentally. So I will accept this many points knowing that if key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combine for two points while shooting a combined 1-for-10 from the floor and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, the Heat are likely to lose by double-digits. That was the case in Game 4 with Denver winning, 108-95. The Nuggets were sharp in their 108-95 road win in Game 4 this past Friday. They shot 49 percent from the floor and hit 14 of 28 3-point shots for 50 percent. That's going to be difficult to repeat. So is Aaron Gordon scoring 27 points while making 11 of 15 shots from the field and hitting three of four 3-pointers after he made just five 3-pointers during his previous eight games. The Heat, by contrast, made 8-of-25 3-pointers for 32 percent in Game 4. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are playing great. Bam Adebayo, though, is producing strong numbers for Miami and Jimmy Butler is off his best all-around game in this series with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. It boils down to faith. I have it in Butler, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and Vincent to keep things close with their season on the brink. | |||||||
06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
Let's be realistic about the Heat. They don't have the height, nor the offense, to match up to Nuggets' superstars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. If Miami gets demoralized and its role players aren't hitting their perimeter shots, the Heat are dead in the water. That's what happened in Game 3 this past Wednesday when the Nuggets won, 109-94, on the road. The Nuggets outrebounded the Heat, 58-33, and outscored them by 26 points in the paint. So it's easy to see why the Heat are a home 'dog for this Game 4. Discount Miami at your own peril, however. The Heat have been resilient all through the postseason. Just when you want to count them out they re-emerge. I see the Heat doing that again in this spot. I certainly don't expect the Heat to make 49 percent of their 3-point shots like they did in their Game 2 upset. But Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love and Max Strus should all combine to shoot much better than the 12-for-43 (28 percent) they hit from the floor in Wednesday's loss. Jokic and Murray played their ''A'' games in Game 3. Not so with Miami's stars. Jimmy Butler couldn't even reach five assists. He and Adebayo were a combined 18-for-45 (40 percent) from the field. They are due to shoot better while Jokic and especially Murray can't play much better than they did on Wednesday. Eric Spoelstra has bolstered his already strong reputation during this postseason. He just could be the best coach in the NBA. So the Heat have that going. I expect they'll have super defensive intensity, which they lacked in Game 3 especially when they started falling way behind. The Heat have covered seven of the last nine times following a loss. I'm banking on a strong bounce effort from Miami. | |||||||
06-07-23 | Nuggets v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
There were 219 points scored in Miami's 111-108 Game 2 win against the Nuggets this past Sunday. This is what it took to reach that number: The Nuggets shot 52 percent from the floor. The Heat hit 49 percent from the floor and sank 17 of 35 shots from 3-point range for 49 percent. The teams combined to make 37 of 42 free throws for 88 percent. Yet because the pace was slow, it was a major sweat for that total to go Over 216. The tempo is going to be slow and deliberate again in this Game 3 except I don't see either team shooting nearly that well - especially the Heat from 3-point range. I also don't see 42 free throws. There were 22 free throws in Game 1 with the Heat getting to the line only twice. Miami was 27th in 3-point field goal percentage during the season at 34.4 percent. The Heat have shot much better from beyond the arc during the playoffs at 39.2 percent. But they are not a 49 percent 3-point shooting team. No team is. That Game 2 3-point shooting was an outlier. Erik Spoelstra did make adjustments following Miami's Game 1 loss, pressing more and using a 2-3 zone more. He also resurrected veteran Kevin Love, whose height and rebounding bothered Jamal Murray. Murray also was burdened defensively as the Heat seemed to key on him. That might have affected his offensive game. Michael Porter Jr. has been nearly invisible for Denver. He's missed 14 of 17 3-pointers while averaging just 9.5 points. This is putting a lot of pressure on Nikola Jokic to do everything and on Aaron Gordon to produce points and Gordon isn't a big scorer being more of a rebounder, shot-blocker and defender. Jimmy Butler isn't playing well for the Heat. Perhaps still bothered by a sore ankle and the fatigue of carrying the Heat to this late point of the season, he's averaging 17 points in this championship series while shooting 13-of-33 (39.3 percent) from the field. The Nuggets have also been keying on Butler. It's a lot to ask of unsung Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin, who has been under the weather, to produce big scoring games in lieu of Butler's disappointing offense. | |||||||
06-07-23 | Nuggets -136 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
The Nuggets are better than the Heat. But the Nuggets learned a big lesson in their Game 2 Sunday home loss to Miami. They can't mail anything in. No overconfidence. Winning seven consecutive playoff games and being unbeaten at home during the postseason doesn't mean anything. It's going to take maximum energy and better play from every Denver starter not named Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have had three days to pick up on that. I believe they've learned their lesson. I see the Nuggets producing their most intense game of the series. I also don't believe the Heat can make an astonishing 17 of 35 (49 percent) 3-pointers like they did in Game 2. Miami has lost its last two home playoff games falling to the Celtics by one and 17 points. The Nuggets have won their last three road games beating the Lakers by two and 11 points and the Suns by 25. So don't think Denver can't win away from home. Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope did not play up to their capabilities in Game 2. Yet Denver still only lost by three points. All three should play much better along with the Nuggets playing with far more intensity and having the best player on the planet in Jokic. Given that, it's not asking too much for the Nuggets to win this Game 3. | |||||||
06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 214.5 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 49 h 28 m | Show |
This is Denver's lowest total of the season and an overreaction to the Nuggets' 104-93 Game 1 home win this past Thursday. That was a feel-out game. The Heat were still on fumes following their Game 7 upset win against the Celtics and were not used to the high mountain altitude in Denver. The Nuggets were rusty having not played in 10 days. All of this showed in Thursday's opener. The teams combined to shoot just 31.8 percent from 3-point range making 21-of-66 shots from beyond the arc. The Heat were only 13-of-39 from 3-point range with six of those 3-pointers coming when the game already was out of reach. This despite getting good looks throughout the game. This was Miami's worst shooting 3-point game of the playoffs. They were shooting 39 percent from 3-point range during the postseason entering this championship matchup. The Nuggets shot 37.9 percent from beyond the arc going into the playoffs. They made only eight of their 27 3-point shots for 29.6 percent. The Heat also only got to shoot two free throws! It was the first time Jimmy Butler didn't have a free throw attempt during the postseason. The Nuggets are not some dominant defensive team either. They ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage. I see Butler coming out extra aggressive for this Game 2. It was obvious in Game 1 that the Nuggets' frontcourt size was too much for the Heat. Nikola Jokic isn't just a great triple-threat talent. He's also extremely intelligent. He can find Miami's weakness and exploit it either by scoring, or passing off. Michael Porter Jr. isn't likely to miss nine of 11 3-point shots. He finished in the top 20 in 3-point shooting accuracy during the regular season at 41.4 percent. There's not much Miami coach Erik Spoelstra can do. One option would be for him to go with his best offensive weapons playing them as much as possible. That would be the dream scenario for this Over and could happen as the Nuggets are easily capable of reaching their season average of 115.8 points. They were the No. 1 shooting team in the NBA during the regular season making 50.4 percent of their field goals. | |||||||
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 68 h 9 m | Show |
The Heat are the first play-in team to ever make the NBA Championship Series. But they need more time to rest and recuperate after upsetting the Celtics on the road this past Monday in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Even if they had ample time to prepare, though, I don't see the Heat staying within double-digits of the home Nuggets in Thursday's Game 1. The Nuggets have been idle since May 22. They've won six in a row and are 42-7 at home this season, including 8-0 in the playoffs. If the Heat thought Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were a load, wait until they encounter Nikola Jokic and James Murray. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and Murray had a series for the ages in Denver's four-game sweep of the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Murray led all scorers in that series averaging 32.5 points while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, hitting 40.5 percent of his 37 3-point attempts and sinking 19-of-20 free throws. The Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers and they surely will out-rebound the undersized Heat. | |||||||
05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The Heat and Celtics meet in Game 7 for the Eastern Conference championship. The talk is all about how the Celtics have a great chance to be the first team in NBA history to come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit. That's fine and dandy. But when it comes to betting, I find a different angle - the total. It is the lowest of the series by far. The totals have ranged from 209-to-216 in the first six games. This one is much lower because of the perception there will be tremendous defensive intensity. Sure neither team will be holding back. But there is way too much good 3-point shooting in today's NBA. That offsets any extra defensive effort. The Celtics are averaging 108.8 points in the series. Miami is averaging 110.1 points. The Celtics were the fourth-highest scoring team during the regular season at 118 points per game. There have been at least 207 combined points scored in each of the six games. Even if the referees let the teams play super physical, there still are going to be fouls called. If the game is called tight, there will be lots of fouls called. The Heat were the second-best foul shooting team in the league. Boston ranked sixth in free throw percentage. Jimmy Butler shot 5-for-21 from the field in Game 6. Miami still scored 104 points. It's worth noting that Gabe Vincent, who is averaging 20.3 points during his last three games, played 41 minutes this past Saturday in Game 6. So it appears he's past his ankle injury. The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they are dealing with a stacked deck on the road going against Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who is shooting much better going 18-for-34 from the floor the past two games. It's an added bonus if Malcolm Brogdon can play for Boston after missing Game 6 with an arm injury. Bottom line is the oddsmaker has overcompensated on the total because it's Game 7 giving value to the Over. | |||||||
05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
A combination of Boston's improved defense and injuries are taking a huge toll on Miami. The Celtics have held the Heat to 97 and 99 points, respectively, during the past two games to cut Miami's once insurmountable 3-0 series lead to 3-2. Boston has forced 32 turnovers during these past two games, 10 by Bam Adebayo. The Celtics have double-teamed Jimmy Butler much more than they did during the first two games of the series. A 53.9 percent shooter from the floor during the regular season, Butler is just 19-for-44 (43 percent) from the field during the last three games. Losing underrated Gabe Vincent to an ankle injury has hurt the Heat more than perceived. Already without scoring wings/guards Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo, the Heat desperately need Vincent's outside scoring. Vincent averaged a combined 23 points in Games 3 and 4 hitting 16-of-24 shots from the floor. However, he missed Game 5. He's questionable for tonight's game. Even if he plays, his shooting may be off because of his ankle injury. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra doesn't have many viable options with veterans Kyle Lowery and Kevin Love each well past their primes and looking very old. The Heat's best option is to completely sell out on defense since the Celtics have stymied their offense. Miami certainly can win relying heavily on defense. They gave up the second-fewest points in the league during the regular season. It's defense, not offense, after all that is Miami's calling card. The Celtics are not unscathed in the health department. Guard Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with an elbow injury. It caused him to leave Game 5. Brogdon was Boston's third-leading scorer during the regular season at 14.9 points a game. He also was fourth on the team in assists. Both teams made 51 percent of their field goals in Game 5. Yet there were just 207 points scored. That's because it was the slowest paced game of the series. I'm expecting another slow tempo game only this time without such outstanding shooting. That should ensure a third straight Under in the series. | |||||||
05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 97-110 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Celtics for staying alive with their 116-99 road win against the Heat in Tuesday's Game 4. But it's not a fluke the Heat lead this Eastern Conference Finals series, 3-1. They are the superior team. Forget the regular season. It doesn't matter. What does matter is the Heat peaking having eliminated the Bucks - who were perhaps the top team in the NBA - Knicks and winning the first three games against the Celtics before stumbling on Tuesday by playing a poor second half. I like Miami because it has a monster edge in coaching, the best all-around player on the court in Jimmy Butler, the best low-post player in Bam Adebayo and is the stronger defensive team. The Celtics are perceived to have the more talented roster. I don't buy into that. At worst, Butler and Adebayo give Miami the second and third-best players on the court if Jayson Tatum is the No. 1 player. Jaylen Brown is having a bad series. His head doesn't seem right. Al Horford is showing his age as the long season winds down for Boston, while the Heat are getting major contributions from below-the-radar rotation players Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson. Coaching is crucial in the playoffs. Erik Spoelstra is coaching rings around inexperienced rookie Boston coach Joe Mazzulla. The Heat have covered in 10 of their last 13 games. Yes, the Celtics are back home. But they are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. | |||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat -125 | Top | 116-99 | Loss | -125 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
Mike Budenholzer, Monty Williams, Doc Rivers and Nick Nurse are about to have company in the fired coaches department. Sometime Tuesday night after the Celtics get swept by the Heat, a team they were 13 games better than during the regular season, Boston management needs to pull the plug on Joe Mazzulla. The Celtics have shown no leadership, coaching ability and guts in losing the first three games of this Eastern Conference Finals. Boston was outscored by an average of 6.5 points in its two home games in the series and then was blown out by 26 points in Miami during Sunday's Game 3. The Celtics have surrendered an average of 120.6 points to the Heat, who were the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. Somewhere Red Auerbach is turning over in his grave. I've closely watched the NBA for 60 years and have never seen a worse coaching job in a playoff series than what the overmatched Mazzulla has done. Every button he touches is the wrong one. Boston's confidence and morale is shattered. So why should things be any different in Game 4? Answer: They won't be. The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 6-0 in their six home playoff games. Mazzulla isn't suddenly going to outcoach Erik Spoelstra. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are still going to give Miami the best all-around player on the court and best big man even if Mazzulla decides he might want to finally double-team Butler a little more. The Celtics are 31-for-106 (29.2 percent) from 3-point range. Jaylen Brown, showing he's not ready for prime time, has missed 18 of 20 3-pointers. The Celtics are due to make a higher percentage of their 3-point shots. But I have no confidence in them to do that - and sadly neither do they. | |||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Judging by the first three games of this series, Denver clearly is the superior team. The Nuggets have a huge height advantage, they are the more physically imposing team, are getting better play from their bench than LA is and have the look of a champion while the Lakers are worn down - physically and mentally. The Nuggets proved they could win on the road, beating the Lakers, 119-108, in LA. this past Saturday night. Denver was in control all the way. So I see the wrong team being favored. The Lakers did a remarkable job to even reach this point. There were 12 teams ahead of them in late February. LA became the first team to advance to the conference finals after being eight games under .500. But 13 playoff games against the Grizzlies and Warriors and now three games against the Nuggets with just one day spaced out have taken a huge toll. It's caught up to 38-year-old LeBron James, fragile Anthony Davis and the rest of the Lakers. The Lakers don't have the height to contest the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic is averaging 27 points, 14.7 rebounds and 11.3 assists in the series. LA can't stop him. Jamal Murray is averaging 35 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. They have been the two best players in the series. The Lakers have no answers for either one. Denver's support cast has outplayed the Lakers, too. Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have hurt the Lakers not just with their scoring, but with their defense. The Lakers are averaging 105.5 points in the last two games. That's 12 points down from their season average. Getting points with Denver is just an added bonus. | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals series went Over. Now it's time for an Under with the teams playing in Miami. The Heat were the No. 2 defensive team in the league. They've been tough defensively at home giving up an average of 97.1 points in their last six postseason games, which consisted of three games against the Knicks, two versus the Bucks and one against the Bulls. The Celtics need to find their defense. I expect Boston to play with desperate intensity on defense down 2-0 in the series. The Celtics ranked in the top-five in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
Maybe if Brad Stevens would immediately fire Joe Mazzulla and install himself as coach again the Celtics might have a chance to beat the Heat. But since that isn't going to happen, the Heat are likely to keep winning especially now that they are the home team. There are five things we've learned from the first two games of this Eastern Conference Finals, which the Heat lead, 2-0: Jimmy Butler is the best all-around player on the court. Grant Williams is an idiot. Jaylen Brown is not a star. Bam Adebayo is the best big man on the court. Mazzulla is hugely overmatched by Erik Spoelstra on the sidelines. The Heat won the first two games of this series on the road by an average of 6 1/2 points. The Celtics aren't playing championship caliber defense giving up an average of 117 points to Miami. Maybe the Celtics turn on their defensive switch. I don't see it. I have absolutely zero faith in rookie coach Mazzulla. Miami has the momentum and is the more confident team. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They have won all five of their playoff home games. Getting points with the Heat is just a bonus. | |||||||
05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
The Nuggets and their coach, Michael Malone, believe they are being disrespected by the national media who tend to play up the high-profile Lakers. Yes, perhaps Nikola Jokic should have won a third straight MVP award. But the Nuggets can't be considered a great team if they can't win on the road. Denver has yet to prove that. The Nuggets finished the regular season an embarrassing 19-22 away from home and are 2-3 SU and ATS in their five playoff road games. The Lakers are 6-0 SU and ATS at home during the postseason. They've covered five of the past six times they've hosted Denver. The Nuggets lead the series 2-0 by virtue of winning both of their home games. However, the Nuggets didn't cover either game winning by six and five points, respectively. Denver had to hang on to win these games despite Jokic playing at the highest level and Jamal Murray averaging 34 points. The teams have each won four of the eight quarters played. The Lakers have been to the free throw line 12 more times than the Nuggets. And this was in Denver. Now the scene shifts to LA where the Lakers are in must-win mode and the Nuggets have played much worse away from Denver. The Lakers aren't just a two man team of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura have stepped up, combining to average 41.5 points per game. | |||||||
05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
The oddsmaker seems to be anticipating Celtics money making Boston this big of a favorite. The Zig/Zag is in full force here with the Celtics down 0-1 in the series and playing at home. But I'm not buying into it. There's too much value on the Heat - just like in Wednesday's series opener - to turn down this inflated point spread. The Heat are playing with tremendous confidence. They are not the No. 8 seed that had to beat the Bulls in a play-in game to even reach the playoffs. It's wrong to think of them in that context. Certainly the Bucks and Knicks don't think that way now. Miami is an extremely well-coached, a strong defensive team - No. 2 in the league in fewest points allowed - that is being willed to win by Jimmy Butler. He's the best all-around player on the court. The Heat also have the best big man, Bam Adebayo. These teams know each extremely well, which should portend a much closer game than the oddsmaker projects. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Heat lost by more than nine points. I certainly want Erik Spoelstra going for me rather than rookie coach Joe Mazzulla. Miami has covered eight of the last 10 times when playing on one day's rest. The Heat also are 6-1 in their last seven games following a cover and are 14-5 ATS the last 19 times playing the Celtics in Boston. | |||||||
05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The Lakers shot 55 percent from the floor in Game 1 of this Western Conference Finals series against the Nuggets on Tuesday. They hit 46 percent of their 3-point shots and were 23 of 26 from the foul line. LeBron James and Anthony Davis played at their superstar best combining to go 23-for-39 from the field for 59 percent. Yet the Lakers still lost by six points, 132-126. The Lakers couldn't overcome Nikola Jokic - the best player on the planet - a huge size disadvantage and Denver's strong home-court edge. The Nuggets are 7-0 in their home playoff games. The 132 points is the most points they've scored in their dozen playoff games this spring. The Game 2 point spread, however, opened lower than it was in Game 1. So I'm going Nuggets not forgetting Denver is a No. 1 seed. LA is a seventh-seed. Lakers coach Darvin Ham prefers to go with a small, three-guard oriented lineup. That's not going to work against the Nuggets, who have a frontline of 6-foot-11 Jokic, 6-10 Michael Porter Jr. and 6-8 Aaron Gordon. The Nuggets slaughtered the Lakers on the boards, 47-30. Ham isn't a moron. He knows he can't go small against the Nuggets. But to do that, he and the Lakers have to adjust on the road. LA also is trailing in a playoff series for the first time having opened with road wins against the Grizzlies and Warriors. All of this could put the Lakers out of their comfort zone. Jokic was unstoppable with 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists. The Lakers have no antidote for him. Meanwhile James and Davis could be pressed to repeat their top-notch Game 1 performances particularly Davis, who was 14-of-23 from the field and made all 11 of his free throws scoring 40 points. Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games - and that includes not covering against the Lakers in Game 1. LA is 1-4 ATS in its last five away games. The Lakers also are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 games in Denver. Prop Bet Rui Hachimura OVER 11 1/2 points Here's the thing about Rui Hachimura. When he plays, he's an underrated scorer. Lakers coach Darvin Ham figured out in Game 1 that he couldn't play his usual small lineup of three guards against the much taller Nuggets. It took Ham a half to realize that. Hachimura, a 6-foot-8 rotation forward, played the entire fourth quarter. That's a strong sign Hachimura is going to draw big minutes in this Game 2. He responded by scoring 17 points in Game 1. So I look for him to score at least a dozen points in this game. | |||||||
05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
Line value, situation, better defensive team and a huge coaching edge. Those are the four main factors that put me on Miami for this Game 1 Eastern Conference Finals series. I'm surprised the line is this high. Erik Spoelstra, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are not Doc Rivers and choke artists James Harden and Joel Embiid. The Heat know how to play defense - No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game - and they are rested. Miami hasn't played since Wednesday. The Celtics still could be celebrating their dismantling of the 76ers this past Sunday. Miami is extremely dangerous with time to prepare. The Heat upset the Bucks on the road in Game 1 of their first-round series. Miami repeated in Game 1 of its second round series upsetting the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Heat are 39-17 (70 percent) ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They also have covered 13 of the past 18 times against the Celtics. Spoelstra could be the best coach in the NBA. He rates a huge edge on Boston's inexperienced Joe Mazzulla. | |||||||
05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 88-112 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
So we've reached Game 7 in this 76ers-Celtics series. That means plenty of defensive intensity, right? Yes ... but the oddsmaker has wildly overcompensated for that. The total for the first six games ranged from 211 to 215 1/2. Now it's down more than 10 from that norm. It's too much. The 76ers haven't had a total nearly this low all season. Neither has Boston. Jayson Tatum is going to shoot better than the 5-for-21 from the field he did in Game 6 and Joel Embiid is going to get more shots than the 19 he had in Game 6, hardly touching the ball during the final four minutes. The 76ers will rectify that. The 76ers averaged 117 points in their two road victories against Boston. If anything was reinforced to the 76ers in their 95-86 home loss to the Celtics in Game 6 it's that they must push pace in order to create open shots and better looks. I believe the 76ers have picked up on that. The Over is 4-0 the past four times following a Philadelphia ATS loss. As for the Celtics, the Over has cashed in eight of their last 10 games. Both teams are excellent from the foul line and from 3-point range. The 76ers were No. 1 in free throw shooting accuracy during the regular season. Boston ranked fourth in free throw percentage. The Celtics also were sixth in 3-point shooting percentage. The 76ers were No. 1 in 3-point accuracy. There isn't going to be a lot of substituting here. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Embiid and James Harden are going to be firing. I trust them to get Over this extremely low total. | |||||||
05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
Sure the Knicks could upset the Heat in Miami. But it would take a repeat of their Game 5 performance this past Wednesday when their Big Three of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett combined to score 88 points on 27 of 52 shooting from the floor for 52 percent, while sinking 11 3-pointers. And, realistically, I don't see the Knicks duplicating that feat. Not in Miami where the Heat have dominated in the postseason. Miami is 4-0 SU and ATS at Kaseya Center in the playoffs. This includes two victories against the Bucks by a combined 27 points and two wins against the Knicks by a combined 27 points never trailing except for 24 seconds. It's not a fluke either. The Heat have established they are the superior team. The Knicks gained some self-respect and redemption with their 112-103 Game 5 victory. But that's as far as they go. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 times they've hosted the Knicks. | |||||||
05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 95-86 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The NBA playoffs often are decided by three things - superstars, coaching and defense. The 76ers have the edge on Boston in all three of these categories. That's why they are going to end this series with a home victory today. Getting points with Philadelphia is just a bonus. Let's start with star power. The 76ers have a pair of superstars, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Tyrese Maxey is stepping up and Tobias Harris can be counted on. Boston has one superstar, Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown certainly is good, but he falls short of being a superstar. The Celtics don't have a reliable third wheel who can produce points the way Maxey and Harris can. Now, let's talk coaching. Doc Rivers is a proven winner. The Celtics know that better than any team. Maybe Rivers is more of a player's coach than a master strategist. But pitted against rookie coach Joe Mazzulla, Rivers is Red Auerbach, Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich rolled into one. From 2004 through the end of last season, the Celtics had strong coaching with Rivers, Brad Stevens and Ime Udoka. The Celtics, however, made the decision to suspend Udoka for this season for what they labeled ''violations of team policies.'' Udoka's chief assistant was 34-year-old whiz kid Will Hardy. Unfortunately for Boston, Danny Ainge poached Hardy for Utah. So the Celtics named Mazzulla, a lesser assistant coach, as their interim coach even though he had no NBA head coaching experience. When the Celtics got off to a hot start, the team removed the interim label making Mazzulla permanent head coach. Boston may want to rethink that move. Playoff coaching is different then regular season coaching. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is a master in that difference. Milwaukee's Mike Budenholzer wasn't. Mazzulla isn't either. This is a fatal weakness. The Bucks knew it. That's why they fired Budenholzer even though he had the best regular-season winning percentage of any Bucks coach in Milwaukee history. It's not just Mazzulla's highly noticeable deficiency in failing to take timeouts at the proper time. Mazzulla hasn't proven adept at developing the right rotation, nor in making adjustments. Udoka, aided by Hardy, were able to mitigate the Celtics' offensive inconsistencies, by stepping up defensively. The Celtics have yet to show that ability under Mazzulla. Boston gave up an average of 122.5 points in its last four games to the Hawks during its first-round series. I have no faith in Mazzulla that he can lead the Celtics to a road victory against the 76ers with the season on the line after losing Game 5 at home by 12 points. | |||||||
05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 226.5 | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The strain of playing for the fifth time in nine days during this marquee playoff series, should result in an Under here. These are teams whose key players are older. So I'm expecting a slow pace with both the Lakers and Warriors playing at peak defensive efficiency and intensity. The Under is 4-1 the past five times the Lakers have played on one day's rest. The Under has cashed five of the last seven times the Warriors have played on one day's rest. The Lakers have held the Warriors to an average of 99 points during the last two games. There were just 205 points scored in the Lakers' 104-101 Game 4 victory two days ago. If the Warriors were to build a big lead - which could happen judging by the point spread - the Lakers might concede early in order to rest LeBron James and Anthony Davis knowing they would have two more games to close out Golden State. | |||||||
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
This series has a strong Zig/Zag feel to it. The Suns returned to Phoenix down 0-2 and proceeded to win both home games. Now the Suns go back to Denver for Game 5. I want the Nuggets going for me here. It's not just the Zig-Zag either. Denver is dominant at home going 39-7 this season. This includes a 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS playoff mark. The Nuggets defeated the Suns by 18 and 10 points, respectively, during the first two games of the series. Denver hung in against the Suns in Phoenix, but couldn't overcome the Suns' fantastic shooting. Phoenix shot 50.5 percent from the floor in Game 3 and 56.8 percent from the field in Game 4. Devin Booker shot a mind-blowing combined 34-for-43 from the floor for 79 percent in Games 3 and 4. No way can Booker and the Suns keep up that kind of torrid shooting. Denver ranked No. 8 defensively during the regular season. The Nuggets have a huge edge in the middle with Nikola Jokic dominating Deandre Ayton and Denver holding a rotation and bench edge. Chris Paul has missed the last two games with a groin injury. If Paul were to return, you have to wonder how close to 100 percent he would be. The Suns also are 0-2 against the Nuggets in this series with Paul in the starting lineup. | |||||||
05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of the 76ers' dramatic 116-115 home overtime victory against the Celtics this past Sunday was this game had the slowest tempo of any game in the NBA playoffs this season. There were 214 points scored in regulation because of excellent shooting, especially from James Harden, who made 16 of 23 (69.5 percent) shots from the field. Harden shot 44.1 percent from the floor during the regular season. He was 5-for-28 shooting from the field in his two previous games. Now the series is tied at 2-2 with the teams heading back to Boston for Tuesday's Game 5. Anticipate a maximum defensive intensity game between a pair of teams that ranked in the top-five in defensive scoring and 3-point defense during the regular season. I'm expecting a crackdown, too, on offensive players getting away with obvious push-off fouls that weren't called in Game 4 with Jayson Tatum's 3-pointer with 38 seconds left in overtime being the most obvious example. | |||||||
05-08-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Because I don't trust the Warriors on the road. Golden State has lost 33 of its 46 road games this season. If you go back to the end of last season, the Warriors are 17-37-1 ATS (31 percent) ATS in their last 55 away contests. They also have failed to cover during their last four road games against the Lakers. LA destroyed the Warriors, 127-97, at home in Saturday's Game 3. That pushed LA's postseason home record to 5-0. All of the victories have been by six or more points. The Lakers have peaked at the right time going 16-5 since March 17. I trust their defense more than the Warriors when Golden State is on the road. LeBron James and Anthony Davis received extra rest from Saturday's blowout victory. |
Service | Profit |
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Ray Monohan | $759 |
Joey Tron | $580 |
William Burns | $483 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Tom Macrina | $468 |
Jesse Schule | $466 |
Matt Fargo | $398 |
Big Al McMordie | $324 |
Ricky Tran | $258 |
AAA Sports | $229 |