12-30-15 |
Memphis v. Auburn OVER 62.5 | Top | 10-31 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEM@AUB to go OVER the total.
The Memphis Tigers won't be intimidated facing an SEC team in the Birmingham Bowl, as they beat on a much better SEC team when they won at home by a score of 37-24 against Ole Miss in October. I think they'll score their fair share of points against Auburn here, but it might not matter if they can't stop the Tigers from scoring. Memphis ranked 113th nationally allowing opponents to average over 269 passing yards per game during the regular season. Auburn's quarterback Jeremy Johnson had a disappointing season, but he looked pretty solid scoring four TDs in a 56-34 win over Idaho in Week 14. Allowing the Vanals to score 34 points in that game doesn't say a lot for their defense. So far we haven't seen a lot of defense in these bowl games, and I expect that trend to continue here today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-28-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Navy OVER 52.5 | Top | 28-44 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PIT@NAVY to go OVER the total.
The Navy Midshipmen will play the Pittsburgh Panthers at home in the Military Bowl, and I expect to see both these teams score their share of points. The total opened at 56, but has since been bet down a few points. Navy won 10 games during the season, and it's Triple-Option Offense was very successful. Pittsburgh managed to beat Georgia Tech earlier this season, but the Yellow Jackets who run a similar offense ran all over them, totaling 376 yards and three rushing TDs in a 31-28 loss. They lost to Notre Dame, and the Irish ran for 175 yards, winning 42-30. Pittsburgh has gone over in four of it's last five non-conference games, and Navy has gone over in nine of it's last 13 games on artificial turf.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-15 |
Giants v. Vikings UNDER 44.5 | | 17-49 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYG@MIN to go UNDER the total.
The Giants are now playing for pride after Washington clinched the NFC East with a 38-24 win at Philly on Saturday. The Vikings on the other hand are still battling the Packers for first place in the NFC North, so we can expect them to be prepared to grind out a win. The Giants defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping the pass, but the Vikings aren't likely to air it out as much as their previous opponents have. The Vikings rank 31st in the NFL averaging just 191 passing yards per game. Cold winter weather could make passing even more difficult for both teams, with sub-zero temperatures, wind and chances of snow in the forecast. Adrian Peterson will play for the Vikings, but he's only totaled 150 yards on 49 carries over the last three weeks, while being bothered by an ankle injury. The under is 6-2 in Minnesota's last eight home games, and the Vikes have seen five of their last seven meetings with New York fall short of the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 41-38 |
Win | 100 | 159 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.
The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.
The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games.
He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.
The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 49 | Top | 35-28 |
Loss | -102 | 101 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@NE to go UNDER the total.
The Eagles have looked like the worst team in the NFL the last two weeks, losing back to back blowouts at Detroit and at home to Tampa Bay. This week's game at Foxboro looks like a tough one at first glance, but there are plenty of reasons to expect the unexpected. The Pats appear to be vulnerable, coming off a tough loss at Denver last Sunday. While they lost on the scoreboard, they also lost TE Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury, and defenders Patrick Chung and Donta Hightower were also banged up in Denver.
Tom Brady has been taking a beating the last few weeks, and he was sacked three times last Sunday. His receiving corps this week is likely to look like a practice squad, as in addition to the injury to Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson and Julian Edelman are out, and Danny Amendola is questionable.
More good news for Philly, it looks like starting quarterback Sam Bradford will return to face the Patriots after missing the last two games due to injury. The Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East, so there is still plenty to play for here. With all of New England's injuries, the bookmakers have ajusted the point spread by as much as six points, but the total remains the same. I think this is a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-17-15 |
Ball State v. Ohio UNDER 53 | Top | 31-48 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BALL@OHIO to go UNDER the total.
The Ohio Bob-Kittens will host Ball State in a Tuesday night game in the MAC. I'm calling them the the Bob-Kittens because their offense hasn't been all that ferocious lately. That being said, their defense did pitch a shutout in a 27-0 win over Kent State last week. I think we should see a similar score here tonight. Ball State has been one of the worst teams in the country this season, and they only managed 152 yards of total offense in a loss to Western Michigan last week. They gave up 54 points in that game, but Western Michigan's offense is a helluva lot better than this "Bob-Kittens" offfense.
Ohio only attempted 14 passes last week, and Derrius Vick threw for just 73 yards. The Cardinal likely won't be able to contend with Ohio's running game, so there is really no need to ask Vick to air it out here either. Ohio is only averaging 25 points per game, ranking 91st nationally. Eight of the last 10 of the Bobcats home games has gone under, and the Under is 10-4 in Bobcats last 14 conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-15 |
Giants v. Saints OVER 49 | | 49-52 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a Free play on NYG@NO to go OVER the total. New Orleans is coming off back to back upset wins over the Falcons and the Colts. Drew Brees has looked sharp since returning from injury, and he could be in for a big night against the Giants 31st ranked pass defense at home in the Superdome. Keep an eye on running back Mark Ingram as well, the 25 year old out of Alabama ran for a season high 143 yards and a TD against the Colts last week. Brees may have the luxury of having plenty of time to drop back in the pocket, as the Giants are really struggling to get to the quarterback. Just how bad is their pass rush? Well they've been using their backup fullback to fill in with so many injuries on defense. They also just signed Jason Pierre Paul to a contract despite the fact that he only has half of his right hand (the other half was blown off in a fireworks accident).
These teams have played three times since 2009, and they have combined to score more than 70 points in all three of those games. Only two teams in the NFL rank worse than the Saints in total defense, who rank 30th allowing opponents to score an average of 26.4 points per game. The Giants are not much better, ranking 29th, and they are likely going to struggle to stop this Saints offense in the Superdome. Brees threw for 319 yards on 30-of-39 passing in a 31-21 win over the Falcons in his last home game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-31-15 |
Nebraska v. Purdue UNDER 54 | Top | 45-55 |
Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEB@PUR to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Cornhuskers versus the Boilermakers in Indiana. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- Tommy Armstrong has been the Huskers biggest weapon on offense, both with his arm as well as his legs. He's thrown for over 2000 yards and 16 TDs this season, but he will not suit up here against Purdue as he's sidelined by a foot injury. - The under is 20-9 in Cornhuskers last 29 games on grass. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-15 |
Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | | 7-36 |
Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 2-Team (7-Point) Teaser with NE + OVER.
The Patriots continue to roll, coming off a 30-23 win over the Jets on Sunday. So what did we learn from that game? Most people would say that if the Patriots can score 30 points against the Jets defense, they can do it against anybody. The one thing that I noticed about that game was how the Patriots played with a lead in the fourth quarter. New England was in front 23-20, deep inside Jets territory with under two minutes to play. The book says you run the ball three times, burn up as much clock as possible, and if you can get a first down the game is over. That's exactly what we would have seen from any other NFL team in that situation, because the worst case scenario (barring a turnover) would be that you kick a chip shot FG to go up by six, and hand the ball back with just seconds on the clock forcing the other team to drive the length of the field for a TD.
The Pats did the unthinkable, allowing Tom Brady to drop back in the shotgun, and throw on every down. Not surprisingly they ended up tacking on another TD and went up by 10. While they increased their lead, the game was still far from over. The Jets then marched down the field and kicked a 55 yard field goal, and then executed a successful onside kick. This meant that New York still had a chance, whereas the game would have been over if the Pats could have just picked up 10 yards with three running plays.
Keep in mind, the Miami defense they are facing tonight is nowhere near as good statistically as the Jets. Miami is coming off consecutive wins, giving them a bit of swagger in their step. Those wins came against two of the league's bottom feeders though, and even in last week's blowout win over the Texans, Brian Hoyer lit them up for 273 yards, and three second half TDs.
The Dolphins have been out-scored 96-30 losing three straight in their last three trips to Foxboro, and going back further, they have lost 12 of their last 14 to the Pats.
Take NE+OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-15 |
NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 23-30 |
Loss | -105 | 62 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NYJ@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Colts in Indianapolis last week, but I think that sets them up for a let down here at home versus the Jets. This is by far the best team they have faced so far, and yet they are still being asked to cover a fair sized number. The Jets rank 1st overall in total defense, and they have allowed opponents to average just 187 yards passing per game. They went into Indianapolis in Week 2 and dismantled the Colts, winning by a score of 20-7. They picked off Andrew Luck three times in that game. Tom Brady certainly isn't expecting this game to be an easy one, and here is what he was saying during the week: "We've had a lot of close games with them over the years," he said. "A lot of situational football has come into play, a lot of two-minute drives and stopping them at the end, overtime games. Not too many games have really gotten out of hand." Nobody has been able to stop Brady this season, and the Jets will want to keep the ball out of his hands by holding possession with long clock killing drives handing off to Chris Ivory. The Jets star running back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season, and he's run for over 300 yards in his last two games. The Patriots defense hasn't had much success against the run, allowing opponents to average 114 yards per game. The weather could also be a factor here in Foxboro, as the weatherman is calling for a cold and windy day with a strong possibility of rain. That should play right into the hands of the Jets, who would be more than happy to grind it out in the trenches. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-15 |
Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 45 | Top | 26-44 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
|
10-24-15 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati UNDER 58 | Top | 13-37 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCONN@CIN to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Huskies versus the Bearcats in Cincinnati. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- The total for Saturday's game is far higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams.
- Cincinnati has played six straight unders versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Indiana v. Michigan State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 26-52 |
Loss | -106 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@MSU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Hoosiers versus the Spartans in East Lansing. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 60% chance of rain, with winds as high as 29 km/h. - Michigan State ranks 70th nationally rushing for an average of 156 yards per game. They rely heavily on Connor Cook's arm, which could be neutralized by the wind here today. - The Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 17-41 |
Loss | -109 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on OHIO@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Bobcats versus the Bulls in Buffalo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 34 km/h.
- The Under is 15-7-1 in Bobcats last 23 road games.
- The Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WISC@ILL to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Badgers versus the Illini in Champaigne Illinois. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- While there is just a 20% chance of rain, the forecast calls for high winds of up to 31 km/h.
- Wisconsin ranks 12th nationally in total defense, and has held opponents to an average of 10.9 points per game.
- The Badgers have played five straight unders, and Illinois has gone under in six of it's last seven home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Miami (OH) v. Western Michigan UNDER 56 | Top | 13-35 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on M-OH@WMU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Red Birds versus the Broncos in Kalamazoo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 31 km/h. - The Under is 30-13 in Redhawks last 43 games in October. - Miami-OH ranks 125th nationally in total offense. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Bowling Green v. Kent State UNDER 59 | Top | 48-0 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BGSU@KENT to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Falcons versus the Golden Flashes in Kent. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h. - Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson has thrown for 10 TDs the last two weeks, but that was at home. He had thrown just two TD passes in his last two road games. - The Under is 13-3-1 in Golden Flashes last 17 conference games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 49.5 | Top | 30-28 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NW@NEB to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Wildcats versus the Cornhuskers in Lincoln Nebraska. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The Wildcats have scored a grand total of 10 points in their last two games, and they rank outside the Top 100 in passing yards as well as points scored.
- Nebraska ranks in the Top 10 nationally in run defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground.
- The wind is likely to put a damper on the passing game, as the forecast calls for winds up to 24 km/h.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
Arizona State v. Utah UNDER 56 | Top | 18-34 |
Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on AZST@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Utes have done what no other team in the country have come anywhere close to doing, and that is beating Michigan. At the time it didn't seem very significant, but at this point it's a signature win that could put them in the playoff picture. They host conference rivals Arizona State on Saturday night, in a game that has revenge written all over it. The Utes lost last season at Arizona State by a score of 19-16 in overtime.
With windy and rainy conditions on the forecast for Saturday night in Salt Lake City, we could see another defensive battle here this time around. That would seem to play into the hands of the home team, who have one of the top running backs in the country. Devontae Booker ran for 222 yards and two TDs at home versus California last week.
Utah also picked off California's stud quarterback Jared Goff five times, giving them 12 interceptions total this season, tied for second in the country. The Sun Devils are 0-9 all time on the road versus Top 5 teams, and they've gone under in five of their last six overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 49.5 | | 17-39 |
Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on NO@PHI to go UNDER the total. The Saints finally picked up their first win of the season at home to Dallas last week, when Drew Brees found a wide open C.J. Spiller for a game winning touchdown in overtime. Brees has been taking a beating this season behind a banged up offensive line, and those issues are still a great concern heading into this game in Philly. He was sacked three times last week, and he was forced to sit out the previous week after suffering a shoulder injury.
The Eagles offense hasn't been able to get off the ground, and poor play on the offensive line has been largely to blame. Sam Bradford was sacked five times for a loss of 37 yards in the loss to the Redskins last week, and they were also backed up 72 yards by penalties.
This game features one of the highest totals on the board this week, and with both of these offenses decimated by injury, I am not sure where all the points are going to come from. Chip Kelly has been on the hot seat after a rough start, and his handling of DeMarco Murray has been one of the more prominent issues. Kelly is as stubborn as they come, but he might just be tempted to lean on the run this week, as New Orleans ranks among the worst in the league in run defense.
Establishing the run would also be a good idea for the Saints, who can't afford to have Drew Brees take any more unnecessary hits. Mark Ingram ran for 77 yards on 17 carries last week, and he and C.J. Spiller could get plenty of touches here on the road.
The Eagles haven't gone over the total yet this season, and yet bettors are still lining up to bet the over, resulting in an inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL
Jesse Schule |
10-08-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans UNDER 45 | | 27-20 |
Loss | -110 | 32 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on IND@HOU to go UNDER the total.
With or without Andrew Luck, the Colts are likely going to struggle in Houston on Thursday night. The Colts star quarterback has been terrorized by opponents this season, throwing more INTs (7) than touchdowns (5). He was unable to go at home versus the Jaguars, and Matt Hasselbeck threw for 282 yards and a TD in a 16-13 overtime win. Hasselbeck missed practice Tuesday due to illness, and it's still unclear if Luck can shake off a shoulder injury.
The Texans quarterback situation is no better, with Ryan Mallett completing just 12-of-27 passes for 150 yards and an INT in the loss to Atlanta last week. He is expected to start versus the Colts, despite his poor play so far this season. The Texans were hoping to have one of the best defenses in the NFL with stars like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, but they've struggled to stop the run.
Given the Colts quarterback situation, they might be better off looking to exploit the Texans poor run defense, that is allowing opponents to average over 115 yards per game. The Colts haven't had any success running the ball this season, but Frank Gore might their best option here in Houston.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive games, with seven of the last nine head to head meetings falling short of the total. The Colts won the most recent meeting by a score of 17-10 last December.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 43.5 | | 10-13 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET@SEA to go UNDER the total.
The Seahawks shutout Chicago 26-0 last week, and despite their 1-2 record, people still consider this team a legitimate contender. I wasn't impressed with the win over the Bears, as once again the offense was limited by poor play by the offensive line. The Bears sacked Russell Wilson four times, and the Seattle offense only scored one touchdown. They kicked four field goals, and Tyler Lockett had a 105 yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
The return of Kam Chancellor seemed to pay immediate dividends, as they held Jimmy Claussen to just 63 yards on 9-of-17 passing last week. The Lions have really struggled on offense during an 0-3 start, and they were held to just 28 rushing yards in a 24-12 home loss to Denver last week. Matthew Stafford has been picked off five times while throwing for five touchdowns in three straight losses.
The Lions have a history of playing low scoring games away from Ford Field, with 10 of their last 12 road games falling short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
Oakland Raiders v. Chicago Bears OVER 44 | Top | 20-22 |
Loss | -110 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@CHI to go OVER the total. The young Raiders have won two of their first three heading into Sunday's game in Chicago, and they will be a slight favorite in this one. The Bears were shutout in Seattle last week, and backup quarterback Jimmy Claussen threw for just 63 yards on 7-of-19 passing. After opening the season with three straight losses, it looks like the Bears are already thinking about a rebuild. They dealt veteran defenders Jon Bostic and Jared Allen this week, and that has people speculating about pending free agents Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery. I think it's only a matter of time before this Chicago team starts drawing comparisons to a heavy armored fighting vehicle carrying guns and moving on a continuous articulated metal track. In other words, their motivation to actually win games moving forward may be a little dubious. Oakland on the other hand has an exciting offense led by Derek Carr, who has passed for 726 yards with five TDs and just one INT during a 2-1 start. He has a talented young receiving corps with rookie Amari Cooper opposite Michael Crabtree. Latavius Murray ran for 139 yards and a TD in last weeks win over Cleveland, and he's averaging just under five yards per carry on the season. The defense is still a work in progress, allowing opponents to average an NFL worst 28.7 points on 414 yards per game. Their strength is a ferocious pass rush, and they sacked Josh McCown five times in Cleveland last week. That's bad news for Jimmy Claussen, as Bears quarterbacks haven't enjoyed much in the way of pass protection in recent seasons. The Bears have gone over in eight of their last nine versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 42 | Top | 27-14 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NYJ@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Jets have won two of three heading into this week's game in London, and their loss to the Eagles last week was a result of a combination of bad luck and poor execution on offense. They face a Miami team that is coming off back to back embarrassing losses. These teams are similar is style, as they both play a conservative style leaning on their defense. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with seven of the last nine in this series falling short of the total. Both these teams were terrible on offense last week, as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill each threw three picks. I'm expecting both teams to continue to struggle moving the ball here in England, and we should see another defensive battle at Wembley.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 53.5 | Top | 22-24 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ND@CLEM to go UNDER the total.
The Irish have managed to remain undefeated and stay ranked in the Top 10 despite losing their starting quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston. This will be their toughest test by far, and it won't be easy hanging with the Tigers at Death Valley.
After finishing first in the country in total defense in 2014, the Tigers are currently ranked 4th in yards allowed this season. Clemson has the advantage of additional rest coming off a Thursday night game last week at Louisville. The Tigers should be well rested and well prepared for this "must win" game for both teams. The winner will be a playoff contender, while the loser will likely drop out of the playoff picture.
The weather conditions could play a role in this game, as the forecast is for heavy rain and wind in Clemson on Saturday night. That will limit both teams in the passing game, forcing them to lean on the run.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 67.5 | | 28-22 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BGRN@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
The 2-2 Buffalo Bulls will be a big underdog at home to Bowling Green this Saturday, mostly because the Falcons quarterback leads the nation in passing with 1760 yards. Matt Johnson may not be able to air it out as often this week, with the weather forecast in Buffalo calling for heavy rain and wind during the game. The Falcons have won four straight versus Buffalo, but the last three of those game fell well short of the total. Neither of these two teams have played a lot of high scoring games in October, with the Falcons going under in 14 of 17, and the Bulls falling short of the number in seven of their last 10 in October.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
10-03-15 |
Texas Tech v. Baylor UNDER 89 | Top | 35-63 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TTU@BAY to go UNDER the total.
The bookmakers are expecting a shootout in Texas this Saturday, as the total in the Texas Tech versus Baylor game is said to be the highest in college football history. Both these teams play a fast pace offensive style, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. Each of the last five meetings have gone over the total, with both teams scoring a ridiculous amount of points. That has caused the bookmakers to open with a total of 85.5, which the public has already bet up significantly. The last time I saw a total with this much hype was when Baylor played Oklahoma State in December of 2012, and that game ended with Baylor winning 41-34 (well below the expected total).
In order for these teams to combine to score 90+ points, we need a lot of things to go right for both of these offenses. It doesn't take much to slow the pace down. It could be penalties, injuries, turnovers, and all of a sudden 10-15 minutes has gone by and there haven't been any points scored. The Red Raiders starting quarterback Pat Mahomes was injured in the loss to TCU, and he wore a brace on his knee while finishing that game. The injury limited his mobility, and the Red Raiders were forced into running the ball a little more than they usually do. The word on the street is that Mahomes will be able to play, but if he's not able to do everything he normally does, that has the potential to slow the pace of the Texas Tech offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49.5 | | 28-38 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on KC@GB to go UNDER the total.
We've seen the Packers put up some impressive point totals on Monday Night Football over the years, but I think the total in tonight's game looks a little too high. Green Bay isn't exactly at 100%, with Eddie Lacy banged up, and an offensive line that has struggled since Bryan Bulaga went down. Top receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season, and the Packers are facing a fierce Kansas City defense that has eight quarterback sacks in it's first two games.
Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to have too much time in the pocket with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali breathing down his neck. Rodgers struggled the last time he faced the Chiefs, completing just 17-of-35 pass attempts and taking four sacks in a 19-13 loss back in 2011.
The Chiefs are likely to focus on establishing the run with Jamaal Charles, burning up a lot of clock in the process. They've gone under in five of their last seven road games, and with wind and rain in the forecast at Lambeau tonight, expect that trend to continue.
I'll add a rather BOLD PREDICTION... Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception at home since 2012, but I think there's a strong chance that this streak ends here tonight as he faces heavy pressure from one of the league's best pass rushers.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. New England Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 17-51 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on JAX@NE to go OVER the total.
The Patriots offense is firing on all cylinders heading into Sunday's home game versus Jacksonville. The same can't be said for their defense, that has allowed opponents to average over 400 yards through their first two games. The Jags are coming into this game off a home win versus Miami, and Blake Bortles threw for 273 yards and a pair of TDs in that game.
Tom Brady leads the NFL with 754 yards and seven TDs through the first two games of the season, and he's likely to put up big numbers here at home against this Jags defense. The total for this game looks a little too low when you consider New England's history of running up the score at home. They've gone over the total in 35 of their last 51 home games.
The Jags will have their work cut out for them trying to slow Rob Gronkowski, who has 207 yards and four TDs so far. I don't like their chances of doing what Seattle failed to do in the Super Bowl, and what Buffalo failed to do at home last week.
With a lack of depth at the running back position, New England only attempted 15 running plays last week. We should expect more of the same this week, and leaning on the passing game should result in another high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Oakland Raiders v. Cleveland Browns OVER 41.5 | Top | 27-20 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Oakland Raiders flashed an impressive offense in a 36-33 home win over Baltimore last week, but it was the second week in a row they gave up 33 points. We see a low number here in Cleveland, and I am not convinced that either of these two defenses is going to be successful.
Derek Carr has some new weapons at wide receiver, and it payed off last week to the tune of 351 yards and three TDs. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper each went over 100 yards, with 16 catches between them. Latavius Murray provides enough of a running game to keep teams honest, and this Raiders offense appears to be the real deal.
Cleveland got a big game from Johnny Foobtall last week, but for some reason the Browns are choosing to go back to Josh McCown here on Sunday. The Browns should get their share of points facing an Oakland team that ranks dead last in total defense.
The Raiders have gone over in six straight versus opponents from the AFC, and in four of their last five on the road.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets UNDER 47 | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@NYJ to go UNDER the total.
The Eagles offense looked unstoppable in the pre-season, but they've had their wings clipped in the first two games of the regular season. It won't get any easier this week on the road in New York, facing the 2-0 Jets.
New York has terrorized opposing quarterbacks so far, picking off Andrew Luck three times on Monday night, and forcing an interception and four fumbles in Week 1 versus Cleveland. They are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.
That certainly doesn't bode well for the Eagles, who haven't been able to get anything going with their running game. Despite signing last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murrary in the off-season, the Eagles have run for an NFL worst 70 yards in the first two weeks. The offensive line has struggled, taking a ton of holding penalties and giving Sam Bradford very little time to get rid of the ball. Bradford has thrown four interceptions and just two TD passes during an 0-2 start.
Despite the fact that the Jets have been dominant on defense, we see a really high number in this game. I don't see Philly scoring enough points to push the total over here, and New York has a pretty conservative approach on offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 64 | Top | 56-30 |
Loss | -106 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCLA@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury. With Rosen struggling, expect UCLA to lean on it's running game, burning up the clock in the process. These teams only scored 10 points in the first half of last year's game, and I see no reason for a sky high total here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-21-15 |
NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46.5 | | 20-7 |
Loss | -105 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYJ@IND to go OVER the total.
While it's only Week 2, this game already feels like a must win for the Colts. They were embarrassed in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo last week, but I like their chances of getting the offense going here at home against the Jets. They are hoping to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton back, he was limited in practice on Saturday and is listed as a game time decision.
Both teams have some key injuries on defense, especially at corner. Antonio Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury, while the Colts secondary is really banged up. The Jets didn't score a lot of points last year, but they've got a different look on offense this year with Brandon Marshall, coming over from the Bears to play opposite Eric Decker. Ryan Fitzpatrick hooked up with both wideouts for TDs in a 31-10 win over Cleveland last Sunday.
The Jets ran for 154 yards in the win over the Browns, and the Colts run defense is likely to struggle again here tonight. Five of the last six head to head meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and tonight's number looks a little on the low side.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-10 |
Win | 100 | 86 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Cowboys needs a miraculous rally to beat the Giants at home in Week 1, but that game really should never have been as close as it was. The Dallas defense actually did a great job shutting down Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. Manning threw for just 193 yards with no scores on 20-of-36 passing. Beckham Jr. was held to five catches for 44 yards.
The Eagles came into this season with a hyped up offense that was supposed to score at will, but they managed just three points in the first half against the Falcons. Sam Bradford didn't look sharp overall, throwing a couple of picks and missing a couple of open targets that should have been easy touchdowns. DeMarco Murray was a non factor carrying the ball just eight times for a total of nine yards.
We see the total is sky high once again this week, despite the fact that the Eagles were grounded by the Falcons, and Dallas comes in to Philly without Dez Bryant. I expect to see both these teams try to establish the run in this divisional contest, and I don't think either defense is going to be giving up easy yards.
Philly's defense actually looked pretty good in Atlanta, picking off Matt Ryan twice, and holding the Falcons to 105 yards rushing on 35 carries (three yards per carry). The Cowboys have failed to go over the total in seven of their last nine overall, and none of those games saw a number as high as we see today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 47 | Top | 26-19 |
Loss | -108 | 156 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TB@NO to go OVER the total.
It came as no surprise to me that the Buccaneers were blown out at home in a 42-14 loss to Tennessee in Week 1. Here is what I said prior to the game: "If Bucs fans were hoping Jameis Winston would save the day, they are about to be sadly disappointed. I've never been a fan of Famous Jameis, who I think has always been overrated. They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS."
I expect the rookie to continue to struggle on the road in a hostile environment in New Orleans. He may have his moments though, as the Saints defense struggled in a Week 1 loss to Arizona, and they ranked among the worst in the NFL against the pass last season.
The Buccaneers defense made a rookie quarterback on a poor team look like a Hall of Famer last week, and this week they will face a legitimate Hall of Famer in Drew Brees. The Saints star quarterback led the league in passing yards last season, and he threw for 355 yards and a TD with one INT against a very strong Arizona defense on the road in Week 1.
He should be able to shred up this terrible Tampa secondary, and we should see a blowout in the Big Easy. The Saints have scored an average of 40 points in their last three home games versus Tampa.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
BYU v. UCLA UNDER 60 | Top | 23-24 |
Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.
The Bruins beat UNLV last week, but Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. They face a Cougars defense that has looked pretty solid during a 2-0 start, with a total of four INTs on opposing quarterbacks so far.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under, and the Bruins have trended under at a rate of 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Take UNDER,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Northwestern v. Duke UNDER 49 | Top | 19-10 |
Win | 100 | 93 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NW@DUKE to go UNDER the total.
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.
Rather than pick a side though, I think the better play is on the total. Neither team is prolific on offense, and both teams take pride in playing strong defense. They have played four times since 2002, and not one of those games came close to reaching the total here for today's game. The Wildcats have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight non-conference games, and seven straight in September. Duke has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
UNLV v. Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 7-28 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNLV@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines won big at home against Oregon State last week, and their defense continues to impress. I'm still a little hesitant to back this Michigan team as a big favorite though, as it's not going to be easy to run up the score without any serious threat in the passing game. Jake Ruddock didn't get into the endzone in the home opener, throwing for just 180 yards and an INT on 18-of-26 passing. He's now throwing twice as many picks (4) as TDs (2).
The Rebels are coming off a home loss to UCLA, but their defense gave the Bruins quarterbacks a bit of a tough time. Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. The Rebels chose to run the ball 43 times, picking up 181 yards but only managing a late field goal to avoid being shutout.
UNLV is likely at risk of being shutout again here in the Big House, where the Wolverines have seen the total go under in four straight. Michigan has also failed to reach the total in five straight non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-15 |
Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41.5 | | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 82 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DEN@KC to go OVER the total.
The Broncos are coming off a home win over the Ravens that didn't see much in the way of offense. This has people pretty down on Peyton Manning, who struggled at the end of last season and throughout the pre-season. I think it may be a little too early to count out one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game. To be fair, Denver jumped out to an early lead in that game, and they were never playing from behind.
Also, the Bronco's conservative approach came as no surprise to me, here is what I said prior to the game: "I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game."
The total in this game seems far to low considering the short turnaround off a late game on Sunday. Traditionally we have seen teams struggle to execute on defense with less time to prepare for an upcoming opponent.
The Chiefs offense showed flashes of greatness in the pre-season, and they executed well in a 27-20 win over the Texans in Houston in Week 1. Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-33 passing.
These teams have gone under in three of the last four head to head meetings, but the total was at least a touchdown higher in all four of those games. They scored 40+ points in all four of those games, and only once did they fail to score more than the listed total for tonight's game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-14-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 24-26 |
Loss | -110 | 677 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Falcons will host the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and we should expect plenty of scoring in this one. These two teams are both explosive on offense, but a little suspect on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense last season, and I don't like their chances of slowing down these Eagles here tonight.
Chip Kelly comes into this season with a new quarterback, and Sam Bradford looked great in the pre-season. He threw for 121 yards and three TDs on 10-of-10 passing in the Eagles Week 3 "dress rehearsal" game in Green Bay.
Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards and three TDs in the Falcons home opener against the Saints last year, winning by a score of 37-34. When Julio Jones is healthy, he's been impossible to stop. He's averaged more receiving yards per game than any other player in the NFL over the last two seasons. We can expect Jones to have a big day here against a Philly defense that struggled against the pass last season. Philly ranked 31st in the league against the pass, only Atlanta ranked worse.
The Eagles have seen the total go over in four of their last five road games, and I expect that trend to continue here in the dome in Atlanta tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5 | Top | 13-19 |
Win | 100 | 171 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAL@DEN to go UNDER the total.
The Broncos will begin the season at home against Baltimore, and I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season.
"It's going to be a work in progress through the year, too," vice president of football operations John Elway said. "We're not going to be kicking on all cylinders. We'd like to, but it's still going to be a work in progress with this offense and people are going to continue to get more and more comfortable with it, even after we start the regular season."
The Ravens have a revamped secondary with a healthy Jimmy Smith and newly acquired Kyle Arrington at the corners. "I think we're going to be a pretty darn good football team," Harbaugh told the Ravens' official website. "We're excited about where we're at, and I can't wait to see what we do when the games are for real."
While these teams have gone over the total in four straight meetings, the number in this game is higher than it was in any of those contests.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Houston Texans UNDER 41 | Top | 27-20 |
Loss | -105 | 577 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KC@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Chiefs begin the season on the road in Houston, and I am expecting both these teams to dominate defensively. Kansas City has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six road games, and the Texans have seen the total go under in five of their last seven overall.
Both J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are healthy and ready to go for Houston, and that's not good news for a Chiefs team that failed to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver last season. The good news for Kansas City fans is that they have Jamaal Charles (self proclaimed LeBron James of football). Houston's defense ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL against the run last season, and that was without Clowney. They could be even tougher this season, and as bad as they look offensively they will have to be.
The Texans quarterback situation has been an absolute nightmare in recent seasons, and it's tough to believe that Brian Hoyer is going to be the answer. He completed just 55% of his passes, throwing for a dozen TDs and 13 picks with the Browns last season. Arian Foster won't play, leaving him without a safety net in the backfield. Alfred Blue didn't inspire much confidence filling in for Foster last year, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and totaling just two TDs.
The Under is 42-19-1 in Chiefs last 62 games on grass.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Boise State v. BYU UNDER 55 | Top | 24-35 |
Loss | -110 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BSU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
It was a bitter-sweet beginning to the season for the Cougars, who upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass, but lost start quarterback Taysom Hill for the rest of the season. The Cougars host Boise State on Saturday night, and the Broncos looked rather lackluster in a home win over the Washington Huskies.
New quarterback Ryan Finley looked pretty shaky, completing 16-of-26 passes for 129 yards and an interception. The defense did all the heavy lifting though, limiting the Huskies to just 179 total yards.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive battles, and prior to last year's meeting they had gone under in the previous three meetings dating back to 2004. One of those games was the most epic defensive battle I have every seen in college football, when the Broncos won 7-6 on the Blue Turf in 2012.
Tanner Mangum was the hero for BYU last week, throwing for 111 yards and a TD on 7-of-11 passing. He threw a 42 yard strike to Mitch Matthews with one second left on the clock giving the Cougars the win. The freshman has his work cut out for him here this week against a stout Boise State defense, and the Cougars are surely going to miss Taysom Hill.
These teams scored a ton of points in last year's meeting, but both teams have since had to replace their quarterbacks as well as their leading rusher. With both offenses missing that firepower, I think we'll see a far more defensive battle this time around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oregon State v. Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 7-35 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORST@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Houston v. Louisville UNDER 54 | Top | 34-31 |
Loss | -110 | 105 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@LOU to go UNDER the total.
Louisville lost 31-24 to Auburn in Week 1, but came away from that game with plenty of positives. They picked off Tigers quarterback Jeremy Johnson three times, limiting him to 131 yards on 11-of-21 passing. Their own offense didn't impress much though, with Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combining to throw for just 167 yards on 17-of-33 passing.
The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-13 home win for the Cardinals, and I expect a similar result here this time around. Houston has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 games versus a team with a losing record, and seven of it's last nine games in September.
The Cardinals have trended under at home at a rate of 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games. I don't think Houston is going to have much success here in Louisville, and I think these teams will struggled to score a combined 50 points. With a total in the mid fifties, I think the boomakers have made a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah OVER 44 | | 14-24 |
Loss | -106 | 90 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on USU@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Utes won a defensive battle at home against Michigan in Week 1 by a score of 24-17. The bookmakers are calling for another low scoring battle here on Friday night against rivals Utah State, but I think the number here is a little too low.
Since 2008 these teams have met four times, and the Utes have won three of those four games. The total in all of those games was set at 50 or higher, and three of those four games went over. The exception was a 27-20 Aggies win in 2012, which is still more points than the total for this game.
Chuckie Keeton did not look sharp at quarterback for the Aggies last week, throwing for just 110 yards and an INT on 16-of-33 passing. He threw for 314 yards and a pair of TDs against Utah the last time these teams met. He also ran the ball for 85 yards and a TD .
The total has gone over in five of the last six meetings in this series, and I'll take a stab at the over with an extremely low total here in this game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots UNDER 52 | | 21-28 |
Win | 100 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on PIT@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are defending Super Bowl champions, and they open the 2015 season at home versus Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady has won his appeal against the NFL, and his suspension was overturned, allowing him to start here in Week 1. So everything is fine and dandy in New England? Well .. not exactly. Tom Brady has had a rough pre-season, on and off the field. Let's not worry about his personal life, and all the rumors regarding his marriage, and just focus on the fact that he didn't play very well at all in limited action in three pre-season games. Then you take a look at New England's offense without Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount, and possibly Julian Edelman, it would be no surprise to see the 38 year old struggle here in Week 1. The Steelers aren't anywhere near full strength either, with Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant serving suspensions, and starting center Maurkice Pouncey sidlined with a broken ankle. Unlike New England though, they have decent backups at running back with Dri Archer and DeAngelo Williams. They also have more depth at wide receiver, with Markus Wheaton and Antonio Brown. I think Pittsburgh's offense will be good enough to keep this game close, not good enough to run up the score. Take UNDER . GL, Jesse Schule |
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 53 | | 42-24 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on OSU@VT to go UNDER the total. The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight. Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Texas v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 | Top | 3-38 |
Win | 100 | 392 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEX@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74.5 | Top | 56-21 |
Loss | -110 | 84 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAY@SMU to go UNDER the total.
The Baylor Bears have scored more points than any other team in the country over the last two seasons, and that's why we see such a big number here tonight against an inferior opponent. There's no question that this is going to be a blowout, but I think that the bookmakers are being a little too optimistic about just how many points these teams can score in their season opener.
These two teams met in Week 1 last season, and the Bears shutout SMU winning 45-0. That was in Waco, and this time they will travel to Dallas. I don't expect the Mustangs to have much success scoring on Baylor's defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bear's offense show signs of rust with a new starting quarterback here in Week 1.
These teams have played each other 10 times since 1990, and Baylor has won every time. All but one of those games were blowouts, but only once did they combine to score more than 75 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
02-01-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 24-28 |
Win | 100 | 318 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER for Super Bowl XLIX. It seems that the overwhelming majority of the pundits expect this game to be close. ESPN's writers and radio hosts released their Super Bowl picks today, and of 40 predicted scores, only three people predicted a margin of victory greater than a TD. I think it might be wishful thinking to expect such a close game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this game turn into a blowout. If Seattle's #1 ranked defense shuts down the Patriots, we should see a low scoring game right? Well not necessarily.. just look at what happened last year against the Broncos, or in each of their two previous playoff games. If the Seahawks defense isn't able to stop Brady, then the Patriots are likely to run away with this game. The addition of LeGarrette Blount gives the Pats another deadly weapon on offense, making them that much harder to stop. These teams have met three times over the last 10 years, and all three of those games saw the total go over. Seattle has seen the total go over in nine of it's last 12 playoff games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-18-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 54 | Top | 7-45 |
Win | 100 | 79 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@NE to go Under the total. The Patriots host the Colts in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, and we see a high total in a game that is expected to be a shootout. The Colts though have allowed an average of just 11.5 points in back to back playoff wins. Last week's upset win at Denver was their sixth straight game that went under the total. The Patriots needed to rally to come from behind and beat the Ravens last week, winning by a score of 35-31. I expect to see a much better effort from the Pats this week, against a Colts team that they have owned in recent seasons. New England has won five straight in this series, covering the points in each of the last three. We saw the Patriots lean heavily on the running game when these teams met in last year's playoffs. LaGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four TDs in that game, and he's back in New England after playing for Pittsburgh for most of the season. Between these two teams they've seen just two of their last 13 games go over the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-11-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos UNDER 54 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@DEN to go UNDER the total. Peyton Manning has thrown twice as many INTS (6) as he has TDs (3) over his last three starts. Denver though has won three of those games, including the season finale against Oakland. It appears that the Broncos have got their running game going in time for the playoffs, and we can expect them to lean heavily on the run here on Sunday. The Colts didn't impress at home against Bengals last week, and a similar effort here against the Broncos won't get it done. Watching the game, one thing that stood out to me was just how balls were dropped by the Indy receivers. This is a not a new issue for the Colts, as they led the league in drops during the regular season. Denver's defense is healthier than it has been for most of the season, and I expect them to make life very tough for Andrew Luck. The Broncos have forced 13 turnovers while winning five of their last six games, and they finished 8-0 at home outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points in those games. These teams met in Week 1, and Denver took a 17 point lead into the locker room at the half. We could see a more conservative approach here in the playoffs, and I think these teams will have trouble scoring enough points to push the total over. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-11-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 53 | Top | 21-26 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@GB to go UNDER the total. The Cowboys will play the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, despite the fact that many feel they didn't deserve to beat the Lions last week. The Cowboys come from behind victory was aided by bad calls, non calls, and reversed calls that allowed them to erase a 14 point deficit. It wasn't pretty for the Cowboys, as Tony Romo was sacked a season high six times, Dex Bryant was held to three catches for 48 yards and DeMarco Murray ran for just 75 yards on 19 carries. Now they face a Packers team that boasts an undefeated 8-0 home record, and the forecast is calling for freezing cold temperatures with wind and snow. Dallas is surely going to try to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands by running the ball and burning up the clock. The Cowboys have seen the total go under in four of their last five playoff games, and the number for this game looks a little high. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-10-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 | | 31-35 |
Loss | -110 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Under. The Pats have a record of 12-3 over their last 15 home playoff games, but two of those three losses came to Baltimore. I don't think that past success should provide any comfort to Ravens fans though, as they have a daunting task ahead of them at Foxboro this Saturday. New England's defense is vastly improved since losing to Baltimore in January of 2013. They were undefeated at home this season prior to losing their season finale to Buffalo, with Tom Brady on the bench in the second half of a meaningless game. The Ravens were rather fortunate to have upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, as they were out-gained 387-299 in total yards. The Steelers turned the ball over three times, including a pair of INTs thrown by Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens secondary has struggled for the most part this season, and even last week Ben Roethlisberger 334 yards on 31-of-45 passing. The Weather is expected to be a factor in this game, with a bitter cold snap sweeping the country. The forecast is calling for subzero temperatures as well as wind. This could force both teams to lean more on the run, and keep the score down. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-04-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 20-24 |
Loss | -110 | 123 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET@DAL to go OVER the total.
The Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a reputation as a guy who doesn’t perform well on the road, but last week he threw for 217 yards and three TDs in a snow storm at Green Bay. He has a far more favorable matchup against Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys defense is their Achilles Heel, but they’ve been so successful running the ball that they’ve been able to keep their defense off the field. That could prove more challenging against the NFL’s #1 ranked run defense, and #2 ranked overall defense. I expect Stafford and the Lions to have plenty of opportunities on offense this week.
Tony Romo has emerged as an MVP candidate, and it seems that everyone has forgotten all the big game meltdowns in past seasons. He's going to have his work cut out for him this week, up against Ndamukong Suh and a Lions defense that had 20 INTs during the season (3rd in the NFL).
Megatron has had an off year, but he’s still the best receiver in the league, and he appears to be reasonably healthy heading into this Wild Card game. This looks like a favorable matchup, as Dallas has really struggled against the pass (26h in the NFL). We saw DeSean Jackson burn the Cowboys secondary for an 80 yard strike last week.
I think the Lions will find enough holes in this shaky Dallas defense to keep this game close. These teams have seen the total sail over the number in five straight meetings.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-04-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 49.5 | Top | 10-26 |
Win | 100 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CIN@IND to go UNDER the total. The Cincinnati Bengals come limping into Indianapolis without their two best receivers, and a starting quarterback that has thrown more than his fair share of interceptions in recent weeks. Dalton was picked off twice in the loss to the Steelers last week, and A.J. Green suffered a concussion that will keep him out of today's game versus the Colts.TE Jermaine Gresham is also banged up with a sore back, and several players are recovering from a flu bug that forced the team to wear masks on their flight to Pittsburgh last week.
The Bengals were shutout in a 27-0 loss at Indianapolis in October, and Andy Dalton was brutal in that game. He threw for just 126 yards on 18-of-38 passing.
The Colts closed out the season with a win at Tennessee, and their defense limited the Titans to just 192 total yards. The Bengals have seen the total fall short of the number in six straight road games, and four straight visits to Indianapolis.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
01-03-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-17 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAL@PIT to go OVER the total.
The last time Big Ben saw the Ravens defense, he lit them up for 340 yards and six TDs in a 43-23 home win. The Ravens are back in Steel Town, and I am not sure they'll be able to do anything to slow this high octane offense this time around. Baltimore's defense did not perform well against the pass, ranking 23rd in the NFL, allowing an average of 248 yards per game. In a loss to the Texans in Week 16, the Ravens only managed 213 yards of total offense. Joe Flacco should be able to put up bigger numbers against the Steelers, who's pass defense ranks even worse than Baltimore's. The Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-03-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 38 | Top | 16-27 |
Loss | -105 | 99 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 5* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total. The Carolina Panthers get a home game in the playoffs even though they finished with a losing record during the regular season. Carolina comes in hot, winning their final four games. They are asked to cover quite a few points here against the Cardinals, and I think it's not very realistic to expect them to blowout a team with an elite defense. Only one of the Panthers seven wins this year came against a team with a winning record, and their last two home wins came in games decided by four points or less (to Tampa and Cleveland). The Cardinals were in line to finish first in the NFC West until they lost both their starting QB Carson Palmer, and backup Drew Stanton. Nobody seems to have much faith in third stringer Ryan Lindley, who threw for 316 yards and a pair of TDs last week in a 20-17 loss to San Francisco. What I find the most interesting about this matchup, is the Cardinals defense versus a run happy Carolina offense. The Panthers have found a lot of running room against weak opposition in the NFC South, but things might be a lot tougher here on Saturday. With bad weather expected on game day, this could be a game won in the trenches.The Under is 19-7 in Panthers last 26 games on grass. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-15-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears OVER 53.5 | Top | 31-15 |
Loss | -115 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NO@CHI to go OVER the total.
The New Orleans Saints have not been able to find any consistency, and just a week after upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they lost at home to Carolina by a score of 41-10. The good news for the Saints is, they are playing a Chicago team that has been consistently terrible, and the playoffs are still within reach.
The Bears are coming off a 41-28 loss to the Cowboys, and only the Atlanta Falcons rank worse in pass defense. Drew Brees will try to cut into a Bears secondary that has allowed an average of 265.5 yards passing per game. The Saints defense ranks just ahead of Chicago allowing 265.2 yards passing per game, but New Orleans has been even worse against the run.
These teams have seen the total go over in five of the last six meetings in Chicago, and the Saints have been a good bet to go over all year, with 10 of their 13 games going over the number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-14-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 37.5 | Top | 7-17 |
Loss | -111 | 110 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF@SEA to go OVER the total.
The Seahawks will host the Niners in Seattle this Sunday, but this matchup doesn't come with as much hype as it had in previous seasons. These two teams were expected to be battling for first place in the NFC West, but San Francisco is now in danger of missing the playoffs all together.
The Seahawks however have turned things around after a rough start, and they have their destiny in their own hands. If Seattle wins it's final three games, it will clinch another division title. The Hawks have won three straight, and one of those games was a 19-3 victory at San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick was sacked four times, throwing a pair of interceptions and completing just 16-of-29 pass attempts for 121 yards.
He's not going to find it any easier this week, as he has really struggled in previous trips to the Pacific Northwest. The Niners have been blown out in Seattle in each of the last two seasons, and Kaepernick has thrown four picks and just one TD in those games.
The last four meetings between these two teams have seen the total go under, and Seattle has won three of those games. The total for today's game is much lower than it was in any of those previous contests, and this 49ers team is not nearly as good as it was in previous seasons.
Seattle should be able to run up the score a little on this beat up defense of San Francisco, as injuries have been piling up for the Niners.
Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-07-14 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-14 |
Win | 100 | 52 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the SEA@PHI to go UNDER thre total. Seattle is putting the rest of the league on notice.. The Legion of Boom is back! The Seahawks are coming off consecutve dominant victories, allowing a total of six points in those games. It's no coincidence that they've recently got a few key players back on defense, and they are starting to look as dominant as they did last year. The Eagles are still undefeated at home, and they've won 10 in row in Philly dating back to last season. Before you get too exited about the home field advantage, consider that they lost 10 straight home games between 2012 and the middle of last season. I expect Mark Sanchez and the Eagles offense to have trouble taking flight tonight, and Seattle is likely to pound away with the running game. While the Eagles have piled on the points against inferior opponents, they've seen the total go under in five of the last six versus teams with a winning record. The total in today's game appears to far too high.
Take UNDER. GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Missouri v. Alabama OVER 48.5 | Top | 13-42 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIZZ@BAMA to go OVER the total.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a wild 55-44 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and they are heavily favored in the SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Missouri has won six straight, and the Tigers defense is ranked 13th in the nation with opponent's averaging under 20 points per game. They've struggled against elite running backs though, allowing Toledo's Kareem Hunt to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 2, Indiana's Tevin Coleman to run for 132 yards and a TD in Week 4, and Georgia's Nick Chubb to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 6.
Alabama's T.J. Yeldon ran for 127 yards and a pair of TDs in the Iron Bowl, and I expect him to have a big game here in Atlanta. Success running the ball should open things up for Blake Sims and Amari Cooper in the passing game.
Before you get too impressed with Missouri's six game win streak and it's 10-2 record, let's look at their schedule. Only one of their 12 opponents is currently ranked in the Top 25, and was a 34-0 home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. They also lost at home to unranked Indiana, an embarrassing defeat for an SEC team.
I'm expecting Alabama to pile on the points here, and the over is 10-1-1 in the Tide's last 12 neutral site games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-01-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-13 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 2* play MIA@NYJ to go OVER the total.
The Jets put an end to their ugly eight game losing streak with a 20-13 home win over the Steelers before the bye week, but then followed that up with another one-sided loss to Buffalo last Monday night. They are back home tonight to host the Dolphins, and they might be catching The Fish at a good time.
The Dolphins are coming off a tough loss in Denver, with Peyton Manning lighting them up for 257 yards and four TDs. This team ranks among the best in the league against the pass, but key injuries in the secondary could leave them a lot more vulnerable to big plays. They also struggled against the run in Denver, allowing the Broncos to pick up over 200 yards rushing.
I bet against the Dolphins two weeks ago when they hosted the Bills, and Miami ended up getting quite lucky in that game. They trailed at the half, before rallying in the third quarter, aided by a couple of very controversial penalties that went against Buffalo.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, and because of that we see a really low total tonight. The Jets though have played five straight overs at home against teams with a winning record, and I don't see either of these defenses playing particularly well tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-14 |
Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 62.5 | Top | 35-42 |
Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARZST@ARIZ to go UNDER the total.
The Wildcats host the Sun Devils in Tuscon on Friday, and both teams are tied with a 9-2 record. This is a huge game for both teams, who are gunning for first in the Pac-12 South, along with UCLA who is also sitting at 9-2. Arizona's defense has been impressive lately, allowing an average of just 18 points over their last four games.
They might need the defense to come up big if starting QB Anu Solomon is unable to go, he left lat week's game with a foot injury and has since been seen wearing a walking boot. The Wildcats opted to lean on the run with backup Jesse Scroggins in the game, as he only attempted five passes, completing three of those four 64 yards.
Nick Wilson ran for 218 yards and three TDs against a strong Utah defense last week, and I see no reason why they wouldn't continue to feed the hot hand.
While both teams are capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, I find that in big divisional battles like this, often it's the defenses that shine. Public money appears to be on the over, but there are some long standing trends that point toward a low scoring game. The Wildcats have only seen the total go over in two of their last 10 home games, and going back further reveals that 20 of their last 27 home games versus teams with a winning record have gone under the total. All things considered, this number looks a little high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | Top | 17-34 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CHI@DET to go OVER the total. The Lions defense has played very well this season, and they have been particularly tough against the run. Their secondary could be tested against this high flying Bears passing attack though, and they were lit up by Tom Brady last week in New England. Brady three for 349 yards and a pair of TDs, and the Patriots piled on 34 points.
The Bears defense hasn't impressed much though, and they've given up over 100 points in their last two road games. Chicago ranks 28th in the league allowing over 260 passing yards per game, and they face the league's best receiver in Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving day.
These two teams combined to score 72 points in last year's meeting at Ford Field, and 50 points the previous season at Detroit. Four of the last five meetings in Detroit have gone over, and the Bears have played five straight overs versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints OVER 50.5 | Top | 34-27 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 5* play on BAL@NO to go OVER the total. Over the last few seasons, the question was not if the Saints would win at home, but by how great a margin would the win by? Their air of invincibility at the Superdome has taken a big hit though, coming off consecutive losses to the 49ers and Bengals. They will try to avoid a third straight defeat as they host the Ravens tonight, and the Ravens might be just the right opponent.
I don't think this Ravens team is nearly as good as it's record indicates. Lets take a look at where their wins have come from.. they beat the Titans, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs and Browns, leaving them with just one win against a team with a winning record (Pittsburgh).
The Steelers avenged that loss a couple of weeks ago, as Big Ben lit up the Ravens secondary for 340 yards and six TDs. They could be in for another long night facing Drew Breese at the Superdome.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, and 27 of those came at home. The Ravens have seen the total go over in five of their last six road games, losing four of those.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 53.5 | Top | 13-37 |
Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OSU@WASH to go UNDER the total.
The Huskies host Oregon State Saturday night, and the Beavers are a dangerous team right now. They ended a four game losing skid with an upset win over Arizona State last week, and need just one more win to become bowl eligible. They will likely need to get that win here in Washington, because their final game comes at home against Oregon.
It's not going to be easy against a Washington defense that plays particularly well at home. The Huskies limited Stanford to 20 points, and held the Sun Devils to 24 in home losses. Washington has also taken three of the last four meetings, but the key trend here is that the total has gone under in five of the last six meetings at Husky Stadium.
The Weather is also a potential factor that could slow down both teams on offense, with rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
USC v. UCLA UNDER 61 | Top | 20-38 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Trojans will take on the Bruins in Pasadena, and this is a game with plenty at stake. Both teams are trying to win the Pac-12 South, and earn a shot at playing in the Conference Championship game. Both these teams have a load of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and I expect this game to be a tight one.
That's certainly been the case when these two teams have played each other over the past decade, with seven of the last eight head to head meetings going under. Only one of those eight games saw a total as high as 60, and tonight's game has a total that's sky high. That hasn't stopped the public from betting on the over, and I think were getting great value, with a number that appears to be rather inflated.
The news that USC has reinstated star DB Josh Shaw certainly won't hurt the Trojans defense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | Top | 31-28 |
Loss | -106 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOU@ND to go UNDER the toal.
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College.
The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei.
The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much.
The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game.
The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like the chances of failing to reach a total over 50.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-20-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders OVER 42 | Top | 20-24 |
Win | 100 | 44 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on KC@OAK to go OVER the total.
We saw the Chiefs grind out another win over the Seahawks on Sunday, and it was an "old school" gritty down and dirty game dominated be defense and smash-mouth football. Still they scored a combined 44 points, going over the listed number. Tonight's total is even lower, and I think we should see enough offense from both teams to cash a ticket with the over.
The Chiefs are a big favorite on the road, and that makes plenty of sense given Oakland's 0-10 record. History tells us though that no matter how bad a team is, they eventually manage to get a win somewhere throughout the season. The Raiders have come close on numerous occasions, and they even put up 24 points on the road at Seattle earlier this month.
I think it's going to be tough for the Chiefs to come out on a short week on the road, with the same intensity as they normally bring on Sundays. They have a big game against Denver looming large, and they could get caught overlooking the Raiders here.
Oakland has seen the total go over in four of it's last five home games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-17-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 46 | Top | 27-24 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on PIT@TEN to go UNDER the total.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a classic example of a Jekyll & Hyde team this year. Their offense has looked unstoppable at times, but they've also lost to the Jets, Bucs and Browns. They've certainly been better at home than they have been on the road, and that's good news for Titans fans.Tennessee continues to struggle, losing last week by a score of 21-7 at Baltimore. After winning at Kansas City in Week 1, the Titans have lost seven of eight since. Six of those games have failed to reach the listed total.
Ben Roethlisberger was coming off back to back games with six TDs, but then last week in New York he threw for 343 yards and just one TD with a pair of INTS in a loss to the Jets.
That poor performance was not an isolated incident, he's struggled on the road all year. He has a total of 23 TD passes this year, but only five of those have come on the road.
He likely won't have to be spectacular against the Titans though, as Tennessee has been one of the league's worst at stopping the run. Pittsburgh should be coming into this game with the intention of handing off to Bell and Blount early and often. As they concentrate on their ground game, the clock will be ticking.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 59 | Top | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOL@NIU to go UNDER the total.
Last week I bet the under when the Huskies played Ball State. Here is what I had to say prior to kickoff: "The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch. Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan."
The Huskies host Toledo tonight, and weather conditions at Huskie Stadium are expected to be cold with heavy rain and wind. This should force both teams to lean heavily on the run, and that should help keep it a low scoring game. Toledo could be without it's starting quarterback who is dealing with a leg injury.
Only one of the last five meetings in Illinois have gone over the total, and given the conditions, we should expect another low scoring affair here.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 63 | Top | 35-21 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NIU@BALL to go UNDER the total.
The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch.
Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan.
Ball State is also adjusting to life after a prolific QB, as they lost Keith Wenning to the NFL draft. Sophomore Jack Milas threw for 225 yards on 18-of-36 passing for no TDs and no INTS in a 35-21 win over Akron in his last start.
The home team has seen the total go under in nine of it's last 13 when coming off a bye week, while the Huskies have failed to go over the total in all but on of their last five versus a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-04-14 |
Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58 | Top | 27-10 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BG@AKR to go Under the total.
The Zips are coming off back to back losses on the road, but they return home to host Bowling Green on Tuesday night. They have won 3-of-4 at home, and the only loss was to undefeated Marshall. Their defense limited opponents to a total of just 25 points in those three victories, and they rank 22nd overall in the nation allowing just over 20 points per game.
Starting QB Kyle Pohl has missed the last two games, and his status for tonight's game remains unclear as he recovers from a concussion. The Falcons lost their starting quarterback in Week 1, and backup James Knapke has thrown almost as many picks (9) as TDs (10).
The Falcons have won five straight in this series, and each of the last two seasons the games have been low scoring, failing to go over 45 total points. Tonight's total is actually higher than it was in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
With two struggling offenses playing each other, I can't see these teams putting up a lot of points. Weather is also likely to play a role, as conditions at Akron appear to be less than optimal. The forecast is calling for 50% chance of rain with winds at 29 KM/H.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-03-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants OVER 50 | Top | 40-24 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on IND@NYG to go OVER the total.
The Colts defense looked pretty good during a five game winning streak, but three of those five games were at home, and the others were at Jacksonville and Houston. Their resume on the road this season isn't so impressive, going 2-2 and allowing an average of 33 points in those four games. The good news for Andrew Luck and the Colts is that New York might be a friendly place to visit with the way the Giants have been playing. New York's defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the pass as well as the run, and it's going to be a tough challenge trying to slow down Andrew Luck. The Colts QB leads the NFL with 2731 passing yards, and he threw for 400 yards and three TDs in a losing effort last week. The Colts have seen the total go over in five straight road games, and three of the previous four meetings between these two teams have also gone over the number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-02-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 23-43 |
Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on BAL@PIT to go OVER the total. Prior to last week's game against the Colts, I said this about the Steelers: "The Steelers on the other hand were trailing 13-0 in the second quarter against the Texans on Monday, but scored 24 points in less than three minutes to take a 24-13 lead into the half." "There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about this Pittsburgh team, as they aren't going to be handed 24 points every week. We've already seen them lose at home to the Bucs, and the Cleveland Browns scored 58 points in their two games against this Steelers defense." I guess it doesn't matter how bad your defense is when Big Ben throws for 500+ yards and six TDs. They spanked the Colts, but previously their wins came against the likes of the Browns, Panthers, Jaguars and Texans, not one of those teams has a winning record. All four of the Steelers home games have gone over the total this year, while the Ravens have seen the total go over the number in six of seven on the road versus teams with a winning record. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-24-14 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 58 | Top | 30-55 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
Last week the Cougars played three solid quarters of football against Nevada, but suffered a complete collapse in the fourth. The Wolfpack rallied for 22 points, winning by a score of 42-35. It was their third straight loss since losing star QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg. The Cougars are expected to get Jamaal Williams back from an ankle injury, and that should be a boost to their running game.
BYU will be on the road at Boise State Friday night, and these two teams have a history of playing closely contested games. Each of the last three meetings have gone under the total, and the last time they played on the Blue Turf, Boise State won 7-6 in September of 2012.
Neither team is as good defensively as they were back in 2012, but the total for tonight's game is much higher than it was then. BYU hasn't gone over the total in any of it's three road games this year, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Going back even further, they've seen eight of their last 11 road games go under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-23-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos OVER 51 | Top | 21-35 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on SD@DEN to go OVER the total.
The Broncos will be looking to avenge a home loss to San Diego in a Thursday night game in Denver last December. The way Peyton Manning has been playing, it's no surprise that most of the money is on the Broncos here. The line opened at -6.5, but closer to game time we see a number of -8.5 at most books.
I think the better bet tonight is on the total, as I expect both these to be airing it out with their passing game. Denver only runs the ball enough to keep opponents honest, while the Chargers might not have a choice. San Diego is without Ryan Matthews and Donald Brown, leaving them with third stringer Branden Oliver. The rookie has had some success, but he might find it tough sledding against Denver's 3rd ranked run defense.
The last three meetings between these two teams have all fallen short of the total. Tonight's total though is at least five points lower than it was in any of those games. The Broncos offense has put up at awful lot of points against some top defenses, scoring 40+ against Arizona an San Francisco in their last two home games.
Denver has seen the total go over in 11 of it's last 13 home games versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-16-14 |
NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 45 | Top | 25-27 |
Loss | -115 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYJ@NE to go UNDER the total.
The Patriots host the Jets on Thursday Night Football, and most would expect this game to be a blowout. A few key injuries for the home team, combined with a forecast calling for wet and windy weather might slow down these offenses though.
The Pats lost their leading rusher Stevan Ridley to a season ending knee injury in the win over Buffalo last week. The defense was really impressive in Buffalo, sacking Bills QB Kyle Orton five times and forcing three turnovers.
It's hard to imagine that Geno Smith and the Jets will have any success offensively here against the Patriots. You get bet that Darelle Revis is going to want to stick it to his former coach, and Smith would be a man man if he attempts any passes in his direction.
New England ranks third overall against the pass, allowing opponents to average just over 200 yards passing per game. We could see both teams forced to run if the rain and wind arrives as forecasted.
We've seen a lot of high scoring games on TNF this season, but I am going to buck that trend here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-09-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-28 |
Loss | -100 | 86 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@HOU to go UNDER the total. We've seen a trend of high scoring games on Thursday nights, but I think that trend will come to an end tonight in Houston. The Colts offense couldn't protect the football on Sunday, committing four turnovers against the Ravens. Their defense got the job done though in a 20-13 win over Baltimore. The Texans offense continued struggle in Dallas, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 154 yards and an INT. He's thrown six picks and just two TDs in his last three starts, and he and Andrew Luck share the league lead with six interceptions. Luck was picked off twice last week against the Ravens, and it won't get any easier here in Houston. He's faced the Texans four times in his career, completing just 50% of his passes while averaging just over 200 yards per game. The public has been betting heavily on the over here, driving the number up a few points after opening at 45. These teams have seen the total fall short of the number in six of the last seven head to head meetings, and the only exception was a stunning second half comeback by the Colts here in Houston last year. The Texans have also played five straight unders coming off a loss in their last game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
St Louis Rams v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 28-34 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STL@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Philadelphia Eagles are known to have one of the NFL's most prolific offenses, but Chip Kelly's team didn't do a lot offensively last week in San Francisco. In fact all of the Eagles points came via the defense and special teams, with the offense failing to put a single point on the board.
LeSean McCoy led the league in rushing in 2013, but he's going backwards so far this year. He's run for a total of just 192 yards with one TD, and he's average fewer than three yards per carry. Injuries to the offensive line have not helped matters, and a failure to protect the quarterback has also taken it's toll on Nick Foles.
The Rams will try to take advantage of a banged up Eagles team today, and I expect a healthy dose of Zac Stacy. Philly is allowing opponents to average over 130 yards per game on the ground, and that doesn't bode well for the Eagles today.
The Rams have played four straight unders on the road, and four of the last five meetings between these two teams have fallen below the number. The only game that went over the total saw a combined 46 points, not quite enough to reach today's total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
LSU v. Auburn UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-41 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LSU@AUB to go UNDER the total.
Two weeks after being shocked by Mississippi State in a 34-29 loss, the Tigers head out on the road to face last year’s SEC champions Auburn. LSU will start freshman QB Brandon Harris this week, and he’s been impressive in limited action so far. Harris has completed 73% of his passes and thrown six TDs and just one pick. “Harris has some ad-lib to his game which is very, very positive,” Miles said. “He is really fast and can really throw the ball. He can extend a play so really good things can happen.” LSU defeated Auburn by a score 35-21 at Baton Rouge last year, and it’s won six of the last seven meetings outright. The lone loss came by a score of 24-17 at Auburn in 2010, and the bookmakers are giving LSU more than a TD to work with here on the road this week. Auburn’s offense has sputtered the last two weeks, sneaking away with a victory in a close game at Kansas State, and failing to cover at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last Saturday. It took a whole lot of luck for Auburn to make it to the SEC Championship Game last year. Along the way there were home wins over Washington State, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama, and all of those games were decided by seven points or less. Three of the last five head to head meetings between these two teams have gone under the total. Tonight's number is much higher that it was in those previous contests, in fact it's higher than the combined total in all five of those games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 51 | Top | 17-23 |
Loss | -110 | 63 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ALA@MISS to go OVER the total.
It was only a few weeks ago that people were saying Alabama was in trouble, and that Blake Sims wasn't the answer at quarterback. I have been saying all along that Sims doesn't have to be great to replace a pretty average A.J. McCarron. He's coming off a huge game against Florida, throwing for 445 yards and four TDs.
Sims is definitely on the same page with wideout Amari Cooper, who caught 10 passes for 201 yards and three TDs against the Gators. While the offense is exceeding all expectations for Nick Saban's squad, the defense still looks a little suspect. The gave up 21 points against Florida, and 23 points against West Virginia.
Slowing down Bo Wallace should prove to be an even bigger challenge, he's thrown for 1271 yards and 11 TDs so far. I expect this year's contest to be more competitive than it has been in recent meetings between these two teams, and a close game with both teams scoring points could push the total over a pretty low number.
The total has gone over in six of Alabama's last seven games versus SEC opponents.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-17 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@ND to go UNDER the total.
Coming into the 2014 season, most expected Stanford to regress. The Cardinal had to replace their entire offensive line, but so far the new personnel has been equal to the task. The defense has picked up right where it left off in 2013, and after five weeks Stanford ranks 1st in the nation allowing fewer than seven points per game.
The Cardinal travel to South Bend to take on the Irish this week, and Notre Dame also owns one of the nation's top defenses. The Irish though have been padding their stats against some pretty weak teams. Their 31-0 win over Michigan looked pretty impressive at the time, but the Wolverines have looked brutal since. Wins over Syracuse and Purdue don't impress much, and today's game will be a much stiffer challenge.
The Cardinal have won four of the last five meetings in this series, and Notre Dame's lone win (2012) comes with a big asterisk. Stepfan Taylor got in the endzone with a game tying TD run, but the officials had prematurely whistled the play dead before the RB had been brought to the ground. The Irish escaped, and enjoyed an incredible run of luck for the rest of the season that saw them go all the way to the National Championship Game. The party was over though when Alabama rolled to victory by a score of 42-14.
Four of those five meetings went under the total, and with two of the top defenses in the country playing in cold and windy weather, we should expect another low scoring battle today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-14 |
Louisville v. Syracuse UNDER 46.5 | Top | 28-6 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOU@SYR to go UNDER the total. Louisville already suffered a tough loss on the road at Virginia, but I don't think they're going to have quite as much trouble with Syracuse. The Orange haven't impressed so far at home, losing to Maryland and needing overtime to beat Villanova. Quarterback Terrel Hunt completed just 50% of his pass attempts for 219 yards with no TDs and an INT in the loss to the Terrapins.
It won't get any easier for Hunt tonight, with Louisville's defense ranking 9th in the country allowing opponents an average of just 14 points per game. The Cardinals 20-10 win over Wake Forest doesn't look that impressive, but a closer look reveals that Wake Forest only managed 100 yards of total offense in that game.
Louisville's freshman quarterback hasn't impressed so far, with just 357 passing yards and one TD in the three games he's played. They haven't asked him to do a lot though, and the good news is, he hasn't thrown any picks. As long as they continue to be conservative and lean on their defense and running game, the Cardinal should have little trouble with Syracuse. Louisville has seen the total go under in six of it's last seven road games, and with their struggling offense, that trend should continue tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-02-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers OVER 47 | Top | 10-42 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIN@GB to go OVER the total.
The Packers put on a show with their offense last week, scoring on all but one of their offensive possessions in a 38-17 road win at Chicago. They should be able to light up the scoreboard at home tonight against a Vikings team that will be without it's best defensive player Chad Greenway.
The defense though remains a sore spot for Green Bay, as they've conceded a league worst 176 rushing yards per game. That's of particular concern against Minnesota's revamped running game that picked up a healthy 235 yards on the ground in last week's win over the Falcons.
These teams have a long history of playing high scoring games, as the total has gone over at a rate of 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings. The court of public opinion seems to have decided that if Teddy Bridgewater doesn't play (he still may) that the Vikes are screwed. I would point out that Christian Ponder completed 21-of-30 attempts for 233 yards and a TD in a 26-26 tie at Green Bay last year.
The Packers have seen the total go over in six of their last eight overall, and I expect that trend to continue at Lambeau tonight.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-29-14 |
New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 14-41 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NE@KC to go UNDER the total. The Pats will be at Arrowhead on Monday night, taking on Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs. I expect to see a low scoring game here, as both teams are likely to focus heavily on the the run. New England no longer looks like an offensive juggernaut, and they've been winning games with their defense. The Pats lead the league in pass defense, limiting opponents to an average of 168 yards passing per game. The Chiefs haven't had any success in their passing game, and Alex Smith ranks 25th among NFL quarterbacks with a passer rating of 81.5. Tom Brady hasn't had a lot of success either so far this year, as the offensive line hasn't been able to give him time to drop back and pass. Bill Belichick has been able to put together a game plan that has allowed his team to be successful despite such poor pass protection. The total has fallen well short of the number in each of the last four meetings between these two teams, and the total for tonight's game looks a little higher than it should be all things considered. Kansas City rarely plays high scoring games at home, with the total going under in 23 of their last 31 home games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 53 | Top | 17-38 |
Loss | -105 | 130 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NO@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Saints are a popular pick here in Dallas tonight, but I think it's important to remember that New Orleans isn't the same team on the road. The Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last eight road games, and nine of their last 12 overall.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes in 2013, and only 12 of those came outside the Superdome. He's torched the Cowboys in Dallas before though, and that's something that the Dallas coaching staff will be aware of.
This year's Cowboy's team isn't quite the same as it was in previous seasons. They aren't relying on Tony Romo to win games with his arm, instead they have been riding DeMarco Murray, who is currently the league's leading rusher.
Success running the football will also keep the ball out of the hands of Drew Brees, so you can bet your bottom dollar that Dallas is going to run early and often in tonight's game.
The Defense has struggled at times, and last week the Cowboys gave up a lot of points to a Rams third string QB. They did however hold San Francisco scoreless in the second half of their only home game this season.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Loss | -105 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TB@PIT to go UNDER the total.
The Buccaneers were embarrassed on the road at Atlanta last Thursday, but having an extra few days to prepare for this Sunday's game at Pittsburgh might allow them to show some improvement. I don't think the Bucs are quite as bad as they looked last week, and nor do I believe the Steelers are as good as they appeared to be in a win at Carolina.
The Steelers lead the league in rushing, averaging 163 yards per game so far. I expect them to come in to this game focused on the ground and pound, chewing up the clock with every possession.
The Bucs rank dead last in the NFL in passing, averaging just 163 yards per game. Their running game could get a boost with the return of RB Doug Martin.
Four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams have resulted in the total going under. Today's total is a little higher than in any of those previous contests. The Steelers have seen the total go under in 12 of their last 15 home games versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
Detroit Lions v. NY Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 81 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DET@NYJ to go UNDER the total.
The Jets defense has played very well so far this season, leading the league in opponent's rushing average, allowing just 55 yards per game. The offense on the other hand has been unimpressive, and Geno Smith has really struggled at quarterback.
Last week the Jets defense held Chicago to just 257 yards of total offense, but a pair of Geno Smith interceptions proved to be their undoing. The Lions defense held the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to just seven points.
I'm expecting to see a low scoring tilt between two teams that are more than capable defensively. The Lions do have a prolific offense, but perhaps not so much on the road. They didn't get much going offensively in a loss to the Bengals in Cincy in Week 2.
The total has gone over in three of the last six head to head meetings between these two teams, but today's total is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. Five of the Lions last six games overall have fallen short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-14 |
Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-15 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SYR@ND to go UNDER the total. The Irish played in an NFL stadium in their last game, a 30-14 win over Purdue. They will take on the Syracuse Orange at the Meadowlands tonight, and I expect to see another low scoring tilt. The Irish defense has been dominant so far, pitching a shutout against Michigan, and they rank 3rd nationally allowing just 10 points per game. Syracuse QB Terrel Hunt has been a dual threat, and he ran for 156 yards and two TDs against Maryland last week. Notre Dame isn't likely to let Hunt run freely here tonight, and he hasn't been quite so efficient as a passer. He's completed just 58% of his passes for 488 yards with only 1 TD so far this season. He'll be without his top target, Ashton Broyld is sidelined by a leg injury. He leads the team with 11 catches for 125 yards. Notre Dame's ability to run up the score may be hampered by poor pass protection. The Boilermakers managed to get to Everett Golson, sacking him four times. The Irish are also missing one of their top receivers, as Amir Carlisle is out with a knee injury. The Irish have seen the total go under in 15 of their last 18 against teams from the ACC. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-22-14 |
Chicago Bears v. NY Jets OVER 44 | Top | 27-19 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CHI@NJY to go OVER the total. The Jets defense hasn't given up anything on the ground, leading the NFL allowing opponents to average just 52 yards per game. They haven't been nearly as effective stopping the pass though, and Aaron Rodgers lite them up for 346 yards and three TDs last week. The Jets host the Bears on Monday Night Football, and Chicago's QB Jay Cutler can put points on the board in a hurry. He did just that last week, scoring three fourth quarter TDs to come from behind and beat the 49ers in San Francisco. Chicago has failed miserably trying to stop the run, and that doesn't bode well facing a Jets offense that leads the NFL in rushing. I expect the Jets to run all over the Bears with Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory as well as QB Geno Smith. These teams last met in 2010, and the Bears won that game by a score of 38-34. Chicago doesn't often play low scoring games on the road, in fact 13 of their last 16 games away from home have gone over the total. Public money has pushed this total down a few points from a number that was already quite low. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-21-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 45 | Top | 22-10 |
Win | 100 | 82 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SD@BUF to go UNDER the total.
The San Diego Chargers will be on the road at Buffalo this afternoon, and both these teams have impressed on defense so far this season. The Bills are 2-0, and they completely shut down Miami last week, defeating the Dolphins by a score of 29-10.
The Chargers lost to Arizona in Week 1, but bounced back last week with an impressive home win over the Seahawks. San Diego won't have RB Ryan Matthews here this Sunday, and running the ball won't be easy against a stout defensive front of Buffalo. The Bills have allowed opponents an average of just 83 yards rushing per game so far.
Buffalo will continue to work their own power running game, and they've had plenty of success with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson both averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If their success continues at home this week, we should see plenty of long clock killing drives.
The Chargers have played five straight low scoring games on the road, with the total going under in all five of those contests. They have also seen an overwhelming trend of low scoring games against AFC opponents, with 11 of their last 13 such games going under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-14 |
Florida v. Alabama OVER 50 | Top | 21-42 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FLA@ALA to go OVER the total.
Word on the street is that Alabama has lost it's air of invincibility. The Tide finished up last season with a loss to Auburn, and then they were embarrassed in a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. We'll find out just how good the Crimson Tide are (or aren't), when they host SEC rivals Florida this afternoon.
The Gators are coming off a 36-30 OT win over Kentucky, that saw QB Jeff Driskel set a career high with 295 passing yards, and three TDs. He connected with Demarcus Robinson for 15 receptions for 216 yards and a pair of TDs. Driskel could continue to be successful against this Alabama defense that will be without safety Nick Perry, who will have to sit for the first half after being ejected in last week's game.
West Virginia was able to hang with Alabama in Week 1, and Clint Trickett totaled 365 passing yards in the 33-23 loss. I don't believe that either of these two teams are as strong defensively as they have been in past seasons, and the total for today's game looks a little low.
Alabama has seen six of it's last eight home games go over the total, and that is a trend that should continue today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-14 |
Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GT@VT to go UNDER the total.
The Hokies were stunned by the air attack of the East Carolina Pirates, going down 21-0 in the first quarter, before they even knew what hit them. They buckled down after that though, holding the Pirates scoreless, and answering with three TDs of their own to tie the score at 21-21. Shane Carden only needed one minute to engineer the game winning drive that handed Virginia Tech a 28-21 loss.
Don't expect a repeat of that scenario this week against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. First of all, the Yellow Jackets are one-dimensional team that will try to pound away with the run, so whatever problems the Hokies had defending the pass shouldn't be an issue here today. A slow start last week might have been a product of over-confidence after upsetting the Buckeyes, but they should be ready to play from the opening kickoff tonight.
Virginia Tech's defense looked pretty solid against the run when they played Ohio State, limiting the buckeyes to less than three yards per carry. The Hokies have won six of the last seven meetings with Georgia Tech, and six of those seven games went under the total. Last year's meeting saw the Hokies win by a score of 17-10. Taking that into consideration, today's total looks way too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-14 |
Purdue v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 | Top | 14-30 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PUR@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish might be due for a let down after such an emotional win last week, shutting out rivals Michigan 31-0 in the final scheduled meeting between the two schools. They host another Big-10 team this Saturday, and the Irish are a 29 point favorite versus Purdue. There is no doubt that the Irish should win this game, after all.. they have won six straight against the Boilermakers since 2008. Most of those games were very close though, and four of the six went under the total. The two games that went over ... still didn't see enough points to go over tonight's total.
The line opened in the mid fifties, and has been bet up several points since. Notre Dame doesn't look like they are going to surrender many points to an inferior opponent, and the Irish have a history of playing low scoring games at home. The under is 34-16-1 in Fighting Irish last 51 games overall. I expect the Irish to punish the Boilermakers with the run, while shutting them down completely.
My Prediction: Notre Dame wins 41-10.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-14 |
Houston v. BYU UNDER 57 | Top | 25-33 |
Loss | -110 | 66 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
The Houston Cougars scored 46 points in a home loss to BYU last season, but I don't expect Houston to have any success offensively here in Provo. BYU is coming off consecutive road wins, allowing a total of 17 points. Last week they held the Texas Longhorns to just seven points in Texas.
Houston meanwhile hasn't looked nearly as good offensively as they were a year ago, despite a 47-0 win over Grambling State last week. Cougars QB John O'Korn turned in a pretty pedestrian effort against an inferior opponent at home, completing 14-of-24 attempts for just 200 yards and one TD. This comes after he was picked off four times in the home opener versus UTSA.
On the defensive side of the ball though, Houston hasn't been too bad. They pitched a shutout last week, and UTSA only had 263 yards of total offense in Week 1. They aren't going to stop BYU, but they might be able to stop the Cougars from running up the score.
Houston has seen the total go under in six of it's last seven overall, while BYU has seen the total fall below the number in nine of it's last 10 games coming off a game with 200+ rushing yards. The home team should have no shortage of success running the ball tonight, burning up the clock as they do so.
My prediction: BYU wins 37-13
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-06-14 |
Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-37 |
Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CSU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
The Broncos lost to Ole Miss in Week 1 by a score of 35-14, but the game was actually a lot closer than the score would indicate. The Rebels took a 7-6 lead into the fourth quarter, before scoring three quick TDs, putting the game out of reach. Boise State QB Grant Hedrick completed 36-of-46 attempts for 264 yards and a TD, but he was picked off four times. Of course he was up against a strong defense hailing from the SEC, but don't think it's going to be a cakewalk against CSU.
The Rams defense turned in a solid effort last week, limited the Buffaloes to just 17 points. Colorado State used a power running game to defeat rivals Colorado, and they ran for 266 yards on 45 carries. Both Dee Hart and Tre Darells ran for over 100 yards, and the dynamic duo had three TDs between them. Life should be a little tougher here on the Blue Turf tonight though, the Broncos didn't give up much on the ground against Ole Miss. The Rebels only averaged 2.1 yards per carry, with 71 yards rushing total.
The Broncos have seen the total go under in four of their last five overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jess Schule |
09-06-14 |
Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 56 | Top | 0-31 |
Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MICH@ND to go Under the total. The Michigan Wolverines will travel to South Bend for the final scheduled meeting against rivals Notre Dame. Both these teams are coming off blowout wins over cupcakes in Week 1, but we should see a spirited battle here this week, and I expect points to be few and far between.
The Irish will try to avenge a 41-30 loss at Michigan last year, and they should have more success stopping the Wolverines at home. The last time Michigan played at South Bend, we saw the home team prevail by a score of 13-6. In fact low scoring games are the norm in South Bend, with the Irish seeing the total go under in 25 of their last 36 home games.
Everett Golson threw for 292 yards and a pair of TDs in the win over Rice last week, but he was just 3-of-8 for 30 yards and was picked off twice versus Michigan in the last meeting here at South Bend. He did not play in last year's loss at Michigan.
Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have had a total below 50, yet the total in this game is far higher than usual.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |