Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-20-23 | Rockets v. Warriors -7.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Rockets have reeled off an incredible eight straight ATS victories but are in a tough spot here, playing their third game in four nights off a hard-fought one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles last night. Golden State has lost six straight games and is 0-4-1 ATS over its last five contests. It should be happy to be facing the Rockets on Monday, however, noting that the Warriors outlasted Houston 106-95 on the road back in late October. Note that Golden State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 home games after giving up 130 or more points in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4.5 | 128-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Orlando at 5:10 pm et on Sunday. I like the spot for the Pacers here as they return to the court for the first time since Tuesday to host a Magic squad that should be fat and happy off consecutive wins in Chicago. Indiana has incredibly knocked down at least 44 field goals in eight straight games. Contrast that with the slow-paced Magic, who have had a tough enough time getting an ample number of shots off let alone knocking them down, connecting on 38 or fewer field goals in four straight games entering Sunday's contest. Of course, that is by design as the Magic are one of the league's better defensive teams. I simply feel they'll have a tough time keeping pace against a fresh-legged Pacers squad as they wrap up their four-game in six-night road trip on Sunday. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -6 | 100-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockets have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. Since starting 0-3 they've reeled off six straight wins, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting that all six of those wins came at home. They'll hit the road following a four-day layoff on Friday. The Clippers are at the opposite end of the spectrum, riding a six-game losing streak, going 1-5 ATS over that stretch. They have faced a pretty brutal recent schedule, however, but are in better position here at home following two days off to figure things out. The good news is, their issues are correctable as they simply haven't been knocking down their shots. I like the spot here before they're off for two more days prior to a two-game set in San Antonio. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings have bounced back to deliver three straight wins following a three-game losing streak but all three of those victories came at home. I think they've had this six-game road trip circled on their calendar since an embarrassing two-game stop in Houston in which they were blown out just over a week ago. The Lakers check in to play the second of back-to-back nights after posting a blowout win over Memphis last night. Los Angeles has now won three games in a row although it went just 2-1 ATS over that stretch and has yet to deliver consecutive ATS victories this season. That's nothing new as Los Angeles is just 35-52 in its last 87 games after recording an ATS win, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. There's no intimidation factor favoring the Lakers here as the Kings are 4-1 against them since the start of last season including a perfect 2-0 mark here in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Suns as they catch the Timberwolves playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Phoenix has lost consecutive games, both SU and ATS, and is just 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven contests. With that being said, it is expected to get back some reinforcements on Wednesday, including Devin Booker. It also has the benefit of having been idle since Sunday's double-digit home loss to the Thunder. The Suns are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in seven meetings between these two teams in Phoenix since the start of the 21-22 season. Also note that they're 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 100 points in their previous game, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Knicks -1 v. Hawks | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks were humbled by the Celtics two nights ago in Boston. They'll be happy to be in Atlanta on Wednesday, where they've had plenty of success in recent years, going 4-1 SU in their last five matchups here. New York is a long-term 63-44 against Atlanta and is in a favorable spot here, waiting for the Hawks to return home after they managed to win (and cover) in Detroit without Trae Young last night. He'll likely be back in the Hawks lineup on Wednesday - regardless, I like the Knicks to bounce back. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
11-14-23 | Wolves v. Warriors -1.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. With Steph Curry added to the injury report for the Warriors we've seen this line plummet. I'm willing to get behind Golden State regardless whether Curry is able to play or not on Tuesday. I think the Warriors problems right now are fixable. They've lost four of their last five contests as they've quite simply lost their shooting touch, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in four of those games. It's been precisely the opposite for the Timberwolves, who have won six straight contests, making good on at least 43 field goals in each of their last five games. Interestingly, Minnesota has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, meaning it is playing with a relatively small margin for error. I look for the Warriors to clamp down here, noting that they're 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the T'Wolves are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games after covering the spread in at least five straight contests, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
11-12-23 | Heat v. Spurs +2 | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have really been struggling defensively but they earn a reprieve of sorts on Sunday as they host the Heat playing in a back-to-back spot and not exactly setting the court on fire offensively. Miami has knocked down 41 or fewer field goals in eight of nine games this season, only managing to eclipse that mark in a win (but non-cover) against Washington. The Spurs check in playing well offensively, having made good on 43 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. San Antonio does figure to put some pressure on a Miami team playing on no rest, noting that the Spurs have hoisted up at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight games. While the Spurs have lost four games in a row we do know they're capable of better as they swept a two-game road set against the Suns and defeated an improved Rockets team here at home. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings struggled again but still managed to snap their three-game losing streak with an overtime victory over the Blazers at home on Wednesday. They'll have the benefit of staying at home as they host the Thunder on Friday night. For whatever reason, Sacramento has had Oklahoma City's number in recent years, taking six straight meetings in this series going back to December of 2021. While we often like backing the Thunder in an underdog role, that's not the case on Friday as they check in as a rare road favorite following consecutive wins (and covers) at home. Wednesday's ATS defeat may have been the last straw for some Kings bettors but we'll go the other way and call for them to snap their three-game ATS skid on Friday night. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
11-10-23 | Hornets +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This is a quick revenge spot for the Hornets after they dropped a 132-116 decision as 2.5-point home favorites against the Wizards two nights ago. I like Charlotte's chances of rebounding here. Note that the Wizards are an awful defensive team, allowing 126.9 points per game on a blistering 51.7% shooting this season. The only reason they were able to outlast the Hornets on Wednesday was that Charlotte didn't take care of the basketball, turning it over a season-high 20 times. Note that Washington is a long-term 169-213 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Wizards are also in a classic fade spot of mine as they return home on just one day of rest following a road trip that lasted four games or longer. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
11-08-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -3 | 105-108 | Push | 0 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors have undoubtedly had this matchup circled since dropping all three meetings with the Nuggets last season. I'm not sure it matters. Denver overcame a miserable first half against New Orleans on Monday before unloading in the final 24 minutes in a runaway 134-116 victory. It's been that kind of start to the campaign for Denver as it has very much looked like the team to beat in the Western Conference. The Warriors have covered a ton of ground in the early going this season with their current road trip already taking them to Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Detroit and now Denver. In fact, this will be Golden State's ninth game in the last 13 nights, in nine different cities. The Nuggets on the other hand have been home and cool since November 3rd and following Wednesday's contest will enjoy three off days before a game in Houston on Sunday. Note that Denver is a long-term 137-101 ATS when playing at home off consecutive home games, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
11-08-23 | Lakers -2.5 v. Rockets | 94-128 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets laid waste to the Kings over the last two games and are now 3-1 on their current six-game homestand. Keep in mind, this is a team that started the campaign with three straight losses, both SU and ATS. Note that Houston is a long-term 103-136 ATS when coming off three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. The Lakers have dropped the first two games on their current road trip, most recently falling just one point short in Miami on Monday. The finale of this trip will come against a revenge-minded Suns squad in Phoenix on Friday so if they want to salvage something positive, this would appear to be the spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
11-06-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Nuggets | 116-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans are coming off an 18-point rout at the hands of the red hot Hawks on Saturday. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot on paper as they head out on the road to face the defending champion Nuggets, it's worth noting that they hung with Denver in four meetings last season, going 2-2 with the two defeats coming by a combined 10 points. Denver is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS on its current homestand, marking its first ATS winning streak this season. While New Orleans will be without C.J. McCollum for an indefinite period of time due to a lung issue, Denver could be without oft-injured Jamal Murray as he deals with a knee injury. The Pelicans are just 2-2 ATS at home this season but a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road and I look for them to run that record to 3-0 on Monday. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
11-05-23 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The upstart Blazers are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an overtime victory over these same Grizzlies on Friday. I look for Memphis to answer back and notch its first victory of the campaign in Sunday's rematch. Memphis actually outshot Portland by a considerable margin on Friday but couldn't overcome a 36-13 discrepancy in terms of free throw attempts. That should even out in Sunday's contest. Note that the Grizzlies are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored at least 110 points, as is the case here. The Blazers are a long-term 43-67 ATS in an underdog role and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 contests as a home underdog of six points or less, outscored by an average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this play sets up as the Magic got a chance to scout the Jazz first hand last night (Utah played Memphis) following a winless two-game stop-over in Los Angeles. I'm of the belief that Orlando has a chance to be a good, if not great team this season but so far it has managed only two wins in four games. The Magic should have a little extra chip on their shoulder on Thursday after they dropped both meetings between these two teams last season including a narrow four-point defeat here in Salt Lake City. Note that Orlando has generally gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, posting a 17-6 ATS mark in its last 23 road contests following consecutive games played away from home, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season after staging an 'upset' road win in New Orleans on Monday. That concluded a perfect 3-0 trip for Golden State, which began with a victory over the same Kings they'll face back home on Wednesday. I like Sacramento's chances of exacting some early season revenge as it looks to improve on its 2-1 start to the campaign. Remember, the Kings proved they could hang with the Warriors in the first round of last April's playoffs, pushing them to seven games. Sacramento won't have the services of De'Aaron Fox for an extended period of time but that's been more than factored into this line in my opinion. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up beautifully for the home underdog Timberwolves as they look to bring an end to the defending-champion Nuggets' perfect 4-0 start to the season. Minnesota checks in off an 'upset' road loss in Atlanta s it was crushed by 14 points on Monday. Of course, that was a letdown spot for the T'Wolves as they were fresh off a 16-point home win over the Heat two nights earlier. There's a playoff revenge angle in play here after Denver ousted Minnesota in five games in the opening round last April. That was after the T'Wolves managed to take both regular season meetings here in Minnesota. Note that Denver is a long-term 142-183 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive victories. In Minnesota's last 172 home games following an upset defeat it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.5 points. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Wizards +8.5 v. Hawks | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards got drilled by 19 points last time out but that was against an elite Celtics squad that has come storming out of the gates this season. Here, I think Washington is catching Atlanta in a prime letdown spot with the Hawks fresh off consecutive double-digit wins to even their record at 2-2 on the season. Atlanta checks in a woeful 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following an ATS win and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 contests after a home victory. The Hawks are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an outright underdog victory, which is the situation here after their home win over the Timberwolves as 2.5-point underdogs. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors picked up their second straight victory last night in Houston but now face a difficult three-in-four spot on the road against the revenge-minded Pelicans (Golden State took the last two meetings last season). New Orleans was idle on Sunday after improving to 2-0 on the season with a nine-point win over the Knicks on Saturday. Note that the Warriors had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Rockets last night, attempting only 81 field goals (and making just 35 of them) in the victory. The Pelicans have allowed each of their first two opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts but have defended well, allowing just 38 and 33 makes in those two contests. On the flip side, New Orleans has made good on exactly 40 field goals in consecutive games despite playing at a reasonably slow pace. Here, we'll note that Golden State checks in a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog of six points or less, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs picked up their first win of the Victor Wembanyama era by way of overtime at home against the Rockets two nights ago, but they needed overtime to get it. San Antonio has played about as well as you could expect offensively, knocking down exactly 46 field goals in each contest. The problem is, the Spurs also allowed a whopping 47 and 52 made field goals in those two games and now they hit the road for the first time to face a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after dropping a two-point decision as a road favorite in Utah on Friday. The Clippers have actually been about as efficient as any team in the league offensively through two games, shooting better than 52% from the field. They figure to go off here, noting they scored 113, 119, 131 and 138 points in four matchups in this series last season. The Spurs check in a woeful 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | 102-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors let the Bulls off the hook last night as Chicago blew a big second quarter lead, trailed by a wide margin late before tying it up on a parade to the free throw line and ultimately winning by a single point in overtime. Off that shaky performance, I look for a much sharper four quarter effort from the Bulls on Saturday in Detroit. The Pistons won outright as 4.5-point underdogs in Charlotte last night - their second straight ATS win to open the campaign. Detroit's first two opponents struggled to knock down their shots but I'm willing to chalk that up more as early season rust rather than the Pistons defensive prowess. Chicago has owned this series in Motown in recent years and I look for it to continue its dominance here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this play sets up as bettors overreact to season-opening results from these two teams. The Clippers turned in a near-flawless performance but that was at home against what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Blazers. Meanwhile, the Jazz dropped a lopsided decision at home but that was against one of the league's true up-and-coming teams in the Kings. I look for the script to flip on Friday night, noting that Utah is a long-term 42-14 straight-up at home against Los Angeles including four straight wins going back to the start of the 2021-22 season. This is one of those tough one-game road trips for the Clippers, in altitude no less, before they return home for winnable games against the Spurs and Magic on Sunday and Tuesday. Should the Jazz fall again here, they'll be starting at a very tough start with a two-game trip to Phoenix and Denver on deck. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Bulls on Friday as they look to split their season-opening two-game homestand after dropping their first game by 20 points against Oklahoma City. The Thunder quite simply shot the lights out in that game. Chicago actually held Oklahoma City to only 82 field goal attempts but it made good on 45 of them. If the Bulls can limit the pace again here they should be in good shape, noting the Raptors knocked down just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in their three-point win over Minnesota on Wednesday. In that contest, the Raptors allowed the Timberwolves to hoist up a whopping 101 FG attempts. Needless to say, Minnesota didn't make the most of its opportunities, connecting on only 34. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series with the Bulls being the lone team to grab the cash on the road (in the most recent matchup between these teams last April) over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Chicago is 26-14 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons and 35-19 ATS in the role of home favorite over the last three seasons. Toronto is a woeful 10-24 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less over the last three seasons. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
10-25-23 | Hawks -2.5 v. Hornets | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. Here, we'll lay the points with the Hawks as they open their campaign against the Hornets in Charlotte. Atlanta had a productive preseason, going 3-2 while limiting opponents to 86, 89, 81, 83 and 86 field goal attempts. The Hornets on the other hand got off 93, 94, 88 and 88 FG attempts in their four preseason contests but knocked down 37 or fewer of those attempts in three of those games. In fact, the only game where they were able to get anything going offensively they were facing Oklahoma City's 'B' squad (Charlotte used most of its regular starters and shot 52% from the field and still won by only two points). Atlanta does enter this game with 'double revenge' having dropped its last two meetings with Charlotte last season. Note that the Hornets haven't won three straight matchups in this series since posting five straight victories over the Hawks from 2017 to 2018. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that Game 2 of this series sets up all that much differently than Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. As I noted in my analysis of that contest, this isn't a favorable matchup for the Heat, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Miami's offensive ceiling appears to be fairly low, noting that it has not knocked down an identical 39 field goals in all three meetings with the Nuggets this season. In Game 1, the Heat actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts. I expect to see Denver tighten things up considerably from a defensive standpoint here. On the flip side, the Nuggets made good on 45 and 44 field goals in the two regular season matchups between these two teams but connected on 'only' 40 in Game 1. That was on just 79 FG attempts, however. This line may seem steep until you realize that Denver has outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points this season. Much like in Game 1, we'll again note that the Heat are 0-11 ATS after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less this season, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets in Game 1 of The Finals on Thursday. Miami of course checks in off an incredible seven-game series against the Celtics, going 5-2 ATS along the way. Note that the Heat were contained offensively for the most part in the latter stages of that series, knocking down 42 or fewer field goals in each of the final four games. I feel Miami's offensive ceiling in this particular matchup with the Nuggets is rather low, noting that it made good on an identical 39 field goals in each of two regular season meetings. In fact, the Heat have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals nine of the last 10 matchups in this series. Denver on the other hand has made good on 42 or more field goals in six straight meetings and 45 or more twice over that stretch. While this line may seem steep, it's worth noting that the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 10.1 points on average. Also note that the Heat are 0-10 ATS this season when coming off consecutive games in which they held the opposition to 105 points or fewer, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat pulled off a stunner in Game 1 to steal home court advantage and at the very least a split in the first two games here in Boston. Incredibly, the ATS winner has now won the last 28 meetings in this series straight-up including 13 outright underdog victories. I look for that trend to continue on Friday but with the Celtics coming out on the winning end this time around. It certainly appeared as if the Celtics thought the Heat would simply roll over and concede Game 1 after Boston took control late in the first half to build a nine-point halftime lead. Instead, the Heat came out on fire in the third quarter, took control of the game and cruised the rest of the way. Note that Miami knocked down 46 field goals in the victory. We haven't seen it connect on 46 or more field goals in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd (oddly enough both games were against Boston) so we can count on some offensive regression here. The Celtics have now dropped three straight meetings in this series (both SU and ATS) and that's notable as they haven't lost four straight matchups against Miami since 2004. Here, we'll note that the Heat are just 8-18 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, while the Celtics are 19-9 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home over the last two seasons. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'm just not buying what the oddsmakers are selling with the Celtics laying a generous helping of points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive ATS defeats - their longest ATS losing skid since dropping the cash in three straight games from March 25th to 29th. Prior to that you would have to go back to February 13th to 25th - spanning across the All-Star break - to find a previous occasion where Miami lost more than two games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, the Celtics have covered the spread in consecutive games. They haven't strung together more than two ATS wins in a row since a six-game ATS winning streak that stretched from the last two games of the regular season into their opening round mismatch with the Hawks. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup. The Celtics topped out at 46 made field goals in four regular season matchups between these two teams and that performance came in a game where the Heat were missing Jimmy Butler back in late-November (Boston won that game by 13 points). In fact, the C's have knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. That's not to say the Heat have lit it up from the field in this matchup, however, I do feel there's a path for Miami to effectively shorten this game, noting that it checks in having limited the Knicks to 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of six games last round. The Celtics have been a more up-tempo team than we've been accustomed to seeing as a whole this season, but enter this series having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 contests. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are just 9-21 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Lakers thrashed the Warriors by 30 points on Saturday as Golden State had a miserable night shooting the basketball, connecting on just 36-of-91 field goal attempts in the loss. Hidden in that lopsided result was the fact that the Warriors held their sixth straight opponent to 43 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has now limited an incredible 19 of its last 20 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. I am confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back offensively here, noting that they've averaged 120.0 points per game when coming off a contest in which they made good on fewer than 40 field goals this season. We can project Golden State to have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game as the Lakers have now yielded more than 90 field goal attempts to seven straight opponents. While Los Angeles has hung tough in this series going back to the start of the regular season, I don't feel it has all that high of an offensive ceiling, noting that it has topped out at 42 made field goals in seven matchups. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 22-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. This is also one our favorite fade spots for the Lakers, as they're a woeful 5-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last three seasons. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday. The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Celtics made the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing in Game 1 of this series and ultimately thrashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 on Wednesday. I expect the 76ers to answer back as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. While it's difficult to term any playoff game as a 'throwaway affair' but I think Game 2 of this series did quickly devolve into that type of contest for the 76ers. They ultimately hoisted up only 79 field goal attempts (and connected on just 31) in that uninspiring effort. Of course, the Sixers had already accomplished what they set out to do in the first two games in Boston and that was earn a split. A letdown was almost surely in order. Here, I'm confident it will be Philadelphia that makes the necessary adjustments, noting that it allowed Boston to get off 92 field goal attempts in Game 2 - the first time in seven games it yielded more than 83 FG attempts to its opponent. Still, the Sixers have limited seven straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Philadelphia has allowed 110.2 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 104.3 ppg allowed when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here, outscoring foes by an average margin of 7.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Boston averages 116.1 points per game on the road this season but that scoring average drops to 110.7 ppg when coming off a win over a division opponent. Finally, we'll note that the 76ers are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The majority of the teams looking to 'bounce back' in NBA playoff action last night simply didn't, with the Cavaliers and Bucks both eliminated on their home floor and the Kings pushed to the brink of elimination with a home defeat against the Warriors - their third loss in a row. Only the Grizzlies managed to fight back. I only say point that out as I do expect the Celtics to respond positively following their stunning home loss to the Hawks two nights ago. Boston appeared to have that game (and the series) sewn up but as has inexplicably happened on multiple occasions this season, it let down its guard and now is forced to go back to work on the road on Thursday. Note that the Celtics are 39-26 ATS when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Atlanta on the other hand checks in a woeful 7-19 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog over the last two seasons, as is the case here. While the return of Dejounte Murray from suspension figures to give the Hawks a boost, it also serves to take some opportunities away from Trae Young, who I think thrives when forced to shoulder the entire offensive load, as we saw in Game 5 on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat pulled off an improbable home sweep of the Bucks in Games 3 and 4 of this series and head to Milwaukee with a commanding 3-1 series lead. I expect the Bucks to answer back on Wednesday, however. Consider Game 4 of this series the 'Jimmy Butler Game' as he went off for 56 points with the rest of the Heat players essentially left to play bit parts. Despite being held to 87 field goal attempts or less in all four games in this series, the Heat have scored above their season scoring average in all four contests thanks to knocking down 50, 45, 45 and 43 field goals. Interestingly, Game 4 was actually their worst shooting performance of the series yet they won in a rout. Here, I'm confident we'll see a positive response from the Bucks defensively. Note that prior to this series, Miami had made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 25 of its previous 30 contests. Despite the loss in the same situation in Game 4, the Bucks are still 11-2 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season, averaging well north of their season scoring average with 120.0 points per game in that situation. When coming off consecutive ATS losses this season (12-game sample size), as is the case here, Milwaukee has averaged 123.9 points per game. In the long-term picture, the Bucks are 71-46 ATS when playing at home off consecutive defeats. This has typically been a poor spot for the Heat this season as they're a woeful 1-10 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games, averaging only 104.8 points per game in that situation. Over the last two seasons, the Heat have gone 4-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six contests ATS, as is the case here, averaging a similarly poor 104.9 ppg along the way. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. After stealing a split in the first two games of this series in Memphis the Lakers held serve in Games 3 and 4 at home, including an overtime victory last time out. Needless to say, that most recent contest could have gone either way and I certainly don't think the Grizzlies will feel like they're out of this series despite being down 3-1. Extended ATS winning streaks haven't been commonplace for the Lakers in recent years, noting that they've gone 15-28 ATS following two or more ATS victories in a row over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Worse still, they're just 8-19 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same stretch. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, check in 19-7 when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points in that situation. They've proven to be a resilient team, going 17-6 ATS after suffering consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.1 points on average in that spot. Despite losing both Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, Memphis still held the Lakers to just 41 made field goals in each contest (including an overtime game) and have now limited five of their last eight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Following a late season offensive surge, the Lakers have connected on 41 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. I also feel that Los Angeles is giving up far too many scoring opportunities, having yielded 89 or more field goal attempts in regulation time in six of its last seven contests. Look for the Grizzlies to take advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Garden felt like the Garden again as the Knicks rolled to consecutive victories over the Cavaliers on Friday and Sunday, grabbing a 3-1 lead in the series as it shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Wednesday. I don't expect the Cavs to roll over as they've owned a considerable home court advantage of their own all season, going 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Better still, the Cavs are 10-2 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridculous average margin of 14.8 points in that spot. When playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS this season, as is the case here, they've held opponents to just 98.1 points per game, outscoring them by 16.6 points on average. I felt that Cleveland had its share of good looks from the field in Games 3 and 4 but simply couldn't take advantage. While the Knicks have undoubtedly been good defensively, limiting the Cavs to 38 or fewer made field goals in all four games in this series, Cleveland has now limited six straight opponents to less than 40 made field goals. Here at home this season, the Cavs have held the opposition to an average of only 38 made field goals per contest. As poorly as things went for Cleveland offensively over the last couple of games, it's worth noting that it was held to fewer than 100 points in back-to-back contests only once previously this season - that coming in its regular season finale and then Game 1 of this series. We saw the Cavs bounce back from those poor performances with a resounding 107-90 win over the Knicks in Game 2. Look for them to bring their 'A' game again on Wednesday. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I think we're seeing an overreaction to the lopsided nature of Game 3 of this series on Thursday as the Kings suffered an expected letdown after winning the first two games of the series at home. Sacramento certainly didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, knocking down just 35-of-92 field goal attempts in the 17-point loss. I do think the potential is there for the Kings to give the Warriors a much tougher run here, noting they haven't dropped consecutive games ATS in this series since back in October and December 2021 (the two teams have met nine times since). While the Warriors have been defending reasonably well, as I noted in my analysis of Thursday's contest, I don't like the fact that they've now allowed nine straight opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts including 98, 92 and 92 in this series. Give a team as talented as the Kings enough scoring opportunities and they're going to take advantage. On the flip side, Game 3 marked the first time in seven games the Kings allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts and they still held the Warriors to only 40 made field goals. Sacramento has limited seven straight and 10 of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of its last 11 contests. The Warriors will get Draymond Green back from suspension for this game. I'm not sure how much of a help that really is as I liked the rotation they employed without him on Thursday with Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo in particular seeing extra floor time. Finally, we'll note that the Kings are 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. They've gone 22-12 ATS when coming off a loss this season, outscoring foes by 2.7 points on average in that spot. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a major adjustment to this pointspread since Game 1, due in large part to the up-in-the-air status of Ja Morant after he re-aggravated his hand injury in the series-opener. I believe it will prove too much of an adjustment as the Grizzlies look to answer back at home, where they're still an incredible 35-7 this season having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.0 points per game. Keep in mind, Memphis is accustomed to playing without Morant as it has done so on 22 occasions this season. Also note that he has topped out at 18 points in six of his last nine games so I do think his offensive production can be accounted for with Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard in particular being called upon. The Lakers are approaching uncharted territory noting that they've now won four straight games. They've only once previously won more than four games in a row this season, that coming in a five-game win streak from December 30th to January 7th. Also note that they've now covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Grizzlies. They haven't managed to reel off three straight ATS victories in this series since way back in 2017. The fact that the Lakers pulled away in the closing minutes on Saturday sets them up in a situation where they've gone 18-35 ATS following a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS when playing at home following two or more days' rest this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points on average in that spot. They've also 24-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.6 points in that situation. I could go on but the bottom line is, I don't anticipate the Lakers getting anything close to the combined 19-of-27 shooting we saw from the duo of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in Game 1, while the Grizzlies have proven resilient under head coach Taylor Jenkins going 23-10 ATS playing at home off a home loss and 38-22 ATS when coming off consecutive defeats. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento over Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting the Warriors to simply 'flip the switch' and play competitive basketball on the road in these playoffs but I'm not so easily convinced. Golden State actually had just nine wins in 39 road games before beating this same Kings squad (in a game where it rested most of its starters) and a down-trodden, injury-riddled Blazers team last week. Even in that win over the Kings, the Warriors still managed to get off only 78 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Warriors, despite fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, still allowed each of their last six opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. The Kings figure to be poised to take advantage, noting that they average 45 made field goals per contest (on only 88 FG attempts per game) here at home this season. The Warriors won last week's meeting SU and ATS but haven't posted consecutive ATS victories in this series since late 2021. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 21-12 ATS off a loss this season and 12-1 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS, as is the case here. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I just think the Timberwolves are a mess right now in all regards and don't really understand the logic behind them being favored by such a considerable margin in this play-in game against the pesky Thunder. Yes, Oklahoma City continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses. The Thunder prevailed on Wednesday in New Orleans despite allowing the Pelicans to knock down 42-of-87 field goal attempts. I'm not convinced the T'Wolves are as well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma City's current defensive transgressions, however. Anthony Edwards is a shell of his former self due to late-season injuries and shot a miserable 6-of-17 from the field in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Rudy Gobert will return after serving his one-game suspension as he deals with a bad back. The Thunder are a taxing opponent to face right now as they continue to push the pace, hoisting up 93, 97, 90 and 92 field goal attempts over their last four games. It's been a struggle for the T'Wolves to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting 85 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games including only 83 in Tuesday's overtime contest against the Lakers. Minnesota has picked a bad time to go in the tank offensively, making good on 41 or fewer field goals in six of its last seven games. It has also struggled to slow down the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests (aided by overtime last time out). While the T'Wolves have taken three of four meetings with the Thunder this season they haven't covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series since last season (they won the most recent meeting ATS on December 16th). Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors managed to close out their regular season on a high note by blowing out the undermanned Bucks on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. I'm just not sold on this Toronto team, noting that nothing seemed to come easy for it all season, going an even 40-40 ATS (excluding pushes) and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 1.5 points. The Bulls were almost a mirror-image during the regular season, going 42-39 ATS while outscoring opponents by 1.3 points on average. I fully expect a tightly-contested affair between these familiar foes on Wednesday and will grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Note that Toronto did take the most recent meeting 104-98 here at home in late February. That's notable as the Raptors haven't won consecutive games against the Bulls since reeling off an incredible 12 straight victories in the series from 2017 to 2020. They haven't posted two ATS wins in a row over Chicago since March and October of 2019. Thanks to a defense that checks in having held 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, I do think the Bulls are capable of hanging with anyone on any given night. The Raps have been similarly tough to break down defensively but that only lends itself to a reasonably low-scoring game here and in that situation, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with Chicago. Note that Toronto is just 9-21 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 0.5 points on average in that situation. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this game on Friday. The Pistons have at least continued to play some defense, allowing 38, 44, 41, 45 and 39 made field goals over their last five games but in the three occasions where the opposition got into the 40's, they also got off 92 or more field goal attempts. It's a different story for Houston. It has allowed a ridiculous 50 or more made field goals in two of its last four games. On the flip side, the Rockets have knocked down 42 or more field goals in consecutive games but haven't hit 40+ in three straight contests since doing so in five straight games from March 9th to 17th - a stretch that saw them win three games outright (they've lost seven straight games since). Noting that they're 49-30 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, we'll back the revenge-minded Pistons here (they lost the first meeting this season by three points at home in late-January). Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday as the Magic look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Grizzlies aim for their seventh consecutive victory. The Grizzlies have been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. On the flip side, however, they also seem to be developing some bad habits defensively, having yielded 48, 47 and 45 made field goals over their last three contests. After facing the likes of the Rockets (twice) and Hawks over their last three games, the Magic might just resemble the early-2000's Pistons to the Grizzlies here. Orlando has held three of its last four opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic offense has thrived, knocking down 40 or more field goals in each of their last 13 contests. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the spot here for the struggling Suns as they check in having lost four of their last five games SU and all five ATS but all is not lost. They're still sitting in second place in the Pacific Division and fourth in the Western Conference. You would assume Phoenix would be struggling mightily at the offensive end of the floor with Kevin Durant and now DeAndre Ayton sidelined but that hasn't necessarily been the case. The Suns put up 120 points in Sunday's narrow loss to the Thunder and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in an incredible nine straight games and 40 or more in 14 consecutive contests. The issue has been their defensive play but I believe that can be rectified in fairly short order. Here, we'll note that the Suns have allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (54-game sample size) and 107.2 ppg when that loss came on the road (33-game sample size), as is the case here. The Lakers have topped out at 111 points over their last three games - that performance coming in the 'Austin Reaves game' on Sunday against the road-weary Magic. Note that Los Angeles has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four contests. Like the Suns, the Lakers have also had a tough time defensively in recent weeks, allowing 46, 42, 42, 47, 40 and 41 made field goals over their last six games. Note that they're a woeful 13-27 ATS when playing at home after a home win over the last three seasons. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a double-overtime game two nights ago in Philadelphia with the Bulls pulling out a 109-105 victory. The 76ers haven't shot remotely close to as poorly as they did in that contest since back on February 27th in a 101-99 home loss to the Heat. Note that they followed up that dismal performance with a 119-96 victory in Miami two nights later. I expect the Sixers to bounce back nicely here as well, noting that they're 22-12 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. The Bulls are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, which means they're approaching uncharted territory as they've put together a streak longer than that only once previously, and that lasted just four games back in early January. While Chicago has been winning it has been increasingly reliant on the do of Zach LaVine and Demar Derozan to shoulder the offensive load. I'm confident we'll see the Sixers - an elite defensive team - make the necessary adjustments against that duo here. Even in Monday's overtime loss, the Sixers still held Chicago to fewer than 40 made field goals (39). That marked the fourth time in their last five games they limited the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Philadelphia has knocked down at least 40 field goals in nine of its last 11 contests. James Harden is questionable to play on Wednesday but even if he can't go, I'm confident others can pick up the slack, most notably De'Anthony Melton who has scored in double-figures in five of the last seven games. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a long-term 113-155 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly appear to be headed in opposite directions right now with Minnesota off three straight losses and New York checking in following three consecutive wins. The T'Wolves not surprisingly weren't competitive on Saturday in Toronto, playing on the second of back-to-back nights after a double-overtime loss in Chicago the night previous. That loss to the Bulls was multi-faceted as Minnesota also lost Anthony Edwards to what appeared to be a serious ankle injury. It turns out that injury may not be as severe as first thought as he was out of the walking boot on Sunday. While he's unlikely to play on Monday, I still think the T'Wolves can hang. Minnesota has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since dropping a 120-107 decision at home against the Knicks back in November. Note that the T'Wolves are 30-18 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 points in that spot. They're also 15-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 points on average in that situation. While the Knicks are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games, they've won by more than eight points only six times over that stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. For a team that manages its schedule ultra-conservatively from a personnel standpoint, the situation doesn't get much better for the Clippers. They've been off for the last three days and after tonight's contest will get two more days off before playing at home again on Friday against Orlando. And the good news is, the Clips enter this contest playing some of their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight games to pull even with the Warriors in the Western Conference standings. Their offense is rolling, having knocked down 47, 45, 39 and 42 field goals over their last four games with the lone outlier coming in a 108-100 victory over Toronto in which they hoisted up only 71 field goal attempts. Defensively, Los Angeles is locked-in, most recently holding the Raptors and Knicks to just 37 and 32 made field goals, respectively. It's a different story at that end of the floor for the Warriors as they've employed a 'swinging-gate' style of defense, allowing 42, 50, 50, 43 and 46 made field goals over their last five contests, albeit aided by overtime in one of those games (against the Bucks). Offensively, they've been fine, as expected, but most of their damage has been done at home. The Warriors remain a woeful 7-26 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points. Interestingly, you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Warriors covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Clippers when one of those matchups took place in Los Angeles, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-12-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Lakers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks may be missing Jalen Brunson but there's still no reason for their offense to go in the tank the way it has over the last few games. Off a dreadful performance on this same court against the Clippers yesterday, I look for them to rebound on Sunday night against the Lakers. Los Angeles is coming off a win over Toronto on Friday night. That had more to do with the Raptors inability to lay the hammer down than anything else. Toronto had a number of opportunities to take full control of that contest but simply failed to do so. Off three straight losses, I expect the Knicks to play inspired basketball as they look to at least give themselves a shot at splitting this four-game road trip. Note that New York is 20-14 on the road this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 points. It also checks in an impressive 24-10 ATS when playing the second night of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by 5.1 points on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-10-23 | Raptors +1 v. Lakers | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Raptors who were fuming (feeling wronged by the officials) following Wednesday's loss on this same court against the Clippers. Toronto hasn't played all that poorly but is just 1-3 on its current road trip. We were actually on the Raptors in their lone victory - an overtime win in Washington last Saturday. I like the fact that Toronto has gotten back to its preferred style of basketball at the very least, holding six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raptors last contest marked the first time in four games that they didn't make good on at least 41 field goals. The Lakers are undoubtedly playing well but have also caught some favorable matchups lately, facing the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a reeling Warriors squad and a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant among others. Here, they get the Raps at virtually full strength. Note that Los Angeles is just 13-26 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a long-term 163-126 ATS when playing on the road off two or more losses in a row. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
03-10-23 | Blazers v. 76ers -8.5 | 119-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While they have managed to scrap their way to two wins in their last three games, the Blazers are not playing inspiring basketball right now. They've had a tough enough time just getting shots off, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. They've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. That's a recipe for disaster for a team that has allowed an incredible 28 straight opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals with 18 of those making good on 43 or more. The 76ers enter this game playing some of their best offensive basketball of the season after making good on 40 or more field goals in five straight games. They've also held 11 of their last 14 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Last time out, in what should have been a bad spot playing the second night of back-to-backs off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers, they held the Timberwolves to 34-of-86 shooting in a 23-point rout, on the road as three-point underdogs no less. We'll note that Portland is just 13-24 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here after the Sixers won by 10 in Portland back in January, outscored by an average margin of 9.6 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-08-23 | Cavs -2.5 v. Heat | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavs nearly got caught overlooking the undermanned Celtics who were in a back-to-back spot and resting a number of players on Monday in Cleveland. While the Cavs did ultimately win that game in overtime, they didn't cover the spread. That brought an end to their three-game ATS winning streak but I look for them to start a new one on Wednesday in Miami. The Heat wrapped up a two-game sweep of the Hawks at home two nights ago. We actually cashed with Atlanta in that game but were fortunate to do so thanks to a 'meaningless' buzzer-beater from the Hawks. Atlanta had that game in control before coughing it up in the fourth quarter, due in large part to its defensive ineptitude. The Cavs should offer a 'shock to the system' to the Heat in that regard, noting that they've held four straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Miami isn't playing at a pace that would appear to challenge that Cavs run, noting that the Heat have hoisted up 83 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games, making good on 42 or less in 12 consecutive contests. Contrast that with Cleveland, which enters on a streak of eight straight and 15 of its last 16 having knocked down 40 or more field goals. The last time these two teams met in late January the Heat prevailed as a four-point road underdog. Look for the revenge-minded Cavs to answer back here. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
03-06-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Heat | 128-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Heat after they delivered a 117-109 win in the front half of this two-game set against the Hawks. We haven't seen Miami post consecutive ATS victories since January 6th and 8th, going an ugly 7-16-1 ATS since. The Heat have done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities lately but I expect the Hawks to get loose here, noting that they had knocked down at least 40 field goals in eight straight and 14 of their last 15 games prior to Saturday's defeat. While Atlanta is just 14-19 on the road this season, it has been a 'tough out', outscored by an average margin of only 1.9 points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are 20-12 on their home floor but have only managed to outscore the opposition by 0.8 points per game on average. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics -5.5 | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Celtics to rebound off their embarrassing loss at home against the Nets on Friday - in a game they led by 28 points at one point. Meanwhile, the Celtics are coming off a last-second victory over the Heat in Miami on Friday. Here, we find the C's in a quick revenge spot after getting drilled 109-94 in New York on February 27th. In fact, it's a double-revenge spot as the Knicks also won 120-117 here in Boston back on January 26th. We'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 18-6 ATS when coming off an outright loss to a division opponent as six points or more, as is the case here. They're also 89-61 ATS when coming off a double-digit home loss. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
03-04-23 | Raptors -1 v. Wizards | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Washington at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors haven't lost consecutive games since January 30th and February 1st and I look for them to avoid that fate in the second half of this two-game set against the Wizards on Saturday. Note that Washington is just 11-22 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons. The Wizards are also a long-term 183-233 ATS when coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. The Raptors had their opportunities on Thursday night but simply couldn't take advantage, connecting on only 41-of-92 field goal attempts. They did hold Washington to just 84 field goal attempts - the third straight game in which they limited the opposition to that number or less. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
02-23-23 | Blazers v. Kings -5.5 | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We successfully faded the Kings in their last game before the All-Star break as they couldn't overcome a blistering shooting performance from the Suns in a double-digit loss in Phoenix. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Sacramento as it aims to bounce back on its home floor. We've seen wild swings in production from the Kings offense lately. They've knocked down 46 or more field goals in five of their last nine games. They were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in the other four contests. I do think they turn in a strong offensive performance here, noting that the Blazers have allowed 48, 47, 46, 47, 42 and 45 made field goals in their last six contests - consistently bad in other words. The Kings are by no means a defensive juggernaut but they have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Portland has been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. I mentioned the high ceiling of the Kings offense. Perhaps the opposite could be said of the Blazers, at least in recent weeks, as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. This is a double-revenge spot for the Kings as they look to get back at the Blazers after dropping a 115-108 decision at home against Portland back in October. Of note, Jerami Grant poured in a team-high 23 points, getting to the free throw line 13 times and knocking down all three of his three-point attempts, in that game. He's expected to return to the lineup on Thursday but hasn't played in just shy of two weeks. He's also struggled to recapture the form he displayed earlier in the season, scoring fewer than 20 points in seven of his last 11 contests. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
02-15-23 | Heat -1 v. Nets | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-14-23 | Kings v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Suns as they try to close the gap on the Kings in the Pacific Division standings (Phoenix currently sits two games back of Sacramento for top spot). Sacramento has been a terrific story this season but we've certainly seen some regression from the Kings lately as they've gone an even 6-6 over their last 12 games. We did get the result we wanted from them on Saturday as they successfully avenged a loss to the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back set at home, prevailing 133-128 in overtime. That sets us up with a reasonably short number in favor of the Suns at home here. While Phoenix is a little undermanned right now with Kevin Durant still sidelined and yet to make his team debut, I like the fact that it has gone back to its bread-and-butter, that being its defense, to right the ship. The Suns have won three of their last five games and are absolutely locked-in defensively right now having held four of those five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Suns opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, managing only 75, 81, 79, 95 and 85 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The outlier came in a game where they were severely short-handed on trade deadline day against the Hawks (Devin Booker missed that game as well). Save for that poor performance in Atlanta, the Suns have made good on more than 40 field goals in four of their last five and six of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Kings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 48, 44, 47, 43 and 47 (aided by overtime) field goals over their last five contests. In fact, Sacramento has allowed an incredible 20 straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. Offensively, the Kings are explosive but we've seen some inconsistency in that department lately as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three of their last six games. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Milwaukee at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a flyer on the Lakers here as they catch a generous helping of points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Everything went right for Milwaukee on Monday as it cruised to a 19-point win over the Blazers in Portland. The Bucks were certainly fortunate that Portland had an off night shooting as the Blazers actually got off 91 field goal attempts in that contest. Milwaukee is still giving up far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, allowing each of its last five opponents to hoist up at least 91 field goal attempts. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that brings solid offensive form to the table having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. Note that the Bucks enter this game off consecutive ATS wins which is notable as they haven't strung together three straight ATS victories since the first week of November. The Bucks are a long-term 113-166 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive straight-up wins, as is the case here. Despite their lopsided win in Portland on Monday, they're still just 14-12 SU on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 points. The Lakers are winless ATS over their last three games. That's their longest ATS losing streak since dropping the cash in five straight games from December 18th to 25th. While they're just 13-13 SU at home this season they've outscored opponents by 2.3 points on average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic +6.5 | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Denver at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We got the results we wanted two nights ago to set up this play on Thursday. The Nuggets avenged a loss in Minnesota two nights earlier with a resounding 146-112 win over the Timberwolves at home (they jumped ahead 49-19 after the first quarter) while the Magic dropped a 102-98 loss at home against the surging Knicks. It's important not to disregard the Magic, however, as this is a young team that is learning to win, having notched 10 victories in their last 14 games. Incredibly by today's NBA standards, Orlando has held eight of its last nine opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the only occasion where an opponent did get over that number, the Magic still won by seven points in Minnesota. The Magic are coming off a subpar offensive performance against a good Knicks defense two nights ago but it's worth noting they haven't been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games since December 3rd and 5th. The Nuggets are likely to re-tool prior to Thursday's trade deadline in an effort to 'keep up with the Joneses' in the Western Conference, which could also help our cause in terms of closing line value here. Here, we'll note that Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. Remember, when these two teams last met in Denver on January 15th, the Nuggets won by only three points as -10.5-point favorites. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
02-08-23 | Pacers +7 v. Heat | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We got the result we wanted from the Pacers on Sunday to set up this play as they fell in blowout fashion at home against the Cavs. I don't think Miami has any business laying so many points at home, noting that while it has gone 17-9 on this floor this season, it has only outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. This particular series has been as close as it gets in three previous meetings this season, with those three contests decided by a grand total of 10 points, with Indiana winning twice, including a 111-108 victory here in Miami on December 23rd. Here, we'll note that the Pacers are a long-term 54-32 ATS when coming off a home loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
02-07-23 | Thunder +7.5 v. Lakers | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this bounce-back spot sets up for the Thunder as they come off last night's drubbing at the hands of the Warriors in San Francisco. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is just one game removed from a 153-point explosion in a rout of the Rockets on Saturday. Being brought back to Earth by the defending champion Warriors might not have been the worst thing for the young Thunder. Los Angeles has been playing some of its best basketball but is in a bit of a tough spot here, returning home following a five-game road trip, noting that it is just 13-12, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points here this season. With no player seeing 30 or more minutes of action last night, I'm not as worried about the back-to-back spot for the Thunder. This is a team that has been outscored by just 3.3 points on average on the road this season and I expect them to respond favorably following last night's blowout defeat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
02-06-23 | Spurs +11 v. Bulls | Top | 104-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-03-23 | Blazers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter this game red hot ATS, although in the case of the Blazers, getting over the hump in that regard has proven difficult. They're coming off consecutive ATS victories (and four in their last five games) but haven't reeled off three straight ATS wins since December 10th to 14th. In that case, the third ATS win came in a rout of the lowly Spurs. The Wizards check in riding a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Impressively, the last four wins came on the road. They won by 21 points last time out in San Antonio and that's notable as they've gone 24-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Note that Washington has held seven of its last nine opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While that's not all that impressive on the face of it, keep in mind, seven of those nine opponents got off 90 or more field goal attempts. Here, the Wizards are unlikely to face such a shooting barrage as the Blazers have hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 11 of their last 12 contests. On the flip side, Portland has proven extremely vulnerable defensively, allowing 11 straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in four of their last five contests. While these non-conference matchups sometimes leave teams feeling a little flat, I don't think that will be the case for the Wizards, not after they dropped both meetings in this series last season, including a home loss where they were favored by seven points. Look for revenge-minded Washington to gets its payback here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
02-01-23 | Warriors v. Wolves +3.5 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the revenge-minded T'Wolves on Wednesday as they look to get back at the Warriors after dropping the first meeting of the season by 23 points back in late November. Minnesota checks in off a loss in the second game of a two-game set with the Kings. Sacramento made the necessary adjustments after dropping the opener, knocking down a whopping 47 field goals in a 118-111 win on Monday. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had held three consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Minnesota enters this game having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight and 11 of its last 12 games overall. It's a similar story for Golden State offensively, but at the other end of the floor, it has struggled. The Warriors have yielded 42 or more made field goals in eight straight games and 40+ in 14 consecutive contests. Here, we'll note that Golden State is just 17-30 ATS when playing on the road off a win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.4 points in that situation. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
01-31-23 | Heat v. Cavs -5 | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat were playing with a thin margin for error during their recent three-game winning streak. They got off a combined 38 more field goal attempts than the opposition over that stretch, yet still only won those three contests by a grand total of 12 points. Perhaps not surprisingly, they got caught by the Hornets on Sunday, still getting off 10 more field goal attempts than Charlotte but falling by five points. Now Miami, with its woeful 19-30-2 ATS record, heads to Cleveland to face a Cavs squad that just welcomed back Donovan Mitchell and rolled to a 122-99 win over the Clippers last time out. Cleveland has now scored 100 points or more in 13 straight games which is an accomplishment when you consider the fairly deliberate pace they tend to play at. The Cavs have knocked down 40 or more field goals in six of their last seven games despite hoisting up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven of those contests. On the flip side, few teams do it better defensively, with Cleveland having limited five straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Heat can of course play some elite defense as well, I'm just not convinced their offense will be along for the ride on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Cavs are 27-14 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when following up a double-digit home victory, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
01-30-23 | Magic +10.5 v. 76ers | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Magic on Friday in Miami and then got the result we wanted in a lopsided loss to the Bulls on Saturday, setting Orlando up as a significant underdog against the red hot 76ers on Monday. The Magic had a tough night at the office against the Bulls on Saturday, not all that surprising as they were in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation and it showed as they allowed Chicago to knock down 48-of-81 field goal attempts. Here, I'm confident we'll see Orlando rebound, noting that it remains a terrific 7-2 ATS over its last nine games. Philadelphia has reeled off seven straight wins, however, I do think it could prove difficult to get up for this Monday night affair, noting that it has won 10 straight matchups in this series. The 76ers have incredibly shot better than 50% from the field in six straight games. That's masked the fact that they've struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 43 or more made field goals in six of their last eight contests, despite seven of those opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-29-23 | Pelicans +10.5 v. Bucks | 110-135 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. These teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pelicans having lost seven games in a row and the Bucks having won five of their last six contests. With that being said, I expect New Orleans to give Milwaukee a run on Sunday night. Based on the way the Pelicans are playing right now, it's not easy to beat them by a considerable margin. Three of their last four losses have come by single-digits while the other came by 10 points (last night against Washington - a game where Jonas Valanciunas was ejected early). New Orleans has held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time one of its opponents made good on more than 40 field goals. Offensively, the Pelicans have sputtered, still missing Zion Williamson while Brandon Ingram is being eased back from injury. They should at least be given plenty of opportunities here, as the Bucks have allowed 14 of their last 16 opponents to get off at least 87 FG attempts. All told, Milwaukee has covered the spread in four of its last eight games overall. Of those ATS wins, only two came by more than 10 points. Also note that they shot the lights out in all four spread-covering victories (52% or better from the field). I think we see the Pelicans offer some resistance here. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive wins but both of those games could have gone either way as they beat the Pelicans by four and the Celtics by three. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown off the big win over the Celtics on Tuesday (they were without Jimmy Butler in that game). The pace alone in Miami's recent contests makes grabbing a generous helping of points an attractive proposition. The Heat's last three games have seen a total of 149, 158 and 168 field goal attempts. Miami checks in having knocked down 33, 35 and 34 field goals over that stretch. In stark contrast, Orlando is as healthy as it has been all season and it shows - at least offensively. The Magic have made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games - the lone outlier came in a contest where they still scored 123 points in a double-digit win over New Orleans. Yes, Orlando has gone an ugly 6-17 SU on the road this season but it is a far more respectable 11-11-1 ATS. Compare that with the Heat, who are 16-9 SU but just 8-15-2 ATS on their home floor. When you break down the numbers, the Heat actually don't hold much of an advantage at all in this matchup. Orlando has knocked down one less field goal per game on the road compared to Miami at home, but has done so on two fewer field goal attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Magic yield two more made field goals per game on the road compared to the Heat at home, but do so on four additional FG attempts given up per contest. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 4-14 ATS when coming off an ATS victory this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points in that situation. They're also just 5-15 ATS when following up consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.5 points on average in that spot. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
01-25-23 | Nuggets +8 v. Bucks | Top | 99-107 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I understand the logic behind the Nuggets being substantial underdogs here. After all, the Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot, on the road, while the Bucks return home after putting up a ridculous 150 points in a win over the Pistons two nights ago. They're not all that flashy by any means but the Nuggets have won an incredible 20 of their last 24 games. Based on the style Denver is employing right now, it's going to be tough for anyone to beat it by a considerable margin. The Nuggets have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They've limited 11 consecutive opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While Denver has made good on only 36 and 39 field goals in its last two contests that had a lot to do with the snail's pace those two games were played at. Here, they'll have a chance to get loose against a Bucks squad that has allowed their last six opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43, 46, 48 and 43 field goals, going a modest 3-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just returned two nights ago but this is a team that has figured out how to win without him in recent years. Here, Milwaukee will be missing an underrated contributor in Bobby Portis after he suffered a knee injury. Note that the Bucks are just 29-48 ATS when returning home off a road win over a division opponent going all the way back to 1996. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
01-23-23 | Grizzlies -1 v. Kings | 100-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Sacramento at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Grizzlies staged an incredible second half comeback, they still fell short in Phoenix last night, marking their second straight loss to open their current road trip. I do like their chances of getting back in the win column as they head to Sacramento to face the Kings, who just lost for the first time in seven games on Saturday against Philadelphia. Despite last night's undesirable result, Memphis continues to play terrific defensive basketball, holding four of its last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It's a much different story for the Kings as they've allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. To find the last nine times the Grizzlies have allowed the opposition to eclipse that number in that department you would have to go all the way back to November 18th. Offensively, both teams have been thriving. Despite the dreadful start they got off to last night, the Grizzlies still managed to connect on 40 or more field goals for the 13th straight game. Here, we'll note that Memphis is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an incredible average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Grizz are also 13-3 ATS after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 15.3 points on average in that spot. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Having strung together consecutive wins - as healthy as they've been in a quite a while with both Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan available - and with each of their next four games coming against Eastern Conference opponents, this is where the Bulls need to get on a run if they want to put themselves in good position to reach the playoffs (they currently sit in 10th place in the conference). Tonight's opponent, the Hawks, are one of the teams Chicago is looking up at in the Eastern Conference standings. I like what I've seen from the Bulls lately. Save for a poor showing against the red hot Thunder, they've held four of their last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have certainly rounded into form offensively, knocking down 48 and 50 field goals themselves over their last two contests. The Hawks have also been hot offensively but their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. Atlanta checks in having allowed its last four opponents to make good on 43, 44, 49 and 45 field goals. Keep in mind, the Hawks are just 11-13 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points per contest. The Bulls check in 12-10 at the United Center, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 points on average. To find the last time Atlanta won a game here in Chicago, you would have to go back to December of 2020. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
01-22-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We just saw this matchup on Monday as the Grizzlies rolled to a 30-point home victory. While the Suns would certainly like to get some quick revenge here at home, I don't feel they're well-positioned to do so. Note that Phoenix has been getting healthier with Cam Johnson returning this past Thursday. In fact, the Suns have now won consecutive games after posting a five-point victory against the Pacers last night. But now they're in a tough back-to-back spot with a number of key contributors questionable to play due to injury management or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just one day removed from a tough one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles. They remain locked-in defensively, having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Grizz continue to roll along offensively, making good on an incredible 43 or more field goals in 12 consecutive games. In fact, their 43-for-102 shooting performance against the Lakers on Friday was their low-water mark going all the way back to December 27th. The Suns have been lagging defensively. Prior to last night they had allowed their last four opponents to knock down 48, 47, 52 and 43 field goals. Last night's opponent, the Pacers, quite simply had an off night shooting as they actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts but only knocked down 36 of them. Usually stingy defensively when full strength, Phoenix has now allowed four of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts. I expect the Grizzlies to take advantage on Sunday. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-21-23 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. There's still a cloud of uncertainty around the status of the stars of both of these teams with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell questionable to play in Saturday's fourth meeting of the season. It sounds like there's a better chance that Giannis will return than Mitchell but regardless, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cavs at home. Cleveland fell in stunning fashion against a Warriors squad that was resting its stars last night. Needless to say, I think the Cavs took a win for granted given the undermanned nature of the Warriors in that one. I don't expect Cleveland to have any trouble regrouping for a visit from one of the NBA's elite teams in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off consecutive near-perfect offensive showings in wins over the Pacers and Raptors at home. Lost in the Bucks recent offensive success is the fact that their defensive play hasn't been up to par. They've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43 and 46 field goals. They've also had little success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have limited seven of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. They're allowing just 39 made field goals per contest at home this season, a big reason they've gone 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS here in Cleveland. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
01-20-23 | Nets v. Jazz -6.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Friday. There's always a risk of looking foolish when backing a team one night, losing, and then fading them the next night. I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong, however, and I was off the mark with the Nets last night in Phoenix. That was an ideal bounce-back spot for Brooklyn after an embarrassing loss in San Antonio to open its current road trip (we did win with the 'under' in that game). What we saw, though, was a rather listless performance from the Nets, falling behind by 20 points before staging a 'false rally' in the fourth quarter to make the final score more respectable than it otherwise would have been. The Nets got about as much as they could expect from Kyrie Irving as he played through a calf injury, scoring 30 points in the loss. Curiously, Irving played 38 minutes in what was a lopsided affair most of the way. Utah checks in off a blowout win over the Clippers two nights ago. Lauri Markkanen continued his red hot tear to pace the Jazz offense on that night. Utah is now 4-1 SU in its last five games and riding a three-game ATS winning streak. While it has been red hot offensively, knocking down 43 or more field goals in six of its last eight games, it has also seemingly righted the ship defensively, holding four of its last five opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Nets have been hanging tough defensively but offensively they're just not the same without Kevin Durant in the lineup. Last night marked the first time in six games that they eclipsed the 40 field goal mark and that was only thanks to the Suns letting down their guard leading by 20 points entering the fourth quarter. If the Nets aren't shooting the lights out, it's a struggle to put up a lot of points as they average just 84 field goal attempts per game this season. The Jazz average five more field goal attempts per contest by comparison, and eight additional tries per game from beyond the arc. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
01-19-23 | Nets -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Nets are fresh off an embarrassing loss in San Antonio two nights ago (we won with the 'under' in that game). That marked their third straight loss although perhaps it was to be expected with Kyrie Irving sidelined (remember Kevin Durant is on the shelf as well). Kyrie is expected to return from that one-game absence on Thursday. The Suns will likely have Cam Johnson back and it sounds like there's an outside chance that Chris Paul could be back in the lineup as well. I simply see a Phoenix squad that is completely out of sorts right now, and will likely remain that way until its regulars get back up to speed. Note that the Suns have been torched for 48, 47 and 52 made field goals over their last three games. While they had been at least limiting their opponents' pace for a stretch, they've now allowed three of their last four foes to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. It's a much different story for Brooklyn. It has held five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and three of its last five to 38 or less. Offensively, it's been a grind without KD in the lineup but I expect scoring opportunities to be in abundance against a listless Suns defense on Thursday. Note that Phoenix took both meetings between these two teams last season. Look for the revenge-minded Nets to rebound here, noting they've gone 25-10 ATS when playing on the road following an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points on average in that situation. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
01-15-23 | Thunder +4.5 v. Nets | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. It's going to take quite an effort to derail the Thunder given how they've been playing on this road trip. They check in off five straight ATS wins, knocking down 44 or more field goals in all five contests. In the same vein, they've held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Meanwhile, the Nets are adjusting to life without Kevin Durant once again. They've made good on 39 or fewer field goals in three straight games. While Brooklyn owns the better overall record this season, Oklahoma City has been the far better bet, going 27-16 ATS. Having won by 21 points on this floor last January there's no intimidation factor at play. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
01-14-23 | Celtics v. Hornets +8 | 122-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I see this as an incredibly difficult spot for the Celtics to get up for as they look for their sixth straight victory after opening this road trip with a double-digit win in Brooklyn on Thursday. Keep in mind, Boston already took the first meeting between these two teams by a whopping 35 points back in late November. It catches Charlotte on a three-game losing streak and a woeful 1-6 SU over its last seven games. The Hornets actually haven't covered a spread in four games - the last time they did we were on board as they pulled off a stunning blowout win over the Bucks in Milwaukee. In stark contrast to the C's, the Hornets should have no trouble at all getting up for this front half of a two-game home set against Boston. Note that they'll be looking to avenge three straight losses suffered at the hands of the C's. While Boston is a long-term 87-119 ATS when coming off a road victory by 10 points or more, Charlotte is 199-156 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS. Noting that the Celtics are now without Jaylen Brown as he deals with an injury while the Hornets were without LaMelo Ball the last time these two teams squared off in November, I think we see a game that's closer than expected on Saturday. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
01-14-23 | Bucks +1.5 v. Heat | 95-111 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Miami at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bucks dropped the front half of this two-game set in Miami on Thursday in what was essentially a throw-away game as they sat Giannis Antetokounmpo among others in an eventual six-point loss. That was a back-to-back situation off a win in Atlanta the night previous (which marked their second straight victory to open their current road trip). It should be a different story on Saturday as the Bucks look to take this opportunity to get right back at the Heat, who haven't won more than two games in a row since a four-game winning streak (that included victories over the lowly Rockets and Spurs) back in mid-December. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
01-13-23 | Thunder v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 124-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Thunder exercised some demons against the 76ers in Philadelphia last night, winning in convincing, blowout fashion as a considerable underdog (we won with Oklahoma City in that game as well). Here, I believe they'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort as they play the second of back-to-back nights against the Bulls in Chicago. Chicago is fresh off a 100-97 loss in Washington two nights ago to wrap up a brief 0-2 road trip. A return home should help the Bulls cause, noting that they're 11-9 SU at the United Center and will be looking for their third straight victory in the Windy City on Friday. Of course, the Bulls will likely be without Demar Derozan for a second straight game after he exited Monday's loss in Boston with an injured quad muscle. Zach Lavine suffered a hand contusion in Wednesday's loss in Washington but is expected to be good to go on Friday. While I'm certainly not banking on it, I do think this could be a 'load management' spot for Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a back-to-back situation. He has suited up for two back-to-backs previously this season but sat out the front half of the team's most recent two-game in two-night set on January 3rd. Note that the Thunder will be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, in five different cities on Friday night. While Oklahoma City did prevail last night in Philadelphia, that win snapped a six-game road losing streak. The Thunder are just 6-14 SU away from home this season. Also note that they're a miserable 3-14 ATS when coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 12.7 points in that situation. The Bulls are a long-term 121-90 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
01-12-23 | Mavs -3 v. Lakers | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. While the Lakers check in 5-1 over their last six games, I can't help but feel another slide is right around the corner. Their recent five-game winning streak had everything to do with their red hot shooting. They caught fire for a week or so but couldn't keep it going last time out as they connected on just 44% of their field goal attempts in a double-digit loss in Denver. I expect to see some carry-over effect from that poor performance here. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, to open its current five-game road trip. No team wants to go winless in its two-game stop-over in Los Angeles, especially given the current vulnerable state of both the Clippers and Lakers. Here, we'll note that the Mavericks are 11-2 ATS when playing on the road off an upset loss away from home over the last three seasons. Dallas has outscored the opposition by an impressive average margin of 13.0 points in that situation. The Lakers continue to give up way too many easy buckets, having allowed 42 or more made field goals in an incredible 13 consecutive games. In stark contrast, Dallas has allowed just four of its last 10 opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
01-12-23 | Bucks v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This is a classic fade spot for the Heat as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Atlanta last night. In fact, Milwaukee will be looking for third straight win to open its current road trip. However, in a back-to-back spot and knowing it will have another shot at the Heat here in South Beach on Saturday, I'm not convinced we see the Bucks best effort on Thursday. Miami was undermanned but prevailed by a single point against Oklahoma City two nights ago. Here, the Heat should have Bam Adebayo back on the floor as they look to secure a second straight victory. Despite the ATS loss against the Thunder, the Heat remain a solid 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests. They're just 6-14 ATS at home this season, laying inflated numbers on most nights, but that's not the case here. At the very least, the Heat have managed to outscore the opposition by 0.3 points on average on their home floor (which is more than can be said about the Bucks on the road, as you'll read below). Milwaukee has been a better bet on the road than the Heat have been at home, but it still just 8-10 ATS on the highway, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points. Note that Milwaukee has gone a woeful 21-37 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Celtics | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. While most expected the Pelicans to take a nose-dive without Zion Williamson, that hasn't necessarily been the case. There was the 'shock to the system' game immediately following the Zion injury as the Pelicans fell by 15 points in Memphis. However, since then, they've lost by nine points against the red hot 76ers, won by 11 vs. Houston, lost by only six against the blistering Nets, lost by 10 against the Mavs in Dallas and most recently rolled to a 25-point rout of the Wizards. In other words, blowout losses have been few and far between. The Celtics aren't exactly setting the world on fire right now, in fact they're just 1-5 ATS over their last six games. This is actually a triple-revenge spot for the Pelicans as they've dropped all three meetings with the Celtics since the start of last season, including a 117-109 loss back in November. Here, we'll note that New Orleans is a solid 24-10 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Mavericks against the Zion-less Pelicans here, with the latter finding themselves in a difficult back-to-back situation off last night's six-point home loss to the Nets. New Orleans has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the campaign, going just 5-8 ATS over its last 13 contests. The Mavs have dropped the cash in three straight games heading in and got blown out by the Celtics on their home floor two nights ago. I look for them to turn the tide here, noting that they're 23-11 ATS when playing at home after scoring 105 points or less in their last game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition buy 9.8 points on average in that spot. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Heat v. Suns +1.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I believe this is a 'wrong team favored' situation as the Heat head to Phoenix on Friday night. Miami had its brief two-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Lakers in Los Angeles two nights ago. Here, they'll face a desperate Suns squad that has lost four straight and seven of their last eight games overall. I do think Phoenix carries some confidence into this game as it gave Cleveland all it could handle in a 90-88 road loss two nights ago. The Suns have gone back to work defensively, holding four straight opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts and their last two foes to just 36 and 30 made field goals. Phoenix has undoubtedly had this rematch with Miami circled on its calendar after dropping a one-point decision in South Beach back in November. Here, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 3-13 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Suns are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers got roasted by the Nuggets in Denver last night in a game that was never competitive. That makes it four consecutive losses for Los Angeles, three in a row ATS, but I look for it to bounce back on Friday night in Minnesota. The T'Wolves check in off two straight victories, which comes on the heels of six consecutive defeats. Minnesota is just 11-9 on its home floor this season, only outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.6 points. Off last night's less-than-taxing affair (Paul George played 13 minutes while Kawhi Leonard saw 18 minutes of floor time), look for the Clips to rebound here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Hornets +11 v. Bucks | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Bucks enter this game off consecutive wins both SU and ATS (we were on board for the first of those two victories) but they're just 2-3 ATS when laying double-digits this season and I expect them to have their hands full with the lowly Hornets on Friday night. Charlotte has lost three straight games both SU and ATS. Sometimes hitting the road isn't a bad thing and I believe that will be the case here after a 1-3 homestand. While Charlotte lost by 24 points against Memphis last time out, it's worth noting that it hasn't dropped consecutive games by double-digits since December 9th and 11th. That's only happened three times previously this season which is notable considering how many games the Hornets have lost (29). The Bucks are only outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 points this season and while that number grows to 8.3 points here at home, that's still considerably lower than the pointspread we're working with tonight. On the flip side, as bad as things have gone for the Hornets, they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.1 points and that number only rises to 7.3 points on the road. In five meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season, Milwaukee won by double-digits only once. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Knicks v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Raptors are coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive display against Milwaukee two nights ago as they shot worse than 33% from the field yet still somehow rallied to force overtime in an eventual three-point loss. They check into this game off consecutive SU and ATS losses but I'm confident they'll bounce back against the division-rival Knicks on Friday. Note that New York has won three games in a row but those victories all came against down-trodden squads in the Rockets, Suns and Spurs, with the last two coming on their home floor. They're still just 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight games. You would have to go back 12 meetings here in Toronto - all the way to 2015 - to find the last time they won a game in Toronto. While laying points with the Raptors given their current state seems a little dicey, they've managed to cover the spread in all but two of their 16 straight-up victories this season, and both of those wins still came by four or more points. While the Raps are as healthy as they've been all season, the Knicks are without one of their best players, R.J. Barrett. This is a critical six-game homestand for the Raptors as it will likely decide whether or not they'll be 'selling' at the trade deadline. All is not lost after dropping the opener, I look for them to bounce back here. Take Toronto (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |