Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This line is moving in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. The 76ers clearly took the Hawks lightly in the opener of this series on Sunday, falling behind big early as the Hawks simply couldn't miss in the first half. They did rally to make a game of it, however, showing a bit of Atlanta's inexperience in the process. Here, I look for the Sixers to bounce back with a convincing win. Note that Philadelphia has gone 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of six points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.9 points. Better still, the Sixers are 21-8 ATS at home after losing two of their last three games, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Atlanta is still a losing team on the road this season at 19-21 and checks in 20-34 ATS after winning consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, outscored by 5.8 points on average in that spot. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Travelling this weekend so my apologies for the somewhat brief analysis for this play. Let’s take a shot with the Bucks here as we go against the narrative that the Nets are invincible after taking care of the Celtics with ease in the opening round. This does promise to be a long, hard-fought series after the Bucks ‘slayed the dragon’ so to speak by taking down last year’s playoff nemesis, the Miami Heat, in an opening round sweep. The Nets have gone with a smaller lineup since dealing rim protector Jarrett Allen and I do think that leaves them vulnerable against a Bucks squad that crashes the boards relentlessly. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The road team has won all five games in this series so far but perhaps that shouldn't come as a big surprise as both teams have proven to be 'road warriors' this season with the Clippers going 23-15 and the Mavs posting a 24-15 record away from home. I look for that trend to continue on Friday as this will be the only first round series that goes the full seven games. Los Angeles actually falls into an excellent situation here having gone 14-2 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.5 points (!), after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS over the last two seasons (as is the case here). The Clips are 34-20 ATS after a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.5 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Mavs check in a miserable 6-17 ATS when returning home off a road win over the last two seasons, outscored by a considerable average margin of 6.5 points. The fourth win in a series is generally the toughest one to get (don't tell that to the Suns) and I expect the Mavs to find that out on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The road team has won all four games in this series so far and while I'm not sure if that trend will continue on Wednesday, I do think this line will prove too high. I like the fact that there have been two days off between games here as that will have served to give Mavs injured star Luke Doncic a little extra time to get treatment on his neck and heal up heading into this one. Of course, the Mavs have been a better team off a loss as well, particularly on the road where they've gone 26-15 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. On 39 occasions where the Clippers have come off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, they've actually been outscored by 0.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.1 points per game after losing two or more games in a row ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 43 times. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks have been quite simply outclassed in the last two games in this series but if there were ever a time for them to punch back, this would be it as they face elimination on Wednesday night at MSG. The situation sets up well for New York here. Note that Atlanta has gone just 11-22 when heading on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 7.5 points on average in the process. Worse still, the Hawks are 18-34 ATS when coming off two or more wins in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks are an incredible 18-2 ATS when at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, as is the case at the time of writing. They're also 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points. After getting blown out in the last two games it's not going to be difficult at all for the Knicks to get up for this one. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Suns are in tough right now with Chris Paul battling a painful shoulder injury that has rendered him ineffective over the last two games - both losses. However, with an extra day off between games, I would expect CP3 to at the very least contribute more than he did in Game 3, while I also expect the rest of the Suns to step up off back-to-back losses. Note that Phoenix has been an excellent road team this season, going 24-13 while outscoring the opposition by 2.2 points per game. They're in a fine spot here, having gone 23-11 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.4 points on average in that situation. They've also been a tremendous bounce-back team this season, going 21-8 ATS off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 8.7 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in a miserable 4-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by a narrow margin of 2.7 points per game in that situation. We're certainly taking a bit of a chance here as Chris Paul's health remains in serious question. However, at the current number, I believe Phoenix is worth a shot in this critical Game 4 matchup. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the Jazz in Sunday's outright loss in Game 1 against the Grizzlies but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they look to bounce back and even the series at a game apiece. I think Utah was caught a little flat-footed emotionally after Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch in Game 1. All indications leading up to the series-opener were that he would be good to go, but that changed on Sunday afternoon. Now Utah is prepared to move forward without Mitchell, although it does once again sound like he'll likely suit up for Game 2 on Wednesday. Just as they have all season, the Grizzlies exceeded expectations and rode the momentum from their play-in tournament victory to a 112-109 win here in Salt Lake City on Sunday. Note that the Jazz have gone 17-5 ATS when playing consecutive home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.5 points. They're also a solid 63-41 ATS the last 104 times they've played at home off an outright loss as a home favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, this has been a bit of a tough spot for the Grizzlies defensively, playing on the road after winning four of their last five games as they've given up 120.3 points per game. I expect a big response from the Jazz here, noting that they've gone 31-6 here at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points on average. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks took the opener of this series on Saturday but I look for the Clippers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Tuesday. Remember, these two teams met in the bubble in Orlando last August as the Clippers prevailed 4-2. In that series, the Clips did a terrific job bouncing back from their two losses, securing victories by eight and 43-point margins (yes, they won the latter contest 154-111). That's pretty much par for the course when it comes to the Clippers as they've been a terrific bounce-back team, having gone 33-19 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.8 points in that situation. Better still, they're 13-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.8 points in that spot. Dallas is an excellent team and certainly has a shot at winning this series, as evidenced by its convincing Game 1 victory, however I expect the Mavs to have a tough time matching the Clips intensity here after accomplishing their goal of earning at least a split in Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the Heat in the opener of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Bucks slogan is 'Fear the Deer', there was really nothing to fear for Miami in Game 1 of this series on Saturday. The Heat were right there for four quarters plus overtime and only fell short thanks to an incredible shot by Khris Middleton in the final second of OT. The fact that they were right there should be encouraging as the Heat certainly didn't play their best game - not by a longshot. So many easy shots - within 4-6 feet of the basket - were missed. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo just couldn't buy a basket at times, missing a number of layups that could have easiliy been the difference in the game. I expect them to make amends here on Monday. Note that the Heat remain a winning team on the road this season and they'll certainly want to earn a split here in Milwaukee, knowing just how difficult it would be to come back from a 2-0 deficit, needing four wins in five games - a nearly insurmountable task against a team as good as the Bucks. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -2 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel this is a short line to back the Celtics here at home as they try to make amends for what has been a very disappointing season and earn their way into the playoffs with a victory here on Tuesday night. Boston does check in sporting a 21-15 home record and will have its full compliment of players back in the lineup, with the exception of Jaylen Brown, after missing a number of key starters in its last couple of regular season games. The Wizards have expended a ton of energy just to get to this point and I can't help but feel there's a bit of an exhale here, knowing they have two chances to advance given this is the 7-8 matchup in the East. Note that the Wiz are just 15-21 on the road this season, just 5-13 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, outscored by an average margin of 5.9 points in that situation this season. They're also just 18-34 ATS on the road following an ATS loss over the last three seasons while Boston checks in 8-1 ATS after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game in that spot. The C's have also won four straight meetings against the Wizards here in Boston. Take Boston (9*). | |||||||
05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks -13 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks managed to wrap up a two-game sweep of the Wizards at home last night although it took a big fourth quarter rally to do so. Atlanta certainly didn't bring its 'A' game, perhaps a product of already having taken care of Washington on two previous occasions this season. The Hawks enter this game having shot better than 50% from the field in five of their last six games and they should absolutely go off against a Magic squad that is simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando has been bullied lately, allowing three of its last four opponents to shoot 48.5% or better while giving up 51 or more rebounds in three straight contests entering tonight's game. Last time out the Magic actually held the Bucks to 42.6% shooting but still lost by 12 points (they did manage to cover the spread). The Magic simply can't match the Hawks depth, as we saw in the most recent meeting, when Atlanta cruised to a 16-point win on April 20th. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Pelicans in their last game as they rallied to defeat the Warriors and split a two-game set at home. New Orleans checks in 5-1 ATS over its last six games but let's face it, this team isn't really going anywhere sitting six games under .500 in 11th place in the Western Conference. With Brandon Ingram sidelined and Zion Williamson having aggravated an injury to his hand last time out, I could certainly see them folding the tent should they find themselves trailing by any considerable margin in the fourth quarter tonight. Philadelphia has been pouring it on lately, winning six straight games, scoring more than 120 points in four of those contests. The 76ers and healthy and firing on all cylinders, having shot better than 53% from the field in four of their last six games while holding the opposition to 45.2% or worse shooting in all six of those contests. I don't expect any sort of letdown from Philadelphia here after it lost by seven points on the road against New Orleans (as a five-point favorite) in the last matchup between these two teams less than a month ago. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors took the first game of this two-game set in New Orleans last night but I like the Pelicans to bounce back here on Tuesday. Note that New Orleans has outscored the opposition by 3.2 points on average when coming off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Pelicans also check in averaging 119.3 points per game when revenging a double-digit loss this season. The Warriors are just 10-22 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that spot. They're also just 3-11 ATS after posting consecutive wins this season, outscored by 7.3 points per game in that situation. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We haven't faded Oklahoma City much during its current 3-14-1 ATS slide but I will do so on Tuesday as the Thunder limp into Boston following back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Boston is expected to be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum but I don't expect it to roll over in their absence. The Celtics are coming off an 0-2 trip to Brooklyn and Charlotte which included an ugly 21-point rout at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon. Note that Boston checks in a perfect 9-0 ATS the last nine times it has come off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 17.2 points in that situation. The C's average north of 125 points per game in that spot and should be able to feast on a Thunder squad that have allowed their last two opponents to shoot 51.6% and 54.7% from the field. Despite Sunday's poor showing, the Celtics are fairly locked-in defensively, having held five of their last eight opponents to 45.6% or worse shooting. Note that Oklahoma City averages just 94 points and loses by an average margin of 17.2 points when playing on the road after giving up 120 points or more this season. The Celtics took the first matchup in this series this season by 17 points in Oklahoma City back on March 27th and I expect a similar outcome here. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This would appear to be a pretty obvious fade spot for the Grizzlies as they wrap up a long, successful seven-game road trip with a second stop in Denver in less than a week. However, the Grizz have done nothing but impress and off another big performance in a win over the Blazers yesterday, I look for them to keep it rolling on Monday. While this is certainly a tough back-to-back spot for Memphis, it is worth noting that it managed its starters minutes well in yesterday's game, with no one playing more than 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas just returned yesterday after missing time due to a concussion so he should have fresh legs for this one. The Grizz know they can hang with the Nuggets having taken Denver to overtime (without Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks) just last week. Meanwhile, Denver was already without Jamal Murray and is now missing key secondary scorer Will Barton as well. The Nuggets shot the lights out in a lopsided win over the lowly Rockets on Saturday but that actually sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they've come off a 55% or better shooting performance, outscored by an average margin of 4.3 points in that spot. They're also just 23-38 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. The Grizzlies are quite simply the hottest bet in the league and locked in defensively right now, having held their last three opponents to 45.2%, 47.9% and 37.1% shooting. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Most have written off the Hawks with Trae Young out for an indefinite period with an ankle injury. However, Atlanta thrived in its first game without its superstar, delivering a 118-103 win over the Heat on Friday. Here, the Hawks catch the Bucks in a somewhat favorable spot with Milwaukee its second of back-to-back games after wrapping up a two-game sweep of the 76ers with a blowout win yesterday afternoon. While the Hawks lost Young, they did recently get Danilo Gallinari back from injury while Clint Capela could also return on Sunday, although I'm making this play assuming he can't go. The Bucks shot the lights out in the last two games against an undermanned 76ers squad but prior to that they had shot worse than 49% from the field in seven straight games. Note that they're just 18-32 ATS when on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 3.3 points in that spot. They hadn't been playing tough defense at all prior to yesterday's win and certainly caught a big break in that one with the Sixers missing both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in what amounted to a throwaway game for Philadelphia. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team all season and check in having held 11 of their last 13 opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They're allowing just 110 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season. The Hawks will have revenge on their minds in this one having dropped both previous meetings against the Bucks this season, including a 120-109 setback in a poor all-around showing at home on April 15th. Note that the Hawks are 25-14 ATS at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when at home revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Grizzlies in their outright underdog victory in Milwaukee on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them here as they head to Denver in what I consider a throw-away game. Note that Memphis has now won three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS but will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion on Monday and could also be missing Dillon Brooks, among others. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Grizz as they still have four games left on their current road trip, with a four-game in six-night stretch on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets lost Jamal Murray for the season with a torn ACL last week but proceeded to reel off consecutive wins in blowout fashion over the Heat and Rockets. While Memphis is playing its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, this will be just the Nuggets third game in the last six nights, with two of those contests coming here at home. Denver checks in 18-10 at Ball Arena this season, outscoring opponents by six points per game. The Nuggets have taken consecutive meetings in this series in Denver, going 1-0-1 ATS along the way. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies will have revenge on their minds after they suffered a heart-breaking last-second loss against the Bucks on their home floor back on March 4th and I like their chances of taking Milwaukee down to the wire again here. While the Bucks are back home following a three-game road trip (in which they went a perfect 3-0) and had an off day yesterday, this is still a tough scheduling spot as this will be their 11th game since March 29th, in nine different cities no less. The Grizzlies are in a back-to-back spot, making the short trip from Chicago, but had the benefit of a three-game homestand prior to that. Of course, Memphis has been playing excellent basketball, having gone 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. The Grizzlies have certainly been a streaky team and set up well here given their 14-5 ATS mark after winning consecutive games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks check in just 21-33 ATS when coming off three more more consecutive victories over the last two seasons. I'll also point out that the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of just 0.5 points when coming off a game in which they gave up 115 points or more, as is the case here off last night's 126-115 win in Chicago. Memphis has certainly held its own against the Bucks, going 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings, including an outright victory in its last trip to Milwaukee. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Some will be expecting a letdown from the 76ers here as they come off Wednesday's wire-to-wire win over the Nets but I don't see it happening. Perhaps that game wasn't quite as big as it could have been as Brooklyn didn't have the services of two-thirds of its 'big three', Kevin Durant and James Harden. Here, the Sixers host another elite opponent but do so knowing they've taken each of the last two meetings in this series in Philadelphia, but also with revenge on their minds following a 10-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back on March 27th. The Clippers have already locked up a winning three-game road trip thanks to victories in Indiana and Detroit. Now they're in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, with another three-in-four spot up next beginning Sunday at home against Minnesota. It's still unknown whether the Clips will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for Friday night's game. I would lean toward him playing but still like the 76ers in that situation. Note that Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points on average in that spot. The 76ers are also 21-9 ATS when playing at home following an ATS loss, as is the case here after Wednesday's win but non-cover against the undermanned Nets, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. There are injury concerns on both sides leading into this game with the status of Giannis and Trae at the top of every bettor's mind. Based on early line movement there's a good chance we'll see Giannis sit once again while Trae will likely give it a go, but I do like the Hawks regardless of the injury situation in this spot. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open its current road trip but it's worth noting it hasn't put together a three-game ATS winning streak since way back in February. The Bucks are playing a wide-open style right now and while it has flustered their last two opponents (two overmatched teams in the Magic and Timberwolves) I believe the Hawks will do just fine. After holding their last two opponents to 37.2% or worse shooting we can certainly anticipate some regression from Milwaukee defensively here. Meanwhile, the Hawks are riding high off three straight wins (both SU and ATS) but still have plenty of room for improvement after shooting 45.2% and 47.6% from the field in their last two contests - both coming on the road against the Hornets and Raptors. Note that Milwaukee checks in 11-20 ATS the L31 times it has come off consecutive games scoring at least 110 points. The Bucks are also just 9-19 ATS the L28 times they've been in a three games in five days situation on the road, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 points per game in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Memphis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs are coming off consecutive home losses against the Spurs and 76ers with the latter coming in embarrassing form in a lifeless effort two nights ago (in front of a national audience on ESPN, no less). It shouldn't be difficult for the Mavs to get back up for this one-game road trip to Memphis on Wednesday and they're set up well to get back in the win column. Note that Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per game in that situation. The Mavs are also a solid 39-25 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game in that spot. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 106.2 points per game when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season and should have hard time keeping up with the a Mavs squad that has inexplicably been better both offensively and defensively on the road compared to at home this season. Note that Dallas averages 118 points per game when playing on the road off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by 10 points back on February 22nd and has won two of its last three trips to Memphis, both SU and ATS. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers should be in a foul mood when they take the court on Tuesday night after suffering a disappointing 107-98 loss at home against the defensive-minded Heat on Sunday. While the Blazers have certainly been scuffing their heels lately, dropping three of their last four games overall, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back against the resurgent Celtics on Tuesday. Note that Portland has outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per game when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Celtics have averaged just 105.4 points per game and have been outscored by 2.4 points per contest when coming off a win by 15 points or more this season, as is the case here. Boston delivered that blowout win on Sunday, rallying against what appeared to be a very disinterested Nuggets squad (Denver scored just eight fourth quarter points in the loss). Portland couldn't have played much worse, particularly at the offensive end of the floor, against the Heat on Sunday. I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting up for this nationally-televised game at home before heading on the road for a two-game trip to San Antonio and Charlotte. Portland has lost a number of games against marquee opponents here at home lately and I think that's why this line is as short as it is. Thi sis a 'put up or shut up' game of sorts and I'm confident we'll see Damian Lillard take charge and lead the Blazers to a strong bounce-back performance. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Clippers but as we know from recent history, they don't always fare that well in that type of situation. We cashed the Magic in an outright underdog victory in a similar spot on March 30th. On that night, the Clippers were also playing the second of back-to-backs and also coming off consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better from the field. Here, we find Los Angeles coming off a victory over the Suns last night (we won with the 'under') - their third consecutive SU and ATS win. Note that the Clips have allowed 116.7 points per game when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by just 1.8 points per game in that situation. They've also gone just 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played at home off three consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rockets have actually been playing some competitive basketball lately, going 4-3 ATS over their last seven contests, including an upset win over the Mavericks two nights ago - a game in which Dallas did put forth a quality effort with a full roster and no limits on minutes even though it was the front half of a back-to-back. The Rockets won't have John Wall on Friday night after he poured in 31 points on Wednesday but they also didn't have him two games back when they gave the Suns all they could handle in a narrow 133-130 loss. As bad as the Rockets have been at times this season, they've still only been outscored by 5.5 points per game on the road. I'm not sure how interested the Clippers will be in laying a beatdown here while Houston has shown that it hasn't quit on the season despite its miserable record. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Memphis at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are in a bit of a lull right now, having lost five of their last six games but it's worth noting that four of those five games were played on the road and three of those losses almost certainly could have gone either way. While this looks like an awfully tough matchup on paper with the Grizzlies coming in off four straight victories, including a perfect 3-0 start to this current road trip, I expect New York to be up for the challenge. Note that the Grizz have caught a couple of favorable situations on this trip with the 76ers sitting Joel Embiid last Sunday and the Hawks missing a number of key cogs on Wednesday. After shooting a blistering 54.8% and 53.9% over their last two games, I'm certainly anticipating some offensive regression from the Grizzlies here, as they face a Knicks squad that allows just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. Note that New York is 10-1 ATS at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points in those contests. Also note that the Knicks have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per game following a loss by six points or less this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Grizz have been outscored by 2.5 points per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Blazers | 85-133 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll plug our nose and back the undermanned Thunder as they face the Blazers in Portland on Saturday night. Of course, Oklahoma City was routed by 37 points in Phoenix last night but that was against a Suns squad that is absolutely rolling right now. Here, the Thunder catch the Blazers playing their sixth game in the last 10 nights, in five different cities. The Blazers certainly looked like a tired team last night against Milwaukee, shooting 36.4% from the field while allowing the Bucks to shoot 54.4%. While Portland will certainly be eager to bounce back tonight, it's unlikely the Thunder will draw a great deal of motivation considering the Blazers already exacted revenge on the Thunder for an earlier-season home loss by winning by double-digits in Oklahoma City back on February 16th. The Blazers rarely blow anyone out here at home, where they've outscored the opposition by just 2.1 points per game this season. The Thunder check in 15-5 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Portland is a woeful 1-8 ATS at home after allowing 115 points or more in its last game this season, outscored by 7.9 points per game in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I thankfully laid off my potential fade of the Mavs last night as they ended up defeating the Knicks by double-digits in New York. Here, I will go to the well with a fade of streaking Dallas, however, as it might struggle to find the proper level of motivation to draw on in the final installment of what has been a successful five-game road trip. The Mavs lone loss on the trip came one week ago tonight in New Orleans in a game where they sat both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. While I certainly expect both to play here, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that Luka at the very least could be given another night off in this back-to-back situation - but we'll operate under the assumption that he does play. The Wizards didn't show up to play in Thursday's 29-point blowout loss in Detroit. You really do have to pick your spots wisely when it comes to the Wiz, but when they do show up motivated, you can generally count on a competitive game and I do expect them to step up here at home against the Mavs. Note that as poorly as things have gone in general for the Wiz in recent years, they've actually been outscored by just 0.2 points per game in their last 96 games played here at home. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of just 1.3 points when coming off a win over the last two seasons and here they check in off three consecutive victories. Washington is in a favorable situation here as it has gone 19-9 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the last two seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.3 points per game in that spot. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls here, even with the assumption that Zach LaVine won't be in the lineup. Chicago fell just short in Phoenix two nights ago as Devin Booker absolutely went off in a five-point Suns victory. Now at the tail-end of this four-game road trip, Chicago will be looking to at least salvage some positive momentum before returning home. Of course, that's a tall task against the league-leading Jazz. However, this has been a bit of an emotionally-draining week for Utah after its plane headed for Memphis was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds shortly after taking off. Donovan Mitchell was particularly shaken up following the experience and didn't make the trip to Memphis. Utah ended up getting past the Grizzlies by four points in a game where we won with the 'under'. The Bulls are in a good spot here, noting that they've gone an incredible 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. They're also 10-2 ATS when playing on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in that spot. There's really not much negative we can say about the Jazz as they've been dominant this season. I simply feel this is a spot where they're simply looking to keep their winning streak intact rather than win by margin. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. After an extended stay in Florida - a successful one at that - I think this might be a tough game for the Blazers to get up for on Wednesday night as they look to wrap up a perfect 4-0 eastern road swing. Portland has been a solid road team all season, going 14-9 SU and ATS, however it's been a dead heat in terms of scoring averages as it puts up 115.7 points per game while giving up, you guessed it, 115.7 points per game away from home. Also note that the Blazers have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points per game after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. They've also been outscored by 2.9 points per game on average when coming off an ATS win over the last two seasons. For their part, the Pistons have been a solid spread team at home this season, going 12-9 ATS, outscored by just 1.5 points per game on average. They check into tonight's game having gone a profitable 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall. Note that Detroit owns a stellar 17-7 ATS mark after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.4 points per game in that situation. With Portland looking forward to getting back home to host Giannis and the Bucks on Friday, look for the Pistons to keep this one competitive on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Magic cleared out over half of their starting five prior to the trade deadline last week but since then they've gone a perfect 2-0 ATS and now catch another favorable situation against the Clippers on Tuesday night. Los Angeles played through a number of key absences last night to rout the Bucks by 24 points. While the Clips have enjoyed tremendous success on the second of back-to-back nights this season, this is going to be an awfully tough one for them to get up for and when you factor in that they're also playing their third game in four nights, and off four consecutive double-digit wins, I can certainly see them taking a bit of a breather. The Magic have actually been outscored by just 1.9 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Clippers have outscored opponents by just 4.7 points on average when playing at home off an ATS win over the last three seasons. The Magic check in 29-16 ATS when playing on the road following four or five ATS wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by just 2.1 points per game in that situation. Finally, Orlando could get a boost with the expected return of three-point specialist Terrence Ross on Tuesday as well. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw this line open a little higher than expected with Bradley Beal questionable to play after exiting with a hip injury on Saturday. I would operate under the assumption that Beal won't play on Monday - should he be able to go that will serve as an added bonus. I like the spot for the Wizards regardless. There's no question this is a tough spot for the Pacers to get up for as they look ahead to a pair of much tougher home games against the Heat and Hornets later this week. Washington is coming off a 14-point rout of Detroit on Saturday night, shooting better than 46% from the field for a seventh consecutive game while holding the opposition to under 39% shooting for the second straight contest. While Washington is thought of as an Eastern Conference doormat, it has held its own here at home this season, going 11-12 ATS while being outscored by less than four points per game. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by just 0.6 points per game on the road this season. Indiana checks in off consecutive victories over the Pistons and Mavs but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas was without Luka Doncic in the latter contest. The Pacers check into a miserable spot here having gone a woeful 1-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, outscored by six points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards average an impressive 122.9 points per game playing at home off an ATS win this season, outscored by just 0.9 points on average in that spot. The Pacers are averaging 113 points per game overall this season but that average drops to 108.1 ppg when coming off a win over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. A lot of bettors got burned by the Nets last night, electing to fade them missing two of the big three against the Blazers in Portland. James Harden rose the occasion and Brooklyn pulled off the outright underdog win in that one. Now those same bettors might be quick to switch gears and back the Nets catching a generous helping of points in Utah tonight, especially with the Jazz returning home off a long road trip. I think that's the wrong move. Note that Brooklyn will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities and three different time zones. That's not to mention the fact that it is without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving while James Harden plays with a nagging neck injury (after being on the floor for 39 minutes last night). Utah has of course been one of the league's best bets this season, going 13-4 ATS as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game on average. I like the way the Jazz are set up here, noting that they've allowed just 100.6 points per game and outscored the opposition by 12 points per game after winning their previous contest by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. That's the case here after Utah closed out its road trip with a 25-point blowout win in Chicago on Monday. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have now won three straight and five of their last seven games ATS following a three-game ATS losing skid where many had left them for dead. We won with them in Friday's outright underdog win over the Nets and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Orlando has been a streaky team from an ATS perspective, having gone 19-5 ATS after winning four of its last five games ATS over the last three seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Boston has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS and while most see this as a terrific bounce-back spot, I just think the Celtics might have a tough time getting fully focused on the Magic in a sleepy Sunday afternoon spot before heading out on the road for four games. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. This road trip hasn't gone as planned for the Hornets as they've dropped consecutive games by double-digit margins in Denver and here in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). I like the way they're set up to at least keep things competitive against the Clippers on Saturday, however. Note that Charlotte has gone 37-19 ATS off at least two losses in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by just 1.0 point per game in that situation. They're also an impressive 21-8 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per game in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've outscored opponents by an average margin of just 5.9 points when returning home off a road game over the last three seasons. There's no reason for the Hornets to hang their heads here as they still have three games left on this road trip to turn things around. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Clips to get up for this two-game homestand against Eastern Conference opponents. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Antonio at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Even without Demar Derozan, the Spurs have turned things around with consecutive wins over the Pistons and Bulls this week. I expect them to have a tough time staying up for this date with the lowly Cavs on Friday, however, with Derozan likely to miss once again. The Cavs finally won a game last time out with their young core showing up and showing out against the Celtics in a 117-110 victory. I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Note that the Spurs are just 6-16 ATS after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.5 points on average in that situation. They're also a woeful 16-30 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per contest. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game banged-up but I give the Thunder the considerable edge in terms of motivation. Oklahoma City is coming off a 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulls in Chicago two nights ago but that sets it up well here, noting that the Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season, outscored by just 0.8 points per game in that spot. They're 29-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are a miserable 4-14 ATS after posting four or five ATS wins in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 12.3 points per game in that situation. While we're obviously talking about a much stronger Atlanta squad than we've seen in past years', I do question how much the Hawks will be up for this one after winning six straight games, with their last three victories coming by double-digit margins. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards have a quick turnaround here after losing on a last-second shot from De'Aaron Fox last night against the Kings. However, I would argue this is a much tougher game for Utah to get up for than Washington. The Jazz defeated the Celtics two nights ago in Boston and are playing in their third different time zone since the All-Star break having gone from Utah to San Francisco to Boston and now the short trip to Washington. Having gone just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, how interested are the Jazz in laying a beatdown on the Wiz here? Meanwhile, Washington has now lost five games in a row and would like nothing more than to play spoiler before heading on the road for three straight games in New York (one against the Nets and two against the Knicks). Note that while the Jazz are an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons, they've won those games by an average margin of just 4.6 points. The Wizards are 26-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a ticket fading the Kings on Monday night in Charlotte and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their eastern road swing in Washington. The Wizards have lost four straight games but they were underdogs in all four of those contests. This is clearly their best shot at a win on their current five-game homestand as a date with the Jazz looms tomorrow night. As I noted in Monday's analysis, the Kings have been awful following a loss this season and it ultimately boils down to poor coaching in my opinion. They've gone 6-17 ATS off a loss this season, outscored by 7.1 points on average in that situation. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-36 ATS following an ATS loss, outscored by 5.5 points per game on average. Look for the Wiz to bring an end to their losing streak here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a fourth quarter meltdown in Oklahoma City yesterday as they dropped a 128-122 decision as a big road favorite. Now they're in tough as they play the second half of a back-to-back against what will be a highly-motivated Suns squad coming off a double-digit home loss against the Pacers two nights ago. Memphis ranks second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests and I believe that's precisely what will get it into trouble tonight. Note that the Suns rank fifth in the league on offensive rating at home this season while checking in sixth in defensive rating at home. I certainly don't expect to see the Grizzlies shoot better than 50% from the field again tonight after they knocked down 51% of their shots yesterday. This one has the potential to get away from Memphis as it plays for the fourth time since the All-Star break (in three different cities). It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 37-0 ATS in all games involving the Suns this season. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Antonio at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have faced some Covid-related adversity out of the All-Star break with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons sidelined in their first game back - a convincing win in Chicago - before Embiid returned for Friday's rout of the Wizards. Here, the Sixers draw another favorable matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio delivered a blowout victory at home against the Magic on Friday, successfully bouncing back from a loss in Dallas two nights earlier. The fact that the Spurs won that game on Friday without Demar Derozan was impressive but there's a big difference between beating a team like the Magic at home and going out on the road and competing with the red hot 76ers. I simply feel this line will prove too short, even if the 76ers are once again missing key cogs. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU and ATS coming out of the All-Star break and most will expect them to get blown out by the mighty Bucks here, who returned from the break with a rout of the Knicks. I’ll go the other way and grab the points with the Wiz as I see this as a very difficult game for Milwaukee to get up for. Note that the Bucks are just 14-27 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Meanwhile the Wiz are 25-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games over the last three seasons and have been out scored by just 4.3 points per game off a loss by 20+ points over the same period. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers went into the All-Star break on a real sour note having lost five of their last six games (0-6 ATS) and will certainly have no trouble getting up for this matchup with Lebron and the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Note that Indiana has gone a stellar 11-1 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points when dropping the cash in six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here. The Lakers also entered the break as a downtrodden squad having lost back-to-back games and six of their last eight games overall. Having lost their most recent game in Sacramento, the Lakers are set up poorly here, having actually been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points following a road loss over the last three seasons. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Suns crushed the Blazers by 32 points in Phoenix the last time these two teams met back on February 22nd. This time around, I'm expecting Portland to put up a much tougher fight as it catches the Suns in a favorable situation. Note that Phoenix has inexplicably been outscored by 10.6 points per game on average when playing on the road following a home game over the last three seasons. Further exacerbating things is the fact that the Suns are 0-8 ATS when playing on three or more days' rest over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 10.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blazers check in 17-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.5 points on average. Looking up at Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, look for the Blazers to take a stand at home on Thursday night. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Nets | 109-121 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics went into the All-Star break riding a four-game winning streak and they come out of it as healthy as they've been all season with Marcus Smart expected to return to the lineup on Thursday night. Note that Boston has been tremendous in an underdog role over the last two seasons, going 23-11 ATS and actually outscoring its opponents by an average margin of 0.8 points. The Celtics have also outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.1 points when on the road revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. With the Nets missing Kevin Durant and Boston chasing them in the Atlantic Division standings this would be an opportune time for the C's to stage an upset. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think the Spurs are getting nearly enough credit for what they accomplished in the face of what seemed like constant adversity in the first half of the season. San Antonio checks into this game sporting an 18-14 overall record, including a stellar 9-4 record away from home. That's despite missing key cogs due to injuries and otherwise throughout. The Spurs have had plenty of success here in Dallas in recent years, taking three of the last four meetings outright and I like them catching the points here as well. Note that San Antonio has thrived in a revenge role in recent years, going an incredible 42-17 ATS when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. Meanwhile, Dallas has been as inconsistent as they come from an ATS perspective, and check in 9-20 ATS in 29 home games after posting an ATS win in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.5 points in that situation. San Antonio is expected to have some bodies back for this one and should be fresh after the All-Star break. I expect Gregg Popovich will have his team ready for this one. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
03-03-21 | Thunder +8 v. Mavs | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
PLEASE NOTE: This line has dropped considerably with the news that Luka Doncic is doubtful for the Mavs. While I did personally play the Thunder at +8 well in advance of the Luka news, OKC still warrants a play at the current number as well. NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs failed to cover the 6.5-7-point spread for us on Monday despite holding a double-digit lead for much of the fourth quarter. Their defensive play continues to be a concern and I expect them to be in for a fight against a scrappy Thunder squad on Wednesday night. Note that Oklahoma City has been a solid road underdog in recent years, going 28-9 ATS in that situation over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 3.1 points. It gets even better when the Thunder are coming off a loss as they've gone 18-8 ATS on the road after suffering at least one loss, actually outscoring the opposition by a point per game on average. Meanwhile, similar situations have been dreadful for the Mavs as they're 3-12 at home off a road win over the last two seasons, stunningly outscored by an average of nearly nine points in that situation. Note that these two teams split a pair of meetings last season, with the Mavs owning the scoring margin edge by a total of five points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-01-21 | Mavs -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 130-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Even in a clear letdown spot off Saturday's nationally-televised win over the Nets, I expect the Mavericks to show up and take care of the reeling Magic on Monday night in Orlando. Note that Dallas is 19-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. Meanwhile, the Magic have been awful in the home underdog role, going 6-17 ATS over the last two seasons, losing those games by more than 10 points on average. It's also worth noting that Orlando is 0-11 ATS at home when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, losing those games by nearly 12 points on average. That's notable as the Mavs took the first matchup between these two teams this season by 14 points back on January 9th. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards -4.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are currently one of the league's hottest teams yet here they are laying only a couple of buckets against a reeling T'Wolves squad. Washington's reputation obviously precedes it but that's just fine with us as we can take advantage with a reasonably short pointspread on Saturday night. Note that the straight-up winner has now covered the spread in each of the Wizards last 20 games. I'm certainly comfortable going against Minnesota here, noting that it has managed to secure just five victories in the last two months (remember, the T'Wolves started the season with consecutive wins but have gone 5-26 SU since). Minnesota hasn't fared well in similar situations this season, going 11-23 ATS as an underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, losing those games by nearly six points on average. The T'Wolves are also just 7-20 ATS after scoring 110+ points in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average of nearly 10 points per game in that situation. Maybe the Wiz look past the T'Wolves here, but even with their recent success, I don't think they're at the level where they would afford themselves that type of letdown. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
02-26-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This is a spot we've gone back to time and time again as the Clippers look to rebound off an ugly loss against these same Grizzlies last night. Note that Los Angeles is 27-10 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of around nine points. Better still, the Clips are 19-9 ATS off an outright upset loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide 14.1-point margin on average. Los Angeles needs to right the ship in this game as the road trip will only get tougher with stops in Milwaukee and Boston up next. Memphis was highly-motivated to show up and show out in last night's game off consecutive losses but may not be able to reach that same level of intensity here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-25-21 | Pelicans v. Bucks -9 | Top | 125-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We've been high on the Bucks lately, most recently backing them in their 27-point rout of the T'Wolves on Tuesday. You would think that might have been a tough game for them to get up for but they shook off a sluggish start and ultimately pulled away for a blowout win. Here, I don't think they'll have any difficulty getting up for a nationally-televised game against Zion and the Pelicans, especially after dropping a 131-126 decision in New Orleans back in January. Milwaukee has reeled off three straight wins since an extended slide that saw it drop five games in a row. It has been a tremendous momentum play in recent years, going 12-2 ATS at home after posting consecutive wins by 10+ points over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 19 points. In the role of home favorite over the last three seasons, the Bucks have gone 57-36 ATS, outscoring opponents by 13 points per contest. The Pelicans are coming off consecutive wins and certainly rolling offensively but figure to struggle here on the road, where they've gone 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 112-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After an extended slump, we've seen an unwinding of the Bucks of sorts in recent days as they've delivered blowout wins over the Thunder and Kings. I look for that trend to continue here as they host the T'Wolves on Tuesday night. Minnesota rallied to nearly upset the Knicks on the road on Sunday night but ultimately fell short and now ride a four-game SU and ATS losing streak. It hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team in recent years, going 7-17 ATS after dropping the cash in five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons and 20-34 ATS following an ATS loss over the same period. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 52-33 ATS after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Despite their recent struggles, they're still a terrific 57-37 ATS at home over the last three seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-21-21 | Nets +5.5 v. Clippers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Friday's victory over the red hot Jazz but I won't hesitate to go the other way on Sunday as they find themselves in a much different situation, favored against the surging Nets. I like what I've seen from Brooklyn lately, as it has played a very cohesive brand of basketball, even with Kevin Durant sidelined. There's little reason for the Nets to roll over in this spot as they've had ample time to get down off their pedestal following Thursday's rout of Lebron and the Lakers. The Clips have been inconsistent all season and should get the Nets best shot in this one, especially with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back in the fold. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
02-19-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +4 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We saw plenty of bettors looking to fade the Jazz in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles but were ultimately burned as Utah pulled away against the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-less Clippers. I believe now is the time to back the Clips as they've been an excellent bounce-back team in recent years and whether they have Kawhi or George back on the floor or not, I like them to give the Jazz a run on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is an impressive 24-11 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12.5 points. They've also gone 17-7 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games, as is the case here, winning those contests by an average margin of over 10 points. The Jazz found themselves in a similar situation to this back at the end of January as they looked to defeat the Nuggets on the road for a second time in two weeks. After notching a 109-105 victory on January 17th they fell by 11 points in the return trip on January 31st. Similarly, I look for Utah to get tripped up here, noting it was also riding a long winning streak (11 games) entering that contest. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Bettors have seemingly lost faith in the Heat, and perhaps for good reason as they've dropped the cash in three straight games. They've generally been a terrific bounce-back team in recent years, however, and I see this as a fine 'get right' spot against a reeling Kings squad. Note that Miami is 30-18 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.5 points in those games. They've also gotten stronger the longer road trips go on, posting a 37-18 ATS mark in road games after playing at least four straight games away from home. The Kings have dropped four games in a row, both SU and ATS, and check in just 7-10 SU at home this season. The Heat need this win and I'm confident they'll get it. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans 'got right' with a win in Memphis last night and we were along for the ride, backing them in that victory. Now New Orleans makes the quick trip home to host the Blazers on Wednesday night and I like the Pelicans to deliver the cash again. For Portland, this will be its third game in four nights, in three different cities. The Blazers have undoubtedly been playing well but this might be the spot where tired legs catch up with them. New Orleans ran into a flat spot in its schedule last weekend, culminating with a double-digit loss in Detroit on Sunday night. I liked the way it bounced back last night in Memphis and expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Pels' are quite simply catching the Blazers in the right place at the right time as far as I'm concerned. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Memphis at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. In our fade of the Pelicans on Sunday night in Detroit we made note of the fact that it would be a very difficult matchup to get up for. That turned out to be exactly the case as New Orleans was flat and ultimately suffered an 11-point loss. This is a different story altogether as the Pelicans always seem to get up for the Grizzlies with the Zion vs. Ja matchup taking center stage. Note that New Orleans has won four straight meetings in this series, most recently grabbing a 118-109 decision on February 6th. Also note that Stan Van Gundy-coached teams have gone 117-84 ATS off a double-digit loss and 95-67 ATS after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here with the Pelicans. While New Orleans hasn't been a good road team this season, going 4-10 SU, the Grizzlies haven't been much better at home, going 4-7 SU. I believe a letdown is in order for the Grizz after they won by 14 points in Sacramento on Sunday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks have caught favorable matchups in their last two games, going on the road against a Bradley Beal-less Wizards squad on Friday before hosting a struggling Rockets team on Saturday. This should be a different story on Monday as Atlanta will be highly-motivated off back-to-back losses and with revenge in mind after the Knicks won by a 113-108 score in Atlanta back on January 4th (we won with New York in that game). Note that Tom Thibodeau-coached teams (the Knicks in this case) have gone 5-18 ATS in home games following a 20+ point win at home over the course of his career. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Lakers in Friday's 10-point win over the Grizzlies and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them here. Los Angeles got the wake-up call it needed in the first quarter against Memphis on Friday, falling behind 20-2 out of the gates. From the second quarter on, it did what great teams do, reaching to another gear and ultimately winning the game comfortably. There's no question, we've seen the Lakers scuffing their heels lately. Remember, earlier in the week the undermanned Thunder took them to overtime in consecutive games, in Los Angeles no less. Here, I look for L.A. to rise to the occasion against a quality opponent in Denver. Note that the Lakers have taken seven of eight meetings with the Nuggets, including a 4-1 playoff series win last Summer, since the start of 2020. The Lakers have thrived on heading out on the road recently, going 14-3 ATS in their first game of a road trip over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12 points. The Nuggets are a miserable 11-24 ATS following back-to-back wins over the last two seasons. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent spot to back the Lakers at a reasonably short number coming off consecutive overtime wins over the Thunder and three straight non-ATS covers. Memphis just snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 130-114 win over Charlotte on Wednesday but now heads to Los Angeles where it has lost its last two meetings with the Lakers by 29 and 12 points. Note that Memphis is dealing with a number of key absences, but perhaps one is flying under the radar with Desmond Bane expected to miss due to personal reasons. He has been giving the Grizzlies around 25 productive minutes per game off the bench and his absence will be felt here. Of course, there's uncertainty around Lakers star Anthony Davis' availability but that has been more than factored into this price in my opinion. Note that the Lakers have owned the Southwest Division over the last two seasons, going 21-10 ATS. They swept consecutive games in Memphis back in early January. We actually won with the Grizzlies in the second game of that set but that was after the Lakers took the first game by 14 points. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the Clippers in their most recent game - a seven-point victory in Minnesota on Wednesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Los Angeles got off to a very slow start in that game, perhaps caught looking past a bad T'Wolves squad that got an emotional boost from the return of Karl-Anthony Towns. With that being said, the Clips had every opportunity to earn the ATS cover were it not for a letdown in the closing minutes. Here, we're being asked to lay a much shorter number and this time I like L.A. to come away with a comfortable victory. Chicago is off a double-digit win in an underdog role against the Pelicans on Wednesday. Note that the Bulls haven't won consecutive games since reeling off three straight wins from January 17th-22nd. Fading the Bulls here is supported by a situation that has cashed at a 66-34 ATS clip over the last five seasons which involves fading underdog teams coming off a high-scoring upset win. Note that the Clips are 32-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in their previous contest over the last three seasons. On the flip side, the Bulls are 12-27 ATS when playing at home after an ATS win over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Philadelphia at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up nicely for the Blazers as they host the red hot 76ers on Thursday night. Philadelphia opened this western road trip with a 119-111 win in Sacramento on Tuesday night, marking their second straight ATS victory and sixth in their last seven games. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Sixers are also a long-term loser in this pointspread range on the road, going 9-21 ATS, outscored by an average of around three points per game, when laying six points or less away from home. Meanwhile, Portland has gone 105-75 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less. The Blazers are feeling some good vibes right now having won three of their last four games. They'll let weaker opponents hang around here at home, as we saw in Monday's single-digit win over the injury-depleted Magic. However, they're also capable of stepping up against quality opponents such as Philadelphia. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Off back-to-back losses we can anticipate the Clippers will be in a foul mood and ready to take out their frustrations on the hapless T'Wolves on Wednesday night. Last season the Clips ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency but they've taken a step back in that regard this year, middling in 15th position in that category. Here, they catch a break however, as Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency with no discernible difference between their poor results on the road and at home. Interestingly, the Clips check in tops in the league in offensive efficiency on the road and despite the fact they're off consecutive losses, they rank sixth in that category over their last three contests. There's reason to believe we'll see a breakout performance from Los Angeles here. I'm fine with laying the double-digits in this spot. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs -1.5 | 114-91 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Spurs last night in their come-from-behind victory over the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Warriors entered last night's game on a red hot shooting tear but certainly cooled off over the course of that defeat, ultimately shooting just 44% from the field and making 13-of-37 three-point attempts. It might be tough for them to get it right back here on Tuesday. The Spurs will be determined to keep their winning streak (currently three games) intact before they head east on a long seven-game road trip. Meanwhile, Golden State has been largely inconsistent this season and is still just a .500 team despite its strong showing in late January (and even in a nationally televised rout of the Mavs last Thursday). I believe the Spurs are once again being discounted here and we'll take advantage again. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a fade/letdown spot for the Warriors after an draining two-game set in Dallas which they only managed a split. Steph Curry is of course coming off a 57-point outburst in front of a national TV audience on Saturday night but that wasn't enough to secure the victory. Now the Warriors head to San Antonio to face a Spurs squad that may not draw as much motivation but is a formidable opponent nonetheless. San Antonio has won five of its last seven games overall and should be a galvanized unit off consecutive tight victories over the Timberwolves and Rockets. With this being the first of a back-to-back set here at the AT&T Center, look for the Spurs to put their best foot forward on Monday night. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Boston at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Suns as they catch the Celtics coming off a big road win over the Clippers. Note that Phoenix ranks an impressive sixth in the league in defensive efficiency this season with that ranking rising to number three in the league at home. By contrast, the Celtics sit 18th in the same category on the road. The Suns are obviously a much better team with a healthy Devin Booker on the floor. Since returning to the lineup three games ago he has scored 24, 25 and 23 points despite topping out at 31 minutes. Look for him to get extended a little more in this game on Sunday afternoon. While the C's are off a big win, they've actually posted just two victories in their last five games overall. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
02-06-21 | Blazers v. Knicks +1.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Portland at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. The Blazers are coming off consecutive wins on this eastern road swing, taking down the Wizards and 76ers. We actually won with Portland in the win in Washington. Here, I'll go the other way as it continues its trip with an early start game in Manhattan. Keep in mind, the Blazers continue to play without a number of key cogs. Damian Lillard has been carrying the load but even he is nursing an abdomen injury. The Knicks have shown some growth already this season. It's worth noting that they rank an impressive 7th in the league in defensive efficiency while Portland sits a miserable 28th in that category. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
02-05-21 | Raptors v. Nets -4.5 | 123-117 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. The Raptors 'got right' with back-to-back wins over the reeling Magic earlier this week, capped off by Fred Van Vleet's incredible 54-point outburst last time out. Keep in mind, those two wins came on the heels of three straight losses. The Raps remain a disappointing 9-12 on the season. Brooklyn has won five of its last six games to move five games over .500 on the campaign. While a letdown could certainly be in order off a four-point win over the Clippers, I think we'll instead see Brooklyn ramp up before heading out on the road for two games in Philadelphia and Detroit. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Nuggets appear to have turned the corner again with wins in six of their last seven games and they enter this contest in a terrific spot having been idle since Sunday's double-digit win over the Jazz. Meanwhile, the Lakers return home following a long seven-game road trip out east - a traditional flat spot in the NBA. Note that Los Angeles has topped out at 107 points over its last four games. That might not be enough on Thursday. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
02-03-21 | Mavs v. Hawks +2 | 122-116 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Dallas at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks are coming off a close loss to the Lakers on Monday night but that doesn't change the fact that they've been playing well and should be in fine bounce-back position against a struggling Mavericks squad on Wednesday night. Dallas just hasn't been the same consistent force this season and it enters this contest off yet another disappointing performance in a one-point loss to Phoenix - its sixth consecutive loss. I believe a better get-right spot will come back at home as they open a seven-game homestand following this one. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Blazers in Chicago on Saturday and I won't hesitate to back them again on Tuesday as they once again find themselves as a short underdog on the road. The Wizards are coming off a thrilling three-point win over the Nets on Sunday but will be hard-pressed to top that 149-point outburst here. Keep in mind, that was just their fourth victory of the season and first since January 11th. After dropping a tough one in Milwaukee last night, look for Portland to bounce back here. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
02-01-21 | Kings v. Pelicans -3.5 | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Sacramento at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I like the rebound spot for the Pelicans here as they look to get back in the win column after a blowout loss to the Rockets on Saturday. That was a clear letdown spot for New Orleans as it had just won two games in a row, including an upset victory over the Bucks one night earlier. Here, the Pelicans should respond with a positive effort against a middling Kings squad. Sacramento has gone 2-1 on this road trip so far, with its last two games settled by a grand total of just three points. Off those two tight, emotional contests, look for the Kings to suffer a bit of a flat spot here. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
01-31-21 | Jazz +2 v. Nuggets | 117-128 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz just keep rolling along, having not lost a game since way back on January 6th. Here, they go on the road to face what can only be considered an overrated Nuggets squad at this point. Denver had won five games in a row before dropping a 10-point decision in San Antonio last time out. Keep in mind, the Nuggets recent winning streak came against struggling opponents in the Suns (twice), Mavs and Heat. Utah continues to be an undervalued commodity despite its scorching hot play. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
01-30-21 | Blazers +2 v. Bulls | 123-122 | Win | 101 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the Blazers to bounce back from Thursday's narrow three-point loss in Houston as they head to Chicago to face the Bulls on Saturday night. Chicago was put in its place in consecutive home setbacks against the Lakers and Celtics, bringing a halt to a three-game winning streak in the process. The Blazers will be looking to snap a two-game skid of their own in this spot, noting that they've yet to lose more than two games in a row this season. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
01-27-21 | Kings v. Magic -1.5 | 121-107 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Magic two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here as they draw a winnable matchup against the Kings. Sacramento is coming off a win over the Knicks, but that was last Friday. Its last two games were scheduled to be played in Memphis but were postponed due to Covid protocols. The Kings haven't won a road game since posting a two-point victory in Denver back on December 23rd. Now they travel across the country after four full days off to face a Magic squad that is looking to find some consistency and post consecutive wins for the first time since January 4th and 6th. I like the upside the Magic offer after a tough stretch, noting that they could just as easily be entering this game on a four-game winning streak after a couple of heartbreaking two and three-point setbacks over the weekend. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
01-26-21 | Knicks +11 v. Jazz | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Utah at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I have no problem fading the red hot Jazz here as they aim to extend their eight-game winning streak, but do so with an eye on a three-game in five-night stretch against the Mavs and Nuggets up next. The Knicks betting bandwagon was loading up on the heels of three straight victories last week but has since cleared following consecutive losses to the Kings and Trailblazers. I expect New York's best effort here as it tries to avoid a losing four-game road trip before a couple of off days. Note that New York took the first meeting between these two teams this season, by double-digits no less, back on January 6th at home. While the Jazz will be looking to get their revenge here, I'm still not sure a losing squad like the Knicks will garner their complete attention. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-25-21 | Hornets v. Magic +2 | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the Magic last night as they fell on a buzzer-beater in the first half of this back-to-back set. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Orlando here as it is well-positioned to rebound against a beatable Hornets squad. The Magic controlled proceedings much of the way last night before falling apart in the fourth quarter. With that being said, they still managed to tie the game up with eight seconds remaining. Their motivation level will certainly be high on Monday night as they look to get back in the win column at home. Take Orlando (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |