Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-04-23 | Nets v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets look unstoppable right now having won 12 straight games. I don't think we'll see Chicago back down easily on Wednesday, however, noting that the Bulls already defeated the Nets in Brooklyn this season and have taken three of four matchups in this series going back to the start of last season. The Bulls are fresh off a tough overtime loss against the Cavs on Monday as Cleveland got an other-worldly performance from Donovan Mitchell. At 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games, Chicago does continue to play well. Here, I think the Nets are in for a letdown after absolutely shooting the lights out (60% or better from the field) in consecutive games. While Chicago is just an even 9-9 on its home floor this season, it has managed to outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 points. The Nets are 12-7 on the road but outscore opponents by just 1.9 points on average. I simply feel the Bulls are catching too many points here. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -8 | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Washington at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Handicapping 101 dictates a play on the Bucks here as they host the Wizards in the second of a two-game set in Milwaukee after dropping Sunday's contest by 23 points (without Giannis in the lineup). The fact that Giannis was understandable as 'load management' came in to play following his 43-20 game in a win and cover against the T'Wolves two nights earlier. Milwaukee has admittedly struggled lately, losing five of its last six games, while the Wizards are riding a five-game winning streak. Here, we'll note though that the Wiz are 93-125 ATS when coming off an outright victory as a road underdog going all the way back to 1996. Worse still, they're 20-40 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win as an underdog over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 10.7 points in that situation. Despite their recent struggles, the Bucks remain a stellar 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.2 points on average. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | Blazers -2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have inexplicably gone on a three-game winning streak without a number of key contributors including Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins but I look for that run to end here against the Blazers. Portland snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Charlotte last time out. This is undoubtedly a game the Blazers have had circled after dropping all three meetings with the Warriors last season, including a 132-95 home loss in their most recent matchup last February. The Warriors have actually allowed their opponents to get off 94, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over the course of their three-game winning streak. Those three opponents just haven't been able to make good on their wealth of opportunities. I don't expect the Blazers to suffer a similar fate tonight. Portland 'got right' offensively last time out, knocking down 43-of-86 FG attempts and should keep it rolling here. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | Suns v. Raptors -2 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Raptors here as they take the court at home for the second time in as many nights off a less-than-competitive affair against the Grizzlies last night. They're catching the Suns without Devin Booker which is obviously a positive for the hometown Raps. Phoenix has won just four of its last 13 games, largely due to a number of key injuries and off a 25-point rout in Washington, I don't expect it to pick itself up off the mat on Friday. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -6 | 110-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers have been one of the best bets in the league in recent weeks but we'll fade them here as they head to Boston off consecutive ATS victories on their current five-game road trip. Note that the Celtics are hot as well, winners of three straight games both SU and ATS. I don't think there's any letdown in order for the C's here as they dropped their lone previous matchup with the Clippers this season by a whopping 20 points in Los Angeles. With the Clips having allowed their last three opponents to make good on 47, 44 and 43 field goals, I think the Celtics are catching them at the right time here. Boston cleaned things up defensively last time out, holding Houston to just 38 made field goals on 95 attempts. On the flip side, the C's have knocked down 44, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. Look for them to keep rolling on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
12-27-22 | Hornets +4.5 v. Warriors | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the banged-up Warriors off their stunning Christmas Day rout of the Grizzlies as a 7.5-point underdog. While they do catch the Hornets in a back-to-back spot, Charlotte is off a double-digit loss in Portland. I like the way the Hornets have been pushing the envelope offensively, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in eight straight games entering Tuesday's contest. It's been a much different story defensively, but I do think they're well-positioned here with the undermanned Warriors having made good on 43 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and Sunday's 91-FG attempt performance marking a four-game high (they had gotten off 81, 74 and 83 FG attempts in their previous three contests). Simply put, it's difficult to win by margin when you're only attempting 80-83 FG attempts per game, especially against a team like the Hornets that will find its offensive opportunities regardless (they've scored over 100 points in 11 straight games). Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-27-22 | Knicks +5.5 v. Mavs | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Knicks as they look to snap their three-game losing streak in Dallas on Tuesday night. New York has been quite efficient offensively, despite its recent losing ways, knocking down 42 or more field goals in four straight games entering this contest. They lost at home against the 76ers on Christmas Day despite limiting Philadelphia to only 77 field goal attempts while getting off 90 themselves. I expect a reversal of fortunes here noting that the Mavericks are fresh off a nine-point win (and cover) over the Lakers on Christmas Day, getting off a four-game high 84 FG attempts while holding Los Angeles to a six-game low 80 in that affair. Dallas took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 21 points in New York earlier this month. New York had swept the two-game series last season, winning those contests by 23 and 30-point margins. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
12-26-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the T'Wolves here as I'm confident they can at the very least take this game down to the wire in a matchup of two teams riding two-game losing streaks. Minnesota had won three games in a row prior to dropping tough decisions against the Mavericks and Celtics. They still enter Monday's contest having made good on 42 or more field goals in five straight games, while holding three of their last six opponents to 34 or fewer made shots. Miami had also been hot prior to dropping its last two games, winners of four in a row. I don't see the same level of consistency from the Heat offense, however, noting that they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Interestingly, the T'Wolves have knocked down four more field goals per game than the Heat this season, despite getting off just one more field goal attempt per contest. At the other end of the floor, Minnesota has allowed one more made field goal but on five additional attempts yielded to opponents. The T'Wolves should come in with confidence having taken all three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 113-104 win here in Miami last March. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
12-21-22 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll take this opportunity to fade the Cavs, who check in 8-5 straight-up on the road this season but have been outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points per contest. The Cavs are 15-2 on their home floor, laying waste to the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points per game. While it's true Milwaukee just dismantled a good New Orleans team in a 128-119 victory in the Big Easy two nights ago, the Bucks are also just two games removed from a 41-point rout at the hands of the Grizzlies in Memphis. The Cavs are riding a four-game winning streak and will have revenge in mind here after dropping the first two meetings in this series this season (both games were played in Milwaukee). Cleveland took both matchups on its home floor last season and neither game was all that competitive with the Cavs winning by 16 and 18 points. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a prime letdown spot for the Magic as they come in 'fat and happy' off a two-game sweep of the Celtics in Boston and now play their second game in as many nights, in Atlanta on Monday. The Hawks are desperately trying to find some consistency, winners of just two of their last seven games overall. The good news is, they're coming off one of their best performances of the season as they defeated Charlotte 125-106 on Friday. On the heels of two days off and having scored 116 or more points in four of their last five games, I look for them to pull away for a convincing win over the upstart Magic on Monday. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
12-18-22 | Nets v. Pistons +7.5 | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nets are rolling right now, already a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on their current road trip and winners of five consecutive games overall. I think this is a tough game to get up for, however, as they head to Detroit to take on the lowly Pistons on Sunday. Detroit will be revenge-minded in this one after dropping all four matchups against the Nets last season. Note that Brooklyn checks in a woeful 2-11 ATS after covering the spread in three of its last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in that situation. The Nets are also just 19-31 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games, as is the case here, over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by just 1.9 points on average in that spot. The Pistons, meanwhile, have gone 39-20 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the down-trodden Thunder here as they look to snap their five-game losing streak (not to mention get back at the Grizzlies after dropping both previous meetings this season) on Saturday nigiht in Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies are of course red hot off seven consecutive wins both SU and ATS. It's worth noting however that they've only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.6 points when playing on the road off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons (13-game sample size). Teh Thunder are 27-15 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons and 17-6 ATS over the same stretch when coming off four or more losses in a row, outscored by only 3.1 points on average in that latter situation. Note that last season, the Thunder went 2-1 ATS against the Grizzlies despite getting drilled by a ridiculous 73 points in their first matchup of the season. Memphis has won only two of 14 road games by double-digit margins this season and it needed to get off nine more field goal attempts against Sacramento and eight more against Detroit to do so. It's unlikely it will benefit from that sort of shot disparity here as it checks in having allowed 90+ field goal attempts to each of its last four opponents while Oklahoma City has limited three of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
12-15-22 | Pelicans -1 v. Jazz | 129-132 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. Utah took the front half of this two-game set in Salt Lake City two nights ago but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Thursday. Utah has actually taken both meetings in this series so far this season. However, it's worth noting that neither team has managed to pull off a three-game winning streak in the series over the last 11 meetings going back to 2020. New Orleans checks in averaging the same number of made field goals per game as Utah this season, but on one fewer attempt per contest. It knocks down four fewer three-pointers per game but that's on nine fewer attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Pelicans give up two fewer made field goals per contest, on two fewer attempts. Utah is giving up three fewer made threes per game - but again, that's on seven fewer attempts from beyond the arc. I'll bite with the Pelicans here. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Celtics here after they suffered their second straight loss (only their second losing streak of the season) on this same floor against the Clippers last night. Note that Boston scored only 93 points in that defeat, putting it in an excellent situation here given it has gone 11-2 ATS after scoring 95 points or less in its previous contest over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points on average in that spot. The Celtics are also 13-4 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12.6 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Lakers are off a win and cover in Detroit at the tail-end of a long road trip and are just 16-29 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 3.9 points on average along the way. Worse still, they're 31-47 ATS as an underdog over that stretch, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points in those contests. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
12-13-22 | Suns -5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly a game the Suns have had circled since dropping an embarrassing 122-121 decision at home against the Rockets on December 2nd. That loss seemed to send Phoenix into a bit of a tailspin as it enters Tuesday's contest on a four-game losing streak. I expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way here, even without Devin Booker in the lineup. Note that Phoenix is 14-4 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.0 points on average in that spot. The Suns are an identical 14-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponents as a favorite of seven points or more over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 13.4 points on average in that situation. Perhaps better still, they're 9-1 ATS when following up a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 19.9 points on average along the way. As for the Rockets, they're 9-21 as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that spot and 8-20 ATS after giving up 105 points or less in their last game over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-12-22 | Wolves +4.5 v. Blazers | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. I like the T'Wolves to get some quick revenge against the Blazers on Monday after dropping Saturday's matchup on this floor by a 124-118 score. There's no reason for Minnesota to hang its head as it shot exceptionally well from the field in that contest but quite simply lost the free throw shooting competition (Portland knocked down 25 of 28 FT attempts). The T'Wolves have still held three of their last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, which is more than we can say for the Blazers, who have been lit up for 40+ made field goals in 13 of their last 14 contests. Saturday's loss could be chalked up as an anomaly for the T'Wolves as they enter Monday's game an impressive 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games against Northwest Division foes, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.3 points along the way. Here, we'll note that Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the previous four times it has sought revenge for an in-season loss against an opponent this season while Portland is 0-3 ATS after shooting 47% or better from the field in four consecutive games, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat now dropped the cash in four straight games entering Monday's clash with the similarly-slumping Pacers in Indiana. Notably, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS when in that situation on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.3 points. While Miami has held five of its last six opponents to 87 field goal attempts or fewer, Indiana has had no such luck, or interest, in controlling the pace of its opponents, yielding 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four and six of its last nine contests overall. Off an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite against the Spurs on Saturday, we'll call for the revenge-minded Heat (they lost by two points here in Indiana back in early November) to bounce back in a big way here. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed fading the Knicks two nights ago as they caught a break with Dejounte Murray going down with an injury early for the Hawks in an eventual blowout win. Here, I don't think New York will be so fortunate as it looks for its third consecutive victory. Charlotte rides a three-game losing streak but it isn't playing all that poorly. The Hornets have actually delivered the cash in consecutive games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests. Note also that they'll be seeking revenge for an earlier 134-131 loss in New York back in late October. New York is just 6-6 on the road this season where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points and I simply don't believe it has any business laying points here. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they look to snap a three-game skid and also avenge an earlier blowout loss to the Blazers this season. Denver has clamped down on its last two opponents, yielding just 81 and 72 field goal attempts but came away with nothing to show for it. The Nuggets most recent loss was particularly discouraging as they fell by a single point at home against Dallas in what should have been a terrific bounce-back spot. A lot of bettors got burned with Denver in that game and won't have much interest in backing it again here. Portland has knocked down 41 or 42 field goals in four straight games but has also gotten off 85 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests - a number I'm not convinced it will reach here. On the flip side, we've seen the Blazers relax a bit defensively of late, allowing four of its last six opponents to hoist up 89 or more FG attempts. In that type of environment, I believe the potential is there for the Nuggets to go off offensively in this one. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
12-03-22 | Magic +11 v. Raptors | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have dropped the cash in consecutive games since we successfully backed them on Monday in Brooklyn. Here, I do look for them to give the reeling Raptors a run. Toronto is coming off consecutive road defeats in New Orleans and Brooklyn. The Raptors aren't playing with a great deal of pace right now and that makes it difficult to cover lofty pointspreads such as the one we're looking at on Saturday. While Orlando is struggling, it has managed to hold four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite getting off only 81 field goal attempts themselves last night, the Magic did manage to knock down 40 of them against a tough opponent in the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Toronto checks in having made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
11-30-22 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. While the Lakers have gone 3-2 ATS over their last five games, I don't believe you're going to win many games, let alone cover a lot of pointspreads when you're allowing the opposition to get off 100 or more field goal attempts on a regular basis. That's the case with Los Angeles as each of its last five opponents have hoisted up 100+ FG attempts. Four of those five opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals and while the Lakers do catch the Blazers in a back-to-back spot, I also feel that Portland will be in a less-than-giving mood after coughing up a double-digit fourth quarter lead in a home loss against the Clippers last night. Portland has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts with the exception being a wild 132-129 overtime victory in New York last Friday. The Lakers recently enjoyed an offensive surge but have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four contests, despite the frenetic pace those games have been played at. The Blazers took the first meeting between these two teams back in October and while you might think the Lakers are poised to get their revenge here, the fact is they have defeated Portland by more than five points just once in five meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Portland (8*). | |||||||
11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
11-28-22 | Magic +10.5 v. Nets | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Monday. With Brooklyn 'fat and happy' off last night's 14-point win over Portland and Orlando looking to bounce back from four straight losses SU and three in a row ATS, I'll confidently grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Magic on Monday. Note that Orlando have Brooklyn all it could handle in two matchups on this floor last season, losing by a bucket and winning by seven. While Orlando is 1-8 on the road this season, only three of those losses came by more than 10 points. I still feel that the Nets have a fairly small margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. They've been shooting the lights out for the better part of the last two weeks but here they're asked to lay double-digits for the first time since October 29th against Indiana (a game they lost outright 125-116). We know the Magic can limit the opposition's scoring opportunities as they've held their last three opponents to 86, 82 and 77 FG attempts. Last night, the 76ers simply couldn't miss, knocking down a ridiculous 64.9% of their shots. Noting that the Magic are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times they've come off consecutive ATS losses, we'll grab all of those points on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. No question the Suns have had this one circled since dropping a wild 134-133 decision in Salt Lake City on November 18th. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that game, knocking down 51-of-91 field goal attempts in the narrow victory. Here, Phoenix catches Utah in a 3-in-4 situation, playing in a third different city over that stretch. The Jazz have had now answers defensively, allowing four of their last six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to make good on 47, 44 and 52 field goals. That spells trouble as they face a red hot Suns squad that has knocked down 42+ field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has rounded back into form defensively, holding its last three opponents to 34, 36 and 39 made field goals (the latter came on 92 FG attempts from the Pistons last night). Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Spurs (again) last night. Once again, we saw them push the pace, getting off 100 field goal attempts, but failing to make those opportunities count in a nine-point loss to the same Lakers they'll face on Saturday. Another positive, San Antonio limited Los Angeles to 83 field goal attempts. It has now held six consecutive opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Teams continue to shoot exceptionally well on this admittedly poor Spurs defense, but I do think we see Pop's crew step up in that regard tonight. Note that the Lakers are a woeful 5-17 ATS after giving up 95 points or fewer in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.5 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Pistons off their big upset win over the Jazz in Utah two nights ago as that marked their third consecutive ATS win, marking their longest such streak of the season. Detroit has shot exceptionally well over its last several games, knocking down 43, 47, 45 and 44 field goals over its last four contests, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of those games. Here, it runs into a Suns squad that has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and its last two foes to just 34 and 36 made field goals. On the flip side, Phoenix is playing at a tremendous pace and making the most of it, hoisting up 94 or more FG attempts in six of its last seven contests and making good on 43+ field goals in five straight games. Noting that the Suns are 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they've come off consecutive double-digit victories, I don't anticipate a letdown off a 10-point victory over the Lakers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets have absolutely shot the lights out lately, knocking down 40+ field goals in five straight games and 44 or more in each of their last three. Yet they've still been held to 'only' 112 points or less in three of those contests as their pace still isn't up to par, getting off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. Meanwhile, they're playing with fire at the other end of the floor, as each of their last six foes have hoisted up 91 or more FG attempts with their last three getting off 99+. The Pacers are fit to take advantage, noting that they've made good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall, despite attempting 90 or more field goals in only three of those contests. At the other end of the floor, Indiana has limited three of its last four opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts and four of its last six foes to fewer than 40 makes. Last time out, the T'Wolves quite simply couldn't miss, shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field, yet still won by 'only' 14 points. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 5:10 pm et on Friday. With this line creeping up to +5 I'll step in with a play on the underdog Hornets on Friday. Charlotte is going to get its scoring opportunities, after all it has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games, knocking down 42+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been playing at a slower pace than we've come to expect out of it, getting off 85 or fewer FG attempts in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the T'Wolves last two opponents have racked up 90 and 96 FG attempts but have shot incredibly poor. Noting that Minnesota has won just once in the last five meetings in this series and that victory came at home, by only six points, we'll grab all the points we can get with the Hornets here. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -1.5 | 112-98 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the well-rested Raptors as they take the floor following a three-day break, hosting a Nets squad that just got dominated in Philadelphia last night. Brooklyn, once considered one of the league's better defensive teams, has been giving up far too many scoring opportunities with each of its last five opponents hoisting up 91 or more field goal attempts. The Nets have yielded a whopping 99 field goal attempts to each of their last two opponents. On the flip side, Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in six consecutive games. Its only saving grace has been the fact that it has shot the lights out in its last two contests - something I don't expect it to do against Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors couldn't contain the Hawks fast-paced offense in Atlanta last time out but have still limited five of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, their own offense has been on an uptick despite a number of key contributors being out of the lineup, making good on 40, 44 and 48 field goals over their last three contests. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Celtics | 112-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a pair of extremely tightly-contested games last season and I would expect nothing different in their first matchup this season. Boston was red hot heading into Monday's matchup with the revenge-minded Bulls in Chicago. There were warning signs, however, as the Celtics had allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. We can make that nine out of their last 11 now as Chicago knocked down 46 field goals in a convincing 121-107 victory. Now Boston will have to deal with a Dallas squad that has limited each of its last five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and will be in a foul mood off a one-point home loss against Denver on Sunday. The Mavericks have had their issues offensively but I'm confident a breakout is imminent and this looks like an ideal spot given the Celtics recent vulnerability defensively. With Boston's pace slowing over the last few games, getting off 88, 85 and 87 FG attempts over that stretch, and Dallas' tendency to lock down opposing offenses, yielding 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests, this has all the makings of a game that goes right down to the wire. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -6.5 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The absence of Chris Paul has provided some solid opportunities to back the Suns at discounted prices and I believe that's the case again on Tuesday as they host the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a prime letdown spot here after shooting the lights out in consecutive games against the Spurs and Pistons (both at home). Last time out, they actually allowed the Spurs to get off a whopping 105 field goal attempts but San Antonio couldn't take advantage, shooting an awful 39% in the loss. The Lakers aren't likely to see anything close to that level of inefficiency from the Suns here. Phoenix is really forcing the issue offensively right now, hoisting up 94+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games and making good on 43 or more field goals in four straight contests. On the flip side, I like the fact that Phoenix got back on track defensively in Sunday's win over the Knicks, holding New York to only 85 FG attempts after its previous two opponents had gotten off 91+. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. We won with Utah the last time these two teams met a couple of weeks ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. Utah continues to afford itself plenty of scoring opportunities, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Over its last two contests it has made good on 51 and 42 field goals and should give the Clippers all they can handle here. Los Angeles obviously plays at a considerably slower pace, getting off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six contests. The Clips made good on 44 field goals in Saturday's rout of the lowly Spurs but that marked its highest total of the season. In stark contrast, Utah has eclipsed that number on five previous occasions. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Spurs +7 v. Lakers | 92-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have now dropped four games in a row to open this road trip so they'll be looking to salvage the finale as they stay in Los Angeles for a back-to-back against the Lakers on Sunday night. I like their chances of at least keeping things competitive. Note that San Antonio, whether game-script related or not, continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities here on this trip. Over its last three contests, San Antonio has allowed just 79, 83 and 81 field goal attempts. It's been a much different story for the Lakers defensively as they've allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up 92 or more FG attempts. Four of Los Angeles' last five opponents have made good on more than 40 field goals, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Spurs offense tonight. Despite last night's poor showing against a tough Clippers defense, the Spurs have still knocked down 43+ field goals in five of their last seven contests. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nets | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Grizzlies are dealing with a number of key absences for this game I believe we're seeing an overreaction from the betting marketplace as a result. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nets made good on more than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies continue to find their scoring opportunities, regardless who is in the lineup, getting off 91+ field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They should continue to do so here, noting that Brooklyn has yielded 91+ FG attempts to three consecutive opponents heading in. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Spurs +8 v. Clippers | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs have lost three straight games to open this road trip but I look for them to give the Clippers all they can handle on Saturday night in Los Angeles. San Antonio has actually done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively speaking of course) on the road this season. Only once have the Spurs allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts away from home and that came in a win in Indiana back on October 21st. Meanwhile, San Antonio has been making the most of its own scoring opportunities lately, making good on 43+ field goals in five of its last six contests. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down. They've attempted 81 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games overall, making good on 34 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. Only twice in their last 11 games have they knocked down more than 41 field goals which makes covering a lofty pointspread such as this one difficult on most nights. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs got drilled by the Warriors in San Francisco last night but I expect them to put up more of a fight against the Blazers in Portland on Tuesday. San Antonio actually got off a whopping 100 field goal attempts in that setback. It simply couldn't make the most of its opportunities. At the same time, it did limit the Warriors to 'only' 88 field goal attempts but the Warriors shot the lights out, as they're known to do on a regular basis. Here, I don't expect San Antonio to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Blazers, who have made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of their last five contests. Portland is having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last five games. Note that this matchup favored the Spurs last season with San Antonio scoring 114, 133, 130 and 113 points while going a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four meetings. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Suns +1.5 v. Heat | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat are coming off consecutive wins but those both came against the lowly Hornets. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge as they host a Suns squad that checks in off a stunning 17-point loss in Orlando on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Phoenix 'get right' against a sagging Heat defense that has allowed five of its last eight opponents to knock down 41+ field goals, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. Also note that Miami has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight contests. The Suns are an impressive 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games after losing outright as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (9*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Cavs -5 v. Kings | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Cavaliers as they look to bounce back from a two-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. That was a back-to-back and three-in-four spot for Cleveland. Here, it should benefit from having had yesterday off in the California sunshine as it looks to get back on track against a road-weary Kings squad that wrapped a four-game in eight-night road trip that took it from East to West, wrapping up with Monday's stop in San Francisco. The Kings have been extremely vulnerable defensively this season - as expected - allowing 43, 44, 43 and 44 made field goals in regulation time over their last four contests and 41+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been held to 37, 41, 41 and 37 made field goals in regulation time over its last four contests and has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six overall. That doesn't bode well as it prepares to face a smothering Cavs defense that has limited its last three opponents to 83, 87 and 79 FG attempts and seven of 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season. Cleveland has been thriving offensively, hitting 41+ field goals in seven of its last nine games including 42 or more in three of its last four contests. That's despite playing at a fairly slow pace (it has gotten off fewer than 90 FG attempts in six of its last seven games and 81, 84 and 83 over its last three contests). Here, the pace could tick up and in that situation I'm confident the Cavs can go off offensively. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers have cashed in a favorite role in each of their last two games but I don't think we should make a habit of backing this team laying points. Note that Los Angeles continues to have a tough enough time getting shots off, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all nine games this season and 84 or fewer on seven occasions. Meanwhile, the Jazz are getting most of the attention due to their scoring prowess, but they can play some defense as well, limiting four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The only team that topped that number over that stretch was Memphis in a game Utah won by a score of 121-105. On the flip side, Utah checks in having made good on 42+ field goals in seven of 10 contests this season. The Clips are generally considered to be an elite defensive team but they've yet to really hit their stride in that regard this season, with the Rockets (twice) and Lakers being the only two teams they've held to fewer than 40 made field goals to date. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Blazers v. Suns -9 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. I think the Suns may have forgotten they actually had to show up to secure the revenge victory over the upstart Blazers last night. While Phoenix shot poorly, Portland seemingly couldn't miss as it pulled out another narrow two-point victory (it won the season's earlier meeting by the same margin at home). Here, I look for the Suns to bounce back. Phoenix has still held seven of its eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts this season. Last night marked the first time in four games that it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Meanwhile, Portland has still yet to get off more than 90 FG attempts in a game this season and while it has managed to slow its last two opponents, it has still yielded 91+ FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last seven games. Prior to this season, the Suns had reeled off three straight wins in this series, including a pair of double-digit victories on this floor. Expect Phoenix to deliver some payback on Saturday. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Thunder in the first matchup between these two teams in Denver back on October 22nd and I won't hesitate to come back with the same play in this rematch in Oklahoma City on Thursday. Obviously, Denver was in a tougher scheduling spot on that night, playing the second of back-to-backs off a big upset win over the defending champion Warriors on San Francisco the night previous. The Thunder were in the midst of a three-game losing streak to open the season, however. Here, OKC enters off four consecutive victories, both SU and ATS. The Thunder have been tremendously consistent offensively, stuffing boxscores to the tune of 41+ made field goals in each of their last six games and 44 or more in each of their last three. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, relatively-speaking, holding six consecutive opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. They've also limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, and that includes an overtime period against the Mavericks two games back. The Nuggets on the other hand have allowed three straight and four of their last five opponents to hoist up 90+ field goal attempts. Of their seven opponents so far this season, six managed to knock down 40+ field goals. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Blazers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got their lunch handed to them in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Jazz in Salt Lake City over the weekend. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Blazers in Portland. Note that Memphis continues to 'play the right way', limiting its last four opponents to 87, 83, 87 and 89 field goal attempts. Unfortunately, those four opponents shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Blazers doing off a scintillating shooting performance of their own. Portland has been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of its six games this season and last Friday's rout of the Rockets marked the first time all season the Blazers got off 90+ field goal attempts. Defensively, the Blazers haven't been good. They've yielded 40+ made field goals to their opponents in each of their last five games. Four of their last five opponents got off 91+ FG attempts. Look for the Grizzlies to take full advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Utah at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are off to a stunning 6-2 start to the season and are fresh off sweeping the Grizzlies in a two-game set in Salt Lake City. I can't help but feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday in Dallas, however. The Mavericks got a bit of a scare at home against the Magic on Sunday, playing in a back-to-back spot off an overtime loss to the Thunder the night previous. Now they're at home, off consecutive days off for the first time in a couple of weeks and I look for them to turn in a much sharper performance on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held all six opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts this season. The two previous times we've seen them play on 2+ days' rest this season they've shot a combined 50% from the field while holding those two opponents to just 79 and 76 FG attempts. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing a ridiculous 50 made field goals against Memphis, and the Grizzlies were without Ja Morant in that contest. Five of their last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts and should the Mavs get into that range on Wednesday, I'm confident we'll see them hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Magic v. Thunder -3 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the short number with the Thunder as they host the reeling Magic on Tuesday night. Orlando checks in 1-6 on the season but the fact that it has gone 2-0 or 1-0-1 ATS in its last two games affords us a reasonable price to fade the Magic here. Orlando has made good on 37 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games and I'm not convinced it will have enough scoring opportunities to keep pace with the Thunder here. Note that Oklahoma City has been as consistent as it gets offensively, knocking down 41+ field goals in five straight games entering this contest. On the flip side, the Thunder have held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns -2.5 | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter Tuesday's showdown sporting 2-1 records, although they've looked very different in doing so. Hidden in the Warriors positive start has been their poor defensive play. They've allowed two of their three opponents to get off 93+ field goal attempts with all three of the teams they've faced having knocked down 40+ field goals. In the one game where they did limit the Nuggets to only 86 field goal attempts, they still allowed a whopping 128 points in a losing effort. The Suns, meanwhile, are in midseason form defensively. They've held their first three opponents to just 75, 82 and 82 FG attempts, allowing 36 or fewer made field goals in all three contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has knocked down 40, 43 and 43 field goals itself. Despite getting little offensive production from DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul, the Suns still scored 112 points in a 17-point win over the full-strength Clippers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Clippers v. Thunder +9.5 | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Thunder are missing two of their best players in Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but it's not as if the Clippers are setting the world on fire in the early going this season, and they have their own key absence to deal with in Paul George. Oklahoma City enters this contest still winless on the campaign at 0-3 although all three games have been relatively close (decided by 10 points or less). Over their last two games, the Thunder held the Nuggets and T'Wolves - two high-powered offensive teams - to just 85 and 88 field goal attempts, respectively. Unfortunately both of those opponents quite simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate the Clippers doing the same here. Note that Los Angeles has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games, making good on just 37, 41 and 36 of those shots. The Thunder have afforded themselves far more opportunities at the very least, hoisting up 99, 94 and 94 FG attempts. In this early stage of the season, the Clippers haven't exactly been locking down the opposition, yielding their first three opponents 94, 85 and 93 FG attempts. Noting that these two teams have split their last four meetings with three of those four contests being decided by five points or less, I'll grab the points with the home side on Tuesday. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We cashed a ticket fading the 76ers on opening night in Boston but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back them as they return home to host the Bucks on Thursday. I'm just not sure that Milwaukee gets enough scoring opportunities to ultimately keep Philadelphia within arm's reach in this game. Note that the Bucks struggled to get their shots off during the preseason. They topped out at 41 made field goals in a 10-point loss to the Hawks but they needed 97 field goal attempts to get there. Outside of that they were limited to just 37, 33, 37 and 34 made field goals in their other four preseason tilts. The 76ers made good on 40-of-80 FG attempts in their opener against the Celtics. Boston simply shot the lights out in that contest as Philadelphia did limit it do just 82 FG attempts. Milwaukee has won three straight meetings here in Philadelphia. I look for that streak to end here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Only one game separated these two teams near the Eastern Conference basement last season with Detroit holding that narrow advantage. Both franchises continue to look to the future. Here, in Tuesday's season-opener I believe the Pistons are being given a little too much respect. Detroit may have plenty of young talent on its roster but it couldn't get a stop in the preseason, allowing its four opponents to knock down 46, 38, 45 and 46 field goals. The outlier came in a contest the Pistons still lost by six points in New Orleans. On the flip side, the Pistons made good on just 33, 31, 35 and 40 field goals in those four games. The latter performance took a whopping 102 FG attempts to get there and Detroit still lost that contest by 15 points against Memphis. The Magic went 4-1 in the preseason and actually showed a pulse on defense, limiting the opposition to just 36, 34, 35, 37 and 35 made field goals. It yielded its opponents more than 82 FG attempts only once in those five games. We saw steady improvement from Orlando offensively over the course of the preseason, culminating with it knocking down 39+ field goals in each of its last three games. Now it gets a boost with the expected return of Jalen Suggs for Tuesday's opener. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I love everything about the Lakers entering the new season, in a very strange sort of way. Consider them a beautiful mess under first-year head coach Darvin Ham. Here, we're catching more than a handful of points with Los Angeles in a spot few expect much out of it on the road against the defending champion Warriors. Of course, Golden State is a well-oiled machine but like I said, I'm more intrigued by the Lakers at this early stage of the season. There's room for improvement at the center position with Damian Jones, formerly of the Kings and Thomas Bryant, who comes over from the Wizards two true wild cards. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, for now. Russell Westbrook might be injured. He might start. He might come off the bench. Again, another complete wild card. And then there's the whole Pat Beverley situation. As odd as it may sound I believe it all adds up to a far more interesting and potentially improved Lakers squad and this is a perfect opportunity to make a statement right out of the gate. Interestingly, the Lakers check in 27-19 ATS the last 46 times they've played on the road with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Warriors are a mediocre 33-35 ATS in their last 68 contests when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). | |||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. We missed with our big play on the Warriors but did cash the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. That was obviously a painful loss as Golden State entered the fourth quarter with a 12-point lead but couldn't make it stand up. Chalk it up to a case of the Celtics simply not missing from beyond the arc. Boston knocked down 21 three-pointers in that contest - similar to what we saw in Game 2 last round against the Heat. You may remember how Game 3 went as Miami controlled proceedings from the opening tip and cruised to an outright underdog road win. Here, the Warriors will look to bounce back on their home floor and I expect them to do just that. Note that Golden State is 25-12 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points on average in that situation. Boston made good on 43 field goals in Game 1 and that's notable as it hasn't posted consecutive 40+ field goal games since Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee back in the second round. Note that it lost the second of those games both SU and ATS. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*). | |||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks not surprisingly struggled to get back up for Game 1 of this series after overcoming the top-seeded Suns in a come-from-behind victory last round. We won with the Warriors two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Mavs here. Dallas actually did an alright job of slowing the Warriors offense in Game 1, holding it to just 82 field goal attempts. The Warriors quite simply shot the lights out. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here, however, noting that Golden State similarly shot 64% in a 142-112 Game 3 rout of Memphis last round before knocking down just 40% of its shots while eking out a 101-98 victory in Game 4. We know the Mavs are capable of better defensively, noting that they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, going 9-5 ATS while suffering consecutive ATS losses only once over that stretch. Here, we'll also point out that Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 20+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.2 points in that situation. Golden State has now held consecutive opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - the first time it has accomplished that feat all playoffs. It has also posted back-to-back ATS victories for the first time since starting its opening round series against Denver with three in a row. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Mavericks for rallying back from a 3-2 series deficit to oust the Suns in seven games, delivering an incredible knockout punch on the road in Game 7 on Sunday. There's no question, Dallas has been at its best when facing adversity in these playoffs (Game 2 without Luka Doncic in round one against Utah and Game 3 after digging an 0-2 hole last round against Phoenix come to mind). Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Mavs best punch as both teams feel their way around Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State has the benefit of playing at home, where it has gone 37-10 this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game, and also checks in well-rested but not likely rusty following just four off days. I like the fact that the Warriors come in seeking revenge for consecutive losses against the Mavs, noting that they've gone 24-12 ATS when playing with 'double-revenge' over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average along the way. For their part, the Mavs check in just 4-6 ATS when coming off an outright underdog road victory this season, as is the case here, and 1-3 ATS when following up consecutive wins by 15+ points. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday. I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*). | |||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 5 of this series two nights ago - a never-in-doubt 35-point laugher. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way, however, and back the 76ers as they look to force a seventh game in this series. The home side has won and covered in all five games in this series. Here, we'll look for the Sixers to extend that streak noting that they've gone 40-24 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Better still, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Off a 120-point explosion in Game 5, I don't see a lot of upside for the Heat offense here. Note that the Sixers have held them to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four games, no small feat after Miami had gotten off 92+ FG attempts in three of its previous four contests prior to that stretch. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out on Tuesday. Philadelphia on the other hand, had an awful shooting night in Miami last time out but on a positive note did manage to get off a series-high 85 FG attempts. Note that the Sixers managed to score 99 and 116 points in winning both previous home games in this series despite attempting just 67 and 68 field goals. If they can find a way to get that pace up a bit again here, I'm confident they can hang a crooked number on the Heat. Take Philadelphia (9*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix over Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Mavericks showed up defensively in Game 3 of this series and delivered a much-needed 103-94 win. Phoenix only managed to get off 76 field goal attempts in that contest yet was still reasonably competitive. Compare that with Dallas, which got off 90 FG attempts but still only made good on 40 of those, noting the Mavs have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. In stark contrast, prior to Friday's game the Suns had made good on 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. Here, I look for the Suns to make the necessary adjustments and take a strange-hold on this series, noting that they're an incredible 16-3 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.4 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (7*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward. Take Golden State (6*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Most already have the Warriors advancing past the Grizzlies in this series, especially after Memphis came so close but seemed so far in Sunday's Game 1 loss. There were positives for the Grizzlies to take away from that setback, however. They got off 95 field goal attempts. That's notable considering the Warriors allowed more than 87 field goal attempts just once in their opening round series against Denver. They also shot better from beyond the arc and got to the free throw line four more times than Golden State. We know there's still some inconsistency in the Warriors game - perhaps a product of so many key pieces being in and out of the lineup over the course of the season. Memphis knows it can hang with Golden State and a one-point loss in the series opener won't do anything to change that. The Grizzlies have still won three of five meetings between these two teams this season. They know, however, that Game 2 is essentially a 'must-win' as they're unlikely to take three of four games in San Francisco, where the Warriors are 34-10 SU this season. Take Memphis (5*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics didn't bring their 'A' game in the opener of this series or anything close to it. They managed to knock down just 28 field goals yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as they were coming off a five-day layoff thanks to their opening round sweep of the Nets. Here, we'll confidently back the C's noting they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS after being held to 95 points or less in their previous game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.6 points in that spot. The Bucks on the other hand are a woeful 18-30 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Milwaukee has now reeled off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS but streaks like that are uncommon in the postseason and I look for it to grind to a halt here as the Celtics win this one going away to get back in the series. Take Boston (9*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. | |||||||
04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Few are giving the Pelicans any chance of winning this series. While I tend to agree, I do expect them to give the Suns all they can handle in Game 2 on Tuesday night. Everything went right for Phoenix in Game 1. It shot the lights out (just shy of 54% from the field). Interestingly, however, New Orleans actually got plenty of looks, hoisting up 95 field goal attempts. It got to the free throw line five more times than Phoenix. In other words, there's reason for optimism entering Game 2. The Pelicans quite simply didn't make their shots in Game 1. Keep in mind, this is a team that had made good on 40+ field goals in 23 of their last 24 games entering this series. Also note that the Pelicans have limited three of their last seven opponents to 78 or fewer FG attempts, including the Suns in Game 1 (they attempted 78 field goals). Here, we'll note that New Orleans is 36-24 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points on average in that situation. The Suns have outscored opponents by only 4.1 points on average when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons (40-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Pelicans haven't been a great road team this season going 18-25 SU (one of those wins came here in Phoenix), they've only been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points. I'm expecting a competitive affair on Tuesday. Take New Orleans (9*). | |||||||
04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors rode the emotional wave of Steph Curry's return to an easy 16-point win in Saturday's series-opener. Golden State was ahead by 20 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest as the Nuggets simply didn't bring enough intensity to stay competitive. I do expect a strong response from Denver on Monday, noting that it has already won twice in San Francisco this season. Here, we'll note that the Nuggets check in 17-7 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 14-4 ATS when on the road seeking to avenge consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. Interestingly, the Warriors have only gotten off 81, 81 and 82 field goal attempts over their last three games. In fact, they've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight games overall. Denver on the other hand, has hoisted up 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four games. That while holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 90 attempts from the field. I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw on Saturday as the Nuggets look to even up the series before heading back to Denver. Take Denver (6*). | |||||||
04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way the Suns have been forcing the issue down the stretch, regardless who is in or out of the lineup, getting off 92+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games and scoring 121, 109 and 111 points in the process, winning two of those three games. Here, they should find continued success against a Kings squad that waved the white flag a long time ago and checks in having allowed 41+ made field goals in 11 consecutive games, while making good on fewer than 40 field goals themselves in six of their last 10 contests. Sacramento has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up just 81, 81, 76 and 86 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Phoenix meanwhile has knocked down 50, 42 and 46 field goals over its last three games and has made good on 42, 44 and 46 field goals in its previous three meetings with Sacramento this season. Defensively, we've seen the Suns clamp down lately, yielding opponents' fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They're just one game removed from limiting the Clippers to 33-of-75 shooting. Take Phoenix (6*). | |||||||
04-03-22 | Wolves v. Rockets +12.5 | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is simply too many points for the T'Wolves to be laying given how poorly they've been playing defensively. Minnesota checks in having yielded 49, 48 and 46 made field goals over its last three games but is coming off a 106-100 win as a three-point underdog in Denver two nights ago. It's not as if the Wolves have been unstoppable offensively lately either, knocking down 43 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone winless through the first three games on their current four-game homestand. With that being said, those three previous losses have come by just 3, 3 and 5 points. Despite playing at a fast pace, six of Houston's last seven opponents have made good on 44 or fewer field goals. We've seen the Rockets start pushing the pace again over their last couple of games, getting off 94 and 97 field goal attempts against the Kings. They should be afforded a similar number of opportunities here with Minnesota having yielded opponents 90+ FG attempts in five of its last nine contests. The T'Wolves 'only' won by 18 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams despite shooting a ridiculous 55-of-108 from the field. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
04-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. 76ers | 114-144 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Philadelphia at 12:40 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Hornets in this early matchup on Saturday. Charlotte has quietly won eight of its last 10 games overall. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 straight games. Simply put, they're rolling right now. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to scuffle along. They dropped an ugly 102-94 decision in Detroit two nights ago. In stark contrast to the Hornets, the Sixers have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, their defense has sagged, yielding 45, 44 and 41 made field goals in their last three games. While ordinarily I would assume that Philadelphia could frustrate Charlotte by slowing the pace here, I'm not sure that will be the case noting that the Hornets have actually limited four of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them lately, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals over their last two games. It's not as if those two contests came against elite defensive teams either. The first was against a 'defense-optional' Pelicans squad and the next came against a reeling Cavaliers defense. Here, Chicago will face rival New York, noting that you would have to go back to March 13th against Brooklyn to find the last time the Knicks allowed more than 42 made field goals in a game. The Knicks have actually won three games in a row SU but did lose ATS yesterday in Detroit, which actually works in our favor here with the line creeping up in favor of the Bulls. Note that there's been little to choose between these two teams this season with all three of the previous matchups decided by six points or less. I'll grab the points here. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Warriors +3 v. Hawks | 110-121 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Yes, the Warriors have been unsteady, particularly since losing Steph Curry to injury. However, they did rebound with a big win in Miami two nights ago (with Klay Thompson resting) and I look for them to build on that performance here. Note that the Warriors continue to play exceptional defense. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of their last four opponents has managed to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to tonight's opponent, Atlanta, which has allowed 12 straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. Incredibly, you would have to go all the way back to January 28th against Boston to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. The Warriors have accomplished that feat four times since then. The Hawks haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively either. Yes, they went off thanks to Trae Young's heroics at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. However, they've been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six games. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers suffered a disappointing home loss to the lowly Kings last night, snapping a two-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce back with a better performance against a much tougher opponents in Memphis on Thursday. Note that the Pacers continue to thrive offensively, making good on 41+ field goals in eight straight games entering Thursday's contest. On the flip side, we've seen Indiana hold its last three opponents to 79, 81 and 82 field goal attempts. I don't need to tell you that if they're able to continue that trend here it will be awfully tough for the Grizzlies to cover such a lofty pointspread. Memphis is coming off a dominant win over the Nets at home last night. Like the Pacers, they've continued to roll offensively, however they've actually allowed 41+ made field goals in four of their last five contests - only the reeling Rockets failed to reach that mark over that stretch. Here, I think there's a good chance we see Memphis 'manage' proceedings, noting that it has a four-game in six-night stretch on deck, beginning Saturday against the defending champion Bucks. Take Indiana (9*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |