Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-27-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the OVER D-Backs/Mariners. These are two teams in need of a win. Arizona is 12-14 and Seattle is 13-12. The Diamondbacks have lost back-to-back games now, scoring just one run in each. Seattle has now seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but that's signficant to note as the M's have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Slade Cecconi (1-0, 3.00 ERA and 0.33 WHIP) looks poised for regression here in the PNW in my opinion for the visitors, while at the same time I don't see Mariners' starter George Kirby (2-2, 5.33 ERA and 1.30 WHIP) correcting his problems immediately. With each starter getting chased early, everything does finally point to a higher-scoring OVER between these two normally lower-scoring teams. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-26-24 | Diamondbacks v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the OVER D-Backs/Mariners. I think we're going to see some offensive fireworks here in the opener of this Interleague battle. Arizona hands the ball to Zac Gallen (3-1, 3.00 ERA), while the home side counters with the erratic Emerson Hancock (2-2, 6.10.) Seattle has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after taking two of three at Texas, but note that the Mariners have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is a little low, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-25-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Jays/Royals. We have two really decent starters going head-to-head here in this getaway game, but after the first three games have all gone UNDER the number, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks here on Thursday afternoon. Toronto goes with Jose Berrios (4-0, 0.85 ERA) who has been unbelievable, but who clearly is poised for regression. And the home side counters with Cole Ragans (0-2, 4.32), who hasn't been terrible or anything, but certainly nothing to write home about. The overall situation though for this one definitely points to much more of a "slug-fest" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-24-24 | Blue Jays v. Royals +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUNLINE BLOWOUT on the Royals. In a contest that I see being tight, possibly even decided in extra innings, I'm going to suggest to lay this very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Yariel Rodriguez (0-0, 2.35 ERA) gets the call for Toronto. In my opinion he looks poised for regression. The Royals counter with the red hot Alec Marsh (3-0, 3.22), who continues to show consistency at the start of the season here. Toronto is once again getting too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. The outright is possible, but the official call is to grab KC on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-23-24 | Orioles -149 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. I'm contrarian by nature, but I don't always follow that rule or methodology for every single play. The public is heavily on Baltimore here, and rightfully so in my opinion. These two teams are heading in opposite directions, and Baltimore has the clear starting pitching advantage, with Grayson Rodriguez (3-0, 2.63 ERA) getting the call for the Orioles, and Griffin Canning (0-3, 8.05) countering for the Angels. Baltimore has control of the AL East now and I'm expecting it to keep the foot on the gas for at least one more game here. Great overall value, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-22-24 | Brewers v. Pirates -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
This is 10* NL BOB on the Pirates. After back-to-back series losses going 0-6, I think Pittsburgh will bounce back and find a way to win the opener of this one vs. the Brewers. Milwaukee now looks primed for a letdown after four straight wins, including three straight at St. Louis over the weekend. The Brewers go with Joe Ross (1-1, 4.91 ERA), who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings a loss to the Padres on Monday. The home side counters with Jared Jones (1-2, 3.13), who allowed just one hit over five scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Mets last time out. Great value here on PITTSBURGH for a number of different reasons. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-21-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Padres | 3-6 | Loss | -180 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE BLOWOUT on the Jays. I love betting against really hot teams, and I love betting on really cold teams. Or at least, I like predicting when a hot streak will end, or when a cold streak will end. Rarely do I ever try to ride a hot streak, or go against a cold team, but in this case I believe it's warranted to back the Jays again here to keep the good times rolling. This time though I will in fact also lay the chalk for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Toronto goes with Chris Bassitt (2-2, 4.03 ERA), while San Diego counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 6.29.) Bassitt is coming off a commanding performance vs. the Yanks, allowing one run over 6.1 innings while striking out five. Musgrove conceded three runs with four walks over six innings in a victory over the Brewers in his last outing. These line-ups and bullpens are the differene-maker as well for me, as Toronto has the upper-hand in every metric in those departments as well right now. Long story short, the play is TORONTO on the RUN-LINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-20-24 | Mets +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the Mets RUNLINE. Two teams moving in opposite directions, and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets turn to Jose Butto (0-0, 0.75 ERA), who struck out nine over six scoreless in a win over the Royals on Sunday. Gavin Stone (1-1, 6.14) counters for the home side. He gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Padres last time out, but he's been erratic. Look for NEW YORK to, at the very least, keep this one competitive late. The play is on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-19-24 | Astros v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the OVER Astros/Nats. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally predicting some runs to be plated here tonight in the Nation's capital. The Astros are 6-14, including just 2-5 on the road. A big reason behind their poor start this year has been because their starting rotation started off the season with several injuries, including to ace Justin Verlander. Verlander though is back and ready to make his first start. Houston has only managed to score seven runs over its last 29 innings, so the visitors are obviously looking for a turnaround at the plate this week. Verlander is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington, but the Nationals are playing well right now and that was then and this is now. Verlander, despite being given the green light here in his first start, will be limited somewhat. the home side counters with MacKenzie Gore (2-0, 2.81 ERA), who is off five shutout frames over Oakland last time out. Gore has looked good early, but regression feels/seems imminent in my opinion. Ultimately I'm expectin gthese starters to get chased early and that'll help in pushing this total OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is s 10* RUNLINE BOOKIEKILLER on the D-Backs. Two teams that are under .500, but who are both 3-2 in their last five, will collide here looking to keep making strides in the positive direction. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace. Ryne Nelson (1-2, 5.27 ERA) gets the call for the D-Backs and he's coming off his best outing of the season so far, conceding one run over six innings, walking one and striking out four in the eventual 4-2 home win over St. Louis. I say he keeps that positive progression rolling here. He'll be opposed by Logan Webb (1-1, 3.80), who also comes in off a strong outing, allowing on run over seven innings in an 11-2 win at Tampa Bay. I just think that the Giants are really overpriced here, considering their inconsistent offensive ways. Seven of these teams last five games here in San Francisco have been decided by a single run. Lay the price, the play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-17-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Rockies/Phillies. Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, including in the Phillies first two victories here in the series after yesterday's 5-0 shutout win. Colorado has now lost four in a row. It's now seen the total go "under" in five straight, but note that the Rockies have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their alst five after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Ryan Feltner is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA for the Rockies, while Cristopher Sanchez is 0-2 with a 3.52 ERA for the Phillies. Colorado has struggled to plate runs, but after yesterday's shutout, today's starting matchup is more favorable. Look for this total to creep OVER the number as the game enters the latter frames. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-17-24 | Reds v. Mariners -128 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MONEY PLAY on the Mariners. I like the Mariners to complete the sweep here. The Reds have struggled against the "better" teams in the early going and I say that trend continues here in the finale of this Interleague contest. Seattle has rebounded from lost two of three from Chicago and I say that momentum continues here. Two really good starters going head-to-head here with Andrew Abbot (1-1, 2.60 ERA) getting the call for the visitors and Bryce Miller (2-1, 1.96) countering for the home side. I really like Abbott and would argue he's been the best overall in the rotation to this point, but Miller at this price at home is just too good to turn down in the end for me. Lay the price, the play is SEATTLE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-16-24 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST GOM on the Jays runline. I think that laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is where the value lies with this pick. Toronto won 3-1 here in yesterday's series opener and it's now won three straight. New York is now trending in the other direciton after two straight losses. I say those trends continue here for at least one more day as well. Two really good starters going head-to-head here with Carlos Rodon (1-0, 2.87 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 2.30 ERA.) Kikuchi this price at home though is just too good to turn down, despite the opponent. Look for TORONTO to punch its second straight win in this important early divisional series. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the OVER Cubs/D-Backs. Arizona took two of three from St. Louis here over the weekend. It's seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after yesterday's 5-0 win over the Cards. Note though that Arizona has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten off a shutout home win. The Cubs saw all three games go UNDER in Seattle over the weekend, but note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Ben Brown (0-0, 6.10 ERA) goes for the Cubs, while the D-Backs counter with Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.29.) The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends though all do indeed point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-14-24 | Cubs v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cubs/Mariners. Both sides have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a slug-fest here in this afternoon interleague matchup from what will be a sunny day in the PNW. This is the rubber-match between the teams and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks. Chicago hands the ball to Javier Assad (1-0, 1.64 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.89.) Assad is primed for regression in my opinion, while at the same time, it's hard for me to see Castillo just "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his problems. The Mariners have now seen the total dip below the number in five straight, but that's signficiant for us to take note of as Seattle has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is indeed a bit low, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-13-24 | Cubs v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Cubs/Mariners. I had a play on the Mariners last night and that was an easy cash in Seattle's eventual 4-2 victory. Seattle has now won two straight and it's seen the total go UNDER in four straight. Chicago has been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over its last five contests and I expect this pattern to continue here tonight in the PNW. The Cubs go with Shota Imanaga (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who went four scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Padres in his last outing. After ten scoreless and 12 K's to open the season, regression is imminent in my opinion. And the Mariners counter with Emerson Hancock, who is 1-1 with an 11.42 ERA. Clearly Hancock can only go one way with his performance as well, but I don't see him just "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his issues right away. Either way, I'm expecting these starters to get chased early and because of that we can also look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-12-24 | Cubs v. Mariners -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Mariners. Seattle got a much-needed 6-1 win at Toronto last night to finish 2-4 on its road trip between Milwaukee and the Jays. Now I think they keep that momentum rolling here at home vs. the Cubs, who lost 10-2 at San Diego last night. The Mariners' players were pumped after that victory and I think they'll keep it rolling here at home in this favorable matchup on the mound. Jordan Wicks (0-1, 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the Cubs, while Bryce Miller (1-1, 3.00) counters for the home side. Wicks hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in either of his first two starts this year and has looked shaky overall, while Miller beat Milwaukee 5-3 on Saturday, going seven scoreless, allowing three hits and striking out seven and walking just one. All things considered, I feel this to be the very defintion of "great line value." Lay the short price on the MARINERS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-11-24 | Astros v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Royals RUNLINE. I think we're getting great value on the home side on the runline option. Why are the Astros favored here? Because the public likes them more? Because they're just 4-9 and the Royals are 8-4. Hunter Brown is 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.57 WHIP for Houston, while Brady Singer is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA and 0.53 WHIP for the Royals. KC has won the first two games of this series, including yesterday by a score of 11-2. Will the Royals take the foot off the gas, or have mercy? Can the Astros flip a switch and start dominating right now? I think the answer to both those questions is: "no!" Houston's big bats have struggled against Singer in the past as well. I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with KANSAS CITY. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL WEST TOW on the UNDER A's/Rangers. Considering the current form of these two starters, I believe the correct call as far as the total is concerned is definitely on the UNDER. Oakland will turn to Ross Stripling, who so far is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA. He's looked really solid so far in the early going for the Athletics though. Last time out he gave up just one run over seven innings, walked none and struck out in a loss to the Red Sox (Oakland's offense though was shutout in that one for the second time in the previous three games.) And that offense could definitely struggle again here on Wednesday facing Rangers' starter Cody Bradford, who is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and who also gave up just one run in his last start. With these two starters taking center stage like I suspect, look for this one to turn into a classic "duel" in Texas this evening. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-09-24 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -108 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is 10* AL BOOKIEKILLER on the Jays. I like the Jays to build off their 5-2 series opening win here. Both teams have been struggling, and both of these starters have so far struggled. But each team, and each starter is better than what these early results have shown. Seattle goes with George Kirby (1-1, 5.23 ERA0, while the Jays counter with Chris Bassitt (0-2, 7.71.) Look for the big bats of TORONTO to give Bassitt some support today and for TORONTO to find a way to get the job done once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-08-24 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the OVER Cubs/Padres. The Padres have seen the total go UNDER in five straight. They've been trading wins/losses over their last five games and will be eager to bounce back here after going just 1-2 at San Francisco over the weekend. The Cubs though are 6-3 overall and they just took two of three from the Dodgers at home. Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five and I'm expecting the Cubs to keep that offensive momentum rolling here, despite facing Yu Darvish (0-1, 2.30 ERA). The visitors counter with Javier Assad (1-0, 0.00), who looked great in his debut vs. the lowly Rockies, but who I think will now struggle in this difficult away venue. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOM on the OVER Padres/Giants. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a slugfest finally here on Sunday afternoon between these division rivals. San Diego goes with Matt Waldron (0-1, 9.00 ERA), while the home side coutners with Logan Webb (0-1, 6.52.) Both looked shaky in their openers, and I believe that'll be the difference here for these talented hitting line-ups, which I expect will take advantage throughout the night early and often as far as production at the plate. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-06-24 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOM on the OVER Jays/Yanks. I had a play on Toronto on the runline yesterday and I did not need the extra 1.5 runs in the Jays outright 3-0 victory. While that game went well UNDER the number, I'm expecting a much more wide-open "slug-fest" here on Saturday night, despite whoever gets the start for either side. This play is "action," meaning that whoever gets the start tonight, this play will still be valid. Kevin Gausman (0-0, 2.08 ERA) is scheduled to get the start fot the Jays, while Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 5.06 ERA) counters for the home side. Schmidt gave up three runs off seven hits to the Astros last weekend. He's in the rotation out of necessity with the injury to Gerrit Cole. Gausman has picked up right where he left off last season, but I'm still expecting the Yanks, who have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent, will plate some runs after getting shutout yesterday. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Brewers. After seven home games, Seattle is now 3-4. That includes back-to-back losses at home to Cleveland, which includes an 8-0 loss on Wednesday. Now the Mariners hit the road for two straight tough Eastern series, starting here in Milwaukee and ending North of the border. I smell a letdown here in the opener. Two really good starters going head-to-head, with Seattle going with Logan Gilbert (0-0, 1.29 ERA), while the home side counters with Freddy Peralta (1-0, 1.50.) This is the start of 13 straight game days in a row, so I look for the home side to get things kicked off on the "right foot." Seattle only has four home runs so far as a team and is struggling in many metrics on both sides of the ball. Not so for Milwaukee, who has gotten great production out of its rotation and line-up as well in the early going. Gilbert's great, but give me Peralta at home at this price. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-05-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* VALUE PLAY on the Blue Jays RUNLINE. The Yankees return home for their first game of the season in the Bronx, and I think they're going to fall flat here against their hungry division rival. That said, at this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs. Toronto is only hitting .176 over its first seven games, and this line-up is just too talented to be held down too much longer. "We have a really talented group," Jays' manager John Schneider said. "We have all the confidence in the world they're going to hit. It's a tough series. You don't want to make any knee-jerk reactions. These guys are professionals, and they're going to be ready on Friday." Toronto faces Marcus Stroman (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who allowed three unearned runs off four hits over six innings in New York's 5-3 win at Houston. The Jays counter with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 6.23), who conceded three runs over 4 1/3's innings in a loss to the Rays last weekend. Overall though he's 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. the Yanks though. This is going to be a great series and I'm expecting a competitve game out of TORONTO on Friday afternoon. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-04-24 | Guardians v. Twins -143 | 4-2 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. Cleveland is 4-2 so far after beating the Mariners in Seattle 8-0 last night, but I believe the visitors will finally stumble here against the 3-2 Twins, who play at home for the first time this year. Tanner Bibee (0-0, 6.75 ERA) gets the call for the Guardians, and he allowed a career-high five walks and three runs off six hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the lowly A's last weekend. He's 0-0 with a 4.20 ERA in three career starts vs. Minnesota. The Twins counter with Pablo Lopez (1-0, 1.29), who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a 4-1 win over a scrappy Royals side. Look for Lopez to ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd and for him to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-03-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -159 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* RL BK on the Jays. I had a play on the Jays on the runline yesterday, and didn't even need the 1.5 runs of insurance. I may not need it today either. Either way, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price again for Toronto on the runline option. I'm not overreacting to Chris Bassitt's (0-1, 7.20 ERA) start in Tampa for the Jays. He gave up a grand slam is what did the damage. He had a great spring though. He's susceptible to giving up the long-ball, but he catches the Astros at the "right time." Houston turns to Christian Javier, who went six shutout innings in a no-decision vs. the Yanks in his opener. He only forced eight whiffs though. I'll caution in backing Javier to quickly, as he posted a very pedestrian 4.56 ERA last year. For all the reasons listed above, the play is TORONTO on the runline option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-03-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOM on the D-Backs. A great situational play. Honestly, it wouldn't be too hard to write a convincing argument for either side to win. That said, Carlos Rodon is coming off a shaky season last year and while he had a decent opening start this year, I say the book is still out on him. Merril Kelly though is arguably the best pitcher in all of MLB and here he is essentially even money at home, facing a Yanks team that JUST lost its first game of the year. I've found in the past that teams that are on long win streaks that finally lose that first game, the next game after that tends to be a BIG letdown spot. The bottom line here is that I believe the general betting public is quick to back the Yanks, and not remembering that the D-Backs were in the World Series last year. The play is ARIZONA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Yanks/D-Backs. The Yanks are 5-0 after last night's 5-2 series opening win here. All five game have gone UNDER the number. Note though that New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. It's a new season, but it's still worth noting in my opinion. Arizona saw its first three games go OVER the number, but the last two have now gone UNDER. We have two decent starters going head-to-head, but I'm still anticipating a slug-fest between Nestor Cortes Jr. for the Yanks and Zac Gallen for the D-Backs. Cortes Jr. is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA and Gallen is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. But the overall situation, combined with the above listed trend makes the OVER the correct call this time around as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-02-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* RL BK on the Jays. The Astros finally won a game and are now 1-4. The Jays are now 2-3 after falling 10-0 and getting the seasons first "no hitter" put on them. But now Toronto will look to respond and at this price, I think for sure the value lies with the visitors on the RUNLINE option. Jose Berrios is already 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for Toronto, while Framber Valdez is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA and 2.36 WHIP for the Astros. I'm laying the price for TORONTO on the RUNLINE today. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOM on the UNDER Giants/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but I'm anticipating a "duel" here finally on Monday night between these divisional opponents. San Francisco goes with Keaton Winn, who looked sharp in his final Spring tune-up, going five innings and striking out five. The home side counters with James Paxton, who gave up just one run off two hits and who owns a 7:2 K:BB over four Spring innings. Look for these two capable starters to take center stage and for this total to fall UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-01-24 | Blue Jays v. Astros -137 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. Two hopeful starters going head to head here. Two really talented line-ups. Honestly it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to win here, but the difference for me is that Houston is winless so far after going 0-4 here to the Yankees to open the season. They uncharacteristically left 34 baserunners stranded, while also going 8 for 41 with runners in scoring position. Look for the now desperate home side to risk life and limb to secure the victory here in what I feel is a great price. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-31-24 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* RUNLINE BLOWOUT on the Phillies. I say Philadelphia stands up here and avoids the sweep. But at the very least, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras this time, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Chris Sale made 20 starts last year for Boston and went 6-5 with a 4.30 ERA. He's 1-2 with a 5.00 ERA spanning three career starts vs. the PHillies. Ranger Suarez counters for the home side and in 16 total appearances vs. Atlanta, the team he's faced more than any other in his career, he's gone 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA. With Atlanta going to the Chicago White Sox for an interleague series, and with the Phillies getting ready for another tough series here tomorrow vs. the Reds, situationally I think it favors the home side as well. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs, the play is PHILADELPHIA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-30-24 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Rockies/D-Backs. Both games in this opening series have flown well OVER the number, but I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber, who had a highly-respectable 3.68 ERA and 1.37 WHIP away from Coors Field last year. The home side counters with Tommy Henry, who pitched six scoreless innings on Monday in an exhibition vs. Cleveland. Look for these starters to "take center stage" so to speak in this one. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-30-24 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the OVER Brewers/Mets. After yesterday's lower-scoring contest, I'm expecting a bit more of a "slug-fest" here early on Saturday afternoon between the Brewers and the Mets. The visitors hand the ball to DL Hall, who looked decent in his last two spring tune-ups. Last year he was 1-0 with a 3.53 ERA on the road spanning nine games and 10.2 innings of work. Luis Severino looked good in Spring Training for the Mets, allowing one run over nine Grapefruit League innings. He had terrible numbers for the Yanks last year, and I'm not reading too much into his Spring performance. I think both of these starters enter with more questions than answers and I believe each will "get the hook" early. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-29-24 | Braves v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOM on the PHILLIES RUNLINE. I think that the Braves are overvalued here, and while I clearly feel an outright win is possible, the overall value here is just too good to turn down on the runline option in my opinion. The Braves hand the ball to Spencer Strider, who was 9-3 with a 4.39 ERA after the All Star break last year. The home side counters with ace Zach Wheeler, who signed a huge extension in the offseason after finishing with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and a massive 212:39 K:BB last year. He was super sharp in Spring training as well, allowing two total runs over three starts spanning nine frames of work to go along with a 9:3 K:BB. I'm laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is PHILADLEPHIA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-28-24 | Rockies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 1-16 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rockies. I think the Diamondbacks are going to fall back this season after making it all the way to World Series last year, and that drop off starts here in the first game of the year. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Kyle Freeland finished 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in spring traning, striking out 14 batters over 14 innings. He'll be a difference-maker in this one. Zac Gallen wasn't quite as sharp during his spring tune-up for the home side, posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over nine innings of work. Grab COLORADO on the RULINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-28-24 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Rays | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Jays. A big divisional matchup here right out of the gates and I'm expecting a competitive battle until the end. Because of that, I'm going to suggest to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Jose Berrios was 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA last year. He owned the Rays last year, going 2-0 over 12 innings of work, allowing two runs and two walks with 11 K's. The Rays hand the ball to Zach Eflin, who was 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA last year. He faced Toronto once and gave up one run over seven innings in the victory. Berrios had a 1.38 ERA over four Spring Training outings, while Eflin had an 8.49 ERA in three outings. Lay the price, grab the 1.5 runs with the BLUE JAYS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-28-24 | Giants v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Giants/Padres. NL West matchup here and I think these starters will get chased early, and in the end this total will eclipse this fairly low number once it's all said and done. The Padres have already gone 1-1 to open up their season vs. the Dodgers in Korea. Logan Webb was 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA last year for the Giants, while Yu Darvish is making his second start of the season here and is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Frankly, both teams underperformed offensively last year. But the Padres line-up is now fully healthy and San Francisco made some key picks up in the offseason (Champan and Soler.) Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-18-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SUPER BLOWOUT on the ASTROS on the RUNLINE. I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance here. The Rangers have been unbelievable to this point, but I predict the letdown here finally. Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA) will make his first start since September 12th, and I say that "rest" leads to "rust" here. It's the playoffs and it's an entirely different animal despite his years of experience in this spot and I think it'll take him some time to acclimate to this level. Cristian Javier (1-0, 0.00 ERA) counters for the visitors, and he's yet to even allow a run over three career playoff starts. Overall he's 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances. I say that the Rangers run of good fortune finally comes to an end here. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-10-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers | 1-7 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Orioles RUNLINE. The Rangers have been surging, but at some point they're going to have a letdown. I'm predicting tonight is that night. With their season on the line, I like the Orioles to dig deep here and to find a way to deliver the goods. However, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, ultimately I'm going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. It's the Rangers first home game so far in the playoffs, having gone 4-0 on the road. Baltimore though was also fantastic on the road this season, finishing 52-29 away from friendly confines. Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) has been great for the Rangers so far, but he's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today in my estimation. The visitors counter with Dean Kremer (13-5. 4.12) who will mke his first start since September 28th when he held the Red Sox scoreless on two hits over six innings. For all the reasons listed above, the play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -124 | 5-2 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ROUT on the Brewers. I had a play on Arizona on the runline last night, but I like Milwaukee to respond here and find a way to stay alive and force a Game 3. Note that Milwaukee is 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Freddy Peralta (12-10, 3.86 ERA) gets the call for the home side, while Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47) counters for the visitors. Peralta had his final regular season start skipped to give him extra rest just for this exact scenario. He was 7-3 with a 3.09 ERA over his final 15 starts. He's also 3-0 with a 0.55 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona. Gallen went 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.17 ERA in six September starts. He's 3-3 with a 1.75 ERA in six caree starts vs. Milwaukee, but this is just a case of Gallen being in "wrong place" at the "wrong time" tonight. I like MILWAUKEE to keep its season alive with a convincing bounce-back victory tonight. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays -149 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* WC GOY on the Rays. After yesterday's 4-0 loss, I like the Rays to respond at home here with the more "in form" starter going for them tonight. Note that TB is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent as well. The Rays got routed by Cleveland in the Wildcard last yeara and also struggled to put runs on the board. The fact of the matter is, the Rangers didn't look fantastic either, going just 1-for-13 with RISP. Nathan Eovaldi (12-5, 3.63 ERA) gets the call for the Rangers, and while he went 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA vs. the Rays this year, he was just 1-2 with an atrocious 9.30 ERA over his final six September starts. This is a case of: that was then, and this now, for Eovaldi, who is just in the wrong place at the wrong time in my estimation. The home side puts its season on the shoulders of Zach Eflin (16-8, 3.50), who grew up in Orlando: "That was probably my biggest goal this offseason was to sign with a team that wins consistently in the playoffs. It just helped that I grew up a really big Rays fan, and I live two hours away," Eflin said. It's do-or-die time for the Rays. I'm laying the price and finally expecting this underachieving home side to finally figure it out at the plate. Lay the price with confidence, the play is TAMPA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-03-23 | Marlins +1.5 v. Phillies | 1-4 | Loss | -147 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Marlins on the RUNLINE. Philadelphia earned the Top Wildcard in the NL, but I believe it'll have its hands full here in the opener of this three-game series. Philadelphia turns to Zach Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA), while the visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63.) Both starters looked strong down the stretch and each has had success against the other team. I say Miami throws its best shot here in Game 1 and in a contest that I see being decided late, or in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-03-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Diamondbacks on the RUNLINE. In a contest that I believe is very evenly matched, that will be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to suggest laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA) will be looking to match his counterpart Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39.) Pfaadt can take confidence in the fact that Arizona is 6-4 the last ten in this series. Also note that in his final start of the regular season, Pfaadt gave up zero runs over six innings in a 3-0 win over the White Sox. Burnes gave up no runs over four innings in a 3-0 win over the Cards in his last outing. The extra time off here is beneficial for this Arizona offense that struggled over the final two weeks, and comes at exactly the wrong time for the Brewers who had considerable momentum going. For all the reasons listed above, the play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
10-03-23 | Rangers +1.5 v. Rays | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Rangers RUNLINE. Texas has had time to reflect on falling short of the No. 1 seed, but it did recover over the final three weeks to reach this point, and I think it can make the most of this postseason opportunity. At least here in Game 1. Note that Texas is the only team to score more runs than the Rays and the Rangers are also tied for the AL homer lead. Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he enters on serious fire, 2-0 with a minuscule 0.67 ERA over his past four starts. Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53) counters for Tampa and he was just 3-3 with a 4.86 ERA in six September outings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is TEXAS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-29-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays -135 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-PLAY on the Jays. It's the final series of the regular season. So with that in mind, I feel this particular play sets up great from a situational stand point. The Rays have clinched the AL Wildcard, and they'll face the Jays in the best of three opening round if Toronto can win this series. All the Jays have to do is win this series and they're in. Tampa has nothing left to play for for the remainder of the regular season. It's dealing with several injury issues as well. Frankly, I don't see the Rays putting up much of a fight here this week North of the border, instead I expect them to already be planning for the playoffs. No such luxury for the Jays though of course, as this is now "do or die." Fortunately as well, this is definitely a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side as well. The Rays go with Aaron Civale (7-4, 3.43 ERA), while the home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31.) Ryu is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA in eight career starts vs. Tampa, while Civale is 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA in two career outings vs. Toronto. I believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Padres/Giants. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Padres are looking to play spoiler here and keep their division rival out of the playoffs, while the Giants are still in a fight for the postseason. San Fran has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after last night's 4-0 loss. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent, and in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Matt Waldron (1-3, 4.58 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent for the Padres. Same for Sean Manaea (7-6, 4.51) of the Giants. Neither has been great, and I anticipate they'll each "get the hook" here early, and that'll ultimatley help in driving this total OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-26-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 103 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Yanks/Jays. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a "duel" here in the opener of this series finally in my opinion. The Jays are inching towards a wildcard, while the Yanks have been eliminated. Still, this game will have a playoff like atmosphere about it, as New York will be all business here, trying to play spoiler. We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head in this one, and I expect them to play a big part in the outcome of this contest, with Michael King (4-7, 2.66 ERA) getting the nod for the visitors, and Kevin Gausman (12-9, 3.29) countering for the home side. The number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-21-23 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pirates/Cubs. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair here in the finale in my opinion. We have two decent starters going head-to-head here, with Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.27 ERA) going up against Kyle Hendricks (6-7, 3.77.) Chicago won the opener 14-1, then Pittsburgh answered with the 13-7 victory last night. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-20-23 | White Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER White Sox/Nationals. Both teams have now played to three straight UNDERS after the Nats 4-3 win yesterday. Now here in the finale, I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks in this series. It's significant to note that Chicago has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. And note that Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in the same position. Neither starter has been terrible, neither has been great either though. Michael Kopech (5-12, 5.47 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Josiah Gray (7-12, 4.07) counters for the home side. The overall situation, combined with these above supporting O/U trends does indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-19-23 | Mariners v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Mariners/A's. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs, including in the Mariners 5-0 win here last night, but everything finally points to a bit more of a "slug-fest" on Tuesday in my opinion. The A's have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent. The Mariners have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant to note here as well, as Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. We have two decent starters going head-to-head, with Luis Castillo (13-7, 3.08 ERA) going for the Mariners, and Paul Blackburn (4-5, 4.14) countering for the home side. This is just a case of each being in the wrong place, at the wrong time though. The overall situation, combined with these strong supporting O/U ATS stats all point to the OVER as the correct call finally in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-18-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Phillies/Braves. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring contest here in the opener of this series. Zach Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's been at his best on the road this year, going 7-4 with a 3.27 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by Kyle Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) who has clearly seen better days. The good news? Wright has only one way to go with his performance. Also, he's only pitched a total of 21.2 innings this season, and he still owns a decent 23:12 K:BB. I think Wright settles down here finally and matches Wheeler inning for inning. This game will have a playoff like atmosphere about it, and I believe it'll be the men on the mound that take center stage. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-14-23 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* AL TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Yanks/Red Sox. The first two games of this series have gone UNDER the number, but I'm finally expecting some "fireworks" here in the finale. New York has seen the total go UNDER in three straight now in fact, which is significant for us to take note of, as the Yanks have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. And note that Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Neither starter has impressed me, with Clark Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA) getting the call for the visitors, and Chris Murphy (1-1, 4.64) countering for the home side. When taking into account all of the above situational information, everything poing to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-1 | Win | 102 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers. I've been on the UNDER in the first two games of this series, and the old saying, "third times a charm," could not be more apt for today's selection on the UNDER once again. SD has now seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that the Padres have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. LA has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last eight, and the other one "pushed." That's plenty of OVERS played to by both sides of late, but with two competent starters going head-to-head here, I expect a "duel" here finally on Wednesday. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell (13-9, 2.52 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), while the home side counters with Ryan Pepiot (2-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.52 WHIP.) This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DUEL on the UNDER Padres/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. San Diego has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after last night's 11-8 series-opening victory. Note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Dodgers have now seen the total go OVER in seven straight. So we're standing in front of the train here and looking for the Padres' Michael Wacha (11-3, 2.99 ERA), and the Dodgers Lance Lynn (4-2, 4.95) to battle deep. As the title of this pick implies, this is a great "situational" play now finally on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-11-23 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Dodgers (NL TOW) Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect more of a "duel" here in the opener of this series. San Diego lost two of three to the Astros over the weekend, and all threee games went OVER the number. Note though that the Padres have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Dodgers have now won three of their last four. They've seen the total go over in six straight now though. The Padres hand the ball to Pedro Avila (1-2, 2.19 ERA), while the home side counters with Gavin Stone (1-0, 10.50.) Two hungry starters. This pick though is based upon the overall situation, combined with the above trend. These teams have been playing to a lot of OVERs of late, but all signs point to this one staying well UNDER once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-08-23 | A's v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT TOTAL on the UNDER A's/Rangers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Oakland is just 19-50 on the road. It's terribly inconsistent at the plate from one game to the next. It just lost two of three to Toronto, but salvaged the finale 5-2. Texas has seen the total go OVER in five straight after losing three in a row to Houston this week. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row, and in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row. We have two really good starters going head-to-head here, with Paul Blackburn (4-4, 3.81 ERA) getting the nod for the A's and Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 3.60) countering for the home side. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the UNDER Cards/Braves. This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring UNDER. The first two games have flown OVER the number in the Cards' back-to-back upsets, winning 10-6 and 11-6. Note that ATL has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back home losses. Adam Wainwright (3-10, 8.10 ERA) has obviously been terrible overall for the Cards this year, but he's a sharp 10-4 with a 3.42 ERA In 21 games vs. Atlanta. He'll be opposed by Max Fried (6-1, 2.52), who is on absolute fire and who this base is primarily based upon. Fried just went seven scoreless vs. the Dodgers and posted a season-high ten strikeouts. He's also 4-0 with a 0.34 ERA in five appearances vs. the Cards. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-06-23 | Orioles v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DUEL on the UNDER Orioles/Angels. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a DUEL here in my opinion. Baltimore continues to steamroll towards the playoffs, as it's now won four in a row, including the first two games of this series. It's seen the total go OVER in four straight, but note that LA has in fact seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five when trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. We have two veteran's squaring off on the mound tonight, with Kyle Gibson (13-8, 5.15 ERA) vs. Patrick Sandoval (7-11, 4.19.) Look for these two guys to battle into the deeper innings, and for that to ultimately help in keeping this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-05-23 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Tuesday finally. The White Sox have lost four straight after dropping the opener of this series here yesterday by a score of 12-1, and they've seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four. It's interesting to note though that the ChiSox have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after a ten runs or greater loss in their last outing. KC has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight. All of these recent "overs" have only helped though in contributing to this particular O/U number today in being a little bit TOO high now in my opinion. These two pitchers have seen better days, but they won't be lacking motivation here. Dylan Cease (6-7, 4.91 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Brady Singer (8-10, 5.15.) The overall situation and the above listed O/U trend both point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one as far as the total is concerned. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-04-23 | Astros -102 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on the Astros. There are a ton of implications going on in this game and in this series. Both of these teams are just 1.5 games ahead of Toronto for the final wildcard. They're both tied for second in the AL West, one game behind the Mariners for the lead. We have two evenly matched starting pitchers, and each club has enjoyed its fair share of frustrations over the last few weeks. So in this evenly matched contest, I look for other factors to help me find which way the pendulum will swing as far as value is concerned, and the fact that Houston is 5-1 in its last six after three or more straight losses, does indeed make them the correct call here in this opener in my opinion. I'm rolling with the ASTROS on Monday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-02-23 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Cubs/Reds. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Chicago's three-game win streak came to an end in last night's 3-2 loss here. Chicago has seen the total now go UNDER in five straight, but note that the Cubs have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Reds have now seen the total go UNDER in six straight. That fact though has only helped in driving this particular total here on Saturday a little lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. It sets up well from a situational stand point, so that puts Cubs' starter Javier Assad (3-2, 2.96 ERA) and the Reds' Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35) in the wrong place at the wrong time here on Saturday. The situation combined with the trends point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
09-01-23 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL EAST TOTAL OF YEAR on the OVER Marlins/Nationals. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring affairs, but I'm expecting a "shootout" here now on Friday night. Miami has been alternating wins and losses over its last five games. It managed the 6-1 win here in last night's series opener. The Nationals have managed just one run over their last two losses. We have two decent starters going head-to-head as well, but this is just a case of the Marlins' Eury Perez (5-4, 2.68 ERA) and the Nationals' Jake Irvin (3-5, 4.30) being in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Fish are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot, and they can't afford to look past these opportunities. For the Nationals, they have incentive here to snap the recent slide at the plate, while at the same time playing spoiler. As good as Perez's numbers look as well, note that he's 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in his past six starts. I finally expect some offense to take center stage, so look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dodgers. This is an interesting series between the league's best teams. For me though, in a contest that I could easily go either way, and which I envision being decided late or even in extras, the runline option at this price for the red hot Dodgers here at home is just too good to turn down. And I'd feel that way with essentially anyone that LA put on the mound. I'm not delusional in thinking that Lance Lynn's eye-popping numbers since he came over to the Dodgers are unsustainable over the long-term, but the bottom line here is that I feel the value is still way too good to turn down by getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Great value play here on LA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-30-23 | Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Nats/Jays. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Toronto has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after yesterday's 5-4 loss here to the Nats. Note though that the Blue Jays have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge an upset home loss as a -150 or greater favorites. Both of these starters have been much better over the last month as well and that progression continues here in my estimation, with Patrick Corbin (9-11, 4.70 ERA) going for the visitors, and Chriss Bassitt (12-7, 4.00) countering for the home side. Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-30-23 | Guardians v. Twins -154 | 5-2 | Loss | -154 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Twins. I like the Twins to bounce back here at home after yesterday's 4-2 loss. Minnesota took the opener by a score of 10-6. Note though that the Twins are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Tyler Bibee (10-3, 3.01 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Guardians all year, but I still give the nod to Sonny Gray (7-6, 3.06) here at home in this revenge situation. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-29-23 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the D-Backs runline. These teams were both really hot coming into this series, and LA managed the 7-4 victory as a -145 favorite. Arizona won't be rolling over here obviously, I think the revenge factor comes into play here. And clearly these starters are very evenly matched. This starting pitching matchup is an "Any Given Sunday" type of scenario, in that it would be easy to write a convincing argument for either of these guys to win this game. And so in a case like that, I invariably feel that the value then swings to the undervalued underdog. And in this case, getting Merrill Kelly and the D-Backs with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on the runline option at this price is just too attractive to turn down in the end. The play is ARIZONA on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-28-23 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Red Sox. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this Monday total a bit higher than it normally would/should be. Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last night, while Boston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 straight. Clearly we know these teams can hit, but I'm finally expecting a bit of a "duel" here in the opener. The visitors hand the ball to Christian Javier (9-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Sale (5-3, 4.68.) Javier is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA in four career meetings vs. the Red Sox, while Sale is 5-3 with a 2.56 ERA in ten career starts vs. Houston. This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-27-23 | Cardinals v. Phillies -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING DOMINATION on the Phillies runline. I'm not smelling any upsets here. The Cards look completely dejected, and the Phillies are continuing to get stronger with each passing game. It's in fact very reminiscent of last year at this time for the Phillies, where they caught fire and rode the wave to the World Series. They've outscored the Cards 19-3 over the first two games, and all signs point to another blowout here in my opinion. The Cards hand the ball to the volatile Drew Rom (0-1, 14.73 ERA), who is set to make his second career start after allowing eight runs over three innings in an 11-1 loss to the lowly Pirates on Monday. The home side counters with veteran Aaron Nola (11-8, 4.49), who comes in off a strong performance, allowing two runs over seven innings in a 10-4 victory over the Giants last Monday. Nola has once again been much better at home than on the road this year, posting a 3.49 ERA in 11 home starts. Look for Philadelphia to continue the HIT PARADE and lay the price with confidence. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-26-23 | Astros -126 v. Tigers | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Astros. After three straight losses, including the opener in this one, I expect the Astros to dig deep here and deliver in Detroit. The Tigers are playing well right now, but they're still just 28-35 on the road. Note as well that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. It's also 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Hunter Brown (9-9, 4.50 ERA) gets the call for the Astros, while Eduardo Rodriguez (9-6, 3.03) counters for the home side. The overall situation though, combined with the above listed trends do indeed make the Astros worth the price of admission in this one. The play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-25-23 | Rangers +105 v. Twins | Top | 2-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Rangers. I think the Rangers' run of bad luck comes to an end here. Luck does play a role in long losing streaks, and in long winning streaks. Both teams need victories, but it's all hands on deck for Texas today as it looks to get back into the winner's circle after sevem straight losses. That includes the opener of this series last night by a score of 7-5. Danning Dunning (9-5, 3.19 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, and he's 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in four career starts vs. the Twins. Minnesota now has a six-game lead over the Guardians after last night's come-from-behind win, and I think that complacency finally kicks in a bit here. Sonny Gray (6-6, 3.15) get s the call for the home side, and he's 9-5 with a 3.17 ERA in 17 career games vs. Texas. All in all these starters are evenly matched, but look for TEXAS to finally punch through here and find a way to stop the extened, but now unrealistic slide. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-24-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 17-1 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight games after losing the first two games of this series. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. They've also seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Astros have seen the total go UNDER in four straight now. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that fact has also helped in driving this total a point higher than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion. Two super in form starters collide, with Brayan Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA) going for the Red Sox, and JP France (9-4, 2.75) countering for the home side. Look for this afternoon's finale to finally produce a lower-scoring UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-23-23 | Royals v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Royals/A's. Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs of late, but all signs point to this one on Wednesday being more of a "duel." KC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four, including in the first two losses of this series. Note though that KC has seen the total UNDER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Oakland has now seen the total go OVER in five straight after the B2B wins, which is also significant to note, as the A's have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. Cole Ragans (2-1, 2.51 ERA) has looked sharp for the Royals, Adrian Martinez (0-1, 5.85) less so for the A's. But here's a big opportunity for Martinez to get back to his previous form, facing this lowly opponent. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-22-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. I had a play on the UNDER in the opener of this series yesterday, and that was a loser in the Astros' 9-4 victory. Boston has now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in three straight (important to note here though that the Astros have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.) Here are two starters looking to improve their records, and hopefully lead their team to a win. The visitors go with Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.05 ERA), while the home side counters with Justin Verlander (2-1, 4.50.) Verlander is 8-6 with a 3.36 ERA overall this season. He's 5-6 with a 2.87 ERA in 19 career regular-season starts vs. Boston. Houck has been out for two months rehabbing, but that progression has reportedly gone well: "It's good to be back," Houck said. "Long road, but I know things could have been much worse so excited to get back out there (on Tuesday)." I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy call as far as the total is concerned this evening. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-21-23 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Red Sox/Astros. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I look for the opener of this series to be dominated by the men on the mound. Boston has seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after sweeping at the Yankees over the weekend. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after losing all three at home to Seattle over the weekend. Note though that the Astros have seen the total UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. James Paxton (7-3, 3.34 ERA) gets the call for Boston, while Christian Javier (8-2, 4.49) counters for the home side. Look for these two veterans to battle deep, and for this total to ultimatley stay UNDER the posted number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-20-23 | Blue Jays v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL TOM on the OVER Jays/Reds. Both teams have been playing to some lower-scoring UNDERS of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening in what I feel sets up to be a classic "slug-fest." The Jays snapped a two-game slide with the 4-3 win yesterday, and they've now seen the total go UNDER in two straight. But more importantly, the Reds have now seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after the setback, and note that Cincinnati has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. The starters have been decent: Hyun-Jin Ryu is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA for the Jays, while Hunter Greene is 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA for the Reds. This is just a case of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today. Because the overall situation, combined with the above trend points to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-19-23 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL GOY on the Mariners runline. The Mariners have won four straight, including the opener of this one by a score of 2-0. I think the visiting side continues to build momentum here and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is a possibility, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, and he's 3-2 with a 3.72 ERA over eight career starts vs. the Astros. He'll be opposed by Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31), who has struggled of late, posting an elevated 5.52 ERA with four dingers allowed over his last two starts. He's had plenty of success vs. the Mariners in the past, going 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA, but this is a case of that being "then," and this being "now." Seattle is 6-2 vs. the Astros this year, including 4-1 at Minute Maid Park. Usually, I like to stand in front of winning streaks or losing streaks, but in this case, the momentum that the Mariners have created right now is very real. I'm laying the price here for SEATTLE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-18-23 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Astros. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Mariners have seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after taking three of four at KC this week. Despite their 6-4 high-scoring win yesterday, note that the Mariners have still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Astros took two of three at the Marlins, and the final two games did go OVER the number. Two really good teams here, each with their eyes set on a playoff spot. And two really decent starters going head-to-head, with Seattle turning to Bryce Miller (7-4, 4.04 ERA), and the home side countering with JP France (9-3, 2.74.) I say this total is a little high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-17-23 | Red Sox v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKEIKILLER on the OVER Red Sox/Nationals. Boston has now seen the total go UNDER in seven straight after yesterday's 6-2 loss. The Red Sox though have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. After the first two games of this interleague matchup having gone UNDER the posted number, I anticipate a slug-fest finally here this afternoon. Neither starter has been terrible, but neither has been great either. Boston turns to Chris Sale (5-2, 4.52 ERA), while the home side counters with Patrick Corbin (7-11, 4.85.) Sale's win/loss record and ERA means that he's getting lots of run support this year. This number is low in my estimation, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-16-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the RUNLINE. While I do think an outright victory is possible, I think the Orioles with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the way to go. Baltimore took the opener by a score of 4-1, and then the Padres responded with a 10-3 victory yesterday. We have two evenly matched starters going H2H here, as Baltimore turns to Dean Kremer (11-4, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Blake Snell (9-8, 2.63.) In a contest that I think will be decided late (or even in extra innings), I'm going to lay the price for BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-15-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH on the MARLINS RUNLINE. I had a play on the Marlins on the runline in their 5-1 outright win here over the Astros, and while I do feel that they have a legitimate shot at winning tonight's contest as well, in the end my official call will be to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance for what I feel to be a very good price. Clearly, Christian Javier (8-2, 4.36 ERA) has the advantage here on paper over counterpart Johnny Cueto (0-3, 5.33), but I believe that the momentum that the Fish are currently riding is very real. Note as well that Cueto is 5-6 with a highly-repsectable 3.14 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Astros. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-14-23 | Astros v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the MARLINS RUNLINE. Both teams are in the hunt for a wildcard spot. The Marlins just took two of three from the Yankees over the weekend and I think they offer great value to keep that momentum rolling here. The Astros have won 12 of 19 games, but I think this starting pitching matchup is very evenly matched, as Houston turns to Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.30 ERA), who in his only other start vs. the Marlins last year gave up four runs over six innings in a loss. He's coming off a fortunate no-decision as well vs. the Orioles last Tuesday, allowing six runs off eight hits over seven innings. Braxton Garrett (6-3, 4.08) gets the call for Miami here and the Marlins are 17-5 in his stats this season, most recently winning their third straight behind him in a 3-2 win over the Reds last week, he gave up two runs over six frames. The outright is possible, but the price is right here to take MIAMI on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-13-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rockies/Dodgers. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. LA has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after winning a third straight in this four-game series by a score of 4-1 yesterday. The Dodgers are remaining "in the moment" and not looking past these opportunities, having now won seven straight. Note though that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Neither starter has been terrible. Neither has been fantastic. "Pedestrian" is likely the best way to describe both Kyle Freeland (4-12, 4.84 ERA) of the Rockies and Julio Urias (9-6, 4.39) of the Dodgers. I think the overall situation, combined with the numbers, all point to Sunday's contest finally being a higher-scoring "slug-fest." The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-12-23 | Rangers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rangers/Giants. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Texas has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight after last night's series opening 2-1 win here. Note though that the Rangers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Giants come in desperate to reverse their fortunes, as they've dropped five of their last six, including three straight. Note though that San Fran has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Two decent starters in Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb, but this is just a case of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME today. The overall situation, combined with the above O/U trends makes the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-11-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Mariners | 2-9 | Loss | -168 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL BLOOD-BATH on the Orioles. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two hot teams here. The Orioles lost the first two vs. the Astros, then bounced back and won the finale yesterday. I was on the correct side of each of those games. Each team is in a fight for a spot in the playoffs, and each comes in equally as motivated here. The starting pitching matchup in this one is even, as Baltimore goes with Kyle Gibson (11-6, 4.50 ERA), while the home side counters with Luis Castillo (7-7, 3.21.) Yes, the Mariners are 33-26 at home, but the Orioles are 35-21 on the road. They've been consistently under-rated this year, and that's the case here in this opening game. I'm laying the price and taking BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-10-23 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on the ORIOLES RUNLINE. After taking the first two games of this series, and with a home series starting tomorrow vs. the Angels, I believe Houston will get caught looking ahead. Baltimore is hungry for revenge and to stop the bleeding. So far in this series Houston has had the upper-hand in the starting pitching department, but that's now not the case here on Thursday afternoon, with the Astros going with Hunter Brown (8-7, 4.07 ERA) and the Orioles countering with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.61.) Give me Kremer at home here in this revenge bounce-back spot. That said, ultiately I'm laying the price for the exra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE. I like standing in front of trains and predicting when a team will break a losing streak, or have an extended winning streak finally come to an end. And that's going to be the case here today in two different scenarios in my opinion. The D-Backs have lost seven straight, and their starting pitcher today Merrill Kelly is 0-10 lifetime vs. the Dodgers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. All good things come to an end, and all losing streaks also end eventually as well. I like Arizona to snap its seven-game slide today, and Kelly (9-5, 3.21 ERA) certainly won't be lacking for motivation either. The Dodgers have won three straight, but with a four-game series at home vs. the Rockies starting tomorrow, there's reason to believe that this visiting side could get caught "looking ahead." No such luxury for the super desperate D-Backs though, who will be risking life and limb today to try and snap the slide vs. Bryce Miller (6-2, 4.26), who I believe will be overmatched by his hungry counterpart this evening. Lay this reasonable mid-sized price and grab the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-08-23 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 10.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Marlins/Reds. I base my picks on many different things, but here's a great situational play. Both teams are desperate for victories. The Marlins have now lost five straight after yesterday's 5-2 loss here. Note though that the Fish have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more straight losses in a row. And with the win the Reds just snapped a six-game slide. They've also now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is signficant to note as Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. As stated off the top, a great "situational" play here on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-07-23 | Twins -159 v. Tigers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins. I'm going to lay the price and expect the surging Twins to NOT look past this opportunity, and instead come in razor focussed, ready to take advantage. Minnesota is arguably playing its best baseball of the season right now, coming in off four sraight victories, including a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The Twins now have a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central. Pablo Lopez (6-6, 4.01 ERA) has been super sharp over his last two starts and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Joey Wentz (2-9, 6.37), who is back in the rotation out of necessity. Wentz has struggled as a starter this season, with his opposition posting a .888 on base-plus-slugging percentage vs. him in those outings. Wentz has already lost two starts to the Twins this year, and the old saying, "the third times a charm" could not be more apt, as I do indeed expect MINNESOTA to assert itself here in the opener and beat Wentz for a third time this season in the process. Lay the price, the play is MINNESOTA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Dodgers/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but that's only helped in driving this Sunday total a little bit higher than it normally would or should be. Both Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.47 ERA) of the Dodgers, and Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA) of the Padres have a big chance to turn their seasons around with their respective new teams. All eyes will be on these new acquisitions and I expect a bit of a "duel" here. Note as well that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The majority of the betting public will be quick to hammer the over, but we're going to go the other way in classic contrarian style and take the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-05-23 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Mariners/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Seattle has now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight after taking the first two games of this series, including last night's 9-7 victory. Note though that the Mariners have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row. LA has now lost four straight. Note though that it's seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Two really decent starters who I'm expecting to go deep here. Seattle turns to George Kirby (9-8, 3.42 ERA), while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-2, 4.98.) The overall situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned finally. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-04-23 | Mets v. Orioles -160 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. The Mets just got swept in Kansas City and I believe they're ripe for the picking here in the opener of this one. Baltimore took three of four from the Jays over the weekend. Big time starting pitching mismatch is the main reason here though, as New York goes with David Peterson (3-7, 5.92 ERA), while the home side counters with Deam Kremer (10-4, 4.66.) Peterson hasn't lasted more than two innings in any of his last six appearances, while Baltimore is 16-6 in games Kremer has started, including 5-0 in July. Lay the price with confidence, the play is BALTIMORE! Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-04-23 | Braves v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Cubs on the runline. Two hot teams collide in Chicago today, and in what will be a highly anticipated series, I'm going to grab the home side on the runline option. For argument's sake, I'm going to classify these starters as a "wash," as Max Fried (2-1, 2.08 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while the home side turns to Kyle Hendricks (4-5, 3.49.) Fried returns finally to the Braves rotation, and while had a succesful rehab, there's no question that he's being thrown to the wolves here facing this red hot Cubs line-up. The outright is possible, the value here for sure is Chicago on the runline option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on the Blue Jays. The Jays have lost three straight. They had won four of five previous to that. Now in third in the AL East, Toronto can't afford to lose anymore games to the division leader. Baltimore has taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's in blowout fashion vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Note though that the Jays are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. They're also 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. It's "gut check" time in Toronto. Essentially, "now or never" type of situation. Fortunately for Jays' fans (and us!), this is a completely lop-sided starting pitching matchup which I believe firmly swings the value in favor of the home side today. The Orioles hand the ball to Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 6.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, while the home side counters with Yusei Kikuchi (8-3, 3.79, 1.28.) Big mismtatch here working in favor of Toronto and combined with the other external situational factors listed above, this becomes the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. Lay the price, the play is TORONTO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
08-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOW on the OVER D-Backs/Giants. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, including in Arizona's crucial 4-3 win in yesterday's series opener, but I'm finally expecting some offensive fireworks tonight. Note that San Fran has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Arizona has now seen the total go UNDER in four straight as well. These starters have been great, as Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.36 ERA) of the D-Backs squares off against Alex Cobb (6-3, 2.97) of the Giants. It's just a case however of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME tonight. I say the overall situation points to this one eclipsing this smaller number as it gets into the latter frames. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-31-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orioles on the runline. They say that divisional matchups are always the most important, and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. That's true in most cases, but here's an opportunity for the Orioles to continue to distance themselves from the Jays in the wildcard race. Motivationally speaking, it's equal. These starters are evenly matched as well. Baltimore turns to Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.68 ERA), while the home side counters with Chris Bassitt (10-5, 3.91.) In this evenly matched contest, the value swings to the ORIOLES on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-30-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Rangers/Padres. San Diego has won the first two games of this series, 7-1 and 4-0. Note though that Texas has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent, and in three of its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses vs. an opponent. We have two decent starters going head-to-head here in the Rangers' Cody Bradford (2-1, 4.62 ERA), and the Padres' Blake Snell (7-8, 2.61.) This is just a case of each being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting shutdown over the first two games, I'm definitely finally expecting a response here from the vistors. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-30-23 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 11.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Brewers/Braves. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday. This game means a lot more to the Brewers obviously after opening 0-2. They hand the ball to Colin Rea, who has been a consistent bright spot for Milwaukee this season witha 5-4, 4.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP record for the Brewers. He'll be opposed by AJ Smith-Shawver, who is 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA after 16.2 innings pitched so far. Not a big sample size, but I still think he'll match Rea's effort here at home. Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent, and now finally here in the finale of this series, I feel this number is a couple points too high. The value has now swung to the UNDER as far as the total is concerned in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-29-23 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Rangers/Padres. Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. San Diego has now seen the total go UNDER in three straight after last night's 7-1 win. That's signficant to note though, as the Padres have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Neither starter has been terrible this year, but neither has been great either. Pedestrian is the perfect term to describe each players performance to this point. Martin Perez is 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers (a testament to the amount of run support he's received this year.) while Yu Darvish is just 7-7 with a 4.80 ERA for the Padres. I'm expecting each to "get the hook" early, and as such, all signs do point to this total going OVER the number sooner, rather than later in this one. Good luck, NP |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |