Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-29-23 | Phillies -167 v. Pirates | 6-7 | Loss | -167 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Phillies. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five. They're second in the NL East behind the Braves, who they won't catch. They won't catch the Dodgers either, but after that, they're in a neck and neck race with four or five other teams for the other Wildcard spots. A couple months ago, things looked a lot bleaker for the Phillies, but they've been getting healthier as the season has progressed, and that's helped in turning things around after a slow start. Pittsburgh got out to an unreal start this season, but it fell apart a month before the All Star break and the slide into mediocrity continued in last night's 2-1 series opening loss. Now with veteran Aaron Nola (9-6, 4.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) on the hill, I like the Phillies to keep the good times rolling in this favorable matchup, as he'll be opposed by Quinn Priester (1-1, 9.28.) This is a big time starting pitching matchup and everything points to a lop-sided outcome in the end. Because of that, I'm laying the price with confidence on PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-28-23 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOM on the OVER Brewers/Braves. Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but I believe those trends end this evening. Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after taking two of three from the Reds earlier in the week. Note though that the Brewers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Atlanta dropped both games vs. the Red Sox earlier in the week and it's now seen the total go UNDER in four straight. That includes in two of three vs. the Brewers prior to the series at Boston, in which the Braves went 2-1 in. These are actually two really decent starters, as Adrian Houser is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Brewers, while Yonis Chirinos is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA for the Braves. This though is just a case of each of these guys being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME. The overall situation, combined with these stats/numbers/trends all point to this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-27-23 | Cubs -104 v. Cardinals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Cubs. After winning five straight, and with a chance to move back to .500, I like the Cubs to do just that this evening in St. Louis. These teams played last weekend and the Cubs went 3-1 in the four game series. The Cards can only play spoiler these days, and I just don't see them getting too excited here to try and stop the Cubs from reaching .500 today. The starting pitching matchup favors Chicago, as the Cubs hand the ball to Justin Steele, while the home side counters with Miles Mikolas. Steele is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Mikolas is is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Mikolas gave up 11 hits and five runs against the Cubs last week and I think he's in for another short night tonight as well. The Cubs offense is now rated in the Top 10 and I expect that momentum to get carried over. The play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-26-23 | Orioles v. Phillies -108 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Phillies. The Phillies were on the verge of defeat last night, but rallied with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Orioles 3-2. Now instead of trying to avoid the series sweep, they're trying to win the series off arguably the hottest team in baseball. If any team was "due" for some regression, surely it's the Orioles. I say that Kyle Bradish (6-5, 3.05 ERA) takes a step back here as well finally in this difficult road venue. He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez (2-5, 4.07), who I believe gets the slight advantage here because of throwing in front of the home town crowd. Philadelphia is hungry for victories, and I believe it rides the wave of emotion from last night's victory to another solid decision here in the series finale. The play is the PHILLIES. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-25-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL TOW on the UNDER Cards/D-Backs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in the Cardinals' 10-6 upset win at Arizona last night. St. Louis has seen the total go OVER in three straight now, but note that the Cards have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. And Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. While only 1-7 this year for St. Louis, Steven Matz still owns a respectable 4.67 ERA and I think the veteran will be able to match his counterpart Merril Kellly, who is 9-4 with a 3.22 ERA for the Diamondbacks. I'm expecting a battle between these two veterans and when the smoke does clear at the end of this one, all signs point to it being a lower-scoring defensive UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-24-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers UNDER 9.5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Jays/Dodgers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating more of a "duel" here finally between these interleague rivals on the West Coast here on Monday night. The Jays went 1-1 in Seattle over the weekend, while LA took two of three at the Rangers, falling 8-4 last night. All three games went OVER the number, and the Dodgers have now seen the total eclipse the posted number in six straight. Despite that though, note that LA has still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The Jays go with Jose Berrios, who is 8-7 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's likely been the most consistent starter for Toronto this year. The home side counters with Michael Grove, who is just 2-2 with a 6.40 ERA. He's coming off a gem though, allowing one run over five innings while posting four K's in a 10-3 win over Baltimore. I expect these starters to battle into the latter frames, and when taking into account the rest of the above listed factors, the UNDER is for sure the correct call in my opinion as far as the total is concerned in this contest. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-23-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Dodgers/Rangers. The first two games of this series have flown well OVER the number in LA's two blowout victories. When faced against the best in the league, the Rangers are looking pretty pedestrian. That's the case here again today with this line, as Martin Perez is the slight dog at home here. Regardless, note that the Rangers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Emmet Sheehan is 3-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP for LA, while Perez is 7-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.50 WHIP for the Rangers. The public is quick to back another high-scoring affair in this interleague finale, but all signs finally point to a bit of a "duel" here on Sunday in my opinion. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-23-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Orioles. This has been a back and forth series so far, with each divisional foe taking one game apiece. Baltimore came into this series red hot, while the Rays have been pretty pedestrian over the last month or so. Regardless, in what I anticipate will be another tightly contested affair, one which will almost assuredly be decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a great starting pitching matchup working in favor of Baltimore today, as the visitors go with Tyler Wells (7-5, 3.54 ERA). The home side counters with the erratic Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.29.) The play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-22-23 | Blue Jays v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Jays/Mariners. The Mariners managed a come-from-behind 3-2 win in yesterday's series opener, but I'm expecting some more offensive fireworks here on Saturday afternoon. It's perfect weather for baseball right now in the PNW, so this normally pitcher-friendly park will be less so this afternoon. The Jays have now seen the total go UNDER in three straight, which is significant to note as Toronto has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. These are two really decent starter, with the Jays handing the ball to Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.03 ERA), and the Mariners countering with Logan Gilbert (8-5, 3.65.) The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trend though swings the pendulum in favor of a slightly higher-scoring game here, as I do expect this one to sneak over this tiny number after these starters make their departure. This number is a little low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers +113 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOW on the Rangers. The Dodgers pulled away for the 11-5 win in yesterday's series opener, but with what I feel is the superior starter on the hill for htem here, I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Note that Texas is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent. Bobby Miller is 5-1 with a 4.25 ERA for the Dodgers. He's been great, but I say he's in over his head here facing Dane Dunning of the Rangers, who is 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA this season (he's 5-0 at home.) A great situational play (and a great price,) as all signs point to TEXAS bouncing-back. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-21-23 | Braves v. Brewers +1.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -146 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER SPECIAL on the Brewers. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay this price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Braves had lost four in a row before yesterday's 7-5 win. Now they face a red hot Milwaukee side that's gone 8-2 in its last ten, including just taking two of three from Philadelphia. I give the slight nod to Freddy Peralta (6-7, 4.41 ERA) here as well throwing at home over his counterpart Mike Soroka (1-1, 5.40.) Overall this is a really great line value for the home side on the runline option. The play is MILWAUKEE on the RUNLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-21-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Cards/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon. The Cards have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last eight, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER in nine straight. But that's only helped in driving this total here on Friday a few points higher than it normally would be. The visitors go with Jack Flaherty, who is battle-tested at 7-5 with a 4.29 ERA, while the home side counters with Justin Steele, who is 9-3 with a 2.96 ERA. I'm anticipating a classic "duel" here early on Friday afternoon between these starters, and ultimatley that'll also help in driving this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-20-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Cardinals/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Cards have now won five straight after taking all three vs. the Marlins in their first series back from the break. Two of three went OVER the number and now St. Louis has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six. The Cubs went 2-1 in their first second-half series vs. the Nationals, and all three games went OVER the number. Chicago has now seen the total go OVER the number in eight straight. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. So here we have two experienced starters going head-to-head as well. Steven Matz is 0-7 for St. Louis, despite a respectable 4.86 ERA. His counterpart Marcus Stroman though is 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. I'm anticipating a classic "duel" here, and when you take into account the rest of the situational and trend-based factors listed above, they all smash together here to make the UNDER the correct call in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ULTIMATE BEST BEST on the Orioles runline. Baltimore went into the break on a huge run, but then it dropped the first two games in the second half at home to the Dodgers. But then the Orioles bounced back with an 8-5 win in yesterday's series finale and I believe that they'll keep that momentum rolling here. The Rays continue to slide and the Orioles can smell the blood in the water after Tampa Bay lost all three games in Texas in their first series after the Mid-Summer Classic. I'll call these starters a "wash," as Kyle Gibson is 9-6 with a 4.77 ERA for the Orioles, while Tyler Glasnow is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA for the Rays. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm backing BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-19-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SPECIAL on the UNDER Nationals/Cubs. I had a play on the UNDER in the Cubs' 17-3 win last night, and while that play obviously was a loser, I do now FINALLY expect a lower-scoring "duel" here between these clubs on Wednesday. Chicago has now seen the total go OVER in seven straight, while Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight (and note that the Nats have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.) Trevor Williams is scheduled for the Nats, and he's 5-5 with a 4.43 ERA and 73 to 31 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll be opposed by Kyle Hendricks, who is 3-4 with a 3.57 ERA. We like both veterans and expect them to battle into the latter frames. For a number of different reasons, we like this one to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-19-23 | Dodgers v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Angels/Orioles. This is a super interesting series, LA came out of the break and won the first game by a score of 6-4, and then yesterday's contest by a score of 10-3. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. For this WEdnesday game I'm going to focus on the starting pitching, and in our opinion, these starting pitchers will be the main focus and story line once it's all said and done. These teams have been great at the plate of course this season, but they also sport some of the best pitching numbers as well, and we have two really decent starters going head to head here. The Dodgers turn to Julio Urias, who is 7-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He most recently scattered one hit over six scoreless innings to go along with seven strikeouts in a 4-0 victory over the Mets in his last outing. And then Orioles counter with Dean Kremer, who is 10-4 with a 4.59 ERA and 100 to 17 strikeout to walk ratio. He's also coming off a really strong outing, going six innings and allowing two hits and one run to go along with eight strikeouts. When it comes to starting pitching, there's no greater indicator to judge than "RECENT FORM," and each of these guys looks really LOCKED IN to us right now. Because of that, we're taking the UNDER in this intriguing interleague matchup on Wednesay afternoon. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-18-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Nats/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally this evening. The Nationals have now seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after last night's 7-5 series opening win here, while Chicago has now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight (but note that the Cubs have seen the total go UNDER the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Trevor Williams gets the nod for the visiting side and he's 5-5 with a 4.42 ERA, while Jameson Taillon is only 3-6 with a 6.15 ERA for the Cubs. Two teams hoping for something positive in the second half, and two starting pitchers looking to rebound off uncharacteristic poor first halves. When you add up all of these factors, I say we finally have ourselves a lower-scoring outcome between these teams. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-17-23 | Yankees v. Angels UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* total on the UNDER Yanks/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several higer-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this evening. New York lost two of three at the Rockies over the weekend. Yeterday's 8-7 loss flew well OVER th enumber of 11. Note though that the Yanks have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four off an upset road loss as a -200 or greater favorite. The Angels have now seen the total go OVER the number in eight straight after losing two of three to Houston over the weekend. No one could be happier to see the second half of MLB start that Yankees' starter Luis Severino, who is 1-4 with a 7.38 ERA. Look for much better results from the veteran over the second half (is what I am definitely expecting anyways.) The home side counters with Griffin Canning, who put together a solid first half by going 6-4 with a 4.60 ERA. Everything points to a lower-scoring "duel" here on the West Coast on Monday night, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* total on the UNDER Nationals/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to even this evening. The Nationals have seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after dropping two of three to the Cards over the weekend. Note though that the Nats have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Cubs have now seen the total go OVER the number in seven straight after losing two of three to Boston this weekend, including an 11-5 setback yesterday (note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven off a home loss as a favorite.) McKenzie Gore is 4-7 with a 4.42 ERA for the Nats, while Drew Smyly is 7-5 with a 4.30 ERA for the Cubs. I'm expecting a duel here between these two hungry starters, and all of these different factors now come together to indeed make the UNDER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-17-23 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* total on the UNDER Marlins/Cards. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Miami lost all three at Baltimore over the weekend and it's seen the total fly OVER in five of its last six overall. St. Louis has now won four of its last five. It saw all three of its totals vs. Washington fly OVER the number over the weekend, but note that the Cards have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Two very decent starters going head-to-head and I anticipate a classic "duel" here. Jesus Luzards is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA for the Marlins, while Mike Mikolas is 5-5 with a 4.12 ERA for the Cards. Everything points to this one staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done. GOod luck, NP | |||||||
07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER On the UNDER Astros/Angels. The first two games of this series have flown OVER the number, but I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here on Sunday night between two highly-motivated starting pitchers. LA has now seen the total go OVER in seven straight, while the Astros have seen it go over in the first two of this series. Christian Javier has once again been a rock for the Astros this year, as he enters 7-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He'll be opposed by veteran Tim Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.25 ERA. Look for the extra time off between starts to benefit these guys and then look for this total to stay UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-15-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Astros/Angels. Houston won yesterday's series opener by a score of 7-5, but I'm anticipating more of a defensive "duel" here on Saturday. The Angels have now seen the total go OVER the number in six straight. They've also lost six straight. Despite yesterday's high-scoring loss though, note that LA has still seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of it slast ten after five or more straight losses in a row. These two starters ere super solid over the first half, and there's no reason no to believe that consistency won't carry over here. The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez, who is 7-6 with a 2.51 ERA, while the home side counters with Reid Detmers, who is 2-6 with a 4.31 ERA. Everything points to a "duel," and combined with all of these other factors, the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-14-23 | Astros v. Angels -158 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -158 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels. Shohei Ohtani did not pitch in the All-Star game, but batted second in the AL order. He likely would have been the starting pitcher if he did decide to take the mound. He was last year. Ohtani enters the second half with a chip on his shoulder and I think he'll just be too much for counterpart JP France and the Astros to handle. France is 4-3 with a 3.26 ERA, and overall he's been good this year, but this is just a case of the Houston starter being in the wrong place at the wrong time. With a win, LA moves back to .500 and gets the second half started off with a win in front of the home town crowd, a place where they're still a respectable 23-20 thus far. After faltering down the stretch of the first half, I'm expecting a response from the Angels here with their "ace" on the mound. Lay the price, the play is LA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-14-23 | Marlins v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Marlins/Orioles. After a big first half from both clubs, they'll be hoping that they don't suffer too much regression here in the second half. Two starters that will be instrumental in their team's success in the second half collide here on Friday night, and in my opinion runs are going to be at a premium. Sandy Alcantara is 3-7 with a 4.72 ERA for the Marlins. He closed out the first half with a solid start against the Phillies, going seven innings and posting five K's while allowing one run. I think Alcantara will have a much more consistent/typical looking second half, after struggling in the first. The Orioles counter with Deam Kremer, who is 9-4 with a 4.78 ERA. Kremer has been a consistent bright spot for the Orioles this season, he has a 95 to 24 strikeout to walk ratio, and he's 8-2 with a 4.01 ERA in all "NIGHT" games this year. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-09-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL WEST TOY on the OVER Rockies/Giants. These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Rockies are just 14-32 on the road. They're 1-1 so far in thi series, but fell 5-3 yesterday. Both games have gone UNDER the number. The Giants have now won two of three, but they've seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight. Despite that though, note that San Francisco has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Kyle Freeland is 4-9 with a 4.93 ERA for the Rockies, while Logan Webb is 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA for the Giants. A couple of decent starters to be honest, but this is just a case of each being in the WRONG PLACE at the WRONG TIME. This number is low, the play is the OVER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-08-23 | Mariners v. Astros -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros. This is a public play, but I still really like the Astros here, and at this price, I can't avoid playing it. Seattle is now 44-43, one game over .500 after winning six of its last seven, including the first two games of this series. Note though that Houston is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. A big starting pitching mismatch as well, as Bryan Woo is 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA for the M's, while Framber Valdez is 7-6 with a 2.49 ERA for the Astros. A letdown is imminent here for Seattle after finally getting over the .500 hump. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-08-23 | Royals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Royals/Guardians. KC has now lost five straight; note though that the Royals have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight losses in a row. KC has also played to three straight UNDERS, which is signficant to note as well, as the Royals have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDRES in a row. Cleveland has also seen the total go UNDER in three straight now, which is important to note, as the Guardians are have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. I don't really trust either starter. The Royals go with Brady Singer, who is an uninspiring 5-7 with a 5.52 ERA. The home side counters with the little known Gavin Williams, who is 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-07-23 | Royals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF MONTH on the OVER Royals/Guardians. These teams have been playing to some lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Royals have lost four straight, including the opener of this one yesterday by a score of 6-1. THey've seen the total go UNDER in two straight now, but note despite the lost yesterday, KC has still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Cleveland has been trading wins and losses over its last five games and has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four. Daniel Lynch is 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA for the Royals, while Aaron Civale is 2-2 with a 2.96 ERA for the Guardians. These guys have actually been decent, but this just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time. A great situational play backed by strong trends. The play is the OVER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest.) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-06-23 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
10* UNDER Cards/Marlins (NL TOM) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The total has gone OVER the number in the first four games of this four-game series. Miami has won the first three. Note that St. Louis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge three or more straight losses against an opponent. And note that Miami has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Jack Flaherty is 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA for the Cards, while Eury Perez is 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA for Miami. Expect these two to battle deep into the latter frames, and then look for that to help in driving this total UNDER the posted number. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-05-23 | Angels v. Padres UNDER 9 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* DUEL on the UNDER Angels/Padres. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Angels have seen the total go OVER in both losses here in San Diego to open this IL series, but note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight road losses against an opponent. And San Diego has now seen the total go OVER in five of its last six. Two decent starters going head-to-head and I'm expecting them to battle into the deeper innings: The visitors go with Patrick Sandoval (4-7, 4.57 ERA), while the home side counters with Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.59.) (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-05-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Cubs/Brewers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this evening. The Cubs have seen the total go OVER in three straight now after breaking a three-game slide with a 7-6 win in the second game of this three-game series. Note though that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in five straight now after yesterday's loss snapped a three-game win streak. That's also important to take note of here, as the Brewers have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. We have to exceptional starters going head-to-head, and I think they'll battle deep: Justin Steele (9-2, 2.43 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs, while Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.88) counters for the Brewers. Everything points to a classic "duel" here, so the play is the UNDER. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-04-23 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Jays/White Sox. Toronto has lost three straight, and seen the total go OVER in two straight. Note though that the Jays have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Chicago lost two of three to Oakland over the weekend, and it's seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. That'a also significant to note as the White Sox have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERs ina row. Two really decent starters going head-to-head here as well, and I expect them to go deep. Toronto goes with Chris Bassitt, who is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA, while Chicago counters with Lucas Giolito, who is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-04-23 | Braves v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* WINNER on the Guardians on the runline. The saying, "all good things must come to an end," could not be more apt in this particular situation. Atlanta has been fantastic of late, winning nine in a row, but this is a clear starting pitching mismatch, and grabbing Shane Bieber on the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Bieber is 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA and he posted a 2.90 ERA in five June starts. Kolby Allard (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes just his second start of the season. He threw four innings of shutout ball vs. the Twins last Wednesday. Despite that though, a huge nod goes to Bieber at home here. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-03-23 | Orioles v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL EAST TOY on the OVER Orioles/Yanks. It's a big AL East matchup here to open up the new week as we head towards the half way point of the season, and I believe we're in for some offensive fireworks here in the opener. Baltimore is 5.5 games back of Tampa Bay, and New York is 9.5 games back of first place in the division. Tyler Wells is 6-4 with a 3.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP for the Orioles, while Domingo German is 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA for the Yanks. German had vien up 17 earned runs in consecutive losses to Boston and Seattle, before throwing 99 pitches and getting nine K's in an 11-0 win over the lowly A's last time out. But can anyone say immediate "letdown" spot here after that gem? It's one thing to dominate the A's this year, and quite another to do the same to the Orioles. Baltimore snapped a four-game slide with a 2-1 win over the Twins. Note that Wells is 0-4 with a 5.26 ERA in 12 career appearances vs. New York. Look for these guys to get chased early, and as such when you combine the rest of the information listed above, everything points to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-03-23 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Cubs/Brewers. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. Chicago has lost six of its last seven after yesterday's 8-6 defeat to Cleveland. It's also seen the total go OVER in two of its last three. Milwaukee has won four of its last five afterr taking two of three from the Pirates over the weekend. The Brewers have seen the total go OVER in three straight, which is signiicant to note as Milwaukee has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head, and all signs point to these guys being the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. Drew Smyly is 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA for the Cubs, while Julio Teheran is 2-3 witha 2.85 ERA (and 0.93 WHIP), for Milwaukee. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-02-23 | Giants v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Giants/Mets. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here and now. The Giants have seen the total go UNDER in six straight. Same as the Mets after their 4-1 win last night. The bottom line is that I don't trust either starter here, as Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA, while David Peterson is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA for the Mets. This O/U line should/could in fact be much larger in my opinion. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Angels. After three straight losses, including a 6-2 setback to open this interleague series, I expect the Angels to finally bounce back here on Saturday. Great price considering that they're 5-1 in their last six in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. They're also 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight home losses in a row. Arizona goes with Ryne Nelson, who is 4-4 with a 4.97 ERA. LA counters with Tyler Anderson, who is 4-2 with a 5.54 ERA. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash." The overall situation, combined with the above listed ATS trends (and also taking into account this extremely reasonable price), however do indeed make LA the correct call here on Saturday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
07-01-23 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Giants/Mets. These teams have been playing to some rather lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here finally on Saturday afternoon. San Francisco snapped a two-game slide with a 5-4 come from behind win here yesterday and it's now seen the total go UNDER in five straight. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The Mets have seen the total go UNDER in five straight as well. They've lost five of their last six as well. Two teams in need of a win here face two starters whose efforts this season could best be described as: "pedestrian." Anthony DeSclafani is 4-7 with a 4.28 ERA for the Giants, while Justin Verlander is 2-4 with a 4.11 ERA for the Mets. The situation and numbers all point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-30-23 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Twins/Orioles. Both teams had Thursday off. Both teams are in need of a victory here and we think that's going to help in translating into some offensive production on the diamond. Minnesota enters off three straight losses at Atlanta, and all three games went UNDER the number. Note that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more straight losses in a row, and in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. They've also seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after getting shutout in their previous game. Baltimore lost two of three here at home to Cincinnati, including an 11-7 setback in the finale. Pablo Lopez is 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA for the Twins, and he's 0-2 with a 4.59 ERA in eight total "night" games this season. He'll be opposed by Dean Kremer, who is 8-3 with a 4.50 ERA. He's been solid. So has Lopez for the most part. This is just a case of these guys being in the wrong place at the wrong time. And that's how I see this one breaking down. Expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-29-23 | Marlins v. Red Sox -107 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Red Sox. After dropping four in a row, including the first two in this interleague series, I like the Red Sox to dig deep and deliver here at home in the finale. Note that Boston is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Red Sox are also 8-4 in their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Miami has won four in a row, but with a National League matchup at the Braves starting tomorrow, an imminent letdown is imminent in my opinion. Jesus Luzardo is 6-5 with a 3.77 ERA for the Marlins, while Brayan Bello is 5-4 with a 3.27 ERA for the Red Sox. Bello gets the slight nod on the bump for the home field advantage, and when taking into account the other situational and trend based factors listed above, the value here is for sure on the revenge-minded home side. The play is BOSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-29-23 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Padres/Pirates. These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this afternoon. The Padres are just 17-21 on the road after losing the first two games of this series, including a 7-1 beatdown yesterday. Note though that SD has still seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. I really like both of these starting pitchers, and I expect them to battle deep, Joe Musgrove is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA for San Diego, while Luis Ortiz is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA for the Pirates. Everything points to a classic "duel" here in Pittsburgh this afternoon. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-28-23 | Yankees v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
10* OVER Yanks/A's (AL TOW) The A's have been terrible this season, so they're an automatic fade for many people this year. They're off the rare 2-1 win here last night in the series opener, but despite these teams struggling at times to plate runs of late, I still think this Over/Under line is way too low. The Yankees have seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after last night's loss. Note though that they've seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. as an opponent. They are going with Domingo German and he's an unremarkable 4-5 with a 5.10 ERA *his ERA raises to 5.91 on the road.) And for the Atheltics, they hand the ball to JP Sears, who has pitched a lot better than what his win/loss record would indicate as he's 1-5, but with a 4.10 ERA. Sears hasn't been terrible, he's actually been decent, but this is just a case of him being in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I just think there are going to be some explosive innings in this one, and when it gets to the end the total will EASILY eclipse this lower number. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-28-23 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SLUG-FET on the OVER White Sox/Angels. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end tonight in a classic "slug-fest." Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in three straight after dropping the first two games of this series. Note though that the ChiSox have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. LA has also seen the total go UNDER in three straight, and the Angels have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Both starters have been above average, but this is just a case of Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.41 ERA) and Jamie Barria (2-2, 2.14), being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-27-23 | Rays v. Diamondbacks -122 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MISMATCH on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Two really good teams, and two really good starting pitchers. But Tampa is just 20-17 on the road, while Arizona is 23-18 at home. I think that the home field advantage will turn out to be the difference-maker in the opener of this interleague series. Taj Bradley is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA for the Rays, hwile Zac Gallen is 9-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the D-Backs. At this price, and here at home, Gallen and ARIZONA are the correct calls in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 106 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Reds/Orioles. These teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Baltimore has won three straight after yesterday's 10-3 win. It's also seen the total go OVER in six of its last seven. NOte that Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. Andrew Abbott is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP for the Reds, while Tyler Wells is 6-3 with a 3.22 ERA for the Orioles. Expect a battle from these two into the latter innings, which will help in keeping this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-26-23 | Twins v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Twins/Braves. Both teams have been involved in higher-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Minnesota just took two of three at Detroit over the weekend, including yetserday's 6-3 higher-scoring victory. Atlanta took two of three from the Reds over the weekend, and all three games went OVER the number. Note though that the Braves have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. We have two really good starters going head-to-head here, and everything points to a classic "duel" in our estimation: Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for the Twins, while Spencer Strider is 8-2 with a 3.93 ERA for the Braves. Everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-25-23 | Royals v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Royals/Rays. Both teams playing to several higher-scoring games. KC has now seen it go OVER in four straight after yesterday's 9-4 victory. Tampa's now seen the total go OVER in six straight (but note that that the Rays have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five in trying to avenge an upset home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Daniel Lynch is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA for the Royals, while Tyler Glasnow is 2-1 with a 4.97 ERA for the Rays. I'm expecting them to battle deep. (This is the abbreviated version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Mets/Phillies. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this afternoon. New York has been trading high-scoring games, for lower-scoring UNDERS over its last four games. Off a 5-1 loss to open things up here yesterday, look for this pattern to continue. The Phillies though have now seen the total go UNDER in eight straight, and that fact has only helped in driving this afternoon's total a couple points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. Max Scherzer is 6-4 with a 4.04 ERA for the Mets, while Cristopher Sanchez is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA for the Phillies. He's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career games vs. the Mets. The Phillies have now won 14 of their last 18 and they're once again back in playoff contention, spurred mostly by a prolific offense. The Mets have dropped 14 of their last 18. He's dominated the Phillies in the past, but this is just a case of the veteran being in the wrong place, at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation, combined with the above O/U ATS stats makes the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-23-23 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Astros RUNLINE. Two rookies going head-to-head here and two teams that are hungry for a victory. JP France is 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA and more "battle-tested" than his counterpart. Emmet Sheehan is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after allowing one hit over six innings vs. the Giants last week in his MLB debut. The bullpen then blew it for the rookie. Regardless, regression does seem imminent here for Sheehan in this difficult second start and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is HOUSTON on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-23-23 | Brewers v. Guardians -142 | 7-1 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Guardians. Both teams have underperformed. Both really need a win. Both starters have been above average to this point. Wade Miley is 4-2 with a 3.28 ERA for the Brewers, while Shane Bieber is 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA for the Guardians. Home field advantage here is the difference-maker for us, as it benefits Bieber greatly. The Guardians have now won four straight and I expect this string of success to continue here for at least one more night. (This is the abridged version of my analysis. If you contact me via social media, we can DM and speak directly in length about any contest!) Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees -113 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Yankees. Bryan Woo is 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA for the Mariners. The rookie is actually really good, and he's coming off his best performance of the year by striking out nine on Friday and allowing two runs over 5 2/3's innings vs. the White Sox. But, I still think that at this price, Domingo German and the home side are the correct call. German is 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA and despite coming off a terrible outing, he'll be feeling confident here facing Seattle, as he's 3-0 with a 4.22 ERA in four career appearances vs. it. Seattle will once again be without the services of lead off man JP Crawford, and that really does affect this Seattle line-up. The value play of the week is on NEW YORK on Thursday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-21-23 | Red Sox v. Twins -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Twins. Minnesota comes in as the hungrier team here. The Twins have now lost three straight, including the first two of this four games series. But now with their ace on the hill, I expect the home side to draw the line in the sand and deliver. Note that the Twins are 7-3 in their last ten after three or more straight losses in a row. They're also still 8-4 in their last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. After six straight victories, I say the Red Sox have a letdown here. The advantage in starting pitching also goes to Minnesota as mentioned above. Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is a respectable 4-2 with a 4.38 ERA. Minnesota counters with Sonny Gray, who is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA. The overall situation, combined with what I deem to be a very reasonable price considering the overwhelming situational and trends based factors working in favor of it here, does indeed make MINNESOTA the savvy call here in this matchup on Wednesday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -112 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHER MISMATCH on the Brewers. Both teams came into this series hot, but the D-Backs laid the hammer down in their decisive 9-1 victory. They're now 3-1 in their last four. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for the Brewers, who previous to that had lost six straight. It's all hands on deck here for Milwaukee which will look to avoid another losing streak and make an immediate return to the winner's circle. Colin Reah is 3-4 with a 4.71 ERA for the Brewers. He also has a respectable 1.26 WHIP. I'm giving him the big nod over his counterpart Ryne Nelson, who is 3-4 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Milwaukee is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite. Good value here on the hungry BREWERS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-20-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rays | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Orioles RUNLINE. Two really hot teams, and two really decent starting pitchers. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game tonight. That said, in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Yes, Tampa is 31-7 at home, but Baltimore is 22-14 on the road. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.29 WHIP for the home side, while Kyle Bradish is 2-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP for the visitors. Evenly matched all around here, making BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option the savvy move in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -117 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Brewers. After losing three of four to Philadelphia, the D-Backs bounced back by taking two of three from Cleveland over the weekend. They dropped yesterday's contest 12-3 though and I think, despite their "ace" on the hill, that they'll have a difficult time here as well in this difficult road venue. The Brewers have been playing a lot better of late and come in with a ton of momentum after taking all three from Pittsburgh here over the weekend. Merrill Kelly is 8-3 with a 3.04 ERA for Arizona, while Corbin Burnes is 5-4 with a 3.44 ERA for the Brewers. Burnes is 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona, while Kelly is 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts vs. Milwaukee. I'm giving Burnes the advantage here at home, and that'll help in pushing the scales in favor of the home side, making this a really fair price in my opinion. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-18-23 | Rays v. Padres -136 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Padres. I really like the Rays, and think they're a dangerous club that can essentially win "on any given Sunday." I also really like Yonny Chirinos. That said, I think this one definitely favors the Padres. San Diego looks to build off yesterday's win and it catches the Rays in a good spot here, as I expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" to a day off, before five straight at home, starting with the now floundering Orioles, followed by the pathetic Royals. Musgrove is the correct call at home here, for a Padres team desperate to get on a win streak. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is SAN DIEGO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-17-23 | Reds v. Astros -120 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* IL GOM on the Astros. I think Houston offers great value to bounce back and avenge yesterday's 2-1 loss as a -170 favorite to the Reds in yesterday's series opener. Note that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Reds have won six straight now, but all good things have to come to an end. I say Cinncinnait finally suffers a letdown here. These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Hunter Greene is 1-4 with a 4.01 ERA for the REds, while Brandon Bielak is 3-3 with a 4.01 ERA for the Astros. Bielak though definitely gets the small nod here because of the "home field" advantage, and combined with the above listed "revenge" angle, as I said off the top, I think we're getting great value overall on HOUSTON to bounce back here tonight at home. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-16-23 | Orioles v. Cubs +107 | 3-10 | Win | 107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* WINNER on the Cubs. This is a starting pitching matchup that favors the home side, and I think that'll be enough to tip the scales in favor of the Cubs this afternoon. Baltimore has won six of seven, but I think it'll stumble here vs. this hungry Chicago side that needs to make up some ground. The Cubs enter with momentum now of their own after winning five of their last six, including just sweeping the Pirates. As mentioned, this is a starting pitching matchup which definitely favors Chicago, as Cole Irvin is 1-2 with a 7.85 ERA and 1.75 WHIP for the Orioles, while Kyle Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the Cubs. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is CHICAGO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-15-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Angels/Rangers. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Rangers had seen the total go OVER in five straight before last night's "push" in their 6-3 win over the Angels. That snapped a three-game losing streak. Note though that Texas has still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. We have two super solid starters going head-to-head, and they're definitley the "main" reason that I like the UNDER in this one, as LA turns to ace Shohei Ohtani (5-2, 3.32 ERA), while the home side counters with Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 2.49.) I think these two battle deep, and that'll ultimatley help in driving this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-14-23 | Yankees -106 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BOOKIEKILLER) It's always an exciting matchup whenever these two teams get together, but even more so when you have two big name starting pitchers going head to head. That said, considering the form he enters in, I just think the value here lies with Gerritt Cole and the visiting New York Yankees to build on their subway series-opening win last night. Cole does come into this one having an awesome year so far as he's 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Justin Verlander was a huge off-season signing for the Mets, but he started the season on the injured list after surgery. He enters at 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Verlander is fantastic, but this is all about "RECENT FORM" for me. Cole is also 3-0 with a 2.98 ERA on the road, while Verlander is 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA at home. Great value on a red hot pitcher, the play is NEW YORK. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL on the UNDER Brewers/Twins. After yesterday's 7-5 series opening win here by Minnesota, I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota has now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, but note that the Twins have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Milwaukee has seen the total go OVER in two straight, but it's also now lost five in a row, which works in our favor here actually, as the Brewers have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five after five or more straight losses in a row. Two battle-tested starters going head-to-head here and I like them to battle each other deep into this one. Colin Rea is 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA for the Brewers, while Bailey Ober is 3-3 with a 2.61 ERA for the Twins. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats does indeed make the UNDER the correct call in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-13-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* NL GOY on the DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE. What do you base your picks on? How do you make your selections? Do you follow one single handicapping methodology, or are you flexible with your approach? I base my picks on many different things. Often I base picks on "value." On my "perceived value" of a situation. This is one of those cases. I simply feel that the "value" is much too good to turn down here by grabbing the red hot home side on the "runline option" at this price. The D-Backs should in fact be favored here in my opinion. The fact that they're an underdog at home, and then getting an extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is the cherry on top. Zach Wheeler is 4-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Phillies, while Zach Davies is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA for the D-Backs. They're a "wash" here. But for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-12-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* AL TOM on the UNDER Angels/Rangers. I'm expecting a lower-scoring "duel" here on Monday night in the opener of this AL series. The Angels have won six of their last seven. They took two of three at home to Seattle over the weekend, and the two victories both went OVER the number, including yesterday's 9-4 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a home win as an underdog. Texas is 41-23, including 21-9 at home, but it enters having lost three of its last four. It's seen the total go OVER the number in three straight, which is definitely significant to note, as the Rangers have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. Two decent starters here. The Angels go with Tyler Anderson, who is 3-1 with a 5.62 ERA and 38:28 K:W ratio. The home side counters with ace Dane Dunning, who is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 33-13 strikeout to walk ratio. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats makes the UNDER the correct call in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-11-23 | Astros v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOTAL on the UNDER Astros/Guardians. Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games, but we expect those high-scoring trends to end tonight. After seeing the total go UNDER in three straight, the Astros have now seen the total go OVER in both games here in Cleveland, losing 10-9 in Game 1, and then bouncing back with a 6-4 victory yesterday. Note though that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Guardians have seen the total go OVER in three straight, which is also significant to note here in our case, as Cleveland has in fact seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. These starting pitchers are as solid as they come here as well. Look for a classic "duel" here between Brandon Bielak of the Astros, who is 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA, and Shane Bieber of the Guardians, who is 4-3 with a 3.57 ERA so far. All signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-10-23 | Astros v. Guardians -130 | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Guardians. Cleveland's offense has come to life of late and I think it'll build off yesterday's series opening 10-9 victory. The Guardians have in fact posted 25 total runs over their last three straight victories. They have the advantage on the mound as well in my opinion, with Triston McKenzie (0-0, 0.00), who returned from injury to go five scoreless last time out. He's 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. The Astros counter with JP France (1-1, 3.44), who faces this red-hot offense for the first time in his career. All about the VALUE here folks. The play is CLEVELAND. Good luck, NP | |||||||
06-09-23 | Twins +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Twins (RUNLINE) These two teams are suddenly going in opposite directions. But we feel that the desperate Twins are worth the price of admission here to secure the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Minnesota has now lost five straight. That's significant to note here though as the Twins are 3-1 in their last four after five or more straight losses in a row. Toronto has won three straight, but we expect it to have its hands full here today. The slight nod in the starting pitching matchup goes to the visiting side as well, as Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for the Twins, while Yusei Kikuchi is an almost as good 6-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for the Jays. We think this one'll be close, so lay the price and take MINNESOTA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-08-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Twins/Rays. This is an 'ACTION' play, meaning whoever gets the start here for either side, we believe this total will fly OVER the number. We had a play on the OVER in this series yesterday, and while that came up short in the Rays 2-1 win, we're definitely now finally expecting some offensive fireworks here today. Tampa has now won five straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight. Note though that Tampa has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Minnesota will be desperate to stop its current four-game slide. It's seen the total go UNDER in five straight as well, but note that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Bailey Ober is 3-2 with a 2.33 ERA for the Twins. He's been decent, but we feel he's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. The Rays will probably call up Yonny Chirinos from Triple A, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two career starts vs. the Twins. Whoever starts, we look for this total to go OVER the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-07-23 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Twins/Rays (AL TOY) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to get broken in a big way here this evening. Minnesota has now seen the total go UNDER the number in four straight after yesterday's 7-0 series opening loss here. Note though that the Twins have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout road loss vs. an opponent. Tampa has won four straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last eight, including in four straight (despite that though, note that the Rays have still seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.) Lots of situational and trend-based reasons pointing to the OVER as the savvy call here for sure. Neither starter has been great. Pablo Lopez is a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA for the Twins, while Cooper Criswell is a poor 1-1 with a 6.11 ERA. Look for these two teams to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-06-23 | Red Sox v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Red Sox/Guardians. Both teams come into this series having played to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a higher-scoring offensive affair here in the opener of this one. Boston comes in desperate to snap a three-game slide, losing all three at home to Tampa over the weekend. All three games went UNDER the number. Note though that the Red Sox have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight losses in a row, and in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Cleveland went 2-2 at Minnesota over the weekend and the final three games all went UNDER the number. That's also significant to note here, as the Guardians have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Two good starters, but this is just a case of them being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" this afternoon. James Paxton is a pedestrian 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA for the BoSox, while Shane Bieber is a more respectable 4-3 with a 3.72 ERA. Ultimately, we look for this total to sneak OVER the number in the latter frames. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-06-23 | Astros v. Blue Jays -126 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Jays. WE expect the Jays to bounce back after yesterday's 11-4 loss. Note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Previous to yesterday's meltdown, the Jays had won four sraight and six of their last eight. Houston has won four of its last five, but we're finally expecting a small letdown here. The Astros hand the ball to Hunter Brown, who is 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Difficult to say too many negative things about Brown, so we won't bother. He's just in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. He'll be opposed by battle-tested Kevin Gausman, who is 4-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The overall situation points to TORONTO exacting a little revenge here on Tuesday night. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-05-23 | Cubs +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Cubs. While we do feel an outright win is possible, in the end we're going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Cubs won't be taking the foot off the gas now with a chance to win their first raod series in nearly two months. The Padres continue to struggle in many facets, but especially at home. Kyle Hendricks gets the nod for the visitors and he's 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA after making his second start after returning from surgery, allowing one run over five innings in a home victory over Tampa: "I felt much more like myself," Hendricks said. "It tells me that I can just do what I do. Get back to being myself again." Hendricks has to be feeling confident here, as he's domianted the Friars throughout his career, going 8-2 with a tiny 2.61 ERA in 13 starts vs. them. Blake Snell is an unremarkable 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA for the Padres. He's 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA in three career starts vs. the Cubs. But in a contest which we see being decided late, or perhaps even in extras, the savvy call is indeed to grab the visiting side on the RUNLINE option (CUBS.) Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-04-23 | Braves v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Braves/D-Backs. Yes, these teams have been playing to several lower-scoring affairs of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks here in Arizona on Sunday afternoon. The Braves have now seen the total go UNDER in five straight after their 5-2 win here as -237 favorites. That's signficant to note though, as ATL has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. The loss snapped a six-game win streak for the D-Backs. It was also their fifth straight UNDER in a row, which is important to note as well, as Arizona has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. We like Zac Gallen, who is 7-2 with a 2.72 ERA for the D-Backs, but this is just a case of him being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." We're not sold on Mike Soroka at all for the Braves, as he's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA. It'll be a bullpen game for ATL as the Braves get ready to leave town after this. All in all, look for this one to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-03-23 | Yankees v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Yanks/Dodgers. The Dodgers have now seen the total go OVER the number in three straight after yesterday's 8-4 series opening victory. Note though that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. New York has also seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a road loss as an underdog. We have two really solid starting pitchers going head-to-head here and we're definitely expecting them to battle into the latter frames. Gerrit Cole is 6-0 with a 2.93 ERA for the Yanks. Michael Grove will counter for the Dodgers, and while he's only 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA, we look for him to settle down here finally at home. This will be a bullpen game for LA, but the Dodgers pen is solid as well. Regardless, when you add it all up, we absolutely feel this O/U line is a bit too high today. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-02-23 | Braves v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the D-Backs runline. Two really good teams here, but Arizona has been red hot and we're expecting that momentum to get carried over in the opener of this interesting three-game series. Arizona has won five straight after taking all four from Colorado over the weekend. Atlanta avoided a sweep on Wednesday with a 4-2 win over lowly Oakland. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters a "wash:" Charlie Morton is 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA for the Braves, while Merrill Kelly is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Note though that Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine as a home dog in the +101 to +115 range. We're bypassing the moneyline though and instead laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Lay the price, the play ARIZONA on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
06-01-23 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Phillies/Mets. After back-to-back losses to open up this series, scoring a total of just one run over those first two setbacks, we like the Phillies and the Mets to plate a few more here in the finale of this three game series. Note that Philly has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge two or more straight road loss against an opponent. Taijuan Walker has been the beneficiary of some offense this year, as evidenced by his 4-2, 5.57 ERA record this season. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Max Scherzer, who is 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA. This is just a case of both starters being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today, as the overall situation combined with the above listed ATS O/U stat make the OVER the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one in our opinion. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-31-23 | Yankees v. Mariners -133 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Mariners. After B2B home losses to open this series, we love the Mariners to bounce-back in the finale. Note that Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. Clarke Schmidt is getting the nod for the Yanks out of necessity and he's an unimpressive 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA this season. Schmidt has been a lot better at home as well as he's just 1-4 in New York with a 4.75 ERA, compared to 1-1 on the road to go along with a ballooned 7.37 ERA. We definitely like George Kirby in this matchup, as he's battle tested already this year, now 5-4 with a highly-respectable 3.43 ERA and 51 to 6 strikeout to walk ratio. And finally, this also sets up as a potential LOOK AHEAD spot for the Yanks as well, as they'll have one night off after this game, before a three-game series at the Dodgers, a big prime time matchup that will be carried by all of the networks etc. Great price on revenge-minded SEATTLE. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-30-23 | Royals v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Royals/Cardinals. With the Royals victory in yesterday's series opener, KC has now seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight. That's significant to note here though, as the Royals have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. And with yeterday's series opening loss, the Cards have now seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, which is also important to note here, as St. Louis has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Zach Greinke gets the nod for the Royals, and he's an unimpressive 1-5 with a a 4.55 ERA. He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas, who is a respectable 3-1 with a 4.23 ERA. This is just a case of each of these guys being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" though. The overall situation, combined with the above listed Over/Under trends does indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-30-23 | Guardians v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
10 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Guardians/Orioles. With yesterday's 5-0 series opening victory, the Guardians have now seen the total go UNDER the number in eight straight games. That fact, frankly, has helped in pushing this Tuesday total a little lower than it normally would/should be in our opinion. And with the series opening loss, Baltimore has now seen the total go UNDER the number in three straight, which is in fact significant to note as the Orioles have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. These are decent starting pitchers, but we ultimaltey believe they're in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today (Cal Quantrill is 2-3 with an unremarkable 4.75 ERA for the Guardians, while Kyle Gibson is 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA for the Orioles.) The overall situation and above listed trends do indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-29-23 | Rays v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Rays/Cubs. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end here this afternoon in Chicago. Tampa enters having seen the total go OVER the number in nine straight games after taking two of three from the Dodgers over the weekend, including yesterday's finale by a score of 11-10. Chicago is in dire need of someone to step up here and take control after four straight losses, all of which went OVER the number, including yesterday's second straight 8-5 loss to the Reds. Both starters are battle-tested: Taj Bradley is 3-1 with a 4.44 ERA for the Rays, while Marcus Stroman is 4-4 with a 2.95 ERA for the Cubs. We're expecting a classic "duel" here and as a result, the value as far as the total is concerned has indeed now finally swung to the UNDER. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-28-23 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks -109 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Diamondbacks. We are all contrarian at heart here over at The Insiders Room, however we still like Arizona in this spot. The Diamondbacks have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 in their last five after three straight losses. They lost the first two games of this series, which is also significant to note here, as Arizona is 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Tanner Houck has been pedestrian for the Sox this year, as he's just 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA. Merrill Kelly has once again led the way for the D-Backs this year, he enters 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA. With a day off before a home series vs. the Reds, we expect the Red Sox to get caught flat-footed here. Lay the short price, the play is Arizona. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Cards/Guardians. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this evening. St. Louis has seen the total go UNDER in two straight now after yesterday's 4-3 series opening loss. Previous to that though the Cards had played to five straight OVERS. Cleveland has now seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight though, which is definitely significant to note, as the Guardians have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Jack Flaherty is just 3-4 with a 5.29 ERA for the Cards, while Tanner Bibee is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA. This is just a case of each starter being in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time." In our opinion, this one will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-26-23 | Pirates v. Mariners OVER 7 | 11-6 | Win | 105 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Pirates/Mariners. Each team has been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks in the opener of this three-game series. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five, including two straight at home to Texas (both went UNDER the number.) Seattle has won five of its last six. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight though after sweeping the A's at home over the weekend. That's significant to note here though, as Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Both Mitch Keller (5-1, 2.44 ERA) of the Pirates, and George Kirby (5-3, 2.62) of the Mariners, have been decent this year, but this is just a case of being in the "wrong place," at the "wrong time." Look for this Interleague battle to be less intense defensively, and more defined by the men stepping into the box. The play is the OVER. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-25-23 | A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER A's/Mariners. Neither team scores a lot of runs, but we're expecting today's total to eclipse this tiny number. Seattle has won the first three games of this four-game series, and the lat two have fallen UNDER the number. Note that Oakland has seen the total go OVER the number though in three of its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. JP Sears is 0-3 with a 4.99 ERA for the A's, while Logan Gilbert is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA for the Mariners. Decent starters, but they're both in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" here today. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trend do indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-24-23 | Red Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Red Sox/Angels. The Angels have now seen the total go UNDER in four straight. Note though that LA has still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Boston has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is significant to note, as the Red Sox have seen the total go OVER the number in ten of their last 13 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. They've also seen the total go OVER in three of their last four off a shutout road loss vs. an opponent. Off B2B losses to open this series, clearly the Red Sox are out for some revenge here today. James Paxton is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA for Boston, but we feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Same thing for the home side's Tim Anderson, who is 1-0 with a 5.27 ERA. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trends do indeed make the OVER the correct call in this one. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-24-23 | Marlins -155 v. Rockies | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Marlins. After three straight losses, iincluding the first two in this series as favorites here in Colorado, we like the Marlins to bounce back in the finale of this three-game series with their ace on the mound. Note that Miami is 6-2 in its last eight after three or more straight losses in a row. Sandy Alcantara is just 1-5 with a 5.05 ERA for the Marlins, but we still give him the big nod over Karl Kaufmann of the Rockies, who is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA and who is being pressed into service here. Look for ALCANTARA and the MARLINS to take advantage. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-23-23 | Orioles +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Orioles. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Both teams are hot, with Baltimore coming to town off a 3-0 sweep in Toronto, while New York just all three at Cincinnati over the weekend. Kyle Bradish is 2-1 with a 3.90 ERA for the Orioles, while Gerrit Cole is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA for the Yanks. We feel these guys are a wash. With nearly 85% of the public money on the Yanks here, we feel we're getting supreme value going the other way. Lay the price, the play is BALTIMORE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-22-23 | Astros v. Brewers +105 | 12-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers. After seven straight victories, we're expecting the Astros to take a step back in the opener of this interleague series. And after snapping a three-game slide with a win in their last outing, we like the home side to buckle down and deliver. Christian Javier is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA, but we still give the nod to Corbin Burnes at home, who is 4-3 with a 3.48 ERA. Look for Burnes to be the difference-maker in this one. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-21-23 | Twins v. Angels -143 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Angels. With their "ace" on the mound, we expect the Angels to dig deep here in the finale of this three-game series. LA lost 6-2 yesterday, but note that it's 4-1 in its last five in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Pablo Lopez is faces his former team here, and he's 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Shohei Ohtani though is 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA. Ohtani is underpriced here at home in our opinion. Lay the price with confidence, the play is the ANGELS. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-20-23 | Cubs v. Phillies -163 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Phillies. Coming into this series on Friday night, the Phillies have lost four straight. Whether they win or lose on Friday, we think this Saturday matchup absolutely favors Aaron Nola and the home side. Nola is 3-3 with a 4.53 ERA after allowing four runs off six hits over seven innings in a loss to the Rockies in his last outing. Last year Nola was 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd and as we mentioned above, he for sure has the advantage of his counterpart Jameson Taillon, who is 0-2 with a 6.66 ERA after allowing four runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing. Look for the hungry home side to take advantage of what we feel is a lop-sidedly favorable starting pitching matchup. Lay the price, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-19-23 | Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
9 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Cubs/Phillies. Talk about two teams in dire need of a "spark." And talk about two teams that need their starting pitchers to go deep here to alleviate some pressure of these taxed bullpens. The Cubs are 19-24, including just 8-13 on the road, while the Phillies are just 20-23 overall, but a more respectable 11-7 at home. Marcus Stroman is 2-4 with a 3.24 ERA for Chicago and has remained a consistent bright spot. Ranger Suarez is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA for the Phillies. Suarez catches a break here though facing an anemic Cubs offense that's been outscored 47-17 over their last five games. Stroman has struggled himself over his last three outings, but he's 4-4 with a 2.45 ERA in ten starts vs. the Phillies. Suarez is in fact 0-1 with a respectable 3.00 ERA in two lifetime starts vs. the Cubs. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deeper than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, and for that to ultimately help in driving this total UNDER the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-18-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the UNDER Guardians/White Sox. Two teams from a poor division. If the AL East is one of the best, then AL Central has to be one of the worst. Minnesota is the only team with a winning record. The White Sox are 16-28, while the Guaridans are 19-23. The firt two games of this series (both ChiSox wins), have gone "over" the numbrer, but with two decent starters going head-to-head in the finale, we're finally expecting more of a "duel" here on Thursday. Logan Allen is 1-1 with a 3.43 ERA for the Guardians, while Dylan Cease is 2-2 with a 4.86 ERA for the White Sox. We're expecting each to go deep and for this total to ultimately stay "under" the number once it's all said and done. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-17-23 | Angels v. Orioles -133 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Orioles. The Angels won the opener 9-5 with Ohtani on the hill, and Baltimore then bounced back with the 7-3 win yesterday. We're expecting the home side to build off yesterday's victory. The Angels are 12-12 on the road, while Baltimore is 14-7 at home. Griffin Canning gets the call for the Angels and he's 2-1 with a 6.38 ERA. He' been nothing special. Kyle Bradish is 1-1 with a 4.56 ERA so far for the Orioles. Baltimore is playing at a much higher level overall than the Angels, and has been more consistent across the board, while playing in a much tougher division. The Angels bullpen has been shaky at best this year, so Baltimore also wins in that department. When you add it all up, we feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Run, don't walk to bet this one. The play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-16-23 | Rays v. Mets -153 | 8-5 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Mets. We're going to lay the price here and expect New York to lay the hammer down in the opener of this interleague series. The Mets have been trading wins/losses over their last seven games, and off a 10-3 loss at Washington yesterday afternoon, we expect this pattern to continue here in this favorable matchup. The Rays of course have been the talk of the league to open up this year, but they actually have started to regress of late, going just 2-4 in their last six. Off a tough 8-7 win at New York two nights ago, we think that Jalen Beeks will have his hands full on the road today. Beeks is once again starting out of necessity and he's so far just 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. Justin Verlander counters for the home side and he's 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. It's our belief that this line could/should be a lot larger. Lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-15-23 | Angels -122 v. Orioles | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Angels. The Angels are 21-20, while the Orioles are 26-14. Baltimore plays in a tough division, but we still say this one will be decided almost entirely be these starting pitchers. At least, we feel that Shoei Ohtani at this price, despite being on the road, and in this matchup, offers fantastic overall value. Ohtani is 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, while his counterpart Grayson Rodriguez is 2-0, but with a poor 5.08 ERA. The Angels are desperate for a spark after dropping four of their last five, and we're counting on Ohtani being that torch. Lay the price, the play is LA. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-14-23 | Braves v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the OVER Braves/Jays. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this afternoon. ATL has lost three straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight after back-to-back losses here in TO. Note though that ATL has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row, and in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. The Braves have also seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Jays have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that TO has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The starters have been decent. Collin McHugh is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA for the Braves, but the sample size is just too small and regression feels imminent. Same thing for Yusei Kikuchi of the Jays, who is an unrealistic 5-0 with a 3.35 ERA. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats all do indeed point to the OVER as the correct call in this one. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-13-23 | Royals v. Brewers -151 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers. The Brewers snapped a two-game slide with a 5-1 win here in yesterday's series opener and we like the NL Central leader to keep the foot on the gas here on Saturday in another favorable matchup. The Royals hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA, while the Brewers counter with Adrian Houser, hwo is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA. Look for Houser to get the better of his floundering counterpart and lay this price with confidence. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-13-23 | Pirates v. Orioles -159 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Orioles. The Pirates were the talk of the town over the first month of the season, but they've since come back down to Earth, having lost ten of their last 11 after yesterday's 6-3 series opening loss here. We say this streak of futility continues in this lop-sided starting pitching mismatch. The Orioles play in the most difficult division in MLB and they've now won three straight. They hand the ball to Tyler Wells, who is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA. The Pirates counter with the volatile Roansy Contreras, who is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA. At some point the Pirates will start to offer some value, but at this point we're absolutely expecting their slide back into mediocrity will continue for a while. Lay the price with confidence, the play is BALTIMORE. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-12-23 | Mariners -115 v. Tigers | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Mariners. Seattle is 8-7 on the road, while Detroit is 8-7 at home. Despite that, we feel this is one that favors Marco Gonzales and the visiting side. Gonzales is 2-0 with a 4.70 ERA for the Mariners this season and he's 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in seven career starts vs. Detroit. The Tigers' Matt Boyd is just 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. He's 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in six career appearances vs. Seattle, but the current form of these starters does favor Gonzales here. We think Detroit takes a step back here after a successful six-game road trip which saw them go 4-2. The play is SEATTLE. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-11-23 | Giants -126 v. Diamondbacks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Giants. Both teams need a win, but we'll argue that San Francisco is the hungrier club in the opener of this three-game series. The Giants are 16-20, and the D-Backs are 20-17. San Francisco has lost three of its last four, including two of three in the Nation's capital this week. Arizona has also lost three of its last four, including two in a row at home as a favorite vs. Miami. Alex Cobb is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA for the Giants, while Tommy Henry is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERA for the D-Backs. The sample size is still just too small for Henry here, but we feel he's in over his head. Overall, the line value is really good here considering the talent discrepancy between these starters. The play is SAN FRANCISCO. Good luck, TIR | |||||||
05-10-23 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 8-1 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
6 OUT OF 10 CONSENSUS on the Brewers RUNLINE. Off a 6-2 loss yesterday, we like the Brewers and their ace Wade Miley to, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the very end. Milwaukee won the opener of this series by a score of 9-3. The Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw, who is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA, while the home side does indeed go with Miley, who is 3-1 with a 2.31 ERA. Note that Milwaukee is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. The outright is possible, but great overall value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is MILWAUKEE on the RUNLINE option. Good luck, TIR |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |