Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-08-17 | Angels v. Mariners -121 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
| |||||||
09-08-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals -169 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I played against the Cardinals yday, but will jump right back on them today. I don't think yday's shutout loss was all that damning, though it does leave them three games back of the Rockies in the Wild Card chase as well as five back of the Cubs in the NL Central. The Redbirds did take the first three games in San Diego and now find themselves back at home w/ a hot pitcher starting. They're also 3-1 this year coming off a shutout loss. As for the Pirates, well, it's all over but the shouting for them. They did split four games w/ the Cubs to start the week, but they lost the last two (8-2 yday) and they're way back in the playoff hunt. This series could very well "end" the Bucs' season while at the same time elevating the Cards to right where they need to be. I'm on the home team in tonight's series opener. Luke Weaver will toe the rubber here for St. Louis. He officially joined the rotation in late July and his first start wasn't all that impressive as it saw him allow four runs in five innings and the Cards lost 4-0 to the D'backs. Since then, however, Weaver has been totally lights out. He has a 37-6 KW ratio his L4 starts, all Cardinals victories, and has allowed only 6 ER in 26 IP. Admittedly, he hasn't faced a lot of great offenses during this stretch, but it's not as if Pittsburgh comes in hitting the cover off the baseball either. The Pirates rank tied for 26th in runs scored, are 27th in team batting average and 29th in slugging. On the road is where things tend to grow quite dire as they are batting just .239 for the year. They scored just three runs the past two days (at home) and are 28-40 on the road overall. St. Louis has some of the best pitching in the National League and to counter, Pittsburgh will send Trevor Williams to the hill. Williams actually has a 0.90 ERA his L3 starts, but a 1.400 WHIP over the same time makes you question just how good he's been. Having allowed 21 hits in 20 IP w/ eight walks is not a recipe for success, yet that's what Williams is doing. Last time out, he got through seven scoreless innings despite giving up eight hits. He was also facing the sorry Reds. This will be his third time starting against the Cardinals since the All-Star Break. The previous two both were at home and he allowed 17 hits in 8 2/3 IP, not to mention three home runs the last time he faced them. The Cards are the much better ballclub here and simply aren't being adequately priced. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
09-08-17 | Yankees -156 v. Rangers | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -156 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): The Yankees finished up their series w/ Baltimore a day later than expected (Wednesday rainout), but it proved to be "worth the wait" as they rolled to a 9-1 win yday. They are seemingly in comfortable position as far as the playoffs go, currently holding the top Wild Card spot. But they also are chasing the Red Sox in the AL East (3.5 gms back) and have a vastly superior YTD run differential (+147 vs. +81) compared to their rival. To me, this is pretty clearly one of the best teams in baseball. Tonight, they start a new series in Texas where the Rangers are desperately trying to hunt down the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. Despite outscoring their opponents by 42 runs this year, the Rangers are just one game over .500. That's a stark contrast to LY when they won 95 games (most in AL!), but had a run diff of only +8. Texas is 2.5 gms back of Minnesota for that 2nd WC. They were off yday after splitting a doubleheader w/ Atlanta on Wednesday. We have a battle of hot starting pitchers in tonight's series opener, but in the case of the Rangers, that really surprises me. Martin Perez does not grade out well at all, so the fact he has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts is downright shocking. He has a 2.25 ERA his last three, but a 1.400 WHIP over the same time indicates he's been pretty fortunate to still come out on the winning end. That stretch doesn't even include when Perez allowed six runs to the White Sox, in what ended up being a 17-7 Rangers' victory. For the year, Perez still sports a 4.82 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. He has a 12.86 ERA in two career starts vs. the Yankees. Bottom line is I would not trust Perez here or moving forward. The Yankees lineup is back at full strength and has scored 22 runs in the last three games. So they should have no problem getting to Perez. As for neutralizing the Rangers, Masahiro Tanaka comes into tonight in fine form. Like Perez, he is 3-0 his L3 starts and the ERA is similar (2.15). But WHIP tells a much different story as Tanaka's is 0.952 while Perez's is 1.400. Yes, the season-long numbers for the two pitchers remain somewhat similar. But Tanaka has allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts, five of those seeing him go at least six innings. While he's been backed by plenty of run support during that time, he hasn't really needed it. Beware that even though the Yanks have a losing road record this season, they are actually +0.8 rpg in those contests. Texas is just 1-4 this season as a ML home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 8* NY Yankees | |||||||
09-08-17 | Ohio +4.5 v. Purdue | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
10* Ohio (8:00 ET): The better team is getting points here. Yes, Purdue just gave #16 Louisville all it could handle in a 35-28 loss (on a neutral field), easily covering the 24.5-point spread. But that plays right into Ohio's and our hands. Of course, theoretically, the idea of Big 10 schools scheduling these MAC opponents is to pick up an easy, early-season win. But as you can tell from the number here, easy is not what the oddsmakers are anticipating for the Boilermakers. Furthermore, there's a trend that we can lean on when you have a Big 10 team as a slight favorite against a MAC opponent and it's not good for the team from the bigger conference. Going back to 2008, there has been 23 instances of a MAC team being either a single-digit dog or favorite against a school from the Big 10. The MAC team has gone 15-8 ATS in those games and 12-11 straight up. Just last week we saw this situation play out. Illinois, one of the worst Big 10 teams, hosted Ball State and was laying just 4.5 points at the betting window. The Illini won, but only by a 24-21 margin, and not only did they need to come from behind to win at home, they were outgained 375-216 and had to block a potential game-tying FG as time expried to preserve the win. Purdue isn't quite as bad as Illinois, but they still project as one of the weakest teams in the Big 10. However, the big difference here is that while Ball State is - at best - a middle of the road MAC program, Ohio is one of the top teams in that conference. In fact, this may be one of Frank Solich's best squads in his 13 years (longest tenured HC in Group of 5) in Athens. Solich has a solid 13 starters back from a team that won the MAC East last season and gave unbeaten Western Michigan all it could handle. Week 1 saw the Bobcats whip FCS Hampton 59-0, even getting to rest some starters, including QB Quinton Maxwell. The defense held the Pirates to just 108 total yards and seven first downs. Purdue was able to move the ball against Louisville last week and even led outright early in the 4Q. But they were severely outgained in the game (524-344) and would have lost by a wider margin were it not for three Cardinals' turnovers. Two of them being fumbles at the goal line! Granted, Purdue had four turnovers themselves, one of them that was returned for a TD. But I'll argue they're going up against a better defense this week. They ran for only 51 yards on 21 carries last week and the QB situation remains unsettled here in West Lafayette. I'm thinking upset Friday night. Take the points. 10* Ohio | |||||||
09-07-17 | Cardinals v. Padres +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Diego (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Padres at +1.5. St. Louis was a pretty easy call for the first three games of this series as they check in w/ one of the NL's better pitching staffs and are up against MLB's worst offense. Furthermore, the Cardinals are desperately trying to make a playoff push (two games back of Wild Card, four games behind the Cubs in the NL Central) and can't afford to drop games to the team w/ the worst overall run differential in the sport. The Redbirds probably caught the Padres feeling a little "full of themselves" too as over the weekend, SD took three of four from the Dodgers. But history says that it's hard to sweep a four-game series on the road and a sharp line move has led me to taking the Padres (w/ a little added insurance) here. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Believe it or not, but San Diego actually has a winning record at home. They even came into this series sporting a 38-32 record at Petco Park. As you might expect, they've had trouble putting runs on the road against the Cardinals. Tonight the task will remain tough as they face Lance Lynn, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 12 starts this year, most in all of MLB. However, the Cards have lost each of the L4 times he has started, three of those coming by one run. A one-run game, either way, is all we're looking for here remember. Might Lynn simply be "due" to win a one-run game? What I do know is St. Louis has played the second highest number of one-run games this season at 46. I'm also a little concerned w/ the fact Lynn is coming off working eight scoreless inning for the first time in three seasons. He's almost certainly due to regress. He also doesn't have the best KW ratio and, in fact, has four or less strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. The Padres counter w/ veteran Clayton Richard, who also pitched well his last time out. In his case, Richard enabled the Padres to "steal" a game from the heavily favored Dodgers by allowing only three hits over six innings. He also holds a recent win over Lynn and the Cardinals, back on 8.22. Ironically, that was the ONLY time in the eight starts that Richard did NOT go at least six innings (he went 5 2/3). Last week's game against the Dodgers was obviously the last time Richard started here at home. The time before that saw him go the distance w/ a CG three-hitter against the Phillies. Three of Richards' last six outings have resulted in one-run games as have six of Lynn's last nine. 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5) | |||||||
09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -166 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -166 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The slide continues in Los Angeles as the Dodgers have now lost 10 of 11 following last night's 3-1 loss (in 10 innings) to Arizona. Consider that the one win during this stretch was w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound against sorry San Diego. Other than that, it's been all losses, including five of them to Arizona. Thus, it's no surprise that the Diamondbacks' hottest stretch of 2017 has coincided w/ the Dodgers decline. The D'backs have now won 12 straight and are comfortably ahead in the NL Wild Card race. But I'm still sticking with the home team here. While I called Monday (lost 13-0!) the official "nadir" of their season, yday was their fifth loss in a row, which ties a season-high (set before Kershaw started against SD). I cannot see the Dodgers being swept for a second time in as many weeks by the D'backs, at Chavez Ravine no less. Though they've lost each of the last two days, the prices we're getting on the Dodgers in this series are pretty remarkable. Yes, they had to face Zack Greinke yday. But still, this is a team that's gone 52-18 at Chavez Ravine this year. The Dodgers were probably long overdue to start "giving some back," but we're hardly even a week removed from talk that this team would set the single season wins record. They allow only 3.2 rpg at home w/ opposing hitters batting a collective .212 here. Kenta Maeda gets the nod for Wednesday as he hopes for far better results than what we saw from him in Arizona last week. He allowed seven runs in three innings, but as I've mentioned before, Arizona's offense production goes way down on the road. Case in point, while Maeda has now been roughed up twice at Chase Field this year, the Dodgers did win (8-4) the lone time he faced them here at home. Maeda has a 9-1 team start record at Dodger Stadium this year w/ a 3.12 ERA and 1.006 WHIP. He'll need to be on par w/ those numbers tonight if he hopes to outduel Taijuan Walker, who has been lights out for the D'backs of late. In his L3 starts, Walker's ERA is 0.54! That includes five shutout innings of three-hit ball (w/ 10 K's!) at Coors Field his last time out. But let's be sure to note that he'd allowed 5 ER in B2B starts before these last three. As good as Walker and Arizona have been lately (haven't trailed in 98 innings!), you have to think they may have peaked. The Dodgers, still 27-17 off a loss this year, are too good to be swept at home. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
09-06-17 | Nationals v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami had some legit momentum heading into last week's series in the Nation's Capital. They'd won seven of eight, which had them three games above .500 and thinking Wild Card. But the Nationals swepts them and things have gone south ever since. The Fish have just one win in their last nine games and are now facing the prospect of being swept by the Nats for a second time in as many weeks. I did cash Miami on the RL last night as they competed against Stephen Strasburg, losing only 2-1 despite the obvious pitching mismatch. Seeing as the revenge angle is still in play here, I'll again say that the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. Washington is not hittting well right now, which also "opens the door" for Miami to potentially "steal one" on Wednesday. Over the last seven games, the Nats are averaging just 3.0 rpg while batting a collective .204. They've topped three runs just one time in the past six games! Monday saw the lineup, save for two players (Daniel Murphy & Anthony Rendon) go 2 for 26 at the plate. Murphy again bailed them out w/ a HR last night, but again the rest of the lineup struggled. Remember that Bryce Harper remains out. Thus, I'm willing to bank on Dillon Peters, who makes just his second career start tonight. The first went quite well as he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ eight strikeouts. It ended up being a hard-luck loss for the Marlins (2-1 to Philadelphia), but again, a one-run game (either way) here is just fine. Miami has one of, if not THE, best hitters in the game on its roster. That would of course be Giancarlo Stanton, who homered Monday, but went 0 for 4 w/ a pair of strikeouts yday. Still, MLB's home run leader won't be down for long and certainly gives his team a shot to win on a daily basis. The pitcher that the Marlins will face here is Gio Gonzalez, who had been hot prior to his last outing where he allowed five runs in six innings. Gonzalez has definitely had Miami's number in 2017 w/ a 3-0 record (four starts) and 1.29 ERA, but two of the four games were decided by one run. Again, either way, that's just fine for us tonight. The Washington bullpen always remains a concern, especially on the road where it has a 5.19 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5) | |||||||
09-06-17 | Angels v. A's +116 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 116 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. I cashed them on the RL yday, but it was an 8-7 loss, meaning that the revenge factor is still in play here. Last week, the A's were swept by the Angels down in Anaheim and they are facing a repeat of that if they were to lose again today. Though these AL West rivals are seemingly headed in very opposite directions right now, I'll still back the home team as they've outhit the Angels in the series and LA continues to give up a LOT of runs (45 in the L6 games!). The Angels have also played more one-run games (43) than any other team in the American League. They've lost eight straight, but again, Oakland does no worse than a one-run loss here. It's not as if the A's haven't been competitive in the first two games of this series. Certainly, they've played a lot better than they did in last week's series in Anaheim. Of course, that's not surprising when you consider the team is a respectable 37-33 at home compared to 21-47 on the road. Both games in this series have gone to extra innings. Oakland initally took a 4-0 lead in Monday's opener, but could not hold on and lost 11-9 in 11 innings. That's despite the fact they had a 16-13 edge in hits and made the Angels burn through an AL record 12 pitchers in one game. Last night saw the A's again finish w/ the edge in hits (13-9), but it still wasn't enough in a 10-inning loss. Eventually, this has to catch up w/ the Angels though. Their last five games have lasted more than 21 hours and the bullpen has been heavily taxed during that stretch. With last night's win, the Angels moved ahead of the Twins for the AL's second Wild Card by one-half game. This insane race features seven teams separated only 2.5 games. Regular followers of mine know that I'm not at all surprised by the Angels' ascension, as I called for it several weeks ago. But I remain highly skeptical of their ability to win by any kind of margin w/ the current state of the pitching staff. Today, Tyler Skaggs gets the starting nod. He comes in w/ a 9.49 ERA and 1.703 WHIP his L3 starts. Oakland did not have the luxury of facing him in last week's series at Anaheim, which is too bad because Skaggs is 0-3 w/ a 6.75 ERA all-time vs. the A's including a pair of losses here in '17. Oakland counters here w/ Sean Manaea, who has pitched much better of late following an awful start to August. Last time out, he allowed just three runs in 6 2/3 IP. It ended up being a 3-2 loss at Seattle, but that result would work for us here thanks to the RL. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) | |||||||
09-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
09-05-17 | Angels v. A's +1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. I did the same yday and came away w/ a very unfortunate result as the A's tied the game in the bottom of the ninth (9-9) only to lose - by two runs - in 11 innings. It took 12 pitchers, an American League record for one game, for the Angels to get the job Monday and you have to wonder where that leaves the staff for tonight's game. Given the number of runs the Halos have been allowing recently (38 in the L5 games!), I think I'm right to question what they'll do on that side of the ledger this evening. Remember what I said about Oakland at home (vs. on the road) in yday's analysis (they have a winning record at home) and that the revenge angle in still in play here. While they are the worst road team in baseball, the A's are a respectable 37-32 in their home park this season, which translates into a modest profit. True to form, Tuesday's starter Kendall Graveman is unbeaten in seven starts here (3-0) w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.339 WHIP. The A's could really use a strong start from Graveman in this spot or at least something better than he gave them last week when he allowed five runs in five innings against this very same opponent. He allowed three home runs, which would be more concerning if not for the fact he'd allowed only three in his previous eight starts combined. Graveman had also delivered three consecutive quality starts previously where he'd allowed just five runs in 20 IP. Also, remember that last start came in Anaheim. Angels skipper Mike Scioscia has a predicament on his hands here. Starter Garrett Richards, making his first start since returning from returning from the 60-day RL, is reportedly going to be limited to 50 (or so) pitches here. Given the heavy bullpen usage yday, what is Scioscia to do? Yes, I know rosters are expanded in September, but considering three different relievers failed to record even a single out yday, what is there to turn to here? The A's outhit the Angels yday and had a four-run lead after the 1st inning. Fatigue has to be a major factor at this point for the Halos, whose last four games have lasted nearly 17 hours. This will be only the fourth time this season that he team, which has a losing road record, is north of -125 on the money line away from home. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) | |||||||
09-05-17 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. The O's lost for me yday, 7-4, despite the fact they took an early 3-0 lead and had their best starter (Dylan Bundy) on the hill. Needless to say, I was pretty disappointed by the result. The Yankees scored all seven of their runs across three innings, five of them coming off Bundy via two home runs. While the result certainly solidified the Yanks' playoff position (3.5 game lead in Wild Card, 2.5 back of Red Sox in AL East), it definitely hurt Baltimore's as they remain 1.5 gms back of Minnesota for the Wild Card. I'm going to stick w/ the home team Tuesday, however, as they still have revenge for a prior sweep and at Camden Yards, their record is 43-29. Jeremy Hellickson will get the starting nod here for Baltimore and while he's struggled of late, don't forget he did beat Boston (as a +150 dog) back on 8.25. He's 4-2 w/ a 3.21 ERA vs. the Yankees lifetime. He has not faced them in 2017 ... until now. Obviously, avoiding the long ball has to be a priority. But a big part of Hellickson's problem lately has been that that virtually every baserunner he allows is scoring. Better luck in that department is due and would certainly aid in changing his fortune. Also, let's not forget that Baltimore has one of the better bullpens in the game. Buck Showalter always seems to get his teams to overachieve and 2017 has been no different. It's easy to forget that the Orioles ended August by winning seven of eight. The acquisition of Tim Beckham at the trade deadline has paid major dividends thus far. Last night, he hit his third leadoff HR since coming over. While that didn't translate to a win, his effect on the top of the batting order has been big. Scoring runs has never been a problem for the O's and they're 4th in team batting average + third in slugging. It will be a familiar foe they're facing tonight in CC Sabathia, who has pitched well of late. Three straight quality starts have produced a 1.89 ERA and 1.053 WHIP for the hefty lefty, but don't forget he allowed four runs in three straight starts previous to this stretch. Sabathia has struggled in his two starts this year vs. the Orioles as he has a 6.94 ERA w/ a pair of no decisions. Both starts were back in April and the last one saw him give up seven runs in 5 2/3 IP. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) | |||||||
09-05-17 | Royals v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers at +1.5. The home team lost by only a single run yday, thereby cashing on the RL, but also leaving the revenge angle open. The Royals have now won six in a row over the Tigers, the last four victories all coming here at Comerica Park. Yes, one team (KC) still has Wild Card aspirations while the other (Detroit) is well out of contention. But the respective YTD run differentials are pretty similar here w/ the Royals having been outscored by 70 runs in '17 and the Tigers by 94. Yes, Detroit has now lost five in a row overall (swept here at home by red-hot Cleveland over the weekend), but let's not forget that the Royals have been shut out FIVE times in the last 10 games as well w/ three of those games seeing them lose by a margin of 12 runs or greater! Neither starting pitcher for this Tuesday matchup is in fine form. We start w/ the Royals' Jason Vargas, who who is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 7.47 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. Overall, the team has dropped five of his six starts and really it hasn't mattered how Vargas has performed seeing as the offense was blanked (shut out) in three of the games. But last time out, Vargas allowed three home runs in a loss to the Rays. Now the Tigers' Anibal Sanchez has been no better and, in fact, he's actually been worse all season and recently w/ a 13.50 ERA & 2.207 WHIP his L3 starts. But this will be his first time starting since 8.16 and in terms of who is facing who, it's advantage Sanchez as he's got a 2.94 ERA in 16 career starts vs. the Royals while Vargas has a 6.03 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Detroit. The last time Vargas faced the Tigers was back in July and he was hit hard, giving up six runs in just 2 2/3 IP. Earlier, I mentioned the respective YTD run differentials of the two teams. What's interesting is that the Royals have still managed to go .500 while the Tigers are now 21 games below. In terms of the number of wins you'd expect from those respective run differentials, Kansas City is only at 60, one better than Detroit. So while the Tigers' record is essentially "what it should be," the Royals have clearly overachieved by staying in Wild Card contention. In fact, their +8 difference in actual vs. expected wins is the largest in the American League! The recent routs they've been on the wrong end of certainly skew the numbers somewhat, but consider that their last three wins have all come by one run margins as well. That's a result we'd be just fine w/ again tonight. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) | |||||||
09-05-17 | Nationals v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami made a nice little run at the end of August, at one point winning seven of eight. But then they ran into the Nationals and things have gone south in a hurry. The Fish were swept in the Nation's Capital last week, then after dropping three of four to the last place Phillies over the weekend, they lost to the Nats again on Monday (despite actually checking in as the ML favorite). They are decided underdogs Tuesday as Stephen Strasburg will pitch for the Nats, but that also opens up an opportunity to grab the added insurance that the RL provides, at an affordable price. Having lost six in a row to the Nats, the revenge angle is definitely still in play for the Marlins here. Strasburg is 14-7 w/ a 3.26 ERA in 27 career starts vs. Miami. This includes a complete game effort (six-hit shutout) his last time out. But he has struggled some here on South Beach w/ a 4.76 ERA and losing record in nine outings. That last time was at home, remember, and I'm interested to see how he performs coming off a 110-pitch outing where he also helped himself w/ a home run. Several Marlins' hitters, most notable among them Giancarlo Stanton, have good career numbers against Strasburg. Stanton, who hit his MLB-leading 52nd HR yday, has a .333 liftetime batting average (45 AB's) and a 1.111 OPS. Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto are two other Miami hitters that have had Strasburg's number in the past. So this is not the insurmountable task it may look like on paper. While two of Washington's hitters - Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy - went a combined 6 for 9 w/ 2 HR's last night - the rest of the lineup was just 2 for 26. Remember that Bryce Harper is still out. That certainly comes as good news for Miami starter Odrisamer Despaigne. This will be Despaigne's third start since rejoining the rotation. He's been pretty good in the first two, allowing just four runs total in 10 IP. Granted, that came against the Padres and Phillies. But even so, both were one-run games, a result that would be fine for us (either way!) tonight. In my opinion, a team w/ the caliber of hitter like Stanton, getting an additional 1.5 runs, is a bargain at almost any price. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5) | |||||||
09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers were long overdue to "give a little back," but safe to say no one foresaw what happened to them on the recently completed road trip where they finished 1-6 w/ three straight losses to the lowly Padres! That road trip began w/ them getting swept in Arizona and now they return home a hungry and revenge-minded team. All things considered, this is an incredible price on team that's gone a ridiculous 52-16 at home this season and has a pitcher the caliber of Rich Hill on the bump. Yes, Arizona is the National League's hottest team right now (won 10 straight!), but I don't see them having the same kind of success here at Chavez Ravine that they did at Chase Field last week. After all, the D'backs are a losing proposition away from home. Hill has had a fantastic year for the Dodgers, just like most members of the starting rotation. He was roughed up for six runs last week in Arizona, but that came on the heels of one of the most hard luck decisions in recent memory, a game where Hill didn't allow a single hit for nine innings, yet lost 1-0 at Pittsburgh (10-0 KW ratio). Last time out snapped a stretch of Hill allowing three runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts. Strangely, his TSR at home is only 6-4. But it's no secret that the Dodgers are #1 "with a bullet" when it comes to run suppression at home, allowing just 3.1 rpg here w/ opponents batting .211! Again, the Dodgers are 52-16 in this ballpark this season. Prior to getting swept by Arizona last week, the team had not lost more than three in a row all year! Arizona counters with one of their top arms, Robbie Ray, who has been extra sharp of late. He had 10 K's in a win over the Dodgers last week where he allowed just one run and four hits in 6 2/3 IP. With the sweep in Colorado over the weekend, the D'backs very much solidified the likelihood that they will be the top Wild Card in the National League. But now it's time for them to give a little back as I cannot remember the last time the Dodgers were priced this low on the money line at home. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
09-04-17 | Angels v. A's +1.5 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the A's +1.5. Just last week these AL West rivals met and it was the Angels sweeping in Anaheim. Oakland would go on to finish its road trip at 0-6 after also being swept in Seattle over the weekend. While I'm on the record as saying the Halos will be the AL's second Wild Card, I believe this afternoon is a good time to fade them. Not only is this a revenge spot for the Athletics, but the shift in scene definitely matters. Oakland may be the worst road team in baseball, but they have a winning record here at home (37-31). Furthermore, the price on the Angels here is a little bit rare as it marks only the third time this season they are a road fave of -125 or higher on the money line. They've gone 0-2 previously! Parker Bridwell has been a revalation for the Angels starting rotation as he leads the way w/ a 12-2 team start record this year. But he's been nowhere near as dominant as that TSR might seem to suggest. In fact, Oakland just roughed him up last week, scoring seven times off him in just three innings. The Angels were then able to rally for a 10-8 victory, allowing Bridwell to escape what should have been a sure loss. Bridwell's ERA now stands at 3.67, which is downright mediocre. Something else to note here is that LA flew into Oakland a little later than expected due to Sunday's game w/ Texas going so long. The Angels dropped two of three in Arlington over the weekend, both losses coming by one run, and have now given up a total of 29 runs their last four games. It's tough to consistently win, especially by any kind of margin, when you're giving up that many runs. Oakland has their own embattled starter going here. Chris Smith has never won in eight starts and did not fare well against the Angels last week. He was charged w/ seven runs in 3 2/3 IP (only on five hits though). Still, Smith has a respectable 1.157 WHIP in his four starts at home. Before losing 10-2 yday, the A's last two losses were both by one run margins. They have a winning record this year (9-8) after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. The Angels have played the most one-run games of any team in the American League (42) and I feel the home team, returning home and armed w/ revenge, will do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) | |||||||
09-04-17 | Edmonton +12 v. Calgary | Top | 18-39 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 22 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (3:00 ET): What a difference a couple of weeks can make. Two weeks ago, Edmonton was undefeated (7-0) and the toast of the league. Now, following losses to Winnipeg and Saskatchewan, they're 7-2 and back in an all-too familiar place, which is looking up at rival Calgary in the standings. But they're starting to get healthy again w/ both WR Adarius Bowman and linebacker Adam Konar expected back in the lineup today after long absences. Edmonton has had a terrible time in the past covering on Labour Day as they are 0 for 11 ATS their L11 Week 11 matchups. But while the Stamps have won the last five LD matchups by an average of nine points and never trailed in the last four, four of those have been decided in the final three minutes. This time Edmonton is a double digit dog and a great value. Take the points. The Eskimos are off their worst game of the season as they were beaten soundly (at home!) by Saskatchewan, 54-31, as 5.5-pt favorites. Five turnovers certainly did not help there as QB Mike Reilly played - easily - his worst game of 2017. Interestingly, total yards in that game were basically even, so the turnovers really did play a large role in determining the final score. Skeptics will point out that Edmonton has zero wins this year over a team that currently has a winning record, but the market has simply shifted far too much against them here. Previously, they have not been an underdog of more than 4.5 pts. They also have beaten 5-5 B.C. twice. Their YPG differential of +70 exceeds that of Calgary. The Stamps are the hottest team in the league right now as they've won and covered five straight. However, three of those wins/covers came against Eastern Division foes, so critics could poke a hole in their resume as well. It was a very close game when they won at B.C. two weeks ago (21-17). Other than that, they've gotten to play Toronto twice and Hamilton in the last four weeks. Incredibly, they're a bigger favorite this week than they were last against the Argos. That makes no sense to me. The Calgary defense has been quite stingy of late, but Edmonton's offense will test them as Reilly should have a bounce back game. Stampeders QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been pretty up and down himself of late. Bottom line is that in a rivalry game such as this, you should expect a closely played affair and Edmonton is being way undervalued due to past Labour Day struggles. 10* Edmonton | |||||||
09-04-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -126 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (2:05 ET): The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after taking three of four from Boston over the weekend. They even slammed Chris Sale last night in a 9-2 victory that now has them 3.5 gms back of the first place Red Sox. But today marks an excellent opportunity to fade the team wearing pinstripes as not only are they on the road immediately following Sunday Night Baseball, but it's day game to boot and they will be facing a very hot pitcher. Baltimore has its own Wild Card aspirations and Monday starter Dylan Bundy has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts w/ a 0.951 WHIP. The O's, who have won 9 of 11 overall, are a much stronger club at Camden Yards and they have revenge here for a sweep at the hands of the Yankees (in NY) where they were outscored 38-8 (two months ago). The Orioles had won seven in a row before splitting a four-game series w/ Toronto over the weekend. That result had to be considered a little disappointing in that they're 43-28 at home (compared to just 27-39 on the road). But today's price range certainly seems to suit them well as they are 18-8 this season as a home fave between -125 and -175, not to mention 60-31 in that same range the L3 seasons. They enter play Monday just 1.5 gms back of Minnesota for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Having Bundy on the mound for today's series opener is huge. He's been their most profitable starter this year and is coming off his 1st career shutout. Last Tuesday vs. Seattle, he threw the CG one-hitter w/ 12 strikeouts. In two starts vs. the Yankees this year, he's allowed only 5 ER in 13 IP. Both of Baltimore's wins over the weekend came in extra innings. They're now an extremely fortunate 12-2 in extra inning games this season, which normally would have me very skeptical, but consider they won yday's game despite going 1 for 17 w/ RISP! You would think more timely hitting is on the way then. That's not good news for Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who already has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts w/ a 5.02 ERA. Montgomery did beat Bundy back in June, but that was at Yankee Stadium. On the road, his team start record is only 4-8. Talking about the price range, the Yanks are only 15-28 this season when on the road and the money line is -125 or less (either way). Good opportunity here for the O's to exact some revenge and stay in the Wild Card hunt. 8* Baltimore | |||||||
09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* UCLA (7:30 ET): There is plenty of room for improvement in Westwood as HC Jim Mora is coming off a shockingly poor 4-8 SU campaign. Consider that in Mora's first four seasons on the job, the Bruins won 9, 10, 10 and 8 games. Bad luck and injuries contributed to the 2016 disappointment. They opened 3-3 SU w/ three-hard luck losses, one of them to Texas A&M. Then QB Josh Rosen was lost for the year (shoulder) and the wheels came off. It still ought to be mentioned that until the final two games, UCLA didn't lose a single game by more than 10 pts last year. People seem quick to forget that Rosen was tabbed as pro prospect coming into his freshman season and w/ nine starters back on offense, I'm expecting big things from him this year. Texas A&M seasons have followed a similar pattern under HC Kevin Sumlin. Typically things start well (started 5-0 SU or better each of the last three years) and then things fall apart once the "teeth" of the SEC schedule hits. Consider that despite those three consecutive 5-0 SU (or better) starts, the Aggies have finished unranked at the end of all of those seasons! They will come into this season as the least experienced team in their conference and there is some question as to whom will be starting at QB in this game. Two of the three options are freshman, so the Aggies pretty clearly are at a disadvantage here as it pertains to the most important position on the football field. UCLA is 17-2 SU in home openers and as alluded to earlier, this is a revenge game. They lost down in College Station last year (season opener), 31-24, but that was an overtime game that they easily could have won. They did have to score two fourth quarter TD's to tie the game, but finished w/ the edge in total yards. I think we can all agree that they were overrated coming into LY ranked #16 (were actually a slight dog at unranked A&M), but this year the situation is reversed as the Bruins come in vastly underrated. I have this team challenging USC for the Pac 12 South and while a win here won't be easy, having Rosen back is of major significance and he should lead his team to a comfortable victory Sunday night at the Rose Bowl. Lay the short number. 8* UCLA | |||||||
09-03-17 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Virginia Tech (7:30 ET): These are two "fringe" Top 25 teams facing off in the season opener, played at Landover, MD. West Virginia and Va Tech are ranked #22 and #21 respectively and in the case of the former, I feel that's solely based on last year's repuatation. While most of the Big 12 projects to be better in 2017, I feel that the Mountaineers are going to be measurably worse as it's highly unlikely they'll match LY's surprising 10-win effort where they were 4-0 SU in games decided by four points or less. I think that the kneejerk reaction here is to take the points when the public sees two teams they believe are "evenly" matched. But as we saw yday w/ Michigan-Florida and Alabama-FSU, the chalk can often be undervalued in matchups such as these and that's what I'm banking on happening again here. Lay the points. WVU brings back only eight starters from 2016 and while HC Dana Holgorsen has brought in plenty of JUCO talent, it will take time for that infusion to gel. Take the QB position for example where Will Grier steps in. You may remember Grier from Florida where he went 6-0 SU as a freshman, but was also booted off the team for PED use. However, the defense is a larger concern for me as less than 40% of the team's total tackles return from last year (just three starters) and thus I see a streak of four consecutive seasons allowing fewer PPG than the previous year coming to an end here in '17. Back to the offense, Grier will have a fairly inexperienced set of receivers to throw to. Let's also note that WVU was beaten by double digits against the three best teams they faced last year, which were Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Miami. In fact, they lost all three games by at least 17 pts. For the 1st time since Mike Vick, Va Tech will be going w/ a true frosh at starting QB. His name is Josh Jackson and big things are expected. In his first year in Blacksburg (replaced the legendary Frank Beamer), HC Justin Fuente had the Hokies averaging 35.0 PPG and he did so w/ a below average QB. The defense, still under the guidance of long-time coordinator Bud Foster, should be as stout as ever. Neutral site games haven't necessarily gone the Hokies way in recent years, but don't forget how this team ended last season - by beating Arkansas 35-24 in the Belk Bowl. Fuente is doing a great job here and with the potential for a Top 10 defense I see Va Tech opening up with a big win over a WVU squad that's primed to regress in 2017. 10* Virginia Tech | |||||||
09-03-17 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan UNDER 61 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Winnipeg/Saskatchewan (4:00 ET): Considering they've only outscored opponents by 30 pts this season, the Blue Bombers should feel a little fortunate to be 7-2 SU right now. Consider that this week's opponent, Saskatchewan, has outscored its opponents by 48 points yet is only 4-4 SU. The Bombers come into Sunday's game riding a five-game win streak w/ four of those victories coming by a TD or less and three by three points or less. Since losing to Calgary back in Week 3, 29-10, they've scored at least 33 pts in every game. As for the Rough Riders, they are off B2B very impressive perfomances, first whipping B.C. 41-8, then last week beating Edmonton (on the road) 54-31. I have zero opinion on the side here, but the total looks a little high, probably due to both teams' recent form. I'll take the Under. This annual Labour Day clash has typically gone the Riders' way the last several seasons. However, for the 1st time in eight years it won't be Darian Durant starting at QB in this game. Kevin Glenn now leads the charge and while it's been 95 total pts for Saskatchewan the last two weeks, let's not forget that this is an offense that's been held to 16 pts or fewer three times this season. Also, the defense has been feasting off turnovers the last two games (11!), something that I don't think they can count on here as Winnipeg QB Matt Nicholls has not thrown an INT in his last 178 pass atttempts. The Bombers offense does lead the league w/ an average of 34.2 PPG, but I feel the Riders should slow them down some as they are second in the league in points allowed per game w/ just 25.8. There's been a big shift in the O/U line here compared to the first meeting, an overtime game that was won by Winnipeg (43-40) in Manitoba. Six of the last eight meetings between these Western Canadian rivals have gone Over but today's game has the highest O/U line of any of them. It's also the highest O/U line in any game for both teams this season. Similar to Winnipeg, there's simply no way that Saskatchewan can continue scoring the way they have the last two games. Therefore, I look for this one to stay Under what I believe to be a pretty inflated number (TEN points higher than first meeting!). 10* Under Winnipeg/Saskatchewan | |||||||
09-03-17 | Angels -127 v. Rangers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (3:10 ET): A three-game sweep would certainly have been the desired outcome this weekend in Arlington, but the Angels will gladly accept taking two of three from the Rangers. That's the chance in front of them today as these two Wild Card contenders and AL West rivals play a rubber match at Globe Life Park. Texas took the series opener, 10-9 on Friday, while the Angels bounced back w/ a 7-4 win in 10 innings. Looking ahead, the Angels are the team here that I view as a more legit WC contender as the Rangers are due to fall short as repentance for last year's overachievement. The fact that their starter, Martin Perez, comes in w/ a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts is pretty shocking considering the skill set. I'm betting on him regressing to previous form today. As alluded to earlier, Texas is a very interesting team to evaluate over a two-year span. Last year's 95-win team was nowhere as good as its record as they outscored the opposition by only EIGHT runs. This year, their run differential is +32 (best among WC contenders), yet they remain a game below .500. I, for one, am not surprised as they should have been pegged for fewer wins this season anyway. Perez coming in on a five-start win streak is as shocking as shocking gets. While many Rangers' fans will want to laud the August that the southpaw just turned in, the fact is that he's been roughed up for six more runs three times in the last seven starts. Only half of his 26 starts this year have been quality and his ERA over his L7 starts is 5.44 (1.372 WHIP). He has a poor 1.530 WHIP for the year. The Angels' rotation has gotten healthier as the season has progressed, which is a big reason why the team finds itself in its current position, 1.5 games back of the Twins for the final Wild Card. A "sneaky" part of their success is that the bullpen posted the lowest ERA in baseball last month. Andrew Heaney gets the nod Sunday and he's coming off his best outing to date as he allowed just one run on two hits and struck out 10 batters Monday vs. Oakland. He's had one extra day of rest compared to Perez coming into today. This will be his second time seeing the Rangers and while the first didn't go that well (allowed 3 HR's), I expect he'll be a lot better this time around. Him simply handing the bullpen a lead is all we're looking for here as given the recent form of the Angels' relievers, they should be able to preserve the lead. Meanwhile, their hitters have found plenty of success in this series against the Rangers' pen including scoring five times in the final two frames last night. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
09-03-17 | Rays -161 v. White Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -161 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (2:10 ET): There a seven teams - all separated by just four games - currently competing for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays are one of them and while they should be viewed as one of the more "legit" contenders, losing to the White Sox on Saturday certainly did not help. Chicago is obviously not one of the teams still in contention, in fact, by most objective standards (record, run differential), they're the AL's worst team. So I fully anticipate the road team bouncing back Sunday afternoon. Yesterday was a case of "bad luck" for Tampa Bay as Chris Archer gave up B2B homers to start the game and then had to exit early due to injury. Those circumstances are highly unlikely to present themselves again and the Rays are just the better team here. | |||||||
09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU OVER 47 | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 55 m | Show |
8* Over BYU/LSU (9:30 ET): This game has been moved from Houston to New Orleans, which is a big edge for LSU, obviously. As for the total, I don't think it makes much of a difference as it will still be a "fast track," played indoors. These were two Under teams in 2016 w/ 10 of LSU's 12 games going that way and 10 of BYU's 13 games doing the same. But those records have created a situation where the O/U line was opened far too low here. BYU opening their season w/ a "ho-hum" 20-6 win over FCS Portland State also played a role. But how much of that was the coaching staff "holding back" remains to be seen. As for LSU, despite the departure of RB Leonard Fournette, their offense should be just fine as they have Derrius Guice to fill the void. I like the Over in this game. I do expect BYU to top last year's scoring average of 29.5 PPG when they went from a spread to a more pro-style approach (huddle before most plays). Last week was clearly not a great "trial run," but again, I have to wonder if they were "holding back" w/ this game on deck. Portland State actually finished w/ one more first down (14-13), which was downright shocking. But the Cougars did outgain the Vikings 365-220 and had several big plays in the passing game. The rushing attack looked good w/ Canada and Kavika combining for 157 yards over land. QB Mangum is just two years removed from setting school records for both passing yards and completions and should be closer to those numbers than last year's here in 2017. LSU's defense will certainly not make it easy on BYU as last year saw the Tigers allow only 15.8 PPG and the fewest number of first downs (16) per game. But this year's group has only five returning starters back and lost more than 50% of its tackles. With the BYU offense already having a game under its belt, it's an advantage for them. But LSU's own offense will be more than up to the challenge. Guice will have a big year running the ball and Danny Etling, now a senior, is back as the starting QB. It's also a veteran offensive line. The Tigers are more than capable of doing most of the necessary scoring themselves in this one and BYU should do just enough to help push this one Over the number. 8* Over BYU/LSU | |||||||
09-02-17 | A's v. Mariners -136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Seattle (9:05 ET): The Mariners came into this series on a five-game losing streak and their playoff hopes appeared to be very much on "life support." But drawing Oakland at home this weekend just might be the cure. The M's snapped said losing streak last night w/ a 3-2 and despite still being a game under .500, they're only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card in the American League (though they'd have to jump many teams to get it). But like I already said, playing the A's should at least enable them to keep pace in the chase. Oakland is a dreadful road team as their 21-45 record is the AL's worst away from home. They've now lost four in a row, all on the road, and there's little reason to suggest they'll be able to turn things around tonight or moving forward. It should be noted that the Mariners were coming off a 12-game road trip. They had an off-day going into yday and that seemed to help. So did new arrival Mike Leake, who wound up throwing seven strong innings. Tonight, we must rely upon Yovani Gallardo, who admittedly has been shaky of late. He has a 6.29 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 21 starts this season and those numbers have actually gotten WORSE lately. The team has lost each of the L3 times he's taken the mound, but again, this will clearly be the weakest opponent he's faced in some time. Case in point, the A's are the one team Gallardo has pitched well against in 2017. He has a 2.95 ERA and 3-0 TSR. The last time he won was against Oakland. He's gone 17 innings against them this year and allowed just seven runs. Oakland turns to Jharel Cotton, arguably their best starter. While he's off B2B quality starts and wins, he did allow 6 ER each of the two starts before those. His KW rate also remains unimpressive. Yes, he posted a 9-0 vs. Texas his last time out, but he had more walks than strikeouts his two starts before that. Cotton faced Gallardo back on 8.9 and was terrible as he gave up three home runs and six runs total. Again, I have to point to the fact that Seattle is competing for a playoff spot while Oakland is simply "playing out the string" at this point. The A's run differential on the road (-1.4 rpg) is one of the worst in baseball and isn't likely to reverse course in the season's final month. 10* Seattle | |||||||
09-02-17 | Arkansas State +17 v. Nebraska | Top | 36-43 | Win | 100 | 123 h 25 m | Show |
10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): Nebraska was a somewhat obvious bounce back candidate for 2016 as the previous season had seen them experience almost unfathomable amounts of bad luck (five last second losses!) and you had to figure they'd have better fortune moving forward. Bounce back is precisely what the Cornhuskers did, going 9-3 SU in the regular season before a bowl loss to Tennessee. They even started 7-0 SU before an OT loss at Wisconsin. But was Mike Riley's team really that good? Their best win was either at home vs. Maryland or at Indiana. Their only other wins over bowl teams were Minnesota and Wyoming. This year's team is far less experienced, in fact it's one of the least experienced teams in the entire country and I want no part of them laying this many points in the season opener. Arkansas State is a perennial contender out in the Sun Belt having lost just seven conference games the last five seasons. They started out 0-4 last season before rallying to win 8 of their final 9 games, including a bowl win over UCF. Obviously, they'll be cognizant of how they started last season and be looking to avoid any kind of repeat. They open w/ this game, Miami FL (home) and at SMU as three of the first four games, so again the odds won't be in their favor. But the offense figures to be a lot better than it was LY (27.3 PPG) even w/ an inexperienced offensive line. That's because virtually all the key skill players are back. The defense was very good last year, allowing just 21.5 PPG, and should be stout once again. Nebraska is also going to have to worry about the lookahead to Oregon next week. They lose a four-year starter at QB (Tommy Armstrong Jr) and his replacement Tanner Lee, a transfer from Tulane, will be w/o three of LY's top four receivers. The Nebraska defense was shredded down the stretch and deserved most of the blame for losing four of the final six games. There's a new DC in Lincoln (Bob Diaco) and the first thing he did was move from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The change in scheme will likely not be a smooth transition. Nebraska, like ASU, returns only 10 starters this year. One could make the case that among all Power 5 teams that won 9+ games last year, the Cornhuskers were the weakest. Arkansas State has 22 double digit victories in the last three seasons and while I can't see them adding to that here, or even winning straight up for that matter, the number is more than generous. 10* Arkansas State | |||||||
09-02-17 | Georgia Southern +34 v. Auburn | Top | 7-41 | Push | 0 | 123 h 45 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:30 ET): This is a terrible spot for Auburn as they have defending National Champion Clemson on deck. Therefore, the chances of a lookahead or the coaching staff simply "not wanting to show much" are both certainly on the table for this season opener. The Tigers are certainly expected to be good here in 2017 (opened #12) and will probably compete w/ LSU for second place (behind Alabama, of course) in the rugged SEC West. They have a new starting QB in Jared Stidham, a Baylor transfer that should fit HC Gus Mahlzan's offense quite well. Big things are expected from Stidham, but he's still young as is his receiving corps. Yes, Auburn should be expected to win handily, but not anywhere close to the large margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. Georgia Southern is a young team. They have just eight seniors, which would be the fewest of any team nationally. Not many are giving the Eagles much of a chance this season, even in the Sun Belt, where they're projected to finish middle of the road. But remember that this is a team that had won nine games B2B years before dropping to 5-7 SU in 2016. An issue for them last season was that they tried to pass more (led nation in rush yds in both '14 and '15) under 1st year HC Tyson Summers and after the lack of success that approach brought, it's back to the flexbone this season. This is a difficult offense to prepare for and they've played SEC teams tough each of the last two years. In 2015, they took Georgia to overtime. Last year, they stayed within 10 of Ole Miss (were +28). They will certainly not be intimidated by the pomp and circumstance of Auburn football and unlike the Tigers, there's nothing to look ahead to if you're the Eagles (New Hampshire on deck). Even in a down year, Ga Southern never lost a game by more than 24 pts last season. If they do go back to the run-heavy approach on offense, I believe that will prevent this game from getting out of hand. The Eagles went just 3-9 ATS last year and figure to be a lot better in that department in Summers' second season here. They have covered five straight against the SEC and five straight times as a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. As for Auburn, I come back to the fact that this is a lot of weight to be laying in a clear lookahead spot. Furthermore, it's not as if the Tigers haven't been immune to not playing up to their potential the last couple of seasons. Breaking in a new QB takes time and this was an offense that was shockingly held below 20 points SIX times last year, including three of the first four weeks. 8* Georgia Southern | |||||||
09-02-17 | Miami-OH v. Marshall | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 122 h 46 m | Show |
8* Marshall (6:30 ET): Both of these programs are coming off highly irregular campaigns in 2016. Miami became the first team in FBS history to start a season 0-6 and finish 6-6. The RedHawks even made a bowl game (St. Petersburg) where they played Mississippi State very tough (lost 17-16), easily covering the two-touchdown spread. As for Marshall, they are looking to bounce back from what will hopefully be the nadir of the Doc Holliday era as they went 3-9 SU, a real shocker for a team that had won 10+ games each of the three previous seasons. The way I break down this season opener is Marshall is likely to be much improved while Miami isn't going to be as fortunate as they were in '16. Getting the Thundering Herd essentially as a Pick 'em here in Huntington seems like a steal to me. Miami is the most experienced team in the MAC coming into the season and third nationally w/ 17 returning starters. Expectations probably haven't been this high in Oxford since Ben Roethlisberger left campus over a decade ago. It should be pointed out though that the RedHawks were able to take advantage of a fairly easy schedule last year, beating only two bowl teams (Eastern & Central Michigan). They avoided the top three teams in the MAC West (W Michigan, Toledo, N Illinois), which was a big deal. The schedule is going to be a lot more challenging for Chuck Martin's squad this year. They play both Notre Dame and Ohio (MAC East favorite) on the road, then there's this game. The RedHawks have lost nine consecutive road openers by an average of 31 points per game. This is a program that had just five wins TOTAL the previous three years and has never averaged more than 22.8 PPG under Martin. Meanwhile, the majority of factors are pointing UP for Marshall in '17. Their schedule was among the hardest in the country last year and they were upset three different times. But as I said earlier, the Thundering Herd don't stay down for long, in fact, they've never experienced B2B losing seasons under Holliday. They've won the home opener 10 of the past 12 years w/ both losses coming to ranked West Virginia teams. They are a former MAC rival of Miami and have beaten the RedHawks eight of the last nine times they've played, including three straight wins by 20 PPG. The big difference for Marshall this year will be on the defensive side of the ball as a ton of talent has transferred in, which should result in a unit similar to the one that allowed just 17.8 PPG in '15. As a home favorite of three points or less, the Thundering Herd have won and covered SEVEN straight times! QB Chase Litton, now in his 3rd year as the starter, bulked up in the offseason and should be ready to roll. 8* Marshall | |||||||
09-01-17 | Utah State +27.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-59 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Four of the five major conferences in College Football have been broken up into two divisions (Big 12 being the exception). Of the eight divisions, I'm probably not alone in saying Wisconsin taking the Big 10 West is the easiest call. There are simply no obvious contenders for the Badgers amongst the field and w/ no Ohio State or Penn State on the schedule (get Michigan at home), the expectation in Madison is an unbeaten regular season. But with such expectations comes added weight, often reflected in the pointspread, and that's precisely what we have here. The Badgers, as good as they may be, are not built to cover spreads as high as this one. Case in point, each of the L3 seasons has found them favored by 30 or more one time. None of those occasions saw them even score enough pts to cover the pointspread! The opponent for Wisconsin in this year's season opener is Utah State, who is coming off a very disappointing 3-9 SU finish in '16. It was easily the worst record in HC Matt Wells four years here in Logan and the 1st w/o a bowl game. So a bounce back should be expected even though only 10 starters from LY return. In games decided by a touchdown or less, the Aggies went 0-4 SU/ATS in 2016. That right there helps explain the somewhat dramatic fall in the record. Something to keep in mind is that last year they faced eight bowl teams, five of them on the road. They also weren't very experienced. This year, they have a returning starter at QB (Kent Myers) plus their leading rusher and receiver are back. Will the Aggies lose this game? Yes. But they're going to put up a fight, particularly early. The summer has not been kind to Wisconsin as not one, but TWO, linebackers have been lost for the year. One was a senior and team co-captain, Jack Cichy, which is a significant loss. Keep in mind the program is also on its third defensive coordinator in as many years. So there should be challenges early on that side of the ball. After opening up against an SEC opponent each of the last three years (LSU twice and Alabama), I think there's a real potential for a letdown from the Badgers here. Meanwhile, you know Utah State will give it their best shot Friday night. I just don't like Wisconsin in this price range. 8* Utah State | |||||||
09-01-17 | Nationals v. Brewers -137 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): For the second day in a row, the "sharp money" seems to be on the Brew Crew. It was "spot on" yday as they came back to beat the Nationals 6-3. I was a little leery considering the pitching matchup was Gio Gonzalez vs. Kyle Davies, but I'm "all in" tonight as Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson to the bump. This is a somewhat "dangerous" series for the Nats, whose standing is unlikely to change between now and the postseason. They know they're going to be NL East Champs (15 game lead!) and the likely 2nd seed, behind the Dodgers. For Milwaukee, things are far more dire. They trail the Cubs by 3.5 games in the NL Central and Colorado by 2.5 games for the 2nd Wild Card. They catch a break this weekend in that they don't have to face Max Scherzer until Sunday and avoid Stephen Strasburg entirely. They are the play here. I don't think anyone really expects the Brewers to be in the postseason, but don't tell them that. They've won four of five, beating the Dodgers (twice), Cards and Nats, collectively three of the NL's top six teams. Now they turn to their top pitcher, Nelson, who no-hit the Dodgers for five innings his last time out. He ended up allowing just two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 IP and got the win as a +182 ML dog. Overall, the team has won the last three times he's taken the mound. Despite losing to the Nats on 7.26, Nelson pitched very well against them, striking out 10 and allowing just two runs on four hits (sound familiar?). That was on the road. At home, he has better numbers and overall he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his previous seven starts. Washington had an easy time w/ Miami earlier this week, but that was at home and their rotation set up very well in that series w/ both Scherzer and Strasburg pitching. The team has played very well on the road all year long, but it's telling how the money has moved against them for a second consecutive day. Tanner Roark will get the start tonight and even though he too has looked good of late, he's not as good as Nelson. Over his L7 starts, Roark does have a 5-2 TSR, but four of those team wins have come by exactly one run. Last time out was also the first start since before Memorial Day where he didn't walk a single batter. For whatever reason, the Nationals don't seem to score as much when Roark is on the hill and that could prove costly against a team like the Brewers, who are top five in MLB when it comes to hitting home runs at home. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
09-01-17 | Navy v. Florida Atlantic +10 | Top | 42-19 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
8* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I expect FAU to be one of the more improved teams in the country this year. It starts w/ the hiring of Lane Kiffin as the new head coach. Yes, him. Kiffin inherits THE most experienced team in the entire country (17 returning starters) and they figure to be a lot better against the pointspread this year than they were last (3-8-1 ATS). As is so often the case w/ an underachieving outfit the previous year, the Owls failed to get the job done in close games in 2016. In the middle of the campaign, there was a stretch where they lost four in a row, all by six points or less. As you can tell from what this number has done since it opened (big line move towards FAU), I'm not alone in thinking improvement here and I'll gladly take the points. Last year saw a much different end than Navy is used to seeing under Ken Niumatalolo. The previous three seasons (2013-15) all saw the Midshipmen win their final two games, those of course being the annual Army game as well as a Bowl. But last year saw them lose BOTH w/ the precious 14-game win streak over their rivals coming to an end. They actually lost their final three games last year, including a 34-10 setback to Temple in the AAC Title game. So after a 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS start, it was definitely a somber finish. As per usual in Annapolis, there is not a ton of returning talent here, including only four returning starters on the offensive side of the ball. Expect early season struggles and I can't see matching LY's average of 37.9 PPG. Of course part of that is yhe last two years saw the Middies open at home against a FCS opponent and they averaged 50 PPG against Colgate and Fordham. This will be a far greater test, obviously. With Kiffin's arrival, there will obviously be much fanfare. I thought FAU was the perfect landing spot for him as he'll be "off the radar" nationally, though there's the potential for a rivalry to start brewing with Florida International, who also welcomes in a fmr NFL HC (Butch Davis). Kiffin has Kendall Briles (Baylor) as his OC and I expect the Owls to be pretty prolific on that side of the ball. Keep in mind last year saw them average nearly 400 YPG, the most in program history. It starts w/ a very experienced O-line (82 career starts). Kiffin is keeping his starting QB a secret (smart), which should throw off the Navy defense early. A ton of transfers have been brought in here, which means an influx of talent on both sides of the ball. The defense should also be a lot better in 2017. Kiffin is not going to want to be embarrassed in his 1st home game (on national TV, no less - game is on ESPNU). I expect a close game throughout. 8* Florida Atlantic | |||||||
09-01-17 | Reds +1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
6* Run Line Cincinnati (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds +1.5. For all intents and purposes, the Pittsburgh Pirates' season came to an end earlier this week in Chicago. A three-game bludgeoning at the hands of the Cubs (lost all three games by a combined score of 27-5) was not lost on the front office as they let reliever Juan Nicasio clear waivers and go to Philadelphia, a clear sign that the organization has given up on making the playoffs. Now the Reds have been out of contention for months, but they always seem to give the Bucs trouble (5-1 here in Pittsburgh this season!) plus we've got an immediate revenge spot w/ tonight's starting pitching matchup. Cincy does no worse than a one-run loss here. While Pittsburgh had Thursday off, the Reds beat the Mets 7-2 at home in an afternoon game. I had them in a 14-4 win Tuesday as well. The win yday gave them a winning month (15-14) for the 1st time in over a year! Pitching is usually not this team's strong suit, but they held the Mets to no home runs for the series, which is impressive considering NY leads the NL in home runs w/ 193. Tonight, the Reds will have an impressive young arm out on the mound, that belonging to Luis Castillo, who has posted exceptional numbers of late despite a lack of real succes. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven consecutive starts, a stretch in which his ERA and WHIP are 2.76 and 1.039 respectively. Lately, he's been even better w/ a 1.59 ERA and 0.824 WHIP his L3 starts. He was a hard-luck loser last week vs. the Pirates as he allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits in 7 IP. Tonight marks a second straight crack at beating Gerritt Cole and the last time showed he's more than capable of getting the job done. Last Saturday saw Cole and the Pirates beat Castillo and the Reds 1-0. The one run came on a solo HR from Cole. (Like I said, it was a hard-luck loss!). However, while Cole tossed seven shutout innings, performances such as that are not commonplace for him against this particular opponent. In fact, Cole had NEVER beaten the Reds previously as he was 0-6 against them in nine starts. Therefore, what are the chances he beats them twice in a row, facing the same starting pitcher no less? I'd say "not good." Also, Cole has not been sharp at home lately w/ a 5.28 ERA his L5 starts at PNC Park. He last won a game here on June 13th. 6* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
09-01-17 | Charlotte +13.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (6:00 ET): Eastern Michigan enjoyed a breakout 2017 season, going from 1-11 (SU) in '15 to 7-6 SU and their first bowl appearance since 1987! (Lost to Old Dominion, 24-20, in Bahamas Bowl). As a result, expectations are now at an all-time high in the Chris Creighton era. That's reflected by the pointspread for this season opener, which is now in highly unfamiliar territory for this regime. Creighton won just three games - total - his first two years here in Ypsilanti. During that time, his Eagles were favored only two times: once against a FCS team (Morgan St) in the '14 season opener (won only 31-28) and then by a single point against Army the following year (and they lost 58-36). Last year, they were favored three times. The first was again against a FCS opponent (Miss Valley State). I'll get to the second in a moment. The third and final time saw them actually favored by a TD over a FBS opponent for the 1st time under Creighton and they promptly lost outright, 28-15 to Miami (OH). This is just too many points for this program to be laying. The second time EMU was favored last year was against their opponent here, by three on the road. The Eagles won 37-19 despite the fact that total yardage was virtually identical (357-356) and Charlotte had six more fist downs. Consider that it was the first time going back to 2005 that the Eagles were listed as a road favorite. They won in large part because of a +2 turnover margin. While that game wasn't one of 'em, Eastern Michigan won a lot of close games last year, going 5-1 SU in those decided by 7 pts or less before the Bahamas Bowl loss. Simply put, despite 16 returning starters, I'm not nearly as high on this team as the faithful in Ypsilanti will be, as they came off as more "lucky" than "good" in '16. Charlotte has only been playing football for four seasons and has yet to record more than five wins in any of them. This will be the third year as a FBS program and despite the loss to EMU LY, they did double their number of total wins from '15 (2 to 4). They won three times as a DD road dog in '16, winning at Florida Atlantic, Marshall and Southern Miss. They were a 4-5 (SU) team before close losses to Rice and Middle Tennessee at home. This will be a much easier game than last year's season opener (at Louisville). While an outright win here would surprise me some, I expect the 49ers to be far more competitive on the scoreboard here than they were last year vs. EMU. This number is at three points too high. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
08-31-17 | Dolphins +3 v. Vikings | Top | 30-9 | Win | 105 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:30 ET): The Dolphins were a playoff team in 2016 and almost certainly will NOT be one in 2017. Even before the loss of QB Ryan Tannehill, the Fish figured to regress in a major way due to the simple fact that they're highly unlikely to be as lucky as they were last season. This is a team that managed to go 8-2 SU in close games (those decided by 7 pts or less) last season and those two losses came in the first two weeks. Despite finishing 10-6 SU, they were actually outscored and that doesn't even include them getting exposed (badly!) in a 30-12 playoff loss to the Steelers. An easy schedule certainly helped; outside of New England (whom they have to play twice), they faced only two other playoff teams in 2016. But regardless of all of the above, I'm on them in this preseason finale as they're a good value getting points against the Vikings. Minnesota was a franchise on the rise two years ago, but a serious injury to Teddy Bridgewater has derailed all progress. Sam Bradford is nothing more than a stopgap until Bridgewater (missed all of last year) can finally return. Tonight is a terrible spot for the Vikings as they're laying points in meaningless game and doing so on a very short week. They just played Sunday when they rallied to beat San Francisco 32-31 w/ two touchdowns in the final six minutes. They won on a two-point conversion on the game's final play. Despite that, they were outgained in the contest (gave up 431 yards!) and, in fact, have been outgained in all three preseason games. They might be 2-1 SU in the preseason, they're actually being outgained by 70 yards per game! Miami has had far more time to get ready for this game as they last played exactly one week ago. They lost 38-31 to Philadelphia, giving up 400+ yards themselves, but four turnovers are what really hurt. One of them was an INT return for a TD, which wound up being the difference in the ballgame. The good news is that Cutler completed five passes for 105 yards. He won't play here obviously, but neither will any of the Vikings regulars. I think the fact that Minnesota has been outgained in every preseason game thus far is very key as is the short week they're working on here. 8* Miami | |||||||
08-31-17 | TULSA v. OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 70 | Top | 24-59 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State (7:30 ET): Last year, BOTH of these teams have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Only one returns the majority of it in 2017. That would be Oklahoma State, who for the past seven seasons has averaged 38.6 PPG (LY's average) or more SIX times. With the prolific QB-WR combo of Mason Rudolph and James Washington returning, expectations are through the roof this year in Stillwater w/ the faithful thinking Big XII Championship. However, it is Tulsa that I'm worried about here. The Golden Hurricane averaged 42.5 PPG in a breakout 2016 that saw them win 10 games. They were the first team in FBS history to have a 3,000+ yard passer, two 1,000+ yd rushers and two 1,000 yd receivers. But all but one of those players was lost to graduation. As a result, expect a massive drop off on that side of the ball for the Golden Hurricane here in '17. Tulsa topped 40 pts in all but three games last season and scored at least 31 in all but one. That one time, of course, happened to be their lone visit to a Power 5 school. They lost 48-3 at Ohio State w/ just 188 total yds gained. I'm not saying this OSU will be able to limit them to such a degree, but it is worth noting that the Pokes did allow just 26.5 PPG a year ago (three-year low) against far tougher competition than they'll see here. As of press time, Tulsa HC Philip Montgomery has yet to decided on a starting QB. It will be one of two inexperienced underclassmen - sophomore Chad President or freshman Luke Skipper. Whomever gets the nod (both might play), I expect will struggle mightily. The key to this Under play then would be keeping Oklahoma State's offense in relative check. If the Cowboys were to simply "hit" LY's scoring average, then they'd have to allow 30+ pts for this one to go Over. I cannot see Tulsa scoring 30 points here. So, let's say the Golden Hurricane drops down to somewhere between 21 and 24 pts (seems realistica). It would take roughly 50 from the OSU side to get this one Over. Are the Pokes capable of such an output? Yes, but I don't see it. Consider they didn't score 50 against any FBS opponent last season. They were remarkably consistent, scoring between 38 and 49 pts in eight of their 10 wins. The two exceptions were scoring 31 against TCU (allowed only 6) and 61 (against a FCS program, SE Louisiana). I expect a pretty "average" day offensively from OSU here while Tulsa should slip dramatically compared to last year. Most OSU totals last year were lower than this one. There were three exceptions and two of those stayed Under. 8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State | |||||||
08-31-17 | Rams v. Packers OVER 38 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
10* Over Rams/Packers (7:00 ET): Over the last two preseasons, the Packers have stayed Under the total in every game (7). No other team can claim this. Therefore, despite decreasing point totals through the three games this year, the odds of an Over cashing grow w/ each passing week. The fact that the Pack have averaged just a "hair" over 21 PPG this preseason should be of no concern to fans as Aaron Rodgers has played only three series and attempted just 13 passes. Rodgers obviously won't be on the field here, but neither will the Rams' 1st team defense, which is just as important. With nothing but backups taking the field Thursday, I expect little scheming and little concern from the respective coaching staffs. Take the Over. The Packers scored only 17 points last week, but they were facing a Denver defense that has been tops in the league each of the last two seasons. Furthermore, they managed 10 points against the Broncos' first-teamers. The offense has been remarkably consistent in the three games, gaining between 261 and 266 total yds every time. That may not sound like a lot, and it isn't, but I'll still call for them to achieve their preseason high in this game. Note that the Rams gave up three early TD passes to Philip Rivers last week. Since Rogers won't play, let's look at the other Green Bay QB's. Brett Hundley knows the system and completed 20 of 30 pass attempts last week. I can see Joe Callahan and Taysom Hill getting the majority of the reps in this one and that's fine. Callahan made the roster last year due to a strong preseason showing and may need another here to stick w/ the team. That's because Hill is pushing him. Hill led a 75-yard TD drive in the second game (neither he nor Callahan played last week) and can run, making him dangerous against backups. The Rams offense was atrocious last season as #1 overall DC Jared Goff turned in a historically bad campaign, even by rookie standards. Most of the attention in LA is being paid to the Aaron Donald holdout right now. However, keep an eye on backup QB Sean Mannion, who threw for 219 yards last week. The Rams had five scoring drives last week, but the problem was that the four that went 7+ plays all ended in field goals. The exception was a Mannion-led, 90 yard TD drive. Behind Mannion is Dan Orlovsky, somehow still employed, but it is worth noting he's a former starter in this league, even if that was for some atrocious Lions teams. This is a low number and given the Packers recent history in preseason games, I'd say they are "due" for an Over. 10* Over Rams/Packers | |||||||
08-31-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. The first two games of this three-game set up beautifully for the host Twins. They had their top two pitchers (Santana, Berrios) on the mound, both in immediate revenge spots against inferior pitchers that happened to beat them their respective last times out. The market heavily favored Minnesota in both games and they delivered accordingly w/ wins of 6-4 and 11-1. However, the situation is a bit different this afternoon as the archaic Bartolo Colon toes the rubber. Questions still remain w/ this Twins club as despite a 69-63 record (currently hold 2nd Wild Card in AL), they've been outscored this season and they're a losing proposition at home. I expect the White Sox to be far more competitive today and do no worse than a one-run defeat. While it certainly was NOT the case either of the past two days, the pitching matchup does seem to be in Chicago's favor today. Colon has not had a great year by any objective measure as he comes in sporting a 6.35 ERA and 1.634 WHIP in 21 starts. He did just win at Toronto (as a +180 ML dog) last Friday by allowing just one run, on a solo HR, in 6 2/3 IP. But he also got away w/ allowing nine hits overall and he had ZERO strikeouts! Note that in his two previous starts, Colon had allowed a total of SIX home runs. Note that his numbers here at home do not improve and his WHIP over his L3 starts is right in line w/ what it is for the season. I would not expect Colon to get the same kind of run support Berrios did yday. In fact, this stretch that's seen Minnesota scored 6+ times in four consecutive games is highly irregular for them. Also, they're only 22-29 in day games this season as they allow 5.8 rpg. Chicago goes w/ Miguel Gonzalez. While he has a TSR identical to that of Colon (9-12), the ERA and WHIP are both slightly better thanks to a strong August. He's posted four quality starts in a row (1.29 ERA), all as an underdog, and the team has won three times! (The lone exception came when he was +300 at the Dodgers. Gonzalez has allowed a total of just four runs in 28 IP and last time out saw him post his best KW rate in any start this season (9-0). Coming into this series, the White Sox had won 7 of 11 and I think the "added insurance" (+1.5) is the prudent move here as the Twins are simply not as good as they've looked the past two days. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) | |||||||
08-30-17 | Rays v. Royals -138 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals didn't just snap a five-game losing skid last night (won 6-2), they also ended an embarrassing stretch of baseball that had seen them get shut out FOUR consecutive times and outscored 32-0! They'd actually gone 45 straight innings w/o cross the plate! I don't think for a second that they're anywhere near as bad as they played during that stretch, thus you can look for the bounce back to continue tonight in the series finale w/ TB. Kansas City has taken a very "up and down" path en route to essentially being a .500 team this year. After ending July on a 10-2 run, they're just 10-17 here in August. Remember, they got off to a terrible start to the season before fighting their way back into contention. There's been a huge steam move here that I happen to agree with wholeheartedly. Having Jason Vargas on the hill should certainly help the home team's chances tonight. Though he didn't really pitch well in either of his last two starts (both against Cleveland), the offense was also shut out both times, so it really didn't matter. Vargas still comes in sporting a 16-9 team start record, making him the most profitable starter in the Royals rotation in 2017. Earlier this year, he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Rays and that was on the road. In three of his five Augusts starts, the Royals have failed to score a single run. If they can finally support him properly, I have little doubt that Vargas will hold up his "end of the bargain." Tampa Bay is just 15-21 this year when facing a left-handed starter. Though both of these teams are just below .500, they remain very much alive in the wide open AL Wild Card race which sees seven teams separated by just 3.5 games. Baseball is being played in Tampa right now (Texas-Houston series due to Hurricane Harvey), just not by the Rays. That's too bad for TB starter Jake Odorizzi as he desperately needs to be picked up after B2B poor showings. For the 1st time in his career, Odorizzi lasted less than four innings in B2B starts and as a result he comes in w/ a 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP his L3. He's allowed a HR in 20 of his 22 starts this season and the Royals have had his number through the years as well. In six career starts, Odorizzi is 1-4 against KC w/ a 4.65 ERA. He was roughed up in his lone start here at Kauffman Stadium, though that came all the way back in 2014. Earlier this season, he came out on the losing end of that Vargas' gem and that's too bad because he actually pitched well. Kansas City is long overdue for some sort of offensive onslaught and I see them taking tonight's rubber match. 10* Kansas City | |||||||
08-30-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -115 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:10 ET): Oddsmakers initially installed Detroit as the slight favorite here (w/ Justin Verlander on the hill), but the public had none of it and nor do I. Last night, I was on the Rockies as they rolled to an easy 7-3 win here. After initially jumping out to a 3-0 lead, they did have to come back w/ a four-run seventh to get the win. Colorado did lose the opener Monday, but as mentioned in yday's analysis, they actually outhit the Tigers in that game. The home team's problem - at least recently - has been a failure to get hits w/ RISP. While that issue seemed to persist last night (went 2 for 6), it's a stat where teams almost always regress/progress to the mean. So expect more timely hitting moving forward. As for the Tigers, you'd expect their offense to get a boost from playing at Coors Field, but remember they lose the DH from the batting order in this series plus Miguel Cabrera (back) is also out. Verlander has been sharp in B2B outings and as a result has a 0.935 WHIP his L3 starts. But the Tigers are not a good road team (26-42 overall), especially when Verlander is on the hill. Even when he pitches relatively well away from Comerica Park, like his last time out, the team still finds a way to lose. Last Friday saw the Tigers lose 3-2 at Chicago (White Sox), dropping Verlander's TSR away from home to a lousy 3-11 this season. He has a 5.02 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in those 14 starts. This hitter-friendly environment seems like one of the LEAST likely places for Verlander to turn around his road woes. The Tigers have been outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year, tied for the third worst run differential in all of MLB (only Oakland and San Diego are worse). Remember that this is one of only three American League teams not in playoff contention. Like I said earlier, the Detroit offense has really not benefited from the "Coors Effect," scoring just seven runs in the two games. Colorado, on the other hand, is the highest scoring home team in all of baseball and is 31-17 in day games (5.6 rpg scored) to boot. Chad Bettis makes his 4th start of the year here and while he's actually regressed with each passing start, note that the last time out was the second time he'd faced Atlanta in a 12-day span and also his 1st road start of '17. In two starts here at Coors Field, his ERA is 1.93. The Tigers have won just three of their previous 18 road series and I don't see them winning this one. It's an important game for the Rockies as they try and hold onto the second Wild Card in the N.L. 8* Colorado | |||||||
08-29-17 | A's v. Angels -153 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
intended to be a FREE play! | |||||||
08-29-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
incorrectly entered....NOT a play! | |||||||
08-29-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -141 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Not that they needed it after the Mayweather-McGregor fight Saturday night, but the sportsbooks reaped yet another windfall last night w/ the Rockies losing 4-3 to the Tigers. It was easily the biggest decision at most books considering the home team had been bet up from the opening number of -160 to somewhere north of -200, depending on your shop. In an atypical occurrence, there was no scoring at Coors Field after the third inning last night. Detroit struck for two runs in both the 1st and 3rd innings while all of Colorado's scoring came in the 2nd. The Rockies did outhit the Tigers for the game, 13-9, but sadly were 1 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 11 men on base. They're now down to a .223 batting average w/ RISP this month. Still the highest scoring home team (6.1 rpg) in the majors, I see those struggles correcting themselves sooner rather than later and will call for a reversal of fortune tonight for the team desperately fighting for its playoff life. At one point, the Rockies making the playoffs was considered a formality. Not anymore. The Dodgers obviously blew by them long ago and now they're holding onto a rather precarious three game lead for the final Wild Card spot. Remember that this is a franchise that has made the playoffs only three times in its history and never won the NL West. But this year's team has improved in several key areas, most notably run suppression as they're at least middle of the road in most pitching metrics. German Marquez goes tonight and he's looking to follow up a quality start against another American League opponent (KC) where the only two runs allowed both came on solo homers. Remember that the Tigers are w/o the DH in the batting order for this series and Miguel Cabrera left last night's game w/ some lower back tightness. Those absences will certainly help Marquez, who already has an 8-2 team start record at Coors Field this season and a 3.12 ERA when pitching here since May 10th. Detroit is one of four AL teams out of contention, so they've really got nothing to play for from here on out. They had not been playing well coming into this series and have allowed an average of 6.4 runs per game over the L7 days w/ opponents batting .310. Those numbers don't figure to improve this week at hitter-friendly Coors Field, especially w/ the struggling Michael Fulmer on the bump. Fulmer is 0-5 w/ a 5.97 ERA his L6 starts and the Tigers were lucky to win the last one as he allowed five runs in six innings. The offense scored 10 runs that day, but has totaled only 13 in the four games since and like I said earlier, being w/o the DH (and possibly Cabrera) potentially cripples them even in the hitter-friendly environment. Give me the Rockies in this one. 8* Colorado | |||||||
08-29-17 | Mets v. Reds -157 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Over the weekend, I showed that I'm not afraid to offer a rare recommendation on a bad team when I played Oakland over Texas. I'm going to do the same thing here today, this time in the National League, on Cincinnati. In yday's analysis, I mentioned that it is the Phillies who have been ML favorites the fewest number of times this year in the Senior Circuit. Well, the Reds aren't too far ahead of the Phillies as tonight marks just the 39th time (in 132 games) that they have been the ML favorite. But it's justified as they're not only at home, but playing a Mets team w/ little to play for, starting a pitcher that is questionable at best. The Mets have lost 11 of 15 overall and are giving up more than five runs per game on the road this year. Over the weekend, the Mets were able to split a four-game series w/ the first place Nationals. They were fortunate to have Monday off seeing as they played a doubleheader Sunday. But they are only 4-7 coming off an off-day this year and as alluded to earlier, starter Chris Flexen should not exactly have Mets' fans "feeling easy" heading into this series opener. While the Mets have won four of Flexen's six starts so far, that record should be considered fortunate at best given the pitcher's 5.79 ERA and 1.929 WHIP. On the road, Flexen has been particularly brutal w/ an 8.18 ERA and 2.545 WHIP (three starts). Control has been a primary concern w/ him as he's walked at least three batters in five of his six starts, including exactly four in each of the previous three. 20 walks in 28 IP is not good. Nor is the Mets' bullpen on the road (5.44 ERA, 1.570 WHIP). As per usual, I expect the Mets to give up plenty of runs on the road tonight. It would seem as if the sharp money agrees w/ my assessment of this matchup as the Reds have been bet up pretty significantly, which is something you obviously don't see all that often. They do average 5.0 rpg here at home where they have a respectable 31-35 record. Sal Romano will get the start here and he's looking to make it three straight wins and quality outings after allowing just three runs total in a pair of seven inning efforts. Last time out, he beat the Cubs as a +155 ML dog! The Mets have shockingly beaten the Reds 14 consecutive times, but this is actually the first time they've met in 2017 and this Mets team is nowhere near as good as past editions. Tonight will be the Reds' time to shine, something I haven't said all that often this season. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
08-28-17 | A's v. Angels -167 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Oakland just did the Angels (and a number of other teams) a big favor by sweeping the Rangers over the weekend. A crowded field of eight teams fighting for that 2nd Wild Card in the American League are separated by just six games and the Angels (along w/ Seattle) are one of the two teams closest to catching the Twins, just 1.5 games back. Here at home, I expect the Halos to pay the A's back w/ scorn. Relegated simply to spoiler, Oakland is not one of the eight teams competing for that final playoff berth and expecting them to carry over the momentum from the weekend seems optimistic at best. When these AL West rivals met earlier this month, the A's were able to take two of three here in LA. But a repeat of that seems unlikely given Oakland's terrible resume on the road as they're 21-41 and getting outscored by 1.3 runs per game. Oakland doesn't find itself on this kind of win streak often and they are just 4-8 when off three consecutive wins this season. Rookie Daniel Gossett will toe the rubber tonight, making his 2nd start since being recalled from Triple A. Last time out, things didn't go very well as he allowed five runs in five innings against Baltimore. The A's lost 8-7 in 12 innings. Overall, the team is just 4-7 when Gossett starts this year as his ERA is 5.49 and his WHIP is 1.441. He's 0-3 vs. the division w/ a 5.63 ERA. He probably shouldn't expect much run support either as the A's average just 3.9 rpg on the road. This just seems like a great spot to fade a last place team as they're coming off a rare sweep. As for the Angels, it's been a disappointing start to the homestand. They've gone 2-5 against the Rangers and Astros, including a tough 7-5 loss yday. But yday also marked the first time they were at "plus money" (dog) on the ML this homestand, which tells me the market is really starting to respect them, especially considering they were slight favorites to beat the Astros twice. Andrew Heaney pitches today and while his TSR is 0-2 w/ SEVEN home runs allowed, I'm projecting his best start to date comes tonight. He does have a good KW ratio (9-0) and has been rather efficient in terms of the pitch count as well. I think the home run ball is just "one of those things" and can be corrected. If the Angels are to make the postseason (and I give them a great shot), this is a series they should probably sweep. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-28-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -155 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. While theoretically this is a battle of NL East also-rans, things have played out in extraordinarily one-sided fashion between the Braves and Phillies in 2017. Philadelphia has taken 11 of the 13 head to head meetings, including all six since the All-Star Break, and they're a perfect 7-0 vs. Atlanta here at home. On paper, this makes little sense. Philly has the worst record in baseball (48-81) and is 9.5 games back of the Braves in the standings. The market has taken notice though and this will be the 1st time this year that the Phillies are substantial ML favorites to beat the Braves. That opens up an opportunity to play the run line at a decent price and getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with against the team w/ the worst record in baseball is not only rare, but seems like a great value to boot! Note no team has played more one-run games this year than have the Phils (47). Four of those six wins over Atlanta since the Break have come by a one-run margin. The Phillies are probably feeling confident for a number of reasons coming into this series. One, they won yday, 6-3 over the Cubs. Two, is the head to head dominance of the Braves that we already spoke of. Three, they have Aaron Nola (their best pitcher) on the hill tonight. However, Nola has been rocked in B2B outings, giving up 12 runs in 11 1/3 IP. Prior to that, he'd been in fine form, so Phillies' fans are probably thinking "bounce back," especially with the way the team has handled Atlanta this year. But Nola has faced the Braves only one time in 2017. Furthermore, this really isn't a good price to be taking the Phillies. Not only have they been favored a NL low 29 times this season (only White Sox have been favored fewer times on the ML this yr), but they are likely to close higher on the ML here than for any other game this season. The previous high of -150 was set back on 7.8 w/ Nola on the mound facing San Diego. The Phillies lost that game 2-1. Note that the Phillies are a stunning 6-0 in one-run games vs. Atlanta this year. In all other one-run games, their record is 10-31! Atlanta was shut out yday, 3-0 by the Rockies. But that was after taking the opener of that series and losing the second game ... by only one run. Starter Lucas Sims joined the starting rotation this month and is coming off his best outing to date, one where he tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball against Seattle. Opponents have yet to record a single hit w/ RISP against him (0 for 11). Perhaps most impressive about the Braves is that they are 6-1 this year immediately following a shutout loss. Philly did take two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, but remember they lost the middle game by a score of 17-2. They are unworthy of this price range and Atlanta sure seems "due" to beat them at least once here. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) | |||||||
08-27-17 | Bengals v. Redskins -3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
8* Washington (4:30 ET): The Redskins have opened the preseason at 0-2 SU/ATS, but after a somewhat disastrous opener at Baltimore (lost 23-3), they looked a lot better last week at home vs. Green Bay. They actually outgained the Pack 335-266, but gave up the GW TD w/ 6:16 to go when the backups were all in. Now I'm well aware that QB Kirk Cousins failed to impress. He and the 'Skins' first-teamers actually played the entire first half, yet didn't produce a touchdown until the sixth drive when they were facing the Packers' backups. Heck, they didn't even gain a single first down until the final play of the 1st quarter! As a result, I expect a very motivated team on Sunday. Cincinnati (1-1) has been outgained in both games so far and looked suspect on defense. I'm laying the points. Consider that the Redskins were actually bet to the role of favorite at Baltimore for the 1st preseason game! By comparison, this line offers tremendous value as they're at home. It would appear as if the consensus prognostication for this team is not all that rosy in 2017, but I think they're not bad (should finish at or around .500). You can debate Cousins' fair market value all you want, but he's a good QB by 2017 standards. The Redskins actually had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago as only the Falcons and Saints gained more yards. The team was actually tied for second in YPP (yards per play) differential! Starters are again expected to play the entire first half (at least) here and with this being the final chance to impress the home fans before the regular season, I look for Washington to score a lot more points Sunday. It also helps that they're facing a Cincinnati defense that has looked suspect so far in the preseason. That they gave up only 12 points in the opener to Tampa Bay is misleading as the Bucs' first team offense had their way w/ them. Last week, they gave up 30 points to Kansas City, allowing them to score on each of the first five drives. Three different Chiefs' QB's threw touchdown passes against what remains a short-handed Bengals stop unit. Meanwhile, the Cincy offense could only manage four field goals and no touchdowns. Their only two TD's scored this preseason both came in the third quarter of the first game w/ Jeff Driskel under center. In many ways, this franchise finds itself at a crossroads entering 2017 as they are coming off a 6-9-1 season after making the playoffs each of the previous four years. 8* Washington | |||||||
08-27-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -183 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Giants blew what was pretty clearly their best shot at taking a game in this weekend series by losing 2-1 yesterday w/ Madison Bumgarner starting. As per usual, Bumgarner did his job (allowed just five hits in 7 IP) and as per usual, the Giants offense failed to support him. Now MadBum did allow the two solo home runs, but limiting the scoring to that is pretty impressive when you consider the D'backs are tied for #3 in scoring at home w/ 5.5 runs per game. That's a big reason why the team has gone 41-23 at Chase Field this season, the second best home record in all of baseball (trailing only the Dodgers). With Chris Stratton on the hill today, the Giants are unlikely to limit the D'backs offense in the manner they did yday and it also needs to be pointed out that at 21-44 (-22.0 units!), they are one of MLB's worst road teams. Arizona has now won five of six, including three consecutive games by one-run. They've been able to put together that win streak in spite of some paltry offensive numbers, at least compared to their usual standard. I expect the offense to break out today, but it may not even have to considering Patrick Corbin is on the hill. Over his L3 starts, Corbin has flat out been lights out w/ a 0.39 ERA and 0.728 WHIP! He's allowed just 1 run in 23 1/3 IP and most important of all is that the D'backs won all three times. Corbin does have an 0-2 TSR vs. the Giants this year, surprising given the opponent's overall level of ineptitude this season. But the last time he faced them, it was a hard luck loss as Corbin was charged w/ three unearned runs, spoiling a 10 K (season-high) performance. That was at AT&T Park and I like his chances for success even more here at home as the team is 9-1 this year as a ML home favorite of -175 to -250. No team has lost more at the betting window this year than have the Giants. They are down 31.7 units or seven more than the second worst team. Simply put, oddsmakers are not pricing this team as they should, which is as one of the worst teams in baseball. They are, after all, 27 games below .500. As a road underdog of +125 or higher, they are 7-19 this season dropping them to 27-57 in that range since 2015. They're being outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road this year and are 18-28 in day games while averaging just 3.5 rpg. None of this is good news for starter Chris Stratton, who like Corbin has an impressive 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Stratton hasn't allowed a single run in his last 12 2/3 IP, but the fact he finished his last start w/ only one strikeout is a somewhat ominous sign. I look for the D'backs to complete the sweep here as they continue to try and hold onto home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game. 8* Arizona | |||||||
08-27-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
10* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox have been humiliated in B2B losses to the Orioles this weekend, getting outscored. Going back to the final game of the Cleveland series, they've actually been outscored 36-9 over the L3 games! But this small sample size is hardly indicative of the way they've played all season. In fact, prior to the current three-game losing skid, they'd outscored their opponents by 111 runs over the course of the season. However, only once this year have they lost four consecutive games and that was out on the West Coast. They have not been swept in a series of three or more games here at Fenway at any time this season. The last two days have been real "head-scratchers" in my book as Baltimore is still only 25-39 on the road. Clearly, I'm calling for Boston to come through here and avoid the sweep. Doug Fister will start here for the Red Sox and he happens to be coming off his finest performance of 2017. After allowing a leadoff HR, he didn't allow another hit Tuesday in Cleveland and went the distance. Will he duplicate that performance here? Not sure about that, but he probably doesn't have to. Boston is 40-24 at home this year and averaging 5.1 runs in day games. Again, I feel that the last two days have been abberrations. By any rational and objective measure, the Red Sox are the far better ballclub here. They are 7-5 this season following a game in which they had four or fewer hits. This is a top 10 offense in runs scored, batting average and OBP. I can't see them being shut down for a third straight day by a Baltimore pitching staff that is subpar to say the least. I would have liked to see Chris Tillman in this spot for the O's, but it will be Wade Miley instead. That's okay though as Miley has a 4.82 ERA in his career at Fenway. Most of that came as a member of the 2015 Red Sox, but as the enemy, things have gone worse for him. In two starts against Boston as the visitor, his ERA has jumped to 7.56. Overall, this has not been a good year for Miley, who has a 5.11 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in 26 starts. Out of those 26 starts, only SEVEN have been quality. He's walked at least three batters in every start in August. Keep in mind that despite ranking seventh in MLB in runs scored, the Orioles have been outscored this year by 24 runs. That speaks to how suspect this pitching staff has been and I just can't see a continuation of the last two days. 10* Boston | |||||||
08-26-17 | Conor McGregor v. Floyd Mayweather Jr | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
8* Floyd Mayweather (11:00 ET): Note that the bet here is for Mayweather to win inside of 12 rounds. This is one where I had to step in as a result of the ridiculous amt of public betting on the underdog McGregor. Yes, we're all constantly looking for that big "payday," but you might have had a better shot buying a bunch of Powerball tickets rather than firing on Conor McGregor here. This is a boxing match. Floyd Mayweather is arguably one of the greatest fighters in the history of that particular sport, certainly the best of his generation. McGregor has never boxed professionally in his career. He will not be able to employ any MMA tactics here. Rather, he's going to have to stand and attempt to trade punches w/ Mayweather. He doesn't stand a chance. I have Mayweather finishing McGregor inside of the 12 rounds, which is a far better value as opposed to simply taking him to win. Reports are that McGregor's punching hardly would qualify him as a boxer. Yes, he's an accomplished mixed martial artist, but that's a totally different "game." I said earlier that Mayweather is the best of his generation and possibly all-time. You can't even say that about McGregor in MMA. He's an excellent hype man, the best ever possibly, but that's not going to help him once he gets in the ring. McGregor has lost three times in the Octagon, most recently to Nate Diaz in March of last year. Mayweather has never lost a boxing match in his career. The idea he would lose to a novice, even at 41 years of age, is just ludicrous. Would you bet on a football team if Michael Jordan was the quarterback? I hope not. What I expect to see here is McGregor start disciplined, get frustrated, and then go swinging for the fences. That's not a winning strategy and will play right into the hands of Mayweather, who will be far more accurate here. Shockingly, McGregor is being priced lower than some of Mayweather's recent boxing opponents. That's ludicrous. Yes, his critics will point out that it's been a while since Floyd knocked out an opponent. But a KO isn't requred for a stoppage here, remember. He can simply pound McGregor into oblivion causing the referee to step in. That seems like a logical conclusion to a fight that I can't see going more than 10 rounds. With no kicking, no takedowns and no submissions, McGregor has no chance. 8* Floyd Mayweather | |||||||
08-26-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -171 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): I'm kind of scratching my head over why the Dodgers would be opened so low on the money line here. Sure, this will be the first time starting for Ross Stripling, but he'll obviously be backed by the best team in baseball. Fresh off beating Milwaukee on Friday, 3-1, the Dodgers are now an almost unfathomable 91-36 w/ a +223 run differential. They are well on their way to delivering one of, if not THE, great regular seasons in MLB history. At home, they've outscored opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game thanks in large part to being - easily - #1 in run suppression (allow only 3.1 rpg here at Chavez Ravine). Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been trending in the wrong direction for some time now. They are just 14-22 their L36 games and I don't think anyone believes they're going to win the NL Central. No need to "outthink the room" on this one. We should not expect Stripling to pitch long tonight. After all, he just pitched Monday (in relief) and recorded the three FINAL outs in a 6-5 win over Pittsburgh. It was the 2nd save of the season for Stripling, who typically works out of the bullpen. The last 13 times he has been used, he has not thrown more than 36 pitches. As already mentioned, this is his first time starting in '17. But it's not the first time he's started in his young career. Last year, as a rookie, he made 14 starts. Aiding his cause here is the fact he'll be facing a Brewers lineup which is batting a collective .227 over its L7 games. The Brew Crew have scored just seven runs total their last four games. When called upon, the Dodgers' bullpen is something we can count on. They've posted a 0.950 WHIP at home over the course of the entire season. Milwaukee turns to Zach Davies in this spot. He is off B2B quality efforts, though he was a hard luck loser (to San Francisco) his last time out. Davies is one of the select few that can claim to hold a win over the Dodgers this year as he threw six scoreless innings against them back on June 4th. But that performance came at home. Here at home, the Dodgers are a preposterous 52-14, including 27-6 when priced between -175 and -250. Three starts ago, Davies did get rocked for seven runs by the Twins. While he does have some nice wins this season, including the one over the Dodgers, tonight is the tallest order he will have faced all season. The Dodgers are just too good to pass up when priced "this low." 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
08-26-17 | Toronto +10 v. Calgary | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
10* Toronto (9:00 ET): The Argos are off one of the most impressive performances of this CFL season. It was certainly their most complete game. I had them, in a revenge spot from the previous week against Montreal, and they rolled to a 38-6 win and cover. With the Als losing again Thursday, Toronto now finds itself all alone in first place in the weak Eastern Division. The task is certainly tougher this week, but the spread is also larger, as they face the Stampeders on the road. As per usual, Calgary is the class of this league. They too are off an impressive win, 21-17 at B.C., though the margin of victory was nowhere near what Toronto's was last week. The Stamps' four-game SU and ATS win streak does include a 41-24 victory at Toronto. But, armed w/ revenge for a 2nd straight week, I believe the Argos plus the points are the way to go again. Earlier, I said that last week was - easily - Toronto's most complete performance of the season. I wasn't joking. They outgained Montreal 466-140 in the 38-6 win. Clearly, the key was the return of QB Ricky Ray, who threw for 377 yards and four TD's, all in first half. The game was over by halftime as the Argos were up 35-0. However, let us not discount the job the defense is doing here. Not only do they lead the league in yards per game allowed (305.9), but sacks (30) as well. That's despite being w/o several key players. They're now closer to full strength on that side of the ball and thus I expect the results we've seen to continue. Of course, Ray is healthy now too and that's the biggest difference for this team. While Toronto has the league's best defense, Calgary has the top offense. They are rolling up almost 400 yards per game. This team rarely loses at home. In fact, they've won 13 straight at McMahon Stadium. But might the pointspread catch up with them finally? They are 2 for 2 ATS as a double digit favorite so far. But those games were against Saskatchewan and Hamilton, the league's two last place teams and the latter being - easily - the worst team in the league. The Stampeders have hardly played the hardest schedule in the league to this point. Last week was their toughest matchup to date as they won only 21-17 at British Columbia. Winning in B.C. is not easy, but QB Bo Levi Mitchell completed only 48 percent of his passes, which is worrisome. Also, you have to wonder if this will be a lookahead for Calgary as they have the annual home and home against rival Edmonton looming. Toronto is undervalued here, plain and simple. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-26-17 | South Florida v. San Jose State +22 | Top | 42-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
8* San Jose State (7:30 ET): #19 USF rides into 2017 w/ plenty of fanfare. They are one of the favorites to represent the "group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" bowl game, coming off an 11-2 SU season (and one of those losses was at Florida State). Over the last two years, the team is 17-8-1 ATS. But with success comes new challenges. First off, HC Willie Taggart was lured away by Oregon. Charlie Strong takes over and while Taggart by no means left the cupboard empty, Strong certainly "won less w/ more" at his previous stop, Texas. The Bulls will also have to deal w/ inflated expectations. Case in point; this matchup at San Jose State where they're being asked to lay three touchdowns. Taggart's teams were only asked to lay more than two touchdowns one time on the road and that was the '15 finale against what was a winless UCF squad! Yes, there's a talent gap here, but I'll gladly grab the "bushel" of points with home dog San Jose State. Two years ago, San Jose State won a bowl game. But they dipped to 4-8 SU last year and Ron Caragher was shown the door as a result. His replacement, Brent Brennan, has never even been a coordinator at the FBS level. But he knows the program (assistant here from 2005-10). The last six years he worked as the WR coach at Oregon State. His two coordinators are both first-timers as well, one of them (OC Andrew Sowder) they youngest in FBS (only 28). With the new and inexperienced coaching staff, expectations are down this year. But I see the Spartans as likely being highly motivated for this game, which could be their lone visit this year from a ranked opponent (San Diego St on 11.4?). Brennan does inherit 15 returning starters and I have the offense improving after averaging only 24.4 PPG a year ago. USF figures to be favored in every game this year. Though the consensus favorite to win the AAC, note that they only outgained conference foes by an average of 14.6 PPG despite going 7-1 SU. I remember that at this time - last year- we were talking about a different AAC team (Houston) as likely to run the table. Guess what? They finished w/ four losses and didn't even win their division. One major issue I see with these Bulls is that the seniors will be playing under their fourth different coordinator in as many years. They did give up 31.6 PPG in 2016, not much fewer than SJ State allowed, and that's obviously problematic when laying this large of a number. On offense, they must find a way to replace the lost production of RB Marlon Mack. Yes, dual threat QB Quinton Flowers is awesome and USF is very likely to win this game. But I'll gladly fade what is likely to be a very "public" side here. 8* San Jose State | |||||||
08-26-17 | Browns v. Bucs OVER 41 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
8* Over Browns/Bucs (7:30 ET): Neither of these teams have done much scoring the first two weeks of the preseason. Expect that to change here, however, as the third preseason game is the one that most closely resembles preseason play (starters play longer). Tampa Bay's offense is a lot better than its shown these first two games where they've scored only 12 points both times. Cleveland's defense is also probably a lot worse than its shown as they've gotten away w/ allowing a combined 16 points to the Saints and Giants. But remember that the Saints are w/o Drew Brees and the Giants have looked horrible so far and it didn't help that LW every NY receiver seemed to get injured. On a short week, it seems like the knee-jerk reaction would be to fade the Browns, but Over is the better call in my estimation. In their first preseason game, Tampa Bay faced Cincinnati. QB Jameis Winston, who is under a lot of pressure to produce big in his third season as a pro, looked great as he threw for 99 yds in just one quarter of play. He led a 14 play, 92 yard drive that resulted in a chip shot (as in 20-yd) field goal. It was a drive that probably should have ended in a TD, but an obvious pass interference call was missed. Last week, Winston looked solid again as he completed 21 of 29 passes for 196 yards. He also had what looked like it would be a 43 yard TD pass, dropped, by Mike Evans. The Bucs still ended up scoring on their first three drives though (1 TD, 2 FG). With Winston and the Bucs 1st team offense figuring to be in for at least a half here, I expect their biggest numbers to date. Cleveland is one of the few remaining teams with an open QB competition. It sure does appear as if the job is rookie DeShone Kizer's to lose. The Browns are learning fast something that the Broncos and Texans already know all too well ... Brock Osweiler simply isn't very good. But you can bet both signal callers, plus second year man Cody Kessler, will be out to impress the coaching staff here. As for that Browns defense, they are fortunate not to have given up more points as they have five turnovers to their credit. We've already established that the Tampa Bay offense will be the toughest they've faced to date. As for the Buccaneers defense, well, even as much of a work in progresss as the Browns offense is, it will be a tougher challenge than the Jaguars pathetic display last week. Also note that TB benefited from some awful Jacksonville playcalling a week ago. With the ball first and goal, the Jags for some reason decided to throw four consecutive fades w/ their third string QB. TB's offense will do the heavy lifting early and, if needed, the backup defenses will help push this one Over. 8* Over Browns/Buccaneers | |||||||
08-26-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): Few coaches have been more profitable this time of year (meaning the preseason) than Baltimore's John Harbaugh. With a 2-0 ATS (also 2-0 SU) start this year, he's now 25-13 against the number in his career. The Ravens have won all six preseason games the L2 seasons, the only team that can claim to be unbeaten during that time frame. If this all sounds like an endorsement for them this week, well, think again! As impressive as the resume may be, I'm not a huge fan of this team heading into 2017. QB Joe Flacco's ornerous contract has really hindered GM Ozzie Newsome's ability to construct a deep roster. Making matters worse, Flacco has yet to play this preseason ... or even practice. His status for the reg season opener remains questionable. Now the Ravens haven't needed Flacco in the preseason as their defense has been incredible, holding Washington and Miami to 10 points and 258 yards - total. This Ravens' defense was very stout last year, particularly against the run, but they did slip late in the year and that played a role in the team missing the playoffs. Buffalo, very quietly, had the league's top rushing offense a year ago. So that's something to keep in mind here. I do not think the Ravens' defense will be as good as it was last year and certainly not as good as it's been the first two weeks of the preseason. Last week, they got to face a depleted Miami team that was breaking in Jay Cutler (came out of a retirement) for the first time. With no Flacco, the Ravens will have to lean heavily here on Ryan Mallett, who has been his usual horrible self in the preseason. His passer rating is 53.2, which ranks 93rd among all QB's that have seen action. He threw two INT's last week. Baltimore's offense does not impress me, nor should it impress anyone. Buffalo is 0-2 SU/ATS this preseason, but has actually outgained both opponents. Last week saw them outgain the Eagles (in Philly), putting up over 400 total yds. But they couldn't get out of their own way (four turnovers) in a 20-16 loss. Full disclosure, despite trading away Sammy Watkins and the retirement of Anquan Boldin, I'm higher on this team than most. I think they were better than LY's 7-9 SU record. The problem is they were poorly coached (Rex Ryan). Ryan is gone (thankfully) and Sean McDermott is a 1st year HC still looking for a win. That should be a motivational edge here. QB Tyrod Taylor is better than he looked last week and backup Nathan Peterman (rookie) looked good in Week 1. In limited duty, RB LeSean McCoy looked explosive last week. Baltimore will be a popular play here, but taking the points is the way to go. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 28 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (6:00 ET): By any objective standard, UMass was not a good football team last season. The Minutemen went 2-10 SU for HC Mark Whipple (his 2nd stint here in Amherst) w/ one of the wins coming against FCS Wagner. Their season unceremoniously ended with a 46-40 loss out in Hawaii where they did cover as seven-point underdogs. Wouldn't you know it; Hawaii is also the opponent for TY's season opener! Last year's meeting meant "the world" to the Warriors as they needed a win to secure a bowl bid (which they did), but this year we're starting w/ an even slate and there won't be that clear motivational edge for one side. Saturday's game also takes place in Amherst, a big difference when you're talking a cross-country trip. While Hawaii managed to split its six road games LY, they had won just 1 of 24 under the previous regime! It was a very even game last November (tied 40-40 w/ under four minutes to go and after giving up the go-ahead score, UMass was then stopped on downs at the UH 21). With UMass set to be much improved in '17, I'll call for them to win and gain revenge for last year's defeat. UMass has yet to win a home opener since moving up to the FBS level five years ago. So that's some motivation, if you're looking for it. Note though all five previous years saw them open up against a Power 5 foe. Last year was set up for failure as they went from 19 returning starters in '15 (most in FBS) to only nine (#120) and became an Independent. The schedule was much tougher than being in the MAC as they played three SEC schools and ended the year w/ three true road games. This year, the Minutemen have nine returning starters on the defensive side of the ball alone. Six starters are back on offense and QB Andrew Ford, now a junior, will be in his second year at the helm. Ford has a quality target to throw to in TE Adam Breneman, who is on the Mackey Award watch list. Also indicating better times are ahead: the team is likely to improve upon LY's ugly -10 turnover margin and an 0-3 SU record in games decided by seven points or less. Conversely, Hawaii was a pretty lucky team in 2016. They overachieved in Nick Rolovich's 1st year, jumping from 3-10 to 7-7. Keep in mind that at one point, they were 4-7 SU. They were both outscored (-9.0 PPG!) and outgained (71 YPG) despite the .500 finish. Back to the struggles on the road; the program has lost its last six road openers - by an average of 23 points per game. This is a LONNNNG road trip and I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii forgets to "pack" its defense. 8* Massachusetts | |||||||
08-25-17 | Rangers v. A's -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Oakland (10:05 ET): The A's rarely get an endorsement from me. After all, they've been at the bottom of the AL West all year and one could make the arguement that they've been the American League's worst team for most of 2017. But conditions are favorable tonight as they return home to host division rival Texas. First off, the A's didn't have to play Thursday. Texas did. Next, this is a revenge spot. Believe it or not, this is the first time these teams have played since May where the Rangers swept a three-game set in Arlington. Previously, they'd split six head to head matchups. If you're a regular, then you know how I love taking teams playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep of 3+ games. It's just too difficult in today's game to beat the same opponent, day after day. Finally, Texas has made a pitching change here (reason for line being posted late). They now are going w/ Nick Martinez, who is not good (more on that later). The A's are the play here. Right-hander A.J. Griffin was originally supposed to start here for the Rangers, but he was pushed back until Sunday. Perhaps the team is feeling a little "too good" about itself after taking three of four from the Angels in Anaheim to start the week. That has them as one of FIVE teams within one game of the second Wild Card spot in the AL! But let's go back and look at just how bad Martinez has been this year. He was demoted after a pair of terrible starts at the beginning of the month where he allowed a total of 12 runs in 9 1/3 IP. The team lost both games. For the year, Martinez has a 5.68 ERA in 13 starts, including 6.19 in seven on the road. Oakland is going w/ Kendall Graveman, who has yet to drop a single decision at home this year (2-0 in six starts!). While the A's are an absolutely dreadful road team (21-41 record), they are over .500 here at home. Texas has a losing road record and the lowest team batting average on the road in all of baseball. That latter fact is good news for Graveman, who is already off B2B quality outings. Last time out, he certainly pitched well enough to win as he allowed just two runs in six innings. Unfortunately, his offense "forgot to score" in a 3-0 loss to Houston. The Oakland offense collected 27 hits the L2 games, so I don't expect a repeat of the hard-luck for Graveman tonight. This is a great spot for the A's to play spoiler, in my opinion. 10* Oakland | |||||||
08-25-17 | Tigers v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the White Sox +1.5. The last two days saw the Southsiders beat the Twins top two pitchers (here at home), so I've got no fear here in fading the Tigers' Justin Verlander, who has been woeful on the road anyway. Wednesday saw Chicago beat Ervin Santana, 4-3, as James Shields and three relievers held the Twins to just three hits, enabling a late-inning come from behind effort. Yesterday was far easier as they prevailed 5-1, again holding the Twins bats in check. Maybe Minnesota is overrated, but there's no disputing that Detroit is inferior, making the current price range questionable at best. In fact, this will be just the fifth time all season that the Tigers are priced between -125 and -175 on the road. They've gone 1-3 in the previous four instances. Even though Verlander has a 0.682 WHIP over the course of the last three starts, he was hammered in his lone road start during that time, giving up three home runs (five runs total) in a loss at Texas. Detroit is not a good road team at all; in fact, they've been outscored this year by an average of 1.3 rpg outside of Comerica Park. Verlander's TSR is 3-10 away from home as he has a 5.24 ERA and 1.461 WHIP. While they did win yday, the Tigers have been giving up runs in bunches lately. Over the last eight games, they've allowed an average of nearly 8.0 rpg and four times during that stretch they've allowed 10+ runs. While they did sweep the White Sox the last time they faced them, that was back in June and in Detroit. The White Sox had taken 9 of the first 15 meetings as well. Miguel Gonzalez will start here for Chicago and like Verlander, he's been enjoying a strong stretch. Tonight marks the fourth time he will have faced the Tigers this season. The one time he got to face them at home, the White Sox won, 7-3. Over his L3 starts, Gonzalez has a 0.90 ERA and 1.100 WHIP. Last time out, he tossed six scoreless innings, which resulted in a 3-2 win at Texas as +182 underdogs. What's really impressive about this recent stretch for Gonzalez is that he was a +182, +300 and +190 dog on the money line and the team has won two of the three starts. He's had to face a lot of the "big boys" here in the second half (Dodgers twice, Indians, Cubs, Red Sox and Houston), so facing the Tigers should be a "walk in the park" by comparison. I haven't even mentioned the wild brawl that Detroit was involved in (w/ the Yankees) yday and there could be repercussions from that. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) | |||||||
08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins -148 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:10 ET): Anytime I can play against San Diego at this price, I'll jump on the opportunity. Especially if they are off a rare win as they are here. Last night saw the Padres stun the Cardinals, 4-3, as +225 ML dogs. But that singular result can't change the fact that this team has been outscored by more runs than any other in baseball (-148 run diff). Most of that damage has come on the road where they are 24-40 and -1.6 rpg. If we're being honest (I always like to be!) here, as bad as the Padres' record is right now (57-70), it ought to be even worse. Based on run differential, they have a win expectancy of only 47 games. That 10-game differential between actual and expected wins is by far the largest in the National League! Clearly, I'm on the other side tonight. Everyone besides the Nats is playing for second in the NL East this year. Really, it's a pointless distinction as none of the other four teams in the division are in serious playoff contention. But tip your cap to Miami, who is now .500 after taking three of four from the lowly Phillies. Overall, it was a 5-2 road trip for the Fish. Now they get to return home and play a favorable opponent. I'm impressed with this team keeping it together considering the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. Giancarlo Stanton, the other cornerstone, has been darn near unconscious at the plate as yday saw him slug his 47th home run (#1 in MLB) and 14th in August. Overcoming a five-run deficit on Thursday afternoon shows me that the Marlins believe they can get into Wild Card contention. I probably should talk about the pitching matchup. As we know, San Diego struggles on the road. Those struggles even extend to Travis Wood, who has made just two road starts for the team since coming over from Kansas City around the All-Star Break. Neither start has gone well either as Wood has a 8.10 ERA and 1.900 WHIP and the team has lost both times. Admittedly, Wood was sharp at home his last time out, allowing only an unearned run (over 7 IP) in a somewhat shocking upset of Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals. But that was at home, obviously. Marlins' starter Adam Conley is also off a strong start as he allowed just one run on three hits Sunday in his own upset of Jacob deGrom and the Mets. Plus, he had 11 strikeouts, which is far more impressive than the two Wood had vs. Washington. Miami has won four of Conley's six starts since he was recalled from Triple A. Conley has a 1.13 ERA in two career appearances vs. San Diego while Wood has a 7.92 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Miami. Let's also not forget that the Padres offense ranks dead last in the league in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. 8* Miami | |||||||
08-25-17 | Patriots -2 v. Lions | Top | 30-28 | Push | 0 | 56 h 31 m | Show |
10* New England (7:00 ET): The Lions have opened the preseason 2-0 SU, also covering both games. But they've also had the good fortune of playing both the Colts (traditionally one of the worst preseason teams and w/o Andrew Luck) and the Jets (the consensus worst team in the league this year). Furthemore, while both victories came by double digit margins, neither was particularly impressive. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 0-2. That means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but you can bet it has Bill Belichick at least a tad bit more ornery than usual. With this being the week that most resembles regular season action (starters seeing most action), I give a huge edge to the Patriots, obviously a far more talented team than Detroit. Lay the short number. Despite Tom Brady playing only two series so far, the Patriots have put up 47 points, which is more than the Lions. Brady completed six of nine pass attempts last week, his first game action since the Super Bowl, and directed a touchdown drive. That bodes well for this week. The Pats' offense has severely out-first downed its two opponents thus far (50 total) and even w/o Brady put up 426 total yds of offense against Jacksonville in Wk 1 (lost 31-24). Last week, they outgained the Texans (339-281) w/ a 24-13 first down edge, but were undone by a -3 turnover ratio. After Brady inevitably leaves this game, he'll give way to Jimmy Garoppolo, who is a more than capable backup. Rob Gronkowski will also play here. One thing I can also guarantee is that after two sub-optimal efforts, Belichick will have his defense better prepared for Week 3. While New England enters the 2017 season as the Super Bowl favorite (what else is new?), I have Detroit regressing rather severely. Yes, the Lions did make the playoffs a season ago (at 9-7), but they had zero wins over fellow playoff teams. They were outscored by 32 points (including 26-6 playoff loss to Seattle) and the defense actually allowed the highest completion percentage in NFL history (Brady and Garoppolo have to be salivating!). Were it not for a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks, no way would this team have made the playoffs. This year, I believe they will end up as one of the worst teams in the NFC. Were this game to be played in the regular season, the line would clearly be far greater and thus there's some value considering New England's starters will see extended time plus they are the deeper team overall. 10* New England | |||||||
08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels -124 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): I've been on the Halos in each of the first three games of this series and unfortunately come up short twice. Last night, it was a 7-5 loss (in 10 innings). But I'll maintain that Los Angeles remains the better team here even though they have a losing record against the Rangers this year (5-7) and an inferior run differential. A big key tonight is Texas sending Martin Perez to the bump. Perez is not a good starter and despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 outings, he still sports a 5.19 ERA and 1.562 WHIP for the year. The Rangers' bullpen has been bad on the road all year as well and is currently w/o one of its key components. Third baseman Joey Gallo is also still out. This is the 4th time in 7 days that the Rangers come into a game at exactly .500. They've lost each of the previous three occasions. The Angels will go w/ Troy Scribner Thursday. Again, the names in this starting rotation may not jump off the page at you, but there's been some really solid production out of these relatively unknown arms. The Angels are currently #5 in runs allowed in the American League, trailing only the "obvious" four playoff teams. As I've discussed previously, Texas has the worst road batting average in all of baseball (.222) and it's not even close. That will certainly benefit Scribner, who comes in w/ a 3.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in two starts, both resulting in wins for the team. The last one came on 8.9 against Baltimore, who he held to just one run (a solo HR) on two hits in 5 IP. Scribner has mostly pitched at Triple-A Salt Lake this year where he's gone 11-4. Given Texas' year-long struggles to hit the ball on the road, yday's 13-run output should certainly be taken w/ a grain of salt. I expect Scribner to pitch well in this spot. Perez was tagged for six runs in his last start, but got a break as the offense broke loose for 17 runs in what ended up being an easy win over the lowly White Sox. But that was in Arlington. It was the third time in five starts that Perez allowed six or more runs. While the other two starts were both good, the overall numbers indicate that Perez is more like the pitcher we saw last Saturday vs. Chicago. Also, one of those two quality starts took place in an NL park, making it easier on him as he got to face the pitcher. In fact, take away National League opponents and Perez has just one quality start since the All-Star Break. He's 2-4 w/ a 3.53 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels. The only time he faced them this season was back in April. He allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP. I still believe in the Angels. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-24-17 | Nationals +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Nationals at +1.5. Stephen Strasburg, plus an additional 1.5 runs? Thank you, very much! Now obviously there's a reason for this and that reason is he'll be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this evening. Keuchel has dropped only two decisions this year for the Astros (11-2 in 16 starts) and as per usual has been outstanding here at home (1.35 ERA, 0.857 WHIP). But Strasburg is every bit his equal (if not better) and certainly arrives in better form for tonight's series finale between division leaders. Whereas Strasburg has a 1.80 ERA and 0.933 WHIP his L3 starts, Keuchel is at 4.58 and 1.471 respectively. Runs figure to be at a premium here and let's be sure to note that Houston actually has a losing record since the All-Star Break (17-20). Washington is 23-13 its L36 games despite the loss last night. The run line makes a ton of sense here. The Nats have actually owned this Interleague matchup through the years, going 13-2 head to head w/ the Astros. They'd beaten them nine straight times after Tuesday's 4-3 victory. But Houston was able to bounce back last night, winning 6-1, thanks to hitting three homers. Strasburg doesn't allow many of those, however, so that offensive weapon could be out the door tonight. Strasburg did allow one HR his last time out, his only mistake, in a shocking and hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Padres. After the 1st inning HR, he allowed just two more hits over six innings and finished w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. Notable is that was Strasburg's return from a stint on the DL. His last four starts that have NOT been cut short by injury have all been quality ones. For the record, the Nats own the best road record in baseball (40-24) and are 29-17 off a loss this season. Keuchel had his own stint on the DL recently. He was roughed up right before that, giving up eight runs as a -250 ML favorite against the White Sox. But since returning, he's been back to his usual dominant self. Still, he has a 5.73 ERA in two career starts vs. Washington and let's not forget the NL team benefits here from the addition of the DH to their lineup. Even w/o the DH, the Nationals rank fourth in runs scored, third in batting average, sixth in OBP and 2nd in slugging. Curiously, Houston has been a better team on the road this season as they've actually lost money here at Minute Maid Park. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5) | |||||||
08-24-17 | Twins -173 v. White Sox | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -173 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): By no means am I enamored w/ the Twins (-33 run diff). They lost last night to the White Sox despite a seemingly big starting pitching edge in their favor (Santana vs. Shields). However, it's the same thing on paper tonight and I don't see them losing again. This is actually the finale of a FIVE-game series between the AL Central rivals (played a doubleheader Monday) that has seen each side win twice. The key here is Chicago's Derek Holland might just be the worst starter in all of MLB. In 24 starts this season, he has produced a 6.46 ERA and 1.720 WHIP. But that doesn't even begin to tell the story of how horrible he's been recently. He's given up seven runs in B2B starts despite lasting a total of just 4 2/3 innings! Jose Berrios has been a fine #2 (behind Santana) for the Twins this year and the road team should roll here. Last night marked the first time this season that Minnesota lost as a ML road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. They were 4-0 previously and 7-0 the L3 seasons! Like Houston (discussed elsewhere in this package), the Twins are one of the few teams that have actually performed better on the road than at home this season (Cleveland and Washington are the others). Now that really hasn't been the case when Berrios is on the hill (4-6 TSR on the road), but tonight's starter is off a gem where he outdueled Arizona's Zack Greinke. Last Saturday saw Berrios toss seven shutout innings of two hit ball as the Twins won 5-0 over the D'backs as +130 ML underdogs. He has gotten to face the White Sox only one time this season and not surprisingly he dominated them as back on 6.21 he went eight innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. Like last time out, he finished w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. The fact that Holland has remained in the White Sox rotation all season speaks to just how bad said rotation is. The Twins are certainly happy to see him again as they are Talready 3-0 against him in 2017. The last two times, they've touched him up for seven runs in five innings or less. That means Holland has an ERA of 9.64 against the Twins in '17, which also includes him pitching 1/3 of an inning of relief on Monday. Even then, he managed to give up three runs! Why the White Sox would use him in relief in that spot, I do not know. What I do know is that Holland's career ERA is 5.68 against the Twins and he's 2-6 in 13 starts. So he's never really pitched well against this particular opponent. Chicago is a lousy team, going nowhere fast, while Minnesota is trying to hold down the second Wild Card in the American League (three teams within one game of them!). This is a "must win" for the Twins. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
08-23-17 | Rangers v. Angels -143 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): No surprise here; I'm sticking w/ the Halos here as I believe they're the superior team in this AL West rivalry. Now, normally, I might make a case for Texas due to their YTD run differential of +28, which is the best among the eight teams currently competing for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. But as I've noted many times before, regression (in terms of wins and losses) was set to take hold on the Rangers from the start of 2017 and their season has played out exactly as I had anticipated. Remember, LY's team that led the AL in wins (95) only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! Simply put, they were "due" to win fewer games this year and barring a 36-1 finish to the season (ain't happening!), that will happen. As for the Angels, right now, I believe they are going to be the team that gets that last playoff spot. I've been on the home team in both games thus far and so has the smart money. With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps fading Cole Hamels on Monday was not the best idea. But a 10-1 win last night was "more like it" as the Angels scored runs in all of the final four innings they came up to bat. They've now won 10 of their previous 13 games and yday's 16 hits were a season-high. Something I included in yday's analysis still rings true today and that's the Rangers are the worst hitting team in baseball on the road. It's not even close as their .220 batting average is 14 points lower than the next worst team! To put that gap in its proper perspective, note that it's larger than the one that exists between the 18th and 29th place teams! So with Texas' woes at the plate persisting, expect things to be fairly easy on Angels' starter Andrew Heaney tonight. While his 1st start of 2017 (coming off Tommy John surgery) didn't go so well, it did come at Baltimore, a team that can score in bunches at home. Heaney allowed FOUR home runs last Friday, which isn't a great sign, but I feel he's still worth backing here. The Rangers' counter with an Andrew of their own, Cashner, and he lost as a -210 money line favorite his last time out! That was against the White Sox as he walked four batters and gave up three runs in 5 2/3 IP. He has a 3-7 TSR on the road, so that combined with his offense's issues means another loss is very likely for tonight. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-23-17 | Padres v. Cardinals -164 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals were embarrassed last night by the Padres, losing 12-4. While it was their third loss in a row, I fully anticipate the Redbirds bouncing back tonight here at home. As stated many times before, San Diego - records aside - is the worst team in baseball. They have the worst run differential (-145) in either league and have been particularly brutal on the road, getting outscored by a whopping 1.6 runs per game. No team has a worse run differential away from home. There have been only FIVE times all season where they have beaten the same opponent, consecutive days, on the road. Three of those came at the expense of the Giants (twice) and Phillies. The Cardinals are in a pennant race (currently trail Cubs by 4.5 gms) and don't dare drop another one to such an inferior opponent. What happened last night was a very rare power surge from the Padres. While not as rare as the solar eclipse we all saw Monday, you simply aren't going to find San Diego scoring 12 runs very often. Not only did that match their season-high (set previously twice, both time against the Giants), but it was more runs scored than their previous five games - combined. Eight of the 12 runs came late, breaking open what had been a 4-4 tie entering the seventh inning. You have to remember that the Padres still rank dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. Thus, I look for Cards starter Luke Weaver to be the beneficiary of some good ol' "Padres regression" here. Weaver has started only twice previously this season (last time was 8.2), but did throw two shutout innings in relief last Thursday, helping his team overcome a five-run deficit and beat Pittsburgh 11-7. Mirroring his team's awful play on the road, San Diego starter Jhoulys Chacin does not have good numbers outside of Petco Park this season. While his TSR might be 5-7, his ERA and WHIP are 7.05 and 1.650 respectively. Arguably the Padres' best starter, Chacin has had literally zero success vs. the Cards as he's 0-4 w/ a 5.81 ERA against them in five previous tries. While it's been St. Louis giving up plenty of runs lately, for the year, they only allow an average of 4.0 per game here at home. They are also 22-9 the L3 seasons after three or more consecutive losses. This is a tailor-made spot for the vastly superior team to bounce back Wednesday night. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
08-23-17 | Red Sox v. Indians -182 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): On paper, the Indians appeared to have what looked like a pretty significant edge in starting pitching yday vs. Boston. It was Carlos Carrasco facing off w/ Doug Fister, but it was Fister that came up big w/ a one-hitter in a surprise 9-1 victory for the Red Sox. While it's unusual to find the AL East leaders in this price range (closed at +165 last night), I'll jump in against them tonight as they must deal w/ Corey Kluber and I just can't see the Tribe losing B2B games as big favorites here at Progressive Field. This could very well be the first time all year that the Red Sox close at +175 or higher on the ML and it's more than justified considering Kluber has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts. Last night's final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the Red Sox scored six run late, most of that off the Cleveland bullpen. You probably don't need me to tell you that Kluber is having himself another downright filthy season. He is 8-1 w/ a 2.09 ERA and 0.860 WHIP at home. Last time out, he saw his streak of 14 consecutive starts w/ at least 8 K's end, but only due to having to exit early due to a mild ankle sprain. The Indians won anyway, 10-1, as Kluber gave up a solo home run in 5 1/3 IP and little else. That streak of 14 games w/ 8+ K's was one shy of Randy Johnson's MLB record, by the way. Since the start of June, Kluber has an other-worldly 155-18 KW ratio. Even after exiting that last start early, he remains 3rd among all American League starters in strikeouts. He is second in both ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.924) and the numbers only seem to getting better as the season wears on. Opponents are batting just .174 against him his L15 starts! His 14 complete games and five shutouts over the L4 seasons are both AL-bests. Boston knows all too well about how domninant Kluber can be as the last time they faced him (LY's ALDS), they were shutout for seven innings and held to three hits. Can Boston's Drew Pomeranz repeat the performance we saw from Fister last night? Unlikely. While he didn't give up any runs in his last start, Pomeranz lasted only 3 1/3 innings as he too was battling an injury (back spasms). He may be unbeaten (6-0) in 12 starts dating back to June 11th, but all things considered, I'll take Kluber over Pomeranz every time, especially if the latter is less than 100 percent. Cleveland's bullpen issues (Andrew Miller injured) don't matter as much here due to Kluber's ability to consistently pitch deep into games. The most significant injury heading into this matchup is on the Boston side as Jackie Bradley Jr is out after injuring his thumb on a slide in yday's game. 6* Cleveland | |||||||
08-22-17 | Rangers v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels got a ton of action heading into last night's series opener w/ Texas. Though it certainly appeared to be sharp dollars accounting for the line move (I was on them too!), they ended up losing 5-3 and in retrospect, betting against Cole Hamels may have been a miscalculation. Still, it was a short-handed Rangers team coming into Anaheim and the Angels had won 9 of 11. The visitors are still w/o two valuable pieces, 3B Joey Gallo and RP Matt Bush, both of whom were placed on the 10-day DL after a nasty collision Sunday. There will be no Hamels to save them tonight and I remain pretty adamant that the Halos are the better ballclub here. I think the offense "wakes back up" here against Tyson Ross, who despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, is struggling mightly. In today's edition of "a pitcher's record can be highly misleading," let me introduce Mr. Ross of Texas. The team may have won each of his previous three starts, but that's in spite of the pitcher producing a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP! Rarely will you see a pitcher have an unblemished team start record during a span in which his WHIP is north of 2.000. So Ross is certainly "due" to drop one. He hasn't made it a full six innings in any start since the All-Star Break and control issues have been a major issue of late, especially last time out where he walked SIX batters in just 4 1/3 IP. That was against the lowly White Sox, no less. Ironically, the last time you could say Ross pitched "well" was against these Angels (back on 7.8), but that was at home. He is winless in four road starts this year, thanks in large part to an 8.50 ERA and 1.722 WHIP. Now Angels starter Ricky Nolasco has certainly not pitched much better than Ross of late and has been plagued by wild inconsistency all season long. He didn't pitch well against Texas either time he faced them in '17, nor does he have a good career track record against them. But he does come off a nice win last Wednesday at Washington where he allowed just two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 IP. He should benefit here from the fact that Texas' hitters have a collective .219 batting average on the road this season, which is - easily - the worst in all of MLB. Second worst is Arizona and they're at .234. Only three teams - San Diego, Philadelphia and Oakland - have scored fewer runs on the road this year than have the Rangers. In a big national TV game (ESPN), I expect Nolasco and the Angels to "show up" big time. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays -190 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): This is a big-time revenge spot for the Rays, who dropped three of four up in Toronto last week w/ one of the games having this identical pitching matchup. Originially, the Blue Jays were going to start Marcus Stroman in this spot, but they've changed to Chris Rowley. While Rowley may have a 2-0 TSR, a 1.451 WHIP certainly isn't that impressive as he walked Rays last Thursday. Opposing him again will be Chris Archer, Tampa Bay's best pitcher, and considering they've lost 8 of 10, this is a virtual "must-win" for the home team. Archer pitched well enough to win on Thursday, certainly better than Rowley, as he struck out 10 (no walks) in seven innings (did give up 2 HR's). I think it's important to note that Toronto has been priced higher than +175 five times this season and has gone 0-5 in those games. A lack of hitting has really hurt the Rays in August. Even when they won for me Sunday, they scored only three times. They were fortunate in that Blake Snell shut out the Mariners, however, I think Archer is capable of doing the same here. Toronto has hardly hit the cover off the baseball lately as their team batting average is a pretty woeful .217 the L7 games after being swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Archer is quite familiar w/ this Jays team, having faced them 23x in his career, and his ERA is a solid 3.16. Other than Josh Donaldson, who hit both HR's, the Jays managed just three other hits against Archer, who has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. His last six times out, he has a 51-7 KW ratio. The chase for the second Wild Card spot in the American League is wide open. These AL East foes are two of the eight teams currently separated by just five games. Toronto happens to be in the "back of the pack" right now and their -81 run differential for the year all but confirms they are the worst of the lot. In fact, among all AL clubs, only the White Sox and Oakland have worse run differentials than the Jays. Toronto is also 4-11 when playing w/ a day off this year. Meanwhile, TB is 3-1 when off a shutout victory. I do believe that we're likely to see an uptick in offensive productions from the Rays here in the short-term (how can we not?), especially w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the fold. Despite what may have transpired last week, the Rays are the better team here and w/ their ace pitching tonight at home, I expect that to be apparent. 6* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-21-17 | Rangers v. Angels -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
10* LA Angels: Two of the eight teams (separated by only five games!) in the American League fighting for that second Wild Card open up the week w/ a critical four-game set in Anaheim. Weeks ago, I said that it was the Angels that could be the team that breaks out from this loaded pack and sure enough they've made me look pretty smart by winning 9 of 11, including a one-run victory at Baltimore on Sunday. The Rangers are also playing well entering Monday; they've won 8 of 11, but did lose yday (at home) to the lowly White Sox. Texas remains an interesting case study in regression as LY they led the AL in wins, but did so in spite of a measley +8 run differential. This year, their run diff is +35 (only one of the eight teams w/ a positive run diff currently), but they're a game below .500! While recent numbers look impressive for them, note all those games came at home. For the Angels, this is their return home following a nine-game road trip. I expect them to play well and they're the better team overall. Texas is probably feeling pretty good about itself w/ Cole Hamels set to be on the mound this evening. But even though he's 8-1 (9-6 TSR) and the team has won each of his L3 starts, he also has an ERA of 4.00 on the road this year. He's pitched very well against the Angels this year, giving up just one run in two starts (14 2/3 IP) , though the team did lose the one here in Anaheim. Let's note that the Rangers are just 26-33 overall on the road this year w/ their bullpen posting terrible numbers, such as a 5.30 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. They team may also be w/o two key contributors tonight as 3B Joey Gallo and reliever Matt Bush ran into each other yday, resulting in concussions for both. Reportedly, neither made the trip to Anaheim last night. Though the Rangers scored 17 runs on Saturday, having to settle for a split w/ the White Sox (4-game series) over the weekend isn't exactly inspiring. Texas comes in having scored the third most runs in the American League, trailing only the Astros and Yankees. But surprisingly, the Angelss have allowed the fourth fewest runs and are even ahead of the Astros. Tyler Skaggs has yet to win since coming back to the rotation at the start of the month, but his ERA in three starts is 2.94. Last time out, he allowed two solo HR's in a hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Nationals. But Skaggs should expect more run support this time as the offense scored 5+ runs in six of the nine games on the just completed road trip, doing so despite Andrelton Simmons being mired in a 0 for 19 slump (which should turn around sooner rather than later). Furthermore, the Halos are 55-26 their L81 games as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:00 ET): Saying last season was "bad" for the Browns would be an understatement of epic proportions. Not only were they 1-15 SU in the regular season, they lost all four preseason games as well (0-4 ATS!). In fact, prior to last week, this moribund franchise had lost 10 of its previous 12 exhibition contests. But led by rookie QB DeShone Kizer, they were able to beat the Saints, 20-14 as three-point home favorites. Cleveland gets to stay in the "Dawg Pound" this week for a nationally televised affair against the Giants, who lost their preseason opener 20-12, as 3.5-pt chalk, to Pittsburgh. Right now, it is the Browns that - clearly - have more to prove and I look for that to translate onto the field tonight as they win their second consecutive preseason game. The Giants are in store for some major regression in 2017, at least from where I sit. Last year saw them go 8-3 SU in one-score games and finish w/ a point differential of just +26, which is more indicative of a 9-win team than an 11-win one. I've got them falling back to 7-9 (SU) for 2017 due to a variety of reasons. As I just made note of, they exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation (8.8) by over two games last year. So they were quite fortunate to go 11-5 SU. Only Houston had a larger difference between actual and Pythagorean wins last year. The defense made a massive jump from 30th in DVOA to 2nd, so that unit will regress. QB Eli Manning is now getting up there in years (he's 36!) and is in decline. Manning did not play last week and figures to only be on the field for a few series (at most) tonight. The QB's that did see time last week - Geno Smith, Davis Webb and Josh Johnson - hardly strike fear into my heart. The Browns do not yet know who will be their starting QB come Wk 1 of the regular season. Brock Osweiler (brought over from Houston via trade) is being given every opportunity, but he stinks and isn't long for the job anyway. Cody Kessler saw significant time under center LY, but was outplayed last week by the rookie Kizer, who finished up w/ 184 yds passing (including the GW TD). The organization probably doesn't want Kizer to be the starter just yet, but that doesn't mean he won't play well again. I also liked what I saw from the Browns defense LW as the two rookies - Myles Garrett and Jabril Peppers - both looked good. The Browns have also had an extra day to prepare for this game and like I said earlier, this being a national TV affair should only further motivate the team in front of its own fans. Unlike most teams in the league, Cleveland SHOULD care about winning in the preseason. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
08-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mets +1.5. Even after dropping five of their last six (were just swept in Minnesota), the D'backs are still in Wild Card position in the National League, though their margin for error is now growing slimmer by the day. Expect "the world" to be on them tonight as they visit the Mets, who have lost six of their last seven games. But this road trip has made clear that Arizona is simply NOT the same team on the road as their runs per game average dips by nearly a run and a half compared to what they score at Chase Field. As a result, their record away from home is only 28-33 and that includes a 3-6 mark when favored in the -125 to -175 range. I think the Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss here, so take the +1.5. In the interest of full disclosure, the Mets let me down yday, losing 6-4 to the Marlins. That was w/ Jacob deGrom pitching. They did at least make things interesting late - by scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, but alas, it was not enough. The key play in the game was Miami's Dee Gordon reaching base on an infield single as Giancarlo Stanton quickly followed w/ a 3-run HR. This has obviously become a "lost" season in Queens, but that doesn't mean you won't still find some value on the Metropolitans from time to time. Here, they'll send Robert Gsellman to the mound. This will be just his second start since coming off the DL. The first came at Yankee Stadium, which was a tough spot, and he only allowed four hits in 5 1/3 IP. He did allow three runs - one unearned - and generall speaking when he's not facing one of the "big boys" (like a Los Angeles or Washington), he's pitched okay. Arizona will send Taijuan Walker to the bump and he hasn't won in two months. Lately, he's simply been pretty bad as his ERA is 5.62 and his WHIP is 1.562 the L3 starts. Overall, the team has lost the last SEVEN times he's pitched. That's not good, nor is the team's hitting over the previous week. They're averaging just 2.9 rpg w/ a collective .217 batting average. While they did sweep the Mets back in May (at Chase Field), two of those games were decided by one run. Arizona has played the third-most one-run games in all of baseball w/ 39. The way in which they got dominated over the weekend (by Minnesota!) is an ominous sign as they were outscored 27-8 in the three games. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) | |||||||
08-20-17 | Indians -145 v. Royals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (2:10 ET): The Indians are a house of fire right now as they've won eight of nine including both games so far here in Kansas City (I was on them both times). They now have the third best overall run differential in MLB (trailing only the Dodgers and Houston) and finally are starting to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the AL Central (6 gm lead on Minnesota, 7.5 over KC). No other team in the division has a run diff better than -31 currently, so there really is no debating that the Tribe is clearly the class of the Central. As I've mentioned in previous analysis, pitching has been the key to this run and that should continue today w/ Danny Salazar on the mound. Again, I expect the Royals to have no answer. Cleveland is #1 in the AL on the runs allowed side of the ledger, something that should serve them well moving forward. They've allowed 38 fewer runs than Boston, who has given up the 2nd fewest number. All but one other AL team has allowed 70 more runs this season than Cleveland, who has allowed just one run in this series and three or fewer in eight of the last nine games. Now it's Salazar's turn and he comes in flashing awesome form. His L5 starts have seen him allow five runs total (1.39 ERA) and his KW ratio is 46-9. He dominated the Twins on Tuesday, striking out 10 while allowing just one run on three hits (went seven innings). If that's not enough, Cleveland's bullpen also sports the lowest ERA in the league. This has been an excellent road team all season as they are actually outscoring opponents by a full run per game away from Progressive Field. They are 8-2 on the current trip (final game today) and an AL-best 20-8 since July 21st. Meanwhile, the Royals are trending in the opposite direction as they have lost 12 of 18 games here in August and the culprit has been their starting pitching, which has a 5.99 ERA for the month. So, as you might expect, we have a pitching mismatch on our hands here as KC will go w/ Jason Hammel in this spot. I can't see Hammel standing up to Salazar here, not after the former allowed three home runs (to the A's!) in his last start. Hammel also has a 4-10 team start record here at home. KC has been outscored at home this season and simply is not in their division rival's class. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays burned me yet again last night as they fell to Seattle 7-6. It was their eighth loss in the last nine games and fourth in a row. I've been on them for each of the last three, all of which have been as ML favorites. Yes, I've talked about the lack of offense before, but late last night we finally started to see signs of this lineup waking up. Though the rally ultimately fell one run short, the team did fight back and scored four times over the final four frames. It matched their best offensive output in the L15 games (scored just 30 runs total). The Rays still have yet to beat Seattle this year (0-5), a head to head record that makes little sense considering how the two Wild Card contenders profile rather evenly. TB even has a slightly better YTD run differential. I'm sticking w/ them one more time today and calling for them to avoid the sweep. Eight teams are now separated by just four games in the chase for that final Wild Card spot in the American League. Among those eight teams, only Texas has a positive run differential. Seattle has now won four straight to get to two games above .500, but let us not forget they'd lost five in a row prior to the current win streak. This is an average team at best, one that is below average w/ Yovani Gallardo (starts today) on the mound. Gallardo checks in w/ a 7-12 TSR as his ERA and WHIP are 6.41 and 1.585 respectively. He's been even worse recently, particularly in his last start where he allowed eight runs in just four innings of work. The Mariners lost that game, 11-3 to Baltimore. Gallardo hasn't gone a full six innings in six consecutive starts. A grand slam (from Mitch Haniger) is what did the Rays in yday, but hopefully we'll be in better hands today w/ Blake Snell on the mound. Snell is off his 1st win of the season (in 16 starts!), but that's misleading when you consider that the team has won each of the last three times the lefty has started. That includes wins over both Houston and Cleveland as ML underdogs. The current stretch is easily the Rays worst of the season, but the "good" news is that they have not lost more than five games in a row at any point this season. The current streak is at four and they were 9-3 coming off three consecutive losses before this streak began. I simply can't see them being swept by the Mariners for a second time this season. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -158 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): This is the rubber match between these two NL East also-rans w/ the Mets looking to win two in a row for just the second time here in August. Last night's win was all about "one big inning" as they scored seven times in the sixth, an inning where Miami also happened to commit three errors. Today, they have Jacob deGron toeing the rubber and I like their chances. The Marlins are deGrom's most common opponent (11 starts) and he has a 3.46 ERA against them. While off a rare rough outing his last time out (allowed 5 ER in 7 1/3 IP vs. the Yankees), deGrom has been the stalwart of this Mets rotation w/ a 15-9 TSR overall and he's got a 2.49 ERA and 1.147 WHIP here at home. Prior to his last start, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts. Compared to the Mets, Miami had been playing well of late. Going into yday's game, they'd won six of seven and took the series opener 3-1. But this is by no means any kind of strong outfit; in fact, they've been at least two games under .500 since late April. Adam Conley pitches for the Fish today and he comes in w/ a 5.26 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 12 starts this year. He did pitch well his last time out, a quality effort vs. San Francisco (who is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, mind you), but notice also that Conley did not strike out a single batter. He is 2-0 against the Mets this year w/ both starts coming all the way back in early April. One was at deGrom's expense. But the bottom line is that this is a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 1.741 WHIP his L3 starts. I feel today's game happens to be a huge pitching mismatch in the Mets' favor. The April 15th faceoff w/ Conley is the only time deGrom has started against Miami this year. He certainly pitched well enough to win back on April 13th as he delivered 13 K's (same # as Conley has in his last four starts combined) and allowed just two runs (both solo HR's) in 7 IP. In my opinion, deGrom is due for a better success rate. His TSR over his L7 starts is just 4-3, but he has a 53:10 KW ratio over that time, not to mention a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. He remains an elite pitcher, one that the Marlins will not have an answer for on Sunday. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
08-19-17 | Broncos v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (10:00 ET): This will be the first home game for the 49ers new coaching staff, led by Kyle Shanahan, the architect of the great Falcons offense we saw a year ago. Anyone who thinks Shanahan can come even remotely close to that kind of production w/ the personnel he inherits here ought to have their head examined. That beind said, the Niners gained an impressive 434 total yards in last week's 27-17 win over Kansas City, the most of any team in Week 1! And starting QB Brian Hoyer played only one series. So maybe Shanahan is onto something here. Certainly, he'll be "out for victory" again tonight as the Niners are in desperate need of impressing a fanbase that hasn't had much to cheer about since Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan. Lay the short number. Denver was also victorious in their first preseason game, 24-17, but they were outgained 363-281 and made a rookie (Mitchell Trubisky) look like the greatest Bears QB in multiple generations. This Broncos team has been carried the L2 years by an awesome defense, including to a win in Super Bowl 50 even as Peyton Manning's skills were deterioriating at a rapid rate. But I don't see that defense performing at the same level this year (DC Wade Phillips has left) and the team still has no answer at QB as neither Paxton Lynch nor Trevor Siemian has impressed. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos finish in last place in the AFC West. They too have a 1st year HC, Vance Joseph, but he's likely more concerned w/ next week's home debut (against Green Bay) than he is w/ this game. While it was not the first team Denver defense that got torched by Trubisky last week, it's nevertheless concerning here. A rookie was able to come in and in his 1st NFL action complete 18 of 25 pass attempts for 166 yards and rush three times for 38 yards. Those numbers don't even tell the full story of how good the UNC product looked. So there's hope for the San Francisco QB's here. I also like how Shanahan stayed committed to running the ball last week as the offense finished w/ 188 yds on 36 carries. He should do the same again here as the Broncos defensive front is thin right now. The 49ers defense also kept the Chiefs under 200 total yds and forced a pair of turnovers. This time of year, it's the bad teams from the previous season that have more to prove and thus they tend to show more effort. The Broncos were lucky to even win last week as they scored two TD's late and got another (early) from the defense. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
08-19-17 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 39 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Over Packers/Redskins (7:30 ET): Washington is looking to atone for a poor first effort here as they lost to Baltimore last week, 23-3. Certainly they can't be any more inept offensively as they managed just 138 total yards against the Ravens. For all the chatter that continues to surround QB Kirk Cousins, the bottom line remains that there aren't many better options for the Redskins at this point. Elite signal callers rarely become available via free agency and anyone who watches College Football knows that the number of NFL-ready arms is minimal at best. Quietly, the Redskins had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago, ranking #3 in the passing game and overall (trailing only Atlanta and New Orleans in both categories). I anticipate seeing more of Cousins in the second game and that should help this matchup vs. the Packers go Over the total. Obviously, Green Bay is happy with its QB. Aaron Rodgers returns for his 10th year (already?!) as the starter and under his guidance, the Packers offense should again be one of the league's best. Now he sat out LW's 24-9 win over the Eagles, a game where the offense managed only one TD prior to the closing seconds. That drive was directed by Brett Hundley, who was 8 of 15 for 90 yards in one half of action. Hundley figures to start again here as Rodgers' only preseason action will come next week (no reason to risk injury). Hundley should do fine. But I'm a little more intrigued by the battle for the 3rd string job, between Joe Callahan and Taysom Hill. Callahan had a great preseason last year and was the leading passer last week. Hill came in late and directed a touchdown drive. It's unlikely the Pack will keep 4 QB's on its Opening Day roster, so both of those two are going to go all out to impress the coaching staff. Cousins was in for two series last week, both three and outs. In fact, the Redskins' offense gained just 47 total yds on its first 27 plays. You know that HC Jay Gruden is going to be looking for more in this second game. Fortunately, Green Bay's tackling last week left a lot to be desired. Washington's defensive performance last week also was not that great. They gave up 23 pts despite Ryan Mallett throwing for only 58 yards in the first half. That's not good. Green Bay has now gone Under in all five preseason games the last two seasons. They're the only team in the league w/o an Over during that stretch. That streak comes to an end Saturday night in the Nation's capital. 8* Over Packers/Redskins | |||||||
08-19-17 | Indians -130 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:15 ET): Despite having just played a doubleheader the day before, the Indians had no problem with a rested Royals team on Friday, winning 10-1 in the opener of a three-game set. It was the Tribe's seventh win in the last eight games, most of them blowouts, as we're (finally) starting to see them pull away in the American League Central. If you're a regular client of mine, then you read several weeks ago how I predicted that Cleveland would start to do just that. Though the gap between them and the rest of the division remains at a modest six games, the Indians are significantly better than the field. That's confirmed by the fact they are +128 in run differential (4th best in MLB) and no other AL Central team even has outscored its opponents this year. Despite being a game over .500, the Royals are -26 in run diff and I see another big win for the division leader today. KC had no answer for Corey Kluber last night, managing just the one run on six hits off him in 5 1/3 IP. Even Kluber leaving early (ankle injury) couldn't do the Royals any good. Of course, Kluber isn't the only reason that Cleveland leads the American League in the runs allowed side of the ledger (bodes well moving forward). They have MLB's top bullpen (in terms of ERA) and a starting rotation that is now at full strength. Tonight it will be Trevor Bauer going as he looks to make it five straight quality starts. Last time out, despite giving up 3 HR's (all solo shots), Bauer beat Boston as he struck out 11 and didn't give up any more runs. The Royals are hardly an offensive juggernaut as they rank 21st in runs scored and 27th in on base percentage. Last night saw the Indians lineup hand Ian Kennedy his shortest start since May. Tonight, they face Jason Vargas. While Vargas has pitched well against Cleveland in the past, overall we're talking about a pitcher that has struggled recently. Since the start of July, he's pitched seven times. Three of those he's allowed 6 ER. Cleveland's offense has started to wake up w/ 19 runs scored the last two games and while they're a hot team, KC is just the opposite as they've dropped 13 of 20 including 8 of 12. They are 4-6 after allowing 10+ runs in their previous game this season and Cleveland remains a deadly road team at 36-26 overall w/ just 3.9 runs per game allowed. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
08-19-17 | Mariners v. Rays -109 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): The Rays have now let me down each of the last two days, but here is where the slump will end. Last night's 7-1 loss means they have even more revenge to exact against the Mariners as the home team came into this series already looking a for a little "payback" for a three-game sweep they suffered out in Safeco Field back in early June. The chase for the second Wild Card spot in the American League remains very wide open w/ eight teams separated by only three games. Only one of the eight (Texas) currently has a positive run differential. So I reject the notion that Seattle is somehow significantly better here or even "matches up well" with Tampa Bay. Rather we have two comparable teams and I'll again try w/ the one that's at home and this time should enjoy a nice edge in the starting pitching department. The Rays' offense has admittedly been dreadful of late. They've managed only 24 runs in the last 14 games and six of those came in one game, their last win, which was Tuesday. But perhaps facing Ariel Miranda might begin to reverse their fortune at the plate? The Seattle starter checks in w/ an 8.21 ERA and 1.565 WHIP his L3 starts and he's allowed 4+ ER in all but one of his L6 starts. Last time out, Miranda had some major control issues as he walked six batters in a 4-2 loss to the Angels. Furthermore, the long ball has given him some trouble as he's allowed 8 HR's total his L4 starts. While he tossed a complete game against the Rays two months ago, remember that was at home. On the road, he has an ERA of 6.25 and a WHIP of 1.407. The fact that his TSR is 8-4 away from home should be considered very lucky. In yday's analysis, I spoke of the notion that TB's production w/ RISP is bound to start moving to the mean. Over those L24 games, Rays' hitters are now an almost unfathomable 8 for 84 (.095!) when they have RISP! Kevin Kiermaier returned to the lineup last night, batting leadoff, and while it made little difference, I expect that to change moving forward. Kiermaier is also a difference-maker in the field. On the mound, the Rays will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, who is off a quality start as he held Toronto to just two runs and three hits in 6 IP on Sunday. Odorizzi was tagged for eight runs when he faced Seattle two months ago, but five of the runs were unearned. Since the All-Star Break, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in every start. Sure, he hasn't always pitched deep into games, but that's okay considering how the Rays' bullpen has performed recently. Following three or more losses, the team is 9-4 this season. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-19-17 | Montreal v. Toronto -1.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
10* Toronto (4:00 ET): For the second week in a row, these Eastern Division rivals meet. Last week, it was in Montreal and the Alouettes prevailed 21-9 as 7.5-pt favorites. As you can tell from that final score, it was a game dominated by the Als defense, which is giving up the fewest number of points per game in the East (2nd overall, behind Calgary). But something else that needs to be mentioned here is that Argos' QB Ricky Ray didn't play last week. He'll return Saturday and this time the game will be played at BMO Field in Toronto. Ray's return is critical, as you can tell from how the line has swung for this rematch. Despite not playing at all last wk, Ray is still 2nd in the the league in passing yards and has thrown for 300+ in every game he's finished so far. He is # 1 in the league w/ 25 pass completions of 20+ yards. Lay the very short number here. Ray went down two weeks ago, in the second half vs. Calgary, a game the Argos lost 41-24. Thus last week marked the end of a very consistent stretch for this offense, one that had seen them score between 24 and 27 points for five consecutive weeks. The Eastern Division, as per usual, seems to be weak with Montreal currently leading Toronto by one-half game in the standings. Both teams are currently below .500. So a win here would actually put the Argos in first place despite them being w/o their starting QB for the last game and a half. Also adding to the importance is the fact Toronto has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games. They desperately need some momentum and I think Ray's return provides that. The Montreal defense is strong, but it's the team's strong suit almost by default as the offense has scored 21 pts or fewer in five of seven games this year. As Saskatchewan showed last week, exacting revenge can sometimes be easy. One week after losing at B.C. 30-15, the Rough Riders whipped the Leos 41-8 at home. That's the blueprint I'm following here and it should be pointed out that the Als are just 3-8 ATS their L11 times off a SU win. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-18-17 | Calgary v. BC UNDER 56.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Calgary/B.C. (10:30 ET): Two of the CFL's top three teams collide tonight in Western Canada with the 5-3 Lions hosting the 5-1-1 Stampeders. Both teams are chasing first place Edmonton, who just lost for the first time last night (at Winnipeg). That loss actually put the Bombers into second place, so whomever loses here will really be "up against it" in a Western Division that seems more loaded than ever. You may be surprised to find the Stamps favored on the road here, but they actually own the league's best point differential and are off a bye. But even though they've scored 101 pts the past two games, I have zero interest in laying this number of points on the road. Therefore, we turn to the total. Let's go Under. Calgary is #1 in the league in points per game (36.3), but has scored 31 pts or fewer in four of seven games. Their scoring average is greatly aided by the 60-1 rout of Hamilton that took place three weeks ago. They are also #1 in points allowed as three times they've given up 10 points or fewer. I expect the Stamps' defensive line, led by Charleston Hughes (six sacks already) to dominate this game. Last week saw B.C.'s offensive line get owned by a Saskatchewan front that isn't anywhere close to as talented as what they'll see today. The Leos are looking to rebound from a dismal showing last week where they were blown out 41-8 by the Rough Riders. Obviously, we should expect them to score more this week, but HC Wally Bueno seems to have a decision to make at QB w/ both Jonathan Joseph and Travis Lulay struggling. There were six turnovers last week and like I said earlier, the defense they'll face here is much stingier. But I think a big key here is the fact that the Leos are a perfect 3-0 Under this season when the total is 55 pts or higher. Also, the Under is 5-1 the past six meetings here in B.C.. Make it six out of seven after tonight. 10* Under Calgary/B.C. | |||||||
08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:00 ET): Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer has found great success this time of year. Not only did his Vikings win LW, 17-10 at Buffalo, but they swept all four preseason games LY as well. He now carries a 12-2 SU/ATS record in preseason affairs into tonight's date w/ Seattle, but may have met his match in Seahawks HC Pete Carroll, who is now 19-9 ATS in the preseason after his team destroyed the Chargers LW, 48-17. Tonight is the Seahawks home debut, which always carries at least a little extra motivation and last week's performance - even w/ the backups in - showed me that Carroll's team isn't messing around. Lay the points. Thanks in large part to the backups, the Seahawks rolled to a 48-17 win last week w/ a 458-322 edge in total yards. They also forced four turnovers. The backups being able to score so much is certainly encouraging. While the overall depth here might not be what it was in the team's Super Bowl season, Seattle remains one of the "teams to beat" in the NFC coming into 2017 and they certainly are in the position Minnesota wishes it was. I was encouraged by what I saw from Seahawks backup QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 189 yards. We're likely to see more of RB Eddie Lacy tonight as Thomas Rawls suffered a "minor" ankle injury last week. Chris Carson has also looked good in training camp. Minnesota may have won last week, but did so despite being outgained by 67 yards. They managed just a field goal in the 1st half, a far cry from the 34 points Seattle put on the board in the 1H against the Chargers. To me, this Vikings team will continue to remain "average at best" as long as Sam Bradford remains the QB. I think replacing Adrian Peterson w/ rookie Dalvin Cook will end up as a net positive, but still the team barely gained 3.0 YPC last week against Buffalo. Finishing w/ only 152 yds passing isn't very impressive either, especially considering the majority of it came w/ third stringer Case Keenum in the game. I expect the Vikings offense to struggle again here and Zimmer to suffer a rare preseason defeat. 8* Seattle | |||||||
08-18-17 | Brewers v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Two playoff hopefuls will meet at Coors Field this weekend and while Milwaukee comes in having won four straight (and is the more "desperate" team), I give the edge to Colorado. As always, the Rockies are leading MLB in runs scored in home games and as a result they've gone 37-23 here. The Brew Crew started its week by sweeping Pittsburgh in a short two-game set at home before having yday off. But let us not be quick to forget that at this time last week, they were mired in a long losing streak, one that would reach six games before B2B wins over the lowly Reds. They got to play their last seven games at home - all against sub-.500 foes - and I think they'll find the Rockies to be pretty rude hosts this weekend; certainly tonight. The Rockies did play yday and got embarrassed (here at home), losing to Atlanta 10-4. But that came a day after a 17-2 win, remember. While their record is sub-par after allowing 10+ runs this year, I nevertheless see this as a big bounce back spot. Yes, I'm aware that Nolan Arenado seemed to reinjure his hand yday (X-rays turned out to be negative), but I just don't think you can keep an offense which averages 6.2 rpg at home down for long. Certainly not w/ Matt Garza on the mound. Milwaukee's starter for Friday has a 7.54 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts and his career numbers here in Coors Field are certainly an even bigger concern. Garza has started three times here, lost every time, and his ERA is 8.82. His recent ground ball/fly ball and KW rates are certainly a reason for concern coming into tonight's game. Colorado will counter w/ German Marquez, who is certainly more comfortable pitching in this environment. In fact, he has a 7-2 TSR at home and a 1.278 WHIP. He's coming off his worst start of the second half, but I fully anticipate him bouncing back as prior to allowing five runs in Miami last week, Marquez had delivered SIX consecutive quality outings! These teams have not met since the 1st series of the year when Colorado took three of four at Miller Park. That set the tone for this surprising season from the Rockies, who are still #2 in net units (behind the Dodgers obviously) and fighting to host the NL Wild Card game come October. Milwaukee is actually third in net units, but they are also just 6-10 when riding a win streak of 3+ games. 8* Colorado | |||||||
08-18-17 | Mariners v. Rays -125 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Certainly, it has not been a good stretch of baseball for the Rays, who find themselves rapidly sinking in the wide open chase for that second Wild Card in the American League. They held the coveted position at the All-Star Break, but have gone just 13-20 since then and have lost six of their last seven. After a four-game stay in Toronto (went 1-3), tonight they return home to face similarly slumping Seattle and will have revenge on their mind for a three-game sweep that took place at Safeco Field back in early June. Before beating Baltimore each of the L2 days, the Mariners had lost five in a row themselves and while this is a .500 team (61-61), they've actually been outscored by a slightly wider margin this year than have the Rays. The road has been particularly unkind to tonight's starter Erasmo Ramirez. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Rays Thurs afternoon. They were tied w/ Toronto 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth, which is when they allowed a two-run HR to Justin Smoak. It was a very disappointing loss in the sense that they actually outhit the Jays (11-6), but ended up stranding 14 runners on base. I did mention how offense (or rather lack of it!) has been a concern for this club of late as the last 13 games have seen them score only 23 runs while being shutout FIVE different times! That's obviously not good, but hope could be on the horizon in the form of the pitcher they face this evening. As mentioned above, Erasmo Ramirez has really struggled on the road this year as he's winless in five starts to go along w/ a 10.35 ERA and 1.950 WHIP. Not only did Tampa Bay lose close yday, but before that their previous three losses had all come by one-run margins. So they're "due" for some good fortune to go their way, at least in my estimation. Masked by the poor offensive performance is the fact that their bullpen has been outstanding this month, in particular Steve Cishek, who ironically came to the team from Seattle in a trade that included Ramirez! While Ramirez will be motivated here, his road struggles are too pronounced to overcome. TB counters w/ Austin Pruitt, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in his L3 starts. Take away one bad showing at Yankee Stadium on 7.28 and Pruitt has allowed only four runs in 20 IP this year. He's had to go up against some brutal competition recently, namely Dallas Keuchel, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber (all former Cy Young winners!), so dueling w/ Ramirez should be a "walk in the park" for him. I have to believe that the Rays hitting is bound to improve, specifically their horrid .105 mark w/ RISP (8 for 76) those L23 games. As you may now, a team's batting average when RISP will always tend to float back towards the mean. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-18-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Pirates +1.5. The Bucs really let me down last night by blowing a 5-1 lead and losing 11-7. The blame - pretty clearly - lies at the feet of the bullpen for that one, specifically Joaquin Benoit, who has really struggled here since coming over from Philadelphia via trade. Note that Pittsburgh had the same # of hits as the Cards did yday (15), but did themselves no favors leaving the bases loaded in the sixth and then two RISP in the seventh. Perhaps predictably, the ML has "flipped" for tonight's game as the home team now finds itself as the underdog after drawing some serious action for yday's series opener. I'll take advantage of that by going w/ the RL as I see the Bucs doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Remember that St. Louis came into this series as losers of three straight. They'll have Carlos Martinez on the hill tonight and while he does rank in the Top 10 in ERA, strikeouts and opposing batting average among all NL starters, note that the team has gone only 12-12 in his 24 starts. Though he's off B2B quality outings, those came against Kansas City and Atlanta, two light-hitting teams. Martinez is also particularly susceptible to 1st inning meltdowns as he's allowed 18 ER in the first frame this season. He's faced Pittsburgh once this year, and while he pitched well (allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP), the team lost - by a single run. The Cardinals have played 41 one-run games this year, 2nd most overall, so that's yet another reason to gravitate towards the RL tonight. Pittsburgh has now lost five in a row and finds themselves four games back of the Cards plus 5.5 back of the first place Cubs. They had gotten back to .500 before this losing streak began. But after a seven-game road trip, they're back home now and that should suit Friday starter Trevor Williams well as he's posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.064 WHIP here at PNC Park. His last time pitching here, he allowed just a single hit in seven innings of shutout ball. Another thing to like about Williams is that he is not very prone to giving up home runs. He's allowed just two in his previous 11 starts. Williams was actually the one who beat Martinez back on 7.16, allowing only two runs. He's never lost to the Cardinals in four all-time appearances, posting a solid 3.50 ERA. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5) | |||||||
08-17-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates -135 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Both of these NL Central rivals are reeling as they start a critical weekend set in the Steel City. St. Louis was as hot as any team in baseball (won 8 straight from 8.5 - 8.12), but that changed once they had to deal w/ the Red Sox, who beat them both Tuesday and Wednesday. Last night was particularly painful as they blew a four-run lead, giving up three runs in the ninth. As for the Pirates, they've now lost four in a row after getting swept in a short two-game set at Milwaukee. Tonight marks a return home though after a seven-game trip that also saw them have to play in two unfamiliar, American League venues. Alarms were set off for me in this series opener as there's been a key line move on the Bucs, who I'll back here. Adam Wainwright has been getting it done for many years now in the Cards rotation and he comes into tonight having allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts. He's won his last five decisions. But that WL record is a tad bit misleading when you consider Wainwright has lasted a total of just eight innings his L2 starts, posting a 1-8 KW ratio (not a misprint!). He also has not pitched well - at all - on the road this season. Despite a 6-5 TSR, he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.666 WHIP away from Busch Stadium. So he should be thankful to have that team start record and really the fact that the team is 14-8 in all of his starts this year seems pretty fortunate considering his numbers. He also didn't throw a single pitch above 90 MPH his last time out due to elbow soreness. Speaking of fortunate, Wainwright is 13-7 all-time vs. Pittsburgh (29 starts) despite a 4.11 ERA. In 16 games at PNC Park, his ERA is 5.23. Pittsburgh also blew a four-run lead yday, losing 7-6 to Milwaukee. They outhit the Brewers and benefited from two errors, but the long ball (FIVE Brew Crew HR's!) doomed them. Fortunately, tonight's starter Jameson Taillon has allowed a home run in only three of his past 11 starts and just four total during that time. Taillon beat Wainwright back on 6.23 after allowing just two runs on four hits. He wasn't as sharp against the Cards last month here at home, but his offense also failed to score for him that day. It's been B2B quality starts from Taillon, who has allowed just 4 ER in 12 1/3 IP and his KW ratio (15-3) is far superior to that of Wainwright. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-17-17 | Rays -154 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -154 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): The Rays entered the All-Star Break sitting in pole position for that second Wild Card in the American League. By no means was that race over though and sure enough, it is now wide open as not only have they struggled in the 2nd half, but a bevy of teams have also stepped up. Right now, they are two games below .500, which fortunately only has them 2.5 games back (of the Angels). They've lost two of three so far here in Toronto, but thankfully will have Chris Archer on the bump for this afternoon's finale. The Jays may now be just a game back of TB, but their playoff chances remain slim in my opinion as they'd have to jump SIX teams! Also, their YTD run differential is -78, third worst in the A.L., indicating that they're fortunate to even be sniffing .500. I like Archer and the Rays to leave the Great White North w/ a series split. Coming into the year, I felt Archer was poised for a big bounce back from a disappointing 2016. He finished dead last in net units (-15.6), but I rightly felt that was not indicative of the pitcher's overall skill set. Sure enough, Archer enjoyed plenty of success early on in '17, though his team start record his L6 starts is just 2-4. That said, he's still managed to allow 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts and last time out marked the 1st time in the L15 starts he didn't make it a full six innings. He's got a 3.13 lifetime ERA vs. Toronto and his last time pitching here at Rogers Centre (4.30) saw him allow just one run and four hits, in 7 1/3 IP. In three starts vs. the Jays this year, he's allowed just six runs in 21 IP, but has yet to factor into any decision. Admittedly, Archer may have to be at his best today b/c the Rays simply are not hitting much. They've scored two runs or less in 8 of the past 12 games, going just 3-9. They've been shutout five times during this stretch. Last night's 3-2 loss saw them strand nine runners on base though as they went 0 for 6 w/ RISP. This slump can't go on forever though and I see the potential for them breaking out here against Chris Rowley, who will be making just his 2nd career start. The West Point (Army) grad got to face a National League lineup (Pirates) in his first start and allowed just one run in 5 1/3 IP. Dealing w/ an AL lineup here, I expect things to be a bit more challenging. To me, a real key in handicapping this matchup is that despite Toronto's winning record at home (32-29), they have actually been outscored somewhat significantly here. In fact, only three teams have been outscored by a larger rpg average at home than have the Jays. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-16-17 | Reds v. Cubs -192 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Reds upset the Cubs last night, 2-1 (as +145 ML underdogs), in a game where all the scoring took place in the eighth inning or later. I don't see that happening two days in a row. As you may have guessed, the Cubs have generally had the Reds' number in recent years, winning 35 of the past 49 meetings. They may be only 7-4 against their NL Central rival this year, yet it's still a sizable 13 game edge in the standings. Cincinnati is the lone team out of contention in the division and is one of just five teams in baseball to have been outscored by over 100 runs over the course of the season. The money line is higher tonight, significant because the Reds are 1-9 as a road underdog of +175 or higher. As you probably know, the Cubs' season has largely been considered a disappointment. They're bottom three in net units (-19.3), but remember that any/all disappointnnent and the poor performance at the betting window is a direct result of being measured against LY's incredible level of play. Here in the 2nd half of the season, our reigning World Series Champs have generally "turned it around" as they closed July on a 13-3 run. Success w/ John Lackey on the hill goes back even further. The team has won each of Lackey's L6 starts. He'll be on the mound tonight. In all of those last 6 starts, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer. Let's not forget that the Cubs won Monday's series opener, 15-5, either. The Reds will counter Lackey w/ veteran Homer Bailey. How is this guy still drawing a paycheck? He has an 8.31 ERA and 2.035 WHIP in his 10 starts this year. Somehow, the team has managed to win four of those, including two of the last three despite comparable numbers to the season. He was bailed out by his offense in an 11-10 win over Milwaukee his last time out and the start before that saw him get hammered for 10 runs in just 3 1/3 IP. It was his third time in the last six starts giving up at least seven runs. Let's also be sure to note the fact that the Reds' run differential is -1.3 per game on the road. That's tied for 2nd worst in all of baseball and they are tied for the MOST runs per game allowed. Yes, this is every bit the mismatch you think it is. 6* Chi Cubs | |||||||
08-15-17 | Indians -166 v. Twins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:10 ET): This will be the Tribe's third city in three days (Tampa Bay, Boston), but don't think that will bother them as they've been rolling w/ four straight wins, including 7-3 in Fenway Park (make-up game) Monday night. Prior to that, they'd won three in a row in Tampa, including two shutouts. The pitching staff is now at full strength w/ Danny Salazar back in the fold and that is who will pitch Tuesday in Minnesota. This is a revenge spot for the Indians, who were swept last month (at home) by the Twins. But, curiously, Cleveland has been better on the road this year as their record is 33-25 and they've outscored foes by 0.6 rpg. The Twins, meanwhile, have been a horrid home team as they've been outscored by a full run per game, going 27-33. Cleveland is actually a perfect 7-0 here at Target Field this season! These teams have played 12 times in 2017 and the road team has won 11 of them. Maybe that's not too surprising considering both teams have better records on the road than at home. The Twins have the worst home run differential in the American League as they're giving up an average of 5.7 runs per game. That's easily the most in all of baseball. Strange as it may be to hear, there actually appears to be a "road team advantage" in this AL Central rivalry. Salazar has a 1.96 ERA his L3 starts. Sadly, the team has lost the last two times he's taken the mound, but don't blame the pitcher for that. He's allowed just two runs and has 20 K's in 12 1/3 IP. Since returning to the rotation, he's allowed only FOUR runs in 25 1/3 IP and has 36 IP. Those are really good numbers, obviously. Earlier this year, Salazar beat Minnesota (here at Targe Field, of course) by allowing just one run in six innings. Pitching opposite him today will be veteran Bartolo Colon. The portly southpaw broke in w/ Cleveland two decades ago and while he's enjoyed a successful career, he's no longer the pitcher he once was. Yes, he did throw seven shutout innings his last time out and a complete game before that, but he has a 6.77 ERA and 1.622 WHIP for the year (18 starts) and given all that I've told you so far, it should not come as a surprise to see the numbers get WORSE at home. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
08-15-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -114 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Last month (7/17-7/20), the Pirates swept a four-game series from the Brewers. That seemed to signal a renaissance for the Bucs, who at the time had climbed back to .500. But their mediocre string of baseball has instead continued as they're now back two games below (.500) and in fourth place of the wide open NL Central. Compared to the three teams above them, their run differential is clearly inferior as it's "in the red" (negative) whereas the other three teams have all outscored the opposition this season. One of them is obviously Milwaukee, who spent much of the year in first place. But getting swept by the Bucs signaled a clear downturn here as they're 9-18 their L27 games. But I like the revenge angle here in this short two-game set and following B2B wins, feel the Brew Crew may be back on track. Milwaukee had lost six in a row prior to beating Cincinnati both Saturday and Sunday. The offense definitely woke up against the Reds, scoring 23 times in the three games. That's a good sign going up against the Pirates' Ivan Nova, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Nova was hit hard, giving up six runs and 10 hits. While it would be easy to blame that performance on being in an AL park, Nova had also allowed 4+ ER his previous three starts and two of those were against San Diego, the worst offensive team in the sport. When he faced Milwaukee last month, part of that four-game sweep, obviously Nova won. But he also was lucky to give up only three runs as he allowed 10 hits over the six innings. Pitching here for Milwaukee will be Zach Davies. He too was terrible his last time out, giving up seven runs and 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. But the difference between he and Nova was that Davies has been pitching well previously. In fact, "well" would be putting it mildly. It was four consecutive quality starts, going seven innings or more every time and he allowed just four runs TOTAL. He had gone 6-1 w/ a 2.38 ERA in his eight starts prior to the last one. Davies did pitch in the last series between these teams and pitched well, giving up just one run (unearned) in 7 IP. I'm a big believer in the revenge angle here and Milwaukee has simply been better at home this year. They also have the better starter. Add it up and it's a win! 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
08-15-17 | Giants -106 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (7:10 ET): In what's been a disastrous season for the team, Madison Bumgarner has had either "no" or "bad" luck. Despite a 2.71 ERA and 1.025 WHIP, he has a 2-8 TSR. One of those wins did come last time out however as he allowed only five hits in 7 IP and one run - on a solo HR. Over his L3 starts, he has a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP, having given up three runs and just 15 hits in 21 IP. While he missed three full months this season due to a dirtbike accident, Bumgarner has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his 10 starts. I feel he should extend that streak here against a Marlins team that is prime fade material right now off four straight wins. The Giants also have revenge, not just for last night, but for a three-game sweep that occurred right before the All-Star Break. Giancarlo Stanton homered again last night (43rd, team record) in Miami's 8-3 win. It was a 3-3 game after three innings, but from there the Giants didn't score again while the Marlins added five more. Incredibly, Stanton has now hit 22 times in the last 34 games. But like his team's recent bout of success, I do not believe that to be sustainable. Prior to last night's win, Miami was just 2-8 this year when on a win streak of three games or more. The Fish have been outscored at home this year and their longest win streak of the year is four games - so winning again would be "foreign territory." Dan Straily will start today for Miami. Like Bumgarner, he's pitched better than the team start record suggests, just not as well as Bumgarner. The Marlins have lost each of the past six times Straily has started and he's failed to make it past the sixth inning in any of the starts. Personally, he's gone 0-4 w/ a 5.17 ERA during the span. The only issue Bumgarner has faced is a lack of run support w/ the Giants scoring one run or less in half of his starts. I project they'll fare far better against Straily tonight and thus beat the Marlins for the 1st time in '17. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
08-14-17 | Orioles -112 v. Mariners | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (10:10 ET): In the American League, there are four clear top teams - Houston, Cleveland, Boston and the Yankees. All have run differentials of +90 or higher. But - as you know - FIVE teams make the playoffs per league and it is that 5th spot that's WIDE open right now in the AL. Really, only three teams - Oakland, the White Sox and Detroit - should consider themselves out of that race. Everybody else (7 teams!) is separated by just four games entering play on Monday. Two of those teams face off here as both Baltimore and Seattle look to bounce back from disappointing weekends. The Orioles are 3-4 on their current West Coast swing (lost in Oakland yday) and their 58-60 record is somewhat misleading in that they've been outscored this year by 49 runs. But there's no sugarcoating just how disastrous the weekend was here in Seattle as the Mariners were swept by the division rival Angels (4 games) and lost James Paxton to injury in the process. I like the pitching matchup from the O's perspective today and think they'll take the series opener. Sure, Seattle outhit the Angels each of the past two games, but they managed runs only in the 1st and 9th innings yday and the bullpen was just awful throughout the series. You should figure to see the bullpen pretty early tonight given Yovani Gallardo is starting. Gallardo has gone five innings or fewer in four of his last five starts and the one exception saw him go just 5 2/3. Looking back through his season, there's been just ONE time all season where the M's won a game w/ Gallardo on the mound where they scored fewer than six runs. Given recent offensive production, we are highly unlikely to see them score six runs tonight. Meanwhile, the Baltimore offense is near the top of the league in scoring since the All-Star Break. That's bad news for Gallardo, who already has a 6.61 ERA and 1.573 WHIP when pitching here at Safeco Field. Kevin Gausman goes for the Orioles here and he's been in good form lately. Well, his last start saw him give up four runs, but he'd only allowed two in the four starts prior. Other than his 3 HR's allowed in those L5 starts, Gausman has allowed just two runs in 27 IP. He has a 3.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle has played very poorly at home at times this season and right now is definitely one of those times. With a struggling starter, a struggling bullpen and an offense that managed just 13 runs in the L4 games, the M's just don't have a lot to "lean on" here. 10* Baltimore | |||||||
08-14-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -180 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Francisco (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Francisco split a doubleheader yday, losing the nightcap, which went 11 innings. Thus, you may think that having to go down to Miami on Monday is a bad spot, but the run line could end up being the great equalizer here. Furthermore, I think this is an excellent spot to fade the Marlins, who are off a surprising sweep of the Rockies over the weekend. The Giants have revenge here for a three-game sweep that took place (at home) right before the All-Star Break. The Marlins aren't really a team to be feared and they're just 2-8 this year when on a win streak of three games or more. They've been outscored at home. Yes, the Nationals were w/o Bryce Harper, but I thought the Giants' pitching staff turned in somewhat of a yeoman's effort Sunday. They held MLB's top offense to only four runs in 19 innings before losing on a walk-off grand slam. In the first game, Washington didn't even get a runner into scoring position until the seventh inning. Certainly, skipper Bruce Bochy is hoping for a repeat of that w/ today's starter, Ty Blach, who has been one of the few positive surprises in this lost season by the Bay. Blach has made three consecutive quality starts (2.45 ERA), allowing only six runs in 22 IP. The team has won each of his L2 starts, one as a +175 dog against the Cubs. Going back further, Blach has a 5-2 TSR his L7 starts (2.98 ERA), six of those being quality. One of the two losses was certainly excusable as he was a +255 ML dog against the Dodgers. That game was decided by only one run as well, one of the Giants' 35 games decided by one run this season (5th most in MLB). Miami counters w/ Adam Conley, who is off B2B bad outings. Last time out, he gave up five runs and 11 hits - in just 5 IP - which was his worst performance since rejoining the rotation after the All-Star Break. Conley has not pitched particularly well at home as he has an 8.28 ERA and 1.599 WHIP here in five starts. The Marlins' sweep of Colorado over the weekend was a bit surprising, but consider the Rockies are just 35-64 all-time here on South Beach. Giancarlo Stanton continues to be ridiculous, but has to slow down at some point, right? The visitors do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers -1.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:00 ET): We all know the NFL preseason carries little importance, but from the Chargers' perspective, this 1st game probably has some meaning. It's their first game in their new market and thus the first chance for HC Anthony Lynn (1st year HC!) to impress the fanbase. We saw a 1st year HC win his home debut last night (Rams' Sean McVay). I believe we'll see the same here. The Lightning Bolts have a lot to prove coming into 2017. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for Seattle, a perennial contender that just wants to get the regular season healthy. Lay the short number. I'm going on the record right now, stating the Chargers will be vastly improved this year. Yes, I said the same last year and while they technically improved (4 to 5 wins), it was quite neglible. But now with a new coach and in a new market, a far larger jump in the standings could be forthcoming. Really, how could it not? Over the last two seasons, they have a mind-numbing 11 blown fourth quarter leads while ranking among the most injured teams in the sport. They were 1-8 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. Their Pythagorean win expectation for last year was actually 7.7. All of the above factors clearly point to upward mobility this year because, if anything, we know these metrics will tend to always regress/progress to the mean. QB Philip Rivers is set to play one series tonight while the rest of the team's starters may play two. One key for Rivers is that - despite a new head coach - there is some continuity on the coaching staff as Ken Whisenhunt was retained as the OC. On the Seattle side, there's a number of injuries, mostly at wide receiver w/ Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett both out tonight. I just think this is a very important spot for a 1st year HC, in front of a new fanbase, and the line move seems to agree with me. This game means nothing to Seattle; the Chargers need to get the season started on a positive note. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
08-13-17 | Angels v. Mariners -126 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:10 ET): Needless to say, this has not been a positive series for the Mariners. Not only have they dropped all three games so far (even after drawing heavy action yday), but they lost their best pitcher (James Paxton) to the DL as well. The end result is that they are now a game behind the Angels for the American League's second Wild Card chase, a race that figures to go down to the wire as only a handful of teams can really be considered "out of it." The embarrassment of suffering a four-game sweep at home now looms, but I'll call for the M's to avoid it, even though they're facing the red-hot Parker Bridwell. I'm higher on the Halos long-term, but today should be Seattle's day as I still have the teams rated fairly evenly. The Angels came into this series just 24-32 on the road. But they've scored six runs in every game w/ 13 of the 18 runs total coming at the expense of the Mariners' bullpen. Last night's game was particularly cruel from the Seattle perspective as they actually outhit the Angels, 13-8, and had a 3-1 lead entering the seventh. BUt that was when the bullpen began to meltdown, allowing five runs over the next two innings. The previous night saw the M's blow a 5-1 lead, again allowing LA to score five times after the 7th. Thursday's game (6-3 final) was won w/ a three-run top of the ninth. So, needless to say, all three of these games could have gone either way; it just so happens none of them went to the home team. I think this one will, however, if for no other season than Seattle is simply "due" some better fortune. Some sharp line movement here seems to confirm my intuition. Parker Bridwell has been a revelation for the Angels rotation as he comes in w/ a 10-1 TSR and has won four consecutive starts. However, that one time the Angels lost w/ him on the mound happened to come against Seattle back on June 30th as he allowed five runs on 11 hits (6 IP), both season-worsts. On the other hand, Seattle's Ariel Miranda comes in struggling as he's winless over his L6 starts and has a 7.02 ERA in the last three. But ... he's pitched well in the past against the Angels, going 4-0 w/ a 2.61 ERA. Two of those wins have come this season w/ the last one seeing him toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. The Mariners have outscored the Angels 21-3 in those two Miranda starts this year. It may not be that lopsided this go-around, but considering the M's are 9-5 this year when on a losing streak of 3+ games, it will be a win nonetheless. 8* Seattle | |||||||
08-13-17 | Astros -142 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
10* Houston (3:05 ET): What in the world is going on w/ the Astros right now? The best team in the American League all season long has all of sudden dropped five straight, all on the road. Getting swept in Chicago (by the White Sox!) was downright shocking and now they've lost two straight here in Arlington where the Rangers are desperately trying to remain relevant in the Wild Card chase. Here is where the Astros' losing streak comes to an end, however. First off, let us not forget how truly special this team has been in '17, particularly away from home. They are 38-20 and have outscored opponents by nearly TWO full runs per game. Their 6.6 rpg scoring average is more than a full run higher than the next best team. Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound this afternoon and I can't see him being beaten a second time this week. Texas is fascinating case study in regression this year. Coming into the season, I fully expected them to not win as many games as they did in 2016. Winning 95 games a season ago was highly misleading when you consider they outscored opponents by only eight runs. They were paced by a historically great (and lucky) 36-11 record in one-run games. This season currently finds them at 56-59, even though their run differential (+11) is actually better than it was last season! The difference? They've gone 10-18 in one-run games. They've been impressive in this series so far, scoring 14 runs in two games, but I can't see them sweeping the Astros, not w/ Keuchel on the mound. The Rangers' own starter, Andrew Cashner, was scratched from his last start due to a stiff neck. While he's pitched well over the last two months, Cashner has not fared well this season against the Astros, losing all three times he's faced them w/ a 6.19 ERA. Keuchel had a won-loss record of 9-0 back on June 2nd, which was the day he threw six scoreless innings against Texas. It was also the day he landed on the DL for a second time in '17. Since returning, he has not looked like the same pitcher, particularly his last time out where he allowed EIGHT runs to the White Sox in an embarrassing loss as a -250 ML favorite. I expect him to bounce back today, however. The team had won 11 of his 12 starts overall heading into August. The Astros are also 20-10 in day games this year. I can't see this Astros' losing streak, their longest of the season, continuing. 10* Houston | |||||||
08-13-17 | Indians -190 v. Rays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (1:10 ET): This sets up as a BRUTAL spot for Tampa Bay, coming off B2B shutouts and now having to face Corey Kluber. The Indians' ace should continue the trend of shutting the Rays' offense down here as he comes in w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP, both of which rank second in the American League. He's 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (183) and has fanned 11+ batters in five consecutive starts. The former Cy Young winner couldn't be in any better form coming into Sunday either as he's off B2B complete games where he allowed just one run on three hits each time. Overall, the Tribe has won the last four times he's taken the mound. Oh by the way, Tampa Bay has scored just eight runs total its last eight games and has been shutout FIVE times during that stretch. So, yes, I'd say this is a horrible matchup for the scuffling Rays, who are now .500 for the 1st time since June 16th. They did take Thursday's opener, 4-1, but since then they've failed to put a single run on the board. Carlos Carrasco took a no-hitter into the seventh on Friday night and last night saw Mike Clevinger outduel Chris Archer. Not only have the Rays not scored the L2 days, they have just seven hits! All five shutouts in the L8 games have been at home. In fact, 9 of their MLB-leading shutouts have taken place here at Tropicana Field. They're batting just .175 on the current homestand and have struck out 87 times. Those numbers make a matchup w/ Kluber appear to be downright frightening. Cleveland is #1 in runs allowed in the AL, by the way. The Rays will send Austin Pruitt to the hill Sunday afternoon. In his L2 starts, he's had to face Dallas Keuchel and Chris Sale and while he "lived to tell the story," even pitching quite well, I don't believe he'll be up to the task today. He was on the wrong end of one of those Rays' shutouts on Tuesday w/ Sale and the Red Sox beating him 2-0. With Kluber having allowed 1 or 0 ER in 8 of his last 10 starts, the margin for error here is very thin for Pruitt and I think it's right to question what he and the team will have left in the tank here. It's tough enough having to face Keuchel and Sale in B2B starts, now comes Kluber. Pruitt knows that run support here is likely to be minimal at best, so I see the Rays getting crushed here. The Indians lineup is already benefiting from the addition of Jay Bruce, who had 2 RBI's yday. 6* Cleveland | |||||||
08-12-17 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): This will be preseason game #2 for the Cardinals, who lost the Hall of Fame Game 20-18 to Dallas. While a loss, there's little takeaway from that game as none of the starters played. Honestly, if there was a takeaway, it was a positive one as QB Blaine Gabbert (much maligned most of his career) played well, engineering a pair of touchdown drives which got the Cards out to an early 15-0 lead (successful 2-pt conversion). Traditionally, coming off the H.O.F. Game has been an advantage in Game #2 as you're (obviously) playing an opponent that is only seeing "real" game action for the first time. There's been a sharp line move here and I agree w/ it. Lay the points. Spoiler alert: I will NOT be as high on Oakland as everyone else this season. Derek Carr leading a Silver and Black renaissance last year was a really nice story, but the team was extremely fortunate to go 8-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less while finishing tied (w/ KC) for the league's best turnover margin (+16). Carr is not as good as his fans would like you to believe. Of course, we shouldn't expect to see much of Carr tonight anyway. While Raiders' fans will be happy that their franchise signal caller is not in harm's way, they can also tell you how severe the drop off is beyond Carr at the position. Look no further than LY's Wild Card game at Houston where they were forced to start Connor Cook. Cook is still in the fold this year and figures to get the majority of the snaps tonight before giving way to the disaster that is EJ Manuel. Raiders HC Jack Del Rio (one of the game's best) is already on the record as saying he "isn't concerned" w/ seeing his front line players take the field tonight. That happens to include new RB Marshawn Lynch, who I believe will prove to be an overrated acquisition. Speaking of good coaches, Arizona's Bruce Arians is going to cede control of the playcalling in this game to QB coach Byron Leftwich, who is actually younger than starting QB Carson Palmer. People forget that at this time last season, Arizona was being talked about as a possible Super Bowl contender. They had a very disappointing 7-8-1 SU season, but I expect them to bounce back into playoff contention here in 2017. 8* Arizona | |||||||
08-12-17 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 | Top | 39-12 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 29 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Oh those poor Taibbis. Hamilton, still the league's only winless team, dropped to 0-6 last week w/ a 33-28 loss at Edmonton, who happens to be the league's only unbeaten. Mind you, it was a game effort (as the final score indicates) and the second time in three weeks that they've played the Eskimoes tough. Of course, everyone still remembers how the Ti-Cats got crushed two weeks ago at Calgary (lost 60-1!) and that loss combined w/ the winless record all but ensured they'd be a home dog in this spot. I said taking the points was the way to go last week (easily covered as DD dogs) and the same holds true here as Winnipeg is a team certanly unaccustomed to the role of road chalk. This should be Hamilton's 1st win of the season. Winnipeg is coming off B2B close wins, first over Montreal (41-40) and then LW at Ottawa (33-30). The defense has surrendered 40+ pts three times this season, yet the Bombers are somewhat surprisingly 4-2 SU w/ one of those losses coming against B.C., a game where they blew a huge lead. But the L2 wks it has been them pulling the rabbit out of the hat. First, they rallied back from a 40-28 deficit against the Als (w/ less than two minutes to go!) to win by one. Last week was more of the same as they found a way to score twice in the final five minutes at Ottawa, including a GW FG w/ no time remaining. Eventually, all the good fortune will catch up w/ them however and I can't see a team allowing 34.8 PPG continuing to win at this rate. They've actually been outscored in their six games. This will be just the third time this year that the Bombers have been favored. They're 1-1 ATS in that role so far, both games coming at home. While Hamilton is the only team allowing more points per game than Winnipeg, their number is skewed due to that one disastrous performance at Calgary two weeks ago. Keep in mind that the L4 wks have seen the Ti-Cats have to play the three top teams in the league, including Edmonton twice. QB Zach Collaros threw for a season-high 3 TD's last week (against a much better defense than he'll face here) and he's 3-0 SU all-time vs. the Bombers. Tonight marks just the third home game for Hamilton and they just changed defensive coordinators, so expect that unit to play w/ some fire. 10* Hamilton | |||||||
08-12-17 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton UNDER 60 | Top | 39-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Winnipeg/Hamilton (7:30 ET): This is a matchup of the two worst defenses - in terms of points allowed - in the league. But despite that, I'm going to "go out on a limb" and call for the game to be lower scoring than expected. The Over has been a good bet w/ both Winnipeg and Hamilton with the former going Over four straight games and the latter five straight. But the Ti-Cats just made a defensive coordinator change and that should lead to some inspired play on that side of the ball. They are last - by a mile - in points scored as well (at 19.7 per game). Take the Under. Winnipeg has been very fortunate to win each of the last two weeks. Both times they scored twice in the closing minutes to pull out victory from the jaws of defeat. Eventually, that good fortune will end though and this may just be the week. To date, they've faced a slate of far easier opponents than has Hamilton. Tonight's O/U line is also likely to close as the highest for any Bombers game this season, which is key. I realize they've been involved in plenty of shootouts thus far, but this game doesn't figure to be one of them. As I said earlier, the Ti-Cats are easily the lowest scoring team in the league. Their only chance at achieving victory tonight is in low-scoring game. This too figures to be their highest O/U line to date and in fact, by a pretty wide margin. The previous high was set LW (at 55.5) and that one didn't go Over until they scored a TD in the final three minutes. The last three meetings between these two have all stayed Under, none of them having an O/U line greater than 52.5. The Under has also cashed in 22 of Hamilton's last 30 home games. 8* Under Winnipeg/Hamilton | |||||||
08-12-17 | Royals -143 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (7:10 ET): After cashing the White Sox last night (as an underdog!), I'm switching courses here tonight and calling for the Royals to end their losing streak. Certainly, you don't expect to catch a team like the White Sox riding in on a four-game win streak very often. But they did sweep Houston (shocker!) to start the week before winning 6-3 last night. Meanwhile, KC has lost five in a row as they had the misfortune of running into the red-hot Cardinals in a home & home to start their week. I'm on record as calling the Royals "the very definition of average," but that works both ways as they're not as bad as they've been playing recently. Remember that they went on a 10-1 run near the end of July that included a three-game sweep of these White Sox. A big reason why I'm taking the Royals tonight is that I feel the starting pitching edge is strongly in their favor. They'll send Ian Kennedy out to the bump Saturday night and while he's struggled his past two starts (allowed 10 ER in 10 IP!), look for him to bounce back as before that the team had won seven of his eight starts w/ him allowing 3 ER or less in every victory. It's interesting that Kennedy has pitched better on the road this year as he's still winless at Kauffman Stadium! Among the four regulars in the Royals starting rotation, Kennedy actually has the best WHIP. Note that last night was a 2-2 game heading into the seventh. So, although I'm not afraid to "crow" over the victory, things easily could have gone the other way were it not for one big (four-run) inning from the White Sox. Chicago got a great start from the highly touted Reynaldo Lopez (one of the big reasons I was on them) last night. But tonight they'll have to rely on old James Shields, who has not been good of late w/ a 8.13 ERA his last six starts. He's also winless over that stretch. He now has an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.500 for the year. The long-ball has really hurt him of late as he's given up a total of 5 HR's in his L2 starts. Let's keep some perspective here, shall we? The White Sox are 23 games below .500 and had dropped 19 of 22 before the current win streak, which happens to be their longest since late April. With a team this bad, the good times won't last long. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
08-12-17 | Twins v. Tigers -104 | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:10 ET): Minnesota has all of a sudden won six straight games, including the series opener in Detroit last night, 9-4. Make no mistake about it, last night was a pretty complete effort, but the key was a big catch by CF Byron Buxton in the seventh when the Tigers had two men on. However, winning streak aside, I remain highly skeptical of these Twins. Yes, they've climbed back above .500 (58-56) and are now in pole position for the second Wild Card in the American League. But they've still been outscored by 51 runs this year and even though they've been one of the most profitable teams to bet on the road, their runs scored vs. allowed is basically even outside of Target Field. Jose Berrios pitches for them tonight and as a result, the line has moved in the Twins' direction. But I believe this sets up as a great value play on Detroit as I just don't have much faith in Minnesota continuing to win. The Tigers have been trending in the opposite direction of the Twins, losing six of their last seven games. Despite this, they actually still have the better YTD run differential of the two teams (-35). Also, recall that Detroit did get off to a strong start here in August by beating the Astros twice and then taking two of three at Yankee Stadium. It was a NL park (Pittsburgh) where the trouble began (lose DH) and that carried over into last night. Jordan Zimmerman toes the rubber on Saturday and despite having a high ERA/WHIP for the year, he's coming off three consecutive quality outings. Last time out, his offense forgot to score (in Pittsburgh). This will be only Zimmerman's second start at home since the Break, the first coming against Dallas Keuchel and Houston. He can expect more run support tonight as the Tigers offense averages a healthy 5.4 rpg at Comerica Park. Only five teams in all of MLB average more runs per game at home. The Twins typically win ugly, but lose even uglier. The current stretch is one of their best of the season; in fact, it's their longest win streak to date. Previously, they had not won more than four in a row at any point. Berrios has been their most profitable starter, but he was fortunate his last time out as the offense bailed him out in a 6-5 win over Texas. He allowed 2 HR's and five runs overall in five innings of work. He's also started to show signs of regression w/ only two of his last seven starts being quality. Berrios has pitched much better at home than on the road this year and if I'm a Twins fan, I'd be worried here about the fact the bullpen was taxed last night (4+ IP). Unless Berrios can deliver a masterpiece (don't see that happening), then I see the Twins losing for the first time in a week. 10* Detroit | |||||||
08-11-17 | Braves +135 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:15 ET): St. Louis certainly figures to be a popular side today. As I mentioned in the White Sox writeup, they just pulled off a dominant four-game sweep of the Royals (home & home) and have now won six in a row overall. They have pulled within a game of the first place Cubs in the NL Central and have the superior run YTD run differential. Don't count me among the "surprised," however, as I said week ago that the Cards just might be the best team in their division. Hosting Atlanta this weekend, everyone is likely to call for the "good times" to continue, but the ML for tonight's series opener has done some curious things, namely drop precipitously despite the vast majority of bets coming in on the favorite. (The same holds true in the Royals-White Sox game). The Braves do have an edge here in that they had Thursday off. Also, who knows what to expect from St. Louis in this "post-Rally Kitten" world? I'm on the dog here. The Braves' recent homestand ended in disappointing fashion as they lost the final three games, including both w/ the Phillies. But this team has curiously played better on the road all season anyway, so I'm not really concerned w/ them leaving their home park. They are basically dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed for the balance of the season (away from home). Something else they have going for them here is Mike Foltynewicz will be on the hill. Foltynewicz has a 10-1 team start record since June 2nd, including a very dominant performance his last time out (Saturday) when he struck out a season-high 11 batters in a 7-2 win over Miami (allowed only 1 ER & 4 hits in 6 1/3 IP). This is also a revenge spot for Foltynewicz and the Braves as they were swept in their lone series w/ the Cardinals this year (back in May). That included Foltynewicz's worst start of the season, so he'll be highly motivated here. The Cards counter w/ Adam Wainwright and while he has the same team start record as Foltynewicz (13-8), his ERA and WHIP are both worse. Last time out, starting for the first time in two weeks, Wainwright lasted only three innings as it took him 45 pitches to get out of the first inning. That was against Cincinnati too. Wainwright was fortunate in that his offense "showed up" that day, scoring 13 times. Another note is that Wainwright last started Sunday, a day after Foltynewicz, so not only are the Braves more rested than the Cardinals, so is their starter. St. Louis is only a .500 proposition (29-29) off a win this season. They were actually outhit by the Royals last night, but were fortunate to get a grand slam from Dexter Fowler. This is what I call an "ambush" spot. 8* Atlanta |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |