Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-07-16 | Reds v. Pirates -181 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -181 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The Bucs are going for a three-game sweep of the Reds Sunday and I think they'll get it behind Gerrit Cole. Granted, Cincy counters w/ one of their two good starters, that being Dan Strailey, but overall this is a very bad ballclub that's been outscored by 132 runs over the course of the season. They'd been flashing some promise heading into the series, but have been held to just five runs and 13 hits here at PNC Park. The Pirates still have Wild Card aspirations remember and depending on how St. Louis and Miami fare Saturday night, they could be facing just a 1.5 game deficit entering the day. The Reds are only 18-36 on the road this year while the Bucs are 17-5 L3 seasons at home in the -175 to -200 price range on the ML. Cole has missed some time due to injury this season and thus has been limited to only 16 starts. Pittsburgh really could have used him during the month he missed as that was the time they really hit the skids, going just 14-19 overall. The team lost his first start back, 6-0 at Washington (w/ Cole giving up five of those runs), but since then he's been lights out. Cole has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his three starts since, allowing only 1 ER each time out. That includes a complete game, three-hitter his last time starting here at home. There he finished w/ a 6-0 KW rate against a good Seattle lineup. For some odd reason, Cole has always struggled against the Reds (never beaten them), but there's a first time for everything and for the Bucs' ace Sunday should be that first time beating this particular divison rival. Cincinnati's Straily has been very good ever since July 1st (six straight quality starts). He and Anthony DeSclafani have really emerged as the anchors of this very young Reds staff. But the Pirates beat the previously unbeaten DeSclafani on Friday, though it was actually a walk-off HR that won it for them. Despite all of Straily's exploits, it should be mentioned that he still sports a poor 4.42 ERA on the road. The team has won his L4 outings overall, including B2B as underdogs (once at +215 at San Francisco), but this has all the makings of a sweep Sunday. 6* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-07-16 | Rony Jason v. Dennis Bermudez OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
5* Over 1.5 Round Bermudez/Jason (11:45 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the featherweight division (145 lbs). There is certainly a bit of controversy here as Rony Mariano Bezerra aka "Jason" is fighting for the first time in over a year due to a one-year ban for his use of illegal diuretics. That resulted in the overturning of a win in his last fight, a first round stoppage of Damon Jackson via triangle choke. With that result being overturned, it leaves "Jason" winless in the Octagon since March of 2014. So he has a lot to prove here against Bermudez, who you may recall I used in an Over play (2.5 round) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri in his last fight (back in February), which cashed as it went to the cards. We don't even need this one to go to the cards to punch a winning ticket, so once again w/ Bermudez, I'm going Over the round total. Bermudez was off B2B losses inside the Octagon, so I called for a fairly cautious approach in the last fight vs. Kawajiri, just his second time fighting since the start of 2015. That's pretty much what we got as Bermudez prevailed by straight 29-28 scores across the board. This will now be his shortest time between fights since late 2014. I'm interested to see how that affects him. You'll note that five of Bermudez's last eight victories have come via a decision. Only one time in his last eight fights have things ended inside of one round. That was a submission loss to Ricardo Lamas back in November of '14. Other than that, six have gone into the third round and the seventh ended past the midway point of Round 2. So, history is on our side here w/ Bermudez. With "Jason," there could be the issue of "cage rust," thus I do not see him looking to get off to a fast start here. With this only being a three-round fight, that really helps our case here. While a majority of Bezerra's most recent results have been quick endings, I should point out it was a decision loss to Robbie Peralta back in May of '14, which is his last official result. Even before the suspension, Bezerra was a fighter known for sitting back and picking his spots. We will see this one going past at least the midway point of Round 2. 5* Over 1.5 Rounds Bermudez/Jason | |||||||
08-06-16 | Rangers v. Astros -142 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:10 ET): I had the Astros last night and, as expected, they rolled to a 5-0 victory over Texas. I'll come right back w/ them again tonight for many of the same reasons. Yes, I may be just two days removed from taking the Rangers and them coming through at a nice +116 return on the money line in Baltimore. But this remains a flawed ballclub. What I mean by that is that in terms of wins and losses, they've clearly overachieved in 2016. Look no further than their run differential, now just +1 on the season, which is eighth best in the American League. So the fact they entered last night w/ the best record in the AL should be considered very fortunate. Houston had been only 1-9 vs. Texas this year, but as I said yday, this is going to be their series for the taking. I would not be shocked if they passed the Rangers in the AL West by season's end. | |||||||
08-06-16 | Mets v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:10 ET): Turns out that Thursday afternoon (lost 6-3 to the White Sox) was just a "brief hiccup" for the Tigers, who improved to 9-1 their L10 games w/ a 4-3 win over Noah Syndergaard and the Mets last night. That result, coupled w/ Cleveland's loss in New York, has Detroit now just two games back in American League Central. Meanwhile, the Mets (last year's Senior Circuit champs) seem to be fading in the National League Wildcard picture even though they face the same two-game deficit (behind Marlins & Cardinals) that the Tigers do. But New York certainly seems to be trending in the wrong direction of late w/ losses in 7 of their past 10 games. Detroit is a team that probably should not be faded right now. | |||||||
08-06-16 | Edmonton +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 106 h 39 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): We're nearly through seven weeks of CFL play and there's only one team that has yet to cover a single time. That would be defending Grey Cup Champion Edmonton, who comes into this week's battle vs. Ottawa at 0-4-1 ATS. The Eskimos are only 2-3 straight up as well, so this team has clearly fallen short of expectations. The season got off to an auspicious start when they lost outright, on their own field, to Ottawa in a rematch of LY's Grey Cup. Saturday represents a chance at revenge for that 45-37 (as six-point favorites) loss. Looking at the two lines, I'd say the oddsmakers have overadjusted here as the REDBLACKS don't exactly come into this game in top form either (B2B losses). Take the points. I'd say the most disappointing result to date for the Eskimos took place last week as they lost again at home, this time to Winnipeg, 30-23 as nine-point chalk. That game saw Edmonton fall into an early 11-0 hole and trail throughout as they allowed a backup pivot (QB) and former teammate, Mike Nicholls, to complete 78 percent of his pass attempts for over 300 yards. Clearly, something is wrong with this defense, which led the league in points allowed last year. There's been a stunning 13.2 PPG increase from 2015, but the season is still young and there's time to turn this around. Though Ottawa is actually the top offensive team in the league right now, I'd consider that shocking as they've already had to employ four different quarterbacks in just five games. I think it's important to note that Ottawa's Week 1 win in Edmonton came in overtime, which only came about after they made a 55-yard field goal w/ no time left in regulation. It was their first win over the Eskimos since returning to the league in 2014. This will be the first time they are favored. They have lost outright as faves each of the L2 weeks, first to Saskatchewan and then Toronto, and have not won at home this season (0-1-1). Edmonton has pretty impressive offense in its own right w/ QB Mike Reilly currently on pace to break the franchise record for passing yards in a season. He leads the league in that category and has now thrown for 300+ yards in eight consecutive contests dating back to last year. If he does so again here, he would tie a CFL record. 10* Edmonton | |||||||
08-06-16 | Indians -150 v. Yankees | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
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08-05-16 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
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08-05-16 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): Seattle has revenge in this series as they were swept by the Angels, here at home, all the way back in May. But tonight's series opener seems to set up well for them on paper as they have Felix Hernandez going at home. Still, I'm a little leery of a Mariners offense which has simply failed to produce consistently in recent days. In six of the last ten games, they've been held to three runs or fewer and the just completed series w/ the Red Sox was quite low-scoring all around. Yes, they're facing Tim Lincecum here, but even he should be able to find some success against a lineup which is hitting a collective .193 its last seven games. I'm on the Under in this one. King Felix has not been particularly effective since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, but he did hold the Cubs to just two runs in five innings his last time out. Both times he's faced the Angels this year he's gone at least seven innings and allowed just three earned runs. Going back to the final time he faced them in 2015, Hernandez's last three starts vs. the Halos have all stayed Under the total. He literally got no run support back in May as his offense was shutout in a 3-0 loss. All three times, Seattle has scored two runs or less and lost. Despite some decreased velocity, I still think Hernandez will do his job, which would be made even easier if the Angels top hitter - Mike Trout - sits out. Trout did not start yday vs. Oakland, but pinch hit. The Under is 23-8-4 in Hernandez's L35 starts vs. the Angels with or without Trout. It would also be nice here if Seattle didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (always a big assist when playing the Under). I was 2 for 2 in hitting the Under in Seattle's just completed series vs. Boston. Overall, there just wasn't much scoring done - on either side - in that four game set. The opener took only 2 hrs, 42 minutes to complete as the teams combined to go three up, three down a total of TEN times in a scoreless first 6.5 innings (game finished 2-1 in favor of Red Sox). Tuesday saw Seattle shutout for the first six innings yet again. Wednesday brought a 3-1 win (I had the Under) and the M's had just four hits for the game there. Last night was a 3-2 loss in 11 innings. Look for another low scoring game at Safeco tonight. 10* Under Angels/Mariners | |||||||
08-05-16 | Blue Jays -134 v. Royals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:15 ET): These teams met in last year's ALCS, but given recent form (on both sides), only one side stands a chance of getting back there this year. That would be the Blue Jays as this series most certainly represents two teams trending in very different directions. Toronto just took three in a row in Houston, allowing just three runs in the process, and has won 19 of 28. Kansas City, who seems unable to win when Danny Duffy isn't pitching, has just six victories since the All-Star Break. Four of those have come w/ Duffy on the bump, which leaves them at a pitiful 3-21 the L24 games that Duffy did NOT start. No offense Royals fans, but you owe Fangraphs a big apology as all the signs that your team would regress in 2016 have come to fruition. Look for Toronto to come in and roll here. The Blue Jays are one of just three teams in the American League to have a winning road record. Theirs (30-23) is actually the best and only the Cardinals and Nats in the NL are better overall. As mentioned above, they come off three straight wins in Houston (a good home team) and allowed just one run in every game. Last year, the offense carried this club, but in 2016 the pitching has improved despite the loss of David Price. A new acquisition gets the starting nod tonight. That would be Francisco Liriano. While his numbers w/ Pittsburgh may not look very impressive to you, I've got my eyes on one key statistic. Liriano will be reunited w/ another former Pirate here, that being catcher Russell Martin, and when those two have worked together in the past, Liriano sports an ERA of 2.92. P.S. The Royals have lost the last seven times they've faced a left-handed starter! Dillon Gee will be the starter for Kansas City and because he's not Duffy, it's really difficult to like the team's chances here, even at home. One month ago, in Toronto, the Blue Jays swept the Royals and held them to just seven runs in the three games. Gee joined the starting rotation right after that and has not been successful w/ a 6.75 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in three starts, all losses. Again, he figures to get little help from an offense that has now scored three runs or fewer in ELEVEN of its last 12 games. A crushing 3-2 loss yday in Tampa Bay (allowed 3-run HR in bottom of eighth after one-hitting the Rays through seven) does the Royals no favors here either. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-05-16 | Rangers v. Astros -154 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): Texas was quite kind to me yday, cashing as a +116 underdog on the money line in Baltimore, which is not an easy place to win (Orioles have best home record in baseball). But, if you go back and look at my analysis for that game (which I implore you to do!), you'll note I made mention of some "reservations" I have concerning the Rangers moving forward. Currently, there are nine teams in the American League w/ positive run differentials. Of those nine, the Rangers (who have the best record) place only eighth, having outscored opponents by only six runs over the course of the season. Houston, their main competition in the division and opponent this weekend, is +33. I still am of the belief that the Astros will possibly overtake the Rangers for the AL West crown. Take them in tonight's series opener. | |||||||
08-04-16 | Rangers +116 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:05 ET): This battle of unlikely division leaders has seen Baltimore come out on top both times so far in the series. But while Texas' lead in the West (5.5 games) remains safer than the Orioles in the East (1 gm), don't think for a second that the Rangers won't have a sense of desperation Thursday as they look to avoid being swept. Yesterday saw the O's score all three of their runs in the first inning and they were held to just one hit after that. There's been a real offensive decline with Buck Showalter's club since the Break and while they remain a lucrative 39-16 this year at Camden Yards, I think their opponents are a really solid value this afternoon despite any reservations I may have about their YTD run differential (only +4). I do have to tip my cap to the Orioles for beating both Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels the L2 days. They've done so with only eight runs and 13 hits, so the pitching deserves more of the credit in this series. That's odd considering Baltimore's starting staff has ranked near the bottom of MLB in ERA basically all season (currently 25th at 4.91). For that reason, they went out and acquired Wade Miley from Seattle at the trade deadline. But could there wind up being a little "buyer's remorse" when all is said and done? Yes, Miley has pitched well recently, but over the course of the year his ERA/WHIP is 4.98/1.348. He did pitch very well in his lone start at Camden Yards earlier this year, but that was against the team he now plays for, not Texas, who has gotten to him three times in 2016. In those three starts vs. the Rangers, Miley has allowed a total of 14 runs and 21 hits in 17 IP. In starts outside of Safeco Field this year, Miley has a 5.01 ERA and 1.423 WHIP. Since the start of last season, no team has been as profitable at the betting window than the Rangers and it's not even close. They led all of baseball last season at +30.7 units and once again find themselves a top the rankings at +21.7 here in '16. They did outhit the Orioles last night (7-4) and I think that a real key for tonight is that they are 21-7 their L28 after scoring two runs or less the previous ballgame. They'll counter Miley w/ AJ Griffin, who has an 8-3 TSR L11 outings and has allowed just three runs total his L2 starts. 10* Texas | |||||||
08-04-16 | Twins v. Indians -140 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (12:10 ET): Can you believe that the Indians are now just 4-8 head to head vs. the Twins in 2016 and facing the prospect of a four-game sweep, at home? More shocking than just that have been the individual results themselves in this series. Minnesota has won by scores of 12-5, 10-6 and 13-5, pummeling what had been the top pitching staff in the entire American League. To say the events of this week at Progressive Field have been shocking would be a mild understatement. I've unfortunately been on Cleveland each of the L2 games and just to reiterate the shocking nature of the results, I'll repost a snippet of my past analysis and point out that the Indians still rank near the top of the AL (3rd, were 1st going into yday) in run differential (+78) and have gone 26-8 vs. the other three teams in the Central Division. Minnesota is -60 in YTD run diff (2nd worst in AL) and is a combined 6-21 vs. KC, Detroit and Chicago. | |||||||
08-04-16 | Royals v. Rays -132 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
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08-03-16 | Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 108 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
10* Under Red Sox/Mariners (10:10 ET): I had Under in the first game of this series, which was won by the Red Sox w/ a scant three runs scored (2-1) between the two teams. The game only took a 2 hrs and 42 minutes to play and was still scoreless heading into the home half of the seventh inning. Boston won it w/ solo home runs in the eighth and ninth innings (seems like a lot of their games have been decided in the late innings recently). Case in point, yesterday's game was a 5-4 final, this time in favor of the Mariners, a rare one-run decision to go their way after several such games recently went against them (Sunday's 7-6 loss to the Cubs being the most painful). Though Tuesday was higher scoring and finished Over the total, note that once again the M's were shutout for the first six innings w/ all of their scoring coming in the eighth. The result thus snapped a six-game Under run for Boston. But I'm calling for another Under tonight. Through seven innings last night, Seattle had managed only three hits against David Price. That was a similar story to Monday where they had just one hit in seven inning against Eduardo Rodriguez. Incredibly, that game saw the two starters face only 42 hitters (minimum is 39!) in the first 6.5 innings! That included ten 1-2-3 innings out of a possible 13! Neither team even managed a hit until there were two outs in the bottom of the fourth. Yesterday saw a similar story unfold, at least from Seattle's perspective as they didn't send up more than four hitters to plate in any of the first seven innings. Neither team is drawing many walks in this series either as there's been just six total in the two games. Tonight's pitching matchup, I believe, has us in line for a similar type game. For the Red Sox, Rick Porcello has been just outstanding his L3 starts w/ a 0.818 WHIP. He's now 14-2 in 21 starts (16-5 TSR) and the last time the team lost w/ him on the mound was June 12th! He has a 3.44 ERA his L13 starts overall and has a very strong WHIP on the road (1.108) for the season. Meanwhile, I expect the normally reliable Hisashi Iwakuma to bounce back here for the Mariners after his shortest stint of the season his last time out (vs. Cubs). Iwakuma had made three consecutive quality starts before that one and may not have to contend w/ Hanley Ramirez in the Boston lineup as he slipped in the dugout yday and hurt his wrist. Over the L7 games, Boston is scoring only 3.3 rpg and hitting a collective .213. Seattle hitters have actually been worse at the plate w/ a .208 average. 10* Under Red Sox/Mariners | |||||||
08-03-16 | Twins v. Indians -176 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -176 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
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08-03-16 | Brewers -139 v. Padres | Top | 3-12 | Loss | -139 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (3:40 ET): The Brew Crew arrived in San Diego Monday fresh off a surprising sweep (at home) of the Pirates over the weekend. They've managed to split the two games so far at Petco Park (won 3-2 yday) and I believe stand an excellent chance to take the series here on Getaway Day. I say this not just because the Padres are a bad team in general, but they are particularly brutal in the day time (just 9-25, worst record in all of MLB) as well. Furthermore, today's pitching matchup seems squarely in the favor of Milwaukee, whose staff has held opponents in check (.231 BA) the last seven days to begin with. In four of six meetings this year, San Diego has scored three runs or fewer against Brewers' pitching. | |||||||
08-02-16 | A's v. Angels -136 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Though these teams enter today tied in the standings (47-58), there's a massive discrepancy between the two that I don't feel is being properly reflected in the line. The Angels, though 11 games below .500, have actually outscored their opponents this season by the slightest of margins (1 run). Meanwhile, Oakland sports the worst run differential in the entire American League at -81. So the old adage of "throw the records out the window" certainly does apply here. Furthermore, the Halos have won 8 of 10 home games since the Break and have justified the select number of times they've been in this price range this season (2-0 at -150 to -175 at home). I'm on the home team tonight and would not be surprised to see them dominate this series. We have two starting pitchers going tonight that have less than stellar numbers over the long term, but recently both Sean Manea and Matt Shoemaker have pitched admirably. Manaea carries a 1.25 ERA and 0.969 WHIP his L3 starts while Shoemaker is at 2.91 and 0.969. But Shoemaker has been a little better over the course of the season, especially at home. The last time he started here, he tossed a complete game shutout w/ 13 strikeouts and no walks. That dropped his ERA/WHIP to 3.23/1.132 here, so he's probably deserving of better than a 3-6 team start record. Manaea, meanwhile, has been largely feast or famine. While he hasn't allowed a single run in three of his last five outings, there was one where he allowed six runs at Minnesota and then last time out he yielded 11 hits in 6 2/3 IP. Both those starts came on the road where his ERA/WHIP is 6.99/1.553 for the year. Oakland also just got swept in Cleveland, including an 8-0 loss Sunday. Again, I'd consider them to possibly be the worst team in the entire AL right now. Getting back to the starting pitching match, Shoemaker has faced the A's twice this year and has allowed only one run (on seven hits) in 12 IP. Personally, I think he's pitched a lot better than his record indicates as his ERA was actually lower than that of Hector Santiago, who was just traded to Minnesota after an outstanding July. He'll lead the team to victory here. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-02-16 | Twins v. Indians -202 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -202 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
5* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians took a very bad loss yday, falling 12-5 to the Twins. With the surging Tigers (won 6 straight) now "hot on their heels" in the American League Central, that's the kind of result that the Tribe simply cannot afford right now. They're actually just 4-6 overall vs. Minnesota this year, which defies logic when you consider how the two teams have been at opposite ends of the division basically all year and that Cleveland is a combined 26-8 vs. the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. They still sport a +90 run differential (best in the AL) though and will be sending Carlos Carrasco to the bump Tuesday. I view this as an obvious bounce back spot for the heavily favored team. It doesn't happen often, but Cleveland typically bounces back after giving up 10+ runs the previous game. They are 3-1 in that situation this year and 13-7 over the last three seasons. Having Carrasco toe the rubber definitely helps as he brings in a 2.45 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 15 starts, 11 of those resulting in team victories. He's looked very good of late w/ a 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts as he's allowed only eight hits in 18+ innings of work. Going all the way back to the start of June, there have been only two occasions (in 11 starts) where Carrasco has yielded more than three runs and one of those saw four of the five runs charged be unearned. Clearly, this is a pitcher worthy of this price range. Making the previous Indians-Twins results all the more confounding is the fact the latter is just 6-21 in all other division contests. We're talking about a matchup of the team w/ the best run differential in the American League against the team with the second worst run differential. Minnesota is still only 18-32 on the road this year and Cleveland has outscored its opponents by an impressive 1.4 rpg margin here at home. It is difficult to envision Kyle Gibson going "toe to toe" w/ Carrasco as he has a 5.14 ERA and 1.429 WHIP on the road. After allowing four runs and 10 hits in a start last month, Gibson now has a 5.80 career ERA vs. the Indians. Home teams typically bounce back from a loss like the one the Tribe took last night and when they're the significantly better side, it's all but guaranteed. 5* Cleveland | |||||||
08-02-16 | Rangers -112 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:05 ET): Despite this being a battle of division leaders, truth be told, I'm not sure how sold I am on either club over the long-term. Both the Rangers and Orioles have outperformed their respective run differentials this season, in terms of wins and losses, and have much better records at home than on the road. That last little tidbit would seem to favor Baltimore this week, but for tonight's series opener I'll be on Texas, who just bolstered their roster yday and has the much better starting pitcher going. The Rangers arrive in Camden Yards fresh off a sweep of the Royals while the O's haven't been playing particularly well of late. An extra-innings win Sunday snapped what had been a five-game losing streak. Yu Darvish is a big key to this game for Texas. Since rejoining the rotation in mid-July, the team is a surprising 0-3 with him on the mound. Overall, they've lost his L4 starts. But the blame there certainly should not be placed at the feet of Darvish, who has allowed 2 ER or less in each of those four starts and has delivered B2B quality outings w/ a 17-1 KW rate. He's previously been on a pitch count, but for tonight it sounds as if they'll finally let him throw 100+ pitches, if needed. Darvish was in line for a win his last time out as he gave up just four hits (only two after the 1st inning) over six innings, but the bullpen ruined things. I make Texas the favorite in the AL West after yday's acquisitions of Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran. Though they got Wade Miley from Seattle at the deadline, starting pitching remains a major concern in Baltimore as the starting rotation has one of the worst collective ERA's (4.81, 26th) in all of baseball. Taking Chris Tillman out of the equation, the team is just 40-41 in all other games. The team's offensive numbers have dipped rather dramatically of late w/ the lineup batting a collective .201 the past seven games while scoring just 3.0 runs per. Tonight's starter Dylan Bundy has given up five home runs in three starts so far and has yet to make it through six full innings. Texas is 9-2 head to head w/ Baltimore since the start of last season. 10* Texas | |||||||
08-01-16 | Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
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08-01-16 | Nationals -185 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
6* Washington (9:40 ET): Stephen Strasburg rebounded nicely from his first defeat of 2016 (7/21 at LA) by tossing seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball at Cleveland on Wednesday. That improved his record to 14-1 this season and the team has won 17 of his 19 starts overall. Monday night provides an opportunity to face one of the weakest opponents possible as reeling Arizona will be the host. Normally, playing as the road team presents some sort of disadvantage, but not here at Chase Field where the visitors have gone a shocking 35-17 over the course of 2016. The D'backs home record is the second worst in all of baseball, with only Atlanta being inferior. Washington enters the day as one of only three teams w/ 30 road wins. I'll be going with them. This shapes up to be a pretty severe pitching mismatch with Archie Bradley starting opposite Strasburg. Bradley may not be giving up a ton of runs lately, but his WHIP is still relatively high (1.444 L3 starts), which indicates to me that he's been a little lucky with the number of baserunners actually allowed compared to the number that have scored. He's walked 11 batters over his L3 starts. As I said earlier, Arizona has not been playing well of late as they've dropped 14 of 19 and were hammered on Sunday, 14-3, by the Dodgers. It was the second time in that series they failed to protect a lead of three runs or greater and you can expect more of that moving forward as it's now a "bullpen by committee" after sending closer Brad Ziegler to Boston. Meanwhile, I don't see any issues with Washington from a pitching perspective here as they have Strasburg to do the heavy lifting and then the recently acquired Mark Melancon (led MLB w/ 51 saves last year) to finish things off. Strasburg has allowed 1 or 0 ER in five of his last six starts and in all of those, he lasted at least 6 2/3 innings. There aren't many teams in baseball that have struggled more in series openers than has Arizona, who have dropped nine in a row. The price range isn't kind to them either as they're 0-4 this season when priced as a home dog between +150 and +175 on the money line. This is the first meeting of the year of these two clubs and it should go as you would expect. 6* Washington | |||||||
08-01-16 | Marlins v. Cubs -174 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
7* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Admittedly, this isn't a great spot/situation for the Cubs. There's the potential for a letdown after last night's thrilling 7-6, come from behind victory over Seattle, a game which went 12 innings. Usually, I try and avoid (or even go against!) teams that played on the ESPN Sunday Night telecast, come Monday. But, if you're Joe Maddon, then you have to feel pretty good about the last 24 hours. The Cubs were able to win a game where they got a spot start from Brian Matusz (no thanks to Matusz!) and now have Kyle Hendricks at their disposal tonight. That's the key to this one as Hendricks actually sports the lowest WHIP among the team's normal starting rotation. He has been outstanding all year here at Wrigley. | |||||||
07-31-16 | Toronto v. Ottawa UNDER 49 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Argos/REDBLACKS (7:30 ET): East Division leading Ottawa ranks right near the top of the league in points per game (31.6) and overall only two teams (Edmonton, Saskatchewan) see more total points per game scored in their contests. They've alternated Overs and Unders through their first five games with last week, a 30-29 loss to Saskatchewan, being an Over. That game saw them lose on a FG in the final 70 seconds, so you know they'll be motivated here and they have a definite advantage over their opponents as in three added days of rest. But Toronto is near the top of the league in fewest points allowed (24.0 PPG). They are also 9-2 Under their L11 games overall, including the first meeting this season w/ the Redblacks. Take the Under here. That first Toronto-Ottawa meeting saw a higher total than this one. So an Over player might see a little value here especially after the Redblacks defense just allowed a first time starter in Saskatchewan's Mitchell Gale to throw for 354 yards last week. Now for a second straight week, they face another first time starter. That would be Logan Kilgore, who has big shoes to fill w/ Ricky Ray being out for the next 3-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. Yes, I had the Argos last week (Monday) as they beat Montreal 30-17, but if you had a chance to check out the analysis, perhaps you'll recall the downward trajectory I referenced in regards to Scott Milanovich's offenses over the L4 years. They've dropped from a third place ranking down to sixth last season. This year's average of 25.0 PPG has them in seventh. Ottawa also now finds itself in the midst of a quarterback dilemma. Last week saw the league's top rated passer, Trevor Harris, go down w/ a leg injury on the second drive and not return. He's out here. Now you might say there's nothing to worry about given the Redblacks still ended up scoring 29 pts last week w/ backup Brock Jensen completing 20 of 29 passes for 271 yards. But now it's back to Henry Burris, the Week 1 starter who got hurt himself. Despite Ottawa's offensive prowess, I expect Burris to be a bit rusty in this one. Note that the Under is 9-4 when the Redblacks are off an ATS loss. That first meeting between these teams also saw a punt return for a touchdown and an INT set Toronto up inside the Ottawa 10-yd line. Take those plays away and you have a much lower scoring game. 10* Under Argos/REDBLACKS | |||||||
07-31-16 | Nationals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Nationals/Giants (4:05 ET): This battle of division leaders saw the Nats take the first two games before losing Sunday, 5-3. All three games have stayed Under and I anticipate this one doing the same. Going back, both teams have now gone Under in four straight games. Prior to winning Saturday, San Francisco had been in a terrible way ever since the All-Star Break, dropping 11 of its first 13 games. Lack of offense has been the big issue as there's been only three times they've topped the five-run plateau. They scored exactly five yday, but that was more runs than they'd scored in the previous three games combined. Overall, they've scored two runs or fewer eight times since the Break. Take the Under. | |||||||
07-31-16 | Astros -149 v. Tigers | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -149 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:10 ET): These are two teams trying to fight there way into Wild Card position. Thanks to taking the first two games of this series, Detroit now has a one-half game lead on the Astros, though they still are a game behind the Red Sox for the second WC spot in the American League. Overall, the Tigers have won five in a row after taking last night's game in walk-off fashion, 3-2, on an infield single. Interestingly, both teams scored twice in the ninth. Tough loss for Houston, but I'll make the case that they're still the better team here as they've outscored opponents by 49 runs (4th best in AL) over the course of the season while Detroit is at +7 (tied for 8th). Dallas Keuchel is toeing the rubber Sunday for the Astros and I think that gives them a pretty distinct advantage as they look to avoid the sweep. A big key for the Astros this season is they are #2 in run suppression in the American League, trailing only Cleveland. If Keuchel, last year's Cy Young winner, was pitching up to his 2015 standard, then just imagine how good they'd be in that department. The team actually sports a losing record w/ Keuchel on the bump this year (9-12), though he has shown some clear signs that things are set to turn as he's delivered five consecutive quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time out. He has a 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in the last three, but was a hard luck loser his last time out (2-1 to the Yankees) despite going 7 2/3 innings w/o a walk. It should be pointed out that since May 1st, Houston has the best record in the American League (48-29) and ranks 1st in both defensive runs saved and bullpen ERA. Detroit goes w/ Mike Pelfrey here. Having benefited from leading the league in double plays turned a year ago, he's again near the top in that statistic in 2016 and may even top his 2015 total. But, overall it has not been a good season for him. In 20 starts, Pelfrey has a 5.52 ERA and 1.802 WHIP and his numbers are actually worse here at Comerica Park. Somehow, the team has been able to win two of his last three turns despite him posting a woeful 8.25 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. This shapes up to be a complete pitching mismatch on Sunday and I happen to think that the Astros are the better team overall anyway. 8* Houston | |||||||
07-31-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -163 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -163 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
8* Toronto (1:05 ET): Although I actually took the Over on Friday (and that play was a winner!), I stated in my analysis that I anticipated this being a big weekend for the Blue Jays. I came back and took them on the money line yday and sure enough they romped their way to victory over Baltimore, 9-1. The end result is that they now find themselves in first place in the AL East, one-half game up on the Orioles and two up on the Red Sox. I believe that after today they'll widen that lead, at least over the O's, and finish off the sweep here at Rogers Centre. Today is the marquee pitching matchup of the series w/ Chris Tillman facing off against Aaron Sanchez. Baltimore's definitely a different team w/ Tillman on the bump, but they are also just 21-29 on the road. When Tillman isn't on the mound, the Orioles are just a .500 team. When he pitches, they've gone 18-4. No pitcher in MLB has earned more net units for his team at the betting window than has Tillman (+14.4). He'd been rolling along quite nicely in July; that was until he ran into Colorado his last time out. There, and this came at Camden Yards not Coors Field, he gave up six runs in just five innings of work. Tillman has not fared well against Toronto throughout his career, going 5-10 in 22 starts w/ a 5.71 ERA. In two starts against them this year, he's allowed six runs in 11 innings. Both starts came at home. Back to the team's road woes, they are just 2-10 this season when priced in the +125 to +150 range on the money line. Overall, the club is trending in the wrong direction w/ five consecutive losses. Toronto has the perfect counter for Tillman and that's Sanchez, who has not lost a decision since April 22nd! That's a span of 16 starts and he's gone 10-0 (12-4 TSR) w/ 2.58 ERA. It should be pointed out that Sanchez has both a better ERA and WHIP than Tillman over the course of the season. He in fact leads the entire American League in ERA (2.72) and that's the lowest earned run average posted by any starter, 23 years or younger, since Felix Hernandez. Lately, he's been on fire w/ a 1.71 ERA his L7 starts, allowing 2 ER or less every time. The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball right now (16-6 L22), averaging 6.0 rpg during those 22 games. 8* Toronto | |||||||
07-30-16 | Francisco Rivera v. Erik Perez -150 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Erik Perez (10:00 ET): This is a fight in the bantamweight division (135 lbs), scheduled for three rounds. If you've monitored the lines for tonight's card, then you've probably noticed that a steady influx of money has come in on the favorite Perez here and in this instance I am inclined to agree with my fellow bettors. While it's probably fair to point out that his opponent Francisco Rivera has taken two questionable losses over the last 18 months, the bottom line is that he's now lost four of his last five fights in the UFC. Perez is off a win last November and hasn't fought since, so he should be eager to make an impact. I'm going with him to win, whether it's by stoppage or decision. A big key to this fight is both Rivera's age and chin. He's eight years older than Perez. These days, you typically want to side w/ youth in the UFC. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Rivera get caught here and possibly TKO'd. Another edge for Perez will be on the ground where all the metrics seem to be in his favor. Both fighters typically do a good job at avoiding punishment, but for this fight I see Rivera taking the bulk of it. Something else to look for is Perez taking control late and winning the third round, if the fight indeed goes that far. Rivera is almost too active at times and is known to tire late in fights. One thing that I really liked seeing in Perez's last fight was his usage of kicks. His movement was a lot better as well, likely a result of switching camps to Alliance MMA. Though he didn't have a ton of takedowns against Taylor Lapilus, he was still able to dominate the fight from the mount position. I can see the same thing occurring here. 8* Erik Perez | |||||||
07-30-16 | Reds v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Over Reds/Padres (8:40 ET): There's really no disputing that the Reds are terrible. They are 20 games below. 500 and have the worst run differential in all of MLB at -137. Still, they've shown some unexpected signs of life since the All-Star Break by going 6-2 the last eight games. They have already assured themselves of no worse than a .500 finish in July. Last night, they dominated the Padres here in San Diego to the tune of 6-0. What's interesting about that final score is that it marked the third straight time these teams have played where the losing side was shutout. I'll call for a higher scoring game all around tonight as the Reds are swinging the bats well and the Padres should bounce back at the plate as well. Take the Over. For years, Petco Park had earned the reputation of being "pitcher friendly." But, changes have been made to the venue, most notably the left field wall being brought in last year. Since the start of last season, the Over is now 73-52-5 in Padres home games. This season has seen an average of nearly 9.5 rpg scored here, which is well above the average posted total. Consider that tonight's starter, Christian Friedrich, has seen all five of his home starts land Over the total. Part of that is that Friedrich simply isn't very good. In his last three starts overall, he has an ERA of 7.43 and a WHIP of 1.95. Last time out, he lasted only three innings, yet gave up five runs. Over his last seven starts, the numbers bear out the same level of ineptitude; a 7.86 ERA and 1.748 WHIP. He's allowed at least four runs in six of those starts while only once making it through the sixth inning. The Reds are averaging 6.0 runs over their last seven games. Cincinnati will have one of its two good starters on the hill tonight, which is why they're favored, but Anthony DeSclafani was rocked his last time out for five runs in five innings at San Francisco. The Reds still managed to win mind you, 7-5, but it was not a good showing for DeSclafani. A big problem for him is that he's allowed a home run in four consecutive starts (two last time out). In case you hadn't heard, San Diego had homered in 25 consecutive games prior to being shutout yday. Look for this to turn into a slugfest as I guarantee this will be the first time in the L4 Reds-Pades games that both teams score. 10* Over Reds/Padres | |||||||
07-30-16 | A's v. Indians -179 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
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07-30-16 | Pirates -143 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
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07-30-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -174 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (1:07 ET): Hitting the Over in last night's series opener was not a problem as the Blue Jays set the tone early w/ three home runs in the first inning and there were 10 total runs scored by the fourth inning (total was 9.0). As I had expected, Toronto ended up taking the game as well, 6-5. In yday's analysis, I made sure to point out what a big series this was for Toronto as they now trail Baltimore by just one-half game in the AL East Standings and can thus take over first place w/ another win today. The homefield advantage is big here (Baltimore just 21-28 on the road) as is the discrepancy in run differentials where Toronto is +77 and Baltimore is just +31. I'll call for a new division leader by day's end. At the All-Star Break, the Orioles are a team I "earmarked" for second-half regression and it appears as if I made the right call there. Outside of Camden Yards (where they are 37-16), this is simply not the same team and the starting pitching remains a very big concern. Consider that even w/ Chris Tillman's contributions, the rotation's ERA this year is an awful 4.98 (26th), a number typically reserved for last place teams. Take Tillman's starts out of the equation and the team's overall record drops to 40-39. Not to put Tillman on the same mantle as the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, but it's a similar effect there. Starting today for the O's is Yovani Gallardo, who should feel quite fortunate to have an 8-4 TSR given that his ERA and WHIP are 5.37 and 1.63 respectively. On the road, those numbers get even worse. By the way, Baltimore has now lost four in a row. Toronto will send out JA Happ, who is red hot. He's 7-0 (8-0 TSR) over his last eight starts. In his 10 home starts this year, the team has won nine times w/ Happ at 8-1 himself. Lately, he's been real sharp, turning in a 1.56 ERA and 1.038 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he held Seattle (a good offensive team) to just one hit in 6 IP. There's been only one time in his L7 starts where he's given up more than 3 ER and that came at Coors Field. Personally, I think the Blue Jays are the best team in the East and they're starting to show it w/ a 14-5 run in division games. After today, they'll be in first place. 8* Toronto | |||||||
07-29-16 | BC v. Calgary -5 | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -106 | 93 h 53 m | Show |
10* Calgary (10:00 ET): Back in Week 1, I took BC when they upset the Stamps, 20-18 as 2.5-pt home dogs. That was one of the few wins by a home team in the first few weeks of the season. It also required a come from behind effort from the Leos, who trailed 17-12 entering the final quarter. They actually never led until a 4Q punt return, which proved to be the difference in the game. How ironic that it was a punt return for a TD that won the game for BC as earlier in the game Calgary had actually blocked three punts (but failed to take advantage). One of the three resulted in a first and goal from the one, but the Stampeders failed to score. Clearly, this is a big revenge game as far as Calgary is concerned and I think they win big. Since losing in Week 1, the Stamps have not tasted defeat again. I cashed my 10* CFL Game of the Year on them in Week 2 when they destroyed Winnipeg, 36-22. Following that, they tied Ottawa (on the road) 26-26, but then recouped off a bye to beat up the Bombers again, this time on the road, 33-18 as five-point chalk. Despite a 2-1-1 mark, I would still consider this perhaps the best team in the league. Keep in mind that this is just their second home game of the season and not only have they covered six of their last seven games overall here at McMahon Stadium, but they are also 6-1 ATS the L7 times hosting BC. I can't say enough about the job done by pivot (QB) Bo Levi Mitchell, who has now thrown a TD pass in 19 consecutive games and is 30-7-1 overall as a starter. Yes, I'm fully aware that BC is off a bye here. Like Calgary, through the years we've seen the Leos do quite well with the added week of rest. But not here. Note that while they did win their last game by 13 pts, they actually trailed Saskatchewan by 13 earlier in the game. It was their largest come from behind victory in eight seasons. Going back to last season, this team is just 2-6 ATS following a SU win. The win over the Riders also came at a price as two starters were lost to injury. Three outright wins thus far is impressive, but the bottom line is that Calgary is rarely asked to lay this few points at home. The revenge angle absolutely matters here and I'll lay the points. 10* Calgary | |||||||
07-29-16 | Phillies -149 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -149 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
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07-29-16 | Cardinals v. Marlins -117 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:10 ET): From the Marlins perspective, this series got off to an auspicious start last night as they lost here at home w/ Jose Fernandez on the mound (he was previously 26-1 starting in Miami). But, that result is something I believe they can definitely recover from. Right now, these teams are tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League, so this game is quite important. The Cardinals have gotten hot (won 8 of 11) and have the vastly superior run differential, but note that Miami is 8-1 off its last nine losses. While highly profitable on the road this season, St. Louis doesn't have the edge in starting pitching in this one either. Therefore, I call for the home team to square the series away at one game apiece. Jose Urena has made only two starts thus far for the Marlins and while he hasn't won either (team is 1-1), he's definitely pitched very well. In 11 2/3 innings of work, he's given up just two runs and eight hits w/ a 9-1 KW rate. Yes, he's gotten to face the Mets and Phillies, two of the worst offenses in the National League, but I still like his chances tonight. Urena had been working out of the bullpen in April and May, but has been more effective in the role of starter. As for St. Louis, they go w/ Mike Leake. He has a good track record pitching in Miami, but overall has a 4.24 ERA this season. The team has won just two of his past seven starts and is 0-4 during that time against opponents w/ a winning record. Last time out, he was hammered for seven runs and 12 hits by Los Angeles. One of the big stories in this series is the return of Dee Gordon, last year's NL batting champion, to the Marlins lineup. Gordon is coming off an 80-game suspension for PED's and went 0 for 4 in his official return last night. But I wouldn't be surprised if he got on track rather quickly. In 2015, he hit .333 and also led the NL in steals w/ 58. He's a key cog at the top of the order. Meanwhile, St. Louis is hitting a collective .197 their last seven games, which is not an encouraging sign. As a slight road underdog (+125 or less on the ML), the Cards have a losing record not just this year, but over the past three seasons. Good value on the other side here. 10* Miami | |||||||
07-29-16 | Rockies v. Mets -161 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -161 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets suffered a tough 2-1 loss last night here at Citi Field and are now 0-4 this season against the Rockies. The reigning Senior Circuit champs currently find themselves on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the NL playoff picture and more losses to an opponent such as this one are "killers" for their chances of moving up in the standings. Though the offense has some real issues, I think tonight's pitching matchup greatly favors New York and the money line really does not reflect just how one-sided it might be. Beating the same opponent, game after game, is tough to do in this sport and for a subpar outfit like Colorado, there's no reason to believe they can keep beating the Mets. Rockies pitching has been surprisingly sharp over the last week or so. It's the reason why the team has won seven of eight as they haven't allowed more than four runs in any of those games. Take the staff out of Coors Field and it's amazing what can happen. Nowhere is that more apparent than with tonight's starter Tyler Chatwood, who has a 1.30 ERA and 1.014 WHIP on the road this season (5-0 in eight starts). But Chatwood's career track record suggests he will not be able to keep this level of performance up. He's also recently had a problem going deep into games, failing to make it past the fifth in any of his L5 outings. Though he allowed only one hit in 5 IP his last time out, he also walked EIGHT batters! That came after allowing seven runs to a lousy Tampa Bay offense that had no DH his prior start. Of course, Colorado's offense also greatly decreases when they take their act out on the road. At Coors Field, their 6.2 rpg average leads all of baseball. But they dip to 24th in runs per game on the road at just 4.1. When it comes to run suppression at home, the Mets are one of the best teams in baseball (4th), allowing just 3.5 rpg. They'll have Stephen Matz toeing the rubber tonight as he looks to follow up on a fantastic outing where he blanked Miami for six innings, allowing only four hits. The Rockies have never faced him. I haven't even mentioned yet how the Mets have lost the last two games w/ closer Jeurys Familia blowing save opportunities for the first time all season. The Mets outhit the Rockies yday and are 6-1 coming off their last seven losses. Colorado is still only 27-67 on the road the L2 years when facing a team that has a winning record. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
07-29-16 | A's v. Indians -154 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This weekend series hosting Oakland is one where the first place Indians have to clean up. While not in any kind of terrible danger (have the largest division lead in the A.L), the Tribe have stagnated a bit since the All-Star Break by going just 5-6. Remember that right before the Break, they put together an impressive 14-game win streak. At home, I don't see them having much problem with the A's, who rank as one of the American League's worst ballclubs. In fact, this matchup pits the team w/ the best run differential in the AL (+84) against a team with the second worst run differential (-69). That sounds like a mismatch to me and I don't think the Indians are priced nearly high enough for Friday. Take them in the opener. Cleveland should be well-rested for this series as they've already had two days off this week (Monday, Thursday). They just played a quick two-game set here at Progressive Field against Washington, splitting the games. While coming away w/ a split was a little fortunate (had big rally to win on Tuesday - I took them!), that was against a much tougher opponent than they'll face here. Also, it probably took a little adjusting for the players, who hadn't played a home game since before the All-Star Break (due to the Republican National Convention). The Tribe plays 18 of their next 23 at home, so I anticipate they'll have a strong August. As for Oakland, they might be 9-4 overall since the Break, but this is a still a team being outscored by a full run per game on the road over the course of the season. Cleveland is 11-4 its L15 series openers. Looking at the pitching matchup, we have two starters that have been trending in opposite directions. Oakland's Kendall Graveman has a shocking 8-0 TSR his L8 starts, but I get the sense that regression is about to set in as he carries a 5.25 ERA and 1.543 WHIP on the road this season. Plus, he has a 2-6 TSR his L8 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. He's off a rare complete game effort and has topped 100 pitches in three of his past four starts. For Cleveland, Trevor Bauer is 0-3 in July, but had an outstanding June where he allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of six starts. Coming into this month, he was 7-2 w/ a 3.02 ERA this season. It's a case of progression vs. regression to the mean for the respective starting pitchers in this one while the far better team asserts itself. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
07-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
10* Over Orioles/Blue Jays (7:05 ET): I've got the feeling that this might turn into a pretty big weekend for Toronto as they host the team that's in first place in their division. Not only is Baltimore pretty bad on the road (21-27), especially compared to how they perform at home (37-16), but for most of this season the Blue Jays have had the superior run differential to the Orioles (currently +81 vs. +32). So this is Toronto's chance to show that the numbers are correct and they are indeed the better team. That being said, I'm a little "gun-shy" on pulling the trigger on the Jays in this one. What I do know is that this is a matchup of a top 5 (Toronto) and top 8 (Baltimore) offense in terms of runs scored. That has me on the Over in the series opener. | |||||||
07-28-16 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* Under Red Sox/Angels (10:05 ET): Boston is likely to be amped for this series as I'm sure they recall what happened the last time they played the Angels. Though they did end up taking two of the three games in the series, it is the loss that stands out as they were massacred 21-2 at Fenway Park. That and a 13-0 win over Kansas City on Tuesday are almost single-handedly responsible for the Halos being "in the black" when it comes to YTD run differential (now +4), which is something that not even the first place team in their division (Texas) can claim. That all being said, I'm going to stay away from the side in this game. Though they've now dropped four of six, LA has won all six of its home games since the All-Star Break, which should be respected. What I anticipate here is a low-scoring affair. Take the Under. We know that Boston has the highest scoring offense in baseball and here they'll be facing a pitcher (Jered Weaver) who just allowed six runs in his last start. I went against Weaver and the Angels in that spot (at Houston) and they lost 7-2. Weaver now has a 5.32 ERA and 1.451 WHIP for the season. Again, this doesn't sound too promising when playing the Under. But consider that Weaver had allowed just 2 ER in his previous 13 IP before the Astros start and he's rarely delivered B2B "bad" starts over the course of the year. Consider that the Under is 64-31-1 in Weaver's L103 starts at home. The Under is 7-3-1 his L11 starts vs. the Red Sox. It's also 6-2 in the Angels' last eight series openers. Also in need of a rebound is Boston's David Price, who has now allowed 11 hits in B2B outings. Clearly, Price has not lived up to the big-money contract he signed in the off-season. But before his last start (in Minnesota), the Under had cashed in four straight starts and is 9-2 in Price's L11 starts overall. On the road, the Red Sox scoring average dips by more than a full run per game. Therefore, it shouldn't be too surprising to see that the Under has cashed in four straight road games. They were just held to two and three runs in two of the games against Detroit in the last series, where they were surprisingly swept at home. This will be a lower scoring game than expected. 10* Under Red Sox/Angels | |||||||
07-28-16 | Royals v. Rangers -159 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): Both division winners from a year ago, Kansas City and Texas are both experiencing some regression here in the second half of the season. I can't say I'm surprised in either instance as both clubs had been outperforming (in terms of wins and losses) their YTD run differential heading into the All-Star Break. Texas, despite still being 14 games over .500 and in first place in the AL West, actually now has a scoring differential of 0 for the year. Not only does that place them eighth in the American League, it's just fourth best in the division and actually lower than the last place Angels! Kansas City though is in worse shape. They've dipped to two games below .500 and have actually been outscored by 50 runs this year, which suggests the record should be even worse. The reigning World Series Champs have been an awful road team all season (17-32). That and Cole Hamels going for the Rangers are the difference makers in this one. | |||||||
07-28-16 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -124 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
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07-27-16 | Rockies v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Rockies/Orioles (7:05 ET): Given the kind of numbers these two offenses tend to produce, the expectation here would be for a bit of a slugfest and that's reflected w/ a pretty high total here. But, in case you haven't been paying attention, Baltimore currently finds itself in the midst of a historic Under streak at 14 straight! The opener of this series (3-2 Orioles win) produced only five runs and while yesterday that number jumped to nine (Colorado won 6-3), I anticipate that scoring will again be sparse tonight. It's not just the Under streak for the O's. You also have the fact that the Rockies offense drops off dramatically outside of Coors Field while the O's offense has (not coincidentally) been virtually non-existent since the All-Star Break. Take the Under. The fact that Colorado goes from 6.1 rpg at home down to 4.1 rpg on the road should not surprise anyone given "the park effect" of Coors Field. But what most people also don't realize is that the pitching improves rather dramatically on the road as well. In terms of ERA, the Rockies staff ranks a surprising sixth in all of baseball in road games. That's just ahead of both the Cubs and Giants. So, the result is the Under is 31-19 in all Rockies' road games. Tonight's starter Jon Gray has been really sharp of late w/ a 1.33 ERA and 0.984 WHIP his L3 starts. Of course, it helps that he's only faced Atlanta and Philadelphia during that time. But, again, since the Break Baltimore has not scored more than five runs in any game. They've scored just 35 runs total in 11 games. Looking at the Orioles starter, Dylan Bundy looked great his last time out, holding the Indians to just one run and five hits in five innings. Both of his starts so far have stayed Under the total. He hasn't necessarily given the team a lot of innings, but that's okay considering how well skipper Buck Showalter does with the bullpen. Overall, Baltimore's last seven games have averaged just 6.5 rpg with them batting only .227 and their opponents at .216. Colorado's road games see an average of just 8.0 rpg scored, which is more than four fewer per game than at home. By the way, the Under is 4-0 in Gray's last four starts and 5-1 the Rockies' last six games overall. 10* Under Rockies/Orioles | |||||||
07-27-16 | Rays v. Dodgers -175 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -175 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
7* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): The Dodgers held on last night for a 3-2 win, handing the Rays their fourth consecutive loss in the process. The reality of the matter is that this should be a relatively easy two-game set for Dodger Blue. Tampa Bay just flat out isn't very good. They've lost a stunning 42 out of their last 60 games and are just 3-15 their L18 on the road. Not surprisingly then, they find themselves in last place in the American League East w/ a -59 run differential and 38-61 record, perilously close to having the worst record in the entire league. This team doesn't score much either, ranking just 26th in runs scored overall and they are of course w/out the DH here at Dodger Stadium, a noted pitcher-friendly park, where visiting teams average just 3.1 rpg to begin with (.219 batting average). I look for a Dodgers sweep. | |||||||
07-27-16 | Phillies v. Marlins -163 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Miami (12:10 ET): Over the last two days, these teams have exchanged shutout victories. Yesterday, it was the Marlins coming out on top 5-0 as Tom Koehler and the bullpen combined to allow only four hits. Miami's own offense not only obviously didn't do anything Monday, but they had just one run on the board entering the home half of the eighth last night. Giancarlo Stanton's RBI single in the sixth actually snapped a 24-inning scoreless streak. But after they piled on late yday, don't be surprised to see a big day at the plate here. Day games have seen this offense hit a collective .277 this season. For a team currently holding one of the two Wild Card spots, this is a series the Marlins simply cannot afford to lose. I have made this statement numerous times throughout the season, but it bears repeating. Philadelphia, while it doesn't have a good record, should feel fortunate to even be 10 games below .500. Their YTD run differential of -98 is third worst in all of baseball. Only Atlanta and Cincinnati are worse. Based on that run differential, one would "expect" the Phillies to actually be 24 games below .500. That's tied with the Rangers for the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected win total, whether it be positive or negative. A 20-12 record in one-run games has kept them somewhat afloat, but even there we've started to see some regression. Three times in the last nine games the Phils have dropped a one-run game; two of those came at home to Miami last week. Overall, the Marlins have only managed to split 12 games this season vs. the Phillies. Again, they need to be better if they hope to make the postseason. Consider that Philadelphia is just 9-26 its L35 games vs. teams with winning records, including 4-13 on the road. Wednesday starter Zach Eflin is coming off a complete game shutout vs. Pittsburgh, which lowered his season ERA to 3.40, but his ground ball vs. fly ball percentage is not what you want to see and I question how he'll perform after throwing 100+ pitches in B2B starts. Miami has won five of Adam Conley's previous seven outings and he has a 2.63 ERA and 1.024 WHIP during that time. Six times during that stretch, he's given up 2 ER or fewer. 8* Miami | |||||||
07-26-16 | Braves v. Twins -180 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -180 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): At first glance, this seems to be a bit of an obscene price on the lowly Twins, but as a reminder they are the home team in this battle of the worst teams from both the American and National Leagues. Well, Cincinnati actually has a slightly worse run differential than Atlanta (-142 to -138), but the Braves' record is worse. Their run differential is also significantly worse than Minnesota's (-81). So you can start to see some justification for the Twins being in this price range for just the SECOND time in the past three seasons. Throw in the fact that they are on pace for a winning July (12-8) and I'm all over them here. Despite facing playoff contenders Cleveland, Detroit and Boston since the All-Star Break (Cleveland & Boston have the two best run differentials in the AL), the Twins more than "held their own" in going 5-5 overall. Tonight they send Ervin Santana to the hill and while his TSR remains pretty bad, he's shown definite signs of improvement of late by posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.797 WHIP his L3 starts. During that time, we've seen him toss a complete game shutout (two-hitter) against Oakland here at home and then last time out he held Detroit to just one run over seven innings. The discrepancy between his WHIP (1.141) and ERA (4.22) signals to me that he is line for some better results moving forward. Meanwhile, even the thin air at Coors Field could not get this woeful Atlanta offense on track as they managed only 12 runs in that four-game series while being swept. The team has lost 8 of 10 since the Break and only twice have they topped three runs in a game during this time. They are 30th (last) in runs scored this year as well as 30th in slugging and team batting average. In OBP, they rank 29th. That's trouble with Lucas Harrell starting tonight as the right-hander has allowed 11 runs (in just 9 2/3 IP) his L2 starts. The Twins offense has been "sneaky good" over the last two months, especially in terms of hitting home runs. Overall, they scored 18 runs the L2 games vs. Boston. The AL traditionally dominates IL play, so I expect that to translate here in the battle of the worst teams from each league w/ the AL team being at home. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
07-26-16 | Nationals v. Indians -140 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians are glad to be back home after being swept over the weekend in Baltimore. Despite that disappointing result, I don't view the AL Central leaders as being in any kind of trouble as they still sport the best run differential in their league (+86) and have a 5.5 game lead in the division. But they'll clearly need to "step their game up" the next two days as they welcome Washington to town. The Nats are one of just three teams in baseball that has a better run differential than the Indians and both of these teams are on the short list for best starting rotations in the game. Washington may have the better 'pen, but Cleveland is excellent at home (26-16) and has Danny Salazar starting. Go w/ them. Salazar is a real key to this play. He's worked his way into Cy Young contention by going 11-3 w/ the third lowest ERA in the American League (2.75). He hasn't taken a loss since May 22nd, going 7-0 since that time (nine starts). Overall, Cleveland has the best starting rotation in the American League as it is #1 in ERA, so that's what Washington is up against here. There have been just two starts all season where Salazar has allowed more than three earned runs. That puts a lot of pressure on Nats' starter Gio Gonzalez, who actually is off one of his better outings in recent memory. But the team is still only only 3-8 his L11 starts overall and he has a 4.85 ERA on the road (3-6 TSR) and that's while typically facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup. Another big key for these teams moving forward is the respective schedules. All nine of Cleveland's games since the All-Star Break have come out on the road while all nine of Washington's took place at home. So, Cleveland's 4-5 record actually looks a bit better than Washington's, especially seeing as the Nats just dropped two of three to the lowly Padres, including allowing a season-high 10 runs Sunday. Thanks to the Republican National Convention and All-Star Break, the Indians actually haven't played a home game in over two weeks. 20 of their next 25 games are here at Progressive Field, so there's an opportunity for a big August. They've won seven straight Interleague games as well. Washington, who is embarking on a 10-game road trip, is just 7-14 the L3 seasons when priced between +125 and +150 on the money line in road games. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
07-26-16 | Cubs -170 v. White Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -170 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): The Cubbies' perceived invincibility has taken a bit of a hit this month (just 8-12 in July), but even after taking a disappointing loss yday to the White Sox, there is no doubt in my mind that they remain the best team in baseball. Their +149 run differential for the year remains way ahead of the rest of the pack and yday saw them acquire closer extraordinaire Aroldis Chapman, thereby solidifying the team's lone "weakness." I see the Northside getting a little revenge here in the "Battle for Chicago" Tuesday before the series heads to Wrigley for the next two games. The White Sox remain a team littered with issues and the fact they don't have Chris Sale going in this series really hurts them. Over their last three starts respectively, both of tonight's starters have pitched very well. The Cubs' Kyle Hendricks has allowed all of one run (it was unearned) during that time and has a 1.019 WHIP. The White Sox' James Shields has a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP over the same time, but there's been a big difference in terms of results for the two pitchers. Hendricks has a 3-0 TSR while Shields is 0-3. This is a reflection on the White Sox poor hitting. The club ranks 24th in runs scored and while they scored five times in Monday's walkoff win, they've scored more only one time since the All-Star Break. Remember that this offense was infamously shutout three straight times earlier this month. I really like Hendricks' chances here. Note that among the Cubs five "regular" starters, he has lowest overall WHIP. The team has also won his L6 starts overall! As for Shields, whether it was with the Padres or now with the White Sox, he's been one of the biggest money-burning starters in all of baseball w/ a 5-15 TSR resulting in a loss of 10.5 units. He continues to be plagued by the longball as he's given up six home runs in his last five starts. His strikeout numbers are also below par. The Cubs have typically been a very good bounce back team all season, going 23-14 off a loss, and bounce back is what I expect them to do this evening in this nationally televised matchup. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-25-16 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
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07-25-16 | Yankees v. Astros -147 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -147 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): Though I'm taking both teams tonight, I would not be surprised to see the Astros eventually pass the Rangers for the AL West lead. When it comes to run suppression, they are second best in the American League, having allowed only one more than Cleveland. On the subject of run suppression, tonight Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound. Last year, Keuchel was virtually unbeatable here at Minute Maid Park, turning in a 16-0 WL record in 19 starts (17-2 TSR), but 2016 has been a bit of a different story. Still, there have been signs of him turning things around (2.33 ERA, 1.035 WHIP L3 starts overall) plus the team has now won four straight (allowed only 6 runs!) after sweeping the Angels over the weekend. The Yankees season is on the verge of ending once they deal away their bullpen assets. I like Keuchel and Houston in tonight's series opener. Keuchel has delivered four straight quality starts, allowing 2 ER or less while going at least six innings every time out. A 4-3 loss to Oakland his last time out was the first time the team had lost w/ him on the mound in six starts. Note that was a no decision for Keuchel as the loss was on the bullpen, which allowed all four runs. Given his past history against the Yankees, including LY's Wild Card Game, I expect a strong effort here out of Keuchel. Earlier this year, he held the Yanks to two runs and three hits in seven innings, improving to 3-1 lifetime against them (1.45 ERA). He starts on five days' rest here and has a 20-8 team start record when doing so. Going for the Yankees tonight will be Michael Pineda. While he's coming off a super showing (six shutout innings vs. Baltimore), that was at home and as a -210 favorite on the money line. The odds are certainly not in Pineda's favor here considering the Astros are 21-6 their L27 home games. Also, the Yankees are just 6-13 their L19 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I was surprised to see New York take the series from the Giants over the weekend, but again, it's only a matter of time until this bullpen gets broken up. Meanwhile, Houston's roster is getting stronger with the callup of top rated prospect Alex Bregman for today's game. Before the Baltimore start, Pineda had allowed 5 ER in B2B starts. 8* Houston | |||||||
07-25-16 | A's v. Rangers -142 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): July has been very unkind to the Rangers (just 6-13), but quite frankly all of 2016 has been unkind to the A's, who are languishing well below .500 and have the second worst run differential (-73) in the entire American League. Oakland did just win three straight games, all by one run, over Tampa Bay. But the fact Texas just won B2B games in Kansas City is obviously far more impressive. The Rangers know a thing or two about winning one-run games (20-7 record), which is why their record is 15 games above .500 despite only a +4 run differential. I'd been primarily fading them following the All-Star Break, but I don't think there's any denying they're clearly the better team here. Somewhat shocking is the fact that the A's are 16-6 their L22 games here in Arlington, but this is their first visit here in 2016. I'm going w/ the home team. Texas has been a strong home team all year w/ a 29-15 record here. Note they've only played here four times in the L28 days. One player on the team that has to be ecstatic to be back in Arlington is pitcher Martin Perez, who is coming off a rather disastrous three-start stretch (all on the road) where his ERA and WHIP ended up being 10.91 and 2.042 respectively. But here at home, his numbers are solid (2.48, 1.307) and his team start record is 6-3 (he's 6-1 personally). The team has won his L5 starts here and 20 of 28 overall against teams with losing records. Perez has faced the A's twice this year (both times in Oakland remember) and both times allowed 4 runs in 7 IP. I expect him to be better tonight as the A's come in averaging just 3.1 rpg their last seven and this is their first time playing on the road since the All-Star Break. This is the Rangers first time being back at home since the Break. The starter Oakland is bringing to this fight is certainly not someone worth fearing as Daniel Mengden has similar numbers to Perez over his L3 starts (10.38, 2.077), but the difference is that his season-long numbers are pretty bad as well (5.52, 1.545). As a result, the team has come out on the losing end six of the last eight times he's started. This is the first time since 2014 that they've won three consecutive series and they haven't had a win streak of more than three games since the start of June. They were a little lucky to beat the Rays three straight days as they took the lead in the eighth inning or later every time. Time to "sell high" on a bad team. 8* Texas | |||||||
07-25-16 | Montreal v. Toronto -6.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 154 h 13 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:30 ET): Both of these Eastern Division rivals will have been off for at least 10 days when they take the field Monday night at BMO Field. Both are also coming off humbling defeats. Toronto's came here at home, 30-20 against Ottawa, leaving them 2-2 on the young season. Montreal, meanwhile, got crushed 31-7 by Hamilton, which leaves them at 1-2. Interestingly enough, the Argonauts have now lost both home games, but are 2-0 on the road. The Alouettes have lost both of their home games, but are 1-0 on the road. These unusual dichotomies will come to an end here, however, as I'll call for the Argos to win big. Lay the points. Of course, home teams across the Great White North have struggled this season. Incredibly, they are just 4-13-1 straight up in all games. That's pretty remarkable. Eventually though, the tide will turn. We saw Saskatchewan win at home on Friday, for starters. Now it's Toronto's turn. Note that they did lead Ottawa 13-0 here before the wheels came off (scored 30-7 the rest of the way). Offensively, the Argos are having their issues, but right now Montreal has it much worse as the Als come in averaging just 14.0 points per game and have scored a total of 20 the last two games. These home struggles for Toronto and the rest of the league just seem odd. One thing is for certain; the Argos remember a 34-2 loss here to the Als last season. I mentioned Toronto's offense earlier and it is struggling. They are last in the league in YPG, which is quite uncharacteristic for a Scott Milanovich coached team. Over the L4 years, his offenses have ranked third, fourth, fourth and sixth respectively. While that's a downward trajectory, this group has nowhere to go but up right now. One good thing is they haven't turned the ball over in three weeks. The defense, I though, did it's job vs. the REDBLACKS last week. That game was basically decided on a punt return for touchdown. Yes, Kevin Glenn returns at pivot (QB) this week for the Als, but this team is just not right presently as multiple injuries have hurt them, literally and figuratively. 10* Toronto | |||||||
07-25-16 | Tigers v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -142 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): I'd place both of these teams within a grouping of three in their respective divisions. In the case of Boston, they're battling both Baltimore and Toronto right now for the AL East crown. They enter the day just 1.5 games back of the Orioles for first place. One could make the argument that the Red Sox are the best their division has to offer given their +86 run differential not only tops everybody else in the East, but it is tied for best in the entire A.L. Meanwhile, Detroit is just battling for second in the AL Central (w/ Kansas City and Chicago), in my opinion. Though still three games above .500 for the year, the Tigers have been outscored and just dropped two games yday to the White Sox. Though they only had to play one more inning than usual Sunday (Saturday's game was suspended after eight innings and thus they only had to make up the ninth), it puts the visitors at a distinct disadvantage. | |||||||
07-24-16 | Braves v. Rockies -195 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
6* Colorado (4:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break, in Atlanta, and the Rockies missed out on a chance to sweep, dropping the final game 1-0. Needless to say, that kind of score shouldn't reasonably be expected here today at Coors Field where the Rocks have already beaten the Braves three days in a row and now go for the four-game sweep. Atlanta's offense is so poor that it is unlikely to be aided by even the thin air here. They've scored just 10 runs in the series and rank dead last in all of baseball in runs scored this year. Winning a slugfest is basically the only shot a visiting team has here in Denver and that's simply not the way the Braves are presently constructed. Colorado averages 6.2 rpg at home for the season. Now Rockies starter Tyler Chatwood has certainly shown signs of regression and one might question whether or not he deserves to be in this lofty price range. Tyler Anderson certainly did yday though and it should be pointed out that Atlanta has now been outscored by 133 runs over the course of the season, second worst in all of baseball (Reds). Chatwood is definitely feeling the effects of Coors Field as his ERA here (6.26) is roughly FIVE points higher than it is on the road (1.30). Yes, the effect this ballpark can have on a pitcher absolutely must be taken into account. But my take is that if a pitcher can be that effective on the road, that should translate wherever he pitches. Chatwood didn't even get to face the Braves in the previous series and had allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his first 15 starts overall this season. Hopeless Atlanta counters w/ Tyrell Jenkins, who has made just two big-league starts and you'd expect to struggle in his first foray into Coors. Jenkins certainly hasn't pitched poorly in his first two outings, but you'll want to note that he also benefited from facing two of of the easiest possible opponents, Philadelphia and Cincinnati. The Braves are generally terrible in all situations, but they've really struggled during the daytime, going 49-74 the L3 seasons including 12-19 in 2016. On average, they are being outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year. 6* Colorado | |||||||
07-24-16 | Indians -129 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -129 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:35 ET): While Baltimore has been tremendous this season at Camden Yards (not so much on the road), I would have expected Cleveland to perform better than they have in the first two games of this series. Especially considering the huge edge in starting pitching they seemingly have on paper. While the Indians have given up the fewest number of runs of any American League team, Orioles starters have an ERA north of 5.00, which is almost unfathomable for a team in first place in its own division. But I look for that 35-14 home record to take a hit today as the Tribe sends Corey Kluber to the hill. Honestly, the way that Cleveland's rotation set up for this series wasn't great, but Kluber should take care of business. | |||||||
07-24-16 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -170 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
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07-23-16 | Valentina Shevchenko v. Holly Holm | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -210 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
5* Holly Holm (10:00 ET): While many casual observers are predicting a close fight here, one thing is not up for debate. That's the fact that the line has come WAY down on Holm, the former champion, since she opened at -435. I expect Holm to be available below -200 at most shops throughout the entirety of the afternoon. The sportsbooks aren't in the business of giving away "free money," so either they've made a terrible mistake in setting this line or bettors have gotten a bit carried away in betting against Holm. I'll go w/ the latter as she looks to rebound from the first defeat of her entire career. This now sets up as an outstanding value. Holm, of course, stunned the MMA world when she knocked out Ronda Rousey in 59 seconds last November. Rather than wait for what would have been a gigantic payday and rematch w/ Rousey, she chose instead to take on Miesha Tate in March and lost the bantamweight title, submitting to a rear-naked choke in the fifth round. Given that Rousey's MMA future certainly seems to be "in limbo," Holm eventually was going to have to fight someone else. But I think the critics have been too quick to dismiss her following just one loss. If Rousey were to return to UFC, Holm still has a potential huge payday awaiting here, even if the rematch wasn't for the title. So, she has plenty on the line here. I do not believe this is a case of "Buster Douglas" where some journeyman got lucky in the biggest fight of their career. Again, Holm was unbeaten (10-0) before losing to Tate. A big part of the reason that so many bettors are choosing to get down on the underdog Shevchenko here is because her last loss was to Amanda Nunes. Yes, the same Amanda Nunes that just beat Tate, who beat Holm. Regardless of the sport, A > B and B > C does not always necessarily mean A > C. In this sport, styles make fights. Besides, Shevchenko LOST to Nunes. It might be another thought entirely had she won that fight. That Nunes fight was Shevchenko's last and her only other fight for UFC resulted in a split decision victory. The books clearly have a lot of liability on her here and I'm going to exploit that by taking the now underpriced favorite. 5* Holly Holm | |||||||
07-23-16 | Dodgers -119 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
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07-23-16 | Angels v. Astros -180 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
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07-22-16 | Rays v. A's -114 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
9* Oakland (10:05 ET): Well, one selection that did not work out for me was the A's last night. They quickly fell behind 2-0, but actually did come back to take a brief 3-2. It was all downhill from there though as the Rays were responsible for the game's final five runs and won 7-3. But I believe tonight will be different. The Rays still don't scare me as they were just 2-12 here in July prior to a current three-game win streak. They'd also lost 11 straight road games. Like Tampa Bay, Oakland is a last place team, but at home they should be able to take care of business. A's rookie Sean Manea certainly faced a steep learning curve in this his rookie season. But after a rough first few outings, he's generally been a lot better. In fact, he hasn't allowed a run in two of his last three starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in four of his last six. One thing is for certain and that's he'll be well-rested tonight as this is his first time pitching since the All-Star Break. The last time he started a game was July 10th and for seven innings he blanked a very hot Houston team (allowed only five hits). That's definitely an encouraging sign. Let's not forget that Tampa Bay has one of the lowest scoring offenses in the entire American League (only six runs ahead of lowest scoring team). The Rays are going w/ Jake Odorizzi and he's coming off one of his better outings of the season. But his ERA/WHIP over his L3 starts are still 7.16 and 1.592 respectively, which should tell you something right there (hint: the other two starts were very bad). Odorizzi did not fare well when he faced Oakland earlier this year, giving up five runs in just four innings of work. The A's took two of three in that series at Tropicana Field, so theoretically they should be able to manage at least a split here at home this weekend. 9* Oakland | |||||||
07-22-16 | Angels v. Astros -149 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): Something I did not anticipate writing a week ago is that the Los Angeles Angels are currently the hottest team in all of baseball. They've won all six games since the All-Star Break, sweeping the White Sox and Rangers. Against the former, it was all about the pitching as they held Chicago to just one run in three games. Versus the latter, it was the offense that carried the team by scoring 24 runs. But here they are running into an opponent that has been the equivalent of their "kryptonite" in 2016, that being division rival Houston. Since losing 7-2 to the Halos back on May 27th, the Astros have beaten them eight straight times, including six straight wins back at the end of June. I like them to win again tonight and thus cool off the hottest team in baseball. Though they've won these last six games (I had them on Wednesday), I'm not ready to change my overall view of this Angels ballclub. They remain nine games below .500 and I do not see them working their way back into playoff contention. The pitching we saw vs. the White Sox and hitting we saw vs. Texas are both likely to regress moving forward. Five times this year, they've been held to two runs or fewer by Astros pitching. At the same time, Houston's offense has scored seven or more runs four times. The Astros, 7-0 winners in their last game, have been one of the AL's hottest teams over the last two months, going 33-16 L49 games. Injuries to the starting rotation will ultimately catch up with the Angels. Matt Shoemaker is now the de facto ace. While he's coming off his 1st career shutout, his TSR for the year is only 6-12 and he sports a 5.01 ERA and 1.411 WHIP in nine road starts. That's not very encouraging. I expect Shoemaker to be outdueled tonight by Lance McCullers, who has a 2.35 ERA in five career starts vs. the Angels. McCullers faced them once earlier this year and allowed just one run in 5 2/3 innings. The Under is a perfect 7-0 in his home starts this season and obviously he's played a major role in that w/ a 2.61 ERA here at Minute Maid Park. I'm not buying this Angels team at all and think this win streak is simply a mirage. 8* Houston | |||||||
07-22-16 | Dallas Wings +4 v. Atlanta Dream | Top | 88-93 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): The Wings are in a bad way right now as they've lost five in a row and are still w/o the services of Glory Johnson. They are off an embarrassing loss, as seven-point home favorites, to Connecticut on Wednesday. I concede that I made a mistake laying the points in that one as the favorite role has not suited Dallas well as they've now lost outright the last three times they were in it. But tonight, as a dog, I think Skylar Diggins and company offer a solid value in Atlanta. Take the points here. The Wings' opponent here, Atlanta, is off its own embarrassing defeat, that being an 83-65 setback at the hands of Minnesota. Going from 13-point dogs to being favored is quite the swing by the oddsmakers, especially since the Dream failed to cover there. In fact, this will be the first time in the last five games that Atlanta is favored. Following an ATS loss this year, the Dream are just 2-6 ATS. Sharp money seems to have shown up on the underdog here as the number has come down even though the majority of bets have been placed on Atlanta. That's always a good sign. This would be a double revenge spot for the Wings, who have lost twice to the Dream this season, once in overtime. That OT loss occurred on July 8th and is one of two OT losses Dallas has suffered in its last five games. Six of this team's last nine losses have come by five points or less. So, they're probably better than their record shows. This is actually a triple revenge spot if you go back to the final meeting of 2015. 8* Dallas | |||||||
07-22-16 | Giants -107 v. Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (7:05 ET): The Giants went into the All-Star Break with the most wins in all of MLB, but they have lost all five of their games in the second half, all out on the road. That includes one w/ Madison Bumgarner on the bump as the big southpaw uncharacteristically allowed four runs against the Padres exactly one week ago. But, for a number of reasons, I'm betting big on the NL West leaders snapping this season-worst losing skid of theirs. Obviously, they have Bumgarner and the rest he has vs. the rest counterpart Masahiro Tanaka has is a very big deal. More on that later. Speaking of rest, the Giants had yesterday off while the Yankees had to play the Orioles and lost 4-1 (I had Baltimore). For the second straight day, I'm going against the guys in pinstripes. | |||||||
07-22-16 | Indians -107 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
9* Cleveland (7:05 ET): I took Baltimore yday, but if you look at the analysis, you'll note that I explicitly stated I don't have a ton of faith in this team long-term. I also didn't have much regard for their Thursday opponent (Yankees), but I certainly have a ton of respect for the team they welcome into Camden Yards this week, Cleveland. The Indians are the best team in the American League from where I sit as they have the best record (56-38) and run differential (+95). This series is not a good matchup for the Orioles right now as their lineup, which has been ravaged by injury and a nasty flu bug, will have to contend with the best starting rotation in the American League. I look for the Tribe to take tonight's series opener. Another key edge for the Indians this weekend is they won't be facing Baltimore's best pitcher, Chris Tillman, who started yday. As mentioned above, I went w/ Tillman and the O's against the Yankees as they avoided what would have been an embarrassing four-game sweep in the Bronx. Take Tillman starts out of the equation and Baltimore actually has a losing record this season (one game below .500). This team simply lacks the horses in the starting rotation. Another problem though is that since the All-Star Break, they are simply not hitting. In the seven games, they have scored only 14 runs and are batting a collective .196. A big reason for that is a stomach bug that has ravaged the club house, taking Chris Davis and Manny Machado (returned Thurs) out of the lineup. Even skipper Buck Showalter was affected. Also, Hyun Soo-Kim, Adam Jones, Joey Rickard and Matt Wieters are all players dealing w/ various injuries. Having a slumping lineup is never a good thing, but especially when getting set to face this awesome Cleveland rotation. Up first in this series will be Trevor Bauer. Though Bauer's numbers from his last two starts are less than ideal, note that he'd allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his first 12. Like most Indians starters, Bauer has good strikeout numbers and this Baltimore lineup tends to swing and miss a lot. I certainly like Bauer's chances here facing off against rookie starter Dylan Bundy, who was rocked in his big-league debut, giving up four runs in just 3 1/3 IP. The Indians just won B2B games in Kansas City, which is no small feat, and have the benefit of having had Thursday off. 9* Cleveland | |||||||
07-21-16 | Rays v. A's -124 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -124 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
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07-21-16 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I'm selecting the Tigers +1.5. Given the White Sox general inability to score many runs, I think the run line happens to be an excellent option here. After being shutout in the final game before the All-Star Break (by Atlanta!), the Sox scored a grand total of just one run in a three-game series vs. the Angels where they obviously were swept. They did score 14 runs in the most recently completed series, vs. Seattle, but even that was not enough as they suffered two crushing losses in the final at-bat. Now, Detroit has hardly been "hitting the cover off the baseball" themselves as they scored only four runs in three games against Minnesota. But in a matchup where runs could very well be at a premium, the RL is the way to go, in my opinion. These division rivals have met six times already this year and the TIgers are 4-2 in those games. Three took place in the Motor City and three took place here at U.S. Cellular Field. One of Detroit's two losses in Chicago came by one run, which obviously is a situation that's just fine given how I'm playing this game. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing the kind of slugfests we saw the last time these teams met on the Southside. I want to note how the White Sox have played a lot of one-run games this year (32), tied for second most in all of baseball. Again, whether they win by one run or lose by one run (like they did twice vs. Seattle), it's fine by me. I also think the team could be a little demoralized after what happened out in Seattle. Don't discount the effect the long-trip back may have on the players either! James Shields certainly has gotten a lot better for Chicago as time has gone one, but the problem is that his offense failed to score even a single run for him in his last two outings. The last was a brutal 1-0 loss to the Angels. Overall, seven of Shields' 19 games started this season have been decided by one run. Remember also that this is the same pitcher that at one point allowed seven or more runs in four consecutive starts. One of those came against the Tigers. Detroit counters w/ Mike Pelfrey, who has actually allowed just two runs in his L2 starts away from home (12 1/3 IP). He's 1-1 vs. the White Sox in 2016. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) | |||||||
07-21-16 | Orioles -103 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:05 ET): Though I do not have a ton of faith in the Orioles long-term, I do believe they'll avoid the sweep today in the Bronx as they send their most successful starter to the bump. Chris Tillman may not have the greatest ERA or WHIP (though both numbers are certainly satisfactory) over the course of the season, but the bottom line is him having a 17-3 team start record, the result of which is a +15.2 net unit gain, the best in all of baseball. Tillman has also been outstanding lately w/ a 1.29 ERA and 1.048 WHIP his L3 starts as he's gone exactly 7 IP every time out while allowing just 1 ER (on only 12 hits). I look for Tillman to "do what he does" and that's lead Baltimore to the win. One pitcher that has NOT performed well lately is CC Sabathia. The old hefty lefty was actually a really nice story through mid-June, but his L5 starts have been a disaster. In those five, he's allowed a ghastly total of 27 runs in just 28 1/3 IP. Outside of one start against the slumping White Sox, he's failed to record more than three K's in any other outing. He's allowed 39 hits and 10 walks in those last 28 1/3 innings of work. He has a 7.41 ERA and 1.824 WHIP his L3 starts. Obviously, the Yankees bullpen has been tremendous, but I think the damage will be done by the time they are called into duty Thursday afternoon. Another interesting tidbit is that today is Sabathia's birthday. He has a 7.48 ERA in four career starts on his b-day. It would of course be nice if Tillman could get the kind of offensive support he was getting in the early part of the season. In the last five games, the Orioles have scored a grand total of six runs. It's been four straight losses and they were shutout yday (just fourth time all season, 1st since May 18th). While injuries and a nasty flu bug going through the locker room have certainly played roles in the recent offensive decline, the bottom line is that Baltimore has still had their fair share of chances to get runners home. But they've gone a woeful 3 for 33 w/ RISP since the All-Star Break, including 1 for 9 yday. The bottom third of the order was 0 for 9 Wednesday and can only improve today. This offense still ranks 2nd in slugging and 5th in team batting average overall (eighth in runs scored). 8* Baltimore | |||||||
07-21-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
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07-21-16 | Indiana Fever v. New York Liberty OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-70 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* Over Fever/Liberty (11:00 AM ET): Suffice to say, it will be difficult for Indiana to duplicate their performance from Tuesday where they beat 20-2 Los Angeles outright, 92-82 as five-point dogs. It wasn't their highest scoring output of the year (97 pts vs. PHX on 5.18 was), but they did shoot 55.9% against the top defensive team in the league (it was the most pts allowed in regulation this year by the Sparks). Now that being said, it was the third time in the last four games where the Fever shot 51% or better from the floor. So, offensively, I think Indiana will be just fine here even as they now draw the best team from the East, the Liberty, who are third in points allowed this season. Take the Over. I say that the Fever will be just fine offensively knowing full well what has transpired in their first two meetings this season w/ the Liberty. The first saw them held to 59 pts in a disastrous performance that saw them shoot just 32.8 percent. The rematch wasn't much better as they lost by three at home, 78-75. From an Over bettors' perspective, it was really bad, as the game stayed Under despite overtime. But the third time will be the charm. Actually, going back to last season, the Under has cashed in four straight Fever-Liberty matchups. Indiana has been a lot better since last facing New York on 6.19 at home. They've won six of nine and from a total bettors perspective, the Over has cashed in six of the last nine games as well. Four times during that span they've topped 90 pts. Six times they've scored at least 85 points. I started this writeup by mentioning how hard it would be for the Fever to match its performance from the prior game. Well, the same holds true for the Liberty in one regard. Yesterday (Weds afternoon), their bench scored 69 points, a WNBA record for reserves. They beat Washington 88-81. But while reserve scoring will go down, I certainly expect the starters to contribute more, thereby nullifying the decline from the bench. Of course, scoring has been on the rise overall this season in WNBA and both of these sides are averaging 80 points per game. I believe this total to be too low. 10* Over Fever/Liberty | |||||||
07-20-16 | Rangers v. Angels -138 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It speaks volumes that the first place Rangers find themselves in this price range, even on the road, against an Angels team that has Mike Trout and little else. But I've been poking holes in the Rangers' resume for some time now and will continue to as long as the numbers suggest I should. Note that they've lost both games here in Anaheim in high-scoring fashion (17 runs allowed) and now have only a +5 run differential for the year despite being 15 games over .500! They've regressed big-time here in July (just 4-11) while the Angels have actually come out of the Break red hot, winning all five games. I concur w/ the money line here and will call for the Halos to sweep! It should be noted that the Angels were slight favorites on the ML for the first two games as well. The reason for the increase tonight isn't just the fact they've taken those first two games, but also because they are sending a red hot pitcher to the mound, that being Hector Santiago. Over his last three starts, Santiago has allowed all of one run and it was unearned. He is currently working on a 22 inning scoreless streak and he looked absolutely dominant against the White Sox his last time out w/ 76 percent of his pitches going for strikes (7-0 KW rate) plus he induced 13 ground ball outs. Meanwhile, the Rangers pitching staff is in shambles right now and tonight's starter Martin Perez has played a role in that by allowing 17 runs in his last two starts (12 earned) in only 9 2/3 IP. On the road this season, Perez is just 1-5 w/ a 5.49 ERA and 1.525 WHIP. Remember what I said about Texas' run differential not matching its record? Well, the same could be said for the Angels, only the reverse is true. While they are still 10 games under .500, they have now actually outscored opponents (by 1 run) over the course of the season. So, to summarize, despite being 12.5 games back in the standing, the Angels have a nearly identical price range to the Angels. That says to me that they absolutely belong in this price range, particularly w/ Santiago pitching. Plus, Texas is due to keep "giving some back" after being - by far - the most profitable team to bet on in the first half. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
07-20-16 | San Antonio Stars v. Seattle Storm OVER 149 | Top | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
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07-20-16 | Indians -135 v. Royals | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (2:15 ET): For the first all season, the Indians were able to win a game here at Kauffman Stadium yday. They were previously 0-4 here in Kansas City and overall homefield advantage has played a big role in determining the winner of Indians-Royals games this year. Before yday's result, the home team had been 10-1. That's right in line w/ the overall home-road split we've seen from the Royals this season as they are 30-14 at home, but 17-32 on the road. This all might sound like I'm making a case for KC then this afternoon, but I'm not, as the homefield edge isn't as strong as Cleveland sending Carlos Carrasco to the bump. The Royals, remember, are a team I believe is going to slip here in the second half of the season. | |||||||
07-20-16 | Braves v. Reds -169 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
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07-20-16 | Connecticut Sun v. Dallas Wings -4.5 | Top | 89-78 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
8* Dallas (12:35 ET): Neither of these teams exactly roll into Wednesday in fine form. Dallas has lost four in a row, but two of those were in overtime, including the last time out. Here at home, the Wings played Minnesota tough, but ultimately came up one point short. That was a tough loss to swallow after rallying back from a double digit deficit in the fourth quarter. At least they left w/ the cash though as nine-point underdogs. They'll be favored here against a team w/ only six wins to its name all season. Connecticut has covered seven of eight, all as dogs, but I don't think they're getting enough help from the oddsmakers this afternoon and I'll lay the number. The Wings' biggest issue continues to be their defense, or rather lack their of. They currently rank dead last in the league in points allowed at 87.8 PPG. Of course, they've played four OT games, one of them a triple OT game, but still that's no excuse. Fortunately, the Sun come in ranked only eighth in league in scoring. Like I said earlier, Dallas has lost four in a row. But three of those defeats have come by a combined eight points. Connecticut knows a thing or two about losing close as they've done so the L2 games, first blowing a 16-point lead against Los Angeles and losing in overtime, then blowing a seven-point, third quarter lead against New York on Sunday. While Dallas figures to be highly motivated here, I question what the Sun have left in the tank. This is also a revenge spot for the home team, who lost outright to Connecticut back on July 2nd. The final score was 86-83 and they were nine-point favorites. While the oddsmakers have to account for them losing straight up there, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made for this rematch. Note Connecuticut shot 50% from the floor in that last meeting, which is very uncommon for them. In fact, that has happened only one other time for them all season, back on May 31st vs. Phoenix. That game also saw the Wings jump out to an early double digit advantage. They also hurt themselves by missing 11 of 13 three-point attempts. Won't happen this time around. 8* Dallas | |||||||
07-19-16 | White Sox -107 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
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07-19-16 | LA Sparks v. Indiana Fever UNDER 160.5 | Top | 82-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
8* Under Sparks/Fever (8:05 ET): Los Angeles, now 20-2 SU this season, is off a humbling defeat at the hands of Atlanta, 91-74 as 7.5-pt road chalk. I'm proud to say I was on the right side of that one, and while the Sparks seem similarly overvalued here, I don't dare fade them as they'll clearly be motivated to bounce back from just their second defeat of the season. As for Indiana, they beat the Dream their last time out, 78-72 in come from behind fashion. It was the fourth time they've covered in the last five games. But putting aside the ATS result here, let's look at the total. The number is starting to come down and given there's no real such thing as "public money" in WNBA betting, I'll follow the steam trigger and take the Under! The Sparks have now given up 90+ points in B2B games. Note that they hadn't allowed 90 in any of their first 20 games this season! The game at Connecticut did go into overtime and really the team did "tighten the screws" after halftime, allowing just 37 total points. This is after all the top defensive team in the league this year at just 75.1 points per game. It wasn't as if they allowed Atlanta to shoot all that well Sunday afternoon (43.5 FG%). A big key was the Dream going 27 of 31 from the free throw line. I expect Los Angeles to bounce back defensively here, plus the Under is 6-1 this season when the Sparks are playing w/ exactly one day's rest. Now, I'm well aware what happened the last time these two teams hooked up. Los Angeles won obviously, but it was high-scoring affair, 94-88. Note though that BOTH teams shot better than 53% from the floor in that game. That is highly unlikely to happen again tonight. Indiana shot 51.7% from the floor in their last game, so regression is already in order. For the season, they are shooting just 44 percent. For them, the Under has cashed in two-thirds of the games where they are the underdog (8 of 12). It should be pointed out that before storming back to beat Atlanta on Friday, the Fever scored only nine points in the first quarter. 8* Under Sparks/Fever | |||||||
07-19-16 | Mets v. Cubs -132 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): Yes, I'm backing the Cubs again Tuesday and the rationale will essentially remain the same despite a different (more marquee) pitching matchup. I'll say this again - the Cubs are the best team in baseball & it's not even close. Just look at that run differential (+148)! Last night saw them beat the Mets for the first time in nine tries, which includes LY's NLCS as well as a four-game series earlier this month at Citi Field. I said the revenge angle would be strong here and it was w/ Jon Lester delivering a big-time quality start. Now, it's an even bigger gun that the Northsiders will be sending to the mound, Jake Arrieta, whose recent "struggles" are not a concern to me. Given the Mets hitting woes that I went through in yday's analysis, Arrieta is probably a pitcher they'd probably not face. Now they have beaten him the last two times they've seen him, in LY's NLCS and earlier this month, but I expect a much different result this go-around. He has a 1.65 ERA at home, for starters. The team is citing the All-Star Break and the rest they got as a real positive. It certainly has been for the pitching, which has allowed 1 or 0 ER in all three wins since the Break. With Arrieta, he's had a full 10 days off between starts. Remember, Lester had been shelled the last time he'd faced the Mets, then dominated them Monday. I think a similar transformation will be in order for Arrieta, who still has a 13-5 TSR mind you. The Mets are just 28th in runs scored, both on the road and overall. So, they'll be leaning heavily on Noah Syndergaard here. But Syndergaard's experienced his own fair share of trouble lately, namely failing to get past the fifth inning twice in his last three starts, both times against Washington. In between, he did pitch well against the Cubs. But those two bad starts leave his ERA/WHIP at 5.52/1.636 respectively his last three overall. I do not anticipate him getting much support here, which makes things even more difficult. These are two teams set to move in opposite directions here in the second half. This is a rather incredible price on the Cubs at home w/ Arrieta pitching. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-19-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Over Dodgers/Nationals (7:05 ET): This is a pretty big series in the Senior Circuit with two playoff hopefuls meeting up in the Nation's Capital. For Washington, it's also a shot at revenge after they were swept at Dodger Stadium last month. To me, the Nats have clearly emerged as the second best team in baseball behind the Cubs. They are #2 in run differential at +114. But I don't necessarily like the way their rotation sets up for this series, starting w/ Reynaldo Lopez (big league debut) tonight. At the same time, I won't be endorsing LA's Scott Kazmir, who has a winning record in spite of a poor ERA. Therefore, we turn to the total and I'm thinking Over here as Dodgers games have been significantly higher scoring on the road. Here's a little more on Lopez. He recently appeared in the "Future Stars" game during the All-Star Break. While he's flashed plenty of promise in the minor leagues, note that he's only been called up due to the injury to Joe Ross. Lucas Giolito, another minor-league callup, didn't do particularly well in his second spot start in place of Ross. Lopez began the year in Double-A, so this is a big jump up in class. The Dodgers scored 13 runs in the opening game of their previous series and have collected 10 or more hits in four straight games. Again, it should be noted that while the Under is a highly profitable 34-14 in Dodger home games, the Over has actually been a winning proposition when they take their act on the road. Their road games average 9.0 total runs scored. Of course, that also means the Dodgers allow more rpg on the road than they do at home (about 1.0 per game more). Kazmir has a 5.40 ERA in eight road starts, yet somehow has yet to taste defeat. But after lasting only three innings in his last start, I wonder what the team will be getting tonight. What we do know is that three of the Nats key hitters - Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Danny Espinosa all have homered against Kazmir despite having no more than seven career at-bats against him. In three career starts vs. Washington, Kazmir has a 4.14 ERA. I know Washington has gone Under in six straight, but expect them to break out the bats tonight while also giving up enough runs to allow this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Dodgers/Nationals | |||||||
07-18-16 | White Sox -144 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -144 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (10:10 ET): To say runs have been at a premium for the White Sox of late would be the mildest of understatements. They finally scored a run yesterday, but only a run (as in one), which followed three consecutive shutout losses dating back to the final game before the All-Star Break. It's not like the pitching of the Los Angeles Angels is typically to be feared, so the results of that series are pretty ominous for an offense that already ranked 24th in runs scored. But if they have one "ace" in the deck, it literally would be Chris Sale and he'll toe the rubber Monday against a Seattle team that scored all of two runs itself the last two games. Though Sale's numbers have dipped a bit recently, he'll be well rested here and in line for a strong outing. While Sale is off an embarrassing performance that saw him allow eight runs (in just five innings) to the Atlanta Braves, at least he has a strong career track record that we can base a play on. Like a 7-1 record and 0.959 WHIP in nine road starts this season. His strikeout numbers are down overall this year, but he does have 45 of them over his last six outings, in 40 IP. One would have to go all the way back to August of last season to find the last time Sale faced the Mariners, but it was a success as he beat Felix Hernandez here at Safeco Field, 11-4. Sale can certainly carry the White Sox to a victory, but I'm not sure there's a comparable starter left in the Mariners rotation that can do the same. This group is in shambles due to injuries, the most notable of which to King Felix, and there's some real journeymen currently doing "the heavy lifting." One such name is Wade LeBlanc, who is slated to be on the bump Monday. LeBlanc didn't last long his last time out, giving up five runs in just 3 1/3 innings to Houston on July 6th. That was a 9-8 loss for the team, who has now dropped seven of 10 as well as 28 of its last 46. Their YTD run differential is still pretty good (+41), especially for a team that's just .500, but in this instance I think the Mariners ship has sailed. In a game that promises to have little in the way of offense, I'm siding with the team that has - by far - the edge in starting pitching. 8* Chi White Sox | |||||||
07-18-16 | Padres v. Cardinals -168 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This Cardinals team just can't seem to get fully on track. Sure, they won for me on Saturday (in shutout fashion), but they lost to Miami both the day before and after. That leaves them at a very disappointing 20-28 at home. For a frame of reference, that's a worse home record than what the lowly Reds have! Only two NL clubs - Atlanta and Arizona - have worse home records than what St. Louis currently sports. But there's a big-time caveat w/ the Redbirds' losing mark at Busch Stadium and that's they've actually outscored opponents here over the course of the season! I think they're actually in a great spot Monday drawing a Padres team in store for a letdown after a surprise sweep of the Giants. Conventional wisdom said that the Padres had waved the proverbial "white flag" on 2016 when they dealt Drew Pomeranz to Boston during the All-Star Break. But someone forgot to tell that to the existing players as they swept a Giants team that had previously beaten them nine straight times this year. I don't think anybody, myself included, saw that series result coming. But this is not a team known for ripping off extended win streaks. Looking over their entire season, there hasn't bee a single time that San Diego has won four straight games. There has been three instances of them winning three straight, but they've lost those next three games by a combined score of 11-3, getting shut out twice in the process. The sweep of the Giants was the team's first all season! Overall, the offensive numbers have been a bit better than expected this year (mainly thanks to Wil Myers), but overall this is the same sorry Padres team. Before yday, St. Louis pitching had (mostly) been getting the job done, holding opposing hitters to a .204 average and 3.0 runs over a seven-game stretch. Michael Wacha failed to get the job done yday, but I think Mike Leake will here today. Leake has a much better WHIP than ERA, especially here at home, indicating he's been more "unlucky" than "bad." Meanwhile, Padres starter Christian Friedrich has simply been the latter of late w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP his L3 starts, all losses. He's gone longer than six innings just twice all year. With a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA and has given up the fourth most runs, that's a problem. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
07-18-16 | Mets v. Cubs -158 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): I took the Cubs in the opener of their previous series, which ended up being a 6-0 win over the Rangers. They won the following day too, 3-1, but then dropped Sunday's finale to Cole Hamels by a score of 4-1. But despite that single loss, I will continue to maintain that this is - by far and away - the best team in baseball. They have the run differential (+144) to prove it. The fact that they won a series against the Rangers (+11 run differential) did not surprise me. This series, at least based on previous results, could prove to be a bit more difficult. After sweeping last year's regular season series (7 for 7) against the Mets, they have now lost eight in a row to the reigning Senior Circuit champs, having been swept in LY's NLCS and then again at Citi Field earlier this month. But I've always been a big proponent of the revenge angle. I'm taking the Cubs Monday, at home, in a big ESPN game. After four consecutive starts out on the road, Jon Lester will certainly be happy to be back at the Friendly Confines. The worst of those four starts came in Queens where he allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 innings. That start and his last one (at Pittsburgh) have seen Cubs opponents combine to score 26 runs. But Lester is having a great year here at Wrigley w/ a 2.32 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in eight starts (6-2 TSR). Note he had allowed just 24 ER total in his first 16 starts this season. He'll surely pitch better here than he did the last time against the Mets, which happened to be a career-worst performance, both in terms of runs allowed and innings lasted. The Cubs didn't generate a ton of offense against the Rangers, but the good news is they won't need much against the Mets' futile lineup. New York comes into this series ranked 28th in runs scored and 29th in team batting average. Last year, they were quite strong offensively on the road, but that's no longer the case as they are 28th in runs scored there as well. Stephen Matz will go Monday for the Metropolitans. His WHIP is a little higher than you'd typically like to see, especially of late. The team is just 2-5 his last seven starts and Matz's ERA/WHIP is 4.87/1.50 during that time. His rotation mate Jacob deGrom was quite kind to me Sunday, but that was against the sorry Phillies. This is the Cubs and like virtually all other situations, they excel vs. lefty starters w/ a 21-10 record, averaging 5.3 rpg. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-17-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Red Sox/Yankees (8:05 ET): Due to the rapidly declining Yankees, this rivalry has lost some of its luster in 2016, but that'll never stop ESPN from having this as the Sunday Night telecast. Last night's 5-2 victory made it six straight for the Red Sox and they clearly are a playoff contender thanks to the highest scoring offense in all of MLB. But going back to the 1st half, they've seen four straight Unders cash as they've been "held" to either four or five runs in every game. On the run suppression side of things, they've been outstanding in allowing just six runs total during that stretch. With a strong starting pitching matchup tonight (Price vs. Tanaka), I see it being a clean sweep for the Under in this series. | |||||||
07-17-16 | Dodgers -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -163 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): The old adage that "there's no place like home" certainly does NOT apply to the D'backs and Chase Field this season as the team has a terrible 16-33 home record. That's after winning yday mind you, 2-1 over the Dodgers. Atlanta (who is essentially a 'quadruple A' team at this point) is the only team w/ a worse home record than Arizona. The Dodgers came here and took Friday's series opener, 13-7, before losing close last night (in 12 innings). Embroiled in a tight battle for the NL Wild Card, Los Angeles simply can't afford to drop another game to the last place team in their division. They outhit Arizona last night (10-8) and were actually just one out away from a 1-0 victory (before giving up game-tying run w/ two outs in the bottom of the ninth). I like the much better team to respond here. Kenta Maeda started the year strong, then hit a brief rough patch and now is clearly back on track. The Dodgers righty has allowed 2 ER or less in seven of his past nine starts and his last one before the All-Star Break might have been his most masterful as he struck out 13 Padres en route to an easy 3-1 victory. He allowed just two hits in seven innings and didn't walk anybody either. This will be Maeda's third time facing Arizona this year and while he didn't get the win the first time, he also didn't allow a single run in 6 IP. The next time did see Maeda win as he gave up two runs in 5 1/3 IP. His TSR over his L10 outings is 7-3 and he has a 0.94 WHIP on the road for the season. The main reason why the Dodgers lost last night was that they went 1 for 15 w/ RISP. They have 28 hits in the first two games of the series, including a season-high for a game (18) in Friday's opener. I like the offense's chances here today against Robbie Ray, who over his last three starts has a 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP. His TSR, not surprisingly, is 0-3. Over the course of the season, his numbers are very similar at home, which is emblematic of how the team struggles to win here at Chase Field. Visiting teams are averaging nearly 6.0 rpg at this park and I should also mention that the Dodgers are 16-7 in day games thanks to averaging 5.1 rpg themselves. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
07-17-16 | LA Sparks v. Atlanta Dream +8 | Top | 74-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (3:00 ET): The Sparks are just killing the rest of the league right now as they've raced out to a record-breaking 20-1 (SU) start (tying the '98 Houston Comets) and are outscoring teams by nearly 12 points per game. But it was a closer than expected game on Friday as they had to go to overtime to overcome Connecticut, 98-92 (failed to cash as nine-point chalk). With history now within their grasp, obviously we're getting an inflated line here and it bears mentioning that this will be Los Angeles' third road game in five nights. Take the points. Atlanta returns home off B2B road losses, so they clearly won't be lacking for motivation here. Though now only .500 for the year (11-11 SU), the Dream remain in second place in the Eastern Conference. It was a really tough loss on Friday as they led Indiana 20-9 after the first quarter, but were unable to hold on. It also should be noted that the Dream played the Sparks pretty tough out in LA earlier in the year, losing by only nine as 11.5-pt pups. Using that number as a baseline, it would certainly appear that they are again being undervalued for the rematch (by about three points). The Sparks actually trailed the Sun heading into the fourth quarter on Friday. They trailed by as many as 16 in the third quarter. After a comeback win such as that, it's absolutely fair to question what the team will have left in the tank here, especially given the miles they're logging. I highly doubt we'll see Jantel Lavender match her scoring output from the last game as her 25 points were a career-high. One final note about that first meeting between these two teams is that the Dream still covered despite getting only nine points from leading scorer Angel McCoughtry. She'll play better here and I would not be surprised at all to see the Dream take the Sparks "down to the wire." 8* Atlanta | |||||||
07-17-16 | Mets -168 v. Phillies | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:35 ET): The Mets are looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss yday to the Phillies. Something I've been harping on all year is the Phillies' record in one-run games, which is now 20-9, the best such win percentage in the entire National League (They are also 5-0 in extra inning games). How fortunate! While Saturday saw them win by two runs, I still think that a discussion of the Phils' record in one-run games is pretty pertinent b/c it illustrates just how lucky they should feel about being within six games of .500. Consider that in games not decided by one run, Philly is just 23-40 and been outscored by 76 runs! I've said it all year; this is one of the worst teams in baseball and I expect the Mets to bounce back Sunday afternoon. The Mets have only managed to split eight games vs. the Phillies this year.Two of the losses were by one run, not surprisingly. But they did win the one start of Jacob deGrom back in April as he held the Phils to just one run and five hits in six innings of work. It's been another effective year for deGrom (2.61 ERA, 1.108 WHIP), although his team start record is only 8-7. But lately, the results have been all positive as the team has won each of his L3 starts w/ deGrom holding Atlanta, Chicago and Miami to just three runs total (all coming on solo HR's) in 20 IP (has 20 K's). I think the organization's decision to have him skip Tuesday's All-Star Game was a wise one. He'll be taking the mound with a full TEN days rest here, so the increased velocity we saw towards the end of the first half should still be present today. At the plate, last night's game marked just the second time in 14 games that the Mets didn't hit a home run. In the field, it was a throwing error that led to the go-ahead run for Philadelphia in the seventh inning. The fielding issue is easy to rectify and as for the power outage, they'll be facing a pitcher here (Zach Eflin) that has given up five HR's in six starts. Only one start has seen Eflin strike out more than three batters. I'm simply unwilling to buy into a Phillies team that has been outscored by 1.2 rpg here at home. deGrom is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Phillies w/ a 3.03 ERA. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
07-16-16 | San Antonio Stars +8 v. Phoenix Mercury | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (10:00 ET): As long as the oddsmakers continue to misprice Phoenix on a game by game basis, I'll look to take advantage. While it was a cover of the "back door" variety on Wednesday, it was a cover nonetheless w/ Washington as five-point dogs in a 78-74 final. That was the second straight game involving the Mercury where the pointspread came into play by the narrowest of margins as they themselves were off a 100-95 loss to Chicago, but as 5.5-pt underdogs. The bottom line here is that Phoenix is just 4-11 ATS when favored this season, making them - easily - the biggest money burners in that role in the entire league. San Antonio might be only 5-16 SU, but they are 11-10 ATS. Take the points. Now, the Stars will be looking to bounce back from a humbling defeat at the hands of Minnesota, who beat them badly on Tuesday. It was an 81-57 final, so even a 14-point spread at home wasn't enough. While that made it a third straight double digit loss, there are plenty of reasons to like San Antonio in this situation, namely that they are going to bounce back offensively. Not only is it simply natural to expect a team to bounce back after scoring just 57 pts, but Phoenix is also dead last in points allowed at 87.5 points per game. Yes, they are w/o their leading scorer Kayla McBride (for the year!), but I still believe the Stars find a way to score enough points to stay within the number here. This is also a revenge spot for San Antonio, who lost by 15 here in Phoenix earlier this year. Some might be tempted to lay the points, because the number tonight is smaller than it was in last month's meeting, but that's a classic oddsmakers' trap. The Mercury remain one of the higher profile teams in the league because most bettors know a couple of their players (Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner), but the fact is they are no longer at the elite level of Los Angeles or Minnesota. Despite having Griner on the roster, the Mercury are just eighth in the league in rebounding. After entering the third quarter w/ a 10-pt lead on Wednesday, Phoenix actually found itself down by one with just under 30 seconds remaining. This is not a team you want to lay points w/ right now. 10* San Antonio | |||||||
07-16-16 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
10* Under White Sox/Angels (9:05 ET): The team from the Southside of Chicago suffered the ignominious fate of being shutout in both its final game before the All-Star Break (lost 2-0 to Atlanta) and first game post-Break as they lost 7-0 last night here to the Angels. That was a truly disappointing result as the club had been a perfect 5-0 after suffering a shutout loss this season. I'm unwilling to call for a bounce back tonight, but I will call for another low-scoring affair as all five times these two teams have played this year, the game has stayed Under the total. Outside of Mike Trout, there's no one to fear in the Halos' lineup and I don't see them scoring seven times against here tonight. Take the Under. These teams played a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field back in April (when the White Sox were playing a lot better) and the teams ended up splitting. They exchanged shutout victories in the first two games and then neither of the final two saw more than five total runs scored. So, in five games total, they've yet to combined for more than seven runs and three times the losing side has been blanked. Speaking of being blanked, that's now happened to the White Sox four times in the last 10 games overall! They are just 26th in all of baseball when it comes to runs scored on the road. They managed just five hits in last night's loss. Meanwhile, outside of one big inning, the Angels offense didn't do much either on Friday. Factor out Interleague games and the Under is 40-31-4 for Los Angeles this season. James Shields was acquired from San Diego in early June and initially had been a disaster for Chicago. But he's shown signs of turning things around w/ a 2.21 ERA his L3 starts. The only loss there was the final game before the Break, where of course the Sox were shutout. Shields had been seeing "all Overs" during his AL tenure until that last start, so you'd naturally now expect things to start going "the other way." In fact, the Under has cashed more than the Over over the course of the season for Shields (9-8-1). The Under is also 10-6-1 when tonight's starter for the Angels, Matt Shoemaker, is on the mound. Shoemaker's last start at home saw him toss six shutout innings. That marked his fifth consecutive quality start here in Anaheim. 10* Under White Sox/Angels | |||||||
07-16-16 | Giants -170 v. Padres | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -170 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:40 ET): By dealing Drew Pomeranz to Boston during the All-Star Break, San Diego effectively "waved the white flag" on the 2016 season. Not that anyone thought they were going to make a run in the second half, but the trade made the front office's intentions pretty clear (Note: they did net themselves an outstanding prospect, Anderson Espinoza, who is being hailed by some as the "next Pedro Martinez."). Interestingly, somebody "forgot" to tell the Padres players that the season was over as the team pulled out a somewhat shocking 4-1 win over Madison Bumgarner and the Giants last night here at home (were +205 on the ML!). But there's no denying who the better team is here and I expect San Fran to reassert itself this evening. The current price range suits the Giants just fine as they are 8-1 this season as a ML road favorite of -150 to -175. Usually, that range is reserved for when Bumgarner is starting, but offseason acquisition Jeff Samardzija continues to be effective as well. The team is 11-7 when he takes the mound and his last time out saw him give up just two runs and five hits in a 6-2 win over Arizona. I was on Samardzija and the Giants that day and see no reason to fade here. Samardzija is 6-1 lifetime vs. San Diego, including 3-0 this season. In three career starts here at Petco Park, his ERA is 1.95 and he's held the Padres to a .177 batting average. Last night marked the first time all season (in 10 games) that the Giants lost to their NL West rivals this season. Traditionally, San Diego is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball on a year to year basis. So far this season, they rank a modest 17th in runs scored. But a 24th place ranking in team batting average, 27th place ranking in OBP and 22nd place ranking in slugging all suggest that the number of runs scored are likely to decline moving forward. As detailed above, facing Samardzija does them no favors tonight. Outside of Wil Myers, there's really no one to fear in the Padres batting order. As far as their own starter goes, Luis Perdomo has hardly been impressive w/ a 6.11 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in seven starts. The Giants are seventh in baseball in runs scored on the road, so expect them to bounce back from last night's surprising one run performance. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
07-16-16 | Marlins v. Cardinals -159 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:15 ET): What a frustrating year this has been for the Cardinals! It was another one-run loss last night, 7-6, to one of the teams they're competing w/ for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. That would be Miami, who is now two games up on the Redbirds in the standings despite having only a +2 run differential compared to St. Louis' +88 (3rd best in baseball!). Most frustrating of all for the Cards this year has been a now 19-27 home record (keep in mind they went 55-26 LY here at Busch Stadium!). They are also just 7-16 in one-run games. But I'll call for them to bounce back tonight behind Adam Wainwright, who has been a lot better over the course of the last month and a half. After allowing the fewest number of runs in all of MLB last season, regression was to be expected from the St. Louis pitching staff here in 2016. The drop has been pretty severe, but in the case of Wainwright, he's starting to bounce back. That includes six quality outings in his last seven starts overall, including B2B wins here at home. His last start prior to the Break saw him go seven innings and allow only one run and five hits against a good offensive club (Pittsburgh). He shut Milwaukee out for seven frames in his start prior to that. In eight career starts vs. Miami, Wainwright has an ERA of 2.33. His career ERA of 3.05 after the All-Star Break is also an encouraging sign. St. Louis had a 6-5 lead entering the eighth last night, but the combination of a leaky defense and struggling bullpen again conspired to cost them. I believe that Wainwright is certainly capable of negating those two factors here tonight. Also, lost in the St. Louis' struggles is the fact that they have a top four offense in baseball (461 runs scored) and have hit a total of 121 home runs, including four last night. Miami's Tom Koehler has really struggled of late (7.50 ERA, 2.083 WHIP L3 starts) and I can see him putting his team in a big early hole here. The team had lost three straight Koehler starts before he got to pitch against the woeful Reds on Sunday. But a 16-11 KW ratio over his L5 starts isn't going to scare anybody and a career 7.86 ERA vs. the Cardinals is a bad sign as well. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
07-15-16 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Indians/Twins (8:10 ET): The first and last place teams from the American League Central begin their second halves by facing off and while the Indians have every right to be favored here (even on the road), note it has been the Twins that have taken four of six head to head matchups in 2016. Minnesota also ended its first half by taking five of seven games against Texas, who is the only AL team with a better won-loss record than Cleveland. So be careful about fading the Twins in this spot. Both of these teams went Over in their respective final three games of the first half, but the starting pitching matchup Friday should dictate a much different result here. Take the Under. | |||||||
07-15-16 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
9* Under Brewers/Reds (7:10 ET): These are the two also-rans of the National League Central. Milwaukee headed into the All-Star Break 11 games below .500 w/ a -76 run differential. But that's nothing compared to Cincinnati, who is 25 games below the Mendoza Line w/ a -154 run differential, by far MLB's worst. While head to head matchups from the 1st half provide little support here (Over went 5-1-1), don't be surprised if the hitters come out of the Break a little slow for Friday's series opener. The Reds' bullpen will always be concern, but tonight's starter is not. Take the Under. The sample size is still small, but I like what I've seen from Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani so far in 2016. In six starts, he has not taken a loss and has a 2.23 ERA. The team has won DeSclafani starts at both Texas and Chicago (Cubs) as a money line underdog of +182 and +175 respectively. But here at Great American Ballpark is where he's done his best work with a sterling 0.64 ERA. The last time he pitched at home saw him toss eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball. Starting at that point, each of his last three starts have stayed Under the total. This will be the first time Milwaukee will have seen him. The Reds have given up - by far - the most runs in all of baseball and are one of only three teams to have seen the Over cash at least a 60% rate over the course of this season. I realize none of that sounds encouraging, but as the numbers (O/U lines) continue to rise, I suspect we'll see the ratio of Unders start to increase for this ballclub. It's not as if they're that prolific offensively. Collectively, they bat only .233 at home. The team batting average was just .229 over the last seven games overall. Thus, it should be a nice "night at the office" for Brew Crew starter Matt Garza, who definitely could use one. But you'll note all five of his starts so far have come against top teams from the NL - the Giants, Dodgers, Nationals (twice) and Cardinals. The Reds, quite clearly, are at the opposite end of that spectrum in the Senior Circuit. 9* Under Brewers/Reds | |||||||
07-15-16 | Rangers v. Cubs -191 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
5* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Though they have certainly "given some back" here in July (lost 8 of last 10 games), make no mistake about it, the Cubs were an absolute juggernaut in the first half of the season. They went into the Break w/ an incredible +139 run differential. That's 34 runs better than the #2 team (Washington) and 58 runs better than the top team from the American League (Cleveland). It is worlds better than the team w/ the AL's best record, Texas (+16), who I expect to regress in the second half. It is amazing to me that two teams w/ nearly identical records could have such disparate scoring differentials. In the lone Interleague series of the weekend, I'm siding with the contingent from the Senior Circuit. The Rangers hardly went into the Break playing their best baseball either. They won only three of their last 10 games and seven of those came against Minnesota, the worst team in the American League. Again, having a run differential of only +16 shows that they have overachieved greatly en route to a 54-36 record. The key to that record has been 19-7 mark in one-run games, which is easily the best win percentage in such games. Contrary to popular belief, that's luck not a skill. Texas is also a lot better at home (29-15) than on the road (25-21). After earning 55.0 units at the betting window since the start of last season, the Rangers are earmarked (by me) to start giving some back themselves. Friday's pitching matchup is heavily slanted towards the Cubs, at least in my opinion. Rangers starter Martin Perez has seen the team win eight of his last nine starts, but the last one is the one he lost and he did so in disastrous fashion by giving up 11 runs in four innings at Boston. While the Red Sox are the American League's top scoring team (490 runs scored), the Cubs have scored more than every NL team (460). Meanwhile, the Cubs turn to Kyle Hendricks, who has a 6-2 TSR at Wrigley w/ a 1.56 ERA and 0.808 WHIP. The team has won his last four starts. Hendricks benefits here from the fact the Rangers will be w/o the DH in their batting order. 5* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-13-16 | Washington Mystics +5 v. Phoenix Mercury | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
10* Washington (3:30 ET): The once-might Mercury find themselves in a pretty bad way right now as they've lost four of five including three straight. The oddsmakers had been slow to react, having them favored in every game until the last one, where they just barely escaped w/ the cover (by a half point). But they're back to the role of favorite here, a role that has seen them go a money-burning 4-10 against the spread this season. I'll be taking the points here. Washington is also on a losing streak, three consecutive games to be exact. The losing streak started when the current road trip (will end up being five games) did, but I think they're "due" to possibly break through here tonight. They only lost by two at Chicago and then after an admittedly poor showing against San Antonio (lost outright as 7-pt favorites), it was a bad spot having to face the 18-1 Sparks. But now they've been off for two days and find themselves in a much better situation. I highly doubt they'll allow another opponent to shoot 55% from the floor again (like LA did). The Mercury are also the worst defensive team in the league right now, giving up 88.1 points per game. This is a double revenge spot for the Mystics, who have been beaten twice so far this year by the Mercury, by 16 and 12 points. But Phoenix isn't playing well any more. Remember their last home game saw them lose outright by 18 points and they were a six-point favorite there. Oddsmakers have simply been slow to react to the decline of this team and I simply wouldn't want to be laying points with them right now. 10* Washington | |||||||
07-13-16 | LA Sparks v. Chicago Sky +5.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
8* Chicago (12:30 ET): So far, the Sparks have lost only one time, that being by three points at at home to Minnesota back on June 21st. They immediately avenged that defeat (as in three days later) w/ an 18-pt road win over the Lynx and are now on a seven-game win streak, further widening the gap in the Western Conference between them and Minnesota. But the last six games have all come in LA. I expect them to stumble in their first road game in nearly three weeks. Take the points. Chicago had just two wins in its previous nine games, but did beat Phoenix 100-95 on Sunday. Unfortunately, they just missed out on the cover as 5.5-pt favorites. On the bright side, it was the Sky's highest scoring game all year, not a surprise against the defensively challenged Mercury. Though only 2-7 ATS its last nine games, it should be pointed out that Chicago has been favored six times during that same stretch. They've gone 2-1 ATS as dogs. They are also 5-2 ATS coming off a SU win this season. These teams have already played twice and obviously the Sparks won both times, by exactly the same margin of 13 points, in fact. But I have reason to believe that this third installment will be a lot closer as each of Chicago's last four games have been decided by four points or less. In fact, four of their last five losses have come by a grand total of 13 points. Ellena Delle Donne is second in the league in scoring at 20.9 PPG. Incredibly, this will be only the fourth road game for the Sparks since the start of June! 8* Chicago | |||||||
07-13-16 | Atlanta Dream v. New York Liberty UNDER 157.5 | Top | 62-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show |
8* Under Dream/Liberty (11:00 AM ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now, but New York has a rather comfortable 3.5 gm lead on Atlanta. The teams have split a pair of games so far in the 2016 season, but it's important to note that both went into overtime, one of them double overtime. That first meeting (here in NY) was an 85-79 final in favor of the Dream, though it should be noted they held the Liberty to just two points in OT. The rematch in Atlanta saw New York come out on top 90-79 and that game saw a total of 29 pts scored in the two extra periods. Assuming tonight's game doesn't go beyond on regulation, the total looks too high. Take the Under. Three of the Liberty's last four games have stayed Under the total, including the last as they held San Antonio to just 65 points on 36.8% shooting. The top rebounding team in the league, New York also gives up the third fewest points per game. Even though they are only 6-4 SU at home, they do give up fewer PPG than on the road (where they're 9-2 SU) and as a result the Under is 7-3 here. They held the Dream to 33.3% shooting in the last meeting. Atlanta is also coming off an Under, a game that they won 67-63 over Connecticut. That was easily their lowest scoring game of the year as not only did they match a season-low for points allowed, but it was also a season-low for points scored! While today's game likely ends up with more total pts scored, we certainly have plenty of "wiggle room." The Under is 6-3 in all Dream road games so far. 8* Under Dream/Liberty | |||||||
07-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Diamondbacks/Giants (8:05 ET): The home team is a heavy favorite in the final game before the All-Star Break and for good reason as they'll be sending Madison Bumgarner to the bump. From a value perspective, San Francisco is basically unplayable here, but I think that the Under presents a great opportunity. Obviously, it would be a big lift if the Giants didn't have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (always a nice luxury when playing the Under). Yesterday's game was an Under (4-2 Giants' win) as have 20 of the last 32 head to head meetings. Bumgarner is coming off an excellent showing where he tossed six scoreless innings here at home against Colorado. Incredibly, the Giants would go on to lose that game 7-3. It was the 13th time in 18 starts that Bumgarner allowed 2 ER or less. This will be his first time facing Arizona since April 20th. That time he allowed only two runs and five hits across seven innings. His ERA/WHIP at home is 1.99/0.931. Arizona has been one of the bigger disappointments of the first half. They've lost 50 games and likely will start unloading players at the trade deadline. They have a very atypical home-road split, but you have to figure they will struggle here offensively. They've scored just two runs in each of the first two games of this series and the Giants are allowing just 3.3 rpg their last seven . Archie Bradley will toe the rubber for them tonight. He'd thrown three straight quality starts before a Fourth of July outing vs. San Diego. While the Over is 8-2 in all Bradley starts so far, this one will be a much different story considering the opposing pitcher. 10* Under Diamondbacks/Giants | |||||||
07-10-16 | Twins v. Rangers -160 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
8* Texas (3:05 ET): I have to say that I was quite surprised to see the Rangers lose to the Twins - again - yday. Yes, I am on the record as saying that the A.L. West leaders will likely regress in the second half. But Minnesota is an opponent that they should - theoretically - handle w/ ease. Somehow though, it is the Twins that are 4-2 head to head in the season series (+22 run differential!). Last night saw the road team emerge with an 8-6 victory thanks to a career day at the plate from Eddie Rosario. The issue for Texas is that they're not getting quality starts from the rotation, but I expect A.J. Griffin to get the job done today. The Rangers are 6-1 in Griffin's last seven starts w/ the right-hander posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. His last time out, they cashed big (+185 on the money line!) at Boston. Granted, Griffin made it only four innings, but he did his job. What's interesting is that this will be just the second time the team is favored this season w/ Griffin on the hill. Here at home though is where Griffin generally does his best work. In three starts in Arlington, he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.873 WHIP. Overall, the team is 29-14 at home this year. Another key is that they are 21-13 off a loss. Minnesota's Tom Milone has been pretty terrible. He has a 5.18 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in seven starts and is winless on the road w/ both the ERA and WHIP jumping. He is off perhaps his best showing all year, so I'd expect him to regress. That last start, which came Tuesday, was also at home against a pretty poor Oakland club. I just can't see the Twins beating the Rangers again. 8* Texas | |||||||
07-10-16 | Reds v. Marlins -153 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:10 ET): Hopefully, you don't need me to point out that Cincinnati is a very bad baseball team. They now have a run differential of -150, which is 41 runs WORSE than the second worst team. To put the Reds current run diff in its proper perspective, consider that the worst in baseball last year was Atlanta's -187 and that was after 162 games. Cincy is being outscored by 1.7 rpg this year and that number jumps over 2.0 when they're on the road where their record is now 14-31 after yday's 4-2 loss. Today's starter Cody Reed certainly gives little reason to believe. This is a good price to go against the worst team in baseball. Miami has managed to keep itself "above water" in the first half. They will go into the Break above .500 and depending on what transpires today could even be tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They've held the Reds to just three runs in two games in this series. Today's starter Tom Koehler has had somewhat of an "up and down" season as he's lost each of his last three starts after winning his previous three. But in his last 10 starts, he's allowed more than 3 ER only twice. I have to imagine that trend continues here given the lack of offense we've seen from the Reds in the first two games. Something else that must always factored in when handicapping the Reds is just how horrible their bullpen is. This group has an unsightly 5.57 ERA and 1.590 WHIP. They have more blown saves than actual saves and give up an average of 2.5 runs per game! While the team did pick up a couple of wins against the Cubs earlier this week, I can't see them summoning up the desire to pick up a win on the road in the final game before the All-Star Break. Meanwhile, Miami is 7-2 as a home favorite in the -150 to -175 range on the money line this year. 8* Miami | |||||||
07-09-16 | Mark Hunt v. Brock Lesnar +151 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 151 | 75 h 11 m | Show |
9* Brock Lesnar (11:55 ET): This is the much hyped return of former UFC Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar to the Octagon following a 4.5 year sabbatical as he's gone back to where he first plied his trade, the WWE. While many will be quick to dismiss Lesnar's comeback attempt and write him off simply as a "pro wrestler," those were the same mistakes made in evaluating him during his first go around with UFC. Many have (rightfully) questioned him taking on Mark Hunt, who stylistically presents quite the challenge, in his first fight back. But when you look at the fighters that have actually beaten Lesnar, Hunt is simply not on their level. At this price, Lesnar is a very attractive option. One thing that we can probably bank on here is the fight not going the distance. But the Under 1.5 rounds simply is not attractive option to me, even though four of Lesnar's eight career fights didn't even make it out of the first round. The key here for him, however, will be to take Hunt down. If he can do that, then the fight is his for the taking. Remember that Lesnar is a former NCAA wrestling champion. Now, he is a massive man that can simply bulldoze Hunt down to the mat and win that way. Though it was almost eight years ago, I can recall MMA purists scoffing at the notion of Lesnar being favored to beat Randy Couture. Those seem to be the same folks rolling their eyes at the odds here. While you may scoff at Lesnar's 5-3 career mark, Hunt's 12-10-1 record is nothing to write home about either. Hunt is coming off a couple of KO victories over 'Bigfoot' Silva and Frank Mir (Lesnar's most famous opponent), which have played a significant role in the odds here. But, how quick we forget that Hunt was just 1-3-1 his five previous fights and was stopped in every defeat. There was also a time in his career where Hunt lost SIX straight fights! Lesnar is going to be highly motivated to silence the critics in his return and prove that it was diverticulitis, not lack of skill, that derailed his first UFC go-around. 9* Brock Lesnar | |||||||
07-09-16 | Twins v. Rangers -110 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
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07-09-16 | Dallas Wings v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 167 | Top | 56-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Wings/Lynx (8:05 ET): This is actually my first Over play this season in WNBA. There has been a dramatic increase in scoring this year, but I waited for a "tipping point" (when O/U lines reached near-record highs to strike back with some Unders. Now that we've seen those Unders start to cash, it's time to reasses. Dallas is 2nd in the league in scoring (85.7 PPG) and 2nd to last in points allowed (87.3 per game). This is a really tough spot for the Wings here as they are coming off an overtime game. Had yday's game not gone to OT, it would have been a fourth consecutive Under. But before that, they'd gone Over nine straight times. Take the Over. Minnesota has gone Over in four straight games and just suffered a stunner, giving up 93 points in an outright loss (as 11.5-pt favorites) to Connecticut. That too was an overtime game. Maya Moore scored 40 points, all but two of those coming after halftime! But it wasn't enough as the the Lynx lost for a fourth time in six games after that 13-0 start. Offense has not been a problem though as the team is 4th in the league in scoring. They should shred a Dallas defense that has given up a ton of points this year. Making this spot even tougher for the Wings is the fact they are likely to be w/o Glory Johnson, who injured her foot last night. This is the lowest total for a Wings game in some time, so there's value. The last time these teams met, it may have only been an 80-63 final (in favor of Minnesota), but the Wings shot only 36% from the floor. I expect that percentage to go up tonight. That was their lowest scoring game all year. 10* Over Wings/Lynx | |||||||
07-09-16 | Cubs -156 v. Pirates | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -156 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): It was going to be damn near impossible for the Cubs to maintain the torrid pace they set earlier this season, but they have have definitely "given some back" in recent days. They've actually now lost four straight and 8 of their last 10 games. But I always like to keep things in their proper perspective and the bottom line is that this team still has a +144 run differential (45 runs better than #2 team). After losing 8-4 last night here in Pittsburgh, I like the NL Central leaders to bounce back. The Cubs were in a bit of a bad spot last night as they had to play a make up game vs. Atlanta Thursday. Yes, I realize the Pirates were in St. Louis Thursday afternoon, but I'll still take that over a third opponent in three days (situation Cubs were facing). I am shocked - repeat shocked - that the Cubs had lost three in a row combined to the Reds & Braves (two worst teams in baseball). In a way, I wasn't as shocked yday as they were 8-1 head to head vs. Pittsburgh this season and probably "due" to drop one. But w/ Jon Lester on the bump tonight, I like their chances to reclaim their dominance over the Bucs. Lester has already faced this opponent three times in 2016. He's allowed just 4 ER in 18 1/3 IP and that includes shutting them out (for 5 2/3 IP) here at PNC Park. Now Lester is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing where he allowed eight runs in 1 1/3 IP in New York Sunday. Considering that's the same number of earned runs he'd allowed - combined - in his previous seven outings, I like his chances of bouncing back here. He should be well-rested after such a short outing as well. Pittsburgh will go w/ Chad Kuhl opposite Lester. Kuhl has won both of his starts so far - as an underdog - thereby turning a nice profit. But his ERA (4.09) and WHIP (1.364) aren't that impressive. Yes, the Pirates have won eight of nine while the Cubs have lost 16 of 25. But I was correct in bucking Pittsburgh Thursday and it should be pointed out they had to come from behind (scored five runs in 7th/8th innings) yday. 8* Chi Cubs |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |