Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-15-17 | Pistons -2 v. Lakers | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (9:35 ET): Call me crazy, but I feel that Pistons HC Stan Van Gundy could be in some real trouble if his team were to lose tonight. Fortunately for SVG, the opponent here is the lowly Lakers. Detroit, expected to be a bit of a breakout team in the East this year, is instead languishing at six games below .500 and three games back of the eighth place team. Of course, that would be an enviable position as far as the Lakers are concerned. After a surprisingly all right start to the season, they're exactly where we expected them to be and that's at the bottom of the standings. I have only two teams in the entire league rated worse in my own power rankings and those are Philadelphia and Brooklyn. Lay the short number here. Sometime right before X-Mas, it all started going very badly for the Pistons. They've lost 11 of 15 overall. One of those four wins came against Cleveland, the day after X-Mas (Cavs had just beaten Golden State) and they didn't have to face LeBron James. Their only two wins since we flipped the calendar to 2017 both came by exactly one point. So you might feel as if this is not a prime candidate to be laying points with right now, but fortunately the number is short and the opponent is the Lakers. Los Angeles also has just four wins in its L15 games and they've lost three straight, all in blowout fashion. Saturday afternoon, it was 113-97 to the Clippers. They are just 3-6 SU this year when playing in the second game of a back to back. Detroit is wrapping up a five-game West Coast swing here, but at least has the edge in rest. Friday went very poorly for them in Utah (lost 110-77), but that result SHOULD have the players eager to atone. It also helps that they'll be facing the worst defensive team in the league on a per possession basis. Ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, LA is giving up 110.3 points per game for the year. The Pistons defensive numbers have slipped of late, but they are still "miles ahead" of the Lakers. After they shot below 40% from the floor on Friday, I'll call for Detroit to have one of its stronger offensive efforts in some time tonight. They are 30-14 ATS L44 games w/ a total of 210 or higher. 8* Detroit | |||||||
01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 13 m | Show |
Note: This play is unaffected by the time change for Sunday. 8* Kansas City (8:20 ET): Three is considered a "key number" in betting for a reason. It's the standard issue for home field advantage in the NFL. Thus, when you have two seemingly evenly ranked teams, it seems reasonable to expect that home team would in fact be favored by a field goal. But, despite the fact that the Chiefs had last week off and HC Andy Reid is an amazing 19-2 SU off a bye in his career (3-0 in playoffs), that is not the case here. That seems strange to me. Pittsburgh did beat Miami 30-12 last week, but total yardage (367-305) and especially first downs (19-18) were not that lopsided. Rather, the result of that game hinged on the Dolphins turning the ball over three times and having to start Matt Moore at QB. This season marked the 1st time EVER that the Steelers came into the playoffs w/ QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown all healthy. But in a cruel bit of irony, Big Ben was left in the game too long last week and suffered a foot injury late in taking a sack. A less than 100% Roethlisberger could be the difference here as I see value on the Chiefs. I'm not going to say that Pittsburgh's 43-14 win over Kansas City back in Week 4 has little to no relevancy, but just remember that last week the Black and Gold were the ones favored against a foe that beat them in the regular season. We saw how that worked out. The Week 4 loss was - clearly - the Chiefs worst game of this season. Their other three losses all came by seven points or less (two by identical 19-17 scores). Falling behind 22-0 after one quarter is what doomed KC is that reg season loss in Pittsburgh, which was a Sunday night game. Similarly, the Steelers jumped all over Miami early last week. I would not look for a similar early explosion from them here, not w/ Roethlisberger less than 100 percent. Also, the Kansas City defense (despite being w/o Derrick Johnson) is in much better shape now than it was in Week 4. That's because they have Justin Houston in the lineup. Honestly, I was shocked that Pittsburgh opened up as the favorite here, given the situation favoring Kansas City off the bye. As they are in almost every playoff game, turnovers will be the key here. The Chiefs have the best TO margin in the league over the last two seasons and the most points added from defense/special teams this season. That's not always sustainable, but last week saw Roethlisberger make a number of bad decisions throwing the football. He will not be able to get away w/ those mistakes against this defense, which is permitting only 15.7 PPG at home. While they arrive at Arrowhead Stadium riding an impressive sounding seven-game win streak, the best team the Steelers have beaten during that time is the Giants. They actually trailed by double digits in each of their final three regular season games. Chiefs' fans, who have seen just one playoff win since '93 (LY vs. Brian Hoyer-led Texans), have been dying for this opportunity for a long time and the team will respond in kind. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
10* Under Packers/Cowboys (4:40 ET): Green Bay blew out the Giants on Wild Card Weekend, winning 38-13. They were my 10* Game of the Week selection, so certainly I was happy. But while the lazy talking heads were quick to cite an ill-timed boat trip by the Giants' receiving corps as the cause of the loss, more reasonable minds were all over the fact that NY losing top CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie had far more to do the end result. After a shaky start to the game, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers caught fire once DRC left the game. He ended up throwing for 362 yards and four touchdowns, despite missing top WR Jordy Nelson for most of the game. Nelson has since been ruled OUT for this week's game in Dallas, which is a big deal, and thus look for GB's run of five straight 30+ point efforts (and Overs) to come to an end here. I'm on the Under. Led by two superstar rookies (QB Dak Prescott & RB Ezekiel Elliot), Dallas went 13-3 SU in the regular season, earning the top spot in the NFC. One of those three losses was in the meaningless reg season finale at Philly while the other two came against the Giants. One of the 13 wins was against these Packers, back in Week 6, as the offense rode Elliott for 157 yards en route to a 30-16 win and cover at Lambeau Field. The line for that matchup was Dallas +5 and clearly the oddsmakers' shift for the rematch is warranted. But I'm not sure the increase in the O/U line is warranted as the reg season meeting just did stay Under (total was 47.5). Something I mentioned in LW's successful Under play on Miami-Pittsburgh is that rematches tend to be lower-scoring than the original. That played out in three of the four games last weekend. So getting a higher O/U line to work with for the rematch here seems to be a steal. After all, Cowboys games "only" averaged 45.4 total PPG this year. In addition to benefiting from the loss of the Giants' top cornerback, Rodgers was able to get away w/ yet another of his "patented" Hail Mary completions at the end of the first half. I used quotes around the word patented because even w/ him completing three over the last two seasons, such an event should not be expected again here. Again, I have to go back to how slow the Packers started LW's game as their first five drives only accounted for 51 yards total. Four of them went for four plays or less. Not having Nelson is going to be a big deal for Rodgers. At the same time, don't be surprised if it takes awhile for Dallas' offense to get going as well. They have rookies starting at the two key positions after all. I would expect GB to do a better job at containing Elliott this second time around. In fact, neither side allows 100 yds rushing per game. Interestingly, of the seven times Dallas has faced Rodgers, six have been in Lambeau Field (L3 all stayed Under). With the home field advantage, I expect this game to be lower scoring than expected. 10* Under Packers/Cowboys | |||||||
01-15-17 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | Top | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): What has happened to Northern Iowa this year? Ben Jacobson's proud program is in a massive tailspin right now as they've lost seven in a row, the last five of which have come in Missouri Valley play (the others were to Iowa and North Carolina). Results at the betting window have been even worse as not only have the Panthers failed to cover the spread in all seven of those SU losses, they're also 3-12 ATS for the year! But help comes today in the form of MVC rival Drake, who UNI always seems to beat up on. Drake is 0-8 SU on the road this year and I think we're getting this matchup at a great price due to Drake having pulled a couple of surprising upsets (at home) in the last week. Lay the points. Being favored has not treated Northern Iowa well this year as they're just 1-6 ATS in the role, losing outright five times. The most recent instance came Wednesday at Bradley as they fell 72-61 as two-point chalk. The Panthers shot the ball horrifically (33.9% for the game) while at the same time allowing the Braves to connect on 55.1% of their FG attempts. Such a wide shooting disparity is pretty rare and I'd be surprised if we saw anything like that againt for UNI the rest of the season. Luckily for them, this game is at home where they are allowing only 61.2 points per game for the season. Their own scoring average rises (to 69.7 PPG) here in Cedar Falls. Facing a team that's allowed an average of 83.4 PPG in conference play should remedy some of the offensive woes we've seen recently. As mentioned earlier, Drake has pulled a couple of upsets over the past week. First, they beat Evansville 88-76 as 3.5-pt dogs. Then it was an 87-70 win over Indiana State (were +1) on Wednesday. But I think that most would still conclude that the Bulldogs are still one of the worst teams in the MVC. They have never had much success vs. Northern Iowa, going just 13-27 ATS L40 meetings, and the last two seasons have produced four double digit losses. They really benefited from Indiana State shooting only 32.4% on Wednesday. Even w/o Jeremy Morgan, I expect Northern Iowa to (finally!) get back on track in this one. 10* Northern Iowa | |||||||
01-15-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (3:05 ET): Atlanta saw its seven-game win streak come to an end Friday as they lost at home to Boston, 103-101 as 3.5-pt favorites. The Celtics were my *10* Game of the Week in that spot. Seven game win streaks are certainly "hard to come by," but if you were w/ me on Friday's play, then you're already aware of the "holes" I was able to poke in the Hawks' recent ended streak. Their four-game road trip was about as easy as it gets w/ visits to Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn. While still fourth in the East, Atlanta's point differential and efficiency rating actually both place sixth. One of the teams ahead of them is this afternoon's opponent, Milwaukee. The better team is getting points in this instance. The Bucks showed me something in not experiencing a letdown against Miami Friday night. After all, it would have only been natural seeing as they were off a win at San Antonio on Tuesday. Led by sure-fire All Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee has really morphed into a good team and they are 8-5 ATS this year when taking on opponents that have a winning record. They jumped on Miami right away Friday night, scoring 42 points in the first quarter. They led by 17 going into the fourth quarter. What's notable from the win is Antetokounmpo didn't lead the team in points, rebounds or assists (a real rarity!). If this team can win when their star isn't at his best (he's been sick recently), that's a bad sign for the rest of the Conference. The Bucks are 0-2 SU/ATS this year vs. the Hawks, but in the last meeting they blew a 20-point halftime lead at home. Both games were decided by three points or less. I'm saying that the third time will be the charm here for Milwaukee as they are better than Atlanta in both per game point differential (+2.2 vs. +0.0) and net efficiency rating (+2.9 vs. +0.4). To me, even w/ Atlanta's home court edge, the line here should be a pick 'em. The fact that we are getting any points at all w/ what I consider to be the better team is an absolute steal. The Bucks are a top eight team in offensive efficiency and should take advantage of a Hawks team giving up 104.9 PPG at home. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
01-15-17 | Massachusetts v. Rhode Island -11 | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): The two teams involved here brought me very different results in their respective last games. UMass treated me to a nice outright win (as 7-pt home dogs) hosting Dayton. But Rhode Island fell victim to a very hot-shooting LaSalle team and lost outright (as 12-pt home favorites). That was the Rams's second straight outright loss as they'd previously lost at Dayton (as a one-point favorite). Thus, there should be a real "sense of urgency" w/ the Rhodies this afternoon. Before Thursday, they had not dropped a home game and I'll call for them to bounce back w/ a big double digit win here. Lay the points. UMass has not fared particularly well in "true" road games thus far. They've won only two out of six and those wins were against Holy Cross and Georgia Southern. Prior to upsetting Dayton, the Minutemen were 0-3 in Atlantic 10 play, including losses at George Mason and VCU. They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure. That upset of Dayton was largely made possible by the Flyers shooting a horrid 31.7% from the floor. It certainly helped drawing them off their big win over Rhode Island. Holding a 34-27 halftime lead proved to be the difference. Also, Dayton has not won in Amherst since 2004. So while kudos should be given to the Minutemen for what they were able to pull off Wednesday (I did have them remember!), the fact is this really isn't that great of a team and they're probably in store for a letdown. Off their previous upset win (at Ga Southern), they would go on to lose the home game to St. Bonaventure their next time out. This is a really important game for Rhode Island, who cannot afford to lose a third straight conference game. Again, they were 8-0 SU at home before losing to LaSalle on Thursday. The Explorers couldn't miss as they shot a ridiculous 57.8% for the game compared to only 39.4% for the Rams. The 12-point loss was URI's largest of the season. I believe this team is better than it's 10-6 SU overall record as four of the losses have been by five points or less and another was to Duke. They did beat a very good Cincinnati team here at home earlier in the season. I can't believe that at home Rhode Island was -22 in FT attempts compared to LaSalle. UMass, who is below 30% for the year from three-point range, won't shoot the ball nearly as well. Three-point shooting is typically a difference maker for the Rams at home as they make 37.3% while allowing opponents to shoot 27.1%. They are +14.8 PPG at the Ryan Center. 8* Rhode Island | |||||||
01-15-17 | Flyers +1.5 v. Capitals | 0-5 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
8* Puck Line Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Flyers +1.5. I feel like I've already written pretty extensively about the Metro. If you're not "up to speed," this is clearly the most competitive division in the league. Four of my top six ranked teams in the sport call the Metro home, but it's easy to forget that at one point this was a five-horse race. However, Philadelphia has fallen off the pace (7 pts back) due to losing 10 of their past 13. That makes it easy to forget that prior to this losing streak, they'd won 10 in a row! Today, they are being given no chance against one of those top four teams in the division, Washington, who enters on its own eight-game win streak. However, I see the Flyers coming in and doing no worse than a one-goal loss here. Take the PL. At no point this season has the Capitals' stock been higher than it is right now. Three of the last five wins have been shutouts and the last one was the most impressive as they destroyed Chicago 6-0 here in D.C. But that kind of result now has them priced way too high, in my opinon, making the +1.5 far more affordable than it ought to be. For the record, three times in during the Caps current eight game run, they've prevailed by just one goal. Note that nearly half of Washington's games this year (20 out of 42) have been decided by the one goal margin. For Philadelphia, the percentage of games decided by one goal compared to total games played is even higher. They've seen 25 of 43 games decided by the one goal margin. While in the second game of a back to back (lost 6-3 at Boston yday), the Flyers should hopefully far better here w/ Steve Mason in goal as opposed to the struggling Michael Neuvirth. They have a winning record in the second game of B2B's this year (6-4) and w/ Mason did beat the Capitals last month, by one goal, in a shootout. 8* Puck Line Philadelphia (+1.5) | |||||||
01-14-17 | Jets v. Kings -174 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
7* Los Angeles (10:05 ET): The margin for error continues to grow slimmer for the Kings in the Western Conference. Being w/o goaltender Jonathan Quick for all but the first game this season, the perennial power currently finds itself fifth in the Pacific. Were the playoffs to start today (and they most certainly do not!), LA would be the 8th and final entrant. But four teams are withing three points of them and their coveted spot entering play Saturday. One of them is Winnipeg, who will be the team paying a visit to Staples Center tonight. The Kings certainly appear to be catching the Jets at the right time as not only did their visitors lose last night (4-3 at lowly Arizona), but they also fell 7-4 at home to Montreal on Wednesday. This will be the end of a busy Saturday at Staples Center. The Lakers and Clippers will take the court against each other in the afternoon. The Kings certainly gave the home folk something worth cheering for on Thursday when they whipped the Blues, winning 5-1. That was a much needed bounce back after suffering two bad losses here to Minnesota and Dallas. Offense has not been an issue for LA as they've scored a total of 13 goals in the last three games. But prior to beating St. Louis, they'd also allowed 13 the previous three. But as long as they continue to allow a league-low 23.6 shots per game on home ice, you have to think the goaltending will be fine. For most of time, Peter Budaj has proven to be an adequate fill-in for Quick. Winnipeg has lost 15 of 24 road games this season and consistently gives up a lot of shots per game. Goaltending has been a real sore spot this season.While the Kings are sixth in goals allowed, the Jets are 26th. That large discrepancy can be attributed to the disparate save percentages of the two clubs. Winnipeg is one of just five teams at .900 or lower and the L2 games have seen Connor Hellebuyck get yanked. Last night, he gave up four goals in the first period. The only other option here is Michael Hutchinson and his save percentage in his L4 starts is .867. That's slightly lower than Hellebuyck. 7* Los Angeles | |||||||
01-14-17 | Santa Clara v. Pepperdine +4 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET): November and December were a "tale of two months" for Pepperdine. They didn't leave campus once in November and went a more than respectable 4-3 SU. December was a different story. After opening w/ a home date against Belmont (top team in the OVC), the Waves rode out 2016 with six consecutive road games. They lost all of them, only covering as 10-point dogs at Montana. They did beat Loyola Marymount in the first game of '17, but have since lost to San Diego and Pacific. And the news hasn't gotten any better in the last 24 hours as news broke they could continue to be short-handed w/ Knox Hellums and Ryan Keenan possibly out (undisclosed). But this will be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, traditionally a terrible spot. Take the points. Pepperdine still has three double digits scorers, most notably LaMond Murray Jr, who is averaging 19.4 points per game. You can trace the team's downfall to the loss of PG Amadi Udenyi as they've won only once w/o him. But grad transfer Chris Reyes has managed to step up (15.2 PPG) and so has Jeremy Major, a career 1,000+ point scorer. The team's 38.1% shooting from three-point range currently stands as the best for an Waves team since '03. Unfortunately, opponents have not been missing many attempts from behind the arc, currently at 42%, one of the highest percentages allowed in the entire country. You have to figure that number will start to come down, if not only because it has to. While Pepperdine lost a close one at Pacific on Thursday, Santa Clara won by an even slimmer margin at San Diego. It was 59-57 for the Broncos, who just missed out on covering as 2.5-pt faves. A made layup w/ just over one minute remaining ended up as the GW basket. Over the final eight minutes, the margin was never greater than three for either side. This just won't be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, it's also their third straight overall. They shot poorly last Saturday at Loyola Marymount (the only WCC team Pepperdine has beaten!) as in 36.8% overall and lost. Scoring only 59 points Thursday does not lead me to conclude that this is a team that should be laying points on the conference road. 10* Pepperdine | |||||||
01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:40 ET): At least for one week, we got to see the "Seattle of old." That was because they were fortunate enough to draw a weak Detroit team in the Wild Card Round, at home no less. Paced by Thomas Rawls' 161 yards rushing, the Seahawks essentially dominated the Lions "from bell to bell" in a 26-6 win and cover (I had them -8) where the only points allowed came on two long field goals. But, it goes w/o saying that this week brings a far stiffer challenge in the form of a trip to the Georgia Dome to play the rested and high-scoring Falcons. This is actually a rematch of a 2012 Divisional Round game, which was won by Atlanta 30-28, but in reality signified the genesis of a five-year Seattle run that has seen them make the playoffs every year and the Super Bowl twice (won one). Amazingly, it also represents the ONLY playoff win in the entire career of Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Seattle covered here in the Dome five years ago but this year it's Ryan and Atlanta's turn. Lay the points. Even in defeat, Seattle was probably the better team five years ago. This year though, that is NOT the case. This is probably the best Falcons team in the Ryan era and the QB has certainly presented a valid case for MVP. Atlanta's offense was the best in the league by a wide margin this year, averaging 33.8 points and 415.8 yards per game. They also average 6.7 yards per play, which is tops in the league. In terms of yards per play differential (what the offense averages vs. defense allows), these teams actually rank 1-2 in the league. But the gap between #1 (Atlanta) and #2 (Seattle) is larger than the gap between #2 and #12! The absence of Safety Earl Thomas looms large here as even w/ him in the lineup, the Seahawks gave up 335 yards passing and three touchdowns to Ryan back in Week 6. Seattle won that game 26-24, but it was at home and not w/o controversy as it sure looked like Thomas and Richard Sherman got away w/ pass interference on Falcons' WR Julio Jones on the final play. I expect Ryan to have a ton of success throwing the ball Saturday night. This offense had a league best 69 plays of 20+ yards during the regular season. Remember, an anemic Detroit passing attack simply lacked the personnel to attack the wounded Seahawks secondary, which has performed much worse w/ Thomas out of the lineup. This game taking place in the Georgia Dome is a big deal as Seattle is just 3-4-1 on the road this year and their last three road games have all been shaky. They barely won at San Francisco late in the year. Their worst game of this season came at Green Bay and the offense managed only five points in a loss at Tampa Bay. Though the Atlanta defense can sometimes be susceptible to the run, do not look for Rawls to repeat LW's performance, particularly if Seattle falls behind. Furthermore, the Seahawks' offensive line is in shambles and often fails to properly protect Russell Wilson, who has not been at 100 percent this year. What the Falcons' D is good at it is rushing the passer as Vic Beasley leads the league in sacks. On both sides of the ball, the Falcons are rested and healthy. This is their game to shine. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
01-14-17 | Richmond v. St. Joe's -1.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
10* St. Joe's (12:30 ET): St. Joe's was the top ATS team in the country last year, at least among those that regularly play lined games. They finished 24-11 ATS (28-8 SU). Somewhat predictably, they've regressed in 2016-17, starting just 5-9 vs. the number after losing here at home to George Mason (75-67 as four-point chalk) back on Tuesday. Richmond is the next team to invade Hagan Arena and I do not anticipate this venture being a successful one for the Spiders. Sure, they come in riding a four-game win streak, including upsets of Dayton and George Washington on the road. But home games w/ Fordham and St. Bonaventure were certainly advantageous. The road team won both meetings last season, so it's naturally time for the host to return the favor. St. Joe's has suffered a major blow w/ the loss of leading scorer Shavar Newkirk (20.5 PPG) for the rest of the season. But three players scored 16+ in the surprise loss to George Mason on Tuesday. I believe Newkirk's lost production can be made up for, specifically by James Demery and Lamarr Kimble. Also, here at home, the Hawks are typically potent offensively. So far, they are averaging 76.2 PPG here in Philly. While it's been a so-so start in the A-10 (just 2-2 SU), they did beat GW here. In the loss to George Mason, they led at halftime and into the second half. It was rare in that they allowed the opponent to shoot 50% while only shooting 42.2% themselves, including an awful 5 of 21 from theee-point range. It also didn't help that they were outscored by eight, the difference in the game, from the FT line. I guarantee we won't be seeing a repeat of those numbers here this afternoon. Richmond is unbeaten in A-10 play and certainly playing well. They've been between 77 and 82 points in each of their four league wins, but still only outscored those teams by 8.5 PPG, even after the 78-61 win over St. Bonaventure earlier in the week. This is the first EVER - as in program history - that they have started 4-0 SU in A-10 play. However, they actually trailed the Bonnies at halftime before exploding for 51 pts in the final 20 minutes. 10* St. Joe's | |||||||
01-14-17 | Virginia -1.5 v. Clemson | 77-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
8* Virginia (12:00 ET): I routinely clown on the polls only because they are often a very poor guide for evaluating the top teams. Case in point; my play earlier this week against #1 Baylor, who no reasonable mind truly believed was the best team in the country. Even though the Bears were unbeaten, they were underdogs in Morgantown and subsequently got clobbered 89-68 by WVU. Here, it's a similar situation, only in reverse. Virginia is currently ranked #19, but the idea that there are 18 teams better than Tony Bennett's Hoos is just ludicrous. No doubt Clemson will be highly motivated here, at home and looking to break a three-game losing streak. But this number is just way too short. Lay the points. Virginia was on its own losing streak (two games) before routing Wake Forest on Sunday, 79-62 as 12-pt chalk. The Cavs shot 49.1% overall from the floor, including a blistering 9 of 19 from three-point range. Of course, there was also their trademark defense, which held Wake to 40.4% overall and 6 of 21 from three-point range. In case you were unaware, UVA ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allows just 52.1 points per game, fewest in the country. In their two recent losses, they gave up more than that, including an uncharacteristic 88 in their last road game, at Pitt. But I view that as "blip" on the radar, nothing more. The Cavs also have the edge here in that they've been off for five days while Clemson is playing for the second time in three days. The last time the Hoos had this much time off, they won their next game by 40 points! Clemson is 7-1 SU in Death Valley where the students are probably still partying over last Monday's College Football Playoff. The Tigers allow just 64.1 PPG at home, but the L3 games have seen them allow more than that YTD average (79.7). That includes an 89-86 home loss to North Carolina. Over the last week, they've lost at both Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They lost by double digits, as 10-pt favorites, Thursday in Atlanta (at Ga Tech). Clemson fans got to cheer for one big win this week; history will not repeat itself here. 8* Virginia | |||||||
01-13-17 | Cavs v. Kings +7 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:35 ET): Cleveland is not playing well right now, which should be readily apparent by the fact the World Champs are on a six-game ATS losing skid in the New Year. They've also lost three of those games outright, including the L2, at Utah and Portland in a set of back to backs. Before that, they struggled to put away low-level teams such as Brooklyn and Phoenix. So this has hardly been a productive road trip for LeBron and company and w/ this being the fifth game in eight days (and Golden State looming on MLK Day), even a visit to Sacramento may not turn things around. The Kings are off a win Tuesday night as they beat Detroit 100-94, a game where I cashed the Under. Take the points here. Before beating the Pistons, Sacramento was able to stay within the number against Golden State here at home. By comparison to that line (+11.5), this one appears to be too low. Unlike road-weary Cleveland, the Kings should be fine situationally as they've been off for two days and this will be their fifth straight home game (seven-game stand). At home, Sacramento has generally been competitive. They've been outscored here by only 1.0 PPG and when on two days' rest this year, they are 4-1 SU w/ a scoring margin of +8.2 PPG. Cleveland is just 4-12 ATS vs. teams w/ a losing record this year and their overall ATS record is near the bottom of the league. Part of the issue is that team defensive has fallen off a cliff this year as the Cavs are just middle of the road in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. They are giving up 104.4 PPG on the road. Even with the recent addition of Kyle Korver, depth remains a concern as this team doesn't have a backup point guard and HC Ty Lue is playing a pretty short rotation. The "Big 3" of LeBron, Love and Kyrie could very well lead the team to victory tonight, but it won't be by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for here. 8* Sacramento | |||||||
01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): The Eastern Conference has clearly taken shape w/ two teams (Cleveland, Toronto) on top and 3-4 (Brooklyn, Philly, Miami and probably Orlando) off the pace. Everyone else is bunched up in the middle. Boston was supposed to be Cleveland's top challenger this year and they are currently third. Right behind them, sitting in fourth, is Atlanta. The Hawks got off to a good start this year, but then had a terrible finish to November, leaving them treading water. But all of a sudden they've won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six. But while the Celtics can justify their place in the East pecking order, I view Atlanta as a bit overrated. Until their last game, they'd been outscored over the course of the season. The better team is getting points here. The Hawks just swept a four-game road trip, but it was hardly a daunting trip. The four teams they beat - Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn - all have win percentages of .400 or below. Here at home, they did upset San Antonio on New Year's Day. But w/ New York and Detroit being the other victims, that's just one winning team out of seven opponents that the Hawks have beaten during this streak. This will be their first time playing the Celtics since eliminating them in six games in LY's playoffs. That should clearly have Boston motivated here. The C's have lost six straight times in Atlanta, but are 13-6 ATS in road games this season. Despite being a bit short-handed, Boston has won 11 of 14, the only losses being of the close variety to OKC, Cleveland and Toronto. After losing to the Raptors Tuesday, there was an immediate bounce back Wednesday at home vs. Washington. They beat the Wizards 117-108 as 5.5-pt chalk. Isaiah Thomas led the way (again) w/ 38 points as the team shot better than 50 percent from the floor. The former Hawk, Al Horford also continues to play well. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Atlanta appeared to be in "teardown" mode as they dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. While a viable contender for one of the final playoff spots in the East, the Hawks have overachieved of late, simply taking advantage of a weak slate of games. 10* Boston | |||||||
01-13-17 | Yale +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Yale (8:00 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Yale has yet to play an Ivy League game, but they come into 2017 as the co-favorite to win the conference, along w/ Princeton. Penn just played Princeton on Saturday and I faded the Quakers in that spot. Sure enough, they failed to cover as 8.5 pt dogs (lost 61-52). While they weren't blown out and close to covering, I still see value in going against the Quakers again tonight. It's telling that they still lost to Princeton despite holding the short-handed Tigers to just 34.7% shooting from the field. It's tempting to credit the Penn defense for some of the past shooting percentages we've seen from opponents, but really I don't think it's sustainable. Yale comes in shooting at a nice 46.9% clip for the season. Take the points. Now, clearly, things won't be as easy for Yale as they were their last time out. On Saturday, they took on Mitchell College and won 102-46, thanks to shooting 61.5% for the game. The Bulldogs have not played a ton of lined games this year, but three of their five SU losses this year have come at the expense of Virginia, Pitt and Temple, all of those on the road. They did cover at Pitt (lost by only 5) and then they lost by only 6 at Temple. So, it's not as if they haven't been challenged. They've also gone to Washington this year and won. So far, they have managed to outscore opponents by 8.4 points per game while ranking 15th nationally in assists per game (17.8) and shooting 39.2% from three-point range. Six players average at least nine points per game w/ five of them shooting above 40% from behind the arc. One thing is for certain and that's Yale has had Penn's number through the years. They've beaten the Quakers eight straight times (four season sweeps) and done so by an average of greater than 15 points per game. The series history only makes this line seem more curious. Offensively, Penn continues to struggle as they average only 66.9 PPG, which is 301st. They are also only 261st in rebounds per game. One has to think if their opponents start shooting better, it could be a long year for the Quakers. Yale is more than capable of shooting well. 8* Yale | |||||||
01-13-17 | Sabres v. Hurricanes -175 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:35 ET): The Hurricanes are drawing the Sabres in the second of back to back games. Last night saw Buffalo go down at the hands of Tampa Bay, 4-2. That actually snapped a two-game win streak, but as we saw last night, this team still has its share of issues. Namely goal scoring as only two other teams - Colorado and Arizona - have scored fewer times this season. Also, on the goals allowed front, they are giving up an average of 3.0 per game their last four. Having the league's worst penalty kill certainly doesn't help matters there. The number of shots allowed (32.9 per game, 3rd most) also continues to be an issue. Meanwhile, if there's one thing that the 'Canes do especially well, it's limit the number of shots from their opponents. They're fourth best in that department, giving up just 27.2 per game. As indicated by the ML, this should be an easy one for the home team. Playing in the loaded Metro does Carolina no favors. At this point, you have to figure the top four teams in the division will all make the playoffs. That leaves just one spot available for the Hurricanes and that's only if they can finish better than the fourth place team in the Atlantic. However, consider that despite the long win streak the Flyers (5th in the Metro) had earlier this year, the 'Canes are just five points behind them and actually own a better YTD goal differential! Here on home ice, they've gone a strong 13-4-1 this year. That's after B2B strong performances against Boston and Columbus where the offense tallied a total of nine goals. Making this potentially a huge mismatch is the respective penalty killing units. I already mentioned that Buffalo is dead last in that department (73.4%). Well, Carolina happens to be 1st (88.5%). The Hurricanes are also well rested having last played Tuesday. That's when they beat the previously red-hot Blue Jackets. With the good job they do at limiting shots, you may wonder why the 'Canes aren't higher in the standings. Well, goaltending has been their primary issue. But Cam Ward at least has a .925 save percentage at home and, again, Buffalo ranks very low in terms of goals scored. 8* Carolina | |||||||
01-12-17 | Devils +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
8* Puck Line New Jersey (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line Play only where I'm taking the Devils +1.5. My how times have changed. It wasn't all that long ago (as in last year) where it would probably be next to impossible to get the +1.5 against the Oilers at a reasonably affordable price. But the team has somewhat taken off this year and is in playoff position. But they've also dropped two in a row and the reality of the matter is they've lost one more game than they've won this season. They've outscored opponents by only five goals over the course of the year and even on home ice, their record is just 9-8-2. New Jersey has lost three straight, all at home, including one to Edmonton. But it was a one goal difference out in East Rutherford (Oilers won 2-1 in OT). Again, I can see this one tied at the end of regulation or the Devils doing no worse than a one goal loss. They could also win! The Oilers have given up five goals in B2B games, which makes laying the 1.5 problematic for them. For all the "improvement" this year, they are just 7-12 in games against the Eastern Conference. They did outshoot the Devils 43-20 last week, but I wouldn't look for a similar discrepancy tonight. Yes, they have 117 shots total the L3 games, but can they keep that up? Probably not at the pace the Devils like to play. Furthermore, goaltending has become a concern in Alberta w/ both Cam Talbot and Jonas Gustavsson posting sub-.900 save percentages thier last four starts each. Consider that the last time the Oilers won a game by more than one goal was 12.29 and seven of their last eight victories have come by the one goal margin. That streak stretched all the way back to December 3rd. Half (nine) of their L18 games have been tied at the end of regulation. No team in the league has gotten stuck w/ the "loser's point" more than New Jersey has. They have lost eight times in either OT or a shootout. Over one-third of their games total (15 of 42) have gone past regulation. They were shutout Monday (by Florida), but do own a winning record against teams with losing records. Goaltender Corey Schneider owns a .933 save percentage his L4 starts. 8* Puck Line New Jersey (+1.5) | |||||||
01-12-17 | Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 210.5 | Top | 94-134 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Under Lakers/Spurs (8:35 ET): Two teams at the opposite ends of the NBA spectrum here. San Antonio isn't all that far behind Golden State for the top spot in the Western Conference, trailing by just 2.5 games. Then you have the Lakers, who are near the bottom of the West w/ a 15-27 SU record. Pop's team figures to be in a somewhat ornery mood this evening as they're coming off a 109-107 home loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Since X-Mas, the Spurs have held five of seven opponents below 100 pts and not surprisingly, they've won all five times (lost the other two). The Lakers managed only 87 pts against a Portland team which stinks defensively Tuesday and while their defense is a concern, I expect this game to have less scoring than what the oddsmakers are anticipating. Take the Under. The Spurs are just a hair behind Utah for the top spot in the league in defensive efficiency. Of course, they were #1 last year. They're allowing just 97.8 points per game this season and home games are averaging just barely above 200 PPG for them, total. So this is a bit of a high total for them. While Milwaukee (shot 52.4%) was able to come in and score 109 against them, the Spurs' previous two home games saw them allow only 82 and 85 points. The Under is 5-2 off a Spurs' loss this season. As mentioned earlier, it was an ugly night for the Lakers offensively in Portland on Tuesday as they shot just 38.6% from the floor. They scored just 31 points in the second half. The Over has cashed each of the L5 times these teams have met. That includes a 116-107 Spurs win in LA back in November. But tonight's O/U line is the highest one yet. San Antonio is getting LaMarcus Aldridge back tonight (missed Milwaukee game), but even so, I do not expect the team to have six different players finish up w/ double figure scoring like they did vs. the Bucks. The Spurs defense should certainly neutralize the Lakers offense and as far as the other end of the court goes, there's just no way SA will be as sharp shooting the basketball as they were in the earlier season meeting vs. the Lakers (56.4%). Time for an Under here. 8* Under Lakers/Spurs | |||||||
01-12-17 | Belmont v. Morehead State +4.5 | Top | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Morehead State (7:00 ET): It can't be understated what a big game this is for Morehead State as they get the best team in the Ohio Valley in their gym. At home is where all six of the Eagles victories have come this year (they're 0-8 off-campus) and they are averaging a whopping 91.4 points per game here. They've experienced a lot of close losses this year (two in overtime), but come into tonight's showdown off B2B wins over Eastern Illinois and SIU Edwardsville. Belmont is 3-0 SU already in OVC play and has won eight of nine overall. But this is the start of a tough stretch for them as they'll be playing two road games in the next three days. I "smell an upset" brewing tonight down in Kentucky. Take the points. Morehead State actually needed to rally from a slight halftime deficit to get by SIU Edwardsville in their last game. But it wound up being a 13-pt victory thanks to controlling the paint (30-22 edge in pts) and points off turnovers (19 off 22). This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it's not an embellishment to say this will likely be the biggest regular season game of the year on campus. Home court advantage has proven vital in past meetings between these two schools w/ the host team taking seven of nine. That includes both last year. Over the L2 seasons, it's been nothing but close games between the two w/ all four meetings decided by six points or less and three decided by two points or less. Again, the home team has won every time. Morehead State has lost all eight games in which it has been an underdog this season, but only one of those was here at home. That was to an East Tennessee State side that looks like it may win the SoCon. Meanwhile, Belmont has failed to cover the L2 times it has been road chalk, those games taking place at WI-Milwaukee (won by 6) and Austin Peay (won by 5). Something of concern for the Bruins is that they shoot just 25.7% from three-point range on the road. That will make it difficult to keep up w/ the high scoring Eagles, who shoot over 37% from long range overall. Until they scored 31 pts over the final 10 minutes Saturday vs. SE Missouri State, Belmont was actually trailing at home. 8* Morehead State | |||||||
01-12-17 | La Salle v. Rhode Island -12 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): The Rams, fairly quietly, have found themselves on the fringes of the Top 25 for most of this year. However, in the latest poll (released earlier this week), they didn't even receive a single vote. That's probably due to the fact that last Friday saw them drop a home game to fellow A-10 power Dayton, 67-64. But, as I always harp on, the polls should not really be used as any reliable guide to betting College Hoops (see Baylor-WVU). URI is still a top 35 team country in my estimation (Lunardi has them in the field of 68, FWIW), which is a lot better than tonight's opponent, LaSalle, a team I've had no problem fading so far this season. I anticipate the Explorers' lack of defense will cost them another A-10 affair tonight. Lay the points. Ironically, the last time I played against LaSalle, it was a poor effort at the offensive end that cost them. On December 30th, they were held to a season-low 55 points on 36% shooting as they lost at Dayton, 66-55. I'd previously played against them in a visit to Georgetown and there they allowed 93 pts in another double digit road loss. Defense has been the primary concern for the Explorers, even though they've responded w/ B2B wins since losing to Dayton. In the last game, as 11.5-pt home faves, they still allowed 81 points in a narrow win over Duquense. Their other win was against St. Louis. Safe to say, that those two wins came against two of the bottom three in the A-10 (along w/ Fordham). Not only is LaSalle allowing its opponents to shoot 47.3% from the floor overall, including 40% from three-point range, but they are giving up a ghastly 86.5 PPG away from home as well! Rhode Island has dominated LaSalle the last two seasons, winning all four matchups. Three of the wins have been by double digits. At home this year, the Rams are unbeaten (8-0!), winning by an average margin 18.1 PPG. Defensively, they are stout, holding teams to just 64.2 PPG overall. Off the loss to Dayton, I expect this team to be fired up to take the floor tonight. They turned the ball over 17 times vs. Dayton, costing them a game they led for most of the first 28 minutes. This is also the best offensive team in terms of points per possession in the A-10. 10* Rhode Island | |||||||
01-11-17 | Penguins v. Capitals -125 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Is it me, or is there seemingly a big game every night in the Metro? Right now, we have four of the best teams in the league - Columbus, Pittsburgh, Washington and the Rangers - separated by just three points. It's a damn shame that (at least) one of these four is guaranteed of not making it past the first round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. By virtue of that 16-game win streak, the Blue Jackets are still on top of the division w/ the other three all tied at 57 points. Two of those three teams trying to catch the Jackets meet tonight in the Nation's capital as Penguins at Capitals gives us the always much appreciated individual battle of Crosby vs. Ovechkin. But I believe it will be the Caps' edge in goal that decides this one. With Columbus having lost a few games recently, these are the two hottest teams in the league right now. Pittsburgh has won five straight, but Washington has done them one better w/ a six-game streak. Those six games have seen the Caps outscore opponents 24-9 w/ five of those goals allowed coming in the one game where Braden Holtby did not start. I look for Holtby to be the deciding factor tonight. He is the driving force behind the fact that the Caps give up the fewest number of goals per game in the league. His last four starts have seen him turn in a sick .956 save percentage w/ two shutouts. One of those was the game where Washington ended Columbus' 16-game win streak. Not only did the Caps shut Columbus out (5-0!) here at home last Thursday, but they also just went to Montreal and prevailed 4-1 over the Atlantic leading Habs w/ a 39-23 edge in shots. I hope that I've driven home what an impressive win streak this is. Of course, so is Pittsburgh's five game run which has seen them average 4.4 goals per game. But all but one of those wins came on home ice. They have a losing road record for the year. Meanwhile, Washington is 15-5-1 SU here at the Verizon Center, allowing just 1.9 goals and 25.5 shots per game. While Pens' netminder Marc-Andre Fleury has won seven of his last eight starts, his save percentage on the road is just .886 and I'd be concerned about the fact the team is allowing the fourth most shots per game (32.6) in the league. 10* Washington | |||||||
01-11-17 | Illinois State v. Southern Illinois +6 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Southern Illinois (8:00 ET): I'm always a bit cautious when it comes to taking a team off an upset victory. Here, Southern Illinois did just go on the road and beat Missouri State 75-67 - as 9-pt underdogs - on Saturday. But the Salukis are returning to Carbondale for tonight's tilt w/ in-state rival Illinois State. Taking points again, I believe they're a strong value. This is ISU's second consecutive road game as they too are off a win; 77-58 at Indiana State. But make no mistake about it; Larry Bird wasn't playing for the Sycamores on Saturday. Illinois State may still be unbeaten in MVC play (4-0 SU), but they have a giant lookahead to conference heavyweight Wichita State (whom they get at home) on Saturday. Take the points here. Interestingly enough, Southern Illinois beat Missouri State by a wider margin on the road than Illinois State did at home. Missouri State is a "middle of the road" team in the MVC, so they can serve as somewhat of a good barometer. Illinois State played them first, winning 74-71 (as eight-point favorites) at home, but needed overtime. That's one of only two games out of the last nine that the Redbirds have failed to cover. Three days later saw SIU go to Missouri State and record an upset. That was the Salukis' third straight win, so they come in hot as well. What was most impressive about Southern Illinois' performance on Saturday is that they took the lead five minutes into the game and never relinquished it. Now Illinois State was definitely impressive Saturday as well. Led by a career-best 31 pts from MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds routed Indiana State w/ a dominant first half performance (led 47-24 at the break). But I wouldn't look for them to go 13 of 25 from three-point range again here. While the Redbirds are ninth nationally in field goal percentage defense, they will have to contend w/ a SIU team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home. The Salukis are 8-2 SU in Carbondale so far, covering five of their six lined games here. They've also done their own strong job on the defensive end, particularly at converting opponents' turnovers into points. In seven straight games, they've scored at least 12 pts off TO's! 10* Southern Illinois | |||||||
01-11-17 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 209.5 | Top | 97-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Knicks/Sixers (7:05 ET): Philadelphia has long been one of the worst offensive teams in the league. In fact, they current check in at 30th (i.e. last) in efficiency as the ONLY team to be averaging less than one point per possession. However, they've been able to score 105 or more points three times during this four-game ATS win streak of theirs, which includes three straight up victories mind you, the latest coming at the expense of Brooklyn on Sunday. Already the Sixers have topped LY's win total! I think the recent offensive surge should continue here against a Knicks team that is just awful defensively. You would have to go all the way back to 12.22 to find the last time New York did NOT give up 100+ points in a game. However, I still don't trust Philly enough to take them in this spot. Therefore, we turn to the Over as I think the Knicks will be able to score plenty here as well. Of course, the Knicks' offense would probably be a little more effective if they knew where the hell Derrick Rose was. Rose went M.I.A. for the team's last game, a 110-96 home loss to the Pelicans. Seriously; Rose was a "no call, no show" for work that day as the team didn't even know where he was. Phil Jackson's Knicks everybody! Regardless, with Rose in the lineup the team had scored at least 103 points in each of its previous five games. By their standards, this is a low O/U line. The Over is 4-1 this season for them, in road games, if the O/U line is between 205 and 209.5. Defensively, the Knicks are not good, which I touched on earlier. To quantify, they are 26th in efficiency and give up 111.2 PPG on the road. They've allowed 100+ pts in 16 of the L17 games. The Sixers are no stalwart defensively either; they give up 105.9 PPG. So w/ two bad defensive teams here, there's clearly a recipe for an Over. That's the way that three of the four meetings last year went. The Atlantic Division rivals have yet to meet this year, but both are clearly improved from dreadful 2015-16 campaigns. Note that Monday, their first sub-100 point performance of the new year, saw the Knicks not only w/o Rose but leading scorer Carmelo Anthony as well by game's end. Anthony was ejected in the 3Q for arguing w/ an official. A full compliment of players from start to finish should lead to more offensive production here. 10* Over Knicks/Sixers | |||||||
01-11-17 | Dayton v. Massachusetts +6 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (7:00 ET): Dayton is a team some might consider worthy of Top 25 consideration as they have only three losses, all of them by four points or less. But I believe them to be a tad bit overvalued for tonight's venture into UMass. The Flyers are indeed "flying high" off five straight victories, the last four of which have also resulted in covers. Friday saw them down a good Rhode Island team, 67-64, as a short home dog. But this is just their third "true" road game so far and UMass will be a lot tougher than St. Bonaventure was at the start of the month. UMass will also be a desperate bunch as they've lost three straight, the last two coming on the road to George Mason and VCU. Take the points. Prior to this three-game losing skid that they're currently on, UMass had been playing pretty well. They were 10-3 SU going into the final game of 2016, which wound up being an outright home loss to St. Bonaventure. The Minutemen were two-point favorites there and have since lost as underdogs at George Mason (86-81) and VCU (81-64). Dayton signifies a drop in class from VCU and they're getting them in Amherst, so this should be an easier game for the Minutemen. It also shapes up almost as a "must-win" since this weekend sees them traveling to Rhode Island, another game where they'll be an underdog. I'm sure the upperclassmen remember LY's lone meeting w/ Dayton, a road game which resulted in a 30-point loss. Revenge! Dayton shot "lights out" in that lone meeting last season, finishing at 56% from the field, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. I certainly would not expect any kind of repeat of those numbers tonight. The Flyers were kind to me back on 12.30, beating LaSalle 66-55, ironically "doing it w/ defense" against an Explorers team that is really bad defensively. Since then, they've ripped St. Bonaventure for 90 points and then came the three-point win over Rhode Island. But consider they trailed the Rhodies for the first 32 minutes of that contest. While Dayton may still unbeaten in A-10 play, UMass is 4-2 ATS as a underdog this season. 8* Massachusetts | |||||||
01-10-17 | Pistons v. Kings UNDER 206 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
10* Under Pistons/Kings (10:35 ET): All of a sudden, Detroit has turned into an Over team w/ six straight games finishing that way. That's quite the departure from how the team both started the season (21-12-1 Under in first 34 games) and still profiles. This had been one of only three teams in the league (Utah, Memphis) to neither score nor allow 100+ points per game. The recent streak has changed that (allow & score 100.3 PPG), but I feel we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts here in this matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings. We still think of the Kings as a high-scoring outfit, but the fact is their offensive numbers are down under HC Dave Joerger as is their pace of play (considerably). Take the Under here. In terms of "true shooting" numbers, the Pistons are among the bottom five teams in the league. They play at an even slower pace than does Sacramento (26th) and fewer possessions naturally leads to less scoring. Despite all of the outcries from HC Stan Van Gundy regarding team defense, the Pistons actually still rank in the top 10 in efficiency at that end of the floor. It wasn't that long ago that they were in the top five! When looking at their most recent result - a 125-124 win at Portland Sunday night - beware of the fact that game went into double overtime. There was a total of 37 points scored in the extra 10 minutes, which is quite a lot. Portland is also among the worst defensive teams in the league. Sacramento has dipped to the bottom third in pace of play this season and is actually averaging only 102.3 PPG. While this might seem like a low number for them, note they just played Golden State, who is #1 in offensive efficiency. So of course the total will be lower here. It also appears as if the offensive burden that Boogie Cousins carries for this team has become too much. According to HC Joerger, Cousins is "exhausted" and it's showed w/ him going for only a combined 55 points the L3 games, all team losses. Look for this game to be lower-scoring than expected. 10* Under Pistons/Kings | |||||||
01-10-17 | Bruins v. Blues -106 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): Something just seems off in the Gateway City this season as they typically mighty Blues are, well, rather pedestrian. They are currently third in the Central Division, a position that would guarantee them a playoff berth come April. But they are already falling off the pace set by the top two teams in the division, Chicago and Minnesota. But if there's one interesting thing worth noting about this team it's the somewhat dramatic home vs. road split. Here at the Scottrade Center, they've been beaten only four times in regulation all season and hold a 16-4-4 overall record. Contrast that to a very poor 5-10-1 road record. Fortunately for tonight, they host Boston and I think home ice will be the difference in this one. Boston is second in its division, the Atlantic, but it's a weak group and a tenuous place. They too have fallen off the pace of their division leader (Montreal). The Bruins have actually lost more games than they've won this year and are the definition of mediocre w/ a YTD goal differential of 0. They come into this game having lost 4-3 at Carolina on Sunday (in OT), their third loss in the last four games. In all three losses, they've given up at least three goals. Tuukka Rask was not in goal against the 'Canes, but was the one to blame for a 4-2 home loss to the Blues back in November. That game saw the B's lose despite a 41-28 edge in shots that likely will not be present here. Furthermore, they've lost 19 of their past 26 visits to St. Louis. After losing to Carolina themselves (at home!) on January 5th, the Blues responded by beating Dallas their last time out, 4-3. Note that they won the game despite only 22 shots. They're not likely to shoot that well again, so a burden is placed on goaltender Jake Allen here. Allen hasn't been at his best of late, but does have a .918 save percentage here at home, at least. If his team can continue to limit the number of shot opportunities from opponents (just 24.6 L5 games), then he'll be just fine. I do give a big edge here to the Blues offensively as they rank 9th in goals per game while the Bruins are just 24th. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7.5 | 117-97 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): It takes a lot to get me to endorse the Nets, but getting this many points against a mediocre Atlanta outfit is enough to justify a play. Over the last week, there seems to be a real 180 degree turn in philosophy by the Hawks' franchise. Last week, they were putting their best player (Paul Milsap) on the market and also dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. But a four-game win streak seems to have changed management's idea of being "sellers" at the deadline. While they can't bring Korver back, Milsap has reportedly been taken off the market. But while the team may now find itself in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, I still look at a team w/ an efficiency rating of 0.0 as pretty pedestrian and a good fade as a road favorite. So take the points. Brooklyn should be motivated here as they're off an embarrassing home loss to Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. While the final score says they lost by 10, they were actually up 11 at the start of the second half. Being outscored 32-16 in the third quarter was the key to the entire game as they held the Sixers below 40% shooting overall. That being the Nets' sixth straight loss aside, the team has actually been competitive here at Barclays Center w/ a 10-8 ATS record (7-11 straight up). They demonstrated that competitiveness by hanging with Cleveland Friday night, losing that game by only eight as 13.5-pt dogs. While the Nets have only one win in the L12 games overall, it was at home (against Charlotte) in almost the exact same price range as tonight. Atlanta is looking to complete a perfect road trip here, but let's not go congratulating them too much, okay? The three teams they've beaten so far on the trip are: Orlando, New Orleans and Dallas. They did upset San Antonio, at home, on New Year's Day. But that win and the one in New Orleans both came by five points or less. There have been two previous times this season where the Hawks have been coming off three consecutive road games and both instances saw them lose the game and fail to cover. Without Korver, this team will be unable to maintain its' hot 40%+ shooting from three-point range that we've seen in the L6 games. 8* Brooklyn | |||||||
01-10-17 | Eastern Michigan -1.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 81-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): At first glance, Eastern Michigan hardly seems like an ideal candidate to lay points with, even a short number like this one, on the road. The Eagles are just 2-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti this season and just dropped a game there, as 7.5-pt favorites, to Buffalo on Saturday. But here they'll be faced w/ a team outside of the top 200 nationally and that's Bowling Green. The Falcons seem to be flying high off an upset of Ball State (in Muncie) on Saturday, but tonight promises to be a crash landing of sorts. Eastern Michigan will have revenge on its mind for losing LY in Ypsilanti - as 8.5-pt chalk - to the Falcons. That was a game where they dug too large a hole early (trailed by 11 at the half) to climb out of. Prior to the loss Sunday, EMU had won three straight, all by 22 points or greater. Granted, all those games were at home. But they've actually already covered as road chalk once this year, laying a much bigger number in fact, at Detroit. As a favorite, the Eagles are 4-1 ATS this season and won 20 of 27 straight up the L3 seasons. So what went wrong Saturday? Well, for starters, they shot the ball poorly (only 36.8%). For the season, this is a team connecting at above a 45% clip. The Eagles did lead for a good portion of the game Saturday before succumbing to a late Buffalo run. It also didn't help that as the home team, EMU attempted less FT's than did Buffalo. I expect the Eagles to play better tonight. After all, this is a top 25 scoring offense in the country at 83.8 PPG. Bowling Green pulled the upset at Ball State on Saturday as they were able to rally from a halftime deficit. Attempting 11 more free throws certainly helped. That kind of margin is certainly unusual for the road team. Also, Ball State was an abysmal 4 of 25 from three-point range. The Falcons' defense does do a good job at turning their opponents over, but EMU won't be shooting anywhere near that poorly here tonight. In fact, if anything, it will be the Eagles' trademark 2-3 zone that should "rule the day" defensively. Consider that Eastern Michigan was a nine-point favorite AT Detroit while BGSU was asked to lay the same number here at home. Not sure why the linesmakers' discrepancy has grown so much tighter in less than a month, but take advantage and lay the very short number. 10* Eastern Michigan | |||||||
01-10-17 | Baylor v. West Virginia -5.5 | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Baylor may be unbeaten and the new "#1" in the country. Kansas may be the standard-bearer of excellence in the conference. But, for my money, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 this year and I'm on 'em again Tuesday night in Morgantown. Though they failed to cover Saturday (by one-half point) here against TCU, it was still a nice bounce back from Bob Huggins' Mountaineers after suffering just their second loss of the season the game previous (at Texas Tech). As you can tell, the oddsmakers have little respect for the pollsters here as they've installed the supposed "#1 team in the country" as an underdog. They are correct in doing so. Lay the points. Here at home, WVU is 9-0 SU this season (33-5 SU L38), winning by an average margin of 36.1 points per game. They only beat TCU by 12 on Saturday, but led the entire way (by 11 at half). What cost them the cover was a second half swoon where the Horned Frogs went from 13 down to tie the game. But, in the end, Huggins will take it. His trademark press forced TCU into a season-high in turnovers (18), which is the norm for WVU opponents. Last year, in a home and home sweep of Baylor, the Mountaineers surprisingly only forced 24 turnovers in the two games. But they held the Bears to 37% shooting and won both games by 11 points anyway. I don't think anybody - besides the pollsters - really thinks Baylor is the top team in America. In fact, they are not even in my top five. Remember, coming into the year, they were picked to finish fifth - in the Big 12 - by those who supposedly know the conference. Their ascension from being unranked to #1 in the polls is impressive, but also greatly aided by the fact they've played just one "true" road game thus far, that being at Oklahoma, who is the weakest team in the league. They did win in Norman by 16, but since then it's been a pair of narrow victories, by two over Iowa State and by four vs. Oklahoma State, both at home. Kansas came into Morgantown ranked #1 in the country last year and lost. Also, WVU just destroyed the same Oklahoma State team - by 17 - in Stillwater. 8* West Virginia | |||||||
01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama OVER 50.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
8* Over Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): What I find so fascinating about this year's title game is that both the underdog & under, while typically tied together, are the choices of the public. That's certainly atypical as more often than not, their preferred combo is the favorite & over. By no means am I being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian here. After all, I did cash the Over in LY's title game between these same two teams. In handicapping this year's rematch, much of the discussion concerning the total has talked about how Alabama & Clemson won't be combining to score 85 points again. Well, fortunately, they do not have to. We have a whopping five touchdown margin of error to work with here and thus I'll be going Over again. What both defenses did in their respective dominant CFP semifinal victories is a big reason why many are expecting a low-scoring Championship Game. (Both games went Under). Alabama's defense is definitely the best in the country and held Washington below 200 total yards in a 24-7 win. But the Crimson Tide certainly didn't look like what we've come to expect from a Nick Saban defense LY vs. Clemson. There, they gave up 400+ yards and 31 first downs, barely surviving in a 45-40 win. That was when the Tigers didn't have WR Mike Williams either. Williams' presence should be a major factor in this year's rematch. Also, a point that has been driven home ad nauseam is how Clemson QB DeShaun Watson is precisely the kind of signal-caller that Saban stop units tend to struggle against. Watson and his offense come in averaging 39.5 PPG, for the record. The Clemson defense shut out Ohio State on New Year's Eve, allowing just over 200 total yards. The fact that Alabama has changed offensive coordinators in the week leading up to the biggest game of the year is a major deal. The transition from Lane Kiffin (who called an awful game vs. Washington) to Steve Sarkisian will not be seamless and the Crimson Tide may very well struggle early. But remember; last year's title game was only 14-14 at halftime before both offenses exploded in the 2H. Alabama averages 39.4 PPG, almost an identical number to Clemson. This Tigers' defense did allow 35+ pts twice down the stretch, once to Pitt (their only loss) and to Virginia Tech in the ACC Title Game. Prior to the Washington game, the Over was 8-1 in Alabama neutral field games. 8* Over Clemson/Alabama | |||||||
01-09-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): It's pretty shocking (at least to me!) that through 37 games, the T'wolves have the exact same record as do the Mavericks (11-26 SU). IMO, Minnesota has been the better team all season. Unfortunately for them, they have been unable to close out games and while the "future is bright" here, it's clear that making the playoffs is not a realistic goal, until next season. That said, I do feel that at home the T'wolves should be able to handle the Mavs tonight. Dallas came up short in what I thought would be an advantageous spot, at home vs. Atlanta Sat night, which says a lot about the current state of this team. They are not good on the road by the way; 4-15 SU getting outscored by over eight points per game. Minnesota has been a money loser when favored (5-10 ATS) this season and their inability to string together any kind of win streak (only won B2B games once!) is largely what's doomed them. They come into tonight on a four-game losing streak, two of those losses coming by just two points. However, they did cover Saturday night in Utah, improving to 6-1 ATS when on a losing streak of 3+ games. However, to players and fans, that's a Pyrrhic victory as the team blew an 11-pt lead by scoring only 12 pts in the fourth quarter. Tonight, they not only snap the losing streak, but they cover the spread w/ room to spare. I still have faith in HC Tom Thibodeau to turn this thing around as he has THREE 20+ pt scorers - Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. Dallas has not been healthy for much of this season. But even though they are now, they've still lost three of four, including an ugly 82-point effort Saturday at home vs. Atlanta. That followed an outright loss (again at home) to Phoenix. This is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and on the road they average only 94.2 points per game. Saturday marked the sixth time this year that they've scored 85 points or less. They are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS off the previous five. This is a big revenge game for the T'wolves as well as they lost all four H2H meetings vs. Dallas last season. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
01-09-17 | Capitals v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
9* Over Capitals/Canadiens (7:35 ET): On a night when the top two College Football teams in the country face off, so too will two of the top teams in the NHL. Montreal appears to have a "leg up" on the rest of the Atlantic right now w/ a nine-point lead coming into Monday. To me, they are the only team from that division with a chance of making noise in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Washington plays in the far more competitive Metropolitan and is fourth despite having just one less point than Montreal. The Caps have won five straight and considering the win streaks we've seen from some of their division rivals this year, it's pretty impressive that they are still neck and neck. No opinion on the side here, so let's turn to the total. In terms of allowing goals, these clubs rank 1st (Washington) and 5th (Montreal) in the league. But they are also both top nine in goals scored per game. Washington is coming off B2B shutout victories, the latest by a 1-0 score at Ottawa. But prior to that, they'd scored five or more goals three times during this current win streak. The win over Ottawa marked the 1st time this season that the Under hit for the Capitals when they were off a shutout victory (previously 3-0). The Over is 12-6 in that situation for them (applies here) the L3 seasons. It's also 6-3 this season (excluding pushes) when on the road and the total is 5.0. They come in averaging over 30 shots per game for the year. Montreal is averaging 37.6 shots over the course of its last five games. But at the same time, they are also allowing 35.0 per game. Thus, it's no surprise to see a bevy of recent high scoring results for them, the latest of which was a 5-3 win at Toronto on Saturday. That followed a 4-3 win at Dallas. While tonight's opponent may not allow for such a wide open contest as the previous two did, I still expect plenty of goals to be scored. Yes, it's Holtby vs. Price in goal, but the Habs happen to be 6-2 Over this season coming off a game where they scored 4+ goals. 9* Over Capitals/Canadiens | |||||||
01-09-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -7.5 | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): This is a triple revenge spot for Ga Southern, who lost three times (including Sun Belt tourney) to South Alabama last year. Plus, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot for USA, who I would rate as the worst overall team in the league. That combination of factors has me laying the points Monday night. Ga Southern has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Winthrop (a game they were NOT expected to win) by two points. Meanwhile, South Alabama is coming off B2B one-point games, the last being a 78-77 loss to Georgia State on Saturday that will prove difficult to get over. While South Alabama should end up residing at the bottom of the Sun Belt, Ga Southern should end up being close to the top. Right now, I'd consider them third in the pecking order, behind only UL Lafayette and TX-Arlington. Saturday saw them down Troy here at home, 86-82, as 5.5-pt favorites. That failure to cover, I believe, has created some value for this matchup. It's certainly not a bad situation as this will be the Eagles' fourth consecutive home game. Having to go on the road for two next weekend (UL Lafayette, UL Monroe), I'd say it's pretty imperative for the Eagles to take care of business here. Though they failed to cover against Troy, they did lead the entire second half, typically by more than what the oddsmakers were asking for. They did so despite going only 7 of 29 from three-point range. By the way, in five home games so far, the Eagles are averaging 90.8 points per game! South Alabama really let one get away on Saturday as they allowed Georgia State to score the game's final eight points en route to coming out on the losing end, 78-77. That result is a "bitter pill to swallow" and like I said earlier, will be difficult to get over. Of course, GSU won't be lacking for motivation here as LY's three losses to USA all came by six points or fewer. The Eagles shot poorly, as in below 37% overall, in all three games. This year's squad is much improved though and is 17-5 SU L22 Sun Belt home games. South Alabama has just two road wins thus far (lost at Stetson), one of them coming against a terrible Southern Miss team. Other than at Minnesota, Ga Southern really hasn't played a bad game this year as three of their six losses have been by three points or less. This is only their third game in the last 19 days (rested!) and I like how they defend the three-point line (opponents shooting only 30.3% against them at home). USA is shooting less than 30% from behind the arc for the year. 8* Georgia Southern | |||||||
01-08-17 | Cavs v. Suns OVER 218.5 | Top | 120-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Over Cavs/Suns (8:35 ET): To me, this shapes up exactly the same as my last Over play, which was Cleveland visiting Brooklyn. Only this time, the Cavaliers will have both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love back in the lineup as they face a team that is just as bad defensively. Thus, the play is even stronger! While the Suns allow "only" 111.3 points per game compared to the league-worst 114.3 PPG allowed by the Nets, the difference in efficiency is negligible. Sure, Phoenix has gone Under in five straight games, thanks to some uncharacteristically solid defense. But we shouldn't see any of that here. Furthermore, as I mentioned in the Cleveland-Brooklyn writeup from Friday, the Cavs' own defensive efficiency isn't that good. Take the Over. Scoring has exploded in the NBA this year, resulting in some really high totals. But Cleveland is still 6-1 Over in road games when the O/U line is 210+ including the last game. Coming off B2B sub-100 pt games, they torched the Nets for 116 despite shooting only 43.2% from the floor. They should shoot better here against a Suns side permitting its opponents to shoot 46.5% for the year. Having both Love and Irving back will obviously help. Note that there's a chance that Kyle Korver (just acquired) could join the team here. With or without him, the Cavs will find success shooting the three as they are among the league-leaders in percentage and attempts. Defensively though, let's note Cleveland has allowed 100+ points in six of its past seven games. Phoenix has been held below its season average of 105.6 PPG six straight times, even as they've pulled off rare B2B wins over Miami and Dallas. This is obviously a big step up in class for them, but scoring should rise. The Suns are a perfect 6-0 this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Overall, this is one of the top five Over teams in the league (despite five straight Unders), so recent results have been nothing more than a little "market correction" after a 23-9 Over start to the season. Again, after turning in four of its best defensive performances of the year over the L5 games, I would expect the team to regress at that end here. 10* Over Cavs/Suns | |||||||
01-08-17 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
9* Under Flyers/Blue Jackets (6:05 ET): Any time that a team (in any sport) goes on the kind of win streak that Columbus just did (16 straight!), they will inevitably start to "give some back" over the short-term. Sure enough, the Blue Jackets have dropped two in a row, giving up 10 goals in the process. After being shutout 5-0 by the Capitals on Thursday, it was a 5-4 loss last night at home to the Rangers. Still leading the incredibly competitive Metro, the Jackets' don't have much margin for error as three teams (Rangers, Pens, Caps) are all within three points of the top spot. Another team in the division that had a long win streak this year is Philadelphia (10 in a row). Sure enough, they've since lost seven of nine. For the first time this year these teams meet Sunday and do so w/ both playing the second game of a back to back. The Flyers are overrated. Sorry if that offends you. While the top four in the Metro are all among the top teams in the league, Philly has been outscored this season. They did win last night, 4-2 over Tampa Bay. But that was at home. Columbus is an opponent that has been unkind to them, particularly in visits to Ohio. The Flyers have lost 11 of their past 12 visits here. It was a pair of 3-2 losses last year. All four goals came in the second period last night. While this has mainly been an Over team this year and they've averaged 34.4 shots the L5 games, I expect the offense to struggle here against Sergei Bobrovsky and his .938 save percentage at home. On their last road trip, which resulted in four losses, Philly was shutout twice. As I just said, Columbus should get better goaltending tonight. Bobrovsky did struggle against the Capitals on Thursday, but was not between the pipes last night. That was a tough loss for the Blue Jackets as Curtis McElhinney gave up three third period goals. As mentioned above, Bobrovsky has a strong save percentage at home. This team is third in goals allowed per game, a big reason why they are in first place. The Under is also 6-2 for them when playing in the second game of a back to back. It's also 10-4 Under here at home when the O/U line is 5.5. 9* Under Flyers/Blue Jackets | |||||||
01-08-17 | Oakland v. Illinois-Chicago +9 | Top | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Illinois-Chicago (5:00 ET): This would be a classic letdown spot for favored Oakland, playing its second road game in three days and off an outright upset of fellow Horizon heavyweight Valparaiso. Make no mistake about; the Golden Grizzlies have been an incredibly successful money-maker at the betting window, covering over two-thirds of their games the L3 seasons, including the last four. But this is a pretty big number to be caught laying given the circumstances. UIC is playing its sixth straight home game and had no issue w/ Detroit on Friday, winning and covering that game 78-64 as seven-point favorites. Take the points. Oakland can now claim to be the Horizon League favorite due to the win at Valpo. The key was taking what was a four-point halftime lead and stretching it to 15 just 3:30 into the second half. From that point forward, Valpo never got closer than five. But the Golden Grizzlies are now dealing with the burden of having to win by a certain margin. Granted, they've eclipsed it three straight times, but playing the second time on the road in three days is tough regardless of who you are and what conference you play in. Yes, this team can score in bunches and is 24-9 ATS its L33 road games. But there's a juncture when we reach a "tipping point," and for Oakland today is that time. Will they really win a fourth straight league game by double digits? UIC has some "momentum" (hate that word!) after shooting a blistering 57.8% from the floor in the 78-64 win over Detroit. Will the Flames match that percentage here? Not likely, but they do lead all Horizon League teams w/ a 47.2 field goal percentage. Thus, I think they can keep pace w/ the high powered Golden Grizzlies. UIC's home split, in terms of points scored vs. allowed, is roughly the same as Oakland's on the road. Coming off a conference win, the Flames are 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons. While they've lost the last four regular season matchups to Oakland, the Flames did upset them in the 2015 Conference Tourney. I just think that this line is too high. 8* Illinois-Chicago | |||||||
01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (4:40 ET): Twice during the Tom Coughlin era (2007, 2011), the Giants made somewhat improbable Super Bowl runs. Both times saw them have to go through a heavily favored Packers team - on the road - to get there. Including that pair of outright playoff victories, the G-Men have covered five straight times against the Pack. Only three of those have come against Aaron Rodgers, however, and the last time was Week 5 of this year, a game they lost 23-16 (but just barely covered as 7.5-pt dogs). This time around, GB isn't so heavily favored and I think we can take advantage of that as this looks to be the hottest team in the league right now East of New England. Lay the points. The Packers enter the playoffs riding a six-game win streak. For the first 10 weeks of the season, Rodgers looked shockingly ordinary, but that's all changed now. Over the L4 games, the offense has averaged just over 34 points per game. Yes, the Giants defense has improved tremendously this year, but it's hardly been a "murderer's row" of QB's that they've had to face. The only "Pro Bow-level" QB that they've had to face the L8 games was Ben Roethlisberger and not surprisingly that was the game they gave up the most points (24) and also lost. Going back to Week 11, Rodgers has completed almost 70 percent of his passes at 8.47 yards per attempt w/ a 15-0 TD-INT ratio. Overall, the Pack have turned the ball over just one time during the six-game win streak. While not as lucky to make the playoffs as the Texans, Lions or Dolphins, I view the Giants as a "lucky" team nonetheless. For instance, they actually won two games this year despite having a -3 turnover ratio. The rest of the league was just 2-43 SU in such affairs. Flipping the script from past years, they also performed well in "close games," going 8-3 SU in those decided by seven points or less. One of the losses was against the Packers, 23-16, and they were actually outgained in that game by almost a 2:1 margin (406-219). With Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr, you'd expect this offense to be good, but they were not as they failed to score even 20 points in any of the last five games and in fact scored more than 22 in only four games all season! The fact that we're getting a lower line on the Packers vs. the same opponent they beat earlier in the year - at a time they're playing much better - is a steal in my book. Note they actually led New York 23-9 until a garbage time TD in that reg season matchup as well, so the game was not really as close as the final score might seem to indicate. Watch out for Tight End Jared Cook in this game as well. 10* Green Bay | |||||||
01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers UNDER 46 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 90 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Dolphins/Steelers (1:00 ET): This O/U line opened as the highest of the four Wild Card games. I think too high. We think of the Steelers as a high-scoring, explosive team, but their games averaged "only" 45.3 points per game, which was as middle of the road as it gets in the league. Dolphins games were actually - on average - slightly higher scoring at 46.5 PPG. While the difference between the two is rather nominal, Miami actually wound up at 12-4 Over for the season, closing on an 8-0 run their final eight games. This, however, is the playoffs and I don't see the offense being quite as successful in this environment. Not w/ career backup QB Matt Moore at the helm going against a battle-tested Pittsburgh team. I like the Under here in this regular season rematch. The regular season meeting between these two - won by Miami, 30-15 - is what turned the Dolphins' season around for good. They were 1-4 SU heading into that game, where they were 7.5-point underdogs - at home! It should be noted that one previous win was against Cleveland, in overtime. So what happened that day? Well, RB Jay Ajayi had his breakout performance, running for the first of what would be three 200+ yd games this season (other two were both against Buffalo). Even w/ Cam Hayward missing from the Steelers' defense this time around, I would not expect a repeat performance from Ajayi though. In six of the last seven games, the Miami offense has failed to gain even 100 yards rushing. Throwing out its meaningless regular season finale vs. Cleveland, the Steelers were generally very good at stopping the run down the stretch (allowed less than 100 yds in 5 of previous 6 games). It should also be mentioned that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in the loss to Miami. His return for this playoff rematch is offset by the Dolphins starting Moore, however. Miami's offensive success this year was basically a result of "chunk" i.e. big plays and the number of those has come down w/ Moore under center. This offense only averaged 22.7 PPG for the year and that's factoring in a lot worse defenses than the one they'll see here. In particular, the Steelers' does a great job at buckling down in the red zone. It's also worth noting that while Big Ben is back, the Pittsburgh offense managed only eight points through three quarters against this Dolphins defense the first go around and that was w/ Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown both playing as well. Rematches tend to be lower scoring that initial meetings (familiarity!) and if that's the case here, the Under is ours. This will be one of the higher O/U lines of the year for Miami. 10* Under Dolphins/Steelers | |||||||
01-07-17 | Canucks v. Flames -175 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
6* Calgary (10:05 ET): These two Western Canadian rivals just met last night w/ Vancouver coming out ahead, 4-2. It was the Canucks' sixth straight victory, a streak that comes as a real surprise given how they started the season and what the projections were prior the season even beginning. But one could really make the argument that the Canucks probably should have lost last night. I'm about to. They were outshot 46-13, a stunning margin for a victorious team. That was a season-high in shots allowed, so goalie Ryan Miller definitely bailed them out. Meanwhile, scoring four times on just 13 shots is something that probably won't happen again for the remainder of the season. The Flames get revenge tonight at home. Not only were those 46 shots a season-high for the number allowed by Vancouver, it was also a season-high for Calgary on the offensive end. You can tell the Flames' players knew they really let one get away last night. "We played a good game," said Calgary captain Mark Giordano, "We can definitely pinpoint some mistakes." Despite the loss, the Flames remain ahead of the Canucks (by a point) in the Pacific Division standings, though both currently occupy Wild Card positions in the Western Conference. Regardless if it's Brian Elliott again or Chad Johnson (preferable), expect better play between the pipes from the Flames tonight. It will be interesting to see if Miller goes again for the Canucks. If so, can he bail them out again the same way he did last night? Not likely. Jakob Markstrom isn't much of a downgrade, but I keep coming back to how surprising this six-game win streak is. Vancouver was projected for one of the lowest point totals in the entire league coming into the year and prior to the streak starting, had pretty much been true to the projections. It should also be noted that five of the six wins came on home ice w/ the two prior to last night at the expense of Colorado and Arizona (two worst teams in the league). They have lost 7 of their last 9 trips to the Saddledome. Also, they are 2-7 SU this year following a game where they scored 4+ times. Advanced metrics suggest the way this team has been winning is NOT sustainable. 6* Calgary | |||||||
01-07-17 | Hawks v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 97-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I don't have a ton of respect for Atlanta right now, particularly in the road favorite role. That's even when matched up against one of the worst teams in the league as they are tonight. Earlier in the week, they did go to Orlando and blow out the Magic as short chalk. Then they followed that up w/ a win at New Orleans (as 2-pt dogs), 99-94. Overall, the Hawks have won four in a row, including a win over San Antonio (at home). So why don't I respect them that much? Well, a potential teardown has begun w/ the trade of Kyle Korver to Cleveland. Though the Hawks have a winning record (20-16 SU), they've been outscored this season and still sport a negative efficiency rating as well. Take the points here. Now Dallas is admittedly a lot worse off than Atlanta. The Mavs have definitely fallen on "hard times" w/ their 11-25 SU record, which includes an outright loss here at home to Phoenix two nights ago. That was a rare time that this team was favored. They also actually closed as the slightest (1-pt) of faves against Washington the game previous when they did win SU, 113-105 here in 'Big D.' Being favored by the amount they were against the Suns doesn't suit this team well, but thankfully no margin of victory is being required here. It's shocking that prior to the last two games, Dallas had been favored only ONE time previously all season! This is the Mavs' third straight home game while it is the Hawks' third straight road game (in four nights, no less). Therefore, situationally, things set up better for Dallas here. Something to take note of w/ the Mavs of late is that their offensive efficiency has been way up. There was a time they actually ranked last in the league in that department. But now, they are "up" to 23rd w/ the exact same rating as Atlanta. Some of that is due to Dirk Nowitzki being back. The Hawks average less than 100 PPG on the road this year and impending moves by the front office are likely to kill morale. 10* Dallas | |||||||
01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:15 ET): Having finished the regular season 9-7 SU, the Detroit Lions did indeed make the playoffs. But, by any objective measure, this is simply not a very good football team. They were both outscored and outgained over the course of the season, which is indicative of sub-.500 level play. In only one of their nine victories (a 28-13 win at New Orleans in Wk 13) did they not need a 4Q comeback. In fact, in every game but that 28-13 win at New Orleans, they trailed at some point in the fourth quarter! Their eight come from behind victories in the 4Q set a new NFL record! Of course, since that one wire-to-wire victory over the Saints, they have not covered a game (0-4 ATS) and ended the regular season on a three-game SU losing streak. Now - for a second straight game - they are playing on a short week, in Seattle no less, which is the toughest venue for visiting teams in the league and it's a primetime game to boot (which tend to favor the Pacific Time Zone team). Lay the points in this Wild Card matchup. Now, I'm not as high right now on Seattle as I've been going into the playoffs in recent years. The loss of safety Earl Thomas figures to catch up w/ them, particularly if matched up against Matt Ryan and Atlanta next week. But Matt Stafford and the Lions' offense simply lack the horses to take advantage. This edition of the Seahawks may not be as strong as recent years, but they still outgained opponents by over 40 YPG and finished w/ the sixth best point differential in the league. They were also second in the league in yards per play differential. Here at home, even w/ the loss to Arizona two weeks ago, they still outscored opponents by an average of 11.4 PPG at home. By the way, the Lions lost all five games against playoff teams this year. Every loss came by at least a touchdown and generally speaking, they weren't that competitive in any of them. The franchise is also 0-7 SU in the playoffs since a Barry Sanders-led squad reached the NFC Title Game in '91. They're 1-5-1 ATS in those games as well. The Detroit offense is basically one-dimensional as they rank 30th in the league in rush yards at just 81.9 YPG. Good luck running on a Seahawks defense that is among the top seven in stopping the run. The Seahawks' pass defense may not be what it was w/ Thomas in there, but I don't see the Lions taking advantage as Stafford has regressed significantly since injuring his finger back in Week 14. On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense is very overrated. They got gashed badly over the L2 weeks (by Dallas & Green Bay) and actually finished dead last in DVOA (the metric used by the indispensable Football Outsiders). Russell Wilson will take advantage of that and it's also worth noting the Lions' defense did not force a single turnover the L4 weeks. 10* Seattle | |||||||
01-07-17 | Raptors -2 v. Bulls | Top | 118-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Bulls have pulled off back to back minor upsets, but I won't give them much credit for beating Cleveland on Wednesday as both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were out. Prior to that win and one over Charlotte (at home), Chicago had gone just 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread their previous seven games. Tonight, they host another Eastern Conference heavyweight, that being Toronto. Surprising to some is the fact the Raptors are tops in the conference in both YTD point differential and efficiency rating. I was absolutely shocked to learn that the Raptors are 0-8 SU and ATS vs. the Bulls the L2 seasons. That is absolutely not indicative of respective overall performance during that time. Toronto snaps this shocking losing streak tonight! Led by Kyle Lowry's 33 points and five assists, the Raptors beat a good Jazz team Thursday night, 101-93 as 5.5-point chalk. It was a nice bounce back for them after getting dismantled by San Antonio two nights earlier. Having played Golden State, San Antonio and Utah all in the L5 games, the Bulls represent a drop in class in terms of opponent for Toronto. It has been the offense that has carried the Raptors this year; only the Warriors rank higher in efficiency. They are third in the league in 3-point field goal percentage. They are averaging 110 PPG overall. Those kind of numbers are simply too much for a Bulls team that is simply average overall and is 19th in offensive efficiency. Two of the Bulls' four wins over the Raptors last year came by only two points (both in Toronto). Chicago's strong start to this season caught me by surprise, but predictably they've begun to regress. There are rumors that Jimmy Butler may be dealt and that HC Fred Hoiberg's job is not secure. I just don't like the way this team is presently constructed. Meanwhile, this will be perhaps the strongest Raptors team that has ever come to the Windy City. Only the Warriors and Spurs have a better win percentage in games decided by double digits compared to Toronto's 13-2 record. They are an Eastern Conference best 22-12 ATS overall this year and Chicago is 11-21 ATS off a SU dog win. 10* Toronto | |||||||
01-07-17 | Pennsylvania v. Princeton -6.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Princeton (7:00 ET): Exams may be over with in the Ivy League, but for Penn, there's perhaps a greater challenge in front of them. That would be tonight's conference opener, which calls for a trip to league favorite Princeton. It's believed to be a "two-horse race" in the Ivy this year (Princeton and Yale), so pretty much disregard the fact that both of these schools come in riding three-game win streaks. I was a bit surprised to find that Penn has had plenty of ATS success at Princeton's expense through the years (25-12 ATS L37 meetings, including 15-4 on the road). Both of LY's matchups were decided by two points or less (Princeton won both). But I don't like the Quakers getting such a short number this time around. Princeton ended it's non-conference slate on New Year's Eve by destroying Cal Poly 81-52. (My goodness, the Big West is bad!). That was the Tigers' second blowout win in a row at home as they had handled Hampton 77-49 just three days earlier (allowed only 16 second half points!). Including those victories, they are now outscoring visiting teams by 27.8 points per game at home this year. It was the offense that carried Princeton against Cal Poly as they shot a ridiculous 56% from the field. Will they match that here? Probably not, but I don't think they have to. Not w/ a defense that has held those last two opponents to just 34.1 and 36.4% respectively. I don't see Penn having much offensive success in this game. Penn was able to beat Fairfield on 12.30 despite starting the game 0 for 11 from three-point range! Of course, it helped that Fairfield shot a miserable 33% for the entire game themselves. The Quakers trailed at the half that last game, but were really lucky that Fairfield was an absolutely atrocious 13 of 40 on two-point attempts. Really, the Quakers have consistently benefited from awful shooting from their opponents this season. That won't happen here. This should be a double digit spread. 10* Princeton | |||||||
01-07-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -16 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Louisiana Tech (7:00 ET): Taking inventory of Conference USA, you can expect Louisiana Tech to finish at or near the top of the league this year while UT-San Antonio should reside at the bottom. There's a pretty sizable gap between the top and bottom of this large league, one that's not being accounted enough for by the linesmakers tonight in Ruston. La Tech enters this game having won five of six w/ their lone loss coming by a single point to Fla Gulf Coast (remember them?). Meanwhile, UTSA is off an awful loss to fellow C-USA lightweight Southern Miss (77-59 as 2-pt road chalk). That same Southern Miss team lost to La Tech by 24 at home the game previous. Lay the points here in what should be an absolute blowout. La Tech will be the top challenger to Middle Tennessee this year for league bragging rights. They don't play the Blue Raiders until the end of the month, so between now and then there's a chance to rack up a ton of victories. The Bulldogs' last four victories have all come by at least 20 points. They've dominated opponents here in Ruston, going 9-1 SU while winning by an average margin of 23.8 points per game. Again, that one loss came by a single point. Did I mention they'll be hosting a team that's 0-9 SU away from home and averaging only 62.4 PPG in such affairs? Oh, I hadn't? Well, that's the case. The average MOV in La Tech's 4-0 sweep of UTSA the L2 season has been 11.25 PPG. But the discrepancy between the two schools is as great as it's ever been right now. That winless record away from home didn't stop the oddsmakers from favoring UTSA at Southern Miss (who is admittedly terrible) on Thursday. I can't overstate what a bad loss that was for the Roadrunners, however. Southern Miss had lost its previous nine games and was down eight at halftime. But in the second half UTSA was outscored by 26! Now they have to face a team that is shooting 51% for the year at home and has held three straight opponents around 33% shooting overall! La Tech's 64-44 beatdown over UTEP is indicative of what to expect here, only the beatdown should be more severe. UTEP was held to just 19 second half points. 10* Louisiana Tech | |||||||
01-07-17 | TCU v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (1:00 ET): Not all 12-2 teams are "created equal" and that's certainly the case in this Big 12 matchup Saturday afternoon. West Virginia may have been stunned Tuesday night in Lubbock (lost 77-76 to Texas Tech), but that didn't change my view that they are one of the top teams in the country. They came into the week underrated by the pollsters (only 7th??) and should bounce back in a major way here in Morgantown. The hype will say TCU is "much improved" in 2017, but I still remember the Horned Frogs losing every Big 12 road game LY. They were 0-3 overall vs. WVU in 2015-16, including a 31-point loss in Morgantown. This will be only TCU's third "true" road game of this season. Lay the points. West Virginia's two losses this year have come by a combined five points. Tuesday's loss to Texas Tech, a back and forth affair the whole way, went to overtime. The issue was they allowed the Red Raiders to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 7 of 13 from three-point range. The trademark pressure we're accustomed to seeing from the Mountaineers also failed to produce the requisite number of turnovers (13). Plus, it didn't help that they went only 13 of 24 from the FT line in a one-point loss. A return to Morgantown would seem to be "just what the doctor ordered" though. They're 8-0 SU in home games so far, winning by an incredible margin of 39.1 points per game! Don't be worried about the number either as WVU is 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons laying 12.5 or more points here on their home floor. TCU is 0-9 SU (2-7 ATS) as WVU's conference rival including the three losses (by a combined 59 pts) last season. Clearly, HC Jamie Dixon was a great hire as is evident by him getting Jaylen Fisher (highest rated signee EVER for the program!) and completely turning over the roster in less than one year's time. But you have to be concerned about such a young team going into this environment. Not only have the Horned Frogs turned the ball over a total of 31 times the L2 games, this will clearly be the most hostile environment they've stumbled into yet. They've already lost at SMU by double digits. Granted, the only other loss was to Kansas (no shame there), but it is this game that shapes up as the young team's toughest to date. 8* West Virginia | |||||||
01-06-17 | Kent State v. Ohio -7 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Ohio (9:00 ET): We have a Mid-American Conference matchup Friday night in Athens. Some may be "scratching their heads" over the fact that one team is a notable favorite over the other in a seemingly even matchup. But not I. The favorite here (Ohio) has lost only three times all season, two of those coming by four points or less. They are a dominant 8-0 SU here in Athens, winning by an average margin of 18.3 points per game. In comes a Kent team that comes off a "flashy" (pun intended!) 100-pt effort in its last game and an outright upset of Texas (on the road) before that. But let us not forget that this team also lost at Oregon State as well. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it will be a big deal to the faithful in Athens w/ the students having just returned from winter break. Lay the points. Ohio is in off a dominant performance on Tuesday as the blew out Western Michigan, 89-58 as 10-point home favorites. The Bobcats continued their sharp shooting from three-point range by going 16 of 31 from behind the arc. This was one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country LY (23rd) and they hold that same exact same rating nationally coming into tonight's contest. Defensively, they are much improved from a year ago and just held WMU to 33% shooting. For the season, they are allowing only 65.5 PPG (top 60) and are tops among MAC schools by holding opponents to just 39.6% shooting overall. Offensively, they are led by reigning MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell, but have three other double digit scorers as well. The Bobcats are 32-10 SU under third year HC Saul Phillips here at home. Kent, as I mentioned, scored 100 pts in its last game. That was due to them setting a MAC record by going 31 of 31 from the free throw line. They can't count on doing that again, especially on the road. It was free throws that took a game that was tied w/ just over 13 minutes to go and made it a comfortable win for the Golden Flashes. They lost LY here in Athens by 11, shooting only 38.6% from the floor. I would not expect shooting to improve much here as the team is last in the conference in FG% (42.3) and 11th from 3-pt range (31.9%). Kent also struggles defending the arc, letting opponents hit over 35%. For the second year in a row, I like Ohio to down their MAC East rival in Friday night home game on ESPNU. 8* Ohio | |||||||
01-06-17 | Islanders -135 v. Avalanche | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NY Islanders (9:05 ET): This is a battle of last place teams. Coming into the year, one would not have thought that. But despite sharing the dubious distinction, "one is not like the other" here. Colorado is absolutely terrible, ranking last in the league in points, goals scored and goals allowed. There can be no denying that the Avalanche are the worst team in the league right now. A last place finish was to be expected from them though. However, the Islanders have been one of the big disappointments in the league thus far. But despite having only 36 points at the present time, they've actually been a pretty mediocre club. They are 15-15-6 overall and having played the fewest games in the league (36), there's still time to play catch up. The road team comes in and takes care of business tonight. What's plagued the Isles this season is giving games away late. Consider this; they've actually held a third period lead in all but FOUR games! Given that info, clearly, you'd expect their overall record to be better. Late game failures + ranking 28th in goals allowed somewhat go hand in hand, but as mentioned earlier, they'll be facing the lowest scoring team in the league here. Thomas Greiss is expected to get the starting nod tonight and he's been the team's most reliable option between the pipes. Greiss comes in w/ a .938 save percentage on the road, which is really impressive when you think about it. The team is more than well-rested, having last played on Saturday when they crushed Winnipeg 6-2. Over the L3 seasons, the Isles are 12-6 SU when taking the ice w/ at least three days rest. While the Islanders' poor season to date can be written off as mostly "unlucky," the Avalanche are just plain awful. They have just one win in the L11 games (ironically it came at Chicago) and they've been outscored 23-10 over the course of the current five-game losing streak. A meaningless, late goal helped them avoid what would have been a shutout two nights ago in Calgary. But what really has to have you concerned if you're an Avs fan is the fact the team has given up 4.6 goals per game its last five while the Isles have averaged that same number offensively in their L5. Yes, the Isles have turned it around somewhat of late by winning four of five before the New Year and they've scored at least four goals in five straight games. They are 8th in the league in gpg and that's big time trouble for an Avs team that doesn't have a reliable option in goal right now. 8* NY Islanders | |||||||
01-06-17 | Rockets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:05 ET): While you do have to be leery about a potential letdown from a team off the kind of win the Rockets had last night over Oklahoma City, something I continue to harp on is the fact that NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back are consistently being undervalued. It's only natural for the linesmakers to shade lines accordingly, but more often that not, they are overreacting to the lack of rest. Case in point; last night's play on Charlotte over Detroit where the Hornets covered (and almost won SU). It's a little different here w/ Houston being favored, but the bottom line is that they are significantly better than Orlando and this line should be several points higher. In what was hyped as a tremendous individual battle between James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the former's team came out on top last night. Houston beat OKC 118-116, failing to cover as 8.5-pt chalk (Thunder were in the second game of a back to back, by the way), but the final was a bit misleading considering the Rockets led by 18 in the third quarter. Harden led the way w/ 26 points, fewer than Westbrook scored, but "The Beard" has the better supporting cast right now and it showed. Certainly, the Rockets' supporting cast should be able to outshine their Magic counterparts tonight. As expected, this offense has really taken off under HC Mike D'Antoni, averaging 114.6 points per game (second most) and ranking third in efficiency. Only the Warriors are ahead of them in both categories. This has also been a profitable team to bet on this year as they rank #1 in the league at the betting window w/ a 24-13 ATS record. That includes 14-5 on the road and 14-3 against teams w/ losing records. They are a perfect 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) in the second game of a back to back. Orlando, meanwhile, is off somewhat ugly 19-point home loss to Atlanta on Wednesday. They were close for basically three quarters, but they could not stop the Hawks from making baskets late. They allowed 54.3% shooting for the game and 33 fourth quarter points. Those kind of numbers are bad news when facing this kind of offense. It's especially concerning that the Magic are allowing teams to shoot 37.2% from three-point range here at home this season. The Rockets should have no problem exploiting that. On offense, the Magic simply don't score enough (97.1 PPG at home) to keep pace here. 10* Houston | |||||||
01-06-17 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 222 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
10* Over Cavs/Nets (7:35 ET): Cleveland has lost eight straight times when two of it's "Big Three" (that's LeBron, Irving and Love) don't suit up. Irving and Love were both M.I.A. in Wednesday's 106-94 home loss to the Bulls and listed as questionable for tonight. However, the assignment is far easier w/ a trip to Brooklyn to face the league-worst Nets. Even if it's only LeBron, he can lead his team to plenty of points against the league's 27th ranked team in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Cavs' defensive efficiency isn't all that great either (14th). These teams have combined to go Under in five straight meetings, but the last one - a 119-99 Cleveland win on 12.23 - saw a higher total than this and still almost went Over despite woeful 16 of 65 shooting from three-point range (less than 25 percent!) from the two sides. Take the Over. The Cavs have now failed to score 100 pts in B2B games. That had previously not happened all season. Granted, Irving and Love potentially being out again is going to have an effect, but Brooklyn is so bad defensively that it shouldn't matter too much. The Nets give up 114.2 points per game, which is comfortably the highest average in the league. The entire Cleveland team is battling some sort of illness going around (why Love is out), but help could arrive in the form of Kyle Korver, who was just acquired from the Hawks. Yes, there is a chance Korver could play here. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league, but has been at 25 percent the L2 games. Korver would change that in a hurry, especially against a Brooklyn team allowing its opponents to score so much. I also think the Nets could find offensive success in this game. The Cavs have given up at least 106 pts in five of their last six games and lack depth right now. Brooklyn has some size (Brook Lopez) and I'm not sure Cleveland will have an answer for him. I suspect that the Nets starters will perform better than they did in last night's game at Indiana, which was still a 121-109 final as scoring continues to explode in the NBA this season. But it still comes back to the Nets' defense, which has allowed 100+ pts in every game but one since the start of December. They've allowed 120+ in eight of the last 25 games. 10* Over Cavs/Nets | |||||||
01-05-17 | Wild v. Sharks -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
10* San Jose (10:35 ET): The Sharks have dropped B2B games, but they may be catching the Wild at a most opportune time. The Wild just had their 12-game win streak snapped Saturday night in Columbus and moving forward are probably likely to start "giving some back." Granted, I still - clearly - have them rated as the top team in the Western Conference (yes, even ahead of Chicago), but they had definitely been playing "out of their minds" recently. San Jose has not lost three in a row in over two months and following a tough overtime loss here at home (to the rival Kings) Tuesday, they should be eager to get back on the ice. By the way, I have the Sharks rated as the second best team in the West right now. There definitely is a lot to like about Minnesota right now. Led by Devan Dubnyk, the team is #1 in the league in save percentage (.932) and #2 in goals allowed (trailing only Columbus). Perhaps the only reason they lost Saturday is that they ran into the one team hotter than they were (Blue Jackets' win streak has now reached 16 games). But Dubnyk also hasn't been as solid of late w/ an .897 save percentage his L4 outings. This is another strong opponent that they'll be facing here (San Jose leads the Pacific) and on the road, the Wild are only a pedestrian 10-5-4 and giving up 33.8 shots per game. That latter number could prove to be trouble moving forward. San Jose, meanwhile, is only giving up 25.1 shots per game at home this year. After being swept in a home and home by the rival Kings, I expect an angry group of Sharks to be taking the ice tonight. I just can't see them dropping B2B home games. San Jose also doesn't give up many goals, in fact, they allow just 1.8 per game for the year. Martin Jones has a .932 save percentage on home ice and the team's shot per game differential at home is best in the league. Only one team is giving up fewer gpg at home and that's Minnesota. But this game is taking place at The Shark Tank and that's the difference here as the Sharks hand the Wild a second straight defeat. 10* San Jose | |||||||
01-05-17 | Hornets +4 v. Pistons | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The belief that teams will suffer in the second game of a back to back more often that not leads to them being undervalued and it certainly appears as if that's the case tonight w/ the Hornets. Granted, you do have to be a bit leery on how a team will respond off a big win like the one Charlotte had last night (at home) vs. Oklahoma City. But I see no reason why this team should be an underdog against a Detroit side that is on the verge of implosion, even out on the road. Even after factoring in home court advantage, the Pistons are clearly not the better team here and given their recent struggles (which I know all too well!), it's difficult to endorse them at all right now. Take the points. The Pistons have lost 8 of 10 overall following a 121-116 defeat at the hands of Indiana Tuesday night. That loss took place here at The Palace and saw team defense be virtually non-existent as they allowed 36 first quarter points. From there, Indiana went onto shoot 58.1% for the game including 9 of 16 from three-point range. It also didn't help that - at home - Detroit faced a -18 disadvantage in FT attempts. At this point, I have to wonder if the team is tuning out HC Stan Van Gundy. I like SVG a lot, but his act his worn thin at every stop in his career. In this 2-8 SU stretch, one of the team's wins was a fortunate spot against Cleveland (playing w/o LeBron) the day after X-Mas. Overall, the defensive numbers still look good, but they've given up 119 or more points three times in the last six games. Charlotte just scored 123 last night on a good Oklahoma City defense and is averaging over 110 PPG over their last five contests. In other words, this hardly sounds like an ideal matchup for the slumping Pistons. These teams did split a pair of games in Charlotte earlier this season. But I think what most fail to realize is how respected this Hornets team traditionally is by the marketplace. They've only been an underdog in six of their 36 games! They will be a top five team (at worst) in the East by season's end. They're definitely the better team here and if they don't win outright, it will be loss by a smaller margin than what the line is calling for. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
01-05-17 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 201.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Jazz/Raptors (7:35 ET): Toronto has primarily been an Over team this season (22-12 in all games), but tonight they are matched up w/ a team that is both second in defensive efficiency and last in pace of play. That would be Utah, who also happens to be one of just three teams in the league to both score AND allow less than 100 points per game (Detroit & Memphis are the others). Thus, there are significant factors that make the Under in play here. Furthermore, the Raptors haven't played particularly well of late, most notably in a 28-point drubbing at the hands of San Antonio two nights ago. They've lost three of four overall and this is their first game back home after a long-road trip (always tricky). Take the Under here. Right now, it's a little difficult to evaluate Utah. They're certainly better than most teams (currently ranked 6th in my own personal power rankings), but as is evident by a 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS record as an underdog, they're nowhere near ready to hang w/ the "big boys." (For the record, Toronto is one of the five teams I have above them). The Jazz had recently won four in a row, but those wins came against the Lakers, Philadelphia, Phoenix and Brooklyn, which is as weak a four-game stretch as you can have in this league. Then they went out and lost at Boston (as 5.5-pt dogs) Tuesday night. They gave up 115 points in that game, highly irregular, as for the year they're allowing only 95.1 PPG (league best!) on 43.2% shooting. These teams did just meet, in Utah, right before X-Mas. Toronto won 104-98, shooting 53.1% for the game. Again, that was an unusually poor effort on the defensive end from the Jazz. Even though they're on the road this time, I expect better for this rematch. Certainly, they're more familiar w/ the Raptors now. Kyle Lowry went for 36 points in that first meeting, on 15 of 20 shooting. He won't duplicate that here. Of course, the sense of familiarity works both ways here. Utah continues to be short-handed w/ George Hill, Dante Exum and Alec Burks all out of the lineup (Exum could play tonight). Toronto will likely be missing Patrick Patterson here as they were Tuesday in San Antonio when they scored a season-low 82 points. 10* Under Jazz/Raptors | |||||||
01-05-17 | James Madison v. Hofstra -7.5 | 62-54 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Hofstra has played an incredible amount of close games so far, in fact, six have been decided by four points or less. That includes the last two times we've seen them. Saturday at Delaware, they came out on the winning end, 58-56, thanks to a couple of made free throws in the final minute. That was not a pretty offensive game from either side, but Hofstra still led most of the way. There was a ton more offense Monday night when they hosted William & Mary and the game went into overtime. Unfortunately for the Pride, the Tribe hit a buzzer-beater in overtime (from NBA 3-pt range) to win there, 95-93. It was just the second loss in six home games for Hofstra thus far. Despite the heartbreaking loss earlier in the week, I see Hofstra responding w/ a big win tonight. As alluded to earlier, the team will not be lacking for motivation. They have lost four straight regular season meetings to James Madison, but did beat them in the 2015 CAA Tournament. Both of last year's games went into overtime. This is probably the weakest team JMU has brought to Hempstead in some time as the Dukes are just 4-11 SU, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 on the road. This will be their first road game since a double digit loss on December 17th at Appalachian State. They'll have to deal w/ a Hofstra team averaging 85.2 PPG at home this year. So far in CAA play, we've seen JMU shoot better than 55% against Drexel and hold Towson to 32% shooting. I seriously doubt that they'll be so fortunate to hit either of those percentages tonight being that this is a roadie. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra | |||||||
01-05-17 | East Tennessee State v. The Citadel +13.5 | Top | 115-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* The Citadel (7:00 ET): Let's not kid ourselves. The Citadel is not a very good basketball team. But the Bulldogs have enough going for them right now (off an outright win!) and getting enough points to make this Southern Conference matchup w/ East Tenn State more interesting than expected. Remember, I'm off a big win in the SoCon earlier in the week as UNC Greensboro upset league favorite Chattanooga. While The Citadel is more than likely to end up finishing at the bottom of the league by season's end, they've already proven they can hang by going 3-0 ATS against conference opponents thus far. That includes an upset of Wofford (as 15-point dogs), on the road, their last time out. Take the points here. East Tennessee State is considered by many to be the second best team in the SoCon. However, the Buccaneers have played only one conference foe to date and that was VMI, the weakest of the lot. Predictably, that one went quite well for them as they romped to a 102-75 victory. We can probably expect a ton of points in this game (more on that in a moment), so the question remains: can ETSU score enough to cover this large of a spread? I think not, at least out on the road. Averaging 80.6 PPG is impressive, but as you're about to see, that likely won't be nearly enough to get the job done here. This team has only one double digit scorer (TJ Cromer) and another player (Julian Walters) just left the program last week. The Citadel both averages and allows 100+ PPG. I'm not making this up. They play at - by far - the fastest tempo of any team in the country. While just 8-8 SU overall, they are 6-2 SU at home. Now the upset of Wofford did require OT, but it was a game they led by nine at halftime and by seven in the extra period. As an underdog this season, the Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS. They have double revenge from LY as well and in one of the losses to ETSU (at home!), they shot only 27.9% from the floor and scored just 51 points, easily a season-low. I'm sure the players remember that one. This year's group has made at least 10 three-pointers in 14 of 16 games and 15+ seven different times. They've had seven games w/ multiple 20+ pt scorers. ETSU is just 2-2 SU this year away from Johnson City. 10* The Citadel | |||||||
01-04-17 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Washington State | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (11:00 ET): The Pac 12 is a fairly "top-heavy" league this year w/ UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and even Cal likely to "duke it out" for the top spot. But after that, the prognosis looks rather bleak for the rest of the lot, including a USC team that has just one loss. Clearly, the two worst teams in the conference are Oregon State and Washington State, who will matchup tonight in The Palouse. While this has been an incredibly miserable season thus far for OSU, one that has seen them lose their best player (Tres Tinkle) for an indefinite period of time, I still have them rated slightly above Wazzu. Thus, even after factoring in the home court advantage, this looks like a really solid value to me. Take the points. Washington State comes in off a big upset over rival Washington, 79-74, as 12.5-pt underdogs in Seattle. That snapped a 17-game Pac 12 losing streak as they closed the game on a stunning 12-3 run after trailing almost the whole way. With a far more appealing home date looming against Oregon on Saturday (one of those aforementioned conference heavyweights), tonight's game all of a sudden shapes up to me a pretty classic 'sandwich spot.' Yes, the Cougs have triple revenge from the last two years, including a 69-49 loss in Corvallis LY in what was the teams' only meeting. But it's hard to endorse WSU as chalk seeing as the role finds them at just 1-5 ATS. That even includes a non-cover here at home against Sacramento State on 12.21. The team is on its longest win streak of the season (three games), but all three wins were by eight points or less. Meanwhile, it has not been an ideal start to Pac 12 play for Oregon State. They drew a couple of tough assignments last week, playing both USC and UCLA. Still, they covered both and actually come into tonight riding a 3-game ATS win streak. That includes an upset of a Kent State team that just went to Texas and won. As far as "true" road games go, the Beavers may be winless, but this is still quite the generous number. Note that OSU's matchup zone defense forced UCLA into its worst shooting night of the season (44.1%). The game was actually tied in the second half. Certainly then, the Beavers can keep Wazzu in check, right? 10* Oregon State | |||||||
01-04-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Nebraska-Omaha +4 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
8* Nebraska-Omaha (8:00 ET): We head to the Summit League for this play where the conference favorite (Ft. Wayne) is laying points on the road. IPFW was one of the top ATS teams in the country last year, going 21-8 at the betting window. In fact, no other team in the country that played at least seven lined games covered at a better rate! This year, predictably, has seen the oddsmakers get some of their money back. IPFW (Ft. Wayne) is just 5-5 ATS, though they do hold an outright win at Indiana. I played against them (successfully) early in the year when they went to Illinois State (as 6.5-pt underdogs) and lost 75-57. That brings me to my main point, which is that the Mastadons are only 1-4 ATS this season away from home (one win was Indiana), thus I don't like them as road chalk. That 42-22 overall ATS record the L3 seasons is due to regress. Take the points. Nebraska-Omaha happens to be leaving its (likely few) backers pretty broke. The Mavericks are returning home from an 0-3 SU/ATS road trip and last covered a game all the way back on December 3rd, at Iowa. That's an 0-6 ATS mark L6 lined games, if you're keeping score, though they did win SU three times during that span including both home games. This will only be the FIFTH home game this year for the team. Though already 0-2 in Summit League play, this will be the first conference home game. They have a bit of revenge on their minds from LY when they suffered two painful losses at the hands of IPFW, the first coming here in overtime, 106-101 as 8.5-pt chalk. The rematch was another high-scoring affair, 94-90, w/ FT shooting being the difference. Ft. Wayne has been a road favorite two times before this season and both times they failed to cover. The first was at Austin Peay and the second was at Detroit. This team's main problem when favored is they simply give up too many points. They are allowing 85.5 PPG away from home. You simply can't always outscore teams. The Mastadons found that out in the Summit League opener when they lost outright to a bad Western Illinois team 93-91 as 14.5-pt faves at home. They bounced back w/ a 102-91 win over Oral Roberts on New Year's Eve, but that's still 90 PPG allowed over the L3 contests! Back home, Omaha should shoot the ball better than they have the L2 games and an upset is likely. 8* Nebraska-Omaha | |||||||
01-04-17 | Hawks v. Magic +3.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these teams enter in off upset victories. At home, Atlanta stunned San Antonio, 114-112 as five-point underdogs. That was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their last 27 games. The upset not only required overtime after a last-second three to tie at the end of regulation, but also a season-best 32 points from Paul Milsap and a career-best tying 29 points from Tim Hardaway Jr. It will certainly be difficult to duplicate those numbers again here in Orlando. The Magic just went to New York and beat the overrated Knicks, 115-103 as 3.5-pt dogs. While the Hawks are on a three-game win streak, the Magic are also a respectable 3-2 SU their last five games. Orlando has won each of the L3 times they've played Atlanta, including a 131-120 road win last month. Take the points. The Hawks started the season out quite well, but have fallen off a cliff ever since. Now there are rumors that Milsap might be dealt, which would amount to essentially "waving the white flag" on the season. The team is still in playoff contention due to the East being so weak, but this is not a team capable of winning a 1st round playoff series. Offensive efficiency has been a problem as the team ranks only 23rd in that department. Recent performances have been better, but note that the entirety of the three-game win streak came at home. Now they're on the road where they're only 8-9 SU and averaging less than 100 PPG. Coming off a SU win as a dog this season, the team's record is just 1-4 SU and ATS. Orlando won't be going to the playoffs this year, but there are some nice young pieces. Chief among them is PG Elfrid Peyton, who had the best game of his career last month against the Hawks. There, he went for 29 points and 14 assists. He'll need to play well, not necessarily that well, for the Magic to beat the Hawks for a fourth straight time. My numbers don't like the idea of Atlanta laying more than one point in this spot, thus I'll side w/ the value as the Hawks have to prove it to me on the road. They are also just 1-6 ATS in division games so far this season. 8* Orlando | |||||||
01-04-17 | Jets v. Panthers -156 | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
8* Florida (7:05 ET): While the Jets were able to prevail last night in the Sunshine State (6-4 over Tampa Bay), I cannot envision such a prolific offensive display taking place for a second straight night. The Panthers snapped a four-game losing streak (all at home) w/ a 3-1 road win over Dallas on New Year's Eve and have been waiting in the wings to take the ice ever since. They have goaltender Roberto Luongo, who carries a .925 save percentage his L4 starts into this contest. Winnipeg may have been able to subvert its season-long issue between the pipes (team save percentage is .900) last night, but they won't be able to pull it off again here. Winnipeg is currently in a three-way tie for fourth in a Central Division where the race for third (behind Chicago and Minnesota) looks to be wide open. They are six points back of St. Louis for that coveted place (guarantees you a playoff berth), but have been outscored by 12 goals over the course of the season. As mentioned earlier, goaltending has been a real sore spot for this team as they rank 27th in the league in save percentage. Michael Hutchinson is your likely starter tonight and his save percentage in his L4 starts is just .875. The team is also 27th in goals allowed this season and 28th on the penalty kill. The Jets do a good job at getting the puck on net, but give up a ton of shots as well. Over the L3 games, they've allowed a total of 15 goals. Florida is also -12 in goal differential for the year and their style of play has been similar of late w/ a ton of shots on both sides. So why does a matchup that projects fairly evenly on paper see one team such a decided favorite on the money line? Well, there's the goaltending issue I already talked about. The Panthers are a respectable 11th in goals allowed and seventh in penalty killing. They're also well-rested and on home ice. This had been a pretty safe bet at home before losing their last four, a streak that I'm sure is not lost on the players and coaches. Playing w/ three or more days rest, the Panthers are 15-6 SU the L3 seasons. There's also a revenge angle at work here as Florida lost in Winnipeg last month, 4-3 (in a shootout), despite a 44-32 edge in shots on goal. 8* Florida | |||||||
01-03-17 | Kings v. Sharks OVER 5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
9* Over Kings/Sharks (10:05 ET): This has become the top rivalry in the Pacific Division in recent years w/ the most notable happening being the Kings rally from an 0-3 deficit in a 1st round playoff series a couple of years ago. (They would go on to win the Stanley Cup). Of course the key to that run was goaltender Jonathan Quick, but he's not around right now. He got injured in the season opener and hasn't played since. Still, the Kings have managed to stay relevant w/ 40 points, which has them in eighth in the Western Conference (would be final Wild Card). Like the rest of the Pacific, they're currently chasing San Jose, who sits atop w/ 47 points. Back on New Year's Eve, the Kings won the first game of a home and home, 3-2. I expect a higher scoring affair tonight. Take the Over. It has been a LONG time since we've seen either of these two sides play a game that had more than five total goals scored in it. For the Kings, the streak is nine consecutive games w/ the Under being 7-0-2. For the Sharks, it is six straight games, though five of those have been pushes. Saturday's matchup featured only 47 shots, just 20 of those coming from San Jose. Without Quick, the Kings continue to reign supreme in the puck possession department and are giving up just 25.9 shots per game. Perhaps taking a page out of their rival's playbook, the Sharks have been almost as good when it comes to shot suppression, allowing just 26.4 per game. These are the top two teams in terms of shots allowed and San Jose is even stingier at home, allowing only 24.5 per game. Incredibly, only TWO Sharks home games all season have managed to go Over the total! For purposes of this play, go ahead and disregard the entire previous paragraph. It's certainly worth remembering for "future reference" though. While it's rare that I look to "buck the numbers," they've simply grown so lopsided for both teams that I think an Over is in the cards. Peter Budaj has filled in admirably for Quick, but he still represents a downgrade between the pipes for the Kings. He and San Jose's Martin Jones combined to allow five goals on those 47 shots Saturday, so if we can just get an uptick on the number of times the puck is put on net, then the Over should be a "cinch!" 9* Over Kings/Sharks | |||||||
01-03-17 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (9:15 ET): I'm going to keep rolling w/ Bob Huggins' Mountaineers, who just might be the best team in the country right now. I had them on Friday when they went to Stillwater and dismantled Oklahoma State 92-75 as a short road favorite. I also took them the previous Friday as they rolled past an overmatched Northern Kentucky side, 92-61 as 26-pt chalk. For a second straight time, we find the team on the road and laying a short number against a Big 12 opponent they have dominated of late. Once again, the number is simply not high enough as Texas Tech's 11-2 SU record is nowhere close to as impressive as WVU's 12-1 SU mark. Kansas entered the year as the favorite and Baylor is still unbeaten. But the Mountaineers just might be the best team in the Big 12, if not the country. I've run through the exploits of this WVU team before, but allow me to do it again. HC Huggins can go as many as 13 deep w/ this roster. The pressure defense that he employs will continue to be among the best at forcing turnovers nationally. They forced 19 TO's at Oklahoma State and pretty much led that game by double digits throughout. Like OSU, the Mounties have had Texas Tech's number in the past, going 4-0 SU/ATS against them since joining the Big 12. It was close here in Lubbock LY, but then it was a 90-68 beatdown in Morgantown. Again, I'm not worried about this team going on the road as they've already won at Virginia, 66-57. The latest polls have WVU at #7. That's just too low. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is nowhere near as good as its record. Prior to Friday, they had lost only one time, which was by two to Auburn. But they blew a double-digit second half lead at Iowa State and ended up falling 63-56, not even covering the 4.5-point spot. That will be a difficult defeat to get over. Also difficult for the Red Raiders will be handling the Mountaineers' press. Against Iowa State, Tech turned the ball over 15 times, which is an ominous sign for tonight's matchup. Unlike WVU, Tech really didn't challenge itself during the non-conference portion of the schedule. What's their "best" win? It certainly won't be WVU after tonight. 10* West Virginia | |||||||
01-03-17 | Kings v. Nuggets UNDER 216 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Oddsmakers were a little late hanging a number for this matchup as Denver played last night at Golden State. Truth be told, I was hoping for an Over there (which happened), so that we could grab a few more value points here. To be clear, I'm talking about the total and not the side. Yes, Denver has been a big winner for Over bettors all season long. In fact, they are the top Over team in the league right now at 23-10-2. But the number for tonight's matchup w/ Sacramento strikes me as being peculiar as you'd think it would be a lot higher (last night's O/U line vs. the Dubs was 232.5). Thus, I expect the majority of bettors to again be on the Over tonight, but I'm going against the grain w/ an Under play. This will be Sacramento's first game of 2017. They ended 2016 w/ a pair of losses, both times failing to score 100 points. They actually totaled only 89 in last week's matchup with Portland, which is really bad when you consider the fact that the Blazers rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. It was then a "hard right turn" for New Year's Eve as they faced the top team in the league in defensive efficiency, that being Memphis. While the Kings actually scored more in that game, they still lost by double digits. This team ranks only 18th in the league in offensive efficiency and their pace of play has come WAY down under HC Dave Joerger to the point they rank 25th in that department. On the road this season, they're averaging only 99.0 PPG. The last seven times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. So, it's about time that an Under comes through. This will be the first meeting of 2016-17, for the record, and it comes at a time when both sides are bit banged up. Rudy Gay, Aaron Afflalo and Ty Lawson are all hurt for the Kings. Meanwhile, two of the Nuggets' big men - Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried - missed last night's game w/ the Warriors. In the second game of a back to back, look for Denver to be a bit "sluggish" tonight. Without rest, they're only 1-5 straight up this season. Sacramento games are "only" averaging 206.1 PPG this year, so the number looks high. 10* Under Kings/Nuggets | |||||||
01-03-17 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -14.5 | 58-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
8* Kentucky (9:00 ET): To me, the best team in the country is either Kentucky or West Virginia. Yes, UK has already lost twice. But those losses both came against top teams: UCLA (home) and Louisville (away). They were by a combined eight points. So what I'm saying is that there's no shame in the fact they've already tasted defeat twice. They've also beaten North Carolina at a neutral setting, remember. Coach Cal and company are also off an impressive drubbing of Ole Miss, in Oxford, last week. They won that game 99-76 as 11-point chalk and I'm envisioning a somewhat similar result tonight in Lexington. Lay the points. Texas A&M arrives in Bluegrass country off a very disappointing result as they lost at home to Tennessee their last time out. They were 9.5-point favorites in the 73-63 loss last Thursday. It was actually the second straight lined affair that the Aggies lost outright. On December 17th, on a neutral floor, they lost 67-63 to Arizona. So this is a clearly a team the oddsmakers have had overvalued. There was also an early season loss (as six-point favorites) at home to USC. Their only other loss was on a neutral floor to UCLA. No shame w/ that result, but I still feel the oddsmakers are being too kind for what will certainly be the Aggies' toughest SEC game of the year. These teams did play three tight games last year (two won by UK), but that was a better A&M team as well. Tonight actually marks the 1st time that Kentucky has gotten to play at Rupp Arena since December 7th. Credit Coach Cal for scheduling a pretty tough non-conference slate. At home so far, the Wildcats are 6-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game. Offensively, UK has few peers as they are third in efficiency and average a whopping 93.5 points per game. That's simply way too much firepower for a Texas A&M side (74.7 PPG) to compete against. The Aggies haven't been blown out yet, but this will also likely be their most difficult assignment of the season. The fact they shot less than 35% from the floor against Tennessee last Thursday does not bode well for them at all. 8* Kentucky | |||||||
01-03-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -4 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons started 2017 w/ a much needed win. It was not easy though. They trailed Miami - by eight - at halftime before storming back in the second half for a 107-98 win and cover. The fact that the Heat were short-handed on New Year's Day probably should temper any enthusiasm surrounding that victory, but considering how SVG's team ended 2016, they'll take it. With only two wins in the last nine games, the other coming against the LeBron-less Cavs the day after X-Mas, Detroit is actually in last place in the Central Division and outside the top eight in the East. But they're one of only seven teams in the Conference to have outscored opponents this season and the home court will be a big advantage tonight. Lay the points. Indiana arrives in the Motor City having won B2B games. But the wins over Chicago and Orlando both took place at home. They'd lost four in a row previously and were 1-7 ATS over an eight-game stretch. The road has been unkind to the Pacers this season as they are just 4-13 SU and ATS outside of the Hoosier State. Getting points has been of little benefit to this team as well as they're just 5-11 SU/ATS in the underdog role. They're also 4-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Coming off a double digit win this year, they're 3-6 ATS. Let me be clear here - Indiana may have a better record than Detroit, but they are not the better team! I make that last statement knowing full well that the Pacers have won the last three head to head meetings, including one right here in Detroit a little over two weeks ago. As 4.5-point dogs (rare cover in that role!), Indiana came in and won 105-90 as the Pistons had an awful shooting night (38.1 FG%). Perhaps that had something to do w/ Detroit being in the second game of a back to back (lost at Washington the previous night). Whatever the reason was there, I expect better results here. The Pistons are a staunch defensive team, giving up only 95.2 points per game at home. I've still got faith in SVG and think he'll continue to turn this thing around. 10* Detroit | |||||||
01-02-17 | Suns v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Though potentially undermanned (we know they'll be w/o Blake Griffin), I still think that the Clippers will have enough horses to get by the woeful Suns. Phoenix has actually covered B2B games, winning one of them, a surprising upset of Toronto as 8.5-pt underdogs. But that game was also at home and the Raptors were in the second night of a back to back after playing the Warriors. On the road, the Suns are just 4-15 SU and giving up a rather unsightly 114.7 points per game. They did manage to stay within the number at Utah Saturday night, which I did not like (had the Jazz), despite scoring only 86 points. The Clips will be desperate to snap a six-game slide here though and I'll lay the points. Chris Paul is listed as questionable for tonight due to his ongoing hamstring issue. DeAndre Jordan is probable despite a hip injury. Whether both, one or neither plays, this selection remains valid. I realize that the Clippers have lost to Dallas, the Lakers, Denver and New Orleans during this six-game losing streak of theirs. But this matchup certainly offers a reprieve after playing at Oklahoma City and Houston. The Rockets torched their once mighty defense for 140 points on Friday and then a night later the Thunder scored 114. But winning a shootout here is likely given the Suns' own defensive ineptitude. Phoenix has allowed only 91 pts in B2B games, the primary reason they're 2-0 ATS in those games, but note that previously they had allowed fewer than 100 points only three times ALL SEASON! The upcoming schedule should permit a Clippers' turnaround as they'll be playing all games in the state of California the next three weeks. Remember, there was a time when the Clips were playing better than every other team in the league. Given the potential personnel differences, it's likely worthless to cite LA's 116-98 win over Phoenix early in the season here at Staples Center. But they have won the last five home games against the Suns. HC Doc Rivers should be able to create a sense of urgency here and whomever he has in the lineup, should respond in kind. The Suns are just not a very good team. 8* LA Clippers | |||||||
01-02-17 | Avalanche v. Canucks -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
8* Vancouver (10:05 ET): This is a real dog matchup on the Monday card with two of the worst teams in the league facing off in British Columbia. As for who is worse though, there is no debate. Colorado is clearly the worst team in this league at this point as they are dead last in goals scored and dead last in goals allowed. That's an ugly combination that's resulted in them being outscored by nearly 50 goals in 36 games. By the way, they rank 29th (out of 30) on the power play. The "strength" of the team appears to be the penalty killing unit, which is a "lofty" 25th! The Avs have dropped eight of nine (lone win at Chicago!) and they've allowed six goals in three of their last four defeats! So, yeah, this club is terrible. Coming into the year, Vancouver was projected for the bottom of the league, so their lack of success is by no means a surprise. But recently they've played better w/ three consecutive wins coming into tonight. All were one goal victories against higher ranked teams in their own division (Pacific): Los Angeles, Anaheim and Edmonton. Going on the road and beating the Oilers Saturday was fairly impressive considering they were +195 on the money line. Believe it or not, but the Canucks are actually just a few games within .500 now and only three points back of the coveted eight spot in the Western Conference. That's definitely better than was expected. This play boils down to the simple fact that the Avalanche are simply a 'must fade' at every turn right now. Other than Arizona, there isn't a single team they project to even be competitive against. I'd still like to see more shots per game from the Vancouver side, but at least they registered 32 in the shootout win over the Oilers. They'll benefit here from the fact that Avs rank 29th in the league in save percentage, one of just three teams below .900. Missing #1 netminder Semyon Varlamov has really hurt them. The Canucks have already beaten the Avs once this year, in Denver, and did so despite a slight shot disadvantage 35-31. Canucks goalie Ryan Miller has stopped 60 of 63 shots in his L2 starts. 8* Vancouver | |||||||
01-02-17 | Chattanooga v. NC-Greensboro +5.5 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
8* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): We go to the Southern Conference (5th oldest in the country!) for tonight's College Hoops play and we find a home dog with plenty of value. Yes, Chattanooga is the favorite to once again win this league and is rated among the top 100 nationally. But the Mocs will encounter a worthy challenger tonight in Greensboro. Making matters for difficult for the favorite is that it's their second road game in three days. UNC Greensboro will certainly not be lacking for motivation here as they are looking to bounce back from a surprise loss (here at home) to Samford on Saturday. Like Chattanooga, two of the Spartans losses came against major conference teams. They've lost only four times overall and I love the spot. Take the points. Chattanooga's season got off to an impressive start as they went to Tennessee and won 82-69 as 3.5 point dogs. Then came a 40-point loss at North Carolina. But since then, the Mocs have gone 10-2 w/ both losses coming by six points or less. One of those losses was at Vanderbilt (by two). They've covered all but one of their last six games and are off B2B double digit wins, including 64-48 at Western Carolina in the SoCon opener. So why the fade here? Well, for starters, UNC Greensboro isn't likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Western Carolina did Saturday. The Catamounts were an awful 34 percent overall from the floor, including 2 of 10 from three-point range. UNC Greensboro has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, but they had lost three in row straight up to Chattanooga before pulling a big upset LY as 12.5-pt road dogs. Their impressive 79-64 win last February marked the third consecutive time the road team has won in this rivalry. It was one of just THREE SoCon losses for the Mocs last year. Chattanooga has won it's last two visits to Greensboro Coliseum, but this is a much better Spartans team now. Yes, UNCG has failed to cover three in row, including a pair of double digit losses. But prior to that, their only two losses had both been by six points or less. I'm impressed w/ the team's defense (just 63.4 PPG allowed at home) and they should shoot a lot better here than they did in the loss to Samford (37.9%), which was a surprisingly poor performance (looking ahead?). They'll bounce back here. 8* UNC Greensboro | |||||||
01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
8* Penn State (5:00 ET): I understand there is some leeriness regarding this Penn State team. Certainly, the Big 10's rep took a bit of a hit w/ Ohio State's ugly showing against Clemson in the CFP Semifinals. But, getting points, I believe the Nittany Lions to be a strong play in this year's Rose Bowl. Down the stretch, this was a covering machine w/ eight ATS wins in their final eight games. Yes, USC was just as hot w/ their own eight-game win streak that included six straight covers. Like Penn State, the Trojans beat a team that made the CFP (Washington, Ohio St). Despite what you've heard about Southern Cal and the slight "home field" edge that the Pac 12 traditionally enjoys at the Rose Bowl, this line should be closer to a Pick 'em, rather than a touchdown. Take the points. The only game USC failed to cover during it's eight-game win streak was against Colorado and that was a game they kneeled out the clock (inside the 5-yd line) rather than score. They even outgained the Buffaloes 539-371. Every win since has been by double digits w/ the closest margin being 13 points (over Washington). But, if we're going to criticize the Big 10, should we not do the same to the Pac 12? Washington, like Ohio State, was humbled in the CFP semis (something I know all too well!). Also, Colorado got laid to waste in the Alamo Bowl by Oklahoma State. Washington State lost outright to Minnesota. The Pac 12 has just two bowl wins so far and they've been by a combined three points in games where they were favored. So, what I'm saying is that maybe USC's win streak isn't as impressive as it seems. USC's season clearly turned w/ the QB change to Sam Darnold. But he's just a freshman. I say Penn State's Trace McSorley is the more talented signal-caller in this game as led all Big 10 QB's w/ 3,360 yards passing and was #1 in the nation at 16.3 yards per completion. When he's not throwing the ball downfield, McSorley can always hand the ball off to RB Saquon Barkley, the Big 10's Offensive Player of the Year. I really like the fact that the Nittany Lions have outscored opponents by 193 points in the second half of games alone. Their only two losses were to Pitt (beat Clemson) by three and Michigan (when their LB corps was decimated by injury). This will NOT be a repeat of the 2003 Orange Bowl where a red hot USC team blew out an undeserving Iowa team. Penn State will be just as motivated by its exclusion from the playoff, which it likely belonged in. 8* Penn State | |||||||
01-02-17 | Iowa +3 v. Florida | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Iowa (1:00 ET): I'm not sure there should be a side more motivated to win its bowl game than Iowa. Sure, the Hawkeyes are coming off their fourth straight winning season and have been successful, generally speaking, throughout Kirk Ferentz' 18-year tenure here in Iowa City. But postseason games have not gone Ferentz's way of late as the last four have all resulted in losses. The last two were particularly humiliating as they were "doubled up" (outscored 90-44) by Tennessee and Stanford. But unlike those years, they're not being "overslotted" into a bowl spot they're unworthy of. No, here they draw a Florida team that they'll matchup w/ quite well and I like the Hawkeyes to break the bowl losing streak. Take the points. The Hawkeyes certainly ended the regular season well w/ three straight wins and covers. That stretch began w/ a huge upset of then-unbeaten Michigan (were 3 TD underdogs and I had them), 14-13. It culminated w/ a 40-10 beatdown of Nebraska in the reg season finale. Defensively, this team provides us w/ plenty of confidence as they allow an average of just 17.9 points per game. Over the L3 games, they allowed just 23 points total. In seven of their 12 games this year, they allowed 17 pts or fewer. Those numbers are particularly inspiring when priced as the dog. The underdog role hasn't necessarily treated Iowa all that well the L3 seasons (just 5-5 ATS), but they are 6-3 ATS in games where the line is three points or less, either way. Yes, Florida is also looking to wipe away the memory of last year's bowl experience, a horrible 41-7 loss to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. But that was just one loss while Iowa is gunning to stop a four-game bowl skid. And, yes, this game might be taking place in the state of Florida. But so too did LY's debacle vs. the Wolverines. So that won't help the Gators. Nor will QB Austin Appleby, who was picked off three times in the SEC Championship Game and threw only 8 TD passes all year. While Iowa closed strong, Florida did not. The Gators got blown out in their final two games, first by Florida State, then by Alabama. The combined final scores there were 85-29. Florida's most impressive win was the rescheduled game vs. LSU, but that was a lucky win, more of a byproduct of bad Tigers' playcalling inside the 10-yd line. In what promises to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the points only seems natural. 10* Iowa | |||||||
01-02-17 | Western Michigan +9.5 v. Wisconsin | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Western Michigan (1:00 ET): The MAC is notoriously bad in bowl games and 2016 was no different. It was a big "0-fer" in December w/ the conference losing all five opportunities. However, with the exception of Central Michigan's awful showing against Tulsa in the Miami Beach Bowl (55-10 loss), all the other games were close. In fact, Toledo, Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Miami OH all lost by five points or less, two of them covering. Those four losses came by a combined 13 points. So this is a storyline that will likely be overplayed in the analysis leading up to the Cotton Bowl. Furthermore, it's grossly unfair to lump Western Michigan in w/ the rest of the conference. The 13-0 Broncos are likely the best team EVER to come out of the MAC and because of HC PJ Fleck, you know they'll be supremely motivated Monday afternoon. So take the points. While motivation couldn't be higher for Western Michigan, I'm not sure that will be the case for the Wisconsin side. In the past, we've seen the Power 5 team matched up w/ a "Group of Five" team in the "New Year's Day Bowl Game" play pretty uninspired ball. In fact, since the new playoff system was instituted two years ago, we've seen upsets both times. In the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, Boise State beat Arizona 38-30. Last year, in the Peach Bowl, Houston took care of Florida State 38-24. So the precedent is set for the Badgers to lay an egg here. Especially considering the disappointing ending to their regular season, which saw them blow a 28-7 lead in the Big 10 Championship Game. Yes, their only three losses came to Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But their best win - against overrated LSU - was by just two points. When I call Western Michigan "(possibly) the best MAC team in history," it's not hyperbole. In nine conference games, the Broncos outscored foes by a whopping 221 points. The MAC Title Game vs. Ohio was a bit closer than you'd like to see, but still they put up 29 pts on a very good defense. This sets up as a bit of a defensive affair as well, but I still give WMU the edge on the offensive side of the ball w/ the combo of QB Zach Terrell and WR Corey Davis. Plus, the Wisconsin defense was certainly susceptible to the "big play" against Penn State, an offense that is no more dynamic than Western Michigan's. While 4-0 ATS as a dog this year, Wisconsin was just 3-3 ATS when laying more than a touchdown. WMU is on an 11-3 ATS run as a dog the L3 seasons and has already beaten two "lesser" Big 10 teams - Northwestern and Illinois - this season, both on the road! 8* Western Michigan | |||||||
01-01-17 | Arizona State v. California -9 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
8* California (10:00 ET): For Arizona State, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot that all Pac 12 teams will face at one time or another during the course of the conference schedule. Considering the Sun Devils just pulled off an upset at Palo Alto, beating Stanford 98-93 as 6.5-pt dogs on Friday, a letdown is all but inevitable tonight in Berkeley. Conversely for Cal, this is a chance to atone for an outright loss to Arizona (were 2.5-pt favorites) on Friday (also a five-point game). The Bears have actually now lost two in a row at home, but considering who the losses were to (Virginia & Arizona) and the fact they were close, I am unconcerned. Prior to the B2B losses, Cal had won 27 in a row at Haas Pavilion. I'll lay the points w/ them here. Though Cal has a poor ATS record overall this season (4-9), I'm proud to say that I was on them in two of the wins and covers. The first was an 86-61 rout of Cal Davis. The second came a week later and also a lopsided result, 81-55 over Cal Poly. There is no shame in losing to Virginia and Arizona, two of the best teams in the country, by a combined nine points even at home. They played both tough. Against Virginia, it was a tie game (22-22) at the break and they never trailed by more than five in the second half. As most opponents do, the Bears struggled to shoot the ball against the Cavaliers. The Arizona loss was more disappointing as they led by 13 at one point before wilting late. Again, poor shooting was the culprit. But after shooting 36% from the floor in B2B games, I look for the offense to bounce back here against an ASU team that is giving up 82.5 PPG on 46.7% shooting. The Sun Devils are just 3-11 ATS when off a conference win the last two seasons, so there's a history of failing in this situation. In the case of their 98-93 win at Stanford on Friday, they got a career-high 30 points from Torian Graham and a season-high 25 points from Tra Holder. That won't be duplicated here, nor will the massive shooting discrepancy they held over the Cardinal from behind the three-point line (54% to 33%). I've gone over the talent on this Cal roster previously and I like this team quite a bit. I have them rated 4th in the Pac 12 (behind UCLA, Arizona and Oregon) while ASU is third worst. The Bears are the top defensive team in the league (only 59.9 PPG allowed) and have Ivan Raab, who is coming off yet ANOTHER double-double (16 pts, 16 rebounds). 8* California | |||||||
01-01-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 6 m | Show | |
8* San Diego (4:25 ET): Kansas City needs to win this game and have Oakland (who is now w/o starting QB Derek Carr) lose at Denver and then they become AFC West Champs + get the 1st round playoff bye. Truth be told, that scenario unfolding is not difficult to envision. Predictably, the Chiefs are drawing a lot of public support in this spot, but I'm using this chance to stump one final time for the Chargers and complain about what has been one of the more unfortunate NFL seasons in recent memory. One could make the case that the respective paths for these teams was established back in Week 1 when KC erased a 27-6 fourth quarter deficit and beat the Bolts in overtime. Still, I think this line is just too high. Take the points. San Diego enters the final week at 5-10 SU, but they have played much better than that record indicates. Yes, as far as season win totals are concerned, they were top Over bet at 7.0. Last week's embarrassing loss to previously winless Cleveland ensured that would be a losing proposition. But it was also all too emblematic of how this season has gone. Kicker Josh Lambo, who was previously 23 of 24 on field goal attempts inside the 50-yd line, missed TWO in the final minutes w/ a chance to tie the Browns. That loss dropped the Chargers to a hideous 1-8 SU in one-score games. This after going 3-8 SU in such contests last year! They have blown big leads (see KC Wk 1), missed clutch FG's (see last week), turned the ball over at inopportune times (vs. NO & MIA) and generally invented other ways to lose. Consider that they have led in every game this season but ONE! They've been outscored by all of THREE points for the season! There are reasons to play against the Chiefs here as well. For a second straight week, they could be w/o top pass rusher Justin Houston. Keep in mind they're already w/o LB Derrick Johnson. One of the keys to Kansas City's success the L2 seasons has been turnover differential as they are a league best +29. Interestingly though, San Diego has nearly the same number of takeaways this year. There's a chance RB Melvin Gordon could return for the 'Bolts here. I understand KC's circumstance and SD's record, but this is still too many points for the Chiefs to be laying on the divisional road. 8* San Diego | |||||||
01-01-17 | Red Wings v. Maple Leafs -151 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Toronto (3:05 ET): It's an "Original Six" matchup on New Year's Day (outdoors!) w/ the Maple Leafs hosting the Red Wings. Sadly, for both, there's now 30 teams in the league and neither would be among the top eight in the East. That means no playoffs, but fortunately there's a long way to go and in the case of Toronto there are signs of a potential late season surge. They have a positive goal differential over the course of the year, typically a strong indicator of future results. While it's only +4, the team has won four straight and is doing a heck of a lot better than Detroit right now. The once proud Red Wings are in danger in seeing their historic playoff streak snapped as they are ahead of only Buffalo in the Atlantic. I'll be on the "home team" in this one. This game will be played at BMO Field (home of the CFL's Argonauts). While past outdoor games have shown to minimize "home ice" advantage, Toronto enters w/ confidence here having won four straight - all on the road. They've totaled 16 goals during the win streak and now rank 6th in the league in goals per game (2.9). This is a team that puts plenty of shots on goal as in 34.0 per game, which ranks second in the league (only trailing Pittsburgh). For years, the issue here was LIMITING shots and while it still persists, at least they can now lean on Frederik Andersen between the pipes. He has a .925 save percentage for the year and has been even hotter of late at .959 his L4 starts! What's interesting about the Red Wings is that they are 7-10-3 at home, but 9-6-1 on the road. Yet, that road record is a bit deceiving. They're actually being outscored (by about 0.5 goals per game) away from the Motor City. They did win at Ottawa on Thursday, but that game went to overtime. The power play here is the worst in the league (12 percent) and overall the team is 26th in goals per game. Goaltending has been a major sore spot all year as the collective save percentage of Red Wings' goaltenders is just .907. Jared Coreau has come on strong late for them, but it's still a limited sample size w/ him (only three starts). This is the first meeting of this season between these two and also the first time in forever that you can say the Leafs are clearly the better side. 8* Toronto | |||||||
01-01-17 | Panthers v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Panthers/Bucs (1:00 ET): It's all division games in Wk 17 of NFL and thus in every instance we'll have a previous matchup to include in our handicapping. In the case of Carolina-Tampa Bay, a meeting all the way back in Week 5 set the tone for the respective seasons. In what was considered a shocking upset at the time, the Bucs beat the Panthers 17-14 as six-point underdogs on a last second Roberto Aguayo field goal. Since that time Tampa Bay has gone 7-4 SU overall, getting itself onto the very fringes of playoff contention. Meanwhile, it's been "that kind of year" for the defending NFC Champs, who are 6-9 SU and will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Note that Carolina played w/o Cam Newton in that earlier season matchup, which was a Monday night affair. I was on the Under, a really easy winner obviously, and will go back to "the well" despite Newton's presence for the rematch. Most of the focus concerning the Panthers' 2016 decline has been on the defensive side of the ball, the secondary (which lost Josh Norman) in particular. But Newton and the offense really haven't held up their end of the bargain either. Of course, there were plenty of "smoke and mirrors" involved with this group last season when they led the league in scoring, but were actually outside the Top 10 in yards per game. The Over was 12-6-1 LY for Carolina (including playoffs), but this year the team's scoring has declined by more than a touchdown. Tampa Bay still has a very outside shot at making the playoffs, but an incredible confluence of events would need to take place later in the day for that goal to be achieved. Still, I expect the rapidly improving defense to perform well in a game they'll obviously want to win. Prior to LW, five straight Bucs games had stayed Under the total. They are off road games against Dallas and New Orleans (lost both), but those are two of the top offense in the league. This will be an easier assignment and thus we should see something along the lines of the five-game stretch when they allowed an average of less than 13 PPG. Factor out the two indoor games vs. New Orleans and Atlanta and Carolina has seen only four Overs all season. 10* Under Panthers/Bucs | |||||||
01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Under Cowboys/Eagles (1:00 ET): Dallas turned in a remarkably efficient offensive performance last week, scoring 42 points on one of the top defenses in the league (Detroit). But we know that we won't be seeing their full compliment of skill position players on the field for Week 17 as America's Team has nothing to play for here w/ the #1 seed in the NFC all wrapped up. Most notably, there will be a change at the QB position w/ Dak Prescott giving way to Mark Sanchez and, yes, Tony Romo. While there is no official word on how long some of the key players will play, if they play at all, I expect the most vanilla of gameplans for the Cowboys in the regular season finale. There is just no incentive for them to try. Take the Under. The Eagles might be out of contention, but I actually view them as one of the top non-playoff teams. They were my top play for Week 16 when they hosted the Giants last Thursday and delivered in kind w/ a 24-19 "upset." (Though they actually closed as the favorite). The key to that correct call and this one as well is that Philly has a very good defense. At home, they're giving up an average of only 15.9 points per game. However, the offense has its issues. QB Carson Wentz may have hit the proverbial "rookie wall" some time ago as he has an ugly 5-11 TD-INT ratio the L8 games. The team's top two running backs (Ryan Matthews, Darren Sproles) are both out here. Remember that LW, the team needed a defensive score just to get to 24 points as the offense gained less than 300 total yards. In terms of yards per play, this offense ranks fifth worst in the league. The Eagles' 29-23 loss at Dallas in Week 8 is what started their swoon. While that game was high scoring, note it went to overtime after Philly blew a 10-point fourth quarter lead. That being said, it was another game that they gained fewer than 300 total yards. The Cowboys had nearly 500, but sources are now saying Ezekiel Elliot will be limited to only a handful of snaps here and that's key because he accounted for almost 150 of those yards in that first meeting. Also, the Dallas' D is quietly allowing only 18.6 PPG this year and 81.5 rush yds per game, which is tops in the league! The Under is 5-2 for them this season in road games. 10* Under Cowboys/Eagles | |||||||
12-31-16 | Suns v. Jazz -11 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): It's taken visits from the Lakers and Philadelphia, but the Jazz seem to be back on track. Of course, it also helps that this favorable scheduling stretch has coincided with the team getting healthier. Clearly, the schedule makers intended on the Jazz ending their 2016 on a positive note because tonight brings a visit from another lowly opponent, Phoenix. What I really like about this play is that the Suns are actually off a SU win, a real shocker no less, as they upset Toronto (as 8.5-pt home dogs) on Thursday. That puts them in a less than favorable spot as they're 1-7 ATS this season when off an outright win as a dog. Lay the points. It was a favorable spot when Phoenix hosted Toronto Thursday. That's because the Raptors were in the second game of a back to back and had just played the Warriors tough the previous night. It marked just the fourth time all season that the Suns held an opponent below 100 points. But don't let one upset fool you; the Suns are not a good team. That was just their fourth win in December and two of the other three came at the expense of Philly and the Lakers (sound familiar?). The other win came by two, at home, against the overrated Knicks. On the road this year, the team is 4-14 SU while giving up a hiedous 116.1 points per game. They have just one road win since Thanksgiving! Defensively, these teams are miles apart. While Phoenix is giving up the most points per game, Utah is at the opposite end of the spectrum. They allow the fewest number of points per game in the league at 95.0! As mentioned earlier, they are (finally) starting to get healthy as PG George Hill is back. These teams met earlier this month and Utah led the entire way. The final score of 112-105 is a bit misleading at Utah led by as many as 23 before letting Phoenix come back. I can't see the Suns being too "defensive-minded" here on New Year's Eve, thus this has all the makings of a blowout. 8* Utah | |||||||
12-31-16 | Ohio State -3 v. Clemson | 0-31 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): All the talk on television from the pundits seems to center around "how can Ohio State be favored here?" That line of thinking essentially matches up w/ the betting public, which is throwing its support behind the underdog by a fairly significant margin. This is also "all fine by me" as I'll gladly lay the short number w/ the best team from what was the best conference in the country this season. Yes, I'm well aware that Clemson HC Dabo Swinney is 5-0 ATS as a dog in bowl games, including an upset over the Urban Meyer-led Buckeyes back in the 2013 Orange Bowl. But I'll still take Meyer, who hasn't lost a bowl game since, any day of the week and possibly twice on Saturdays. This is a much different situation for Clemson compared to LY's CFP Semifinal Matchup w/ Oklahoma when most of the experts were betting AGAINST them. Most people would probably make the case that over the L2 seasons, Clemson has been the second best team in the country, behind only Alabama of course. But the Tigers have certainly "lived dangerously" for a good deal of this two-year span w/ 10 wins by one score. Six of those came this season and it finally caught up w/ them in their lone loss, 43-42 at Pitt, which came as 21.5-pt home favorites. That's a far worse loss than Ohio State's lone defeat in 2016, which came on a fluke field goal block return for TD. That game, at Top 10 Penn State in the snow, saw the Buckeyes outgain the Nittany Lions 412-276. They also never trailed until the fateful GW play. By the way, Ohio State has also only lost twice over the L2 years and both were in games that involved "the elements" (i.e. Mother Nature. There will be no such elements present Saturday night in the Fiesta Bowl, a venue that the Ohio State program has found a lot of success in through the years. I make the case that this has been the second best team in the country over the L2 seasons. I think were it not for OSU's offensive struggles for 3+ quarters against Michigan, they'd be drawing far greater support. But it should be noted they turned it on late and ended up outgaining the Wolverines. That Michigan defense is also far better than the one they'll face here. Turnovers could be a big issue here as they plagued Clemson in the loss to Pitt as well as close calls vs. NC State and Louisville. Ohio State happens to be Top 10 in the country in forcing turnovers. Unlike seemingly everybody else, I did not expect Clemson to get back to this point. Meyer is one of the best bowl coaches in the history of College Football and I think his team benefits from having played one less game. 8* Ohio State | |||||||
12-31-16 | Canadiens v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Canadiens/Penguins (7:05 ET): This has "potential playoff preview" written all over it as two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference face off Saturday night. Montreal leads the Atlantic w/ 49 points in what has been a predictable bounce back campaign for them thanks to the return of a healthy Carey Price between the pipes. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is second in the much tougher Metropolitan w/ 53 points. The fact they are only one point back of scorching hot Columbus (who has won 14 straight) speaks to how well the Pens have played thus far. This is a really even matchup on paper, thus I'll stay away from side. But the total offers some value as the goaltenders should rule the day. Take the Under. As I said earlier, Price has been the catalyst for the Habs' turnaround this year. He is top five in both goals against average (1.99) and save percentage (.931). Overall, Montreal is 5th in goals allowed at 2.3 per game. They are off a 3-2 win over Florida that went to a shootout. That was actually w/ backup Al Montoya in goal, but clearly Price is an upgrade even if his L2 starts have been somewhat shaky. Again, it was Montoya that shut out the Penguins (36 saves!) back in October. Another key here is that over the L5 games, the Canadiens are giving up an average of just 25.4 shots. Pittsburgh's top goaltender Matt Murray is now out for an indefinite period of time due to the dreaded "lower body" injury. But while that would be a concern for most teams, it's not for Pittsburgh as they can still turn to Marc-Andre Fleury, who has a .944 save percentage his L4 appearances. Fleury came off the bench Wednesday and stopped all 19 shots he saw in a come from behind win over Carolina. The Pens have been a huge Over team all year (23-10-4!), due in large part to their second place ranking in goals per game. But goals won't come easy here against Price. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have stayed Under the total. The Under is also 5-2 in Montreal road games when the total is 5.5. 10* Under Canadiens/Penguins | |||||||
12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (4:30 ET): While it's been a really good start to the season for "The U," success has not translated to the betting window. The 'Canes are just 2-8 ATS despite being 10-2 straight up. Their last seven lined contests have all resulted in ATS failures, but that comes w/ a caveat as they've been asked to lay 14 or more points in each of the last five. Note that a good portion of those ATS results came down to the wire with three decided by three points or less. So it's not as if they're falling well short of the oddsmakers' expectations. This is still a very good team and for the ACC opener, I do believe they're being undervalued. They'll host a NC State team that has played only one "true" road game to date and that resulted in a double digit loss at Illinois. Eight of Miami's 10 wins this year have come by double digits. None have been by fewer than eight points. The two losses came at neutral settings against good teams (Iowa State and Florida), both of whom are worthy of the Top 20 in my estimation. NC State is outside the Top 50. The Hurricanes remain on the fringes of the top 25 ("others receiving votes") and have an average margin of victory 21.1 PPG here in Coral Gables. That's after only beating Columbia by 11 on Wednesday (as 23-pt favorites), which stands as one of their biggest misses from the oddsmakers' call. Turnovers (20) were the primary issue there, but they'll come down that from season-high number of miscues here. It should also be noted Columbia was coming off nearly three full weeks of rest. NC State didn't challenge itself much during the non-conference portion of the schedule, save for a loss to Creighton where they got blown out. Their last six games all took place in Raleigh against non Power 5 foes. Unlike Miami, the Wolfpack have experienced success at the betting window as they are 4-0 ATS here in December. But Tennessee State, Appalachian State, Fairfield and Rider are hardly an impressive slate of opponents. None of NC State's last five opponents have shot better than 38% from the floor, which I credit more to inferior opposition than the Wolfpack's defense. This team has three wins by four points or less so far, all against pretty weak competition (Ga Southern, Loyola-IL and Bradley). Lay the points. 10* Miami FL | |||||||
12-31-16 | Washington +15 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 352 h 26 m | Show |
10* Washington (3:00 ET): Top-ranked Alabama comes in as a decided favorite over the rest of the CFP field. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide would not only be favored by more than a touchdown over either potential Championship Game opponent, they are already less than even money to win the whole thing. But this spread is far too high. It must be pointed out that the SEC had a really down year. That means 'Bama did not face the usual gauntlet we're accustomed to seeing. Furthermore, I'd like to go on the record and say quarterback play in the SEC was downright abhorrent this year. Jake Browning and Washington will easily be the best QB and team that 'Bama has seen in 2016. I can't see any justification for this being a double digit line other than the public perception that the Tide will roll. But I anticipate this first semifinal being much closer than anticipated. Take the points. Unlike Alabama, Washington did suffer a loss during the regular season. It was at home to USC on November 12th. But since then, the Huskies have rolled to three consecutive victories by 26 points or more, two of them coming against a pair of Top 15 opponents - Washington State and Colorado. This will now be the first time all year that they are getting points. The only criticism the Huskies have taken regarding their inclusion in the final four is they played a very weak non-conference schedule. But the Pac 12 is also the only league that plays nine conference games. Thus, I believe they are more than battle-tested. We have seen their head coach (Chris Petersen) deliver in these kinds of spots before. Boise State over Oklahoma, anyone? In terms of efficiency, Washington matches up well w/ Alabama. Yes, the Crimson Tide are the best defensive team in the country, but the Huskies rank a solid fifth in defensive efficiency. However, it's the Washington offense that will keep them in this one. On that side of the ball, the Huskies are #2 in the country. Bama is just 23rd. Again, Browning will be - easily - the best QB Bama will have seen to this point. With the Tide offense, let's not discount the impact OC Lane Kiffin's impending departure may have. Factoring in all three phases of the game, these have been the two most efficient teams in the country. I'd also like to comment on turnover differential. Bama has scored an inordinate number of defensive TD's this year. But Washington has forced the most TO's (33) and has the best margin (+21) in the country. Therefore, how can you not take the points? 10* Washington | |||||||
12-30-16 | Flyers v. Sharks -170 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
9* San Jose (10:05 ET): If you've been following my NHL selections on any kind of consistent basis, then you know I've been pretty adamant about how top-heavy the Metropolitan Division is. Four of my top six teams in the league reside in the Metro. But what's interesting is that there are actually five teams in the race. So, who's the odd one out? That would be Philadelphia, who despite 44 points, has actually been outscored over the course of the year. A 10-game win streak is what's responsible for the Flyers' current positioning. Take that win streak away and they're a sub-.500 team. Clearly, I feel that they are overrated and that 10-game win streak is no longer as impressive when you consider what both Columbus and Minnesota are currently doing. Tonight, the Flyers will hit the West Coast to play a San Jose team that is a division leader. Granted, the Pacific is not the Metro, but the Sharks still have one more point than the Flyers and a better YTD goal differential. San Jose is a top 10 team in the league and top three in the Western Conference. In a neutral setting you'd favor the Sharks here, but them being on home ice makes the advantage even more pronounced. Your Pacific Division leaders are 12-4 at "The Tank" this year and holding opponents below 2.0 goals per game. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has a losing road record due to the fact they give up 3.4 gpg. Shot suppression is so key to winning in this league and the Sharks do an excellent job in this department. They allow only 26.5 shots per game, second best in the league. Only the rival Kings, perennially the league leaders, are better. At home, San Jose allows only 24.7 shots per game. Those numbers certainly make life easier on their goaltenders and Martin Jones (who has gotten the bulk of the starts this year) comes in w/ a .930 save percentage here at home. Meanwhile, the Flyers are one of only three teams in the league w/ a collective save percentage below .900. They've allowed 10 goals in B2B losses to New Jersey and St. Louis to start this trip. Steve Mason likely is the one between the pipes tonight and his .887 save percentage on the road does not inspire any confidence in what I feel is the most overrated team in the league. 9* San Jose | |||||||
12-30-16 | Pistons +3.5 v. Hawks | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I have long been a fan of HC Stan Van Gundy, but it appears as if his act may be rapidly wearing thin in the Motor City where the Pistons have not been playing well of late - at all. SVG's team has just one win in its last seven games and it came against Cleveland w/o LeBron. I was on Detroit there, but also then faded them on Wednesday when they were humiliated at home, losing 119-94 to Milwaukee as 3.5-point chalk. The Pistons' only other cover over the L7 games - besides Cleveland - was against Golden State, another fortunate spot as the Warriors were playing the second of B2B road games and in a massive lookahead to the X-Mas Day game against the Cavaliers. Is there any hope for the Pistons right now? Yes, I think there is. Read on. As poorly as Detroit has played of late (five of last six losses by double digits), tonight's opponent (Atlanta) has been just as bad. The Hawks did win Wednesday night - in OT - but failed to cover at home against the Knicks. It was just their seventh win in the L20 games and they're 6-14 ATS during that stretch as well. This team has fallen off dramatically since a relatively hot start to the season. What's the issue been? Well, they've fallen down to 24th in offensive efficiency. They've also allowed 105 PPG on 46.5% shooting the L5 games. These teams have already matched up once this season, here in Atlanta, and it was all Pistons in a 121-85 win as 1.5-pt dogs. Not sure Detroit should be a larger underdog this go around, especially considering the road team has won four of the last five head to head meetings outright. Looking at the respective lineups, there are some interesting takeaways. Atlanta basically used only six players in the OT win over the Knicks w/ four logging 40+ minutes. Outside of the top six in the rotation, HC Mike Budenholzer got only 12 pts from the rest of the team and Tim Hardaway Jr was particularly brutal, going 0 for 7 from the field. Meanwhile, SVG has been tinkering w/ his lineup and the move to bring Tobias Harris off the bench certainly seems to be working. Another reason I like the Pistons to bounce back here is the fact they are 25-10 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8* Detroit | |||||||
12-30-16 | La Salle v. Dayton -9 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
10* Dayton (6:00 ET): This is the Atlantic 10 opener for both Dayton and LaSalle, the former coming in as the favorite to bag the regular season conference crown. The Flyers finished in a three-way tie atop the A-10 standings last year, along w/ St. Bonaventure and VCU. They are by no means a decided favorite to win the league in 2017, but they certainly are a "cut above" this evening's opponent, LaSalle. The Explorers finished in the A-10 basement last season at 4-14 SU in conference play and 9-22 SU overall. They already have six wins this year and played #1 Villanova relatively tough at a neutral setting. But that was still a double digit loss and this will be too. Dayton won't take this game lightly as they actually lost at LaSalle (as 11.5-pt favorites) last season. Lay the points. Considering Dayton was a 20-pt favorite when they hosted LaSalle last year, this seems like a really good value. The Explorers have lost 13 of their 14 all-time visits here. There was a bit of a concern over whether or not Flyers' leading scorer Charles Cooke (19.2 PPG) would play here due to a wrist injury, but HC Archie Miller has said "he's a go." He missed last week's game vs. VMI, but it hardly mattered as seven Flyers' scored in double figures en route to an easy 92-56 win. This team is shooting the ball preposterously well so far and against VMI they were better than 60% from the floor, including 55.6% from three-point range. Defensively, they are significantly stronger than LaSalle, which will ultimately be the difference here. It's not just that Dayton is better than LaSalle defensively, it's that the Explorers are pretty awful defensively. Actually, that's putting it mildly: they are one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country. Currently, they are allowing 83.2 points per game, which is 338th out of 351 teams. They are 349th when it comes to defending the three-point line at 43.1%. Considering what we just saw from Dayton in the last game, not to mention all season, LaSalle is going to give up a ton of points here. I've already played against the Explorers once this year and they lost 93-78 at Georgetown. Since then, they've won a pair of games decided by four points or less, over Fla Gulf Coast and Mercer. That game against Mercer, their first outside of Philly this year, went to triple overtime and actually saw them score their fewest pts in regulation to date. This shapes up as a total mismatch. 10* Dayton | |||||||
12-30-16 | West Virginia -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): West Virginia has won and covered all four meetings w/ Oklahoma State the L2 seasons and is the always tenuous short road favorite this afternoon in Stillwater, the first Big 12 game for both. Typically, such a scenario would have me leaning the other way, but I simply have way too much regard for the Mountaineers and cannot for the life of me understand why this line isn't higher. Also, how is WVU only 11th in the polls? I have them rated as one of the five best teams in the country (at least!). Maybe it's because Oklahoma State now has Brad Underwood running things on the bench that this line is so low. Underwood, of course, previous served as HC at Stephen F Austin, who upset WVU in LY's NCAA Tournament. But that fact won't be lost on Bob Huggins and these Mountaineers players, who are out for revenge. I took West Virginia exactly one week ago in their last game. They actually only led Northern Kentucky by seven at the half (this was in Morgantown), but put the clamps down late and pulled away, outscoring the Norse by 24 over the final 20 minutes. As discussed in LW's analysis, WVU is a very deep squad - sometimes going as deep as 13 players - and is also #1 in the country in forcing turnovers. They are top four nationally in defensive efficiency and top 14 in offensive efficiency. Six of their last seven wins have been by at least 27 pts. Sure, you might make the argument that this is a "true" road game, just their second of the season to date. Well, in their first they went to Virginia and won 66-57 as eight-point dogs, the lone non-27+ pt win over the L7 games, yet perhaps the most impressive victory of the bunch. Oklahoma State had to hire Underwood because the program had fallen on hard times under predecessor Travis Ford. The Cowboys went just 12-20 SU last season, so clearly they have a long way to go. They're already 10-2 SU for Underwood, but a 107-75 loss vs. North Carolina earlier in the year tells me they are nowhere near ready for an opponent of this caliber. Underwood is trying to build his team the same way Huggins has his, and in the same vein as we saw at SFA. But the problem here is that WVU is simply much better in all facets of the game right now. 10* West Virginia | |||||||
12-30-16 | Nebraska v. Tennessee UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Given the respective starts to the season that these teams enjoyed, both were hoping for a far more meaningful final destination than the Music City Bowl. For Tennessee, this essentially amounts to a home game in Nashville (three hour drive). This was supposed to "the year" for the Vols (stop me when you've heard that one before!) and for awhile it was looking like that might be the case. Though living dangerously (had to come from behind in almost every game), Rocky Top did stand at 5-0 straight up going into a date w/ fellow unbeaten Texas A&M at College Station. They lost, in overtime, and that begat a three-game losing streak that essentially sunk their season. Eliminated from SEC East title contention, they would go on to lose their regular season finale, as 7.5-pt favorites, at Vanderbilt 45-34. Nebraska actually made it all the way to 7-0 SU, but experienced a similar second half swoon. Also like Tennessee, the Cornhuskers' first loss of the year came in OT, at Wisconsin. No shame there, but the following week saw them get humiliated by Ohio State (62-3!) and the bloom was certainly off the rose, so to speak. The similarities with their bowl opponent continue as Nebraska lost its regular season finale, 40-10 at Iowa. More similarities? A good number of the 'Huskers wins this season were close games. Coming into the year though, I had anticipated that as this team experienced miserable fortune in such affairs last year (as did Tennessee!). With two similar, possibly disinterested teams, I have no opinion on the side here. So, instead let's look at the total. While the potential lack of interest may have most thinking 'Over', I'm going the other way. Nebraska is an Under team to begin with (9-3 this year) and this is a high total for them. Interestingly, two of their Overs came in the two poorest offensive efforts of the season (at Ohio State, Iowa). Though Tennessee's defense has been questionable, Nebraska won't be able to take advantage. That's because starting QB Tommy Armstrong is still out and now so too is top WR Jordan Westerkamp (knee), RB Tre Bryant (hamstring) and possibly TE Tyler Hoppes (concussion). That leaves the cupboard rather bare for former walk-on Ryker Fyfe, who actually broke his left wrist in the Maryland game. But the Huskers' defense (21st nationally in YPG allowed) should keep the team close even w/o safety Nate Gerry. 8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee | |||||||
12-30-16 | TCU +1 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 21 m | Show |
10* TCU (12:00 ET): It was nearly a year ago (just after the New Year) that TCU gave me what still stands as one of my most memorable wins of 2016. If you're a regular client of mine, perhaps you recall that the Horned Frogs were LY's *10* Bowl Game of the Year. Less than 48 hours before gametime, however, disaster struck. QB Trevone Boykin was arrested for punching a police officer and declared out for the game. Consequently, just about everyone wrote off TCU's chances in the Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon. Things looked especially dire when at halftime they trailed the Ducks 31-0. What happened from there is something I'll never forget. Playing w/o their starting QB, the Horned Frogs staged a comeback for the ages (largest in bowl history) and won the game outright, in triple OT, 47-41! Thus, I was never really concerned over whether or not this year's starting QB (Kenny Hill) would play, considering the miracle HC Gary Patterson pulled off last season. For the record, it's looking like Hill will play and for the second year in a row, TCU is a tremendous value in their bowl, this time the Liberty against Georgia. While TCU entered LY's Alamo Bowl w/ a 10-2 SU record and #11 ranking, this year's squad finished the regular season unranked at 6-6 SU. But they were certainly more "unlucky" than "bad." Case in point; they lost TWO double overtime games, one to Arkansas and another to Texas Tech (both games were in Ft. Worth). They lost outright four different times as a favorite (were 1-7 ATS overall as chalk), thus finished as one of the worst ATS bowlers at 3-9. But that's created some value here. This offense still averages 32 PPG. The defense was #1 in the Big 12 in both yards per play and attempt. Patterson has won four of his last five bowl games, the lone loss coming by a single point to Michigan State in 2012. TCU is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less. They are 6-2 SU/ATS off a bye. Georgia, like TCU, did not have an ideal finish to the regular season. While TCU was humbled by Kansas State, the same happened to UGA at the hands of in-state rival Ga Tech. They lost 28-27 (as 4-pt faves) at home to the Yellow Jackets, their third such loss by three points or less. First year HC Kirby Smart will have this program on an upward trajectory next year, but here he'll be hampered by an offense that topped TCU's scoring average only twice all year and one of those games was vs. LA Lafayette. The other was the season opener. Yes, some of that is going up against SEC defenses on a weekly basis, but UGA's league was down this year and remember they play in the weaker division. QB Jacob Eason was either "boom or bust" on a weekly basis and when facing pressure it was almost exclusively the latter. The 'Dawgs defense struggled all year against mobile QB's such as Hill. 10* TCU | |||||||
12-29-16 | North Dakota v. Portland State +1.5 | Top | 62-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Officially, Portland State hails from Big Sky country. However, the Vikings may want to petition to join the West Coast Conference. That's because already we've seen them pull off three outright wins over WCC foes, all on the road and all as underdogs of 8.5 pts or more. For the record, the three teams that they beat were: Pepperdine, San Francisco and Portland. Maybe PSU is the team that could finally unseat Gonzaga? In all seriousness, the Vikings appear to primed and ready to roll in tonight's conference opener vs. a North Dakota side that has dropped three in a row. These two are expected to be the top challengers to Weber State in the Big Sky, so a win would go a long way. I expect the home team to get the job done. Portland State has won all four of its home games, by an average 33.8 points per game, though I should point out that none of those games were lined. (All four opponents were non-D1). The most recent visits came from Walla Walla exactly one week ago and that resulted in a 118-59 victory. But prior to that were the upsets of San Francisco and Portland. Against the latter, they impressively controlled the game most of the way, even leading by double digits at the half. With the exception of two games this year - losses at Arizona State and Loyola Marymount (another WCC team), the Vikings have scored a minimum of 77 pts every time out. Among all Big Sky teams, this one was tops offensively and record-wise through the non-conf slate. North Dakota is 0-3 ATS head to head w/ PSU the L2 seasons, though they did win SU (by three) in LY's lone meeting (were -4 at home). Because Portland State was initially pegged so low in the Big Sky this season, we are still able to grab some nice value in this spot. As mentioned above, North Dakota did not finish its non-conference schedule well, though a double digit loss at Iowa was to be expected. They've been off for seven full days, which could actually work against them (rest vs. rust?). In the end, all we are looking at here is a team winning SU on its home court. I don't think that's too much to ask in this matchup. 8* Portland State | |||||||
12-29-16 | Rangers -160 v. Coyotes | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show | |
By the way, the 'Yotes have also lost five in a row coming into tonight, the last four all coming here on home ice! This team is second worst in the league in goals scored and second worst in goals allowed. That's an ugly combination right there (Colorado is 30th in both categories) and special teams are also no help w/ a 25th place ranking on the power play and 27th place ranking on the penalty kill. Goaltender Mike Smith is doing his damnedest to keep this sinking ship afloat, but the problem is the team is allowing - on average - the most shots per game in the entire league (34.7). That is starting to wear on Smith, who has a lousy .882 save percentage his L4 starts. The Rangers were outshot at home by Ottawa on Tuesday, but still came away w/ a 4-3 victory. It was a much needed victory after B2B disasters where they allowed seven goals each to Pittsburgh and Minnesota. But despite being on the road the next two games, it should be an easy four points w/ Arizona and Colorado providing the competition. The Rangers have dominated the West this year, going 12-4, and that includes a win over Arizona back in October. 8* NY Rangers | |||||||
12-29-16 | Thunder v. Grizzlies UNDER 198.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): Russell Westbrook has basically become a "one man band" for Oklahoma City as he is almost single-handedly carrying this offense. En route to Westbrook potentially becoming the 1st player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season, the team's overall offensive efficiency has plummeted all the way down to 15th from LY's second place ranking. Surprisingly though, the Thunder are up in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Of course, Memphis tops the league in that department. Unfortunately for the Grizz, they are also 29th in offensive efficiency while playing at the third slowest pace in the league. This one has all the makings of an Under. Oklahoma City has won and covered each of its last four games, averaging 114 points per game in the process. But they were hardly facing any defensive stalwarts. Let it be noted that their last game, a 106-94 win at Miami, stayed Under the total. That result improved the team to 6-1 Under when coming off three consecutive victories this season. The game even stayed Under despite the Thunder shooting better than 51% from the field. I seriously doubt they'll match that percentage here against the stingy Grizzlies, who only allow 94.7 points per game (on 41.1 FG%) at home. Memphis is off uncharacteristically poor B2B efforts defensively, both on the road, so expect them to "tighten the screws" tonight. There are only three teams in the entire league that both score and allow less than 100 PPG. Memphis is one of them (Utah and Detroit are the others). From that perspective, this play looks like a great value. Like I said earlier, Memphis is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league (only Philadelphia averages fewer points per possession) and they play at a really slow pace to boot. Coming off B2B high-scoring games, which is clearly atypical, we should see a "return to normalcy" tonight. Furthermore, there's a chance Mike Conley (missed last game) could sit out again due to his ongoing toe issue. While all three meetings last year between these teams went Over, clearly the Thunder are very different. Westbrook, as good as he is, can not send a game Over the total by himself. 8* Under Thunder/Grizzlies | |||||||
12-29-16 | Red Wings v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
10* Under Red Wings/Senators (8:05 ET): Yesterday's play on Florida may have come up short, but the discussion pertaining to the Atlantic Division remains relevant. The Division, top to bottom, is pretty poor at least when compared to the superior Metro. Outside of current leader Montreal, there is simply no safe bet here to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Ottawa is currently second w/ 43 points, but the Senators have been (slightly) outscored over the course of the year. Of course, so has last place Detroit, whose record-setting playoff streak is in major danger of being snapped. Both teams rank 20th or lower in goals scored, thus a low-scoring game here is a realistic expectation. Take the Under. Both teams lost on Tuesday by identical 4-3 scores. Ottawa's loss came at the Rangers, so no shame there whatsoever. Still though, it was a disappointing effort in goal from goaltender Mike Condon, who allowed four goals on just 25 shots. He is the likely starter again here. Given his .937 save percentage here at home, I think it's a safe bet to call for a bounce back. Overall, the Sens are 12th in goals allowed. They are unlikely to be tested much here by a Detroit side, which not only ranks 26th in goals per game, but also dead last on the power play. The Under is 6-3 in Ottawa home games so far this season when the total is 5.5. Detroit lost its last game (4-3) to Buffalo. That marked the fifth time in the last six games they allowed four goals. That's not good, whether you're simply taking about this play or just in general. But I think the Red Wings will tighten up here and it's definitely a "boon" that the awful Petr Mrazek (.823 save percentage L4 starts!) won't be the one between the pipes tonight. Mrazek allowed those four goals on just 22 shots against the Sabres Tuesday night. Instead, it's likely to be Jared Coreau making just his third start. Coreau wasn't great when he last started, but he also faced a ton of shots. It will help here that he won't have to deal with Ottawa's Zack Smith, who is out w/ an abdominal injury. In the last five games, Smith had seven points (four goals, three assists). 10* Under Red Wings/Senators | |||||||
12-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 200.5 | Top | 82-91 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Heat/Hornets (7:05 ET): Charlotte won last night in Orlando, 120-101 as 4.5-pt chalk. That was a nice bounce back from Monday's embarrassing 120-118 loss in Brooklyn. As if you couldn't tell from the scores there, both games easily went Over the total. I expect the same here as they return home to face another Southeast Division rival, Miami. The Heat are not as bad as their 10-22 SU record might seem to indicate, but they have lost five of six w/ the lone win coming at home against the Lakers. These teams have a notable history of staying Under the total when matching up, particularly here in the Queen City. But for the most part those were better defensive teams. Take the Over here. For the record, 22 of the previous 28 meetings here in Charlotte have stayed Under the total. That includes all seven the previous two seasons. Remember that these two did match up in a first round playoff series last year. The Heat prevailed there in seven games w/ each of the last five games staying Under. So too did the 1st meeting of 2016-17, which was the second game of the year for both sides. The final score there (game played in Miami) was 97-91 in the Hornets' favor, though both teams shot the ball very poorly overall. Charlotte was 38.0% while Miami was 37.2%. The Heat shot that poorly despite actually making 14 of 34 three-point attempts. That means they were just 18 of 52 on two-point attempts, which is head-scratchingly awful. They also missed seven of 20 FT attempts. So, what has changed for this go around? Well, for starters, I obviously expect both teams to shoot the ball a whole lot better. Charlotte has scored a combined 238 points its last two games and averaging 113 PPG over its last five. The Over is 10-3 for them this season when matched up against a team w/ a losing record. Both teams have slipped in defensive efficiency this year compared to last. It should be noted that the Hornets allowed the Magic to shoot 59% in the first half last night. Miami allowed OKC to shoot better than 51% on Tuesday, a game where they gave up 106 points. They've allowed 100+ pts in 13 of the past 17 games and two of the exceptions saw them allow 98 and 99. 10* Over Heat/Hornets | |||||||
12-28-16 | Kings v. Canucks OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* Over Kings/Canucks (10:05 ET): Los Angeles, save for a 4-0 shutout of Nashville on 12.22, has not won in the past 12 days. Tonight will mark the team's eighth consecutive road game, of a nine-game trip, which began all the way back on 12.13. They've gotten to enjoy four full days off since losing 3-2 at Dallas on Friday, but one still must wonder if fatigue will be a factor. Plus, they are 0-3 this season when taking the ice on at least three days rest. One thing that Kings do have going for them tonight is they'll be in Vancouver where the Canucks continue to struggle. Vancouver was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year and they have obliged in kind w/ one of the worst records in the league. But, at home, they're generally more competitive so I'll stay away from the side. Instead, let's look at the total. Another trend worth noting when the Kings are well rested (3+ days off) is the Over is 11-4. Each of their last six games on this trip have seen five or fewer total goals scored and you'd have to go back to a 6-3 loss at Buffalo (first game of the trip) to find their last Over. Their last two wins have been by shutout. While Peter Budaj has proven himself to be a worthy fill-in for the great Jonathan Quick (injured), he has struggled in division games w/ only an .896 save percentage. He stopped only 22 of 25 shots when he faced the Canucks back in October. The good news is that the Kings still won that game, 4-3, and given Vancouver's own issues between the pipes, I envision a similar score this time around. The Canucks have lost their last two games by identical scores of 4-1. Unlike the Kings, their games tend to be high scoring as six straight and 10 of the last 11 have seen at least five total goals scored. Former Olympic hero Ryan Miller has not been good of late (.850 save percentage L4 starts!) and it appears as if he'll be the chosen one in goal tonight. It's not like Jacob Markstrom is much better anyway. While it is incredible to me that Vancouver is only averaging 20.4 shots over the last five games and it's concerning they are facing the best shot suppression team in the league, I think they'll be able to help sneak this one Over the total. 10* Over Kings/Canucks | |||||||
12-28-16 | Iowa v. Purdue -12 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Purdue (8:30 ET): The Big 10 Conference enjoyed a renaissance on the football field this year, challenging the all-mighty SEC as the best in the land. However, somewhat quietly, the level of play we've seen in Big 10 basketball has ironically faded at the same time. During the Big 10's time as arguably the strongest league nationally, Iowa was a program that never really lived up to the hype. The Hawkeyes certainly aren't as strong now as they've been in past years, thus I shudder to think what the reaction will be from the always temperamental HC Fran McCaffery here as his team faces what I have ranked as the standard-bearer for Big 10 basketball in 2016, Purdue. I look for the Boilermakers to roll tonight in West Lafayette. Lay the points. Really, one could make case that any one of three teams could win the Big 10 this year. Iowa is not among that group. Purdue is, along w/ Wisconsin and Indiana. But as stated earlier, I currently have the Boilermakers rated as the best of the lot. They finished the non-conference slate at 11-2 SU w/ a 46-pt rout of Norfolk State seven days ago. Their only losses so far have come to Villanova and Louisville, who are a combined 23-1 straight up. The loss to 'Nova did come here in West Lafayette, but otherwise they're 7-0 SU at home and still outscoring visitors by a whopping 24.5 points per game. Since losing at Louisville on 11.30, Matt Painter's team has covered all five of its lined games, including an impressive 86-81 win over Notre Dame. Every other win has come by at least 24 points. This is a loaded roster, which contains the Big 10's leading scorer (Peter Jok at 22.6 PPG) and Caleb Swanigan, who just went for 32 points and 20 rebounds in the last game. Making this play all the more appetizing is that it's a double revenge spot for Purdue as they lost both meetings last season. In the game here at home, they blew a 17-point halftime lead and somehow lost despite holding the Hawkeyes to just 20 first half points. This year, Iowa is not as strong as they've already lost five times, including a game to Nebraska-Omaha. The Hawkeyes have played just one "true" road game thus far and lost it (by double digits) to the same Notre Dame team that Purdue just beat. Including neutral site games, Iowa is just 1-3 away from Iowa City. They, like Purdue, come in with plenty of rest, but the problem there is an 18-40 ATS record when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Purdue has been one of the best teams to bet on in recent years, going 46-25 ATS in all games L3 seasons, including 7-1 as a favorite so far in 2016. 10* Purdue | |||||||
12-28-16 | Bucks +4 v. Pistons | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I played both of these teams on the day after Christmas. Truth be told, I feel it "should" have been a 2-0 sweep. Detroit certainly held up its end of the bargain, blowing out an undermanned Cleveland team (no LeBron James), 106-90. It certainly helped the Pistons that the Cavs were off a huge win over Golden State on Christmas (reason James was held out). Meanwhile, around the same time that Detroit was beating Cleveland, Milwaukee also appeared to be en route to a double digit win in Washington. They led the Wizards most of the way after jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and the game was 96-86 in their favor w/ just over seven minutes to go. But from there, they were outscored 21-6 and I had to settle for a 'push.' I look for atonement tonight from the Bucks, who are the better team getting points. The Bucks come off three straight 'home and home' sets, which was some quirky scheduling. They swept Chicago, got swept by Cleveland and then split with the Wizards. Here, they will face a Detroit team that they lost to very early in the year, 98-83 as seven-point underdogs in the Motor City. Judging by the lines, the Bucks have clearly picked up some respect from the oddsmakers as they should have. Or is it that the Pistons have lost some? Probably a little of both. I don't read much into the fact that Detroit just went 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists. What a break it was to face those teams, both at home, sandwiched around the NBA Finals rematch on X-Mas Day. Prior to beating the LeBron-less Cavs on Monday, the Pistons had lost five in a row, four of those coming by double digits. While Milwaukee perhaps might still be a little short-handed tonight, they're still in a better spot than the last time they came calling to the Palace of Auburn Hills. On October 30th, they were in the second game of a back to back and had just won a tough two-point game the night previous. While some role players might be MIA, the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who damn well better be an All-Star this year. Outside of Tony Snell, no one made a three-pointer against the Wizards, something that will not happen tonight. Nor will the Pistons be able to benefit from the Bucks shooting a poor 38% from the floor like the LeBron-less Cavs did Monday night. Detroit, typically a poor shooting team in its own right, was 16 of 28 from three-point range against Cleveland as well. That won't be duplicated here as for the year they're just 34.4% from behind the arc. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
12-28-16 | Maple Leafs v. Panthers -125 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:05 ET): The Atlantic Division will likely have no more than four, and probably only three, playoff spots available this year. That's because the top five in the Metro are so strong. The good news for both Florida (LY's division winner) and Toronto (perennial cellar dweller) is that besides Montreal, it's wide open in the Atlantic right now. Still, both really need to get in gear as they are currently four and five points off the pace respectively and that's not counting Ottawa, who has surged into second. You also have to figure Tampa Bay will get things going at some point. So, what I'm basically saying is, the Panthers desperately need to take advantage of this opportunity on home ice against a team w/ a losing record. Though the Leafs have the better YTD goal differential, I think the Panthers get it done. The Leafs have gotten themselves "into the black" in terms of YTD goal differential (only two other Atlantic teams can claim they are in the black) thanks to their last two wins, each of them coming on the road. But note while it was a combined 10-1 margin of victory, they beat Colorado and Arizona, who are the league's two worst clubs. Winning three straight on the road is hard to do in this league, especially w/ a four-day break in between games when you're a young team like this one. BTW, the Maple Leafs are 0-2 this season when taking the ice w/ at least three days rest. Florida is 2-0 in the same situation. While the Leafs have won B2B road games, the Panthers have dropped B2B games at home. The last one came in a shootout to Detroit on Friday. The team still has a winning record in Miami though (9-6-1) while Toronto has dropped 11 of its 16 road games (five in OT/shootout). Florida should also be motivated here by the fact this is a double revenge spot as twice they've lost up in Toronto this year. These teams are pretty even, thus it seems illogical that one would dominate the season series. Home ice is again the difference maker. 10* Florida | |||||||
12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 283 h 7 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (5:30 ET): The line for the Russell Athletic Bowl is sure to turn some heads. We have an unranked team favored over a ranked one, and a Top 16 one at that. But I'm not going to fall for the oddsmakers' trap here. Miami, led by its QB Brad Kaaya, had a strong finish to the regular season. They won their last four games, all by 14 pts or more, covering the spread every time. That includes a 51-28 thrashing of a Pitt team that would go on to upset Clemson (in Death Valley) the following week. Meanwhile, while #16 West Virginia turned in a 10-2 SU regular season, they did so despite beating only TWO teams (BYU, Kansas State) that had winning records. Both of those games were in Morgantown, early in the season, as well. Lay the points. Perhaps the relatively weak schedule explains why the Mountaineers were able to turn in a surprisingly strong defensive performance this year, despite playing in the Big 12. Note, however, that they were rocked at home by Oklahoma, giving up 56 points. This defense gave up a lot of yards, 431 per game to be exact. So the fact they only allowed 23.4 points per game should be considered somewhat fortuitous. Over the L5 games, WVU allowed a minimum of 440 yds every time out. They needed a +4 TO margin at home to squeak by Baylor at home in the reg season finale. Call me crazy, but I don't think motivation will be as high as it will be on the other side. This bowl assignment following a 10-2 SU campaign hardly seems "rewarding." Miami's defense allowed only 18.9 PPG this year and gave up far fewer yards than WVU. So they look to have the edge on that side of the ball. With Kaaya under center, I think they're the better offensive team as well. Kaaya has posted three consecutive 3,000+ yard seasons and is the program's all-time passing leader (think about that for a second!). Yes, I am aware that seven Hurricanes have been suspended for this game, but most were not major contributors. The remaining players will desperately want to snap "The U's" 0-fer streak in bowl games that dates back to '06. First year HC Mark Richt is 10-5 SU all-time in bowl games and I think it's important that he finishes w/ a better record than last year's team. The 'Canes played only one bad game all season (at Va Tech) as all eight wins were by two touchdowns or greater. Their other three losses (besides Va Tech) were by a combined 11 pts. I'm high on the job Richt is doing down in Coral Gables. 10* Miami FL | |||||||
12-28-16 | Northwestern v. Pittsburgh UNDER 66 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Northwestern/Pitt (2:00 ET): Though an 8-4 SU record and trip to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl hardly seems like an ideal way to end one's season, Pittsburgh should be proud of how it performed in year #2 under HC Pat Narduzzi. They beat two Power 5 Conference Champions. One was Penn State early in the year, the other was Clemson, as 21.5-pt underdogs in Death Valley! The Panthers can lay claim to being the ONLY ACC team to beat Clemson over the L2 seasons. They can also lay claim to being one of the top Over teams in the country. Every game since the opener, which was against FCS Villanova, finished Over the total. That's 11 straight, for those keeping score at home. But as one (if not the only?) "cold weather" bowl game (Game Time Temp expected to be 42), I believe this game will be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under. Northwestern was a clear regression candidate coming into 2016 and regress is exactly what they did, going from 10-3 SU a year ago to 6-6 w/ this one game remaining. The Wildcats have been regular bowl participants during HC Pat Fitzgerald's tenure here, but have won just ONE bowl game in 10 appearances! Though they curiously averaged significantly more points per game on the road than in Evanston, the Under was 8-4 for this team during the regular season. In each of those four Overs, three of those coming on the road, they scored 38 points or more. But in the other eight games, they failed to top 24 points! That's quite the discrepancy. With two hard-nosed head coaches like Narduzzi and Fitzgerald, a high-scoring affair just doesn't seem right. This total, which is easily the highest for any N'western game this season (by a touchdown), is clearly influenced by some of the high scores both teams saw at the end of the regular season. But note those games were played against non-bowl teams. That 76-61 win over Syracuse in the reg season finale is a result Pitt may never repeat again as long as the program lives. The Under is 9-2 in Northwestern's L11 non-conference games and w/ two run-heavy offenses, expect the clock to stay moving. Pitt allows only 109 yds rushing per game. Northwestern is also stingy when it comes to allowing yds over land. By the way, Pitt also lost its offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) just last week. 10* Under Northwestern/Pitt | |||||||
12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:35 ET): I really like the Jazz in this spot. Granted, they have not been performing well of late. But I still have them ranked in the top seven in the league despite three consecutive losses. Two were to Golden State and Toronto, who are my top two ranked teams. The third came by one point. After having the Holiday weekend off, I anticipate this team will come out highly motivated and take advantage of an opponent ripe for a letdown. The Lakers beat the Clippers on Christmas Day, but remain a downtrodden franchise as it was only their second win in December, the other coming at Philadelphia's expense. Lay the number here. Really, the fact that the Jazz are even competitive in the Western Conference is really impressive given all the injuries that they have had to deal with. George Hill and Alec Burks remain out, though Rodney Hood is expected back tonight after dealing with the flu. That said, the won-loss record could certainly be better. It's a bit strange to see that they've played only three games decided by three points or less. But they definitely gave one away Wednesday to Sacramento. Still, I'm encouraged by the fact that over half of the team's wins have come by double digits and they've also cleaned up against the bottom feeders, going 13-5 vs. those teams at .500 or below. The Lakers, for those keeping score at home, are 12-22 SU. While the Lakers may have snapped an 11-game win streak against their tenants and city rival on X-Mas day, the Clippers were clearly short-handed as they were without both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. So let's not give Luke Walton's team too much credit, okay. LA continues to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (currently 29th). That's a far cry from Utah's fourth place ranking. In fact, there's a 15.4 point per game differential between what the Jazz and Lakers respectively allow. Not only do the Lakers have just two wins this month, they are only 4-10 ATS. Utah is 6-1 ATS the L7 times its has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, including perfect 3-0 ATS this season. 10* Utah | |||||||
12-27-16 | Baylor +8.5 v. Boise State | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
10* Baylor (10:15 ET): A "dark cloud" hung above the Baylor program coming into 2016 in the wake of a wave of sexual assault allegations. HC Art Briles was shown the door and Jim Grobe (Ohio, Wake Forest) stepped in as a lame duck. Matt Rhule (Temple) has already accepted the head coaching job for next year, so Grobe and his players (which WON'T include RB Shock Linwood) have one more game together in this most lame duck of seasons, which sees the team enter the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl on a six-game losing skid, an all-time record for any bowler. I called the Bears a "toxic program" heading into the reg season finale at WVU, but they covered for me anyway, even outgaining the Mountaineers in a back and forth 24-21 loss as 17-point dogs. As was the case there, I think there's plenty of value on the Bears here. Take the points. Baylor experienced the opposite season of fellow bowler Miami (OH), a team that opened 0-6 SU but finished 6-6 SU. The Bears hope to now experience the same ATS result that Miami did in yday's St. Petersberg Bowl. This will be just the third time this year Baylor is an underdog, the other two coming at Oklahoma and WVU. Since the start of 2013, this is just the sixth time they are getting points in any contest. They are 3-2 ATS in the previous five, including an upset in LY's Russell Athletic Bowl vs. North Carolina where they came in similarly short-handed and all they did there was roll up a bowl record 645 yards rushing. So, I'm not really bothered by Linwood's absence as he wasn't even the team's leading rusher in the reg season. Terence Williams (945 yards) was. I should probably mention Baylor's opponent at some point. That would be Boise State, who like Baylor was 3-9 ATS in the regular season. The Broncos' vaunted reputation actually works against them at the betting window, at least in conference play, where more often than not they are large favorites. By the way, as respected as this program is, they've won only one Mountain West Title since 2011. Despite that, they have won four bowl games since that time. But while they certainly love to take on teams from the Power 5 conferences, it is rare for them to be favored by so much over one. There is precedent (last year) for Baylor playing well in this spot and seeing as the offense is "plug and play," they can overcome those absences too. 10* Baylor | |||||||
12-27-16 | Jets v. Blackhawks -173 | 3-1 | Loss | -173 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
7* Chicago (8:35 ET): The Blackhawks are right where you'd expect to find them at this juncture of the season, that is in first place in the Central Division w/ 49 points. However, the hard-charging Wild are hot on their heels, just three points back due to a current 10-game win streak. So what I'm saying is that Chicago can't really afford to drop another game to a lowly opponent like Winnipeg, who is the team that comes to the Madhouse on Madison on Tuesday. The Jets, expected to be contenders in the Central this season, are having a rough time w/ only 35 points. They are, however, 2-0 vs. the 'Hawks this season. But in this instance, the third time will be the charm for Chicago. In two losses to Winnipeg so far, Chicago has managed only one goal. That's unusual considering the Jets rank in the bottom third of the league in goals allowed per game. Earlier this month, they did win here in the Windy City, but overall road games have not gone well. They are just 6-11-2 outside of Manitoba and the last time they played a road game, they lost 4-1 at Vancouver. (Canucks are one of the worst teams in the league). In fact, I pretty much disregard the fact the Jets are 3-1 their last four games as the wins have come over Florida, Colorado and Vancouver, all at home. On the road, this team is averaging just 25.2 shots per game this year! Perhaps just as shocking as the Blackhawks being 0-2 against the Jets this year is the fact they've also dropped B2B home games, to Ottawa and Colorado no less. Once again, I see the "third time being the charm" here. Chicago is 8-2 SU seeking revenge for a home loss. They actually had 39 shots on goal in the loss to the Avs on Friday, which came in a shootout by the way. Prior to the B2B losses, Chicago had won five straight. They are simply the much better team, and given the revenge angle and sense of urgency, should show that tonight. March was the last time this team lost three straight games. They have Corey Crawford in goal and he has not lost a home game in regulation in over two months, posting a 1.77 GAA and two shutouts in 10 games. In seven career home games vs. the Jets, Crawford's GAA is also 1.77. 7* Chicago | |||||||
12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): It has certainly been a messy time between the end of the regular season and the Holiday Bowl for Minnesota. Allegations of sexual assault rocked the program, resulting in the suspension of 10 players. Their teammates threatened to boycott the bowl game; that was until they learned more about the allegations. HC Tracy Claeys has found himself in the midst of a firestorm for defending the players looking to boycott and his job may be hanging in the balance. After all that, a game will be played Tuesday night in San Diego and the Golden Gophers are big underdogs to Washington State. As unpopular a side as the Gophers may be w/ bettors and the public right now, I can see a situation unfold where they become galvanized. Certainly, there is now some value in taking the points (line opened much lower) and that's what I'll do. The grand irony here is that Claeys did a good job with this team this year. He took over in 2015 for Jerry Kill, who had to resign due to health concerns. The Gophers were one of a handful of 5-7 SU bowl teams LY and like the others, won and covered, defeating Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl (21-14 as four-point chalk). It was the program's first bowl win since 2005, snapping a seven-game losing streak. I was fairly high on the team this year and they improved to 8-4 SU. All four losses occurred in league (Big 10) play and three were by seven points or less. The other was the reg season finale at Wisconsin 31-17 as 14.5-pt dogs. I really like this team's 13-5 ATS mark when taking points. The offense will look to play "keep away" with a rushing game that averages 186 YPG over land. The defense, while somewhat suspect against the pass, typically does a great job rushing the passer. They are 21st in the country in sacks per game. Washington State was a team I expected to regress some in 2016, but for a second consecutive season they enter the bowl game w/ an 8-4 record. But I'm not sure motivation will be as high here as it was going into LY's 20-14 victory over Miami in the Sun Bowl. Give the Cougars' credit for having another strong passing attack (5th in the country), but the Pac 12 simply was not as strong as the Big 10 was this year. I'm not in love w/ Wazzu as a favorite, a role they are just 3-4 ATS in this year and 1-4 ATS L5 times laying 3.5 to 10 points. Also, there's a bit of a concern here after a disappointing loss in the Apple Cup (Washington) in the reg season finale. Certainly, that game meant more to the players than this one will. 8* Minnesota |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |