Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-30-18 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -7 | 42-51 | Win | 105 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
The Bulls have been a great story thus far and have a shot at a legit bowl if they continue to rack up wins. The underrated part of this team has been the defense, which wasn't expected to be a strength. At 7-1, they are rolling MAC teams. Miami OH comes in at 3-5 but is a pretty solid team with a good OL and the ability to score some points. Even though this doesn't look like a blowout on paper, I still expect UB to score in the 30s which should be enough to cover the TD spread. PICK: Buffalo -7 | |||||||
10-30-18 | Kings +5 v. Magic | 107-99 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Kings | |||||||
10-29-18 | Raptors -2 v. Bucks | 109-124 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 24 m | Show | |
In what looks to be the game of the day, the Saints travel to Minnesota for Sunday night football. Drew Brees has been near perfect, as usual, this whole season. On the other side of the ball, their defense has been less than impressive, allowing 6 yards per play, ranking them a lowly 26th in the league. Minnesota had that weird loss to Buffalo as a massive favorite of 16 but looks to have really fixed most of their issues. They are now allowing very little to the opposing offenses via ground or air. While the Saints can obviously score, I am not expecting them to be able to simply do whatever they want against this Vikings D. Conversely, the Vikings should move the ball through the air with relative ease. This is going to be an electric atmosphere in Minn and betting this at an even spread is too nice to pass up PICK: Vikings ( even) | |||||||
10-28-18 | Jazz -4.5 v. Mavs | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 45 m | Show | |
This game sets up as a perfect play if you look at how their recent games actually played out. The Niners have lost 14 straight turnovers making them look way worse than they actually are. As any good capper will tell you, turnovers involve quite a bit of luck. In fact, the last time these two teams met, turnovers helped the Cards get the win. A lot of bettors are looking to that game as some sort of proof AZ is the better team but they are sorely mistaken. Josh Rosen has not looked great to start his career and now he is battling a banged up toe, making him even less mobile. Combine that with the fact that San Fran has the WAY better coach and this is a slam dunk. Better team in the better spot at a near pickem PICK: 49ers -1 | |||||||
10-28-18 | Packers +9.5 v. Rams | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show | |
Guys, I know the Rams are basically a dream team but come on, Rodgers as a 9.5 pt dog?! Only 4x has he been 6+ pt dog and he is 4-0 vs the number in those games. Even if The Rams get up big, who would you rather have to score late garbage points than Green Bay? Add to this they get back Cobb and Alison, and you got yourself a fine bet on the best QB of our time getting huge points PICK: Packers +9.5 | |||||||
10-28-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Lions | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show | |
Both these teams were left for dead earlier this season and both have showed some sign of life. Detroit has actually been running the ball, something unheard of in their past. Seattle, has been rapidly improving in both their run game and their defense. Seattle has near losses against the Bears and the Rams and is looking like a team with a real shot at a road win. I expect Wilson to make some big plays on the Lions secondary and for them to be able to establish the run against the leagues worst run defense. As a cherry on top, Seattle is historically a great underdog in the last 8 years, covering about 2/3 times. PICK: Seattle +3 | |||||||
10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
If this season proves anything, it's that relying on defense to perform consistently in the NFL is not a great formula for success. The Jags have completely fallen apart on D which doesn't bode well for an offense led by Bortles and Doug Marrone, who basically wants to run the ball like its 1980. Philly has had a massive SB hangover but this will be the week when they get it back together. Look for the Eagles to beat up on this woeful Jags team in London and get back on track for a division run and easily cover this modest number. PICK: Eagles -3 | |||||||
10-27-18 | Texas -2 v. Oklahoma State | 35-38 | Loss | -113 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
10-27-18 | Navy v. Notre Dame -21.5 | 22-44 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
10-27-18 | Kentucky v. Missouri -7 | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 33 m | Show | |
10-27-18 | Clemson v. Florida State +18 | 59-10 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 49 m | Show | |
10-26-18 | Utah v. UCLA +10.5 | 41-10 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
10-26-18 | Wyoming v. Colorado State +3 | 34-21 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
10-25-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers +4 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Lakers | |||||||
10-25-18 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -3 | 49-28 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. Take The Hokies | |||||||
10-25-18 | Blazers -3 v. Magic | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Blazers | |||||||
10-24-18 | Wizards +10 v. Warriors | 122-144 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Wizards | |||||||
10-24-18 | Lakers -4.5 v. Suns | 131-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Lakers | |||||||
10-24-18 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | 108-123 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The 76ers | |||||||
10-24-18 | Mavs -2 v. Hawks | Top | 104-111 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Mavericks | |||||||
10-23-18 | 76ers v. Pistons +1 | 132-133 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. Take The Pistons | |||||||
10-21-18 | Rams v. 49ers +10 | 39-10 | Loss | -125 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
These familiar foes always seem to play each other tough, even when one team is clearly the mire talented. The same will hold true this week as the Niners will do enough to cover this huge number at home. No doubt, the Rams are a juggernaut, but this San Fran defense is starting to play better and their offense can score just enough. PICK: 49ers +10 | |||||||
10-21-18 | Bills +9 v. Colts | 5-37 | Loss | -130 | 70 h 17 m | Show | |
The Bills now have shown they have a top 5 defense. They have been dominating up front with sacks and pressure and holding up well in the secondary. The bills have been historically bad offensively but, as odd as it sounds, they get a huge upgrade at QB with veteran journeyman Derek Anderson. Josh Allen was throwing for 80 yards a game and Anderson will almost certainly do better. Indy has a pretty pourous defense, despite a good pass rush and the Bills should get to Luck enough to keep this close. Way too many points. PICK: BILLS +9 | |||||||
10-21-18 | Patriots -2.5 v. Bears | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
Gonna make this one short and sweet fellas. The Pats are laying less than a FG as they start to take shape for another inevitable run. There are things to like about the Bears but not enough to take them to win in this spot. Friendly line for Brady and co PICK: Patriots -2.5 | |||||||
10-21-18 | Titans v. Chargers -6.5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -113 | 46 h 48 m | Show |
Tennessee is a mess. After that nice win over Philly they get shut down in Buffalo then shutout in Baltimore. The offense is not working and it’s tough to say whether their QB is 100% healthy. To add tho this, The Titans running game, which was a perceived strength, is pretty weak. Henry really can’t get going at all. The Chargers are red hot. Rivers is spreading the ball around and Gordon is starting to play up to his potential. It is difficult to see a scenario where the Titans can shut down this high powered offense or score enough to keep pace. PICK: Chargers -6.5 | |||||||
10-20-18 | San Jose State +26 v. San Diego State | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
10-20-18 | Wolves -2.5 v. Mavs | 136-140 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
10-20-18 | Oregon +3 v. Washington State | 20-34 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
10-20-18 | Raptors +1.5 v. Wizards | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
10-20-18 | Colorado +16 v. Washington | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 108 h 36 m | Show | |
Analysis by Friday Oct 19th | |||||||
10-20-18 | Alabama v. Tennessee +29 | 58-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
10-20-18 | Northwestern -20.5 v. Rutgers | 18-15 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
10-19-18 | Air Force v. UNLV +13 | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 90 h 54 m | Show | |
Analysis by Friday Oct 18th | |||||||
10-18-18 | Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Cardinal | |||||||
10-18-18 | Broncos -1 v. Cardinals | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Broncos | |||||||
10-18-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
The Red Sox are outplaying the Astros and have the better overall team this season but with Chris Sale's injuries this season the Astros still have the best pitcher. Verlander seems to be getting better and better with age and he has been dominate again this postseason. He held the Red Sox to 2 runs on 2 hits one week after he held the Indians to 2 runs on 2 hits in the ALDS. Red Sox manager Alex Cora went all out with his bullpen to win game 5 and put the Sox up 3-1 knowing who was pitching in game 5 and if the Sox lose game 5 he knew he would have Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi waiting in game 6 and 7 to advance to the World Series. After two straight intense games, Boston's bullpen is taxed and that's not good with Price on the mound. Price didn't pitch too bad in game 2 but he will struggle the second time against this Astros lineup. I think the Astros win by a few runs in this one so I'm betting the run line to maximize profits and minimize risk. The Pick: Take Houston -1.5 | |||||||
10-17-18 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Clippers | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Nuggets | |||||||
10-17-18 | Cavs +13 v. Raptors | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Cavaliers | |||||||
10-17-18 | Bucks -3 v. Hornets | 113-112 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Bucks | |||||||
10-17-18 | Nets v. Pistons -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Pistons | |||||||
10-16-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -12.5 | 100-108 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
12.5 is a lot of points to lay on opening night against a team that finished 4th in the Western Conference last season but without Russell Westbrook and with the Warriors playing their best on the night they get their rings this will be a blowout. The Pick: Take The Warriors | |||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
Man if ever there is a spot to fade the Chiefs it’s gotta be prime time against the Patriots. Add to that the fact that the Chiefs embarrassed New England last year, and we have a perfect spot. BB is almost unbeatable at home against young QBs but really this bet is about the Patriots offense doing whatever they want. This is easy PICK: PATRIOTS -3 | |||||||
10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3 | 7-40 | Win | 105 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
The Jaguars have been all over the place this year but the one constant is they have underperformed on defense and in the running game. That leaves too much on the unreliable shoulders of Blake Bortles, especially on the road against a stingy Dallas defense. Dallas is yet again plagued by poor coaching and lack of play makers. Still, they do have enough to put up some points, even against this solid defense. I’m expecting Dallas to play good defense and possibly win this outright. Going with the home dog. PICK: Cowboys +3 | |||||||
10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans +2.5 | 21-0 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 53 m | Show | |
If you have followed me for a while you know I pick my spots when using trends. The main factor is I need there to be a large, league wide sample for a trend to be meaningful. In other words, a trend should have a lot of games in a long period of time and rarely be team specific. All that said, we have a great trend in this one. NFL teams in their third straight road game are 42% ATS over the last 30 years. That’s pretty remarkable on its own. Add to that the fact that the Titans are coming off a miserable loss to the Bills and there is a huge overreaction and we have a nice play. PICK: Titans +2.5 | |||||||
10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
When looking at a match up it is useful to look at each teams main strengths versus their opponents weaknesses. Arizona matches up terribly with Minnesota this way. The Vikings strength defensively is their front 7 and their pass rush while Arizona simply cannot pass protect. David Johnson has been a non factor so Rosen is in for a long day with pressure in his face ( and likely down early). The Vikings strength is their two great wideouts and Arizona can only match up with one of them. Throw in the fact that AZ struggles stopping tight ends and 6ou have a blow out Sunday. This is a larger spread than I would normally bet, but it’s Going to get ugly. PICK: VIKINGS -10 | |||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 38 h 37 m | Show | |
Atlanta finds itself in a must win game if they have any aspirations for the playoffs. At 3 points we are catching some value with the Falcons who were a preseason 7 pt favorite in this game. Not much has really changed about my ratings for either team so the line is significantly favorable. Atlanta has played poor defense but their offense is unstoppable at home and I don’t expect this to change against a pourous Bucs defense. PICK: FALCONS -3 | |||||||
10-14-18 | Steelers v. Bengals | 28-21 | Win | 105 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
The Steelers flat out own the Bengals. In fact they are 17-6-1 against the number in their last 24 games facing their divisional rivals. Same goes for Big Ben, who normally stinks on the road. He plays very well in Cincinnati. Add to these overwhelming trends the fact the Bengals have been pretty fortunate in their wins and the Steelers need this game to salvage this season and all signs point to a big performance from Pitt. While I really like this Bengals team, this won’t be their week. PICK: STEELERS ( PICK) | |||||||
10-13-18 | Baylor +14.5 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take Baylor and The Points. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Pittsburgh +22 v. Notre Dame | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The Points and Pittsburgh | |||||||
10-13-18 | Minnesota +30 v. Ohio State | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due To Limited Time. The Pick: Take The points and the Gophers. | |||||||
10-12-18 | South Florida -7.5 v. Tulsa | 25-24 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
No Analysis Due to Limited Time. The Pick: Take South Florida. | |||||||
10-11-18 | Eagles -1 v. Giants | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
The NFC East as a whole has struggled thus far. Leading the way in disappointing starts are the Eagles, who appear to have a major hangover. Tonight is as good a time as any to get right against a Giants team that is too flawed to compete week to week. As good as Barkley looks, most thought it was a head scratcher when they passed on drafting a QB and spent big on a RB. It looks like that skepticism was well founded because Eli is well below replacement level as a signal caller. Combine that with the fact that the Eagles still sport a defense that is more than capable of rushing the passer and you have a recipe for a rough night for the Giants. More so, I expect that Eagles passing game to finally get off against a pass defense that has been less than stout. I am not sure whether Philly will return to form this year or not but they have enough talent to pull out a win and beat this small number Thursday night. Take The road favorite. PICK: EAGLES -1 | |||||||
10-11-18 | Georgia Southern -17 v. Texas State | 15-13 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern is an impressive 5-0 ATS on the season and is in the perfect spot to go 6-0. The Eagles have dangerous dual-threat QB Shai Werts who is dynamic running the ball but can also throw if needed. In this game he won't have to throw much as Texas Tech's run defense is awful. The Bobcats have given up over 200 yards a game on the ground this season which isn't good when you're facing Werts who has almost 500 yards and 8 touchdowns and a Georgia Southern offense that ranks 8th in the country in rushing yards. Southern runs wild and scores the cover. The Pick: Take Georgia Southern | |||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
The Raiders have no pass rush, which doesn't make the Mack trade look any better. They also have no real ability to stop anyone and that doesn't bode well for a match up against Rivers and the Chargers. I realize this is not a real home game for the Chargers. In fact, they seem to be preparing for a road-like atmosphere this week by pumping noise into their practices. Still, the Chargers are going to pour it on this lousy Raiders team and win big. PICK: Chargers -4.5 | |||||||
10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
The Chiefs have been Scoring at will with their high powered offense led by Mahomes and a slew of weapons. Along with that they sport a swiss cheese defense though. In fact, at Denver, they were really a bad Keenan throw away from having lost to a mediocre Broncos team. Mahomes is the real deal but this Jaguars defense is a way stiffer test than what they have faced thus far. The Chiefs won’t be able to stop the Jags running attack or quick passing game and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jacksonville gets the outright win. PICK: Jaguars +3 | |||||||
10-06-18 | Kentucky +6 v. Texas A&M | 14-20 | Push | 0 | 33 h 1 m | Show | |
This match up reads like a toss up to me, so taking the 6 points is a no brainer. A&M is a tough team to play on the road but Kentucky has been impressive defensively, let by all world pass rusher Josh Allen and Snell looking like one of the best backs in the country. The Aggies will try to force Kentucky to pass the ball and may have some success in this way but Kentucky will find a way to make enough plays to keep this one close and maybe get the win. PICK: Kentucky +6 | |||||||
10-06-18 | SMU v. Central Florida -24 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
SMU travels to Florida to take on UCF as a big road underdog. This is not a good match up for the Mustangs. I fully expect UCF to make a bunch of big plays and score pretty much at will. UCF is scoring at an amazing rate of 94% inside the Red Zone and that doesn't bode well for SMU who can't stop teams inside the 20. The only chance SMU has is to limit UCF to FG's and force turnovers, which seems unlikely. PICK: Central Florida -24 | |||||||
10-06-18 | Kansas v. West Virginia -27.5 | 22-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
Kansas has been a bit better than I anticipated this year, sort of hanging tough in games they shouldn't but this is a terrible spot for them. West Virginia's high powered offense is going to feast on that Kansas defense this Saturday. WVU QB Grier, a Heisman Candidate, will eat this Kansas secondary up early and often. Kansas has only one real strength offensively and that is their rushing attack. However, WVU is holding their opponents to a mere 3.4 YPA. Lay the points. PICK: West Virginia -27.5 | |||||||
10-06-18 | Buffalo -7.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
Buffalo was one of the surprise stories heading into last week when they stumbled at home vs Army. Because of that performance, we get this great number against a woeful Central Michigan team. UB is loaded with talent. Led by a top 5 NFL prospect in QB Tyree Jackson, and another first rounder in WR Anthony Johnson, this Bulls team will rebound against a Central Michigan team that struggles to score. PICK: Buffalo -7.5 | |||||||
10-06-18 | Northwestern v. Michigan State -10 | 29-19 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
Northwestern is worse than I expected, and I didn't expect them to be great. They have no obvious strengths an are severely lacking in athleticism. This does not bode well for traveling to East Lansing to face a nasty defense. Michigan State will establish enough on offense to put this away by the mid third quarter and rack up a 20 pt type win. Michigan State gets revenge for their last few losses to Northwestern this weekend. PICK: Michigan State -10 | |||||||
10-04-18 | Colts +11 v. Patriots | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
The New England Patriots looked fantastic in dismantling the Dolphins but this number is a big overreaction to the Patriots exposing the Dolphins as overrated. The Patriots get Julian Edelman back but more important is Rob Gronkowski looks like he will be sitting this one out. With the emergence of running back Sony Michel and the absence of Gronk I don't see the Patriots coming out and throwing it all over the field. Andrew Luck may not be able to throw a hail mary 65 yards in the air but he is still a dangerous quarterback who is extremely smart, can read defenses with the best of them and find the weak spots in any formation. The Patriots defense is still not very good despite how inept the Dolphins looked last week. Even with the absence of T.Y. Hilton the Colts have weapons that can and will hurt the Patriots defense. Look for the Colts to attack N.E. by running the football, the short passing game with tight end Eric Ebron and the receivers running under routes and even trick plays. If the Colts get behind coach Frank Reich and Luck will have no problem throwing 60+ times as well. Patriots win the game but the Colts cover. The Pick: Take The Points and The Colts | |||||||
09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
The Baker Mayfield era begins and count me on his bandwagon. Mayfield is deadly accurate and NFL ready. It's a tough spot, being on the road in your first full game start but the Raiders suck. The Browns have a ton of talent on defense and it's starting to show. Miles Garrett will be all over Carr and this dysfunctional Raiders offense will struggle. Browns should get the outright win in this one. PICK: Browns +3 | |||||||
09-30-18 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
Rosen becomes the 4th rookie to get the nod as a starter. It's tough to expect much out of Arizona this week. They can't run or pass block and they are starting a rookie. It would take a lot of David Johnson to keep them moving the sticks. Seattle hasn't shown much but they should dial up enough on defense to walk out of here with a win. Wilson is still playing well and their defense has a few playmakers that could feast on a bad offense. PICK: Seattle -3 | |||||||
09-30-18 | Eagles -3 v. Titans | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
There isn't much to like about the Titans thus far and it won't look any better on Sunday as they face a tall task in defending super bowl champion Eagles. Philly still has a strong defense and I expect their offense to continue to improve with the return of Wentz. 3 points is more than fair in a game where one team is clearly more talented in every phase of the game. PICK: Eagles -3 | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Fitzmagic is starting to show signs of cracking. Although the Bucs still threw all over the field they step way up in competetion and with Winston breathing down is neck, Ryan Fitzpatrick is in for a customary meltdown. The Bears defense is legit and they will cause problems at home. The Bucs can't stop anyone, including this somehwat pedestrian offense of the Bears. Chicago controls this game from start to finish. PICK: Bears - 3 | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals +4 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Looks like I'm backing the Bengals again this week. There is a lot to like about the Falcons but these points are too good too pass up. There is a lot to like about the Cincy defense and they should make enough plays to make Ryan and company work. Atlanta will have their hands full with Green, Eifert and Boyd and they can't seem to get it together on defense. They will get their points but so will the Bengals. PICK: Bengals +4 | |||||||
09-29-18 | Stanford +6 v. Notre Dame | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 31 m | Show | |
In one of the best match ups of the week, Stanford travels to Notre Dame following their huge comeback win against Oregon. Notre Dame has been very good this year as well. Look, I like Notre Dame a lot and think they have edges in key areas but this is way too many points to be laying in what is a very competitive series. Stanford has gone into this game two straight times as road dogs and won both outright. Not sure if this happens Saturday but more than willing to take the points. PICK: Stanford +6 | |||||||
09-29-18 | Florida +7.5 v. Mississippi State | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show | |
Florida travels to Mississippi State as a touchdown + underdog. Make no mistake, Florida has not been good this year. They have failed to impress, particularly in an embarrassing loss to Kentucky. However, they are a reasonably talented team and have done a decent job upfront, protecting the QB and run blocking. Miss State has a high powered offense but was shut down last week by Kentucky and their stud defender, Josh Allen, who proved more than they could handle. This game should be a dogfight and be decided late. Take the points. PICK: Florida +7.5 | |||||||
09-29-18 | Virginia +6 v. NC State | 21-35 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a matchup of strength vs strength. Ryan Finley has been great throwing the ball for NC State, albeit versus lesser competition. Virginia has really done well stopping the pass thus far only allowing 55% completion rate. I expect this game to be close with Virginia having enough success on offense to take this into the 4th quarter and have a chance for the win. We will gladly gobble up the points as the home underdog in this spot. PICK: Virginia +6 | |||||||
09-27-18 | North Carolina +18 v. Miami-FL | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
The Miami Hurricanes host North Carolina in the ACC opener for both teams and this number looks a little high to me. Miami coach Mark Richt hasn't named a starting QB for this one but he seems dead set on replacing Malik Rozier with redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry. Perry played a good game last week against Florida International but playing a nationally televised night game against Carolina is a different animal and Miami doesn't have the offensive firepower to overcome freshman mistakes. North Carolina finally got their first win last week against Pitt and looked pretty good doing it. Thursday will be the first time this season they have their full roster available as the players suspended for the first 4 games will back in uniform after the sneaker scandal. Look for the Tar Heels to play their best game of the season and easily cover the 18 point spread. The Pick: Take The Points and North Carolina. | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Along with the Rams and the Chiefs, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs are the talk of the early NFL season. Beating the Saints and Eagles in the first two weeks will do that. Pittsburgh is a mess with LeVeon Bell on the trade block and Antonio Brown disgruntled with his lack of production. 1 game in the NFL can change everything and this will be one of those games. Fitzpatrick may have more weapons than he's ever had but he's still the mistake prone QB he's always been. Not only did Pittsburgh have an extra day to prepare for the Bucs deep passing game, but a big reason why the Chiefs carved up Pittsburgh's secondary last week was cornerback Joe Haden's absence. Haden will be back in action and will help slow down DeSean Jackson and the Bucs attack. Pittsburgh goes into Tampa and gets their first win. The Pick: Take the points and the Steelers. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots -6.5 v. Lions | 10-26 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Not gonna lie, this game is simple guys. The Pats are coming off a humiliating loss to the Jags and they get to face Matt Patricia and the lowly Lions. Look for a pretty easy win today with Brady getting back on track and venting some of his frustrations at Detroit's expense. PICK: Patriots -6.5 | |||||||
09-23-18 | Cowboys v. Seahawks +1.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Neither of these teams has looked particularly promising this year. What a difference from a couple years ago. This bet basically comes down to the fact that Dallas is terrible offensively. Their pass rush may get to Wilson, but he has enough in the tank to make some big plays and beat a Dallas team that doesn't play well on the road. Seattle may not be what they once were but it's still a tough place to play which doesn't bode well for an underwhelming cowboys team. PICK: Seattle +1.5 | |||||||
09-23-18 | Bengals +3 v. Panthers | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
The Bengals are one of the better AFC teams this year. Their defense is strong, especially the front seven and their offense is humming. While they are missing Mixon today, they were likely going to have to rely on heavily on the pass against a stout Panthers run defense. There are things to like about the Panthers but overall their offense isn't consistent enough to really move the ball. The way they will need to win is big plays behind Cam's big arm and running. Don't see that being enough today. Take the points. PICK: Bengals +3 | |||||||
09-23-18 | Packers -2.5 v. Redskins | 17-31 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
The Redskins have showed early signs of a team not exactly knowing what they are trying to do. After last season's eye opening performance by Alex Smith, one in whihc he actually threw down the field, the skins let Cousins go for him. Now Smith is back to dink and dunk and they don't appear to have any offensive identity. Green Bay is no great shakes defensively but this Washington team can't score with them. Rodgers is too much in this spot, even if he is hobbled. Catching it at less than a FG is a bonus too. PICK: Green Bay -2.5 | |||||||
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -2 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
This might be the match up of the day. Two teams that have high powered offenses and are expected to be in the playoffs. The line opened with the Falcons being favored by 5, which is about where it should be. The fact that the line has gone to 2 is both baffling and potentially profitable for us. I would consider this an even game on a neutral field. Give me Atlanta at home and the edge goes way towards the Falcons. The Saints simply aren't the same on the road. PICK: Atlanta -2 | |||||||
09-22-18 | Arkansas v. Auburn -29.5 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 10 m | Show | |
This might be the blowout of the day. Arkansas is coming off a game where they got smoked at home vs North Texas. Now they travel to an angry Auburn team that is loaded with talent, coming off a loss to LSU. Auburn will pour it on early and often, possibly scoring 55+ and Arkansas will have no answers. Jarrett Stidham goes off and so does this Tigers defense as Auburn takes out their frustrations. PICK: Auburn -29.5 | |||||||
09-22-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. White Sox | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
The Cubs got crushed last night as the Brewers moved to within a game and half of the Central lead. This game almost feels like a must win if the Cubs want to stay away from that Wild Card game. I don't like taking the run line but the Cubs have the clear pitching advantage and this game s the right situation. What better player to give he ball to than 3 time World Series champ John Lester. Lester cruises, the Cubs offense come alive against Lucas Giolito and they cover the 1.5. Take The Cubs on the run Line. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Tulane v. Ohio State -36.5 | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
For the first time this season, Urban Meyer will be on the sidelines for Ohio State and this is just the matchup he needs to start feeling good. Tulane has been pretty decent thus far but they are taking a huge step up this week and it won't be pretty. Ohio State will look to run up the score and should score 50+ on Tulane. The Buckeye defense will be without Bosa, their D-line stud but have plenty of talent tomake up for it. Thier QB, Haskins has been lighting it up and that won't stop Saturday. The Tulane secondary is a bit of a joke in this spot. PICK: Ohio State - 36.5 | |||||||
09-22-18 | Georgia -14 v. Missouri | Top | 43-29 | Push | 0 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
I have been a big supporter of Missouri this season. I think Drew Lock and his weapons can be very dangerous. The Tigers don't have a great defense though and that will be a HUGE problem against a very talented Georgia team. Georgia hasn't had too put in much of an effort this year but they will be ready for this one. This step up in class is way too much and I see Georgia winning by 3+ TD. PICK: Georgia -14 | |||||||
09-22-18 | Minnesota +1.5 v. Maryland | 13-42 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 26 m | Show | |
Minnesota travels to Maryland on Saturday in what appears to be a pretty evenly matched game on paper. In reality, Maryland is far worse than they showed in that early win over Texas. Minnesota will slow the Maryland running game enough to make the Terps try to throw the ball. This is where they struggle. Tyler Johnson is a huge weapon for the Gophers and he figures to play a major role in their offense. Maryland has no one who can cover him. The better team wins outright on Saturday as Minnesota beats Maryland on the road. PICK: Minnesota +1.5 | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Jets came out of the gate strong, and that bodes well for their future especially with highly touted rookie QB Sam Darnold as their leader. Their defense, especially the secondary looks fast and physical. Offensively, the weapons are underrated. I particularly like Enunwa and Anderson. Darnold looks like a rookie, with both good and bad, but certainly encouraging. The Browns have had a strange start to the season. I'm sure they are disappointed that all they walked away with is a tie and a loss but there is no shame in losing in New Orleans, nor tying Pittsburgh, who has OWNED them over the years. While their future rests squarely on the shoulders of #1 pick, Baker Mayfield, this season (at least for now) is going to be Tyrod Taylor. The defense has a lot of talent ( albeit a sub par coach in Williams) and they should put it together tonight. Even though I think the Jets are slightly ahead of schedule, this looks to be Cleveland's first win. Taylor will limit mistakes and make enough plays to get the Browns to 20+ points and that should be enough to cover this modest number. The Jets numbers look good, but Detroit was horrible in that opening game and that has skewed the defensive stats to this point. While laying a few pts with Cleveland seems crazy, that's what we are doing tonight. PICK: Browns -3 | |||||||
09-16-18 | Giants +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 4 m | Show |
Dallas is even worse off than I anticipated, which says a lot because I didn't think it would go well. Their offense doesn't seem to have a plan and even when they do, they can't execute. The line is good but not what it was and Zeke can't get it done alone. The Giants faced a tough take week one vs the Jags who have arguably the best defense in football. They should look better this week with Beckham and Barkley having nice outings. I will gladly gobble up these points in what should be in outright win PICK: GIANTS +3 | |||||||
09-16-18 | Patriots -1 v. Jaguars | 20-31 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 13 m | Show | |
Give me the Patriots at a virtual pickem any day of the week. This is not a look-ahead type game at all and I fully expect BB and his boys to be fired up for this one. The Pats basically have the blueprint on how to throw on the Jags but more importantly, their defense will be much more effective than it was in the playoffs last year. Bortles will struggle and their overrated running game can't carry them to enough points to stay with the Pats. Even if the Jags D really shows up, the Patriots are good for a 20+ PICK: Patriots -1 | |||||||
09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams -13 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 31 m | Show | |
This isn't a typical Ryan Worden play. In fact, this is as square as it gets. But sometimes the public is right. This is one of those rare times I back a double digit NFL favorite ( they typically don't fare well ). The Rams defense is nasty. I mean NASTY. This will likely be Bradford's last game assuming Rosen is ready because it wont be pretty. Look for the Rams to coast in this one to a 3+ TD win PICK: Rams -13 | |||||||
09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins -5.5 | 21-9 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 3 m | Show | |
Still not sold on Luck. He just isn't the same on some throws. We faded the Colts last week and will again Sunday. This Redskins squad is better than most think. I actually have a pretty large play on their season total ( over 7 ) as well. Alex Smith may not be the most exciting QB, but he knows how to win and they really seem to be running the ball well. Look for the Skins to take care of business at home. PICK: Redskins -5.5
| |||||||
09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 35 m | Show | |
The Chiefs new offense, behind Mahomes sure looks like a high powered unit and the Steelers really couldn't have played much worse. But this my friends is why we get this beautiful point spread. Week 2 is overreactions everywhere. Big Ben has sucked on the road for years. He is completely different at home. The Chiefs have a horrific defense as evidenced by Rivers doing whatever he wanted. Mahomes is going to get a rude awakening and the Steelers are going to score big in Pitt. PICK: Steelers -4.5 | |||||||
09-15-18 | Missouri -6 v. Purdue | 40-37 | Loss | -102 | 49 h 46 m | Show | |
Purdue is exactly what we thought they would be. Uninspiring on offense and mediocre defensively. Losing to Eastern Michigan and Northwestern at home sure put a damper on any expectations they might have had for this year. Missouri, led by NFL prospect Drew Lock will get revenge from their embarrassing 35-3 loss last year as they pour it on scoring 30+ as WR Emanuel Hall lights up the Boilermakers secondary. PICK: Missouri -6 | |||||||
09-15-18 | Houston -1.5 v. Texas Tech | 49-63 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 48 m | Show | |
In what may be the shootout of the weekend, we turn our attention to the road team in this spot. Houston is flat out dangerous on offense and there is no clear way Tech can slow them down. The difference here is Houston actually has some defensive play makers, particularly stud DT Ed Oliver who should cause major problems for Texas Tech. Look for Houston to be up for this game and show the nation why they are now the better Texas team. PICK: Houston -1.5 | |||||||
09-15-18 | LSU +10.5 v. Auburn | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 45 h 16 m | Show | |
LSU travels to Auburn on this classic SEC clash on Saturday. This match up is interesting because LSU hasn't shown much in the way of offense but their defense looks as stout as ever. For me, it comes down to 10.5 simply being way too many points. Look for LSU to shut down the Auburn running game, making them one dimensional. While Auburn obviously has the better passing attack, with Stidham at QB, that alone won't be enough to cover this double digit number. LSU puts up a fight. PICK: LSU +10.5 | |||||||
09-15-18 | SMU v. Michigan -35.5 | 20-45 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 22 m | Show | |
Michigan is a different team at home and it will show Saturday as they take out their frustrations on this hapless SMU squad. SMU is supposed to be known for their passing game but even that has struggled - last week totalling a paltry 111 yards vs TCU. Michigan looks like they may actually have some receivers and a competent passing game this year. This is a big number but Michigan will open up the passing game after establishing their punishing ground attack. Look for Patterson to hit some big plays early and Michigan to hang 50 on SMU. PICK: Michigan -35.5 | |||||||
09-15-18 | Florida State v. Syracuse +3 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 41 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm all in on Syracuse signal caller Eric Dungey. Their offense should have no problem moving the ball against this confused and toothless FSU defense. This is a big home game for Syracuse who has been searching for a decent football team for a while now. Expect the dome to be rocking. FSU is simply terrible. Yes, I realize they are theoretically the more talented team but they are not motivated and just escaped Samford after getting mauled by VT. Syracuse may give up some points in this one but will prevail and go to 3-0. PICK: Syracuse +3 | |||||||
09-13-18 | Ravens -1 v. Bengals | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
Last year the Ravens, led by Flacco were woeful on offense. This was partly due to Flacco never being fully healthy and even more so the fact that they simply had too few weapons. This offseason has seen Flacco look much better and the addition of 3 important weapons in, Snead, Crabtree and Brown. The Bengals should also be much better this year but they are overmatched tonight. Baltimore will continue to impress on both sides of the ball and get the win tonight in what is a revenge game ( Bengals knocked them out of the playoffs in the final game last year). PICK: Ravens -1
| |||||||
09-10-18 | Rams -4.5 v. Raiders | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
The Rams shot up to the top of the NFC West last season and look to be even better this year. With Jared Goff in year 3, Todd Gurley fresh and ready to go after sitting out the preseason and Brandin Cooks joining an already good receiving corps the Rams offense looks to be explosive tonight against a Raider defense that was already suspect before they traded the best defensive player in the NFL to Chicago. The matchup on the other side of the ball is also a mismatch. This Rams defense looks like they will be better than last season with some fantastic off season additions and the Raiders haven't done Derek Carr any favors with the weapons they have put around him. The Rams cruise on opening night. Lay the points and take The Rams. | |||||||
09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -7 | 48-17 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lione have the distinction of having the most regular season wins since 2014 without a playoff during that time. That means that they're good enough to win some football games but aren't quite good enough to get over the hump and join the upper echelon of teams. Just good enough will be plenty good in this opener against the Jets. With all the hype in NY surrounding Sam Darnold everyone needs to remember that he's about to become the youngest QB since the merger to start opening week and there will be growing pains. Darnold may turn out to be the The QB the Jets have dreamed of but going to Detroit on MNF with that offensive line, a lack of weapons (especially with an injury to possession WR Jermaine Kearse) and a defense that will struggle to get to the quarterback will be too much to overcome. Lay the points and take the Lions. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Cowboys v. Panthers -2.5 | 8-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 52 m | Show | |
Siding with Carolina boils down to me having very little faith in the Cowboys offense. Prescott relies on the run game, especially since he has such an obvious lack of weapons. The problem on Sunday will be that staunch Carolina run defense. Expect the Panthers to really force the ball out of Zeke's hands and into Dak's arm. On the other side of the ball, Carolina should be able to put up 20+ which is plenty in a game like this. There are more questions than answers in this offensive unit (starting with Newton's inconsistency but we lay less than a FG and take the home team in this spot. PICK: Carolina -2.5 | |||||||
09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | 38-28 | Loss | -130 | 52 h 3 m | Show | |
Every year I like the Chargers and they manage to screw it up. They may very well do so again but this team is LOADED. The bookends of Bosa and Ingram are the best in the league and they are going to make Mahomes have a tough start. The Chargers also sport a very solid secondary. Offensively, Rivers still looks great and he has weapons everywhere. The Chiefs, too, have a lot of firepower. Oddly, though, it's almost like the national narrative is that Mahomes is already a star. He had a lot of issues to work on and I'm not ready to crown him quite yet. Let's see how he does against a very good LA defense. The Chiefs may make some big plays with Hill and Watkins but it won't be enough. 3 is a gift and we will take it! PICK: Chargers -3 | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals +3 v. Colts | Top | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show |
While the long anticipated wait for Andrew Luck is over, this doesn't solve a lot of the other problems the Colts have. Even if Luck plays well, it should take him some time to find that old form. Unfortunately for the Colts, they are running into the wrong team on Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a bad year, riddled with injuries and inconsistent play. That should all change this year. Dalton looked great in the preseason/camp and he is a full arsenal of weapons including Eifert back from injury and Ross ( the first round WR that played under 20 snaps last year). I really, really like this Bengals team. I expect the D-line, mainly Dunlap and Atkins to really be in Luck's face all game and steal this one on the road. PICK: Bengals +3 |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |