Marc David’s 2016 NFL Football Preview – NFC South

Written on August 19th, 2016 by Jesse Schule in
NFL

The Panthers dominated the division going 15-1 with Newton winning the MVP before losing in the Super Bowl. The Falcons won six of their first seven games and then imploded in the second half going 2-9 the rest of the way. The highlight of their season was beating a 15-0 panther team.

The Saints had possibly one of the worst defenses ever in an NFL season as they set a record for most passing TD’s allowed. It didn’t seem to matter how well drew Brees played, he couldn’t count on the defense to hold a lead.

The Bucs had a better year in 2015 than in 2014 led by rookie Jameis Winston 22 TD’s 15 picks and at one point in the year were 6- 6 but then finished the season with four straight losses, missing out on the playoffs.

1 .Carolina Panthers

Odds: – 227 to win NFC SOUTH– + 505 to win NFC CONFERENCE — + 925 to win SUPER BOWL
Record in 2015: 15-1- Straight Up – 11-5 Against The Spread

Projection: Newton can run and pass and his 636 yards on the ground was second on the team. His play action passing was superb as he completed 63% of his attempts and throwing 13 TD’s. He also led the team in rushing TD’s with 10 and had very good success with his downfield passing game. He will only get better. Stewart was a very good runner and he protected Newton exceptionally well. The Backups Payne and Whittaker both averaged over 4 yards a carry and didn’t fumble the ball.

They have a group of very tall receivers with both Benjamin and Olsen at 6’5″ and Dickson and Funchess 6’4″. The return of Benjamin will make this team better but he needs to have a season like 2014 when he had 1,116 yds receiving which will give them a much better balanced attack.

Olsen is one of the best TE’s in the business being second only to Gronk (Pats) maybe. Their offensive line is very committed to the running game and are one of the best at run blocking. The center and two guards are among the leagues best but the tackles need to do a better job protecting Newton. Was the release of Josh Norman a mistake? Only time will tell and with retired Tillman their secondary has to take a hit. They drafted 3 DB’s to try and compensate but how quickly they learn will tell the story.

The Panthers play enough zone defense that might give them time to fit in and adjust.

2 . Tampa Bay Bucs

Odds: + 680 to win NFC SOUTH– + 4000 to win NFC CONFERENCE — + 9800 to win SUPER BOWL
Record in 2015: 6-10- Straight Up – 7-9 Against The Spread

Projection: Winston is still developing as a young QB. He had a pretty good rookie season where he showed a marked improvement in the second half. He ended up throwing for 4042 yards with 22 TD’s and 5 picks. he was inconsistent at times but all and all he had a good year with the team feeling good about his improvement.

RB’s Martin and Sims might be the best one – two punch in the league. With Sims running for over 500 yards and over 500 yards in the air he turned into one of the best third down backs and compliments Martin’s 1402 rushing yards very well.

The receiving corps has a lack of depth but the two WR’s Evans and Jackson who are both 6′ 5″, pose major problems for defenses. But with a lack of good backups and just average TE’s they have to be careful of injuries. Their offensive line was not very good at pass protection especially the left side but Marpet and Dotson on the right side are the line’s strength provided Dotson avoids injuries that kept him out too much last season.

The defensive front are way too inconsistent and a lot of the starters and reserves just lack the talent to take them to the next level. MacDonald would be better in a rotation and Spence has never played at a high level his whole career. The secondary ids another weakness in the defense but they signed Grimes who has seen better days.

Safeties McDougal and Conte are just dependable so the Bucs will have to rely on the younger players to step up if they want to see any improvement.

3 . New Orleans Saints

Odds: + 745 to win NFC SOUTH– + 3700 to win NFC CONFERENCE — + 8800 to win SUPER BOWL
Record in 2015: 7-9- Straight Up – 8-7-1 Against The Spread

Projection: The Saints haven’t made the playoffs since 2013 and Brees is not getting any younger. He has been consistent for years and a great passer. He excels at deep passes and completes them wit one of the best rates in the league. They are always one pass away from a score.

RB Ingram will get most of the work as he is very reliable both running and receiving. His backup Spiller has been in decline since 2012 and rookie Lasco is looking to replace him if he can avoid drops that hurt him in college.

Cooks leads the receivers and has great hands as he proved as a second year player when he only dropped 6 passes of 143 passes over the last two seasons. They have a decent offensive line but not great. The best of the bunch is probably Armstead who is very good at pass and run blocking. Lelito is a good run blocker but he needs to get his pass blocking up.

Their defense couldn’t stop the run and were a league worst 4.9 per carry. That opened it up for opposing QBs no matter how good or bad they were Only DE Jordan was playing at an acceptable level with the LBs all needing to improve if they plan on holding any lead Brees can get them. There were no major changes to a secondary that sowed flashes of being better than they were. They will need help up front to take pressure off and that could be an issue.

4. Atlanta Falcons

Odds: + 620 to win NFC SOUTH– + 3000 to win NFC CONFERENCE — + 7000 to win SUPER BOWL
Record in 2015: 8-8- Straight Up – 6-10 Against The Spread

Projection: Matt Ryan has always been a middle of the road QB and he did that last season. He led the team out of the gate quickly with six wins in their first seven games but couldn’t carry the team on his shoulders all the way to the playoffs. His receivers had the fourth most dropped passes (37) in the league and he threw for 22 TD’s and 15 picks while back up Schaub didn’t live up to expectations again.

RB Freeman returns after a 1000 yard season with 73 receptions. but only FB de Marco had a good year and most of the time it was his lead blocking that stood out. Backup Coleman ran for 392 yards but was a bust catching the ball out of the backfield.

Jones had an excellent year at receiver with 1871 yards but the rest of the bunch were invisible. They upgraded with the signing of Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati) while getting rid of White, Hester and Hankerson. They retained both TE’s but are looking forward to the play of rookie Hooper (Stanford). The Offensive line played well last season and 4 of the five were very good so they signed C Alex Mack to upgrade that last spot.

They will be relying mostly rookies and second year players in the defense but are expecting a nice improvement over last season and good play from newcomers Jones and Campbell. The secondary is pretty weak and will need a good pass rush to allow them to develop. With Collins being suspended for four games a shakeup in the secondary slowed down plans to develop the rest at their positions.

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Clemson vs Syracuse	Syracuse +7 -105	Free	31-14	Loss	-105	Show
This is a free play on CUSE. The Orange have given Clemson all they can handle over the years, covering in five of the last six head to head meetings. Last year they took a double digit lead into the 4th quarter at Clemson, but injuries to QB Garrett Schraeder and RB Sean Tucker prevented them from running the ball down the stretch and protecting that lead. A soft schedule so far allows Syracuse to come into this game healthy, and that might make a huge difference here. This is a dream crusher spot for Clemson, who have no chance to reach their goals after suffering their second loss of the season last week against Florida State. GL, Jesse Schule
Luton Town vs Everton	Everton -160	Premium	2-1	Loss	-160	Show
This is a 4* play on Everton. It took a miracle to avoid relegation, but Everton is back in the Premier League and they come into this weekend's match with a record of 3-1-1 in their last five matches in all competitions. They host Luton Town, who have struggled since being promoted. Luton has scored just three goals in their first five Premier League matches. Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored in Everton's win over Aston Villa last week. He is only 26 years old, and despite struggling the last two seasons he did score 29 goals in 2019-2021. GL, Jesse Schule
South Carolina vs Tennessee	Tennessee -11½ -110	Top Premium	20-41	Win	100	Show
This is a 10* play on TEN. This is a huge revenge game for the Vols after they got lit up for over 60 points in a loss to the Gamecocks last year. This is also a spot where we can buy low on the Vols, as people are still down on them after they lost at Florida, and it's a sell high spot on South Carolina after they played Georgia tough and Spencer Rattler completed 90% of his passes in a win over Mississippi State last week. Rattler has been playing well so far, but history tells us that when the going gets tough he can be "rattled". This looks like a tough spot for the Gamecocks, and we aren't going to be surprised if Rattler gets rattled. GL, Jesse Schule
South Florida vs Navy	UNDER 53½ -110	Premium	44-30	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Under. The new rules in college football season don't seem to have had a significant effect on totals for most teams, but the exception might be the likes of service academies and the likes of Iowa, Nebrasksa. This total sits at 53.5, and Navy has yet to play a game that has seen that much scoring. Early weather forecasts are calling for wind and rain in Anapolis on Saturday. Perfect conditions for a traditional ground and pound game with long slow drives that chew up the clock and result in a low scoring battle. GL, Jesse Schule
Washington vs Arizona	OVER 68½ -110	Premium	31-24	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Over. The Huskies are the #1 passing offense in the country, and they are averaging over 49 points per game. The Huskies beat Arizona by a score of 49-39 last year, and the total for that game was 71.5. A lower number here, but I don't see how Washington scores less than 50. Both these teams want to play fast and air it out, and another high score should be expected. Last week the Bears scored 32 against Washington, I think we can count on Arizona scoring 20-30 here at home. Looking at 55-24 Huskies ... GL, Jesse Schule
Alabama vs Mississippi State	UNDER 49 -110	Premium	40-17	Loss	-110	Show
This is a 4* play on Under. Alabama is coming off a dominant effort on defense, holding Ole Miss to just 10 points in a 24-10 home win. Nick Saban came in with a plan, and he executed with precision. He utilized the skill set of Jalen Milroe as a dual threat, as he ran the ball almost as much as he threw it. Overall Alabama ran 21 passing plays and 45 running plays. They head to Starkeville this week, and they beat the Bulldogs by a score of 30-6 last year. That was with Bryce Young at QB for Alabama, and Will Rogers in the Air Raid. The Bulldogs have abandoned the Air Raid, leaning more on their run game. These teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and I expect that trend to continue here. GL, Jesse Schule

Service	Profit
Dana Lane	$1,479
Scott Rickenbach	$1,196
Jeff Alexander	$840
Jimmy Boyd	$728
John Ryan	$654
Dan Kaiser	$651
Ricky Tran	$650
Will Rogers	$496
Rocky Atkinson	$321
Nick Parsons	$314

Marc David’s 2016 NFL Football Preview – NFC South

1 .Carolina Panthers

2 . Tampa Bay Bucs

3 . New Orleans Saints

4. Atlanta Falcons

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