09-26-15 |
Utah v. Oregon -13.5 | | 62-20 |
Loss | -110 | 89 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The Ducks are ranked outside the Top 10 after losing at Michigan State in Week 2, but they still look like the team to beat in the PAC-12. They host the Utah Utes this Saturday, and they are favored by roughly two TDs. Oregon won 51-27 at Utah last season, and the Utes will be hard pressed to earn a better result on the road this week with their starting quarterback banged up.
The Utes are being quiet about the status of Travis Wilson, who missed last week's game with a shoulder injury. He threw for 297 yards for two TDs and a pair of INTs in the home loss to Oregon last year, and he has thrown for just 286 yards an an INT in two games this season.
Vernon Adams could have played last week, but the Ducks didn't need him in a 61-28 win over Georgia State. Jeff Lockie threw for 228 yards and a pair of TDs on 23-of-31 passing in the victory. All signs are that Adams will get the start here, but I think this game will be a blowout regardless of who plays quarterback for Oregon.
The Ducks have too many weapons, and I just don't see the Utes scoring enough to keep this one close.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona +3.5 | | 56-30 |
Loss | -115 | 60 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 64 | Top | 56-30 |
Loss | -106 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCLA@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury. With Rosen struggling, expect UCLA to lean on it's running game, burning up the clock in the process. These teams only scored 10 points in the first half of last year's game, and I see no reason for a sky high total here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
Texas A&M -6.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-21 |
Win | 100 | 131 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies defense dominated in a Week 1 win over Arizona State, and the man everyone is talking about is Myles Garrett. Some are calling him the next Jadeveon Clowney, while others are saying that he could be better than 2013 #1 overall pick. He sacked the Arizona State quarterback (Mike Bercovici) twice, and terrorized him the entire game. We already expected the Aggies to be an offensive powerhouse, but if their defense can continue to play like it did in Week 1, this team will be a legitimate contender.
The 3-0 Aggies are in great shape with Kyle Allen at quarterback. He's thrown for 594 yards with nine TDs and just two picks. They take on the Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium, and Arkansas is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Texas Tech. That comes a week after they lost at home to Toledo, and Brett Bielema's team appears to be in complete disarray.
The Aggies have won three straight versus Arkansas since 2012, by an average margin of more than 20 points.
Take A&M. GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
TCU v. Texas Tech +8 | Top | 55-52 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
TCU is on UPSET ALERT! They scored 56 points in a win over SMU on Saturday, but the Horned Frogs are a mess on defense. They gave up 37 points at home against the Mustangs, and since they defeated Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, they've had to replace their entire defense, with not one starter remaining. DE Mike Tuaua was suspended indefinitely on Monday after his arrest for assault and robbery.
They've struggled on the road dating back to last year, failing to cover in a 23-17 win at Minnesota in their season opener, and beating unranked Kansas and West Virginia by a combined four points in the second half of last season. They did score a record 82 points in a blowout win at home over the Red Raiders last year, which sets up a classic revenge spot here for Kliff Kingsbury's team.
The Red Raiders are also 3-0, coming off an upset win on the road against the Razorbacks. While Arkansas is struggling, a double digit win on the road versus an SEC opponent is something that should raise a few eyebrows. Texas Tech has the ability to score enough points to keep up with TCU, with the offense in the hands of sophomore quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He's thrown for over 1000 yards with nine TDs and three picks so far in 2015.
We should see a shootout here in Texas, and when the smoke clears, I wouldn't be surprised if the home team pulls off the outright upset win
Take Texas Tech.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
BYU +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 0-31 |
Loss | -106 | 127 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the BYU Cougars.
The Cougars nearly shocked the UCLA Bruins in California last Saturday, but they allowed a last minute TD, falling to 2-1 on the season. They have another tough road game this Saturday in Michigan, facing the 2-1 Wolverines. This looks like a very tough matchup for offensively anemic Wolverines though, with their struggling quarterback going up against a defense that has picked off opposing quarterbacks six times in the last two weeks, despite the fact that both games came against ranked teams. They are tied for the FBS lead with seven total picks.
Jake Rudock has been picked off five times in three games, and he only threw for 123 yards against the UNLV Rebels at home last week. The Cougars are in great shape with freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum, who has the highest completion percentage for a BYU quarterback since Max Hall in 2009. "He's amazing," coach Bronco Mendenhall said. "Road games are not too big. Different stadiums, different teams -- he's showing a lot of command for a true freshman."
Michigan hasn't been kind to bettors lately, failing to cover in six of their last seven non-conference games, and eight of their last nine in September. I think they continue to be overrated, and I can't see any reason why they should be laying points here against a ranked opponent.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. Memphis -9.5 | Top | 46-53 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis is off to a 3-0 start to the season, and the Tigers have scored an average of over 50 points per game so far. They host the Cincinnati Bearcats tonight, a team that they really had their way with last year. Memphis went into Cincinnati and beat the Cats by a score of 41-14, and Gunner Kiel struggled, completing just 11-of-27 passes for 216 yards with a TD and an INT.
Kiel might not even play tonight after suffering a head injury against Miami-OH on Saturday. If he can't go, it would be a huge blow to the Bear-Kittens. His backup Hayden Moore completed 7-of-14 passes for 118 yards and a pair of INTs last week. If Kiel plays at less than 100 percent, we could see Moore come in to replace him at some point.
Who starts at quarterback could be the least of their worries though, as the Bear-Kittens were steamrolled for 220 rushing yards against one of the minnows of the MAC last week. Miami-OH averaged 4.4 yards per carry in a losing effort. They have their hands full tonight, facing one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country. Memphis ranks in the Top 10, with 753 yards and 12 TDs on the ground in three games so far. Combine that with a potent passing game led by Paxton Lynch who has thrown for 816 yards and six TDs so far, and he's yet to throw an INT.
I expect the Tigers to tame the Cats here in Memphis.
Take MEMPHIS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
BYU v. UCLA UNDER 60 | Top | 23-24 |
Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.
The Bruins beat UNLV last week, but Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. They face a Cougars defense that has looked pretty solid during a 2-0 start, with a total of four INTs on opposing quarterbacks so far.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under, and the Bruins have trended under at a rate of 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Take UNDER,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Ole Miss +7 v. Alabama | Top | 43-37 |
Win | 100 | 130 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels scored a potential game winning TD at home against Auburn last year, that would have put them at 8-1 through their first nine games, and still on track to win the conference. The go-ahead score was overturned after video review however, and Mississippi would lose to Auburn by a score of 35-31. They also lost star wideout Laquon Treadwell who suffered a broken leg on the play, which caused him to fumble the ball in the endzone.
That's how close this team came to appearing in the SEC Championship game against an Alabama team that they defeated earlier in the season. The Rebels ranked #1 nationally in scoring defense in 2014, and they return eight starters on both sides of the ball here this season.
The Rebels held Derrick Henry to just 37 yards on 17 carries in last year's game, and Blake Sims threw for 228 yards on 19-of-31 passing with no TDs and an INT. Nick Saban has yet to decide on a replacement for Sims, as Jake Coker and Cooper Bateman have split the workload so far. Neither has impressed, and last week they each threw interceptions at home against Middle Tennessee.
Mississippi's quarterback Chad Kelly threw for 346 yards and four TDs in a win over Fresno State last week. The Rebels have scored 149 points in the first two weeks, and that's a great sign for a team that owns the SEC's best defense. I think Kelly may be able to take advantage of an inexperienced Alabama secondary, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rebels win this game outright. Take Ole Miss. GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Nebraska v. Miami (Fla) -160 | | 33-36 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Hurricanes.
Nebraska beat up on South Alabama last Saturday, winning by a score of 48-9. That came after a shocking home loss to BYU, losing on a Haily Mary as time expired. This will be their first road game of the season, and they won last year's meeting by a score of 41-31. Brad Kaaya threw a pair of INTs in that game, and Ameer Abdullah ran for 229 yards and a pair of TDs.
Kaaya is more experienced here this season, coming in with 460 yards with three TDs and no interceptions. He finished last season strong, with 12 TDs and just two picks in his final six games. The Canes won't have to worry about Abdullah this time around, as he's moved on to the NFL, and Nebraska's running game hasn't looked the same without him.
The Cornhuskers defense has allowed it's first two opponents to throw for a combined 692 yards, and it's a tough ask to slow down Kaaya at home in Miami. He's 6-2 with 20 TDs and four INTs in his eight career starts at Sun Life Stadium.
I like the Canes to avenge last year's loss in Lincoln.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Northwestern v. Duke UNDER 49 | Top | 19-10 |
Win | 100 | 93 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NW@DUKE to go UNDER the total.
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.
Rather than pick a side though, I think the better play is on the total. Neither team is prolific on offense, and both teams take pride in playing strong defense. They have played four times since 2002, and not one of those games came close to reaching the total here for today's game. The Wildcats have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight non-conference games, and seven straight in September. Duke has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
UNLV v. Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 7-28 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNLV@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines won big at home against Oregon State last week, and their defense continues to impress. I'm still a little hesitant to back this Michigan team as a big favorite though, as it's not going to be easy to run up the score without any serious threat in the passing game. Jake Ruddock didn't get into the endzone in the home opener, throwing for just 180 yards and an INT on 18-of-26 passing. He's now throwing twice as many picks (4) as TDs (2).
The Rebels are coming off a home loss to UCLA, but their defense gave the Bruins quarterbacks a bit of a tough time. Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. The Rebels chose to run the ball 43 times, picking up 181 yards but only managing a late field goal to avoid being shutout.
UNLV is likely at risk of being shutout again here in the Big House, where the Wolverines have seen the total go under in four straight. Michigan has also failed to reach the total in five straight non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-15 |
Clemson -5.5 v. Louisville | | 20-17 |
Loss | -105 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Clemson Tigers.
At first glance, a 31-24 loss to an SEC team in Week 1 doesn't look too bad, but Louisville looks significantly worse after a home loss to Houston in Week 2. It's also worth noting that Auburn needed overtime to avoid being upset by an FCS team. The Week 1 loss to Auburn wasn't as close as the score would indicate, as the Cardinal scored two TDs in garbage time in the finale 6 1/2 minutes.
Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combined to throw for 167 yards and an INT on 17-of-33 passing against Auburn. Jackson got another chance against Houston, but was replaced by third stringer Kyle Bolin after throwing a pair of INTs. Louisville coach Bo Pelini has already announced that Bolin will start tonight.
So the Cardinal will send their third string quarterback in to face a tough Clemson defense that ranked first nationally in scoring defense in 2014. The Tigers are in good shape at the quarterback position with a healthy Deshaun Watson. The sophomore was injured in the win over Louisville last year, and Clemson's offense sputtered in his absence. He's completed 77 percent of his passes with five TDs in two games so far in 2015.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Boise State v. BYU UNDER 55 | Top | 24-35 |
Loss | -110 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BSU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
It was a bitter-sweet beginning to the season for the Cougars, who upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass, but lost start quarterback Taysom Hill for the rest of the season. The Cougars host Boise State on Saturday night, and the Broncos looked rather lackluster in a home win over the Washington Huskies.
New quarterback Ryan Finley looked pretty shaky, completing 16-of-26 passes for 129 yards and an interception. The defense did all the heavy lifting though, limiting the Huskies to just 179 total yards.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive battles, and prior to last year's meeting they had gone under in the previous three meetings dating back to 2004. One of those games was the most epic defensive battle I have every seen in college football, when the Broncos won 7-6 on the Blue Turf in 2012.
Tanner Mangum was the hero for BYU last week, throwing for 111 yards and a TD on 7-of-11 passing. He threw a 42 yard strike to Mitch Matthews with one second left on the clock giving the Cougars the win. The freshman has his work cut out for him here this week against a stout Boise State defense, and the Cougars are surely going to miss Taysom Hill.
These teams scored a ton of points in last year's meeting, but both teams have since had to replace their quarterbacks as well as their leading rusher. With both offenses missing that firepower, I think we'll see a far more defensive battle this time around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Rice v. Texas -14 | Top | 28-42 |
Push | 0 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
So everybody is pretty down on Texas after that shellacking at South Bend last weekend, but I think people are reading too much into that one game. After all, it was a road game against a team that is considered by many to be a legitimate playoff contender.
Looking back to last season, most of us will remember that Texas suffered a similar defeat at the hands of BYU in Week 2. What you might not remember is that the following week, they came so very close to upsetting the #12 ranked UCLA Bruins in a neutral site game (albeit in Arlington Texas). In their next game they shutout the Jayhawks in Kansas, winning 23-0.
Returning home with a bee in their bonnet, I expect the Horns to have little trouble punishing a minnow out of the C-USA here on Saturday. They've played Rice 10 times since 1998, winning each game, and covering the spread in five of the last six. They were favored by an average margin of more than four TDs in those games, and here this week they are asked to cover a number less than half that size.
The Owls are 4-10 in their last 14 versus the BIG12, and Texas is 10-3 ATS in it's last 13 versus the C-USA.
Hook 'em Horns.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oklahoma +1 v. Tennessee | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 138 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma Sooners.
This is what I said about the Sooners in my pre-season Power Rankings column: "You might remember that Oklahoma beat Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, and went into last season as one of the favorites to win the National Championship. They were 8-4 last year, with two losses by just a single point. Quarterback Trevor Knight completed just 56% of his passes for 2300 yards with 14 TDs and 12 INTs. It was a disappointing season for Knight, who had thrown for 348 yards and four TDs in the win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. While most people think the BIG12 is a two horse race between Baylor and TCU, the Sooners have a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield, and he could be the missing piece to the puzzle in Norman"
Oklahoma looked impressive in a Week 1 win over Akron, and Mayfield threw for 388 yards with three TDs and no INTs. The defense allowed the Zips to gain just 88 yards in the air, limiting them to just three points. They are on the road at Tennessee this week, and I wasn't impressed with the Vols in Week 1.
While they beat Bowling Green by a score of 59-30, their defense looked pretty damn shaky. Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson threw for 433 yards and a pair of TDs, and the Vols gave up more than 500 total yards to an opponent out of the MAC.
People are high on Tennessee this year, but I think this team is still too young to compete with elite opponents such as Oklahoma, a team that they lost to by 24 points last season.
Take OKLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oregon State +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-35 |
Loss | -110 | 137 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oregon State Beavers.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take ORST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oregon State v. Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 7-35 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORST@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Houston v. Louisville UNDER 54 | Top | 34-31 |
Loss | -110 | 105 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@LOU to go UNDER the total.
Louisville lost 31-24 to Auburn in Week 1, but came away from that game with plenty of positives. They picked off Tigers quarterback Jeremy Johnson three times, limiting him to 131 yards on 11-of-21 passing. Their own offense didn't impress much though, with Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combining to throw for just 167 yards on 17-of-33 passing.
The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-13 home win for the Cardinals, and I expect a similar result here this time around. Houston has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 games versus a team with a losing record, and seven of it's last nine games in September.
The Cardinals have trended under at home at a rate of 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games. I don't think Houston is going to have much success here in Louisville, and I think these teams will struggled to score a combined 50 points. With a total in the mid fifties, I think the boomakers have made a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah OVER 44 | | 14-24 |
Loss | -106 | 90 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on USU@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Utes won a defensive battle at home against Michigan in Week 1 by a score of 24-17. The bookmakers are calling for another low scoring battle here on Friday night against rivals Utah State, but I think the number here is a little too low.
Since 2008 these teams have met four times, and the Utes have won three of those four games. The total in all of those games was set at 50 or higher, and three of those four games went over. The exception was a 27-20 Aggies win in 2012, which is still more points than the total for this game.
Chuckie Keeton did not look sharp at quarterback for the Aggies last week, throwing for just 110 yards and an INT on 16-of-33 passing. He threw for 314 yards and a pair of TDs against Utah the last time these teams met. He also ran the ball for 85 yards and a TD .
The total has gone over in five of the last six meetings in this series, and I'll take a stab at the over with an extremely low total here in this game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 53 | | 42-24 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on OSU@VT to go UNDER the total. The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight. Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14.5 | Top | 42-24 |
Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Virginia Tech.
The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight.
The Buckeyes opened as a double digit favorite here, which is already a tough ask on the road in a tough environment. Now public money has pushed that number up a few points, and now they are asked to cover two TDs. Keep in mind, this team needed double overtime to get past Penn State at Happy Valley, and just barely slipped past the Gophers 31-24 in Minnesota last season. This Hokies defense is a whole different animal, and should not be taken lightly.
The OSU offense could also be slowed by the absence of suspended wide receiver Corey Smith, and injured Noah Brown. Their biggest loss though is defensive end Joey Bosa, who is serving a suspension for violating team rules. Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Texas v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 | Top | 3-38 |
Win | 100 | 392 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEX@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Texas +10 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-38 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Arizona State v. Texas A&M -160 | | 17-38 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies came out of the gates winning five straight in 2014, but went on to lose five of their next seven. Keep in mind though that all of those five losses came to SEC powerhouse teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. They open the 2015 season with a neutral site game versus the Arizona State Sun Devils, who have been one of the better teams in the PAC12 over the last few years.
The Sun Devils had two fewer losses than the Aggies, but all three losses were pretty ugly. They lost at home by a 35 point margin versus UCLA, and then on the road at unranked Oregon State. In the final week of the season they came up short, losing by double-digits at Arizona . I believe this Aggies offense is superior to to all three of those teams, by a country mile.
Defense was a sore spot for the Aggies last year, but there is reason to be optimistic that they will show improvements under new coordinator John Chavis. Kevin Sumlin showed us last year just how well he could draw up a game plan when given unlimited time to scheme away. I think we're going to see Speedy Noil and Kyle Allen hook run a clinic on this Arizona State defense.
Take the Aggies.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74.5 | Top | 56-21 |
Loss | -110 | 84 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAY@SMU to go UNDER the total.
The Baylor Bears have scored more points than any other team in the country over the last two seasons, and that's why we see such a big number here tonight against an inferior opponent. There's no question that this is going to be a blowout, but I think that the bookmakers are being a little too optimistic about just how many points these teams can score in their season opener.
These two teams met in Week 1 last season, and the Bears shutout SMU winning 45-0. That was in Waco, and this time they will travel to Dallas. I don't expect the Mustangs to have much success scoring on Baylor's defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bear's offense show signs of rust with a new starting quarterback here in Week 1.
These teams have played each other 10 times since 1990, and Baylor has won every time. All but one of those games were blowouts, but only once did they combine to score more than 75 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-03-15 |
Michigan v. Utah -5.5 | Top | 17-24 |
Win | 100 | 345 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
Jim Harbaugh will make his coaching debut at Michigan on Thursday night, and he's trying to turn around a program that won just five games last year. One of their losses came at home by a score of 26-10 to Utah. The Wolverines may be hard pressed to see a better result here on the road in Week 1.
The first order of business for Harbaugh will be a focus on protecting the football, as the Wolverines turned the ball over 26 times last year, ranking 101st nationally. He's not tipping his hat as to who will start at quarterback, but neither Jake Ruddock or Shane Morris inspire a lot of confidence (likely why he's keeping it quiet).
The Utes only lost four games last season, and three of those four losses came against ranked teams. They recorded impressive wins against UCLA, USC and Stanford. Utah ranked second in the PAC12 in total defense, allowing an average of just 393 yards per game. They have an experienced quarterback in senior Travis Wilson, who threw for 172 yards and a TD on 14-of-20 passing in the win over Michigan last year. Morris was 4-for-13 for 32 yards and an INT for the Wolverines in that game.
While I don't doubt that Michigan will improve in 2015, I don't expect it to happen in Week 1 on the road against an experience Utah team that beat them handily at home last year.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-12-15 |
Ohio State v. Oregon -6 | Top | 42-20 |
Loss | -110 | 130 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Oregon Ducks. I actually have a pending futures bet on the Ducks at 10-1 to win the National Championship, and that pick was published on my Facebook page back in July: AS PUBLISHED JULY 14, 2014 This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks to with the National Championship. The new playoff format should be a huge benefit to a team like Oregon. Remember that Alabama was our national championship team in 2013, finishing the season with the exact same record as Oregon. The Tide played Notre Dame in the Championship Game, despite the fact that the Irish were nowhere near the second best team in the country. The Ducks played K-State in the Fiesta Bowl, winning easily by a score of 35-17. After a disappointing 2013-2014 season that ended with quarterback Marcus Mariota playing hurt with a knee injury, the Ducks look stronger than ever heading into the 2014-2015 season. Mariota is back, and he’s one of the Heisman favorites. He will be joined by All-American center Hroniss Grasu, and junior Byron Marshall who led the Pac-12 in rushing last year. The Ducks have an embarrassment of riches with talent on both sides of the ball, and coach Mark Helfrich should have a good handle on things in his second season since taking over for Chip Kelly. Of the handful of elite teams in college football, I think Oregon has the fewest potential question marks. You never know what you’re going to get from Famous Jameis (he could be in jail before season’s end). Nick Marshall was arrested on drug charges over the summer, while Alabama needs to replace A.J. McCarron. Take OREGON. GL, Jesse Schule Also Published July 14:
This is a 10* play on Marcus Mariota to win the Heisman. In my mind there is no doubt that it’s Mariota and not Jamies Winston that is the best quarterback in the country, and I believe the Ducks are a far better team than Florida State. The Ducks also have a schedule loaded with cupcakes that will allow Mariota to put up some big numbers against the likes of California, Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona. Of course it’s not just a two horse race, but with Mariota likely to put up “video game” type numbers, he’s the clear favorite in my mind. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-01-15 |
Florida State v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 20-59 |
Win | 100 | 590 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
While the Seminoles have won 25 straight games dating back three seasons, they haven't been anywhere near the same team this year that they were in previous years. This team has been flirting with disaster since Week 1, when it needed a late rally to beat Oklahoma State 37-31.
Jameis Winston was picked off twice in that game, throwing for 370 yards and a TD on 25-of-40 passing. He was plagued by interceptions all year long, finishing with 17 total. He threw four interceptions against the Gators in a 24-19 win on November 29.
The Ducks QB situation is quite different, the Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota threw for 313 yards and two TDs, with three rushing TDs in a 51-13 win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. He’s matched up against a Florida State defense that has allowed a lot of points against mediocre teams this season. I expect Mariota to have another monster game in the Rose Bowl.
He did a much better job protecting the football, throwing for 38 TDs and just two INTs. He doesn't steal crab legs, he hasn't been accused of sexual assault, and doesn't get suspended for shouting sexually explicit comments (while still under investigation for sexual assault). In simple terms, Marcus Mariota makes better decisions than Jameis Winston, and playing QB is all about making good decisions.
The Ducks out-classed the likes of Stanford, Michigan State, UCLA and Arizona during the regular season, and Florida State didn't really out-class anybody. I expect to see the Seminoles win streak come to an end in the Rose Bowl.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-01-15 |
Michigan State +3 v. Baylor | Top | 42-41 |
Win | 100 | 171 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Michigan State Spartans. The Baylor Bears were the highest scoring team in the country, and they very nearly qualified for the first ever NCAA Football Playoffs. The selection committee ultimately decided that Ohio State was more deserving than either Baylor or TCU from the Pac-12. While it was a controversial decision, I actually think they made the right call. One of the reasons why I think Baylor didn't get the nod, was their struggles again big, physical teams, and their lackluster play away from home. We also saw this Baylor team lay an egg in their bowl game versus UCF last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them deliver another stinker here in the Cotton Bowl. Another reason why I like the Spartans, is that they actually have a good enough offense to win this game in a shootout. Connor Cook had a big year after making a name for himself in last year's Rose Bowl win over Stanford. Take MSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-01-15 |
Wisconsin v. Auburn -6 | Top | 34-31 |
Loss | -115 | 497 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn will face the Wisconsin Badgers in the Outback Bowl on New Years Day, and the Badgers are coming off an ugly blowout loss to Ohio State in the Big-10 Championship Game. Wisconsin's head coach has since moved on, and star RB Melvin Gordon has declared his intention to enter the NFL Draft.
I can't see the Badgers getting up for this game, and I don't think their preparation for the Outback Bowl has been taken all that seriously.
Wisconsin's QB Joel Stave really struggled against OSU, completing just 39% of his passes for 187 yards with no TDs and three INTs.
Auburn's offense was firing on all cylinders against Alabama, but they blew a lead and went on to lose 55-44. I don't think the Badgers offense can hurt them the way Alabama did, and if they play well offensively, the Badgers aren't going to be able to keep up.
Take AUB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-14 |
Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 49-34 |
Loss | -110 | 155 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Yellow Jackets managed to win 10 games during the regular season, going all the way to the ACC Championship Game. Opponents were baffled by their triple option offense, but that was when they had just one week to prepare. The Bulldogs have had more than a month to study this offense, so they aren't likely going to be taken by surprise.
Georgia Tech on the other hand will have to try to contain Dak Prescott, and I don't think that all the practice in the world is going to make much difference against the Heisman candidate.
The Bulldogs were the #1 ranked team in the country for several weeks during the regular season, and when it was all said and done, their only two losses came on the road at Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia Tech isn't anywhere near the caliber of those two teams, and I think we'll see the Yellow Jackets take a beating tonight.
Take MISST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-14 |
Boise State v. Arizona -150 | Top | 38-30 |
Loss | -150 | 151 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
The Wildcats ended their season on a sour note, getting shellacked by the Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game. This is the same Ducks team that they had upset in Oregon earlier in the season though, and they did well to win 10 games with such a tough schedule. Their only other loss came on the road at #22 ranked UCLA.
The Boise State Broncos played only one Top 25 team during the regular season, losing 35-17 to Ole Miss in their season opener. QB Grant Hedrick threw for 3,387 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs, but he saw a lot average defenses. He was picked off four times in the loss to Ole Miss.
Hedrick could struggle against an Arizona defense that boasts one of the countries top linebackers in Scooby Wright, who had 14 sacks during the regular season.
If the game turns into an offensive display, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon is more than capable of keeping up. He threw for 520 yards and five TDs in a win over Cal in September.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-29-14 |
Texas +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 7-31 |
Loss | -115 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns. The Arkansas Razorbacks will take on the Texas Longhorns in the Texas Bowl in Houston tonight. The Longhorns are a sizable dog here, and I don't think Arkansas deserves to be giving up so many points in at a neutral site against a Texas team with a very solid defense.
Arkansas lost it's regular season finale at Missouri, and QB Brandon Allen threw for just 133 yards on 13-of-30 passing in that game. The Tigers out-gained the Razorbacks 423-228, winning the game by a score of 21-14.
Arkansas strength is it's defense that ranked 17th nationally allowing an average 20.3 points per game. That defense is going to be shorthanded here in Texas, as two key players in the secondary have been suspended for violating team rules (CB Carroll Washington and S Rohan Gaines).
Texas played ranked opponents at neutral sites twice this season, losing both those game. Neither of those two games were decided by more than five points though, losing 20-17 to UCLA, and 31-26 versus Oklahoma.
A 48-10 home loss to #5 TCU in their season finale looks pretty ugly, but putting it in perspective, the Horned Frogs piled on 28 points in the fourth quarter. Arkansas doesn't have the offensive weapons to do that, and I expect this game to be a struggle for the Razorbacks.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-29-14 |
West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 37-45 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies began their season on the road at South Carolina, and they were a double digit underdog in that game. They would win by a score of 52-28, and Kenny Hill threw for a record 511 yards and three TDs. After throwing for 2649 yards and 23 TDs in the first eight games of the season, Hill was benched for violating team rules.
Freshman Kyle Allen came in and threw for 764 yards and nine TDs in the final four games of the season. His best game came on the road at Auburn, throwing for 277 yards and four TDs in a 41-38 upset win over the Tigers.
I think facing the West Virginia Mountaineers in a bowl game is a great match-up for Allen and the Aggies. This looks like it should be an offensive slugfest, with both team airing out early and often.
WVU QB Clint Trickett had a phenomenal year, but he's retired from football after suffering five concussions over the last 14 months. Backup Skyler Howard played well in the final two games of the season, but the chemistry within the offense is likely not going to be the same.
Both teams finished with a 7-5 record, but all of the Aggies losses came against SEC powerhouse teams. West Virginia simply isn't cut from the same cloth as the likes of LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Take A&M.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-14 |
Nebraska v. USC -6.5 | Top | 42-45 |
Loss | -107 | 272 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
Nebraska heads West to play the Trojans in San Diego in the Holiday Bowl this Saturday. The Cornhuskers will be without their head coach Bo Pelini, who was fired after the season. This is a team that won nine games in the Big-10, but they played just three ranked teams, losing all three of those games.
A loss to Wisconsin in mid November exposed just how vulnerable this defense is when matched up against elite talent. Melvin Gordon ran for a record setting 408 yards and four TDs on 25 carries, and the Badgers won by a score of 59-24.
The Trojans finished with a record of 8-4, however they had a far more challenging schedule. Three of their four losses came against ranked opponents, but they also recorded a pair of road wins against Top 25 teams. They upset Stanford at The Farm, and beat the Wildcats in Arizona.
The Trojans wrapped up the regular season with an impressive blowout win over Notre Dame, and QB Cody Kessler threw for 372 yards and six TDs in that game. Nebraska is unlikely to fare much better than the Irish here in the Holiday Bowl.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-14 |
Duke v. Arizona State -7 | Top | 31-36 |
Loss | -108 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Duke Blue Devils finished the regular season with nine wins, but most of those came against inferior teams in the ACC. They lost two of their last three games, with home losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. I think the Blue Devils are likely to be over-matched when they meet the Sun Devils in the Sun Bowl on Saturday.
Arizona State also finished with a record of 9-3, but four of those wins came against ranked opponents. They beat Notre Dame and Stanford by double digits.
Duke's defense is likely to struggled to contain D.J. Foster, who ran for 1002 yards during the season. Foster ran for 120 yards on 21 carries in a win over Notre Dame on November 8th, but failed to reach the century mark in his final three games. He's well rested ahead of this game though, and Duke's defense has had trouble stopping the run.
Duke hasn't won a bowl game since 1961, and hasn't defeated a non conference Top 25 team since beating Stanford in 1971. I don't think either of those streaks are going to end here today.
Take ASU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-26-14 |
North Carolina State v. Central Florida -130 | Top | 34-27 |
Loss | -130 | 107 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UCF Knights. It was never going to be easy to replace Blake Bortles, and naturally the Knights struggled early on this season. After losing their first two games, Central Florida went on to win nine of 10, and closed out the regular season on a four game winning streak. Sophomore QB Justin Holman threw for 274 yards and a TD in a 32-30 upset win at East Carolina in the final game of the season.
This team's strength is in it's defense though, a unit that ranked 8th overall nationally allowing just 17.9 points per game. They are particularly strong against the run, holding the opposition to an average of 97.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks fifth in the country. They held East Carolina and South Florida to a combined 19 yards on the ground in their last two games.
The Knights will play N.C. State in the St. Petersburg Bowl, and the Wolfpack have been piling up the yardage with their running game of late. They ran for more than 300 yards in each of their last two games, wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina. I don't think they'll find it so easy here in Florida tonight.
The Wolfpack were one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC, and I don't like their chances of out-scoring the Knights here in Florida.
Take UCF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-23-14 |
Northern Illinois +10 v. Marshall | Top | 23-52 |
Loss | -106 | 42 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
For most of this season people have been asking just how good is this Marshall team that was undefeated through it's first 11 games. The answer in my mind came when they lost to Western Kentucky in overtime in their 12th game of the season. They followed that up with another lackluster showing in the C-USA Championship Game, trailing LA Tech 26-13 heading into the fourth quarter, but scoring the game winning TD in the final two minutes.
They face an accomplished Northern Illinois Huskies team, that won it's final seven games of the season, including a 51-17 thrashing of Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game. NIU RB Cameron Stingily has been a big part of their success, and he ran for 116 yards and a pair of TDs in the win over the Falcons.
Stingily is likely to find a ton of running room against a very soft Marshall defense. The Thundering Herd have allowed an average of 207.7 rushing yards in their last three games. QB Drew Hare also poses a threat with his legs, and he's picked up 615 yards with six rushing TDs during the season. He's also been good at protecting the football, with 17 TDs and just two picks.
An injury to RB Devon Johnson threatens to hurt Marshall's chances, he's been limited to just seven carries in his last two starts. He's still rumored to be bothered by various ailments, but will try to play against the Huskies.
Take NIU. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-22-14 |
BYU +2 v. Memphis | Top | 48-55 |
Loss | -109 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the BYU Cougars.
The Cougars were in the discussion as a potential long shot playoff contender after winning their first four games. They lost QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg in their fifth game of the season, and that started a downward spiral that saw them lose their next four games. Backup Christian Stewart found his stride in the final month of the season, and he would lead the Cougars to four straight wins in their final four games.
Stewart threw 14 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games, and his best game might have been on the road at Cal. He threw for 433 yards and five TDs, eliminating the Bears from bowl eligibility.
Memphis gets a lot of respect for it's 5th ranked defense that allowed only 17.1 points per game during the regular season, but they had a pretty soft schedule. They closed out the season on a six game winning streak, but not one of those opposing teams had a winning record.
One of their three losses came against the Houston Cougars, a team that BYU was able to defeat by a score of 33-25 in Provo. I like what I saw from the Cougars at the end of the season, and I think Memphis is just a bit overrated.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-20-14 |
Utah -157 v. Colorado State | Top | 45-10 |
Win | 100 | 99 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utes will play the Colorado State Rams in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday, and this game will feature one of the great defensive teams from the Pac-12 against an offensive juggernaut from the Mountain West. Utah's 8-4 record includes wins over #8 UCLA, #20 USC, and last year's Pac-12 champions Stanford.
The Rams didn't face any ranked teams this year, and they've lost 15 straight against Top 25 teams. Their QB put up big numbers, but you have to consider the teams he was up against. Utah's defense is going to be by far the best he's seen, with DE Nate Orchard who's 17.5 sacks were the most in the country (per 12 games).
RB Devontae Booker could have a monster game against a Rams defense that allowed an average of 187.6 rushing yards per game. That was against inferior teams in their weak conference. Trying to stop a guy who ran for 140+ against both Arizona and Arizona State, well that's a tough ask. Booker could easily go for 200 yards in this game.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Wisconsin v. Ohio State +155 | Top | 0-59 |
Win | 155 | 135 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes are down to their third string QB as they get set to face Wisconsin in the Big-10 Championship Game. J.T. Barrett exceeded all expectations filling in for Braxton Miller, but he suffered a season ending broken ankle in last week's win over Michigan. Cardale Jones has only made a couple of brief appearances this season, completing 19-of-17 attempts for 118 yards and a pair of TDs.
I think it would be naive to assume that Jones isn't capable of running this offense. He's surrounded by a talented group of wide receivers, an explosive running back in Ezekiel Elliot.
Wisconisn leans heavily on it's running game, and if the Buckeyes defense can contain Mevlin Gordon, it will put pressure on Badgers QB Joel Stave. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up, with 8TDs and 4 INTs on the season. Ohio State is just a better team than Wisconsin, and they shouldn't need Cardale Jones to do anything spectacular. I think the Buckeyes can win with a conservative game plan and solid defense.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Kansas State v. Baylor -7 | Top | 27-38 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears. The Baylor Bears are undefeated at home with a 6-0 record, and with the exception of a 61-58 win over TCU, the rest of those games were blowouts. The Bears offense is averaging almost 50 points per game, more than any other team in the country.
The Wildcats are 3-1 on the road, with an ugly loss to TCU by a score of 41-20. They also failed to impress in a close win at Iowa State, winning by just four points (32-28).
Baylor beat the Wildcats on their own turf by a score of 35-25 last season, and hammered them 52-24 in Waco the year before. This Baylor offense is almost impossible to stop at home, and I expect to see them outscore K-State again tonight.
How good are the Bears at home? They are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games, and they aren't asked to cover too big a number here all things considered.
Take Baylor.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Missouri v. Alabama OVER 48.5 | Top | 13-42 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIZZ@BAMA to go OVER the total.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a wild 55-44 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and they are heavily favored in the SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Missouri has won six straight, and the Tigers defense is ranked 13th in the nation with opponent's averaging under 20 points per game. They've struggled against elite running backs though, allowing Toledo's Kareem Hunt to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 2, Indiana's Tevin Coleman to run for 132 yards and a TD in Week 4, and Georgia's Nick Chubb to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 6.
Alabama's T.J. Yeldon ran for 127 yards and a pair of TDs in the Iron Bowl, and I expect him to have a big game here in Atlanta. Success running the ball should open things up for Blake Sims and Amari Cooper in the passing game.
Before you get too impressed with Missouri's six game win streak and it's 10-2 record, let's look at their schedule. Only one of their 12 opponents is currently ranked in the Top 25, and was a 34-0 home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. They also lost at home to unranked Indiana, an embarrassing defeat for an SEC team.
I'm expecting Alabama to pile on the points here, and the over is 10-1-1 in the Tide's last 12 neutral site games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-14 |
Arizona v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 13-51 |
Win | 100 | 111 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The Arizona Wildcats upset the The Ducks in Oregon back in October, but I think Oregon will execute it's revenge here in the Pac-12 Championship Game tonight. The Ducks have won seven straight since, and all of those wins came by a margin greater than the spread they are asked to cover tonight.
Marcus Mariota threw for 367 yards and four TDs, in last week's Civil War game, and he also ran for 39 yards and a pair of TDs in the 47-19 win over the Beavers. The Ducks struggled to protect Mariota with a banged up offensive line in the last meeting, but now that they are healthy, I expect to see a different game here in Santa Clara.
"We're just going to play our game. Arizona did a great job setting and dictating tempo in the last meeting," said Mariota. "If we go out and execute to the best of our abilities and execute the game plans that are put in front of us, we should hopefully be successful."
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-14 |
Northern Illinois -6.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 51-17 |
Win | 101 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Falcons upset the Huskies in last year's MAC Championship Game, but the Falcons come into the rematch off back to back losses. Northern Illinois on the other hand has been on top form, winning six in a row.
Falcons QB James Knapke has thrown for just 211 yards on 25-of-51 passing with no TDs in losses to Toledo and Ball State. He's only thrown two TD passes over his last five starts, and such a one-dimensional offense might play into the hands of the opponent tonight.
The Huskies own one of the nation's top running offenses, averaging over 246 rushing yards per game. Cameron Stingily has been the workhorse in the back field, running for 779 yards and 11 TDs.
The Huskies are also a one-dimensional team that leans heavily on the run, but NIU QB Drew Hare has been very accurate when he does throw. He has 11 TDs and just one INT so far this season, throwing for 527 yards and five TDs in his last three starts.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-04-14 |
Central Florida v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 32-30 |
Loss | -106 | 86 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the East Carolina Pirates.
The Pirates will host the Central Florida Knights on Thursday night, and East Carolina is 5-0 at home this season, with all five of those victories coming by a double digit margin. The Knights boast a solid 8-3 record, but they've split their four road games so far.
While the Knights have been very good defensively, the offense has really suffered without Blake Bortles, who was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Justin Holman has taken over at QB for the Knights, and he's really struggled on the road, tossing seven INTs in four starts.
Pirates QB Shane Carden has had no such issues at home, throwing for 14 TDs and just a pair of interceptions in five starts at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. He threw for 338 yards and four TDs in a road win at Tulsa last week, and the Knights are going to have their hands full trying to stop this high octane offensive attack tonight led by the nation's #3 ranked quarterback (passing yards).
The home team has won and covered in five of the last six meetings between these two teams, and I think we get a fair price to back the Pirates at home tonight.
Take ECU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
Auburn v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 44-55 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is a FREE #NCAAF play on the Alabama #CrimsonTide.
Auburn has been one of college football's elite teams over the last two seasons. The Tigers have gotten lucky on numerous occasions though, with wins coming in games that they could have, and maybe should have lost. One of those games was in last year's Iron Bowl at home against Alabama. The Tigers upset the Tide on a 100 yard return on a missed field goal attempt to win the game.
A year later, and Alabama will have a chance to avenge that loss, and this time the game will be played on their home turf. Auburn scheduled a soft opponent last week, and a 31-7 win over Samford doesn't impress much. Prior to that the Tigers went 2-3 during a five game stretch where they could have easily lost all five of those games.
They barely survived in a 42-35 win over the Gamecocks, and then Ole Miss had the game winning TD come off the board with a video review ruling the play a fumble prior to crossing the line.
It was just a few weeks ago that Texas A&M upset Auburn, and that same Aggies team lost 59-0 at Alabama. I bet against the Tigers in that game, as well as their loss to Georgia. I just don't think this team is as good it's cracked up to be, and I can't see them hanging with the Tide here in Alabama.
Take BAMA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
Florida +10 v. Florida State | Top | 19-24 |
Win | 100 | 132 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators.
The Seminoles have been flirting with disaster all season long, yet every week they do just enough to win. Last week they beat the Boston College Eagles 20-17. It was the fifth time this season they've won by less than a TD, and they've also trailed at halftime five times this season.
The Gators have a 6-4 record, but their losses have come against the likes of SEC powerhouses LSU, Alabama and Missouri. They also beat a very good Georgia team at the beginning of November by a score of 38-20 at Jacksonville. Florida ran for 418 yards in that game, and they are likely to have success running the ball against Florida State today. The Seminoles defense allowed Boston College to rack up 240 yards last week, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Jameis Winston has thrown more picks than he has TDs over his last four starts, and going up against an SEC defense could prove to be his undoing.
The Gators should be all fired up, playing their final game under head coach Will Muschamp, against a bitter rival. Don't be shocked to see an upset in Tallahassee.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
Notre Dame v. USC -6.5 | Top | 14-49 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
The Trojans are coming off a loss on the road against rivals UCLA, but they had won four of five prior to that. They will host Notre Dame Saturday, and the Irish have lost four of five. Their only win during that span came in a close game against Navy, and their defense has really struggled without senior linebacker Joe Schmidt. They've allowed at least 30 points in all of their last five games.
Injuries have continued to pile up for Notre Dame, who lost defensive lineman Jaron Jones and cornerback Cody Riggs in the loss to Louisville. You would have to expect this unit to struggle against a Trojans offense that has plenty of weapons.
Trojans QB Cody Kessler has had a very solid season, throwing for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just four INTs. He's thrown for 17 TDs and just one pick while winning four of his five starts at home.
Everett Golson hasn't had nearly as much success protecting the football, throwing at least one pick in eight straight starts (13 total).
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
West Virginia v. Iowa State +13 | Top | 37-24 |
Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State has just two wins this season, and they are 0-7 versus Big-12 teams. They've actually been far more competitive than those record indicate though, as losses to Kansas State, Texas and Texas Tech all came by less than five points. The Cyclones host West Virginia Saturday, and the Mountaineers have lost three straight.
WVU quarterback Clint Trickett left last Thursday's game with a concussion, and he's listed as doubtful to play here this week. Backup Skyler Howard played well in relief though, throwing for 198 yards and a TD on 15-of-23 passing. He's only seen action in one other game this season though, failing to complete a pass in a brief appearance against Kansas.
The Cyclones beat West Virginia in Morgantown last year by a score of 52-44, and they lost in a close game the previous season 31-24. It seems like quite a bargain getting ISU as a home dog of more than a TD, as this is a game that they could easily win outright.
Take ISU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-14 |
Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 62.5 | Top | 35-42 |
Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARZST@ARIZ to go UNDER the total.
The Wildcats host the Sun Devils in Tuscon on Friday, and both teams are tied with a 9-2 record. This is a huge game for both teams, who are gunning for first in the Pac-12 South, along with UCLA who is also sitting at 9-2. Arizona's defense has been impressive lately, allowing an average of just 18 points over their last four games.
They might need the defense to come up big if starting QB Anu Solomon is unable to go, he left lat week's game with a foot injury and has since been seen wearing a walking boot. The Wildcats opted to lean on the run with backup Jesse Scroggins in the game, as he only attempted five passes, completing three of those four 64 yards.
Nick Wilson ran for 218 yards and three TDs against a strong Utah defense last week, and I see no reason why they wouldn't continue to feed the hot hand.
While both teams are capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, I find that in big divisional battles like this, often it's the defenses that shine. Public money appears to be on the over, but there are some long standing trends that point toward a low scoring game. The Wildcats have only seen the total go over in two of their last 10 home games, and going back further reveals that 20 of their last 27 home games versus teams with a winning record have gone under the total. All things considered, this number looks a little high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-14 |
Navy -9.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-40 |
Loss | -110 | 63 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Navy Midshipmen.
The Midshipmen are coming off a 52-19 blowout win over the Georgia Southern Eagles. I bet on Navy in that game, and here is what I said prior to kickoff: "The Georgia Southern Eagles boast an 8-2 record, giving them twice as many wins as Navy, but don't let that fool you. Georgia Southern has been beating up on the minnows of the Sun Belt, and when they've stepped up in competition they've failed the test, losing to N.C. State and Georgia Tech. The Midshipmen play with the big boys though, competing with the likes of Ohio State, Rutgers and Notre Dame. Navy gave the Irish all they could handle two weeks ago at Fedex Field, but the Midshipmen came up short losing 49-39. They've had a bye week to rest and prepare for today's game, and they should come out and steamroll this pretender out of the Sun Belt."
One again they face an inferior opponent from the Sun Belt conference, only this time it's a much weaker team. They are on the road, but I don't think that's going to stop them from winning by double-digits against a Jaguars team that they beat last year by 28 points.
Take NAVY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-14 |
TCU v. Texas +7 | Top | 48-10 |
Loss | -115 | 44 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
The Horned Frogs have really struggle away from home in their last two road games, winning by a combined five points at West Virginia and Kansas. They take on the Longhorns in Texas on Thanksgiving Day, and Texas has been on a roll of late. Charlie Strong's team has won three straight (all blowouts) against Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State.
The Longhorns defense limited the Cowboys to just 192 yards of total offense in a 28-7 home win on November 15. QB Tyrone Swoopes threw for 305 yards and a pair of TDs on 24-of-33 passing. He's only thrown one interception in his last four starts, and he has 12 TDs and just six INTs on the season.
Trevone Boykin threw 21 TD passes in his first seven games, but has just three in his last three starts. He's also been picked off twice in those games. He's had to make due without leading rusher B.J. Catalon, who is listed as questionable to return for this game.
This looks like a tough spot for TCU, and asking them to cover points on the road just doesn't seem that realistic.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 53.5 | Top | 13-37 |
Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OSU@WASH to go UNDER the total.
The Huskies host Oregon State Saturday night, and the Beavers are a dangerous team right now. They ended a four game losing skid with an upset win over Arizona State last week, and need just one more win to become bowl eligible. They will likely need to get that win here in Washington, because their final game comes at home against Oregon.
It's not going to be easy against a Washington defense that plays particularly well at home. The Huskies limited Stanford to 20 points, and held the Sun Devils to 24 in home losses. Washington has also taken three of the last four meetings, but the key trend here is that the total has gone under in five of the last six meetings at Husky Stadium.
The Weather is also a potential factor that could slow down both teams on offense, with rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
USC v. UCLA UNDER 61 | Top | 20-38 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Trojans will take on the Bruins in Pasadena, and this is a game with plenty at stake. Both teams are trying to win the Pac-12 South, and earn a shot at playing in the Conference Championship game. Both these teams have a load of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and I expect this game to be a tight one.
That's certainly been the case when these two teams have played each other over the past decade, with seven of the last eight head to head meetings going under. Only one of those eight games saw a total as high as 60, and tonight's game has a total that's sky high. That hasn't stopped the public from betting on the over, and I think were getting great value, with a number that appears to be rather inflated.
The news that USC has reinstated star DB Josh Shaw certainly won't hurt the Trojans defense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Vanderbilt +30.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 0-51 |
Loss | -102 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off their first loss of the season, and it was a tough one in a close game at Alabama. They host the 3-7 Commodores a week later, a game that looks pretty easy on paper. Vanderbilt has been terrible all year, still looking for their first win in conference play. It's not likely to come here as a 30+ point dog, but I like their chances of making a game of it.
This is a actually a tough spot for the home team, as they could get caught looking ahead to the Egg Bowl against rivals Ole Miss. The Commodores have shown signs of life in recent weeks, and losses to Missouri and South Carolina came by just 10 points.
A 34-10 loss to the Gators in their last game was closer than the score would indicate, as they trailed by just 10 points in the fourth quarter before Florida piled on 17 points late. They've had an extra week to prepare for this game, so expect them to come to play.
Take VANDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Colorado +32.5 v. Oregon | Top | 10-44 |
Loss | -106 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Colorado Buffaloes. The Oregon Ducks are flying, there's no doubt about that. They went into Utah and laid a whuppin' on the Utes, but that game actually could have played out a lot differently. Oregon won by a score of 51-27, but the Utes dominated the game in the first quarter, and they had appeared to have jumped out to a 14-0 lead, when a premature TD celebration turned into a fumble that was returned for a TD the other way. The Ducks are in line for a Pac-12 Championship, and a playoff birth. You better believe if they build up a sizable lead, the starters will not see a lot of time in the second half. They have been known to blow teams out at home, and on the road for that matter, but they haven't beaten any Pac-12 teams by a margin as great as the spread in this game (this season). Colorado also has the type of team that is capable of a late rally to narrow the gap in garbage time. They scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to force OT in a loss to UCLA last month. Take COL. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | Top | 31-28 |
Loss | -106 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOU@ND to go UNDER the toal.
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College.
The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei.
The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much.
The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game.
The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like the chances of failing to reach a total over 50.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Louisville +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 31-28 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Louisville #Cardinals.
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College.
The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei.
The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much.
The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game.
The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like L'Ville getting more than a FG.
Take L'Ville.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-14 |
Air Force +6 v. San Diego State | Top | 14-30 |
Loss | -104 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Air Force Falcons.
The Falcons will be on the road at San Diego State taking on the Aztecs on Friday, and the visitors boast a record of 8-2. It's not exactly like they've been playing cupcakes either, as those wins have come against the likes of Boise State, Army, Navy and Nevada.
The Aztecs lost to both Boise State and Nevada, and QB Quinn Kaehler threw for 362 yards and a pair of TDs, getting picked off twice in those games. When the line opened with San Diego State as a two point favorite, it seemed reasonable enough given the venue. We've seen public money come in on the Aztecs though, and I don't think it's realistic to ask them to cover a big spread here.
This is not the same San Diego State team that won 17 games over the last two seasons, they've regressed quite a bit this year. Kaehler has really struggled, throwing fewer TDs (8) than he has INTs (9).
I've heard that one of the reason's for line movement here is that the Falcons will be without their leading rusher Jacobi Owens. That doesn't bother me in the slightest, as a team that runs the triple option they have serious depth in the backfield. In fact they had four players average more yard per carry than Owens in last week's win over Nevada.
Take AFA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-20-14 |
Kansas State +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 26-20 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas State Wildcats.
The Wildcats are coming off a bye week, giving them time to lick their wounds after getting whupped by TCU. Prior to that they had won five straight though, and one of those was an impressive upset over the Sooners in Oklahoma. Given the extra time to regroup and prepare for tonight game in West Virginia, I expect to see the Wildcats respond with another impressive road win.
The Mountaineers have been great at times this season, but cracks are starting to appear. They come off consecutive losses at home to TCU and on the road at Texas. West Virginia is also coming off a bye week, and normally you expect that to work to a team's advantage. It hasn't been the case for Holgorsen and his Mountaineers though, who have failed to cover off their bye week in seven straight seasons.
The Wildcats have completely out-classes WVU in previous meetings, winning last year at home by a score of 35-12, and the previous year at Morgantown by a score of 55-14.
The Mountaineers had no answer for big physical teams such as Oklahoma and Texas, and I expect a date with the Wildcats to prove to be the same story.
Take KSU
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
Missouri v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 34-27 |
Loss | -106 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies shocked Auburn last week, winning outright on the road as a 29 point dog. Here is what I had to say prior to the game:
"The Tigers are being asked to cover an awful large spread here against a Texas A&M team that has the ability to score points in a hurry. Of course Kenny Hill will be riding the pine, serving a suspension, but backup Kyle Allen should be better as he's had more time to work with the starting offense. Keep in mind that Hill just barely beat out Allen for the starting job during training camp, and many consider him to be the QB of the future at College Station."
Allen went on to have a monster game, throwing for 277 yards and four TDs. Kenny Hill will suit up this week, but he'll be backing up Allen who has taken over as the #QB.
Missouri has won three straight since getting blown out 34-0 at home to Georgia, but their home wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt were not all that impressive.
The Tigers will be without starting safety Braylon Webb and corner Aarion Penton, and that's a scary thought against the air assault of Texas A&M.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
Georgia Southern v. Navy -145 | Top | 19-52 |
Win | 100 | 62 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Navy Midshipmen. The Georgia Southern Eagles boast an 8-2 record, giving them twice as many wins as Navy, but don't let that fool you. Georgia Southern has been beating up on the minnows of the Sun Belt, and when they've stepped up in competition they've failed the test, losing to N.C. State and Georgia Tech.
The Midshipmen play with the big boys though, competing with the likes of Ohio State, Rutgers and Notre Dame. Navy gave the Irish all they could handle two weeks ago at Fedex Field, but the Midshipmen came up short losing 49-39. They've had a bye week to rest and prepare for today's game, and they should come out and steamroll this pretender out of the Sun Belt.
Take NAVY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
TCU v. Kansas +29 | Top | 34-30 |
Win | 100 | 62 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Horned Frogs stock is at an all time high, but I think it's time to sell. TCU has bumped Alabama out of the fourth and final playoff spot, and it's ranked three spots ahead of a Baylor team that already beat them. They are being asked to cover an awfully big spread on the road this week at Kansas, especially when you consider that they barely avoided defeat at West Virginia in their last road game.
You might say "well West Virginia is a hell of a lot better than Kansas", and you might be right. But perhaps the gap is not as big as you think? Kansas lost 33-14 to the Mountaineers in Morgantown, and they also played relatively close games at home against Oklahoma State, and on the road at Texas Tech.
The Jayhawks won big over a very good Iowa State team at home last week, and they should be full of confidence heading into today's home game. The weather forecast in Lawrence Kansas is also calling for snow, and subzero temperatures, which might make it that much harder for TCU to run up the score.
Take KU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
Clemson -153 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 6-28 |
Loss | -153 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson's offense has been stuck in neutral since QB Deshaun Watson went down with a broken bone in his hand. He's set to return this afternoon in Atlanta, and that's not good news for Georgia Tech.
The Tigers defense ranks 12th nationally, holding opponents to an average of just over 18 points per game. They lead the nation in third down defense, while the Yellow Jackets are the top offense on third down. Something's got to give, but after seeing the Tigers hold Louisville and Florida State to a combined 30 points in regulation, I think Clemson's defense wins this battle.
The Tigers have lost just twice this season, and those defeats came against Georgia and FSU. Georgia Tech's two losses both come against unranked teams, at home versus Duke and on the road at North Carolina.
Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams lit up the Yellow Jackets defense for 390 yards and four TDs in the air, and another 73 yards with a TD on the ground. That bodes well for the talented Watson who should be more than capable of delivering a similar performance.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 59 | Top | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOL@NIU to go UNDER the total.
Last week I bet the under when the Huskies played Ball State. Here is what I had to say prior to kickoff: "The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch. Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan."
The Huskies host Toledo tonight, and weather conditions at Huskie Stadium are expected to be cold with heavy rain and wind. This should force both teams to lean heavily on the run, and that should help keep it a low scoring game. Toledo could be without it's starting quarterback who is dealing with a leg injury.
Only one of the last five meetings in Illinois have gone over the total, and given the conditions, we should expect another low scoring affair here.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Oregon v. Utah +9 | Top | 51-27 |
Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes. The high flyin' mighty Ducks of Oregon will be on the road in Utah this Saturday. This could be a potential problem game for the Ducks, as they are once again dealing with injuries to their offensive line. We've already seen them struggle earlier is season, playing a close game at Washington State, and losing outright at home to Arizona.
The Utes aren't exactly an ideal opponent, considering that they lead the nation with 39 sacks so far this season. Utah's two losses this season have come by a combined four points, and all three of their games versus ranked opponents have been close, low scoring games.
Utah will rely on running back Devontae Booker to have a big game, he's coming off five straight games with over 100 yards. Utes QB Travis Wilson is coming off a poor performance at Arizona State, throwing for just 57 yards on 12-of-22 passing.
These teams have failed to score a combined 60 points in seven of the last eight head to head meetings, and the one exception was a home win for the Ducks. I expect Oregon to struggle offensively on the road in Utah, and this game should be close.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Ohio State v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 49-37 |
Loss | -115 | 115 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans are the defending conference champions, defeating the Buckeyes by a score of 34-24 in the Big-10 Title Game last season. The Buckeyes will have to try to avenge that loss on the road at East Lansing this week, a daunting task to say the least.
The fact that the Spartans are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for this big game, is just one more reason to back the home team. The Buckeyes really struggled on the road two weeks ago at Penn State, and rookie QB J.T. Barrett threw a pair of interceptions.
It doesn't get any easier against the Spartans, who's defense has terrorized opposing QBs with 28 total sacks. They did a pretty good job of neutralizing Braxton Miller in last year's game, limiting him to 101 yards on 8-of-21 passing. I don't expect Barrett to have a lot of time to drop back and pass here, and it could be a long night for the rookie.
Aside from home field advantage for the Spartans, one of the biggest differences between now and last season, is a vastly improved MSU offense. QB Connor Cook has really settled in at QB, throwing of 1878 yards and 17 TDs, with just 5 picks.
The Spartans haven't really showed any weakness this season, with their only loss coming on the road at Oregon in a game that they were leading in the third quarter. The Buckeyes were upended at home against a pretty average VT team, and nearly lost on the road to Penn State.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Kansas State +215 v. TCU | Top | 20-41 |
Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas State Wildcats ML. The Horned Frogs are getting a lot of love from the public with their high flying offense, but I am convinced that the Wildcats are a more complete team. TCU came from behind to win 31-30 at Morgantown last week, but they lost their leading rusher B.J Catalon to a shoulder injury. They own the second highest scoring offense in the country averaging 48 points per game, but they have been a little fortunate to catch some inferior opponents at the right time.
When they hosted the Oklahoma Sooners in October, they found themselves involved in a back and forth game that was decided by just four points (37-33). Of course the Wildcats upset those sames Sooners in Oklahoma.
Kansas State's only loss came at the hands of Auburn, last year's SEC champion and the current #3 ranked team in the country. At 7-1 the Widcats aren't exactly flying under the radar anymore, but I still think they aren't getting as much credit as they deserve. I also think that TCU is getting far too much credit for beating up on the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
The Wildcats have beat the Horned Frogs in each of the last two seasons, and both of those wins came by double digits. I expect them to make it three straight with an upset win here in Fort Worth.
Take KSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Notre Dame v. Arizona State -1.5 | Top | 31-55 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
On paper, this looks like it should be a close game. Both teams are 7-1, and they come in ranked #9 and #10 respectively. If you look at their schedules though, you'll see that Arizona State has played far superior opposition.
The Sun Devils are 3-1 versus ranked opponents, with wins over Stanford, USC and Utah. The Irish have played just two Top 25 teams, winning one of those at home to Stanford. They were a little fortunate in that game though, converting on a 4th and long to score the game winning TD with 1:01 left on the clock.
Notre Dame has not been playing it's best football recently, allowing 30+ points in each of it's last three games. Wins over North Carolina and Navy were unimpressive, and they will certainly have to play much better to avoid being embarrassed in Arizona this weekend.
Losing senior LB Joe Schmidt to a season ending ankle injury against the Midshipmen last week isn't going to help a defensive unit that has already been struggling. "We've got a couple things we're going to experiment with today, and then we'll get a better feel," Kelly said Tuesday. "We haven't practiced yet, so we have a system that we'll employ today, and I think we'll get a better feel over the next couple days."
The Sun Devils defense has limited it's last three opponents to an average of just 12 points, and I think Arizona is catching Notre Dame at an ideal time. They should avenge last season's 37-34 loss to the Irish at Arlington Texas.
Take ARZST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Iowa State -215 v. Kansas | Top | 10-34 |
Loss | -215 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Iowa State Cyclones.
We will see two of the bottom feeders of the Big-12 face off in Kansas this week, but while both teams have identical 2-6 records, I think there is no doubt that the Cyclones are the better team.
Iowa State has won four straight in this series since 2010, by an average margin of 19 points. Last season they shut out the Jayhawks in a 34-0 home victory. The Cyclones struggled last week on the road at Oklahoma, but they have played some close games against top opponents on the road this season.
They upset rivals Iowa at Kinnick Stadium by a score of 20-17, and losses at Kansas State and Texas came by a combined seven points.
The visiting team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two conference rivals, and Iowa State has covered four straight versus teams with a losing record.
Take ISU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Texas A&M +22 v. Auburn | Top | 41-38 |
Win | 100 | 126 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
Auburn survived a scare from the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks two weeks ago, holding on for a 42-35 victory. Last week it appeared that Ole Miss had scored the go-ahead TD in the final minute, but after video review the TD was reversed, ruled a fumble and the Tigers ran out the clock to win 35-31.
The Tigers are being asked to cover an awful large spread here against a Texas A&M team that has the ability to score points in a hurry. Of course Kenny Hill will be riding the pine, serving a suspension, but backup Kyle Allen should be better as he's had more time to work with the starting offense.
Keep in mind that Hill just barely beat out Allen for the starting job during training camp, and many consider him to be the QB of the future at College Station.
While the Aggies have lost three straight versus SEC opponents, only one of those was a blowout, an ugly 59-0 loss at Alabama. I expect head coach Kevin Sumlin to be well prepared to give the Tigers a run for their money.
This game should be a lot closer than many think.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
West Virginia v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 16-33 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns. Charlie Strong has his team playing pretty good football in recent weeks, and I don't see any reason why they should be getting points at home today against West Virginia. Keep in mind the Mountaineers have won all three of their road games, but wins over Texas Tech and Maryland came by just three points.
The Longhorns have won two of their last three, beating Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Mountaineers know that they will have their work cut out for them: "It's not a good matchup for us," defensive coordinator Tony Gibson said. "They're big and powerful, and they're going to try and run the ball and wear us down a little bit. We are going to have our work cut out for us."
Texas ran for 246 yards and three TDs in a home win over the Red Raiders last week. Tyrone Swoopes has seemingly settled in at QB for the Longhorns, throwing for 549 yards with two TDs and one INT in his last two home starts.
The Texas defense has been hard on opposing QBs, with 27 sacks and a dozen picks. It could be a long night for Clint Trickett.
Take Texas.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 63 | Top | 35-21 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NIU@BALL to go UNDER the total.
The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch.
Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan.
Ball State is also adjusting to life after a prolific QB, as they lost Keith Wenning to the NFL draft. Sophomore Jack Milas threw for 225 yards on 18-of-36 passing for no TDs and no INTS in a 35-21 win over Akron in his last start.
The home team has seen the total go under in nine of it's last 13 when coming off a bye week, while the Huskies have failed to go over the total in all but on of their last five versus a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-04-14 |
Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58 | Top | 27-10 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BG@AKR to go Under the total.
The Zips are coming off back to back losses on the road, but they return home to host Bowling Green on Tuesday night. They have won 3-of-4 at home, and the only loss was to undefeated Marshall. Their defense limited opponents to a total of just 25 points in those three victories, and they rank 22nd overall in the nation allowing just over 20 points per game.
Starting QB Kyle Pohl has missed the last two games, and his status for tonight's game remains unclear as he recovers from a concussion. The Falcons lost their starting quarterback in Week 1, and backup James Knapke has thrown almost as many picks (9) as TDs (10).
The Falcons have won five straight in this series, and each of the last two seasons the games have been low scoring, failing to go over 45 total points. Tonight's total is actually higher than it was in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
With two struggling offenses playing each other, I can't see these teams putting up a lot of points. Weather is also likely to play a role, as conditions at Akron appear to be less than optimal. The forecast is calling for 50% chance of rain with winds at 29 KM/H.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-14 |
Utah v. Arizona State -220 | Top | 16-19 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Arizona State Sun Devils host the Utah Utes tonight, and Utah is missing it's leading receiver Dres Anderson. The Utes offense was already one-dimensional prior to the injury, and the passing game figures to really struggle against a tough Sun Devils defense tonight. The Utes have won three straight, once in overtime and the others by three points or less. The bounces have gone their way, but eventually the luck is sure to even out, and playing on the road against a superior opponent tonight should prove to be a daunting task. The Sun Devils have #1 QB Taylor Kelly back, and their defense has held opponents to just 20 points the last two weeks.
Take AZST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-14 |
Utah State -150 v. Hawaii | Top | 35-14 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Utah State Aggies. The Aggies have overcome injuries at the quarterback position to win three of their last four games. Last week third stringer Craig Harrison came in to throw for 221 yards and three TDs on 13-of-23 passing. Normally I wouldn't be so confident in a third string QB on the road against a conference rival, but Hawaii just isn't very good. Warriors QB Ikaika Woosley threw for 201 yards on 18-of-32 passing with 1 TD and an INT in a loss to Nevada last week. Hawaii has just two wins so far, and both of those have come against pretty weak opposition. I think Utah State should be in good shape just leaning on it's superior defense and running game. The Aggies beat Hawaii by a score of 47-10 at home last year, and won 35-31 at Hawaii in 2011. Take USU. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-01-14 |
Auburn v. Ole Miss -125 | Top | 35-31 |
Loss | -125 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Louisiana State last week, and it was a game they probably should have won. They host the 6-1 Auburn Tigers this week, in a game with everything at stake for both teams. A loss would all but crush either team's hopes of playing for the Sec Championship, as well as a potential playoff spot.
Five of Auburn's six wins this season have come at home, and the Tigers haven't looked impressive in either of their road games, losing to Mississippi State, and just barely avoiding defeat versus the Kansas State Wildcats. They only managed 231 yards of total offense in the 20-14 win at Manhattan.
It's not going to get any easier against the nation's #1 defense this week, the Rebels have allowed opponents to average just 10.5 points per game. Auburn will have to be much better than it was last week at home against South Carolina, allowing the Gamecocks to amass 535 yards of total offense, with 416 yards in the air. The only thing stopping South Carolina from winning outright, was a the three INTs thrown by Dylan Thompson.
Bo Wallace could have a big game against a Tigers secondary that appears to be struggling.
Take MISS.
GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Nevada -155 v. Hawaii | Top | 26-18 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. The Wofpack will take on the Warriors in Hawaii in the late game Saturday, and they've won the annual meeting in each of the last three seasons. The most one-sided of those games was their last visit to the Aloha State, as Nevada won by a score of 69-24 in 2012. Cody Fajardo threw for 220 yards and a pair of TDs in that game, and he led Nevada to an upset win over BYU last week. The Warriors are coming off a 20-10 loss at San Diego State last week, and QB Ikaika Woolsey was picked of twice throwing for 174 yards and a TD on 17-of-31 passing. Hawaii has covered the points in five straight home games, but have failed to cover in four straight against teams with a winning record. The Warriors offense really struggles, averaging just 21 points per game, ranking 112th nationally. I think the Wolfpack should be able to control the clock with their running game, and will have no trouble picking up their fourth straight win against Hawaii. Take NEV. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Arizona State -160 v. Washington | Top | 24-10 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Sun Devils are coming off consecutive wins over Top 25 teams, upsetting the Trojans in California and beating Stanford 26-10 at home last week. They travel to Seattle to take on the Huskies tonight, and they have owned Washington in recent seasons. Arizona State has won eight straight meetings in this series, and it has covered the points in all eight of those games. A loss last week at Oregon leaves the Huskies a little banged up, with a couple of key players less than 100%. Leading rusher Lavon Coleman is expected to play with a shoulder injury, while starting QB C.J. Miles is listed as questionable with a concussion. The Sun Devils get Taylor Kelly back from injury, but the way backup QB Mike Bercovici has played the last few weeks, it's going to be tough for coach Todd Graham to keep him on the bench. Kelly threw for 271 yards, ran for 84 and totaled four touchdowns in a 53-24 win over the Huskies last year. Washington is a tough place to play, and the Huskies aren't going to go down without a fight, but Arizona State should have too many weapons. Take ASU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
USC +1 v. Utah | Top | 21-24 |
Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
Th 5-1 Utes will host the 5-2 Trojans in Utah tonight, and this game is roughly a pickem. I like the visitors, as I feel that Utah has been cruising through a soft schedule so far. Sure they upset the Bruins, but they also lost at home to unranked Washington State. The Trojans have played the Utes in each of the last three seasons, and won all three of those games. That includes a 38-28 win at Utah in 2012.
Utah's quarterback Travis Wilson has thrown seven TD passes this year, while UCS's Cody Kessler threw for seven TDs last week.
The Utes were held to a season low 201 yards in last year's loss to the Trojans, and USC leads the Pac-12 with nine interceptions. They have already gone out on the road and beat Stanford at The Farm, and they defeated the Wildcats in Arizona.
If you look at some of Utah's defensive stats, it looks pretty scary with 33 sacks on the season, and seven picks the last three weeks. Keep in mind that they put up those numbers mostly against lesser opposition, with only one game against a ranked opponent so far.
USC has covered the spread in four of their last five conference games, and I think they'll prove to be the better team here in Salt Lake City.
Take USC
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Ole Miss -170 v. LSU | Top | 7-10 |
Loss | -170 | 111 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
There are few places tougher to play than in Baton Rouge, but the LSU Tigers have already lost at home once this year, falling to Mississippi State by a score of 34-29. They could be in tough again this week with another Mississippi team coming to The Swamp.
Ole Miss comes in with a 7-0 record and the nation's #1 ranked defense allowing an average of just over 10 points per game. Bo Wallace is having a great year at QB for the Rebels, and it was just a few weeks ago that he threw for 251 yards and three TDs in at upset win over Alabama.
The Tigers on the other hand have a rookie under center in Anthony Jennings, who only has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in all but one of his starts this season. He appeared to be shell shocked in a 41-7 loss to Auburn a few weeks ago, completing just 5-of-10 attempts for 84 yards. He's going to have his work cut out for him tonight against the best defense in the country.
History favors the visitors, who have covered the spread in seven straight trips to Tiger Stadium. I expect this game to be close, but with Ole Miss having the experienced quarterback and superior offense, I think the Rebels find a way to win.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Michigan v. Michigan State -16.5 | Top | 11-35 |
Win | 100 | 118 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans are a big favorite at home this week against Michigan, and you will hear a lot of a rivalry between these two teams. I don't think the Wolverines are good enough to hold up their end of the bargain this year though. The Spartans won this game by a score of 29-6 last year, and their offense has greatly improved this season.
The Wolverines on the other hand are 0-2 on the road, including a 31-0 loss at Notre Dame. Their leading rusher Derrick Green is gone for the year with a broken clavicle, and QB Devon Gardner has struggled. He threw for 210 yards on 14-of-27 passing with no TDs and an INT in last season's loss at East Lansing.
Connor Cook is having a great year for the Spartans, and he has thrown for eight TDs and just one pick at home this season.
Michigan's offense has been prone to turnovers all season long, and that's not likely to change on the road against the Spartans opportunistic defense. The Spartans have covered the spread in six straight meetings in this series, and I can't see any reason why this game would be close.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Texas Tech +22.5 v. TCU | Top | 27-82 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Horned Frogs have won their last two home games against #4 ranked Oklahoma and #15 Oklahoma State. The TCU defense terrorized Daxx Garman last week, picking him off twice and holding him to 132 yards passing with no TDs. The Red Raiders on the other hand snapped a four game losing skid with a win over Kansas last week.
Texas Tech is an enormous underdog here in Fort Worth, but I like their chances of hanging with the Horned Frogs. This Texas Tech offense can put up points in a hurry, and they've already been involved in some shootouts versus ranked teams. They lost to Arkansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, but all of those games were close.
Last week's win over Oklahoma State was aided by turnovers, and potentially sets up the Horned Frogs for a let down here a week later. The Red Raiders beat TCU 20-10 at home last year, and they've won and covered four of their last five meetings with the Horned Frogs.
Davis Webb has thrown 22 TD passes on the season, six more than Trevon Boykin. I think TCU is going to have trouble shutting down the Raiders passing game, allowing Texas Tech to hang around and get a cover.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Mississippi State -13.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 45-31 |
Win | 100 | 107 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Mississippi State.
The Kentucky Wildcats were steamrolled on the road at Baton Rouge last week, and they return home to face the #1 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are 7-0, and one of those wins was a convincing victory at Louisiana State. The Wildcats are 5-0 at home, but none of those wins came against ranked opponents.
So far this season nobody has been able to stop Dak Prescot, and it's hard to imagine that Kentucky will succeed where LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M have failed. Mississippi State has won five straight in this series, covering the spread in four of those five games.
The Wildcats haven't been a good bet coming off a loss, failing to cover in four straight such situations. Making matters tougher this week, the Bulldogs are coming off a bye, giving them added rest and time to prepare for their first game as the nation's #1 ranked team.
The Tigers ran for 333 yards on this Kentucky defense last week, and regardless of home field advantage, it's going to be a tough ask to slow this Bulldogs running game behind a powerful offensive line.
Take MISST
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-14 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 58 | Top | 30-55 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
Last week the Cougars played three solid quarters of football against Nevada, but suffered a complete collapse in the fourth. The Wolfpack rallied for 22 points, winning by a score of 42-35. It was their third straight loss since losing star QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg. The Cougars are expected to get Jamaal Williams back from an ankle injury, and that should be a boost to their running game.
BYU will be on the road at Boise State Friday night, and these two teams have a history of playing closely contested games. Each of the last three meetings have gone under the total, and the last time they played on the Blue Turf, Boise State won 7-6 in September of 2012.
Neither team is as good defensively as they were back in 2012, but the total for tonight's game is much higher than it was then. BYU hasn't gone over the total in any of it's three road games this year, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Going back even further, they've seen eight of their last 11 road games go under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Stanford -162 v. Arizona State | Top | 10-26 |
Loss | -162 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Stanford Cardinal. The Sun Devils trailed USC by two scores in the final minutes of the fourth quarter in Los Angeles, but a 73 yard TD pass from Mike Bercovici pulled them within two points with just over two minutes to play. They would end up getting the ball back, and on the final play of the game Bercovici converted on a Hail Mary pass to give AZST the 38-34 victory. They could suffer a let down here a couple weeks later, hosting a Stanford team that beat them twice last year. The Cardinal still have the best defense in the country, allowing opponents to average just 10 points per game. "What makes them difficult is they're one of the best teams in the league, one of the most physical and most disciplined," coach Todd Graham said. "They're not going to beat themselves." Both USC and UCLA ran all over the Arizona State defense, with each team racking up more than 220 rushing yards. That doesn't bode well against Stanford, as the Cardinal will try to pound away with the run, and shut them down with their defense. History tells us to back the visitors. Take STAN. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Notre Dame +11.5 v. Florida State | Top | 27-31 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
I've been waiting all year for a good spot to really unload on a bet against the Seminoles, and tonight's game against Notre Dame sets up a perfect spot to back the underdog. The Irish have played far better football than the Noles all season long, albeit against pretty average opposition. A win at home against Stanford was an impressive result for Notre Dame though, and prior to last week's game versus the Tar Heels, they hadn't allowed an opponent to score 20 points.
It's been a tough week for Famous Jameis, but as of Saturday morning it appears that he's dodged another bullet, and will suit up in spite of the fact that he has a pending hearing regarding an alleged sexual assault, and an investigation into thousands of autographed memorabilia. All this has to take it's toll on the young man, and it's becoming very clear that he's walking on thin ice.
His numbers this season are nowhere near what they were last year, with 11 TDs and five INTs. Notre Dame QB Everett Golson has thrown for five more TDs, and one fewer pick.
The Seminoles have won 22 straight, but three times this year they were close to being upset. They needed a little luck to sneak past Oklahoma State, NC State and Clemson. The Irish should give them at least as much trouble as those three teams, and there's no doubt in my mind that this line is way higher than it should be. Look for a close game here in Tallahassee.
Take ND.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Rutgers v. Ohio State -19 | Top | 17-56 |
Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 5-1, and they travel to Columbus to take on the 4-1 Buckeyes this week. Should be a close game right? I don't think so!
The Buckeyes are back baby! J.T. Barrett has the Ohio State offense firing on all cylinders. He completed 18-of-23 attempts for 267 yards and four TDs on the road, helping the Buckeyes win by 28 points at Maryland. It was the third straight week that Ohio State scored 50+ points, making it the 5th highest scoring team in the country.
Rutgers has been padding it's record against cupcakes, with unimpressive wins over Howard, Tulane and Michigan. QB Gary Nova really had a rough time at the end of last season, throwing 10 picks in his last five starts. He's only faced one decent defense so far this year, and he was picked of FIVE TIMES in a home loss to Penn State.
Rutgers has lost six straight versus Top 25 times, and they will likely be in way over their heads in Ohio this week.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Kansas State +8 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-30 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas State Wildcats.
The Wildcats are 4-1, with their only loss coming in a tight game at home against Auburn by a score of 20-14. They face a tough challenge on the road this week at Oklahoma, but the Sooners offense has been sputtering in recent weeks.
Oklahoma narrowly escaped with a 31-26 home win over Texas last week, and they're being asked to cover a greater number here this week. The Oklahoma defense has been exposed since the beginning of conference play, allowing opponents to average over 342 yards passing per game.
Wildcats QB Jake Waters might be able to take advantage of their struggling secondary, as he's coming off a stellar performance against Texas Tech. Waters completed 24-of-31 passes for 290 yards and four TDs, and added 100+ yards and another TD on the ground. Tyler Lockett also had a big game, catching 12 passes for 125 yards a pair of TDs. The Sooners are going to struggle to silence this dynamic duo, perhaps the most potent 1-2 punch in the Big-12.
While Oklahoma has won five of the last six meetings straight up, they've only covered the spread once during that span. The Wildcats are a stellar 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams with a winning record.
Take KSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Iowa +5 v. Maryland | Top | 31-38 |
Loss | -109 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Maryland will try to pick up the pieces after getting worked over by by the Buckeyes in their last game. It's not going to be easy, hosting the rough and tumble Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa boasts a Top 20 defense, holding opponents to an average of less than 20 points per game.
It was the Iowa offense that was on full display last week though, as they racked up 207 yards and three TDs on the ground, jumping out to a 28-7 lead in the first quarter. The defense did it's part, picking off Indiana's quarterbacks three times.
The plan was for Iowa to use two quarterbacks, but Jake Rudock had a standout performance throwing for 207 yards and a pair of TDs on 19-27 passing.
Maryland hasn't shown anything to convince me that they should be giving up a handful of points in this game. The Hawkeyes are a strong team on the road, in fact they have covered the spread in eight straight away from home.
Take Iowa.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-16-14 |
Virginia Tech -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 16-21 |
Loss | -110 | 77 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
The Hokies are 4-2, and both their losses came at home in close games that went right down to the wire. They have won both their road games so far, including an upset of the Buckeyes in Ohio. Tonight they will take on the Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field. The Panthers have lost three straight to Iowa, Akron and Virginia.
The line has moved significantly in this game with the news that star RB Marshawn Williams will miss the game with a leg injury. This comes after they lost Shai Mckenzie for the remainder of the season just a week earlier.
Trey Edmunds picked up the slack in the win over North Carolina though, running for 54 yards on just 12 carries. He will likely be their first option tonight, and I see no reason why he can't be successful against a mediocre Pitt defense.
It's the defense that is the Hokies Strength though, and if they play as they did in the win over the Buckeyes, the Panthers will be in big trouble. Pitt's QB Chad Voytik has struggled lately, and he was just 16-of-30 passing for 195 yards with a pair of TDs and an INT in the loss to Virginia.
Take VT.
GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
USC -145 v. Arizona | Top | 28-26 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the USC Trojans.
The Arizona Wildcats shocked the college football world with another upset win over Oregon last Thursday. This sets them up for a let down spot at home against USC this week. They beat the Ducks last November, but then went on to lose 58-21 to the Arizona State the following week.
While Arizona is the only undefeated team remaining in the Pac-12, they have had some incredible luck in a few of those games. Their game winning drive against the ducks was stopped with a sack on third-and-8, but a very controversial call for unsportsmanlike conduct game the Wildcats a first down.
Two weeks earlier they trailed 31-13 heading into the fourth quarter versus Cal, but scored 36 points in the final frame, winning on a Hail Mary as time expired. You can't count on getting lucky every week, and this is just a terrible spot for the Wildcats who should be in over their heads against an elite opponent that's hungry to get back into the race for the conference title.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
Ole Miss +3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 35-20 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
Texas A&M didn't come into this season expecting to be a contender in the SEC, but after a thrilling performance by QB Kenny Hill in an upset win over South Carolina, this team was thrust into the spotlight. The bloom has come off the rose in recent weeks though, as it turns out the Gamecocks no longer represent the elite of the SEC.
The Aggies have struggled the last two weeks against two of the better teams in the conference, but this week they face a Rebels team that might just be the best of the bunch. Mississippi is coming off a home win over Alabama, keeping Blake Sims and Amari Cooper out of the endzone and limiting the Crimson Tide to just 17 points.
This Rebels defense is ranked #2 nationally just behind Stanford, but given the strength of schedule it's no stretch to say that the Rebels own the best defense in the country.
Kenny Hill didn't get a lot of help from his receivers last week, as there were several big drops that killed drives. He's had trouble protecting the ball though, tossing up three picks in the loss to the Bulldogs.
I like the Rebels getting points.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
LSU -1 v. Florida | Top | 30-27 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers.
It's been a tough week for the Florida Gators, with their quarterback Treon Harris accused of sexual assault, suspended, then cleared and reinstated. After his accuser withdrew her complaint, he has been cleared to rejoin the team, but Will Muschamp has said he will not play this Saturday. This is not good news for Florida, as it was Harris that sparks a late comeback versus Tennessee last week.
Jeff Driskel has not performed well in his last two starts, completing 20-of-51 passes for 152 yards with one TD and five picks. He's matching up against a dangerous LSU defense tonight, and there's every reason to expect his struggles to continue.
The Tigers were blown out on the road at Auburn last week, but I think they can bounce back against a lesser opponent here tonight.
LSU has won three of the last four in this series, including a 33-19 win at Florida in 2010. The Gators needed overtime to beat Kentucky at home in Week 2, and LSU should be a tougher opponent.
Take LSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
Duke v. Georgia Tech -4.5 | Top | 31-25 |
Loss | -106 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech is undefeated at 5-0, but after seeing so many undefeated teams fall victim to upsets the last two weeks, it seems like the trendy thing to do is fade the favorite in this spot. I'm not going to fall into that trap here though, as I think the home team is a well deserved favorite today.
Duke did not look impressive in a loss at Miami two weeks ago, and that same Miami team came into Atlanta and took a beating last Saturday. "We're getting better every week," coach Paul Johnson said. "That's what you hope that you can do."
The Blue Devils exceeded all expectations last year, winning 10 games and a division title. They still lost at home to Georgia Tech by a score of 38-14 though. The Yellow Jackets ran wild in that game, picking up 344 yards on the ground. After seeing Miami punish them on the ground in their last game, there's every indication that it's going to be a similar story here this time around.
The Yellow Jackets are 10-0 straight up, and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Take GT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
West Virginia -185 v. Texas Tech | Top | 37-34 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the West Virginia Mountaineers.
The Mountaineers are 3-2 on the season, but those two losses came in close games against Top 5 ranked teams. They lost 33-23 at #2 Alabama in Week 1, then lost 45-33 at home to #4 Oklahoma two weeks ago. They head out on the road to face Big-12 rivals Texas Tech this week, and one might expect this to be a high scoring affair.
I'm not so sure the Red Raiders can hold up their end of the bargain though, with plenty of questions at QB. Davis Webb has taken a pounding the last few weeks, and he's thrown as many picks (6) as he has TDs the last two weeks.
There are no questions about WVU QB Clint Trickett, who ranks among the nation's top passers with 1902 yards and 10 TDS. He should have no trouble marching his offense down the field all day, after all he threw for a ton of yards against Oklahoma and Alabama. The Red Raiders defense is not nearly of the same caliber as those two Top 5 teams, not even in the same universe.
Texas Tech has allowed an average of 40 points per game, one of the worst ranked scoring defenses in the nation.
Take WVU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
Georgia -145 v. Missouri | Top | 34-0 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
The big news in college football this week is that Heisman favorite Todd Gurley has been suspended for violating NCAA rules. While it's a big blow to Georgia, by no means does it mean that they can't win on the road in Missouri this week.
Nick Chubb comes in at running back, and he's averaging a healthy 7.2 yards per carry while backing up Gurley. Don't be surprised if Chubb rips off a monster game against this Missouri defense that has really struggled against the run. Give the offensive line of Georgia a little credit.
It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a backup running back put up big numbers when the starter goes down with an injury. Georgia can also open thing up with their passing game, and they get a pair of dangerous receivers back this week. Malcolm Mitchell missed the first four games of the season, but he return last week and had one reception for 11 yards. He should play a bigger role here on Saturday.
Missouri's QB Maty Mauk has cooled off after a hot start, and he threw for just 132 yards on 12-of-34 passing in the "lucky" win over South Carolina in his last game. It won't get any easier against another solid SEC defense this afternoon.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-14 |
Washington State +17.5 v. Stanford | Top | 17-34 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars.
When the Washington State Cougars take on Stanford at The Farm Friday night, we'll see the nation's leading passer matched up against the Cardinal's top ranked defense. Last week Halliday threw for an FBS record 734 yards, and the Cougars still lost at home to Cal. As good as the Cougars are on offense, they simply can't stop opponents from scoring. That was the case when these teams played in Washington last season as the Cardinal won 55-17. The score was a lot closer the last time the Cougars traveled to Palo Alto, and I expect Halliday to put a few points on the board here on Friday. The Cougars are just 1-2 during a three game stretch that has seen them score 118 points. They upset the Utes in Utah two weeks ago, proving they have what it takes to compete on the road.
Kevin Hogan had a big game in last year's meeting, throwing for 286 yards and three TDs. He's been limited in practice all week suffering a leg injury, but is expected to start tonight. He's coming off consecutive underwhelming performances, throwing for just 336 yards with one TD and three INTs at Washington and Notre Dame.
Keep an eye on River Cracraft, the Cougars WR caught 11 passes for 172 yards and three TDs on Saturday. It's not like they can put a double team on him, with senior Vince Mayle on the other side, the team leader with 703 yards and six TDs.
Stanford might have the best defense in the country, but their strength is in stopping the run. That's not going to help them against the Cougars, who don't have much of a running game anyway.
Take WSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|