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15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Ohio +13.5

The Ohio Bobcats are 5-4 this season with only a 1-point loss at Belmont as 6-point dogs and a 4-point loss in OT to Michigan as 14.5-point dogs.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall, which includes an impressive upset road win at Youngstown State as 4.5-point dogs last time out.

Florida already has four losses this season.  They lost outright as 12-point home favorites to FAU, lost by 7 to Xavier on a neutral, lost by 29 to WVU on a neutral and lost by 21 to UConn at home.  I don't think they have any business being 13.5-point favorites over Ohio given those results.

Keep in mind this isn't a true home game for Florida as it is being played on a neutral in Tampa, so they won't have their normal home-court advantage.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  Ohio is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a road win.  The Bobcats are 41-15 ATSin their last 56 games following two consecutive games as road underdogs.  Florida is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio Wednesday.

20* Memphis/Alabama ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Memphis +8

The Memphis Tigers always start slow and then get better as the season goes on.  That's likely due to many new faces every year with the elite talent Penny Hardaway recruits.  They started 2-2 this season but have since gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS with wins over Nebraska by 12, Ole Miss by 11 and their most impressive win being a 9-point victory over Auburn, handing the Tigers their first loss of the season.

I think this is a terrible spot for Alabama.  They are coming off a big comeback win at No. 1 ranked Houston, pulling off the upset as 8.5-point underdogs.  Now they return home and will be fat and happy following that victory.

Last year, Memphis beat Alabama 92-78 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  Now Memphis is catching 8 points on the road in the rematch this season.  This is simply too many points in a game that is likely going to come down to the final possession or two.

Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after playing a game as an underdog.  It is coming back to lose outright by 5.1 points per game in this spot.  Memphis is 41-19 ATS in its last 60 games following an upset win a an underdog.  The Tigers are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games as road dogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  Memphis is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Crimson Tide are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Bet Memphis Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Marshall -2

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with all nine victories coming by 9 points or more.  They are laying too short of a number against UNC-Greensboro tonight.

UNC-Greensboro is just 4-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging 65.4 points per game on 39.4% shooting.  I don't see how they can keep up with Marshall, which averages 82.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting.  

And it's not like the Thundering Herd are poor defensively.  They allow 38.9% shooting and are holding opponents to 6.6 points per game less than their season averages.  Greensboro holds opponents to 6.5 points per game less than their season averages and 41.5% shooting.  These teams are similar defensively, but there's a big discrepancy on offense.

Greensboro is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Spartans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Marshall Tuesday.

20* Wisconsin/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin +4.5

Iowa got away with being without their best player on Thursday in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG) in a 75-56 win over Iowa State in a game that closed Iowa -3.  Iowa State shot 3-of-22 (14%) from 3-point range while Iowa shot 12-of-23 (52%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen against Wisconsin.

Iowa's luck runs out today against a Wisconsin team that is 7-2 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  The Badgers have wins over Maryland, Marquette, USC and Stanford.  Their two losses both came down to the wire in OT to Kansas by 1 and to Wake Forest by 3.  So they haven't lost by this margin yet this season.  And without Murray again, the Hawkeyes aren't going to get margin on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.  The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The road team is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Wisconsin Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -4.5

Youngstown State is 7-3 this season with all three losses coming on the road.  They are 3-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 32.7 points per game.  I think they are laying too short of a number here to Ohio.

Ohio is 0-4 SU in true road games this season and losing by 8.2 points per game.  And it's not like they've faced a murder's row on the road with the losses coming to Detroit, Belmont, Marshall and Michigan.

Ohio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Youngstown State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

20* Arizona/Indiana FOX No-Brainer on Arizona PK

I think we are getting the Arizona Wildcats cheap at a PK today because they have failed to cover six of their last seven games overall.  This is a great time to 'buy low' on them as it's the first time all season they haven't been favored, and they have played a brutal schedule that has included Cincinnati, San Diego State, Creighton and Utah already.

Indiana has benefited from a much softer schedule with their best wins coming over Xavier and a banged-up UNC team.  They lost by 15 at Rutgers for their lone defeat, and they benefited from Nebraska being without one of their best players last game.  This is easily the toughest test of the season for Indiana.

This game is listed as a neutral, but no question the Wildcats will have the home-court advantage with more fans there with this game being played in Las Vegas.  Arizona has played the 85th-toughest schedule in the country while Indiana has played the 269th-toughest.  Jalen Hood-Schifino (8.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.1 APG) is questionable for the Hoosiers.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* Kansas/Missouri ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -3

I've been looking for spots to fade this Missouri Tigers team because they are overvalued due to their 9-0 record.  They have benefited from playing the 360th-ranked schedule in the country.  Now they take on a Kansas team that has played the 71st-toughest schedule in the country.

I faded Missouri with success last game as they struggled to even get by SE Missouri State 96-89 as a 21.5-point favorite.  And now I'll fade them again here against easily the toughest opponent they have faced to date in Kansas.  The previous toughest was Wichita State, and they needed OT to beat them.

Kansas has wins over Duke, NC State, Wisconsin and Seton Hall (by 26) already this season.  Their lone loss came against a very good Tennessee team.  Kansas beat Missouri 102-65 at home last season.  The favorite is now 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Memphis/Auburn ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Auburn -1

Bruce Pearl is doing a tremendous job at Auburn.  The Tigers are off to another great start this season at 8-0 SU.  I know it hasn't come against the most difficult schedule, but that's why were are getting them cheap here at basically a PK against the Memphis Tigers.

I trust Pearl more than Penny Hardaway, who just hasn't been able to get the most out of the talent on hand unlike Pearly.  Memphis already has two losses this season to Saint Louis and Seton Hall, and Auburn beat Saint Louis.  Seton Hall has lost by 26 to Kansas, by 16 to Iowa, by 13 to Oklahoma and lost outright to Siena, so that loss looks really poor now.

Auburn is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following seven or more consecutive wins.  Memphis is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 December games.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

15* Washington State/UNLV FS1 ANNIHILATOR on UNLV -1.5

The UNLV Rebels are 9-0 this season and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  This game against Washington State is listed as a neutral site venue, but it will basically be a home game for the Rebels being played at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.  Fans will come out in droves to watch this team try and keep their perfect record alive today.

Washington State is just 4-4 this season with its four wins coming against Texas State, Eastern Washington, Detroit and Northern Kentucky where they were substantial favorites in all four games.  They even lost outright as favorites to Utah, Boise State and Prairie Vie A&M.  They also lost by 14 at Oregon with three of their four losses coming by double-digits.  This team is way overvalued this season.

The Cougars are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Washington State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Roll with UNLV Saturday.

15* SDSU/Saint Mary's ESPN+ ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -1

The San Diego State Aztecs have a tremendous fan base and will have the home-court advantage despite this being played on a neutral in Phoenix.  Fans are excited about this team, and for good reason as the Aztecs are 7-2 this season with their two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in Arizona and Arkansas.

The Aztecs also have wins over BYU, Stanford and Ohio State and have played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.  St. Mary's is 7-3 this season against the 99th-ranked schedule.  They have upset losses to Washington and New Mexico already this season.  Their best wins are over Missouri State, Vanderbilt and North Texas.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (San Diego State) - off a SU home win but ATS loss, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%) are 73-36 (67%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take San Diego State Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Iowa FS1 No-Brainer on Iowa State +5.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are legit.  They are 7-1 this season with their lone loss coming to Connecticut, which may be the best team in the country at 10-0.  They have upset wins over UNC and Villanova and also handed St. John's their only loss of the season, 71-60.

The Cyclones beat the Hawkeyes 73-53 at home last season.  Iowa isn't as good as they were last season, and they could be without their best player in Kris Murray (19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG).  He was seen in a walking boot on Wednesday after suffering an injury early against Duke, but playing through it in a 62-74 loss on Tuesday.  Now the Hawkeyes are in a terrible spot playing their 2nd game in 3 days after having to travel back from Madison Square Garden where they played Duke in the Jimmy V Classic.  

Murray was clearly hobbled as he went 3-for-9 for 8 points against the Blue Devils and wasn't nearly as aggressive as he usually is.  With Murray at anything less than 100%, the Hawkeyes should not be 5.5-point home favorites over the Cyclones, let alone favored at all.  Iowa has been exposed when stepping up in class losing by 12 to Duke and by 13 to TCU against their two best opponents thus far.

Iowa State has had the last three days off and will the fresher, more prepared team.  Their defense travels as they rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency.  They are holding opponents to 37.3% shooting overall and 26.3% from 3-point range while allowing only 56.7 points per game.  They are holding opponents to 17.5 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover two of its last three games.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

15* UConn/Florida ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on UConn -4.5

The UConn Huskies are legitimately one of the top teams in the country.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS this season with all nine wins coming by double-digits.  That includes wins over Oregon by 24, Alabama by 15 and Iowa State by 18 on neutrals.

The Huskies rank 8th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense.  They are +27.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average.  Florida is only +13.8 points per game based on the same criteria, meaning UConn is 14 points better.  Yet they are only 4.5-point road favorites tonight, which is a discount.

Florida already has three losses this season and two of them were very concerning.  They lost outright as a 12-point home favorite to Florida Atlantic and were crushed by 29 by West Virginia on a neutral.  They also lost to Xavier by 7 on a neutral.  Their six wins have all come against overmatched competition with five of the wins coming as double-digits favorites.  When they have stepped up in class they have lost, and now they face their toughest opponent to date.

The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Connecticut Wednesday.

20* CBB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pennsylvania +14.5

Pennsylvania is catching too many points tonight.  The only blowout road losses they suffered came early in the season at Iona and at West Virginia.  Their other four losses have all come by 7 points or fewer, including a 7-point loss at Missouri which remains undefeated.

Villanova is way down this season and should not be laying 14.5-points to Pennsylvania, which is probably the best team in the Ivy League when at full strength, which they are right now.  The Wildcats are just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS this season.  Their three wins came over LaSalle by 13, Delaware State by 10 and Oklahoma by 3.

So the Wildcats haven't won by this margin all season.  They also suffered upset losses to Temple, Iowa State, Portland and Oregon.  Oddsmakers have not caught up to how poor this team is, and that is clearly the case again tonight listing Villanova as a 14.5-point favorite in a rivalry game here against a potent Pennsylvania squad.

Penn is 71-49 ATS in its last 120 games following two consecutive losses.  The Quakers are 47-24 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game.  The Quakers are 59-27 ATS in their last 86 road games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pennsylvania Wednesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Sam Houston State +10

Sam Houston State is 7-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road at Nevada.  That includes upset road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah as double-digit underdogs.  Oklahoma is 6-2 this season while Utah just beat Arizona to improve to 7-2 this season.  Nevada is also 7-2 this season.

Oklahoma State is clearly vulnerable this season.  The Cowboys were upset at home by Southern Illinois, upset on a neutral by UCF and lost by 10 at UConn.  They also only beat UT-Arlington by 11 at home and DePaul by 4 on a neutral.  Sam Houston State is more than capable of taking the Cowboys to the wire, so catching double-digits here is too much.

Sam Houston State is +11.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Oklahoma State is 15.3 points per game given the same criteria.  So the Cowboys are only +3.4 points per game better than Sam Houston State, thus this line should not be double-digits even when you adjust for home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. good shooting teams making 45% or better.  Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in its last six December home games.  The Bearkats are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 games overall, including 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games.  Bet Sam Houston State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +28

Memphis should not be a 28-point favorite over Little Rock tonight.  The Tigers have a way of playing to their level of competition.  They are 6-2 this season but their largest margin of victory has been 19 points.  Now they are asked to lay 28 points to Little Rock.

This despite Little Rock only losing one game by more than 22 points this season despite playing a tough schedule.  They only lost by 19 at Indiana as 28.5-point dogs, and Indiana is better than Memphis.

Memphis is +12.9 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Little Rock is -10.1 points per game given the same criteria, so 23 points worth than Memphis.  But we don't get to 28 even when adjusting for home-court advantage.  Then you have to factor in the sandwich spot, which shows Memphis coming off a win over Ole Miss and with Auburn on deck Saturday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.

Little Rock is 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Memphis is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Arkansas-Little Rock Tuesday.

15* CBB Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tarleton State +19.5

Tarleton State has been too good this season to be getting this many points even to Baylor.  The Texans are 5-3 this season with upset wins over Belmont by 8 and Boston College by 16.  They three losses all came to three very good teams and were competitive, losing by 3 at Arizona State as 14-point dogs, by 7 to Drake and by 12 at Wichita State.

Baylor is clearly down this season with two losses already, and the six wins mostly coming against overmatched competition with the exception of a 5-point win over UCLA and a 1-point win over Gonzaga.  They also lost by 26 at Marquette and by 7 to Virginia.  Tarleton is the best team they will have faced outside the Power 5 teams, and I think the Texans give them a run for their money tonight.

Tarleton is +5.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Baylor is 16.4 points per game given the same criteria, so 11.0 points per game better than Tarleton.  We don't get to 19.5 points even when we adjust for home-court advantage and strength of schedule here, so there's clearly value on the Texans.

Tarleton State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  Baylor is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.  Roll with Tarleton State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +10

Wisconsin-Milwaukee is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They have gone 7-3 SU this season with two of their losses coming on the road to Purdue and Iowa State, which are two Top 25 opponents and they were competitive with Iowa State.  They also lost by 4 to St. Thomas at home.

Milwaukee should not be catching double-digits tonight considering they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Chattanooga is 5-3 SU this season with three wins by 11 points or more over Oakland City, Covenant and Gardner Webb.  They aren't blowing out any decent teams as they only beat Murray State by 3 and Tennessee Tech by 7.  They also lost outright to Lipscomb at home.

Milwaukee is +4.2 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season.  Chattanooga is +5 points per game given the same criteria, only 0.8 points per game better than Milwaukee.  This line should be much closer to PK than 10.  Milwaukee is 7-0 ATS in its last seven December road games.  Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Kent State +15

Kent State is the most underrated team in the country. The Golden Flashes have gone 6-2 SU & 7-0 ATS this season.  Their two losses came by 2 at College of Charleston as a 2.5-point dog and by 5 at Houston as 19-point dogs.  Houston is 8-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Charleston is 8-1 and also one of the most underrated teams in the country.

If Kent State can play with Houston on the road, it can play with Gonzaga on the road.  Keep in mind the six wins by Kent State have all come by 15 points or more this season, too.  The Golden Flashes are +14.9 points per game versus what their opponents average on offense and defense this season.

Gonzaga is +17.4 points per game given the same criteria, which means they'd only be favored by 2.5 points over Kent State on a neutral if you don't adjust for strength of schedule.  But the Bulldogs are 15-point home favorites here, which is way too high given what we've seen from them thus far.

Gonzaga is one of the most overrated teams in the country at 5-3 SU & 2-6 ATS despite being favored in every game but one this season, which was a 19-point loss at Texas.  They only beat Xavier by 4 and Michigan State by 1, while also losing by 16 to Purdue and by 1 to Baylor.  They have played a tough schedule for once early in the season, and they have been exposed.  This is one of the worst Gonzaga teams we've seen in years.

The Golden Flashes are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Kent State is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win.  The Bulldogs are 3-12-2 ATS n their last 18 games overall.  Gonzaga is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Kent State Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +22

It's time to 'sell high' on the Missouri Tigers.  They are 8-0 against one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  They have played seven home games against bottom feeders and earned an 88-84 win at Wichita State last time out.  It's now a sandwich spot for the Tigers with Kansas on deck.

I think the Tigers will be flat for this one, and I think SE Missouri State is good enough to hang within 22 points today.  They are 5-3 on the season which includes an upset win at South Florida as an 11-point dog, an upset win at Evansville as a 2-point dog and a 13-point loss at Bradley.  They haven't lost a game by more than 16 points this season.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (Missouri) - after covering five or six of their last seven, a top team (80% or better) against a good team (60% to 80%) are 44-16 (73.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Redhawks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Redhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet SE Missouri State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on North Carolina +1

This is a great 'buy low' opportunity on the UNC Tar Heels.  They were the No. 1 ranked team in the country until losing three straight to Iowa State, Alabama and Indiana.  Now we are getting them as underdogs to a Virginia Tech team that will be a big step down in class for the Tar Heels.

Virginia Tech is 7-1 against one of the easiest schedule in the country.  They lost to College of Charleston, and their seven wins have come against Delaware State, Lehigh, William & Mary, Old Dominion (by 4), Penn State (by 2), Charleston Southern (by 5) and Minnesota.  This will be their toughest test yet, and it's worth noting UNC beat College of Charleston by 16.

Virginia Tech is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams that average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Tar Heels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with North Carolina Sunday.

20* St. John's/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. John's +7

Iowa State has been overvalued since an upset win over then-No. 1 UNC and also an upst win over Villanova the game prior.  Well, both those blue bloods are down this season as UNC has lost three straight, and Villanova is 3-5 this season.

The Cyclones have since failed to cover two in a row losing by 18 to UConn as 5.5-point dogs and only beating a bad North Dakota team by 19 as 24.5-point favorites.  They should not be favored by 7 over St. John's today.

The Red Storm are 8-0 this season with wins over Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska.  I know they have played the easier schedule, but this is a veteran team that got some great transfers and is better than they are getting credit for here with this lack of respect as 7-point dogs.

St. John's is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games.  Bet St. John's Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on North Dakota +16

Portland just got to play Michigan State, Villanova and UNC in a tournament in Portland.  They were flat in their 100-79 win over Multnomah Bible in the game following that tournament, and I still think they'll be lacking motivation here against North Dakota to win this game by margin.

North Dakota is playing very well of late.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They upset Elon as 6.5-point road dogs, upset Utah Tech by 15 as 3.5-point home dogs, upset CS-Fullerton by 16 as 5.5-point dogs and covered in a 19-point loss at Iowa State as 24-point dogs.

Portland is 2-18-1 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.  The Pilots are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after a combined score of 165 points or more.  The Fighting Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take North Dakota Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2.5

Missouri State has only played two home games this season.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and won their two home games by an average of 29.5 points per game.  Now they play their MVC home opener against Bradley, which is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS away from home this season and losing by 18.0 points per game.

Bradley lost by 22 at Utah State, by 21 on a neutral to Auburn and by 11 on a neutral to Liberty.  Missouri State beat a very good Middle Tennessee team by 24 at home.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as Missouri State is 21-5 SU in its last 26 home meetings with Bradley.  The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Braves with three wins by 15 points or more.

The Braves are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.  Bradley is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bears are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +10.5

Pacific has some impressive results despite the 3-5 record.  They only lost by 10 at Stanford as 15-point dogs, upset North Dakota State as 5.5-point road dogs and crushed North Dakota by 30 on the road.  They also upset Cal Davis as 6-point road dogs, so they have played their best away from home going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS.  Their four home losses all came by 4 point or less, too, so they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points this season.

Now they are catching double-digits here against a UC-Santa Barbara team that is clearly overvalued.  They have gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost outright by 9 as 9-point favorites at Northern Arizona, only won by 13 over Hampton as 17.5-point home favorites, won by 18 over North Alabama as 18-point home favorites, and lost by 11 at Duquesne as 3.5-point dogs.

Pacific beat UC-Santa Barbara 80-71 as 4.5-point home dogs in their lone meeting last season.  The Gauchos are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Pacific Saturday.

15* Arizona/Utah Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -6.5

The Arizona Wildcats are 6-0 this season behind an elite offense that is scoring 97.5 points per game on 60.3% shooting and 45% from 3-point range.  The Wildcats rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 1st in adjusted tempo and will run the Utah Utes out of the gym tonight.  They are also 43rd in adjusted defense.

Utah is off to a 5-2 start this season against a much softer schedule than Arizona has faced.  They lost to Mississippi State on a neutral and only beat Georgia Tech by 4 on a neutral.  But the concerning loss was the 10-point home loss to Sam Houston State as 10-point favorites.  And I give them zero chance of hanging around with the Wildcats in this one.

Arizona crushed Utah in both meetings last season winning 82-64 at home as 19-point favorites and 97-77 on the road as 11-point favorites.  So when comparing the spreads of both meetings last season, we are getting a discount here on the Wildcats as only 6.5-point road favorites.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Southern Indiana -4

Southern Indiana has been impressive this season going 3-3 against the 27th-toughest schedule in the country.  They only lost by 6 at Missouri as 19.5-point dogs, by 12 at Notre Dame as 14.5-point dogs and by 14 at St. Bonaventure.  They also went on the road and upset Bowling Green by 12, upset Southern Illinois by 18 at home as 9.5-point dogs and crushed Loras by 32.

Western Illinois opened the season with an upset win at Illinois State and a blowout home win over Rockford.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since with a 12-point loss at DePaul, a 33-point loss at UCF, a 24-point home loss to Youngstown State and an upset road loss at UTRGV.  They aren't very good.

Southern Indiana is +4.6 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow this season, while Western Illinois is -7.5 points per game.  So Southern Indiana is +12.1 points per game better than Western Illinois, and that doesn't even factor in their much tougher strength of schedule.  Southern Indiana should be much closer to a 10-point favorite tonight.

Western Illinois is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 games overall, including 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.  This team has almost zero home-court advantage with how terrible they have been.  Roll with Southern Indiana Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU PK

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the VCU Rams tonight.  They are 4-2 SU but 0-5 ATS this season with their two losses coming to Memphis and Arizona State.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season and winning by 11.7 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so this is a gift getting them at a PK against Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is a rebuilding team that lost their best player in Scotty Pippen Jr. (20.4 PPG) from last season.  They are off to a 3-3 start this season with home losses to Memphis and Southern MIss as well as a neutral loss to St. Mary's.  All three losses came by 9 points or more.  Their three wins have come against Temple, Fresno and Morehead State.  They also have four players questionable due to injury or illness tonight.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

15* Wyoming/Santa Clara Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Santa Clara -7

I like this Santa Clara team.  They are off to a 5-2 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more including neutral court wins over DePaul by 8 and Iona by 10.  Their two losses came on a neutral to UCF and on the road at Utah State.  They are 3-0 at home this season and are an elite offensive team.

But as much as I like Santa Clara, this is more of a play against Wyoming than anything.  They are without their two best players tonight in Hunter Maldanado (18.7 PPG last year, 14.7 PPG this year) and Graham Ike (19.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG last year).  They also could be without their second-leading scorer this season in Max Agbonkpolo (9.6 PPG), who is questionable today.

It's not wonder Wyoming is off to such a terrible start this season playing the entire way without Ike.  They are 3-3 SU & 0-4 ATS with their three wins coming against Colorado Christian, Nicholls State and Howard.  They lost outright at home as a 21.5-point favorite to SE Louisiana, lost to Drake and lost to Boston College by 11.  I see no way they can keep this game competitive against Santa Clara without Maldanado and Ike.

Santa Clara is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Wyoming is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  The Broncos are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  Bet Santa Clara Wednesday.

15* Baylor/Marquette FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Marquette +6.5

Marquette is 5-2 this season with its two losses coming to Purdue by 5 on the road and to Mississippi State by 3 on a neutral.  All five wins came by double-digits.  Well, Purdue and Mississippi State are a combined 13-0 this season.  Purdue just beat Duke by 19, Gonzaga by 18 and West Virginia by 12.  That 5-point loss looks real good now.

Baylor should not be a 6.5-point road favorite over Marquette tonight.  The Bears have faced such an easy schedule outside of their split with Virginia and UCLA in their tournament.  They lost to Virginia by 7 and beat UCLA by 5.  This will be the Bears' first true road game this season.

Marquette is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following two or more consecutive wins.  Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Golden Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Marquette is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Marquette Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Tarleton State -7

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  They did lost by 12 at Wichita State, but now they are back home for just the second time this season and take a big step down in class here against Weber State.

Weber State has been a massive disappointment this season at 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS.  You could see it coming though with just one returning starter and a lack of experience.  They lost by 17 at Washington, by 25 at Colorado State, by 7 to Riverside on a neutral and by 22 to Wright State on a neutral.  I have a hard time seeing them stay within 7 points of Tarleton State on the road given those results.

Tarleton State is +8.8 points per game when comparing what their opponents typically score and give up on the season, while Weber State is -4.0 points per game.  So Tarleton would be a 12.8-point favorite on a neutral based on those numbers, and they're at home here.  The Texans have played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country while Weber State has played the 76th, too.

Weber State is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds last game.  The Wildcats are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Weber State is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Take Tarleton State Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sam Houston State +4.5

Sam Houston State is one of the most underrated teams in the country and will prove it again tonight.  The Bearkats are 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  That includes a 52-51 upset win at Oklahoma as 16.5-point dogs in the opener as well as a 65-55 win at Utah as 10-point dogs.  

Oklahoma has since reeled off 6 consecutive victories including a tournament win over Ole Miss yesterday, so how good does that win look now?  The Bearkats have avoided letdowns despite those two wins with their other four victories all coming by 31-plus points.  They are outscoring opponents by 33.2 points per game on the season!

Now the Bearkats will go on the road and upset Nevada tonight.  This Nevada team is getitng too much respect for its 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS start against a pretty weak schedule.  The six wins over come against Utah Tech, Grand Canyon, William Jessup, UT-Arlington, Tulane and Akron.  They lone loss came to the best team they have faced in Kansas State by 9 on a neutral.  I'm not so sure Sam Houston State won't be the best team they have faced to this point.

Sam Houston State is 8-1 ATS in November road games over the last two seasons.  The Bearkats are 9-1 ATS vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Bearkats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Sam Houston State is 37-16-1 ATS in its last 54 games overall.  Roll with Sam Houston State Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Seattle +5.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 5-0 start this season covering the spread in their three lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound, 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites, 80-68 at Portland as 3.5-point dogs and 89-53 over Pacific Lutheran.  Portland just upset Villanova by 12, lost by 8 to UNC and lost by 1 to Michigan State over the weekend, so that 12-point win at Portland looks really good for Seattle now.

Washington is in a letdown spot after an upset win over St. Mary's as 10-point dogs last time out.  Keep in mind this is a Washington team that lost outright to Cal Baptist as 8-point home favorites, only beat Utah Tech by 11 as 16.5-point home favorites and only beat North Florida by 8 as 16.5-point home favorites.  So that upset win over St. Mary's was an aberration.  I think Seattle is the better team here and should not be the underdog.

Washington is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference home games.  Victor is 6-0 ATS in November games as the coach of Seattle.  Hopkins is 1-10 ATS in home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game as the coach of Washington.  Bet Seattle Monday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -3.5

The Penn Quakers were expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season because they returned five starters including three double-digit scorers and all of their top reserves.  They weren't healthy to start the season and lost four of their first five games against a brutal schedule with the four losses coming to Iona, Missouri, Towson and West Virginia.

But they have since gotten healthy and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a road win over Lafayette 74-68 as 5.5-point favorites, a 75-55 home win over Hartford as 19-point favorites and an 81-69 home win over Colgate as 4-point dogs.  Now they host Delaware and should roll at home here Sunday.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, and the Quakers have the better depth which will benefit them.  Keep in mind Delaware only beat Colgate by 4.  They also have lost their two true road games to Air Force by 4 and Duke by 34.  This is a true road game for Delaware, which lost four starters from last season that were all double-digit scorers.

Penn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Quakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Quakers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Roll with Penn Sunday.

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2

Oklahoma has been undervalued since a 51-52 upset home loss to Sam Houston State in the opener.  That loss doesn't look at bad now considering Sam Houston is 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with the other five wins all coming by double-digits since upsetting the Sooners.

Oklahoma has since gone 5-0 including covers in three of their last four games.  The last two have been very impressive with a 69-56 win over Nebraska as 6.5-point favorites and a 77-64 win over Seton Hall as 2-point dogs.  I think they hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season today.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to a 6-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They only won by 4 over Tennessee-Martin at home and none of their wins have come by more than 15 points despite the soft schedule of Tennessee-Martin, Alcorn State, FAU, Chattanooga, Siena and Stanford.  The Rebels will meet their match today as this is easily their toughest test yet.

The Rebels are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with a 95-49 win over Kansas Christian, an 89-81 upset win over Belmont and a 70-54 upset win over Boston College.  The Texans then hung tough with Drake in a 7-point loss at 7-point dogs, and that's a Drake team that most expect to win the Missouri Valley.  Now the Texans are a 7-point dog to a Wichita State team that lost three double-digit scores and another who averaged 8.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG last season.  

The Shockers returned only one starter and are rebuilding under Isaac Brown, who is 31-19 in his first two seasons here.  Wichita State lost 57-66 as 16-point home favorites to Alcorn State earlier this season and is just 3-2 this year.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Shockers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take Tarleton State Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +9

Tim Miles quickly turned around Nebraska.  He's doing the same at San Jose State now, especially with so much veteran experience and his best player returning.  The Spartans are off to a 4-1 start this season with their lone loss to a good Hofstra team.

The Spartans should not be this big of underdogs to North Texas when you look at what the Mean Green have done so far.  They did beat Fresno by 9 and Paul Quinn, but they lost by 30 as 10.5-point dogs to St. Mary's and nearly lost outright to Southern Nazarene in a 53-47 home win.  Those two results are very concerning for this inexperienced team.

The Mean Green are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  North Texas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  San Jose State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home after going over the total in its previous game.  These three trends combine for an 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with San Jose State Friday.

20* UNC/Iowa State ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -5

We are getting No. 1 ranked North Carolina at a discount today because they have opened 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS.  And they are coming off an 89-81 win over a pesky Portland team as 14.5-point favorites yesterday in what was basically a home game for them being played in Portland.  Now we get the Tar Heels as a single-digit favorite for the first time this season, and we'll take advantage.

Iowa State is overvalued off a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  They played three cupcakes in IUPUI, North Carolina A&T and Wisconsin-Milwaukee to open the season.  They did beat Villanova 81-79 (OT) yesterday, but that's a down Villanova team that already has three upset losses this season.

Now this is a tough spot for Iowa State after needing OT yesterday.  Four starters played more than 35 minutes for the Cyclones yesterday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Tar Heels, who can run them out of the gym and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Tar Heels are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  UNC is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss.  Bet North Carolina Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -5

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  They followed that up with a 75-51 win over a very good Middle Tennessee team as 2-point favorites.  They should be more than 5-point favorites over UNC-Wilmington today.

UNC-Wilmington already has three blowout losses to UConn by 26, Oklahoma by 21 and UNC by 13.  Their two wins have come against Allen and Mount Olive.  Missouri State is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games as a favorite.  The Bears are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a win.  The Seahawks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Missouri State Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

Sean Miller is 425-157 as a head coach including 123-48 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-1 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  They also lost to Indiana by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  That's an Indiana team that is also loaded this season and it's not a bad loss.  It will serve them well moving forward

Florida's 3-1 start is much more concerning.  They were double-digit favorites in three of the four games and only a 7-point favorite against a very bad Florida State team in which they won by 9.  But they lost outright at home to FAU as 12-point favorites and only beat lowly Kennesaw State by 10 as 20-point favorites.  It's a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Todd Golden and the Gators.

Golden is 9-24 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game as a head coach.  Miller is 59-35 ATS in road games when playing just his 2nd game in 8 days as a head coach.  Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Coastal Carolina +14

Missouri is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, who brought back just one starter this season.  You wouldn't be able to tell that with their perfect 5-0 record, but that record has them overvalued tonight.

The five wins have come against one of the easiest schedules in the country, and they were nearly upset a couple times.  All five wins came at home over South Indiana (by 6), Penn (by 7), Lindenwood, SIU Edwardsville and Mississippi Valley State.  They were favored by at least 12 points in all five games and only covered two of them.

Coastal Carolina went 19-14 last season under Cliff Ellis, who has spent the past 15 seasons here and has 44 years of experience as a head coach overall.  Ellis welcomes back his best player in Essam Mostafa (13.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG last year) plus two starters.  Mostafa is averaging 16.3 PPG, 13.3 RPG and 2.0 BPG through three games and is a force inside.

The Chanticleers won their first two games by 44 and 63 points against overmatched competition before a 1-point road loss at USC Upstate as 4-point favorites.  They will be refocused and fresh after that narrow defeat playing just their 2nd game in 12 days, getting plenty of practice time to grow together as a team.

I love Eastern Kentucky transfer Jomaru Brown (21.7 PPG, 61.5% 3-pointers) who was a great find in the transfer portal for Ellis.  Linton Brown (16.3 PPG, 42.9% 3-pointers) is also proving to be a good find.  Holdovers Josh Uduje (12.7 PPG, 40% 3-pointers) and Wilfred Likayi (5.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 50% 3-pointers) are also fitting in well with the newcomers.  The Chanticleers are shooting 42% from 3 as a team.

Coastal Carolina is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a SU loss.  The Chanticleers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.  The Tigers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a win.  Missouri is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Coastal Carolina Wednesday.

15* Syracuse/St. John's ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -3

Mike Anderson is in Year 4 at St. John's and should have his best team yet.  The Red Storm returned three starters this season and added DePaul transfer David Jones.  The Johnnies are off to a 5-0 start this season with four wins by 15 points or more plus a victory over a solid Temple team by 6.  That's a Temple team that has upset wins over Villanova and Rutgers already this season.

Jones (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) is off to a fantastic start in his first season with St. John's.  The three returning starters in Soriano (13.2 PPG, 11.2 RPG), Mathis (11.6 PPG, 55.6% 3-pointers) and Alexander (10.2 PPG, 5.0 APG) are gelling well with Jones, plus Illinois transfer Andre Curbelo (9.8 PPG, 5.8 APG).

Syracuse lost arguably its three best players from a year ago in Buddy Boeheim (19.2 PPG), Cole Swider (13.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Jimmy Boeheim (13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG).  I question head coach Jim Boeheim's motivation at this point after losing both his kids as he enters his 48th season.

Syracuse lost 80-68 to Colgate as a 7.5-point home favorite already this season for its lone loss, while beating two very bad teams in Lehigh and Northeastern.  The Orange did beat Richmond 74-71 (OT) last night, but that's a rebuilding Spiders team.

After playing an overtime game last night, this is now a brutal spot for the Orange.  They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days, while St. John's will only be playing its 2nd game in 5 days.  The Johnnies like to push the tempo and play relentless defensive, which will test the Orange's tired legs.  All five starters played at least 31 minutes for Syracuse last night, including 42 from Girard III and 40 from Williams.  The Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games.  Take St. John's Tuesday.

20* Creighton/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Creighton -1

The Creighton Bluejays are ranked in the Top 10 for good reason.  This team is loaded under head coach Greg McDermott.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS this season with one of their non-covers coming by half a point.  They just blasted a very good Texas Tech team 76-65 last night.

The Bluejays have four players averaging double figures scoring and three of them shoot 42% or better from 3-point range.  They are tough to defend.  They'll take on a reloading Arkansas team that lost all five starters from a year ago.  The chemistry for the Bluejays can be trusted much more than that of the Razorbacks early in the season.

Arkansas is 4-0 as well but against an extremely soft schedule of North Dakota State, Fordham, South Dakota State and Louisville.  That's the worst Louisville team we've seen in decades as the Cardinals are now 0-4 this season with losses to Appalachian State, Wright State and Belmont.

The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Creighton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Roll with Creighton Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Northern Arizona +27

I cashed in Texas +1 in a 93-74 victory over Gonzaga in their last game.  But I know a letdown spot when I see one, and this is  the definition of one.  The Longhorns won't be nearly as motivated to beat Northern Arizona as they were to beat Gonzaga.  And that's going to make it difficult for them to cover this massive 27-point spread.

Northern Arizona is no pushover, either.  The Lumberjacks returned all five starters this season and that chemistry is showing early.  They are 2-3 SU but 4-0 ATS against a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 18 at Michigan State as 21-point dogs, by 16 at Arizona State as 16.5-point dogs, and by 4 at Utah Valley State as 10.5-point dogs.

We've seen Michigan State beat Kentucky outright and only lose to Gonzaga by one.  We've seen Arizona State beat Michigan by 25.  So those losses look even better now.  Plus, the Lumberjacks also upset UC-Santa Barbara outright by 9 as 9-point dogs.  This team is grossly undervalued to start the season.

This game won't be played on Texas' home court either as it will be played on a neutral at Bert Ogden Arena in Edinburg, TX.  Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games away from home following a win.  Northern Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Longhorns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Roll with Northern Arizona Monday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS this season.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Hawkeyes now as whopping 30.5-point favorites over a decent Nebraska-Omaha team.  The Hawkeyes are coming off an 83-67 upset win at Seton Hall, which is a Pirates team with a first-year head coach and rebuilding.

Now this is a letdown spot for Iowa.  They return home for Thanksgiving Week and won't be nearly as motivated to beat Omaha as they were to beat Seton Hall.  They also the Emerald Coast Classic on deck against Clemson in Florida starting on Friday, so they will be looking ahead to it.  That makes this a sandwich spot for Iowa, and I don't think they'll be 100% focused, which is going to make it very difficult to cover this 30.5-point spread.

Even if the Hawkeyes were focused it would be hard to cover against this pesky Omaha team.  The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  They only lost by 25 at Kansas as 33.5-point dogs and by 14 at Nebraska as 17.5-point dogs while winning and covering against Idaho and losing by 10 to Ball State.  If they can stay within 25 of Kansas on the road, they can certainly stay within 30.5 of Iowa.

Omaha is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, including 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Nebraska-Omaha Monday.

20* CBB Tournament GAME OF THE WEEK on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Yesterday the Texans upset Boston College 70-54 as 3.5-point dogs.  That blowout win will keep them fresh for this 3rd game in 4 days, and it will actually only be their 3rd game in 11 days after having seven days off prior to this tournament.

Drake will be playing its 4th game in 8 days.  The Bulldogs have been in three straight battles that went down to the wire too, and fatigue will be a factor as a result.  They beat Wofford 80-72 as 12.5-point favorites, Buffalo 80-72 as 13-point favorites and Wyoming 61-56 as 5-point favorites.  This team is grossly overvalued right now and continues to be as 7.5-point favorites over a Tarleton State team that is more than capable of winning this game outright.  In fact, the Texans are probably the best team the Bulldogs have faced this season.

Drake is 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Tarleton State Monday.

20* CBB Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT On Tarleton State +5.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Now the Texans will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they are fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Boston College will be playing its 4th game in 10 days, so the Golden Eagles are far from fresh.  

The results have been concerning for the Golden Eagles as they are 1-3 ATS with a 2-point win over Cornell as a 9.5-point home favorite, a 4-point win over Detroit as an 8.5-point home favorite and an outright loss to Maine by 5 as a 20.5-point home favorite.  They should not be favored here.  Oddsmakers are putting too much stock in their 15-point win over a bad George Mason team on Friday as 3-point underdogs.  The Texans likely win this game outright.  Bet Tarleton State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on VCU +10.5

The Memphis Tigers are known for struggling early in the season under Penny Hardaway because he always has a new players every year and the chemistry is an issue.  The Tigers should not be double-digit favorites over VCU because of this.

Memphis opened with a 76-67 win at Vanderbilt, which is a rebuilding Commodores team.  That was evident when Vanderbilt lost outright by 12 as a 16-point home favorite to Southern Miss in their next day.  Memphis then lost by 6 at Saint Louis in a game they trailed by 14 with under four minutes to play.  Saint Louis is good, but they just lost 95-67 to Maryland as a 2.5-point favorite following that Memphis win.

I think this is a great time to 'buy low' on VCU.  The Rams went 22-10 last season and were expected to be one of the top teams in the A-10 this season.  But they have opened 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS, so they have been overvalued laying 22.5, 20, 4 and 4 points.  Now they are an underdog for the first time this season.  They beat Pittsburgh last time out and only lost by 4 to Arizona State, which just beat Michigan by 25 as a 7.5-point dog the game following the VCU win.

VCU is 20-5 ATS in its last last 25 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Rams are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points.  This is exactly the price range we want to be betting the Rams and it's a great 'buy low' spot.  Take VCU Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charleston +5.5

Charleston is clearly loaded this season.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  Their lone loss came at UNC on the road in which they covered.  They also beat Chattanooga by 7 as 4-point favorites, Richmond by 2 as 2.5-point favorites, Davidson by 23 as 3-point favorites and Colorado State by 10 as 1-point favorites.  

The Cougars should not be underdogs to Virginia Tech.  This is listed as a neutral court game but it's actually played on Charleston's home court.  Virginia Tech is rebuilding this season and is overvalued due to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule.  The first three wins came against Delaware State, Lehigh and William & Mary all at home.  They then struggled on a neutral to beat Old Dominion by 4 as a 14-point favorite and failed to cover as a 3-point favorite in a 2-point win over Penn State.

Charleston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Charleston is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Hokies are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Charleston Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-Irvine +3.5

UC-Irvine returned three starters and four players who logged at least 20 minutes per game last season.  The Anteaters went 15-10 last season and should be one of the better teams in the Big West. They're off to a very impressive 3-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season with a 69-56 upset win at Oregon as 15.5-point dogs and a 79-64 blowout home win over Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites.  Not having a letdown following that Oregon upset was mighty impressive.

Pepperdine has been much less impressive.  They are 3-1 against a soft schedule but lost 71-74 as 4-point road favorites at CS-Fullerton.  Their 94-80 home win over Vanguard University was lackluster in their last game coming in.  And I just don't think head coach Lorenzo Romar is very good.

UC-Irvine crushed Pepperdine 82-48 as a 10-point favorite last season.  Now the Anteaters come back as underdogs in the rematch, which makes zero sense to me.  They are the better team and should be favored in this game even if it is a road game as Pepperdine won't have much of a home-court advantage.

Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse.  Roll with UC-Irvine Saturday. 

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +3.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 3-0 start this season covering the spread in their two lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound and 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Portland State, which Portland beat 98-91 as a 15.5-point favorite.  Portland is 4-1 this season but lost to the best team they played 65-77 at Kent State.  The Pilots were supposed to be loaded this season returning all 5 starters from a 19-15 team.  They they are without Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG last year) and could be without Mike Meadows (10.2 PPG, 3.0 APG), who is questionable.

The spot really favors Seattle tonight.  They have had the last five days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they have had a ton of time to rest up and game plan for the Pilots.  Meanwhile, Portland will be playing its 6th game in 13 days to start the season.  They just played at Air Force on Thursday and only have one day to game plan for Seattle.  They are at a huge rest and preparation disadvantage here.

Seattle crushed Portland 84-68 at home and 84-72 on the road in the two most recent meetings.  The Redhawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pilots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Seattle Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -6.5

Youngstown State is loaded this season with three starters and three key reserves returning.  They went 19-15 last season and the Penguins are off to an impressive 3-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They won 92-81 at Canisius as 3.5-point favorites, won 90-72 at home over Tennessee-Martin as 8.5-point favorites, only lost 81-88 at Notre Dame as 10.5-point dogs and crushed Grace Christian 96-68 at home.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season with losses to Seattle by 14 as 3.5-point home dogs, Sacramento State by 10 as 2-point home favorites and at Navy by 9 as 5-point road dogs.

The spot really favors Youngstown State, too.  The Penguins have had the last three days off to rest up and game plan for UC-San Diego.  Meanwhile, the Tritons just lost to Navy yesterday and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, a rarity in college basketball that these players aren't used to.  Not only that but they went to OT with Navy yesterday, so all of their starters are gassed.  Three played 37-plus minutes.

UC-San Diego is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after playing a road game.  Youngstown State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games after a game where it made 78% or better from the FT line.  The Penguins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games coming off two consecutive games where they made 50% of their shots or better.  The Tritons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  Take Youngstown State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  Now they take on a Middle Tennessee team That lost their top two players from last season in Josh Jefferson (14.7 PG) and Donovan Sims (11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 100 assists).

Middle Tennessee has beaten up on two overmatched opponents at home in Brescia and Rice.  But in their lone road game they lost 68-76 at Winthrop despite being 2.5-point favorites.  Now they're on the road again here and this will be their toughest test of the season.  I think getting Missouri State as a short home favorite is an excellent value.

The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team that wins less than 40% of their road games.  Missouri State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite.  Middle Tennessee head coach MdDevitt is 0-6 ATS in road games after leading the previous game by 15 points or more at halftime as the coach of the Blue Raiders.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

20* Indiana/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Xavier +4

Sean Miller is 425-156 as a head coach including 123-47 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  Now they host the Indiana Hoosiers and should not be home underdogs in this game.  Indiana is getting too much credit for blowout wins over Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman to start the season.

Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games following a blowout win by 30 points or more.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Wrong team favored here.  Take Xavier Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Tarleton State +5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

This is a rebuilding year for Belmont.  They lost four starters and brought back just one double-digit scorer.  The Bruins are lucky they aren't 0-3 SU.  They beat Ohio 70-69 as 6-point home favorites, lost 74-89 at Furman as 9-point dogs and were upset 75-77 at Lipscomb as 3-point favorites.  They have no business being 5-point favorites over Tarleton on a neutral here given those ugly results thus far.

The Bruins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  Belmont is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on St. Thomas +5.5

St. Thomas played its first season in Division 1 last season.  It predictably didn't go great as they went just 10-20 overall.  But they returned their two best players from that team in Riley Miller (15.4 PPG) and Parker Bjorklund (12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG), who are both deadly from 3-point range.  Head coach John Tauer added several Division 1 transfers and one of the best prep recruiting classes in the conference, lead by the in-state duo of Ahjany Lee and Kendall Blue.

St. Thomas is off to an impressive 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  They blew out Chicago State 83-61 as a 9-point favorite and St. Francis 84-48 as an 8-point favorite.  Chicago State just upset Valparaiso as a 9.5-point dog last night.  But the loss may have been the most impressive.  St. Thomas only lost 72-60 at Creighton as a 28-point dog.  That's a Creighton team that is loaded and ranked in the Top 10.

Montana went 18-14 last season and did return a lot of their players, but clearly those players aren't very good when you look at their first two games this season.  Montana lost 91-63 at Duquesne as a 3-point underdog and 86-64 at Xavier as an 18-point dog.  Th Grizzlies have no business being a 5.5-point favorite against St. Thomas given what we've seen from these teams thus far.

The Tommies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  Keep in mind this is a neutral site game in Houston as well, so there's certainly no way Montana should be favored by this much, let alone favored at all.  The Grizzlies are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.  Roll with St. Thomas Thursday.

20* Michigan/Arizona State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Michigan -7

The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a 91-60 win as 8.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh yesterday at the Barclays Center.  They got to rest their starters late and also played the early game, so they will be the fresher team here against Arizona State.

Arizona State needed a second half comeback to beat VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point underdogs.  That win will have taken a lot out of them.  That was a VCU team that was without their best player in Patrick Balwin, who was a late scratch.  They will get blasted tonight against the best opponent they have faced this season.

Prior to that VCU victory, there were some very concerning results for Arizona State.  They only beat Tarleton State 62-59 as 14-point home favorites, beat Northern Arizona 84-68 as 16.5-point home favorites and actually lost outright at Texas Southern 66-67 as 11-point road favorites.  So they failed to cover three straight games against suspect competition and nearly lost two of them outright.

The Wolverines are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games.  The Sun Devils are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 neutral site games.  Arizona State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 non-conference games.  Bet Michigan Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on Portland -3.5

The Portland Pilots are loaded this season and a sleeper in the WCC.  They returned all five starters and 91% of their scoring from a team that went 19-15 in Shantay Legans' first year on the job.  Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG in 2021-22) has yet to play this season and is questionable tonight, but they are still loaded even without him.

The Pilots got off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 27, 37 and 8 points at home before going on the road and losing 65-77 at Kent State.  But the Golden Flashes are one of the best mid majors in the country as they are 4-0 this season with wins by 26, 22, 21 and that 12-point victory.  That loss to a very good Kent State team last time out has Portland undervalued tonight.

Now I expect the Pilots to bounce back in blowout fashion against Air Force tonight.  Air Force went 11-18 last season including 4-13 in Mountain West play.  They lost two of their best players from that team including leading scorer A.J. Walker (14.2 PPG in 2021-22).  They return only one double-digit scorer.

To no surprise, it has been a rough start for the Falcons.  They lost 58-62 at Bowling Green, only beat Delaware 75-71 at home and lost outright at home to Texas A&M Commerce 73-69 as a 10-point favorite.  They can't be losing to Texas A&M Commerce at home and expect to beat Portland, which will be by far their toughest opponent to date.

The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss.  The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Portland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss.  Take Portland Thursday.

20* Gonzaga/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +1

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 teams to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Christian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

Texas opened with a 72-57 win over a solid UTEP team before crushing Houston Christian 82-31 as a 31-point favorite.  The Longhorns could very well be the best defensive team in the country, and I look for them to shut down the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight.

We saw a chink in Gonzaga's armor with a 64-63 win over Michigan State as a 12-point favorite last time out.  The Longhorns can do the same.  They will be out for revenge from a 74-86 loss at Gonzaga last season.  That was a very good Gonzaga team, and they should be down a notch or two this season, while Texas is improved.  Plus, the Longhorns get them at home this time around.  Wrong team favored here in what is going to be a raucous atmosphere in Austin.  Roll with Texas Wednesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +20.5

The Houston Cougars are getting a lot of love after opening the season with two blowout wins over Northern Colorado and St. Joseph's.  While the Cougars are still loaded this season, they should not be favored by 20-plus points against a 'game' Oral Roberts team tonight.

The Cougars lost four double-digit scorers from last season in Edwards (13.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG), White Jr. (12.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG), Carlton (11.6 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Moore (10.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG).  Their backcourt is loaded, but their frontcourt will take a step back.

Oral Roberts is among the favorites to win the Summit League this season.  They went 19-12 last season and brought back four starters, including star G Max Abmas (22.8 PPG, 3.7 APG last year.  They returned six other players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season including Issac McBride (12.3 PPG) and Elijah Lufile (7.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG).

I was impressive with the 70-78 loss at St. Mary's as 9-point dogs in their opener that flashed the potential of the Golden Eagles.  St. Mary's beat Vermont 79-53 as an 8-point favorite and North Texas 63-33 as a 9.5-point favorite.  So that 8-point loss to the Gaels looks even better after seeing what St. Mary's has done against their other two opponents.

The Golden Eagles are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  Oral Roberts is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Golden Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after making 13 or more 3-pointers last game.  Oral Roberts is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after a game with 5 or fewer offensive rebounds.  The Golden Eagles will give the Cougars more of a fight than they bargained for tonight.  Roll with Oral Roberts Monday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland +10

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies got off to a great start this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  But they were probably caught looking ahead to Oklahoma State when they lost 82-87 as 7.5-point home favorites to Bowling Green last time out.  Alas, now that loss works in our favor here as Oakland is catching too many points in this game catching 10 at home.

Oklahoma State has been far from impressive this season.  After beating UT-Arlington 77-66 as a 20.5-point home favorite, the Cowboys lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Southern Illinois.  Now they are overvalued once again in their third game laying double-digits on the road to a game Oakland team that has pulled some big upsets in recent years against Power 5 schools, or at the very least hung tough.

Indeed, last year Oakland won 56-55 as a 17-point underdog at Oklahoma State.  The Golden Grizzlies only lost 71-84 as 22.5-point underdogs at Oklahoma State two seasons ago.  They've proven they can hang with this team already, and now they finally get them at home and are catching double-digits.  Roll with Oakland Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Georgia Tech -1.5

Two years ago Georgia Tech surprised everyone and won the ACC Tournament to make the Big Dance.  That makes their 12-20 season last year a disappointment.  But this is now a good opportunity to 'buy low' on the Yellow Jackets early this season.

Josh Pastner is a great recruiter and does have a pair of returning starters to work with.  But the excitement comes with a pair of transfers Gardner Webb star Lance Terry (14.3 PPG last year) and South Alabama's best player Ja'von Franklin (12.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG last year).  

The Yellow Jackets crushed Clayton State 93-63 behind a balanced effort with six players scoring in double figures.  Terry led the way with 16 points while Franking had seven points and five rebounds and wasn't even one of the ones in double-digits.  That's a good sign moving forward and shows this team may have better depth than expected.

But this play is more of a fade of Georgia State than anything.  Head coach Rob Lanier departed for SMU after leading the Panthers to two consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.  Now this team is getting way too much respect early in the season based on what they did in the past, not what they're going to do this season.

Indeed, the Panthers lost all five starters from last season.  First-year head coach Jonas Hayes, a former Xavier assistant, has his hands full.  Georgia State was unimpressive in a 76-59 win over Coastal Georgia in their opener.  This is a massive step up in class for this young, inexperienced team tonight.

Pastner is 28-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of the Yellow Jackets.  Georgia Tech beat Georgia State 72-62 on a neutral last year.  That was a bad GT team and a good Georgia State team, too.  No question the Yellow Jackets are the better team this season with the Panthers having to replace their entire starting 5.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Grand Canyon +2.5

Grand Canyon looks like the best team in the underrated Western Athletic Conference this season.  Bryce Drew replaced Dan Majerle ahead of the 2020-21 season and immediately led the Antelopes to their first-ever NCAA Tournament.  They went 23-8 last year in his third season with the program.

Drew welcomes back three starters this season including Jovan Blacksher (15.8 PPG, 124 assists last season).  The Antelopes are off to a 2-0 start this season beating Montana State 60-54 and SD Christian 101-50.  Nevada should not be favored here.  They are coming off an 84-71 win over Utah Tech.  

The Wolf Pack went 13-18 last season and Steve Alford is on the hot seat, which seams to happen everywhere he goes.  It won't get any better for the Wolf Pack this season considering they lose four starters that averaged double digits scoring last season in Sherfield (19.1 PPG), Cambridge (16.2 PPG), Washington (10.5 PPG) and Bramah (10.8 PPG).

Grand Canyon is 32-17 ATS in its last 49 games overall.  Nevada is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Wolf Pack are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after playing a game as a home favorite.  Take Grand Canyon Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pennsylvania +12.5

Penn is expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season.  It's easy to see why as they returned four starters including likely Ivy League Player of the Year Jordan Dingle (20.8 PPG), who scored at least 30 points six times last season.  Max Martz (10.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and Jonah Charles (6.7 PPG) are sharp shooters.  Michael Moshkovitz (5.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is a do-it-all type.

But Penn was blown out 78-50 at Iona as 6-point underdogs in the opener.  I think that result has them catching too many points tonight against Missouri.  That's an Iona team that is one of the best mid-majors in the country coached by Rick Pitino.  And they simply had an off night shooting 32.7%.

Look for the Quakers to come back and give Missouri a run for its money tonight.  Missouri only beat South Indiana 97-91 as 19.5-point favorites in the opener, a way more concerning result than Penn.  This is a clear rebuilding year for the Tigers coming off a 12-21 season and under a first-year head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State.  The Tigers lost five players that averaged at least 6.6 PPG last season and return only one starter.

Penn is 50-30 ATS in its last 80 road games following a road loss.  Steve Donahue is 15-6 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of Penn.  Donahue is 15-3 ATS in road games after a game where his team made 33% of their shots or worse as a head coach.  Donahue is 45-22 ATS as a road dog of 10 points or more as a head coach.  Take Penn Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night Line Mistake on Fordham +19.5

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson will be a key contributor right away.

The Rams are off and running with an 88-74 win over Dartmouth as 7-point favorites in their opener.  Quisenberry led the way with 20 points while Moore had 18.  Third-year starter Kyle Rose had 11 points and JC import Antrell Charlton scored 16 points.

While I like this Fordham team and think they are undervalued to start the season, this play is more of a fade of Arkansas.  They lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers.  I think they will struggle in the early going despite Eric Musselman bringing in some great talent to replace them.  

The Razorbacks only beat North Dakota State 76-58 as 22.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a NDSU team that lost four starters and three double-digit scorers from last season.  I would make Fordham a substantial favorite over NDSU, so I have to take the 19.5 points with the Rams here.  The Rams are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Roll with Fordham Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland -6.5

Oakland went 20-12 last season and brought back three starters from that team including G Jalen Moore (15.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Trey Townsend (13.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG).  Head coach Greg Kampe also brought in an impressive haul of transfers, including Rocket Watts (Michigan State & Miss State), Lorne Bowman (Wisconsin) and Keaton Hervey (Missouri State).

The Golden Grizzlies are off and running this season with a 92-27 win over Defiance, which wasn't too 'defiant' in this one.  Now they should roll Bowling Green, which narrowly escaped with a 62-58 home win over Air Force in their opener.

Bowling Green looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC this season.  The Falcons went 13-18 last season including 6-14 in MAC play.  They don't return a single double-digit scorer and lose their three best players in Plowden (15.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Reece (11.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and Diggs (9.5 PPG, 66 3-pointers).  There are seven newcomers and I expect chemistry to be an issue early for this team.

The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Roll with Oakland Friday.

20* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Iona -2.5

Rick Pitino is turning this Iona program into a monster. The Gaels went 25-8 last season including 17-3 in the MAAC.  They returned three starters from that team including MAAC Player of the Year candidate Nelly Junior Joseph (13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 69 blocks).

The Gaels are off and running this season with an impressive 78-50 home win as only 6-point favorites against what was expected to be a very good Penn team.  The three returning starters in Joseph, Slazinski and JeanLouis combined for 41 points.  Newcomer Daniss Jenkins led the way with 19 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists and could prove to be one of the best guards in the conference when it's all said and done.

Hofstra is getting respect tonight due to upsetting Princeton 83-77 as a 2-point underdog in the opener.  But that is keeping this line lower than it should be, and it's providing us with some line value to pull the trigger on Iona.  Hofstra returned its best player, but lost three starters in Ray (13.4 PPG), Cooks (12.2 PPG) and Ayiola (7.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG).  One guy cannot beat this balanced Iona team.

Iona is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Hofstra is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games.  Bet Iona Friday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass -2

The UMass Minutemen made one of the best hires of the offseason grabbing Frank Martin from South Carolina.  He took the Gamecocks to the Final Four in 2017.  He is great at turning around programs and loves a challenge.

But the cupboard isn't bare for Martin.  He welcomes back one of the best point guards in the Atlantic 10 in Noah Fernandes (14.9 PPG) and shooter T.J. Weeks Jr. (9.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG) in the backcourt.  Fernandes had a team-high 147 assists last season while Weeks shot 36.9% from 3-point range.

Martin put his reputation as a talented recruiter and evaluator of talent to use.  He nabbed Louisville transfer Matt Cross and UConn transfer Rahsool Diggins, who were both Top 100 recruits out of high school.  He also brought in a couple big men with him from South Carolina in Ta'Quan Woodley and Wildens Leveque.  Dyondre Domingquez is a key returnee that should see more action.

The Minutemen are off to a great start to the Martin era with a 94-67 win as 17-point home favorites over Central Connecticut State.  I think Towson is getting too much love early in the season after going 25-9 last year and beating up on a bad CAA Conference.  They only beat Albany 67-62 as 16.5-point home favorites in their opener.

The Minutemen are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference home games.  UMass is 28-13-2 ATS in its last 43 home games overall.  Roll with UMass Thursday.

20* CBB Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle -3

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

UC-San Diego looks like the worst team in the Big West this season.  They went 13-16 last year and now lose leading scorer Toni Rocak (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) along with Jake Killingsworth (7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG).

Seattle beat UC-San Diego 73-51 as 4-point home favorites last season.  I think we are getting a discount on them as 3-point road favorites this season considering they return better talent and experience than UC-San Diego.  Bet Seattle Monday.

15* UTEP/Texas CBB ANNIHILATOR on Texas -22

Texas opens the season ranked No. 12 in the country and for good reason.  Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and went 22-12 in his first season in Texas.  The Longhorns should be even better this season, which is saying something considering they were one of only 10 games to rank in the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings last season.

The Longhorns return Marcus Carr (11.4 PPG), Timmy Allen (12.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and CHristian Bishop (7.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) as three starters.  They bring ing Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunters (11.0 PPG) who scored in double figures 20 times last season.  Sir-Jabari Rice was a double-figure scorer three consecutive years at New Mexico State.  Freshman Dillon Mitchell was the No. 5 ranked overall player in the 2022 class.

UTEP went 20-14 last season but loses four starters from that team.  Their lone returning starters is Jamari Sibley (5.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG).  They lose their two best players by far Jamal Bieniemy (14.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG), Souley Boum (19.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG).  This looks like a rebuilding years in El Paso.  Roll with Texas Monday.

20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Fordham -6

The Fordham Rams are in a good position early in the season with all of their veteran experience returning.  They bring back four starters from a team that went 16-16 last year.  Kyle Neptune leaves for Villanova which is a job he earned, but Keith Urgo was Neptune's right-handed man and is ready for the job with 20 years of coaching experience at Penn State, Villanova and Fordham.

Four players who started at least 17 games last season are back, led by one of the A-10's best guards in Darius Quisenberry (16.2 PPG).  I like Georgia Tech transfer Khalid Moore and 6-8 freshman Elijah Gray.  PG Will Richardson and SG Noah Best will also be key contributors right away.

I'll gladly fade Dartmouth, which looks like the worst team in the Ivy League.  Dartmouth went 9-16 last season and loses four starters from that team, including Brandan Barry (14.6 PPG, 41.1% 3-pointers) and Aaryn Rai (12.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG).  This is clearly a rebuilding year for head coach David McLaughlin, who is 46-92 in his six seasons at Dartmouth.  The Rams are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Take Fordham Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Tennessee -35.5

The Tennessee Vols are ranked No. 11 in the country to start the season and for good reason.  They went 27-8 last season and return four starters from that team in Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Ollvier Nkamhoua (8.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) and Uros Plavsic (4.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG), plus Zakai Diegler (8.8 PPG).

The Vols add in the 12th-ranked recruit in the 2022 class in Julian Phillips, a top-100 prospect in B.J. Edwards, a two-time first-team All-MVC performer in Tyreke Key from Indiana State.  The Vols dominated the non-conference last season and I expect them to easily cover this 35.5-point spread in the opener.

Tennessee Tech went 11-21 last season and looks like one of the worst teams in the Ohio Valley this season.  They lost all five starters from that team who all scored at least 7.8 PPG.  Their leading returning scorer averaged 7.5 PPG.  They had a former student manager that was pressed into action last season.  The Volunteers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference home games.  Take Tennessee Monday.

20* UNC/Kansas Championship Game No-Brainer on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks have been dominant in their last two games.  They beat Miami 76-50 before taking a 10-0 lead against Villanova and never looking back in an 81-65 victory.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in nine of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have also been impressive in pulling three upsets to make the title game as the 8th seed.  They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they will meet their match in the Kansas Jayhawks.  A couple factors have me thinking the Tar Heels cannot hang with the Jayhawks.

The main one is the injury to UNC's most important player in Armando Bacot.  He suffered an ankle injury late in the win over Duke and was noticeably limping up and down the court when he came back into the game.  He won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bacot has 30 double-doubles this season and is one shy of David Robinson's record.  They will miss his defense and rebounding when he's hobbling around out there.

There's no such thing as a letdown in a title game.  But with all the hype surrounding their win over rival Duke, it's going to be hard for the Tar Heels to match the intensity they played with in that back-and-forth game here just two days later.  They had to play in the late game while Kansas got to sit around and watch, and the Jayhawks will be the fresher, more prepared team because of it.  Bet Kansas Monday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks showed their true potential when they outscored Miami by 32 in the second half to win 76-50 and claim their spot in the Final Four.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in eight of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

Give Villanova credit for making it this far despite really only going six deep consistently.  But now they suffered a huge blow with the loss of G Justin Moore, who suffered a torn achilles in the win over Houston last round.  Moore (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is someone they could not afford to lose.  Now their lack of depth is exacerbated with the loss of Moore, and I give them little to no chance of keeping this game with Kansas competitive.

Kansas is 8-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats will fall behind in this game and they won't be able to play catch up without Moore.  His loss isn't being factored enough into this line.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* St. Bonaventure/Xavier NIT No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -1.5

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have had the much tougher path to the NIT semifinals than the Xavier Musketeers have.  They are the better team as well and should be bigger than 1.5-point favorites over the Musketeers in essentially a pick the winner situation.

The Bonnies are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets on the road as underdogs in the NIT over Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia just to get here.  You know this veteran team that returned all five starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team isn't about to squander this opportunity now.  They are 'all in' to win the NIT and this will be their easiest test yet.

Xavier has been grossly overvalued in the 2nd half of the season.  The Musketeers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They got to play three straight home games in the NIT to get here against Cleveland State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.  And they were in dog fights with Cleveland State (won by 4) and Vanderbilt (won by 2).  Keep in mind they lost their best player in their win over Florida in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) and he is out for the remainder of the tournament.

The Bonnies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as favorites.  The Musketeers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Xavier is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  St. Bonaventure is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

20* Miami/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The ACC has proven to be the most underrated conference in the NCAA Tournament with three teams in the Elite 8.  And Miami has been the most underrated team in the ACC this season.  Note that they beat UNC by 28 and upset Duke on the road as 15-point underdogs while also losing to Duke by just 4 as 8.5-point dogs in the ACC Tournament.

I was on Miami in their first two NCAA Tournament games as they upset both USC and Auburn.  I regret not taking them against Iowa State, too.  I won't make that mistake here as I will back the Hurricanes catching too many points against Kansas.  These are two mediocre defensive teams that can light you up on offense and I think this line should be much closer to a PK.

Miami has some of the best guards in the country and I actually favor their guards over Kansas here.  Remy Martin will be a defensive liability for Kansas.  McGusty (17.5 PPG, Wong 15.5 PPG and Moore (12.5 PPG) are all studs, and big man Waardenburg (43.4% 3-pointers) is a matchup nightmare.  In fact, each of Miami's five starters all shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Kansas has had the much easier path to the Elite 8 and has struggled to put away each of the last two teams after blowing out Texas Southern.  They only beat Creighton 79-72 as 12.5-point favorites, and that was a Creighton team missing two starters.  They only beat Providence 66-61 as 6.5-point favorites, and the Friars were fortunate to make it this far winning so many close games this year.  Look for this game to go down to the wire against Miami as well.

The Hurricanes are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Hurricanes are 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Arkansas/Duke Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +4

Duke had about everything go right for them in their Sweet 16 comeback win over Texas Tech down the stretch.  They couldn't miss a shot or a free throw.  Their zone defense confused Texas Tech in the 2nd half as they weren't prepared for it.  Arkansas will be prepared for everything, and Duke won't be catching them by surprise here, nor will they be as hot as they were down the stretch of that game.

Arkansas proved what it was capable of with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga as 9.5-point underdogs last round.  The Razorbacks basically just continued playing they way they have all 2nd half of this season.  Indeed, they are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall with two of those losses by 4 points or less.  So they have lost just one of their last 21 games by more than 4 points, making for a 20-1 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to this 4-point spread.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and playing some terrible defense down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have allowed 73 or more points in six of their last seven games.  Arkansas is the much better defensive team, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted defense.  They have allowed 76 or fewer points in 19 of their last 21 games, and 68 or fewer in 12 of those.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team catching points here.

Duke is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make 31% or less of their 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 1-5 all-time in the Pacific Time Zone in the NCAA Tournament.  This will be the Razorbacks' 2nd consecutive trip to the Elite 8 so they have that experience, and they will have just that extra motivation to make the Final 4 this time around.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

20* Houston/Villanova Elite 8 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars look like the best team in the country.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their wins over UAB by 14, Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12 in the NCAA Tournament couldn't have been any more impressive.

You can rely on the Cougars to be the tougher team and the better defensive team every time they hit the floor, and that can take you a long way.  They rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.  Nothing ever comes easy against the Cougars, and they are tough to defend on offense because they are so balanced.

Villanova has faced the easier path to this point by far, beating Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan.  They have managed to get by those last two teams in close affairs thanks to some clutch FT shooting down the stretch.  But I don't expect them to have the lead down the stretch to put that FT shooting on display.  And the Wildcats really only go six deep, so I expect the Cougars to wear them down, especially having to play their 2nd game in 3 days here.

Houston is 9-1 ATS in neutral court games this season.  Villanova is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  This will also essentially be a home game for the Cougars being played in San Antonio, TX.  I just love this Houston team and I'm willing to ride them as far as they will take me as long as the price is right, and it's right here as a short favorite.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* UNC/UCLA Sweet 16 No-Brainer on on UNC +2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels proved none of this was a fluke with their 93-86 (OT) upset win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Baylor in the Round of 32.  And that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate.  The Tar Heels led by 25 in the 2nd half before Brady Manek was inexplicably thrown out of the game, and PG Caleb Love fouled out.  Give the Tar Heels credit for surviving those two key losses and winning the OT.  That kind of win will give this team the confidence they need to beat UCLA Friday.

After a 57-53 scare as a 13.5-point favorite against Akron, everything went right for UCLA in its 72-56 win over St. Mary's last round.  The Bruins shot 56.5% as a team against a very good St. Mary's defense, which is definitely fluky.  They used their athleticism to dominate the Gaels.  That won't work against the Tar Heels, who are one of the most athletic, talented teams in the country.  It also won't help that UCLA's best player in Jaime Jaquez Jr. is nursing and ankle injury suffered against the Gaels and won't be 100% for this one.

UCLA is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. ACC opponents.  The Bruins are 3-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Friday.

15* Vanderbilt/Xavier NIT ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 19-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.  They handled their business against Dayton and Belmont in the first two rounds of the NIT.

Xavier is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with four losses by double-digits and an upset loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament.  They survived Cleveland State by 4 as 11-point favorites and then beat Florida thanks to the Gators shooting just 32.8% from the field.  They won't be so fortunate against Vanderbilt, the best team they have faced in the NIT thus far.  They may not have their best player in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG), who suffered a knee injury against Florida and is questionable.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-16-4 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  Vanderbilt is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  The Musketeers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 14-5 SU & 13-6 ATS in all games away from home. 

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.  Then they upset USC in the opening round as 2-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 18th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Walker Kessler away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Auburn has been grossly overvalued down the stretch in going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers should not be laying 7.5 points to the Hurricanes today.  Miami is 23-8-1 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Iowa State/Wisconsin CBB No-Brainer on Iowa State +5

It has been a bad look for the Wisconsin Badgers in their last three games.  They lost outright to Nebraska as 13.5-point favorites, lost outright to Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites and needed a late surge to put away Colgate 67-60 as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover.

The Badgers have been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season winning almost all of their close games, so their record is inflated.  They actually rank 7th in KenPom's luck factor, and he makes them less than a 1-point favorite over Iowa State on a neutral.  I agree with that number and think there's value with the Cyclones here.

Iowa State struggles against explosive offensive teams with athletic big men.  That's not Wisconsin.  The Badgers rely on defense and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They are very similar to LSU, which Iowa State upset 59-54.  This is going to be another ugly, low-scoring defensive battle where points are at a premium.  I always like siding with the dog in this spot.

Iowa State is a perfect 14-0 SU in non-conference games this season with upset wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa and LSU.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as favorites.  Bet Iowa State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 18-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Dayton has some key injuries that I don't think they'll be able to overcome here on the road against an underrated team from the SEC.  The Commodores are fully healthy and will have a big home-court advantage here as the fans are excited to see this team in the postseason.  I watched them handle Belmont last round and bet on them, and I'm backing them here again as a short home favorite.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

20* Houston/Illinois CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -4.5

The Houston Cougars are a legit national title contender.  They are consistently undervalued in the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars have gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and won the AAC Tournament by winning all three games by double-digits.  Then they beat a very good mid-major team in UAB by 14.

Illinois was fortunate to even advance to face Houston.  They only led for 25 seconds against UT-Chattanooga and managed to pull out the 54-53 victory.  They won't be so fortunate against one of the best teams in the country here in Houston.  

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  They don't have the guards to match these elite Houston guards.  The Cougars have the big men inside to stifle Kofi Cockburn.  So the difference in this game is Houston is going to dominate Illinois on the perimeter.

Houston is 7-1 ATS in neutral court games this season and 24-9 ATS in its lsat 33 neutral site games.  The Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sunday games.  Bet Houston Sunday.

20* Memphis/Gonzaga CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +10.5

Gonzaga got a tough draw having to face this red-hot Memphis team in the Round of 32.  The Bulldogs are legitimately on upset alert because the Tigers are showing down the stretch how good they can be when they play up to their talent potential.

Memphis is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall with its only losses coming to Houston and SMU.  Note that Memphis also upset Houston twice during the regular season before losing in the AAC Championship Game to the Cougars, which is too be expected.  They also avenged a loss to SMU with a win over the Mustangs in the conference tournament.  Then they made easy work of Boise State in the opening round leading by double-digits throughout.

Gonzaga actually trailed Georgia State with 13 minutes to go before going on a crazy run to make the final score look like a blowout when it was really a competitive game.  The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I just don't think this Gonzaga team is nearly as dominant as last year's version that made it to the National Championship Game.

Memphis has the athletes that are going to give the slower Bulldogs problems.  Jalen Duren has the size inside that will make life way more difficult on Gonzaga big men Timme and Holmgren.  Things won't come as easy for them as they are used to due to the size and athleticism of Memphis as a whole.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Memphis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games and remember, they won the NIT last year so they have that experience that has helped them this postseason.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.  Take Memphis Saturday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a veteran team loaded with seniors that returned all five starters from last season.  They were disappointed they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they are putting all their chips in one basket to try and win that NIT.

That was evident in their 80-68 road win at St. Louis as 3.5-point underdogs in the opener.  St. Louis has one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so that win was no small feat.  Now they are catching 6 points at BYU and I don't think BYU is any better than St. Louis.

Northern Iowa is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  BYU is disappointed to be playing in the NIT after choking down the stretch, going 6-6 SU in its last 12 games overall with all six wins coming as a favorite of 7 points or more, including five as double-digit favorites in games they were supposed to win.  They were also upset outright three times as favorites.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Northern Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  BYU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* St. Peter's/Murray State CBB No-Brainer on Murray State -8

The Murray State Racers are 31-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

Look for the Racers to make easy work of a St. Peter's team that is coming off a historic upset over Kentucky on Thursday.  It's very common for teams that pull a huge upset in the first round to fall flat in the second round.  I think that will be the case for the Peacocks here.  Murray State is a legitimate Final 4 contender, while St. Peter's is a one-hit wonder.

It was a bad look for the Peacocks in the non-conference as they lost to Stony Brook, Siena, St. Francis-NY, St. John's by 21 and Providence by 14.  Keep in mind Kentucky led by 8 with just a couple minutes left before falling in OT.  And Murray State led by 9 over San Francisco with three minutes left before foul trouble and injuries had the Dons making the comeback to force OT.  But Murray State is back to full strength for this game as they got lucky in the injury department coming out of that game unscathed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (St. Peter's) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS since 1997.  Murray State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -11.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are playing up to their potential now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won the Big 12 Tournament and then blasted Texas Southern 83-56 in the opening round.  Now they'll make easy work of the Creighton Bluejays.

Give Creighton credit for going 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  They even lost starting PG Ryan Nembhard a few games ago and played well without him.  They overcame a 9-point deficit in the final two minutes to beat San Diego State in overtime in the opening round.

Unfortunately for the Bluejays, that OT win came at another cost.  They lost their best big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.7 BPG) in the closing minutes of that SDSU game to a season-ending injury.  He led the team with 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG on 72.7% shooting in four postseason games and it's a huge blow.  Kansas is going to get whatever it wants in the pain against the Bluejays without Kalbrenner as a rim protector, and they are going to be much easier to defend without him as well.

Plays on neutral court teams (Kansas) - an explosive offensive team averaging 76 PPG or more against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Jayhawks are going to run the short-handed Bluejays out of the building today.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* UNC/Baylor CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor is nowhere near as good as they were last year when they won the NCAA Tournament.  I'm expecting an early exit from them, and it may just come here against the Tar Heels.  They are still without LJ Cryer (13.5 PPG) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and these losses are going to prove too tough to overcome.

The Bears have been overvalued for over a month going just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They barely beat Iowa State at home in their regular season finale and then went on to get upset by Oklahoma in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament.  They did crush a bad Norfolk State team in the opening round, but that has them overvalued here.

The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  North Carolina is 7-1 ATS after two straight games making 78% of its free throws or better this season.  Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

20* Colgate/Wisconsin CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Wisconsin -7.5

I cashed in Providence yesterday over South Dakota State as the Jackrabbits were the single most popular upset pick in the tournament.  Providence was grossly underrated all season and continued to be as only 2-point favorites over SDSU in the opening round.  Well, like most think Providence is a lucky team, most also think Wisconsin is a lucky team.

The Badgers won the Big Ten regular season title thanks to winning almost all of their close games.  That's the same route Providence took by winning almost all their close games.  I think it has the Badgers undervalued as only 7.5-point favorites over Colgate in the Round of 64.  Colgate is a very popular upset pick here.

This will essentially be a home game for the Badgers being played in Milwaukee, WI which I think is getting overlooked.  I was not impressed with Colgate in the non-conference as they had losses to NC Statel, Harvard, Northeastern, Pittsburgh and Lehigh by single-digits and St. John's, Monmouth, Vermont, Niagara and Cornell by double-digits.  

They did most of their damage against the weak Patriot League.  They played the 339th-ranked schedule in the country while Wisconsin played the 19th.  Colgate ranks just 203rd in the country in adjusted defense and it's hard to trust a single-digit underdog that defends that poorly to keep it close against a top-notch program like Wisconsin.

Colgate is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 non-conference road games.  Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  The Badgers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  Take Wisconsin Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chattanooga +8

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season.  The Fighting Illini are 22-9 SU & 13-18 ATS this season.  They have a great big man in Kofi Cockburn, but their guards are very underwhelming surrounding him.  The Fighting Illini are definitely on upset alert in the Round of 64.

Chattanooga went 27-7 this season and what is most impressive about that is they didn't lose a single game by more than 11 points, so they were competitive in all 34 games.  That 11-point loss came at Murray State, which went 30-2 this season and is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chattanooga has a very good big man in Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa (11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG), who can match up with Cockburn inside.  The Mocs are 55th in adjusted offense and 93rd in adjusted defense, so they are balanced.  They also played the 89th-toughest schedule in the country, so they are battle tested.  They upset VCU on the road, which is no small feat.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Mocs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss but a SU win.  Chattanooga is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss overall.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Chattanooga Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -4

The Alabama Crimson Tide are cheap in the Round of 64 as only 4-point favorites over Notre Dame.  This team was overvalued during the regular season due to what they did last year, going just 11-20-1 ATS.  But that's why we are getting them at a discount because they have been money burners all season.

Alabama played the #1 toughest schedule in the entire country.  So they are battle-tested heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I like the fact that the Crimson Tide play at the 11th-fasted pace in the country, which will have them capitalizing on the tired legs of Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish will indeed be tired.  They had to go to double-overtime on Wednesday to defeat Rutgers in Dayton, Ohio.  Then they had to take the long flight Wednesday night to San Diego, CA.  They can't possibly have much left in the tank after that effort and that flight, and I expect it to show in their play Friday night.  Look for the Crimson Tide to run them out of the building.

Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games as an underdog.  The Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Plays on favorites (Alabama) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami +2

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS in all games away from home.  This game will be played in Greenville, SC and if anything they will have the home-court advantage over USC, which has to travel across the country.

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 17th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Isaiah Mobley away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

USC comes in struggling having gone just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  The lone win was a 4-point victory over Washington as 6.5-point favorites in the conference tournament.  They lost to UCLA twice by 10 and 6 points and to Arizona by 20 at home.  I don't trust the Pac-12 much in this tournament outside of Arizona and perhaps UCLA.

The Hurricanes are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs, including 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  USC is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Trojans should not be favored over the Hurricanes in this one.  Roll with Miami Friday.

15* CBB Friday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Purdue -16

Purdue went 11-0 in the non-conference this season with seven wins by 20 points or more.  I fully expect them to crush Yale by more than 16 points in the Round of the 64 in the NCAA Tournament Friday.

Yale has some concerning losses in the non-conference that makes me believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Purdue.  The Bulldogs lost 44-80 at Seton Hall, 64-86 at Auburn, 60-87 at St. Mary's and 77-91 to Iona on a neutral.  Purdue is better than all of those teams with the exception of perhaps Auburn.

I just don't think the Bulldogs have the firepower on offense to score with Purdue.  They rank 209th in adjusted offense this season and average just 7 made 3-pointers per game at a 33% clip.  Purdue ranks 3rd in adjusted offense this season and makes 9 3's per game at a 39.1% clip.

Yale is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers went 0-9-1 ATS in their final 10 Big Ten games this season which is keeping this number shorter than it should be.  This is actually a great 'buy low' spot on them.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Murray State -1.5

The Murray State Racers are favored for good reason.  They went 30-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

San Francisco shouldn't have even made the NCAA Tournament.  Every time they stepped up in class they lost this season.  Their lone signature win was at home against Davidson early in the season.  They lost to Loyola-Chicago, BYU, Gonzaga (three times by double-digits) and St. Mary's (twice).  They didn't earn hardly any resume building wins.

Now the Dons have to travel across the country to face Murray State in Indianapolis Thursday.  This will essentially be a home game for the Racers as it is less than a five-hour trip from Murray, Kentucky to Indianapolis and you know their fans will be there to support this historic team.  San Francisco will be without 1st-team All-WCC F Yauhen Massalski (13.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG), who played the first 31 games of the season before having to sit out against Gonzaga with a knee injury.

San Francisco is 1-9 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Dons are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Racers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Murray State Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing some of the best basketball in the country with the exception of their loss to red-hot Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game.  The Razorbacks are still 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I think that loss to the Aggies has bettors worried about them, but I'm not one bit.

Arkansas checks all the boxes of a team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  They are 16th in adjusted defense and 40th in adjusted offense while rank 28th in tempo, so they like to push the pace.  They are a good rebounding team and they take care of the basketball.

There is simply too much love for Vermont in the opening round.  Yes, the Catamounts have won eight straight, but they played in one of the easiest conference in the country.  They have the 332nd-ranked strength of schedule while Arkansas is 44th.  We saw Vermont struggled when they stepped up in class in the non-conference with double-digit losses to both Maryland and Providence and upset losses to UNC-Greensboro and Oakland.  This will be by far their toughest test to date.

The Catamounts are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Razorbacks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vermont is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Vermont is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make less than 31% of their 3-pointers this season.  Arkansas is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana +3

The Indiana Hoosiers have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less to Purdue, Iowa and Rutgers.  So they haven't lost any of their last eight games against some great Big Ten teams by more than 3 points, and here they are catching 3 points against an overrated St. Mary's team from the WCC.

I love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as underdogs in a game they can win outright.  They have been through the gauntlet and showed their resolve in a 66-58 win over Wyoming in the First Four Tuesday.  I like the fact that they already have a game under their belts, and they also beat Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament before losing on a buzzer-beater to Iowa.  They are battle-tested in these win-or-go-home situations.

St. Mary's lost to three NCAA Tournament teams in the non-conference in Wisconsin, Colorado State and San Diego State.  I would argue Indiana is better than all those teams other than Wisconsin, and right now they may be playing better than the Badgers.  Indiana went 9-1 in non-conference play this season with its only loss coming by 2 points in OT at Syracuse.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  St. Mary's is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Gaels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as favorites.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* SDSU/Providence CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence -2

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are the world's most popular underdog this in the opening round to pull the upset.  We'll gladly fade that bias and take the value by backing 4th-seeded Providence as only a 2-point favorite over 13th-seeded South Dakota State in the Round of 64.

Providence has gotten no love all season.  Everyone has called them overrated but they just kept winning games, going 25-5 this season.  And here they basically just have to win to cover as slight 2-point favorites.  Providence gets after it defensively and ranks 32nd in adjusted offense, while the Jackrabbits rank a woeful 223rd in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State feasted on an easy conference and schedule.  While Providence played the 56th-toughest schedule, SDSU played the 249th.  They lost to Alabama by 16, Washington by 11, Idaho by 14 and Missouri State by 12 in the non-conference.  They also had several close wins in conference play.  This will be their toughest test of the season with perhaps the exception of that game against Alabama.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Providence) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Providence is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  Bet Providence Thursday.

15* NIT Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Nicholls State +15.5

SMU thought they were going to the NCAA Tournament.  It's safe to say they are disappointed they are playing in the NIT.  That's going to make it hard for them to cover this massive 15.5-point spread against Nicholls State because they are lacking the motivation to do so.

Nicholls State really impressed me with some of their non-conference results.  They upset Northern Iowa as 14.5-point road dogs, only lost by 13 at TCU as 13.5-point dogs, only lost by 3 at Wisconsin as 17.5-point dogs and only lost by 14 at Purdue as 29-point dogs.  If they could stay within 14 of all four of those teams on the road, they can certainly stay within 15.5 of SMU in this flat spot for the Mustangs.

SMU is 1-8 ATS in its last nine March games.  Nicholls State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games after failing to cover three of its last four against the spread.  SMU is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games vs. good teams that win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Mustangs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  Roll with Nicholls State Wednesday.

15* NIT Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -7.5

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are 16-2 SU & 12-6 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per game.  They should be much more than 7.5-point favorites over Towson in the opening round of the NIT Wednesday night.

Towson has lost to ACC teams each of the last two seasons in the non-conference with a loss at Pittsburgh this season and a 35-point loss at Virginia last season.  Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh by 16 in its lone meeting this season.

Wake Forest is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after going over the total in each of its last two games this season.  The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as favorites this season.  Take Wake Forest Wednesday.

20* Indiana/Wyoming First Four No-Brainer on Indiana -3.5

The Indiana Hoosiers saved their best basketball for last.  It was impressive watching them go from outside the bubble of the NCAA Tournament to in by going 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Their three losses all came by 3 points or less to Rutgers, at Purdue and on a neutral against Iowa.  They also won and covered against Maryland and Minnesota in the regular season and then upset both Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament.  They lost on a buzzer-beater to Iowa, which is one of the hottest teams in the country.

Wyoming was fortunate to even make the NCAA Tournament, becoming the 4th team from the Mountain West to make it which seems absurd.  The Cowboys went 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in their final nine games.  Mountain West teams always struggles in the NCAA Tournament due to playing an easy schedule, while the Big Ten teams always do well due to playing such a tough regular season schedule.

The Hoosiers will have a big home-court advantage here with thousands of fans making the 2-hour, 45-minute trip from Bloomington to Dayton for the First Four.  Indiana is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 80 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.