Warning: Use of undefined constant PAGE_HEADER - assumed 'PAGE_HEADER' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/profe126/jesseschule.com/respsportscapping.php on line 15
PAGE_HEADER

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on VCU -1.5

Saint Louis is overvalued after a 13-1 start this season against the 345th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Billikens have played just one true road game all season, and 11 of their 14 games were on their home floor.

I love fading teams to start conference play in road games when they haven't played many or any road games up to this point.  It's a shock to the system, and this will be by far and away their toughest game of the season to this point.

VCU is 11-4 this season against the 205th-ranked schedule.  The Rams went to the wire with Utah State, NC State and New Mexico in those three losses by 3, 6 and 3 points, respectively.  The only game they weren't competitive was against Vanderbilt, which is ranked 6th in KenPom and 14-0 on the season.

The Rams are 8-1 at home this season outscoring opponents by 20.9 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the Atlantic 10.  VCU is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Louis.  Bet VCU Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +9.5

The Florida Gators are overrated after winning the national title last season.  They lost all their star guards off that team and just aren't nearly as good this season because of it.  They are 9-5 SU & 4-10 ATS this season, consistently laying too many points.  Asking them to win by double-digits to beat us tonight is asking too much.

Georgia is one of the most underrated teams in the country and vastly improved this season.  The Bulldogs are off to a 13-1 start with their lone loss coming to Clemson in OT.  In their lone road true game this season, they crushed Florida State 107-73.  Florida beat Florida sState 78-76 at home to give these teams a common opponent.

Former Florida head coach Mike White is out to get his former team, and these games tend to go down to the wire.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 5 points or fewer.  This number is too big tonight as the Bulldogs are lacking the respect they deserve and will earn it tonight.  Bet Georgia Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +6.5

No conference has a bigger home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  So getting 6.5 points with Wisconsin at home tonight is a tremendous value even though on paper Purdue is clearly the better team.

But this is a night game so it will be a raucous home atmosphere in favor of the Badgers, who are 8-0 SU & 5-3 ATS at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 24.0 points per game at home this season.  That includes recent wins over Marquette by 20 and Northwestern by 12.

Purdue will be playing just its 3rd true road game of the season here.  The first two came at Rutgers and at Alabama, and I think this will be their toughest test yet.  They have a recent common opponent in Marquette, who the Boilermakers also beat by 20 at home.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -2

Nebraska is off to a 13-0 start this season as one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Huskers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that will be on display tonight as they host Michigan State in their Big Ten home opener.

The Huskers have won 17 straight games dating back to the NIT last season.  They went on the road and upset Illinois 83-80 as 9-point dogs which followed up their 90-60 home win over Wisconsin as 2.5-point favorites to move to 2-0 in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has only played one true road game all season, and it was a lackluster 76-72 road win at Penn State as 12.5-point favorites.  The Spartans will be in over their heads here in what will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet Nebraska Friday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +15.5

The Colorado Buffaloes won't have their normal home-court advantage today with students home for Christmas Break.  They also won't have it due to playing another team from Colorado here in Northern Colorado, which will be the more motivated team to prove their chops against a Power 4 opponent.

Colorado has been grossly overvalued going 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games.  The Buffaloes only beat Cal Baptist by 8 as 12.5-point favorites, lost at Colorado State by 5, only beat Portland State by 11 as 16-point home favorites and lost on a neutral to Stanford by 9 as 3-point favorites.

We saw Cal Baptist and Portland State take Colorado to the wire on the road, and Northern Colorado is better than both of those teams.  The Bears are 9-3 this season with their 3 losses coming by 1, 7 and 11 points.  That 11-point loss was impressive because it came on the road at Texas Tech as 25-point dogs in their last road games.  If they can hang with Texas Tech, they can certainly hang with Colorado.  Bet Northern Colorado Sunday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +25.5

Northern Colorado is 9-1 this season with its only loss coming by a single point to St. Thomas on a neutral.  The Bears are one of the better mid major teams in the country, and they should not be catching 25.5 points to Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS this season.  They only beat Sam Houston State by 21 as 31.5-point home favorites, Milwaukee by 17 as 27.5-point home favorites and Wyoming by 4 as 19.5-point home favorites.  This role of big home favorite has not gone well for them this year, and it won't go well for them tonight, either.  Bet Northern Colorado Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Toledo +24.5

This is an obvious letdown spot for the Michigan State Spartans.  Their last four games have come against Penn State, Duke, Iowa and North Carolina.  It's safe to say they won't be nearly as motivated to beat Toledo as they were to beat those four times.

Toledo hasn't lost a game by more than 15 points all season.  The Rockets are a very good offensive team that ranks 90th in adjusted offense.  They have the firepower to keep up with the Spartans, especially since Michigan State ranks just 288th in adjusted tempo.  There will be fewer possessions in this game which will make it tough for the Spartans to get margin.  

We've seen this play out for Michigan State against teams that profile similarly to Toledo already this season.  Michigan State only beat Colgate by 11 as 22-point home favorites and San Jose State by 19 as 24-point home favorites.  They also failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites against Detroit.  This is my favorite spot to fade the Spartans at home when they have to get margin, because it is so difficult for them to do so.  Bet Toledo Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois -9.5

No team in the country has bigger home/road splits than the Nebraska Cornhuskers over the last several seasons.  The Huskers simply do not lose at home, but they also do not win on the road.  And this will be their first true road game of the season.

There's a reason the Huskers are nearly double-digit underdogs here despite their perfect 10-0 record.  They are in a massive letdown spot after a 90-60 home win over Wisconsin which followed up a 71-50 home win over Creighton.  Things could not have gone any better for them in those two games, most notably poor shooting by their opponents.

This will now be by far Nebraska's toughest test of the season after facing just the 156th-toughest schedule in the country to this point.  Illinois is much more battle-tested facing the 36th-toughest schedule.

Illinois has two losses, but both came on a neutral to two of the best teams in the country in Alabama and UConn.  They also have a neutral court win over Tennessee by 13, a home win over Texas Tech and an impressive road win at Ohio State.  This Nebraska team is actually a step down in class for them compared to what they have faced thus far.

The Fighting Illini rank 5th in adjusted offense and 24th in adjusted defense with very few weaknesses.  They have won 9 of their last 10 meetings with the Huskers with their lone loss coming in OT on the road.  They have won their last five home meetings with the Huskers with four of those wins coming by double-digits.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -10.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are like the Michigan Wolverines right now as oddsmakers just can't set their spreads high enough.  Those are the top two teams in Kenpom currently.  They have failed to set this number high enough, too.

The Cyclones are 9-0 SU & 7-1-1 ATS this season with eight wins by 16 points or more.  They beat Mississippi State by 16, Creighton by 18 and Syracuse by 31 on neutrals.  They beat No. 1 ranked Purdue by 23 in a true road game last time out which was the most impressive single result for any team this season if it wasn't Michigan's 40-point win over Gonzaga on a neutral.

If Iowa State was playing anyone but Iowa off that Purdue win, this would be a letdown spot.  But the Cyclones will have no problem getting back up to face their in-state rival tonight.  I expect them to make easy work of the Hawkeyes tonight.

Iowa is getting some respect after a 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS start this season.  But the Hawkeyes have benefited from the 209th-ranked schedule with six home games against overmatched competition.  They did beat Ole Miss and Grand Canyon on a neutral, but in their lone true road game they lost 71-52 at Michigan State.  

I see this game playing out just as poorly for them in their 2nd true road game in what will be a very hostile atmosphere at Hilton Coliseum.  I also think the Hawkeyes are very predictable with only Bennett Stirtz (18.8 PPG) averaging more than 8.8 PPG for the Hawkeyes.  Stop Stirtz and you stop the Hawkeyes, and one of the best head coaches in the country in TJ Otzelberger will have the answers for him tonight.  Bet Iowa State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on UT-Martin +8.5

UT-Martin has played its best basketball in true road games this season.  The Skyhawks actually went 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three true road games against very good competition.  They upset UNLV 86-81 as 17.5-point road dogs, upset Bradley 78-67 as 15.5-point road dogs and hung with Florida State in a 87-73 loss as 20-point road dogs.

This will be the easiest true road game of the season to this point for the Skyhawks, and I fully expect them to stay within this 8.5-point spread against Southern Illinois.  The Salukis are 5-4 this season with their five wins coming against McKendree, Kansas City, Delaware, Little Rock and High Point.  Three of those teams rank outside the Top 279 in KenPom plus McKendree.

UT-Martin is holding opponents to 9.0 points per game below their season averages defensively.  Southern Illinois is actually allowing 1.1 points per game more than their opponents typically average.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team here in the Skyhawks, and fade a poor shooting Salukis team that ranks 341st in 3-point percentage at 27.4%.  Bet UT-Martin Wednesday.

15* Illinois/Ohio State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State +5.5

Illinois is overvalued off a 13-point win over an overrated Tennessee team on a neutral on Saturday.  Keep in mind they only beat Texas Tech by 4 at home, and lost outright to Alabama and UConn (by 13) on a neutral already this season.  This will now be their first true road game of the season and their Big Ten opener, and they should not be favored at Ohio State.

This Buckeyes team looks like a wagon this season with a home win over Notre Dame and a road win at Northwestern to open Big Ten play.  Their only loss came by a single point at Pitt.  I love the balance at the top with Thornton (20.1 PPG), Tilly (14.1 PPG), Mobley Jr. (14.0 PPG) and Royal (13.4 PPG).  They have the horses to give Illinois a run for its money tonight.  Bet Ohio State Tuesday.

15* Clemson/BYU ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson +6.5

Clemson has wins over Georgia and West Virginia on a neutral this season.  The Tigers suffered both losses in true road games at Georgetown by 5 and at Alabama by 6.  They are back on a neutral here at Madison Square Garden, and I don't expect them to suffer their first loss by more than 6 points tonight.

BYU is 6-1 with a 2-point loss to UConn.  The win over Wisconsin was impressive, but the narrow wins over Miami and Dayton were not.  I just think this Cougars team is overrated.  They are not 6.5 points better than Clemson on a neutral.  I have this spread closer to 3.  Bet Clemson Tuesday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5

Northern Iowa is one of the few teams in the country that returned almost everyone from last season.  The chemistry has been there for the Panthers as a result, leading to a 7-1 start that has featured an upset road win over UC Irvine and a 21-point win over Loyola-Chicago on a neutral.

Wichita State has five new starters this season.  The Shockers are 5-4 this season beating the five worst teams they have faced, and losing to the four best.  They don't have a win over a team that ranks inside the top 225 on Kenpom.  They won't be beating Northern Iowa which slots in at 91st, either.  

This will be a big home-court advantage with a Saturday night game for the Panthers.  They are 5-0 at home this season outscoring opponents by 26 points per game.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on William & Mary +14

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 8-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 7-1 ATS in lined games and have played seven of their first 10 games on the highway against the 85th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits as it's tough to prepare for.

George Washington is also off to a solid 7-2 start this season but it has come against the 279th-ranked schedule.  That's nearly 200 spots easier than the slate that William & Mary has faced.  They also lost to the two of the three best teams they played in McNeese State and Murray State, and only beat USF by 4.  The Revolutionaries have no business being a 14-point favorite tonight.  Bet William & Mary Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Buffalo +6.5

Buffalo is 8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season and one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Bulls upset Depaul by 13 as 18.5-point underdogs.  They have had the last week off and will be very motivated to return home for just their 5th home game of the season after an 18-point win at Canisius.

St. Bonaventure is one of the more overrated teams in the country after a 8-1 start to the season.  But the Bonnies are just 3-5 ATS in lined games.  They beat Canisius by 19 at home to give these teams a common opponent, whereas Buffalo beat Canisius by 18 on the road.  Five of their 18 wins have come by single-digits.  Bet Buffalo Saturday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on William & Mary +6.5

William & Mary is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Tribe have opened 7-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to St. John's and to Richmond (by 4).  They are 6-1 ATS in lined games and have played six of their first nine games on the highway against the 124th-ranked schedule.  Their up-tempo style is giving teams fits, and it will give Duquesne fits tonight, too.

Duquesne is 5-2 this season with an upset loss to Northwestern.  All five wins came against teams ranked outside the Top 200 and they needed OT to beat Queens.  They have played the 347th-ranked schedule in the country.  This is a bad team that will get exposed tonight.

Duquesne is allowing 80.3 points per game this season with defense being optional.  That's real poor when you consider how weak their schedule has been.  They can't be trusted to be a 6.5-point favorite here against a better William & Mary squad.  Bet William & Mary Tuesday.

15* Gonzaga/Michigan TNT ANNIHILATOR on Gonzaga -2

Gonzaga looks like the most complete team in the country.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their seven games this season despite playing the 64th-ranked schedule.  They beat Oklahoma by 15, Creighton by 27, ASU by 12, Alabama by 10 and Maryland by 39 in their five toughest games.  Nobody has even pushed them.

Michigan will push them, but this will also be by far the toughest test of the season for the Wolverines.  Michigan needed OT to beat Wake Forest as 15-point favorites on a neutral and only beat a bad TCU team by 4 as 7.5-point road favorites.

Gonzaga ranks 4th in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense in the entire country.  The Bulldogs have a massive home-court advantage with this game being played in Las Vegas as their fans always travel well to Vegas every year for the WCC Tournament, and they've shown out in a big way for this Players Era Festival as well.  Bet Gonzaga Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Virginia Tech -5

Virginia Tech is one of the most improved and thus most underrated teams in the country.  The Hokies are 5-0 this season led by four players who are all scoring at least 12.6 points per game in Hansberry (16.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG), Avdalas (15.2 PPG, 5.8 APG), Lawal (14.8 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 2.0 BPG) and Bedford (12.6 PPG).

The Hokies have impressive wins over Providence in OT on a neutral as 2-point dogs and Saint Joe's by 35 as 12.5-point home favorites.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat Colorado State in this Battle 4 Atlantis Opener.

Colorado State is a rebuilding team with four new starters under first-year head coach Ali Farokhmanesh.  The Rams have played one of the easiest schedules in the country at 343rd out of 366 teams.  To not be 5-0 is a bad sign for this team.

The two poor performances that really stand out are a 14-point win as 18.5-point home favorites against Cal Poly and a outright loss to Denver as 19-point home favorites.  That's a Denver team that lost by 30 to Arizona and is 2-4 on the season.  I don't think the Rams are ready to hang with a team the caliber of the Hokies here.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* CBB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Denver +34

Arizona is in a massive letdown spot.  The Wildcats are coming off consecutive huge wins over UCLA by 4 and UConn by 4.  It's just human nature for them to not be nearly as motivated to face Denver when they return home from the East Coast tonight.

Denver has been undervalued this season going 4-1 ATS.  The performances on the road have been very impressive.  The Pioneers only lost by 11 at Seattle as 12.5-point dogs and by 14 at Washington as 27.5-point dogs.  

They also pulled off two outright upsets beating Montana State by 2 as 7.5-point dogs and Colorado State by 2 as 19-point dogs.  They are clearly much better than anyone realizes and should not be catching 34 points here in this Arizona letdown spot.  Bet Denver Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Akron -1.5

Akron is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Zips are 5-1 SU & 5-0 ATS with their only loss coming by 18 at Purdue as 18.5-point dogs.  Purdue is arguably the best team in the country.

The spot really favors the Zips.  They crushed Iona by 21 on Friday and Evansville by 38 on Sunday in the first two rounds of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Island.  They were able to rest their starters late and will still be very fresh for this game against Yale.

Yale struggled against two bad teams in its first two games.  The Bulldogs only beat Green Bay by 6 as 17-point favorites on Friday and Charleston by 11 on Sunday.  They had to play their starters the full minutes yesterday and won't be nearly as fresh as Akron will be for this one.  

They Bulldogs also lost outright as 8.5-point home favorites to Rhode Island in their game prior to this tournament and Stony Brook by 7 as 20-point favorites the game prior.  It's clear to me the Zips are the better team in the better spot today.  Bet Akron Monday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State -3

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  Then they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.

The Wildcats were happy to be back home for a 91-85 win over Campbell as 1-point favorites in which they led by 22 with 10 minutes to go.  Now they have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to get another home win over UT-Arlington.

This is a bad UT-Arlington team picked to finish near the bottom of the WAC.  The Mavericks went 13-18 last season and returned just one starter from that team in Raysean Seamster, the only current player averaging in double figures scoring for them.

UT-Arlington is coming off a 71-67 loss to Campbell yesterday to give them a common opponent with Weber State.  The Mavericks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 5 days, while the Wildcats have had the last two days off.  This rest advantage is just an added bonus as the Wildcats are the much superior team anyway.  Bet Weber State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee-Martin -8

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  They gave Florida State all they wanted in a 87-73 road loss as 20-point dogs last time out.

Now the Skyhawks take a big step down in class here against a Prairie View A&M team they should blow out.  They are picked to finish near the bottom of the SWAC alongside two of the worst teams in the country in Arkansas Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State.

It's easy to see why as the Panthers lost all five starters from last season after Braelon Bush (13.4 PPG) decided to transfer to Chicago State late in the process.  This is a team that went 5-27 last year and is well on its way to another disastrous season.

Prairie View A&M lost 105-62 as 20-point dogs at Wichita State, by 27 at Oklahoma State and by 18 at Missouri.  It won't get much easier against this underrated Tennessee-Martin squad today, and another double-digit loss is in store for the Panthers.  Bet UT-Martin Saturday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cal Poly +13.5

Utah is 5-0 with four wins by 9 points or less.  The Utes are one of the most overrated teams in the country due to that unblemished 5-0 SU record, but they are 0-5 ATS and I don't expect them to cover tonight, either.

They beat San Jose State by 9 as 12.5-point favorites, Weber State by 3 in OT at 15.5-point favorites, Holy Cross by 18 as 21-point favorites, Sam Houston State by 6 as 13-point favorites and IPFW by 8 as 13-point favorites.  That win over IPFW was really bad when you consider IPFW is 2-4 this season with a 12-point loss to a bad WMU team, a 26-point loss to Ohio State and a 19-point loss to Grand Canyon.  IPFW's only two wins came against Boyce and Dominican IL.

Cal Poly is better than most those teams that Utah has already faced.  And we've seen Cal Poly play well on the road already upsetting Seattle as 10-point road dogs, only losing by 14 as 18.5-point dogs at Colorado State and only losing by 8 as 7.5-point dogs at Montana.  That's a very good Montana team that already upset UNLV on the road and nearly upset Texas A&M on the road in a 5-point defeat.  

Utah is in for another dog fight tonight.  The spot favors the Mustangs as they've had the last five days off to prepare for this game.  Utah will be playing its 2nd game in 3 days after that lackluster 8-point win over IPFW on Tuesday.  Bet Cal Poly Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Weber State -2

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats have played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  And last time out they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.  It's safe to say they are happy to be back home tonight and will take advantage and get in the win column.

Weber State takes a big step down in class here against the Campbell Camels.  It's a rebuilding Campbell team with 32-year-old Florida assistant John Andrzejek.  They lose four of their top five scorers from a team that went 15-17 last year.

Campbell was blasted by 32 at Wisconsin and then played a competitive game at rebuilding West Virginia in a 8-point loss in their first two games of the season.  They failed to cover in a 9-point win as 9.5-point favorites against a bad Western Michigan team at home.  They are coming off a blowout home win over Mid Atlantic Christian.  Bet Weber State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Mount St. Mary's +20.5

Maryland is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Buzz Williams.  The Terrapins are 1-3 ATS beating Coppin State by 22 as 28.5-point favorites, losing outright at home to Georgetown by 10 as 5-point favorites, and only beating Alcorn State by 20 as 29.5-point favorites.

But the Terrapins are now getting too much respect off their 89-82 upset road win as 8.5-point dogs at Marquette.  That's an overrated Marquette team that also lost by 23 to Indiana.  It also sets the Terrapins up for a letdown spot after Buzz Williams beat his former team.  They have the Player Era Festival on deck in Las Vegas, making this a sandwich spot as well.

Mount St. Mary's has been impressive going 3-1 ATS against a very tough schedule.  The Mountaineers only lost by 16 at WVU as 19.5-point dogs, beat St. Francis by 8 as 6.5-point road favorites and only lost by 17 as 25.5-point dogs at Cincinnati.  If they can hang with WVU and Cincinnati, they can certainly stay within 20.5 points of this Maryland team tonight.  Bet Mount St. Mary's Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento State +28.5

It has pretty much been a staple since Mick Cronin took over at UCLA.  The Bruins play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and they are a poor shooting team.  That makes it difficult for them to cover these inflated spreads.

It's clear the Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country after a 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS start this season.  They have failed to cover their four spreads by a combined 56.5 points.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point favorites.

First-year head coach Mike Bibby has injected some new life into this Sacramento State program.  They are off to a 3-2 start this season with both losses coming at the wire by 4 at UC Davis as 5-point dogs and by 5 at home to UCSB as 7.5-point dogs, covering the spread in both games.  He has an elite trio of scorers in Jeremiah Cherry (18.2 PPG), Prophet Johnson (16.4 PPG) and Mikey Williams (16.4 PPG) running the show.  They will relish this opportunity to compete with UCLA tonight.  Bet Sacramento State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wichita State +10.5

Wichita State is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Shockers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS covering their first three games by a combined 51 points.  Now they take on one of the more overrated teams in the country in Boise State.

That was evident when Boise State lost outright to Hawaii Pacific in their opener.  Last time out, the Broncos barely escaped with a 4-point win as 17-point home favorites against Montana.  They have no business being a double-digit favorite tonight against the Shockers.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee-Martin +20.5

This is a play against a Florida State team in a clear letdown spot.  The Seminoles are coming off a 78-76 loss as 17-point dogs to defending national champ Florida.  It's safe to say they won't be nearly as motivated to beat UT-Martin as they were Florida.

That result against the Gators also has the Seminoles getting too much respect here as 20.5-point favorites.  This is a rebuilding FSU team with a first-year head coach who have opened 3-0 ATS and are getting some love now.  Florida is nowhere near as good as last season, so that result is a little misleading to say the least.

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  It looks as though this is clearly one of the more underrated teams in the country, and they prove it once again tonight by going on the road and hanging with Florida State.  Bet Tennessee-Martin Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -4.5

I like the fact that Kentucky already has a loss this season so we are getting the Wildcats at a discount.  They lost on the road 96-88 as 6-point dogs at Louisville, one of the best teams in the country.

The Wildcats responded with a 99-53 win over Eastern Illinois easily covering as 35.5-point favorites.  Now they will take down this overrated, poor shooting Michigan State team that is 3-0 thanks to three home games to open the season.  This game will be played on a neutral at Madison Square Garden.

Michigan State has not been impressive at all.  The Spartans beat Colgate 80-69 as 22-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Colgate team that suffered a bad loss to Northwestern at home, and barely beat Drexel by 7 and Siena by 3.  They beat Arkansas 69-66 as 2.5-point home favorites.  That's an Arkansas team that nearly lost outright to Samford 79-75 at home.  And they beat San Jose State 79-60 as 24-point favorites.  That's a 1-3 San Jose State team whose only win came against Bethesda.

The problem all season for the Spartans is going to be a lack of shooting as they are 256th in effective FG percentage (47.2%) and 352nd in 3-point percentage (21.7%) to this point despite the soft schedule.  They face an elite Kentucky offense that is already 8th in offensive efficiency, 18th in effective FG percentage (59.7%) and 1st in 2-point percentage (66.2%).  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

20* Florida/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +10.5

The Florida Gators are grossly overvalued this season after winning the National Championship last season.  They lost all their best guards from that team that led them to the title.  And they are failing to live up to expectations thus far.

The Gators are 2-1 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright to Arizona as 3.5-point favorites, failed to cover as 43.5-point favorites against North Florida, and escaped with a 2-point win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites here against Miami.

The Hurricanes will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They had the money to spend and did so in bringing in Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson, Indiana transfer Malik Reneau and New Mexico transfer Tru Washington.  5-star recruit Shelton Henderson won gold with USA U-18 and flipped from Duke to Miami.

The Hurricanes are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season.  They opened with a 17-point win over Jacksonville as 19-point favorites to barely miss the cover.  They blasted Bethune-Cookman by 40 as 16.5-point favorites and covered in a 41-point win over Stetson as 34.5-point favorites.  That's the same Bethune-Cookman team that took Auburn to OT and only lost by 9 at Dayton.

Reneau (21.3 PPG), Donaldson (16.3 PPG, 6.0 APG), Washington (14.0 PPG) and Henderson (12.3 PPG) have bene awesome thus far and the chemistry is clearly there already.  The Hurricanes will give the Gators a run for their money tonight.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +20

This is a fade of Purdue in a horrific spot.  The Boilermakers are coming off a 87-80 upset road win at Alabama.  They have Memphis on deck.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them, and I don't expect them to put forth their best effort today.

This will be Akron's 'national championship' game with the opportunity to face a Power 4 team in-state.  And the Zips brought back three key players from last season who are leading the team this season.  Amari Lyles (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Shammah Scott (14.3 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Tavari Johnson (13.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) are three seniors and won't be phased by this road atmosphere.

Akron is 3-0 this season beating James Madison by 14 and Princeton by 35 at home.  That's the same Princeton team that only lost by 19 at Kansas as 22.5-point dogs last time out.  Purdue only beat Oakland by 10 in its last home game.  That's the same Oakland team that lost by 43 to Michigan and by 33 to Houston.  Bet Akron Sunday.

15* Notre Dame/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  The Fighting Irish brought back three starters this season including their two best players in Burton (21.3 PPG LY) and Shrewsberry (14.0 PPG LY).

The Fighting Irish are off to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS start this season with three blowout wins all by 20 points or more.  Burton is averaging 19.3 points per game while Shrewsberry is averaging 13.0 points per game thus far.  I look for them to give Ohio State a run for its money today.

I haven't been impressed with the Buckeyes during their 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS start against a very soft schedule.  They only beat a bad IU Indy team by 16 at home, barely covered by 2 against IPFW.  They also failed to cover against App State.  The Buckeyes went 17-15 last season.  Bet Notre Dame Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -7

Maryland is a rebuilding team with first-year head coach Buzz Williams.  The Terrapins will be without three key players in G Myles Rice, F Solomon Washington and G George Turkson Jr.  It has been an unimpressive start for the Terrapins to say the least.

They are 0-3 ATS beating Coppin State by 22 as 28.5-point favorites, losing outright at home to Georgetown by 10 as 5-point favorites, and only beating Alcorn State by 20 as 29.5-point favorites.

Marquette's lone loss came to Indiana, and that's an Indiana team that is one of the best in the country.  They beat Albany by 27 as 24-point favorites, Southern by 18 s 24.5-point favorites and Arkansas-Little Rock by 40 as 21.5-point favorites.  The Eagles will make easy work of the Terrapins at home today.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

20* Arizona/UCLA CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2.5

This is a play against UCLA.  The Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Their results are shocking to this point.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point home favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point home favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point home favorites.  They have failed the cover the spread by a combined 52 points in their first three games.

Arizona beat defending national champ Florida 93-87 in its opener to prove it will be a contender this season.  The Wildcats followed it up with blowout wins of Utah Tech by 26 and Northern Arizona by 35.  They will make easy work of this overmatched UCLA team tonight.  Bet Arizona Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -15

Georgia is a wagon this season.  The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Bellarmine 104-59 as 23-point favorites, UMES 94-29 as 34-point favorites and Morehead State 120-81 as 29-point favorites.  The Bulldogs covered the spread in those three games by a combined 63 points in those three games.

Georgia Tech has been far less impressive.  The Yellow Jackets only beat that same UMES team 56-52 as 28.5-point favorites in their opener.  Georgia beat UMES by 65!  That common opponent is a big reason I'm on the Bulldogs.  Also, Georgia Tech struggled to get by SE Louisiana in a 10-point win as 15-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets have no shot of keeping this game competitive.  Bet Georgia Friday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Weber State +22.5

Weber State returns three players who averaged at least 6.2 points per game last season.  All three played big roles in their 130-38 dismantling of West Coast Baptist in the opener.  Trevor Henning had 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, Nigel Burris had 14 points and 7 boards, and Viljami Vartiainen had 11 points and 4 assists.  Newcomers Jace Whiting (19 points), David Hansen (15 points) and Bourgeoius Tshilobo (12 points, 6 boards) also played big roles.

I backed Weber State as 15.5-point underdogs in their next game at Utah and they nearly pulled off the outright upset in a 92-89 (OT) loss.  Through two games, the Wildcats have six different players averaging in double-figures scoring.  They are the definition of team basketball, and I fully expect them to give Utah State a run for its money tonight.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Aggies after a 26-8 record last season.  They did it with smoke and mirrors with some good luck in close games.  The losses are big as they lose four players who averaged at least 6.4 PPG last season, including leading scorer Ian Martinez (16.4 PPG).

Utah State took care of Westminister 110-54 before surviving a 80-77 win over VCU as 3-point favorites on a neutral.  That's a rebuilding VCU team with a first-year head coach who had to replace all five starters who all averaged at least 9.7 PPG last season.  I don't think the Aggies have any business laying 22.5 points to this game Wildcats team that already showed they could go on the road and play with Utah.  Bet Weber State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -12

Virginia Tech will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season after a 13-19 campaign last year including 8-12 in ACC play.  The Hokies return four starters in Tobi Lawal (12.4 PPG, 7.0 RP), Tyler Johnson (6.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Benn Hammond (5.6 PPG) and Jaden Shutt (7.7 PPG).  They added in UNLV transfer Jailen Bedford, WVU transfer Amani Hansberry and a pair of talented freshmen in Christian Gurdak and Neoklis Avdalas.

The Hokies easily covered as 18.5-point favorites in their opener beating Charleston Southern 98-67.  Lawal led the way with 20 points and 12 rebounds and Hansberry had 19 points and 13 boards.  Bedford had 13 points and 5 rebounds, while six other players had at least 6 points in the win.

The 107-101 (OT) win over Providence in Game 2 was the coming out party for Greece freshman G Neoklis Avdalas.  The 19-year-old recorded 33 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds to lead the Hokies to victory.  The 6-9 guard will prove to be one of the best players in the country.  Providence went on to blast Penn 106-81 as 19-point home favorites, making that win look even stronger.

Steve Donahue took over at St. Joe's only two months ago after previous head coach Billy Lange bolted for an assistant coaching role with the Knicks.  The Hawks were already without their top three scorers from last year in Brown (17.6 PPG), Reynolds (16 PPG) and Fleming (14.7 PPG).  That's a lot of production lost, which is why I'm not very high on St. Joe's this season.

I think the Hawks are getting too much respect for a pair of home wins over Lafayette (85-76) and Drexel (76-65).  This will be a much tougher opponent and their first true road game of the season tonight.  Drexel went on to lose 90-83 at Colgate as a 4-point dog.  Lafayette went on to lose 97-60 as 25-point dogs at Texas, so those wins aren't aging very well.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on UTRGV +18

UTRGV is catching too many points tonight against Boise State.  The Vaqueros went 16-15 in Kahil Fennell's first season last year and look like one of the more improved teams in the country this season.

UTRGV opened with a 96-81 loss at Baylor as 24.5-point dogs.  That's a Baylor team that went on to cover in a 78-69 win as 6-point favorites over a solid Washington team.  The Vaqueros went on to rout Southern Utah 95-72 as 1.5-point road favorites last time out, covering the spread by 21.5 points.  That's a Southern Utah team that only lost by 17 at Arizona State in their opener.

Boise State tipped its hand with just how much a rebuilding year this is going to be with a shocking 79-78 loss to Hawaii Pacific in the opener.  A 101-77 win over Utah Valley as 11.5-point favorites last time out doesn't ease that fact.  Utah Valley is a rebuilding team of its own that lost four starters including all of its double-digit scorers from last season.

Boise State loses three starters including its two best players in Tyson Degenhard (18.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Alvaro Cardenas (11.5 PPG, 6.9 APG) from last season.  It's going to continue being a rocky ride for the Broncos tonight to open non-conference play.  Bet UTRGV Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -10

SMU is one of the most talented teams in the ACC.  It's Year 2 under Andy Enfield after he went 24-11 in his first season with the Mustangs.  Three starters are back in Boopie Miller (13.2 PPG, 5.5 APG), Samet Yigitoglu (10.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and BJ Edwards (9.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG).

Miller (17.0 PPG), Edwards (13.0 PPG) and Yigitoglu (12.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) are off to solid starts through two games this season.  Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. (16.5 PPG) and Wichita State transfer Corey Washington (14.5 PPG) are showing they can contribute right away as this is one of the better starting 5's in the country.

Murray State is in a rebuilding year off a 16-17 campaign last season that led to the firing of Steve Prohm.  The Racers have a first-year head coach in Ryan Miller, a Creighton assistant.  They will be breaking in an entirely new roster with three Creighton transfers.

I think we are getting SMU cheap tonight because they have opened 0-2 ATS, while Murray State has opened 2-0 ATS against Omaha and Mississippi Valley State.  This is a big step up in class for the Racers and their first true road game.  I don't expect it to go well for them.  Bet SMU Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on VMI +24.5

VMI is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 15-19 last season.  They improved by 11 wins last season and now have one of the most experienced rosters in the country.  They return nine players who scored at least 3.5 points per game last season.  Five returning players combined to make more than 200 3-point shots last season.

VMI opened with a 122-58 win over Johnson & Wales Charlotte.  Eight players scored at least 9 points in the win.  They came back with a 78-74 road win at Southern Indiana as 2.5-point favorites.  TJ Johnson went off for 32 points to lead the way and is averaging 25.5 points per game through two games this season.

While I'm high on VMI early in the season, I'm low on the Missouri Tigers.  They have been far from impressive thus far beating Howard 88-67 as 19.5-point favorites barely covering despite shooting 55.7% from the field.  They didn't even come close to covering as 25.5-point favorites against SE Missouri State in a 89-84 win despite shooting 59.3% from the field.  They committed 19 turnovers and allowed SEMO to shoot 46%.  They remain sloppy with the basketball and a leaky defense again this season.  Bet VMI Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Weber State +15.5

Weber State returns three players who averaged at least 6.2 points per game last season.  All three played big roles in their 130-38 dismantling of West Coast Baptist in the opener.  Trevor Henning had 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, Nigel Burris had 14 points and 7 boards, and Viljami Vartiainen had 11 points and 4 assists.  Newcomers Jace Whiting (19 points), David Hansen (15 points) and Bourgeoius Tshilobo (12 points, 6 boards) also played big roles.

But this is more of a fade of Utah than anything.  The Utes are coming off a lackluster 84-75 win as 12.5-point favorites against a rebuilding San Jose State team.  Speaking of rebuilding, the Utes have a first-year head coach in Alex Jensen and lose all five starters from last year.  The Utes have just two returning scholarship players.  It's going to continue to be ugly for the Utes early in the season.  Bet Weber State Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +2.5

Virginia Tech will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season after a 13-19 campaign last year including 8-12 in ACC play.  The Hokies return four starters in Tobi Lawal (12.4 PPG, 7.0 RP), Tyler Johnson (6.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Benn Hammond (5.6 PPG) and Jaden Shutt (7.7 PPG).  They added in UNLV transfer Jailen Bedford, WVU transfer Amani Hansberry and a pair of talented freshmen in Christian Gurdak and Neoklis Avdalas.

The Hokies easily covered as 18.5-point favorites in their opener beating Charleston Southern 98-67.  Lawal led the way with 20 points and 12 rebounds and Hansberry had 19 points and 13 boards.  Bedford had 13 points and 5 rebounds, while six other players had at least 6 points in the win.

Kim English has been a major disappointment in his two seasons at Providence.  He went 12-20 last season including 6-14 in Big East play.  He may be in over his head here.  The Friars lose four starters including their top three scorers in Hopkins (17 PPG), Joseph (13.2 PPG) and Pierre (12.3 PPG).  The only returning starter is Corey Floyd Jr. (9.2 PPG).

Providence opened with a lackluster 89-79 home win over Holy Cross a 23.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 13.5 points.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on VMI -1.5

VMI is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 15-19 last season.  They improved by 11 wins last season and now have one of the most experienced rosters in the country.  They return nine players who scored at least 3.5 points per game last season.  Five returning players combined to make more than 200 3-point shots last season.

VMI opened with a 122-58 win over Johnson & Wales Charlotte.  Eight players scored at least 9 points in the win.  Now I fully expect them to make easy work of a rebuilding Southern Indiana team tonight.

Southern Indiana went 10-20 last season including 5-15 in OVC play.  The Screaming Eagles lose all five starters from that team and return just one player who averaged more than 2.6 points per game last season.  Their 88-58 loss at Butler as 23-point dogs where they shot just 29.2% from the field is a sign of things to come for this team.  Bet VMI Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Texas Tech -27.5

Texas Tech beat Lindenwood 98-60 as 29-point favorites in the opener even without two of their best players in JT Toppin (18.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG LY) and LeJuan Watts (11.6 PPG 66 career games), a transfer from Washington State.  Both have been ruled in tonight, which prompted me to add Texas Tech -27.5 to the card.

Returnees Christian Anderson Jr. and Donovan Atwell combined for 56 points to lead the way in Toppin and Watts' absence in the opener.  The Red Raiders are going to be even more potent tonight with those two returning and show the country why they are a Top 10 team this season.

Sam Houston State has 5 new starters this season and is a rebuilding team.  The Bearkats will get their doors blown off tonight in what will prove to be likely their toughest game of the season.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo -5

Buffalo should be improved in Year 3 under George Halcovage III.  The Bulls return two starters including their best player in Ryan Sabol (14.4 PPG, 79 3-pointers LY).  They add in SG Angelo Brizzi who followed Halcovage III from Villanova.  They also added Wisconsin transfer Daniel Frietag and a pair of scorers from the DII level in Ezra McKenna, Michael Pocknett and Derrick Tarlton Jr.

Buffalo opened with a 85-79 win as 2.5-point home favorites over Southern Miss.  Sabol went off for 32 points to lead the way.  Brizzi had 18 points and fellow returning starter Noah Batchelor had 12 points and 11 rebounds.  Freitag, McKenna and Talton Jr. all contributed in the win.

But this is more of a play against Green Bay than anything.  The Phoenix went 4-28 last season including 2-18 in the Horizon League.  Doug Gottlieb is one of the worst head coaches in the country and isn't going to get things turned around this season.  He returns just one double-digit scorer and lose two including Anthony Roy (25.7 PPG).

Only one player scored in double figures in a 94-51 loss as 30.5-point dogs at Kansas in the opener.  It may go a little easier against Buffalo tonight, but it won't be easy enough to stay within this 5-point spread.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -22

The Iowa Hawkeyes finally have the coach they need to get over the hump. They hired Drake's Ben McCollum who went 31-4 at Drake last year and is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.

McCollum brought several players with him from Drake including his best player in Bennett Stirtz. He is a great recruiter, but he is even better at developing his talent. The Hawkeyes are in good hands with McCollum, and it will show in their opener tonight with a blowout win over Robert Morris.

The Colonials lost all five starters from last season including four double-digit scorers and a 5th that averaged 9.1 points. This is a clear rebuilding year as they only bring back one player that averaged more than 1.0 points per game. Bet Iowa Tuesday.

20* CBB Season Opener on St. John's -26

St. John's is the type of team I don't mind laying big numbers with early in the season. They pressure the opponent for 40 minutes and thus continue to pour it on late in games even when it's a blowout.

That's what Rick Pitino has brought to St. John's is a culture where you out work your opponent for 40 minutes and let the chips fall where they may. And he has turned the Red Storm into a Top 10 preseason team with his results thus far.

Second-leading scorer Zuby Ejiofor (14.7 PPG, 8,1 RPG) is back from last year, and the shooting should be much better with the additions of Joson Sanon (ASU), Ian Jackson (UNC) and Bryce Hopkins (Providence) through the transfer portal.

Quinnipiac lost three starters from last year including a pair of double-digit scorers. I don't see them being able to hang for 40 minutes with the Red Storm as this will likely be their toughest game of the season. Bet St. John's Monday.

20* Florida/Houston Championship Game No-Brainer on Houston +1.5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to championship game by far.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee had the home-court advantage in the Elite 8 in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage.  The Final 4 is being played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 8-1 SU in the previous nine instances, including all three underdogs winning outright.

That includes their 70-67 win over Duke in the Final 4.  Things were going against Houston for 30 minutes that they were able to overcome.  Uzan got two early fouls and picked up his 4th foul early in the 2H and played just 28 minutes total.  The Cougars overcame a 14-point deficit in the 2H and a 6-point deficit in the final minute to beat a Duke team that almost everyone thought would win the title after running through everyone else.

Florida is fortunate to be here.  The Gators survived a dog fight against 8th seed UConn, they needed a double-digit comeback in the final few minutes to beat Texas Tech, and they overcame a double-digit deficit in the 2H against Auburn.  They got to face Auburn with a hobbled Broome as well.  This is where the luck for the Gators runs out.

Florida hasn't face a team that plays with the physicality and toughness that Houston does defensively.  The Cougars rank 1st in adjusted defense and 360th in adjusted tempo.  They drag you in the mud and make you play their game.  And I think they should get the benefit of the whistle with this essentially being a home game for them being played in San Antonio.  No question the Cougars feel like they can't lose at this point after that comeback win over Duke.  They are playing with extreme confidence, and I trust Kelvin Sampson to make the proper adjustments over Todd Golden of the Gators.  Bet Houston Monday. 

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston +5

The Houston Cougars are 34-4 this season with all four losses coming by 5 points or fewer, including three in OT.  They have only lost one game since December 1st and that was a 1-point loss to Texas Tech in OT.  They are battle-tested and have come out on top in almost all of their close games since December.

The Cougars had the toughest route to the Final 4 of any of the four remaining teams, and especially much tougher than Duke's path.  It started with beating Gonzaga, which was the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament.  Then they beat the defending runners-up in Purdue in a dog fight in what was essentially a home game for the Boilermakers being played in Indianapolis.  Tennessee has the home-court advantage last round in Indianapolis, but it didn't matter as the Cougars put together their most complete performance of the season in a wire-to-wire job in a 69-50 win over Vols.

Now it's Houston that gets the home-court advantage here.  The Final 4 will be played in the Alamodome in San Antonio.  Houston is the 9th team to play in its home state in the Final 4 since 1975. Those teams playing in their home state have gone 7-1 SU in the previous eight instances, including both underdogs winning outright.

Duke has played four pretty soft, guard-oriented teams to get here.  The last three wins came against Baylor, Arizona and Alabama.  Arizona from the Big 12 gave them their toughest test in a 7-point defeat.  Houston went 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Arizona this season.

Duke has struggled against more physical, defensive-minded teams that slow down the tempo.  Their last loss came against Clemson, which ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and 17th in adjusted defense.  They also lost to fellow Big 12 opponent Kansas earlier this season, and the Jayhawks rank 11th in adjusted defense.  Kansas lost both meetings with Houston this season.

Duke hasn't seen a team that will challenge them physically and mentally like Houston will.  The Cougars rank 360th in adjusted tempo and 1st in adjusted defense.  But this is also the best offense of the Kelvin Sampson era with the Cougars ranking 10th in adjusted offense.  The trio of guards in Cryer, Uzan and Sharpe can match that of Duke, and Roberts, Francis and Tugler are a trio of big men that are tough to deal with inside.  

I expect Houston to win the majority of the loose balls and to feed off of what will feel like a home crowd in San Antonio.  This line should be much closer to PK.  Finally, the Cougars want revenge from a 54-51 loss to Duke in the Sweet 16 last season.  Jamal Shead got hurt in the 1H in that game and wasn't able to return, and it made all the difference.  The Cougars get their revenge in the Final 4 one year later.  Bet Houston Saturday.

15* Chattanooga/UC-Irvine NIT Championship ANNIHILATOR on Chattanooga +5

Chattanooga is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NIT with 4 outright wins as underdogs.  What more do the Mocs need to do to get some respect? Now they are 5-point underdogs to UC-Irvine in the NIT Championship Game, and I fully expect them to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

While Chattanooga had to play 3 of its 4 games on the road to get here, UC-Irvine benefitted from getting 3 home games to make the semifinals.  And it couldn't have been a much easier schedule with unimpressive wins over Northern Colorado by 10, Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB by 4.  And the Anteaters were fortunate to get a big comeback to beat North Texas by 2 in the semifinals.  So the only team they beat by more than this 5-point margin was Northern Colorado, which ranks 125th in Kenpom.

So UC-Irvine's 4 wins have come by a total of 21 points despite being favored in every game except being 1-point dogs to North Texas.  Chattanooga's 4 wins have come by a total of 30 points despite being an underdog in all 4 contests.  Bet Chattanooga Thursday.

20* Michigan State/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -5

It's amazing how good Auburn can be when they are dialed in.  The Tigers clearly knew they were going to be a No. 1 seed regardless of how they performed in the SEC Tournament and it showed.  They were also lackluster in their NCAA Tournament opener against Alabama State winning by 20 as 31.5-point favorites.

The Tigers started slow against UConn trailing by 2 at halftime.  They showed what they were capable of down the stretch, pulling away for a 82-70 victory as 9-point favorites.  They did the same thing against Michigan, trailing by 8 points with about 12 minutes left.  That's when they decided their season was on the line, and they locked in from that point outscoring the Wolverines by 21 the rest of the way to win 78-65 and cover as 9-point favorites.

If Auburn is anywhere near at its best for 40 minutes, it will crush Michigan State.  The only hope for the Spartans to keep this game competitive would be an off game for Auburn, and considering a trip to the Final 4 is on the line I expect we get their best effort.

Michigan State needed late surges to beat both New Mexico by 8 and Ole Miss by 3 the last two rounds.  The Spartans have been getting by with hustle, defense and rebounding because they rank just 318th in the country in 3-point shooting at 31.1%.  This is where their lack of shooting finally hurts them as they can't hang with a team the caliber of Auburn without it.

Ole Miss is a common opponent and Auburn went 3-0 against Ole Miss this season winning those three meeting by a total of 45 points, or by an average of 15 points per game.  Michigan State pretty much trailed Ole Miss the entire way and was life and death.  This is a big step up in class for the Spartans against an Auburn team with no weaknesses ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  It's also a home game for the Tigers basically less than two hours from campus in Atlanta.  Bet Auburn Sunday.

20* Michigan/Auburn South Region No-Brainer on Auburn -7.5

Michigan is the most overrated team left in the tournament.  The Wolverines have a negative point differential despite winning 13 of their last 17 games.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just two games by more than 6 points since January 12th.

Michigan was once again fortunate to escape with a 68-65 win over UC-San Diego in the Round of 64.  They had the officials on their side when UC-San Diego's best player in Tait-Jones fouled out and was in foul trouble all game only playing 24 minutes thanks to a couple questionable calls.  Michigan only won by 3 despite a rare poor shooting performance by the Tritons going just 7-of-30 (23%) from 3-point range.

Michigan was then able to overcome a double-digit deficit in the 2H to beat Texas A&M in the Round of 32.  The Aggies are a poor shooting team and it came back to bite them hitting just 38% from the field and 26% from 3-point range against the Wolverines.

Now the Wolverines face a complete team in Auburn, and this is where their luck runs out.  The Tigers rank 3rd in adjusted offense and 12th in adjusted defense.  They take care of the ball ranking 5th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on only 13% of possessions.  That's going to be the difference in this game.

Michigan ranks 324th in turnover percentage on offense turning it over on nearly 20% of possessions.  Auburn will capitalize on those opportunities, and I don't think Michigan has what it takes to keep up in what I expect to be a shootout.  This will also feel like a home game for the Tigers being played in Atlanta less than two hours from campus.  Bet Auburn Friday.

15* Kentucky/Tennessee Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4

Tennessee lost both meetings to Kentucky during the regular season.  The ultimate revenge would be to knock out the Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, and I fully expect the Vols to get their revenge in blowout fashion today.

The shooting in the first two meetings was very fluky and heavily in Kentucky's favor.  While Tennessee went 14-of-63 (22.2%) from 3-point range in the two meetings, Kentucky remarkably went 24-of-48 (50%) from 3-point range.  That was the difference.  Jax Robinson had 17 points on 4-of-9 from 3 in one of the meetings, and the Wildcats are now without Robinson and much less potent offensively.

Let's also look at this from a line value perspective.  Tennessee was a 10.5-point favorite at home and a 4-point favorite on the road in the first two meetings.  Now the Vols are a 4-point favorite on a neutral, which is too big of an adjustment in Kentucky's favor.  The value is clearly on the Vols tonight.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Maryland/Florida West Region ANNIHILATOR on Maryland +6.5

Maryland is 27-8 this season with all eight losses coming by 6 points or less.  So they haven't lost a single game all season by more than 6 points, making for a 35-0 system backing the Terrapins pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.

The Terrapins finally got some good fortune to go their way in close games with a buzzer-beater 72-71 win over Colorado State.  I think the betting public is looking at that as a poor result, but I've been riding Colorado State this entire time during their 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS run to close out the season.  The Rams are much better than they get credit for.

The more concerning result was Florida escaping with a 77-75 win over UConn as 9-point favorites last round.  The Gators failed to cover the spread in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games, and you're paying a tax to back them still after winning the SEC Tournament.

I like the fact that Maryland played in Seattle last round and decided to stay out West instead of flying back to Baltimore.  The Terrapins have had some bonding time in San Francisco prior to this game.  The tougher travel spot is Florida, which played in North Carolina on Sunday and now has to fly clear out West to San Francisco for this one.  That's a lot of travel in a short amount of time, and I don't think the Gators will be nearly as fresh or prepared as the Terrapins will be tonight as a result.  Bet Maryland Thursday.

20* North Texas/Oklahoma State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Oklahoma State PK

Oklahoma State quietly has one of the better home-court advantages in the country this season.  The Cowboys have gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games wit their only losses coming to Arizona and Texas Tech.  They upset Iowa State and Cincinnati during this stretch.

The Cowboys have been impressive in the NIT thus far crushing Wichita State 89-79 at home and upsetting SMU as 8.5-point road dogs.  That win over Wichita State is significant here because it gives them a common opponent with North Texas, who played the Shockers twice in AAC play.

North Texas only beat Wichita State by 2 at home and by 4 on the road in their two meetings this season.  The Mean Green have a great home-court advantage and used it with lackluster wins by 11 over Furman and by 2 over Arkansas State to get here.  But now the Mean Green are on the road where they aren't nearly as dominant.

The Big 12 is much stronger than the AAC and I'll gladly side with the Big 12 team here at a PK when I believe the Cowboys should be favored.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

20* Oregon/Arizona West Region No-Brainer on Oregon +5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 17-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  He always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have gone 9-1 SU in their last 10 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene.  No question it felt like a home game for the Ducks when they blasted Liberty 81-52 as 7-point favorites in the Round of 64.  They'll still be fresh after getting to rest their starters and playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

Arizona made the Big 12 Championship Game and will be playing its 5th game in 11 days as a result.  The Wildcats were gifted that run because they beat a tired Kansas team off an OT game and beat a Texas Tech team that was without two of its top three scorers.  Reality set in with a 8-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs in the championship game.

I just don't trust this Arizona team led by Caleb Love.  He is eventually going to shoot them out of a game in the NCAA Tournament, and I believe this is the game he does.  Bet Oregon Sunday.

20* Ole Miss/Iowa State South Region No-Brainer on Ole Miss +5.5

Iowa State has just two wins against NCAA Tournament teams since January 16th, and one of those was Lipscomb.  I think the Cyclones are overvalued after that win against overmatched Lipscomb, and they will get a much stiffer test here against Ole Miss.

This is where the loss of Keshon Gilbert (13.4 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) will hurt Iowa State.  Ole Miss has some of the best guards in the country who can handle Iowa State's pressure, and Gilbert was a big part of that pressure defensively not even factoring in what he means for them on the offensive end.

Ole Miss ranks 3rd in the country in turnover rate on offense turning it over on just 13% of possessions.  That will be the difference in this game as Ole Miss takes care of the ball offensively and gets good shots each time down.

Ole Miss beat UNC 71-64 in the Round of 64, shutting down what was previously one of the hottest teams in the country, and certainly boasts one of the best offenses in the country.  This is actually a step down in class for this Ole Miss defense.  I also trust Ole Miss head coach Chris Beard immensely.  Beard has 5 wins as a seed line underdog in the NCAA Tournament in his career.  Bet Ole Miss Sunday.

20* Colorado State/Maryland West Region No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

I've been riding Colorado State during basically their entire run to win the Mountain West and make the NCAA Tournament.  I'm not about to jump off now. No team in the country has been more underrated down the stretch than Colorado State.

The Rams are 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all 11 wins by 8 points or more. They have absolutely been crushing teams.  A big way to tell just how underrated a team is is with ATS margin.  The Rams covered the spread in those 11 games by a total of 128.5 points, or by an average of 11.7 points per game.

I'm certainly going to keep riding the Rams catching 7.5 points against Maryland.  No question the Terrapins have one of the most talented starting 5's in the country.  But they also have one of the worst benches in the country.  And their depth will be more tested here playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

We saw that play out in the Big 10 Tournament as after blasting Illinois by 23, the Terrapins were upset the next day by Michigan as 4.5-point favorites.  The Terrapins may win and advantage here, but not without a fight from a Rams team that couldn't possibly be playing with more confidence than they are right now.  Bet Colorado State Sunday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +9.5

The ACC was the most overrated conference in the country and it has played out in the NCAA Tournament with upset losses by Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina.  Only Duke remains in the NCAA Tournament as Sunday's Round of 32.

I'll gladly fade ACC opponent SMU today laying a big number against a Big 12 foe in Oklahoma State.  Asking the Mustangs to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

SMU was life and death with Northern Iowa in the final minutes before pulling away late for a 10-point victory.  Oklahoma State will present a much tougher, more athletic opponent today.  The Cowboys put away what was previously a red hot Wichita State team 89-79 in their NIT opener.

The Big 12 clearly looks dominant going 9-1 SU in the NCAA Tournament thus far heading into Sunday's Round of 32.  I'll trust the Cowboys after playing the much tougher schedule this season.  Bet Oklahoma State Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament Opening Weekend GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +8.5

Drake is 31-3 this season with all 3 losses by 7 points or fewer and by a combined 13 points, making for a 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  They drug Missouri into the mud on Thursday and forced the Tigers to play their game even though Missouri likes to play up-tempo.  Drake won 67-57 as 6-point underdogs despite a huge FT discrepancy in favor of Missouri.  The Tigers went 23-of-26 from the FT line while the Bulldogs went just 12-of-24.

I am a big fan of Texas Tech when the Red Raiders are fully healthy, but that's just not the case right now.  Two of their top three players are banged up.  Darion Williams (13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG) returned from injury against UNC-Wilmington and went just 5-of-15 from the floor.  He still looked hobbled.  Chance McMillian (13.7 PPG, 43.4% 3-pointers) did not return and they desperately miss his shooting and scoring.

I was not impressed with Texas Tech on Thursday beating UNC-Wilmington 82-72 as 15-point favorites.  Wilmington only shot 7-of-26 (27%) from 3-point range and still only lost by 10.  I expect the Red Raiders to be life and death in the final seconds with Drake in this one whether or not McMillian returns.  Bet Drake Saturday.

15* Arkansas/St. John's Midwest Region ANNIHILATOR on St. John's -6.5

St. John's is 31-4 SU & 23-11 ATS this season and still one of the most underrated teams in the country. All four losses came by 3 points or fewer and by a combined 7 points, which shows just how close the Red Storm are to being 35-0.

St. John's is playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch going 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Red Storm have put together four straight wins by 16 points or more which includes wins over Creighton and Marquette.

The strength of the Red Storm is defense as they rank 1st in the country in adjusted defense.  They make you work for everything you get, and they suffocate teams in the 2H consistently running out of gas after intermission.  They make for a great tournament team because they are so difficult to prepare for.

John Calipari only has one day to prepare for St. John's, and I don't expect it to go well for him.  Rick Pitino is far and away the superior head coach here.  Arkansas has been fortunate in close games there of late with five of its last six wins coming by 7 points or fewer.  This is where their luck runs out.

Arkansas is without one of its best players in Adou Thiero (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.7 SPG) and he will be missed here.  We saw Kansas go zone on Arkansas in the 2H and they didn't know what they were doing against it.  I think Pitino will pull all the right strings here to make life difficult on the Razorbacks.

St. John's forced turnovers on 22% of opponents' possessions which ranks 22nd in the country.  Arkansas is prone to turning it over ranking 135th in turnover percentage.  The Red Storm will want it more here and win most of the loose balls while pulling away in the 2H once again.  They will also have a big home-court advantage with this game being played in Providence.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* Liberty/Oregon East Region No-Brainer on Oregon -5.5

In Dana Altmann I trust.  He is 16-7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in his career as a head coach.  Oregon is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the Round of 64.  Altmann always has his Oregon Ducks playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, and this season has been no exception.  The Ducks have won 8 of their last 9 games with their lone loss coming to Michigan State, which had the rest advantage with a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

Oregon played the 19th-toughest schedule in the country this season while Liberty played the 198th-ranked schedule.  The Flames only played one NCAA Tournament team all season, which was McNeese State from the Southland.  They are a good shooting team, but I think they are getting too much respect here.

Oregon should also have what feels like home-court advantage with this game being played in Seattle, Washington.  It's about 4 hours up the coast from Eugene and I expect the Ducks to have plenty of support there.  Bet Oregon Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Xavier +3.5

Since the First 4 started in 2011, 13 teams from the First 4 have advanced to the Round of 32.  At least one team has won a Round of 64 game in 12 of the last 14 years.  Xavier looks to be the most promising team to make a run if it's not UNC.

Xavier is playing as well as anyone in the Big East outside of St. John's here down the stretch to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  The Musketeers are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming by 2 to Marquette as 2.5-point dogs.  They beat Creighton by 22 at home during this stretch.

I don't understand why Illinois continues to get so much respect.  The Fighting Illini are 8-8 SU & 7-8-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They only beat three NCAA Tournament teams during this stretch and two of those came at home.  

They lost by 23 to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, by 43 to Duke on a neutral, by 14 to Michigan State at home, by 21 to Maryland at home and by 21 to Wisconsin on the road.  They also were upset by Nebraska, USC and Rutgers during this stretch.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Xavier Friday.

15* CBB Friday Night BLOWOUT on Marquette -3.5

The Mountain West is now 26-55 ATS in their last 81 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out 95-68 by North Carolina on Tuesday and Utah State got blown out 72-47 by UCLA on Thursday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade New Mexico tonight.

The Lobos struggled down the stretch going 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  THat includes two losses to Boise State and a 8-point loss to that same San Diego State team that got blown out by UNC.  They also narrowly escaped with a pair of 4-point wins over Wyoming and Nevada, two of the poor teams in the Mountain West.  And earlier this season they lost by 14 to St. John's, a fellow Big East opponent of Marquette.

I think the Golden Eagles come into the NCAA Tournament a little undervalued after losing three of their final four games including two losses to St. John's.  The other loss came on the road to UConn, while they also beat Xavier in the Big East Tournament, which was the only loss Xavier has suffered in its last nine games playing as well as anyone in the Big East.

Marquette is a very balanced team with very few weaknesses.  The Golden Eagles rank 31st in adjusted offense and 22nd in adjusted defense.  And while New Mexico is a solid defensive team, there is a glaring weakness for the Lobos on the other end as they rank just 85th in adjusted offense.  There will also be bit of a home-court advantage for Marquette with this game being played in Cleveland, Ohio.  Bet Marquette Friday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on UC-San Diego +3.5

UC-San Diego won 30 games this season.  They are the best mid-major in the country outside of perhaps VCU.  I don't think they could have gotten a better 1st-round matchup than Michigan.

Michigan is the most overrated team in the country.  The Wolverines went 11-4 SU in their last 15 games despite a -20 point differential.  They were simply fortunate in close games all season, and they've won just one game by more than 6 points since January 12th.

I actually like fading teams that won their conference tournament because it takes a lot out of them.  The Wolverines had to play on Sunday and now have the quick turnaround to a Thursday game.  They are fat and happy heading into the NCAA Tournament.

The best part of UC-San Diego is turnovers, as they are 7th in turnover rate on offense and 2nd in turnover rate on defense with the best turnover differential in the entire country.  Michigan ranks just 328th in turnover rate on offense turning it over on almost 20% of their possessions.  They are also 265th in turnover rate on defense, making them one the worst teams in the country in turnover rate.  I think that will be the difference.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on UCLA -5.5

The Mountain West is now 26-54 ATS in their last 80 NCAA Tournament games after San Diego State got blown out by North Carolina on Tuesday.  The only Mountain West team I trust is Colorado State, and I'll gladly fade Utah State Thursday night.

Utah State struggled away from home down the stretch going 2-6 ATS in its final eight road games.  That includes a 27-point loss at Colorado State and a 17-point loss at Boise State in their final two.  They also lost to Colorado State by 11 in the MWC Tournament.  Key role player Drake Allen (7.2 PPG) who is their top bench player is out for the season.

UCLA will benefited from playing in the Big Ten this season and playing a much more difficult schedule than they were used to in the Pac-12 before.  The Bruins are 11-4 SU & 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They are the much better defensive team, and their physicality will give this soft Utah State team fits for 40 minutes.  Bet UCLA Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Drake +6.5

The Missouri Tigers are one of the more vulnerable teams from the SEC.  They are limping into the NCAA Tournament going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their best player in Mark Mitchell is banged up as well.  Head coach Dennis Gates has just one NCAA Tournament win to his name.

Drake went 30-3 this season with the three losses coming by a combined 13 points.  The Bulldogs had a great hire in Ben McCollum, who won four National Championships at DII Northwestern Missouri State.  He brought several players with him and the Bulldogs have proven they can compete at the DI level.

Drake made pretty easy work in the MVC Tournament beating Southern Illinois by 17, Belmont by 7 and then most impressively topped Bradley by 15 in the championship game.  Their suffocating defense held those three teams to an average of just 50 points per game.

Drake ranks 364th in adjusted tempo so they force their opponents to play on their terms.  I think that will frustrate Missouri, which prefers to play a more up-tempo game.  

One big advantage for the Bulldogs is that they rank 17th in offensive rebounding rate grabbing 36% of their own misses.  Missouri ranks 300th allowing opponents to grab 32.2% of their misses.  That could easily be the difference in this game.  I trust McCollum over Gates to make the necessary adjustments, and I have the Bulldogs pulling off the upset here.  Bet Drake Thursday.

20* Arkansas/Kansas West Region No-Brainer on Arkansas +5.5

Arkansas really showed off its depth down the stretch without two of its best players in Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero who combined to average over 30 points per game.  This was actually one of John Calipari's better coaching jobs.

Arkansas went 9-2-2 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Razorbacks won three of their final four games with their lone loss coming to Ole Miss by 3 in the SEC Tournament.  Ole Miss was coming off a bye and had the rest advantage after Arkansas beat South Carolina the previous day.  Boogie Fland (15.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.5 SPG) is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, so reinforcements are on the way.

Kansas is one of the most overrated teams in the country right alongside Michigan.  The Jayhawks went just 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games.  They needed OT to beat UCF twice.  They have just one win against a NCAA Tournament team in their last 11 games.  I don't even think they should be favored here.  Bet Arkansas Thursday.

15* NIT Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Jose State +3

San Jose State was one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  The Spartans went 22-9 ATS in all games, including 10-4 ATS in home games.  The only point of the season where they struggled was when they were injured, but they are fully healthy heading into the NIT.

San Jose State has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Spartans beat Fresno State 92-68 as 5.5-point home favorites in their regular season finale.  They went on to beat Wyoming 66-61 as a PK in the first round, and then covered against a rested New Mexico team in the MWC Tournament in a hard-fought 11-point loss as 15.5-point dogs.

Loyola-Chicago is in the worse spot here.  The Ramblers beat Saint Louis in their Atlantic 10 opener before a hard-fought 7-point loss to VCU.  They really felt like they had a chance to win the tournament, so they are disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  Now they have to travel clear out on the West Coast with just three days in between games since losing to VCU.

With a losing record on the season, no question San Jose State is relishing the opportunity to be playing in the NIT.  They get to host a game no less.  The Spartans have had the last five days off so they will have the rest and preparation advantage.  I trust in head coach Tim Miles to get his team ready to go, and I believe the wrong team is favored here.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

20* NIT DOG OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa +10.5

Handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  SMU feels like it should be in the NCAA Tournament and is disappointed to be playing in the NIT.  A 3-point loss to Clemson in the ACC Tournament cost them a shot at making the NCAA Tournament.  They don't want to be here in the NIT.

Northern Iowa has known it will be going to the NIT since losing to Valparaiso on March 7th.  The Panthers have had nearly two weeks to get over that defeat and prepare for their NIT run.  I love them catching double-digits here as they were one of the most underrated teams in the MVC all season.

SMU went 4-5 SU & 4-5 ATS in its final nine games to play its way out of the NCAA Tournament.  That includes upset losses to Florida State and Wake Forest that really cost them.  The Mustangs have been poor in their last three home games losing by 11 to Wake Forest, by 10 to Clemson and only beating Syracuse by 2 as 13.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites over Northern Iowa tonight.  Bet Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on Samford +7.5

The Samford Bulldogs are live underdogs Wednesday night in their NIT opener against George Mason.  This is a Bulldogs team that opened 19-7 before going 3-5 in their final eight games this season.  They were awesome in non-conference play with their only three losses coming against Cornell by 2, Michigan State by 8 and Arizona.  They beat some very good teams in Utah Valley, North Dakota State and North Alabama.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Bulldogs.

But this is as much of a fade of George Mason as anything.  This is a brutal spot for the Patriots.  They just played 3 games in 3 days from Friday through Sunday and lost in the Atlantic 10 Championship Game by 5 to VCU.  Their dreams of making the NCAA Tournament were crushed, and they won't be able to get back up off the mat in time here three days later to get motivated to beat Samford in the NIT consolation.

Meanwhile, Samford has been off since March 8th with 10 days in between games to get ready for this one.  The Bulldogs are happy to be playing in the NIT, and handicapping the NIT is all about motivation.  The Patriots don't want to be here at all.  Bet Samford Wednesday.

15* UNC/San Diego State First Four ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3.5

North Carolina will be extra motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Almost everyone felt the Tar Heels shouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament due to their poor Quad 1 record.  However, they went 15-1 in Quad 2 games and they can handle a team like San Diego State.

North Carolina is the best of all the bubble teams in my opinion, certainly better than WVU, Indiana, Ohio State and Boise State who were all left out.  The Tar Heels earned their way by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, going 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their final 10 games with each of their last seven wins coming by 9 points or more.  Their two losses both came to Duke, and they took the Blue Devils to the wire in both games, and I have Duke as the best team in the country.

San Diego State is the fortunate team to be in the field.  The Aztecs went 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS in their final six games and were bounced in their first MWC game in a 10-point loss to Boise State.  The Mountain West is 26-53 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2006 so this is one of the most overrated conferences in the country year in and year out.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

15* George Mason/VCU Atlantic 10 Early ANNIHILATOR on George Mason +8.5

The VCU Rams are likely in the NCAA Tournament win or lose.  The George Mason Patriots have to win to get in.  I like the motivational advantage the Patriots have here, and this number is out of whack as George Mason has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.

George Mason is 26-7 this season.  The Patriots should still be pretty fresh after making easy work of both George Washington and St. Joseph's the last two days beating both by double-digits.  VCU was in a dog fight with Loyola-Chicago yesterday winning by just 7.

George Mason also wants revenge after blowing a halftime lead on the road at VCU in their lone meeting this season.  The Patriots shot just 35.4% as a team, 26.3% from 3-point range and 62.5% from the FT line in that defeat.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Sunday.

20* Louisville/Duke ACC No-Brainer on Louisville +6.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury in their ACC Tournament opener to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  I cashed in UNC +7.5 yesterday fading Duke without these two, and I'm fading them again today as they should not be 6.5-point favorites over Louisville without Flagg and Brown.

Duke showed a ton of heart in the first half against UNC yesterday with an inspired effort to prove they could still win without Flagg.  The Blue Devils led by 21 at halftime, but then reality set in and UNC stormed back to get within 1, only to commit a lane violation that cost them the game in a 74-71 defeat.

I have Louisville power rated a few points better than North Carolina, so I'll gladly take the points again.  The Cardinals are battle-tested coming through clutch late to prevent comebacks by Stanford and Clemson the last two days.  I think they have what it takes to hang with Duke, especially knowing they don't have to deal with Flagg and Brown.

Duke beat Louisville by 11 in their lone regular season meeting this season.  But Flagg had 20 points and 12 rebounds, while Brown had 6 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals.  That's a combined 26 points and 23 rebounds the Blue Devils will be without in the rematch.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. John's -4.5

The St. John's Red Storm have a huge home-court advantage in the Big East Tournament playing at Madison Square Garden.  They have made easy work of their first two opponents beating Butler 78-57 as 12-point favorites and Marquette 79-63 as 3.5-point favorites.

Now the Red Storm should still be pretty fresh for this game against Creighton due to the blowout nature of their first two games.  Meanwhile, Creighton was in a couple dog fights the last two days, needing 2 OT to beat DePaul 85-81 as 13-point favorites on Thursday and staving off a big comeback by UConn in a 71-62 win on Friday.

You could see Creighton players breathing heavily as UConn nearly erased a 15-point deficit in the 2H.  Now the Bluejays go up against a St. John's team that will test your stamina more than just about any team in the country.  They will give Creighton zero room to breathe.  The Red Storm rank 49th in adjusted tempo and 19th in average length of offensive possession.  They press for 40 minutes and make everyone work for everything they get offensively.  They rank 1st in adjusted defense.

Finally, St. John's hasn't won the Big East Tournament since 2000.  That's 25 years of suffering, and you can bet the Red Storm will be max motivated today to get it done.  I expect them to win in a blowout as Creighton tires out in the 2H, while the Red Storm only get stronger.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

20* St. Joe's/George Mason Atlantic 10 No-Brainer on George Mason +1

George Mason has a huge rest advantage over St. Joe's today and should not be underdogs as a result.  The Patriots got a bye into the quarterfinals yesterday before blasting George Washington 80-65.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 2 days and should still be fresh after the blowout win.

St. Joe's will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days after two dog fights the last two days.  The Hawks only beat La Salle 75-70 as 12.5-point favorites on Thursday before needing OT to beat Dayton 73-68 on Friday.  I love fading teams in these conference tournaments coming off OT games because they tend to run out of gas in their next game.

George Mason beat St. Joe's 58-57 in their lone meeting this season.  They won that game despite St. Joe's shooting 10-of-23 (43.5%) from 3-point range while the Patriots shot just 2-of-10 (20%).  Positive shooting regression can only be the case in their favor in the rematch today.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* Michigan/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -4

I cashed in both Maryland and Michigan yesterday as premium plays.  But only one of these teams is a contender while the other is a pretender.  I'll gladly back the contender in Maryland laying the short number against the pretender in Michigan.

Maryland is playing as well as anyone in the country right now going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming to Michigan State by 3, one of the best teams in the country.  The Terrapins made easy work of Illinois 88-65 yesterday which allowed its started to rest late and stay fresh for this game.  That's an Illinois team that was coming off four straight blowout wins including a 20-point win at Michigan.

Michigan is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall with that 20-point loss to Illinois, a 17-point loss at Michigan State and also a 6-point home loss to this same Maryland team.  The Terrapins shot just 38.1% from the field in that game and still won by 6 on the road.  There's just not much room for improvement for the Wolverines on a neutral in the rematch.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Utah State/Colorado State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado State PK

Colorado State is the most underrated team in the Mountain West and one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Rams have gone 16-3 SU & 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games overall, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Yet they are still on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, so they remain motivated to prove their naysayers wrong.  Utah State is pretty much locked into the NCAA Tournament now after a 70-58 win over UNLV yesterday against a Rebels team that was missing two of their best players.  I wasn't impressed at all with that win.

What I was impressed with was Colorado State handing Utah State its worst loss of the season in a 93-66 home win on March 1st just two weeks ago.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, and the Rams should be favored here by a lot more.  Bet Colorado State Friday.

20* Cal Poly/UC-Irvine Big West Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine -10

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Cal Poly will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while UC-Irvine got a bye into the semifinals.  That's a huge rest advantage for the Anteaters, who have been off since March 8th and are highly motivated to get to the final.  Irvine beat Cal Poly 101-71 in their last meeting this season.  Bet UC-Irvine Friday.

15* Kentucky/Alabama SEC ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -6

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Kentucky beat Oklahoma 85-84 at the buzzer yesterday.  That was a poor result considering Oklahoma played a grueling game the day before while Kentucky was rested.

Now it's Kentucky at the rest disadvantage because Alabama got a bye into the quarterfinals today.  And Kentucky lost Lamont Butler (11.5 PPG) to an injury in that game, and they were already without Jax Robinson (13.0 PPG).  They don't have the firepower to keep up with Alabama today without two of their top four scorers.  The Crimson Tide won by 5 on the road and by 13 at home in their two regular season meetings with the Wildcats and scored a combined 198 points in both wins.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Purdue/Michigan Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Michigan +3

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Purdue is coming off a 76-71 comeback win over a USC team that was coming off a double-OT game the previous day.  It's concerning that Purdue struggled to put away USC given the rest advantage.  Now it's Purdue at the rest disadvantage playing a Michigan team that got a bye into the quarterfinals today.  It's a very motivated Michigan team that lost three straight to close out the regular season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Michigan Friday.

15* Seattle/Utah Valley WAC ANNIHILATOR on Utah Valley -3

The WAC Tournament is a little quirky but the top teams have the advantage.  No. 1 seed Utah Valley crushed Utah Tech 74-57 as 12.5-point favorites on Wednesday, while No. 5 seed Seattle squeaked by Abilene Christian 69-63 as 6-point favorites on Thursday.

So Utah Valley has the rest advantage after having yesterday off.  With that rest and preparation advantage, plus the fact that Utah Valley won and covered against Seattle in both meetings this season, they should be more than 3-point favorites today.  Bet Utah Valley Friday.

20* UConn/Creighton Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5

It's Tournament Time and the UConn Huskies are as dangerous as they come in tournament action.  They won the NCAA title the last two years, and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  UConn is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games overall.

While UConn made easy work of Villanova in a 73-56 win yesterday, Creighton had to go to double-overtime to beat lowly DePaul 85-81 (2 OT) yesterday.  The Bluejays lack depth as it is, and Kalbrenner played 47 minutes while Neal played all 50 in the win.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank for the Huskies today.  Bet UConn Friday.

20* UNC/Duke ACC No-Brainer on UNC +7.5

Duke lost Cooper Flagg (18.9 PPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) to an ankle injury yesterday to Georgia Tech.  They also lost their best defender in Maliq Brown to another dislocated shoulder.  They will almost certainly be without both guys today.

Duke should not be 7.5-point favorites over North Carolina without Flagg and Brown.  Flagg had 15 points, 9 rebounds and 6 assists to lead the Blue Devils to a 82-69 win over UNC in the regular-season finale.  Brown had 8 points and was a menace switching on the perimeter to stop UNC's guards down the stretch.  UNC led basically the entire way until the final few minutes with Duke pulling away late.  UNC wants revenge and has a great shot at getting that revenge today without having to deal with Flagg and Brown.  Bet UNC Friday.

20* Illinois/Maryland Big Ten No-Brainer on Maryland -1

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  Illinois played an absolute shootout against Iowa yesterday in a 106-94 victory and I question how much they'll have left in the tank.

Maryland got a bye into the quarterfinals.  The Terrapins already beat Illinois 91-70 on the road in their lone meeting this season.  Bet Maryland Friday.

15* George Washington/George Mason Atlantic 10 ANNIHILATOR on George Mason -2.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  George Washington beat Fordham 88-81 yesterday, while George Mason got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Bet George Mason Friday.

20* Texas/Tennessee SEC No-Brainer on Tennessee -9.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  The system is even better when the rested team is playing a team playing for a 3rd straight day.

That is the case here as Texas will be playing for a 3rd consecutive day while Tennessee got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Texas was in two dog fights the last two days beating Vanderbilt 79-72 before upsetting Texas A&M 94-89 (2 OT) yesterday.  That 2 OT game will make the Longhorns even more tired head into this one as three starters played at least 40 minutes yesterday.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* FAU/Tulane AAC ANNIHILATOR on Tulane +3.5

This play fits into a conference tournament system where we play on the rested team against a team that played the previous day and was in a close game.  FAU beat Charlotte 64-59 as 10-point favorites yesterday, while Tulane got a bye into the quarterfinals.  Tulane beat FAU 80-65 in their lone meeting this season.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Tulane Friday.

20* UNLV/Utah State MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah State -7

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Oklahoma/Kentucky SEC ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky -6.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Villanova/UConn Big East No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* USC/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -9

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Nevada/Colorado State MWC No-Brainer on Colorado State -4.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* DePaul/Creighton Big East ANNIHILATOR on Creighton -11.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Stanford/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville -10

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 No-Brainer on Texas Tech -5.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* Iowa/Illinois Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Illinois -10.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Texas/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -6

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

20* Northwestern/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -7.5

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Xavier +2

No analysis from Monday, March 10th through Thursday, March 13th. I'm on vacation for 4 days. I will be putting in the same amount of research as normal on every play I release and betting them all myself as well. I'm just saving myself some time by not writing analysis so I can enjoy my vacation a little more. Good luck everyone! I'll be back with analysis on Friday, March 14th.