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15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Penn State +4

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are in a letdown spot.  They pulled off the Los Angeles sweep of USC and UCLA with impressive upset victories out on the West Coast.  Now they return home where they have been terrible in their last two home games, losing by 21 to Illinois as 6.5-point dogs and getting upset by Washington as 3.5-point favorites.

It's time to 'buy low' on the Penn State Nittany Lions.  They are much better than their 4-12 record in Big Ten play would indicate.  Seven of their 12 Big Ten losses have come by 6 points or fewer, so they have just had poor luck in close games.

They also lost 69-61 at home to Minnesota in their first meeting this season, so they will be out for revenge.  Consider the Nittany Lions shot just 34.5% in that game while the Golden Gophers shot 53.1%.  It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch today.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Iowa State +9.5

Note: I put in this play before I found out the news that Keshon Gilbert (14.1 PPG, 4.5 APG) and Curtis Jones (17.2 PPG) are both out for Iowa State.  I added the UNDER 133.5 since and like that play a lot more.  I no longer recommend a bet on Iowa State, but if you receive this play then bet on the UNDER 133.5 instead.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE WEEK on North Dakota +4.5

I love the spot for North Dakota today.  They have had the last week off to rest and prepare to beat their biggest rivals in North Dakota State.  They are out for revenge after a 87-82 road loss to the Bison on January 25th in their first meeting this season.

This is a terrible spot for the North Dakota State.  The Bison just upset South Dakota State 77-68 as 6.5-point road dogs on Wednesday, avenging an earlier defeat to what they consider their biggest rivals.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat their 'little brother' in the Fighting Hawks again, and they only have two days in between games to prepare.  I expect the Bison to fall flat on their faces today and lose this game outright.

North Dakota has been impressive in two of its last three home games beating Oral Roberts 88-77 as 6-point favorites and upsetting South Dakota State 80-75 as 6.5-point dogs.  The Fighting Hawks have been competitive in every Summit League home game this season.  Keep in mind they only lost by 7 to Alabama as 25-point home dogs earlier this season as well.  Bet North Dakota Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon PK

The Oregon Ducks are undervalued right now after a five-game losing streak with four of those losses on the road.  They have since rebounded with home wins over Northwestern by 6 and Rutgers by 18.  Now the Ducks take another step down in class here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

I like the spot for Oregon because they will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days so the travel to Iowa isn't that big of a factor.  Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes return home after a two-game road trip on the East Coast against Rutgers and Maryland.  They will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days with a lot of travel involved.

Iowa is 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall. Injuries are starting to mount up.  They were already without F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).  Now G Drew Thelwell (10.5 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury after missing their last game.

That was a 26-point road loss at Maryland as the Hawkeyes gave up 101 points to the Terrapins.  They are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference ranking 146th in adjusted defense.  Oregon is nearly 100 spots better at 48th in adjusted defense.

The Hawkeyes clearly don't have the same kind of home-court advantage they have in past seasons because fans just aren't supporting this team, and they know Fran McCaffrey is likely out the door after this season.  

The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games with their lone win coming against Penn State by a single point.  That's a Penn State team that has lost 11 of its last 12 games.  The Hawkeyes were also upset as 8-point home favorites by Minnesota.  Bet Oregon Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Belmont PK

It's a good time to 'sell high' on Northern Iowa.  The Panthers have won 5 consecutive games against a pretty soft schedule with three home games and a neutral game.

The Panthers are in a tough spot not after having their game against Murray State pushed back until Monday due to weather.  Now they will be playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Belmont will have the rest and preparation advantage after having the last 3 days off.

The Bruins will be motivated for revenge from a 76-70 road loss at Northern Iowa in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 39.3% as a team, 31% from 3-point range and 59% from the FT line, yet still only lost that game by 6.

The Bruins are due some positive shooting regression when you consider they are an elite offensive team ranking 54th in adjusted offense, 25th in effective FG percentage and 9th in 3-point percentage.  They want revenge, have the rest advantage and they should be bigger home favorites tonight as a result.  Bet Belmont Wednesday.

15* NC State/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on NC State +10.5

North Carolina is just 3-5 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  None of the three wins were impressive, either.  The Tar Heels needed OT to beat Boston College as 19.5-point home favorites.  They beat Pitt by 1 at home and beat a poor Syracuse team by 6 on the road.

Asking the Tar Heels to win this game by double-digits to beat is is asking a lot with just how poorly they are playing right now.  I know NC State will show up for this game against their biggest rivals.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of when they took Duke to the wire on the road a few weeks ago.  They also lost by just 1 at Stanford.

NC State wants revenge from a 63-61 home loss to UNC in their first meeting this season.  They lost by just 2 points despite shooting just 36.9% from the field.  I fully expect them to take the Tar Heels to the wire again in the rematch.  Bet NC State Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Air Force +10

The Air Force Falcons are 0-14 SU in Mountain West play this season.  Due to that winless conference record, we are 'buying low' on the Falcons tonight.  I love the spot for them, and this is one of their best chances to get rid of that goose egg against a Wyoming team that is just 4-11 in conference play.

Air Force came close to beating Wyoming in their first meeting this season on January 4th in a 70-65 home loss as 3-point dogs.  Wyoming shot 57.1% overall and 9-of-13 (69.2%) from 3-point range while the Falcons were 5-of-13 (38.5%) from the FT line.  Yet the Falcons still only lost by 5.  Wyoming clearly will not shoot that well again in the rematch.

A big reason I love the spot for Air Force is the massive rest advantage.  The Falcons have had the last week off since losing at UNLV last Tuesday.  Wyoming will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days and started to show signs of wearing down in a 88-53 blowout loss at Colorado State last time out.  The Cowboys also played in altitude in New Mexico the game prior and will now be playing in altitude for a 3rd time in 7 days.  

Wyoming's four conference wins all came by 5 points or less or in OT.  Asking the Cowboys to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Air Force Tuesday.

20* Illinois/Wisconsin Big Ten No-Brainer on Wisconsin -3.5

The Wisconsin Badgers have quietly gone 12-1 SU in their last 13 games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They are also 12-1 SU at home this season with one of the better home-court advantages in the conference.

After having an entire week off, the Badgers returned to action on Saturday with one of their best performances of the season in a 94-84 road win at Purdue as 6-point underdogs.  They should still be very fresh for this game against Illinois playing just their 2nd game in 10 days.

While this would usually be a letdown spot off a huge road win, it won't be for the Badgers.  They will have no problem shifting their focus to getting revenge on Illinois, who they lost 86-80 on the road to way back on December 10th.  They went on their 12-1 run directly after that defeat.

Illinois is not playing well right now.  The Fighting Illini are 5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes home losses to USC by 10, Maryland by 21 and Michigan State by 14.  They are so inconsistent because they shoot a ton of 3-pointers and do so at just a 31.1% clip, which ranks 308th in the country.

This will be the 6th game in 17 days for the Fighting Illini, who are the much more tired team right now.  I think that fatigue showed in their 79-65 home loss to Michigan State over the weekend, and it won't get any easier tonight against a Badgers team motivated for revenge.  Bet Wisconsin Tuesday.

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado +18

The Colorado Buffaloes are undervalued due to having the worst record in the Big 12 at 1-14.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate.  They have just one conference loss by more than 16 points all season, so 13 of those 14 losses have come by less than this margin.

The Buffaloes are 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only lost by 10 as 14-point home dogs to Houston and by 12 as 17-point road dogs at Kansas.  They did pick up their first conference win over the season over the weekend in a 76-63 home win over UCF.

While that would normally set a team like Colorado up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case here.  The Buffaloes are playing with double-revenge after losing twice already to Iowa State this season.  They lost in Maui and they lost by 10 at home to the Cyclones in their Big 12 opener.  This is the rare time that teams get a chance to face each other for a 3rd time in the regular season.

Iowa State will not be motivated to beat Colorado a 3rd time.  Instead, the Cyclones will be looking ahead to their huge showdown against first place Houston on Saturday.  Iowa State has just one win by more than 15 points in its last seven games.  The Cyclones are overvalued right now, and I question their motivation tonight.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

15* Purdue/Michigan State Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Purdue +4

It's safe to say the Purdue Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing two straight games at Michigan and at home to Wisconsin.  I expect one of their best efforts of the season tonight at Michigan State to try and bounce back.

The loss to Wisconsin is easily explainable as the Badgers had an entire week off prior to that game and were the fresher, more prepared team.  They also shot 61.5% from the field, which isn't something the Boilermakers will have to worry about against Michigan State.

The Spartans are overvalued off an upset road win at Illinois where the Fighting Illini shot just 38.1%.  They had lost three of their previous four games with an upset home loss to Indiana, an upset road loss at USC and a road loss at UCLA as well.

Purdue owns Michigan State going 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with the lone loss coming by 3 points.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Boilermakers pertaining to this 4-point spread.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

20* Duke/Virginia ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia +14

The Virginia Cavaliers are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They won by 16 as 13-point dogs at Pitt, by 14 as 2.5-point home favorites over Georgia Tech and by 3 as 2-point road dogs at Virginia Tech.

The Cavaliers have been playing well for a while now going 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall not once losing by more than 15 points.  They are making a case for interim head coach Ron Sanchez to get the full-time gig moving forward as they are playing very hard for him.

The spot really favors the Cavaliers tonight.  Both teams played on Saturday, so both will have one day to get ready for this game.  However, Virginia had a week off prior to Saturday's game, so they will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.  The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and their 5th game in 13 days.  Bet Virginia Monday.

15* Utah State/New Mexico MWC ANNIHILATOR on Utah State +5.5

The Utah State Aggies are an elite offensive team that are scoring 81.8 points per game on 49.8% shooting on the season.  The Aggies rank 20th in adjusted offense, 14th in effective FG percentage and 110th.

While the Lobos are an improved defensive team this season, the fact that they held Utah State to just 63 points on 37.5% shooting in their first meeting was an absolute fluke.  The Aggies shot 5-of-31 (16.1%) from 3-point range and 10-of-23 (43.5%) from the FT line.  It was far and away their worst game of the season.

They want revenge from that shocking 82-63 home loss to the Lobos.  That was a tough spot for Utah State with just two days to prepare for New Mexico, while the Lobos had the previous six days off and were the fresher, more prepared team.  Now it's the Aggies with an extra day to prepare with the last four days off coming into this one.

I expect the Aggies to be much more efficient on offense in the rematch and get to 80 points, which they have gotten to in seven of their last 11 games coming in.  Utah State is 21-3 SU this season with the other two losses coming by 2 and 3 points.  The Aggies are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season with outright upset road wins at St. Mary's, San Diego State and Nevada.  This is a game the Aggies can win outright.  Bet Utah State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Wichita State +8

The Memphis Tigers are overvalued right now laying 8 points on the road to Wichita State.  The Tigers are 21-4 this season and nationally ranked.  They have really struggled to live up to expectations here of late.

Memphis is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  That includes a non-cover in a 61-53 home win over Wichita State as 11.5-point favorites.  Now the Tigers are 8-point road favorites in the rematch, and that's not a big enough adjustment down for flipping home courts.

Wichita State is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now.  The Shockers are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games overall including road wins at Charlotte and USF, as well as a home win over UTSA.  The Shockers are motivated for revenge and will give the Tigers a run for their money today.  

Four of the last five meetings between Memphis and Wichita State were decided by 8 points or fewer.  The Shockers are 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Bet Wichita State Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +16

Washington State played St. Mary's about as tough as anyone has here of late in their first meeting this season.  The Cougars lost 80-75 as 6-point home underdogs.  Now they are catching 16 points in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

St. Mary's even shot 57.7% from the field in that 5-point win over the Cougars.  They aren't going to shoot better than that in the rematch.  I think Washington State matches up well with the Gaels because you need to be able to shoot the ball well over their pack line defense.

Well, Washington State ranks 10th in effective FG percentage and 82nd in 3-point percentage.  The Cougars have the shooters to make St. Mary's pay for slacking off of them.  They have shot at least 49% from the field in 12 of their last 17 games overall.

This looks like a letdown spot for St. Mary's after five straight games against four of the top teams in the conference in Santa Clara (twice), Gonzaga, Oregon State and San Francisco.  They won't be all that motivated to beat the Cougars again.  Bet Washington State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Kansas State +6.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-3 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  They went on to upset Arizona 73-70 as 3-point home dogs, handing Arizona just its 2nd conference loss of the season.  And the Wildcats cannot afford a letdown here as they have played themselves back on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.

BYU is getting too much respect here.  This is a tough spot for the Cougars having to travel back home after road games at Cincinnati and at West Virginia.  They lost by 18 at Cincinnati which followed up an 11-point home loss to Arizona.  This tough travel schedule with three of their last four games long road trips will have taken its toll.  The Wildcats should have a big advantage in the paint and on the glass against the undersized Cougars.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina +15

Many thought Florida would suffer a letdown the game after upsetting Auburn as 11-point road underdogs.  They showed up and took care of business in a 81-68 road win as 2.5-point dogs at Mississippi State.  This is the spot the letdown occurs Saturday at home against an unranked South Carolina team.

The Gamecocks are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games overall.  One of those losses came 70-69 at home to Florida as 11-point dogs.  So they already proved they could play with the Gators, who won't be all that motivated to beat this team again, especially after playing the cream of the crop in the SEC prior.

South Carolina has been much more competitive than that 0-11 SU record would indicate.  They are actually 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with a 3-point loss to Auburn, that 1-point loss to Florida, a 5-point loss to Mississippi State, a 4-point loss to Texas A&M and a 4-point loss to Ole Miss.  So they have proven they can play with the class of the SEC.

Another reason I'm fading Florida is injuries to two of its key players.  F Alex Condon (10.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) is out, while G Alijah Martin (15.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is questionable.  I wouldn't be surprised if he sits considering it's South Carolina.  The Gamecocks are fully healthy and hungry for revenge heading into this one.  Bet South Carolina Saturday.

20* Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Thomas -7.5

I love the spot for St. Thomas Saturday.  The Tommies want revenge from a 89-78 road loss at Omaha in their first meeting this season.  That was such a favorable spot for Omaha with over a week off to prepare.

Now it's the Tommies in the advantageous rest spot.  They have had the last week off while Omaha only has one day in between games after a 98-85 road loss at South Dakota State on Thursday.  They also lost their previous road game outright as favorites at South Dakota.

St. Thomas may have the best home-court advantage in the conference.  The Tommies are 11-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 18.8 points per game.  They have won each of their last four home games by 12 points or more.

With first place in the Summit League on the line and a huge rest advantage, I'm expecting one of the best efforts of the season from the Tommies.  The tired Mavericks won't be able to keep up playing their 2nd road game in 3 days.  Bet St. Thomas Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Fresno State +8.5

Amazingly, Fresno State is 0-4 SU in OT games this season and 0-3 SU in OT games in conference play.  They managed to get blown out in two of those OT games losing by 11 to Nevada and by 11 at Wyoming.  I think their record in OT games has them grossly undervalued right now.

Fresno State is highly motivated for a victory and has played its best basketball at home this season.  The Bulldogs lost by 8 to Utah State, by 3 to San Jose State, by 5 to Colorado State, in OT to Nevada and by 14 as 14.5-point dogs to New Mexico in their Mountain West home losses this season.  They also beat Air Force by 9.

Now the Bulldogs face a team they can handle in UNLV< who they lost 87-77 to on the road is 15-point dogs in their first meeting this season on December 28th.  UNLV is just 2-5 SU in its last seven games with the two wins coming against two of the worst teams in the conference in Wyoming and Air Force.  Bet Fresno State Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss wants revenge from a 84-81 (OT) loss at Mississippi State on January 18th.  Now the Rebels get the rival Bulldogs at home this time around where they are 10-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and Texas A&M by a single point.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country, and I trust him to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  While the Rebels are surging right now going 4-1 SU in their last five games with their only loss to Auburn, the Bulldogs are faltering, going 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Rhode Island -6.5

Rhode Island is 12-2 at home this season.  The Rams want revenge from a 70-64 road loss at La Salle on January 25th where they shot just 34.5% from the field.  I like their chances of getting revenge in blowout fashion at home this time around.

La Salle is 3-10 SU & 3-10 ATS in road/neutral games.  The Explorers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four Atlantic 10 road games, losing by 22 at UMass, by 12 at Saint Louis, by 30 at VCU and by 12 at St. Joe's.  Bet Rhode Island Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado PK

Colorado is 0-13 in Big 12 play this season.  It's safe to say the Buffaloes are highly motivated to get that first conference victory, and this looks like their best chance to get it Saturday.  I expect the Buffaloes to take full advantage.

Colorado hung with arguably the two best teams in the Big 12 in Houston and Kansas losing by 10 to the Cougars and by 12 at Kansas in its last two games.  That just shows the potential of this team.  The Buffaloes also have one of the better home-court advantages in the country.

The Buffaloes want revenge from a 75-74 road loss to UCF in their first meeting this season.  The Knights have let go of the rope in recent weeks, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes double-digit home losses to Cincinnati and Iowa State and a 15-point road loss at Baylor.  

They are 1-4 SU in their last five Big 12 road games, and they have allowed at least 83 points in all six Big 12 road games this season.  The Knights are far and away the worst defensive team in the conference.  This is a tough travel spot for them having to go to altitude in Colorado.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Purdue CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +6

The Wisconsin Badgers are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The two losses came by 2 at UCLA and by 8 at Maryland in a game they led the entire way until late.

The Badgers have shown they have no problem going on the road going 6-1 ATS in Big Ten road games.  I love the spot for them today considering they have had the last week off since a 74-63 win at Iowa last Saturday.  That has given them a full week to rest up and to prepare to beat Purdue.

The Boilermakers don't have that same luxury.  They just played on Tuesday and will be playing their 3rd game in 8 days.  They lost 75-73 at Michigan.  The Boilermakers have been vulnerable at home recently with a 5-point win over Indiana as 12-point favorites and an outright loss to Ohio State as 10-point favorites.

These teams are pretty evenly matched, so getting 6 points with Wisconsin is a nice value when you consider their rest and preparation advantage.  It's also worth noting that 7 of the last 8 meetings between the Badgers and Boilermakers have been decided by 6 points or fewer.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on George Mason -3

George Mason is 20-5 this season and one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country as well as they are 14-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming by a single point.

What makes the Patriots such a trustworthy team is the way they get after it defensively.  The Patriots rank 13rd in adjusted defense.  They are tough to come back on once you get down because they play slow and make you work for everything you get on offense.

That's bad news for St. Joe's, which ranks 128th in adjusted offense and 53rd in adjusted defense.  What really stands out is just how poor the Hawks have been on the road this season.  The Hawks are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in Atlantic 10 road games including upset losses to Duquesne and Loyola-Chicago as well as a 16-point loss at Saint Louis.

All 14 of George Mason's home wins this season have come by at least 3 points, and 13 of them by more than 3 points.  I expect the Patriots to be fully focused knowing they get a week off after this game.  Bet George Mason Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers -6

I've been fading the Iowa Hawkeyes a lot lately especially since they lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) to a season-ending injury a few games ago.  They really miss his offense and defense both.

The Hawkeyes are 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone win coming by a single point over Penn State, which has lost 10 of its last 11 games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season while getting outscored by 16.8 points per game.  They have lost their last four road games all by double-digits.

Rutgers recently got Dylan Harper back from injury and he looks rejuvenated.  He had 28 points to lead them to an upset win over Illinois and 20 points in a hard-fought road loss to Maryland.  With him and Ace Bailey averaging nearly 40 points per game combined, this team could be dangerous moving forward.

This is a big step down in class for the Scarlet Knights and I expect them to take advantage.  Iowa ranks 154th in adjusted defense, far and away the worst defensive team in the Big Ten this season.  The Scarlet Knights should hang a big number on them in a blowout victory.  Bet Rutgers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +18

The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They have gone just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are 1-3 ATS in their last four home games only beating Kansas State by 10 as 14.5-point favorites and UCF by 4 as 12.5-point favorites.

Colorado remains winless (0-12) in Big 12 play.  With that record comes a great opportunity to 'buy low' on the Buffaloes.  They have been much more competitive than that winless record indicates as 11 of the 12 losses came by 16 points or less, or by less than this 18-point spread.  That makes for an 11-1 system backing the Buffaloes pertaining to this number.  They only lost by 10 to Houston last time out and will give Kansas a run for its money as well.  Bet Colorado Tuesday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas State +3.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 5-3 SU & 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

The Wildcats then got their revenge with a 81-73 home win over Kansas as 3.5-point underdogs.  While that would normally set them up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case with No. 13 Arizona coming to town.  Sitting at 12-11 on the season, the Wildcats need every signature win they can get at this point if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.

If anything it's a letdown spot for Arizona, which is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and coming off a huge 82-73 home win over Texas Tech.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against Houston, so this is a clear sandwich spot.  I think this is the perfect time to 'sell high' on Arizona tonight.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +9.5

Vanderbilt is 12-1 SU at home this season.  The Commodores have wins over the likes of Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee at home this season.  They should be able to hang with Auburn, and asking the Tigers to win this game on the road by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.

I know Auburn will be motivated to bounce back from a 90-81 home loss to Florida as 11-point favorites, but they also have their biggest rival in Alabama on deck Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them.  I don't think we get their best effort here, and it will take their best effort to even come close to covering this inflated number.  

I know we'll get the best effort from the Commodores with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  With that No. 1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Ole Miss -5.5

It looks like the LSU Tigers have quit.  They have gone 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last two games have been very concerning losing 89-58 at home to Texas and 81-62 on the road to Georgia.

Ole Miss has gone 2-4 SU in its last six games overall against a brutal schedule of Miss State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Auburn and Kentucky.  All four losses came down to the wire as well.  The Rebels finally get a break in the schedule today, and I look for them to take advantage with a blowout road victory.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE MONTH on Colorado +15

The Houston Cougars are overvalued right now.  That's especially the case with Houston being down one of its best players in Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG, 43.6% 3-pointers).  The Cougars already lack depth as it is, so being down their 2nd-leading scorer is huge.

After falling 82-81 as 9.5-point home favorites to Texas Tech, the Cougars had a lackluster 72-63 home win over Oklahoma State as 21-point favorites.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and win by more than 15 points against Colorado Saturday without Sharp.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Colorado.  The Buffaloes are 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS in Big 12 play.  But the Buffaloes have been much more competitive than that record would indicate, and there's no question they are treating this as their 'National Championship' game with Top 5 Houston coming to town.

Just two of the 11 conference losses have come by more than 15 points, and those were losses by 16 and 20 points.  The Buffaloes have been very competitive at home with losses by 2, 6, 8 and 10 points.  They will stay within this inflated number today.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Kansas/K-State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +4.5

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Even the first three losses were impressive falling by 4 to Texas Tech as 7-point home dogs, by 10 at Kansas as 14.5-point road dogs and by 8 at Baylor as 11-point road dogs.

The wins were even better beating West Virginia by 13 as 2.5-point home favorites, Oklahoma State by 28 as 7-point home favorites, Iowa State by 19 as 14.5-point road dogs and Arizona State by 1 as 3-point road dogs.  They ended Iowa State's 29-game home winning streak with that emphatic win, and avoided the letdown in their next game against Arizona State, which was extremely impressive considering they had Kansas on deck so it was the ultimate sandwich spot.

Now the Wildcats have their sights set on revenge from that 10-point road loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season.  Kansas is 2-4 SU in its six true road games this season losing by 13 at Creighton, by 9 at Missouri, by 17 at Iowa State and by 11 at Baylor.  The two wins came against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in UCF and TCU.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -4.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming by a single point 76-75 at home against Penn State as 3.5-point favorites.  That's a Penn State team that is 1-8 SU in its last nine games.

Making matters worse for the Hawkeyes is they just lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).  They were already lacking an inside presence defensively, and now they are going to be even worse off without Freeman.  Purdue hung 90 points on Iowa in their first game without Freeman last time out.

This is one of the best Wisconsin teams of the Greg Gard era.  The biggest reason is its his best offensive team as the Badgers rank 8th in adjusted offense.  The Badgers are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

We saw this matchup already this season with Wisconsin winning 116-85 at home against Iowa on January 3rd.  Freeman had 14 points for the Hawkeyes in that defeat.  The Hawkeyes are charmin soft as far and away the worst defensive team in the conference.  Bet Wisconsin Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Vanderbilt -2

I love the spot for Vanderbilt today.  The Commodores are pissed off following two consecutive road losses to Oklahoma and Florida.  But now they return home where they are 11-1 SU at home this season with wins over the likes of Tennessee and Kentucky int heir last two home games.

This is actually a step down in class for the Commodores against a Texas team that I'm just not that big of a fan of.  The Longhorns are just 2-3 SU on the road in SEC play with their last win coming recently against a LSU team that looks like they have quit.  They lost by 20 at Texas A&M, by 24 at Florida and by 3 at Ole Miss.  The Commodores should be favored by more.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14

San Jose State is the single-most underrated team in the country.  The Spartans are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have just one loss by more than 14 points all season, so this 14-point spread shows tremendous value.

Boise State is in a bit of a letdown spot here after winning three straight including a 71-62 road win at UNLV last time out.  The Broncos won't be all that motivated to beat the Spartans again after topping them 73-71 as 8.5-point road favorites on December 28th in their first meeting this season.

Meanwhile, the Spartans want revenge from that 2-point defeat to the Broncos, and they have the confidence knowing they can play with them.  They continue to be grossly undervalued tonight catching 14 points.  Bet San Jose State Friday.

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco +5.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the St. Mary's Gaels tonight.  The Gaels are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  You're now paying a tax to back them due to this winning streak.

The Gaels are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 62-58 home win over their biggest rivals in the Gonzaga Bulldogs last game.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat San Francisco, which they already beat by 20 at home in their first meeting this season.

But the Dons have been a different animal at home this season.  They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home with their last four home wins all coming by 9 points or more, including a 24-point win over Washington State and an 11-point win over Oregon State.

The Dons have a lot of room for improvement in the shooting department from that first meeting at St. Mary's, which was a 71-51 loss on January 23rd.  The Dons shot just 26.9% from the field while the Gaels shot 61.5%.  It's amazing the Gaels didn't win by more.  There won't be nearly that big of a discrepancy this time around, and I'm expecting the Dons to shoot much better than the 6-of-27 (22.2%) from 3 they shot in that 1st meeting.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +18

The Memphis Tigers have been the kings of playing to their level of competition under Penny Hardaway.  In fact, the Tigers are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of -15 or higher.  I always love fading them as big home favorites.

The Tigers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.  Meanwhile, Tulsa is 3-4 SU but 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.  Their largest loss was by 10 points during this seven-game stretch.  They covered as big road underdogs in both road games.

Tulsa is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Memphis.  The Golden Hurricane haven't lost by more than 12 points in any of their last 12 meetings with the Tigers.  Bet Tulsa Wednesday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse +18

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Duke Blue Devils.  They are coming off a win over their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home on Saturday.  They have another huge game on deck at Clemson this weekend.  This is the sandwich spot, and I expect the Blue Devils to be flat at Syracuse as a result.

You're paying a tax on Duke right now due to their 15-game winning streak.  The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season and are undervalued.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall and has been competitive in every game.

The Orange upset Notre Dame at home, only lost by 4 to Pitt as 8-point home dogs, and they upset Cal on the road.  They will treat this as their 'National Championship' game tonight with the opportunity to take down the 2nd-ranked team in the country.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -3

San Jose State is the single-most underrated team in the country.  The Spartans are 17-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They should be more than 3-point favorites against arguably the worst team in the Mountain West in the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.

Fresno State is in a rebuilding year and is just 2-15 SU in its last 17 games overall with the two wins coming by 8 over San Diego and by 9 over Air Force.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country.  The Bulldogs may be without senior F Mykell Robinson (10.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG) due to personal reasons tonight and they cannot afford to be without him.

San Jose State will not have a letdown because they can get back to .500 this season with a win.  I expect them to handle their business against a team they should easily handle tonight.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +18.5

Auburn is overvalued due to being the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  The Tigers are coming off a big road win at Ole Miss, a big road win at LSU and narrow wins by exactly 2 points over Tennessee at home and Georgia on the road.  The Tigers won't be all that motivated to beat Oklahoma tonight.

Porter Moser has the Sooners playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 7 at Texas A&M as 8.5-point underdogs.  They also upset Arkansas on the road, and crushed South Carolina by 20 and Vanderbilt by 30 at home.  They are playing too well right now to be catching 18.5 points tonight.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +22

The Houston Cougars are overvalued right now.  They are coming off an upset home loss to Texas Tech as 9.5-point favorites.  While they will be motivated to bounce back, asking them to win this game by 23-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

That's especially the case with Houston being down one of its best players in Emanuel Sharp (12.5 PPG, 43.6% 3-pointers).  The Cougars already lack depth as it is, so being down their 2nd-leading scorer is huge.

Houston won't be all that motivated to beat Oklahoma State again after topping the Cowboys 60-47 as 11.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  This spread has nearly doubled to 22 in the 2nd meeting, which is way too big of an adjustment.

The Cowboys come in with confidence beating Utah 81-72 at home to avenge a 21-point road loss earlier this season to the Utes.  They also only lost by 10 at Texas Tech recently, so they know they can hang with Houston on the road here tonight.  Bet Oklahoma State Tuesday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Purdue -6.5

Iowa just lost F Owen Freeman (16.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) to a season-ending injury in a 82-65 road loss at Ohio State on January 27th.  Freeman is now out for the season, leaving an already terrible team even worse off moving forward.

The Hawkeyes are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  It's not going to get any easier for them moving forward without Freeman, and with one of the best teams in the Big Ten in the Purdue Boilermakers coming to town.

Purdue is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Boilermakers are 10th in adjusted offense and 30th in adjusted defense this season.  Iowa is 153rd in adjusted defense and far and away the worst defensive team in hte conference.  Bet Purdue Tuesday.

15* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -5

San Francisco wants revenge from a 91-82 loss at Washington State in their first meeting this season.  Now the Dons get to face the Cougars are home where they are a perfect 13-0 SU this season.

These teams are headed in opposite directions as well.  Washington State has lost three straigth games by 28 at Santa Clara as 5-point dogs, by 5 at home to St. Mary's and by 2 at Pacific as 11-point dogs.  The Dons have won three of their last four all by double-digits.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Valley +10

We have one of the most underrated teams in the country in the Utah Valley Wolverines catching double-digits against one of the most overrated teams in the country in the Grand Canyon Antelopes Saturday.  I'll gladly take the value and the 10 points with the Wolverines.

Utah Valley is 15-6 SU & 12-7 ATS this season.  The Wolverines have been dominant of late going 10-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes a 72-64 win as 3.5-point home dogs to Grand Canyon on January 9th in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 36.5% from the field and still won by 8.

Grand Canyon is a woeful 6-14 ATS this season.  They have been winning games but struggling to get margin as expectations are through the roof after what they did last season.  And now this is a very unfavorable spot for them despite wanting revenge.

Grand Canyon only has one day to get ready for Utah Valley after beating Seattle 83-74 as a 10-point home favorite on Thursday.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines have had the last six days off since beating Seattle 70-66 as 5-point road dogs on January 25th.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team.  Bet Utah Valley Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -7

The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's.  Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian.  The Hurricanes are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall as well.

Miami has rarely even been competitive.  The Hurricanes have lost six of their last seven games by double-digits.  They just lost by 11 at home to a bad, short-handed Virginia team on Wednesday.  I expect them to get blown out again today.

Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall since getting its best player in Markus Burton (20.4 PPG) back from injury.  With him in the lineup they are capable of beating anyone and they have shown that against the top teams in the ACC, while taking care of business against the bottom feeders.  They will do just that with ease today.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* UNC/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +14

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the North Carolina Tar Heels They have gone 1-3 SU & 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with two losses by a single point.  They haven't lost any game by more than 15 points all season.

It's safe to say the Tar Heels will be 'all in' today against their hated rival in the Duke Blue Devils, who are grossly overvalued right now de to their 14-game winning streak.  They failed to cover their last two games winning by 7 at Wake Forest as 11.5-point favorites and by 10 at home against NC State as 22-point favorites.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series with the road team going 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  This number is simply too high tonight.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Houston ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +11.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They sit at 16-4 this season with their four losses coming by 1, 1, 4 and 5 points.  They haven't been blown out yet this season, and they aren't about to start Saturday.

This is a terrible spot for Houston.  The Cougars are a tired team after a two-game road trip at Kansas and at West Virginia.  They pulled off the miracle in double-OT to beat Kansas, and they staved off a big comeback by West Virginia.  Now they only have two days in between games to get ready for Texas Tech plus the flight from West Virginia back to Houston in between.  I think this is the ultimate flat spot for the Cougars.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF PK

UCF has been a wagon at home this season.  The Knights are 10-2 SU at home with their only losses coming to Kansas and Houston.  And they nearly upset Houston in a 69-68 loss as 13-point underdogs to show what they are capable of.

In their last home game, the Knights crushed TCU 85-58.  They followed it up with a 91-87 road loss to Kansas as 12.5-point dogs and likely would have won that game if not for some questionable calls by the refs.  Now they will take out their frustration on BYU tonight.

This is a terrible spot for BYU.  The Cougars are coming off a huge 93-89 (OT) home win over Baylor for their 3rd straight win and cover in Big 12 play.  I think they are overvalued now, and this trip to the East Coast is a long one.  I don't expect them to handle it very well.

BYU is 1-3 SU in Big 12 road games this season with the lone win at Colorado, which is one of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They also lost at Utah, at TCU and at Houston by 31.  This will be their 2nd-toughest road game of the season to this point.  Bet UCF Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Louisville -8

The Louisville Cardinals are a wagon right now.  They have won 10 consecutive games with eight of those 10 wins coming by double-digits.  That includes road wins over Florida State by 14, Virginia by 20, Syracuse by 24 and SMU by 25.

The Cardinals are actually 8-1 ATS in all road/neutral games this season playing their best basketball of the season on the highway.  Well, Georgia Tech isn't exactly an intimidating road atmosphere.

The Yellow Jackets have been competitive against the bottom teams in the ACC but they have been blown out when stepping up in class.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone win coming at home against lowly VA Tech.  They lost by 13 at Florida State, by 11 at home to Clemson, by 22 at SMU and by 7 at Syracuse.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +15.5

The Kansas State Wildcats have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and are one of the most underrated teams in the Big 12 right now.  They lost by 4 as 7-point dogs to Texas Tech, by 10 as 14.5-point dogs at Kansas and by 8 as 11-point dogs at Baylor.  They also blasted WVU by 13 and Oklahoma State by 28 at home.

This is a very tough spot for Iowa State.  The Cyclones return home from a two-game road trip out West against the Arizona schools.  After a big comeback to beat Arizona State, they lost in OT at Arizona.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as the Wildcats made a 60-footer at the buzzer just to force OT.

Iowa State is without its best shooter in Milan Moncilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers), which has really hurt their spacing on offense.  The Cyclones are much easier to defend without having to worry about their outside shooting.  Kansas State will pack it in and rely on its defense, which has been superb of late in holding three of their last five opponents to 61 points or fewer.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.

20* Auburn/Ole Miss ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the #1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We have seen that play out with Auburn going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall with one of the covers coming by a 0.5-point.

Auburn escaped with 2-point wins at Georgia and at home against Tennessee before beating lowly LSU by 13 as 12.5-point favorites.  I think this is where their luck runs out against an Ole Miss team that has been one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chris Beard is one of the best head coaches in the country and gets the most out of his teams.  He is doing that in Oxford as the Rebels are 16-5 SU & 12-8 ATS this season.  Three of their five losses have come by 3 points or fewer, so they are a tough team to get margin on.

Ole Miss is 9-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming 63-62 to Texas A&M after blowing a 4-point lead in the final seconds.  This will be the best home atmosphere for a game in Oxford all season with the No. 1 ranked team in the country coming to town.  I fully expect the Rebels to win this game outright.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Villanova -1

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Villanova and 'sell high' on Creighton Saturday.  The Wildcats are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, while the Bluejays are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Yet Villanova is favored here, and favored for good reason.

The Wildcats want revenge from a 86-79 road loss as 5-point dogs at Creighton in their first meeting this season on December 21st.  Creighton shot 55% from the field and 14-of-25 (56%) from 3 and still only won by 7.  I have to think they'll have some shooting regression in the rematch on the road this time around.

Villanova is 10-2 SU at home this season.  Creighton is 3-3 SU in true road games with a 24-point loss at Georgetown and two of the road wins coming against lowly DePaul and Butler, two of the worst teams in the Big East.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence +14

This is one of my favorite spots in college basketball.  It's betting on revenge-minded road underdogs who lost a close game to their opponent at home in their first meeting of the season.

That's the case with this game today.  Providence lost 72-70 as 5.5-point home dogs to St. John's on December 20th.  Now the Friars are catching 14 points in the rematch on the road, which is a 8.5-point adjustment from that first meeting.  That's way too big of an adjustment for flipping home courts.

This has been a closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Friars and Red Storm have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Better yet, Providence hasn't lost by more than 14 to St. John's in any of their last 26 meetings.  That makes for a 26-0 system backing the Friars pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Providence Saturday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +8.5

Illinois-Chicago wants revenge from a 61-60 home loss to the Bradley Braves on January 11th less than three weeks ago.  The Flames led that game the entire way and led by 5 in the final seconds before giving up consecutive 3-pointers and losing at the buzzer.  They have not forgotten, and I fully expect them to give Bradley a run for its money tonight.

The Flames are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball.  They are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have been at their best on the road this season going a perfect 8-0 ATS in true road games not once losing by double-digits.  That's basically what it's going to take tonight for the Braves to cover.

This is a letdown spot for the Braves.  They won't be that motivated to beat the Flames a 2nd time.  They are fat and happy following five consecutive victories and 10 wins in their last 11 games overall.  But they have been very fortunate in close games during this stretch with six of those 10 wins coming by single-digits.  Bet Illinois-Chicago Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on West Virginia +8.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Houston Cougars.  They erased 6-point deficits in regulation and in OT to beat Kansas in double-OT over the weekend.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia, who they already beat by 16 at home in their first meeting this season.

The Mountaineers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, especially in big games like this.  They already upset Iowa State 64-57 at home as 6.5-point dogs.  Now they are catching 8.5 points to Houston, which is too much given the brutal spot for the Cougars.  Keep in mind they nearly lost outright as 13.5-point favorites at UCF in their previous road game before Kansas.  Bet West Virginia Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia +1.5

The Miami Hurricanes are 1-16 SU in their last 17 games overall with upset home losses to Charleston Southern and Mount St. Mary's.  Their lone win during this stretch came against Presbyterian.  The Hurricanes have no business being favored over the Virginia Cavaliers tonight.

Miami nearly ended its losing streak over the weekend against a short-handed California team.  Matthew Cleveland caught fire in the 2H to lead the comeback and force OT on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.  But in the end the Hurricanes came up short, and it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.  They now head back home from a two-game road trip to California.  I think this team would rather be on the road than be dealing with all of the distractions back home about how poor of a season it has been.

After a brutal stretch of games, the Cavaliers now have a winnable game that I fully expect them to take advantage of.  They beat Boston College by 18 in their lone win over their last seven games.  They will relish this opportunity to get back in the win column.  Bet Virginia Wednesday.

25* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU +12.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers accordingly that are very difficult to live up to.  It puts a massive target on their backs as well.

I think this is a clear letdown spot for Auburn after surviving a pair of close 2-point wins at Georgi and at home against Tennessee in their last two games coming in.  They will need to play a perfect game to cover this big of a number on the road at LSU tonight.

The LSU Tigers have been very competitive in SEC play despite their poor record.  They only have one loss by more than 12 points in conference play this season.  This despite playing a brutal schedule with four of their last five games on the road.

In their lone home game during this stretch, they beat Arkansas who had their best player in Fland for that game.  The Tigers only lost by 7 at Alabama over the weekend to show what they are capable of.  They will treat this like their 'National Championship' game, and I fully expect them to give Auburn a run for its money tonight.  

The home teams is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet LSU Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +14.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  They then covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada before topping Wyoming 67-58 at home as 3-point favorites.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they will be the more rested team.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, while San Diego State will be playing its 3rd game in 7 days coming off consecutive road wins at Air Force (by 1) and at Nevada.

It's hard to trust San Diego State to get margin on teams because they are so poor offensively ranking just 112th in adjusted offense.  They also play slow and limit possessions, and San Jose State plays even slower, so this game won't see many possessions. In two meetings last season, San Jose State lost by 3 as 10-point home dogs and by 8 as 21.5-point road dogs to the Aztecs.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on BYU -3.5

The BYU Cougars are 10-1 SU & 7-4 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 26.3 points per game.  They have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that was on display in their 80-52 win as 7-point home favorties over Cincinnati last time out.  They also beat Oklahoma State by 16 and Arizona State by 20 at home in Big 12 play this season.

This is a terrible spot for the Baylor Bears.  They will be playing their 2nd road game in 4 days both in altitude after a win at Utah on Saturday.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Cougars tonight.  Baylor already has blowout losses at Iowa State by 20 and at Arizona by 11 in Big 12 play this season.  This one won't go much better for them tonight.

The Bears have been playing basically a six-man rotation due to injuries.  They are without Langston Love (6.5 PPG) and could be without Jeremy Roach (11.9 PPG) again tonight.  Playing in altitude will only add to their fatigue, and I expect BYU to run them out of the building tonight.  Bet BYU Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -8

Notre Dame wants revenge from a 86-75 road loss at Georgia Tech on December 31st in their first meeting this season.  The difference is Notre Dame did not have its best player in Markus Burton (19.9 PPG) healthy for that game.

Since Burton returned, the Fighting Irish have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They took NC State, Duke and Syracuse to the wire on the road, lost by 1 to UNC at home and crushed Boston College by 18 at home and Virginia by 15 on the road.

Georgia Tech is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in true road games this season losing by 13 at Florida State, by 7 at Syracuse, by 22 at SMU and by 15 at Oklahoma.  Injuries are a problem for the Yellow Jackets right now as they are without G Reeves (9.3 PPG) and could be without G Mustaf (9.1 PPG), who is questionable.  Bet Notre Dame in revenge mode Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Arizona ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Iowa State +2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered their letdown against West Virginia after beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They are going to be pretty 'spot proof' moving forward because they already tasted that defeat and clearly didn't like the taste of it.

The Cyclones have responded with a 108-83 home win over UCF and a 76-61 road win at Arizona State in their two games since that loss to WVU.  Now they get to stay out West for a short trip from Tempe to Tucson which is a big factor as to why I'm on the Cyclones tonight.

Arizona is pretty easy to figure out.  The Wildcats can't beat the best teams in the country, but they thrive against middling to bad teams.  The Wildcats already have six losses this season, including losses by 15 to Wisconsin, by 14 to Duke and by 16 to Texas Tech.  They are 1-5 against KenPom Top 43 teams with their lone win coming against overrated Baylor at home.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Iowa State Monday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on California -9

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next seven games without him to fall to 4-15 SU & 3-16 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-15 SU in its last 16 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last five losses have come by double-digits, including a 35-point loss at Duke, a 43-point home loss to SMU and a 37-point road loss at Stanford in their last three games coming in.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play going 0-8 SU & 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall.

California is coming off two of its most impressive games of the season winning 65-62 at NC State as 6-point dogs and 77-68 at home over Florida State as 3-point dogs.  The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They will relish this opportunity to put it on Miami tonight at home.  Bet California Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Portland +25

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games overall and I would argue they are the most overrated team in the country.  They are elite on offense but this is the worst defensive team of the Mark Few era.

That was on display in their last two games allowing 58.5% shooting to Oregon State in a 97-89 (OT) loss and allowing 53.7% shooting to Santa Clara in a 103-99 home loss in regulation.

Portland shot 33.3% in its 81-50 road loss to Gonzaga in their first meeting this season.  I have to think the Pilots are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and thus should be able to stay within this 25-point spread.  Bet Portland Saturday.

20* UConn/Xavier FOX No-Brainer on Xavier -1.5

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their las four games overall including an upset road win at Marquette.

Xavier is pissed off after blowing a 16-point 2H lead to lose 79-71 (OT) at St. John's last time out.  That was a brutal beat as I had Xavier +8 in that game and the line closed +7 so most lost.  It was also a misleading final, and taking St. John's to OT on the road is impressive either way.

Now the Musketeers have their sights set on revenge from a 94-89 (OT) road loss at UConn on December 18th.  Freemantle didn't even play in that game and they took the Huskies to OT on the road.  UConn had Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) healthy for that game and he scored 14 points.  McNeeley has missed their last five games and likely will miss this one as well.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -2.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico.  And last time out they covered as 13-point dogs at Nevada.

I love the spot for San Jose State because they have had the last week off and get another reprieve here with a very winnable game against one of the worst teams in the Mountain West in Wyoming.  The Cowboys are in a letdown spot off an upset loss at UNLV which put to end a three-game losing streak by 8 at home to New Mexico, by 41 at Boise State and by 16 at home to Colorado State.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Duke/Wake Forest ESPN No-Brainer on Wake Forest +11.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Duke Blue Devils.  They have gone 12-0 SU & 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have benefited from an extremely soft schedule to open ACC play and I think they finally get a run for their money today.

Wake Forest is 15-4 this season including a perfect 10-0 at home this season where they upset North Carolina last time out.  They also crushed Stanford by 13, NC State by 18 and James Madison by 17 in their previous three home games.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Duke winning both home meetings outright during this stretch.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Arizona State +10

The Iowa State Cyclones have struggled on the road in Big 12 play.  They scored at the buzzer to force OT at Texas Tech in a 85-84 win.  They lost outright as 6.5-point favorites at West Virginia.  And they only beat Colorado by 10, which is a Colorado team that is currently on a 7-game losing streak starting with that defeat.

West Virginia is a recent common opponent of Arizona State.  The Sun Devils went on the road and upset West Virginia outright as 9-point road dogs.  They don't get blown out at home as their largest home loss came by 6 points.  Each of their last four Big 12 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.

Arizona State is fully healthy with G Jason Sanon (12.8 PPG) upgraded to probable today.  Iowa State just lost its best shooter in Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG, 44.3% 3-pointers) and will be without him until nearly tournament time.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on St. Mary's.  The Gaels are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, but they couldn't have possibly played an easier schedule getting to face Pepperdine (twice), San Diego, Loyola-Marymount, Portland and Pacific.

The last time they had to face a real opponent they lost outright to Utah State as 5.5-point home favorites.  That was the end of a stretch that saw them go 1-6 ATS in their previous season games.  They only beat UTSA by 8 at home, Merrimack by 5 at home, and lost outright to ASU, Boise State and Utah State.

San Francisco is 16-5 this season with wins over Boise State, Saint Louis, Santa Clara and Oregon State.  Three of their five losses came by single-digits.  The Dons have a knack for playing the Gaels tough, especially on the road.

Indeed, the Dons haven't lost any of their last five trips to St. Mary's by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the Dons pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  They have lost 10 straight in the series and desperately want to end this streak tonight.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Utah +11.5

Grand Canyon is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Antelopes are just 5-12 ATS in all games this season.  That's even after consecutive blowout wins and covers at home against Tarleton State and Abilene Christian.

I think those two blowout wins have the Antelopes overvalued again tonight as 11.5-point road favorites over Southern Utah.  They only beat Southern Utah 82-71 as 16-point home favorites in their first meeting this season on January 4th three weeks ago.

Now the Thunderbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch, and they are catching 11.5 points at home to boot.  They will be happy to be at home after having to play five of their last eight games on the road and all against quality teams.  The Thunderbirds are 7-2 SU at home this season with both losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Southern Utah Thursday.

20* Miami/Stanford ESPNU Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -10

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next six games without him to fall to 4-14 SU & 3-15 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-14 SU in its last 15 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  Each of their last four losses have come by double-digits, including a 117-74 home loss to SMU last time out and a 89-54 loss at Duke the game prior.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

The Stanford Cardinal are playing well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall including an upset road win at North Carolina as 11.5-point dogs last time out.  They won their only two ACC home games by double-digits over Virginia by 23 and VA Tech by 11, and I fully expect them to beat the Hurricanes by double-digits tonight.  Bet Stanford Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Xavier +8

The Xavier Musketeers have been rolling since getting their best player in Zach Freemantle (16.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG) back from injury.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, including an upset road win over Marquette last time out.

While that win over Marquette could set most teams up for a letdown spot, that won't be the case for the Musketeers tonight.  They want revenge from a 82-72 home loss to St. John's on January 7th just two weeks ago.  They shot just 37% from the field and 22% from 3-point range in that loss and are due some positive regression in the rematch.

This feels like a letdown spot for St. John's if anything.  The Red Storm are riding high on a five-game winning streak and won't be that motivated to beat Xavier for a second time this season.  The Musketeers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet Xavier Wednesday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on UCF +16.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are overvalued right now since beating Kansas by 17 at home.  They went on the road and were upset by West Virginia last time out, and now I believe they are laying too many points at home tonight to UCF.  The Cyclones just lost Milan Momcilovic (10.3 PPG) to a hand injury prior to the Kansas game and his loss will be felt.

UCF (12-5) is one of the more underrated teams in the Big 12.  They have upset wins over Texas A&M at home and Texas Tech on the road this season.  They only lost to Houston by 1 as 13-point home dogs last time out, they upset Arizona State on the road the game prior, and they only lost by 8 at Arizona the game before that.

The Knights are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and will hang within this inflated number tonight.  Bet UCF Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Duquesne +4

The Duquesne Dukes are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven lined games with six outright upsets as underdogs.  

They beat UC-Irvine by 16 as 7-point home dogs, beat Rhode Island by 12 as 1.5-point home dogs, beat Saint Joe's by 4 as 2.5-point home dogs, beat St. Bonaventure by 18 as 2-point home dogs and won at George Washington by 8 as 4-point road dogs.

The Dayton Flyers are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Flyers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall with two wins by a combined 3 points at home against UNLV and Loyola-Chicago as double-digit favorites in both.  

They have three outright upset losses during this stretch to George Washington by 20 as 9-point road favorites, to UMass by 4 as 10.5-point road favorites and to George Mason by 8 as 7.5-point home favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler +13.5

Connecticut is overvalued after winning back-to-back national championships.  They don't have as much talent as they did the two previous seasons, and injuries are really starting to catch up to them as well.

The Huskies are 5-2 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven't won any of their last 10 games by more than 13 points.  Once the schedule has gotten tougher and they have gotten into conference play, they haven't been able to get margin on teams.  Second-leading scorer Liam McNeeley (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is out with an ankle injury, and leading scorer Alex Karaban (15.6 PPG, 1.8 BPG) is questionable to play tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Butler Bulldogs.  They put an end to their 9-game losing streak with a 82-77 home win over Seton Hall last time out.  They have been extremely competitive in recent losses as seven of their last eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer.

That includes their 78-74 home loss to UConn as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st.  The Bulldogs have already proven they can play with the Huskies, and now they will be out for revenge on the road in the rematch.  They have five days off in between games to get ready for this one while the Huskies have only had two days off in between games.  Bet Butler Tuesday.

15* CBB Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Youngstown State -7.5

The Green Bay Phoenix are a dumpster fire.  They are 2-17 SU & 6-12 ATS this season.  Head coach Doug Gottlieb is in over his head, especially since he is without his best player in Anthony Roy (25.7 PPG) due to injury after suspending him earlier this season.

The Phoenix have zero home-court advantage as fans are already tired of this team.  They even lost to DII Michigan Tech at home a few weeks ago.  In fact, 16 of their 17 losses this season have come by at least 6 points, and 15 of the losses have come by 9 points or more.  So they have rarely even been competitive.

Youngstown State went on a 9-1 SU run in a 10-game stretch with the lone loss coming on the road to IPFW before losing to Cleveland State and home and Milwaukee on the road in their last two games coming in.  That assures the Penguins will not have a letdown today as they'll be motivated to bounce back from those two consecutive losses.  Bet Youngstown State Sunday.

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Santa Clara +15.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.

Gonzaga is coming off a 97-89 (OT) road loss at Oregon State as 9-point favorites on Thursday.  The Bulldogs will be on tired legs after having just one day to recover in between games.

I love the spot for Santa Clara.  After winning three straight games including impressive wins over Oregon State and San Francisco by 23, they were in a sandwich spot.  They lost outright at Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites on Thursday.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against Gonzaga.

In nine road/neutral games, the Broncos have just one loss by more than 7 points.  They beat Saint Louis, TCU and Bradley on neutrals, pulled the upset of McNeese State and only lost by 3 at San Francisco.  They will hang within the number today.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +7.5

The books and the betting public continue to underestimate the New Mexico State Aggies.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Texas.

The 89-83 win at New Mexico as 20-point underdogs prior to the Texas loss should have let everyone know this team is legit.  The Aggies have reeled off seven consecutive victories since that Texas loss with four of them coming by 28 points or more.  That includes a 30-point win over LA Tech as 2-point dogs and a 28-point win at UTEP as 7-point dogs.

Speaking of LA Tech and UTEP, Liberty is coming off consecutive losses to both of them to give these teams two common opponents.  The Flames lost at LA Tech as 1-point favorites and at home to UTEP as 2-point favorites.  They should not be laying 7.5 points to a Aggies team that will likely win this game outright today.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State +13.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico last time out.  That was the Lobos' only loss in their last eight games against a very tough schedule.

While San Jose State is grossly underrated, Nevada is grossly overrated.  The Wolf Pack have gone 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming at Fresno in OT as 12.5-point favorites and against Air Force by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by both Colorado State and Utah State at home, and Wyoming on the road.  They have no business being 13.5-point favorites here.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +7

The Iowa State Cyclones are in the ultimate letdown spot.  After escaping with a 85-84 (OT) road win at Texas Tech, the Cyclones came back home and took down their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks 74-57 on Wednesday.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia today, and I expect them to come out flat.

The Mountaineers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  First-year head coach Darian DeVries parlayed his success at Drake into the job in Morgantown.  And he is already winning getting the Mountaineers to 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS this season.

That includes 8-1 SU at home where the Mountaineers have beaten Oklahoma State by 19 and Georgetown by 13.  They have also gone on the road and beaten Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral, as well as Kansas and Colorado outright in true road games as underdogs.  This team is much better than they get credit for.  

The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones as they clearly have their number.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings as Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -3

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  After opening 4-1 this season, the Fighting Irish lost their best player in Markus Burton (19.0 PPG).  They promptly lost their next five games.

It's no surprise that since getting Burton back in the lineup, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 1 against UNC, by 1 at NC State and by 8 at Duke before crushing Boston College by 18.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over Syracuse today.

Notre Dame beat Syracuse 69-64 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having Burton.  Having him back will allow them to complete the season sweep with ease today.  This is a struggling Syracuse team that is 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  

Forward Donnie Freeman (13.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is questionable for the Orange today.  Freeman had 20 points and 11 rebounds in that first meeting with the Fighting Irish.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on SMU -5

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next five games without him to fall to 4-13 SU & 3-14 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-13 SU in its last 14 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

SMU is 13-4 this season with the four losses coming to UNC, Duke, Mississippi State and Butler.  Three of those are among the best teams in the country.  The Mustangs have pretty much handled the teams they are supposed to, and I fully expect them to handle the Hurricanes today.  Bet SMU Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier +10

I love this spot in conference play.  I love revenge-minded underdogs on the road after losing at home to their opponent in their first meeting this season.  Xavier fits the bill after losing 72-70 at home to Marquette as 4.5-point dogs on December 21st.  Now the Musketeers are catching a whopping 10 points in the rematch, and it's too much.

What makes me like this value even more is the fact that Xavier was without its best player in Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) in that first meeting with Marquette.  Having him back healthy for the rematch will make a huge difference.

The Golden Eagles have been living on the edge here of late and have gone 6-1 SU but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat DePaul by 2, Georgetown by 8, Creighton by and Xavier by 2 during this stretch.  Their luck may run out today, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We are seeing that as the Tigers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now Auburn just lost its best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury and he is out for this game.  They lost him in their narrow 66-63 win as 16.5-point favorites at South Carolina two games ago.  They were able to get by at home against Mississippi State in their next game thanks to shooting 55% and holding the Bulldogs to 34.9%.

But now the Tigers go on the road without Broome for the first time this season.  And they face one of the most improved teams in the country in Georgia, which is 14-3 SU this season.  That includes a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they have wins over the likes of Notre Dame by 21, Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 12.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington +9.5

George Washington is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Colonials have gone 13-4 SU this season.  They pulled the outright upsets in two of their last three beating Dayton by 20 as 9-point home dogs and Rhode Island by 8 as 6-point road dogs.

Speaking of Dayton, George Mason just pulled the upset by 8 at Dayton as 7.5-point dogs last time out.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Patriots, who have another big game on deck against St. Bonaventure on the road.  The Patriots failed to cover in each of their last two home games beating Richmond by 6 as 12-point favorites and UMass by 7 as 11-point favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet George Washington Saturday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on St. Joe's +2

St. Joe's returned home from two straight tough road losses at Saint Louis and at Duquesne and responded with a 93-57 blowout of Loyola-Chicago as 5-point favorites on Saturday.  They reeled off their 4th consecutive blowout home win with three of them coming by 18 points or more.  They also beat Villanova at home earlier this season.

Now the Hawks have had the last five days off and will be fresh and prepared to take down VCU tonight.  The Rams don't have the same luxury after beating Saint Louis at home on Tuesday.  They have only had two days off to get ready for this game and with travel involved.

VCU is 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS in true road games this season with their lone win coming against that bad Loyola-Chicago team that St. Joe's beat by 36.  They lost by 7 at New Mexico as 4-point dogs and by 2 at St. Bonaventure as 2-point favorites.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet St. Joe's Friday.

20* Gonzaga/Oregon State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State +10

The Oregon State Beavers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 13-5 SU & 13-4 ATS this season.  Three of the five losses came by 3 points or fewer to Oregon, North Texas and Santa Clara with two of those on the road.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.  Bet Oregon State Thursday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

This is exactly the type of game Memphis loses outright.  They are riding a four-game winning streak, but their last two games they were fortunate to escape with victories.  They won by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites over North Texas and then by 4 as 12.5-point home favorites over East Carolina.

Now their luck may run out tonight as they hit the road to face a Temple team that is vastly improved this season.  The Owls are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating Buffalo by 20 as 14.5-point home favorites, Wichita State by 6 as 1-point home favorites and Rice by 3 as 1-point road dogs.  Their lone loss came by 1 as 3-point dogs at East Carolina.

Temple is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three meetings with Memphis.  They lost by 7 as 9-point dogs and by 2 as 5.5-point dogs in their last two home meetings in this series.  I think they can take the Tigers to the wire again tonight at home where they are 6-0 SU this season.  Bet Temple Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +5.5

Loyola-Chicago is the most overrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Ramblers 3-6 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The wins weren't impressive as they came by 2 as 10.5-point favorites over USF, by 12 as 24-point favorites over Canisius and by 11 at lowly La Salle.

They suffered three outright upset losses, and against the best teams they faced they lost by 10 on a neutral to San Francisco, by 19 at home to VCU and by 36 at Saint Joseph's in their last game over the weekend.

Rhode Island is 13-3 this season.  Two of the three losses came against two of the better teams in the Atlantic 10 in Duquesne and George Washington.  They have upset wins over Providence and George Mason.

The Rams are better everywhere when you look at the metrics, especially on defense where they are 72nd while the Ramblers are 136th.  The Ramblers are also one of the worst teams in the country in FT shooting (64.8%), which could easily come into play here.  Bet Rhode Island Wednesday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Jose State +10

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force over the weekend.

Now the Spartans have their sights set on revenge from an 83-77 loss at New Mexico in their first meeting this season on December 4th.  Now they are catching 10 points at home in the rematch and are very live underdogs.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Lobos.  They are 7-0 SU in their last seven games overall and coming off a dominant 14-point home win over San Diego State.  That sets them up for a letdown and sandwich spot with a big game against Boise State on deck.  The Lobos won't be that motivated to beat San Jose State for a 2nd time this season.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis +10

It was going to take some time for the Saint Louis Billikens to gel as a team.  They have a first-year head coach in Josh Schertz from Indiana State bringing over his best transfers to pair with what was left over for the Billikens.

After opening 7-6 SU & 2-9 ATS, the Billikens have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall and have gelled in a big way.  They beat Fordham 88-63 as a PK on the road, beat Saint Joseph's 73-57 as 2-point home favorites and beat St. Bonaventure 73-68 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Now the Billikens have had the last five days off and will be fresh and ready to give VCU a run for its money as double-digit underdogs tonight.  VCU recently lost to that same St. Bonaventure team and only beat Fordham by 12 at home while Saint Louis beat them by 25 on the road.  That gives these teams some recent common opponents and shows the Billikens are playing the better basketball right now.  Bet St. Louis Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State +8

The Auburn Tigers just lost their best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury in their last game.  They struggled to get by a very bad South Carolina team 66-63 as 16-point favorites.  Broom is out again tonight, and the Tigers are on upset alert without him.

Mississippi State (14-2) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs rank 16th in offensive efficiency and 39th in defensive efficiency.  They have very few weaknesses.

The Bulldogs have actually played their best basketball on the road going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They beat SMU 84-79 as 1.5-point road favorites, beat Memphis 79-66 as 2-point road favorites and topped Vanderbilt 76-64 as 2-point road favorites.  They should not be 8-point underdogs tonight without Broome.  

This has been a tightly-contested rivalry with eight of the last 10 meetings either decided in OT or by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Mississippi State Tuesday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on UC-Irvine +6.5

UC-San Diego has been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball over the last two seasons.  But this is where it has finally caught up to them as they are now being asked to lay 6.5 points to a team I believe to be better than them in UC-Irvine.

UC-Irvine is 14-2 SU & 11-4 ATS this season while UC-San Diego is 14-2 SU & 11-3 ATS this season.  This line should be much closer to PK.  These Big West teams have almost no home-court advantage, and home court is consistently given too much credit in this conference.  These teams are almost dead even power rating wise.  There's clearly value with the Anteaters tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest -2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next three games without him to fall to 4-11 SU & 3-12 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-11 SU in its last 12 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play after a 15-point home loss to rival Florida State last time out.

Wake Forest is playing well going 4-1 SU in its last five games with its only loss coming at Clemson.  That includes a 10-point road win at Syracuse and an 18-point home win over NC State.  The Demon Deacons have been off for the last week and will have the rest advantage over the Hurricanes, who just lost on Wednesday at home to FSU and will only have two days in between games.

Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is out for the Hurricanes after missing their last five games, which is a big reason for their recent struggles.  Divine Ogochukwu (5.6 PPG) is questionable as well.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Valparaiso +8

Valparaiso is one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  The Beacons are 5-3 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The losses were as impressive as the wins during this stretch.

Valparaiso only lost by 6 as 10-point home dogs to Drake and by 6 as 14-point road dogs at Bradley.  They also upset Northern Iowa at home, and Missouri State and Western Michigan on the road during this stretch.

This is a massive letdown spot for Murray State.  The Racers are now getting a lot of respect after upsetting both Drake and Northern Iowa on the road in their last two games.  They had gone 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in their previous six games with their lone win coming by 3 over a bad Loyola-Chicago team.  They were upset by Illinois State in their last home game.  Bet Valparaiso Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -5

I love the spot for St. Joe's today hosting Loyola Chicago.  The Hawks will be highly motivated for a victory after two consecutive road losses to Saint Louis and Duquesne, which are two of the best teams in the Atlantic 10.

Now the Hawks are back home today and taking on one of the most overrated teams in all of college basketball in Loyola-Chicago.  The Ramblers are 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The three wins came at home against USF by 2 as 10.5-point favorites, at home against Canisius by 12 as 24-point favorites and on the road at lowly La Salle as 2-point favorites.  The losses are concerning as they were upset by Oakland, College of Charleston and Murray State and lost to VCU by 19 and San Francisco by 10.  Bet St. Joseph's Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State -1.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally get a reprieve today against the worst team in the Mountain West in Air Force.

The Falcons are 3-12 SU this season.  Their three wins have come against Jacksonville State, Mercyhurt and Stony Brook.  They are legitimately one of the worst teams in all of college basketball.  They lost by 18 to Boise State, 19 to UNLV and 29 to San Diego State recently.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +5

What more does Georgetown have to do to get some respect? The Hoyas are one of the most improved teams in the country and the books have failed to catch up to just how improved they are this season.

The Hoyas are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The lone losses came on the road at West Virginia by 13 and at Marquette by 8 as 13.5-point dogs.  They beat Xavier by 6 and Creighton by 24 in their two Big East home games this season.

UConn finally had its lucky 8-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, losing 68-66 at Villanova.  Five of the eight wins during that streak came by 6 points or less, so they were simply fortunate in close games.

The Huskies have struggled since losing 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago.  Prior to losing at Villanova, they only beat Providence by 3 at home as 14.5-point favorites.  The Hoyas are live underdogs today.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida State +2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next two games without him to fall to 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-10 SU in its last 11 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

Florida State has been undervalued going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  That includes 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is a game-time decision for the Hurricanes after missing their last four games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -2.5

The Bradley Braves have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves went 14-3 SU at home last season and they are 8-0 SU at home this season including a win over San Francisco.  They basically just have to win this game to cover this short number against Drake tonight.

The Bulldogs have been a great story getting off to a 12-0 start this season.  But they have been overvalued since, getting upset in each of their last two games at Illinois-Chicago and at home against Murray State as double-digit favorites.  

G Isiah Jackson is questionable for Drake after missing their last game against Murray State.  He starts and plays 28 minutes per game and does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs.  Meanwhile, Bradley is fully healthy coming into this one.

The Braves have had this game circled all offseason.  They will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with Drake.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes were crushed with two consecutive losses the last two years to Drake in the MVC Tournament.  I expect a big effort from the Braves tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova +1

The UConn Huskies have been very fortunate during their current 8-game winning streak.  Five of the eight wins have come by 6 points or less.  That includes a 3-point home win over Providence as 14.5-point favorites last time out.

A big reason the Huskies struggled to put away Providence was because they were without their 2nd-leading scorer in Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) for the first time this season.  McNeely is out again tonight.

Villanova has gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall playing its best basketball of the season.  The two losses came by 1 on a neutral to Maryland and by 7 at Creighton.  The Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, including a 44-point blowout of DePaul last time out.

UConn only won by a single point in their trip to Villanova last season.  The Huskies aren't nearly as strong this season after winning the national title the last two years.  The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country, and I think they get some revenge here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

20* Tennessee/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida -3

The Tennessee Vols are 14-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Yet they are underdogs to the Florida Gators tonight.  They are underdogs for good reason as I fully expect the Gators to win and cover and hand the Vols their first loss of the season.

This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season for the Volunteers.  They beat Louisville and got past Illinois 66-64.  This is their toughest road game of the season now against a 13-1 Florida team that is highly motivated coming off its first loss of the season at Kentucky by a final of 106-100.

But now the Gators are back home where they are 7-0 this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -2.5

Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the country this season.  The Bearcats are 10-2 with their two losses coming to Villanova and Kansas State, but thoe were two true road games.  They beat Xavier at home and Dayton on a neutral.

Cincinnati went 16-5 SU at home in the rugged Big 12 last season and is 7-0 SU at home this season.  The Bearcats have one of the better home-court advantages in the conference, and they will be highly motivated in their Big 12 home opener here after losing by 3 at Kansas State on the road in their Big 12 opener.

Arizona is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Wildcats are 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season.  They lost by 15 at Wisconsin, by 14 at home to Duke, by 5 on a neutral to Oklahoma, by 7 on a neutral to WVU and by 3 in a semi-home game against UCLA.  Their seven wins have all come against suspect competition.  Their best win was a 9-point home win over TCU as a 14-point favorite.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.