Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-30-20 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 216 | 101-103 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 9 pm et on Thursday. Questions around Anthony Davis' health and absent members of the Clippers have pushed this total lower, but I believe it will prove too low as the oddsmakers shade the totals lower in general due to the uncertainty around the style of play in the Disney restart. I'm actually anticipating something resembling 'normal' NBA basketball as we get going here in Orlando. The players have had enough time to settle in to 'bubble life' and get acclimated back with the game of basketball during exhibition affairs. I don't need to tell you that both of these teams are capable of pushing the tempo and hanging crooked numbers on the scoreboard. This is the lowest total we've seen the oddsmakers put out there in a matchup between these L.A. rivals this season and I believe we should take advantage. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 221 | 106-104 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and New Orleans at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. While more than a little rust is to be expected as the NBA returns following a four-month hiatus, I do feel that these teams have had more than enough time to get acclimated with their surroundings at Disney Wide World of Sports and I believe we'll see something that closely resembles 'normal' NBA play on Thursday. This is the lowest posted total we've seen in this particular matchup this season, noting that all three regular season affairs went 'over' the total. The Pelicans got good news with the return of Zion Williamson this week and by all accounts he'll be good to go for Thursday's opener. I'll take a shot with the 'over' as I anticipate a relatively loose affair to get things started in Orlando. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-11-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -1 | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Denver at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I look for the Mavs to bounce back from last night's double-digit loss at the hands of the Spurs as they return home to host the Nuggets on Wednesday. Denver is without question a formidable opponent but I like the significant edges Dallas holds in pace, three-point shooting and rebounding in this matchup. This is an important, albeit brief two-game homestand for the Mavs off back-to-back losses. The Nuggets haven't won consecutive games since February 23rd and 25th and while they're off a victory over the Bucks last time out, that wasn't quite as impressive as it appears on paper as Milwaukee was without Giannis. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 223 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Magic have exploded for 132 and 126 points in posting consecutive wins in Minnesota and Houston but I believe they'll be in for a stiffer challenge in Memphis on Tuesday. Going back to February 26th, Orlando has actually scored 130+ points on two other occasions as well, but those performances came against the T'Wolves (again) and the Hawks - one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Memphis has been playing pretty solid defensive basketball lately, save for a poor performance in Dallas last Friday. Outside of that, the Grizz have allowed 104 points or less in five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 54-15 going all the way back to 1996 when the total has been set at 220 or higher and both teams are coming off blowout wins (by 15+ and 20+ points). This trend has cashed at a 14-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-09-20 | Hornets +4.5 v. Hawks | 138-143 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Monday. I think there's reason to be optimistic when it comes to the Hornets right now. Of course, it would be easy to dismiss Saturday's upset win over the Rockets as a fluke - or that they simply caught Houston a down night. However, we've seen a positive trend from Charlotte as it has been competitive in each of its last six games since suffering an embarrassing blowout loss in Indiana on February 25th. This will be the Hornets first road test this month. They've actually won four of their last five games away from home. The Hawks have lost three straight games and Trae Young has cooled considerably, scoring 25 points or less in each of his last four games. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers -2.5 | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the LA Clippers minus the points over the LA Lakers at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers have certainly posted some statement wins lately with those including Friday's victory over Giannis and the Bucks. I look for them to fall short on Sunday, however, as they take on the rolling Clippers at Staples Center. The Clips have won six games in a row and enter this one well rested having last played on Thursday night in Houston - a game where they didn't really need to expend a ton of energy after building a 23-point halftime lead. Kawhi and co. got the better of the Lakers in their last meeting on Christmas Day and I expect more of the same here. Take the LA Clippers (10*). | |||||||
03-06-20 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 246 | 112-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. This has all the makings of a track meet, hence the extremely high posted total - although not exorbitant by today's standards. Both teams are coming off rare subpar offensive performances and that leads me to believe we'll see a big bounce-back here. Neither defense will offer anything in the way of resistance and I'm confident we'll see both offenses push the tempo from start to finish. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-04-20 | Pelicans +7 v. Mavs | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans suffered a disappointing loss at home against the T'Wolves last night but should bounce back on Wednesday night in Dallas. Zion and the Pelicans should have no trouble getting up for a game against Luka Doncic and the Mavs. Last night was simply a brutal motivational spot for New Orleans coming off Sunday's showdown with Lebron and the Lakers - a ho-hum Tuesday night home game against the lowly Wolves. Different story here. Expect a competitive game. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-03-20 | Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 246.5 | 139-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board but it's high for a reason. The Pelicans are a big favorite here but they're in a definite letdown spot off Sunday night's showdown with Lebron James and the Lakers. We can anticipate them letting their guard down defensively and the T'Wolves are certainly able to take advantage. On the flip side, Minnesota won't have any answers for the Pelicans steadily-improving offense led by mighty Zion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-02-20 | Blazers v. Magic -7 | 130-107 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Portland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Magic have a lot of upside right now and I look for them to easily brush aside the Blazers on Monday night. Orlando checks in sixth in the NBA in offensive rating over its last five games. While it sits just 20th in defensive rating over that stretch, the Blazers have been even worse, ranking 24th. Portland is also just 22nd in offensive rating over its last five contests. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
02-28-20 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 215 | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair on Friday night. The Raptors are in an obvious emotional letdown spot here, coming off that tough loss to the Bucks on Tuesday night and now facing the lowly Hornets. Note that the 'over' is 26-15 when the Hornets have played with double revenge over the last two seasons with those games averaging over 222 total points. The 'over' is 14-3 when the Raptors face opponents that get outscored by at least three points per game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just under 233 total points per game. Two previous meetings between these teams this season have totaled 228 and 222 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-27-20 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With both of these teams playing the second of back-to-back nights (and both coming off losses), I don't think either will be looking to get involved in a track meet here. Keep in mind, the 76ers are down a couple of bodies in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Philadelphia allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.6% from the field in last night's upset loss in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Knicks shot better than 50% but still managed only 101 points against a bad Hornets team in Charlotte. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Sixers focus on the defensive end of the floor, and they've been outstanding in that regard here at home, giving up just over 102 points per game while holding the opposition to 43.8% shooting. The Knicks have held six of their last seven opponents below 50% shooting, which is a step in the right direction given their struggles this season. Away from home they're limiting the opposition to 46.4% shooting this season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-26-20 | Magic -2 v. Hawks | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks came roaring out of the All-Star break, delivering consecutive wins over the Heat and Mavericks on their home floor. They fell back to Earth on Monday, however, suffering a 17-point loss in Philadelphia, giving up a whopping 129 points in the process. I look for the Magic to add to their woes on Wednesday night in Atlanta. Note that Orlando is 13-5 ATS when facing teams that own a winning percentage of between 25% and 40% this season and 22-11 ATS when facing opponents that are outscored by at least three points per game over the last two seasons. In both of those situations, they've outscored the opposition by an average margin of nine points. It's also worth noting that the Hawks are a miserable 1-8 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season - outscored by a margin of nearly 16 points in that situation. The Magic have certainly been a streaky team and they come in having won three of their last four games overall, with the lone loss coming in an underdog role at home against Dallas. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
02-25-20 | Celtics -7 v. Blazers | 118-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are coming off a loss to the Lakers on Sunday but that doesn't take away from the fact they've been playing terrific basketball, winners of three in a row ATS entering this contest. We successfully faded the Blazers in their last game - a narrow three-point win over the lowly Pistons at home. Keep in mind, in their first game following the All-Star break they suffered a double-digit loss against the Pelicans. Portland is just 4-14 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, outscored by over nine points on average in those contests. Despite the Blazers reputation as a team that likes to play fast, they've gone a miserable 11-23 ATS when facing teams that attempt at least 88 shots per game this season, with Boston falling in that category. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -7.5 | 131-111 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are coming off back-to-back losses to the Spurs and Rockets here on their home floor but they do draw a 'get right' matchup with the Suns on Monday night. Note that Utah has gone 40-22 ATS the last 62 times it has played at home following a double-digit home loss. Phoenix is a miserable 19-35 ATS playing on the road against a winning team in the second half of the season over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of nearly 14 points in those games. The Jazz desperately need to turn things around before facing what will be a highly-motivated, and championship-contending Celtics squad in their next game. Meanwhile, Phoenix could have one foot on the plane as it prepares to return home for its next six games after completing this three-game in four-night stretch. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
02-24-20 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 241 | 137-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This total indicates the high potential for a track meet on Monday night, just as we saw the last time these two teams met back in January when they combined to score a whopping 282 points in Milwaukee. Note that the Wizards have posted a 9-1 o/u record after failing to cover the spread in consecutive games this season with those contests totaling an average of nearly 243 points. There's no reason to shy away from playing 'over' these high totals with the Wiz involved as the 'over' has gone 19-10 in their games where the total has been set at 230 points or higher, with those contests finishing with an average of just under 244 total points. The Bucks have come storming out of the All-Star break with back-to-back blowout wins over the Pistons and 76ers but I could certainly envision a bit of a letdown here, and that should open the door for a competitive, high-scoring affair in the nation's capital. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-23-20 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 238.5 | Top | 115-101 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' as the surging Pelicans head to San Francisco to take on the reeling Warriors on Sunday evening. Most will be expecting a track meet here, especially with the Pelicans coming off a 128-115 win and the Warriors off a 135-105 loss in their respective first games following the All-Star break. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-9 when the Warriors face an opponent with a losing record this season, with those games averaging just 113 total points. The 'under' has also gone 13-4 when the Warriors have lost at least four straight losses this season, with those games averaging right around 118 total points - again far south of the total we're working with. New Orleans has seen the 'under' go 131-99 when on the road revenging a same season loss. The Pelicans have allowed just one of their last 11 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-22-20 | Nets -3 v. Hornets | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Nets aren't going to be a popular bet as a road favorite in Charlotte on Saturday night but I see this as a great spot to back them coming off that overtime loss in Philadelphia on Thursday. Charlotte has surprisingly won three straight games following a five-game losing streak but those three wins, albeit coming on the road, came against the likes of Detroit, Minnesota and Chicago. Here, we play against underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins in February, a trend that has gone 59-29 ATS since 1996. The Nets fall into an excellent 47-21 ATS situation in which teams are revenging a loss as a favorite of seven points or more against a team coming off at least two straight wins as an underdog. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
02-21-20 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Pacers as they head to Manhattan to square off against the Knicks. Indiana finally 'got right' with a much needed win over the Bucks in its last game prior to the All-Star break. Now the Pacers fall into a couple of terrific situations. They've gone 42-25 ATS after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons. They're also 15-4 ATS the last 19 times they've given up 105 points or more in five consecutive games, as is the case here. The Knicks certainly haven't shown that same type of resiliency, going 35-52 ATS after losing two of their last three over the last three seasons. New York enjoyed a brief surge earlier this month but has since gone right back into the tank with losses to the lowly Hawks and Wizards. This is precisely the type of game the Pacers need to get up for and not overlook, as they begin a grueling stretch that will see them play seven of their next nine games on the road. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
02-20-20 | Rockets v. Warriors +10 | 135-105 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Houston at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. It's easy to forget that the Warriors were actually playing a little better prior to the All-Star break, having gone 7-5 ATS over their last 12 games. They're hosting a Rockets team that will be looking for revenge after suffering a 116-104 loss on this floor back on Christmas Day. Keep in mind, Houston has gone just 56-84 ATS the last 140 times it has gone on the road revenging a double-digit loss. This game presents an opportunity for somewhat of a fresh start for the Warriors coming out of the break. The Rockets will need to get rolling again from a standing start after shooting 46.3% or worse while allowing opponents to shoot 48.8% or better in three of their last four contests. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
02-20-20 | Heat v. Hawks +6 | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Heat took the spotlight on All-Star Saturday night last weekend with Bam Adebayo winning the Skills Challenge and Dennis Smith Jr. winning the Slam Dunk Contest. It's back to business for the Heat on Thursday as they head to Atlanta to face the lowly Hawks. I like the way this spot sets up for Atlanta, noting that it has gone 32-19 ATS after losing three of its last four games over the last two seasons. The Hawks also fall into a strong revenge angle in which teams that are revenging a road loss by 10 points or more, and coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more (Atlanta lost its last game by 22 points as a three-point favorite against Cleveland) have gone an incredible 36-10 ATS the last 46 times that situation has come up. The Heat have been sleepwalking lately, going 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games and I look for the Hawks to take advantage of that lull here. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
02-14-20 | World v. USA OVER 298 | 131-151 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between World and USA in the NBA All-Star Rising Stars Game at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Last year's Rising Stars Game reached 305 total points. I don't believe they've set this year's total high enough as this will be the ultimate track meet. Team USA is favored by around five points in this one, and rightfully so with an absolutely loaded roster led by Trae Young and Zion Williamson. I don't expect the World Team to back down, however, not with Luka Doncic leading the way. No need to overthink this one, this will be one of the highlights of All-Star Weekend, as it always is. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-13-20 | Clippers +2 v. Celtics | 133-141 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Boston at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. This is a big step-up game for the Clippers as they come off a poor showing in Philadelphia two nights ago. I fully expect to see Los Angeles' best effort in this nationally-televised TNT affair. Note that the Clippers have gone an impressive 31-19 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. They're also an incredible 24-7 ATS off a road loss over that same stretch. Here we play against the Celtics as they fall into a situation that is a miserable 8-33 ATS since 1996 and 3-8 ATS this season where teams that outscore the opposition by 6+ points per game come off three consecutive games allowing 105 points or more. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-20 | Hornets v. Wolves -7.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Charlotte at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. This game has blowout written all over it as the T'Wolves return home to host the Hornets on Wednesday night. Minnesota finally brought an end to its long losing streak with a blowout win over the Clippers at home on Saturday but couldn't follow it up as it dropped a 12-point decision in Toronto on Monday. I do feel that game was closer than the final score indicated, however, and I'm confident we'll see the new-look T'Wolves come out with plenty of energy back home on Wednesday night. Charlotte picked up a rare victory on Monday night, but that came at the expense of the lowly Pistons who are in full tank mode after dealing Andre Drummond at the trade deadline. The Hornets are just 9-19 on the road this season and I don't expect them to hang with the Wolves on Wednesday. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind this lofty total but I feel it will prove too high on Tuesday night at Capital One Arena. The Bulls have not been the same team offensively on the road this season, where they rank 23rd in the league in offensive rating. On the flip side, they check in a very respectable ninth in defensive rating away from home. While Washington is known for its up-tempo offense, the fact is it sits middle of the pack in offensive rating at home (15th in the NBA). Not surprisingly, the Wiz are near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories but can the Bulls really take advantage? It's not as if Chicago has been performing well offensively in recent games as it ranks 24th in the Association in offensive rating over its last five contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-10-20 | Wolves +9.5 v. Raptors | 126-137 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The T’Wolves suddenly have some upside after making wholesale changes prior to the trade deadline last week. Over its last five games, Minnesota has quietly crept into the top-12 in the league in offense rating while also showing some improvement (relatively speaking), with eight teams sitting below them in the defensive rating rankings over that stretch. The Raptors are in the midst of a record-setting winning streak but they’ve narrowly escaped with two of their last three losses and now face a bit of a flat spot in a non-conference matchup before a rematch with the Nets (who they beat 119-118 on Saturday) coming up next. I look for Minnesota to find enough success offensively to keep within arm’s reach tonight. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
02-09-20 | Heat v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Portland at 9:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers most recent home game - a high-scoring win over the Spurs. I expect a different type of contest to play out on Sunday, however, as Portland hosts the injury-plagued Heat. Only the Pistons have played at a slower pace than the Heat over their last five games and I expect that trend to continue here as Miami continues to play without Jimmy Butler among others. Note that Miami ranks 27th in the league in pace rating on the road this season as well. Portland sits in a tie for 13th in pace rating over its last five games and finds itself playing its third game in four nights here on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a defensive slugfest by any means, I do expect this one to stay 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-08-20 | Mavs v. Hornets OVER 216.5 | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Dallas' one-point loss in Washington last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Mavs continue their road trip in Charlotte. As I noted in yesterday's analysis, the Mavs rank tops in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. Here, they draw another favorable matchup against a Hornets squad that ranks 27th in the league in defensive rating at home this season - only the Cavs, Hawks and Wizards rank worse. While the Hornets rank last in the league in pace rating here at home, I do think they'll make a concerted effort to push the pace on Saturday night with the Mavs in a back-to-back spot, and still playing without Luka Doncic. In Doncic's absence, Dallas continues to struggle defensively, sitting 22nd in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Let's try this again. We missed the mark with the Jazz in last Saturday's loss in Portland but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here as the spot sets up much better. Portland is coming off a 125-117 win over the Spurs last night (we won with the 'over') but will now be playing its third game in the last four nights, in three different cities - with two of those games being played in altitude (the other was a 127-99 loss in Denver on Tuesday - we won with the Nuggets in that game). Utah plays just its second game since last Saturday. While the Blazers continue to perform well offensively, Damian Lillard has cooled off following an incredible scoring run. After scoring at least 34 points in eight straight games, Lillard has put up just 47 over his last two contests. Note that the Jazz check in third in the league in defensive rating at home this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 13th in the league in offensive rating on the road compared to fourth in that category at home. Portland sits 25th in the NBA in defensive rating on the road. Utah enters having lost five games in a row and this is certainly the game for them to turn things around with a trip to Texas to face the Rockets and Mavs looming. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
02-07-20 | Mavs v. Wizards OVER 234 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Even with the Mavs injury issues, I'll back the 'over' in Washington on Friday night. The Mavs sit 27th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games - only the Cavs, Bulls and Wizards have been worse over that same stretch. Not surprisingly, that coincides with the injury to Luka Doncic. Despite losing Doncic, the Mavs still sit 12th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests and should be able to find success regardless whether Kristaps Porzingis suits up after suffering a broken nose last time out. Note that the Mavs rank tops in the league in offensive rating on the road this season and it's really not all that close. The Wizards are fifth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. Only the Cavs are worse than the Wiz in defensive rating at home, again opening the door for an undermanned but still effective Mavs offense here. Expect a track meet. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers OVER 231.5 | Top | 117-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'over' in this key Western Conference showdown on Thursday night. The Spurs were a virtual no-show against the Lakers last time out (we won with Los Angeles in that game) but couldn't really be blamed as they were in a tough back-to-back spot after taking the Clippers down to the wire the previous night. Of course, the Blazers also got blown out in their last game, dropping a lopsided decision in Denver (we won with the Nuggets). Here, I expect both teams to show up and show out, offensively at least. Note that the Spurs rank ninth in the league in offensive rating on the road this season. The downside is they rank 26th in defensive rating away from home, with only the Hornets, Cavs, Hawks and Wizards - four of the league's worst teams - ranking worse. It's a similar story for the Blazers at home. They're fourth in offensive rating here in the Pacific Northwest but 27th in defensive rating with only the Pistons, Wizards and Cavs sitting below them - again, three of the league's weakest defensive teams. The last time these two teams met back in November they smashed this same posted total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-06-20 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans bandwagon has cleared somewhat following back-to-back losses at Houston and at home against Milwaukee. Neither of those losses were unexpected although it would have been nice if they could have stepped up and stole one of them as a statement victory of sorts. Nevertheless, the Pelicans hit the road on Thursday for a very winnable game against the Bulls. While Chicago has gone 4-1 over its last five home games, note that three of those victories came against three of the league's worst teams in Washington, Cleveland and Minnesota. The other came against another losing team, San Antonio. Only two teams have been worse than the Bulls in terms of defensive rating over their last five games, the Cavs and Wizards. Not exactly good company. Meanwhile, the Pelicans check in sixth in defensive rating over that same stretch, despite a tough schedule. New Orleans also ranks an impressive second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests while the Bulls sit 23rd. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 216 | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. You have to think the Jazz, who have been idle since Saturday, will be looking to push the pace at every opportunity against a Nuggets squad playing its third game in four days (in three different cities). With that being said, I don't think we'll see Denver back down in this showdown between the Northwest Division's top two teams, noting that the Nuggets managed to score 127 points despite barely breaking a sweat against the previously red hot Trail Blazers last night (we won with Denver in that game). The last meeting between these two teams took place just last week with the Nuggets prevailing by a 106-100 score at home. Expect a higher-scoring affair this time around. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-05-20 | Hawks v. Wolves OVER 236.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I expect nothing less than a track meet between these 'defense-optional' teams on Wednesday night in Minnesota. The Hawks were already short-handed before getting involved in Tuesday's expansive four-team trade with the Rockets, Nuggets and T'Wolves. There's little doubt Minnesota will look to push the pace against Atlanta here as it looks to finally snap its long losing streak but I don't think we'll see the Hawks shy away from that at all. Note that Atlanta sits in the top half of the league in offensive rating over its last five games, despite three of those contests coming against the likes of Toronto, Boston and Dallas. The Raps and Celtics sit second and third respectively in terms of defensive rating over their last five games. Here, Atlanta should find the going much easier against a T'Wolves squad that ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive rating over that same stretch. The Hawks check in third in pace rating over their last five contests while the T'Wolves are top 10 in that category as well over the same time frame. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-05-20 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 216 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pacers continue to struggle defensively, as they sit 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. They let the Mavs get whatever they wanted offensively on Monday night (despite missing Luka Doncic), falling for a second straight game at home. That makes this a nightmarish matchup against a surging Raptors squad that ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating over their last five games while also sitting in the top half of the league in pace rating over that same stretch. With that being said, the Pacers are still a quality basketball team and it's only a matter of time before Victor Oladipo settles in and starts knocking down his shots after returning a couple of games back. Here, I do think they'll get baited into an up-tempo affair. It's worth noting that these two teams combined to score 235 points in their most recent meeting back on December 23rd. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-05-20 | Suns -3 v. Pistons | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are injury-ravaged and likely looking at some changes before Thursday's trade deadline. With that being said, I think the Suns have a lot more upside and should have little trouble disposing of the reeling Pistons at Little Caesar's Arena on Wednesday night. Yes, Phoenix has lost three games in a row but did anyone really expect any wins out of a stretch that saw it face Oklahoma City at home (it lost by only four points) and Milwaukee and Brooklyn (noting the Nets have been playing much better lately) on the road? Here, the Suns have a solid opportunity to at least salvage something on their current road trip as they face the undermanned Pistons. Detroit has just one win in its last seven games and it came by way of overtime in an early start against a weary Nuggets squad on Super Bowl Sunday. Phoenix checks in ranking sixth in the NBA in pace rating over its last five games while the Pistons sit 27th over that same stretch. I look for the Suns to run Detroit out of the gym here. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
02-04-20 | Spurs v. Lakers -12 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs gave the Clippers all they could handle last night here at Staples Center but really what else could we have expected given how inconsistent the Clips have been lately? Here, I look for a highly-motivated performance from the Lakers, who struggled in their first game following the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant last week but then responded with a blowout win in Sacramento the very next night. While the Spurs have been close in each of their last two road tilts, they remain just 8-15 away from home this season. LaMarcus Aldridge and Demar Derozan accounted for over half of their 105 points last night. Look for the Lakers to use their depth to ultimately pull away from San Antonio on Tuesday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-04-20 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the surging Trail Blazers on Tuesday night. Portland checks in having won four straight games after dropping 11 of its previous 16 contests. Of course, the Blazers have been riding the extremely hot hand of Damian Lillard during their current streak. Portland actually ranks number one in the league in offensive rating over its last five contests. I'm just not sure it's sustainable, in fact, I know it's note. As good as they've been offensively, the Blazers check in 24th in the Association in defensive rating over that same five-game stretch. Denver suffered an overtime loss in a matinee affair in Detroit on Sunday, snapping a mini two-game winning streak. The Nuggets are still a solid 11-6 since the start of January. They've gone 17-4 in their last 21 games here in the high altitude of Denver. The last time these two teams squared off in December the Nuggets rolled to a 114-99 victory. Lillard will get his, but I look for Denver to prevail. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
02-03-20 | Mavs v. Pacers -4.5 | 112-103 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Monday. It's been a bit of a struggle for the Mavs lately as they've gone just 3-4 over their last seven games since reeling off four straight wins from January 11th to 17th. They're coming off a blowout win on Saturday night but that came at home against the lowly Hawks. The Pacers were stunned by the Knicks at home on Saturday night so will certainly be highly-motivated to bounce back here. Perhaps they were caught flat-footed following a 115-106 overtime win over the Bulls in Victor Oladipo's long-awaited return to the lineup in their previous game. Whatever the case, I expect to see a much sharper performance from them here. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
02-01-20 | Jazz -5 v. Blazers | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. This has not been a good week for the Jazz as they have dropped three games in a row, starting with a loss as a double-digit favorite at home against a Rockets team that was without Harden and Westbrook. Since then, we've seen Utah drop back-to-back games on the road but I look for it to bounce back here on Saturday as it faces what has to be an emotionally-drained Blazers squad coming off last night's victory over the Lakers in Los Angeles - the Lakers first game following the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant. Portland ranks a miserable 28th in defensive rating playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the Jazz have been generally solid on the road, where they rank top-11 in both offensive and defensive rating. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
02-01-20 | Wolves v. Clippers -9.5 | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 3:35 pm et on Saturday. Clippers head coach Doc Rivers was disgusted with his team's effort in their most recent game - a blowout home loss to the Kings. I fully expect a return to form from Los Angeles as it hosts the lowly Timberwolves here. Minnesota has lost 10 games in a row and this doesn't appear to be a favorable spot to turn things around. Note that the T'Wolves check in 21st in the league in offensive rating and 26th in defensive rating over their last five games. While the Clippers certainly haven't been at their best lately, they do still hold down the 10th spot in defensive rating over their last five contests. This wouldn't ordinarily be a circled game for the Clips but because of their awful performance last time out, I expect them to show up and show out at Staples Center. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
01-31-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Portland at 10:35 pm et on Friday. It will undoubtedly be an emotional night for the entire Lakers organization on Friday as they play their first game since the passing of Kobe Bryant. I'm anticipating a strong performance from Los Angeles as it hosts the surging Trail Blazers. While Portland has won three of its last four games overall, keep in mind all four of those contests were played at home. The Blazers check in ranking 25th in the league in defensive rating away from home. By contrast, the Lakers are second in that category here at home. L.A. also checks in top-10 in offensive rating at Staples Center. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
01-30-20 | Jazz +1.5 v. Nuggets | 100-106 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with our free pick on the Jazz last night in San Antonio but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here. Utah still ranks fourth in the league in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating over its last five contests. It also checks in just outside the top-10 in 11th place in pace rating over that stretch. The Nuggets have been lagging offensively, ranking 21st in offensive rating and 23rd in pace rating over their last five contests. They're always going to find themselves near the top in most defensive categories, I'm just not sure it will be enough against a highly-motivated Jazz squad here. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
01-30-20 | Warriors v. Celtics -13.5 | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Golden State at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Celtics in a game that has blowout potential on Thursday night. Golden State continues to struggle, ranking 28th in the league in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating over its last five games. While the Warriors do rank top-10 in pace rating over that stretch that could be to their detriment here. That's because the Celtics are rolling again, ranking sixth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating over their last five contests. While they're just middling in terms of pace rating over that stretch, I'm not all that concerned as they should get plenty of transition opportunities against the Warriors. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
01-30-20 | Raptors -10 v. Cavs | 115-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This game certainly has letdown potential for Toronto coming off back-to-back emotional wins over the Spurs and Hawks following the tragic passing of Kobe Bryant but I believe the Raptors will be up to the challenge in Cleveland on Thursday night. The Cavs continue to struggle. They had a glimmer of hope earlier this week as they got past the reeling Pistons in Detroit but couldn't follow it up as they were easily disposed of by the Pelicans the next night. The Raptors enter this contest in fine form, ranking ninth in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating over their last five games. The lowly Cavs on the other hand sit 24th in both of those categories. Despite the strong showing in the Motor City earlier this week, Cleveland still sits just 22nd in the league in pace rating over its last five contests - a stark contrast to the Raptors seventh ranking in that department. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
01-29-20 | Pistons +6 v. Nets | 115-125 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Pistons in this same matchup last Saturday as they covered the number in regulation time but ultimately fell by double-digits in overtime. There's really not much separating these two teams at all right now and I'll gladly take all the points I can get with the Pistons in a big bounce-back spot on Wednesday night. Motivation will be especially high for Detroit coming off an embarrassing loss at home against the lowly Cavs on Monday. Meanwhile, Brooklyn went right back in the tank following Saturday's win in the Motor City, falling to the Knicks. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
01-28-20 | Wizards v. Bucks -16 | 131-151 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play in this game and as a result the line has dropped considerably. The 9* play on the Bucks stands at the current number. We're dealing with a steep pointspread with the Bucks here but just as we did a couple of weeks ago when they hosted the Knicks, we won't hesitate to go back to the well with Milwaukee in another smash spot on Wednesday night. The line would likely be even higher were it not for the fact that Milwaukee is returning home following last Friday's tilt in Paris. The Wizards are coming off an embarrassing beatdown at the hands of the lowly Atlanta Hawks on Sunday. Only the Blazers have been worse in terms of defensive rating over their last five games. While Washington does rank 12th in offensive rating over that same stretch, it is going to have a tough time keeping pace with Milwaukee in this one. Note that the Bucks sit atop the Association in defensive rating over their last five contests. They also hold top spot in pace rating over that time frame. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Bucks and I expect a lopsided result. Take Milwaukee (9*). | |||||||
01-28-20 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 114-130 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with an extremely high total here when you consider the Raptors are locked in defensively right now, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Hawks are fresh off an emotional, predictably high-scoring win at home against the Wizards on Sunday but should find the going much tougher as they step up in class here on Tuesday night in Toronto. Despite that offensive explosion on Sunday, the Hawks still sit just 15th in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-27-20 | Cavs v. Pistons -6.5 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Monday. This is the perfect storm to back the Pistons as they host the lowly Cavs on Monday night. Detroit has won two of three meetings with Cleveland this season, splitting the most recent two affairs with both of those games going down to the wire. I expect more of a lopsided contest here as the Pistons aim to bounce back from consecutive discouraging losses against the Grizzlies and Nets - both at home - on Friday and Saturday. Note that despite their recent struggles in the w/l column, Detroit actually checks in top 10 in the league in offensive rating and top nine in defensive rating over its last five contests. By contrast, Cleveland sits 24th and 25th respectively in those two categories. Most will want no part of laying points with the Pistons here off Saturday's frustrating overtime loss and non-cover against the Nets. I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for Detroit laying a very reasonable number against one of the league's worst teams. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
01-26-20 | Celtics v. Pelicans +1.5 | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Boston at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Pelicans have gone 0-2 since Zion Williamson made his debut earlier this week but I believe they'll have a good shot at getting back in the win column here against the streaking Celtics. Boston has won three games in a row but prior to that it had dropped six of its last eight contests. The Pelicans will certainly have revenge on their minds after suffering a 35-point beatdown at the hands of the Celtics back on January 11th. Note that prior to losing its last two games, New Orleans had won five of its last seven games. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
01-25-20 | Nets v. Pistons +2 | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel that the wrong team is favored in this matchup as the Pistons have been playing some pretty good basketball lately and should be up for the challenge against Kyrie Irving and the Nets on Saturday. Detroit ranks an impressive sixth in both offensive and defensive rating over its last five games while Brooklyn checks in 28th and 23rd in those two categories respectively over the same stretch. While the Nets have undoubtedly faced a tougher schedule than the Pistons over their last five contests and Irving has been injured, the fact is, this has been a disappointing campaign for 18-25 Brooklyn. Coming off a 125-112 loss at home against the Grizzlies, motivation should be high for the Pistons here. They beat the Nets as a four-point underdog here at home back on November 2nd. Brooklyn will be desperate to snap a five-game skid but it hasn't won on the road since way back on December 17th in New Orleans. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
01-24-20 | Kings v. Bulls UNDER 219 | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Kings carry a reputation as being an up-tempo offensive team but that simply hasn't been the case, certainly of late. Sacramento ranks 19th in the league in pace rating over its last five games and 20th in offensive rating. Chicago has been even worse, sitting 23rd in offensive rating over that same stretch. It is worth noting that the Kings rank dead last in the league in defensive rating over their last five contests but that's certainly been baked into this total, and I'm just not sure Chicago is capable of taking advantage tonight. For their part, the Bulls sit in the top nine in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-22-20 | Grizzlies +7 v. Celtics | 95-119 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are coming off an epic beatdown of the Lakers on Monday night but I believe that only serves to leave them overvalued as they host the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Memphis checks in ranking sixth in offensive rating, 14th in defensive rating and seventh in pace rating over its last five games. While the Celtics do rank fourth in offensive rating over that same stretch, they're a miserable 24th in defensive rating and a middling 12th in pace rating. I simply feel the Grizzlies will be able to keep up with the C's all night long on Wednesday. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -6.5 | 112-107 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 5:05 pm et on Monday. We won with the Thunder on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them as they hit the road to face the Rockets on Monday afternoon in Houston. Note that the Thunder rank a miserable 26th in defensive rating over their last five games and will be hard-pressed to slow a Rockets offense that ranks third in the league in pace rating over their last five contests. Having dropped four games over that stretch, Houston will undoubtedly be highly-motivated to get back on track here and won't take the upstart Thunder lightly. I had this pointspread pegged a couple of points steeper, so I'll gladly back Houston at a discount here. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
01-18-20 | Blazers v. Thunder -4.5 | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Thunder on Saturday night as they look to bounce back following consecutive losses here at home. Portland is in a tough scheduling spot here, playing for the third time in four nights on the road, splitting the previous two including an upset win in Houston and a tough battle in Dallas last night. Despite dropping their last two games, the Thunder still rank ninth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. By contrast, the Blazers sit 19th in that category over the same stretch. While Oklahoma City has struggled defensively, it still ranks two spots ahead of Portland in terms of defensive rating over its last five contests. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
01-17-20 | Cavs v. Grizzlies -8 | 109-113 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with the upstart Grizzlies on Friday night as they host the lowly Cavs. Cleveland did open its current road trip with consecutive wins in Detroit and Denver but it's been all downhill from there as it checks in off back-to-back blowout losses against the Lakers and Clippers in Los Angeles. Memphis ranks 4th and 9th in offensive and defensive rating respectively over its last five games, not to mention 6th in pace rating. Meanwhile, the Cavs have settled back into their woeful ways, sitting 21st in offensive rating, 29th in defensive rating and 25th in pace rating over that same time frame. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-16-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans +5 | 132-138 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Utah at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jazz are red hot right now, winners of 10 games in a row. I do expect them to face a stiff challenge in New Orleans on Thursday night, however. While the Jazz are on top of the league rankings in offensive rating over their last 10 games, the Pelicans also find themselves inside the top 10 in that category. While New Orleans sits inside the top 10 in pace rating as well, Utah is in 21st over its last five contests. I simply like the way the Pelicans are playing right now and certainly feel they'll be up for this showdown at home. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
01-15-20 | Magic v. Lakers UNDER 211.5 | 119-118 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Staples Center on Wednesday night, noting that these two teams combined to score just 183 total points in their last meeting back in December. The Lakers are tops in the league in defensive rating over their last five games while the Magic aren't far behind sitting in third spot. On the flip side, the Lakers rank an impressive second in offensive rating over that same stretch but keep in mind, three of their last five contests came against three of the league's worst defensive teams in the Pistons, Wizards and Cavaliers. The Magic check in 17th in offensive rating over their last five games. Neither team has been really pushing the pace lately with the Lakers sitting 14th and the Magic 19th over their last five. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-15-20 | Blazers v. Rockets -7.5 | 117-107 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Portland at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets are banged up and playing the second of back-to-back nights so it's understandable that they're laying a relatively short number against the Blazers on Wednesday. I believe the line will prove too short. Note that Houston ranks just outside the top 10 in offensive rating over its last five games, sitting in 11th. The Rockets somewhat surprisingly (to some) find themselves in 10th in defensive rating over that same stretch and an even more impressive third in pace rating. Meanwhile, the Blazers have struggled in all three of those departments, ranking 19th, 24th and 18th respectively over that same time frame. There's no shame in the Rockets loss against a steadily improving Grizzlies squad on the road last night. Expect a solid bounce-back performance here. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
01-14-20 | Knicks v. Bucks -16.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're dealing with an extremely high pointspread here in favor of the Bucks but it's warranted in my opinion. New York continues to struggle and checks in last in the league in defensive rating over its last five contests, and the scary thing is, it's not really all that close. The Knicks won't have a hope of slowing down a Bucks squad that sits second in the NBA in pace rating over their last five contests. New York hasn't shied away from playing an up-tempo style lately and I think that backfires here as the Bucks should be able to name their score and will be happy to be back home following a western road trip. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
01-13-20 | Magic v. Kings -1.5 | 114-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Orlando at 10:05 pm et on Monday. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Kings coming off what looked on paper like a blowout loss to the Bucks at home. That game was closer than the final score indicated and we should see a highly-motivated Sacramento squad in rebound mode here on Monday. The Magic battled hard but ultimately fell short in Phoenix on Friday (we won with the Suns in that game). Orlando has now dropped five of its last six games on the road and could get caught looking ahead to a trip to Los Angeles for back-to-back games against the Lakers and Clippers beginning on Wednesday night. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-12-20 | Hawks +7.5 v. Nets | 86-108 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. The Nets snapped a seven-game losing streak with a win over the Heat on Friday night but that only serves to leave them overvalued as they host the lowly Hawks on Sunday. There really hasn't been much separating these two teams lately. The Nets actually rank a miserable 29th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. There's reason to believe they could have a tough time keeping up with Atlanta, which ranks top 10 in pace rating over that same time frame. Brooklyn sits in the bottom half of the league in that department over its last five contests. With only eight wins on the season it's been mostly doom and gloom for the Hawks but they have to feel like this is a rare winnable game away from home. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
01-11-20 | 76ers v. Mavs -2 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. The Mavs are coming off another tough loss last night, this one coming at the hands of the Lakers. I do expect Dallas to bounce back on Saturday, however, as it hosts Philadelphia. Despite struggling to find the win column, the Mavs still rank sixth in the NBA in offensive rating over their last five games. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired, ranking a miserable 27th over that stretch, Philadelphia hasn't been much better, also finding itself in the bottom-10 over that time frame. Both teams are missing key cogs right now with Joel Embiid sidelined for the 76ers and Kristaps Porzingis out for Dallas. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
01-10-20 | Magic v. Suns -3 | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Orlando at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We're getting a terrific number with the Suns here considering they were a 6.5-point favorite against the Kings last time out (we won with Sacramento in that game). The Magic have won three of their last four games but all four of those were played at home. They own five road wins this season but those have come against the Cavs (twice), Pelicans and Wizards (twice). This is the start of a long six-game road trip for Orlando. Playing on two days' rest and having not traveled since New Year's Day, I like this spot for the Suns. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
01-09-20 | Blazers v. Wolves +2 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Portland at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are fresh off a come-from-behind win over the defending champion Raptors two nights ago but Toronto isn't the same team right now as it deals with a number of key injuries. Keep in mind, Portland has won just twice in its last eight games with the other victory coming against the 12-25 Wizards. Minnesota has been dealing with its share of injuries as well but does check in having gone 4-3 over its last seven games, including a 2-1 mark here at home. The T'Wolves battled hard but fell by a 119-112 score in Memphis two nights ago but are well-positioned to rebound in this spot. Minnesota has a number of key advantages in this matchup as it ranks tied for third in the league in pace, sixth in three-pointers made per game and seventh in rebounds per game. Portland finds itself outside the top 10 in all of those categories. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | 107-106 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Denver at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavericks are still trying to find some consistency and round back into form with Luka Doncic back in the lineup and they took a step in the right direction with a 118-110 win over Chicago last time out. While they've still lost three of their last five games, two of those losses came against the Lakers and the red hot Thunder on the road and the other by way of overtime in a true flat spot at home against the Hornets. I don't think there's any question they'll be up for this matchup with the Nuggets. Note that Denver ranks dead last in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. The Nuggets have tried to make up for it at the offensive end of the floor, where they rank second in offensive rating over that same stretch but the Mavs have been rising in that department as well, ranking ninth over their last five contests. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
01-07-20 | Kings +6.5 v. Suns | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Kings as they travel to face the Suns on Tuesday night. We suffered what could only be considered a bad beat fading the Suns on this floor last week against the Knicks but I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that Phoenix has gone just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite. Kings are off a 2-2 homestand and need to build here before returning home for tough matchups with Milwaukee, Orlando and Dallas. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-03-20 | Knicks +6.5 v. Suns | 112-120 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are doing a couple of things really well right now, they're playing tough defense (fifth in the league in defensive rating last five games) and they're pushing the pace at every opportunity (sixth in pace rating L5). That sets them up well as they head to Phoenix to take on the struggling Suns. New York has actually split its last four matchups here in the desert. It's not as if Phoenix holds any sort of home court advantage, having won just seven times in 16 tries on this floor this season. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-02-20 | Hornets v. Cavs -2 | 109-106 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are really struggling right now and after cashing a fade of them two nights ago, I won't hesitate to go back to the well against them on Thursday. Charlotte checks in a miserable 27th in the league in both offensive and defensive rating over its last five games, not to mention the fact that it sits dead last in pace rating over that same stretch. Meanwhile, the Cavs have shown some signs of life, sitting around the middle of the pack in defensive rating and an impressive top-four (tied with the Bucks) in pace rating over their last five contests. Offensively, they're not going to blow the doors off of anyone but I do see this as a favorable matchup on their home floor. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
01-01-20 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 226.5 | 107-117 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' at Staples Center on Wednesday night as both the Suns and Lakers seek their third straight victories. Note that Phoenix checks in sixth in offensive rating over its last five games. The Lakers on the other hand, do sit in the top half of the league in that category (14th) over the same stretch. In terms of defensive rating, the Suns rank a miserable 28th over their last five contests while the Lakers haven't been much better, sitting 22nd. Both teams have been middle of the pack in terms of pushing the pace lately, but that doesn't concern me all that much as I think both can be drawn into an up-and-down affair here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-31-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets OVER 220 | Top | 104-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Houston at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has the makings of a track meet as the Nuggets visit the Rockets on New Year's Eve. Denver ranks tops in the league in offensive rating over its last five games while Houston not surprisingly has impressed in that regard as well, sitting in seventh. Meanwhile, the Rockets are just 20th in defensive rating while the Nuggets have fallen off in that department as well, sitting 19th over the same time frame. We'll see a contrast in styles here with the Rockets always looking to push the pace, and currently ranking ninth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Nuggets sit 25th. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-31-19 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hornets | 109-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Charlotte at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a blowout waiting to happen as the Celtics roll into Charlotte to face the struggling Hornets. Boston ranks fourth in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating over its last five games while Charlotte checks in 25th in both categories over the same stretch. While the Celtics haven't been pushing the pace all that much, sitting 20th in pace rating over their last five, the Hornets pull up the league's rear in that category over the same time frame. Unless the C's absolutely overlook the Hornets on New Year's Eve, this should be a rout. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
12-25-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. 76ers | 109-121 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Philadelphia at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday. Full writeups will return on Thursday. The Bucks check in top-four in offensive rating and top-two in defensive rating over their last five games. Solid spot to back the road favorite here. Best of luck today. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-23-19 | Bulls +4.5 v. Magic | 95-103 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Magic just aren't very good right now, losers of six of their last seven games overall, and now they find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot, playing their first game back at home following a 1-3 road trip out west. Meanwhile, the Bulls have won back-to-back games and sport a 4-2 mark over their last six games. They'll look to carry some positive momentum into the short holiday break before returning home to host the Hawks on the 28th of the month. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
12-22-19 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | 128-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the Nuggets in the last meeting between these two teams but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Denver at a more favorable line this time around. The Lakers have cooled off considerably and are coming off back-to-back losses in Indiana and Milwaukee. Note that Denver checks in second in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Lakers dropped to 20th in the NBA in that department over the same stretch. Denver is also top-10 in defensive rating over that time frame. The Lakers may bounce back with a win here, but I'm not convinced they do it by margin. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
12-22-19 | Hornets v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 93-119 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Boston at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this total sets up on Sunday evening. The Hornets are coming off another high-scoring affair last night against the Jazz, due in large part to a track meet of a first half before things settled down later in the game. Note that the Hornets surprisingly check in ranked fifth in the league in defensive rating over their last five games. The Celtics are top-10 in the league in that department over that same stretch, sitting in ninth. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks a miserable 29th in offensive rating over its last five games - despite that big scoring night on Saturday. Serving our purposes well, the Celtics are 25th in pace rating while the Hornets are dead last in the league in the same category over their last five contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-21-19 | Bucks v. Knicks OVER 227 | 123-102 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the chances of this one developing into a track meet as the Bucks travel to Manhattan to face the Knicks. Of course, New York got its doors blown off in last night's rout at the hands of the Heat in Miami. Still, the Knicks check in tops in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. Who sits right behind them? The Bucks of course. On the flip side, we've seen Milwaukee lag a bit defensively of late, dropping from a perennial top three spot in defensive rating to 14th over its last five contests. The Knicks are defensive doormats, ranking 28th in defensive rating over their last five games. I'm confident we'll see the Bucks push the pace in this one. They're fifth in the league in pace rating over their last five games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-21-19 | Jazz v. Hornets UNDER 210 | 114-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Charlotte at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. This is a relatively low posted total but it's warranted in my opinion. Charlotte checks in sporting the league's second worst (relatively speaking) pace rating over its last five games. At the same time, it ranks an impressive fifth in the NBA in defensive rating over that stretch. Utah doesn't figure to break through as it sits in the bottom half in offensive rating over its last five contests. Like the Hornets, the Jazz have also been playing better defensive ball of late, checking in top 10 in defensive rating over that same time frame. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-20-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Blazers | 103-118 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a flyer on the Magic on Friday night as they get out of the dreaded back-to-back set in the high altitude of Salt Lake City and Denver and head to Portland to challenge the Trail Blazers. Orlando has dropped five of its last six games overall so motivation will certainly be high for this one. While the Magic haven't had much success in this series, it hasn't been for lack of trying as four of the Blazers last five wins over Orlando have come by single-digit margins. These two teams haven't faced one another in over a year. Portland checks in off back-to-back wins but let's not get too excited about that as the first victory came by a single point in Phoenix and the second came at home against the injury-plagued and disinterested Warriors. The Blazers have won more than two games in a row just once this season and they failed to cover the spread in the final win during that streak. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs UNDER 219 | 105-118 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Spurs continue to play up-tempo but their offense is lagging at the moment as they check in a dismal 29th in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. The Nets haven't been much better, sitting 25th in that department over the same stretch. On the flip side, the Brooklyn defense has been sneaky-good lately as it rates third in the NBA in defensive rating over its last five contests. That puts it in excellent position to contain the Spurs aggressive offense in this matchup. Note that San Antonio has also turned things around defensively, ranking sixth in the league in defensive rating over its last five games. It should be able to handle a Brooklyn squad that is missing Kyrie Irving and ranks smack in the middle of the Association in pace rating over its last five games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-19-19 | Lakers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Bucks, much like the fade of the Mavs set up last night. Of course, earlier this week we saw the Luka Doncic-less Mavs stun the Bucks here in Milwaukee. They were in for a letdown against the Celtics last night as a result, and ultimately lost by six points. Now the Bucks are back to rebound off that ugly loss to the Mavs and they'll have no shortage of motivation against Lebron and the Lakers on Thursday night. I really do think the Bucks will be able to run the Lakers out of the gym in this one. Milwaukee remains number one in the league in offensive rating over its last five games. Meanwhile, the Lakers have tailed off a bit in that department, ranking 11th. The key here is the pace the Bucks play at, ranking fifth in the league in pace rating over their last five contests while the Lakers sit 19th over that same time frame. Look for Milwaukee to make a statement here. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-19-19 | Jazz v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We're getting a relatively low total to work with here (at least by Hawks standards) largely due to Atlanta's recent struggles offensively. However, the pace is still absolutely there as the Hawks check in fourth in the league in pace rating over their last five games, and here they catch a favorable matchup against a Jazz squad that isn't playing at the same level of defensive intensity as it was earlier this season. Note that Utah currently sits in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating over its last five contests. On the flip side, the Jazz's offense has come on lately, ranking seventh in the league in offensive rating over that same stretch and they should certainly be able to keep it rolling against one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-18-19 | Celtics -1.5 v. Mavs | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. This is a no-brainer fading the Luca Doncic-less Mavs off their big win over the Bucks in Milwaukee on Monday night. The Celtics check in playing excellent basketball, ranking third in offensive rating over their last five games while also sitting in the top half of the league in defensive rating. The Mavs have been as good as it gets offensively over that same stretch but there's no question they're going to miss Doncic. I'm sure the Celtics learned a thing or two watching the Bucks get caught flat-footed against the Mavs on Monday. Look for Boston to answer the bell on Wednesday night. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
12-18-19 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 231.5 | 107-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see a track meet between these two 'defense optional' opponents on Wednesday night. The T'Wolves check in dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over their last five games and it's not really all that close. The Pelicans aren't much better in that regard, sitting 25th in the league in that category over the same stretch. While New Orleans continues to lag offensively in the absence of Zion Williamson, the T'Wolves have been lighting it up, sitting top-five in the league in offensive rating over their last five contests. Both teams check in top-11 in the NBA in pace rating over that same time frame. This is a high posted total but it's warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-18-19 | Hornets v. Cavs UNDER 213.5 | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up well as a relatively low-scoring affair by today's NBA standards. The Hornets are playing the second of back-to-back nights after pulling away for a win over the Kings at home last night. Even with that 110-point effort they still sit just 23rd in the league in offensive rating over their last five games. I don't really consider them a good defensive team by any means but the numbers support it lately as they're top-eight in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. Neither of these teams have been pushing the pace, both checking in bottom-seven in the league in pace rating over their last five contests. The Cavs are 17th in offensive rating over that time frame but remain one of the league's weakest offensive squads overall. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-17-19 | Nets -2 v. Pelicans | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Pelicans continue to struggle defensively, ranking 28th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games and I don't believe this is the matchup that will fix their problems. New Orleans has been pushing the tempo, sitting top-10 in the league in pace rating over its last five contests but I'm not sure that will serve it particularly well in this matchup with the Nets starting to come together defensively, ranking an impressive seventh in the league in defensive rating over that same period. Note that the Nets sit just five spots back of the Pelicans in terms of pace rating over their last five, at the edge of the league's top half. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
12-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets UNDER 208 | 102-110 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Charlotte at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but I believe the number is warranted. Keep in mind, both the Kings and Hornets check in bottom-four in the league in pace rating over their last five games. That's not to mention the fact that Charlotte sits 24th in offensive rating over that same stretch. The Kings come in playing well, winners of four of their last five, but the Hornets have held their own defensively of late, ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating over their last five contests and should keep Sacramento in check relatively speaking. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-16-19 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 228 | 111-110 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I love the way this one sets up as a track meet in the desert on Monday night. The Blazers are coming off three straight games against relatively slow-paced opponents that find themselves in the bottom-seven of the league in pace rating over their last five games. Here, they'll go up against a Suns squad that ranks second in pace rating over that same stretch. Note that while the Blazers sit a disappointing 26th in the league in defensive rating over their last five games, they sit in the top half of the league in offensive rating over that time frame. Look for a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair between these two Western Conference foes. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-14-19 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | 122-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' on Saturday night as the Heat look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Lakers. Keep in mind, Miami has been playing an awful lot of basketball lately, with three of its last six games needing overtime to decide. Note that the Heat and the Mavs sit bottom nine in pace rating over their last five games, with Miami playing particularly slow, ranking 28th in the league. Both teams have been performing well offensively with Dallas actually leading the league in offensive rating over its last five contests but I'm not sure that it will draw the Heat into a real high-scoring affair here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-13-19 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 210.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these offenses got loose last time out and I expect to see some progression from those performances here as the Warriors and Jazz do battle in Utah. Keep in mind, the last five meetings in this series have all eclipsed the total we're dealing with here. There's little reason to believe the Warriors will be able to do anything to slow down a Jazz offense that averages close to 110 points per game at home. While Utah has held its own defensively this season it is still allowing north of 105 ppg on its home floor. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-12-19 | Cavs v. Spurs -11 | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Cleveland at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Cavs last night but I won't hesitate to fade them as they hit the road to face the Spurs on Thursday. San Antonio has been a general disappointment this season but finds itself in an absolutely gorgeous spot against the lowly Cavs playing on no rest. The Spurs have been playing better lately, winners of three of their last four games, including a 2-0 mark on their current homestand. Playing their third straight at the AT&T Center, they're in excellent shape to keep their good fortune on Thursday night. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-11-19 | Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 234 | 112-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Milwaukee at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. I fully expect to see a track meet between these two teams on Wednesday night. The Pelicans are coming off a lower-scoring game than expected against the Pistons Monday. I don't think they have any hope of slowing down the high-octane Bucks offense here. As much as they don't want to trade baskets with Milwaukee, they're going to have to if they want to keep this one even remotely competitive. Note that the last three times these two teams have met they've combined to score at least 238 points. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-11-19 | Lakers v. Magic +7.5 | 96-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I don't like this spot at all for the road weary Lakers. They of course swept a three-game trip through Denver, Utah and Portland last week before returning home to blow the doors off the T'Wolves on Sunday. Now they have to head way east to face the Magic, who are no pushovers, winners of four of their last five games. The Lakers obviously own the far better straight-up record this season but the Magic have a very similar ATS mark. Look for a tightly-contested affair. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
12-11-19 | Rockets v. Cavs +11.5 | Top | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets have failed to cover the double-digit spread in each of their last two games, most recently losing outright against the Kings, at home no less. Here, I believe they're once again overvalued, noting that they've lost two of their last three games here in Cleveland and check in just 11-12 ATS on the season. The Cavs are reeling right now but that's to be expected. Let's face it, they're not going to win many games this season. After getting blown out on the road against Philadelphia and Boston I do think they'll benefit from returning home, and from facing a weak defensive team in the Rockets. Houston is simply laying too many points in this flat spot in its schedule. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
12-09-19 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:05 pm et on Monday. This is a track meet waiting to happen as the Pistons travel to face the Pelicans on Monday night. Detroit checks in sporting the league's third best offensive rating over its last five games. That spells trouble for a New Orleans squad that sits 27th in the league in defensive rating over that same stretch. A positive for the Pelicans, however, is the fact that they continue to push the tempo, ranking top eight in pace rating over their last five contests. The Pistons are virtually in the middle of the pack in defensive rating over that stretch, sitting 16th in the Association. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-06-19 | Lakers v. Blazers +4 | Top | 136-113 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. At the surface, this may have appeared to be one of the more obvious wins on the Lakers current road trip but now that they've gotten off to a 2-0 start with impressive wins in Denver and Salt Lake City, I believe this is a tricky spot for Lebron James and co. The Blazers are still a losing team on the season but they've been playing better basketball lately, checking in fifth in the league in offensive rating and top 10 in pace rating over their last five games. Their defensive play leaves something to be desired but the Lakers are certainly in a tough spot here, playing for the third time in four nights off back-to-back games in altitude. I'lll grab all the points I can get with the Blazers here. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. No surprise at all that we're dealing with a sky-high total between the high-flying, defense optional Rockets and the defending champion Raptors on Thursday night. I simply feel that we'll see the Raptors do a pretty good job of locking down the Houston offense, while I'm not certain that Toronto has the offensive ability to really expose the Rockets defensive inefficiencies, at least not given its current form. The Raps are coming off an extremely rare home loss against the Heat on Tuesday so you can be sure they'll be jacked up for this one. Expect a tighter affair than the total would seem to indicate. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-04-19 | Lakers v. Jazz OVER 209 | 121-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Utah at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a predictably low-scoring game involving the Lakers last night as they came up with a big 105-96 road win in Denver. Here, I look for the offense to flow a little more freely as Los Angeles continues its road trip in Utah. The Jazz have been involved in their fair share of high-scoring games lately with the 'over' going 5-2 over their last seven contests. They should be in a foul mood coming off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and 76ers on the road and catch a favorable spot with the Lakers playing on no rest in altitude no less. The Lakers are shooting just shy of 49% from the field on the road this season and should find continued success at the offensive end of the floor in this one. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-04-19 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 229.5 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. We're in for a track meet in Dallas on Wednesday night as the Mavs return home on no rest to host the T'Wolves. Dallas barely broke a sweat in rolling to a 118-97 win over the Pelicans last night but should face a stiffer challenge here. Minnesota comes in highly-motivated following a 115-107 home loss to the lowly Grizzlies. Keep in mind, the T'Wolves have actually been a better team on the road this season, where they've gone 7-2 straight-up. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-03-19 | Lakers v. Nuggets -2 | 105-96 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers may own the better overall record and get a lot more press than the Nuggets, but I believe the jury is still out as to whether they're actually the better team. Denver always owns a solid home court advantage and this season has been no different as it checks in with an 8-2 mark. The Lakers are in bounce-back mode off a 14-point loss at home to the Mavericks on Sunday. I'm just not sure this is an ideal bounce-back spot - in fact, I know it's not. The home team has taken eight of the last nine meetings in this series with Denver taking the most recent meeting in Los Angeles last March. Take Denver (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |