Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -157 | 103-90 | Loss | -157 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not going to bother messing with the points in this one as we're being offered a reasonable enough price to back the Celtics on the moneyline. This series has appeared bound to go the distance since the opening tipoff and I've seen nothing to change my opinion on that, even with the Warriors winning the last two games in convincing fashion. Boston is back home for Game 6 on Thursday, where it has gone a perfect 3-0 following a loss in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see it hold serve with a big bounce-back effort here. Keep in mind, the Celtics couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5 (31-of-75 shooting) yet still lost by 'only' 10 points. Golden State is just 3-5 when playing on the road off a win in these playoffs and I look for it to fall short again here. Take Boston moneyline (8*). | |||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Wednesday but it wasn't nearly as straightforward as it should have been with the fourth quarter totalling just 34 points. I expect to see some carry-over from that low-scoring quarter of basketball in Game 4 on Friday night. Credit the Celtics for doing a great job of keeping the explosive Warriors offense in check so far in this series. They've held Golden State to 88, 86 and 78 field goal attempts through the first three games. They've also limited the Warriors to fewer than 40 made field goals in all three contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Boston allowed an opponent to make good on 40+ field goals. On the flip side, note that Golden State has held eight straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Boston did knock down 43 field goals in Game 3 on Wednesday but we've seen positive responses from the Warriors defense in similar situations lately. The last three times they've allowed 40+ made field goals, the Warriors have held opponents to 34, 37 and 30 made field goals in their next game, yielding just 98 points per game in those three contests. The 'under' is 68-48 with Golden State coming off a loss over the last three seasons while the 'under' has gone 32-18 with Boston checking in as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case at the time of writing. We'll continue to go against the adjustments made to the total in this series and call for a lower-scoring contest than expected on Friday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). | |||||||
06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 212.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series and the 'under' in Game 2. Both results were of the 'rocking chair' variety. Here, we'll continue to follow the zig-zag pattern for another game and back the 'over' as the scene shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Wednesday. The Warriors have now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of the first two games of this series but still managed to score 108 and 107 points in those contests. Note that they haven't been held to less than 40 field goals in three consecutive games since March. After Golden State got off 88 and 86 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2 I could certainly see the pace ticking up a bit here in Beantown, noting that Boston allowed Miami to attempt 92 and 90 field goals in Games 3 and 4 at home last round. Boston has allowed the opposition to get off 88+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 games overall. Needless to say, the Celtics will be in bounce-back mode offensively after a dismal showing in Game 2. They managed to make good on just 30-of-80 field goal attempts in that contest after shooting a blistering 43-for-85 in Game 1. A return home should help, noting the C's have averaged 40 made field goals per contest at TD Garden this season. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams in Beantown saw neither team shoot particularly well with Golden State knocking down 39 field goals and Boston countering with 36, yet that contest still reached 218 total points. I believe an over-adjustment to the total has been made once again after the low-scoring result in Game 2. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. We missed with our big play on the Warriors but did cash the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. That was obviously a painful loss as Golden State entered the fourth quarter with a 12-point lead but couldn't make it stand up. Chalk it up to a case of the Celtics simply not missing from beyond the arc. Boston knocked down 21 three-pointers in that contest - similar to what we saw in Game 2 last round against the Heat. You may remember how Game 3 went as Miami controlled proceedings from the opening tip and cruised to an outright underdog road win. Here, the Warriors will look to bounce back on their home floor and I expect them to do just that. Note that Golden State is 25-12 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points on average in that situation. Boston made good on 43 field goals in Game 1 and that's notable as it hasn't posted consecutive 40+ field goal games since Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee back in the second round. Note that it lost the second of those games both SU and ATS. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 216 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 58 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Golden State at 8 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in Game 2 on Sunday. The pace certainly wasn't there for a game in the 220's on Thursday. Both teams simply shot exceptionally well from three-point range - Boston in particular as it knocked down a whopping 21 threes. We saw a similar story unfold in Game 2 last round against Miami as the Celtics hit 20+ three-pointers in a 127-point explosion. They never scored more than 103 points again in that seven-game series. Note that Boston allows just 12 made threes per game on the road this season while Golden State gives up an identical 12 threes per contest at home. The Celtics have now held nine of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - an incredible feat in today's NBA. The Warriors allowed Boston to make good on 43 field goals in the opener of this series but hasn't allowed consecutive opponents to hit more than 40 field goals since Game 5 against Memphis in the second round. In Game 6, Golden State held Memphis to just 96 points on 34 made field goals with that game easily staying 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 210.5 | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Celtics Eastern Conference Finals Game 7 win over the Heat, getting there despite the total being set in the 190's. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way as I expect this series between the C's and Warriors to play out much differently. The Celtics finally got off 80+ field goal attempts in Game 7 - 85 in fact - after being held under that number in four straight games against Miami. I'm sure the C's realize that they'll need to step up their offensive considerably against the Warriors as opposed to the banged-up Heat they faced last round. Golden State has incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of its last 21 games. While the Warriors last series against Dallas was played at a relatively slow-pace (in stark contrast to their second round series against Memphis), the 'over' still managed to cash in three of five games. Here, we're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw at any point in that series against the Mavs. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 36-22 with the Celtics checking in as an underdog over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 224.7 points. The 'over' is also a long-term 117-80 with Golden State seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent, as is the case here after Boston rolled to a 110-88 win here in San Francisco back in mid-March. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 197.5 | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. Have we transported back in time? That's what it feels like working with a total in the 190's in advance of Game 7 between the Celtics and Heat on Sunday. Of course, what else would you expect as we're talking about two of the league's best defensive teams with a chance to advance to the NBA Finals on the line. We actually won with the 'over', making that play on a considerably higher posted total on Friday. While that game ultimately cruised 'over' the total, we certainly saw glimpses of what is to come in Game 7. The Celtics were held to just 72 field goal attempts in that contest - the fourth straight game in which they were limited to fewer than 80 FG attempts. On the flip side, we finally saw Boston limit Miami's scoring opportunities, holding it to 78 FG attempts after yielding 90+ in each of the previous three games. Miami shot exceptionally well when it matter early and late in Friday's game and both teams got to the free throw line 25+ times. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as the officials 'let them play' a little more in this seventh-and-deciding game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 40-24 with Boston seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons while Miami has seen the 'under' go 14-4 when playing at home after losing two of its last three contests over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Heat in the first half (and the full game 'over') in Game 6 of this series on Friday night. I couldn't help but feel that the betting marketplace was missing the mark with Miami installed as a big underdog in a series where either team is capable of rising up and delivering a dominant performance in any given contest. The Heat did well to stave off elimination in Boston but I expect the Celtics to respond and deliver the knockout blow in Miami on Sunday. Note that the Celtics were finally able to limit the Heat's scoring opportunities somewhat on Friday night, holding them to a series-low 78 field goal attempts. Miami simply shot the lights out, relatively-speaking. It's been a bit of a slog for the Boston offense at times in this series, struggling to get out of the 70's in terms of field goal attempts per game. However, we have seen them shown the ability to shoot exceptionally well also. Off a poor shooting night on Friday, I'm certainly anticipating a strong bounce-back performance on Sunday. Rather than lay the points with the C's on the road here, we'll back them at a very reasonable price on the moneyline. Having cashed a number of tickets with the scrappy Heat in this series already, I do have plenty of respect for them and don't expect them to get their doors blown off by any means. Take Boston moneyline (10*). | |||||||
05-27-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 200.5 | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I think we're seeing a major overreaction when it comes to the total in Game 6 of this series after the last two games were exceptionally low-scoring (by today's NBA standards). While Game 5 totalled only 173 points, the pace was actually there - at least from the Heat as they got off a series-high 94 field goal attempts. They quite simply couldn't hit their shots. Now with their backs against the wall in Game 6, I'm confident we'll seem them bounce back on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Heat average an impressive 117.2 points per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season, with that situation resulting in an average total of 221.4 points (12-game sample size). The Celtics have averaged 113.2 points per game off consecutive 'under' results this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 218.1 points (23-game sample size). Miami has held Boston to fewer than 80 FG attempts in three consecutive games. The last time that happened, Miami's next game totalled 222 points back on May 4th against Philadelphia. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*). | |||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game two nights ago in Boston - as we anticipated with a play on the first half 'under'. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts back to Miami for Game 5 on Wednesday. Note that the Heat were held to just 30 made field goals in Game 4. That's happened just three times previously this season with the 'over' cashing in their next game each and every time, resulting in an average total of 226 points, including Game 4 last round against Philadelphia - a contest that flew over the posted total of 208 with 224 points. Also note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Celtics coming off a win by 15+ points this season, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 with Miami coming off a contest that totalled 190 points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 226.3 points scored in that spot. The Celtics have been a slightly better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, knocking down an average of 41 field goals per contest while for their part, the Heat average 40 made field goals per game at home. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I get the feeling we're going to see both of these teams come out pretty loose with the series well in hand for the Warriors, up 3-0. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this series, and it wasn't as Golden State secured a 109-100 victory and we cashed our play on the 'under'. With that being said, the fact that the game still got to 209 points was impressive considering the Warriors got off 81 field goal attempts and the Mavericks countered with just 75. Here, I look for the pace to tick up, particularly early on, noting that the previous time we saw an 'under' result in this series, the next game (Game 2) saw a whopping 130 points scored in the first half. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is an incredible 16-4 in the first half with the Warriors playing on the road with an opportunity to close out a playoff series, with that spot producing an average first half total of 116.0 points. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the first half 'over' go 22-10 when coming off three losses in their last four games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average first half total of 115.5 points. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Conference Finals First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday. We've seen the 'over' cash in each of the first three games of this series, not to mention the first half 'over' as well. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday, however. The last two games have seen these two teams take turns shooting the lights out. First it was a three-point barrage from the Celtics down 1-0 in the series in Game 2 and then an early all-out shooting assault from the Heat back in Boston in Game 3. Now, however, both teams are dealing with some key injuries with Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum among those getting banged-up in Game 3 on Saturday. Both will likely play on Monday but whether they're 100% healthy is up for debate. Note that the three regular season meetings between these two teams totalled just 84, 99 and 105 first half points - all staying 'under' the number we're dealing with tonight. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a home favorite this season, leading to an average first half total of just 98.3 points. The Heat have posted a very long-term 104-146 o/u mark in the first half across all playoff games over the last number of years. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Dallas at 9 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 2 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring affair on Friday. Dallas got off just 78 field goal attempts in that game - the third time in the last five games it has been held to 78 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Golden State shot the lights out for the second straight game; an identical 46-of-82 shooting to what we saw in Game 1 in fact. Note that the Mavs have only allowed consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals once previously in these playoffs. In their next game they held the Suns to just 94 points in a game that didn't even reach 200 (103-94 final score at home in Game 3 last round). While the Warriors do average 40 made field goals per contest on the road this season, they'll face a tough challenge here with Dallas allowing just 38-of-84 shooting on its home floor. Likewise, the Mavs average 39 made field goals on 85 attempts at home this season but will be up against a Warriors team that can play some defense as well, yielding their opponents just 39 made field goals on 86 attempts per game on the road this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 72-48 with the Warriors playing on the road off three consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-1 with Dallas playing at home seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110+ points this season, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks not surprisingly struggled to get back up for Game 1 of this series after overcoming the top-seeded Suns in a come-from-behind victory last round. We won with the Warriors two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Mavs here. Dallas actually did an alright job of slowing the Warriors offense in Game 1, holding it to just 82 field goal attempts. The Warriors quite simply shot the lights out. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here, however, noting that Golden State similarly shot 64% in a 142-112 Game 3 rout of Memphis last round before knocking down just 40% of its shots while eking out a 101-98 victory in Game 4. We know the Mavs are capable of better defensively, noting that they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, going 9-5 ATS while suffering consecutive ATS losses only once over that stretch. Here, we'll also point out that Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 20+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.2 points in that situation. Golden State has now held consecutive opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - the first time it has accomplished that feat all playoffs. It has also posted back-to-back ATS victories for the first time since starting its opening round series against Denver with three in a row. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 214.5 | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in Game 1 of this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 2 on Friday. While the Mavericks were blown out by 25 points in that game, the pace was actually probably to their liking. They limited the Warriors to just 82 field goal attempts in that game (I realize the lopsided nature of the contest had something to do with that) but Golden State quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 46 of those attempts. One thing was evident in that game - this series isn't likely to be the same up-tempo matchup that we saw from the Warriors and Grizzlies last round. In that series, the Warriors got off 90+ field goal attempts in four of six games while allowing Memphis to attempt 91 or more field goals in all six contests. The Mavs, despite trailing by a considerable margin most of the way, only attempted 86 field goals in Game 1 of this series - pretty much par for the course as they've averaged 84 FG attempts per game on the road this season. While we can anticipate Dallas shooting better than it did in the series-opener (it made good on just 31 field goals), how much better remains to be seen as it did put up only 87 points on Wednesday despite a whopping 48 three-point attempts (it made 11) and 21 trips to the free throw line (five more than the Warriors). Perhaps a more conservative offensive gameplan will serve it well here, as I look for Dallas to lean on a much better defensive performance than we saw in the opener. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they scored 90 or fewer points over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 204.5 points. The 'under' is also 24-11 with Dallas seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 212.0 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 | 127-102 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series as the oddsmakers quite simply missed the mark with a total just north of 200 points. Now I believe the betting marketplace has overreacted the other way, pushing this total closer to 210 points. Game 1 saw undisciplined defensive efforts from both teams, leading to a combined 66 free throw attempts. I expect nothing of the sort in Game 2 on Thursday. Both teams are fully capable of playing tough defense without needing to foul on every other possession. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring contest in the series-opener, noting that the Celtics got off just 79 field goal attempts while the Heat got off only 80. Boston has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in three straight and five of its last seven games overall. On the flip side, however, the C's have held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals in eight straight games. You would have to go all the way back to Game 1 of the playoffs against Brooklyn to find the last time a C's opponent knocked down more than 41 field goals. The Heat have been even tougher defensively. They've limited nine consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in six of those nine games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Mavericks for rallying back from a 3-2 series deficit to oust the Suns in seven games, delivering an incredible knockout punch on the road in Game 7 on Sunday. There's no question, Dallas has been at its best when facing adversity in these playoffs (Game 2 without Luka Doncic in round one against Utah and Game 3 after digging an 0-2 hole last round against Phoenix come to mind). Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Mavs best punch as both teams feel their way around Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State has the benefit of playing at home, where it has gone 37-10 this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game, and also checks in well-rested but not likely rusty following just four off days. I like the fact that the Warriors come in seeking revenge for consecutive losses against the Mavs, noting that they've gone 24-12 ATS when playing with 'double-revenge' over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average along the way. For their part, the Mavs check in just 4-6 ATS when coming off an outright underdog road victory this season, as is the case here, and 1-3 ATS when following up consecutive wins by 15+ points. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday. I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*). | |||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. Of course much will be made of the elite nature of both of these defenses heading into this Eastern Conference Finals showdown. Both defenses are certainly deserving of respect, but I believe the oddsmakers have gone a little too far by setting this total in the low-200's - in fact, I think this will likely be the lowest posted total we see in this series. While the Celtics defense obviously held up well against the Bucks last round, some of that had to do with Milwaukee missing its best option outside of Giannis on offense in Khris Middleton. Without him the Bucks struggled to find consistent offensive production, despite being afforded plenty of opportunities, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in five of seven games in the series. If the Celtics allow the Heat to get up into that range in terms of field goal attempts, things could get ugly. You see the Heat have been filling boxscores for weeks, having knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 of their last 16 games overall. In the final two games against Philadelphia last round they had seven and five players score in double-figures. The question becomes whether Boston can do its part offensively to help this total along. I believe the answer is yes, as evidenced by the very short pointspread we're looking at in Game 1. The C's check in having scored 100+ points in 15 of their last 16 games. Despite the pace not always being there, they've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 of their last 16 games. They certainly would have got there in Game 7 against the Bucks were it not for the lopsided nature of that contest, giving them the ability to 'call off the dogs' late. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 218 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Golden State at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Wednesday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 6 on Friday. Here, we'll note that Memphis has posted a 5-16 o/u record when coming off a win by 30+ points in the long-term picture, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have now gotten off 91+ field goal attempts in all five games in this series but I believe this is the game where that tide turns, noting that Ja Morant remains sidelined and the Warriors will be intent on putting their foot down and wrapping this series up on their home floor. Keep in mind, Golden State has held opponents to just 37-of-87 shooting on average here at home this season. The Warriors have now allowed Memphis to knock down 40+ field goals in three straight games but that's their longest such streak since the first week of March. Again, I look for them to make amends here. The 'under' is 25-16 with the Warriors listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, which is the situation here at the time of writing, leading to an average total of just 214.2 points. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 211.5 | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The last two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total and we were on that play in each contest. Here, I'll go the other way, however, as the scene shifts back to Milwaukee for Game 6 on Friday night. Note that the Bucks have allowed the Celtics to make good on 42 field goals in each of the last two games. We haven't seen them allow 40+ made field goals in more than two consecutive games since back in March. On the flip side, Milwaukee has gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in four of five games in this series. With that being said, it has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games. That speaks to the effectiveness of the Celtics defense and we should see that again here as Boston faces elimination for the first time in these playoffs. Note that the 'under' is 38-23 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. While the last two games in this series have been reasonably high-scoring, I still don't think anything is coming easy for either team offensively with most shots contested and four of five games in the series seeing one, if not both teams held to 10 or fewer made three-pointers. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 5 of this series two nights ago - a never-in-doubt 35-point laugher. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way, however, and back the 76ers as they look to force a seventh game in this series. The home side has won and covered in all five games in this series. Here, we'll look for the Sixers to extend that streak noting that they've gone 40-24 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Better still, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Off a 120-point explosion in Game 5, I don't see a lot of upside for the Heat offense here. Note that the Sixers have held them to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four games, no small feat after Miami had gotten off 92+ FG attempts in three of its previous four contests prior to that stretch. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out on Tuesday. Philadelphia on the other hand, had an awful shooting night in Miami last time out but on a positive note did manage to get off a series-high 85 FG attempts. Note that the Sixers managed to score 99 and 116 points in winning both previous home games in this series despite attempting just 67 and 68 field goals. If they can find a way to get that pace up a bit again here, I'm confident they can hang a crooked number on the Heat. Take Philadelphia (9*). | |||||||
05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a very low-scoring Game 4 between these two teams as Golden State prevailed by a 101-98 score (we won with the Grizzlies plus the points). I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Memphis for Game 5 - with the Grizz facing elimination. Note that Memphis has now been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in six straight games, its longest such streak of the entire season (previous was five). I do think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies break out of their funk here, even without Ja Morant. Note that Memphis has had no shortage of scoring opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91, 92 and 96 field goal attempts. The shots quite simply haven't been falling. Here, however, I expect to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown defensively as they know this series is all but wrapped up (especially with Ja Morant all but ruled out for the playoffs). Note that the Grizzlies have posted impressive offensive numbers all season at home, averaging 44-of-94 shooting and they're certainly accustomed to playing without Ja Morant as he's missed a considerable amount of time due to injury. Of course, the Warriors have had their way with the Grizzlies defense in this series. They made good on just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in Game 4 but are just one game removed from knocking down 53 field goals in a 142-point outburst in Game 3. In the first two games here in Memphis they got off 93 and 95 FG attempts, hitting 40 or more of them in both contests. While two of the last three games in this series have stayed 'under' the total, I believe too much of an adjustment has been made here. Consider the last matchup here in Memphis - Game 2 of this series - saw a closing total of 227.5. You would have to go all the way back to April 2nd and 3rd to find the last time the Warriors saw consecutive games stay 'under' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While we didn't get the result we wanted, missing with the 'over', the pace was absolutely there in Game 3 of this series on Saturday with both teams setting series-highs in terms of field goal attempts (Milwaukee had 99 and Boston 87). That was precisely what we were projecting noting how fast-paced and high scoring the two regular season meetings were here in Milwaukee. I expect more of the same on Monday, but this time I look for both teams to do a much better job of making good on their scoring opportunities. Boston in particular has struggled shooting the ball so far in this series, knocking down 28, 38 and 32 field goals through the first three games. Keep in mind, the Celtics average 41 made field goals per contest on the road this season and knocked down 42 in both road games last round. For its part, Milwaukee also averages 41 made field goals per game at home this season and has connected on 43, 49 and 40 field goals in three previous home matchups with Boston. Here, we'll note that despite Saturday's 'under' result, the 'over' remains 33-21 with the Celtics playing in an 'underdog' role over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 225.1 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix over Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Mavericks showed up defensively in Game 3 of this series and delivered a much-needed 103-94 win. Phoenix only managed to get off 76 field goal attempts in that contest yet was still reasonably competitive. Compare that with Dallas, which got off 90 FG attempts but still only made good on 40 of those, noting the Mavs have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. In stark contrast, prior to Friday's game the Suns had made good on 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. Here, I look for the Suns to make the necessary adjustments and take a strange-hold on this series, noting that they're an incredible 16-3 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.4 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (7*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward. Take Golden State (6*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks OVER 212.5 | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Milwaukee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel the total is moving in the wrong direction here, based solely on the low-scoring outcomes we saw in Games 1 and 2. The pace was actually there for an 'over' result in Game 1 but neither team shot the ball well - the Celtics in particular. The second game saw the Bucks struggle shooting the ball with Boston 'managing' the game from start to finish. Here in Game 3, I look for a different story to unfold. While the Celtics are a terrific defensive team, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Bucks, prior to Game 2, had little trouble finding their opportunities offensively against the C's this season. In five previous matchups they got off 90+ field goal attempts each and every time. I do think we'll see the Celtics hold up their end of the bargain here in Game 3 as well though, noting that the Bucks have allowed opponents to knock down an average of 41-of-91 field goal attempts here at home this season. The previous two meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee this season reached 230 and 248 points. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Phoenix and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. At some point in this series, I do expect both the Suns and Mavs to flip the switch and limit the scoring with tough defensive play that we know they're both capable of. I'm just not convinced it happens in the early stages of Game 3 on Friday. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. They've taken it to another level over their last three games, making good on 45, 46 and 49 field goals. We've certainly seen hot starts from them as well, scoring 51+ points in nine of their last 10 games overall, despite missing Devin Booker for a few of those. Scoring hasn't really been a big issue for the Mavs in this series. They've put up 114 and 109 points despite being limited to 85 and 79 field goal attempts through the first two games. Note that the Suns do allow 40 made field goals per contest away from home this season. We can certainly expect Dallas to force the issue early in this contest as it looks to finally put Phoenix back on its heels and ultimately get back in this series. Here, we'll note that the first half 'over' has gone 40-20 with the Mavs coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average first half total of 115.6 points. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. Game 1 of this series proved to be relatively low-scoring with the Heat rolling to a 106-92 victory. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Miami's last four games but the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. Note that the Heat have gotten off 92+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games. The only contest where they didn't reach that number was Game 5 against Atlanta, a game that Jimmy Butler missed due to injury. With Philadelphia sagging defensively, yielding its opponents' at least 86 field goal attempts in five of its last six games (it allows just 84 FG attempts per game on the season), I look for Miami's offense to continue to surge here in Game 2. The question becomes whether the Joel Embiid-less 76ers can hold up their end of the bargain and help this one 'over' the relatively low posted total. I believe they can. Note that Philadelphia still got to 92 points despite making good on just 34 field goals including just six made three-pointers in Game 1 of this series. The Sixers hoisted up just 79 FG attempts in the loss. I certainly anticipate them finding more scoring opportunities here, noting that Miami has allowed 45, 42, 45, 41, 41 and 31 made field goals (it allowed 94 points in the outlier - Game 5 against Atlanta last round) in its last six games following a win. While Joel Embiid's absence has to be considered, it is worth noting that the 76ers have averaged 115.7 points per game when coming off a game in which they scored 95 points or less over the last two seasons (15-game sample size). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Most already have the Warriors advancing past the Grizzlies in this series, especially after Memphis came so close but seemed so far in Sunday's Game 1 loss. There were positives for the Grizzlies to take away from that setback, however. They got off 95 field goal attempts. That's notable considering the Warriors allowed more than 87 field goal attempts just once in their opening round series against Denver. They also shot better from beyond the arc and got to the free throw line four more times than Golden State. We know there's still some inconsistency in the Warriors game - perhaps a product of so many key pieces being in and out of the lineup over the course of the season. Memphis knows it can hang with Golden State and a one-point loss in the series opener won't do anything to change that. The Grizzlies have still won three of five meetings between these two teams this season. They know, however, that Game 2 is essentially a 'must-win' as they're unlikely to take three of four games in San Francisco, where the Warriors are 34-10 SU this season. Take Memphis (5*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics didn't bring their 'A' game in the opener of this series or anything close to it. They managed to knock down just 28 field goals yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as they were coming off a five-day layoff thanks to their opening round sweep of the Nets. Here, we'll confidently back the C's noting they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS after being held to 95 points or less in their previous game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.6 points in that spot. The Bucks on the other hand are a woeful 18-30 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Milwaukee has now reeled off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS but streaks like that are uncommon in the postseason and I look for it to grind to a halt here as the Celtics win this one going away to get back in the series. Take Boston (9*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics OVER 215 | Top | 86-109 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Second Round First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Milwaukee and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We nailed our only first half total in the opening round of the playoffs. That play was on the 'over' in the first half of Game 1 between the Nets and Celtics. In my analysis of that play I noted that the Celtics have had a tendency to get involved in high-scoring first halves in playoff action but the scoring hasn't always been sustainable. We saw a glimpse of that in Game 1 of this series as the two teams scored 102 points in the first half before just 89 points were scored in the second half. Here, I'm anticipating an even higher-scoring opening half as the Celtics shake off the rust after a dismal shooting effort in Game 1. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as Boston was playing following a five-day layoff thanks to its opening round sweep of the Nets. Milwaukee was also playing on extended rest, but just three days. I simply don't feel we saw either team's best punch from an offensive standpoint. Here, I look for the Celtics to force the issue offensively in the opening half, but the defending champion Bucks are unlikely to back down early on, leading to plenty of points in the game's first 24 minutes. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 214.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Monday. The Mavs were involved in an incredibly low-scoring playoff series against the Jazz in the opening round (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a much different series to play out as they face the high-flying Suns in round two. Phoenix is in fine form offensively, even with Devin Booker in and out of the lineup. They enter Game 1 of this series having made good on 42+ field goals in nine consecutive games. That's despite the fact that they've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. I do anticipate the pace picking up a bit in this particular series, as the Mavs know they won't simply be able to slug it out and prevail the way they did against the struggling Jazz. Dallas entered the playoffs on an offensive tear, having knocked down 45, 42 and 46 field goals over its final three regular season games. Of course, an injury to Luka Doncic derailed its offense in the early stages of the series against Utah but the Mavs were able to rally and ultimately brush aside the discombobulated Jazz without too much stress. It's worth noting that Dallas got off 92 and 90 field goal attempts in its two regular season matchups with the Suns here in Phoenix. It didn't take full advantage, however, and the Suns won both of those games, knocking down 41 and 44 field goals in the process. As good as the Mavs can be defensively, I don't see them slowing a Suns offense that averages 44 made field goals and north of 115 points per game at home this season. The Mavs haven't suffered much of a drop-off in offensive production on the road compared to at home this season (of note, their highest-scoring game of the opening round came in Game 3 in Utah when they scored 126 points). As I mentioned, I expect the pace to tick up a shade in this series, particularly here in Phoenix where the Suns have allowed opponents to get off 89 field goal attempts per game this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 220.5 | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Memphis at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. Considering the pace the series was played at, I would have projected more than one 'under' result between the Warriors and Nuggets last round. That 'under' result finally came in the series finale - a game that totalled just 200 points. Golden State has now gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, the Warriors are locked-in defensively, having limited six of their last nine opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, going back to March 30th, Golden State has given up 40 or fewer made field goals in eight of 11 contests. The Grlzzlies knocked down more than 40 field goals just twice in their six-game series against the T'Wolves last round. The playoffs are obviously a different animal than the regular season and Memphis found that out as it got off 87 or fewer FG attempts in four of its six first round contests (it averages 94 FG attempts per game this season). However, the Grizzlies are also on a terrific defensive run right now, having held the T'Wolves to 38 or fewer made field goals in each of the last five games last round. Nine of Memphis' last 13 opponents have gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7 pm et on Thursday. While we have seen the total drop throughout this series, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made - even after four consecutive 'under' results. The 76ers have gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four contests, making good on 38 or less in all four of those games. Meanwhile, the Raptors posted a high-water mark with 42 made field goals in Game 5, but still scored just 103 points. Prior to that, the Raps had knocked down 38, 38 and 38 field goals over their last three games. Neither team has managed to get off 90+ field goal attempts in any game in this series and I don't see that changing with the stakes incredibly high on Thursday night in Toronto. Keep in mind, the Raptors have held opponents to 38-of-83 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, the 76ers have limited the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals per contest away from home and average just 84 FG attempts per game themselves in enemy territory. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Golden State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. All four games in this series have gone 'over' the total. The fact that Game 4 sailed 'over' the number by 20+ points has us working with a considerably higher total here. I believe it will prove too high. It's not as if the pace has really been there for such consistently high-scoring results in this series. In Game 4 for example, the Nuggets got off just 73 field goal attempts. That didn't matter though as they shot the lights out (56% from the field). In Game 3 the Warriors attempted just 74 field goals but they were also incredibly efficient, shooting 55% from the field. Here, I expect both teams to finally step up and play some defense as the Warriors look to close out the series while the Nuggets try to get proceedings back to Denver. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-9 with the Warriors playing at home in their second game in the last five days over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 219.3 points. The 'under' is also 65-46 with the Warriors coming off a loss over the last three seasons, with an average total of 220.1 points in that situation. Also note that Nuggets road games have been considerably lower scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of just 219.7 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'over' in Game 3 of this series on Saturday. That game totalled 212 points which was actually a fairly flattering number given the two teams combined to make just 26 free throws (they average a combined 35 made free throws per game this season) and Brooklyn was held to fewer than 40 made field goals for the second straight contest. Note that two straight games knocking down less than 40 field goals matches the Nets longest such streak this season. It has happened four times previously, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in their next game. I expect a similar outcome here. Brooklyn has been held to 78 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games in this series. If the Nets are finally going to be able to push the pace you figure it happens here as they face elimination and perhaps the Celtics let their guard down defensively just enough with a comfortable 3-0 series lead. Note that the Nets got off 99 and 94 field goal attempts in their two regular season matchups against the Celtics on this floor. There's little reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Celtics offense here. They're on an incredible run at that end of the floor, making good on 45, 56, 43, 43, 54, 42, 39 and 42 made field goals over their last eight games. In the lone outlier - Game 2 of this series - they still managed to score 114 points in a game that would have eclipsed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-24-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 225 | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series on Thursday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday. We're actually dealing with the highest posted total of the series so far after the first three games all found their way 'over' the total. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in Game 3, the pace hasn't necessarily been there to dictate such high-scoring results. The same held true in Game 3 but both teams simply shot the lights out. Golden State knocked down 41-of-74 field goal attempts while Denver made good on 40-of-80 of its field goal attempts. Golden State knocked down four more three-pointers than its season average away from home in Game 3, while also getting to the line seven more times than its road average. Facing elimination, I do expect the Nuggets to put forth a more disciplined defensive effort here. Meanwhile, the Warriors lukewarm defensive effort in Game 3 was only a blip during an incredible run. They've held seven of their last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last eight opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 72-47 with the Warriors playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins while the Nuggets have posted a 19-43 o/u record when playing at home after allowing their previous opponent to shoot 55% or better, as is the case here. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 222 | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We haven't touched this series since cashing with the first half 'over' in Game 1 last Sunday. Game 2 ended up being lower-scoring than Game 1, ultimately staying 'under' the total and as a result we're dealing with a lower total for Game 3 on Saturday. I believe it's the wrong move. Note that the Nets managed to get off just 78 and 76 field goal attempts in the first two games of this series, yet still scored 114 and 107 points. The 107 points in Game 2 matched their lowest scoring output going all the way back to March 3rd. Interestingly, they followed up that 107-point effort on March 3rd with a 120-point performance in a game that totalled 246 points against the Celtics on March 6th. We can anticipate the pace ticking up a bit with the scene shifting to Brooklyn for Game 3. Note that going back to March 27th the Nets have allowed their last seven opponents here at home to get off 98, 100, 89, 99, 84, 102 and 92 field goal attempts. In the two contests where we didn't see their opponents attempt 90+ field goals, we still saw 239 and 225 total points. The Celtics actually made good on just 39 field goals in Game 2 of this series yet still scored 114 points. In each of their previous six contests they had knocked down 42+ field goals and they check in shooting 41-of-88 on average away from home this season. In two regular season matchups here in Brooklyn, the C's made good on 46 and 50 field goals so they're certainly comfortable shooting on this floor. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks UNDER 222 | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Friday. While Game 2 of this series was higher scoring than Game 1, I don't expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday. Throw away a meaningless regular season finale against Orlando and the Heat are on a tremendous run defensively. Outside of that game against the Magic, they've held their other 16 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts going back to March 11th. They've also held seven of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been on an offensive tear, scoring 111 or more points in seven straight games. I'm not sure it's sustainable, however, noting that they've gotten off 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests - the lone outlier being that aforementioned game against Orlando. The Hawks may be known as a fast-paced team, yet they've actually held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts, permitting just 81, 82 and 79 over their last three games. That's not to mention the fact they've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. This will be the seventh meeting between these teams since January. As I like to say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball and just once in the previous six meetings have we seen either team reach 90 FG attempts (that game still totalled just 206 points). Take the under (9*). | |||||||
04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10 pm et on Thursday. The first two games of this series have both gone 'over' the total, even though the pace hasn't necessarily been there. The Warriors shot the lights out in those two games, knocking down 43 and 46 field goals despite being held to just 82 and 84 field goal attempts. That's nothing out of the ordinary as Golden State has actually gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 13 games overall. In terms of the Warriors red hot shooting, we have a catalyst for change at play here as the scene shifts to Denver for Game 3 on Thursday. While the Warriors have been terrific offensively in this series, it's their defense that is absolutely locked in right now, and has been for weeks. They've held six of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. We've seen them make a concerted effort to frustrate the opposition and slow the pace away from home, limiting 14 of their last 16 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. For the season, they've held opponents to an average of 39-of-86 shooting on the road. For the Nuggets, they obviously need to step up defensively in an 0-2 hole in this series. They've actually held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts with the only exception coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the Lakers. Remember, we saw a matchup between these two teams total just 175 points - a game the Nuggets won - earlier this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 21-10 with the Warriors coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. In the long-term picture we've seen the 'under' cash at a 72-46 clip with Golden State playing on the road off three or more consecutive ATS wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-20-22 | Bulls v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NBA First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first game of this series was extremely low-scoring, totalling just 179 points. As a result, we're working with a considerably lower posted total for Game 2. I believe it will prove too low. Note that the Bulls did get off 96 field goal attempts in Game 1. They simply weren't able to make good on their opportunities, knocking down just 31 of them. Note that they had previous made good on 42+ field goals in five of their last eight contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago has posted a 13-3 o/u record after scoring 100 points or less in its previous game this season. The Bucks have now yielded their opponents' 90+ field goal attempts in 13 of their last 16 games overall. So again, the opportunities will likely be there for the Bulls on Wednesday - it will be up to them to take advantage. Here, we'll note that the Bucks have allowed 113.1 points per game when playing at home off a win this season (compared to their season scoring average allowed at home of 110.5 points per game), resulting in an average total of 228.2 points. The Bulls are not a good defensive team. The Bucks simply had an off shooting night in Game 1, hitting just 34-of-84 field goal attempts. We'll chalk that poor performance up to rust as they hadn't played in a week. Prior to that contest (and their meaningless regular season finale in Cleveland), the Bucks had knocked down 50, 42, 46, 49 and 50 field goals in their last five games. Leading into this series, Chicago had allowed 45, 44, 46, 43, 52 and 46 made field goals over its last six contests, yielding 117+ points in each of those games. The Bulls haven't seen consecutive games go 'under' the total since a three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 29th. Milwaukee last posted consecutive 'under' results during a three-game 'under' streak from March 22nd to 26th. Expect a much different story to unfold than we saw in the series opener. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Few are giving the Pelicans any chance of winning this series. While I tend to agree, I do expect them to give the Suns all they can handle in Game 2 on Tuesday night. Everything went right for Phoenix in Game 1. It shot the lights out (just shy of 54% from the field). Interestingly, however, New Orleans actually got plenty of looks, hoisting up 95 field goal attempts. It got to the free throw line five more times than Phoenix. In other words, there's reason for optimism entering Game 2. The Pelicans quite simply didn't make their shots in Game 1. Keep in mind, this is a team that had made good on 40+ field goals in 23 of their last 24 games entering this series. Also note that the Pelicans have limited three of their last seven opponents to 78 or fewer FG attempts, including the Suns in Game 1 (they attempted 78 field goals). Here, we'll note that New Orleans is 36-24 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points on average in that situation. The Suns have outscored opponents by only 4.1 points on average when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons (40-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Pelicans haven't been a great road team this season going 18-25 SU (one of those wins came here in Phoenix), they've only been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points. I'm expecting a competitive affair on Tuesday. Take New Orleans (9*). | |||||||
04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors rode the emotional wave of Steph Curry's return to an easy 16-point win in Saturday's series-opener. Golden State was ahead by 20 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest as the Nuggets simply didn't bring enough intensity to stay competitive. I do expect a strong response from Denver on Monday, noting that it has already won twice in San Francisco this season. Here, we'll note that the Nuggets check in 17-7 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 14-4 ATS when on the road seeking to avenge consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. Interestingly, the Warriors have only gotten off 81, 81 and 82 field goal attempts over their last three games. In fact, they've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight games overall. Denver on the other hand, has hoisted up 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four games. That while holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 90 attempts from the field. I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw on Saturday as the Nuggets look to even up the series before heading back to Denver. Take Denver (6*). | |||||||
04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-17-22 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NBA First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Brooklyn and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I expect this series to get off to a high-scoring start on Sunday afternoon in Boston as the Nets and Celtics match up for the fifth time this season. We saw the Nets offense get in gear down the stretch, making good on 41+ field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their last four contests they knocked down 41, 43, 52 and 45 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to March 3rd to find the last time they didn't score 110+ points in a game. An issue, however, has been their loose play defensively. In their last two games they allowed the Pacers and Cavs to get off 104 and 92 field goal attempts. Seven of their last nine opponents made good on 40+ field goals. The Celtics are certainly well-positioned to take advantage. They've knocked down 43+ field goals in five straight games, eclipsing the 50 field goal mark in two of those contests. While you could argue their last couple of games didn't really matter, the C's did yield 97 and 102 field goal attempts to the opposition and I expect to see the Nets force the issue early in this one. We'll play the first half only as I have noticed a trend in Celtics playoff games where the defense picks up and the pace slows as the game progresses. Early on, I look for both sides to find plenty of scoring success here. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
04-16-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 209.5 | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 1 pm et on Saturday. I don't think Luka Doncic's absence can be over-exaggerated in this game. He obviously adds so much to the Mavs offense but is by no means a defensive stopper. Dallas' path to staying competitive in this game comes by slowing things down and ultimately limiting Utah's scoring opportunities, something it has proven to be able to do, particularly here at home this season. Note that the Mavs have yielded opponents just 38-of-85 shooting on average at home. Down the stretch we saw them allow fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 10 games. However, without Luka you do have to wonder where their offense will come from. Note that Dallas only managed to get off 78, 76, 80, 79 and 85 FG attempts over its last five regular season games and that was with Luka in the lineup the majority of the time. The Jazz have been incredibly stingy defensively, holding eight of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While their offense can be explosive at times, that certainly wasn't the case all season long, noting that they made good on 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last five games. In fact, they average just 86 FG attempts per game on the road this season with the 'under' going 22-18-1. The last meeting between these two teams on March 27th got to 214 total points but that was thanks only to the Mavs shooting the lights out. The pace of that game certainly didn't dictate an 'over' result with Utah attempting 89 field goals and Dallas getting off just 77. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
04-15-22 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 225 | 107-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Hawks rout of the Hornets two nights ago but it wasn't by much and here we're dealing with a considerably lower total as Atlanta heads to Cleveland to decide who moves onto the first round of the NBA Playoffs. I believe the total will prove too low. I'm not convinced that Wednesday's 'under' result had more to do with the Hawks superb defense than lousy shooting from the Hornets. Atlanta actually yielded 90 field goal attempts in that contest but Charlotte could make good on only 34 of them. That snapped a streak of five straight games in which the Hawks allowed 40+ made field goals - a streak I expect to pick right back up on Friday. The Cavs come in having knocked down 42, 40, 51 and 41 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, they've allowed 43+ made field goals in three of their last four contests. The lone game in which they didn't give up 40+ we still saw a whopping 248 total points against Milwaukee. I like the fact that both teams have been forcing the issue offensively, with Atlanta hoisting up 92+ FG attempts in three of its last five games and Cleveland getting off 94 and 92 FG attempts in its last two contests. Three of four regular season meetings between these two teams totalled at least 238 points with both teams attempting 90+ field goals in their most recent matchup on March 31st. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 237 | Top | 103-132 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This is the highest posted total of the play-in round and it's that high for a reason. The Hornets enter this showdown arguably playing their best offensive basketball of the season, having scored 128, 133 and 124 points over their last three games. They've made good on 40+ field goals in an incredible 15 straight games. Over their last four contests they've knocked down 45, 48, 52 and 48 field goals. While I'm not projecting a break-neck pace to this game, I'm confident both sides can make good on their opportunities. Note that the Hornets have yielded their opponents 40+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games. Two of their last three foes managed to get off 94 or more field goal attempts. The Hawks are certainly capable of taking advantage, having knocked down 43, 43, 42 and 45 field goals over their last four games. In fact, they've made good on 42+ field goals in eight of their last nine contests. However, like the Hornets the Hawks have also been generous defensively, giving up 40+ made field goals in five straight and 20 of their last 21 games overall. The last meeting between these two teams totalled just 222 points back on March 16th and that's contributing to a lower posted total here than we saw on that night. The two teams combined to hit below their average in three-point field goals and free throws in that contest. I believe this game is being projected by oddsmakers to have a pace in the high-80's as far as FG attempts go. Even at that pace I believe the two teams can get 'over' the total but if it ticks up at all, I think we see this game sail well north of the number. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way the Suns have been forcing the issue down the stretch, regardless who is in or out of the lineup, getting off 92+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games and scoring 121, 109 and 111 points in the process, winning two of those three games. Here, they should find continued success against a Kings squad that waved the white flag a long time ago and checks in having allowed 41+ made field goals in 11 consecutive games, while making good on fewer than 40 field goals themselves in six of their last 10 contests. Sacramento has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up just 81, 81, 76 and 86 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Phoenix meanwhile has knocked down 50, 42 and 46 field goals over its last three games and has made good on 42, 44 and 46 field goals in its previous three meetings with Sacramento this season. Defensively, we've seen the Suns clamp down lately, yielding opponents' fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They're just one game removed from limiting the Clippers to 33-of-75 shooting. Take Phoenix (6*). | |||||||
04-10-22 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 120-130 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Dallas at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' (by 25+ points) in the Spurs 100-94 loss to the Warriors last night. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they wrap up the regular season in Dallas on Sunday. Note that we also won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game, despite the fact that they put up 128 points against the Blazers. Here, we'll note that the Spurs have been playing much better defense lately, holding nine of their last 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. While they haven't always been able to control their opponents' tempo, they did limit the Warriors to just 81 field goal attempts last night. The Mavs don't figure to push the pace all that much here. While they did put up a ridiculous number of points last time out, they actually attempted just 79 field goals. They've hoisted up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games, getting off 90 or fewer attempts in an incredible 29 straight games. Of course that doesn't always assure us of a low-scoring result as Dallas is capable of shooting the lights out. However, here on the final night of the regular season, I'm not sure we'll see it. Defensively, the Mavs are locked-in right now, holding their last two opponents to 35 or fewer made field goals on 83 or less FG attempts. The Spurs, missing both Jakob Poeltl and DeJounte Murray - two of their best scoring options - have attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six straight games - a stark contrast to what we were seeing earlier in the season. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-10-22 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 225.5 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Raptors enter this game off consecutive 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Toronto has held four of its last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts and figures to have a good chance to keep that going against a Knicks squad that has gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in 15 of its last 16 games. New York has seen the 'under' cash in each of its last four contests and most recently limited the Wizards to just 69 FG attempts in a 114-92 win in Washington. Over their last three contests, the Knicks have yielded just 30, 41 and 35 made field goals. Brooklyn was the one opponent that knocked down 40+ field goals against them and that game still stayed well 'under' the total (we won with the 'under' in that game earlier this week). The Raptors are certainly rolling along offensively, but that's had a lot to do with getting off so many FG attempts. They've attempted 91+ field goals in three straight games - a pace I'm not sure we'll see them employ against a stingy Knicks defense here. The most recent meeting between these two teams did total 225 points but that game saw a whopping 48 made free throws, noting that the two teams average just 34 made free throws per game this season. Their two previous matchups both stayed well below the total we're working with here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 221.5 | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out. However, in the bigger picture, both have been trending to the 'under' in recent weeks. Few teams are as locked-in as the Warriors are defensively right now. They've held their last four opponents to 38, 38, 31 and 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held 11 of their last 15 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding just 81 and 83 field goal attempts over their last two games and fewer than 90 in seven of their last nine contests. We've actually seen the Spurs turn things around defensively as well, giving up 41 or fewer made field goals in four consecutive games. Opponents are still pushing the pace against them, but I'm not sure we'll see that from the Warriors here, noting that they'll be resting Klay Thompson and also have their regular season finale tomorrow in New Orleans so we can certainly expect some 'game management'. Offensively, you would have to go back six games to find the last time San Antonio got off 90+ FG attempts. While it has continued to shoot well, I question whether it will continue given how the Warriors have been playing, not to mention the fact the Spurs are without two of their top scoring options (among others) in DeJounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. The last meeting between these two teams in March totalled 218 points and I would argue that game was played at a faster pace than we'll see tonight, with both teams performing similarly offensively to what we can expect here, lending itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
04-08-22 | Blazers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 78-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse offensive basketball than the Blazers as we head into the final weekend of the regular season. Missing so many key contributors following a pre-trade deadline fire sale and then a number of injuries, they're limping to the finish line. Note that Portland has scored 94 points or less in three straight games, struggling to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting only 84, 83 and a woeful 69 field goals over its last three contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three straight and seven of the Blazers last nine games overall. On a positive note, they have held 10 of their last 13 opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They had allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games prior to last night's 127-94 loss in New Orleans (the Pelicans knocked down 44-of-93 FG attempts in that game). The Mavs have of course been lights out offensively of late. The 'over' has cashed in each of their last six games even though the pace hasn't necessarily dictated such a streak. They've attempted 80 or fewer field goals in each of their last three contests. Dallas has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in seven of its last 11 games overall. On the flip side, the Mavs held the Pistons to just 35-of-82 shooting in their most recent contest and I believe that offers some foreshadowing as to what we're likely going to see against the down-trodden Blazers on Friday. This is a game the Mavs will undoubtedly be looking to 'manage' as nearly a 20-point favorite playing their sixth game in the last 11 nights (in five different cities). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-07-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Magic have essentially thrown in the towel defensively, allowing 42+ made field goals in three of their last four games with 12 of their last 18 opponents getting off 90+ field goal attempts. However, as we saw two nights ago in an underdog role against the Cavs, they're still capable of rising up and playing the role of spoiler, scoring 120 points on 47-of-93 shooting despite missing a number of key contributors in that contest. Here, they'll travel to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that has acted as a swinging door defensively, allowing 43, 40, 40, 53 and 48 made field goals over their last five games despite only one of those contests being played at a particularly fast pace (their last four opponents have all gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts). Offensively, Charlotte continues to shine. It has knocked down 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games, scoring 106 or more points in all 12 of those contests. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. But again, defense is an issue. Each of Charlotte's last 15 opponents have scored 100+ points. Remember, the Magic shot 45-of-87 from the field and scored 116 points in their most recent matchup here in Charlotte back in January. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season but I believe it's warranted. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
04-06-22 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 232 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this total sets up on Wednesday as the Nets play their second game in as many nights, making the short trip to Manhattan to face the Knights. Brooklyn rolled to a 118-105 win over lowly Houston last night. That marked the Nets third consecutive 'under' result and that's a trend I'm willing to bet on continuing here. Brooklyn has now held three straight and eight of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Knicks don't figure to challenge that trend as they've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in nine of their last 14 contests. They did bust out in their last game, scoring 118 points on 45-of-93 shooting but that was against a Magic team that has quite simply folded the tent down the stretch, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. New York has tightened the screws defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of its last 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip over that stretch. While the Nets have scored 115+ points in four straight games, they're in a bit of a tougher spot here, noting this is the second of back-to-backs and considering the Knicks have yielded opponents 85 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six contests and 90 or less attempts in nine consecutive games. Finally, I'll point out that none of the previous three meetings in this series this season have topped 222 total points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-05-22 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 222.5 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams just met last week and combined to score a whopping 265 points in a wild overtime affair in Portland. The two teams combined to knock down 98 field goals including 40 from beyond the arc in that contest. I'm not expecting a repeat performance from either side here. Both teams are simply playing out the string at this point, and have been for quite some time. They're also both dealing with a number of key injuries and absences. The Blazers have been as uneven as it gets offensively of late, not unexpected given the current state of their roster. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in six of their last nine games. On a positive note they have limited the opposition to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games and 85 or less in seven of their last nine overall. Oklahoma City had been pushing the pace a bit when Shae-Gilgeous Alexander was healthy, however, he's now out for the remainder of the season and the Thunder have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. There's reason to think they'll be interested in slowing things down here after successfully doing so in a stunning 117-96 win over the Suns as a 14-point underdog last time out - a game in which they allowed just 37-of-89 shooting. Four of the Thunder's last six opponents have knocked down 41 or fewer field goals. Prior to that high-scoring one-off between these two teams last week, the previous two meetings this season totalled just 179 and 189 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
04-03-22 | Wolves v. Rockets +12.5 | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is simply too many points for the T'Wolves to be laying given how poorly they've been playing defensively. Minnesota checks in having yielded 49, 48 and 46 made field goals over its last three games but is coming off a 106-100 win as a three-point underdog in Denver two nights ago. It's not as if the Wolves have been unstoppable offensively lately either, knocking down 43 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone winless through the first three games on their current four-game homestand. With that being said, those three previous losses have come by just 3, 3 and 5 points. Despite playing at a fast pace, six of Houston's last seven opponents have made good on 44 or fewer field goals. We've seen the Rockets start pushing the pace again over their last couple of games, getting off 94 and 97 field goal attempts against the Kings. They should be afforded a similar number of opportunities here with Minnesota having yielded opponents 90+ FG attempts in five of its last nine contests. The T'Wolves 'only' won by 18 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams despite shooting a ridiculous 55-of-108 from the field. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
04-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. 76ers | 114-144 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Philadelphia at 12:40 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Hornets in this early matchup on Saturday. Charlotte has quietly won eight of its last 10 games overall. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 straight games. Simply put, they're rolling right now. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to scuffle along. They dropped an ugly 102-94 decision in Detroit two nights ago. In stark contrast to the Hornets, the Sixers have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, their defense has sagged, yielding 45, 44 and 41 made field goals in their last three games. While ordinarily I would assume that Philadelphia could frustrate Charlotte by slowing the pace here, I'm not sure that will be the case noting that the Hornets have actually limited four of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
04-01-22 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 231 | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers most recent game - a 117-107 loss at home against New Orleans on Wednesday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as they hit the road to face the Spurs. Note that these two teams just matched up on March 23rd in Portland as San Antonio rolled to a 133-96 win. That game managed to creep 'over' the total despite Portland shooting a woeful 36-of-94 from the field. I do expect some improvement from the revenge-minded Blazers here, noting that they've made good on 43, 37, 51 (OT-aided) and 39 field goals over their last four games. The problem for Portland is its non-existent defense. It has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 43, 44, 48 and 40 field goals, giving up 115+ points in all five contests. The Spurs should certainly be able to take advantage. They've scored 107+ points in five straight games, making good on 47 and 42 field goals over their last two contests. My concern with the Spurs laying all of those points in this spot is that they've allowed opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts in six straight games. With the Blazers finding a bit of confidence offensively over the last couple of games, I do think they can contribute enough to help this one 'over' the total. In the Spurs last five home games they've allowed the opposition to knock down 45, 52, 43, 48 and 44 field goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-30-22 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 228 | Top | 117-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. C.J. McCollum will make his return to Portland as a member of the Pelicans after being dealt from the Blazers prior to the trade deadline. While the Blazers are going nowhere this season, I do think they get up for this game and we see an up-tempo affair on Wednesday night. We know what we're going to get from New Orleans right now. The Pelicans have scored 102+ points in 20 consecutive games and have made good on 40+ field goals in 15 straight contests. The Blazers don't figure to do much to stand in their way here, noting they've allowed 40+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Albeit aided by overtime, they allowed 48-of-90 shooting and 134 points against an undermanned Thunder squad last time out. Despite a depleted roster, Portland has managed to push the pace a little more than it had been recently over its last couple of games, attempting 93 and 99 field goal attempts in regulation time in those two contests. The Blazers have generally been alternating good and bad offensive efforts lately, but again, I expect them to get up for this one, especially as they look to salvage something from this five-game homestand (they're 0-4 so far). While New Orleans has been limiting its opponents' tempo for the most part, it is also allowing the opposition to shoot for a lofty percentage. Note that four of the Pelicans last five opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-29-22 | Lakers v. Mavs OVER 218 | 110-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Lakers will likely be without Lebron James for this game but I feel the total has been adjusted too low based on the way they've been playing lately. L.A. has actually settled into a bit of a groove offensively, having made good on 47, 48, 53, 50 and 42 field goals over its last five games with the low-water mark coming in a game where it got off just 80 field goal attempts against New Orleans last time out. On the flip side, the Lakers have also gone back to their awful ways defensively, giving up 44+ made field goals in five straight games with five of their last six opponents putting up 120+ points. The Mavs obviously play tough defense at home. I can see them lacking a bit of intensity here, however, as they look ahead to a trip to Cleveland tomorrow and perhaps underestimate the Lebron-less Lakers. While Los Angeles averages just 111.1 points per game on the road this season, that average bumps up to 116.9 points per game when coming off a road loss, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them lately, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals over their last two games. It's not as if those two contests came against elite defensive teams either. The first was against a 'defense-optional' Pelicans squad and the next came against a reeling Cavaliers defense. Here, Chicago will face rival New York, noting that you would have to go back to March 13th against Brooklyn to find the last time the Knicks allowed more than 42 made field goals in a game. The Knicks have actually won three games in a row SU but did lose ATS yesterday in Detroit, which actually works in our favor here with the line creeping up in favor of the Bulls. Note that there's been little to choose between these two teams this season with all three of the previous matchups decided by six points or less. I'll grab the points here. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-27-22 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 240 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. I don't expect to see much defense in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday night. The Hornets roll into this game having made good on 52, 49, 43, 44, 40, 42 and 41 field goals over their last seven games. You get the idea. They're scoring fairly consistently right now and won't back down from the challenge at hand in Brooklyn on Sunday, noting that they've already won on this floor this season. More recently these two teams met in Charlotte and they combined to score 253 points on March 8th. The Nets entered last night's game in Miami having knocked down 45+ field goals in all but one of their previous nine games. Counter to that, they've also yielded 92+ FG attempts to opponents in five of their last eight contests. Expect a track meet here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-27-22 | Wolves v. Celtics OVER 227.5 | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a hotter offensive team than the Celtics right now. They've made good on 46, 47, 44 and 50 field goals over their last four games, scoring 124+ points in each of those four contests. Keep in mind, the C's are just one game removed from allowing 123 points on 48-of-93 shooting against an undermanned Thunder squad so there's a path for the T'Wolves to stay competitive in an underdog role here. Minnesota has of course been playing well also and checks in having knocked down 52, 40, 47, 36, 42 and 43 field goals over its last six games. The outlier came on the road against Dallas and it's worth noting the Wolves still scored 108 points in that game. We can be quite confident that the Wolves will find their scoring opportunities here, noting that they've gotten off 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six games and also reached that number in their first meeting with Boston this season. The Celtics have been scoring at will despite the fact that they've been held to 88 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games. They're likely to get into the 90's in that department here, noting that Minnesota has yielded 90+ FG attempts to opponents in four of its last six contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Bucks v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 102-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled 240 points and while we're dealing with a higher posted total this time around, I believe it will still prove too low. We of course know that the Bucks can 'fill it up' on any given night, seemingly regardless who is in or out of the lineup. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 14 of their last 15 games overall, and more recently have knocked down 40, 47, 43, 50 and 42 field goals in their last five contests. They also haven't been doing anything to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 92+ field goal attempts in six straight games. As for the Grizzlies, they've hit 40+ field goals in 13 straight games, even with the likes of Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks in and out of the lineup (Morant remains sidelined while Brooks should be back on Saturday). They've been lights out offensively over their last few games, knocking down 46, 47 and 50 field goals over that stretch while scoring 122+ points in all three contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 234.5 | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I understand the thinking that this will be a 'defense-optional' type of affair but I have little confidence in both offenses showing up and hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard. Houston 'unders' have been one of the best kept betting secrets in the NBA lately as each of its last four contests have stayed 'under' the total with only one of those games coming anywhere close to eclipsing the total. The Rockets have gotten off just 86, 77, 85, 79, 86, 85 and 82 field goal attempts over their last seven games. They've made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. Houston has topped out at 118 points over its last seven contests and even that might not be enough to topple the total on Friday. After a miserable stretch of non-existent defense we have seen the Rockets hold their last two opponents to just 85 and 86 FG attempts. It's not as if the Blazers have been able to consistently push the pace, not with their injury-depleted roster that was already cleaned out by way of trades prior to the deadline. They've made good on just 38, 37 and 36 field goals over their last three games. Pre-trade deadline acquisition Josh Hart gave them a bit of an offensive spark on a recent road trip but now he's sidelined due to injury as well. On a positive note, Portland has at least been limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively-speaking, I know), yielding 80, 77, 84, 85 and 94 FG attempts over its last five contests. Its most recent game was the outlier as it allowed a whopping 133 points against San Antonio. Of course, the Rockets aren't the Spurs, and I expect a better defensive effort from the Blazers here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and it's not as if they're getting any looser. Neither team has scored more than 114 points in any of the previous three matchups with those contests totalling 216, 216 and 218 total points. I would anticipate tonight's contest being played at a very similar pace to what we saw earlier this week when the Mavs prevailed by a 110-108 score in Dallas. That game saw the two teams combined to knock down 27 three-pointers (they average a combined 28 made threes per game this season) and 39 free throws (they average 34 made free throws combined this season). The Mavs continue to put the defensive clamps on the opposition, yielding fewer than 89 FG attempts in seven of their last nine games. The only two opponents that got off more than 89 attempts were Brooklyn and the same Minnesota squad they'll face tonight, with those two scoring just 111 and 108 points, respectively. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in a game. The T'Wolves are actually a respectable defensive team here at home this season, holding the opposition to 38-of-87 shooting on average with the 'under' cashing at a 19-17-1 clip. They got lit up by a red hot Suns squad that couldn't miss last time out. Coming off consecutive losses I look for Minnesota to tighten things up here. Note that the last three times they've played at home following consecutive losses they've allowed just 103, 99 and 106 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Warriors +3 v. Hawks | 110-121 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Yes, the Warriors have been unsteady, particularly since losing Steph Curry to injury. However, they did rebound with a big win in Miami two nights ago (with Klay Thompson resting) and I look for them to build on that performance here. Note that the Warriors continue to play exceptional defense. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of their last four opponents has managed to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to tonight's opponent, Atlanta, which has allowed 12 straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. Incredibly, you would have to go all the way back to January 28th against Boston to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. The Warriors have accomplished that feat four times since then. The Hawks haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively either. Yes, they went off thanks to Trae Young's heroics at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. However, they've been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six games. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers suffered a disappointing home loss to the lowly Kings last night, snapping a two-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce back with a better performance against a much tougher opponents in Memphis on Thursday. Note that the Pacers continue to thrive offensively, making good on 41+ field goals in eight straight games entering Thursday's contest. On the flip side, we've seen Indiana hold its last three opponents to 79, 81 and 82 field goal attempts. I don't need to tell you that if they're able to continue that trend here it will be awfully tough for the Grizzlies to cover such a lofty pointspread. Memphis is coming off a dominant win over the Nets at home last night. Like the Pacers, they've continued to roll offensively, however they've actually allowed 41+ made field goals in four of their last five contests - only the reeling Rockets failed to reach that mark over that stretch. Here, I think there's a good chance we see Memphis 'manage' proceedings, noting that it has a four-game in six-night stretch on deck, beginning Saturday against the defending champion Bucks. Take Indiana (9*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | 104-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Are the Cavaliers a bad defensive team? They certainly have been lately, allowing 43, 41, 46, 41 and 53 made field goals and 109+ points in each of their last five games. Things won't get any easier against a Raptors squad that returns home off a double-digit loss in Chicago two nights ago. While Toronto didn't have a great night shooting the ball against the Bulls, it continues to force the issue offensively, getting off 94, 102, 96. 83, 97, 93 and 91 field goal attempts over its last seven games. Defensively, the Raps have been a bit of a mixed bag lately. Here, they'll host a Cavs squad that has continued to thrive offensively, knocking down 44, 45 and 45 field goals over their last three games and scoring 113+ points in five consecutive games. While the last meeting between these two teams on March 6th was of the low-scoring variety (200 total points scored), just two matchups back the Cavs hung 144 points on the Raps, shooting a ridiculous 56-for-106 from the field in that victory. With Toronto having lost all three previous meetings in this series this season we can expect it to go all out on Thursday, I'm just not convinced it will be able to run away and hide, and that type of situation lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-22-22 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday. We've missed with the 'under' in the Nuggets last two games but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they host the struggling Clippers on Tuesday. Note that Denver's most recent game just as easily could have stayed 'under' were it not for the red hot Celtics absolutely shooting the lights out. Remember, two games back the Nuggets game in Cleveland stayed 'under' the total for us in regulation time before flying 'over' thanks to overtime. The pace simply hasn't been there for a sustainable 'over' run when it comes to Denver. It has now held nine of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in regulation time including each of its last four. Meanwhile, the Denver offense cooled off last game, knocking down just 35-of-87 FG attempts against the Celtics. Note that the Nuggets have gotten off 90 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in 14 consecutive games. The Clippers meanwhile desperately need to tighten things up after three straight losses. I'm confident they'll do just that on Tuesday, noting that they've been idle since a blowout loss in Utah on Friday. L.A. has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, shooting 38-of-78 and 31-of-86 over its last two games. Note that the 'under' is 11-2 with the Clips playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 203.7 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 132-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Celtics rout of the Nuggets last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Monday as they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. This is certainly a game I can envision the Celtics 'managing' as they wrap up a four-game in six-night road trip - one that has been highly-successful as they've won all three games so far. After shooting a blistering 56% and 57% over their last two games I do anticipate some regression from the C's here. Note that Boston is by no means pushing the pace, having gotten off 88, 81, 82 and 82 field goal attempts in its last four games. On the flip side, perhaps no team in the league is as locked-in defensively as Boston right now. It has limited each of its last six opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back to March 3rd to find the last time an opponent got off 90+ field goal attempts. Oklahoma City scored just 85 points in last night's loss in Orlando, clearly looking like a team that's running out of gas missing a number of key contributors, and one that will now be playing its sixth game in the last nine nights (in four different cities) on Monday. The Thunder have to realize their only hope of staying remotely competitive in this game is by mucking things up and turning it into a slugfest, especially if Shae-Gilgeous Alexander is forced to miss a second straight game (he remains questionable at the time of writing). The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 216 points, but that contest was played at a faster pace than I'm projecting tonight (OKC got off 96 FG attempts and the two teams combined to make good on 35 three-pointers - they average just 25 combined per game this season). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Lakers v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 131-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavs enter Monday's game on the heels of four consecutive 'over' results. I expect that streak to come to an end here, as they host the road-weary Lakers. We of course missed with the 'under' in the Cavs overtime win over the Nuggets on Friday. We obviously deserved a better fate in that contest as the score stayed 'under' the total in regulation time before eclipsing the number in OT. Cleveland has now held its last three opponents to just 79, 83 and 85 field goal attempts in regulation time. All three opponents happened to shoot considerably better than their season average but I'm not anticipating a similar story to unfold here as the Lakers play their third game in four nights away from home. L.A. actually managed to shoot the lights out on Friday in Toronto and Saturday in Washington. Prior to that, the Lakers had made good on fewer than 40 field goals in three straight games, scoring 111 points or less in all three of those contests. Cleveland isn't likely to push the pace too much in this one, noting that it has gotten off fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in six consecutive games. The Cavs shot exceptionally well on Saturday night against Detroit (better than 50%) but again, we can expect some regression here as they play their third game in four nights and perhaps look to 'manage' proceedings a little bit here as they take the floor for the seventh time in the last 11 nights. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season was played at a similar pace to what I'm projecting tonight, and that contest totalled just 214 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 222 | 124-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We suffered a bad beat with the 'under' in the Nuggets last game as overtime ended up pushing the final score 'over' the total in Cleveland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as Denver returns home to host the Celtics on Sunday. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as the Celtics right now. They've held their last five opponents to 36, 35, 33, 32 and 33 made field goals, allowing no more than 86 field goal attempts in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 4-1 over that stretch. Note also that Boston is by no means tearing up and down the floor on offense, getting off just 88, 81 and 82 FG attempts over its last three contests. Meanwhile, Denver checks in off consecutive 'over' results but the pace certainly hasn't been there to dictate that. Note that the Nuggets have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts in regulation time. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to February 16th to find the last time they attempted more than 90 field goals in a game. They've gotten off no more than 87 FG attempts in eight of their last nine games. Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 210 points and that was a game that was played at a faster pace than I'm anticipating tonight (both teams attempted 90+ field goals in that February 11th game). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 235 | Top | 122-98 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Houston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold when they match up on Sunday afternoon in Houston. The Grizzlies offense got bogged down in a 120-105 loss in Atlanta on Friday, getting off just 85 field goal attempts in the loss. Keep in mind, they had hoisted up 92+ field goal attempts in seven straight games prior to that, including 101 or more in each of their last four contests. Here, the Rockets are unlikely to contain the Grizzlies offense, noting that Houston has yielded 91+ FG attempts in six of its last seven games, allowing seven straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals with six of those opponents making good on at least 44 field goals. On the flip side, we've seen the Rockets make good on exactly 39 field goals in two of their last three games but that's had more to do with slow pace than anything else. Here, they should be afforded the opportunity to get out and run against a Grizzlies defense that has permitted 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. The Rockets attempted just 82 field goals in their most recent meeting with Memphis back on March 6th, but still managed to score 123 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both teams are in a back-to-back spot here and while the Lakers check in off an overtime win over the Raptors, the Wizards are coming off their sixth consecutive loss. I like Washington to bounce back here, however, as it returns home before heading out on the road for another three. The Wizards offense has gotten bogged down lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games, winning only twice over that stretch. Here, it should benefit from a lot more scoring opportunities against a Lakers squad that has had no ability, or interest in controlling opponents' tempo, yielding 90+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is a quick rematch between these two teams after the Lakers won by 13 in Los Angeles last Friday. L.A. shot the lights out in that game but I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that the Lakers average just 109.0 points per game when coming off a win this season (2.1 points per game less than their season scoring average), outscored by 3.8 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers enter Friday's game in Utah off consecutive losses but extended losing streaks have certainly not been common for them this season, with their longest lasting just three games. I expect them to bounce back here against an undermanned Jazz squad that will be without both Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic (that duo combined to shoot 17-of-25 in the most recent meeting between these two teams in December). While Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games, I like what I've seen from it defensively as it has limited its last three opponents to just 80, 86 and 83 field goal attempts. Of the Clippers last eight opponents, only two have managed to get off 90+ FG attempts. After allowing five straight opponents to make good on 41 or more field goals, the Clips have now held two of their last three opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Jazz haven't been able to get out and run as much as they would likely lately, and when they have, they've struggled shooting the ball. They've attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six of their last eight contests. In the other two games they shot a miserable 37-of-92 and 37-of-93 in outright losses as favorites against the Bucks and Spurs. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed its last three opponents to knock down 47, 40 and 43 field goals, giving up 125, 117 and 110 points in the process. Of Utah's last eight opponents, four of them have gotten off 91+ FG attempts. Keep in mind, the Clippers are just one game removed from hoisting up 98 FG attempts in a loss to the Cavs. I think we'll see the revenge-minded Clips afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Note that while Utah took the most recent meeting between these two teams, that was only thanks to shooting the lights out (47-of-89 - with Mitchell and Bogdanovic key contributors as I mentioned earlier). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Nuggets v. Cavs UNDER 223 | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Nuggets saw their most recent game go 'over' the total in Washington two nights ago (we missed with the 'under' in that contest) while the Cavs have seen their last two games go 'over' the total, not to mention four of their last five overall. With that being said, we're dealing with a higher posted total here than we saw in the first meeting between these two teams back in late October - a game that totalled just 186 points in Denver. That game was played at a similar pace to what we can probably expect here and while I do look for both teams to shoot better than they did on that night, I'm not sure it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total as we certainly have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Note that the Nuggets have by no means been playing at a frenetic pace. They've gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of their last eight and 10 of their last 12 games overall. In the two outliers over that stretch they attempted just 90 field goals on both occasions. That's not to mention the fact that they've held five of their last six opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. They're just one game removed from holding a good 76ers offense to 36-of-84 shooting, on the road no less. Likewise, the Cavs haven't been playing at a pace that would dictate their recent run of 'over' results. They've gotten off 79, 86, 86 and 80 FG attempts over their last four games and have made good on fewer than 40 field goals in eight of their last 11 contests. I do think Cleveland is a better defensive team than it has shown lately, most recently allowing the aforementioned 76ers to shoot a blistering 41-of-79 from the field in a 118-114 loss two nights ago. Note that the Cavs have allowed an average of 38-of-87 shooting here at home this season, where the 'under' has gone 22-10-1. I'm not sure that either team will be interested in a track meet here, noting that the Nuggets are in the midst of a stretch that sees them play eight games in 13 nights (in four different cities) while the Cavs are in the front-half of a back-to-back in a stretch that sees them play six games in nine nights (including tomorrow's home game against Detroit). Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Mavs v. Nets UNDER 221 | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'under' in the Mavs most recent game - a thrilling 95-92 win in Boston on Sunday afternoon. We also won with the Nets in last night's rout of the Magic in Orlando. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as Dallas continues its five-game road trip in Brooklyn. The Mavs are absolutely locked-in defensively right now and come into this one off a much-needed couple of days off. Dallas has held each of its last four opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts, with the opposition making good on just 36, 36, 41 and 33 field goals over that stretch. In the one game that the opposition did eclipse 40 made field goals, Dallas still allowed just 100 points in a game that totalled only 213 points against Houston. Offensively, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time the Mavs attempted 90+ field goals in a game. Going back to February 27th, they've gotten off 78, 82, 85, 84, 88, 86, 88 and 74 FG attempts. You get the picture. They've also been inconsistent in knocking down those shots, hitting just 39, 27, 40 and 33 field goals over their last four contests. The Nets obviously lit up a bad Magic defense last night, as expected. That was on the road, where they have the services of Kyrie Irving, which of course isn't the case here at home. Brooklyn has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. It has of course shot the lights out over its last five contests but will face a stiff challenge against the Mavs here. It's the defensive end of the floor where I've been most impressed by the Nets. They enter this game having yielded just 30, 39 and 36 made field goals over their last three games. The pace has certainly been up there over that stretch as they've allowed 93+ FG attempts in two of their last three games. I just don't see the Mavs pushing the tempo the way the Nets recent opponents have. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Nuggets v. Wizards UNDER 229 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards have seen the 'over' cash in seven straight games but I don't believe that's a sustainable trend. The pace they've been playing at certainly doesn't dictate such a streak. Note that Washington has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in each of its last eight games. Defensively, the Wizards have certainly been struggling, but are also coming off four straight road games. They're in a more favorable spot here, back home hosting a Nuggets squad playing its ninth game in the last 15 nights and fifth-in-eight, in four different cities no less. Like the Wizards, the Nuggets haven't exactly been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 84 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. You would have to go back to March 2nd to find the last time they attempted 90 field goals in a game and they scored just 107 points in Oklahoma City on that night. Aside from a loss against a Raptors squad that has been playing at a furious pace lately, the Nuggets have done a good job of controlling the tempo of their opposition, allowing 88 of fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. They've yielded opponents just 87 FG attempts per game on the road this season. Note that the Wizards actually got off 90 FG attempts in the first meeting between these two teams this season but could only muster 107 points in a game that totalled just 220 points. We saw a closing total of 216 in that one, so we're being given a considerably higher total to work with here. I'm not convinced it's warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off a SU win but ATS loss against the Knicks on Sunday while the Magic have quietly reeled off four consecutive ATS wins entering Tuesday's matchup in Orlando. I like the way this one sets up for the Nets, however. Note that Brooklyn has been ultra-efficient offensively of late, knocking down 45, 46, 51 and 44 field goals over its last four games despite getting off 90+ field goal attempts only once over that stretch. Orlando has been hanging in there largely due to its opposition struggling in terms of FG%, noting that it has actually yielded 90+ field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. If the pace gets up to that level tonight, there's a good chance we see the Nets 'go off' offensively given the way they've been shooting. On the flip side, Brooklyn limited New York to just 83 FG attempts in Sunday's narrow victory and has held three of its last five opponents to 83 FG attempts or fewer. The Nets last two opponents have made good on just 30 and 39 field goals. Note that the Magic, despite getting off a reasonable 88 FG attempts per game here at home, have only managed to knock down an average of 38 field goals per contest. There is valid concern here that the Nets elect to 'manage' this game given they have a big home date with the Mavericks on deck tomorrow. However, this will be just their second game in the last five nights, and tomorrow's contest will begin a very manageable three-game in six-night homestand, so those concerns can be tempered somewhat. Considering the Magic took the last meeting between these two teams by a 100-93 score in Brooklyn back in mid-December, we'll back a revenge-minded Nets squad laying what I consider to be a reasonable number on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |