Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-14-22 | Raptors -4 v. Lakers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Raptors have quietly turned things around following a disappointing four-game losing streak, reeling off three straight wins despite running into two hot shooting opponents in Phoenix and Denver over their last two contests. The Raps have done an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, yielding just 85, 84, 88 and 78 field goal attempts over their last four games. The Suns and Nuggets managed to knock down 44 and 43 of those attempts over the last two games but I certainly don't anticipate the Lakers reaching those levels here. Los Angeles made good on only 36-of-81 FG attempts in a 140-111 loss in Phoenix last night. While the Lakers have hit 41+ field goals in five of their last six games, the majority of those contests were played at a very fast pace. Los Angeles has gotten off 91+ FG attempts in three of its last four games - a number I don't see it approaching here. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 93+ FG attempts in four of their last five games and should be able to find continued success against a Lakers squad that has had no luck or interest in slowing opponents down, yielding 93, 92, 84, 102, 85 and 102 FG attempts over their last six games (one of those 102's came by way of overtime in Houston). The Raptors have knocked down 41, 42 and 48 field goals over their last three games, putting up 119, 117 and 127 points along the way. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks wild, high-scoring win over the Pacers last night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Atlanta on Monday as it stays home to host the lowly Blazers. Portland snapped its six-game losing streak with a 127-118 win over the Wizards on Saturday. There's reason to be somewhat positive about the Blazers, even with all of their injuries and after their pre-trade deadline fire sale. I say that because they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and better still, four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Two of their last three opponents have knocked down fewer than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Hawks have hit 40+ field goals in four straight games. That's with getting off 90+ FG attempts in two of those three contests, however. More concerning is the fact that Atlanta has yielded 52, 46, 43, 47, 40 and 46 made field goals over its last six games. It's not as if the pace has necessarily dictated those high field goal totals either as four of those six opponents attempted fewer than 90 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to January 28th to find the last time an opponent didn't score 100+ points against the Hawks. Also of note is the fact that the Hawks could very well elect to 'manage' this game as they're in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 11 games in 19 nights and as I mentioned on the second of back-to-backs after a fairly taxing contest last night. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans OVER 228 | 105-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. Neither of these teams have played a lick of defense lately and I don't see that changing as they meet up on Sunday night in New Orleans. While the Pelicans have a number of key absences to deal with, most notably C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram, they still managed to score 120 points in a track meet that totalled 260+ against Charlotte two nights ago and I'm anticipating more of the same against the Rockets on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of a play on the 'over' in the Rockets overtime win over the Lakers earlier this week, Houston has shown no ability or interest in slowing their opponents down, now having yielded 96, 92, 86, 97, 91, 101 and 88 field goal attempts over their last seven games, allowing 112 or more points in all seven contests. Meanwhile, we've seen the Rockets ramp up their own offensive production lately, knocking down 52 and 41 field goals over their last two games (I realize the first of those two performances was aided by overtime). They've scored 100+ points in seven straight games and are expected to get a boost with the return of Christian Wood on Sunday. The Pelicans were doing a nice job defensively after the All-Star break but that seems like an eternity ago now as they've been lit up for 47+ made field goals in three of their last four games. Fortunately their offense has continued to thrive, knocking down 41+ field goals in seven straight games. New Orleans has put up 100+ points in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. We've actually seen all three meetings between these two teams this season stay 'under' the total we're working with here. With that being said, the pace just wasn't there in those three contests but given current form I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 236.5 | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pacers are coming off an 'under' result last night while the Hawks have seen the 'under' cash in three straight games. I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Indiana allowed an undermanned Spurs squad to get off a whopping 102 field goal attempts in last night's 119-108 win. While the Pacers are in a back-to-back spot here, they'll play just two games in the next six nights afterwards so I don't expect them to attempt to 'manage' this game by any means. Note that Indiana has now allowed 91+ field goal attempts in eight of its last nine contests. Each of its last six opponents has poured in 42+ made field goals. Atlanta, meanwhile, comes in having made good on 42, 43 and 43 field goals over its last three games and has put up 110+ points in five consecutive games. There are concerns defensively, however, as the Hawks have allowed 52, 46, 43, 47 and 40 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't consistently been able to control opponents' tempo, or perhaps haven't been all that interested in doing so. The Pacers are certainly pushing the pace (as usual), getting off 91+ field goal attempts in four of their last five games and making good on 44, 49 and 45 field goals over their last three contests. The most recent meeting between these two teams was played right around the pace we would anticipate on Sunday and it got to 245 total points back on February 8th. Atlanta poured in 52 field goals in that victory and the case could certainly be made for the Pacers being a worse defensive team now, or more disinterested anyway, than they were then. On the flip side, that game started a streak of 13 straight games in which Indiana put up 103+ points. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-13-22 | Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Mavericks last three games and the pace has certainly been there to support that. Dallas has held each of its last three opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts, limiting two of those opponents to exactly 36 made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to find the last time Dallas attempted 90+ field goals in a game. It has made fewer than 40 field goals in two of its last three contests and is just one game removed from making good on only 27 field goals in a 77-point performance against the Knicks, at home no less. The Mavs have done a good job of controlling their opponents' tempo on the road this season, allowing just 39-of-86 shooting on average. The Celtics, meanwhile, saw their most recent game creep 'over' the total against Detroit. The 'over' checks in 3-1 in the Celtics last four games but the pace doesn't necessarily support that trend. Boston has held its last three opponents to 89, 84 and 83 field goal attempts with its last two opponents making good on just 36 and 35 field goals. While the C's do come in having hit 40+ field goals in each of their last four games, they've gotten off 89+ field goals in three of those four contests. Should the pace slow down here, as I expect it to against Dallas, it's likely they'll have a tougher time approaching that 40 made field goal mark. Note that the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points and saw a closing total of 210. We're being afforded a higher total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors +1.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams come in playing well but it's the Bucks that have been doing it for a longer period, securing six straight wins heading into this clash. The Warriors, meanwhile, righted the ship with consecutive wins over the Clippers and Nuggets this week. I like Golden State to keep it going on Saturday. The Warriors are absolutely locked-in defensively right now. Over their last two games they held L.A. and Denver to a combined 68-for-177 (38.4%) shooting. Meanwhile, despite missing a number of key contributors on any given night, their offense has thrived, knocking down 40+ field goals and scoring 112+ points in six straight games. The Bucks defense is vulnerable right now, having allowed 44, 47, 50, 42 and 43 made field goals over their last five games. In fact, each of their last four opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. While the Milwaukee offense continues to hum along, shooting 50% or better in three straight contests heading into this showdown, I'm anticipating some regression against a revenge-minded Warriors squad here (Milwaukee took the first meeting by 19 points at home in January). Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 227 | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The pace has fallen off considerably in games involving the T'Wolves lately so not surprisingly, we've seen the 'under' go 2-0-1 over their last three games. In its last five contests, Minnesota has yielded opponents 86, 85, 83, 87 and 86 field goal attempts. None of those opponents made more than 40 of their attempts with three reaching 37 or less. It's unlikely we'll see the Heat show much interest in pushing the pace here, noting that they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, and like the T'Wolves, will be on the second of back-to-backs. We did see Miami's game last night go 'over' the total but the pace wasn't necessarily there as the Heat held the Cavs to just 35-of-79 shooting, but shot lights out themselves. The 'under' has cashed in three of Miami's last five games overall. Note that we saw a closing total of just 212.5 in the first meeting between these two teams back in November. That game totalled just 214 points. I believe tonight's adjustment to the total will prove too much. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 223.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached 221 total points back in January and as a result we're dealing with a total right around that number for Saturday's third meeting of the season. Keep in mind, in that most recent matchup the two teams shot the lights out (CLE shot 52% and CHI shot 55%). I don't expect anything of that sort on Saturday. The Cavs have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last six games, even if the pace hasn't necessarily been there. Cleveland had a tough enough time just getting shots off in Miami last night, attempting just 79 field goals, but that game ultimately found its way 'over' the low total. Note that the Cavs have attempted 85 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games and face a Bulls squad that has been doing a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, holding four of their last five opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. In fact, the Bulls have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league lately, with the 'under' going 8-2 over their last 10 contests. Note that Chicago has attempted 88 or fewer field goals in four of its last five games. Cleveland has limited Chicago to 84 and 86 FG attempts in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, the Cavs got off just 80 and 77 FG attempts in those two contests. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Wizards opened their current road trip with a six-point loss against the Clippers two nights ago. They're still a solid 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with their four ATS losses over that stretch coming by a combined seven points. We've seen Washington make a concerted effort, at least seemingly, to slow down opposing offenses recently, limiting nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Wizards last two opponents have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Lakers doing tonight. Offensively, the Wiz have been 'filling it up', knocking down 41, 46, 45 and 41 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all four of those contests. In fact, they've knocked down 40+ field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Here, the Wiz should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a non-existent Lakers defense. Los Angeles has shown no ability (or interest) to slow down opposing offenses, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games (it allows an average of 91 FG attempts per game at home this season). Each of the Lakers last seven opponents have made good on at least 41 field goal attempts, with five of them knocking down 46+. While the Lakers have been doing a solid job of keeping pace, hitting 40+ field goals in four straight games, I'm not convinced the pace will be there for them to reach that number tonight. Note that the Wizards allow an average of 40-of-88 shooting on the road this season. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the T'Wolves are getting nearly the respect they deserve right now. They've reeled off six straight wins, incredibly scoring 124+ points in all six of those games. They've made good on 45+ field goals in five of those six contests, despite the majority of them being played at a reasonably slow pace. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense continues to shine as well, holding four straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts with three of those four opponents knocking down 37 or less and it draws another favorable matchup here. Speaking of favorable matchups - the Magic have benefited from facing the Suns without Chris Paul and Devin Booker and the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram over their last two games. The T'Wolves aren't at full strength but they're getting healthier and again, it hasn't really mattered who they've trotted out on the floor lately, they've found success. Lost in Orlando's recent 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS surge is the fact that it continues to do little to slow opposing offenses down, yielding 90+ FG attempts in five straight and seven of its last eight games. It has been fortunate that the opposition simply hasn't taken advantage of its opportunities on most nights. I expect a different story to unfold here as a revenge-minded T'Wolves squad hangs another crooked number on the board in a convincing win. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
03-10-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Nuggets win in Sacramento last night and also cashed with the Warriors in their most recent game - a victory over the Clippers on Tuesday. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as Golden State and Denver match up for the second time in the last four nights. The Warriors saw their four-game 'over' streak come to an end in that win over the Clippers two nights ago. Interestingly, the pace hadn't necessarily been there during their run of 'overs', allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in six straight games heading into that home date with L.A. The Clippers actually managed to get off 93 FG attempts against them on Tuesday but knocked down only 33 of them. Here, we'll note that Golden State yields just 39-of-86 shooting on the road this season with its games totalling an average of 217.3 points. The Nuggets have held four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and allow an average of only 86 attempts per game at home this season. They've allowed 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games overall with the 'under' going 4-3 along the way. Monday's matchup between these two teams reached a whopping 255 points but that one was played under unique circumstances as the Warriors elected to rest most of their starters and didn't play with a great deal of intensity. Keep in mind, these two teams have been involved in a game that totalled just 175 points this season, so the potential for a low-scoring affair is there despite the lofty total. Note that Monday's game saw a whopping 64 free throw attempts (46 of them made). The two teams average only 40 free throw attempts per game (and make 31 of them). While that doesn't make up for the difference considering the total we're working with here, I do think we'll see a little more defense helping keep this rematch 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Consider this a 'load management' type of game for the Jazz. That doesn't mean that we're going to see them rest starters, certainly not after losing two of their last three games. I'm not just not convinced we're going to see Utah go flat out for four quarters in this one as it should only be a matter of time before it pulls away as a massive favorite against a reeling, injury-riddled Blazers squad. Note that the Jazz are just a day removed from a back-to-back set in Oklahoma City and Dallas and after tonight's game will look ahead to another back-to-back at San Antonio and then back home against Sacramento on Friday and Saturday. While the Jazz offense is terrific, they're not playing at all that fast of a pace, having attempted fewer than 90 field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They average just 86 field goal attempts per game at home this season. After allowing 135 points in the front half of their two-game set in Minnesota, the Blazers did hold the T'Wolves to 38-of-92 shooting in the rematch. Offensively, Portland is a train wreck right now. After a pre-trade deadline fire sale, the Blazers lost a number of key contributors to injury with Anfernee Simons the most recent to go down with a leg injury. Simons might be able to go tonight but I think there's a better chance the Blazers give him another night off in this game they're highly-unlikely to win. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games, reaching just 78 in two of those contests. They've made good on a woeful 31, 34, 30, 40 (in a game where Simons poured in 38 points against Minnesota) and 23 field goals over their last five contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on the heels of consecutive 'over' results. Not surprisingly we're dealing with a very high total for this matchup. I believe it will prove too high. The pace hasn't necessarily been there during Denver's current 3-1 'over' run. The lone game in which it allowed more than 88 field goals over that stretch came in an overtime victory over New Orleans on Sunday (we missed with the 'under' in that game). Note that offensively, the Nuggets have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three consecutive games. Playing their third game in four nights on Wednesday (before returning home to host Golden State for the second time in three nights tomorrow), I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet here. Sacramento has been struggling offensively, at least when it comes to efficiency, as it has made good on 35, 39, 46 and 39 field goals over its last four games. The 46 field goal performance came in a 114-113 loss in Dallas (it's worth noting that final score would have stayed well below the total we're working with tonight). Defensively, the Kings continue to struggle as well, but again I'm just not sure the pace will be there to help this one 'over' the total, noting that seven of Sacramento's last 10 opponents have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That includes two previous matchups with the Nuggets in which Denver attempted 86 and 82 field goals. In all three meetings this season, Denver has totalled 86 FG attempts or less. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans seemingly 'punted' last night's game in Memphis, sitting Brandon Ingram in what turned out to be a blowout loss (we won with the 'over'). Here, I expect a much better performance from New Orleans as it returns home to host Orlando, which is also in a back-to-back spot off a three-point home loss against the Suns last night. Note that the Magic's offense has gone back in the tank, knocking down just 36, 37 and 35 field goals over its last three games despite getting off 95, 86 and 92 field goal attempts in those three contests. Meanwhile, Orlando has shown no ability to control its opponents tempo, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Even without Ingram last night in Memphis, New Orleans stayed reasonably hot offensively, knocking down 41-of-88 FG attempts. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have made good on 47, 52, 50, 48 and 41 field goals. With the Magic projected to allow them to get off 90+ attempts tonight, there's plenty of runway for the improved Pelicans offense to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. On the flip side, New Orleans had been doing a nice job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities up until last night, yielding fewer than 90 FG attempts in six straight games. The Magic have had a tough enough time reaching 100 points when being afforded 90+ attempts. If they can't get close to that many opportunities on Wednesday, they should be in for a long night, noting also that while New Orleans allows 109.5 points per game overall this season, that average drops to 104.0 ppg when coming off two or more consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Clippers v. Warriors -6.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors have somewhat quietly dropped five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall, including a 131-124 loss in Denver last night. Of course that loss on Monday was to be expected as they rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Here, I look for a big response in the Warriors first game back home following a four-game road trip. They dropped their last game on this floor, blowing a big lead against the Mavericks, who are playing some of the best basketball of any team in the NBA right now. The Clippers are not in that same vein, coming off a 116-93 drubbing at home against the Knicks on Sunday. They've allowed their last two opponents - two struggling teams at that in the Lakers and Knicks - to knock down 41 and 42 field goals despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They'll without question have their hands full against a revenge-minded Warriors squad that even without a number of key contributors still made good on 45-of-88 FG attempts and poured in 124 points in Denver last night. While Golden State has been giving up plenty of points during its current skid, there are positives to take away as it has held all six opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts since the All-Star break. The opposition isn't going to continue to knock down its shots at such a clip as we've seen, noting that Golden State has allowed an average of 37-for-87 (42.2%) shooting at home this season. Take Golden State (9*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pelicans overtime loss in Denver two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday and back the 'over' as they wrap up their brief two-game road trip in Memphis. New Orleans is undoubtedly 'feeling it' right now, as evidenced by it hoisting up 92+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games, entering this contest on the heels of four straight games scoring 123+ points. The Pelicans will need every bit of that offensive production if they want to contend with the Grizzlies here. Memphis checks in off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Rockets two nights ago. The Grizz continued to force the issue offensively in that one, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts, marking the fifth time in the last seven games they attempted at least 92 field goals. I do think they're catching the Pelicans at the right time here. New Orleans was always bound for some regression defensively after an incredible run coming out of the break and we saw just that on Sunday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 47-of-87 (54%) from the field in a 138-point effort (boosted by overtime, mind you). The Grizzlies come into this game having hit at least 42 field goals in five straight games and have scored 107+ points in an incredible 17 straight games. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Note that in their most recent matchup on February 15th, we saw 230 total points despite New Orleans shooting a miserable 4-of-26 from three-point range. The Pelicans will no doubt improve on that performance here, helping this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Nets on the heels of four straight losses including Sunday's 126-120 loss in a nationally-televised matinee affair in Boston. Kevin Durant is still saying the right things (he of course recently returned from injury) and I don't think the Nets are hitting the panic button by any means, even as they continue to fall in the Eastern Conference standings. With a tough matchup with the 76ers on deck in Philadelphia, getting a win here is of critical importance. Note that the Nets have knocked down 42 and 45 field goals in their last two road games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of those contests. Also on a positive note, the Nets have held their last two opponents to just 77 and 83 FG attempts. The Heat and Celtics simply shot the lights out in those two contests. I'm not anticipating the same type of offensive performance from Charlotte here. The Hornets are off consecutive wins but they've been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that they've allowed seven of their last nine opponents to get off 90+ FG attempts and if that happens tonight, as it likely will, the Nets offense should be able to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. While laying almost a handful of points on the road is certainly a concern, the Nets have managed to go a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven victories with five of those seven wins coming away from home (not surprisingly as Kyrie Irving is only available to the team for road games not played in New York). Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We just saw a track meet between these two teams two nights ago on this floor as the T'Wolves rolled to a 135-121 victory. Minnesota is on an incredible offensive run right now, having scored 127+ points in four straight games. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries - too many to mention. With that in mind, I'm not convinced either will be interested in another track meet on Monday. Note that the Blazers have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, they've gotten off 85 or less FG attempts themselves in four of their last five contests, held to 34 or fewer made field goals in three of those games. As I mentioned, the T'Wolves are on a scoring tear and have seen the 'over' cash in five straight games. The pace of play doesn't necessarily bear it out, however, noting that Minnesota has held four of its last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. It has actually done a nice job defensively at home all season, giving up an average of just 38 made field goals per game on just north of 43% shooting. I expect this lofty total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers most recent game on Saturday in Miami with that result snapping their streak of six straight 'overs'. I believe the total will prove too high once again on Monday as the Sixers return home to host the reeling Bulls. Chicago desperately needs to stop the bleeding, having lost four straight games. The turnaround needs to start at the defensive end of the floor as they check in having allowed 112+ points in each of those four losses. Note that Chicago has allowed just 107.5 points per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons with those games totalling an average of 219.1 points. Note that despite allowing a boatload of points, the Bulls have done a better job of keeping their opponents scoring opportunities in check over the last three games, allowing 81, 84 and 88 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had allowed 90+ FG attempts in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, the Bulls have shot the lights out over their last three games; 49%, 59% and 50%, respectively. I don't expect that to continue against a Sixers defense that has allowed fewer than 40 made field goals and less than 90 FG attempts in four of their last five games. Prior to Saturday's loss, Philadelphia had scored 123+ points in five straight games. Its pace certainly didn't support those gawdy point totals, noting that it got off 82 or fewer FG attempts in four of those five contests. Regression caught up with the Sixers on Saturday (I realize James Harden sat that game out, a key contributing factor as well) as they scored just 82 points on 34% shooting. While the 'over' has cashed in two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, none of those games went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We've been riding the 'under' in Pelicans games since the All-Star break, cashing all three of our plays including in their last game as they dispatched the Jazz in stunning fashion in a 124-90 victory, easily cruising 'under' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 with the Pelicans installed as a road underdog of six points or less this season, as is the case here (that situation has produced an average total of 209.2 points). Interestingly, in nine previous instances where the Pelicans have played on the road following consecutive home games, they've averaged only 102.0 points per game (compared to their season road scoring average of 104.6 points per game). The 'under' has gone 8-1 in that spot with an average total of just 207.6 points. Save for two offensive explosions against awful defensive opponents in the Kings and Blazers, the Nuggets have only been average offensively since the break. In five games since the break, they've reached 90 field goal attempts only once and that came in a game where they were in comeback mode in en eventual loss against the Thunder. The good news is, their defense has held up well, allowing 38 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans are as locked in at that end of the floor as any team in the league right now, having yielded 36 or fewer made field goals on less than 90 field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 over that stretch. The 'over' has cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams this season but only one of those games surpassed the total we're working with here (both teams shot better than 51% in that matchup back in early December). Note that six of nine meetings in this series over the last three seasons have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We came close to playing the 'under' in the Warriors most recent game but wisely laid off as that contest soared 'over' the total in Dallas. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the Warriors head to Los Angeles to face the reeling Lakers. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Mavs two nights ago but both teams shot the lights out in a game that ultimately totalled 235 points. Having allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, I look for a strong response from the Golden State defense in this one. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in off an embarrassing loss to the rival Clippers on Thursday. Like the Warriors, they've also allowed three consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. At the other end of the court they've had a difficult enough time running their offense let alone scoring. They're just two games removed from a 95-point effort here at home against the Pelicans. They did shoot just shy of 49% from the field against the Clippers last time out but that was a game that warranted little intensity with the outcome never really in doubt as the Clips cruised to a 21-point victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-12 with the Warriors coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 218.6 points. The 'under' is 39-23 with the Lakers seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
03-05-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 221 | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the 76ers come-from-behind win over the Cavs last night - a game that somewhat surprisingly got into the 240's. Philadelphia once again shot the lights out in that contest, actually getting off only 75 field goal attempts but knocking down 41 of them in the win. Here, I expect the Sixers to face a lot more resistance against a Heat defense that allows opponents to shoot just 37-of-83 on average at home this season. Like the Sixers, the Heat shot exceptionally well in their most recent game, knocking down 40-of-77 shots in a road win over Brooklyn. That game still ultimately stayed 'under' the total and the 'under' has now cashed in seven of Miami's last 12 games overall. Note that these two teams have met twice previously this season. On both occasions one of the two squads was held under 100 points. Those two contests totalled just 197 and 207 points yet we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total for this one. Recency bias is certainly at play, too much so in my opinion. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns most recent game - a 120-90 win over the Blazers two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Friday, however, as Phoenix hosts the reeling Knicks. New York has essentially stopped playing defense entirely, checking in having allowed 111 points or more in 11 consecutive games. The Knicks are coming off consecutive matchups with the 76ers with Philadelphia putting up 125 and 123 points without hardly breaking a sweat. Philadelphia actually let up in those two contests, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals, yet still managed to get well north of 120 points in both games. While the Suns are without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, they're still capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard against bad defensive teams, as they showed in scoring 120 points against Portland on Wednesday. Note that Cam Payne made his return to the lineup in that game and while he contributed only five points, he was a difference-maker in 20 minutes of action, dishing out eight assists in the victory. I look for the Suns to continue to force the issue here without Booker and Paul, with consecutive home losses against the Pelicans and Jazz still fresh in their minds. While the Knicks aren't stopping anyone right now, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 100 or more points in 13 consecutive games. The duo of Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to pad their stats on a nightly basis. They put up 108 points against a good Sixers defense despite getting only three points on 1-of-8 shooting from Evan Fournier two nights ago. Fournier is a streaky shooter but generally bounces back from bad performances. Just two games ago he shot 9-of-16 from the field in a 24-point effort. The Suns are a quality defensive team and allow just 105.6 points per game on the season, however they've given up 110.9 points per game when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at a 23-12 clip in that spot. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-04-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | 90-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Jazz have seen their last three games fly 'over' the total the Pelicans check in off of three consecutive 'under' results. We actually won with the 'under' in New Orleans' most recent game - a blowout victory over the Kings two nights ago. This is a game where I look for the Jazz to 'manage' proceedings in some sense after an overtime game in Houston and in the midst of a brutal stretch that sees them play at least every other day from now through April 2nd. That's right, Utah won't enjoy consecutive days off until April 3rd and 4th. So on the heels of three consecutive wild, tightly-contested, dare I say energy-draining wins coming out of the All-Star break, I'm expecting Utah to take a more measured approach to this winnable road game. I call it a 'winnable' game as let's face it, they all are for a team as talented as the Jazz. With that being said, the Pelicans should offer some resistance as they come in playing exceptionally well, winners of three straight games coming out of the break. They've held four of their last nine opponents to fewer than 100 points (that's a considerable accomplishment by today's NBA standards). Each of their last four opponents have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The pace of the Pelicans most recent game against Sacramento didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result (they put up 125 points on 88 FG attempts) but they shot the lights out, knocking down 59.1% of their attempts. I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance here as Utah hasn't allowed more than 88 FG attempts in any of its last seven games and should bounce back defensively after yielding 50%+ shooting in each of its last two contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have now seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total. It's not a sustainable run in my opinion, especially considering the pace they've been playing at. Note that Philadelphia's last three 'over' results have had more to do with the inept nature of their opponent's defense than anything else (T'Wolves and two against the Knicks). The Sixers have actually attempted 82 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Over that stretch they had one game where they only hit 23 of them. They also enter this game having held each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Now they host a slumping Cavs squad that has scored fewer than 100 points in three of their last six games. We can anticipate Cleveland at least playing with some purpose defensively off consecutive losses, more than we could say for the Sixers last three opponents. Note that Cleveland has limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. These two teams just met back on February 12th and the game totalled only 196 points. The Sixers didn't have James Harden for that one and while he's certainly a difference-maker, I'm not convinced the big adjustment to the total is warranted (that game saw a closing total of 210.5). Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams since the start of February and while I often suggest that familiarity lends itself to lower-scoring basketball, I don't believe that will be the case in this particular spot. The Lakers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, helping keep this number in check on Thursday. Keep in mind, we're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the most recent meeting between these two L.A. rivals just a week ago. The Clippers check in off three consecutive 'under' results. With that being said, they've actually been allowing opponents to get out and run, with each of their last five opponents getting off at least 90 field goal attempts. The fact that three of their last four games have come against the lowly Rockets has certainly contributed to their recent run of low-scoring games in my opinion. The last time these two teams met the Lakers got off 93 field goal attempts but knocked down less than 42% of them. I do look for them to improve on that shooting percentage here. What I'm not sure they can fix in short order is their defense, or lack thereof. The Lakers have yielded 40+ made field goals in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 43, 48, 40, 51, 41, 34 and 42 field goals in their last seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-5 with the Clips playing at home off a road win over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 226.2 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 with the Clippers coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 235.7 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings loss in New Orleans last night. We also won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a loss in Memphis on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the two teams meet up in San Antonio. Neither of these teams are playing a lick of defense right now. The Kings have allowed four of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, giving up 40 or more field goals in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Spurs have been even worse. Their last three opponents have knocked down 59, 47 and 48 field goals, all shooting better than 53% from the field. Offensively, the Spurs continue to roll, having put up 105 points or more in seven straight games, eclipsing the 120-point mark in four of those contests. While the Kings have hit a bit of a lull and were held under 100 points last night, I don't think they'll need to be coerced into getting involved in a track meet here. Prior to last night's game, Sacramento had scored 110+ points in four consecutive games. While we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the two previous matchups between these two teams this season, I believe the adjustment is warranted. Note that the last time these two squared off in San Antonio, they combined to score 253 points back in November. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). | |||||||
03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). | |||||||
02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Nets and Bucks on Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Nets are coming off yet another loss, this time in blowout fashion at home against the Celtics on Thursday. Boston barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that contest so I shudder at the thought of what the Bucks, who haven't played since the All-Star break, will be able to do on Saturday night. Incredible, seven of the Nets last nine opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. The good news is, they're back on the road, where they of course have the much-needed services of Kyrie Irving to at least attempt to keep pace. Note that Brooklyn is averaging 113.2 points per game on the road this season, nearly three points north of its season scoring average. While the Bucks should be able to score at will in this game, I question whether they'll be able to stop Brooklyn. Note that Milwaukee's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, scoring 131, 122, 119 and 123 points over its last four games. In fact, the Bucks have given up 108+ points in seven straight games. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met back in January, the Nets were at home and didn't have Kyrie Irving. They still scored 109 points despite shooting a woeful 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. They average double that - 12 made threes per game - on the road this season. For their part, the Bucks have allowed 14 made three-pointers per contest here at home this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Celtics v. Nets +8 | 129-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams are at somewhat opposite ends of the spectrum given the current state of affairs for the Nets with Kevin Durant injured, Kyrie Irving unable to suit up in the state of New York and Ben Simmons still working his way back, I simply feel that the Celtics are being asked to lay too many points in this first game back out of the All-Star break. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 10-22 ATS when coming off four or five ATS wins over its last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that spot. That situation has come up 16 times previously this season, and the Celtics have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 points. While the Nets are a woeful 4-12 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, they've actually managed to outscore opponents by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Note that they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.1 points on 40 previous occasions where they've come off four or five losses over their last six games over the last three seasons. Again, I simply feel the C's are laying a few too many in this spot. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Team Durant v. Team LeBron OVER 320.5 | 160-163 | Win | 100 | 58 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Team Lebron and Team Durant at 8 pm et on Sunday. I would recommend jumping on this play early as the total is only going to rise leading up to tipoff on Sunday. Last year's All-Star Game actually totalled only 320 points. In fact, since the format changed to Team Lebron vs. Team 'insert name here', we've only seen one of four games go 'over' the total we're working with this year. I believe we're going to see a throwback to the games of 2016 and 2017, when we saw point totals up around 370 points. The talent on these two rosters is incredible (I don't need to tell you that). I also think we have two squads more than willing to push the pace at every opportunity. Team Lebron is favored for a reason. The mix of scorers and distributors should make for some very appealing offensive basketball. With that being said, you can be sure guys like Ja Morant, Trae Young and Devin Booker will ball out on the other side and should be able to keep within arm's reach all night long. I have this one soaring 'over' the total - always nice to make a little money if we're going to sit down and watch a glorified exhibition game in the middle of February. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-17-22 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 224.5 | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks enter this game on the heels of six consecutive 'over' results while the Sixers are fresh off a high-scoring game of their own - an unthinkable 135-87 blowout loss at home against Boston. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-11 with the Sixers having lost four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 210.0 points. Better still, the 'under' is 17-4 when Philadelphia checks in off five or six ATS losses in its last seven contests over the same stretch, leading to an average total of only 207.7 points scored in that situation. As for the Bucks, they've seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip when coming off two losses in their last three games this season, producing an average total of 213.3 points. In the rest of their games, the Bucks have posted a 23-16 o/u mark. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Pistons v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Celtics are arguably the hottest team in the league right now and enter this game off a 135-87 drubbing of the Sixers in Philadelphia last night. With this being their last game prior to the All-Star break, I expect them to 'manage' proceedings wisely. Yes, last night's 135-point outburst was impressive but let's face it, the Sixers simply didn't show up, essentially laying down after falling behind early. Offensively explosions like that haven't been commonplace for the C's. They did have another similar performance in Brooklyn last week but followed it up by scoring just 108 and 105 points during a brief two-game homestand. Boston has actually been a slightly lower-scoring team at home compared to only the road this season, averaging 108.1 points per game. The 'under' is 18-12 at TD Garden this season with an average total of just 210.8 points. As for the Pistons, they managed to score only 94 points against a struggling Wizards squad last time out. They're just three games removed from scoring 86 points in a lopsided loss in Dallas and put up only 93 points at home against these same Celtics back on February 4th (that game totalled only 195 points). They've shot sub-38% in three of their last six games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-21 with the Pistons seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with the Celtics coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 203.2 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 223.5 | 96-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The last time we saw these two teams meet they combined to score just 195 points, staying well below the closing total of 222. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around, largely due to the Suns recent high-scoring results. In fact, the 'over' is 4-0 in the Suns last four games and has cashed in six of their last seven contests overall. I'm not convinced that's a sustainable trend when you consider the 'under' is still 28-27-1 in all Suns games this season with an average total of 219.1 points scored. The Clippers are coming off a relatively high-scoring game of their own last night against Golden State (we missed cashing our 'under' ticket by a single point). The 'over' has now come through in six of their last seven games as well. After shooting better than 52% in consecutive games, I look for the Clippers offense to come back to Earth in this back-to-back spot, as they continue to play without newly-acquired Norm Powell, and could miss Luke Kennard again as well. Last night we saw Tre Mann go off for the Clips, pacing their 119-point outburst. Keep in mind, that was their highest point total since back on January 19th. They average just 105.6 points per game on the road this season, where the 'under' has gone 15-13-1. The Suns have done a terrific job of smothering opposing offenses lately, holding seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The Clippers don't play at all that quick of a tempo to begin with and I certainly don't anticipate them shooting the lights out against a Suns squad that limits opponents to 105.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting at home this season. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Hornets v. Wolves UNDER 243.5 | 120-126 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game features one of the highest posted totals in the NBA this season. I believe it will prove too high. The Hornets enter this game off consecutive 'over' results. Their last game against the Grizzlies on Saturday only crept 'over' the total thanks to Memphis carrying a 31-point lead into halftime and then essentially laying down defensively in the second half, allowing Charlotte to score a whopping 75 points. I'm certainly expecting a more competitive affair between these two relatively evenly-matched teams tonight. Despite those to recent 'over' results, the 'under' remains 18-8 in the Hornets last 26 games. The T'Wolves are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring four-game road trip, with the 'over' cashing in all four of those games. Here, we have a 'catalyst for change' as Minnesota returns home, where it has played to considerably lower-scoring results with the 'under' cashing at a 15-11 clip. In fact, the T'Wolves average 4.1 points per game below their season scoring average while allowing 6.5 ppg less here at home. Their home games have averaged a total of just 214.4 points. It's also worth noting that the 'under' has gone 9-1 in the Hornets last 10 games played on two days' rest going back to last season, with that spot producing an average total of just 108.5 points. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are absolutely rolling right now, winners of eight games in a row, going 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Keep in mind, they were favored by at least six points in all eight of those contests. They'll face their toughest challenge in weeks on Tuesday night, as they go up against a rested 76ers squad that hasn't taken the floor since posting an impressive double-digit win over the Cavs on Saturday night. It seems as though the Philadelphia bandwagon was cleared thanks to last week's home loss to the Suns. That's not to mention the fact that James Harden remains sidelined after coming over in last week's blockbuster trade with the Nets. Note that Boston is just 13-15 SU on the road this season, including a 111-99 loss here in Philadelphia back in mid-January - a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The 76ers are a modest 16-12 at home this season but have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points per game. Here, we'll note that Boston is a woeful 5-16 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in that spot. Philadelphia on the other hand has gone a terrific 40-26 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-14-22 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I'm not convinced either of these teams want to get involved in a track meet on Monday night. The Warriors will be playing for the fourth time in the last six nights after dropping two of their last three games. The 'over' has cashed in their last two contests as they uncharacteristically struggled to contain the Knicks and Lakers offenses, allowing 116 and 115 points. Here, they'll catch the Clippers just one day removed from a hard-fought 99-97 win in Dallas to snap a three-game skid. L.A. isn't going to be at full strength for this game with newly-acquired Norman Powell sidelined due to a toe injury and Luke Kennard questionable to play as well. Note that the 'under' has gone 18-8 with the Warriors coming off an ATS loss this season with those games totalling an average of just 209.3 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the 'under' cash at a 14-4 clip after losing three of their last four games ATS this season, resulting in an average total of just 205.2 points in that spot. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Magic v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 105-132 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Orlando's loss in Utah last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Phoenix is coming off three straight 'over' results including a 131-107 win over the Bucks in an NBA Finals rematch on Thursday. I expect to see the Suns use this matchup to catch their break, to to speak, following a stretch of five games in eight nights (in five different cities). After this contest, Phoenix will get a couple of days off before a back-to-back set against the Clippers and Rockets. Orlando has now been held under 100 points in two of its last three games and doesn't figure to show much improvement against a terrific defensive opponent here, especially considering it will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights (in four different cities). While Orlando has allowed 110.7 points per game on the road this season, it has actually given up just 105.2 points per contest when playing away from home after losing three of its last four games ATS, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 212.8 total points (10-game sample size). Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We settled for a push with the Clippers in the front half of this two-game set in Dallas. We were somewhat fortunate as the Clips trailed that game virtually the entire way and Luka Doncic went off for 51 points. Here, I'm confident in Los Angeles' ability to make the necessary adjustments and close the gap in a quick rematch on Saturday. Despite Doncic's incredible performance, there actually wasn't all that much separating the two teams on Thursday. Dallas knocked down four more threes (on 16 more attempts) and also made good on five more free throws. Note that the Clippers are a terrific 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points on average in that situation. In 35 previous occasions where Dallas played at home off an ATS win over the last two seasons, it has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. After allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest this season, the Mavs have outscored opponents by just 1.2 points on average (30-game sample size). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-11-22 | Magic v. Jazz UNDER 222.5 | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. With a four-game winning streak intact and fresh off a 26-point rout of the Warriors two nights ago, I see this as a game we see the Jazz 'manage' on Friday night at home against the lowly Magic. Orlando checks in off a blowout win in Portland. Keep in mind, that victory came after the Blazers dealt C.J. McCollum among others earlier in the day. While the Magic scored 113 points in that victory, they're just a game removed from an 83-point effort against the Celtics. I expect them to have a tough time scoring against a Jazz squad that is locked in defensively, having held their last three opponents to 41%, 38% and 36% shooting. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 207 points in an upset victory by the Magic in Orlando. That game saw a closing total of 211 points. I simply feel too much of an adjustment has been made here. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 107-131 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winners of four straight games both SU and ATS, scoring 130+ points in each of their last three contests. Ordinarily, I might look to fade a team on such a run but not in this spot as Milwaukee wraps up its four-game road trip with a game it will have no difficulty getting up for against the team in defeated in last year's NBA Finals - the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing well. They've lost just one game going all the way back to January 11th. With that being said, they're just an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bucks might be without Grayson Allen for this game after he suffered a hip injury but the Suns continue to play on without underrated contributor Cam Payne as well. While the Bucks might be a little road weary at the end of this trip, the Suns will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Phoenix is obviously one of the best teams in the league - at times THE best team in the league this season. However, the Bucks found a way to make the Suns look very ordinary in reeling off four straight wins (after falling behind 2-0) in last year's Finals. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 7.6 points this season. However, it has only outscored opponents by 4.4 points on average when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Bucks have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play having averaged 120.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points when coming off consecutive double-digit victories over the last three seasons (48-game sample size). Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers limp into this game off back-to-back losses but there's no need to push the panic button as those two losses came against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks and Grizzlies. L.A. has now dropped the cash in four straight games but I believe that's affording us a very generous helping of points with it as it heads to Dallas to face the surging Mavs on Thursday. Dallas has won three games in a row, both SU and ATS, including a 30-point rout of the Pistons last time out. Here, we'll note that Jason Kidd has not fared well in this situation over the course of his head coaching career, with his teams going 16-33 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins, outscored by an average of 4.4 points in that situation. The Clippers meanwhile, are 36-21 ATS when playing on the road off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Better still, they're 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of their last five games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points in that situation. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season. I believe the Mavs are simply laying too many points in this spot. Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz have reeled off three straight wins on their current homestand but can't afford to let their guard down after they had lost 11 of their previous 13 contests. The Warriors, on the other hand, can afford to 'manage' things on a game-to-game basis and will once again sit Klay Thompson for this front half of a back-to-back set at the Jazz and back home against the Knicks. Remember, one week ago tonight the Warriors rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, essentially 'punting' the game against the Spurs but San Antonio was extremely forgiving, coughing up a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a four-point loss. I don't expect the Jazz to be nearly as forgiving on Wednesday. Utah has been one of the most streaky teams in the league from an ATS perspective in recent years and checks into this one having gone 18-7 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that spot. The Jazz have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a tough 94-92 decision in San Francisco back on January 23rd. Utah could have certainly used Donovan Mitchell in that game. In two games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell has contributed 59 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists in just 56 minutes of action. The Warriors have actually taken both previous meetings in this series this season and four in a row going back to last season. That sort of run of success in this series hasn't been common, however. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Golden State won five straight matchups against the Jazz, and that included a four-game series sweep in the playoffs. Look for Utah to get back at the Warriors on Wednesday. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
02-08-22 | Pistons v. Mavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think a lot of bettors are rushing to back the 'over' in this low-key Tuesday non-conference affair. With that being said, I love the way the situation sets up. The Mavs have let their defense do the talking in their last two games, holding the 76ers and Hawks under 100 points in fairly comfortable victories. Here, I think Dallas will need its offense to do some of the heavy-lifting, noting that the Pistons have actually scored over 100 points in nine of their last 10 games, employing an up-tempo style, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games. Keep in mind, Detroit scored 117 and 105 points in a pair of matchups with Dallas last year with both of those contests flying 'over' the total. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 21-11 with Detroit coming off a game in which it scored 105 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 219.1 points. Better still, the 'over' is 12-4 with the Pistons off consecutive games scoring 105 points or less, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. As for the Mavs, the 'over' is a long-term 70-45 when they come off consecutive home victories, which is also the case tonight. The Mavs haven't been forced to play on consecutive nights since January 29th and 30th and inexplicably won't do so against until the third week of March. In other words, there's no need for them to 'manage' this game in the same way the Warriors did last night (as I noted in my analysis of that play on the GS-OKC 'under'). While Dallas is missing some key contributors, including Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr., it has still managed to score more than 100 points in six straight games. It's worth mentioning that the Mavs are also without one of their best defensive players in Maxi Kleber. The Pistons aren't slowing anyone down these days, allowing over 100 points in 12 consecutive contests and will be hard-pressed to improve on last year's two performances against Dallas in which they gave up 127 and 115 points. Finally, I'll note that the 'over' is 4-1 with the Pistons playing on the road off consecutive 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-07-22 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 212 | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. This is a game that Golden State can and likely will 'manage' as it begins a stretch of three games in four nights (in three different cities) between now and Thursday. The Warriors have been lighting it up offensively but actually check in having allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Considering they've only allowed four opponents to shoot better than 50% all season, that's notable. What better opponent to button things up defensively against than Oklahoma City? The Thunder have been held under 100 points in five of their last nine games overall and average just a shade over the century mark in terms of points per game at home this season. Oklahoma City is at home playing its third game in four nights tonight and doing so without a number of key contributors with the most notable being Shae Gilgeous-Alexander. Lu Dort remains questionable to play due to a nasal fracture but it does sound more likely that he'll be able to go. Nevertheless, the Warriors have held the Thunder to just 98 and 82 points in two previous meetings this season. In fact, they've held the Thunder under 100 points in four straight meetings in this series. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-14 with Golden State in the role of favorite this season and 32-15 in its last 47 games when playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-17 when the Thunder seek revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
02-06-22 | Pistons +12 v. Wolves | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pistons losers of three games in a row (1-2 ATS) and the T'Wolves having won three straight (3-0 ATS) including a 128-117 win in Detroit on Thursday. Keep in mind, that meeting was closer than the final score indicated as the Pistons were actually within five points with less than a minute remaining. Here, we'll note that Detroit checks in a highly-profitable 26-13 ATS off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons while Minnesota is 11-23 ATS at home against non-conference opponents over the last three seasons and 25-40 ATS in their last 65 games following a win. Take Detroit (9*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Bucks v. Blazers OVER 227.5 | 137-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss at home against the Thunder last night. The pace was absolutely there, however, noting that Portland got off a whopping 101 field goal attempts in that contest (while allowing 87). The Blazers know they're going to have to step it up offensively tonight if they want to have any chance of keeping up with the Bucks. Portland has now been held under 100 points in three consecutive games but still averages 111 points per game at home this season (four points per game above its season average). Keep in mind, in two meetings between these teams last season, the Bucks hung 134 and 127 points on the board. After a stretch that saw it held to under 100 points in four of eight games, the Bucks have now reached the century mark in three straight. Note that the 'over' has gone 38-23 and the Bucks have averaged 115.9 points per game when playing on the road off an 'under' result over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 18-6 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 231.6 points, even including last night's low-scoring result. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Thunder v. Kings OVER 216.5 | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'over' in the Thunder's 96-93 win in Portland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. The pace was there but neither the Thunder or Blazers shot well in last night's game. In fact, both teams shot sub-40% from the field. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. The Thunder are going to need to perform better offensively if they want to secure a third straight win as the Kings have scored 112 and 114 points over their last two games, most recently shooting north of 52% in a tough road game at Golden State on Thursday (we won with the 'over' in that game). On the flip side, the Kings have allowed at least 103 points in 18 consecutive games. Even with the Thunder's flaws offensively (noting they're without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander), they should benefit from facing a Sacramento squad that allows just under 112 points per game at home this season. Considering Kings home games have averaged 221.6 total points this season and four meetings between these two teams here since the start of 2020 have totalled 220, 224, 228 and 228 points, I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-04-22 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Monday night in Oklahoma City with the Thunder rolling to a 98-81 victory - one of the lowest-scoring games for both teams this season. I expect a much different story to unfold on Friday night in Portland, however. Oklahoma City continues to play on without Shae Gilgeous-Alexander among others, but it does bring some confidence to the table off consecutive wins over the Blazers and Mavs. While the Thunder did hold Portland to just 81 points earlier this week, they've proven to be a considerably weaker defensive team on the road, where they allow 2.3 points per game above their season average and have had no luck controlling tempo, allowing opponents to get off an average of 93 field goal attempts per game away from home. In Monday's matchup, Portland knocked down just 7-of-38 three-point attempts and got to the free throw line only eight times. Perhaps that sleepy performance shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was playing the second of back-to-backs after a wild 130-116 loss in Chicago the night previous. A return home should help the Blazers cause, noting they average 3.5 points per game above their season average and make good on an average of 15 threes while getting to the free throw line 23 times per contest. Those are far more encouraging numbers than what we saw in OKC on Monday. The Thunder are undermanned right now but I'm confident guys like Lu Dort, Tre Mann and Josh Giddey can continue to pick up the slack. While the Blazers have held consecutive opponents under 100 points, that could be chalked up as an anomaly as they had given up over 100 points in 10 of their previous 11 games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-5 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average of 233.4 points. The 'over' is also 24-11 with Portland seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 231.2 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-04-22 | Nets v. Jazz OVER 228.5 | 102-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets are coming off an ugly loss in Sacramento two nights ago as their woes continued on their current trip, which has seen them go 0-3 so far, part of a six-game skid overall. In that loss, James Harden shot 2-of-11 from the field and didn't get to the free throw line a single time. For his part, Kyrie Irving scored only 14 points. It was a generally lackadaisical offensive effort from Brooklyn, which hoisted up only 25 three-point attempts (it averages 32 attempts per game on the road this season) and got to the charity stripe just 14 times (it averages 21 attempts per game on the road this season). The Nets know they'll need to go on the attack and ramp up their offensive production if they want to have any hope of tasting victory on Friday. That's because their defense has incredibly allowed 100 points or more in 27 straight games. While the offense, or lack thereof, has been taking a lot of the heat lately, Brooklyn hasn't played a lick of defense on this trip (you could make the argument it held up ok at Golden State - notably without James Harden in the lineup), allowing 110, 121 and 112 points. Utah has had its share of struggles lately as well but snapped a five-game losing streak with a 108-104 win over Denver two nights ago and now it is expected to get Donovan Mitchell back after he missed time due to a concussion. After being held under 100 points in four of eight games, the Jazz have now put up 109, 106 and 108 points over their last three contests and I look for them to improve on those numbers here. Last time out against Denver, Utah scored 108 points despite shooting an ugly 7-of-29 from beyond the arc (it averages 15 made threes per game at home this season). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-5 with the Nets coming off an outright loss as a road favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 235.8 points. The 'over' is 12-2 with the Jazz playing at home off a win this season, leading to an average total of 232.8 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Kings v. Warriors OVER 223.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors are absolutely rolling offensively right now. Even last time out, in a game in which they sat Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, they still managed to post a 30+ point fourth quarter in a stunning 124-120 win over a full strength Spurs squad (we unfortunately lost with San Antonio +2.5 after playing it before the news of Curry and Wiggins' absence came out). Here, there's little reason to expect anything other than an offensive onslaught against a Kings squad playing the second of back-to-backs and for the third time in four nights, in three different cities. Note that the Kings have allowed over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. They did manage to upset the Nets at home last night, however, and should carry some confidence into this one as a result. For their part, the Warriors have scored 130, 124, 110, 122 and 124 points over their lats five games, clearly benefiting from Klay Thompson shaking off the rust, and the re-emergence of Andrew Wiggins as a go-to scorer. On the flip side, Golden State has now given up over 100 points in four straight games. This will be a rematch of a mid-December meeting between these two teams that went the way of the Warriors 113-98. Note that the 'over' is 36-23 with the Kings seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 234.1 points. The 'over' is also 33-18 with the Kings coming off six or seven losses in their last eight games over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 231.0 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers -154 | 110-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Clippers moneyline over the Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers prevailed by a 99-94 score over the Trail Blazers last night. That sets them up in poor position here, noting that they've gone a miserable 6-16 ATS after an ATS win this season, outscored by 4.5 points on average in that spot. Worse still, they're 4-16 ATS after giving up 95 points or less in their previous game over the last two seasons. The Clippers betting bandwagon was cleared after a six-point loss in Indiana to wrap up a long eight-game road trip on Monday. By all accounts, it was a successful trip as the Clips went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS. Los Angeles hasn't suffered consecutive ATS losses since January 13th and 15th. While it sounds like Anthony Davis will play for the Lakers on Thursday, the fact is he hasn't played in a back-to-back since mid-November. Lebron James is questionable at best to play on Thursday. Noting that the Clips are 23-11 ATS after a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and have owned the Lakers, going a perfect 4-0 in this series since the start of last season, we'll back the home side to take this one straight-up. Take the Clippers moneyline (6*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Teams don't have an easy time getting up for trip to Detroit to face the lowly Pistons. That's a big reason why Detroit has managed to hang tough at home, going 13-11 ATS, outscored by just 4.5 points on average despite dropping 16 of 24 games SU. Since the beginning of January alone, the Pistons have defeated the likes of the Spurs, Jazz, Raptors and Cavs while also taking the Nuggets down to the wire in a five-point loss. For Minnesota, the situation is compounded by the fact that it is coming off consecutive home wins over the Nuggets and Jazz. While the T'Wolves are 15-10 SU at home this season, they've gone just 11-15 on the road, outscored by 1.0 point per game along the way. Here, we'll note that they're just 17-29 ATS when coming off a win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average of 1.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 25-12 ATS when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and also 40-24 ATS after scoring 105 points or less over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -10 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for the 76ers as they look to avenge a 117-98 loss in Washington on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (we won with the Wizards in that game). Washington is in the second of back-to-backs after fading late in a 14-point loss in Washington last night. The Wizards scored just 98 points in that game despite getting a season-high 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting from Montresz Harrell off the bench. Already without Bradley Beal, the Wiz also lost Thomas Bryant in that game. Bryant isn't generally a major factor but he does eat 15-20 minutes per game and did contribute 15 points in Washington's win over Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers managed to outlast the Grizzlies here on Monday, despite giving Joel Embiid the night off. Embiid should be back for this one. Note that while Philadelphia has scored over 100 points in seven straight games, Washington has been held under the century mark in three of its last four and things aren't likely to improve until Bradley Beal can return. Prior to that sleepy matinee affair in Washington on MLK Day, the Sixers had put up 117, 129, 114, 132, 120, 125, 127 and 141 points in their previous eight meetings with the Wizards. Note that the Wiz have given up an average of 120.8 points when playing the second of back-to-back road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs essentially 'punted' Sunday's game in Phoenix, sitting Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, yet still managed to give the Suns a serious run in an eventual five-point loss. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, with the Warriors in a back-to-back spot off a double-digit win in Houston. Klay Thompson won't play on Tuesday. The Warriors have played at least every other day since January 9th so it's obviously been a bit of a grueling schedule. As much as they would like to get some revenge for an earlier home loss against the Spurs, I'm not convinced we'll see them go 'flat out' in this one. While the Spurs are just 10-16 at home this season, they've actually outscored their opponents by 0.7 points on average. Having faced the Grizzlies, Bulls and Suns over their last three games, the Spurs are certainly battle-tested heading into this one. I look for them to give the Warriors all they can handle on Tuesday. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
01-31-22 | Kings +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 96-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Kings have endured a miserable road trip so far, losing all four games, but managing to go 2-2 ATS. They enter Monday's game on a season-long six-game losing streak but I fully expect them to hang tough against the struggling Knicks in this one. Keep in mind, Sacramento has taken quality opponents in the Bucks and most recently the 76ers down to the wire on this trip. Here, they catch a Knicks squad that has lost six of its last seven games, going 1-2 SU and ATS as a favorite over that stretch. On nine previous occasions, the Kings have played on the road off a straight-up loss but ATS cover as an underdog over the lat two seasons, and in that situation they've lost by just 2.3 points on average. That's certainly an improvement over their overall performance away from home this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 8.2 points while going 6-17 SU. On the flip side, the Knicks have only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.8 points when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (60-game sample size). Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 210 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This first meeting between these two teams totalled just 176 points back in mid-November and I believe Sunday's posted total will prove too high as well. This is the start of a grueling week for the Cavs as they'll play five games between now and next Sunday. I can certainly see them 'managing' this one knowing they'll be back on the floor at home against the Pelicans tomorrow night. Detroit checks in having scored over 100 points in five straight games, although it just barely got over that number in three of those games. That marks a season-long streak of the sort for Detroit, one that should be in jeopardy against the Cavs on Sunday. Note that Cleveland has held its last three opponents to just 99, 93 and 87 points and comes into this game well-rested having not played since Wednesday, when it rolled to a 115-99 win over the Bucks at home. While the Pistons are by no means a top-flight defensive team, they have managed to hold opponents to 4.1 points per game below their season average here at home. Like the Cavs, they're rested, playing just their second game in the last five days. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 228.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I look for the Grizzlies to 'manage' this game after securing a double-digit win over the Jazz on this same floor last night and before heading out on a three-game road trip beginning on Monday night in Philadelphia. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of four games in a row including that stunning setback at home against the Clippers after leading by 30+ on Tuesday. The Wiz couldn't buy a basket when they needed it most in the fourth quarter in that one and are just one game removed from an ugly 87-point effort against the Celtics. Keep in mind, Washington averages 2.7 points below its season scoring average on the road, where its games have totalled an average of just 214.6 points. Here, we'll note that the Grizzlies have posted a 1-13 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 213.0 points. That's worth noting given the most recent meeting between these two teams went the way of the Wizards by a 115-87 score in Washington back in early November with that contest easily staying 'under' the 220.5-point total. We're dealing with an even higher number here and I don't believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Jazz +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz continue to struggle, losers of nine of their last 11 games entering Friday's showdown in Memphis. They check in off consecutive hard-fought losses against the Suns. While they're on a three-game losing streak, those three losses have come by only a combined 16 points. Utah is always tough on Memphis. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time the Grizzlies were favored in a matchup in this series. Memphis was red hot in late December into early January. However, it checks in just 3-3 SU and ATS over its last six contests. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies were held to 91 points or less on two occasions. On the flip side of that, Memphis has allowed north of 100 points in 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games. Here, we'll note that the Jazz are a long-term 136-99 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games, which is the case here. I don't expect them to let the Grizzlies off the hook easy as they look to open this road trip on a positive note. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
01-27-22 | Wolves v. Warriors OVER 228.5 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'm high on both of these teams entering this nationally-televised matchup on Thursday night. While we're dealing with a fairly high total at first glance, I believe it will prove too low. The T'Wolves have now given up over 100 points in each of their last 18 road games. They're giving up just shy of 115 points per game away from home this season. Golden State is coming off its second highest-scoring performance of the season, putting up 130 points in a rout of the Mavs two nights ago. Klay Thompson appears to be getting more comfortable with each passing game (he had actually sat the previous two games before Tuesday's blowout win). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 64-29 the last 93 times the Warriors played at home seeking revenge for a 20+ point loss, as is the case here after they suffered a 119-99 setback in Minnesota less than two weeks ago. Keep in mind, the Warriors elected to rest a number of their starters in that game at the tail-end of a four-game road trip. The T'Wolves are playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now, having scored 108 points or more in nine straight games. They're just one game removed from a 136-point outburst against Brooklyn. There's little reason for them to shy away from the challenge at hand here as the T'Wolves have scored 108, 111, 126, 110 and 119 points in five meetings in this series going back to the start of 2021. Note that the 'over' is 23-10 in Minnesota's last 33 games when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 235.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-26-22 | Suns v. Jazz UNDER 223.5 | Top | 105-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We just saw these two teams combine to score 224 points in Phoenix two nights ago. The Jazz were undermanned but battled hard in a tight six-point loss. While they're getting healthier, they're still missing a big part of their offense in the form of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. The Suns check in having allowed over 100 points in five straight games, matching their longest such streak of the season. Note that the only other time that happened, they allowed just 94 points in a blowout win in Memphis in their next game - a contest that easily stayed 'under' the total, reaching just 213 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 31-17 when the Suns play on the road with a total of between 220 and 229.5 points over the last three seasons. In fact, the 'under' is 14-8 in all Suns road games this season. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing only 94 points in a game against the Warriors that totalled just 186 points in San Francisco. Utah doesn't have the weapons to prevail in a track meet against the Suns right now and it knows it. Note that the last meeting between these two teams in Utah totalled only 201 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Kings +8.5 v. Celtics | 75-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are coming off a blowout win in Washington on Sunday but stringing together strong performances hasn't exactly been commonplace for them this season. The Kings have posted two of their six highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests, most recently falling just short in Milwaukee on Saturday, losing by six points in a wild, high-scoring affair. Sacramento has proven to be a tough out against the Celtics in recent years. You would have to go back seven meetings, all the way to March of 2018 to find the last time the Celtics defeated the Kings by more than six points. In fact, the Kings have won the last two meetings in this series outright and haven't lost to the Celtics by more than a point in any of the last four matchups between the two teams. Despite their miserable 6-14 road record, the Kings have only been outscored by 5.8 points on average. As for the Celtics, they're just 11-14 at TD Garden this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.2 points. I don't see this as a real 'get up' spot for Boston as plays this single home game - a rather uninspiring Tuesday night game against a non-conference, non-playoff team in Sacramento - before heading out for a back-to-back road set in Atlanta and New Orleans later this week. Take Sacramento (9*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Lakers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Fading the Nets fell just short of my card on Sunday, a regretful decision as they ended up losing by double-digits as a short underdog in Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Brooklyn as it looks to bounce back from that loss at home against the Lakers. Simply put, I'm not buying what Los Angeles is selling right now. Yes, the Lakers are expected to have Anthony Davis back on the floor for this game but how much he can contribute in his first game back remains to be seen. Los Angeles is fresh off a beatdown in Miami on Sunday (it ultimately rallied late to make the final score far less unflattering). The Lakers are just 2-5 SU and ATS over their last seven games and find themselves four games under .500 on the road. The Nets are a woeful 5-17 ATS here in Brooklyn this season but the problem certainly hasn't been failing to cover spreads in an underdog role. In fact, the Nets have been listed as a home underdog just once previously this season and ultimately won that game 114-105 over the 76ers back on December 16th. It does appear that Brooklyn may have put its pointspread woes behind it in the short-term picture, entering this game having gone 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Of course, the Nets won't have Kyrie Irving for this game, as is the case when they play at home, but that's certainly been factored into this line. I look for James Harden to relish the opportunity to step up, especially off a poor performance on Sunday in Minnesota, and dispatch the struggling Lakers. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Clippers +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. So many people wrote off the Clippers after Paul George was lost to injury, with Kawhi Leonard of course already sidelined for the season. This is a well-coached team that is by no means devoid of talent, however, and we've certainly seen that as they've gone 5-3 ATS over their last eight games, including an upset win in Philadelphia on this road trip. The Wizards have been a train-wreck from an ATS perspective, going 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. While this should be an ideal bounce-back spot in theory as they come in off of three straight home losses and try to salvage the finale of their current homestand, it's also a prime bounce-back spot for the Clippers coming off an eight-point loss in a sleepy matinee affair against the Knicks on Sunday in Manhattan. Here, we'll note that the Clips are 29-16 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points in that situation. As for the Wizards, they're a woeful 7-15 ATS as a favorite this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
01-24-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 215.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Monday. There are a number of key contributors missing due to injury on both sides but I still think this one finds its way 'over' the reasonable total on Monday. Let's keep in mind, the Pacers have scored 133, 111, 121 and 103 points in splitting the first four games on their current road trip. The problem for Indiana is it has thrown defense out the window for an extended period of time, allowing over 100 points in 19 consecutive games. As for the Pelicans, they've put up over 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games. The only occasion where they didn't reach the century mark was on the road in a three-in-four situation in Boston last Monday (in a sleepy matinee affair). While the 'under' has gone 11-9-1 in Pelicans home games this season, those contests have totalled an average of 217.8 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 41-26 with the Pacers coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 225.6 points and 23-10 with the Pelicans playing at home off a win over the last three seasons, with that situation resulting in an average of 235.6 total points. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
01-23-22 | 76ers v. Spurs OVER 220 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Antonio at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the 76ers and Spurs on Sunday evening as both teams look to bounce back from disappointing losses last time out. Philadelphia blew a big lead in a 102-101 home loss to the Clippers on Friday. The Sixers should know better than to take their foot off the gas but that's essentially what happened in that contest. While they're generally a solid defensive team, they've allowed over 100 points in three straight games and figure to struggle to contain a Spurs offense that has put up over the century mark in six straight games and averages just shy of 114 points per contest at home this season. To say that San Antonio has had its hands full with the Sixers offense in recent meetings would be an understatement. It has allowed 122, 115, 132, 134, 113 and 119 points in the last six matchups in this series going back to the start of 2019. Interestingly, the Spurs have been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing opponents to score 112.8 points per game on 46.5% shooting. The 'over' has gone 10-2 with San Antonio in the role of home underdog this season with that spot producing an average total of 226.4 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-21-22 | Nets v. Spurs +3 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We won with the Nets as a short underdog in Washington two nights ago and were fortunate to do so as they did everything they could to cough up the lead in the fourth quarter. Here, I'll go the other way and fade the Nets as they continue their road trip in San Antonio. The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 121-119 overtime loss in Brooklyn back on January 9th. They were in a tough spot on that day, playing near the end of a long eastern road trip but battled hard and ultimately forced overtime before falling by a bucket. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is 22-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Nets are a woeful 3-13 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscored by 4.7 points on average in that situation. While the Spurs are just 2-3 on their current homestand there's been no real shame in losses to the Rockets (who have been playing their best ball lately), Cavs and Suns. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
01-19-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. This total has been dropping in our favor, not surprisingly, as bettors realize the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday night. I'm expecting nothing short of a track meet in Salt Lake City. The Rockets are playing better basketball than they had been, recording two wins in their last three games, scoring 128, 114 and 118 points over their last three games. They're as healthy as they've been all season and should come out with an attacking mindset against a suddenly-struggling Jazz squad. Utah has lost five of its last six games and has posted its two lowest-scoring games of the season over its last three contests. Even without Mitchell, this is a fine 'get right' spot for the Jazz, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. The Rockets are one of the league's worst defensive teams and check in having allowed 130, 141, 111, 124, 126 and 112 points over their last six games. To say the 'over' has been a solid bet in Rockets games would be a massive understatement as they've posted a 21-7 o/u record over their last 28 games. While Utah carries a reputation of being a solid defensive team, it has actually given up over 100 points in 18 consecutive games. The 'over' is 20-9-1 in the Jazz's last 30 contests. Finally, I'll point out that the last meeting between these two teams here in Utah took place last May and totalled a whopping 240 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-19-22 | Magic +12 v. 76ers | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Magic in their last game as they were never all that close in an eventual 10-point loss at home against the surging Blazers. That final score was actually flattering as the Blazers absolutely took the game over in the second and third quarters. Here, I look for the Magic to bounce back with a more competitive effort as they hit the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia has gone 2-0 against Orlando this season but both previous meetings were competitive with the Sixers winning by five points here at home and 10 on the road (Philadelphia pulled away late for the latter victory - we actually won with the Sixers in that game). Orlando is as healthy as it has been in quite some time and checks in having posted a winning record ATS (8-7) over its last 15 contests. The 76ers have been performing well ATS also but we faded them on Monday in Washington (they lost by 19 points) and I think they might have a tough time getting up for this midweek matchup against a lowly opponent. Note that Philadelphia is just 7-11 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by only 2.6 points on average. Take Orlando (9*). | |||||||
01-19-22 | Nets +1.5 v. Wizards | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a big ticket in support of the Wizards in Monday's eventual rout of the 76ers here at home. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Wiz as they look to make it two wins in a row against top Eastern Conference opponents at home against the Nets on Wednesday. Brooklyn is coming off a tough road loss in Cleveland on Monday. There's no shame in losing to the Cavs these days though as they're playing as well as anyone in the league, perhaps with the exception of the Grizzlies, right now. Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, I look for the Nets to bounce back in this one. Brooklyn is certainly accustomed to playing without one (if not two) of the 'Big Three'. The Nets have of course been at their best on the road this season where they're 15-5 SU and 11-9 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.2 points. We're able to back them at a discount here as they've gone a woeful 4-7 SU over their last 11 contests. I see this as a big step-up spot, however, before they continue their trip with a couple of tricky Western Conference matchups with the Spurs and T'Wolves. Here, we'll note that the Wizards are a woeful 7-20 ATS the last 27 times they've come off an outright underdog win by 15 points or more, as is the case here, outscored by 9.5 points on average in that spot. Take Brooklyn (9*). | |||||||
01-17-22 | Blazers v. Magic +2 | 98-88 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm not buying the line move here with the Magic shifting from a short favorite to a short underdog. Yes, the Blazers are coming off an upset win in Washington (without Bradley Beal) on Saturday but they're still just 3-14 on the road this season. They're expected to get C.J. McCollum back on Monday night which obviously gives them a boost, but he's likely to be limited in his first game back. Wins have been few and far between for the Magic but they're just one game removed from posting an impressive victory in Charlotte on Friday. They've been slowly getting back some of their injured players with Jalen Suggs returning in that win over Charlotte and proceeding to score 28 points and add nine assists and nine rebounds in 45 minutes in two games. As bad as the Magic have been in recent years they've actually outscored opponents by 0.8 points on average when the line is between +3 and -3 over the last three seasons. The Blazers are off a win as I mentioned but they're also just one game removed from giving up 140 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a 32-point loss to the Nuggets. The Magic are by no means the Nuggets but I do expect them to have a good night against the Blazers on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-17-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +3.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Wizards in this game as they look to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing home loss to the undermanned Blazers, and snap a two-game skid in this series with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off an outright underdog win in Miami on Saturday. I don't need to tell you that wasn't really a true 'upset'. The 76ers are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams and they're coming off consecutive wins over the Celtics and aforementioned Heat. I believe a letdown may be in order here, however. While the Sixers are 16-8 on the road this season they've actually only outscored opponents by 1.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in one of their most favorable spots here, having gone 33-19 ATS in their last 52 home games when coming off a loss. Bradley Beal may be back for the Wiz this afternoon but even if he's not I like the way this spot sets up. Consider it a bonus if he's able to go. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-15-22 | Cavs v. Thunder +5.5 | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. You would think this would be a clear letdown spot for the Thunder off Thursday's big upset win in Brooklyn (we won with OKC in that game) but I don't see it. Note that Oklahoma City checks in 19-8 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win on the road over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. The Cavs are coming off three straight wins on their current road trip. They've covered the spread in consecutive games but it's worth noting that it marks their first ATS winning streak since reeling off six straight covers from December 8th to 18th. The Cavs actually check into this one just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 contests. Meanwhile, OKC has been one of the best bets in the NBA for nearly a month now, having gone 12-3 ATS over its last 15 games. Their two highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 118 and 130 points. No reason to shy away from the Thunder here. Take Oklahoma City (9*). | |||||||
01-15-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Milwaukee at 6:40 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors were in a tough spot last night, laying points on the road against a less-than-inspiring opponent in the Pistons after a hard-fought four-point loss at home to the Suns two nights earlier. Perhaps not surprisingly, they weren't able to get up for the game and lost in a game that was never all that competitive. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Raps in Milwaukee. The Bucks drilled the Warriors two nights ago but are still just 2-4 SU and ATS over their last six games. Going back to December 8th, they've had just two ATS winning streaks. The Raps meanwhile, have failed to cover the spread (using the closing number) in three straight games, matching their longest such stretch of the season. Interestingly the last time they failed to do so they defeated the Bucks by a 97-93 score as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 2nd. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
01-14-22 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday. After being held down offensively (relatively speaking) in consecutive games against top-level defensive teams in the Bucks and 76ers, I look for the Hornets to bust out in this one (noting that they're coming off consecutive sub-110-point scoring performances for the first time since mid-December). Charlotte has scored 120 and 106 points in the first two meetings in this series this season. Note that on the latter occasion, the Hornets shot a miserable 12-of-41 from three-point range. Perhaps they could be excused for that performance as they were playing their third game in five nights on the road. The Magic aren't exactly shooting the lights out right now but they are expected to get an offensive boost with the likely return of Jalen Suggs on Friday night. Note that the 'over' is 48-30 when the Magic seek revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons and Charlotte just happens to be one of the most forgiving defensive teams in the league, giving up an average of 115.5 points per game. The last time these two teams squared off here in Charlotte, they combined to score 234 points last May. There's little reason to expect the Hornets to 'manage' this game and perhaps hold a little something back as they will have the entire weekend off before heading to New York for a date with the Knicks on Monday. Charlotte averages 118.3 points per game when playing before two or more days off this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-14-22 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 210 | 99-111 | Push | 0 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Perhaps we're seeing a bit of an overreaction in the betting markets here after the 76ers were held to just 98 points in a losing effort at home against the Hornets two nights ago, combined with the fact that the 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this series. Keep in mind, each of those three matchups were played in Boston. The last time these two teams met in Philadelphia they combined to score 232 points last January. Interestingly, the 'over' is 29-17 the last 46 times the Celtics have been in the role of underdog with that situation producing an average total of 226.7 points. Despite that poor offensive showing against the Hornets, the 76ers have still managed to score 110 points or more in seven of their last eight contests. Celtics road games have been considerably higher scoring than their home games this season, totalling an average of 216.3 points. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Thunder +9.5 v. Nets | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Nets are coming off a blowout win over the Bulls last night. Now they're back home, where they've been an awful bet this season to host one of the best spread-covering teams in the league, but one that carries a poor reputation in the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are coming off a season-high 118-point performance in a narrow loss to the Wizards two nights ago. While they've lost five games in a row, they've actually gone 4-1 ATS over that stretch. To that point, they're 5-14 SU on the road this season but 12-7 ATS. The Nets are 3-16 ATS as a home favorite this season and playing on the second of back-to-back nights, off a lopsided win, against a non-conference opponent that doesn't draw much inspiration in the Thunder, I have a hard time buying into them as a near-double-digit favorite. Take Oklahoma City (9*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Thunder v. Nets UNDER 219.5 | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. This total has been rising since opening, not a big surprise with the Nets having scored 138 points in a win in Chicago last night while Oklahoma City comes off a season-high 118-point effort in Washington two nights ago. Keep in mind, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results from the Thunder since December 26th and 28th while the Nets haven't posted back-to-back 'over' results since December 25th and 27th. Here, I'll also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Thunder seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent this season, which is the case here after the Nets took the first meeting this season 120-96 in Oklahoma City back in November. That situation has produced a ridiculously-low average total (by today's NBA standards) of just 195.0 points. The 'under' is also 34-20 with the Nets playing at home off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 218.4 points in that spot. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up for the Timberwolves. They're coming off a loss as a favorite in New Orleans two nights ago, snapping their four-game winning streak. Note that Minnesota is 23-12 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a road loss, as is the case here, outscored by just 3.8 points on average in that spot. It may come as a surprise but despite their 9-11 SU record on the road, the Wolves have gone 13-7 ATS. That's despite all of their key contributors in and out of the lineup due to illness or injury. The Grizzlies are in high favor right now, having won seven straight games, culminating with a 116-108 win over the mighty Warriors two nights ago. Not surprisingly, bettors are lining up to back them on Thursday and we've seen this line rise by a full point since opening (at the time of writing). I like the Grizzlies, but I like backing them a whole lot more in the role of underdog or short favorite. That's simply not the case here, noting as well that they lost the most recent meeting in this series by 43 points back in late November and their last two wins over the T'Wolves have come by relatively short margins of seven and four points. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
01-12-22 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 231.5 | Top | 116-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This will be the fourth meeting between these two teams this season and the second in a little over a week. Last week's game went the Lakers way by a 122-114 score in Los Angeles. Naturally, that high-scoring 'over' result is leading to a slightly higher posted total for this one, but I believe it's the wrong move. While the Lakers have not surprisingly been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, they've also been a stronger defensive team - at least from a points per game allowed perspective. The 'under' checks in a profitable 9-7 in their 16 road contests to date, including a matchup between these same two teams here in Sacramento back in November that totalled just 209 points. The Kings have seen the 'under' cash at a 15-9 clip at home this season and enter this game playing a rather uneven brand of offensive basketball, having scored 102, 111, 88 and 108 points over their last four games with the 'under' cashing in three of those contests. The Lakers have of course seen the 'over' cash in three consecutive high-scoring affairs but I do think we have a 'catalyst for change' at play here as they hit the road, and do so off a disappointing loss against the Grizzlies on Sunday. Note that the 'under' is 24-12 in the Lakers last 36 road games when coming off an ATS loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 215.3 points. The 'under' is a perfect 9-0 in the Kings last nine games when coming off a game in which they covered the spread but failed to win outright, which is the situation here off Monday's narrow home loss to the Cavs. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-11-22 | Suns v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns simply haven't been the same spread-covering juggernaut they were last season, checking in at 30-9 SU but just 21-18 ATS so far this season. They enter Tuesday's matchup in Toronto having gone just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and an even 9-9 ATS over their last 18 contests. The Raptors on the other hand have reeled off six consecutive wins and own a terrific 12-3 ATS mark over their last 15 games. There was a sense of 'here we go again' in Toronto early in the campaign following last year's championship hangover, but credit the Raps for coming together and turning things around, despite plenty of key absences along the way. They're relatively healthy now and will have revenge on their minds here after getting swept in the two-game season series with the Suns last year. Keep in mind, they were competitive in both games, losing by four points here at home and eight on the road. Phoenix managed to go 2-0 ATS in those contests thanks to laying 3.5 points or less in both. While most will expect a big bounce-back performance from the Suns off Sunday's blowout loss at home against the Heat, I'm no so easily convinced. They've shot 41.1% or worse from the field in three of their last five games and have also inexplicably allowed two of their three highest point totals of the season over that stretch. After this game the Raptors will have a couple of days off before a five-game road trip. While I'm not going to make a habit of fading the Suns (we've actually cashed numerous tickets in support of them this season), I do think this is a favorable spot to do so. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
01-11-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 216.5 | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. One of my favorite situations is in play on Tuesday night in Washington, noting that the last 29 times the Wizards have played at home off an 'under' result, we've seen an average total of 234.1 points scored. In fact, we haven't seen the Wiz post consecutive 'under' results since November 20th and 22nd. The Thunder have been held to 97 points or less in five of their last six games but I see this as a solid 'get right' opportunity for them offensively, especially after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to just eight points on a woeful 2-of-14 shooting against Denver last time out. The best players tend to bounce back and I expect that from SGA here. Note that despite their recent stretch, the Thunder do average 107.0 points and an average total of 218.1 total points when coming off a game in which they were held to 100 points or less, as is the case here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 200 points. That helps to keep this total in check, noting that last year's two meetings saw closing totals of 233.5 and 232.5 in games that reached 226 and 238 total points. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
01-10-22 | Jazz v. Pistons +12 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 'foul mood' narrative is weighing heavily with a lot of bettors in this one as the Jazz enter this game off back-to-back losses in Toronto and Indiana. We've seen the line shift a point-and-a-half in favor of Utah over the course of the morning and I believe it's gotten out of hand. As bad as the Pistons have been this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 5.7 points here at home. They come into this game having won three of their last five games overall and have gone an even 6-6 ATS over their last 12 contests. As for the Jazz, they're missing a number of key contributors and not only enter off consecutive SU losses, but have gone a miserable 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games. In three meetings since the start of 2020, the Jazz's largest margin of victory in this series has been 12 points, and that came at home in a game where they were favored by 13. The last time Utah played here in Detroit it was favored by just 8.5 points and won by 10 last January. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
01-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 226 | Top | 127-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Lakers defense has been dreadful over the course of their current 6-2 'over' run but they have an opportunity to perhaps catch their breath here as the Grizzlies stay in L.A. after brushing aside the Clippers yeterday afternoon and play their fifth game in the last seven nights, having gone a perfect 4-0 in their previous four, part of an eight-game winning streak. Not only are the Grizzlies likely road weary (their last four games have been played in four different cities), they're also dealing with some key injuries and absences. They recently welcomed Dillon Brooks back to the lineup but he was forced to leave yesterday's game with an ankle injury. Ja Morant sat out yesterday's game with a thigh injury but could return tonight. Regardless, it's worth noting that the Grizzlies have held 20 of their last 22 opponents to 108 points or less. The two teams that scored more than that were the Suns and Warriors and even in those games the Grizzlies only allowed 113 points. After the first meeting between these two teams totalled 239 points back in October, their two matchups in December reached identical totals of 203 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games following six or more consecutive victories while the 'under' is 26-9 in the Lakers last 35 contests after winning five or six of their last seven games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-07-22 | Cavs v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 114-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Portland at 10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in the Cavs most recent game against the Grizzlies on Wednesday (most actually won as the total shifted downward after posting) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Cleveland heads on the road to face Portland on Friday. The Blazers couldn't have performed much better offensively two nights ago against Miami but still fell by a 115-109 score (we won with the Heat in that game). In that contest, the Blazers knocked down 15 three-pointers and made a whopping 36 trips to the free throw line - yet still scored 'only' 109 points. I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Blazers top two scoring options, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum of course remain sidelined. Defensively, the Blazers have been a wreck. The good news here is, they catch the Cavs a little out of sorts offensively, having scored 104, 93, 118, 108 and 106 points over their last five games. Going all the way back to mid-November, their last 10 road games have totalled 208, 210, 196, 217, 216, 229, 209, 212, 212 and 203 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 211 total points back in November and that was with the two teams at full strength. Take the under (9*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |