Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-12-22 | Wolves v. Blazers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams combined to score 242 points in the front half of this two-game set in Portland on Saturday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring result, however, with both teams getting off just 83 field goal attempts. Both the Wolves and Blazers shot the lights out in that contest but I expect to see some adjustments made and better defense played in Monday's rematch. Keep in mind, these two teams met four times last season and we didn't see the 'over' hit in consecutive meetings on any occasion. Note that the 'under' has gone 16-10 with the Wolves coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons and has cashed three out of four times it has followed four consecutive games shooting 47% or better from the field over the same stretch. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-10 with the Blazers playing at home with a total of 230 points or higher over the last three seasons and 5-1 when coming off a win by six points or less this season. We've seen Portland post consecutive 'over' results on only three previous occasions this season and all three times its next contest stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-12-22 | Heat -2.5 v. Pacers | 87-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Heat now dropped the cash in four straight games entering Monday's clash with the similarly-slumping Pacers in Indiana. Notably, Miami has lost three of its last four games and it has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS when in that situation on the road over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.3 points. While Miami has held five of its last six opponents to 87 field goal attempts or fewer, Indiana has had no such luck, or interest, in controlling the pace of its opponents, yielding 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four and six of its last nine contests overall. Off an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite against the Spurs on Saturday, we'll call for the revenge-minded Heat (they lost by two points here in Indiana back in early November) to bounce back in a big way here. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
12-09-22 | Knicks v. Hornets +4.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed fading the Knicks two nights ago as they caught a break with Dejounte Murray going down with an injury early for the Hawks in an eventual blowout win. Here, I don't think New York will be so fortunate as it looks for its third consecutive victory. Charlotte rides a three-game losing streak but it isn't playing all that poorly. The Hornets have actually delivered the cash in consecutive games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests. Note also that they'll be seeking revenge for an earlier 134-131 loss in New York back in late October. New York is just 6-6 on the road this season where it has been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points and I simply don't believe it has any business laying points here. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-08-22 | Nuggets -1 v. Blazers | 121-120 | Push | 0 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they look to snap a three-game skid and also avenge an earlier blowout loss to the Blazers this season. Denver has clamped down on its last two opponents, yielding just 81 and 72 field goal attempts but came away with nothing to show for it. The Nuggets most recent loss was particularly discouraging as they fell by a single point at home against Dallas in what should have been a terrific bounce-back spot. A lot of bettors got burned with Denver in that game and won't have much interest in backing it again here. Portland has knocked down 41 or 42 field goals in four straight games but has also gotten off 85 or more field goal attempts in each of those contests - a number I'm not convinced it will reach here. On the flip side, we've seen the Blazers relax a bit defensively of late, allowing four of its last six opponents to hoist up 89 or more FG attempts. In that type of environment, I believe the potential is there for the Nuggets to go off offensively in this one. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
12-07-22 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I like the setup for this play on Wednesday as the Hawks come off a disappointing home loss as a six-point favorite against the Thunder last time out while the Knicks check in off an outright underdog win over the Cavs on their home floor on Sunday. That was an easy game for New York to get up for after it got throttled at home just over 24 hours earlier against the Mavericks. I suspect it will be a little tougher for the Knicks here, noting that they're still just 3-6 SU and ATS over their last nine contests. Here, we'll note also that the Knicks are 16-22 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win over the last three seasons while the Hawks are 20-17 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the same stretch. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
12-05-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 236 | 112-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday. These two teams enter Monday's game trending in opposite directions with the Pacers having lost three games in a row both SU and ATS and the Warriors coming off consecutive victories and five wins in their last six contests, also both SU and ATS. Both teams come off 'under' results last time out, and we're starting to see this astronomical total come down a bit. I don't believe the move is warranted. The Pacers check in having knocked down 40+ field goals in four straight games. They're certainly getting their opportunities, hoisting up 94, 105, 100, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over their last five games. The problem is, their defense has been non-existent, allowing six of their last seven opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. Teams are bullying them around and that's not likely to change against the red hot Warriors on Monday. Golden State is rolling right now, making good on 42+ field goals in six consecutive games. On the flip side, it hasn't shown much interest in slowing down the opposition, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. Expect a track meet on Monday in San Francisco. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-03-22 | Magic +11 v. Raptors | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic have dropped the cash in consecutive games since we successfully backed them on Monday in Brooklyn. Here, I do look for them to give the reeling Raptors a run. Toronto is coming off consecutive road defeats in New Orleans and Brooklyn. The Raptors aren't playing with a great deal of pace right now and that makes it difficult to cover lofty pointspreads such as the one we're looking at on Saturday. While Orlando is struggling, it has managed to hold four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite getting off only 81 field goal attempts themselves last night, the Magic did manage to knock down 40 of them against a tough opponent in the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Toronto checks in having made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
12-02-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 233 | Top | 117-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 239 points as, you guessed it, the Spurs lost and failed to cover, currently mired in a seven-game ATS losing streak. You would have to go back three games to find the last time a San Antonio game stayed 'under' the total while the Pelicans check in off an 'over' result themselves and have played to the 'under' just once in their last four contests. I'll go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we're dealing with a higher posted total than we saw when these teams met on November 23rd. Prior to their last game on Wednesday in Oklahoma City, the Spurs had been doing a good job of at least limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 85 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. That changed on Wednesday as they yielded 94 FG attempts in the Thunder's come-from-behind victory. I'll chalk that up as a 'game-script' related performance as the Thunder pushed the pace due to the fact they were trailing most of the way. Here, the Pelicans should be able to control proceedings and we'll note that they check in having hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games overall. San Antonio's last two opponents have 'shot the lights out' as I like to say, but that actually sets the 'under' up well here, noting that the 'under' has gone 19-8 the last 27 times the Spurs previous two opponents shot 50% or better from the field, resulting in an average total of 221.7 points in that situation. The Pelicans also saw their most recent opponent shoot well, with the Raptors knocking down just shy of 48% of their FG attempts against them on Wednesday. Keep in mind, New Orleans is just one game removed from limiting the Thunder to 34-of-92 (37%) shooting in a game that totalled 'only' 206 points. Finally, I'll note that the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram again on Friday as he deals with a toe injury. He contributed 17 points and added 10 assists the last time these two teams met. Meanwhile, the Spurs are dealing with a number of key injuries. Of note, Doug McDermott, currently listed as questionable to play on Friday, poured in 21 points when these two teams matched up last week. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-30-22 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | 109-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. While the Lakers have gone 3-2 ATS over their last five games, I don't believe you're going to win many games, let alone cover a lot of pointspreads when you're allowing the opposition to get off 100 or more field goal attempts on a regular basis. That's the case with Los Angeles as each of its last five opponents have hoisted up 100+ FG attempts. Four of those five opponents knocked down more than 40 field goals and while the Lakers do catch the Blazers in a back-to-back spot, I also feel that Portland will be in a less-than-giving mood after coughing up a double-digit fourth quarter lead in a home loss against the Clippers last night. Portland has held four of its last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts with the exception being a wild 132-129 overtime victory in New York last Friday. The Lakers recently enjoyed an offensive surge but have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four contests, despite the frenetic pace those games have been played at. The Blazers took the first meeting between these two teams back in October and while you might think the Lakers are poised to get their revenge here, the fact is they have defeated Portland by more than five points just once in five meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. Take Portland (8*). | |||||||
11-30-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Wizards as they come off an impressive 142-127 win over the T'Wolves on Monday that snapped a three-game losing streak. All three of those losses came on their most recent road trip so it won't be difficult to sharpen their focus for this brief two-game trip. Note that Washington has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since getting throttled 128-86 at home against the Nets back in October. Prior to that, the Wizards had won consecutive meetings in this series, including a 117-103 victory here in Brooklyn last February. The Nets won but failed to cover against the Magic on Monday (we won with Orlando in that game). They've been shooting the lights out for weeks but I still think they're working with a slim margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games overall. Case in point, the Nets shot better than 54% from the field on Monday but still scored 'only' 109 points in an ATS loss. Washington comes in hot offensively as well, making good on 40+ field goals in seven straight games while hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The Wizards last two opponents have shot exceptionally well but they've held those two teams to 80 and 84 FG attempts, limiting each of their last three foes to less than 90 attempts after five of their previous six opponents had eclipsed that number. Finally, we'll note that Brooklyn checks in a miserable 2-13 ATS the last 15 times it has played at home after winning five or six of its last seven games, outscored by an average margin of 1.1 points in that situation. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
11-30-22 | Hawks v. Magic UNDER 227.5 | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. With both of these teams playing at a reasonably slow pace lately and neither shooting particularly well, I believe this total will prove too high on Wednesday. Atlanta has gotten off just 82, 88 and 74 field goal attempts over its last three contests, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in all three. The good news is, the Hawks have been limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities as well, holding nine of their last 10 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's a similar story for Orlando. It has gotten off 80 or fewer FG attempts in three straight games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time the Magic knocked down 40 or more field goals. Meanwhile, they've held three straight opponents to 82 or fewer FG attempts, including the red hot Nets in a 109-102 loss on Monday. Brooklyn actually shot the lights out in that contest (44 made field goals) yet still scored 'only' 109 points in a game that stayed comfortably 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 214 | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Portland at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I understand the logic behind this total shifting downward but that doesn't mean I agree with it. The Clippers haven't been the same dominant force defensively this season, and certainly not of late as two of their last three opponents have gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts with three of their last four foes knocking down 40+ field goals. In fact, 12 of Los Angeles' last 14 opponents have scored 100+ points. The Blazers have been held to 97 points or less in two of their last three games but should rebound at home, where they're averaging north of 114 points per game on 40 made field goals per contest. Defensively, Portland has allowed eight consecutive opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In general, the Blazers play at a faster pace here at the Moda Center, averaging 85 FG attempts per game compared to their season average of 83 while yielding 88 FG attempts per contest to opponents compared to their season average of 86. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers play on without Damian Lillard but the Clippers are in even worse shape, missing Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall (he'll rest with this being the first of a back-to-back set). Los Angeles did prevail by a 114-100 score over Indiana at home on Sunday, thanks to knocking down 42 field goals - the first time in three games it broke the 40-FG mark. Of course, the Clips needed 94 FG attempts to get there - well north of their season average (they had hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their previous nine contests). While the Blazers do look vulnerable defensively right now (40+ field goals allowed in eight straight games), I'm not convinced the Clips are well-positioned to take advantage. Portland suffered a 111-97 loss in Brooklyn on Sunday, managing just one victory on its four-game road trip. I do think there's reason for optimism as it returns home, noting that it plays at a faster, more fluid pace here, making good on 40-of-85 FG attempts per game. Keep in mind, the last two times Portland has gotten off 80+ FG attempts it has knocked down 44 and 42 of them and Los Angeles has allowed two of its last three foes to get off 94+ FG attempts, yielding 40+ makes in three of its last four contests. While the Clippers are 5-4 on the road this season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.2 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers are an even 4-4 at home but have outscored opponents by 1.8 points on average here at the Moda Center. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
11-28-22 | Magic +10.5 v. Nets | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Monday. With Brooklyn 'fat and happy' off last night's 14-point win over Portland and Orlando looking to bounce back from four straight losses SU and three in a row ATS, I'll confidently grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Magic on Monday. Note that Orlando have Brooklyn all it could handle in two matchups on this floor last season, losing by a bucket and winning by seven. While Orlando is 1-8 on the road this season, only three of those losses came by more than 10 points. I still feel that the Nets have a fairly small margin for error as they've gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. They've been shooting the lights out for the better part of the last two weeks but here they're asked to lay double-digits for the first time since October 29th against Indiana (a game they lost outright 125-116). We know the Magic can limit the opposition's scoring opportunities as they've held their last three opponents to 86, 82 and 77 FG attempts. Last night, the 76ers simply couldn't miss, knocking down a ridiculous 64.9% of their shots. Noting that the Magic are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times they've come off consecutive ATS losses, we'll grab all of those points on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -6.5 | 112-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. No question the Suns have had this one circled since dropping a wild 134-133 decision in Salt Lake City on November 18th. The Jazz quite simply shot the lights out in that game, knocking down 51-of-91 field goal attempts in the narrow victory. Here, Phoenix catches Utah in a 3-in-4 situation, playing in a third different city over that stretch. The Jazz have had now answers defensively, allowing four of their last six opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to make good on 47, 44 and 52 field goals. That spells trouble as they face a red hot Suns squad that has knocked down 42+ field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has rounded back into form defensively, holding its last three opponents to 34, 36 and 39 made field goals (the latter came on 92 FG attempts from the Pistons last night). Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-26-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +3 | 143-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Spurs (again) last night. Once again, we saw them push the pace, getting off 100 field goal attempts, but failing to make those opportunities count in a nine-point loss to the same Lakers they'll face on Saturday. Another positive, San Antonio limited Los Angeles to 83 field goal attempts. It has now held six consecutive opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Teams continue to shoot exceptionally well on this admittedly poor Spurs defense, but I do think we see Pop's crew step up in that regard tonight. Note that the Lakers are a woeful 5-17 ATS after giving up 95 points or fewer in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by 2.5 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Pistons v. Suns -12 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Detroit at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Pistons off their big upset win over the Jazz in Utah two nights ago as that marked their third consecutive ATS win, marking their longest such streak of the season. Detroit has shot exceptionally well over its last several games, knocking down 43, 47, 45 and 44 field goals over its last four contests, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in three of those games. Here, it runs into a Suns squad that has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts and its last two foes to just 34 and 36 made field goals. On the flip side, Phoenix is playing at a tremendous pace and making the most of it, hoisting up 94 or more FG attempts in six of its last seven contests and making good on 43+ field goals in five straight games. Noting that the Suns are 22-10 ATS the last 32 times they've come off consecutive double-digit victories, I don't anticipate a letdown off a 10-point victory over the Lakers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 212 | 107-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This is the second instalment of a two-game set between these two teams in Miami after the Heat prevailed by a 113-105 score on Wednesday. That 'over' result has led to an adjustment to the total here, and I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. Washington continues to defend well, holding three straight and 11 of its 18 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals this season. It has also been efficient offensively for the most part, although it needed to shoot better than 47% from the field to get to 42 made field goals and only 105 points in this same matchup two nights ago. The Wiz are averaging only 87 field goal attempts per game on the road this season while the Heat have held the opposition to 86 FG attempts per contest here at home. Miami has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games including 35 and 39 in two games against Washington (the first of which was aided by overtime). It matched a season-high with 93 FG attempts in regulation time last time out yet still scored 'only' 113 points on 39 made field goals. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Nets v. Pacers +3 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Nets have absolutely shot the lights out lately, knocking down 40+ field goals in five straight games and 44 or more in each of their last three. Yet they've still been held to 'only' 112 points or less in three of those contests as their pace still isn't up to par, getting off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. Meanwhile, they're playing with fire at the other end of the floor, as each of their last six foes have hoisted up 91 or more FG attempts with their last three getting off 99+. The Pacers are fit to take advantage, noting that they've made good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall, despite attempting 90 or more field goals in only three of those contests. At the other end of the floor, Indiana has limited three of its last four opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts and four of its last six foes to fewer than 40 makes. Last time out, the T'Wolves quite simply couldn't miss, shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field, yet still won by 'only' 14 points. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 227 | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the set-up for this play as the first meeting between these two teams was lower-scoring than expected and the Grizzlies have actually seen the 'under' cash in three of their last five games overall, despite playing at a reasonably fast pace. Memphis has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games entering Friday's contest. It has also made good on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games heading in, but comes off a loss to the Kings last time out. New Orleans has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing three of its last four opponents to knock down 41+ field goals. However, its offense has more than made up for it, making good on 42+ field goals in six straight contests and 49 and 47 over its last two games. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | Top | 105-94 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Spurs two nights ago as they fell in a big hole early in the game against the Pelicans and never recovered in a 19-point loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with San Antonio here, however, as it stays home to host the Lakers in a quick revenge spot after getting blown out 123-92 in Los Angeles on Sunday. While Los Angeles does check in 2-1-1 ATS over its last four contests, it isn't necessarily trending in the right direction at either end of the floor. Note that the Lakers have gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight games while allowing their last three opponents to hoist up 92, 105 and 102 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs have actually held their last five opponents to 79, 83, 81, 85 and 82 FG attempts but each and every one of those teams have shot the lights out. Of course, that has a lot to do with the inept nature of the Spurs defense. Note, however, that the Lakers might not be fit to take full advantage as they've shot 45.5% or worse in five of six road games this season. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is a long-term 126-95 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
11-25-22 | Wolves v. Hornets +5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Minnesota at 5:10 pm et on Friday. With this line creeping up to +5 I'll step in with a play on the underdog Hornets on Friday. Charlotte is going to get its scoring opportunities, after all it has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in seven of its last nine games, knocking down 42+ field goals in six of its last seven contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been playing at a slower pace than we've come to expect out of it, getting off 85 or fewer FG attempts in eight of its last nine games. On the flip side, the T'Wolves last two opponents have racked up 90 and 96 FG attempts but have shot incredibly poor. Noting that Minnesota has won just once in the last five meetings in this series and that victory came at home, by only six points, we'll grab all the points we can get with the Hornets here. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Pelicans v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs are limping home off an 0-5 road trip but I'm confident they can bounce back and give the Pelicans all they can handle on Wednesday night. It's not difficult to see that San Antonio's problems mostly lie at the defensive end of the floor. All five of the Spurs opponents on their most recent road trip shot better than 51% from the field. All is not lost, however, and I do think we see them turn it around, relatively-speaking, sooner rather than later. Note that San Antonio has actually held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Spurs have managed to knock down 41 or more field goals in three of their last four games. Those two factors would have you thinking they would have at least been able to fare better than their 1-3 ATS mark over that stretch. I expect things to start to level out for them from an ATS perspective as they return home. Note that the Pelicans have been vulnerable defensively as well, allowing six of their last nine opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. They quite simply shot the lights out in a rout of the Warriors (who were resting their stars in a back-to-back spot) two nights ago. Nothing came easy for them against the Spurs last season as San Antonio went 3-2 SU and ATS in five meetings, getting off 91, 93, 89, 92 and 91 FG attempts along the way. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -1.5 | 112-98 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the well-rested Raptors as they take the floor following a three-day break, hosting a Nets squad that just got dominated in Philadelphia last night. Brooklyn, once considered one of the league's better defensive teams, has been giving up far too many scoring opportunities with each of its last five opponents hoisting up 91 or more field goal attempts. The Nets have yielded a whopping 99 field goal attempts to each of their last two opponents. On the flip side, Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in six consecutive games. Its only saving grace has been the fact that it has shot the lights out in its last two contests - something I don't expect it to do against Toronto on Wednesday. The Raptors couldn't contain the Hawks fast-paced offense in Atlanta last time out but have still limited five of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, their own offense has been on an uptick despite a number of key contributors being out of the lineup, making good on 40, 44 and 48 field goals over their last three contests. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
11-23-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Celtics | 112-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a pair of extremely tightly-contested games last season and I would expect nothing different in their first matchup this season. Boston was red hot heading into Monday's matchup with the revenge-minded Bulls in Chicago. There were warning signs, however, as the Celtics had allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. We can make that nine out of their last 11 now as Chicago knocked down 46 field goals in a convincing 121-107 victory. Now Boston will have to deal with a Dallas squad that has limited each of its last five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and will be in a foul mood off a one-point home loss against Denver on Sunday. The Mavericks have had their issues offensively but I'm confident a breakout is imminent and this looks like an ideal spot given the Celtics recent vulnerability defensively. With Boston's pace slowing over the last few games, getting off 88, 85 and 87 FG attempts over that stretch, and Dallas' tendency to lock down opposing offenses, yielding 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests, this has all the makings of a game that goes right down to the wire. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -6.5 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The absence of Chris Paul has provided some solid opportunities to back the Suns at discounted prices and I believe that's the case again on Tuesday as they host the Lakers. Los Angeles is in a prime letdown spot here after shooting the lights out in consecutive games against the Spurs and Pistons (both at home). Last time out, they actually allowed the Spurs to get off a whopping 105 field goal attempts but San Antonio couldn't take advantage, shooting an awful 39% in the loss. The Lakers aren't likely to see anything close to that level of inefficiency from the Suns here. Phoenix is really forcing the issue offensively right now, hoisting up 94+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games and making good on 43 or more field goals in four straight contests. On the flip side, I like the fact that Phoenix got back on track defensively in Sunday's win over the Knicks, holding New York to only 85 FG attempts after its previous two opponents had gotten off 91+. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Pistons v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. Detroit enters this contest off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against the Lakers and Kings after the first game on its current road trip totalled just 187 points. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting as the Pistons continue their road trip in Denver. The Nuggets are of course missing a number of key contributors right now and it has shown. They've managed to get off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. However, they have figured out how to stay competitive and that's by slowing the opposition, limiting three of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Detroit quite simply shot the lights out last time out in Sacramento. While it has knocked down 43 and 47 field goals over its last two games, I'm not convinced that type of production is sustainable as it had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in each of its previous eight contests. On the flip side, the Pistons have done a nice job of at least limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Denver made good on more than 38 field goals, leaving it in a tough spot here should the pace stay down. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-22-22 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 106-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these teams have shot with incredible efficiency lately, the pace just hasn't been there to dictate a posted total at this level. Brooklyn has gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and hasn't reached 90 since back on November 4th in Washington (in a game that still totalled only 214 points). Meanwhile, the undermanned 76ers have hoisted up 79 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games and haven't attempted more than 83 field goals in any of their last six contests. While both sides have allowed their opponents' pace to tick up a little higher than they'd like in recent games, that's certainly not their M.O. and not something I expect to see continue. Note that Philadelphia has still limited seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It's a different story for Brooklyn as it has allowed three of its last four foes to knock down 43 or more field goals but it's unlikely the Sixers can take full advantage given their laundry list of current injuries. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-21-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. We won with Utah the last time these two teams met a couple of weeks ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. Utah continues to afford itself plenty of scoring opportunities, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Over its last two contests it has made good on 51 and 42 field goals and should give the Clippers all they can handle here. Los Angeles obviously plays at a considerably slower pace, getting off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six contests. The Clips made good on 44 field goals in Saturday's rout of the lowly Spurs but that marked its highest total of the season. In stark contrast, Utah has eclipsed that number on five previous occasions. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Spurs +7 v. Lakers | 92-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have now dropped four games in a row to open this road trip so they'll be looking to salvage the finale as they stay in Los Angeles for a back-to-back against the Lakers on Sunday night. I like their chances of at least keeping things competitive. Note that San Antonio, whether game-script related or not, continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities here on this trip. Over its last three contests, San Antonio has allowed just 79, 83 and 81 field goal attempts. It's been a much different story for the Lakers defensively as they've allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up 92 or more FG attempts. Four of Los Angeles' last five opponents have made good on more than 40 field goals, opening the door for a bounce-back performance from the Spurs offense tonight. Despite last night's poor showing against a tough Clippers defense, the Spurs have still knocked down 43+ field goals in five of their last seven contests. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nets | 115-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. While the Grizzlies are dealing with a number of key absences for this game I believe we're seeing an overreaction from the betting marketplace as a result. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Nets made good on more than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies continue to find their scoring opportunities, regardless who is in the lineup, getting off 91+ field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They should continue to do so here, noting that Brooklyn has yielded 91+ FG attempts to three consecutive opponents heading in. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 219.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks in this Eastern Conference matchup on Sunday evening. Charlotte continues to roll offensively, despite having little to show for it in the win column. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in five consecutive games and now faces a forgiving Wizards defense that has allowed six of its last eight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Washington has knocked down 41+ field goals in six of its last seven games and Charlotte has certainly proven to be vulnerable defensively with five of its last seven foes making good on 40+ field goals. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Spurs +8 v. Clippers | 97-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs have lost three straight games to open this road trip but I look for them to give the Clippers all they can handle on Saturday night in Los Angeles. San Antonio has actually done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities (relatively speaking of course) on the road this season. Only once have the Spurs allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts away from home and that came in a win in Indiana back on October 21st. Meanwhile, San Antonio has been making the most of its own scoring opportunities lately, making good on 43+ field goals in five of its last six contests. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down. They've attempted 81 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games overall, making good on 34 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. Only twice in their last 11 games have they knocked down more than 41 field goals which makes covering a lofty pointspread such as this one difficult on most nights. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Jazz v. Blazers OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Jazz were involved in a wild, high-scoring affair against the Suns last night, with that 'over' result snapping a brief two-game 'under' streak. I look for another relatively high-scoring contest on Saturday as the top two teams in the Northwest Division (currently) match up in Portland. While Utah's offense has been terrific, I'm still concerned about its lack of defense. Note that the Jazz have now allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Three of their last five opponents have gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts. The opportunities are there and I expect the Blazers to take advantage as they look to bounce back from a near-miss against the Nets two nights ago. While Portland has been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent by holding four consecutive foes to 85 or fewer FG attempts, that hasn't stopped the opposition from making good on 40+ attempts in three consecutive games. Noting that this was a favorable matchup for Utah all of last season (the Jazz scored 129, 120, 123 and 111 points in four meetings) and arguably plays faster and with more efficiency this season, the Blazers should have their hands full defensively in this one. That being said, Portland is back at virtually full strength and will undoubtedly have its legs under it as it wraps up a three-game homestand off a day's rest. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-19-22 | Wolves v. 76ers OVER 222.5 | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Minnesota's current road trip got off to a sluggish start with a 114-103 loss in Memphis but since then we've seen the T'Wolves put up 129 and 126 points in wins over the Cavs and Magic. They've actually been playing at a considerably slower pace than expected lately but I look for that pace to tick up for this one. Note that Philadelphia has been a little more forgiving defensively than usual in recent contests, yielding 88, 89, 94 and 90 field goal attempts to its last four opponents. That's worth noting as they had limited nine of their first 11 opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts this season. In that vein, the T'Wolves have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 47, 44, 40 and 42 field goals. Each of their last five opponents have hoisted up 88 or more field goal attempts. Despite playing on the second of back-to-back nights, the 76ers would appear poised to take advantage of their scoring opportunities in this matchup, noting they scored 120 and 133 points in two meetings with Minnesota last season and enter this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in three consecutive games - their longest such streak of the season to date. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We saw two relatively low-scoring affairs between these two teams last season but I expect a different story to unfold on Friday in New Orleans. Boston enters this game locked-in offensively, knocking down 46+ field goals in four of its last five games. Concerning, however, is the fact that the Celtics have allowed their last two opponents to get off a whopping 98 and 101 field goal attempts. In fact, seven of the C's last 10 opponents have hoisted up 90+ FG attempts. Not only that but seven of their last nine foes have knocked down more than 40 field goals. New Orleans certainly appears set to take advantage as it has made good on 42+ field goals in six of its last seven games and more than 40 in nine of its last 10 contests. However, like the Celtics, the Pelicans have proven vulnerable at times defensively, yielding 43+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-18-22 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 232.5 | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure any team has impressed me more offensively than the Thunder this season. After cashing with the 'over' in their most recent game - a 121-120 win in Washington two nights ago - I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five straight games heading into this contest. While they only managed to get off 81 field goal attempts in that win over the Wizards, they've still hoisted up 93+ field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have sputtered a bit offensively of late but should be able to get on track here, noting that Oklahoma City has been very forgiving defensively, allowing four of its last five opponents to make good on 44+ field goals. Five of the Thunder's last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts while the Grizzlies have eclipsed that number of attempts in six of their last seven contests so the opportunities should be there for the home side. Memphis has been all over the place defensively but I will note that three of its last six opponents have attempted more than 90 field goals - that after only three of its first nine foes got into the 90+ range. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-16-22 | Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs pulled out a 103-101 win over the Clippers last night despite the visitors shooting a blistering 54% from the field. I'm not going to knock the Dallas defense for that performance as Los Angeles quite simply shot the lights out. Incredibly, the Mavs actually held the Clips to just 64 field goal attempts. Dallas has now held four of its last five opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and should have little trouble locking down one of the worst offenses in the league in the Rockets on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs themselves have topped out at just 86 FG attempts over their last eight contests. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six games. Stunningly bad on offense, Houston has been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. On a more positive note, the Rockets have at least been able to keep their opponents pace in check to a certain extent, holding seven of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 228.5 | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Thunder and Wizards on Wednesday. Oklahoma City is running as free-flowing of an offense as you'll find in the NBA right now, hoisting up 102, 111, 93, 88 and 98 field goal attempts over its last five games. Better still, the Thunder have knocked down 41, 50, 52, 55 and 47 field goals over that stretch. There's little reason to expect Washington to offer much resistance as five of its last six opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts. While the Wizards haven't been pushing the pace to the same level as the Thunder, they can certainly get out and run and take advantage of the opportunities they're afforded. In that regard, they should have plenty here as the Thunder have allowed four of their last five opponents to get off 93+ FG attempts with three of their last four opponents knocking down 46+ field goals. The Wiz have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five contests. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Spurs +7.5 v. Blazers | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs got drilled by the Warriors in San Francisco last night but I expect them to put up more of a fight against the Blazers in Portland on Tuesday. San Antonio actually got off a whopping 100 field goal attempts in that setback. It simply couldn't make the most of its opportunities. At the same time, it did limit the Warriors to 'only' 88 field goal attempts but the Warriors shot the lights out, as they're known to do on a regular basis. Here, I don't expect San Antonio to suffer the same fate at the hands of the Blazers, who have made good on 38 or fewer field goals in four of their last five contests. Portland is having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, hoisting up 80 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last five games. Note that this matchup favored the Spurs last season with San Antonio scoring 114, 133, 130 and 113 points while going a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in four meetings. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Knicks v. Jazz OVER 230.5 | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it as the Knicks head to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz on Tuesday night, with both teams coming off losses. New York has gotten off a whopping 90+ field goal attempts in 10 of its 13 games this season while Utah has done the same in 10 of its last 14 contests. The problem is neither team has offered much resistance to the opposition defensively. New York has been lit up for more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Each of Utah's last seven opponents have knocked down 40+ field goals. We saw both teams shoot poorly in last season's two meetings in this series and as a result both games stayed 'under' the total. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-15-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 212 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks are mired in an incredible ATS slump right now having gone eight games without covering the spread. While I do look for them to win this game on Tuesday night, we're dealing with another inflated pointspread so I prefer to play the 'under' in this spot, which is set up well with the Clippers coming off a relatively high-scoring 'over' result last night and Dallas checking in off consecutive 'overs'. Note that these two teams met four times last season with Dallas topping out at 112 points in those contests with two of them being settled in the 90's. The Mavs continue to do a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, having held six of their last seven opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts with six of those foes knocking down fewer than 40 of those attempts. From an offensive standpoint, Dallas has hoisted up 86 of fewer FG attempts in seven straight games. The Clippers certainly won't shy away from a low-event game in a back-to-back spot. Note that they've gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts in all 14 games this season. They've also limited seven straight opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and four of their last five to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Suns +1.5 v. Heat | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat are coming off consecutive wins but those both came against the lowly Hornets. Here, they'll face a much tougher challenge as they host a Suns squad that checks in off a stunning 17-point loss in Orlando on Friday. I'm confident we'll see Phoenix 'get right' against a sagging Heat defense that has allowed five of its last eight opponents to knock down 41+ field goals, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. Also note that Miami has made good on 40 or fewer field goals in six of its last eight contests. The Suns are an impressive 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games after losing outright as a favorite, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (9*). | |||||||
11-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. After giving up 132 and 118 points in losing efforts to open this three-game road trip, I look for the Raptors to tighten things up considerably on Monday night in Detroit. Toronto has still held three of its last four opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, we find the Raptors down-trodden offensively missing a number of key contributors and having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Pistons have lost three games in a row, allowing 117 points or more in each contest. Like the Raptors, they're struggling offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. Noting that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Pistons last 34 games when coming off consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of 216.4 points, we'll confidently take that position here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs UNDER 226.5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the Cavs most recent game on Friday night against the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as they return home to host the T'Wolves. Minnesota is having a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. It has hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Cleveland is obviously a stingy defensive squad, yielding 83 or fewer FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last five games. Each of the Cavs last six opponents have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals. Minnesota has quietly been limiting its opponents' pace as well, permitting fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' for the Cavs offense but this isn't an ideal spot, returning home on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-12-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 115-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday but that was a 'bad beat' by very definition as the two teams needed overtime to get 'over' the total. Not much of an adjustment has been made to the total in advance of Saturday's rematch so I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again. Note that Charlotte continues to struggle offensively, making good on just 36, 33, 32, 42, 34 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last six games. In the high-water mark game over that stretch, it still scored 'only' 100 points in a loss against the Wizards. On the flip side, due to a number of key injuries, the Hornets have had to work to slow their opponents' pace in order to stay competitive and that has worked to a certain extent. They've limited six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. Miami shot just 37-of-83 in the first four quarters on Thursday. Of course, the Heat boast one of the best defenses in the league, limiting each of their last six opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down more than 40 field goals and that was Sacramento in a game where it scored 'only' 107 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 229 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Cavs are coming off consecutive high-scoring affairs, shooting north of 50% in both of those contests but also allowing the opposition to eclipse the 50% shooting mark. The pace certainly didn't dictate those totals of 236 and 247 points, however, with the Cavs getting off 83 and 86 field goal attempts while holding their opponents to just 79 and 76. Noting that Cleveland has held each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts and 40 or fewer made field goals, I look for the Cavs to lean on their defense to try to bring an end to their first losing streak of the season here. Golden State has limited four of its last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. The outlier came last time out - a game in which the Warriors held Sacramento to just 37 made field goals on 91 attempts (that game stayed 'under' the total). On the flip side, the Warriors opened the campaign by knocking down 41+ field goals in six straight games. Since then, they've eclipsed the 40 field goal mark only twice in five games. Also note that they've gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games. Finally, I'll point to the fact that last year's two meetings between these teams totalled just 193 and 178 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-10-22 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hornets are mired in a serious shooting slump right now, due in part to injuries to key players but also just as a result of what looks like a broken offense. They don't figure to pick themselves up off the mat against one of the league's best defensive teams in the Heat on Thursday. Note that Charlotte has knocked down just 36, 33, 32, 42 and 34 field goals over its last five games. In the one outlier the Hornets still scored only 100 points in an eight-point home loss against the Wizards. On a positive note, we have seen Charlotte limit its opponents scoring opportunities to a certain extent, yielding just 84, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The Hornets last two opponents, the Wizards and Blazers, have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't envision the Heat doing on Thursday. Miami is in a bit of a slump of its own, making good on 40 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. The pace still isn't there for the Heat as they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in nine straight games - of course that's partly by design. Few teams have been as stingy defensively as the Heat check in having allowed 76, 84, 86, 80 and 72 FG attempts over their last five games. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-11 in the Hornets last 34 games following consecutive ATS losses while the Heat have seen the 'under' go an incredible 10-1 in their last 11 home games after losing two of their last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Cavs -5 v. Kings | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Cavaliers as they look to bounce back from a two-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights ago. That was a back-to-back and three-in-four spot for Cleveland. Here, it should benefit from having had yesterday off in the California sunshine as it looks to get back on track against a road-weary Kings squad that wrapped a four-game in eight-night road trip that took it from East to West, wrapping up with Monday's stop in San Francisco. The Kings have been extremely vulnerable defensively this season - as expected - allowing 43, 44, 43 and 44 made field goals in regulation time over their last four contests and 41+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been held to 37, 41, 41 and 37 made field goals in regulation time over its last four contests and has gotten off 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six overall. That doesn't bode well as it prepares to face a smothering Cavs defense that has limited its last three opponents to 83, 87 and 79 FG attempts and seven of 10 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals this season. Cleveland has been thriving offensively, hitting 41+ field goals in seven of its last nine games including 42 or more in three of its last four contests. That's despite playing at a fairly slow pace (it has gotten off fewer than 90 FG attempts in six of its last seven games and 81, 84 and 83 over its last three contests). Here, the pace could tick up and in that situation I'm confident the Cavs can go off offensively. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a considerably lower total than we saw in the first matchup between these in-city rivals this season. That game was of the low-scoring variety with the Clippers prevailing by a 103-97 score. Here, I'm expecting a different story to unfold, at least as far as the total is concerned. Few teams are struggling to defend as badly as the Lakers. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 95+ field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes knocking down 41+ field goals. In fact, three of their last four opponents have made good on a whopping 47+ field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers come in on a bit of an offensive run, knocking down 40+ field goals in four straight games - despite getting off only 84, 80, 87 and 79 FG attempts over that stretch. On the flip side, we've yet to see the Clips really lock in defensively as they continue to miss super-stopper Kawhi Leonard due to injury. Seven of the Clippers last 10 opponents have made good on 40+ field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 15-4 in the Lakers last 19 road games (which this technically is) after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 237.8 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Spurs offense has cooled considerably following a hot start to the campaign while at the same time their defensive play has sagged, leading to a 1-3 ATS ledger over their last four games. While they did manage to eke out an ATS cover against Denver on Monday, I look for a different story to unfold as the Grizzlies roll into town on Wednesday. Memphis has done a nice job of pushing the pace offensively this season, hoisting up 91+ field goal attempts in each of its last three games and eight of its 11 contests overall. That spells trouble for a Spurs squad that has yielded 40+ made field goals in seven straight games, including a whopping 47+ in five of those contests. Meanwhile, San Antonio has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Last time out the Spurs attempted just 82 field goals but shot the lights out, ultimately earning the cover in a six-point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Here, I'm not convinced the Grizzlies will be as forgiving, noting that they've held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and seven of their last eight to 89 or less FG atttempts. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
11-09-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +7.5 | Top | 136-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Thunder in this same matchup on Saturday as Oklahoma City simply couldn't knock down its shots and ultimately fell by double-digits in Milwaukee. Having now dropped four straight meetings with the Bucks, the Thunder will obviously be up for this return match in Oklahoma City on Wednesday and I look for them to challenge for the outright win. While the Thunder have now dropped three consecutive games both SU and ATS, I'm still a believer in what they're doing and feel they have the perfect formula to cash tickets as sizable underdogs, as is the case tonight. Note that OKC has afforded itself plenty of scoring opportunities on a game-by-game basis, getting off 93+ field goal attempts in eight of 10 games to date (aided by overtime on one occasion). It has also made good on 41+ field goals in eight contests. On the flip side, the Thunder check in having limited seven of their last nine opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of their last five opponents has knocked down 40+ field goals. While most will look to back the Bucks in this bounce-back spot off an ugly loss to the Hawks in Atlanta two nights ago, I don't envision them winning by margin, noting that they've yielded 92+ field goal attempts to five of their last seven opponents. Meanwhile, they've yet to find their rhythm offensively, knocking down 38, 43, 41, 38 and 36 field goals over their last five games. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Nets v. Mavs UNDER 215.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Dallas at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The first matchup between these two teams this season featured a much higher posted total and that game ended up reaching a whopping 254 points, aided by overtime. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. Note that the Nets continue to struggle to just get shots off, let alone knock them down. While there was an outlier of a 50 made field goal performance in a rout of Washington on Friday (we still won with the 'under' in that game), they've been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. Now they face a stingy Mavericks defense that has held four straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and their last three foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, Dallas has gotten off 86 or fewer FG attempts in six straight contests. It shot the lights out in each of its last two games (50% or better in both contests) yet still scored 'only' 103 and 111 points. Brooklyn has been stingy in its own right, holding its last four opponents to 87, 89, 83 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Nuggets v. Spurs OVER 231 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and San Antonio at 9:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams just met on Saturday, posting an 'under' result as the Nuggets rolled to a 126-101 victory. We've seen an adjustment to the total in advance of Monday's rematch but I believe it's moving in the wrong direction. You could argue that San Antonio is the league's worst defensive team right now. The Spurs have allowed their last six opponents to stuff the boxscore, knocking down 52, 47, 40, 57, 42 and 53 field goals. While they did limit Denver to only 80 field goal attempts on Saturday, that was on the road. It's been a different story at home, where San Antonio has allowed four of its five opponents to get off 94+ field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Nuggets on the road, where they've allowed all five of their opponents to make good on 42+ field goals. Prior to Saturday's game, Denver had allowed each of its previous four opponents to attempt 90+ field goals. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Monday. You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams playing better defensive basketball than the Suns and 76ers right now. While both of last year's meetings went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight (at the time of writing), I believe the number will prove too high this time around. Phoenix wrapped up a split in a two-game home set with the Blazers, putting on a defensive clinic in Saturday's blowout victory, holding Portland to just 30-of-79 shooting. The Suns have now limited five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of nine foes to 38 or fewer made field goals this season. It's a similar story for the Joel Embiid-less 76ers. They held the Knicks to 37-of-80 shooting last time out and have limited each of their last four opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. On the flip side, however, they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in six of their last nine games overall. After a hot start to the season, the Suns shooting has cooled off as well as they've made good on 41, 36 and 35 field goals over their last three games, three of their four lowest FG totals of the season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-06-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. The Clippers have cashed in a favorite role in each of their last two games but I don't think we should make a habit of backing this team laying points. Note that Los Angeles continues to have a tough enough time getting shots off, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all nine games this season and 84 or fewer on seven occasions. Meanwhile, the Jazz are getting most of the attention due to their scoring prowess, but they can play some defense as well, limiting four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The only team that topped that number over that stretch was Memphis in a game Utah won by a score of 121-105. On the flip side, Utah checks in having made good on 42+ field goals in seven of 10 contests this season. The Clips are generally considered to be an elite defensive team but they've yet to really hit their stride in that regard this season, with the Rockets (twice) and Lakers being the only two teams they've held to fewer than 40 made field goals to date. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Blazers v. Suns -9 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. I think the Suns may have forgotten they actually had to show up to secure the revenge victory over the upstart Blazers last night. While Phoenix shot poorly, Portland seemingly couldn't miss as it pulled out another narrow two-point victory (it won the season's earlier meeting by the same margin at home). Here, I look for the Suns to bounce back. Phoenix has still held seven of its eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts this season. Last night marked the first time in four games that it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Meanwhile, Portland has still yet to get off more than 90 FG attempts in a game this season and while it has managed to slow its last two opponents, it has still yielded 91+ FG attempts to its opponents in four of its last seven games. Prior to this season, the Suns had reeled off three straight wins in this series, including a pair of double-digit victories on this floor. Expect Phoenix to deliver some payback on Saturday. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 232.5 | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are completely out of sorts offensively right now while both have also shown a pulse defensively of late. I believe this total will prove far too high. Note that Houston has managed to knock down 40+ field goals just once in its last seven games. Minnesota has made good on 41, 40, 37 and 39 field goals in its last four contests. Both teams have limited their opponents tempo to a certain extent lately with Houston holding its last five foes to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. The T'Wolves have yielded fewer than 90 field goal attempts to four straight opponents. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-05-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Thunder on Thursday as they couldn't contain the Nuggets in the fourth quarter in an eventual 12-point loss. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them, however, as they hit the road to face the Bucks in Milwaukee. Note that Oklahoma City continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, yielding 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in seven straight games. The Nuggets quite simply shot the lights out against them on Thursday, something I don't expect the banged-up Bucks to do in a back-to-back spot on Saturday. Milwaukee has been defending well, but still allows far too many opportunities for its liking, with four of its last five opponents getting off 92+ field goal attempts. The Thunder figure to be more than capable of taking advantage of those opportunities as they've made good on 41+ field goals in seven straight games and exactly 45 in each of their last two contests. While the Bucks won in a rout the last time these two teams met, a weaker Thunder squad took them to task in last year's meeting here in Milwaukee, losing by only seven points as a double-digit underdog. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Blazers v. Suns -10 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I would argue that no team has played as well as the Suns out of the gate this season. Of course, playing five of seven games at home has helped. They'll stay home in a revenge-minded role against the Blazers here - the team that handed them their lone loss of the season to date. Keep in mind, Portland is no longer at full strength, missing Damian Lillard and possible Anfernee Simons as well as he's questionable to play due to a foot injury. The Suns have incredibly knocked down 40+ field goals in all seven games this season. On the flip side, they've held six of seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of Phoenix's opponents has managed to get off more than 87 field goal attempts and that was Golden State in a game the Suns won by 29 points. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | 128-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 'over' has cashed in the Wizards last two games but the pace certainly hasn't dictated those results. Washington got off 81 and 78 field goal attempts in those two contests while limiting the 76ers to 82 and 84. Yet the two games totalled 229 and 232 points. The Wiz quite simply shot the lights out two nights ago but I don't anticipate a repeat performance here. Brooklyn continues to struggle to get shots off, hoisting up 82, 80 and 75 field goal attempts over its last three contests. On a positive note, the Nets have held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts and that should be the focus again here as they come off a loss to the Bulls at home (we won with Chicago in that game). Note that the 'under' is 23-12 in the Nets last 35 games where the total was set between 220 and 229.5 points going back to the start of last season, resulting in an average total of just 222.0 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-04-22 | Heat v. Pacers UNDER 227.5 | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While I realize the 'over' is 2-1-1 in each of these teams' last four games, respectively, I don't expect that short-term trend to continue here. Neither team is forcing the issue offensively with the Heat getting off fewer than 90 field goals attempts in seven straight games and the Pacers hoisting up 87 or fewer in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Miami has yielded just 76, 84 and 86 FG attempts to its last three opponents while Indiana has limited five consecutive opponents to 87 FG attempts or fewer. The last two meetings in this series both went 'over' the total but neither would have surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-03-22 | Nuggets v. Thunder +6 | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Thunder in the first matchup between these two teams in Denver back on October 22nd and I won't hesitate to come back with the same play in this rematch in Oklahoma City on Thursday. Obviously, Denver was in a tougher scheduling spot on that night, playing the second of back-to-backs off a big upset win over the defending champion Warriors on San Francisco the night previous. The Thunder were in the midst of a three-game losing streak to open the season, however. Here, OKC enters off four consecutive victories, both SU and ATS. The Thunder have been tremendously consistent offensively, stuffing boxscores to the tune of 41+ made field goals in each of their last six games and 44 or more in each of their last three. They've also done a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, relatively-speaking, holding six consecutive opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time. They've also limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, and that includes an overtime period against the Mavericks two games back. The Nuggets on the other hand have allowed three straight and four of their last five opponents to hoist up 90+ field goal attempts. Of their seven opponents so far this season, six managed to knock down 40+ field goals. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers OVER 227 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. It took a little while but the Lakers have essentially thrown defense out the window and coming off their first victory of the season, I don't expect them to change a thing as they welcome the Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena on Wednesday. Los Angeles' last three opponents have gotten off 92, 99 and 96 field goal attempts, scoring 110, 111 and 110 points over that stretch. I certainly expect the Pelicans to do a better job of taking advantage of an up-tempo affair, noting that they've knocked down 42+ field goals in five of their six games this season. The Lakers, despite their struggles, have made good on 40+ field goals in four of six contests this season. Here, they'll face a New Orleans squad that has yielded 92+ FG attempts to three of its last five opponents. The scoring opportunities will be there tonight, and I'm confident both teams can take full advantage. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Blazers | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got their lunch handed to them in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Jazz in Salt Lake City over the weekend. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Blazers in Portland. Note that Memphis continues to 'play the right way', limiting its last four opponents to 87, 83, 87 and 89 field goal attempts. Unfortunately, those four opponents shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Blazers doing off a scintillating shooting performance of their own. Portland has been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of its six games this season and last Friday's rout of the Rockets marked the first time all season the Blazers got off 90+ field goal attempts. Defensively, the Blazers haven't been good. They've yielded 40+ made field goals to their opponents in each of their last five games. Four of their last five opponents got off 91+ FG attempts. Look for the Grizzlies to take full advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Utah at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are off to a stunning 6-2 start to the season and are fresh off sweeping the Grizzlies in a two-game set in Salt Lake City. I can't help but feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday in Dallas, however. The Mavericks got a bit of a scare at home against the Magic on Sunday, playing in a back-to-back spot off an overtime loss to the Thunder the night previous. Now they're at home, off consecutive days off for the first time in a couple of weeks and I look for them to turn in a much sharper performance on Wednesday. Note that the Mavs have made good on 41+ field goals in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held all six opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts this season. The two previous times we've seen them play on 2+ days' rest this season they've shot a combined 50% from the field while holding those two opponents to just 79 and 76 FG attempts. The Jazz are just one game removed from allowing a ridiculous 50 made field goals against Memphis, and the Grizzlies were without Ja Morant in that contest. Five of their last seven opponents have gotten off 90+ FG attempts and should the Mavs get into that range on Wednesday, I'm confident we'll see them hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of Dallas' last five games as the Mavs have knocked down 41+ field goals in four of those five contests. Keep in mind, we saw two games go to overtime over that stretch. Dallas has limited each of its six opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time this season and I expect it to keep Utah in check to certain extent here as well. The Jazz had a stretch earlier this season where they got off 93+ field goal attempts in three consecutive games, knocking down 43+ field goals in each of those contests. Since then, they've gotten off just 90, 91, 87 and 89 FG attempts over their last four games. I'm certainly anticipating some regression here after they laid waste to an undermanned Grizzlies defense in a two-game set in Salt Lake City over the weekend, making good on 45 and 42 field goals in those two contests. Different story here as the Mavs build off Sunday's game in which they limited the Magic to only 37 made field goals (that contest still found its way 'over' the total). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 219 | 121-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Wednesday This is the back half of a home-and-home set between the Wizards and 76ers after Philadelphia pulled out a 118-111 victory on Monday. We're working with a higher posted total in this quick rematch and I believe it will prove too high. Note that the pace certainly didn't dictate a high-scoring affair on Monday. Philadelphia quite simply shot the lights out. The 76ers got off just 82 field goal attempts in that game. In fact, the 76ers have hoisted up 82 or fewer field goal attempts in five consecutive games and 84 or fewer in all eight contests this season. Similarly, the Wizards got off only 81 field goal attempts on Monday. They've made good on just 33, 36 and 38 field goals over their last three contests and have yet to attempt more than 90 shots in a game this season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Magic v. Thunder -3 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the short number with the Thunder as they host the reeling Magic on Tuesday night. Orlando checks in 1-6 on the season but the fact that it has gone 2-0 or 1-0-1 ATS in its last two games affords us a reasonable price to fade the Magic here. Orlando has made good on 37 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games and I'm not convinced it will have enough scoring opportunities to keep pace with the Thunder here. Note that Oklahoma City has been as consistent as it gets offensively, knocking down 41+ field goals in five straight games entering this contest. On the flip side, the Thunder have held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls are coming off consecutive losses but I like them to bounce back as they catch the Nets in a back-to-back spot off a rare win over the Pacers last night. Brooklyn is still just 2-5 on the season and needed to shoot the lights out to secure a win (but not a cover) against Indiana. Note that the Nets have still only managed to get off 89 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games this season. Last night, they hoisted up just 80 shots against the defensively-challenged Pacers. Defensively, Brooklyn has allowed 40+ made field goals in six of seven games. The only occasion where the Nets held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals it still lost by double-digits against Milwaukee. Chicago, on the other hand, has held three of its last four opponents to 39 or fewer made field goals. Only one of its seven opponents has managed to get off more than 86 field goal attempts and that was a game it won by 18 points against Boston. The last time these two teams met, Brooklyn won in a rout last March. Keep in mind, the Nets were playing with triple in-season revenge in that spot. Different story here. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
10-31-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | Top | 118-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers have picked themselves up after dropping the opening game of their current four-game road trip, posting consecutive wins (SU and ATS) over the Raptors and Bulls. Philadelphia is still having a tough enough time just getting shots off, however, noting that it has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven games this season. It has quite simply knocked down its shots at an incredibly high rate during its current road trip but I expect it to run into some trouble against the Wizards in Washington on Monday. The Wizards have quietly been locking down their opponents, yet to allow more than 41 made field goals in a game this season. They've limited three of their last five opponents to 81 or fewer field goal attempts. Yesterday, Washington fell by a score of 112-94 in Boston as it shot a miserable 38.8% from the field. Prior to that, the Wiz had knocked down 41+ field goals in all five games this season. Note that Washington took two of three meetings between these two teams last season and has won 30 of the last 50 matchups between these two franchises in the nation's capital. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-30-22 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 216 | 105-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Dallas at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. It was a true 'bad beat' for 'under' bettors in the Mavericks 117-111 overtime loss to the Thunder last night. Here, I don't think there's any reason to jump off the 'under' as the Mavs stay home to host the Magic. Orlando posted its first win of the season on Friday, snapping a five-game losing streak to open the campaign. Note that the Magic have gotten off more than 86 field goal attempts just once in six games this season. On the flip side, Orlando has done a pretty good job of slowing its opponents, yielding fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of six contests while also holding its last two opponents to just 36 and 33 made field goals. Dallas is of course an elite defensive team, limiting all five of its opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time this season. Last night, the Thunder quite simply shot exceptionally well from the field - the second time a Mavs opponent has done that in its last three games. I don't see that trend continuing here. Note that the Mavs offense doesn't play at all that quick of a pace, hoisting up 86 or fewer FG attempts in regulation time in four of five contests. Even with overtime last night, the Mavs still knocked down only 38 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 the last 10 times the Mavs have played for the third time in four nights, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 202.5 points. The 'under' is also 12-2 the last 14 times Dallas has played at home after losing two of its last three games, leading to an average total of 205.9 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets UNDER 235 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have struggled out of the gates this season although Indiana did pick up a much-needed win in a high-scoring affair in Washington last night. The Nets have had a tough enough time just getting their shots off on offense, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in regulation time in all five games to date. We have seen them clamp down on the opposition over their last two contests, limiting the Bucks to 88 field goal attempts and the Mavericks to just 73 in regulation time last time out. The Pacers two lowest FGA numbers of the season to date have come in their last two games. They've knocked down 38, 37 and 41 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, Indiana has limited four of its last five opponents to 87 FGA or fewer. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | Rockets +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers had their perfect 4-0 start to the season stopped in a blowout loss against the Heat two nights ago. Not only did they lose that game but they lost their best player in Damian Lillard to injury as well. Regardless whether Portland has Lillard or not, I like the Rockets catching a handful of points here. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time just getting shots off this season, attempting 88, 82, 84, 83 and 78 field goals through its first five games. On the flip side, the Blazers have yielded 41+ made field goals in four consecutive games with three of their five opponents getting off 91+ FG attempts this season. That's obviously the pace the Rockets prefer to play at, noting that they've hoisted up 90+ FG attempts in four straight games. They haven't shot well over that stretch but should bounce back here. Note that Houston is a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of its last five games, as is the case here, while Portland checks in 18-36 ATS in its last 54 games following a loss. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
10-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | 112-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Two nights ago, these two teams combined to score 228 points in a double-digit Raptors victory. That outcome had more to do with both teams shooting the lights out than the pace of play. The 76ers have now gotten off 80, 83, 84, 80 and 79 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. They've held four of their five opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. It's been a similar story for the Raptors. They've hoisted up 87 or fewer FG attempts in all five games while limiting the opposition to just 77, 80, 76, 83 and 79 FG attempts. You get the idea. I'm confident we'll see both teams do a better job of defending the perimeter in particular in Friday's rematch and here we'll note that the 'under' is 32-16 in the 76ers last 48 games when playing on the road off an outright loss as a road favorite, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 196.2 points. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-27-22 | Heat v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat will be playing the second of back-to-back nights off a lopsided win in Portland last night. Miami had little success breaking through against Golden State in two matchups last season, making good on just 37 field goals in each contest. While the Warriors have looked vulnerable defensively in the early going this season, they do come in the more rested team and off a 134-105 dismantling at the hands of the Suns (we won with Phoenix in that game) two nights ago, I'm confident we'll see them come out much sharper on Thursday. Note that this has all the markings of a game Steve Kerr's Warriors would like to 'manage' noting that they'll head out on a five-game in seven-night road trip that begins Friday in Charlotte. While Miami did score 119 points in last night's victory, the Heat have played at a reasonably slow pace, getting off 80, 92, 76, 83 and 87 field goal attempts through their first five games this season. In the outlier they hoisted up 92 field goal attempts but still scored 'only' 104 points in a loss against Boston (that game totalled just 215 points). Defensively, Miami has been as locked-in as any team in the Association, holding each of its last four opponents to 87 or fewer FG attempts while yielding just 37, 34 and 34 made field goals over its last three contests. The Warriors last three opponents have quite simply shot the lights out but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Heat in a back-to-back, three-in-four and five-in-seven situation here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 232 | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met two nights ago in Houston with the Rockets pulling off the minor upset in a 114-108 victory, cruising comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold from a totals perspective on Wednesday, however. That was a slow-paced game for Houston - relatively speaking - as it got off just 90 field goal attempts marking a season-low. Yet the Rockets still scored 114 points. I'm confident we'll see the pace tick up here. Houston opponents have been 'filling it up' in the early going this season, making good on 45, 45, 48 and 44 field goals through four games. Monday's game marked the first time this season Utah held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals, but again, it still allowed 114 points. The Jazz have hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 FG attempts over their last three games. Even in their season-opener when they got off just 83 FG attempts, they still scored 123 points in a rout of the Nuggets. In fact, Utah has made good on 42+ field goals in all four games this season. While Monday's contest between these two teams stayed 'under' the total, we're dealing with a lower total this time around and keep in mind, we're just one matchup removed from a game that produced 259 points between these two last March. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Rockets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Houston at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets got the better of the Jazz by a 114-108 score in Houston two nights ago but I look for Utah to answer right back on Wednesday back in Salt Lake City. Despite dropping that contest, the Jazz continued their streak of hot shooting to open the campaign, knocking down 44 field goals - their fourth straight game hitting 42+ field goals. Having hoisted up 111 (aided by overtime), 98 and 93 field goal attempts over their last three contests, I'm confident the Jazz can overwhelm a weak Rockets defense here. Even in Monday's win, Houston still allowed Utah to get off 93 FG attempts, as mentioned. The Rockets have now yielded their first four opponents' 45, 45, 48 and 43 made field goals. On the flip side, Houston has knocked down just 36 and 38 field goals over its last two games. Even with a number of new faces in the lineup, the Jazz are clearly comfortable operating in an extremely fast-paced environment. Despite Monday's victory, I think the Rockets are still figuring things out with their youthful roster. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are just 13-24 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog priced between +3.5 and +9.5 points, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 9.4 points in that situation. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Nets most recent game - a wild, 134-124 loss in Memphis two nights ago. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as I don't believe the pace Brooklyn, or Milwaukee for that matter, has been playing at warrants such a high posted total. Note that Brooklyn has hoisted up just 89, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through its first three games. It quite simply shot the lights out against the Grizzlies on Monday - something I don't expect it to do again here, noting that the Bucks have only played two games, but have appeared to be in midseason form defensively, allowing just 36 made field goals in each contest. Like the Nets, the Bucks haven't exactly been pushing the pace at every opportunity. Albeit with a small sample size, they've gotten off just 84 and 85 FG attempts in their first two games but like the Nets, did shoot the lights out in their most recent contest, that coming against the lowly Rockets. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-26-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Few teams have been as locked-in defensively as the Raptors in the early going this season. They check in having held their first four opponents to 77, 80, 76 and 83 field goal attempts and have yet to allow more than 38 made field goals in any of those contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in three of their four games to date. Offensively, it's been a bit of a struggle. Toronto has topped out at 41 made field goals and that came in a game where it scored just 105 points in a loss in Brooklyn. The 76ers have struggled offensively out of the gate as well, getting off no more than 84 field goal attempts in any of their four contests. They shot exceptionally well in their opener against the Celtics but it came at the expense of their defense in a 126-117 loss (we won with the Celtics in that game). Only one of Philadelphia's four opponents has reached 90 FG attempts and that was Indiana last time out, scoring just 106 points in that game. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Warriors v. Suns -2.5 | 105-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams enter Tuesday's showdown sporting 2-1 records, although they've looked very different in doing so. Hidden in the Warriors positive start has been their poor defensive play. They've allowed two of their three opponents to get off 93+ field goal attempts with all three of the teams they've faced having knocked down 40+ field goals. In the one game where they did limit the Nuggets to only 86 field goal attempts, they still allowed a whopping 128 points in a losing effort. The Suns, meanwhile, are in midseason form defensively. They've held their first three opponents to just 75, 82 and 82 FG attempts, allowing 36 or fewer made field goals in all three contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has knocked down 40, 43 and 43 field goals itself. Despite getting little offensive production from DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul, the Suns still scored 112 points in a 17-point win over the full-strength Clippers last time out. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Clippers v. Thunder +9.5 | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Thunder are missing two of their best players in Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but it's not as if the Clippers are setting the world on fire in the early going this season, and they have their own key absence to deal with in Paul George. Oklahoma City enters this contest still winless on the campaign at 0-3 although all three games have been relatively close (decided by 10 points or less). Over their last two games, the Thunder held the Nuggets and T'Wolves - two high-powered offensive teams - to just 85 and 88 field goal attempts, respectively. Unfortunately both of those opponents quite simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate the Clippers doing the same here. Note that Los Angeles has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in all three games, making good on just 37, 41 and 36 of those shots. The Thunder have afforded themselves far more opportunities at the very least, hoisting up 99, 94 and 94 FG attempts. In this early stage of the season, the Clippers haven't exactly been locking down the opposition, yielding their first three opponents 94, 85 and 93 FG attempts. Noting that these two teams have split their last four meetings with three of those four contests being decided by five points or less, I'll grab the points with the home side on Tuesday. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
10-25-22 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 223 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the Pistons first three games this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday in Washington. Both of these teams are coming off losses where the opposition stuffed the boxscore with Detroit allowing 124 points in Indiana and Washington yielding 117 points in Cleveland. The Pistons have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals in all three games despite getting off 90+ attempts in each contest. Noting that Washington has played at a relatively slow pace, hoisting up 91, 80 and 87 field goal attempts through three games this season, there's reason to believe Detroit's scoring opportunities could be even more limited here. After yielding a whopping 103 FG attempts to the Pacers last time out, I'm confident we'll see the Pistons try to 'ugly this one up' in an effort to salvage something from this three-game road trip. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the last seven meetings in this series while the 'under' is also 55-35 in the Pistons last 90 road games following consecutive road losses, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-24-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are content to play at a relatively slow pace, noting that the Nuggets have gotten off 83, 86 and 85 field goal attempts in their first three games while the Blazers are in a similar boat, attempting 88, 82 and 84 field goals in their first three contests. We did see Denver look somewhat vulnerable defensively on Saturday against Oklahoma City (we won with the Thunder plus the points in that game) but that was in a tough back-to-back and three-in-four spot off an exhausting 128-123 road win over the Warriors the night previous. Prior to that, the Nuggets had held the opposition to 83 and 88 field goal attempts in their first two contests. Denver's first three opponents have shot exceptionally well from the field, with all three making good on exactly 42 field goals. I don't think the Nuggets face the same challenge here, however, as the Blazers are still finding their way offensively, knocking down 39, 36 and 37 field goals in their first three contests. This will be the fifth meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season and as I often say, familiarity tends to lend itself to relatively low-scoring basketball. Note that only twice in those previous four meetings did either side get off more than 88 FG attempts with Denver getting to 90 once and Portland reaching 91 on one occasion (those two contests still totalled only 219 and 216 points). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-24-22 | Nets v. Grizzlies UNDER 229.5 | 124-134 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Most will be anticipating a track meet between these two star-studded squads on Monday night in Memphis. I'm not so easily convinced. After dropping both meetings last year, and allowing Memphis to dictate the tempo in each of those contests, I look for Brooklyn to make a concerted effort to slow things down on Monday. Note that the Nets have topped out at 89 field goal attempts across their six games to date (including the preseason). They scored 'only' 108 points in that game where they got off 89 FG attempts. Brooklyn checks in having held three of its last four opponents, again including the preseason, to 84 FG attempts or fewer. The Grizzlies have gone from 108 field goal attempts, to 98 to 79 in their three contests this season. On the flip side, they've allowed the opposition to get off 109, 93 and 90 attempts from the field. I do think the Grizzlies are a much better defensive team than they've shown, having allowed their first three opponents to knock down 44, 44 and 45 field goals. I think the slower pace of the Nets will aid them in getting their defense a little more settled in this one, noting that Brooklyn has been limited to 36, 29, 43, 37, 40 and 38 made field goals in its six games going back to the start of the preseason. The high-water mark of 43 came in a game where the Nets still scored just 107 points. In last season's two meetings with the Grizzlies, the Nets got off 82 and 87 FG attempts. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. I'm not convinced the pace will be there to warrant a total in the 220's on Sunday night in Los Angeles. Phoenix has incredibly limited its first two opponents to just 75 and 74 field goal attempts in regulation time. Opponents are having a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Clippers don't figure to be the opponent to break through as they're still finding their way with last night's 41 made field goals serving as their high-water mark going back over their last five games, including preseason action. It's a similar story for the Suns as they're off to a 1-1 start, knocking down 40 and 39 field goals in regulation time in those two contests. They made 40 field goals in a come-from-behind win over the Mavericks to open the season (scoring only 107 points in the process) and that's their highest total across five games, including the preseason. Four meetings between these two teams last season totalled 206, 195, 199 and 222 points. I believe tonight's total will prove too high, noting that the 'under' is 18-5 in the Suns last 23 games following a loss and better still, 12-1 in their last 13 contests off a road defeat. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-23-22 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 224.5 | 106-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected on Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles. The Blazers had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Suns last time out, attempting just 74 field goals in regulation time, yet still managed to prevail in overtime thanks to their solid defensive play. Off to a perfect 2-0 start this season, the Blazers have limited their first two opponents to just 85 and 84 field goal attempts. Now they face an inefficient Lakers offense that has managed to knock down 40 field goals once in two games but needed 93 FG attempts to reach that total. The problem that could be looming for the Blazers is that their own offense has been lukewarm. They've made good on just 39 and 36 field goals through two games and going back to the start of the preseason have topped out at 83 FG attempts. Only one of four meetings between these two teams last season got 'over' 212 points and that was a game where Portland got off a whopping 102 FG attempts. This marks the second-highest posted total in the last five matchups in this series and I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-22-22 | Thunder +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Nuggets were busy upsetting the Warriors in San Francisco last night, the Thunder have been idle since opening the season with a narrow loss in Minnesota on Wednesday. Nothing that Oklahoma City is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS win but SU loss on the road, we'll confidently back it here. While the Thunder lost their opener, I did like the fact that they managed to push the pace and get off 99 field goal attempts. On the flip side, they held what looks like an explosive T'Wolves offense to only 39 made field goals on 94 attempts. Going back to the preseason, the Thunder have yet to allow an opponent knock down more than 41 field goals in five games against NBA competition (they played two preseason games against non-NBA foes). As for the Nuggets, they're off to a 1-1 start to the campaign, yielding 42 made field goals in each contest despite limiting both of their opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts. Nothing came easy for the Nuggets in this series last season as they only managed a 2-2 split with their two wins coming by a combined 10 points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
10-21-22 | Bulls v. Wizards +1 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I have the Wizards pegged as a potential surprise team in the Eastern Conference this season and I like the way this spot sets up for them in their home-opener against the Bulls on Friday. Chicago pulled off a stunner in its season-opener two nights ago, leading most of the way in a 116-108 win over the Heat in Miami. We won with the 'over' in that contest, noting that the Bulls had a fantastic preseason from an offensive standpoint but also some warts to deal with at the defensive end of the floor. Surprisingly, Chicago was able to contain Miami's offense to the tune of just 80 field goal attempts. Yet the Heat still put up 108 points. Keep in mind, during its preseason slate, Chicago yielded its four opponents 93, 88, 96 and 92 FG attempts. We know the Wizards can push the pace, noting that they got off 92 FG attempts in their 114-107 win in Indiana two nights ago. I like Washington's depth a whole lot more than I do Chicago's. The Bulls needed DeMar Derozan's heroics to pull out the victory in Miami. Here, I'm not convinced his scoring exploits will be enough. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Clippers v. Lakers OVER 223.5 | 103-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Clippers and Lakers at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers showed very little interest in controlling the tempo of their opponents last season and we saw more of the same in the preseason and again in their season-opener against the Warriors two nights ago. Even with Steve Kerr limiting his starters minutes, the Warriors still got off 99 field goal attempts, making good on 45 of them. In the preseason, the Lakers yielded their opponents 103, 105, 95, 88, 97 and 94 field goal attempts with all but one of those opponents knocking down 41 or more (the exception was a game where they still gave up 119 points against the Suns). I don't anticipate the Clippers coming out of the gates in midseason form defensively as they took part in only three preseason tilts against NBA opposition, allowing 40+ made field goals in each of their last two contests (those games totalled 236 and 241 points). On both occasions where the Clips got off 80+ FG attempts in the preseason, they managed to make good on at least 40. Given the pace the Lakers have yielded to the opposition, the opportunities should certainly be there for this Clips offense on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 14-9 in the Lakers last 23 games following a loss against a division opponent and better still, 8-3 when that loss came by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We cashed a ticket fading the 76ers on opening night in Boston but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back them as they return home to host the Bucks on Thursday. I'm just not sure that Milwaukee gets enough scoring opportunities to ultimately keep Philadelphia within arm's reach in this game. Note that the Bucks struggled to get their shots off during the preseason. They topped out at 41 made field goals in a 10-point loss to the Hawks but they needed 97 field goal attempts to get there. Outside of that they were limited to just 37, 33, 37 and 34 made field goals in their other four preseason tilts. The 76ers made good on 40-of-80 FG attempts in their opener against the Celtics. Boston simply shot the lights out in that contest as Philadelphia did limit it do just 82 FG attempts. Milwaukee has won three straight meetings here in Philadelphia. I look for that streak to end here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday night in Philadelphia. The Bucks went winless in five preseason games. No big surprise as wins and losses mean little during the preseason, especially for perennial contenders like the Bucks. That being said, what does have some carry-over effect from the preseason to the regular season is pace and efficiency at both ends of the floor. Milwaukee made good on 37, 41, 33, 37 and 34 field goals in its five exhibition contests. It got off more than 86 field goal attempts just twice in those five games, and scored 'only' 103 and 113 points in those two contests. While I do think Milwaukee can 'flip the switch' from a defensive standpoint and step up the intensity against an opponent that will certainly draw its intensity, I'm not sure we see the Bucks offense come roaring out of the gates. Philadelphia will obviously be in a foul mood after dropping its season-opener in Boston two nights ago. The 76ers allowed a whopping 126 points in that defeat although the pace didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result. Note that Boston actually got off only 82 FG attempts. Both teams simply shot the lights out in that contest, as Philadelphia contibuted 40-of-80 shooting. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed five of the last seven times the 76ers have come off a road loss against a division opponent while the 'under' has also gone a profitable 44-39 the last 83 times Philadelphia has come off an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect this showdown between two NBA title contenders in the Mavs and Suns to have a bit of an old-school feel to it on Wednesday night, and that should lend itself to a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting. The Mavs played only three preseason games, allowing 32, 39 and 41 made field goals with the latter coming in a game where the Jazz got off 91 field goal attempts (and still scored only 101 points). For their part, the Mavs got off 85 or fewer FG attempts in all three games, knocking down 35, 35 and 38 field goals along the way. The Suns opened their preseason slate with a stunning 134-124 loss to the Adelaide 36ers. In three preseason tilts against NBA opposition they limited their foes to 82, 82 and 88 FG attempts with none of those teams knocking down more than 37 field goals. Offensively, the Suns topped out at 39 made field goals and that was in a game where they got off a whopping 105 FG attempts against the Lakers. Expect this 'battle of the titans' to have a defensive flavor on Wednesday. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Blazers v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may surprise you to find out that the Kings actually finished with a better record than the Blazers last season and were considerably stronger against the Western Conference. While Sacramento only held a three-game advantage over Portland overall, it was nine games better against the West. While I don't put a lot of stock in preseason results, there are exceptions to that rule. The Kings went a perfect 4-0 during their exhibition schedule, making good on 42, 45, 36 and 46 field goals in those four contests. The outlier was a game in Phoenix where they shot 41% from the field but still pulled out a one-point victory. On the flip side, the Kings did a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, something we're certainly not used to seeing when it comes to this franchise. Only one of their four preseason opponents got off 80+ field goal attempts and that was the Lakers in a game where they scored only 86 points on 29-of-81 shooting. There are a lot of mouths to feed when it comes to the Blazers offense, especially with the addition of Jerami Grant from the Pistons. Portland went winless against NBA opposition during the preseason (it did post a victory over Maccabi Ra'anana) and it wasn't pretty as it knocked down just 31, 36, 29 and 32 field goals, with the low-water mark coming in a 126-94 loss to the Kings. It's not as if Portland sent its 'B' squad to the court in that game against Sacramento either. Its starting five consisted of Nurkic, Grant, Simons, Lillard and Hart - likely the same lineup we'll see tonight. All five played 22+ minutes in that game against Sacramento. Maybe the Blazers 'flip the switch' on Wednesday but I'm not betting on it. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 215.5 | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams were 'filling it up' all preseason long and I expect more of the same as they match up in Wednesday's season-opener. The Bulls won three of their four preseason tilts, scoring at least 115 points in all four games. In those contests they knocked down 43, 50, 43 and 50 field goals, without any of those affairs being aided by overtime. Those are staggering results when you consider the pace most teams tend to play at during the preseason. Defensively, there are warts to deal with, however. Note that Chicago allowed its opponents to get off 93, 88, 96 and 92 field goal attempts in those four games. The Heat enjoyed a successful preseason as well, reeling off four straight victories after opening with a loss to the T'Wolves. Like the Bulls, their offense appeared to be in midseason form, making good on 42, 41, 37, 38 and 40 field goals. The pace Miami played at over the course of those five games was notable as it hoisted up 94+ FG attempts on three occasions. This is one of the lowest totals on Wednesday's board and I don't think it's warranted. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
10-19-22 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Only one game separated these two teams near the Eastern Conference basement last season with Detroit holding that narrow advantage. Both franchises continue to look to the future. Here, in Tuesday's season-opener I believe the Pistons are being given a little too much respect. Detroit may have plenty of young talent on its roster but it couldn't get a stop in the preseason, allowing its four opponents to knock down 46, 38, 45 and 46 field goals. The outlier came in a contest the Pistons still lost by six points in New Orleans. On the flip side, the Pistons made good on just 33, 31, 35 and 40 field goals in those four games. The latter performance took a whopping 102 FG attempts to get there and Detroit still lost that contest by 15 points against Memphis. The Magic went 4-1 in the preseason and actually showed a pulse on defense, limiting the opposition to just 36, 34, 35, 37 and 35 made field goals. It yielded its opponents more than 82 FG attempts only once in those five games. We saw steady improvement from Orlando offensively over the course of the preseason, culminating with it knocking down 39+ field goals in each of its last three games. Now it gets a boost with the expected return of Jalen Suggs for Tuesday's opener. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I love everything about the Lakers entering the new season, in a very strange sort of way. Consider them a beautiful mess under first-year head coach Darvin Ham. Here, we're catching more than a handful of points with Los Angeles in a spot few expect much out of it on the road against the defending champion Warriors. Of course, Golden State is a well-oiled machine but like I said, I'm more intrigued by the Lakers at this early stage of the season. There's room for improvement at the center position with Damian Jones, formerly of the Kings and Thomas Bryant, who comes over from the Wizards two true wild cards. Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, for now. Russell Westbrook might be injured. He might start. He might come off the bench. Again, another complete wild card. And then there's the whole Pat Beverley situation. As odd as it may sound I believe it all adds up to a far more interesting and potentially improved Lakers squad and this is a perfect opportunity to make a statement right out of the gate. Interestingly, the Lakers check in 27-19 ATS the last 46 times they've played on the road with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Warriors are a mediocre 33-35 ATS in their last 68 contests when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, which is also the situation here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm higher on the Celtics than some entering the new season and I like their chances of picking up a statement win against a division rival in Tuesday's home opener. While Boston's big offseason acquisition Danilo Gallinari is now sidelined for the season, the cupboard is still well-stocked. Robert Williams is also injured but there's depth at the power forward position with veteran Al Horford and Grant Williams, who showed some positive signs during the preseason. I also like the bench duo of Payton Pritchard and Derrick White to make big strides this season. The 76ers went undefeated in four preseason games so the argument could be made that they're already in midseason form. I don't put a ton of stock in NBA preseason wins and losses though. I'm simply not as high on the 76ers depth as I am on the Celtics. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia has been outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points as a road underdog going back to the start of last season (20-game sample size). Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -157 | 103-90 | Loss | -157 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston moneyline over Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not going to bother messing with the points in this one as we're being offered a reasonable enough price to back the Celtics on the moneyline. This series has appeared bound to go the distance since the opening tipoff and I've seen nothing to change my opinion on that, even with the Warriors winning the last two games in convincing fashion. Boston is back home for Game 6 on Thursday, where it has gone a perfect 3-0 following a loss in these playoffs and I'm confident we'll see it hold serve with a big bounce-back effort here. Keep in mind, the Celtics couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5 (31-of-75 shooting) yet still lost by 'only' 10 points. Golden State is just 3-5 when playing on the road off a win in these playoffs and I look for it to fall short again here. Take Boston moneyline (8*). | |||||||
06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I stayed away from the total in Game 5 of this series as I had the suspicion we may seen the 'zig-zag' totals pattern deviate for a game. Here, I won't hesitate to jump back in with a play on the 'over' following consecutive relatively low-scoring affairs. Boston couldn't have performed any worse offensively in Game 5. It had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone making them, ultimately knocking down just 31-of-75 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Golden State has seemingly figured out that speeding things up offensively can work to its advantage against a Celtics defense that much prefers to grind it out. The Warriors have now gotten off 88+ field goal attempts in three of the first five games in this series. They've also made good on 40+ field goals in consecutive games. While I do expect them to find continued success here in Game 6, I also feel the Celtics are favored for a reason and should enjoy a strong bounce-back performance, particularly at the offensive end of the floor. I really feel that the Celtics offensive woes over the last six quarters in particular have had more to do with their own poor shooting rather than anything the Warriors have been doing defensively. Noting that Boston has averaged 40-of-86 shooting here at home this season, I'm confident it can do its part to help this total along. Take the over (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |