Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Knicks in the first meeting between these two teams way back in October before passing on their next matchup in December - a game New York lost by seven points in Boston. Here, I won't hesitate to get behind the Knicks again as they look to build some positive momentum off a win over the Pacers two nights ago. New York will be without both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose for this one. I don't mind that as it allows Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett to step up, just as they did all last season. The Celtics have been a disappointment for the most part again this season and we just cashed a ticket fading them in their outright loss to the Spurs at home last night. Most will likely be looking to back Boston in this bounce-back spot but I don't see it. Note that the Celtics are just 7-12 SU on the road this season and check in a miserable 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlantic Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points. New York on the other hand is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Often times we see teams rise to the occasion without their best players and I believe that will be the case with the Heat on Wednesday as they look to snap a two-game losing streak with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines. Of course, tonight's opponent has its own injury issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum remaining out. The Blazers did step up on Monday, securing a wild 136-131 come-from-behind win over the Hawks with Anfernee Simons going off for 43 points. Don't count on a repeat performance here, noting that Portland has won just four of its last 18 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Blazers right now as they've given up 130+ points in three of their last four games, allowing five straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the field. Even without Butler, the Heat still have Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro capable of stepping up and taking advantage of the Blazers dismal defense. Here, we'll note that Miami is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.7 points in that situation. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
01-05-22 | Spurs +8 v. Celtics | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I resisted the temptation to back the slumping Spurs catching a handful of points in Toronto last night as they dropped their fourth straight game with the loss coming in blowout fashion. I expect a much better performance from San Antonio on Wednesday as it goes up against a Celtics squad it has given plenty of problems, going 3-1 in the last four meetings with the lone loss coming by just three points. The Spurs are expected to have underrated star Dejounte Murray back from health and safety protocols for this game. All indications are that he could have returned in one of the last few games but the Spurs wisely decided not to rush him back. Boston is coming off consecutive wins to open its current homestand and will have Jayson Tatum back for this one. Note, however that the Celtics are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a home win, outscored by 1.2 points on average in that spot. They're also just 8-20 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (9*). | |||||||
01-04-22 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 218 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. With the Grizzlies riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 127, 114, 104, 118 and 118 points over that stretch it's going to take quite an effort to knock them off course. The Cavs check in having allowed 108, 110, 121 and 104 points over their last four contests so Memphis should have plenty of runway to keep rolling on Tuesday. With that being said, Cleveland has also scored 118 and 108 points in its last two games and as a short home favorite, isn't likely to back down from the challenge here. Note that the 'over' is 10-1 with the Grizzlies playing on the road off a double-digit road win over the last two seasons, as is the case here following last night's rout of the Nets. That situation has produced an average total of a whopping 242.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 28-15 with the Cavs playing at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points over the last three seasons with that spot resulting in an average total of 220.0 points. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 253 points in Memphis back in October. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-03-22 | Pistons v. Bucks -16 | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bucks have had no trouble brushing aside the Pistons in two previous meetings this season, holding them to 89 and 93 points in wins by 28 and 21 points. Let's take a closer look at that most recent matchup - a 114-93 Milwaukee win. In that game, the Pistons actually made double-digit three-pointers (11), got to the free throw line two more times and turned the ball over seven fewer times. Yet they still lost by 21 points. Here, the Pistons are catching the Bucks at absolutely the wrong time. Milwaukee has put up its three highest point totals of the entire season in its last three games, winning by 17, 18 and 23 points. There's no reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Bucks on Monday as they look to take advantage of a Pistons squad that is still missing a number of key contributors (it is expected to get a few players back for this game). Here, we'll note that Detroit is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a home win, outscored by an average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, check in 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games against division opponents, outscoring them by an average margin of 14.1 points. Take Milwaukee (9*). | |||||||
01-02-22 | Magic v. Celtics UNDER 216.5 | 111-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Keeping in mind the Magic are just two games removed from their lowest scoring performance of the entire season while the Celtics posted their lowest point total of the season just two games back, not to mention the fact that these two teams combined to score only 171 points in their first meeting this season, I believe this total will prove too high. The Celtics caught the Suns flat-footed in a matinee affair in Boston on Friday, putting up 120 points in a double-digit win. They're still averaging just 107.5 points per game at home this season. The Magic, meanwhile, check in averaging just a shade over 103 points per contest on the road. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-5 with the Celtics playing in the role of favorite this season with that situation producing an average total of just 105.6 points. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
01-01-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Pistons | 116-117 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Saturday. With Dejounte Murray expected to return from Covid protocol the Spurs are in a bounce-back smash spot against the undermanned Pistons on Saturday night. Note that San Antonio has gone 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following a double-digit loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Pistons are just 25-40 ATS the last 65 times they've sought revenge for a same-season loss, which is the situation here after they were blown out in San Antonio on Boxing Day. While the Spurs have run into trouble over their last two games, those came against two elite teams in the Jazz and Grizzlies. Note that while they've posted a 7-10 SU record on the road this season, they've actually outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
01-01-22 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Three of the Bulls four highest scoring totals of the season have come in their last five games and they're fresh off a thrilling 108-106 win in Indiana yesterday. The fact that both the Bulls and Wizards are coming off 'under' results helps keep Saturday's total in a very reasonable range. Consider that these two teams are just one meeting removed from a game that totalled 263 points. Washington is just three games removed from its second-highest scoring total of the season. While it did allow just 93 points in its most recent game that came against an undermanned Cavs squad due to Covid protocols. Prior to that, the Wiz had given up 117, 117 and 119 points over their last three games. Here, we'll note that the last 28 times the Wiz have played at home off an 'under' result, they have seen an average total of 234.0 points scored. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I'm not anticipating a track meet between the undermanned Clippers and the Raptors on Friday night. Note that Toronto will have most of its players back for this game after dealing with Covid protocols and that means plenty of shuffling with its rotation for head coach Nick Nurse. The Raps have had some terrific offensive outbursts lately but still average just north of 104 points per game at home this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers have allowed two of their three lowest point totals of the season over their last four games and they'll need to continue to play that style with Paul George and a host of other key contributors sidelined. The Clips average right around 103 points per game on the road this season with those contests averaging 207.1 total points. Los Angeles has shot 40.7% or worse in consecutive games while Toronto checks in having shot 43.7% or worse over its last two contests. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-29-21 | Mavs v. Kings +1.5 | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Dallas at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. This is an ideal revenge spot for the Kings after they suffered a six-point loss in Dallas back on Halloween. The Mavs are far from full strength now, continuing to deal with Covid protocols that have kept a number of key contributors out of the lineup, including Luka Doncic. The Kings went through similar issues but have come out on the other side and enter this game off a slump-busting 117-111 win over the Thunder. Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off a pop-up 15-point win over the reeling Blazers in Portland as it took full advantage of an awful defensive performance on the part of the home side. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
12-28-21 | Wizards v. Heat -6 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Washington at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat on Tuesday as they aim for their fourth consecutive victory. Both teams are dealing with Covid issues but who isn't these days? The Heat check in allowing just a shade over 100 points per game at home this season where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of around eight points. The Wizards, meanwhile, did register consecutive wins to wrap up their most recent road trip but remain just 9-11 away from home this season where they give up an average of over 108 points per game. The Heat have taken the last two matchups with the Wizards here in Miami by 27 and 15 points. Note that the Heat are coming off a 10-point win over the Magic last time out that saw them give up their lowest point total of the entire season (83 points). The Wiz haven't allowed fewer than 100 points in a game since way back on November 26th against Oklahoma City. Take Miami (9*). | |||||||
12-27-21 | Jazz v. Spurs OVER 228.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and San Antonio at 8:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup on December 17th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Monday's rematch. The Jazz are coming off a close call against the undermanned Mavs on Saturday. Three of their six highest point totals allowed this season have come over their last five games. Now they'll have to contend with a Spurs squad that has registered its three highest point totals of the season over its last five contests. Also note, however, that three of San Antonio's four highest point totals given up this season have also come in its last eight games. The Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell for Monday's game (back) but he's been in and out of the lineup numerous times over the last couple of seasons so they're accustomed to playing without him. Outside of that, the Jazz and Spurs have remained two of the most unscathed teams when it comes to Covid protocols. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-26-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 212 | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Nuggets are just two games removed from their highest-scoring performance of the season but are coming off consecutive subpar showings, putting up only 94 and 107 points in back-to-back losses prior to the Christmas break. Here, I look for them to bounce back against the Paul George-less Clippers. Two of the Clippers six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four contests. Paul George is now sidelined indefinitely but the Clips should have Luke Kennard back in the lineup on Sunday. Here, they'll face a Nuggets squad that has consistently been allowing plenty of points, giving up 107 points or more in nine consecutive games. They've given up 115 points or more in three of their last four contests. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -3.5 | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. With Steph Curry going off on Thursday against the Grizzlies and the Suns failing to cover against the Thunder, I like the way this one sets up for Phoenix as these two Western Conference powerhouses do battle for the third time this season. The home team has won and covered the first two matchups (keep in mind, the Suns were without Devin Booker for the rematch in San Francisco). Phoenix enters this game on a serious roll, firing on all cylinders at both ends of the floor. I like the way Monty Williams managed Thursday's game as Devin Booker got truly stretched out for the first time since returning from injury, seeing 35 minutes of action (and pouring in 30 points). DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul played just 30 and 31 minutes, respectively. While most teams have dealth with Covid issues, the Suns have been relatively unscathed (fingers crossed that remains the case for Saturday). Here, we'll note that the Suns are 22-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points. They're also an incredible 16-3 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over that same time frame, as is the case here, outscoring foes by 13.7 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Phoenix at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: There are currently large discrepancies across several books with this total. I would anticipate playing it in the 218-220 range once the numbers settle out. Both of these teams scored exactly 113 points in Thursday's victories. The first two meetings in this series this season totalled just 200 and 214 points. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 when the Suns face Pacific Division opponents this season with those games totalling an average of only 209.8 points. The 'under' is also 35-16 in the Warriors last 51 road games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are rolling along right now but they're also in a stretch that will see them play a ton of basketball between now and January 8th. Here, they'll be playing their third game in five nights with a big game against the Warriors looming on Christmas Day. From there they'll play three more times before the end of the year before four games in the first eight days of January. Workload management becomes a factor and I think this is a contest where they can post a victory without going full throttle for four quarters - one of the few opportunities they may have to do so in the next couple of weeks. Oklahoma City is in a back-to-back spot off a big win over the Nuggets last night. Note that the Thunder have allowed two of their five lowest point totals of the season over their last two games. The 'under' is 9-5 in their 14 road games this season, largely due to their own awful scoring average of 96.9 points per game. Off three consecutive victories I'm just not sure we're going to see a peak offensive performance from the Thunder as they look ahead to the holiday break (their next game comes on Boxing Day). Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-23-21 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 214 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Bucks rout of Houston last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well as they play the second of back-to-backs in Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are missing a number of key contributors - Dallas in particular. However, we're dealing with a considerably lower total than we would normally see in this matchup as a result (that goes without saying, I know). Note that the Bucks have allowed two of their five highest point totals of the season in their last five games alone. They welcomed back Khris Middleton from injury last night and ultimately put up a whopping 126 points. The Mavs have managed to score over 100 points in five straight games despite missing so many pieces. They scored 114 points in a double-digit win over Minnesota two nights ago with a similar lineup to the one we're likely to see on Thursday. Note, however that Dallas has also given up 107, 111 and 102 points over its last three games and doesn't figure to improve on those numbers as it takes a step up in class against the Bucks (Milwaukee has proven it is a top-flight team even without Giannis). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-22-21 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 224 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a flyer on the 'over' in this one even with Christian Wood's status still up in the air due to a nagging knee injury. I believe there's a better chance that he plays than doesn't in this, the first of back-to-back games for the Rockets (I would expect the Rockets to play Wood against an undermanned Bucks team rather than on the second of back-to-backs in Indiana tomorrow). Note that the Rockets have allowed three of their five highest point totals of the season over their last five contests. The good news is, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 103, 116 and 118 points in their last three games. As for the Bucks, they're expected to welcome back Khris Middleton on Wednesday night. You don't get worse offensively by adding a guy like Middleton to the lineup and while the Bucks were awful at that end of the floor last time out (90 points scored against Cleveland) they had put up 114 and 112 points in their previous two games. Note that the Bucks have given up three of their seven highest point totals of the season in their last four games alone. These two teams just met in Houston back on December 10th and combined to score 237 total points. Covid has obviously ravaged the Bucks roster since but I still think we see this one find its way 'over' the total (which has been adjusted downward since that last meeting). Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-21-21 | Suns -7 v. Lakers | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can't help but think this game means very little to the Lakers in the grand scheme of things. They know they can't match up with the Suns right now, not with Anthony Davis among those sidelined and Lebron James less than 100% healthy. The Suns welcomed Devin Booker back on Sunday and he filled the statsheet in only 26 minutes of action. While Booker was sidelined we saw the Suns continue to stack up wins with a number of other players picking up the scoring slack in his absence. I believe Phoenix is better for it. The Suns have been a terrific positive momentum play in recent years, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following consecutive double-digit wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a miserable 20-36 ATS in their last 56 home games and limp into this game off a 1-2 road trip in which the only win came against a Luka-less Mavs squad. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 11 straight meetings in this series. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-20-21 | Spurs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The 'over' has cashed in three straight games involving the Spurs and we were on board for one of those contests on Saturday night in Utah. I look for that trend to reverse on Monday, however, as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a loss in Sacramento on Sunday. The Spurs are still averaging just north of 105 points per game on the road this season. They'll be up against a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after losing consecutive games in Utah and Oklahoma City. The Clips have been a different team at home, however, where they've gone 12-7, allowing just 103.7 points per game with the 'under' cashing at a 10-3-1 clip. Note that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled only 198 points right here in Los Angeles back on November 16th. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 218 | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Portland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Thanks to their last meeting totalling just 216 points in Portland just last week we're dealing with a lower posted total in this quick rematch in Memphis. The last two meetings in this series have now stayed 'under' the total. That's worth noting as we haven't seen three consecutive matchups between these two teams go 'under' since way back in 2015. The Blazers finally snapped their losing streak with a 125-116 win over Charlotte last time out (we won with the 'over' in that game). They've scored at least 103 points in four straight games after being held to 94 points or less in three of their previous four contests. The Grizzlies have now given up 103 points or more in three of their last four games after holding five of their previous six opponents to 95 points or less. They're rolling offensively right now, posting two of their six highest point totals of the season in their last three contests. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | Wizards v. Jazz OVER 223 | 109-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this same matchup last Saturday night in Washington, despite the Wizards contributing just 98 points. Here, I look for even more of a track meet - just as we saw with our 'over' play between the Spurs and Jazz in Utah last night - a game that totalled 254 points. Note that three of the Wizards six highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last four games. As for the Jazz, they've put up 136, 118, 123, 124 and 126 points in their last four games. This has certainly been a high-scoring series, especially in Utah where we've seen point totals of 246, 248 and 252 points in the last three meetings here. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | Rockets v. Pistons | 116-107 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Houston at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. With tipoff quickly approaching I'll keep my analysis for this play short. I understand the apprehension around backing the Pistons here as they haven't won a game since November 17th. Keep in mind, they've only been favored in one game since then. The Rockets had a brief surge but have now gone back in the tank, losers of four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that Houston 123, 113, 126, 124 and 116 points over its last five contests. Detroit, meanwhile, has posted two of its four highest scoring totals of the season over its last four games. Also note that Detroit has taken the last two meetings in this series. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
12-17-21 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 227 | Top | 116-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is the highest total on Friday's NBA board (at the time of writing) and it is that way for a reason in my opinion. The Hornets are getting involved in track meet after track meet right now. Five of their nine highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last seven games. That's come at the expense of their defense, however, as they've also allowed six of their nine highest point totals of the season in their last nine games. Here, they'll be facing a desperate Blazers squad that has lost seven games in a row, despite welcoming Damian Lillard back to the lineup late last week. Since his return, they've scored 111, 107 and 103 points but lost all three games. After shooting a miserable 37.8% from the field in Wednesday's 10-point loss against Memphis, I expect a positive response here. Note that the 'over' is 14-4 the last 18 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 233.0 points. The 'over' is also 20-8 the last 28 times they've sought revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, with that spot producing an average total of 233.8 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-17-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 225.5 | 128-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. This total continues to climb but I'm still not sure it has been set high enough. The Spurs have allowed two of their highest point totals allowed this season in their last three games. They also check in having scored 123, 112, 112 and 115 points over their last four contests. The Jazz, meanwhile, have posted their six highest point totals of the season over their last eight games. With that being said, they've also given up 105, 107, 130 and 103 points in their last four home games - that's despite being favored by 7.5 points or more in all four games. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of six of their last seven games, going 0-6-1 ATS over that stretch. Thursday's date with the Suns, on a back-to-back no less, doesn't figure to be the 'get right' spot they're looking for. Phoenix is still without Devin Booker although his return is getting closer. The Suns keep rolling along regardless, winners of three of their last four games despite missing DeAndre Ayton for part of that stretch as well. Ayton returned on Tuesday and played a big part in a 111-107 overtime win in Portland. I don't expect the Suns to face nearly as much resistance against the Wiz on Thursday. Washington got 29 points from Deni Avdija and Montresz Harrell off the bench and Bradley Beal scored 30 points for the first time in five games (and only the fourth time this season) yet still lost by 14 points in Sacramento last night. Here, we'll note that Washington has allowed a whopping 120.9 points per game the last 51 times it has played consecutive road games, as is the case here as it continues a long six-game trip. The Suns, meanwhile, are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-15-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -9.5 | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are rolling right now, winners of seven straight games. Each of their five highest scoring performances of the season have come over that stretch. They've also held opponents to two of their six lowest point totals of the season over their last two contests. In other words, it's going to take quite a performance to take down Utah right now. I'm not convinced the undermanned Clippers are up for it. Los Angeles checks in 'fat and happy' off four consecutive wins - a streak that started with a double-digit victory in Portland. Still, the Clips are a losing team on the road this season where they average just 104.9 points per game. That's not going to cut it against a Jazz squad that averages over 116 points per contest on its home floor. This is Utah's first shot at Los Angeles after bowing out at the hands of the Clips in the playoffs last June. Expect the Jazz to make a statement. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo among others on Wednesday night. No one is going to feel sorry for the defending champs though. This game opens a six-game in 11-day stretch for Milwaukee. Off a double-digit loss in Boston two nights ago, I look for the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor. The Pacers check in having won three of their last four games. All three of those wins came in the role of favorite. They lost by two points against the Warriors two nights ago so most will expect them to have little trouble taking the undermanned Bucks down to the wire in this one as well. I'm not so sure. Milwaukee has owned the Central Division lately, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 matchups against divisional foes. It has also taken six straight meetings against Indiana, winning all six of those games by at least nine points. Note that the Pacers check in a miserable 3-10 on the road this season. The fact that Giannis will miss this game isn't lost on the oddsmakers. The Bucks are still being favored for a reason in my opinion. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers OVER 219 | 111-107 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We're seeing quite an adjustment to the total in this matchup considering the first two meetings this season saw closing totals of 230 and 225 points and both found their way 'over' with 239 and 228 points scored. That of course has everything to do with the fact that the Suns are missing Devin Booker while the Blazers are without C.J. McCollum. I'm not sure it matters on Tuesday as I anticipate a high-scoring affair. Phoenix is coming off a loss in L.A. against the Clippers last night, scoring just 95 points in the process. We won with the 'under' in that game but I won't hesitate to go the other way here. Note that the Blazers just gave up 116 points against the T'Wolves here at home on Sunday. Five of their nine highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last nine games. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 51-30 with the Blazers seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 232.1 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns 111-105 loss to the Paul George-less Clippers last night. Phoenix has lost only five games all season but two of those have come in its last four games. Going back to the start of 2020, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. Phoenix won here in Portland by a 127-121 score last March but that was on the strength of a lights-out 59% shooting performance. The Suns of course won't have the services of Devin Booker once again for this one. DeAndre Ayton missed last night's game as well and is questionable to return here. Regardless whether he plays, I believe the Suns will be in tough trying to hold down a Blazers team that will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Damian Lillard returned to the lineup on Sunday but it wasn't enough as Portland fell by five points against Minnesota. Lillard posted a 24/11/6 line in 36 minutes on Sunday so he certainly seemed no worse for wear in his first game back. A lot of bettors got behind the Blazers in that contest and certainly came away discouraged. I believe it's the wrong move jumping ship here, however. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
12-13-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Suns have kept rolling without Devin Booker, they've been getting it done a little differently - or perhaps not as their defense has been outstanding going back to last season, it's just that it has sometimes taken a back seat to their terrific offense. Here, we'll note that the Suns have posted two of their five lowest-scoring outputs of the season over their last five games. The 'under' has cashed in five of their last six contests overall. Only once over their last five games have they given up more than 104 points - that coming in a rematch against the Warriors after defeating them three nights earlier. The Clippers have seen the 'under' cash in three of their last four games. Two of their nine lowest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last four contests. With Paul George likely to sit once again due to an elbow injury, I'm not sure they'll be interested in getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with the Suns. These two teams are certainly very familiar with one another, noting that this will be the 10th meeting in the series going back to the start of last season with five of the previous nine staying 'under' the total including three of four matchups here in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Pelicans v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Jazz v. Wizards OVER 218 | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Washington at 7 pm et on Saturday. Keeping in mind the most recent matchup between these two teams last April got well into the 240's and the Jazz are on an incredible scoring tear right now, I believe this total will prove too low on Saturday night in Washington. The Wizards might be catching the Jazz at the right time as Utah is playing its fourth road game in the last seven nights, not to mention being in a three-in-four situation away from home. Washington knows it's going to have to hang a crooked number on the board to prevail in this one as Utah has put up 127, 129, 137, 109, 136 and 118 points over the course of its current six-game winning streak. We won with the 'over' when the Jazz opened their current trip with a 109-108 win in Cleveland last Sunday. We're dealing with a slightly higher posted total this time around, but it won't be high enough. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Pistons v. Pelicans OVER 212.5 | 93-109 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This should be a 'defense-optional' type of affair as the Pistons travel to New Orleans to face the Pelicans on Friday night. New Orleans is coming off back-to-back losses. It's worth noting that the Pelicans enter this contest having scored more than 100 points in six consecutive games. The Pistons have been lit up for 110 points or more in five straight games - all losses. They haven't actually tasted victory since November 17th at home against Indiana. Detroit has managed to score over 100 points in three consecutive games and I like its prospects of eclipsing that number with ease again here, noting that New Orleans sits a woeful 29th in the league in terms of defensive rating. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Nets v. Hawks | 113-105 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Nets opened their current road trip with a three-point win in Dallas on Tuesday before falling to the red hot Rockets by double-digits on Wednesday. I look for them to have a tough time regaining their footing in Atlanta on Friday night. The Hawks have been idle since defeating the T'Wolves 121-110 on Monday. That was their first victory in three games so they'll certainly be eager to build some positive momentum in this spot, noting that they won't play again until they travel to Houston to face the aforementioned Rockets on Monday. This is a revenge spot for Atlanta after it fell by a 117-108 score in Brooklyn back on November 3rd. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets +2 | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Sacramento at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Covid issues have hit the Hornets hard but they've remained competitive, coming off consecutive narrow losses at home against the 76ers by three and four-point margins. Here, I look for them to get back in the win column against the Kings before heading out on a tough six-game road trip. Even without a number of key cogs, it's not as if the Hornets are completely bereft of talent. Two nights ago we saw the trio of Kelly Oubre Jr., Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges pour in 73 points in an overtime loss against Philadelphia. Joel Embiid went off for Philadelphia in that game. It was simply 'one of those nights' and the Hornets weren't able to get the victory. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings are coming off three straight wins but still sit three games under .500 on the season. Travelling across the country on just one day of rest off three consecutive victories is a recipe for disaster in the opener of this three-game trip in my opinion. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Nuggets here after they rallied for an overtime win in New Orleans last night. Note that Denver hasn't posted consecutive wins since posting five straight victories back in early November. The Spurs, meanwhile, saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in Phoenix on Monday before dropping a double-digit decision at home against the Knicks the next night. I look for them to regain their footing here, noting that they've gone 30-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here after they lost by six points in Denver back in October. The Nuggets on the other hand are a woeful 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off a road win. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Blazers v. Warriors -13.5 | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The straight-up winner has now covered the spread in 20 consecutive games involving the Golden State Warriors. That's a trend I see continuing on Wednesday night as the Warriors welcome the reeling Trail Blazers to San Francisco. The Blazers are of course still without Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, among others. Two of Portland's three lowest-scoring efforts of the season have come in its last three contests. As for Golden State, it matched its second-highest scoring production of the season in Monday's 126-95 rout of the Magic. Still, this is a team that has lost two of its last four games so I don't expect it to overlook the undermanned Blazers on Wednesday. Note that the Warriors already defeated a healthier Portland squad by 15 points here back in November. Take Golden State (9*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs enter this game off a third straight relatively low-scoring affair last night as they fell by a 102-99 score at home against Brooklyn. Noting that the 'over' is 74-50 with the Mavs playing on the road off three or more consecutive 'under' results, I'm anticipating a higher-scoring contest that finds its way 'over' the total on Wednesday in Memphis. The Grizzlies have seen the 'under' cash in their last two games. With that being said, two of their own four highest-scoring performances of the season have come in their last five contests. Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Grizzlies in a home favorite role this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.9 points. These two teams just met last week with the Grizzlies winning by a 97-90 score in Dallas. The Grizz didn't have to score a whole lot to secure the win on that night as Dallas was without Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic. Both returned to the lineup last night. The last time these two teams met in Memphis they combined to score a whopping 237 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Nets v. Mavs +2.5 | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavs will be looking to salvage the finale of their three-game homestand on Tuesday after suffering losses at the hands of the Grizzlies and Pelicans. The hope is that they'll have both Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic back for this game but it at the very least looks like Porzingis will be back in the lineup. I like the fact that we're catching points with the Mavs here noting that the Nets have managed to cover the spread just once in their last nine games. This is a big spot for the Mavs as they look to stop the bleeding before heading out on the road for three in a row. While the Nets do check in playing well offensively, it has come at the expense of their defense it seems as they've allowed 104 points or more in seven straight contests. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
12-06-21 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 216 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Nuggets enter this game riding a seven-game 'over' streak and I look for that trend to continue on Monday. Two of Denver's three highest scoring outputs of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 120 points in Miami and 113 in New York. Now it heads to Chicago to face a Bulls squad that has allowed two of its three highest point totals of the season over its last three games. On the flip side of that, two of the Bulls three highest scoring performances of the campaign have also come in their last three games. Note that this will be the second meeting between these two teams this season with the first producing 222 points back on November 19th in Denver. The last time they met here in Chicago they combined to score 230 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Jazz v. Cavs OVER 211 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Cleveland at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. With the Jazz coming off their three highest scoring outputs of the season and Cleveland having posted two of its season-high scoring totals of the season in its last three games, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The 'over' has cashed in seven of Utah's last eight games. While its offense has certainly played a big role in that, it's also worth noting that the Jazz defense has struggled as they've allowed over 100 points in seven of those eight contests. Cleveland, meanwhile, has scored 105 points or more in six straight games. Off four consecutive victories and in search of revenge for a pair of blowout losses again Utah last season, I look for a strong performance from the Cavs here. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 26-13 in the Cavs last 39 home games where the total was set between 210 and 219.5 points, with an average total of 220.0 points scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 217 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. This will mark the first meeting between these two teams this season after all three matchups last season stayed 'under' the total. Keep in mind, the lone matchup last season here in San Francisco totaled 220 points which would be enough to eclipse tonight's total. The Warriors cruised to a blowout win over the Devin Booker-less Suns last night. We won with Golden State in that game. Here, the Warriors host a Spurs squad riding a three-game winning streak and having put up two of its five highest scoring outputs of the season in their last two games. The Spurs know they're not going to win a defensive slugfest here - they need to outgun the Warriors. That's because Golden State averages just shy of 117 points per game at home this season. Since the start of November the Warriors have been extremely consistent in terms of scoring production here at home, posting totals of 114, 126, 120, 127, 123, 119, 119, 116, 118 and 118 points. I don't think the Spurs have the defense to knock them off course here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
11-29-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 119-133 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. With the Hornets coming off an embarrassing loss in Houston two nights ago the majority of bettors will undoubtedly be looking to back the Bulls at home on Monday night. After all, Chicago has taken three straight meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting, however, that the last time the Bulls hosted the Hornets they closed as just 1.5-point favorites. I believe we're getting considerable value with Charlotte here, noting that despite Saturday's upset loss still checks in a solid 7-2-1 ATS over its last 10 games. The Bulls, meanwhile, have dropped the cash in three of their last four contests and have only managed to split their last 14 games from an ATS perspective. It's certainly worth noting that the Hornets are averaging an impressive 114.2 points per game against opponents that allow an average of just 107.0 ppg this season. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired the Bulls aren't particularly imposing from an offensive standpoint, averaging just 106.5 ppg and outscoring the opposition by only 3.3 points on average at the United Center this season. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
11-23-21 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
11-23-21 | Heat v. Pistons OVER 207 | 100-92 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pistons last game against the Lakers on Sunday. I'm not interested in going back to the well with the same play here, in fact, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as Detroit wraps up its homestand against the Heat. Miami checks in off a 103-100 loss in Washington on Saturday. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times the Heat have played on the road off a road loss with that spot producing an average total of 224.7 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 in the Heat's last 12 games as a double-digit favorite (the spread has crept into that range over the course of the morning). That situation has led to an average total of 227.8 points. As for Detroit, it has seen the 'over' go a perfect 9-0 the last nine times it has followed up three or more consecutive home games, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 226.3 points. Finally, we'll note that all three of last year's meetings between these two teams totaled at least 220 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-22-21 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Charlotte and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Monday. When these two teams last squared off in Charlotte last week, the Hornets cruised to a low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) 97-87 victory. Not surprisingly, we're dealing with a lower total this time around, but I'm not sure the move is warranted. Note that the 'over' is 23-12 with the Wizards seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.1 points. Also note that the Wiz average north of 119 points per game when playing at home off an 'under' result over the last two seasons (27-game sample size), as is the case here, leading to an average total of 234.8 points in that spot. The Hornets shot just 42.2% from the field in their last game - a 115-105 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. They're averaging 112.5 points in four previous games following a sub-43% shooting performance this season. The last time we saw these two teams match up in Washington there were 225 total points and we were dealing with a total set in the 230's. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-21-21 | Lakers v. Pistons UNDER 212.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Lost in Lebron James' return to the Lakers lineup is the fact that this team isn't playing a lick of defense right now - at least not on its current road trip. The Lakers gave up a whopping 130 points in Friday's rout at the hands of the Celtics. I see this as the perfect 'get right' spot for the Lakers defense, however, as they continue their trip against the inconsistent Pistons in Detroit. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 21-8 in the Lakers last 29 road games when coming off an ATS loss. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 when they play on the road off an upset loss as a favorite, with that situation totaling an average of just 206.2 points. Detroit checks in with the 'over' having cashed in three of its last four games but the Pistons are anything but reliable offensively, noting that they've scored 102 points or less in seven of their last 10 games. Interestingly, Los Angeles scored just 92 points in its lone trip to Detroit last season in a game that totaled only 199 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | 76ers +6 v. Blazers | 111-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The 76ers finally snapped their five-game losing streak with a blowout win in Denver two nights ago. I look for them to build off that performance here. Keep in mind, it's not as if the Sixers were getting completely outclassed during their slide. Four of their five losses came by single-digit margins while the other was an obvious outlier in Utah - a game in which they allowed the Jazz to shoot 51.7% from the field while knocking down just 36.7% of their own shots. Portland is coming off consecutive wins on its current homestand but not surprisingly both were close, by five-point margins. That's been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia checks in 18-5 ATS when coming off five or six ATS losses in their last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-11 ATS when playing at least a third consecutive home game, outscored by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
11-19-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 209.5 | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We already won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season. With the scene shifting to Brooklyn for the rematch on Friday night, I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play. Unders have dominated the NBA landscape so far this season so it's no surprise that we're dealing with another relatively low total for this one. I believe it will prove too low, noting that the Nets have been trending to the 'over' after reeling off seven straight 'under' results to open the campaign. The 'over' has now cashed in six of the Nets last nine contests. This sets up as a smash spot for the Nets offense, noting that they've scored 122, 129, 113 and 123 points in four meetings in this series going back to the start of last season. The Magic are certainly ripe for a letdown after posting their second victory over the Knicks at MSG this season two nights ago. They held New York under 100 points in that game. Keep in mind, Orlando is by no means an elite defensive team. Quite the opposite in fact. Prior to Wednesday's performance it had allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. On the flip side, the Magic were held to only 90 points in the first matchup between these two teams this season (as I mentioned, that game still went 'over' the total and we're dealing with an even lower total on Friday). Interestingly, the Magic have alternated good and bad offensive efforts against Brooklyn. Since the start of last season Orlando has scored 115, 92, 121 and 90 points in four matchups with the Nets. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-18-21 | Spurs v. Wolves OVER 219 | Top | 90-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Spurs first game of their current three-game road trip this past Sunday against the Lakers and were certainly fortunate to do so, cashing that ticket by a single point. San Antonio followed up that game with another low-scoring result against the Clippers. Now we're seeing the lowest posted total of the trip, despite the fact that I believe this sets up as a the highest-scoring affair. While San Antonio is coming off a poor offensive performance, scoring only 92 points in a blowout loss against the Clippers, I do think it is well-positioned to bounce back here. First of all, it is catching Minnesota in a back-to-back spot off a 107-97 win over Sacramento last night. The T'Wolves could certainly fall victim to being 'fat and happy' in this spot after holding the Suns and T'Wolves to 37.6% and 36.6% shooting to open their current homestand. I don't believe the T'Wolves are nearly as good of a defensive team as they've shown. They've caught some opponents in favorable situations and I think it's been more of the case of those opponents having off shooting nights than anything else. I don't expect the Spurs to suffer from such shooting woes tonight, noting that they shoot just shy of 45% as a team on the road this season and have shot worse than 43% just once in their last eight games and on only two previous occasions this entire season. On the flip side, San Antonio is by no means an elite defensive team. In fact, the Spurs have allowed five opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field this season. While Minnesota scored 'only' 107 points in last night's victory, it did shoot 50% from the field and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance in a game that projects to be played at a quicker pace. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The NBA season got off to a low-scoring start for sure. Both of these teams were a part of that for sure as the Warriors opened with seven of their first eight games going 'under' the total while the Nets started the campaign with seven consecutive 'under' results. Since then, we've seen a different story unfold, however. The 'over' has cashed in three of the Warriors last five games and four of the Nets last five contests, including each of the last three. With that being said, Golden State is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair in Charlotte as it fell by a 106-102 score. That leaves us with a very reasonable total in Tuesday's matchup in Brooklyn, especially when you consider last season's two meetings saw closing totals of 238 and 246 points with both of those games surpassing the total we're working with tonight. I mentioned the Nets roll into this game on a three-game 'over' streak. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 18-8 the last 26 times they've come off two or more straight 'over' results, producing an average total of 236.1 points in that situation. While there are plenty of 'under' trends at play when it comes to the Warriors, the majority of those situations have still produced higher average totals than we're working with on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-15-21 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 212 | Top | 129-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over between Sacramento and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Kings have somewhat surprisingly trended toward the 'under' this season and are coming off another low-scoring result in a narrow two-point loss in Oklahoma City on Friday. Keep in mind, they're just one game removed from a while 136-117 loss in San Antonio. Here, we'll note that Sacramento road games have totaled an average of 220.9 points over the last 2+ seasons. The Kings lone trip to Detroit last season produced 217 points. The Pistons two best offensive showings of the season have come in their last three games as they put up 112 and 127 points in wins over Houston and Toronto, respectively. Note that they've allowed an average of 115.4 points when coming off a victory going back to last season, with those contests producing an average total of 217.7 points. I like the fact that Detroit shook out of its shooting slump by knocking down an incredible 54.4% of its shots against the Raptors on Saturday and now gets to face a Kings squad that has been vulnerable defensively on its current road trip and has also been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 and 95 field goal attempts in its last two contests. I simply feel the erratic nature of the two offenses in the early going this season is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-14-21 | Spurs v. Lakers UNDER 221.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have been involved in consecutive high-scoring 'over' results but both of those games were played at home. San Antonio's six road games this season have averaged just 204.8 total points with the 'under' cashing at a 5-1 clip. With a number of key injuries, the Lakers have been highly-inconsistent offensively of late and are coming off an ugly 107-83 loss to the T'Wolves here at home on Friday. That's the same T'Wolves squad that the Clippers hung 129 points on last night (we won with the 'over' in that game). Note that the 'under' is 28-15 in the Lakers last 43 games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-8 in Los Angeles' last 27 games as a home favorite of six points or less with that situation resulting in an average total of 213.9 points. As for the Spurs, the last 17 times they've played on the road off a loss they've seen an average total of just 216.5 points scored. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
11-13-21 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 220 | 102-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. The T'Wolves are coming off a low-scoring blowout win over the Lakers here at Staples Center last night, ended a brief string of consecutive 'over' results. The Clippers on the other hand have seen their last three games go 'over' the total and I look for that trend to continue here. The Clips are absolutely rolling offensively right now, having scored 120, 117 and 112 points in the first three games of their current homestand. They've had their way with the T'Wolves in recent years, scoring at least 115 points in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series. While Minnesota's offense has come around on its current road trip, it continues to struggle defensively, and should for the foreseeable future. The Wolves caught the Lakers in a very difficult spot last night, undermanned and coming off a tough overtime win over the Heat, and took full advantage. Here, they won't be so fortunate. Note that the T'Wolves have seen an average total of 230.3 points the last 17 times they've come off an outright underdog win. The 'over' is 25-10 with Minnesota on the road coming off five or six losses over its last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers have yet to register a victory on the road this season but they've also faced some pretty tough opposition. This game against Houston marks their best chance at a road win and I expect them to come up big. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are a woeful 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, outscored by 10.7 points on average in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games after scoring 105 points or less in their last contest, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points in that spot. Last time out, the Rockets held the Pistons to 43.3% shooting and turned the ball over only 13 times - well below their season-average of 19 - yet still lost by eight points in a game where they closed as a three-point favorite. I simply feel it will be a case of the Rockets being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they face a Blazers squad that will be looking to take its frustrations out on Friday night. Take Portland (7*). | |||||||
11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way the Clippers are playing right now, finding their way after a tough start to the season. They check into tonight's contest riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 120 and 117 points in the first two games of their current homestand. They're catching the Heat in the right place at the right time tonight as Miami has gotten off to a tough 0-2 start to its current road trip, suffering consecutive emotional losses against the Nuggets and Lakers. I'm not convinced the Heat can simply flip the switch after shooting 39.7% and 41.7% in their last two games and now facing a solid Clippers defense. Note that Miami is a woeful 4-13 ATS when coming off consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 5.2 points in that situation. You would have to go back six meetings in this series all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time Miami managed to post a victory (0-5 SU and ATS last five meetings). Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
11-10-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 222.5 | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles last night. Here, we'll switch gears a little bit and play the first half 'over' only, out of respect for the Suns coaching and their advantage of catching Portland in a back-to-back spot. There's certainly a chance we see Phoenix make the necessary adjustments at halftime and for the Blazers offense to fade in the second half in this spot - at least I believe that's well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Damian Lillard wasn't happy with the officiating in last night's game, or this season in general. He feels he's not getting the calls he should be. I would certainly expect him to come out aggressively against the Suns on Wednesday and I do think he'll get some of those calls he's been pining for. The Suns are of course without DeAndre Ayton but did manage to post a 109-104 victory in Sacramento on Monday. We have seen them consistently get off to slow starts defensively, allowing 59, 61, 58 and 64 points in the first half of their last four contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 38-21 in the first half with the Blazers having won two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 119.2 points. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted a 15-5 o/u mark in the first half going back to last season when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, producing an average total of 115.8 points. Take the first half over (8*). | |||||||
11-10-21 | Nets v. Magic OVER 209.5 | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Ordinarily I might consider this to be a potential flat spot for the Nets as they play in a three-in-four situation on the road against the lowly Magic. However, here Brooklyn checks in off an ugly blowout loss in Chicago - a game in which it scored only 95 points and shot worse than 40% from the field. This looks like an ideal bounce-back spot offensively after the Nets scored 122, 129 and 113 points in three meetings with Orlando last season. The Magic have been marauding as a good defensive team lately, holding five straight opponents to 44.4% shooting or worse, while giving up more than 102 points only once over that stretch. I don't believe that run of success is sustainable, however. Keep in mind, in their first six games this season, the Magic allowed four opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three of those teams to score 120+ points. Orlando's last 46 games as a home underdog have totaled an average of 216.5 total points. The fact that the Magic have seen each of their last four games stay 'under' the total while the Nets have posted a 2-9 o/u mark this season is what is keeping this total in a very reasonable range. Note that last year's three matchups between these teams each saw closing totals of 225.5 points or higher and all three contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 220 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've already seen two matchups between these two teams this season with both of those games staying 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. Keep in mind, in both of those previous meetings the winning team scored more than 110 points. Last season's three meetings totaled 233, 249 and 225 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 19-7 with the Blazers coming off consecutive 'under' results over the last 2+ seasons and here they're coming off four straight 'unders'. That situation has produced an average total of 232.4 points. Better still, the 'over' is 33-17 with Portland playing on the road off a win over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 233.9 points in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've averaged 117.5 points when playing at home with the total set at 220 points or higher over the last 2+ seasons, producing an average total of 225.5 points. Keeping in mind we saw a closing total of 230.5 points the first time these two teams met this season and the fact that we have regression to the mean factors at play when it comes to the Blazers offense and defense (they're coming off their lowest-scoring game of the season) and the Clippers defense (they held struggling Charlotte to 40.6% shooting last time out), I believe Tuesday's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
11-07-21 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Sunday. We missed badly with the 'over' in the Rockets matinee affair against the Nuggets in Denver yesterday as Houston turned in a rare strong defensive showing (or perhaps it was just a sleepy game all around) in a narrow one-point loss. The Rockets are still a bad defensive team as far as I'm concerned and they'll undoubtedly have their hands full against the red hot Warriors on Sunday. Note that on eight occasions where they've been listed as a 12.5-point or higher road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, the Rockets have put up an impressive 118.4 points on average, resulting in an average total of 244.8 points in that situation, as is the case here. The 'over' is 14-4 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, leading to an average total of 233.6 points in that spot. The Warriors have held each of their last three opponents to 92 points or less but I do think some regression is in order here. I do think they'll come out with an attacking mentality given the Rockets are in a second of back-to-back and three-in-four spot here and the pace alone should help the Houston offense contribute enough to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total. Note that Houston did put up 109 points in its lone trip to San Francisco last season with that game totaling 234 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have already suffered a couple of tough losses against division opponents this season, including a five-point loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Saturday night last time out. Philadelphia enters this game off five straight victories, somewhat surprisingly as it continues to play on without some key cogs including Tobias Harris who remains in Covid protocol. Here, we'll note that the 76ers are just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they've come off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. The Bulls meanwhile are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a close loss by six points or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.1 points in that situation. Philadelphia has now taken eight straight meetings in this series but that included matchups against some bad Bulls teams. Look for an improved Chicago team to bounce back and deliver a win and cover here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
11-06-21 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 219 | 94-95 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Denver at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets have now seen the 'under' cash in four straight and seven of their eight games so far this season. I believe Houston is an ideal opponent to break that streak on Saturday afternoon in Denver. Note that the Nuggets absolutely throttled the Rockets defense in three meetings last year, putting up 124, 128 and 129 points. The two games played here in Denver between these two teams totaled 235 and 245 points. The Rockets come into this game having dropped the first three games on their current road trip. Houston isn't going to play much defense but it can score, as evidenced by the fact that it enters this contest having put up 117 and 111 points in its last two games. The Rockets should continue to push the pace here as they try to break out of their slide, keeping in mind they did manage to score 111 and 116 points in two matchups here in Denver last season. The same trend we've supported in the Rockets last two games is in play again here, noting that the 'over' is 14-3 with Houston playing on the road off a road loss over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 236.3 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers OVER 223.5 | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers haven't been involved in as many high-scoring track meets as they were last season, at least early on here in 2021-22. With that being said, I believe the totals have been over-adjusted as a result. With the 'under' having cashed in three of Indiana's last four games, I believe we're being given a very reasonable number to work with here. The Pacers enter this contest on their first two-game winning streak of the season. That's worth noting as the 'over' has gone 12-2 the last 14 times they've come off consecutive victories, resulting in an average total of 241.5 points. As for the Blazers, they're reeling right now off three straight losses. All three of those losses came on the road though. Back at home, I expect them to go back to their sharp-shooting ways. Note that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Blazers have come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 236.0 points in that spot. The last time we saw these two teams match up they combined to score a whopping 245 points last April. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Spurs v. Magic OVER 213 | 102-89 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic are coming off an awful showing against the Celtics two nights ago as they fell by a score of 92-79 in an extremely low-scoring affair. I look for a different story to unfold as they welcome the Spurs to Amway Arena on Friday night. Keep in mind, prior to that poor performance, the Magic had scored 111, 109, 103 and 115 points in their previous four games. The 'over' is still 6-3 in their nine games to date this season. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 24-10 with the Magic revenging a same-season loss against an opponent going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 221.8 points. Better still, the 'over' is 9-1 the last 10 times Orlando has been at home revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent (the Spurs beat the Magic 123-97 in San Antonio on October 20th), producing an average total of 228.5 points in that spot. The Spurs check in having scored 118 and 108 points in their last two games, shooting 52.8% and 48.9% from the field in those two contests. The 'over' is 23-11 in their last 34 games against Eastern Conference foes, with an average total of 227.5 points scored. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Grizzlies v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Memphis is coming off consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' is 4-1 in its last five contests. I look for that trend to reverse on Friday, however, as the Grizzlies head to Washington to face the Wizards. Washington is coming off a relatively low-scoring affair of its own against Toronto two nights ago. Note that prior to that, the Wiz had seen their last three games go 'over' the total with those contests reaching 233, 227 and 229 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 9-0 with the Grizzlies on the road coming off three wins in their last four games going back to last season, good for an average total of 240.7 points. When the Grizz play on the road off consecutive wins, they're on a 13-2 'over' streak, with that situation producing an average total of 238.9 points. As for the Wizards, they've seen an average total of 238.8 points scored the last 24 times they've played at home following an 'under' result. Expect a return to 'normal' for Washington here. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In this battle of two-win teams, I simply feel that the Spurs are the superior team and just as they did in a 26-point rout in San Antonio back on October 20th, I look for them to prove it on the floor on Friday night. Note that the Magic are a pitiful 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 11.9 points in that situation. Worse still, Orlando is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here following that 20+ point loss in San Antonio earlier this season. Oddly enough, the Magic have been outscored by an identical 11.9-point margin on average in that situation. The Spurs are coming of consecutive losses including a narrow one-point setback against the Mavericks last time out. Note that they own a stellar 26-14 ATS mark in their last 40 road games, including a 120-97 victory as a seven-point favorite here in Orlando last April. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Pistons last night as they failed to show up in the second half in an 11-point loss to the 76ers. Call me crazy but the fact that they actually 'only' lost by 11 points despite scoring just 32 second half points was encouraging. Here, I simply feel they're catching way too many points as they host a 'fat and happy' Nets squad coming off three consecutive victories with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Pistons are 16-5 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that spot. While they're just 22-37 ATS the last 59 points they've been revenging a same-season loss against an opponent, that doesn't tell the whole story as they've been outscored by just 6.1 points on average in that situation - obviously a considerably shorter number than the pointspread we're working with here tonight. In two meetings between these two teams in Detroit last season, the Pistons won 122-111 and lost 113-111. Brooklyn has yet to win three straight games ATS this season and I'm willing to bet they fail to accomplish that feat here. Take Detroit (7*). | |||||||
11-04-21 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | 107-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: Downgrading this to a 5* play with the news that Lebron James will be OUT tonight. We won with the 'over' in the Lakers most recent game - a narrow 119-117 victory over the Rockets two nights ago. The fact that the Thunder are coming off a game that totaled only 193 points against the Clippers while the Lakers are just one game removed from a contest that totaled only 180 points is keeping this total lower than it probably should be. I do think this total would make sense if we were talking about last season's Lakers team. The 2021-22 edition is much stronger offensively, however, while still playing an inconsistent brand of defensive basketball. The Thunder are by no means an offensive juggernaut. In fact, they're one of the worst offensive teams in the league by most metrics. With that being said, they did put up 123 points in a win over the Lakers last week and I'm confident we'll see them push the pace again here after being held to 82 and 94 points in consecutive losses to open this three-game road trip. Note that the last time we saw them shoot worse than 40% in consecutive games they bounced back with a 47.6% shooting effort, scoring 103 points against the 76ers. Having scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games and with revenge on their minds given that aforementioned loss against the Thunder, I fully expect to see the Lakers go off offensively in this one. They've put up 128, 119, 114 and 115 points in four meetings with the Thunder going back to last season. I will point out, however, that they've allowed 113.3 points on average when coming off consecutive home wins going back to last season with that spot producing an average total of 224.2 points. This total proves to be too low on Thursday. Take the over (5*). | |||||||
11-04-21 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 218 | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've yet to see scoring really pick up in the NBA this season but I do think it's only a matter of time before we see a shift away from the lower-scoring contests. In this spot, I simply feel the total has been set too low. The Rockets are by no means a quality defensive team. They're going to have their hands full with a surging Suns squad on Thursday night. We have seen Houston stay competitve at times this season thanks to its offense. That could very well be the case again on Thursday. Note that the 'over' is 13-3 the last 16 times the Rockets have played on the road off a road loss, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points. On the flip side, the Suns have seen the 'over' cash at a 23-9 clip the last 32 times they've come off a double-digit win, producing an average total of 227 points in that spot. The 'over' is also a profitable 39-22 after the Suns give up 105 points or less in a game over the last 2+ seasons, good for an average total of 224.4 points in that situation. The last time these two teams met in the desert they combined to put up 246 points last April. We don't need anything close to that level of track meet to cash this ticket. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the 'fat and happy' 76ers as they come off four straight wins, all at home. Philadelphia has had to deal with some key absences lately with Tobias Harris missing time due to Covid protocols and Joel Embiid dealing with a nagging knee injury. Of course, there's no guarantee Embiid plays tonight in a back-to-back spot but we'll make this play on the assumption he is able to go. The Pistons have lost back-to-back games in blowout fashion. Those came in tough spots at Brooklyn and at home against the Bucks. Here, they're home and waiting for the Sixers, noting the last time these two teams squared off at Little Caesar's Arena last January it was no contest as Detroit rolled to a 119-104 victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Here, we're getting an even more favorable number. Look for the Pistons to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 209 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Off yet another relatively low-scoring game last night the 76ers have now seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for that streak to come to an end in Motown on Thursday. Despite that 'under' streak, the 76ers offense has performed well, scoring at least 109 points in six of eight games to date this season. Tonight's opponent, Detroit, is certainly not defensive powerhouse, having allowed four of its last five opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. In fact, over their last two games, the Pistons have allowed the Nets and Bucks to shoot a blazing 89-for-156 (57.1%). Given their defense looks broken, the Pistons will need to step up offensively in order to stay competitive in this one and I'm confident they can do just that, noting that arguably a weaker offensive squad managed to put up 110 and 119 points in two home meetings with the 76ers last season. Having shot worse than 41% from the field in six of seven games so far this season, it's only a matter of time before some more of Detroit's shots start falling. The Pistons might be catching the 76ers in the right place at the right time as Philadelphia is 'fat and happy' off four straight victories, all coming at home, and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to shoot 46.3% or better from the field. Keep an eye on the status of Joel Embiid for the Sixers as he's been known to rest on the back half of back-to-backs, allowing recovery time for an ailing knee. If he doesn't go that should only serve to give us an even better number to work with. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
11-03-21 | Blazers -157 v. Cavs | 104-107 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland moneyline over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. There's a chance the Cavaliers might actually be good this season. Since starting the campaign 0-2 they've won four of their last six games SU and five of those ATS. Here, they're back home 'fat and happy' off a 3-2 road trip that took them to a lot of tough venues. I don't like the setup for Cleveland in this spot, however, as it hosts a Blazers team that will be looking to salvage a win on their own three-game road trip. Portland clearly got caught overlooking an Embiid and Harris-less 76ers squad on Monday, its second straight outright loss as a favorite to open the trip. A win here still gets the Blazers back to the .500 mark before returning home for a quick two-game set against the Pacers and Lakers. Here, we'll note that the Blazers have proven to be a solid bounce-back team off a bad loss, going 16-7 SU the last 23 times they have played on the road off a double-digit loss as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a tired team playing on just one day of rest off a five-game road trip and have gone a miserable 7-32 SU the last 39 times they've played their sixth (or more) game in the last 10 days, as is the case here. We certainly saw signs of a tired team in Monday's game in Charlotte as the Cavs put up 40 points in the first quarter but then failed to top 25 points in any of the final three quarters. Having shot 43.3% or worse from the field in five of their last six games and not exactly known as an elite defensive team, even though the Cavs have enjoyed plenty of success lately they have a pretty thin margin for error in my opinion. They caught the Hornets in a favorable spot on Monday and Charlotte shot 41.2% from the field but still managed to take Cleveland right down to the wire in an eventual 113-110 Cavs victory. The Blazers on the other hand aren't shooting all that poorly (44.3% and 47.6% in their last two games) but there's a lot of room for improvement defensively after allowing the Hornets and 76ers to both shoot better than 51% from the field to open this trip. This is a fine 'get right' spot for Portland given that it disposed of Cleveland by 19 and 36 points in last year's two meetings. The Cavs are certainly a better team this season but I'm not sure their recent success is sustainable. Rather than lay the points with the Blazers here, we'll back them on the moneyline as the reasonable price warrants such a play. Take Portland moneyline (6*). | |||||||
11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
11-02-21 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 217 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after these two teams were involved in exactly the opposite type of contest two nights ago (the Lakers won that game 95-85). Credit the Lakers for stepping up defensively after a rough stretch earlier in the season. We used their early high-scoring results to our advantage last Friday night as we cashed the 'under' in their victory over the Cavaliers. I'm still not sold on the Lakers being an elite defensive team, however, while on the flip side we know they have the offensive talent to go off on any given night and this is certainly a favorable matchup against the Rockets. Speaking of elite defensive teams, Houston won't be mistaken for one any time soon. They know they're going to need to score a lot more than they did on Sunday in order to take something away from this two-game set in Los Angeles. That's because they're certainly not likely to hold the Lakers to sub-41% shooting again on Tuesday. Keep in mind, just two games back Houston allowed 122 points on better than 48% shooting against the Jazz, at home no less. Here, we find the 'over' having gone 12-3 with the Rockets playing on the road off a road loss going back to last season, resulting in an average total of 236.5 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers have seen an average total of 223 points after consecutive home wins going back to last season (10-game sample size). Finally, I'll note that while Sunday's matchup was a bit of a slog, three meetings between these two teams last season totaled 222, 217 and 246 points (that was the lone matchup here in Los Angeles). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics OVER 216.5 | 128-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Chicago and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's early in the season but this is a key Atlantic Division showdown between the Bulls and Celtics. I believe the first half total will prove too low as both teams look to get off to quick starts on Monday night. Note that the Bulls have got off to plenty of fast starts offensively this season, scoring 65, 54, 61, 51 and 54 points in the first half over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Celtics had put up 53, 68 and 52 points in the first half in their last three contests before being held to only 47 points in the back half of a home-and-home set with the Wizards on Saturday. Poor starts defensively have been problematic for the C's this season as they check in giving up 56.2 points on average in the first half through their first six games. I think both teams will come into this game knowing they're going to need to put up a lot of points to secure a win. I do respect both head coaches and feel that the necessary defensive adjustments could be made at halftime, however, so we'll play the first half 'over' the total only in this one. Take the first half over (8*). | |||||||
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta moneyline over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the Wizards are off to a blazing 5-1 start to the season I look for them to get tripped up by the Hawks on Monday night. Atlanta is coming off consecutive losses but both of those were on the road, including a 122-111 setback against the same Wizards it will face on Monday. Here we'll note that favorites priced between -165 and -500 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that are coming off a 20-point loss suffered on the road, as is the case with the Hawks, have gone 26-1 SU over the last five seasons. Atlanta was never really competitive in Saturday's blowout loss in Philadelphia, perhaps the product of playing a third road game in four nights at this early stage of the season when conditioning, or lack thereof, can be an issue. This is one of those difficult one-game trips for the Wizards before they return home to play their next three games. Off a double-overtime win over the Celtics on Saturday this is a classic letdown spot. Atlanta has won four straight home meetings with Washington. To find the last Wizards victory here in Atlanta you would have to go back to December of 2018. Take Atlanta moneyline (6*). | |||||||
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
10-31-21 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 214 | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. The Nets have seen all six of their games stay 'under' the total this season but I look for that trend to reverse on Sunday. Detroit is coming off three consecutive games scoring over 100 points despite shooting 44% or worse in all three contests. The Nets got into a bit of a slog against the struggling Pacers last time out but I believe the Pistons will be more easily baited into a high-scoring affair here. Like Detroit, Brooklyn hasn't been shooting particularly well but this looks like a fine spot to improve on their shooting percentage and pad their offensive starts noting that the Pistons have allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, allowing 122, 110 and 103 points in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone 29-15 with the Nets coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 231 points. Also note that two of three meetings between these two teams last season reached at least 224 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 216.5 | 94-122 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. We've seen this total drop, likely due in part to the questionable tag on Joel Embiid as he deals with a nagging knee injury. Regardless whether the 76ers big man plays or not, I like this one to go 'over' the total. Note that the Hawks will be playing their third road game in the last five nights. The 'over' has cashed at a 13-2 clip in that same situation over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 231.9 points scored. The 76ers are coming off a low-scoring win over the Pistons. They didn't play at a fast pace in that game but probably knew they didn't have to against a subpar Detroit offense. Here, I think we'll see the Sixers make a more concerted effort to get up and down the floor and keep pace as the Hawks are fully capable of going off offensively. Note that the 76ers have averaged 114.8 points when coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 220.1 points (45-game sample size). The last four meetings between these two teams did stay 'under' the total but that was during their seven-game playoff series last June. Two of the first three contests in that series had gone 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-29-21 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 220 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Lakers are coming off three straight exceptionally high-scoring games but I like the 'catalyst for change' angle here as they return home to host the upstart Cavs on Friday night. Cleveland has reeled off three straight wins including two in a row to open its current road trip and it has done it by playing tough defense and controlling the tempo on offense. Only four teams have had fewer possessions per game than the Cavs this season. The formula has been working so I don't see them changing anything on Friday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-3 with the Cavs coming off a game where both teams scored 105 points or less over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 201.0 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in with the 'under' having gone 15-2 the last 17 times they've come off a stretch that saw them lose four of their last five games ATS, as is the case here, good for an average total of just 206.4 points. They're still dealing with a number of key injuries and regardless who suits up on Friday night, I expect them to make an effort to step up their game defensively after that second half collapse in Oklahoma City two nights ago. The last time these two teams met the Lakers cruised to a 100-86 win here in Los Angeles last March with that game staying 'under' the total by 20 points. Look for this total to prove too high as well. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
10-29-21 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 220 | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I really do feel this game has 'track meet potential' even though it isn't being priced as such. That's due in large part to the fact that the 'under' has gone a perfect 3-0 in each of these teams last three games. I expect that trend to reverse on Friday, however. Credit the Kings for scoring more than 100 points in all four games this season as they've faced an absolutely brutal schedule, going up against Portland, Utah, Golden State and Phoenix. They haven't shot the ball particularly well but that's been a product of the level of opposition they've faced more than anything else. Here, they catch a Pelicans defense that is in line for some considerable defensive regression after holding three straight opponents to 41.7% or worse shooting. New Orleans has gotten off to an uneven start offensively but the signs of a breakout are there. Last time out against Atlanta the Pelicans scored 33 points in the first quarter, building a 14-point lead, but then got complacent and ultimately faded in the second half in a 102-99 loss (we did win with the Pelicans plus the points in that one but missed with the 'over'). Here, they face a Kings squad that has allowed at least 107 points in all four games this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 with the Pelicans having lost two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 230.5 points. All three of last year's meetings between these two teams were high-scoring, totaling 251, 227 and 227 points. Of course, the Pelicans don't have the services of Zion Williamson right now, but they're no slouches offensively with the additions of Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte' Graham. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
10-28-21 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 220.5 | 122-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We won by the narrowest of margins with the 'over' in the Rockets last game as they fell by a 116-106 score in Dallas (some likely 'pushed' as the total ended up closing at 222). That one was set up well for a high-scoring result but a low-scoring fourth quarter ended up keeping the final score in a reasonable range, which has allowed us to step in and play the 'over' again on Thursday at an even more favorable number as the Rockets return home to host the Jazz. Houston isn't going to win many defensive slugfests this season. This young Houston squad is going to have to come up with something special offensively in order to outgun a superior Jazz squad on Thursday. While the Rockets have benefited from facing some teams that have yet to get rolling this season in the Thunder, Celtics and Mavs (they were rolled by the T'Wolves who have admittedly been playing well in their other contest), here they'll run into a Utah team that is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, putting up 122 points on just shy of 52% shooting against Denver two nights ago (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Jazz had little trouble running it up against the Rockets last season, scoring 114, 112 and 124 points in three meetings. The Rockets on the other hand were held under 100 points in two of those three matchups. I believe they're a better team this year, however. They've knocked down better than 47% of their field goal attempts in two previous home games this season and I think catching the Jazz 'fat and happy' off three consecutive lopsided wins to open the campaign is a good thing. Note that Utah did allow Denver to shoot 50.6% from the field on Tuesday. The 'over' is 32-17 with the Jazz coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.6 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets check in averaging 109.9 points when playing at home off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 226.9 points in that spot. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers stunned the Nuggets in Denver on Monday, notching their second straight win to even their record at 2-2 on the season. That's actually a better record than that of the Clippers, who check into this one sitting at 1-2. Los Angeles is, however, coming off its first victory and it was an impressive one as it rolled to a 30-point rout of the Blazers on Monday. I like the Clips to keep the good vibes going for at least one more game on Wednesday. The Cavs are off to a fine start but they're still playing with a very slim margin for error as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, in their first two games this season - both losses - they shot better than 50% from the field, yet still fell by double-digit margins. In their last two contests they benefited from off shooting nights from their opponents with the Hawks and Nuggets knocking down just 38.4% and 40.7% of their shots, respectively. The Clippers dropped their first two games but both of those were tough, on the road against Golden State and at home against Memphis. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by just two and six points. Note that the Cavs are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Pacific Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 18.6 points in those contests. Despite Monday's victory, they're still just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog, outscored by 10.8 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Clips have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 14.7 points in their last eight home games against Central Division opponents. They won by 17 points as nine-point favorites the last time they faced the Cavs right here in L.A. last February. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 218.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed by a bucket with the 'over' in the Pacers most recent game - a double-digit home loss to the Bucks on Monday. A 41-point fourth quarter cost us in that one as the Pacers couldn't get anything going in their attempt to rally late. The 'under' has now cashed in Indiana's last two games, but I don't think that's a sustainable trend. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Pacers, and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Pacers have come off an 'under' result, leading to an average total of 233.1 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 17-6 with Indiana coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 237.6 points. The Raptors might be in for a long season and certainly aren't going to set the league on fire with their offense, but I do think they'll be taking a step down in class against a Pacers team that doesn't play hard-nosed defense, certainly after going up against a strong defensive team like the Bulls last time out. Note that Indiana gave up 123 and 135 points in its two previous road games against Charlotte and Washington this season. The Raptors did manage to score 108 points on better than 48% shooting in a relatively slow-paced game against the Bulls last time out. Here, we can expect them to be baited into an up-tempo affair against a Pacers squad that has hoisted up 90+ field goal attempts in all four games. Finally, I'll note that the last time these two teams met last May we saw 238 points scored. The Raptors aren't the same team now but we're also dealing with a considerably lower total. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
10-26-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Most are down on the Nuggets after their embarrassing home loss against the Cavaliers last night. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Denver offense here, however, noting that the 'over' is 11-2 the last 13 times the Nuggets have come off a home loss, averaging 119.2 points on average in that spot with an average total of 227.1 points scored. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 49-33 o/u record when coming off an ATS win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points scored. Better still, the 'over' is 31-17 the last 48 times the Jazz have come off consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 227.5 points. This total has moved too low due to early season results. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-26-21 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 220.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have posted nothing but 'under' results through three and two games respectively this season but we do have a 'catalyst for change' at work here as the Mavs play their first home game of the season. Dallas is in one of our favorite 'over'-friendly situations here, noting that the 'over' has gone 54-36 with the Mavs coming off a win over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 227.2 points scored. Better still, the 'over' checks in 29-15 with the Mavs coming off a game in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, producing a total of 229.2 points on average. As for the Rockets, they were stymied by a desperate Celtics squad (that checked in 0-2 on the season) last time out, held to 97 points in a 10-point loss (we won with Boston in that game). Here, I expect them to fare better offensively, noting that the Mavs have allowed 115 points on average when returning home off a road win over the last 2+ seasons. After shooting a miserable 33.3% and 41.8% in their first two games, look for the Mavs to 'get right' offensively in this one while the Rockets go along for the ride in what will be a higher-scoring game than most are expecting. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers OVER 229 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We've seen this total drop since opening and I believe it's a knee-jerk reaction after the Pacers were involved in a low-scoring 102-91 victory over the Heat on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana's first two games this season totaled 245 and 269 points. In three meetings between the Bucks and Pacers last season we saw 240, 253 and 275 total points. When playing a Bucks 'over', we generally like to do so when they're coming off a win, noting that situation has produced a 37-23 o/u record going back to last season, good for an average total of 234.4 points scored. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 19-8 with the Pacers coming off an 'under' result going back to last season, producing an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. Better still, the 'over' has gone 26-11 with the Pacers playing consecutive home games, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 235.8 points. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start and coming off an ugly 115-83 home loss against the Raptors on Friday night. Meanwhile the Rockets have split their first two games and are fresh off a 124-91 home win over the Thunder on Friday. Here, we find the Celtics in a situation that has gone 36-13 ATS over the last five seasons, as they come off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent that's coming off a home win in which it scored 110+ points. Teams in that situation have outscored opponents by 13.1 points on average over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 22-10 ATS after dropping two or more straight games ATS over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that spot. Last year, the Celtics were favored by 11 points in their lone stop in Houston and won by 27. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
10-22-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this spot sets up as a relatively low-scoring game between the Spurs and Nuggets on Friday night. San Antonio exploded for 123 points in its season-opener but that was at home against the lowly Magic - likely to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league. San Antonio should find the going much tougher as it hits the road to face the Nuggets on Friday. Denver manhandled the defending Western Conference champion Suns in Phoenix two nights ago, cruising to a 110-98 win. Both the Spurs and Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field in their respective openers but repeating that performance will be tough two nights later. Lost in those impressive offensive performances was the fact that both teams played solid defense, holding the opposition to 40.7% and 41.4% shooting, respectively. The Spurs fall into one of my preferred 'under' systems that has cashed at a 25-6 clip over the last five seasons with just shy of 70% of those wins coming by seven points or more. That system involves playing the 'under' in a game where a losing team from the previous season comes off a home win in which it scored 110+ points, as is the case with San Antonio here. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $966 |
Ray Monohan | $762 |
Joey Tron | $604 |
Big Al McMordie | $501 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Jesse Schule | $471 |
Ricky Tran | $360 |
Matt Fargo | $338 |
Tom Macrina | $260 |
Jimmy Boyd | $88 |