Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-21-17 | Drake +18.5 v. Illinois State | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Drake. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Drake is 6-2 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less, while Illinois State is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home fav of 15.5 to 18 points and just 1-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less. The bottom line: Looks like a prime letdown spot for the high-powered Redbirds. While we’re not going to go out on a limb and predict an outright upset, we’re definitely expecting the above trends to continue and for the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a very generous spread afforded to them in this one. Play on DRAKE. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-19-17 | Gonzaga v. Santa Clara +14 | Top | 88-57 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Santa Clara. REASONING: Gonzaga is the No. 4 ranked team in the nation at 17-0. It’s also covered the spread in ten straight. We think the Bulldogs come in a tiny bit complacent here finally in facing the lowly Santa Clara Broncos and while we won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, we do definitely think that the home side can keep it closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Gonzaga most recently hammered St. Mary’s 79-56 last weekend, while Santa Clara enters off a 75-61 road win over Pepperdine. Not surprisingly, this one is a revenge scenario for Santa Clara, which dropped both games to Gonzaga last year. We won’t try to convince you that Gonzaga is an overrated team which has seen a lot of bounces go its way this season, or that Santa Clara is actually a lot better than what its record would indicate, as that’s not the case. The Bulldogs are a great team and the Broncos are not. This pick sets up great for Santa Clara situationally though. Also note that Gonzaga is in fact just just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, while the Broncos are 4-2 ATS this season against teams with winning records and 3-1 ATS against good offensive clubs which average 77-plus points per contest. Play on SANTA CLARA. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-19-17 | Portland +9 v. San Francisco | Top | 50-75 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Portland. REASONING: Desperation breeds motivation. The Pilots enter having lost three straight and will be eager to return to the winners circle. The Dons come in off a win over Pacific last Saturday, a victory which halted a four-game slide. The Pilots look to get back on track here after falling 74-33 to Saint Mary’s and 79-78 to Loyola Marymount. Keep your eyes on Portland’s talented backcourt feating Alec Wintering and Jazz Johnson. Wintering is the third-leading scorer in the WCC with 20.1 PPG, while Johson is tied for fifth with 17.3. That ranks the duo as the country’s fifth-highest scoring backcourt. We’re not reading too much into the Dons win over the struggling Tigers. San Fran came into that one struggling itself with four straight losses. Also note that San Francisco has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors, going just 1-3 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less and just 3-4 ATS in front of the home town crowd, while Portland has excelled by going 3-2 ATS in conference games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road. We think Wintering and Johnson keep their team competitive tonight. Grab the points, play on PORTLAND. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-18-17 | TCU v. Texas Tech -4 | Top | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Texas Tech. REASONING: TCU appears primed for a letdown here in our opinion after back-to-back victories, most recently an 84-77 win over Iowa State. Vladimir Brodziansky had 25 points in the victory. He leads the team with an average of 12.6 PPG. So far the Horned Frogs average 77.5 PPG. Texas Tech has split its last six games, most recently coming off an 84-75 loss to Oklahoma. Keenan Evans had 16 points in the setback and leads the teams with an average of 14 PPG. Note that Texas Tech averages 78 points on the ninth-best field goal percentage in the country at 50.3 percent. Also note that TCU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after scoring 80 points or more, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and 4-2 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. TT is actually undefeated at home and we don’t think that will change tonight. We’re banking on the hungrier home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on TEXAS TECH. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-17-17 | Kentucky -13 v. Mississippi State | 88-81 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Kentucky. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Kentucky is 10-6 ATS when playing the role of favorite this year and 7-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: We simply have a hard time seeing Mississippi State matching pace down the stretch. Play on KENTUCKY. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-16-17 | Cleveland State +14.5 v. Oakland | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ATS HURRICANE on Cleveland State. REASONING: The Golden Grizzlies are 4-1 in league action, while the Vikings are just 1-5 in conference play. Both teams enter off a loss. Cleveland State fell 78-67 to Valparaiso on Saturday. The Vikings so far average just 66.4 PPG. Oakland on the other hand averages 79 PPG. The Grizzlies look poised for a letdown here after one of their only losses of the season, this time 93-88 to Detroit on Friday. Note that Cleveland State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, while Oakland is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a conference rival. Play on CLEVELAND STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-14-17 | St. Mary's +7.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 56-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-SIDE on Saint Mary’s. REASONING: St. Mary’s is ranked No. 21, while Gonzaga checks in at No. 5 in the nation. The Gaels come in having won nine straight, most recently hammering Portland 74-33 on the road. The Bulldogs are 16-0 after beating Loyola Marymount 93-55 at home on Thursday. Whenever these teams get together, it’s a battle. Note that Saint Mary’s took both regular season contests last year, but Gonzaga would pull off the 85-75 victory in the WCC Tournament. These teams are very similar, in that they both primarily get the job done with suffocating defensive play. Note that St. Mary’s allows just 56.6 PPG, while Gonzaga allows 64.4. Note though that St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 10-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following a straight-up victory over more than 20 points, while Gonzaga is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home fav of 6.5 to nine points. Also note that the road team is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series. St. Mary’s has the personnel to hang with Gonzaga and while we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on the ST. MARY’S. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-13-17 | Toledo v. Central Michigan +1 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on Central Michigan. REASONING: The Rockets enter off a deflating 90-74 loss at WMU, while the Chippewas enter off an 89-85 home loss to Akron. Toledo is 2-1 in conference action, while the Chippewas are 0-3. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting the home side to risk life and limb tonight as it desperately tries to avoid the 0-4 conference record. Momentum is a difficult thing to gain and once lost, it’s even harder to get back. After winning five straight, we think the Toledo has a letdown here after its first conference loss. In the loss to the Broncos the Rockets would allow them to shoot 70 percent overall, including 70 percent from range. Toledo averages 82.3 PPG, which puts it in the Top 50 in the country, but it’s defense is horrible, allowing 77.8 PPG, ranked 294th. CMU averages 88.6 PG and allows 81.7. These are two evenly matched teams, ones which push the pace from start to finish and rarely put much effort on the defensive end. Note though that Toledo is just 2-3 ATS on the road this year and 0-3 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Central Michigan is 2-1 ATS at home this season and 4-2 ATS in its last six against good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. We’re banking on the desperate home side to do just enough to secure the victory today, play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-12-17 | Notre Dame v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | Top | 67-62 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Miami Florida. REASONING: Notre Dame enters off a 75-70 home win over Clemson, while Miami comes in off a lacklustre 70-55 setback to Syracuse. The Hurricanes have to be liking their chances for a bounce back today though, as last year would see them taking both meetings with the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame averages 82.3 PPG, while conceding just 66.7. Miami-Florida averages 73.6 PPG, while allowing just 59.7. Note that Notre Dame is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against a team with a winning home record, while Miami-Florida is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a home fav of three points or less or pick. The Hurricanes are holding the opposition to under 30 percent shooting from beyond the arc, which we think spells trouble for the Irish today. MIAMI FLORIDA’s defense proves to be just too much, lay the short points. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-12-17 | Drexel +11.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Drexel. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Drexel is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games and 5-3 ATS in its last eight when playing with five or six days rest, while Northeastern is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a home fav of 9.5 to 12 points. The bottom line: The Dragons are the “hungrier” team and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one being a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on DREXEL. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-12-17 | Ohio State +11 v. Wisconsin | Top | 66-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Ohio State. REASONGING: Wisconsin is coming off its first conference loss after a lacklustre 66-55 defeat at Purdue on Saturday. Ohio State though is much more desperate as it comes in having lost three straight, most recently a 78-68 setback to Minnesota on the road on Sunday. Note that the Buckeyes play with revenge here after falling to the Badgers 79-68 in their only meeting last year. OSU comes in averaging 74.2 PPG, while allowing just 65.6. The Badgers average 76 PPG and allow 59.8. Note though that Ohio State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 off a loss against a conference rival and 2-0 ATS after three or more consecutive losses, while Wisconsin is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival. While we’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, all signs point to this one being a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on OHIO STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-11-17 | NC State -6 v. Boston College | 66-74 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on North Carolina State. REASONING: NC State will be looking to break an 0-3 road slide today and take out its frustrations on the lowly Eagles after getting crushed 107-56 by North Carolina on Sunday. Guard Dennis Smith Jr. averages 19.1 points, 6.4 assists and 2.2 steals per game. So far the Wolf Pack average 82.7 PPG and concede 76. BC comes in off an 11 point loss to Duke, led by Jerome Robinson with 21 points. So far the Eagles average 74.6 PPG and allow 74 per. Note that NC State is already 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year and 2-0 ATS after allowing 80 points or more, while BC is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring 80 points or more. We think NC State is the deeper and more motivated side today. Lay the points, play on the WOLF PACK. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-10-17 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC SIDE OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech. REASONING: The Hokies beat Duke at home by 13 to close the 2016 calendar year, but have started 2017 with back-to-back losses, most recently to NC State by 26 and to FSU by 15 on the road on Saturday. VT will be desperate to return to form here, sitting at just 1-2 in the ACC thus far. Conversely, the Orange look poised for a letdown after beating Pittsburgh 77-66 on Saturday to push their conference record to 2-1. Note that the Hokies also play with revenge today after falling to Syracuse 68-60 in OT last season. Syracuse has been all over the map as far as its game to game consistency has been concerend, it opened 2017 with a loss to lowly Boston College on the road, but bounced back with a 70-55 win over Miami Florida on January 4th. The Orange average 76.6 PPG and allow 65.8. Virginia Tech though averages 83.3 points, while allowing 72.1. We think the Hokies high-powered offense will prove to be just too much for the Orange to contend with today. And note that Syracuse is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a straight-up victory, while VT is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 following an ATS loss. VIRGINIA TECH’s desperation proves to the be the difference, lay the short points. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-09-17 | Troy State v. Georgia State -5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUN-BELT CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Troy is just 11-19 ATS in its last 20 after a loss against a conference rival and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Georgia State is already 2-0 ATS this year after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The bottom line: The Panthers have not just lost three straight ATS, they’ve also dropped three straight SU. Combined with the 54-53 loss to Troy last year, all signs point to a big bounce back tonight. Play on GEORGIA STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-08-17 | UCF v. Connecticut -1 | Top | 49-64 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Connecticut. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that UCF is just 3-4 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less and only 1-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less, while UConn is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season against good defensive teams which allow less than 64 points per game. The bottom line: It’s desperate times for the Huskies, who have lost four straight and five of their last six. Conversely, the Knights look poised for a letdown after five straight victories in our opinion. Play on CONNECTICUT. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-07-17 | Missouri +14 v. Georgia | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Missouri. REASONING: Missouri is the only team in the conference with an overall losing record, most recently coming off an 88-77 loss to LSU in Columbia. It was a frustrating setback for the desperate Tigers, who actually had a 40-35 halftime lead. Jordan Barnett was a bright spot with 18 points. Georgia is 9-5, but comes in off a 67-61 loss to South Carolina on Wednesday and we think it will get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. Yante Maten was a standout in the setback with 18 points. Note that Missouri is 3-1 ATS in its last four after giving up 85 points or more, while Georgia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after scoring 68 points or less. This is a revenge game as well, as the Bulldogs would take both contests last year. While we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one being more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on MISSOURI. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-05-17 | Pacific +2 v. San Diego | Top | 56-53 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Pacific. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends: As note that Pacific 9-6 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 80 points or more and 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games played in the month of January, while San Diego is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 in January and only 2-3 ATS in its last five after playing three consecutive road games. The bottom line: The Toreros return home to a “trap” game. Grab the points, play on PACIFIC. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-04-17 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 65-93 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Rutgers. REASONING: Rutgers is clearly the hungrier team today. After going 11-2 in non-conference action, the Scarlet Knights have dropped back-to-back conference games, most recently a 60-47 setback to Penn State. Rutgers has won just three conference games over its first two seasons in the Big Ten, and neither came on the road. We’re not suggesting to play this one on the money-line, we simply feel that MSU will got caught “looking past” the lowly Scarlet Knights today to their road contest at PSU this weekend. Note that Rutgers is seventh nationally in rebounds per game (43.27). MSU has looked better of late, it comes in having won three straight, but there’s no question that it’s struggled with consistency this year. The home loss to Northeastern was particularly poor. This is also a transition game for the Spartans offense, which welcomes back Miles Bridges. He’s been out for seven games with an ankle injury, but was averaging 16.6 points and 8.8 boards. Coach Tom Izzo has already said that he needs to give Bridges time to get back into “game shape.” Note that Rutgers is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 12.5 to 15 points range, while Michigan State is just 1-3 ATS this year as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. We’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up to this desperate visiting side. Play on RUTGERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-03-17 | Texas A&M +14.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 58-100 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC SIDE OF THE MONTH on Texas A&M. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense: This is a revenge game for the Aggies after they fell to the Wildcats in the SEC Championship Game last March. Also note that Texas A&M is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Kentucky is 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival. The bottom line: The Aggies had won five straight before getting derailed by Tennessee in their conference opener. We think the visitors are the hungrier side and while we’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, we are definitely loving all of these points. Play on TEXAS A&M. AAA Sports | |||||||
01-02-17 | Troy State v. South Alabama -1.5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on South Alabama. REASONING: This is South Alabama’s Sun Belt Conference opener and we think it makes the most of familiar surroundings: “I think it certainly helps when you're playing your in-state rival to start conference play," USA head coach Matthew Graves said. "The added bonus to it all is that you're starting a new season. I think that's the biggest incentive in my opinion. Everybody is 0-0 and we'll lay it all out on the line Monday. From a defensive standpoint, we've identified that that's where our bread is buttered. We really need to be a defensive-focused group. We've had some extremely good moments defensively and we need to continue to improve in some areas, especially rebounding. Offensively, we've got to step up and make some shots. We're taking care of the ball better and we're taking better shots, we just have to relax and make a few open shots." The Jaguars most recently fell to Ole Miss on December 22nd, Nick Stover led the way with 17 points three 3-pointers. Troy is averaging 80.9 PPG, Jordon Varnado led the way in a victory over Chicago State last time out with a 21-point, eight rebound performance. The Trojans have won five of their last seven, but we think the team is ripe for a letdown here. Note that Troy is 0-2 ATS in its last two when playing with seven or more days rest and just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog of three points or less, while South Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home fav of six points or less and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 80 points or more. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-31-16 | Wyoming v. UNLV +1 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on UNLV. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primiarly on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Wyoming is just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 off a win against a conference rival, while UNLV is 8-2 ATS at home this season and 13-8 ATS in its last 21 against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. The bottom line: We think surging Wyoming finally has a letdown here and the underacheiving Runnin Rebels find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on UNLV. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-30-16 | Baylor v. Oklahoma +3.5 | Top | 76-50 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Oklahoma. REASONING: The 12-0 Baylor Bears are poised for a bit of a letdown here in our opinion as we expect the 6-5 Oklahoma Sooners to give them everything they can handle. Baylor comes in off an 89-63 win over Texas Southern, while Oklahoma enters off a tough 74-70 loss to Auburn. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Sooners have to be loving their chances today, as they’d go on to take both meetings last year. Baylor is scoring an average of 79.6 PPG, which is ranked 70th overall, while allowing just 58.7. Oklahoma averages 80.1 PPG, while allowing 73. Clearly the Bears have the better defense, but the Sooners are the more motivated side here and have the advantage of playing at home. Note that Baylor is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 80 points or more, while Oklahoma is 4-2 ATS in its last six against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. We think the situation favors the home side, play on OKLAHOMA. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-29-16 | Green Bay v. Cleveland State +1 | Top | 76-75 | Push | 0 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Cleveland State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Wisconsin Green Bay is already 1-3 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite, just 4-6 ATS after a non-conference game and only 1-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while Cleveland State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The bottom line: We think the Phoenix come in complacent and expect the hungrier home side to risk life and limb. Play on CLEVELAND STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-28-16 | Nebraska +16.5 v. Indiana | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Nebraska is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road dog of 12.5 points or more and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while Indiana is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: This also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the Hoosiers, who play ranked Louisville in a neutral site game this weekend. We think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly Huskers today. Play on NEBRASKA. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-27-16 | Kent State +11 v. Texas | Top | 63-58 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on Kent State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Kent STate is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with five of six days of rest and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 60 points or less, while Texas is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 after scoring 80 points or more and just 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing with six or less days rest. The bottom line: We’ve been saddled with an early poor line (+11), but regardless, we still think this one sets up beautifully for Kent State. Texas starts league play on the weekend and we think will get caught “looking ahead” and past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Grab as many points as you can, play on KENT STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-25-16 | Stephen F Austin +13 v. Utah | Top | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Stephen F. Austin. REASONING: It’s the final non-conference game for both teams and we’re expecting the home side to come in a bit complacent on Christmas Day as it gets caught looking ahead. Leading the way in scoring for Stephen F. Austin this year is Ivan Canete, with 13.1 PPG and 2.7 rebounds. Utah is 8-3 overall this season, but is just 4-3 over its last seven. Sedrick Barefield leads the charge for the Utes with an average of 19 PPG. Note though that Stephen F. Austin is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning straight-up record and 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a straight-up win, while Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a straight-up win and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS victory. With three ranked opponents on the horizon, we think this one sets up as a classic spot bet against the home side. Grab as many points as you can, play on STEPHEN F. AUSTIN. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-22-16 | Southern Miss +20.5 v. San Diego State | 51-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on Southern Miss. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Southern Miss is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 after scoring 60 points or less, and 12-9 ATS in its last 21 after three or more consecutive SU losses, while SDSU is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games played in the month of December and just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records. The bottom line: We think that home side gets caught looking ahead to the Christmas break and then conference play the lowly SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-21-16 | Illinois v. Missouri +7.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Missouri. REASONING: The 5-5 Tigers get ready to battle the 9-3 Fighting Illini and while we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end grab up the points in the 36th Annual Bud Light Braggin’ Rights Game. Note that the past three Braggin’ Right contests have been decided by a combined nine points. Illinois has won all three. Last year the Fighting Illini won 68-63. The Tigers have been playing decently despite the win/loss record, holding their opposition to an average of 10.3 points below their season scoring average. Illinois comes in complacent after five straight wins. And note that Illinois is just 7-9 ATS when playing on a neutral court, while Missouri is 13-8 ATS in its last 21 vs. good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest. Grab the points, play on “revenge-minded” MISSOURI. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-20-16 | Fresno State v. Oregon -14.5 | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Oregon. REASONING: We think Fresno State has a letdown in its final game before conference action. The Bulldogs enter contented after three straight wins. Oregon though is on a monster roll and we think that momentum carries over here, as the Ducks enter on the backs of an eight game win skein. Four players average ten points for the Bulldogs, but we think they’ll have their hands full at the Matthew Knight Arena, a venue considered one of the toughest to play in in the country. Oregon is 7-0 at home and is led by Chris Boucher, with 14.1 points and 7.8 boards per game. Boucher is expected to be sidelined, but the Ducks are deep and it’s just “next man up.” Note that Fresno State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 12.5 to 15 points range, while Oregon is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. Oregon is primed for another conference title run, but has some big obstacles in its way, including No. 2 UCLA and No. 18 Arizona. With the tough conference schedule upcoming, we’re expecting the home side to come in razor focused and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on OREGON. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-19-16 | College of Charleston v. LSU -5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK on LSU. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that the College of Charleston is just 11-19 ATS in its last 30 after scoring 60 points or less, while LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and 12-7 ATS in its last 19 after allowing 80 points or more. The bottom line: LSU also plays with revenge today after College Of Charleston scored an outright upset last season. It’s payback time! Lay the points, play on LSU. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-18-16 | Western Michigan v. Washington -12 | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Washington. REASONING: Both teams are below the .500 mark, with the Broncos checking in at 3-6 overall and 0-2 away from home. The Huskies are 4-5 overall and 3-2 at home. Washington averages 80 PPG, while WMU posts 74.2. You’ll want to keep your eyes on the Huskies’ Markelle Fultz, who is averaging 22.8 points, 6.9 boards and 6.1 assists this year. The Broncos ended a two game slide with a win over James Madison on Saturday, but we’re expecting an immediate return to mediocrity tonight. Despite winning, note that the Broncos allowed James Madison to shoot a season high 52 percent from the floor. The Huskies on the other hand will be desperate here, they’ve lost four straight after getting edged 87-85 at home to Nevada as 5 point favorites. Fultz had 21 points, eight assists, five boards and three steals. Note that the Broncos are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 following an ATS victory and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a losing SU record, while Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive contests. We think these trends continue and like the Huskies to win going away with a big game in front of the home town crowd. Play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-17-16 | Fresno State v. Pacific +1.5 | Top | 70-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Pacific. REASONING: Pacific has struggled this year, but is a perfect 3-0 at home to open the season. Fresno State is 7-3, while the Tigers broke a three-game slide with a win over North Carolina AT&T last time out. So far the Bulldogs average 75 PPG, while Pacific posts 69. Fresno concedes 68 PPG and the the Tigers allow 74. Fresno State is led by three players which average between 13 and 13.5 points. Anthony Townes leads the way for the Tigers along with Ray Bowles, who is posting 14 PPG average thus far. Note that Fresno State is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 60 points or less, while Pacific is already a perfect 3-0 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Looks like a classic letdown spot for the Bulldogs and we expect the home side to make the most of it. Play on PACIFIC. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-16-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -19 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Miami Florida. REASONING: No need to overthink this one in our opinion, as we expect the FAU Owls to have a predictable letdown here after their epic 79-77 OT win over Ohio State last time out. The Hurricanes took care of business against SC State, hammering it 82-46 and we look for the home side to come in focused tonight as well. The Owls were actually trailing by 11 points midway through the second half but rallied for the improbable comeback against the Buckeyes. The FAU offense is ranked 153rd overall in averaging 75.5 PPG, while the defense allows 71.9 PPG, ranked 184th. Ja’Quan Newton led the Hurricanes last time out and has reached double-digits in points in every game this year. So for Miami averages 74.2 PPG. The Hurricanes though are amongst the best in the nation on the defensive end allowing just 57.3 PPG, good for fifth overall. Note that FAU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with seven or more days of rest, while Miami Florida is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 after scoring 80 points or more. FAU isn’t going to surprise anyone anymore and now faces the toughest defense it’ll likely see all season. Because of all the various situational, motivational and trend based factors listed above, we’re expecting a lop-sided wire-to-wire beadown. Play on the HURRICANES. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-14-16 | UC-Irvine +11 v. Nevada | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Cal Irvine. REASONING: UC Irvine has played some tough opponents so far in facing three ranked teams. Most recently the Anteaters fell 84-53 at no. 12 Saint Mary’s. Fortunately for Cal Irvine, there are no more ranked teams left on the schedule. They’ll now look to reverse their fortunes with a big effort against the Nevada Wolf Pack, who look like one of the best out of the Moutain West. So far UCI averages just 61.8 PPG. The Anteaters though are among the best on the defensive end, conceding just 65.4. Jaron Martin is the leader with 12.5 points and 3.3 assists per contest. Nevada is poised for a letdown here in our opinion after its big 87-85 upset win at Pac 12 Washington on Sunday, as Marcus Marshall would hit a 15 foot runner with no time left on the clock for the victory. Marshall leads the MWC in scoring with an average of 20.4 PPG. Note though that UC Irvine is already 2-1 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less and it’s also 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 80 points or more. And note that Nevada is just 5-9 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing records and interestingly, just 3-6 ATS in its last nine vs. poor offensive teams which score 64 points or less per contest. Grab the points, play on UC IRVINE. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-14-16 | Green Bay +22.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Wisconsin Green Bay. REASONING: We think the Badgers, who have won five straight, come in a tiny bit complacent tonight and leave the back door open just enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. After losing to UNC, Wisconsin has bounced back with five straight wins, most recently over Marquette. The Phoenix have had over a week off after falling at CMU last Tuesday. The silver lining in the loss though was that Wisconsin Green Bay did post a season-high points total in the eventual 107-97 setback. Five players finished in double figures, led by Kerem Kanter, who had 23. Last year the Phoenix fell by just five points at the Kohl Center, as Wisconsin would hold on for the 84-79 win. Nigel Hayes had 24 points in that one. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a similarily hard-fought and competitive battle tonight. Note that the Phoenix are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss, while the Badgers are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 at home in this series. Grab the points, play on the PHOENIX. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-12-16 | Auburn v. Boston College +7 | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on Boston College. REASONING: We jumped on this line early and unfortunately have an unfavorable one (+7), but regardless, we love this play and while we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we’re going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Auburn is 6-1 to open the year, but we think is primed for a letdown finally. Conversely, the BC Eagles have more losses than wins (4-5) and we think they’ll be the “hungrier” team. Boston College most recently fell 65-63 at home to Hartford. Auburn hasn’t played since December 3rd when it beat UAB, so we’re expecting “rest” to lead to “rust.” This one also sets up nicely for the Eagles from a trend based stand point, as note that Auburn is just 7-17-2 ATS in its last 26 neutral court games, while BC is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a neutral court underdog in the seven to 14 points range. Play on the EAGLES. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-10-16 | Penn State v. Pittsburgh -6 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Pittsburgh. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Penn State is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after allowing 80 points or more and just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral court games, while Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four after consecutive ATS losses. The bottom line: We think PITTSBURGH’s depth will prove to be the difference down the stretch, lay the points. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-09-16 | Georgia Southern v. Minnesota -13.5 | Top | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota. REASONING: We jumped on this one early and have a poor line compared to the one currently available as of writing (we have -13.5, as of writing we have seen this one down closer to -12). Despite that though, we still love this selection as we’re expecting the home side to jump out to an early lead and to put the foot on the gas until the final horn. Georgia Southern enters off a disheartening 85-82 home loss to Florida Gulf Coast, while the Gophers beat NJIT 74-68 in their last outing. The Eagles looked horrible defensively in their last game, allowing Florida Gulf Coast to shoot 61 percent from the field. Georgia Southern was also out-rebounded 40-26 in the setback. Ike Smith was a bright spot, finishing with 23 points. So far the Eagles are scoring 78.6 PPG and allowing 71.9. Minnesota’s Akeem Springs had a big night off the bench in the Golden Gophers’ last game, finishing with a team-high 19 points on 6 of 12 shooting. Minnesota averages 75.7 PPG, but concedes just 66, which is ranked 75th overall. Note that Georgia Southern is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after allowing 80 points or more, while Minnesota is already a perfect 2-0 ATS against the Sun Belt this year and 3-1 ATS against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. The Eagles looked atrocious defensively against a weak Florida Gulf Coast team and now transition to play in an extremely hostile environment, against one of the best defenses they’ll see all year. Minnesota can hardly be happy with its performance over NJIT last time out, so we’re expecting the home side to be ultra-focused from start to finish tonight. All signs point to a lop-sided blowout, play on the GOLDEN GOPHERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-07-16 | Detroit v. Toledo -13 | 65-73 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Toledo. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Detroit is laready just 1-4 ATS in non-conference games this year and 1-3 ATS as an underdog, while Toledo is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 against teams with losing records and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. The bottom line: The Titans have struggled on the road, we’re expecting the home side to make the most of this situation. Play on TOLEDO. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-06-16 | East Carolina v. Virginia -21.5 | Top | 53-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Virginia. REASONING: East Carolina is 7-2, while Virginia is 7-1. That’s where the similarites end between these teams though, as we expect the Cavaliers smothering nation leading defense to be just too much for the Pirates to handle tonight. ECU comes in off a 69-56 home win over North Carolina Central, while Virginia looks to take out its frustrations on someone after falling 66-57 at home to WVU this past weekend. Note that the Pirates average just 69.4 PPG which is 277th overall. ECU has so far done a great job defensively, conceding an average of just 59.6 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The Cavs are coming off their first loss of the year and will clearly be looking to erase the stink of that sub-par performance from memory. Senior guard London Perrantes leads the team with 10.6 PPG. Note that the Cavs average 69.6 PPG, but allow only 46.9, the No. 1 mark in the country. Also note that ECU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five overall, while Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss and 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 against teams with a winning record. The conditions are right for a blowout of epic proportions, play on the CAVALIERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-05-16 | Siena v. Rider +4 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAAC SIDE OF THE WEEK on Rider. REASONING: Siena is 3-5 overall and 0-5 on the road. Rider is 3-3 and 0-1 at home. We think the Broncos finally get off the schneid in MAAC action. Both teams played Fairfield just last week and Siena won by seven, while Rider fell by nine. Despite that, we like the Broncos to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a “revenge” game for the home side, as Siena has won three straight in the series, including both last year. The year before that though, Rider beat Siena at home. The Saints have five players averaging double figures and are led by Marquis Wright with 18 points, 4.3 boards and 4.6 assists per game. The Broncos are led by Jimmie Taylor and Kahil Thomas, both who average 13 PPG. Three Rider players average double figures. It’s true that Siena averages 75.1 PPG, but it also gives up 76.4. Rider averages just 69.2, but concedes only 68.3. Note that the Saints are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road fav of 3.5 to six points and just 7-13 ATS in their last 20 when playing on one or less days rest, while Rider is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of 3.5 to six points and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 off a loss against a conference rival. We think the conditions are right for an outright upset, but we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on RIDER. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-03-16 | UNLV v. Arizona State -5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK on Arizona State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that UNLV is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 80 points or more and just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 road games, while ASU is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 games played in the month of December and interestingly, 2-0 ATS against the Mountain West the last two seasons. The bottom line: We expect the WILDCATS to come out extremely focused after some recent shoddy play and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-02-16 | Duquesne +13.5 v. Pittsburgh | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Duquesne. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics: As note that Duquesne is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 after allowing 80 points or more and 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing on a neutral court, while Pittsburgh is just 2-12 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 60 points or less, just 13-28 ATS in its last 41 when playing the role of favorite, only 1-8 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records and just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 neutral court affairs. The bottom line: We think Pittsburgh comes in complacent and the DUKES do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports | |||||||
12-01-16 | Columbia v. Seton Hall -16 | Top | 71-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Seton Hall. REASONING: Seton Hall is 4-2 after falling 66-52 to Stanford on Sunday in the fifth-place game of the AdvoCare Invitational in Florida. Guard Khadeen Carrington had 20 points for the fourth time already this year. A game at home against an Ivy League opponent is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked for the Pirates though, as SHU has for the most part dominated the conference, going 38-20 all time with a 12.7 average margin of victory. Also note that Seton Hall is riding a 17-game home win streak over non-conference opponents with an average scoring marging of +17.8. The Lions on the other hand enter off a crushing 88-86 loss to Hofstra and we think they’re primed for a letdown in this spot. Note that Columbia is 0-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 0-2 ATS against teams with winning records, while Seton Hall is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 at home. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-30-16 | Texas Southern v. Arizona -16 | Top | 63-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona. REASONING: Arizona played four games in seven days last week in Las Vegas, but returns home to the McKale Center with four days of rest. The Wildcats defeated Santa Clara 69-61 on Thanksgiving Day, before then falling 69-65 to Butler the next day in a game that featured 11 lead changes and nine scoring ties. But if history is any precedence, then the Wildcats have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won 36 straight non-conference games in front of the home town crowd. Also note that Arizona has won 47 of its last 60 games following at least four days of rest. The last time these teams played was in the first round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament in the Moda Center in Portland and the Wildcats would pull away for the 93-72 win. All five UA starters scored at least ten points in the win. Also note that Arizona is 13-1 in home games immediately following a loss away from Tuscon. We think that Texas Southern should be a much bigger underdog in this one as it simply doesn’t matchup well at all, note that it’s just 2-4 ATS in its last six after playing three consecutive road games. And note that AU is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 home games as a favorite of 12.5 points or more. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-17-16 | Long Beach State +21 v. Louisville | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State. REASONING: LBSU comes in battle tested already as it faces its second straight ranked opponent in the third game of the team’s opening road trip in No. 12 Louisville. Keep your eyes on Gabe Levin, who has played well for LBSU to open the season, leading the way in both scoring and rebounding through three games. LBSU received 19 of 23 first-place votes as the favorite to win the Big West Conference in 2016/17 as picked by the media panel in the Preseason. LBSU has four starters returning from last year and a ton of talent which we think can catch the Cardinals a bit off guard. Louisville gets ready to play its third straight home game, most recently clobbering William & Mary 91-58. Through the first two games, four players have averaged double figures. Note though that LBSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Louisville is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Grab as many points as you can, play on LONG BEACH STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-14-16 | Wyoming v. Montana -4.5 | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER PLAY on Montana. REASONING: Montana comes in off a hard-fought 75-61 road loss to USC, but now looks to bounce back big in front of the home town crowd. Ahmaad Rorie had to watch last season from the sidelines, sitting out a redshirt year after transferring to Montana from Oregon, but he would lead the way for the Grizzlies in this one with 21 points, 15 of which came in the first half. Wyoming comes in off an easy 88-49 home win over Western State, but now faces its first true test of the season. We think the book is still out on the Cowboys, while the Grizzlies have already proven they can play with the best in the nation. And note that Wyoming is just 10-14 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Montana is 4-2 ATS its last six at home. A great situational play, lay the points on the GRIZZLIES. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-11-16 | Indiana +5.5 v. Kansas | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Indiana. REASONING: Both teams will have a bunch of fans in the stands tonight, note that this one is being played on a neutral court in Hawaii. The Hoosiers were 27-8 last year and made it to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tourney before falling 101-86 to NC. Kansas was 33-5 and made it to the Elite Eight before falling 64-59 to Villanova. Indiana had a big hole to fill in replacing PG Yogi Ferrell, but the team is hopeful that Pittsburgh transfer Josh Newkirk will answer the call. Also keep your eyes on James Blackmon Jr., who averaged 15.8 PPG last year. Last season Indiana ranked 11th in the country in scoring at 82.6 PPG. The Hoosiers were poor defensively, but did turn things around come tournament time. The Jayhawks have won the Big 12 title 12 years in a row. Kansas also lost some talent from last year, as Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden are gone. Frank Mason will be leaned upon heavily by the Jayhawk this season, he averaged 12.9 PPG. Last year Kansas was 16th in scoring at 81.3 PPG. Defensively they were ranked 71st int he country in allowing 67.6 PPG. Kansas may find a way to win this game outright, but we think the talent on Indiana can match pace with the high-powered Jayhawks until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the HOOSIERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 95-51 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is a deep team, but it also sports arguably the best player in the nation in Buddy Hield. Villanova held Hield to just 18 points in the game these two played earlier in the season, but the Sooners still won in a blowout. Hield was 8 of 13 from behind the arc in Oklahoma’s 80-68 win over Oregon, the Sooners shot 12 of 24 from 3- point land overall vs. the Ducks. What often goes overlooked is the Sooners’ great defensive play, which would hold Oregon to just 38.9 percent shooting and 4 of 21 from 3-point land. Oklahoma holds teams to 40.5 percent overall shooting and just 33.1 percent from beyond the arc. Note that Hield is averaging 29.3 points per game shooting almost 57 percent from the field. The Sooners held Kris Jenkins, Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson to 1 of 16 from the 3-point range in the regular season beatdown. Villanova doesn’t have a bonafide super star like Hield, but instead gets the job done by committee. The Wildcats looked good defensively against KU, forcing 16 turnovers, but Villanova was just 4 of 18 from 3-point land. And that doesn’t bode well against the Sooners, who are among the best in defending the perimeter. Just like in last night’s CBI Game 3 finale, all signs point to another last-second nail-biting decision. While we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on OKLAHOMA. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-01-16 | Morehead State +4 v. Nevada | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Morehead State. Morehead State took Game 1 86-83, while Nevada bounced back at home 77-68 in Game 2. Both games have been highly competitive and each has been decided in the waning moments. We’re expecting another very tightly contested affair, one where whoever has the ball in their hands last will likely be the victor. The Wolfpack may have the higher scoring offense on average, but the Eagles are better defensively. Looking at these two teams side by side, there truly is little difference. This is a great situational play in our opinion, in what will prove to be another nail-biter, grab as many points as you can with MOREHEAD STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-26-16 | Villanova +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova. Both teams have steamrolled their ways into the Elite 8, but Villanova has looked like the more complete units on both ends of the floor and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the Wildcats to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Villanova ended up trouncing Miami 92-69 in the Sweet 16, while Kansas pulled away for a 77-63 victory over Maryland. The Wildcats average a few less points than the Jayhawks on the year (Villanova posts 77.9 PPG, while Kansas comes in a 82 PPG). Defensively though, Villanova has the upper hand, allowing just 63.8 PPG, ranking it 15th in the nation, compared to Kansas’ 67.9 points per game allowed, ranked 75th in the country. The Wildcats have turned up offensive pressure of late though, they’ve averaged 86 points or more in their three games in the NCAA Tourney and combined with their clearly superior defensive unit, all signs do indeed point to VILLANOVA as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-25-16 | Indiana +6 v. North Carolina | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Indiana. Indiana is no joke, after destroying Chattanooga 99-74 in the opening round, it would go on to beat Kentucky 73-67 in the second. The Hoosiers have answered the call all year, after winning the Big 10 regular season title, but coming up short in the conference tournament, the team has responded big time and we fully expect this momentum to get carried over here. The Hoosiers are tough and they’re well balanced and are able to keep pace on both ends of the floor with anyone in the country. We think UNC is going to be in for a shock today in Indiana’s ability to take full control of a game and to dictate the pace at both ends of the court. UNC smashed FGCU and then hammered Providence 85-66 in the second round. UNC’s hopes rest on the shoulders of arguably the countries best frontcourt in Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson. The Tar Heels like to push the pace of the game, but they are not going to be able to outrun the talented Hoosiers today and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for INDIANA to at the very least take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-16 | Duke +3 v. Oregon | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke. The Blue Devils come into this one battle tested and ready to shock the No. 1 seeded Ducks. While we obviously wouldn’t be surprised by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for Duke to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Duke beat No. 13 UNC-Wilmington 93-85 and the 12-seed Yale Bulldogs 71-64. Grayson Allen leads a team which averages 81.5 PPG on 46.1 percent shooting. The Blue Deivls are pretty average defensively though, allowing 72.2 PPG. The Ducks seem vulnerable in this spot and ripe for the picking. Oregon rolled over Holy Cross, 91-52 in its opener, but then was in a fight for its life in an eventual 69-64 win over St. Joe’s on Sunday. The Ducks average 78.9 PPG and allow 68.5. Duke averages nearly 3-points per game more and has looked much better defensively since the start of this Tournament. It’s hard to imagine Oregon matching pace down the stretch the way it played against St. Joseph’s. As we stated off the top, we wouldn’t be shocked by an upset here, but we’re going to grab the points. Play on DUKE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova. The 27-7 Miami Hurricanes get ready to battle with 31-5 Villanova. The Wildcats defeated UNC Asheville by a score of 86-56 in their opener, followed by an 87-68 victory over Iowa, while Miami beat Buffalo by a score of 79-72 and Wichita State by a score of 65-57. Villanova looked dominant in both games, Josh Hart led the way in the win over the Hawkeyes with 19 points and four boards. Villanova finished the regular seaosn by winning five of its last six games, with the only setback coming to Seton Hall in the Big East Conference Championship. The Wildcats average 77 points per game while giving up just 63.7. Miami’s last loss was to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes average 75.6 points and give up 66.8 per. Villanova averages more PPG and gives up less. The Wildcats also enjoy a rebounding advantage. Villanova has excelled in its first two games, while Miami gave up a monster lead in its win over the Shockers, holding on for dear life at the end. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WILDCATS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-23-16 | Grand Canyon +3.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* CIT QUARTERFINAL SIDE OF THE YEAR on Grand Canyon. The 27-6 Grand Canyon Antelopes meet with the 20-11 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the CIT Quarterfinal on Wednesday and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for these two evenly matched teams to take this one right down to the wire. The Antelopes come into this one off a 78-74 win over South Carolina State and a 65-54 victory over Jackson State. Grand Canyon comes in with momentum, it ended the regular season by winning six of its last eight games and finished tied for second in the WAC standings, but was unable to play in the conference tournament due to it transition to Division 1 status. The Antelopes can put the rock in the hole with the best of them, averaging 76.8 PPG, while giving up just 68.6. The Chanticleers enter the Quarterfinal round off of a 65-57 win over Mercer and a 71-62 victory over New Hampshire. Coastal Carolina averages 74.7 points while giving up only 67.3 per contest. We simply feel that Grand Canyon has traveled a much harder road to this point and is the more tested and that in the end this experience will nullify any advantage that the Chanticleers may have had on their own floor. Play on the ANTELOPES. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-22-16 | Creighton v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on BYU. Creighton beat Alabama 72-54 in the first round and Wagner 87-54 in the second, while BYU beat UAB 97-79 in the first round, before then outlasting Virginia Tech in a slim victory in the second. So far it’s been a cake-walk for the Blue Jays, but clearly the talent level across the board goes up significantly now in facing the Cougars. Creighton’s defensive numbers have been impressive through the first two rounds, allowing only 54 points in both games, but don’t read too much into that. BYU is eighth in the country in scoring offense at 83.7 PPG, shooting 46.4 percent as a team and is in an entirely different league than either Alabama or Wagner. The Blue Jays also average quite a bit, at 79.6 PPG, ranking them 32nd in the country. We’re going with battle tested BYU in this one though, which has faced tougher teams than Creighton to get to this point. The Cougars average a few more points and give up the same amount, but also enjoy a significant edge on the glass. That’s good enough for us, play on BYU. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-20-16 | St. Joe's v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Oregon. St. Joes is coming off a thrilling 78-76 win over Cincinnati on Friday and has been a nice story to this point, but we think the Hawks run comes to an end tonight vs. No. 1 seeded Oregon. The Ducks come into the round of 32 after destroying Holy Cross 91-52. The Hawks average 77.3 PPG and give up 69.8. Oregon averages 78.8 PPG game and give up just 69.1. Also note that Oregon is 4th in the country in blocks with 5.91 per contest. The key factor for us though is that the Ducks’ starters were all rested in their opening destruction of Holy Cross, while St. Joe’s had to battle tooth and nail down to the final second for its victory. Oregon has the superior depth and averages more points. A bunch of different factors do indeed point to the DUCKS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-20-16 | VCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 81-85 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Oklahoma. VCU advanced to the round of 32 by taking out Oregon State by eight points, while Oklahoma earned a 14 point victory over Cal State Bakersfield. VCU for the most part was solid all season, it would lose to St. Joe’s by 13 points in the A-10 Title game. The Rams looked solid in their 75-67 win over the Beavers. Oklahoma came into the NCAA tourney with something to prove, it won three of its last four, losing 69-67 to WVU in the Big 12 semifinals when Buddy Hield’s shot from half court at the buzzer was waived off by the refs. Hield had 27 points in the win over the Roadrunners and the team shot 50 percent overall, including 11 of 20 from beyond the arc. To keep this short and sweet, we think that VCU has been a great story to this point and the win over the Pac-12 team in the opening round was impressive, but Hield and the Sooners are on a completely different level. We expect the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OKLAHOMA. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-20-16 | Florida v. Ohio State -1 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio State. Florida would bounce back from a SEC Tournament loss at the hands of Texas A&M to beat North Florida 97-68 on Tuesday. We had the Gators in that one. Florida though was middling on the road this year, while Ohio State was dominant at home. We simply can’t state how important we feel that home floor advantage will be in this one. The Buckeyes got past Akron on Tuesday, thanks in large part to 18 points from a trio of players in Kam Williams, Marc Loving and Jaquan Lyle. Ohio State made 21 of 23 free-throw attemps as well. Florida’s offense looked decent against the Ospreys, but consistency from game to game on that end of the court has been the Gators achilles heel all year long. Not to mention that scoring on North Florida is one thing, while scoring against this talented Ohio State team is quite another. In our professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of great line value. Play on the BUCKEYES. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-16 | Butler v. Virginia -7 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia. We think No. 9 seeded Butler comes to the end of the road in the Tournament as the bigger and deeper No. 1 seeded Cavaliers find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Kellen Dunham had 23 points in 31 mintues in the Bulldogs’ 71-61 win over Texas Tech in the First Round. Butler averages 80.3 PPG and shoots 46.6 percent as a team, but where the Bulldogs fall short is on the defensive end, giving up 70.8 PPG. Virginia annihilated Hampton 81-45 in its opening round game, shooting over 55 percent, including a 12/25 showing from behind the arc. The Cavs looked sharp on the defensive end as well, holding Hampton to just 30 percent shooting. The Cavs shoot 48.7 percent as a team and are ranked No. 1 in the country on the defensive end, holding opponents to just 59.2 PPG off 42.1 percent shooting. Butler is clearly a good team, but the CAVALIERS are on an entirely different level and we think their smothering defense will prove to be just too much for the Bulldogs to overcome. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-16 | Yale v. Duke -5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Duke. No. 12 Yale would beat No. 5 Baylor 79-75 on Thursday as a 5.5 point underdog. Obviously the Bulldogs have to be loving life right now, not only did they get the big upset win in the first round, but it’s the first ever NCAA Tournament win for the team, which is making its first appearance in 52 years. Can anyone say classic letdown spot? The Blue Devils advanced with a less than inspiring 94-85 win over UNC Wilmington on Thursday, unable to cover the 9.5 point spread (we had Wilmington in that one). But now Duke is in the right place at the right time, we think sophomore Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram are going to have big nights vs. the overmatched Bulldogs. And if history is any precednece, then Duke has to be loving its chances today as it’s 5-0 ATS its last five vs. the Ivy League, while Yale is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. the ACC. These teams actually played on November 25th at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Blue Devils would pull away for the convincing 80-61 win. We think an even bigger blowout is in the cards. Play on DUKE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-16 | Wagner +15 v. Creighton | Top | 54-87 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
This is a SECOND ROUND NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Wagner. Wagner comes into the second round with momentum and we believe the team will carry it over into this one. The Seahawks upset St. Bonaventure in their first round matchup, while Creighton cruised to an 18 point win over Alabama. Wagner’s victory was significant because many thought the Bonnies should have fact been invited to the Big Dance, but instead they’d receive a No. 1 seed in the NIT. The Seahawks won by four, led by Romone Saunders off the bench with 21 points, seven boards and four assists. The Blue Jays finished 9-9 in the BIg East and was led by Maurice Watson Jr., who averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 assists and 3.4 boards per game. The Seahawks continue to go underrated by their opposition and by the bookmakers and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we’ll point out that Wagner is 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 12.5 to 15 points range. We think Creighton comes in a bit complacent here and that WAGNER takes this one down to the wire. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-18-16 | Michigan +3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. So far we’ve had a ton of success playing on or against Michigan during the tournaments. First we were on the Wolverines in their conference upset over Indiana. Then we went against Michigan in its semi-finals loss to Purdue. We then were back on the Wolverines in their First Four victory over Tulsa. Now we’ll look to continue that success. Michigan comes in battle tested and ready to prove itself again and we think it can catch ND off-guard and at the very least, expect it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rest invariably leads to rust and Notre Dame hasn’t played in over a week when it was last seen losing to North Carolina in the semifinals of the ACC Tourney. Michigan averages 38 percent from behind the 3-point line, but uncharacteristically struggled against Tulsa. The Wolverines looked great defensively though and we think are going to be able to slow down this ND attack (note that Michigan allows just 67.3 PPG). The Irish shoot 36.9 percent from behind the arc, but they allow teams to shoot 37.6 from 3-point range. That does not bode well vs. MICHIGAN. Look for the WOLVERINES to take this one down to the wire. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-18-16 | Pittsburgh v. Wisconsin -2 | Top | 43-47 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* OPENING ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin. Wisconsin interim coach Greg Gard made the most of his opportunity after Bo Ryan stepped away, directing the Badgers back to another Big Dance. Gard has had his interim label removed and he’ll now be looking to make a deep run into the tournament. Pittsburgh may have finished 21-11 overall, but the Panthers would struggle down the stretch of their season and would lose to eventual ACC Tourney Champ UNC in the quarterinal of that event. Pittsburgh enters having dropped four of its last six. The Badgers closed the season strong after a 9-9 start to finish 20-12 overall. Gard has continued Ryan’s schemes, especially on the defensive end where WIsconsin allows opponents to score the ball at a rate of 95.3 points per 100 possessions, which is ranked 24th in the country. So not only are the Panthers struggling with consistency right now, the numbers aren’t working in their favor either as they’re an amazingly bad 0-9 ATS in March games over the last two seasons. Wisconsin is playing with better chemistry right now and the combination of Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes will be too much for Pittsburgh to handle in the paint, play on the BADGERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-17-16 | Providence v. USC +2 | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 80 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on USC. Providence got bounced from the Big East Tournament early against Villanova. The Wildcats would smother Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil on the defensive end, holding the duo to just 12 total points. Villanova has given USC the blueprint to slow down the Friars. The Trojans lost to Utah in the Pac 12 Conference tournament. USC loves to get out and push the pace and we think this will prove to be too much for Providence to handle down the stretch; note that USC averages 72.0 possessions per 40 minutes, ranked 49th in the NCAA. Opponents are also scoring the ball at a rate of 99.9 per 100 possessions, which is ranked 89th in the country. The Trojans are also adept at guarding the three-ball, allowing opponents to hit just 32.3 percent, ranked 63rd. USC’s depth proves to be the difference today. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-17-16 | Chattanooga v. Indiana -12 | 74-99 | Win | 100 | 77 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Indiana. The Mocs won the Southern Conference at 15-3 and then won the conference tournament as well, finishing a highly respectable 29-5 overall. Indiana won the tough Big Ten regular season title, but got bounced by Michigan early in the conference tournament as a 6.5 point fav. We had the Wolverines in that one. The Hoosiers finished 15-3 in conference and 25-7 overall. Indiana though will clearly be looking to take out its frustrations after the “brain fart” against Michigan cost it a shot at the conference tournament title. In Tennessee Chattanooga’s only game vs. a ranked team, it lost by 20 to Iowa State. This is a battle of David and Goliath, but this time around the giant is going to take care of business. Note that the Mocs are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site contests, while Indiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 following an ATS loss. Look for INDIANA to roll. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington +11 v. Duke | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NC Wilmington. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that UNC Wilmington is already 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS in all neutral court games, while Duke is 0-6 ATS in all neutral court contests this year and just 12-13 ATS when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: We think Duke gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today and while we won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on UNC WILMINGTON. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-16-16 | UAB v. BYU -9.5 | 79-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on BYU. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: It’s the No. 7 seed UAB Blazers taking on the No. 2 seed BYU Cougars. UAB had a 16-2 record in the C-USA, but failed to win the tournament. BYU finished in third in the WCC with a 13-5 record. These team’s overall win/loss records may be similar, but that’s where it ends in my opinion. UAB is ranked 115th in the Ken Pomeroy’s College Basketball Rankings, while BYU is ranked 59th overall. It was a devastating tournament run for the Blazers, who were picked by most to win the event. Instead the team fell 88-77 to Western Kentucky, getting out-rebounded 50-28. The team averages 79 points and allows 69.6. The Cougars average 83.6 PPG and allow 72.2. We simply can’t see the Blazers matching pace with BYU down the stretch and think this spread should be a bit larger. Play on BYU. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-16-16 | Tulsa v. Michigan -3 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan. We played on Michigan in its Conference Tournament upset win over Indiana and then bet against the Wolverines in their setback to Purdue. We’re once again going back the other way for this one though as we expect Michigan to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Tulsa won four of its last five before getting annihilated by Memphis in the AAC Tournament on March 11th. The Golden Hurricane are led by Shaquille Harrison, who averages 14.8 points, 5.5 boards, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals. Tulsa’s glaring weaknesses were on full display in the setback to the Tigers, as it was out-rebounded by five in the setback (note that the Golden Hurricane are also weak in defending the 3-ball, allowing opponents to shoot 36.3 percent. This of course plays right into the Wolverines strength). Note that Michigan averages 38.4 percent from beyond the arc, led by Derrick Walton Jr. at 39.3 percent. Experience in these types of games can’t be overlooked as well, Tulsa is filled with seniors, but it’s 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral court games and 0-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog, while Michigan is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten NCAA Tournament contests and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six a an NCAA Tournament favorite. MICHIGAN’s ability to shoot the 3-ball and Tulsa’s inability to defend it adequately turns out to be the difference today. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-15-16 | Vanderbilt +3.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Vanderbilt. One thing you can’t teach is “size.” The Shockers will have to contend with a major size discrepancy today and its a matchup factor which we feel will be too much for them to overcome. Vanderbilt has two 7-footers in its line-up, keep your eyes on 7-0 center Damian Jones, who was named to the SEC’s first team for averaging over 14 PPG on 60 percent shooting. The Commodores also lean on 7-1 junior Luke Kornet (7.2 PPG), who averages three blocks per contest. Wichita State was devastated by injuries earlier in the year and while its shown flashes this season, consistency from game-to-game has been a major issue. After a lacklustre 5-5 start, the Shockers would then win 19 of 21 before falling to Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley Conference semifinals. Not only will Wichita State have to deal with trying to match-up against the much larger Commodores, but it’ll also be playing for the first time in ten days. Vanderbilt last played on Thursday. Rest invariably leads to rust and we definitely expect this to be a major factor as well once the final buzzer sounds. And it’s as simple as that for us. Vanderbilt has two distinct advantages working in its favor in this matchup and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on VANDERBILT. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-15-16 | Florida -7.5 v. North Florida | Top | 97-68 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida. Florida did not make it to the NCAA tournament, but it wasn’t a shocker at all, the team knew that it would be excluded as the SEC conference is simply stacked from top to bottom with eight schools finishing with 19 or more victories. The Gators have earned the No. 2 seed in the NIT and won’t be disappointed in being relegated to the “lesser” tournament, instead we expect them to try and dominate this event. Florida would eventually fall 72-66 to Texas A&M last Thursday in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators average 73.6 poitns and allow just 68.6. We think the Gators’ tough defensive play will be too much for the North Florida Osprey to overcome today. North Florida is surely still feeling “shell shocked” after going into the 2016 Atlantic Sun Tournament as the No. 1 seed, only to then get destroyed by eventual tournament winner Florida Gulf Coast by a score of 89-56. The Osprey shot just 31 percent on the night and were out-rebounded by 49-24. The Osprey do average 84.8 PPG, but allow 79 (note that North Florida is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss of more than 20 points). In every respect, Florida is the better team today and in our professional opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the GATORS. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-13-16 | Purdue v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Michigan State. We had Michigan in its upset over Indiana and then took Purdue to take care of the Wolverines. Michigan State lost to Purdue 82-81 in OT on February 9th and will be out to avenge that setback, while also cementing a No. 1 seed in The Tournament. Purdue used its size and defense to eventually pull away from the Wolverines, but those strengths will both be negated today by MSU’s superior defensive pressure. MSU would hold the Terps to just 33.3 percent shooting in its 64-61 win over Maryland on Saturday. In fact, not only does Michigan State rank first in three-point shooting percentage (43.5), second in field goal defense (37.7), but it’s also 13th in three-point shooting defense (30.4 percent). Note that the underdog is just 2-5 ATS the last seven in this series, while MSU is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 following a SU victory. Deadly from the outside and among the best in the country on the defensive end, combined with the revenge factor from the regular season loss does indeed make MICHIGAN STATE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-12-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 59-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Purdue. Purdue is too big, too talented and too deep for Michigan, which has won back-to-back games to advantace to the semifinals. Michigan was on the bubble heading into the tournament and needed at least two victories to ensure its spot in the Big Dance. The Wolverines got those two victories and can now take the foot off the gas. The Boilermakers on the other hand have much bigger plans and an exit at this point would be considered a major letdown. In their win over the Illini, the Boilermakers’ 89 points were their second most in a Big Ten Tournament game in school history. Purdue has now shot over 50.0 percent from the floor in five straight games and over 55.0 percent in three straight. We think it’s also important to point out that Purdue’s bench outscored Illinois’ by a 42-to-8 margin. Michigan has been a great story, but we think has a predictable “hangover” in this spot. No need to overanalyze this one, we expect the BOILERMAKERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-11-16 | Michigan +6.5 v. Indiana | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan. It’s a quick turnaround for the Wolverines after they held on for a 72-70 OT win over Northwestern yesterday. Michigan has a lot to play for here, as it’ll be out to avenge an earlier loss to Indiana in which it clawed its way back from a 21-point deficit in the second half, only to have their effort fall short. The Wolverines also need one more win to punch their ticket to the Big Dance: “We gotta rest right now,” said Michigan coach John Beilein. “We gotta rest and get ready for tomorrow. We’ll have shoot around time here — we won’t use it — we’ll just walk and talk and watch clips of the Indiana game, as well as watch for similarities between this game and what Indiana will do.” Indiana has four players scoring in double figures, but will a five-day layoff be detrimental here? Rest invariably leads to rust, we think the Wolverines can actually use this to their benefit today and catch the Hoosiers a little flat footed out of the gate. One player to keep your eyes on is Michigan junior forward Zak Irvin, who had eight boards while also scoring the Wolverines’ winning jumper yesterday. Note that Michgian is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Indiana is just 4-5 ATS in the same position. While we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the WOLVERINES to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-10-16 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Georgia | 69-79 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Mississippi State. Mississippi State ended the regular season on a high-note, earning the No. 11 seed in the tournament following a 79-66 win over Auburn. Georgia is the tournaments No. 6 seed, finishing 10-8 in conference after a 70-63 win over Alabama in its regular season finale. Revenge is a major factor today though in our opinion, Mississippi State has lost four straight in this series, including a 9-3 mark in SEC tournament action. Note that Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge an ATS loss to a conference opponent of nine points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on MISSISSIPPI STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-10-16 | Alabama +3 v. Ole Miss | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Alabama. Mississippi came back from an eight point halftime deficit to capture a 74-66 victory over Alabama back on January 7th. It’s payback time for the Crimson Tide, who lost their conference opener in that one. In fact, Alabama comes into this one having dropped three straight and five of the last six in the series. Alabama though is just one of 15 teams in the country to have beaten four teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this year. As we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these teams are pretty evenly matched and we completely agree. In a contest which we foresee coming down to the last shot, all signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest; play on ALABAMA. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-10-16 | Arkansas v. Florida -2.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Florida. Arkansas finished 16-15, while Florida finished 18-13. The Razorbacks average 78.7 points and allow 74.9, while the Gators average 74 and give up 68.7. Experience in this spot can’t be overlooked, note that Arkansas is already 0-3 this year on neutral court, while Florida is 2-1. Florida is still on the bubble of a Big Dance ticket and will need a win or two at least in the tournament to secure a victory. Ultimately we think the Gators’ hard-nosed defense will be too much for the Razorbacks to overcome. Note that Arkansas is just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 following an ATS loss, while Florida is 6-3 ATS in its last nine vs. good offensive teams which average 77-points or more per contest. Play on the GATORS. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-09-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon State -3 | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Oregon State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Revenge factor: The 11th seeded Sun Devils played the Beavers just once this season and won 86-68 on January 28th. ATS statistics: Note that ASU is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine on a neutral court, while Oregon State is 2-1 ATS this year on a neutral court and 6-4 ATS when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: With a chance to avenge the earlier loss, we look for the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OREGON STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-09-16 | UCLA +1.5 v. USC | 71-95 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UCLA. The Bruins are the No. 10 seed, while the Trojans are the No. 7. UCLA was 3-4 vs. teams ranked in the AP top-25 this year, including wins over No. 1 Kentucky, No. 20 Gonzaga and No. 7 Arizona. The Bruins are a well rounded team who have five players which average ten or more points per game. We’re giving the Bruins the big nod in the experience department here, the team has won five of six games in the tournament the past two seasons. Note that the Bruins have won at least one game in the conference tournament in each of the past four seasons. UCLA plays with the double revenge factor after dropping both games to USC this season. Note though that the Trojans have struggled in this spot for bettors this year, going just 3-5 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival, while UCLA is 8-6 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on UCLA. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-09-16 | Stanford +2 v. Washington | 68-91 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Stanford. The Cardinal are out for payback today and if history is any precedence, then they have to be loving their chances. Stanford lost its only meeting with Washington this year, but it would defeat UW in last year’s Pac-12 Tournament opener on a buzzer beater. Five members of the Cardinal are averaging double figures in the scoring column this season and it’s the first time a Stanford team has had five individuals average double figures since 1948. Note that Stanford is 4-2 ATS this season in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent and already 2-0 ATS this year in neutral court contests, while Washington is just 1-2 ATS this year when playing with five or six days rest and only 1-3 ATS when playing on a neutral court. Grab as many points as you can, play on STANFORD. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-08-16 | Boston College +13 v. Florida State | 66-88 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Boston College. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Look-ahead spot: Despite this being the first round of the ACC tournament, it’s not too hard to imagine the 18-12 Seminoles taking the lowly 7-24 Eagles a little lightly today. BC was winless in conference play and is in the midst of an 18-game losing streak. Despite all of these facts, we think the value has now swung to the dog in this situation. ATS statistics: Note that the Eagles have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors this season, going 4-2 ATS in their last six vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while FSU has struggled by going just 6-9 ATS when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: This line is already dropping, grab as many points as you can as we expect the sizeable dog to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-08-16 | Wake Forest +4.5 v. NC State | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC Tournament GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Both teams are terrible: Wake Forest finished 11-19, while NC State was 15-16. The Demon Deacons lost three in a row and 14 of 15, but looked decent in their 79-71 loss at Duke in the regular season finale. The Wolfpack dropped three of their last four, most recently getting crushed 89-75 at Notre Dame last weekend. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers. They met twice in the regular season and Wake would win 77-74 at home on January 10th, before NC State returned the favor in a 99-88 shootout on February 13th. ATS statistics: Note that Wake Forest is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing on a neutral court and 4-1 ATS in its last six when playing with five or six days rest, while NC State is just 1-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 1-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for this one to come down to the wire. Play on WAKE FOREST. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-07-16 | Pepperdine v. St. Mary's -7.5 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* WCC Tourney GAME OF THE YEAR on Saint Mary’s. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Double revenge scenario: The Pepperdine Waves would beat San Francisco to advance to the WCC Quarter-Finals and were the only team to defeat the Gaels twice in the regular season. It’s payback time. Defensive number discrepancies: These teams nearly average the same amount of points on the offensive end (St. Mary’s averages 74.7, while Pepperdine averages 73.7), but the Gaels only give up an average of 60 PPG, while the Waves give up an average of 70.9. The bottom line: No need to overanalyze this one in our opinion, the double revenge factor along with these massive number mismatches does indeed make SAINT MARY’S the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-06-16 | Nebraska +4.5 v. Northwestern | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Nebraska. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Lots to play for: At 14-16 overall and 6-11 in conference, at first glance it may not appear as if the Huskers have much to play for today, but that would in fact be completely inaccurate. If Nebraska can win its final game of the regular season, it would lock up a first-round bye for next weeks’ Big Ten Tournament, plus a win by either Michigan State, Purdue or Illinois. Revenge: Despite Benny Parker setting a career high with 17 points and seven assists, highlighted by five 3-pointers, Nebraska fell 81-72 to Northwestern in the team’s Big Ten opener on December 30th. It was a disappointing setback and one the Huskers won’t soon forget as the Wildcats overcame a 12-point second half deficit for the victory. ATS statistics: Note the Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last six in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent after leading the setback by at least ten points at half time, while Northwestern is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams, but the situational factors and strong ATS trends are all pointing to a nail-biter. Grab the points with NEBRASKA. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-05-16 | Louisville +5 v. Virginia | Top | 46-68 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Louisville. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: Here’s another great revenge scenario as the Cardinals would fall 63-47 to Virginia on January 30th. Louisville enters the final game of the regular season with plenty of momentum, winning four of its last five, including a 56-53 over Georgia Tech last time out. ATS statistics: Note that Louisville is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a loss by 14 points or more vs. a conference opponent, while Virginia is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back covers vs. conference opponents. The bottom line: These teams are separated by just a single game in the standings, an all out war is in the cards, so in a contest which we envision coming down to whoever has the final possession, we’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on LOUISVILLE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-05-16 | California v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Arizona State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a couple of different factors: Revenge: I played on Arizona State in its game vs. Stanford on Thursday and it would break a four game losing streak and avenge an earlier loss to the Cardinal. Here’s another revenge situation vs. California as the Sun Devils fell 75-70 on January 21st to the Golden Bears. Classic letdown spot: After winning seven straight, Cal finally had a letdown in a 64-61 loss to Arizona last time out, a team which now sits two games ahead of it with one to play. The motivation factor is low for the Golden Bears right now. ATS statistics: Note that Cal is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a SU loss following a five game or more unbeaten streak, while ASU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. a Pac-12 opponent. The bottom line: In a contest which we envision coming down to the wire, we’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on ARIZONA STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-04-16 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +2 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games where the total is 145 to 149.5 and just 5-7 ATS in true road games, while Bowling Green is 15-12 ATS in its last 27 after scoring 60 points or less. The bottom line: A couple of bottom feeders going head to head here, each comes in on lengthy runs of futility, but the difference is that the Falcons plays with revenge here after falling 88-74 to Buffalo on February 20th. Grab as many points as you can with BOWLING GREEN. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-03-16 | Stanford v. Arizona State -3 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of difference making factors: Revenge: The Sun Devils fell to Stanford 75-73 on January 23rd. Road vs. home records: The Cardinal are just 2-6 on the road, while ASU is 10-5 in front of the home town crowd. ATS statistics: Note that Stanford is just 2-6 ATS on the road this season and only 2-5 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Arizona State is already 3-1 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: Three key factors collide to make ARIZONA STATE the savvy move in this matchup. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-02-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Mississippi. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Ole Miss guard Stefan Moody: Moody has been on a tear of late and he’s a big reason why we love this pick. We simply can’t see the Bulldogs slowing him down. Note that Moody leads the SEC, while ranking ninth nationally in scoring at 22.8 PPG this season. He’s posted 19, 20-plus points games and has topped the 30-point plateau three times. Revenge: These teams played on January 16th and the Bulldogs would pull off the 83-77 victory. It’s payback time. ATS statistics: Note that Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS this season off a win vs. a conference rival, while Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: The crowd will be amped and so will MISSISSIPPI’s talented senior’s. And with some very real “revenge motivation” working in their favor, all signs do indeed point to the Rebels as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
02-29-16 | Syracuse +11.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Syracuse. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge game: North Carolina beat the Orange 84-73 on January 16th. In fact, this is a double revenge scenario after Syracuse fell 93-83 to the Tar Heels on January 26th, 2015 as well. Momentum: Sure UNC is 23-6 and in a dog fight for top spot in the conference, but the Orange have been rolling as well, winning nine of their last 12. In fact, the Tar Heels have looked pretty ordinary of late, having split their last eight games. As far as overall consistency from game to game right now is concerned, the scales swing in favor of the Orange. ATS statistics: Note that Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, while North Carolina is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six following a straight up loss and interestingly, just 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine on Big Monday. The bottom line: Syracuse has improved in leaps in bounds since the last time UNC saw it, especially on the defensive end of the floor. We think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this fact and while we won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this one. Play on the ORANGE. AAA Sports | |||||||
02-28-16 | Washington v. Oregon -10 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Home sweet home: The Ducks are still in No. 1 in the Pac-12 and after back-to-back victories over Oregon State and Washington State, they’ve now won a school record 24 straight in front of the home town crowd. So with two tough road games to finish the season, today’s contest clearly takes on added importance for Oregon. Stumbling down the stretch: A once promising season has gone by the way side for the Huskies, after a 7-3 start they’ve lost five of their last six. The team will still be lamenting its 82-81 setback at Oregon State last Thursday, in which a 3-pointer at the buzzer sealed their fate. And unfortunately, a date in Eugene is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as they’ve lost five straight there. Massive statistical discrepancies: Oregon averages a conference-low 10.3 turnovers and just 8.7 over its last six, while Washington’s 14.4 giveaways are the most in the Pac-12. ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 13-20 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 80 points or more, while Oregon is 6-1 ATS its last seven vs. good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. The bottom line: This is a motivational mismatch, we’re expecting a wire-to-wire rout, play on the DUCKS. AAA Sports | |||||||
02-26-16 | Columbia +9.5 v. Princeton | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Columbia. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Revenge: Two of the top teams in the Ivy League go head to head tonight, The Columbia Lions have won two straight and four of five, while Princeton has won six straight. So where’s the advantage you ask? We think the “revenge factor” is a major one today, the Tigers have won four straight and nine of the last ten in the series, including an 88-83 OT victory in Columbia on February 13th. ATS statistics: Note that Columbia is already 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 4-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Princeton is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and only 2-3 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: These teams are very evenly matched on both ends of the floor, but the revenge factor and these strong and relevant ATS trends, combined with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to it, all do indeed make COLUMBIA the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |