Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-20 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -15 | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Wisconsin should clobber Nebraska here. Nebraska is one of only two teams in the Big 10 that has no chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They’ve lost 8 of 11 and three in a row. This is a team that gives up an average of 78.6 points in road games. Wisconsin may not score a ton as is evident by the fact they have not gone over 60 points in any of their last three games. But they still won two of those, only losing the one to Michigan State on Friday. Other than that loss, the Badgers have been playing tremendous defense recently. Five of the last seven opponents have not gone over 57 points. They win by an average of 15 points/game in Madison where their only loss in nine tries came by a single point. Considering Nebraska just allowed 80 points in its last two losses, this should be a big offensive night of the Badgers. Combine that with the usual brand of defense and you get a blowout. Play on WISCONSIN AAA | |||||||
01-21-20 | Butler v. Villanova -4 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VILLANOVA Villanova has been the standard bearer for the Big East since the conference realigned in 2013. They have the regular season title every year but one since then. But in 2020, they are joined at the top by both Seton Hall and Butler. The Wildcats will host Butler Tuesday. They come in as the higher ranked team due to the events of last week. They won both games while Butler lost both of theirs. So they’ve got the momentum. They also have the home court edge. Nova is 9-0 at home so far and giving up only 62.4 points/game here. At 14-3 SU overall, they are 12-1 when favored. This is a pretty small number. Butler just lost on the road - to DePaul. It was a 13-point loss. The Bulldogs turned it over 17 times and gave up a season high point total with DePaul scoring 79 and making 10 of 17 three-point attempts. Villanova comes in playing very well as they’ve won four straight. Their recent defensive play has been very good. They have won and covered four of the last five games against Butler. Play on VILLANOVA AAA | |||||||
01-20-20 | Rice +13 v. North Texas | Top | 59-79 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on RICE North Texas is humming along with a 5-1 Conference USA record. They’ve won five straight games, covering the spread in all of them. That gives them a 13-4 ATS record overall and they are 6-1 ATS as a favorite. But it’s a big spread Monday, larger than what the Mean Green are accustomed to laying. They escaped Louisiana Tech with a 51-50 win on Saturday, a game where they were a six-point underdog. They won at the buzzer and it was their first win in Ruston since 1952! Fading North Texas in this spot seems pretty straightforward as there’s a letdown factor after pulling an upset like that. With Rice, there’s no letdown as they have lost six of seven and are desperate to pick up a victory. The Owls probably won’t win this game, their third on the road in the last five days, but keeping it close is something we like them to do. They are 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 80 or more points in their last game. Play on RICE AAA | |||||||
01-19-20 | California +9 v. UCLA | Top | 40-50 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CAL Two struggling Pac 12 teams close out the week against one another. California won a couple home games last week, beating the Pac 12’s Washington contingent, but failed to “show up” in an ugly 88-56 loss at USC on Thursday. Going back, the Bears have lost 5 of 7 and 7 out of the last 10 games. All the wins were in Berkeley. They’re on the road tonight, but UCLA is struggling in its own right. The Bruins have lost three in a row and six of their last seven games. They also could not even muster 60 points in their last game as they fell to Stanford on Wednesday. UCLA is 1-7 ATS its last eight games, so the idea of laying this many points with them is not appetizing to say the least. The team’s only win since December 14th was by two points at Washington. We don’t see how you could lay the points in this one. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA | |||||||
01-18-20 | BYU +13 v. Gonzaga | Top | 69-92 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BYU Gonzaga is #1 in the country, but we don’t believe they are the best team. It’s quite likely that they would be underdogs against Duke, Kansas or Michigan State on a neutral floor. They may not be facing any of those teams tonight, but they are laying too many points. Coming off a 50-point win over Santa Clara, we figured the Zags would be overvalued for this Saturday night matchup with BYU and they are. BYU has covered eight of its last night games, also going 8-1 SU in the same stretch. The only SU loss was by three to St. Mary’s in overtime. Since then, the Cougars have recorded two straight wins by more than 20 points. Look for them to give Gonzaga a run for the money late Saturday night. Play on BYU AAA | |||||||
01-18-20 | Oregon -1.5 v. Washington | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon comes into this game ranked #8 in both polls. But they are almost certain to see that ranking drop after they lost out in Pullman on Thursday, 72-61 to Washington State. That was a shocking loss as the Ducks came in as nine-point favorites. They were outplayed by a team that had not beaten a top 10 opponent going back to 2007. While, on paper, today’s matchup with Washington looks to be the tougher of the two games this week, we are looking for the Ducks to bounce back here. Washington has lost four of its last six games to fall to 12-6 on the year, though they did beat Oregon State on Thursday. The Huskies are pretty strong defensively, but have not faced an opponent with the offensive capabilities of an Oregon since allowing 83 in a loss to Gonzaga over a month ago. The Ducks have dropped two straight conference games just six times in the last three seasons. Earlier this month, in what was a second road game in three days, they bounced back from a loss to Colorado to win at Utah. It’ll be the same deal here and the line is a non-factor. Play on OREGON AAA | |||||||
01-17-20 | Fairfield v. Iona -5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IONA Iona is having a bad season (so far) but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact they haven’t played many home games. This will be just the fourth game all season at the Hynes Athletic Center for the Gaels, who have yet to win any of the previous three tries! As a result, it’s a 3-8 SU overall record and they’re 1-9 against the spread. After picking up a nice road win at Rider last Friday, the Gaels promptly dropped a one-point decision here to Niagara 70-69 as 8.5-point favorites. The fact they are favored again probably tells you all you need to know about the strength of the opponent, Fairfield, who is actually in off two straight wins. But those two wins came at home. While the Stags are 12-4 ATS overall and an unbelievable 9-1 ATS as underdogs, you have to think they’ve caught the eye of the oddsmakers and won’t be covering at that rate much longer. On the other hand, Iona is far too experienced a team to have these woes continue. Fairfield just played Wednesday when it knocked off St. Peters, whose leading scorer was held to only five points. Iona last played on Sunday so they are the “fresher” of the two teams and we’ll back them in this attractive spot. Play on IONA AAA | |||||||
01-16-20 | Elon v. Drexel -7 | Top | 41-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DREXEL Drexel has won three of four. They just prevailed at James Madison 78-71 as a 3.5-point underdog. Tonight they host an Elon team that is also coming off a win, but the difference there is that the Phoenix had lost six in a row prior to that win. The win came against probably the worst team in the CAA, UNC Wilmington. The past two years have not been kind to Elon when they are off a conference win. They are 3-10 SU and ATS in that role. It sure was nice for them that UNC Wilmington made only 28.8% of its shots on Saturday. Drexel has a 46.8 FG% at home. Elon has covered the spread in five of the last six games, but isn’t getting nearly enough points here. They are 0-8 SU on the road while shooting 37% in those games. Drexel is 18-3 SU the last 21 times it has been favored, 5-0 this year, and should cover this number with room to spare. Play on DREXEL AAA | |||||||
01-15-20 | Xavier +3.5 v. Marquette | Top | 65-85 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on XAVIER This has all the makings of a sharp, contrarian play as Marquette hosts Xavier on Wednesday. As of this morning, the short home favorite (Marquette) is getting the majority of bets, but the line is going the other way and that tells us that the larger bets are on the dog. Xavier has certainly had its issues covering the number this season (they are 4-12 ATS), but they’ve been a dog only three times. Their last two games, both of which were at home, saw them lose as favorites. Marquette has also lost its last two games and one of those was as a home favorite to Providence. Only 8-8 ATS on the year, we’re just not sure about the Golden Eagles being favored in this game. They are only 5-12 ATS their last 17 games against teams that have winning records. Xavier is 12-5 SU. For the record, the Musketeers are 9-3 ATS its last 12 games as an underdog, including 6-2 ATS when on the road. Play on XAVIER AAA | |||||||
01-14-20 | Richmond v. Davidson -4 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON The Atlantic 10 is not as strong as it’s been in the past. With the exception of Dayton, who looks like they’ll be running away with things, there’s no surefire bet to make the NCAA Tournament from this conference. That’s what makes tonight’s game between Richmond and Davidson so critical for the teams involved. There’s a void to be filled and if either of these teams can get hot, there’s a possibility they go dancing. You’ve probably noticed that the team with the 7-8 SU record is favored over the one that’s 12-4. While that’s partly due to home court advantage, the favoritism should also tell you all you need to know about Richmond’s record. The Spiders just lost at home by 16 points to St. Louis as 5.5-point favorites. There’s no sugarcoating what a bad loss that is. Davidson is off to its own disappointing start in conference play (1-2 SU/0-3 ATS), but did win Saturday against St. Joseph’s. The previous three games, all losses, were played on the road. The Wildcats have played only four home games so far, won them all, and averaged 88.7 points/game in them. Richmond’s leading scorer Blake Francis is listed as doubtful for this game due to a shoulder injury he sustained in the loss to St. Louis. That and the fact that Davidson is finally back home have us laying the points in this one. 10* DAVIDSON AAA | |||||||
01-13-20 | Portland State v. Montana -7 | Top | 70-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTANA This game finds both teams coming off upset wins. Portland State won at Montana State Saturday 77-76 as a 1.5-point underdog. Montana won 90-63 at Eastern Washington as a 5.5-point underdog. There are several reasons why the home team is the right choice in this situation. One, just look at those scores. Montana was far more impressive in its upset, winning by 27 as opposed to just a single point. Also, the Golden Grizzlies last played Thursday, so they’ve had more time to prepare for tonight’s game. They are also at home while Portland State is playing its fourth consecutive road game and second in three days. PSU gives up 76.5 points/game on the road. Montana allows 62.9 points/game at home. Lastly, this is a double revenge game for Montana. They lost twice to Portland State last season. Lay the points here. Play on MONTANA AAA | |||||||
01-12-20 | Siena +1.5 v. Manhattan | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SIENA The MAAC is looking pretty weak this year, so we’ll excuse you for not paying much attention to these teams. What you need to know about Siena is that they have been a totally different team at home than on the road. Thursday’s 61-58 win against St. Peters was the Saints seventh straight home victory. But it was also the fifth straight game they didn’t cover. Their road record is 0-6. So this game being at Manhattan might lead you to believe we’ll be backing the other side. But not so fast. Despite its struggles to cover the spread, Siena has won five of six. Yes, every win was at home. And the only road game resulted in an eight-point loss to Rider. But we don’t think Manhattan is in the same class as Siena. The Jaspers only average 61.7 points/game. They’ve actually been below that scoring average in five of the past seven games. Siena won here last season. They actually held Manhattan to an average of 44.5 points/game in a season sweep. Jaspers leading scorer Greene (12.1 points/game) is questionable for this game. Play on SIENA AAA | |||||||
01-11-20 | Wake Forest +19.5 v. Duke | Top | 59-90 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WAKE FOREST Most aren’t going to give Wake Forest much of a shot here. But Duke just played a tight game with Georgia Tech that was tied with 4 ½ minutes remaining. That should give the Demon Deacons some hope. Last year, it was a one-point game here in Durham with Wake Forest easily covering the 24 point spot. Hopefully, Chaundee Brown (who is Wake’s second leading scorer) will return for this game. But even if he doesn’t, his teammates will be set to compete. The Blue Devils players won’t be apt to take this one nearly as seriously so Wake should hang around throughout. Duke has only covered two of its last seven home games. Play on WAKE FOREST AAA | |||||||
01-11-20 | Washington -6 v. California | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Playing its first actual road game of the season, Washington lost Thursday at Stanford by a score of 61-55. Going in, we knew it would be a battle of strong defensive teams, but where Washington came up short was from behind the three-point line. They made only 3 of 17 while Stanford was 11 of 30. It was a game the Huskies led by eight going into halftime. They should have a much easier time finishing the job tonight against Pac 12 lightweight Cal. The Bears are off a rare conference win (just their 6th in 40 tries) but it was one where they were favored as they played Washington State here in Berkeley. As an underdog, the Bears are just 1-8 ATS this season. They are also 0 for their last 9 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. They’ve covered only twice in 10 tries against teams with winning record this year. This should be a get well game for UW, who should be sick of close games at this point. Over the last four games, they’ve lost three times by a total of 12 points. But the one win was by 32. This should be more in line with that result. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
01-10-20 | Ball State v. Akron -3 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AKRON We had to the MAC for some Friday night College Hoops as Akron hosts Ball State. In what looks to be a wide open conference race, these are going to be two of the likely contenders for regular season supremacy. Akron comes in sporting the better record at 12-3 and they’ve started the conference slate with two dominant wins. The Zips only losses were to Louisville, Liberty and West Virginia. Liberty was actually undefeated at the time while the other two are top 15 teams. Akron has been a dominant home team, winning all nine of its games here by an average of 20.3 points/game. They’ve gone 6-1 ATS as a favorite this year. We fail to understand why this number would be so low given Ball State is only 13-28 ATS its last 41 MAC games. Akron even has triple revenge as they are 0-3 straight up vs. the Cardinals the last two seasons (two of the losses in 2018). Play on AKRON AAA | |||||||
01-09-20 | Washington +2.5 v. Stanford | Top | 55-61 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON After losing two straight, Washington clearly wasn't fooling around Sunday night. They beat USC 72-40, holding the Trojans to 20 percent shooting for the game (yes, 20 percent!) in what was a complete annihilation. Before losses to UCLA and Houston, the Huskies were a top 25 team whose only losses had been to Tennessee and Gonzaga. We think that's important to remember when looking at their upcoming Pac 12 schedule. Thursday will be the first actual road game of the year as UW goes to Stanford. The Cardinal are 12-2 and also won their last game, although it took place back on Thursday. Rival Cal was no match here in Palo Alto with the Cardinal winning 68-52. But Washington is a different story. The Huskies swept last year's season series. They are a tall team with plenty of length and have better defensive numbers than Stanford. UW opponents are shooting just 40.2 percent on two-point shots this year. At the same time, the Huskies make 54.2% of their own two-point shots (26th in NCAA) and get to the FT line quite a bit. Stanford might be 12-2, but they don't really have much in the way of quality wins. We like the better team catching points. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
01-08-20 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +7 | Top | 78-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WAKE FOREST Florida State enters this game as a top 10 team in the country. They're 13-2 SU so far and have won six in a row since losing at Indiana back on December 3rd. On Saturday, they traveled to Louisville and upset the favored Cardinals 78-65 as 6-point underdogs. But the Seminoles have every right to be "wary" of Wake Forest tonight as the Demon Deacons pulled their own upset Saturday, winning at Pitt 68-65 as a 6.5-point underdog. Wake is plenty rested as that upset of Pitt is the only game that they have played the last 2 1/2 weeks. FSU is playing back to back road games for the first time since opening their season at Pitt and Florida. For what it's worth, the Noles did lose to the same Pitt team that WF just beat. That Pitt game was the only time previous to tonight that FSU has been favored on the road and they lost outright. Again, they also lost at Indiana. Wake Forest has already won four times as an underdog. They've covered five of the last seven times getting points. Seems like too many points for FSU to be laying here. Play on WAKE FOREST AAA | |||||||
01-08-20 | Northwestern v. Indiana -12.5 | Top | 62-66 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on INDIANA Indiana is coming off back to back losses, the latest being to #12 Maryland (no shame there) on what was a cold-shooting night for the Hoosiers. The other loss saw IU blow an 11-point second half lead to Arkansas, at home. Prior to those losses, Indiana was 11-1 and certainly worthy of Top 25 consideration. Tonight seems like an excellent chance to get back on track as they'll take on Northwestern at Assembly Hall in Bloomington. Northwestern is not one of the Big 10's stronger teams. In fact, they've lost four in a row and six out of the last eight. Sunday saw the Wildcats travel to Minnesota and take a 77-68 loss, leaving them as the only Big 10 team without a conference win. Only seven scholarship players suited up on Sunday because of injuries and that situation is no better for tonight. A lack of guards is a real issue for Northwestern right now. They are the lowest scoring team in the Big 10 and didn't even attempt a three-pointer until nearly midway through the second half vs. Minnesota. Indiana is 9-1 and averaging 84.5 points/game at home. Northwestern is just 7-18-1 ATS its last 26 games overall. Play on INDIANA AAA | |||||||
01-07-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +1.5 | Top | 61-72 | Win | 101 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on RUTGERS The Big 10 could very well put a record number of teams in the NCAA Tournament this year. It will be interesting to see how some of the teams hold up against what is going to be a brutal conference schedule. These are two teams I'm interested in. Penn State and Rutgers each come into Tuesday riding 5-game win streaks. Penn State has already beaten Maryland and Iowa. But those games were both played in Pennsylvania. So far the Nittany Lions have played just two actual road games. One saw them get destroyed by Ohio State, 106-74. Their only other defeat was by two against Ole Miss, in Brooklyn. But here they face a Rutgers team that is 10-0 at home including a win over Seton Hall. The Scarlet Knights allow less than 60 points/game and have won the rebounding battle in 13 of their 14 games played. Penn State has three wins this year by three points or less, so that record could easily be a little bit worse. Even with the injury to G Geo Baker, we don't agree with how the early line movement for this one. Play on RUTGERS AAA | |||||||
01-06-20 | Troy State +11.5 v. Texas State | Top | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TROY Troy (5-10) seemingly doesn't have much going for itself right now but this is a lot of points to be getting from a Texas State team that isn't exactly making a lot of noise. Texas State has been especially poor as a favorite this year, going 1-7 ATS. If that's not bad enough, the Bobcats haven't covered any of their last five lined games. Troy is 0-3 ATS its last three, but never were they getting close to double digits. There have only been two times the Trojans have been double digit dogs. Both were vs. power conference teams. They covered the last one, at Texas A&M, losing by just four. Texas State is 0 for 3 at the window when it has had to lay double digits. Most of their wins have been against either non Division I teams or bottom of the barrel D-I teams. It was just a three-point win over Arkansas State Saturday. Play on TROY AAA | |||||||
01-05-20 | Davidson +3.5 v. Duquesne | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON Duquesne started the season 10-0, which was definitely a surprise. But the key is they really haven't played anybody. After suffering two straight defeats, the Dukes won their conference opener by beating a poor St. Louis team 73-59. They hope that stems the tide, but we don't see them beating Davidson, who will be playing its first A-10 game on Sunday. The Wildcats had won three in a row by virtue of some solid defense, but then ran into Vanderbilt right before the New Year and lost 76-71 in Nashville as a 1-point underdog. That leaves them at 6-6 SU overall with all but three of the games played away from home. While the overall record isn't as good as they'd hoped for, Davidson is definitely battle-tested going into conference play. They've gone 7-0 SU vs. Duquesne and 6-1 ATS, the lone non-cover coming last year. But a big key coming into today is that Davidson has been the dog in only one of those prior seven meetings. We believe the better team is getting points Sunday. The Wildcats have gone 31-10 SU and 26-15 ATS vs. the rest of the Atlantic 10 the past two seasons. Play on DAVIDSON AAA | |||||||
01-04-20 | Texas +9 v. Baylor | Top | 44-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Baylor is a Top 10 team in the country right now (#6) with a 10-1 straight up record. This is the Big 10 opener as they face Texas, who is a solid 10-2 SU, but unranked. This is actually the best start to a season that the Longhorns have had under Shaka Smart. They are coming off their most dominant performance yet, registering season-highs in points, field goals made, field goal percentage, blocked shots and margin of victory in a 89-58 demolition of High Point. It's no debate that tonight's game is going to be much tougher as Baylor has won nine in a row, including three wins over ranked teams. The Bears last game was pretty similar to Texas' as they won 83-57 against Jackson State. But they're 1-5 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less the previous game. Texas is 12-4 ATS in the month of January the last two years. The last four head to head meetings have seen the 'Horns either win or lose by single digits. Two of the losses were by just one point. Texas allows a pretty similar number of points per game compared to Baylor. Take the points. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
01-02-20 | California +11 v. Stanford | Top | 52-68 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAL A little over a month ago, California's football team snapped its 10-year losing streak to rival Stanford, winning "The Big Game" 24-20. Now let's see what Bears basketball can do. They're going to Palo Alto in the midst of a severe ATS drought. They've covered only once in the last 10 games. But they've faced a number of good teams during that stretch. Stanford is 11-2 and probably feeling pretty good about itself, but that makes them ripe for the picking in our eyes. Their last game, played Sunday, was a home loss to Kansas. No shame there, but losing by 16 was a real "downer" and could effect them moving forward. We think that the Cardinal pretty clearly overachieved in its non-conference portion of the schedule. They were picked to finish 10th in the Pac 12 this year. It's not often they have to lay double digits. Cal has actually won its last two games here at Maples Pavilion. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA | |||||||
01-01-20 | New Mexico v. San Jose State +10.5 | Top | 85-88 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on San Jose State San Jose State upset New Mexico last year here at home, winning 89-82 as a 10.5-point underdog. Seeing as New Mexico just got hit with a couple suspensions, we think the Spartans are capable of pulling another upset this year. Both suspended Lobos were starters - forward Carlton Bragg and point guard JJ Caldwell. Obviously, those are big losses for a team that is 12-2 and undefeated at home. Bragg was a team captain and Caldwell was leading the Mountain West Conference in assists. The Lobos have played two games without the pair and are 0-2 ATS. Defensively, they struggled against Houston Baptist and then it was just a five-point win over UC Davis. This is the first road game since the suspensions were handed down. Two of three road games New Mexico has played this year were decided by a combined four points. SJSU had lost eight in a row before playing Pepperdine on Saturday, but won that game outright as a 10-point home underdog, 83-68. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA | |||||||
12-31-19 | Rider v. Wisconsin -13 | Top | 37-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN Maybe it's risky to be betting on the Badgers on New Year's Eve after they pulled a big upset at Tennessee over the weekend. They didn't just upset the Vols either. It was a total blowout with the Badgers winning 68-48 as four-point pups. Congrats to them. They've got a big game upcoming against Ohio State (Friday) as well. But on New Year's Eve, they'll host Rider in the final non-conference game of the season. The Broncs had a five-game win streak snapped at Temple 10 days ago and haven't played since. But they've overmatched here, no matter which way you look at it. Their last three road games have all ended up as double digit losses. That's what we're expecting here. The Badgers haven't lost in Madison and are scoring 80 points/game at the Kohl Center. Play on WISCONSIN AAA | |||||||
12-30-19 | Tulane v. Memphis -15 | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS Despite getting only three games from James Wiseman, Memphis has looked great this year in rising to #9 in the polls. The Tigers have won nine in a row since their only loss (Oregon) and are coming off two straight blowouts of overmatched teams. Saturday saw them win 97-55 against New Orleans despite committing 27 turnovers. Defense though bailed them out. Tigers opponents are making just 38.8% of two-point attempts, which is the second lowest percentage in the country. From three, opponents are making just 26.5%, which is inside the top 10. Memphis does a great job at turning opponents over as well while playing at a fast tempo. Here they take on a Tulane team that is coming off two straight losses that were by a combined five points. Those losses occurred in D.C. as part of a Holiday Tournament. Not even an eight-day break will be enough to save the Green Wave though. We think this should be an easy 20+ point win for Memphis, who has covered six of the last seven times as a home favorite of at least 12.5 points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
12-30-19 | Green Bay v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 73-59 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTHERN KENTUCKY The Horizon League has fallen substantially since the days when Butler proudly carried its banner. As conference play begins, you should consider Wright State and Northern Kentucky to be the two favorites. We like one of those two night as Northern Kentucky hosts Green Bay. The Norse are 9-4 and coming off a 10-pt win over Milwaukee in the conference opener. That was Saturday at home. Holding their opponents to 2 of 17 shooting from three-point range was big as was the 31 points from Tyler Sharpe. With the exception of its loss at UNC Greensboro (a good team) right before Christmas, the Northern Kentucky offense has been very consistent. Look for a big offensive night this evening as Green Bay is giving up over 86 points/game on the road. This will be the third straight roadie for the Phoenix, who have lost five of seven overall. After the New Year, they'll be happy to play five straight games at home. But for now, this is the end of a very brutal stretch that saw them open on the road against the HL's two best teams (lost by 6 at Wright St Saturday) and out of nine total games played in the last month, this will be the 7th away from home. Play on NORTHERN KENTUCKY AAA | |||||||
12-28-19 | Northern Arizona +7.5 v. Montana | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTHERN ARIZONA Northern Arizona has been a bit of a hidden gem this College Basketball season. The Lumberjacks are 4-0 ATS their last four games, winning three of them outright and only losing by two in the other. They were underdogs in all four games, just as they are tonight for the Big Sky Conference opener against Montana. NAU has actually been favored in only one game all season and ironically they lost it, 85-66 to UC Davis. The last loss was to Pepperdine, but that was by just two points. The only other loss was to Arizona in the very first game of the season. This will be NAU's fourth straight time playing on the road, but having had a week in between games, that's not a huge deal. Montana isn't exactly in peak form right now as they've lost two straight and three of four. All losses were on the road, but we still don't think the Grizzlies should be laying so many points against a dangerous dog in the first conference game. Northern Arizona has covered its last two trips to Missoula. Play on NORTHERN ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-28-19 | Louisville v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY Kentucky comes in having lost its last two games. Those losses were to Utah and Ohio State, both out in Las Vegas. Both were also decided by six points or less. Before that, UK had lost only once all year. It was here at Rupp Arena (to Evansville!), but again it was a close game. So we're dealing with a team whose three losses have been by a total of 12 points. Now they return home to face rival Louisville. This will be the first true road game for the Cardinals, whose only loss was to Texas Tech, 70-57 at Madison Square Garden. So UK's three losses have come by a smaller margin than Louisville's one. While Louisville did beat Michigan, their list of opponents has not been as strong as Kentucky's. UK beat Michigan State in the season opener. This rivalry has belonged to the boys in blue over the last decade as the Wildcats are 9-1 ATS the last 10 meetings. They won by 13 last year and by 29 here in Lexington the year before that. Home court matters for a desperate Coach John Calipari. Play on KENTUCKY AAA | |||||||
12-22-19 | Davidson +3 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 59-56 | Win | 102 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON Most are quite familiar with these two mid-major programs. Davidson's most famous alum is former NBA MVP Steph Curry, who led the school on a magical run to the Elite Eight his senior year here. Loyola Chicago, backed by #1 fan Sister Jean, made it one step further - all the way to the Final Four - a few years ago. This year's editions aren't as good as those past teams, but they meet Sunday in Chicago. We feel Davidson is the better team. Yes, the Wildcats have lost five times, but most of those came to really good opponents. Loyola has won five in a row, but their "best" win was either Old Dominion or Ball State. Also, Davidson has been off for exams since December 10th, so they'll come in well rested. Loyola has played twice in the last week, including a neutral site win over Vanderbilt. This is the Ramblers longest win streak since the Final Four team. Davidson won 88-52 in its last game, so they can score. Play on DAVIDSON AAA | |||||||
12-21-19 | Northern Kentucky v. NC-Greensboro -7 | Top | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC Greensboro As a five-point underdog, UNC Greensboro just recorded a nice 55-54 win up in Vermont. As you can tell from that score, the Spartans did an excellent job defensively, holding the Catamounts to 21.4% from three-point land. It wasn't exactly a banner shooting night for UNC Greensboro themselves, but they'll take the quality road win. Tonight the return home to face a Northern Kentucky team that comes in on a bit of a roll. The Norse have won three in a row and covered four straight. They have some road wins to their credit, but they haven't scored much in those games and the defensive effort we saw from UNC Greensboro against Vermont was definitely not a "one-time thing." They are allowing just 56.8 points per game for the season. That's top 10 in the country. The Spartans have also won 37 of their last 42 home games. Play on UNC Greensboro AAA | |||||||
12-20-19 | James Madison v. Fordham -3 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FORDHAM Fordham is currently on a streak the likes of which you rarely see. The Rams have lost their last three games, all at home and all as favorites. Those losses were to Manhattan, Bryant and Tennessee State. The good news, if there is one, is that every game was close. All three losses were by eight points or less and by a total of 14 points. One was an overtime game. Two saw them blow halftime leads. So it's not as if the Rams are being blown out. Tonight they try again as home favorites, this time against James Madison. The Dukes won big on Monday, beating Charleston Southern by 21. But that was at home. Three of their four road games have resulted in double digit losses while the one win (over Old Dominion) was by two points as an 11-point underdog. Can't see Fordham losing a fourth straight game as a home favorite and with the number being so small, we'll lay it. Play on Fordham AAA | |||||||
12-19-19 | UTEP v. Houston -10 | Top | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston comes into this all-Texas matchup way undervalued as we had the spread several points higher. Some have already caught onto this as the Cougars have been bet up a bit this morning. But it's still not enough for UTEP to finish in the money Thursday. UTEP may be 8-1 straight up, but they haven't really played anybody (that's good) and they've left El Paso just one time. That one time just so happened to result in the Miners only defeat, which came at the hands of New Mexico State. It's a big step up in class tonight facing Houston, who is in an angry mood after losing to Oklahoma State on Sunday. The Cougars were seven-point favorites, but they went down 61-55 on a poor shooting night (31.1 FG%). Prior to that, their only two losses were to Oregon (top 10 team) and by 1 to BYU. We view this team as being a bit of a "sleeping giant" right now and UTEP is coming to town at the wrong time. At home, Houston is holding opponents to a 35.0 field goal percentage. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
12-18-19 | Illinois-Chicago v. Illinois State -5.5 | Top | 66-67 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS STATE Each team is coming off a double-digit loss. UIC got beat by 21 at DePaul, snapping what had been a three-game ATS win streak. The Flames are now 4-7 and find themselves playing back to back true road games for the first time. It's not a long trip to face Illinois State, who is 4-6 after taking a 15-point loss down at Northern Kentucky on Sunday. What we are leaning on for this one is the home team's defense. The Redbirds give up only 63.2 points/game at home. UIC is giving up 79.4 points/game on the road. With this game taking place in Normal, we don't think Illinois State is favored by nearly enough. Certainly, they remember getting blown out by UIC 94-75 last season. Before that, it had been Illinois State winning the last seven matchups. This spread just seems too low for a game the home team should win pretty comfortably. Play on ILLINOIS STATE AAA | |||||||
12-18-19 | East Tennessee State +10.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EAST TENNESSEE STATE East Tennessee State has lost just two times this year. One was to Kansas where they stayed inside 15-point spread. The other was an upset loss at North Dakota State 11 days ago. Having already successfully bounced back from that second defeat (easily beat Milligan College 97-41), the Buccaneers now set their sights on LSU, their first Power 5 opponent since the Kansas game. LSU has also lost just twice and both were by just two points. The Tigers have been rolling of late, winning and covering four straight. During that win streak, they've shot the ball ridiculously well as in over 54%! Don't look for that percentage to hold up tonight against the toughest team they've faced in awhile. East Tennessee State is a legit team and getting points for only the second time all year. They are 19-8 ATS in non-conference games while LSU is 10-25 ATS the last 35 times it has been a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Play on EAST TENNESSEE STATE AAA | |||||||
12-17-19 | Miami-FL v. Temple -1.5 | Top | 78-77 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEMPLE This game is part of the Hall of Fame Invitational at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Miami enters on a two-game win streak, but there are some real underlying defensive issues with this Hurricanes team as it has given up an average of 76.2 points in last five games with the last four opponents combining to shoot better than 52% overall. That's bad news when getting set to face a Temple team that just hung 108 points on St. Joe's a week ago. The Owls are well rested as that St. Joe's game took place seven days ago. Miami played Saturday. While it was only a home game vs. Alabama A&M, they still gave up 74 points on 51.7% shooting. The Canes last two neutral site games both resulted in blowout losses, by a combined 45 points, to Florida and UConn. Temple's two losses this year were each a result of poor shooting nights, but that's not going to be the case here. They shot 62.7% against St. Joe's. Miami is 3-11 ATS its last 14 neutral site games. Play on TEMPLE AAA | |||||||
12-16-19 | Loyola Marymount v. UC-Davis | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOYOLA MARYMOUNT Loyola Marymount is looking to win for a third straight time tonight. To do so, they'll have to make the short trip over to UC Davis. The home team has covered five in a row, but all of those ATS wins came as underdogs of at least 3.5 points. They were getting at least six points in four of the games. Tonight the oddsmakers generosity isn't there for the Aggies, who did not fare well against Loyola Marymount last season when they lost to them by 18 on the road. They were eight-point underdogs for that matchup. Loyola Marymount has lost both of its road games so far, but this is a weaker opponent than either Nevada or Colorado. In home games where the spread is three points or less, UC Davis is 1-6 straight up and against the spread. LMU is shooting the basketball very well (51.5 FG%), which is more than we can say for UC Davis, who is at just 45.2%. Lions roar in this one. Play on LOYOLA MARYMOUNT AAA | |||||||
12-15-19 | Samford v. Hawaii -6 | Top | 73-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII Samford makes the long trip out to Honolulu Sunday night. The Bulldogs just won on the road, 112-90 at Houston Baptist last Saturday. But prior to that, they'd been 0-5 in road games with a couple of losses by more than 20 points. Samford can score, but not surprisingly they don't shoot nearly as well when they're the road team. That's a problem when you're giving up 83.3 points/game (on the road). Hawaii figures to be in a foul mood this evening as it is coming off a 25-point loss at Oregon. That was just the third loss overall for the Warriors, two of them on the road to P5 teams. They are 6-1 at home. This result likely boils down to who's senior guard performs better tonight - Josh Sharkey for Samford or Eddie Stansberry for Hawaii. In the end, we like how Hawaii has been shooting the three-ball recently (averaging 9.3 makes L3 games). For the year, they are second among Big West teams in three-pointers made. Play on HAWAII AAA | |||||||
12-14-19 | Northern Arizona +7.5 v. Utah Valley | Top | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTHERN ARIZONA Northern Arizona has played what we'd call a "light schedule" so far. The Lumberjacks have taken the floor only six times, which is tied for the second fewest in the whole country. Only Iona (5) has played fewer games. Yet NAU still has the same number of wins (4) as their opponent for Saturday (Utah Valley St). The difference is UVSU has lost seven times, more than the total number of games played for NAU! We've got the teams rated pretty evenly, so the chance to grab this many points looks to be a steal. Utah Valley State has lost four in a row and six of seven. The only win came when they were an underdog. So laying points isn't a great option for the Wolverines. Wouldn't you know they are not only 0-4 ATS as favorites this year, every one of those games have resulted in a straight up defeat. Gotta take the points here. Play on NORTHERN ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-14-19 | Middle Tennessee +17 v. Ole Miss | Top | 64-82 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee probably isn't going to be able to get a win here, but they'll take a cover as they come into this game at 0-6 ATS. The Blue Raiders have played 10 games mind you, but four were not lined. As you might expect, those have been the Blue Raiders best performances. They haven't won any of the six lined contests, but tonight marks just the second time they'll be catching double digits. The first was against Villanova, who is a heck of a lot better than Ole Miss. Prior to last Saturday's 83-67 win over Cal State Bakersfield, the Rebels had looked downright dreadful in a pair of losses to Butler and Oklahoma State. They scored just 37 points vs. OSU and I don't see this being a game where the favorite is going to give a solid 40 minutes. Too many points for a team not rated in the Top 50 to be laying here. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
12-13-19 | Colorado -5 v. Colorado State | Top | 56-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado State losing by 22 at home to San Diego State last week sets the precedent for them not doing well tonight. The Rams looked badly outclassed in that game. That shouldn't have been too surprising considering SDSU is one of the five teams in the country still without a loss. That tidbit is relevant today because it wasn't all that long ago that Colorado was still undefeated. As in this time last week. We called for them to suffer their first defeat of the season last Saturday at Kansas, which they did, and just as we predicted they did not cover the spread either (lost 72-58). The Buffaloes then lost again Tuesday, to a good Northern Iowa team (10-1), a game which they were 9.5-point favorites. After failing to cover in six straight, this is where Colorado gets its mojo back. This is still a ranked team (#24). They were a 13.5-point favorite in this game last year when it was played in Boulder. They might be a better team in 2019. They've already won at Arizona State, so I'm not concerned with Colorado winning on the road. Play COLORADO AAA | |||||||
12-12-19 | Austin Peay v. West Virginia -16 | Top | 53-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WEST VIRGINIA Look for West Virginia to bounce back from its first loss of the season. They are facing an overmatched Austin Peay team tonight in Morgantown. Saturday they went to St. John’s and lost 70-68 as a four-point favorite. They did the job defensively, holding the Red Storm to 32.7 percent shooting, including 2 of 17 from three-point range. But that effort was undermined by too many turnovers and getting outshot at the free throw line (were -15 in attempts). In a two-point game, that’ll cost you. Austin Peay is 0-4 on the road, losing by an average of 13.8 points per game. The teams the Governors have beaten this year are not anywhere near the same class as WVU. Even in a win over North Florida on Saturday, they struggled defensively by giving up 83 points. Look for the Mountaineers to be more careful with the basketball tonight and they’ll have the free throw edge at home. Play on WEST VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
12-11-19 | Yale v. Massachusetts +4.5 | Top | 83-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UMass Massachusetts season started well enough. The Minutemen were a perfect 5-0 going into the Hall of Fame Classic in Connecticut. They lost both games that weekend and haven't recovered since. It's now a five-game losing streak after getting blown out by Harvard this past weekend. They haven't covered in four games. But just one of those five losses was at home and that was by just four points to South Carolina. Poor shooting has doomed the Minutemen during this five-game losing streak and at the same time they've given up at least 80 points in three straight. Yale, who has won five in a row straight up and covered its last eight, comes to Amherst tonight. While this looks like two ships sailing in opposite directions, we're not about to discount the benefits of home court advantage. Yale is playing its third straight road game. This is the most points UMass has gotten for any home game yet. Take the points. Play on UMass AAA | |||||||
12-10-19 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Kansas -26 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS Kansas' season started with a 68-66 loss to Duke. Since then, the Jayhawks have looked as good as any team in the country. They've won seven in a row, six of those wins coming by at least 12 points. We used them as our Game of the Week on Saturday as they ended Colorado's unbeaten run with a resounding 72-58 victory. Tonight promises to be among the Jayhawks easiest games to date as they'll be hosting Wisconsin-Milwaukee. While all four of their losses have been by six points or less, the Panthers haven't played anybody close to the caliber of Kansas. Their most recent game was a 56-53 loss at Drake, which took place exactly one week ago. Despite having a week off, the spot is still not great for the underdog here. Before Drake, which was their first real road game, they'd played three games in three days in the Bahamas. The offensive numbers in those last four games aren't very good, which is a concern facing a Kansas team that has held its opponents to 37.7% shooting. The Jayhawks are already winning by an average of 17.7 points/game and this should be their easiest game since facing Chaminade. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
12-07-19 | Colorado v. Kansas -9.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS We're down to 16 teams that have yet to taste defeat this College Basketball season. One of them is involved here and surprisingly it is not Kansas. Colorado has begun 7-0, but of the 10 unbeatens in action today they are one of just two getting points (Arizona @ Baylor is the other). Certainly, it would appear as if this is the time for the Buffaloes to lose for the first time. The only question is: can Kansas cover the spread? We think so. The Jayhawks have been off since the night before Thanksgiving when they rallied to defeat Dayton in overtime to win the Maui Invitational. Returning to Lawrence - where they have not played since November 19th - should be a big boon. Colorado is just 7-19 SU, 7-18-1 ATS its last 26 road games and this figures to be among the most challenging of all of them. This is their first road game this year. The Buffaloes needed a late 15-1 run to beat back Loyola Marymount Wednesday. They seem ripe for the picking here. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
12-04-19 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNC Don't look now but Ohio State is #6 in the country ... in basketball! But the unbeaten Buckeyes will face by far their toughest test of the season tonight when they visit #7 North Carolina. This is Ohio State's first road game. North Carolina finished third in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. Friday's 78-74 win over Oregon (a Top 25 team) ended what was an 0-5 ATS streak. The Tar Heels only loss this year was to Michigan in that same Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. There's no shame in that. Ohio State has covered five in a row. But they are 0-5 ATS all-time vs. UNC. Needless to say, we're going to learn just how good this team is tonight. Our view is that the Buckeyes could be at their "peak" right now and it's a good time to sell on them. This will be their biggest test defensively and while UNC has underperformed offensively (by its standard), they've still scored 75 points in every game besides the loss to Michigan. We can't see OSU going to Chapel Hill and winning. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
12-03-19 | UTEP v. New Mexico State -4.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW MEXICO STATE This is actually an early season rematch. UTEP won the first game, 65-50 as 2.5-point underdogs. But that was in El Paso. Tonight's visit to Las Cruces marks the first time the Miners have to hit the road this season. UTEP is undefeated (5-0), but has hardly faced the stiffest competition. Three of their wins have come against non-board teams. They beat New Mexico by three. The win over NMSU, which was the second game of the season, was the most impressive so far. But it speaks volumes that they are still underdogs to a 4-4 team they've already beaten. New Mexico State should be plenty motivated tonight. Not just because they are taking the court with revenge, but also because they were upset by George Mason in their last game. As a 5.5-point favorite, they lost 68-64. That game took place out on the Cayman Islands and saw NMSU blow a 12-point halftime advantage. There are several reasons the Aggies lost that first game vs. UTEP. One was they missed 9 of 11 free throw attempts. It was an all-around bad shooting night at 36.8% from the floor. That shouldn't be the case tonight at home. This Aggies team could easily be 6-2 right now and should get its revenge. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE AAA | |||||||
11-30-19 | Youngstown State v. Central Michigan -6.5 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CENTRAL MICHIGAN As a double digit dog, Central Michigan was up 50-32 at halftime on undefeated DePaul Tuesday. Not only did the Chippewas end up not winning, they also failed to cover! A disastrous second half yielded a final score of 88-75. They were getting 11 from the oddsmakers. CMU will need to "dust itself off" as they are back home Saturday to take on Youngstown State. This is a team they defeated last year, on the road, 100-94. They were 8-point favorites, meaning that they didn't cover there either. But it also means we're getting some good value. Here, the Chippewas are favored by less at home than they were last year on the road. Unless there's been some substantial improvement with YSU that we're unaware of, then this line makes no sense. The Penguins have played only one team of any real note, that being Louisville. They lost by 33 points. They've also lost by 22 to Akron and 12 to Louisiana. Both of those were road games. Central Michigan's schedule hasn't been all that impressive either, but they are among the highest scoring teams in the country at 96.1 points/game. Coming off the disappointing loss, we're looking for them to win in blowout fashion here. Play on CENTRAL MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
11-29-19 | DePaul v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA DePaul pulled off a miracle on Tuesday. Trailing 50-32 at halftime vs. Central Michigan, they rallied not just to win, but to cover as 12-point favorites. The final score was 88-75. The Blue Demons are now 7-0, but are underdogs Friday to a 3-3 Minnesota team. For good reason. Not just is the game on the road, but one of their top rotation players (Devin Gage) is nursing an ankle injury. Only six players saw the floor for more than 10 minutes against Central Michigan. DePaul's defense was also very bad in the 1st half of that last game. They were slow to rotate, constantly falling for pump-fakes and had allowed 50 points by halftime. It was a complete turnaround in the 2nd half, but that's a game they were lucky to win, let alone cover. They were basically down for the first 30 minutes of the game. Minnesota has three losses, but two were on the road and the other to a pretty good Oklahoma team. The Golden Gophers beat Central Michigan in much more convincing fashion last week, winning by 25. All three times Minnesota has been favored, they have covered the spread. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
11-27-19 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -6 | Top | 78-81 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE Unlike many of the games on the Wednesday slate, this is not a Holiday Tournament. Georgia State welcomes Charlotte to Atlanta with both teams looking to get over .500 for the year. Georgia State is 3-3 while Charlotte is 2-2. Georgia State is a perfect 5-0 ATS, including a cover against Duke. The Panthers will be happy to be back home where they've only gotten to play once so far. That one time was the first game of the season where they blew out Brewton-Parker 104-35. Charlotte lost its last game, 64-55 to Appalachian State. That game took place last Thursday. The 49ers were coming off two straight upsets, one over Davidson and the other over Wake Forest. Both were at home. The last game was a reality check for Charlotte as they were held to 55 points on 36.7% shooting. Can't see them pulling off a third upset in four games here. Georgia State, who has scored 80 points in four of its six games, is going to be extra motivated upon this return home. Charlotte is 0-2 on the road. An afternoon start time is an advantage for the home side. Play on GEORGIA STATE AAA | |||||||
11-26-19 | Mercer v. St Bonaventure -6 | Top | 51-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. BONAVENTURE What makes this an interesting matchup is that the underdog is off an upset win while the favorite lost in that same role its last game. We'll use this backdrop and take what the undervalued side on Tuesday, which is the chalk. St. Bonaventure is only 1-4 after losing at Canisius on Saturday. The Bonnies were five-point favorites there and lost 61-57. It was not a good shooting night nor did they do an effective job at rebounding. But before losing to Canisius, the Bonnies did win as underdogs over Rutgers at a neutral site. The problem for this team so far is that they have lost straight all three times they've been favored! The third time may not have been the charm agains Canisius, but we believe the fourth will tonight vs. Mercer. The underdog Bears had not covered the first two times they were underdogs this season, but then sprung a surprise on IL-Chicago Saturday, winning that game 72-68 as 4.5-point dogs. Mercer gives up a lot of points. An average of 80.2 per game to be exact. St. Bonaventure is allowing just 67.8. The favorite is hungry for a win at home where they are 0-2. Bonnies get the win and cover. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE AAA | |||||||
11-25-19 | Tennessee State +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TN STATE San Diego State is 4-0 against the spread in addition to being undefeated, so it's no wonder that they are such large favorites Monday night. But the Tennessee State team that are hosting just hung tough with #12 Texas Tech and won't be intimidated in the least. That game at Texas Tech saw Tennessee State lost by only 15 as a 24.5 point underdog. With that cover, the Tigers move to 20-6 ATS the last 26 times they have been a road underdog of 18.5 to 24.5 points. San Diego State's last game against Long Island was not lined. But the Aztecs won by 17. The only game that's been closer for them was the 76-71 upset at BYU where they were a 4-point underdog. Yet consistently winning by double digits is hard in this sport. Tennessee State's only loss besides the one to Texas Tech was by 2 points at UT-Chattanooga. They trailed Texas Tech by only five at halftime. Look for the underdog to stay within the number here. Play on TENNESSEE STATE AAA | |||||||
11-23-19 | DePaul v. Boston College +2 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOSTON COLLEGE The list of unbeaten teams left in College Basketball has dwindled down to 53. Of those 53, only 22 have managed to get to 5-0. One of the bigger surprises on the list in DePaul. We believe the Blue Demons are set to experience their first loss. They lost to Boston College last year 65-62 as a 4.5-point home favorite. DePaul's most impressive win was their only previous road game, an upset of Iowa as 9.5 point underdogs. The Blue Demons shot an outrageous 61% that day. Really, they've been shooting the lights out all year. But eventually that's going to stop. Facing a B.C. team that has held its first five opponents to below 40% shooting seems like the logical time. Boston College also has an upset win on the road, theirs at the expense of South Florida where they were +6.5. The Eagles only loss was here at home to Belmont, 100-85, a game where they were actually a slight dog. They bounced back from that with a 72-68 win over Eastern Washington Wednesday night.While DePaul hasn't played in a week, they're bound to lose. The week off also may leave them rusty. They are 3-7 ATS the L10 times they've played with three or more days rest. B.C. already has beaten not just USF but also Wake Forest. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA | |||||||
11-22-19 | Western Michigan +18.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN There are 53 College Basketball teams still without a loss. Of the 53, there are 45 at 4-0 or better. One of them is Oklahoma State, who is in action tonight and laying a big number against Western Michigan. This will be the biggest number the Cowboys have had to lay this season and they're facing a team that's lost only one time in five tries. OSU has had two close calls so far. They won by just five points against Oral Roberts and by only seven against Yale, the latter win coming earlier this week. The other two games were comfortable victories over Missouri-KC and College of Charleston, though it should be pointed out the final margins of victory (18 and 19 points) were pretty close to what they are laying tonight.Western Michigan didn't fare too well in its only other game against a Power Conference foe. They lost by 27 at Ole Miss, but count on them playing better here. The Broncos shot just 33.9 percent down in Oxford while missing 27 of 32 three-point attempts. They are better than that offensively. They've scored at least 75 in every other game.The fact OSU has not won a game by more than 19 points should automatically make you hesitant to lay this number. This is a team that finished last season at 12-20 and isn't going to score many points on a regular basis. We'll take the points. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
11-20-19 | Portland v. Portland State -6 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND STATE This battle for Portland supremacy finds the home team undervalued. This is likely due to the visitor's 3-0 ATS record that includes two covers as an underdog. Host Portland State just played a couple of tough road games. They were underdogs at Indiana and Hawaii and lost both. But a return home should be what the doctor ordered. The Vikings have won this matchup two years in a row including 87-78 last year as a 6.5-point favorite. Portland's two previous road trips were to USC and San Jose State. They upset the latter. Saturday saw them beat Maine 71-62 as a 7.5-point favorite. Despite having superior defensive numbers compared to tonight's opponent, that is a bit misleading. It's owed to holding Wilmette College to 19.7% in the first game. Prior to the upset of San Jose State, the Pilots had lost 22 of 25 road games. Portland State is 21-9 straight up its last 30 home games including 5-0 when favored in the range of -6.5 to -9. Play on PORTLAND STATE AAA | |||||||
11-19-19 | Montana State +6 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MONTANA STATE Montana State has covered all of its games this year while Grand Canyon hasn't covered any. That makes this line pretty strange. We're not saying the home team shouldn't be favored, but giving this many points is a definite reach in our estimation. Montana State (4-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been winning games close and in low-scoring fashion, but that still makes them a dangerous dog. Their only loss was by eight to a Utah State team that is now ranked 14th the country. Since that loss, the Bobcats have given up an average of 55.2 points/game. Their last win was against Tennessee Tech and they allowed only 39 points! Needless to say, if this string of impressive defensive efforts continues tonight, it'll mean an easy cover and they'll probably take the game outright. Grand Canyon is 1-3 and has lost to a Division II team (Davenport University) here at home. They just won for the first time this season, beating Arkansas Pine-Bluff 67-54, but they were favored by 15.5 points. Not a good start for the Antelopes. An area where they are really struggling is behind the three-point arc. There they are shooting just 25.0% in four games. That's trouble seeing how well Montana State has defended so far. The Bobcats have allowed just 25% three-point shooting. Bad line set by the oddsmakers in this one. Play on MONTANA STATE AAA | |||||||
11-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 45-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA STATE Iowa State hasn't had the easiest start to the year as they've already lost once (at Oregon State), but tonight vs. Southern Miss should be a blowout. The Cyclones last played one week ago today when they beat Northern Illinois 70-52 as a 14-point favorite. That was here in Ames as well. Southern Miss has lost two in a row, both close games on the road. They lost six to South Alabama and then by three to North Florida. While the Golden Eagles still covered the spread each time, tonight is a third straight road game and their toughest opponent to date. This hardly seems like a good spot for them. The Cyclones actually trailed Northern Illinois at halftime last Tuesday. But that was due to some truly awful three-point shooting and a lack of rebounding. Both issues were quickly rectified in the second half when they outscored their opponents 39-18. We look for more of a "full game effort" tonight. ISU may be a young team, but they aren't turning the ball over much. Only 12.5% of their offensive possessions have ended in a turnover. That's 7th best in the country. Meanwhile, 22.5% of Southern Miss possessions end in a turnover. That's a bad number. Don't look for Iowa State to shoot 12.5% from three-point range again like they did in the last game. They should win quite comfortably tonight. Play on IOWA STATE AAA | |||||||
11-18-19 | Southern Utah v. UCLA -10.5 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA Southern Utah already notched one upset this year, that being a 79-78 double overtime win at Nebraska. The Thunderbirds followed that up with a cover in BYU as they lost by only five points as a double digit dog. That was their 10th straight ATS win in the month of November going back two years. That streak ends tonight. The upset of Nebraska saw Southern Utah come back from a rather sizable deficit in the second half. They relied on some terrible shooting by the Cornhuskers to win that game. But it was their own poor shooting that cost them against BYU. The Thunderbirds missed all 12 three-point attempts they took in Provo. This will be Southern Utah's third straight road game and the tank could be closing in on empty. UCLA has yet to leave campus and has looked progressively better with each passing game. On Friday, they beat UNLV 71-54 as an eight-point favorite. The Bruins have a new head coach this year (Mick Cronin) and a new lease on life. They led by UNLV by 24 in the first half Friday. You knew Cronin would improve the defense here and UCLA has yet to allow more than 65 points. Play on UCLA AAA | |||||||
11-17-19 | CS-Northridge v. Richmond -14 | Top | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on RICHMOND Cal State Northridge is having a terrible start to the season. The Matadors are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The losses have gotten progressively uglier with the latest coming by 46 points against Auburn. They gave up 116 points in that one. So Richmond has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday. The Spiders are 2-0, though those two wins couldn't have been much closer. They beat St. Francis (PA) by two (100-98) and Vanderbilt by one (93-92). Both games went to overtime! The Spiders are going to have to score a lot to cover the spread this afternoon and we think they will. So far they have shot the ball very well. CS-Northridge plays little in the way of defense. CS-Northridge's opponents have shot 53.1% so far. At the same time, they haven't shot very well themselves. This is simply a bad basketball team. These teams have combined to go 0-6 ATS, but it's pretty obvious which is better. All five Richmond starters are averaging more than 10 points/game. Off two tough wins, this will be among the Spiders easiest games of the season. Play RICHMOND AAA | |||||||
11-16-19 | USC -2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC is 3-0 and looking good for coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have beaten each of their three opponents by at least 18 points. While this is the first road game of the season, they are favored to win in Reno and we like them to keep rolling. Nevada has already eaten a loss. It came in the first game (vs. Utah) where they were favored to win by four but fell 79-74. The Wolf Pack have since bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount and UT-Arlington. But both wins were close, coming by five and seven points respectively. One key area where USC will have the edge tonight is offensive rebounding. The Trojans have posted an off rebounding percentage of 40.5 so far. That ranks 21st in the country. Nevada's offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 ranks 283rd. Jalen Harris led Nevada with 24 points in the win Tuesday night over UT-Arlington. But he is still not 100% after missing most of the first two games with a foot injury. Against a team like USC, one of your best players not being completely healthy could be the difference. This is a revenge game for USC. They lost by 12 to Nevada last year at home. Poor three-point shooting is the reason they lost. But, as indicated by the pointspread, this year's squad is better. Play on USC AAA | |||||||
11-15-19 | California Baptist v. California -4.5 | Top | 62-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CALIFORNIA California went just 8-23 SU last season and finished last in the Pac 12 with a 3-15 conference record. But things are already looking much brighter in Berkeley this season. The Bears are off to a 2-0 start for new coach Mark Fox and now have an excellent shot at opening 3-0. On Tuesday, they were able to pick up an overtime win over UNLV. They won 79-75 as 3.5-point favorites. That was after we took them in the season opener when they delivered a "surprise" win over Pepperdine, 87-71 as two-point underdogs. As we stated before that Cal-Pepperdine game, the Bears were very likely to improve this season after "bottoming out" under former coach Wyking Jones. Matt Bradley looks like a superstar after scoring 48 points in the first two games. This team is so much better than it was the last two seasons. But the oddsmakers have not caught on yet. Cal Baptist has already played three times, winning twice. The loss came on Tuesday as they faced #25 Texas. The Lancers could score only 54 points against the Longhorns, a major change from the first two games when they scored 93 and 112 against lesser competition. CBU gets 42.9% of its total points from behind the three-point arc, which is a very high percentage. They likely won't be able to sustain that. The Lancers also don't play very good defense, ranking near the bottom of D-I in both block and steal rate. They covered against Texas because the Longhorns couldn't hit open threes. Won't be the case again here. Playing two straight on the road against big time teams is a little much for this underdog. Lay a number that's too short. Play on CALIFORNIA AAA | |||||||
11-13-19 | Green Bay +13.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 78-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Green Bay seems to be getting a lot of points for Wednesday's game against New Mexico. Though the Phoenix are 0-11 straight up as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, they have covered the spread in 9 of those 11 games. Look for them to make it 10 of 12 tonight. GB has already covered once as a big road underdog this year. It was the season opener at Purdue where they lost 79-57 as 23-point dogs. That's as close as it gets if you bet the Phoenix, but it still counts as a cover! Purdue, who was ranked #23 at the time, is obviously a better team than New Mexico. The fact that the Phoenix shot just 35% against Purdue and still picked up the ATS win probably bodes well for tonight. New Mexico isn't that strong defensively. After losing to Purdue, Green Bay bounced back with a 115-64 win over Wisconsin-Stout, a D-3 school. New Mexico has also played a game against a team from a lesser division (Eastern New Mexico) and then beat CS-Fullerton by 27 on Saturday. While the favorite is off a big win, we see the underdog keeping this game closer than expected. New Mexico probably isn't as good as they've looked on offense so far. "The Pit" is a tough venue to play at, but Green Bay has shown they can hang inside the number on the road as a big dog. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
11-13-19 | Quinnipiac v. Brown -6.5 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROWN It's nice to see Quinnipiac has decided to join the College Basketball season! Now that they're done polling (what the school is known for!), it's time to start playing some basketball games. Up first is a date with Ivy League school Brown. Brown already has two games under its belt, so they've had a chance to work the kinks out. The Bears are 2-0 as they've been favored by similar amounts against Bryant and Canisius. Those were two and seven points wins respectively, so they're ATS record is 0-1-1. This is one where we do see Brown covering. This being their 1st game of the season, Quinnipiac is a bit of a wild card. But we know what we're getting with Brown. They've held the first two opponents to 40.0% shooting. They've won a road game. The player to watch on Brown is Brandon Anderson. He has made 35.7% of his 3-point shots so far and has 55 points in two games. He scored a career-high 32 vs. Canisius. Last season saw Brown win 20 games and a win a postseason game (CBI). Both were firsts for the program, which is on the rise. Lay the points tonight. Play on BROWN AAA | |||||||
11-12-19 | Washington State +4.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE Washington State had a terrible 2018-19 season. The Cougars won only 11 games and finished second to last in the Pac 12. But we thought it was absurd they were laying such a short number against Seattle in the season opener. We made the Cougs our Game of the Month and sure enough they won 85-54. Tonight Wazzu hits the road and is an underdog to a West Coast Conference opponent. We feel they deserve to be favored over Santa Clara. This is a revenge game. Last year, the Cougars lost to the Broncos 79-71 as eight-point favorites, a game which was played in Spokane, WA (neutral site). Santa Clara couldn't miss in that game, making 58.5% of its shots including 9 of 20 three-pointers. Similarly strong shooting has the Broncos off to a 2-0 start this year with wins over UC Santa Cruz and Cal Poly. But let's see how they do in their first real test. Wazzu was a respectable 7-7 in non-conference games last year and this year's team is going to be much better. Meanwhile, Santa Clara hasn't been very good as a favorite the last couple years, going 7-11 ATS while suffering seven outright losses. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA | |||||||
11-12-19 | William & Mary +11 v. Wofford | Top | 80-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WILLIAM & MARY William & Mary and Wofford are each 2-0 to start the year. But we value William & Mary's start a little bit more as both of their wins came on the road. Wofford's two wins have both been at home. We'll take the points. William & Mary's season started with a 70-56 win over High Point. Wofford also has a win over High Point, theirs coming by a 28-point margin (89-61). Again though, W&M had to do it on the road. High Point is a pretty terrible team, but W&M winning as a 3.5-point dog at American University last Frday was a little more impressive. What the Tribe have done exceptionally well to this point is play defense. They've held the first two opponents to 34.9% shooting. That defense will be tested here by a Wofford team that's shooting 51.8% overall and 43.1% from three. But the Terriers are allowing the opposition to shoot well from distance as well. Erskine and High Point combined to make nearly 43% of their three-point attempts. Wofford is just 1-5 ATS its last six opportunities as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. Let's see what happens when they have to face a "real" team. So far the Terriers have relied on two big second halves. Not sure that can continue. W&M's two big guys should give Wofford trouble. Play on WILLIAM & MARY AAA | |||||||
11-11-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Alabama -12 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ALABAMA Both of these teams are off losses. For Alabama, that's unexpected. The Crimson Tide were 7-point home favorites in an 81-80 loss to Penn in the first game of the season. Just a bad week all around in Tuscaloosa. FAU fell to Miami by 14 on Friday. That was after a shaky defensive effort in the opener where they gave up 81 points to a Division II school. So look for the Crimson Tide to bounce back offensively after a dreadful 35% shooting night against Penn. Bama has had more time to prepare for this game as well. They've been off for five days. Injuries and waiting on the eligibility of a transfer have realy hampered Nate Oats start here. But the 1st year coach should turn things around, just like he did at Buffalo. Only 2 of FAU's 13 players that saw time against Miami finished in double figures. So while Alabama's depth has taken a hit, FAU really doesn't have much depth to speak of. With poor defense and a 34.4% shooting effort against Miami, there's no reason to believe FAU competes here. Play on ALABAMA AAA | |||||||
11-10-19 | James Madison v. Virginia -25.5 | Top | 34-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* play on VIRGINIA Two years ago, Virginia suffered the ultimate humiliation by becoming the first ever #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. They more than redeemed themselves last year by winning the National Championship. This year's team is ranked #11 and opened things up with a 48-34 win over Syracuse. As you can tell from that final score, it was even uglier than usual for the Cavaliers. But the good news is they still won by double digits despite shooting only 16% from the three-point range. They also turned it over 16 times. Last year's team set a school record by making an average of 18 three's per game and they also led the entire country by turning it over just 9.0 times per game. So those numbers from the first game are a lock to improve (even though the 3-pt line has been moved back this year). James Madison is no match for Virginia. The Dukes beat Charlotte 79-74 on Wednesday. But they've never beaten Virginia, an in-state rival, in 10 all-time tries. On the road, the Cavaliers held Syracuse to just 23% shooting and 34 points. Now just imagine what they'll do at home where they've never lost an opener under Coach Bennett (10-0). JMU was without one of its best players (Dwight Wilson) in the opener and he's listed as questionable here. Virginia has covered 67% of the time it has been a favorite the L3 years, going 44-22 ATS. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
11-09-19 | Cal-Irvine v. Pepperdine -1.5 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PEPPERDINE It's never personal when we play on or against a team. It's simply a read of the current situation and marketplace. So the fact we went against Pepperdine on Tuesday should not be construed as any kind long-term negative outlook on the Waves. If you got a chance to read our analysis for the Pepperdine-Cal game, you know that we had almost nothing negative to say about Pepperdine. It was simply an opportunity to take a team from a major conference, getting points against a mid-major. Cal won the game 87-71. As disappointing a result as that was for Pepperdine, they should bounce back here against UC Irvine. The Anteaters picked up a road win in their opener, but barely, as they beat San Diego 76-73. They did not cover as they were 5.5 point favorites. UC Irvine attempted only 11 three pointers in that game. They made just two. That kind of shooting isn't going to cut it on a regular basis, especially when playing on the road. Really, the Anteaters were somewhat fortunate to even win Tuesday. They were down 14 at halftime. Pepperdine allowed Cal to shoot 57.4% while making only 37.1% of its own attempts. That kind of disparity won't happen often. Play on PEPPERDINE AAA | |||||||
11-08-19 | Eastern Illinois v. Wisconsin -18.5 | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WISCONSIN Wisconsin's season started with a two-point loss to St. Mary's on Tuesday. They'll look to bounce back against a much lesser opponent on Friday, Tony Romo's alma mater of Eastern Illinois. The Badgers did cover the spread on Tuesday as they were four-point underdogs in a game that went to overtime. The game took place in Sioux Falls, SD. The team's top returning scorer D'Metrick Trice finished with just 10 points on 3 of 7 shooting. There was a six minute stretch in the first half where no one on the team made a field goal. Wisconsin was also badly outrebounded. None of that should happen again tonight in Madison. Nor will the Badgers succumb to a 21-3 run by the opposition. Eastern Illinois lost by 25 on Tuesday and allowed Texas Tech to shoot 55%. Opening its season with road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin all but guaranteed Eastern Illinois would open 0-2. After such a bad performance in the first game, you have to imagine the players have little confidence coming into this game. Wisconsin has covered seven of the last nine times they have been a home favorite of more than 12 points. They should be able to "name their score" here. Play on WISCONSIN AAA | |||||||
11-07-19 | Seattle University v. Washington State -3 | Top | 54-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON STATE We know Washington State is off a bad year, but it's rather preposterous to see the Cougs laying such a short number at home to a small school like Seattle. Remember two nights ago we had Cal as a home dog against Pepperdine and the Bears won outright. That Cal play is worth mentioning again because the Bears were the only team to finish below Wazzu in last year's Pac 12 standings. Wazzu draws an even weaker opponent for its season opener as Seattle is a WAC school, perhaps one of the weakest overall conferences in the country. The RedHawks were just 6-10 in conference play last year. Seattle has already played a game. It beat Pacific Lutheran, a non-board team, by 34 points. Getting out to a 31-7 lead was huge. But nothing close to that will be happening tonight. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost to the RedHawks last year by nine points. That game was in Seattle though. Wazzu shot very poorly in the game, making less than 30% of its field goal attempts. Despite that loss, the Cougs are still 11-1 ATS their L12 games vs the WAC. Washington State has a new coach, Kyle Smith, who comes over from San Francisco. He led the Dons to 20 wins last season. Lots of new talent was brought in. A new coach is not going to want to lose a game like this. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA | |||||||
11-06-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State opens the year ranked #18 in the country. They face a Cincinnati team going through a transition with a new coach and lots of new players. Playing in Columbus, the season opener sets up well for the Buckeyes. These schools didn't play for 98 years, but are now opening the season against one another for the second consecutive season. OSU won last year's game in Cincinnati, 64-56 as a 4.5-point dog. That was a signal that the Buckeyes were "for real" and they'd end up making the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati has made the Big Dance 10 years in a row. But there could be some early growing pains this season. Mick Cronin left to go coach at UCLA. Five players transferred and two more graduated, leaving new coach John Brannen to almost have to start over from scratch. Yes, he does have three starters back, but we don't think that's enough to match up with the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State has the Wesson brothers and Kaleb reportedly dropped 30 pounds in the offseason. Having beaten a better Cincinnati team on the road to open last season, it stands to reason the Buckeyes should have an even easier time this year in Columbus. The Bearcats have lost 26 of the last 33 times they've been a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Play on OHIO STATE AAA | |||||||
11-06-19 | Southeastern Louisiana v. Tulane -5.5 | Top | 55-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TULANE When you are as terrible as Tulane was last season, a coaching change is all but assured. The Green Wave finished 4-27 in 2018-19, a shockingly bad record when you consider they had a former NBA coach in Mike Dunleavy in charge of the program. Ron Hunter likely will never coach in the NBA, but he's a massive upgrade from Dunleavy in the college ranks. Tulane's new coach comes over from Georgia State, who he led to three NCAA Tournament appearances in the last five years, including one memorable 1st round upset. Hunter did lose last year's leading scorer Caleb Daniels, who left for Villanova. But Hunter brought in four transfers of his own, one of them (Teshaun Hightower) likely to be the team's leading scorer this year. SE Louisiana also had a first year coach, David Keifer, who was previously an assistant here. But Keifer lost the top two scorers from last year's team and they accounted for about 33 points per game. Unlike Hunter and Tulane, Keifer doesn't seem to have an adequate way to replace that lost production. This is a big game for Hunter, who is looking to make a statement in his first game. It's a shockingly low number for a home game. Tulane should win by double digits. Play on TULANE AAA | |||||||
11-05-19 | Pepperdine v. California +2.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CAL Despite winning only eight games last year and being picked to finish last in the Pac 12, California actually has some optimism this year. They've got a new coach and landed a key transfer that could end up leading the team in scoring. Pepperdine is a middle of the road WCC team. It is definitely uncharted territory to see them laying points on the road against a team from a superior conference. Cal's new coach is Mark Fox. He previously spent nine years at Georgia where he had six winning seasons, five postseason appearances (two NCAA Tourney) and won 55% of his games. It's a good land for the Bears. Fox's first big land was grand transfer Kareem South. South comes over from Texas A&M-CC. Despite being an inexperienced team, this season opener is a game Cal can win. For what it's worth, the Bears covered the final five games last year. Play on CAL AAA | |||||||
11-05-19 | Florida International +15 v. Mississippi State | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 8* on FIU Both of these teams have plenty of experience. FIU has four starters back from a team that won 20 games last year. Mississippi State also has four starters back, but one of them won't play here because of a suspension. Looking at the way the line has moved for this opening night matchup, it's pretty clear "sharp" money sides with the underdog. So do we. The player suspended for MSU is Nick Weatherspoon. He will miss the first 10 games of the season. He also missed the final 10 of last season for the same undisclosed violation of team rules. The Bulldogs season did not end well as they were upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by Liberty. The Bulldogs also didn't look very good in an exhibition against vs. South Alabama, winning that game by only three points. FIU isn't getting a ton of respect right now. Maybe that's because they did lose last year's leading scorer, Brian Beard (17.5 PPG). But the Panthers employ a system that will keep them competitive here. That system was brought over by coach Jeremy Ballard, who was previously at VCU. If you know anything about the way VCU plays, then you should now know what to expect with FIU. It's an up-tempo game where they'll force a lot of turnovers. FIU played at the fastest tempo in the country last season. They forced 10.6 steals/game, which was #1 in the country. Play on FIU AAA | |||||||
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA We are guaranteed to have a first time national champion on Monday when Texas Tech takes on Virginia. Texas Tech beat Michigan State 61-51 in one national semifinal while Virginia outlasted Auburn 63-62 in the other. It should be pointed out that Virginia led their game by as much as 10 points before watching that lead go away and then needing the refs to bail them out in the end. We think that due to the nature of the win against Auburn, Virginia isn't getting the proper credit here. Our own line was between 4.5 and 5 points, so there's value on the favorite. The Cavaliers spent much of the year ranked #1 in the country and when they weren't, they were close to the top. Texas Tech has saved its best basketball for the right time, but Virginia will be the toughest opponent they've faced all year. Virginia may not have covered Saturday, but they are 16-5 ATS the 21 times they have been coming off an ATS loss. Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS vs. the ACC. This will be an ugly game, but Virginia will be the winner. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
04-06-19 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 61-51 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TEXAS TECH Playing both Michigan State games last weekend worked out well for us as we hit the Under in both. After having little difficulty in defeating Minnesota and LSU, Duke was obviously going to present Sparty with a much greater challenge and sure enough that was a one-point win (68-67) where MSU only shot 42.9% from the field. That was the 1st time they had been matched up against a team on par with them defensively and it resulted in a Tournament-low for points scored. When it comes to defense, no team has a better efficiency rating than Texas Tech, who just held the #1 offensive team in the country (Gonzaga) to 69 points on 42.4% shooting. Before that, the Red Raiders held Michigan to 44 points (32.7 FG%), Buffalo to 58 points (36.5 FG%) and Northern Kentucky to 57 points (37.1 FG%). So tonight should be another new low in points for Michigan State in the Tourney. Texas Tech is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this Tournament, winning the last two games as underdogs, so they're used to being in this position. Before upsetting Gonzaga in the Elite Eight, they'd won by 15 or more in each Tourney game with the showings against both Buffalo and Michigan being especially exemplary. Both teams have been great against the spread of late. But Texas Tech is the call here thanks to that defense. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA | |||||||
04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia -5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA It's certainly going to be a contrast of styles in this first Final Four matchup with the high-flying Auburn attack going against the methodical pace Virginia likes to set. Ultimately, something has to give and we believe defense will win out in the end. That means Virginia, who has been one of the top teams in College Basketball all season, as opposed to an Auburn team that saved its best basketball for the Tournament. The Tigers have already downed Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky thanks to an incredible display of three-point shooting. But they have not yet had to go against a team that guards the three-point line as well as Virginia does (28.7 3-pt % allowed). Remember Auburn lost one of its top scorers - Chuma Okeke - in the Sweet 16. Without him, they were still able to defeat Kentucky, but that's an opponent they are very familiar with. Virginia is a different story. Lost in the shuffle here is the fact the Cavaliers have a higher offensive efficiency rating than Auburn. They also only turn it over nine times per game and do a good job of getting to the free throw line. When they get to the FT line, they convert at a 74% clip. Virginia also actually shoots a better percentage from three-point range (for the season) compared to Auburn. The lone 1-seed still standing gets the job done Saturday night. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA Virginia is our top side of the entire tournament. This is a team that continues to get less respect than it deserves. It's easy to understand why. Last year saw them suffer the indignity of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed. But that embarrassment aside, the Cavaliers have arguably been the best team in College Basketball the last two years. This tournament has seen them play the same kind of defense we saw in the regular season. The regular season saw UVA hold its opponents to the fewest number of points per game in the country. They allow just 54.8 PPG for the year and just held both Oklahoma and Oregon under that number. Purdue is 3-0 ATS in the tournament and made a record 40 three-pointers through three games. Expect that hot shooting to come to an end Saturday. The Boilermakers shooting in the last two games in particular (Villanova, Tennessee) was quite other-worldly. But Virginia isn't just a step up in class in terms of the kind of defense they'll face, it's a massive step up from both Villanova and Tennessee. The fact Purdue won their last game by 5 and Virginia by only 4 is a little misleading. The Boilers did lead by as much as 18 points, but also needed OT to get Tennessee. Virginia led Oregon virtually wire to wire and didn't allow a field goal over the final 5:43. Purdue is 0-5-1 ATS after allowing 90 or more points the last game. Virginia is 39-19-1 ATS following a straight up win. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
03-28-19 | Oregon v. Virginia -8 | Top | 49-53 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA Favorites have dominated this year's NCAA Tournament and there's no better way to illustrate that than to point to the fact there's only one team seeded lower than fifth left. Fourteen of the 16 teams seeded four or higher have gotten to the Sweet 16 and the other two were still favored to win in Round 2. That lone team left seeded lower than 5th would be Oregon, a 12-seed. But not only were they favored to win in the last round, they opened as a slight favorite against Wisconisin in the first round. But it's a bit step up for the Ducks in this round as they draw Virginia. This will undoubtedly be Oregon's toughest test in a run that has seen them win and cover 10 straight games. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. No 12 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed in this round and most of the games haven't even been close. Virginia gives up the fewest points in the country and seems to be over the mental hurdle of losing last year in the first round to MD-Baltimore County, which was the first time ever that 1 seed lost to a 16. Oregon did a nice job defensively against Wisconsin and UC Irvine, but neither was/is a good offensive team. A little known fact about Virginia is they are #2 in the country in offensive efficiency. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -7 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GONZAGA Gonzaga has looked quite impressive so far. Unlike the other #1 seeds, they never trailed in the first round. Instead, they laid a severe beatdown on Farleigh Dickinson, 87-49, a game that was never close (53-17 lead at halftime). The Bulldogs also didn't have much problem with Baylor in the Round of 32. They won that game 83-71 and had a 16-point lead at halftime. Thursday, they'll face the team that eliminated them from last year's Sweet 16, that being Florida State. But last year's meeting saw Gonzaga coming in at less than full strength as Killian Tillie couldn't suit up and that had a dramatic effect on the team according to coach Mark Few. This time, the narrative is flipped as Florida State will have to play without Phil Cofer, who is back home for his father's funeral. It's hard enough to beat Gonzaga at full strength, let alone short handed. This Gonzaga team averages 88.6 points per game while shooting 53.2 percent. Both marks are easily tops in the country with the shooting percentage blowing away every other team. The revenge factor can sometimes be overrated, but not here. In the past five NCAA Tournaments, 1 seeds are 14-1 SU in the Sweet 16, covering the spread 12 times. Play on GONZAGA AAA | |||||||
03-27-19 | Coastal Carolina v. DePaul -7.5 | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DePaul Both of these teams scored an insane amount of points in their last game. Coastal Carolina dropped a shocking 109 points on West Virginia (in Morgantown!) in an upset as 10.5-point underdogs. DePaul scoring 97 at home vs. Longwood was less shocking when you consider it was the fourth time in the last six games they'd reached at least 90. There's a pair of 100+ point efforts in there as well for the Blue Demons, so they seem like the more consistent scoring bunch in this one and they're laying a much shorter number this time around compared to the line for the Longwood game. DePaul averages more than 80 points per game at home and should have its way with a Coastal Carolina defense that's giving up 76.2 PPG on the road. The oddsmakers probably couldn't make this total high enough, but they apparently "forgot about the spread" as it's too low considering DePaul's perfect 5-0 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that just scored 100 or more in its last game. Play on DEPAUL AAA | |||||||
03-26-19 | Charleston Southern v. Hampton -1.5 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMPTON This is a second round matchup in the College Insider Tournament and we believe Hampton will enjoy a significant advantage due to having the home court. The Pirates 1st round CIT game was here at home and they beat St. Francis 81-72 as 8.5-point favorites. Their home record is now 11-3 for the season with them covering the spread in 8 of a possible 11 chances. They sure can score at home as they average 86.4 points per game. They also play much better defense, giving up only 70.8 points per game. Now a member of the Big South, this will be Hampton's second meeting of the year with Charleston Southern, whom they defeated in the regular season by a score of 94-82. That was a home game and the Pirates were favored by four points. We are shocked that they're favored by LESS for this postseason rematch. Charleston Southern barely got by Florida Atlantic in its first round CIT game, winning by only two despite shooting the ball much better. The Buccaneers don't get to the free throw line enough and that will cost them on the road against a high-scoring opponent. Play on HAMPTON AAA | |||||||
03-25-19 | Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NORFOLK STATE Norfolk State pulled a pretty big upset its last time out, upsetting Alabama (one of the NIT's four 1-seeds) 80-79 as 16-point underdogs. They're again getting no respect from the oddsmakers here against Colorado with the winner moving on to face Texas (another OT winner in its last game) two days from now in a quarterfinal matchup. The Spartans were regular season champs in the MEAC with a 14-2 conference record, so they "know how to win" and we think they're getting too many points here. Colorado is a strong home team (14-2 SU record), but it was only a five-point win over Dayton here in Boulder in 1st round NIT action. The Buffaloes are enjoying a strong finish to the year, but Norfolk State has not lost a game by double digits since before Christmas. They are 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Too many points for Colorado to lay here as the only time they were a double digit favorite this month (-10 vs. Cal) was one of two games they failed to cover the spread. Play on NORFOLK STATE AAA | |||||||
03-24-19 | Washington v. North Carolina -11.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NORTH CAROLINA Three ACC teams received #1 seeds in this Tournament and all three surprisingly struggled with their first round opponent. In the case of North Carolina, they were actually down 38-33 to Iona at halftime. But the Tar Heels exploded in the second half, scoring 55 points and won easily. Meanwhile, Washington may not have been able to play any better than it did against Utah State. They won 78-61, leading virtually the whole way. But we don't expect the Huskies to play that well again and UNC should certainly start better than they did Friday night. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 8-1 against the spread away from Chapel Hill, if coming off an Under. The Iona game did stay Under a very high total. Washington is not a good offensive team. Believe it or not, they have the lowest offensive efficiency of any team left in the tournament - with the exception of UC Irvine. Twice, Oregon held UW below 50 points late in the year, one of those in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. North Carolina is an even better defensive team that Oregon. Obviously, there's no comparison on offense as the Tar Heels average 86.1 points per game. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
03-23-19 | Villanova v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 61-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PURDUE It was not pretty, but defending champion Villanova was able to hold on to defeat St. Mary's 61-57 in their 1st round game Thursday. A little later on in the day, Purdue had a much easier time against Old Dominion, winning that game by double digits. Both games fell right near the number, but for us, the Boilermakers were a winner. We'll go with the Boilers yet again tonight as they are the superior side and 'Nova is still getting too much respect based on the fact they are the defending National Champs. But this year's team isn't nearly as good despite rolling to another Big East title. Purdue tied Michigan State for the best regular season record in the Big 10, which is something that seems to go unnnoticed. They just held ODU to 26.9% shooting and 49 points. While it obviously won't be as easy against Villanova, the Boilermakers are the much better defensive team here. In terms of defensive efficiency, there are only three teams left in the field of 32 with a worse rating than the Wildcats. Purdue enjoying a double digit advantage for almost the entire game against ODU is even more impressive when you consider they played without their starting point guard (he's a "full go" for tonight) and leading scorer Carsen Edwards shot just 7 of 23. We like Purdue a lot here. Play on PURDUE AAA | |||||||
03-22-19 | UCF v. VCU +1 | Top | 73-58 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VCU VCU is a team to keep an eye on in this Tournament due to the defense they play. They're also probably underseeded. The Rams were regular season champs in the A-10, but were bounced early in their conference tournament by an upset-minded Rhode Island team. We look for VCU to come out a make a statement here in their first round NCAA Tournament game. UCF also didn't last long in the American Tournament as they ran into the host school, Memphis, and got blown out 79-55. The Golden Knights actually enter the Tourney on a two-game losing streak as they got beat by Temple in the regular season finale. Both games they shot poorly. VCU holds its opponents to a 38.4 FG%. We know Marcus Evans hurt his knee in the loss to Rhode Island, but this is a deep team as 11 players regularly get on the court. VCU is 15-4 ATS its last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Play on VCU AAA | |||||||
03-22-19 | Iowa +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IOWA Cincinnati is fresh off winning the American Tournament, a run they capped by beating top seeded Houston. But even so, the Bearcats haven't been a great team to bet on recently. They're just 2-9 ATS the last 11 games. Now you can say the same for their 1st round opponent, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 1-9 ATS their previous 10 games. They were blown out by Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. But Iowa seems to be a good value taking points Friday. They are clearly the superior offensive team here, ranking top 15 in the country in efficiency. They average 78.3 points per game. What we saw against Michigan isn't indicative of the season as a whole. Cincy seems a little disappointed over their seeding (they should be!) and that could affect them mentally here. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS their previous 10 neutral site games. Play on IOWA AAA | |||||||
03-21-19 | Old Dominion v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 48-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PURDUE Underdogs will get a lot of love the next two days. Several of them will even pull outright upsets. But don't look for that to happen in this game. Purdue should be plenty angry following an early exit in the Big 10 Tournament and should take its frustrations out on an overmatched Old Dominion team. The Monarchs had a good season, winning 26 games, but they struggle to score. In five games played in March, ODU is averaging only 56.4 points per game. That won't cut it here. Not with Purdue averaging 76.2 PPG on the season. Old Dominion's defense can only take them so far against a superior opponent that tied for the Big 10 regular season title. Most don't realize that Purdue finished tied with Michigan State at 16-4 SU in conference play. The Boilermakers are 23-11 ATS their last 34 games. Old Dominion is 0-6 ATS their last six games following an ATS win (they covered in the Conference USA Champ Game) and 0-4 ATS its last four games vs. the Big 10. Play on PURDUE AAA | |||||||
03-21-19 | Seton Hall +2.5 v. Wofford | Top | 68-84 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SETON HALL Wofford figures to be a pretty popular choice in this game, because everyone likes the "little guy" this time of year. But we like the other side here. Wofford is not the hunter, but rather than hunted in this situation with Seton Hall as the Terriers are both the higher seed and favored. But it's a big step up from the usual competition they face in the Southern Conference. Seton Hall has wins over the likes of Maryland and Kentucky in the non-conference this year. They also beat Villanova and Marquette (twice) late in the regular season, then came within an eyelash of beating Nova again in the Big East Championship Game (lost by 2). All of those teams are seeded higher than Wofford is. Wofford has won 20 in a row, but has also never won a NCAA Tournament game. Seton Hall has covered the spread in five straight games with the only SU loss coming by two points. So they're hot too. The defense that Seton Hall plays is not something Wofford saw often in the SoCon. Also, the Pirates are a perfect 7-0 ATS in neutral site games this season (6-1 straight up). Play on SETON HALL AAA | |||||||
03-21-19 | Yale +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE Yale, champions of the Ivy League, are a solid play here against an LSU team that has lost has its head coach. Will Wade got himself caught up in the NCAA scandal and the Tigers have to go to the Tournament without him. This is a team that overachieved this year. How much credit goes to Wade can be up for debate, but certainly he deserves a large portion. Without Wade, it was an earlier than expected exit for LSU in the SEC Tournament as they got upset by Florida. The Tigers weren't a particularly great defensive team anyway and they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. Yale has scored at least 90 point in six different games this season, including Sunday's Ivy League Final vs. Harvard. I had the Bulldogs in that game and came away quite impressed as six players scored in double figures. Yale is 3-0 straight up and against the spread at neutral sites this year, winning by an average of 11.1 points per game. They can stick with LSU here. Play on YALE AAA | |||||||
03-20-19 | Harvard +5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HARVARD Harvard came up short in the Ivy League Championship Game, falling to rival Yale. But I see them having an easier time here in the NIT vs. Georgetown, who is just 5-16 ATS its last 21 times hosting a non-conference opponent. The Hoyas' home court and name recognition are what has them favored here, but really they shouldn't be laying more than a couple points to a Harvard side that is every bit their equal. G'town was one and done in the Big East Tournament, losing to Seton Hall 73-57. They also got smoked late in the regular season by DePaul, 101-69. The Hoyas can score (79.9 PPG), but they also give up too many points (78.3 PPG). Harvard should make enough shots to at least stay within the number here and they'd actually won outright the previous four times as a dog before the loss to Yale Sunday (where they led at halftime). Play on HARVARD AAA | |||||||
03-17-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4.5 | Top | 69-57 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Houston blew the cover late on Saturday, letting a double digit lead slip away against Memphis. They had kept the Tigers in check the entire game, never allowing them to get above 25% from the field! But the Cougars had their own scoreless stretch, for about four minutes, as they missed 10 straight shots and that let Memphis pull within three. As upset as we are about Houston not covering yesterday (we had them), it was still an impressive win when you consider the defensive performance and that it was a true road game (tournament is being played in Memphis). Memphis had lost only twice at home all season. Today they face a Cincinnati team that also won by three Saturday. The Bearcats beat Wichita State, coming back from a halftime deficit. Houston beat Cincy twice in the regular season, winning by 7 and 16. They are the better team here and unlike yesterday won't have to deal with a hostile crowd and it's a shorter number. The Bearcats have covered the spread just one time in their last 10 games. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
03-17-19 | Yale -4.5 v. Harvard | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on YALE One of the oldest rivalries in collegiate sports is renewed here and the stakes couldn't be much higher. Yale and Harvard will play Sunday with the winner moving on to represent the Ivy League in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams tied for the regular season title, both finishing 10-4 SU in conference play, but Yale was three games better overall. However, the key was Harvard winning both of the regular season games. That gave them the #1 seed entering this Tournament. It also gives Yale double revenge and note they are the betting favorite Sunday. Yale beat Princeton Sunday in the semifinals by a score of 83-77. They led by 12 at halftime and won easily. Harvard had a little more trouble against Penn, even though their final margin of victory (8) was actually larger than Yale's. The Crimson only led by two at halftime though. We think the oddsmakers are making it pretty clear that they think Yale is the better team here and we're inclined to agree. Harvard did sweep the season series, but they also had three OT wins in Ivy League play. Yale is basically +8.0 PPG vs. the Ivy League while Harvard is less than +2.0. Play on YALE AAA | |||||||
03-16-19 | Memphis v. Houston -8 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON Memphis is quite fortunate the the American Tournament is being played on its home court, the FedEx Forum. The Tigers have been beaten only twice this year at home. Yesterday saw them ride a wave of momentum as they dominated likely NCAA Tourney team UCF, winning by a score of 79-55. But today they run into the best team that the American has to offer, that being top seed Houston, who has lost just two times all year period. The Cougars destroyed UConn on Friday, winning 84-45 as 11.5-point favoirtes. They beat Memphis in the lone regular season matchup by a score of 90-77. While that was at home, we think this team is more than capable of doing the same on the road. The Cougars are 9-1 ATS this season if they allowed 25 points or less in the first half of their previous games. They held UConn to exactly 25. Then they allowed only 20 in the second half, holding the Huskies scoreless for 13 minutes at one point. Houston is well rested as no starter played more than 30 minutes Friday. Memphis is playing its third game in three days. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
03-16-19 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE While the lower half of the draw featured an upset (Minnesota beating Purdue), the top half of the Big 10 Tournament features the expected semfinal battle between #1 seed Michigan State and #4 seed Wisconsin. The Spartans won yesterday, beating Ohio State 77-70. They did not cover as double digit favorites. Wisconsin ousted Nebraska 66-62, but they didn't cover either. Both teams got off to fast starts Friday before failing to cover. Michigan State won the only regular season meeting, 62-59, and that was in Madison. Of interest is the fact the Spartans have now scored more than 75 points in three consecutive games. They are 10-1 ATS when doing that this season. Of the two teams, they looked better yesterday. They were up by as many as 21 in the second half. Nick Ward is now back after missing five games due to a broken hand. He contributed eight points in 14 minutes against Ohio State. We feel MSU is the better team here and they'll show it today. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
03-15-19 | Duke -3 v. North Carolina | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DUKE To say North Carolina was "gifted" a couple wins over Duke in the regular season might be too much. But you can't deny the Tar Heels caught a massive break in each game. The first one was the infamous Zion Williamson injury and an obviously shell-shocked Blue Devils team went down in defeat, 88-72. Incredibly, the rematch saw another major Duke injury take place early in the game. This one was to Marques Bolden. The result was another loss for the Blue Devils. Bolden will not play in the ACC Tournament, but in case you hadn't heard (unlikely), Williamson is back and he was awesome in last night's 84-72 win over Syracuse. The freshman made all 13 shots he attempted and pulled down 14 rebounds as well. All shoe problems appear rectified. The idea that Duke is going to lose to North Carolina three times this year seems far-fetched to us. All we need to do is lay a small spread here and I think the Blue Devils are on a mission to prove they still deserve a #1 seed. With Williamson in the lineup this year, Duke has lost just one time in regulation. It was by two points to Gonzaga, in Maui. This isn't Maui. It's the ACC Tournament, an event Coach K has owned through the years. Play on DUKE AAA | |||||||
03-15-19 | Colorado v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Colorado has had to play each of the last two days, putting them at a distinct disadvantage here in the Pac 12 semifinals against top seeded Washington. The Huskies had a closer than expected call (for some!) against USC yesterday afternoon, but we took the underdog in that one, noting the Trojans were a better team than most realized. They showed that by sticking with favored UW despite the Huskies playing very well. UW made 13 of 28 three-pointers and led by double digits in the second half, before USC went on a late run. Because the final score ended up being close, we're getting a relative gift from the oddsmakers today in only having to lay a small number against a team play for a third time in as many days. Washington is very good defensively, ranking inside the top 20 nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions. They beat Colorado in both regular season games, winning by seven and nine points. The Buffaloes were hardly impressive in Wednesday's five point win over California. They got off to a great start yesterday vs. Oregon State, building a lead as big as 21 points. But they almost blew it and we think they're officially set to run out of gas tonight. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
03-15-19 | Florida v. LSU -2 | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU Florida turned in a strong second half performance in beating Arkansas 66-50 on Thursday afternoon. The Razorbacks failed to make a single basket over the game's final 7:54. The Gators "reward" for winning that game is a quarterfinal date with the SEC's top seed LSU. These teams split a pair of games in the regular season. Both went to overtime and both times the road team emerged victorious. With LSU head coach Will Wade on leave (due to the NCAA scandal), we think public sentiment will be against the Tigers. But don't make that mistake. LSU has been defying skeptics this entire season. They are 26-5 overall, 16-2 in SEC play and have won five straight games (5-0 ATS too!). Their two conference losses were a one-point loss to Arkansas and the OT loss to Florida. Florida had lost three in a row before yesterday's win. LSU is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games where the line is three points or less. Obviously, the fact the Tigers had off yesterday while Florida had to play a game is a huge benefit. Play on LSU. AAA | |||||||
03-14-19 | South Alabama v. UL - Lafayette -2.5 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISIANA The Sun Belt Tournament format is one that greatly favors the top seeds. The top two teams only have to win once to make the Final. The #3 and #4 seeds need to win only twice to get there. Everyone else is facing an uphill climb, including a South Alabama team that would have to win FOUR times just to make the Final. We certainly don't see that happening. The Jaguars had little trouble getting by Arkansas State in the opening round (won 75-67) and got a day off prior to today's matchup. But UL Lafayette has played well this last month. The Ragin Cajuns are 6-2 straight up their last eight games and 7-1 ATS. What if I told you that they are one of the nation's highest scoring teams? They are, averaging 82.0 points per game! It was a high-scoring game when these teams met in the regular season. Louisiana won 88-84. South Alabama is unlikely to score that many again (they average 73.2 PPG) and is surprisingly not getting much help from the oddsmakers here. We were surprised at how low this number was when it opened. Play on LOUISIANA AAA | |||||||
03-14-19 | USC +5 v. Washington | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* winner on USC USC looked impressive yesterday in beating Arizona 78-65 and we think that that'll carry over into today's Pac 12 quarterfinal battle with top seed Washington. The Trojans went off as 2-pt dogs against Arizona. The Pac 12 was not good this year. Washington was the "best" team, but that's not saying much. The Huskies were not particularly impressive down the stretch either. They turned in a "dud" showing in the last regular season game, losing 55-47 to Oregon at home. They also lost to a terrible Cal team two weeks ago. Looking at their two wins in the past four games, one came in overtime and the other by only 1 point. This is one of the weakest top seeds in any conference tournament. Led by Bennie Boatright's 22 points and 11 rebounds, USC turned in an 18-2 run in each half yesterday. The Trojans never led in a 75-62 loss to UW in the regular season, but that game was played in Seattle and the Huskies looked a lot better at the time than they do now. Play on USC AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |