Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-14-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico +14 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: The picks: This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico. | |||||||
11-14-20 | Fresno State v. Utah State +13 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Fresno is 2-1 and Utah State is 0-3. Fresno lost 34-19 to Hawaii to open the year, but the Bulldogs have rebounded to beat two bad teams in UNLV and Colorado State. Utah State's competition has been much greater, having lost to Boise State, SDSU and Nevada. After the 34-9 loss to Nevada, head coach Gary Anderson was fired, with assistant head-coach Frank Maile now stepping in as interim. I think the Aggies will respond on the field of play to this coaching change. The picks: Utah State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Fresno State is is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. No outright, but look for the coaching change to help motivate the home side here as they at they very least, take this one rigth down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* MW GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State. | |||||||
11-13-20 | East Carolina +27.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -117 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Does ECU have a shot at winning this game outright? Of course not. There's zero chance of that. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule and it appears to be on a mission. However, I think this is a great situational play, as I do think the Pirates will play hard on this nationally televised game, while I also fully expect the Bearcats to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they get ready for a much tougher game at UCF next weekend. Situationally, this one sets up great for the Pirates. The picks: Cincinnati has already blown out plenty of opponents this season and there's just zero reason for it do so again. We've reached the point of the season where it has to start looking ahead and I fully expect that to happen here. I base my picks on many things. Situations, trends, trying to go against public money/perception at times. For this one though, it's all about the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one (it's also important to note that ECU is in fact 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road as well.) Grab the points. This is a 10* U OF THE U on ECU. | |||||||
11-12-20 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts come in off a 24-10 home loss to the Ravens, but I think they'll find a way to get past the "on again, off again" Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee ended a two-game skid with a tougher than expected 24-17 home win over the Bears last weekend. These teams played twice last year of course and the road team won each tame. I like Philip Rivers to bounce back here vs. this suspect Titans secondary. Overall Indy is averaging 26 points per game and allowing 20. The picks: Tennessee is averaging 29 PPG and it's conceding 25.1. The Titans are a poor 27th against the pass as well, allowing 275 yards per game. The Colts are third against the run, which is Tennessee's strength. I'm banking on Rivers being the difference maker here vs. this terrible Titans defense. That said, grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Indianapolis Colts. | |||||||
11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -7.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: EMU opened with a 27-23 loss to Kent State, while Ball State lost 38-31 to Miami Ohio. Preston Hutchinson was 21 of 35 for the Eagles in his opener, throwing for 241 yards, two TD's and two INT's. EMU's weak point last year was its defense and I think the unit will predictably struggle on the road here in this difficult venue. The picks: Ball State had an interesting season last year, as it won only five games, but it was just eight points away from an eight win season. The Ball State defense is also poor, but the offense has been great, led by senior QB Drew Pitt, who had 309 passing yards, one TD and one INT in the opener. Ball State's balanced offense will be the difference maker in the end though, as Caleb Huntley had 132 rushing yards and two TD's in last week's setback on the ground. Pitt and the Cardinals have a huge experience edge. They're also playing at home. I like Ball State to put the foot on the gas and keep it there until the final whistle. Lay the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Ball State. | |||||||
11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 179 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, but regardless, I like the Jets to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is a big game for the Jets, who have an opportunity to get their first win of the year against the worst team they've faced all year, while also putting the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots playoff hopes. This is a monster "revenge" game as well for the Jets, who have lost eight straight in this series and nine of ten. Both teams have been terrible offensively and "OK" defensively. The picks: Darnold and the Jets have had to deal with several injuries, but I still think he's a better QB than Newton. Darnold won AFC Player of the week twice last season. Note as well that the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing at home to the Patriots. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets. | |||||||
11-08-20 | Bears v. Titans -6 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Titans come in off a 31-20 setback to the Bengals last weekend, while the Bears lost 26-23 in OT to the Saints. The Bears offense is going to struggle to keep pace here in my opinion. So far Chicago has gotten great defensive play to keep it in games, but Tennessee averages 29.7 PPG and it only concedes 23. The picks: Chicago is also only 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home, while the Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU losses. I love Tennessee here, as I expect Derrick Henry to set the ton early. Lay the points, expect a rout! This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on the Titans. | |||||||
11-07-20 | Western Kentucky +9.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 129 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: WKU has lost three of its last four, but off a blowout loss to BYU, I like the Hilltoppers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. FAU has had three games postponed due to Covid. It's been good in the early going, allowing only 13.3 PPG, but I think it comes out a bit flat to start here, and that's going to be the advantage we grab hold of and ride to a solid cover. Despite losing 41-10 to BYU, WKU had 166 rushing yards in the setback. QB Tyrell Pigrom had been great as well, as he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. The picks: FAU enters off a 24-3 win over UTSA. Nick Tronti had 382 passing yards, three TD's and one INT on the year. Note though that FAU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after holding a team to three points or less in a victory in its previous outing. I like the "hungrier" team to at least cover with the generous spread. This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on WKU. | |||||||
11-07-20 | Minnesota -7.5 v. Illinois | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Minnesota is 0-2. Illinois is 0-2. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. And that team will be the Gophers (and in resounding fashion!) Last year the Gophers annihilated the Illini 40-17 in this game and I expect a similar beatdown here. Last year Minnesota only lost two games total. Last time out Minnesota lost in OT to Maryland off a failed PAT. THe Gophers lost a lot of talent, but I like Tanner Morgan to help his team to bounce back here finally and get off the schneid. The picks: And here's the perfect team to do it against, as Illinois hasn't won a game since Nov. 23rd of last year. Overall the Illini allow 309 passing yards per game, which is second worst in the nation. QB Coran Taylor is a lone stand out on a poor team and I look for Minnesota to finally get untracked here (note as well that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.) I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout. This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Minnesota. | |||||||
11-07-20 | Houston +12 v. Cincinnati | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cincinnati is 5-0 and Houston is 2-2. Clearly the Bearcats are the better team and I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. Desmond Ridder leads an exciting and dynamic Bearcats offense and Cincinnati has also been great defensively. The Bearcats have a favorable remaining schedule as well, so a Championship berth is not out of the question if they can run the table. It's a shortened season, so it's definitely possible as well. The picks: Houston comes in under the radar though in my opinion (note that it's 4-1 ATS/SU in its last five on the road.) Houston fell apart in a loss to UCF last weekend. They also have a loss to BYU (43-26). They have big wins over Tulane (49-31) and Navy (37-21). I think the Bearcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. Expect a comfortable cover. This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on Houston. | |||||||
11-07-20 | Boston College v. Syracuse +14 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 125 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: Syrause is a bad team, but I like it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boston College almost beat Clemson last week and because of that "near miss," I think the Eagles come out a bit flat here (of course, Trevor Lawrence wasn't playing in that one.) Overall BC averages 27.6 points per game, while allowing 26.3. Syracuse comes in off a 38-14 home loss to Wake Forest. The Orange actually played decently against Clemson as well, and Syracuse was the first to intercept Lawrence in his Collegiate career. Overall the Orange only average 19 PPG, while conceding 13.3. The picks: Yes, BC is the better team here. But the situation favors the hungry underdog home side. With a game at home against Notre Dame in another nationally televised contest, I expect BC to take the foot off the gas as well in the second half if it does in fact have a lead. I'll grab the points and expect a solid back door cover. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Syracuse. | |||||||
11-06-20 | San Jose State +9.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 108 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose State is 2-0 and I think it'll give the Aztecs a run for their money on Friday night. Most recently the Spartans topped New Mexico 38-21 last Saturday, covering the 13.5 point spread. SDSU is also 2-0 after its 38-7 win over Utah State. SDSU won this matchup 27-17 last year and it has in fact won seven straight in this series. Can anyone say "revenge factor?!" Nick Starkel had three TD passes for SJSU last weekend. He also ran two in. SJSU averages 27.5 PPG and it concedes 13.5. The picks: SDSU got two rushing TD's from Greg Bell last time out. The Aztecs actually outgained the hapless Aggies 570-215. Overall SDSU averages 36 points and it allows just 6.3. Both teams have faced lesser competition, but that changes this weekend. SJSU has made significant strides on both sides of the ball and I think it's being severely underestimated here by the oddsmakers. I like Starkel to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State. | |||||||
11-05-20 | Wyoming v. Colorado State +3.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Wyoming is 1-1 after defeating Hawaii 31-7 last Thursday. Colorado State opened is season with a 38-17 loss to Fresno State. The silver-lining for the Rams was that they gained 372 yards on offense (unfortunately allowing 442 yards of their own.) Wyoming has to start the season with its backup QB in Levi Williams, who looked decent vs. a weak Warriors team last week. But it's still significant to note that the Cowboys are down signifcant pieces, including to starting quarterback Sean Chambers is out indefinitely with a fractured fibula. Others include RB Titus Swen and offensive lineman Alonzo Velazquez, while defensive end Garrett Crall is questionable. The picks: Colorado State will settle down here at home. The defense has a big opportunity to bounce back here as well. The offense though looked great in the dual QB system with Todd Centeio and Patrick O'Brien. This is definitely one of those cases where we should not "overreact" after the Week 1 results. Look for the Rams depth to be the difference here and I also expect a much better defensive effort. Outright is possible, but let's grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State. | |||||||
11-04-20 | Buffalo -9.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Most of Buffalo's defense from last year returns. The unit would go on to give up less than three TD's in five of its last six games last year. NIU has QB Ross Bowers under center, but the Huskies are dealing with a huge turnover of players on both sides of the ball this season. Bower was sacked 18 times last year and he had more INT's than TD's. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Buffalo also welcomes back its biggest offensive weapon in RB Jaret Patterson, who averaged 5.8 YPC last year. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease is also back, and he had 1,200 yards passing, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. The picks: NIU is also only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite. Buffalo had some issues with covid a few weeks ago, but I still think it'll easily pull away down the stretch vs. this Huskies team that is basically starting from scratch. I'm laying the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo. | |||||||
11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +11 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 178 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa is probably the best team in the NFC. That said, it did lose to New Orleans in Week 1 and it faces the Saints next week at home, followed by another divisional contest at Carolina. This game vs. the Giants is important, but not nearly as much as the two contests on deck. New York on the other hand has had to deal with several on and off-field issues, but it's lost its last three games by three points or less and four of six by eight points or less. Clearly the Bucs are the better team, but I think they'll slow down in the second half if they have a lead, while I expect New York to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. The pick: Tampa is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger victory in its last outing. Expect the hungry Giants to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants. | |||||||
11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 142 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Colts are off their bye week and they catch a Lions teach which has won two straight. The Colts are a huge step up on the defensive side for Detroit here though and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency this week. Philip Rivers looked great two weeks ago, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals on the road, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions secondary has been suspect as well, so I love a rested Rivers to have a big game on the road here. The pick: Detroit is still just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 overall as well, while Indianpolis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU win and coming out of its bye-week. I'm laying the points, I'm expecting a blowout. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Indianapolis Colts. | |||||||
10-31-20 | Mississippi State +32 v. Alabama | 0-41 | Loss | -108 | 146 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. The pick: Note that Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a double-digit home loss, while Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS win. Alabama gets caught looking ahead to its bye week here, so grab the points! This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Mississippi State. | |||||||
10-31-20 | Texas +3 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 143 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. | |||||||
10-31-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas +28.5 | 52-22 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. The pick: Iowa State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a 25 points or higher favorite on the road and coming off a SU/ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points! This is an 8* LIVE DOG DESTRUCTION on Kansas. | |||||||
10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but it's still trying to win games. These teams played in Week 5 and the Panthers scored the 23-16 victory, so this is also a revenge game as well. Atlanta comes in off a 23-22 loss to Detroit last time out, a heartbreaker which I think it'll boune back from here. Overall Atlanta is averaging 26.3 PPG and it's allowing 29.6. The pick: Carolina is averaging 23.1 points per game and it's allowing 24. The Panthers have lost two in a row now and I think their offense will have a hard time keeping up with Atlanta and Julio Jones, who was not playing in the Week 5 contest. Carolina is also just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as a road underdog. Atlanta has played better than its 1-6 record and I expect it to avenge the earlier Week 5 loss today. That said, grab the points! This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Atlanta Falcons. | |||||||
10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 127 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have done well this year. The Hawks are 5-0 and the Cardinals are 4-2. If you look at each team's schedule though, neither team has played any tough games yet. Seattle's wins have come over team's with a combined 9-21 record. Arizona has played teams with a combined 11-21 record. For the first time this season these teams are truly going to be tested here. Seattle's defense has been poor for sure this season and it's "lucky" that it escaped with a 27-26 win at home over the Vikes two weeks ago. The pick: Arizona comes in off its most complete performance of the year in a 38-10 win over the Cowboys last weekend. I think this sets up perfectly for the Cards here. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. I'm grabbing the points, but won't be shocked by an outright upset either. This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Arizona Cardinals. | |||||||
10-25-20 | Jaguars +9 v. Chargers | 29-39 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have been poor. The Chargers come in off their bye-week and I expect them to be a step behind the Jaguars today. Gardner Minshew and company have nothing to lose here and this one has all the makings of a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. The pick: I give the nod to Minshew over the Chargers' Justin Herbert as well. Note as well that the LA is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and after three or more SU losses. Expect the Jaguars to do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded here. This is an 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. | |||||||
10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans +3.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Texans have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. The Packers looked pretty ordinary in their beatdown loss in Tampa last weekend. Clearly Aaron Rodgers will have a better game here, however Houston won't be lacking for motivation here after its first win of the year over Jacksonville last time out. The Packers strength of schedule definitely has to be called into question here. While Rodgers is off his worst start of his career, the Texans' DeShaun Watson is off his best start of the season. These teams are moving in different directions. The pick: Houston has played the much tougher schedule as well to this point and it faces a difficult road schedule up next. Their season is on the line, I like the Texans to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans. | |||||||
10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +13.5 | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bills come in off a 26-17 loss to Kansas City, a Chiefs team which was coming off its second loss of the year in a poor effort at home to the Raiders. Now they face a Jets team desperate to get off the schneid at home and which welcomes back starting QB Sam Darnold. The pick: Buffalo has a game at home vs. division rival New England next week, followed by a visit from league-leading Seattle. Can anyone say "look-ahead spot?!" The numbers on paper favor Buffalo, but the overall situation definitely favors the hungry Jets. New York isn't going to go 0-16 SU/ATS this season and this is its best chance yet for a straight-up victory. That said, let's grab the points! This is an 8* play on the New York Jets. | |||||||
10-24-20 | UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -105 | 106 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: UNLV finished last in the Mountain West last year, going 4-8 overall and 2-6 in league play. The Rebels only won four games, but two of those wins came right at the end of the year. SDSU was second in the Mountainwest last year, going 10-3 and 5-3. UNLV QB Kenyon Oblad will have his hands full in this difficult venue, but he does come in with much more experience and with his top three wide receivers from last year. The pick: The Aztecs have a new QB in Carson Baker this season, last year he made just 24 passes. SDSU also has a new starting RB in Chance Bell. SDSU was No. 2 in the nation defensively last year, but the unit also had some turnover this year. With a game at Utah State on Halloween Night up next, I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door wide open for Oblad and company. Grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Florida Atlantic +17 v. Marshall | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think Marshall gets caught looking past lowly FAU today. Marshall is ranked No. 22 in the country with a 4-0 record. Last time out it beat Louisiana Tech 35-17. The Thundering Herd have also had two other games postponed due to Covid 19 issues. FAU has only played one game so far this year, a 21-17 victory over Charlotte. The Owls have had to deal with sevreal Covid related issues as well. FAU is led by the dynamic play of dual-threat QB Nick Tronti. The pick: Marshall though is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a 15 points or greater victory in which it also covered the spread, while FAU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with two or more weeks of rest. I like the well rested Owls to sneak in through the back door down the stretch, after Marshall takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points. This is an 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on FAU. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: Michigan State defeated Rutgers 27-0 as a 22-point favorite last year, but MSU has a new coach and a new QB and it has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball. The Spartans lost almost all of their offensive talent from last season's team which struggled with offensive consistency. The pick: Rutgers was dead last in the Big Ten last year, but it returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Quarterback Noah Vedral doesn't have a lot of experience, but the transfer is decent and is a true dual threat. I look for MSU to get caught looking past its opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* play on Rutgers. | |||||||
10-24-20 | Georgia Southern +6.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: CC has a target on its back as the only undefeated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern won this game 30-27 last year. Georgia Southern comes in on top form as well after back-to-back wins, most recently routing UMass 41-0. Georgia Southern is ranked fourth in the country in rushing. JD King has 423 rushing yards so far. CC comes in off a 30-27 win over a ranked Louisiana team. Note though that CC's run defense gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in that one. The pick: Georgia Southern is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road underdog in the +5.5 to +7.5 range and after back-to-back victories. I think Georgia Southern's strong running game is the difference here. Grab the points. This is an 8* play on Georgia Southern. | |||||||
10-24-20 | NC State v. North Carolina -16.5 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: UNC is looking to lay a beating on NC State after a poor performance in Tallahassee. The Wolfpack are now ranked 23rd after three straight wins, including a 31-20 win over Duke last time out. NC State is led by the dynamic polay of QB Devin Leary, but he's now out for the rest of the season after breaking his fibula late in last week's victory. The pick: Florida State had a 31-7 lead over UNC, before the Tar Heels finally fell 31-28. Mack Browns team has all the pieces to bounce back big at home though, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS their last six at home as well, while the Wolfpack are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten on the road. This is an 8* play on UNC. | |||||||
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -117 | 37 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Charlie Morton has arguably been the best pitcher in all of the MLB playoffs this year. Walker Buehler has been sharp as well for the Dodgers. Their numbers are very similar and it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either starting pitcher to come out on top here. That means that these starters are a "wash" in my books and in a case like that, I think the value swings to the undervalued underdog. The pick: These clubs are very similar. They each possess amazing hitting talent and each is filled with competent bullpen pitching. In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra innings, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE. | |||||||
10-23-20 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -19 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Wisconsin plays with revenge here after falling 24-23 to Illinois as a 30-point favorite last season. The Badgers lost their next game after that setback as well to Ohio State last season, but overall the Badgers had another great year. Wisconsin is without the services of starting QB Jack Coan, meaning that Graham Mertz will have his shot at proving himself tonight on the national stage. Wisconsin also doesn't have Jonathan Taylor running the ball anymore, but Nakia Watson is expected to fill in seamlessly. The pick: Brandon Peters is back under center for Illinois this year, but most of the pieces he had around him last season have moved on. Peters only completed 55 percent of his passes last season. Illinois' best player is likely kicker James McCourt. Note though that the home side is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, while Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last five "Friday night" contests. Look for the Badgers' superior defense to be the difference maker for us down the stretch, as I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas, even if it has a large lead in the second half. Lay the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Wisconsin. | |||||||
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Arkansas State is 1-1 after a 59-52 win as a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia State last weekend. The Red Wolves though allowed 583 total yards of offense. Arkansas State enters first among the ten teams in the Sun Belt by averaging 496 yards of offense per game, but it's also dead last on the defensive end, allowing 481.8 yards. The pick: So far the MOuntaineers are 2-1 this season. App State has been off since September 26th and I expect the Mountaineers to come out and run the Red Wolves off the field with their superior play on both ends of the field. So far App State is averaging 31.3 PPG and it's conceding only 19.3. The Mountaineers have plenty of returning talent from last year and I think the extra time off just adds fuel to the fire for the home side. Conversely, after their last loss, I expect the Red Wolves to come out flat-footed here. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on App State. | |||||||
10-21-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Rays in Game 1 on the run line and while that one came up short, I do definitely believe that Tampa offers great value to bounce back in Game 2. Blake Snell has been of the best pitchers in all of MLB over the last two years and I look for the Rays' ace to deliver a solid six or seven innings. The Dodgers are going to have to use their bullpen to get the job done in Game 2. This highly favors Snell and the Rays in this come back spot. The pick: Including the three games it needed to win in a row over the Braves, LA has now won four straight games. I don't expect the Dodgers to win a fifth here. Look for Tampa's depth and experience in the starting pitching role to be the difference in this one, but just in case, lay the extra juice for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the Rays on the RUN LINE. | |||||||
10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -140 | 37 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams had difficulties in their League Championship Series victories and because of the way it played out for each team, I do indeed feel that Game 1 sets up nicely for Tyler Glasnow and the Rays. Tampa crushed all competition in the regular season to earn the AL title, while LA did the same in the Senior Circuit. These teams are very evenly matched, as they possess fantastic starting pitching and top notch bullpens. Their line-ups are also deep and talented. I do think that the Dodgers are a "fan favorite" though and this larger inflated line takes that into account. The pick: But as I mentioned above, situationally I think it sets up well for the Rays. Tampa went up 3-0 on the Astros and then lost three straight, before finally getting its act together and calmly coming away with the Game 7 victory. It was different for the Dodgers though, who went down 3-1 and then had to win three straight. After that emotional come back and with a few extra days off, I believe that the Dodgers come out flat in Game 1. Outright victory?! Of course, but I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, as this contest could easily see extra frames. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE. | |||||||
10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5 | 26-17 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: Yes, the Bills lost terribly on Tuesday night in Tennessee. Previous to that Buffalo had gone 4-0. The scheduling of that game though likely played havoc with the Bill chemistry and I expect a much better performance here at home on Monday night. The Chiefs looked pretty darn ordinary in their home loss last time out. Both teams sport similar numbers, both offensively and defensively, but I believe that this one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. KC is in Denver next weekend, while the Bills are at the Jets. The pick: The numbers/stats are working in our favor as well, as note that Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a 4-points or greater underdog. I think this one comes down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Buffalo Bills. | |||||||
10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -120 | 124 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers have ben ravaged by injury early. Jimmy Garopolo only played a half in last week's 43-17 loss to the Dolphins, but he's expected to start this week. San Francisco though still has many holes on both sides of the ball. The Rams are 4-1 and they're playing exceptional defense right now, allowing only 18 points and 330 yards of total offense per game. If San Francisco has troubles moving the ball on the Fish, I can't see it having much luck in this divisional contest vs. this elite defense. The Rams have also gotten great play from Jared Goff, who has limited the turnovers in the early going. The pick: San Francisco is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game as well, while the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing record. This one has lop-sided "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams. | |||||||
10-18-20 | Bengals +8 v. Colts | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 117 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bengals are 1-3-1 after a 27-3 loss to Baltimore. Remember, the Browns lost 34-6 to Baltimore in Week 1, but since then Baker Mayfield and the Browns have averaged almost 40 PPG. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen here for Joe Burrow and company, I'm just making a point that the Ravens defense is pretty damn good. The Colts have looked great at times and poor in others. Last week they looked bad in a 32-23 road loss to the Cleveland Browns. Nine of those points that the Browns scored came off of Philip Rivers turnovers as well. I think Indianapolis is overrated to this point and I like the hungrier home side to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. The pick: The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine off an ATS loss and as home dog of 7 points or more, while the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after an ATS loss of ten or more point in which they were the favorite. Indy gets caught looking ahead to its bye week next weekend and leaves the back door open in the second half. Outright is possible, but grab the points in the end. This is an 8* UPSET DESTROYER on the Bengals. | |||||||
10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Browns looked good last week at home vs. the Colts to move to 4-1, but they struggled in Week 1 on the road vs. Baltimore and its elite defense. Now they hit the road for an important divisional contest vs. the red hot Steelers, who are among the league leaders on the defensive end. Both teams have done well offensively, but until Mayfield can win a big game on the road in a hostile environment, I am not convinced he actually can. The pick: The Browns strength is their run game, but Nick Chubb is now out with injury. Cleveland's weakness is its defense, which doesn't bode well facing red hot Ben Roethlisberger. It's been reported that Mayfield has a minor injury today as well and will play through it. This one sets up beautifully for a home side blowout. Lay the points. This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ATS BEATDOWN on the Pittsburgh Steelers. | |||||||
10-17-20 | Kentucky +6 v. Tennessee | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Kentucky has been playing well and I think it'll take this one down to the wire. The Wildcats enter off a 24-2 win over Mississippi State, including posting six interceptions. The Vols enter off a disheartening 44-21 loss to Georgia and I expect them to get caught flat-footed here as well. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano turned the ball over three times. The pick: I think Wildcats' QB Terry Wilson is going to have a big day here. He had 463 yards passing with two touchdowns, along with 221 rushing yards and three more TD's on the ground. The Vols are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater road loss in their previous outing. With Alabama coming to town next weekend, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter!" This is an 8* ROUT on Kentucky. | |||||||
10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +7 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: SMU enters out of its bye week. Tulane fell 49-31 to Houston last weekend. This is a revenge game for the Green Wave after falling 37-20 to the Mustangs in the final game of the regular season for each team last year. SMU QB Shane Buechele has gone 105 passes without throwing a pick for SMU. The Mustangs average 44 PPG and they allow just 23.3. But with a game at home against leading Cincinnati next weekend, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for Buechele and the Mustangs. The pick: The Green Wave offense stalled last weekend. The defense was sharp in forucing five turnovers. Michael Pratt was making his first start of his career and he has 141 passing yards and a touchdown. Tulane relies mostly on the run game on offense anyways though and so far it's averaging 37 PPG, while allowing 31. The Green Wave are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS as a home dog, while the Mustangs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. No outright, but down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane. | |||||||
10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 131 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: I have a wager on the Braves to win the World Series, placed five months before the season started. I like their chances here to bounce back from yesterday's 15-3 loss. Clayton Kershaw has been great in the regular season and during the playoffs, but he's still a pedestrian 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA lifetime in the post-season. The pick: Bryse Wilson was 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA in the regular season, but he made two starts and gave up one run over eight innings with a 1.13 ERA. Clearly the Braves will move quickly to their deep bullpen if needed here. That's expected. There's a chance Kershaw might not go, in which case LA would likely turn to Dustin May, who was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA. If Kershaw does go, he's not throwing at 100% effectiveness. If May starts, it's not the most ideal situation as he'll have little time to prepare. Yes, the Dodgers bats have looked great the last two games, but Atlanta has been one of the best so far in making game to game adjustments and I completely expect that here now after yesterday's blowout. The outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance and still get a plus-money pay-out! This is an 8* HOME-RUN CLUB on the Braves RUN-LINE. | |||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Last season Georiga State upset Arkansas State 52-38 as a 6.5-point underdog and I think it has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright as well. The Panthers opened the season with a 34-31 OT loss to Louisiana-Lafayette and then had their next contest postponed. On OCtober 3rd they beat ACC foe East Carolina 49-29 as a two-point underdog. Georgia State won the yardage battle 485-286. Cornelious Brown has four touchdowns and three INT's, but the Panthers have averaged 40 PPG, while allowing 31.5. The pick: Arkansas State enters off a 50-27 win over FCS opponent Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves won the yardage battle 573 to 411. Arkansas State utilizes two quarterbacks this year in Layne Hatcher and Logan Bonner. The Red Wolves though are 0-3 in their last three as a favorite vs. an FBS opponent, while Georgia State enters with a 6-3 ATS record out of its last nine when playing the role of underdog. The Panthers secondary already has five interceptions, so I think the Red Wolves have a difficult time moving the ball today. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Georgia State. | |||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ragin Cajun's blew the Chanticleers away in last year's 48-7 win, but I expect Coastal Carolina to be much more competitive this season. The Chanticleers went 5-7 last year. This season they're 3-0. Eight starters returned to the offensive side of the ball and in the early going they're averaging 44.3 PPG. CC had 38 in a win over Kansas to open the season. Grayson McCall had 322 yards and four TD's last week. Last year CC allowed 33.2 PPG, this season it's conceding just 22.3. The pick: UL Lafayette hasn't played since September 26th because of Covid issues. The Ragin Cajuns went 11-3 last year and they're 3-0 this season. In their last game they held on for a 20-18 victory over Georgia Southern. GSU had 447 yards of offense, including 192 on the ground. Overall the Cajuns average 28.3 PPG this season. Coastal Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record though and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a straight-up win of more than 20 points, while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contests. Revenge is on CC's mind here and while the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing up the ample points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina. | |||||||
10-12-20 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this series and this opening matchup is a lot more even than what this line would suggest. Both teams have looked dominant to get to this point. The Braves pitching staff looks great and so too does the Dodgers. Fried has struggled against the Dodgers in the past, but that was then and this is now. Fried will be out for revenge here and he's been nearly untouchable all year. The pick: The Dodgers are just as awesome across the board as their counterpart. Buehler and Fried are a "wash" in this matchup. In this evenly matched contest which I foresee being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Braves. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Heat in Game 5 and I think they'll cover here as well. At the very least. The outright win is possible to I believe, but in this case I think the safter route is to grab the points. LA is running low on energy and its role players have been struggling to keep up with Miami's bench production. The Heat have been playing great defensively as well. The pick: Miami has been an ATS covering machine in the playoffs, and LA is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the Eastern Conference. Anthony Davis is hampered by injuries and the Heat can smell the blood in the water. As stated above, I think the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* SIDE BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Two contrasting styles of play here, as Indianapolis gets the job done with defense, while the Browns try to run their opponents off the field with their high-powered offense. The Colts are averaging 25.8 PPG and they're allowing 14. The Browns are averaging 31.0 and they're conceding 31.5. The pick: But Cleveland has averaged 39.3 PPG over its last three and this offense is firing on all cylinders. The Colts will have their hands full with Nick Chubb and this Browns rushing game which leads the NFL. Baker Mayfield is dual threat himself. I think this is a big opportunity for Cleveland's defense as well, as the Colts don't ask Philip Rivers to ever do too much. I'm all over Cleveland in this one. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans -5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: Jacksonville somehow upset the Colts in Week 1, but it's since gone 0-3 since that victory. The Texans clearly enter as the hungrier team, as they're 0-4 and they just finished firing their general manager and head coach in Bill O'Brien. The Texans have played four straight tough defenses, but now they face one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Houston's JJ Watt is furious right now and he'll be taking it upon himself to lead the unit on that side of the field. The combination of DeShaun Watson and David Johnson will be just too much for Gardner Minshew and this undermanned Jaguars team to keep up with down the stretch. The pick: Note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU/ATS losses as well. I think the coaching change finally wakes up Watson and company and I expect this one to be a rout from start to finish. Lay the points. This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Houston Texans. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Cardinals v. Jets +7.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Arizona is overhyped and it's clearly dealing with chemistry issues. Sam Darnold is probably better than Joe Flacco, but the Jets defense is going to have its opportunities today. So far New York has seven picks and six sacks through four games. The pick: The Cardinals just lost to the Panthers, so to try and pretend they don't have issues across all three phases would be a mistake as well. Last week Arizona had zero sacks vs. Teddy Bridgewater. Arizona admittedly has the better talent, but that talent is having big chemistry issues. The Jets are the desperate and winless home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come right down to the wire. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Jets. | |||||||
10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Heat will take the Lakers down to the wire at the very least in Game 5. LA's bench players have to be feeling pretty nervous right now, as the hardest thing to do in the playoffs is to close out a team and win a championship. Miami clearly won't be rolling over here. LeBron James came back from a 3-1 deficit with the Cavaliers in the Finals to beat the Warriors. Eric Spolestra has been great at making game-to-game adjustments and he'll have something prepared tonight for his team as they try to avoid elimination. The pick: LA is still just 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 99 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. These teams are exhausted, both mentally and physically at this point, but all signs point to another battle until the end in Game 5. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Miami Heat. | |||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: If you want an ESPN summary of what each individual player did in Game 3, then go to ESPN. If you're wagering on this contest, cleary you're familar with the cast of characters and the overall storyline. I'm here to tell you why I think the Lakers are going to streamroll the Heat in Game 4. LeBron James looked like a moron leaving the court early and he knows that the one thing that cures everything is "winning." When the Lakers big men assert themselves, the Heat have no answers and that's exactly what I expect to see happen here. Jimmy Butler was amazing in Game 3, but there's on way he can duplicate that effort again here. The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. No need to overanalyze in my opinion, as this one has "beatdown" written all over it. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers. | |||||||
10-05-20 | Astros +1.5 v. A's | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: The A's won seven of ten in the regular season series between these clubs, but I like the Astros to take Game 1. For the fourth straight season and fifth in the last six years, Houston is in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. (3-3, 3.93) was the only Houston pitcher that didn't throw in the wildcard round, so he comes very fresh having not hit the hill since September 26th. The pick: The A's won their first playoff series in 14 years and I think they're primed for a classic letdown here. Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 in regular season) who gave up one run over six innings last Wednesday. Note though that Oakland is 1-4 in its last five off a victory and only 1-4 in its last five following a day off, while Houston is 5-0 in its last five playoff games not played in HOuston and 41-10 in its last 51 following a day off. The experience that these Astros players bring to the table is invaluable at this point. Outright win is possible, but let's lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest which could easily see extra frames. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE! | |||||||
10-04-20 | Giants +14 v. Rams | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 79 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the Giants can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to San Francisco at home, so clearly not many are giving them much of a chance in this one. The Rams are coming off a heart-breaking loss on the road in Buffalo and with a "cream puff" matchup in Washington next weekend, the possibility of them taking the foot off the gas in the second half is big. The pick: The Giants are playing for pride here as they look to get off the schneid. Note that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three straight SU/ATS losses. No outright, but closer than expected. This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Giants. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: New Orleans will look to avoid an 1-3 hole here. The Saints catch a complacent Lions team off an improbable road win in Arizona. The Lions are allowing 30.7 PPG and they're scoring only 23.3. The pick: The Saints are the better team through all three phases here and from a situational stand point, it sets up well for them in the dome at Ford Field, but also note that the Lions are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, while New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the points, expect a blowout. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New Orleans Saints. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Oklahoma -8.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: K-State beat Oklahoma last year as a big underdog, so I definitely thought that the Sooners would be out for revenge this season, but a late meltdown last week led to a second consecutive loss to the Wildcats as a 28 point favorite. Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions, so that obviously didn't help. Iowa State was upset by the Ragin Cajuns two weeks ago, but the Cyclones held on for a 37-34 win over TCU last weekend. I am not going to over-react here to the Sooners "brain fart" last weekend..instead I will look at the positives and expect Oklahoma to bounce back this week. Rattler, while he did throw the three interceptions, he also threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns. It was Rattler's second consecutive four touchdown game. Drake Stoops, son of former coach Bob Stoops caught three passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Sooners looked poor defensively though, they allowed 334 passing yards and did not record a turnover. The pick: Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy had 211 yards passing and one touchdown, while Breece Hall had three rushing touchdowns in the win over the Horned Frogs last weekend. The Cyclones win came at a cost though, as two offensive linemen were lost in Trevor Downing and Robert Hudson. The Iowa State defense was a big of a mixed back, posting seven sacks, but also allowing 400 passing yards. I think that Rattler is going to be able to exploit this and I like the Sooners defense to bounce back after that atrocious fourth quarter last week. I'll finish off by pointing out that Iowa State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following a straight-up victory. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Raiders play with revenge here after falling 30-27 in this game last year. Texas Tech comes in off a tough loss to Texas, but they were a massive underdog and they have to be feeling good about how they played. Now they get to take out their frustrations on a contented K-State team which just upset Oklahoma for the second time in two years as a 28 point underdog. In the end Texas Tech had 441 yards, with QB Alex Bowman throwing for five TDs. The pick: K-State trailed for the first three quarters, but a complete collapse by Oklahoma in the fourth proved to be the difference. It was a surprising result, considering that K-State has several players sidelined with Covid. Skyler Thompson had three rushing TD's and one passing. Both teams took their respective ranked opponents down to the wire, but one came away with the victory, while the other came up JUST short. Give me the hungrier dog in this fight and take the points in the process! This is a 9* 'PLAY-BOOK' on Texas Tech. | |||||||
10-03-20 | South Florida +21.5 v. Cincinnati | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season after beating Army last time out. USF won its first game over Citadel 27-6, before then getting destroyed 52-0 by the Irish. Then last week the Bulls game vs. FAU was postponed due to Covid. South Florida will be running the ball a ton here and I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead" today. The pick: In fact, the Bearcats enjoy their bye-week after this. And finally note that Cincinnati is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back ATS victories. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on South Florida. | |||||||
09-30-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: If you're wagering on this game, then you don't need me to fill you in on these teams strengths and the weaknesses and the cast of characters involved. All of these things are already known even by the most casual NBA fan. Besides, you can go to any sports website to obtain that information. I'm here to tell you why the Heat are going to at the very least, cover with the decent spread they've been afforded here. The pick: The Heat have done well in the playoffs, especially defending the perimeter and in shooting percentage. With a couple of days off to prepare, I think that Eric Spolestra will have a game-plan in place to counter what the Lakers will have in store. Also note that the Heat are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 overall. Miami has been overlooked throughout these playoffs and I think that LA does as well here. That said, grab the points. This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Jets +12.5 v. Colts | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
The set-up: Clearly the Jets are a terrible team, but they come in 0-2 SU/ATS and their season is essentially on the line here. I acknowlege their many issues across all three phases, but one thing we don't have to worry about is New York's resolve and determination today and I think that's significant. Indianapolis has been mediocre thus far and with back-to-back tough road games at CHicago and Cleveland, I think the home side will take the foot off the gas and get caught "looking ahead" as well. The pick: And finally note that: How do NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3: Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%) Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%) This is an 8* DESTROYER on the New York Jets. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Raiders +6 v. Patriots | 20-36 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think many believe that the Raiders will have a "letdown" here after their big Monday Night Football win at home over the Saints, but I don't. I think many also believe that the Patriots are going to explode here after their close setback in Seattle last Sunday night, but I don't. The Patriots looked pretty mediocre at home in their Week 1 win over the Dolphins and I think they'll have their hands full here vs. this Raiders team which is suddenly firing on all cylinders. Derek Carr had 282 yards passing and three TD's, while Josh Jacobs had 88 yards on 27 carries, after running for 93 yards and three TD's in Week 1. The defense has been the weak point, but the offense has a 75 percent success rate in the red zone. The pick: Cam Newton had 397 yards passing vs. the Seahawks last week, but Seattle's defense is a mess. Newton has been great early, but RB Sony Michel has been a no show for the most part, last week he posted 56 yards. Last week the Pats' defense was lit up for 35 points and I believe it'll struggle again here vs. this dynamic Raiders' offenese. I think the Raiders are playing better through all three phases and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this one being a "nail biter." This is an 8* ANNIHILATOR on the Las Vegas Raiders. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 2-0 SU, but Buffalo is 0-2 ATS. Here is a stat which this pick is primarily based upon: How NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3: Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%) Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%) The pick: Additionally note that Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while the Rams are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road when facing a team with a winning record. I think the Rams' inefficiences on the defensive end come back to haunt them here. Lay the points. This is an 8* ATS SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Buffalo Bills. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Titans v. Vikings +3 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 46 m | Show | |
The set-up: The pick: This is an 8* FALSE-FAVORITE on the Minnesota Vikings. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles -4.5 | 23-23 | Loss | -107 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bengals run game is non-existent. Joe Mixon has been terrible. That puts added pressure onto Joe Burrow. The Eagles have also allowed six sacks and there's injury issues for the Bengals on the offensive line. Burrow has been great and he has decent receivers, it's just that the Bengals are entirely too one dimensional and Burrow simply doesn't have the experience yet to handle any of this. The pick: Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS to open the season. Note: How NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3: Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%) Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%) This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Philadelphia Eagles. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Texas v. Texas Tech +17 | Top | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 126 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas won this game last year by a score of 49-24, but I think the stage is set for a much closer battle this time around. The Longhorns are 1-0 after beating UTEP 59-3, and the Red Red Raiders are also 1-0 after beating Houston Baptist by a score of 35-33. Texas is looking to improve upon its 8-5 record from last year. Sam Ehlinger is back under center to direct an offense which averaged 35.2 PPG. The weakness is on the defensive end though, as the unit allowed 27.5 PPG last season. That defense should be improved, but it now clearly faces a much tougher offense this week. The pick: Texas Tech will have its hands full through all three phases, but with QB Alan Bowman under center, I love the Red Raiders chances here. Bowman can keep his team in late. Last year he only played in three games, but he finished with 1,020 yards, six TD's and three INT's in that span. Texas Tech also welcomes back three of its top four receivers, led by KeSean Carter. Yes, the Red Raiders are destined to be terrible defensively again this season (they allowed 600 yards in th ewin over HBU), but the unit does return eight starters, so minor improvement is also expected. The Red Raiders' schedule doesn't easier either with games at K-State and Iowa State up next. Texas on the other hand will get caught "looking ahead" here with a game at home vs. TCU, follow by at Oklahoma, vs. Baylor and at Oklahoma State all on deck next. No outright, but much closer than expected in my opinion. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech. | |||||||
09-24-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6 | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: If not for Anthony Davis's game winning three-point shot in Game 2, this series could be drastically different. Denver predictably came out flat in Game 1 after its second straight seven game series victory, but it's quickly made adjustments and now it's 1-2 after taking Game 3 convincingly. I had a play on LA in Game 1, but I think that Denver now has the "blue-print" to beat LA and while that may or may not in fact happen, in my opinion everything points to another "nail-biter!" The pick: I'll point out as well that LA is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 108 points or less in its previous outing, while Denver is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after scoring 114 points or more in a win in their last outing. This is a 10* GAME 4 BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Nuggets. | |||||||
09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -125 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is now 0-2 after a tough 31-28 setback at home to the Bills. The Dolphins looked good at times in that loss and pretty poor in others. Miami didn't look great in New England either in Week 1, losing 21-11. The Dolphins have the Seahawks at home next weekend, but they'll have to be careful to not look past this potentially dangerous Jaguars team, who I think will actually find a way to get the job done again here. Jacksonville is just 1-1 straight up, but it's so far 2-0 against the spread. The Jags upset the Colts 27-20 at home in Week 1, before then falling 33-30 to Tennessee in Week 2. The Jags allowed four TD passes to Ryan Tannehill, but QB Gardner Minshew continues to be competitive each week. Last week Minshew was 30 of 45 for 339 yards, three TD's and two INT's. And with two straight difficult road games at Cinncinati and Houston respectively, this is a game which the lowly Jaguars would have had circled on their calendar before the season started as a "winnable" one. The pick: Miami's schedule is a difficult and I think it very well could have already thrown in the towel on the season. After the Seahawks at home next week it then has two on the road at San Francisco and Denver, followed by home games vs. the Chargers and Rams and then another road game at Arizona before then finally catching a break with back-to-back games vs. the Jets. Let's face it...neither of these teams is going to be in the playoffs, but I think that Minshew and the Jaguars are playing better through all three phases right now and despite no fans in the stands, I think they benefit greatly here in playing at home. The Jaguars are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five overall, while Miami is a pitiful 7-15 ATS in its last 22 on the road (and just 2-14 straight up in its last 16 away from friendly confines.) This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Jacksonville Jaguars. | |||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nuggets have the Lakers right where they want them! That's the "joke" right now after Denver has come back from consecutive 3-1 deficits to win their last two series in seven games. The Lakers look like the better team to this point, but they got a huge shot from Anthony Davis to win Game 2. If he misses that one, who knows how Game 2 ends. Regardless, after getting blown out in Game 1 the Nuggets clearly made adjustments to counter LA and it almost worked. I think Denver's ability to adapt and make adjustments on the fly is its greatest strength and I believe it could in fact help it come out on top outright here. The pick: Note as well that the Nuggets are 7-1 in their last eight games when trailing in a playoff series, while the Lakers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series as the favorite. I'm not counting out the Nuggets quite yet. That said, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Denver Nuggets. | |||||||
09-22-20 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks got spanked 11-5 yesterday by a desperate Jays team, but I think New York will bounce back in fine fashion here with its ace on the mound and with a chance to deal another fatal blow to its division rivals playoff hopes. Gerritt Cole (6-3, 3.00 ERA) dominated the Jays on Tuesday, holding them to one run and three hits while striking out eight over seven innings. Cole is now 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA in three career outings vs. the Blue Jays. The pick: Tanner Roark (2-2, 6.41) has conceded eight runs in eight frames of work vs. the Yanks this season, including allowing six home runs. Overall he's a poor 1-2 with a 5.75 ERA. This is going to have a "playoff-like atmosphere" and as such, I look for elite level Cole to easily dominate the "gas can" Roark. Lay the 1.5 runs and the price and expect an epic lop-sided victory for the visitors. This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees. | |||||||
09-21-20 | Saints -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Drew Brees and company to lay the hammer down in the new Las Vegas stadium. The Saints beat the Bucs 34-23 last weekend. Drew Brees had 180 yards passing and two TD's. TE Jared Cook had five receptions for 80 yards. The defense allowed 310 yards total, including 224 through the air. The Saints though sacked Tom Brady three times, while also posting two interceptions. The Raiders beat the Panthers on the road 34-30. Oakland posted 372 yards of offense, with Dereck Carr posting 239 yards and one TD. The Raiders though allowed 388 total yards of offense to a pretty terrible Carolina team. The pick: Note as well that the Raiders are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 following a SU win and only 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting more than 350 total yards in their previous outing. The Saints though are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a favorite and I think their depth across all three phases will be too much for Carr and company to keep up to down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the New Orleans Saints. | |||||||
09-21-20 | Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 5-0 | Win | 107 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs have lost two in a row, but they have four straight winnable contests here vs. the Pirates and I think they most of it. Especially considering they have a tough three game series at the White Sox to end the regular season. The Cubs actually still have an opportunity to lock down the No. 2 spot in the entire National League as they're in a race with the Braves right now. The pick: Jon Lester is having an overall poor campaign, but he's throwing his best of the year at this very moment, off back-to-back strong outings in which he's allowed two runs over 11 innings of work. He's had plenty of success vs. the Pirates throughout his career and I think he'll get the better of JT Brubaker. Brubaker faced the Cubs earlier in the season and had success, but regression seems imminent the second time around. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish. This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE WEEK on the Chicago Cubs. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Lakers in Game 1 and I think they now have the blue-print to sweep this Denver team in four. The Nuggets come off back-to-back seven game series where they had to dig themselves out of a 3-1 hole. It's an emotional game and I think that Denver is out of gas and it's "magic" has run out. The Lakers started slowly in the first quarter in Game 1, but then a quick adjustment saw them dominate the rest of the way, especially defensively. The pick: Nikola Jokic is going to have a heck of a time slowing down Anthony Davis, who I expect to once again have a big game here. The Lakers are too tough defensively for Jamal Murray to operate effectively either. I'm laying the points and expecting another blowout from start to finish. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers +10 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 122 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Chiefs have had a few extra days off after they crushed the Texans on the Opening Thursday night and I don't think that's working in their favor. The Chiefs I think will also get caught "looking ahead" here to their big game at Baltimore next week. The pick: The Chargers did just enough to win a tough game vs. the Bengals in Week 1, but after the way Cincinnati played in Cleveland on Thursday in Week 2, it does make LA's defense look a lot better going into this matchup. And with a "cream puff" at home vs. Carolina next week, the Chargers are able to put their full focus onto their division rival. I think Tyrod Taylor controls this one while the Chargers are on offense and I love the home side to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the LA Chargers. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Jaguars +10 v. Titans | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Titans are coming off a thrilling last second win on Monday Night Football in Denver, prevailing 16-14. The Titans failed to cover the spread and I think they're going to have a difficult time covering this large number as well. Jacksonville was a huge dog at home to Indianpolis, but Gardner Minshew and company ended up winning outright. Minshew is an interesting character and he'll be trying to make the most of every opportunity he's given. The pick: Tennessee was sloppy in its win last week and it also missed three field goals. RB Derrick Henry was pedestrian, as was QB Ryan Tannehill. And hanging your hat on the fact that the defense only allowed 14 points to a decimated Broncos' offense is nothing to be proud of in my opinion. The Jags aren't going to go down without a fight here and I look for them to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT On the Jacksonville Jaguars. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Giants v. Bears -4.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -104 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Bears can build off their big fourth quarter last week. The Giants though looked inept vs. the Steelers in their 26-16 setback at home on Monday though and I think they'll struggle again here on the short week. QB Daniel Jones had 279 yards passing and two TD's. The defense allowed 229 passing yards and 113 rushing. The pick: The Bears overcame a 17 point second half deficit to get an impressive win in Detroit last SUnday. QB Mitch Trubisky had 242 passing yards and three TD's. Chicago allowed 288 yards passing, but I think the unit can improve at home here vs. Jones, who is down a few key pieces. Note as well that the Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home vs. teams with losing records, while New York is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. clubs with winning records. Lay the points, expect a blowout! This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Bears. | |||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Obviously you can't count out the Nuggets in any situation, however I'm definitely going to do just that in Game 1. Denver has a reputation now of being quite the survivor after back-to-back series of having to climb out of a 1-3 hole. The Lakers though are rested and they have the big men in their line-up to easily handle Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. With Jokic neutralized, the savvy veteran guards of the Lakers are going to be able to operate and make it difficult for Jamal Murray to get any open looks. This is an extremely poor matchup for Denver, which has no answer for LeBron James. The pick: LA is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after four or more days of rest. I think the back-to-back seven games series comes back to fatigue Denver and I love the Lakers to finally get out to a big start in a playoff series in the bubble with a commanding full four quarter effort. I'm laying the points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT on the LA Lakers. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 58 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Over-reaction after Week 1 is a major issue for casual bettors. The Browns got destroyed on the road in Baltimore in their first game of the year and the pundits are already out and ready to crucify them. The Bengals were put in a position to win my rookie QB Joe Burrow in their Week 1 loss to the Chargers, but a missed FG at the end of the game cost the team the OT chance. Granted, the Browns looked bad, but I'm not going to read too much into that performance, because even if Cleveland had been "firing on all cylinders," it wasn't likely going to win that game anyways. And the Browns knew that. In fact, I'd argue that they used it almost as a pre-season warm-up and I expect a much stronger performance from Baker Mayfield and company in Week 2. The pick: It's asking a lot of this young QB to now go on the road and try to win this "Battle of Ohio" vs. this desparate and veteran Browns club. I think Burrow is going to be in for a surprise tonight when he sees how difficult this Browns defense is on its home field. Additionally note that Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring six points or less and allowing 30 points or more in a loss in its last outing. Lay the points! This is a 10* TOUCH-DOWN on the Cleveland Browns. | |||||||
09-15-20 | Heat +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 80 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel that these teams are very evenly matched. And these two teams are. Both have great coaches and each is filled with talent that can put the ball in the hoop. Each is also extremely committed to the defensive side of things. So why will Miami win/cover in Game 1? I believe for sure that the few extra days off after taking care of the Bucks in five games is HUGE right now. The Celtics on the other hand just went through an exhausting seven game series vs. Boston and after that emotional win, I think a letdown here is imminent. The pick: Note that Miami is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with four or more whole days off. As primarily a situational handicapper, this particular one sets up fantastically for the Heat in my opinion. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Miami Heat. | |||||||
09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +7 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -138 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh finished 8-8 last year after QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury in the second game. The Steelers have Big Ben back, but I think Pittsburgh still has many issues to address and resolve before I feel too comfortable in laying a large spread on the road, especially on Opening night. Granted, the Giants have more questions than answers as well, but I still think the pieces are in place for the home side to keep this one competitive. The pick: These teams averaged similar amount of points last year, but the Giants were a train-wreck defensively. New York picked up a few key pieces for the unit this year and I think it has a big opportunity here facing what should be a very "rusty" Roethlisberger. I like the dynamic offensive combination of QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquaon Barkley to at the very least, keep this one close enough for the home side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the New York Giants. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 3021 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Tyrod Taylor starts as QB for the Chargers, while Joe Burrow will be under center for the Bengals. LA has issues with its offensive line, which doesn't look good for Taylor to start the season. The main back in LA is Austin Ekeler, who had 557 yards and three TD's last season. The Chargers' defense was its strength last year, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Bengals' offense which has something to prove in Week 1. The pick: AJ Green is back and ready to put on a show after an injury plagued 2019. RB Joe Mixon had 1,137 yards and five TD's last year. The defense finished ninth overall last year as well. Finally note that the Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Week 1 contests, while the Chargers are a disappointing 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing the role of favorite. While the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can! 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cinncinnati Bengals. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Lightning v. Islanders +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -208 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Islanders in Game 3 and that big underdog pick cashed for us. In Game 4 I'm going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. If you haven't had a chance to read my analysis on that Game 3 victory, I believe it's worth doing so now, as the logic behind that selection for the most part also directly applies to this one: The set-up: New York threw in the "white towel" in its Game 1 loss, in which it was humbled 8-2. The Islanders came out fying in Game 2 and posted an early goal, which held late into the third period. The Lightning then scored with only eight seconds remaining in regulation to win the game. Do I think that the Islanders are going to get swept in this series? I absolutely do not. New York is well coached, it's disciplined, it's deep and it's blessed with World class goaltending. Tampa is the better team on paper and on the ice, but I think it has a mental letdown here vs. this determined and now very desperate Islanders team. The pick: Finally note as well that the Islanders are 8-3 in their last 11 after back-to-back losses. This is essentially "do or die" for the Islanders, as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for it to climb out of. I look for New York to get back into this one with a resounding victory! The pick: In a contest which I think'll come down to the wire (or even be decided in extra time!), I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance! This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the Islanders PUCK LINE. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -7.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 283 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Ravens went 14-2 last year and they're one of the favorites to come out of the AFC this season. The Browns went 6-10, but they're expected to do a bit better thi syear. Cleveland has a new head coach though with a few new systems and I think that's going to translate into early struggles in this difficult road environment. I heard a lot of people suggest that the limited practice time heading up to the regular season would benefit the defenses, but I'll argue that veteran and well oiled offensive units can "flip the script" on that line of thinking and take advantage of defensive units which enter the season a step behind. Cleveland's strength last year was in fact its defense, but I think the unit is going to be in for a long day vs. Jackson and company. The pick: Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 1 games (the Browns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Week 1 games!), while Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six on the road. Baltimore outscored its oppposition by an average of 15.5 points per game last year and all signs point to a similar "rocking chair" victory for it in Week 1 as well. Lay the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Ravens. | |||||||
09-12-20 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State -12.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for Florida State. The Seminoles have endured back-to-back poor seasons under Willie Taggert, but he's out this season and Mike Norvell is in. Norvell was extremely successful as the head coach at Memphis last year, leading it to an AAC title while averaging 40.5 points in the process. Georiga Tech switched up its offense last year under then first year head coach Geoff Collins, but it's hard to imagine this rebuilding visiting side doing much better than it's 3-9 record from 2019. James Graham returns under center for GT, or does he? In fact, as of writing this the Yellowjackets haven't even named their starting QB. GT's defense was one of the worst in the country and while it should improve, it won't be too dramatically. Unfortunately this year GT is being thrown to the wolves this season, without any non-conference "cream-puffs" to warm up on. The pick: FSU has its No. 1 QB back (James Blackmon) and its top receiver in Tamorrian Terry back and ready to prove themselves. The Seminoles were poor defensively last year, but ten of 11 starters are back and I think that spells big trouble for the QB-less Jackets. GT is a "Power 5" team in name only, the product on the field today is going to be a sub-par and I think the Seminoles will take FULL advantage. Lay the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on FSU. | |||||||
09-11-20 | Nuggets +8 v. Clippers | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the "over" in Game 4 and while that came up short, so too did the Nuggets. Denver was down 3-1 to the Jazz in its opening round series, before then posting three straight victories. Anything is possible, but the likliehood of that happening again is very slim. I don't think it's going to happen and Denver may well even lose this game outright, but I absolutely expect the Nuggets to fight hard, risking life and limb today to try and stay alive. LA has gotten fantastic and new flawless play from everyone over the last two games and I think its poised for a bit of a mental "letdown" in Game 5. The pick: Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after being held to 88 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. I expect Denver to push the pace and to at the very least, keep this one close until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets. | |||||||
09-10-20 | Texans +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -130 | 221 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texans are sizeable underdogs on Thursday night, but I think the visitors will be able to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. These two teams played twice last year. The Texans won 31-24 as a 3.5 point underdog in the first game, while the they lost 51-31 in the second (after having a 24-0 lead in the first half!) Houston went 10-6 last year and it now has a new head coach in Bill O'Brien. DeShaun Watson is gone, which is obviously a blow to the offense, but with DeShaun Watson under center and with David Johnson in the backfield and playing with a chip on his shoulder, Houston has a strong foundation to work with on the offensive side of the ball. Note Randall Cobb will have plenty of opportunity this season to fill the void left by Watson. Houston welcomes back defensive juggernaut JJ Watt, who is now fully recovered from his injury which saw him miss eight games last year. The pick: The Chiefs went 12-4 last year en route to the Super Bowl victory. KC is once again favored to win the Super Bowl this year, but after going over it's team O/U total for seven straight years and with a target on its back each and every week and with the most difficult schedule it's faced in a decade, I think that regression is imminent. Winning makes you complacent. Does Patrick Mahomes have the drive and determination that he had before he won the Super Bowl and the biggest contract in sports history? That remains to be seen. I think Houston is filled with talent that won't be rolling over on the national stage. Outright victory? I'm not calling for it, but everything to me points to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans. | |||||||
09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL -14 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes UAB crushed Central Arkansas 45-35 at home last weekend, but I think the Blazers will have a much more difficult time vs. this Hurricanes team which went a sub-par 6-7 last year. Tyler Johnson III is a decent QB and Spencer Brown a good RB, but I believe they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. The pick: Miami fans have a lot to be excited about this season, as D'Eriq King transferred over from Houston. King is a dynamic QB and he's going to want to prove himself here. The Miami Florida defense lost a few starters, but overall the unit remains a strenght of the team. I have a hard time seeing UAB keeping up to King and company down the stretch. Lay the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Florida. | |||||||
09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5.5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston dominated in Game 1, but since then it's been all the Lakers. I think though that Houston is going to give its best shot here to try and get back into this series and while I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The Lakers have used their size well over the last two games, but Houston has done well in this spot for bettors over the year, as note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a ten point or larger loss to an opponent in its last outing. The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a ten points or larger victory in their last outing. I think the desperation level in which the hungry Rockets play with tonight turns out to be the difference maker. Grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Houston Rockets. | |||||||
09-09-20 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Lightning in Game 1 and while I obviously didn't predict such a massive beatdown, obviously I'm going to take it! That said, the playoffs are all about making adjustments and I think that the Isles will calmly turn the page on that awful effort and return to their recent dominant form. Tampa is poised for a mental letdown here and I think the Isles can take advantage. The pick: Note as well that the Islanders are 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing eight or more goals in a loss to an opponent in their last outing. Outright win?! Of course. But in a game which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the ISLANDERS on the PUCK LINE. | |||||||
09-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors +1 | Top | 111-89 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a back and forth series and with a spread like this, obviously the bookmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And I agree. These teams are very similar, filled with talent and deep benches. The advantage that Toronto now has is two-fold though, as not only does it cleraly have the "momentum" back in this series (which I feel is crucial in the playoffs), but it also has the experience. And that's something you can't teach, only earn. The pick: Additionally note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a five points or higher SU/ATS victory in their last outing in the playoffs. Boston is now mentally on the ropes here and I think the defending champs can smell the blood in the water. I'm banking on the Raptors riding the wave of momentum they've created to another solid ATS/SU victory in Game 5. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Raptors. | |||||||
09-06-20 | Bucks +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I don't believe the Bucks are going to get swept. I thought Milwaukee would win this series, but now the odds are against it for that happening. All of that said though, I think the Bucks will finally put together a full four quarter effort here and find a way to avoid getting swept. The Heat have won seven straight, but I think a letdown is inevitable. Miami's defense has been spectacular, but it's shooting percentage seems unsustainable to me over the long-term. The pick: Miami is also just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a five games or longer ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Also note that Milwaukee is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses. Milwaukee plays with pride and pushes this one to a Game 5. The is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks. | |||||||
09-05-20 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta won Game 1 of its double header with the defending champs yesterday 7-1, but then the Nats responded with 10-9 victory in the second. Considering the massive talent discrepancy between these two starting pitchers, I believe that the correct call is to take the Braves on the run line (-1.5), as I'm expecting a complete lop-sided victory for the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.71 ERA), who was shelled for six runs over six innings in a loss to Philly in his last outing. So far Fedde sports a disturbingly poor 10:11 K:BB. The pick: Max Fried (6-0, 1.60) is putting up Cy Young type numbers and while regression at some point is imminent, I do think he'll have more than enough to outduel his inconsistent coounterpart. Over 45 innings Fried owns a sharp 43:14 K:BB. Fried was 17-6 with a 4.02 ERA last year and he definitely also benefits from the friendly confines factor. Look for Fedde to get the hook early and hammer the Braves on the run-line on Saturday! The is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Braves RUN LINE. | |||||||
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: MTSU was 4-8 overall last year, while Army was 5-8. The Black Knights finished third in the country in rushing, as it lacked offensive punch through the air and struggled on the defensive end. MTSU's issues on offense were much bigger though and its inability to sustain drives would then lead to added pressure on the defense. MTSU uses a two QB system, with Asher O'Hara and Chase Cunningham splitting duties. The pick: Army averaged 28.5 PPG and it allowed 23 last season. Christian Anderson is the new QB, who will be leaning heavily upon returning RB Sandon McCoy, who had ten rushing TD's a year ago. MTSU should improve, but I think Army's relentless rushing attack, combined with its superior defense will see it pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. The is a 10* NON-CONF. BLOWOUT on Army. | |||||||
09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Do I think that the Miami Heat are a better team than the Milwaukee Bucks?! Of course not. I'll admit that Miami has definitely played a lot better than the Bucks to this point, but I think that'll finally change in Game 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled Jimmy Butler with no time left on the clock in Game 2 and that's how the Bucks would lose. Clearly Giannis is going to be feeling responsible and I like the back-to-back MVP to come out and dominate in this game. The pick: And that's good news for the rest of the Bucks, who will finally have some room to operate. The Heat have been excellent, they could easily win this series, but I think they finally have a letdown here after playing at such a high-level for such an extended period of time. Milwaukee actually won the rebound battle in Game 2 (50-38). Look for the Bucks to finally hit their stride and lay the points with confidence. The is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Milwaukee Bucks. | |||||||
09-03-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Canucks won Game 5 by a score of 3-1 and while I do think they have a very legitimate shot at taking Game 6 outright as well, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The Canucks have been committed to the defensive end in each of their two victories in this series and I expect a duplicate game-plan here. The pick: Other than experience, Las Vegas and Vancouver matchup extremely well on paper. I think the value is on this hungry underdog side. All signs point to this one being a nail-biter, so grab the 1.5 goals. The is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Canucks PUCK LINE. | |||||||
09-03-20 | Nuggets +8 v. Clippers | 97-120 | Loss | -101 | 34 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Nuggets made adjustments against the Jazz and won three straight. Denver did it by domianting defensively and getting great play from star players Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. I think the "momentum" that Denver has created is a real, tangible factor and I believe it'll ride that wave to another solid performance here against the Clippers. LA also got better in its series vs. the Mavericks, but it was far from perfect. I also don't think the exrta few days off will help in LA's chemistry, which it was definitely lacking at times vs. Dallas. Denver on the other hand is firing on all cylinders at the most opportune of times and I think that definitely matters here. The pick: Note as well that Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after holding its previous opponent to 80 points or less, while LA is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-days or longer break between games. This spread is a little large in my opinion. The is an 8* ROUT on the Denver Nuggets. | |||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: South Alabama was just 2-8 last year, but with QB Desmond Trotter back under center, along with most of the defensive unit, the Jaguars are expected to take a big step forward. Trogger had 820 yards passing with eight touchdowns and two interceptions in seven games. Four starters return to the offensive line as well. Trotter also has six of the Jag's top seven receivers returning. Also seven of the top eight defenders return. The pick: Southern Miss was 7-6 last year and senior QB Jack Abraham is back after completing nearly 68 percent of his chances, with 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Abraham though lost five of his top seven pass receivers, and while the defense will be a strength of the team, the questions marks on the other side of the ball are a concern to open the season in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama. | |||||||
09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Thunder will have trouble keeping up with James Harden and company. The Beard is about to take over this game in my opinion and I don't think that Chris Paul and his supporting cast will have what it takes to win a third straight in this series. The pick: This one sets up great from a trend based stand point as well, as note that Houston is still 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600, while OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU/ATS victory. I'm laying the points and expecting a dominant victory from start to finish. The is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets. | |||||||
09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets -1 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Nuggets have won the last two games of this series and I believe the "momentum" they've created is very real. Behind the spectacular play of Jamal Murray, the Nuggets now have a chance to move onto the next round. Utah is going to be so worried about Murray now, that finally center Nikola Jokic is going to have room to operate here. With no crowd, "momentum" is a very real, tangible factor in the bubble and the Nuggets have all of it right now. The pick: Note as well that Utah is a poor 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss, while Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Bank on the Nuggets delivering in the clutch! The is a an 8* ANNIHILATION on the Denver Nuggets. | |||||||
08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder have looked great in this series at times and poor in others. The same can be said of the Rockets as well. Russell Westbrook only had 7 points for Houston last time out, but the Rockets still dominated from start to finish. Whether Westbrook has a better game or not, I still think that the Thunder will once again "dig deep" here (just like they did in Game's 1 and 2). Individual player matchups or coaching stratgies are meaningless at this point in my opinion, as the Thunder did in fact dominate this series during the regular season. These teams are evenly matched and I'm expecting a battle until the final horn. The pick: Note as well that that Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight following a 30-points or greater loss in their previous outing. Expect OKC to dictate the tempo today and while I wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm grabbing the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Thunder. | |||||||
08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether Kristaps Porzingis plays or not, I like Dallas to at the very least, keep this one close enough to easily cover with the large spread that it's been afforded here. The extra time off because of the BLM movement will definitely help in healing up Mavericks' star Luca Doncic's knee as well. Each team has looked great in this series and pedestrian at other times. Bottom line is though is that I feel that they're very evenly matched. The pick: Dallas is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in its previous outing. Expect Doncic to put the Mavs on his back and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. | |||||||
08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Orlando is getting a lot of points here. The Magic won Game 1 outright, but since then it's gone 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the surging Bucks. Do I think that the Magic are going to win this contest outright? I do not. Note though that Orlando has been just a single 3-point shot away in each of the last three games to actually cover the spread. And now it's getting more points in Game 5 than in any other to this point. The pick: The strengths and weaknesses are well known for each side, but note that the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win, while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss. Orlando's players are playing for a position on the team next year and I don't expect it to go down without a fight tonight. Grab the points. This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic. | |||||||
08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: It's do or die for the Nuggets. The Jazz have looked great over their last two games, but I think Utah doesn't have that "killer instinct" in it and I look for it to struggle against this desperate Nuggets side. The Nuggets got 50 points from Jamal Murray in the 129-127 Game 4 setback. The pick: Utah shot almost 60% from the field in Game 4 and I simply don't see that happening again either. Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous game, while the Jazz are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $759 |
Joey Tron | $580 |
William Burns | $483 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Tom Macrina | $468 |
Jesse Schule | $466 |
Matt Fargo | $398 |
Big Al McMordie | $324 |
Ricky Tran | $258 |
AAA Sports | $229 |