Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
10* Texas (4:05 ET): Seattle has now won 12 in a row, but they were very fortunate to win Friday (rallied back from a 5-1 deficit to win 6-5) and I just don’t see them sweeping the series. Half of the 12 straight victories have been by one run. Last night did see them roll to an 8-3 triumph, but again, it was a one-run game entering the eighth inning. Look for the Rangers to end their division rival’s win streak on Saturday. I think Seattle starter Logan Gilbert is a bit fortunate to have a 3-0 team start record in his L3 starts. He doesn’t have any quality starts during that stretch, twice allowing four runs in a game and he’s also allowed four home runs in the three games. He has just eight quality starts all season and the last one came nearly a month ago. Honestly, Gilbert just feels “due” to drop a decision. I don’t think Texas is a bad team, despite being six games under .500. They’ve scored more runs than they’ve allowed this season. This will be just the fourth start for Spencer Howard, but the last one was the best as he went five innings and allowed just two runs. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here. I’m simply not a believer in the Mariners. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-16-22 | White Sox v. Twins -111 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
9* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The White Sox have come in and surprisingly beaten the Twins each of the first two games here in Minnesota and done so in shockingly easy fashion, winning by scores of 12-2 and 6-2. But do not look for lightning to strike for a third time on Saturday. Not with Lance Lynn starting for Chicago. He has a 7.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his L3 starts and quite frankly his numbers over the course of the full season aren’t a whole heck of a lot better. The White Sox are now back at .500 thanks to their current four-game win streak, but have still been outscored this season (by 22 runs). Don’t tell that to the Twins though as they have seen their lead in the AL Central shrink to 2.5 games over Cleveland and 3 games over Chicago. But the Twins also have, clearly, the best run differential (+36) and remain the team to beat in my eyes. They have only lost to the same team three straight times on two different occasions this year. Dylan Bundy is a good starter for Minnesota, at least at home where he has a 2.10 ERA and 0.935 WHIP. He’s also pretty good when facing the White Sox. Twice this season he’s toed the rubber against them and both times the Twins won. Bundy has allowed just one run and seven hits over 10 innings. Lynn allowed five runs when he faced the Twins earlier this month and was lucky to escape with a no-decision. In his most recent start, Lynn allowed eight runs over four innings. 9* Minnesota | |||||||
07-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins -154 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -154 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
10* Miami (6:40 ET): The Marlins played yesterday (while the Phillies did not), but I’m still backing the home team with Alcantara on the mound. The NL Cy Young frontrunner certainly negates any scheduling “disadvantage” the home team may face here, even if his teammates have had to go to extra innings each of the last two days to pick up a pair of victories. The Phillies, meanwhile, have now lost four in a row after dropping a couple games in Toronto. In seven previous games vs. Miami, the Phillies have scored three or less runs five times. Facing Alcantara, that number is likely to grow to six. Alcantara has had an incredible first half. Through 18 starts, he is 9-3 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Only one time has he allowed more than two earned runs. Lately, Alcantara has been particularly filthy. After tossing a complete game against St. Louis on 6/29, he hasn’t allowed any runs in either of his last two starts, which have spanned 15 innings. Earlier this year, he went 7 ⅔ innings against these Phillies and gave up only two runs. While Alcantara did not get the win that day (Marlins lost 3-2), it was the eighth time in 12 career starts vs. Philly that he allowed 2 ER or fewer. Now it would be nice if this Miami offense got going. The team’s numbers at the plate have been pretty bad, but today they are facing Kyle Gibson and he is not only winless on the road, but has a 7.24 ERA over his L3 starts. Now Gibson did bounce back nicely his last time out (after B2B bad outings), but I can’t see him outdueling Alcantara here. I realize that FIVE of Miami’s last six victories have come beyond the ninth inning, but this is a team that’s better than its record (positive run differential) and they’ve got the NL’s top pitcher on the mound today. 10* Miami | |||||||
07-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -111 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): Entering Thursday, it’s the Mariners and Orioles that share the distinction of being the hottest team in baseball. Think about that sentence for a moment. Both clubs have won 10 in a row. Coming into 2022, I pegged the Mariners for regression after they were able to win 90 games last season despite a -51 run differential. So, to say I’m surprised with their recent results would be putting it mildly. I’ll point out that they have faced arguably the worst teams in baseball (Oakland, Washington) during this win streak and that half of the victories have come by one run. I believe tonight’s a great spot to fade them. Though they were off the previous two days, Seattle had to play a doubleheader yesterday in D.C. So the schedule doesn’t set up well for them heading into Arlington where they’ll have to face Martin Perez in the series opener. The Rangers are 6-0 in Perez’s last six starts despite some shaky outings from the lefty during that stretch. Perez allowed six runs in his last start, but the team still ended up beating Minnesota 9-7. I’m not concerned about the subpar start, however. That’s because Perez has a 2.72 ERA on the season and has allowed 1 or 0 ER in 10 of his 17 starts. He’s actually been the most profitable pitcher to bet on (+10.6 units) in the first half of the season. Another reason I’m fading the Mariners here is because they have Marco Gonzales starting. Gonzales should be set for some serious regression as he has the highest FIP of any qualified starter! His strikeout rate this season is actually a career-low. Even with Gonzales’ better than expected numbers, the team has lost 11 of his 17 starts. Here he faces a Texas team that is averaging more than six runs per game over the last week. The Rangers should have a better record (as they have a positive run differential). Four of Seattle’s wins during this 10-game run were 2-1 finals. That seems unsustainable. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-14-22 | Red Sox +120 v. Rays | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
9* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox are facing the prospect of getting swept, having lost each of the L3 days here in Tampa. That’s not a position I would have expected them to be in, although yesterday the visitors were at a clear disadvantage facing Shane McClanahan. A troubling sign for Boston in the loaded AL East is that they have yet to win a single division series all season (0-9-1) and have an 11-23 record against the other four teams. But I do expect them to avoid the sweep here. I believe them to be a better team than the Rays. It wasn’t that long ago that Boston had a top five run differential in all of baseball. I played Kutter Crawford (great name for a pitcher) in his last start. The Red Sox righty gave up just one run and four hits over five innings and the team ended up getting the 6-5 win (as a big underdog) against the Yankees. The Rays are averaging only 4.0 rpg at home this season, so just a little offense is all the road team needs here. They have the same number of hits as the Rays the L2 days. It is very nonsensical to me to see the Red Sox struggling so mightily in division contests. Since they can’t have McClanahan on the mound again tonight, Tampa Bay will instead be turning to Dean Rasmussen. While Rasmussen’s numbers are solid, particularly at home, something to keep in mind is that he rarely pitches deep into games. He’s averaged just 4 ⅓ innings in his L3 starts and there have been only three times all season that Rasmussen has made it past the fifth. The Red Sox had the highest team batting average in the league coming into this series while Tampa Bay’s lineup continues to deal with multiple injuries. 9* Boston | |||||||
07-13-22 | Astros v. Angels -111 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (9:38 ET): I cashed the Angels last night, using the run line (+1.5) to my advantage. For tonight’s game, that particular luxury isn’t available. However, that’s okay as we’ve got Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The last month or so has been pretty brutal in Anaheim, but whenever Ohtani pitches, things seem to go well for the team. They are 5-0 over his L5 starts and Ohtani hasn’t even allowed a single run over the last four! I know that the current state of the two teams makes playing the Angels seem a bit “dicey,” but Ohtani is an absolute difference-maker. Now the Angels almost stole last night’s game - despite managing only two hits. They rallied for four runs in the bottom of the seventh to tie things up. Incredibly, the Angels would benefit from two Houston errors, a hit batter with the bases loaded and a passed ball. I realize that’s not a recipe for consistent success and that Mike Trout left the game with back spasms. Nevertheless, Trout had been in a slump anyway and I still see the Angels getting to Houston starter Cristian Javier, who allowed three home runs and five runs total (against Kansas City!) in his most recent start. Ohtani is working on a streak of 28 ⅔ scoreless innings. He has 34 strikeouts over his L3 starts and has allowed only 12 hits during the scoreless streak. All things considered, this is a ridiculously cheap price on the Japanese superstar. The Angels are now 0-4 this month vs. the Astros, but I like it when the revenge angle (for a previous sweep) is in play, especially in a division matchup. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
07-13-22 | Pirates v. Marlins -164 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
6* Miami (6:40 ET): I’ve previously written, as recently as last Saturday, that it’s quite rare to see a team get swept at home in a four-game series. Yet that dubious fate is awaiting Miami if they don’t win in the next two days. They’ve allowed the Pirates (of all teams!) to come in and take the first two games of this four-game set, 5-1 and 3-2, both times as sizable underdogs. Pittsburgh has now won four in a row (a season-high), but I wouldn’t count on the team with the second worst run differential in all of baseball (-124) to keep winning. Not with Pablo Lopez set to take the mound on Wednesday. Lopez has a 2.63 ERA and 0.976 WHIP here at home. His last three starts have all come on the road, but the last two were successful as he downed both Washington and the Mets, the former with a quality start and the latter by holding them to one run in five innings. Pittsburgh is not a strong offensive club by any means as they come in averaging just 3.4 runs per game on the road with a .217 batting average. Now Miami will need to get its own offense going after scoring just 21 total runs its last nine games. They’ve still managed to win four times in that stretch, mind you, and I don’t think it’s going to take a ton of runs to win today. Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker only made it through five innings (tying a season-low) in his last start and the team lost 4-3 to the Brewers, dropping Brubaker’s record for the year to 2-8 in 17 starts. He’s 0-6 on the road and furthermore the Bucs are 12-40 in the third game of a series, going back to last season. The Marlins happen to be a perfect 6-0 L6 after dropping the first two games of a series. 6* Miami | |||||||
07-12-22 | Tigers +111 v. Royals | Top | 7-5 | Win | 111 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Detroit (8:10 ET): The Tigers, who are a bottom six team in all of baseball, have won more games than they should have this season. That statement is based on their run differential (-96), which says this 36-51 outfit has actually played to the level of a 31-win team so far. However, after being swept in Monday’s doubleheader here in KC, this is a good spot to take the Tigers. The Royals are a bottom four team in all of baseball and have not won four games in a row (which they are vying to do here) all season. I also believe that the Tigers happen to own a substantial edge in tonight’s starting pitching matchup. It will be Beau Brieske going for the visitors on Tuesday. Brieske is coming off B2B quality outings, including 6 ⅓ shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. the White Sox his last time out. It was the second time in his last five starts that Brieske went six-plus innings and didn’t give up a run. Interestingly enough, the first of the B2B quality starts we’ve seen from him came against the Royals, who he held to three runs over six innings. That was in Detroit, but there’s no need to worry about KC improving much offensively here as they came into yesterday’s twinbill averaging only 3.5 runs per game at home. Now the Tigers must get their offense going after managing just four runs in the two games Monday. Offense has been a problem all year as they are 29th (second worst) in almost all major categories (with Oakland being the worst). But facing Kris Bubic here may be what the Tigers need to get rolling at the plate. Bubic is just 1-6 in 12 starts and he has a 6.99 ERA and 1.888 WHIP. At home, those numbers get even worse. Bubic has yet to even win a decision at home. He came out on the losing end opposite Brieske in that last series between the teams. Given this pitching matchup, the likelihood of the Royals winning again is small. 10* Detroit | |||||||
07-11-22 | Padres -142 v. Rockies | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
9* San Diego (8:40 ET): The Padres got humiliated on Sunday, losing to the Giants (at home) by a score of 12-0. That was the 8th time in the last 10 games that SD failed to score more than two runs. But moving away home, I expect to see the Padres start to score more. First off, they are averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road compared to 3.6 at Petco Park. I can’t imagine there’s another team with a bigger road vs. home split when it comes to scoring. Secondly, the Padres are traveling to Coors Field on Monday. Typically a haven for visitors scoring, Rockies’ opponents are averaging 5.6 rpg this season at Coors. Now, the Rockies are leading the league in runs scored at home with 5.8 per game. Plus they swept the Padres here last month. They’ve in fact won five straight in this NL West rivalry. But such was the case for the Padres against the Giants until the last two days. It’s very hard to keep beating the same opponent, time after time, especially when it’s a division foe. The Rockies did just take three of four in Arizona over the weekend, but it’s not like they’re some great team. They remain 10 games below .500 with a -78 YTD run differential. San Diego is 10.5 games ahead of them and in Wild Card position. Starting here for the Padres will be Sean Manaea, who actually has better numbers on the road than at home. Manaea is coming off his shortest outing of ‘22 (3 ⅓ IP), but look for him to bounce back as there’d previously been only two other times where he failed to last six innings. He has 11 quality starts and a 7-4 TSR when you take away daytime starts. Going for Colorado will be Jose Urena, who made his first start of the season last week (against the Dodgers). While it went relatively well, Urena had more walks than strikeouts and the Rockies still lost. The team has lost 14 of its last 20 series openers. 9* San Diego | |||||||
07-11-22 | Mets +108 v. Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 108 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:20 ET): The top two teams in the NL East are set to collide for three games in Atlanta this week. The Mets’ lead in the division is down to 1.5 games and that’s the last thing their fanbase wants to hear after the way last season went down. I wrote yesterday that the Mets have experienced a bit of good fortune in racing out to MLB’s fourth best record as they had been a perfect 6-0 in extra inning games. Wouldn’t you know? I bet against them Sunday and they lost 2-0 to Miami in 10 innings. But today, they’ve got Max Scherzer on the bump and as an underdog, that’s just too good to pass up. Atlanta just swept Washington and has won six of its last seven games. They were 23-27 at the start of June and are now 52-35. That’s a 29-8 run. But they too went to extras on Sunday, needing 12 innings to get by the Nats 4-3, their second consecutive one-run victory. I respect the Braves, but the Mets are also 25-6 their L31 games after a loss. A situation like this, I see a lot of value on the dogs, particularly with Scherzer pitching. So Scherzer returned to the rotation last Tuesday and couldn’t possibly have pitched any better. In his first start in nearly two months, he went six innings and allowed only two hits (no runs) with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. Shockingly, the Mets still lost the game, 1-0 to Cincinnati. Scherzer has now made nine starts this year and allowed more than 3 ER only once and 1 ER or less six times. Like I said, it’s rare to get him at this price. Atlanta will send out Max Fried, who doesn’t have to take a back seat to many starting pitchers, but I’d still rate Scherzer as being better. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
07-10-22 | Giants +110 v. Padres | Top | 12-0 | Win | 110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:10 ET): The Giants FINALLY broke through with a win against the Padres last night, snapping a five-game losing streak in this NL West rivalry. I had them and it ended up being a 3-1 win. As I wrote in the analysis for Saturday’s game, the Padres have MAJOR issues scoring runs at home as they are averaging 3.6 per game while batting a collective .223 here. Over the last nine games overall, there have been only two instances of the Padres scoring more than two runs. They had just three hits yday and struck out 12 times. With those kind of putrid offensive numbers, how can you NOT like the dog in this one? The Giants have had their own offensive issues of late, including this series where they’ve scored a total of just seven runs. But Carlos Rodon was able to get the job done for them on Saturday and I think today’s starter, Alex Wood, is capable of a similar effort. Wood did have a terrible start last month at Atlanta where he allowed six runs in one inning. But other than that, he’s been quite effective. Last time out, he allowed just one run and four hits in five innings. This is also a great price on Wood as it's only the fourth time in 2022 that he comes in as a money line underdog. San Diego counters with Mackenzie Gore. Similar to Wood, he had a rough stretch last month and has since improved. But the problem for Gore is that he continues to walk a TON of batters. He’s issued at least three free passes in six consecutive starts. So if the Giants’ hitters are patient at the plate this afternoon, they should be able to get on base and score. The Padres only have three wins in their last nine games and with the recent offensive woes, that makes the Giants look very attractive at ‘plus money.’ 9* San Francisco | |||||||
07-10-22 | Twins v. Rangers -113 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
10* Texas (2:35 ET): Coming into this series, I thought the Rangers might play well and sure enough they’ve taken the first two games from the Twins. It was 9-7 last night, but Minnesota got almost all of its runs in one big inning (a six-run fourth). Back on Friday, the Rangers prevailed 6-5, thanks to a six-run inning of their own. This is a team that’s outscored its opponents this season and is deserving of a better won-loss record. On Sunday, Texas hopes to rub off some of its recent good fortune on starter Dane Dunning, who is long overdue a victory, something he last tasted on 4/30 vs. Atlanta. Dunning has certainly pitched well this season here in Arlington where he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.007 WHIP. But that’s translated into just ONE winning decision. He’s 1-1 at Globe Life Park with a 4-4 TSR. Dunning has struggled on the road, but it’s been four straight quality starts at home where he’s allowed just five runs in 25 IP. Dunning is the ONLY pitcher right now to have at least seven quality starts and no more than one victory on the season. He’s due! Now I know that the Twins have not lost four in a row at any point this season, going 3-0 after three consecutive losses. But there’s a first time for everything. Yes, the Twins have blown leads in three straight games, but it is very hard to trust Dylan Bundy when he has a 5.89 ERA and 1.444 WHIP away from home. The Twins are also 1-6 following a game where they scored five runs or more. I look for the Rangers to finish off the sweep here and get Dunning that elusive win. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-10-22 | Guardians -116 v. Royals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (2:10 ET): The Guardians finally broke their long losing streak on Saturday and did so in emphatic fashion, beating the last place Royals 13-1. They collected 23 hits, fourth most in franchise history, and five different players had at least three. For the Royals, it was a bit more dubious history as it was the most hits allowed in a game since 2013. KC did win Friday’s opener in walkoff fashion, 4-3, but they are a bottom five team in the power rankings and up against a tough pitcher today in Zac Plesac. Plesac deserves far better than a 2-6 record. The team is just 6-9 in his 15 starts, but the blame should not go to the pitcher as he has a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Those aren’t awesome numbers by any means, but lately Plesac has been outstanding with a 2.14 ERA and 1.024 WHIP his L7 starts. He’s gone exactly six innings in all seven starts while never allowing more than 3 ER. He allowed 2 ER or less in six of the seven starts. Against Kansas City, Plesac is 6-0 all-time with a 2.29 ERA in 11 starts. The problem for Plesac this season has been lack of run support. The Guardians have scored just six runs total in his last four starts and per FanGraphs, Plesac gets the third worst run support of any starter in baseball. But we saw what the Guardians did at the plate yesterday. They may not be able to duplicate that here, but definitely look for them to score plenty against the washed Zack Greinke, who allowed six runs his last time out. Greinke has also allowed multiple HRs in three of his last five starts. The Guardians are 7-2 their last nine games after scoring 5+ runs. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
07-10-22 | Marlins +112 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
9* Miami (1:40 ET): The Mets may have the fourth best record in baseball, but they’ve had a lot of good fortune go their way. Look no further than last night’s somewhat miraculous 5-4 come from behind win over the Marlins. After tying the game 4-4 in the bottom of the 10th, on Tomas Nido’s RBI double, the Metropolitans scored the winning run on a throwing error by Miami pitcher Tanner Scott. The Mets are now 7-0 this season in games decided in extra innings, easily the best such mark in all of MLB. They were outhit 11-5 in yday’s game! Miami has had the “opposite luck” of the Mets (18 one-run losses - most in MLB). But they have Sandy Alcantara on the bump Sunday and I love this price on the presumed NL Cy Young frontrunner. Alcantara has gone at least seven innings in 11 consecutive starts, which is something that no other pitcher has done since 2016. He deserves far better than a 3-5 career record vs. NY as his ERA (in 12 starts) is 2.96. Overall, Alcantara has a 1.82 ERA and 0.908 WHIP this season. Last time out, he tossed eight shutout innings and had 10 strikeouts with zero walks. That followed a complete game victory at St. Louis. Last night’s game should have never even gone to extra innings. Miami had the bases loaded, with nobody out, in the first inning yet somehow failed to get anyone across the plate. This is a team that has outscored its opponents in 2022. It was a bit of a costly win for the Mets on Saturday as both Starling Marte and James McCann exited with injuries. I know that Mets’ starter Taijuan Walker beat the Marlins twice last night, once opposite Alcantara, and has had a great season in his own right. But this third time will be the charm for the Marlins vs. Walker as they should have won yesterday’s game and the Mets are just 2-9 L11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. 9* Miami | |||||||
07-10-22 | Rays -140 v. Reds | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (1:40 ET): The Reds have shockingly taken the first two games of this three-game set, winning both times in their final at-bat. It was a “balk-off” on Friday (as in they won on a balk) followed by a come from behind effort on Saturday. In what quickly turned into a “lost season” in Cincinnati (team lost 22 of its first 25 games), they’ve actually experienced a bit of good fortune recently with four walk-off wins in the last eight games. But with Shane Baz on the hill Sunday, I think the third time will be the charm for the Rays. Cincy has won four in a row only one other time this season - Memorial Day weekend - when they took two games from the Cubs and then two from the Giants. They have not swept a series all season. Things have stabilized since that brutal start as the Reds have basically been a .500 team over the L2 months. But they are still in the bottom five in my power ratings and have lost money in virtually all situations. This includes day games where they are 13-22. Not only did they have to score twice in the 10th to win yesterday, but they needed a three-run rally in the eighth just to tie the game. Look for Baz to be the difference maker in this series finale. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in four consecutive starts and done so against some of the top teams. The Reds are only hitting .220 over the last week while averaging 3.1 runs per game. Only Washington (who is dead last in my power ratings) has given up more runs this season than Cincinnati. Sunday’s starter for the Reds is Nick Lodolo, who has been steadily improving, but with him yet to make it a full six innings, the Reds’ horrible bullpen will be called upon early. That’s another edge to the visitors, who are the better team and due for a breakout game at the plate. 7* Tampa Bay | |||||||
07-09-22 | Giants -105 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (7:15 ET): The Giants have lost the first two games of the series and five in a row overall to the Padres, going back to the previous series with them (which was at home back in May). Things have taken a bit of a dire turn here in July for the Giants, who finished last season with the best record in all of baseball. They’ve won just once in the last seven games and that was a come from behind effort where they were down four runs early. But with Carlos Rodon on the hill Saturday, I sense that an elusive win is forthcoming. These teams are pretty even in my eyes. The visitors have simply not shown much at the plate in this series, picking up just seven hits in two games. They were still able to force extra innings in the opener on Thursday despite just two hits. Yesterday, the difference in the game ended up being SD scoring three times in the bottom of the first. Rodon should limit what the Padres do early on though as he’s allowed more than two runs in just three of his 16 starts this season. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in half of his starts and held the Padres to two runs and five hits when he faced them on 5/21. San Diego isn’t a strong offensive team at home, averaging just 3.7 rpg and hitting a collective .226. Now the Giants will need to get the bats going here somehow against Yu Darvish. The Padres don’t allow many runs at home and Darvish has a 1.75 ERA/0.734 WHIP here. But Darvish is coming off an outing where he allowed three home runs (to the Dodgers). Darvish should not expect much run support tonight as last night saw the Padres match their highest-scoring effort in the L10 games. They’d previously scored two runs or less in six of seven. It should also be noted that Darvish’s worst start of the season came against the Giants, back in April, as he allowed nine runs in just 1 ⅔ innings. Look for SF to (finally) breakthrough here with a win. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
07-09-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -112 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:10 ET): The Diamondbacks have lost by one run in each of the first two games vs. Colorado, which comes on the heels of them blowing a 4-0 lead and losing to San Francisco. Previous to that, the D’backs had won five of eight. But now they’ve fallen into a last place tie with the Rockies, who have the worst YTD run differential (-72 vs. -45) as well as the fewest number of road wins in the National League (14). As was the case with the White Sox, I just can’t see the home team getting swept this weekend. Arizona had an early lead last (3-1 after the second inning) and didn’t fall behind until the sixth. They had a chance to tie in the bottom of the ninth, but lined out to end the game with a runner on second base. Again, I’ve got to go back to the lack of trustworthiness in the Rockies on the road. They are averaging just 3.0 rpg outside of Coors Field. The dramatic home vs. road split at the plate has defined this franchise throughout its existence. Colorado is still just 6-16 their L22 games off a win while the D’backs have won four of the last five times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. Kyle Freeland had been pitching well for the Rockies until he ran into the Dodgers on Monday. But even after a decent June, Freeland still has a 4.43 ERA and 1.369 WHIP. He’s 3-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 16 previous starts vs. Arizona, who will go with Madison Bumgarner here. MadBum got the win his last time out, as a +170 dog against San Francisco. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in four of his last five starts. In 39 career starts vs. the Rockies, Bumgarner is 18-10 with 3.39 ERA. I cannot see the Rockies winning three in a row on the road as they’ve yet to do that all season. In fact, they have just one three-game win streak of any kind since May 1st. 8* Arizona | |||||||
07-09-22 | Tigers v. White Sox -162 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
7* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): I simply cannot believe that Detroit has now won six in a row. That’s a season-best win streak for the Tigers, who have been outscored by 80 runs and have a Pythagorean win expectation of 31. With five more wins than “expected,” the Tigers are the biggest overachievers in baseball, with the exception of Pittsburgh (who has seven more wins than expected). I know that betting against teams that are “hot” isn’t always the greatest move, but I’m simply NOT a believer in the Tigers. I’m not exactly “in love” with the White Sox either as they too have more wins than you’d expect based on their run differential (-47). But it’s hard for me to see them getting swept at home by Detroit. The White Sox took an early 2-0 lead last night and maintained that through five innings. They ended up with more hits than the Tigers (11 to 8) in yday’s game, but ended up leaving eight runners on base. While the Sox have admittedly struggled at home this season, the Tigers have just 13 road wins to their name, the fewest in baseball. Johnny Cueto starting here for Chicago is a good sign. Not only is he off B2B quality starts, but he’s allowed 3 ER or less each of his last six trips to the mound. Remember that Detroit only averages 2.7 rpg on the road, last in all of MLB. Javier Baez, who has been the Tigers’ hottest hitter, is just 1 for 14 lifetime against Cueto. I know that rookie starter Garrett Hill impressed in his big league debut for the Tigers last week vs. Cleveland, but let’s see him do that again. 7* Chi White Sox | |||||||
07-08-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -158 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
7* Arizona (9:40 ET): Colorado won the series opener last night, 4-3, but we all know they are a bad road team (13-26 record) and thus I think it's unlikely that they’ll win again tonight. Going back to last weekend’s series at Coors Field, the Rockies have now won three in a row over the D’backs. While history did repeat itself from that last series, as Austin Gomber beat Dallas Keuchel last night, again I do not see the same thing occurring here with another pitching rematch of Chad Kuhl vs. Zac Gallen. Colorado won last night’s game on a ninth inning double from Randal Grichuk, which was the only run scored after the fourth inning - for either team. For Arizona, last night marked the second straight loss where they entered the ninth inning tied. They blew a 4-0 lead Wednesday vs. San Francisco here at home, so that’s two very highly disappointing results in a row. But the host D’backs still can “hang their hat” on the fact Colorado’s road record is the worst in all of MLB. Going into yday’s game, the Rockies had lost 9 of 10 away from Coors Field. Also, look for the Rocks to commit an error tonight. They haven’t committed one in any of the last 12 games, tying the franchise record set in 1998, yet still lead all of MLB with 59 errors this season. When Kuhl and Gallen faced off last week, Gallen was the better pitcher as he allowed just three runs and four hits in six innings while Kuhl gave up five runs and seven hits in five innings. Gallen has not lost a decision at home this year (6-2 TSR) thanks in large part to a 0.936 WHIP here. Kuhl has a 7.58 ERA in five career appearances vs. Arizona while Gallen has a 2.38 ERA in nine career starts vs. Colorado. 7* Arizona | |||||||
07-08-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals +103 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Though it’s “only” early July, one could make the case that this is a pretty important series for both playoff hopefuls, one week before the All-Star Break. Only percentage points currently separate the Phillies and Cardinals in the battle for that last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cards did have the upper hand before dropping three of four in Atlanta earlier this week. They’ve also got a pathway into the postseason via the division where they only trail first place Milwaukee by 2.5 games (have the better run differential). With this series being at home, I give the Redbirds the edge in tonight’s opener. Adam Wainwright is the man on the mound for St. Louis here. He’s pitched a lot better at Busch Stadium than on the road in 2022. Wainwright’s ERA and WHIP are 2.25 and 1.136 here where the team has gone 5-2 with him starting. He doesn’t have his usual catcher (Yadier Molina) behind the plate, but Wainwright does own a 3.18 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. Philadelphia. He did lose to them last Sunday, giving up four runs in 5 ⅔ innings, but that was in Philly. This is an immediate revenge spot for Wainwright as he again goes against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler didn’t allow any runs in his 7 IP last Sunday, but his numbers on the road aren’t as good as they are at home this season. In fact, his ERA and WHIP are up to 4.45 and 1.454 respectively outside the City of Brotherly Love. I don’t see Wheeler beating Wainwright two straight times and view the change in home field advantage as being significant. The Cardinals are allowing only 3.7 rpg at home, tied for 7th best in MLB. I think the Cardinals’ bats heat up this weekend while the Phillies’ cool off. It was a big win yday for StL (as +200 ML dogs!). That carries over to today. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
07-08-22 | Rays -156 v. Reds | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (6:40 ET): I truly can’t believe the price we’re getting here on one of the best pitchers in all of baseball going against one of the worst teams. The line should be much higher, even with the Rays being the road team. Their starter Shane McClanahan has a 1.74 ERA and 0.814 WHIP in 16 starts and only seems to be getting better. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and has a streak of 10 consecutive quality starts. He’s allowed 0 or 1 ER in each of the last five starts and now faces a Reds team that’s not only dead last in the NL Central, but also batting only .190 over its L7 games. Further compounding matters here for the home team is the fact that the situation is just terrible for them. They split a doubleheader with fellow division also-ran Pittsburgh yesterday while TB had Thursday off. This is a huge edge to the road team. While Cincy has stabilized somewhat after losing 22 of its first 25 games this season, they firmly remain a bottom five team in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Rays are in second in the tough AL East and looking to strengthen their Wild Card position. They arrive here having won five of six, all on the road, against Toronto and Boston. The Reds will also have their ace, Luis Castillo, on the mound tonight. But they are just 5-6 in his 11 starts and he has a 4.18 ERA at home. Castillo is no match for McClanahan, who not only leads the American League in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ batting average (.179), but is also tied for most strikeouts (133) as well. His aforementioned streak of 10 straight starts going at least six innings and allowing no more than 3 ER also has seen McClanahan strike out at least seven hitters every time. Doing those three things together has only been done three times since 1901 and it’s the longest streak EVER in American League history! Did I mention that McClanahan is 5-0 all-time in interleague starts, including 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA this year? 7* Tampa Bay | |||||||
07-07-22 | Giants +124 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants broke their six-game losing streak last night (and I wasn’t too happy about that) as they came from behind to defeat Arizona 7-5. They now face another division rival, who also happens to be in trouble of late. The Padres have lost 8 of 10 overall and just dropped both games here at home to Seattle earlier in the week. I realize the home team had yesterday off and will be sending Joe Musgrove (2.25 ERA, 0.946 WHIP) to the bump tonight. But I believe the Giants to be the far better value in this NL West matchup. They have revenge for a 3-game sweep (suffered at home) back in May. As good as Musgrove has been for San Diego, don’t underestimate what San Francisco starter Logan Webb has done of late. Webb has a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in his last three starts. That doesn’t even include the seven shutout innings he tossed back on 6/14. Webb is absolutely capable of matching Musgrove in this game. Look no further than an April 13th start where Webb beat the Padres by allowing just one run and four hits over eight innings. He did not pitch in the more recent series where the Giants got swept. San Diego has not hit the ball well recently (.225 L7 games) nor have they done much scoring during that time (2.3 runs per game). They also average just 3.7 rpg (.224 average) at home for the season. Musgrove has been great in 2022, but he’s shown signs of regression recently, namely by giving up five home runs in his last three starts. His ERA is 4.95 in those three starts and the last time he started here at Petco Park, he gave up six runs. Considering recent form and a lack of offense, Musgrove and a day off aren’t going to be enough for the Padres to win tonight. The Giants should come in with some confidence after last night’s come from behind win. Can’t say the same for the opposition. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
07-06-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +118 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
9* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamondbacks came from behind last night (five runs in the bottom of the eighth) to send the Giants to their sixth consecutive defeat. For me, that five-run rally had me sweating the Under, but the D’backs’ bullpen handled its business in the top of the ninth. Now the home team looks to finish off the series sweep and with a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, I think they do it. Merrill Kelly has pitched pretty well this season, in fact you could argue he’s pitching better than he ever has before. Certainly, Kelly is deserving of better than an 8-8 team start record. The D’backs have won four of his last six times out, including the most recent start where Kelly allowed just two runs (one unearned) and five hits over seven innings at Colorado. Kelly’s gone at least six innings in each of his L5 trips to the mound and three of those have seen him allow two runs or less. The Giants’ offense has really been struggling of late with a .202 batting average the last seven games and averaging only 2.6 rpg. This is seemingly a great matchup for Kelly tonight. Alex Cobb starts for the Giants tonight and it’s not been a great 2022 for him. The team has lost each of the last three times he’s started, although that also has to do with lousy run support. Still, Cobb’s ERA on the road this year is 6.41. Arizona has been hitting the ball well of late and the Giants’ bullpen is simply not as good as what we saw last season. Look to last night for all the evidence you need. I think this is a really solid value on the home team considering how poor San Francisco has been recently. 9* Arizona | |||||||
07-06-22 | Twins v. White Sox -103 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox are looking at the prospect of getting swept for a SECOND time by the Twins this season. They are 0-5 head to head vs. the AL Central leaders so far in 2022, which includes 6-3 and 8-2 losses in the first two games of this series. Should be noted that the first game went into extra innings. I’ve said before that the White Sox were outperforming their run differential (now -45) by staying near .500, but the record and run differential are now a bit more “in line.” I do see the home team avoiding the sweep here on Wednesday afternoon behind lefty Lance Lynn. What has been most surprising about the White Sox this season is their poor performance at home. Not only is the club’s record 16-23 at Guaranteed Rate Field, but they’ve been outscored here by 1.8 runs per game! That has to change. Remember that the White Sox came into this series fresh off a sweep of the Giants, out in San Francisco. Lynn has been solid in four starts thus far, particularly the last one where he held the Giants to just three hits over six shutout innings. Lynn is unbeaten in five career starts vs. the Twins with a 2.19 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 29 IP. I thought yesterday’s final score (of 8-2) was misleading in the sense that the two teams had a similar number of hits (12 for the Twins, 10 for the White Sox). The difference in the game was that five of Minnesota’s 12 hits were home runs. Meanwhile, Chicago went 2 for 8 with RISP and left seven men on base. I expect the hitting to come around this afternoon as the White Sox offense has been far more productive in the daytime than in night games. They face Joe Ryan, who has a 4.37 ERA and 4.48 FIP since returning from the injured list. But above all else, it’s just hard for me to fathom the White Sox being swept for a second time by the Twins. 10* Chi White Sox | |||||||
07-05-22 | Cubs +126 v. Brewers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 126 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
9* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): The Cubs thought they were going to steal one on the Fourth of July when Seiya Suzuki hit a go-ahead, inside the park HR in the top of the ninth. Alas, it was not to be. The Cubs’ bullpen could not hold that one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth and then Milwaukee walked-off in the 10th with a Victor Caratini three-run HR. Look for the road team to get its revenge in this division matchup on Tuesday, however. The Brewers had only five hits yesterday and were very lucky to win that game. The Brew Crew lead the NL Central, but it’s worth noting that their run differential (+40) is inferior to that of the second place Cardinals (+62). Do I still think Milwaukee is a playoff team? Probably. But it’s actually been two straight games with just five hits each and it’s hard to keep winning that way. The Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks will be making his fourth start against them this season, so he knows this lineup well and should pitch effectively. Hendricks has won his last two starts, giving up only two runs in 13 ⅓ IP. Prior to losing each of the L2 days in extra innings, the Cubs had won four in a row. I expect that at some point they will move past Pittsburgh into third place in the division. There’s obviously a big gap between the top two and bottom three teams in the Central, but not so much in today’s matchup where the Brewers will have rookie Jason Alexander starting. Opponents are batting .328 off Alexander and he has a 1.642 WHIP. His first career start came against the Cubs (back on 6/1) and the Brewers lost that game (to Hendricks). 9* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-05-22 | Guardians -148 v. Tigers | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
7* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Guardians were swept in Monday’s doubleheader, which is really embarrassing when you consider who they were up against. The Tigers are not good, and should absolutely be ranked among the bottom six teams in all of baseball. They’ve been outscored by almost 100 runs in 79 games, one of the worst differentials in the game. They have played a bit better recently, winning 6 of 10, but a win streak of three games or more is something that’s happened for them only twice all season. Time to fade. What made yesterday’s sweep all the more remarkable is the fact the Tigers started two recent call-ups from Triple A. This is a team that’s used 14 different starters in the rotation this year. Drew Hutchinson, who has split time between Toledo (Triple-A club) and Detroit will make his third start at the big league level today. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in his previous two outings. Neither time saw him go a full five innings and he has more walks than strikeouts. It is hard for me to believe that Cleveland would lose to - essentially - three straight minor league starters. Cal Quantrill goes for the Guardians Tuesday and he’s coming off an outstanding outing where he went eight innings and allowed only three runs. It was his fourth quality start in the last six trips to the mound. Quantrill has a 2.76 ERA in five previous starts vs. Detroit, so it’s a clear edge on the mound for the Guardians. The Tigers also remain the lowest scoring team in the majors (just 3.0 rpg!) and are 29th (next to last) in both slugging and on base percentage. 7* Cleveland | |||||||
07-05-22 | Rays +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
9* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays were shut out in yesterday’s opener, 4-0. They now trail the Red Sox by two games in the AL East but would still be the third in the final Wild Card team for the American League. In fact, all three Wild Cards would be AL East teams were the playoffs to start today. Tampa Bay had won three in a row prior to Monday, all in Toronto, while scoring 24 runs. So I see them bouncing back from yesterday’s disappointing performance at the plate. They’ve got a MUCH stronger starter scheduled to go as well. Finishing yesterday’s game with just two hits, both singles, had to be extremely frustrating for the Rays considering Boston basically went with an opener (Austin Davis) as Alex Cora had to be scratched due to what was termed a “dead arm.” Again, as I said above, the Rays didn’t have any problems scoring in Toronto over the weekend. Today they do have to face Nick Pivetta, who is 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his L11 starts. But Pivetta’s KW ratio isn’t all that great and he has allowed a homer in B2B starts. I’m not convinced he can keep it going. Pitching has generally NOT been a problem for the Rays this season as their staff entered yday with the fourth lowest ERA in all of MLB. But it didn’t work out yesterday, even with opener Jalen Beeks tossing two scoreless innings. The recently recalled Josh Fleming came in and allowed three runs and eight hits. I like the Rays’ chances better today with Jeffrey Springs starting as he has an 8-2 TSR and the team is 5-0 his L5 starts. Springs hasn’t gone since June 24th, when he beat Pittsburgh, as he was dealing with a family medical emergency. So he should be fresh and come out strong on the hill this evening. 9* Tampa Bay | |||||||
07-04-22 | Mariners v. Padres -174 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -174 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
6* San Diego (6:40 ET): Seattle has somehow clawed its way back up into second place in the AL West. They are still three games below .500 mind you. It needs to be pointed out that three of their four series have been against either Oakland or Baltimore, two of the worst teams in the American League. They went 6-1 against the A’s alone. Now it’s a step up in class as they head down the coast to face San Diego in an annual interleague matchup. Last year, the Padres took all three games from the Mariners. They’re a stronger team this year and you should look for the home team to come out ahead in this one. The Padres avoided being swept Sunday, beating the Dodgers 4-2. They were +182 on the money line. Now they get to return home where they’re favored. Opponents are averaging only 3.5 runs per game at Petco Park while batting .209. Starting today for the Padres will be Sean Manaea, who is coming off back to back quality starts. He should have won his last time out, but the bullpen blew a 6-0 lead. Still, in five of his last six starts, Manaea has gone at least six innings and allowed three runs or less. You can count on him in this situation, especially with the Mariners being a pretty weak offensive ballclub. The M’s average just 3.9 runs per game for the year and are below that number the L7 games, despite winning more than they’ve lost. The key has been allowing three runs or less in all but two games. However, I don’t see that happening here as Chris Flexen has a 5-10 TSR and in two career starts vs. SD his ERA is 21.21! Seattle is 3-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season while San Diego is 70-37 L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -250. The Mariners are also just 6-13 vs. lefties this year. 6* San Diego | |||||||
07-04-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +104 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
9* Washington (11:05 AM ET): The Nationals are looking to avoid being swept here, in a four-game series at home no less. They are 1-11 against the Marlins this season. That’s an exceptionally bad record against any opponent, let alone one that’s still three games below .500. I’ve said in the past that Miami is better than its record (they have a positive run differential), but I still can’t see them sweeping a four-game series on the road. Not with an unproven starter on the mound. Yesterday, it did briefly look like Washington might break through. They led 3-2 going into the ninth inning. But it was not to be as Miami scored two in the top of the ninth. After Washington tied it in the bottom of the ninth, the Marlins would eventually win 7-4 in 11 innings. But Miami leaned on its bullpen heavily Sunday and as alluded to above, today’s starter Braxton Garrett is incapable of carrying his team to victory. Having gone a full five innings only one time in five starts, Garrett allowed five runs his last time out and his lone career start against the Nats resulted in a 15-0 loss. Patrick Corbin is one of only two pitchers in all of baseball with double digit losses. His team start record is 4-12, but he is coming off a win as he struck out 12 over eight innings and allowed just one run vs. Pittsburgh. Corbin allowed just 2 ER in six innings when he faced Miami back in April. Truthfully, this is all about the situation as I’m a big believer that home teams are unlikely to be swept in four-game series at home, no matter who they are. 9* Washington | |||||||
07-03-22 | Cardinals +141 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
9* St. Louis (7:30 ET): I just don’t think that the moneyline should be this high for a matchup of two pretty evenly matched teams. Honestly, St. Louis is the better ballclub here and they won yesterday, by a score of 7-6. The Cards have a better YTD run differential and are currently 2.5 games up on the Phillies in the race for the last Wild Card spot. I really like the value we’re getting tonight on the road team, especially with Adam Wainwright starting. Wainwright has thrown 91 innings in 15 starts, so he’s averaging just over 6.0 IP per outing and he also has a 3.07 ERA. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings against Miami, a game the Cardinals would go on to win 9-0. That performance was all the more impressive when you consider that Wainwright had previously never worked with catcher Ivan Herrera. The Cards are not only 10-5 in all Wainwright starts this year, but have also taken five of the last six. Behind Wainwright is one of MLB’s most consistent defenses. I doubt he’ll give up many runs here. Zach Wheeler is one of the Phillies’ top two starters (along with Aaron Nola), but the Phillies’ fielding is some of the worst in baseball, the bullpen isn’t great and Bryce Harper is missing from the lineup. Wheeler has been especially tough here at home, but the team has dropped his last two starts overall. The Cardinals lineup belted four straight home runs in the first inning of last night’s game and a second by the red-hot Nolan Arenado won the game in the 9th. I’m taking the better team at plus money. 9* St. Louis | |||||||
07-03-22 | Red Sox -109 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10* Boston (2:20 ET): Shockingly, the Cubs have won the first two games of this series, 6-5 and 3-1. I just cannot see them sweeping the Red Sox, however. Boston had an outstanding June (where they went 20-6) and the only two American League teams with better run differentials are the Yankees and Astros. The Cubs aren’t quite a bottom five team in baseball, but they’re close (bottom seven in my power rankings) and the current four-game win streak actually equals a season-high, previously set in May when they defeated the Pirates and D’backs twice each. Boston is the right side here, even with the pitching matchup. Connor Seabold will be making his second start of the season here for the Red Sox. The first did not go well as he was charged with seven runs in just 4 ⅔ innings. That was the game that ended the team’s seven-game win streak and now they are just 1-4 since. But three of those losses have been by two runs or less. Seabold had to face Toronto in that first start and that lineup is a lot more potent than the Cubs, who are averaging only 3.2 runs per game this year in Interleague play. Because starter Alec Mills had to leave after facing only two batters yesterday, the Cubs’ bullpen comes into Sunday super taxed. Despite a couple of quality starts recently, I’m not convinced today’s starter (Keegan Thompson) can carry the load. Also, the Cubs’ bullpen has been subpar most of this year, so their recent success seems like an outlier. To me, there’s no debating as to who the better ballclub is in this matchup. We’re just getting a discount because of a) the starting pitching matchup and b) how the first two games have gone down. Let’s take advantage, big-time. 10* Boston | |||||||
07-03-22 | Orioles v. Twins -160 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
6* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins have taken the first two games of this series, both in dramatic fashion. After winning on a Byron Buxton homer (in the bottom of the ninth) Friday, the Twins came back from three runs down yesterday to win 4-3, again on a walkoff. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough for us as it was another one-run win and I had them on the run line (-1.5). Today we won’t be playing quite as aggressively as this is a money line play. All signs point to the home team finishing off the three-game sweep. Up six in the win column over Cleveland in the AL Central, the Twins are in a good place right now. They did lose in walkoff fashion two straight days in Cleveland earlier this week, but now the ship seems to have been righted. Having Devin Smeltzer on the bump Sunday should continue things in the right direction. Smeltzer has a 2.86 ERA and 1.033 WHIP on the year (nine starts). At home, he’s 2-0 (four starts) with a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Baltimore is only hitting .205 its last seven games. Also pitching well of late is the Orioles’ starter for today, Tyler Wells. The O’s have won each of his last six starts, but Wells is charged here with silencing a more formidable lineup. As I said in yday’s analysis, FanGraphs currently has Baltimore projected for the fewest wins the rest of this season. They are doomed to again finish in the AL East basement. Psychologically, the Orioles have to be a little damaged over how the first two games of this series went. 6* Minnesota | |||||||
07-02-22 | Marlins v. Nationals -103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:05 ET): The Nationals were dealt a 6-3 loss last night and are now just 1-9 vs. the Marlins this season, including 0-4 at home. But now is not the time to abandon ship! Yes, I lost with the Nats last night as a tough stretch for starter Josiah Gray continued. But we’re getting the home team at plus money today and in my opinion they’re worth the investment. Miami remains well below .500 for the year on the road (16-24) and yesterday marked the first time in eight games they topped four runs. Both starters in this game have made three previous starts. For Miami, Daniel Castano has a 3.18 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP. He’s not factored into any of the decisions, but the team is 2-1 in those three games as they probably should be as two of the starts were quite good. But strikeout numbers are not impressive with only 10 in 17 IP. This will also be just the second time Castano is starting on the road. The Marlins lost the first time. The bullpen, which will be called upon at some point, has a 5.13 road ERA. The Nats turn to Jackson Tetreault. He has higher ERA than Castano, but the exact same WHIP. The team is also 2-1 in his three starts, but Tetreault has factored into every decision. It was a rough first start (vs. Atlanta), but the last two have seen him go a total of 13 innings and give up just four runs total, three of them unearned. One advantage the Nationals have is that they’ve seen Castano previously. He’s 0-2 against them in this career with a 6.75 ERA. Miami has never faced Tetreault. 10* Washington | |||||||
07-01-22 | Rangers v. Mets -185 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have some work to do this weekend as for the first time all year, they’ve lost three in a row. They’re still in first place in the NL East, but Mets’ fans don’t want to be reminded about last season when the same thing was the case and they then ceded control of the division to the Braves, who would go on to win the World Series. Fortunately for the Metropolitans, they are at home this weekend, facing the Rangers and have what looks to be a big edge on the mound Friday. It should be a happy “Bobby Bonilla Day” in Queens. The Mets are 24-12 at Citi Field, which is the best home record in the National League. Now they did just drop two here to the Astros, but that’s a much better team than Rangers, who will be sending Greg Otto to the mound. Otto gave up six runs in just two innings his last start, continuing a poor year which has seen him post a 6.51 xERA and 5.51 xFIP. He also walks a lot of batters. This Mets’ lineup, which could only manage one run against the Astros and was shutout for just the second time all season on Wednesday, should bounce back here. They are tied for third in all of baseball in runs scored per game. This also looks to be an excellent matchup for Chris Bassitt, who is already coming off three straight quality starts (with a 0.797 WHIP) and should have an even better ERA than 3.91 this season. Three of the Rangers’ last four series have been against teams rated in the bottom five in my power ratings. So this is a big step up in class and I just cannot see the Mets losing a third straight time at home for the first time all year, given the pitching matchup. Bassitt has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of 15 starts. 6* NY Mets | |||||||
07-01-22 | Marlins v. Nationals -126 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
8* Washington (6:05 ET): In the past, I’ve stated that the Marlins are better than their record, but this is a spot for the Fish. While they did win their last game, before that it was four losses in five games and none of those saw the team score more than three runs. They are likely to struggle again here facing Nationals’ righty Josiah Gray, who is long overdue to get back in the win column. The Nats have lost each of Gray’s last three starts, but he hasn’t factored into any of the decisions. In fact, he has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP during that stretch, allowing two runs and 11 hits in 18 innings of work. I fully expect Gray to handle the Marlins’ lineup on Friday as they are hitting just .228 on the road this season. Now we turn to the Washington offense, which did score seven runs in a loss Wednesday. That result ended a three-game win streak, but the team is still 6-3 its last nine games. They’ll see southpaw Trevor Rogers today. Rogers has been ineffective, posting a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-0 vs. Washington this season, but his TSR is 2-10 against everyone else, so I think the “third time should be the charm” for the Nationals tonight, in terms of facing Rogers. This is also a revenge game for the home team, who was swept down in Miami last month. They are just 1-8 vs. the Marlins in ‘22, but three of the losses have been by one run and Miami has topped five runs in only three of those games. If Washington can bring the offense tonight, and I believe they will, then this should be an easy win for the home team. Gray did not allow a run in five innings the last time he faced the Marlins. 8* Washington | |||||||
07-01-22 | Rays +133 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (3:07 ET): The Rays lost yesterday, 4-1, but that was with a pretty significant disadvantage on the mound as they sent out an “opener” (Matt Wisler) while the Blue Jays had Yusei Kikuchi going. This afternoon, the script has been flipped as Corey Kluber will toe the rubber for the Rays opposite Jose Berrios. The latter has struggled mightily with a 6.43 xERA, second highest among all qualifiers. Meanwhile, Kluber has been pretty solid of late, giving up 3 ER or less in eight straight starts. This is a great value on TB we’re getting here. The Rays have lost 10 of 15, but nine of those losses have come by one run. Speaking of one-run games, Toronto has a MLB-best 18 one-run victories, which is part of the reason they currently find themselves in second in the loaded AL East. But there’s really not a ton of difference between these two teams, only that the Blue Jays have been able to win a few more close ones. Berrios has a 6-0 team start record at home, but that’s pretty much the lone positive about his season. His ERA should be even higher and sure enough regression has begun to set in, as the L3 starts from Berrios have seen him post an 11.19 ERA. He’s allowed 14 runs in his L2 starts, which have seen him last just 6 ⅔ innings. Berrios is also giving up plenty of home runs, seven over his last three starts. Kluber has allowed only nine homers all season. In five career starts vs. Tampa Bay, Berrios is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA. Kluber is better and the Rays also have the edge in the bullpen. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-30-22 | Yankees -117 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (6:10 ET): The Yankees were very fortunate to sweep the A’s as they trailed by three runs (early) in two of the games and were outhit in the other. But the bottom line is the team wearing Pinstripes is now a MLB-best 56-20 and this is a great price on them as they open up a weekend series in Houston. Now, I’ll concede that going from facing the team with the worst record in baseball (at home) to facing the AL West leaders is a step up in class. But this year, the Yanks are really in a class of their own. They have a +151 run differential. Houston, who is the AL’s second best team, has a +72 run differential. These teams just met last weekend in the Bronx and they ended up each winning twice in the four-game series. Luis Severino will start tonight’s opener for NY. He was unsuccessful last weekend against the Astros, but did hold them to just three runs and five hits over six innings. The problem is that Justin Verlander was simply better (Astros won 3-1). But this time Severino will be opposed by Luis Garcia, whose ERA leaves a bit to be desired. While Garcia has posted B2B victories, he didn’t face the Yankees last weekend and was 0-4 with a 4.44 ERA his five starts before that. Severino is due for a win here as he has just one in his last six starts despite a 3.13 ERA during that span. Over the L7 starts, his ERA is 2.91 and his WHIP is 0.90 with five quality starts. The Yankees have been dominant in the month of June, winning 22 of 27 games and they are also 38-12 in night games this season. The Astros did just take two from the Mets and allowed only one run in the process. But they’ve also been held to three runs or fewer in four of the last five games (three of those vs. the Yankees). Note that Yordan Alvarez was carted off the field yesterday after a scary collision with shortstop Jeremy Pena. Both are being evaluated for concussions and thus may not be available. 10* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-30-22 | Twins +136 v. Guardians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
9* Minnesota (1:10 ET): The Twins thought they had another win over the Guardians last night when they struck for three runs in the top half of the 10th. But the home team had other ideas, scoring four of their own in the bottom half of that inning and winning in walkoff fashion via a Josh Naylor home run. That dramatic victory puts the Guardians just two games back of the Twins in the AL Central and they actually have one fewer loss on the season. But I look at Minnesota’s superior run differential (+45 vs. +12) and what Chris Archer, their starter for Thursday, has done recently. This is a great value on the road team. Over his last three starts, Archer has a 1.38 ERA and 0.846 WHIP. He tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball against Colorado last week. Though he’s predominantly been going just four or five innings per start, Archer simply has not been giving up many runs. He’s allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 14 starts this season. Something to note is that going into yesterday’s game, Twins’ pitching had been nothing short of phenomenal over the last week. They’d allowed just eight runs in seven games with three shutouts. This will actually be the first time the Guardians are facing Archer this season. Shane Bieber isn’t what he once was for Cleveland. He’s been getting hit hard and his strikeout rate is down. As a result, you’re looking at someone that has allowed one HR in three consecutive outings. Though he’s allowed three runs or less each of his last eight starts, Bieber has a 4.23 ERA at home. Cleveland had not topped three runs in a game since 6/22, that was until the bottom of the 10 last night. They scored only 12 runs the previous seven games. 9* Minnesota | |||||||
06-29-22 | White Sox v. Angels -171 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): This is the first game I gravitated towards today. I did so for a variety of reasons, chief among them my belief the White Sox are a team that ought to have a worse record. Favored to win the AL Central coming into the season, the Southsiders have been outscored by 45 runs in their 73 games. All things considered, they should feel fortunate to even be within three games of .500. While the White Sox won 11-4 last night (after falling behind 3-0 early), remember that the home team came out ahead 4-3 in Monday’s opener when I took them. Back on the Angels’ bandwagon tonight. Another reason I like the Halos in this matchup is that they’ll have Shohei Ohtani on the mound. Not only has Ohtani won three consecutive starts coming into this game, but he’s done so by allowing just one and nine hits total. That’s in 21 innings pitched. His last time out, I played Ohtani and the Angels and the Japanese superstar dazzled by striking out 13 Royals over eight shutout innings. That came the day after Ohtani had eight RBIs in a game. I know the White Sox had 17 hits in yesterday’s game, but this is a team that had scored a total of just 10 runs in its previous five games - combined. Ohtani should dominate. Michael Kopech will be starting opposite Ohtani here. He’s off B2B losses, the last one coming at home to Baltimore. In addition to the likelihood of Kopech not getting much run support here, you’ve got to consider the fact the team’s win percentage as a road underdog of +125 to +175 is only .333 the last three seasons (including 4-8 so far in ‘22). Meanwhile, the Angels are 20-9 the L29 times they’ve been a home favorite of -175 or higher. The odds certainly tell the story here and Chicago is also just 6-23 its last 29 games out in LA. Look for the home team to bounce back behind Ohtani. 7* LA Angels | |||||||
06-29-22 | Braves v. Phillies +121 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I went with the Braves in Tuesday’s series opener and that worked out as they won 5-3. Though the road team never trailed last night, they did need to score twice late (once in the eighth, once in the ninth) to come out ahead. I view this as a pretty even matchup and that’s why I was willing to go with Atlanta at “plus money” yesterday. The same thing now applies to going with Philly tonight and honestly they’re an even better value than the Braves were yesterday, being that they’re at home. Further playing into the notion of this being an even matchup, both of tonight’s starters have 9-5 team start records. Atlanta’s Kyle Wright has a slightly lower ERA and WHIP compared to Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez, but recently Suarez has Wright beat. Wright has struggled in his last two starts, giving up 21 hits in 11 ⅓ innings. His offense saved him last time out in what was an eventual 7-6 win over the Giants. Meanwhile, Suarez is off a quality start where he went 7 ⅓ innings and allowed just two runs. The Phillies got the win 6-2 as an underdog at San Diego. Wright is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Phillies. Atlanta is now 20-5 in June following last night’s win, but Philly isn’t far behind at 18-7. Being without Bryce Harper is a big blow, but the Phillies did score eight runs in a win without him on Sunday. I think they’ll find the necessary offense against Wright, whose number they’ve had in the past (as I mentioned earlier). The Braves are actually still sub-.500 off a win this season, which is pretty shocking given how this month has gone. The Phillies are still 8-3 L11 home games and 12-3 L15 overall when facing a right-handed starter. They are 5-2 off their previous seven losses as well. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-29-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +122 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
9* Arizona (3:40 ET): The host Diamondbacks stunned the Padres last night, rallying back from a 6-0 deficit to win 7-6. That was good for me as the D’backs were a 10* play! The win also snapped a six-game losing skid to San Diego where last week Arizona got swept. I think it’s going to be a bit of a different story here at Chase Field this week as the D’backs now look to make it two straight wins over their NL West rivals. The road team has now lost three straight and four of five. The lone win for SD in the last five games came by a score of 1-0. Now it will be the unbeaten Mike Clevinger toeing the rubber today for SD. He’s got a 5-0 team start record thus far, but has only recorded one decision himself. Clevinger does have a 3.00 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but something to keep in mind is that he’s yet to pitch beyond the fifth inning. He’s gone a full five just one time. As we saw yesterday, the Padres’ bullpen is far from “reliable.” Arizona has now scored a total of 18 runs the last two games, so they’ve got some confidence at the plate. The Padres are also just 7-17 their last 24 games at Chase Field. Veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner has yet to defeat SD as a member of the Diamondbacks, but look for that to change today. MadBum has pitched better than his record (3-7), although he struggled last time out against the Padres (started opposite Clevinger in that one too). But before that last start, Bumgarner had allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of 14 starts. The San Diego offense is still without Manny Machado, a big loss. In the last 11 games, the Padres have scored more than four runs only three times. Once again, I like Arizona at this price. 9* Arizona | |||||||
06-28-22 | Orioles v. Mariners -164 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
7* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners got embarrassed in last night’s series opener, losing 9-2 to the Orioles. Despite seemingly being doomed to last place in the AL East, Baltimore has played surprisingly well of late (won five of six) and is now just five games below .500. I’ve previously gone through how Seattle was destined to regress this season after finishing 2021 with 90 wins, despite a very poor run differential. But today marks a rare endorsement of the M’s as starter Robbie Ray has been quite solid and the team should be very motivated after last night’s loss. Ray has been dominant over his last three starts, allowing just two runs on 10 hits (total!) in 20 innings of work. He also has 20 strikeouts against just four walks during that time. When pitching at home, Ray has a 2.84 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. The team has won his last two trips to the mound, both division games, against Oakland and the Angels. It should be noted that when these teams squared off almost a month ago, Seattle took the series opener 10-0, as the road team. Baltimore then immediately bounced back with a 9-2 win of its own. Now, with the roles reversed, I anticipate the same thing to happen here. Seattle managed only three hits in yesterday’s game and now has several players suspended as a result of Sunday’s brawl with the Angels. They’ll face Dean Kremer on Tuesday. Kremer has pitched every bit as well as Ray has recently, but does have a higher WHIP. Kremer has also made just four starts all season while Ray is at 13. Orioles’ pitching has been shockingly good of late, but I just cannot see Kremer winning a fourth straight start as an underdog. The O’s are just 14-21 off a win this year. 7* Seattle | |||||||
06-28-22 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +100 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:40 ET): This is a big time revenge spot for the Diamondbacks, who have lost six straight times to the Padres including all three games out in SD last week. We’ve got an immediate pitching rematch from one of those three games as Sean Manaea takes on Zac Gallen tonight. Though Manaea and the Padres came out ahead 3-2 last week, my belief is that Gallen is the better starter in this matchup. He’s got better overall numbers and, in fact, last week saw the two starters finish in a near “dead heat,” both going six innings and allowing just two runs. Gallen allowed one more hit, but also had 11 strikeouts (compared to Manaea’s six). I look for the D’backs to get some revenge on Tuesday. This one taking place at Chase Field certainly seems to favor Gallen as he’s yet to lose a decision at home this season and has a 2.57 ERA and 0.833 WHIP here. Gallen has also allowed two runs or less in 11 of his 13 starts this season. San Diego has been more effective on the road when it comes to scoring runs, but is also only averaging 3.9 rpg its last seven while batting a collective .215 and now doesn’t have Manny Machado (injured) in the lineup. Overall, Arizona is 8-5 in games started by Gallen this year. Manaea has a history of pitching well against the D’backs, but let’s note the fact he’s allowed three home runs in his last two starts and gave up five runs to the Cubs on 6/14 (in just four innings of work). I don’t see him beating Gallen twice in a row, especially with the Padres’ offense having cooled off considerably. In two of Manaea’s last three starts, SD scored double digit runs. But they now have finished with seven or fewer hits in six of the last seven games (just nine total hits L2 games). 10* Arizona | |||||||
06-28-22 | Braves +104 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 104 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
9* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves and Phillies have been two of the hottest teams in baseball this month and now face off in a three-game series to conclude June. Atlanta is 19-5 its last 24 games while Philly is 18-6, but it’s a three-game difference in the division with the Braves in second and the Phils in third. Last time these two NL East rivals faced off, they ended up splitting a four-game series down in Atlanta. That was last month. I like the Braves to win Tuesday as I like them at plus money as the better overall ballclub. Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season. Yet the team is only 7-6 in his 13 starts. They lost the last one, 4-2 at Texas, which was surprising. Not only is Atlanta 9-2 in its last 11 road games, but they’ve won six of seven when opposing a right-handed starter. They’ve won five of their last seven series openers and are 44-17 their last 61 games following a loss, important to note here after letting one slip away vs. the Dodgers Sunday night. Charlie Morton has not dropped a decision for the Braves over his L9 starts. Sadly, he’s got just three wins to show for it though. But key for Morton here is the Phillies don’t have Bryce Harper in the lineup (injured) and they’ve already been struggling a bit against righties. The Phils’ batting order has also been pretty “top-heavy” so losing Harper is significant. Morton has a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts as he’s allowed just 11 hits and has 32 strikeouts in 20 innings (issued just one walk). 9* Atlanta | |||||||
06-27-22 | White Sox v. Angels -131 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The two starters for Monday’s series opener - Lucas Giolito for the White Sox and Noah Syndergaard for the Angels - both have 0-3 team start records over their last three starts, respectively. In fact, Syndergaard has an 0-4 TSR in his L4 starts as the Angels have scored a total of just three runs. However, I don’t think that anyone could argue that Syndergaard hasn’t been the better starter of the two, recently or this season. While Syndergaard is coming off one of his worst outings of the year (in terms of number of runs allowed), Giolito is off back to back awful showings (where he’s allowed 15 runs in 10 IP). Maybe a case could be made that Syndergaard was left out there for one inning too many in that last start. He’d allowed just three runs (on six hits) going into the 8th inning against the Royals last Monday. But then he gave up a two-run HR to put the game out of reach for his team. Still though, that’s one of only three outings this year where Syndergaard allowed more than three runs. He still has a 3.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and both of those numbers are even better at home. Now compare that to Giolito, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.563 WHIP this season after allowing 4+ runs in each of his L5 starts. Given what I’ve been saying about the White Sox most of this year, perhaps I got “what I deserved” yesterday when I made them my 10* Game of the Week as a run line play (-1.5) against the Orioles. They got the win, but only 4-3 after the bullpen allowed two runs to score in the ninth. This is a team that’s been outscored by 51 runs this season and simply hasn’t lived up to advanced billing as the favorite to win the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Angels have a slightly worse record than the White Sox, but a MUCH better run differential (+7) and are off a win on Sunday. The White Sox are also really banged up right now. All things considered, the home team looks like the “smart” play today. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
06-26-22 | Phillies v. Padres -148 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -148 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
7* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Phillies have had a great month (17-6) but are still well behind the Padres (6.5 games) in the NL Wild Card race, even after taking two of the first three games in this series. The key for today’s finale is that San Diego will have Yu Darvish on the mound and he’s not only been filthy of late overall (0.82 ERA, 0.591 WHIP L3 starts), but all season here at home (1.34 ERA, 0.645 WHIP in six starts). The Phillies’ offense has certainly been regressing over the last week or so (scored four runs or less in six of the last seven games) and I don’t think their starter for Sunday (Kyle Gibson) is capable of out-dueling Darvish in this spot. Darvish has had three subpar outings this season where he allowed five or more runs. All were on the road. He’s allowed no more than 3 ER in any of the other 10 starts. Last time out, Darvish went seven innings against Arizona and allowed just one run on four hits. In his last 22 IP, he’s allowed just 11 hits and two walks. Something else to consider is that, as a team, the Padres haven’t been giving up many runs at home this year. They allow just 3.3 per game with visitors at Petco Park hitting only .205. Only the Yankees and Astros are allowing fewer runs at home this season. Gibson has a 5.40 ERA and and 1.567 WHIP on the road this season where he’s yet to win a single decision in six tries. Gibson’s last start came on the road (at Texas) and there he gave up a pair of home runs as the Phils lost 7-0 to the Rangers. Earlier in the season (May 19th), Gibson faced off with Darvish (in Philly) and came out on the losing end of a 2-0 decision. Darvish went seven innings As a home favorite of -125 to -175, the Padres have won 67% of the time over the last three seasons. 7* San Diego | |||||||
06-25-22 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks -142 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
7* Arizona (10:10 ET): I’m quite willing to fade Detroit, a terrible team, off a win. The Tigers came here to Arizona and won Friday, by a score of 5-1, Only two teams have worse YTD run differentials (Oakland and Washington) and the Tigers are dead last offensively (2.9 runs per game). While they have been able to string together B2B wins three times in June, can’t see that happening here as they average only 2.5 runs per game on the road. Look for the host D’backs to bounce back on Saturday. Now Arizona has lost four straight as they were swept in their last series, by San Diego. Managing only three hits last night was also not encouraging, but keep in mind it was an even game, save for Javy Baez’ grand slam in the third inning, which proved to be the difference. Detroit is unlikely to have one swing of the bat be that crucial tonight and the last home start from Zach Davies saw him give the D’backs seven shutout innings. Davies has gone at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Arizona has been in a bit of a slump offensively, but I think they’ll break out here against Alex Faedo, who has an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP his L3 starts. Faedo was seemingly off to a decent start to his rookie campaign, but has only gone a full six innings once and has just one win in nine starts. 7* Arizona | |||||||
06-25-22 | A's v. Royals -160 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
7* Kansas City (4:10 ET): The Royals aren’t going anywhere this season, but they certainly seem to have the A’s number this season (3-1 head to head) including a 3-1 victory in last night’s series opener. Oakland is one of the few teams below KC in my power ratings. I took a flier on them last night (+1.5) based on the fact they (seemingly) had the edge on the mound. That’s not the case here with Jared Koenig (6.58 ERA, 1.756 WHIP) opposing Brad Keller. Look for the Royals to win again on Saturday. Oakland is having an absolutely atrocious month. They’ve gone 3-17 the L20 games and are basically a lock at this point to finish last in the American League West. Incredibly, the offense has scored two runs or less in 8 of the last 10 games, never scoring more than four. They’ve scored just four runs total in the last four games and yesterday was the fifth time in seven games they were held to one run or less. Keller not only beat the A’s in his last start, but held them to just one hit over seven scoreless innings. Koenig’s two road starts have been disasters as he’s given up 10 runs in 8 IP. When he faced the Royals at home last week, he stepped up with 5 ⅔ scoreless frames of his own and the A’s actually got the 4-0 win. But the chances of Koenig beating the same opponent twice in row seem slim. Kansas City’s offense might not seem that reliable, but they actually have been hitting lefties pretty well at home this month and Koenig is a southpaw. Remember that it only took three runs to get the win last night and the Royals should certainly score more today. You can’t count on Oakland to score much at all. 7* Kansas City | |||||||
06-25-22 | Pirates v. Rays -178 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
6* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): It was a little harder than anticipated for the Rays last night, but they still got the win, 4-3 over the Pirates. I anticipate this being a winning weekend for the home team. The Pirates are terrible (tied for third worst run differential) and are now coming off back to back extra inning games. While they’ve won four of six overall, three of those wins were against the Cubs. The Bucs have surpassed their win expectancy by five games, tied for most in the league. There’s a reason TB is such a big favorite in this one. The Rays have had mixed results here in June, but it should be pointed out that each of their last eight losses were by two runs or fewer and six of those came by exactly one run. So last night was a welcome reprieve. Corey Kluber gets the baseball Saturday and having allowed 3 ER or less in each of last five starts, he should easily handle this putrid Pirates lineup which is 28th in all of baseball in runs scored. On the road, Pittsburgh averages just 3.2 runs per game while batting a collective .214. Visitors average just 3.6 rpg with a .218 average here at Tropicana Field. So there’s a lot of pressure on Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker here. Brubaker did pitch quite well his last time out, but it was his first win of the season (in 14 starts!) and the team is 2-6 when he starts on the road. This is a place where - until yesterday - Pittsburgh hadn’t played since 2014. I just feel that the Rays are due to break out and their 8-1 record vs. National League teams this season makes them all the more appealing. 6* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-24-22 | Phillies -124 v. Padres | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -124 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (9:40 ET): San Diego was probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming into last night’s series opener with the Phillies. After all, the Padres had just swept the D’backs here at home earlier in the week and are neck and neck with the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. But they were beaten on Thursday, 6-2, and now have to go up against Aaron Nola, who has been one the best pitchers in all of baseball over the last month. Because of the big edge in starting pitching here, I’m backing the Phillies as they should continue what has been a tremendous June (16-5 overall). Nola has been red hot. Over his L5 starts, he has a 5-0 team start record and has allowed only eight runs total in 37 ⅓ IP. What’s even more impressive about that is five of those eight runs surrendered came in one game. The other four starts have seen him go 31 ⅓ innings and give up only three runs total! Last time out, it was eight shutout innings at Washington. Nola has a 0.78 ERA and 0.652 WHIP in his L3 starts and is facing a San Diego lineup that is hitting just .228 at home (only 3.9 rpg) and now without Manny Machado. The Phillies beat Joe Musgrove last night, becoming the first team to do so in 2022. They should have a much easier time against Mackenzie Gore this evening. Gore has a 10.22 ERA and 2.19 WHIP over his last three starts, just brutal numbers, and he’s allowed 14 runs in his last 6 ⅓ innings of work. Now he did just have to pitch at Coors Field in his last start where he allowed three home runs. But I don’t think he’ll be able to slow down a Phillies lineup that is averaging 5.2 rpg on the road this year. I absolutely love Nola in this price range. 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-24-22 | Mets v. Marlins -130 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Miami (6:40 ET): I’ve been playing the Marlins fairly regularly of late. After cashing them each of the first two games in their most recent series (vs. Colorado), I “took the day off” (of playing them) yesterday. They won anyway, 3-2, to finish off a three-game sweep. I’ve now successfully cashed this team three times in a row, going back to Sunday’s 6-2 win (as an underdog) over the Mets. That was the last start of Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara, who’s back on the mound Friday, facing the Mets yet again. I’m going to keep riding this Marlins ballclub, knowing they are better than their 32-36 record (+18 run diff). Alcantara has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Going 7-2 in his 14 starts, he has a 1.72 ERA and 0.956 WHIP. Among pitchers with double digit starts, only the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin has a lower ERA. Alcantara’s WHIP is top 10 in baseball. When he last faced the Mets, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on six hits. There’s been only one start all season that Alcantara gave up more than 2 ER. He’s also gone at least seven innings in all four starts here in June. The Mets have not been hitting righties particularly well this month, an obvious concern when going up against one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Starting opposite Alcantara will be Taijuan Walker, who is also having a good 2022. But Walker is not on the same level as Alcantara and is probably due to regress considering his xERA is more than a full point higher than his actual ERA. I know that it’s rare for the Mets to be coming in off B2B losses (just the 6th time all year) and they’ve yet to lose three in a row at any point in 2022. But they’re just 21-16 on the road (compared to 24-10 at home) and probably due to still regress some more, considering their perfect 5-0 record in extra inning games. Plus, Miami is hot right now. 10* Miami | |||||||
06-23-22 | Giants v. Braves -158 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
7* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves will look to win this four-game series on Thursday after coming from behind to get the 4-3 victory last night. They also won the series opener in one-run fashion, 2-1, while the Giants won the second game, in wild fashion (12-10). Both Braves’ wins in this series have been in walk-off fashion with Adam Duvall’s single last night capping a three-run rally in the ninth. There is no denying the fact that Atlanta is a “hot team” right now as they’ve gone 17-3 in the month of June to pull within 4.5 games of the Mets in the NL East and also put themselves in Wild Card position. I’m betting the Braves will win again today. As I’ve mentioned before, the Giants were historically profitable last year, making 45.8 units. That signaled (to me) that regression was forthcoming for the 2022 campaign and sure enough SF is just below the break even point at the betting window this season. They are also in Wild Card contention, one game behind the Braves. When you look at Thursday’s matchup, an obvious advantage for the home team may not be that apparent. However, the Giants are just 1-5 their last six games as a road underdog and have scored three runs or less in five of the last seven games overall. Kyle Wright will go here for Atlanta. Though he did struggle his last time out, giving up a season-high 11 hits, I expect Wright will bounce back in this spot. Prior to that last outing, he’d allowed 3 ER or less in every start but one this season. He has a 2.94 ERA this year and 0.947 WHIP at home. The Atlanta bullpen has also been solid. Alex Wood starts for SF and his numbers are higher than Wright’s, across the board. While the Giants are 3-0 in Wood’s last three starts, those wins came at the expense of the Rockies, Royals and Pirates, three of the bottom eight teams in baseball. Now Wood is up against a team that’s 9-1 in its L10 home games. 7* Atlanta | |||||||
06-22-22 | Rockies v. Marlins -188 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
6* Miami (6:40 ET): No reason to jump off the Marlins as everything I said about this matchup yesterday is still true today. Miami ended up winning Tuesday’s opener with the Rockies 9-8. While it took a go-ahead double in the bottom of the eighth, it was a game the Marlins had taken a three-run lead in the fifth after falling behind 3-0 early. As was discussed in yday’s analysis, the Marlins are better than their record. They have a +14 run differential (despite being six games below .500). The last two times I’ve taken them, they’ve won (including as an underdog Sunday vs. the Mets). Also remember that the Rockies are much worse on the road (11-19 this season, 51-89 L3 seasons). Furthermore, the Rockies are being outscored by more than two full runs per game this year outside of Coors Field. That’s very bad. It’s very rare to see them score eight runs on the road (like they did yesterday) as they came into this series with the lowest scoring average (on the road) in the entire NL. Miami has now won four straight at home and scored at least nine runs each of the last three games vs. Colorado pitching. Today they’ll see Chad Kuhl, whose 1.892 WHIP over his L3 starts leaves a lot to be desired. Kuhl is also winless (0-4) in six career starts vs. Miami with a 4.50 ERA. He will face Pablo Lopez, a right-hander that had a sensational April (3-0, 0.39 ERA) for the Marlins, but has since seen wins be few and far between. Lopez turned in a 2.78 ERA in six May start, but it’s been June where he’s struggled, posting a 6.48 ERA in three outings. But still, he has a 0.971 WHIP at home this season and is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA lifetime vs. the Rockies. Typically, Lopez has always pitched better at home than on the road, which is good because he actually held the Rockies scoreless for six innings at Coors Field back on May 30th. 6* Miami | |||||||
06-22-22 | Mets v. Astros -129 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
8* Houston (2:10 ET): On paper, this is seemingly a pretty even matchup between two division leaders. The Astros took yesterday’s season opener though, 8-2, and they came in with the advantage of having Monday off (while the Mets were wrapping up a series vs. Miami). Another edge for the AL contingent was that the Mets were using Trevor Williams in a spot start. He lasted only four innings and when he left the Mets were in a 3-0 hole. That only grew. Houston got six solid innings from its starter Jose Urquidy and its bullpen is in much better shape right now. I know that the Mets haven’t lost many series this season, but they are poised to be swept in this brief, two-game one. Today’s starting pitching matchup is Carlos Carrasco vs. Jose Urquidy. Again, that seems even on paper. But the Astros have done a much better job hitting righties this month and that gives them the advantage this afternoon. While Garcia had been 0-4 (with a 4.44 ERA) his previous five starts, he did win his last time out for Dusty Baker, going six innings and allowing only four hits. Garcia’s WHIP over his L3 starts is only 0.923. Getting back to what I mentioned earlier, the Mets are just 1-6 in their L7 road games vs. RHP. Carrasco may be 7-1 over his L9 starts for the Mets, but he’s got a 5.00 ERA over the last three and will be facing a tough lineup here today. The Astros have averaged six runs over their last seven games and have a “deeper” lineup than the Mets. The bottom of their batting order is much stronger than the Mets. Also, the bullpen is a big edge for the ‘Stros. Mets’ relievers have posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road this season. Astros’ relievers have posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home. The Mets, while impressive this season, are due to regress a little as they’ve gone a lucky 5-0 in extra inning games. 8* Houston | |||||||
06-21-22 | Royals v. Angels -149 | Top | 12-11 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The Angels dropped the series opener to the Royals 6-2 as three KC home runs, two of them coming in the eighth inning, proved to be too much. For the Halos, it was a very disappointing result after taking four of five over the weekend from the division rival Mariners (on the road). As you probably know, the season has seemingly come apart in Anaheim as the team was 10 games above .500 on May 24th, but has gone just 6-20 ever since. But they still sport a positive YTD run differential and I think they should be able to bounce back here against the last place Royals, who have a -87 run differential. Should we be concerned that Angels’ starter Reid Detmers has a 1.622 WHIP over his L3 starts? Or the fact his team start record in his L5 outings is 0-5? I don’t think so! Prior to the 0-5 TSR, he tossed a no-hitter.Detmers also has thrown 4 ⅔ shutout innings against both the Red Sox and the Yankees. So he shouldn’t have much trouble mowing down a Royals’ lineup that is not doing much against lefties this season. Detmers also has a 0.72 WHIP in his six starts here at home. His last start was on the road and against the Dodgers. After facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers, this is a far more favorable matchup. It wasn’t too long ago that the Royals had the worst win percentage in all of baseball. That changed after they took two of three out in Oakland over the weekend. Despite winning four of the last seven games overall, KC has averaged just 2.9 runs per game and hit .220. They are only 12-21 on the road and are 7-14 off a win. Starter Jon Heasley has a 1.855 WHIP on the road and the team has lost five of his seven starts overall. I know the Angels are still adjusting to not having Anthony Rendon, but they should find enough offense here to get the ‘W.” 7* LA Angels | |||||||
06-21-22 | Rockies v. Marlins -123 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
8* Miami (6:40 ET): Although the Marlins lost yesterday afternoon to the Mets (6-0) and the Rockies had an off-day (following a three-game sweep of the Padres), I believe the home team should be a much larger favorite for this series opener. The Marlins are better than their record; they have a +13 run differential despite being seven games below .500. They won for me on Sunday (as an underdog). And remember that the Rockies are much worse on the road (11-18 in ‘22, 51-88 L3 seasons). Their three-game sweep of San Diego occurred at Coors Field. Miami, off a 4-6 road trip, also swept its last series here at home. Though the Marlins were blown out yesterday, they certainly had their chances. Unfortunately, they threw them away by going 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position and leaving 10 men on base. They faced three tough teams on the 10-game road trip, Houston, Philadelphia and the Mets. Now it’s an opponent that’s in last place in the NL West. This is just the fourth time this season that Colorado finds itself on a three-game win streak. Only once have they won four in a row. I liked what I saw from Miami starter Daniel Castano his last time out. He faced the Phillies and turned in 6 ⅔ shutout innings of five-hit ball. That was his first start of the season as he’s transitioning from the bullpen. This matchup should be far more favorable than the Phillies were for Castano as the Rockies are averaging only 3.0 runs per game away from home (lowest in NL) and have been below average against lefties. Meanwhile, look for the Marlins to get to Rockies' starter Ryan Feltner this time around after Feltner got the best of them in Denver late last month. Feltner has allowed a home run in each of his last three starts and did get tagged for six runs in three innings by Atlanta on 6/5. The Marlins also have the better bullpen. 8* Miami | |||||||
06-20-22 | Blue Jays -130 v. White Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:10 ET): The Blue Jays just ended the Yankees’ nine-game win streak on Sunday (won 10-9) and now head to Chicago where they’ll hope to sweep the White Sox for the second time in less than a month. For the Jays, June began with a three-game sweep of the Sox, which made it an eight-game win streak overall. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball (8-8) with four losses in the last six games. But again, they just faced the Yankees and any opponent after that is going to be a drop in class. Such is the case here with a Chicago team I successfully faded last night in Houston. As I said in my analysis for Sunday Night Baseball, the White Sox are fortunate to be even close to .500 as they have a -39 run differential on the year. Only Pittsburgh and Detroit have been greater overachievers in terms of win expectancy. On the mound tonight for the Southsiders will be Lance Lynn. He made his 1st start of 2022 last week (against the Tigers) and gave up three runs on 10 hits in just 4 ⅓ innings. The White Sox still won 9-5, but giving up that much damage to the worst offense in MLB was a bad sign. Now Lynn faces a Toronto lineup that is one of the strongest in all of baseball. Lynn is 1-3 with a 4.21 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. the Blue Jays. Toronto will go with Jose Berrios here. While his ERA on the season (4.65) isn’t all that great, lately Berrios has been on fire with a 2.45 ERA and 0.636 WHIP his L3 starts. All three starts saw him go at least seven innings and give up three runs or less. All three were also wins as the team is now 10-3 with Berrios on the hill this season. Rallying back from a six-run deficit to beat the Yankees on Sunday should create some “momentum” for the Jays, who are certainly the better team here. Berrios has 12 career wins over the White Sox, his most versus any team. 8* Toronto | |||||||
06-20-22 | Yankees v. Rays +118 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays are going for revenge here as last week saw them get swept up in New York. It’s admittedly been a bit of a tough stretch for TB as they’ve dropped seven of nine overall, including two of three at last place Baltimore over the weekend. But multiple things are working in their favor for Monday’s opener against the Yankees. For starters, they are back at home. The last three-game series at Tropicana Field saw the Rays sweep the Cardinals. (The entirety of the 2-7 stretch has been on the road). The Yankees also had their nine-game win streak ended Sunday. They fell 10-9 at Toronto. But perhaps most important of all for the Rays is that they have Shane McClanahan on the mound. A clear Cy Young contender this season, McClanahan comes in with a 1.84 ERA and 0.855 WHIP after 13 starts. The Rays had won seven straight times with him on the mound, before losing his start against the Yankees last week, 4-3. (Note I cashed TB on the run line, +1.5, in that game). McClanahan was victimized by three unearned runs and two homers last week in the Bronx, which is highly uncharacteristic. He still has yet to surrender more than 3 ER in any start this season. Let’s also point out the fact that despite losing seven of nine, the Rays have been in virtually every game. Their last four losses, including yesterday, were all by exactly one run. Today they’re up against Gerrit Cole, who is just 2-6 all-time against the Rays, his second-worst record against any team. Cole was also hit hard in his last road start, giving up seven runs in 2 ⅓ innings at Minnesota. He did pitch well against the Rays last week, but I think he and the Yankees are due to start “giving a little” back. While it might seem scary to fade the Pinstripes, know that they are only 5-5 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-20-22 | Cubs +103 v. Pirates | Top | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
9* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): Two struggling teams here out of the moribund NL Central, a division where the Cardinals and Brewers are set to run away with things. The other three teams, the two here and the Reds, are all also-rans that are at least 13 games below .500 with run differentials of -64 or worse. Despite actually having the best record of the three teams, I’d argue the Pirates might be the worst of the bunch considering they have MLB’s 2nd worst run differential (-104). The Bucs are off a rare win (4-3 over the Giants Sunday), so it’s an even better time than usual to fade them here. The Cubs have won just twice in their last 13 games, both wins coming against Atlanta in the previous series. But the Pirates also have just two wins in their last 13 games. Yesterday’s win over the Giants was a bit of a shocker as the Bucs were able to rally from an early 2-0 hole, thanks almost exclusively due to rookie Jack Suwinski’s three-homer game. It was the first time in MLB history that a rookie had a three HR game, which included a walkoff. Meanwhile, after taking the first two games of their series with Atlanta, the Cubs were shutout on Sunday, 6-0. Surprisingly, that was only the third time all season that the Cubs have been blanked. The big key here is that I don’t think the Pirates should be favorites against anyone, especially with JT Brubaker on the mound. Brubaker hasn’t won since August of last season and comes into Monday with an 0-7 record. When he faced the Cubs earlier in the year, Brubaker ended up allowing a season-high six runs. He’ll be opposed today by rookie Caleb Kilian, who will be making just his third big league start. Kilian has yet to taste victory, but both previous starts came at Wrigley Field. I just feel that the Cubs are the better team here. Pittsburgh should have an even worse record than it already has. 9* Chi Cubs | |||||||
06-19-22 | White Sox v. Astros -168 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
6* Houston (7:08 ET): This is all about fading a White Sox team that I don’t believe in (-38 run differential) and is coming off a surprising 7-0 win on Saturday. Meanwhile, a day after matching its season-high in runs for a single game (13), the Astros could only manage three hits yesterday off Johnny Cueto and the Sox bullpen. Certainly, more offense is to be expected from the home team tonight as they are still averaging more than six runs per game over the last week. They’ve also got Cristian Javier on the mound and he’s pitched very well at home thus far (2.61 ERA, 0.919 WHIP). The White Sox have now won four of five, but they continue to exceed their win expectancy (for the season) by a larger margin than anyone besides the Tigers and Pirates. Given their run differential, the Sox should feel rather fortunate to be within a game of .500. Sunday starter Michael Kopech has been pretty good so far (1.92 ERA, 0.929 WHIP), but that hasn’t translated into many victories as the team is just 5-6 so far with him on the mound. The White Sox are also just 1-4 off a shutout win this year. That includes losing the opener of this series as they’d beaten Detroit 13-0 the previous day. Conversely, the Astros are 4-1 off a shutout loss. They are also 16-8 off a loss of any kind. Should be noted that the team is 33-15 overall in its L48 games. Houston pitching has been excellent this season with opponents batting just .219 against them for the year, including .207 at home. Look for Javier to keep that going against a White Sox lineup that has several players out because of injuries. 6* Houston | |||||||
06-19-22 | Marlins +128 v. Mets | Top | 6-2 | Win | 128 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
9* Miami (1:35 ET): The Mets have already guaranteed themselves of not losing another series by taking the first two games (10-4, 3-2) of this four-game set. But I do not expect Miami to be swept here at Citi Field and Sunday seems like the best time to take them as they’ll have ace Sandy Alcantara on the bump. Alcantara has been excellent so far in 2022, posting a 1.68 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’s been even more “lights out” than usual as of late with a 0.76 ERA and 0.845 WHIP his L3 starts. In a game that isn’t expected to see many runs, taking the underdog is not a bad idea. Despite what’s happened so far in this series, it’s not like the Marlins are a bad team. They sport a positive YTD run differential (+13) despite a losing record and actually have a better RD than the Mets over the L10 games. Alcantara has never won at Citi Field, but has a 3.55 ERA in six starts here. Save for a head-scratching start vs. Seattle on May 1st, Alcantara has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. That’s key because Miami is a very bad 9-31 when they score four runs or fewer. But they don’t need to worry about scoring a ton today because Alcantara figures to not give up many runs. This also seems like an opportune time to fade both the Mets and their starter Chris Bassitt. The Mets are now a season-best 21 games over .500 and off to their best start since the ‘86 World Series team. Bassitt pitched a season-high eight scoreless innings his last time out, but that came on the heels of allowing seven runs in 3 ⅓ innings the start before that. Seven runs is more than Alcantara has allowed over his L5 starts, a stretch which includes two complete games. Miami is 6-1 in Alcantara’s last seven starts as the right-hander has posted a 0.81 ERA and 0.736 WHIP. The underdog has the clear edge in starting pitching on Sunday, so I’ll take them in this spot. 9* Miami | |||||||
06-19-22 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -139 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox were humiliated on Saturday, losing 11-2 here at Fenway Park to the Cardinals. But they beat the Cards on Friday, 6-5, and should bounce back on Sunday. The Red Sox have not lost B2B games this month, going 3-0 off a loss previously. They are 12-4 overall in June and have the American League’s third best run differential (+45) despite being fourth in their own division. I like starter Nick Pivetta, who has a 3.50 ERA and 1.085 WHIP this season, despite a 6-7 TSR. He’s pitched well lately. Last time out, Pivetta went eight innings and allowed just one run and three hits. Now that was against lowly Oakland, but the bottom line is that Pivetta is now 6-1 his last seven starts with a 2.06 ERA and 0.792 WHIP. He’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of those last seven starts. St. Louis did scored 11 runs yesterday, but they are just 1-3 the L4 times they’ve been off a game where they put 10 or more runs on the board. In the three losses, they’ve totaled only four runs. For St. Louis Andre Pallante is set to come out of the bullpen and start the series finale. This won’t be Pallante’s first start (it will be his third). While his 0.96 ERA as a starter may look nice, his 1.501 WHIP does not. Plus, the two teams that Pallante has had to face as a starter were the Reds and Cubs, both of whom are obviously not on the Red Sox level. I’m a little surprised that Boston is just a .500 team (16-16) so far at Fenway this season. These teams would normally be pretty evenly matched, but not with today’s starting pitching matchup. 8* Boston | |||||||
06-17-22 | Angels +118 v. Mariners | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:10 ET): The Angels have obviously had a dreadful month (lost 12 of 15), but they got this key series off on the right foot, beating Seattle last night by a score of 4-1. Mike Trout continued his resurgence at the plate with two home runs and Shohei Ohtani pitched six innings of three-hit ball. That was actually the Angels’ first road win in over a month (May 15th), snapping an 11-game losing streak away from home, but now is a great time to “buy low” on this club, which is better than its overall record. Let’s not forget that they started the season battling the Astros for first place in the AL West. The Astros now have a nine-game cushion in the division. Oakland brings up the rear. In the middle, you’ve got both of these teams bunched closely together, along with Texas. I think Seattle is the weakest of those three, plus they are a team due to regress in ‘22 after winning 90 games last year despite a -51 run differential. Coming into this game, the Mariners have produced very little offense of late. They’ve scored a total of eight runs in the L5 games and been shutout twice. Only three times in the last nine games have the M’s managed to score more than three runs. I do not believe they should be favored in this matchup. You may have forgotten that Robbie Ray won the AL Cy Young last year for Toronto. His numbers this year for Seattle have been pretty good, at least at home, but some key metrics are up, such as xFIP, HR rate and walk rate. Ray is off a solid start vs. Boston, but prior to that had allowed four or more runs in four of his previous five starts. The Angels’ lineup is getting healthier and starting to turn things around. Michael Lorenzen, a former reliever, has transitioned well into a starting role for the Angels and he allowed just one run his last time out. It was his 7th quality start in 10 outings. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
06-17-22 | Rays -148 v. Orioles | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -148 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (6:05 ET): The Rays were just swept by the Yankees and have dropped five of six overall, while the Orioles have won four of their last six games and just earned a surprising split of a four-game series up in Toronto. But I look at this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the visiting Rays, who are clearly the better team. Baltimore is once again destined for the AL East basement. The Rays certainly played the Yankees tough for three games, losing by one run twice and giving up just eight runs in the entire series. I know that tonight’s starter Shane Baz had a really rough first outing (gave up five runs in 2 ⅓ innings), but the prospect is highly touted for a reason and should shine here against an Orioles’ lineup that is due to “cool off” after scoring six or more runs during the 5-1 stretch. The O’s put 10 on the board yesterday, six of those coming in one innings. But Baltimore is 0-3 this season following a game where it scored 10 or more runs. While I’m bullish on Baz, the same cannot be said for Baltimore starter Dean Kremer, who has made two starts and they went quite differently. Kremer has a 5.63 ERA in two previous starts vs. Tampa Bay. He also has a career 5.54 xFIP, which is quite horrible. I think it sets up to be a nice weekend for the Rays, who should easily take this series opener. 7* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-15-22 | Twins -132 v. Mariners | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:10 ET): I was wrong on this matchup yesterday, as the Mariners were able to even the series up with a 5-0 shutout. The Twins just couldn’t muster anything against Logan Gilbert, who went six innings and gave up just four hits. But I think today’s matchup is in their favor and a win is rather necessary with their lead in the AL Central down to 2.5 games over Cleveland. As I said yesterday, Seattle is not a team I’m buying over the long haul as they overachieved to get to 90 wins last season. Look for the Twins, who have successfully bounced back from each of their L4 losses, to take this game and series. While the Twins couldn’t do any damage last night against Gilbert, look for them to get to today’s starter for Seattle, Marco Gonzales. Gonzales may enter this game with a decent 3.63 ERA, but several other metrics indicate regression is on the horizon. The team has lost 8 of Gonzales’ 12 starts this season, including each of the last three. Part of that is they haven’t given him much support, which could be the case again today as the M’s have only scored a total of seven runs in their L3 games. Something to watch for with Gonzales is that his strikeout rate is way down this year. He also issued six walks in his last start. He’s 0-3 with a 9.37 ERA all-time vs. Minnesota. The Twins will certainly be happy to see Sonny Gray back on the mound Wednesday. Before landing on the injured list (for a second time this season), Gray was really “in a groove,” posting a 1.42 ERA and 0.684 WHIP his last three starts, all wins. Gray has a 2.89 ERA in 13 previous starts vs. Seattle, who is just 10-17 off a win this season, including 0-2 if it was a shutout. Gray should get some nice run support here as not only is Gonzales set to regress, but the Twins hit lefties well anyway. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
06-14-22 | Twins +112 v. Mariners | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
9* Minnesota (10:10 ET): We’re getting the better team at “plus money” here and the Twins won the series opener, 3-2, here in Seattle. All they needed was a first inning home run from Byron Buxton last night as starter Chris Archer and the Twins’ bullpen easily shut the Mariners down. Prior to last night’s win, Minnesota had scored six or more runs in six of its last nine games. They lead the AL Central by 3.5 games but are seven up in the win column over second place Cleveland. I view the Twins as being underrated in this spot and will gladly take them in this price range. Seattle, who won 90 games last season despite a -51 run differential, was a lock to regress this season. Currently, they are fourth in AL West, ahead of only Oakland. Last night was the M’s fourth loss in six games and came on the heels of being one-hit (by Boston) on Sunday. There just hasn’t been much production at the plate lately and tonight they face Joe Ryan, who is having a very good 2022 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.992 WHIP. His numbers are even better on the road (1.61, 0.985) where he has a 4-0 team start record. He’s coming off the COVID list, but last time out Ryan easily defeated KC 9-2, allowing just one run in 5 ⅔ IP. Logan Gilbert starting is probably the sole reason that Seattle is favored in this game. Gilbert has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and is on a streak of five consecutive quality outings. But, as mentioned above, this Twins’ lineup is raking the ball as of late. Buxton was named the AL Player of the Week for the last week while leadoff man Luis Arraez leads the league with a .362 average. 9* Minnesota | |||||||
06-14-22 | Guardians -160 v. Rockies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
7* Cleveland (8:40 ET): The Guardians are trending up, thanks mostly to a pretty easy schedule as of late. The team has won 10 of its last 13 games and won four straight series, outscoring the competition 67-44 and that’s even with allowing 10 runs in a rare loss to Oakland on Saturday. Looking at the AL Central race Cleveland is just 3.5 games back of Minnesota and has a better YTD run differential. They’ve played seven fewer games than the Twins and that’s the difference in the standings right now. I look for the Guardians to continue rolling Tuesday as they open up a rare three-game series in Coors Field. These teams do not face off often. Cleveland has played only two games at Coors Field in the last decade, both in 2017! But an offense that’s hitting a collective .280 over the last week should thrive in this environment. They’ll face Antonio Senzatela, who has a terrible WHIP (1.854) and an 0-4 TSR over his L4 starts. Now three of those four outings came against San Francisco. But Senzatela also allowed six runs and 13 hits when he faced Miami here at home on June 1st. Behind Senzatela, the Rockies won’t have one of their top relievers as Tyler Kinley was placed on the 15-game DL on Sunday. The always reliable Shane Bieber will toe the rubber tonight for the Guardians. His ERA is 1.67 over the last five starts, four of them quality and then he didn’t allow any runs over 4 ⅓ IP vs. Texas last week. Yes, the Rockies are always a threat to score runs at home, but off B2B victories for the first time in a month (played a doubleheader on Saturday), this is a good time to fade them. Cleveland has scored three or more runs in every game since May 29th and figures to put up a big number today. Bieber should take care of the rest as the Guardians continue their pursuit of the Twins. 7* Cleveland | |||||||
06-13-22 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
7* Arizona (9:40 ET): These teams just played a four-game series last week, in Cincinnati, and both emerged with two victories. The Reds won the first two, but the D’backs bounced back to earn the series split by winning 7-0 and 5-4. That former result featured the same starting pitching matchup as we have today, Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Mike Minor for Arizona. Kelly had one of his best outings of the season to date, tossing six shutout innings of one-hit ball. Minor, who gave up three runs in 4 ⅓ IP, has now allowed a total of five home runs in his two starts. Look for the same result as last week. Before yesterday, Arizona had only one other win in June besides the two over the Reds. But then they clobbered the Phillies on Sunday, 13-1, snapping their nine-game win streak in shocking fashion. That should provide some much needed “momentum” heading into this series where they’ll face a Reds team that had lost four in a row before a 7-6 win Sunday over St. Louis. The D’backs haven’t been great so far here at Chase Field, but the Reds have been downright dreadful on the road where they are 9-22 and being outscored by 2.1 runs per game. The Reds are also 14-28 in games vs. right-handed starters. Kelly, a righty, comes in with a 3.32 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in 12 starts. Those are solid numbers and his ERA is lower here at home. He’s only had one outing all year where he gave up more than three earned runs and that came against the Dodgers. For Cincy, Minor not only lost to Arizona last week, but also to a terrible Washington club 10 days ago. He allowed five runs (in just four innings) and three homers in that start. 7* Arizona | |||||||
06-12-22 | Mets v. Angels -115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (7:08 ET): After a mystifying 14-game losing streak, the Angels have won two of three. They beat the Mets last night, 11-6, in what was their highest scoring effort in a month. Moving forward, I think the Angels will be fine. They are a better than average team and have a run differential comparable to the 34-25 Rays. Of course, the Mets have one of the best run differentials in all of baseball (3rd best), but their lead in the NL East is shrinking due to both the Braves and Phillies being red-hot at the moment. At the end of the day, the Angels are likely to start stringing some wins together while there are some obvious signs that the Mets may regress a bit. Patrick Sandoval gets the starting nod tonight for LA. The team has won six of his nine starts so far and Sandoval has a 2.81 ERA. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start, which was against a Toronto team that was red-hot at the time. The Mets are the second-highest scoring team in baseball so far (behind only the Dodgers), but I don’t see them continuing to average 5.0 runs per game. Also, the Mets have been somewhat fortunate to go 5-0 in extra inning games. Plus they’ve had several other come from behind wins. They are just 5-5 L10 games. But I think the player to watch in this game is the Angels’ Mike Trout. He recently suffered through a career-worst 0 for 26 slump and missed Friday’s series opener with an injury. However, in his return to the lineup, he hit a pair of home runs last night and went 3 for 4 at the plate overall. It’s obviously just a matter of time before Trout gets hot again. Look for him to deliver again tonight facing Taijuan Walker, who he is 10 for 16 lifetime against with three home runs and a triple. Recently, Walker has shown signs of regression with a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP his L3 starts. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
06-11-22 | Rangers v. White Sox -133 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -133 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
7* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): You may be surprised to see this selection, based on the respective run differentials of the two teams, not to mention some other things I’ve written in the past about the White Sox. But Chicago did take Friday’s series opener from Texas, 8-3, and has shown an ability to hit lefties this season. Their offensive numbers are simply much better when facing a southpaw, so I’m not overly concerned about them going up against Martin Perez, who has been red hot for the Rangers. Perez may be due to regress and note his team has now dropped seven of nine overall. The Rangers are only 6-12 in day games this season as well. Starting here for Chicago will be Lucas Giolito. He’s coming off a pair of rough outings - where he allowed 11 runs total (three unearned) - but prior that had given up 3 ER or less in his first even starts of 2022. So I can see Giolito outdueling Perez here as he’s also 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA lifetime vs. the Rangers. Perez is just 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox. The White Sox have won four of six overall and perhaps the most encouraging sign is that they’ve scored 17 runs in the L2 games. On Thursday, they scored four times off Dodgers’ southpaw Tim Anderson, who had previously not allowed a run since 5/17. There is no denying that Texas, despite having scored the same number of runs as they’ve allowed this season, is the colder team in this matchup. The White Sox do have that ugly -52 YTD run differential, so it could be argued they shouldn’t have a better record than the Rangers. But I think we should start to see the RD even out here at home. 7* Chi White Sox | |||||||
06-10-22 | Blue Jays -205 v. Tigers | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:10 ET): Hard for me to see any result other than a Blue Jays’ victory in Friday’s series opener at Detroit. The Jays come in pretty hot, having won 10 of 13, while the Tigers are a complete mess this season with a 23-33 record. Both clubs had Thursday off. Toronto actually lost its last time out, 8-4 to Kansas City, while Detroit did just win two straight in Pittsburgh. But overall, the numbers clearly point Toronto’s way in this series and especially for tonight’s game. Lay the big price. So I realize that Jose Berrios, who will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight, does not have the best overall numbers this season. But he is coming off a quality start vs. Minnesota where he had a season-high 13 strikeouts. In that game, Berrios allowed just two runs and three hits over seven innings of work. It was his second quality start in his last three appearances and now he faces the worst offensive team in the majors, Detroit, who is putting up a paltry 2.8 runs per game. No other team averages fewer than 3.2. The Blue Jays have won 8 of Berrios’ 11 starts this year. Going back to May 24th, which was the start of Toronto’s 10-3 run, the offense has put up six or more runs in all 10 victories. Tonight they’ll face Edwin Rodriguez, who has been really bad thus far, posting a 9.45 ERA and 1.65 WHIP through three starts. Last time out, he was annihilated by the Yankees, giving up 10 runs and 11 hits in just 4 ⅓ IP. The Tigers ended up losing that game 13-0. It certainly seemed as if Rodriguez was “tipping” his pitches, which isn’t a good sign. The Blue Jays are 36-16 off a loss. 6* Toronto | |||||||
06-09-22 | Red Sox v. Angels -118 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (9:38 ET): Let’s do it. The Angels have lost 14 in a row, an unconscionable free-fall that has left them four games over .500 and cost Joe Maddon his job. It was only two weeks ago that most saw the Halos as a legit contender to the Astros in the AL West and a “shoo-in” to make the postseason. The last three losses have come here at home to the Red Sox, who have won seven in a row. But getting swept at home, in a four-game series, is rare and the Angels have Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight. I think tonight is the night they snap the losing skid. I know that the Angels’ everyday lineup has been besieged with injuries, but all three losses in this series have been by one run, two of them 1-0. All it takes is one big hit and I think that this team’s fortunes can improve drastically. They had the same number of hits as Boston yesterday. Remember that in the final game of the last series (in Philadelphia), the Angels blew a 6-2 lead and lost in extra innings. It’s pretty incredible that they didn’t win any of the last four games. Ohtani threw seven shutout innings against the Red Sox back in May, finishing with 11 strikeouts, as the Angels won 8-0 at Fenway Park. Though he’s coming off B2B rough outings, Ohtani had previously given up 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts and I expect him to step up in this spot when his team needs him the most. I know that Nick Pivetta has pitched well of late for Boston, but to me this is all about the Angels being due for a win. I just can’t see them losing again. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
06-09-22 | Cardinals v. Rays -177 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays probably aren’t catching the Yankees for first place in the AL East (seven games back), but now at 33-23 on the year, they’re clearly establishing themselves as a likely Wild Card team in the American League. Tied with Toronto for the top WC spot, the Rays will look to sweep St. Louis on Thursday. After a thrilling walk-off win on Tuesday, Tampa Bay delivered its best offensive game of the season last night with 18 hits, including seven doubles. They ended up winning 11-3 and joined the Yankees as the only teams with 20 or more home victories this season. I like them this afternoon. Thursday’s starter Shane McClanahan has been dominant in 2022. I talked about this prior to his last start when I backed McClanahan and the Rays against the White Sox in a similar price range, here at home. McClanahan ended up delivering six solid innings where he gave up only two runs, had eight strikeouts and didn’t walk anybody. That was on the heels of an outstanding May where he went 4-0 with a 1.15 ERA in five starts (5-0 TSR). Over his L5 starts, McClanahan has allowed just four runs in 32 IP with 42 strikeouts and just three walks. Opponents are hitting just .201 off him for the year. He’s clearly an AL Cy Young candidate, St. Louis has never faced him before, and he’s underpriced (if you can believe it). This play is more about jumping on McClanahan than fading St. Louis, but it should be noted the Cardinals have scored only five runs in this series. Starter Miles Mikolas has a 6.75 ERA and 1.557 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up a total of 10 runs in the previous two. Mikolas’ only previous start vs. the Rays came in ‘14 and it did not go well as he allowed 10 runs. No offense to the Cards here, but they’re up against one of the top pitchers in all of MLB and don’t have much of a chance. The Rays have won 21 of 26 interleague home games vs. righties. 7* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-08-22 | Phillies -122 v. Brewers | Top | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:10 ET): Firing Joe Girardi certainly seems to have ignited a spark in Philadelphia where the Phillies have now won five straight and go for their second straight sweep on Wednesday. After handing the Angels three losses over the weekend, the Phils now look to do the same to the Brewers, in Milwaukee no less, which would be very impressive. The Brew Crew are still in first place in the NL Central (lead down to one-half game over St. Louis), but the Phillies are a hot team right now and you need to continue riding them. As I’ve written before, they were really underachieving under Girardi. Though still three games below .500, Philadelphia has had a positive run differential for almost the entire season. Based on their current RD (+19), you’d expect them to have about four more wins and be in second place in the NL East. I very much believe this can be a playoff team in 2022. Starter Aaron Nola (off B2B wins) should continue his turnaround here, which was long overdue as his WHIP on the season is 0.93. His xERA is a full point lower than his actual ERA, a strong indicator that more positive regression is forthcoming. Nola is also 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Milwaukee. Now the Phils have pulled out a couple of seemingly improbable victories the L2 days, including last night where they homered twice in the ninth off Brewers closer Josh Hader. The problem for the Brewers right now is that they just aren’t scoring. They’ve been shutout twice during their current four-game losing streak and have now dropped six of their last seven overall. This is a team with strong starting pitcher, but Adrian Houser (who goes today) isn’t one of the best as he’s allowed 5+ ER in half of his previous six starts. The Phillies are putting up 5.1 runs per game on the road (2nd most in MLB) and I look for their resurgence to continue here. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-08-22 | Blue Jays -142 v. Royals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -142 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
7* Toronto (2:10 ET): These are two teams clearly trending in opposite directions right now as Toronto is 8-2 in its L10 games while Kansas City is 2-8. The Blue Jays, looking to establish themselves as a playoff team in the American League, have come in and humiliated the last place Royals each of the L2 games, winning 8-0 and 7-0. They go for the sweep this afternoon and given the total lack of resistance they’ve encountered thus far, I can’t foresee any problems for the visitors today. Kansas City has the worst record in all of baseball right now (17-37) and the worst run differential (-96) so they are last in my power ratings. Yesterday was the major-leading leading eighth time that the Royals have been shutout this season. This team is averaging just 2.8 runs per game at home this season, second fewest in all of baseball. They’ve lost eight of nine overall and in seven of those games scored three runs or less. This is all “music to the ears” of Toronto starter Yusei Kikuchi, who is looking to bounce back after allowing three home runs (to Minnesota) in his last start. Previously, Kikuchi had allowed 2 ER or less in five consecutive starts (2.36 ERA in May) and he’s actually been more effective this season on the road than at home. Toronto’s lineup is firing on all cylinders right now as they’ve scored at least six runs in 11 of the last 13 games. They’ve lost only two times during that stretch (both to Minnesota) and that has them second in the AL East and in the top Wild Card position. I can’t see Brady Singer, the Royals starter for Wednesday, slowing them down. Not after he just allowed seven runs in his last start (also gave up three home runs). As the first two games have shown, this series is a total mismatch and KC is just 17-42 the L59 times it has lost the first two games of a series. Look for the Jays to win their eighth straight on the road. 7* Toronto | |||||||
06-08-22 | Tigers v. Pirates -107 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): Perhaps “blame it on the rain,” but the Pirates lost for just the second time in seven games yesterday, falling 5-3 to the Tigers. They just didn’t have enough answers for Detroit starter Tarik Skubal, who limited them to three runs on six hits in a strong seven-inning effort. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ own starter (Jose Quintana) pitched much worse than expected (he had a 1.73 ERA his previous seven starts), giving up four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. As alluded to earlier, the game was delayed for 2+ hours due to rain. I’m expecting a better start (and finish) for the home team today and will call for them to salvage a split of this two-game series. While it’s true that Pittsburgh has overachieved (in terms of wins) relative to its YTD run differential, a matchup with the Tigers - at home - should be ideal. Detroit comes in averaging a league-low 2.2 runs per game on the road. They are also dead last in runs scored overall. Before yesterday, the Tigers had dropped three in a row while getting shut out twice. This is a team that came into yday’s game batting a collective .198 on the road. So I expect Mitch Keller to pitch better than usual for the Pirates. In his last start, Keller delivered as a +270 underdog, beating the Dodgers after giving up just two runs in five innings. Given that result, he can certainly beat Detroit. The Tigers will counter with Alex Faedo. He’s been better than anticipated, going at least five innings in all six of his starts while never allowing more than two earned runs. But history says the team will falter here as they’ve won B2B road games only one time all season and that was April 14th & 15th at Kansas City. The Pirates are by no means a powerhouse offensively, but they are better than the Tigers at the plate. They’ve also won each of the last five times they’ve been off a loss. 9* Pittsburgh | |||||||
06-07-22 | Dodgers -125 v. White Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
9* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers have fallen into a bit of a “rough patch,” losing five of seven overall, but I’ve still got them comfortably rated as the best team in all of baseball right now due to their +113 run differential. I suppose some will want to make a case that the Yankees deserve to be #1 because they’re off to the best start at the one-third mark of the season in 20+ years. But still give me the Dodgers. Something I am even more adamant about is the White Sox having no business being within two games of .500. They have the fourth worst run differential in the American League at -56. Only Pittsburgh (+7) has exceeded its Pythagorean win total by a greater margin than have the White Sox (+6) so far. If you’re unfamiliar, a team’s Pythagorean win total is based on its run differential and how many games you’d “expect” them to win based on it. A team that’s being outscored in the manner the White Sox have been “should” have a record of 19-33 according to our old friend Pythagoras. The White Sox are being outscored by two full runs per game at home so far and are greatly outclassed in this matchup with the Dodgers. I’m stunned at the oddsmakers’ pricing on this series opener. The Dodgers are outscoring teams by nearly three full runs per game on the road! Now I understand that Mitch White is far from their most dominant pitcher, but Tuesday’s starter should do just fine in this spot considering the White Sox are hitting just .219 at home. White is being opposed by Michael Kopech, who allowed five runs in three innings his last time out and is due for some more regression (his xERA is two points higher than his actual ERA). This is the cheapest price on the Dodgers for any game all year. They’ve gone 5-2 the previous seven times they’ve been below -145 on the ML while Chicago is 6-14 as a ML dog (4th worst) including 1-7 at +130 or less. 9* LA Dodgers | |||||||
06-07-22 | Cubs -109 v. Orioles | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): While I don’t think that the Cubs’ ceiling in 2022 is particularly high, they should be able to move past Pittsburgh into third place in the NL Central. As for Baltimore, they’re destined for last place (again) in the AL East. It was a tough loss Sunday night for the Cubbies as they blew a one-run lead in the ninth and fell 5-3 to the Cardinals in extra innings. I faded them twice in that series, both times successfully, but they remain 4-3 over the L7 games and have been a better team away from the Friendly Confines this season. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup works in their favor, rather drastically. It will be Keegan Thompson on the mound for Chicago on Tuesday. Working both out of the bullpen and as the team’s sixth starter, Thompson is 6-0 in 2022 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has picked up the win in each of his last four appearances, the last one coming in the series with St. Louis. Baltimore has never faced Thompson before, already a disadvantage, and it’s not like the Orioles are hitting the ball well of late either. Over the L3 games, they’ve managed only 13 hits and gone 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position. They don’t hit righties particularly well (.223 in games vs. righty starters) and they are bottom five overall (all of MLB) in runs scored. As for the Cubs, they have been hitting right-handed pitching much better than the O’s have, and tonight they’ll be facing Kyle Bradish, who has really struggled as of late. Bradish has a 6.82 ERA and 1.545 WHIP on the season (somehow the team has won four of his seven starts) and those numbers jump to 10.03 and 1.885 over his past three outings. He’s allowed at least one home run in every start so far. Baltimore has just three wins over its last nine games. The Cubs are 31-15 L46 interleague road games vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Chi Cubs | |||||||
06-06-22 | Diamondbacks +105 v. Reds | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
9* Arizona (6:40 ET): After a horrific 3-22 start to the season, the Reds stabilized somewhat. But they are still just 18-35 overall and in last place in the NL Central. I’m a little surprised by the “respect” the market keeps showing them after they dropped three of four (here at home) to the last place Nationals over the weekend. Still, this is going to be the fifth consecutive game they’ve been favored on the money line. Now Arizona is coming off a losing series (1-2) in Pittsburgh and was shutout on Sunday. But I’ve got the D’backs rated as the better team here and in light of the pitching matchup, think they should be favored. Madison Bumgarner will be going for the D’backs tonight. The veteran southpaw has had a solid start to the season, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.196 WHIP through 11 starts. Last time out, he went six innings and allowed only two runs. But he was a hard luck loser as the team eventually went down 6-0 to Atlanta. That was his third straight start going six-plus innings, a positive sign. Now the Reds do come into this game averaging a league-leading 6.0 rpg here at home. But that’s a number due to regress and Cincy is just 4-11 its previous 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Reds are also 3-9 L12 as a favorite. The key for Arizona will be the offense getting on track after it managed only five singles on Sunday. They’ve scored just one run the L2 games. But the good news is the D’backs are 3-0 off their previous three shutout losses and will be facing Hunter Greene, who has a 6.19 ERA and 1.521 WHIP for Cincinnati. The Reds have lost 8 of Greene’s 10 starts thus far and only two times has he gone longer than 5 ⅓ innings. That means the bad bullpen will be in play here, offering Arizona more opportunities to score runs. The Reds are allowing 5.8 rpg at home, tied for most in all of MLB. 9* Arizona | |||||||
06-05-22 | Cardinals -137 v. Cubs | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:08 ET): The Cardinals were able to score four runs in the 10th last night, salvaging a doubleheader with the Cubs and giving them an opportunity to win this five-game series Sunday night. While it’s been a tough series with the Cubs, the Cards are a better team than most realize right now. They own the National League’s third best run differential (+52), which is significantly better than division leading Milwaukee (+28), whom the Cards currently trail by 1.5 games in the Central. With Adam Wainwright on the bump tonight, I look for the road team to pick up the series win. The Cubs are wedged in between the Pirates and Reds. That’s a sentence no team wants to read about itself. They’ve really underperformed here at Wrigley this season, going 11-19. That’s actually nothing new as, incredibly, the Cubs’ record in their L62 home games is 19-43! They are 6-25 their L31 games hosting a team that has a winning record! They’ve been competitive this week against the two top teams in the NL Central, but take note of St. Louis’ 4-1 record this year as a road favorite of -125 to -175 (21-7 in that role the L3 seasons) and that the pitching matchup for Sunday night is heavily skewed in the Cards’ favor. Wainwright has a 1.89 ERA and 1.105 WHIP his L3 starts and just threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against San Diego his last time out (with 10 strikeouts!). That made it six straight starts allowing 3 ER or less. Wainwright has typically done very well against the Cubs in his long career, including LY when he allowed just one run in 15 IP. Justin Steele goes for the Cubs here and he has a 7.50 ERA/1.583 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s been very inefficient his L2 starts (155 pitches in just seven innings) and multiple walks in five consecutive outings is yet another bad sign. The Cardinals average 5.0 rpg on the road. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
06-05-22 | Angels v. Phillies -115 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:35 ET): I’ll call for the Phillies (who I won with yesterday) to finish off the sweep here as these are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Phils greatly underachieved for former manager Joe Girardi as their record at the time of his dismissal was just 22-29, despite a positive run differential. They responded to Girardi’s firing by dominating the Angels in the first two games, winning 10-0 and 7-2. Last night was “all over but the shouting” after the first inning when Philly jumped out to a 5-0 lead. That was the Angels 10th straight loss as they are in major trouble right now. As I wrote yesterday, the Phillies were long overdue for a turnaround. It starts with what I mentioned before - they have a run differential (+16) of a team that should have a winning record. Having 10 one-run losses this year has really hurt. But things are now trending up, which you can’t say for the Angels, who are only three losses away from matching the longest streak in franchise history. It hasn’t helped that they’ve faced the Yankees and Blue Jays before this, but they’ve also only scored five runs total in the L5 games. That’s not enough to beat anybody. They clearly miss Anthony Rendon and Taylor Ward. Meanwhile, Mike Trout is a career-worst 0 for 23 slump. That’s gotta be music to the ears of Kyle Gibson, the Phillies’ starter for Sunday. Gibson has a 2.37 ERA and 0.824 WHIP at home and is due for some better results after the team dropped each of his L3 starts. Gibson has allowed 2 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. Visiting teams are only hitting .216 at Citizens Bank Park this season! The Angels counter with Patrick Sandoval, a lefty, While the Phils’ lineup does often struggle vs. southpaws, the fact they’ve scored 23 runs the L3 days gives me enough confidence. Plus, Sandoval allowed six runs in his last start (in only three innings) and the Angels’ bullpen has been bad over the last month (a big reason why they’ve allowed 6+ runs in 8 of the L10 games). 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-04-22 | Angels v. Phillies -176 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
6* Philadelphia (7:15 ET): Well, the “new manager bounce” (soccer term) certainly applied to the Phillies last night as they handed the Angels their ninth straight loss and did so in 10-0 fashion. Needless to say, the first game post-Joe Girardi couldn’t have gone any better in the City of Brotherly Love. Now as I’ve written before, the Phils had been drastically underachieving under Girardi. Despite their losing record, they’d carried a positive YTD run differential (basically the whole season), so interim skipper Rob Thomson is walking into a good situation here as the team was already due for better results. As for the Angels, things couldn’t be much worse right now. They’ve scored a total of three runs in the past four games. Mike Trout is hitless in the last five games and Taylor Ward, who has actually been the club’s top hitter, left yday’s loss with an injury. I just can’t see the Halos breaking through against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler tonight as Wheeler not only comes in with a 1.37 ERA and 0.966 WHIP his L3 starts overall, but he has a 1.48 ERA and 0.857 WHIP here at home. Wheeler has gone six starts in a row w/o allowing more than 3 ER and that’s while facing the likes of the Mets, Braves, Padres and Dodgers. He’s gone six-plus innings in five of those six starts. Wheeler’s 4-5 team start record is due to improve. The Phillies have the third most one-run losses (10) in all of MLB, which is what ultimately cost Girardi his job. The team is far better than its record and I project them to be back above .500 by the All-Star Break. Keep in mind their last three losses all came in extra innings. I look for them to hit Michael Lorenzen, today’s starter for the Angels, who will be making his ninth trip to the mound in 2022. It’s not that Lorenzen has been all that bad, I just can’t see him outdueling Wheeler in this spot. 6* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-03-22 | White Sox v. Rays -180 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): The Rays were able to battle back and earn themselves a four-game split of the previous series with the Rangers while the White Sox were just swept up in Toronto. I faded the Pale Hose in two of the three games, including yesterday’s 8-3 defeat. It’s pretty telling how the market has priced them against the likes of the Blue Jays and Rays. Note that in the previous two seasons, Chicago was a road underdog of +175 to +250 only ONE time. Today marks the third time in the last four days! What the market knows is that Chicago has no business hovering around .500. I’ve said this before myself, noting their woeful run differential (now -55). Not only is that worse than the last place teams in both the East (Orioles) and West (A’s) divisions, but it’s worse than Detroit. The only AL team w/ a worse RD right now is Kansas City, who has the worst record in all of baseball. The White Sox are simply a bad team and tonight’s matchup vs. Shane McClanahan isn’t about to change things. McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in the game this season. He comes in with a 2.01 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his 10 starts. Lately, he’s been especially dominant, turning in 0.95 ERA and 0.895 WHIP his L3 starts, all wins. McClanahan has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start here in 2022 and that probably won’t change tonight, facing a White Sox lineup which averages only 3.6 rpg. Vincent Velasquez goes for the White Sox and he’s got a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this year. The Rays are clearly the better team in this matchup and they happen to have a significant pitching advantage tonight. 6* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-03-22 | Cardinals +102 v. Cubs | Top | 14-5 | Win | 102 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): The Cardinals will be looking to avenge a 7-5 defeat to the Cubs last night where they trailed most of the way. St. Louis came into this series fresh off sweeping the Padres where they allowed only seven runs total in three games. They are still 29-22 overall, just three games off the pace in the NL Central and have the division’s best run differential. That’s well clear of the Cubs, who are actually behind the Pirates as well. Chicago has yet to win on Friday this season (0-5) and I believe that trend continues today. Miles Mikolas will get the baseball for the Redbirds today. He was roughed up in his last start (allowed six runs to Milwaukee), but before that had been very good. In fact, Mikolas hadn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his first nine starts! He checks in with a 2.67 ERA and 1.055 WHIP. His team start record is 6-4 and that would be even better with the proper run support. He’s received two or fewer runs of support in half of his starts. He shouldn’t need much support today given a 1.62 career ERA (11 starts) vs. the Cubs. The bottom line is I’m expecting another quality start from Mikolas. Marcus Stroman will start for the Cubs here. He ended what had already been a strong May with seven shutout innings against the White Sox last week. But I still remember his poor April and Stroman does have a 6.28 ERA here at Wrigley. The Cubs are a shockingly poor 18-41 their L59 home games, including 5-23 the L28 times they’ve hosted a team with a winning record. 9* St. Louis | |||||||
06-02-22 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -180 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
7* Toronto (7:07 ET): At the outset of this series, I said to look for a red hot Blue Jays team to continue winning at the White Sox expense. The only thing I’d change is that I should have taken them yesterday when they were available at a much cheaper price than either today or the first game. Toronto won the opener 6-5 and then 7-3 yesterday, making it seven wins in a row for them. Expect the domination to continue Thursday behind Alek Manoah, who is 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 13 career starts here at home. As I’ve also said previously, the White Sox have no business hovering around the .500 mark. They’ve been outscored by 50 runs this season. That’s worse than both the last place teams in the East (Orioles) and West (A’s). It’s worse than the 20-30 Tigers. In fact, the only team in the American League with a worse run differential than the White Sox is Kansas City and the Royals have the worst record in all of baseball! Averaging only 3.7 rpg and with a 7-11 record against teams that are .500 or better, the White Sox are simply not a very good baseball team in 2022. Manoah is very good for Toronto, checking in with a 1.77 ERA and 0.911 WHIP this season. So it’s not just here at home where he dominates. Manoah has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start. He’ll be opposed here by Johnny Cueto, who I faded last Saturday with my 10* Game of the Month play on the Cubs. Cueto allowed five runs in that start and when you consider the Chicago bullpen has the third highest ERA in baseball the L2 weeks, Toronto (averaging 6.3 rpg the last week) figures to score plenty of runs tonight. 7* Toronto | |||||||
06-01-22 | Giants v. Phillies -116 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (6:05 ET): The Phillies have lost five in a row and are proof that “If it wasn’t for bad luck, they’d have no luck at all.” This team is much better than its won-loss record (eight games below .500) and emblematic of that is today’s starter Aaron Nola, who carries a 3.56 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, but has a team start record of just 2-8. I did take Nola his last time out, which resulted in a win as he went 8+ innings with 10 strikeouts and allowed just one run. I obviously think Nola and the Phils are due for better results moving forward and to convince you further, I’m 4 for 4 the L4 times playing on or against them. It’s “on” this time. San Francisco was the most profitable team to bet on last season, making an insane 45.8 units as they finished and had the most wins of anybody in the regular season (107). Of course, they eventually bowed out to the Dodgers in the postseason. Coming into 2022, I figured there was no way the Giants wouldn’t regress, at least in terms of both wins and profitability. Their level of profitability was unmatched over the L20 seasons! Sure enough, they’ve been a slight money LOSER to this point in the season, even after beating the Phillies each of the L2 days. Carlos Rodon will start tonight for the Giants. He arrives in poor form with an 0-3 record in his L3 starts with a 7.80 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Rodon failed to beat Cincinnati his last time out. I just can’t see him matching up well with Nola, who has gone six-plus innings and allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his last starts. The Phillies’ last three losses have also ALL come in extra innings, so the “worm is due to turn” here, especially after yesterday where they went 3 for 17 with RISP and left 14 runners on base. The offensive numbers are set to increase here at home and skipper Joe Girardi (on the “hot seat”) definitely needs a win today. The Phillies are 10-3 the L13 times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-01-22 | Padres -114 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
05-31-22 | Nationals v. Mets -184 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
7* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Nats’ Pat Corbin FINALLY broke into the win column his last start by pitching six-plus strong innings and giving up only three runs to the Colorado Rockies. Previously, Corbin had been 0-7 in 10 starts (0-9 team start record). It’s difficult for me to see how Corbin would win again today as he faces the first place Mets, who have won four straight including 13-5 in yday’s series opener. That was the fourth time in seven games that NY scored double digit runs. They are averaging 8.9 rpg during that stretch. As you might expect from a matchup of the first and last place teams from a division, the former holds a 6-2 edge in head to head matchups this season. The Mets are 33-17 overall and have been living a bit of a “charmed life” this season. They’ve won six straight at home where they are 17-8 on the year. Second in the NL in team batting average (.264), again, they should have no problems roughing up Corbin, who is 5-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 22 previous starts vs. NY. Already, the team has lost twice this year with Corbin on the mound against them. Starting for NY will be Trevor Williams. While far from the team’s most dominant starter, he’s not allowed a run in three of his previous four appearances. Some of that has come as a reliever, but nevertheless I like his chances today against a Nationals team that is only 11-21 vs. righties this season. Washington is already a virtual lock to finish last in the NL East this season as they’ve been outscored by 61 runs. That’s worse than the Reds. Only KC and Pittsburgh have been worse in that regard. 7* NY Mets | |||||||
05-31-22 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -166 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
7* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have won five straight and I look for them to continue winning this week when the White Sox come to town. As previously stated here, Chicago has no business whatsoever hovering around .500 as they own a -45 run differential. That gap between expected and actual wins was a big reason why I chose to fade them Saturday with my 10* Game of the Month on the Cubs, who came in at +135 in a 5-1 win. Toronto is obviously a much better team than the Cubs, so no shock how I’m playing this one. The Blue Jays “should have” been a playoff team a year ago (+183 run differential), but were not, despite 91 wins. Most projected them to be in the field this year, or even to win the AL East. Right now, they’re third in the division, 5.5 games back of the Yankees. So they need to keep winning. Shouldn’t be a problem tonight with Kevin Gausman on the mound as he’s got a 6-3 team start record to go along with a 2.25 ERA and 1.036 WHIP. The White Sox are only putting up 3.6 runs per game this season. Lucas Giolito will start opposite Gausman here. Giolito has pretty good numbers himself and has actually yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. But you can look for Toronto’s numbers with runners in scoring position to improve moving forward. Also, the White Sox will be without Tim Anderson on Tuesday after he sprained his wrist Sunday. Chicago is just 2-5 after an off-day while the Blue Jays are coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the Angels out in LA. 7* Toronto | |||||||
05-30-22 | Twins -150 v. Tigers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -150 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
7* Minnesota (1:10 ET): Though they’ve been quite the pleasant surprise so far, the Twins were only able to manage a four-game split with the lowly Royals over the weekend. Look for them to take their frustrations out on another AL Central team Monday, the Tigers, whom Minnesota has had its way with thus far in 2022. The Twins are 5-1 so far vs. the Tigers and just took two of three from them last week. Minny is also 5-0 in Monday games this season. Detroit has been miserable offensively (just 2.7 runs per game) and doesn’t have the kind of starter on the mound today (Brieske) that can bail them out. Despite splitting with the Royals, the Twins have won 10 of 14 and eight of those victories have come by at least two runs. They are now 10 games over .500 for the year and enjoy a five-game division lead. Facing Beau Brieske, this Twins lineup should put up some runs. Brieske is 0-4 on the year with a 5.04 ERA and 1.385 WHIP. Recently, the numbers have gotten even worse, in large part due to a terrible start vs. TB where he was charged with six runs. When he faced the Twins last week, Brieske needed 90 pitches just to get through four innings. The Tigers lost 2-0. It’s believed that Brieske, a rookie, may be “tipping” his pitches, which is certainly not a good sign. Starting Monday for Minnesota will be Dylan Bundy. His recent numbers aren’t that great either as he was shelled at Baltimore earlier in the month. Bundy was 3-0 to start the year, but the Twins have since lost all four of his starts. He did not factor into the decision against Detroit last week, giving up just one run in 5 ⅔ IP. I think Bundy has pitched better than the numbers indicate as he’s allowed 1 ER or less in five of seven starts. As mentioned earlier, the Tigers have been dreadful at the plate this year. In fact, they rank dead last in MLB in runs per game (by a lot). 7* Minnesota | |||||||
05-28-22 | Cubs +130 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 130 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (7:15 ET): These were the only two teams in all of baseball that were off on Friday. It’ll be just a short, two-game set on the Southside this weekend. Earlier this month, the White Sox won a pair of games at Wrigley. But make no mistake about it, while May has gone better (so far) than April did for the Sox, this team has no business being .500 (22-22) on the season. They have a -42 run differential, which is indicative of a 17-win team. Last year’s AL Central Champions were absolutely hammered earlier this week in Boston. While they did manage one win at Fenway, the Sox gave up 16 runs in each loss! Now the Cubs are also coming off a humiliating setback, 20-5 at Cincinnati on Thursday afternoon. That leaves them eight games below .500 (18-26), one-half game behind the lowly Pirates entering Friday. But the Cubs are the opposite of the White Sox this year in that they are much better than their record. Only outscored by eight runs, you’d expect them to be a lot closer to .500 and the win expectancy was obviously a lot higher before getting beat by 15 runs. Only the Marlins have fallen further short of their win expectancy than have the Cubs. Meanwhile, only the Pirates have exceeded theirs by a greater margin than have the White Sox. Looking at the starting pitching matchup for Saturday, you’ve got Keegan Thompson going for the Cubs. This will be his third start. The Cubs have won the previous two and last time out Thompson threw five shutout innings. The White Sox Johnny Cueto has yet to allow a run in either of his two starts this year and he cashed as a +145 underdog against the Yankees last week. I don’t see it continuing for Cueto. His team is certainly due to regress, in terms of wins and losses, and has been outscored by a shocking 2.1 runs per game at home. They bat just .219 here. 10* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-27-22 | Marlins +130 v. Braves | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:20 ET): The Marlins have lost two straight (both to the Rays) and five of six overall. That leaves them at 18-24 overall on the year, but the Fish have a +12 run differential, which tells me they are better than that record. An MLB-high 14 one-run losses is the clear culprit as to why Miami has five fewer wins than “expected” (based on run differential), the largest discrepancy of any team in baseball right now. But I like the spot for them Friday night in Atlanta as the Marlins had Thursday off while the Braves lost 4-1 here at home to the Phillies. By the way, I cashed in on all four games in that Braves-Phillies series, winning on each team twice! In recent years, Atlanta has had Miami’s number. The Braves have taken the season series seven years in a row and produced double digit wins against the Marlins 15 of the last 17 seasons. They were 11-8 head to head in 2021, but this year, things look like they are changing. These NL East rivals have split the first six meetings of 2022. Ironically, two of Miami’s three wins have come by one run. It’s interesting to note that while Atlanta has three more wins than Miami this season, their run differential sits at -13. A case can be made that the Marlins have been the better team so far. Trevor Rogers will start Friday for Miami. The fact he is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA all-time vs. Atlanta, and just gave up three home runs (five runs total) when he faced them last week is a little concerning. But what’s not concerning is Rogers’ numbers on the road (1.29 ERA) and the fact he’s bounced back before from a poor outing. Last Friday was the third time Rogers allowed 5+ ER in a start this season. But off the prior two, he’s responded by giving up 0 ER in his next start (10 IP). Atlanta’s Ian Anderson has a losing record in his career vs. Miami and also a 6.92 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three home starts this year. Anderson allowed four runs and lost in last weekend’s series. The Braves managed just five hits last night without Acuna and Ozuna in the lineup. Acuna will be out again tonight. 10* Miami | |||||||
05-26-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels -155 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
7* LA Angels (9:38 ET): This looks like a mismatch to me, with favorable odds on the home team. The Angels, despite getting beat 7-2 last night by the Rangers, are off to a 27-18 start this year and battling for first place in the AL West with the Astros. The Halos certainly appear to be one of the most improved teams in all of baseball this season, and a lot of that improvement has to do with an offense that is 1st in the American League in runs scored. With a solid edge at the plate and in the starting pitching matchup for tonight (more on that momentarily), the home team is a solid play for Thursday. Toronto was expected to compete for the AL East pennant this year, but they are currently 7.5 games back of the Yankees and have a -7 YTD run differential. Toronto hitters are chasing way too many pitches out of the zone and the result is a lineup averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Over their L7 games, the Jays are batting a collective .217. They are hitting .221 on the road for the season. I don’t like their chances here against Shohei Ohtani, who comes in sporting a 2.82 ERA and 1.017 WHIP after seven starts. Oftentimes, Ohtani can be overvalued by the oddsmakers, but because his TSR is 3-4 and he’s facing the Blue Jays, we’re getting a really good price, in my opinion. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start tonight for Toronto. He’s been better since coming off the injured list, giving up just one run in 10 ⅔ innings. But Ryu is facing a very strong lineup here and he’s still allowed a lot of hard hit balls in those last two starts. Back to the Blue Jays’ offense, it is just 25th in runs and in the six games prior to Tuesday’s 8-1 win over the Cardinals, they scored three or less every time. An off-day isn’t enough to counteract the fact the Jays are simply the inferior ballclub in this matchup. Ohtani seems to hit better in the games where he pitches and Mike Trout is going to bounce back from last night’s unusual 0 for 4 effort at the plate. 7* LA Angels | |||||||
05-26-22 | Phillies +105 v. Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
9* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): So we’ve come full circle in this series, which began with me taking the Phillies on Monday. They won 7-3, but then it was time to “flip my support” to Atlanta each of the L2 days and they came through for me as well, winning 6-5 and 8-4. If you recall, in Monday’s analysis, I stated that - despite the teams having very similar records - the Phillies were probably better, based on the respective run differentials. The matchups didn’t work in their favor the L2 days, but here I think we’ll see Philly prevail and earn a split of this four-game series. I’m of course hoping to make it a 4-0 sweep! Aaron Nola simply does not deserve a 1-8 team start record. The Phillies’ starter for Thursday, Nola has a 0.994 WHIP this season and has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his nine outings. Yet he has not won since his first start of 2022, ironically when he allowed four runs. Four of the eight starts since have seen the Phillies lose by one run. I think it’s time for Nola’s luck to turn and it helps that he’s facing a team he’s gone 12-8 against with a 3.32 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The Braves are only scoring 3.4 runs per game when facing a right-handed starter and batting .220 in those contests. Atlanta will counter Nola with Kyle Wright, who has been solid thus far with the exception of a start vs. Boston on May 10th. But Wright has a 5.56 ERA when facing the Phillies and has never beaten them. The Phillies are putting up 5.4 runs per game on the road, which is more than they allow. That goes back to run differential as the team is +10, so you’d think they’d have a winning record. But they are just 20-24 in all games. Atlanta is 21-23, but they’ve been outscored by 10 runs this year. After a win, the Braves are just 6-15 and they’ve not won three straight at any point in 2022 (0-5 when off B2B wins). 9* Philadelphia | |||||||
05-25-22 | Phillies v. Braves -163 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): I’m 2 for 2 in this series, having cashed the Phillies on Monday and the Braves on Tuesday. I came into the series touting the Phillies as being better, based on the respective run differentials, but we also might be at a “buy low” situation with the reigning World Series Champs, who have the same record (as Philly) and are certainly capable of beating any team on a given night. Considering the way this line has moved (similar to yesterday), the Braves look to be the “right side” here on Wednesday. There was definitely some ninth inning drama last night as the Phillies took the lead 5-4 in the top half after a Bryce Harper two-run HR. Harper (4 RBIs) accounted for all but one of Philly’s runs last night. But Atlanta answered in the bottom half with two runs of their own, thanks to a costly error from Phillies’ CF Roman Quinn, to win 6-5. Obviously I’m biased, but it was a game that the Braves “deserved” to win as they outhit the Phillies and led most of the way. They are 10-4 at home vs. the Phillies the L3 seasons. The starting pitchers for tonight’s game will be Charlie Morton for Atlanta and Ranger Suarez for Philadelphia. Morton has been sharp of late with a 3-0 TSR, 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP his L3 starts. His last two starts at home have seen him give up just one run and four hits in 11 IP. Suarez is unbeaten on the road (3-0), but also off a bad start where he lasted just three innings and only threw strikes on 48 of 84 pitches. Call it a “hunch,” but the Braves have 25 hits in the first two games and seem ready to break out offensively. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
05-24-22 | Phillies v. Braves -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Yes, I backed the Phillies yesterday and made clear that I thought they were the better overall ballclub. That argument was mostly made based on the teams’ respective run differentials, however the significant edge the Phils had in Monday’s starting pitching matchup also could not be overlooked. Today, that advantage simply does not exist as Atlanta will send out Max Fried, who can almost always be counted on for a quality start. Look for the home team to bounce back from last night’s 7-3 loss here. Five times in his last six starts Fried has gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less (also known as a “quality start.”) He allowed just four runs total over a four-start stretch from 4/19-5/7 and that included matchups against the Dodgers, Mets and Brewers, the three division leaders in the National League. After allowing four runs to the Padres on May 13th, Fried bounced back by allowing just three runs in six innings in a no-decision vs. the Brewers last week. That was a game the team “should have” won. The seven runs scored by the Phillies in last night’s series opener were their most in any game since 5/14. It was also their highest hit total since that same game. So expect some offensive regression here, which is bad news for their starter Kyle Gibson, who comes in with a 6.27 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four road starts. Gibson hasn’t won on the road since last season. His last time starting on the road, he gave up six runs in just 3 ⅔ innings. Atlanta is 14-7 off a loss this season. 7* Atlanta | |||||||
05-24-22 | Cubs +100 v. Reds | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
9* Chi Cubs (6:40 ET): The Cubs came in and took the series opener here in Cincinnati, 7-4, despite the Reds hitting three home runs. The Cubs hit two HRs of their own though, both three-run shots, and that turned out to be more than enough. Other than their three homers, the Reds finished with just two hits and as you know this quickly has turned into a miserable season in the Queen City as the team is buried down in the cellar of the NL Central with the worst overall record in baseball. The Reds have been a bit better of late, winning 8 of their last 14 games, but four of their wins this month have come against the Pirates, who are the only team with a worse run differential. All things considered, I think this is a tremendous value to go against Cincinnati. The Cubs, despite being 17-24 on the year, have a winning road record (10-9) and a positive run differential (+1) on the year. Going back to their last series (vs. Arizona), the Cubbies have jumped out to a three-run lead in each of the last three games. I like their chances of doing that again here, facing Tyler Mahle. Despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, Mahle still has a 4.61 ERA. Two of his last three starts came against the Pirates, so take the 3-0 team start record with a grain of salt. The Reds are 6-22 off a loss this season and 5-19 in night games. The Cubs counter with Marcus Stroman, who has a 2.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP his last three starts. He’s deserving of better than a 1-5 TSR this season and after coming off the COVID list, he turned in five solid innings vs. Arizona last week. Stroman’s last start away from home saw him toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. 9* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-23-22 | Phillies -120 v. Braves | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): Though both teams enter this series eight games back of the Mets, with identical 19-22 records, I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have played far better than the reigning World Series Champion Braves in 2022. Philadelphia has a +11 run differential so far while Atlanta is -11. The last two weekends have seen the Phils be very competitive with the Dodgers, who are the best team in baseball, taking four of seven games including yesterday’s 4-3 final. The Phillies also have some revenge here after being swept late last season at Truist Park. I like the road team in today’s series opener. Bryce Harper is just 1 for 8 since returning to the Phillies lineup, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets going at the plate again. Really, tonight should be a big game for the entire Phillies’ lineup, which is averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road. They face Tucker Davidson, a lefty with just one start under his belt. Davidson did throw five shutout innings in that lone start, but also did allow 5 ER earlier this year in his one stint as a reliever. The Phillies have hit lefties relatively well thus far and would seem to be “due” for a big offensive game on Monday after 10 straight games of facing the pitching of the Dodgers & Padres. On the mound, Zack Wheeler should get the job done here for the visitors. Wheeler has allowed a total of just three runs over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA. In three of the four starts, he went at least six innings and didn’t give up a single run. He has 23 strikeouts against only two walks in his last three starts and last time we saw Wheeler he allowed just four hits against San Diego. The Braves have scored three runs or less in four of their last seven games (lost 4-3 Sunday in Miami) and they have a losing record at home. Wheeler has a 3.23 career ERA against them. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
05-23-22 | Rockies v. Pirates -120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): I know that backing the Pirates isn’t exactly the “sexy” move right now, but after being drubbed over the weekend by St. Louis (here at home), they should come out highly motivated for the opener of this new series. The Bucs are getting an ideal opponent in Colorado, who has dropped 10 of its last 13 overall, including six of nine on a recently completed homestand. The Rockies just played a doubleheader on Saturday, so that’s three games in the last two days for them and as we all know, they are traditionally a terrible team away from Coors Field. They are 1-9 L10 games as a road underdog. The Pirates were absolutely humiliated on Sunday, losing 18-4 to the Cardinals in an early start time. It was 7-0 by the second inning. But they should count on getting a better start here from JT Brubaker, who had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also threw six shutout innings of four hit ball in his lone start vs. Colorado last season. The Rockies just are not doing much scoring on the road this year, averaging only 2.7 runs per game, the fewest in the National League. Furthermore, when facing a right-hander on the road, the team is last in batting average, 29th in slugging and 29th in OPS. They are getting outscored by more than 3.0 rpg on the road thus far! Did I mention that, at home, Colorado was shutout on Sunday? Their current lineup is batting just .150 all-time vs. Brubaker. The Rockies inability to hit/score runs on the road is especially problematic tonight as they send Chad Kuhl to the mound. Kuhl has a 7.54 ERA and 1.754 WHIP over his L3 starts and the team has lost them all. He’s allowed 5 ER in B2B outings.As a former member of the Pirates, Kuhl knows PNC Park well, but I don’t think that will help him in this instance. The Rockies’ relief pitching is no better as they are last in bullpen ERA. Something else to note is that the team has lost its last six series openers. This is one of the rare times Pittsburgh is a justified ML favorite. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
05-22-22 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): I played Arizona Friday afternoon, noting that they’d taken the series opener at Wrigley Field (the previous day) without scoring many runs (3-1). They delivered with an easy 10-6 victory over the Cubs, scoring multiple runs in three of the first five innings. I laid off yesterday’s game, figuring the Cubs weren’t going to be swept at home this weekend and most of the way, that appeared to be a prudent decision. The Cubs led 4-0 after the third inning and appeared well on their way to victory still up 4-1 heading into the eighth. But then they allowed the D’backs to tie the game and in extra innings things were decided on a three run double by Daulton Varsho. The Cubs scoring twice in the bottom half of the 10th was not enough. Last Sunday, I took a team in this very same spot (at home, lost first three games of the series) and they came through with a victory for me. Now that was the Dodgers, who are obviously a lot better than the Cubs. But let me point out that Chicago should be a lot better than 6-15 at Wrigley this season as they’ve scored more runs here than they’ve allowed. Despite winning the first three games of this series, I’m not sold on Arizona long-term as they still have a -21 YTD run differential, despite their .500 record (21-21). The starting pitching matchup today certainly appears to be in the Cubs’ favor as they’ll send Wade Miley to the bump. The veteran Miley has made a pair of starts in 2022 and the most recent went very well as he held Pittsburgh to just one hit over seven shutout innings. Miley will be opposed by Merrill Kelly, who gave up EIGHT runs in his last start, lasting only two innings. Arizona pitching has allowed five or more runs in six of the last seven games. Only once in their history have the D’backs swept the Cubs at Wrigley and that was a three-game series in 2017. After letting one get away yesterday, I’m calling for the home team to avoid the four-game sweep. 10* Chi Cubs |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |