Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Minnesota has clearly been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season. That’s verified by the fact they are -23.4 units, making them one of the top four money-burning teams. But this series has gone well for the Twins. They’ve come in and won the first three games in Cleveland, the last two being a pair of 3-0 shutouts. It’s the first time in over two years that the team has won B2B games in shutout fashion. They’ve also matched a season-high with four straight road wins. But sweeping a four-game series on the road is hard to do and I don’t see that happening here. Prior to being shutout each of the last two days, Cleveland had homered in 20 consecutive games, which was the longest such streak in franchise history. Losing five of their last six games has effectively ended whatever faint playoff hopes the Indians still had left. But I’m a big believer today because of Cal Quantrill, who has pitched much better than his 6-12 team start record would seem to indicate. His last time out was the first time he dropped a decision going back to June 6th. He’d previously gone 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA over a 15-start stretch where he’d allowed 3 ER or less 13 times. Seven of Quantrill’s eight quality starts have come here at Progressive Field. Twins’ starter Randy Dobnak has had the Indians’ number in the past. His best start of 2021 came against them back on May 21st. But that’s also his ONLY win of the season! Following a near three-month absence (due to a finger injury), Dobnak returned to the mound last week and gave up five runs in a loss at Tampa Bay. He has a 6.29 ERA in six starts. Quantrill, unbeaten in 11 home starts with a 2.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, is the better pitcher in this matchup and I believe all signs point to Cleveland avoiding the sweep. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -154 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
10* Oakland (9:40 ET): When the A’s faced the White Sox last month, they lost the first three games of the series before avoiding a sweep with a 5-4 win in the series finale. That was in Chicago. They hope it doesn’t get to that point again here at home. It was a 6-3 loss yesterday to Chicago in the opener of a three-game set. The A’s have now lost four in a row (were swept in Toronto over the weekend) and have fallen 3.5 games back of the Wild Card. But with what looks to be a tremendous advantage in today’s starting pitching matchup, I’ll say Oakland won’t have to wait until the final game of this series to defeat the White Sox. The White Sox do lead their division by 11 games, matching the biggest edge for any first place team in the sport. But they are just a .500 proposition on the road (34-34) including 1-4 as a ML dog of +125 to +175. Note that they were NOT in that same price range for Tuesday’s game. A shockingly solid effort on the mound from rookie Jimmy Lambert is what keyed yesterday’s win. But it’s tough to imagine Chicago will get the same kind of pitching performance here from Dallas Keuchel, who has been just brutal of late. Over his last three starts, Keuchel has a 16.00 ERA and 3.111 WHIP. He’s allowed five or more runs in each of those three starts. The A’s will counter with Frankie Montas as they desperately look for a win this evening. Montas is working on extended rest here as he couldn’t pitch in the Toronto series due to visa issues. Considering how Montas has been pitching, the team has to be thrilled to have him on the mound Wednesday. They were 8-6 winners over Detroit the last time he pitched with Montas allowing just three runs and five hits in 6 ⅔ IP. Prior to that, he’d not given up a single run in 14 IP. There’s been only one start since the beginning of June where Montas allowed more than 3 ER. It’s a major edge with him opposing Keuchel. 10* Oakland | |||||||
09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
8* Arizona (3:40 ET): There’s an inherent risk when playing a bad team and that came back to bite me yesterday when I lost with the D’backs. However, I still strongly believe in everything I said in that analysis and will come back with the home team again today. Hosting Texas is one of the few times one can call a matchup “favorable” for Arizona. While the Rangers have matched a season-high with three consecutive road wins, they are just 19-51 away from home for the season. An offense that ranks 28th or lower in batting average, OBP, slugging & OPS now loses the DH and thus becomes even weaker. The Rangers only scored three runs last night, so my comments regarding the disadvantage they face in a NL park ring true. They got all three runs in one inning. Besides that one inning, they had just one hit the entire game. The key to the win were shocking efforts on the mound from Spencer Howard (who opened) and then Jordan Lyles, who came in having allowed the most hits and home runs of any American League pitcher this season. I just can’t envision a similar effort from today’s starter Kohei Arihara, who returned from injury last week. In each of his final three starts before getting hurt, Arihara allowed 5+ runs. Arizona starter Luke Weaver also made a return from injury last week. Unlike Arihara, he was victorious. He allowed just one run and four hits in six innings as the D’backs beat the Padres 8-3. In five starts at home this year, Weaver has a 1.32 ERA and 0.805 WHIP. He’s allowed a combined one run and nine hits the last three times he’s pitched. As mentioned above, Texas has not won more than three straight on the road all season. A four-game win streak, which is what they are going for this afternoon, would match a season-high. They are 1-6 when off three straight wins (of any kind) in 2021. 8* Arizona | |||||||
09-07-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -160 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Endorsements of the D’backs have obviously been few and far between in 2021. But facing the Rangers at home is one of the few times they actually have a distinct advantage. Texas is every bit as bad as Arizona is, when it comes to playing on the road. There are three teams in MLB that have hideous road records and these are definitely two of them (Colorado is the other). The Rangers are 18-51 away from home while the D’backs are 17-52. This game is in Arizona, which also means that an already weak-hitting Texas lineup loses its designated hitter. Yes, Arizona is the right side here. Here’s another edge for the D’backs today: they were off Monday. Now, after dropping eight of their last nine, they needed the off day. Especially on the heels of three very tough losses to Seattle here at home, two of which were decided in extra innings. Zac Gallen, who has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 ERA his L3 starts, will toe the rubber on Tuesday. He’s allowed just five runs, two unearned, and 11 hits in 18 IP. As alluded to earlier, the Rangers are very weak offensively. They rank 28th (third worst) or lower in team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage and OPS. Now you take away the DH from the already weak lineup. Texas was a winner yesterday, 4-0, as they ended up earning a split of a four-game series in Los Angeles. Prior to winning each of the last two days, the Rangers had even fewer road wins than the D’backs this season. I just can’t see a third straight win away from home. This is the first time since early May that Texas can say it’s won back to back road games. There have been only a pair of three-game win streaks on the road for them this season. Both times, all three wins came against the same opponent. Tonight’s starter Spencer Howard is still winless this season and has been terrible in the last three with a 9.82 ERA and 1.774 WHIP. 8* Arizona | |||||||
09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers +100 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): What was supposed to be a pitchers duel between Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff instead turned into a one-sided massacre as the Phillies crushed the Brewers 12-0 Monday afternoon. That was the Brew Crew’s fifth loss against the Phils in 2021 and they have zero wins against them. Certainly there’s no reason to panic in Milwaukee as the team still holds an 11-game lead in the NL Central. That’s the largest division lead in all of MLB. But they’d certainly love a win over the Phillies. I think they’re gonna get it tonight! Philadelphia came into this series having dropped two of three in Miami over the weekend. They remain firmly in the races for the NL East (1.5 games back) and Wild Card (2 games back). But a losing record on the road and a negative YTD run differential have me skeptical of their future. They hit SIX home runs yesterday, including a grand slam in the 8th inning that broke the game open. All but one of their 12 runs was via the HR. I don’t think that the long ball is going to be as big of a factor today as Brewers’ starter Eric Lauer has not given up a HR at American Family Field since June 1st. He’s coming off an impressive effort last Thursday in San Francisco where he allowed only one run and three hits in seven innings. Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola has never lost to the Brewers in seven career starts. That includes a win back in May. But there’s a first time for everything and Nola is off a terrible start in which he allowed six runs to the Washington Nationals last week. He also owns a 5.37 ERA in 12 September starts going back to 2019. I realize Milwaukee doesn’t have the best record coming off a shutout loss this season and they have more wins on the road than at home. But there’s a sense of pride that kicks in after a loss like yesterday’s. Look for a strong answer from the Brew Crew on Tuesday. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
09-06-21 | Phillies v. Brewers -133 | Top | 12-0 | Loss | -133 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): I’m travelling this weekend and will actually be at this game. On paper, it looks like a tantalizing matchup of starting pitchers with Zack Wheeler set to oppose Brandon Woodruff. But I am favoring Woodruff and the Brew Crew on Monday for several reasons. First off, they have revenge. Milwaukee got swept by Philadelphia back in early May. The Brewers were a much different team then. They are 30 games over .500 since Memorial Day Weekend and are poised to easily win the NL Central. Secondly, Woodruff has simply been better than Wheeler, especially of late. The Phillies’ starter has a 6.53 ERA his L3 starts. He’s given up a total of 21 runs the L4 starts. Wheeler was bailed out by his offense his last time out in a win over the last place Nationals. But he can’t count on a ton of run support tonight as Woodruff owns a 2.08 ERA at home. In 26 starts this season, he has a 2.35 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. The fact he’s not even the top pitcher in starting rotation (Burnes is) speaks volumes. The Brewers have also been awesome in day games this season, going 38-18. The Phillies are below .500 on the road after dropping two of three at Miami over the weekend. Milwaukee comes in hot as well. They’ve won six of eight including each of the last two days. They are the superior ballclub compared to Philly, so I just can’t see them losing to them again. Woodruff is working on five days rest here, a situation where he’s been at his best, not just in 2021 but throughout his career. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
09-04-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -167 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
9* Toronto (3:07 ET): I’m going to continue to ride the Blue Jays. If they end up making a run to the playoffs, then circle last night’s win as the potential catalyst. They came from behind three different times to defeat the A’s 11-10. Marcus Semien won the game in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run HR. While Toronto is still five games back of the Wild Card and needs to pass three teams, they have a run differential of +118 that is vastly superior to the other clubs they are competing against for the WC. While I was repulsed by Seattle again winning by one run last night, it was quite refreshing to see Toronto do the same. The Blue Jays have struggled in close games this season, which is why they are a game back of a Mariners team that has a -55 run differential. But the worm has started to turn a bit when it comes to the Jays and close games. Four of their last five wins have been by one run margins. I take this as a sign of positive regression and reason NOT to give up on their playoff chances. I look forward to a big Toronto win this afternoon. They enter Saturday now two games back of Oakland. This weekend is huge for the Jays’ playoff prospects. They’ll send Jose Berrios to the bump this afternoon as he looks to replicate his most recent outing where he held the Tigers to just one unearned run over seven innings. Berrios had 11 strikeouts, his most since his first start of the season, in the win. After scoring nine runs in the final two innings last night, the Jays have to be “flying high.” They’ll do damage against A’s starter Paul Blackburn. 9* Toronto | |||||||
09-03-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -146 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:07 ET): I’m sticking with the Blue Jays as they begin a critical three-game series with the A’s on Friday. As we’ve been through numerous times before, Toronto has drastically underperformed in terms of wins when you look at their +117 run differential (7th best in MLB). Based on that run differential, they’d be expected to have 79 wins on the season and be firmly in control of the AL Wild Card race. But they only have 70 wins and would need to pass three teams to get into the postseason. One of the three is Oakland, who did win yesterday afternoon (8-6 at Detroit) but is just 6-11 in its last 17 games. When measuring actual vs. expected win total, no team has underperformed more than Toronto this season. But this series opener looks to be a favorable matchup. Not only did Oakland play yesterday (while Toronto had the day off), the A’s were forced to call upon the bullpen more than they would have liked. Things were looking good with an early 8-0 lead, but then things got dicey as the Tigers got within two runs. Starting tonight for the A’s will be Sean Manaea, who has an 0-3 TSR and 9.00 ERA his L3 starts. Manaea has allowed seven home runs during that time. So I think Toronto’s offense, which has been less productive in recent weeks, is set to get back on track. Let’s not forget that after a nomadic season that saw them play most of their “home games” in either Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY, the Jays are now back in Toronto. Rookie Alek Manoah has a 5-1 TSR in home starts this season with 1.84 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Last time here, he held the White Sox to one run over six innings, a game the Jays won 2-1. Manoah followed that by holding Detroit to two runs on four hits in 6+ IP, another win for the team. C’mon Toronto, I’m not ready to give up on you yet! 8* Toronto | |||||||
09-02-21 | Brewers v. Giants -174 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (3:45 ET): Things have taken a drastic turn in the NL West. After leading the division for all of June, July & August, the Giants have slipped to second place, thanks to matching their longest losing streak of the season (four games). The last three losses have all come here at home to Milwaukee, a team that is definitely going to win its division (NL Central) and could be a potential playoff opponent. But I just can’t see the Giants being swept in a four-game series at home and apparently neither can bettors as this line has been bet up rather swiftly. Thursday’s starter looks like the right guy for the job. That starter is Logan Webb. Not only has Webb not dropped a decision since losing May 5th at Coors Field, he has a perfect 8-0 team start record at home this season. Over his last 13 starts, Webb is 7-0 with a 1.47 ERA. He has allowed 2 ER or less in each of those L13 starts. He last pitched on Saturday and threw seven shutout innings of five-hit ball in Atlanta. That happens to be the Giants’ lone win in their L6 games. When he faced Milwaukee on the road last month, Webb allowed just one run and three in six innings. He has 1.75 ERA at home for the year. There’s no denying that Milwaukee is also an excellent team, particularly on the road. But remember that they did just drop two of three in Minnesota over the weekend. Sweeping a four-game series on the road is pretty tough to do, especially when the opponent is as good as the Giants. Eric Lauer, a southpaw with plenty of experience pitching here in San Francisco, will start today for the Brew Crew. The problem with the former Padre is that he hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his L5 starts. That’s an even bigger problem now with Milwaukee having to use six relievers yesterday because of an injury to starter Brett Anderson. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
09-01-21 | Indians v. Royals -115 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals, like the Nationals, are another team hoping to avenge a prior sweep. They lost all three games in Cleveland back in early July. Their first attempt at revenge was unsuccessful as they went down 7-2 last night here at home. It was actually the Royals’ ninth straight time losing to the Tribe, a streak that goes all the way back to April. The Royals came into this series pretty hot, having won 10 of 14, while Cleveland was a real lucky winner on Sunday. Time for revenge to be exacted. The difference last night was Cleveland’s Amed Rosario becoming the first player in MLB history to go 5 for 5 with five RBIs while hitting an inside the park and traditional home run. That incredible individual effort came on the heels of a miraculous team rally on Sunday where the Indians, down 5-0 entering the sixth inning, ended up beating the Red Sox 7-5. They didn’t even have a hit in that game until the sixth. There is a chance the Indians may have to use a catcher from single-A for this game. Both teams have been toying around with their rotations. Logan Allen, who is having a terrible year, will start tonight for Cleveland. Allen has not recorded a win since April and the team is 1-7 when he starts. He’s made only three starts since April and the Indians have lost all of them. Kansas City has recalled Jackson Kowar from Triple-A Omaha to start here. This is only his third big league start. Despite the inexperience on the mound, the Royals still should win this game as they are certainly overdue to beat the Indians. Over the last month, they have been the better team. Salvador Perez had homered in five straight games going into yesterday. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
09-01-21 | Astros -122 v. Mariners | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* Houston (4:10 ET): As I’ve said numerous times before, Seattle is a team totally undeserving of its record. They have been outscored by 57 runs this season, which makes their 71-62 record pretty hard to fathom. Based on their run differential, the Mariners would have an “expected” win total of 60, an 11-game difference from their actual win total. No other team in MLB has exceeded their expected win total by more than five games. The Mariners beat the Astros 4-0 last night, thanks to an eighth inning grand slam from Abraham Toro. Par for the course for a team that has 27 one-run wins and is 11-5 in games decided in extra innings. I didn’t fade the Mariners last night. But I did Monday when they lost 4-3 and got a taste of their own medicine. In that game, Houston rallied late for two runs in the eighth. This Astros team is the best in the American League in my eyes. They’ve got a +173 YTD run differential and have won five of their last seven games. They’ve got a history of bouncing back from shutout losses. Yesterday was just the fifth time it's happened in 2021. They are 3-1 off their previous four and 10-4 in this situation the L3 seasons. A 37-18 record vs. the rest of the division tells me a bounce back is quite likely this afternoon. Seattle has a losing record this year when off a shutout victory. Logan Gilbert, their starter for today, has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts. Over the last three, Gilbert has posted a 13.50 ERA and 2.131 WHIP. He was rocked by the Astros for nine runs in 4 ⅔ IP when he faced them on August 21st. That ended up being a 15-1 final. Jake Odorizzi started that game for Houston and will again oppose Gilbert today. Odorizzi is now looking for a third straight win after holding Texas to two runs in a 5-4 win last Friday. Houston is SO MUCH better than Seattle and this line is LOW. 10* Houston | |||||||
08-31-21 | Cubs v. Twins -159 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -159 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Twins played yesterday, in Detroit, and won 3-2. It was a make-up game and I thought it was a pretty favorable matchup for the road team, which is why I took them. As I predicted, Minnesota got a great outing from Bailey Ober. Now starting a new series right after a make-up game may seem like a difficult situation. But the Twins are back at home and set to play the moribund Cubs, who have lost 24 of their last 31 games. The last time we saw the Cubs, they lost 13-1 to the White Sox on Sunday. That was the eighth time this month - and third time in the last four games - that they allowed double digit runs. Now they are in an American League park where the pitching staff must deal with a DH. Of course, that was also the case over the weekend when they faced their cross-town rivals. In the two losses to the White Sox, Cubs pitching surrendered 30 runs. That’s just hideous. I expect tonight’s starter Zach Davies to struggle considering he has a 5.00 ERA and 1.485 WHIP this season. The team is 4-8 in Davies’ 12 road starts. They are also 4-16 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. While the Twins are a last place team, it’s important to note that they’ve been priced as a 71-win team (that’s how many games they’ve been favored in). The two-time defending AL Central Champs have definitely been one of the bigger disappointments in baseball this year, but that doesn’t mean they can’t finish strong. Over the last month, they’ve won series against Houston, the White Sox, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. All of those teams are current division leaders! Tuesday starter John Gant is familiar with the Cubs from his time in St. Louis. Look for him to earn his first ‘W’ in nearly three months. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
08-31-21 | Phillies v. Nationals -107 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
9* Washington (7:05 ET): So my play on the Nationals +1.5 didn’t work out last night. They dug themselves too deep of an early hole. It was 3-0 after the top of the 1st. The Nats were able to climb back within a run after the 2nd, but another three-run from the Phillies (top of the 3rd) pretty much sealed the game. It was a poor effort from starter Josiah Gray, who saw a streak of three consecutive quality starts snapped. But Washington should get a better outing from Patrick Corbin tonight. I know that Corbin has struggled for much of 2021, but I think he and his team are due. The Nats have lost five straight home games to the Phillies. That can't continue. As I discussed in yesterday’s analysis, the Phillies aren’t exactly a good road team. They are below .500 for the year away from home (28-36). Yesterday, I took a chance in a game where they were heavily favored. It was their first win as a road favorite of -175 or higher in the last three seasons. Now there have only been five occasions in the L3 seasons where they’ve been favored by that much. But they were previously 0-2 in that role in 2021. Notable is that they aren’t getting that same kind of respect from the oddsmakers tonight. That probably has to do with Matt Moore being on the mound. The Phillies’ southpaw hasn’t been great this year. Somehow he does have a 5-0 TSR on the road despite not factoring into the decisions. He has a 4.37 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in those five road starts, so he’s certainly not deserving of his record. Moore also has an 8.00 ERA in three previous starts vs. Washington this season. The last time Moore pitched, the Phillies lost at home to Arizona. Like the Cardinals (another team I’m fading today), the Phillies have a negative YTD run differential despite a winning record. 9* Washington | |||||||
08-30-21 | Astros -151 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:10 ET): A quick glance at the AL West standings reveals that the Astros have a comfortable 7.5 game lead over the Mariners. But that lead should be so much greater. I say that based on the fact Houston has outscored its opponents by 176 runs this season, the second best differential in all of MLB. Meanwhile, Seattle has actually been outscored by 60 runs. Based on the respective run differentials of the teams, you’d expect Houston to have a 24.5 game lead! I think they work on rectifying this massive discrepancy with a win on Monday. Despite losing 13-2 at Texas yesterday, the Astros are well on their way to another playoff berth. I’ve got them rated as the second best team in baseball right now. They’d won four straight before yesterday’s debacle and are the highest scoring team in the league on the road at 5.5 runs per game. They should do damage here against Mariners’ starter Chris Flexen, who is 0-3 all-time vs. the Astros with a 9.64 ERA. Flexen allowed seven runs the last time he faced them. The last game between these teams took place on August 22nd and saw Seattle win 6-3 in extra innings. Typical win for the Mariners, who have lived off one-run and extra inning victories all season long. But prior to that win, Houston had scored eight or more runs in five consecutive games vs. Mariners pitching, including wins of 12-3 and 15-1 in the last series. Luis Garcia has a 4-0 TSR in his last four starts for the Astros while allowing just 5 runs in 22 ⅔ IP. The Astros are simply the better team here. 8* Houston | |||||||
08-30-21 | Twins -120 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): These AL Central rivals got real familiar with each other in July. They played 10 times last month. Minnesota got things going with a four-game sweep at home, right before the All-Star Break. But then right after the Break, Detroit returned the favor by sweeping three games in the Motor City. The Tigers then took two of three in the Twin Cities, including a wild 17-14 win, the last time they played. Although they both lost on Sunday, the Tigers and Twins have put together winning records in August. This is a make-up game and I think the road team is likely to take it. Taking two of three from Milwaukee over the weekend was impressive for the Twins. I faded them yesterday, a good call, but that had to do with the fact I simply could not see them sweeping the Brew Crew. Beating the Tigers sounds a lot simpler, especially with Bailey Ober on the mound. Ober has been really solid of late, allowing only three runs (one of them unearned) in his last three starts. I know that it hasn’t translated into many wins, but Ober has definitely pitched better than his WL record indicates. The Tigers’ offense has scored just seven runs in its last four games. The Tigers played three low-scoring games with the Blue Jays over the weekend and lost two of them. Incredibly, the team’s last eight games have all stayed Under. In 8 of their last 12 games, the Tigers have not scored more than two runs. That puts incredible pressure on starter Casey Mize here. Mize did win his last time out, but has a 6.89 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. He’s also allowed 22 home runs this season. The Twins are 9-3 off their previous 12 losses. It’s telling that they’ve been bet to the role of favorite here. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
08-29-21 | Brewers -155 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): For the first time since the All-Star Break, the Brewers have lost three in a row. The last two losses have come here in Minnesota. The Twins are not a team that the Brew Crew should be losing to, as few teams have disappointed more in 2021. At the betting window, Minnesota is down 24.5 units. Only Arizona and Baltimore, the teams with the worst records in each league, have been bigger money-burners. The Twins are last in the AL Central and have not swept a series since before the Break. Milwaukee looks to avoid the sweep today behind Aaron Ashby. This will be just the fourth career start for Ashby and his first in more than two weeks. While his ERA and WHIP in the previous three are 5.40/1.799, the Brewers have managed to go a perfect 3-0 when he’s on the bump. The poor numbers are all because his first start saw him give up seven runs - three of them unearned - to the Cubs in two-thirds of an inning. That was back in June. Ashby hasn’t allowed any runs in two August starts, though admittedly those spanned only six innings. While Ashby may have struggled in his big league debut, he wasn’t as bad as Griffin Jax was his last time out for the Twins. Jax allowed three homers and nine runs in Boston on Tuesday. That raised his ERA to 5.75 in nine starts. Milwaukee has the best road record in all of baseball (42-23) and I just cannot see them getting swept this weekend. Their offense usually improves on the road (5.0 rpg) and here they get to use a DH. The Brewers’ 36-18 record in day games is also among MLB’s best. They’ve had only two losing streaks of longer than three games all year, a five-game skid in June and six-game skid in May. A good bet to bounce back Sunday. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
08-29-21 | Red Sox -151 v. Indians | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -151 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:10 ET): The Red Sox look to make it a three-game sweep here in Cleveland. The first two games have been close, both of them decided by three-run homers from different Red Sox hitters. Jonathan Arauz was the hero in Friday’s 4-3 win, a game where Boston had only one hit through seven innings. Yesterday’s game went 10 innings and saw J.D. Martinez win the game. Boston can’t afford to let up; not with a slim 3.5 game advantage in the Wild Card race. These are the games Cleveland typically loses; they are 3-12 this season as home underdog of +125 to +175. The Indians are back below .500, which is not a surprise as they made their future intentions clear at the trade deadline. The inconsistent Eli Morgan will start Sunday’s game for them. Morgan has not fared well so far at Progressive Field where his ERA is 7.67 and WHIP is 1.61. He’s 1-5 here in seven starts. Last time out, Morgan only made it through 4 ⅓ innings and he gave up four runs. That was against a terrible Texas team that is last in the AL in runs scored. Boston is 4th overall in MLB in runs scored. Tanner Houck may still have yet to record a win for the Red Sox, but he seems to have solidified his spot in the starting rotation. He has a very impressive 47-7 KW ratio as he’s struck out six or more hitters in five of his last six starts. 8* Boston | |||||||
08-28-21 | Reds v. Marlins +102 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 102 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins have not beaten the Reds this season. They are 0-5 against them, losing 6-0 last night and were swept in Cincinnati last week. They are 1-11 head to head with the Reds since the start of the 2019 season. So it’s not been a favorable matchup for the Fish. But with Sandy Alcantara on the bump Saturday, I think they’re about to turn the tide. While Alacantara’s won-loss record won’t scare anybody, he has a 2.43 ERA and 0.927 WHIP at home. He’s pitched much better than his record this year. Cincinnati is trying to hold on to the second Wild Card in the National League. They’ve won six of eight, five of those victories coming against the Marlins obviously. I’m not convinced that the Reds are going to be able to finish in front of the Padres, the team they are competing with for that second Wild Card. I say that because of a pitching staff that has given up the fifth most runs in the Senior Circuit. It will be Vladimir Gutierrez starting on Saturday. He’s been good, but he’s a rookie and it’s getting late in the year. Innings have been piling up. Gutierrez and Alcantara opposed each other last Sunday and we obviously know who got the better of it. But Alcantara pitched well, save for the two solo homers he gave up. Those were his only runs allowed over seven innings and he gave up just two other hits. He also had a season-high 11 strikeouts.Over his L3 starts, Alcantara has a 1.23 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He really deserves a win this evening as does a Miami team that’s played better than its record in 2021. They are due to beat the Reds. 10* Miami | |||||||
08-27-21 | Blue Jays -164 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:10 ET): My view on Toronto has been well-documented throughout this season. I feel they are the most underachieving team in all of baseball. Despite a run differential of +113 (7th best overall), the Blue Jays are only six games over .500 and on the periphery of the Wild Card race. This is a team with an expected won-loss record of 75-51. Oddsmakers consider them a top six team in baseball and so do I. But after a disappointing 5-10 stretch, the Jays simply MUST get it going this weekend. Toronto is coming off a four-game split with the White Sox, not what they needed but far from an embarrassing result. However, dropping two of three at home last weekend to Detroit was downright unacceptable. The Jays now get a chance at revenge when they pay a visit to the Motor City for the next three games, starting tonight. Steven Matz will get the start and he’s pitched well of late (1.25 ERA in August) despite an unimpressive record. Against the Tigers last weekend, Matz gave up just one run on five hits. But Toronto ended up losing 5-3, emblematic of the kind of season they are having. Matz certainly deserves better than a 3-4 TSR over his L7 starts considering he’s allowed 2 ER or less six times in that stretch. I expect Matz to pitch well again here as the Tigers have been struggling to score of late. Over the last nine games, Detroit has scored two runs or less five times. That includes a 3-2 extra innings loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. Rookie Matt Manning, working on extended rest, will be the starter for the home team today. He was plagued by control issues last Thursday, a game where the Tigers blew a huge lead and lost 13-10. The Blue Jays are 26-13 vs. sub-.500 teams this year, so this is a matchup they really should dominate. It’s now or never and I’m not ready to give up on this team just yet. 8* Toronto | |||||||
08-26-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -154 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): It’s all about revenge here for the Phillies, who suffered an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the D’backs just last week. I can remember when the Phils were the hottest team in all of baseball. It wasn’t that long ago! They started August on an 8-0 run and were (temporarily) in first place in the NL East. Since then, they’ve lost 10 of 14 and are now five games back of the Braves. Can’t say that I’m all that high on the Phils, but hosting an Arizona team that is a horrendous 16-49 on the road should make for an easy win. The D’backs are off a win as they beat Pittsburgh 5-2 yesterday. At 8-5 their last 13 games, this is actually one of the better stretches of the season. But that’s pretty sad when you think about it and there’s no running from the fact this team is 42 games below .500. Remember when I faded them on Monday? It’s the same situation here. On Monday, they were coming off a win in Colorado. In each of the last two series, the D’backs lost the first two games. They are just 9-20 their L29 series openers. They also have not won B2B road games since April. Philly was just swept at home in a brief two-game series with Tampa Bay. But the Rays are one of the best teams in baseball. It’s an immense drop in class with who they are facing this weekend. Zach Eflin is making his first start in over a month here. I’m not concerned as he has 11 quality starts to his name this season and pitches a lot better at home than he does on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona’s Zac Gallen has won just once in 16 starts this year. The team is 3-13 when he’s on the mound. You have to fade the D’backs on the road at this price. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
08-25-21 | Rangers v. Indians -191 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
7* Cleveland (7:05 ET): Nathaniel Lowe had himself quite a game last night for the Rangers. He was 5 for 5 at the plate. It was his three-run homer in the first inning that really put Cleveland “behind the 8-ball” and it wound up being a relatively easy Rangers’ win, something you don’t see too often, especially on the road. It has been well over a month since Texas, now 16-47 away from home this season, has won a road series. They have a ton of players on the COVID-19 list right now, including the two pitchers who were supposed to start today and tomorrow. This is a game the Indians have to win. It will be Jake Latz replacing Spencer Howard in the Texas rotation tonight. Latz, who pitched at nearby Kent State University, is making his first career start in the big leagues. It is not as if he was particularly dominant “down on the farm” as he had a 4.69 ERA at Double-A Frisco and a 7.00 ERA at Triple-A Round Rock. The Indians’ offense didn’t manage much last night, but had previously scored 17 runs during a three-game win streak. They are 16-7 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175. So I expect the home team to swing the bats well tonight. Zach Plesac will be the starting pitcher tonight for Cleveland. He’s been inconsistent this year, but does have a 0.69 ERA in two previous starts vs. a Texas team that hits just .219 on the road (3.7 rpg). I was really shocked to see the Indians lose on Tuesday considering they had Monday off while the Rangers were in Boston. I find it very hard to believe they’d lose two in a row to the last place Rangers, who have won multiple games in a row just once since the start of July. 7* Cleveland | |||||||
08-25-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals -141 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (1:15 ET): I was shocked and appalled at what happened to the Cardinals last night. They lost 4-3 to the Tigers, thanks to Miguel Cabrera and Robbie Grossman’s back to back homers in the top of the third. By that point, the game was 4-0 and practically out of reach for the Cards. They did make a game of it with a three-run rally in the eighth. But in the end they were a run short. Today they’ll have to contend with a hot pitcher, but I just can’t see them dropping to 0-4 vs. the lowly Tigers this season. Starting pitcher Jack Flaherty having to leave Tuesday’s game with shoulder tightness was a major blow. Flaherty clearly “didn’t have it” from the start. He recorded only six outs and was removed after allowing the B2B home runs. Today’s starter will be Jon Lester. One of the more durable pitchers in the game, Lester took a line drive off his calf in his last start but still continued. He was not as effective as he’d been in his previous start, but the team still won, 8-4 over Milwaukee as +175 underdogs. That previous start had seen Lester go 5 ⅔ innings and give up just one run in what was a 7-4 win at Kansas City. Tarik Skubal has been excellent over his L3 starts for Detroit. He’s posted a 1.02 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 17-2 KW rate in 17 ⅔ innings. But his season-long numbers should give you some pause. Skubal’s ERA on the road is 5.11. His lone road win over the last two months came at Baltimore, the worst team in baseball. Despite losing five of their last seven, St. Louis still has a +13 run differential and .261 batting average over the L10 games. Over its L10 games, Detroit has been outscored by 20 runs and is hitting just .219. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
08-24-21 | Reds v. Brewers -173 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers have to like where they’re at right now. They have a 7.5 game lead in the division. Corbin Burnes will start Tuesday’s opener with Cincinnati, who is in second place. This series is a chance for Milwaukee to basically end the race for the NL Central pennant. I don’t know how you could go against Burnes right now, given that he’s 6-0 with a 2.01 ERA in his last 13 starts. He is second in the National League in ERA (2.13) this season. Really, it’s a crime that his team start record is “only” 13-8. Over his L3 starts, Burnes has allowed just one run in 21 innings. I know who I’m putting my money on here. Now there has been a strange trend in these Cincinnati-Milwaukee games. The road team has won 13 of 16 this year, including six straight. The Brewers swept a three-game series in Cincy right after the All-Star Break. That was after the Reds took all three games at American Family Field in the last series before the Break. I know the Brew Crew have a much better record on the road than here at home. But they are just a better ballclub compared to Cincinnati. Coming off a four-game sweep of Miami (at home), the Reds will start Tyler Mahle in this spot. Mahle is having a good 2021, but just gave up five runs in his last start and lost as a monster favorite (-315!) to the Cubs. Milwaukee’s offense has improved since Christian Yelich returned to the lineup. He’s hitting .356 the L11 games. But it all comes back to Burnes. In addition to not allowing any runs in his last two starts, he blanked the Reds for 8 ⅓ innings back on 7/18, a game where he had 12 strikeouts. The team has won his L6 starts. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
08-24-21 | Tigers v. Cardinals -188 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -188 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:45 ET): The Cardinals actually lost two games in Detroit back in June. Despite the current homestand getting off to a less than desirable start, getting the Tigers at Busch Stadium is clearly a more favorable matchup. The AL team won’t have the services of a DH in its lineup, which tends to be a disadvantage. It’s not like the Tigers do much scoring with a DH in the lineup anyway. Over the last seven games, they are averaging 3.1 runs per game while hitting a collective .213. They’ll face Jack Flaherty tonight and he has very good numbers on the year. Should be a blowout for the home team here. It wasn’t that long ago that St. Louis won six straight road games, sweeping both the Pirates and Royals. Now neither of those teams are very good, but the same can be said for the Tigers. I know the Cards just dropped two of three at home to the Pirates over the weekend and before that they’d lost two of three here to Milwaukee. But the Tigers are just 19-46 as road underdogs of +175 to +250 over the L3 seasons. The Cardinals are only 4.5 games back of the Wild Card, so they still have a chance. But they’ve got to get their scuffling offense going. After producing only nine runs in the last series, things should turn around here against Casey Mize, who has a 6.08 ERA in three starts this month. Two of those three starts saw Mize surrender three home runs. The Cardinals are 10-3 this season when Flaherty goes and he’s got a 1.74 ERA and 0.742 WHIP at home. Since returning from injury, the only two runs that Flaherty has allowed came on solo home runs. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
08-24-21 | Yankees v. Braves -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): These were two of the hottest teams in baseball going into yesterday’s series opener. Obviously, only one win streak could survive and it turned out to be the Yankees’, who have now won 10 in a row to move into Wild Card position in the American League. But the Braves are still fine, thank you very much. They lead the NL East by 4.5 games and I’m on the record as saying they WILL win this division. My confidence in that projection comes from the fact they have a +88 YTD run differential while the other four teams in the division all have negative run differentials. I look for the Braves to strike back tonight and end the Yankees’ win streak. Remember that Atlanta had also won nine in a row going into yesterday’s game. The entirety of that win streak came on the road. They lost 5-1 yday due to the Yankees getting a better outing from their starter and bullpen. I don’t think that will be the case again tonight as veteran Charlie Morton is set to toe the rubber for the home team. Morton is 12-4 this season and has gone 6+ innings in seven of his last eight starts. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of the eight. The Yankees haven’t exactly had the most productive year at the plate. They only average 4.1 rpg on the road and are minus the DH for this series. So that puts a lot of pressure on Andrew Heaney, making his fifth start for the team since coming over from the Angels. Heaney has a 6.55 ERA for the Yanks and really hasn’t impressed me, save for his last outing. Atlanta averages 5.1 rpg at home. Look for them to snap the Yankees’ win streak tonight. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
08-24-21 | Rangers v. Indians -160 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians are fresh off a sweep of the Angels this past weekend. The pitching staff allowed only two runs in that three-game series. After having Monday off, the Tribe will welcome in a Texas team that has spent all year in the basement of the AL West. Whereas Cleveland had Monday off, the Rangers had to play a make-up date in Boston. Even worse for them is that the game went 11 innings and they ended up losing 8-4 on a grand slam. A bad team off a gut-wrenching loss, playing on the road against a rested opponent, has all the makings of a one-sided ballgame. Go with the Indians here. The three-game sweep of the Angels has Cleveland back at .500 for the year (61-61). It’s highly unlikely that they are going to make the playoffs, But they definitely have a chance to pick up some more wins in this series. Texas is a horrible 15-46 on the road this year (54-118 L3 seasons!) and in the bottom two in batting average, OBP, slugging and OPS. They’ve been held to 1 or 0 runs in five of the last 11 games. So we should see Cleveland’s pitching, which was so dominant against the Angels, continue to succeed here. It will be Eli Morgan getting the starting nod on Tuesday. The rookie is coming off an excellent start where he gave up only three hits over six shutout innings. Cleveland’s offense has begun to turn things around a bit by averaging 6.0 runs over the L7 games. That’s bad news for Rangers’ starter Taylor Hearn, who is still winless after four starts and not someone you should expect to pitch deep into the game. Texas has lost 14 of 18 overall and 18 of 20 on the road. If the scheduling disadvantage wasn’t bad enough, they also just had to place four players on the COVID-19 list. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
08-23-21 | Rockies v. Cubs -125 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): It became clear at the trade deadline that the Cubs were waving the proverbial “white flag” on 2021. Even so, their record of late has been downright inexcusable. They have lost 17 of 20 games in August and are on a franchise-record 13-game losing streak at home. The weekend saw them get swept here at the Friendly Confines by the Royals and yesterday’s 9-1 defeat may represent a new nadir. But with their best pitcher on the mound Monday, I am going to call for a win! Colorado is 43-22 at home this season, but just 14-45 on the road. That’s the fewest number of road wins in all of baseball. The dramatic home vs. road splits have defined this franchise throughout its existence, but clearly 2021 has taken things to the extreme. The Rockies average just 3.0 runs per game away from home, compared to 5.9 at Coors Field. That’s just incredible. Sadly, their pitching gets even worse on the road where they give up 5.0 rpg. At home, they allow just 4.7 rpg. The Rockies did lose Sunday, 8-4 at home to the D’backs. Today’s pitching matchup obviously favors the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks actually leads all of MLB with 14 wins, which is remarkable considering the team he is pitching for. The Cubs won Hendricks’ last start 2-1 (at Cincinnati) as the righty gave up just one run and three hits over six innings. Antonio Senzatela has an 0-8 TSR on the road this year for Colorado, so no one has felt the brunt of the team’s road woes more than him. There’s really nothing “hard luck” about the TSR either, In the eight starts, Senzatela has a 5.80 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
08-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): These are the two worst teams in the National League. The Pirates have the slightly better overall record, but when you’re 44-80 on the season and have gone just 4-16 in August, there’s no reason to celebrate. That said, the Bucs did just take two of three from St. Louis over the weekend. If ever there was a matchup where they should be favored, it would be this one against an Arizona team that is a MLB worst 15-47 on the road and using a spot starter. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 their L10 games, making this one of their best stretches of the season. But as mentioned above, the road has been incredibly unkind to them in 2021. Over the weekend, they lost two of three games in Colorado. They did win Sunday, 8-4, thus avoiding a sweep. But I can’t see them winning here with spot starter Humberto Mejia, who will be making his season debut. Mejia just got called up from Triple-A Reno. His previous three big league starts all came with Miami last year and he did not win any of them (5.40). Even down on the farm he had a 5.93 in 12 outings. The Pirates counter with Wil Crowe, who has pitched better than his record would suggest. In four of his last five starts, Crowe has allowed 2 ER or less. This is perhaps the most favorable matchup he’ll get all season. Pittsburgh has revenge here as they were swept out in Arizona last month. Crowe did not pitch in that series, which saw the number of hits by the two clubs end up relatively even (35-34) despite the D’backs outscoring the Bucs 21-12. This time things will be different. This is an incredibly cheap price to fade Arizona on the road. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-20-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Arizona is in the midst of its most successful stretch since the end of April. They’ve won six of seven and for just the second time all year the D’backs are coming off a three-game sweep. But that sweep (of the Phillies) came at home. On the road, this team has been a disaster, going 14-45. That’s tied for the worst mark in MLB. Coincidentally, this weekend sees them facing the other team that has a 14-45 road record, Colorado. But unlike the D’backs, the Rockies are no joke at home. They currently sport a 41-21 record at Coors Field where they’ve won seven in a row. Home Field advantage has proven to be big in the NL West this year. Every team besides Arizona (who is 27-36 at home) has at least 40 home victories. Consider that only one other team outside the NL West has 40+ home wins on the season! The Rockies just swept the Padres here to start the week. This is a franchise that has long been defined by a stark home vs. road split. This season, that split has been taken to the extreme. The Rockies are 13-3 as home favorites of -125 to -175. Yes, I am fading Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert, who just threw a no-hitter in his big league debut. But that no-no came at home. Pitching in the thin air of Denver will be a much different experience for the rookie as the Rockies come in averaging a league-best 5.9 runs per game at home. Arizona is allowing a league-worst 5.7 rpg on the road. The Rockies just put up six or more runs in all three games vs. San Diego this week. Their starter, Austin Gomber, knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 6-2 TSR here this season with a 1.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. That includes six shutout innings in his last home start. The Rockies also had Thursday off, which is an additional advantage. 10* Colorado | |||||||
08-19-21 | A's v. White Sox -165 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox go for the sweep on Thursday. After winning the first two games rather comfortably, 5-2 and 9-0, they had to hold on last night for a 3-2 victory. It was a game defined by unexpected pitching changes. Originally, Oakland was set to start Cole Irvin, but the lefty got pushed back to today “in favor” of Paul Blackburn. The change likely had something to do with the news that Chris Bassitt will miss significant time. White Sox starter Lance Lynn lasted only four innings as he was ejected for complaining about a foreign substance check. Pretty clearly, the White Sox have shown a better ability to adapt in this series. They are now 42-22 at home this season, including 21-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175. The bullpen did its job yesterday, now it’s Dylan Cease’s turn to lead the way this afternoon. Cease has a 2.44 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this year and has been piling up the strikeouts of late. He also hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last seven starts. It’s certainly worth noting that the A’s have scored a grand total of four runs in the first three games of this series. This will be the 1st time Irvin is starting against a non-division foe since July 3rd. The lefty has a 2-4 TSR his L6 outings, although he hasn’t pitched all that poorly. But he’s facing a pretty dominant home team today and the White Sox are 38-14 their L52 games when facing a lefty. Furthermore, Oakland is just 1-5 when losing the first three games of a series. 8* Chi White Sox | |||||||
08-17-21 | Brewers -150 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:45 ET): St. Louis returns home following a 6-0 road trip. But the two teams they swept - Pittsburgh and Kansas City - are both in last place and a couple of real “lightweights.” While the win streak has the Cardinals five games above .500, they still have a -21 run differential on the year and more importantly they still trail first place Milwaukee by 10 games in the NL Central. The Brewers are the opponents to start this week and this is a big step up in class from what the Cards have faced over the L7 days. Talk about winning on the road - the Brew Crew have 40 road wins this season - the most in MLB. I love the fact that Corbin Burnes is on the mound today for Milwaukee. While St. Louis has scored 4+ runs in 11 consecutive games, there are only three teams in all of baseball that average a fewer number of runs per game. Burnes has been one of the top pitchers of 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in 20 starts. The team has won each of the last five times he’s taken the mound, four of those being quality starts. He’s allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his last eight starts. Last time out, he struck out 10 consecutive batters! In two starts vs. the Cardinals this year, Burnes has allowed only one run and six hits total (11 IP). The Brewers’ only loss in the last seven games was part of a doubleheader with Pittsburgh. They’ve now had two of the last four days off. This is one of the best teams in baseball and with this pitching staff, they certainly stand a chance to win the NL pennant. In case you couldn’t tell, I’m not sold at all on St. Louis, who sends Adam Wainwright out to the mound Tuesday. Wainwright has pitched well recently, but that’s because his L5 starts have all come against sub-.500 foes. I look for Burnes to dominate here and the Brew Crew to end the Cards’ win streak. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
08-16-21 | Braves -141 v. Marlins | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): The Braves have won four consecutive series openers and six straight when facing a left-handed starter. So they have to be ecstatic today as they open up a three-game series with Miami and face a southpaw in Braxton Garrett. The Braves are also now alone in first place in the NL East after sweeping a three-game series from Washington over the weekend. When you look at the respective run differentials of all the teams in this division, first place is definitely where the Braves belong. This is a tough matchup for Garrett, a rookie, facing a lineup where the entire starting infield has 22+ homers on the season. Miami is also coming off a sweep, albeit against the moribund Cubs. But a four-game win streak matches a season-high for the Marlins, who are now out of last place in the division. They passed Washington, who - as I just mentioned in the preceding paragraph - got swept by Atlanta.. The Marlins’ everyday lineup now features as many as three rookies. So I’m not exactly expecting a big stretch run from them. They’ve already faced the Braves six times in July and lost four of the games. The Braves are 41-18 the L59 meetings. Atlanta, who has won 10 of 12 overall and seven straight on the road, turns to Touki Toussaint for this series opener. Toussiant is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four previous appearances vs. Miami. When handicapping this NL East race, I have to come back to run differential. The Braves have scored 72 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Every other team in the division sports a negative run differential. So while both of these teams are coming off sweeps, the larger bodies of work clearly point to one team continuing their winning ways. That would be the Braves. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
08-15-21 | Blue Jays -108 v. Mariners | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
10* Toronto (4:10 ET): This has been a very frustrating series for both me and the Blue Jays. Seattle has won both games despite having fewer number of hits. Friday’s 3-2 win was very typical of the Mariners’ season as they have gone a MLB-best 25-14 in one-run games. They won on a bases loaded walk after a Toronto runner was called out at the plate (after review) in the top half of the ninth. Yesterday’s 9-3 final score was misleading in the sense the Mariners had more runs than hits and it was a 2-2 game heading into the seventh inning. I just can’t see Toronto being swept here. These teams enter Sunday sporting identical .534 win percentages. That is a crime. Toronto has the fifth best run differential in all of baseball (+122) while Seattle has a -42 run differential. The record in one-run games has been a big reason why the Mariners have overachieved so much this year, in terms of wins and losses. A team with their run differential would be “expected” to have a WL record of 54-64. A team with the Blue Jays’ run differential would be “expected” to have a WL record of 71-45. So you’ve got a situation where teams with identical win percentages “should” be separated by 18 games. That’s just incredible. Toronto lost George Springer to an ankle injury yesterday, which stings. But I still believe that baseball’s most underachieving team can get it done against the most overachieving team. Steven Matz began August with six shutout innings in a victory over Cleveland. He wasn’t as fortunate last time out, but two of the four runs he gave up were unearned. Logan Gilbert has an 11-4 TSR for Seattle, but hasn’t pitched nearly as well as you’d think. There have been six Gilbert starts this season where he did not factor into the decision and the team won by one run. He has an 0-2 TSR in August though. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-14-21 | Blue Jays -143 v. Mariners | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -143 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Toronto (10:10 ET): Last night was so typical of how the Mariners have been able to succeed this year in spite of a -48 run differential. They were outhit, but won on a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth. That came on the heels of a play at the plate in top of the ninth where Toronto runner Breyvic Valera appeared safe, but was called out after replay. Seattle is now 25-14 in one-run games, an incredibly fortuitous record. No team in all of baseball has overachieved more, in terms of wins & losses. Based on their aforementioned run differential, they have a win expectancy of 53-64. Their actual record is 62-55, a nine-game difference from where they “should” be. Toronto is quite the opposite of Seattle. They have a run differential of +128, which is fifth best in all of baseball. Based on that run differential, they have a win expectancy of 71-44. But here they are at 62-53, just two ahead of the Mariners in the loss column despite the vastly superior run differential. The Blue Jays are just 8-14 in one run games. They should be much higher in the standings and it would be a crime if they failed to grab one of the two Wild Card spots in the American League. They are certainly WAY better than Seattle. Both teams have been getting outstanding starting pitching of late and we’ve got a strong matchup tonight of Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Yusei Kikuchi. Ryu is off a rough start vs. Boston where he allowed seven runs, but the Blue Jays still won the game and are 6-0 in his L6 starts. Remember what I said yesterday about the Mariners offense. It ranks near the bottom of the league in all key categories. They are hitting just .208 at home! Kikuchi has actually pitched WORSE at home compared to the road. He is 2-4 in nine starts here with a 4.53 ERA. I’m “doubling down” on the Jays tonight. 8* Toronto | |||||||
08-14-21 | Astros -175 v. Angels | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:07 ET): The Astros are the #1 team in my personal power ratings and I’ve been adamant all season long that they will win the AL West. With a 4-1 win over the Angels last night, they were able to increase their division lead to 2.5 games over the A’s (who lost Friday). That’s obviously not a very large lead though, so the ‘Stros can’t afford to let up now. Fortunately, a +161 YTD run differential thanks to MLB’s highest scoring offense tells me they won’t. On the road this year, Houston is winning by an average margin of 1.6 runs per game. Look for them to beat the Angels again tonight. The Angels, who have dropped five of seven, are a game below .500 and pretty much out of the playoff race. They are 3-7 vs. Houston this year. Last night was the first time they’d faced them since May. So tonight’s starter Jaime Barria is not someone the Astros have seen this season. But they have faced him several times prior to 2021, including a game last September where they scored six times off him in 2 ⅔ IP. Barria, who has spent a good deal of time down in Triple-A this season, has looked good in three starts since being placed in the rotation. But here he’s facing a team that puts up 5.7 rpg on the road. Luis Garcia looked good for Houston last Saturday, pitching six shutout innings of two hit ball. It was the second straight home start where Garcia did not allow a run while going six innings. Now the road has been a bit of an adventure, but I trust him to get the job done tonight. The Angels have been held to three runs or less in five of the last seven games while batting a collective .222 during that stretch. Garcia allowed just three runs on five hits when he faced them earlier this season. 10* Houston | |||||||
08-13-21 | Blue Jays -161 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -161 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
10* Toronto (10:10 ET): This is a matchup I am very much looking forward to. If you’ve been following my MLB picks for any length of time this season, then you already know why I am looking forward to it. Here we have two teams with perhaps the most misleading records in all of baseball. Toronto is far better than its 62-52 record. At least based on their +129 run differential, which is fifth best among all teams! Compare that to Seattle, who is also in the AL Wild Card race, but has a -49 YTD run differential. While these teams are separated by just two games in the standings, the gap in their win expectancy (based on run differential) is 20 games! So obviously I’m siding with the Blue Jays Friday night. The Jays split four games with the Angels to start the week. They didn’t have any answers for two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani yesterday. But while they are facing a pitcher (Chris Flexen) that is tied for the 2nd most wins in all of MLB (14), he is nowhere near as dominating as Ohtani. Flexen actually has a 6.89 ERA and 1.723 WHIP his L3 starts. He did not factor into the decision the only time he faced Toronto previous to this as he gave up three runs in five innings. The Mariners are just 1-3 in Flexen’s last four starts. While Toronto did lose yesterday, they are still 12-4 in their L16 games. Their starting pitching has been outstanding during this stretch, posting a 9-1 record and 2.16 ERA. I expect a strong start here out of Robbie Ray, who faces a Seattle lineup that is near the bottom of the league in every key offensive category. At home, the Mariners are hitting just .209! They were lucky to get by the lousy Rangers each of the last two days, but had dropped five of six prior to that. Ray is coming off three straight quality starts and has a 2.90 ERA/1.074 WHIP this season. The Blue Jays are 8-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-12-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -160 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (7:05 ET): This game is taking place in Dyersville, Iowa at the “Field of Dreams” (as in the movie). It figures to be quite the spectacle on FOX tonight. I also believe that the White Sox are going to win big. Lance Lynn was slated to start for them yesterday, but got pushed back to tonight. Pitching was not the problem for the White Sox in yesterday’s 1-0 loss to the Twins, obviously. While it was disappointing to lose in that fashion Wednesday, the fact that they’ve got Lynn on the mound tonight makes the White Sox a much stronger play. The Yankees have surged in the second half, winning 12 of their last 16 to get into Wild Card contention. But they’ve been beating up on a lot of bad teams (Royals, Mariners, Orioles) lately and this will be a big step up in class. The White Sox are a top five team in all of MLB and have opened up the biggest division lead (10.5 games) in all of MLB. They also have revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at Yankees Stadium back in May. While some might be content to wait for this series to shift to Chicago, we can get a much better price on the “home team” here. I know the White Sox road record (29-28) isn’t all that great. But they’ve actually outscored their opponents by a full run per game away from home. White Sox pitching has allowed three runs or less in 7 of the last 10 games. With Lynn on the bump tonight, they’ve got a great chance to extend that streak. Lynn is coming off an outstanding July where he went 3-0 and posted a 2.10 ERA in five starts. He’s gone six-plus innings while allowing exactly one run in five of his last six outings. The Yankees are not a high scoring ballclub. They only average 4.0 rpg on the road. Andrew Heaney, who has a 5.45 ERA, is not going to be able to outduel Lynn here. The White Sox are 37-14 L51 games vs. a LH starter. 10* Chi White Sox | |||||||
08-12-21 | Reds v. Braves -140 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (5:10 ET): So my read on the Braves is seemingly correct. I took them on Tuesday and in that analysis I noted how they are the ONLY team in the NL East that has a positive YTD run differential. In fact, said run differential is significantly better than the four other teams in the division. I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a great predictor for future outcome (in any sport). It’s far more valuable to me than a team’s actual won-loss record. I only wished I had played the Braves yesterday as they beat the Reds again, this time 8-6 in 11 innings. But here’s another chance Thursday and I’ll call for the sweep. You may recall I noted the situational edge that Atlanta had going into Tuesday’s opener as the Reds were playing in their third different city in as many days. They won that game in come from behind fashion, 3-2. They actually jumped out to a big lead last night as it was 5-0 after two innings. The Reds were able to tie the game up and send it to extras, but a three-run Ozzie Albies’ HR ended it in the 11th. Losing two in a row like that has to be demoralizing for Cincinnati, who have seen their Wild Card hopes take a hit. Like the Braves’ division rivals, the Reds have a negative YTD scoring differential. So I don’t like their future prospects anyway. With a win today, the Braves would be in first place by themselves for the first time this season. They will hand the baseball to Kyle Muller, who has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts to go along with a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. I know that Vladimir Gutierrez has been equally as good for the Reds as of late. But the Braves have the edge in the bullpen. Also, with catcher Travis d’Arnaud back, the lineup is now deeper. This is a team that already averages 5.3 runs per game at home. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
08-10-21 | Reds v. Braves -102 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:20 ET): This is a tough spot for Cincinnati, who just had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in Cleveland. That was a make-up game from a May 9th rainout. It was supposed to be an off-day for the Reds, but now they find themselves playing in a third different city in as many days. It was nice when they got to face the lowly Pirates at home over the weekend, but you can’t play the last place team in your division every day. Meanwhile, the Braves did get to enjoy Monday off and they are a team I’ve got my eye on for the stretch run as they are the ONLY NL East team to have a positive run differential. Does Drew Smyly “deserve” to have a 3-0 team start record in his last three starts? Probably not. He’s posted a 1.917 WHIP during that stretch for the Braves and not factored into any of the decisions. He lasted just four innings all three times. But all three starts were on the road. He’s undefeated in four career starts vs. Cincinnati with a 3.12 ERA and beat them back on June 25th (allowed only one run in six innings). The Reds’ offensive numbers dip (by a lot) on the road and they are coming off B2B games where they scored just three runs. Sonny Gray is tonight’s starter for Cincy. He’s been no better than Smyly of late with a 8.16 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in his last three starts. The Reds’ bullpen (5.27 ERA) is also bad. The Braves’ offensive numbers go up (by quite a bit) at home. Back to Gray, he struggled some against Pittsburgh (lowest scoring team in MLB) in his last start, giving up four runs in five innings. I just love the situation here for Atlanta, whose +65 YTD run diff speaks well to how well the remainder of the season should go for them. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
08-10-21 | Dodgers -155 v. Phillies | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (7:05 ET): Despite coming into this game on an eight-game win streak, the Phillies are decided underdogs Tuesday. That’s because they are playing the Dodgers, who I have rated as #1 team in all of baseball in my own personal power ratings. For some, these distinctions may seem a bit odd. After all, the Phils are in first place in their division (NL East) while LA is in second in theirs (NL West). But just look at those respective run differentials. Philly, even with the win streak, has been outscored this season. The Dodgers have scored 171 more runs than they have allowed. Max Scherzer was acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline for moments just like these. Having come over from Washington, Scherzer is quite familiar with the Phillies. He’s 14-4 all-time against them with a 2.55 ERA. He actually pitched against them in his final start for the Nats and allowed just one run on three hits. He was every bit as good in his Dodgers’ debut, limiting a strong Houston lineup to just two runs on five hits over seven innings. Scherzer also matched his second highest strikeout total of the season with 10 in that game. The Phillies’ sweep of the Mets over the weekend got them into first place. They held the Mets to five runs in three games. But the Dodgers’ lineup is far more formidable. They’ve scored more runs than every other NL team and more than every team besides Houston. Aaron Nola, who usually has the oddsmakers’ respect, has now allowed four or more runs in five of his last eight starts. He gave up five his last time out in a game the team was VERY lucky to win (trailed 5-1 going into the ninth). The Phillies are just 3-8 coming off an off-day while the Dodgers are 41-17 L58 in that situation. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
08-06-21 | White Sox -162 v. Cubs | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:20 ET): I don’t think there should be doubt in anyone’s mind over just who is the best team in Chicago right now. The White Sox have lived up to the hype in 2021, building the largest division lead of any first place team in baseball. They are running away with the AL Central and no one is going to catch them. The Cubs basically “threw in the towel” at the trade deadline and I can’t blame them as they had no chance of making up a sizable deficit in the NL Central. They enter the weekend 13.5 games out of first place and have lost seven out of the last nine games. Don’t overthink this one. Now the White Sox have dropped two in a row themselves. Those losses came at the hands of Kansas City, a division rival that has curiously given them some problems all season long. But when not facing the Royals, the Sox boast an impressive 55-38 won-loss record. The road has been somewhat unkind to them (25-26 record), but what’s interesting about that is they have scored 4.9 runs per game away from home while allowing only 4.2. So that WL record should be better. They are 13-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07 ERA, 1.058 WHIP) should have little difficulty shutting down a National League lineup today. There has been only one time all season that Lynn allowed more than 3 ER in a start. That was against Houston, the highest scoring team in all of MLB. The Cubs aren’t even a good NL lineup as they are hitting just .227 for the year. Kyle Hendricks would have to turn in an amazing start today for the home team to have a chance, but he is just 1-4 lifetime vs. the White Sox. I know Hendricks is tied for the MLB lead in wins (13), but you wouldn’t know that from his “other numbers.” 8* Chi White Sox | |||||||
08-04-21 | Angels -164 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (8:05 ET): This is as big a pitching mismatch as you’ll see on the Wednesday slate and it’s pretty shocking the Angels aren’t bigger favorites on the money line. Shohei Ohtani, the two-way sensation who leads MLB with 37 home runs, will be making his first start since July 26th. Not including the All-Star Game, Ohtani made three starts in July. He won all three, posting a 1.35 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and a 17-1 KW rate. Were it not for one wretched start at Yankees Stadium on 6/30, Ohtani’s overall numbers would be even more impressive. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in seven of his last eight starts. At the other end of the spectrum, you’ve got Kolby Allard for the Rangers. He’s 0-7 his L7 starts, which is the longest single-season losing streak by any Rangers starter in franchise history. During this hideous run, he posted a 7.82 ERA. It gets even worse when you look at just the last three starts where his ERA is 13.14 and his WHIP is 2.028. Allard has given up seven runs in B2B starts, despite lasting just seven innings total. So, to summarize, we’ve got maybe the most talented player in the game starting for one team and one of the biggest money losers (-8.4) in the game starting for the other. If it was just a matter of Ohtani vs. Allard, maybe there would be SOME pause. But the fact of the matter is the Angels also beat the Rangers 11-3 yesterday. They got three hits and three RBI’s from top prospect Jo Adell, who made his season debut. Ohtani also drove in two runs. Ohtani won both starts against Texas back in April, the only two times he’s ever faced them. Allard’s lack of success is nothing new either. He has a 2-15 record the L2 seasons. Texas is one of the four worst teams in baseball and just playing out the string. The Angels’ Wild Card chances aren’t great, but at least they are still in the race. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
08-04-21 | Mariners v. Rays -151 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): This series has NOT gone as I’d anticipated. The Mariners have won the first two games, 8-2 and 4-2. But my read on the respective ball clubs has not changed. I continue to believe Seattle is vastly overrated. They are 58-50, but have a -48 run differential. Based on that run differential, they have an “expected” win total of 49. The nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. No other team has exceeded its expected win total by more than five. That the M’s are now 6-0 this season vs. the Rays seems preposterous, so I’m going with the home team yet again. Seattle is the ONLY team that Tampa Bay has played this season and not beaten at least once. Typically, the Mariners have excelled in close games (23-10 in one-run, 9-2 in extras), but tip your cap to them in this series as they’ve simply played better. But the Rays still only allow 3.3 runs per game at home for the season and Seattle is last in baseball in team batting average plus they are 29th in OBP. This should be a very favorable matchup for the Rays, who continue to lead the AL East and have a top five scoring differential in all of baseball. It’s very head-scratching to see what’s unfolded over the L2 days. Tampa Bay did outhit their visitors last night, not that it mattered. Seattle still has a losing road record, by the way. It’s all up to Josh Fleming today as the Rays starter hopes to give his team something resembling his last two outings. Fleming made one big mistake (gave up a grand slam) when he faced the M’s on 6/19. He didn’t factor into the decision nor did Lucas Gilbert for Seattle, who will again oppose Fleming here. Gilbert has an 11-2 TSR overall, including 6-0 on the road, despite mediocre numbers. Like his team, Gilbert is due to drop a decision here. I don’t care about the H2H record. Tampa Bay IS the better team here. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-03-21 | Astros v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): These are my #1 and #2 ranked teams in all of baseball. For Tuesday, I’m siding with #1 as the Dodgers look to have a sizable edge on the mound. Walker Buehler, one of the more underappreciated starters in the game today, has an 11-1 record in 21 starts to go along with a 2.19 ERA and 0.899 WHIP. He is coming off an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings against San Francisco, another top three team in my power ratings. That marked the 18th time this season that Buehler has gone six or more innings and allowed three or fewer earned runs. He was named “Pitcher of the Month” for the National League in July. It’s not that Buehler’s counterpart, Lance McCullers Jr, is bad. But he hasn’t had a particularly strong start to the second half. He’s given up four runs in B2B outings and those came against Cleveland and Seattle, two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball. The Dodgers have scored more runs this season than every team besides the Astros. But remember they have the edge here due to the game taking place at Dodger Stadium. There’s no DH for the Astros. Playing in the NL, the Dodgers 5.2 rpg average is probably more impressive than the Astros’ 5.5 rpg. Road teams hit just .213 at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers have gone just 6-8 since the Break. You’ve got to figure a big run is on the horizon as they look to catch the Giants, whom they trail by 3.5 games in the NL West. Houston just lost two of three to the Giants. So did the Dodgers right before that, but they bounced back to take two of three from the lowly D’backs, including a 13-0 win on Sunday. Houston is just 3-7 vs. the National League this season. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
08-03-21 | Mariners v. Rays -152 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -152 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): So it turns out that I was dead wrong on this matchup yesterday as the Mariners ended up winning 8-2 behind 6 ⅔ solid innings from Chris Flexen. But my assessments of the two teams still haven't changed one iota. Seattle is the biggest overachiever in all of MLB. Based on their run differential (-50), they have an expected record of 48-59. Yet they are 57-40 due to tremendously good fortune in one-run (23-10) and extra-inning games (9-2). Their nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB this season. (No one else greater than +5). Tampa Bay is 0-5 against Seattle this year, so they can feel my pain. The Mariners are the ONLY team this season to have an unbeaten record against the Rays. The fact TB was coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend makes last night’s loss even more difficult to fathom. The Rays are still in first place in the AL East, one game in front of Boston (who was idle yesterday), but the lead is just a single game. They can’t afford any kind of “August swoon.” The fact they have the fifth best run differential in all of MLB (+104) speaks well to how they should perform moving forward. Giving up eight runs at home (as they did yday) is highly uncharacteristic for Tampa Bay. They came into Monday allowing just 3.2 rpg at Tropicana Field with opponents batting just .209. Tuesday starter Luis Patino has a 0.71 ERA and 0.789 WHIP (phenomenal numbers) in three previous starts at home. He threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Yankees his last time out. As for Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi, he has struggled mightily of late with a 7.31 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Rays remain 65-24 L89 games as a home favorite, so this is a clear bounce back situation. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays -148 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): It all lines up for us here as Tampa Bay hosts Seattle on Monday. The home team has revenge from a four-game sweep that occurred out in the Pacific Northwest back in June. They come in fresh off a four-game sweep of Boston. After sweeping, the Rays are now in first place of the AL East, which is where they belong given their +112 YTD run differential (tied for 4th best). As for the Mariners, we’ve “been through it” with them before. No team has overachieved more this season in the sense that they have been outscored by 56 runs, yet they have a 56-50. A team with a -56 run differential has a win expectancy of 47. The nine-game difference between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB this season. But the weekend saw the Mariners get a taste of their own medicine. They are off back to back one-run losses to the Rangers. A 23-10 record in one-run games (including the B2B losses) and a 9-2 record in extras is how Seattle has been able to overachieve, record-wise. Those records demonstrate a tremendous amount of good fortune. I don’t see it continuing, especially here in Tampa. The Rays’ weekend couldn’t have gone any better and they allow just 3.2 runs per game at home (not to mention a .209 average). Seattle is bottom four in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS, including dead last in BA. The Mariners are giving up 5.4 runs per game on the road and Monday starter Chris Flexen sees his own personal numbers go way up away from T-Mobile Park. He has a 5.92 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in seven road starts. He also just gave up seven runs in his last start, which was at home. Michael Wacha is coming off a very solid July and has a 1.93 ERA/0.893 WHIP at home for the year. Homefield advantage, revenge and just being plain better. It’s all there for the Rays on Monday and I expect them to win very big. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-01-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:08 ET): Coming into this series, I felt the Rays were the better team. That may seem “convenient” to say now following a pair of four-run victories over the Red Sox. But, as my regular clients understand, I always keep an eye on the run differential column. For a while now, Tampa Bay has been well out in front of Boston in that regard. The Rays have outscored their 2021 opponents by 111 runs while Boston is “only” +48. So it’s not a surprise to me that TB is now up by half a game in the AL East. I look for the Rays to finish off the sweep Sunday night behind Shane McClanahan. This team is ultra-stingy at home, giving up just 3.2 runs per game and a .209 batting average. When they are scoring like they have been in this series (7 and 9 runs), it’s almost impossible to beat them at Tropicana Field. They have a 33-20 home record, including 14-7 as a favorite of -125 to -175. McClanahan, a southpaw, just suffered his first loss of the season at home. But it came in a quality start against the Yankees as he’s now allowed 3 ER or less in eight consecutive outings. You can count on him getting the job done here. While Tampa Bay has won three straight and 8 out of their last 11, Boston is on a four-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored by 24 runs. Nick Pivetta has a very misleading 14-6 team start record for the Red Sox as he’s allowed 4+ ER in three consecutive trips to the mound (7.04 ERA, 1.76 WHIP). Now he didn’t allow any hits in 6 ⅔ innings when he last pitched here in Tampa. But he’s struggled in four of his five starts since that time. The Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
08-01-21 | Brewers v. Braves -143 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -143 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:20 ET): The Braves are a team worth monitoring right now. They have the NL East’s best run differential (+50). They are actually the only team in their division with a positive run differential. Saturday’s 8-1 win over Milwaukee moved them into second place and kept them within four games of the first place Mets. Though the Braves are just 27-26 at home, they are averaging 5.3 runs per game here and I see them taking this series. Sunday starter Charlie Morton is unbeaten over his L8 starts. Darby Swanson did most of the damage for Atlanta yesterday, hitting his second career grand slam and driving in seven runs overall. It’s not easy putting up eight runs on this Milwaukee pitching staff, but the Braves did it and I think they are capable of another big game at the plate today. Starter Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road for the Brew Crew with a 4.50 ERA and 1.334 WHIP. He lasted only 3 ⅔ innings and gave up four runs when he faced Atlanta earlier this year. Recently, Anderson has faced a slew of poor opponents. This Braves lineup is much better than the likes of Pittsburgh, KC and Arizona. Morton is 5-0 over his L8 starts and is 10-3 for the season. Over those L8 starts, he’s allowed 3 ER or less seven times. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee in 2021. The Brewers couldn’t manage much at the plate in yesterday’s game. COVID-19 has rendered Christian Yelich out of the lineup as well as a few others. Atlanta is due to win here as they’ve alternated wins and losses in their L16 games, which is the longest such streak of doing so in franchise history. They have not had a winning record all season, but a win here gets them to .500. It’s time. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
08-01-21 | Reds v. Mets -165 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): After dropping the series opener on Friday, the Mets bounced back to win a 10-inning affair on Saturday, 5-4. The newly acquired Javy Baez was a big part of the rally for the home team, which ended the Reds’ four-game win streak and Joey Votto’s string of seven straight games with a home run. The NL East leaders now turn to Marcus Stroman, who has pitched MUCH better than his 10-11 team start record would seem to indicate. Look for Stroman to lead the Mets to a win on Sunday. Pitching is the primary reason as to why the Mets have been able to hold onto first place for so long. They are giving up just 2.8 runs per game at home this season, which is the lowest average in the league. Only two other teams allow fewer than 3.5 rpg at home and no one else gives up fewer than 3.2. Stroman has pitched great, whether he’s at home or on the road, with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the year. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 19 of his 21 starts and when he faced Cincinnati on 7/21, he allowed just one hit in eight scoreless innings. The Mets won that game 7-0. The Reds don’t hit as well on the road as they do at home. That’s pretty standard for most teams, but Cincy’s scoring decline when they leave Great American Ballpark is pretty substantial. They go from averaging 5.4 rpg down to 4.4. On the mound, rookie Vladimir Gutierrez is set to get the nod for them on Sunday. He did not fare well against the Mets on 7/19 (gave up six runs) and he has a 5.97 ERA and 1.646 WHIP over his L7 starts. The Mets are the better team, have the better starter and are at home. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
07-30-21 | Rockies v. Padres -195 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -195 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
6* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Padres are looking to erase the memory of earlier this month when they became the first team this season to lose B2B home games to the Rockies. The road has certainly been an adventure for the Rockies this year as they are an awful 11-39 and averaging just 3.1 runs per game. They are on an 8-37 run when priced between +175 and +250 on the road, as they are here, including 2-17 this season. Given last night’s 3-0 shutout, I see no reason why the Padres won’t win again tonight. They might only be in third place in their own division, but San Diego is one of the better teams in baseball. Only six teams have a better YTD run differential. It just happens to be unfortunate that they are in the same division as the Giants and Dodgers. But being in the same division as the Rockies is a benefit. No team in the National League has more home victories this year than San Diego’s 35. They should have won by more than three last night, but had two runners thrown out at the plate (in the same inning!). Ryan Weathers will look to replicate the strong outing Joe Musgrove gave the Padres on Thursday. Weathers was injured when he faced Colorado back on July 11th (the final day before the All-Star Break) and has only pitched one time since. That was last Saturday when he threw four shutout innings vs. Miami. He should pitch well here. Jon Gray has a 1-7 TSR on the road for the Rockies, who are 22-38 off a loss this season and 2-10 L12 games at San Diego. 6* San Diego | |||||||
07-30-21 | Reds v. Mets -133 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -133 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): I’m banking on a strong Mets debut from Carlos Carrasco here. Acquired on January 7th from Cleveland (as part of the Francisco Lindor trade), Carrasco has yet to pitch at the big-league level in 2021 after tearing his hamstring in Spring Training. He’s made three rehab starts, though those only lasted a total of 6 ⅔ innings. Keep in mind that Carrasco was expected to be the Mets #2 starter this year (behind Jacob deGrom). He’s 4-0 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime vs. Cincinnati, a team that is not nearly as strong at the plate on the road as they are at home. I like the Mets big here. Despite multiple injuries to its starting rotation, deGrom and Carrasco chief among them, the Mets have led the NL East for the last 83 days and are allowing only 2.7 runs per game at home this year. Visiting teams have hit just .202 at Citi Field. With Carrasco set to return and Rich Hill acquired in a trade yesterday, the Mets’ rotation should continue to excel down the stretch. As I alluded to above, the Reds only average 4.3 rpg on the road, which is a full run less than what they score at home. They did just have a productive series at Wrigley Field, scoring five or more runs in all four games. But it’ll be a big change here as they face a much better Mets’ pitching staff. The Mets did lose 6-3 to the Braves yesterday. However, that was a game where they had 12 hits and should have scored more. They went 1 for 8 with RISP. I expect better hitting tonight against Sonny Gray, who was tagged for eight runs his last time out and now has a 9.00 ERA and 1.867 WHIP his L3 starts. The Reds’ bullpen also remains a big question mark. Therefore, I’m calling for an end to a couple of streaks today - the Reds’ three-game win streak and Joey Votto’s six-game streak with a home run. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
07-27-21 | Astros -146 v. Mariners | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle HAS to be the luckiest team of all-time. Or at least in recent memory. They are certainly the luckiest team in all of MLB in 2021 as they’ve managed to go 55-46 despite having a -49 run differential. Their win expectancy - based on said run differential - is only 45. The 10-game difference between their actual and expected number of wins is by far the largest of any team this year. Key to them overachieving is a somewhat preposterous 23-8 record in one-run games (had three of those in the last series) and a 9-1 record in extra innings. But what happened last night may have been the most preposterous thing yet! Last night’s game saw Houston score six times in the top of the first and take a 7-0 lead into the bottom of the fourth. That’s when things changed dramatically as Seattle put together B2B three-run innings. It was still 8-7 in favor of the Astros heading into the bottom of the eighth, which is when “disaster struck” (I was on the Astros, in case you couldn’t tell) as Dylan Moore hit a grand slam to give the home team a win. It was the third straight day the Mariners came from behind to win. Two of those have come in the final time up to bat. I’m aware that the M’s have a 13-5 record with Tuesday starter Chris Flexen on the bump. But they are facing my #1 rated team in the American League, who has outscored its opponents by 141 runs this year. The AL West race should not be close and it’s a sham that Seattle is even in Wild Card contention. The Astros will counter Flexen with Lance McCullers Jr, who has allowed three runs or less in all but one of his 16 starts this season. McCullers has a lower ERA and WHIP compared to Flexen, despite having a worse record. The 11-run effort yesterday is not in any way indicative of the Mariners’ offense. At home, they are hitting just .205 and have a .281 OBP, both MLB worsts. Houston is MLB’s highest scoring team on the road and overall. They are on a 29-8 run vs Seattle. I am a BIG believer in the Astros tonight. 10* Houston | |||||||
07-27-21 | A's v. Padres -143 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Oakland hasn’t been hitting the ball well of late (.222 BA L7 games) and now faces the disadvantage of heading to a NL park where they won’t be able to use a DH. Even worse is that the NL park they head to is Petco Park where the host Padres are very stingy, giving up only 3.6 runs per game. The A’s just dropped three straight one-run decisions over the weekend (to Seattle), really tightening up the Wild Card race in the AL. San Diego has a much more comfortable lead in the NL WC race (six games) and despite being third in their own division, I have them as a Top 5 team in all of MLB. The Padres are just 5-4 since the All-Star Break, however all of those games were played on the road. A 9-3 loss at Miami on Sunday marked the 1st time since the Break that they lost by more than one run. Now they finally get to return home where their 33 wins are the most among NL clubs. They are also 8-1 in Interleague Play this season. Chris Paddack will toe the rubber in tonight’s series opener. Save for one bad effort vs Washington on July 7th, Paddack has been impressive in 2021. Especially his last time out when he shut the Braves out over five innings and gave up just three hits and no walks. Oakland will give the baseball to James Kaprielian, who also didn’t allow a run in his last start. But that was at home. The road has been less kind to Kaprielian so far as his ERA is 4.00 compared to 1.13 at home. Very early in the season, the A’s put together a 13-game win streak. Take that away and they would have a below .500 record. San Diego has been much more consistent this year and has a big-time edge getting this series at home. The A’s are 20-42 L62 IL road games vs. teams with a winning record. The Padres have won nine straight over teams that have winning records. 8* San Diego | |||||||
07-26-21 | Astros -170 v. Mariners | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
7* Houston (10:10 ET): Seattle is a team I flat out do not believe in. At 54-46, they are just 1.5 games off the pace in the AL Wild Card race. But this is a team that’s been outscored by 52 runs this season. That’s a comparable differential to the Tigers, who are just 47-54 on the year! In fact, with a run differential of -52, the Mariners’ win expectancy is 44! The 10-game gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball (no other team has outperformed expectations by more than four wins!). They are 23-8 in one-run games, including three straight wins by that exact margin. Ridiculous! Houston, who leads the AL West, is a team I very much believe in. I’ve got the Astros rated as the #1 team in the American League right now and #2 overall in MLB (Dodgers are #1). They’ve got the record to back it up at 61-39 and I see them coasting to a division title. The weekend saw the ‘Stros sweep a three-game series against the last place Rangers and they’ve won five of six overall. I’m not concerned about them hitting the road as they average 5.6 runs per game away from home, which is #1 in MLB. Seattle is averaging only 3.8 rpg at home while batting a paltry .203. The M’s are 30th in team batting average and OBP. Darren McCaughen, a rookie, will be making his first career big league start today for the Mariners. Injuries have decimated their starting rotation, which is the only reason he’s being called upon in this spot. It’s a very tough spot facing the #1 offensive team in baseball. Luis Garcia, facing the worst ranked offense in baseball, should do well in this start for Houston. Garcia shut Cleveland out for six innings in his most recent start, which lasted six innings. There have been only two times in 16 starts where Garcia has allowed more than 3 ER. I like the Astros big here. 7* Houston | |||||||
07-26-21 | Reds v. Cubs -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cincinnati missed out on a chance to sweep St. Louis again as they lost 10-6 on Sunday. Now they are set to face another divisional foe that they previously swept, that being the Cubs. It was Fourth of July weekend that the Reds won three one-run games over the Cubs at Great American Ballpark (2-1, 3-2 and 3-2). For the Cubs, that was part of an awful 11-game win streak that essentially took them out of the race in the NL Central. They’ve played better recently though and now get the Reds at Wrigley where they’re a strong 30-18 on the season. I expect the Cubs to gain a measure of revenge today. The Over was a winner for me yesterday when the Reds hosted the Cardinals. That ended up being a 10-6 loss for Cincy as they fell victim to a seven-run inning (4th) and never really recovered. Pitching has been an issue for this team all season and ultimately will be the reason this club does NOT make the postseason. The only National League team to have allowed more runs than the Reds is Arizona and everyone knows how bad the D’backs are. Wade Miley will start Monday’s game for Cincy. He’s been their best starter as he tossed a no-hitter back on May 7th and has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts. But he was fortunate to allow only two runs the last time he faced the Cubs as he also gave up 10 hits. Miley’s career ERA at Wrigley is 4.88. Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs. He’s 12-4 this year and has allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his L13 starts, going at least six innings every time out. With Hendricks, the Cubs have the edge on the mound in this series opener. The Reds have dropped six of nine since the All-Star Break - all at home. 10* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-25-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:10 ET): While the Red Sox may not necessarily be the best team in the AL East (Tampa Bay is), I remain far more skeptical of the Yankees being able to stay in this race due to a YTD run differential that is far inferior to the other three teams they are competing against. Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto are all +67 or better in that department. The Yankees are just +6. While they did pull off a thrilling comeback on Saturday, all four runs scored by the Yanks came in the eighth inning. The Red Sox are still 9-3 against them this season and won the first two games of the series. I think they will win this series. It certainly appeared that Boston was well on its way to a fifth straight victory when they took a 3-0 lead into the top of the 8th yesterday. But it was not to be. Martin Perez will start on Sunday, hoping to avoid a second straight loss to the Yanks and third straight loss overall. He took the loss last Sunday at Yankees Stadium after giving up three runs in four innings. But there was a stretch this season when Boston went 8-2 in Perez's starts. That was before the B2B losses. It was during that stretch that Perez led the team to a 5-3 win over the Yankees. All three runs that he allowed were unearned in that one. The Yankees will go with Domingo German, who has a 4.58 ERA in nine previous appearances vs. Boston. German has not lasted longer than 4 ⅓ innings in any of his last five starts. One would have to go all the way back to May 20th to find the last time he went a full six innings. German took the “L” opposite Perez in the aforementioned 5-3 game from last month. The Yankees are a weak offensive club while Boston is #3 in MLB in runs scored. Throw in the respective run differentials and the fact the Red Sox have owned the season series and a bounce back from Saturday looks rather certain. 8* Boston | |||||||
07-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals -118 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (8:10 ET): This is a revenge game for the Royals, who were swept here at home by Detroit last month. The Tigers come into this series playing their best ball of the season as they are 7-0 since the All-Star Break. But they are still four games below .500. That’s a lot better than where the Royals are at (16 games below .500), but - despite what happened last month - I remain skeptical of the Tigers’ ability to get the job done on the road, where they are 19-29 this season (and 55-102 the L3 seasons!) It’s telling that KC is the money line favorite for this series opener. The Royals do come into this game on a two-game win streak. Those wins came in Milwaukee as +170 and +140 underdogs, which is impressive. The Brewers are the first place team in the NL Central and top five in all of MLB in fewest runs allowed. So the fact KC was able to score 11 times in two games certainly deserves a “tip of the cap.” The Tigers give up 5.5 rpg on the road and the entirety of their current seven-game win streak has come at home. The last time they hit the road, they were swept in Minnesota. A nice edge for the Royals coming into today’s game is that they had Thursday off. They are 9-5 this season when playing with a day off. Meanwhile, the Tigers had to hold off the Rangers in a game where they got seven runs on just seven hits. I realize today’s starting pitching matchup seems to favor Detroit, but the Royals are 4-0 at home this season when Kris Bubic starts. The Tigers aren’t a great team by any means and thus this win streak of theirs is due to end sooner rather than later. Tonight sounds about right. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies -144 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Despite the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr (out for the rest of the season), Atlanta is not throwing in the towel in the NL East. Winners of this division each of the last three seasons, the Braves have the division’s best run differential (+30) and sit just four games back of the first place Mets. They are tied with the Phillies, who they just beat 7-2 on Thursday. Clearly, the deciding factor in last night’s game was a Darby Swanson grand slam in the third inning. The teams actually finished with the same number of hits (7). The Phillies have now lost three in a row after starting July on a 10-4 run. I expect the Phils to bounce back on Friday though, mainly because they’ll have Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler has easily been the team’s most consistent starter in 2021 w/ a 2.43 ERA and 0.995 WHIP. Now he has allowed a total of 11 runs in his last two starts. But prior to that, he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 15 of 17 starts. Wheeler has allowed only 4 HR’s over the previous three months, so the Acuna-less Braves offense won’t be having nearly the same success they did yesterday. For the season, Atlanta averages only 4.0 runs per game on the road compared to 5.3 at home. Over the last three games, Philly is a hideous 5 of 32 with RISP. That’s got to improve. Even with the loss y’day, the team is still 27-18 at home this season. They are one of ten teams with a win percentage of .600 or better at home. The hitting should get back on track today against Max Fried, who is not having the same kind of season Wheeler is. Fried’s first start after the All Star Break was impressive (seven shutout innings), but that was at home. On the road, he has a 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. The Phillies have had only one losing streak of more than three games all season (it was four) and that was in mid-May. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
07-22-21 | A's -138 v. Mariners | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* Oakland (10:10 ET): If you’re a regular client, then you know that Seattle is a team I just do not believe in. While only 3.5 games off the pace for the Wild Card in the American League, the Mariners’ 51-45 WL record is really as phony as it gets. They’ve been outscored by 52 runs this season, which would give them a “win expectancy” of 42. The nine-game difference between actual and “expected” wins is - by far - the largest in all of MLB right now. They’ve been propped up not only by a 20-8 record in one-run games, but a 9-1 record in extra innings. I believe this team is going to regress badly over the next couple months. The situation for Oakland here is good. They had Wednesday off. Seattle did not as they wrapped up a two-game series in Colorado with a 6-3 loss. The A’s have won their L2 games, both against the Angels. It was a 6-0 win on Tuesday, good news because they are 5-1 this season coming off a shutout win. Today they hand the ball to Sean Manaea, who threw a CG shutout here in Seattle back on June 2nd (allowed just four hits). Manaea has a 12-7 TSR this year and 3.20 ERA on the road. The Mariners are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They are dead last in team batting average and OBP plus 28th in OPS. At home, their BA drops to .203! How they have managed to go 29-20 at home with that kind of average is mind-boggling. I know today’s starter Chris Flexen has pitched pretty well at home this year, but he did not fare well here against the A’s back on June 2nd (same game Manaea tossed the CG shutout) as he allowed five runs. Oakland is 12-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 and I really like them in this matchup. 10* Oakland | |||||||
07-21-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -182 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -182 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
7* Toronto (7:07 ET): Mother nature did not cooperate yesterday as the Red Sox and Blue Jays were rained out. That game will be made up as part of a doubleheader on August 7th -- in Toronto. In case you hadn’t heard, the Jays have been cleared to return “North of the Border.” Because of COVID-19 restrictions, they haven’t played a game at Rogers Centre since 2019. Tonight is the final game in Buffalo and the Jays could really use a win seeing as they trail Boston by seven games in the AL East and lost to them 13-4 on Monday. Toronto has been forced to play its “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and here in Buffalo this season. Scoring runs - in either of these two parks - has generally not been an issue for them. In fact, they lead all of MLB in runs per game at home with 5.9! I think they’re going to produce here against Garrett Richards, who was originally slated to start yday’s game. Richards has a 5.40 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Blue Jays this season. He also has a 7.10 ERA and 2.052 WHIP his L7 starts overall. Boston reshuffled its lineup for the season opener and that certainly worked as they scored eight runs in the first inning en route to a huge win. But today they face Robbie Ray, who has been one of Toronto’s most consistent starters. Ray has a 2.93 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in all starts this season and those numbers are even better over his L7 trips to the mound. Ray beat Boston (at Fenway Park) last month, holding them to three runs in six innings. He struck out 10. The Jays wound up winning that game 18-4! 7* Toronto | |||||||
07-20-21 | Royals v. Brewers -165 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (4:10 ET): Kansas City comes in as the second lowest scoring team in the American League. Now they’ll be without a DH as they pay a visit to Milwaukee, who happens to be a top five team in all of baseball when it comes to the fewest number of runs allowed. Tuesday’s pitching matchup isn’t exactly what I’d call “favorable” for the Royals, in fact it’s quite the opposite as Eric Lauer (0.98 ERA, 1.091 WHIP L3 starts) opposes Mike Minor (9.00, 1.667 L3 starts). No need to overthink this one. Go with the home team. The Brewers actually have revenge here as they dropped two games in KC back in May. However, since that time, the bottom has really dropped out on the Royals. They were 20-22 following those two wins over the Brew Crew two months ago. They’ve subsequently gone 17-33 the L50 games. They’ve dropped six of the last seven and the second half began with them losing two of three - at home - to lowly Baltimore. On the road, this team has been outscored by 1.7 rpg this season. The Brew Crew started the 2nd half with a three-game sweep of the Reds. While I have some reservations about the offense (.223 BA is the lowest in the NL), this is a team with great pitching. Lauer is coming off three straight quality starts where he’s allowed a combined two runs on 10 hits. The Royals have lost Minor’s last four starts with him allowing 24 runs on 30 hits. Minor has allowed at least four runs in all four starts. I see the home team winning a low-scoring game today. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
07-19-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -126 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This is a big series in the NL West. The Dodgers would pull even with the Giants for first place with a win tonight and that’s exactly what I think is going to transpire. Los Angeles comes in as the #1 rated team in my own personal power ratings as they have outscored the opposition by a MLB-best 154 runs this season. The Giants have been a nice surprise - and certainly should be commended for having the best overall record in MLB. But does anyone really think they are as good as the Dodgers (or even the Padres?). The Dodgers are 6-3 vs. the Giants this season. Though they did lose Sunday, LA did win the first two games of that series with Colorado. That loss yesterday saw closer Kenley Jansen blow a save in the bottom of the ninth. Had he done his job, the team would be on a five-game win streak. Tony Gonsolin will start tonight. Though he’s yet to factor into a single decision, the team is 5-1 in his six starts and he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in the last three. He’s yet to allow more than a single run in any start (though none have gone longer than 5 ⅓ innings). Kevin Gausman will start here for SF. He has the 2nd lowest ERA in the majors right now, but is just 1-3 in seven career starts vs. the Dodgers. Winning at Chavez Ravine is not easy if you’re the road team. The Dodgers are +2.0 rpg when playing host, which has led to a 30-14 record. The Giants lost each of the last two days, scoring only two runs in the process. That simply won’t get it done on the road against the Dodgers, no matter who the Giants have starting. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
07-19-21 | Angels -103 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (9:40 ET): The Angels have revenge as they were swept here in Oakland last month. Shohei Ohtani didn’t pitch in any of those three games, but will start tonight. Following a busy All-Star Break, Ohtani was predictably fatigued as his team began the second half of the season by dropping two of three at home to the Mariners. But he did homer on Sunday. Oakland also lost two of three over the weekend at home (to Cleveland) as their grip on second place in the AL West is loosening. I expect the Angels, led by Ohtani, to take this series opener. Ohtani has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven outings. He did have the rough one at Yankees Stadium, but that was an aberration. In his first start before the ASB, he held Boston to two runs in seven innings as the Angels got the win there, 8-5. While he did lose here in Oakland back on May 28th, Ohtani allowed only three runs in six innings. The A’s have scored only four runs in the past two games, so I definitely expect Ohtani to pitch well tonight. Oakland was very nearly swept by Cleveland over the weekend. They won on Friday via a two-run walkoff. But as mentioned above, the offense didn’t produce much after that. They had just four hits yesterday. The A’s are only 28-24 at home and outside of one big win streak early in the year have basically been a .500 team overall. Cole Irvin has lost just once in his last seven starts, but has a 6.17 ERA the two times he’s faced the Angels. The A’s have lost six of their last seven series openers. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
07-18-21 | Mariners v. Angels -123 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (4:07 ET): Back on Friday, I said that I’d be looking to fade Seattle pretty regularly in the second half of the season. Reason being they have completely overachieved. While I was wrong to fade them on Friday, the Mariners are now 49-44 with a -54 YTD run differential after taking a 9-4 loss on Saturday. With that run differential, the M’s have an expected win total of 40. The gap between actual and expected wins is by far the largest of any team in baseball this season. They are going to regress and I’ll call for them to lose again Sunday. The win yesterday puts the Angels a game above .500. They have a -22 run differential, which isn’t great, but it’s certainly better than the Mariners. The Angels were able to jump out to an early 5-0 lead last night and never looked back. They did so against Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle’s only All-Star, so I think they are certainly capable of putting up a “crooked number” against Logan Gilbert today. The Mariners are 8-0 in Gilbert’s last eight starts, but the right-hander has gone a full six innings only three times all year. This will also be the Angels’ second crack at him. Patrick Sandoval will toe the rubber for the home team on Sunday. He threw a career seven innings in his final start before the All-Star Break, against Seattle, and allowed only two runs. Unfortunately, the Angels still lost the game 2-0. But look for a better result here as the team is putting up 5.5 runs per game at home. Sandoval has actually yet to allow more than three runs in any start this season. Seattle continues to be one of the worst offensive teams as they are last in team batting average, last in OBP and last in OPS. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
07-17-21 | Indians v. A's -172 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -172 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:07 ET): The A’s started the 2nd half in thrilling fashion, beating the Indians in the final at-bat last night. A Jed Lowrie 2-run walkoff HR ended it as the team improved to 53-40 on the year. They have a fairly comfortable lead in the race for Wild Card (3.5 games) and are now 5.5 games up on Cleveland. The Indians are really not a team you want to be betting on right now as they’ve lost 10 of 13, the only wins coming in a three-game sweep of Kansas City at home. Injuries are a real concern for the Tribe. So I expect the A’s to win again Saturday, probably a lot more comfortably this time. They send out Frankie Montas, who has a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP his L3 starts. He had 10 strikeouts his last time out, a 6 ⅔ inning effort where he allowed just one run on five hits. Montas has now allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. Cleveland doesn’t hit particularly well (.221 on the road) and they are second to last in all of baseball in on base percentage. So this should be another strong effort from Montas. I do not expect a strong effort from Indians starter Cal Quantrill. He has a 6.27 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in eight starts. The three (starts) that have come on the road have not gone well. He has a 9.29 ERA in those. The team is 0-3 in those three road starts. With yesterday’s loss, the Indians are just 3-13 the L16 games vs. Oakland. They are also 0-6 L6 road games overall. 8* Oakland | |||||||
07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels -155 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -155 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (9:37 ET): Seattle is a team I plan on fading quite regularly in the second half of the season. I know they finished the first half up 18.1 units. Only San Francisco was a more profitable team to bet on. But at 48-43 on the season, the Mariners have drastically overachieved. That won-loss record may not sound all that great, but consider for a moment that the M’s have actually been outscored this season by 50 runs. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to have a record of 40-51. That eight game gap between actual and expected wins is - by far - the largest in all of baseball. The Angels are 45-44, two games behind Seattle in the AL West, but do have a slightly better YTD run differential (-26). They also have two of the best players in all of baseball - Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. The latter has been hurt most of the year, but the former has dazzled - both at the plate and on the mound. It is interesting that Seattle had just one All-Star (Yusei Kikuchi) and he wasn’t even able to pitch Tuesday because of COVID-19 concerns. Meanwhile, the Mariners offense finished the first half dead last in all of MLB in team batting average and OBP. They are also 29th in OPS. These teams just met right before the ASB with Seattle taking two of three at home. Friday’s starter Chris Flexen won one of those games for the Mariners by tossing seven shutout innings. However, the road has been less kind to Flexen as he has a 6.97 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. The Angels come in averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season. So I expect enough support for Andrew Heaney, who did not pitch in the last series. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his last seven starts. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
07-08-21 | A's v. Astros -169 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -169 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
8* Houston (2:10 ET): It was MONTHS ago that I predicted the Astros would surpass the A’s in the AL West. That has already happened and now Houston can put even more distance between themselves and their division rival by finishing off a sweep Thursday afternoon. The lead over Oakland has grown to 5.5 games following wins on Tuesday (9-6) and Wednesday (4-3). What made me so confident in the Astros’ ability to surpass the Athletics was the respective YTD run differentials. Houston’s was always better and has now grown to a MLB-best +141. Oakland’s run diff is a far more mediocre +25. I expect the home team to finish off the sweep here. With them having won six in a row, I consider Houston the #1 team in baseball right now. They are 9-3 against the A’s this season. After yesterday’s win, the Astros are 19-5 this season when priced between -125 and -175 at home. Early on in the season, the A’s were quite fortunate in one-run games. However, that’s since changed with them dropping six of the last seven games decided by one run. They’ve lost 12 of 17 overall and are 0-5-1 the L6 series. Not only are the teams headed in opposite directions, but so are today’s two starting pitchers. Lance McCullers hasn’t dropped a decision since April and is 5-0 since that time with a 2.38 ERA. The team has won each of his last four outings. McCullers is also 6-2 in 11 career starts vs. Oakland, two of those coming this year where he allowed only two runs on four hits in 10 IP. Trending in the opposite direction is the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, who is 2-5 with a 4.38 ERA his L9 starts. The team has lost each of his L3 times out. Trust the numbers on this one. Houston is simply much better. 8* Houston | |||||||
07-07-21 | Cardinals v. Giants -171 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
7* San Francisco (9:45 ET): The Giants are looking to avoid a three-game sweep here at home vs. St. Louis. They’ve lost the first two games 5-3 and 6-5, dropping them to 3-6 the L9 games. They do continue to lead the NL West though as the Dodgers have also lost their last two games. But that lead is a tenuous one with only one-half game separating the two California rivals. There can be no argument against the fact San Francisco has been the most pleasant surprise in all of baseball in 2021 as they are +20.3 units at the betting window and have the best overall won-loss record. I see them avoiding the sweep. St. Louis is not a great team, so the fact they could come into San Fran and take the first two games has been a bit surprising. The Cardinals are now a game within .500, but they’ve been outscored by 38 runs this year, so this is clearly a below average ballclub. They are 3-12 this season when priced between +125 and +175 on the road. The Giants, meanwhile, are not only 26-13 overall at home but 4-1 when priced -175 or higher on the money line. The NL West leaders are also 20-10 off a loss. Johan Oviedo is still in search of his first win this season for St. Louis. He’s 0-4 in 10 starts and the road has been especially unkind with a 6.20 ERA and 2.017 WHIP. The team did win his last start, at Colorado, but that was only after scoring six runs in extra innings. Alex Wood goes for the home team tonight and he is looking to win a third straight decision. He has allowed just three runs in his last two starts. The Giants are 4-1 the last five times he’s taken the mound. Visiting teams hit just .211 here in SF and St. Louis is hitting just .217 for the year away from home. So it’s hard for me to see another decent game at the plate from them. 7* San Francisco | |||||||
07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): In a season where virtually NOTHING has gone right for the D’backs, starter Merrill Kelly has been something of a “good luck charm.” The team has won his last three starts, which may not sound all that awe-inspiring, but consider for a moment that Arizona has lost 50 of its last 58 games! Obviously, you’ve got to be rather selective about taking them (to say the least!) and it’s not something I plan on doing very often. But hosting a Colorado team and having revenge for a prior three-game sweep is enticing enough for me. The Rockies are coming off a 6-1 homestand and I had them Sunday in a come from behind effort against the Cardinals. They scored a run in the eighth and ninth innings to prevail 3-2. But sadly (for them) they must now bid adieu to Coors Field and hit the road. There is no worse team on the road than this one as the Rockies’ record away from Denver is a hideous 6-31. Over the last three weeks, they’ve played just two series (and five games) away from home. Overall, they’ve lost eight of their last nine road games. Today’s starter Jon Gray has an 0-5 TSR on the road this season. Kelly has essentially carried Arizona to wins in each of his last three starts. He has a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during that time. All three starts were quality as he’s allowed just four runs in 20 IP. Even more impressive is who he’s beaten. San Francisco, Milwaukee and San Diego were the victims. All three are potential playoff teams with two being NL division leaders. If Kelly can beat those teams, then he certainly can beat MLB’s worst road team, which hits a pathetic .196 outside of Coors Field while scoring just 2.6 runs per game. 8* Arizona | |||||||
07-05-21 | Phillies v. Cubs -125 | Top | 13-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Cubs have lost nine in a row and 15 out of their last 19 games. Most of those losses have come on the road, including the nine straight. Finally, they get back to the “Friendly Confines” (of Wrigley Field) on Monday and they’ll be hosting the Phillies, who got beat 11-1 on Sunday. The Cubs are 26-13 at home this season and 94-58 here since the start of 2019. The Phillies are 15-26 on the road this year and 62-90 since the start of 2019. Look for the Cubs to snap the losing skid. Six of the Cubs’ nine straight losses have been by one run. That includes four of the last five and the last three vs. the Reds. This offense needs to wake up and should today against Matt Moore, who has a 7.10 ERA his last three outings. He has a 1.875 WHIP for the season as well. He did just throw five shutout innings vs. the Mets last time out, but that’s unlikely to be repeated. The Cubs average 4.8 rpg at home. Yesterday marked the third time in the last six games that the Phillies allowed 11 or more runs. They’ve allowed 10 or more runs 11 times. I have them rated as the worst team in the NL East. Zach Davies has a 6-2 TSR at home for the Cubs. I just think this one boils down to homefield advantage as well as the notion that the Cubs are “due.” They’re a better team than the Phillies anyway. 10* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-05-21 | Braves -184 v. Pirates | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -184 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves come in as winners of four of their last five games. That particular streak began with a 20-2 beatdown of the Mets last Wednesday. Believe it or not, that was NOT the 1st time the Braves scored 20 runs in a game this year. They also did so May 21st vs. Pittsburgh, a series they’d go on to take three of four. They outscored the Bucs 33-3 in the three wins and since that time Pittsburgh has gotten no better. They did win Sunday, but that was only after six straight losses where they scored a total of eight runs. Even in victory yday, they could manage only two runs. The Pirates are in last place in the Central with a 30-53 record. They’ve been outscored by 116 runs. It’s pretty clear that they are one of the three worst teams in baseball right now (Orioles, D’backs being the others). To score only 10 runs in seven games is pretty lousy. Starting today is Chase DeJong and I don’t think he’s good enough to keep his team in this one. Not only is De Jong still winless on the year, but he has a 6.58 ERA and 1.756 WHIP in his last three starts. This game is very important for Atlanta as they try yet again to reach .500. It’s a plateau they’ve tried and failed to reach six different times in 2021. I think a matchup with Pittsburgh is what should get them (finally) over the hump. Max Fried gets the starting nod. He has a 0.889 WHIP in his last three starts after being the starter in that 20-2 win over the Mets last week. Fried has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. The Braves have won 11 of 18 overall. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
07-04-21 | Giants -170 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (9:10 ET): Playing against Arizona is like “taking candy from a baby.” If you’d simply wagered against them in every game this season, then you’d be up 34.6 units. No team even really comes close to that and it should surprise none of you to know I’ve got the D’backs last in my own personal power ratings. After notching a rare win on Thursday, they’ve subsequently dropped two in a row to the Giants and Sunday’s series finale certainly looks to favor the road team with Anthony DeSclafani starting. The Giants are 16-3 L19 games vs. Arizona, including 8-1 this season. While things are dire out in the desert, San Francisco has been the biggest surprise in all of MLB this season. They are #1 in net units (+22.7 units) and continue to stay in front of the more talented Dodgers, which is quite the achievement. There’s really nothing phony about the Giants’ 52-30 record either as they are +103 in run differential, third best in all of baseball (Astros, Dodgers). Before winning each of the L2 days, they’d been on a season-worst four-game losing skid. But that’s in the past now. With the Dodgers (and Padres) not far behind, there is no reason for the Giants to “let up” anytime soon. DeSclafani has an 11-5 TSR this season. The team did lose his last start as he allowed three solo home runs in a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers. But the Giants aren’t playing the Dodgers today. DeSclafani had previously allowed just 4 HR’s in seven outings. He helped beat Arizona 13-7 on June 16th by allowing just two runs (one unearned) in 5 IP. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of the L5 starts. DeSclafani will be opposed today by Caleb Smith, who is still winless after seven starts. That’s not necessarily “his fault,” but that’s what happens when you pitch for a bad team and Arizona is most definitely a “bad team.” 10* San Francisco | |||||||
07-04-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies look to win the series today as they can make it three of four against the Cardinals. The only loss in this series was 9-3 on Friday, a highly misleading final, as the game went to extra innings after St. Louis tied it in the ninth. There was a grand slam in the 10th. Save for that, the Rockies have been playing well of late. I was on them when they won the opener of this series, 5-2, on Thursday. They won 3-2 last night thanks to a three-run blast by Trevor Story that broke a scoreless tie. It’s imperative that Colorado keeps winning these types of games, given the division they are in and the road record. Coors Field has always been a bit of a “sanctuary” for the Rockies. That’s really been the case in 2021. The team is a woeful 6-31 on the road this season and that’s a big reason why they aren’t going to be a playoff contender. Playing in the NL West also doesn’t help matters. You’ve got the three best teams in the National League (Dodgers, Giants, Padres) all in this division and the Rockies are just 8-17 against those teams. But they are basically .500 against everyone else and at home they’ve gone a strong 30-17. They are 6-1 as a favorite of -125 to -175 on the money (28-12 L3 seasons). Another reason to like Colorado here is the starting pitching matchup. German Marquez comes in with a 0.39 ERA and 0.348 WHIP his L3 starts. The Rockies have won all three games. Marquez has a 6-1 TSR at home with a 3.06 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. The Rockies have been getting really solid pitching of late (surprisingly!) as they’ve allowed two runs or less in five of the six games on the current home stand. It would have been six straight if not for the late inning debacle Friday. Carlos Martinez has not been giving St. Louis much in the way of quality starts of late. He has a 9.00 ERA and 2.143 WHIP his L3 starts. The Cards are 2-11 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. 10* Colorado | |||||||
07-03-21 | Red Sox v. A's -132 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* Oakland (7:15 ET): Boston has won eight in a row, but three of the last five (last night included) have been by one run and I think it’s time the win streak ended. It very nearly did last night and some say it should have. Oakland had runners at the corners with nobody out in the bottom half of the 10th and looked poised to at least tie. But a runner was thrown out at home after a fly out and that effectively ended the game. With the pitching matchup in their favor tonight, look for the A’s to turn the tide. It speaks volumes that they are favored on the money line here. Starter Cole Irvin is probably the main reason that the home team is favored in this one. He’s coming off an unbeaten June with three wins in five starts. The team was 5-0 in those five starts. He just threw eight shutout innings at San Francisco on Sunday, arguably his best outing of the season. I know that Boston has been hitting the ball well of late, but they had just six hits Friday and the majority of their lineup is not familiar with Irvin, a lefty. Garrett Richards beat the A’s back on May 13th when he threw six shutout innings. He then won his next start at Toronto. Ever since, he’s winless with a 6.75 ERA and 2.01 WHIP (seven starts). He has a 10.32 ERA his L3 starts. The fact that the Red Sox have managed to win four of his last five starts seems rather fortunate as Richards has allowed 23 runs in 21 ⅔ innings. Early in the season, it felt like Oakland was a team that was overachieving, but now it’s Boston that fits that bill. Time to fade. 10* Oakland | |||||||
07-02-21 | Rangers -100 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
10* Texas (10:05 ET): Seattle must be stopped! What do I mean by this? Well, they are a team currently four games over .500 despite a YTD run differential of -42. Certainly, that is a sign of overachieving. In fact, no team’s actual win total (43 in the case of Seattle) exceeds its expected win total (which is based on run differential) more so than the Mariners. For the record, the M’s expected win total is only 36. Throw in the fact that this team is off B2B wins as an underdog of +175 or higher (both over Toronto) and it’s time for a downturn in the Pacific Northwest. Even crazier is that oddsmakers have priced the M’s as just a 16-win team! (That’s how many games they have been favored in this season). Not only do we have an overachieving side in this AL West matchup, but the other team is going for revenge. Texas dropped all four games here in Seattle on Memorial Day Weekend. Two of those games were decided by one run. The Mariners have 18 one-run wins this season, most in MLB. They are also 8-1 in games decided in extra innings. That’s how they’ve been able to get above .500 despite such a poor YTD run differential. I’m not going to tell you Texas is a great ballclub, but they did just take two of three in Oakland. They’ve also got their best starter, Kyle Gibson, on the mound Friday. Gibson has a 2.00 ERA and 1.011 WHIP in 15 starts. The team is 10-5 in those 15 starts. His last start saw Gibson toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with a season-high 10 K’s. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in 14 consecutive starts! So look for him to outduel Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.38 ERA at home this year. The Mariners, who are not good offensively, hit just .207 at home. They are last in the AL in both batting average and OBP. Look for the Rangers to avenge what happened Memorial Day Weekend. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-01-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies +114 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 114 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Colorado (8:40 ET): Both teams swept their last series. It was also a sweep the first time the Cardinals and Rockies faced off here in 2021. The Cardinals took all three games at Busch Stadium back in May, but as everyone knows the Rockies are a much better team at Coors Field. They’ve got the worst road record in all of MLB (6-31!) but are a very reputable 28-16 at home. So I like their chances at exacting some revenge in tonight’s series opener as St. Louis probably should not even be favored here. The Cardinals’ last nine games have been against the Tigers, Pirates and D’backs, three of the worst teams in baseball. Despite that, they went just 4-5 overall. Three of the four wins came in the last series, against a horrendous Arizona team that has now dropped 28 of its last 29 road games. If this game was taking place in St. Louis, it might be a different story, but starter Adam Wainwright has a 6.31 ERA on the road this season and we all know what the Rockies can do at the plate here in the thin air of Denver (5.8 rpg). St. Louis is just a game under .500, but they’ve actually been outscored this year by 42 runs. So their record probably should be a lot worse. Colorado’s YTD run differential is -53, not far off from St. Louis, but they are 13 games below .500. I love the revenge angle and the home field advantage in this one, plus starter Antonio Senzatela has a solid 2.81 ERA his last eight starts at Coors. The Rockies really dominated Pittsburgh in the last series, shutting them out twice and outscoring them 16-2 in the three games. That’s a Pirates team that just took three of four from the Cardinals (in St. Louis). 10* Colorado | |||||||
06-30-21 | Padres -170 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
7* San Diego (7:10 ET): The Padres are now 5-0 against the Reds this season following last night’s 5-4 victory. That was also San Diego’s 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Cincinnati’s lineup had no answers for the Padres’ bullpen which pitched four shutout innings last night. With Joe Musgrove starting on Wednesday, SD skipper Jayce Tingler likely won’t have to lean so hard on his relievers tonight. Musgrove, who tossed a no-hitter earlier this year, has a 2.47 ERA and 0.887 WHIP. Given his individual numbers, you’d expect Musgrove to have a better won-loss record than 4-6. But his TSR is 8-6 and that’s after B2B dominating efforts. The first came against the Reds, whom Musgrove held scoreless for seven innings on June 17th. Then he helped the Padres beat the Dodgers by allowing only one run on two hits last week. Sadly for Musgrove, he did not factor into either decision. He actually hasn’t won since May 19th, which seems grossly unfair. Needless to say, he’s overdue for a win here. The Padres, despite being in third place in their own division, would be leading both the NL East and NL Central. They are without question the NL’s third best team. I’ve got them sixth overall in my own power ratings. Cincinnati is a pedestrian ballclub with a .500 record. Their bullpen is poor and they’ve allowed the third most runs in the National League. That’s a problem when facing the team that’s #2 in all of MLB in runs allowed per game. Reds’ starter Vladimir Gutierrez was roughed up by SD for five runs in his worst start of the year back on 6/19. 7* San Diego | |||||||
06-30-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -206 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -206 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:07 ET): The price is high on Toronto, but I am very confident that it is appropriate for this series against Seattle. I took the Blue Jays yesterday and they won 9-3. The Mariners scored all of their runs in one inning, on a France three-run HR. The Jays immediately answered with a pair of 3-run HRs of their own in the next two innings. As I talked about in yday’s analysis, these teams might have similar records, but the pricing shows who the oddsmakers believe is far better. Their belief is confirmed by Toronto having a +71 YTD run differential while Seattle has as a -49 YTD run differential. The Mariners are 41-39, but have an “expected” win total of 34 based on that aforementioned run differential. The gap between their actual and expected wins is the largest in all of MLB, at least from an overachieving standpoint. Meanwhile, Toronto also now has 41 wins, but they have an “expected” win total of 45 based on their run differential. Their gap is among the highest for underachievers. The Jays’ run differential is actually 4th best in the entire American League while Seattle’s is 5th worst. So what I’m saying is you should expect the home team to continue rolling in this series. They’ve won eight of nine and seven of those wins have been by three runs or greater. Steven Matz gets the starting nod on Wednesday, returning from the COVID-19 list. While Matz isn’t having his best season, he did pitch well the last time we saw him (6/12) in a 7-2 win over Boston. Justus Sheffield goes for Seattle and he is 0-3 his L3 starts with an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. All three losses were to sub-.500 teams. Sheffield has allowed eight home runs in his last four starts. 6* Toronto | |||||||
06-29-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -192 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
6* Toronto (7:07 ET): Should be an easy win today for the Blue Jays. When examining which teams are over and underperforming their expected win total (which is based on YTD run differential), these two teams come up. Seattle is a clear overachiever. They are somehow three games over .500 despite being outscored by 43 runs this season. The key for them has been a 7-1 record in extra innings and a MLB-high 18 one-run wins. The Mariners have an expected win total of 35 based on their run differential. So they are due for a downturn after winning 10 of the last 13 games. Meanwhile, Toronto should be doing better than they are. They have a YTD run differential of +65, which is better than first place Boston, but they trail the Red Sox by 6.5 games in the AL East. Based on that run differential, the Blue Jays should have 45 wins, not 40. So expect them to start surging. They come into this series having won seven of eight, thanks to facing Baltimore a bunch of times. Chris Flexen has admittedly looked sharp of late for Seattle. But Tuesday’s starter has not been good on the road this year with a 7.27 ERA and 1.629 WHIP. Despite those numbers, his team start record on the road is 4-1. So he’s been lucky. That luck runs out today, however. Pitching for Toronto will be Robbie Ray, who has better overall numbers than Flexen. Ray has allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive starts and last time out he held Miami to one run in six innings. 6* Toronto | |||||||
06-28-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): After being swept in San Diego and then no-hit by the Cubs, the Dodgers have started rolling again. They have won three in a row and now have a huge showdown with the first place Giants at Chavez Ravine. The home team is just 1-6 in head to head meetings this season, but that trend should stop Monday as the Dodgers are 26-13 at home this year and don’t want to miss on any opportunities to cut into the Giants’ three-game lead in the division. I’ve got these teams rated 2 and 3 in my own power rankings. The Dodgers are one spot ahead (Houston is #1). Generally speaking, you don’t need an “excuse” to bet the Dodgers, but having Trevor Bauer on the hill only sweetens the pot. Now Bauer does have a 7-9 TSR this season, but that’s highly misleading and this is a great price to take him at home. He has a 4-1 TSR in LA, a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. In his only previous start vs. San Francisco this year, he allowed just one run and two hits as the Dodgers won 2-1. The Giants being ahead of the Dodgers in the division is definitely a surprise. Anthony DeSclafani is even more surprising. He has a 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. But he had one start against the Dodgers this year was a disaster. He allowed 10 runs in 2 ⅔ innings. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight, but the Dodgers should get to him and take this series opener. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
06-28-21 | Angels v. Yankees -153 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -153 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Two clubs that weren’t very good at avenging prior sweeps over the weekend hook it up in the Bronx this evening. The Angels did snap a five-game win streak Sunday by finally beating the Rays, 6-4. They had previously been 0-6 against the Rays this season. Also over the weekend, the Yankees were swept by the Red Sox for the second time this month. That put an end to a nice 7-2 run that the team was on. I expect them to take their frustrations out on the Halos Monday. The Yankees are now in fourth place in the AL East and the three teams ahead of them all have vastly superior run differentials. Needless to say, this was not expected. They hit well against Red Sox pitching, but not when it mattered most (3 for 18 w/ RISP) and they also struck out 30 times. Expect more favorable results at the plate tonight when they go up against Dylan Bundy, who is 1-7 this season with a 6.68 ERA. Bundy has not pitched well vs. NY in the past, going 2-6 with a 6.52 ERA in 13 appearances. Michael King gets the starting nod for the home team and while he’s still winless in five starts (2-3 TSR), I expect him to pitch well here. The Angels had been held to just 12 runs in five games before winning Sunday. The Yankees are 90-40 L130 games as a home favorite and 6-1 if they allowed 5+ runs in the previous game. They’ve won the last two times King has started and visiting teams are batting just .211 this season at Yankee Stadium. 8* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox -186 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -186 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
7* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I think that the White Sox are poised to do quite well for themselves in this series. Yes, they’ve been in a bit of a slump, losing five out of their last six. But four of those losses came to the Astros, who have absolutely been on fire of late. The White Sox snapped their losing streak with a 4-3 win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday and now face a Seattle club that has greatly overachieved in 2021. The Mariners are two games over .500, but certainly should NOT be considered a legit Wild Card contender. Not just because Houston & Oakland are in their division, but also because of a -48 YTD run differential. Chicago also has its #1 starter on the mound tonight in Carlos Rodon. The southpaw comes in with a 1.83 ERA and 0.842 WHIP after 12 starts and has been one of the top pitchers this year in the entire American League. On top of that, he’s 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in four prior starts against Seattle. Yusei Kikuchi, another left-hander, is having a good month for Seattle. But he’s not in the same class as Rodon, plus the White Sox tend to “eat up” lefties, winning 27 of the last 39 games against them. Also notable with the White Sox recent losing skid was that none of those games were at home. They are 27-12 this season at Guaranteed Rate Field. As for Seattle, they are 13-33 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 the L3 seasons (about what you’d expect) including 3-9 in 2021. I look at Seattle’s run differential and just HAVE to believe they are headed for a nosedive. No team has exceeded its expected win total by a greater margin. The White Sox are a top 5 team in baseball and should win easily. 7* Chi White Sox | |||||||
06-25-21 | Nationals v. Marlins -130 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:10 ET): Let’s try this again. The Marlins’ struggles at the plate continued last night as they lost to Joe Ross and Washington 7-3. It was the seventh time in nine games that the Fish were held to three runs or less and in the case of last night, all three runs were scored in the bottom of the eighth (when they were already behind 7-0). It was also the fourth loss to the Nationals this season without a win. I still believe Miami is better and with a more favorable starting pitching matchup set for Friday, I’m going back to the home team again. Washington, specifically Kyle Schwarber, has had no problems hitting the ball of late. Schwarber homered twice last night, giving him 12 in his last 13 games. It was a three-run HR in the second inning that really dampened the mood in Miami. But Schwarber is likely to start cooling off. Miami’s bats are also due to start heating up. Interestingly enough, the two times in the last nine games that the Marlins did NOT score three runs or less, they scored 10 and 11. So they are certainly capable of a big night offensively. I think it comes here. Jon Lester starts for the Nats Friday. He’s been on a bit of a nice run, but hasn’t gone very deep into games. I see him being outdueled here by Pablo Lopez, who has been outstanding at home for Miami. Lopez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in eight home starts and his WHIP is 0.778 the L3 starts overall. He is certainly deserving of a better TSR than 7-8, just like Miami is due a better overall record than 31-43 (they have a positive run differential). Throw in the way the line moved this morning and all signs point to the Marlins getting on track tonight. 8* Miami | |||||||
06-25-21 | Yankees -123 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Big time revenge spot for the Yankees, who got swept by the rival Red Sox (in Yankees Stadium) earlier this month. This time, they are catching Boston off a very deflating loss. The Red Sox had a combined no-hit bid (multiple pitchers) going into the 8th inning last night in Tampa Bay, but ended up losing that game 1-0. Meanwhile, the Yankees won comfortably in the afternoon, beating the Royals 8-1. Revenge would seem to be in the air this weekend at Fenway Park and I think the Yanks gain a measure of it, starting with tonight’s series opener. Lost in the fact that Red Sox pitching hadn’t given up any hits going into the 8th last night was that they hadn’t scored any runs. That ended up being significant! They certainly can’t count on getting solid pitching tonight with Martin Perez on the mound. Perez has a 12.97 ERA and 2.521 WHIP in his last three starts. Boston has scored just two runs in its last two games. They’ve been held to three runs or less in four of the last six games. Certainly the Red Sox have been an early season surprise, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up finishing 4th in the AL East. The Yankees have won seven of nine and will hand the baseball to Domingo German tonight. Like Perez, German has struggled recently. But he has better overall numbers than Perez. In fact, from 4/22 through 6/6, German allowed 3 ER or less in nine consecutive starts. One of those was against Boston, whom he held to one run and three hits over 5 ⅔ innings. The Yankees may have gotten swept earlier this year, but they’ve had the Red Sox number through the years, taking 23 of the last 29 head to head matchups. Boston is just 8-22 as a home underdog. 10* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-24-21 | Astros -198 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
6* Houston (7:10 ET): This is the first of two “revenge” plays that I’ve got in this three-game report. Back in mid-April, one of the more shocking results of this entire MLB season took place as the Tigers swept the Astros in Houston. Given where the two teams are at now, that result makes little sense. Houston comes into tonight as the hottest team in all of baseball. They’ve won 10 in a row and have now outscored their opponents by 135 runs (#1 in MLB) this season. Detroit has won three in a row, but they are 10 games below .500 and have a -62 YTD run differential. The road team should win big today. Houston has outscored opponents 81-21 during their 10-game win streak. Four times they’ve scored 10 or more runs. One of those was last night, a 13-0 win in Baltimore. This is the highest scoring team in all of baseball and not only are they averaging 8.1 runs over the L10 games, but also 6.0 rpg on the road for the season. Certainly, the Astros have to be excited to face Jose Urena tonight. Urena has a 13.91 ERA and 2.364 WHIP his last three starts. The last two times Urena has started, the Tigers have lost 15-2 and 11-3. Urena was responsible for 15 of those 26 runs being scored despite pitching only six innings. As hot as Houston is at the plate right now, their pitching has been equally impressive. They’ve allowed just 2.1 rpg during the win streak and only one time have they allowed more than three runs. It will be Luis Garcia on the bump tonight and he has a 2.80 ERA. In his last start, Garcia faced the White Sox (a very good team) and held them to just one run in seven innings. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Over the L7 starts, you’re looking at a 2.01 ERA and 1.041 WHIP and Garcia has 1 ER or less five times. 6* Houston | |||||||
06-24-21 | Nationals v. Marlins +105 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:10 ET): This is the other “revenge” spot in the three-pack. Miami was swept by Washington back in early May. It has been a very frustrating season for the Marlins when you consider they are in last place in the NL East despite having the division’s second best run differential. They’ve allowed just 13 runs in the L7 games, yet are somehow 2-5! They just dropped a couple home games vs. Toronto, by scores of 3-1 and 2-1, but armed with revenge against a division foe they should break through tonight. Washington has the best record in the National League over the L10 games at 9-1. They just won a couple games at Philadelphia, including 13-12 yesterday. Again, that’s almost the same number of runs that Miami pitching has allowed over the L7 games! Both wins in Philly were by one run and the Nationals now have four of those in the last nine games. So they’ve been far from dominant. This is a team that’s been outscored this season and is just 14-18 on the road. Starter Joe Ross has a 2-6 TSR on the road. Cody Poteet will look to keep the string of strong Miami pitching performances going on Thursday. He’s pitched only one time at home so far and he didn’t allow any runs. It was seven shutout innings of three hit ball vs. the Mets on 5/23. What the Nats did at the plate yday is not indicative of what you should expect from them. In their previous eight games, they were held to three runs or less five times. The only question mark here is the Marlins offense, but it shouldn’t take much to win this game. 10* Miami | |||||||
06-23-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -139 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): So the Rays lost to the Red Sox again yesterday. They are now 0-4 against their division rival in 2021 and trail them by 1.5 games in the standings. Yes, I had the Rays last night and it was their seventh straight loss overall. But I still believe they are the better team here. The game went into extra innings last night, so 9-5 is definitely a misleading final score. Boston did all of its scoring in two innings. So did Tampa Bay for that matter. But producing a five-run inning and four-run inning in the same game against this Rays pitching staff is hard to do and won’t happen again. I’m on TB for the second straight night. A big difference in last night’s game is that Boston was 6 for 10 with runners in scoring position while Tampa Bay was 3 for 17. That should correct itself tonight. Also, the news wasn’t all bad for the Rays on Tuesday as Walder Franco lived up to the hype in his big league debut, hitting a HR and a double. Speaking of misleading, the Red Sox have the division lead despite a +38 YTD run differential compared to the Rays’ +69. This is the worst stretch of the year for TB and they are due to turn things around. Rich Hill will look to play stopper tonight for the home team. The southpaw has a 0.983 WHIP in seven home starts this year. Hill is off B2B shaky outings (allowed 4 runs both times), but before that he’d allowed no more than 2 ER in eight consecutive starts. Boston 1-5 L6 vs. lefties. Going into yesterday, opponents were batting just .207 here at Tropicana Field. Garrett Richards somehow has a 3-0 TSR in his L3 starts for Boston despite a 6.91 ERA and 2.163 WHIP. He’s definitely due to lose just as TB is due to beat Boston. They Rays are 51-19 L70 as ML home favorites. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-22-21 | Rockies v. Mariners -164 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): At first, I was a little bit leery of taking the Mariners. After all, this is a ballclub that’s clearly overachieved in 2021. Despite a -46 run differential, they are two games above .500. But a quick look at Colorado’s road record is more than enough to alleviate any apprehension I have about the home team here. There are some dreadful road records in baseball this season, but none are worse than Colorado’s absolutely pathetic 5-27 mark. Given how the money line has moved this morning, I’m taking the M’s. Seattle has won four straight, so they’re hot. I made the mistake of fading them both Saturday and Sunday against Tampa Bay. Both games did go to extra innings, which I guess is fine for the Mariners as they are 7-1 in games this year that go past the ninth. They also have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories. That stuff is what made me leery here. But the win streak coupled with having Chris Flexen on the mound is enough to convince me that they can easily defeat MLB’s worst road team. Flexen has a 9-3 TSR and has been good at home where his ERA and WHIP are 2.16 and 1.032. Last Tuesday, he threw eight scoreless innings against Minnesota, a game Seattle won 10-0. It was the second time in his last three starts at home that Flexen went 7+ innings and did not give up a run. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland has given up lots of runs as he has a 9.58 ERA in five starts. That ERA is even worse over the L3 starts (12.79) and he has a 2.447 WHIP to boot. Over the last three seasons, Freeland is 5-16 with a 6.16 ERA in 40 starts. 8* Seattle | |||||||
06-22-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -105 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Rays, who were swept up in Boston very early in the season. Despite that - and a current six-game losing streak - I believe TB to be the better of these two AL East clubs. As many of you already know, I lean heavily on run differential and in this area the Rays are significantly more dominant than the Red Sox. They have outscored opponents by 77 runs this season, fifth best in all of MLB, while Boston is only +34. Not only is that not the best run diff in the AL East, it’s actually third, also trailing Toronto. I think things set up well for a Tampa turnaround on Tuesday. It was certainly quite shocking to see the Rays get swept in a four-game series out in Seattle over the weekend. I consider them to be much better than the Mariners and even took them twice (Saturday & Sunday). Both times I took TB they ended up losing in extra innings. That was in addition to dropping the series opener by one run when Seattle scored two in the bottom of the ninth. The good news though is that Boston didn’t do much better over the weekend, dropping two of three in Kansas City. So it’s only a one-half game deficit that the Rays face coming into this big series. The big news on Tuesday is that Wander Franco, MLB.com’s #1 rated prospect, is set to make his big league debut for the Rays. Look for Franco to have an immediate impact on a lineup that has been struggling of late. He hit .315 this year down in Durham and .332 across his entire career in the minors. Eduardo Rodriguez is the starter for Boston and while the Red Sox are 3-0 his L3 starts, Rodriguez has posted an 8.36 ERA and 1.571 WHIP. He actually hasn’t won a decision since May 7th and has allowed 4+ runs in 6 of his L7 starts. His 5.44 career ERA vs. Tampa is his third highest vs. any AL opponent. For the Rays, expect the duo of Andrew Kittredge (likely opener) and Ryan Yarbrough to get the job done. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-21-21 | Dodgers +114 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Move over Red Sox-Yankees. This is now the preeminent rivalry in all of MLB. The Dodgers, though in second place in the division, are still the #1 team in the entire National League in my power ratings. The Padres aren’t too far behind, but they are behind. Four of the previous five head to head meetings have been won by San Diego, but three of those wins came by one run. I see this as a TREMENDOUS price on LA as it’s the first time all season that they are underdogs on the money line. Go and take them. The Dodgers got to play Arizona this weekend and to the surprise of no one, that ended up being a three-game sweep. They only won by one run yesterday, but it marked the second straight game they scored nine runs. The team has a +103 run differential on the year, which is 2nd best in MLB (Houston). I like that Julio Urias is starting Monday and he has a 0.767 WHIP on the road where he’s gone 6-1 this season. The team is 6-1 in his L7 starts overall as well. Yu Darvish goes here for San Diego. While his 11-3 TSR is among the best in baseball, profitability took a big hit with losses to the Cubs and Rockies in his last two starts. Both times he was -235 or higher on the ML. Urias’ numbers are very comparable to those of Darvish. Before they swept Cincinnati over the weekend, the Padres had dropped seven of eight games. I think the Dodgers are better and can’t pass them up at this price! 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
06-21-21 | Indians v. Cubs -133 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Cleveland avoided what would have been a very embarrassing sweep in Pittsburgh by winning 2-1 yesterday. In the last two series, the Tribe has faced the Pirates and the Orioles, arguably the two worst teams in the sport. They swept Baltimore, but the trek through the National League continues here with a visit to Wrigley Field. Obviously, any opponent would represent a “step up” in class after the last two series. But this one happens to be the best team in the NL Central and I see the Cubs gaining a measure of revenge for a pair of losses they suffered at Progressive Field last month. The Indians are 39-30 on the year, so they have a slightly better win percentage than the Cubs do. But the Tribe have overachieved to get there as they have a run differential of just +3. I don’t see this team, which has very little offensive firepower, even getting a Wild Card spot. The loss of the DH does them no favors as they’ve scored only five runs the previous two games. Due to injuries, the Indians’ starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. Aaron Civale is now the “de facto ace” with Shane Bieber on the DL. While Civale has the nice team start record (11-3), his individual numbers aren’t all that great. His strikeout rate (6.9 per nine innings) is “nothing to write home about” and the ERA and WHIP are fairly comparable to what Cubs starter Adbert Alzolay has produced despite a 5-6 TSR. Civale has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four outings. Alzolay hasn’t started in two weeks, so he’s obviously well rested. After being beaten up on Friday & Saturday, the Cubs came back and avoided the sweep themselves Sunday with a 2-0 win over Miami. They are now 25-12 at home this season. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
06-20-21 | Rays -152 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -152 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): I said yesterday that I couldn’t see the Rays getting swept by the Mariners this weekend. Well, given that they lost Saturday’s game (6-5, in extra innings), I’m going to play the road team again as they look to avoid the sweep. The results of this series are certainly odd, given TB is one of the better teams in baseball (+77 run differential). But a season-high five-game losing skid has them now a half-game back of Boston in the AL East. It’s time for that streak to end. Seattle now has a winning record (37-36), but that’s quite misleading when you consider their YTD run differential is -50. The gap between their number of actual wins vs. expected wins (based on run differential) is the largest in all of MLB. What’s made them such a clear overachiever is their MLB-leading 16 one-run wins. They are also now 6-1 in extra inning games after Saturday. They were fortunate yesterday to get a second inning grand slam from J.P. Crawford. For the Rays, it was their third one-run loss in the last four games. It will be a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday. Shane McClanahan goes for the Rays. He’s been a bit unfortunate this year in that 70 percent of the runs he’s allowed have come with two outs. The team was 5-1 in his first six starts before going 0-3 the L3. I think, like his team, McClanahan gets back on track today. Seattle has the lowest team batting average at home in all of MLB. Marco Gonzales is 0-2 for the Mariners since coming off the DL. He faces a Rays lineup averaging 5.7 rpg on the road. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-19-21 | Rays -134 v. Mariners | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (10:10 ET): The Rays have now dropped two straight in Seattle and four straight overall. That’s odd, considering how they lead the AL East and are a top five team in my own personal power ratings. I can’t see them getting swept by a subpar Mariners team that has a -51 YTD run differential, yet is somehow staying “afloat” with a .500 record. Tampa Bay is typically one of the better road teams in all of baseball and I’m counting on them getting the job done today against what I feel is a clearly inferior foe. Just to “back up” a bit, Thursday’s series opener saw Seattle rally for two run in the bottom of the ninth to take the game 6-5. That rally carried right over into yday where the M’s batted around in a four-run 1st inning. That hot start essentially decided the game, which ended up being a 5-1 final. The Rays offense really couldn’t get anything going against Yusei Kikuchi, but I see them being a lot more productive at the plate tonight vs. Logan Gilbert, who has a 6.32 ERA at home this season for the Mariners. Yes, Gilbert has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts. But here he’s facing a team that going into yday was averaging a MLB-high 5.8 rpg on the road. Seattle’s hitters were very successful against the shift yesterday, which felt a bit lucky. Nine of the M’s 13 hits went to the opposite side of the field. Said Rays skipper Kevin Cash, “We probably got beat around by the shift about as much as I can recall in a long time.” I do not think that is going to happen again. First off, the Mariners’ team batting average at home this year is a woeful .203. Secondly, the Rays starter for Saturday (Josh Fleming) has a 0.953 WHIP in his five previous starts this season. Make no mistake about it, the Rays are the better team here. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-17-21 | Reds v. Padres -171 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* San Diego (8:40 ET): These two teams have been trending in different directions of late and surprisingly it’s Cincinnati that’s doing better. The Reds have won six in a row after sweeping both Colorado and Milwaukee. San Diego was just swept out in Colorado and is falling a bit off the pace in the rugged NL West. So this is a big weekend for the heavily hyped Padres and I see them coming through on Friday, led by starter Joe Musgrove. They are calling today “Re-Opening Day 2021” as it will be the first home game with full capacity this season. Back on May 29th, the Padres owned baseball’s best WL record. June has not been kind to them as they’ve gone 4-11 including the three straight losses out in Denver. But a return to Petco Park should help turn things around. Visiting teams average only 3.1 runs per game here while batting .199. Only two teams allow a fewer number of rpg than San Diego. Musgrove has a 2.82 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 12 starts, so he definitely deserves better than a 6-6 TSR. He has the franchise’s first ever no-hitter to his credit already in 2021. In his L6 starts, his ERA is 1.91 and his WHIP is 0.818. Wade Miley goes tonight for Cincy and he too has thrown a no-no this season. His numbers are fairly comparable to Musgrove’s, but quite as good. Overall, the Reds’ pitching staff can’t compare to San Diego’s. They are one of eight teams allowing 5.0 or more runs per game. It’s a nice run that they are on, but the last two wins were both 2-1. The Padres are 11-5 vs. LH starters, so I like them against the southpaw Miley. 10* San Diego | |||||||
06-17-21 | Cardinals v. Braves -181 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): St. Louis is coming off a three-game sweep of Miami. They are 6-0 against the Marlins this season, but below .500 against everyone else and a -27 YTD run differential doesn’t speak well to their future prospects of maintaining a winning record. Note the Cards scored just seven runs in that series with the Marlins and only nine the last five games overall. They won the L2 games in the final at-bat. I think this team is a lot worse than the overall record shows. Furthermore, Thursday’s starter John Gant has been REALLY shaky of late with a 9.25 ERA and 1.971 WHIP. Gant has had a high WHIP all season (currently 1.651) so his TSR has always been a bit of a mirage. He lasted only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out and gave up five runs. Don’t be fooled by the fact he allowed just one hit. He walked five batters. The start before that saw Gant allow seven runs in four innings. Atlanta is averaging a solid 5.4 runs per game at home, so they should do some damage at the plate tonight. Coming off B2B 10-8 losses to Boston, the Braves hand the baseball to Charlie Morton here. Facing St. Louis rather than the Red Sox is a break for Morton. I say that knowing full well that Morton has a poor career record vs the Cardinals. But there is the fact Atlanta scored 16 runs in B2B losses while St. Louis has scored just seven runs total in three straight wins. The Cardinals are 2-9 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. I like the Braves a lot in this spot. 7* Atlanta | |||||||
06-16-21 | Marlins -112 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:15 ET): The Marlins have yet to defeat the Cardinals in 2021. Last night’s 2-1 loss leaves them 0-5 in the head to head series. Both games in the current three-game series have seen the Fish blow an early lead and lose in low-scoring fashion. Today will mark the last opportunity to defeat St. Louis this season. As rough as things have been for Miami of late, I see them avoiding the sweep here. They’ve got the edge in today’s starting pitching matchup and that’s why they are favored. Three hits will typically NOT get the job done. That’s how many Miami had Tuesday night. Yet they were still tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the ninth, which is when Paul Goldschmidt hit a walk-off HR for the Cards. I do see the Marlins lineup “waking up” today, due to facing Johan Oviedo, who has struggled in his six starts this season. He has a 6.85 ERA and 1.648 WHIP. Most importantly, he has a 1-5 TSR. Oviedo has yet to pitch more than five innings in any 2021 start and is still winless in his big league career. St. Louis entered this series having dropped 11 of 13. Considering their -28 run differential, they should feel lucky to be a game over .500. Miami is nine games below .500, but has a run differential of +3. I know the Marlins have really struggled on the road as of late, but today’s starter Sandy Alacantara is someone they can lean on. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his L10 starts and gone 6+ innings each of his last five trips to the mound. Honestly, Miami is the better team and has the better starter going Wednesday. 10* Miami | |||||||
06-15-21 | Rangers v. Astros -173 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
9* Houston (8:10 ET): These teams have met seven times so far in 2021. The home team is 7-0. I expect that trend to continue Tuesday as the Astros look to avenge a three-game sweep that transpired up in Arlington last month. That sweep certainly surprised me as I consider Houston to be the class of the AL West. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again - just look at the respective run differentials for them and Oakland. It’s only a matter of time before the ‘Stros move into first place in their division. Texas is in last place in the AL West and the gap between them and fourth place is already pretty big. They’re staring at a seven-game difference, which is the third largest gap between fourth and fifth place in any division. Since sweeping the Astros last month, they’ve dropped 14 of 17 overall. Like most bad teams, the Rangers really struggle on the road where they are 10-25 for the year. Even worse is how they’ve performed after a day off; 0-8 this season and 8-32 since the start of 2019. Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.15 ERA, 1.005 WHIP) might give the Rangers some hope heading into this series opener, but Lance McCullers has been quite good for the Astros as well. McCullers has allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts, two of them vs. Texas. He hasn’t pitched since facing the Rangers on 5/21 as he’ll be coming off the 10-day DL (shoulder discomfort). I think he’ll do just fine here against a lineup that’s failed to score more than four runs in six of its last seven games. Houston is off a dominant 14-3 win in Minnesota on Sunday (I had ‘em) and should easily avenge that prior sweep tonight. 9* Houston | |||||||
06-14-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -161 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): After exchanging 12-1 decisions with Texas on Friday & Saturday, the Dodgers ended up taking the series with a 5-3 win yesterday. They’ve now won five of their last six games. They may not have the best record, but for my money the defending World Series Champs remain the class of the NL. They have a +91 run differential for the season and yday’s win should not have been as close as it ended up being. The Dodgers had a 5-0 lead entering the ninth inning, but a rare bullpen breakdown turned it into a much closer affair than it needed to be. Philadelphia comes in on a four-game win streak as they just took two from the Yankees, at home, over the weekend. The win streak has the Phillies a game above .500, but I don’t see this as a playoff caliber club by any means. An 11-19 road record is a big reason why I feel their chances of success tonight are rather dubious. This is their longest win streak since early May when they won five in a row. It’s a good time to “sell high” on the Phils right now as I simply believe they are outclassed in a matchup with the mighty Dodgers. Tony Gonsolin did not have a strong 2021 debut for LA. He got only five outs, though the team still ended up winning the game 2-1. He figures to get a decent amount of support here as the Dodgers average a solid 5.5 runs per game at home. Spencer Howard starts here for Philly. He’s made three starts so far, none of them going longer than four innings. So there’s a very strong likelihood that this one comes down to the bullpens. Despite what happened Sunday, the Dodgers are better in that area. Coming off a two-game sweep of the Yankees at home, this is a natural letdown spot for the Phillies and it doesn’t help that they’re facing the Dodgers. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
06-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Twins | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
8* Houston (2:10 ET): I had the Under in this matchup last night. That it came in was not a surprise, but the Twins being the 5-2 winners did catch me a bit “off-guard.” As I’ve said many times previous to this (including in yday’s analysis), I fully expect Houston to overtake Oakland in the American League West. Just look at the respective run differentials! Only three teams in all of MLB have better YTD run differentials than the Astros (White Sox, Dodgers, Rays). So I’m calling for them to bounce back Sunday. Handing the baseball to Framber Valdez seems like a good idea seeing as he’s posted a 1.47 ERA and 0.873 WHIP thus far. It’s still a relatively small sample size, but considering the two teams he’s faced (Padres, Red Sox), those numbers are impressive. In four career regular season appearances vs. the Twins, Valdez has a 1.86 ERA. He also beat them in the playoffs last year when he threw five shutout innings of relief. The Astos are 3-0 off a loss in June, scoring 25 runs in the three games. So Valdez can probably count on some decent run support here as well. Michael Pineda will oppose Valdez on Sunday. He has a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Astros. Minnesota has been especially bad off a win this season (just 9-15), so history REALLY supports the road team bouncing back today. The Twins have lost Pineda’s last two starts and he didn’t really give them much, going just 4 ⅓ and 3 innings. He had just three strikeouts in the two games. The Twins are 0-6 after allowing 2 runs or less. 8* Houston | |||||||
06-10-21 | Rockies v. Marlins -185 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
7* Miami (7:10 ET): The Rockies and Marlins came into the National League together back in 1993. You have to call Miami the more “successful” franchise as they’ve won a pair of World Series (1997, 2003), although Colorado has the slightly better all-time win percentage. Last season was actually just the third time in their history that Miami made the playoffs while Colorado has five all-time playoff appearances. But the Rockies have never won a division title and their last playoff series win came in 2007 (when they made it to their only WS). Recently, things haven’t gone well for either team. Miami has lost 10 of 12 overall and is now last in the NL East. This despite a YTD run differential of just -2. Colorado did win yesterday’s game 4-3, but the numbers just don’t add up for them to get another victory today. They have just FIVE road wins all season and are 0-9 as a road underdog of +175 to +250. They lost Tuesday’s series opener, 6-2, as an underdog in that very price range. Entering yesterday, the team batting average on the road was below .200. Making matters worse for the Rockies is that they’ll have to face Trevor Rogers tonight. Rogers has been “lights out” this season with a 1.97 ERA in 12 starts. He’s allowed three runs or less in every start! Chi Chi Gonzalez has a 6.20 ERA on the road for Colorado, so I have a hard time believing he can turn this into a pitcher’s duel. Considering the Rockies’ road record (5-23), it’s VERY difficult to see them winning two in a row here. I know Miami has been struggling, but this looks to be among the easiest matchups they’ve had all season. 7* Miami |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |