Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-21-19 | Astros v. Yankees -148 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Two of the American League's real "powerhouses" (pun intended!) are trending in very different directions of late as the Yankees are hot (won six straight) and the Astros are not (lost five straight). These recent disparate results can be directly tied to the respective health of the two ballclubs. Having gone 37-17 their L54 games, the Yankees are now as healthy as they've been all year as Aaron Judge returns to the lineup Friday. Houston's clubhouse currently resembles a M*A*S*H unit w/ George Springer, Aldemys Diaz and Carlos Correa all out. I think it makes a lot of sense to take the Yanks here. The respective health of the two clubs is enough justification to take the home team here, but the pitching matchup is the cherry on top. James Paxton will be seeking to win B2B decisions for the first time all season, but pay no mind to that nor the fact his ERA & WHIP from the L3 starts are higher than what you'd expect. Paxton has pitched very well at home this year (2.15 ERA, 0.954 WHIP) and allowed only two runs in six innings his last time out, at Chicago. That was a 10-3 win for NY and they've kept rolling ever since. During the six game win streak, they've outscored the opposition 49-17! Houston is having to rely on its pitching right now, but the starting rotation doesn't set up well at all for this series. Justin Verlander will go Sunday, but there's no Gerrit Cole. Tonight, Brad Peacock is on the mound and he'll have to contain a lineup now at full strength that has hit a HR in 23 consecutive games. The Yankees also just added Edwin Encarnacion. Peacock has a 5.51 ERA his L3 starts. He last started Sunday in a 12-0 loss to a Toronto team that is among the lowest scoring in all of baseball. The Yankees are 13-2 this season as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Houston is 0-2 as a road underdog in that same range and 3-9 the L3 seasons. 8* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-21-19 | Mets v. Cubs -172 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -172 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): The Cubs are back atop the NL Central, which is where they belong given that they are the division's best team. A six-run inning was all that they needed to beat the Mets last night and today's game should be just as easy. The Mets are in a real tailspin right now having dropped 7 of 10. The homefield advantage in this series would appear to be rather massive considering the Cubs' 26-12 record here at Wrigley while the Mets are just 15-26 on the road. Visitors are scoring just 3.5 runs per game this year at Wrigley. Take the Cubs here. It was certainly NOT a great start to the season for Cubs' starter Yu Darvish. But we've begun to see signs of him turning things around. His last start was arguably his best of 2019 as he went seven innings and allowed only one run on two hits. That was on the road, against the Dodgers, no less. Darvish finished w/ 10 strikeouts and the Cubs rallied for a 2-1 win. He's now allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. This Mets lineup doesn't pose much of a threat as they've been unable to top four runs in four of their last five ballgames. The Cubs have owned the Mets in recent seasons, going 11-3 head to head in the L14 matchups. Jason Vargas has been solid if unspectacular for the Mets this season. More will be asked of him now though w/ Noah Syndergaard out. Unfortunately, Vargas was unable to "answer the bell" his last time out as he lasted just four innings and had to leave due to cramping in his left calf. The Mets are just 50-74 in day games the L3 seasons and are a team pretty clearly on the decline. They haven't hit well in day games this year (3.9 rpg) and won't today. Cubs win, Cubs win! 7* Chi Cubs | |||||||
06-20-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -169 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -169 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
10* Arizona (3:40 ET): This series has not gone according to plan for the home team as Arizona has dropped both games so far. They've had some major problems w/ Colorado this year, going 2-7 in head to head meetings, which is the primary reason why they're now two games back of their division rival despite having the superior YTD run differential. Arizona has outscored its opponents this year by 49 runs while the Rockies are only +21. I'd like to grab the D'backs this afternoon, but I actually think both teams are going to struggle to score in this one. Take the Under. Colorado was able to score five runs in seven innings against Zack Greinke last night. It was the first time all season that Greinke lost at home and the Rockies' 11 hits were their most against him in 5+ seasons. But the news was not all good. Shortstop Trevor Story left the game after jamming his thumb on a slide. He's scheduled for an MRI today, so he won't be in the lineup. Story is one of only two players in all of MLB w/ at least 15 HR's and 10 steals. He also leads the league w/ 65 runs scored. His absence will be significant for a Rockies offense which obviously already sees a decrease in production outside of Coors Field (4.5 rpg vs. 6.9 rpg). Robbie Ray has pitched better than it seems, at least recently, for the D'backs. While his ERA in his L3 starts is 4.58, his WHIP is 0.966, so the first number is a little misleading. Last time out, he gave up five runs on only five hits, which is quite unlucky. The two starts before that saw Ray allow just five runs total in 13 2/3 innings (w/ 19 K's). Colorado's Jeff Hoffman allowed just one run in five innings his last time out, but generally has NOT pitched well this season as is evident by a 7.04 ERA and 1.467 WHIP. The Rockies have lost Hoffman's last four road starts. Go w/ the home team to avoid the sweep today. 10* Arizona | |||||||
06-19-19 | Angels -147 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (7:07 ET): Time to cut bait with the Blue Jays, who just can't seem to beat the Angels. Last night's 3-1 loss dropped Toronto to 0-5 in the season series and things don't look any more promising Wednesday w/ Aaron Sanchez on the hill. Sanchez is 0-7 (nine starts) since the beginning of May. The Jays simply aren't hitting the ball well right now (only three hits yday) either. In fact, they have the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.223), including a horrid .207 at home. Look for the Angels to make it three straight here. Toronto got blitzed in Monday's opener, falling behind 7-0 after the second inning. Yesterday was a little different in that the game was closer (and lower-scoring), but the result was the same - a loss (3-1). Sanchez has done plenty of losing lately as have the Blue Jays. The team has lost 30 of its last 41 games and Sanchez certainly hasn't helped. He is 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 10.20 ERA and 1.933 WHIP. As I said earlier, he hasn't won a decision since April. He has a 6.95 ERA during the losing streak and is also winless in five career appearances vs. the Angels (4.42 ERA). Toronto is 2-6 the L8 times they've dropped the first two games of a series. The Angels go w/ Andrew Heaney tonight. Seeing as last night's starter Tyler Skaggs went a season-high 7 1/3 innings against this weak-hitting Blue Jays lineup, I expect Heaney to pitch well here. He has a 0.969 WHIP in four starts, so that 4.57 ERA is actually a little misleading as is the fact he's still winless. His first three starts saw him punch out 28 batters in 16 2/3 innings and last time out he allowed only one run and two hits in 5 IP at Tampa Bay. The bottom line is that Toronto has lost two-thirds of their home games (!) and is one of the worst teams in baseball. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
06-18-19 | Mets -120 v. Braves | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:20 ET): The Braves are hot right now, but tonight they'll be running into reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, who has a 1.86 ERA in 18 career starts against them. For a second straight year, deGrom is experiencing the hardest of luck as his team start record (TSR) in 2019 is 4-10 despite good numbers. Over his last five starts, he has a 2.38 ERA, yet is winless over that stretch. He has not allowed more than 2 ER in any of the five starts and has allowed 2 ER or less in 7 of his last 8 trips to the mound, not to mention all but four times this season. Fresh off beating the Mets 12-3 yday, Atlanta sends out Julio Teheran, who has been "lights out" in his own right of late. His L3 starts, all Braves victories, have seen Teheran post a 0.53 ERA and 0.941 WHIP. During that time, he's allowed just two runs in 17 IP and one of them was unearned. But he also had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) last time out and I simply do not see Teheran being as dominant as deGrom is. I say this knowing full well it's been eight straight starts for Teheran where he's given up 1 or 0 ER (3-0, 0.81 ERA in that stretch). He also has 2.35 ERA in 25 previous starts vs. the Mets. While this may seem like it sets up as a good old fashioned pitcher's duel, the fact is deGrom is favored and deserves to be. Yes, the Braves have been red hot (MLB-best 13-3 in June) and lead the National League East. But I'm not sure I'm ready to buy them long-term. The offense is certainly set to slow down here facing deGrom and I think Teheran is set to slow down as well. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
06-18-19 | Tigers v. Pirates -145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): What's this? A play on the Pirates? If you're a regular follower, then you know the Bucs are a team I've heavily targeted as a FADE in recent weeks due to them having a YTD run differential that was indicative of a team that should have a much worse record. Sure enough, the ship has been sinking fast here as they've lost 19 of their last 27 games, including 8 of their last 10. But after taking 2 of 3 from Miami over the weekend, the Bucs couldn't have asked for a better opponent to start the week than the Tigers, who have dropped 23 of 30, including four straight. Like the Pirates, the Tigers have a very poor run differential. In fact, at -132, Detroit has the second worst run differential in the sport (Baltimore). Both of these teams probably should have fewer wins then, but run diff says the Tigers have played to the level of a team that should only have 20 wins. They've scored the fewest runs in all of MLB and now head to a National League park, which means the DH will be substituted for the pitcher coming up to bat. The Tigers are just 3-10 in interleague play this season and 15-37 vs. the NL the L3 seasons. Over the weekend, Detroit got swept at home by Cleveland including a shutout loss on Sunday. They've scored more than four runs just one time in the L10 games. Daniel Norris will get the start for them in this series opener. Norris has lost both IL starts this season and the team is just 3-12 the L15 times he's taken the mound dating back to last season. Rookie Mitch Keller goes for Pittsburgh. While it's been a rough start for Keller (who was called into starting duty due to injuries in the rotation), this is the weakest lineup in MLB he'll be facing here. The Pirates are 7-2 vs. American League teams this season and 32-17 the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
06-17-19 | Indians -126 v. Rangers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Turns out that the Tigers were just what the "doctor ordered" for the Indians. They swept them (in Detroit) and are now four games over .500 (37-33) heading into what shapes up as a pretty important early season series w/ Texas. The Rangers still hold the 2nd Wild Card in the American League, but I played against them yday and they lost 11-3 to Cincinnati. It's down to a one-half game lead over Cleveland for that last WC spot, but there's obviously still a lot of baseball to be played. The fact the Indians come in as a slight betting favorite for Monday's opener "tells a story" in my view and I'll back the Tribe here. The Rangers are the 2nd highest scoring team in baseball (Twins) but will have to contend w/ an Indians pitching staff that is top five in fewest runs allowed. It may not be saying much, but the Indians outscored the Tigers 25-6 in the three-game sweep. That included an 8-0 shutout Sunday behind Trevor Bauer. Mike Clevinger will look to follow suit here as he returns from the 60-day DL (back) here. Clevinger made only two starts before the injury, but had looked very good. In 12 scoreless innings of work, he'd allowed all of two hits and had 22 K's. Most importantly, Cleveland won both games. I think Clevinger can be a tremendous asset on an Indians' pitching staff that is already quite good. Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in the league so far. They lost 95 games last season. While a strong home team so far (24-12), it remains to be seen whether or not they can continue the current pace. Lance Lynn gets the start here. While he is unbeaten at home (4-0 in six starts), his ERA is 4.91 and his WHIP is 1.418. So it's not as if he's been dominant. Note Texas is 1-6 their L7 home games following a road trip of 7+ days. So, historically speaking, this has not been a good spot for them. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
06-16-19 | Rangers v. Reds -160 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): The Reds are a team I've previously stumped for as being better than their overall record. But that wouldn't be apparent by watching this series. They've dropped two straight to the Rangers, who are clearly exceeding expectations at this point. But back to Cincy. They have outscored the opposition by 38 runs this season, yet are somehow eight games below .500. That run differential is fourth best in the entire National League and more than three times first place Milwaukee! According to run differential, the Reds should be eight games ABOVE .500, not below. I believe they avoid the sweep Sunday behind Sonny Gray. Texas has been one of the biggest surprises in either league thus far. As of now, they'd actually be a Wild Card team in the American League! That's quite the improvement for a club that lost 95 games a year ago. But despite winning each of the last two days here at Great American Ballpark, the Rangers are still just 14-20 on the road. Let's not forget the loss of the DH by this being an interleague series. The Rangers really benefitted from three Reds' errors in yday's 4-3 victory. Not saying they wouldn't have won otherwise, but it's something that probably won't happen again today. Gray has had past success pitching against Texas. He's 8-3 in his career against them w/ two shutouts and a 2.72 ERA in 13 starts. I expect him to outpitch Ariel Jurado, even though the latter has made four straight quality starts and won his last three. Jurado has allowed a HR in each of those L4 starts. Gray hasn't given up any in his L4 and also hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start all year. He's made 13 starts to Jurado's five. Lost in the fact Texas has scored the second most runs in all of MLB is that Cincy has allowed the second fewest (#1 in NL). 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
06-16-19 | Red Sox -158 v. Orioles | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:05 ET): The Red Sox dug themselves an early hole by starting the season 6-13. But they've climbed out of it by going 32-21 since and can make it five straight wins today by beating the lowly Orioles. They're in position to sweep after a 7-2 win yday as they've now outscored the O's 20-4 the previous two days. A win today would also make it five straight over Baltimore dating back to a series from last month. Baltimore does have John Means starting here, which is why the ML is lower than you'd expect, but even he still has a 4-7 TSR as the O's remain the worst team in baseball. Now Means has pitched well at Camden Yards, something you really can't say for any other Baltimore pitcher. The Orioles are giving up a ghastly 7.0 runs per game at home this season, which is easily the most rpg allowed by any team at home this year. Overall, Baltimore has given up the second most runs in all of baseball this year (Seattle). As I said, Means has pitched well here and he's been the team's most effective starter. But even so, they've still lost 7 of his 11 starts. The fact that he's gone longer than six innings only once is a big deal w/ the Orioles' bullpen being as bad as it is. Baltimore is the only team in baseball not to have won 10 home games yet (9-27 at home) and eventually opposing hitters are going to figure out Means' changeup. Part of the reason Means hasn't gone deeper into games is that he has a tendency to run up his pitch count. Like I already said, the Red Sox have run up 20 runs in two games on Baltimore pitching. Meanwhile, the Orioles have scored just five runs total in their last three games vs. Boston. I know Brian Johnson isn't the most impressive arm the Red Sox could trot to the mound today. But he should pitch well enough for his team to finish the sweep. 8* Boston | |||||||
06-15-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -180 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -180 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers have proven to be too strong for the Cubs thus far, taking the first two games of this series 7-3 and 5-3. As I said yday (took the Under and 'pushed.'), a pretty clear case can be made that this is the National League's best team. They have the best record (47-23) and best run differential (+111) w/ comfortable leads in both departments. At home is where they've really been dominant as their record at Chavez Ravine is now 27-7 and they're outscoring visitors by 2.3 runs per game! Save for Wednesday's win in Colorado (which I was on!), the Cubs have now dropped 9 of 10 away from the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. Making matters even more difficult for the Cubbies tonight is they have to go against Walker Buehler. They've already faced Clayton Kershaw & Rich Hill. Buehler will be no reprieve in this department and tomorrow they'll have to see Hyun-Jin Ryu. So this series really did not set up well from the start. Buehler is 7-1 in 13 starts w/ a 0.982 WHIP and the Dodgers have won each of the last four times he's taken the mound. He's gone a combined 15 innings in his last two starts and given up just one run. As the Cubs have found out the "hard way" the L2 days, it is difficult to score here at Dodger Stadium, at least when you're the visitor. Opposing teams are scoring just 3.4 rpg here. The Cubs' scoring average on the road (5.6 rpg) was due to take a hit anyway. This could prove to be a challenging start for the Cubs' Yu Darvish. Last time he took the mound in this stadium was wearing Dodger Blue in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and he basically cost his team the game. So expect a more fired up crowd here than usual for a game in June. Darvish has been a little better of late, but overall his numbers are still below par. The Cubs are just 1-6 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. 6* LA Dodgers | |||||||
06-15-19 | Padres v. Rockies -170 | Top | 8-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
7* Colorado (8:10 ET): It was a wild one last night here at Coors Field w/ the Padres defeating the Rockies 16-12 in a game that went 12 innings. You'll get those kind of high-scoring results sometimes in the thin air of Denver, but the Padres scoring 16 runs in a game was abnormal to say the least. Keep in mind that they rallied for six runs in the ninth to tie the game at 11-11. San Diego had never overcome a deficit of 6+ runs in the ninth according to Elias nor had Colorado ever blown a lead of that size. I think the Rockies get some revenge Saturday. I can't say that I'm sold on this Padres team, which has been outscored by 33 runs this season. Last night snapped a five-game losing skid, which included a 9-6 loss here in Denver Thursday night. Though they had lost five in a row before last night's miraculous rally, San Diego is a team that has experienced mostly good fortune in 2019, at least in close games. They have 16 one-run victories this season, which is the most in all of MLB. That aforementioned run differential speaks to this being a below average team. They were just 1-5 vs. Colorado before yday's win and are 1-3 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Tonight's pitching matchup features two good starters, but I give the edge to German Marquez over Eric Lauer. Yes, the former has a much higher ERA and WHIP at home than on the road. But he still has a 7-1 TSR at Coors, so he knows how to win here. As for San Diego's Eric Lauer, he already has troubling numbers on the road (6.84 ERA), so Coors may not be for him. In fact, starting opposite Marquez here in May, Lauer gave up eight runs in only three innings. That was - by far - his worst outing all season. Marquez is unbeaten in three career starts vs. SD at home, posting a 2.93 ERA. 7* Colorado | |||||||
06-14-19 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): The Braves are rolling right now as they've won seven in a row heading into this series w/ Philadelphia. As a result of that win streak, they've surpassed the Phillies in the NL East and now lead the division by 1.5 games. But don't think Atlanta will be lacking for any motivation this weekend. They have revenge on their minds after being swept in Philly back in late March (1st series of the season). Yes, the two teams Atlanta just swept (Miami, Pittsburgh) are two of the NL's worst. But I look for them to step up big on Friday and deliver a resounding win. During the seven-game win streak, the Braves offense has scored a total of 49 runs or an average of 7.0 per game. They absolutely hammered Pirates pitching to the tune of 34 runs in four games. So that's what Phillies starter Nick Pivetta is up against here. While Pivetta has been pretty sharp lately (1.80 ERA in three starts since being recalled from Triple-A), let's not forget the reason he'd been sent down to Lehigh Valley. In his first four starts of the year, Pivetta posted an 8.35 ERA. Overall, the Phillies have dropped 8 of 13 and were shutout Wednesday (2-0) by Arizona. Atlanta's rotation has been a real pleasant surprise in 2019 and Max Fried has been one of the main contributors to that. After struggling a bit in B2B starts, Fried bounced back by allowing only three runs over six innings against Miami on Sunday. The Phillies did not face him in the first series, so there's the unfamiliarity factor. Fried has pitched very well at home this year w/ a 2.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six starts. I mentioned earlier that the Phils were shutout in their last game. That bodes well for Fried and the Braves as the last time Philly was blanked in a series finale (8-0 by the Dodgers on June 1st), they lost the opener of the next series (8-2) to San Diego. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
06-12-19 | Cubs -133 v. Rockies | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (3:10 ET): The Cubs' sweep of the Cardinals this past weekend is rapidly becoming a distant memory as they are the ones now facing the same fate here in Colorado. They lost 6-5 on Monday, then 10-3 last night. That latter result was beneficial to me as I had the Over. The Rockies really poured it on late, most notably in a five-run sixth. But let's not forget what I talked about yday: the Cubs happen to be the NL's second highest scoring road team (now at 5.6 runs per game). I have them avoiding the sweep today behind Cole Hamels. When these teams met last week at Wrigley Field in Chicago, the Rockies were fortunate enough to avoid Hamels. He's pitched very well of late, including 15 straight innings w/o allowing a single earned run (allowed one unearned). Both starts that make up that stretch came against St. Louis. The last one saw him go eight innings and not only did he not give up any runs, he allowed only three hits and struck out 10. Hamels has a 3.79 ERA in six previous starts here at Coors Field, so he won't be intimidated by the thin air. The Rockies obviously score a lot of runs at home (6.4 rpg), but they give up their fair share (6.1) as well. Anthony Senzatela is looking to make it four consecutive quality starts, but I do NOT see that happening here. He has a 5.21 ERA at Coors in five starts this year. Note the price range for this matchup as Colorado is 0-3 in 2019 when priced between +125 and +175 at home. The Cubs are a perfect 6-0 the L6 times Hamels has been coming off a quality start in his last outing. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
06-11-19 | Padres -149 v. Giants | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -149 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
8* San Diego (9:40 ET): The Padres are far from my favorite side in MLB right now, but they always seem like a better bet when Chris Paddack takes the mound. Despite coming off B2B less than steller showings, the rookie Paddack has clearly emerged as the staff ace for San Diego w/ a 2.97 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. His TSR is 7-4, but curiously his own record is just 4-4 and he obviously deserves better. The two teams he recently faced were the Phillies and Yankees, both of whom field strong lineups. It'll be a drop in class tonight facing San Francisco, who has scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB. Paddack has faced the Giants once before. It was actually his big league debut, back on March 31st. He limited them to one run over five innings. Paddack's first nine starts saw him give up no more than 3 ER, but in the last two he's given up 10 total. Again, the teams Paddack hasn't been as successful against this year are all in first place. When not facing a current division leader, his team start record is 7-1. The Giants are in last place in the NL West and have the NL's worst run differential overall (-86). They've dropped four of five overall and not scored more than three runs in any of those games. They were shutout on Sunday and have scored just seven runs total in those L5 games. Tyler Beede on the mound doesn't seem like it'll help as he has an 8.78 ERA and 1.95 WHIP after three starts. He just gave up six runs - in five innings - last week to the Mets. The Padres haven't exactly played well recently, but they are a better team than the Giants and have a significant pitching edge today. They are also 5-2 vs. SF this season. 8* San Diego | |||||||
06-10-19 | Dodgers -165 v. Angels | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:07 ET): The Dodgers have clearly emerged as the team to beat in the National League as their .682 win percentage is baseball's best. A 1-0 shutout of the Giants on Sunday made it 13 wins in the last 16 games. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves today as they send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound in search of his 10th win. So do I. Ryu has been absolutely lights out this season in compiling a 9-1 record (13 starts) w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.775 WHIP. His last start, which saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. Arizona, was the 5th time in his L6 starts that Ryu did not give up any runs. In fact, Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in any start all season! Since May 1st, he's taken the mound seven times and given up a grand total of three runs in 52 2/3 IP. That's absolutely preposterous. That's a 0.51 ERA and 0.646 WHIP, for those keeping score at home. The Dodgers have won four of those last seven starts in shutout fashion, including the last two. By the way, Ryu is 2-0 in three career starts vs. the Angels w/ a 0.83 ERA. He's even held Mike Trout hitless in seven at-bats. The Angels got beat up Sunday, losing 9-3 to Seattle. Consider the weekend a missed opportunity as the Mariners came in having not won a series of any kind since mid-May and none on the road since April. But they took two of three from the Angels, who must now step up in class to face the high-powered Dodgers. Griffin Canning has pitched well for the AL's LA team, but he won't be enough to beat the cross-town rivals as the Angels have dropped six of their last seven series openers. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
06-09-19 | Pirates v. Brewers -181 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
6* Milwaukee (2:10 ET): Might as well call for the Brewers to finish off the sweep here as the Pirates' ship is sinking fast. I had the Over in Friday's opener, which Milwaukee won (10-4), then yday's free play on the Brew Crew was another winner. Just to rehash for anyone "late to the party," the reason I've targeted the Bucs as a clear fade is their very poor YTD run differential (now -75), which to me is a clear indication that this NOT a .500-level team. Expect them to finish last in the NL Central (where I predicted them to be at the start of the season). They might have a 30-33 overall record, but Pittsburgh has now been outscored by 75 runs this year. That's the second worst differential in the entire National League (easily the worst in the division) and closing in on the Giants for the worst. That run differential is more indicative of a 24-win team. The Pirates' gap between actual & expected wins (+6) is the largest in all of baseball and a clear indication that they've actually overachieved to this point in the season. We've already seen the regression set in w/ the Bucs dropping 13 of their last 19 games. Milwaukee is heading in the other direction. They've won three straight and are 37-28 overall. They send Chase Anderson to the bump today and he held Pittsburgh to two runs the last time he faced them. But the real key here is how the Brewers' offense has feasted on Pirates' pitching, scoring 46 runs against them this season in just six games. In three of the five wins, they've scored 10 or more runs. Injuries have decimated the Pittsburgh rotation, leading to arms such as Steven Brault being used on a regular basis. Brault has a 4.76 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in four starts. He needed 93 pitches to get through four innings his last time out, an ominous sign. 6* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-08-19 | Nationals -147 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Washington (10:10 ET): As I continually harp on, a team's won-loss record can be quite misleading sometimes. Take these teams, for example. Yes, San Diego has won the first two games (both by final scores of 5-4) and has the better record. They are now 33-31 on the season, but have been outscored by 25 runs. Washington, despite being seven games below .500 (28-35), actually has a slightly better YTD run differential (at -16). The key to the Padres season, as we've seen the past two days, has been an ability to win one-run games. Their 16-6 record in such contests is baseball's best. Inevitably, that WL record in one-run games should begin regressing to the mean. Most teams finish w/ a record near .500 in one-run games over the course of a full season. A record like the Padres have should be considered extremely fortunate. Consider only one other team (Giants) has more than 12 one-run victories this season. Tonight is when the tide of this series should officially turn as the Nats send Max Scherzer to the mound. Despite still having a stunning 3-10 team start record this season, Scherzer has been pretty ridiculous of late. Scherzer's L3 starts have have seen him allow only two runs and 14 hits in 20 IP (0.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) w/ a 30-4 KW ratio. Now San Diego starter Eric Lauer has been almost as good. He's got a 1.47 ERA and 0.709 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, but the thing is that he's made it a full six innings only twice during that span. Scherzer has gone at least six innings eight straight times. He also has a 2.37 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. San Diego. The Padres have had to come from behind to win each of the last two days. Not today. 10* Washington | |||||||
06-07-19 | Mariners v. Angels -170 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -170 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): I don't need much reason to fade Seattle as I feel as I was way ahead of the curve on this one. The Mariners started the year by winning 13 of their first 15 games, but I implored anyone who would listen (or read) to not buy in as this is a team I'd earmarked for some serious regression in 2019. It's not like the front office didn't make it clear in the offseason that they weren't trying to be a contender this year. Plus, last year's 89-win team was a total mirage as it was actually outscored by 34 runs. They were due to regress this year and regress they have, winning only 13 of its last 51 games after winning 13 of the first 15! They are buried in last in the AL West, 5.5 games back of this weekend's opponent, Los Angeles. These division rivals just met last weekend, up in Seattle, and the Angels took two of three. Starting for one of those two victories was Andrew Heaney, who has brought some much needed stability to this Halos' starting rotation. In two starts, he's allowed just five runs and that actually undersells his performance as he's allowed only seven hits and has 18 K's in 11 IP. He has a 0.727 WHIP. The Mariners are just 5-14 in games against left-handed starters this year and - just as I said it would two months ago - their offense has really begun to slow down. They are batting a collective .214 the L7 games. The Angels lost yday, 7-4 to Oakland, one night removed from a 10-9 win where they rallied back from an early six-run deficit. But this is a worse spot for Seattle, who had to go 14 innings Thursday afternoon and lost 8-7 to Houston in a game that lasted 5+ hours. Though Friday's starter Marco Gonzales is 4-1 lifetime vs. the Angels (11 starts), including a 3.10 ERA in five starts here in LA, he was hammered for 10 runs by them last weekend. The team has lost seven straight times w/ him on the mound and scored no more than four runs in any of those games. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
06-07-19 | Braves -185 v. Marlins | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
6* Atlanta (7:10 ET): Miami has been playing much better of late, but Atlanta was pretty clearly priced too low for this series opener, especially considering they'll have Mike Soroka on the hill. Thus far, Soroka has been pretty much lights out w/ a 1.41 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in nine starts. He'll be facing a Marlins team that has scored the fewest runs in the National League, even after winning 13 of its last 19. Yesterday saw the Fish revert back to their "usual ways" scoring only one run in a loss at Milwaukee. They average just 3.2 per game here at home. Back on May 4th, Soroka faced Miami and permitted only a pair of unearned runs in seven innings. He allowed just three hits as well. Every start this season has seen Soroka allow 3 ER or fewer. In fact, the three he allowed in his last start (10-5 win over Detroit) were a season-high. Prior to that, he'd never allowed more than 1 ER in any start and had only allowed two total in two starts because of unearned runs. One of the clear front-runners for NL Rookie of the Year, Soroka went 3-0 w/ a 0.79 ERA in May (five starts). He last lost a decision all the way back on April 18th, which was his season debut. There's a lot of buzz in the Atlanta clubhouse right now due to the impending arrival of another starter, Dallas Keuchel, who was just signed as a free agent. But it's Soroka that's key here going against this putrid Miami lineup. Also, starting here for the Marlins is Jose Urena, who has a 2-7 record and 6.07 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Atlanta. The Braves don't like Urena either as he threw at Ronald Acuna Jr last season. Urena has been better of late (5 straight quality starts), but he won't be able to outduel Soroka here. Miami 2-10 as ML home dog of +125 to +175 this year. 6* Atlanta | |||||||
06-06-19 | Giants v. Mets -167 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
7* NY Mets (12:10 ET): The Mets blanked the Giants last night, 7-0, and now can take the series w/ a win Thurs afternoon. Last night was somewhat of a "bittersweet" victory for the Metropolitans as - just hours after his return from the DL - Robinson Cano was lost to a hamstring injury. Still, that hardly mattered w/ Jason Vargas tossing a CG shutout (his 1st in two years). The Giants aren't a good team as they now have the worst run differential (-77) in the entire National League. I have zero hesitation fading them in this spot. The Mets are now 10-2 their L12 home games. Starting today for the home team will be Zack Wheeler. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and while his ERA is 4.22, his WHIP is 0.821. Despite winning all three starts, a case could definitely be made that Wheeler has been somewhat unfortunate to give up 10 runs in 21 1/3 IP. After all, he's allowed only 16 hits and three walks. The home run has been a bit of an issue (five allowed), but he has 23 strikeouts as well. The Giants are NOT a strong offensive ballclub as they are 28th in runs scored, not to mention 29th in both team batting average and OPS. Wheeler has a 3.03 ERA in six previous starts vs. SF. The Giants will go w/ Shaun Anderson in this spot, hoping he can replicate the performance in his last start when he pitched a career-high seven innings and allowed just two runs for his first big-league win. But that was also at the expense of lowly Baltimore. Both bullpens have been overworked recently (well, not the Mets yday) and if that becomes a factor today, it's likely to be w/ the Giants, who are not getting many long efforts from their starters. Anderson didn't make it past the fifth in any of his first three starts. The Giants are 1-6 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. 7* NY Mets | |||||||
06-05-19 | Yankees -186 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-11 | Loss | -186 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
6* NY Yankees (7:07 ET): The Yankees suffered a surprise loss last night to the Blue Jays. "Surprise" in the sense that they (NY) were heavily favored & the Jays came in riding a season-worst six-game losing streak. But that's over now as Toronto benefited from the rare "off-night" from the NY offense, though it's not like the team wearing pinstripes didn't have its fair amount of chances. They went 1 for 12 w/ RISP, leaving 11 men on base, and thus failed to score at least four runs for the first time in the L15 games. But I think they bounce back here. Even w/ the win yday, Toronto still has lost 10 of its last 12. Remember what I wrote in yday's analysis ... "Toronto comes into the week ranked dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (.205) at home and they're also right near the bottom in both runs scored and OPS." They were fortunate last night in that an injury-riddled Yankees lineup didn't perform up to its usual standard. The Blue Jays have still been held to two runs or fewer 23 times this season, the most for any American League club. After a win this season, Toronto has gone just 7-14. Off a loss, the Yankees are 13-7 (and 101-57 the L3 yrs). Making the challenge even tougher here for the Jays is the fact they have to go up against James Paxton. While recent efforts haven't gone long, Paxton still sports a 5-0 team start record in his L5 starts and hasn't given up an earned run in four of them. So, he doesn't need much run support, yet he figures to get more than Masahiro Tanaka did yday as the Yanks offense still averages over 6.0 rpg on the road. While just like yday, I like this game to go Under (see elsewhere in three-pack), the Yanks probably won't have much issue w/ Tyler Thornton (6.23 ERA, 1.577 WHIP, 0-3 at home) even though they've never faced him. This is the 1st time the Yankees have been off B2B losses since April 30th-May 1 (in Arizona). They haven't lost three straight since a five-game slide very early in the year (which included them being swept by Houston). 6* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-05-19 | White Sox v. Nationals -173 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
7* Washington (1:05 ET): I've been incredibly disappointed by the Nationals' start to the season, but at least there are injuries to blame here. The good news is that there's still a lot of time left to rectify the situation and no one is running away w/ the NL East. The Nats are a team I earmarked for improvement in 2019, despite the defection of Bryce Harper to the division rival Phillies, as last year's team was better than the record showed. They did win yday, 9-5 over the White Sox, and should make it a sweep of this short Interleague series on Wednesday. The White Sox are only two games below .500, but they've been outscored by 47 runs, which tells me bad times are ahead. Regular followers of mine know that I am firmly of the belief that run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual won-loss record. For the sake of reference, Washington is six games below .500 right now, but has only been outscored by 16 runs this season. That - and the homefield edge - explains why the Nats can be such prohibitive favorites in this one. The Nats have also won three straight overall and do have the "cache" as well. There are few troubling trends for the White Sox heading into this one: (1) they are just 10-20 in day games this year (55-92 L3 seasons) and (2) they are 12-29 their L41 Interleague games. I know Dylan Covey pitched well for them his last time out, but that was at home. On the road, Covey has a 7.36 ERA and an 0-3 record. I know the Washington bullpen can be a pain, but starter Anibal Sanchez threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball in his last start and has allowed only 3 ER in his last 16 1/3 IP. 7* Washington | |||||||
06-04-19 | Red Sox -176 v. Royals | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:15 ET): The Red Sox really struggled out of the gate in 2019, but that may very well have been a reflection of their lax approach to Spring Training. The reigning World Champs have climbed back over .500 (30-29) as they've gone 19-12 over the L31 games. They'd actually dropped four in a row prior to Sunday night's 8-5 win in New York, their first time beating the Yankees all season. But run differential (+31) indicates that Boston is "just fine" moving forward and should be at least a Wild Card when the playoffs roll around. I like the Sox quite a bit in tonight's series opener at KC. The Royals probably aren't as bad as their 19-40 record, which is second worst in all of baseball, just one game ahead of Baltimore. But they simply can't seem to get out of their own way and this series looks to be a terrible matchup on paper for them. They come in on a three-game losing streak and have won only four times since mid-May. They're 1-6 the L7 games, averaging less than three runs per game. Thus, it's going to be very tough here to compete against a Boston offense that ranks 6th in runs per game and is 7th in OPS. Kansas City is 21st and 20th in those two categories. They are also a horrible 8-23 in night games. The starting matchup would also seem to favor Boston here, even though Glenn Sparkman has the better numbers compared to Eduardo Rodriguez. But that's a real limited sample size for Sparkman (just two starts) and the last time we saw him was in the "opener" role and he gave up four runs in a single inning before getting ejected. Rodriguez is 5-1 w/ a 3.93 ERA his L9 starts (8-1 TSR) and is coming off perhaps his best outing of the year as he held Houston to 1 run in 6 IP and got the 'W' as a +155 ML dog. 8* Boston | |||||||
06-04-19 | Braves -154 v. Pirates | Top | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Pirates have been a target of mine for some time now as their won-loss record simply does not "match up" w/ their YTD run differential. While sporting a 28-30 record, the Bucs have actually been outscored this season by a whopping 68 runs. That's third worst in the National League and a lot closer to the likes of Miami (21 wins) and San Francisco (24) than any of the teams in their own division. Bottom line is that no team has exceeded its "expected win total" (based on run diff) more than this one as they are +6. I expect the losing to continue Monday vs. Atlanta. Pittsburgh just dropped three of four in their last series (w/ Milwaukee). Since I first wrote about this club's impending downfall (back on May 21st), they have gone 4-10 overall, including 2-8 here at PNC Park. It hasn't helped that they played 27 games in 27 days prior to Monday's off day. But they are now just 11-17 in home games for the year. A big issue that the Pirates are facing right now is injuries to the starting rotation. The team has had to turn to some less than stellar arms and the results are about what you'd expect. Tonight, it will be Steven Brault starting. While he does have a 3-0 TSR, that's very misleading as his ERA & WHIP are 5.54 and 1.615 respectively. Atlanta has generally played well of late, winning 14 of their last 21 games. A big key here is the price range as they are 15-5 the L3 seasons as a road favorite of -125 to -175, including a perfect 4-0 in 2019. They send their own southpaw - Max Fried - to the bump on Monday. Fried has a 7-3 record in 11 starts w/ a 3.28 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. So his numbers are a lot better than his counterpart's. The Braves have a winning record on the road overall this season and have also fared better in games vs. LH starters than Pittsburgh has (10-5 vs. 6-9). It really can't be understated how poorly the Pirates have played at home as they're being outscored by 1.8 rpg here. That's the worst margin in the entire Senior Circuit. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
06-03-19 | Phillies -128 v. Padres | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
9* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): It's the first time matching up this season for these two teams and quite frankly, neither is playing well right now. However, there is a big difference between getting swept by the mighty Dodgers (what happened to Phillies) and losing two in a row at home to lowly Miami (Padres' fate). San Diego has not played well of late (2-5 L7 games overall), a point that was driven home w/ consecutive 9-3 home losses to the Marlins over the weekend. The Padres are now below .500 at Petco Park this season and I don't see that changing after Monday. A swarm of bees delaying yday's game for about 20 minutes was the only excitement for the home team yday here at Petco. The Padres' offense seemed rather lifeless w/ two of their three runs and two of their four hits not coming until the ninth inning. It figures to be yet another tough day at the plate tonight against Phillies' starter Aaron Nola, who comes in red hot. Nola has yet to drop a decision in 2019 (6-0 in 12 starts) and has gone 4-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA his L5 outings. The team has won each of the last six times Nola has taken the mound. In five previous starts vs. SD, Nola has a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP w/ the Padres batting only .180 against him. The Phils were blanked 8-0 by the Dodgers yday, their 4th loss in a row overall. Yet they still lead the NL East w/ a 33-26 record. They were outscored 18-6 in the three games at LA, but this series is a drop in class from that one. San Diego, despite a winning overall record, has actually been outscored by 28 runs this season. The Bryce Harper-Manny Machado matchup will be hyped to death here, simply because of the salaries the two individuals commanded, but pay little mind to it. Harper's team is the better one. San Diego goes w/ Eric Lauer here and despite a recent string of quality efforts, he's still got a 4.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the year as opponents are batting .259 against him. 9* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-01-19 | Brewers -176 v. Pirates | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
7* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): Those pesky Pirates managed to beat the Brewers last night by a score of 9-4. That was fine by me (as I had the Over), but my view of the Bucs still has not changed. This is a bad baseball team masquerading as a .500 club. They have the NL's third worst run differential (at -64). so the fact they have a 28-28 WL record is highly misleading. As I've written about previously, Pittsburgh has the largest gap between actual & expected win totals (+7) in all of MLB. I'm 2 for 2 in this series already (had Milwaukee Thursday) and look to make it 3 for 3 here as it's back to the Brew Crew on Saturday. In the analysis for yday's game, I said to be wary of Jhoulys Chacin, who was starting for Milwaukee. He came into the game w/ a 1.625 WHIP his L3 starts and had poor career marks vs. the Pirates. Sure enough, he'd given up seven runs before the third innings was even complete. But I have no hesitation backing today's starter Brandon Woodruff, who checks in w/ a 7-1 record in 11 starts (9-2 TSR) to go along w/ a 3.22 ERA and 1.088 WHIP. Woodruff has been insane his L6 starts, allowing two or fewer runs every time out. He's allowed just six runs total in his last 38 IP. All six starts have resulted in Milwaukee victories. Eventually, Josh Bell will be unable to continue carrying this Pirates' lineup. Bell finished May w/ 94 total bases, the most by any player in that month since the great Willie Mays all the way back in 1958. Perhaps having to face Woodruff, who allowed just one hit in his last start (went eight innings) will be the start of Bell's inevitable regression at the plate. Also, Milwaukee has a huge pitching advantage in this game w/ Nick Kingman set to go for Pittsburgh. Kingman hasn't won as a starter since last July and has an 8.53 ERA in the role this season (three starts). The odds tell you "all you need to know" for this matchup (compare them to yday) and I love the idea of fading the Bucs off a win. 7* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-01-19 | Indians -110 v. White Sox | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (2:10 ET): What a terrible start to this series for the Indians, who happen to have been on each of the last two days. They've lost to the White Sox by scores of 10-4 and 6-1, which simply shouldn't be happening if the Tribe still fashion themselves as a true playoff contender. Yes, Chicago is playing its best baseball of the season right now (season-high five-game win streak), but three of those wins were against the last place Royals. While the White Sox have managed to beat Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer the L2 days, I still think Cleveland is an outstanding value in this spot. The Indians actually scored the game's first run last night, on a Francisco Lindor HR, but that was it for them in terms of scoring. They did finish w/ nine hits, almost as many as the White Sox, but few got into scoring position and even then the team was 0 for 5 when they did. There were also four Cleveland errors, which didn't help. Look for the sloppiness to be cleaned up today though. I also like the Indians' hitters chances against the struggling Ivan Nova, who has a 6.52 ERA and 1.719 WHIP for Chicago. Nova was better his last time out (against KC), but there have been five starts where he's allowed 5+ runs. Now Nova did pitch well against the Indians earlier in the year. But that was in Cleveland. At home this year, he has a 11.81 ERA and 2.312 WHIP, so that's where the majority of bad starts have come. It should mentioned the Cleveland starter Jefrey Rodriguez has been hit relatively hard in each of his L3 starts, all losses. But he too pitched well earlier this season when he faced off w/ today's opponent (allowed 2 runs in 6 IP). This boils down to the fact that the White Sox have still been outscored by 42 runs this year, so it's a little misleading they have the same record as the Indians (-17). 10* Cleveland | |||||||
05-31-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -114 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This is a big revenge spot for the Redbirds, who got swept out in Wrigley earlier this month. May has been mostly unkind to the Cardinals as they have lost 18 of 25. But they do return home on a positive note having downed the first place Phillies yday afternoon by a 5-3 count. Few, if any, will be happier to be back in the confines of Busch Stadium than today's starter Miles Mikolas, who has pitched quite well at home in 2019. He has a 3.15 ERA and 0.825 WHIP here in six starts, so it's a little surprising to see the team start record at only 3-3. Really, a compelling case can be made that the Cardinals are underachieving as a whole right now considering they have outscored their opponents this year, but are still a game below .500. The Cubs were also able to avoid a sweep by winning yday. Theirs came at home, however, against the mighty Astros. They won 2-1, a real change of pace from recent games as the Over had hit each of the previous seven times the Cubs hit the field. As you might expect, they'd been giving up plenty of runs during that stretch, 50 total to be exact. Don't look for that to change here w/ Yu Darvish on the hill. Recently, Darvish had shown signs of improvement, but that was before he was hit hard by Cincinnati in his last outing, which saw him give up six runs and 12 hits. The Reds homered off him three times. The Cubs were very lucky to win that game 8-6. Save for one bad outing (at Texas on 5.17), Mikolas has pitched pretty well this season. He's certainly well rested, having started just once in the last 13 days. That was exactly one week ago and he turned in a quality effort vs. Atlanta, giving up just three runs in 7 IP. Unfortunately, he did not have the same good fortune Darvish had in his last start and the Cards lost that game 5-2. But Mikolas has allowed more than 3 ER just twice in his L7 starts and I see him leading his team to a crucial NL Central victory on Friday night. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
05-31-19 | Indians -158 v. White Sox | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -158 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:10 ET): My read on this matchup proved incorrect yday, but I'm still coming back w/ the Indians tonight. They are the superior side and while words such as "mercurial" and "inconsistent" could be used to describe Friday's starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, when he's at his best, he's one of the top starters in the game. The White Sox, even though they were able to win 10-4 yday, are not a very good ballclub. They actually own a slightly worse YTD run differential (-47) than the last place Royals (whom they swept earlier in the week). Bauer has been subpar in five of his last six outings. That's pretty shocking for a pitcher that was considered to be on the "shortlist" for AL Cy Young candidates. One of the rougher outings actually came against these White Sox, at home, where he allowed seven runs in just five innings. But the good news for Bauer is that he's pitched better on the road this year than at Progressive Field. On the road, he has a 2.39 ERA and 1.064 WHIP. He also still has an 8-4 career record vs. the White Sox in 17 starts. Bauer has been a good "stopper" in the past for Cleveland as his TSR when the team allowed 5+ runs in its last game is 7-3. Chicago's current four-game win streak is a season-high, but poised to end today. Good news for Bauer and the Indians is that Dylan Covey is starting here for the White Sox. It's been a tough stretch for Covey, who has bounced back and forth between the big league club and Triple-A Charlotte. Nowhere has he been effective as he's winless in his L4 starts w/ a 5.75 ERA. Furthermore, he has a 4.24 ERA in nine career starts vs. Cleveland (0-4 TSR L4). Last time out, Covey allowed four runs for the third time in those L4 starts. Cleveland is still 27-12 the L39 games in this AL Central rivalry. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
05-30-19 | Indians -174 v. White Sox | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -174 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
7* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The White Sox may be coming off a three-game sweep here, but considering who the opponent was (Royals), that's really not all that impressive. The Southsiders remain a poor ballclub, which can quickly be confirmed by their -53 run differential that is tied for third worst in the American League. Things weren't looking so good for the Indians recently either as they followed a somewhat disastrous 4-7 homestand (three of the wins were over Baltimore) w/ a blowout loss in Boston (12-5 on Memorial Day). But the Tribe turned it around the L2 days w/ B2B wins at Fenway, including a big 14-9 win yday where they finished w/ a season-high 18 hits. I look for that to "carry over" into this weekend series. With the Indians hitting better now, that should take some of the pressure off Thursday's starter Carlos Carrasco, who struggled his last time out. But that was against a quality foe in Tampa Bay. Prior to that, he'd been pretty impressive, not even giving up a single run in four of his previous six starts. Two of those were against these White Sox, whom he held scoreless for a total of 12 innings. The Indians won the two games 5-0 and 9-0, the former coming at home and the latter here in Chicago. Both times the White Sox got blanked by Carrasco, it was Manny Banuelos starting for them. Don't look for the third time to be the charm for Banuelos as he carries a poor 9.49 ERA and 2.108 WHIP (six starts) into Thursday. In those previous two starts vs. Cleveland, he surrendered 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings and five home runs. Look for him to come out on the "short end of the stick" yet again as Cleveland is a perfect 2-0 this season priced as a road favorite of -175 or higher and 33-15 in that role the L3 seasons. 7* Cleveland | |||||||
05-30-19 | Brewers -111 v. Pirates | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): We unsuccessfully went against Pittsburgh yday, but will fade them again today for virtually the same reasons. The Pirates may have a .500 record (27-27) on the year, but are actually playing to the level of a team that should have a .370 win percentage based on their very poor YTD run differential (-63). That run differential is 3rd worst right now in the entire National League, so I was very surprised that the Bucs were able to leave Cincinnati w/ a split of the four-game series. But this weekend finds them playing an even tougher opponent and this first game should be a loss. The Brewers are in second place in the NL Central, only three games up on Pittsburgh, even w/ a vastly superior YTD run differential. A nice little edge for the Brew Crew here is that they had yday off. Their last series was a short one as they split two games in Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Pirates have played four games in the last three days (doubleheader Monday, which does them no favors. Back to the run differential for a moment - as I stated yday, no team has a bigger gap between actual and expected (based on run diff) win total than Pittsburgh. Now they're not only overachieving (and set to regress), but also in a bad situational spot. Milwaukee is 30-18 after an off-day and will send Chase Anderson to the bump Thursday night. Anderson has worked out of the bullpen and started four times. He has a 2.55 ERA as a starter and while he's yet to go longer than five innings in any outing, he's also never given up more than 3 ER. The Brewers have a good bullpen as well. Pittsburgh goes w/ Joe Musgrove, who I went against in his last start (vs. the Dodgers) and he gave up six runs in five innings. Musgrove now has a poor 6.10 ERA here at PNC Park. The Brewers are simply a better team here as I'm going to look to fade the Pirates regularly due to their poor run differential. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
05-29-19 | Mets v. Dodgers -187 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): High price to fade Noah Syndergaard, but given the state of the respective TEAMS here, it's certainly justifiable. It's not like Syndegaard has pitched that well either. The Mets have lost the last two times he's taken the mound w/ the last start being a shockingly poor performance against Detroit, who brought the American League's lowest scoring offense to Citi Field, played w/o the DH and still scored six runs off Syndergaard in just 5 1/3 innings. Syndergaard now has a 4.93 ERA and 1.255 WHIP on the season. A matchup w/ the red-hot Dodgers is unlikely to change his current trajectory. The Dodgers have the NL's best record right now at 36-19. That's after losing to the Mets last night, 7-3. LA is still hitting a collective .314 over the last week though and averaging 6.7 runs per game. At home is where they've truly been dominant this season. Dodger Blue is outscoring teams by 2.2 rpg here at Chavez Ravine and thus has gone 20-7 here. Tonight they send out Walker Buehler, who has been downright filthy of late and really all year. Over his last three starts, Buehler has allowed just five runs (in 19 IP) and three were unearned. He has 20 K's vs. just two walks, posting a 0.95 ERA and WHIP. Buehler has gone seven straight starts w/o being charged with more than 3 ER and that streak is likely to continue here. The Dodgers are 8-2 this season as a home favorite of -175 to -250 and 64-27 in that same price range the L3 seasons. Furthermore, the Mets are just 2-7 in 2018 when priced at +125 or higher on the road. They are 31-66 the L3 seasons in that range. Off a loss, the Dodgers are 12-6 this year and they haven't dropped B2B games all month. A grand slam was the difference yday as the Mets won for just the third time in 17 tries against LA. That won't be happening again here. 6* LA Dodgers | |||||||
05-29-19 | Pirates v. Reds -147 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -147 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): Last time we checked in on these teams was Monday when I played the Reds in the second game of a doubleheader. They won (after dropping the first game), 8-1, and then followed that up by winning 11-6 yday as well (led by Derek Dietrich's THREE home runs). As was heavily discussed in Tuesday's analysis, this is a series we had circled for a number of reasons, most of them based off the respective YTD run differentials (which hardly correspond to the respective records). I was unable to play yday's game (line not available until late morning/early afternoon), but will pounce on Cincinnati yet again this afternoon. So the Reds are much better than their record. While they're currently last in the NL Central (26-29), they've actually outscored the opposition by 41 runs this season. That's the 5th best differential in the entire National League! Their offense has definitely woken up the L2 games and perhaps even more encouraging was the outing yday from Lucas Sims, who was called up and delivered career highs in strikeouts (9) and innings pitched (7 1/3). Today it will be Anthony DeSclafani on the hill. While he's struggled of late, I think like the rest of his team, he's in line for a resurgence. The Reds have still won 6 of his last 7 starts. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of 9 and is now below .500 for the 1st time since May 3rd. Quite frankly, they should feel extremely fortunate to have been above .500 for so long. This is a team that has been outscored by 68 runs this season, the third worst differential in the NL and fifth worst overall. That run differential is indicative of a team that "should have" 19 wins, not 26. The Bucs' gap between actual and expected wins is currently the largest in all of MLB. Their rotation is in total shambles right now with another injury taking place last night. That brings us to Steven Brault, who gets the start tonight. While his TSR is 2-0, Brault has a 9.39 ERA and 2.086 WHIP. He and his team are due for a loss here. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
05-27-19 | Pirates v. Reds -150 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This is a play on the second game of the Pirates-Reds doubleheader. The play stands regardless what happens in the first game, which takes place during the daytime. Pittsburgh isn't in very good shape now as they come off a 1-5 homestand and were just swept by the Dodgers. This downturn is something I wrote about extensively before it happened. Bottom line is the Bucs' run differential hardly corresponds w/ their won-loss record. They might technically be a .500 team right now (25-25), but they've actually been outscored by 59 runs. The gap between the Pirates' actual and expected (based on run differential) win total is the largest in either league right now at +6. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have the Reds, who have underachieved more than any other team. They are just 24-28, but have a +32 run differential. That's indicative of a 30-win team. They just took two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, including a 10-2 win Sunday. In addition to the projection regression/progression to the mean we're likely to see from the respective teams here, this is also a big revenge spot for Cincy, who was swept in Pittsburgh back in early April. I've also previously written about the fact the Pirates' starting rotation is currently in shambles due to injuries. Off an 11-7 loss to the Dodgers on Sunday, they'll be turning to top prospect Mitch Keller on the mound here. This will be Keller's big league debut and skipper Clint Hurdle has even admitted to this being a rush job. "In a perfect world, we would've given him some more time (in the minors)." The Reds counter w/ Sonny Gray, who threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball at Milwaukee last time out (team won 3-0). Though it was his first win of the season, Grey has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his 10 starts. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
05-27-19 | Cubs v. Astros -172 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
6* Houston (2:05 ET): The Astros have - not surprisingly - emerged as one of the top teams in the American League this season, if not in all of baseball. While they did lose Sunday - 4-1 to the Red Sox - all that did was prevent them from sweeping what had been a pretty hot team. The club still sits well out in front of the rest of the AL West (6.5 game lead) and has played .648 baseball, which is the fourth best win percentage in all of baseball. Starting Memorial Day, they welcome in another worthy adversary, this time it being the Cubs, but I fully expect the home team to be up to the challenge - at least on Monday. Gerrit Cole gets the baseball for the opener and there's no sugarcoating how poor his last start went. In five innings, he gave up six runs and that was to the White Sox no less. But the Astros righty had made one bad start before (at Texas on 4.20) and subsequently recovered nicely. In fact, seven of his previous nine starts (before last week's vs. the White Sox) had been quality. He leads all of MLB w/ 100 K's and has gone 9-3 all-time vs. the Cubs. The Astros have won 17 of their last 22 games overall and yday's loss was an aytpical poor effort in the field. The Cubs lost 10-2 to the Reds on Sunday, falling for the third time in the last four games. They are still division leaders as well, mind you, but the resume isn't quite as impressive. The Astros have them beat not only in terms of record, but also run differential. Something to keep an eye on here is that Kris Bryant left yday's game after colliding w/ Jason Heyward. Starting pitcher Cole Hamels went a season-low four innings his last time out and has posted a 1.687 WHIP his L3 starts. Houston has not played any Interleague games yet, but went 32-15 against the National League the last two years. 6* Houston | |||||||
05-26-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -142 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:05 ET): A four-run eighth inning last night was just what the doctor ordered for the Cardinals as they won for just the third time in the last nine games, beating the Braves 6-3. Now they look for B2B wins for the first time in almost a month. That seems shocking to type, but it's true as the Redbirds have gone just 7-15 here in May. Yet they have still maintained a +21 run differential on the year, which tells me that this team is better than its record (26-25). I look for them to get the win tonight on ESPN behind Jack Flaherty, who has pitched well here at Busch Stadium. Flaherty has a 2.48 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in five home starts, so St. Louis looks to be in good hands here. Last time out, he made a quality start in Texas, holding the Rangers to two runs on four hits over six innings. That's no small feat. The Rangers are #2 in MLB in scoring and because the game took place in an American League park, Flaherty had to contend w/ a lineup that had a designated hitter in it. Not so here and Atlanta comes in batting just .232 its last seven games. Flaherty has gone at least five innings in every start here in May w/o giving up more than 3 ER. Meanwhile, it's been a tale of two months for Braves starter Julio Teheran. He was very bad in April (5.35 ERA), but has greatly recovered in May (0.79 ERA). Still Teheran's strikeout numbers are not that impressive (18 in 22 2/3 IP) and that's against 11 walks. He's allowed only two runs on 10 hits during that time, which includes five shutout innings against these same Cardinals back on May 16th. But that was at home. Teheran is just 1-3 on the road (3-4 TSR). St. Louis is outscoring teams by a full run per game here at home, so I'm surprised their record isn't better here. Take them. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
05-25-19 | Dodgers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
7* LA Dodgers (7:15 ET): It was earlier this week that I wrote a rather sudden downfall was forthcoming for Pittsburgh. My reasoning was similar to the bleak projection I had for Detroit not long ago. In both cases, it was all about run differential. Detroit continues to have one of the worst in the sport (-95), so you should expect to see them continue to flounder the rest of the season. The case of the Pirates may be even more curious. While still two games above .500, the Bucs have actually been outscored by 50 runs this season! That's third worst in the entire National League! Pittsburgh did take three of four from San Diego last weekend, but this week is when I predicted things might start to "go South." They have w/ the team dropping three of four. It began Tuesday when I had a 10* release against them (on Colorado). After dropping two of three to the Rockies, the Pirates lost Friday's opener w/ the Dodgers by a score of 10-2. I don't see Saturday starter Joe Musgrove turning the tide as he has a 6.06 ERA his last three starts. That doesn't even include him allowing seven runs in just 2 2/3 innings against Oakland, his last start here at PNC Park. The Dodgers are obviously a very good team and they'll be sending a very good pitcher to the mound tonight in the form of Hyun-Jin Ryu. To say Ryu has been "lights out" of late would be putting it mildly. He hasn't allowed a single run in three consecutive outings and has allowed just 12 men on base in 24 IP. Ryu has yet to allow more than two runs in any start. If anything, he's underachieved w/ a 6-3 team start record as his ERA and WHIP are 1.52 and 0.741 respectively. He leads the NL in KW ratio (59-4) and opponents are hitting just .190 off him. By the way, Ryu is perfect all-time vs. Pittsburgh, going 5-0 in five starts w/ a 2.31 ERA. This is as one-sided as it gets. 7* LA Dodgers | |||||||
05-23-19 | Rays -181 v. Indians | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
7* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): This was supposed to Blake Snell going for the Rays, but both he and Charlie Morton have been pushed back a day for rest purposes. Thus, it will be an unannounced "opener" followed by Ryan Yarbrough instead. I think the Rays will do just fine though against a Cleveland team that just got swept at home for the first time in two year. The Indians' hitting has become a major concern, ranking in the bottom four in the American League in runs scored. No pitching staff in baseball has given up fewer runs than has Tampa Bay's. When I took Cleveland back on Monday, I thought they had a good chance to build off the "momentum" (still hate that word) from the previous series when they took three of four from Baltimore. Instead, not only did they lose Monday to the A's, they were swept. Turns out the offense that "woke up" versus the Orioles was probably just a byproduct of facing the worst staff in MLB. Oakland held the Tribe to just nine runs in three games and I simply don't see the home team turning things around here against a Tampa Bay staff that is holding opponents to 3.3 runs per game and a .217 batting average. Yarbrough is being recalled from Triple A where he posted a 2.14 ERA and 30-3 KW ratio. He has made five relief appearances for the big league club already. He faced Cleveland once, last season, and allowed just one run on two hits. The Rays, who beat the Dodgers yday 8-1, are 15-7 on the road and actually slightly underperfoming according to run differential. Cleveland sends Adam Plutko to the bump tonight and this will be just his second start. He allowed just a solo HR his first time out, but that was against Baltimore. It's a big step up in class here to face one of the American League's top teams. 7* Tampa Bay | |||||||
05-23-19 | Nationals -140 v. Mets | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
8* Washington (12:10 ET): The Nationals season just keeps getting more and more disappointing as they are facing the prospect of being swept here by the Mets. Keep in mind that the Mets were floundering in their own right coming into this series. They'd been shutout in B2B games (by Miami!) last weekend, a pair of losses where they had only three hits. I'm truly confounded by Washington's poor start to the season as this was a team I had vastly improving in 2019. I know there have been injuries and the bullpen has been poor. But I still expect better out of the Nation's Capital. Enter Stephen Strasburg to save the day. He'll get the start Thursday afternoon and the last time he took the mound also happens to the last time the Nats won. It's the team's lone victory in the L6 games. Despite only having a 5-5 TSR, Strasburg has done "his part" this season by posting a 3.32 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. He's already faced the Mets twice in '19, the last time saw him throw 6 2/3 innings of scoreless, three-hit bal in this stadiu. Five of Strasburg's last six starts have seen him surrender 2 ER or fewer. The Mets will go w/ Steven Matz, who is unbeaten here at home (3-0 TSR). He only made in 3 2/3 innings his last start, which was a loss at Miami. Like Strasburg, Matz didn't allow any runs the last time he faced today's opponent. It should be noted that all six Mets' runs yday came in a stunning eighth inning rally. It was the second straight come from behind victory. Again, the Nationals are better than this. They are 71-28 in Strasburg's last 99 starts, including 16-2 if it's Game 4 of a series. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-22-19 | Braves -145 v. Giants | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (9:45 ET): These teams come into Wednesday having split the first two of this four-game set. The Braves won the opener on Monday, 4-1, but then lost last night by a score of 4-3. Note that it appeared they were well on their way to winning a second straight, but gave up three runs in the bottom of the ninth w/ the game-winning hit (2-run single) coming w/ two outs. But it looks like the oddsmakers took a pretty clear position on tonight's matchup and sharp money came in and immediately backed the road team. For good reason too; Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 this season as a -125 to -175 ML favorite on the road and 14-5 the L3 seasons. The Braves were NOT in this price range for yesterday's game, but were Monday (closed -140). Had they closed the deal last night, then Atlanta would be 6-1 its last seven games. During that stretch, they've scored 5.6 runs per game and hit a collective .283. As they look to bounce back here, they'll send Max Fried to the hill. Last week, Fried threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball and that was against a Milwaukee lineup that typically has little difficulty scoring runs. The Giants, on the other hand, are one of the weakest offensive teams in all of baseball. Fried should be effective yet again here. The Giants average only 3.1 rpg at home this year while hitting a collective .207. Both of those numbers rank 29th in all of baseball (home games only). This SF club may only be 21-26 and in last place in the NL West standings, but they've actually overachieved some in my eyes. Last night's win improved them to a MLB-best 13-4 in one-run games. By run differential (-44), they've played to the level of an 18-win team. Starter Jeff Samardzija threw a season-low 68 pitches his last time out, but the former Notre Dame wide receiver has a 6.28 ERA/1.465 WHIP his L3 starts overall. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
05-22-19 | Reds -105 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): This play sets up very similar to yday's 10* SUPER POWER winner on Colorado over Pittsburgh. The only difference being is this time we're playing ON a team who, according to run differential, has underachieved (in terms of wins & losses) so far this season. Yesterday, it was playing AGAINST an overachiever in Pittsburgh, who has somehow managed to stay above .500 despite a very poor YTD run differential. Today we're looking at a Reds team that is far better than its record shows as despite being four games below .500, they've actually outscored their opponents by 27 runs over the course of the season! To put the Reds' YTD run differential in its proper perspective, note that it's second best in the division and fourth best overall in the National League! But perhaps yday was the start of a long overdue surge. They shut Milwaukee out 3-0, the MLB-leading 7th time they've shut an opponent out this season. The number of shutouts obviously has a somewhat drastic effect on the run differential as the Reds' staff has given up the second fewest runs in all of baseball (#1 in NL). Milwaukee did not have its best hitter (Christian Yelich) in the lineup Tuesday and as as result they managed only three hits and never got a runner past second base. Yelich is being reevaluated for today, but probably won't play given it's a day game. He's already missed a number of games due to the back issues. Today's starting pitching matchup brings two of the top four pitchers in ERA against one another. Luis Castillo has a 1.90 ERA (and 0.957 WHIP) in 10 starts while Milwaukee's Zach Davies has a 1.54 ERA (and 1.177 WHIP). So this shapes up as another pitchers duel, which is probably the way the Reds want it. Without Yelich, you have to wonder about the Brewers' offense. Let's also go back to the subject of run differential as the Reds are +27 while Milwaukee is only +11. This Reds team is vastly underrated right now. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
05-21-19 | Rockies -116 v. Pirates | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Colorado (7:05 ET): So I've had an eye on this matchup for the last several days. The reason being is that Pittsburgh is a team I'll be looking to fade more and more. This is because they have overachieved greatly in getting to 24-20 on the season. Despite being above .500, the Pirates have actually been outscored this season by 39 runs, which is easily the worst differential in their division and third worst overall in the National League. The gap between their actual and expected win total (+7) is the largest in all of MLB right now. Considering they just won three in a row, it's "high time" they "paid the piper." Colorado comes into PNC Park on a four-game losing skid. They were just swept in Philadelphia, though every game was close and two of the three losses were one-run games. The Rockies excelled in one-run games LY (going 21-14), but as is often the case, things go "sideways" the following year and they are just 5-9 in such games in 2019. But help is on the way Monday in the form of starter German Marquez, who has been outstanding outside of Coors Field this season. In five road starts, Marquez has a 2.55 ERA and 0.793 WHIP. Marquez has won both of his previous starts here at PNC Park, posting a 2.45 ERA. Even if he didn't have those career marks - or a strong resume on the road - this still shapes up as a strong fade on Pittsburgh. Mark my words that the Pirates are a team set to regress heavily, much in the same way I predicted Seattle would a month ago, or even Detroit more recently. The starting rotation is NOT in good shape and tonight's starter Chris Archer happens to be 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 10.66 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. By the way, Colorado only allows 3.9 rpg on the road, which is 6th best in all of MLB. 10* Colorado | |||||||
05-20-19 | A's v. Indians -173 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -173 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
7* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a lack of hitting and some injuries, the Indians have stayed viable in the American League and would actually be a Wild Card if the playoffs started today. Obviously, we're a longways away from October, but I don't think the Tribe should be that discouraged at all about their current position. As hot as Minnesota has been, it's only a 4.5 game deficit in the division. I still project Cleveland to win 90+ games this season. They just took care of business over the weekend, taking three of four from lowly Baltimore, and now have another ideal matchup on the docket. There's some revenge at play here too as the Indians dropped 2 of 3 out in Oakland earlier in the month. The A's come to Cleveland on a three-game win streak. It should have been four, but Sunday's game in Detroit was suspended due to rain. Before that, they had completely emasculated the Tigers, outscoring them 28-6 in the first three games. But Detroit is also really bad. Before that series, the A's dropped a pair of games to a Seattle team that has the worst record in baseball since April 27th. The three-game series w/ Cleveland was before that and note both Oakland victories came in the final at-bat. I like Carlos Carrasco starting for the Indians here as he has a 1.83 ERA and 0.763 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn't given up any runs in four of his previous six starts and has a 2.49 ERA and 0.831 WHIP pitching at home this year. The team has won each of his last three starts as he's working on a 12-inning scoreless streak. Carrasco has also pitched well in the past vs. Oakland, going 4-1 w/ a 2.89 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. The same can be said for Brett Anderson against Cleveland (0.82 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in 5 appearances), but Monday's starter for the A's is also 1-3 in his L5 starts and has allowed 4 ER in B2B outings. 7* Cleveland | |||||||
05-19-19 | Twins v. Mariners -101 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:10 ET): Surprise, surprise. I have been intensly critical of Seattle over the last month and feel I was "early" on the bandwagon pointing out that a massive decline was due to set in. The Mariners won 13 of their first 15 games, but since that time are just 9-24. They massively overachieved last year in getting to just 89 wins, so for me, a sub-.500 finish this year was all but assured. They're now well on their way to that, but I feel we can now grab them at a great "buy low" spot as yesterday may have been their nadir of the season. Look for the M's to avoid the four-game sweep at home. This series has been as one-sided as it gets w/ the Twins outscoring the Mariners 36-11. They've won every game by at least five runs and yesterday was a beatdown of epic proportions as the final score was 18-4. Minnesota homered six times in the game, the fifth time they've hit 5+ HR in a game this year, which is the first time a team has ever done that before June. Having homered in 13 straight games, the Twins are now tied for the MLB lead in home runs, ironically w/ Seattle. I'm 2-0 in this series by the way, having cashed the Over Thursday and the Under Friday. But as bad as things have gone the L3 days for Seattle, I think they're a great value today. Rarely do home teams get swept in a four-game series. They send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound this afternoon and he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.726 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing three solo home runs in his last time out. I still have my suspicions about Twins starter Kyle Gibson, despite a good start to the season, record-wise. Gibson may have a 6-2 TSR, but he has an ERA north of 4.00. 10* Seattle | |||||||
05-16-19 | A's -130 v. Tigers | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
8* Oakland (1:10 ET): As we reach the quarter pole of this MLB season, I've been hard at work identifying teams that I feel have either over or underperformed. For the basis of this decision, I lean heavily on a team's run differential, which I have always felt is a much better predictor of future outcomes than say a team's actual won-loss record. One team that I feel is set to really hit the skids is Detroit. Sure, things haven't been that rosy already w/ them coming into today's game at 18-23 overall. But considering the Tigers have been outscored by 67 runs so far (3rd worst in MLB), they should probably be even worse. Detroit has a difference of +5 when it comes to actual vs. expected win total. Being outscored by 67 runs puts them at the "expectancy" of a 13-win club. To put things in their proper perspective, Kansas City (the one team the Tigers are ahead of in the AL Central) has a 15-28 WL record. But they've only been outscored by 19 runs. The team right ahead of the Tigers (the White Sox) has a YTD run differential of -31 and that's w/ just a one game gap in the standings. Detroit has been blown out numerous times this season, many of them coming recently during a 2-6 slide. They've been outscored 57-19 during that time. The Tigers were just swept here at home by Houston to start the week. Similarly, Thursday's opponent (Oakland) also comes in on a three-game skid. But the A's got yday off after dropping two in Seattle. Another edge Oakland has coming into this game is they have absolutely owned the Tigers, going 12-1 against them the previous two seasons, including a perfect 7-0 in 2018. Starter Chris Bassitt is deserving of far better than a 1-3 TSR as he's allowed only seven runs in 24 2/3 IP. He's got a 0.973 WHIP. Detroit goes w/ Spencer Turnbull, who has a 4-0 TSR his L4 starts, but his ERA and WHIP are both higher than Bassitt's. 8* Oakland | |||||||
05-16-19 | Mets -135 v. Nationals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:05 ET): Few, if any, teams have disappointed me more this season than have the Nationals. They are a team I had earmarked for some serious improvement this year, despite the loss of Bryce Harper. But injuries have definitely taken their toll so far as the Nats are eight games under .500 despite beating the Mets 5-1 yday. This would be the rubber match between the NL East rivals as the Mets took the opener on Tuesday by score of 6-2. The oddsmakers have definitely taken a position on this game as have the sharp bettors and I'm w/ them. Take the Mets. It would certainly appear to be a rather large pitching mismatch (in favor of NY) here today. The Mets send Zack Wheeler to the bump for this series finale. While Wheeler's career numbers against Washington aren't great, his recent overall numbers are pretty impressive. Five of Wheeler's last six starts have been of the quality variety w/ the last two each seeing him go 7 innings while allowing just 2 ER. He also has 21 strikeouts in those two starts. Three times in the last four starts, he's struck out 10+ batters. It also helps that he'll be facing a lineup that is batting a collective .175 over the past 7 games. Another positive is that the Mets are 29-14 their L43 times off a loss. Injuries haven't been the only concern for Washington thus far. The backend of the starting rotation has been a disaster as Jeremy Hellickson and Anibal Sanchez have a combined 5-10 team start record. Sanchez goes today and he's 0-6 (2-6 TSR) having logged just 41 IP in his eight starts to go along w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP. Sanchez is seeking to avoid being the 2nd Nationals starter in team history (doesn't include the Expos) to start a year 0-7. He allowed 2 HRs in his last start and the Nats have lost his L5 turns overall. The Nats are also 0-6 the L6 times they've been off a game where they scored 5+ runs. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
05-13-19 | Indians -144 v. White Sox | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:10 ET): The Indians are above .500, but have a negative run differential after some inconsistent play of late. They dropped two of three in Oakland over the weekend, but both losses came in the final at-bat. A sweep was avoided Sunday w/ a 5-3 win. The series before that saw the Tribe split four games w/ these very same White Sox. They dropped the first two games before coming back to even things up, including an abbreviated series finale (game called after five innings). This time, I see Cleveland starting the series w/ a win behind Shane Bieber, who was successful against Chicago in his previous outing. Bieber last started for the Indians when they were off B2B losses to the White Sox. He went 6 1/3 innings and gave up just three runs, allowing his team to get the 5-3 win. It was Bieber's sixth quality start in seven tries overall (lone exception was vs. an NL team). and he is unbeaten on the road this year (1.89 ERA, 0.947 WHIP). He has walked two or fewer batters in five of his seven starts. Also note that Bieber threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball the last time he pitched here on the Southside of Chicago, back in September. This is a very good starter. The White Sox will go w/ Reynaldo Lopez, who has struggled. He started opposite Bieber last Wednesday as well and while he didn't pitch poorly, only two strikeouts in six innings isn't a great sign. Lopez has already had three starts this year where he failed to get past the fifth inning while allowing 6+ runs. He has a 6.38 ERA and 1.748 WHIP in his eight starts overall and the White Sox are giving up a ton of runs at home this year. They allow 6.8 per game to be exact, which is third most in all of baseball. Only Colorado (Coors Field) and Baltimore (hideous) have allowed more. Cleveland's offense gets on track here. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
05-13-19 | Astros -147 v. Tigers | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:10 ET): At first glance, my thought was the Tigers might be able to keep this a low-scoring affair due to Matt Boyd being on the hill. That may still be the case. Boyd has a 2.86 ERA and 0.934 WHIP after eight starts. But the bottom line is that Detroit also simply lacks the firepower to stay competitive w/ the mighty Astros. The Tigers come in averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is dead last among American League teams. The surging Astros, winners of 8 of their last 9, are now #3 in all of MLB in runs scored and are 1st overall in OPS. They've scored 10 or more runs in four of those last eight wins, including 26 total (15 yday) the L2 days. Now there is a good chance the Houston lineup is somewhat slowed down today by Boyd, who has delivered seven straight quality outings. Last time out, here at home, Boyd tossed six innings of three-hit ball and allowed just one run. But he's yet to face a lineup as potent as what the Astros send to the plate. In three career starts vs. Houston, Boyd has an ERA of 5.71. Plus, the Tigers have a bad bullpen whose numbers are actually worse at home than on the road. The Tigers are giving up 5.2 rpg here at Comerica Park. This is a team that now ranks second-to-last (Baltimore) in run differential in the American League. Detroit did manage to take 2 of 3 from 1st place Minnesota Saturday & Sunday (Saturday was a doubleheader). But they've still scored more than five runs in a game just one time since April 26th. Houston put 15 on the board yday alone, even w/ Jose Altuve out of the lineup. Leadoff man George Springer is on fire right now, including a 5 for 5 day at the plate yday. Monday's starter Brad Peacock tossed seven shutout innings his last time out (w/ 12 Ks) and he has a 2.38 ERA in five career appearances vs. Detroit. The Astros took five of six from the Tigers LY and this should be another successful series for them, starting today. 8* Houston | |||||||
05-11-19 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -158 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -158 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
8* Toronto (3:07 ET): The Blue Jays got a much neeeded win Friday, beating the White Sox 4-3. That snapped a five-game losing streak, although this offense still has some issues it needs to figure out. They'd been held to just one run total in three games by Minnesota and have scored just 18 runs in May (9 games). But off the win yday, they've got a great shot at having a big game at the plate Saturday as they'll face Ivan Nova, who has been struggling badly of late and all season. Nova has a 7.04 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in seven starts, including a 8.10 ERA and 2.040 WHIP his L3. The White Sox have given up the third most runs in the American League w/ only horrendous Baltimore and slumping Seattle having given up more. But Seattle has also played four more games. The 5.6 rpg allowed by Chicago is second most in all of MLB (Baltimore). That Toronto only needed four runs to win yday is a good sign. I look for Marcus Stroman to pitch well today for the Jays as his 2-6 TSR is very misleading as it comes in spite of a 2.96 ERA on the year. He has a 2.22 ERA at home. He'll be facing a White Sox lineup that has been held to three runs or fewer in seven of its last eight games. I already ran through the ugly numbers for Nova, which were actually even worse before he turned in a shockingly good outing vs. Cleveland on Monday. He allowed just one run (scattering eight hits) in 7 IP. That was actually the third time this season Nova allowed only one run in a start. But the previous two follow-ups have not been good. They've seen him allow 13 runs in a total of just 8 2/3 innings. Take away two starts vs. Cleveland and Nova's numbers look real dire. The White Sox are just 5-15 in day games as well. 8* Toronto | |||||||
05-11-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -142 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Time for a little redemption for the Cubbies, who got embarrassed in a 7-0 loss to Milwaukee on Friday afternoon. It was just their 6th loss at Wrigley all season and came on the heels of an easy sweep over the lowly Marlins. Not just that; the Cubs had won 10 of 11 going into yday. So perhaps they were due for an "off-game," but it should be pointed out that it was a 1-0 game heading into the 7th yday, which is when Milwaukee began to exploit the Cubs' bullpen. The Brew Crew have now won 7 straight themselves, so this is a matchup of hot teams, but I'm siding with the home team today. Yesterday's result pulled the Brewers into a first place tie w/ the Cubs atop the NL Central. The Cubs are still percentage points up as they've actually played four fewer games. But despite the "tie," I don't think there's any denying as to which team has played "better" thus far. The Cubs have a +50 run differential on the year, tied for tops in the Senior Circuiit, while Milwaukee is only +9. To put the Brewers' run differential into perspective, it's just the fourth best in their own division w/ both St. Louis and Cincinnati (who is only 17-22!) better. No team has been any stingier on the runs allowed side of the ledger than the Cubs, who going into yday were allowing just 2.8 rpg and a .213 opponents batting average here at Wrigley. Both numbers are MLB bests. We've got two undefeated pitchers on the mound Saturday, so something will have to give. Cole Hamels is 3-0 in his seven starts for the Cubs w/ a 3.38 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. For Milwaukee, Zach Davies is 4-0 in his seven starts w/ a 1.56 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. While there looks to be no obvious discernible advantage in this matchup, Davies does have a 2-8 TSR his L10 vs. teams with a winning record. Coming off a bad loss is a good time to play these Cubs, who are 7-1 off their previous eight defeats. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-11-19 | Tigers v. Twins -155 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (2:10 ET): I'm playing the 1st game of this day-night doubleheader. The Twins, yes the Twins, have the best record in all of MLB at 24-12. They have won four straight, including a 6-0 shutout of the Tigers last night. This club very much looks "for real" as they've outscored their opponents by 50 runs this season, right on par w/ the other division leaders in the A.L. (Rays, Astros). They should have little difficulty continuing to win in this series against the hapless Tigers, who are 2nd worst in the American League w/ a -48 run differential due to an offense that not only did next to nothing yday, but is last in the league in runs scored. Detroit has been outscored 19-0 in its last two games. Minnesota is near the top of the A.L. in runs scored, but what's also surprising is they've given up the second fewest runs (only to Tampa Bay). Friday saw Jake Odorizzi extend his scoreless innings streak to 20 by going seven innings and giving up just one hit. For Game 1 today, it's Michael Pineda, who has definitely been the "weak link" (6.09 ERA, 1.529 WHIP) of the starting rotation thus far. But a matchup w/ a Tigers lineup that has been shutout an AL-high five times, including B2B games, is an ideal matchup. The Twins staff - get this - has pitched three shutouts in the last four games and allowed just one run in the previous series (swept Toronto). The Twins' offense is also doing its job as they are 4th in MLB in HR's and well on their way to breaking the franchise record in that department. In Game 1, they'll face Spencer Turnbull, who has been a real nice surprise for the Detroit starting rotation. The Tigers are 3-0 in Turnbull's last three starts w/ him allowing just 2 ER in 18 IP. But, if I were him, I'd be worried about getting any support today. Detroit is averaging only 3.2 rpg on the road this season while visitors here at Target Field are averaging just 3.1 rpg. It won't take much to beat the Tigers here and the Twins are already 12-4 in day games. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
05-10-19 | Reds -156 v. Giants | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (10:15 ET): Last weekend saw these teams play four games in Cincinnati (series actually ended Monday). They split, each team winning twice, but it very easily could have been a sweep by the Reds. In their two losses, they blew big leads and saw the eventual game-winning runs scored in the final inning. One of them, they blew an eight-run advantage and lost 12-11 in 11 innings. The other, they blew a four-run 1st inning lead. The two victories, however, saw the Reds outscore the Giants 21-6. This weekend is a chance at redemption and I love Cincy in this spot. The Giants very nearly did it again yday as they erased a 7-0 deficit against the Rockies (on the road) and actually took the lead (8-7) going into the bottom half of the sixth. But it was not to be as this time they came out on the wrong end of a 12-11 decision. That was the fifth time the Giants have allowed 10 or more runs in the L10 games. I don't like tonight's starter very much either as Dereck Rodriguez has been pretty awful of late w/ a 9.22 ERA and 1.975 WHIP his L3 starts. The last one was against Cincinnati and he gave up 4 HR's and eight runs total in a 9-2 loss. The Reds look to have a sizable edge in starting pitching tonight as Luis Castillo goes for them. Castillo has a 1.97 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in his eight starts this season. His last one, which was against the Giants, was the first time all year he allowed more than 2 ER. I expect him to be better the second time around. Cincinnati won in shutout fashion yday in Oakland (3-0) and this is a much better team than the overall record (16-22) indicates as they've actually outscored opponents by 23 runs over the course of the season, the 5th best differential in the National League. The Giants have a -29 run differential despite having one less loss than the Reds! (Same number of wins). The Reds are the much better team here. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
05-10-19 | Padres v. Rockies -164 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
7* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies blew all of a seven-run lead Thursday afternoon, but still found a way to come back and beat the Giants 12-11. In my opinion, that sets them up well for tonight's opener w/ the Padres. Granted, giving up 25 runs in two games to the Giants wasn't a good sign. But the offense has also turned it around, scoring at least eight runs in five of the last seven games. They'll have German Marquez on the hill tonight and they are 6-2 in his starts so far. Colorado is 2-0 against San Diego in 2019, having easily taken a pair of games at Petco Park last month. Though like most pitchers he's struggled here at Coors Field, Marquez still has solid numbers in his eight starts this season. I already mentioned that six of them have resulted in Rockies' victories. Neither of the last two have been great, but I had him his last time out and that was an 8-7 win over Arizona where Marquez matched a season-high w/ nine strikeouts. Remember that last season saw Marquez set a team record w/ 230 K's. He has a 1.077 WHIP and has been durable, going 6+ innings in all but two starts. In two career home starts vs. San Diego, he's allowed a total of just three runs. Surprising is that the Rockies have a losing record at home so far (7-10). Equally as surprising is the Padres' winning road record (11-6). But I expect neither to last. The Padres just took two of three from the Mets, at home, but this series promises to be a lot more challenging. Starter Eric Lauer has been somewhat inconsistent and has only made it through a full six innings twice (never gone more than 6 IP in any start). Lauer's only previous start here at Coors Field was his big league debut (April of last year) and it didn't go well as he allowed seven runs in just three innings. With a 5.40 road ERA, he's up against it here against the surging Rockies lineup. 7* Colorado | |||||||
05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox -186 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
6* Boston (7:05 ET): I certainly don't need much "pushing" to fade a Seattle team that I believe will continue to regress severely over the final three-quarters of the season. But the oddsmakers are all but telling you that this is an ideal spot to fade. The Mariners have won just seven times in their last 25 games as the regression I expected has already begun to take hold. Simply put, this team was a complete fraud last year in winning 89 games. They were actually outscored by 34 runs, a scoring differential more indicative of a 77-win team. No team overperformed more (in terms of run differential) last season. So you can imagine my shock when they began 2019 at 13-2. The key for Seattle these last two years has been a ridiculously fortunate 17-1 record in games decided in extra innings. But that can only help them so much and over time that record will regress back to .500. The Mariners' offense started the year like gangbusters, but like the team has begun to fade. They scored only one run in yday's loss to the Yankees, which was the 6th time in the last 14 games they've been held to 1 or 0 runs. Another disadvantage they face coming into this game is that they had to play yesterday. Boston had Thursday off as they visited the White House (to celebrate LY's World Series win). The Red Sox are starting to look like the Red Sox again w/ wins in 13 of the last 19 games. They are back at .500 and poised to make it a three-team race (w/ the Rays & Yankees) in the AL East. I know Eduardo Rodriguez's overall numbers are not that impressive, but Friday's starter for Boston has pitched very well this season at Fenway Park where he has a 3-0 TSR and 0.98 WHIP. Seattle is just 3-7 this season vs. left-handed starters. They'll go w/ righty Erik Swanson tonight. Swanson has had two good starts (both vs. Cleveland), but the other two have not gone well. This series is going to go a lot differently than when the Red Sox dropped three of four to open the year in Seattle. The price is high, but I love the home team here. 6* Boston | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): I played the Over in last night's Dodgers game and (as projected) they went Over the number themselves by hanging nine runs on the board for a second consecutive game. In the analysis, I spoke of just how dominant Dodger Blue has been here at Chavez Ravine this season. They are outscoring their visitors by nearly a 2:1 margin, averaging 6.3 rpg themselves while allowing only 3.6. Last night's 9-4 win over the Braves made it three straight sweeps here at home for the Dodgers and 10 straight home victories overall. The last time they lost a home game was April 14th! Add another win to the pile tonight. As impressed as I am w/ the Dodgers so far this season, I'm equally as disappointed w/ the Nationals. They've lost four in a row overall and just got swept in Milwaukee. Maybe they are going to miss Bryce Harper after all as they've been held to three runs or fewer in 9 of the last 10 games. They've scored only seven runs total during the four-game losing streak. The Nats are now eight games under .500 overall and are dead last in baseball in net units at -14.3. The Dodgers also look to have a significant edge on the mound tonight as Rich Hill goes against Pat Corbin. The Dodgers have won both Hill starts, even though he's allowed 2 HR's in both. Still he has a better ERA and WHIP than Corbin, who has struggled some recently. Injuries have really decimated this Nationals lineup, resulting in them losing six consecutive series. This one doesn't figure to go any better for them. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
05-08-19 | Phillies v. Cardinals -150 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (1:10 ET): The Cardinals took a beating yday at the hands of the Phillies, losing 11-1. But this is a good spot for them to bounce back after that humiliation. Granted, things haven't been going too well for the Redbirds recently as they've dropped five of six and were swept over the weekend by the rival Cubs. But they also shut the Phillies out here on Monday, winning 6-0. The club remains 13-5 here at Busch Stadium and today's starter (Jack Flaherty) has been exceptional in his four home starts. I'm going w/ the home team to bounce back in a major way today! Not that the Cardinals did much at the plate, but it was really one big inning from the Phillies that did them in last night. It was a six-run second inning, which St. Louis manager Mike Shildt called his team's "worst inning of the season." It included a grand slam from Bryce Harper, who is still only hitting .226. Don't expect anything like that to happen today against Flaherty, who is 3-0 in home starts w/ a 1.87 ERA and 0.833 WHIP. The Phillies will always hold a special place in Flaherty's heart as he beat them LY for his very 1st big league victory. He had 13 strikeouts in a 5-1 win. Homefield advantage can often be overrated, but not when these teams are involved. They sport the two largest gaps between home and road win percentages in all of baseball (w/ St. Louis 1st). Last night marked just the third win for the Phillies in their last nine tries here at Busch Stadium. Wednesday's starter Jerad Eickhoff has pitched only one time on the road in 2019 and it didn't go well w/ him allowing four runs in six innings. Granted, that was at Coors Field in Colorado, but Eickhoff didn't fare much better in his only career start here at Busch. The Phils are just 8-11 off a win this season. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
05-07-19 | Mets -132 v. Padres | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (10:10 ET): I had the Under in last night's game, which was an easy call w/ a pitching matchup of deGrom vs. Paddack. Both starters delivered, especially Paddack, who had a career high 11 K's over 7 1/3 scoreless innings. The Mets were shutout, losing 4-0, and it was the sixth straight game scoring three runs or fewer. In those six games, they have scored just seven runs total, which is absolutely putrid. But the good news is they shouldn't need to put many on the board tonight as they have Noah Syndergaard starting. I'll go w/ the Mets to bounce back here. It's not like San Diego has a tremendous offense either. As I pointed out in yday's analysis, they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game at home. They got a dominant start from their best pitcher on Monday, but I wouldn't go expecting the same from Cal Quantrill on Tuesday, even though he gets to face the same Mets lineup. Quantrill is making just his second start of the season here. His first was OK, but far from overwhelming and the Padres lost the game 5-1. The Padres still have a losing record at home (9-10) and they are just 6-13 the L3 seasons when coming off a win via shutout. Syndergaard should be the difference in this one as the Mets aim to snap a four-game losing streak. It's hard to be any better than Syndergaard was his last time out as he went the distance in a CG shutout w/ 10K's and the Mets beat the Reds 1-0. In an added twist, Syndergaard provided the game's only run w/ a solo home run! Syndegaard had been struggling prior to that outing, but got to face a weak-hitting lineup as is the case tonight. I can't see the Padres beating both deGrom and Syndergaard in B2B days as top hitter Fernando Tatis Jr is still out of the lineup. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
05-05-19 | Astros -215 v. Angels | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
6* Houston (4:10 ET): As the money line suggests, this should be another easy win for the Astros, who beat the Angels yday by a score of 14-2. The reason for this only being a two-game series is that it is taking place down in Mexico. At least the Angels didn't draw Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, but they do have to face the former on Sunday. Verlander, not surprisingly, has very good number as his ERA is 2.45 and his WHIP is 0.864 in six starts. Lately, he's been even better than usual as he's given up exactly one run in four consecutive outings. I have Houston finishing at the top of the American League this year and they're well on their way to doing that. They enter Sunday sporting a 19-14 record and +40 run differential. Only the Rays and Cubs (NL) have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. Now the offense has largely been "feast or famine" the the L5 games w/ 25 runs scored in the two wins and just four scored in the three losses. The Astros got shutout in Verlander's last start, a hard luck 1-0 decision to the Twins. But I see them as more likely to "feast" today facing Matt Harvey. The Angels came into this series off a three-game sweep of Toronto, but they are just 4-10 outside of LA this season and getting this series down in Mexico does them no favors at all. Over the L3 seasons, the team has gone 5-14 after allowing 10 or more runs the previous game. Away from home, the offense is averaging just 3.3 runs per game. They figure to struggle against Verlander, who they've fared poorly against in the past. Verlander has a 3.01 ERA w/ two shutouts in 25 career appearances vs. the Halos. Mike Trout is hitting just .139 against him. Harvey has been a bit better of late, but still has a 6.54 ERA in six starts. Houston wins big again in Monterrey. 6* Houston | |||||||
05-05-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -127 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
10* Colorado (3:10 ET): Arizona continues to surprise as they've put 19 runs on the board in two games here at Coors Field and won both. Now 20-13 overall, the D'backs are one of four NL teams playing .600 ball w/ a YTD run differential of +30 or better. They go for the sweep of the Rockies Sunday afternoon and will have Zack Greinke on the bump, so the visitors are likely feeling pretty good about themselves right about now. But I wouldn't make the mistake of discounting Colorado in this spot, coming off a bad home loss. In fact, I think the moneyline speaks volumes here. German Marquez will toe the rubber for the home team in this one. He's been a little shaky at Coors Field so far, but still has a 2.93 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in his seven starts this season. Those are actually better overall numbers than what Greinke brings to the table! Marquez also has a 5-2 TSR. Though the Rockies only managed two runs on five hits yday, I wouldn't make the mistake of second-guessing this lineup. The previous three games had seen them score 31 runs on 34 hits. They do need to do a better job of limiting their opponents' scoring here at home and I think Marquez will get the job done today. Greinke started 2019 w/ a terrible effort against the Dodgers, but the team has won the last six times he's started. He's been especially dominant in the last four, all quality efforts, but this is Coors Field he's pitching at Sunday. Greinke only had to pitch once here LY and gave up multiple home runs. It's pretty common knowledge at this point that Greinke has always pitched better at home, no matter what jersey he's been wearing. The last three times he's pitched here in Denver, he's faced off w/ Marquez every time. Arizona has won 2 of the 3, but this time it's the Rockies' turn as they are going to be highly motivated here not to get swept by a division rival at home. 10* Colorado | |||||||
05-04-19 | Mariners v. Indians -188 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians would appear to have the Mariners' number this year as they're now a perfect 4-0 against them following last night's walkoff win. Seattle is in a terrible way right now having scored just eight runs during a five-game losing skid and five of those eight runs came in one game. Of course, I had been adamant that the Mariners were headed for a downfall following what I dubbed "an unsustainable start" (to the season). That downfall continues Saturday as they are big underdogs to Carlos Carrasco and the Indians. Coming into the season, Seattle was a team I'd earmarked for some serious regression. Last year's 89-win team was a total fraud as they were actually outscored by 34 runs, giving them a win expectancy of 77. No team had a larger gap between actual and expected wins in 2018. The key for them was not only a MLB-high 36 one-run victories, but going a ridiculous 14-1 in extra-inning games. That's luck, not skill. So you can imagine my shock when the Mariners raced out to a 13-2 start and homered in their first 25 games (MLB record). But, sure enough, they have started to regress. They're just 5-14 in the L19 games and have suffered three losses by 11+ runs in the last five games! The other two losses, including last night's, were by 1 run. So they are regressing in that department as well. Home runs have slowed WAY down w/ just five in the last nine games. Carrasco has a somewhat misleading ERA/WHIP as he's been very good at home. He's also gotten little in the way of run support w/ the Tribe scoring exactly one run in each of his L4 trips to the mound. He's only had one strong start on the road and it happened to come against Seattle, whom he shutout for seven innings (just three hits) w/ 12 K's. At home, Carrasco has a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The M's counter w/ Mike Leake, who was on the wrong end of a 15-1 decision his last time out. He gave up nine runs (five earned) in five innings. Leake's L2 starts have seen him allow 13 runs (in 11 IP) and 5 HR's. 6* Cleveland | |||||||
05-02-19 | Blue Jays v. Angels -149 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Toronto was definitely feeling pretty good about itself coming into this series as they'd just swept Oakland for a second time this season. But it's been a "step back" w/ consecutive losses to an Angels team that has won five out of its last six. This is the Halos' best stretch since a six-game win streak in early April that included a sweep of Milwaukee. Tonight, they go for just their second sweep of the season and I like their chances w/ Tyler Skaggs on the bump. Lay the price. Toronto has struggled this season at the plate. They are hitting just .219 in games against left-handed starters. Skaggs is a southpaw and brings in a 3.15 ERA after four previous starts. The only previous time Skaggs got to start at home was vs. Texas on 4.6. He allowed just one run and five hits in 6 1/3 IP. He was even stingier his last time out w/ five shutout innings of three-hit ball. Of course, when betting on or against the Angels, one must consider the prowess of perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout. So far, Trout has reached base safely in every game this season! The Blue Jays hope they have the "next Trout" on their hands w/ Vlad Guerrero Jr. He's now been in the big leagues for almost a week and while there's no doubt he is a future superstar, Guerrero has struggled in this series. He's hitless in six at bats and has struck out three times. Pitching tonight for Toronto will be Aaron Sanchez, who continues to deal w/ recurring blister and figernail issues. This oddity has really stunted his growth as a starter as he often can not make his regular turn in the rotation. He was pulled early from his last start after breaking a fingernail. Another issues has been control. Sanchez has issued 15 walks in his L4 starts against only 16 K's. Trout and the rest of the Angels lineup will take advantage of that tonight. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
04-30-19 | Astros -161 v. Twins | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:40 ET): Coming off the Sunday night game, the Astros got blanked Monday in Minnesota, losing 1-0. That was definitely surprising, but it was a game that certainly could have gone either way. Houston had more hits (5 to 3), but ultimately things were decided w/ one swing of the bat, that being Ehire Adrianza's third inning home run. Justin Verlander may have been outdueled by Jake Odorizzi, but the same won't happen here w/ Gerrit Cole, who will be opposed by the struggling Michael Pineda. Look for the road team to get back into the win column here. Looking at the overall numbers from his six starts, you might think that Cole has not been his usual dominant self this season. He's posted a 4.71 ERA and 1.129 WHIP. But that's misleading. He had one terrible outing, at Texas on 4/20, where he surrendered nine runs (eight earned). Other than that, he's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer every time out. Last Thursday, he did get outdueled by Cleveland's Trevor Bauer in a 2-1 loss. But Cole allowed only three hits in seven innings. The problem was that two of those three hits were home runs. Ten strikeouts is definitely what you like to see though and over his L3 starts, Cole has 29 K's. The Astros may have been shutout yday, but the good news is that they are 13-5 the L3 seasons when coming off a shutout loss. That includes a win back on April 5th over Oakland. The offense should wake up today against Pineda, who has a 7.80 ERA and 1.733 WHIP his L3 outings. The last two have seen him allow 10 runs in nine innings. In eight career starts vs. Houston, Pineda's ERA is 4.66. The Twins have won four in a row, but three of those were against a terrible Baltimore club. The win streak ends today as Cole gets "back on track" and the Astros aren't in as tough a situation (i.e. not coming off Sunday night game). 8* Houston | |||||||
04-29-19 | Reds v. Mets -155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have been outscored by 19 runs so far this season, which is the fourth worst run differential in the entire National League. But give them some credit, they have managed to go 14-13, including a 5-2 win Sunday over the Brewers. That kept them from being swept here at Citi Field and they're just 1.5 games back of the Phillies in the NL East. Normally, with a run differential like that, you'd find me looking to fade, but that's not the case here. Not even w/ the Reds having the opposite profile (i.e. losing record, but positive run differential). Cincinnati has had two really big wins this year. Back on April 9th, they beat Miami 14-0 and would go onto sweep that series. (Note: I had them in that 14-0 win). They also just beat St. Louis 12-1 on Friday. Take away those two games and the numbers get pretty dire, especially at the plate. This is one of baseball's worst offenses as they'll come into Monday ranked dead last in team batting average (.208) and 29th in on base percentage (.280). They were held to just two runs on Sunday (both coming in the top of the ninth) in a loss Sunday at St. Louis. Other than the two aforementioned games, there's only been one other time all season that the Reds have scored more than five runs in a game, which is crazy. They've been held to three or fewer in just over half their total games. So Monday's starter for the Mets, Zach Wheeler, shouldn't have much trouble shutting down this lineup. Wheeler has a 4.85 ERA, but he's pitched better recently w/ a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP his L3 starts (all three quality). Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings vs. Philadelphia and had 11 strikeouts (and no walks). Give him the edge over Reds starter Tanner Roark, who has a misleading 3.25 ERA seeing as his WHIP is 1.601. That means Roark has giving up more baserunners than you typically like to see and eventually that'll catch up w/ a starting pitcher. How about here? 10* NY Mets | |||||||
04-28-19 | Yankees -116 v. Giants | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (4:05 ET): The Yankees might be missing some key pieces from their lineup right now, but they've been able to piece enough together to easily beat the Giants in the first two games of this Interleage series. Now they go for the sweep Sunday and I'm not anticipating much trouble for the team wearing pinstripes. The outlook for San Francisco is obviously very bleak as they are going to be one of the worst teams in the National League. They just can't score as only two teams (Miami, Pittsburgh) have put fewer runs on the board. They are also 29th in team batting average and 30th (i.e. last) in OPS. Time to break out the brooms. Based on what we've seen so far from starter Domingo German, this appears to be a shockingly low price on the road team. After a slow start to the season (again, injuries), the Yanks have really turned it around, winning eight of the last nine ballgames. Granted, they're not exactly beating the best teams (KC, Angels, Giants), but you can only play who is on the schedule. Despite all of the injuries, NY is still 5th in all of MLB in runs scored, which is really impressive when you think about it. They've scored 13 so far in this series (two games) and that's w/ the pitcher having to come up to bat! Speaking of pitchers, German has been solid so far w/ a 1.90 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in four starts. Last time out, he went 6 2/3 innings and only allowed one unearned run. It was his third consecutive quality outing. The Giants lineup, also besieged by injuries, is obviously unfamiliar w/ German. Even if they were familiar, it's not as if this is a strong lineup - even when at full strength. Dereck Rodriguez has pitched pretty well for the Giants in four starts, but this is a total fade against his team, which continues to do little offensively. The Yankees have gone 28-14 against the National League the L3 seasons. 10* NY Yankees | |||||||
04-26-19 | Brewers v. Mets -181 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -181 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
04-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -119 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (12:15 ET): This play is very similar to Sunday's winner on the Padres in the sense that the Pirates, the home team in the series, is facing the prospect of a four-game sweep. Rarely do you see a home team get swept in a four-game series. Taking San Diego in that spot Sunday worked out for us, so I'll back the Bucs as well. It's not just the scenario though. One would have expected more from the Pirates coming into this series, given their (still) impressive pitching numbers. One of their better pitchers will be on the mound this afternoon. Arizona has now won 9 straight games here at PNC Park. That's pretty surprising. They've come in and outscored the Pirates 25-7 in the first three games of this series, including an 11-2 win last night. Ketel Marte homered twice, but the real key was three straight doubles (all w/ 2 outs) in the top of the 7th. This is the D'backs longest win streak in a park other than their own in franchise history. Coming into the year, I was a definite "seller" on this ballclub (as were many), thinking they'd surely regress due to an offseason that saw them say goodbye to more talent (Paul Goldschmidt) than they brought in. I still feel they are going to be a losing team here in 2019. The D'backs will have Zack Greinke on the bump here and he's gone 3-0 his L4 starts overall. But he still has a 5.74 ERA on the road, mostly due to a poor 1st start to the season. Pittsburgh counters w/ Jameson Taillon, who also had a less than stellar 2019 debut. But since then, he's been pretty much lights out. The Pirates have won the last two times he's pitched. In his last start, Taillon allowed just one run on four hits in five innings. That actually ended up being a "complete game" due to rain. So Taillon is also a little more "rested" than usual here. Each of those L2 starts also came on five days rest. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
04-23-19 | Mariners v. Padres -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): This is an annual Interleague rivalry, but something is different about it this year and that's both teams actually come in sporting winning records. When was the last time that happened? The Padres, who started 11-5, got back over .500 w/ a win on Sunday over Cincinnati. While that was going on, the Mariners were losing to the Angels. What's unique is that the two teams were in very different positions Sunday. The Padres were looking to avoid getting swept in a four-game series at home, and they did (I was on them!) while the Mariners were looking to finish off a four-game sweep on the road (which they failed to do). San Diego had lost six in a row before winning Sunday. But it also wasn't that long ago that Seattle had lost six in a row. The entirety of that losing streak came at home and I faded them a number of times during it. I am not a buyer on the Mariners' hot start. This is a team I earmarked for regression in 2019 as LY's 89-win campaign was a total mirage considering the M's were actually outscored by 34 runs. I don't think we should expect the current club's 11-2 record away from home (includes two games in Japan) to be maintained either. We have two rookie pitchers starting in Tuesday's opener. For Seattle, it will be Erik Swanson, who has just one start under his belt. In it, he allowed just one run and two hits in six innings (vs. Cleveland). Impressive, but not a large sample size to draw any real conclusions from. San Diego will go w/ Nick Margevicius, who has made four starts so far and the first three all saw him allow just 1 run (3 ER total allowed in 16 IP). He struggled his last time out (vs. Colorado) and while facing the power of this Mariners lineup (56 HR's in 25 games) is a little bit worrisome, don't be surprised if the Seattle offense struggles in this series (no DH). 8* San Diego | |||||||
04-22-19 | White Sox -125 v. Orioles | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (7:05 ET): Something will have to give when two pretty lousy teams meet Monday at Camden Yards. I see the White Sox having a pretty decided edge here as they get to go up against the struggling David Hess, who was tagged for six runs in his last outing, which lasted all of two innings. Plus, the Orioles are just 1-9 at home after getting swept by the Twins over the weekend. Chicago dropped 2 of 3 in Detroit, including a one-run decision on Sunday. But they benefit from the fact Saturday's game got rained out while Baltimore has had to play three games in the last two days. Hess has has lost his three starts, posting a 9.23 ERA and 1.657 WHIP. It was Tampa Bay that shelled him his last time out and a really troubling sign for the right-hander is that he's given up a total of 7 HR's his L3 starts. His teammates didn't do much better over the weekend, getting swept in a doubleheader on Saturday and then losing again on Sunday. They were outscored 26-15 in the three games. Since the start of last season, Baltimore is down almost 50 net units. They project to lose another 100 games this season. Betting against them at this price seems like a good idea. Chicago will turn to Manny Banuelos in this spot. He hasn't started at the big league level since 2015. He has worked four times in relief this season, the longest of those stints going 3 1/3 innings. His last 9+ innings of work, Banuelos has allowed just two runs on five hits. It was a tough loss yday for the White Sox as they couldn't score until the 8th inning, wasting a strong start from Reynaldo Lopez. But scoring shouldn't be an issue against Hess. The Orioles have lost 18 of Hess' last 22 starts and are 0-6 their L6 times facing a southpaw starter (Banuelos is a lefty). They also have lost 41 of their last 51 series openers. 10* Chi White Sox | |||||||
04-21-19 | Reds v. Padres -138 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
8* San Diego (4:10 ET): The Reds came into this series having not won a single road game all season. (Well, except for one in Mexico). Now, they've won three in row. That dramatic turnaround lends itself to a play on host San Diego today as the four-game sweep remains pretty rare these days when you're the home team. The Padres know this all too well as last Sunday they lost in Arizona after taking the first three games of that series. That begat a six-game losing streak for the team, the last five of which have all come here at home. The streak ends Sunday. San Diego hasn't had much offense during the losing streak, scoring just 13 runs. They've been held to two or fewer in five straight. The good news though is they many not need much offense today w/ Joey Lucchesi on the mound. Lucchesi has pitched very well in his three starts at Petco Park, posting a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP. Those numbers were even better before he ran into Colorado here on Monday. His first two starts saw him toss 10+ scoreless innings w/ 13 strikeouts. This is Lucchesi's second season in the bigs and he also pitched well here at home in his rookie campaign. All told, he has 105 strikeouts in 96 1/3 IP at Petco. Cincinnati's Tyler Mahle comes in on a similar trajectory as Lucchesi: two strong starts followed by a rough one. Last Tuesday, Mahle allowed 4 runs and 11 hits against the Dodgers. The Reds also haven't done much scoring for Mahle this year, totaling just three runs in his three starts! Remember that the Reds had been swept in three of their first six series. Their offense remains as bad as any in all of MLB w/ a .195 team batting average for the year. That's dead last and it drops to .179 on the road. The Padres should avoid the sweep here. 8* San Diego | |||||||
04-21-19 | Mets -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (2:15 ET): The Mets were forced to call up Chris Flexen for yesterday's game in St. Louis to replace the injured Jacob deGrom. That went about as well as expected w/ Flexen allowing six runs in his first big league start since last July. The Mets lost 10-2 and just to rub salt into the wounds, Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas not only dominated them from the mound (allowed just four hits in 8 IP), but also at the plate w/ a pair of hits of his own. But the Mets are in luck today as they'll have Noah Syndergaard starting. I look for them to bounce back. The Mets are now 11-9, but have been outscored by 17 runs. That's not a great sign for the future, but Syndergaard makes the present appear strong. Now it's hardly been a dominant start to the year for Syndergaard. In fact, he has a 5.62 ERA after four starts. He's allowed four runs or more three times. But the Mets are 3-1 when Syndergaard takes the mound. He also has a 3.08 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis. With the deGrom injury, the club is now counting on Syndergaard to lead the rotation for the time being. I'm betting on him stepping up big in this spot. St. Louis will go w/ Dakota Hudson, a converted reliever that was shelled his last time out. Hudson allowed six runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings vs. Milwaukee, a 10-7 loss for the team. Hudson has yet to go a full five innings in any start this season and now has a 6.39 ERA and 2.368 WHIP. Chances of him outdueling Syndergaard here seem small. Making matters tougher is that the Cards are 0-4 the last 4 times they've been coming off a game where they scored 5+ runs. The Mets are 21-8 the L29 times Syndergaard has started and they scored two runs or fewer the previous day. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
04-18-19 | Dodgers -118 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): These teams have similar records, but delving into the box scores reveals that the Dodgers have played significantly better than have the Brew Crew. While the 12-8 Dodgers happen to have a NL-best +29 run differential, Milwaukee (12-7) has actually been outscored on the year (by two runs). These clubs met not long ago, in LA, and going into the series finale the Dodgers were on a six-game losing skid. They haven't lost since, having beaten Milwaukee 7-1 on Sunday, then sweeping the Reds. It's time to show "who's boss" in the Senior Circuit. Thursday's starter for the Dodgers is Julio Urias. He also started the opener of the last series vs. Milwaukee. He lost the game, giving up five runs in five innings, to stay winless on the season. That made it B2B suspect starts for Urias after he didn't last long in Colorado either. He did open the year w/ a strong effort though; five shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Giants (7-0 KW rate), so he's certainly capable of pitching well. Something else to consider here is the Dodgers' offense. They lead the National League in runs scored, batting average and OPS. That's all trouble for Brewers' starter Zach Davies, though he admittedly tamed the Dodgers bats when he faced them five days ago. He allowed just one run in seven innings, scattering eight hits. The Brewers are now 3-0 in Davies' starts this season. That was one of only two games so far that LA was held to 1 or 0 runs. So while it's a "feather in the cap" of Davies, I seriously doubt he can turn the same trick twice. Also, the Brewers' top hitter Christian Yelich was just 2 for 12 in the last series vs. LA. The Dodgers are the better team here and I expect them to show that tonight (and the rest of the weekend for that matter). 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
04-17-19 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Arizona took the series opener 9-6, but look for the Braves to bounce back at home. As "advertised," they look to have a significant edge in the starting pitching department tonight. Kevin Gausman has a 2.84 ERA and 0.868 WHIP after two starts while Arizona's Zack Godley has been battered around in three starts, leaving him w/ a 7.41 ERA and 1.471. Godley's lone road start to date was a complete disaster w/ him allowing eight runs at Chavez Ravine. He's also allowed multiple HR's in two of his three outings. I like Atlanta in this spot quite a bit. The Braves had a 5-2 lead last night going into the 7th inning. But the bullpen gave it away. First, it was allowing four runs in the 7th. The offense was able to tie it back up in the bottom half of the inning, but then the D'backs got a HR from Christian Walker to lead off the ninth and that was all she wrote. They even tacked on a couple more runs for good measure. The Braves' bullpen performance highlights the need for Gausman to "step up" and fortunately he should be able to do just that. He has a 6-1 TSR his last seven starts at home dating back to last season. As bad as Atlanta's bullpen has been this season, Arizona's has actually been worse w/ a 6.03 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. So, even with what unfolded yday, I'm not concerned w/ the late innings. Especially considering that I expect the Braves again to have the lead early here. Godley has pitched a lot on the road the L2 seasons and has won plenty of games, but his career ERA on the road (4.54) leaves a lot to be desired. As I already mentioned, he was knocked around in LA earlier this year. Since the start of last season, he has an ERA approaching 6.00 away from home. In three career starts vs. the Braves, his ERA is 7.40. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
04-16-19 | Astros -153 v. A's | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:07 ET): The Astros are the hottest team in baseball right now as they've won nine straight games. I took them in all three wins they had over the weekend in Seattle, citing numerous factors, mainly on the Seattle side as that was a team due to regress (following an extraordinary start). Another team I have earmarked for regression in the AL West this season is Oakland. They stunned everyone by making the playoffs last year (as a Wild Card), but they did so by going a MLB-best 31-14 in one-run games. They weren't as fraudulent as Seattle was LY, but the A's won't be winning 90+ games again, that's for sure. Keep riding Houston. It was a strong statement made by the Astros over the weekend as they took all three games up in Seattle. None of the wins came easy, but the bottom line is this team hasn't lost a game since April 3rd in Texas. The win streak began w/ a three-game sweep of these A's, at home. (In between sweeping the division rivals, they also swept the Yankees). Collin McHugh will look to keep things going Tuesday and he figures to pitch well in this spot, considering he held the A's to one run on three hits (6 IP) when he faced them earlier in the month. He followed that up by holding the Yankees to two runs on four hits, also over six innings. McHugh has a 2.65 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his three starts this season. He is 9-1 w/ a 2.78 ERA lifetime vs. Oakland. Another key is McHugh will be backed by what has been the AL's best bullpen so far (2.70 ERA). Oakland's bullpen (4.39 ERA) is clearly inferior to that of the Astros and starter Marco Estrada doesn't match up well w/ McHugh either. Estrada hasn't pitched poorly per se, but his team start record (TSR) is 0-4 this year. He did not face Houston in the previous series, but he did just allow six runs (in 4 IP) in an ugly loss to Baltimore last Monday. He's already given up five HR's this season and has only 10 K's in just over 20 IP. Not sure having seven days off will matter for Estrada as McHugh is also pitching on five days rest and he's got a 14-3 TSR in that situation. The Astros have taken 40 of the last 58 games vs. Oakland. 8* Houston | |||||||
04-14-19 | Astros -162 v. Mariners | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
04-14-19 | Phillies -167 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
6* Philadelphia (1:10 ET): The Phillies were embarrassed Saturday as they fell behind Miami 10-0 and didn't score until the 9th inning. I expect them to bounce back though on Sunday as the Marlins figure to be the proverbial "punching bag" in the NL East this season. The other four teams in the division, Philadelphia included, all have their eyes on the postseason. Miami projects to be a 100-loss team. The win yday was just the 4th of the year for the Fish, who have won B2B games only one time and are 2-9 here in April. Their starter for Sunday doesn't exactly inspire confidence. The Phils go w/ Vince Velasquez today. He's started only one game so far, but aside from allowing a HR, he looked very good. He allowed just four hits in five innings of work and didn't walk anybody. The team desperately needs a strong effort out of Velasquez here as pitching staff has given up 10+ runs in three of its last four games. But two of those were against Washington. I look for this to be along the lines of Friday's 9-1 victory as Velasquez has a 3.18 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Miami. Before yday, the Marlins had scored a grand total of just two runs in its last four games. Yesterday was a season-high in runs and hits (18), but they still average only 3.0 rpg for the year. There simply isn't much good to report with Jose Urena, who will be getting the baseball for a 4th time here in 2019. Miami's starter has produced some ugly numbers thus far (8.56 ERA, 2.121 WHIP) and even worse is the fact he has NEVER won a decision in March or April. Talk about a slow starter; Urena is 0-7 in 18 appearances (9 starts) in March or April w/ a 5.97 ERA. He also has a 4.92 ERA in 14 appearances (10 starts) against Philadelphia. The Phillies are still averaging 5.8 rpg this year and they're 3-1 off a loss. It seems like a smart bet to expect them to bounce back. 6* Philadelphia | |||||||
04-13-19 | Astros -185 v. Mariners | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
6* Houston (9:10 ET): I loved the Astros last night and while it was "dicey" early on, they ended up pulling out a 10-6 victory thanks to TWO grand slams. I'll come right back with them again for many of the same reasons I stipulated in yday's analysis. Seattle's 13-2 start was downright shocking to me, considering I had them earmarked for some serious regression in 2019. Last year's 89-73 WL record was a total fraud as the team was outscored by 34 runs, giving them an "expected" win total of 77. No team in all of MLB had a bigger gap between actual and expected wins LY, positive or negative. Houston is no stranger to winning as they've now come out ahead in seven straight games. They'll send Justin Verlander to the bump Saturday. Verlander has had two quality starts out of three, beating the Rays and Yankees. I really like what manager A.J. Hinch did yesterday, using two starters. Right now, Hinch is going with just a four-man rotation due to a favorable upcoming schedule that has more off days than normal. This will allow for the Astros to have their best pitchers on the mound more often. They are 19-4 in Verlander's last 23 road starts. Seattle was able to get to 89 wins LY by going 14-1 in extra inning games and 36-21 in games decided by one run. They've already won five one-run games this season and are 2-0 in extra innings. But again, I feel their luck is about to run out. There's just no way they can maintain the offensive pace they set to start the season. Starters are still 9-0 this season, but Felix Hernandez isn't the same old "King Felix" anymore. He left his last start after just one inning due to flu-like symptoms and had already given up two runs on three hits. Hernandez has a 1.58 WHIP so far. Houston is the far better team here and the pricing speaks volumes. 6* Houston | |||||||
04-12-19 | Astros -140 v. Mariners | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
9* Houston (10:10 ET): I've been waiting for a matchup like this where I could begin to fade Seattle, who is off to a shocking 13-2 start. I say "shocking" because they are one of the teams I had earmarked for regression in 2019. Last year's 89-73 WL record was a total fraud as the team was outscored by 34 runs, giving them an "expected" win total of 77. No team in all of MLB had a bigger gap between actual and expected wins LY, positive or negative. The Mariners were able to get to that record by going an unfathomable 14-1 in extra inning games, not to mention 36-21 in games decided by one run. Starting today though, their "luck" is about to run out. Like Seattle, Houston has won six straight coming into this series. The Astros haven't been quite as dominant as the Mariners so far, who have scored the most runs in all of baseball and thus have a +42 run differential through 15 games. But again, Seattle has still been fortunate to win five one-run games (tied for most) and they are one of three teams to be 2-0 in extra inning games. So that's now a 41-22 mark in one-run games since the start of last season & 16-1 mark in extra innings! Ridiculous! Now, their rally yday (won 7-6 in 10 innings) brought me good fortune as I had the Over against KC. But now it's time to fade. Houston just completed a perfect 6-0 homestand, sweeping the A's and Yankees, two playoff teams from a year ago. Unlike Seattle, they had Thursday off, which is a nice advantage coming into this weekend series. The Astros will send out Wade Miley, a former Mariner, who has a 2.89 ERA against his former team. Miley faces an offense that's on a record-setting pace, but at the same time it has to eventually slow down. The Mariners starting rotation is a perfect 9-0 so far, including Wade LeBlanc's 2-0. But LeBlanc hasn't exactly pitched "well" w/ a 4.77 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in those starts. He has a 5.65 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. the Astros. 9* Houston | |||||||
04-11-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -183 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
6* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox are off to a shockingly poor 3-9 start, not even resembling the club that completely dominated MLB is 2018. On their way to a fourth World Series crown this century, the Red Sox won 108 regular season games and finished up a stunning 42.5 units overall. Now, they're in the hole a league worst -11.1 units after losing to Toronto (7-5) on Tuesday. But I expect them to bounce back tonight at Fenway Park as this team is too talented to keep losing this many games. Aside from the seven runs they scored on Tuesday, the Blue Jays have not exactly been hitting the cover off the ball to start the season. Tuesday's game did mark a new season-high in runs scored for any game. In 8 of 12 games, they've been held to three runs or fewer. Collectively, they are batting a putrid .193. While 3-0 in starts made by Matt Shoemaker, they're 1-8 w/ any other starter on the mound. Tonight, it'll be Aaron Sanchez getting the baseball. While he has a 1.64 ERA and 1.182 WHIP after two starts, Sanchez has a 4.06 ERA in 19 career games vs. Boston. The Red Sox offense is performing nowhere near LY's level, having been held to 1 run or less in three games and shutout twice. But lack of scoring is a secondary concern to the number of runs they're giving up right now. Only Baltimore has allowed more runs so far this season. Nathan Eovaldi will try to put a halt to that tonight as he looks to improve his team start record to 3-0 this year. Eovaldi has faced Toronto four times in his career and no Blue Jays hitter has more than five hits against him. Dustin Pedroia is now back in the Boston lineup, which should help the offense. Furthermore, Boston is 27-10 its last 37 games vs. Toronto, including 10-2 the L12 at Fenway. 6* Boston | |||||||
04-10-19 | Brewers -128 v. Angels | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -128 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
04-09-19 | Marlins v. Reds -180 | Top | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
7* Cincinnati (6:40 ET): Really like the Reds today. Yes, what was supposed to be a breakout season for them has started poorly. They have lost eight in a row since winning on Opening Day. There are multiple reasons for this, but a key one seems to be "bad luck." Only one time have the Reds lost a game by more than two runs this year. Half of their losses have come by exactly 1 run. I believe this series is where they get back on track as they'll host the lowly Marlins for three games. Miami was projected to be the worst team in the NL this year and I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from that projection ringing true. The Reds have already been shut out four times this year, three of those by Pittsburgh. But getting to face the struggling Jose Urena may be the cure for what ails this line. In two starts, Urena has a 9.34 ERA and 2.076 WHIP. Both starts were at home and saw him allow a total of 11 runs (2 unearned) in just 8 2/3 IP. He's been knocked around for 16 hits. Not surprisingly, the Marlins lost both games. Despite the home team's offensive struggles here, Great American Ballpark is known to favor the hitters, so I wouldn't expect a strong showing for Urena here. Pitching has not been a problem for Cincinnati, especially when Luis Castillo is on the bump. While he's yet to record a victory, he owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in his two starts. He was the starter on Opening Day, the lone game the Reds have won this year. Castillo was then a hard luck loser here at home against Milwaukee last Wednesday as he allowed just one run in 7 IP (1-0 final). He's due to get a win and a Marlins team that is just 3-7 is the right opponent for that to happen. Miami is only hitting .197 on the road. 7* Cincinnati | |||||||
04-07-19 | A's v. Astros -170 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
10* Houston (2:10 ET): The Astros came into this series at just 2-5 on the year while Oakland had won five of six, including an impressive series vs. the Red Sox (took 3 of 4 games). But it's been Houston flexing its muscles this weekend, taking the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 6-0. It's important to note that the 'Stros hadn't played a home game before this weekend while the A's had gotten hot at home and hadn't played on the road since opening the year with two games in Japan. I see Houston finishing off the three-game sweep here as starter Brad Peacock was dominant his first time out. Peacock threw 6 2/3 innings last Monday and allowed just one run on two hits. Houston won the game 2-1 in Arlington. Despite getting off to the fast start, Oakland's lineup has not been scoring a ton. After being shutout yday, that's four of the last five games they've failed to score more than three runs. There have only been three games so far where they've score more than four runs and one was the season opener. So Peacock should be in good shape here. Note Houston pitching has allowed more than four runs only one time this year. The A's will go w/ Michael Fiers, who is off B2B dominant starts at home. He's thrown 12 scoreless innings while allowing just six hits. But to say Fiers has been "overpowering" during this time would be a misnomer. In fact, he has only five strikeouts against three walks. It should also be pointed out that Fiers struggled when he pitched over in Japan against Seattle, allowing five runs in three innings. The homefield edge has definitely proven to be significant for Houston in this series and I look for them to improve to 40-18 the L58 head to head matchups vs. Oakland. 10* Houston | |||||||
04-06-19 | Blue Jays v. Indians -174 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
7* Cleveland (4:10 ET): We're looking to make it 3 for 3 in this series w/ the Indians. Thursday, it was Trevor Bauer taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning in what ended up being a 4-1. Friday was a 3-2 win, in walk-off fashion, with Carlos Santana delivering the game-winning HR. While Cleveland's offense has been fairly anemic to this point, they did hit two HR's yday, doubling their previous total from the first six games. As I've detailed each of the last two days, Toronto is - in many ways - the perfect opponent for Cleveland right now as they have been every bit as anemic at the plate to start the year. Carlos Carrasco was abysmal in his first start, giving up six runs and 10 hits in just 4 1/3 innings. The Indians lost that game 9-3 to Minnesota, but starting pitching has been outstanding so far in this series w/ Bauer and Shane Bieber limiting the Jays to three hits total in the two games w/ 17 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. Carrasco should bounce back here against a Blue Jays lineup that is hitting a collective .190 so far this season, including 3 for 30 in the 1st innings w/ 12 strikeouts. Yesterday marked the sixth time they've been held to three runs or fewer in eight games. There have been four games where they entered the sixth w/ no hits! So, like I said earlier, Carrasco should bounce back here. Toronto has not been a good road team the last several seasons, going 67-97 overall, including 2-6 here at Progressive Field. Saturday starter Thomas Pannone doesn't seem likely to reverse that trend as he's only in the rotation due to a demotion (Sean Reid-Foley). Pannone had been working out of the bullpen and had one shaky and one effective appearance. He may not go long and that's a problem considering his departure weakens an already suspect Blue Jays bullpen that had not been carrying its weight compared to the starting rotation. The Indians have cleaned up in day games the L3 seasons, going 77-46. 7* Cleveland | |||||||
04-06-19 | Rangers v. Angels -138 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (4:05 ET): The Halos snapped a five-game losing skid last night, beating Texas 3-1. Mike Trout hit a pair of homers to lead his team to victory and now for the first time all year they'll try and win two straight. I like their chances. While the offense simply hasn't been "there" for the Angels so far, they should break out today against Rangers starter Drew Smyly, who allowed six baserunners and a homer in just three innings Monday. That was his first start since the end of the 2016 season and it required 58 pitches to get through the first two innings. It's a little surprising that Texas "only" lost that game, 2-1. Both Saturday starters would seem to be question marks heading into the game. The Angels' Tyler Skaggs only lasted 4 2/3 innings in his first start of '19. There are concerns of "forearm fatigue" w/ Skaggs, though he looked good early against Oakland on Sunday, retiring the first eight batters he saw in order. But after that, things got a little more dicey as he needed 33 pitches to get through the third inning and was pulled after just 86 pitches total. Like Smyly, Skaggs allowed a HR and his team lost the game 2-1. But I thought Skaggs looked the better of the two and he has the advantage of having dominated Texas twice last season. In two starts vs. the Rangers last year, Skaggs went 2-0 w/ a 0.82 ERA. He had 13 strikeouts in 11 IP and tossed six shutout innings when he faced them here at home. Obviously, he's going to need some run support, but against Smyly, Trout and the Angels lineup should deliver. The Rangers were not projected to do well this season, so a 5-2 start should be taken w/ the proverbial "grain of salt." The Angels have taken 14 of the last 21 head to head meetings and 6-1 the last seven times they've played host. Texas did come in and win the first game on Thursday, but it's difficult for me to see them winning the series. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
04-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Indians -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This package has a National League matchup, an Interleague matchup and we conclude w/ an American League matchup. I took the Indians yday in what looked like a real "buy low" scenario w/ a bonafide Cy Young contender on the mound. Boy, did Trevor Bauer come through as he tossed seven no-hit innings against Toronto, leading the Tribe to a 4-1 victory. The home team should win again Friday as their offense has to eventually come around. Even if it doesn't, the Blue Jays are only hitting .190 themselves, so a few runs is all Cleveland starter Shane (don't call me Justin) Bieber should need here. This will be Bieber's first start of the season, but he did make a brief relief appearance on Sunday vs. Minnesota. A case could be made that Bieber would have been the Opening Day starter for any other team in the AL Central. Last year was his rookie season and he went 11-5 overall, including a win at Toronto. As touched on already, the Blue Jays are not hitting much so far in 2019. They're averaging just 3.0 rpg and yday was the third time they were held to 1 or less. Incredibly, last night was the fourth time this season they entered the sixth inning w/o any hits! Toronto, like Cleveland, seems to have some strong starting pitching on hand. Only once in eight games has the starter given up more than 2 ER. That includes a nice big league debut from tonight's starter Trent Thornton, who threw five shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. Detroit on Sunday. Thornton has an unusual delivery and was held to just 75 pitches in that first start. Working on a pitch count is beneficial for his future, but the team may suffer in the interim if the bullpen can't produce. Honestly, the Blue Jays' bullpen may not even matter given how bad the offense has been. The L3 seasons have seen Toronto go just 67-96 in the U.S, including 2-5 at Progressive Field. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
04-05-19 | Twins v. Phillies -147 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): I had my doubts that the Phillies could live up to lofty expectations that were set after bringing in Bryce Harper late in the Spring. But so far, so good as they have started the season 4-1 and outscored opponents by 17 runs. The only loss suffered came two days ago, to Harper's former team (the Nationals), by a single run (9-8). A wild, back & forth game saw the Phils take an 8-6 lead into the bottom of the eighth, only for some sloppy play to cost them the game. But, at home, I like them to bounce back against a Minnesota club that will obviously be at a disadvantage playing in a NL park (no DH). The Twins are also 4-1 w/ their only loss coming by one run. They have won three in a row, though the last two games were played against the lowly Royals. In a weak AL Central, Minnesota is right to believe they have a chance to challenge Cleveland for division supremacy, but (as always) pitching remains a question mark. Jake Odorizzi gets the baseball here and he did look good in his first start, giving up only a solo HR in six strong innings vs. the Indians last Saturday. He also finished w/ 11 strikeouts, tying a career-high. But I don't expect him to be as effective here. Even w/ the pitcher coming up to bat, the Phillies are a stronger offensive team than the Indians as they are averaging 7.8 runs per game. Odorizzi, like most American League pitchers, is also a massive liability at the plate. Philly will counter w/ Nick Pivetta, who was admittedly not that effective against Atlanta on Saturday. But his team still got the win, 8-4. The Phillies' bullpen seems to be a question mark right now, but I imagine that and the fielding woes will work themselves out. The Phillies have won all three home games this season and the Twins were not good on the road last year, posting a 29-52 record. 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
04-05-19 | Padres v. Cardinals -162 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -162 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (4:15 ET): Today is a make up game for yday's rainout. It's the Cardinals' home opener and I believe itll be worth the wait for Redbirds' fans as I expect their team to get the job done Friday afternoon. No game was originally scheduled for today (in anticipation of Thursday possibly raining out), so it's the same pitching matchup that was set for yday. St. Louis had delivered B2B come from behind wins (both against Pittsburgh) prior to this series while San Diego is off to a better than usual 4-3 start, though all seven games were played at Petco Park. Starting here for the Cardinals will be Jack Flaherty, who finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting last year. His first start of '19 did not go particularly well as he gave up four runs on seven hits in just 4 1/3 IP. But two prior starts against San Diego have gone well w/ him allowing just two runs on six hits across 11 1/3 IP. The Padres hit just .154 off him and lost both games. I expect Flaherty to bounce back from the subpar 1st outing of the season as he posted a 2.93 ERA and 1.035 WHIP at home last season. Helping him will be the bat of Paul Goldschmidt, who has already homered four times in his first six games wearing a St. Louis uniform. At the plate, Goldschmidt and the rest of the Cards will be getting their 1st look at Padres' rookie Nick Margevicius, who had an impressive big league debut last week w/ five shutout innings before giving up a run in the sixth. He had 5 K's and zero walks. Unfortunately for Margevicius, the Padres would go on to lose that game, 3-2 to the Giants. Despite now fielding an allegedly better lineup than years' past, San Diego has yet to score more than five runs in a game this season and has been held to three or fewer four times. I'm not yet sold enough on Margevicius to believe he can overcome a lack of run support. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
04-04-19 | Blue Jays v. Indians -173 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (6:10 ET): Despite a less than inspiring off-season, the Indians came into the year once again favored to win the (weak) AL Central. They seemingly own a very significant edge in starting pitching over the rest of their division rivals, but so far that's been of little consequence due to an anemic offense that's w/o both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. The Tribe have scored of a total of 13 runs in five games so far and are just 2-3 overall after dropping a game to the White Sox yday by a score of 8-3. Outside of Monday's 5-3 win in the home opener, this team has not scored more than three runs in any other game. But fortunately for today, they do have (perhaps) their best pitcher on the mound. That would be Trevor Bauer, who many feel is set to supplant Corey Kluber as the ace of this rotation. Bauer was as good as advertised in his first start of '19 where he held Minnesota to just one run on one hit over seven strong innings. The Indians actually won that game, 2-1. You have to remember that Bauer was dominant before getting hurt last season as he posted a 2.31 ERA (third lowest) and 1.103 WHIP. His career numbers against today's opponent are not great, but he's a much better pitcher today compared to the past. Toronto was able to avoid what would have been an embarrassing sweep (at home, no less) by beating Baltimore yday 5-3. Their own starting pitching has been pretty great this year, at one point posting 24 straight scoreless innings. Five of those came from Thursday's starter Marco Estrada, who held Detroit to just three hits in the third game of the season. But Bauer is the better pitcher here and Estrada's ERA in three career starts vs. Cleveland is 5.06. The Jays are only batting .202 in the early going themselves. This is a good matchup for the Indians. 6* Cleveland | |||||||
04-03-19 | Red Sox -137 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Boston (10:07 ET): It's difficult to feel bad for a team like the Red Sox, who had virtually everything go their way last year en route to a fourth World Series title in the L15 years. They won 108 games, making an astounding 42.5 units for the season. So the rest of the league certainly isn't "crying" over the fact they've started 1-5 in 2019. But after giving up 41 runs in the first five games, they allowed just one yesterday and still lost (shutout for the 2nd straight day here in Oakland). I think it's time for the World Series Champs to win one tonight. Since dropping two games to the Mariners over in Japan to start the year, Oakland's pitching has been lights out. Starters have allowed just one run in the last 36 innings of work and Boston has yet to be able to score a single run in this series. Marco Estrada will start for a third time tonight and while he's yet to win a decision, he has a 2.45 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He threw six shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Angels last Friday. But don't expect Estrada to find that kind of success here. He has a 4.68 ERA in 17 career outings against the Red Sox and is 4-8. He'll face a motivated Boston lineup that didn't lose four in a row at any point in 2018. Now they've done it in the first six games of 2019. For the Red Sox to get the win here, they'll need a better effort from starter Nathan Eovaldi than the one they got Friday. Granted, that was also the only game Boston has won all year. But Eovaldi allowed three HR's and six runs total. This is a pitcher that was very effective last year though, so expect a bounce back performance. Over his L7 starts of '18, Eovaldi posted a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Boston is too good and too talented to continue losing. Oakland is a team I had regressing this year and I think we'll see a major reversal of fortunes tonight. 10* Boston | |||||||
04-03-19 | Rockies v. Rays -130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays won yday, 4-0, and now are 5-1 on the young season. They've won five straight since an Opening Day loss to the Astros, where I played against them. Now we circle back and things are obviously looking "up." Not only are the Rays off to a hot start, but their main competition in the AL East - the Red Sox & Yankees - are both struggling. Since it's very likely both of those teams will eventually turn things around, it would be a good idea for Tampa Bay to keep racking up the early season wins. I think they stay hot Wednesday afternoon and win again. Colorado is trending in a different direction right now w/ four straight losses. They come into 2019 still looking for the franchise's first ever NL West pennant. Even the Rays, who came into existence five years after the Rockies, have won the division at least once. But a history lesson isn't what the Rockies need right now. Rather, it's some offense. During the four game slide, they've been shutout twice and scored only four runs total. Tropicana Field doesn't seem like a likely place for them to turn things around, however. No team allowed fewer runs per game at home last year than the Rays and in six games this year, they've allowed a total of just TEN runs! Even w/ the DH, I expect the Rockies' struggles at the plate to continue here. Starting here for the Rays will be Charlie Morton. An All-Star LY w/ Houston, Morton went 15-3 in 2018. He helped his new team pick up its 1st win of this season, ironically against the Astros, with a strong effort where he allowed just two runs and three hits (w/ 8 K's) in five innings. Coming off a shutout win, the Rays have gone 16-6 the L3 seasons. Colorado has scored just one run here the L2 days. German Marquez gets the start for them today, but even though he pitched well vs. Miami last week, it won't be enough here. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
04-01-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -162 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
7* Toronto (7:07 ET): All things considered, it was an incredible impressive weekend for the Orioles as they took two of three from the Yankees. Both wins came as ML dogs of +270 or higher, so your bankroll would be in nice shape had you bet Baltimore. The O's can't possibly be as bad as they were last season when they won only 47 games and lost a mind-numbing 53.5 units at the betting window. But they're still likely a 100-loss team, so tonight would be a good opportunity to fade them considering the relatively low price and the fact Sunday's game in NY ended later than scheduled due to a long rain delay. Toronto split its opening series with Detroit. They won the middle two games, both in shutout fashion. I had the Under in one of those and even though they split the four games, Blue Jays skipper Charlie Montoyo has to be ecstatic about his starting pitching, which did not yield a single run in 24 IP vs. the Tigers. The Blue Jays gave up just six runs overall in the four games and that number would have been only three were it not for extra innings. Sean Reid-Foley will look to continue the trend tonight. He's starting in place of Clayton Richard, so Baltimore is being somewhat caught off-guard here. The Orioles have never faced him before. Obviously, given how well the pitching performed, Toronto would have hoped to do better than a split w/ Detroit. The "blame" thus goes to the offense, which could only put up 12 runs in the four games. Still, that's twice as many as they allowed, so they should have won that series. Both losses came in extra innings. I expect the Jays lineup to get on track tonight against O's starter David Hess, who they are now familiar with after facing him three times in 2018. Baltimore's bullpen also remains a major question mark w/ no established closer. Toronto deserved better over the weekend and will "make up" for it here at the expense of what's still the worst team in MLB. 7* Toronto | |||||||
03-31-19 | Mets v. Nationals -136 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nationals have started 0-2 against the Mets, but I think they easily avoid the sweep Sunday. Washington was my pick for most improved team this year (for all of MLB!) as I think the loss of Bryce Harper is overstated (Juan Soto is better anyways). Granted, it doesn't look that way now, but so far they've also had to face Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. Most teams would go 0-2 against that pairing. The pitching matchup is more in their favor today and I really like the Nats to get that 1st win of 2019. Despite poor pitching, fielding and baserunning yday, the Nats still had a chance to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth when Matt Adams stepped to the plate w/ the bases loaded. This came after a shaky start from Stephen Strasburg, who allowed 3 ER in the first inning. The bullpen was even shakier (allowed 7 runs in final two frames) and you can add a key mistakes in the field (error, balk, passed ball, runner picked off 1st) to the laundry list of things Washington did wrong Saturday. Yet, they were still in position to tie the game up late. I imagine most of those mistakes will disappate and with that being the case, the results will obviously improve. Patrick Corbin, signed in the offseason, will get the nod today for the Nats. He's coming off a 2018 where he posted career bests in both ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.05) for Arizona. Considering those marks, you would have expected him to have a better won-loss record than 11-7 (17-16 TSR). Look for Corbin to a solid addition to what is already a strong starting rotation. The Mets will go w/ Zach Wheeler here and he's only 4-8 lifetime vs. Washington w/ a 4.37 ERA. I have respect for this Mets team, but I just can't see them sweeping the Nats here in the Nation's Capital. 10* Washington | |||||||
03-30-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): These teams have split the first two games of the season, each winning as a favorite. The Brew Crew won on Opening Day, 5-4, thanks to Lorenzo Cain robbing Jose Martinez of the potential game-tying home run for the final out. But give the Cards credit for bouncing back yday. They did so largely on the bat of Paul Goldschmidt, who hit three home runs. Milwaukee is the favorite for tonight's rubber match and I'll call for a continuation of the pattern we've seen thus far - that being the team favored to win, doing so. St. Louis will be going with a rookie starter here, that being Dakota Hudson, whose only previous big league experience has come as a reliever. In addition to making 26 relief appearances w/ the big league club last year, he was also their best pitcher in the minors. There's a lot of promise here, but this is a tough spot starting at Miller Park where the Brewers were very good last season. They ranked top 10 in both runs scored and allowed at home in 2018. Going from reliever to starter is quite the challenge, even if Hudson has done plenty of the latter in the minors and Spring Training. Milwaukee is 12-2 their last 14 during game 3 of a series. The Brew Crew counter Hudson w/ Brandon Woodruff, himself a former ace reliever now looking to find similar success as a starter. The difference is Woodruff has started previously at the big league level - 12 times. In the playoffs last year, as a reliever, Woodruff had 20 strikeouts in 12 1/3 IP while holding opponents to a .175 batting average. When priced between -125 and -175 on the ML at home, the Brewers are 41-14 the L3 seasons. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
03-29-19 | Rockies -155 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Colorado (7:10 ET): A lot of smart baseball people that I know really like this Rockies team this year. Colorado has made B2B playoff appearances and has its sights set on capturing the NL West pennant this year, which would be a first in franchise history. Two things have drastically altered the Rockies trajectory, both for the better. One is they now have better than average pitching. This is true for both the starters and the bullpen. Two is they are now able to win on the road. The last two seasons have seen them deliver winning records away from Coors Field. Winning again tonight in Miami shouldn't be much trouble. The Rockies beat the Marlins yday 6-3 and that's just the first of what should be many losses for Miami this season. Because of how strong the rest of the NL East is, the Marlins project to have one of the worst records in all of baseball this season, certainly in the National League. Even though they may never get over the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, it's not the pitching that's a problem on South Beach. Rather, it's a lack of offense. No team scored fewer runs last year and the projections for this year seem even worse. They managed just four hits yday. Kyle Freeland had no problem shutting Miami down Thursday and I expect the same from tonight's Rockies starter, German Marquez. Marquez was exceptional on the road last season, posting a 2.95 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. He also set the team record for strikeouts w/ 230. Miami starter Trevor Richards is improving and had a much better second half than first half LY. Plus, he looked sharp in Spring Training. But ultimately he'll be doomed by the lack of offense. Miami also didn't help itself in the field yday, committing two errors. It's not as if Colorado's lineup needs the help as we saw when they put six runs on the board yday, all in two innings. 8* Colorado | |||||||
03-28-19 | Astros -120 v. Rays | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
8* Houston (4:05 ET): I have to say that I'm a little shocked the Astros didn't open higher on the money line for Opening Day. While last season was viewed as "disappointing" by many, this team is still two years removed from winning the World Series and has won 204 regular season games the L2 seasons. The line especially seems low considering Justin Verlander will be on the mound Thursday. I know Tampa Bay was a 90-win team LY and expects to again be in the playoff race for 2019. But I'm not convinced they can match LY's production, particularly in the pitching department. By any objective measure, Verlander had a really strong 2018 campaign. But given his 2.65 ERA and 0.916 WHIP, one would have figured he would have finished w/ better than a 18-10 WL record. The Astros actually had a losing record at home w/ Verlander on the mound (9-12), which is really shocking, but they were 14-2 in his road starts. Verlander led MLB in WHIP last season and was 5th in ERA. He is 8-4 w/ a 3.42 ERA and one complete game in 18 career starts vs. TB. As a team, Houston again projects to be very strong in '19. A year ago, they outscored opponents by 263 runs, the best differential in all of baseball. With a limited payroll, the Rays need to be smarter than the competition and they were last year by employing the concept of the "opener." By design, they would exclusively use relievers in games, each going about an inning per so. The result was one of the fewest number of runs allowed per game in the league. No team allowed fewer in home games. For today, it's a "traditional starter" in Blake Snell on the mound. Snell, like Verlander, had himself a very good 2018. But I'm suspect of him being able to duplicate a 1.89 ERA and 0.974 WHIP as well as a 21-5 TSR. The Rays won Snell's final 10 starts last season, but they're not sneaking up on anybody in 2019. 8* Houston | |||||||
10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): The Dodgers are down 0-2 and in some real trouble in this series. But at least they're out of Fenway Park and back home where they have a much better chance at containing the Boston lineup. As I previously stated numerous times during the regular season and playoffs, no team in the National League did a better job at preventing runs at home than the Dodgers. For the year, they are giving up just 3.5 rpg at Chavez Ravine. In five playoff home games, they have allowed just seven runs TOTAL, giving up two or fewer in four. Remember that the Red Sox lose the DH from the lineup here and the pitcher will have to come up to bat. In a must win spot, I'll make my biggest bet of the year on Dodger Blue. Walker Buehler is the Game 3 starter for LA and the right man for the job as far as I'm concerned. I've consistently touted him throughout his rookie season. He's always available at a much cheaper price than staff counterpart Clayton Kershaw, which probably shouldn't surprise you, but consider Buehler has the better ERA and WHIP. I took him in the winner take all Game 7 vs. Milwaukee in the NLCS and he delivered w/ 4 2/3 strong innings. He allowed just one run and had seven strikeouts. Here at home, Buehler has been at his best. A 4-3 record in 13 starts (8-5 TSR) at Dodger Stadium is totally misleading when you consider he has a 1.67 ERA and 0.769 WHIP here. Rick Porcello gets the nod for the Red Sox and that's another thing I like as he represents a huge downgrade from Chris Sale and David Price, who started Games 1 and 2. Furthermore, Porcello is a righty, providing a solid platoon edge for the Dodgers' left-handed power lineup. (Both Sale and Price are lefties). This is just the 4th time since the start of September that the Dodgers have dropped B2B games. They haven't lost three in a row since mid-August and I don't see them doing so here w/ their World Series aspirations hanging in the balance. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -139 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:09 ET): With another win tonight, the reality of a 4th Red Sox World Series title win since '04 would be even more likely. I think they'll get it. Not even an additional run and a half was enough last night for Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, who failed to cash for me on the run line. It was a 5-4 game heading into the home half of the seventh, but Boston piled on three more runs to make it a pretty easy Game 1 victory. This despite a somewhat shaky effort from starter Chris Sale. Boston's homefield advantage is very real as they're now 60-26 at Fenway Park this season. They also have a 17-4 interleague record in 2018, which is nothing new as they're 47-14 vs. the NL since the start of the 2016 season. In five of the last eight games, the offense has scored 7+ runs. Much attention will be paid to Red Sox Game 2 starter David Price. He FINALLY picked up a postseason victory, the first of his career, last week in the close out game vs. Houston. It was a dominant performance as Price went six innings w/o allowing a run and gave up only three hits. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks. He'd previously gone 0-9 in 11 career playoff starts (1-10 TSR), but I believe winning that close out game in the LCS was a turning poing for him. Remember that Price had a very good year. He has a 24-9 TSR w/ a 3.68 ERA and 1.157 WHIP. Hyun-Jin Ryu goes here for the Dodgers and he's facing a tall task. With the Game 1 victory over Kershaw, Boston is now 15-5 vs. left-handed starters at Fenway Park this year. Like Kershaw, Ryu has never pitched here in Boston before. In fact, Ryu has never faced the Red Sox before in his career. It will be the best lineup he's seen all season, one that averages 5.7 runs per game at home. Ryu struggled his last time out too; allowing five runs in three innings at Milwaukee. That was his worst start in a month, but remember this Red Sox offense was able to score 29 runs in five games against the Astros pitching staff. They're just too much here at home. 8* Boston | |||||||
10-20-18 | Dodgers -107 v. Brewers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:09 ET): It's all come down to this in the NLCS; a winner-take-all Game 7 Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Dodgers failed in their first attempt to close out the Brewers, losing 7-2 last night as they were jumped on early and never recovered. The Brew Crew scored four runs in the first and that was all they needed. But even though this game takes place in Miller Park; I don't see the Dodgers failing twice. All season long, my read has been that they are clearly the top team in the National League. I'm not going to waver now. Over the past two months, there have been only two times that LA has dropped B2B games. I'll call for them to win Game 7 and move on to face Boston in the World Series. The Dodgers will start a rookie in the most important game of their season. But something else I've been saying all year is that rookie, Walker Buehler, is the best #2 in any rotation in baseball. You could even make the argument that Buehler even gave Clayton Kershaw a "run for his money" for who was the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation. Buehler had a slightly better ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.92) than Kershaw. While his numbers did dip on the road, I'm not overly concerned w/ that nor his two shaky performances in this postseason. Buehler will be taken out at the first sign of trouble (if there is one) and speaking of Kershaw, he is available tonight out of the bullpen, which is certainly a nice luxury to have. Milwaukee goes w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has certainly been their best starter in 2018. They also were able to give ace reliever Josh Hader the night off yesterday due to building such an early lead. Chacin beat Buehler in Game 3 out in LA and has not allowed a single run in two postseason starts (10 1/3 IP). But he was actually better on the road than at Miller Park this season. Home teams are actually below .500 all-time in Game 7's (55-56) and I would worry about this Brewers team lack of experience in the situation. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -139 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:39 ET): After "stealing" Game 1 at Fenway Park, the Astros now find themselves trailing in the ALCS, two games to one. They went down at home last night, 8-2, as the Red Sox poured it on late including a Jackie Bradley Jr grand slam. This is now the first time since the start of September that the Astros find themselves off B2B losses. They have not lost three in a row since a swoon in mid-August and there have only been six losing streaks of three or more games all season. I still believe the Astros are the better team here and will ride them in Game 4. Tonight is an interesting starting pitching matchup. Charlie Morton makes his first postseason start for Houston. This will be his first time pitching in two weeks and he's thrown all of four innings in the last month. Morton did go 15-3 in 30 starts in the regular season and finished strong w/ a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts. He faced Boston twice in the regular season, going 1-1. Ironically, the bad start was here at home, but that doesn't concern me. Even if it ends up being a short night, remember the Astros bullpen lead the league in ERA. I don't think Morton is going to allow much damage here. Boston goes w/ Rick Porcello, who was originally going to start Game 3, but had to be pushed back due to working Game 2 in a relief role. Like Morton, Porcello hasn't exactly thrown a lot of innings over the last month. The Boston bullpen has been very good in this series, but I see Porcello giving up some runs before they are able to "go there." Houston was 1 for 8 w/ RISP last night and I can't see that happening again. I think Porcello bouncing back and forth between being a reliever and starter may have an adverse effect on him and look for the Astros, who are "too good" to drop B2B games at home, to take advantage. 10* Houston | |||||||
10-16-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (9:09 ET): Well, the Dodgers are down 2-1 in the NLCS after being shut out at home last night, 4-0. Save for the ninth inning, they never really threatened as Jhoulys Chacin and four Milwaukee relievers combined to hold them to just five hits. It's the definition of a "must-win" scenario here in Game 4 for Dodger Blue and while the Brew Crew have won 13 of their last 14 games, I think the home team can do it. I can't see their offense getting shutdown in B2B games at home and the starting pitching matchup is more heavily tilted in their favor for Game 4 than it was in Game 3. Rich Hill starts tonight for the Dodgers. While the top of Milwaukee's lineup has given him some trouble through the years, Hill still posted a 1.50 ERA in two starts against them in the regular season. Both starts saw him last six innings and give up just one run. I'm banking on something similar tonight. Hill started the close out game in the LDS vs. Atlanta and while he was kind of shaky there (five walks), he did allow only two runs on four hits. The team has won each of the last six times Hill has started, often in lopsided fashion (outscored the opposition 65-18!) and he has a 1.47 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in the last three. He should be comfortable pitching at home. For the second time in four games, Gio Gonzalez gets the start for the Brewers. This illustrates just how thin their rotation really is. Gonzalez didn't last long in Game 1, going just two innings. The bullpen bailed him out in an eventual 6-5 win, but I don't see history repeating itself. Manny Machado crushed a home run off Gonzalez in Game 1, so that matchup is something to keep an eye on here. Gonzalez figures not to last long again tonight, but this time it could be more performance based than by design. His TSR on the road this year is just 5-11 w/ a 4.82 ERA and 1.414 WHIP. I look for the Dodgers to even this series up at two games apiece. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
10-16-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -130 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
8* Houston (5:09 ET): It appeared as if the Astros were destined to go up 2-0 in this best of seven ALCS when they took a 4-2 lead in the top of the third inning Sunday night. But it was not to be as the Red Sox quickly answered w/ three of their own and their bullpen was able to render Houston's starting pitching edge null and void. But my read on this series still hasn't changed as I view the Astros as the superior team here. They did their job in earning a split in the two games in Boston and now I believe they'll really start to assert their superiority here at Minute Maid Park. Remember that Sunday was the Astros first loss this postseason. Dallas Keuchel will get the start for the Astros in Game 3. It says something about their rotation (hint: it's really good!) when he's your #3 starter. Keuchel started the clincher in the ALDS at Cleveland and allowed just two runs in five innings. He has always pitched better at home than on the road. This year, the split was not quite as pronounced, but I still certainly trust him in this spot more than I do Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. Keuchel's one regular season start against Boston did not go so well, but it was in Boston. Since the start of July, the Astros are 12-6 in Keuchel starts. Not only is he working on extended rest here (4-0 TSR on 7+ days rest, btw), but the team is 10-1 off a loss since mid-August. The Red Sox rotation appears to be in a state of flux right now. Eovaldi only gets the call for Game 3 because Rick Porcello was used in relief Sunday. Ace Chris Sale has reportedly fallen ill and there couldn't be a worse time for that. David Price is a broken man in the playoffs. So a lot is resting on the arm of Eovaldi here. He was 6-7 w/ a 3.81 ERA in the regular season. He did pitch Game 3 of the LDS vs. the Yankees and was supported in an incredible way (Red Sox won 16-1!). Don't expect that to happen here though. What you can look for, however, is more lefties in AJ Hinch's lineup against the righty Eovaldi, who did not face Houston in the regular season. The Red Sox are just 2-5 in Eovaldi's last seven starts against teams w/ winning records. 8* Houston |
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Dan Kaiser | $545 |
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